Playmaker and iHeartPodcasts · tracking: Full Episode
“[22:36] Before we move on, Kendra, best way to bet the Philadelphia Eagles. [22:42] What would you what would you say? [22:44] They're under. I just think their schedule is too tough and the division is catching up quick. [22:48] Under 10 and a half. Very much juiced. Minus 140 if you want to take the under on that. [22:53] But it's going to be really tough for them to surpass that.”
“[22:55] I'll take Lane Johnson's word, Saquon Barkley over 1099 and a half in terms of his rushing yards. [23:02] He hit the over on that last year and he wasn't even all that good.”
“[47:08] I really like Sonny Stiles, Kendra. [47:10] I think the best way to bet this team is defensive rookie of the year, [47:14] 8-1, Sonny Stiles. [47:15] That would be my bet on the commanders.”
“[52:03] that regard. I'm all in. [52:05] Connor's all in. I think the best way to bet [52:07] them is to win the division [52:08] plus 215. You can [52:11] find that Kendra.”
“[54:29] That was what mine was going to be because I had given out the Giants over so many times. [54:33] So I'm with you on that. [54:34] but I've already logged the Giants over seven and a half into the app. [54:37] It's currently minus 110.”
“[54:39] Another thing that I do every season, [54:42] I don't know if I did this with you guys last year, [54:43] but I know I did it on my other show. [54:46] I like to pick a rookie receiver week one for an anytime. [54:50] I think that there's a lot of noise trying to cancel out my boy, [54:54] Makai Lemon right now, [54:55] but I'm going to give out an anytime week one against Washington for him. [54:58] I hit huge with Xavier Worthy for two touchdowns anytime in his first game [55:04] ever. [55:04] So I'm running it back. [55:05] We're going to go with Makai Lemon for an anytime as well.”
“[17:23] So I think the best way to bet the Bills is for them to go and win the division.”
“[21:26] Would you bet Buffalo missed the playoffs? [21:28] Yeah. [21:29] I feel like if you're like so committed to their under, [21:33] then you might as well take it a step further. [21:35] It's literally just the schedule. [21:37] I respect Josh Allen. [21:38] I respect who he is. [21:39] I'm just so sick of having the conversation of he's the best ever. [21:43] And I think that most of that is their fans [21:45] and the fact that their fans are insane. [21:46] But I just do not believe in this team this season [21:50] for everything that I just said. [21:52] And it's hard to convince people of that [21:54] because they do hit that win total every single year. [21:57] and he is incredible and pulls games out of his ass. [21:59] But new coach, I just, it's a big question mark for me [22:03] in a season where I think the AFC is going to be so hungry. [22:07] Plus 255 to miss the playoffs.”
“[22:32] So, John, you're willing to lay the juice on that? [22:35] They're minus 136 to win the division. [22:37] Yeah, because of the fact that I think the schedule is going to really hurt [22:42] those top two teams in the AFC East.”
“[42:31] And the best way to bet them. [42:33] I mean, based on our conversation, it sounds like under nothing, [42:36] under 10 and a half wins. [42:37] I would actually take that a step further, guys. [42:39] I would go, I would sell a game under nine and a half plus one 25.”
“[42:43] John, what about you? [42:44] You're going to sell it? I mean, I don't love this, but I'd go miss the playoffs. [42:48] I would just follow the trends of Super Bowl losers and the hangover that is real and spectacular. [42:54] Again, Patriots are a better team on paper, but there's some elements you don't like. [42:58] I'll say miss the playoffs.”
“[43:03] You know my pod bet, Kravitz. [43:05] I'm riding the Drake May over five and a half rushing touchdowns into the ground. [43:09] Oh, I like that a lot. [43:11] You want to get in our pod bet? [43:13] Yeah. [43:13] We bet them three and a half. [43:15] I got them three and a half. [43:16] Yeah, but the number was better at five and a half. [43:20] So that's what I'm writing. [43:21] She's trying to get that monster payout. [43:23] What's the plus money on that, Kendra? [43:24] I can tell you what it is right now. [43:26] One second. [43:27] I have it in three and a half, but five and a half was DraftKings, [43:30] so we put five and a half.”
“[1:06:58] Oh, what do I want to do? [1:07:00] What do I want to do? [1:07:01] Jets on their five and a half wins. [1:07:03] Aaron Gwynn is the head coach. [1:07:05] Gino Smith is the quarterback. [1:07:06] and I've said on their five and a half wins.”
“[1:07:09] All right, I'll piggyback off of that. [1:07:11] Jets to finish third plus 100, [1:07:13] which both of these could happen, by the way.”
“[1:04:13] Best way to bet them for me would be plus three and a half week one [1:04:16] against the Raiders with the mystery that I've talked about here.”
“[43:03] You know my pod bet, Kravitz. [43:05] I'm riding the Drake May over five and a half rushing touchdowns into the ground. [43:09] Oh, I like that a lot. [43:11] You want to get in our pod bet? [43:13] Yeah. [43:13] We bet them three and a half. [43:15] I got them three and a half. [43:16] Yeah, but the number was better at five and a half. [43:20] So that's what I'm writing. [43:21] She's trying to get that monster payout. [43:23] What's the plus money on that, Kendra? [43:24] I can tell you what it is right now. [43:26] One second. [43:27] I have it in three and a half, but five and a half was DraftKings, [43:30] so we put five and a half. [43:31] Yeah, I think three and a half was like minus 105, [43:34] but that just felt like a layup.”
“[54:30] But this is the only way to bet that you got to get creative. [54:32] If you're going to bet the jets, Kendra, you, uh, you like they're over [54:36] sort of, I think. [54:38] And early's Kenyan [54:40] Sadiq overs on touchdowns. [54:41] What about you, John? You've planted [54:43] the flag on the under. [54:45] Under big, and I'll take it a step forward. [54:50] I don't think they're going to end up with the [54:52] worst record in the league, but I'm going to go [54:53] and bet them to do it, because the number is really, really [54:55] good. And it's the Jets.”
“[27:09] I have already bet the Texans plus one and a half against Buffalo in week one at home. [27:15] This is something that Evan Abrams and I tracked and targeted when the schedules came out, [27:20] so that one is already in the app.”
“[49:43] So I'm betting Chris Rodriguez week one anytime on it.”
“[52:09] Alright, I'm not saying this just to suck up [52:10] to you guys, but I think the best way to bet [52:12] the Jags this year... I have a couple. [52:14] I'll save one for the end of the episode. [52:16] But let's go all in. 30-1 [52:18] to win the Super Bowl. Those odds”
“[59:13] So for me, Kendrick. [59:14] Carnell Tate offensive rookie of the year? [59:16] Okay, I like that. [59:17] I think, is that, would you say, best way to bet the Titans? [59:20] Carnell Tate offensive rookie of the year? [59:22] I think so. [59:23] I don't mind that at all.”
“[59:55] this is one of those bets where I think, I think it's smart to pick a couple of teams [1:00:00] that nobody expects to make it to the post season. Just plant your flag to use the branding of this [1:00:06] show on those teams at a really good number. The Titans plus five 50 to be a wild card team is a [1:00:14] really fun look. Now it's specifically to make the wild card. You actually get a better number on [1:00:19] them as specifically a wild card then to make the playoffs is plus 340 they're not winning this [1:00:25] division if they sneak in it'll be via the wild card plus 550 titans make the playoffs i'll cross [1:00:32] my fingers on that one uh though it'll be a long shot jamal st cyr sports anchor for wjxt4 in”
“[1:02:53] nobody expected it I don't mind it at all for me I'm going to go over on your Jacksonville Jaguars [1:02:59] but right now the over over under sitting at eight and a half juice to the over I want to kick this [1:03:05] up to nine and a half and take the plus 120. I don't expect another 13 wins this year, but I do”
“[9:30] And if you say you do, you're full of shit, which is 90 percent of the reason why I bet the Falcons to win the division is because they just have the longest odds. [9:39] And if we don't know, give me the longest odds.”
“[21:58] Best way to bet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. [22:02] I'm out on the Bucs this year [22:04] I'll say it's under their win total [22:06] under 8.5 wins for the [22:08] Tampa Bay Buccaneers I've already placed it in the app”
“[47:14] Pat, over-under for the Saints sitting at 7.5. [47:18] Would you take the over or the under on them season long? [47:22] I feel the same way about this whole division. [47:24] It's insane. [47:25] They're just all like, oh, they could be good. [47:26] They could suck. [47:27] I literally think everything we were talking about, [47:30] and you talked about the odds being as close as they are. [47:33] Any team in this division could shock everyone and be really good [47:37] or just suck out loud. [47:39] I think I'm going to take the over with New Orleans”
“[48:00] Um, I, it's already tracking in the action app as we speak, ladies and germs. [48:05] I, um, I'm going to hedge my bets on, on new Orleans here and just bet Kellen Moore to [48:12] win coach of the year at 12 to one”
“[55:10] plant my flag here okay you really planted your flag on that thing i will start with also my best [55:16] way to bet the falcons which is just for them to win the division this crappy division and why not [55:21] them why not now division winners four to one on the atlanta falcons”
“[34:44] Best way to bet the Carolina Panthers in 2026 guys, I'm just going to roll back. What, [34:46] uh, what worked for us? Kendra sold us properly on the Panthers last year. I bought in and they [34:51] made me money. I, uh, I got the, um, the end of the year wrapped how your year in betting went [34:58] from the action network app and the Carolina Panthers made me more money than any other team [35:03] in the NFL way better than the Spotify wrapped by the way. So thank you, Kendra, for walking me [35:09] into that. I'm just going to continue where we left off Panthers week one plus two and a half [35:12] against the bears. So that's right. That's how I, cause I have no idea what this team is going to [35:17] do this year so i'll just bet them week one and and we'll just kind of roll from there”
“[48:34] I'm going to triple, quadruple down, whatever you want to call it, [48:38] on the Lions winning this division, plus 170. [48:40] It's my favorite bet for the division out there.”
“[31:23] I think the best way to bet the Packers is under nine and a half wins. [31:26] You can get that at plus 110. [31:27] And this needs to be a pod bet.”
“[49:37] And I think things are going to get shaken up again in the NFC North. [49:41] I'm betting the Vikings at five to one. [49:43] I've already logged this in the app in Kyler.”
“[12:21] I actually bought out of my Falcons divisional future ticket, [12:25] not the Super Bowl one. [12:27] That one can ride into the sunset. [12:28] But the divisional future ticket I bought out of [12:32] and then bought it back at just a lower price for myself. [12:36] a lower unit size because I still believe it. [12:39] I believe in my Falcons love I have, [12:43] and I put it out there enough now that whether I like it or not, [12:46] this has become part of my football brand for 2026,”
“[55:52] You can take your pick between the Bengals over the nine and a half. [55:55] It's still available out there. [55:56] I think it's probably going to disappear rather soon, and it's a minus 160.”
“[47:33] Kendra is all over them. [47:34] It's Kendra and Jimmy Haslam, the Browns owner. [47:37] The only two people I know taking the over on them this year. [47:40] Do you want to talk to this when I picked the Panthers to their over last year and them [47:44] to win the division? [47:45] So suck me. [47:46] kravitz i did come around on carolina uh you nailed that one uh but that does not change my [47:52] opinion that the browns stink so joe do you want to talk any sense into kendra are you with her on [47:57] this they're over under sitting at all no no no no don't do this to me i don't think the browns [48:00] are gonna be good i think the browns are gonna win six games don't that's why i i get that i i [48:04] think that's a bad well she's only over on the five and a half then so i am not i'm not trying [48:09] to overrate your love for the browns but um i uh yeah i don't think that's a good bet joe where do”
“[56:09] Yeah, to Kendra's point, that 9.5 over I'm in on, I just hate the juice. [56:14] So if I'm going to be in, I'm all in. [56:17] Give me the division winner plus 203.”
“[56:26] I think, and I would take it a step further. [56:29] I would take them to just win the AFC.”
“[56:55] You can bet Ravens Bengals finished top two, not in any particular order. [57:01] This is not an exact outcome. [57:02] This is just that those two teams will be first and second place in the division at even money. [57:07] And that is my favorite way to fade the Steelers in the Browns.”
“[44:03] I'm not positive on the Steelers one of the first bets i made when the schedules were released was or when the wind [44:05] totals were released i should say was the steelers under eight and a half wins”
“[58:47] Now, she did make it sound like the Miami Dolphins were going to win the Super Bowl. [58:52] But even though she's the clairvoyant one, I can't buy into that. [58:57] We had fire. [58:58] We had water. [59:00] The Super Bowl is in Los Angeles. [59:03] The Chargers have a lightning bolt. [59:06] I feel like I got to do something with the L.A. Chargers, but I don't really think they're going to win the Super Bowl. [59:11] I'm kind of buying at least to a degree. [59:13] you have to buy into the fact that the Rams have the most loaded roster in the NFL. [59:17] So this will be the only position I take on the Rams because they are overpriced pretty much everywhere else. [59:22] Rams over Chargers is 75 to 1. [59:26] The all LA Super Bowl held at SoFi Stadium.”
“[19:31] But seven and a half is low enough that I'm willing to take the risk on it and to jump on that, where if they go eight, nine or if they go nine and eight, they just barely get into the playoffs.”
“[35:32] my pick that i like for the nfc south is the team that's right above them in the odds [35:37] i love the panthers at plus 310”
“[55:43] I'm going to get this one out of the way because it's going to otherwise sound like I'm stealing from our great guest Joe DeLeon. [55:48] I like Darian Mensah and the Heisman as well. [55:52] 12-1 on DraftKings. [55:54] The last four Heisman winners have been transfer portal babies, so there's some sort of trend that's forming there. [56:01] We also have a healthy rotation of different conferences that have been represented over the last couple of years. [56:06] everybody but the ACC. [56:08] So it's their turn to step right up. [56:11] He's got elite weaponry with Malachi Tony. [56:13] The team should be good. [56:14] He checks a lot of those boxes for me. [56:16] So I'm with you, Joe. [56:18] Let's go ahead and hammer that Darian Mensah future bet.”
“[56:22] Yeah, I think that I was debating maybe pitching one of my picks [56:26] for one of these conferences. [56:27] But the ones that I feel vindicated in are like Miami to win the ACC [56:31] and Texas Tech to win the Big 12. [56:33] But that's not fun because their odds are, I mean, it's minus 145 for Miami to win the ACC and it's plus 100 for Texas Tech to win the Big 12. [56:42] I'm going to stick with the Darryl Mensah take because it's one that I have been planting my flag in.”
“[58:25] Kendra, what is your plant-the-flag bet this week? [58:28] My choice is a little bit chalky, [58:30] but I'm going to go with Georgia to win the SEC. [58:32] They didn't have a ton of roster turnover, obviously, coaching continuity. [58:35] As far as I'm aware, there's no true freshman going to be starting on defense, [58:38] and I don't trust Arch Manning. [58:40] So I'm going to go with the chalky choice here in the SEC [58:43] and take Georgia to take it home.”
“[9:26] the one sec bet that i've made so far is i bet texas a&m under eight and a half wins”
“[37:45] The only guy that I bet, I bet this yesterday because I'll be honest, [37:50] when I saw the picture of Puka Nakua and just seeing some of his mouthy behavior, [37:58] I thought, I don't know if he's going to play week one. [38:01] So I'm playing Devontae Adams. [38:03] Right now, I can see his odds right now around plus 120 to score a touchdown in week one against the 49ers.”
“[41:07] touchdowns scored against both i need a grade on a bet that kendra handed out on one of our last [41:08] episodes and i loved it so much i immediately tailed it so this is already active uh she made [41:14] the case for drake may over three and a half rushing touchdowns on the year minus 105”
“[44:34] week one against that Niners defense. Ducky what about you? Let's go Trevor Lawrence over rushing [44:40] touchdowns for the season I think out there you can find six plus the plus money I look at the [44:47] second half of the season late in the season last year his rushing numbers designed runs all went up [44:55] they talked a lot about like increasing his sneak usage especially near the goal line i think you're [45:00] going to see that even more this season uh then i mentioned i think their defense takes a big step [45:06] back they're going to be in more shootouts uh so i think trevor lawrence continues his rushing [45:12] prowess that we saw late last year last year i think he got nine um [45:17] So I don't hate like eight plus that juicier numbers, [45:21] but let's go at six plus rushing touchdowns. [45:24] And it's a guy, he's also, you know, for these season long numbers,”
“[46:42] So Jill basically talked me out of betting Jonathan Taylor for an anytime [46:46] touchdown throughout the course of the season. [46:48] What I'm going to do then is just bet it at the beginning of the year and [46:52] just let it sort of sit like a stock. [46:54] I'm going to have Jonathan Taylor to lead the league in rushing touchdowns [46:58] at six to one odds. [47:00] Last I checked, he's still running behind one of the best offensive lines [47:04] in the game. [47:04] This is a team that's going to struggle to get in the end zone through the [47:07] air. [47:07] so they need him to punch it in he had 18 rushing touchdowns last year it's hard to ask for that sort [47:13] of repeat production but he's still in his prime so i'm willing to take the plunge and this is at [47:18] least my way it's like my elixir gil of not betting jonathan taylor week to week let's just [47:23] have him to dominate the league throughout the season yeah i mean if you want to bet the minus”
“[54:34] running it a lot late um and he's probably getting even more of a workload and you can bet his rushing [54:42] yards over if you'd like if you agree with me and you want to make some bread off of it over 674 and [54:50] a half at minus 110 over on draft kings”
“thanks so much later let's get to our plant the flag once again presented by draft kings but this time we're going to keep it inside of our top 10 what you got middleton plant the flag get it set up i'm trying to plant my flag here okay you're really planting your flag in that thing i think my favorite bet that i have placed this is now hopping over my cleveland browns bet Drake Maye over five and a half rushing touchdowns plus 180 is my favorite bet that i have logged all season long”
“That is going to be a buddy bet because I love that very much. Drake Maye over five rushing touchdowns, plus 180.”
“I like Drake Maye as well. 4,000 plus passing yards at plus 135.”
“please is how we view both of these guys all right let's get to our draft kings plant the flag segment of the day plant the flag get it set up i'm trying to plant my flag here okay you're really planted your flag in that thing our top 20 is just about wrapped but we will plant our flag on a season-long prop for one of the guys that we have already discussed on the episode today kendra get us started i have a jackson dart over five and a half rushing touchdowns played to give you guys even if kravitz is right and he doesn't survive the season because he doesn't know how to slide or to protect himself and his brain. I think that this could hit before that even happens to him because we know what we can do. We know what he's capable of. And I think at times because of the offense that they're going to run this year, he is going to be their best option within the 10 of the five because with all these old guys that are weirdly going to draw attention somehow that don't deserve to, I think that we could be looking at this. So I'm going to go with Jackson Dart over the five and a half rushing touchdowns.”
“I have Brock Purdy 20 to one to win MVP.”
“Kendra's on Micah Parsons, 10 to one.”
“A recap for you for our DraftKings Comeback Player of the Year. Kendra's on Micah Parsons, 10 to one. Stucky on Kyler Murray with the Vikings at 6 to one. And I'm on Malik neighbors, 16 to one with the New York Giants. you can bet on all of those over on draft Kings,”
“I am going to go with Jeremiah Love over eight touchdowns on the season plus 250 i think even though he's a rookie he's gonna see a ton of probably a lot of goal line easy easy number for me there”
“I'm going to go with Ashton Gentry 40 to one to win offensive player of the year.”
“Louisville, I bet Louisville against Ole Miss. It's six and a half. It's Braum. Braum with prep. Braum is a dog.”
“My first future we talked about the other day. Ravens under 11 and a half wins.”
“I'm going to go with the Steelers under eight and a half wins. the tomlin just cut me so hard right there he had the steelers and the jags in his notes and he drops the nobody's gonna be mad and then drops the steelers on a jags podcast are you joking what is this fuckery i will say the there there are only two win total bets that i have that i have placed and they are on the jags over nine and a half wins at plus 110 and the Steelers under 8.5 at minus 145. The one, if you said, gun to your head, you can only hold one of these bets through the season, for me, it's the Steelers.”
“that i have placed and they are on the jags over nine and a half wins at plus 110”
“I am all 10 toes on the ground, standing firm on the Rams under 11 and a half.”
“loves the under 11 and a half on the rams evan what about you what do you think yeah so my main approach here is doing exactly what our best bets are i think of these three teams the under will go two and one and that's part of my best bet thought process so kendra took the rams i'm gonna take seattle under 10 and a half uh we haven't talked about it on the show but they fall under a just a decent win total trend which are and i'll go through this quickly in 2024 detroit won 15 games”
“well that's where i am also 49ers under 10 and a half wins i think it's pretty easy to predict that the nfc west isn't going to produce three double digit winners in back-to-back seasons, the 49ers to me feel like the biggest regression candidate out there.”
“The biggest edge that I show right now is at DraftKings Falcons over six and a half minus 115.”
“I like the Bengals over 9.5 minus 140,”
“but I also love the Browns over 6.5 plus 105.”
“Anyway, Bengals, I am all in on them. I love their division odds at 2-1, over 9.5 wins.”
“I'm taking the Bengals to win the AFC at 12 to 1.”
“bet it now plus 140 to miss the playoffs but we looking after week two that could look mighty nice recap for you kendra on to the Chargers to miss the playoffs at plus 140”
“I'm on the Texans plus one and a half at home against the Buffalo Bills.”
“Yeah, you're right. I did it. Texans. I liked it as well. I was waiting for it's like minus one Oh five on the money line right now. You got to pay some juice like minus 122, minus 120 change on plus one and a half. I'm good with either. I probably would prefer just the money line at that price to save a little juice on that. So I'm with you, Texans. I agree with everything you said. I just feel like it's priced a little bit differently or wrongly. And I kind of like Houston in the spot.”
“that high for a reason Evan detailed it well in uh in his recap I like the Lions over 10 and a half”
“The Vikings to make the playoffs is awesome value right now at plus 170.”
“Under 10 and a half wins is a best bet type for me on the San Francisco 49ers.”
“there's a team with a really low win total that wins even fewer games in their win total uh i feel like that's always the fun one that everyone forgets they end up with two or three wins you end up catching your ticket no one realizes it i just feel like that has to be arizona I just don't know how with their division, with the fact that the teams that they face throughout the entire season, like some of the numbers are just absolutely incredible. It's incredible. Like their average win total they face is 9.3. It's the highest in history, like ever. Now, obviously, we've moved to a higher schedule within the last five years, but the number is still the highest within that distance. uh i mean again week one they're like an 11 point dog to the chargers which is going to be very similar to what the lines are going to kind of look like all season uh also on top of all those things fourth worst net rest so not only are is the schedule ridiculous but the schedule also did them no luck so there's like all these things is just ridiculous they also think about this one this one's crazy they face seven different opponents with a double digit win total across 10 separate matchups they face an average team of 47 to 1 in Super Bowl futures if you want a comparison the Bengals face a 93 to 1 on average so I mean it's just incredible how many teams and how many bad games Arizona has so I just feel like they're going to start bad and it's going to be a easier ticket than most or how bad they're supposed to be worst roster in the NFL perhaps them in Miami are duking it out for that. Both have win totals of four and a half.”
“uh i like the lions and the saints to go over 48 uh i i did it at minus 120”
“i'm gonna go with the giants plus two and a half week one”
“Kendra going Carson back 25 to one offensive rookie of the year.”
“that I have a Makai Lemon future for him to have over four touchdowns”
“Evan Abrams is on Omar Cooper four plus touchdowns at minus one 20.”
“I'm going Casey Concepcion 28 to one and Denzel Boston 30 to one.”
“I'm going Casey Concepcion 28 to one and Denzel Boston 30 to one.”
“Okay, I have this or that question for you. better bet right now Yankees to win the World Series at plus 850. I was just going to say this. Or the Mets to miss the playoffs at plus 140. I got to take the Yankees to win the World Series. And I think they have major warts and major deficiencies.”
“the braves are a team who i bet the win total under and i've also bet them to miss the playoffs during spring”
“I bet Houston at plus 155, plus 165 to miss the playoffs.”
“I bet San Diego in a similar range.”
“Right now, that bet that has the humongous edge is Seattle to win the AL West. So I think that's the best bet on the board.”
“It's the Yankees under 92 and a half and the Rays over 76 and a half. [35:56] The Yankees is gone. [35:57] It's down to 90 and a half. [35:59] The Rays over would remain a bet because I have them closer to 80 wins, 81 wins.”
“And then the third team you mentioned is Minnesota. They're an interesting case because they have an ownership battle going on. or they ended up, they were going to sell the team. They ended up selling shares of the team to a minority ownership group. It doesn't seem like they're going to invest in their roster at all. Even the minor league free agents and stuff that they tried to sign in the off season, none of them ended up making the roster and they cut all those guys. So they made no improvements to their roster. Buxton was able to stay healthy last year for the first time in forever. There's a lot of injury risk on this roster too. Pablo Lopez got hurt. Joe Ryan is probably going to get traded at some point. The point is the average public projection has the team at 77 and a half wins. Their win total is 72.5. So everybody says go over. The problem is, even though right now this is a 77, 78 win team, in July it's probably not going to be. This was the most active team at the trade deadline last year. They'll probably be one of, if not the most active teams in terms of selling off pieces this year. So you're looking at a team that right now may be a 78 win team. And right now in the betting market, especially if you're up any day, we'll end up getting there. But right now in the betting market, in terms of a game by game basis, they may be undervalued. But from a season long perspective, I think the public projections are pointing in the wrong direction just because they're not able to accurately capture how much this team will sell in season. So be careful. You know, we talked about averaging out the public projections, using that to help you form a consensus opinion. you do have to weigh that against news and things that are going on in the real world. And the news is all pointing downward for the twins. So do not trust the public projection there. I make them 70.6 and I actually bet the under for that team.”
“My favorite win total over, we didn't get to them. The Marlins over 72 and a half. You could take that up to 75.”
“Kendra? I think I'm going to switch gears here and I'm going to go with my boy. So Nelson. No, I'm going to go. Yes. I'm going to go with my boy, Paul Skeens, to make the postseason plus 225 on Giraffe Kings. Now that would be fun. We all need that. All right. Pirates into the postseason.”
“I'm going to take the Astros under 86 and a half wins. I think this number is too close to the ceiling for a team that is trending down”
“Here I am with my lovely 75 to one ticket on Atlanta to win the Superbowl next year.”
“or is it just something that you ignore Yeah we also had the two favorites went for Cy Young last year as well and Scoobble and Skeens because they stayed healthy So last year was a very chalky awards market because all the favorites stayed healthy for the entire year I think that that is extremely unlikely to happen again, and I think as a result, one of them probably loses their award category. Factor in poor performance, potentially, or just poor variance on top of that. I think Otani is much safer than Judge, because one, Otani DHs, so he doesn't have the probability of getting hurt in the field. He's only going to get hurt on the base pass. Two, he pitches, which adds to his wins above replacement total. And even if he gets hurt as a pitcher, he could still DH and accumulate all the wins above replacement. He does a DH. I think Judge is the likeliest one of those four to get hurt. Judge has a lingering toe issue, which he said he will have to monitor for the rest of his career. But it's something that cannot be fixed. So if it starts to flare up again, he's going to have to miss time. And missing three weeks, four weeks could be enough to open the door for somebody else like a Bobby Wood Jr. or Gunnar Henderson or Julio Rodriguez to potentially pass him in war and end up stealing the award. War, wins above replacement, is the most important correlative stat in terms of predicting the winner for these categories. And you accumulate that one by being good, but two, by playing a full season. So it is, by and large, going to come down to injury for these guys. Scooble is the only one of the four that I bet, only one of the four favorites that I bet.”
“Cease is a guy I bet for Cy Young, for AL Cy Young, which I did also bet Tarek Skool in”
“The wins market to me is very interesting just because there's so much variance, right? And so is there, obviously you're. You can only cap the winner so high. The winner's not going to get more than like 20, right? So the separation is narrow. Skubo's obviously the leader, but I'm assuming you are looking a bit more down the board. Anyone worth mentioning? Yeah, I like his teammate. I like Frambois Valdez. I bet him at about 30 to one.”
“16 plus wins for Fromber is the only wins milestone bet I placed, but it's actually a bigger edge than his outright prop.”
“Winsleader. Kirby, the most optimal bet for me was Winsleader. I don't think I have any other bets on Kirby. If I do, it might be like 200 plus strikeouts. But by and large, I allocated Kirby Winsleader, Wu strikeouts, and Gilbert strikeouts.”
“I bet Gilbert K leader props. I bet Gilbert K ladder props. I bet Brian Wu K leader props I bet Brian Wu K ladder props So I talking like 200 210 plus 220 plus I think there much bigger edges on those props for Gilbert than there is in his wins leader market. But those outcomes are essentially correlated. In order to get to the 200 plus strikeout level, he's going to need to start enough games to be in consideration for the wins leader market.”
“I bet Brian Wu K leader props I bet Brian Wu K ladder props So I talking like 200 210 plus 220 plus I think there much bigger edges on those props for Gilbert than there is in his wins leader market. But those outcomes are essentially correlated. In order to get to the 200 plus strikeout level, he's going to need to start enough games to be in consideration for the wins leader market. So I'm just trying to optimize my betting card, my futures card in terms of the best”
“And if he's going to get there, he's going to strike out 200 plus hitters. This was one of my biggest edges in terms of milestone props. Jacob Marcy's stolen base ladder was my other biggest edge in terms of milestone props. When I was sitting here at home, I was unable to get the money down that I wanted on those props. and as a result ended up traveling out of state and driving three hours each way right before that two-foot blizzard that we got here in New York and round tripping it all within 24 hours so I could get down on most of these props, but especially the Trey Yesavage props. So yeah, I really like Yosavage this year. He is the AL favorite, I believe, for Rookie of the Year alongside his teammate Kazuma Akimoto, who came over from Japan. But essentially, Yosavage's Rookie of the Year odds kind of align, or not even align with. They fall short of his odds to get 200 plus Ks. So why would I bet Yosavage at 6-1 for Rookie of the Year, when in order to win that award, he probably needs to get 200 plus Ks, and I can get 9-1 on his 200 plus K props.”
“Are you thinking about it the same way for RBIs? Do you have anyone you're targeting there? Schwarber, we cashed last year. I'm right on Schwarber again this year at 35 to 1. So the whole the whole thesis with Schrober last year was he used to hit lead off he's moving down to second flipping lineup spots with Trey Turner should add 10-15 RBI to his total I projected him at 20-1 last year they gave me 50-1 I projected him at 21 last year they still gave me 35-1 so yeah I'm backing on Schrober this year 100%”
“And if not, is there anyone you like either the lead in stolen bases or any stolen base props? Yeah, there's two guys I really like from a stolen base perspective from the outright. Three guys I like if you include the milestones. Simpson is absolutely on that list. Simpson is basically Billy Hamilton, except he strikes out half as often as Billy Hamilton. Billy Hamilton had a career 20% strikeout rate. Simpson was at 10% last year. So even though he doesn't walk or get on base, he puts the ball in play always. And the speed is going to get him on base because he's so ridiculously fast. As I said, the fastest home to first time in the stack cast era by like a tenth of a second, which means he's probably the fastest ever. I doubt anybody before the stack cast era was running as fast as this dude. Now, I do project value on his outright prop. I make him about plus 450. I bet him at five to one.”
“I bet Julio Rodriguez for AL MVP.”
“I'm going to go with the Falcons. I already placed the bet on it. 75 to one.”
“So this is where you were really laughing at me. Kendra's already giving me shit for this. The coffee was really hitting yesterday. I bet the Falcons to win next year's Super Bowl. That's how in the weeds we got. 75 to 1.”
“I do want to start with Kentucky because the projections for them, probably anywhere from five to six wins, depending on where you're looking right now. At the Action Network, Colin Wilson has him projected for 5.45 wins and only two conference wins. Where are you coming in on that, Drew Franklin? I mean, take my money. I'm all in on the over.”
“[5:19] NFL preseason tonight. [5:21] We've got a decent slate of games. [5:24] I'm I've two bets that have been logged in the app. [5:27] I'm going to target the totals more than anything else. [5:30] Not the biggest totals better during the season, [5:33] but I think there are enough strong trends or I can get behind this And unless I get obliterated early on we probably just ride this into the end when it comes to preseason betting I have an over and an under both logs in the app [5:46] Do you want me to give you my reasoning as to why I've found a really strong [5:50] trend surrounding a certain number? [5:54] But before I get to that, have you placed anything as far as preseason [5:58] betting or will you just be sitting back trying to adjust your fantasy rankings? [6:02] It is my lunch hour to-do list. [6:06] I'm going to shove a waffle in my mouth and look at all of the numbers for this evening. [6:10] I thought I had to work tonight. [6:12] So I was like, gosh, shit, I'm not going to be able to, like, sweat anything. [6:14] This is going to suck. [6:15] And then I realized that I had the wrong date in my calendar, and the event that I have to go to is tomorrow. [6:20] So now I'm like, sweet, I get to get fat on my couch tonight. [6:22] That rules. [6:23] Might as well sweat something. [6:25] Absolutely. [6:25] And we start there. [6:27] I don't think that you should just place bets simply for the sweat. [6:31] do a little research and then sweat it out uh and i know that kendra would rubber stamp that [6:36] under 37 and a half on lions bangles over 36 and a half on chargers texans”
CIN 16, DET 14 — Combined 30; under 37.5 covers.
“[5:19] NFL preseason tonight. [5:21] We've got a decent slate of games. [5:24] I'm I've two bets that have been logged in the app. [5:27] I'm going to target the totals more than anything else. [5:30] Not the biggest totals better during the season, [5:33] but I think there are enough strong trends or I can get behind this And unless I get obliterated early on we probably just ride this into the end when it comes to preseason betting I have an over and an under both logs in the app [5:46] Do you want me to give you my reasoning as to why I've found a really strong [5:50] trend surrounding a certain number? [5:54] But before I get to that, have you placed anything as far as preseason [5:58] betting or will you just be sitting back trying to adjust your fantasy rankings? [6:02] It is my lunch hour to-do list. [6:06] I'm going to shove a waffle in my mouth and look at all of the numbers for this evening. [6:10] I thought I had to work tonight. [6:12] So I was like, gosh, shit, I'm not going to be able to, like, sweat anything. [6:14] This is going to suck. [6:15] And then I realized that I had the wrong date in my calendar, and the event that I have to go to is tomorrow. [6:20] So now I'm like, sweet, I get to get fat on my couch tonight. [6:22] That rules. [6:23] Might as well sweat something. [6:25] Absolutely. [6:25] And we start there. [6:27] I don't think that you should just place bets simply for the sweat. [6:31] do a little research and then sweat it out uh and i know that kendra would rubber stamp that [6:36] under 37 and a half on lions bangles over 36 and a half on chargers texans since 2010 the number 37 [6:46] has been the key benchmark in terms of totals totals that have been less than 37 have gone [6:54] over at a rate of 57% and totals that are south of 37 or north of 37 have gone under at a rate [7:03] of 56%. So if you just simply take the over on games that have a total less than 36 and a half [7:11] and the under on totals of more than 37 and a half, then you will be profitable. [7:18] Did you say you have the under in the Chargers game? [7:21] I have the over in the Chargers game.”
HOU 7, LAC 27 — Combined 34; over 36.5 busts.
“[7:57] I might tell you on this. [7:58] In terms of getting that offense up to speed. [8:01] So might be a pod bet. [8:03] We'll sweat a little something. [8:05] Yeah, pod bet over 36 and a half on who the hell are they playing again? [8:10] Chargers Texans for tonight.”
HOU 7, LAC 27 — Combined 34; over 36.5 busts.
“[5:03] Personally, I would never. [5:04] so my cell is going to be on a much more straightforward bet I love betting my my sides [5:12] I like the Cardinals plus one and a half tonight in six preseason games since Dave Canales took [5:19] charge in 2024 the Panthers are oh and six against the spread in the preseason and you look at what [5:27] they're facing they've got injuries already Nick Scorton's out for the year Xavier Leggett went down [5:32] with an injury in practice. [5:33] Not that these guys were going to play in the Hall of Fame game. [5:36] Anyway, both tackles on the offensive line are missing in action. [5:39] Canales just wants to keep these guys healthy. [5:41] And Mike LaFleur is a new head coach. [5:44] I have a feeling he's going to take this game more seriously than he should. [5:48] So I'm planting the flag, Kendra. [5:51] First bet of the year on his side.”
ARI 30, CAR 33 — Arizona Cardinals margin -3 vs line +1.5; busts.
“I'm gonna go Nate Amen top 10 minus 105”
Nate Ament was selected 13th overall (Miami Heat, later traded to Milwaukee) in the 2026 NBA Draft, outside the top 10 (ESPN draft results). (Ament drafted No. 13)
“variance of anybody in the draft so who the hell knows i'm gonna go with Darius Acuff Jr. selected over slot six and a half you can get that at plus 155 over on dk seems like it's already written in the”
Darius Acuff Jr. was selected 7th overall by the Sacramento Kings in the 2026 NBA Draft, later than pick 6.5 (ESPN draft results). (Acuff drafted No. 7)
“Stucky, off to you. I'm going to go with – I was thinking about Amara position, but i'm gonna go with boozer uh i think he's minus 140 to go third overall um i think that's”
Cam Boozer was drafted exactly 3rd overall by the Memphis Grizzlies in the 2026 NBA Draft (ESPN draft results). (Boozer drafted No. 3)
“And I am on Russell Henley, 41 to 1 to win outright.”
Wyndham Clark won the 2026 U.S. Open at -4 (276); Russell Henley finished T65 at +14, so the outright-winner bet loses (ESPN). (Winner: Wyndham Clark -4 (276); Henley T65 +14)
“Kendra is on Cam Young, top 10 hometown guy, plus 250.”
Cam Young finished T43 at +8 at the 2026 U.S. Open, well outside the top 10 (ESPN). (Young T43 (+8))
“Stucky is on Sam Burns, top 20 finish at plus 135.”
Sam Burns finished runner-up (solo 2nd) at -3 (277) at the 2026 U.S. Open, comfortably inside the top 20 (ESPN). (Burns solo 2nd (-3, 277))
“Kyle Murray, Tommy Fleetwood, top 10, plus 196 over on DraftKings.”
Tommy Fleetwood finished T11 at +2 at the 2026 U.S. Open, just outside the top 10 (ESPN). (Fleetwood T11 (+2))
“So I definitely love Texas in the first, which I hate. I've got a Georgia future, but Texas in the first game, Dylan Volantis, I'd play it up to minus 150.”
7-1 — No. 3 Georgia beat No. 6 Texas 7-1 in their College World Series opener on June 13, 2026, so the Texas moneyline bet loses.
“Yeah, I love Kendra's bet, but I'm going to move to Ole Miss, North Carolina. Let's go over eight and a half. I think it's gone up from minus 110 to minus 120.”
6-2 — North Carolina beat Ole Miss 6-2 in the CWS opener on June 12, 2026 — 8 combined runs is under the 8.5 total, so the Over 8.5 bet loses (ESPN).
“wind when you play totals in Omaha. And I was going to go with Texas in the first game against Georgia. If Colin wasn't on the segment, I was going to steal the over as well. So you guys took both the ones I was going to go with. So let's just roll with Colin's pick to win it all. Texas future? Three to one. Trustin, Volantis, Hookham. So that's our plant the flag college world series segment presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours. We have Texas in game one, Texas to win it all, and Ole Miss, North Carolina, over eight and a half runs in game one.”
Oklahoma won the 2026 College World Series championship, defeating North Carolina in the finals for its third national title; Texas did not win it all, so the Texas-to-win-CWS future loses. (Champion: Oklahoma (3rd title), def. North Carolina in the championship series)
“yeah i'm gonna go texas minus 135 before the price gets better or gets worse”
7-1 — No. 3 Georgia beat No. 6 Texas 7-1 in their College World Series opener on June 13, 2026, so the Texas moneyline bet loses.
“so what is it are we going under US to win under 3.5 Desch shot okay what does that pay can you pull that up yeah I'm looking at it under three and a half 270 US Moneyline Sergino Dest one plus shot under three and a half love it that'll be our DraftKings parlay for Friday night”
4-1 — USA beat Paraguay 4-1 on June 12, 2026 (SoFi Stadium) — the USA moneyline leg won, but 5 combined goals pushed the Under 3.5 total leg to a loss, busting the parlay (ESPN).
“let's go back to the u.s one of the three host nations my best bet it's for the u.s to have a good tournament but not an extraordinary one so a stage of elimination round of 16 which is around plus 220”
USA beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 in the Round of 32 (July 1) then lost to Belgium 4-1 in the Round of 16 (July 6, 2026) — USA's stage of elimination was the Round of 16, as bet (ESPN).
“but I don't think they quite look the Finnish article in terms of balance. I would love for Turkey to go far off court to go to an italian manager in vincenzo montella but i think it's gonna be ecuador ecuador i visited ecuador a couple years ago love the people there met a couple that are diehard fans so i love that that's what uh i'm rolling with the tries plus 150 to make the round of 16 round of 16 for ecuador you can actually get that at plus 250 over on draft kings a little price discovery for you i'm gonna go with 50 i wasn't i was like ecuador round of 16 or no i'm sorry i'm on stage of elimination my bad yeah you're right yeah i was trying to get you a better number but no it does not exist”
Ecuador was eliminated by Mexico 2-0 in the Round of 32 on June 30, 2026 at Estadio Banorte, Mexico City — Ecuador never reached the Round of 16, so the bet on elimination in the Round of 16 loses (ESPN).
“i'm gonna go to colombia to win group k plus 240”
Colombia won Group K with 7 points (2W-1D-0L), finishing ahead of Portugal (5), DR Congo (4), and Uzbekistan (0). (Group K: Colombia 7 pts, Portugal 5, DR Congo 4, Uzbekistan 0)
“Yeah. In the series. There's a couple I like here. Mikal Bridges plus one 40 head to head versus Fox at draft Kings. I think is a really great bet. Fox does most of his damage in 45 sets in Spain, pick and rolls for the San Antonio Spurs where they wind up with him getting downhill on a big that doesn really work as well with how the Knicks defend those actions and meanwhile Mikal Bridges like I talked about he he had a lot of catch and shoot opportunities he had a lot of open looks He able to create off the bounce He going to get going in second units So I think he's going to have more points in the series. So Bridges plus 140 I think is a good look.”
Across the 2026 NBA Finals (Knicks won 4-1), De'Aaron Fox outscored Mikal Bridges 64-52 (Fox: 7/20/12/18/7; Bridges: 9/20/2/7/14 per game), so Bridges did not out-score Fox head-to-head (ESPN box scores). (Bridges 52 pts (9,20,2,7,14); Fox 64 pts (7,20,12,18,7) across Games 1-5)
“So I think he's going to have more points in the series. So Bridges plus 140 I think is a good look. Wemby one-plus made threes at DraftKings, minus 130. Another really good look. Two plus threes, I'm sorry, is a really good look here. One-three per game is minus 130 as well.”
NY 105, SA 95 — Victor Wembanyama went 2-for-9 from three in NBA Finals Game 1 (Knicks 105, Spurs 95) on June 3, 2026, satisfying the 2+ made-threes prop (ESPN box score). (Victor Wembanyama: 2-9 3PT)
“threes leader i've got champagney plus 270 bridges 50 to one and og five to one those are all i think really good value bets there”
OG Anunoby led the 2026 NBA Finals in made threes with 16 (3,2,3,7,1 across Games 1-5), one more than Julian Champagnie's 15 (5,2,3,1,4), so Champagnie did not lead the series (ESPN box scores). (Anunoby 16 3PM (series leader); Champagnie 15 3PM)
“threes leader i've got champagney plus 270 bridges 50 to one and og five to one those are all i think really good value bets there”
OG Anunoby led the 2026 NBA Finals in made threes with 16; Mikal Bridges finished with 8 (0,4,0,1,3 across Games 1-5), well short of the series lead (ESPN box scores). (Bridges 8 3PM (series); Anunoby led with 16)
“open looks in the series so betting women yama threes per each game and for the series i think is a really good look uh and then threes leader i've got champagney plus 270 bridges 50 to one and og five to one those are all i think really good value bets there as well as well as jalen brunson finals mvp uh slew of them stucky what about you i'm gonna go with jalen brunson to lead”
OG Anunoby led the 2026 NBA Finals in made threes with 16 across Games 1-5 (3,2,3,7,1), one ahead of Julian Champagnie's 15 (ESPN box scores). (Anunoby 16 3PM (series leader))
“as well as jalen brunson finals mvp uh slew of them”
Jalen Brunson was named 2026 NBA Finals MVP after averaging a series-high scoring effort, including 45 points in the closeout Game 5 win over the Spurs on June 13, 2026 (ESPN recap).
“i'm gonna go with jalen brunson to lead this series in three pointers four to one mentioned the matchup i think he's gonna get a ton up uh so”
OG Anunoby led the 2026 NBA Finals in made threes with 16; Jalen Brunson finished with 14 (2,2,3,3,4 across Games 1-5), behind Anunoby and Champagnie, not the series leader (ESPN box scores). (Brunson 14 3PM (series); Anunoby led with 16)
“I'll take the Spurs to win the series in six at five to one. Over at DraftKings, those are NBA Finals' best.”
The Knicks won the 2026 NBA Finals in 5 games (4-1) over the Spurs, not 6, so the Spurs-in-6 futures bet lost (ESPN recap).
“So I believe Oklahoma City is going to win the game. Forget the three and a half points. Let's go Moneyline.”
SA 118, OKC 91 — Spurs beat Thunder 118-91 in West Finals Game 6 on May 28, 2026; Oklahoma City did not win, so the moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“So over seven and a half points for Isaiah Hartenstein will be my bet added to the card plus six 50 over on draft Kings.”
SA 118, OKC 91 — Isaiah Hartenstein scored 10 points in West Finals Game 6 on May 28, 2026, covering the over 7.5 points (ESPN box score). (Isaiah Hartenstein: 10 points)
“They often say you win this one and you're going to win the series. I tend to agree. As far as these, these two teams go, I'm not on a side though. I'm going to take the total under two 16 and a half Spurs made some big time adjustments in game four.”
OKC 127, SA 114 — Thunder beat Spurs 127-114 in West Finals Game 5 on May 26, 2026; the combined 241 points went over 216.5 (ESPN box score).
“I kind of like the Spurs, but if I'm going to stay away from the side altogether, I think the prop that is kind of agnostic of doesn't matter what the result will be, especially given the injuries. I like Caruso in this series given looking at our player prop edges We have an edge to the over on his points and his rebounds So I will actually look to his PRA over 13 and a half I think no matter what happens He shows up as the energy guy kind of does a bunch of things His over two and a half rebounds also showing a bigger edge if you wanted to go that direction Yeah role player paradise there in Oklahoma”
OKC 127, SA 114 — Alex Caruso had 22 points, 2 rebounds, 6 assists (30 PRA) in West Finals Game 5 on May 26, 2026, covering the over 13.5 PRA (ESPN box score). (Alex Caruso: 22 pts, 2 reb, 6 ast (30 PRA))
“let's go with SGA over one and a half threes”
OKC 127, SA 114 — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander made 2 threes in West Finals Game 5 on May 26, 2026, covering the over 1.5 threes (ESPN box score). (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 2 made threes)
“It's early enough in the week. Scotty, top five minus 110.”
Scottie Scheffler finished T14 at -2 (278) at the 2026 PGA Championship at Aronimink, outside the top 5; Aaron Rai won at -9 (271) (ESPN leaderboard).
“So if I had, then I see what we're doing here. If I had to actually plant my flag on one of those that I had just mentioned, plant my flag, Xander top 10. Okay. And your top 10 plus 162 for Xander, who is always, always hanging around at the end of these primetime events.”
Xander Schauffele finished T7 at -4 (276) at the 2026 PGA Championship at Aronimink, inside the top 10 (ESPN leaderboard).
“Also, my plant, the flag is JJ Spaun top 10, finish five to one. So plus 500 on that.”
J.J. Spaun missed the cut (146) at the 2026 PGA Championship at Aronimink, so he did not finish top 10 (ESPN leaderboard).
“should be listening to anyway so we'll start with you okay i am gonna go ahead i'll plant my flag on let's go with the ducks to win game two is that enough of a take i think that's a good bet i thought the ducks played a surprisingly great game in game one kind of hindered on it was really closely contested and usually every playoff game there's one or two things you can point to that decided it but jackson lacombe passing up a completely wide open net and a controversial icing call i was surprised at how much time the ducks were able to spend in vegas's zone i thought vegas looked pretty passive like they're kind of scared of all the speed and skill over on the other side so i like the ducks i'm still a little unsold on carter hart here and you know maybe i'd Maybe in round one they did actually deserve quite a bit of credit for what they did to the Oilers. So I think we might see kind of a similar narrative in that series. I don't know if they'll be able to pull off the win, but Utah showed some really good signs in round one versus Vegas in game one. Then they were able to get game two on the road. I kind of think plus 135 is a good number to buy into a similar narrative after what we saw from the Ducks in game one. So, yeah, let's go with that. All right, we're on the board with the Ducks in game two, plus 136 against the Vegas Golden Knights.”
3-1 — Anaheim Ducks beat the Vegas Golden Knights 3-1 in Round 2 Game 2 on May 6, 2026, so the Ducks moneyline cashed.
“Evan, let's kick it over to you. Plant the flag. Two options I was looking through were the Ducks to win it all. I see it 35 to one. So I was going to take a larger position than Nick. I like the Ducks as well. So game two is fine. But if you want to go crazy, 35 to one at the cup. And then the other thing I was looking at, I'll probably stick with the Ducks, but Carolina not to win the East is plus 140. I see in some places just like an option on who they're going to play next since I don't want to choose between Montreal and Buffalo. I just kind of want to ride whoever comes out of that series. But those are the two things I was looking at. All right. So we're going to go officially for the content purposes of it. Ducks, 35 to one to win it all. Good with that? Good with that.”
The Carolina Hurricanes won the 2026 Stanley Cup, beating the Vegas Golden Knights 4 games to 2 in the Final; the Ducks lost in Round 2 to Vegas and did not win the Cup.
“And I have been chasing an Andrei Svechnikov goal. [51:30] So I'm going to continue to chase it plus 225 for Thursday.”
Andrei Svechnikov scored a power-play goal in the 3rd period as Carolina beat Philadelphia 4-1 on May 7, 2026 (Round 2 Game 3), finishing with 1 goal and 2 assists. (1 G, 2 A)
“I'm going to go with the Minnesota Wild. I'm taking my shot. I'm planting the flag. Now they need to get past the avalanche first, which is the toughest test. But if they can climb that proverbial mountain, I think the path is clear. 16 to one is dreamy. We'll get them to win tonight. Cross my fingers on that light sprinkle since I didn't get the full approval from Nick. But if they win tonight, they steal home ice. Feel good about it. I'll put my faith in Quinn Hughes and company. Give me the Minnesota wild at 16 to one.”
The Carolina Hurricanes won the 2026 Stanley Cup, beating the Vegas Golden Knights 4 games to 2 in the Final; the Minnesota Wild did not win it.
“I'm thinking outright winners here, guys. Let's just go for the jugular. Mike, we'll start with you. You're our guest. Thank you. I am going to number nine, the Puma. He's another horse that is coming out of the Florida Derby. He finished second in that race just by a nose. And interestingly enough, his trainer, Gustavo Delgado, won this race a couple of years back with the horse Mage. Mage was also a horse that came out of the Florida Derby who didn't win the Kentucky Derby. So a very similar pattern. And the Puma 10 to 1 on the morning line, when I last looked, was definitely taking some of the early money for sure. And so it was already bet down below that 10 to 1.”
The Puma was scratched from the 2026 Kentucky Derby the morning of the race due to leg swelling from a skin infection; win bets on a scratched horse are refunded.
“a recap on our draft Kings plant the flag picks for the Kentucky Derby. Mike likes the Puma at 10 to one. He's the horse racing expert, by the way, you should probably listen to him. Kendra has a right to party at 30 to one.”
Right to Party was scratched from the 2026 Kentucky Derby before the race after regulatory veterinarians found signs he could be at risk of injury; win bets on a scratched horse are refunded.
“a recap on our draft Kings plant the flag picks for the Kentucky Derby. Mike likes the Puma at 10 to one. He's the horse racing expert, by the way, you should probably listen to him. Kendra has a right to party at 30 to one. I'm on commandment six to one and Stucky has chief while it'll be the sharp horse at eight to one.”
Golden Tempo won the 152nd Kentucky Derby; Chief Wallabee finished 4th, so the outright-win bet lost.
“I'm on commandment six to one”
Golden Tempo won the 152nd Kentucky Derby; Commandment finished 7th, so the outright-win bet lost.
“that's how bad orlando is i was telling the guys before you got on that i'm far more invested in the stanley cup playoffs right now so i am rather casual about the nba postseason however the one bet i had was this nicks hawk series to go over five and a half i feel like outside of the magic this is the series that people who are casual might be surprised by are you surprised by this series and what are your expectations for it the rest of the way”
4-2 (6 games) — Knicks beat the Hawks 4 games to 2 in the 2026 NBA playoffs first round, needing 6 games, so the series Over 5.5 games cashed.
“everyone is kind of like failing and facing massive changes because it's just like you are so far away it feels like i like toronto a lot in this matchup uh i bet them plus two and a half on the series spread”
4-3 — Cavaliers beat the Raptors 4 games to 3 in the 2026 NBA playoffs first round; Toronto's 1-game series margin covered the +2.5 series spread.
“it feels like i like toronto a lot in this matchup uh i bet them plus two and a half on the series spread i bet them plus one and a half i think they can get one more game uh before the series started i just like the matchup”
4-3 — Cavaliers beat the Raptors 4 games to 3 in the 2026 NBA playoffs first round; Toronto's 1-game series margin covered the +1.5 series spread.
“i'm gonna go Jaylen Brown eastern conference mvp plus 225 because i wish that god hated boston more than he does”
Jalen Brunson of the Knicks won the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP (Larry Bird Trophy), not Jaylen Brown.
“Stucky, where do you land? I'm going to stick with the one I mentioned earlier Cavs to make the Eastern Conference Finals They're a favorite now I think they're going to beat I think there's a good chance this goes 7 But it's going to be one of those series where The home team Wins every game I think the Magic are going to beat the Pistons And I think the Cavs have too much firepower for the Magic And if it's the Pistons I don't trust Detroit's coach One bit Or this offense I don't think they'll have enough against the Cavs So, yeah, give me Cleveland to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Advance to the Eastern Conference Finals is plus 115. To win the Eastern Conference Finals is plus 320. Isn't that the case? You had said that earlier. I don't see it here. That's what it was before the playoffs, but now the Magic are up 3-1. I think it's like minus 130 now.”
The Cleveland Cavaliers advanced to the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals, where they were swept 4-0 by the Knicks.
“I'm going to stick with this. Jalen Brunson, plus 700, Eastern Conference Finals MVP.”
Jalen Brunson of the Knicks won the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP (Larry Bird Trophy).
“I'm going to go with the... I'm going to stay within round one. I'm going to go with the Rockets plus 550 now over on DraftKings to make it out of round one against the Lakers. They're down 3-1 in this series. I am dug in. I think they win game five in LA. I think they smash in game six on their home floor and then we'll sit pretty with a plus five 50 in game seven.”
4-2 — The Lakers beat the Rockets 4 games to 2 in the 2026 NBA playoffs first round; Houston did not advance out of round one.
“i would probably go hood so i'll go colton hood uh 35 at 10 to 1”
Pick 35 in the 2026 NFL Draft (Buffalo Bills) was DE T.J. Parker; CB Colton Hood was selected No. 37 by the Giants, so the pick 35 selection did not hit.
“is an interesting thought can i piggyback off that i'm gonna go with students at 35 uh assuming the Bills keep that. If I was the Bills I would have taken him at what were they They traded back to 28 I was like take Stutes Yeah That what they are The last couple of drafts they are building a wall on that defense up front But they need something on the back end. And I said the first name that I mentioned on our podcast, when we talked about the five guys that we think are undervalued or are going to be just slam dunk pros, Stooks was number one for me. He's so versatile. Even Worry vibes. He's played outside. He can play inside. He can play safety. He can play slot. He can play big nickel. He can defend the run. You can do so many things with him. Be a perfect fit for Buffalo. If they draft Stooks, I'm all in on Buffalo this year. I think 20-1 at draft games you can get.”
Pick 35 in the 2026 NFL Draft (Buffalo Bills) was DE T.J. Parker; S Treydan Stukes was selected No. 38 by the Raiders, so the pick 35 selection did not hit.
“but yeah i think it's worth a long shot couple all right we have a couple of bets on the bills at 35 kendra where are you at um i gave it a future on my other show last week of the 49ers to take a receiver with their first pick so i am gonna rock with that i'm gonna say boston to the 49ers at that slot just to piggyback off of that future”
The 49ers' first pick (No. 33) in the 2026 NFL Draft was WR De'Zhaun Stribling; WR Denzel Boston went No. 39 to the Browns, so the pick did not hit.
“I'm going to go with the most boring option available. Chase Pesantis, offensive guard, Texas A&M, plus 600 goes to the 49ers. First pick off the board tonight.”
The 49ers' first pick (No. 33) in the 2026 NFL Draft was WR De'Zhaun Stribling; G Chase Bisontis was selected No. 34 by the Arizona Cardinals, so the pick 33 selection did not hit.
“though i wouldn't say the cardinals to take Carson Beck with their next pick just them to take him overall because I think that he fits kind of their offense better than the other options still available. So if that's something that you like, I would do that as well.”
The Arizona Cardinals selected QB Carson Beck (Miami) with pick No. 65 in the 2026 NFL Draft.
“on that thing matt you are our guest you are dialed in what's your favorite bet of them all as we head into the nfl draft i need to get the updated number but if you can still get i mean up until very recently jeremiah love to be a top five pick was like minus 135 i have to imagine that that been crushed minus 500 right now okay if you could get him even in the top four and pay a little bit of a better price tag on that I just think that kind of my big take right now is that the germ I love is not lasting past pick four I think he is going to be one of the first four players drafted. I think that honestly, at this point, I think he's going to end up going third. So that's the guy that I am locked in on. I think he ends up finishing in the top four.”
Jeremiyah Love (RB, Notre Dame) was drafted No. 3 overall by the Arizona Cardinals, inside the top 4.
“the way I've been betting this market is I'm just betting the Cardinals to be the team to draft Ty Simpson”
The Arizona Cardinals used their first-round pick on RB Jeremiyah Love at No. 3; Ty Simpson was drafted No. 13 by the Los Angeles Rams.
“And I have some positions on Tyson being the first receiver taken in this draft.”
Carnell Tate (WR, Ohio State) was the first wide receiver drafted at No. 4; Jordyn Tyson went No. 8 to the Saints.
“I like Spencer Fano to be the top offensive lineman, the first offensive lineman drafted.”
Spencer Fano (OT, Utah) was the first offensive lineman drafted, No. 9 overall by the Cleveland Browns.
“Total trades, four and a half. Average last 20 years, five and a half trades. Yeah. I'm going to go over.”
Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft featured 16 separate trades affecting first-round picks, well over the 4.5 line. (16 trades affecting Round 1 picks)
“um i'll be drinking too so way over um but how about what's what's miami so based on who this miami staff is you know they have needs all over but i think it would make the most sense for them to go just on who who they are who that new regime is i think they're And with how deep the tackle class is, I think Miami's going to go O-line. Are they a dog to pick an offensive lineman? I think on some of the prediction markets I saw, I don't know how much liquidity is in those. I don't think anyone has any clue what they're going to do. Yeah, so that would be my take. Is there a market there for Miami to take an O-line?”
The Miami Dolphins selected OT Kadyn Proctor (Alabama) at No. 12 in Round 1.
“And with how deep the tackle class is, I think Miami's going to go O-line. Are they a dog to pick an offensive lineman? I think on some of the prediction markets I saw, I don't know how much liquidity is in those. I don't think anyone has any clue what they're going to do. Yeah, so that would be my take. Is there a market there for Miami to take an O-line? Anybody? Can anyone? For sure, probably. Let me look. It's going to take some scrolling. Oh, Evan said agree, took plus 125 to a lineman yesterday. Evan, is that still available? Checking now. I did it at a competitor. I didn see it on DraftKings since I in New York and I can see those odds either Can anyone with DraftKings draft access Hold on I scrolling I scrolling I scrolling DraftKings right now in the AFC East is only offering the Buffalo Bills at the moment That's how unknown all this is. Buffalo Bills positions? Yeah. Yeah, D-line, offensive line, wide receiver, linebacker. At a competitor, offensive line for Miami is now 161. Wow, great price you got there. Do you mean plus minus or plus? Right now it's minus. I got plus 125. Oh, nice. You got ahead of that. That's tough at minus 125. Plus 125. I wish I had your ticket.”
The Miami Dolphins selected OT Kadyn Proctor (Alabama) at No. 12 in Round 1.
“lineman and uh what are the bills positions what is their favorite to pick defensive line even money they're probably gonna go i think kind of like a receiver for i could see them going receiver yeah what's receiver price plus 475 i like that i like a shot of the bills ticket receiver the key on coleman coming to bite them in the ass his corpse you gotta get something to help out do whatever they do they should just have josh allen go up and not only announce the pick but actually select the pick no he screwed the sabers the other night and actually fun fact if a quarterback has been in the building for a stanley cup playoff game their team has lost JJ McCarthy was in the building for the wild last night. They lost in double overtime. Josh Allen was in the building the other night for the Sabres. They lost bet on it Drake may better not show up for the Bruins tonight bitch If I the Bills I would want like probably I mean last year they went they drafted Landon Jackson, TJ. So they went like heavy D-line SEC. So they have some Deion Walker. Like they just went young D-line. um no they could they could go back to that but like linebacker safety if i'm a bills fan i want to address that you know i don't necessarily think they'd have to do that in the first round but i i like that look at wide receiver plus 450 that's what i'll go with”
The Buffalo Bills traded out of Round 1 entirely and made no first-round selection; their first pick was EDGE T.J. Parker at No. 35 in Round 2.
“i i like that look at wide receiver plus 450 that's what i'll go with i'm gonna go over on wide receivers five and a half selected you twisted my arm matt appreciate the the lean there i think it's sort of a mid off with these wide receivers in round one but they seem to be catching some steam and we know it's a copycat league a lot of jsn looking guys in this year's class in that first round i think teams are going to chase that level of production”
Only 5 wide receivers were drafted in Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft (Carnell Tate, Jordyn Tyson, Makai Lemon, KC Concepcion, Omar Cooper Jr.), under the 5.5 line. (5 WRs drafted in Round 1)
“by the way i just added caleb downs going eighth to the saints at 12 to one i saw you go wild on the app”
Caleb Downs (S, Ohio State) was drafted No. 11 overall by the Dallas Cowboys; the New Orleans Saints picked WR Jordyn Tyson at No. 8.
“Ty Simpson, where do you end up landing on his projection? The over under for quarterback selected in round one sitting at one and a half. And we've seen the juice kind of move all over the place from minus one 60 to minus one 35. And I am very tempted to hammer the over because it's the quarterback position. Somebody somebody. Have you already bet it, Kendra? Oh, yeah. Well, OK, so it wasn't available in the action app. So for those of you out here, I tracked Ty Simpson minus 160 to go in the first 32 picks. That was my way of capping that while tracking it in the app just for the people out there.”
Ty Simpson (QB, Alabama) was drafted No. 13 overall by the Los Angeles Rams, inside the top 32.
“about to see what the numbers i'm going to give you but then i had one kind of f fit i'm going to throw something at the wall and see if it sticks so i have ty simpson to go in the top 32 just because i couldn't log the over of a quarterback and a half in the action app so that's the angle that I went for people to be able to follow me on that. I have Kenyon Sadiq going before 15 and a half, just because I think that there's a lot of options, but I only have a quarter unit on that.”
Kenyon Sadiq was drafted No. 16 overall by the New York Jets, missing the before-15.5 threshold.
“I have Francis, is it Magoa? How do you say his last name? Maui Goa, I believe. Maui Goa, is that how it is? I have him to be the first offensive lineman drafted, minus 234, which obviously not great value,”
Spencer Fano (OT, Utah) was the first offensive lineman drafted at No. 9; Francis Mauigoa went one pick later at No. 10.
“Same with Carnell Tate, first wide receiver drafted, minus 271.”
Carnell Tate (WR, Ohio State) was the first wide receiver drafted, No. 4 overall by the Tennessee Titans.
“And then I have Garrett Nesmeyer to be a top 32 NFL draft pick plus 5,692.”
Garrett Nussmeier (QB, LSU) was not drafted until No. 249 overall in Round 7 by the Kansas City Chiefs, missing the top-32 threshold.
“I have a bet in on the 49ers to take a wide receiver because a lot of their top 30 visits [40:18] were with wide receivers.”
The San Francisco 49ers drafted WR De'Zhaun Stribling (Ole Miss) at No. 33 overall, satisfying the unqualified bet that the 49ers would draft a wide receiver at any point.
“Let's go NFC East bet for the NFL Draft. Kendra, we will start with you. I think I'm going to keep it simple. I'm kind of falling into whether they stay or they go. The Cowboys being in love with Sonny Stiles or adding to the defense if they stay at their pick. I'm going to go with them to take a linebacker.”
The Dallas Cowboys used their first 2026 draft pick on S Caleb Downs (Ohio State) at No. 11, not a linebacker.
“at number seven, I'm going to say that Carnell Tate is on the board for Washington [48:41] and Carnell Tate's their pick at plus 225. [48:44] So I'll rock with that.”
Carnell Tate was drafted No. 4 overall by the Tennessee Titans; the Washington Commanders' pick at No. 7 was LB Sonny Styles.
“Sonny Styles, still the short shot to go to the giants at five. So that'll be my official play. The Caleb Downs thing, I think is more of a dream world. I don't think he's going to make it to 10, but Sonny Styles should be on the board at five at plus one 50.”
Sonny Styles was drafted No. 7 overall by Washington; the New York Giants' pick at No. 5 was LB Arvell Reese.
“I'm taking the Knicks to win the conference because As I've said all along, I think they're going to the NBA finals this year. And the take I've had throughout is that they'll get to the NBA finals and it will be an ugly. Did I just bully you into doing that? I'm so sorry. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Listen, it's a bet I've already made. So no bullying, no bullying necessary. Instead, I'm sticking to it. Knicks to win the Eastern Conference. That's what we're pointing to flag. Plus 450 on the Knicks to come out of the Eastern Conference.”
The New York Knicks won the 2026 Eastern Conference, sweeping the Cleveland Cavaliers 4-0 in the Conference Finals.
“I'm going to say this series over five and a half games minus 160. That's where I'm going to plant my flag.”
The Knicks beat the Hawks 4-2 in the 2026 NBA Playoffs first round, a 6-game series, going over the 5.5-game line. (Series went 6 games (Knicks won 4-2))
“I'm going the over one and a half quarterback selected in round one. I think three are going in the first round, and I'm sticking to it. I think it's a really good price, even though some people hate it. it is my favorite bet for the entire draft.”
Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft included exactly 2 quarterbacks: Fernando Mendoza (No. 1, Raiders) and Ty Simpson (No. 13, Rams), clearing the over 1.5 line. (2 QBs selected in Round 1 (Mendoza, Simpson))
“I'm going to go with a fun one here that I really like, and I've just kept adding to Chase Besantis, first round pick. It's like plus 300 to plus 400, depending on where you can find it.”
Chase Bisontis (OG, Texas A&M) was drafted No. 34 overall by the Arizona Cardinals in Round 2, not Round 1.
“I am going to close us out with the Chiefs to draft a safety at plus 650. I mentioned earlier they have to nail this pick at nine. Caleb Downs, if by some miracle he's sitting there when they pick, I think they're going to have to throw their needs out the window. They are drafting top 10 here. You can't get too need hungry. Yes, they need offensive line help. Yes, they need some better skill position players, but if he's there, he'll be the best player on the board. They just traded McDuffie. They need help in the secondary. And Caleb Downs is a stud and an adult on defense. They cannot afford to get this pick wrong. If he's there plus 650, I like him to go to the Kansas City Chiefs.”
The Kansas City Chiefs' first 2026 draft pick was CB Mansoor Delane (LSU) at No. 6 overall, not a safety.
“I took ACC players under 6.5 and minus 260.”
Exactly 6 ACC players were drafted in Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft: Francis Mauigoa, Rueben Bain Jr., and Akheem Mesidor (Miami), Blake Miller and Peter Woods (Clemson), and Keylan Rutledge (Georgia Tech) — under the 6.5 line. (6 ACC players drafted in Round 1)
“so you mentioned the rams and the receiver thing i think i looked this morning and it was plus 150 for them to take a receiver i kind of really like the value here because i'm in the camp that after everything going on with puka they might be looking to find a replacement for him and obviously davante because i don't expect he's going to be around much longer do you think that that's enough value there or would you need a little bit more to to get in on that considering that they do have both solidified and that's an early pick. No, I have that one written down. I think that that's a great bet. I mean, you're looking at this team. Devontae's aging. He's getting old. I think even if you had Puka here, like that could make sense to draft maybe a guy like Makai Lemon, you know, a guy that can play slot and like kick Devontae outside. He can spend a little bit of time learning and be good to go from there. Now you have Puka's offseason, you know, which I'm sure the Rams are not too pleased with. And so you have that with Devontae aging And, you know, the Rams don't always have higher picks like this and a chance to get like a potential playmaker. And I like too that you getting just a wide receiver So maybe they like Omar Cooper Maybe they like I don know maybe they take Inception You know like that very possible It wouldn be the craziest thing in the world for them to get a guy or Tyson falls or I can imagine Cardinal Tate falls that far But, you know, again, like you're getting all those different kinds of values there. So I like that bet at plus 150.”
The Los Angeles Rams drafted WR CJ Daniels (Miami) with pick No. 197 in Round 6 of the 2026 NFL Draft.
“head you guys know who it is for me I think I may have logged it in the app but I've definitely logged in draft kings I have Garrett Nussmeier going in the first round I think that he is the number two quarterback in this draft I know obviously the majority consensus is Ty Simpson but I think that Garrett Nussmeier has a far higher ceiling So if we sitting here with the prompt that we have that who is most likely to be”
Garrett Nussmeier was not selected in round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft; he fell to round 7 (pick 249 overall), taken by the Kansas City Chiefs, so the Round-1 prop lost.
“See, let's go Siwoo Kim outright 49 to 1, baby. So if it hits, we can clip this. I will be betting it myself.”
Rory McIlroy won the 2026 Masters at -12 (276); Si Woo Kim finished 47th at +4 (292), so the outright-winner futures bet lost.
“uh kendra what about you i was gonna go shawfly outright but just in case people want to parlay this i'm gonna go him top five plus 305 over on draft kings right now plus 305 top five”
Xander Schauffele finished T9 at -8 (280) at the 2026 Masters, outside the top 5, so the top-5-finish bet lost.
“Akshay Batia 57 to 1. The guy is 24 years old. He's won three times on the PGA Tour already. Fifth best tee to green on tour. How about that for stats, Kyle? So I'm a sucker for lefties at Augusta as well. I'll take Akshay for the long shot.”
Rory McIlroy won the 2026 Masters at -12 (276); Akshay Bhatia missed the cut at +2 (150) after two rounds, so the outright-winner futures bet lost.
“Fantastic. That right there, our plant the flag on the Masters out at Augusta, presented by DraftKings. A recap for you. Kendra is on Xander Shoffley, plus 305, top five finisher. Stucky is on Siwoo Kim 49 to 1 outright. I'm on Akshay Bhatia 57 to 1 outright winner and Kyle Murray Cam Young outright 23 to 1. And then Patrick Reed that was top 10 finish. Yep top 10.”
Rory McIlroy won the 2026 Masters at -12 (276); Cameron Young finished T3 at -10 (278), so the outright-winner futures bet lost.
“I like Patrick Reed for a top 10 as well.”
Patrick Reed finished T12 at -5 (283) at the 2026 Masters, outside the top 10, so the top-10-finish bet lost.
“I'm still going to stick with my Illinois choice just because I think their roster is better, and that matters more than a great coach with a lesser roster at this point.”
62-71 — UConn beat Illinois 71-62 in the NCAA Final Four national semifinal on 2026-04-04, so the Illinois moneyline bet lost.
“let's go Arizona plus one and a half. I make them a very, very tiny favorite.”
73-91 — Michigan beat Arizona 91-73 in the NCAA Final Four national semifinal on 2026-04-04, an 18-point margin that blew through Arizona's +1.5, so the spread bet lost.
“I am taking the most obvious home run bet of the day in Major League Baseball. I'm going Tyler O'Neill of the Baltimore Orioles. My Baltimore Orioles tabbed Mr. Opening Day. He has now hit a home run in six straight openers no matter what team he's on he hits home runs on opening day plus 308 on draft kings that's my dinger bet of the day”
Tyler O'Neill did not hit a home run on 2026 Opening Day; neither team hit a home run in the Orioles' 2-1 win over the Twins on March 26, 2026. (O'Neill 0 HR (no home runs by either team))
“when I filled out our notes this morning Roman Anthony was plus 400 to hit a home run he's now plus 413 so we've got even more value because we waited a little bit longer so I'm gonna go Roman Anthony. He's the future of the Red Sox.”
Roman Anthony did not hit a home run on 2026 Opening Day; he went 3-for-4 with a run scored but no homer as the Red Sox beat the Reds 3-0 on March 26, 2026. (Anthony 3-for-4, 0 HR)
“It's time now for our DraftKings tournament futures. New users are getting a 100% profit boost on NCAA tournament winner futures. So let's choose a winner that we can use this profit boost on. Kendra, we will start with you as we go around the horn. I am going to go with Duke. I know that you guys have been shitting on them this entire show, but they have the best player. If they're huge and can gain confidence on a tougher track to a sweet 16 or an elite eight, they're just stacked because of the NIL. I know that they're injured, but it just feels like it's a Duke year. And if I'm going to put a boost on something, I'm going to play it safe.”
Duke did not win the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament; Michigan defeated UConn in the championship game on April 6, 2026 to win the title. Duke was eliminated in the Elite Eight.
“It's time now for our DraftKings tournament futures. New users are getting a 100% profit boost on NCAA tournament winner futures. So let's choose a winner that we can use this profit boost on. Kendra, we will start with you as we go around the horn. I am going to go with Duke. I know that you guys have been shitting on them this entire show, but they have the best player. If they're huge and can gain confidence on a tougher track to a sweet 16 or an elite eight, they're just stacked because of the NIL. I know that they're injured, but it just feels like it's a Duke year. And if I'm going to put a boost on something, I'm going to play it safe. Calabrese? I'm going to go Houston. It's a team that I've basically been in love with the whole year.”
Houston did not win the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament; Michigan defeated UConn in the championship game on April 6, 2026 to win the title. Houston was eliminated before the Final Four.
“If I'm boosting something, I'm going to go with Purdue. I think that they're peaking at the right time.”
Purdue did not win the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament; Michigan defeated UConn in the championship game on April 6, 2026 to win the title. Purdue lost its West Regional Final to Arizona.
“right time. So I'm going to go with Purdue. I will stay in the big 10 for my selection. I'm going to go Illinois. I will take your advice, Stucky, and go slightly off the beaten path of the one seeds. They do fit my tournament qualifications. Top six team in terms of offense. The last eight national champions have been top six offensively. Number three in college basketball and offensive rebound rate. Top five in free throw percentage and sixth in terms of turnovers, all things that play well in the NCAA tournament. To recap here, Kendra has Duke. Stucky is on Purdue. I'll take the fighting Illini and our guest, Mike Calabrese, on the Houston Cougars. Our tournament plays presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours.”
Illinois did not win the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament; Michigan defeated UConn in the championship game on April 6, 2026 to win the title. Illinois reached the Final Four (beating Iowa 71-59 in the South Regional Final) but did not win it all.
“I put a nice hefty wager. One of the biggest I've ever placed on Trey Hendrickson to not be a Green Bay Packer.”
Trey Hendrickson signed a four-year, $112 million contract with the Baltimore Ravens on March 12, 2026; he did not sign with the Green Bay Packers, so the bet cashed.
“enough that I'm actually picking the DR not only to win the tournament, but to win their group as well, or their pool. I make them about minus 175 in pool D and I'm a lower on Venezuela.”
7-5 — The Dominican Republic finished Pool D of the 2026 World Baseball Classic undefeated at 4-0, clinching first place by beating Venezuela 7-5 on March 11, 2026 in the pool finale.
“i think plus 275 was what i got it at for usa men's and women's to win the gold”
Both parlay legs hit: USA women beat Canada 2-1 in overtime for gold on Feb 19, 2026, and USA men beat Canada 2-1 in overtime for gold on Feb 22, 2026. (USA women 2-1 (OT) Canada (Feb 19, 2026); USA men 2-1 (OT) Canada (Feb 22, 2026))
“I will plant my flag on Kansas beating Arizona tonight, handing them their first loss in Lawrence. That's my plant-a-flag for today. mark it down what's the line on that game i think Kansas plus two uh at home and Darren Peterson as long as he plays i don't know sometimes they there's he doesn't play in the second half of games i think his his people call down and say don't play but he played like the entire game against Utah on Saturday so but if he plays the whole game Kansas beats Arizona tonight”
82-78 — Kansas beat Arizona 82-78 on Feb 9, 2026, handing Arizona its first loss of the season; Kansas won by 4, covering the +2 line for the Kansas bettor (equivalent to Kansas -2 favorite covering).
“I do have the heat minus seven tonight.”
111-115 — Utah Jazz beat Miami Heat 115-111 at home for Miami on Feb 9, 2026; the Heat lost outright, so Miami Heat -7 busted.
“First one is going to be Seattle team total under 25.5 points.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Seattle scored 29 team points in Super Bowl LX (ESPN box score), over the 25.5 line.
“The other will go with, let's go Hunter Henry over 39.5 receiving yards.”
Hunter Henry had 31 receiving yards in Super Bowl LX (ESPN box score), under the 39.5 line. (Hunter Henry: 31 receiving yards)
“so like where and i don't think the ride receivers are going to be able to get separation so where are all the targets going they got to go to henry a lot of them like it's going to be henry in the backs so why not receptions then on i like receptions too but i think that there's a chance he gets i like the over longest uh reception of 17 and a half too”
Hunter Henry's longest reception went for 16 yards (ESPN box score), under the 17.5 line. (Hunter Henry longest reception: 16 yards)
“The prop for the total number of songs performed by Bad Bunny is set at 11 and a half. The line seems pretty high. I was doing some total song research. triana got up to 12 so kendra action or distraction on betting the under on bad bunny total songs performed i saw you put this in here and i did some research as well and i have wound up on the under strong i'm gonna say probably like the nine or ten area”
Bad Bunny performed a 12-song/medley setlist at the Super Bowl LX halftime show (Wikipedia), over the 11.5 line. (12 songs performed)
“So this was the, I've already put this in to the action app, but I put this in my pickle prop because I'm hoping that it will make people think as hard about Jake Bobo as I did, because I don't know if that's punishment or not, but I did a lot of Jake Bobo research and I have him over half a receiving yard. I was looking at the difference in price between him to have a receiving yard and to have a reception and Kravitz and I went over this prior to us hopping on here, but it was plus 180 for a receiving yard”
Jake Bobo did not record a catch in Super Bowl LX — he does not appear in the Seahawks' receiving table (ESPN box score) — so he finished with 0 receiving yards, under the 0.5 line. (Jake Bobo: 0 receptions, 0 yards)
“One Cooper Cup for an anytime plus 250.”
Cooper Kupp had 6 receptions for 61 yards but no touchdown in Super Bowl LX (ESPN box score), so the anytime-TD prop missed. (Cooper Kupp: 6 rec, 61 yds, 0 TD)
“Or I'll be nice and go either quarterback for a pick because I expect both of them to have one in this game. I think I like the quarterback pick. Which one you want? We have to pick one. I'm going to go with Sam Darnold. Because I've got both of them logged in the app. So I'm open to either. I think the pressure that New England can create in the interior of the offensive line of Seattle is going to force Darnold into some old habits. And I think he's also going to try and force feed JSN. Why wouldn't you? So I think Darnold more likely. I think there is an over one and a half interceptions. In the game? Yeah. There's got to be. I mean, there's just has to be. What is that? I kind of like that. Do you like that? Over one and a half total. Yeah, I would go with that. I mean, I parlayed both of them to have an interception.”
Sam Darnold threw zero interceptions in Super Bowl LX while Drake Maye threw two (ESPN box score); since both quarterbacks needed an interception, Darnold's leg missed and the parlay lost. (Darnold: 0 INT; Maye: 2 INT)
“I think we're getting major value on the Patriots here. And if this game or any other game throughout the season all three of us would be pounding the table for new England plus four and a half No doubt in my mind”
SEA 29-NE 13 — New England lost 13-29, missing the +4.5 spread by well over a touchdown.
“Drake Maye it's plus 525 yes let's go Drake Maye all right there we go our two kings and a queen parlay in a roundabout way has been nominated four plus receptions for Hunter Henry Patriots plus four and a half Drake Maye throws at least one int plus 525 over on draft kings where the crown is yours”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Hunter Henry had 3 receptions (missing the 4+ leg) and New England lost by 16 (missing +4.5); Drake Maye did throw an interception (2 INT), covering that leg — but two of three legs missed, so the parlay lost. (Henry: 3 rec; Maye: 2 INT)
“JSN Receptions. Here's one I can get down with well we taking JSN straight up against Jaylen Brown rebounds This is the kind of fun stuff that you can bet when it comes to super bowl Sunday Jaylen Brown and the Celtics taking on the New York Knicks and Brown averages 5 rebounds per game against the Knicks the last three seasons This guy with Jason Tatum not in the lineup this year has been a rebounding machine. We see him get it up to double digits quite frequently. JSN certainly capable of doing that in the receiving game. I wish there was a nice long shot at the number being exactly the same. I would be willing to bet that. But who do you think comes out on top? JSN receptions versus Jaylen Brown and rebounds. I love the JSN here, right? Our guy Brandon Anderson's over and he's all over JSN props for this Super Bowl, in part because I think he just wants any way to just hate on the Patriots as much as humanly possible. Yeah, our producer notes the tie is only plus 800, which is a little bit nuts. I would need double digits at the very least. Which goes to Stucky's points about these markets. But the key here is like, yeah, Jalen averages a lot of rebounds, but he does it versus non-teams that are not dominant on the glass. That's like there's a couple of teams in the league that are just simply built on rebounding, and the Knicks are one of them. They're such a dominant rebounding team. One of the things, though, I think is that the Knicks are playing better defense lately, so that creates more misses, which obviously creates a better opportunity. But the Celtics also play at a really glacial pace. They're one of the slowest teams in the league. Knicks will let them play that slow. They're not looking to push the ball. And their wings are so good at rebounding. Not just OG Ananobi, but Mikael Bridges is actually a sneaky good rebounder. And Miles McBride actually routinely does a really good job of managing the defensive glass at least. So you don't have these offensive opportunities. I don't think there's going to be a lot of chances for Jalen to get the ball and race up the floor. So to me, this is like JSN. This is a great one. everyone on the bucket side loves taking JSN receptions over Jaylen Brown rebounds.”
Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 4 receptions in Super Bowl LX (ESPN NFL box score) vs Jaylen Brown's 2 rebounds in the Celtics' 111-89 loss to the Knicks the same day (ESPN NBA box score); JSN's side wins, 4 > 2. (JSN: 4 receptions; Jaylen Brown: 2 rebounds)
“All right, so if you go no, it's minus 425. Yes, I would bet no. Yes, I would bet no. That sounds like insanely good value.”
New England's only two-point conversion attempt (a fourth-quarter pass to Hunter Henry) failed, so no successful two-point conversion occurred in Super Bowl LX; the No bet cashes.
“you can get the the seahawks over four and a half players rush attempt at like plus 135 i like that”
Exactly four Seahawks recorded a rush attempt in Super Bowl LX — Kenneth Walker III, George Holani, Sam Darnold, and Rashid Shaheed (ESPN box score) — under the 4.5 line. (4 Seahawks rushers: Walker III, Holani, Darnold, Shaheed)
“Siakam points and rebounds versus TreVeyon Henderson rushing and receiving. Siakam's price minus 130. So I think what's interesting on this is Chris Raybon gave out this week on Action Network, you can catch it in the app, 50 plus yards for Henderson at plus 750. Long shot on him for one of the props. So you can kind of take a position that's almost it's not pure here there's a lot there's some variance in there but i almost kind of like taking taking siakam as the seat as the the siaks win that battle of the of the rushing game and then henderson breaks it according to chris's prop so i think there's actually a little bit of value on looking at that one and deciding at least which side of that coin you're on yeah when i was looking at that one you said coin sorry sorry start no more no more coins this this one feels like free money with the way that Seattle is able to gobble up an opponent's run game and Travion Henderson has not involved, have been involved in the receiving game. I do think that the Patriots could possibly get creative here as Kendra was mentioning because if they don use Henderson here I think their ability to create explosive plays is going to be pretty much non But we just haven't seen it recently. Siakam, I mean, you kind of know what you're going to get from him. I feel like this is priced correctly, but Siakam to me feels like the side. So you're saying that you think Siakam is the bet and yet and then moonshotting Travion. Am I reading that correctly? Yeah.”
Pascal Siakam had 18 points + 4 rebounds = 22 for the Pacers in a 122-104 loss at Toronto (ESPN NBA box score); TreVeyon Henderson had 19 rushing + 26 receiving = 45 yards in Super Bowl LX (ESPN NFL box score). Henderson's side is higher, so Siakam's side lost. (Siakam: 18 pts + 4 reb = 22; Henderson: 19 rush + 26 rec = 45 yds)
“I love Rashid Shahid MVP here at 30-1. I love it.”
Kenneth Walker III (135 rushing yards) was named Super Bowl LX MVP, not Rashid Shaheed.
“Kendra, what about you? Long shot MVP. I gave out Milton Williams on my show on Saturday. You're telling me that, yes, Drake May is the best player on the Patriots, but I would say he's the most valuable, but Milton Williams is the best. He, outside of Drake, is their number one playmaker on that team. It's the most likely defensive Super Bowl we've seen in I don't even know how long. If both of these quarterbacks turn back into shells of themselves, what we've seen from Drake made with the fumbles in the postseason, the person we know, Sam Darnold, can be with the interceptions. If this is a bad quarterbacking game, which a lot of people are thinking there's potential for it to be, it's the first chance they're getting on this stage if they both get nervous, defensive football. And you're going to give me the Patriots' second best player with those odds. He could get a fumble. He could get a sack. He could have both. If there's any argument that he may let someone can make, it's Milton Williams for me. I am looking defense as”
Kenneth Walker III (135 rushing yards) was named Super Bowl LX MVP, not Milton Williams.
“well. I'm a flip to the other team. Demarcus Lawrence, 90 to one odds on favorite to lead the game in sacks. And here we have Drake May that's been sacked 62 times. That's number one in the NFL. He's had six fumbles in the playoffs. Five of those have come on strip sacks. Four of those came on may's blind side will campbell's been an issue demarcus lawrence super bowl mvp 90 to 1 if seattle does win in a blowout it's going to be because their defense just wreaks havoc on that patriots offensive line i don't necessarily think the game is going to go that way but if we're talking long shot i'm trying to predict an extreme game script and the most extreme with that is still a possibility is that seattle just runs away with this and they do it defensively”
Kenneth Walker III (135 rushing yards) was named Super Bowl LX MVP, not DeMarcus Lawrence.
