When the market moves toward a pick after it airs, the money agreed with it. The 25 biggest spread and total moves in each direction across 5,743 captured point-market picks, and the 25 biggest moneyline moves across 754 captured prices — the calls the market chased, and the ones it ran from.
“Over five and a half series is minus 135. We're going to put 1.35 units down on that for this series to go to six or seven. Doesn't matter who wins, but four, two or four, three, either T-Wolves or for the Thunder.”
Oklahoma City won the Western Conference Finals 4-1, so the series lasted five games and finished under 5.5 games. (Series length: 5 games (Oklahoma City 4-1 Minnesota))
“I like Western Michigan plus 24 for 1.1 units.”
WIS 28, WMU 14 — Western Michigan Broncos margin -14 vs line +24; covers.
“I think they going to fight their tails off and Belichick have a really good game plan So to me I going to jump in here with the Patriots team total over 22 and a half points Need 23 points for the Patriots to get over on this. It's minus 105, 1.05 units on that.”
New England scored 17 points, below its team total of 22.5. (Miami 24, New England 17)
“Team total Baltimore Ravens over twenty three and a half is minus one thirty five. I'm going to lay the juice minus one thirty five team total Baltimore Ravens against these Cincinnati Bengals. I like you can lay the, you know, minus three and a half if you want on the Ravens. But I think this is a better way to go officially. 1.35 units down. Ravens team total over 23 and a half for Thursday night football here tonight.”
Baltimore scored 34 points, clearing its team total of 23.5. (Baltimore 34 points)
“If you're Alabama, give me Auburn plus the points. Auburn plus 11 and a half for 1.1 units.”
ALA 28, AUB 14 — Auburn Tigers margin -14 vs line +11.5; busts.
“I'm going to take the three points here. Give me UMass Lowell plus three on the road up against Maine. I'm not going to be surprised at all if UMass Lowell wins this game here outright and wins in the American East tournament in advances here. I think you must little plus three on the road at Maine here today in the America East tournament.”
UMass Lowell River Hawks margin -8 with +3; lost. Final: ME 72, UML 64.
“both overs both chasing steam both bets both times both moves over 155 and a half in the first game in Dayton over 132 and a half in the second game in Dayton”
Pittsburgh won 60–59; the 119 total stayed under 132.5; therefore Over graded lost. (Pittsburgh won 60–59; the 119 total stayed under 132.5)
“Let's take Miami of Ohio plus 11 and a half up against Tennessee for 1.1 units.”
TENN 78, M-OH 56 — Miami (OH) RedHawks margin -22 vs line +11.5; busts.
“I'm going to lay it. I'll lay the six points. Arizona minus six up against Purdue here.”
ARIZ 79, PUR 64 — Arizona Wildcats margin +15 vs line -6; covers.
“Carolina Panthers, minus two.”
CAR 17, ATL 25 — Carolina Panthers margin -8 vs line -2; busts.
“last but not least I mean I'm rocking the jersey I'm going to the game. Give me the Philadelphia Eagles. We're taking over the city of Arizona, Tempe, Scottsdale, Glendale. It's like got five different city names. The only city name that'll matter come today is Philadelphia. Give me the Eagles minus five. Get that over on win bet.”
ARI 17, PHI 20 — Philadelphia Eagles margin +3 vs line +5; covers.
“All right, for my third and final pick of the week and the fifth pick of the Sunday six-pack, I'm going with the Washington football team, plus seven and a half at BetMGM at home against the Los Angeles Rams.”
WSH 10, LAR 30 — Washington margin -20 vs line +7.5; busts.
“that has me betting under 57”
ISU 14, UL 31 — Combined 45; under 57 covers.
“I'm already on Georgia State plus 17. So let's hope Quad Brown can get it done.”
GAST 31, UL 34 — Georgia State Panthers margin -3 vs line +17; covers.
“it's another division under cowboys eagles give me the under 45 and a half”
PHI 41, DAL 7 — Combined 48; under 45.5 busts.
“as far as the game itself, I'm going to put two units on the chargers minus four and a half.”
LAC 19, DEN 16 — Los Angeles Chargers margin +3 vs line +4.5; covers.
“Love the over, though. [29:29] If that's true and there's not going to be snow and not going to be crazy shit happening during the game, [29:33] take that value and take the over. [29:35] I already grabbed it at 41.5, 41. [29:38] It's up to 42.5 in a bunch of books. [29:40] Key number, I'd still grab it there.”
BUF 31, CLE 23 — Combined 54; over 42.5 covers.
“the start of the 2023 season one of our picks we're running back we went with the browns game under last week let's start with the browns game under this week 49ers at browns under 42 and a half.”
CLE 8, SF 26 — Combined 34; under 42.5 covers.
“that's where I'm going with my total. [52:22] under 40 and a half in Cleveland.”
