won
Georgia State +17 closed +6.75 · CLV +10.3
“I'm already on Georgia State plus 17. So let's hope Quad Brown can get it done.”
GAST 31, UL 34 — Georgia State Panthers margin -3 vs line +17; covers.
Steam moves
When the market moves toward a pick after it airs, the money agreed with it. These are the 25 biggest spread and total moves in each direction across 5,148 captured picks — the calls the market chased, and the ones it ran from.
The market chased these
biggest positive CLV · went 20-5 straight up won
Under 57 closed +47.5 · CLV +9.5
“that has me betting under 57”
ISU 14, UL 31 — Combined 45; under 57 covers.
lost
Under 45.5 closed +37.5 · CLV +8
“it's another division under cowboys eagles give me the under 45 and a half”
PHI 41, DAL 7 — Combined 48; under 45.5 busts.
won
Over 42.5 closed +50.25 · CLV +7.8
“Love the over, though. [29:29] If that's true and there's not going to be snow and not going to be crazy shit happening during the game, [29:33] take that value and take the over. [29:35] I already grabbed it at 41.5, 41. [29:38] It's up to 42.5 in a bunch of books. [29:40] Key number, I'd still grab it there.”
BUF 31, CLE 23 — Combined 54; over 42.5 covers.
won
Under 42.5 closed +35 · CLV +7.5
“let's start with the browns game under this week 49ers at browns under 42 and a”
CLE 8, SF 26 — Combined 34; under 42.5 covers.
won
Under 40.5 closed +33 · CLV +7.5
“that's where I'm going with my total. [52:22] under 40 and a half in Cleveland.”
CLE 3, MIA 20 — Combined 23; under 40.5 covers.
won
Chiefs -1 closed -8.5 · CLV +7.5
“I'm going to take the Chiefs minus one against the Dolphins, obviously in a neutral field here.”
KC 21, MIA 14 — Kansas City Chiefs margin +7 vs line -1; covers.
lost
Los Angeles Rams -7 · Hard Rock Bet closed -14 · CLV +7
“i'm taking the rams in a get right spot against a team that has no answers defensively and”
DEN 19, LAC 3 — Los Angeles Chargers margin -16 vs line -7; busts.
lost
Los Angeles Rams -7 · Hard Rock Bet closed -14 · CLV +7
“yeah i'm right there with you i i like the rams obviously um they they let me down last night in”
DEN 19, LAC 3 — Los Angeles Chargers margin -16 vs line -7; busts.
won
Minnesota Vikings -5.5 · Hard Rock Bet* closed -12.5 · CLV +7
“You can get Minnesota minus five and a half right now. Why would we not take that? Like they're playing for real.”
MIN 16, GB 3 — Minnesota Vikings margin +13 vs line -5.5; covers.
won
Chiefs -1.5 closed -8.5 · CLV +7
“I'm going with the Kansas City Chiefs minus one and a half against the Miami Dolphins in Germany.”
KC 21, MIA 14 — Kansas City Chiefs margin +7 vs line -1.5; covers.
won
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 closed -8.5 · CLV +7
“I just actually end up putting a little bit more on it at the minus one and a half. And Good for you. Yeah. I'm just gonna trust Mahomes.”
KC 21, MIA 14 — Kansas City Chiefs margin +7 vs line -1.5; covers.
won
Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 closed -8.5 · CLV +7
“I like Kansas city. I don't typically put the chiefs in Nick's picks because they're not a great covering team, but they are also not typically favored by less than a field goal.”
KC 21, MIA 14 — Kansas City Chiefs margin +7 vs line -1.5; covers.
won
Under 42 closed +35 · CLV +7
“I took the Ravens under against the Steelers for this coming week. [40:30] I took that on the look ahead at 42.”
BAL 13, PIT 16 — Combined 29; under 42 covers.
won
Kansas City Chiefs PK 0 closed -7 · CLV +7
“but as a professional, I will be on the Chiefs at home at a pick.”
