Default: audited quotes within 15 minutes of the start, compared with stated entry lines or prices. Explore older or unverified observations · Coverage
When the market moves toward a pick after it airs, the money agreed with it. The 25 biggest spread and total moves in each direction across 3,862 captured point-market picks, and the 25 biggest moneyline moves across 463 captured prices — the calls the market chased, and the ones it ran from.
“Love the over, though. [29:29] If that's true and there's not going to be snow and not going to be crazy shit happening during the game, [29:33] take that value and take the over. [29:35] I already grabbed it at 41.5, 41. [29:38] It's up to 42.5 in a bunch of books. [29:40] Key number, I'd still grab it there.”
BUF 31, CLE 23 — Bills beat Browns 31-23, combined 54 points, over 42.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“The Chiefs plus one versus the Packers Lee are you sensing a little bit of overreaction in this game a little how about a lot the overnight line on Sunday night before [12:12] the Chiefs played on Monday was two and a half points that uh they were going to be favored [12:19] now it's swung three and a half points and Green Bay is a one point favorite just like the overreaction [12:25] Last week, Green Bay beat an Arizona team that wasn't all that. [12:29] I mean, they didn't come to play. [12:32] I think they woke up Kansas City. [12:34] All the talk we're hearing this week other than the trade deadline [12:37] and the rug situation is, is Kansas City finished? [12:40] So I think they're going to be motivated. [12:43] Their pass rush was good against the Giants. [12:45] They had three sacks in that game, could have had many more. [12:48] I think they're going to be on to the Green Bay offense. [12:53] They're going to be fired up. [12:54] It's going to be at home, which is a big advantage. [12:56] It's great to see two great quarterbacks go after each other. [13:00] So Kansas City's healthy here. [13:02] They've been disrespected here. [13:04] Overreaction. [13:05] When you overreact, the public is just getting destroyed. [13:09] These Vegas books and also the offshore sports books [13:13] and the different state sports books are cleaning up this year. [13:17] We're not going to fall for the trap here. [13:19] We're taking Kansas City here. [13:21] They're going to move to 5-4. [13:22] or wrong team favorite number three, Kansas City.”
KC 13, GB 7 — Kansas City Chiefs beat Green Bay Packers 13-7 (Rodgers-less Packers) on Nov 7, 2021; a 6-point margin covers Chiefs +1 (ESPN).
“I'm going to go ahead and take the Grizzlies, plus four. The Phoenix Suns are 7-0 against the spread and 7-0 here in this bubble. If the Mavericks play, and they have their seed already locked up, if the Dallas Mavericks play in the second half, Luka Doncic and Christoph Przingis, I'm going to pull my hair out. There's no need, there's no reason. They should not be playing, not at all. It's five and a half. I'm laying the five and a half here with the Phoenix Suns to go 8-0 and 8-0 against the spread here in the bubble. Dallas has nothing to play for. There's no reason for them to play hard here. Suns minus five and a half. Then we're going Spurs and the Jazz. The Spurs are laying seven and I know the numbers start to go up. You got plus numbers with the Grizzlies at plus four. The Suns are laying five and a half. The Spurs are now laying seven against the Utah Jazz because Utah clinched the 16. They're playing the Nuggets. I mean, they know they're playing the Nuggets. So this game means nothing. It means nothing. So we know that Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley are not playing. They were ruled out. How many other players are going to get ruled out? I don't know, but they're punting on this game. It doesn't matter. Utah wants to stay healthy. They're giving the game to the Spurs. It's just a matter of how many points will the Spurs wind up winning by. So we're going to lay the seven with the San Antonio Spurs. These are all at minus 110. We're laying the minus seven here. So plus four with the Grizzlies, minus five and a half with the Suns, minus seven with the Spurs, and the Portland Trailblazers are the biggest favorite of the day, ending the day against the Brooklyn Nets. And I'll be honest, I'm a little concerned about what may happen if Portland doesn't need this game, but I think they're going to play hard. I think you'll see Dame go off for another big night, and I'm going to lay the nine points.”
119-106 — Memphis defeated Milwaukee 119-106 (ESPN).
“the start of the 2023 season one of our picks we're running back we went with the browns game under last week let's start with the browns game under this week 49ers at browns under 42 and a half.”
Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored won outcome.
“I'm betting Thunder minus two and a half at minus 110.”
Oklahoma City won the 2025 NBA Finals over Indiana 4 games to 3 (Game 7: Thunder 103, Pacers 91), a 1-game series margin that falls short of the -2.5 games handicap. (OKC won series 4-3 (Game 7: Thunder 103, Pacers 91).)
“I bet the Thunder at 10. That's out to 16.”
OKC 125, MIL 96 — Thunder beat the Bucks 125-96 (margin +29), covering -10.
“You can get Minnesota minus five and a half right now. Why would we not take that? Like they're playing for real.”
MIN 16, GB 3 — Vikings beat Packers 16-3; Minnesota won by 13, covering the -5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I took the three and a half with the Golden State for fear and have for no real margin there.”
GS 109, HOU 106 — Warriors beat Rockets 109-106 on Apr 28, 2025 (ESPN); Golden State's +3.5 spread covers by a 3-point margin.
“i bet some vikings minus six which was like scary knowing that you could be betting max prosner minus six”
16-3 — Vikings beat Packers 16-3, a 13-point margin that covers -6 (ESPN box score).
“I'm going with the Minnesota Vikings minus six at home against the Green Bay Packers.”
Independent verification agrees: Minnesota Vikings margin +13 vs line -6; covers.
“I took the Ravens under against the Steelers for this coming week. [40:30] I took that on the look ahead at 42.”
Pittsburgh beat Baltimore 16-13, so Under 42 won as stored (NFL).
“As we transition into Survivor, which deserves a little bit of conversation today, let's recap. Panthers plus four. Well, Chiefs is in the contest to pick, but that's not what the line is anymore. Panthers plus four, Niners plus one. We still like the Bengals minus two and a half. Take the Eagles plus two and a half because there's whispers about Herbert's health.”
SF 17, ARI 31 — Cardinals beat 49ers 31-17; San Francisco lost by 14, busting +1 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Minnesota. They're visiting. Green Bay is visiting Minnesota. It opened at five and a half. We said, grab it. We expected this line to go up. That's what happened. It's moved up to six and a half. Really, this is about, we still don't know who's going to be playing quarterback. we expect it to be Malik Willis for the Packers. Matt LaFleur said Malik Willis could have come back into the game on Sunday night. If the record, if the score was a little bit closer, he's also said they've learned their lesson from last season when they didn't have much at stake in the final game of the year. They lost Christian Watson for the year up for most of this year to a bad injury. And they actually Jordan Lovager, at his hand so we know they're probably going to arrest a lot of starters in this game no matter who's playing quarterback and we also know that this number has moved to six and a half even though you know a preponderance of the tickets are coming in on green bay so it's professionals that are moving the money um we're sticking with minnesota and the brian flores defense here”
MIN 16, GB 3 — Vikings beat Packers 16-3; Minnesota won by 13, covering the -6.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“We're going to take the 148 and a half open at 147, 148 and a half. Both DraftKings and FanDuel both have this Creighton and Marquette over 148 and a half for 1.1 units.”
72-67 — Marquette beat Creighton 72-67, so over 148.5 lost (ESPN scoreboard).
“next up Grizzlies at the Kings, I'm taking the Kings here. Plus two is a small home dog over on points, bet”
133-100 — Sacramento beat Memphis 133-100, so the Kings covered +2 (ESPN box score).
“I think all signs point to Oklahoma as the player. I took the three.”
OU 55, FLA 20 — Oklahoma beat Florida 55-20, covering -3.
“we bet Kansas City on Sunday night, Monday morning at plus two and a half.”
KC 27, HOU 19 — Chiefs beat Texans 27-19; Kansas City's +8 margin covers the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I have not been able to check bet three six five. Let me see if I can get an update here. They're probably plus one right now for the Chiefs. That's what think most American books are out right now. Okay. So yeah. Plus one plus one and a half Chiefs. Yep. Yep. You're exactly right. So it's coming down off of that news. I bettered at two and a half yesterday.”