CLE 3, MIA 20 — Combined 23; under 40.5 covers.
“Arizona to the Los Angeles Rams. Los Angeles Rams are seven-point favorites right now at Hard Rock Bet. This is going to be Chad's Choice presented by Hard Rock Bet. Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice? What choice? we can't run from where we are sharp dudes can just see it you know what i mean when asked if the rams would play their starters in week 18 sean mcveigh said oh they're playing we need to play better so to me this is a normal handicap not a week 18 handicap and let me give you some stats about the cardinals they remember in the beginning of the year where like the Carls are playing close, they're playing hard. They started September, October with losses of 1.3 points, 1.4 points, and four points. Their November, December losses have been 22 points, 19 points, 3-3, 32, 20, 7, and 23. Three of those blowouts, losses came in the division i'm taking the rams in a get right spot against a team that has no answers defensively and very few answers offensively as we've seen again and again and again no matter who they're playing”
LAR 37, ARI 20 — Los Angeles Rams margin +17 vs line -7; covers.
“You can get Minnesota minus five and a half right now. Why would we not take that? Like they're playing for real.”
MIN 16, GB 3 — Minnesota Vikings margin +13 vs line -5.5; covers.
“I took the Ravens under against the Steelers for this coming week. [40:30] I took that on the look ahead at 42.”
BAL 13, PIT 16 — Combined 29; under 42 covers.
“I'm going to go ahead and take the Grizzlies, plus four. The Phoenix Suns are 7-0 against the spread and 7-0 here in this bubble. If the Mavericks play, and they have their seed already locked up, if the Dallas Mavericks play in the second half, Luka Doncic and Christoph Przingis, I'm going to pull my hair out. There's no need, there's no reason. They should not be playing, not at all. It's five and a half. I'm laying the five and a half here with the Phoenix Suns to go 8-0 and 8-0 against the spread here in the bubble. Dallas has nothing to play for. There's no reason for them to play hard here. Suns minus five and a half. Then we're going Spurs and the Jazz. The Spurs are laying seven and I know the numbers start to go up. You got plus numbers with the Grizzlies at plus four. The Suns are laying five and a half. The Spurs are now laying seven against the Utah Jazz because Utah clinched the 16. They're playing the Nuggets. I mean, they know they're playing the Nuggets. So this game means nothing. It means nothing. So we know that Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley are not playing. They were ruled out. How many other players are going to get ruled out? I don't know, but they're punting on this game. It doesn't matter. Utah wants to stay healthy. They're giving the game to the Spurs. It's just a matter of how many points will the Spurs wind up winning by. So we're going to lay the seven with the San Antonio Spurs. These are all at minus 110. We're laying the minus seven here. So plus four with the Grizzlies, minus five and a half with the Suns, minus seven with the Spurs, and the Portland Trailblazers are the biggest favorite of the day, ending the day against the Brooklyn Nets. And I'll be honest, I'm a little concerned about what may happen if Portland doesn't need this game, but I think they're going to play hard. I think you'll see Dame go off for another big night, and I'm going to lay the nine points.”
Memphis Grizzlies +4 won: Memphis beat Milwaukee 119-106; Grizzlies +4 covered. (Memphis beat Milwaukee 119-106; Grizzlies +4 covered.)
“i bet some vikings minus six which was like scary knowing that you could be betting max prosner minus six”
MIN 16, GB 3 — Minnesota Vikings margin +13 vs line -6; covers.
“I'm going with the Minnesota Vikings minus six at home against the Green Bay Packers.”
MIN 16, GB 3 — Minnesota Vikings margin +13 vs line -6; covers.
“Minus one and a half North Carolina minus one and a half for 1.1 units.”
MINN 17, UNC 19 — North Carolina Tar Heels margin +2 vs line -1.5; covers.
“I don't think Maryland scores many points at all against Michigan's defense. I'm going to leave the 19 points, Michigan minus 19 for 1.1 units.”
MD 24, MICH 31 — Michigan Wolverines margin +7 vs line -19; busts.
“So we're going to play the under on the Lakers and the Raptors under 216 at minus 110.”
TOR 107, LAL 92 — Combined 199; under 216 covers.
“I think the best play in the game, bet the over, over 163 for UMass in Miami of Ohio.”
MASS 77, M-OH 86 — Combined 163; over 163 pushes.
“I'm taking the Giants plus 2.5 at home against the Cardinals.”
NYG 7, ARI 26 — New York Giants margin -19 vs line +2.5; busts.
“I like the Giants plus two and a half.”
NYG 7, ARI 26 — New York Giants margin -19 vs line +2.5; busts.
“Alabama plus one and a half. If you want to take the money line, go ahead. But I'll take the one and a half just to be safe.”
Alabama lost 66-61 to Oklahoma and did not cover +1.5. (Oklahoma 66, Alabama 61)
“That's an official play for a half a unit. [16:45] Tennessee minus two and a half.”