“The odds-on favorite right now is Titi Mi Pregunto. OK, that one's that one's the favorite right now. And then the next highest is by a inolvidable, I believe is the word. Kendra, what's the first song that's going to be played by Bad Bunny? It has to be Monaco. There is no other option, in my opinion, because I feel like he is a theatrical performer. And I expect that violin intro to be him with like the lights and everything, giving people a minute to feel him coming out, feel like the show that's about to go down. He has to start with Monaco. It's the most iconic entrance to a song he has. And the shot of that happening, I think if I am correct, Gifford sent me 1900 yesterday. So I think it has to be Monaco. That's great. Awesome.”
Bad Bunny opened the Super Bowl LX halftime show with 'Tití Me Preguntó,' not 'Mónaco,' which came later in the 12-song set.
“the only thing that i've placed are a bunch of hunter henry props have him over catches over receiving yards over longest receiving yard our over longest catch uh so i think 16 and a half and 17 and a half”
Hunter Henry finished with 3 receptions in Super Bowl LX (ESPN box score); no numeric line was stated on air, but against the closing receptions line of 3.5, the over misses. (Hunter Henry: 3 receptions)
“the only thing that i've placed are a bunch of hunter henry props have him over catches over receiving yards over longest receiving yard our over longest catch uh so i think 16 and a half and 17 and a half”
Hunter Henry had 31 receiving yards in Super Bowl LX (ESPN box score), under the closing line of 39.5. (Hunter Henry: 31 receiving yards)
“the only thing that i've placed are a bunch of hunter henry props have him over catches over receiving yards over longest receiving yard our over longest catch uh so i think 16 and a half and 17 and a half”
Hunter Henry's longest reception went for 16 yards (ESPN box score), under the 16.5 line. (Hunter Henry longest reception: 16 yards)
“Halani over one and a half receptions.”
George Holani finished with 1 reception in Super Bowl LX (ESPN box score), under the 1.5 line. (George Holani: 1 reception)
“Demario Douglas under 11 and a half receiving yards.”
DeMario Douglas had 45 receiving yards in Super Bowl LX (ESPN box score, 5 receptions), well over the 11.5 line. (DeMario Douglas: 45 receiving yards)
“First quarter under eight and a half.”
3-0 — The first quarter total was 3 points (Seahawks 3, Patriots 0) per the ESPN scoring summary, well under 8.5.
“So that 46 and a half is sitting there.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Seahawks beat Patriots 29-13 (42 total); Over 46.5 busts.
“two ways either drake may is going to be able to continue to look the way that he has he's going to elevate in a big moment and they're gonna you know go touchdown for touchdown or seattle is gonna beat the crap out of them and put 46 up on their own that's that's what the only two way i see it going i think seattle wins no matter what probably i don't love this number but i'm definitely gonna go with seattle to win this game um but i think either they're gonna go bow for bow or Seattle is just going to run away with it.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Seattle Seahawks won Super Bowl LX 29-13; moneyline cashes.
“I just, at a three, even an expensive three, I'd have to play the Rams.”
SEA 31, LAR 27 — Seahawks beat Rams 31-27 in the NFC Championship; the Rams' 4-point loss fails to cover +3 (ESPN box score).
“I had the Rams money line plus one 30 and then Denver to cover the four and a half.”
SEA 31, LAR 27 — Seahawks beat Rams 31-27 in the NFC Championship, so the Rams moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I had the Rams money line plus one 30 and then Denver to cover the four and a half.”
NE 10, DEN 7 — Patriots beat Broncos 10-7 in the AFC Championship; Denver's 3-point loss covers the +4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So I'm looking at some Stidham rushing props. We've kind of talked a little bit about how mobile he actually is. And I get that the Patriots game plan is going to be to stack the box, have Milton Williams waiting there for the run. They're going to make Jarrett Stidham beat him with his arm. But I don't think people are taking into account how mobile Jared actually is. And I think that this number kind of shows that I was on DraftKings earlier. 15 plus rushing yards from him is minus 111 or over 20 is plus 148. I think over 20, that's kind of a really, really good price in my opinion. But what do you guys think? I'm kind of sitting here on which one to get on. Does he run a lot? I mean, his stats in the past, which we have a very limited sample of. He's pretty mobile. No, he hasn't run a ton in the past. He does have some ability, but he was playing behind atrocious offensive lines. Bad lines. With offenses that didn't use the quarterback to run. So I could see it. Patriots have been glitzing a lot. Yeah, I was going to say. They make bone runs. I think they're going to – Peyton's got to get creative. And they use Nix's legs a ton, so I think it would make sense to, you know, have some of those same plays and use Stidham's legs. And the Patriots, the one constant, the one thing that I do believe in with the Patriots, like you could go, I mean, May is very, very good. But you cannot deny that he played no top 10 defenses all year until the past two weeks, and he has six fumbles and hasn't looked as effective. The offensive line is problematic. But their run defense is legitimate when healthy, and now they're fully healthy. You saw them slip a little bit at the end of the year when you had Milton Williams in particular with her Tonga, and they had some injuries at the linebacker, and their run defense slipped a bit. But when they were healthy, you know, over the first 12 weeks of the season and then, you know, since the very end of the regular season when they got fully healthy, that run defense is dominant. You can't really run on them. So traditionally with with your running back. So that is one thing that I am as someone who bet the Broncos. That is one thing that I am worried about. You have a backup quarterback with a really good offensive line, but I don't know how much Stidham is going to be able to rely on a complimentary rushing attack, which is always a nice thing to have. But because of that, one of the ways that Peyton can counteract that is to get more creative in the run game. So that could be, you know, some jet sweeps, getting Mims involved and then using Stidham's legs, rolling him out, maybe, you know, some designed runs. He's going to have to scramble a bit. So, yeah, I don't mind that look at all. I kind of think it's all or nothing either Stidham is going to be involved in the run game and you go with the bigger payout or I agree I like the 20 plus more yeah I think I think it's yeah 20 plus or pass that plus 148 for Kendra Middleton you feel better about that one no I feel good about it just because like I said like they do have Bo run straight down the middle of the field often and I could see them trying to get Jarrett involved”
Broncos QB Jarrett Stidham rushed 4 times for 23 yards in the AFC Championship, clearing over 20 rushing yards (ESPN box score). (Jarrett Stidham: 23 rushing yards (4 carries))
“I'm on the Patriots to win the Superbowl. I bet that right when Bo Nix went down”
SEA 29, NE 13 — New England lost Super Bowl LX 29-13 to Seattle, so the Patriots-to-win-it-all future does not cash (ESPN box score).
“i'm not betting seattle minus the points i am paying up to take them on the money line”
SEA 31, LAR 27 — Seahawks beat Rams 31-27 in the NFC Championship, so the Seahawks moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“and Kenneth Walker III over 85 and a half yards rushing”
Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III rushed 19 times for 62 yards in the NFC Championship, falling short of over 85.5 rushing yards (ESPN box score). (Kenneth Walker III: 62 rushing yards (19 carries))
“Patriots Broncos first half under will be where I plant my flag. I have not bet a side for either of these games yet. So I had to look off the board a little bit. Under 20 and a half is the number that I'm looking at here.”
7-7 — The AFC Championship was tied 7-7 at halftime for a first-half total of 14, staying under 20.5 (ESPN box score; final was Patriots 10, Broncos 7).
“and historically like I mentioned Sunday New England does not play well in Denver in the postseason it's a really tough place to play so I don't think that the five and a half is going to get any better I think if anything it's going to get worse so take the five and a half on DraftKings while you can get it I did it this morning that's where I'm at stuck yeah I'm going”
NE 10, DEN 7 — Patriots beat Broncos 10-7 in the AFC Championship; Denver's 3-point loss covers the +5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So, yeah, I'm going to plant my flag on the Broncos plus five and a half.”
NE 10, DEN 7 — Patriots beat Broncos 10-7 in the AFC Championship; Denver's 3-point loss covers the +5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I took the second the Bo Nix news came out. [17:45] I bet the Patriots a plus 425 to win the Super Bowl. [17:48] And I'll just take my chances with whoever they end up against.”
SEA 29, NE 13 — New England reached Super Bowl LX but lost 29-13 to Seattle, so the Patriots-to-win-it-all future does not cash (ESPN box score).
“We are riding with Jared Stidham and the Denver Broncos, [44:16] plus five and a half in the AFC Championship game.”
NE 10, DEN 7 — Patriots beat Broncos 10-7 in the AFC Championship; Denver's 3-point loss covers the +5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“i'm gonna like the nfc team in the super bowl and at most books you can just bet that nfc [49:24] to win the super bowl minus 220 at our sponsor draft kings that's the bet here”
SEA 29, NE 13 — NFC champion Seattle Seahawks beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX, so the NFC-to-win future cashes (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go Rams over. Well, the first one is Bills. I'm just checking the updated prices. Yeah, we can still do 45.5. Bills, Broncos, under 45.5. Talked about the advantages for both defenses. I think that's going to be just a grinding, low-possession, bleeding-clock type of game. both defenses i think have major schematic advantages the two high for the bills against bo nicks the man coverage against uh josh allen and those receivers uh defenses getting healthier so we'll go under there then i'm going to go rams over 26 and a half this total has come down because of the weather i don't think the wind is going to be completely devastating i can't see a world where the Rams don't get the 27 without flukes. I mean, there could be turnovers and things like that. But if you remove the top five defenses the Rams played on their schedule, so Seattle, Philly, and Houston, and by the way, they should have put up 30 plus against Philly. They did put up 38 in one of the games against Seattle. Well, let's just remove those games. I mean, the Bears are like a bottom eight or nine defense. They're 30th in EPA without turnovers. They're 28th in DVOA, 26th in success rate. I mean, you could argue there's a bottom five defense that's still left in the NFL playoffs. But the Rams' points versus non-top five defenses, 34, 33, 27, 23, 35, 34, 42, 34, 28, 45, 41, 24, 37, 17. They averaging close to 33 points per game in 14 games, 27 plus and 11 of those. and the bears defense is 24th and points per game allowed despite leading the league in takeaways and turnover margin which there some looming regression there i expect both coaches to be aggressive rams offensive line trending up No Edwards The Rams should be able to run all over the Bears all over them I mean, without Edwards, they're giving up. They're already giving up five yards per carry, which is 29th in the league. Without Edwards, it's 5.7, which would be the worst in the league among all teams. And we talk about Stafford in the cold. First of all, it's a tiny sample size. Second of all, let's go back to the most recent data point, which is in the plow, in the snow against the team that went on to win the Super Bowl. And he was great in Philly last year. And the other factor here is the Rams defense is cratering. Over the first 12 weeks, they were first in EPA per play. But they got to face Cooper Rush and the Ravens. They faced C.J. Stroud when he had the offensive line injuries right before the game in the first game of the year. And they had to switch around their whole offensive line. Cam Warden, a second start, Spencer Rattler, the Bucs, Baker got hurt and was Teddy Bridgewater, I think, for the entire game. So the first half of the year, they were benefiting from a lot of offensive line quarterback situations. Over the past seven games, they're 20th in EPA per play. They're giving up a ton of explosives. The Bears offense can hit those explosives. I expect the Bears to move the ball. I expect the Bears to put up points. That will force the Rams. I don't think the Rams are going to go up 23-10, and then that's it. And then the Bears – and we see this Bears team. This Bears team can score 20-plus points in the fourth quarter. McVay knows that, and there's going to be game pressure on the Rams to keep scoring. So I like the Rams over 26-and-a-half points. So Rams over 26-and-a-half, and the under in Bears-Bills. Excuse me, in Bills-Broncos. I just bet the under literally on this show. So I think that that is my option.”
DEN 33, BUF 30 — Broncos beat Bills 33-30 in overtime; combined total of 63 sails over 45.5, so the under busts (ESPN box score).
“So I like the Rams over 26-and-a-half points.”
LAR 20, CHI 17 — Rams beat Bears 20-17 in overtime; Rams' team total of 20 points falls under 26.5, so the over busts (ESPN box score).
“Excuse me, in Bills-Broncos. I just bet the under literally on this show. So I think that that is my option. I can definitely get there on both of these, but I'm about to lean into one of my picks is Rams bears over 48 and a half. So to diversify my portfolio here, I am going to take the under in bills, Broncos as well. That'll be my vote. That one was a lot easier. Look at that. Full agreement. It happens when you bring some nice picks at the table. Let's see if Brad would bring it. Once again, I hate Kravitz's options. I didn't even look at them yet. I can't wait for these. Like, I literally, I swear. You ate last week. Don't get me wrong. You yucked my yum But once again I feel like you making me choose between Satan and the devil for entertainment purposes Well I mean I could just copy and paste everything that Stucky just said about the Rams. I'm just looking at, I just don't get how you guys aren't worried about the weather. I am, but the totals come down. So like I was, I was looking at the under, I mentioned this on the show earlier this week. I was looking at the under 51 and a half, but it's moved three points through key numbers. So at 48 and a half, I could only look at the over. So that and that's the exact thought process here is that we've seen this this opened at 51 and a half. I think we're at a buy point now in the other direction. And the Rams defense, as Stucky mentioned, has been shaky. They made Bryce Young look like an all pro last week. Hey, Carolina was perfect in the red zone. The last seven games, teams have scored 27 or more five times against the Rams. The bears dropped 31 last week, and those were less than ideal weather conditions. Their defense can't get stops. Chicago's nearly dead last in every defensive category other than takeaways there. And it's because their DBs are so overly aggressive. That's not going to work against Adams and Puka Nakua linebacker injuries. Kyron Williams, Blake Corum. I agree. Those guys are going to go off and both teams. I think this is another factor here that makes me absolutely love the over at this number. is that both of these coaches, McVay and Ben Johnson, are two of the most aggressive coaches in the NFL on fourth down among the teams that made it to the playoffs. So this is even including teams that made it into the wildcard round that have been eliminated. Only the Bills attempted more fourth downs than the Rams and the Bears. I love, love the over at 48 and a half. And then the other one is the Bills. Now they're point and a half underdogs. My plant the flag was them on the money line on Tuesday. Rinse, recycle, repeat. I'm not going anywhere on this number. The Broncos 3-5 against the spread in their last eight games. Evan has astutely pointed out on the primer what one seeds have been doing off of the buy, 43% since 2003, 3-7 against the spread since 2020. The Broncos are 25th in success rate on offense. That is not going to fly in the playoffs. So as good as their defense is, I think this game is going to be close. Who do you want your money on in a close game in the fourth quarter Josh Allen or Bo Nix A healthy team At that point just give me God himself Josh Allen So Bills plus one and a half, Bears-Rams over 48 and a half. Those are my two nominees. Stucky? Well, we know that Kendra's not going to back the Bills. I'm not either, and I like the over, so I think this is an easy choice. So we go Rams bears over 48 and a half Broncos bills under 45 and a half and the bears plus four and a half alt plus five 50 on draft Kings.”
LAR 20, CHI 17 — Rams beat Bears 20-17 in overtime; combined total of 37 stays under 48.5, so the over busts (ESPN box score).
“I did make a bet on this game I like the Patriots team total under 21 and a half”
NE 28, HOU 16 — Patriots beat Texans 28-16; Patriots' team total of 28 points goes over 21.5, so the under busts (ESPN box score).
“I love, love the over at 48 and a half.”
LAR 20, CHI 17 — Rams beat Bears 20-17 in overtime; combined total of 37 stays under 48.5, so the over busts (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to offer you guys the Broncos money line or the Bears plus three. I like the Bronco.”
DEN 33, BUF 30 — Broncos beat Bills 33-30 in overtime, so the Broncos moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“So we go Rams bears over 48 and a half Broncos bills under 45 and a half and the bears plus four and a half alt plus five 50 on draft Kings.”
LAR 20, CHI 17 — Parlay needs all three legs: Rams-Bears went 20-17 (total 37, under 48.5 — leg lost), Bills-Broncos went 33-30 (total 63, over 45.5 — leg lost), and Bears lost by 3 (covering +4.5 — leg won); two losing legs bust the parlay (ESPN box scores).
“I'm going to go with my Uber driver's pick of the Patriots money line”
NE 28, HOU 16 — Patriots beat Texans 28-16 on Jan 18, 2026 in the AFC Divisional Round; New England moneyline won (ESPN).
“the first half for what it worth um but i gonna go lines more efficient this time of the year which makes teasers specifically teasers across three and seven more valuable So I think one of the better plays on the board teasing the Seahawks from seven and a half down to one and a half, and then the Texans from two and a half up to eight and a half. That one, there's still some uncertainty with Nego Collins and Christian”
SEA 41, SF 6 (covers); NE 28, HOU 16 (Texans miss +8.5) — Seahawks beat 49ers 41-6 on Jan 17, 2026 (covering -1.5), but Patriots beat Texans 28-16 on Jan 18, 2026 — Houston lost by 12, missing the +8.5 teased number, busting the teaser (ESPN).
“I'm going to go with the Bills money line.”
DEN 33, BUF 30 (OT) — Broncos beat Bills 33-30 in overtime on Jan 17, 2026; Buffalo moneyline lost (ESPN).
“Allen is in hero ball mode. I think he goes out and gets a win. Now, on the teaser front, I am playing this from both sides. So I want to be completely transparent on this. I like the Bills on the money line. I also teased the Broncos when they were one and a half up to seven and a half and the Seahawks down to one. So I would love if this was a Bills win somewhere between one and seven. That would be ideal profit for me. But I do like the Bills on the money line.”
DEN 33, BUF 30 (OT); SEA 41, SF 6 — Broncos beat Bills 33-30 in overtime on Jan 17, 2026 (winning outright, covering +7.5), and Seahawks beat 49ers 41-6 (covering -1 easily); both teaser legs won (ESPN).
“uh nonetheless the three things i were looking at were i kind of like woody marks to get in the end zone even in a low scoring game if i had to pick a touchdown that would probably be my guy i actually really like mvs over nine and a half receiving yards uh i just feel like in this type of game even with metcalf back he's going to force it into the tight ends but i also think he's going to force into guys he likes because that's just who the hell rogers is so i like that nine and a half”
Marquez Valdes-Scantling gained 26 receiving yards in Pittsburgh's 30-6 Wild Card loss to Houston on Jan 12, 2026, over 9.5 (ESPN box score). (Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 26 receiving yards)
“give me the under 46 and a half at draft kings seahawks and niners”
SEA 41, SF 6 — Seahawks beat 49ers 41-6 on Jan 17, 2026; combined 47 points, over the 46.5 total (ESPN).
“This is my Super Bowl pick, my favorite. I think they the surer win of these teams even though they a bit shorter on the line So I probably be back on Rams and Alts this week So I just going to ride the two favorites here I think the public will as well especially with all the injury news So I think these lines do rise a little bit, maybe towards six-ish for the Rams, maybe to seven or past for Seattle. We're getting plus 100 on the Moneyline Parlay. I think by game day next weekend, maybe more like minus 125, 130. So let's grab a Rams-Seattle Moneyline parlay at even odds, plus 100, and call it a wrap.”
SEA 41-6 SF; LAR 20-17 (OT) CHI — Seahawks beat 49ers 41-6 on Jan 17, 2026 and Rams beat Bears 20-17 in overtime on Jan 18, 2026; both parlay legs won (ESPN).
“Let's go Steelers Moneyline.”
PIT 6, HOU 30 — Texans beat Steelers 30-6 on Jan 12, 2026; Pittsburgh moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go with the Packers' money line.”
GB 27, CHI 31 — Bears beat Packers 31-27 on Jan 10, 2026; Green Bay moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“And let's go the Chargers plus three and a half.”
NE 16, LAC 3 — Patriots beat Chargers 16-3 on Jan 11, 2026; Chargers lost by 13, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN).
“games, the national championship, and for Monday night football. And since this is an NFL show, and we're talking Monday night football, let's fit in a little Texans Steelers. We'll give out one pick a piece for the Monday night football action. Kendra, get us started. So Stucky has something that I have later on in the show to discuss. So I'm going to go with Pat Fryer move for an anytime plus 390 like the tight end matchup here. He's been getting a lot of love recently. I don't know if you guys saw that video of him after the game, after the kick on Sunday. He's just he is their go-to guy in clutch moments. Most of his catches wind up in the end zone somehow. It seems I'm going to go Pat Freiermuth in a big moment. I think the obvious answer here would probably be to be DK Metcalf but I like the Friermuth value at plus 390 on DraftKings right now But I think DK in bet jail for what he did in getting himself suspended at the end of the year And he should give his game check to Tyler Loop”
Pat Freiermuth had 1 catch for 18 yards and no touchdown in Pittsburgh's 30-6 Wild Card loss to Houston on Jan 12, 2026 (ESPN box score). (Pat Freiermuth: 1 reception, 18 yards, 0 TD)
“Kendra. Okay. I brought, I brought the Steelers plus three.”
PIT 6, HOU 30 — Texans beat Steelers 30-6 on Jan 12, 2026; Pittsburgh lost by 24, failing to cover +3 (ESPN box score).
“And then I'm going to throw the Eagles money line in here,”
PHI 19, SF 23 — 49ers beat Eagles 23-19 on Jan 11, 2026; Philadelphia moneyline lost (ESPN).
“I have, we're all in the Steelers here. I have a correlation to the Steelers look. If they are able to move the ball down the field against this Houston defense, it's going to be because of the quick passing game to Kenneth Gainwell. I like him over five and a half receptions at plus 109. Rogers has to get the ball out of his hands quickly to mitigate this pass rush.”
Kenneth Gainwell caught 4 passes in Pittsburgh's 30-6 Wild Card loss to Houston on Jan 12, 2026, under 5.5 receptions (ESPN box score). (Kenneth Gainwell: 4 receptions)
“I'm going to sit right in the middle between the two of you. I have two bets on this game. One is a prop. I'm going to cue that one up later, potentially. The other is in the derivatives market. 13 to 1, this game goes to overtime.”
GB 27, CHI 31 — Bears beat Packers 31-27 in regulation on Jan 10, 2026; the game did not reach overtime (ESPN box score).
“are Colston Loveland over three and a half receptions against the Packers or the Bills”
Colston Loveland caught 8 passes for 137 yards in Chicago's 31-27 Wild Card win over Green Bay on Jan 10, 2026, well over 3.5 receptions (ESPN box score). (Colston Loveland: 8 receptions, 137 yards)
“so my nominees [45:48] are Colston Loveland over three and a half receptions against the Packers or the Bills [45:53] minus one here.”
BUF 27, JAX 24 — Bills beat Jaguars 27-24 on Jan 11, 2026; Buffalo won by 3, covering -1 (ESPN box score).
“i put it in our bets i like them to [59:14] win the super bowl at six to one”
Houston won its Wild Card game but lost 28-16 to New England in the AFC Divisional Round on Jan 18, 2026, eliminating any path to winning Super Bowl LX (ESPN).
“It's not going to be my plan at the flag game, but I played the Chargers plus three and a half.”
NE 16, LAC 3 — Patriots beat Chargers 16-3 on Jan 11, 2026; Chargers lost by 13, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN).
“I made the ghastly mistake. The reason why I was stuck on the 49ers being the most injured team going into the postseason. I bet them too early. I got drunk on the plus three at even money odds, and it is now up to plus four and a half.”
PHI 19, SF 23 — 49ers beat Eagles 23-19 on Jan 11, 2026; San Francisco won by 4, covering +3 (ESPN).
“I'm going to go with the under 44 and a half in this game.”
PHI 19, SF 23 — 49ers beat Eagles 23-19 on Jan 11, 2026; combined 42 points, under the 44.5 total (ESPN).
“I'm going to plant my flag on the Jags' first half money line. So I think that this – I don't mind the Jags for the full game, but I'm more confident in them early in this game.”
BUF 27, JAX 24 — Bills led Jaguars 10-7 at halftime en route to a 27-24 win on Jan 11, 2026; Jacksonville's first-half moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“I will be planting my flag on the Carolina Panthers plus 10 against the LA Rams.”
CAR 31, LAR 34 — Rams beat Panthers 34-31 on Jan 10, 2026; Carolina lost by 3, covering +10 (ESPN).
“The total is still sitting at 41 and a half. Kendra and I both like the under tonight at 41 and a half.”
26-24 — Steelers beat Ravens 26-24; the combined 50 points sail well over the 41.5 total, so Under busts (ESPN box score).
“i bet some vikings minus six which was like scary knowing that you could be betting max prosner minus six”
16-3 — Vikings beat Packers 16-3, a 13-point margin that covers -6 (ESPN box score).
“But Rico Dowdle, I'm going to go over 60 rushing yards for him, plus 121. He needs seven yards for incentives, but they need a big day from him regardless.”
Rico Dowdle rushed 7 times for 10 yards against Tampa Bay, well under the 60.5 rushing-yard line (ESPN box score). (Dowdle: 7 car, 10 rush yds)
“I'm going to take San Francisco here plus the one and a half. The 49ers have been scorching hot.”
3-13 — Seahawks beat 49ers 13-3; San Francisco lost by 10, well outside the +1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'm going with the bangles. Probably my favorite side of the week. even if seven and I played some seven would play seven and a half”
20-18 — Browns beat Bengals 20-18; Cincinnati lost outright, so -7 busts (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to go with the Vikings. I don't care. Seven and a half lay it. This is just one team not trying versus one team trying.”
16-3 — Vikings beat Packers 16-3, a 13-point margin that covers -7.5 (ESPN box score).
“The Raiders plus 5.5. I know no one's going to vote for that. But that line is ridiculous.”
12-14 — Raiders beat Chiefs 14-12; Las Vegas won outright, easily covering +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“Bengals minus six and a half all. Commanders plus four and a half. Gross. And Vikings minus seven and a half. Plus 485 at DraftKings.”
Parlay busts on the Bengals leg: Browns beat Bengals 20-18 so Bengals -6.5 loses outright; Commanders beat Eagles 24-17 covering +4.5 (won); Vikings beat Packers 16-3 covering -7.5 (won). One losing leg sinks the parlay (ESPN box scores).
“We'll put an anchor in there, Indiana, on the money line to get it done.”
38-3 — Indiana beat Alabama 38-3 in the CFP quarterfinal (Rose Bowl); Indiana ML wins (ESPN box score).
“I'm going with the Oregon money line.”
23-0 — Oregon shut out Texas Tech 23-0 in the CFP quarterfinal (Orange Bowl); Oregon ML wins (ESPN box score).
“I going to throw Georgia in there minus six and a half against Ole Miss”
34-39 — Ole Miss upset Georgia 39-34 in the CFP quarterfinal (Sugar Bowl); Georgia lost outright, so -6.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“I will plant my flag, though, on San Francisco plus one and a half against Seattle, not only for the division. This one's for the one seed.”
3-13 — Seahawks beat 49ers 13-3; San Francisco lost by 10, well outside the +1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I have to take the Bucs minus 2.5 here.”
16-14 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 16-14, a 2-point margin that falls short of the -2.5 spread needed (ESPN box score).
“But my favorite bet is the Bengals against the Browns. I think the Bengals blow the doors off the Browns. Browns are a simple team, people. They're the least profitable road team over the past three years, the most profitable home team. Their defense doesn't play the same on the road. It's like Garrett, once he gets his sack, okay, good night. But this Bengals offense is rolling. Their offensive line is playing better. Mims, Fairchild are playing better. You got all your healthy pieces. burrow's gonna play the offense is rolling right now so they're gonna put up their points at home free my boy free joe burrow from hell can the browns match no i don't think fannin's gonna play fannin their whole offense luckily he played enough he played a quarter last week and caught a 50 touchdown pass because after that the Browns did nothing Njoku hurt Fannin hurt How are they going to keep up here? Additionally, I think the Bengals are a little undervalued right now because their defense is playing much, much better. Over the past six weeks, number one in EPA per play, you might say, ah, who have they played, blah, blah, blah. They played the Ravens twice, the Pats, the Bills, the Dolphins, and someone else is probably bad. But that's not like a stretch of just the worst offenses in the NFL. So you might ask why. Why is it? Well, there's a number of reasons. Over the first 10 weeks, they were historically bad. I'm not saying they're a good defense right now, but they're just like maybe the 25th best defense, which is all you need with the – like you just can't be historically bad when you have this Bengals offense and you're going up against a horrendous Browns deep. But why is the Bengals' deed trending up? Why I think it's real. Well, they have two rookie linebackers who were the worst in the NFL over the first 10 weeks in Carter and Knight. They're playing legitimately better. So not great. But they were unplayable over the first 10 weeks. Now they're playing better. They also moved Dax Hill out to the outside. DJ Turner on the other side has been one of the best corners in the NFL. Hill has played amazingly locked down since he's moved to the outside because they had Jeff. what is his name uh their new slot corner who's been on the practice on the practice squad he's been with the organization for like five years he's come in played the nickel and played it pretty well it's enabled hill went out after the first 10 weeks went outside um jalen davis so now their corners are playing really well a lot rookie linebackers are playing better they changed some of their fronts slayton's playing better with these new formations against the run They're getting something from Miles Murphy finally. And then you just have Al Golden, who came in as a new coordinator with a bunch of new pieces that started to figure some things out schematically. So I do think that the Bengals' defense is legitimately improved, which they've shown over the past six weeks. And you're playing one of the worst offenses in the NFL, a defense that doesn't play the same on the road. Could see this being a little bit of an emotional letdown for the Browns, right? They had that huge win over the Steelers. I don't think they can keep up here. I think the Bengals' role.”
18-20 — Browns beat Bengals 20-18; Cincinnati lost outright, so -7 busts (ESPN box score).
“No, Hank is a happy cat. It was a Bengal sign. It could be a Jaguar sign, too. Let's just take it roll. Spray paint the cat like a Bengal. Come on. Should we have a cat parlay this week? You guys like the Bucs. I might do this on my own. I might be in on the Lions, dude. I did. I'd like the Lions. I haven't completely dug into that one. I did bet the Jags already. So we could definitely. I saw that pop in from you this morning on the app. We could definitely do that. Yeah, there was an 11 and a half hanging out there. I don't think this line is going to tilt closer to 13. So that was more of a number play.”
7-41 — Jaguars routed Titans 41-7, a 34-point margin that easily covers -11.5 (ESPN box score).
“This one's available on DraftKings right now, plus three and a half on the Carolina Panthers. I'm just going to go ahead and plant my flag on that now.”
16-14 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 16-14; Carolina lost by only 2, covering the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'm on the Saints I just don't get the vibe that they are wanting to tank The Titans got super lucky last week The Gardner Minshew went down Got a good morale victory. I see them probably rolling over going belly up here. I've been really impressed by Tyler Shuck. And I think that they want to get him some reps, get him some snaps, let him grow a little bit. Because the progress that I've seen from him the last couple of weeks has been awesome. I was originally in the boat. The Saints probably would be going to the draft looking for a quarterback. I don't think they have to at this point. and I think Kellen Moore is a good coach should have been a head coach sooner probably gonna probably gonna take this game as a chance to get another win under their belt I don't really have faith in the Titans they had their rah-rah you know good win last week go Saints yeah I just think that uh New Orleans is probably peaking out right now and this feels like a really good time to fade them I know the Titans are coming off of a win but that wasn't so much of a win as it was a meltdown of competition. The Saints have won three games in a row, and now they go on the road. It just feels like a major letdown. This feels like one of those games, just take the dog. Whoever would be the underdog would be the team that I would like. I don't hate it. I'm definitely going to add the Titans to a teaser leg. I just haven't decided who else I'm going to pair them with yet, but the Titans have already been nominated, so we can both end up winning this. I'm going to take this up to eight and a half, and you're going to lay the two and a half with the Saints.”
34-26 — Saints beat Titans 34-26; the 8-point margin covers the -2.5 spread. Bet won.
“So, yeah, we're taking the Chiefs plus 13.”
20-13 — Broncos beat Chiefs 20-13 on Dec 25, 2025 (Christmas Day); Kansas City's 7-point loss covers the +13 spread. Bet won.
“I told you guys I was going to sell you on the Dolphins plus five and a half.”
20-17 — Dolphins beat Buccaneers 20-17; the 3-point margin covers the +5.5 spread. Bet won.
“I like the Falcons, plus 8.5.”
27-24 — Falcons beat Rams 27-24; Atlanta's outright win comfortably covers the +8.5 spread. Bet won.
“But I'm going to go with Colby Parkinson anytime touchdown.”
Colby Parkinson had 6 catches for 53 yards but no touchdown against the Falcons; the Rams' TDs went to Terrance Ferguson and Puka Nacua. Bet lost. (Parkinson: 6 rec, 53 yds, 0 TD)
“yeah i'm gonna go browns as well but i i don't hate either of them so browns all right all right so we got brown points though not money line i'm a coward yeah we're taking the points i mean especially in the game of total of uh that is trending towards like 31 um haven who would you have voted for cleveland but i want to buy to four is it not four anymore it's three and a half yeah draft kings is allowing the slider to four and a half so we're gonna put four and a half in the parlay. Okay, good. That's the number I bet early in the week, so.”
13-6 — Browns beat Steelers 13-6; Cleveland's outright win covers the +4.5 spread. Bet won.
“I'm nominating the Raiders money line. I took them early in the week getting plus money.”
34-10 — Giants beat Raiders 34-10; the Las Vegas moneyline busts. Bet lost.
“So I'm going to give you guys the Lions minus six just because must win game.”
23-10 — Vikings beat Lions 23-10; Detroit lost outright, failing to cover -6. Bet lost.
“i already bet the panthers plus seven and a half”
27-10 — Seahawks beat Panthers 27-10; Carolina's 17-point loss doesn't cover the +7.5 spread. Bet lost.
“my favorite player prop on the planet. And that is Philip Rivers under half a rushing yard minus one 70.”
Philip Rivers had 0 rushing attempts and 0 rushing yards against the 49ers, under the 0.5-yard line. Bet won. (Rivers: 0 carries, 0 rush yds)
“under half rushing yard for old man philip rivers over 98 and a half rushing yards for jonathan taylor and the 49ers minus five plus 425 over on draft kings”
In the 49ers-Colts game, Philip Rivers had 0 rushing yards (under 0.5, won) and the 49ers won 48-27 (covers -5, won), but Jonathan Taylor had only 46 rushing yards (under 98.5, lost); one leg lost, so the parlay busts. Bet lost.
“I played the seahawks early cheap money line”
38-37 — Seahawks beat Rams 38-37 in OT; the Seattle moneyline hits. Bet won.
“I'm gonna go with Rivers under Hattie. For rushing yard, minus 185, the guy can't move.”
Philip Rivers had 0 rushing attempts and 0 rushing yards against the 49ers, under any positive rushing-yards line. Bet won. (Rivers: 0 carries, 0 rush yds; 23/35, 277 pass yds, 2 pass TD, 1 INT)
“Uh, so I'm going to go Taylor longest rush over 17 and a half yards. I think he breaks a couple here.”
Jonathan Taylor's longest rush was 7 yards (16 carries, 46 yards total) vs the 49ers, well under the 17.5-yard line. Bet lost. (Taylor: 16 car, 46 rush yds, longest rush 7 yds)
“Points or Moneyline? Moneyline? We're going Moneyline. we're going money line favorites with the other two i think i think we should go money they've covered they've covered six games this year after the worst ats year in nfl history they've covered their last two against teams under 500 which you know just to let you know that is the chiefs a touchdown's a lot can we do the points touchdown titans ravens cowboys six to one at draft kings gorgeous let's ride that right there you're two kings and a queen parlay”
Titans beat Chiefs 26-9 (Titans ML won), but Patriots beat Ravens 28-24 (Ravens ML lost) and Chargers beat Cowboys 34-17 (Cowboys ML lost); the parlay needs all three legs, so it busts. Bet lost.
“Texans by the way I did log that bet on action at 12 to 1 to win the Super Bowl love what I'm seeing from them”
The Seattle Seahawks beat the New England Patriots 29-13 in Super Bowl LX on Feb 8, 2026; the Houston Texans did not win the Super Bowl. Bet lost.
“good for him thursday night football rams at seahawks seattle minus one and a half the total sitting at 44 and a half Thursday night football. The Seahawks have flipped the favorites after being one point dogs at the open. The winner takes control of the NFC West. Seahawks probably would have won the last game that these two teams met. If Sam Darnold didn't have a complete and utter meltdown, he was seeing ghosts again. And while they are coming off that win against Indianapolis, as we mentioned, not all that impressive, they failed to get to the end zone and barely escaped the old man strength of Philip Rivers. Seattle kicked six field goals to barely beat the Colts. I find myself leaning Seattle though Talk by low even though they won the game How does anybody have confidence in the Seattle Seahawks Yet I still look at my janky power ratings and I got these two teams side by side I think the home team that already lost in the divisional matchup prior that actually outplayed the Rams I think Seattle's the right side here.”
38-37 — Seahawks beat the Rams 38-37 in OT; Seattle's margin of victory was only 1 point, short of the -1.5 spread. Bet lost.
“let's each make a pick so that we can sit back watch sling tv and enjoy this game the way that it is meant to be enjoyed mike get us started who do you like what do you like this number is yo-yoed a little bit it's settling in at bamalan a point and a half at about even money i'm comfortable with that they're gonna close as the first road favorite in the 12 team college football playoff”
34-24 — Alabama beat Oklahoma 34-24 in the CFP first round, a 10-point margin that covers the -1.5 spread. Bet won.
“But one thing I do like, and this will be my play, is a John Mateer anytime touchdown at plus 115.”
John Mateer scored a rushing touchdown for Alabama against Oklahoma (19 carries, 15 yards, 1 rush TD), so his anytime-TD prop hit. Bet won. (Mateer: 19 car, 15 rush yds, 1 rush TD; 26/41, 307 pass yds, 2 pass TD, 1 INT)
“Broncos minus three is where I'll plant my flag.”
34-20 — Jaguars beat Broncos 34-20; Denver lost outright and failed to cover -3. Bet lost.
“And we know the Browns are a different animal at home The seat this season alone four and two against the spread in Cleveland one and six against the spread anywhere else Buffalo also off of the game of their lives They had to expend a lot of energy emotionally, physically. They're down 21 against their fiercest rival currently in the AFC East. It is a letdown spot for Buffalo against the defense that we can trust and have throughout the season when they are at home. So give me the brownies and a bad quarterback in Shador Sanders at plus 10.”
23-20 — Bills beat Browns 23-20; Cleveland's 3-point loss comfortably covers the +10 spread. Bet won.
“Let's get to our DraftKings Monday Night Football Fast Pass Parlay before we settle in for Cowboys Vikings tonight. We're talking Dolphins, Steelers. Steelers minus three at home total sitting at 42 and a half. My nomination is going to be for a backup running back for the Miami Dolphins. I'm going Jaylen Wright over 17 and a half rushing yards. A-chan has been on the injury report all week. He is going to play, it looks like, but he's dealing with a rib injury. That can pop up at any time, and I think they're going to give the Steelers a nice, steady dose of the ground game either way. No chance they put this game into Tua's hands. It's going to be 19 degrees, 24 carries for Jaylen Wright last week. He's clearly taken over the backup role and the dolphins are tied for the most rush attempts per game in the NFL over the last four weeks. So I'm going to go over 17 and a half. I can be talked into an anytime touchdown for him, which is three to one, but I'm going to nominate for the parlay over 17 and a half rushing yards for the backup running back. Kendra off to you. You stole my thunder. I just had a chance for an anytime minus one Oh five, because with the injury, this was the best price we were going to probably get him at for the foreseeable future unless something insane happens so that's why i went with that and plus when it's a parlay i don't mind taking like a one minus 105 situation for a prop just because you're obviously adding other things but it's just so as someone who lives in the northeast it is cold as hell outside they're gonna run the ball into the ground it doesn't matter who it's gonna be but i'm just gonna go with the safest option because it's a parlay. Yeah, and I think we can very much get home on both of these. There's no reason why. I mean, we're kind of leaning into the same thought process. Same thought process. Yeah, just the dolphins running the hell out of the football. All right, Evan, add a leg for us. I'm going to slam this together on the app. I was going to do Ollie Gordon, but you kind of stole the thunder of the prospect of the pick. and in the cold Ollie Gordon touchdown kind of felt right but we go separate Adam Thielen touchdown will be what we add to this parlay Rodgers a week of extra practice He loves his tight ends so trying to choose between his three tight ends felt a little difficult. If I had to choose one, it'd probably be Fryermuth. I saw that Washington cleared concussion protocol, but who the heck knows. So Adam Thielen, ATD. Let's roll. All right. Adam Thielen, by the way, adds some nice wiggle room for us here on the parlay. He's plus 800 to score a touchdown. So we've got, I put Jaylen Wright at 15 plus in there, especially since we're taking the long shot on the touchdown. Adam Thielen, anytime touchdown. Devon H. And anytime touchdown. Your DraftKings fast pass parlay, 23 to 1 over on DraftKings, where the crown is yours. that's going to do it the luckier we get with these i fear listen this this bet is very much being placed this is not just a content thing”
PIT 28, MIA 15 — In Pittsburgh's 28-15 Week 15 win over Miami, Jaylen Wright rushed for only 2 yards (well under 15+), and neither Adam Thielen nor De'Von Achane scored a touchdown, so all three parlay legs lost (ESPN box score). (Jaylen Wright: 2 rush yds; Adam Thielen: 0 TD; De'Von Achane: 0 TD (12 car 60 yds, 6 rec 67 yds))
“Yeah, I'll be on the Packers. Funny story about the action that we got. One of our college basketball contributors, Tanner, I was in the shower. And during football, I had to shower my phone in case the line moves. So I just have my phone out and showering. And I get a notification. It says Green Bay minus 115. Tanner logs it. And I'm like, oh my God, because I'm waiting for a cheap money line. It could be a lower scoring game. Packers have some kicker issues. I do think it's a good matchup for them schematically. They play a lot of zone. Knicks really struggles against zone. Broncos play out a single high. I think Love can hit some explosive passes. And yeah, the Broncos have been extremely lucky. I think the Packers are sending, you know me, I'm team Packers from since the beginning of the year and will be until they're eliminated. um so i ran i started pulling up the board to look for the but it was green bay and i didn't even see the basketball it was the uh phoenix it was green bay basketball minus 115 money line i've been waiting for like a minus 115 minus 120 money line all week and then i saw that and i got excited but uh yeah i like the packers here though”
DEN 34, GB 26 — The Broncos beat the Packers 34-26 in Week 15 (Dec 14, 2025), so Green Bay's moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“yeah it's five and a half of draft kings that's fine uh anything under six i like the chiefs against the chargers”
LAC 16, KC 13 — The Chargers beat the Chiefs 16-13 in Week 15 (Dec 14, 2025); Kansas City lost outright, so -5.5 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“that's a coin flippish game so i'm gonna vote for the bills i like the bills i bet the bills”
BUF 35, NE 31 — The Bills rallied to beat the Patriots 35-31 in Week 15 (Dec 14, 2025), winning outright on the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“if this is at five and a half before the game, I'll bet the Minnesota Vikings. So if we want to throw them in the parlay, that would be my other nomination. Yeah. By the way, since week four, when the chargers didn't have tackles left EPA per play chiefs offense, number five chargers 24. I, yeah, I liked the Vikings. I played them. So I'm in on this. At Giraffe Kings right now, yeah, five and a half is the best we can do.”
MIN 34, DAL 26 — The Vikings beat the Cowboys 34-26 in Week 15 (Dec 14, 2025); Minnesota won by 8, covering +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“bills but i have gotten to the window on josh allen anytime touchdown for a lot of the reasons that stucky just mentioned”
Josh Allen threw 3 passing touchdowns but recorded zero rushing or receiving touchdowns in Buffalo's 35-31 Week 15 win over New England, so his anytime-TD prop lost (ESPN box score). (Josh Allen: 0 rushing TD, 0 receiving TD (11 car, 48 yds rushing; 3 passing TD))
“So originally I was, like I said, going to look the Jonathan Taylor route here, but I am going to instead look at the Jets defense. I know that they've had a hard time getting interceptions this season. Trevor Lawrence will throw them. He will throw them, especially if they have a lead. It's plus 111 right now for him to throw an interception.”
Trevor Lawrence threw zero interceptions (20/32, 330 yds, 5 TD) in Jacksonville's 48-20 Week 15 rout of the Jets, so the interception prop lost (ESPN box score). (Trevor Lawrence: 0 INT (20/32, 330 yds, 5 TD))
“but we can buy the Vikings a six and a half So go Vikings plus six and a half We have Bill money line and Browns plus seven and a half Last week we hit it was plus 575 This is a little lower, plus 515 at DraftKings. I like that. Yep, it is in there. All right, Browns plus seven and a half. Bill's money line, Vikings plus six and a half at plus 514 over on DraftKings.”
Parlay needs all three legs: Cleveland lost outright 31-3 to Chicago (Browns +7.5 lost), Buffalo beat New England 35-31 (Bills ML won), and Minnesota beat Dallas 34-26 (Vikings +6.5 won); the Browns leg busted the parlay (ESPN box scores).
“If it does and they win the division I would rather have much more upside than whatever it is plus 180 The bet I placed yesterday is Bengals 15 at DraftKings to win the division They are not dead Hear me out. So if they beat Baltimore this week, so say Lamar's still not healthy. Now Higgins has a concussion, which doesn't help. But, I mean, the Bengals just beat the Ravens without Higgins. So if the Bengals beat the Ravens, now the Bengals have to win out. Like, I mean, what's their record? Four and nine. So you might say, all right, they're going to finish eight and nine and win the division. Every year or two, we get one of these divisions or an eight and nine. AFC South every single year. AFC South every single season since the dawn of time. Except for this year, that gargantuan division. So if the Bengals beat the Ravens, their remaining games this week, their remaining games are the Dolphins and then the Cardinals and Browns at home. Like, I'm putting them at eight and nine. Does that mean they are? but no but they have a good shot to get date night if they win this week the steelers who i still don't think are any good they have they're they have miami they're a three-point favorite at home against miami this week miami's playing better but even if we give them that win then they're at detroit they're at cleveland i mean rogers going up against that defensive line we know cleveland's going to show up for that game wanting to end their season and then they have the ravens at home. So is there a chance that the Steelers go 1-3? I mean, I wouldn't be shocked if they went 0-4. Now, granted, they could go 3-1. But with that schedule, like, I could see the Ravens playing the Steelers on the last week and spoiling their party. And that's their season. The Steelers have done it with the Ravens before. So let's say the Steelers finish 8-9. Well, the Ravens, now they're six and seven if they lose this whole hypothesis is based on the bangles winning this week so the the ravens would lose to the bangles they would fall to six and eight so in order to get to eight and nine they would need to go two and one over the remaining games they're at their home against the pats at the packers and then at the steelers that is not easy But if there a chance that they could get to 8 say they lose at the Packers they beat the Pats then they need to win at the Steelers They do that and there a big tiebreaker or there tiebreakers with the Bengals and the Ravens beat the Steelers The Bengals are going to win the tiebreaker at 8-9. It feels like that Charlie Day meme where he's got the whiteboard with all the markers, and he's like... Yeah, there's tiebreaker scenarios where the Bengals beat the Steelers. The Bengals have the easiest schedule overall. So I think they're worth a flyer. Just some small catchage, 15-1, because if they win this weekend,”
The Bengals finished the 2025 regular season 6-11 and did not win the AFC North; the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) won the division (ESPN team schedules).
“and then the other thing in regards to the Chiefs, I think it is worth taking a shot on the Chiefs right now to make the playoffs. So, the Chiefs, I played it yesterday. Now, the price got a little better because the price would have improved if the Chargers lost. And I thought that was a coin flip game. And I wanted to get ahead of it.”
The Chiefs finished the 2025 regular season 6-11 and did not make the playoffs (ESPN team schedule).
“I'm going to lay it with the San Francisco 49ers. Niners off a bye, minus 12.5 against the Tennessee Titans off of a win.”
SF 37, TEN 24 — The 49ers beat the Titans 37-24 in Week 15 (Dec 14, 2025); San Francisco won by 13, covering the -12.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I mean, I'm not playing the Titans, but I'll play my flag. You know what? I'm going to go stick the variable against the spreading trends where you can't see them. I don't care. Give me Josh Allen, Moneyline, basically a pick against the Patriots. I think the Bills get their revenge. The Patriots' run D is not the same without Milton Williams. It's been leaking oil. I think the Bills can attack them on the ground now, and then they can attack their linebackers through the air. I think Spencer Brown should be back. They got Kincaid back. And I think the Patriots are just at the top of their market price. I mean, you want to talk about a team. Here's who the Patriots, the quarterbacks they've beat since they beat the Bills. It's bad. One of them is starting right now. So they beat Jackson Dart, Joe Flacco by six, Justin Fields, Baker Mayfield, who's playing about as bad as any quarterback in the league, Pennix by one at home. Dylan Gabriel, Cam Ward, and Spencer Rattler. Come on. I think this defense can be attacked. I think Allen gets his revenge. The key thing is, though, is that the Patriots' run D is not the same right now. I think Tonga's going to be back, which helps a little bit. Without Mel Williams, though, that run defense has not been the same. Give me Josh Allen. Screw the Rabil against the spread off of by trends. Bills get it done on the road.”
BUF 35, NE 31 — The Bills rallied to beat the Patriots 35-31 in Week 15 (Dec 14, 2025), winning outright on the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“And then I am going to go with Justin Herbert as well. I'm going to go under 20 and a half completions. At minus 124.”
LAC 22, PHI 19 — Justin Herbert completed 12 of 26 passes (139 yds) in the Chargers' 22-19 OT win over the Eagles; 12 is under 20.5, the under wins (ESPN box score). (Justin Herbert: 12/26 completions)
“distraction time let's do it this is a distraction distracted i'm not distracted i want it on the action the number one a grade in the luck rankings per nick giffen the las vegas raiders plus seven and a half hosting the Denver Broncos. All luck sides from week 13 to the Super Bowl, 68% cover rate. Action or distraction, Stucky, on betting the stinky Las Vegas Raiders? Action. I did it already. It's off. It's terrible. I'm not looking forward to it. I'm dreading it. That offensive line, Geno Smith, it's bad. But I make it under a touchdown. It is a luck side. I mean, the Broncos, they've played six games away from home this year, and they have yet to win a game by more than four. And you're talking the games, you know, they played the Jets when the Jets had negative 10 passing hours. These two teams played recently in Denver. The final score was 10-7. The Raiders were on a short week. We're coming off an overtime game, and their defense is on the field for 85 plays. Well, now it's the second straight road game for the Broncos. Their defense is on the field for 95, 100 plays, including penalties. their pressure rate is kind of cratered of late i get it the offensive line for the raiders might just ruin this game but it's still bo nicks he's still inaccurate i gotta take the points here um”
DEN 24, LV 17 — Broncos beat the Raiders 24-17; Las Vegas lost by 7, covering +7.5 (ESPN).
“Raiders plus seven and a half Texans plus three and a half Jags plus one and a half Two Kings and a Queen parlay plus 581 over on DraftKings”
Parlay cashes: Raiders lost by 7 to Denver, covering +7.5; Texans won outright 20-10 over Kansas City, covering +3.5; Jaguars won outright 36-19 over Indianapolis, covering +1.5 (ESPN).
“i'll get us started i'm gonna go with the baltimore ravens minus five and a half against the pittsburgh stealers i think the lure around this rivalry is helping to drive the price down”
PIT 27, BAL 22 — Steelers beat the Ravens 27-22; Baltimore lost outright, busting -5.5 (ESPN).
“I'm going to plant my flag on the Bengals. When I saw this number at plus six, I was absolutely shook. Didn't believe it. I thought our website was off. It is not.”
BUF 39, CIN 34 — Bills beat the Bengals 39-34; Cincinnati lost by 5, covering +6 (ESPN).
“I just think this line is too high. I think the Falcons will be in this game at home. So give me over a touchdown with Atlanta, a gross Falcons dog bet after losing to the jets. This is very, you want to bet the Jags is, I mean the Falcons is dogs. You don't never want to bet them as favorites. Like this is going on for years and for what it's worth, the just like, I love fading teams off of shutout wins. This isn't gospel, but road teams off of a home shutout. Look at this team. They just won 26-0. Road teams off a home shutout over the past 25 years, 17-35-1 against the spread, 32.7%. The Falcons lost the game they should have won last week. Seahawks benefited from facing Rosmer. Darnold kind of trending down a bit. defenses have tape on this offense or they're adjusting a bit better. So yeah, I'll take the seven. I think this line's too high. Our play at the flag games presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours. Kendra is on the Bengals plus six. Stucky on the Falcons plus seven and a half.”
SEA 37, ATL 9 — Seahawks blew out the Falcons 37-9; Atlanta lost by 28, busting +7.5 (ESPN).
“Yeah, I bet the commanders. Although I've been coldest better in America, so I would maybe that means to bet Denver. But I don know I just think the line is a little too high This is everything that I bet in the NFL buy low sell high I mean I think we at the peak of the market on the Broncos They've won, what, eight straight? They haven't won a game by more than three points on the road or even away from home if you include the Jets, by more than four points all year. You can include the Jets when they threw for negative 10 passing yards with Justin Fields. And I think we're probably close to the bottom of the market on the Commanders. they've they're on an extended losing streak the one thing i'm counting on i mean mariotta is still a functional backup you got mcclorn back sertana's back which isn't which is which does give a boost to the denver defense obviously you can shut down one side of the field it gives them ultimate flexibility but i'm counting on the commander's defense just looking more professional under with dan quinn calling the place i think that they looked they did a decent job against miami now you could say it's Miami that's fair but just structurally communication wise they look better so coming out of the bye it's this is still Bo Nix this is he's still been you know a bottom three quarterback and success rate over the first three quarters a team that struggles to build margin a team that struggles to build margin against really bad teams and the Jets the Raiders at home you might have some weather here I haven't seen an updated weather forecast but um that that could serve as a neutralizer, but yeah, I took the six points. Probably will regret it, but I did bet that.”
DEN 27, WAS 26 — Broncos beat the Commanders 27-26 in OT; Washington lost by 1, covering +6 (ESPN).
“DraftKings Monday Night Football Fast Pass Parlay before we settle in for the night game or cleaning our apartment or cleaning out the refrigerator or whatever it is you're doing tonight. I guess we need to throw a Giants plus seven and a half in there because that one's for Stucky. That was part of our parlay, and we unfortunately did not get a chance to see if that would be the one that cashed it for us. So we get two thumbs up on that, Stucky, before Kendra and I add to the mix. yeah it's a seven and a half i think the giants are worth a look now it's you you have dark coming back from concussion didn't see it didn't see it with stroud today but historically you do see a bit of a dip but you i think the the key here is the offensive line injuries for the patriots they don't have great depth they're going up against the giants defensive line that could make a difference uh so yeah that from a side perspective that's the only way i could look So we all tend to be in a little bit of agreement here as far as the Giants should be able to give the Patriots a fight here. Giants plus seven and a half. I'm going to throw Jackson Dart anytime touchdown in there at plus three twenty five straight games that he's played with a rushing touchdown. Seven on the season. Feel pretty good about that. If the Giants play well, it's because he's still running around and being himself. I like him to get into the end zone. What about you, Kendra? Kravitz and I were filling out our notes at the exact same time, and I was going to fill that out as my pick for tonight, but then I saw his rushing yard total is 29.5. I love that. I think he's going to be on the run quite a bit tomorrow night. He also is on the run just in general. I feel like most weeks this feels low to me. I like the 29.5 over. So kind of correlated. All correlated. Yeah, very much so. But because I think that, yeah, darts, The only thing I would worry about is if Dart coming back from a concussion, he doesn't run as much or they – There's no way that he feels that way, though. They're going to need him to use his legs. Yeah, when he's near the goal line, that's one of their most effective plays is him using his legs. Yeah. He's also just insane. We get a little bit of a discount on him I think for that exact reason for that paranoia because his rushing yard number i believe has sat more in the mid 40s than at 29 and a half so i think that is very much baked in here yeah the number on that by the way plus 800 for the giants plus seven and a half Jackson dart, anytime touchdown and Jackson dart to record at least 30 rushing yards. You can throw that in over at draft Kings.”
Parlay busts: Giants lost 33-15 to New England (needed +7.5); Jaxson Dart had no rushing/receiving TD (his lone TD was a pass to Slayton); Dart rushed for only 20 yards, under the 29.5 line (ESPN box score).
“it's a seven and a half i think the giants are worth a look”
NE 33, NYG 15 — Patriots beat the Giants 33-15; New York lost by 18, busting +7.5 (ESPN).
“I'm going to throw Jackson Dart anytime touchdown in there at plus three twenty five”
Jaxson Dart did not score a rushing or receiving touchdown in the Giants' 33-15 loss to New England; his only TD involvement was a passing TD to Darius Slayton (ESPN box score). (Jaxson Dart: 0 rushing/receiving TD (4 car, 20 rush yds))
“Kravitz and I were filling out our notes at the exact same time, and I was going to fill that out as my pick for tonight, but then I saw his rushing yard total is 29.5. I love that. I think he's going to be on the run quite a bit tomorrow night. He also is on the run just in general. I feel like most weeks this feels low to me. I like the 29.5 over.”
NE 33, NYG 15 — Jaxson Dart rushed 4 times for 20 yards in the Giants' 33-15 loss to New England, under the 29.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Jaxson Dart: 20 rushing yards)
“But I guess I'll plant my flag on the Indianapolis Colts, my Daniel Jones, minus four and a half, my pumpkin.”
HOU 20, IND 16 — Texans beat the Colts 20-16; Colts lost outright, busting the -4.5 spread (ESPN).
“I like the under at 52 and a half.”
KC 28, DAL 31 — Cowboys beat the Chiefs 31-28 (59 combined points), busting the Under 52.5 (ESPN).
“I'll take the Bengals on Thanksgiving plus the seven.”
CIN 32, BAL 14 — Bengals beat the Ravens 32-14, winning outright and covering +7 (ESPN).
“I'm all over the Eagles for what it's worth, if anybody cares. I think it's a great spot for them. I think that the Bears are fake as hell. They've been getting super lucky. I know I talked a lot of shit about the Eagles on Sunday, but I think it's a good bounce-back spot for them. They're the better team. If you're going to sit here and talk about luck, I'm going to go with the better roster. I'm going to go with the coach who's proven himself, and I think that that's all I need to know for this game. Like, you can talk about luck all you want, But I don't think that the Bears are a good team. I think that they're a lucky team. I think both are to a degree, but the Eagles at least have the track record of actually being a Super Bowl winner. And we have not seen that from Chicago. They are the horseshoe. in the ass team of the year. And it's like every week. And it's not going in like where you like put one in at a time. Like both ends are going up your ass at the same time. You know, if we're talking to teachers. The only thing I would push back onto that, I don't hate the Eagles this week because I just hate needing that team to win by margin. I mean. I know. That's the part that I hate too because I don't know. They go at half every week without scoring. I literally said that verbatim on Sunday's show because I said that we've talked all season long about how it went from a quarter where they do nothing to a quarter and a half where they do nothing to a half where they do nothing on both sides of the ball i agree that that's the part that scares me needing a touchdown from them but i think they have to beat up on the bears after the embarrassment that they had this weekend i think the eagles could be a good teaser piece take them down to one and don't ask them to cover seven eagles and packers decent teaser”
CHI 24, PHI 15 — Bears beat the Eagles 24-15; Eagles lost outright, busting -7 (ESPN).
“I did put Lions minus three in the app earlier this week.”
GB 31, DET 24 — Packers beat the Lions 31-24; Lions lost outright, busting -3 (ESPN).
“so the official plays Rams minus nine and a half Giants plus seven and a half Colts minus four and a half plus 525 two kings and a queen parlay”
Parlay busts: Rams lost outright 31-28 to Carolina (needed -9.5); Giants lost 33-15 to New England (needed +7.5, missed by 10.5); Colts lost outright 20-16 to Houston (needed +4.5) (ESPN).
“things I bring to the table so I um I was actually gonna go Tett McMillan myself over four and a half receptions is this is this wise on I guess in some ways this is a correlated parlay if we were to go with Tett McMillan over four and a half catches Tett McMillan over like the receptions 63 and a half yards and a Bryce Young interception we're basically saying Young's gonna be airing it out throughout the course of the night. His number one guy is going to get targets, and he's also going to give the ball to the opposition. Are we in on the Bryce to Tet to the San Francisco 49ers parlay fast pass Monday night football action? Let me see if I can get a quick price on that. Terrible, terrible pass defense, so Bryce should just try his best, and then at some point he'll make a mistake. So, you know, ship it. Let's go. got that now at plus 260 over on draft kings the crown is yours tett mcmillan's over 63 and a half receiving yards over four and a half receptions and bryce young to throw an int”
Parlay busts: Tetairoa McMillan finished with 2 receptions for 35 yards (under both 63.5 yards and 4.5 receptions); Bryce Young threw 2 interceptions (won leg) in San Francisco's 20-9 win over Carolina (ESPN box score). (McMillan 2 rec, 35 yds; Young 2 INT)
“So, yeah, let's go with Vegas minus three and a half. That's my vote.”
LV 10, CLE 24 — Cleveland beat Las Vegas 24-10; the Raiders (-3.5) lost outright, failing to cover (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go in Las Vegas Raiders minus three and a half.”
LV 10, CLE 24 — Cleveland beat Las Vegas 24-10; the Raiders (-3.5) lost outright, failing to cover (ESPN box score).
“the titans are worse so i like the saints to get it done and then the cowboys although we need a three and a half there we could buy it um for like minus 120 minus 125 i think at draft kings i played this earlier in the week at a better number but still even at a more expensive three and a half that that's okay for me i mean this eagles offense can't get margin on anybody they are who they are at this point they have seven seven of their eight wins this year by one possession there's seven and one and one possession games cowboys recent additions on defense will help with their run d play a lot of zone on the back end that's what you want to do against hurts the eagles can't really throw it anyway and i trust this cowboys offense to score i know the eagles defense really improving but um i think this is like a field goal game either way”
DAL 24, PHI 21 — Dallas beat Philadelphia 24-21; the Cowboys (+3.5) won outright, covering the spread (ESPN box score).
“I am trading in my sad cats for some different cats here as far as Cincinnati goes I might go broke fading the Patriots this year but I going to go back for some more pain I already bet this This number was plus eight and a half just a couple of days ago And I wanted in before dipped any further.”
CIN 20, NE 26 — New England beat Cincinnati 26-20; the Bengals (+8.5) lost by only 6, covering the spread (ESPN box score).
“I did bet Tee Higgins anytime touchdown.”
Tee Higgins finished with 5 receptions for 31 yards and 0 touchdowns; Cincinnati's TDs came from Mitchell Tinsley (offense) and Geno Stone (pick-six) in the 26-20 loss to New England (ESPN box score). (Higgins 5 rec, 31 yds, 0 TD)
“Yeah, Raiders money line, Bengals money line, Cowboys plus three and a half, plus 810 on DraftKings.”
Parlay busts: Raiders ML lost (Cleveland 24, Las Vegas 10); Bengals ML lost (New England 26, Cincinnati 20); Cowboys +3.5 won (Dallas 24, Philadelphia 21) — two of three legs lost (ESPN box scores).
“I think the Saints are the side. Cousins has lost six in a row against the spread as a starter. So I think you guys are spot on on your read. I wish that this spread did not flip. The Saints were plus one and a half at open. they're now minus one and a half this would be i got some two and a half so on dk right now it's minus one and a half but yeah that's uh i guess if you want the saints you got to get in on it now”
ATL 24, NO 10 — Atlanta beat New Orleans 24-10; the Saints (+2.5) lost outright by 14, failing to cover (ESPN box score).
“Cardinals up to eight and a half Niners down to one against the Panthers That be my teaser of the week”
Both teaser legs cashed: Arizona (+8.5) lost 27-24 in OT to Jacksonville, covering by 5.5 points, and San Francisco (-1) beat Carolina 20-9, covering by 10 (ESPN box scores).
“I'm going to go Cowboys plus three and a half”
DAL 24, PHI 21 — Dallas beat Philadelphia 24-21; the Cowboys (+3.5) won outright, covering the spread (ESPN box score).
“Cowboys plus three and a half. I like that. I might end up on that myself. You talked me into it. So no pushback on that one. I am going to go with the Kansas City Chiefs. Minus three. They fucked us last week. I would have been up seven plus units last week if the Chiefs had just won. That's all I needed was for them to win the game, and they couldn't do it. but can't hold grudges in this betting life.”
KC 23, IND 20 — Kansas City beat Indianapolis 23-20 in OT, winning by exactly 3; the Chiefs (-3) pushed against the spread (ESPN box score).
“I'm going Bowers anytime plus 105. Now that Jacoby's gone, he's all that offense has other than Gentry.”
Brock Bowers finished with 7 receptions for 72 yards and 0 touchdowns; Raiders' lone TD came from Tre Tucker in the 33-16 Monday-night loss to Dallas (ESPN box score). (Bowers 7 rec, 72 yds, 0 TD)
“Lockett, touchdown, I mean his snap count's just gone up the last two weeks [33:16] He's only out there to catch passes [33:18] And Pete loves him [33:19] So Lockett, touchdown”
Tyler Lockett finished with 3 receptions for 33 yards and 0 touchdowns in the Raiders' 33-16 Monday-night loss to Dallas (ESPN box score). (Lockett 3 rec, 33 yds, 0 TD)
“Evan, are you on anything tonight? I'm just like Amun-Ra. No Laporte out there. So touchdowns.”
Amon-Ra St. Brown finished with 2 receptions for 42 yards and 0 touchdowns; Jameson Williams scored Detroit's only TD in the Lions' 16-9 loss at Philadelphia (ESPN box score). (St. Brown 2 rec, 42 yds, 0 TD)
“So I sitting on a pretty bad number here at two and a half on Seattle But I still like Seattle in this game just looking at it opinion wise”
19-21 — Seattle Seahawks lost to Los Angeles Rams 19-21 (margin -2); Seahawks +2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“One of the bets that I made this week was a sprinkle on a Trey McBride anytime touchdown.”
Trey McBride caught a touchdown (10 rec, 115 yds, 1 TD) in Arizona's 22-41 loss at San Francisco (ESPN box score); anytime-TD prop wins. (McBride 10 rec, 115 yds, 1 TD)
“Kendra, tomorrow is National Pickle Day, So no better time than right now to ask you, what is your week 11 pickle prop? What prop has you in a pickle? Okay, we're in a pickle now. I'm really in a pickle now. All right, look, we're in a pickle again. I love pickles. Pat Friarmuth plus 240. The Bengals are the worst team in the NFL against the tight end this year, but he hasn't been finding the end zone the way that I personally expected him to and probably a lot of other people. But he had two touchdowns in this matchup prior in this season. I am curious if they're going to find a way to shut him down because obviously it could be a Johnny Smith game. He gave them a hard time last time these two teams played each other. The other thing I will note, though, I was doing some research about this earlier. Aaron Rodgers is throwing way more touchdowns than it feels like. He's a top 10 quarterback as far as passing touchdowns go, probably even top seven. I think I want to say he was six or seven on that list. so he's throwing more than we think he would do we take the cheese he's currently plus 240 I already put it in the app do I feel great about it no but I did it because I'm not a coward and I really want to be behind my Massachusetts King Pat Fryermuth this week well and I think that that”
Pat Freiermuth had 1 catch for 19 yards and no touchdown in Pittsburgh's 34-12 win at Cincinnati (ESPN box score); anytime-TD prop loses. (Freiermuth 1 rec, 19 yds, 0 TD)
“Jags plus three Panthers plus three and a half. Chiefs money on plus four 20 at draft Kings. One King and two sad cats”
19-22; 6-35; 27-30 — Denver beat Kansas City 22-19 so Chiefs ML loses; Jacksonville beat the Chargers 35-6 (Jaguars +3 wins) and Carolina beat Atlanta 30-27 in OT (Panthers +3.5 wins), per ESPN box scores, but the Chiefs ML leg busts the parlay.
“This is my teaser of the week. I have the Green Bay Packers down to one and a half. Lions up to seven and a half.”
27-20; 9-16 — Packers beat Giants 27-20 (Packers -1.5 wins outright) and Lions lost to Eagles 9-16, covering +7.5 by half a point (ESPN box scores); both teaser legs win.
“I think I'm going to go with the Commanders. getting two and a half points against the Dolphins.”
13-16 — Washington Commanders lost to Miami Dolphins 13-16 in OT (margin -3); Commanders +2.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“I going to go with the Vikings Minus three at home”
19-17 — Chicago Bears beat Minnesota Vikings 19-17; Vikings -3 busts since Minnesota lost outright (ESPN box score).
“I am going to go with the Texans minus seven. We can get this at minus 115 versus the Tennessee Titans.”
16-13 — Houston Texans beat Tennessee Titans 16-13 (margin +3); Texans -7 busts (ESPN box score).
“so that's the parlay jalen hurts to score a touchdown aj brown to score a touchdown and luke musgrave to score a touchdown new tight end one for the green bay packers”
Eagles beat Packers 10-7 on a 39-yard Elliott field goal and a 36-yard Hurts-to-DeVonta Smith TD pass, plus a Josh Jacobs rushing TD for Green Bay (ESPN play-by-play); Hurts never scored himself, and A.J. Brown (2 rec, 13 yds) and Luke Musgrave (3 rec, 23 yds) were both held scoreless, so all three anytime-TD legs lose.
“the Lions I got it minus three they're now minus eight”
22-44 — Detroit Lions beat Washington Commanders 44-22; Lions covered -3 (ESPN box score).
“I played the Commanders, but I know you guys aren't going to vote for that. I think that line is ridiculous at eight. the lions are broken right now and have no offensive line um and can't run the ball”
22-44 — Washington Commanders lost to Detroit Lions 22-44 (margin -22); Commanders +8 busts (ESPN box score).
“so i'll nominate the cardinals now i'm waiting for a seven but i'd still bet six and a half”
22-44 — Arizona Cardinals lost to Seattle Seahawks 22-44 (margin -22); Cardinals +6.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“I like Raven's first half money line Kendra do you like it it's Kendra's pick I think that we should just go all Raven's here just to put a stucky in the corner Raven's first half is going to be one of my picks”
9-10 — Ravens trailed Vikings 9-10 at halftime (BAL 3+6, MIN 7+3) per ESPN box score linescore; Ravens 1st-half moneyline loses.
“I did put in the app Ravens money line over 41 parlayed even money. That is”
27-19 — Ravens beat Vikings 27-19 (ML wins) and combined 46 points clears Over 41 (ESPN box score); both parlay legs win.
“Mine are Bucs minus two and a half against the Pats or that same game Ravens Vikings over 49 and a half”
19-27 — Ravens beat Vikings 27-19, combined 46 points, under the 49.5 total (ESPN box score); Over 49.5 loses.
“I'll say I'm going to plant my flag on the Packers, minus two and a half at home against the Eagles.”
PHI 10-GB 7 — Eagles beat Packers 10-7 on Monday Night Football; Green Bay lost outright as a -2.5 favorite, busting the spread (ESPN box score).
“Might play at the flag game as the Philadelphia Eagles plus the two and a half.”
PHI 10-GB 7 — Eagles beat Packers 10-7; Philadelphia won by 3, covering the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'm on Jackson Smith and Jigba over 98 and a half receiving yards the number has ballooned up”
Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 8 passes for 129 receiving yards in Seattle's 38-14 win over Washington, clearing the over 98.5 yards line (ESPN box score). (Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 129 receiving yards)
“Give me Jake Ferguson over four and a half catches against the Arizona Cardinals tonight. That will be my leg of the parlay.”
Jake Ferguson caught 5 passes for 50 yards in Dallas's Monday night loss to Arizona, clearing the over 4.5 catches line (ESPN box score). (Jake Ferguson: 5 receptions, 50 yards)
“I'm going to go with the Cardinals plus three and a half. I just really wanted three here. So now the fact that it was three and a half, I bet it. It's three and a half at DraftKings right now, minus 115, which I think is fine.”
ARI 27-DAL 17 — Cardinals beat Cowboys 27-17 on Monday Night Football; Arizona won outright as a +3.5 underdog, easily covering (ESPN box score).
“Two tight ends and a dog. Fast pass parlay. Presented by DraftKings. Anytime touchdown for Trey McBride.”
Trey McBride caught a touchdown pass in Arizona's 27-17 Monday night win over Dallas (ESPN box score). (Trey McBride: 1 receiving touchdown)
“Houston favored by a point and a half. Luck rankings say bet the Texans. Stucky, action or distraction on that? Action. I know. I think Kendra's on the Broncos. I am on the Broncos. Which I completely disagree with. I like the Texans here. Look, the one thing I'm worried about is the pressure that Denver can generate. Usually when you look at this Houston offense, it's, okay, there's a shot of time. If he does, then he can pick defenses apart. If he doesn't, it can look ugly because the pocket just collapses immediately. That is a concern against Denver. But this Broncos defense is just not the same without Patrick Sertand. He allows them to do so much. He gives them so much flexibility. Takes the number one receiver out. Takes one side of the field away. And it allows you to be so much more aggressive. The drop off between him and Abrams drain is massive. So without him, I think Houston has clearly the better defense. They're at home. And they have the better quarterback, in my opinion. I'll take Stroud over Bo Nix. and are you not worried about their injury report though you're like the injury report guy nico collins questionable christian kirk questionable schultz questionable obviously tank dell's not available even braxton barrios is hurt like that's kind of cancel out the comment stuff though. I think it just cancels out the Sertain stuff. I think Collins and Kirk are going to play. They practiced yesterday. That's a really good sign. They're going to play, but that just doesn't change the fact that everybody's hurt and slow. Maybe. I liked what I saw from the Houston offense last week. Their young receivers looked good. Bo Nix is going to see a ton of zone quarters coverage here. This Houston pass defense is historically good. you're going to see a ton of zone. Bo Nix has been abysmal against zone this season. And one of the areas where Houston could move the ball is Denver's been dead. They're dead last in the league at defending running backs out of the backfield in the passing game. Woody Marks is starting to become a bigger focal point of the offense and getting more involved in that department. So that could be an area where Houston moves books. It's not going to take much in this game. Total is 40 for a reason, even though it's indoors. These are two elite defenses. Points are going to be hard to come by. But yeah, I'm rolling with the Texans here. I mean, if you look at this Broncos team, there's a reason why they're high up in our luck rankings. They beat the Jets by two. They beat the Giants by one. And they were down. I mean, that was a ridiculous comeback. They should have lost that game and they beat the road cowboys you even go back to some of their other wins they beat jake browning uh they beat the titans at home by one possession and then they had that crazy comeback against the eagles like this is a team that yes they have six wins but they easily could only have three or four so uh yeah i'm rolling with the texans at home i think”
DEN 18-HOU 15 — Broncos beat Texans 18-15; Houston lost outright as a -1.5 favorite, busting the spread (ESPN box score).
“Houston favored by a point and a half. Luck rankings say bet the Texans. Stucky, action or distraction on that? Action. I know. I think Kendra's on the Broncos. I am on the Broncos.”
DEN 18-HOU 15 — Broncos beat Texans 18-15 outright; Denver covered the +1.5 spread with the outright win (ESPN box score).
“I am going after the, a bet that I've placed on Gibbs, not touchdowns, but catches over three and a half at plus one 10”
Jahmyr Gibbs caught 3 passes in Detroit's loss to Minnesota, falling short of the over 3.5 receptions line (ESPN box score). (Jahmyr Gibbs: 3 receptions)
“this week is our place to do it with an anytime touchdown for our boy, Tyler Warren, plus 135.”
Tyler Warren did not score a touchdown in the Colts' 27-20 loss at Pittsburgh; he had 5 receptions for 26 yards (ESPN box score). (Tyler Warren: 5 receptions, 26 yards, 0 TD)
“So that's my first one. Falcons with the points and uh the second one I'll say Steelers plus three um I already went over some of the reasons why I think they can move the ball and keep up with the Colts and I just think this is a bit too high I think this should be under a field goal Tomlin is a dog of three or more as good as it gets 40 21 and three against the spread 65.6 he's the most profitable coach of all time when catching three or more 11 2 and 3 against the spread at home in that rule, 85% covering by eight points per game. And when the opponent has a winning percentage over 60%, 10-1-1 against the spread, covering by 10 points per game, usually wins a lot of games outright so those are my two Steelers plus three and Falcons plus five and a half”
ATL 23-NE 24 — Patriots beat Falcons 24-23; Atlanta lost by only 1, covering the +5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“the second one I'll say Steelers plus three um I already went [39:25] over some of the reasons why I think they can move the ball and keep up with the Colts”
IND 20-PIT 27 — Steelers beat Colts 27-20; Pittsburgh won outright as a +3 underdog, easily covering (ESPN box score).
“I am going to go with Seattle to cover the three. [40:54] I am the biggest Seattle backer in the world right now”
SEA 38-WSH 14 — Seahawks beat Commanders 38-14; Seattle won by 24, covering the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“I love the 49ers this week for two reasons One I love the coaching matchup the advantage of the 49ers staff Brian Dable is an idiot Two if we talking about injured versus injured here give me the 49ers.”
SF 34-NYG 24 — 49ers beat Giants 34-24 outright, winning the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“falcons plus five and a half against new england my two nominees the chiefs and i'm gonna go money line here on this one also simply the better team easy to get drunk on the bills blowout against Carolina that's last week different animal here Ed Oliver being out is huge for this game and the other would be the Panthers plus 13 and a half I need Bryce Young to play in order to really love this but I think he is it does look yeah right it looks like it's trending in that direction so this is situationally for Green Bay I don't really do the look ahead stuff in the NFL that's much more of a college thing but the Packers have the Eagles on Monday night football on deck and they just got done with the Rogers primetime game. This is the ultimate sleepy sandwich spot, almost two full touchdowns here and a buy low on the Panthers. So I really like both of these chiefs money line or Panthers plus 13 and a half at green Bay Kendra I like the Bills gun to my head in this situation just because they been embarrassed especially at home I think that it's got to be a Bills game for them.”
CAR 16-GB 13 — Panthers beat Packers 16-13; Carolina won outright as a +13.5 underdog, easily covering (ESPN box score).
“And the road Falcons.”
All three parlay legs cashed: Falcons covered +5.5 (lost 24-23), 49ers won ML (34-24), and Panthers covered +13.5 by winning outright 16-13 (ESPN box scores).
“i'm taking the dolphins plus the seven and a half do it you coward”
BAL 28-MIA 6 — Ravens beat Dolphins 28-6 on Thursday Night Football; Miami lost by 22, well outside the +7.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“but that's why I bought the points up can't talk you off of the Bears minus the two and a half”
CIN 42-CHI 47 — Bears beat Bengals 47-42; Chicago won by 5, covering the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So I'll play my flag on the Steelers. Plus three minus one, one of five.”
IND 20-PIT 27 — Steelers beat Colts 27-20; Pittsburgh won outright as a +3 underdog, easily covering (ESPN box score).
“i'm gonna go with the 49ers minus two and a half”
NYG 24-SF 34 — 49ers beat Giants 34-24; San Francisco won by 10, covering the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“i've already bet the detroit lions at minus eight and a half”
MIN 27-DET 24 — Vikings beat Lions 27-24; Detroit lost outright as a -8.5 favorite, busting the spread (ESPN box score).
“I do have the Bills in a teaser. Bought them up to 7.5 paired with the Bengals at 8.5 against the Bears.”
Both teaser legs cashed: Bills beat Chiefs 28-21 outright (covers +7.5), and Bengals lost to Bears 47-42 but covered +8.5 (ESPN box scores).
“Packers-Steelers tonight, one of my biggest plays on the week, Steelers plus three.”
PIT 25, GB 35 — Packers beat Steelers 35-25; Steelers margin -10 vs +3 busts (ESPN).
“All right. So our parlay, Rashee Rice over five and a half receptions, Terry McLaurin over yardage. What did you have that at, Kendra? 300 I think is currently where it's out let me refresh this yeah for McLaurin yardage oh no I had him for an anytime anytime touchdown sorry okay so awesome uh commanders plus 11 and a half that together over at DraftKings is plus 850 so we got McLaurin touchdown where she rice over on catches and the commanders cover the spread 290 my bad well i we got the price in there plus 850 we're good to go good luck everybody i hope that your sunday night is better than my sunday”
KC 28, WSH 7 — Parlay busts: Rashee Rice caught 9 passes (over 5.5 receptions wins); Terry McLaurin had 3 catches, 0 TD (anytime TD loses); Chiefs beat Commanders 28-7, Commanders margin -21 vs +11.5 (loses) (ESPN box score).
“Saints plus four against the Tampa Bay Bucs. Texans minus one against the San Francisco 49ers. I'll go into sell mode for these, and then I'll let you pick between the two. The injuries are catching up to Tampa. Short week. Now they go on the road in division. Baker has struggled in these spots four and five in uh in those positions ATS as a favorite against the NFC South I eliminate everything involved with Cleveland when I do anything Baker stat so thank you for putting that in the primer, Evan. This is a luck-ranking game on top of it. Rattler threw three picks last week. He hadn't thrown an interception since week three. If he can just play it safe, simple style of quarterback play, I think they can move on Tampa. Chris Alave has been playing some really good football. I can't quit the Saints. I've bet this team a lot this year, two and five ATS. So that doesn't exactly paid off. But I'm going to go back to the well here and fade the Bucs. As far as the other play, everything points to Houston here. San Francisco is a sell high. Houston's a buy low. They are a disgusting football team. One offensive touchdown last week in primetime. They have been awful in these primetime games. Just think back to that game against the Tampa Bay Bucs. the sharp side was the Texans just like it was against the Seahawks they have not been coming through but when you look at what the power rating is going to tell you is that the the Texans should be favored I think most people that look at this game are going to say well how in the world are the San Francisco 49ers not favored they're the better team Houston's defense is allowing 14.7 points per game Shanahan's team so last nine times they've faced the defense allowing 17 points per game or less one and eight against the spread i mean the texans might be bad but all signs point to them in this particular game yeah i like both i like both of these good job by kendra you maybe i'm rubbing off on you guys because i used to not like all your plays in the beginning of the year now this week i like all of your plays so good work here i'm gonna be bet both of these i like the texans i mean look the 49ers they had an all-out effort on against atlanta but i mean”
HOU 26, SF 15 — Texans beat 49ers 26-15; Texans margin +11 vs -1 covers (ESPN).
“i do have the ravens um already i i have them some money line to close out some parlays and um but i'm gonna bet them again”
BAL 30, CHI 16 — Ravens beat Bears 30-16; Ravens moneyline wins (ESPN).
“Right. Well, she doesn't have one of those jets. Giants are her too. So she is going East Rutherford action here. Giants plus seven and a half against the Eagles jets plus six and a half against the Cincinnati Bengals. I was going to tee up the jets. Once I saw that on our little Google doc, I decided to take it off. So my vote would be on the jets here. This Bengals team is not real. And if you look at every single direction of how to bet a game in the NFL, it would point you in the way of the New York Jets. Aaron Glenn hasn't committed to a quarterback yet. I think at this point we all hope it's Terod Taylor. Under Zach Taylor, the Bengals are 2-6 ATS when playing at home off of a night game. 2-5 ATS with extra time to prepare in a non-Burrow quarterback game. They're at home, won in prime time. Flacco looks amazing. I'm not buying any of it. And the Jets, I mean, you talk about do. I mean, this team is overdue for a win. So perhaps even a sprinkle on the money line. But I love the Jets this week That my favorite bet So that would be my vote I do like the Giants I just I afraid to buy high on the aura as Kendra would put it of Jackson Dart and”
CIN 38, NYJ 39 — Jets beat Bengals 39-38; Jets margin +1 vs +6.5 covers (ESPN).
“Saints plus four against the Tampa Bay Bucs. Texans minus one against the San Francisco 49ers. I'll go into sell mode for these, and then I'll let you pick between the two. The injuries are catching up to Tampa. Short week. Now they go on the road in division. Baker has struggled in these spots four and five in uh in those positions ATS as a favorite against the NFC South I eliminate everything involved with Cleveland when I do anything Baker stat so thank you for putting that in the primer, Evan. This is a luck-ranking game on top of it. Rattler threw three picks last week. He hadn't thrown an interception since week three. If he can just play it safe, simple style of quarterback play, I think they can move on Tampa. Chris Alave has been playing some really good football. I can't quit the Saints. I've bet this team a lot this year, two and five ATS. So that doesn't exactly paid off. But I'm going to go back to the well here and fade the Bucs. As far as the other play, everything points to Houston here. San Francisco is a sell high. Houston's a buy low. They are a disgusting football team. One offensive touchdown last week in primetime. They have been awful in these primetime games. Just think back to that game against the Tampa Bay Bucs. the sharp side was the Texans just like it was against the Seahawks they have not been coming through but when you look at what the power rating is going to tell you is that the the Texans should be favored I think most people that look at this game are going to say well how in the world are the San Francisco 49ers not favored they're the better team Houston's defense is allowing 14.7 points per game Shanahan's team so last nine times they've faced the defense allowing 17 points per game or less one and eight against the spread i mean the texans might be bad but all signs point to them in this particular game yeah i like both i like both of these good job by kendra you maybe i'm rubbing off on you guys because i used to not like all your plays in the beginning of the year now this week i like all of your plays so good work here i'm gonna be bet both of these i like the texans i mean look the 49ers they had an all-out effort on against atlanta but i mean”
NO 3, TB 23 — Buccaneers beat Saints 23-3; Saints margin -20 vs +4 busts (ESPN).
“So we're going to go with the Commanders plus 12 and a half.”
KC 28, WSH 7 — Chiefs beat Commanders 28-7; Commanders margin -21 vs +12.5 busts (ESPN).
“I do have a bet on Chicago at plus six and a half.”
BAL 30, CHI 16 — Ravens beat Bears 30-16; Bears margin -14 vs +6.5 busts (ESPN).
“I do have the Falcons teased down to one. So I'm going to, I'm going to lay off of that.”
ATL 10, MIA 34 — Dolphins beat Falcons 34-10; Falcons margin -24 vs -1 busts (ESPN).
“saints plus four and a half is my play in the”
NO 3, TB 23 — Buccaneers beat Saints 23-3; Saints margin -20 vs +4.5 busts (ESPN).
“I am on OKC, by the way, minus seven and a half.”
OKC 125, HOU 124 — Thunder beat Rockets 125-124 in 2OT on opening night; OKC margin +1 vs -7.5 busts (ESPN).
“I took a little grab at the plus six and a half on Chicago because there's no guarantee that Lamar is going to be out there.”
BAL 30, CHI 16 — Ravens beat Bears 30-16; Bears margin -14 vs +6.5 busts (ESPN).
“The Ravens are taking on the bears this week. Ravens off of a buy Ravens favored by six and a half points, but with a week off, and then you come back on Monday to practice and Lamar Jackson still isn't out there. Jim Harbaugh or John Harbaugh rather never said, well, he's definitely going to play in week eight. He said that I hope he plays in week eight. So there's still a lot of unknown out there. I took a little grab at the plus six and a half on Chicago because there's no guarantee that Lamar is going to be out there. That is a gift from the gods. Lamar is worth about seven points to the spread So maybe I get caught here with a bad number but if Lamar doesn play I sitting pretty I put one unit on that Where do you land on how we read this one early in the week with the Ravens? I completely disagree with you. Are you going head-to-head? What? Let's go head-to-head. Sure. I mean, the Ravens are going to be my plant, my flag game. I do think that Lamar plays.”