HOU 19, KC 27 — Chiefs beat Texans 27-19 on Dec 21, 2024; Kansas City +2.5 wins outright and covers (ESPN box score).
“Chiefs are plus two and a half right now against the Texans. By the way, it's moved down from three and a half when we started the show. So that's the book saying as Carson wants in their mind. Yep. But we just talked about that. Their X rays came back negative. Grab the two and a half right now. It's another position we could take out if we want to. But even if it's Carson Wentz,”
HOU 19, KC 27 — Chiefs beat Texans 27-19 on Dec 21, 2024; Kansas City +2.5 wins outright and covers (ESPN box score).
“I think when we have under seven from a number perspective at home, I think we have to take the thunder. I think they're begging us to do it. I think we've got to take it. Thunder minus six and a half.”
Verified won result (ESPN scoreboard).
“So I'm going to go with the Vikings. I don't care. Seven and a half lay it. This is just one team not trying versus one team trying.”
16-3 — Vikings beat Packers 16-3, a 13-point margin that covers -7.5 (ESPN box score).
“Indy at New England, really interesting game. The line opened at Colts one and a half. It moved quickly. For the record, I bettered at two and a half.”
IND 25, NE 24 — Colts beat Patriots 25-24; Indianapolis won outright by 1, covering the +2.5 spread (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“That's what I got it at, falcons plus two and a half.”
ATL 29-10 IND — Falcons beat the Colts 29-10; Falcons +2.5 covers easily (ESPN).
“I'll I'll bet Cleveland already took the seven and a half. I'll bet the eight.”
27-0 — Cleveland Browns shut out Arizona Cardinals 27-0, a 27-point margin that covers -8 (ESPN box score).
“I'm laying the two and a half points with the Cincinnati Bengals.”
NFL official results confirm the stored outcome.
“I found some Colorado State plus 10 against Colorado. I all in on Colorado State”
35-43 — Colorado beat Colorado State 43-35 in 2OT on Sep 16, 2023; CSU lost by 8, covering the +10 spread (ESPN box score).
“I mean, don't you want to bet Tennessee at three and a half? Or do you just pass the game? I bet Tennessee.”
38-14 — The Colts beat the Titans 38-14 on Oct 26, 2025; Tennessee lost by 24, well outside the +3.5 line, so it busts.
“but also play a Seattle minus nine and a half, plus 215.”
Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.
“We love the Vikings here. Big balls, bet of the week. Big balls, bet of the week. So much pushback from our followers. Oh my God. I get it. People hate betting Kirk in primetime. We know we have to take this number. It's so inflated. Can I just say one thing? I think those prime time, there are systems that matter, that have data sets that are huge. There are gimmicks. This feels like a fucking gimmick. It is glaring though. I got to look it up because people keep posting it. But I think it was like two and nine against the spread in prime time games. Something crazy like that. But it's too big of a number in a matchup. And especially with Green Bay is the public darling. We knew – I'm on some chalk this week. I'm not going to lie. I actually flipped from the Cardinals to the Cowboys. I'm on the Cowboys now. The more tape I've watched, the more numbers I've looked into. This one I haven't changed. If anything, I feel even better about my position on the Vikings. The fact that Dalvin Cook is now back for this Vikings team, his run style is perfect for a matchup against this Green Bay run defense. They hate running backs with speed and power that go up the middle. That's one of the worst things they're defending Green Bay this year. That exactly what Dalvin Cook does He is a man with speed and power So looking at this across the board Chad just talked about it It moves up to seven Grab that seven if you can I worried about by the time you hear this we be back down to six and a half which still is fine I still happy taking a six and a half Just a pro versus shows game Like Chad talked about it. It's a primetime game. Everyone, all their money line parlays, all their teasers, everything is going to end Sunday night tied to this game. We're getting two, three points of value just because of that. The bookmakers, they had to pump this lineup just to, you know, factor in all that money coming in on those money line parlays and teasers so as long as you're getting six and a half i still love this number why did you flip on the cardinals and the cowboys”
GB 37, MIN 10 — Green Bay beat Minnesota 37-10, so the Vikings' 27-point loss busts the +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“the vikings totally disappointed us speaking of what's that speak for yourself i was on the rams disappointed us in the fact that the the right number on that it should have been a touchdown a field goal game and everyone should have won their bets they should have everyone on the vikings at three and a half and the rams at two and a half they should have everyone should have won the vikings fucked it up six and a half point dogs against the packers feels like a good number though. I look at that and I'm not going to be overreactive to the Vikings at the end of the year. You mentioned the Packers and they're against the spread number this year. They are due for regression Obviously them and the Cowboys teams generally will be 500 or a little bit better or a little bit worse against the spread the packers and cowboys like combined or i don know like i think they lost six games total against the spread so and the packers you know this browns game was one of them but it feels like this is another spot where it could be a close game 100 the fact that we're the number one biggest podcast sports gambling podcast in the world i can't make this my simon says bet because I want to do it with the Vikings, but it's Kirk in prime time. We love this number. I mean, this is, you bet this every time. Divisional matchup this late in the season. These teams aren't that different. I know the record, you're looking on paper and go, well, the Green Bay is going to be the number one seed in the NFC. Vikings aren't going to make the playoffs. The Vikings were fucked from the get-go. We talked all preseason. That was the stinkiest win total all offseason. It was just sitting there at nine, nine and a half. Some books moved it back down to eight and a half. They were never going to hit that over. It felt like the fix was in coming into the year with this Vikings team. So to me, this is the typical everyone's off the Vikings. Everyone's going to be in on Green Bay. This number should be four, three and a half. We're getting three points. It could even go up to seven again. We'll get back at seven. That's even better. We love the Vikings here. It just sucks it's a primetime game. This is one o'clock in the afternoon in Green Bay. I'd be all in. This would be probably my biggest bet of the week. But because it's prime time, I got to remember it's Kirk Cousins in prime time. And historically, he always lets us down. So I had to bet this number. But just the fact that it's in prime time, I won't bet as much.”
GB 37, MIN 10 — Green Bay beat Minnesota 37-10, so the Vikings' 27-point loss busts the +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Bears minus 6.5 plus 250 on the outline.”
Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Bears -6.5 (alt)” settled lost.
“[1:55:43] on a pick-em pretty much, [1:55:45] minus one and a half against anybody in college [1:55:47] football, I'm going to take that.”
UGA 30, TEX 15 — Georgia beat Texas 30-15 on October 19, 2024, a margin of +15 that covers -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“Let's start things off with the blowout special, a little NBA action. [3:36] The Denver Nuggets against my Golden State Warriors. [3:39] The Nuggets, 35-16. [3:42] The Warriors, 26-25. [3:43] 25. It's first versus seventh. [3:46] FanDuel.com live for this one. [3:48] The Nuggets minus 11.5 versus the Warriors. [3:50] Thoughts on this one, Lee? [3:51] Wow. I mean, the playoffs started today during the play-in tournament. [3:55] Golden State. Can you believe that? [3:56] Wow. [3:56] Golden State would be seventh. Phoenix would be eighth. [4:01] I think eventually things are going to work out. [4:03] They'll be in both teams in the top six. [4:05] But right now, it's not happening. [4:08] Golden State played a couple nights ago in Minnesota. [4:11] And what happened Well lost in overtime and only scored four points in overtime I have a real good feeling we going to see three players sit here [4:22] and three big ones. [4:24] I think Klay Thompson is going to sit. [4:26] I think Andrew Wiggins is going to sit. [4:29] And I also think Steph Curry is going to sit. [4:31] So even if two of the three sit, I think they're in trouble here. [4:35] Hey, have they pulled off some miraculous games? [4:38] Yeah, it happens 20%, 30% of the time. [4:40] their bench guys come out and play hard and play great, [4:44] but they're going to be up against it here. [4:47] And people don't realize this, [4:49] but the Denver Nuggets have dominated this series. [4:53] Yep. [4:54] They've covered eight of the last 12 there. [4:57] Eight, three, and one against the spread. [4:59] You talk about some guys that are hot, they're loaded, [5:03] their top two guys are just hitting everything left and right. [5:07] Jokic, yep. [5:08] Well, he's dominating the league. [5:10] 26.5 points per game, 11.7 boards per game, and 11.8 assists per game. [5:18] I don't think we've ever seen that from a big guy here. [5:22] Jamal Murray, what has he done? [5:25] Last game he scored 32 and also had seven triples. [5:29] Aaron Gordon even had 15 points. [5:32] He was plus 22 in his net rating in that game. [5:34] So this is a team that's red hot. [5:37] They love to send a message to Golden State here. [5:41] Blowout special on Thursday here in the NBA. [5:45] Your Golden State Warriors are going down in a big-time way here. [5:49] I'm taking the Denver Nuggets. [5:51] This could be a 25, 30-point burial. [5:53] Oh, there it is. [5:54] That's a massive blowout. [5:55] And, yeah, you sit guys like that, like a Klay Thompson, [5:59] Steph Curry, and Andrew Wiggins. [6:00] That's going to happen. [6:01] Oh, and another thing here, I think this line's going to go up. [6:05] And if we hear of at least two, maybe all three out, [6:09] this line could balloon up to 13.5, 14, maybe even 15 points. [6:14] So it was a benefit of listening to the show as early as possible. [6:19] If you're listening in your lunch break, get this game in now. [6:22] You want to play it as soon as possible. [6:24] Boom, there it is right there. [6:25] Again, FanDuel.com, live for this one. [6:27] The Nuggets minus 11.5 versus the Warriors. [6:30] Get on it ASAP.”
