Methodology

Betting 101 — the markets on every pick card

Every pick on this site is tagged with one of six market types. If you don't bet, here's the two-minute version — with each market's actual record across the corpus, because the honest lesson of 20,000 tracked picks is that none of these are money printers.

Spread

A bet on the margin. "Chiefs −3.5" wins only if the Chiefs win by 4 or more; "Jets +7.5" wins if the Jets lose by 7 or less (or win). The number exists to make both sides a coin flip. Corpus record: 5983-5830-228 (50.6% cash rate, -3.0% ROI) — better than a coin flip, and still underwater, because of the vig (explained in the Lab).

Total (over/under)

A bet on the combined score, either side of a number: "Over 44.5" needs 45+ total points. Corpus record: 2331-2177-98 — as close to a literal coin flip as 1,100+ picks can get, and it still runs -1.7% ROI. That gap between "won half" and "made money" is the vig, the house's cut baked into every price.

Moneyline

A bet on who wins, no margin involved. The price does the work: "Norway +300" pays 3 units per 1 risked because Norway probably loses; a −300 favorite risks 3 to win 1. Corpus record: 2601-2845-69 — losing more often than winning, yet -4.9% ROI, because underdog wins pay more than favorite losses cost. Moneylines are why cash rate alone can't rank anyone (our leaderboard ranks by units for the same reason).

Prop

A bet on a player's stat line, not the game: "Mitchell over 27.5 points." Props are priced in thinner markets with wider vig than game lines, and the corpus shows it: 2700-4154-12, -8.6% ROI.

Parlay

Several bets chained into one ticket: the payout multiplies, and every leg must win. One loss kills the ticket — which is why books advertise them so cheerfully. The corpus record is the clearest anti-endorsement on this site: 495-1071-1 (31.6% cash rate), -18.6% ROI. Long odds aren't the same as good odds.

Futures

A season-long outcome settled months later: championship winners, win totals, awards. Your money is locked up the whole time, and the corpus runs 1264-4049-10 (23.8% cash rate, -6.2% ROI) — most "who wins it all" calls simply lose.

The vocabulary on a pick card

Odds are quoted American-style: −110 means risk 1.10 to win 1; +140 means risk 1 to win 1.40. Line is the number attached to a spread, total, or prop. Units is profit measured in bet-sizes — every pick here is graded as 1 unit at the quoted odds (or the converted prediction-market entry price; −110 only when neither was stated). A push lands exactly on the line and refunds; a void is a bet that couldn't be graded fairly and counts for nothing. The green CLV chips compare a pick's number to where the market closed — the Lab explains why that's the measure sharps care about.

How picks are captured

We pull each show's published episode audio, transcribe it, and use a language model to find genuine betting recommendations — the segments where a host actually says "here's my play." Jokes, hypotheticals, and recaps of someone else's pick are excluded.

Every pick has to survive scrutiny before it counts — most of it automated, some of it human. Each pick carries the verbatim quote it came from, and it only publishes after passing checks that the quote actually exists in the transcript at the stated moment, that the selection, line, and odds follow from what was said, and that a second, independent model pass agrees the host genuinely committed to the bet rather than musing about it. Picks the system isn't confident about are held back until a person reviews them. A human has audited thousands of picks across repeated full-corpus sweeps — and the whole corpus has been re-checked against the transcripts more than once — but with picks numbering in the tens of thousands, we won't pretend human eyes have read every single one. If you find one that doesn't hold up against its own receipt, that's a bug, and we want to know.

The ▶ button on a pick card plays the episode at the moment of the pick, streamed from the show's own public feed — we never host their audio. One honest caveat: podcast feeds insert ads server-side, and the ad load changes between listens, so the drop-in point can drift a little from the exact sentence. The player's ±15s buttons exist for precisely that hunt. The quote and timestamp themselves come from the transcript each pick was graded against, so they stay accurate even when the feed's ad load shifts.

How picks are graded

• Spread — the team's final margin is compared to the line. Land exactly on the number and it's a push.
• Total — combined final score vs. the over/under. Exact number pushes.
• Moneyline — did the picked team win the game.
• Props, futures, parlays — graded by hand for now; they're flagged rather than auto-settled.

Final scores come from ESPN. A pick stays pending until its game is final. A disclosed wager whose recorded terms can never establish an outcome is retained only in the internal audit as ungraded; it is not published or included in any site statistic.

Units & ROI

We assume a flat 1 unit staked on every pick. A win pays out at the odds quoted on air (e.g. +150 returns 1.5 units; −110 returns 0.91); a loss is −1 unit; pushes and voids are 0. When a host didn't state odds or a prediction-market probability, we assume standard −110 juice. A probability-priced pick uses its converted entry price and never this fallback. ROI is net units divided by the number of settled picks. Split-stake Asian handicaps can produce a half-win or half-loss: the record follows the net result, while units credit or debit only the half of the stake that did not push.