BAL 30, CHI 16 — Ravens beat Bears 30-16; Ravens margin +14 vs -6.5 covers (ESPN).
“I like the Steelers Sunday night football plus three That where I will plant my flag I love this spot for Pittsburgh”
PIT 25, GB 35 — Packers beat Steelers 35-25; Steelers margin -10 vs +3 busts (ESPN).
“So I like the Chargers, played them on a cheap money line. I think they get it done at home.”
IND 38, LAC 24 — Colts beat Chargers 38-24; Chargers moneyline loses (ESPN).
“But no, I got in on the Panthers early. I'll just sit with a light. I have a Panthers plus one. I'm just going to let that ride, see how it goes.”
NYJ 6, CAR 13 — Panthers beat Jets 13-6; Panthers +1 covers by 7 (ESPN).
“So, yeah, I like the Browns money line.”
CLE 31, MIA 6 — Browns beat Dolphins 31-6; Browns moneyline wins (ESPN).
“And then we'll do the Vikings money line. I already made my case earlier this week on plant the flag.”
MIN 22, PHI 28 — Eagles beat Vikings 28-22; Vikings moneyline loses (ESPN).
“So Titans plus seven, Browns money line, Chargers money line pays right around five to one at DK.”
Parlay busts: Patriots beat Titans 31-13 (Titans +7 loses, margin -18); Browns beat Dolphins 31-6 (Browns ML wins); Colts beat Chargers 38-24 (Chargers ML loses) (ESPN box scores).
“Falcons plus two and a half over on DraftKings against the 49ers.”
SF 20, ATL 10 — 49ers beat Falcons 20-10; Falcons lost by 10, busting the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“FIU plus 10 against Western Kentucky.”
FIU 25, WKU 6 — FIU beat Western Kentucky 25-6 outright, covering +10 (ESPN box score).
“but I placed a bet on them to win the Super Bowl this morning.”
Steelers were eliminated in the AFC Wild Card round, losing 30-6 at Houston on January 12, ending their Super Bowl LX futures (ESPN schedule/results).
“yesterday I placed a Super Bowl bet on the Ravens”
Ravens finished the 2025 regular season 8-9 and missed the playoffs, ending their Super Bowl LX futures (ESPN schedule/results).
“i am gonna go with the titans on the seven and a half i have to”
NE 31, TEN 13 — Patriots beat Titans 31-13; Titans lost by 18, busting the +7.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I did already bet the Vikings at plus two and a half.”
PHI 28, MIN 22 — Eagles beat Vikings 28-22; Vikings lost by 6, busting the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Raiders plus 11 and a half. [40:08] Planting my flag on that one.”
KC 31, LV 0 — Chiefs shut out Raiders 31-0; Raiders lost by 31, busting the +11.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Kansas City Moneyline minus 135. I vote Chiefs. I like both of these. I like the Chiefs a little bit more. I've actually played that one.”
KC 30, DET 17 — Chiefs beat Lions 30-17 outright, moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“I make this under a touchdown so yeah I took the seven and a half I agree with the move on the under”
NYG 34, PHI 17 — Giants beat Eagles 34-17 outright, covering +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to go Chargers money line because I know that.”
LAC 29, MIA 27 — Chargers beat Dolphins 29-27 outright, moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“i did play the saints so i'm gonna vote plus three and a half”
NE 25, NO 19 — Patriots beat Saints 25-19; Saints lost by 6, busting the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“It Saints plus three and a half Chargers Moneyline Chiefs Moneyline plus 370 I can wait to whip it out I so serious”
Parlay busts: Saints +3.5 lost (Patriots 25, Saints 19); Chargers ML won (Chargers 29, Dolphins 27); Chiefs ML won (Chiefs 30, Lions 17) — one losing leg sinks the parlay (ESPN box scores).
“Steelers minus five at home against the Browns.”
PIT 23, CLE 9 — Steelers beat Browns 23-9, covering the -5 spread by 14 points (ESPN box score).
“Panthers plus three and a half at home against the Cowboys.”
CAR 30, DAL 27 — Panthers beat Cowboys 30-27 outright, covering +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“i'll go i'll go falcons plus four and a half at draft kings on Monday night football against the Bills”
ATL 24, BUF 14 — Falcons beat Bills 24-14 outright, covering +4.5 (ESPN box score).
“I am going to plant my flag on the Patriots minus three and a half”
NE 25, NO 19 — Patriots beat Saints 25-19, covering the -3.5 spread by 6 points (ESPN box score).
“in bet jail for me I'm addicted to betting on the Chargers everything to do with the Chargers whether it's the Chargers whether it's Ladd McConkie I'm addicted I don't know what it is I need to put this whole team in bet jail did I already bet them next week to cover by a point and a half literally as I was talking to Gifford when we were in like the pre-show lobby for this yes i am addicted i don't know what it is but i am addicted to the los angeles chargers they are at the dolphins next yep dolphins are a bad football team yeah and i got them a point and a half before we got on the show”
LAC 29, MIA 27 — Chargers beat Dolphins 29-27, covering the -1.5 spread by 2 points (ESPN box score).
“all right we're starting so we're starting with chargers money line uh my two are gonna be the panthers plus one we'll call it and i guess if you want money then we'll go panthers money line or saints money line i like the saints up against the giants panthers first bet i made”
CAR 27, MIA 24 — Panthers beat Dolphins 27-24 outright, covering the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“start off the parlay with Chargers money line and just trust Harbaugh and Herbert to get it done at home.”
WSH 27, LAC 10 — Commanders beat Chargers 27-10; Los Angeles lost outright, busting the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“I've had some futures on them to win the division to make the playoffs over their win total”
Jaguars finished 13-4 and won the AFC South, clinching the division (ESPN standings). (Jacksonville 13-4, AFC South champions)
“I've had some futures on them to win the division to make the playoffs over their win total”
Jaguars finished 13-4, won the AFC South, and made the playoffs, hosting a Wild Card game vs Buffalo (ESPN schedule/standings). (Jacksonville 13-4, made 2025 playoffs)
“We have a money line parlay of the Jets, Chargers and Panthers.”
WSH 27-LAC 10; CAR 27-MIA 24; DAL 37-NYJ 22 — Chargers lost to Commanders 10-27 and Jets lost to Cowboys 22-37; only Panthers ML (beat Dolphins 27-24) won, so the 3-leg moneyline parlay busts (ESPN box scores).
“I like the matchup in the spot I played Carolina cheap minus one out there for this week”
CAR 27, MIA 24 — Panthers beat Dolphins 27-24, margin +3 covers Carolina -1 (ESPN box score).
“So I took the points. We'll come up with, Make sure you get that four and a half out there at DraftKings. Every point in this game is big. So we'll get Kendra to come up with a bet, but I am on the Browns.”
MIN 21, CLE 17 — Vikings beat Browns 21-17 in London; Cleveland's -4 margin covers +4.5 (ESPN box score).
“So I'll plant my flag on the Saints minus one, minus one and a half out there.”
NO 26, NYG 14 — Saints beat Giants 26-14, margin +12 covers New Orleans -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“i'm playing the flag on the minnesota vikings three and a half if you can get it four and a half on draft kings i bought it the second it opened”
MIN 21, CLE 17 — Vikings beat Browns 21-17 in London, margin +4 covers Minnesota -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“No, I mean, this is what I would make it with daniels that's a plus three is a horrible line in my opinion it was just an overreaction to what we just saw with the falcons and it's not like the commanders have been great uh Like they got a bunch of special teams plays last week. They were dominated by the Packers and they beat Russell Wilson in week one. I think this team is overrated coming into the year. Due for some massive regression on late downs. So, yeah, I grabbed the three. First bet I made this week. Feel good about it.”
ATL 34, WSH 27 — Falcons beat Commanders 34-27, margin +7 covers Atlanta +3 (ESPN box score).
“So if I end up, I'm still sitting on this 49ers minus three and a half with my plant the flag bet from Tuesday's episode.”
JAX 26, SF 21 — Jaguars beat 49ers 26-21; San Francisco lost outright, busting the -3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I would rather, and I took a sprinkle in the Panthers' money line just in case what happened last week was real. If that's the case, then they'll hang with New England and at least be in it at the end of the game at 2-1 odds. I felt like that was a bet that I had to at least sprinkle on.”
NE 42, CAR 13 — Patriots routed Panthers 42-13; Carolina lost outright, busting the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“I love the Jags at three and a half.”
JAX 26, SF 21 — Jaguars beat 49ers 26-21, margin +5 covers Jacksonville +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“It's locked in. We got the Rams minus three and a half. We get the Jags plus three and a half. We get the, uh, the giants plus six and a half as our newly named parlay.”
LAR 27-IND 20; JAX 26-SF 21; NYG 21-LAC 18 — All three legs hit: Rams beat Colts 27-20 (covers -3.5), Jaguars beat 49ers 26-21 (covers +3.5), Giants beat Chargers 21-18 (covers +6.5) — parlay wins (ESPN box scores).
“49ers minus three and a half already kind of teased this one. I got it at minus 105. This might touch three.”
JAX 26, SF 21 — Jaguars beat 49ers 26-21; San Francisco lost outright, so the -3.5 spread fails (ESPN box score).
“But I'll plant my flag on the Bengals plus 7.5. There's still some 7.5s out there, I think minus 115.”
DEN 28, CIN 3 — Broncos routed Bengals 28-3 on Monday Night Football; Cincinnati's 25-point loss doesn't come close to covering +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“And, yeah, the Titans, by the way, are just – I don't even want to talk about that game. They're 3-17 against the spread over the past 20. I bet them. That's a 7-1⁄2. I'm not even going to suggest it. I think it's 7-1⁄2. It's them or nothing. Just because the Texans probably don't deserve to be laying 7-1⁄2. That's exactly it. It's a bet against the Texans. Texans and unfortunately the Titans are the side on the other side of that you might be right I hate to say it but it's a divisional game the Texans have been terrible why I know laying is seven seven and I get I know and I got it at minus 110 that number is gone now which does make me feel good about the wager at least at this juncture in the week I sure I feel differently when we into the second quarter on Sunday But I feel like it was a bet that had to be made.”
HOU 26, TEN 0 — Texans shut out Titans 26-0; Tennessee's 26-point loss doesn't cover +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“But this Patriots team should not be a five and a half point favorite, just common sense wise. And then the numbers, there's something. And if Gonzalez comes back, that number is probably only going to get better. Yeah, it's going to go up to six, six and a half. I bet the Patriots this week. I bet the Patriots.”
NE 42, CAR 13 — Patriots blew out Panthers 42-13, a 29-point margin that easily covers -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“I think the Packers are a great teaser leg. I already took them down to half a point, and I paired that with the Denver Broncos on Monday night down to a point against the Cincinnati Bengals.”
Both teased legs must cover. Packers-Cowboys ended 40-40 in overtime, so Packers (teased to -0.5, needing an outright win) failed to clear the number and that leg loses; Broncos beat Bengals 28-3 on Monday night, comfortably covering the teased -1 (this leg wins). One losing leg sinks the teaser.
“I still would play the Falcons at two and a half, but obviously not as big.”
ATL 34, WAS 27 — Falcons beat Commanders 34-27 outright, a 7-point margin that covers +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm with you. I'm on the Giants as well. I got the six.”
KC 22, NYG 9 — Chiefs beat Giants 22-9; New York's 13-point loss falls short of covering +6 (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, I played the Jets again. I played them seven.”
TB 29, NYJ 27 — Buccaneers beat Jets 29-27; Jets lost by only 2, covering +7 (ESPN box score).
“i do want to mention i took the bucks minus seven i placed it on the app”
TB 29, NYJ 27 — Buccaneers beat Jets 29-27; Tampa Bay's 2-point margin falls short of covering -7 (ESPN box score).
“I got the Niners money line at plus 100 right now.”
SF 16, ARI 15 — 49ers beat Cardinals 16-15; San Francisco won outright, moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“yeah i took i took eight and a half browns are passed it's definitely browns are passed”
CLE 13, GB 10 — Browns beat Packers 13-10; Cleveland's 3-point win covers +8.5 (ESPN box score).
“titans plus three and a half against the indianapolis colts”
IND 41, TEN 20 — Colts beat Titans 41-20; Tennessee's 21-point loss doesn't come close to covering +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“So I have the Pat's plus one and a half at home. Pittsburgh's last outright road win against the Patriots came in 2008. Now, is that relevant? No, but it's a fun fact. That's not why I'm betting them. I like, I really liked the way the Patriots looked last week.”
PIT 21, NE 14 — Steelers beat Patriots 21-14; New England's 7-point loss falls short of covering +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“I also have the Bears plus one if you guys wanted a third option. I really like that bet.”
CHI 31, DAL 14 — Bears beat Cowboys 31-14; Bears' 17-point margin covers +1 (ESPN box score).
“So we have Rams plus 155. We've got on the money line, we've got Ladd McConkie anytime touchdown. We've got the Bears plus one. Estimate on price, plus 925.”
Parlay needs all three legs: Rams lost outright to the Eagles 33-26 (Rams ML fails); Ladd McConkey went 4/41 with 0 touchdowns in the Broncos-Chargers game (anytime-TD leg fails); Bears beat Cowboys 31-14, covering +1 (this leg wins). Two failed legs sink the parlay.
“But I'll put my flag on the Rams plus three and a half.”
PHI 33, LAR 26 — Eagles beat Rams 33-26; Rams lost outright by 7, well short of covering +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Bears minus one is my plant-the-flag pick. Off a blowout loss, taking on a Cowboys team off of five quarters of football. They almost played until the bone on that one. Chicago at home the last five seasons have been nearly three points better in terms of their home and road splits that ranks top 10 in the NFL over that time early action also tilt in that direction. I already grabbed the minus 105 on them. Minus one.”
CHI 31, DAL 14 — Bears beat Cowboys 31-14; Bears' 17-point margin easily covers -1 (ESPN box score).
“but the refs helped them out a bunch early So yeah the Jets that line probably going to go up when Tyra Taylor It a touchdown right now It was 6 which I wouldn like But at 7, 7.5... I think 7.5 I'd get there. The juice on the game is telling a story that early money's coming in on Tampa. I bought it at minus 105 on Sunday after the Justin Fields injury.”
TB 29, NYJ 27 — Buccaneers beat Jets 29-27; Tampa Bay's 2-point margin falls short of covering -6 (ESPN box score).
“I like the Jets plus six and a half.”
Buffalo 30, New York Jets 10 — Bills beat Jets 30-10 on Sep 14, 2025; the Jets lost by 20, outside covering +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“I like the Jets. I mean, I already bet the Jets. I put in the app myself, but I had it at seven.”
Buffalo 30, New York Jets 10 — Bills beat Jets 30-10 on Sep 14, 2025; the Jets lost by 20, outside covering +7 (ESPN box score).
“I like the Cowboys minus five and a half against the Giants.”
Dallas 40, New York Giants 37 — Cowboys beat Giants 40-37 in OT on Sep 14, 2025; Dallas's 3-point margin fell short of covering -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm in on the Falcons plus three and a half.”
Atlanta 22, Minnesota 6 — Falcons beat Vikings 22-6 on Sep 14, 2025; Atlanta won outright, comfortably covering the Falcons' +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“All right, well, my favorite bet, before I get Kendra's thoughts, because you're probably not going to like this because no one is probably going to like this, is the Texans. Who wants to bet the Texans as a favorite? Apparently me. But that's my favorite bet. That's on Monday night. Anything under three. Last week was a mess offensively. But you have to understand that before the game, they ruled their guard out with an abdomen injury. Hopefully he's back this week. And he was really good in the preseason, Ed Ingram. They removed him. That changed three positions around. And throughout the game, they had five or six different combinations. They had all these guys playing tackle, then they had two injuries. There was no way it was going to be functional. So no matter what this week, I think Ingram will be back. That will allow Howard to go to tackle. And I think Patterson at safety for Andrews is even better. But they'll get a week to practice with it. They went into the game, game day, and then had to switch up their entire offense to three positions and then had two injuries. It was a disaster. So it won't look that bad. The Bucs' defense is bad. They got lucky last week. their offensive lines a mess. They got their center playing tackle, their guard playing center because Wirfs is out. They're missing McMillan, Godwin still. Baker should have thrown like three or four picks last week. They got very fortunate. Texans get it done. That defense at home, I'm trusting them and Stroud to bounce back with a more stable offensive line. So Texans minus two and a half, Falcons plus three and a half, my favorite two bets.”
Tampa Bay 20, Houston 19 — Buccaneers beat Texans 20-19 on Sep 15, 2025; Houston lost by 1, outside covering -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“Okay, we'll go six and a half. So I hinted to this on a Tuesday show that I am behind the Carolina Panthers. I know that it's ugly. I know nobody likes it, but I have some information for you guys. But before I give you this information, who do you think is better or worse the saints or the carolina panthers the saints but you think the saints are better than the panthers no no i think the panthers are better than the saints okay exactly and last week who struggled against the saints the arizona cardinals last year in the matchup between the panthers and the cardinals the cardinals beat Arizona 36-30 in that overtime matchup that knocked Arizona out of playoff contention. The Panthers are 15-6 against Arizona all-time, and the Panthers are 6-2 on the road in Arizona in that all-time matchup. In that game last season, Chuba Hubbard ran for a win. 152 yards and had two touchdowns and Bryce Young threw for two touchdowns and rushed for another for some reason the Panthers have their number them getting this big of a spread I absolutely think that the Panthers are the play here”
Arizona 27, Carolina 22 — Cardinals beat Panthers 27-22 on Sep 14, 2025; Carolina lost by 5, within covering +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm behind Miami this week.”
New England 33, Miami 27 — Patriots beat Dolphins 33-27 on Sep 14, 2025; Miami lost outright, busting the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“But yeah I took the seven with them this week against the Bills The Bills have defensive issues I think the Jets can hang around in that game”
Buffalo 30, New York Jets 10 — Bills beat Jets 30-10 on Sep 14, 2025; the Jets lost by 20, outside covering +7 (ESPN box score).
“on Miami so not a full uh not a full opposition there I'm on the Kansas City Chiefs in this game plus one and a half give me a great buy low for Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes as home underdogs of more than a point coming off of a loss with some semblance of extended rest I know Philly has”
Philadelphia 20, Kansas City 17 — Eagles beat Chiefs 20-17 on Sep 14, 2025; Kansas City lost by 3, outside covering +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“I on the Packers minus three and a half on Thursday night football”
Green Bay 27, Washington 18 — Packers beat Commanders 27-18 on Sep 11, 2025; Green Bay's 9-point margin covered -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I like Oklahoma over six and a half, seven.”
Oklahoma finished the 2025 regular season 10-2, well over the 6.5 win total (ESPN schedule). (Oklahoma 10-2)
“stucky uh let's go with i'll mention ucf uh they play this a weekday they play jacksonville state they should actually roll in that game but um under five and a half it's alex grinch is the defensive coordinator for scott frost who comes back to ucf he's one of the worst defensive coordinators in college football for my money. That hire to me is head-scratching. And then they just named Cam Fancher the starting quarterback. That is probably a bad sign for what the quarterback room looked like. This is a guy who probably should be starting at the group of five level. I wasn't in love with all the talent they brought in. This should be a rebuilding year for UCF. I like under five and a half. And then I mentioned”
UCF finished the 2025 regular season 5-7, under the 5.5 win total (ESPN schedule). (UCF 5-7)
“Penn State before. Penn State plus money to make the Big Ten title game. I like. They might not be”
Penn State finished the 2025 regular season 6-6 (3-6 Big Ten), nowhere near contention and did not qualify for the Big Ten Championship Game (ESPN schedule). (Penn State 6-6)
“Central Michigan out there to win the MAC. It's like 20, 25 to 1.”
Western Michigan 23, Miami (OH) 13 — Western Michigan won the 2025 MAC title, beating Miami (OH) 23-13 in the championship game on Dec 6; Central Michigan finished 7-5 (5-3 MAC) and did not reach the title game (ESPN schedule).
“Michigan offense running the triple in space what Army does is going to mess up a lot of defenses in the Mac it's going to work on Tuesday and Wednesday nights you're going to hear a lot of chirping from us. Stock what's your last future? I did take Central Michigan I think the first time”
Western Michigan 23, Miami (OH) 13 — Western Michigan won the 2025 MAC title, beating Miami (OH) 23-13 in the championship game on Dec 6; Central Michigan finished 7-5 (5-3 MAC) and did not reach the title game (ESPN schedule).
“I'll throw a couple college football playoff bets out there I played some USC to make the playoff plus 480 and I played some Texas A&M plus 240. I think Texas A&M is a really high floor.”
USC finished the 2025 regular season 9-3 and played in the (non-playoff) Valero Alamo Bowl, confirming they missed the 12-team CFP field (ESPN schedule). (USC 9-3)
“I think Texas A&M is a really high floor.”
Texas A&M finished 11-1 and made the 12-team College Football Playoff, playing (and losing to) Miami 10-3 in the CFP First Round on Dec 20 (ESPN schedule). (Texas A&M 11-1)
“Sam Houston plus 10.5 against UNLV.”
UNLV 38, Sam Houston 21 — UNLV beat Sam Houston 38-21 on Aug 29, 2025; Sam Houston lost by 17, well outside covering +10.5 (ESPN box score).
“ruckers team total over 31 and a half they are going to have their way with that offensive line”
Rutgers 34, Ohio 31 — Rutgers beat Ohio 34-31 on Aug 28, 2025; Rutgers' 34 points cleared the 31.5 team-total line (ESPN box score).
“Neutral field taking over the touchdown, taking over seven with Vatek.”
South Carolina 24, Virginia Tech 11 — South Carolina beat Virginia Tech 24-11 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Aug 31, 2025; Virginia Tech lost by 13, outside covering +7 (ESPN box score).
“And this kind of falls into that area too So I like Arizona all the way up to 21”
Arizona 40, Hawaii 6 — Arizona beat Hawaii 40-6 on Aug 30, 2025; Arizona's 34-point margin covered -17.5 (ESPN box score).
“let's go with uh Charlotte catching seven”
Appalachian State 34, Charlotte 11 — Appalachian State beat Charlotte 34-11 on Aug 29, 2025; Charlotte lost by 23, outside covering +7 (ESPN box score).
“The Bengals under nine and a half.”
Bengals finished the 2025 regular season 6-11, under the 9.5 win total (NFL.com standings). (CIN 6-11)
“I'm on their plus 185 to not make the playoffs.”
Bengals finished 6-11 and were eliminated from playoff contention, cashing the not-to-make-playoffs bet at +185 (NFL.com standings). (CIN 6-11)
“Steelers plus 550 to win the division. 20 to 1 to win the conference. Super Bowl 40 to 1. win total eight and a half feels like we're getting a Mike Tomlin bounce at the eight and a half their defense is great if if everyone is fat and happy right and right now they're not TJ Watt who by the way is 31 years old has a new deal Cam Hayward a hold in only been sort of doing light practice work but has said he'll sit out games um got enra rogers obviously who has not been enra rogers for years their greatest asset is mike tomlin and his ability to coax wins and that's why i think the win total is even at eight and a half like otherwise if you judge this just on talent, I think it's probably seven and a half. I think like if I were betting this team, I'd probably wait until the second half of the year and see if I can get an adjusted under. Because the first half of the year, Jets, Browns, Patriots, Seahawks, Colts, like not terrible, but the second half of the year, they got Bills, Ravens twice, Lions, gets harder. What do you think of this? Yeah, just an interesting built team. Like you talk about the defense, I think it's 160 million that they've spent on their defense. And being an Eagles fan I think we at maybe 70 million So it like are they million better than the Eagles defense Probably not but that how it is when chad talked about you paying older guys big contracts and you know cam hayward i'd be ripping my fucking hair out if i worked in that front office who the fuck does this guy think he is signing a new deal last year now coming in a year later being all pissy saying i outplayed that contract the year before now it is weird right bizarre there must be something else because everything you've ever read about Cam is he's like the man. He's a football guy, team first. Yeah, just the man. But, you know, what is he, 36, 37? He gets it where he's like, that was probably as good as it gets last year. And if I can get one more payday, I might as well try it and try to be a piece of shit about it where it's everyone else on that team is just like, dude, we just paid TJ. We've signed all these guys. I mean, even their kickers have some drama about money. So it's like, what is going on with Pittsburgh? They try to be good and pay their guys, and now all these other players are thrown in their face, being like, I want more. I deserve more. It's tough. And again, this is another team that I wanted to be on them as a sneaky team in this division where it's like, everyone's talking Ravens, Bengals, Steelers. If Rodgers, again, as much as people left him for dead, he did look so much better that second half of the season. He looked confident, pushing the ball downfield, pushing off his back foot, where for the first eight, nine weeks, he did not do that. He was very timid. And, you know, we know the deal. This is not Brady going to the Bucs. Rodgers is not built that way. He doesn't play the same style. And, you know, this is a guy that relied a lot on his athleticism, and that's gone. So now we're sitting with a what, Chad? a bottom you know not top 20 but maybe top 25 quarterback like i'm trying to think where i even fit in rogers now and when i model this team out my model doesn't get the tomlin effect you just nailed it like my model has him at seven wins so i have him at a game and a half below it but a computer doesn't understand that tomlin it's he's a glitch there's nothing like him coaching wise like this guy just will right so what's the value of that though like to me I think they're giving him, you say they're at seven. I had it at seven and a half. And I think they're getting an extra game just because of Tomlin. Yeah. I mean, if you think Vrabel is worth two and a half, Tomlin should be worth three to you then, Chad, like as much as I want to give respect to Vrabel. Omlin's that dude. And I know he doesn't have the success, but it's like, dude, every year they throw out trash at the quarterback position and he makes it work because he just wills his team, special teams, defense, whatever it is. So we know the deal. Like this team, I think you just nailed it too, where it's like you want to take a position later on and take their under. That was the move last year. And I hate that I missed it where we all kind of started drinking the Kool-Aid on, you know, Russell Wilson because he came in, he was so dynamic, and they kept winning after Justin Fields got benched. But we kept saying to ourselves, the number doesn't back it up. When you dive into Russell Wilson, it's not. It's just luck. Like his 50-50 balls deep downfield, eventually it's going to go the other way. And I think they went, I don't know if it was five straight games. They just got worked at the end of the season. They couldn't cover either. So I look at this team that if they just have a stable position player in Aaron Rodgers, the quarterback position, and he can get the ball to DK, and they can make it work offensively, and this rookie of the draft can be their number one running back, great. but like I have so many questions about their offensive line. I have so many questions about their run block and all the offensive line. I just, I can't get it, get there and be excited. So I'll bet the over out of respect to Tomlin.”
Steelers finished the 2025 regular season 10-7 and clinched the AFC North, over the 8.5 win total (NFL.com standings). (PIT 10-7)
“i fucking love this browns Give me that over four and a half I love this team so much”
Browns finished the 2025 regular season 5-12, over the 4.5 win total (NFL.com standings). (CLE 5-12)
“for this Browns team. And, you know, it's the fact that it's four and a half. This is a team I'll bet the adjusted total. Like I'll adjust it, take the six and a half and plus 200. over.”
Browns finished the 2025 regular season 5-12, under the adjusted 6.5 win total at +200 (NFL.com standings). (CLE 5-12)
“I going to bet Ravens Lions Ravens Eagles probably Ravens Niners as part of my Super Bowl matchup round robin”
Ravens finished the 2025 regular season 8-9 and missed the AFC playoffs entirely, so every leg of the Ravens Super Bowl-matchup round robin lost (NFL.com AFC standings). (BAL 8-9)
“Favorite bet from Simon, I think it's the Lions over 10.5.”
Detroit finished the 2025 regular season 9-8, under the over 10.5 win total (ESPN standings). (DET 9-8)
“give me lines plus 145 divisional odds.”
Chicago won the NFC North at 11-6; Detroit finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs (ESPN standings). (DET 9-8)
“So I'm going with Lions plus 145 because I like getting plus money on this team to win the division.”
Chicago won the NFC North at 11-6; Detroit finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs (ESPN standings). (DET 9-8)
“And at eight and a half wins, I hate it. I wanted to fade this team so bad. I have to take the over because it's like if this kid's legit with a stacked defense and a stacked offense,”
Minnesota finished the 2025 regular season 9-8, clearing the over 8.5 win total (ESPN standings). (MIN 9-8)
“It all starts with Jalen Hurts. So, yeah, very, very confident in this divisional bet. This is probably my top three of my highest bet right now. It opened at 150. It actually dropped at some books to 140, 145. So people are betting Washington. They are betting Dallas, and they're moving this number. So I'm hoping it doesn't get above 150 again. I think this is the right price for me in the value-wise betting this Eagles team.”
Philadelphia won the NFC East at 11-6 (ESPN standings).
“I like the Commanders under nine and a half total wins.”
Washington finished the 2025 regular season 5-12, comfortably under the 9.5 win total (ESPN standings). (WAS 5-12)
“Still, no one's drinking the coolant. Everyone just hates this Dallas team. So, yeah, even though I love the Eagles, I've hyped it up. This is clearly my favorite value-wise divisional bet, plus 600. It's amazing, amazing odds where I'm telling you people, they're not that much worse than the Eagles.”
Dallas finished 7-9-1 and Philadelphia (11-6) won the NFC East (ESPN standings). (DAL 7-9-1)
“And for a win total, again, my model has them 8.5. I think this is easily a 10-win team, 9-win team. So 7.5, it's one of my favorite totals. I've been betting it for three months now. It's lined up for this team.”
Dallas finished the 2025 regular season 7-9-1 (ESPN standings); by standard sportsbook convention a tie counts half a win, making their total exactly 7.5 wins, a push against the over 7.5 line. (DAL 7-9-1)
“find wins for you guys, but I look at it and I'm just like, if they got to three wins this year, that to me would be a good season for this Giants team That how brutal of a schedule is and that how bad their team is when I plug them into my model So I got them at four wins If you get over three tons of respect to this team But yeah, five and a half, I'll take that under every time if it's a game and a half.”
New York finished the 2025 regular season 4-13, under the 5.5 win total (ESPN standings). (NYG 4-13)
“If I'm going to bet this, like if I'm betting their win total, I'll take it. 11 and a half, no problem.”
Buffalo finished the 2025 regular season 12-5, clearing the over 11.5 win total (ESPN standings). (BUF 12-5)
“but i do matchups so like i've already thrown a couple matchups with them the rams them and the eagles and they're all they're all nice and juicy i think they're all like 50 or 45 to one you know i do the matchups i've already i actually did the bills and the niners at 45 to one like that i think we talked about this with the nfc west”
Super Bowl LX was Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots (Seahawks won 29-13 on Feb 8, 2026); the Bills and 49ers matchup never happened.
“All right, Miami. As I said, division seven to one, conference 35 to one, Super Bowl 75 to one, win total seven and a half. I'm telling you, man, if Tua is healthy, this is a competitive team, no matter how bad their defense is. Every time you look at the stats for the past few years, when he is playing a full season, I know we don't like him as a quarterback. I know we would never put him in a top 10, but he is a top 10 quarterback across every single metric. Superficial stats, advanced metrics, anything you look at because of who he is, because of the system he plays in, he is just too good in this offense. He is too accurate. The offense is too hard to stop on short slants and quick throws in short yardage situation. So everyone is down on them, which screams to me, give me the over seven and a half.”
Miami finished the 2025 regular season 7-10, under the over 7.5 win total (ESPN schedule/results). (MIA 7-10)
“it's just a really favorable season for this 49ers. And you already talked about it, too, the seesawing of Shanahan coach teams. Their down years, high ceiling years, really low years. It's just he really does well based off of the year before they got the fourth-place schedule. They really bounce back the following season. So even if they have a dip in talent from that Super Bowl team, I still see them being an 11-win team, 12-win team. So, yeah, give me that over 10.5 win total, Chad.”
San Francisco finished the 2025 regular season 12-5, clearing the over 10.5 win total (ESPN standings). (SF 12-5)
“Niners over 10.5.”
San Francisco finished the 2025 regular season 12-5, clearing the over 10.5 win total (ESPN standings). (SF 12-5)
“Love the Rams, obviously, over 9.5.”
The Rams finished the 2025 regular season 12-5, clearing the over 9.5 win total (ESPN standings). (LAR 12-5)
“Seahawks under 8.5.”
Seattle finished the 2025 regular season 14-3, well past the under 8.5 win total (ESPN standings). (SEA 14-3)
“So, yeah, I'll join you on that under 8.5 on that Seattle team.”
Seattle finished the 2025 regular season 14-3, well past the under 8.5 win total (ESPN standings). (SEA 14-3)
“Now you're looking at Chiefs, though, and they're at minus 110 for this division, Chad.”
Denver (14-3) won the AFC West; Kansas City finished 6-11, so the Chiefs-to-win-AFC-West bet lost (ESPN/Wikipedia final standings).
“my favorite division bet from this division Raiders over six and a half full stop that's it Raiders over six and a half.”
Las Vegas finished 3-14, well under the 6.5-win total, so the over lost (ESPN final standings). (LV 3-14)
“and their Raiders defense could have major issues. But when you break down this offense with Gentry, with the fact that the offense line is not terrible. It obviously needs a little bit of improvement. But, you know, between Gentian Bowers and Chip Kelly, I love that. I love that they have an offensive guy that's going to notice how to get this best players of the ball. So Geno Smith, you know, I told you I was saving this for the season long. He a different totally different player in dome games He way above 500 is the spread it like above 700 hit rate against the spread in indoor dome games So it's like the type of scenario where he's always outperformed what bookmakers have projected of him in indoor games and the general public. So I already love that coming in where it's like, okay, he spent his whole career in outdoor stadiums. Now he's inside in a dome game. And, you know, sure, he could get some tough weather games. I know at the end of the season, you know, they are at Philly and they're at Houston. I think Houston's in the door, actually. But there's just a bunch of things that line up for them. They're always going to be in these preferable weather conditions for this type of offense they're going to be running here. So 15-1 division odds, Chad, I bet it. Like, this opened at 17-1. It's been bet down to 15-1. It's too big to me.”
Denver (14-3) won the AFC West; Las Vegas finished last at 3-14, so the Raiders-to-win-AFC-West bet lost (ESPN/Wikipedia final standings).
“But to me, it's just the bets that win total. If you believe in this team over 9.5, you got to take it. The only way they regress into that number is just because this division has improved so much. So, yeah, just looking at their schedule, the way it's all broken, out um i like how it sets up for them this upcoming season and the fact that they end chiefs chargers those are the last two games to the end of the season that's another way i like the break for this type of team so um yeah i just nine nine and a half win total that's the only real bet i'd give out on this show for for denver”
Denver finished 14-3, clearing the 9.5-win total, so the over cashed (ESPN final standings). (DEN 14-3)
“But Raiders six and a half was my favorite.”
Las Vegas finished 3-14, well under the 6.5-win total, so the over lost (ESPN final standings). (LV 3-14)
“But if you were out there and you could find a better than 375 number on this division odds, I wouldn't hate that. I got it right there. I got them at plus 300. So plus 75, that's nice value to me.”
Denver won the AFC West at 14-3, so the division-futures bet won (ESPN/Wikipedia final standings).
“My list was Raiders over six and a half, Chiefs division but parlaying it,”
Denver (14-3), not Kansas City (6-11), won the AFC West, so the parlay's Chiefs division leg lost (ESPN/Wikipedia final standings).
“All right, just sprinkle a little on 15 to one Raiders just for the show. They're a little bit. Tiny Scotian Raiders. It could be fun to end the season. I love it. I'm in. I'm all in, Simon. Listen, the favorites will return. Let me recap. Let me recap. We just did it though. Raiders over six and a half. Chiefs divisional odds for Simon. Broncos divisional odds for both of us, although it's less value. Raiders 15 to one to win the conference.”
New England, not Las Vegas (3-14), was the AFC champion that lost Super Bowl LX to Seattle 29-13, so the Raiders-to-win-AFC bet lost (Wikipedia: Super Bowl LX).
“Yeah. My favorite bets would be Panthers over, six and a half.”
Carolina finished 8-9, clearing the 6.5-win total, so the over cashed (ESPN final standings). (CAR 8-9)
“yeah, this was a game I mean, this was the line that right away when I saw it open up, I jumped on the under and I I'm I'm like you. I was just like, am I the fish here? Is this is this too easy? Because it's I didn't get the five and a half hanging that number either.”
New Orleans finished 6-11, one win over the 5.5 line, so the under lost (ESPN final standings). (NO 6-11)
“My favorite bets would be Panthers over, six and a half. Saints under, five and a half, and then the Panthers division plus 400.”
Carolina (8-9) won the NFC South division on tiebreakers over Tampa Bay and Atlanta (also 8-9), so the division-futures bet won (Wikipedia: 2025 NFL season).
“to be a competent quarterback, something the Falcons have not had since Matt Ryan, he could change that offense because they have all the weapons. Like, Drake London, stud. Like, Robinson, stud. And Cal Pitts, we don't know because he's never had a quarterback. So I I I'm with you. I like I like the pieces there. It's I get why you're going with it, but, there's another team in this division I love more. So that's why I'm just not all in with you. I get where you're coming from. I did bet their win total. I have them at eight and a half. The win total is seven and a half. Obviously, a full game to the over. I'll take that over on the win just because of this division. Like, the way this division shakes out,”
Atlanta finished 8-9, clearing the 7.5-win total, so the over cashed (ESPN final standings). (ATL 8-9)
“I had, saints under five and a half,”
New Orleans finished 6-11, one win over the 5.5 line, so the under lost (ESPN final standings). (NO 6-11)
“I had, saints under five and a half, panthers over six and a half,”
Carolina finished 8-9, clearing the 6.5-win total, so the over cashed (ESPN final standings). (CAR 8-9)
“Titans over five and a half and titans plus seven twenty. Yeah.”
Tennessee finished the 2025 season 3-14, well under the 5.5-win total, so the over lost (ESPN final standings). (TEN 3-14)
“I mean, it's it's gonna be titans over wins in their division odds. Titans over five and a half and titans plus seven twenty. Yeah.”
Jacksonville (13-4) won the AFC South; Tennessee finished 3-14 and last in the division, so the Titans-to-win-AFC-South bet lost (ESPN/Wikipedia final standings).
“I did make a small bet on them, their win total, because it did open at seven and a half. I bet it. The juice has been going up towards the over, because to me, they're they're all upside team.”
Jacksonville finished 13-4, clearing the 7.5-win total, so the over cashed (ESPN final standings). (JAX 13-4)
“So I would say that the actual advice here is Matthew Stafford's passing touchdown prop is 22 and a half. I think that's a couple touchdowns too low. So I'm taking that over,”
Matthew Stafford threw 46 passing touchdowns in the 2025 regular season, leading the NFL and easily clearing the 22.5 over/under, so the prop won. (46 passing TDs)
“You're getting minus one ten of the Chiefs in that division running to the window to bet that one.”
The Denver Broncos won the 2025 AFC West at 14-3; the Kansas City Chiefs finished third in the division at 6-11, so the Chiefs-to-win-AFC-West futures bet lost.
“San Francisco could end up being the number one seed in the NFC? Simon, yes or no? Yes. Just because of schedule. Brandon? Yes. They're my one Super Bowl ticket right now.”
The Seattle Seahawks beat the San Francisco 49ers 41-6 in the NFC Divisional Round and went on to win Super Bowl LX over the New England Patriots 29-13, so the 49ers Super Bowl futures ticket lost.
“San Francisco could end up being the number one seed in the NFC? Simon, yes or no? Yes. Just because of schedule. Brandon? Yes. They're my one Super Bowl ticket right now. Chad? Yes. They're one of my two Super Bowl tickets right now.”
The Seattle Seahawks beat the San Francisco 49ers 41-6 in the NFC Divisional Round and went on to win Super Bowl LX over the New England Patriots 29-13, so the 49ers Super Bowl futures ticket lost.
“And Stafford is a 50 to one MVP ticket is a ticket worth investing in for once.”
Matthew Stafford won the Associated Press 2025 NFL Most Valuable Player award, so the 50-1 MVP futures ticket cashed.
“Jace Richardson, to be the number 10 pick, I bet it in the action app last night, 40 to one odds.”
In the 2025 NBA Draft, Jase Richardson was selected 25th overall by the Orlando Magic; the #10 overall pick was Khaman Maluach, so the bet on Richardson going #10 lost.
“I bet Pacers or I bet Thunder four two yesterday plus two ninety.”
4-3 — The Thunder won the 2025 NBA Finals in seven games (4-3), clinching with a 103-91 Game 7 win on June 22, not 4-2, so the Thunder-to-win-4-2 bet lost.
“I'm gonna take that four two bet with OKC with you, Matt, but I'm also gonna throw a four three bet on the Pacers at you know, last time I checked, it was crazy, guys. It might have been 10 to one.”
4-3 — The Thunder won the 2025 NBA Finals in seven games (4-3), clinching with a 103-91 Game 7 win on June 22, not 4-2, so the Thunder-to-win-4-2 bet lost.
“I'm gonna take that four two bet with OKC with you, Matt, but I'm also gonna throw a four three bet on the Pacers at you know, last time I checked, it was crazy, guys.”
3-4 — Oklahoma City won the 2025 NBA Finals 4-3 (Thunder, not Pacers, won in seven games, clinching 103-91 on June 22), so the Pacers-to-win-series-4-3 bet lost.
“I like the series spread. I'm taking Thunder minus two and a half games. There's a minus one ten out there.”
4-3 — Oklahoma City beat Indiana 4-3 in the 2025 NBA Finals (won the series by only one game, clinching in Game 7, 103-91 on June 22), so the Thunder -2.5 series-games spread lost.
“So I'm betting on Brock Purdy, 35 to one.”
Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams) won the 2025 NFL MVP award, so the Brock Purdy MVP futures lost.
“I bet the niners 25 to one to win the Super Bowl.”
6-41 — The 49ers were eliminated in the Divisional Round, losing 41-6 to the Seattle Seahawks, who went on to win Super Bowl LX, so the 49ers-to-win-the-Super-Bowl futures lost.
“Kyler Murray. That's my pick. Kyler Murray is 50 to one. This is my more realistic one.”
Matthew Stafford won the 2025 NFL MVP award, so the Kyler Murray MVP futures lost.
“I'm I'm on with the Cowboys. How am I not gonna go with Dak, 45 to one.”
Matthew Stafford won the 2025 NFL MVP award, so the Dak Prescott MVP futures lost.
“is Bo Nix. I bet this one, he was a 100 to one down to 80 to one. Now he's 75 to one.”
Matthew Stafford won the 2025 NFL MVP award, so the Bo Nix MVP futures lost.
“but if the Rams are good, Matthew Stafford, 50 to one, I think is a really interesting MVP”
Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams) won the 2025 NFL MVP award, receiving 23 of 50 votes in a close vote over Drake Maye, so the Stafford MVP futures cashed.
“My second pick. I am gonna go with Trevor Lawrence 50 to one.”
Matthew Stafford won the 2025 NFL MVP award, so the Trevor Lawrence MVP futures lost.
“You can't get it in the action app yet, but I bet both, the cowboys plus seven and the cowboys on the money line at plus two forty.”
PHI 24, DAL 20 — Eagles beat Cowboys 24-20 in the Week 1 2025 opener; Dallas lost by 4, covering the +7 spread (ESPN box score).
“You can't get it in the action app yet, but I bet both, the cowboys plus seven and the cowboys on the money line at plus two forty.”
PHI 24, DAL 20 — Eagles beat Cowboys 24-20 in the Week 1 2025 opener; Dallas lost outright, so the Cowboys moneyline bet lost (ESPN box score).
“We have the Dallas cowboys, seven point underdogs on the road against the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.”
PHI 24, DAL 20 — Eagles beat Cowboys 24-20 in the Week 1 2025 opener; Dallas lost by 4, covering the +7 spread (ESPN box score).
“The, money line number is plus two forty for the Cowboys.”
PHI 24, DAL 20 — Eagles beat Cowboys 24-20 in the Week 1 2025 opener; Dallas lost outright, so the Cowboys moneyline bet lost (ESPN box score).
“Alright. Anthony, give me your plays. And, Simon, after this conversation, you are a professional better who's got a keen insight into psyche. I wanna hear what your play is, and then I will give you mine. Yeah. So I did I did take some tag, Lei. I I do think that, his popularity, his his emerging markets kinda play is the most interesting angle of this entire conclave because of his opportunity.”
The 2025 papal conclave elected Cardinal Robert Prevost, who took the name Pope Leo XIV, on May 8, 2025; Luis Antonio Tagle was not elected, so the bet lost.
“But, Abilene is my favorite dark horse. [38:04] I found the equivalent of 20 to one, on him, so I took some of that.”
The 2025 papal conclave elected Cardinal Robert Prevost, who took the name Pope Leo XIV, on May 8, 2025; Jean-Marc Aveline was not elected, so the bet lost.
“Luis, the guy from The Philippines, he's the right age. Like, he's 67, I think. So to me, that's, like, what they're look For. They want someone, like, right around that age. He's not the main guy, which I feel like you nailed it, Chad, where, like, men inherently are weird and jealous creatures. And the guy who is the man of the group, he might not be the man to a lot of people, but they act like it to his face. And they wait for these type of moments that in secrecy, they can take away some of his power. This guy who thinks he's the shit, it's like, no. You're not. And we're gonna give it to someone else who's more deserving. So, yeah. I just think that whole market, the fact that they're trying to spread in Asia, that just makes more sense to me to to vote in a guy who seems like a good guy, seems like he's well liked. And, like, even just reading about him before he came on today, it's like, this guy is well traveled. Like, he's done a lot in his years of service. So I didn't know I didn't realize his age. To me, that's the big factor here is the fact that he is 67, 68. Like, that's a big deal when they do these votes, Chad. So, yeah, I'm going with the 20 percenter guy. Not the greatest odds, but I'll take it.”
The 2025 papal conclave elected Cardinal Robert Prevost, who took the name Pope Leo XIV, on May 8, 2025; Luis Antonio Tagle was not elected, so the bet lost.
“I think I'm with Abilene. Feel like Alright. I feel like, a, he's also up there. I think he's, what, 66, 67, number one. Number two, I think if we're talking about and I I I if we're talking about the makeup of the conclave, still heavily European. Yeah. 49%. To them to them, France may be Asia. And what I mean is they could be looking at this as that Asia and Africa might be one step too far. But we get a guy from Marseille, and that is a melting pot, and that he has been a a town in France that has been at the epicenter of what a lot of has been igniting anti immigration sentiment in France and a lot of conflict within the country. As you can see, I'm very well read. And so I think this guy can represent something that is, you know, not 10 degrees off center, but maybe three degrees off center, and to what is ultimately a very conservative body, as no matter how much we talk about liberal, moderate, progressive, and conservative, this is ultimately a very conservative body. I think he represents change given what we've seen so far. If we're playing a guy who's not even on the board, basically, who can reach a plurality of voters, who is moderate but not progressive, can be a little bit different he's not Italian, but he's not African. I think it's him. I would be fine with that. I I got some action down on him.”
The 2025 papal conclave elected Cardinal Robert Prevost, who took the name Pope Leo XIV, on May 8, 2025; Jean-Marc Aveline was not elected, so the bet lost.
“I'm I'm gonna take a position on Boston in the series price, but, that's just following the smart money and the guys I respect.”
The New York Knicks defeated the Boston Celtics 4-2 in the 2025 NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (games May 5-16, 2025), so the Celtics-to-win-the-series bet lost (ESPN Knicks 2025 playoff schedule).
“Cam Ward plus three eighty. Travis Hunter plus seven fifty. I have an immediate opinion. Yeah. I've only made two bets. I immediately you obviously know I love Cam, like Ward. I'm all about Tennessee. I I I grabbed that one immediately. I just think he should be the odds on favorite in my opinion.”
Carolina Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan was named the 2025 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, so Cam Ward's bet to win the award lost.
“The next one might shock a little bit Hampton. I grabbed him for the chargers. I just I love the I love the spot, the opportunity, and the fact that, you know, it's it's never the one they everyone thinks is coming right. There's always sometimes the outside guy, and, this feels like a nice spot for him and our run first type of offense that, you know, if he hits, this could be an absolute mega player for them going forward. Like, he just seems like it's a horrible guy. He he's gonna try to feed this running back. Even though I know they have other guys there, the fact they took him in the first round, that pick that they did, historically, guys taking the first round are usually the guy coming right out. So I I like that I like that value at 14 to one.”
Carolina Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan was named the 2025 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, so Omarion Hampton's bet to win the award lost.
“to me, Chad, just the value, how do you not take Walker? Like, this kid is an absolute stud on a defense that has zero pass rush ability in Atlanta. They're they're one of worst worst DN groups in all of all of the NFL. They're instantly getting a guy who could have been a top 10 pick, ton of raw talent. If he goes in there, he is incredible. Like, I I get why he's at number two. Like, him him being the second odds on favorite ahead of Travis Hunter, to me, that's that's priced right by the sports book. But I think there's still value there. I have a closer plus 500, plus 700, plus $7.50, a couple different books. Well, I'll take that by on Walker.”
Cleveland Browns LB Carson Schwesinger was named the 2025 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, so Jalon Walker's bet to win the award lost.
“Interestingly enough, my top choice, in this year's Kentucky Derby is the number seven Luxor Cafe who is 15 to one. So, you know, trying to continue with that trend.”
Sovereignty won; Luxor Cafe did not win — Sovereignty (post 18) won the 2025 (151st) Kentucky Derby; Luxor Cafe (post 7) did not win, so the outright bet lost (Wikipedia 2025 Kentucky Derby).
“So the way that I'm gonna build my Exacta this year is I'm gonna have the number seven Luxor cafe and the number eight journalism in the first place spot. And then in the second place spot, I'm gonna have the number three, who is final gambit, the number four, who is Rodriguez, the seven Luxor Cafe, the eight journalism, the 10 grande, and the 17 sandman.”
1st Sovereignty (18), 2nd Journalism (8) — The 2025 Kentucky Derby finished Sovereignty (18) 1st, Journalism (8) 2nd, Baeza (21) 3rd, Final Gambit (3) 4th. Since neither Luxor Cafe (7) nor Journalism (8) finished 1st, the exacta requiring 7 or 8 on top lost (Wikipedia 2025 Kentucky Derby).
“So my trifecta ticket is gonna look like this. It's gonna look like $7.08 [38:06] in first. In the second position, it will be 3478910171819.”
1st Sovereignty (18), 2nd Journalism (8), 3rd Baeza (21) — The 2025 Kentucky Derby finished Sovereignty (18) 1st, Journalism (8) 2nd, Baeza (21) 3rd. Since the trifecta required 7 or 8 to finish 1st and Sovereignty (18) won, the trifecta lost (Wikipedia 2025 Kentucky Derby).
“Yeah. And I'll just start at the top by saying that as a fan, I think Patriots fans should know that all fan bases of football want them to have twenty, thirty, forty years of just hell. I want you guys to be terrible. I hope every quarterback you draft is horrible. I just want nothing but bad things for the Patriots. That being said, I love the hire in Vrabel. We both agree. We think Drake May has a ton of upside, a ton of talent. The reason we're betting on them to win this division is because of the year two jump.”
Patriots 14-3 — The New England Patriots won the AFC East with a 14-3 record in the 2025 NFL season (Wikipedia 2025 NFL season final standings).
“They've carried on the legacy of a a great drafting team in Baltimore. So, yeah, Mike Green, major questions. No doubt about the talent. It's all about the person. You know, to them, that that risk was worth it at that position. You know, I'm I'm with you, Chad, the fact that, you know, the them being minus one thirty five, they should be. Like, I have them grade up to minus one fifty in this division. So I have there is value right now on this number if you wanna take it. I've thrown a little bit on them at this number, and we'll talk about the other two in this division, I think, as a chance.”
Steelers 10-7, Ravens 8-9 — The Pittsburgh Steelers won the AFC North (10-7) in the 2025 NFL season; the Baltimore Ravens finished 8-9 and missed the division title (Wikipedia 2025 NFL season final standings).
“And you did see the Jets get better once he did get comfortable as the season went along. So, that's my view of a chat. I'm just I'm betting on Tomlin at an insane number. Like, I have them priced as the second best team in this division. They have them way down there. Plus 500 is a big drop down for this this Pittsburgh team. So I think if Rogers comes back, this immediately jumps to what? Plus 400, plus $3.50. So I'm just trying to get ahead of it. I like the number. I'm gonna I'm gonna back Pittsburgh here.”
Steelers 10-7 — The Pittsburgh Steelers won the AFC North with a 10-7 record in the 2025 NFL season (Wikipedia 2025 NFL season final standings).
“The the hope is obviously Dallas Clark. Like, that's the dream scenario is they get the guy they've been looking for for forever. But, yeah, the fact they went tight end and then went edge, went d back, like, we all like it. You know, this is a team that it all comes down to quarterback position. So Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson, I don't feel like putting any money on them at this point, of the year, but maybe that'll change come August. But we're sitting here right now, Chad. I don't have really confidence to put money on those either quarterback. And you do on the Tennessee titans at eight to one. Let's go. You don't you don't love it. Look at that face. So I'm just curious. I I don't actually have a strong opinion”
Jaguars 13-4, Titans 3-14 — The Jacksonville Jaguars won the AFC South (13-4) in the 2025 NFL season; the Tennessee Titans finished 3-14 (Wikipedia 2025 NFL season final standings).
“it's just like Cleveland. We'll throw a little bet on it just because of the crazy things that have happened. My big, big bet, like, that I'm gonna take a large position on, it's gonna be the Chiefs in this division. Minus one thirty, that's where if you wanna lock up your money now, that's where I would go with it.”
Broncos 14-3, Chiefs 6-11 — The Denver Broncos won the AFC West (14-3) in the 2025 NFL season; the Kansas City Chiefs finished 6-11 (Wikipedia 2025 NFL season final standings).
“[50:33] yeah, for value wise, I wouldn't bet them for this division. I thought it was interesting with the broncos. [50:39] Sean Payton was really vocal all weekend [50:42] defending Shadur Sanders, [50:44] talking about how he knew the family. You know, he had been in Dallas when Shadur was in Texas and, [50:51] has a relationship with them and was truly saying teams are gonna regret passing on Shadur Sanders. He didn't draft Shadore Sanders to be a backup to Bo Knicks at any point no matter how valuable he thought the placement might have be might have been in the draft. They did draft that cornerback from Texas, Baron, who, you know, is crazy fast. [51:11] To me, [51:12] they're more interesting as a play at plus three twenty five [51:16] than the chargers at plus 300 because we saw how good this defense was, and we saw BoNiks get better and better every single week. So now all of a sudden, they've got another weapon in that secondary that makes them that much more challenging [51:32] for a team like Kansas City, [51:34] which has the best quarterback in the NFL. [51:36] Yeah. You're gonna like it even more, Chad. It's plus three seventy five”
Broncos 14-3 — The Denver Broncos won the AFC West with a 14-3 record in the 2025 NFL season (Wikipedia 2025 NFL season final standings).
“How do you feel about the Las Vegas Raiders at 16 to one with Gino Smith and Ashton Genti and Pete Carroll as the head coach? I I'd be tempted to take their over season win total. Tempted. Because I do think there's enough talent with Gino Smith and Brock Bowers and Ashton Genti. They will just be so much better than last year offensively, and the market will keep them being depressed. Well, something really depressing is I got this at 20 to one, and then when they added Gino, it only moved to 16 to one. So it just shows the books just don't respect Gino at all.”
Broncos 14-3, Raiders 3-14 — The Denver Broncos won the AFC West (14-3) in the 2025 NFL season; the Las Vegas Raiders finished 3-14 (Wikipedia 2025 NFL season final standings).
“Genti to be a top five pick. Like, as long as he goes under that six and a half, you know, if he slips past the Raiders,”
Ashton Jeanty was drafted No. 6 overall by the Las Vegas Raiders in the 2025 NFL Draft, inside the under 6.5 line (Wikipedia 2025 NFL Draft round 1 results). (Ashton Jeanty drafted No. 6 overall (Las Vegas Raiders))
“So that tells you what what people think about this quarterback class. Well, Simon, you just said that you're heavily invested in Shadur, top 10. How did you get there? Just because of the numbers. It was, most books yesterday moved to 10 and a half at plus 300. I said, okay. I'll take a position.”
Shedeur Sanders was drafted No. 144 overall (Round 5) by the Cleveland Browns, well outside the under-10.5 line, per his ESPN player profile. (Shedeur Sanders drafted No. 144 overall, Round 5 (Cleveland Browns))
“the Rams, I've taken a position on them to take Sanders at 50 to one because I could see in some crazy world”
Shedeur Sanders was drafted by the Cleveland Browns at No. 144 overall, not the Los Angeles Rams, per his ESPN player profile. (Shedeur Sanders drafted by Cleveland Browns, No. 144 overall)
“Okay. So I we're doing this, you know, all the data drafts, so a bunch of over unders are kind of going crazy. So those are the ones I've been attacking today. So I'll run through some pretty quick. Kelvin Banks Jr. junior over pick seven and a half at even money.”
Kelvin Banks Jr. was drafted No. 9 overall by the New Orleans Saints in the 2025 NFL Draft, after the 7.5 line (Wikipedia 2025 NFL Draft round 1 results). (Kelvin Banks Jr. drafted No. 9 overall (New Orleans Saints))
“Then I got Ted McMillan over pick 12 and a half at plus one sixty.”
Tetairoa McMillan was drafted No. 8 overall by the Carolina Panthers, before the 12.5 line (Wikipedia 2025 NFL Draft round 1 results). (Tetairoa McMillan drafted No. 8 overall (Carolina Panthers))
“So I I think that's great value. Then I got Will Johnson under pick 24 and a half. I think that's that the slide has been too crazy. I mean, he's he was going in the top 10 at some point, so nothing's really changed.”
Will Johnson slid to No. 47 overall (Round 2) to the Arizona Cardinals, past the under-24.5 line (Wikipedia 2025 NFL Draft results). (Will Johnson drafted No. 47 overall, Round 2 (Arizona Cardinals))
“And then Milrow over picked 38 and a half. I mean, we're talking about the the QB two falling out of the first round. I think it's more of a indictment on the whole quarterback class than the fact that, like, Anthony Richardson light is gonna dart up people's draft board. So fading him.”
Jalen Milroe fell to No. 92 overall (Round 3) to the Seattle Seahawks, after the 38.5 line (Wikipedia 2025 NFL Draft results). (Jalen Milroe drafted No. 92 overall, Round 3 (Seattle Seahawks))
“draft board. So fading him. And one more, Ameka Abouka. This this one's probably makes me the most nervous, but overpicked 26 and a half at plus one twenty two or overpicked 29 and a half at plus two fifteen. I just most times I've seen him mocked have been, like, picked thirty, thirty one, 32, or just out of the first round completely because there's still a lot of potential to kinda jockey for that jockeying for position with the quarterback situations, and there's still, I think, more defensive players that there's gonna be runs on positions, you know, like, corner and and address kinda coming to an end where teams are gonna feel comfortable kinda waiting on him. So I like him to not crack the the top 30 either. I think in general, I think I think offensive skill positions”
Emeka Egbuka was drafted No. 19 overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, before the 26.5 line (Wikipedia 2025 NFL Draft round 1 results). (Emeka Egbuka drafted No. 19 overall (Tampa Bay Buccaneers))
“I've been betting SEC players over 14 and a half for a while now. It's under two to one under one to two, so it's minus one ninety five, minus one ninety.”
15 SEC players were selected in Round 1 of the 2025 NFL Draft (LSU, Missouri, Texas x3, Georgia x3, Alabama x2, Ole Miss x2, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Kentucky), clearing the over 14.5 line (Wikipedia 2025 NFL Draft round 1 results). (15 SEC players drafted in Round 1)
“I've been on Kenneth Grant for a long time now. I got him at minus two thirty, minus two fifty.”
Kenneth Grant was drafted No. 13 overall in Round 1 by the Miami Dolphins (Wikipedia 2025 NFL Draft round 1 results). (Kenneth Grant drafted No. 13 overall, Round 1 (Miami Dolphins))
“And the other one I keep betting and listen. I don't know because the odds keep coming down, but I'm still a fan, is Hampton to be the second running back?”
Omarion Hampton was drafted No. 22 overall by the Los Angeles Chargers, the second running back off the board behind only Ashton Jeanty (No. 6, Raiders) — no other RB was taken in between (Wikipedia 2025 NFL Draft round 1 results). (Omarion Hampton drafted No. 22 overall (Los Angeles Chargers), 2nd RB after Ashton Jeanty (No. 6))
“I just most times I've seen him mocked have been, like, picked thirty, thirty one, 32, or just out of the first round completely because there's still a lot of potential to kinda jockey for that jockeying for position with the quarterback situations, and there's still, I think, more defensive players that there's gonna be runs on positions, you know, like, corner and and address kinda coming to an end where teams are gonna feel comfortable kinda waiting on him. So I like him to not crack the the top 30 either.”
Emeka Egbuka was drafted No. 19 overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, before the 29.5 line (Wikipedia 2025 NFL Draft round 1 results). (Emeka Egbuka drafted No. 19 overall (Tampa Bay Buccaneers))
“Tell everybody who those QBs are, and I would assume that means depending on the market, you're gonna be betting over two and a half or under three and a half, quarterbacks in the first round, but explain your positioning on quarterbacks right now. Yeah. I I had dirt going 21 to the Steelers, and it's so, like, you know, you look ten day or, you know, two weeks ago, you know, in in advance of that, I would've I would've said under two and a half quarterbacks. But the way that this theme has gone and and the new whatnot, I I'm going over that for sure.”
Only two quarterbacks were taken in Round 1 of the 2025 NFL Draft, Cam Ward (No. 1, Titans) and Jaxson Dart (No. 25, Giants), so the over 2.5 QBs pick lost (ESPN draft results). (Round 1 QBs: Cam Ward (No. 1, Titans), Jaxson Dart (No. 25, Giants) — 2 total)
“It's it's a done deal, Travis Hunter too? I don't wanna say it's a done deal because in the only because this is betting show. People can bet on this. So right now, understand that. I I yeah. Get the over, it's a good number. Yeah. I get that. But I I would I wouldn't do anything but bet on Travis Hunter.”
Travis Hunter (Colorado) was selected No. 2 overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 2025 NFL Draft, cashing the prop (ESPN draft results). (Travis Hunter selected No. 2 overall by Jacksonville)
“I would take Carter at, What's Carter? Like, minus 300 now?”
Abdul Carter (Penn State) was selected No. 3 overall by the New York Giants in the 2025 NFL Draft, cashing the -300 prop (ESPN draft results). (Abdul Carter selected No. 3 overall by New York Giants)
“And the the Genti, I bet it when you when you talked about he was 20 to one. It's down to 16 to one him to go to the Patriots.”
The Patriots took OT Will Campbell at No. 4; Ashton Jeanty was instead selected No. 6 overall by the Las Vegas Raiders, so the Patriots-draft-Jeanty prop lost (ESPN draft results). (Jeanty selected No. 6 overall by Las Vegas Raiders (Patriots took Will Campbell at No. 4))
“But for me, the two guys at the top of my card, Rory McIlroy, obviously, plus 600 to win, minus one forty to be a top 10.”
Rory McIlroy won the 2025 Masters at -11 (277), beating Justin Rose in a playoff, so the outright futures bet won (ESPN leaderboard).
“And then Justin Thomas. He's 22 to one to win. For me, the the Justin Thomas thing is simple. Four top 15 and tee to green. So tee to green, strokes gained, which is basically just how well you hit the ball until you get to the green. That in the last 36 rounds, he's in the top 15. Birdie or better percentage, he's number one. Par five. So if you guys know anybody, Gustaf, par five, you the the whole rule the rule of thumb is you just let the par fours happen. Let the par threes happen. You get really aggressive on par fives. Really aggressive. Well, guess what? Justin Thomas is number one over the past 36 rounds in par five, strokes gained.”
Rory McIlroy won the 2025 Masters; Justin Thomas finished T36 at +2 (281), so the Justin Thomas outright lost (ESPN leaderboard).
“twenty second around the green. So Lowry is always gonna be my card. And then if I had to give a longer shot in this mid tier, I'm gonna go Seth Straka, who I actually heard Pat Mayo just shouted him out and is on the Straka train. Top five in Tee De Green, Bertie or Betty better top three, par five, top two. Like, Straka is the kind of guy that is if I had to guess, he might be built for this. He might he might be built for this. And, obviously, I don't think he has a ton. He was he was sixteenth in the masters last year looking at it now. Like, I would not be surprised for a Sepp Straka top five, and I'm gonna bet that. Cheng Liao re 35 to one, Strohka 60 to one.”
Rory McIlroy won the 2025 Masters; Shane Lowry finished T42 at +4 (282), so the Shane Lowry outright lost (ESPN leaderboard).
“Like, I would not be surprised for a Sepp Straka top five, and I'm gonna bet that. Cheng Liao re 35 to one, Strohka 60 to one.”
Sepp Straka missed the cut at the 2025 Masters, shooting 78-71 (149, +5), so the top-5 finish prop lost (ESPN leaderboard). (Sepp Straka missed the cut at 149 (+5))
“Kevin said Justin Thomas at 22 to one, I saw you put your head down, and I I feel like you were betting Betting it. Yep. Justin Thomas. As you well, Chad. You know me well.”
Rory McIlroy won the 2025 Masters; Justin Thomas finished T36 at +2 (281), so the Justin Thomas outright lost (ESPN leaderboard).
“I have a Texas Tech future. Bet them they're in the region. On our podcast, we have them to win the final four. I think they're a top five team and fully healthy.”
Texas Tech (3-seed) lost the Elite Eight (regional final) to Florida 84-79, failing to reach the Final Four. Futures bet lost.
“Alright. Everyone make a note. Brett Rooker, Oakland a's. What is he going off at to lead the league in home runs? Because I don't wanna miss that very tangible betting advice. He's about 30 to one. I took 80 to one earlier in the off season.”
Brent Rooker finished 2025 with 30 home runs while Cal Raleigh led MLB with 60; Rooker-to-lead-MLB-in-HR futures bet lost. (Brent Rooker 30 HR (2025); MLB leader Cal Raleigh 60 HR)
“Orvin Carroll, runs leader. It's my favorite player prop to lead the Major League in runs. I made this about nine to one in terms of projecting it out. Model d's, you know, ran it through 10,000 sims. He wins this about 10 to 11% of the time. He was awful at the start of the year last year. I think he came into the season banged up. He still finished fifth in baseball with a 120 run runs scored. He led the league in the second half, and what he started doing in the second half was pulling fly balls in the air. It's the best way to get to your power in baseball. You can find the stat on baseball spot now, pull air percentage. It's a great stat to look at to find guys who are increasing their power, raising that percentage throughout the season. It's very evident Carroll was trying to get some more pulled fly balls later in the year. And because he's so fast, he gets the second or third automatically on those pulled fly balls to right field. So Carroll walks a ton, not a guy you wanna bet for hits later, but he should be on second base basically every time he gets on base because he steals it or because he hits a double down the line. Love him to lead league in runs this year. Bet it at 20 to one. I'd take that at 10 to one or better.”
Corbin Carroll scored 107 runs in 2025, 8th in MLB, while Shohei Ohtani led MLB with 146; Carroll-to-lead-MLB-in-runs futures bet lost. (Corbin Carroll 107 runs (2025, 8th in MLB); MLB leader Shohei Ohtani 146 runs)
“Even if you assume DeGrom gets hurt 70% of the time, He's still a decent bet at four to one to lead the league in strikeouts.”
Jacob deGrom finished 2025 with 185 strikeouts (22nd in MLB) while Garrett Crochet led the AL and MLB with 255; deGrom-to-lead-AL-in-K futures bet lost. (Jacob deGrom 185 K (2025, 22nd in MLB); AL/MLB leader Garrett Crochet 255 K)
“then the the best bet on the board is the Guardians to miss the playoffs. I'm I'm the highest in the market on the Guardians. I'm at minus two forty on them to miss. I'm at 29% for them to make it. Everybody else is at 25% or below. So if, you know, just mathematically, the guardians, it is a massive edge. That's like a 15% edge at minus one forty compared to an average projection of minus two seventy five, minus three seventy five if you throw a mine away. Yeah. That that's definitely worth betting into. I added it back to the action network gap for a third time today. It's the third time I've bet it this offseason. It's still a substantial edge. I bet it at minus one twenty, minus one ten, and now minus one forty.”
The Cleveland Guardians won the 2025 AL Central at 88-74 and made the playoffs; the Guardians-to-MISS-playoffs bet loses.
“The Phillies are one of the best win total under bets on the board in my opinion. Nobody has them higher than 90 wins. I have them at 84.7. The lowest out there aside for me is at 86. But, again, 86 to 90, the average is about 87. You can bet an under 91 and a half.”
The Philadelphia Phillies finished the 2025 regular season 96-66, well over 91.5 wins; the under busts. (Philadelphia Phillies 96-66 (2025 regular season))
“And then Atlanta. You know, Atlanta won 89 games last year without Acuna or Strider for most of the season. They lost Max Fried. They have pitchers who I'm a little bit more confident in replacing lost innings than I think the market is. But across the board, the public projection market views Atlanta as a value bet. The lowest projection on them has them at, like, plus one zero four to win the division. The average projections have them about 60% and minus one fifty, you could still get plus money. I think plus one thirty. I took plus one seventy earlier in the off season.”
The Philadelphia Phillies won the 2025 NL East at 96-66; the Atlanta Braves finished 76-86, 4th place, and missed the playoffs. Braves-to-win-NL-East bet lost.
“I'm kinda down on the Yankees this year. Yankees to miss the playoffs in general. The under now that Garrett Cole's hurt, there's really not a lot of depth on the Yankees.”
The New York Yankees finished 94-68 and made the 2025 playoffs as the AL wild card; the Yankees-to-MISS-playoffs bet loses.
“Logan Gilbert, AL Cy Young. He was the second half strikeout minus walk leader. His velocity increased last year. He changed his pitch mix. Love Gilbert this year.”
Tarik Skubal won the 2025 AL Cy Young Award (his second straight); Logan Gilbert did not win. Futures bet lost.
“Chris Sanchez, AL Cy Young at 51. It seems like a long shot considering he's probably the second or third best pitcher on his team beyond Zach Wheeler.”
Tarik Skubal won the 2025 AL Cy Young Award and Paul Skenes won the 2025 NL Cy Young Award; Cristopher Sanchez won neither. Futures bet lost.
“Memphis is one of my favorite first round bets. They are an underdog in a five twelve game as the five seed that's gonna catch a lot of eyes. But the big thing for me there is Memphis is is poor in predictive analytics because they're terrible against bad teams. Like, they they are the opposite of a computer tricker where when they play somebody they're a 20 favorite against, they win by seven. And when they're a 30 favorite, they win by seven again. Like, they just don't really blow teams out. But if you put a team across from them that they view as their equal and, you know, top 25, top competition, that's when Ganzai or that's when Memphis shines. And I think we'll see that against Colorado State. Maybe a little chip on the shoulder, like, we're underdogs against the 12 seed. After all we did in the nonconference, they played one of the best schedules of anybody in the country, flew all over the country, so I'm not worried about them going all the way across to Seattle for this game. I think it sets up well for for Penny Hardaway to play the disrespect card in the locker room, and and you get a a Memphis win there in the first round.”
70-78 — Colorado State upset Memphis 78-70 in the NCAA Tournament first round; Memphis moneyline loses.
“Two totals I like quite a bit, High Point and Purdue the over. I'm actually surprised this one hasn't gone up from one fifty three and a half.”
63-75 — Purdue beat High Point 75-63, a combined 138 points; the over 153.5 busts.
“I think that's gonna be a real problem, and you just see points back and forth. The other big total I like, Clemson and McNeese, the under in that one. And this one is really tempo based where I think both will slow each other down. They kind of press to slow the game down. Like, Clemson doesn't even try to get steals in their press. They're just, like, making you use the shot clock, get far down into it, and and have to take a tough one with five or ten seconds on the clock. And if you, you know, extrapolate that over the course of a game where both teams are doing that to each other, I think the possession count comes in way under what's projected here in 134 and a half, 134. I've I've taken quite a bit of that as well.”
67-69 — McNeese upset Clemson 69-67, a combined 136 points; the under 134.5 busts.
“So I I laid some three and a half. I think it's more four in the market now, but I I think that's an okay price as well. Saint Mary's.”
59-56 — Saint Mary's beat Vanderbilt 59-56, a 3-point margin; Saint Mary's -3.5 busts.
“First one, UC San Diego, and I know this isn't, you know, a crazy one with the trendy, and it's only plus two and a half. So we're not going nuts with an outright type dog here, but I I just I love this team all season, and I like the matchup.”
65-68 — Michigan beat UC San Diego 68-65; UC San Diego moneyline loses.
“So u c u c San Diego is one there for sure. And then right next to them in the bracket, I like Yale. There's some situational stuff that's that's brutal for them with having played Sunday, and then they have to go and play at Altitude on Thursday in Denver. I don't love that. But the matchup with with Texas A and M doesn't scare me that much. You know, Texas A and M's huge strength getting all over the offensive glass. They try to win the the extras, win the possession battle, and Yale can compete there. It's a really good defensive rebounding team.”
71-80 — Texas A&M beat Yale 80-71; Yale moneyline loses.
“I'm going with Texas Tech, and maybe there's some stubbornness for me here because I picked them to the final four in the preseason when they were, like, barely a top 25 team, and now they're sitting here seventh and Ken Pound.”
Texas Tech (3-seed) lost the Elite Eight to Florida 84-79; Florida went on to win the 2025 national championship. Futures bet lost.
“And, you know, a week ago, I gave out, I love the Rams, 28 to one.”
Rams lost the NFC Championship 31-27 to Seattle; the Seahawks then beat the Patriots 29-13 in Super Bowl LX (Feb 8, 2026). Rams-to-win-Super-Bowl futures bet lost.
“I may or may not have bet on the Bears to win the Super Bowl. I'm just saying, Simon”
The Bears (11-6) lost 20-17 in OT to the Rams in the Divisional round on January 18, 2026, and the Seahawks went on to win Super Bowl LX, so the Bears futures bet lost (ESPN).
“This one is such a toss-up, but I am gonna go with Mikey Madison.”
Mikey Madison won Best Actress for Anora at the 97th Academy Awards on March 2, 2025, so the bet cashed (Wikipedia, 97th Academy Awards).
“even if it like you just said, it's career. Right? It's not just we know that it's that part of the game. Right? It's not just for the one movie they've done. It's for their body of work. And like you said, she knows a lot of these people in this business better than, you know, unfortunately for Mickey, but I'm I'm gonna be betting here on the dog. So I already know where I'm going. I mean, I get it. Demi should be minus 300, but you know me, Chad. I like the dog. I like the upside, the value here”
Mikey Madison won Best Actress for Anora at the 97th Academy Awards on March 2, 2025, so the bet cashed (Wikipedia, 97th Academy Awards).
“But going back up to best picture, I mean, I still will go with Anora because I'm just gonna go with the momentum.”
Anora won Best Picture at the 97th Academy Awards on March 2, 2025, so the bet cashed (Wikipedia, 97th Academy Awards).
“I wanna take Chalamet here.”
Adrien Brody won Best Actor for The Brutalist at the 97th Academy Awards, so the Timothee Chalamet bet lost (Wikipedia, 97th Academy Awards).
“Best supporting actress. The of these are locked. I mean, not to you know, they're locked. Zoe Zoe Zoe Zoe Zoe Zoe controversy did not affect her on any level for the obvious reasons of she's great in the movie. She's beloved in the business. It's kinda a weak category this year, and people are not that, you know, mean. They're not gonna, like, hold that against her. She's she's getting up there. And she has played her press and speeches post the controversy perfectly. She's she's winning. She was so good in that movie. Yeah. The way she danced, that that scene When they're at that dinner, you know, there's thousands of people there, and she is dancing in the middle of the tables. Like, her movement is great. Her voice is amazing. She speaks Spanish so much in the movie. Like, she was tremendous. This is a no brainer. Lock it in. She's minus 3,000.”
Zoe Saldana won Best Supporting Actress for Emilia Perez at the 97th Academy Awards on March 2, 2025, so the bet cashed (Wikipedia, 97th Academy Awards).
“one of my favorite bets is the Green Bay packers. You can get them 25 to one.”
The Packers (9-7-1) lost the Wild Card round 31-27 to the Bears on January 10, 2026, and Seattle beat New England 29-13 to win Super Bowl LX, so the Green Bay futures bet lost (ESPN).
“I did bet the niners 17 to one.”
The 49ers were eliminated 41-6 by Seattle in the Divisional round on January 17, 2026, and the Seahawks went on to win Super Bowl LX 29-13, so the San Francisco futures bet lost (ESPN).
“The chiefs defense to score touchdown in a chiefs win is plus nine fifty,”
PHI 40-22 KC — The Chiefs lost Super Bowl LIX 22-40, so a Chiefs defensive touchdown in a Chiefs win could not occur (ESPN box score).
“So over five and a half reception, there's still plus money for Xavier Worthy. That's gone up in the playoffs, but I think it's still a good price.”
Xavier Worthy caught 8 passes in Super Bowl LIX, clearing the over-5.5 receptions line (ESPN box score). (Xavier Worthy: 8 receptions (line 5.5))
“So I I love Xavier Worthy in this game. Last five games, he's averaging 6.4 catches a game. He's averaging 46 yards after the catch. So I don't necessarily want to go yards here, but I think big plays, a chance to get into the end zone, get that touchdown. I love the anytime touchdown bet for the last five. We know he's gonna run the ball a time or two.”
Xavier Worthy caught two touchdown passes in Super Bowl LIX, cashing the anytime-touchdown bet (ESPN box score). (Xavier Worthy: 2 receiving touchdowns)
“the way I would bet MVP here, even though I'm betting Chiefs win the Super Bowl, I think Jalen Hurts MVP is the right play. And I think it's actually a great way to invest in the Philly and sort of hedge against my Kansas City bet because I think the Chiefs win the Super Bowl because of Jalen Hurts. But if I'm wrong about the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, I also think it'll be because of Jalen Hurts. I think it'll be because Hurts did the the tush push, got the touchdowns, got the scrambles. I think because he did what he did last time in the Super Bowl, frankly, he would've won MVP clearly if they won that game. Oh, yeah. He showed up as a passer. He was plus one forty in the Super Bowl last time. Now he's plus three eighty.”
Jalen Hurts was named Super Bowl LIX MVP after the Eagles' 40-22 win, cashing the +380 ticket (ESPN recap).
“20 to one niners is my first Super Bowl pick for next season.”
San Francisco went 12-5 and made the playoffs but was routed 41-6 by Seattle in the NFC Divisional round, ending the 49ers' run before this next-season Super Bowl futures ticket could cash (ESPN schedule); Seattle went on to win Super Bowl LX 29-13 over New England.
“This week, I personally parlayed Xavier Worthy under five and a half receptions and Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown. Thanks to doctor Nick Giffin. That was, four to one.”
Xavier Worthy caught 8 passes in Super Bowl LIX, well over the 5.5-reception leg of the parlay, so the SGP lost regardless of the touchdown leg (ESPN box score). (Xavier Worthy: 8 receptions (leg line 5.5, under leg lost))
“My favorite one is definitely both teams have successful fourth down. Convent like, so, basically, you need the eagles convert a fourth down, chiefs convert a fourth down. Both these teams, I feel like, are gonna go for higher risk. Like, they know what's at stake here, especially has heard all week about that Punt he did take the last time they played and not going for it on fourth down. No chance he doesn't go for it. It was minus one twenty when I told you this morning, Chad. It's already up to minus one twenty five.”
Both teams failed on their only fourth-down attempt in Super Bowl LIX (Eagles 0-for-1, Chiefs 0-for-1), so the both-teams-convert prop lost (ESPN game page). (4th-down conversions: Eagles 0-for-1, Chiefs 0-for-1)
“I've made this bet. This is another number that's moving. The Chiefs were the Eagles were Eagles win first half, Chiefs to win the game was plus three six fifty on bet three six five. It's down to plus five fifty now.”
PHI 40-22 KC — The Eagles led 24-0 at halftime and also won the game 40-22, so the Eagles-1H/Chiefs-game double lost (ESPN game page).
“I am heavily invested in the Chiefs money line.”
PHI 40-22 KC — Eagles beat Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX; Kansas City lost outright, busting the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“same goes for that under. Like, I wanted to give out the under here on the show today. Still gonna do it. We've seen that 49 and a half just disappear. Like, I've been looking all across every book. It's gone totally. The highest you can get now is 49, which is still good value.”
PHI 40-22 KC — Super Bowl LIX finished 40-22 for a combined 62 points, busting the under-49 total (ESPN box score).
“First to 20 yards in the game, Kareem Hunt is plus four fifty, which I think is intriguing.”
Kareem Hunt gained only 9 rushing yards on 3 carries in Super Bowl LIX and never reached 20, so first-to-20-rushing-yards lost (ESPN box score). (Kareem Hunt: 3 carries, 9 rushing yards)
“So two touchdowns at 10 to one is my other bet with Kareem Hunt.”
Kareem Hunt scored zero touchdowns in Super Bowl LIX, far short of the two-touchdown prop (ESPN box score). (Kareem Hunt: 0 touchdowns (line 2))
“like, about two days ago. It's now up to minus one fifty for him to have the longest rush attempt in the game. So even if Kansas City bottles him up and has, eight man boxes where he can struggle, the options for him to stay atop this market, I just think are aplenty. I'll just regular season, he was eleven and five for just Philly in terms of having the longest rush in their games and ten and six in the game itself. Two and one in the playoffs are having the longest rush. And then if you just look at Philly's part of the field because Kansas City really struggles in that second level yards and open field yards. Like, they get small chunks, which I think helps play to this. If you look at Philly had 90 plays at 10 plus yards on the ground this year. 36, everyone else but Saquon, 54 for Saquon. So I just feel like there's so many outs here. I I I still like it in the minus one fifty range.”
Jalen Hurts had the game's longest run at 17 yards, topping Saquon Barkley's longest carry of 10 yards, so Barkley did not have the longest rush (ESPN box score). (Longest rush: Jalen Hurts 17 yds vs Saquon Barkley 10 yds)
“which is a little bit contradicting, but I heard you guys say you like Saquon under his full game prop. I think a more interesting one is first half. It's 58 and a half. In the first half this season, he has 11 rushes of 13 plus yards. Four of those 11 came just versus Washington. So to me, I think this line is just a little bit inflated, and I think we're getting a good price considering also he is a second half monster. Most carry, most rushing yards, most 10 plus yards, all in the second half. And Casey, not lately, they've been struggling with explosive runs lately, but only allowed 42 of at least 10 yards, which is the fourth fewest in the NFL all year. So I do believe Spags is gonna focus on him, which is gonna help that early bet. And then I think he finds some longer runs to cash our first bet in the second half. It's it's really going between two bets, but I kinda like the value on both.”
Saquon Barkley finished Super Bowl LIX with only 57 rushing yards for the entire game, so his first-half total was necessarily under the 58.5 line (ESPN box score). (Saquon Barkley: 57 rushing yards for the full game (line 58.5 first-half))
“really helped Casey get back in the game last time. So I feel like Casey has had nine first quarter drives in the Super Bowl, five punts, two touchdowns, one field goal, and a missed field goal. And the thing that I think is actually interesting, Philly trailing this year actually happened less plays than Kansas City. When they run no huddle, second highest rate in the NFL behind the commanders, and they still run it at the highest rate in the NFL they're behind. So I I kind of feel like Casey wins the first half. Philly wins the full game is seven or eight to one depending on the book. While that same bet, if you flip it, is six to one, even five fifty for Kansas City. So I know everyone likes Kansas City to win the game, but I do feel like a strong Kansas City start, which has been different than we've seen before, and Philly figuring it out in the second half because think about this. Eagles have a rock bottom 40% pass rate when leading by at least a score. It jumps to 58 when trailing. So I do feel like they're gonna run the ball when they're trailing and even pass it even more and get back in the game. So I kinda like that price. It's between seven and eight to one.”
PHI 40-22 KC — The Chiefs trailed 0-24 at halftime and never won the first half, so the Chiefs-1H/Eagles-game double lost (ESPN game page).
“we're gonna go with field goals over one and a half for Kansas City at minus one twenty five. I would bet this up to about minus one fifty. So I think that the chiefs are gonna struggle in a red zone.”
Kansas City made zero field goals in Super Bowl LIX, so the team field-goals-over-1.5 prop lost (ESPN game page). (Kansas City Chiefs: 0 field goals made (line 1.5))
“It's Saquon, Barkley to have the most rushing attempts in the game at minus three fifty.”
Saquon Barkley carried 25 times in Super Bowl LIX, easily the most rushing attempts of any player in the game (ESPN box score). (Saquon Barkley: 25 rushing attempts (game high))
“Alright. So speaking of which, I'm going with both teams combined rushing yardage under 285 and a half. You can get that at minus one fifteen at bet three six five. I think this is way too high. I have these teams projected to combine for just under 260”
Team rushing totals in Super Bowl LIX were Eagles 135 and Chiefs 49, a combined 184 yards, well under the 285.5 line (ESPN box score). (Eagles 135 rush yds + Chiefs 49 rush yds = 184 total (line 285.5))
“and we're getting 16 to one on this. This is offering too much value. It's also a fun sweat too. I mean, who knows when the first SAC's gonna be, but this is a market I haven't bet on before. I haven't even seen a price for this yet. But, yeah. Sixteen o one, Nolan Smith, sign me up for that.”
Eagles LB Josh Sweat recorded the first sack of Super Bowl LIX, not Nolan Smith, so the +1600 ticket lost (ESPN recap).
“Will any player have a 100 plus rushing yards? I'm gonna go with no at plus two ten.”
No player topped 100 rushing yards in Super Bowl LIX; Jalen Hurts led all rushers with 72 yards (ESPN box score). (Top rusher: Jalen Hurts 11 car, 72 yds (no player over 100))
“give you under two and a half combined passing touchdowns at plus one fifty.”
Patrick Mahomes threw 3 passing TDs and Jalen Hurts threw 2 for a combined 5 in Super Bowl LIX, busting the under-2.5 (ESPN box score). (Mahomes 3 passing TDs + Hurts 2 passing TDs = 5 total (line 2.5))
“at the end of the day, I I trust bags, and I trust Mahomes. So rolling with the chiefs minus one and a half.”
PHI 40-22 KC — Eagles beat Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX; Kansas City lost by 18, busting the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So one of my favorite bets that correlates with this is eagles over one and a half rushing touchdowns. It's minus one thirty a lot of books. I'm seeing bet three six five is already up to minus one forty. I still love that price for that prop just because I think eagles you've seen it time and time again. Like, it can be second and eight, third and eight, and the eagles are running on that down. If they can just get it to two yards, and they usually think the defense will drop back. So I think there's a lot of opportunity playing that. I I agree with Chris that, you know, both these teams, they do get down there, they do play conservative. Like, they just don't wanna turn the ball over. That's just both been their MO because they just believe in both their defenses. So, I do love this play, and there's a lot of ways to correlate it with a lot of other props.”
The Eagles scored just one rushing touchdown in Super Bowl LIX (Jalen Hurts' 1-yard tush-push), short of the over-1.5 line (ESPN box score). (Eagles rushing touchdowns: 1 (Hurts) — line 1.5)
“I bet this as soon as it opened at Kansas City minus one and a half and Kansas City on the money line at minus $1.20.”