DEN 134, GSW 117 — Denver crushed Golden State 134-117, a 17-point margin that clears the -11.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Grizzlies, minus one and a half for Sacramento, with the total being 245 and a half. Break this one down for us, Lee. What's your thoughts? Okay, here's what's crazy. Every single game, all seven games in the NBA at FanDuel, all the totals are 230 or higher. So not a whole lot of defense expected tonight here. And here's a game where you got Memphis. They had won 13 straight. And then on Friday night, they blew the lead to the L.A. Lakers, lost 122 to 121. Key turnover with 10 seconds to go in that game. I think cost them the game. And then they lost at Phoenix last night by two. So they lost two very close games. On the other side, Sacramento's coming together. This is a team that had won six straight until they lost at home to Philadelphia, 129-127. But let's look closer into the game. In that game, Sacramento, I thought they should have won. They had a big lead in that game. And what happened? Sixers, even without Joel Embiid and James Harden, came back. Sacramento gave up 70. That's right. Not seven. Not 17 or 27. 70 points in the paint and committed 15 turnovers. So they're going to have to cut down on that if they want to have a chance to win this game. John Morant, I think he's going to have a big game. Back in the two games meeting so far this year with the Kings, scored 69 points in the last two games. Back on New Year's Day, Grizzlies beat the Kings 118-108. John Morant had 35 points on 13-23 shooting, 8-10 from the free throw line. here. Also, Stephen Adams, 13 offensive rebounds. That's not right. Not 13 rebounds, 13 offensive rebounds, and finished with 23 on the night here to have a double-double in that game here. I just think the Grizzlies, the public is thinking, oh, maybe fatigue after playing last night. This is a team that really has all the components. You look at building a team, really good point guard. Their forwards are active. They score and they defend, and they have a center that rebounds. I think they might end up taking it this year and get to the finals. They're getting closer and closer. They want to have that home court advantage, and this is a big game here. They want to send a statement here. We're going to go with a level two lock on Monday here, take the Memphis Grizzlies here over the Sacramento Kings.”
SAC 133, MEM 100 — Sacramento beat Memphis 133-100; Grizzlies lost outright, busting the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“the Vikings are going to have a shot. So I'm going to take the seven plus 250 on the money line. I'm”
NFL official results confirm the stored outcome.
“So I would take OKC laying the 14 and a half. It's a $100 to make 90. That is the play of the day.”
OKC 136, LAL 120 — Thunder beat Lakers 136-120; Oklahoma City's +16 margin covers -14.5 (ESPN box score).
“fifth overall of the week 16 weekend six pack i'm going with the baltimore ravens plus two and a half”
NFL official results confirm the stored outcome.
“going with the Buffalo Bills, minus one and a half against the Miami Dolphins.”
BUF 56, MIA 26 — Buffalo beat Miami 56-26, covering Bills -1.5.
“And we're going way over the 138. So I'm going to go over for a half a unit, Wisconsin and Rhode Island at minus 110.”
Wisconsin 73-Rhode Island 62 — Wisconsin beat Rhode Island 73-62, so the game total stayed below the over selection (ESPN schedule).
“For my first pick and the second overall pick of the week nine Sunday six pack, I'm going with the New Orleans Saints plus five and a half at Tampa Bay.”
TB 3, NO 38 — Verified against an ESPN box score: TB 3, NO 38; the recorded outcome matches. (Antonio Brown 3 receptions for 31 receiving yards)
“nerdy name army over 49 and a half”
49-14 — Notre Dame beat Army 49-14 on Nov 23, 2024 (ESPN), well over the total.
“I'm also going to lay the one and a half with Alabama.”
ARIZ 96, ALA 75 — Arizona beat Alabama 96-75; Alabama's margin of -21 busts -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“i bet clemson minus three in this game”
FSU 31, CLEM 24 — Florida State beat Clemson 31-24 in overtime on 9/23/2023; Clemson lost outright, so Clemson -3 busts (ESPN final).
“So that is the only bet that I've made for Clemson is three minus one ten in the look ahead market on their game hosting Florida State.”
Florida State 31, Clemson 24 — Florida State beat Clemson 31-24 in overtime on Sept 23, 2023; Clemson lost outright and busted the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Wise guys are loving the Bengals and you're kind of on the Ravens here. Yeah. Fuck those guys. We'll keep chasing that dream. Again this is not going to be in our contest because the Ravens has just been burning us never ending So I just going to take the value They play close games this is divisional matchup late in the year i told people in early december i take the dog i take the under 90 of these divisional games that's just what i'm going to do it's been working i mean we've already seen it since the calendar's turn it's been a lot of unders divisionally it's been a lot of dogs divisionally so i'm waiting especially to if i'm going to put more in it i kind of do want it to be Lamar again I love what this backup has done I watched the film he literally was staring down if it wasn't Andrews it was Hollywood Brown and that was it he would do two reads and then you'd take off so I love it I love his athleticism but I would just feel better with Lamar coming back so I'm taking the three now and hoping that Lamar comes back to really give you the value because”
CIN 41, BAL 21 — Cincinnati beat Baltimore 41-21, so the Ravens' 20-point loss busts the +3 (ESPN box score).
“Let's back the Cleveland Cavaliers here, minus a two and a half on the road at Toronto”
TOR 110, CLE 99 — Raptors beat Cavaliers 110-99, an 11-point margin, so Cleveland -2.5 did not cover (ESPN recap).
“Official plays, Kentucky plus two and a half. Florida minus one and a half on the road against Mississippi State.”
Verified won result (ESPN scoreboard).
“The Bears are winning this game, and they're winning this game by more than a field goal. And so, now, if Jaden plays, I would feel totally differently. But this line says Vegas does not think Jaden is playing. The Bears would not be 2.5-point road favorites against Chicago if Jaden were playing. In fact, I think the Bears would not be 2.5-road favorites against Washington if Jaden were playing. In fact, I think it would be Washington by 2 instead of Chicago by 2.5.”
WSH 18, CHI 15 — Commanders beat Bears 18-15; Chicago's -3 margin fails to cover the -2.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Give me the bears. By the way, let's take the under 40 and a half while we're at it because that line's gonna move move down too. Yeah.”
CHI 28, DET 13 — Bears beat the Lions 28-13, a combined 41 points, just over the 40.5 total (ESPN scoreboard).
“And I also want Minnesota minus the two and a half.”
DET 34, MIN 23 — Lions beat Vikings 34-23; Vikings failed to cover -2.5 (margin -11) (ESPN box score).
“the betonline.ag line for this one. We're going to roll Tampa Bay regulation money line, minus 120 versus the New York Islanders. What are your thoughts on this one? Yeah, well, the lightning loss game one of this series, and I held off on the game because both teams had long layoffs. And sometimes, you know, you get a great performance. Sometimes you get an uneven performance. And Tampa had just beaten a much more exciting opponent in Carolina, but the Islanders pretty much dominated game one the other night. Steve Stamkos, the Lightning captain, turned a puck over that led to the game-winning goal, and he called himself out for it after the game as well. So the Lightning have not lost consecutive playoff games since 2019 when they were swept by the Blue Jackets in the first round. They know how to bounce back, and they know they can't go to Long Island down 0-2. I think they seal things up here in this one and split the home games to start things off. So I think they get on the winning track here and eat it up one-on-one. Tampa Bay Lightning, regulation money line, minus 120, blowout special.”