Tennessee beat Kansas 80-61 and covered -2.5. (Tennessee 80, Kansas 61)
“I probably should bet money line here with Baylor, but I'm going to lay one and a half instead. It's minus 125.”
BAY 67, ARIZ 74 — Baylor Bears margin -7 vs line -1.5; busts.
“I'll go over first bet over 157 for Gonzaga and Grand Canyon.”
GONZ 82, GCU 70 — Combined 152; over 157 busts.
“So to recap our three plays on Saturday, Michigan pick them just to win the game at home against Penn State over Iron Bowl, Auburn and Alabama at 62.”
ALA 42, AUB 13 — Combined 55; over 62 busts.
“I am going with the Denver Broncos plus six at MGM at home against the New Orleans Saints.”
DEN 3, NO 31 — Denver Broncos margin -28 vs line +6; busts.
“South Carolina, North Carolina, over 63. And I think Drake Mays got a big start to his season. I think he throws for a ton of yards here. I think they pick up a they score a ton of points. I think Carolina is going to win the game. I leaned towards the Tar Heels. Everyone's on South Carolina. I lean towards North Carolina to get a W. I really do think this, but Shane Beamer is a good coach. Mack Brown's a good coach. I'm not going to pick a side. I just going to throw it over on the on the over here we going over.”
SC 17, UNC 31 — Combined 48; over 63 busts.
“it's too good not to bet it plus one 30 one unit indiana plus two and a half games in this series for one unit plus one 30 for the pacers plus two and a half games meaning again four two boston wins we cash four three boston wins we cash the only two only two scenarios we don't win is 4-0 and 4-1”
BOS 133, IND 128 — Indiana Pacers margin -5 vs line +2.5; busts.
“So we got Patriots minus three and a half one unit at even money We got the Raiders minus three against the Giants minus one ten And we got the Rams minus three Sorry minus seven at home against the Titans for one unit at minus one ten”
LAR 16, TEN 28 — Los Angeles Rams margin -12 vs line -7; busts.
“Bills minus 5.5, plus 225.”
DEN 33, BUF 30 — Buffalo Bills margin -3 vs line -5.5; busts.
“UC San Diego, this is a big number. I'm not going to lie. 12 and a half. It's a big number. I'm going to lay it. UC San Diego on the road. They're 14-2 this year, ATS. 9-1 over their last 10. And they're 16-3, ATS, in conference play. UC Davis is 10-8-1 in conference play. Need to send a message here. On the road, get a big W. Send a message and do exactly what Irvine just did to UC Davis. They beat them by 29. Similar type of game here for San Diego. Lay the 12 and a half. UC San Diego minus 12 and a half for 1.1 units.”
UC San Diego Tritons margin +11 with -12.5; lost. Final: UCD 57, UCSD 68.
“I love a same-game teaser here in this game, guys. I love a same-game teaser. I love taking the Chargers up to 10 and then taking the total from 43 up to 49 and going under. I will 100% do that. But since I already have one teaser going, I don't like doing more than one teaser officially here. So I'm going to play the under. And the reason is Justin Herbert has been an under machine, like just an under machine in his career. And I don't entirely know why, but the charges are eight and four to the under in full game totals this season. They're 29 to the under since the start of last year. Justin Herbert is now 18 and seven to the under since the start of last season, including an 18 and five record to the under in his last 23 starts. And Sunday night football has been a dead under game this season. Historically dead under under 43 for one point one units for the Chiefs and the Chargers.”
Under: The stated-scope total was 36 (19+17); under 43 — won. (The stated-scope total was 36 (19+17); line 43)
“Like I've already bet the minus 13 and a half on the Hoosiers.”
IU 27, MIA 21 — Indiana Hoosiers margin +6 vs line -13.5; busts.
“but also play a Seattle minus nine and a half, plus 215.”
SEA 35, TB 38 — Seattle Seahawks margin -3 vs line -9.5; busts.
“The Chargers laying 2.5 at home against Denver.”
Chargers beat Broncos 23-20 on a last-second FG drive; margin of 3 covers -2.5. (Chargers 23, Broncos 20)
“I'm also gonna bet the Eagles minus 13 and a half because I could easily see them just blow this Cowboys team out.”
DAL 6, PHI 34 — Philadelphia Eagles margin +28 vs line -13.5; covers.
“Detroit at Green Bay, Green Bay three and a half. This was Simon Says. I will say this is the game I've bet the most on this week. I've enjoyed getting the money down at three and a half.”
GB 14, DET 24 — Green Bay Packers margin -10 vs line -3.5; busts.
“Detroit at Green Bay, Green Bay three and a half. This was Simon Says. I will say this is the game I've bet the most on this week. I've enjoyed getting the money down at three and a half. It's been getting closer and closer to three.”