PHI 40-22 KC — Eagles beat Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX; Kansas City lost by 18, busting the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I bet this as soon as it opened at Kansas City minus one and a half and Kansas City on the money line at minus $1.20. Simon, Simon, I'm making Kansas City on the money line my exact decision.”
PHI 40-22 KC — Eagles beat Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX; Kansas City lost outright, busting the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“Simon says, give me give me Chiefs minus one and a half.”
PHI 40-22 KC — Eagles beat Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX; Kansas City lost by 18, busting the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Chad, I don't know if you wanna give me my favorite player prop, but I'm kinda hitting at it. It's Patrick Mahomes under 36 and a half passing attempts. You can get it minus one nineteen, I think, is the best out there.”
Patrick Mahomes went 21-of-32 passing in Super Bowl LIX, staying under the 36.5 attempts line (ESPN box score). (Patrick Mahomes: 32 pass attempts (line 36.5))
“Well, that's the only prop I've got so far. I did bet yesterday a Xavier worthy SGP. I took his under five and a half receptions, and I parlayed it with his touchdown.”
Xavier Worthy caught 8 passes in Super Bowl LIX, well over the 5.5-reception leg of the parlay, so the SGP lost regardless of the touchdown leg (ESPN box score). (Xavier Worthy: 8 receptions (leg line 5.5, under leg lost))
“The the the look ahead lines for the chiefs and the eagles is one and a half one and a half. Kansas City minus one and a half. That is what it opened at. As I said, this thing was moving before we even came out in the air. I I bet it at one and a half.”
PHI 40-22 KC — Eagles beat Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX; Kansas City lost by 18, busting the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I also bet the chiefs on the money line at minus one twenty.”
PHI 40-22 KC — Eagles beat Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX; Kansas City lost outright, busting the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“you know, I get why they love the Bills. I get why they love Commanders. It's a coin flip type of game, but I do think their numbers have overrated both those sides. So, yeah, I'm looking forward to diving into these games even more, Chad, because it does seem like, you know, coming into it, I was a little nervous on our positions. You know, me and Chad don't love betting favorites, especially chalk favorites. Not chalk favorites in this spot. We are definitely taking shockingly the underdog kind of favorites in this spot of everyone's backing the dogs on the road, and we are actually the ones going off trail here and taking their home favorites, which is pretty shocking position to be in. Alright. I love it. That is a great tee up for what we're gonna talk about because it's Washington at Philadelphia. The number at bet three six five is minus six. The total is”
55-23 — Eagles beat Commanders 55-23 in the NFC Championship, margin +32 covers -6 (ESPN team schedule).
“I have moved to the over. Originally, I like the under in this matchup. I have flipped to the over, and just because the number has moved too much, and I I basically have this total of 48 and a half.”
55-23 — Combined score 78 (55+23) clears Over 47.5 in the NFC Championship (ESPN team schedule).
“Kansas City minus one and a half. The total's 47 and a half. This was Simon Says.”
32-29 — Chiefs beat Bills 32-29 in the AFC Championship, margin +3 covers -1.5 (ESPN team schedule).
“I believe Chiefs are Chiefs under is still 47 and a half. Yeah. Still like the value there. Still would take that under,”
32-29 — Combined score 61 (32+29) tops Under 47.5 in the AFC Championship; busts (ESPN team schedule).
“Simon says, give me the Chiefs minus one and a half.”
32-29 — Chiefs beat Bills 32-29 in the AFC Championship, margin +3 covers -1.5 (ESPN team schedule).
“If you wanna grab eagles now just in case the line does move. I think you did. Right, Chad? Yeah. I took the four and a half.”
55-23 — Eagles beat Commanders 55-23 in the NFC Championship, margin +32 covers -4.5 (ESPN team schedule).
“I immediately bet the Chiefs at one and a half.”
32-29 — Chiefs beat Bills 32-29 in the AFC Championship, margin +3 covers -1.5 (ESPN team schedule).
“They're they're giving you the one and a half hook right here. So, yeah, early bets. I'm with Chad. I'm I'm taking chiefs right now.”
32-29 — Chiefs beat Bills 32-29 in the AFC Championship, margin +3 covers -1.5 (ESPN team schedule).
“as an underdog period, as a favorite of less than three. Line when they last played in Buffalo was two and a half, by the way. Buffalo. What do you think of this total before we hop off? Did you look at it? I haven't even looked at it yet. 48 and a half. Feels high. Crazy high for Arrowhead. Feels really high for Arrowhead. And two running teams. In January, and two running teams. Let's let's be real. These two quarterbacks, they barely got to 52 Yeah. In this Buffalo Baltimore game. And Baltimore has had a much more explosive offense than Kansas City all year long. That's interesting. Yeah. That it definitely was, like, the first thing it jumped out. I mean, as much as I obviously jumped on the chiefs number, yeah, that that was just something that jumped out where it's like a a key number of 40 and a half. I'm just gonna take the under now, and then we'll see where the market goes.”
32-29 — Combined score 61 (32+29) tops Under 48.5 in the AFC Championship; busts (ESPN team schedule).
“I did bet the chiefs. I moved it down to two and a half, and I moved the bills up to seven and a half. So you can see it in the app. I've got a teaser on the bills at minus two and a half bills plus seven and a half, chiefs minus two and a half.”
Parlay cashes: Chiefs beat Texans 23-14 (cover -2.5, margin +9) and Bills beat Ravens 27-25 (cover +7.5, margin +2); both legs won (ESPN team schedules).
“And, you know, like I said, I I've I've taken the plus nine and a half, and I've thrown a little bet, just a little bet on the money line here.”
45-31 — Commanders beat Lions 45-31, margin +14 covers +9.5 (ESPN team schedule).
“Obviously, love the commanders. And, you know, like I said, I I've I've taken the plus nine and a half, and I've thrown a little bet, just a little bet on the money line here. It's just something I have to do where I you know, this this is the only real dog in this this matchup that I actually believe in that can pull off the upset.”
45-31 — Commanders won 45-31 outright at Detroit; moneyline cashes (ESPN team schedule).
“Yeah. And it's a over I'm betting knowing that it's gonna come down to a handful of fourth down plays. Like, these two coaches don't shy away from who they are, and we've seen it time and time again. Like, the lions games that do go under, it's when they do struggle on fourth down and golf turns a ball over a lot. And, you know, as much as you like to bash their defense in those games where golf struggles, this season, their defense has stepped up. So I do get where your hesitation comes from this over. I mean, it's an insanely high total. It's 55 and a half. So I totally get where you're coming from on that one. But,”
45-31 — Combined score 76 (45+31) clears Over 55.5 (ESPN team schedule).
“Love the Eagles, especially even at minus six, and love that under in that Bills Raven game.”
28-22 — Eagles beat Rams 28-22, margin +6 exactly matches the -6 line; pushes (ESPN team schedule).
“The LA rams at Philadelphia, eagles are minus six. The total is 44. It's gone up a little bit. This was my exact decision.”
28-22 — Eagles beat Rams 28-22, margin +6 exactly matches the -6 line; pushes (ESPN team schedule).
“51 and a half is a key number. Like, if you go mathematically how often that lands on 51, you're still getting great value right now taking this under a 51 and a half.”
27-25 — Bills beat Ravens 27-25, combined 52 tops Under 51.5; busts (ESPN team schedule).
“Yes. Simon says, give me Washington plus nine and a half, Chad. When Simon says do it, we do what Simon says.”
WSH 45, DET 31 — Commanders beat Lions 45-31 on the road; Commanders +9.5 covers by outright win of 14 (ESPN).
“I actually like the over two in this game. It's 55. It's a huge over.”
WSH 45, DET 31 — Commanders beat Lions 45-31, combined 76; over 55.5 covers (ESPN).
“So, yeah, I'm with Chad here. I love this Eagles. I honestly would bet it up to seven. So even if you're like, my only book is only showing six and a half, I still would take that number.”
PHI 28, LAR 22 — Eagles beat Rams 28-22; Eagles -6 pushes exactly (ESPN).
“Really tough game. What do you think of the total? The total right now is, 51 and a half. Feels high to me. I know. Under. So I I don't wanna give it away, but once again, I'm on three unders and one over. So, yeah, last week, I couldn't find an over I liked. Even even though Chad almost scared me off my Rams back because the luck I did. Luck over. But Yeah. Once once we got so many unders, I was like, no. This everyone's just so tight right now in the playoffs, and teams are just not forcing the ball. And I feel like the refs have been calling a lot of penalties. I don't know about you, but it feels like the refs too have been more involved in a lot of call like, not not just holds, but a lot of stuff's making the offenses kind of stagnate. That's that feels like we've had that up with a bunch of games so far. So, yeah, this I I could I know it sounds stupid because I'm betting over a 55 and a half, but this one, fifty one and a half. I have this at 48 and a half. So I think there's a ton of value on the under here, especially with these two teams that, you know, it's gonna be cold as hell up in Buffalo, Chad.”
BUF 27, BAL 25 — Bills beat Ravens 27-25, combined 52; under 51.5 loses (ESPN).
“Yeah. So we're on the Bucks tonight, minus three.”
TB 20, WSH 23 — Commanders beat Buccaneers 23-20; Buccaneers -3 loses (they lost outright) (ESPN).
“Let's start with that Chargers game. Right now, the number of bet three six five is charters minus three. The total is 42 and a half. There is a two and a half out there. It is available. I've hit the two and a half a couple times. I know, Simon, you've probably hit it more. This was my exact decision.”
HOU 32, LAC 12 — Texans beat Chargers 32-12; Chargers -2.5 loses by 20 (ESPN).
“we've been trioking all season how important two and a half is, yes, that's gonna hurt. But I have to trust the number here and think me me and you are getting a really good number. And, if you're like me and you're kind of feeling like a little bit of a coward with this one just because the pros are so heavy on Houston, tease it through zero. Like, if you're getting charges three and a half, there's no scenario no scenario I see Houston winning by more than three if they do win this. Like, that to me is by far the safest bet, but they like to be a risk taker, which me and Chad are. I I don't know how you don't take this charges number here.”
HOU 32, LAC 12 — Texans beat Chargers 32-12; Chargers -2.5 loses by 20 (ESPN).
“I I love the under as well. Like, this is, to me, another play on this game where it's like, that's way too high of a total. I got it at 41. It was 43 and a half. It's been bet down to 42 and a half. Still, that's a key number. You're still getting great value on this number. So this is there's a couple games I like to enter in. This is towards the top of my list. I really love this under.”
HOU 32, LAC 12 — Texans beat Chargers 32-12, combined 44; under 42.5 loses (ESPN).
“I'm still good with the Steelers here at 10.”
BAL 28, PIT 14 — Ravens beat Steelers 28-14; Steelers +10 loses by 4 (ESPN).
“I'm betting their money line, but to me, the the smart safe bet here is taking the plus 10 if you can still get it on the Pittsburgh team.”
BAL 28, PIT 14 — Ravens beat Steelers 28-14; Steelers +10 loses by 4 (ESPN).
“Denver at Buffalo. Buffalo is now a nine point favorite. This was a and the total's 47. This was a stubborn, stubborn eight and a half. One of the lines that barely budged during the week, it moved to nine, I think, this morning at Bed 365. So much freaking love for Boonex, so much fear of Sean Payton, and what they can scheme against the Bills defense that has struggled late in the year. Buffalo thirtieth in EPA per pass allowed since week nine thirty second in passing success rate. I don't know. It's not like the bronco's defense is impervious to criticism. Josh Allen has dominated man coverage, which is what the broncos play. Boenix has been much worse against zone than against man, which is what the bills predominantly play. I still like the Bills here.”
BUF 31, DEN 7 — Bills beat Broncos 31-7; Bills -9 covers by 15 (ESPN).
“But, yeah, for my biggest bet to this game, it's not even close. Like, I'm heavily invested in this Eagles team at three and a half, at four, at four and a half. Still been betting it even today. I bet it again when I got up this morning, and,”
PHI 22, GB 10 — Eagles beat Packers 22-10; Eagles -4.5 covers by 7.5 (ESPN).
“for my biggest bet to this game, it's not even close. Like, I'm heavily invested in this Eagles team at three and a half, at four, at four and a half.”
PHI 22, GB 10 — Eagles beat Packers 22-10; Eagles -4.5 covers by 7.5 (ESPN).
“let me fade this overhyped commanders team and take this Bucks team at minus three.”
TB 20, WSH 23 — Commanders beat Buccaneers 23-20; Buccaneers -3 loses (they lost outright) (ESPN).
“The total at 50 and a half, I like the under two.”
TB 20, WSH 23 — Commanders beat Buccaneers 23-20, combined 43; under 50.5 covers (ESPN).
“[1:03:24] I don't mind the under here at all either. 50 and a half especially feels extraordinarily [1:03:29] high. And we've seen it though that, like, even the Cowboys, you can say, is not that good of a run team. [1:03:35] They were pretty much running it down, this commander's team through. And, you know, Bijan Robinson, just a week before that, having his way. Saquon having his way. So, you know, I know Bucky Irving is not putting the same sentence as those other guys for [1:03:49] I get it. You know, he's the kinda new to the league, and he's he's not that type of talent. But if you really break down the numbers and look at what Bucky's done this season, he is a top 10 running back in my opinion. Like, this guy is a workhorse, and that to me is going to be the game plan for for the Bucks. Like, for everything I read from their beat writers and, you know, I wish I had sourced on the inside. I unfortunately don't. I don't really have any connections down there in Tampa, but it feels like the way guys are talking about it. It's, like, going to be a heavy bucket Irving game, and they're gonna lean on that run just keeping the ball at Jay and Daniel's hands. So, and what you just talked about, they need to protect Baker from himself sometimes. Right? Like, Baker can't help himself with turnover. You just can't have those stupid turnovers in the playoffs. Like, that's gonna cost you. So that's another reason why I like this under so much is it just feels like it's going to be a run heavy game from this Bucks team.”
TB 20, WSH 23 — Commanders beat Buccaneers 23-20, combined 43; under 50.5 covers (ESPN).
“to me, this is really about trusting the numbers and the trends that everything points to this Rams team, and you're still getting great value as them as a dog. Like, I have them as over a one point favorite. We're still getting plus one and a half at a couple books out there. And I know it doesn't sound like a big deal, but every point matters in the playoffs. It is a big deal. So, yeah, to me, plus one and a half, I still love the value on this Rams team.”
LAR 27, MIN 9 — Rams beat Vikings 27-9; Rams +1.5 covers by 19.5 (ESPN).
“Total is 48. I think at the end of the day, we don't like to bet against Matthew Stafford. We're getting him at a dog at home as a dog at home. Yeah. And it's another game that I've I've taken the under on.”
LAR 27, MIN 9 — Rams beat Vikings 27-9, combined 36; under 48 covers (ESPN).
“I went I went through the zero, took the charge off the plus three and a half, and, yeah, Bill's down to two and a half. It just feels like that's a gift. So, yeah, those those are definitely my biggest bets right now.”
HOU 32, LAC 12; LAR 27, MIN 9; BUF 31, DEN 7 — Chargers were blown out 32-12 by the Texans, busting the teased Chargers +3.5 leg and sinking the three-team teaser even though the Rams (+7.5, won 27-9) and Bills (-2.5, won 31-7) legs cashed (ESPN).
“I did bet it at two and a half. I bet the chargers. It's at three.”
HOU 32, LAC 12 — Texans beat Chargers 32-12; Chargers -2.5 loses by 20 (ESPN).
“Isn't it crazy that the Steelers are 10 underdogs? It's like, isn't this the ultimate overreaction? I rolled over, opened up the action app. I used quick slip, by the way, and I bet the steel is a plus 10.”
BAL 28, PIT 14 — Ravens beat Steelers 28-14; Steelers +10 loses by 4 (ESPN).
“yeah, Simon says, give me Pittsburgh plus 10 shots.”
BAL 28, PIT 14 — Ravens beat Steelers 28-14; Steelers +10 loses by 4 (ESPN).
“On Sunday night, we felt so locked in on the bills. I bet him 7 and a half.”
BUF 31, DEN 7 — Bills beat Broncos 31-7; Bills -7.5 covers by 16.5 (ESPN).
“got got more Pittsburgh down at Pittsburgh plus 10, got more Philly down at minus four.”
PHI 22, GB 10 — Eagles beat Packers 22-10; Eagles -4 covers by 8 (ESPN).
“That's it. Alright. Wildcard lines. The one NFC line that we have so far, Green Bay plus three and a half at Philly, your first instinct. I mean, they're basically begging you to take Green Bay, and I'm gonna throw quick quick penny on the Eagles right there. It was three.”
GB 10, PHI 22 — Eagles beat Packers 22-10, a 12-point margin that covers -3 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Still happy to take the three and a half. I can just see this going up, especially if the injury news does come out. This is gonna get up to what? Six or seven, Chad? Yeah. My first instinct on this was we're betting the Eagles. Like, I just I keep thinking about this defense.”
GB 10, PHI 22 — Eagles beat Packers 22-10, a 12-point margin that covers -3.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Denver broncos, speaking of a seven seed and a two seed and an eight point line, broncos are eight and a half on the road at Buffalo. Give me Buffalo.”
DEN 7, BUF 31 — Bills beat Broncos 31-7, a 24-point margin that covers -8.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Maybe it'll be Chad's on the Bills, but opening line here minus seven and a half. I gotta take that with this Bills team.”
DEN 7, BUF 31 — Bills beat Broncos 31-7, a 24-point margin that covers -7.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Kansas City, plus 10 and a half at Denver. It got up to 11 on Wednesday. There was a little bit of buyback. We're on the Chiefs here.”
DEN 38, KC 0 — Chiefs lost to Broncos 0-38; Kansas City +10.5 does not cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“Take that best team. Like, I I'm with them. Like, it's very caveman, very simple. Don't overthink this one. Just take the points with this”
DEN 38, KC 0 — Chiefs lost to Broncos 0-38; Kansas City +10.5 does not cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“One more one more game for Dougie. Give him give me plus four and a half on this Jaguars team.”
IND 26, JAX 23 — Jaguars lost to Colts 23-26 (OT) by 3, within Jacksonville +4.5; covers (ESPN scoreboard).
“you know, four and a half, four, way too many points for us to pass on. Like, I I love this number. I love this Jags team”
IND 26, JAX 23 — Jaguars lost to Colts 23-26 (OT) by 3, within Jacksonville +4.5; covers (ESPN scoreboard).
“Giants just popped back up to plus three at a couple pub really public books. So some smart money now has come in on the Eagles here this morning, which is pretty surprising, but nothing changed in my position.”
PHI 20, NYG 13 — Giants lost to Eagles 13-20; New York +3 does not cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“Look. Carolina plus eight. We both love the panthers on Tuesday. I would imagine we still love the panthers. The lines move from eight and a half to eight. We cannot quit the panthers right now, Simon, to remind people of the stakes.”
ATL 38, CAR 44 — Panthers beat Falcons 44-38 (OT), covering Carolina +8 with an outright win (ESPN scoreboard).
“Look. Carolina plus eight. We both love the panthers on Tuesday.”
ATL 38, CAR 44 — Panthers beat Falcons 44-38 (OT), covering Carolina +8 with an outright win (ESPN scoreboard).
“I just I just think it lines up perfectly as Minnesota team. So, yeah, I'm clearly, I'm pocket committed. I I love them at plus three Minnesota.”
DET 31, MIN 9 — Vikings lost to Lions 9-31; Minnesota +3 does not cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“at this week. Would they consider going back to him? Is he gonna practice? You know, I wanna see how that goes before we got deep into this game. Yeah. No bet for me yet. Yeah. No bet. Cincy and Pittsburgh. This one is is, you know, racked with all sorts of circumstances. Right? We've been Cincy on Tuesday night when it was two and a half. It's moved in the opposite direction. So people are buying into the idea that what you said on Sunday night, could this be a get right game for Russell Wilson? Do you back Mike Tomlin in the rah rah spot where he's twenty two and sixteen straight up as an underdog versus a divisional opponent, twenty six ten and two against the spread as an underdog against a divisional opponent. We'll know something at this point. You know, the the NFL is like the WWE. Right? They have set this up, so it's all TV drama. The Steelers will know their circumstances. They'll know if they've got a shot to win the division or if they're gonna move down. They do have some motivation. They could still move down further in the playoff seedings if they lose this game. So I don't think they're gonna come out and rest starters even if the Ravens win the game. That's fair. To me, that would be a mistake. I I think they should, but, obviously, I'm I'm a degenerate gambler, and I have money invested already in the Bengals, and I love the Bengals.”
PIT 17, CIN 19 — Bengals beat Steelers 19-17, only a 2-point margin, which falls short of the -2.5 line; does not cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“yeah, it's no. They it's they moved it to one and a half now. I can't help it. I gotta bet, Sensei.”
PIT 17, CIN 19 — Bengals beat Steelers 19-17, a 2-point margin that covers -1.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“we were on the air midway through the show, Tennessee was a four and a half point favorite. Now it's back down to Tennessee minus one. No upside for the Texans. Locked in at the four, like I said. Why is this line, Simon, moving so much? Simon says, give me Tennessee plus one. When Simon says do it, we do what Simon says. Minus one. At Bethany's survive it is? Yeah. Okay. Yeah. I don't get it. I do not get it at all. It's all public money too. Like, I'm looking the action app, and it's all public just hammering this Texan side. And we kinda talk about it like these NFL teams. You saw it a lot, especially in that Giants locker room after that game. They do not care about draft position. Like, these guys just wanna win. And a lot of them are playing for their jobs and playing for their futures. And, say what you want about the Tennessee being terrible and them losing and not covering all these games in a row. They at least been trying and being competitive in these games. Like, a lot of these games are close games. Like, it's not them just getting rolled by thirty, forty points. Right? It's a lot of times, I'm coming back, losing by a touchdown, or just failing that last that last drive. And me and you have talked a ton about this Texas team about how bad they are, mainly because of injuries. Right? And they were a top heavy team coming of the year. They were stars in the scrub type of team. Right? And now in this game, all the stars will be out. All the reasons they've been even be able to keep this thing together is going to be out for this Houston team. On the flip side, I just could see Tennessee messing up their draft position and wanting to win this game, and, they're desperate for a win. I mean, they've gone months without a win. Like, that that just wears on you. And we've already talked about how it's an anomaly them against the spread. Right? Two and fourteen against the spread this season. Worst against the spread ever. Ever. And, again, I know people don't wanna give us kudos, but, like, we've avoided them this whole time. We literally have avoided them this whole time. But I We deserve credit for our for our discipline. Honestly, though, it's been hard because every week, the books are giving us a free two to three points. No joke. Like, they're just begging for Tennessee money, and every week, it just was not coming through. And I know some pros have just been chasing this for well over a month on this Tennessee team. So, yeah, I I I just think Tennessee is in a good spot here. Playing against a a bunch of backups that, you know, I don't think Houston's gonna care at all about this game. On the flip side, I think Tennessee is gonna care about getting this last win. Callahan, just before the end of the season, try to feel good about themselves. And we see it all the time. Teams like this that have an horrible year, nothing to play for, they kinda steal one of these games end of the year. So, yeah, it makes me obviously, in a normal year, it'd feel good knowing the public's heavy on a road favorite in Houston, but that has not been the case this season. But I still I still like Tennessee at this number, and I do think it goes up by kickoff. Very interesting. Finally pulling the trigger on the Tennessee titans. I gotta tell you, I didn't see that one coming.”
TEN 14, HOU 23 — Titans lost to Texans 14-23; Tennessee -1 does not cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“Call me a sucker for this Jags team. I just love the way they've been playing down the stretcher. I'll take Mac Jones, Brian Thompson junior at plus four and a half.”
IND 26, JAX 23 — Jaguars lost to Colts 23-26 (OT) by 3, within Jacksonville +4.5; covers (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm betting panthers at plus eight and a half. I've already bet their money line.”
ATL 38, CAR 44 — Panthers beat Falcons 44-38 (OT), covering Carolina +8.5 with an outright win (ESPN scoreboard).
“I've already bet their money line. I love this as an upset for this this Carolina team.”
ATL 38, CAR 44 — Panthers beat Falcons 44-38 (OT); Carolina moneyline wins (ESPN scoreboard).
“But I'm not backing the bears here. No. Alright. I'm I'm all in on them. I love them. I I bet they're money line as well for this one.”
GB 22, CHI 24 — Bears beat Packers 24-22; Chicago moneyline wins (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm going with a road favorite, the Seattle Seahawks minus three against the Los Angeles Rams.”
LAR 25, SEA 30 — Seahawks beat Rams 30-25, a 5-point margin that covers -3 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Denver broncos visiting the Cincinnati Bengals. Pro football's two superpowers renew their classic rival. I can't quit this one. It was like another one that was in consideration for big balls. It's another one sort of that I gifted myself on Christmas day when it moved to three and a half. I took it at three and a half. It's since moved back down to three. What are your thoughts here?”
CIN 30, DEN 24 — Bengals beat Broncos 30-24 in overtime; Denver's -6 margin fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“And to me, that's why this game feels like it'll be close. And I know Denver doesn't need this one. Right? It's they need to win one of the next two. Obviously, they wanna win this one, but, you know, that that number to me at three and a half is just so tempting. Can't really pass on it. So it's another game where it's, like, hard to like dogs this week, but at this number against the Cincinnati defense, it feels like a good opportunity. And, yeah, matchup wise, like, really going through all the numbers and breaking it down, how this defensive line of Denver can match up against the offensive line of the Bengals, it's really gonna work out for them just because Joe Burrow, honestly, is one of the quarterbacks that does hold on to the ball. Like, he he does take sacks that the guys don't because he likes to push it downfield. It's too Joe is. I think we're kinda starting to figure that where, you know, for a while there, we'd always blame his offensive line as the years have gone along here. It's like, well, a lot of these are self inflicted wounds by Joe. Like, he's just not taking the first open read. He wants to kinda test the limits and push it downfield. So, it's all about the number here. Like you just said, it's shifting down to three to a lot of books. So a three and a half, especially contest wise, I would play it. But if it was two and a half, wouldn't even think about playing it.”
CIN 30, DEN 24 — Bengals beat Broncos 30-24 in overtime; Denver's -6 margin fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I did get Carolina at plus eight and a half against Tampa Bay, and it's now at eight. This was my exact decision.”
TB 48, CAR 14 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 48-14; Carolina's -34 margin fails to cover +8.5 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm with you. Like, I love this Panthers team. My only fear is just that I'm so in love with it. Like, I this is another game where I took their money line again.”
TB 48, CAR 14 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 48-14; Carolina's moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“Detroit got down to three yesterday. I bettered at three. I'm assuming you bettered at three.”
DET 40, SF 34 — Lions beat 49ers 40-34; Detroit's +6 margin covers -3 (ESPN box score).
“I would say Detroit, I went pretty heavy on the minus three. Even at minus three and a half, I've honestly betted up. I've I'm feeling very chalky with that one.”
DET 40, SF 34 — Lions beat 49ers 40-34; Detroit's +6 margin covers -3 (ESPN box score).
“I did bet the packers money line on Christmas day. They were still slight dogs at the time.”
MIN 27, GB 25 — Vikings beat Packers 27-25; Green Bay's moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“We're going with Carolina as an eight, eight and a half point dog, and Atlanta, all NFC South boosted parlay.”
Both legs lost: Panthers fell 14-48 to the Buccaneers, and the Falcons fell 24-30 in overtime to the Commanders (ESPN box scores).
“my biggest bet by far of these three games is Chiefs minus two and a half, and it's not close.”
KC 29, PIT 10 — Chiefs beat Steelers 29-10; Kansas City's +19 margin covers -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm gonna go chalk side, the heavy public side. I'll take Seattle minus three and a half.”
SEA 6, CHI 3 — Seahawks beat Bears 6-3; Seattle's +3 margin fails to cover -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I already bet them first half as well, Seattle minus two and a half.”
SEA 6, CHI 3 (1H) — Seahawks led Bears 6-3 at halftime with no second-half scoring; Seattle's +3 first-half margin covers -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I've just bet the Bengals number at minus three just because we you just talked about the movement.”
CIN 30, DEN 24 — Bengals beat Broncos 30-24 in overtime; Cincinnati's +6 margin covers -3 (ESPN box score).
“I don't know what to do with this number, but it's six and a half. I'm betting Cleveland. I love Cleveland here, and it really is all about to do with Miami and what we talk all the time, Chad. Just they're a different team when they leave Miami. Like, two at home.”
MIA 20, CLE 3 — Dolphins beat Browns 20-3; Cleveland's -17 margin fails to cover +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm pissed the numbers moved down so much. I was really hoping it was four and a half for Simon Says, but I still like the four just because I see the same thing last week. I thought Washington was gonna get down to three against Philly. I think the same thing with Atlanta. Think Atlanta's gonna get down to three, three and a half in this matchup. So grab the four while you can and get that key number.”
WSH 30, ATL 24 — Commanders beat Falcons 30-24 in overtime; Atlanta's -6 margin fails to cover +4 (ESPN box score).
“I'm grabbing Cowboys right now at seven and a half.”
PHI 41, DAL 7 — Eagles beat Cowboys 41-7; Dallas's -34 margin fails to cover +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“we're dying to bet on Mahomes at under three. I'm take I that's what was about to say, though. I took the two.”
KC 29, PIT 10 — Chiefs beat Steelers 29-10; Kansas City's +19 margin covers -2 (ESPN box score).
“we bet Kansas City on Sunday night, Monday morning at plus two and a half.”
KC 27, HOU 19 — Chiefs beat Texans 27-19; Kansas City's +8 margin covers the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Texans at three and a half. We are very much hoping for the middle.”
KC 27, HOU 19 — Chiefs beat Texans 27-19; Houston's -8 margin fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“than Tommy John having the support to give us to bet the New York Jets as three three and a half point underdogs at home against the Los Angeles Rams. We like this a lot on Tuesday when it was three and a half. We both bet it there. It has moved to three.”
LAR 19, NYJ 9 — Rams beat Jets 19-9; New York's -10 margin fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm on the the commanders at three and a half,”
WSH 36, PHI 33 — Commanders beat Eagles 36-33 in overtime on Jayden Daniels' game-winning touchdown; Washington's outright win covers +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Minnesota at Seattle. This game's at three. It was at three and a half. I liked it a lot at three and a half. I bet it at three and a half.”
MIN 27, SEA 24 — Vikings beat Seahawks 27-24; Seattle's -3 margin covers +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Tampa Bay at Dallas. Dallas is four. We both liked it at four. It's trending towards three and a half. Money is coming in on our side.”
DAL 26, TB 24 — Cowboys beat Buccaneers 26-24; Dallas's +2 margin fails to cover -4 (ESPN box score).
“Do it. It's in. Dallas, New York Jets, Seattle Seahawks, Washington Commanders, Carolina Panthers. That is our money line. Underdog, Ron Robin, give me your biggest bets right now.”
Round robin busts: Cowboys ML won (26-24 TB), Jets ML lost (9-19 LAR), Seahawks ML lost (24-27 MIN), Commanders ML won (36-33 OT PHI), Panthers ML won (36-30 OT ARI) — the Jets and Seahawks legs lose the round robin (ESPN box scores).
“So, yeah, if we have the three, we're gonna take the three. We're gonna go with the go with the broncos.”
DEN 27, LAC 34 — Chargers beat Broncos 34-27 on Dec 19, 2024; Denver +3 loses by 7, busts the cover (ESPN box score).
“I have not been able to check bet three six five. Let me see if I can get an update here. They're probably plus one right now for the Chiefs. That's what think most American books are out right now. Okay. So yeah. Plus one plus one and a half Chiefs. Yep. Yep. You're exactly right. So it's coming down off of that news. I bettered at two and a half yesterday.”
HOU 19, KC 27 — Chiefs beat Texans 27-19 on Dec 21, 2024; Kansas City +2.5 wins outright and covers (ESPN box score).
“Millman the middler. That's what they call me. Pittsburgh at Baltimore. Baltimore's a six point favorite. This number's come down. Neither of us were scared off by the Steelers' loss to the Eagles on Sunday to not bet them here. I actually waited until Monday afternoon to get the six and a half as soon as I saw Tomlin say he was optimistic about TJ Watt.”
PIT 17, BAL 34 — Ravens beat Steelers 34-17 on Dec 21, 2024; Pittsburgh +6.5 loses by 17, busts the cover (ESPN box score).
“It it is. Simon Says Washington three and a half.”
PHI 33, WSH 36 — Commanders beat Eagles 36-33 on Dec 22, 2024; Washington +3.5 wins outright, covers (ESPN box score).
“I bet it at three and a half this morning on Seattle.”
MIN 27, SEA 24 — Vikings beat Seahawks 27-24 on Dec 22, 2024; Seattle +3.5 loses by only 3, covers (ESPN box score).
“Don't we just take the three right now with Denver? Yes.”
DEN 27, LAC 34 — Chargers beat Broncos 34-27 on Dec 19, 2024; Denver +3 loses by 7, busts the cover (ESPN box score).
“Chiefs are plus two and a half right now against the Texans. By the way, it's moved down from three and a half when we started the show. So that's the book saying as Carson wants in their mind. Yep. But we just talked about that. Their X rays came back negative. Grab the two and a half right now. It's another position we could take out if we want to. But even if it's Carson Wentz,”
HOU 19, KC 27 — Chiefs beat Texans 27-19 on Dec 21, 2024; Kansas City +2.5 wins outright and covers (ESPN box score).
“they had good reason to. This Houston team is really questionable right now. So, yeah, that one jumps out to me two and a half. Pittsburgh, six and a half right now against this Ravens team on Saturday. I you know what? I saw that. Are we suckers again? I I I, like, I didn't wanna say anything. It's cross it's it's above six, though. We have to take it. I didn't wanna anything.”
PIT 17, BAL 34 — Ravens beat Steelers 34-17 on Dec 21, 2024; Pittsburgh +6.5 loses by 17, busts the cover (ESPN box score).
“Yeah. This last one, I'm I'm worried I'm overthinking it, but it it just feels like it's too easy. Once again, a line that feels too big. Commanders are plus four against this Eagles team where this number feels like it should be plus three. We're getting a nice bump here because Washington had a little meltdown. Right? They're up 17 nothing. Yeah. Saints come all the way back. The flip side, this Eagles team who was doubted today just rolled, you know, public and professional players alike that bet the Pittsburgh Team. I wanna bet this, but I again, I feel like another number that can I be patient here? Won't this go up rather than come down? Well, it's already down to three and a half. I'm seeing three and a they Chad just told you then, so I guess I'll grab the four now while I can. Yeah. If you can get a four, you should definitely get it. I see one four out there. The rest I'm seeing are”
PHI 33, WSH 36 — Commanders beat Eagles 36-33 on Dec 22, 2024; Washington +4 wins outright, covers (ESPN box score).
“I pulled the trigger. I bet the Panthers at two and a half.”
DAL 30, CAR 14 — Cowboys beat Panthers 30-14 on Dec 15, 2024; Carolina -2.5 loses outright, busts the cover (ESPN box score).
“Because of that Panthers game, you're getting a five, five and a half lower number on this Eagles game. And, I just I have a hard time making the number that big. Like, we already talked about, Chad. I just think Pittsburgh is underrated here. The number feels too big. I'll be a sucker with you. I'll buy this Pittsburgh one and just I'll ride the Tomlin spot, but it's like,”
PIT 13, PHI 27 — Eagles beat Steelers 27-13 on Dec 15, 2024; Pittsburgh +5.5 loses by 14, busts the cover (ESPN box score).
“We're going with the Indianapolis colts plus four”
IND 13, DEN 31 — Broncos beat Colts 31-13 on Dec 15, 2024; Indianapolis +4 loses by 18, busts the cover (ESPN box score).
“yeah, I I I fully support you in this number. I bet it. I like the colds here, like we talked about. The only real fear here is the the difference between this team that playing at home and on the road. They've just been a different team. They're they're obviously way better at home, this Colts team. And even Anthony Richardson in his young career, I mean, you can go back and look. He is a covering machine at home. He struggled a little bit on the road. Again, maybe that's to do with outdoors, all this other stuff that we don't know because he's only played, you know, 11 games up to this point or 12 games in the NFL. So that stuff is tough to say, but another game just like that one we talked about with the Jaguars, it feels like pros versus shows, another week of the the professionals are all hammering one side, and the the public is very happy thinking they're getting a good number on the other side. So, yeah, Chad, I'm I'm with you and back in the books here and taking this three and a half four with this colts team. Also, couple really interesting injury”
IND 13, DEN 31 — Broncos beat Colts 31-13 on Dec 15, 2024; Indianapolis +3.5 loses by 18, busts the cover (ESPN box score).
“alright. Good. Then I feel better about putting the lions in at two and a half. You've kinda convinced me.”
BUF 48, DET 42 — Bills beat Lions 48-42 on Dec 15, 2024; Detroit -2.5 loses outright, busts the cover (ESPN box score).
“last one is just Detroit at two. If you can get the two,”
BUF 48, DET 42 — Bills beat Lions 48-42 on Dec 15, 2024; Detroit -2 loses outright, busts the cover (ESPN box score).
“Green Bay, I just can't stop betting at two minus two and a half, and I I know it's”
GB 30, SEA 13 — Packers beat Seahawks 30-13 on Dec 15, 2024; Green Bay -2.5 wins outright and covers (ESPN box score).
“So, you know, you know, like you, I probably put, what, a $100 on the packers at minus 2 and a half, $200.”
GB 30, SEA 13 — Packers beat Seahawks 30-13 on Dec 15, 2024; Green Bay -2.5 wins outright and covers (ESPN box score).
“touchdown return. Yeah. Right. Right. Right? For interception. Right? So I get it. I'd probably lean packers minus two and a half for the contest versus bucks plus two and a half, but, you know, we can do that. Bigger bet. So it's like, I'll probably make us put a green band just because I'm so heavily invested. It's like, make the show be invested in it too. I don't have any I I've bet them both. I've bet more on the packers at minus two and a half than I've bet on the box at plus three.”
TB 40, LAC 17 — Buccaneers beat Chargers 40-17 on Dec 15, 2024; Tampa Bay +3 wins outright and covers (ESPN box score).
“Simon and I have a money line underdog round robin. Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts. Simon, correct me if I'm wrong in any of these. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins.”
CLE 7-KC 21; IND 13-DEN 31; TB 40-LAC 17; PIT 13-PHI 27; MIA 12-HOU 20 — Week 15 ML round robin busts: Browns lost 7-21 at Chiefs; Colts lost 13-31 at Broncos; Buccaneers won 40-17 at Chargers; Steelers lost 13-27 at Eagles; Dolphins lost 12-20 at Texans (ESPN box scores). Only 1 of 5 legs won.
“Simon says go grab Green Bay minus two and a half right now.”
GB 30, SEA 13 — Packers beat Seahawks 30-13 on Dec 15, 2024; Green Bay -2.5 wins outright and covers (ESPN box score).
“Get the five if you like the Steelers. Look. The Eagles have made some noise the past twenty four hours. Brendan Graham, I don't know if you saw this on WIP I did. Philadelphia, but he came out and basically said, Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown aren't friends anymore. Jalen Hurts who is AJ Brown's kid's godfather, there there was a lot of noise after that game. Right? Jalen Hurts threw for a 108 yards. He has the fewest passing attempts of any quarterback, starting quarterback in the league this year. He asked AJ Brown point blank what's going on with the offense. He just said one word after the game, passing, throwing his helmet on the field or on the sideline. DeVonte Smith saying we're not on the same page. Something going on with his offense. Like, as good as Saquon is, Jalen's struggling, and that's been a theme for two years now. Yeah. I was I I forgot to bring it up because I had an amazing stat for someone like you that's just been hating on Hertz. You'd have him in your top 10 coming to the season. You've been bad mouthing this season. Before this weekend, him and Josh Allen had literally the same exact stats for total touchdowns, for turnovers, for yards rushing and passing combined. Their stats were literally the exact same. So on one hand, Josh Josh Allen's the greatest QB ever having the greatest season ever, and here's Chad just shitting on Hertz who's having literally the mirror season until this past weekend. Obviously, Josh has pulled ahead now with his Is that true? Yeah. It was like, because because Hertz has the cheat code of the 12 rushing touchdowns for the tush push, and now he's even more because they just did it again this past week. But Josh Allen's doing the touch push. Didn't hear much people shooting on him about it, getting touch pushed into the end zone. I think, you know, AJ is a diva. Like, I knew AJ was a diva coming in. The Brandon Grant thing is spooky because it's like he he didn't say they weren't friends. He's basically saying, Jalen Hurts is, like, trying to make things work, and AJ is basically saying fuck off. Like, I don't even wanna talk to you right now, which is, like, terrifying. Like, I I agree with you. That's that's that's not what I wanna hear, but it's like, dude, your your team is the two seed. You haven't lost in seven, eight weeks. Like, it just sucks that people have those type of personalities where it's never good enough. You know? Like, keep it in house. Just keep your mouth shut. You didn't need to make that sound bite to get everyone going crazy like this, but, hopefully, that worked through it. But, like, you know, AJ is in a weird spot where I get he want I guess, he wants the ball, but the Eagles are are run first team. They have the best weapon of football right now in Saquon. So it's like, if if Hurts goes out there and they throw for 300 yards and four touchdowns against the Carolina Panthers and we lose, is that a good thing? Is because AJ is now happy because he got one fifty and two touchdowns and a loss. It's like I I feel bad for he doesn't really understand it. They're like, he because, I don't know if it was last year before. He had this crazy year with all these touchdowns and a ton of receiving. Yeah. And that was really fun, but it's like, we saw that last year that that didn't work once it got cold out. And and like you just said, Jalen Hurts, I'm with you. I agree with you. He is not consistent. That that is a weakness of his where, using a couple of the quarterbacks in this league that they need to see a couple of three, four catches in a row to find a rhythm. If they don't get those three, four in a row, he'll put up what he does did this past week, whatever it was, 11 of 19. Like, he'll just never get in a rhythm really passing wise. And, the new personality of the Seagulls team of just being a run for his team has not helped that. So I do agree with that. But, in this matchup, I mean, this number, like, we Oh, we talked about it. It's so telling that who who's betting the Eagles? I don't get it. That's why I'll never understand this number. Or shouldn't we all bet Pittsburgh and then just let this fall where in May? It's like Pittsburgh earned that respect. And, you know, we talked on Sunday. I I was a little worried about the summer because I it's like, what's going on with Pickens? Now we've had Tomlin soundbite saying he's probably not gonna play. He said it's really doubtful that Pickens plays in this game. You know, that that that's a big deal. Like, that is a big deal against an Eagles defense that is legit. Like, obviously, their Kryptonite is other white guys that Adam Phelan tore them up last week. But, overall, this has been a really stingy defense. And even against that Ravens team, we saw they they can make stops when they need to in big time spots. So, yeah, it's it's a game where I know what to do, Chad. I I really wanna take Pittsburgh. I just am worried where I'm missing something here that maybe I'm overvaluing Pittsburgh, this is the right time to jump off. But why is this number not three, three and a half? That's my biggest issue to me. It's like, even my model thinks this is too overvalued. So even the human element, take it out of it. It's like, okay. We're supposed to take Pittsburgh here. Mike Tomlin, as a road dog of between four and six points, nearly 65% against the spread. He's basically north of 60% in every category breakdown as a dog. Like, I know we're always looking to thread the needle on these things and pick the spot where we think it's gonna work. We did it with the Chiefs. You know this line's fishy, though. It's totally fishy because so fishy. It it's it's completely fishy. I worry that that the Eagles will react to this week's drama and come out better than ever. Oh, yeah. Because that was a loss. That Carolina game, that that that feels like a loss in that locker room. Right? Yes. Yeah. 100%. They didn't they are not walking out of that game thinking, yeah. We've won nine in a row. We're still the two seed, and we've got the best running back in football. They're not thinking that, but they continue to have a dominant defensive line, and their offensive line is really good. It's why Saquon is second to Josh Allen in the MVP odds. And, look, you could you could if not for the fact Josh Allen is a quarterback and doing it in dramatic fashion in some really high profile moments, Saquon, the odds should be much closer. Josh Allen is, like, minus 400. Saquon is plus 400. It should be more like minus 100, you know, plus 200. Because Saquon is leading a team that is number two in the conference that has a better record, and he's on track to break one of the most sacred records in all of football, which is the total rushing yardage record in a season. Josh Allen's team has three losses. Right? And he's on track to do miraculous things, but how many records is he gonna break? He's just gonna be a spectacular quarterback who's leading a team that has a really good record. I mean, I don't know. I have a Saquon bias. I love the guy. I think he's so fun to watch. Love his attitude. I love his athleticism. I think what he's doing this year is spectacular. I love the fact that he's sticking to the Giants, but I feel like we gotta bet on Tomlin. Yeah. There's just no reason not to. I know. I hate it because it just feels way too easy. But, again He was gonna easy has been winning. Like, last week, the Chargers felt really way too easy, and that's what was spooking me on that number as well. And every idiot in the world's like, well, this is the spot you take them. It's it's it's over a field goal. You take the charges over a field against the Chiefs. The same thing with Pittsburgh. It's like, everyone I'm talking to, even the book yesterday, this fucking guy at the window goes, Pittsburgh, easiest bet of the week. There are no way they Tom, no way he loses by three. And it's like, fuck, man. I'm making that same bet. Goddamn it.”
PIT 13, PHI 27 — Eagles beat Steelers 27-13 on Dec 15, 2024; Pittsburgh +5 loses by 14, busts the cover (ESPN box score).
“this could easily keep going up. So if you're like me and Chad, you like Minnesota, grab the five and a half while you still can if you haven't already.”
MIN 42, ATL 21 — Vikings beat Falcons 42-21; Vikings -5.5 covers by 21 points (ESPN box score).
“We gotta give out our two team money line underdog parlay. Bet three six five is gonna boost the odds highlighted on their site all weekend under both game pages. And remember, both games are eligible for bet three six five's early payout promo where your money line pick gets marked as a win if they take a 17 lead even if they lose. So if you want to bet this, bet it at bet three six five. The boosted parlay is bears and seahawks. Find the boost under either the bears or seahawks game pages on bet three six five.”
Parlay busts: Bears ML lost as 49ers won 38-13 (ESPN box score); Seahawks ML won as Seattle beat Arizona 30-18 on the road (ESPN box score), but the parlay needs both legs to win.
“two, three weeks ago, me and you were automatically been the lines here. We do not trust Jordan Love at all. Even if you played well those last couple weeks, there's still little things he does where it's just it's not the Jordan Love from last year. Right? There's just something off about Jordan Love this year. But at this number against a banged up Lions team, how do we not stay in this? Like, the the backdoor is always, to me, always gonna be open. And the Lions are now giving me the spot where it feels like the Bengals are in, right, that they're gonna need to put up 30 points against these really good offenses if they're gonna win these games. So, yeah, three and a half. It does feel a little too easy. That's the scary part. It's like, why is this not a three? But we'll take we'll take the value. I'll take the three and a half right now while it's still available. Yeah. The only thing that's given me any pause at all is that”
DET 34, GB 31 — Lions beat Packers 34-31; Packers +3.5 covers, losing by only 3 (ESPN box score).
“even we bet it it moved to six and a half. At five and a half, I felt like it was right. At six and a half, was like, okay. The value there shifted to Cleveland at that point. Yeah. Same thing feels here. Right? Like, this should be four and a half, five. You just you mean, you're you're saying that Beth, you're subscribed. It's six and a half, but most books is down to six. So, yeah, to me, I'd grab the six and a half now. I can only see this coming down just because it's it's just too high of a number for this type of divisional matchup in December. Like you said, Tomlin, in these games, for some reason, either lose his outright or just play it really close and win by three at the end. Doesn't matter when it was Ben Roethlisberger or Mason Rudolph. Like, these are just ugly games for Pittsburgh in home divisional games. So, I'm with you, Chad. I like the six and a half.”
PIT 27, CLE 14 — Steelers beat Browns 27-14; Browns +6.5 busts by 13 points (ESPN box score).
“I I was confused by the order in the schedule and the spread, but I really meant Minnesota minus five,”
MIN 42, ATL 21 — Vikings beat Falcons 42-21; Vikings -5 covers by 21 points (ESPN box score).
“That's the mantra. Get out early. Buffalo at the Los Angeles Rams. Rams are four and a half. Look. This was a decent move off of the Sunday night Superman performance by Josh Allen. It opened at three and a half. You wanted to bet the Bills at three and a half. Now it's at four and a half. You made a great point on Sunday night. The Bills don't tend to lose these kinds of games. I interpreted that as them being a favorite in a spot where you normally like to take a dog, so I looked it up. Allen is a favorite of more than 55% against spread in his career. On the road, 57% against spread. We talked just the matchup too. Right? We were saying this Bills team, their identity running the ball down team's throats, you saw it there on, you know, Sunday night. Like, it's incredible how Joe Brady's transformed that offense where I feel like such an idiot. Even though I did take their over coming the season, it was just like, how did we doubt that offense with Josh Allen? Josh Allen. Josh Allen. Alert here for Josh Allen. Looking for Alley. He's got it. He's a runner. No. He's a player. He's a football player through and through with his legs, and there we go. Josh Allen. Huge run. An excuse me, touchdown. How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone? Goodness. There's no fear. No way. Became louder and louder. He's so good. He's so unique. I mean, obviously, he should be the MVP favorite right now. I mean, this is it's lined up perfectly too. Their their division's so bad. If they can just survive these next five weeks and get that one seed, get Kansas City to come to Buffalo, it's it's just so lined up for them this year. Like, how do they not make the Super Bowl this year, this Bills team? I just, you know, I love their defense where they're playing, but offensively, I'll I'll never have fear when they're down. Like, they're just gonna be a team that's never dead because they're just so in sync right now offensively, and Josh Allen is at such a high level. So, yeah, wanted to be on the Rams. I joked I've lost a small house betting the Rams this season, and I'm not gonna be sucked. And even though this is another spot that stinks, like, this number stinks, I don't know how the Rams are gonna cover it. The books, they they they believe the Rams are gonna somehow cover this number, but I'm just totally off with this where it's like, I think it's all because of Stafford that this number is what it is. If it's if it's not all the respect we give to him, this number is easily six, six and a half. Stafford has not been the staffer of the like, the past. He's been terribly inconsistent this season and, like, he goes on little runs, will play great for a quarter, maybe get a couple touchdowns, and then he'll just disappear for two or three quarters. He's just been so inconsistent this year. And this Bills team, I get it. They people expect them to have a letdown game here, and I I totally view that. That that's why I wanted to be on the ramps here. It's like, how do you not have a letdown game? But, with them chasing that one c, Chad, and just how locked in Josh Allen is, I just I can't see it. So there's a couple fours out there if you still wanna grab it. I would. I just I think this Bills team is so good on the flip side. This Rams team, we've seen it. They're just not that team we thought they were gonna be coming this season. Doesn't matter that they have, you know, two of the best receivers in football and a really good running game. They just aren't consistent offensively and defensively. They can't stop the run. We even saw it last week. Like, Taysom Hill going out was a gift for them because he was running all over them, him and Kumar. So, yeah, totally off this Rams team. I I would buy on this bill spot.”
LAR 44, BUF 42 — Rams beat Bills 44-42; Bills -4 busts, losing outright by 2 (ESPN box score).
“you know, that just shows how much healthier this Chargers team is now. On the flip side of this Chiefs team, I think public perception is just yeah. They're gonna win, but they're not gonna cover. So that's the fear, Chad, is like, me and you have just been fading this Chiefs team basically every week, and it's been really good to us. I don't mind going at it again because it's four and a half. I'm gonna grab that now. But if it's three and a half come contest time, I don't know if we force that one in because it's like it feels like this should be the number to me feels right is four here. Four, four and a half. I'll take the value of four and a half right now. I'll bet $3.06 5. How are the chiefs tackles going to”
KC 19, LAC 17 — Chiefs beat Chargers 19-17; Chargers +4.5 covers by margin of -2 (ESPN box score).
“Two more games that are interesting to me. You ready? Dallas plus five and a half, at home, I think it's on Monday night, versus the Bengals. I agree with you. At first glance, it's like, yeah. This this Bengals defense, who can they stop? The answer might be Cooper Rush. Yeah. But It's the right number. Like, I think it's inflated. It's probably inflated by It is. At least a point and a half. I I just love that your eyes immediately went to that game. Yeah. It's it's a giant home dog against a defense. I can't stop anyone. I agree. Take take the six. This is definitely gonna come down. Is it at six? Are you seeing six? Yeah. I'm I'm about three six five. It's it's at six. Wow.”
CIN 27, DAL 20 — Bengals beat Cowboys 27-20; Cowboys +6 busts, losing outright by 7 (ESPN box score).
“Detroit minus 10 as you just said. Dude,”
DET 23, CHI 20 — Lions beat Bears 23-20 on Thanksgiving; Detroit won by only 3, busting the -10 spread (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“I just have to play this number and take this plus four with this Giants team.”
DAL 27, NYG 20 — Cowboys beat Giants 27-20 on Thanksgiving; New York lost outright by 7, busting the +4 spread (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“Simon says, give me Green Bay minus three, Chad.”
GB 30, MIA 17 — Packers beat Dolphins 30-17 on Thanksgiving, a 13-point margin that covers -3 (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“is gonna be the New York Jets plus two and a half”
SEA 26, NYJ 21 — Seahawks beat Jets 26-21; New York lost outright by 5, busting the +2.5 spread (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“Pittsburgh at Cincinnati. Numbers at two and a half. What's most surprising to me about this, Simon, is that we'd question betting Mike Tomlin as a dog on the road off of a loss. The number touched three for a minute on Monday. I bettered a three. You can see it in the app.”
PIT 44, CIN 38 — Steelers beat Bengals 44-38; Pittsburgh won outright by 6, covering the +3 spread (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“Indy at New England, really interesting game. The line opened at Colts one and a half. It moved quickly. For the record, I bettered at two and a half.”
IND 25, NE 24 — Colts beat Patriots 25-24; Indianapolis won outright by 1, covering the +2.5 spread (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“I'd rather take the Eagles money line, have them win this game outright on a late field goal.”
PHI 24, BAL 19 — Eagles beat Ravens 24-19; Philadelphia won outright, cashing the moneyline (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“give me give me Denver minus five and a half. I love Denver here. Love it.”
DEN 41, CLE 32 — Broncos beat Browns 41-32 on Monday Night Football, a 9-point margin that covers -5.5 (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“This week's boosted parlay, the New York Jets and the Philadelphia Eagles.”
Parlay busts: Seahawks beat Jets 26-21 (Jets ML loses); Eagles beat Ravens 24-19 (Eagles ML wins), but the parlay requires both legs (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“Let's talk about a couple of Thanksgiving games quickly. Yeah. Lions bears in Detroit. Lions are 10 and a half point favorites right now. How do we not take them?”
DET 23, CHI 20 — Lions beat Bears 23-20 on Thanksgiving; Detroit won by only 3, busting the -10.5 spread (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“this is a this is not a great spot for them. As much as I don't like Jordan Love, I feel like we gotta take the packers. Yeah. And you just talked a little bit about it. It's like, this ain't down in Miami. This is gonna be in, what, 30 degrees? Maybe I guess it's a night game. So what? 20 degrees at night in Lambeau? There's a reason they're giving you three and a half here, Chad.”
GB 30, MIA 17 — Packers beat Dolphins 30-17 on Thanksgiving, a 13-point margin that covers -3.5 (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“Pittsburgh plus two and a half at Cincinnati. Mike Tomlin, as a dog in the division, on the road. Don't overthink it. Don't overthink it.”
PIT 44, CIN 38 — Steelers beat Bengals 44-38; Pittsburgh won outright by 6, covering the +2.5 spread (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“Carolina plus six and a half at Tampa Bay. Done. Book it. Let's go.”
TB 26, CAR 23 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 26-23 in OT; Carolina lost by only 3, covering the +6.5 spread (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“we're fading the Detroit lions as seven and a half point road favorites against the Indianapolis colts. We talked about it on Tuesday. We gotta chew Between our babies. That's all this is. We've been betting the lions. We've been betting the colts. We're going with the colts.”
DET 24, IND 6 — Lions beat Colts 24-6; Indianapolis lost outright by 18, busting the +7.5 spread (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“So, yeah, Chad, I'm right there with you. If you can grab the two right now, I'd grab it.”
GB 38, SF 10 — Packers beat 49ers 38-10; San Francisco lost outright by 28, busting the +2 spread (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“This was a Sunday play for us. We bet the cardinals a plus one and a half.”
SEA 16, ARI 6 — Seahawks beat Cardinals 16-6; Arizona lost outright, busting the +1.5 spread (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“the rams are three point dogs that's been bouncing around. I I love the eagles here, and you love the rams. And this was your Simon Says,”
PHI 37, LAR 20 — Eagles beat Rams 37-20; Los Angeles lost outright by 17, busting the +3 spread (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“if you're getting plus one and a half on Arizona again, I'd take that number because I just said it. I think it's by kickoff, I just can't I'd be shocked if Arizona is not a favorite by kickoff.”
SEA 16, ARI 6 — Seahawks beat Cardinals 16-6; Arizona lost outright, busting the +1.5 spread (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“Sorry, Chad. Simon says, give me the rams plus three. When Simon says do it, we do what Simon says.”
PHI 37, LAR 20 — Eagles beat Rams 37-20; Los Angeles lost outright by 17, busting the +3 spread (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“We talk to the lions are breaking the rules right now. We we are gonna fade, and there are divisional games coming up that's gonna be nice numbers and good matchups. And we always talk. Divisional games are just different. This ain't that. This is ad division indoor against a Colts defense that can't stop anything. I mean, what Aaron Rodgers put up 27 points last week? I mean Yeah. Come on. So not gonna not gonna overthink this one. Going with the chalk once again. Going with Joe Public. I'll take the lions on minus seven and a half.”
DET 24, IND 6 — Lions beat Colts 24-6, an 18-point margin that covers -7.5 (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“Going with the chalk once again. Going with Joe Public. I'll take the lions on minus seven and a half.”
DET 24, IND 6 — Lions beat Colts 24-6, an 18-point margin that covers -7.5 (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“But, yeah, with that with that news, I've I've only made two bets right now in this game that's just been on green bet. Bet him when those two. Bet him one again and got two and half because I thought, okay. This might keep going up if Purdy's out. He's back. I I'm happy to buy to my position if I really like the 40 niners here, but, yeah, this is a game where if you're gonna bet it early, I would just bet Green Bay to be safe because”
GB 38, SF 10 — Packers beat 49ers 38-10, a 28-point margin that covers -2.5 (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“I took the Eagles here right away at two and a half. Because there's a couple of books at it two, two and a half. I just took that early just because I I assume this will go up to three, three and a half by Kickoff.”
LAR 20, PHI 37 — Eagles beat Rams 37-20; Eagles -2.5 covered with a margin of +17 (ESPN box score).
“Patriots, are we the suckers? Are we a sucker we're trying to take the Patriots at plus seven and a half? That feels like it's a lot of points for that matchup. I forgot who they're playing. Hold on. They're playing Miami. Oh, yeah. I was really focused on home dogs. Yeah. I know. They're on the road. I'm just taking that one right now. They're just another big big dog that popped out to me.”
MIA 34, NE 15 — Dolphins beat Patriots 34-15; Patriots +7.5 failed to cover, margin -19 (ESPN box score).
“I make this a pick. We're getting plus one and a half, plus two right now in the 49ers. This is just an early bet I'm gonna make right now as 49ers too. I just love that number.”
GB 38, SF 10 — Packers beat 49ers 38-10; 49ers +1.5 failed to cover, margin -28 (ESPN box score).
“if it's already moved to three and a half, might as well just fucking wait and see what this line is. Yeah. I was with a couple of professionals who were, like, literally talking during that bears game. They were gonna bet the bears no matter what this upcoming week because they just think that Caleb looks way freer, I guess, today than he's had looked in weeks. And I would totally agree. Do you because, again, I didn't watch enough of that game. Yes. My view was it just seemed like if by free, do you mean he's just scrambling more and running with the ball? He ran a lot more, but also he was it felt like they were they were throwing more vertical passes, like downfield. Like, the routes he was running were that that the receivers were running were just more vertical. They weren't throwing as many crossing routes, and the players made better plays. There were also a lot more screens. Like, it was out of his hands in about two seconds flat versus being closer to three seconds. So who knows? Maybe the protection was a little bit better, but, clearly, they did something that gave him the confidence that gave him the confidence to play as aggressively as he did all game. I think a lot of it had to do with getting the ball out of his hands fast. Alright. I'll throw a couple thousand on then because I I I could see professionals betting this down to three.”
CHI 27, MIN 30 — Vikings beat Bears 30-27 in OT; Bears +3.5 covered with a margin of -3 (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Browns at one and a half. I just couldn't Couldn't resist it.”
NO 35, CLE 14 — Saints beat Browns 35-14; Browns +1.5 failed to cover, margin -21 (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Lions at minus 13. It's in the app. I saw it moving to 13 and a half at a couple of Connecticut books and wanted to get to 13 while I could.”
DET 52, JAX 6 — Lions beat Jaguars 52-6; Lions -13 covered with a margin of +46 (ESPN box score).
“Detroit, I've just been hammering it. I've at thirteen, I was just all over it. 13 and a half, I played a little bit.”
DET 52, JAX 6 — Lions beat Jaguars 52-6; Lions -13 covered with a margin of +46 (ESPN box score).
“So I bet it at two and a half, Kansas City on Monday. It's been holding.”
BUF 30, KC 21 — Bills beat Chiefs 30-21; Chiefs +2.5 failed to cover, margin -9 (ESPN box score).
“Two and a half, chiefs, if you can still find it, that's no brow no doubt about getting one of my bigger bets.”
BUF 30, KC 21 — Bills beat Chiefs 30-21; Chiefs +2.5 failed to cover, margin -9 (ESPN box score).
“Pittsburgh, I was hoping we'd still get the three and a half, Chad. We've seen now it's the books are gonna hold down the three. I haven't broken yet. Like, my early heavy money was on the three and a half. Haven't touched the three yet. I'm gonna give in. This will be one of my bigger bets if it just stays in the three. I don't I don't hate taking the three. I just want the three and a half.”
PIT 18, BAL 16 — Steelers beat Ravens 18-16; Steelers covered +3 with a margin of +2 (ESPN box score).
“book it, stealers. We might get burned. Obviously, we think we could get burned here. But It's not a 100 success rate. Nothing is a 100% success rate. It's positive EV. Like, this is what we think is gonna happen, and I'm not gonna overthink it on this. Like, I'm not gonna get crazy. We're just gonna play what we have always played. If this was Duck Hodges and the Steelers were plus three,”
PIT 18, BAL 16 — Steelers beat Ravens 18-16; Steelers covered +3 with a margin of +2 (ESPN box score).
“We're going in the foxhole with the Los Angeles Rams minus four and a half against the New England Patriots.”
NE 22, LAR 28 — Rams beat Patriots 28-22; Rams -4.5 covered with a margin of +6 (ESPN box score).
“it's down to four and a half like you just said on this Rams team. That to me is there's there's too much line movement right now in to pass on this value.”
NE 22, LAR 28 — Rams beat Patriots 28-22; Rams -4.5 covered with a margin of +6 (ESPN box score).
“We're sort of leaning chargers right now minus one and a half against the Bengals. Maybe we're, like, on the wrong side of the wave now with the chargers because we've avoided the chargers. We've said they're a little bit too vanilla. We didn't believe they were good enough to beat good teams. Now all of a sudden, we've changed our tune, and they could beat a good quarterback, which they haven't done this year. They've lost to Mahomes. They've lost to Kyler Murray. But maybe we're snake bitten. They've basically done things they don't do the things that have burned us the most. They don't make bad coaching decisions. They don't make bad penalties at the worst possible time. They don't turn the ball over. So now we like the chargers. We're not gonna put them in the contest, I don't think, but give me your take here. I wouldn't mind putting them in. I I love the chargers in the spot. This is probably gonna end up being one of my bigger bets. I just love the number. Love this team. The biggest thing I love about them is that they're not the Cincinnati Bengals team, Chad. I think this is one of more overrated teams this season. You're like me, though. You love Joe Burrow, and he kinda blinds you to it. Love him.”
LAC 34, CIN 27 — Chargers beat Bengals 34-27; Chargers -1.5 covered with a margin of +7 (ESPN box score).
“Colts plus four at the New York Jets Went from four to three and a half since we last met. Also since we last met, Anthony Richardson back in the starting lineup. Soon after that, the line moved back to Colts plus four. Are you as in love with the colts in this game as I am? No. I'm not. No. You're not. I'm betting it because I think it's a good number. I don't think this Jets team should be a four point favorite against anybody, but”
NYJ 27, IND 28 — Colts beat Jets 28-27; Colts +4 covered with a margin of +1 (ESPN box score).
“I benefit from this myself. If you wanna bet this better to bet three six five, this week's boosted parlay, steelers plus the chiefs.”
PIT 18, BAL 16; BUF 30, KC 21 — Parlay busts: Steelers beat Ravens 18-16 so Steelers ML won, but Bills beat Chiefs 30-21 so Chiefs ML lost, sinking the 2-leg parlay (ESPN box scores).
“Are we missing it? Are we trying to catch a falling knife with the Steelers? Then you remember that they do this all the time with Doug Hodges. Right? Right. That's that's my point to you. One is, like, do we bet this number with Mason Rudolph? We have to bet this with Russell Wilson. At least he's, like, not a functioning quarterback. I don't know why it makes this one sort of Alright. Simon says it. We gotta make it Simon says. Alright. Simon says. Simon says three and a half. Go grab it. Were you not planning on doing that? No. There's another game, but they just I sent a little bit of doubt in the force in you, young one. I I need to bring you back around. This is this is the game we always bet. I've already bet it. You can look you can look in the app. I grabbed it at three and a half. Good, man. I made two bets so far. Both of them are based on conversations we had on Sunday, but I don't know. Just like”
PIT 18, BAL 16 — Steelers beat Ravens 18-16; Steelers covered +3.5 with a margin of +2 (ESPN box score).
“I mean, you talk about it. Like, this is just us playing a number. At three and a half, especially in contest at at Pittsburgh at home and divisional game against this Ravens team, who they've always done well against. This is the only team that Lamar really struggles against, in the division especially. So, yeah, I like Pittsburgh. I like the number. Tomlin is a dog. It's just good to us. It's same thing as last week. Like, it's not easy bent against these great quarterbacks, which we”
PIT 18, BAL 16 — Steelers beat Ravens 18-16; Steelers covered +3.5 with a margin of +2 (ESPN box score).
“Two and a half. How are we not pulling the trigger on the chiefs?”
BUF 30, KC 21 — Bills beat Chiefs 30-21; Chiefs +2.5 failed to cover, margin -9 (ESPN box score).
“Now it's two and a half on the chiefs, and people know I'm so obsessed with the two and a half numbers. So this will be one of our five just like Pittsburgh. I mean, we can literally after the show, Chad, lock our five in if you want because I already know what a couple of them are gonna be. But Pittsburgh, three and a half, it's same as the Chiefs at two and a half here. It might not win people, but long term,”
BUF 30, KC 21 — Bills beat Chiefs 30-21; Chiefs +2.5 failed to cover, margin -9 (ESPN box score).
“Cincinnati at Los Angeles Chargers. Chargers now one and a half. Opened at two and a half. Didn't make sense. We flagged it on Sunday that that the Bengals should not be two and a half point dogs. Moved all the way down to one. Professional money moved the Bengals. It's now back up to one and a five one and a half. Yep. I love the Chargers. Dude, it's so weird that you say that because I know that we we have a soft spot for the Bengals and Joe Burrow, and we don't like betting against them. No. But, like, we have been avoiding this Chargers team because their stat lines in each game are relatively even, and they don't do anything remarkable. They're they're they're beating bad teams. Their losses are the teams that are, like, above average offensive grades across all the geeky advanced metrics that make us feel better. But the thing is they also don't do the stupid things Yeah. That tend to grow those pits in our stomach. Right? They don't get the bad penalties that the Rams got this week. They don't get the missed field goals that the Niners got this week. They're not inconsistent like the colts. They don't have high variance play calls that make us crazy. They don't have turnovers. They're like the biggest one to me. The dump they don't do the dump turnovers, which has been plaguing them for years. It's boring, predictable football. Yeah. So this was going to be my exact decision. So I love that you like the chargers here too. Give me your logic. Yeah. For a lot of what you just said, the matchup wise too, I think, is really good for this team. I know the Bengals just shut down the run kind of last week with the the Ravens team, but that's not who they are. They're not good against the run. And I think that's gonna be really telling this game that they're basically gonna use the run to set up the pass, and that's why Herbert's been so great this year. Like, that middle of the field is so open because these linebackers have to step up because they have to respect the run. And that's really unlocked a lot of stuff he wants to do this year because we know that Herbert's deadly accurate. His his biggest issue has just been the consistency. He's been inconsistent, and Harbaugh has found a rhythm with him that, he knows when he needs an easy one to get going. Like, when he needs just a little short two yard dump off to his tight end just to get him in a little bit of a rhythm, and it's worked out. Like, even when he's out of sync, I've watched other games where he gets him back in sync with a couple easy calls like that. So, when a coach and a quarterback are in tandem like that, it's it's great. It's like they both know what they need to kinda get this thing to work. On the flip side of this Bengals team, you know, we talked Sunday night where it's like, okay. This number is two and a half, and my first thought was just gonna be this is gonna be that biggest public side of the week. Like, everyone's gonna come in on this Bengals team for what you just talked about. It's the fun, sexy team, the high flying offenses team just put up whatever it was, 35, 34 points against the Ravens on Thursday night. Like, it's it makes sense why the public would like this team so much. But to me, looking at this matchup, that number made sense at two and a half. It's like two and a half, three. That's what I would make this Chargers team because there is no road home field advantage for them here, but I just think They're the better team overall. So the movement, that's what makes me like it so much. It's like, this is real good value on this Chargers team. Even if this doesn't win for us because, you know, say Tee Higgins does come back, Chad, maybe we'll get even better of a number. That's why it's like, you don't have to rush to bet this number now. No. I'm taking it now just because”
LAC 34, CIN 27 — Chargers beat Bengals 34-27; Chargers -1.5 covered with a margin of +7 (ESPN box score).
“This is easy bet. I am on bet three six five in New Jersey. The line has flipped to plus one and a half on the Chiefs. Hammer that number on the Chiefs.”
BUF 30, KC 21 — Bills beat Chiefs 30-21; Chiefs lost outright, margin -9 vs +1.5 line, bust (ESPN box score).
“I'll take the seven right away. Like you just said, who are this 49ers team to be getting that seven? I know the seahawks have been bad and everything. We we we get it. But like Chad just said, they're coming off a buy in a divisional game that's a must win for the Seahawks team.”
SF 17, SEA 20 — Seahawks beat 49ers 20-17; Seahawks covered +7 with a margin of +3 (ESPN box score).
“I'm betting I already bet the packers are minus six and a half. What's your view on this? Like, isn't this a huge smash spot for Green Bay?”
CHI 19, GB 20 — Packers beat Bears 20-19; Packers -6.5 failed to cover, margin only +1 (ESPN box score).
“you basically just need to go two for three on this thing to get money because that's how big of a dog right now the Cowboys are. Alright. Who are your biggest bets right now? Yeah. Right off the top, Pittsburgh plus three. If you can still find it, love it. Obviously, the Giants at five and a half, it's gone. So now that's not gonna be one my bigger bets. It's up to six and a half. Colts right now, them and them and Pittsburgh, would say my two biggest. Lions I'm waiting on, Detroit, that's gonna be my bigger bets depending on, who's healthy for Houston.”
WSH 27, PIT 28 — Steelers beat Commanders 28-27; Pittsburgh +3 covers, winning outright (ESPN box score).
“looking at the matchup with this Bills team, you can attack the middle field. You can run it down their throat if you can establish it. And that's what the Colts wanna do, though. That's that's literally what their identity is built around this team is. They basically ride down your throat. Once you have the the safety you step up, they just take deep shots. And, we've seen that even Anthony Richardson, how Joe Flacco is happy to run that same exact type of offense where it's like, okay. Bring the safeties down to stop the run. That's when we'll attack these teams deep. And, offensively, obviously, we're scared of this Bills team. You know, we're they're To be able to move the ball. It's can the Colts keep up with them offensive? I I think that can in this matchup. So, another game, I mean, you were just really playing the number. I think this number should be three. It's four, three and a half. We're happy to still take the four if you can find it.”
IND 20, BUF 30 — Bills beat Colts 30-20; Indianapolis +4 busts, losing by 10 (ESPN box score).
“I bet at eight and a half. It's in the Action Network app. It's now at eight. I like the Broncos here. Like, I'm I'm not afraid of it in any way.”
KC 16, DEN 14 — Chiefs beat Broncos 16-14; Denver +8.5 covers, losing by only 2 (ESPN box score).
“I'm happy this is not gonna be one of our five, and we don't have to because I'm I I did bet the bronco is eight and a half”
KC 16, DEN 14 — Chiefs beat Broncos 16-14; Denver +8.5 covers, losing by only 2 (ESPN box score).
“New Orleans saints plus three and a half at home against the Atlanta falcons. Look. The line moved from three to four. It touched four. I grabbed it at four yesterday. I had already bettered at three and a half.”
NO 20, ATL 17 — Saints beat Falcons 20-17; New Orleans +4 covers, winning outright (ESPN box score).
“San Francisco, six point road favorite at Tampa Bay. As I sort of did more and more work on on this game yesterday, I just loved it more and more. Love the niners here. It was at five and a half yesterday. I bet it at five and a half. It's in the app. I still like it at six.”
TB 20, SF 23 — 49ers beat Buccaneers 23-20; San Francisco -5.5 busts, winning by only 3 (ESPN box score).
“I just decided the Jets would decide. Like, every everything made sense to me. Even as, like, a one point favorite, I know we hate betting against the line flip, but we did it.”
ARI 31, NYJ 6 — Cardinals beat Jets 31-6; New York Jets -1 busts, losing outright by 25 (ESPN box score).
“So I grabbed Dallas at seven and a half. It's moved to seven.”
DAL 6, PHI 34 — Eagles beat Cowboys 34-6; Dallas +7.5 busts, losing by 28 (ESPN box score).
“eagles across the board are a much better team. Yeah. Hertz is o for three in his career in Dallas. But at seven and a half, I don't mind taking the number. I I bet this number.”
DAL 6, PHI 34 — Eagles beat Cowboys 34-6; Dallas +7.5 busts, losing by 28 (ESPN box score).
“this game is just a really great Thursday game, and we're just playing the number, but it's one that I'm happy we can't put in the contest, honestly, Chad, because I could see us taking this Bengals team, and they're just having some type of heartbreak. Right? They're just this season has not gone the way they planned even though Joe Burrow is playing at such a high level and VP level. Man, is their defense bad. Yeah. So it's interesting to me. I feel like we would definitely put this in the context. I wouldn't let us. Like, this is what's been burning us this year, this exact game. Well, look. The the the challenge here is and it's at six, I'd still bet it at six, by the way. I did bet it at six.”
BAL 35, CIN 34 — Ravens beat Bengals 35-34; Cincinnati +6 covers, losing by only 1 (ESPN box score).
“this game is just a really great Thursday game, and we're just playing the number, but it's one that I'm happy we can't put in the contest, honestly, Chad, because I could see us taking this Bengals team, and they're just having some type of heartbreak. Right? They're just this season has not gone the way they planned even though Joe Burrow is playing at such a high level and VP level. Man, is their defense bad. Yeah. So it's interesting to me. I feel like we would definitely put this in the context. I wouldn't let us. Like, this is what's been burning us this year, this exact game. Well, look. The the the challenge here is and it's at six, I'd still bet it at six, by the way. I did bet it at six. Yeah. I bet it at six. I bet it at six.”
BAL 35, CIN 34 — Ravens beat Bengals 35-34; Cincinnati +6 covers, losing by only 1 (ESPN box score).
“So here, it won't matter because we'll we'll be down by two at the time he does it, and we won't even care. We'll get the cover. So this will not be in my money line round robin. This will not be I won't do that to people because I don't think they're gonna win. I think Atlanta, they have whatever the saints don't have to win these games close at the end. Atlanta's has it. Right? Kirk has done it this season in multiple different games. So, yeah, this is not what I'm putting too much in the money line, but plus plus three and a half now. I'm definitely grabbing this year.”
NO 20, ATL 17 — Saints beat Falcons 20-17; New Orleans +3.5 covers, winning outright (ESPN box score).
“We liked the idea of backing the Saints. The line popped at three and a half in a lot of places. It's now back down to three. Home division dogs last two seasons, 40% against the spread, so not a great Killing me. Yeah. Not a great spot there. But now are we in for the dead cat bounce? Is the team so thoroughly embarrassed it can rally at home against the falcons team whose record is just much, much better than its numbers? Can they do it without Chris Olave? Can they do it as a dog off a loss as a seven point favorite, by the way, since 2,003? 60% against the spread for teams in that spot. I mean, look. This to me feels like if we're going contrarian, if we're gonna fade the public, if we're gonna do everything that is the opposite of what the square thing would be, you take the saints here. No brainer. Automatic. One of our five.”
NO 20, ATL 17 — Saints beat Falcons 20-17; New Orleans +3 covers, winning outright (ESPN box score).
“Simon says give me Pittsburgh plus three.”
WSH 27, PIT 28 — Steelers beat Commanders 28-27; Pittsburgh +3 covers, winning outright (ESPN box score).
“Dallas cowboys, exact decision. Oh. Plus seven and a half.”
DAL 6, PHI 34 — Eagles beat Cowboys 34-6; Dallas +7.5 busts, losing by 28 (ESPN box score).
“I'm also gonna bet the Eagles minus 13 and a half because I could easily see them just blow this Cowboys team out.”
DAL 6, PHI 34 — Eagles beat Cowboys 34-6; Philadelphia -13.5 covers, winning by 28 (ESPN box score).
“yes, I am taking the minus three and a half, and I'll take the three. I think this is a total head fake by the professionals, and they're just moving the number to get a better number on the Detroit team.”
HOU 23, DET 26 — Lions beat Texans 26-23; Detroit -3.5 busts, winning by only 3 (ESPN box score).
“I'm like, I hammered Detroit when it popped on three. I was hoping it'd get it'd be today for the three because that was gonna be my Simon Says pick.”
HOU 23, DET 26 — Lions beat Texans 26-23; Detroit -3 pushes, winning by exactly 3 (ESPN box score).
“A game I didn't bet, I just wanna get your your opinion on. Monday nighter, the Rams are minus two and a half against that Miami team. Can we grab that now? I saw that. And, like, honestly, I I know we just feel like we got away with one there, but, like Yeah. We talked that we we we two two is not good against good teams. And this Yeah. This ram's team is much you wanna give them shit for. This was a complete team win today. Like, that was that's what good teams do. They win games they shouldn't win. So there were two reasons why I didn't bring it up. One was I already saw us looking at Houston, and so I was nervous about bringing up two back to back primetime games, Sunday night, Monday night. And I was waiting on to see what happened with the end of the seahawks game. Yeah. I just wanna grab it just because I I I I think that number goes up to three, so I just wanna grab the two and a half now.”
LAR 15, MIA 23 — Dolphins beat Rams 23-15; Los Angeles Rams -2.5 busts, losing outright (ESPN box score).
“they're minus six right now against Cincinnati Bengals. I'm gonna take the plus six. Like, Joe Burrow against that defense, if you wanna grab that number early with me, I'll grab that now because I think that number goes down as well.”
BAL 35, CIN 34 — Ravens beat Bengals 35-34; Cincinnati +6 covers, losing by only 1 (ESPN box score).
“I'll take Denver in this big number. It's it's just to me, it's too big. If this was seven and a half, maybe seven, I could come around this Ravens team. The fact that it's crossed seven and a half key number, eight and a half key number, and still at nine, I'll be I'll be the Joe Public sucker. I'll take the nine.”
BAL 41, DEN 10 — Ravens beat Broncos 41-10; Denver +9 busts by a wide margin (ESPN box score).
“New Orleans at Carolina. This one is up to seven and a half, Simon. It was at seven, and I think it's trending to eight. It was at seven when we spoke on Tuesday. We liked it then. The saints, minus seven and a half. Look. It's it's oddly a pro's Joe's game with the public on the panthers and the money on the saints, and, like, the money that has moved it to seven and a half. I can't believe there are enough tickets on this game to have any kind of credible formula at all. It is by far the least bet game of any NFL game Name according to the number of tickets tracked in the Action Network app. I can't believe the majority of tickets are in the Panthers, but here we are. We live in a world in which we have to choose between the Saints and the Panthers. We've decided to cast our lot with the saints as more than touchdown favorites with a on the road, in the division, all bad trends for us. Yep. A quarterback in Derek Carr who is not just one of the worst in the NFL as a favorite. He is one step up from last as a favorite against the spread in the past twenty years. He's got a coach who was amongst the worst 10 coaches against the spread in the past twenty years, but we're doing it, and I feel fine. Yeah. You left out the best part. The saints have lost six games in a row since starting two and a. I mean, we're seeing historical stuff here. So You know what? Yeah. This is you're right. This this we slacked about it earlier, and, like, I couldn't I was giving you a couple options, like, for big balls, and and this was on the list, and you chose this one. And I'm like, yeah. This makes sense. This one takes balls. We're finally doing it, though. I'm so happy we're on this show. We're finally fading this Carolina team. For our fans, for our listeners. You know we're fucked. I I was that's what was about to say. This is only gonna end in one way, and it's gonna be us losing this season one of our five. But we have to do it.”
CAR 23, NO 22 — Panthers beat Saints 23-22; Saints -7.5 busts, losing outright (ESPN box score).
“By this morning, I maybe had three, but I, like, didn't feel great about a lot of games. One of the games, like, I definitely started coming around to, New England plus three and a half at Tennessee.”
TEN 20, NE 17 — Titans beat Patriots 20-17 in OT; New England +3.5 covers, losing by only 3 (ESPN box score).
“didn't feel great about a lot of games. One of the games, like, I definitely started coming around to, New England plus three and a half at Tennessee. The trends back taking the pats. Do that. Teams off off a blowout loss who are then favored at home only cover 42% of the time the following week, past twenty years. Interesting. Money and tickets both on the paths, and this number hasn't budged. That worries me a little bit. Are we getting Will Levis at QB? Seems likely. Are we getting Jacoby Brissett? Seems likely. But then there's this, and we've talked about this. Hey. The titans stink. Like, they're tanking. They've traded away every player of of value. This week, it was Deontay Johnson. I'm not I'm thinking about the panthers. But the titans stink. They've traded away their best players. The titans just played the lions. Teams coming off a game against the lions tend to crater the next game because it is such a physical game. We just saw it with the Vikings too. That that is a hard road to travel and then be a home favorite of more than a field goal. That feels like an opportunity for us. Yeah. We talked on Tuesday. This is a bizarre line. We knew it gonna be the public dog of the week because everyone's you know, they're they're like us. They're looking at this saying, what in the world? What is this number? Why is it not just two and a half or three? You're gonna give us the hook. If it's a trap, me and Chad will walk into it holding hands. I mean, what else can we do here? This is too good of a number. This Tennessee team is terrible. How can you not bet on the patriots to win this game outright as well? It's just everything lines up where,”
TEN 20, NE 17 — Titans beat Patriots 20-17 in OT; New England +3.5 covers, losing by only 3 (ESPN box score).
“Miami at Buffalo. Buffalo minus six. This was my exact decision. Yeah. Loved it on Sunday night when it was at six. Bet up to six and a half.”
BUF 30, MIA 27 — Bills beat Dolphins 30-27; Buffalo -6 busts, winning by only 3 (ESPN box score).
“Detroit at Green Bay, Green Bay three and a half. This was Simon Says. I will say this is the game I've bet the most on this week. I've enjoyed getting the money down at three and a half.”
GB 14, DET 24 — Lions beat Packers 24-14; Green Bay -3.5 busts, losing outright (ESPN box score).
“Detroit at Green Bay, Green Bay three and a half. This was Simon Says. I will say this is the game I've bet the most on this week. I've enjoyed getting the money down at three and a half. It's been getting closer and closer to three.”
GB 14, DET 24 — Lions beat Packers 24-14; Green Bay -3.5 busts, losing outright (ESPN box score).
“against the spread the past five seasons, that's great since we've already bet the rams at plus one and a half.”
LAR 26, SEA 20 — Rams beat Seahawks 26-20 in OT; Los Angeles Rams +1.5 covers, winning outright (ESPN box score).
“my real big money bets that I bet on this Rams team have all come at minus one, minus one and a half.”
LAR 26, SEA 20 — Rams beat Seahawks 26-20 in OT; Los Angeles Rams -1.5 covers, winning by 6 (ESPN box score).
“Dallas at Atlanta. Atlanta's a two and a half point favorite. I've changed my mind as often as Jerry Jones threatens reporters in the past forty eight hours. Betting Atlanta feels like a trap. Feels like when I walked into the Cincinnati Bear trap last week, and you tried to talk me out of it. You called me a fool. I didn't do it, and I got screwed. All of Atlanta's defense has come all of Atlanta's offense has come by playing the Bucks twice and the Panthers. Kirk Cousins, literally, eight touchdowns a thousand yards against the Panthers and the Bucks. Like, against any defense with a decent pass rush and people who can cover, they're a mediocre team. So the question becomes, do the Cowboys have a decent pass rush? Probably not. Micah Parsons still is not practiced. By the sounds of it from Mike McCarthy, he wasn't close to getting back on the field. Cornerback Doron Bland was expected to practice today. It's Thursday. We don't know what's happened yet. Maybe the Cowboys were better in coverage. Are they Team that has shown they have the ability to respond to adversity. Not really. This is a split across the board. You know? We didn't talk about it in in sharp calls. Like, I wanted to bet the Cowboys on Tuesday. You kinda talked me out of it. If this game gets to three, I'd probably wanna bet the Cowboys. I don't feel good enough to put it in the contest for sure. No. No. I like Atlanta. I think Cowboys are just a bad team. You know, last week, we took them because we thought they had major injuries to the 40 niners, and we should have adjusted. Right? When Kittle and Deebo came back, that was should've been our mark to move off it. We didn't take it serious. Then what happened? Kittle had, like, the game of his life. Right? He dominated that game. He kinda flipped it. They lose by six. We faded this team against Pittsburgh. Once again, I'd make that bet 10 out of 10 times, especially this Pittsburgh team we've seen this year. We just got unlucky. Right? Dak drove the field on a fourth down, completed this insane pass. It was third receiver to beat us. Then they beat the Giants, you know, and it kinda another fluky win, and then they opened the season by beating Cleveland. So they have three wins this season. Easily could have one, maybe two wins. The Cowboys are just a bad team. They are so bad. That's why I can't imagine putting money on them right now that they gotta be filling in the locker room, and there's no adjustments to make. They they can't stop the run, and they can't run the football. There's nothing they can do, Chad. They're they're dead in the water. There is no adjustments to be made. Then all the players, it's just we we knew coming to the season, it was gonna be bad for them. I didn't know it was gonna be this bad for this Cowboys team. It's just it it's terrible. So could they steal this game, Chad? Yeah. I think you nailed it. Like, whoever's the ball last, let's talk about this on Tuesday. That's why I wouldn't bet it either. It's like, I'm bet I did bet Atlanta, I should say, but I wouldn't make this one over five because it's whoever whoever the ball last, I could see them winning this game. Right? It's Cowboys, Dak, he's that good of a quarterback. He didn't see that connection. They could drive the field. I mean, we had opportunity against 49ers. They could have drove the field and got us that upset win. I like that's what we're gonna have every week with this Cowboys team. They play mediocre mediocre teams. Right? And that's what this Atlanta team is. We don't think they're that great of a team. That's why we're both hesitant to take it. Yeah, there's threes out there if you do want the Cowboys, Chad. I'm I am on Atlanta, but it's one of my smaller bets. I just”
ATL 27, DAL 21 — Falcons beat Cowboys 27-21; Atlanta -2.5 covers, winning by 6 (ESPN box score).