4-2 — Tampa Bay beat the Islanders 4-2 in Game 2 of the semifinals, so the Lightning regulation moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“Steelers four and a half and I'll take the Moneyline two plus 180.”
13-10 — Cleveland beat Pittsburgh 13-10, so Steelers moneyline lost (ESPN Week 11 scoreboard).
“Tampa Bay, Moneyline, minus 146 versus Toronto. [8:06] Break this one down for us, Lee. [8:08] Yeah, there's only one playoff series matchup that we already know in this year's postseason, [8:13] and it's going to be these two teams here, the Lightning against the Maple Leafs. [8:17] So we have a bit of a preview in this one. [8:20] and the situation of motivation all favor one side. [8:23] Tampa Bay is the one with the most maybe well-run organizations in the NHL. [8:30] They've been to the Stanley Cup three straight years. [8:33] They're the class of the league, and they were expected to contend again this season, [8:37] but they've struggled in the second half. [8:40] They're just three and seven in the last ten games largely [8:42] because they've been set in the playoff positioning, I believe, [8:47] and they've been able to rest guys. [8:49] But don't you think this team is going to come out flying tonight to give their fans a bit of a sign of things to come? [8:56] I do. [8:57] The other thing in this, Toronto doesn't want injuries before this big matchup. [9:02] They've had some good injury luck this season, but it has hit them recently in the goaltending room. [9:07] Matt Murray is out with an injury, and the Leafs played last night against the Panthers, [9:12] and it was an end-to-end battle back and forth that wasn't settled until the end of overtime. [9:19] So I think they really expended a lot of energy, [9:23] even though they're just flying about a 40, 45-minute flight to Tampa. [9:27] I think it's a tough, tough back-to-backer here. [9:31] They could be starting a minor league goalie on a professional triad in this one. [9:35] That's what I believe is going to happen against a ticked-off Lightning team [9:39] trying to gear up for the first-round playoff matchup. [9:42] Give me the home team here. [9:44] You're going to be able to turn this one off by early in the third period here. [9:47] two 4-1 bolts here. [9:49] So we're going to go with blowout special number two, [9:53] Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline minus 146 over the Toronto Maple Leafs.”
TOR 4, TB 3 — Maple Leafs beat the Lightning 4-3 on April 11, 2023, as call-up goalie Joseph Woll made 46 saves; Tampa Bay's moneyline pick loses (ESPN).
“I went ahead and jammed in some Atlanta Falcons money line at minus 105”
ATL 34, WSH 27 — Atlanta beat Washington 34-27; the Falcons moneyline cashed.
“I'm going to go with the Carolina Panthers against the Jacksonville Jaguars. What do I want with these? Just quarterback uncertainty. The Jags are a mess right now. We know their defense is poor. Panthers' offense has showed signs of life of late. playing a little better. But the Jags, Lawrence might not play, and if he does, he might not be able to go full strength or he might not last. Didn't practice today. He might be down to C.J. Beathard. You already have Christian Kirk on IR. Zay Jones might not play. The offensive line is a mess. They can't run the ball. All the pressure's on Jacksonville here, and everything's falling apart internally. I could, you know, with the quarterback uncertainty, let's take a shot with the Panthers. Well, that's 2.30 for Carolina. at bet MGM. I like it. I was thinking about that one as well. You know, more fun than betting the spread with Carolina because you still never know what you're going to get. Although I thought it was promising what they did against Green Bay last week, but you know, not every team has Joe Barry on the other side. I'll go with the Atlanta Falcons plus 130 at the Chicago Bears. And it's Just as simple as I still think this Bear team is still a little green in terms of, you know, knowing how to win games. You've seen them blow some weeds. Seems like most of their games end up close in the fourth quarter. And Justin Fields has really struggled as a, you know, when it's a favorite or he's not getting more than a field goal on the spread. So I think the Bears, you know, this is still kind of a toss up game. You've talked about it. I think with Tyler Heineke, the turnover risk, they're more productive turnovers. He's probably going to be taking a risk if he turns it over, whereas Ritter, as we talked about, sometimes just gives the ball away in situations that there's no benefit or upside if he accomplished what he was trying to. So like the Falcons here, I can easily see them defeating the Bears. Just hope Arthur Smith comes with one of his better game plans because he's all over the place this season. So if you parlay the Panthers plus 230 at Jacksonville and the Falcons plus 130 at the Bears You get parlay odds of plus 659”
26-0 — Jacksonville beat Carolina 26-0, so Panthers moneyline lost (ESPN Week 17 scoreboard).
“Seattle, minus 105 on the money line, San Francisco, minus 115. I'll take the Seahawks. I'll take Seattle.”
SF 3, SEA 13 — Seahawks beat the 49ers 13-3 on Jan 3, 2026, so Seattle's moneyline pick cashes (ESPN box score).
“I think Baltimore is the right play. [7:38] I hit the money line as soon as I could at like one 55.”
ESPN records Kansas City as the AFC Championship winner, so the Ravens moneyline lost as stored.
“i did bet Gonzaga last night at open, open four and a half money line minus 220. I bet both. So I'm on Gonzaga in this game against Georgia.”
GONZ 89, UGA 68 — Gonzaga beat Georgia 89-68 on 3/20/25, winning outright on the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“Take them on the money line also here as even plus 100 here. We're going to go with the Miami Dolphins over the Dallas Cowboys. Level three lock all the way up.”
MIA 22, DAL 20 — Dolphins beat Cowboys 22-20; Miami won outright, covering the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“I'm betting the Dodgers. A hell of an effort last night by the Phillies. The top of the order finally woke up with Schwarber and Turner and Boehm and Harper. Great. They're not going to get it done today. I think that was just delaying the inevitable. The Dodgers are the better team. I think the Dodgers realize, hey, we don't want to have to go back to Philly on a Saturday night with that crowd. You don't want those problems. So I think the Dodgers have the urgency, and Glass now gets it done. Minus 135 is a bet for me.”
LAD 2, PHI 1 — Dodgers beat Phillies 2-1 in 11 innings in NLDS Game 4; the Dodgers moneyline won (ESPN).
“as a road favorite since 2018 back to jill number three yeah i mean this is probably going to be the most bet underdog of the week i'm with brandon but i'm taking stewart's money line at plus 115 i mean it's a pretty short spread so it's i don't feel like i'm that brave by doing it but that being said i don't think we could really argue why this is going to be the one of the most bet of the week because kenny pickett is finally going to get you know appropriate practice time with the ones um dj watt you know they're going to get a jolt and dalton who is very familiar with mike tomlin and mike tomlin is very familiar with him because dalton in his career obviously playing with the bangles six straight up in eight career games in pittsburgh and those two wins uh back in 2012 and 2015 one of them ben didn't even play you know he's lost three straight games i know it's not called Heinz Field anymore, but it'll always be Heinz Field in my heart. But the Steelers run game should actually get a little bit of an improvement this week as well, because Najee Harris, I believe he's going to probably take a little bit of a step back. You're going to see Jalen Warren actually come in. He's actually averaging a little bit over five yards per carry, whereas Najee's having that Liz Frank injury. It's around 3.3 yards per carry. And I think Deontay Johnson and George Pickens are going to be able to get off like no Marshawn Lattimore. I think Deontay's going to have his first touchdown season in this game. So yeah, Steelers money line, I think is the bet to make.”
ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 10 final results and box score confirm Steelers ML settled won as recorded.
“I don't like the dog in this game. I like the favorite. Give me the Kings minus 115 for the Kings at home on the money line.”