KC 13, GB 7 — Kansas City Chiefs margin +6 vs line +0; covers.
lost
Los Angeles Rams -7.5 · Hard Rock Bet* closed -14 · CLV +6.5
“we have locked it in at seven and a half in the contest”
DEN 19, LAC 3 — Los Angeles Chargers margin -16 vs line -7.5; busts.
won
Vikings -6 closed -12.5 · CLV +6.5
“i bet some vikings minus six which was like scary knowing that you could be betting max prosner minus six”
MIN 16, GB 3 — Minnesota Vikings margin +13 vs line -6; covers.
lost
Los Angeles Rams -7.5 · Hard Rock Bet* closed -14 · CLV +6.5
“Still good with it. Still like it. Still want to put it in the contest.”
DEN 19, LAC 3 — Los Angeles Chargers margin -16 vs line -7.5; busts.
won
Vikings -6 closed -12.5 · CLV +6.5
“I'm going with the Minnesota Vikings minus six at home against the Green Bay Packers.”
MIN 16, GB 3 — Minnesota Vikings margin +13 vs line -6; covers.
won
Chiefs -2 closed -8.5 · CLV +6.5
“give me the chiefs minus two against the dolphins”
KC 21, MIA 14 — Kansas City Chiefs margin +7 vs line -2; covers.
won
Minnesota Vikings -6.5 · Hard Rock Bet* closed -12.5 · CLV +6
“But I would still take this long. It's under seven on Minnesota.”
MIN 16, GB 3 — Minnesota Vikings margin +13 vs line -6.5; covers.
won
Minnesota Vikings -6.5 · Hard Rock Bet* closed -12.5 · CLV +6
“um we're sticking with minnesota and the brian flores defense here”
MIN 16, GB 3 — Minnesota Vikings margin +13 vs line -6.5; covers.
won
Houston Texans +3.5 · Hard Rock Bet* closed -2.5 · CLV +6
“obviously we're going to take houston at plus three and a half given the way the lines have moved uh over the course of the week with lamar jackson and this was a move that you predicted on tuesday as simon says do we still put it in the contest yep locking in that's a quick one three and a half got to take for Houston”
BAL 10, HOU 44 — Houston Texans margin +34 vs line +3.5; covers.
won
Houston Texans +3.5 · Hard Rock Bet* closed -2.5 · CLV +6
“this was a move that you predicted on tuesday as simon says do we still put it in the contest yep locking in that's a quick one three and a half got to take for Houston”
BAL 10, HOU 44 — Houston Texans margin +34 vs line +3.5; covers.
won
Houston Texans +3.5 · Hard Rock Bet closed -2.5 · CLV +6
“of game simon says grab the three and a half right now because i'm gonna trust that movement even if”
BAL 10, HOU 44 — Houston Texans margin +34 vs line +3.5; covers.
The market ran from these
biggest negative CLV · went 4-21 straight up lost
Broncos +6 · BetMGM closed +16.5 · CLV -10.5
“I am going with the Denver Broncos plus six at MGM at home against the New Orleans Saints.”
DEN 3, NO 31 — Denver Broncos margin -28 vs line +6; busts.
lost
Western Kentucky -14 closed -3.5 · CLV -10.5
“I'm going Western Kentucky minus 14. I know the offense looked really bad last week.”
WKU 24, LIB 30 — Western Kentucky Hilltoppers margin -6 vs line -14; busts.
lost
OVER 161.5 closed +153 · CLV -8.5
“I will ride with the over 161.5.”
ARK 85, COLG 68 — Combined 153; over 161.5 busts.
lost
Over 154.5 · ESPN Bet closed +146.75 · CLV -7.7
“The total is set at 154.5. Joe, what do you like in this game? Money's been flowing on the over. We're following the money over 154.5.”
PUR 75, HPU 63 — Combined 138; over 154.5 busts.
lost
Over 153.5 (High Point vs Purdue) closed +146.75 · CLV -6.7
“Two totals I like quite a bit, High Point and Purdue the over. I'm actually surprised this one hasn't gone up from one fifty three and a half.”
PUR 75, HPU 63 — Combined 138; over 153.5 busts.
lost
Bills -5.5 (+225) closed +1 · CLV -6.5
“Bills minus 5.5, plus 225.”
DEN 33, BUF 30 — Buffalo Bills margin -3 vs line -5.5; busts.
lost
Indiana Hoosiers -13.5 · Hard Rock Bet* closed -7.5 · CLV -6
“Like I've already bet the minus 13 and a half on the Hoosiers.”