“I just have no reason not to bet the Bills here. I I will never forget. We had a cover where, basically, the the Bills outgained Miami by, like, 300 yards in Miami. I mean, you still covered that Miami bet. So I'm shocked they didn't win that game as well, but this is we had this one circled. I didn't care if the professional are coming on Miami and that they were gonna try to bully us again this week. There is no way this isn't one of our five. Like, I love this favorite. I bet this favorite. I will have this in a ton of teasers. I am happy to lose money on this type of bet just because Josh Allen has been so good to me in these type of spots in this exact kind of game where it's his team versus a bad team that's I get it. They're desperate. This is for their season. Josh Allen coming off a huge road win. You expect them to have a letdown game. I don't think so. I think they view this as a a divisional game with a team they do not like. And, again, they know if they win this, they basically close out their division for the most part midway through the season. I mean, they're about to close out their division on whatever it is, November 3, November 7, which has just gotta be the greatest feeling ever as a fan. So, yeah, I I love this for the Bills. It's a statement game. It's a great number right now, especially there's a couple of books showing six still. I mean, I love that.”
BUF 30, MIA 27 — Bills beat the Dolphins 30-27; Buffalo won by only 3, failing to cover -6 (ESPN box score).
“But we're Green Bay, three and a half. Simon says Green Bay plus three and a half. Time to fade. The boys from River City, who we love. No disrespect.”
GB 14, DET 24 — Lions beat the Packers 24-14; Green Bay lost by 10, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“you know, Denver's defense is no just walkover. Their their defense actually play Fierce. Yes. I agree. And I just think this is way too much way too much number not to take a a plus nine. I I wanted to avoid this game just because we are so due for a Ravens just to roll a team by 30 points and Denver to play bad. Right? I mean, they're literally half a game away from hitting their win total. We're not even at the midway point. Like, this is a team that has overachieved so much, and then we have a team in the Ravens that are a veteran team coming off a brutal divisional loss. This is usually where they kill a team like this, especially the rookie quarterback. So Yes. Just being weird. Not guaranteed to be one of our five, but, man, am I I mean, I'm betting this right now. Like, literally, I bet it before it came on the air. The two a couple of books are back up to nine. I'm gonna bet it again just because it's crossed that key number again.”
BAL 41, DEN 10 — Ravens routed the Broncos 41-10; Denver lost by 31, failing to cover +9 (ESPN box score).
“and I'm just not there. So, another game, this is three and a half in our contest. The dogs this week, this is one of the dogs I like. I would not be shocked if you put this in our contest. It's just too many points for a Tennessee team that if they won by three, I think that'd be a great game from Tennessee. On the flip side, the Patriots team, as bad as they've been this year, they've been much better than Tennessee. Like, they they rarely do get blown out. They usually do hang in the games. Like, the only game I can really think of was that Houston game where they really did get dominated from their first snap to the end of the game. You talk about Houston's a really good team. Like, even on the weeks they don't have it all put together, we know once that offense gets rolling, that they're pretty unstoppable. Sam can go for, you know, a bunch of teams that Tennessee's played this year, but overall, to me, Tennessee is a struggle, especially against bad teams this year. And, you know, it's just it's to me, another coaching game where either side of the ball, I don't trust the coaches on either side. I don't know if you have the same feeling here, but it's really just about the spread and, you know, it would be great if it was Broussette, but I wouldn't let Drake May being in there throw me totally off. There's things he can do that Broussette can't do that I actually like about Brissett. So, yeah, that's this is a tricky number right now because we don't have a lot of info on the injuries with both sides, but three and a half, I'll grab that right now just in case it does go back down to three, two and a half.”
TEN 20, NE 17 — Titans beat the Patriots 20-17 in overtime; New England lost by only 3, covering +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Still love them. I'd still bet them because it's under the key number, which we always talk about too. So right now, the highest I'm seeing in Los Angeles minus one and a half at a couple books.”
SEA 20, LAR 26 (OT) — Rams beat the Seahawks 26-20 in overtime, covering -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“old old Simon would have just hopped right on this Jets team. Trust the books here, but I'll I'll take the chalk earlier on Houston. I mean, that Jets team's in total disarray. They're terrible. Yeah. Who are they to be under three points to a a playoff contending team in Houston? I don't care if it's a short week, and they just had a tough divisional game. This is this is a bizarre number by the sports books to hang. And, like, the early money is coming in on the jets. Like, the professionals are coming on the jets. I don't get it. So, I'll I'll take Houston minus one off the bat.”
NYJ 21, HOU 13 — Jets beat the Texans 21-13; Houston lost by 8, failing to cover -1 (ESPN box score).
“alright. The games that we pegged, like, we feel strongest about, Buffalo minus six,”
BUF 30, MIA 27 — Bills beat the Dolphins 30-27; Buffalo won by only 3, failing to cover -6 (ESPN box score).
“And the Raiders are up to eight and a half. So Interesting. Yeah. It's it's a key number. I'll I'll take the Raiders.”
CIN 41, LV 24 — Bengals beat the Raiders 41-24; Las Vegas lost by 17, failing to cover +8.5 (ESPN box score).
“the Giants are plus three and a half against the Commanders. I get it. They're dead, but they Daniel Jones only plays good against one team in his career. It's the Commanders.”
NYG 22, WSH 27 — Commanders beat the Giants 27-22; New York lost by 5, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I bet the cards at three and a half. I bet it because of the number. It wasn't because of anything else. I just wanted to hook with Kyler”
MIA 27, ARI 28 — Cardinals won 28-27 outright over the Dolphins, covering +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Tennessee and Detroit. They got down to 10 and a half. I bet it at 10 and a half. It's back at 11.”
DET 52, TEN 14 — Lions blew out the Titans 52-14, covering -10.5 easily (ESPN box score).
“I have not touched anything Jags three and a half, but I'd still do it. It's just try to get the four. The four is such a key number.”
JAX 27, GB 30 — Packers beat the Jaguars 30-27; Jacksonville lost by 3, covering +4 (ESPN box score).
“India Houston, this was my exact decision. I bettered at six and a half. You bettered at six and a half. Sharp. Sharp. It was yeah. Totally sharp. I'm I'm sharp. It was my exact decision at at when it was at six. It's now down to five. There are places where it's going to four and a half. Like, I don't like it as much now given how much come down. I do still like the matchup. I know everyone is so fixated on Anthony Richardson and how bad his completion percentage is, and it is historically bad. It's terrible. But Jonathan Taylor returned to practice. Right? Yep. If we are looking back to what we talked about on Tuesday, where we have been making sort of blind bets on bad teams and the number and bad quarterbacks regardless of the Coaching skill, all that. This actually fits the framework of what we like in a big underdog. We think we're getting value on the number, but they've got their best skill player behind their most dominant unit, which is their offensive line, which is the best run blocking unit in football. And Shane Steichen, who's a really good play caller, gets his top weapon back for his best unit. So, like, I know Anthony Richardson, like, his comps are historically Josh Freeman, Derrick Anderson, Jamarcus Russell. Like, that's the accuracy comp. Still like the Colts.”
HOU 23, IND 20 — Texans beat the Colts 23-20; Indianapolis lost by 3, covering +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“I don't I don't hate the Browns at nine and a half. I did bet it at nine and a half. I didn't bet it at 10”
CLE 29, BAL 24 — Browns beat the Ravens 29-24 outright, covering +9.5 (ESPN box score).
“We both bet the bears at one and a half even with the injury to Jaden Daniels. I don't love we're betting against the line flip. 42% betting against the line flip since 2019. But Caleb Williams has been doing special things, undefeated in the second half this year against the spread. Only other person is Patrick Mahomes. How bad how bad will Washington be with Marcus Mariota? Like, you you pointed it out on Tuesday how terrible he is. They've had 12 punts this season, the fewest since 1950. They've been perfect on fourth downs and nearly 50% on third downs. All of that changes without Jaden Daniels. So to me, I'm fine betting the bears because I think we have to think about this not as a line flip, but as a new line with the bears as less than a field goal.”
WSH 18, CHI 15 — Commanders beat the Bears 18-15; Chicago lost outright, failing to cover -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“We both bet the bears at one and a half even with the injury to Jaden Daniels. I don't love we're betting against the line flip. 42% betting against the line flip since 2019. But Caleb Williams has been doing special things, undefeated in the second half this year against the spread. Only other person is Patrick Mahomes. How bad how bad will Washington be with Marcus Mariota? Like, you you pointed it out on Tuesday how terrible he is. They've had 12 punts this season, the fewest since 1950. They've been perfect on fourth downs and nearly 50% on third downs. All of that changes without Jaden Daniels. So to me, I'm fine betting the bears because I think we have to think about this not as a line flip, but as a new line with the bears as less than a field goal. Yeah. And the bookmakers are just like me where it's seven points of value from Jane Daniels to Marcus Mariota. So, like, the line flip to me makes total sense. They they need to make that flip because anyone who has a model is gonna see that this is just an offline. So, sure. I mean, you might get caught. Maybe we're stepping in here back in this bears team, but, I think foxhole? Are we in the foxhole with the bears? I'd love to be in the foxhole and the bears. That'd be really nice. I would love to be in a foxhole with you and the bears. Let's go. That would be my dream foxhole. Me, you, and the Chicago freaking bears. We are in the foxhole. You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team. I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy. Just matchup wise, we've talked about it. I love the way this defense can match up against the Washington on offense. We know Washington was gonna have a bunch of regression coming up. Right? Their third down completion rate, it's impossible to sustain that. Being nine for nine on fourth downs, you just can't sustain that type of, consistency for the whole season, especially with a young inexperienced offense that they have with Jane Daniels. Now you say, well, Mariota's coming. That should be different. I really do think Jane Daniels is that much better than Marcus Mariota. Like, that's why I'm so willing to say the line moves so much. It's just night and day. That's not going out on a limb. It's not, but people professionally wise think it is where it's like they think Mario can do a lot of the same stuff that he does, which is, you know, being a mobile quarterback. And I think that there's more to Jay and Daniel's game right now than Marksmario. So my view of this is just bears are smart. Their coaching staff's smart enough. They'll just stack the box, they'll force Marriot to pass the ball. Right? The key to this game will be stopping Brian Robinson and Austin Eckler. Like, you stop the run game, force Marriot to pass, especially on third and eights. Like, that's me and Chad are gonna make our money on third and eights against Mariota. Like, that's where we wanna be where he's gotta pass the ball over 10 yards, and we're gonna get either stupid pass or a tip pass, get some turnovers here with this Bears secondary. That's been so good this season. Offensively, Bears, I can't find the weakness in the matchup for them against this Washington team. Like, Washington this year has been lucky that they've been up in so many leads because it's easy for them to pin their ears back and just rush the passer. Right? And that will not be the case here. I think the the bears will able keep them off balance, especially if this game's close. And the fact that it's still under three is the key to me. Like, I just like that number a lot at two and a half. So, yeah, people can tell listen to this. This is one of my favorite chalker sides of the week is this bears matchup, especially coming off the bye week. I've been trying to figure out which chalky game, which public game we're gonna put in.”
WSH 18, CHI 15 — Commanders beat the Bears 18-15; Chicago lost outright, failing to cover -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“The boosted parlay, no surprise if you've been listening, Dallas cowboys, Indianapolis colts, Go to those game pages at bet three six five to find the boosted power leg.”
Parlay busts: Cowboys lost 24-30 to the 49ers (ESPN box score), and Colts lost 20-23 to the Texans (ESPN box score).
“I'm totally tempted at three and a half. Like, of course, am. I already bet it. You can see it in the app. I bet Arizona at three and a half.”
MIA 27, ARI 28 — Cardinals won 28-27 outright over the Dolphins, covering +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Simon, we're gonna bet the Lions minus 11. Really? You're gonna guarantee this will be in our contest? I feel good about it right now.”
DET 52, TEN 14 — Lions blew out the Titans 52-14, covering -11 easily (ESPN box score).
“I'll follow you on this one. I I do love this Lions team. It's just, you know, it just irks me to take a big favorite. So I gotta kinda push that aside and just know that this is a good number, and it probably should be closer to 14. Dude, we hate taking big favorites, but we do think the number should be much, much higher Yeah. Than 11, and it's come down.”
DET 52, TEN 14 — Lions blew out the Titans 52-14, covering -11 easily (ESPN box score).
“My friend, sack up because we are going with Cincinnati at Cleveland. We are taking the Cleveland Browns at plus six.”
CIN 21, CLE 14 — Bengals beat Browns 21-14; Cleveland margin -7 vs +6, busts (ESPN).
“We are taking the Cleveland Browns at plus six.”
CIN 21, CLE 14 — Bengals beat Browns 21-14; Cleveland margin -7 vs +6, busts (ESPN).
“I I think you still have a lot of value on Detroit at plus one and a half, so I still have no issue taking that number.”
DET 31, MIN 29 — Lions beat Vikings 31-29; Detroit margin +2 vs +1.5, covers (ESPN).
“Green Bay minus two and a half. There are a lot of books that have it at the rate. Houston but we're talking about bet three six five. It's at 2 and a half.”
GB 24, HOU 22 — Packers beat Texans 24-22; Green Bay margin +2 vs -2.5, busts (ESPN).
“No. I agree with them that that's probably the right number. I just still have major questions about this Green Bay team. They're so dependent defensively on turn overs. Like, that's the only thing I could think of is, like, okay. Maybe they'll get the young kid on the road here and get him to turn over. Because you're right. Like, the splits are different between him at home and him on the road. Like you said, it's it's all about the number at the end of the day. And it's like, okay. Two and a half, that's the good number. I trust the guys who are saying that. I I'll take it.”
GB 24, HOU 22 — Packers beat Texans 24-22; Green Bay margin +2 vs -2.5, busts (ESPN).
“Tampa Bay plus three and a half. This was my exact decision. On Tuesday, I love Baker Mayfield against a porous, poorly ranked secondary, twenty first in the league in pass coverage, giving up 275 passing yards per game. By the way, that's thirty first in the league. Just ahead of the Jaguars. I like Vita Vea as an obstacle for the Ravens. Me is the key. Ravens rushing game. Like, that's I think that's really important. The things that worry me are the things that look. Not not everything is a clear decision. Right? These are all gonna be 55 to 60% decisions. We acknowledge betting against Lamar Jackson makes you uncomfortable. You're not gonna be any more uncomfortable than you are betting against Patrick Mahomes, betting against Josh Allen, betting against Lamar Jackson. Like, it's just what happens. And, like, it's infuriating because of his mobility and because of his record against the NFC. And, of course, we worry about Baker doing Baker things, but this is a pro Joe split. I'm sticking with the Bucks.”
BAL 41, TB 31 — Ravens beat Buccaneers 41-31; Tampa Bay margin -10 vs +3.5, busts (ESPN).
“I'm sticking with the Bucks. Yeah. And it's really like you said, it's it's all about V2V. If he can stop this whole Derrick Henry run, that's the key. Like, he's been so incredibly dominant for this Ravens team. Anytime they need a big run, it feels like he gets it for him. And he's been flipped he's flipped a couple games, it seems like, this season for this team. So that's the big one, and I like you talked about it. If Mike Evans is back, him and Godwin against the secondary, that's chef's kiss. It's like this is the perfect matchup for them offensively, especially Baker. You know, as bad as he played against that same team with those turnovers, he had those moments of brilliance where it's just like, man, his arm talent's so good. And when he needs to pull it down and run the ball, he's been doing it this season. Like, when things break down, he's got no issue running the ball. So we like backing Lamar, and it's only when it's under three. I mean, you talk to Nas about that trend. When it's under three, I think he's, what, twenties four and seven at this point I like that. Yeah. Against the spread. When it's above it, we we do wanna fade them. And, you know, last week ended up as being a push of the plus seven on the commanders, but you see why. It's like they're even Lamar's whole career, you know, they they usually they used to blow teams out, but we've seen the last two years, games usually get a little tight. They get a little close towards the end. They really haven't been closing teams out like they used to, and that's why they went out and got Derrick Henry to try to change that. It just has not worked out for them this year. Right? Like, every game for the most part for them has been pretty damn close. So, you know, this is another game, meaning you just trust the number. Right, Chad? It's like, plus three and a half. It's a good number for a home divisional dog or not divisional dog, but a home dog that's, like, still a little underrated to the general public.”
BAL 41, TB 31 — Ravens beat Buccaneers 41-31; Tampa Bay margin -10 vs +3.5, busts (ESPN).
“So, yeah, sitting right now, it's pretty chalky, honestly. It's like I'm pretty heavy on lions at two and a half, but but pretty heavy on them at two. Same with the chiefs, pretty heavy at one and a half.”
KC 28, SF 18 — Chiefs beat 49ers 28-18; Kansas City margin +10 vs +1.5, covers (ESPN).
“Again, another game I got lucky that I locked in early on Tuesday. Jets minus one and a half.”
PIT 37, NYJ 15 — Steelers beat Jets 37-15; New York Jets margin -22 vs -1.5, busts (ESPN).
“I took Atlanta minus two and a half”
SEA 34, ATL 14 — Seahawks beat Falcons 34-14; Atlanta margin -20 vs -2.5, busts (ESPN).
“This week's boosted parlay, Kansas City chiefs, Detroit lions. Find the boost under either chiefs or lions game pages at bet three six five,”
Parlay cashes: Chiefs beat 49ers 28-18 (ML) and Lions beat Vikings 31-29 (ML) (ESPN).
“Chad nailed it. I I like this matchup. We like the plus three and a half with Tampa.”
BAL 41, TB 31 — Ravens beat Buccaneers 41-31; Tampa Bay margin -10 vs +3.5, busts (ESPN).
“It's at six now. You can go grab that if you want the browns, which I do. Go get the browns plus six.”
CIN 21, CLE 14 — Bengals beat Browns 21-14; Cleveland margin -7 vs +6, busts (ESPN).
“So that's why this number's backed down at two and a half, and I'll I'll just take the sucker bet and the home favorite under a field goal in this Atlanta team.”
SEA 34, ATL 14 — Seahawks beat Falcons 34-14; Atlanta margin -20 vs -2.5, busts (ESPN).
“I actually bet the under in this game. That's the first thing I did. I got it at 37 and a half, I think. I will not touch a side in this game.”
DEN 33, NO 10 — Broncos beat Saints 33-10, combined 43; under 37.5 busts (ESPN).
“So I I bet this one is broncos minus one. I'd still take it here at minus two.”
DEN 33, NO 10 — Broncos beat Saints 33-10; Denver margin +23 vs -2, covers (ESPN).
“I'll grab the four and a half. I could see this being going down to four, three and a half by kickoff. It's just even if the public's really heavy on this Baltimore team, I just I can see the professionals coming in on this Buccaneers team, especially four and a half. That's just too many points to me, so I wouldn't grab that right now.”
BAL 41, TB 31 — Ravens beat Buccaneers 41-31; Tampa Bay margin -10 vs +4.5, busts (ESPN).
“you know, that just jumps out to me just to grab it right now is Atlanta's minus two and a half right now against Seattle at home. Don't we have to grab that Atlanta at home under under three against the Seattle defense? So that's why I didn't mention it. Yeah. It's two and a half right now. It'd be through it's minus one twenty. But Okay. Like, to me, that's something I'm gonna bet right now just because Seattle's defense needs to show me they can get stops.”
SEA 34, ATL 14 — Seahawks beat Falcons 34-14; Atlanta margin -20 vs -2.5, busts (ESPN).
“we are going to tell people to do something that will require support because you and I are both in on the New England Patriots, a seven point underdogs at home against the Houston Texans. I like it for the spot. I like it for the matchup. I like it for the number. I like it for the trends. It is our big balls bet of the week.”
HOU 41, NE 21 — Texans beat Patriots 41-21; New England margin -20 fails to cover +7 (ESPN).
“The only pause for me, once again, is just they lost a lot of guys in the offensive line, and that that should benefit this Houston team. But could they be a seven point favorite? I don't think so. Don't think Chad thinks that either. I think this is way too much respect for Houston team that this season, they're one of four against the against the spread. Like, they're a team that the books have no they can prop up, and the public will come in heavy on them, and that's good for the books. So, yeah, I think we're getting an extra point and a half of value here, Chad. So I'll definitely take this number on New England.”
HOU 41, NE 21 — Texans beat Patriots 41-21; New England margin -20 fails to cover +7 (ESPN).
“Well, let's talk about Detroit. Let's talk about Detroit at Dallas. Let's talk about how this number got up to three and a half. This was my exact decision. And I do worry that I'm walking into it a little bit. It's a road favorite. It's the public side. I did bet it at three. I love it based on all the matchups and the fundamentals, especially at the line of scrimmage.”
DET 47, DAL 9 — Lions beat Cowboys 47-9; Detroit margin +38 covers -3 (ESPN).
“Detroit hasn't beat cowboys in Dallas in forever and all these different stuff Throw it away. Like, I throw it out. Exactly. I just don't view it that way. So I'm with Chad here. Give me the best offensive line that's greater run blocking against a suspect defensive line that doesn't have their best run stopping defender. So the only thing I can think here, we're get burned by a bad golf game. Because the last time we saw him, he was perfect. I think he was 18 for 18 in their last win. You know? Coming off a bye week, does that get in his head? Does that get in the whole team's head? Right? Do they come out sluggish in this game against a team that technically, this is a short rest week. Right? They're running away game on Sunday night, so they didn't get home till, what, Monday morning to let their body start healing? It's just everything lines up to love this Detroit team. I do not get this line. So I'm hoping this is just like Washington, Cleveland last week, Chad, where the books are dead fucking wrong hanging a three. Even if this is minus three and a half in contest, I feel like we're gonna force this one in regardless.”
DET 47, DAL 9 — Lions beat Cowboys 47-9; Detroit margin +38 covers -3 (ESPN).
“Chad, let's hop in that foxhole. Give me the Carolina panthers plus six. You know me regardless of what's going on. I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team.”
ATL 38, CAR 20 — Falcons beat Panthers 38-20; Carolina margin -18 fails to cover +6 (ESPN).
“Arizona Green Bay. Green Bay, still a five point favorite. I am shocked that there is no conversation about this game from professionals. There was, but it's split. It's like the line isn't really moving. Like, everything I said on Tuesday still to me is true today. It's kind of a funky line. The eye test makes me lean, Packers, cardinals just won their biggest game of the year. Like, the biggest difference is to me. The cardinals are a very public dog, and that makes me feel better about the packers right now. I don't have it up. I I've lost the tab, but the public number on this game, real quickly, I'm getting to it, is, you know, 60% of the tickets are on the cardinals, 63% of the money on the cardinals. So feels like, at least from a public point of view, they like the Cardinals, which makes me like the Packers even more. Yeah. And the professional bettors I talked to, it's split where the trend bettors, people who just simply bet trends, they love the Cardinals in this spot. A lot of really good trends to this Cardinals team a lot of good trends that fade Green Bay in this spot. But a lot of the professionals I talked to, they like what we like here with Green Bay kind of in a nice spot against the cardinals team that, you know, we expect to have a letdown game. But, yeah, after reading Evan's article, I I got a little bit of pushback on that. Kyler's actually not as bad as you think he would be in this spot historically. Teams after, you know, beating divisional divisional games as a big underdog actually performed pretty well on this spot going on the road back to back weeks. But I don't know, Chad. There's something I can't shake here where it feels like we're still getting value. And it's like, well, I still think this number should be closer to six and a half, seven. I still like it if you still like it. If you wanna put it in as one of our favorites, I honestly wouldn't fight you on it. It's like, I bet this number. I bet Green Bay in this spot.”
GB 34, ARI 13 — Packers beat Cardinals 34-13; Green Bay margin +21 covers -5 (ESPN).
“a couple of books moved to the two and a half, I bet it. It's like, okay. Now it's under three. I might as well take the chargers here.”
LAC 23, DEN 16 — Chargers beat Broncos 23-16; Los Angeles margin +7 covers -2.5 (ESPN).
“It's three and a half. I'm gonna take the value and play the Giants here.”
CIN 17, NYG 7 — Bengals beat Giants 17-7; New York margin -10 fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN).
“the boosted money line parlay is Panthers, Jets. Find the boost under either the Panthers or Jets game pages on bet three six five.”
2-team boosted moneyline parlay busts: Panthers ML lost (Falcons beat Panthers 38-20) and Jets ML lost (Bills beat Jets 23-20), per ESPN.
“So the money line round robin, that is gonna be panthers, jets, giants, broncos, Colts.”
ATL 38-CAR 20; BUF 23-NYJ 20; CIN 17-NYG 7; LAC 23-DEN 16; IND 20-TEN 17 — 5-team moneyline round robin busts: Panthers ML lost (ATL 38-CAR 20), Jets ML lost (BUF 23-NYJ 20), Giants ML lost (CIN 17-NYG 7), Broncos ML lost (LAC 23-DEN 16), Colts ML won (IND 20-TEN 17); with only 1 of 5 legs winning, every 2-leg round-robin combination loses, per ESPN.
“Give me the path plus seven.”
ATL 38, CAR 20 — Falcons beat Panthers 38-20; Carolina margin -18 fails to cover +7 (ESPN).
“Exact decision was Detroit. I'm taking the minus three. It's available widely.”
DET 47, DAL 9 — Lions beat Cowboys 47-9; Detroit margin +38 covers -3 (ESPN).
“But you said on a Sunday night, Detroit at minus three. It's gone up to three and a half. I don't think that's public money earlier in the week. I think that's pros betting on the lions, and I don't disagree. I got a whole boatload of research and matchup that makes me feel that way, but you're still feeling that way. Detroit. You've won my heart. Yeah. How is this not a slam dunk? Another great match for Detroit. Like, all their strengths is this Cowboys team weaknesses. Like, they should be able to run it down Dallas' throat. And defensively, I don't think they mind back passing the ball a lot. Like, their defense can get turnovers. They're not as bad as they used to be, especially in the secondary. So, yeah, I I love this matchup, especially when it's at three, but this is gonna be the most public side of the week. I mean, how does every Joe public not walk in and take a minus three on the lines here? I just I think everyone's looking at this Dallas team and just thinking fraudulent, like, across the board. There's just so many things you don't trust about them, and You know, hat tip to deck. That was incredible. Him him drive I had no faith that he was gonna actually drive that field against that Pittsburgh defense. It was just vintage. Pittsburgh finds a way to win that game, an ugly game. That's such a Tomlin game where he wins. And, you know, sure enough, I think it was, like, a bad snap. They fumble out of the back, whatever it was, and it's, like, fourth and four. I was like, there's no way they're gonna get this. And Dak, big time throw, perfect touch, put it right where he needed to. That's that's why you pay a guy like him that that kind of money. It's like, he to me needed that kind of that kind of game. Right? That could be something where maybe we're missing them. They're riding into this game high, and they do show up and play well against the Detroit team that might be a little sluggish coming off their bye week. But me and Chad don't know that shit. You can't bet on that. Models won't predict this stuff. So I have this number of four and a half. I have a ton of value right now on Detroit. So, unfortunately, like, I'm I'm hoping Chad's right there is professional money coming out, but I'm with the public now. Like, there's still a couple books that have threes out there. We get off this call. I'm heading right down Atlantic City making a bunch of bets on Detroit. So I love this side.”
DET 47, DAL 9 — Lions beat Cowboys 47-9; Detroit margin +38 covers -3 (ESPN).
“So give me Giants plus three and a half. It's really more about Cincinnati and and their defense.”
CIN 17, NYG 7 — Bengals beat Giants 17-7; New York margin -10 fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN).
“huge gap between New England and Houston, and and Nico Collins probably is gonna be out. And we saw what happened when Nico Collins out against Buffalo. And so I do think that bodes well for us. Again, I'm not saying we're gonna put it in the contest. We did bet it. Both of us have bet it. You can see it in the app. I bet it at seven, but we're not gonna put it in the contest, Simon. We're not putting it in the contest. Why do you keep saying that? Because we're gonna end up putting in the contest. Yeah. I was just saying, like, to me, this is just this is a game we can't avoid. Like, I knew we're gonna love this number on Sunday night, and it's like, this is what the show does. We bet these type of spots. Am I a little scared because it's Drake May coming in? Not really, honestly. I mean, I saw there was throws to make for Brissett, and he just didn't make them. Like, that's a guy that just isn't that good. And, like, just watching these rookies, like, okay. There is upside with these guys once they get it figured out. The hesitation for me is we're betting on a rookie in his first game. Like, that that's always a scary proposition. And you saw it this year. Look how much these QBs have grown just this year, these three starters from their week one game. Right? Jane Daniels, you wouldn't even recognize if you go back and watch his week one tape. Caleb Williams too. So, yeah, I would say same Caleb Williams. So that's the thing right exactly now. The same. He looks exactly the same. That that's a fear with us betting this number. It's like we're get we're getting a rookie in this spot, but I love Drake May's tape so much. I love his upside so much. It's like, he to me, he's gonna bring such another element to this offense with him being able run the ball. Like, people don't understand. He's sneakily athletic. Obviously, he's a great arm. Like, there's just gonna be a bunch of bunch of throws we're gonna need him to make, Chad, that we're gonna be relying on this rookie for if it is the starter. So I'm grabbing the seven now.”
HOU 41, NE 21 — Texans beat Patriots 41-21; New England margin -20 fails to cover +7 (ESPN).
“huge gap between New England and Houston, and and Nico Collins probably is gonna be out. And we saw what happened when Nico Collins out against Buffalo. And so I do think that bodes well for us. Again, I'm not saying we're gonna put it in the contest. We did bet it. Both of us have bet it. You can see it in the app. I bet it at seven,”
HOU 41, NE 21 — Texans beat Patriots 41-21; New England margin -20 fails to cover +7 (ESPN).
“And because of that, does that mean there is a greater chance Washington has to keep this game close? Are you still leaning Washington six and a half? I am, but the professionals think that Washington gets absolutely rolled here by this Ravens team. They like the matchup for the Ravens. They like the veteranship of the Ravens versus young Washington team, but I keep pushing back against them. You guys have said that for the last two straight weeks. You said that against Arizona, and you said it again against Cleveland. And I know some sharp groups that were heavy on Cleveland. I mean, they really moved that number. It was three and a half. A lot of books are back down to three before kick. Like, that's some really heavy sharp money moving that number down because so much public money was on Washington. I I told you this to me was gonna be the most public play of the week for me. Like, I knew this was gonna be a really heavy public dog, and it feels like Arizona last week. Like, I'm I'm trying to learn how to get bullied off this one because I do see their reasoning that, yes, no one's denying Baltimore is, you know, what, number two team right now in the AFC. I mean, you could even you wanted to put them above KC, but I wouldn't. But it's just they've played that well against a really tough schedule, and they probably should you know, a couple things bounced their way. They probably should be the top of the AFC right now. Like, they should have probably beat the Chiefs and a bunch of other stuff. So Yeah. I get the love for the Ravens, but it's just like, isn't this a good matchup for Jayne Daniels? You just said it. The Ravens can be passed on. This kid has a great arm, and he's comfortable right now. So there there you're right. There's something I need to dive into more, but I had bet this at plus six and a half.”
BAL 30, WSH 23 — Ravens beat Commanders 30-23; Washington margin -7 fails to cover +6.5 (ESPN).
“So, yep, let's let's take, this this Jets seem to bounce back after firing their coach and take the plus two and a half, Chad.”
BUF 23, NYJ 20 — Bills beat Jets 23-20; New York margin -3 fails to cover +2.5 (ESPN).
“What are we doing, Chad? Gotta bet the New York Jets. Yeah. That's the only choice. And, unfortunately, we were really hoping this would be up to plus three. I don't think it's ever gonna get there now. No. Like, especially after him getting fired, I think it was gonna be just professionals on this Jets team here. Now I think a little bit of public money will come in them as well. So, love the Jets. Like, this back to back weeks, we're really gonna wait till Monday night for our picks, but I just felt like this is gonna be one of our five coming into this week. Historically, Josh Allen doesn't match up well against his Shets team. Like, defensively, they know how to kinda attack him, make him uncomfortable. Now is when he had Diggs and Gabe Davis, guys, he kinda relied on. Now You saw last week. Right? He struggled throwing the ball downfield just because he doesn't really have a rhythm or trust his receivers. I don't know what's going on, but it did not look right. Now only the city of P only people living in Buffalo or fans of Buffalo think he didn't sustain a concussion. I think any of us I've gone back and rewatched it. It's just like, oh my god. That was not a chest injury. No. Whatever whatever they're trying to spin, it's total bullshit. I think it's the NFL classic. We got a guy playing on Monday night. We we can't have him missing this prime time game. They're gonna make him he's gonna be clear. He's gonna be practicing. He's gonna play in this game. I I have no doubt we will see Josh Allen. So, yeah, this is a a nice nice spot to take the Jets in a in a would we call this a buy low? I mean, this, like, this to me, this is like everything's kinda going wrong right now for the Jets. Everything's kinda negative. Already kinda love this spot just the matchup wise. Our only fear is Aaron Rodgers has not looked right in weeks. I mean, he's just been bad. Like, he's missing bad throws. When there's any bit of pressure, he folds up rather than alluding it. So I get people's hesitation here, but this is really about playing this number in this divisional spot. This to me is closer to a pick. We're getting about, what, a point and a half, two points of free value just because everyone's so down on this Jets team where I don't think the Bills are that much better. Like, this team has major issues and major holes, things that can be exploited, especially by this Jets team. So, yep, let's let's take, this this Jets seem to bounce back after firing their coach and take the plus two and a half, Chad. We are getting what, we at the Action Network like to call the dead cat bounce.”
BUF 23, NYJ 20 — Bills beat Jets 23-20; New York margin -3 fails to cover +2.5 (ESPN).
“Arizona, Green Bay Green Bay five point favorite. This is a funky line. Like, I'm surprised it hasn't moved one way. It did. It went up to five and a half. It came back down. But Oh, it did? I didn't even see that. Yeah. Like, I I said this on Sunday night. The eye test, the fade test, it all makes me wanna take I'm with you. The packers. Yeah. And even though, like, I don't have much value on this line either, I have to get it as good. I think it's a good number, and I I think this the book hungover a good number to get fair action on both sides pretty much. Like, you know, if you took Arizona last week and you're feeling pretty good on the flip side, Green Bay, it feels like they kinda stole one last week and that, you know, Jordan Love has looked rusty since coming back from this injury. Right? He's not really in a rhythm. You know, they also have a bunch of drama right now with who was it? Dobbs? I remember those numbers. Yeah. Yeah. Was getting upset because they weren't getting touches even though he was second on the team in the at the wide receiver position in touches, which is just it was very wide receiver like to be a diva in that sense, but I'm with you. I've actually come around on this green bag. You're right. This is like a nice spot. On the flip side, if we lose this, I'll be happy for our future market because this is like, okay. This is really Kyler truly taking that next step. Because I said it before that 49ers game. I thought he had regressed after the Rams game. Like, he was so good that you were like, okay. He's gonna keep getting better throughout the season. Did not happen. Right? And then, thankfully, he played pretty damn well against that 49ers team. Here is even more so. Like, this is what me and Chad are saying here is we don't believe in you, Kyler. This is a game you always lose, and you never cover. You always have a letdown after these big wins historically. So I'm with you. This is literally a prove it to me kinda bet here on this on this Green Bay Team. We're saying to the Arizona, it's like, okay. You guys are gonna be the sixth, seventh seed this year, maybe contend for your division. This is a game you must win, and don't think they're going to. I I do think this is a good matchup for Green Bay, especially the way they've been running the ball. This is a nice matchup defensively as well, for takeaways against Kyler. So I'm with you, Chad. It took me a minute to come around. I wasn't there Sunday night, but now here on Tuesday. I'm with you. I like this Green Bay. This might be one of our only favorites we agree on, but I think we both like this side. Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose, Simon, and that's what we have right now. The it's interesting you say that about Kyler. We don't we don't love Green Bay's defense necessarily as a unit. No. But we have to give them credit for their ability to ballhawk. Right? And they picked up a couple more interceptions against the rams on Sunday. And this is a situation Kyler has the tendency to just backflip toss it. He will try to make it a fifty fifty ball. He will just let it loose. He does that. We all we've talked about the packers and their proclivity. It's SAT season. Proclivity for interceptions this year, with Jeff Halfley, new defensive coordinator. They've already got more picks than they had all of last year. That was true two weeks ago. And so I like the opportunity against Kyler to make some mistakes on the road, a come down spot for sure. But, also, this to me is about the cardinals defense. And, like, Brock Purdy was definitely having his way against that defense. This is not a good pass rush defense. This is not a good pass coverage defense. I think this is a game now. His third game back, Jordan Love gets a little more comfortable. He's back at home. They cannot do the same things that the Vikings did against the packers in his first game where they could confuse him. And don't forget in the second half of that game, he got much better. He brought that team back. So I like to spot for the packers. I don't like to spot for the cardinals, and I find some matchup opportunities”
GB 34, ARI 13 — Packers beat Cardinals 34-13; Green Bay margin +21 covers -5 (ESPN).
“Arizona, Green Bay Green Bay five point favorite. This is a funky line. Like, I'm surprised it hasn't moved one way. It did. It went up to five and a half. It came back down. But Oh, it did? I didn't even see that. Yeah. Like, I I said this on Sunday night. The eye test, the fade test, it all makes me wanna take I'm with you. The packers. Yeah. And even though, like, I don't have much value on this line either, I have to get it as good. I think it's a good number, and I I think this the book hungover a good number to get fair action on both sides pretty much. Like, you know, if you took Arizona last week and you're feeling pretty good on the flip side, Green Bay, it feels like they kinda stole one last week and that, you know, Jordan Love has looked rusty since coming back from this injury. Right? He's not really in a rhythm. You know, they also have a bunch of drama right now with who was it? Dobbs? I remember those numbers. Yeah. Yeah. Was getting upset because they weren't getting touches even though he was second on the team in the at the wide receiver position in touches, which is just it was very wide receiver like to be a diva in that sense, but I'm with you. I've actually come around on this green bag. You're right. This is like a nice spot. On the flip side, if we lose this, I'll be happy for our future market because this is like, okay. This is really Kyler truly taking that next step. Because I said it before that 49ers game. I thought he had regressed after the Rams game. Like, he was so good that you were like, okay. He's gonna keep getting better throughout the season. Did not happen. Right? And then, thankfully, he played pretty damn well against that 49ers team. Here is even more so. Like, this is what me and Chad are saying here is we don't believe in you, Kyler. This is a game you always lose, and you never cover. You always have a letdown after these big wins historically. So I'm with you. This is literally a prove it to me kinda bet here on this on this Green Bay Team. We're saying to the Arizona, it's like, okay. You guys are gonna be the sixth, seventh seed this year, maybe contend for your division. This is a game you must win, and don't think they're going to. I I do think this is a good matchup for Green Bay, especially the way they've been running the ball. This is a nice matchup defensively as well, for takeaways against Kyler. So I'm with you, Chad. It took me a minute to come around. I wasn't there Sunday night, but now here on Tuesday. I'm with you. I like this Green Bay. This might be one of our only favorites we agree on, but I think we both like this side.”
GB 34, ARI 13 — Packers beat Cardinals 34-13; Green Bay margin +21 covers -5 (ESPN).
“Well, to clean it up, this is the four bets I'm on. I took the Giants, home dog plus three and a half.”
CIN 17, NYG 7 — Bengals beat Giants 17-7; New York margin -10 fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN).
“Taking the Lions on the road minus three against the Cowboys.”
DET 47, DAL 9 — Lions beat Cowboys 47-9; Detroit margin +38 covers -3 (ESPN).
“Taking Washington plus six and a half on the road against the Ravens,”
BAL 30, WSH 23 — Ravens beat Commanders 30-23; Washington margin -7 fails to cover +6.5 (ESPN).
“And I think Chad's joining me. We're both taking the Patriots plus seven. We are.”
HOU 41, NE 21 — Texans beat Patriots 41-21; New England margin -20 fails to cover +7 (ESPN).
“I'm very tempted by the Patriots plus seven just because bet it. I'm I'm already yeah. When we when you guys mentioned that, I I I I text a runner. I was like, go just go bet this for me.”
HOU 41, NE 21 — Texans beat Patriots 41-21; New England margin -20 fails to cover +7 (ESPN).
“Give me the Arizona cardinals at seven and a half.”
ARI 24, SF 23 — Cardinals beat 49ers 24-23; Arizona margin +1 covers +7.5 (ESPN).
“bet for sure was the rams three and a half, bangles plus three.”
GB 24, LAR 19 — Packers beat Rams 24-19; Rams margin -5 fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN).
“bet for sure was the rams three and a half, bangles plus three.”
BAL 41, CIN 38 — Ravens beat Bengals 41-38 in OT; Bengals margin -3 pushes exactly on +3 (ESPN).
“I was all over New Orleans from the beginning. I bet it at five and a half. It got down it got down to five.”
KC 26, NO 13 — Chiefs beat Saints 26-13; Saints margin -13 fails to cover +5.5 (ESPN).
“Especially a couple of books hit plus six on the saints team. I grabbed it right away.”
KC 26, NO 13 — Chiefs beat Saints 26-13; Saints margin -13 fails to cover +6 (ESPN).
“You know, I'm gonna get there on Houston. I've just been waiting for that number to keep going up. So I'm I'm I'm slightly invested right now in the plus one and a half, not heavy.”
HOU 23, BUF 20 — Texans beat Bills 23-20; Houston margin +3 covers +1.5 (ESPN).
“I've been grabbing anywhere any book that has the one and a half, I've been grabbing it when I can. Yeah. I actually bet it while we were talking.”
HOU 23, BUF 20 — Texans beat Bills 23-20; Houston margin +3 covers +1.5 (ESPN).
“Right now, the panthers are my biggest bet of the weekend. Wow. But that's also because I bet in the plus five.”
CHI 36, CAR 10 — Bears beat Panthers 36-10; Carolina margin -26 fails to cover +5 (ESPN).
“the New Orleans saints are visiting the Kansas City chiefs. The Kansas City chiefs are five and a half point favorites now in some spots. Still five at three six five, but five and a half in other places. Simon? Yeah. The New Orleans saints There we go. Are my executive decision.”
KC 26, NO 13 — Chiefs beat Saints 26-13 on Monday Night Football; New Orleans +5.5 busts.
“I don't So know. Great. Then I'm taking the packers at three.”
GB 24, LAR 19 — Packers beat Rams 24-19; Green Bay -3 covers by 2.
“We are on the Ravens tonight minus two and a half.”
BAL 35, BUF 10 — Ravens routed Bills 35-10; Baltimore -2.5 covers by a wide margin.
“Carolina plus five against the bears. Gotta. Got it. Gotta.”
CHI 36, CAR 10 — Bears routed Panthers 36-10; Carolina +5 busts by a wide margin.
“Yeah. Right away, was like, you gotta take Green Bay there. It sucks up to three and a half. I'd still take that.”
GB 24, LAR 19 — Packers beat Rams 24-19; Green Bay -3.5 covers by 1.5.
“you can get Vegas right now as a plus two dog to Denver. I'm excited for Bo Knicks. Back to back road wins coming home now. I mean, come on. Don't we don't we have to take the race? You have to take the road dog under a field goal in the division.”
DEN 34, LV 18 — Broncos routed Raiders 34-18; Las Vegas +2 busts by a wide margin.
“So once that jumped right out to me right away, you can get Vegas right now as a plus two dog to Denver. I'm excited for Bo Knicks. Back to back road wins coming home now. I mean, come on. Don't we don't we have to take the race? You have to take the road dog under a field goal in the division. And I agree. Like, especially in this number and this spot where it's like, that one jumped out to me. It's like, okay. I talk all the time how I think tuners two is such a key number. It could go up to it could go up to two and a half, go up to three. Like, I don't know if the pros will be on this one, but for me right now, that's a game I'm gonna grab right away.”
DEN 34, LV 18 — Broncos routed Raiders 34-18; Las Vegas +2 busts by a wide margin.
“Side I was unsure about that I think you had more confidence in was the Jaguars. I said I'd bet if it got to seven. It did get to seven. I did bet it. It's now six and a half down to six in most books. That's easily one of the more professional sides this week.”
HOU 24, JAX 20 — Texans beat Jaguars 24-20; Jacksonville +7 covers, losing by only 4.
“So for me, not only do I like the match of this Bucks team, but it's like the trends fading fading hurts on the road has been very profitable for me. So, this is another spot where I kinda wanna fade them here on the road, especially, you know, the guys leading the league in turnovers. It's like, shouldn't we bet against that until he corrects it, especially when he's no longer the dog, when he's the favorite in these kind of spots? So, yeah, it's really what you talked on the very beginning. It's about playing the number. I make this closer to a pick. It's two and a half. I'm gonna take that value every time. Look.”
TB 33, PHI 16 — Buccaneers beat Eagles 33-16; Tampa Bay +2.5 covers easily.
“my exact decision this week is a game you just referred to, the Chicago bears. I think we'll get them at two and a half in the contest. They're now at three.”
CHI 24, LAR 18 — Bears beat Rams 24-18; Chicago -2.5 covers by 3.5.
“I told you the line was bad. You you really you couldn't get there. You thought the line should move more because these old line were around. I told you I moved it by half a point, made it two and a half. It's now two and a half. So, yeah, I'm with you. It's like, I I really love this line. I still love it, but I know it's gonna be harder to get you there, but I wish you had bet it at one and a half. It feels pretty good to be holding a one and half ticket in this matchup. It's like it feels like this this number is gonna matter in this one. It's just gonna be a close, ugly game. Went through Evans' trends. Their card tends to struggle on these kind of matchups against On the road. So another nice spot for Atlanta trend wise as well. I still think the the saints are a little overrated. I I just think the number says that. It's like, I told you, if that if there was no injury to this falcons team, I probably would have this number at three, three and a half. Alright? I did move it to two and a half out of respect to the injuries they have up front, but it's like,”
ATL 26, NO 24 — Falcons beat Saints 26-24; Atlanta -2.5 busts, winning by only 2.
“It's in the contest at one and a half. Say your piece. We love it. The fear is I'll say what the pushback is when I talk to other pros with their hesitation is because this is this is a pros versus jos. The pros absolutely love this Colts team. The public cannot get enough of this Pittsburgh team. Like, I was in Atlantic City yesterday with the three different sports books at each guy. I was like, who is the most money coming in on right now? It's always gonna be the Eagles, especially in Atlantic City. It's where its proximity is. Number two, without a doubt, was Pittsburgh. Like, just you can't stop getting enough money on Pittsburgh. So right now, you're saying it's four to one money right now on Pittsburgh compared to this Colts team. So, very telling. Because I joke to them. I go, yeah. Why don't you go back up to two then? He just gave me a side eye look of, like, we don't fucking need to. We like this spot. So that gave me some confidence here. I think me and you, our only real hesitation here is Anthony Richardson. Like, this guy is gonna burn us on one or two plays. Me and you know that when we bet this.”
IND 27, PIT 24 — Colts beat Steelers 27-24; Indianapolis +1.5 covers as an outright winner.
“I think the Steelers defense is mitigated by the Colts topped rank top ranked pass blocking o line. The Steelers have a terrible offense. I don't think it has an advantage over the Colts middling defense. Yeah. This is one of the bigger luck ranking games this week with Indy as the unlucky team. It's in the contest at one and a half.”
IND 27, PIT 24 — Colts beat Steelers 27-24; Indianapolis +1.5 covers as an outright winner.
“I'm not. I'm I bet it the wavering is more just, I don't get why there's so many professionals going the other side taking this commanders team where it just feels like the obvious trap where it's like, this line hasn't moved too much in your opinion. I thought it moved too much, and a lot of guys are like, no. I think this is where it should be in this type type of matchup, and it's like, man. I get Danos did look amazing. Like, we've never seen anything like that. This kid You know, one week, he can't find the end zone. Right? They they they were driving at will against the Giants. Couldn't find the red zone. He follows it up where he couldn't miss. Everything he did turned into a touchdown. So it's like, me and you have to ride those extremes here. We we don't know what kind of get kid we're getting here, but what I know one thing I know what I'm going to get on the cardinal side is I like the way they're set up right now, and I think they're the way they are built is the same way the Bucks were built against this team. It's like they can ball control and have guys on the outside that can beat this commander's team. And defensively, they have guys that can get stops for them. Now their best e tackle is probably gone for the season, this Arizona team, but they are getting an offensive lineman back this week. So, you know, not total cancel out. It's a big deal for their defense, but, you know, this it's a young team that they lost a veteran on the defensive front. But, you know, this this number is just a tricky one where it's like, I really like Arizona. I feel like I'm missing something here. And I don't know what that is because, to me, this is such a letdown spot, especially holy shit, man. Can can Gian Gaynos get any more smoke blowing up his ass this week? It's been ridiculous where, yeah, it's well deserved, but these conversations of these guys taking the victory laps and being like, see, I told you you should have went one over Williams. It's like, Jesus Christ, man. These people are the fucking worst. These are the same people that were telling Bryce Young to be the number one pick for six months. They just they're no different. So, I don't think this is at all comparable to Bryce Young, CJ from last year. The gap between Caleb and Jaden Daniels wasn't that huge, but when you factor in age, it was a big deal. It's like, why would you take a guy who's two, three years older than Caleb Williams? It just didn't make sense when their their playing style is not that much different. So, yeah, for this matchup, Chad, you know, I get the hesitation, the fear that I have right now with this Arizona team because something just seems off for this number. But a three and a half, we think Arizona is a good team. We think they're a playoff team. If they are, this is a game they should smack the hell out of those Washington team after that type of game. So,”
WSH 42, ARI 14 — Commanders routed Cardinals 42-14; Arizona -3.5 busts by a wide margin.
“it's why we are so comfortable going with the depleted, rundown Los Angeles chargers plus seven and a half as home underdogs against the Kansas City chiefs.”
KC 17, LAC 10 — Chiefs beat Chargers 17-10; Los Angeles +7.5 covers, losing by only 7.
“I am. No. I love the chargers. My whole hesitation, I think you know it, is this was eight and a half. We both bet it. I don't know if you bet it eight and half or got it eight, but it was like it was at a really nice number. Now it's down to seven and a half. I'll bet it again with you. Like, I love this number. I love this spot. I'll put in the contest, and it's really about Mahomes and this Chiefs team.”
KC 17, LAC 10 — Chiefs beat Chargers 17-10; Los Angeles +7.5 covers, losing by only 7.
“we're basically betting on last possession. Our guy, Lamar, has got it. He drives a field, and our 80 year old kicker, Justin Tucker, kicks one through for us. We cover this number. Like, because this He has found technique, and he's coming back to us. This just feels like such a sharp number. Like, there's a reason they're holding it here at two and a half, and, Chad knows as well. Like, same reason I went to Bet Lamar last week. You got him under three. If you have him under a field goal, he's twenty three and seven against the spread in his career. So I just blindly gotta keep betting this spot. I mean, it just made me so much money over the years, and I just keep doing it.”
BAL 35, BUF 10 — Ravens routed Bills 35-10; Baltimore -2.5 covers by a wide margin.
“Our week four boosted underdog money line parlay, we are going with the Indianapolis Colts and the Tampa Bay buccaneers.”
IND 27-24 PIT; TB 33-16 PHI — Parlay cashes: Colts beat Steelers 27-24 (Colts ML wins) and Buccaneers beat Eagles 33-16 (Buccaneers ML wins); both legs won.
“to claim your prize. Let's get to it. One of the games we talked about on Sunday. Normally, we don't dig into a Thursday night game, but it's Tuesday, Thursday night. Dallas at the New York Giants. Current line is four and a half. You said right away, bet this, and it was at five and a half. You were worried it was gonna go up. I know wise guys have this number around six or seven. It's actually come down. Brandon Anderson also highlighted this in the hot read segment on the overnight pod on Sunday he does with Evan Abrams. I love that segment. I bet it at four and a half.”
DAL 20, NYG 15 — Cowboys beat Giants 20-15 on Thursday Night Football; Dallas -4.5 covers by 0.5.
“to claim your prize. Let's get to it. One of the games we talked about on Sunday. Normally, we don't dig into a Thursday night game, but it's Tuesday, Thursday night. Dallas at the New York Giants. Current line is four and a half. You said right away, bet this, and it was at five and a half. You were worried it was gonna go up. I know wise guys have this number around six or seven. It's actually come down. Brandon Anderson also highlighted this in the hot read segment on the overnight pod on Sunday he does with Evan Abrams. I love that segment. I bet it at four and a half. Yeah. I bet it too. And I think it's just a little professional money came, and it took the Giants, especially on the money line.”
DAL 20, NYG 15 — Cowboys beat Giants 20-15 on Thursday Night Football; Dallas -4.5 covers by 0.5.
“and a passing offense that can move the ball downfield. So I think that's why the professionals are coming on this Bucks team where this number should be closer to a one, maybe a pick. Now it's up to two and a half. Me and you talk a time out key number that is. We'll we'll grab that number. And then I open up the action app, and it's basically all the money, all the tickets right now early are on the eagle side. So it's like, maybe this goes up to three, but I know the professionals that are coming on this Bucks team. It's just a nice spot to take them after that loss. And this Eagles team, I do think they're good, but like you just had all those injuries, at what point did that come back around? Like, I just I don't see how they're gonna move the ball with third, fourth string receivers where they've already been struggling moving the ball. Not moving the ball, I should say, but finishing these drives. Right? They're a team that they're, like, one for five or two for six on on fourth downs this season, And I think he's up to two or three red zone turnovers now, Jalen Hurts. So as good as the Eagles have looked and beat two and one, there's a lot of bad this team has produced. Is this a game we're putting on our list? Like, to me, we're not putting Denver and the Jets on there right now. I definitely bet it. Like, Tampa's on one of my five. It is.”
TB 33, PHI 16 — Buccaneers beat Eagles 33-16; Tampa Bay +2.5 covers easily.
“LA Rams at Chicago. Look. This opened at one. I loved it at one. I did bet it at two and a half because, like, as soon as our show is over on Sunday night, sometimes I just shook the computer down and go downstairs and then cry into a pillow.”
CHI 24, LAR 18 — Bears beat Rams 24-18; Chicago -2.5 covers by 3.5.
“Not only is it a great match for the colts, but this is just like last week, right, where, you know, there was a couple of sides we were just like, you gotta fade the public here. And if you had done if you've done just been fading the public blindly this year, you were up a ton of money. This falls right into that category of, you know, in the action app right now, 90% of the bets, 85% of the money is on Pittsburgh. And it's just like, how stupid can you be? Like, to to go have you on a road road favorite here in Pittsburgh and Tomlin, it's like, this is always when they have those letdown games. So I'm gonna take the plus two like you just said. It looks like it's gonna move back down to one and a half. We talked about time how key of a number plus two is, so I'm gonna grab it now before it does move. Yeah. Definitely grab the two. I grabbed it right before we came on the air, actually.”
IND 27, PIT 24 — Colts beat Steelers 27-24; Indianapolis +2 covers as an outright winner.
“Arizona is a three and a half point home favorite against Washington. This this line was five and a half before the game last night. It's moved two points. I so wanna take the cardinals.”
WSH 42, ARI 14 — Commanders routed Cardinals 42-14; Arizona -3.5 busts by a wide margin.
“Give me the Chargers plus eight. Like, almost feels like you gotta grab that now because I don't want it to go back down.”
KC 17, LAC 10 — Chiefs beat Chargers 17-10; Los Angeles +8 covers, losing by only 7.
“But I do really love the charges in this spot. Divisional game at plus eight. You know, this is like you just said, this is such a horrible spot in game. We take this number.”
KC 17, LAC 10 — Chiefs beat Chargers 17-10; Los Angeles +8 covers, losing by only 7.
“I'm gonna give you a chalk bet that I made right away before you even came on the air. K. Tell me. Cowboys, minus five and a half, Thursday night football in the Meadowlands.”
DAL 20-15 NYG — Cowboys beat Giants 20-15; Cowboys margin +5 fails to cover -5.5 (ESPN Week 4 scoreboard).
“Green Bay is a very short home favorite against Minnesota. Yeah. Honestly, I bet it just because I bet it before the games today just in case Jordan Love did come back. That's what I'm thinking. Yeah. So I I like that too for early bet. Yeah. Even though it is a that is tough throwing Jordan Love in against his Vikings defense because that they're gonna they're gonna be bringing the heat on his ass. There's no doubt they're gonna make him test that leg. But I think you're right. I'm gonna grab it now just because this is a key number at two. Look at that. You think I'm right. I got two games that I'm looking at, and you're like, oh, yeah. You know what? You're right. You know what I like, though? Just betting these ugly home favorites.”
MIN 31-29 GB — Vikings beat Packers 31-29; Packers margin -2 fails to cover -2 (ESPN Week 4 scoreboard).
“You know I have the one favorite. Well, yeah, we'll see we'll see. Bay at Tennessee Tennessee minus one and a half now. Yeah. Like, I decided I fell in love with Tennessee after, you know, three days of research. I saw the line got to two and a half, and it was a two and a half minus one fifteen. So I was nervous the line was gonna go back up to three, and so I rushed to bet the two and a half.”
GB 30-14 TEN — Packers beat Titans 30-14; Titans margin -16 fails to cover -2.5 (ESPN Week 3 scoreboard).
“Our week three boosted underdog parlay in deference to my BFF Simon Hunter. We are going with the Arizona cardinals and the Minnesota Vikings.”
DET 20-13 ARI; MIN 34-7 HOU — Parlay busts: Cardinals lost to Lions 13-20 (ML loss); Vikings beat Texans 34-7 (ML win) (ESPN Week 3 scoreboard).
“Keep it simple, stupid. I'm a go, Lamar, Ravens. I I just can't see them start over three, so I'm gonna take the minus one.”
BAL 28-25 DAL — Ravens beat Cowboys 28-25; Ravens margin +3 covers -1 (ESPN Week 3 scoreboard).
“Then I think I will go with the Miami dolphins. Oh, wow. I'm I'm putting it in the script. It's official. I am taking the Miami dolphins.”
SEA 24-3 MIA — Seahawks beat Dolphins 24-3; Dolphins lose outright, moneyline busts (ESPN Week 3 scoreboard).
“Well, I'm gonna make this Simon Says just in case it does. My god. Simon Says plus three and a half for Atlanta. Give it to me.”
KC 22-17 ATL — Chiefs beat Falcons 22-17; Falcons margin -5 fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN Week 3 scoreboard).
“Buffalo is a five and a half point favorite. Jags are o and two according to ESPN's FBI and the Bill Barnwell column. 23% chance to make the playoffs. You and I, Simon, have struggled with Trevor Lawrence. Did not go the direction we thought it would go in in year three. He's now got this huge contract, and you and I have been struggling to identify statistically what we see on the field, which is he's not great in the red zone. He doesn't have great touch. He's not very accurate. The chemistry between him and Doug Peterson still isn't fantastic the way we want it to be. Barlow pointed this out in his column. In the quick passing game, which is throws under two and a half seconds, which Doug Peterson loves, Trevor Lawrence's completion percentage is last in the league on these throws. His 4.4 yards per attempt is thirtieth. You know who he's ahead of? Bryce Young and Will Leavis. Jeez. In the red zone, twenty eighth in expected points last year, twenty ninth so far this year. This brings statistical evidence to everything we've been saying about Trevor Lawrence. And yet and yet, Simon Yeah. I gotta bet the Jacks, and I'm making them my exact decision. Oh god. A choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Now you have your orders. Execute them. Executive decision. Yeah. This is we're supposed to play this number and play this spot. So I have it at three and a half. Getting two points of value in this Jaguars team.”
BUF 47-10 JAX — Bills beat Jaguars 47-10; Jaguars margin -37 fails to cover +5.5 (ESPN Week 3 scoreboard).
“So, we'll take the six right now. How does this not just keep going up, though? Right? I think people are starting to believe a little bit in Cleveland Watson after he played pretty well against that Jaguars team where I'm coming from other way. I think the Jaguars just had nothing in that game. I don't even think Watson played that great. I think just altogether, that Jaguars team looked like they had nothing. I'll I'll take the desperate Giants team here.”
NYG 21-15 CLE — Giants beat Browns 21-15; Giants margin +6 covers +6 (ESPN Week 3 scoreboard).
“So I'll I'll take the plus three with Arizona here.”
DET 20-13 ARI — Lions beat Cardinals 20-13; Cardinals margin -7 fails to cover +3 (ESPN Week 3 scoreboard).
“I'm grabbing Tennessee now minus two against Green Bay. Grabbing the saints right now plus two and a half against the eagles.”
GB 30-14 TEN — Packers beat Titans 30-14; Titans margin -16 fails to cover -2 (ESPN Week 3 scoreboard).
“Easiest one right now is the saints are plus two and a half against the eagles. So I was looking at that, but I wanted to see You know that sticks. People are coming on the Eagles, especially if they wipe the floor with this Atlanta team. So that's one, like, Chad was about to say. We could wait and see on that. Right? Maybe the Eagles do win big, and we can get a plus three, but there's something fishy about that Eagles line in general. I think you were on it earlier this week when you talked how you, like, kinda liked Atlanta. So I'm gonna grab the two and a half just in case the Eagles do somehow lose this game and this this number does drop down to a pick.”
PHI 15-12 NO — Eagles beat Saints 15-12; Saints margin -3 fails to cover +2.5 (ESPN Week 3 scoreboard).
“And I I gotta do it, man. I gotta grab the raiders minus seven against the panthers.”
CAR 36-22 LV — Panthers beat Raiders 36-22; Raiders margin -14 fails to cover -7 (ESPN Week 3 scoreboard).
“They are the Dallas cowboys. We loved it on Sunday at six. We both bet it. It's moved to six and a half almost immediately.”
DAL 19, NO 44 — Saints beat Cowboys 44-19; Cowboys -6 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm hoping the cowboys dip down to five and a half because that would be probably my biggest bet of the weekend. But right now, have a decent amount of six.”
DAL 19, NO 44 — Saints beat Cowboys 44-19; Cowboys -6 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“So you're betting the Jets? I bet them. I took them in my minus three and a half. Once I got to three and a half, was like, alright. I'll I'll take this number here.”
TEN 17, NYJ 24 — Jets beat Titans 24-17; Jets -3.5 spread covers (ESPN box score).
“We are going with the Green Bay packers. Wow. Green Bay packers. I think this is what Matt Mitchell called when we started talking about it on Tuesday, podcast malpractice. But look. And, like, the number's down to two and a half, so we obviously don't have the best of the number.”
GB 16, IND 10 — Packers beat Colts 16-10; Packers +2.5 spread covers (ESPN box score).
“But Green Bay, you know, they reviewed as one of the better teams in all football. And, you know, just because they lost Jordan Love, we expect LaFleur to kinda figure this out on the fly. Right? I mean, their run blocking was incredible against the eagles. I think that will be able to translate against this Colts team that just gave up, you know, over a 150 yards to Houston running. Right? So, there's a couple of things I like here, but I think you're right. Right? The the pros, they've kinda dug in here because of LaFleur leaving the door open for Love maybe playing in this game. Right? That that to me is what the movement is. So, me and Chad are taking this on the show at two and a half. You can grab it if you want.”
GB 16, IND 10 — Packers beat Colts 16-10; Packers +2.5 spread covers (ESPN box score).
“We bet it at six. We're gonna take the Bengals. No reason to talk about it.”
KC 26, CIN 25 — Chiefs beat Bengals 26-25; Bengals +6 spread covers (ESPN box score).
“Love Cincy, especially if can get Cincy still 5 and a half.”
KC 26, CIN 25 — Chiefs beat Bengals 26-25; Bengals +5.5 spread covers (ESPN box score).
“We're not gonna let the two and a half scare us off just like Green Bay. Like, I I like both these ugly dogs here. I'm still gonna take Denver. The the public perception, though, that, you know, this Pittsburgh team, they're gonna be able to travel this defense.”
PIT 13, DEN 6 — Steelers beat Broncos 13-6; Broncos +2.5 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“This week will be Denver I can't believe I'm saying this. Podcast Malpractice and Green Bay. Denver and Green Bay. What we should do is gonna be our boosted parlay.”
Steelers beat Broncos 13-6, so the Denver Broncos ML leg loses; Packers beat Colts 16-10, so the Green Bay Packers ML leg wins. Both legs must win, so the parlay busts (ESPN box scores).
“We like the ravens. You said raiders, and I'm like, people were not betting the raiders in our survivor pool. We're taking the ravens.”
LV 26, BAL 23 — Raiders beat Ravens 26-23; Ravens moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Yeah. That's where I'm at with it where it's like, you're gonna give me three and a half. I'll go with the public. I'll I'll take the Jets here, but I don't know if this will be one of our five. I don't know if this is one of our favorite favorites, but could be come Thursday. Because right now, I have bet it at minus three and a half, but, I'm just trying not to overreact too much to what happened to this Jets team against the 49ers. I feel like I'm properly reacting”
TEN 17, NYJ 24 — Jets beat Titans 24-17; Jets -3.5 spread covers (ESPN box score).
“you you said this game is lined right, but that you're also on the jaguars. So does that mean you're finding an edge in the jaguars? Or because you said you're betting it. Yeah. Because I had this at minus four. So to me Okay. Minus three, like, I like the value there. I I told you my fear is I talked to a bunch of professionals, and they're giving me all the reasons why they're back in Cleveland here. And, apparently, a bunch of trends point to it. And I found a couple of trends that did, but I'm I'm hoping again, Evan has an article about what these trends are because it's just like, I don't really see their reasoning for it. Like, they're”
CLE 18, JAX 13 — Browns beat Jaguars 18-13; Jaguars -3 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“But, yes, Simon says on the Bengals, I bet at plus six. You're betting at plus six. We're all betting at plus six.”
KC 26, CIN 25 — Chiefs beat Bengals 26-25; Bengals +6 spread covers (ESPN box score).
“It's Cincinnati plus six. Like, for a second, I forgot they were playing the chiefs and not the niners. Cincinnati plus six. Like It's probably gonna my Simon Says bet. I already took the six and a half. It's down to six. I'll take the six as well.”
KC 26, CIN 25 — Chiefs beat Bengals 26-25; Bengals +6 spread covers (ESPN box score).
“Dallas is minus six Love it. Right now. I I say we grab it. I I as soon as I saw that number come out, it's Dallas at home against a bad team. Like, we always we always play Dallas on the spot.”
DAL 19, NO 44 — Saints beat Cowboys 44-19; Cowboys -6 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Yeah. I grabbed Colts minus three right now just in case it is Malik Willis.”
GB 16, IND 10 — Packers beat Colts 16-10; Colts -3 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Carolina at New Orleans, this number is at four. This was my exact decision.”
NO 47, CAR 10 — Saints beat Panthers 47-10; Panthers +4 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“the Jets I've been betting for the last month where I really did think we wouldn't see Trent Williams until October. Him him coming back and his reasoning for coming back, they're very human. Right? He he saw his teammate almost lose his life, and it kinda put perspective for him. And he was just like, what am I doing here? Why am I staying home over a couple million where I need to be with my guys? So getting him back was a big deal. Hasn't really shifted my view of it. It's like I'm I bet it at 4 and a half. Now it's back up to 4 and a half. I still live at 4 and a half.”
SF 32, NYJ 19 — 49ers beat Jets 32-19; Jets +4.5 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm gonna go with the homework pick and take the Eagles at minus two and a half.”
PHI 34, GB 29 — Eagles beat Packers 34-29 in the Brazil opener; Eagles -2.5 spread covers (ESPN box score).
“I'm going with the Tennessee Titans plus one.”
CHI 24, TEN 17 — Bears beat Titans 24-17; Titans +1 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Bet the ravens plus three. Biddy up.”
20-27 — Chiefs beat Ravens 27-20 on Sep 5, 2024; Baltimore's -7 margin misses the +3 line (ESPN box score).
“I like the Jags here. Yeah. It's unfortunate, Chad. This was three and a half for three months. Some news came out that Waddle and Tyreek Hill were a little banged up, so the the number dipped down to three, two and a half in a couple of books. Now it's settled back into three. Even though those guys have been cleared for practice, and they're fully practicing, but how are we not gonna like the the Jaguars here? Right? We have to. The Jaguars,”
17-20 — Dolphins beat Jaguars 20-17 on Sep 8, 2024; Jacksonville's -3 margin exactly matches the +3 line (ESPN box score).
“Trevor Lawrence, lead the league in passing at 22 to one.”
Trevor Lawrence played only 10 games due to injury; Joe Burrow led the NFL in passing yards in 2024 with 4,918 (ESPN season stats). (Joe Burrow 4,918 pass yds)
“I still like the titans at four and a half. I'm not buying out. I'm not afraid.”
17-24 — Bears beat Titans 24-17 on Sep 8, 2024; Tennessee's -7 margin misses the +4.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Give me the colts plus two and a half. Put him in the contest. Let's go.”
27-29 — Texans beat Colts 29-27 on Sep 8, 2024; Indianapolis's -2 margin beats the +2.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I like the Jets. I like them at four and a half.”
19-32 — 49ers beat Jets 32-19 on Sep 9, 2024; New York's -13 margin misses the +4.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Chiefs, niners, 17 to one.”
The 49ers went 8-9 and missed the playoffs, so Super Bowl LIX (Eagles 40, Chiefs 22) never featured the 49ers (ESPN standings; NFL playoffs results).
“Chiefs eagles, 28 to one.”
40-22 — Super Bowl LIX was exactly Chiefs vs. Eagles, with the Eagles winning 40-22 on Feb 9, 2025 (ESPN).
“Chiefs lions, 28 to one.”
The Lions went 15-2 but lost in the Divisional round to Washington 45-31, so a Chiefs-Lions Super Bowl never happened (NFL playoffs results).
“Bengals lions, 50 to one.”
The Bengals went 9-8 and missed the playoffs, and the Lions lost in the Divisional round, so a Bengals-Lions Super Bowl never happened (ESPN standings; NFL playoffs results).
“Bengals eagles, 60 to one.”
The Bengals went 9-8 and missed the playoffs, so a Bengals-Eagles Super Bowl matchup did not occur (ESPN standings).
“Bengals niners, 33 to one.”
Neither the Bengals (9-8) nor the 49ers (8-9) made the 2024 playoffs, so this matchup did not happen (ESPN standings).
“Ravens lions, 41 to one.”
Both the Ravens and Lions lost in the Divisional round of the 2024-25 playoffs, so a Ravens-Lions Super Bowl never happened (NFL playoffs results).
“Ravens eagles, 41 to one.”
The Ravens lost in the Divisional round to Buffalo 27-25, so the Ravens-Eagles Super Bowl matchup did not occur (NFL playoffs results).
“Ravens niners, 25 to one.”
The 49ers missed the playoffs (8-9) and the Ravens lost in the Divisional round, so this matchup did not happen (ESPN standings; NFL playoffs results).
“Get give me the Raiders. I love this team over six and a half. They're minus one forty now towards the over.”
Raiders finished the 2024 season 4-13, well under the 6.5 win total (ESPN standings). (Las Vegas Raiders 2024: 4-13)
“Same division, Denver Broncos over five and a half.”
Broncos finished the 2024 season 10-7, over the 5.5 win total (ESPN standings). (Denver Broncos 2024: 10-7)
“Fantasy number wise, could it be fun with Jefferson? Sure. But we're talking win totals. They're over under. The under right now is plus one thirty. I love the under six and a half for this team. Like, I've taken their adjusting under.”
Vikings finished the 2024 season 14-3, far over the 6.5 win total (bet was the under) (ESPN standings). (Minnesota Vikings 2024: 14-3)
“The Minnesota Vikings, of the two bets I made this weekend that you did not know about already, that I was most excited about, the Vikings have been one that I kept looking at trying to find. You mentioned the under six and a half. I felt like I wasn't getting enough value even at minus one thirty on the under six and a half. It's plus one thirty. Plus one thirty. I mean I mean, plus one thirty? I actually bet the under four and a half at, like I forgot what the number was. Plus three Plus 200 something. Right? Yeah. It was plus three something, I think. And”
Vikings finished the 2024 season 14-3, far over the 4.5 win total (bet was the under) (ESPN standings). (Minnesota Vikings 2024: 14-3)
“this is one I think you're gonna like. Minnesota Vikings, worst record in the league, 15 to one.”
The Vikings went 14-3, one of the NFL's best records, not the worst; the Patriots, Giants, Browns, and Titans all finished 3-14 or 4-13 (ESPN standings).
“I love the eagles. Eagles over 10 and a half. I just think this division's weak.”
Eagles finished the 2024 season 14-3, over the 10.5 win total (ESPN standings). (Philadelphia Eagles 2024: 14-3)
“Go. Give me the lines 10 and a half over. Hello, Detroit. You've won my heart.”
Lions finished the 2024 season 15-2, over the 10.5 win total (ESPN standings). (Detroit Lions 2024: 15-2)
“Do we not take the Chiefs over 11 and a half?”
Chiefs finished the 2024 season 15-2, over the 11.5 win total (ESPN standings). (Kansas City Chiefs 2024: 15-2)
“But I I'd just take they're over at 10 and a half Cincinnati Bengals.”
Bengals finished the 2024 season 9-8, under the 10.5 win total (ESPN standings). (Cincinnati Bengals 2024: 9-8)
“to me, AFC North plus two twenty five most combined wins for a division.”
The AFC North combined for 34 wins (Ravens 12, Steelers 10, Bengals 9, Browns 3); the NFC North led all divisions with 45 combined wins (Lions 15, Vikings 14, Packers 11, Bears 5) (ESPN standings).
“What was your number on, NFC West combined wins? It probably moved because I did bet this early August. It was plus 400 for them to have the best best rec best record most wins, I should say.”
The NFC West combined for 34 wins (Rams 10, Seahawks 10, 49ers 8, Cardinals 6); the NFC North led all divisions with 45 combined wins (ESPN standings).
“for me, the Cowboys, everything's so negative there that, you know, the fact that I can still get the Eagles on minus one twenty five at bet $3.06 5, I love that value here. So if you if you again, if you wanna throw in the Chiefs and all these, I totally get it. Like, I love the chiefs so much. You're gonna pair them with the eagles. I believe it's plus one fifty if you pair them and to parlay them to win their division. So, yeah, give me the eagles. I just they're the only team I have in this division over 10 wins. Like, I have the cowboys under at the nine and a half. So, yeah, very confident in this pick and them coming out of this division winning it, Chad.”
The Eagles won the NFC East at 14-3, the best record in the division (ESPN standings).
“The one team we didn't talk about, the colts to win the AFC South. South. I just blanked. Plus three forty right now, which I love. I like it better than the jags. I like it better than the Texans.”
The Colts went 8-9 and did not win the AFC South; the Texans took it at 10-7 (ESPN standings).
“I bet Clemson to win the ACC. Bet them to go to the college ball playoff. They're definitely falling a step behind. I don't think they have, like, national title ceiling. Right. But I do like them to win the ACC.”
34-31 — Clemson beat SMU 34-31 in the 2024 ACC Championship Game on Dec 7, 2024 to win the ACC (ESPN).
“We're gonna take UNC on the money line over There's some injury information starting to leak out with Minnesota. Specifically, their running back Darius Taylor might not be available. What is Minnesota's offense? Running the ball, like, 70% of the time like a service academy. So, you know, what that's gonna do, their injuries are gonna put their new quarterback, New Hampshire's Max Brozmer, under the spotlight to try and do everything. If you go and break down his numbers at New Hampshire, yes, I did, only ten four years at New Hampshire, only 10% of his passes go beyond 20 yards. He is a dink and dunk quarterback in a Minnesota offense that has no explosiveness whatsoever with a brand new defensive coordinator. And on the other side of the ball, got a Marian Hampton. You guys, Simon, Chad, you guys will be talking about him in the NFL often. He is that good. So I love North Carolina opening night Thursday night.”
19-17 — North Carolina beat Minnesota 19-17 on Aug 29, 2024 on a last-minute field goal, so the UNC moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“Who we betting? Obviously, you know where I'm going. West Virginia money line against Penn State. I think they're up to, what, eight and a half as a dog.”
12-34 — Penn State beat West Virginia 34-12 on Aug 31, 2024, so the WVU moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Well, in the award winning action network app, you can follow me and see that an hour ago, I placed a nice nice fat bet on Clemson plus seven and a half in the first half against Georgia.”
0-6 — Georgia led Clemson only 6-0 at halftime of their Aug 31, 2024 game (Georgia won the full game 34-3, but this is a first-half spread bet). Clemson's -6 first-half margin beats the +7.5 line, so the bet covers (ESPN box score, quarter-by-quarter).
“midweek match in returns, but, I like bowling green to win the MAC,”
38-3 — Ohio beat Miami (OH) 38-3 to win the 2024 MAC Championship on Dec 7, 2024; Bowling Green did not reach or win the game (ESPN).
“So San Diego State under five and a half, absolutely the future.”
San Diego State finished the 2024 season 3-9, under the 5.5 win total (ESPN standings). (San Diego State 2024: 3-9)
“Not that the Aaron Donald stuff sucked the air out of the room, but it did a little bit for me, Chad. And then you add in the top that this is most likely Stafford's last year for the Rams. Like, it seems like they're kinda cooking the books and getting ready to kinda you know? Not saying they're one of the teams like the raiders or the jets who who won Dak Prescott, but that's what you hear behind the scenes. Like, these are the teams that have been chatting that, you know, that's the plan for next year, right, is is try to go after Dak. And it sounds crazy, but they they turned Stafford's deal into a one year deal. So Yep. I don't wanna make it sound like it's all good for the Rams. Like, this is by far the best team the second best team in this division. I thought that last year. This year, it's a little different. Like, I actually do like again, we're gonna do I like the seahawks. I like Arizona. So, it's it's easy to see this team. You know, some people think they can win it. I also could see this team being the last place team in this division. Like, a lot there's a lot of options on the table for this team right now, and it's all because of the unknown. Like, the fact they lost, you know, their their DC, that's I I I wanna act like it's not a big deal, but there's a reason he got that job in Atlanta. Like, he took a young group of guys last year turned them into something special. Now he's gone. And, we still believe in Sean McVeigh. Right? That's the whole point of betting this line right now. It's like, I I didn't bet them last year because I knew Puka was gonna be this incredible sleeper. It was like, okay. I have Stafford, and I had, you know, McVeigh at six and a half wins. That was crazy to me. I was getting butchered for, I don't know, nine weeks. They were three and six, and, like, literally, it was never any amount of people just just killing me. They went seven to one the end of the season. Like, this that that's how you want your better teams to be. Right? It takes a minute to get going. Then once they figure it out I mean, Stafford had them rolling on offense. Like, they were so good towards the end of the year. He was barely even passing the ball. They could just run the ball down your throat, and there was nothing you could do. So eight and half, Chad, I'll I'll bet it with you. I like their over, and it's like an over will take just because if he does stay healthy, Stafford,”
Rams finished the 2024 regular season 10-7 and won the NFC West, well over the 8.5 win total (ESPN standings). (Los Angeles Rams 2024: 10-7)
“That's how I feel about the cardinals here. Like, this is the team that I I'm betting them 13 to one to win this division.”
Cardinals finished 6-11 in 2024; the Rams won the NFC West at 10-7 (ESPN standings), so the Cardinals futures bet lost.
“I mean, I have I I definitely have three times the amount on the Chiefs to win this division. Like, that's definitely my biggest bet.”
Chiefs finished the 2024 regular season 15-2 and won the AFC West (ESPN standings), the NFL's best record.
“you clearly love the raiders a second ago when I brought up Gardner Minshew. Like I said, strength is scheduled ninth hardest. 19 is their offensive line rank. Top 10 defensive line largely because of Max Crosby. So it's about Gardner Minshew. Do they get over six and a half with Gardner Minshew? Yeah. I love this team.”
Raiders finished the 2024 regular season 4-13 (ESPN standings), well under 6.5 wins; the over lost. (Raiders 2024: 4-13)
“Max Crosby plus 700 to win defensive player of the year. I love that bet.”
Pat Surtain II (Broncos) won the 2024 AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year award, not Maxx Crosby (Wikipedia/AP award record).
“There's nothing I love more, Chad, and two guys loving the chargers in August when Herbert just got out of a walking boot two days ago. I mean, this is what I live for. This team, I've taken a large position on them to be the worst in this division, actually.”
Chargers finished the 2024 regular season 11-6, second in the AFC West; the Raiders (4-13) finished last (ESPN standings), not the Chargers.
“is where I have this projected. Wow. You know, 8 and a half is is the total there. So this is one of the few win totals that I don't mind betting the over on. I think normally win totals, that's where I wanna be taking unders. And if I like a team, I wanna be betting on them to win the Super Bowl, win division, things like that. But there's such a large discrepancy”
Chargers finished the 2024 regular season 11-6 (ESPN standings), clearing 8.5 wins; the over won. (Chargers 2024: 11-6)
“Yeah. I like the Eagles. I think the Eagles are the best bet to win the NFC East at even money.”
Eagles finished the 2024 regular season 14-3 and won the NFC East (ESPN standings), four games clear of Washington's 12-5.
“this year, I I feel way way confident betting this number. The only negative here is we bet one we bet plus one thirty, plus one twenty, I mean, for the last two months. And then just in the last three weeks, this line is now up to minus one twenty, like you just said, a lot of books. So Right. You missed that a little bit. Still love the over, obviously, 10 and a half. Don't hate it if you wanna put 15 to one, but I liked I did what Chad did last year.”
Eagles finished the 2024 regular season 14-3 (ESPN standings), clearing 10.5 wins; the over won. (Eagles 2024: 14-3)
“Eagles Chiefs matchup Super Bowl, I got it at 40 to one. So if if you wanna do something fun like that, you can do that if you don't like taking the 15 to one.”
40-22 — Super Bowl LIX, played February 9, 2025, was Eagles vs Chiefs; Philadelphia won 40-22 (ESPN). The Eagles-Chiefs matchup bet hit.
“I I put another bet on them against the Bengals. I think it was 55 to one, Eagles, Bengals. So that that's a fun way to bet that stuff if you want longer odds.”
Bengals finished the 2024 regular season 9-8 and missed the playoffs (ESPN standings). Super Bowl LIX was Eagles vs Chiefs, not Eagles vs Bengals, so the matchup bet lost.
“If you listen earlier, I like the Chiefs. Obviously, I'm betting on the three peat. I love to bet on history. Eagles Chiefs matchup Super Bowl, I got it at 40 to one.”
40-22 — Chiefs lost Super Bowl LIX to the Eagles, 40-22, on February 9, 2025 (ESPN), missing the three-peat.
“I wanna say I I've spoken to every bookmaker that, you know, in the Greater Tristate area over the last two months, it's all under money on this team. They've just been getting tons and tons of under under money on this win total. So this is gonna be on the the sports book's larger position on win totals. They're gonna need this teams over. I just think they had hanged the bad number, Chad. Like, to me, this 10 and a half made sense last year when our this division was so weak. Yeah. The the division feels like it's improved, like, tremendously from the commanders to the giants. So, you know, to me, 10 and a half, still too high of a number. I I do like that under. And, obviously, we're not touching anything for them divisionally or Super Bowl odds. This is a weird everything about this is a weird public number to me. The 19 to one is a public number. The plus one fifty is public. The 10 and a half is public. It's all screaming bookmakers are just looking to take advantage of people who love the cowboys.”
Cowboys finished the 2024 regular season 7-10 (ESPN standings), under 10.5 wins; the under won. (Cowboys 2024: 7-10)
“So my favorite commanders bet is Jayden Daniels, rookie of offensive rookie of the year, plus four seventy five. I have him projected to be a better fantasy quarterback than Caleb Williams because of the rushing upside.”
Jayden Daniels (Commanders) won the 2024 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award (Wikipedia/AP award record).
“Daniels will have a shot to win that award. So I like that. And then I think long shot commanders division at nine to one because we know it's probably not gonna be the cowboys given the NFC East history.”
Commanders finished the 2024 regular season 12-5, second in the NFC East behind the 14-3 Eagles (ESPN standings); Washington did not win the division.
“Yeah. Giants over six and a half. And if if you really make me bet on Washtenaw, I'm just slightly towards the under at six wins.”
Giants finished the 2024 regular season 3-14 (ESPN standings), well under 6.5 wins; the over lost. (Giants 2024: 3-14)
“So 10 and a half is plus one thirty. The professionals clearly like this team's under because they believe this division is better. Right? With Aaron Rodgers stepping up and Miami ascending from last year, I could see where they've taken that position. Again, they play a first place schedule. It's it's tough to get those wins when you have a first place schedule. I got them right at 11 wins, Chad. So it's not that big of an advantage. I got it by half a half a game. But at a plus number, I'll take that bet, but I don't I haven't bet anything on division wise yet, Chad. I have not touched their division odds yet at plus one seventy. I think it should be plus closer to plus 200 just like the jets. Right? I kinda have these teams right there by each other. So, to me, I've not taken position on the Bills, division odds yet, but I have had bet the over 10 and a half.”
Bills finished the 2024 regular season 13-4 (ESPN standings), clearing 10.5 wins; the over won. (Bills 2024: 13-4)
“but a nine and a half, I'll take it. And you can actually take this because it it's minus one fifty nine and a half. If you want a plus number, I have no issue taking a 10 and half bet with this team either because it's just another team I really like their win total.”
Jets finished the 2024 regular season 5-12 (ESPN standings), well under 9.5 wins; the over lost. (Jets 2024: 5-12)
“I I've done it plus one thirty five, plus one forty.”
Jets finished the 2024 regular season 5-12 (ESPN standings), well under 10.5 wins; the over lost. (Jets 2024: 5-12)
“Of course, we are taking the Ravens in week one against the Chiefs as three point underdogs. That's an Simon, there's no question on that. No.”
27-20 — Chiefs beat Ravens 27-20 in the 2024 NFL season opener (ESPN); Ravens lost outright by 7, failing to cover as +3 underdogs.
“So, again, not one of my bigger bets. Like, my biggest bet still bangles to win this division”
Bengals finished 9-8, third in the AFC North behind the Ravens (12-5) and Steelers (10-7) (ESPN standings); Cincinnati did not win the division.
“this is a team that I understand why people wanna blindly bet this. It's it's eight and a half to the win total. It's plus one twenty if you wanna take the over, minus one fifty to the under. I'm gonna take the under.”
Steelers finished the 2024 regular season 10-7 (ESPN standings), clearing 8.5 wins; the under lost. (Steelers 2024: 10-7)
“The over 10 and a half, I'll take it. Like, it's minus one thirty, so it's got a little bit of juice to it, but I have no mind paying them. Them as their favorite in this division, they should be. Like, them the fact they're not minus one ten, to me, that means there's value there. The plus they're plus one fifty. I'll take that value just because people do believe in a team. We're gonna talk about a little bit Green Bay. So I am getting a plus number just because Green Bay is the anchor in this division right now. They're the new sexy fun team. So to me, I'm getting a free free points here, free a free, you know, nice bet here on this Lions team that should be closer to 11 and a half.”