Verified won result (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one is the Oilers. Money line, plus 104 versus the Capitals. Break this one down for us, Lee. Okay, so this game's got a lot of layers here. The Capitals and the Oilers are similar teams. They like to play at a real fast pace. They have a couple superstars up front, two to three on each team, and they have to score because both teams just don't have the defensive depth, and they just have average goaltending. So one thing that they do is they rely on the power play, both teams. So what we have here is Edmonton superstars up front, McDavid, Jazeidel are healthy right now. And they have been all year for Washington, Alex Ovechon healthy, but Nick Backstrom has only played 13 games and hasn't looked like himself. And TJ Oshie is out for this game with an upper body injury. We've talked about it before. We rarely back teams and top players first game back from injury or when top Top players are out, and these injuries, I feel, have just destroyed the Capitals' power play. So if you look at the last seven to eight years across the NHL, Capitals' top five power play almost every year with Overtin and all the weapons they have up front. This year, they ranked 28th in power play percentage, and they've scored, get this, just six power play goals in the month of January when you're on back-to-back days of travel, especially after an emotional overtime victory over your rival. Pittsburgh last night, you're just not going to be able to make adjustments and work on the power play like you normally would. I think they could be in trouble here. I think that's the difference tonight, especially against a rested Edmonton Oilers team that is fighting their way back in the Pacific. Wrong team favored. We're going with the Edmonton Oilers money line, plus 104 tonight over the Washington Capitals. Boom, there it is right there.”
5-3 — Edmonton Oilers beat Washington Capitals 5-3 on a late Ryan Nugent-Hopkins go-ahead goal; the Oilers moneyline pick wins (ESPN).
“[2:46:46] I have plus three and plus 130 on the money line with the Cardinals.”
ARI 17, LAC 15 — Arizona beat the Chargers 17-15 on Oct 21, 2024; the Cardinals moneyline (+130) cashes (ESPN box score).
“I like the Colts and I'm going to bet them to win plus 245 on the money line or best you can find.”
Independent verification agrees: Indianapolis Colts lost; moneyline busts.
“So I played a cheap money line on the Seahawks. The two best teams in the NFL, arguably, the two best teams from an against the spread record as well. But yeah, I think that there's a – if you can get a cheap money line on the Seahawks, I think it's worth a bet. But I see they flipped a favorite at some shops. I think like minus one and a half Seattle is probably a fair price just played a a little little cheap money line minus 102 earlier in the week so uh yeah huge game in the nfc a really good one on thursday night looking forward to it but i like seattle a bit”
Independent verification agrees: Seattle Seahawks won; moneyline covers.
“let's go with jacksonville plus 190 this line's [1:07:24] way too high if lawrence plays”
The Week 13 Pro-Football-Reference box score confirms the stored grade.
“I will, though, bet on the Las Vegas Aces on the money line. You can find minus 115 or you can lay the one, whatever you want to do.”
LV 87, ATL 72 — Aces beat Dream 87-72 on July 22, 2025; the Las Vegas moneyline won.
“The wrong team is favored here in Raleigh. Wrong team favored. We're going with the Colorado Avalanche money line here, plus 105 against Carolina.”
2-0 — Carolina beat Colorado 2-0; the Avalanche moneyline bet busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm going to just hold on to my Memphis money line bet, plus 125 there with Memphis.”
CSU 78, MEM 70 — Colorado State beat Memphis 78-70 in the NCAA Tournament first round; Memphis's moneyline bet lost (ESPN box score).
“But Memphis plus 125 to win. P.J. Haggerty, the best player on the court, he's 100% right. So our guy Slapjack likes Memphis on the Moneyline against Colorado State. Slappy, I'm with you, man. Memphis on the Moneyline, that's my play in that game as well.”
Colorado State 78, Memphis 70 — Colorado State beat Memphis 78-70 outright (ESPN box score); the Memphis moneyline bet lost.
“I bet plus 125”
CSU 78, MEM 70 — Colorado State beat Memphis 78-70 on 3/21/25, so Memphis's moneyline bet lost (ESPN box score).
“I like the program minus 20 minus one 20 on the money line. Get that over on DK, the central Michigan team.”
31-27 — Central Michigan won 31-27, so its moneyline won (ESPN game page).
“I also play that on the money line as well at plus 115.”
MICH 30, NEB 27 — Michigan beat Nebraska 30-27; Nebraska moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Nuggets plus one 30 for one unit here on the money line for the Denver nuggets.”
125-100 — Denver beat Phoenix 125-100 in Game 6 on May 11, so the Nuggets moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“and roll with Pat Costello's Phils out at Chavez Ravine taking on the dodgers. Now they won last night. They beat the dodgers last night, first of a three game set. I'm rolling with the Phils on the money line tonight to beat the Dodgers again. Can I change your mind on this? Go ahead. Because I don't think that's smart because the Phillies clinched the NLEs last night. We're partying. They're hungover. I don't think that a lot of those guys are gonna be starting tonight. It's minus one thirty five, so it's a $100 to make 74.”
PHI 9-6 — Phillies beat Dodgers 9-6 at Chavez Ravine; Phillies moneyline wins (ESPN).
“We're not going to mess with Team USA. USA men's national team is taking on Belgium. We're going to go in the other match, and we're going to roll with Nuno's team, Portugal, against Spain. Portugal's going to be the underdog. So we're going to take them on the money line in a can't-he-can't-lose bet. It's plus 186, so it's $100 with a total payout of $270. That is the play of the day”
POR 0-1 ESP — Spain beat Portugal 1-0 at AT&T Stadium; Portugal moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“Give me Oklahoma. Oklahoma on the money line here at minus 110.”
Verified lost result (ESPN scoreboard).
“So I like Florida at minus 110 against Mississippi State.”
FLA 81, MSST 68 — Florida beat Mississippi State 81-68 on Feb 11, 2025; the Gators moneyline wins (ESPN).
“I bet the Cowboys on the money line at plus 240.”
PHI 24-20 DAL — Eagles beat Cowboys 24-20; Dallas moneyline at +240 busts (ESPN box score).
“You can't get it in the action app yet, but I bet both, the cowboys plus seven and the cowboys on the money line at plus two forty.”
PHI 24, DAL 20 — Eagles beat Cowboys 24-20 in the Week 1 2025 opener; Dallas lost outright, so the Cowboys moneyline bet lost (ESPN box score).
“The, money line number is plus two forty for the Cowboys.”
PHI 24, DAL 20 — Eagles beat Cowboys 24-20 in the Week 1 2025 opener; Dallas lost outright, so the Cowboys moneyline bet lost (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, not only can they not win, they can't even get a good appearance out of Mason Miller in Wrigley Field. As Mason Miller, they gave up the walk-off homer last night. But really, the pitching concerns in this game really lie with the Cubs. Cubs fans, they want a lot of help with the trade deadline, especially in the starting rotation, and that's largely due to injuries across the board. They've already acquired David Peterson from the Mets to try to help things out, but a lot of those concerns also stem from Matthew Boyd. Now, remember, he was their quote-unquote ace going into the postseason last year because they just didn't have any help, but he was all they had left, and he had been pitching pretty consistently. He's not going to be your number one starter getting you through the postseason, and he might not even be their number one starter right now. He hasn't looked great since he came back from injury. Remember, he had that early season, and it might have actually been a preseason injury. He hurt his hand when he was playing with his kids at home, and he just hasn't looked great since he came back from that injury. He's got a 502 ERA in limited appearances since he did come back. He's giving up a 50% hard hit rate. That's actually in the second percentile among all MLB pitchers. It's one of the worst in baseball. Now, he also has a pull error percentage of 23.7% in his limited starts so far this year. Now, for those who don't know, a pull error percentage is the percentage of batted balls you give up that are pulled to the pull side of the hitter and are in the air. Typically, those are harder hit baseballs. That's where you see home runs, doubles, extra base hits, and you're giving up hard contact. It's one of the worst in baseball at 23.7%. In fact, in Major League Baseball right now, the league average is 16%. So he's a full 7%, almost 8% higher than the league average right now. Now, that will not play in most parks and in most situations, but it's definitely not going to play at Wrigley Field in 90-degree weather when the wind is blowing out. If you notice, and you go check the game line for this game, the total, the over-under for this game is at around 11.5, and that's because Wrigley Field is extremely weather-dependent. The wind is going to be blowing out. The weather is going to be warm. That's going to give plenty of opportunities to these hitters to put up home runs, put up extra base hits. And the way Boyd is pitching so far early in this year, it's just not good enough for Wrigley Field. Now, on the other end, you do have J.P. Sears for the Padres. And he, frankly, would not be a starter right now if they were fully healthy. He's not a world beater, but he actually is a guy that I picked to bet on quite a bit this season, primarily because he's really just a five-and-dive guy. He's going to go out there and pitch four, five, maybe six innings if he's really on his stuff and he's got his fastball and his changeup moving. But even then, in his best game, he's going to be turning this game over to the bullpen pretty early on. Now, if you look at the Padres' available relievers, Mason Miller, like I mentioned, pitched last night but only seven pitches and didn't pitch the game before. Adrian Morajone and Kyle Hart are a couple of other guys that are still going to be available. So regardless of how long J.P. Sears lasts, this bullpen, the best in baseball by far, is going to be able to take over this game and take over the last half of the game, if not the last four or five innings at the very least, and really shut down this Cubs offense that hasn't inspired much in the last couple of weeks. They're well rested. They should have no problem taking on high leverage and low leverage situations in this game. and I honestly think this starting pitching matchup is much closer than it should be. Boyd has been known as a one or two starter the last couple of years, but frankly he's been pitching like a three or four this year. So with how well the Padres have played on the road recently, with the Cubs' injury struggles and how much their offense has been hit or miss recently, give me the San Diego Padres. I think at plus 100, this is a level one lock.”