GB 14, DET 24 — Green Bay Packers margin -10 vs line -3.5; busts.
“We love the Vikings here. Big balls, bet of the week. Big balls, bet of the week. So much pushback from our followers. Oh my God. I get it. People hate betting Kirk in primetime. We know we have to take this number. It's so inflated. Can I just say one thing? I think those prime time, there are systems that matter, that have data sets that are huge. There are gimmicks. This feels like a fucking gimmick. It is glaring though. I got to look it up because people keep posting it. But I think it was like two and nine against the spread in prime time games. Something crazy like that. But it's too big of a number in a matchup. And especially with Green Bay is the public darling. We knew – I'm on some chalk this week. I'm not going to lie. I actually flipped from the Cardinals to the Cowboys. I'm on the Cowboys now. The more tape I've watched, the more numbers I've looked into. This one I haven't changed. If anything, I feel even better about my position on the Vikings. The fact that Dalvin Cook is now back for this Vikings team, his run style is perfect for a matchup against this Green Bay run defense. They hate running backs with speed and power that go up the middle. That's one of the worst things they're defending Green Bay this year. That exactly what Dalvin Cook does He is a man with speed and power So looking at this across the board Chad just talked about it It moves up to seven Grab that seven if you can I worried about by the time you hear this we be back down to six and a half which still is fine I still happy taking a six and a half Just a pro versus shows game Like Chad talked about it. It's a primetime game. Everyone, all their money line parlays, all their teasers, everything is going to end Sunday night tied to this game. We're getting two, three points of value just because of that. The bookmakers, they had to pump this lineup just to, you know, factor in all that money coming in on those money line parlays and teasers so as long as you're getting six and a half i still love this number why did you flip on the cardinals and the cowboys”
GB 37, MIN 10 — Minnesota Vikings margin -27 vs line +6.5; busts.
“We got Spurs and the Thunder tonight, and that game is gonna be on ESPN, so that's gonna be awesome. Spurs, Thunder, we're gonna go with the Spurs on the money line. It's plus one zero five, so it's a $100 to make a $105. That is the play of the day. Let's go.”
SA 116, OKC 106 — San Antonio Spurs won; moneyline covers.
“Seahawks to score first and win. You can bet that outcome to combine bet at most major books, plus 125.”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Seattle Seahawks won; moneyline covers.
“Knicks on the Moneyline. They win Game 3 at home, Electric Atmosphere, Madison Square Garden. Knicks on the Moneyline. It's $100 to make $176. That is the play of the day.”
NY 111, SA 115 — New York Knicks lost; moneyline busts.
“I took Wisconsin at the very beginning of the week on the money line when it was priced around like minus 115.”
MICH 11, WISC 49 — Wisconsin Badgers won; moneyline covers.
“we're going to go with the Carolina Hurricanes tonight in the Stanley Cup Finals on the money line. They down 2 in the series to the Vegas Golden Knights So we going to go with the Canes Rob Brendamore friend of the show he the coach for the Hurricanes We have to back the Hurricanes So we're going to place a bet on the money line for the Hurricanes. It's $100 with a payout of $187. That is the play of the day.”
VGK 3, CAR 5 — Carolina Hurricanes won; moneyline covers.
“So give me the Chiefs. Give me Patrick Mahomes. Give me the [23:18] Chiefs to win from behind plus 175.”
PHI 40, KC 22 — Kansas City Chiefs lost; moneyline busts.
“Vegas in regulation minus 104, 1.04 units.”
Vegas won 9-3 in regulation. (Vegas won 9-3 in regulation)
“But give me the Detroit Lions plus 115 plus 120 at Carolina”
CAR 20, DET 0 — Detroit Lions lost; moneyline busts.
“So my Lakers, double digit dogs playing the Knicks in the garden, is absolutely crazy to me. I know it's gonna be a crazy environment, but I'm going with my Lakers. I mean, it's plus $3.75, so it's a $100 to make some change, to make $375. That is the play of the”
NY 112, LAL 100 — Los Angeles Lakers lost; moneyline busts.
“The Minnesota links on the road against the Atlanta dream. We're gonna roll with the links on the money line. It's a $100 to make a 100. That is the play of the day.”
ATL 92, MIN 96 — Minnesota Lynx won; moneyline covers.
“So we're gonna take the Chicago White Sox on the money line tonight against the Oakland a's,”
CHW 5, OAK 1 — Chicago White Sox beat Oakland Athletics 5-1; moneyline cashes. (CHW 5, OAK 1)
“But I'm just going to lay the Jews at minus 190. Not sweat the points. Just Phoenix Suns win the game, period.”
PHX 128, OKC 101 — Phoenix Suns won; moneyline covers.
“Steelers four and a half and I'll take the Moneyline two plus 180.”