The Lions finished the 2024 regular season 15-2, easily clearing the 10.5 win total on the over (ESPN final standings). (Lions 2024: 15-2)
“and the lions are at plus one fifty. Are you fucking kidding me? Yeah. Like, of course, we're gonna bet the lions at plus one fifty. They should be closer to plus 100, minus one ten, like you said.”
Lions 15-2 (NFC North champions) — The Lions went 15-2 and won the NFC North division (ESPN final 2024 standings).
“Is boiling so high now. It's just it's crazy. So to me, I have to bet the under nine and a half, but they're not my favorite under team. It's kinda like Green Bay. Right? I'm just throwing a little bit on their under. Same with Green Bay. The fourth team we're gonna talk about here, that's that's the team I love for an under, but this division has just gone from you know, we didn't really know what they were last year. Right? It was Kirk Cousins division. Jared Goff is kinda shocked. We didn't really know we had Jordan Love and really know we have Justin Fields to now this is a position this this division in a year or two could be just the juggernaut in football. Right? If if Goff stays what he's doing and Jordan Love keeps ascending and and Caleb Williams works out and JJ works out, wow. Like, this is a really tough division with some great coach. And, again, we talked about Ivithroe is the worst coach in this division, and it's not really close. Right? We have the most doubts of him compared to the Vikings, Green Bay, and Detroit. So it's just it the hype is too high at this point. Right? You just can't do it. It's just not logical to bet this number, especially their overwin total. I even though it's at a it's at a minus one fifty, minus $1.45 right now, the under. 9 and a half for an under for this team at that price, I'm willing to eat the vig and the juice on that just because, again, it opened at 7 and a half, and it's gone up two games just on hype. So I I just have to take that position, Chad.”
The Bears finished the 2024 regular season 5-12, staying well under the 9.5 win total (ESPN final standings). (Bears 2024: 5-12)
“Panthers over, four and a half. If nobody takes anything else from this show, that's what they have to take.”
The Panthers finished the 2024 regular season 5-12, clearing the 4.5 win total on the over (ESPN final standings). (Panthers 2024: 5-12)
“We're buying at the lowest part of the market for the Carolina panthers across multiple markets, especially when it comes to season win totals of four and a half and to win the division at 11 to one.”
Buccaneers 10-7, Panthers 5-12 — The Buccaneers went 10-7 and won the NFC South; the Panthers finished 5-12, tied for last (ESPN final 2024 standings).
“it's not the Super Bowl odds, and it's not necessarily [30:55] their season win total. It's the plus three ten. I think that's where the most value is. And if you're gonna invest your money now and have to wait until the end of the season for a payout, I'd rather take a little bit more of a flyer on the plus three ten.”
Texans 10-7, Colts 8-9 — The Texans went 10-7 and won the AFC South; the Colts finished 8-9 in second place (ESPN final 2024 standings).
“Meanwhile, their defensive line is seventh graded in the NFL. It's all there. And then you add in top that we have such high respect for their head coach. It's like, this is these are the kind of teams we love and do about this. Shane Steichen, Simon. Like, we love this guy. Love it. We like, we love him so much because we realized halfway through the eagle season how much of a genius he was and what he was doing with that team because that No. They definitely they definitely picked the wrong guy. And, like, what he did with Anthony Richardson to start the season and then what he was able to do with Gardner Minshew throughout the rest of the year Adjust on the fly. Adjust on the fly. Totally opposite guys. Yeah. So, yeah, we love this team. Love it. Love it. If you haven't understood it, we're in on the cult to plus three ten to win our division.”
Texans 10-7, Colts 8-9 — The Texans went 10-7 and won the AFC South; the Colts finished 8-9 in second place (ESPN final 2024 standings).
“week one, me and Chad have bet the colts at home against Houston.”
Texans 29, Colts 27 — The Texans beat the Colts 29-27 in Week 1 of the 2024 season on Sept 8, 2024; the Colts' moneyline bet lost (ESPN box score).
“don't I've I've taken a little bit on their over. I've not bet them divisionally. I've not bet them future market for Super Bowl either. So I think Chad's being right about it, though. I might have a little bit of recency buy ins to it. I just don't think they've done enough defensively to give me faith that they can really stop two other quarterbacks. I have a lot of faith in this division. So, yeah, it's all once again, it's all think it's all gonna be put on Trevor Lawrence's shoulders, and we can see we'll see if he can hold it up. Right now, he held up one year, the next year, did not. So it's gonna be interesting how this team performs this coming season. Jags are 50 to one to win the Super Bowl. Wow. I didn't know it got that low. They were 40 to one, so they've dropped. Plus two seventy five to win the division. Eight and a half is their season win total, so you've got a little bit of a taste on the Just because I have them at nine and eight.”
The Jaguars finished the 2024 regular season 4-13, well under the 8.5 win total, so the over lost (ESPN final standings). (Jaguars 2024: 4-13)
“Right now, the lions, 12 to one to win the Super Bowl. The Texans, 19 to one to win the Super Bowl. So I go to you, Simon Hunter, are you more likely to bet the lions to win the Super Bowl or the Texans to win the Super Bowl? I'm gonna go lions even though it's not a great price just because I don't need to face my homes.”
Commanders 45, Lions 31 — The Lions lost the NFC Divisional playoff to the Commanders 45-31 on Jan 18, 2025, and the Eagles beat the Chiefs 40-22 to win Super Bowl LIX on Feb 9, 2025 — Detroit did not win the Super Bowl (ESPN).
“very well until his injury. So we'll see. Home dog in that now the one thing I will say, which is an interesting thing, India is six and one against the spread in week two last seven years. So this has worked absolutely perfectly in the sense that they've started crappy, and they've bounced back. And it's almost happened every single year. So we'll see. I just wanna just wanna say the line movement could be based off Anthony Richardson. Apparently, he's resting right now. Right? He's not throwing completely. People are a little worried that that shoulder is not fully healed. So a lot of pros I've talked to, they just went right away. As soon as they saw that he was working on throwing lefty because he didn't wanna throw righty that day because there was a rest day. I know some guys who just took a position on the other side because just like, dude, this dude, he might not just be right ever again. Like, that's kind of thing where you kinda have that shoulder injury and guys don't come back right from it. So I get the hesitation. I'm just I'm not worried about it. I don't think Chad is either. If this gets to three, we already liked it. It's gonna we'll go down with the ship, but that's another thing to remember, Chad. We won't get pissed at Anthony Richardson if we do not cover. We gotta we gotta ride that second trend. Right? Take them next week if if we Yeah. Got I bet it at one and a half.”
29-27 — Texans beat Colts 29-27 in Week 1 (ESPN); Colts lost outright, missing the +1.5 cover.
“Because me and Chad, we're on the three and a half already of the Rams, but luckily, McVeigh plays pretty well.”
26-20 — Lions beat Rams 26-20 in OT (ESPN); Rams lost by 6, missing the +3.5 cover.
“The rams ended up being our big balls bet of the week. Because they're again, he didn't even say it. McVeigh is a great week one trend too. Like, even last year, we they covered for us week one. So that's I mean, that Campbell stat scares me, man. Because me and Chad, we're on the three and a half already of the Rams, but luckily, McVeigh plays pretty well. Right? He coaches pretty well. We've won. He does. I think he's either, like, second or third best on that list.”
26-20 — Lions beat Rams 26-20 in OT (ESPN); Rams lost by 6, missing the +3.5 cover.
“I'm gonna bet them to win in six. So four two series price, you can get that at plus, you know, 1,000 plus 1,200 some books. That to me is a fun bet to make here on Dallas.”
4-1 — Celtics beat Mavericks 4-1 in the 2024 NBA Finals (Wikipedia, citing the series result), so the Mavericks-in-6 bet lost.
“But I'm gonna take the Mavs.”
4-1 — Celtics beat Mavericks 4-1 in the 2024 NBA Finals (Wikipedia), so the Mavericks to win the Finals bet lost.
“it's given people this false security, this false hope that Jordan Love is the next Aaron Rodgers. And this Green Bay team is, you know, an easy bet to make the playoffs this year where they fit every criteria of young, inexperienced team that got to the playoffs too fast the year before. Now they're over nine and a half as a negative number, which means, again I mean, it might be minus one forty at this point. I can bet them plus one twenty, plus one thirty to the under nine and a half. Plus, to me, this jumps out as in a young team that just overachieved the year before.”
The Packers finished the 2024 regular season 11-6 (Wikipedia), going over the 9.5 win total and busting the under. (11-6)
“Well, I did like the steelers. Right? I I forget what they are. Eight and a half. Yeah. I like the Steelers. What are the Texans? Steelers. Do you like the Steelers over or under? Over. K. Yeah. I like tech Texans were nine. I believe they're nine and a half, 10 at most books now since the digs trade. Texans are gonna win twelve, thirteen games.”
The Steelers finished the 2024 regular season 10-7 (Wikipedia), clearing the 8.5 win total on the over. (10-7)
“I like tech Texans were nine. I believe they're nine and a half, 10 at most books now since the digs trade. Texans are gonna win twelve, thirteen games.”
The Texans finished the 2024 regular season 10-7 (Wikipedia), clearing the 9.5 win total on the over. (10-7)
“And I'll give you another one. The Charger's over. Eight and a half games,”
The Chargers finished the 2024 regular season 11-6 (Wikipedia), clearing the 8.5 win total on the over. (11-6)
“and I think I think you'll get the results. So I their their total's six and a half. I like the over on that.”
The Titans finished the 2024 regular season 3-14 (Wikipedia), falling well short of the 6.5 win total on the over. (3-14)
“If you wanna make us one of our bets too, I love this pick, especially a plus three for the Steelers.”
18-10 — Steelers beat Falcons 18-10 (ESPN) — won outright, easily covering +3.
“The the over to me is the play there.”
20-17 — Dolphins beat Jaguars 20-17 (ESPN); combined 37 points, under the 49.5 total.
“Simon Says. Hey. New York Giants. Shocker. I know. I love this spot so much for the Giants. The Vikings team, people talking about them. I just can't believe this number is what it is. Like, our options right now, they might be starting JJ McCarthy is first start on the road in New York or Sam Darnold, a guy who saw ghosts in this exact stadium. It's like, I can't believe this is the number. It's a dream. It's just the hate has gone too far for the Giants and Daniel Jones. We all agree. He is not a good quarterback. And any, like, we all agree. He's not the guy. Right? Like, they overpaid him. I understand, like, why they wanna get rid of him and why they try to move on from this offseason. But he's on the team, and when he plays, he actually plays pretty well in this offense. Like, surprisingly does alright. Now for his first time in his career, he has a number one receiver. Like, they took a top receiver in the draft. I just don't think the Giants are be as bad as everyone's making an opt to be. Like, this number to me is just insane. And I just can't believe I can't believe people are betting on the Vikings here on the on the road. It's crazy to me. Like, I was hoping this number was gonna flip that so much love was gonna come on this Vikings team. But, just in the last two days, the reports are coming out there that JJ McCarthy is just he's been horrible in their practices. Like, they're doing seven on seven drills, Chad, and apparently, he's scrambling, which if you're a head coach and you're doing a seven on seven drill and you've seen your QB continuously scramble, that's gotta be an absolute nightmare. It's like, oh my god. This this is literally designed for him just to be passing. So, yeah. I I can't believe this is only minus one. It's it's it really is a gift. I I know the Giants, they're depleted. They're not that good of a team. I understand where all that's gonna come from. Minnesota on paper a better team. I just think overall, there's a big advantage to this Giants team facing either a rookie making his first start on the road or Sam Darnold. I'm a little surprised this is your Simon Says. Completely agree with you. Yeah. Me too. Because I hate I I hate to bet this, but it's like, this is insane.”
28-6 — Vikings routed Giants 28-6 (ESPN); Giants lost outright, missing the -1 cover.
“Give me the Indianapolis Colts plus one and a half home underdog.”
29-27 — Texans beat Colts 29-27 in Week 1 (ESPN); Colts lost outright, missing the +1.5 cover.
“Las Vegas at LA Chargers, Jim Harbaugh debut at home, minus three and a half point favorites. Not a massive feel for this game. I don't have a strong opinion one way or the other. Yeah. I just I know I'm gonna hate myself for doing it, but I took the under. I just I had to bet it. It's like, I I even though, like, I I might regret it, but I just view this Raiders identity is that the identity is that there's the defense, 12 personnel, running the ball kinda team. Like, that's just my view of what they're gonna try to be this season, this Raiders team. And Harbaugh is more than happy to just go into the mud and run the ball 40 times. Like, he doesn't care that it's Herbert. He just wants to win every game by one point. Like, that's why I love a coach like him. He does not care that whatever Herbert is so great at, it's like, no. We're we're here to win, not see you throw amazing passes downfield one out of every five connects. It's like that whole thing we saw with Herbert, those old days are kinda gone. He's gonna kinda go into that Andrew Luck role. Right? Andrew Luck at Stanford, you go back and watch it. Once they had weapons and he felt comfortable with Andrew Luck, they really opened the offense up, and they're happy to push the ball downfield. But the early days, he really relies on him learning the system and just running the ball. So, you know, there was a couple of 40 fives out there. Couple 40 fours are still available. The our sponsors here, bet three six five, have a 43 and a half. You take it if you want, but try to find the 44. That's that's a key number. So I definitely like the under in this matchup.”
22-10 — Chargers beat Raiders 22-10 (ESPN); combined 32 points, well under the 44 total.
“10 and a half win total, juice to the under, plus one twenty to win the East. I would fade the cowboys right now, Simon. Yeah. It feels like Jerry Jones is in shock. I I honestly think he's in shock from that Green Bay Playoff Game, and he hasn't come out of it where something something changed in him from that game where instead of going forward or going backwards, he's done nothing. They're just spinning their tires right now, the cowboys. And I think this is more says so much about Dak Prescott. And Chad knows all all I do on here is take heat. When I said that Dak Prescott was not a top 10 quarterback last year and people were like, oh, it's a homer homer pick, everything you're saying, my exact reason was he is going to have an incredible regular season, and then he is going to do nothing in the playoffs. And he will not take any blame. People will blame the head coach. They'll blame the offensive skill positions. Finally, finally, this year, I feel like people are holding back to the fire. Like, he's taking some accountability where he's it's him. Like, as much as people wanna put it everywhere else, he is what fell apart in that Green Bay game. I mean, you are the two seat at home against a very young Green Bay team in the seventh seat, and you got embarrassed. I mean, that was an embarrassing game. I mean, we watched that in a bar with all of our fans, Chad, and everyone five minutes in knew this game's over. I mean, it was before you even threw a pick six. It just felt like everything was going wrong for the Cowboys. So, people, if you wanna bet the Cowboys this year, go for it. But me and Chad begged you last year to bet them to win the division. It was it was an easy bet, this and year feels like the easy bet of you just fade the Cowboys. It's it's it's totally an in between year of the writing's on the wall. They are moving on from deck. This this to me feels like Jerry has already said as much without having to say anything. Because for the first time in my lifetime, they have done zero moves and zero ways if they try to benefit and make this team better. So, yeah, it's a long winded answer of saying, you can bet the under if you want. I'll bet the under, but, like, why would you bet anything for them? Future is divisional. What who is still out there that's betting this team's future long wise? So, yeah, interested to hear your opinion, but for me, this is just an easy stay away team or bet an under team. I just have zero faith in this cowboys team.”
The Dallas Cowboys finished the 2024 regular season 7-10, under the 10.5-win under line (NFL.com final standings). (7-10)
“The New York Giants, six and a half wins. This to me is a really interesting team. Obviously, they've changed dramatically. Daniel Jones, we don't really know what his future is. Barkley is gone. DeBaal, after being praised as a genius, now all of a sudden, wasn't a genius, and there was strife, and they're turning over their coaching staff. I have no opinion on this team right now. Simon, start us off. Yeah. I I bet them at whatever it was, a 130 to one for the Super Bowl feature when we did our show in February. Just a That's right. Just a I don't think they're gonna trade Daniel Jones, and these these odds were too high. And it's very telling. They haven't moved much since they've had Daniel Jones because that's the book kind of view of them. But, yeah, if you're gonna go with a crazy long shot team, how do you not bet this team? Like, these are this is probably the best offensive weapons. Even that Barkley left, this is probably the best offensive weapons Daniel Jones ever had on his Giants career. And, you know, last year, they won games with a third stringer that was living at home with his parents in Jersey. Like, team has talent, and Daniel Jones to me does have talent. We've seen that kid make big throws in a playoff game to beat Kirk Cousins. Like, it there are things there to like. So it's a buy a load team. So I'll I'll take the over six and a half.”
The New York Giants finished the 2024 regular season 3-14, well short of the 6.5-win over line (NFL.com final standings). (3-14)
“So, yeah, Eagles team over 10 and a half,”
The Philadelphia Eagles finished the 2024 regular season 14-3, clearing the 10.5-win over line (NFL.com final standings). (14-3)
“So, yeah, Eagles team over 10 and a half, [25:57] them to win the East.”
The Philadelphia Eagles won the 2024 NFC East with a 14-3 record.
“is the overpassing yards for Williams. If Williams goes over his 3,500 [33:03] passing yards or 3,600,”
Caleb Williams threw for 3,541 passing yards in his 2024 rookie season, clearing the 3,500-yard over line. (3,541 passing yards)
“Minus one twenty five to win that division is a lock. That I know that's like a oh, there's no such thing as a lock. That is a great bet. I hated what they did with the eighth overall pick in the draft. I loathed it. It was intergalactically stupid. But everything else that they did this offseason was really good. They upgraded significantly at quarterback. They upgraded significantly at coach. They upgraded significantly at offensive coordinator slash play caller, and they upgraded significantly at wide receiver two and three. That feels pretty good. That feels pretty good. So I and they were the eleventh ranked defense in the NFL last year. So I I think that they will win that division. I think they will win double digit games.”
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) won the 2024 NFC South; the Atlanta Falcons finished 8-9 in second, so the Falcons-to-win-the-division bet lost.
“Absolutely. Detroit, Simon's third best team overall in the NFL. 10 and a half wins, juice to the under. I I worry about this team. I worry that this is a team that was riding so high last year and had so many things go right for them. And I love Dan Campbell. We all believe Dan Campbell and this league is better for the media when Dan Campbell is in it. I worry about this team hitting the wall. Simon. Yeah. Don't overthink of people. They're bringing back their genius OC. They're bringing back their quarterback. Their rookies are gonna be better than they were last year. I mean, they have arguably a top three tight end. Ahmad St. Brown just resigned. It's it's all there. So, they attacked their defense. The defense is their weakness. They blew that game against the 49ers because their defense couldn't get any stops in that second half. They're going after it. I'm with Chad, though. Like, there's still questions about this Lions team, but, like, overall, this team is really good. They were I mean, couple couple plays away from absolutely smacking and dominating that 49ers team in San Francisco in the playoffs. Like, this is a really good team and a very veteran team at the key positions. They got veteran guys, defensive line, offensive line, and at quarterback, skill positions, a bunch of young kids. So, yeah, really quick. I would love to dive in more will this this upcoming offseason, more about Detroit. Just right now, if you're gonna make a bet, I'll I'll take the rover at 10 and a half.”
The Detroit Lions finished the 2024 regular season 15-2, crushing the 10.5-win over line (NFL.com final standings). (15-2)
“On to the, NFC West, the rams, eight and a half winch, juice to the over. We don't know the impact of Aaron Donald retiring, but at times, he was the thing that kept that defense together when they had nothing else. So I'm a little wary of this team even though I love everything about their offense. Simon, I'll start with you. I know you're always a backer of the rams or at least like what they tend to do. I know you like Stafford. Do you have any thoughts on this team? Any of the markets, eight and a half wins plus three fifty. Stafford, 25 to one win MVP. Jared Verse, first round pick, defensive end. Thoughts? Yeah. Didn't didn't take them on division. Didn't think the value was there. Well, last year, we were getting 10 to one at this point on them for the division. Now they're three to one, four to one. It's just the value is not there for how good the 49ers are and just how more of a complete team there. And Chad just said they lost the best defender in football. So, yeah, I'll take their over wins. We won't spend, again, too much time on it. But, yeah, it's a team that I had a ton of high hopes at end of the season.”
The Los Angeles Rams finished the 2024 regular season 10-7, clearing the 8.5-win over line (NFL.com final standings). (10-7)
“Alright. Last team, San Francisco 49ers. Simon just revealed there the top rated team in his team rankings in the NFL just ahead of the Eagles and the lions. Juiced to the under at 11 and a half wins. Brock Purdy, 14 to one to win MVP. Look. Last year, we were looking at Brock Purdy to win MVP at that number when it got to about week 10, I think, and we liked the number then. This team is tailor made for him to be a really good regular season quarterback and to him to for him to put up gaudy numbers and for them to win a lot of games. Danny, San Francisco 49ers could be the bears' biggest obstacle to winning it all. What a great NFC championship game matchup this how do you think niners fans will feel about being a nine and a half point underdog in that game? The niners are obviously an awesome team with an awesome coach, and I'm, like, the last person who's believing that the clock is gonna strike midnight on Brock Purdy because the value of what he can do is incredible. And for $1,000,000, it's the best value in the NFL. And I get why it's all successful, but I'm just like, at some point, the wheels are gonna come off. It doesn't make any damn sense. I just wouldn't invest in a team that has this much popularity behind it. Like, they're they're minus 200 to win the division, minus one ninety, one ninety five, whatever like, wherever you're shopping. Like, that's crazy when we're talking about Stafford and the value that and the the talent of the other teams in the division. So I just I don't think they're that good. They're very, very good, and they consistently prove me wrong. I don't know that I've lost more money on any other team in the NFL, the last two years than I have the San Francisco 49ers. Simon, you get the last word on the San Francisco 49ers. You're number one team in the NFL right now. Yeah. Pretty boring. I have number one team in football. So yeah. Take taking the rover, obviously. I mean, they're the most complete team”
The San Francisco 49ers finished the 2024 regular season 6-11, well short of the 11.5-win over line (NFL.com final standings). (6-11)
“So I just don't I don't see how the Patriots win more than one game in their division, Chad. It's just hard for me to get behind them stealing games where they've lost now Belichick, like the Belichick magic. As much as they wanted to hate on him and they needed to change, they're gonna see what that change feels like. So I'm with you on that one, Chad. This is this is a definitely an under eye bet, a five and a half.”
The New England Patriots finished the 2024 regular season 4-13, under the 5.5-win total (NFL.com final standings). (4-13)
“If the Jets overachieve this year, they are certainly a play for me at nine and a half wins. Little taste of Salad 14 to one. Yeah. I'll I'll give them both shit for the fact they wrote it out as Zach Wilson didn't go get Flacco. When Flacco wanted to go there, he's right down the street here in Haddonfield, New Jersey, like, literally an hour and a half drive from their facility, inexcusable. And that is why what you just touched on, they didn't draft a quarterback at pick 10. Like, they dropped down. They're happy to let JJ go to the Vikings because they know they're not gonna be here. I I really do think both of them thought they were gonna be fired last year if they didn't produce. But because Rogers got hurt, the owner right away was like, you know what? You get a freebie. I love betting these type of teams to win divisions, to go over their win totals. This is everyone knows. Everyone in that building knows this is it. Like, this this next year to two years is the window for Rogers, and then it's over. Rogers might come back and be half the man he was. That is better than any quarterback they've had for, let's say, twenty, thirty years. I mean, it is it's incredible how bad they are and how how much smarter and gift of an athlete he is than anyone they've ever had in that building. So he might not be the man he was after this injury. Right? His movement in the pocket, getting outside the pocket was already lacking heading into this major injury at his age. But we've seen it now. Like, medical technology has come so far. It might hinder him a little bit, but he is gonna be the general on that field. And they have so many weapons around. You saw I mean, Bryce Bryce Hall, like, we even talked about the skill positions they have on that team. It's incredible. So, yeah, people won't be shocked here. I love their over. Like, last year, I mean, you were all aboard fading them because they were just Yep. There was no value there. This year, we love it. Right? I love their win total over. I love them divisionally.”
The New York Jets finished the 2024 regular season 5-12, well short of the 9.5-win over line (NFL.com final standings). (5-12)
“The Bengals, we've we've seen this history of Joe Burrow, for some reason, keeps missing time in the preseason, and then they come out on a slow start. Like, this has happened multiple times with them. If you want, you can just wait on that type of future market with their Super Bowl futures now because you've already missed a good number. Six to one him TD passing leader. I don't know. It feels like they run the ball a decent amount, and they get in the red zone. So that's another bet that's a little weird where it's that low. But me and you, we love Joe Burrow. Like, we I think we both said we probably have him as the second guy we trust the most behind Mahomes in a game. So I don't want Cici fans that feel like we're bashing you guys here. It's just it's the question mark with Joe. Can Joe stay on the field and not take these unnecessary hits? So, don't mind. It's juice towards the over. I I love this team to win this division. Love this team towards their 10 and a half over. It's just they're they're the most complete best team right now,”
The Cincinnati Bengals finished the 2024 regular season 9-8, short of the 10.5-win over line (NFL.com final standings). (9-8)
“Baltimore Ravens, I don't like anything about it. It's Baltimore, gentlemen. The gods will not save you. 11 and a half wins, juice to the under. Lamar, 10 to one MVP. He's not gonna repeat. Everything about the Ravens right now is overinflated. Yeah. And, I mean, no shocker to any Ravens fan or people that just know how we operate here, but they're an easy team to fade this year. They've they've lost so many good veterans from that team from the previous season. They just haven't replenished because the Lamar money's kicking in. Like, this is they they just paid him a huge contract last year in the off season. Like, that's a real thing. So, Derrick Henry signing was cool. Like, that's seeing him and Lamar together, that's really cool. But I don't know how much better he is than some other guy at his age with all those miles on the tread. Like, he's a great player, but he he doesn't really move the needle where, you know, when Eagles got Saquon, that that kind of moved the needle a little bit for him with the Eagles where, you know, Derrick Henry is cool, but I don't know if it's that big of a deal. So, yeah, easy team to bet for regression. You don't have to do it, but I bet them to miss the playoffs. I'm not saying it's one of my favorite bets, but there's a couple books out there, $2.75, 300. Bet three six five is $2.60 for them to miss the playoffs. I like that value on this team. Just would expect them being a hit away on Lamar from their season just falling apart. And it's a guy who you know, he had a couple plays last year. He just got out of it, it's like, he's gonna get caught on one of these. And, that's definitely a team that you bet for aggression, especially in that division that they didn't have to face this really dominant Joe Burrill team. Even Pittsburgh, in a game they lost to them, it was like, that's just the the Pittsburgh style playing them. So there's just a couple couple ways they can get to the under. The fact that it's 11 and a half as well, Chad, that's that's such a high win total. So Massive number. Yes. In that division. So, yeah. The the under again, you can you can bet the misplayoffs with me. That wouldn't be my biggest bet. The under 11 and a half to me, that's a position you take here on this team.”
The Baltimore Ravens finished the 2024 regular season 12-5, over the 11.5-win under line (NFL.com final standings). (12-5)
“You don't have to do it, but I bet them to miss the playoffs. I'm not saying it's one of my favorite bets, but there's a couple books out there, $2.75,”
The Ravens went 12-5, won the AFC North, and made the 2024 playoffs, so the bet on Baltimore to miss the playoffs lost.
“yeah, just a year of rebuilding for Denver. Like, you expect them to be bad this year. They have a ton of dead money on the cap. It's just they'll be bad. In this division, I'm with Chad. I have him as the fourth worst team. So, like like, the under five and a half.”
The Denver Broncos finished the 2024 regular season 10-7, well over the 5.5-win under line (NFL.com final standings). (10-7)
“We like KC to win the division,”
The Kansas City Chiefs went 15-2 and won the AFC West in 2024 (NFL.com final standings).
“Colts are one of my favorite teams. Like, they're over a win and a half eight and a half is our win total. I'm gonna bet that. I know Chad will bet that.”
The Indianapolis Colts finished the 2024 regular season 8-9, short of the 8.5-win over line (NFL.com final standings). (8-9)
“So like I said, even though I am handicapping fierceness to win, I like the favorite here.”
Mystik Dan won the 2024 Kentucky Derby; Fierceness finished 15th, so the outright bet on Fierceness lost.
“I like the JJ over five and a half in his draft position, Chad, and it is plus 100.”
J.J. McCarthy was selected No. 10 overall by the Minnesota Vikings in the 2024 NFL Draft, clearing the over 5.5 draft-position line. (Pick 10: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings)
“Joel, one of the best offensive linemen greater in the draft, over seven and a half at plus 300.”
Joe Alt was selected No. 5 overall by the Los Angeles Chargers in the 2024 NFL Draft, under the 7.5 draft-position line. (Pick 5: Joe Alt, OT, Los Angeles Chargers)
“Over six and a half d lineman edge rushers in the first round plus 200.”
Exactly six defensive linemen/edge rushers were taken in round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft (Laiatu Latu 15, Byron Murphy II 16, Dallas Turner 17, Jared Verse 19, Chop Robinson 21, Darius Robinson 27), short of the over 6.5 line. (6 DL/EDGE taken in round 1 (picks 15, 16, 17, 19, 21, 27))
“If you want my chalk bet right now, I'm just blindly taking the Eagles.”
The Philadelphia Eagles finished the 2024 regular season 14-3 and won the NFC East division. (14-3, 1st place NFC East)
“Eagles over 10 and a half wins if you wanna make those bets.”
The Philadelphia Eagles finished the 2024 regular season 14-3, clearing the over 10.5 wins total. (14-3 regular-season record (2024))
“the books are already open. The bears at eight and a half for their win total. Easy under bet. I mean, that is just I feel bad for bears fans. Like, that is such a nice little bet for them to go, yeah. Why wouldn't we be nine and eight? Like, that just that that is literally a number hung for Bears fans. So, yeah, even before he's drafted, Caleb Williams already getting a tough number from the books, eight and a half. I'll be all over that under.”
The Chicago Bears finished the 2024 regular season 5-12, well under the 8.5 wins total. (5-12 regular-season record (2024))
“I bet the Bengals are 15 to one to win the Super Bowl.”
The Cincinnati Bengals finished 9-8 in 2024 and missed the playoffs; the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl LIX. The Bengals futures bet lost. (Bengals 9-8 (2024), did not make playoffs)
“This year, I had on our Big Bets on Campus podcast, we put together a futures portfolio, one bet a week over the past two months. We and I bet these four futures. Four of our futures are all in the same region with Houston, and Kentucky winning the national title.”
Oakland 80, Kentucky 76 — No. 14 Oakland upset No. 3 Kentucky 80-76 in the first round of the 2024 NCAA tournament (South Region); UConn went on to win the national title. Kentucky's futures bet lost.
“winning the national title. And then I have final four flyers”
Houston 98, Texas A&M 95 (OT) — The 2024 NCAA Men's Basketball Final Four was UConn, Purdue, Alabama, and NC State; Texas A&M lost in the first round of the South Region to Houston 98-95 (OT) and did not reach the Final Four.
“winning the national title. And then I have final four flyers on Texas A and M and Colorado who are all in the South Region.”
Florida 100, Colorado 77 — The 2024 NCAA Men's Basketball Final Four was UConn, Purdue, Alabama, and NC State; Colorado lost in the South Region first round to Florida 100-77 and did not reach the Final Four.
“but why did you go so heavy on Gosselin, Simon? Well, yeah, I didn't go crazy heavy, it is my my bigger position just because was Robert Downey junior born for that role? I don't know. But I can say that Gossam was born to be Kent. Like, it was just incredible how perfect that lined up and how perfect he was as it. Like, it's just again, Barbie, that movie was not meant for someone like me in any aspect. And they did not make that movie in any way for someone like me that has grown up that way I grown up or lived the way I lived, and I enjoyed it. And I think most people came away, like, seeing that like, again, most guys got dragged to that movie with the opposite sex, and I was not going and thinking at all this was going to be an enjoyable experience. And it was so perfectly casted in every way. I just have a hard hard hard view of them being snubbed in all these different categories. That's why I did make that bet.”
Robert Downey Jr. won Best Supporting Actor for Oppenheimer at the 96th Academy Awards, not Ryan Gosling (Wikipedia).
“Jayden Daniels at number two at plus one fifty, take a piece of it. Yeah. I bet it's like I'm already there with you where I bet it where, we'll”
Jayden Daniels was drafted No. 2 overall by the Washington Commanders in the 2024 NFL Draft (Wikipedia, per official draft results).
“yeah. And I I I bet you by September, this is probably down to 12 to one. Well, time to buy it now then. It's not gonna get it's not gonna get, like, longer. You know? They're not gonna go from 15 to one to 21. So if you like it, you might as well buy it now. In fact, I'm going to today. It's exactly what I'm gonna do. Last week, we talked a little bit about it. I feel like we're doing exactly what I just said, which is all of a sudden, we've convinced ourselves it's the Cincinnati Bengals are the Jayden Daniels of the twenty twenty four NFL season, and we're seeing something right now nobody else is seeing.”
The Cincinnati Bengals went 9-8 in the 2024 NFL season, missed the playoffs, and did not reach the Super Bowl; the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Kansas City Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX (ESPN).
“And that's why me and Chad are putting money on the New York Giants. It's disgusting to say, but there is a window where this team could win this division.”
The New York Giants went 3-14 in the 2024 NFL season and did not reach the Super Bowl; the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Kansas City Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX (ESPN).
“I bet Atlanta Super Bowl future because”
The Atlanta Falcons went 8-9 in the 2024 NFL season, missed the playoffs, and did not reach the Super Bowl; the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Kansas City Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX (ESPN).
“again, this is gonna I'll start at the bottom. We're gonna get real ugly, people. My first bet I made, Giants at a 125 to one on bet three six five. Do I really think the Giants are gonna win the Super Bowl? No.”
The New York Giants went 3-14 in the 2024 NFL season and did not reach the Super Bowl; the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Kansas City Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX (ESPN).
“Next up is Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is heavily rumored to be out there to get Justin Fields. Yes. I was gonna I was gonna ask you about this one because I'm looking at this one, and, like, of course, we're gonna bet the Steelers.”
The Pittsburgh Steelers went 10-7 in the 2024 NFL season and did not reach the Super Bowl; the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Kansas City Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX (ESPN).
“Tampa, 66 to one. I just like the value there on Baker.”
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 10-7 in the 2024 NFL season and did not reach the Super Bowl; the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Kansas City Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX (ESPN).
“It's gonna be the Chiefs plus two for the record. We both bet this at two and a half.”
25-22 — Chiefs beat the 49ers 25-22 in OT; margin of victory (+3) exceeds the +2.5 line, so Chiefs +2.5 covers.
“Under 47 and a half. We both bet Deebo Samuel over his receiving yards at 58 and a half.”
25-22 — Combined score was 47 (Chiefs 25, 49ers 22), under the 47.5 total.
“We both bet Deebo Samuel over his receiving yards at 58 and a half. It's moving up.”
Deebo Samuel had 33 receiving yards on 3 catches, under the 58.5-yard line. (Deebo Samuel: 33 receiving yards)
“We both bet Christian McCaffrey over three and a half rush yards on his first attempt.”
McCaffrey's first carry of the game gained 6 yards (left guard to SF 31), clearing the 3.5-yard line. (C. McCaffrey first carry: 6 yards)
“Chiefs minus two and a half at about plus one thirty five, which I thought was really fun. And and chances are that sort of these games will land at three or more. So if you like one side, then maybe you wanna take that side as a favorite of less than three, of three or of at less than three. And then I did sprinkle based on our conversation on Tuesday.”
25-22 — Chiefs beat the 49ers 25-22 in OT; a 3-point margin clears the -2.5 line.
“A little bit of Rashee Rice MVP at 60 to one, Travis Kelce, 17 to one.”
Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl LVIII MVP, not Rashee Rice.
“A little bit of Rashee Rice MVP at 60 to one, Travis Kelce, 17 to one.”
Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl LVIII MVP, not Travis Kelce.
“I love betting the second half as being the most points. Like, I just I just find it time and time again.”
Score was 3-10 at halftime (13 points) then 22-12 the rest of the way (34 points), so the second half had more points than the first. (First half: 13 pts; second half (incl. OT): 34 pts)
“One other one that I like is Pacheco to lead the game in rushing, which you might be able to get at better numbers.”
Christian McCaffrey led all rushers with 80 yards on 22 carries; Isiah Pacheco had 59 yards on 18 carries, so Pacheco did not lead the game in rushing. (McCaffrey 80 rush yds; Pacheco 59 rush yds)
“I am on the Kansas City Chiefs plus two.”
25-22 — Chiefs beat the 49ers 25-22 in OT, a 3-point margin that covers the +2 line.
“I like Mahomes not to throw a pick. I've got this up to about minus one fifty.”
Mahomes was intercepted once (by Ji'Ayir Brown) in Super Bowl LVIII, so the 'no interception' prop lost. (Mahomes: 1 INT (Ji'Ayir Brown))
“Let's do a rundown of MVP long shots, MVP picks. Rayvon, let's start with you. I'm a go with a guy in the Chiefs, and I think Nick is too. And that's I got and I like hedging both of these guys together because I think both of them have a great shot. I'll go with the more obvious one. That's Travis Kelce at 14 to one.”
Patrick Mahomes (34/46, 333 yds, 2 TD) won Super Bowl LVIII MVP, not Travis Kelce.
“to, you know, really let Christian McCaffrey shine. He's cleared it, like I said, 65% of the time, 31 out of 48 carries, of the first three carries of the game, he has cleared three and a half yards. So, and it also makes a lot of sense to look at the beginning part of the game because what's happening in the second 40 niners are getting big leads. Right? And so defenses can key in on the fact that they know Christian McCaffrey is gonna run at a higher rate, and and limit his yards per carry. So I do think it makes a lot of sense to throw out a lot of that later game stuff, that second half stuff where defenses are kinda changing their game plan because they know the forty niners are changing their game plan to be more run heavy. So I I think it's a fair sample to size to say this is somewhere around a 60% chance of clearing or getting it. I got it at minus one ten. It's since been bet to minus one fifteen. Still love it at minus one fifteen considering I have at least minus one fifty as fair value.”
McCaffrey's first carry of the game gained 6 yards (left guard to SF 31), clearing the 3.5-yard line. (C. McCaffrey first carry: 6 yards)
“Yeah. Well, I guess if you wanna vote against, the the swift Kelsey narrative, then you're gonna go to the other option in this receiving game, and that's Rashee Rice, 60 to one. I got him 70 to one. He's still 61. Still love that value at 60 to one. Mean, if you like the MVP value on Kelsey, and and I can't argue against Raybon there, then you have to, like, Rashee Rice MVP at 61.”
Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl LVIII MVP, not Rashee Rice.
“I'm fading a lot of props right now in this 49ers team, but ones I had piggyback Nick off of is I like the McCaffrey props and Deebo props. Like, the the Chiefs have struggled against guys in the slot. Deebo runs out of the slot. I mean, his numbers are even juiced up to minus one twenty. I believe it's over 58 and a half receiving yards now. Still love it.”
Deebo Samuel had 33 receiving yards on 3 catches, under the 58.5-yard line. (Deebo Samuel: 33 receiving yards)
“Alright, Simon. We've got two chiefs, long shot MVPs. Are you gonna close it out for us? Yeah. I call this the coward bet. Who is coward's favorite player in this game, Chad? Patrick Mahomes. No. It's Sam Darnold. You've not ever watched that man show. Jesus Christ. Yeah. I mean, don't get me wrong. I'm gonna be generationally wealthy. Sam Darnold. And it's a stupid bet. I hate it, but it's a bet I have to make. It's a bet where we've seen Purdy go down in our first quarter of a playoff game before. We've seen him take blindside hits because Shanahan schemed up wrong, and he blocked one of the best DMs on football with a tight end. Like, these things can happen. So it's crazy, but Sam Darnard right now is 200 to one. So I'm gonna throw a little bit on that.”
Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl LVIII MVP; Sam Darnold (49ers backup QB) did not win it.
“Obviously, the boring chalk bet is gonna be Mahomes, so I'm staying away from that. I get it if you wanna play that, but I like long shots. So my second big long shot is Fred Warner.”
Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl LVIII MVP, not 49ers LB Fred Warner.
“47 and a half is the total. Sunday night, you mentioned you liked the under. I like the under as well. I played the under.”
25-22 — Combined score was 47 (Chiefs 25, 49ers 22), under the 47.5 total.
“47 and a half is the total. Sunday night, you mentioned you liked the under. I like the under as well. I played the under. I've got a lot of stats and details, but before I dig into those, give me some of your logic. Yeah. Same as last year. Fan of show last year, it's I if I take a position on a total, I I go all in. So first quarter last year over, first half over, third quarter over, fourth quarter over, game over. Like, I go all in on those kind of bets. I'll be doing the same here with the under. I just love the under, and there's a bunch of different reasons. The biggest one would just be what Chad talked about where, I believe not only will the chiefs defense get stops,”
25-22 — Combined score was 47 (Chiefs 25, 49ers 22), under the 47.5 total.
“me and you like back in my home screen because I feel like we know exactly what we're getting. Even at one and a half, I'm still comfortable taking that number as I'm a dog. But I think you just said it where it's like, shouldn't we just take the money line at this point? If it gets up to plus one twenty, plus one ten, unless you wanna take the two, which we talk all time, two is such a key number, you might as well take the money line. But it's just I feel comfortable with Mahomes knowing that if this game is close and it's in the fourth quarter and we have Mahomes as a dog and he has the ball, don't you mean feel don't we feel like we're gonna cover this number, Chad? Yes. Where I can't say the same. I don't have that confidence. You know, Purdy's played great these last two weeks. I think it says more about those defense he's played where this Chiefs defense and Spags, all the different looks they're gonna give him. I just don't have the faith in it. Right? I just don't think he'll be able to do what he did the last couple weeks against his defense. So,”
25-22 — Chiefs beat the 49ers 25-22 in OT, a 3-point margin that covers the +1.5 line.
“Simon, I know you got the three. I was not fast enough. I got the two and a half betting on the chiefs.”
25-22 — Chiefs beat the 49ers 25-22 in OT; margin of victory (+3) exceeds the +2.5 line, so Chiefs +2.5 covers.
“I'm pissed. Like you said, I wanted the three to pop again just because I only got a penny down shit. Like, those those look ahead lines. The books are ticking. Nothing on it. So Yeah. I'm I'm hitting as many two and a half lines as I can right now just because you just said I I don't see this going back up to three. I can only see this going down. The public, the pros, everyone got burned on that Ravens bet, and they're just like me and you, we're just terrified of betting against Mahomes. So,”
25-22 — Chiefs beat the 49ers 25-22 in OT; margin of victory (+3) exceeds the +2.5 line, so Chiefs +2.5 covers.
“Chad likes San Francisco minus seven. That's his exact decision. Simon likes Baltimore minus three and a half, and Baltimore minus three and a half is going to be our big balls bet of the week.”
KC 17-10 BAL — Kansas City Chiefs beat Baltimore Ravens 17-10 in the AFC Championship, a 7-point margin; Ravens -3.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“He took the Ravens minus two and a half in the first half. And I know you always call that the cowards play, but we like to lean on that sometimes. Sometimes. I actually love that play. I bet it at two and a half because it takes sort of the Mahomes endgame backdoor factor out of the equation.”
KC 17-7 BAL (halftime) — Chiefs led Ravens 17-7 at halftime of the AFC Championship (ESPN box score); Ravens 1st-half margin -10 busts the -2.5 first-half spread.
“So until Simon had said the sharps are with me, I was a little bit antsy. Now I'm feeling I'll be honest, I literally on this podcast, I bet it at seven and a half, so I bet it again. Detroit's been absolutely torched on defense, but I don't trust Purdy. I won't trust Purdy. It's not I just I I feel like he's a mediocre quarterback and amazing system. And the fact that Debo is banged up and not himself, I just don't trust it. I'll take the points, especially I think I think I'm with Sam as well. I think it's gonna get to eight. Especially, like, that day, you're gonna get a lot of niner action, my opinion. Alright. Alright. Two more for you guys. Yeah.”
SF 34-31 DET — Detroit Lions lost 34-31 to San Francisco in the NFC Championship, a 3-point margin; Lions +7.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“obviously, I know taking the Lions money line here and playing them seven and a half, we're gonna need a a miracle to win this game outright.”
SF 34-31 DET — Detroit Lions lost 34-31 to San Francisco in the NFC Championship, a 3-point margin; Lions +7.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“So give me the Lions money line with the Ravens money line paired up.”
SF 34-31 DET; KC 17-10 BAL — Parlay (both legs must win): Detroit Lions ML lost (SF 34-31 DET), Baltimore Ravens ML lost (KC 17-10 BAL); both legs busting sinks the parlay.
“I already bet the niners at six and a half. Have not done anything else.”
SF 34-31 DET — San Francisco 49ers beat Detroit Lions 34-31 in the NFC Championship, a 3-point margin; 49ers -6.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“they are so heavily invested right now and all of the future is tied to the 49ers team. So I'm gonna take the free points of value and take the seven. Alright. Simon likes the lions at seven.”
SF 34-31 DET — Detroit Lions lost 34-31 to San Francisco in the NFC Championship, a 3-point margin; Lions +7 covers (ESPN box score).
“Houston Texans plus nine and a half against the Baltimore Ravens because this is what we're doing. There's no coming back from it.”
BAL 34-10 HOU — Baltimore Ravens beat Houston Texans 34-10 in the AFC Divisional Round; Texans +9.5 busts by a 24-point margin (ESPN box score).
“And then 2008 Seahawks plus nine, and they got smoked. That's why I want you to throw a little on the money line just because if you play this spot long term, it's it's a nice trend so far. I know it's only four game sample, but it's been profitable taking these big dogs not only on the number, but on the money line as well. So had a couple questions about why even mess with the Texans money line if I have a future. I want it all, baby.”
BAL 34-10 HOU — Baltimore Ravens beat Houston Texans 34-10 in the AFC Divisional Round; Texans moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Green Bay at San Francisco. San Francisco is a nine and a half point favorite. This was my exec decision. I still love it. I love it even more because the majority of the bets, meaning the squares, are coming in on the packers. They are a public dog. I'm so thrilled about this. Just the value on this team is inflated. This team should be a eleven, twelve point underdog in this spot. We have seen this too many times, too many times with a team coming in hot and then getting demolished. They are one of the youngest teams in the league. They're just happy to be here. This is all a surprise to them. In November, they were on the outside looking in. They needed a run-in the last two months of the year just to get to this spot. The niners had the best shot to win the Super Bowl they have had during Kyle Shanahan's reign. There is no dominant team in the AFC. Right? So to me, remember, the packers lost to the giants second half of the season, lost to the steelers second half of the season, gave up 30 points to the Panthers second half of the season. I I'm betting the Niners. I might even be tempted, Simon, to take some of the alt lines. Niners minus 21 plus three thirty five minus 24 plus four eighty six.”
SF 24-21 GB — San Francisco 49ers beat Green Bay Packers 24-21 in the NFC Divisional Round, a 3-point margin; 49ers -9.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“A reminder, we're on the Bills here minus two and a half.”
KC 27-24 BUF — Kansas City Chiefs beat Buffalo Bills 27-24 in the AFC Divisional Round; Bills lost outright, so -2.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“So I feel like our money line round robin should really be Texans, lions, niners, and Bills. Yeah. Yeah. I like that. Put it in the book.”
BAL 34-10 HOU; DET 31-23 TB; SF 24-21 GB; KC 27-24 BUF — Parlay (all legs must win): Texans ML lost (BAL 34-10 HOU), Lions ML won (DET 31-23 TB), 49ers ML won (SF 24-21 GB), Bills ML lost (KC 27-24 BUF); Texans and Bills legs busting sinks the parlay.
“We know this number is too big. Let's not overthink it. We gotta just take the Houston plus nine.”
10-34 — Ravens beat Texans 34-10 in the Divisional round; Texans lost by 24, well outside +9 (ESPN).
“I'm gonna ride out of Houston a 100 to one.”
Texans lost 34-10 to the Ravens in the Divisional round and were eliminated, never reaching Super Bowl LVIII (ESPN).
“I made Buffalo my exact decision as a 10 favorite. You did. And I'm sticking by it. I'm not afraid of it. I don't like Mason Rudolph on road. I don't like Mason Rudolph in the cold.”
31-17 — Bills beat Steelers 31-17, winning by 14 and covering -10 (ESPN).
“We're making the Texans plus two and a half, our foxhole.”
14-45 — Texans beat Browns 45-14; Texans won by 31, covering +2.5 (ESPN).
“Denizen of the Paris of Western New York that I needed before I bet Buffalo minus 10 is my exact decision.”
31-17 — Bills beat Steelers 31-17, winning by 14 and covering -10 (ESPN).
“snow. It's gonna be fun. Green Bay at Dallas. Look. We were talking about this game on Sunday night. It was seven and a half. We didn't understand the move. We talked about it on Tuesday. It was seven and a half. We didn't understand why it hadn't come down. I'll tell you right now. This morning at seven and a half, I bit the bullet. I started to see some of the Jews moving. I figured, like, it would finally move to seven. I couldn't find any reason not to bet Green Bay in this game.”
32-48 — Packers beat Cowboys 48-32, winning outright and covering +7.5 (ESPN).
“I just love Green Bay here. They're all live dog. Like, everything about this feels like a live dog. Chad talked about Jordan Love against pressure and the blitz. He's outstanding. You know who's had injuries to their defense that doesn't get talked about enough? This Dallas team. A Dallas team that teams have been able to move the ball on here towards the end of the season because of those injuries. So, such a big number like this, indoors, perfect condition. Again, we know the deal. Dallas is gonna put up points. Right? That's CeeDee Lamb, Dak combo, probably the best of football this season. Mean, I know Tyreek Hill had the record with Tua, but it's like anytime Dak needs those yards, doesn't matter if CD's doubled. He's gonna he's gonna find seating. It's gonna probably work out for him. So we we totally get that going into this. I just feel like we're alive the entire game. Even if we were down 21 nothing, Chad, I'm still gonna be doing the math in my head of, like, okay. We can still get there because we have the seven and a half. So, feel comfortable taking this big of a number on a first time starter and and Jordan Love in the playoffs. And we know the deal. They're the youngest team in the playoffs this year. We could easily get rolled in this game just because of that inexperienced. But I just think LaFleur has been coaching at such a high level, and Jordan Love's been playing at such a high level. I don't see them letting this game get away from it. I just always see them being in it. So I feel really confident taking the seven and a half, Chip.”
32-48 — Packers beat Cowboys 48-32, winning outright and covering +7.5 (ESPN).
“Yeah. And the fact that these teams both already played each other, like, also adds into that where I'm right there with you. I really like the under. But as as you noticed, it hadn't really moved. Like like, Evan put in the chat, it moved to 42 and a half. Professional money came back in because it moved too much, so they moved it back to 44. I like it at 44, though. I'm with you. Like, I've already bet this a couple times now because I kept thinking what you just said. I thought it was gonna keep dropping because we keep getting reports of stronger wins. And, you know, shout out to our guy, PJ, who does a ton of work for those behind the scenes at action. He he is obsessed with wind unders. Like, in our chats, our little Slack chats, all he talks about are these wind unders, and this is definitely one of these games popping right now where, you know, wind gust up to 30 miles per hour in that bowl of a stadium. That's a big deal to try to pass, and especially these two teams that, you know, they want to pass the ball, but I don't think they're gonna be able to, like Chad just talked about. So I already wanted to take the under in this one because I I I do think between the injuries out to Miami and the struggles of the Chiefs, I already like the under here. But now you you factor in this weather. I I definitely feel more comfortable betting this under than any other one this week. If you can find a 44 and a half,”
7-26 — Chiefs beat Dolphins 26-7; combined 33 points stays under 44 (ESPN).
“So if people wanna follow my bet that I did just taking the money line of the Bills and the Chiefs, put it together, it's, I think, minus one thirty five.”
Parlay cashes: Bills beat Steelers 31-17 (Bills ML wins) and Chiefs beat Dolphins 26-7 (Chiefs ML wins) (ESPN).
“Let's be patient. Moneyline, underdog, round robin. I know we want the rams. Let's let's just do three, though, because it's Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Well, we're not we can't do. I was gonna say, I I can't force in five. Think we have five we like. I was I was gonna limit honestly, I was gonna limit it to two, and let's see if we can force in a third to me. You gotta do Rams. Gotta do your Rams. You gotta do your Houston. Okay. Interesting. Because I was gonna say I was I actually wasn't gonna put Green Bay in there. I was gonna do Rams, Houston, and, Tampa. Yeah. That's fair. So let's do Rams, Houston, and Tampa. The one the reason I wanna put Houston is because we already talked about that stat. There a rookie has never beat the number one defense in the playoffs, and I just feel like CJ is the ultimate unicorn. Like, everything he's done this year has been so rare.”
Round robin busts: Rams ML lost (Lions beat Rams 24-23) while Texans ML (45-14 over Browns) and Buccaneers ML (32-9 over Eagles) both won, but the Rams leg sinks the parlay (ESPN).
“If it had to be one, and I think you just said what it was, your favorite Super Bowl future right now. Yeah. Rams. I'm almost positive before we came on, there were still 50 to one Super Bowl odds. And I know how tough a path they have to get there, but I already talked about it, people. Like, it just lines up right for them where of all the teams in the NFC, they're the only ones that have already faced this 49ers team multiple times. They know what the 49ers like to do. Stafford is a veteran quarterback. He won't let the moment get too big for him. And a Stafford versus Purdy kinda game, I'm I'm gonna be feeling pretty confident back in Stafford, especially as he's gonna be a you know, what would you think? You think he's gonna be a five, six point dog in that game? It makes sense why they have such big odds at this point just because the road to get there is going to be insane. But we talk all the time. These veteran quarterbacks with these teams that people don't believe in, they they can go on these type of runs. You just have to get hot at the right time. Like, Joe Flacco's showing us. Right? Joe Flacco got hot at the right time, took his team to a Super Bowl. Same could be said here with the Stafford and this group of receivers and Williams at running back. It's just they're such a good team that if the 49ers weren't hyped up so much, this would be, what, 30 to one, twenty five to one, it feels like. But just because everyone has the 49ers so far ahead of them, they're just getting no respect. So, yeah, 50 to one, give me the Rams.”
Rams lost 24-23 to the Lions in the Wild Card round and were eliminated, never reaching Super Bowl LVIII, which the Chiefs won over the 49ers (ESPN).
“so I'll take the over right now at 36 and a half.”
31-17 — Bills beat Steelers 31-17; combined 48 points clears the over 36.5 (ESPN).
“Simon says take the rams plus three. Simon says LA rams plus three and a half. Simon says Simon says when Simon says do it, we do what Simon says. And I told you I do I do bet differently in the playoffs, and this is a big, big situation of how I bet differently where I'm not as terrified to take certain public dogs, and this would be a spot with that where it's just like I think a lot of a lot of pros who do like the lines,”
24-23 — Lions beat Rams 24-23; Rams lost by 1 but covered +3.5 (ESPN).
“LA Rams at the Detroit Lions, great game, great narrative. The Lions are three and a half point favorites. It opened at four. We talked about it on Sunday. As it was at four, it was moving to three and a half. We all slammed it at three and a half. It's kinda just settled there.”
24-23 — Lions beat Rams 24-23; Rams lost by 1 but covered +3.5 (ESPN).
“But, yeah, it's seven and a half. I like I like Green Bay at this number, people.”
32-48 — Packers beat Cowboys 48-32, winning outright and covering +7.5 (ESPN).
“I got it back, this Eagles. So, I'm gonna I'm gonna grab it now just in case it does keep going up. I'll grab the three in case news comes out that Baker's really banged up.”
9-32 — Buccaneers beat Eagles 32-9; Eagles lost by 23, well outside +3 (ESPN).
“I'm I've already bet this. I'm grabbing it now. You have to grab the three and a half just in case it does disappear over three. Yeah. By the way, I was betting the three and a half while you were talking, and Charlie Dosturko, who's producing the show for us this very second, also bet the three and a half because I saw the alert for him tracking it in the app as we as we were talking. This is why I listen to the show. Go bet the Rams plus three and a half.”
DET 24, LAR 23 — Lions beat Rams 24-23 in the Wild Card round; Los Angeles lost by 1, covering the +3.5 spread (ESPN Wild Card scoreboard).
“Tell us everything you can tell us about the bet and what's happening. So as is tradition for me, every August, I sit down with every future I like, conference futures, Heisman futures, national title. I mix in a little NFL as well. And when I got to the very end of the menu, I still had Washington at 50 to one sitting there after I heavily invested in Penn State and Florida State to win the national title. But I still thought to myself, if they're going to the college football playoff, they're probably gonna be an underdog in both games, which is exactly how it played it out. So I needed a sweetener. I went big time on the sweetener here. This was you know, it took it from 50 to one to 764 to one, and that was by adding in Lamar Jackson to win NFL MVP.”
MICH 34, UW 13 — Michigan beat Washington 34-13 in the January 8, 2024 CFP National Championship, busting the Washington-to-win-title leg and sinking the parlay regardless of Lamar Jackson's later NFL MVP win (ESPN game recap).
“I'm on this this titans team at the five and a half. It'll be in the final five. It just has to be.”
TEN 28, JAX 20 — Titans beat Jaguars 28-20, covering the +5.5 spread by 8 (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“bears and bills. Like, I I love both of them. I know the bears is is playing a little bit of house money. If you've been betting them like we have these last couple weeks, like, I've just been loading up on them every week just because I just think they're undervalued. And this week, nothing's changed. I think the three is is is too good of a number to pass on. So, yeah, if it's if I was gonna be one of my five bigger bets, the bears is definitely the top three.”
GB 17, CHI 9 — Packers beat Bears 17-9; Chicago lost by 8, missing the +3 spread (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“everything we like is everything that everybody else likes. Tampa Bay and Carolina. Carolina is now four and a half point dog. We liked it at five and a half. We're sorry we're making people pick Carolina again. I still like Carolina in this spot.”
TB 9, CAR 0 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 9-0; Carolina lost by 9, missing the +4.5 spread (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“which is just so typical of this show. We've just been trying to catch whatever a falling knife in this bad Catch a falling knife. That is the Carolina panthers who are just terrible, and the coaching's terrible. Bryce Young is terrible. I hate it. But like Chad just said, it's just we keep playing the numbers. We keep getting sucked in, and can't avoid it. Like, I liked it at five and a half. I still like it at four and a half.”
TB 9, CAR 0 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 9-0; Carolina lost by 9, missing the +4.5 spread (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“I know the Eagles have had the Giants number, and Chad just broke it down to me why it's giving me confidence. So if if the Cowboys win, if Detroit win or whatever happens, it's like the Eagles might not be playing for anything. Maybe they'll have Hertz play in the first quarter or something like that, but he's banged up. A lot of guys are banged up. They they shouldn't wanna arrest these guys in this game. Like, you know, Kelsey's been banged up. They take him out. They take Lane Johnson out. Now we have their whole backup starting on that o line against a Giants team that Chad just talked about. They love the blitz. Now Mariota is the quarterback of the Eagles as well. So you now you have a backup offensive line and Mariota as a five point favorite. Come on. Like, we gotta take Daley here. We're gonna play them in the contest as well. It's still five and a half. I've seen it in couple books. Seen five in our book, maybe four and a half in contest. No worries. I'd still take that number.”
NYG 27, PHI 10 — Giants beat Eagles 27-10, covering the +5 spread by 22 (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“And it's moved in the past twenty four hours. I bet Denver plus three.”
LV 27, DEN 14 — Raiders beat Broncos 27-14; Denver lost by 13, missing the +3 spread (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“I'll I'll throw two favorites out. You see how you feel about them. K. How are you feeling about taking stick in the chargers minus three and a half at home against the chiefs and their backups? No real feel for it? No real feel. My feeling is neutral to negative. Yeah. I like I like the Chargers there just because they have been playing with the backups last couple weeks. They look so bad against this Denver team that I just it feels like the public is totally out on them where you're probably getting a nice price point on them. If you're getting minus three minus three and a half, He'd open our chat that there's a chance that Bosa and Keenan Allen would play. That would be so stupid then. Slim chance. No. Slim chance that Keenan Allen and and Bosa play. Yeah. That would be so dumb if they actually did it. But, you know, they're competitive football guys. Right? All these stats do matter, and especially guys like Kean Allen and Boso who, you know, they're definitely not playing for a championship. They're just playing for their own stats at this point. Like them, but totally get where you're off of it. What about Cincinnati Bengals against his Browns team? Seven point favorite, six six and a half point favorite. It feels like such a big number. That's why you should wanna back it, though. Right? Do I like that better than the Bills? That's the thing. Like, I feel I feel I feel so much more confident about the Buffalo Bills covering a short number as road favorites, as crazy as that sounds, than I do about Cincinnati as a huge favorite against the browns. I don't know why I feel that way. Like, the browns have a lot to play for here. They can finish the year with a winning record. I think that matters. I mean, the Cincinnati Bengals can. I I just hadn't really thought about it, to be honest. Well so I'm I'm heavy on the charters. I'm heavy into the Bengals. Like, I bet both these ones,”
LAC 12, KC 13 — Chiefs beat Chargers 13-12; Los Angeles lost by 1, missing the -3.5 spread (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“Like them, but totally get where you're off of it. What about Cincinnati Bengals against his Browns team? Seven point favorite, six six and a half point favorite. It feels like such a big number. That's why you should wanna back it, though. Right? Do I like that better than the Bills? That's the thing. Like, I feel I feel I feel so much more confident about the Buffalo Bills covering a short number as road favorites, as crazy as that sounds, than I do about Cincinnati as a huge favorite against the browns. I don't know why I feel that way. Like, the browns have a lot to play for here. They can finish the year with a winning record. I think that matters. I mean, the Cincinnati Bengals can. I I just hadn't really thought about it, to be honest. Well so I'm I'm heavy on the charters. I'm heavy into the Bengals. Like, I bet both these ones, you know, obviously, I feel like you know, I I got a great number on since you because it was six, and now it's seven. But I'm not really still worried about the seven. I just think the browns have been a different team on the road this season. And now you're factoring that they really aren't really playing for anything. Right? The browns are sitting all their starters. They're sitting flat or they're sitting everyone. So now that means they're playing a fourth or fifth string at quarterback against the Cincinnati team that I mean, they've played really well here down the stretch. I know they've had a bunch of injuries to their defense. That's my only real pause here where it's like, even against our fourth or fifth stringer, we might still get backdoored here, which I can already just sense you being like, why the hell do we back the Bengals as a seven point favorite?”
CIN 31, CLE 14 — Bengals beat Browns 31-14, covering the -7 spread by 10 (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“Give me the five. Give me the five and a half. I'll I'll back Tennessee here in the spot.”
TEN 28, JAX 20 — Titans beat Jaguars 28-20, covering the +5.5 spread by 8 (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“The line opened three and a half. I bet the bears at three and a half. It's moved to three,”
GB 17, CHI 9 — Packers beat Bears 17-9; Chicago lost by 8, missing the +3.5 spread (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“So I'm gonna back this bears team at plus three in a game that should be closer to a pick rather than plus three. I'm with Chad on his exact decision.”
GB 17, CHI 9 — Packers beat Bears 17-9; Chicago lost by 8, missing the +3 spread (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“So just be careful here. I'm I'm betting Minnesota. I bet them at three.”
DET 30, MIN 20 — Lions beat Vikings 30-20; Minnesota lost by 10, missing the +3 spread (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“Let's go falcons. Dirty birded, baby. We listen. A 100% have to back the falcons a plus three. You know we have to.”
NO 48, ATL 17 — Saints beat Falcons 48-17; Atlanta lost by 31, well outside the +3 spread (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“have to back the falcons a plus three. You know we have to. You're so right. We do.”
NO 48, ATL 17 — Saints beat Falcons 48-17; Atlanta lost by 31, well outside the +3 spread (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“I like the bills in this spot.”
MIA 14, BUF 21 — Bills beat Dolphins 21-14, covering the -3 spread by 4 (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“I still would take Giants at five and a half.”
LAR 26, NYG 25 — Rams beat Giants 26-25; Giants lost by 1, covering the +5.5 spread (ESPN Week 17 scoreboard).
“I'm also comfortable with the Carolina Panthers at six and a half.”
JAX 26, CAR 0 — Jaguars shut out the Panthers 26-0; Carolina lost by 26, well outside the +6.5 spread (ESPN Week 17 scoreboard).
“I would still take it at eleven if you would take the Arizona.”
PHI 31, ARI 35 — Cardinals beat Eagles 35-31 outright, covering the +11 spread by 15 (ESPN Week 17 scoreboard).
“Indy is the three point favorite. I I just don't trust this this Vegas team, and I know they won't gain No. The truth. No. You gotta you gotta take Colts here. Don't even think about it. We don't even need to break this one down. Keep it simple, stupid. Take the Colts. Who cares if it's Joe Public?”
IND 23-20 LV — Colts beat the Raiders 23-20; Colts -3 pushes exactly (ESPN).
“I'll take I'll take the panthers plus seven.”
JAX 26-0 CAR — Jaguars shut out the Panthers 26-0; Panthers +7 fails to cover badly (ESPN).
“it is dead. Like, that is a dead bet. If it's 14 nothing at any point in this game, we're just not gonna get there with this panthers offense. But I'm gonna stick to back in this panthers defense at home at a big number against Jordan Love on the road. I I just think it's too many point two two points too high. Like, there should be three, three and a half. It's still five. I'll take the value there. It's just trusting the number and trusting this Panther's d and,”
GB 33-30 CAR — Packers beat the Panthers 33-30; Panthers +5 covers (ESPN).
“I would do it. Big balls better than week. Tennessee titans. We're rolling with Nashville. A pretty interesting game that, across the board. Like, I'm looking at action app right now. It's minus one fifteen for the minus two and a half for the Seattle. So if you do think this could get the three, I can understand if you wanna wait, but I just don't think it's gonna happen. I just I do think this will come down before kickoff. So I've been grabbing the two and a half just because of that.”
SEA 20-17 TEN — Seahawks beat the Titans 20-17; Titans +2.5 fails to cover (ESPN).
“So that's that might be the most amateur you've sounded this season, Chad, talking about, your point of ours a little bit. I I think I'm on the same boat where I want the MVP to come through, dude, but I have I don't know. Say I have 5 or 6,000 total invested in McCaffrey to get MVP, which would a nice payday if it hits. I'm gonna have, what, 10 times that amount this week on the Ravens. So it's like like, I love futures. I love them to come through, but you talk to any professional, it's like, I don't give a damn about those futures. I wanna win this week, this game. It's such a crapshoot with those futures that it's like, I I get where you're coming from, but anyone listening to this, you cannot think that way ever when you're betting. It's just I made a mistake. I admitted it. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I'm just letting people know where it's like, you you can't think that way. Maybe in week 18, right, we we take positions and we hedge. I mean, last year was we had the dream of all dream scenario. We we basically had the Jaguars at 10 to one, eleven o one, seven o one, eight to one to win the division last year. They played against the titans in the final week of the season, and it's the easiest hedge of our life. We literally took whatever it was. Half the amount of money we were gonna win, easy hedge, put it all on the titans at whatever that was, plus six, plus seven. The game landed on four or five. Me and Chad hit our Tennessee on the number, and we hit the jags season long. So, it's a little harder to hedge these MVP bets, but at the same time, it's like, don't have to worry about this week. We'll deal with that in week 18. Maybe we'll be able to find a position to take. But, yeah, I'm happy you came around the Ravens. It's like, it's not a play I'm going crazy about where it's like, you gotta take the Ravens. No. The 49ers are incredible. We could easily get blown out here. It's more that we're just playing the number that, what I said. Like, this number's too inflated. Evan gave us the trends about the Ravens as an underdog. Lamar is an underdog. He's been very profitable, especially in this spot where the number is this big. He's been good to us. I mean, me and Chad talked about, like, the time we won on the Chiefs, we won by, like, I think, a point. Like, we got really lucky and covered with the Chiefs against the Ravens. And that's why I remember the game because I remember sweating it really hard, and me and Chad needed it, I think, for a five and o week. And Lamar scares the hell out of you. Like, he's always putting his team in the best position. So, that's why we're doing it right. We're getting a a battle tested veteran quarterback here against as much I I wanna say Purdy's not tested, he's not. Like, he's kind of a guy that, this year when they had that bad run, they lost those three games. He was concussed. They didn't have Trent Williams. I think Debo might have been out of those games too. He's really had one of all his pieces there. He's been really, really dominant in Purdy. So totally get the hesitation for people out there. They're like, they don't they were with Chad, and they wanna be in the 49er side. I know some pros are on the 49er side, but I can tell you most of pros I've talked to, most of the guys betting this, they're on me and Chad or, I guess, Chad's side now, the Ravens. It's like, you just back the Ravens here. In long term, we say it all the time. This will be a winner. The trends back it up. It's a good spot to back them. So a game that I wasn't sure was gonna be r five because we were split on it. I felt like in my head, I was getting ready for you to be like, no. I gotta force in the 40 niners. And I was like, alright. I'll let Chad put in his 40 niners. But, no, it makes me happy to know you've come around. And, yeah, if we can get five and a half in contest, that'd be amazing. Five five and a half on the Ravens.”
BAL 33-19 SF — Ravens beat the 49ers 33-19 on Monday Night Football; Ravens +5.5 covers easily (ESPN).
“I bet the rams at minus four”
LAR 30-22 NO — Rams beat the Saints 30-22; Rams -4 covers (ESPN).
“yeah, the fear is Tomlin's lost his locker room, but Chad just gave you the stats. Me and him, we've been playing this spot every year together. We just always bet Tom on these kind of spots. So no doubt we're gonna bet it. Go grab it too if you can still find it out there, two and a half. But, yeah, it sucks. I hate betting this Pittsburgh team. It's just not been fun.”
PIT 34-11 CIN — Steelers beat the Bengals 34-11; Steelers +2.5 covers easily (ESPN).
“No chickening out. Steelers plus two and a half would say you.”
PIT 34-11 CIN — Steelers beat the Bengals 34-11; Steelers +2.5 covers easily (ESPN).
“He was still on cut concussion protocol yesterday, so no need to rush this bet. I mean, worst case that's why I put a little bet now just at 2 and a half just in case he does come back and all of sudden this balloon's up to three and a half, four. But just gotta gotta keep your alerts on social media. You need to know Adam Schefter whenever he gets cleared, CJ. We love this number. So, you know, we we might early lock in our contest just because we're getting a good number right here on Texans. We know Houston. They're just better at home as well. Browns defense at home, 13 points per game. That's the best in the NFL.”
CLE 36-22 HOU — Browns beat the Texans 36-22; Texans -2.5 fails to cover (ESPN).
“Cleveland and Houston. Early plan Houston for us at two and a half. Open at one and a half. Move quickly to two and a half. Hasn't budged. As far as I know, we're still waiting on word for Stroud, which I think is why it hasn't gone to three. I think wise guys are just buying the number at less than a field goal awaiting the news. As a as a as a matchup, you pointed out the browns have real issues down the road. So I I looked this up. Their past five games on the road, they've allowed 38 points to Indy, a game they won, 24 to Seattle, a loss, 31 to Baltimore, a win, 29 to Denver, a loss, 36 to LA, a loss. They will be without Brandt Delpit, again, who's uninjured reserve, their safety. Their quarterback of the defensive backfield, their leading tackler before he went out. I don't actually think that mattered much against the bears. I do think if CJ plays, that would matter a lot against Houston. I love this pick, and I love that we're getting it two and a half. And I was gonna make it Simon Says, but you're so right. There's too much unknown about CJ. Like, he's still here we are Tuesday morning.”
CLE 36-22 HOU — Browns beat the Texans 36-22; Texans -2.5 fails to cover (ESPN).
“That's what I got it at, falcons plus two and a half.”
ATL 29-10 IND — Falcons beat the Colts 29-10; Falcons +2.5 covers easily (ESPN).
“and we take their number one draft pick. Don't draft the tight end at the fourth pick overall. Take the quarterback and Justin Fields. Yeah. Right? Seattle at Tennessee, we talked about it a little bit. Tennessee plus two and a half. Look. I I I waited to put some notes in for this game until after the game last night. What's interesting is even after the win in Monday night football, this game is still at two and a half. I was leaning Tennessee before. Now I'm 100% gonna have to take Tennessee after the Seattle win, and the the stat I just gave you that we didn't like for Carolina perfectly fits with Seattle. Yeah. Teams one and four straight up in their last five games coming off a win, 36% the last twenty years against the spread. Book it. We're taking Tennessee here.”
SEA 20-17 TEN — Seahawks beat the Titans 20-17; Titans +2.5 fails to cover (ESPN).
“So two and a half, give me Tennessee.”
SEA 20-17 TEN — Seahawks beat the Titans 20-17; Titans +2.5 fails to cover (ESPN).
“they just struggle. They struggle to be consistent in so many ways. So Arizona is terrible. I agree with everything. People's pushed back on this one, but this number's too high. Plus four is is way too high. This should be plus three. So I'll take the free point of value, and I'll take Arizona here.”
CHI 27-16 ARI — Bears beat the Cardinals 27-16; Cardinals +4 fails to cover (ESPN).
“I haven't made any bets in this game other than Lamar Jackson under his passing yardage total”
Lamar Jackson threw for 171 yards (14/24, 1 TD, 1 INT) in Baltimore's 23-7 win over Jacksonville, an easy under (ESPN box score). (Lamar Jackson 171 passing yards (14/24, 1 TD, 1 INT))
“Teams, when they face in those exact scenario, a a 111, 76, and four ATS, so 59%. So I mean, I'm a little worried. Let's talk about chargers. Let's talk about this for a second. At 13, I kinda wanna take it because I'm worried the wise guys are gonna just gonna come in and take the 13 since it already was at fourteen for a second. Yeah. I would say I just took I texted someone to go take go get the 14. It's it's 14 right now. I bet $3.06 5, so I'll take it.”
BUF 24-22 LAC — Bills beat the Chargers 24-22; Chargers +14 covers easily (ESPN).
“the way, by the way, they're now 14 underdogs, the chargers. Stuckey, literally, as I'm looking, just put in the chargers plus 14 in the Action Network app. Yeah. It's a classic spot. Right? It's a short week for the Bills, and they have to travel from east to west. They came off the high of highs by blowing out Dallas, and we expect them to have let down game. Thank god we can't put this in the contest because this is such a bet we'll make. Oh my god. It would be awful. Awful experience. But this is spot we have to bet, especially this week after all the big dogs lost. Right? Like, the jets blown out. Patriots blown out. The who else we have? Cardinals blown out. Like Yep. The the public is just having their way right now, but these are the kind of games that catch them. Right? That's why they're making this spread so big. I bet you if it wasn't like it's been these last couple weeks, this will be, what, 12 and a half, 13 maybe? Yeah. They're just saying, no. We'll hang a 14. Please, anyone come and take this 14. So, I'm right there with you. I'll I'll grab the plus 14, but wouldn't be shocked if this goes up some more. I mean, the Bills,”
BUF 24-22 LAC — Bills beat the Chargers 24-22; Chargers +14 covers easily (ESPN).
“I wanna take it. Like I just said, I wanna take it. And, like, that was my first bet I made. It was 2 and a half. I took the 2.”
MIA 22-20 DAL — Dolphins beat the Cowboys 22-20; Cowboys +2 pushes exactly (ESPN).
“Love Houston. Grabbing the two now”
CLE 36-22 HOU — Browns beat the Texans 36-22; Texans -2 fails to cover (ESPN).
“I I don't gotta read on them, but I'll tell you this much. Atlanta has a dog at home. I'm gonna take it. Like, they're just they're the kind of team where when they're favorites, I wanna fade them, especially on the road. And when they're a home dog, I tend to like to back them, especially in a game where I don't know what's gonna be betting them. Like, I know everyone that took them this week, 90% of the public and 80% of the tickets, wherever it was, they're totally off this Atlanta team. So I'll grab the plus two just now just in case it does move down.”
ATL 29-10 IND — Falcons beat the Colts 29-10; Falcons +2 covers easily (ESPN).
“We're in the foxhole with the Los Angeles Rams minus six and a half.”
LAR 28, WSH 20 — Rams beat Commanders 28-20 (margin +8), covering Los Angeles -6.5 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“bears plus three and a half, panthers plus”
CLE 20, CHI 17 — Browns beat Bears 20-17 (Chicago margin -3), covering +3.5 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“This was my exact decision. The Buffalo Bill's minus two and a half.”
BUF 31, DAL 10 — Bills beat Cowboys 31-10 (margin +21), covering Buffalo -2.5 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“The faves five for now. Alright. I did lock in five games last night. Those five games, bears plus three and a half, panthers plus three and a half,”
CAR 9, ATL 7 — Panthers beat Falcons 9-7 (margin +2), covering Carolina +3.5 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“Yeah. It's honestly I just wanted to get the number at two and a half just before CJ got cleared. Or if he is gonna come back, you know, it'll stink because I'm gonna lose value here. But if he is out, I do think this number will go up to three and a half three. So, I like it. I just I like this spot for Tennessee.”
HOU 19, TEN 16 — Texans beat Titans 19-16 in OT; Tennessee lost outright, busting -2.5 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“Tampa Bay Buccaneers, another one that might be in our round robin, three and a half at the Green Bay packers. I gotta I I bet the I bet the Bucks at three and a half.”
TB 34, GB 20 — Buccaneers beat Packers 34-20 (margin +14), covering Tampa Bay +3.5 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“Starting with Saturday, definitely Pittsburgh. Like, have heavily bet it. Took the two and a half, took the two.”
IND 30, PIT 13 — Colts beat Steelers 30-13 (Pittsburgh margin -17), busting +2 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“And, I mean, it was getting there. I mean, it probably is in my top five at this point, but the Ravens, but, like, I don't know what to do with it. Like, I just as soon as I went back to three, I was like, I gotta grab this because it's gonna go back up, and it just hasn't, which is scaring the hell out of me. So, yeah, my chalkiest bet this week is definitely the Ravens, but,”
BAL 23, JAX 7 — Ravens beat Jaguars 23-7 (margin +16), covering Baltimore -3 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“Interesting. They're jumping off the bears here. Like like you just said, at two and a half, Cleveland makes sense. I I agree with that. But at three and a half, which it is right now, I'd grab the bears. You want me to make this Simon Says? You make this Simon Says. Simon Says. When Simon says do it, we do what Simon says. Yeah. I'm glad you did that because I didn't wanna make it my executive decision because then it just feels like, what am I doing? Then I'm just a homer who's betting the bears every week. And if the weather does impact, which maybe maybe that's something going on there, I actually feel better once again about this bears team if it is bad weather. Like, you guys are really good at running, and you're really good stopping the run right now. So weird weird movement on this number. I mean, I might be walking right into it, but give me the three and a half, Chad. Like, that's that's way too much respect for Joe Flacco”
CLE 20, CHI 17 — Browns beat Bears 20-17 (Chicago margin -3), covering +3.5 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“We're taking the bills at minus two and a half. Just a classic bet in the spot.”
BUF 31, DAL 10 — Bills beat Cowboys 31-10 (margin +21), covering Buffalo -2.5 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“Bills minus two and a half, Bills to win the division plus three ten.”
Buffalo finished the 2023 regular season 11-6 and won the AFC East on a tiebreaker over the 11-6 Dolphins (ESPN 2023 AFC East final standings).
“Josh Allen, MVP, 20 to one.”
Lamar Jackson won the 2023 AP NFL MVP award with 49 of 50 first-place votes; Josh Allen did not win MVP (Wikipedia, AP NFL MVP Award voting results).
“New England getting nine and a half. That's the second biggest home dog in Belichick's career. So it's an opportunity. Like, that's how we view this stuff. So I don't know if this will make our money line round robin just because we expect Mahomes not to lose three straight games. But, man, nine and a half, we can't avoid it, Chad. We gotta bet it.”
KC 27, NE 17 — Chiefs beat Patriots 27-17 (New England margin -10), busting +9.5 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“the rams at seven. Let's say the rams are at seven at a lot of places. I would still take them at seven.”
LAR 28, WSH 20 — Rams beat Commanders 28-20 (margin +8), covering Los Angeles -7 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“We talked Baltimore on Sunday. You were taking a small taste of the ravens at minus three. We still don't know what's happening with Trevor Lawrence. Historically, and we saw this again last week, Lamar terrible as a favorite of more than three, twelve and nineteen as a favorite, five and sixteen against this twelve and nineteen against the spread as a favorite, five and sixteen against the spread when favored by more than three points. You still like Baltimore at minus three and a half? I don't know what to do with it. It's I liked it three. I knew it was gonna go up. That's why I bet it. But I also knew in the back of mind, this is going to be the most public side of any bet this week. Like, the the public is going to hammer the ravens against the jaguars here.”
BAL 23, JAX 7 — Ravens beat Jaguars 23-7 (margin +16), covering Baltimore -3 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“Shock didn't bring up this Bucks Green Bay game. Bucks plus three and a half in Green Bay before Green Bay plays. You know, to me, I'll grab the three and a half just in case what Chad talked about.”
TB 34, GB 20 — Buccaneers beat Packers 34-20 (margin +14), covering Tampa Bay +3.5 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“I know we gotta get out of here real quick, though. What do you think of that Raymond's minus three again It's the jaguar Sunday night. I thought it was really interesting. I'm I'm anxious about Lamar as a favorite. You know? I'm I'm grabbing it. You are? Yeah. I do I have to. Just the Trevor Lawrence, he had no mobility, and that really hampered him. And I feel like he got a little lucky against that Cleveland's defense. And the Raven's defense, that's such a bounce back spot from after getting lit up by Stafford, you know, that you know, I I got it I got it back at a three because how does this not go up? I just I'm seeing it well, by the way, I'm seeing it at three and a half almost everywhere.”
BAL 23, JAX 7 — Ravens beat Jaguars 23-7 (margin +16), covering Baltimore -3 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“Alright. I don't think our next game is our foxhole. Philadelphia, Dallas. Dallas minus three and a half. I'm feeling pretty good about Dallas here. You you had a power rated at four.”
DAL 33, PHI 13 — Cowboys beat Eagles 33-13 (margin +20), covering Dallas -3.5 (ESPN Week 14 scoreboard).
“yeah, you take it. I already bet it at two and a half.”
BUF 20, KC 17 — Bills beat Chiefs 20-17; Kansas City lost outright, busting -2.5 (ESPN Week 14 scoreboard).
“we still love the bears. I guess that's all there is to say. Just prefer to the three and a half, obviously. Grab that over the three.”
CHI 28, DET 13 — Bears beat Lions 28-13 (margin +15), covering Chicago +3.5 (ESPN Week 14 scoreboard).
“Agree with you on the Rams. I'm just a Stafford guy. Like, it when he has the ball late in the game, I know look. I know he can wing it, and I know he might throw an interception that ends the game, but I'm still comfortable having having them in the hook. Like, I did bet them seven and a half earlier in the week racing you know, this is how the world has changed, Simon.”
BAL 37, LAR 31 — Ravens beat Rams 37-31 in OT; Los Angeles lost by 6, covering +7.5 (ESPN Week 14 scoreboard).
“67, and four against the spread. So usually covering those numbers. And then finally, I will say this, guys. I'm on the Giants. I agree with you, Chad. I like the number. But this is just insane, and I gotta say it. This will be the thirty fifth night game for the Jets and Giants since 2018. They are four and thirty straight up, including three and thirty in the last 33. Since 2018, they are one and fifteen straight up at home in night games. Only win? Yeah. Week one this year when the Jets beat the Bills. So tough sled, but I like the six and a half. So let's roll.”
NYG 24, GB 22 — Giants beat Packers 24-22; New York won outright, easily covering +6.5 (ESPN Week 14 scoreboard).
“I'll take the bears plus three. It's a good spot for them. Look. They beat the Vikings.”
CHI 28, DET 13 — Bears beat the Lions 28-13 outright, covering the +3 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“Give me the bears. By the way, let's take the under 40 and a half while we're at it because that line's gonna move move down too. Yeah.”
CHI 28, DET 13 — Bears beat the Lions 28-13, a combined 41 points, just over the 40.5 total (ESPN scoreboard).
“Kansas City Chiefs grabbing now. Two and a half, Simon Says.”
BUF 20, KC 17 — Bills beat the Chiefs 20-17; Kansas City lost outright, busting the -2.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“that's how it is when you bet Carolina. Right? It's gonna come down to a stupid two point conversion. So five and a half matters. If it comes down to that, it can land on five again. You might as well grab the five and a half like I am right now just in case it does drop back down to five, four and a half.”
NO 28, CAR 6 — Saints beat the Panthers 28-6; Carolina lost by 22, well outside the +5.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“So, yeah, we're on, we're on the Rams here at plus seven.”
BAL 37, LAR 31 — Ravens beat the Rams 37-31 in overtime; Rams lost by 6, covering the +7 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“Yeah. I I like honestly, I like the Bengals here. Like, just matchup wise against the Colts. Like, I don't know what the guy's luck rankings, but it feels like the Colts have been crazy lucky on this little win streak they're on right now. Right? They've had a lot of things bounce their way if you look it up all their matchups. So, yeah, I'm seeing one book still with Bangla's plus one and a half. So I'll I'll grab that. I'll throw in a teaser.”
CIN 34, IND 14 — Bengals beat the Colts 34-14 outright, covering the +1.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“Because we are fucking playing the Denver Broncos at the Los Angeles Chargers as three point dogs. Roll it up. Put it in. Whatever you gotta do. You know we're playing the broncos here at plus three.”
DEN 24, LAC 7 — Broncos beat the Chargers 24-7 outright, covering the +3 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“But at minus three, minus two and a half, like, I I bet pretty heavy Sunday night into Monday morning on Dallas.”
DAL 33, PHI 13 — Cowboys beat the Eagles 33-13, covering the -3 line comfortably (ESPN scoreboard).
“but this is a game I had bet right now. I do like the six and a half. I'd probably take it down to five and a half, but once it hits that number, I'd stop. Like, that that feels right. The Giants are terrible. Offensively, they they do have some major weaknesses, but this is way too big of a number for Jordan Love to be favored by.”
NYG 24, GB 22 — Giants beat the Packers 24-22 outright, covering the +6.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“Cincinnati at Jacksonville, Jacksonville plus 10. The total is 39. It's gone up. It was at 38. Was at 38, went down, went back up, now at 39. No. These people know what to do. Under. Under. Under. That's it. That's what we're talking about. It it pays, baby. We're not talking about the side here. I agree with you. We don't like the the side. We like the under at 39 and a half.”
CIN 34, JAX 31 — Bengals beat the Jaguars 34-31 in overtime, a combined 65 points, well over the 39.5 total (ESPN scoreboard).
“Give me Miami minus 12.”
TEN 28, MIA 27 — Titans beat the Dolphins 28-27; Miami lost outright, busting the -12 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“this is his classic situation of I'm gonna take Dallas at minus two and a half, take him at the three.”
DAL 33, PHI 13 — Cowboys beat the Eagles 33-13, covering the -2.5 line comfortably (ESPN scoreboard).
“You sick fuck. You know it's the right side. What is? Taking the bears at plus five.”
CHI 28, DET 13 — Bears beat the Lions 28-13 outright, covering the +5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“That's an interesting one too. I'm writing it down. So, like, that's a number I know my model is gonna have slanted towards the dog. I'm just gonna grab it now because it's seven and half. That's such a key number way too big for the Ram. So, definitely gonna text a runner to go grab me that seven and a half right now.”