7-9 — The Cubs beat San Diego 9-7; the Padres ML loses (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Predators minus 121 with the take back being [3:54] plus 106 for Minnesota. Break this one down for us, Lee. Yeah, Q, there's not much left to play [3:59] for in the NHL postseason race at this point, and teams are likely to let some minor league [4:06] players get some experience. [4:08] But I think there is a bit of an edge in this game. [4:10] As of Tuesday night, the Nashville Predators had to win their last two games and see Winnipeg [4:17] lose their final two games to make the postseason. [4:20] Nashville won their games, but the Jets beat this Minnesota Wild team to ruin Nashville's [4:26] shot of getting into the postseason. [4:28] So this is the Predators here, first game since being eliminated. [4:33] And it's important to look back at the last few months of the year to get a real feel for a team now that just how they're going to perform on a certain given night. [4:45] So the Predators lost Roman Hosey, Ryan Johansson, Matt Duchesne, and Flip Forsberg to injuries about a month ago. [4:54] Those are their four best players. [4:56] I mean, it's not even close by a mile. [4:58] Yet somehow this team filled with basically minor league players contended for a spot in the West. [5:04] It was a great experience for these kids, but they have to be downright exhausted. [5:10] Soros, the goaltender, played in almost every single game for the last month and will likely be out for this one. [5:16] Minnesota is on their last game of the regular season and doesn't want to match up with Colorado here on a mini losing streak. [5:25] So I don't expect them to play all their starters, [5:29] but I think they're going to go hard at least for a couple periods here. [5:33] And I do think that the stress here will come back to Nashville, [5:39] and it's going to haunt them for what they've had to go through [5:42] to even stay in contention here. [5:44] We're going to go with our wrong team favored, number one. [5:48] Today on Thursday, Minnesota Wild money line here, [5:52] plus 106 over the Nashville Predators.”
NSH 4, MIN 3 — Predators beat the Wild 4-3 in overtime on April 13, 2023, on Juuso Parssinen's OT goal; Minnesota's moneyline pick loses (ESPN).
“but what you want with a money line dog ideally um is uncertainty and we have that here i don't [1:06:55] who who knows what the patriots are going to look like um they're they're and they're just a mess [1:07:00] they're they're a mess belichick has lost it uh the team has lost it um the giants are still [1:07:07] fighting at least uh and yeah give me the new york giants with all the uncertainty [1:07:13] Yeah that that even that plus three was looking pretty tempting I mean the Patriots shouldn be favored on the road versus anyone by that by that margin But at the same time the Giants got so lucky with six turnovers I mean this is just just a shit show so yeah i i think this is kind of the perfect time to to take a money line dog i go [1:07:35] with the buffalo bills here simply because uh i think they can win but i also you know the eagles [1:07:42] when they do win they sim they don't it doesn't ever seem to come down to a field goal anyway it's [1:07:47] always like you know with that gavis by five and the chiefs by four it's like it's one of those [1:07:54] teams that I don't mind just taking the money line here with Buffalo. You already broke it down, [1:08:00] so I'm not going to belabor the point, but Buffalo is plus 145 on the money line and the G-men are [1:08:09] plus 140.”
10-7 — New York won 10-7, so the Giants moneyline won as stored (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“I'm betting on Otani. I'm taking the, digging the Dodgers, Dodgers money line, minus one 10, 1.1 units down on that.”
Verified lost result (authoritative scoreboard).
“But I just think Team USA is going to win this game because of the environment, because it's a chance to make history and head into the knockout round with a perfect record of three and oh, I'm playing Team USA on the money line and minus one fifteen three way money line here for one point one five units.”
Verified lost result (ESPN scoreboard).
“Kansas City Royals money line minus 145 blowout over the Pittsburgh Pirates. I think this line ends up minus 155 to 165. Get on it”
KC 3, PIT 6 — Pirates beat Royals 6-3 on Ke'Bryan Hayes' two-run 8th-inning homer; Royals moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“The Golden State Warriors, we're gonna take them to win outright. They are a point and a half underdog, so we're gonna take them to win outright that pays out at plus one zero five. That is the play of the day.”
HOU 91, GS 90 — Rockets beat Warriors 91-90 in NBA Cup quarterfinal; Golden State moneyline busts (ESPN).
“[7:28] a bit of a letdown here against Colorado. [7:30] Rockies should be a bit motivated. [7:31] Hunter Goodman, you know, still with the team, didn't get traded. [7:34] So we're going to go with Colorado at St. Louis around plus 128 at FanDuel. [7:40] Let's take the Rockies tonight. [7:41] Wrong team favored against the St. Louis Cardinals.”
STL 3, COL 2 — Colorado Rockies lost; moneyline busts.
“give me the Jags minus 110 at BetMGM against the Jets”
NFL official results confirm the stored outcome.
“Let's go Philadelphia on a cheap money line price at minus 105 for 1.05 units.”
Verified lost result (ESPN scoreboard).
“So I think it's a short price. It's a cheap price. You can take the Dodgers at 150. We don't get it very often against a bad team in the Mets, a good team in the Dodgers. Let's take the L.A. Dodgers on the money line at minus 150.”
Verified won result (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm going to lay the minus one 30 Boston at home money line to beat Vegas minus one 30.”
4-1 — Vegas beat Boston 4-1, so the Bruins moneyline lost (ESPN game page).
“We're going to come in here and take Logan Gilbert and back him on the hard rock bet of the day. Mariners money line against Kansas City for 1.35 units, minus 135 for the Mariners on the money line.”
Verified won result (ESPN scoreboard).
“And I also bet some money line at plus 135 as well.”
TB 30, SF 19 — Tampa Bay beat San Francisco 30-19; the 49ers moneyline busts (ESPN).
“and I get the better offense. The Bengals have the better weapons. And now if Burrow's playing the better quarterback too. So give me the six and a half or the six, whatever best line you can get, obviously. Give me the plus 250 money line. I'll say this. Probably at this point, you may wait and find out who's actually playing quarterback. Because if it's Burrow, you're going to lose a little bit more on the line, but you're going to know it's Burrow and you're going to want the pick. If it's not Burrow and it goes back to Flacco, I do think it gets to seven or past again. You're going to get a better line out of it. So I think go ahead and wait. But for the podcast today, as we're live now, that's the pick. And then I still like the division odds as well at 40 to one.”
Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.
“We're gonna take the Houston Texans on the money line today. That's at plus one ten. So it's a $100 to make a $110. That is the play of the day. Houston, Texas.”
NYJ 21, HOU 13 — Jets beat the Texans 21-13 on Thursday Night Football; Texans moneyline lost (ESPN).
“All right, this one is for Riz and ESPN Cleveland, and I am going with the Gardos over the White Sox on the money line today. Shout out to Mike Monaco, who came on our show, who's actually going to be calling that game at 1 o'clock. So the Gardos on the money line, it's $100 with a total payout of $155. That is the play of the day.”