Prediction-market prices

A percentage on a prediction-market pick is its entry price: a 47% contract costs 47 cents per dollar paid if the selected outcome wins. We show 47% (≈ +113) so it is comparable to American odds. The number in parentheses is our conversion, not an exact sportsbook price quoted by the host. We also insert these labeled conversions beside explicit percentages inside displayed quotes, including spelled-out percentages, while retaining the original stored quote. A quote can discuss several outcomes; its annotations convert each explicit percentage, while the headline identifies this pick's entry price.

With p = percentage / 100, the American-odds formula is:

• Below 50%: +100 × (1 − p) / p.
• At 50%: +100.
• Above 50%: −100 × p / (1 − p).

We round to the nearest whole number, with exact ties rounded away from zero, and use the same rounded price for unit returns. For example: 36% → +178, 47% → +113, 57% → −133, and 60% → −150. Fees are excluded. These picks never use the missing-odds −110 fallback.

Polymarket is named only when the source is attributed; otherwise the card says “prediction market.” An on-air entry price and a later market snapshot are separate observations. The card shows the observation basis and time when known. An episode publication time is only a date reference, not an exact market capture; when the capture time is unknown, we say so.

Prediction-market futures stay pending until their specified contract outcome is final. Settlement must follow the exact market and selected outcome, including Yes/No terms and resolution rules. Before an external market response can establish settlement, we need matching market and contract identifiers. Available contract links and identifiers appear in the card's “About this price” control. These prices do not change the sportsbook closing-line comparisons described below.

Closing line value

CLV compares a stated entry line or price with an independently captured pregame quote. Positive values mean the quoted number was better than the later market number. This is evidence about price movement, not proof of betting skill or future profit.

• Timing: headline rates, scatterplots, counterfactuals and steam rankings use audited observations within 15 minutes of the event start. Observations 15–60 minutes out, older observations, and records without timing evidence are retained and labeled separately. Timing uses the oldest known contributing quote update; if updates were unavailable, it uses snapshot time. A snapshot is not a guarantee of an executable price.
• Source: the named bookmaker where available, then a configured house book, then consensus. Each card identifies the source and snapshot timestamp. The Lab separately compares a common cohort against consensus, DraftKings and FanDuel.
• Entry evidence: numeric CLV requires a stated line for point markets or a stated price for moneylines. A missing entry remains missing. Legacy morning-of-game proxies are excluded from headline rates and steam rankings.
• Denominators: captured quotes, calculable CLV and primary non-flat observations are different counts. Beat rate is beat ÷ (beat + chased); flats are reported separately. Standalone aggregates exclude parlay legs and prediction markets. Coverage by show, league and period appears on the coverage report.
• Units: points for spreads, totals and props; American-odds cents for moneylines, kept separate. Moneyline steam is ranked by implied-probability movement. Different point markets have different scales, so their pooled mean is descriptive.
• Counterfactual: the same primary-evidence settled picks are regraded at their entry and closing numbers. Unknown spread/total juice is held at the same convention on both sides to isolate line movement; ambiguous regrades are excluded.
• Limits: supported historical game markets begin June 2020 and props May 2023. Futures, derivatives, unsupported props, ambiguous event matches and inconsistent kickoff times cannot supply ordinary closing CLV. Coverage is uneven and multiple picks can concern the same event.
• Polymarket: exact contract histories are reported separately in The Lab. Quoted entries, comparison-only histories and interim futures movement remain distinct. Provider history is not asserted executable bid/ask data; fees and liquidity are unknown.

What we track

• UnSportsmanLike with Evan, Canty and Michelle (ESPN Radio) — Play of the Day
• Sharp or Square (iHeartPodcasts and The Volume) — Full Episode
• What's Wright? with Nick Wright (iHeartPodcasts and The Volume) — Full Episode
• The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast (Playmaker and iHeartPodcasts) — Full Episode
• The Action Network Sports Betting Podcast (The Action Network and iHeartPodcasts) — Full Episode
• Get Up (ESPN) — Full Episode
• The Daily Juice - BettingPros (BettingPros and iHeartPodcasts) — Full Episode
• The Herd with Colin Cowherd (iHeartPodcasts and The Volume) — Full Episode
• Locked On Bets - Daily Sports Betting Podcast to Get The Edge (Locked On Podcast Network) — Full Episode
• You Better You Bet (Audacy and Westwood One) — Full Episode

Disclaimer

This site is unaffiliated with any show, network, or sportsbook, and exists for entertainment. It is not betting advice. Records reflect what was said on air, captured as accurately as we can.