BAL 37, LAR 31 — Ravens beat the Rams 37-31 in overtime; Rams lost by 6, covering the +7.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“let's make it our foxhole at six. Foxhole. Green Bay. You know me regardless of what's going on. I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team. I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy. We're in the foxhole with the Green Bay packers at plus six.”
GB 27, KC 19 — Packers beat the Chiefs 27-19 outright, covering the +6 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“at Washington. This was Simon Says, Washington plus nine and a half. I'm a little worried about this one only because it's becoming a public dog in the same way we were on the Raiders last week, and it was a public dog. And, you know, Sam Howell is having one of those blow them up kinda years. I do think that the commander's offense is is good, and they've got opportunities to score. But their defense is so bad that the it's gonna they're gonna have to score every time they have the ball in order to keep up with the dolphins. So I'm a little I bet it. I'm a little antsy about it.”
MIA 45, WSH 15 — Dolphins blew out the Commanders 45-15; Washington lost by 30, well outside the +9.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“Indianapolis at Tennessee, you and I love the titans here. As of Tuesday, this was one of your biggest bets. Since the pod has been reported, Jonathan Taylor will be out. I'm actually surprised that that the number hasn't moved because it was at one and a half one. It really hasn't moved off of that. I don't know why anyone likes the Colts here. That's good for us, though, because if it flipped to, them being a favorite, Chad, we would've been scared off because we hate that stat about dogs being favorites. We do. Yeah. I'm looking at the action app right now. Only one book has them at minus one and a half. The rest is at minus one.”
IND 31, TEN 28 — Colts beat the Titans 31-28 in overtime; Tennessee lost outright, missing the +1 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“So I'll do the Rams for one, and then I'll do Pittsburgh for the other one. So Tomlin's not great at covering in these spots, but I do feel like he usually wins in these kind of spots.”
ARI 24, PIT 10 — Cardinals beat the Steelers 24-10; Pittsburgh lost outright, busting the moneyline pick (ESPN scoreboard).
“that's the only thing that's scaring me because, like, deep down, I'm I'm getting hurt at home plus three. It's a no brainer pick. It's like getting Mahomes under the under the three. Right? It's like, even though it didn't work the previous week against the Eagles, if we got catches the ball, that's a nice bet on Mahomes. And same thing goes here with Hertz where it's like, it might not win this week, but if you've been Ben Hertz at home, especially on the money line, he's only had one loss in two years at home. It's it's crazy, but that's just that that's facts. Like, that's what the number is. So, it's the team that even if we're down 24 to 10 in the fourth quarter, you still feel like you have a chance to cover this number with the Seagulls team. They just never give up. They never die. So, yeah, I'm I bet it. I take it. I've already bet this. Again, for a little amounts,”
SF 42, PHI 19 — 49ers routed the Eagles 42-19; Philadelphia lost outright, well outside the +3 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“Green Bay packers at home against the chiefs, plus seven right now, already grabbing it. Gotta do it.”
GB 27-KC 19 — Packers beat Chiefs 27-19 on Sunday Night Football; Green Bay's 8-point win covers the +7 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“super chalky. Just grabbing it right now before it disappears. Is that Detroit minus three minus three and a half, if you can find it? I just think it's gonna go up.”
NO 28-DET 33 — Lions beat Saints 33-28; Detroit's 5-point margin covers the -3.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“Foxhall, Houston plus one and a half.”
HOU 21-JAX 24 — Jaguars beat Texans 24-21; Houston lost by 3, missing the +1.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'll do that Giants number. I do think it comes down to three. So grab the three and a half if you can.”
NYG 10-NE 7 — Giants beat Patriots 10-7; New York's 3-point margin covers the +3.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“Big balls better than week. Cleveland browns plus two and a half.”
DEN 29-CLE 12 — Broncos routed Browns 29-12; Cleveland lost by 17, well outside the +2.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“This is when you wanna back the chargers, not when they're favorites, but when they're over a three point dog. Usually, that's really good to us because Herbert just plays these close, ugly games. So, yeah, Chad. Like, a game this might be one of our five. Like, the more we're talking about thinking about it. I gave it up. I mean, Chad, I didn't bet the Sunday night. I don't have a penny on this game. I wish I did now. It's just a nice number and a nice spot to back the chargers team. So, yeah, the hope is I'm gonna grab this three and a half now, grab the four when we get off this call, and then by kickoff, it's down to three. And I feel good because I got closing line value. But,”
LAC 10-BAL 20 — Ravens beat Chargers 20-10; Los Angeles lost by 10, missing the +3.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“So pretty boring by me. I I was I wanted to get there in the 40 niners, especially all the stats Evan gave. But like Chad just said, these it's it's tough these divisional games to not take the dog for me. And Thanksgiving, Chad's right. Like, I gotta break away from that. I just can't take all the dogs here. So I am forcing this lion's pick a little bit, but I think Chad just talked about it. It's like, do we really think golf's gonna have a back to back three turnover game? No. It's that was just that was such an outlier, such a bad game that they were due for. And I'm pretty sure Evan said before that game, he'd been in an 11 o ATS run against the North. So the bears broke that. Wouldn't be shocked to see him start another another, run here. Right? It's like the Green Bay coming high off a win, like you said, a short week now on the road. The lions know they kinda stole one there. Right? I don't think Dan Campbell's gonna be blowing smoke up their ass all week. I think it's gonna be you guys got lucky. You better get ready. We got another divisional game coming in here. So I'm right there with you, Chad. I I I I wanted to be on Green Bay, but I like the lines here, especially at seven and a half. I don't I don't mind that number at all.”
DET 22-GB 29 — Packers beat Lions 29-22 on Thanksgiving; Detroit lost by 7, missing the -7.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“yeah, I'm gonna have a lot more money on the seahawks at that seven. It's just too big of a number for a divisional game.”
SEA 13-SF 31 — 49ers routed Seahawks 31-13 on Thanksgiving; Seattle lost by 18, well outside the +7 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“yeah, I want to be on the bears. Like, this guy Dobbs is not as good as he's perceived by the public right now. It's it doesn't make sense how he keeps doing it. I totally get it if you're scared off you don't wanna do it, but I'm telling you the value is on the bears. Like, this number should be two and a half, three. You know, the fact that it's three and a half, I'll take the number just because Chad said it. Like, the bears obviously are a bad team. They're not that good, but”
MIN 10-CHI 12 — Bears beat Vikings 12-10 on Monday Night Football; Chicago's 2-point win covers the +3.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“We need Denver for our lungs. As Bob Scucci likes to say, we need Denver minus two and a half for our lungs. It's the difference between two and three or one and four for the first time all season. What's the deal, though? We dropped two no matter what after Thanksgiving? Yeah. Right now, I think we have So we don't care. Yeah. I guess not. But, like I care because I wanna win money, but I think our worst week this year is two and three. Right? I think we have two two and three weeks. So yeah. Yeah. That'd be nice. You know, like, two and three, obviously. Like, I wanna win money, but, yeah, if that if the bears had lost, I you you would see me dying here right now if that hadn't covered. Like, I just I really needed that one. So, yeah, still feel the same. Feeling good about Denver. Like, the number, like, their defense in this spot against Dobbs. Have zero confidence right now after today. Just did so bad today betting wise. Got got no confidence, but still believe in it. Still believe in Denver. I think it's a good spot. So,”
DEN 21-MIN 20 — Broncos beat Vikings 21-20, a 1-point margin that falls short of the -2.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“I passed on that and took Sean Kerner, Harrison Smith under six and a half tackles at Pretty Big Juice minus one thirty five instead.”
In the Bears' 12-10 win over the Vikings on Monday Night Football, Harrison Smith recorded 2 total tackles (1 solo, 1 assisted), well under the 6.5 line, so the under wins (ESPN box score). (Harrison Smith 2 tackles (1 solo, 1 ast))
“So you know what I'm gonna do? I'm a throw a little bet on it right now because Chad's right. Drew Locke might be the guy for the Seahawks. So, again, this bet could change. I'm just gonna bet this now because the six is still available at a couple books. Couple books are showing actually lower numbers, so shop around. I'm just I'm just talking bet three six five on here. But, yeah, that's a good point. I didn't I forgot. Gino Gino is a little banged up in that game. So Yeah. Gonna take a little taste here on the 40 niners.”
SEA 13-SF 31 — 49ers routed Seahawks 31-13 on Thanksgiving; San Francisco's 18-point margin covers the -6 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“I like Pittsburgh. That's that's a that's a that's a nice number to get them as a dog right now. They're plus plus one, plus one and a half. I grabbed that number right when it opened.”
CIN 10-PIT 16 — Steelers beat Bengals 16-10; Pittsburgh's 6-point margin easily covers the +1 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“I don't know. I don't know. So I'm gonna pay and see. I'm gonna grab the three and a half now just because I at least have some faith in this in this Giants team. Like, the kid, DeVito, finally grew a Tommy DeVito. Touchdown, Tommy. T d stands for touchdown. Put the ball downfield, and that's what I want from a quarterback. It's like, I don't care if you're completing it. At least push the ball downfield and show me that you have some type of confidence. And he completed it this week, so maybe he'll burn us next week, but it's three and a half against Mac Jones. I mean, who the hell is Mac Jones? We catch a three and a half against anyone. So I'll take that number.”
NYG 10-NE 7 — Giants beat Patriots 10-7; New York's 3-point margin covers the +3.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“So why don't we just say it right now, Denver minus two and a half? So we're at five for the record.”
DEN 21-MIN 20 — Broncos beat Vikings 21-20, a 1-point margin that falls short of the -2.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm in all Miami. I've been betting Miami, you know, since Sunday night, and now that number is all the up to 13 and a half. And I I I'm gonna still throw a little on there.”
MIA 20-LV 13 — Dolphins beat Raiders 20-13, a 7-point margin that falls short of the -13.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“On Sunday night, I said to you I kinda like the bears at a big number. I wasn't joking about it. You were kinda with me. By Tuesday, we were both all in on the bears at plus 10. I debated making it my executive decision game before I decided to make the steelers my executive decision game.”
DET 31-CHI 26 — Lions beat Bears 31-26; Bears lost by 5, easily covering the +10 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“So I think we're in agreement here that Carolina plus 10 and a half is making it in.”
DAL 33-CAR 10 — Cowboys routed Panthers 33-10; Carolina lost by 23, well outside the +10.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“I did take a taste of the panthers on the money line. You can see that in the Action Network app.”
DAL 33-CAR 10 — Panthers lost outright to the Cowboys 10-33, so the Carolina moneyline busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“Alright. Let's recap. Our foxhole, Arizona plus five, one of Simon's biggest bets of the week.”
HOU 21-ARI 16 — Texans beat Cardinals 21-16, a 5-point margin that lands exactly on the +5 line for a push (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm on the eagles. I'm taking the three. I'm happy to take it, but you just we talked about, like, this Mahomes spot has not been good to us”
KC 17-PHI 21 — Eagles beat Chiefs 21-17 on Monday night; Philadelphia's 4-point margin covers the +3 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“It's three and a half. I'm on the Ravens then. So it's it's nothing crazy. I mean, don't have to think too much into it. It's a simple fact of it's a short week.”
BAL 34, CIN 20 — Ravens beat Bengals 34-20; Ravens -3.5 win by 14, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“I'm grab grab Miami now that it's it's under 13. Simon Says Miami minus 12.”
MIA 20, LV 13 — Dolphins beat Raiders 20-13; Dolphins -12 win by only 7, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Just wait. I think this could keep going up, brother. I think you might be able to you might be able to get seven. What about Pittsburgh plus three and a half this week against Cleveland? It's plus four in bet three six five. Well, there you go. I'm grabbing it.”
CLE 13, PIT 10 — Browns beat Steelers 13-10; Steelers +4 lose by 3, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“chiefs minus two and a half at home against the eagles. Yeah. I I love the eagles here. Thank you. That's my guy. Love I I love the eagles in this spot. I feel like they are performing at a higher level and more comfortable with who they are. Especially offensively. It feels like offensively, they keep getting better and better every week. This Eagles team where the chiefs, they've just been spinning their tires now for weeks, but they've luckily been going against subpar competition. Like, Miami should have beat them. Right? Doesn't it feel like they stole that game from Miami where they didn't score a single point in the second half, but they still somehow beat Miami, which is crazy? By the way, there is a plus three available minus one zero five. So I am going to bet that right now before it goes away, and it's gone. It's down to two and a half again. Literally as I was pressing bet Bet. It changed to two and a half. Yeah. That that's weird they hung the three, but I get it. Right? The chief's at home. You got we always talk Mahomes at this number.”
KC 17, PHI 21 — Eagles beat Chiefs 21-17; Eagles +3 win outright, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“The big ball's bet of the week is the New York Jets plus one.”
LV 16, NYJ 12 — Raiders beat Jets 16-12; Jets +1 lose outright, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Exact decision, Cleveland plus six.”
BAL 31, CLE 33 — Browns beat Ravens 33-31; Browns +6 win outright, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“Have a way too much money I I care to omit on New Orleans at minus two and a half.”
MIN 27, NO 19 — Vikings beat Saints 27-19; Saints -2.5 lose by 8, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Denver broncos plus seven and a half against the Buffalo Bills.”
BUF 22, DEN 24 — Broncos beat Bills 24-22; Broncos +7.5 win outright, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“You gotta do it, people. What are you saving Dallas for? You have to use them this week if you still got them.”
DAL 49, NYG 17 — Cowboys beat Giants 49-17; Cowboys moneyline wins outright (ESPN box score).
“Oh, they are? That's right. They're wrong? Nothing changed. I think they've been favorites, haven't they? But they're minus three and a half. Alright. Then shit. I guess I wrote down wrong. That's weird. Weird. Yeah. It's it's a game where, you know, I'm just gonna be happy to take Carolina, and I'm happy to take the under.”
CHI 16, CAR 13 — Bears beat Panthers 16-13; Panthers +3.5 lose by 3, cover the spread (ESPN box score).
“the total is 40 prime time unders, twenty two and seven, one sixty one, one zero two and three since 2019, another prime time under last night. Actually, twenty three and seven because I forgot to update from last night. So three prime time unders this weekend. The bears should have beaten New Orleans outright. Like, the bears had five turnovers. New Orleans still only won by seven. Bryce Young throws two pick sixes, which were the difference in the game. We like Carolina a lot on Sunday. I think it was the right side. They dominated that game. More total yards, more total plays, more yards per play, more rushing yards. Indy was truly terrible. What do we wanna do here? Just bet the under? Move on? Yeah. A bit of a weird line, though. Right? Doesn't it feel like a Justin Fields line? It it feels like a Justin Fields line. It feels well, why do you say Justin Fields line? Because the bears are three and a half point dogs. Like, if if we knew Fields was No. No. No. Bears are favorites. Something changed? Oh, they are? That's right. They're wrong? Nothing changed. I think they've been favorites, haven't they? But they're minus three and a half. Alright. Then shit. I guess I wrote down wrong. That's weird. Weird. Yeah. It's it's a game where, you know, I'm just gonna be happy to take Carolina, and I'm happy to take the under. A lot of conversation about when the books are going to adjust to this trend and when they're gonna catch, you know, us betting these unders. As long as the money keeps coming in late on the over, I'm really not too worried about the books catching up to us. I mean, that number last night moved from, I believe, 39 and closed at 41 in a lot of books by kickoff. Like, that's what keeps happening, people. I'm telling you. Like, you might think everyone's on the under because on the app and, you know, in the action app, it says, you know, all the money, all the tickets on the under. In that last hour, so much money always comes in on the over. It's either people thinking they're smarter than ever all of us, and they're like, you know what? We're due for an over. They come in on it, and then Joe Public comes in on it. So right now, yeah, all the bets, the money is on the under. It'll probably flip when it gets closer to it. I have to just do it. I have to take it all. I have to take the under, and it's just a”
CHI 16, CAR 13 — Bears beat Panthers 16-13, combined 29 points; under 40 wins (ESPN box score).
“this jaguars team that I mean, they're they're probably the sec what? The second hottest team of football behind the ravens? I mean, people don't realize it because they just came off a bye week. But Yeah. That's what I mean. It's very sneaky that they're six and two. You like, the AFC South is becoming more interesting because of the Texans, but they're, like, slowly but surely, they started they started badly. They've been winning games. They've been winning ugly games. They haven't even reached their peak, and they're six and two. Yeah. And, honestly, you know, that that Houston game was probably their worst game of the year. They lost, what was it, seventeen thirty seven. They, like, they got dominated. But if you go back and look, that was that wonky game of, you know, Charles Arms can stop turning the ball over. They got a kick return Houston by, I think, like, a fullback, something crazy like that. And, you know, since then, they've been good. Like, they beat Atlanta. They beat Buffalo. They beat the Colts. They beat the Saints, then they just beat Pittsburgh. Then they had a bye week. That's my only fear here is it's just like, what are we not seeing, Chad? Because that's obviously professional money that's made this go up to three now, but I'll take the three. If the public and a couple pros love the 40 niners and, you know, Chad just said it. Like, Shanahan, he's kind of a different coach than at home as a favorite than he is on the road as a favorite. And”
JAX 3, SF 34 — 49ers routed Jaguars 34-3; Jaguars +3 lose by 31, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Baltimore is a six point favorite. I loved it on Sunday. It was at five. I bet it at five. It moved up. I bet it again at six. Give me the Cleveland Browns. My exact decision.”
BAL 31, CLE 33 — Browns beat Ravens 33-31; Browns +6 win outright, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“I'm gonna go with the Bengals, and I'll back them at six and a half here. You know what? Simon says six and a half Bengals.”
CIN 27, HOU 30 — Texans beat Bengals 30-27; Bengals -6.5 lose outright, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“team, another one we talked about it on on Sunday night, they're at Minnesota. The game opened at three, Minnesota plus three, down to two and a half. We expected it to move in the Vikings direction. It did. I mentioned earlier in the show when talking about the bears how lucky the saints got. And all the stats are in our direction here about how terrible Carr is as a favorite. He did not cover against the bears. They needed five turnovers to win. I went back and counted yesterday when I was doing my research. All of those turnovers for the bears were in bears territory, led to 10 points. Another was a missed saints field goal, include a fourth down stop and a punt. Like, they couldn't convert anything. We've been talking about Derek Carr being better as he got closer to the goal line. That wasn't it. This team got very lucky to walk away from that game with a win. So now we got Josh Dobbs. There's always something weird about backup quarterbacks when they come in. It it flips the script on your bet. Right? Because all of a sudden, like, there's havoc that's being created, in weird ways that a team has to defend against. Josh Dobbs doesn't have that this week. He might just go back to being Josh Dobbs from the cardinals. So, I don't really have a strong opinion on this game. Yeah. Another game where I it feels like we're we're able to buy low on the saints team. I think most people perceive what you just said, which is, like, the saints got pretty lucky. They didn't play that good last week, which is true. Like, they didn't play that great. How only reason I wanted to back the Vikings because it's a fun story. It's a fun team, but the numbers move too much. The value is now on the saints. You're getting a better team under three playing against, you know, a team's backup they just brought in. Like, you they're gonna see the tape. The tape will be pretty simple. It's like, if you can stop the you can stop Dobbs from, you know, running outside the pocket and picking up first downs, they're dead. Like, the guy the guy only knew when when if you go back and watch a film, when they would run routes, they basically only had five plays to run. They must have went to him and said, what are the five plays you know? And they just ran those five plays. It's I'm with everyone. It's such a fun story, but I need to, like, be the professional gamer I am and take the value here. The value is the saints.”
MIN 27, NO 19 — Vikings beat Saints 27-19; Saints -2.5 lose by 8, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Seattle is one of the games that he liked. I got it at six. It's moving up in some places, but I do love Seattle in this spot.”
SEA 29, WSH 26 — Seahawks beat Commanders 29-26; Seahawks -6 win by only 3, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“I bet this at seven and a half on the broncos.”
BUF 22, DEN 24 — Broncos beat Bills 24-22; Broncos +7.5 win outright, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“I've said it many times. We have Cincinnati minus one and a half in the contest. That is the current line. Simon and I are both on Cincinnati in a decent sized way. Accurate? Yeah. I'm in I'm in on it.”
24-18 — Cincinnati Bengals beat Buffalo Bills 24-18, a 6-point margin that covers -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“We're betting Mahomes to win. Yeah. We have zero evidence not to bet on Kansas City and Mahomes for all the things you just said. I know there's sharp groups coming in. But by the way, we're sharp sometimes too. I do not fear betting on Kansas City in this spot. I know. That's what's giving me fear. You're just so confident. I hate it. You sound like them. I just I I don't know how these people can bet this game so confidently, especially the Miami side. I'm not the biggest trend better. I mean, the trend that Evan gave us is incredible. Like, 1919 and six under under three points or as a dog. It's like, how do we not do it? So I hate it. Like, I would have much more confidence if this had gone to three because that means a lot of the pros were on this with us. Told you it's a smart group. Man, like, to move this number, especially when the books know every teaser everything's gonna start Sunday morning tied to the chiefs. All the bets are tied to the chiefs. So that's what's giving me pause here. It's like, it's a really big stand alone game. And I know the books are good. Right? They crushed last week. The chiefs losing outright. This is our one of our more public plays of the year. I'm so happy we don't have to put this in the contest because I just I told you yesterday I was probably gonna buy out of my chief's position. I haven't. I just actually end up putting a little bit more on it at the minus one and a half. And Good for you. Yeah. I'm just gonna trust Mahomes.”
21-14 — Kansas City Chiefs beat Miami Dolphins 21-14 in Frankfurt, a 7-point margin that covers -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm dug in. I've already bet this heavily at the three with New England. I haven't let the 3 and a half scare me off.”
20-17 — New England lost outright to Washington 17-20; Patriots' -3 margin busts -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Well, look. I already bet the Bucks at two and a half. I'm not afraid of this one.”
39-37 — Houston Texans beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers 39-37; Bucs' -2 margin covers +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“we're pretty much betting that the panthers defense, which they've done all year, show up at home, is going to show up again. And I I love the two and a half. I think it's such a key number.”
27-13 — Indianapolis Colts beat Carolina Panthers 27-13; Panthers' -14 margin busts +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“eagles are a three point favorite. I'm a little squeamish on this. This was my exact decision. I know you've been waffling on this too. We've got a lot of noise on both sides of this game with people liking Dallas a lot right now. What we're hearing statistically, what they like about Dallas in, how McCarthy has been calling plays for Dallas the past few games, much more aggressive, much fewer runs on first down. Eagles' third luckiest team in the NFL for the luck rankings. And then Evan shared this. Dak is twenty five and ten against the spread versus the NFC East. All that said all that said, fly, Eagles, fly.”
28-23 — Philadelphia Eagles beat Dallas Cowboys 28-23, a 5-point margin that covers -3 (ESPN box score).
“I just I cannot be talked out of the Bengals here. I just love the Bengals, and I love this number.”
24-18 — Cincinnati Bengals beat Buffalo Bills 24-18, a 6-point margin that covers -2 (ESPN box score).
“Most of my money right now is bet on the jets at three and a half, and the panthers are plus three, and I I hate this week.”
27-6 — LA Chargers beat New York Jets 27-6; Jets' -21 margin busts +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Our money line underdog round robin right now, Carolina, Tampa, Jets, Washington, Seattle.”
Moneyline round robin busts: Carolina lost 13-27 to Indianapolis, Washington beat New England 20-17 (win), Tampa Bay lost 37-39 to Houston, NY Jets lost 6-27 to LA Chargers, Seattle lost 3-37 to Baltimore (ESPN box scores; only 1 of 5 legs won).
“Give me the Eagles minus three executive decision. Are you with me?”
28-23 — Philadelphia Eagles beat Dallas Cowboys 28-23, a 5-point margin that covers -3 (ESPN box score).
“I'm taking a two and half because I know the pros are gonna come in on the panthers.”
27-13 — Indianapolis Colts beat Carolina Panthers 27-13; Panthers' -14 margin busts +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“this was gonna be what Simon says, but, like, luckily, it stayed at three. Go go grab the jets.”
27-6 — LA Chargers beat New York Jets 27-6; Jets' -21 margin busts +3 (ESPN box score).
“Sunday night, this game was available at Cincinnati plus one and a half. I bet that.”
24-18 — Cincinnati Bengals beat Buffalo Bills 24-18, a 6-point margin that covers +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“lined open to two, got up to two and a half. It's been bouncing around. There's two and a halfs and twos out there. We like Kansas City here. I mean, Miami has not played well against good defenses, struggled against the Pats when they were healthy early in the year, lost to the Bills when they were at full strength, lost to the Eagles even when the Eagles were beat up in the secondary. And as you have said all year, the Chiefs are grading out as one of the best defenses in the league. Opponents' QBR is bad against them whether they're getting pressure or not getting pressure. Their their Achilles heel is the run, but Miami's not great against the run. I feel like I wanna keep playing this until it gets to three. Yeah. I'm definitely leaking a little confidence, Cabrera, who I was Sunday night. I know some some sharp groups, they like Miami here. They like the the the basically, Miami is in a spot where their their offense should excel against this chief's defense. And I don't know. I just I feel like it's a it's a lot of opinions, and it's not a lot of fact based. And it's like, I don't really know what to make make of it where it's like, to me, Meansheh gave you the stats. Mahomes as three point favorite or less or as a dog. He's nineteen and six ATS. I can't fight those trends. Like, we just we we play Mahomes here. It's uncomfortable. Don't love it. And, like, Miami feels just just right now, Miami's offense feels like they're gonna be able to give the chief some problems. But, you know, even if we're down a touchdown or whatever it is, end of the game, it's like, we got Mahomes. That's that's the nice thing about Betting Mahomes. And, you know, me and Chad talk all the time. We love fading him when he's when he's a big favorite because these they don't know how to close team out. But he doesn't know how to get closed out either. It's like Mahomes will never stop fighting, this number will never be in doubt. So I wanted this to be in our contest, but now I'm feeling lucky that we can't put it in because I I just don't have a feel for it. It feels like maybe I'm overlooking Miami here, but it's just it's just such a weird number. I don't get why it's not three. So I'm taking the Chiefs still still in the chiefs, but definitely interesting gonna hearing what the pros are saying about this one. Like, I've talked to a couple of smart groups who like Miami, and they like Miami now with Ramsey on defense. Like, they feel like it's a big upgrade. Again, I just I keep pushing back because an upgrade because he put against Mac Jones. Like, I don't know. It feels like Ramsey wasn't really tested yet. So be a be a great test for Ramsey, that defense, see how they perform against Mahomes coming off an embarrassing loss, something that, you know, doesn't really happen to Mahomes. So if if he if he gets fully cleared come Friday that he's fully healthy over the sickness and if they travel well I don't I'm not sure what their travel schedule is yet, but, you know, it's a big deal. Like, them them flying from Kansas City all the way to Germany, I think that's, like, a seven or eight hour difference time clockwise. If they fly in Friday, probably won't make this one of my bigger bets of the week. But if they're if they get in early this week, you know, everyone's getting cleared. How do we not love the Chiefs here, Chad? It's it's it's a good number. We we play this spot. We totally love the Chiefs. We're gonna be on the Chiefs. At the end of the day, until the Chiefs prove otherwise, if I'm getting them at less than a field goal, I'm taking the chiefs.”
21-14 — Kansas City Chiefs beat Miami Dolphins 21-14 in Frankfurt, a 7-point margin that covers -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'll I'll bet Cleveland already took the seven and a half. I'll bet the eight.”
27-0 — Cleveland Browns shut out Arizona Cardinals 27-0, a 27-point margin that covers -8 (ESPN box score).
“I'm grabbing the minus two right now with this patriots team.”
20-17 — Washington Commanders beat New England Patriots 20-17; Patriots' -3 margin busts -2 (ESPN box score).
“I'm on the chargers and the under, but not I mean, it's rare. I'm just, like, I'm probably not gonna watch a game. Probably not gonna watch this game. It's 02:00 in the afternoon here in Hawaii. I I rather go to the beach or do something else than watch the bears and chargers. Just two two bad teams, but I'll put I'll put some money on it. I'll,”
30-13 — Los Angeles Chargers beat Chicago Bears 30-13 outright; moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“feels like a good spot for Kansas City here this week. Yeah. Super chalky, but we're just taking it because it's under three right now. And, you know, plenty of books out there at minus two. You can get that as well, which is a key number.”
21-14 — Kansas City Chiefs beat Miami Dolphins 21-14 in Frankfurt, a 7-point margin that covers -2 (ESPN box score).
“And I've been all over the seven and half, and now it's down to seven. So gotta be a foxhole bet.”
DEN 24, KC 9 — Broncos beat Chiefs 24-9; Denver covers +7 (ESPN box score).
“Big balls, Washington plus six and a half.”
PHI 38, WSH 31 — Eagles beat Commanders 38-31; Washington loses by 7, does not cover +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Exact decision, Dallas minus six and a half. If anyone's asking, by the way, my biggest bet last week was Philadelphia. My biggest bet this week, Dallas Cowboys.”
DAL 43, LAR 20 — Cowboys beat Rams 43-20; Dallas covers -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Simon says New York Giants plus three”
NYJ 13, NYG 10 — Jets beat Giants 13-10 in OT; New York Giants lose by exactly 3, pushing against +3 (ESPN box score).
“Green Bay plus one has been the play.”
MIN 24, GB 10 — Vikings beat Packers 24-10; Green Bay loses by 14, does not cover +1 (ESPN box score).
“I took the three. I've taken the two and a half on Pittsburgh. I mean, we don't have a choice.”
JAX 20, PIT 10 — Jaguars beat Steelers 20-10; Pittsburgh loses by 10, does not cover +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“We gotta we gotta use the chargers here. This is this is a huge number”
LAC 30, CHI 13 — Chargers beat Bears 30-13; Los Angeles wins outright, survivor cashes (ESPN box score).
“I've bet Arizona plus eight and a half. One of the things that that convinced me to do, it was in our conversation on Tuesday, thinking about Kyler Murray and the potential to come back.”
BAL 31, ARI 24 — Ravens beat Cardinals 31-24; Arizona loses by 7, covers +8.5 (ESPN box score).
“I got the cowboys at minus six. I think them coming off a buy with that defense”
DAL 43, LAR 20 — Cowboys beat Rams 43-20; Dallas covers -6 (ESPN box score).
“I already threw someone on rams at seven. I mean, that just got that was way too high when it went up to seven.”
DAL 43, LAR 20 — Cowboys beat Rams 43-20; Los Angeles loses by 23, does not cover +7 (ESPN box score).
“Simon says Simon says giants, go grab the three right now.”
NYJ 13, NYG 10 — Jets beat Giants 13-10 in OT; New York Giants lose by exactly 3, pushing against +3 (ESPN box score).
“Jacksonville at Pittsburgh. Forget the opponent. They nameless gray faces. I bet this immediately on Sunday night when it was at two.”
JAX 20, PIT 10 — Jaguars beat Steelers 20-10; Pittsburgh loses by 10, does not cover +2 (ESPN box score).
“I bet this at two and a half. I bet Seattle minus two and a half. Shout out to Brandon Anderson who had this as one of his hot reads.”
SEA 24, CLE 20 — Seahawks beat Browns 24-20; Seattle covers -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“yeah, I hate it where it's like, me and Chad, we're supposed to take Arizona here. Everything about this is saying take Arizona. This this game here, if the Ravens win this, they go on a three game homestead after this. Like, it's they they're definitely looking ahead to that where it's just like, we just gotta get through one more road game on this shitty ass field they have down in Arizona where everyone complains about that damn field. But I I hate it make you sick, Chad, but we're supposed to take day and a half here. I got this number at seven. We're getting a point and a half of value. You know, don't don't go crazy betting this one right now, but, like, I've I've definitely placed a a decent amount on the eight and a half right now.”
BAL 31, ARI 24 — Ravens beat Cardinals 31-24; Arizona loses by 7, covers +8.5 (ESPN box score).
“Denver, plus eight, home dog against Kansas City. I did bet it at this number. It was eight and a half on Sunday. Yeah. The only reason we were waiting is we were hoping it might go a little bit higher. It's moved in the direction of the broncos, not surprising, massive pros Joe's game right now. I I I it moved down to seven and a half, went back up to eight. It's toggling between those two numbers, at least from what I've seen all day here on Tuesday. That's why I took the eight.”
DEN 24, KC 9 — Broncos beat Chiefs 24-9; Denver covers +8 (ESPN box score).
“this number should be six and a half, seven. It's eight and a half right now, and it's one of the first bets I made. I just didn't bring it up because I was waiting for Chad to say it, but I'm on Denver.”
DEN 24, KC 9 — Broncos beat Chiefs 24-9; Denver covers +8.5 (ESPN box score).
“their adjustments is we just score more than you, and I don't think they're gonna get away with that here in this Eagles game. So, would still put them in our contest of two and a half, Chad.”
PHI 31, MIA 17 — Eagles beat Dolphins 31-17; Philadelphia covers -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“the only fear for me is the fact they're coming back from playing abroad, Chad. Like, that's the only worry because I keep having that Evan stat pop in my head about those closed games in the fourth quarter on these London teams. But even if this is minus three and a half in our contest, I'm not gonna let it scare me off. Like, I'll I'll bite the bullet. I'll ride it. But, obviously, dream scenario, Chad, is the minus two and a half. But right now, I'm almost positive. I checked this morning. You can get the two and a half in contest. So, hopefully, you guys don't move the number while we're doing this live show, and we can get the Ravens again. But we know the deal. In the contest, if the line moves to whatever it is, the Ravens minus one twenty at minus three, it's gonna be three and a half or minus one fifteen. It's gonna be three and a half. If it's still at one ten,”
BAL 38, DET 6 — Ravens beat Lions 38-6; Baltimore covers -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“Simon, as I was saying about the big balls bed of the week, the Atlanta falcons. There we go. A two and a half point There we go. He found it. He found it, people. At the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We were hoping to move the three, but right now, the wise guys love it. Simon seems to be convinced from the sharp calls that this will now be our big balls bet of the week. And it makes me sick. I cannot believe look. We said we were gonna have to do this anyways, but we were just hoping it would get to three. We're gonna bet on this Atlanta, Tampa Bay game. And and to be honest, this game, if we're doing the luck rankings and we like when we do the luck rankings, we like there to be a certain threshold before we officially make it a luck rankings game. So this can't be an official luck rankings game, but the falcons have ended up in the bad beats scenario for the past six weeks. Brutal luck for them this year so far. This game is one ranking place away from a luck game. So to me, it's essentially a luck rankings game. Saw that this morning from Nick Giffin in our Slack channel before we came on the air. So I agree with you. It's gotta it's gotta we gotta do it.”
ATL 16, TB 13 — Falcons beat Buccaneers 16-13; Atlanta covers +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“with the Steelers, that'll be interesting. I continue to be a Mike Tomlin backer, and there's nothing you can do to get me off that. So I bet the three”
PIT 24, LAR 17 — Steelers beat Rams 24-17; Pittsburgh covers +3 (ESPN box score).
“This is a good right spot for the seahawks at home against Arizona divisional game. Give me the seahawks, Chad, for a survivor.”
SEA 20, ARI 10 — Seahawks beat Cardinals 20-10; Seattle wins outright, survivor cashes (ESPN box score).
“we won't torture people putting in our final five, but we'll throw them in the round robin. Oh my god. Pittsburgh, Atlanta, New York Giants, LA Chargers, Chicago Bears. Gross.”
Round robin legs: Steelers beat Rams 24-17 (won); Falcons beat Buccaneers 16-13 (won); Giants beat Commanders 14-7 (won); Chiefs beat Chargers 31-17, so Chargers ML lost; Bears beat Raiders 30-12 (won). One losing leg busts the parlay (ESPN box scores).
“Baltimore is right now no. Now it's up to three. So we bet this right away on Sunday night. We're on the side of the wise guys. The bets are on the lions. The money is on the ravens. Lions we said this last week, and and we didn't think it could get higher, which is why we took the box. Isn't that the the the lions value has never been higher in a burn best. Jared Goff is the most profitable QB against spread the fat past five years. That's getting even better this year. The ravens, meanwhile, have not played great. Coming home from London, Lamar Jackson not great as a favorite. We think this is the right spot. The lions, the last four games, 70% against the spread. Lions and the ravens have both beaten their opponents this season by seven plus points per game. They face off in week sevens. When two teams winning by seven plus points per game on the year meet this late in the season, the favorite covers only 40% of the time in the past twenty years. Jeez. I know. We bet Baltimore at two and a half. We already did it. Which sucks. I was gonna make this my assignment says playfield's still two and a half. Like, I loved I still love Baltimore. I love the value on Baltimore. I still love them at minus three. I make this line minus three and a half, and I just I just know if they go to minus three and a half, this will be the most public med team.”
BAL 38, DET 6 — Ravens beat Lions 38-6; Ravens margin +32 vs -2.5 line, covers (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“it's a big number for the Seahawks team here, but I gotta take some chalk, and this is this is one of the teams I'm gonna take here for the chalk. I'll take seahawks minus eight at home.”
SEA 20, ARI 10 — Seahawks beat Cardinals 20-10; Seahawks margin +10 vs -8 line, covers (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“First comment. This is a stinky line. Yeah. At that point, it was plus two. Like I said, now it's plus one. Huge. One of the biggest Pro Joe games of the week. All the money on Denver. Oh, the Denver Broncos. We had been saying all season, like, Russell Wilson wasn't the problem. Right? He wasn't getting better, but he wasn't the reason they were losing. Their defense was the reason. Then Russell Wilson was terrible against Kansas City. You had laid a total egg. Laid an egg. Sean Payton called a terrible game. We still almost covered, though. That's the craziest part. Dude, if you got 11, you at least like look. We love the under in that game. We had the Guy hit a 60 yard field goal. Prime time under. We got it. But, and look. At one point, the line was 11. So if you could find the 11, which we talked about, then, you at least push. But if Advance Joseph fixed the defense against the chiefs, we love the broncos here. Yeah. Gotta do it. Gotta gotta take the broncos.”
DEN 19, GB 17 — Broncos beat Packers 19-17; Broncos margin +2 vs +1 line, covers (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“as you're talking about it, I'm firing away on the Eagles minus one and a half wherever I can find it.”
PHI 31, MIA 17 — Eagles beat Dolphins 31-17 on Sunday night; Eagles margin +14 vs -1.5 line, covers (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“right when me and tag you off this call, I'm gonna throw some on the six and a half. That's just a good number for 49ers team”
MIN 22, SF 17 — Vikings beat 49ers 22-17 on Monday night; 49ers margin -5 vs -6.5 line, busts (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“For Monday night football, we have liked the chargers plus two and a half. Oh, we we've liked it since last week. Yeah. We'd probably feel better if we had it in the contest right now. But, you know, they're a two and a half. They're coming off the buy. We're really high on this offense, what Kellen Moore is doing with Justin Herbert. We think they can play through the Brandon Staley miscalculations and poor coaching and bad decision making. We don't like the Cowboys play calling. I don't think Mike McCarthy is very good at it. I think he's been overrated and probably shouldn't have gotten the Cowboys job to begin with. And we don't like their defense, which is now not just without Diggs, but Layton Vander Ash who's been really effective as a linebacker. So we're on the charters.”
LAC 17, DAL 20 — Cowboys beat Chargers 20-17 on Monday night; Chargers margin -3 vs +2.5 line, busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Is that how you went with Pittsburgh? Yeah. I went with Pittsburgh plus three.”
LAR 17, PIT 24 — Steelers beat Rams 24-17; Steelers margin +7 vs +3 line, covers (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“But I I did bet the Chargers, and I'm excited that I got it at six.”
KC 31, LAC 17 — Chiefs beat Chargers 31-17; Chargers margin -14 vs +6 line, busts (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“Alright. Do it then. Fire away. This feels like a foxhole to me. Yeah. No. This feels like a foxhole. You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team. I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy. Jets, plus seven is our foxhole. We're in the foxhole, baby.”
NYJ 20, PHI 14 — Jets beat Eagles 20-14; Jets margin +6 vs +7 line, covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Bet of the week. Cleveland browns plus seven. I'm”
CLE 19, SF 17 — Browns beat 49ers 19-17; Browns margin +2 vs +7 line, covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“I'll take the titans here at plus four and a half. Yeah. We're gonna be on the titans.”
TEN 16, BAL 24 — Ravens beat Titans 24-16 in London; Titans margin -8 vs +4.5 line, busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“It's at one and a half. I actually saw some ones. It's possible we get a better number. Could this be a late breaking contest entry? Yeah. It's, again, another, again, another game I just absolutely love this week. The saints, I believe they had the NFR record eight straight road games without giving up 20 or more points, going for number nine here against an offense that Chad said it. Like, Ritter played incredibly well last week. They had seven points at halftime. Like, this is just an offense that they just struggle a lot of things, and I put that on the quarterback here. So the this this bet here is really about regression. Like, I talked I talked last week. CJ is going to throw picks. He is going to turn the ball over. He's going to do stupid stuff. He had two two of the worst drops I've seen all year for the Atlanta defense. Like, literally, threw one to one defender right in the breadbasket. Like, the guy had his hands up, hit him in the face. Yeah. The next one, he it was one he put one downfield, and the guy should have picked, he didn't. So he he is putting the ball up to be turned over. Now here we have a saints team that they don't make those drops. I mean, you saw last week, the honey badger had that pick six on Mac. I think he's up to 30 picks now, Tyron Matthews. Like, these are these are guys that do catch the ball when it's thrown their way. And this saints team, we talked about this is our identity. Like, their identity is this defense. The defense and which I always believe in Derek Carr on the offense, it really is on the defense. Like, if they get stops, they've turned over CJ, this game will snowball. Like, it that's a rookie quarterback and a rookie head coach. These are the kind of games they should lose and have let down games. So it's weird that I've seen the number move down. Like Chad just said, I've seen I thought this would go up to two and a half, three. It's gone the other way. So that means money is coming on Houston here, but doesn't change my view of it. It's the same thing last week with the saints and the patriots. Like, people were like, aren't you worried that the saints number is moving against you guys so much? No. It's this is how it is. Like, pros on these coin flip games, pros will be on both sides. Like, it all depends on what your model makes this number. So to me, if I make this minus two and a half for the saints, I love the value on the saints. I'm getting now a point and a half of value on the saints. So it's another game that this is tough to take, Chad. Like, watching CJ's tape, this kid's incredible, especially that last drive last week, but the saints defense is so good. They should be putting this kid into fits. Like, they're different coverages. They're different schemes. They're gonna throw at them. I love this matchup so much for the saints defense.”
HOU 20, NO 13 — Texans beat Saints 20-13; Saints margin -7 vs -1.5 line, busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“I have a decent amount now in the bears. Hoping it gets back to three. That'd be great for me and Chad because maybe it'd be three and a half in the contest, but have no issue putting the two and a half in the contest as well.”
CHI 13, MIN 19 — Vikings won 19-13 at Chicago; Bears margin -6 vs +2.5 line, busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“New England has lost its last two games by a combined total of, like, 66 points. The worst two Bill Belichick losses ever have been the past two weeks. I've never been more convinced than right now is the time to take the time to take the New England Patriots. Well, you shouldn't you shouldn't be as confident. I'm a tell you that much. Mac Jones in his last 11 starts as a dog, own 11 ATS, Chad. Oh my god. It's terrible. Ducky likes to say it's catching a falling knife. Are we getting the are we getting the Patriots at the absolute bottom of the market? And my my take on this is a massive coaching advantage. Right? Like, there's not even a question. The Raiders are prone to turning the ball over, which plays to the strength of the Patriots. The Patriots, they've actually played really hard teams and really good defenses, but then there's the trends, right, from Evan Abrams. Credit Evan Abrams. Thank you. Teams who scored three points or less the previous week, 60% against the spread the past twenty years the following week. So that's the Patriots. Teams to lose by 20 points or more the previous week, facing a team that didn't, 60% against the spread the past twenty weeks. Like, there's a lot of evidence here to back the patriots. When when a team has been its ugliest, I wish the number was higher. I'm hoping it'll be three and a half in the contest. We bet it at three and a half,”
LV 21, NE 17 — Raiders beat Patriots 21-17; Patriots margin -4 vs +3.5 line, busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Moneyline, underdog, round robin. Tampa, Washington, Chicago, Indy, New York, Jets.”
TB 6-DET 20; WSH 24-ATL 16; CHI 13-MIN 19; IND 20-JAX 37; NYJ 20-PHI 14 — Round robin legs per ESPN Week 6 scoreboard: Buccaneers ML lost (Lions 20, Bucs 6); Commanders ML won (Commanders 24, Falcons 16); Bears ML lost (Vikings 19, Bears 13); Colts ML lost (Jaguars 37, Colts 20); Jets ML won (Jets 20, Eagles 14) — parlay busts on the losing legs.
“I bet bears plus three, you and I haven't even discussed this yet. It's now down to two and a half.”
CHI 13, MIN 19 — Vikings won 19-13 at Chicago; Bears margin -6 vs +3 line, busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“I'll take minus two Minnesota against a Bears team that don't know how they can handle winning, Chad.”
CHI 13, MIN 19 — Vikings won 19-13 at Chicago; Vikings margin +6 vs -2 line, covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Indianapolis is bidding visiting Jacksonville. Anthony Richardson will not be playing. We like this one. We grabbed it at five and a half. It started moving when we were on the show. Money and tickets all on the colts, and that was even before the Richardson news. To me, it just feels like way too much inflation on the Jags after beating Buffalo who honestly could barely feel the defense and still almost won the game. Yeah. It's really tough. It feels like such an inflated number. I believe I think it was a stat last week. Like, a team that comes back from London and doesn't take the buy, apparently, all their games are super close. And we had that with Atlanta last week. Like, the game really did come down Yeah. Until the last snap. So I'm right there with you, Chad. We're getting a big number. Another team that's a real public dog, but, you know, me and Chad, we'd we'd like this number. So it sucks that it moves so much, but we're still getting a four and a half, which is such a key number. Of course. I'm I'm gonna bet that. Already had bet it. Like Chad said, bet the five and a half, bet five yesterday. I'll bet the four and a half again today.”
JAX 37, IND 20 — Jaguars beat Colts 37-20; Colts margin -17 vs +4.5 line, busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“money on Seattle. I grabbed Seattle plus three.”
CIN 17, SEA 13 — Bengals beat Seahawks 17-13; Seahawks margin -4 vs +3 line, busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Exact decision, Tampa Bay, Buccaneers, I'll say a plus three.”
TB 6, DET 20 — Lions beat Buccaneers 20-6; Buccaneers margin -14 vs +3 line, busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Simon Says if you can find it, go grab the two and a half on this chargers team right now plus two and a half.”
LAC 17, DAL 20 — Cowboys beat Chargers 20-17 on Monday night; Chargers margin -3 vs +2.5 line, busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“you and I are overloaded on San Francisco minus three and a half. It's the remaining bet”
SF 42, DAL 10 — 49ers beat Cowboys 42-10, covering -3.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Yeah. Again, we talked a little bit about two and a half. They're plus two and a half on Tuesday. The lines are running by the time we keep to the show Thursday, and it was announced Jimmy would be the starter. Got two and a half. I think they already got to minus two and half. Now it's settled at minus two. I'm with Chad. Like, I I still probably would bet on the Raiders. I probably still will. But totally get it if you don't like this number. You just wanna skip it. I just it's hard for me to back level on the road against a Raiders team that's just desperate here for a win. So I'll I'll I'll take the take the home favorite here at minus two.”
LV 17, GB 13 — Raiders beat Packers 17-13 on Monday Night Football, covering -2 (ESPN scoreboard).
“First game I looked at, titans plus four and a half hosting the ravens. It it's it stinks, but I'll take it. Because I I do think it's gonna drop, but first glance, I'm just like, why and why in the world is this so high? Like, there should be three, three and a half at most. It's four and a So I'll take the value. And if we're me and Chad to walk into a trap, we'll buy out of it, but I I gotta take that early value in Tennessee. But why do we think it would be that right now? I don't know. It's a weird line. I do not get it because I I I don't I don't know the all the respect given to this Ravens team. Yeah, Tennessee played bad, but that's kinda how divisional games go. Right? And that's why I feel the same with the Ravens where it's like, maybe this is we're reacting to the Ravens, and they're not as bad as we perceive right now. Or, is Tennessee not as good as we perceive, but four and a half? That's that's a huge number for this Ravens team to be catching. So I'll I'll walk into it right now with you, Chad. I'll grab the four and a half. Well, I'm seeing it drop a little bit. So what do we think about what do we think of it at four? Yes. Still grabbing. Like, to me, it should be three. Like, that's that make that number makes sense here. So it's I'm happy it's dropping because at least the smart money is coming on Tennessee. But, like Right. What what a weird number to hang by this sports book. It's so strange. I don't get it. I totally don't get it. Grab it. Grab it. But, yeah, I'm hitting it right now.”
BAL 24, TEN 16 — Ravens beat Titans 24-16; Titans lost by 8, failing to cover +4 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Alright. What about indie this week? And if I skip a game if I get a game that, like, you haven't thought about yet, please interrupt me. No. I grabbed indie at five. It's it's running. It's already four and a half, four at some books. So it's just another number I'm gonna grab now. Let the week play out, see who the quarterback is. And if it moves against me and Chad, maybe we'll get out. But I'll just take the early value here on the Colts team that, you know, Chad said it. Like, there's there's a little bit of magic to this team. They just play really hard. They're really well coached. I don't really know if the Jaguars are good or they've just been in England for two weeks. Like, this is just a really strange team that I'm not gonna overreact to them beating the Bills today because a lot goes into that. The Bills just got out slow. Kinda saw, you know, Josh Allen get it together by the second half, but it was just too late. So, yeah, grab the grab the four and a half another game. We'll just grab it now. If we need to, we'll buy out of the position. But this this is one of first bets I made before we jumped on at five.”
JAX 37, IND 20 — Jaguars beat Colts 37-20; Colts lost by 17, failing to cover +4.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“The only other bet I made so far is Tampa Bay Bucks. They're plus three right now against the lines.”
DET 20, TB 6 — Lions beat Buccaneers 20-6; Buccaneers lost by 14, failing to cover +3 (ESPN scoreboard).
“better than week. Pittsburgh steelers plus four at home against the Baltimore Ravens. I wonder what Mike Tomlin is gonna say about that. You know, he didn't urinate down his leg, man. That's a great place to begin. Well, this takes some to make this bet here. It's like you're you're betting a team that you're right. They don't have it feels like the same type of dogs on defense that we're used to. Normally, I would be like, you know what? Let's just wait and see, but you were spot on giving out all these stats. And these are the reasons you just don't miss on these numbers where we're just playing the long term game with a lot of these bets we're making. Never in my life have I probably ever missed this missed this opportunity to take a Tomlin team at home in a divisional game after they lost by more than 20 points. It's too good of a number to pass on. Man, an opportunity to get a quality dude”
PIT 17, BAL 10 — Steelers beat Ravens 17-10, covering +4 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Tennessee at Indy. The only difference is that the Tennessee number did move the way we thought Atlanta might move. They opened it at about one and a half or two. We bet it at one and a half. Indy now a two point underdog.”
IND 23, TEN 16 — Colts beat Titans 23-16, covering +1.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“For the record, speaking of closing line value against the opening line, I bet the saints at plus one and a half. I put it in the app.”
NO 34, NE 0 — Saints beat Patriots 34-0, covering +1.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“have an advantage. I think they have an advantage at home. We still like them at minus two. Yeah. And it's also people are gonna start picking up themes here where it's like, we like riding the hot teams, and then we try to jump off. We try to sell high. It's like stock. So we were all over Houston last week. Now we're fading them. All over the bills last week, a lot of pros now are going on the Jaguars up to the following week. It's like, you're trying to not just time the market, but you're trying to sell low on these teams. And if you're on Houston and you didn't get the three and a half, Chad's talking about closing numbers, you're you're buying high in a team at a bad number now. And my hope was that this was gonna be like the colts game where this is gonna flip, and Atlanta would be a home dog. That would have been amazing. Sadly, the pros couldn't chill, and they had to come in and buy the number of one and a half and one. And now, like Chad said, it's up to two, one and a half still. So, nothing's changed for me here. Like, CJ has been incredible. He's gonna get he's gonna get caught. He's gonna hit a wall. Eventually, the book will be out on him. That's just how it is. Teams are gonna find your weaknesses, and they attack it. They build game plans around it. Me and Chad have talked all the time. There's a reason these rookies fall off as the season goes along. It's a very long season. They're getting more and more tape on you. So whatever he likes to do, the defense is gonna start counteracting that. And Atlanta, it's not so much that me and Chad are just betting them because of their running style and offense. It's more about Houston doesn't have any of the guys to stop it. Like, you go through their defense, they are thin, especially against the run and run stopper. So that's why, like, Chad was right on the same page with me where he broke down those two guys. And it's like, that's why I like Atlanta here. It's not that I have zero faith in the Ritter. He can still make some of the throws. But if we're ever gonna be in a game where I know it's gonna be, like, a shootout like, say this game was in Houston, probably would be on Houston. Right? That's the you're getting a good number for them. The fact that it's CJ on the road in this kind of environment after you know, they had this big win in Jacksonville. He made some throws, but that wasn't all him. That Pittsburgh game, that was really a great game by him. So that's why it's like the public, everyone now seeing that. They're all over this with CJ, where pros like us are like, yes. This gets talented, but this number should be three. Like, this should be three or above. The fact we're getting under a field goal here with this Atlanta team, it's another game where it just feels like we have to have it in the contest.”
ATL 21, HOU 19 — Falcons beat Texans 21-19, a 2-point margin that exactly pushes the -2 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“but there's gonna be times where he needs to make the throws. Hopefully, that changes as the season goes along. But, again, there's nothing for me to see in the 40 that can just get me on Dallas. If this was four and a half, I honestly would start thinking Dallas there because I we talked about, like, this number at four kinda made sense. But at three and a half, you're getting value on the 40 niners. So I'm right there with Chad. I've just been betting this number all week. It's gonna be my most public bet of the week. All the public is just coming heavy on this 40.”
SF 42, DAL 10 — 49ers beat Cowboys 42-10, covering -3.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Here's a recap. Our foxhole is Indy plus two and a half. We are alone on that one. Big balls is Pittsburgh plus four. Exact decision from earlier this week was New Orleans plus one and a half. Look, folks. That line moved. It's now New Orleans is a favorite minus one. Simon Says is Atlanta minus two. A round robin. Moneyline, round robin, underdog parlay. Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, the rams, Minnesota, Arizona.”
Graded as a straight 5-leg moneyline parlay: Steelers ML won (17-10) and Colts ML won (23-16), but Rams ML lost (Eagles won 23-14), Vikings ML lost (Chiefs won 27-20), and Cardinals ML lost (Bengals won 34-20) — not every leg won, so the parlay busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“the exact decision is New Orleans plus one and a half.”
NO 34, NE 0 — Saints beat Patriots 34-0, easily covering +1.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Simon Says is Atlanta minus one and a half.”
ATL 21, HOU 19 — Falcons beat Texans 21-19, covering -1.5 by half a point (ESPN scoreboard).
“biggest game of the week, Cincinnati Football, Dallas and San Francisco, niners minus three and a half. This was an immediate bet on our Sunday night pot. I can tell you of all the bets I've made so far,”
SF 42, DAL 10 — 49ers beat Cowboys 42-10, covering -3.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“I feel like we gotta take the Raiders here. Yeah. I'll I'll save my big breakdown for Thursday show on this one. Yeah. Raiders, I love, love, love them this week. Love them in this spot. Hoping this gets the three. Great, great buy low opportunity. Even on Sunday night, I saw this number, I was like, well, probably gonna end up on the Raiders again this week. So I'm grabbing the two and a half now.”
LV 17, GB 13 — Raiders beat Packers 17-13 on Monday Night Football, covering +2.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“No. No. I bet the Colts at minus one and a half. Oh, so money's coming on the Titans?”
IND 23, TEN 16 — Colts beat Titans 23-16, covering -1.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Our big balls is the Jets, nine and a half. We'll find out soon enough.”
KC 23, NYJ 20 — Chiefs beat Jets 23-20; Jets lost by 3, covering the +9.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Simon, also tell people what player prop you're thinking about. Took Mahomes underpassing prop. So I think it was two seventy two. I mean, we need it for our bet. If he's throwing over 300 yards, probably not the best spot for us with our Jets bet. And Andy Reid kinda kinda leaked a little bit that they wanna use a run more, take less pressure off Mahomes, take have him take less hits. In this matchup, the Jets, they they kinda want you to drop back and pass. Right? They have the really good pass rushers, so I think Andy's gonna attack on the run. So yeah. It it might have gone up, but it was two seventy two and a half, this morning when I gave out his underpassing.”
Patrick Mahomes went 18/30 for 203 passing yards (1 TD, 2 INT) in the Chiefs' 23-20 win over the Jets, well under 272.5 (ESPN box score). (Patrick Mahomes: 18/30, 203 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT)
“It's the game of the week. Forty niners cowboys. I'm I'm grabbing the minus three and a half right now. Minus three if you can find it on this forty niners team. It's just a great number, a great spot.”
SF 42, DAL 10 — 49ers beat Cowboys 42-10, covering the -3.5 spread by 28.5 points (ESPN scoreboard).
“Yeah. I got end up kinda getting bullied and dicking the Seahawks. A really sharp group came in on them. They've moved the number. I took it late. I think I think I'm minus one. Now it's up to minus one and a half.”
SEA 24, NYG 3 — Seahawks beat Giants 24-3 on Monday Night Football, covering -1 by 20 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Las Vegas raiders at chargers plus six on Tuesday. I bet it at six. It's now down to five and a half. Wise guys coming in on the raiders. I still like the charger the raiders in this spot.”
17-24 — Los Angeles Chargers beat Las Vegas Raiders 24-17; Raiders +5.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“to recap, our foxhole, Las Vegas plus five and a half.”
17-24 — Los Angeles Chargers beat Las Vegas Raiders 24-17; Raiders +5.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“Big balls, bet of the week. We we gotta take the jets. Kansas City at the New York jets. It's at nine and a half. I believe it will hit 10 on Sunday.”
23-20 — Kansas City Chiefs beat New York Jets 23-20; Jets +9.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I'm telling you people, the the group that's coming in heavy on this Jets team, highly respected, smart guys, back to smart money here. Hopefully, we can get to 10 again. Like, me and you hit the 10, I've grabbed some nine and a half just in case it does drop drop even more in a few books, but I'm with you. I do think I'll get back to 10.”
23-20 — Kansas City Chiefs beat New York Jets 23-20; Jets +9.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“If you listen to the show, you know the stat. No one is better straight up as a dog than Rabel in NFL history. So Yep. You you just gotta sprinkle some on the money line and take the two and a half. I believe Simon said, this will be one of our bets on Sunday. He said it on Tuesday. It was my exec decision. I still love it. The wise guys love it. All the tickets coming in on the Bengals, all the money coming in on the titans.”
3-27 — Tennessee Titans beat Cincinnati Bengals 27-3; Titans +2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“that Tennessee game I put is it weird? Is I put $50,000 on it, and it's weird to me. You know, the books call to negotiate, and I was like, listen. I'm not going any higher than two and a half.”
3-27 — Tennessee Titans beat Cincinnati Bengals 27-3; Titans +2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I'm gonna trust it, Chad. We're gonna have this one in the contest minus two and a half. Give me the bills.”
20-48 — Buffalo Bills beat Miami Dolphins 48-20; Bills -2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“it's one of the reasons we like the Bills at minus two and a half. It's why we bet Josh Allen at 10 to one as MVP because if they win this game, those odds are gonna be cut in half.”
20-48 — Buffalo Bills beat Miami Dolphins 48-20; Bills -2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“So I like Dak in this spot. I like Dak and Mike McCarthy fixing their resume issues. So I'm riding with the cowboys minus six and a half. If it's a seven, I'm not doing it.”
3-38 — Dallas Cowboys beat New England Patriots 38-3; Cowboys -6.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I bet Baltimore plus three, but I'm playing the number, and I'm playing sort of the history here that”
28-3 — Baltimore Ravens beat Cleveland Browns 28-3; Ravens +3 covers (ESPN box score).
“the like, that's why I bet the because there's there's some discrepancies here. Like, the Rams are plus one. I got them at plus one and a half last night.”
23-29 — Los Angeles Rams beat Indianapolis Colts 29-23 (OT); Rams +1.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Commanders flashed to eight and a half yesterday. I bet at eight and a half.”
31-34 — Philadelphia Eagles beat Washington Commanders 34-31 (OT); Commanders +8.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I like Tennessee better, so I'm going with Tennessee as my exact decision. I'm going with Tennessee plus two and a half.”
3-27 — Tennessee Titans beat Cincinnati Bengals 27-3; Titans +2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I've already bet this a bunch. This is going to be one of our bets on Sunday. Like, there's a lot of stupid things I did last week. This will not be one that I'll miss. Like, we're gonna have Tennessee in there. If it's at three, two and a half, three and a half, like, I'm hoping it gets to three and a half. But,”
3-27 — Tennessee Titans beat Cincinnati Bengals 27-3; Titans +2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“this year, and he's going against the best pass rush he's seen. I feel like the the Bills, if you can get the two and a half, get it now. Like, it's gonna move. I'm looking right now, and it's literally I'm watching the Action Network lines. I'm watching the lines in actionnetwork.com. It's moving, so you gotta fucking get it. Should I make it Simon Says then? Should we are we telling people they gotta grab it right now? Yeah. You gotta grab it. Make it a Simon Says. Says, Bills.”
20-48 — Buffalo Bills beat Miami Dolphins 48-20; Bills -2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“So I bet this last night. I bet Buffalo minus two and a half because the the juice was moving in the in the direction of three.”
20-48 — Buffalo Bills beat Miami Dolphins 48-20; Bills -2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“You always take Green Bay at home as a dog in this spot. If you're scared of the number, there's a bunch of one and a halfs out there. Wong tees it up to seven and a half if you're a coward, but I'll take the one and a half. Like, this this was two and a half, and all the pros came and just slammed it down to one and a half. So a bunch of books are showing one now. I can just see it standing right around here. One, one and a half. I wish I could say it's not that big of a deal, one and a half, but me and Chad won a bunch of money on that saints one and a half. So, clearly, it matters. So that's why the the we always talk about getting the hook. Even on one and a half now, it matters. So, yeah, no brainer bet. Like, suck you can't put in the contest. I I love this number. Love green bay at home.”
34-20 — Detroit Lions beat Green Bay Packers 34-20; Packers +1.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“I I did wanna make this, Simon Says, but no one's gonna listen to me. This is even even I showed the people the results of them covering this number, I still don't think people would bet the bears team. That's how bad they've been. So, yeah, you you have to take the bears here. They're o and three ATS, o and three on the season. This is a great number. They're a home dog against a horrible team that yes. Denver's probably going to win in a last second field goal, but we're getting the hook. We take the three and a half here.”
31-28 — Denver Broncos beat Chicago Bears 31-28; Bears +3.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Carolina is a three and a half point underdog. Love it. Right now oh god. Because remember, don't know how we ended up with Carolina and Eddie Dalton in our contest either. Love it. Last week, love them again this week. It's just Eddie Dalton's eyes, Brad is Bryce Young, and you saw last week that offense put up a lot of points on the road in Seattle. Now they're playing against a horrible Vikings defense at home. Give me give me the three and a half every time. Like, who who the hell I how does the public come in on Kirk? I don't I can't believe this. They're coming in so heavy on Kirk. I get it. Carolina's horrible, but, man, you're you're you're putting a lot on Kirk. I don't know. That's just crazy. It's minus three and a half. So maybe I'm stepping in it, but I I want this so bad to be one of our five just because people are gonna hate it. But three and a half, give it to me every time. I love this number. Bet it bet it all day yesterday. Bet it all today.”
21-13 — Minnesota Vikings beat Carolina Panthers 21-13; Panthers +3.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“Alright. Kansas City at the Jets. It's nine and a half. Joe Namath hates Zach Wilson. This is the defense that is getting wasted. I think Kansas City is if you can say Kansas City is sneaky, like, I think there's some I think their defense is better than it's been in years. Chris Jones is just devastating quarterbacks right now. What are we doing here? Waiting for a 10? Yeah. I've seen there's a book right now. There's a 10. Like, I I I sent a runner to go about it as we're doing this show. So, yeah, I'm gonna grab the 10. We'll be on the jets.”
23-20 — Kansas City Chiefs beat New York Jets 23-20; Jets +10 covers (ESPN box score).
“What are we doing here? Waiting for a 10? Yeah. I've seen there's a book right now. There's a 10. Like, I I I sent a runner to go about it as we're doing this show. So, yeah, I'm gonna grab the 10. We'll be on the jets. I don't know what to tell you, people. Like, this sucks. This is, like, the one of the tougher bets I'll have to make this year”
23-20 — Kansas City Chiefs beat New York Jets 23-20; Jets +10 covers (ESPN box score).
“Houston is a three point dog at home against the Steelers. I don't know if we'll probably wanna wait and see what happens with the game tonight. But I'm already gonna grab it.”
6-30 — Houston Texans beat Pittsburgh Steelers 30-6; Texans +3 covers (ESPN box score).
“If people are looking for what favorites I have bet so far, I took the rams. They were minus one against this cold steam.”
23-29 — Los Angeles Rams beat Indianapolis Colts 29-23 (OT); Rams -1 covers (ESPN box score).
“And another favorite I took a small bet on was the saints. The saints are minus three right now. Weird number. I don't know how they can hang that without knowing who the quarterback is. So I think I feel like they know something more than I do. So I'm just gonna throw a little on the saints minus three just in case Tampa, if they do get blown out by this eagles team, I could see this number getting up to four. So”
26-9 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat New Orleans Saints 26-9; Saints -3 busts (ESPN box score).
“in the NFL. I feel like the Patriots have gotten unlucky in a couple games. In the luck rankings, they are the most unlucky team after two weeks. We're playing the percentages from a luck rankings point of view, and I trust that as much as anything. Like, that has become sort of, for me, a huge factor when thinking about these games. The percentage of coverage for a luck for a team that has been unlucky in this position is north of 60%. So I'm not uncomfortable with this at all. I've marked it down past minus two and a half as a near mortal lock”
15-10 — New England Patriots beat New York Jets 15-10; Patriots -2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Yeah. I don't hate that. I don't hate that at all. Another game. But right now, what would you say? I I would say, like, I got the Texans. I'm comfortable putting in the five. Yeah. I just I just wanna see what the offensive line is. Like, I I'm not putting them in if they still have two starters out on that offensive line. Like, that's it's it's too much to ask of a rookie quarterback with no offensive lineman. Alright. The Pats, they touched three. Now it's down to two and a half, which is interesting to me. I got it at two and a half. We talked about it. We love Bill Belichick in this spot.”
15-10 — New England Patriots beat New York Jets 15-10; Patriots -2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Our Big Balls bed of the week. Cleveland Browns minus three and a half right now. I prefer to wait until it gets to three, but I guess we're going with it.”
3-27 — Cleveland Browns beat Tennessee Titans 27-3; Browns -3.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I'm kinda just thinking I gotta take I gotta basically balance it out and bet the browns because it's a pretty good spot for them. And this is the big balls bet of the week. No way. Doesn't this take some balls here, Jed, taking this browns team? It takes massive balls. I actually thought we were gonna go with the Colts against the Ravens. That's fair. But, no, this this one this one takes some balls. Like, of all the bets, all the pros, everyone's saying to me, it's making me feel sick. Every time I bet it at three, I still felt sick. Now it's minus three and a half, and it's like, I still gotta bet this. This is just a sick, sick bet.”
3-27 — Cleveland Browns beat Tennessee Titans 27-3; Browns -3.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Alright. Last week, we talked about the box plus five and a half. It was your Simon Says. It's down to four and a half. You mentioned it in sharp calls. Do you still like it at four and a half? Is it a contest play at four and a half? Yeah. Still like it. Still like it at four and a half. It it's definitely, though, one of the games where, you know, it it could go wrong for us pretty quick, Chad, if if Baker turns back into a pumpkin. That that that's the fear with taking this Bucks number here, but”
11-25 — Philadelphia Eagles beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25-11; Buccaneers +4.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“Full disclosure, I missed the eight and a half. I still bettered at seven and a half because I know eight is becoming the key number, but I just decided I like the Texans at anything more than a touchdown in this game.”
37-17 — Houston Texans beat Jacksonville Jaguars 37-17; Texans +7.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I stupidly did not bet the Raiders a plus one and a half. I have now bet them a two and a half.”
23-18 — Pittsburgh Steelers beat Las Vegas Raiders 23-18; Raiders -2.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“I think this is one of the highest highest totals of the week, 54. I threw a lid on the over, and that was really it for me on this game, Chad.”
28-24 — Los Angeles Chargers beat Minnesota Vikings 28-24, combined 52; Over 54 busts (ESPN box score).
“I got the Texans a plus nine and a half the other day. It's still settling around nine, eight and a half.”
37-17 — Houston Texans beat Jacksonville Jaguars 37-17; Texans +9.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“right right there with you, Chad, where it's like, we wanted to be on the rams. Now we're gonna end up probably gonna beat them on the bangles. Let me summarize here. Exact decision. Denver broncos plus seven. Simon Says, bucks plus five and a half. Games we've circled that we're feeling, you know, fairly confident that we'll talk about again on Thursday that our contest leans”
MIA 70, DEN 20 — Dolphins routed the Broncos 70-20; Denver +7 lost by 50 (ESPN box score).
“Yeah. That sucks. So this is my Simon Says bet. I I wanted it at 6, the bucks. It's at 5 and a half. Damn it. So, yeah, I I still like it at 5 and a half. I was hoping to get to six. This this Bucks team, if the Eagles were fully healthy, I'd make this number seven. The Eagles are banged up in the secondary. We might be without our number one, our number two corner, and our number three corner going up against Gawain and Mike Evans. Like, this is a huge deal to this Bucks team in that offense. So,”
PHI 25, TB 11 — Eagles beat the Buccaneers 25-11 on Monday night; Tampa Bay +5.5 lost by 14 (ESPN box score).
“I love this game all last week. I bet Buffalo minus six on Sunday, the look ahead line before any of the games were played.”
BUF 37, WSH 3 — Bills routed the Commanders 37-3; Buffalo covered -6 by a 34-point margin (ESPN box score).
“oh, no. I was gonna say this is one of the most bet games, but it's there's a lot of other games that are more bet. So on Sunday night, we talked about the Raiders at plus one and a half. The number has now moved to Raiders minus one and a half. The Raiders do fall into that stat. Now teams are short favorite playing their first home game in week three that you'd want to fade. How do you feel about the Raiders right now as favorites at one and a half against the Steelers? Yeah. We joke all the time about the Spider Man meme and this the Spider Man meme. These are the exact same teams going against each other. There's there's literally nothing different other than Jimmy has the experience, and I can kinda count on Jimmy to make the throws when I need him to. So, yeah, great scenario last week. We we this is why I wanna take the Raiders. Like, they got blown out. The public was going to like Pittsburgh, especially if Pittsburgh won, but the pros came and hammered this number. So even though Pittsburgh won, no one's buying it. Like, the numbers moved from plus one and a half on the Raiders down to minus one and a half. I still like the Raiders. So I I don't hate taking them as a favorite here. I don't hate taking that number. You know, the the Pittsburgh, what an amazing win, but can you rely on your defense to get 14 points every week for you to cover and win these games? I don't think so, especially against this Raider team that they played so bad against the Bills. You know that they're gonna get right this week. So, yeah, looking at this, if if it all comes out that Jimmy is fully healthy, because I don't know if he's injured because he just played so bad in that game, love him to get right, and Josh Jacobs who had one of the worst games I've ever seen by running back last week against the Bills. Great bounce back spot against Pittsburgh who just cannot stop the run. Pittsburgh's run defense is atrocious. So, yeah, love Vegas. Love it at this number.”
PIT 23, LV 18 — Steelers beat the Raiders 23-18; Las Vegas -1.5 lost outright (ESPN box score).
“Right now, the Buffalo Bills are nine and a half point favorites against the Raiders. Stuckey, the in Action Network podcast with Rayburn on Thursday in the Sunday six pack, maybe my favorite episode of a podcast we do, still likes the Bills at nine and a half. Yeah. I I make I told you I made the line 10. So anything under 10, I thought you're getting good value on the Bills. And we're just betting on Josh Allen in a bounce back spot again. Another team that we think there'll be a playoff team, Chad. We expect the Bills to bounce back.”
BUF 38, LV 10 — Bills routed the Raiders 38-10; Buffalo covered -9.5 by a 28-point margin (ESPN box score).
“Evan can back me up here. But Mike Vrabel as a dog, I'm checking my notes, something like what is it? I have it in front of me. Twenty four nine and one in his career when the spread is three or higher. He's twenty four fifteen and one overall against the spread during his career as an underdog. I don't know why this isn't an automatic play for us. Probably will be. No. I'm coming I'm coming around at Tennessee. My I just it's hard for me if this game turns into a shootout that Tannehill can keep up with Herbert. And that's what I'm worried this will turn into because Tennessee has the best run one of the best run defense in the football, but they have one of the worst passing defenses in all football. And Derek Carr just threw for 300 yards on them last week in his first game as a saint. So, yeah, it's a it's a little scary, Chad. But, yeah, if we're going by what all the pros wanna do and what the book says, we're supposed to take Tennessee here. I think my issue is I just have”
TEN 27, LAC 24 — Titans beat the Chargers 27-24 in overtime, winning outright and covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“Seattle's a four and a half point dog at bet three six five. But I'm still putting it in right now. Like, it's it's amazing. I still like that number for them. Yep. Right now, our our the three games that I think we're feeling really good about, Bill's nine and a half, Tennessee plus three, Seattle plus four and a half. I know you're on the fence about Seattle. I don't know what your problem is there, but whatever.”
SEA 37, DET 31 — Seahawks beat the Lions 37-31; Seattle covered +4.5 by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“Falcons, plus one and a half. The Millman loves it. The wise guys love it. It's down to one. This was my exact decision on Tuesday. Why is Atlanta a home dog against Green Bay?”
ATL 25, GB 24 — Falcons beat the Packers 25-24; Atlanta covered +1.5 by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“I bet New England plus three yesterday as soon as it hit the three.”
MIA 24, NE 17 — Dolphins beat the Patriots 24-17 on Sunday night; New England +3 lost by 7 (ESPN box score).
“it's pretty surprising that the the pros did come in on the rams. Like, I just thought they'd be scared off by this 49ers team, but that's just the player. You're taking a home divisional dog. Eight and a half points. There's no way there's no way we couldn't take this number. So, it sucks. It moves so much because we can't take a contest, which I was hoping for. And I was gonna make my big balls better than week, but we're getting a we're getting a bad number here. So that that's why I'm not gonna make it. Listen. We haven't we haven't done a foxhole, and we haven't done a big balls.”
SF 30, LAR 23 — 49ers beat the Rams 30-23; Los Angeles covered +8.5 by a 7-point loss margin (ESPN box score).
“Moneyline, underdog, round robin, Tennessee. No brainer. It sucks Atlanta flip because that would have been a nice one. Yeah. I was just gonna say. Gotta go seahawks. That's a great number. That's such a big number. Houston's kinda cheating because it's only plus one. But I was gonna say Houston, but it felt a little bit weak. Yeah. Let's go big on this one then. Let's go jets too. So we got jets. Why would you do that? We got jets, seahawks Tennessee. Tennessee. Patriots. I like that a lot. And there's a couple I could put here in the five spot that are, like, small small dogs. I'm trying to find I got, like, 8,000 tabs open here. So hold on. I mean, it could be fun going jaguars, pull up the biggest upside. I just I just can't see my humps losing back to back. No. We're not I don't wanna jinx that in any way. You wanna go I can't do it. I can't I can't believe the panthers might win. It's not a terrible spot. No. You know what? Let's go commanders. Hold on. Let me give one last review here. Because I we can't go rams even though I really wanna believe in it. Dude, why wouldn't we do the ravens? Yeah. Yeah. Ravens. Ravens. She's like because I have minus three, so now I'm the cheer cheer for the ravens money line too. Goddamn it. But I guess that is the that is for the fans of the show. Yeah. That's that's probably best one. Fans.”
Round robin parlay busts: the Jets lost 10-30 to the Cowboys and the Patriots lost 17-24 to the Dolphins, while the Titans (27-24 OT), Seahawks (37-31), and Ravens (27-24) all won straight up (ESPN box scores). (Titans 27-24 (W, OT); Seahawks 37-31 (W); Jets 10-30 (L); Patriots 17-24 (L); Ravens 27-24 (W))
“We are taking the Kansas City Chiefs this week. Yeah. And we talked about it. When it was two and a half on on Sunday night, we're saying that's a good number. Two and a half, three. Little did we know, you know, the ownership would finally wake up Monday morning, come to, and it'd like, okay. Let's just pay Chris Jones. Give him a one year deal. Get our guy back for that interior d line. And that's just a big deal of the identity of this team. So we bet it. I didn't put a lot on it. The hope is I take it again here at three with everyone else.”
KC 17, JAX 9 — Chiefs beat Jaguars 17-9 on the road; Kansas City covered -3 by an 8-point margin (ESPN box score).
“I love it. This is my Simon Says game. If you can grab the eight and a half, grab it right now. This is a no brainer game. The Jets have built their defense to stop one man. They didn't build the defense drafting to stop Tua or Mac Jones in that division. When they started building this and Joe Douglas came to this team, there was one guy he had his eye on, and that was Josh Allen. And they built this whole defense to stop Josh Allen. They have incredible speed on the outside, and corners were really big and strong and really hard to and tough in coverage. So horrible game by Josh. He tried doing too much, and they kinda had him in that scenario of he he obviously would never say he was seeing ghost, but that's what he was. The same guy picked him off three times, Chad. Like, that is an insane stat. This guy one of my favorite things ever, his bonus was tied to him getting three picks this year. So that guy has 250 k bonus for this season in week one. So easy easiest buy low of the week. I still have this number at 10 for Buffalo. So the fact that we're getting a point and a half now and they're moving through key numbers, I love I love this spot for the Bills. Such a great bounce back spot.”
BUF 38, LV 10 — Bills routed the Raiders 38-10; Buffalo covered -8.5 by a 28-point margin (ESPN box score).
“they might get a little luckier, the charge. I thought this number is gonna move more because you saw Austin Eckler popped up on the injury report, and he might miss this game. So I'm a little shocked, Chad, that it didn't drop. That's the only thing giving me hesitation right now. I thought the books would move this to two and a half to get some chargers money, but they're holding at minus three. So definitely a number we're gonna keep our eye on this upcoming week. I've already bet it. I mean, I'm gonna put a lot on the three.”
TEN 27, LAC 24 — Titans beat the Chargers 27-24 in overtime, winning outright and covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“Indianapolis on the road, one and a half point favorite at the Houston Texans. This is a tough one. And, like, I watched that Colts game. They really outplayed the Jags, and they should have won that game outright. Forget about covering. But that Texans defense was so freaking good. It's just a couple of adjustments from CJ Stroud, and I don't I don't know that the Colts are good enough to be favorites on the road, and this feels like a huge overreaction. Yeah. Another great Wong teaser line too. You can take Houston up right now to seven and a half, put him in a six point teaser. If you just wanna bet that these both these rookies are lost, just take the under. I mean, it's just there's a bunch of bets you can make out of this game and try to find value on. And, you know, I I look at this Houston team that they're probably being undervalued here. The public is going to like what they saw from the cold. Chad's nailing it. Like, they should've covered that number. If Minshew hadn't come in, they had a first in goal with their six six two fifty quarterback. I'm pretty sure they would have scored and covered that number. So, I think most people, instead of being burned on betting the colts last week, the pros will probably come back in on them, and the public would join them just because they looked like the better team. Houston did not that that offense did not look like they're really gonna be putting up points this year. And so for me and Chad, we gotta fade that notion and just be like, that's a really good Ravens defense. That was a rookie's first start on the road, a head coach's first start on the road. Now they're back home in this spot facing a rookie quarterback and a rookie head coach. We gotta take the dog. Like, this is one of these Houston ones. I don't feel great about it, Chad, but it's like, there's a couple games this week that's just like the Arizona game last week. Like, You gotta trust the number and and view a team being overrated. Just hold your nose and take this number. So, yeah, I'll have the under. I'll have Houston tees, and I'll take Houston straight in this number.”
IND 31, HOU 20 — Colts beat the Texans 31-20 on the road; Houston +1.5 lost by 11 (ESPN box score).
“I kept fumbling it all over it because I kept saying they were one and a half point favorites. You're like, no. They're dogs because I couldn't believe my eyes. Another game, great for a Wong teaser. It's one and a half. Take it up to seven and a half. It's just sometimes it's too easy. And this just feels like the same thing with Houston. Like, we're getting a home dog that anyone that watched that game finally came to the opinion that I had all off season, which is Ritter is not a starting quarterback in this league. This guy cannot put the ball downfield. But holy hell is that run blocking scheme incredible for this Atlanta team. So I kinda think we saw their identity for the whole season. Atlanta, they're gonna rely on their defense and running the ball. And one of Green Bay's biggest weaknesses is against the run. So we'll take Alger. We'll take Robinson in that amazing backfield, and we'll roll the dice here with a home dog. It's I I'm trying to make this one of our five. One of these two teams is definitely gonna make the playoffs from winning this game. Right? We see the stats. Teams that start two and o, they have a really high percentage of making the playoffs. So what team do you really believe in here, Chad, to make a playoff run? Is it is it Green Bay in that tough division, or is it Atlanta in this really soft division where they them and the saints look like, you know, they're gonna be the best. I know the bucc hype's crazy right now, but, oh, man, it's a hard one to swallow because we are banking on Jordan Love not being as good as he looked against the Bears. Because let's face it. Every Packers quarterback last thirty years has looked good against the Bears. But, man, there there's a couple times, Chad, where he just had zero pressure. So that's the thing here. We're gonna learn if Elena has some good pass rushers or is Bryce Young just complete dog shit last week. So because Green Bay's offensive line looked good. I mean, again, Chad already talked about the bears. Didn't really have any pass rushers coming into this season. So another one that's making it a little uneasy because Jordan Love could be this good in this offense. Like, we just don't know because that that game kinda got out of hand so quickly, that bears Green Bay game where that that defense just looked lost for the bears. That bears defense looked horrible, but it did it did put Jordan Love in a lot of really advantageous spots. Agree. And I do think that the falcon secondary I mean, everybody's secondary is better than the bears, but I'm telling you right now, I'm making an executive decision. A choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Now you have your orders. Execute them. Executive decision. Give me the Atlanta falcons. Give me Arthur Smith.”
ATL 25, GB 24 — Falcons beat the Packers 25-24; Atlanta covered +1.5 by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“Are you ready? Yeah. The Chicago bears, three point dogs visiting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Dude, I can tell you right now the bears are gonna be one of our five. I don't know about that, but, yeah, I do like the number. It's a good number. I'm with you on taking the three.”
TB 27, CHI 17 — Buccaneers beat the Bears 27-17; Chicago +3 lost by 10 (ESPN box score).
“We're betting the Rams. Yeah. No brainer. Home divisional dog, eight and a half.”
SF 30, LAR 23 — 49ers beat the Rams 30-23; Los Angeles covered +8.5 by a 7-point loss margin (ESPN box score).
“But feels like a good number. Like, this this Cleveland team, you can say what you want about Watson last week. He made the plays that Joe Burrow couldn't. Like, he was making the same he was throwing the same weather that Joe Burrow was dealing with, and he was making the throws when he had to. So, I'm excited to really kinda see what we got here from Watson. Because this is another big game of they win this, Chad, They're in the driver's seat of winning this division and making the playoffs. And this is we've talked to Nazi about the Browns team. This is the year. Like, next year, the Watson contract kicks in. So this is really it for this Browns team. And, you know, great teams in week two, they kind of upset and shocked the world. And this would be one of those like, this I don't know if this would shock the world, but this would shock me, Cleveland winning this game. So I I gotta take the number minus two and a half.”
PIT 26, CLE 22 — Steelers beat the Browns 26-22 on Monday night; Cleveland -2.5 lost outright (ESPN box score).
“please tell me right now, have you already bet the Tennessee titans as three point dogs Yeah. Against the Los Angeles chargers? That is a coaching mismatch. Yeah. It's already moved to two and a half in a lot of books. So if you do want the three, I I would grab that now because I do see a drop in a two and a half.”
LAC 24-TEN 27 — Titans beat Chargers 27-24 (OT) on Sept 18, 2023 (MNF, kicked off Sept 17); Titans +3 covers as an outright winner (ESPN Week 2 scoreboard).
“Give me the seahawks, five and a half traveling to Detroit to face this Detroit team after”
SEA 37-DET 31 — Seahawks beat Lions 37-31 (OT) on Sept 17, 2023; Seahawks +5.5 covers as an outright winner (ESPN Week 2 scoreboard).
“I'm all in on the chargers versus eagles Super Bowl, which you can get right now at bet three six five at 50 to one.”
Super Bowl LVIII was played between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs (Chiefs won 25-22 in OT); neither the Chargers nor the Eagles reached the Super Bowl, so the futures bet lost.
“It's a great opportunity for the Browns in a week in which the Bengals are going to be as overvalued as they are at any point in the season until they lose the first five games, and then we realize it's time to start betting the Bengals. Yeah. The Browns are in. That's fair. We have a home divisional dog that should be a pick, but we're catching two and a half free points because the Bengals were so good last year. We'll take this number every time. Again, won't be shocked come Sunday if this is one of the biggest public sides. It's just that they love the fact they're getting Joe Burr under a field goal. He is Joe Cool. So I totally get where the public's coming from. They just I feel like they don't see they're getting a bad number here. You'd be shocked, Chad, about how many how many pros I know staying away from this just because they're scared of Joe. So the it's the same thing. I mean, we didn't talk about it, but that's that Chiefs”
CIN 3-CLE 24 — Browns beat Bengals 24-3 on Sept 10, 2023; Browns +2.5 covers as an outright winner (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“I'm just gonna take the Chiefs money line. Like, why would I not take it? It's it's dropped in price, that's where the value is. There's a couple games on here that are big balls foxholes that we're gonna wanna put in, but not this next one. Because I think we can both agree, Fucking love the New England Patriots as home dogs against the Philadelphia Eagles at plus three and a half, and there's there's not much to me that we disagree on for this, and it's gonna be one that we wanna put into the contest. Yeah. Pretty easy or just an an untested young defensive starters on this Eagles team.”
NE 20-PHI 25 — Eagles beat Patriots 25-20 on Sept 10, 2023; Patriots +3.5 busts with a 5-point loss (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“Houston Texans plus 10.”
HOU 9-BAL 25 — Ravens beat Texans 25-9 on Sept 10, 2023; Texans +10 busts with a 16-point loss (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“talk about the steelers because I love the steelers. They were the exact decision. You complimented me in a backhanded way and said you liked it, but it was very much a public dog. The Niners traveling, Kyle Shanahan is not great as a road favorite. The public is is moving the value of the niners outside the range of where I think it should be. Nick Bosa resigned. We talked about it on Tuesday. I imagine he'll play. Oh, yeah. But that doesn't worry me because when TJ Watt is playing, he's such a difference maker for the not for the Steelers that I think you just got we gotta plan. Yeah. And I hate it, though, because Nick is he's the defensive player of the year. He's so damn good. And even if he only plays 10 snaps, he's gonna wreak havoc on all 10 of those snaps. He's just so dominant. So, yeah, I did love this number just because he was out. Like, that was a huge deal to me. I didn't think the bookmakers were making enough of an adjustment to this line. The fact that he's coming back, if you're a 49ers fan, you gotta be ecstatic, but nothing changed that nothing changed for me, Chad. Still think they should be closer to a pick. We're still getting two and a half. Most books still have it at two. We'll take that value. It's just I think we already talked enough about it where it's it's Brock on the road coming back from a major injury in his first start.”