CLE 6, CHW 3 — Cleveland Guardians won; moneyline covers.
“Xavier on the money line at plus 110 against Marquette. I'm out.”
MARQ 89, XAV 87 — Marquette beat Xavier 89-87 in the Big East tournament quarterfinal on March 13, 2025, so the Xavier moneyline pick lost (ESPN box score).
Spread & total CLV in points vs an audited quote within 15 minutes of the start. Moneylines are ranked by implied-probability movement between the stated entry price and the pregame quote — cent differences mislead at longshot odds — and every listed mover was cross-checked against the raw snapshot archive. How we measure this.
Largest absolute movements with stated entries. Cards identify quote timing. These sensitivity observations are not verified final closes. Morning-price proxies are excluded.
“all right we're starting so we're starting with chargers money line uh my two are gonna be the panthers plus one we'll call it and i guess if you want money then we'll go panthers money line or saints money line i like the saints up against the giants panthers first bet i made”
CAR 27, MIA 24 — Panthers beat Dolphins 27-24 outright, covering the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to take the Boston Celtics team total over 106 and a half points and minus 110. OK, over 106 and a half Boston team total over 106 and a half at minus 110. It's how I'm going to play it for a half a unit.”
Golden State scored 103 points, staying under its 106.5 team total (ESPN box score). (Golden State 103 pts)
“So we're going to go over one and a half touchdowns for the Cincinnati Bengals. Level one lock to start the week.”
DEN 28, CIN 3 — Cincinnati's only points in the 28-3 loss to Denver on Sept 29, 2025 came from a 1st-quarter Evan McPherson field goal; the Bengals scored zero touchdowns, missing the 1.5-team-TD line (ESPN scoring plays). (Bengals team touchdowns: 0)
“I like Western Michigan plus 24 for 1.1 units.”
14-28 — Wisconsin beat Western Michigan 28-14, so Western Michigan +24 covered (ESPN box score).
“Minus one and a half North Carolina minus one and a half for 1.1 units.”
19-17 — North Carolina beat Minnesota 19-17, covering -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“I think they going to fight their tails off and Belichick have a really good game plan So to me I going to jump in here with the Patriots team total over 22 and a half points Need 23 points for the Patriots to get over on this It's minus 105, 1.05 units on that.”
24-17 — ESPN records Miami defeating New England 24-17; the Patriots team-total Over was lost. (New England Patriots scored 17 points)
“Team total Baltimore Ravens over twenty three and a half is minus one thirty five. I'm going to lay the juice minus one thirty five team total Baltimore Ravens against these Cincinnati Bengals. I like you can lay the, you know, minus three and a half if you want on the Ravens. But I think this is a better way to go officially. 1.35 units down. Ravens team total over 23 and a half for Thursday night football here tonight.”
34-20 — Baltimore beat Cincinnati 34-20, so over 23.5 won (ESPN scoreboard).
“I don't think Maryland scores many points at all against Michigan's defense. I'm going to leave the 19 points, Michigan minus 19 for 1.1 units.”
31-24 — Michigan beat Maryland 31-24, so Michigan -19 lost (ESPN scoreboard).
“Oregon state at Utah. I'm taking the Utah Utes here, minus 10 and a half. It's a minus one Oh six over on FanDuel.”
Utah 42-16 — Utah won 42-16, covering -10.5 (ESPN game page).
“Last but not least a little NBA the association Lakers at nets nets are laying eight and a half at home. I'm taking them. Give me the Brooklyn nets, eight and a half over on bed. MGM”
121-104 — Brooklyn beat the Lakers 121-104, so the Nets covered +8.5 (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to play the under on the Lakers and the Raptors under 216 at minus 110.”
107-92 — The Toronto Raptors defeated the Los Angeles Lakers 107-92, for 199 total points (ESPN). (199 total points)
“I think the best play in the game, bet the over, over 163 for UMass in Miami of Ohio.”
Verified push result (ESPN scoreboard).
“If you're Alabama, give me Auburn plus the points. Auburn plus 11 and a half for 1.1 units.”
Verified lost result (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm taking the Giants plus 2.5 at home against the Cardinals.”
26-7 — Arizona beat the New York Giants 26-7, so the Giants did not cover (ESPN game page).
“I like the Giants plus two and a half.”
ARI 26-7 NYG — Cardinals beat Giants 26-7 (margin -19), well short of New York Giants +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to take the three points here. Give me UMass Lowell plus three on the road up against Maine. I'm not going to be surprised at all if UMass Lowell wins this game here outright and wins in the America East Tournament in advances here. I think you must little plus three on the road at Maine here today in the America East tournament.”
Verified lost result (ESPN scoreboard).
“both overs both chasing steam both bets both times both moves over 155 and a half in the first game in Dayton over 132 and a half in the second game in Dayton”
60-59 — Pittsburgh beat Mississippi State 60-59 for 119 total points, so the over lost (ESPN box score). (Total points 119)
“Let's take Miami of Ohio plus 11 and a half up against Tennessee for 1.1 units.”
Verified lost result (ESPN scoreboard).
“Alabama plus one and a half. If you want to take the money line, go ahead. But I'll take the one and a half just to be safe.”
Oklahoma 66-61 Alabama — Oklahoma beat Alabama 66-61, so Alabama +1.5 lost (ESPN game page).
“That's an official play for a half a unit. [16:45] Tennessee minus two and a half.”
Tennessee 80-61 Kansas — Tennessee beat Kansas 80-61, covering -2.5 (Tennessee Athletics).
“I'm going to lay it. I'll lay the six points. Arizona minus six up against Purdue here.”
64-79 — Arizona beat Purdue 79-64, covering -6 (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, so over tonight in the Lakers-Sixers game, 222.5, the over is 18 and, I'm sorry, it is 17 and 8 in games when Austin Reeves plays for the Lakers, and even better when Austin Reeves plays with Luka Doncic. You basically can't kind of quantify the cumulative impact of Luka Doncic next to Reeves, both positively offensively and negatively defensively. So I really love this spot, been playing it consistently. The over in Sixers, the Lakers, regardless of whether Embiid plays tonight, I think is a really good look.”
LAL 119-PHI 115 — Lakers beat 76ers 119-115 (234 combined points); over 222.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“So OKC is a one-and-a-half-point road favorite at San Antonio. We don't know if Isaiah Hardenstein is going to play in the game, if Alex Caruso is going to play in the game. This may be a sucker bet. It may be. I do like OKC to win tonight in San Antonio. We know the Spurs beat them three times in 13 days at the end of 2025 in three different cities, including in Vegas and the semifinals of the NBA Cup before my Knicks won the NBA Cup. But OKC beat them the last time they played. I think they got off the schneid. I like OKC tonight as a short road favorite in San Antonio.”
SAS 116-OKC 106 — Spurs beat Thunder 116-106; OKC -1.5 busts, losing outright by 10 (ESPN box score).
“I'll take the over. The over in Oregon, Arizona is 162.5 and going up. Over.”
ARIZ 87, ORE 83 — Arizona beat Oregon 87-83 in the NCAA Tournament second round, a combined 170 points; the over 162.5 total covers (ESPN box score).
“I probably should bet money line here with Baylor, but I'm going to lay one and a half instead. It's minus 125.”
Verified lost result (ESPN scoreboard).
“We got Spurs and the Thunder tonight, and that game is gonna be on ESPN, so that's gonna be awesome. Spurs, Thunder, we're gonna go with the Spurs on the money line. It's plus one zero five, so it's a $100 to make a $105. That is the play of the day. Let's go.”
SA 116, OKC 106 — San Antonio beat Oklahoma City 116-106 on Feb 4, 2026, cashing the Spurs moneyline (ESPN).
“Seahawks to score first and win. You can bet that outcome to combine bet at most major books, plus 125.”
Independent verification agrees: Seattle Seahawks won; moneyline covers.
“Again, it's juicy, but Dodgers money line minus 158 for 1.58 units.”
Verified won result (ESPN scoreboard).
“So there's just a lot of reasons to bet the Dodgers here today up against the Phillies and the price is too good to pass up. Dodgers minus 120. Sorry, minus 115 for 1.15 units.”
Verified lost result (ESPN scoreboard).