CLE 13, PIT 10 — Pittsburgh Steelers lost outright 10-13 at the Browns; moneyline busts.
“Don't understand how they're plus money. I'm going to jump on it. Plus 105 for the Arcongo Moneyline. Expect Joan Vista to get back on the score sheet. Had a couple of chances in their last match. Couldn't get one in. But yeah, I got to back Congo here. Uzbekistan has not shown that they have any quality as far as at this level. DR Congo went through a very rigorous process and qualifying process to get here and I expect him to go out with a bang on the group stage and look for that win to be able to advance so plus 105 for DR Congo money line.”
Congo DR beat Uzbekistan 3-1; Congo DR ML won.
“So, yeah, give me the Jets at plus 120.”
NYJ 22, DAL 37 — New York Jets lost; moneyline busts.
“I'm going to go with the Carolina Panthers against the Jacksonville Jaguars. What do I want with these? Just quarterback uncertainty. The Jags are a mess right now. We know their defense is poor. Panthers' offense has showed signs of life of late. playing a little better. But the Jags, Lawrence might not play, and if he does, he might not be able to go full strength or he might not last. Didn't practice today. He might be down to C.J. Beathard. You already have Christian Kirk on IR. Zay Jones might not play. The offensive line is a mess. They can't run the ball. All the pressure's on Jacksonville here, and everything's falling apart internally. I could, you know, with the quarterback uncertainty, let's take a shot with the Panthers. Well, that's 2.30 for Carolina. at bet MGM. I like it. I was thinking about that one as well. You know, more fun than betting the spread with Carolina because you still never know what you're going to get. Although I thought it was promising what they did against Green Bay last week, but you know, not every team has Joe Barry on the other side. I'll go with the Atlanta Falcons plus 130 at the Chicago Bears. And it's Just as simple as I still think this Bear team is still a little green in terms of, you know, knowing how to win games. You've seen them blow some weeds. Seems like most of their games end up close in the fourth quarter. And Justin Fields has really struggled as a, you know, when it's a favorite or he's not getting more than a field goal on the spread. So I think the Bears, you know, this is still kind of a toss up game. You've talked about it. I think with Tyler Heineke, the turnover risk, they're more productive turnovers. He's probably going to be taking a risk if he turns it over, whereas Ritter, as we talked about, sometimes just gives the ball away in situations that there's no benefit or upside if he accomplished what he was trying to. So like the Falcons here, I can easily see them defeating the Bears. Just hope Arthur Smith comes with one of his better game plans because he's all over the place this season. So if you parlay the Panthers plus 230 at Jacksonville and the Falcons plus 130 at the Bears You get parlay odds of plus 659”
JAX 26, CAR 0 — Carolina Panthers lost; moneyline busts.
“I'm going to take it with the Dodgers here. Dodgers money line minus 142. We might need it against the bullpens here. You might need Otani and company to get hot and hit some bombs or so off this bullpen. I don't think it's going to be a blowout, but I could see it being a three to two or a four to three type of win here for the Dodgers. I'll take the Dodgers in the money line for minus 142 for 1.42 units.”
ARI 4, LAD 1 — Los Angeles Dodgers lost; moneyline busts.
“We're going with My Lakers on the money line tonight against the Houston Rockets. It's the first of two games that they'll play against the Rockets over the next three days. Huge, huge game for both teams. Lakers trying to hang on to that three seed in in in the Western Conference. The Rockets obviously wanna get to that slot. So big time game tonight. I'm rolling with my Lakers on the money line on the road. It's a $100 to make one twenty. It's a $100 to make one twenty. That is the play of the day.”
HOU 92, LAL 100 — Los Angeles Lakers won; moneyline covers.
“we're gonna roll with the Mets, and we're gonna go on the money line. Now it's plus $1.20, so a $100 to make a 120. That is the play of the day. The Mets in game four of the NLCS.”
LAD 10, NYM 2 — Mets lost 2-10 to Dodgers in NLCS Game 4; moneyline busts.
“I love the Jags on the money line at plus 140. I think they have probably a better shot at winning this game than the Bengals.”
CIN 33, JAX 25 — Jacksonville Jaguars lost; moneyline busts.
“I think Baltimore is the right play. [7:38] I hit the money line as soon as I could at like one 55.”
BAL 10, KC 17 — Baltimore Ravens lost; moneyline busts.
“is the atlanta falcons my falcons just give me the money line home against the packers it's minus 110”
ATL 25, GB 24 — Atlanta Falcons won; moneyline covers.
“for my first pick of the week eight sunday six-pack i'm going with the houston texans we'll call it money line minus 115 out there draft kings against that if you have to take a one one and a half that's fine too against the san francisco 49ers”
HOU 26, SF 15 — Houston Texans won; moneyline covers.
“I'm grabbing it right away. [34:39] Give me the 49ers minus 115 on the money line. [34:43] They are the better team.”