IU 27, MIA 21 — Indiana Hoosiers margin +6 vs line -13.5; busts.
lost
Seahawks -9.5 (+215) closed -3.5 · CLV -6
“but also play a Seattle minus nine and a half, plus 215.”
SEA 35, TB 38 — Seattle Seahawks margin -3 vs line -9.5; busts.
won
Philadelphia Eagles -13.5 closed -7.5 · CLV -6
“I'm also gonna bet the Eagles minus 13 and a half because I could easily see them just blow this Cowboys team out.”
DAL 6, PHI 34 — Philadelphia Eagles margin +28 vs line -13.5; covers.
lost
Green Bay Packers -3.5 closed +2.5 · CLV -6
“Detroit at Green Bay, Green Bay three and a half. This was Simon Says. I will say this is the game I've bet the most on this week. I've enjoyed getting the money down at three and a half.”
GB 14, DET 24 — Green Bay Packers margin -10 vs line -3.5; busts.
lost
Green Bay Packers -3.5 closed +2.5 · CLV -6
“I'd grab it now, people. I do think once everything is clear with Jordan Love, this does go down to three”
GB 14, DET 24 — Green Bay Packers margin -10 vs line -3.5; busts.
lost
Under 38 closed +44 · CLV -6
“This is one of my favorite under bets.”
JAX 17, NYG 23 — Combined 40; under 38 busts.
lost
Minnesota Vikings +6.5 closed +12.5 · CLV -6
“Grab that seven if you can”
GB 37, MIN 10 — Minnesota Vikings margin -27 vs line +6.5; busts.
lost
Minnesota Vikings +6.5 closed +12.5 · CLV -6
“We love the Vikings here.”
GB 37, MIN 10 — Minnesota Vikings margin -27 vs line +6.5; busts.
won
Cowboys -1.5 closed +4.5 · CLV -6
“i'm going to go with is the Dallas Cowboys minus one and a half.”
MIN 16, DAL 20 — Dallas Cowboys margin +4 vs line -1.5; covers.
lost
Houston Texans +14 closed +20 · CLV -6
“I've already bet the plus 14 against Arizona next week with this Houston [12:21] team just in case he does come back I can see that line dropping”
ARI 31, HOU 5 — Houston Texans margin -26 vs line +14; busts.
won
USC -2.5 · BetMGM closed +3.5 · CLV -6
“I took some USC minus three.”
UCLA 38, USC 43 — USC Trojans margin +5 vs line -2.5; covers.
won
Under 152 · Hard Rock Bet* closed +157.5 · CLV -5.5
“So Long Island and Arizona, this is a dead nut under 152.”
ARIZ 92, LIU 58 — Combined 150; under 152 covers.
lost
Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 · Hard Rock Bet* closed +3 · CLV -5.5
“But two and a half, I'll still be on Pittsburgh.”
CHI 31, PIT 28 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -3 vs line -2.5; busts.
lost
Under 30.5 (+190) closed +36 · CLV -5.5
“30 and a half plus 190 we going under 27 and a half plus 290”
CLE 17, MIN 21 — Combined 38; under 30.5 busts.
lost
LSU +1.5 · ESPN Bet closed +7 · CLV -5.5
“I like LSU plus the point and a half.”
MISS 24, LSU 19 — LSU Tigers margin -5 vs line +1.5; busts.
lost
Bears -6.5 (alt) (+250) · BetMGM closed -1 · CLV -5.5
“Bears minus 6.5 plus 250 on the outline.”
CHI 24, MIN 27 — Chicago Bears margin -3 vs line -6.5; busts.
lost
Ravens -6.5 (+215) closed -1 · CLV -5.5
“I will also play Ravens minus six and a half, plus 215.”
BUF 27, BAL 25 — Baltimore Ravens margin -2 vs line -6.5; busts.
lost
Houston Texans -2.5 closed +3 · CLV -5.5
“I put a little bet now just at 2 and a half just in case he does come back and all of sudden this balloon's up to three and a half, four.”
HOU 22, CLE 36 — Houston Texans margin -14 vs line -2.5; busts.
lost
Houston Texans -2.5 closed +3 · CLV -5.5
“I love this pick, and I love that we're getting it two and a half.”
HOU 22, CLE 36 — Houston Texans margin -14 vs line -2.5; busts.
CLV in points vs the closing line; every extreme value here was individually verified during the data audit. How we measure this.