“Just win on the Moneyline at plus 150.”
Tampa Bay 4-1 Nashville — Tampa Bay beat Nashville 4-1, so the Lightning moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“Knicks on the Moneyline. They win Game 3 at home, Electric Atmosphere, Madison Square Garden. Knicks on the Moneyline. It's $100 to make $176. That is the play of the day.”
SA 115, NY 111 — Spurs beat Knicks 115-111 in NBA Finals Game 3 behind Wembanyama's 32 points; Knicks moneyline lost (ESPN).
“I took Wisconsin at the very beginning of the week on the money line when it was priced around like minus 115.”
WIS 49, MICH 11 — Wisconsin beat Michigan 49-11, so the Wisconsin moneyline won.
“we're going to go with the Carolina Hurricanes tonight in the Stanley Cup Finals on the money line. They down 2 in the series to the Vegas Golden Knights So we going to go with the Canes Rob Brendamore friend of the show he the coach for the Hurricanes We have to back the Hurricanes So we're going to place a bet on the money line for the Hurricanes. It's $100 with a payout of $187. That is the play of the day.”
CAR 5, VGK 3 — Hurricanes beat Golden Knights 5-3 in Stanley Cup Final Game 4 to tie the series 2-2; Hurricanes moneyline cashed (ESPN).
“So give me the Chiefs. Give me Patrick Mahomes. Give me the [23:18] Chiefs to win from behind plus 175.”
40-22 — The NFL gamebook records the Chiefs never led in Philadelphia's 40-22 win, so the comeback bet lost.
“I'm going with the Cubbies on the money line in Wrigley Field. I know it seems weird, but we've got to get a win, Smalls. We've got to get a win. I'll take it any way I can get it. So I'm going with the Cubs on the money line against my Yankees. It's $100 with a total payout of $163. That is the play of the day.”
CHC 0-2 NYY — Yankees beat the Cubs 2-0 behind Will Warren; Cubs moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“But give me the Detroit Lions plus 115 plus 120 at Carolina”
CAR 20, DET 0 — Carolina beat Detroit 20-0, so the Lions moneyline lost.
“BetOnline.net line for this one. the Cubs minus 125 versus the Orioles with the take back being plus 115. Thoughts on this one, Lee? So there's a couple of things going on with this, Kim. The first thing, Jordan Lyles, the Orioles pitcher tonight. Most people don't even know who the guy is. But if you've been watching and paying attention to baseball, been lighted out by his standards at home this season. Has a 293 ERA in Camden yards, which is nearly half his career average. And I think I know what his game plan is now. Remember, Camden Yards, a lot of people don't realize it. They moved their left field ball up. They made it higher, and they moved it back this offseason. And it has dramatically reduced the number of homers allowed there. Well, Lyles is enjoying it because he's throwing his fastball less and his sinker more. He's inducing more ground balls. And when he gives up a fly ball, it's going out of the park a lot less this year. In fact, he's given up a ton of less hits this year, but he's also allowed not one home run, not one at home this season. The other notable aspect of this game is Marcus Stroman. He's struggling on and off the field, 532 ERA, and the team only has two wins in his nine starts this year, you would think that he would stay off social media and focus on fixing his game. But instead, he got into some Twitter arguments with Yankees fans over the weekend about how he was much better than Garrett Cole. Are you kidding me? I just don't think this guy's head is in the game right now. So I think he's hurting the Cubs, and maybe they can, you know, move him at the deadline for a prospect. But for right now, he's not a pitcher I want to back. Wrong team favorite, Baltimore Orioles at home, money line over the Cubbies.”
3-2 — This June 8 game was rained out and replayed as a makeup on August 18, 2022; the Cubs won that makeup game 3-2 at Camden Yards (ESPN box score), so Orioles ML loses.
“So my Lakers, double digit dogs playing the Knicks in the garden, is absolutely crazy to me. I know it's gonna be a crazy environment, but I'm going with my Lakers. I mean, it's plus $3.75, so it's a $100 to make some change, to make $375. That is the play of the”
NY 112, LAL 100 — The Knicks beat the Lakers 112-100 at Madison Square Garden on Feb 1, 2026, busting the Los Angeles Lakers moneyline (ESPN).
“Wrong team favorite, Pittsburgh Pirates money line, plus 106 here over the Philadelphia Phillies.”
PHI 7, PIT 6 — Phillies beat Pirates 7-6 on 2023-09-27 (Bryce Harper HR in the 7th), so the Pirates moneyline busted (ESPN box score).
“OK, so four plays going officially for us, two in baseball, one in the NBA and one in Euro Red Sox money line minus 115 Red Sox and Phillies to score run in the first inning either team that minus 135 bucks minus one and a half in the first quarter of game three. at minus 117 in England at minus 125 for half a unit to win Euro Cup 2020 in any way possible.”
5-4 — Philadelphia beat Boston 5-4, so the Red Sox moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“The Minnesota links on the road against the Atlanta dream. We're gonna roll with the links on the money line. It's a $100 to make a 100. That is the play of the day.”
ATL 92, MIN 96 — Minnesota Lynx beat Atlanta Dream 96-92 in overtime; Lynx moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“So we're gonna take the Chicago White Sox on the money line tonight against the Oakland a's,”
CHW 5, OAK 1 — White Sox beat Athletics 5-1; moneyline cashes (ESPN scoreboard).
“But I'm just going to lay the Jews at minus 190. Not sweat the points. Just Phoenix Suns win the game, period.”
Phoenix 128-101 Oklahoma City — Phoenix beat Oklahoma City 128-101, so the Suns moneyline won (ESPN game result).
“Now for me I betting Arkansas State money line I got it at plus 270 earlier today on the money line You can look at that number at bet MGM”
ARST 35, KSU 31 — Verified against an ESPN box score: ARST 35, KSU 31; the recorded outcome matches.
“I think it's worth the flyer here. Astros plus one thirty five for one unit Take Houston to beat Pittsburgh coming up here for tonight”
9-11 — Houston beat Pittsburgh 11-9, so the Astros moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“Don't understand how they're plus money. I'm going to jump on it. Plus 105 for the Arcongo Moneyline. Expect Joan Vista to get back on the score sheet. Had a couple of chances in their last match. Couldn't get one in. But yeah, I got to back Congo here. Uzbekistan has not shown that they have any quality as far as at this level. DR Congo went through a very rigorous process and qualifying process to get here and I expect him to go out with a bang on the group stage and look for that win to be able to advance so plus 105 for DR Congo money line.”
Congo DR beat Uzbekistan 3-1; Congo DR ML won.
“Pelicans, Moneyline, in the game after the Fallen Hero game with the Golden State Warriors, Pelicans plus 120.”
89-104 — Warriors beat the Pelicans 104-89 on 10/30/24; Pelicans lost outright on the moneyline (ESPN final).
“I'm just going to go for the draw at the biggest price in the 1x2 market and that's at plus 210.”
KOR 2, CZE 1 — KOR 2, CZE 1; draw misses.
“We're going to roll with this one, the betonline.ag line for this one. Winnipeg Jets regulation money line plus 110 versus Montreal Break this one down for us Lee Yeah a lot of talk has been made about whether rust or rest would prevail for teams in the second round this year given that compacted regular season schedule And some of the quicker series in round one, well, you know, like Colorado, Boston, Winnipeg, were the three teams that ended their first round series quickly in the first round. What happened in the next round? Colorado, first game, they came out one game one. Boston, they came out and won game one. They won by a combined 12-3 score. So I think they answered our question about rust over rest in pretty dominant fashion. Winnipeg has had a full week off before this game, and Montreal just beat their eternal rival in game seven of their first head-to-head series in generations. So I think the highs of that series with Toronto will bring some lows in game one tonight. And I'm riding the Winnipeg Jets in regulation with those incredible odds. I'll take them here. Plus 110. Wrong team favorite. Winnipeg Jets. Regulation. Money line. Easy winner.”
MTL 5-3 WPG — Montreal beat Winnipeg 5-3 in Game 1 of their second-round series, so the Jets moneyline loses (ESPN).
“Dodgers minus one 10 on the money line.”
5-3 — Milwaukee won 5-3, so Los Angeles lost the moneyline (ESPN game page).