PHI 19, SF 42 — San Francisco 49ers won; moneyline covers.
“I bet it at minus 135, Miami Heat on the money line”
MIL 94, MIA 103 — Miami Heat won; moneyline covers.
“Again, it's juicy, but Dodgers money line minus 158 for 1.58 units.”
LAD 4, NYM 0 — Los Angeles Dodgers won; moneyline covers.
“So there's just a lot of reasons to bet the Dodgers here today up against the Phillies and the price is too good to pass up. Dodgers minus 120. Sorry, minus 115 for 1.15 units.”
LAD 6, PHI 9 — Los Angeles Dodgers lost; moneyline busts.
“I'm going with the Cubbies on the money line in Wrigley Field. I know it seems weird, but we've got to get a win, Smalls. We've got to get a win. I'll take it any way I can get it. So I'm going with the Cubs on the money line against my Yankees. It's $100 with a total payout of $163. That is the play of the day.”
CHC 0, NYY 2 — Chicago Cubs lost; moneyline busts.
“Now for me I betting Arkansas State money line I got it at plus 270 earlier today on the money line You can look at that number at bet MGM”
ARST 35, KSU 31 — Arkansas State won outright 35-31; ML +270 cashes.
“I'm just going to go for the draw at the biggest price in the 1x2 market and that's at plus 210.”
KOR 2, CZE 1 — KOR 2, CZE 1; draw misses.
“We're not going to mess with Team USA. USA men's national team is taking on Belgium. We're going to go in the other match, and we're going to roll with Nuno's team, Portugal, against Spain. Portugal's going to be the underdog. So we're going to take them on the money line in a can't-he-can't-lose bet. It's plus 186, so it's $100 with a total payout of $270. That is the play of the day”
POR 0, ESP 1 — Portugal lost; moneyline loses.
“But that's why I want to take a smaller shot with the Ravens as a Moneyline dog piece. I mean, you could also see Jair Alexander and Bakhtiari play for Green Bay, and then no one plays for the Ravens. But I trust Harbaugh on the spot to come up with something and rally the troops in front of a raucous home crowd. Plus 200 at BetMGM on the Moneyline. It's Baltimore, gentlemen.”
BAL 30, GB 31 — Baltimore Ravens lost; moneyline busts.
“and roll with Pat Costello's Phils out at Chavez Ravine taking on the dodgers. Now they won last night. They beat the dodgers last night, first of a three game set. I'm rolling with the Phils on the money line tonight to beat the Dodgers again. Can I change your mind on this? Go ahead. Because I don't think that's smart because the Phillies clinched the NLEs last night. We're partying. They're hungover. I don't think that a lot of those guys are gonna be starting tonight. It's minus one thirty five, so it's a $100 to make 74.”
LAD 6, PHI 9 — Philadelphia Phillies won; moneyline covers.
“game in group b is another tuesday at 3 p.m kickoff porto ac milan these teams are basically it's like a it's a pick them basically between the two of them porto plus 170 underdogs at home right now at BetMGM and AC Milan plus 155, the draw at plus 240. Bookmakers having a tough time picking these teams apart. Anthony, are you? I'm not actually. There's a bit of an injury issue crisis going on here for AC Milan that are starting to pile up. They did have an excellent comeback 3-2 win against Verona at the weekend that included a penalty and an own goal. A little bit lucky there. They lost the expected goals battle marginally. And given the fact they were down most of the match, pretty concerning that they didn't really create a ton of clear chances in that one. Milan's been really impressive in Serie A. They've won almost every single match they've played. They have the second best expected goal difference in the league behind Napoli. It's been an impressive start for Milan, but they've looked a lot shakier in the Champions League. And they were outplaying Atletico Madrid in that last match, but they looked a little bit out of their depth against Liverpool, and they struggled to cope once they went down a man and really gave that game away. So this is a desperation spot for both teams. Both teams need to win. The Most interesting thing here for Milan is the injury situation. Mike Mannion, the goalie for Milan, is out. He had a long injury. Teo Hernandez and Brahim Diaz tested positive for COVID. They may not play. Zlatan Ibrahimovic coming back from injury. Did feature a little bit over the weekend, but not expected to start. May come off the bench. Look at Porto's terrible loss to Liverpool. It's not the first time Porto's had trouble with Liverpool in Europe. Liverpool have kind of had their number over the recent years, pretty much blowing them out every single time. Don't know what it is about that matchup, but it's not been good for Porto. There were multiple goalie errors that led to goals. It was a lot of fluke goals that kind of came about for Liverpool. They weren't quite as bad. Porto wasn't, as the numbers suggest. They also get Pepe back in the middle of their defense. Chancel Mbembe may not play. He's questionable. But the Porto improved defense. they'll be able to sit deep and absorb pressure, hit Milan on the counter. And I really don't think Milan is built to go get a result here away from home. So I like Porto. I think they're a little undervalued and I think they were unlucky to not take any points from their first group match. So give me Porto on the draw no bet line minus 115. Yeah, I'm actually going to bet Milan here. I'm just hoping the AC Milan that we've seen in Serie A shows up in Champions League.”
FCP 1, MIL 0 — AC Milan lost; moneyline loses.
“We got the wolves on the road against the sixers. Second night of a back to back for the wolves. Disappointing l that they took in Detroit where, let's just say Jalen Doran went off to say the least. I I don't think it'll be that again tonight for the wolves. So I'm taking the wolves on the money line. It's plus $1.15, so a $100 to make a $115. That is the play of the day.”
PHI 115, MIN 103 — Minnesota Timberwolves lost; moneyline busts.
“We're gonna roll with Louisville over Arkansas tonight. Louisville playing on the road against Arkansas. That's actually on our air on ESPN. 07:30 seven fifth 07:15 tonight. Just wanna make sure I get the time right. It's a $100 to make 57. That is the play of the day. Louisville on the money line.”
ARK 89, LOU 80 — Louisville Cardinals lost; moneyline busts.
“So we're gonna roll with the Atlanta Hawks on the money line. It's a $100 to make 87.”
ATL 112, DET 120 — Atlanta Hawks lost; moneyline busts.
“I'm going with the Oregon money line.”
TTU 0, ORE 23 — Oregon Ducks won; moneyline covers.
“I bet the Cowboys on the money line at plus 240.”
PHI 24, DAL 20 — Dallas Cowboys lost; moneyline busts.
“You can't get it in the action app yet, but I bet both, the cowboys plus seven and the cowboys on the money line at plus two forty.”
PHI 24, DAL 20 — Dallas Cowboys lost; moneyline busts.
“matchup. We have the Dallas cowboys, seven point underdogs on the road against the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. The, money line number is plus two forty for the Cowboys. This is germane to the show because the show is gonna be a lot about underdogs and pricing and some of the trends that have been changing, and it speaks to a lot of the work that we've talked about a couple times on the show throughout the year. But a lot of stuff I've been focusing on, and now you've been thinking about it too. And Evan's gonna be on to break it down for us. But before we dig more deeply into that intro, immediately, plus seven, I bet that I bet the plus two forty. I know you did too.”
PHI 24, DAL 20 — Dallas Cowboys lost; moneyline busts.
“So y'all know what we did last night. We faded the Chicago white sox after it got a win on Yankees on Monday night, and the Yankees came through in fine fashion. Juan So to with three home runs accounted for all the Yankee scores. So tonight, what are we gonna do? We're fade the White Sox again. We're fading the Chicago White Sox once again. I know it is minus two forty, but it's a sure bet as you go have out there in sports. And I'm trying to make y'all money, not lose y'all money. Fade the Chicago White Sox public service announcement.”
NYY 10, CHW 2 — New York Yankees won 10-2; moneyline cashes.
“Knicks underdogs early on in the season. But I'm rolling with the Knicks. The Cavs aren't healthy, and I don't trust them defensively anyway. So I'm rolling with the Knicks plus one zero five on the money line. So it's a $100 to make a $105. That is the play of the day, and Evan Cohen does not like it.”
NY 119, CLE 111 — New York Knicks won; moneyline covers.
“but what you want with a money line dog ideally um is uncertainty and we have that here i don't who who knows what the patriots are going to look like um they're they're and they're just a mess they're they're a mess belichick has lost it uh the team has lost it um the giants are still fighting at least uh and yeah give me the new york giants with all the uncertainty Yeah that that even that plus three was looking pretty tempting I mean the Patriots shouldn be favored on the road versus anyone by that by that margin But at the same time the Giants got so lucky with six turnovers I mean this is just just a shit show so yeah i i think this is kind of the perfect time to to take a money line dog i go with the buffalo bills here simply because uh i think they can win but i also you know the eagles when they do win they sim they don't it doesn't ever seem to come down to a field goal anyway it's always like you know with that gavis by five and the chiefs by four it's like it's one of those teams that I don't mind just taking the money line here with Buffalo. You already broke it down, so I'm not going to belabor the point, but Buffalo is plus 145 on the money line and the G-men are plus 140.”
NYG 10, NE 7 — New York Giants won; moneyline covers.
“one here where are you going with your money line dog uh let's go with the pats feisty pats i i But they're playing better. Drake May used his legs last week a lot more, even though I thought they weren't going to go that route anymore. Still playing hard. Chargers going across the country here, outdoors. I think their defense is trending down. They still can really run the ball consistently The Pats will probably play more man than zone here That is what you need to do against the Chargers I think they got a puncher's chance here. So let's go with Drake May and the Pats at home. And what, you know, this is, again, a game where Chargers need to win. Pats can treat this as a Super Bowl play a little looser. Let's go with New England. yeah they're catching a lot of sharp money too i mean i was on the wrong side of them like of course i picked the one big favorite that doesn't cover last week with the bills but yeah this is that just that kind of year um but i you know i did say drake may is playing a lot better um so if they if they cover they pull the upset it's going to be because of him uh and i do like that they they play man covered i think that's that's that's the way you got to beat the charges because that kind of takes their tight ends out of the game as an option and it really I mean, Herbert is 6 of 23 targeting Quentin Johnston against man coverage, 9 of 20 targeting Josh Palmer. And Palmer is essentially his second best option against man after McConkie. So, yeah, it could get real tight for the Chargers here. Saturday going across the country just could take it for granted a little. They kind of haven't really been in some of the – I mean, they probably should have lost to the Broncos if they don't get that free kick that just turns the entire momentum of the game around. So, yeah, I like that one. I'm going to go with the Pittsburgh Steelers here. This is, I mean, no, this is, I don't think this is going to be popular at all because as Chiefs, all they do is win every week and everyone's going to tell you that stat about Patrick Mahomes if he's, you know, minus three or less. But look at Mike Tomlin as an underdog in his career. I mean, as a money line dog from October on. So take out the first month of the season. He's 43 and 33. straight up as a dog. So he's winning. He's 10 games over 500 outright as an underdog. My kids want to have a good Christmas. Off a loss, 21-14, 60%. Home dog. I think you mentioned this earlier. 19-10 straight up as an underdog for Mike Tomlin, 66%. 2-0 this season. So if the Chiefs do lose the game, I just don't. Listen, they're great. They'll probably just find a way to win another Super Bowl. but they're not a 15 and like they're not a 16 and one team. Like they're getting so lucky. I think Pittsburgh can get it done here So yeah I think you think they going to win the game too I agree Going Steelers plus 135 The parlay on that is let see you got Patriots plus 185 Steelers plus 135 plus 573”
NE 7, LAC 40 — New England Patriots lost; moneyline busts.
“I'm going to ride with the rah-rah Mike Tomlin spot one more time. I gotta be honest. I can't believe we're getting a rah-rah Mike Tomlin spot. Pittsburgh is home against the Patriots. I'm gonna cut you off because I laugh at that all the time. Like, that's what the hell we pay to do. I had to double and triple check this. The Patriots are road favorites? Did we watch the same Patriots today? New England never showed up. They don't have a coaching staff. They don't have an offense. Bill Belichick wants to fire the offensive coordinator, but it's himself. I don't think they can do that. Oh, yeah, we got him. Yeah, we'll see. We'll see who's got who. It was messy. The Patriots did not look good in that game. Oh, and Mac Jones has a back injury now, apparently. Exactly. And that was my other thing here is how great Mac is, but we certainly rather have him than the other options here. So that's the other angle that I have here is that Mac Jones... injury if you know you got to get ahead of that because maybe he ends up missing maybe he doesn't but plays through and we've seen quarterbacks like that a back injury you're much less mobile the offensive line is moving pieces around the Steelers have a good pass rush although must be noted TJ Watt may also miss it sounds like he has a possibly a torn pectoral and again it's TJ Watt he might just play through that too for all that we know but all the Mike Tomlin underdog numbers Steelers are plus 105.”
PIT 14, NE 17 — Pittsburgh Steelers lost; moneyline busts.
“Sean Payton and the Saints plus 105 in Philly are going to be my money line dog.”
PHI 40, NO 29 — New Orleans Saints lost; moneyline busts.
“So I'm going pacers on the money line [42:27] that pays out at plus one forty. That is the play of the day.”
IND 104, CLE 126 — Indiana Pacers lost; moneyline busts.
“going to take the 10 seed from this region, the Colorado Buffaloes. And I am going to take them Moneyline versus Boise State and then again try to roll them up on the Moneyline in their future games.”
MARQ 81, COLO 77 (Round of 32) — Colorado beat Boise State 60-53 (First Four) and beat Florida 102-100 in OT (Round of 64), but lost to Marquette 81-77 in the Round of 32 -- eliminated before reaching the Sweet 16; moneyline rollover busts. (Colorado W vs Boise State 60-53, W vs Florida 102-100 (OT), L vs Marquette 81-77 (Round of 32) -- rollover to Sweet 16 fails)
“Colts money line plus 115 or better. Okay. I bet it at plus 115 tonight, plus 115, half a unit on the money line.”
ARI 16, IND 22 — Indianapolis Colts won; moneyline covers.
Spread & total CLV in points vs the closing line, verified during the data audit. Moneylines are ranked by implied-probability movement between the aired (or morning) price and the close — cent differences mislead at longshot odds — and every listed mover was cross-checked against the raw snapshot archive. How we measure this.