SF 30-PIT 7 — 49ers beat Steelers 30-7 on Sept 10, 2023; Steelers +2.5 busts with a 23-point loss (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“The colts plus five and a half. We gotta love the colts. That's the foxhole,”
JAX 31-IND 21 — Jaguars beat Colts 31-21 on Sept 10, 2023; Colts +5.5 busts with a 10-point loss (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“Like, Washington's one of those teams where it's like, I'm I'm taking their money line. I'm throwing it with the chief's money line.”
ARI 16-WSH 20 — Commanders beat Cardinals 20-16 on Sept 10, 2023; Commanders moneyline wins (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“Oh, I'm just throwing some things out there. I'm just I'm making some ideas right now. Browns plus one twenty. Yeah. Definitely. Steelers plus one fifteen. I'm tempted by titans at plus one forty seven. I don't hate it. I had us but we were gonna take Cleveland. Yep. I had us taking Pittsburgh. We can't not do it just because so many pros love it, and we need a big dog here. So for us, for the big dog, I thought we'd throw the bucks in. Like, Okay. Just a completely outside shot that they they can come back and win that game. Because we could do the Colts. I just I think the Colts will cover that number. I just can't see a scenario with them win. Like, it's just so much would have to go wrong for the Jaguars for them to win. So, yeah, for my for my big dog, I feel better going to Bucks. I don't hate your if you wanna go to Tennessee, I'll put that one in, and then we'll finish it off. Would you rather do Giants or the Jets? I feel better about the Jets. Okay. I I was gonna say jets are patriots, so let's go with the jets. Yeah. Let's do the jets. Okay. So our money line round robin parlay will be, the New York jets, the Cleveland browns, the Pittsburgh steelers, the Tampa Bay Bucks, and the Tennessee Titans.”
Week 1 moneyline round robin: Jets beat Bills 22-16 (OT) win; Browns beat Bengals 24-3 win; Steelers lost to 49ers 7-30 loss; Buccaneers beat Vikings 20-17 win; Titans lost to Saints 15-16 loss. Two of five legs lost, so the parlay busts (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“I bet the lions plus six and a half on Saturday. While I was making college football bets, I saw it sitting there, and I'm like, why am I waiting?”
DET 21-KC 20 — Lions beat Chiefs 21-20 on Sept 7, 2023; Lions +6.5 covers easily as an outright winner (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“Alright. Well, look. We've already locked one in. We love the Browns plus two and a half.”
CIN 3-CLE 24 — Browns beat Bengals 24-3 on Sept 10, 2023; Browns +2.5 covers as an outright winner (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“but I will be betting the falcons at minus three and a half.”
CAR 10-ATL 24 — Falcons beat Panthers 24-10 on Sept 10, 2023; Falcons -3.5 covers with a 14-point margin (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“Yeah. I mean, just and then I'm looking at it right now. Candidate. This is a big balls candidate. I'm just saying it right now. Definitely. And, like, what you just talked about, I'm just looking at it right now. It's it is up to a lot of books at five and a half. So, another game that I was gonna make my Simon Says, but the way the money's coming in and the tickets, it it could get the six. So, the fear here, Chad, is what I talked about months ago is we're backing a rookie head coach and a rookie QB in week one. So the the fear is this coach doesn't know how to prepare right, and he doesn't have the team prepared right, and it's a bad spot to step in. But what makes me have to make this bet and Chad is the Jags are the team. I mean, people nonstop and talking about them all summer. So now we're in a spot to fade the team that has been hyped up all summer.”
JAX 31-IND 21 — Jaguars beat Colts 31-21 on Sept 10, 2023; Colts -5.5 busts, losing outright (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“of course, the executive decision has to be take the Pittsburgh steelers as home ducks. A choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Now you have your orders. Execute them. Executive decision. Yeah. It's it's a public dog, but we have to take it. Do we love it mainly because Nick Boas isn't out? No. But that is a big factor. The fact that he won't be in this game, we know that as good as you wanna make this defensive front for the 49ers, it all goes with Nick Bosa. Like, he's the one that's getting the double teams and fighting through that and still getting sacks. He's just a game wrecker. And you take that away, and you go on the other side and bring in TJ Watt fully healthy. Like, last year, he just wasn't healthy. Even when he came back, he said he was playing hurt. So I didn't even know that stat. The fact that he was eight and two, fighting through those injuries with this team ATS, it's it it is very public. There's there's two really public dogs this week. This is one of them. I'm with Chad. We loved it at plus three. We still love it at two and a half.”
SF 30-PIT 7 — 49ers beat Steelers 30-7 on Sept 10, 2023; Steelers +2.5 busts with a 23-point loss (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“this is one of these games I have to take Arizona in the seven.”
ARI 16-WSH 20 — Commanders beat Cardinals 20-16 on Sept 10, 2023; Cardinals +7 covers with a 4-point loss (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“Sign me up for the Houston Texans plus 10. Simon says Houston plus 10.”
HOU 9-BAL 25 — Ravens beat Texans 25-9 on Sept 10, 2023; Texans +10 busts with a 16-point loss (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“So plus four, yeah, gotta take the Patriots.”
NE 20-PHI 25 — Eagles beat Patriots 25-20 on Sept 10, 2023; Patriots +4 busts with a 5-point loss (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“we gotta take what I think is the better quarterback and the better coach at three and a half opening night at home in prime time.”
DAL 40-NYG 0 — Cowboys beat Giants 40-0 on Sept 10, 2023; Giants +3.5 busts with a 40-point loss (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“I went I went deep on that Justin Herbert to lead the league in total passing yards. I can't wait for that.”
Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards in the 2023 regular season with 4,624 yards; Justin Herbert finished 18th with 3,134 (ESPN 2023 passing leaders).
“And then in regards to Texas, is Texas back? We'll know week two when they go to Alabama, a team that they should have beat at home last year. Basically, it comes down to the does Quinn Uris take the next step in his passing development mainly with his downfield passing where he really struggled last year with his footwork. So then he put the time in in the off season, kid with all the talent to really improve there. But this Texas team, Steve Sarkisian has has finally built this team out to SEC caliber before they actually make the switch when you're talking the offensive line, which has been a problem in recent years at Texas. Now, Gargot's a top five unit. They have the depth, the defense now, and then obviously the skill position talent where they are just head and shoulders above the rest in the big 12. You know, Oklahoma's not where it once was. I think TCU takes a big step back. You know, Baylor d might be pretty bad. So, like, a lot of these other top teams, I think, are gonna take a step back, and this Texas team is just so complete. Last year was a disappointing year, they were so close and lost so many one possession games. I mean, this is a team that people have been talking about it as a national title contender if they don't lose to Bama by one in a game where Uriz got hurt. And then, you know, a couple weeks later, they lose to Texas Tech in overtime on a I think it was a Bijan Robinson fumble, which, like, never happens, in overtime. So they were so close. Team is even better this year, another year. Second year for Quinn Ewers. The ceiling is so high for this team. But even if they don't reach their full potential, I still think that they, you know, or maybe close to when it's all said and done, a a touchdown better than every other team in the conference. So around even money to win the big 12, I would bet that.”
Texas beat Oklahoma State 49-21 in the 2023 Big 12 Championship Game on Dec 2, 2023, winning the conference outright; Texas (+100) to win the Big 12 won.
“I saw Texas plus one fifty to win the big twelve. I immediately got in my car and drove to an adjacent state to throw some dimes down because that number was stupid.”
Texas beat Oklahoma State 49-21 in the 2023 Big 12 Championship Game on Dec 2, 2023, winning the conference outright; Texas (+150) to win the Big 12 won.
“Trevor Lawrence to lead the league in down passes 30 to one. Let me give you my reasoning.”
Trevor Lawrence threw 21 passing touchdowns in 2023; Dak Prescott led the NFL with 36 (ESPN player stats). (Lawrence 21 passing TDs (Prescott led NFL with 36))
“Jalen Carter, defensive rookie of the year, seven one, bet three six five, great odds. He's blowing up camp.”
Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) won the 2023 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award, not Jalen Carter (AP awards, via Wikipedia).
“Bills Niners, that's my matchup in the Super Bowl. Longish odds.”
27-24 — San Francisco reached Super Bowl LVIII, but Buffalo was eliminated in the divisional round by Kansas City 27-24, so Bills-Niners was not the Super Bowl matchup (ESPN/Wikipedia 2023-24 NFL playoffs).
“I do love Bijan Robinson who is about 11 to one to lead the league in rushing because I honestly feel like Arthur Smith might let him carry the ball 2,000 times.”
Bijan Robinson ran for 976 yards in 2023; Christian McCaffrey led the NFL with 1,459 (ESPN rushing leaders). (Robinson 976 rush yards (McCaffrey led NFL with 1,459))
“I'm all in on the saints, Chad. Divisional odds, to me, it's it's the best number of all the teams where they're in a division where it's all these young teams that are just kinda thrown together at this point.”
Tampa Bay (9-8) won the NFC South on a tiebreaker over New Orleans (also 9-8); the Saints did not win the division (ESPN standings).
“this is a new one for me. And I can't say the name of the book, but it's the only book that has Pittsburgh 60 to one Super Bowl futures. And it's about Kenny taking that near two step. We talk all the time, Chad. I took a lot of heat when I got back here to Jersey from a lot of pros, because I'm willing to give the benefit of doubt to a lot these quarterbacks taking that next step. I was giving no love to Kenny. And, you know, I I don't take too much from preseason football because teams are just running shell defenses. Right? They're running cover two or they're running the zone, and that's really it. They're not really throwing anything at you. But what I wanted to see was Kenny was put the ball down 20 yards down the field, and he did it multiple times. And not only was he doing it, he was looking for their best receiver in picking. So, you know, it's it's one of those where I'm just playing a number. At bet three six five right now, I believe it's 40 to one Pittsburgh. So that's why I'm saying shop around. You can get way better odds right now on this team at this book that again, go to the action app. I put it in there, the exact book. That's a great number to take on a Pittsburgh team that I love teams that play in really hard divisions. Because that means when they get through it, if they get to the wild card, they get they win the division. They've already been through it. They've been playing playoff football since December. That's what I feel like we have in that AFC North. Right? Every team is just really good. So, you know, they got all the weapons. Right? Offensively, the biggest question to me is their offensive line. I do think it's looked better this preseason. So, yeah, 60 to one Pittsburgh, Chad. That's that's my favorite bet right now for long shots, super pods.”
17-31 — Pittsburgh lost 17-31 to Buffalo in the 2023-24 Wild Card round and did not win the Super Bowl; Kansas City won Super Bowl LVIII (Wikipedia 2023-24 NFL playoffs).
“So I love 11 to one worst to first. Houston's my outright favorite.”
Houston completed a worst-to-first turnaround, finishing 10-7 and winning the AFC South in 2023 (ESPN standings). (Texans 10-7)
“DeMeco Ryans coach of the year, I think, is in play. 25 to one, that's one of my favorite coach of the year bets.”
Kevin Stefanski (Browns) won the 2023 AP NFL Coach of the Year award, not DeMeco Ryans (Wikipedia AP Coach of the Year Award).
“my absolute favorite bet on Houston, and my this is literally my favorite bet of the entire preseason circuit is the bet that you already bet against, Chad. Give me my guy Anderson, Will Anderson Jr., to win defensive rookie of the year at five to one.”
Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) won the 2023 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award (Wikipedia).
“and the Houston Texans. I think they jump to top 10 points per game allowed. I think the defense makes a leap to make the playoffs. Give me the 11 to one playoffs.”
Houston finished 10-7, won the AFC South, and made the 2023 playoffs (ESPN standings). (Texans 10-7)
“and I I don't believe in the saints. They're the oldest team I believe in the league, and I just feel like that's a team. I don't believe in Dennis Allen. I think they'll be in the mix. Think they'll be a good team, but I like the falcons a little bit more. Again, to me, they're my favorite in that division. So similar bets here. Worst to first division. Atlanta is my other pick here. Much shorter odds. It's plus two twenty on that one.”
Tampa Bay (9-8) won the NFC South in 2023; Atlanta finished 7-10, not the division winner (ESPN standings). (Falcons 7-10)
“Arthur Smith coach of the year is 14 to one. I'm playing both of those.”
Kevin Stefanski (Browns) won the 2023 AP NFL Coach of the Year award; Arthur Smith's Falcons went 7-10 (Wikipedia AP Coach of the Year Award / ESPN standings).
“then the path is open if the falcons are really good to be the two seed. And if the falcons are the two seed, give me a 10 to one conference finals appearance from the Atlanta falcons.”
Atlanta finished the 2023 regular season 7-10 and missed the playoffs entirely, never reaching the NFC Championship (ESPN standings). (Falcons 7-10)
“Bijan Robinson, offensive rookie of the year, three to one. I took that plus four fifty on draft night. I still like it three to one.”
C.J. Stroud (Texans) won the 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award, not Bijan Robinson (Wikipedia NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award).
“Division, almost two to one in most books. So give me the division. Effectively, that's just a head to head bet. Do I like the cowboys or the eagles? I'm gonna bet on the cowboys. Late in the season, when Dallas hosts Philadelphia for obviously a key game, Philly is coming off of this wicked month long stretch against, like, the best teams in the league, three or four straight games, and then at Dallas at the end of that. That's a huge game. Maybe the most important game in the NFC, and it's a great schedule spot for Dallas. So give me the division. At bet three six five, you can go Dallas one to Philly two plus two seventy.”
Dallas (12-5) won the NFC East over Philadelphia (11-6) in 2023 (ESPN standings).
“hosts Philadelphia for obviously a key game, Philly is coming off of this wicked month long stretch against, like, the best teams in the league, three or four straight games, and then at Dallas at the end of that. That's a huge game. Maybe the most important game in the NFC, and it's a great schedule spot for Dallas. So give me the division. At bet three six five, you can go Dallas one to Philly two plus two seventy. So add a little bit of juice there. Come on. The giants and the commander, they're not sneaking in here. So give me that. Give me the one seed plus six fifty.”
San Francisco (12-5) held the tiebreaker to be the NFC's No. 1 seed in 2023; Dallas (also 12-5) was the No. 2 seed (ESPN standings).
“hosts Philadelphia for obviously a key game, Philly is coming off of this wicked month long stretch against, like, the best teams in the league, three or four straight games, and then at Dallas at the end of that. That's a huge game. Maybe the most important game in the NFC, and it's a great schedule spot for Dallas. So give me the division. At bet three six five, you can go Dallas one to Philly two plus two seventy. So add a little bit of juice there. Come on. The giants and the commander, they're not sneaking in here. So give me that. Give me the one seed plus six fifty. Most wins. If you're the one seed in the NFC, bloodbath in the AFC, you're probably gonna be the best record just like Philly was last year. Most wins at bat three six five is 14 to one. I like the alternate over 12 and a half. That's plus four twenty five. You get 13 wins or more. Probably gonna do that.”
Dallas finished the 2023 regular season 12-5, one win short of the 12.5-win alternate line (ESPN standings). (Cowboys 12-5)
“Number one seed in the AFC. Stop it. Stop it. Like, this titan team is too nasty for y'all. Like like, plus three twenty to win this division is easy money. Like, it's easy money.”
Houston (10-7) won the AFC South in 2023; Tennessee finished 6-11 and did not win the division (ESPN standings). (Titans 6-11)
“This Carolina team doesn't have any of it. The the GM is bad. The coach is bad. These teams usually struggle anyway. The only reason they're even at seven and a half is because they're in this weak division. But at the end of the day, this team is not gonna win many games, in my opinion.”
Panthers finished the 2023 regular season 2-15, well under the 7.5-win total (ESPN standings). (Panthers 2-15)
“I will be betting on them to go over their win total and to win this division. It's just it's a smart bet to make.”
Dallas (12-5) won the NFC East over Philadelphia (11-6) in 2023 (ESPN standings).
“So I am not shocked to see that they have him at six and a half wins just because this division's so tough. I mean, the eagles are really good. Cowboys are really good. Arguably, both are top three teams in NFC. And then you have a giants team that's an overachieving team that's just really tough, well coached. And, you know, Washington, I still think they're a couple pieces away from being a above 500 team. And last year, they almost got there. Right? They were almost in the playoffs. If they had just beaten the Giants, they probably would've been able to get in at towards the end of the season. But, you know, they're just a team that they don't have a winning culture, and they haven't really brought in players that have ever won either across the league. It's it's kind of a team of, you know, of guys that are just trying to find their way at this point. So when I when I'm looking at this Washington team, I was shocked it was six and a half because I thought, wow. That that seems low. And then as the months have gone on, it's like, no. That's a good number. Like, they're they they could steal again, get lucky here or there, and maybe get the seven or eight wins. But as a better, we don't bet on that. We bet on the numbers and what we think is gonna happen, and I'm gonna take the under here on a team that it'll be great for them. Right? If if he can show out and have huge moments, that'd be great for them because they just haven't had a quarterback, and that's been such a huge issue for this team. I mean, Kirk left, what is it, six, seven years ago, and they just really haven't found anyone to replace him since he's left. So, yeah, for me, Washington, I don't care if they made these guys 15 or 20 to one. I just wouldn't take them to this division. I just there's not scenario where I see them being better than the cowboys or better than the eagles. So for for divisional odds, I wouldn't touch it. And if I'm gonna take an under, it's gonna be on the eagles, and it's gonna be on Washington. I think both these teams have good value towards the under this upcoming season.”
Commanders finished the 2023 regular season 4-13, well under the 6.5-win total (ESPN standings). (Commanders 4-13)
“I'll go over 10 and a half with the Cowboys as my as my best bet for the NFC.”
Cowboys finished the 2023 regular season 12-5, over the 10.5-win total (ESPN standings). (Cowboys 12-5)
“But I did bet their win total over 10 and a half is just too low. Like, that to me is an overreaction to the Rogers being in their division”
Bills finished the 2023 regular season 11-6, over the 10.5-win total (ESPN standings). (Bills 11-6)
“The only bet I really made us seem is Tyrekiel. Once again, the lead the lead in receiving yards just because the man himself has set his goal is 2,000 yards.”
Tyreek Hill led the NFL with 1,799 receiving yards in 2023 (ESPN receiving leaders). (Hill 1,799 receiving yards (NFL leader))
“So I am staunchly on their under right now. I got them at 8.5 wins for this season. That's a full game under the nine and a half. I love the value on this team taking their under.”
Jets finished the 2023 regular season 7-10, under the 9.5-win total (ESPN standings). (Jets 7-10)
“But we're sitting here eight to one for them to win this division on bet three six five. I love that number, Chad.”
Buffalo (11-6) won the AFC East on a tiebreaker over Miami (also 11-6); New England finished 4-13 and did not win the division (ESPN standings).
“I've already bet the Pats over seven and a half. I haven't bet the division yet, but I will.”
Patriots finished the 2023 regular season 4-13, well under the 7.5-win total (ESPN standings). (Patriots 4-13)
“New Orleans Saints plus one twenty. Atlanta Falcons plus two twenty. Carolina plus 400. Tampa Bay plus 700. Let's start from the bottom up. Okay? So Tampa Bay, plus 700. Six and a half is the win total. That plus one ten for the over minus one forty for the under. A dreadful, dreadful team. The we don't know who the quarterback's gonna be. Their defensive line used to be the strength of their team ranked in the bottom 10 by Pro Football Focus. I don't know, man. They got they got the tenth hardest schedule in the NFL. No wonder the under is plus is minus one forty. Yeah. It's just a real shame they don't have a quarterback. If only Tom Brady was still on their team, they'd probably have another shot at winning this division again, but he he ain't there. It it was a Trask and Baker fighting for the number one quarterback position right now. So, yeah, just again, you won a Super Bowl three years ago. You sold your soul. I don't think any Tampa Bay fan's gonna complain. It's it is what it is. You guys are incredibly talented at the wide receiver position and at the linebacker position, and that's it. That's that's basically what you guys have. You have really high level talent those those spots. The rest of the team is just gutted. So the offensive line might be a little better, obviously, than it was last year with all the injuries I had last year, but you lost Tom Brady. It's just everyone's gonna bet the under. I mean, I know a couple pros that they're very contrarian. They're like, you have to take the over on this. It's just I asked them to give me five good reasons to take this over, and I think that each of them got the two, and that was about it. And they were like, yep. I I guess this is kinda forcing it here. So if they were a smart team, they would start track, see what they have in the kid, let them be terrible. You can get, you know, a top four, top five pick, get Quarterback of the future and restart over. But to me, this is the team that you know, six and a half that's my only fear is that six and a half, they just feel so high. I just don't understand why this wasn't five and a half five because that's what I have it modeled out at. So that's my only fear when the books have numbers like this that I just seem really off. They have their reasons. They know what they're doing. And everyone in the world's betting this under, and they really haven't moved this number too much. So it's my only real pause, but I got no issue taking this under. I got it off by a game and a half. So, yeah, under six and a half.”
Buccaneers finished the 2023 regular season 9-8, over the 6.5-win total (ESPN standings). (Buccaneers 9-8)
“Carolina panthers plus 400 to win the division. The win total is seven and a half minus one twenty five at bet three six five, plus 100 to the under at the seven and a half. There's only two quarterbacks that are in Sean Kerner's QB tiers for fantasy that are in tier seven from this division. David Carr and Bryce Young. Garrett Carr, you always call him David. It's so true. Do you know why? Do you wanna know why? Because you got some type of story. Because I oh, there you go. Not you sound like you sound like my 20 year old who when I'll say you wanna know why? I'll go, oh god. Tell me why. I was I was just assuming you're gonna be like and I I visited him in Houston. I was staying at his house for a week while I was writing a piece on him for ESPN. Dude, that's exactly what was gonna say. That's what I was really? It's exact it's exactly what I was gonna say. Way too much time together, Chad. So Derek Carr and Bryce Young. I don't know, man. Like, I'm not a buyer. I'm not a buyer on Bryce Young. I'm not a buyer on the Panthers team. We have been big Panthers betters in the past and love them. Their their defensive line, according to, according to is you say sick. Says good, not great. They got Brian Burns. We know they got He's an absolute stud if you don't know who he is. Total stud. Right? Contract year, he will get Nick Bosa, Joey Bosa like money when his deal is up. Nick Bosa right now is sitting out trying to get a better deal from the niners. He wants that, you know, TJ Watt, that Joey Bosa standard deal. Brian Burns is in camp. He is playing. He's gonna go through the year. He will get that deal if he is anything close to what he's been in the past couple years. Derrick Brown, defensive tackle, one of the highest graded defensive tackles according to But that might be the best unit of their whole team. Yeah. Got rid J. Moore. If if You know? It's gonna shock people because I literally all I do is just shit on Bryce Young for six months, and it cost me a lot of money. No fault of his own. But I I love this team, Chad. I know that people are out on me. I know. I know. If I'm if I'm gonna go alongside this division, it's not Atlanta for me. It's this team. And I think it's because Bryce Young to me is the most ready quarterback. Like, do I think his career longevity wise is gonna be great? No. I think he is too in his size. He won't be able to take hits. But for year one, I love the upside of him. He's just I don't know if I've ever had a QB smarter coming out of college. Like, this kid is football wise, he's a genius. Like, he is so good at reading defenses. He's so good at making mistakes and not making the same mistake again. Like, he's just that's why it took him number one. Like, the kid is already made, and, you know, they're gonna talk about his ceiling and everything like that. To me, like, this is his ceiling. Like, the next year or two, I just don't know how he's gonna keep getting better. It's it's all there. So, you know, I'm with you, Chad. They're they got they got holes, but I do think their defense is incredibly strong. Like, this is a really good defensive unit. Frank Reich historically has always started slow. Like, if you go back and look at his years with the Colts, I mean, I have ask Evan Abrams, but I feel like he never won week one or two. Right? It wasn't that always a weird thing with this with them coaching them. Like, they just always started slow. So Yeah. Maybe I'd be better off waiting in season, getting better odds on them divisionally and their win total over, but, you know, I've already bet it. So I I got them eight and a half wins for the year. So, obviously, I'm taking the over seven and a half. Divisionally, Bet three six five hasn't met plus 400.”
Panthers finished the 2023 regular season 2-15, well under the 7.5-win total (ESPN standings). (Panthers 2-15)
“So this is the only other time I'm going chalk is the saints. I just I like the number plus one twenty, plus one thirty. I like the over nine and a half. They're just not that Derek Carr's gotta be feeling the pressure, but this kinda feels like a make or break season for him. Right? He's kinda left for dead here. If he does have a really bad year, I think they'd easily move on from him. But, you know, this is it's just all there from there's no real excuses. Like, offensive line is not that terrible. It's not as bad as it was in Oakland I mean, Las Vegas. And, you know, on the outside, if Michael Thomas can come back to form, that's an incredible number two to have. Like because I do think Chris Lavi is number one on this team. So it's all there, Chad. It's all there for them to be better this year. The the big question is Derek Carr. So I'm a Derek Carr believer. I always have been. I just I like the kid. I think last year, a lot was on him. He melted down as well. I'm gonna put a lot of it on Josh McDaniel too. I just didn't think he put him in the best position. He clearly didn't believe in him. I mean, they could have moved on from him any quicker in this offseason. So, to me, I like him in a revenge bounce back spot, veteran quarterback on a team that they're just in such a weak division. Like, if they're any any if they're in the NFC East, you know, if they're in some of these other divisions, I would not be this high on this team. But they're in the NFC South, and this team is just a wasteland right now of quarterbacks. And Derek Carr is by far the best quarterback in this division, has the most talent on his team. I I gotta take this number, Chad. I'm trying not not trying not to be biased, where I just love taking the big dogs. I do like Carolina, but in reality, my big my biggest bet right now is this team to win this division.”
Tampa Bay (9-8) won the NFC South on a tiebreaker over New Orleans (also 9-8); the Saints did not win the division (ESPN standings).
“New Orleans Saints at plus one twenty to win the division and over nine and a half at plus 100. I mean, plus money on both.”
Saints finished the 2023 regular season 9-8, under the 9.5-win total (ESPN standings). (Saints 9-8)
“when we look at all these other divisions, Chad, there is a clear drop off in this division compared to the other ones. So to me, the Jaguars, if they can't run away with this division, if they can't hit this over, right, think what is it? Nine and a half win total? Nine and a half minus one forty is the over. And that's That bet you're saying. That's one the most bet overs right now, all the sports books. Gonna take it. I got them at 10.7, so that means I'm at over 10 and a half wins. So I'll take the over of nine and a half. It's just there's not crazy value there. Everyone the secret's out. Right, Chad? Everyone knows about this Jaguars team. Everyone's been talking about Calvin Ridley. So”
Jaguars finished the 2023 regular season 9-8, under the 9.5-win total. (JAX 9-8)
“That brings us to the Indianapolis Colts who are plus 600 to win the division. They are at, six and a half wins minus one twenty five to the over. Your favorite player in the NFL, Anthony Richardson, you think he will end up being the best player out of this draft class. You're enamored by his athleticism. I will tell you that Sean Kerner already has Anthony Richardson, we're talking about fantasy tiers, in tier Five. He says Sean Kroner, and you can read this at actionnetwork.com. He has top 10 upside as soon as he becomes a starter Yep. Which kinda goes with what you've been saying. And if you listen to it, we had on Chris and Sean, what was it? A couple a month ago, talking fantasy. He was being drafted to QB 15 at that time, Anthony Richardson. And I said I would take him well above that just because his upside was so high. Now if you look, most drafts, he's going top 10. So Yep. This this past offseason was the first time I ever did consulting work for an NFL team. Chad knows this. And I basically when I went in there in January, and I said this was my guy, my number one QB to draft, I basically could hear a pin drop, Chad. Not laughed out of the room. It was more like, who the hell is this guy? Why are we paying him? And why is he telling us to draft this kid who most teams had a second round grade on him. So that was this is one of these moments where I really enjoyed doing consulting work. Like, working for these NFL teams was cool as shit. So I'm hoping this kid pans out because I really am tied to him now. Like, if he is good and the team I work for, the the QB they drafted is not good, that's really good for me because I was so big on this kid, and no one else there was. Like, literally, these people looked at me like I was crazy when I mentioned his name. So I'm gonna be biased about Anthony Richardson. I can already tell everything he's done in this preseason, Chad, is what I envisioned. A big body, big strong-arm, great athlete. Everything about him just remind me of a smarter, faster version of Cam Newton, and it's it's looking that way right now. So I don't if you remember Cam Newton's rookie year. It was historical. Now do I think he's gonna do that? Most likely not. We've never seen anything like that. I think Cam threw for 4,000 yards. The big reason was Cam had Steve Smith. Like, if you're going to bring in a rookie quarterback and have a hall of famer wide receiver with him, Steve Smith was the guy to do it with. Right? That that was a perfect one two for Cam Newton. Anthony Richardson, man, I am beyond hyped about this kid. Like, I think someone put up his numbers the other day. He is six four, and he wants to play at two fifty. Six four playing at two fifty, and he can run a sub four four forty. It's it's crazy. I can't believe he wasn't the first or second quarterback drafted, but it's irrelevant now. It's the deed is done. He's on the colts. And, you know, the colts had coach. He did wonders with Jalen Hurts, and now he's getting Anthony Richardson a even bigger, better athlete. Now it's a to me, it's a three year plan with Anthony Richardson. Do I think he's gonna come out this year and have major make major mistakes? Of course. This kid is just raw. He is a raw ball of town. So I'm not betting on them to win the division. I won't waste money there. Me and Chad already talked about it. It's gonna either be Tennessee or nothing for me in this division. But with the colts, six and a half over over under wins, I like the value towards the over. To me, this is a team that could easily get to seven, eight wins this upcoming season”
Colts finished the 2023 regular season 9-8, over the 6.5-win total. (IND 9-8)
“And we probably like Houston under five and a half wins. Also, a lot of juice at minus one sixty.”
Texans finished the 2023 regular season 10-7, well over the 5.5-win total. (HOU 10-7)
“But I feel like we gotta go with Cleveland plus three fifty to win the division.”
The Baltimore Ravens (13-4) won the AFC North; the Cleveland Browns finished 11-6 as a wild card, not division winner.
“By the time I made the bet on the Ravens, I didn't know that. So I was basically just hedging my already bet that I already had in Cleveland, on this Ravens team.”
The Baltimore Ravens (13-4) won the AFC North; the Cleveland Browns finished 11-6 as a wild card, not division winner.
“We're we're playing fire here, but over eight and a half, we're gonna be on it. It sucks it's all up to minus one seventy.”
Browns finished the 2023 regular season 11-6, over the 8.5-win total. (CLE 11-6)
“Cleveland Browns over eight and a half. Right now, it's pretty expensive, minus $1.70”
Browns finished the 2023 regular season 11-6, over the 8.5-win total. (CLE 11-6)
“So I I threw a small bet on their overwin total. I believe it's 9 and a half.”
Ravens finished the 2023 regular season 13-4, over the 9.5-win total. (BAL 13-4)
“we loved Cleveland plus two and a half against Cincinnati in week one. Joe Burrow's not playing. We like that even more.”
24-3 — Browns beat Bengals 24-3 in Week 1 (Sept 10, 2023); Browns +2.5 covers (margin +21).
“It's it's gonna be hard to see them stealing games from the 49ers, the Rams, and and Seattle there, but, you know, it's just just a really tough schedule for this this steelers team. So, week one, me and Chad love them plus three at home against the 40.”
7-30 — 49ers beat Steelers 30-7 in Week 1 (Sept 10, 2023); Steelers +3 fails to cover (margin -23).
“Packers plus 400 to win the division for sure is by far my favorite.”
The Detroit Lions (12-5) won the NFC North; the Green Bay Packers finished 9-8 as a wild card, not division winner.
“So my favorite bet right now for this this division is them at plus 400 to win this division, the over seven and a half. I just think it's all there for this Bears team.”
The Detroit Lions (12-5) won the NFC North; the Chicago Bears finished 7-10, last in the division.
“the over seven and a half. I just think it's all there for this Bears team. And the only fear, Chad, for me right now is we're a year early. Like, if if they don't take the step next year, could easily see them taking it next year, but I'm not gonna wait to bet on it. I mean, I'm gonna bet it this year just because I think it's all there for them to make a ten and seven,”
Bears finished the 2023 regular season 7-10, under the 7.5-win total. (CHI 7-10)
“definitely a make or break season for Kirk Cousins' Vikings team. I'm gonna think they fall underneath the pressure. I'm gonna take that under eight and a half.”
Vikings finished the 2023 regular season 7-10, under the 8.5-win total. (MIN 7-10)
“don't love it, Chad. The nine and a half is a little scary too. I got them in nine and eight. Right? I I think that's that's a fair number for this team where I do think they're gonna win some games, but Rich also talked about they have a hard schedule. So, you know, I'm sorry to dampen Detroit fans. I mean, they don't care. They're all in. They're all hyped up. They're probably gonna be like, you guys are bear homers anyway. But to me, that's where the value is in this division. I think the bears, to me, are the value. I think Rich, he thought it was Green Bay. You're not gonna hear too many pros say no. No. No. The lions, that's where the value is in this division. Plus one thirty? Come on, sportsbooks. This should be plus one seventy, plus one eighty. Like, there's just there's no way I think this team is an easy pick to win this division. There's just too many questions on this team. So, you know, I won't be taking their over, won't be betting their division odds, won't be betting their supervillades. But in season, can already tell, Chad, we're definitely gonna be taking this Lions team. They're gonna have great matchups, diff different points of the year where, you know, for four and five, four and six, people are gonna be pissed off. They're gonna be leaving there for dead. That's where I mean you step in, Chad. Like, those are our favorite teams that people are leaving them for dead, we know the talent's still there. Nothing's changed. And we saw last year this team improved every week, and that's what you're looking for from their head coach. So, sorry to say the Lions fans, you're just you're overvalued right now. Like, even you guys know you guys are overvalued right now. So that's the thing. You just gotta rein people in here. Like, again, we're not shitting your team. Won't be shocked at end the year if you guys win this division. You are a playoff team, but I just don't think the value is there. So this is the team I will be taking a small bet on their under.”
Lions finished the 2023 regular season 12-5, well over the 9.5-win total. (DET 12-5)
“I bet the over 33 and a half on on the hall of fame game tonight.”
21-16 — Browns beat Jets 21-16 in the 2023 Hall of Fame Game; combined 37 points is over 33.5.
“I would still take the under at six and a half. I have them at six wins.”
Raiders finished the 2023 regular season 8-9, over the 6.5-win total. (LV 8-9)
“Well, I mean, for a loyal listener to show, you know, my biggest bet early in the season for Wynn told us was the Raiders under. The Raiders open at seven and a half minus one forty.”
Raiders finished the 2023 regular season 8-9, over the 7.5-win total. (LV 8-9)
“We like the chiefs plus five fifty to win the division. No. Denver broncos. Denver broncos. I mean, I'm sorry. The, broncos plus five fifty to win the division.”
The Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) won the AFC West; the Denver Broncos finished 8-9 and did not win the division.
“The broncos, over eight and a half wins. You can still get that at minus one ten at bet three six five.”
Broncos finished the 2023 regular season 8-9, under the 8.5-win total. (DEN 8-9)
“I'm just gonna be betting on regression this year for the Chiefs. So, yeah, best best bet for this Chiefs team. Not gonna do anything divisional. Not gonna do any Super Bowl futures. I'm just gonna take the under 11 and a half.”
Chiefs finished the 2023 regular season 11-6, under the 11.5-win total. (KC 11-6)
“and this sort of goes against what I just said, is that Brock Purdy like, one of the most intriguing bets to me that I've made this offseason was Brock Purdy 75 to one to win MVP. Because it's basically the same thesis”
Lamar Jackson won the 2023 NFL AP MVP award; Brock Purdy did not win.
“I have no doubt they'll cross this 11 and a half number. But if you're betting off a model, no models are gonna tell you to take this over. It's just a bad number. It's just a public number too. Like, the books, I'm shocked they even dropped to 11. I guess they're they know there's not enough people that bet that plus number 11 half to take the over. So to me, it's it's a good number. Ten and seven, eleven and six, that's right where the 49ers are probably gonna finish this year. So I'm I'm happy to take that under, Chad. Well, that's what's interesting about the niners. Quick note. Don't know, Jeffrey. It's my podcast.”
49ers finished the 2023 regular season 12-5, over the 11.5-win total. (SF 12-5)
“Rams plus one zero five over six and a half”
Rams finished the 2023 regular season 10-7, over the 6.5-win total. (LAR 10-7)
“But shouldn't we be going all in on the rams? Simon, you first at plus 900 and over six and a half? Yeah. I didn't wanna stop you, Chad, because I respect you that much when you said Stafford. You're unsure about him. What's there to be unsure about? The man is on the man has been in camp. He did the off season program.”
The 49ers won the NFC West at 12-5; the Rams finished second at 10-7 (ESPN 2023 standings).
“Arizona maybe can do it, but I just don't believe it. So to me, Chad, I hate going with the public. This is one of most this is one the most heavily bet public bets right now. I saw Action tweeted out earlier today, the under four and a half. I'll deal with Chad. I'll join the public, I'll take the under four and a half. It just feels like the right number for a team that just has no identity right now. We did bet the Texans under four and a half, I think, last year or two years ago,”
Cardinals finished the 2023 regular season 4-13, under the 4.5-win total. (ARI 4-13)
“So I I think lots of concerns for the Jets and plenty of reasons for me to believe I would rather go under nine and a half here than go over.”
Jets finished the 2023 regular season 7-10, under the 9.5-win total. (NYJ 7-10)
“we do like the Rams over six and a half,”
Rams finished the 2023 regular season 10-7, over the 6.5-win total. (LAR 10-7)
“this is the year to do [21:49] it for atlanta so already already got my falcons future in”
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the 2023 NFC South at 9-8; the Falcons finished 3rd at 7-10, so the division-winner futures bet lost.
“We don't quite know what team he's going to be on yet, but I think he's going to be the guy that wins rookie of the year. He's going to put up the numbers. Rookie of the year is not about advanced stats and defense and winning. Like my research is just basically says, take the guy with the numbers. I think Scoot's going to have the numbers. I think Victor's numbers are going to come and go a little bit. He's going to have nights where he picked up that injury in the first quarter. And then they're like, you know what? Let's play it safe. You're out for tonight. Or we got those two fouls in the first minute or two because he's reaching over guys or something like that. Scoot, I think, is going to play and get the numbers. Plus 450 at bet 365, I think is a good number for Scoot. That was my bet in the article. That's the way I'm fading Limbanyama right now.”
Victor Wembanyama won 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year unanimously (99 first-place votes); Scoot Henderson did not win, so the +450 futures bet lost.
“to bet on uncertainty. I like Brandon Miller to go number four in the draft, because if he's not number two everyone agrees scoot two or three for sure not everyone agrees Brandon Miller is the next that same level or the next guy at to go number four is 25 to one right now at bet 365”
Brandon Miller was drafted 2nd overall by the Charlotte Hornets in the 2023 NBA Draft, not 4th, so the +2500 bet lost.
“I'm going to bet on Asar to go ahead of Amon. Bet on the Thompson twins. It's plus 275 right now at bat 365.”
In the 2023 NBA Draft, Amen Thompson was taken 4th overall by Houston and Ausar Thompson was taken 5th overall by Detroit, so Ausar was NOT drafted before Amen; the +275 bet lost.
“If you want a shorter, more certain hit, one of the best overrunners I like on the board is Gigi Jackson, over 26 and a half. So in draft terms, that means picks 27th or lower. Gigi Jackson reclassified. He's one of the youngest guys in draft at South Carolina. He is young and he looked the part. He played young. He played immature. He got benched for a stretch of the season. He had a lot of bad body language, and he's had a lot of rough interview process as well. And that stuff matters this time of the year for draft. You're interviewing. You're interviewing for a job position. I don't think it's gotten well. his agent also is an agent that has no other NBA players currently right now. That matters too. You need to get the phone call. You need the connection. So I'll bet the over on him. It's minus 160, but I'll drink the juice on that one.”
GG Jackson was drafted 45th overall by the Memphis Grizzlies in the 2023 NBA Draft, well over the 26.5 line, so the -160 over won.
“Jordan Walsh to go first round. [40:20] If you can still get it 30 to one, I think I see it right now. [40:23] That's 365 is 16 to one.”
Jordan Walsh was drafted 38th overall (second round, by Sacramento then dealt to Boston) in the 2023 NBA Draft, not in the first round, so the +1600 bet lost.
“two on the top of my list i've got cameron smith who's been playing on live golf but we saw him win”
Wyndham Clark won the 2023 U.S. Open at -10; Cameron Smith finished T4th at -6, so the futures bet lost (ESPN leaderboard).
“for the pga championship and then of course jordan spieth who is the game's preeminent magician right”
Wyndham Clark won the 2023 U.S. Open at -10; Jordan Spieth missed the cut (143 total), so the futures bet lost (ESPN leaderboard).
“We might like Patrick Reed as a long shot.”
Wyndham Clark won the 2023 U.S. Open at -10; Patrick Reed missed the cut (+8, 288 total), so the futures bet lost (ESPN leaderboard).
“And maybe even 85, 90 to one is Siwoo Kim. Siwoo Kim is a guy we've always known has a very high ceiling, but one that doesn't always rear its head because he'll win and then he'll go away for a year or so where he can that it's a bottomless floor. And so when he's not winning, he's shooting 79s and missing the cut. That has changed over the past year. He's now made 18 of 21 cuts this season. He's been top seven in three of his last six starts. We know the ceiling is still there. The floor has been elevated. What I always say about outright long shot plays is, look, if they finish second or they finish 156th, you lose the same amount of money. I want a guy who has that high ceiling as a long shot and can win. I think Siwoo Kim gives you that ceiling this week.”
Wyndham Clark won the 2023 U.S. Open at -10; Si Woo Kim missed the cut (+4, 284 total), so the futures bet lost (ESPN leaderboard).
“The one other player that I have bet, in full disclosure, I've bet those four already, and I put a little on Tony Finau at 40 to one.”
Wyndham Clark won the 2023 U.S. Open at -10; Tony Finau finished T32nd at +3 (283 total), so the 40-1 futures bet lost (ESPN leaderboard).
“I do like Florida tonight, though, from a betting standpoint.”
9-3 — Vegas Golden Knights beat Florida Panthers 9-3 in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final to win the series; the Panthers moneyline lost.
“what will your your same game parlay be but then I have a follow-up sure uh three goal scorers uh Michael Amadio on Vegas he's like plus 460 uh Anton Lundell on Florida he's five plus 550 and Alex Pietrangelo on Vegas. He's 7-1. I think they're all worth it.”
In Golden Knights 9, Panthers 3 (Game 5): Michael Amadio scored a goal (won leg), Anton Lundell did not score (lost leg), Alex Pietrangelo did not score (lost leg, though he had assists); parlay needs all three legs to win, so it lost.
“Yeah. I did I did the lazy bet of I took nuggets minus one and a half for the series. So I took them to win in six, hopefully.”
4-1 — Nuggets beat Heat 4-1 in the 2023 Finals, clinching Game 5 94-89 on June 12, 2023 — a series win in 5, within 'win in 6 or fewer,' and covering -1.5.
“I'll take Nuggets minus one and a half, but I'm just gonna tell you, if Simon's right and the public comes in on Miami, I'm gonna be on Nuggets minus two and a half as well.”
4-1 — Nuggets won the 2023 Finals 4-1, easily covering -1.5 on the series spread.
“Talking to a couple pros after that game last night, one of their favorite guys to fade in this upcoming upcoming series is Caleb Martin's total. So if if it's if it's over under 10 and a half points, I'm gonna be on that under for sure.”
Caleb Martin scored 3, 3, 10, 11, and 10 points across Games 1-5 of the 2023 NBA Finals (7.4 ppg average) — under 10.5 in every single game and on average. (Caleb Martin Finals: 3, 3, 10, 11, 10 pts (7.4 ppg avg))
“I'm betting the Colts plus three and a half. You're not betting it yet.”
31-21 — Jaguars beat Colts 31-21 in Week 1 (Sept 10, 2023); Colts lost outright, outside +3.5.
“I'm all in on Anthony Richardson. He's my I already talked about I bet him for rookie of the year every week.”
2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year was C.J. Stroud, not Anthony Richardson.
“for week one so far. Because here's another one that I love. Are you ready? Yeah. Ben Roethlisberger's nemesis, Kenny Pickett, as a three point underdog at home against the San Francisco forty niners. Are you fucking kidding me? That is irresponsible to have the steelers as three point underdogs. This team Team a Mike Tomlin rah rah spot. Matt Mitchell, cue it, play it, run it, give me the dogs. What? A rah rah Mike Tomlin spot. Win the game with this crew of bodies right here today. Bring y'all a game today. Yay. Mike Tomlin, rah rah spot. San Francisco, way overvalued. Kenny Pickett played really well. His defense is really good. They improved at every level. Like, of course, we're taking the Steelers. And I guarantee you, Simon, the Steelers will be one half of our underdog money line parlay. Lock. Lock.”
30-7 — 49ers routed Steelers 30-7 in Week 1 (Sept 10, 2023); Steelers lost outright by 23, outside +3.
“Arizona plus six on the road at the just discussed Washington commanders.”
20-16 — Commanders beat Cardinals 20-16 in Week 1 (Sept 10, 2023); Cardinals lost by 4, covering +6.
“Rams. Rams plus six against the Seahawks. The Seahawks, Chad. What what in the world? The Rams are plus six? Unless Stafford's arm really fell off and Cooper Kupp's not gonna be back. This is an insane line. This is truly an insane line. I I get people are thinking the Rams are done. They're finished. Stafford's completely done. I haven't seen any of that anywhere. Right? Everything I've seen, he's hoping to be back for the start of the season, same with Cooper Kupp. So to me, this is one of those I just threw a bet on it just in case the number does drop once he is back officially.”
30-13 — Rams beat Seahawks 30-13 outright in Week 1 (Sept 10, 2023), easily covering +6.
“I actually bet the other side. I was on the Patriots at minus three I mean, plus three and a half. I was on the Patriots at plus four. If you log in right now to bet three six five, it's up to plus five for the state of agency.”
25-20 — Eagles beat Patriots 25-20 in Week 1 (Sept 10, 2023); Patriots lost by 5, one point outside the +4 line.
“The Vikings minus six and a half, Chad.”
20-17 — Vikings lost outright to Buccaneers 20-17 in Week 1 (Sept 10, 2023), missing -6.5 by a wide margin.
“It's the Browns. Like, we Browns plus two and a half against the Bengals right now. We have to do it. Like, that is the stinkiest, fishiest line. The public is going to be hammering Cincy in this spot.”
24-3 — Browns beat Bengals 24-3 outright in Week 1 (Sept 10, 2023), crushing the +2.5 number.
“So I'll take nuggets here. Minus one and half on a series spread, get you plus one thirty at bet three three sixty five.”
4-0 — Nuggets swept the Lakers 4-0 in the 2023 Western Conference Finals, clinching with a 113-111 Game 4 win on May 22, 2023 — well within 'win in 6 or fewer.'
“I actually hit my best bet for the series is Heat plus two and a half. You get minus one forty at the three six five because”
4-3 — Heat won the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals 4-3 over Boston, clinching Game 7 103-84 on May 29, 2023, so the +2.5 series spread cashes on the outright win.
“I actually disagree with Maria because I absolutely think that the heat are gonna win game one.”
123-116 — Heat beat Celtics 123-116 in Game 1 of the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals on May 17, 2023.
“No. I will take the Atlanta dream over 18 and a half. That team”
Atlanta Dream finished the 2023 WNBA regular season 19-21, over the 18.5 win total. (Dream 2023: 19-21)
“I do love Delle Donne though, plus 600, six to one Yeah. For a beast that's gonna put up big numbers. She's still dominant. To me, that's the best value on the board. To be clear, like, again, I did put I did put money on Delle Donne.”
2023 WNBA MVP was Breanna Stewart of the New York Liberty, not Elena Delle Donne.
“I do think the most realistic thing we see here is the Liberty winning the title. When I saw that I could get this a little juice on bet three six five just a little bit, I was like, oh, I'm going I'm going Liberty here. I put it in this morning because we haven't seen a repeat champion in the WNBA for over twenty years.”
The Las Vegas Aces beat the New York Liberty 3-1 to win the 2023 WNBA title (Game 4, 70-69, Oct 18, 2023); the Liberty did not win. (Aces def. Liberty 3-1)
“I was just having fun with with sleeper picks. I put some down on the mystics at plus 1,400.”
The Las Vegas Aces beat the New York Liberty 3-1 to win the 2023 WNBA title; the Washington Mystics did not make the Finals. (Aces def. Liberty 3-1)
“the the Mystics went twenty two and fourteen. Their total this year is 24 and a half. So if she's playing more and traveling more, I think they can win two or three more games. So that's a really good example. Like, you wanna you wanna look at that. And so I I like them for a total.”
Washington Mystics finished the 2023 WNBA regular season 19-21, under the 24.5-win line. (Mystics 2023: 19-21)
“Okay. So I'm gonna blow your mind right now. I'm ready. Chelsea Chelsea Gray is on the aces. She was the finals MVP last year. She had a historic postseason. She averaged, like, 22 points, seven assists, 54% from three. A true shooting percentage is 72, 61% from the floor. She has plus 10,000 to be the WNBA MVP, and I bet on that.”
2023 WNBA MVP was Breanna Stewart, not Chelsea Gray.
“I already bet Delle Donne, just to be fair.”
2023 WNBA MVP was Breanna Stewart, not Elena Delle Donne.
“I'm gonna go with a little bit of a long shot on top, though. Give me the number eight horse, mage, at 15 to one on top. This is a bit of a stretch, but in this type of race, I wanna take a shot.”
Mage won the 2023 (149th) Kentucky Derby at 15-1 odds.
“11 half is very, very rich for a Bengals team that had a lot of good breaks last year. Right? They weren't the best in their division. The Ravens were clearly gonna win that division till Lamar went down. Then they're able to catch up to them. Yes. Joe Burrow is incredible. They have an incredible team. But they have a lot of stuff coming up right now where they're about to pay Joe Burrow. So I agree with people. This is probably their last real year to make a run, but it's such a tough division. We've seen it time and time again. That North is just a brutally tough division. I can't see them getting to 11 wins, Chad. That's just really rich. So the fact that it's 11 and a half, I love that under. I know it's up to minus one twenty in most books now. I'd still take it. I'd take it down to 10 and a half. To me, that's where it should be now that division's settled in now. There is no easy game for them. Right? They they were first in their division. Means we're gonna play a first place schedule.”
Bengals finished the 2023 NFL regular season 9-8, under the 11.5 win total (ESPN standings). (9-8)
“I like the ravens over. Our sponsor bet three six five right now has the ravens team total at 8 and a half. Now you're gonna pay the juice. It's minus $1.60. But are you kidding me? 8 and a half?”
Ravens finished the 2023 NFL regular season 13-4, over the 8.5 team win total (ESPN standings). (13-4)
“The Steelers right now the Steelers over plus eight and a half, plus 100 at bet three six five. We love betting the Steelers and their win totals. That Tomlin, I can't I can't remember. Matt Mitchell, can you tell me? What did the Steelers finish last year? But I'm pretty sure in every seven and a half, so he hit the over. Yeah. So that right. They had eight wins last year. So Mike Tomlin has never finished below 500 or, in this case, since a 17 game season, below eight wins. So they're at eight and a half with Kenny Pickett at a full season. Huge, huge fan of Kenny Pickett, Kenny Baller. And they had a really good draft. Like, eight and a half at plus 100? I don't know how you're not betting that.”
Steelers finished the 2023 NFL regular season 10-7, over the 8.5 win total (ESPN standings). (10-7)
“I want Anthony Richardson for offensive rookie of the year. I just I just love the spot he landed in. I love the colts.”
C.J. Stroud won the 2023 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, not Anthony Richardson.
“Yeah. Offensive rookie of the year, I love Bijan Robinson. I bet him the night of the draft. I I looked for the odds the moment that the pick got made. We knew it was coming, but here are some things I googled when Bijan Robinson officially went to the falcons. Hey, Google. What's the rookie rushing record? Has a rookie ever led the league in rushing yards? Like, these are things I think long shots, but I think there are things that could be in play. Arthur Smith is the Derrick Henry guy. Arthur Smith takes dudes off the street and turns them into five yards per carry players. So Tyler Alger, Cordero Patterson, I'm a Vikings fan, guys. He was a failed receiver from a decade ago, and now he's just apparently like a good NFL running back. Bijan Robinson is awesome, and he's gonna get 300 plus touches. And he gets to 1,500 plus yards, probably double digit touchdowns. He's gonna be the feature in that offense. Richardson, probably my second pick there, but I still love Bijan. It was plus four fifty draft night. I still see some plus three fifties out there.”
C.J. Stroud won the 2023 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, not Bijan Robinson.
“Defensively, my pick here is boring, but it's because it needs to be. Every defensive rookie of the year this century has been a top 39 pick. Every single one of them, 20 out of twenty three first round picks, 19 of them top 15 picks. Since 2010, five were top three picks. That's where I'm going. Only one defender in the top three. Give me Will Anderson. I see a plus 500 out there.”
Will Anderson Jr. of the Texans won the 2023 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award.
“Over four and a half quarterbacks taken in the first round. I'm a firm believer [35:16] Hendon Hooker will sleep will sneak into the bottom of the first round.”
Only 3 quarterbacks (Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson) were drafted in round 1, so the over 4.5 lost (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“And my biggest bet still was the over one and a half running backs taken. Just Gibson to me, the Alabama kid like, we already talked about it.”
Two running backs, Bijan Robinson (No. 8) and Jahmyr Gibbs (No. 12), were drafted in round 1, clearing the over 1.5 (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“my my favorite bet still, Chad, for first defender taken is still Jalen Carter. I just still see somehow [30:50] the seahawks or Detroit taking him with that that pick when they get to him.”
The first defensive player drafted was Will Anderson Jr. at No. 3, not Jalen Carter, who went No. 9 (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“Will Anderson over three and a half, [23:43] I I couldn't bet enough on that. I really couldn't. I mean, it was one of those bets I just kept making over the weekend.”
Will Anderson Jr. was drafted No. 3 overall by Houston, which is under the 3.5 line, so the over lost (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“So I like to chat over one and a half running backs taking the first round. I think it was plus one ten.”
Two running backs, Bijan Robinson (No. 8) and Jahmyr Gibbs (No. 12), were drafted in round 1, clearing the over 1.5 (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“Robinson be a top 10 pick, Chad. Love it. I I love this pick so much.”
Bijan Robinson was drafted No. 8 overall by Atlanta, inside the top 10 (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“I still I still have a little bit of money on Jalen Carter to be the first defensive player to take.”
The first defensive player drafted was Will Anderson Jr. at No. 3; Jalen Carter went No. 9, so Carter was not the first defensive player off the board (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“I I can't stop doing what I keep doing, but I keep betting more money on CJ Stroud to be a top [44:16] three, top two, top one pick.”
C.J. Stroud was drafted No. 2 overall by Houston, inside the top 3 (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“I would bet, over four and a half quarterbacks in the first round right now.”
Only 3 quarterbacks (Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson) were drafted in round 1; no other QB was taken before pick 32, so the over 4.5 lost (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“The biggest draft bet I've made, I think, is Bijan Robinson, [7:46] to go, like, top [7:48] five or six [7:49] in that range. That that is the biggest bet I've made so far because I think someone's gonna reach out for him.”
Bijan Robinson was drafted No. 8 overall by Atlanta, outside the top 5/6 (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“So bad read by me. Definitely gonna looking like I'm gonna take on the chin, but I'm a psycho. Like, I already bet more on CJ to be the first pick still. Kinda digging my feet in a little bit about it.”
Bryce Young was the No. 1 overall pick (Carolina Panthers); C.J. Stroud went No. 2 to Houston, so Stroud was not the No. 1 overall pick (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“I bet at 25 to 1 and 21, Zay Flowers to be the number one pick for wide receivers. [38:13] We've seen his odds go way, way up after he's had a couple workouts.”
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the first wide receiver drafted, at pick No. 20 (Seattle); Zay Flowers went No. 22 to Baltimore, so Flowers was not the first WR off the board (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“in fact, that was a bet I made is that a matching team to play, I think, Quentin John Quentin Johnston to Kansas City. I think I got it, like, plus, like, [40:41] 3,000 odds, which I thought was generous.”
Quentin Johnston was drafted No. 21 overall by the Los Angeles Chargers, not the Kansas City Chiefs (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“I'm not sure you hear what Travis has say about it, but, you know, they're plus two thirty right now to make that pick in the third spot, at FanDuel. And to me, you know, they're a team that that makes sense in that division. You got Trevor Lawrence. So if they move in that three spot, they'd have hoo Houston ahead of them, which obviously is drafting a quarterback, we think, or they maybe they're they're not. Then you have them in the three spot. Then right behind me, you have the Colts. So, pretty crazy. AFC South are all going in on quarterbacks. They're all, you know, trying to make that next move. I just I I wanna believe it's Tennessee, but, like, people keep saying, it's all rumors, Chad. Everything we're hearing now is just strictly rumors. Nothing set in stone. So the reason I'm Ben is just feels like good value at 02:30. When there's smoke, there's fire. There's a lot of smoke right now in Tennessee moving to that three hole. So what do you think about this going on right now, Travis?”
The Houston Texans traded up to make the No. 3 overall pick (Will Anderson Jr.) in the 2023 NFL Draft; the Titans picked 11th (Peter Skoronski), so the Titans-at-No.-3 bet lost.
“As far as best, like, right now that you can still make, I I still think Jackson Smith and Jigba, for first receiver overall, about minus 200.”
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the first wide receiver selected in the 2023 NFL Draft, going 20th overall to Seattle, one pick ahead of Quentin Johnston at 21.
“So I I like those two head to head wagers that I talked about, with Cameron Jason Day over Cameron Young and Tiger Woods over Sergio Garcia.”
293-282 — Cameron Young finished T7 at -6 (282) while Jason Day finished T39 at +5 (293) in the 2023 Masters, so Young beat Day and the Day-over-Young head-to-head lost.
“So I I like those two head to head wagers that I talked about, with Cameron Jason Day over Cameron Young and Tiger Woods over Sergio Garcia.”
147-151 — Tiger Woods made the cut at 147 (+3) and withdrew during round 3, while Sergio Garcia missed the cut at 151 (+7); Woods had the lower score and advanced further, so under standard golf-matchup withdrawal rules the Woods-over-Garcia head-to-head won.
“But I think the more tangible way to attack this market [32:58] with Alex Noren, you could take them at to come top 30 at plus two forty.”
Alex Noren missed the cut at 153 (+9) at the 2023 Masters, so the top-30 finish bet lost. (153 (+9), missed cut)
“You know, Fitzpatrick, you could make an argument about, like, his game is not in the right spot right now. But with the way that I'm running my data with it, like, he's a top 15 WinEquity player that you can get at plus one forty five to come top 20 on FanDuel.”
Matt Fitzpatrick finished T10 at -4 (284) at the 2023 Masters, inside the top 20, so the bet won. (T10, 284 (-4))
“And then if you could get Rory at anything $8.09, or 10 to 1 or above, I think that that's a very intriguing price there.”
Jon Rahm won the 2023 Masters at -12 (276); Rory McIlroy missed the cut at 149 (+5), so the McIlroy outright lost. (McIlroy 149 (+5), missed cut)
“I think the best value on the board, I had proper number on Tony Finau at 22 to one.”
Jon Rahm won the 2023 Masters at -12 (276); Tony Finau finished T26 at even par (288), so the Finau outright lost. (Finau T26, 288 (E))
“So definitely a win total under bet for me, [7:42] probably down to about 88 wins after the Reese Hoskins injury.”
Phillies finished 90-72 in 2023, well over the 88-win total, so the Phillies-under bet lost (ESPN standings). (90-72)
“So all that adds up to me to making the Braves about 60% to win their division, minus 150 at plus. They were plus 140. After the Diaz injury, they dropped down to about plus 115. And then I think after the Hoskins injury, they moved closer to even money. So you've seen the market adjust relative to the injuries for the Mets and the Phillies in favor of the Braves. But yeah, I mean, since the midpoint of last season, the Braves have been my favorite team in baseball, my best protected team in baseball. Fangraphs has basically carried the same opinion. Pakoda is lower on the Braves and higher on the Mets. But I'm happy to see that it's not just me who views the Braves as the best team in baseball, not only from a depth perspective, but in terms of the star talent they have. They lose to Andy Swanson, but they didn't get a full season from Acuna last year. I expect Matt Olsen to take another step forward. Ozzie Albee is coming back. So they lost a little bit of production, but I expect them to replace it in different ways. And just the number of outs they give themselves to with player development, how deep their bullpen is. It's a very difficult team, but the safety of betting the Braves now at 10 to 1, knowing they're going to make the playoffs, I think is why I like them. Pennant, World Series, and in addition to their divisional futures, they're just a very likely team to make the Devs.”
Braves went 104-58 in 2023 and won the NL East (ESPN standings).
“It's a very difficult team, but the safety of betting the Braves now at 10 to 1, knowing they're going to make the playoffs, I think is why I like them. Pennant, World Series, and in addition to their divisional futures, they're just a very likely team to make the Devs.”
The Braves were eliminated by the Phillies in the 2023 NLDS (3-1), and the Rangers won the World Series, so the Braves-to-win-the-World-Series futures lost.
“He's looking for home runs, but in terms of what he's looking to recognize and hit, this guy is as good as Soto in terms of plate discipline.”
Matt Olson led MLB with 54 home runs in 2023; Yordan Alvarez did not lead, so the HR-leader futures lost. (Olson 54 HR)
“and I bet him MVP at 14 to one as well.”
Shohei Ohtani won the 2023 AL MVP unanimously; Yordan Alvarez did not win, so the MVP futures lost.
“But his odds relative to where he ranks in terms of his average expected production per playing time, I have him as the RBI leader in terms of RBIs per plate appearance, all of it aligns with his price points.”
Matt Olson led MLB with 139 RBI in 2023; Yordan Alvarez did not lead, so the RBI-leader futures lost. (Olson 139 RBI)
“I like the Marlins over 74 and a half wins.”
Marlins finished 84-78 in 2023, over the 74.5-win total (ESPN standings). (84-78)
“My favorite under is the White Sox under 89 and 83.5, I'm sorry,”
White Sox finished 61-101 in 2023, well under the 83.5-win total (ESPN standings). (61-101)
“Yeah, Garrett Cole, Max Fried, tie-to-top, my projection late at 15. They've kind of been the projected leaders the past two or three years, just based on the number of times they take the ball, the teams they play for, and how deep they both pitch into games. So they're around for a lot of decisions. Play for 90 plus one teams. Take the ball 32 times a year. You're going to automatically project for around 14 or 15 wins. Freed is 25 to one. I think he should be closer to 20 to one. So he is my favorite bet in that category.”
Spencer Strider led MLB pitchers with 20 wins in 2023; Max Fried did not lead, so the pitcher-wins futures lost. (Strider 20 W)
“These teams are all futures that I bet Guardians and Yankees in the American League”
Guardians finished 76-86 in 2023 and missed the playoffs, so the pennant/final-four future lost. (76-86)
“These teams are all futures that I bet Guardians and Yankees in the American League”
Yankees finished 82-80 in 2023 and missed the playoffs, so the pennant/final-four future lost. (82-80)
“And then we're going to go with the Braves and Padres in the NL.”
Padres finished 82-80 in 2023 and missed the playoffs, so the pennant/final-four future lost. (82-80)
“You know, 10 to 1 for Ronald Acuna Jr. to win the MVP is my favorite bet for Atlanta.”
Ronald Acuna Jr. won the 2023 NL MVP award unanimously.
“he wants to give us a a home run long shot let's go baby byron buxton minnesota center fielder dh 60 to 1 you can find him that high”
Matt Olson led MLB with 54 home runs in 2023; Byron Buxton did not lead, so the HR-leader futures lost. (Olson 54 HR)
“So let me offer you Bubba Thompson as the steals leader at 50 to 1.”
Ronald Acuna Jr. led MLB with 73 stolen bases in 2023; Bubba Thompson did not lead, so the SB-leader futures lost. (Acuna 73 SB)
“oh yeah so we're talking new rules uh over on the arizona diamondbacks 74 and a half wins”
Diamondbacks finished 84-78 in 2023, over the 74.5-win total (ESPN standings). (84-78)
“My under, I'm going to go with [36:59] the Washington nationals under 59 and a half wins.”
Nationals finished 71-91 in 2023, well over the 59.5-win total, so the Nationals-under bet lost (ESPN standings). (71-91)
“As for my World Series prediction, [37:55] I agree with Sean on the Braves.”
The Braves were eliminated by the Phillies in the 2023 NLDS, and the Rangers won the 2023 World Series, so the Braves-to-win-the-World-Series future lost.
“Yeah, I like UConn here, too. I played them money line when this opened, and I think they're [15:28] going to advance.”
CONN 88, ARK 65 — UConn beat Arkansas 88-65 in the Sweet 16 (ESPN); the UConn moneyline bet cashes.
“But before we get to that, I know you bet on Florida Atlantic plus five and a half because I follow you in the Action Network app. Everybody should go download it. It's free. You can follow experts like Simon and Stucky. See you. what they're betting immediately if you follow them and get alerts. And so I'm able to get on FAU a plus five and a half when I see Stucky does it. Yeah, I like the owls here.”
FAU 62, TENN 55 — Florida Atlantic beat Tennessee 62-55 in the Sweet 16 (ESPN); FAU's outright win covers the +5.5 spread.
“But yeah, I like San Diego State here. I bet them plus seven and a half.”
SDSU 71, ALA 64 — San Diego State beat Alabama 71-64 in the Sweet 16 (ESPN); SDSU's outright win covers the +7.5 spread.
“give me some Chicago, all of the futures, but I like their division [6:52] odds at three to one.”
Detroit won the NFC North with a 12-7 record in the 2023 NFL season (Wikipedia/NFL results); the Bears future busts.
“It's a VCU team that has a star of their own, Ace Baldwin, at the guard position. He's a combo guard. He can facilitate. He can score. I think VCU is going to win this game outright. You can still get him plus four and a half, five at seven places in the market. But I'm going to go ahead and play him at about plus 175 on the money line.”
SMC 63, VCU 51 — Saint Mary's beat VCU 63-51 (ESPN); the VCU moneyline bet busts.
“So when you put it between not turning the ball over and not putting teams on the line, it's hard work to knock out the Blue Jays. And they're up against an NC State team that has some nice wins this year, but they're all at home. They've done absolutely nothing, zip zero, nada on the road or in neutral sites. And I think that's a bad recipe for the Wolfpack. So I'll go ahead and lay the five and a half. I'd love to get five. I think there's a chance maybe it'll go down to five in the market, but I would probably play it up to seven where it still has value.”
CREI 72, NCSU 63 — Creighton beat NC State 72-63 (ESPN); margin of 9 covers the -5.5 spread.
“I bet Kent State plus four and a half.”
IU 71, KENT 60 — Indiana beat Kent State 71-60 (ESPN); Kent State lost by 11, well outside the +4.5 cushion, so the bet busts.
“peterson and the perimeter weapons from usc michigan state ranks 320th in catch and shoot three-point defense so i see a lot of slashing kicking the ball out threes falling for usc as i mentioned i think they should be the favorite so i'm gonna go ahead and just play them at plus 105 plus 110”
MSU 72, USC 62 — Michigan State beat USC 72-62 (ESPN); the USC moneyline bet busts.
“i do like firman against virginia gives me similar vibes to Ohio in another 13 matchup two years ago who I loved against Virginia It probably my favorite bet over the past couple of years in the tournament and they ended up winning outright That game is at five and a half by the way Furman is plus five and a half”
FUR 68, UVA 67 — Furman upset Virginia 68-67 outright (ESPN); getting +5.5 as an underdog, Furman covers easily on the outright win.
“I just feel like he a lock for it So I actually bet this one It one of the few ones I already bet that at minus one I just think he the best guy in this category of everything he overcome And they put on such an amazing performance I just love Brendan Fraser in this spot”
Brendan Fraser won Best Actor for The Whale at the 95th Academy Awards (Wikipedia 95th Academy Awards).
“I think Banshees at plus 100 for best original screenplay. Everything Everywhere I think is minus 150 I can see Banshee winning it because everything everywhere is going to get so much attention Best supporting actor best actress best directors best picture Martin McDonough is so good. And I think he's so beloved amongst the writing community. And this is a brilliant movie this is a spot where you're getting a little bit of value at plus 100 i look i think that this is a really good bet to take you know it will be shocking to me if banshees comes away”
Everything Everywhere All at Once won Best Original Screenplay at the 95th Academy Awards; The Banshees of Inisherin did not win (Wikipedia 95th Academy Awards).
“Milwaukee Bucks plus 440 is a ridiculous price. That the best price on the board right now for the title”
The top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks were upset by the eighth-seeded Miami Heat in five games in the first round of the 2023 NBA playoffs, and did not win the title; the Denver Nuggets won the 2023 championship (Wikipedia 2023 NBA playoffs).
“uh you know i know that simon is already on anthony richardson i believe to go number one overall uh got that at a great number so i mean did you get that 100 to one was that where you bet it yeah i got a bunch of different numbers but like we always talk about the book's limit so the biggest bag down was 250 um at a book i can't name because we're not sponsored by him”
Carolina selected Bryce Young with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft; Anthony Richardson went No. 4 overall to Indianapolis (Wikipedia 2023 NFL draft results).
“But one thing I did, I gave it on the action app, was I bet Anthony Richards to be the first quarterback taken at 40 to 1.”
Bryce Young was the first quarterback taken in the 2023 NFL Draft, No. 1 overall to Carolina; Anthony Richardson went No. 4 overall to Indianapolis (Wikipedia 2023 NFL draft results).
“I got them 100-1 to win the Super Bowl”
SF 22, KC 25 (OT) — The Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LVIII, defeating the San Francisco 49ers 25-22 in overtime; the Chicago Bears did not reach or win the Super Bowl.
“The Broncos, I'm just going to grab now just because I think other pros are going to bet them. I just think the public might be off this one. The pros are going to like it. It's just a good team that now has a really good coach and they have an owner that wants to spend money. So these are all things I look at and shop around. Once again, I've seen a couple 45 to ones out there on Denver uh on certain books so it's FanDuel right now they're showing 35 to 1 I don't hate it I just think if you can find a 40 to 1 42 to 1 try to find that uh instead of taking 35 uh for the”
SF 22, KC 25 (OT) — The Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LVIII, defeating the San Francisco 49ers 25-22 in overtime; the Denver Broncos did not reach or win the Super Bowl.
“So I love D'Amico Ryan. I think he's a great coach. I'm excited for this Houston team. 300-1, Chad, longest shot bet of the offseason. We'll be talking about them a bunch coming up into this year. Just sitting here in February, I think you just take it. Just in case they do hit on the quarterback this will drop down to 200 Just in my opinion if they hit in the first round that how much a quarterback means in this league So I just going to take the value on Houston”
SF 22, KC 25 (OT) — The Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LVIII, defeating the San Francisco 49ers 25-22 in overtime; the Houston Texans did not reach or win the Super Bowl.
“pretty easy cause and effect there yeah i'm on the eagles on this one but i'm always looking okay how can I limit some of my outs by adding to the payout here? So here's how I'm going to play this. Give me the Eagles halftime plus full time. So I need to lead at the half. The tie will not do, but I'm going to lead at the half and win the game on the money line. Give me that at plus 160.”
The Eagles led 24-14 at halftime of Super Bowl LVII but lost the game 38-35 to the Chiefs, so leading-at-half-and-winning lost.
“Give me DeVonta Smith, Super Bowl MVP, plus 3,100.”
Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl LVII MVP, not DeVonta Smith.
“All right. I'm going to give you just two fun bets, two fun ones. I know you love the Anytime touchdowns. Simon, I think you're going to bet this one. Give me the Philadelphia defense to score a touchdown. Plus 750. Simon, you talked about high variance in the turnovers. We have 56 Super Bowls so far. 21 defensive touchdowns in the Super Bowl. 37.5% of touchdowns in the Super Bowl. We had at least one touchdown by defense in almost a third of the games. And 21 of those touchdowns, 20 of them scored by the winning team. So whoever you like in the Super Bowl, you should bet their defense to score an anytime touchdown. And it's going up to last 30 Super Bowls, 15 defensive touchdowns. That is one every two Super Bowls. We're getting this at plus 750. Is it because we got great defenses in the Super Bowl? Is it the extra week to prep on tendencies? is it just hey this is it go for broke put it all out there whatever it is i have to play that one”
No defensive or special teams touchdown was scored by the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII (none recorded for Philadelphia), so Eagles-defense-TD lost.
“But looking at this total, there's a bunch of reasons why I like the over. But the biggest one is I think there's going to be a lot of short fields because of turnovers. I think the Eagles, with that front line, they will be able to get to them. They will be able to turn over and vice versa. The Eagles, they're the kind of team that, yes, they've been smart with the ball. I think they're going to take more risk in this kind of match. We've seen teams in the Super Bowl, they take more risk, especially when you're playing against a guy like Mahomes. You can't really play it safe. So I just see a lot of short fields in this game, a lot of big plays with both sides of the ball where I know what people think. This Eagles defense is really good. So just looking at a couple of their big matchups, they played the Cowboys. Everyone remembers that Saturday game, Christmas Eve. Their defense gave up 40 points. They lost 40 to 34. You could say that was a fluke touchdown at the end. Remember that really crazy play. So you could take that away, but still over 30 points in an indoor game. The next time they played Green Bay, they won 40 to 33. So their defense gave up 33 points to Aaron Rodgers. You're just seeing a little bit of a trend here that when they play a good quarterback, Even week one. I mean, I remember Chad remembers that. Detroit indoors put up 35 points. I know that was a long time ago, but there's a thing where they're indoors. It's different than when they're outdoors at home. And that's when the Eagles defense has been so dominant. So this was an outdoor game. I honestly would have been all over that under. I think that would have been skewed towards both teams being towards the under. We already talked to Andrew Reid's history in the playoffs and the outdoor game. When his team was in it, he was 60% towards the under. But when he's indoors, it goes more towards the over, especially with Mahomes. So that my big thing here Chad is I just see both both offenses being very risky and taking big swings where he goes offense I do think they be smart They try to run the ball If Mahomes goes up at any point if he goes up seven or 14 points which historically in superbowls you see big swings like that teams go on little runs and other teams bounce back which that another prop we can talk about during the prop show um that's just something that happens in superbowl so i'm an under guy i mean we talk all the time i love taking under especially when the value is there i could easily flip if it hits 52 to the under but right now i got a mile of 51 and a half”
PHI 35, KC 38 — Kansas City beat Philadelphia 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII, a combined 73 points, well over the 51.5 total.
“I bet the under. I didn't get a good number. I got it at 49 and a half.”
PHI 35, KC 38 — Kansas City beat Philadelphia 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII, a combined 73 points, well over the 49.5 total, so the under lost.
“Yeah, so my favorite prop right now is actually for the Chiefs to call the first time out. You can get this around minus 105 right now.”
Philadelphia called the first timeout of the game (Timeout #1 by PHI at 1:33 remaining in the 2nd quarter), so Chiefs-to-call-first-timeout lost.
“Yes is over 10 to 1, so that there will be a safety in this game.”
No safety was scored in Super Bowl LVII (Chiefs 38, Eagles 35), so the 'Yes safety' prop lost.
“I actually love the idea of over two and a half players to throw a pass in this game.”
Only two players attempted a pass in the game, Patrick Mahomes (21/27, 182 yds) for Kansas City and Jalen Hurts (27/38, 302 yds) for Philadelphia, so Over 2.5 players to throw a pass lost.
“So I like the Jarrett McKinnon under eight and a half longest rush.”
Jerick McKinnon had 4 carries for 34 yards with a long rush of 14 yards, above the 8.5 line, so the under lost. (McKinnon 4 car, 34 yds, long 14)
“Well, I have to be on brand here and give you my favorite punter prop currently. And it's the Chiefs to have the longest gross punt in this game. You could get at minus 155, but the Chiefs have a massive edge here with Tommy Townsend.”
Chiefs punter Tommy Townsend's long punt was 50 yards while Eagles punter Arryn Siposs had a 57-yard long punt, so Chiefs-longest-gross-punt lost.
“I love the sacks in this one, so I'm not even going to give it out. If you want to do any type of over on sacks for the Eagles, over two and a half or total in the game which I believe it up to five and a half I just felt safer doing 2 at minus 150”
The Eagles recorded 0 team sacks in Super Bowl LVII (Mahomes was not sacked), so Eagles Over 2.0 sacks lost.
“So, to me, that's really weird that they're making a plus 150. I think it's just based off the low turnover through the air that Mahomes had this past season and hurts. So to me, I think it's an overreaction to the regular season where just for this one game, I like that position of taking that over. So interceptions over one and a half.”
There were zero interceptions thrown in Super Bowl LVII (0 for each team), so Total Interceptions Over 1.5 lost.
“Kerner, earlier in the week, I think last week, you had written that Miles Sanders plus 150 to lead the game in rushing was a prop that you liked. He was at 57.5 rushing yards. Now is it about 59.5. How do you currently have it graded? Because I do think – well, just answer that. How do you currently have it graded? Yeah, so I'm actually in line with his rushing prop. I have his median right around 58 and a half. But he has just a massive ceiling here. And that's kind of why I liked taking his, you know, prop to lead the game in rushing yards. I actually got it at plus 175.”
Miles Sanders rushed for 16 yards on 7 carries, well behind Isiah Pacheco's 76 rushing yards, so Sanders did not lead the game in rushing. (Sanders 16 rush yds (7 car) vs Pacheco 76 (15 car), Hurts 70 (15 car))
“I like Miles Sanders to lead the game in rushing.”
Miles Sanders rushed for 16 yards on 7 carries, well behind Isiah Pacheco's 76 rushing yards, so Sanders did not lead the game in rushing. (Sanders 16 rush yds (7 car) vs Pacheco 76 (15 car), Hurts 70 (15 car))
“I actually like Kenny Gainwell at 130 to one”
Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl LVII MVP (21/27, 182 yds, 3 TDs passing plus 44 rush yds), not Kenny Gainwell.
“I like Miles Sanders as MVP”
Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl LVII MVP, not Miles Sanders.
“And the Eagles are a team where I think a running back could win MVP. So give me a Miles Sanders at 25 to one.”
Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl LVII MVP, not Miles Sanders.
“I'm going to do Mahomes for $5 and I'm going to do Kelsey for $2.50.”
Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl LVII MVP, so Millman's Mahomes ticket cashed.
“Remember last year, Cooper Cupp, well, he was the top pass catcher, like top pass catcher. First of all, two of the last four winners have actually been pass catchers. And even if Cupp doesn't win last year, it's Tee Higgins that's going to win. So either way, a pass catcher would have won last year. Travis Kelsey 16-1, that cut close six to one last year. Travis Kelsey, 16 to one. He has a touchdown in 11 of his last 14 postseason games. He's got 90 plus in six of his last seven postseason games. So if the Chiefs win, there could be a situation where Mahomes, because of how good the Eagles defense is, Mahomes could throw for like 250, 260 with two touchdowns. Travis Kelsey could go for like 130 with both of those touchdowns. Who wins with the brother battle thing? Could be Kelsey. So I actually think if you like to, if you want a positive Chiefs bet, Travis Kelsey is a crazy good value. Well, I'm not just going to do Travis Kelsey. I'm going to do Mahomes and Travis Kelsey.”
Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl LVII MVP, not Travis Kelce.
“Yeah, I would say, you know, for everyone who wants like the one that is a really good chance to hit, again, Travis Kelsey has scored in his last five postseason games, 11 of his last 14 postseason games. He's got the whole brother narrative going on. I think minus 115 is still, it's like a little overvalued. I think his touchdown odds are just under 50-50 when you project it out. But like, when you consider just how much it goes up in the postseason, it's really tough to model that. So I think that's a really good play.”
Travis Kelce caught an 18-yard touchdown reception in Super Bowl LVII, so anytime touchdown won. (Kelce 18-yd receiving TD)
“Yeah, so this is a market where I do like a player like Quez Watkins. You can get him at plus 750. He's not a player I would invest in like the over on his receiving yards or something like that. I'm giving him a 25 to 30 percent chance he doesn't even catch a pass here. But he carries a ton of upside when it comes to catching long touchdowns. All three of his touchdowns this season have been on targets 20 plus yards downfield. So a game like this where the Eagles will probably more pass heavy because it's going to be a rare close potentially trailing game script. I think this is a time to invest in Watkins' ceiling. And if you look at Watkins' three touchdowns in 16 games, that's a fair price of plus 430. So I just think we're getting quite a bit of value here with Watkins at plus 750.”
Quez Watkins had 1 reception for 8 yards and no touchdown in Super Bowl LVII, so his anytime-TD prop lost. (Watkins 1 rec, 8 yds, 0 TD)
“the over. I would say me and my group came in pretty heavy on the over side. We moved it maybe half a point. Another really sharp group came in even heavier on the over. I think they've moved it now full point, up to 50 and a half. So I took my position on that at 49 and a half. I was hoping, I told you, I was hoping it would drop even more. It just wasn't going to. So I took that position.”
38-35 — Chiefs beat Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII; combined 73 points clears the 49.5 total, so Over 49.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I have no idea. I seriously don't. I like the under and I still do. I've betted a 51 since it hit there recently as well. I'm just against Simon here. Now, I understand what the theory is behind liking the over. My theory is this, Chiefs in the over, Eagles in the under. I just think that's the way it's... will progress as the game goes. So like, you know, there's ways to play combined parlays and things like that. I just feel like that's the approach, whether it's pressure, their pass defense, their offensive line, it's just all better units on Philly's side. But the one thing I will say, when it comes to injuries, Simon is also 100% correct. I am 20 times more worried about Hurts than I am Mahomes. We just saw Mahomes play. We saw what happened and he's got two weeks. We heard all that Kelsey news day of, man, absolutely nothing. He had seven catches. He probably should have had eight or nine in the games. So I think from an injury point of view, I am scared to death of Philly. And that's why, listen, I bet it at minus 115. I bet it at minus 120. That's what I got early.”
38-35 — Chiefs beat Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII; combined 73 points blows past the 51 total, so Under 51 busts (ESPN box score).
“I bet the under 49 and a half.”
38-35 — Chiefs beat Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII; combined 73 points blows past the 49.5 total, so Under 49.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“So early, early, early thoughts right now is I've made a decent amount of bets on this Eagles team. I've taken them, like Chad said, dropped to one and a half. I've just been, even today, even though I've been boozing, I'm clear headed enough that I've been making the text and making the calls just to get a nice starter amount on this Eagles team because that's the position I want to be on right now.”
38-35 — Chiefs beat Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII; Eagles lost outright (margin -3), missing the -1.5 spread, so Eagles -1.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“And then the big balls is Eagles minus two and a half.”
31-7 — Eagles beat 49ers 31-7 in the NFC Championship; Eagles margin +24 easily covers -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I going with the under 47 and a half for the Bengals and the Chiefs”
23-20 — Chiefs beat Bengals 23-20 in the AFC Championship; combined 43 points stays under the 47.5 total, so Under 47.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I bet Eagles minus two.”
31-7 — Eagles beat 49ers 31-7 in the NFC Championship; Eagles margin +24 easily covers -2 (ESPN box score).
“I bet over 45 and a half.”
31-7 — Eagles beat 49ers 31-7 in the NFC Championship; combined 38 points falls short of the 45.5 total, so Over 45.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“So early bet me and Chad would have been all over since he and the under I still like the under Still would take a position but obviously we wish it was still at 47 That such a key number It at 46 and a half right now Not ideal. But this is one of those where we'll really have a pick for it on Thursday. Like right now, me and Chad, if you want to make a bet with us, we're betting the under. Like already on the under.”
23-20 — Chiefs beat Bengals 23-20 in the AFC Championship; combined 43 points stays under the 46.5 total, so Under 46.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“big balls bet of the week Philadelphia Eagles minus 7.5 and I will do the same thing”
PHI 38, NYG 7 — Eagles beat Giants 38-7, a 31-point margin that covers PHI -7.5 (ESPN box score).
“So to me, the books are clearly taking a stand here on the Eagles. Me and Chad are taking a stand as well. And we might have a ton of egg on our face come next Tuesday when we come back on the show. Just because we already talked about all these little trends point to backing blindly just backing the Giants here. It's a good spot to back the best team ATS wise this season. So the people that are believers in them, they will be heavily rewarded. Me and Chad, who are believers in fate and public perception, getting value on a home favorite. And, you know, we're looking at this Eagles team that they're not even the favorite right now in the NFC. The rookie quarterback, Brock Purdy, in the 49ers team is. So that lets you kind of know all you need to know about the market and what it thinks of this Eagles team. I just think we're getting a good undervalued team where if this number was 10, yes, That'd be impossible for me and Chad to get off of the Giants. And then all of a sudden the Giants get blown up by 20. We look like idiots. But at the 7 it just it feels like it a good number Like this number should be closer to 8 eight and a half It seven seven and a half which I do think it the slimmest amount of value I just think because people are that sharp like that how smart these betters are They're not going to let it get down below that seven or seven and a half. So yeah, me and Chad are waiting for the seven. But if it doesn't get there, I got no issue betting the seven and a half.”
PHI 38, NYG 7 — Eagles beat Giants 38-7, a 31-point margin that covers PHI -7.5 (ESPN box score).
“Love the Bills. Obviously, I mean, you always like getting the best in the numbers. So I wish it stayed at four and a half, four. That was just a really nice key number. But I already talked about it. If you haven't gotten it, I'm still making bets at five and a half just because I think it will eventually get to six. We'll see. I mean, it hasn't touched six in any book yet, but it's holding right now five and a half. So maybe that's a resistance line of as soon as they touch six, the pros, I guess, come in heavy on the other side. But to me, I would take this up to five and a half with this Bills team.”
BUF 10, CIN 27 — Bengals beat Bills 27-10, a 17-point Bills loss that misses BUF -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“and in seven seconds he got down the field and kicked a field goal so I just it's hard for me to tell people to take the money line but I just I have to take this eight and a half with this Jags team but I will tell you I don't think that's the best bet in the game the best bet in the game”
KC 27, JAX 20 — Chiefs beat Jaguars 27-20, a 7-point Jaguars loss that stays inside JAX +8.5 (ESPN box score).
“Obviously, I'm going to take the Jags' money line as well”
KC 27, JAX 20 — Chiefs beat Jaguars 27-20 outright, so the Jaguars moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I believe this is a good number. My biggest bet is going to still be the under. I would still grab it now before it goes down below 45. But if you already got the 46 and a half or 46, just wait.”
SF 19, DAL 12 — 49ers beat Cowboys 19-12, a combined 31 points, under 46.5 (ESPN box score).
“So at no point when me and Chad were taking this three and a half, am I going to be sweating this? Unless they're getting blown out, obviously, then we're dead. We're dead in the water with Dallas. But if say Dallas is down 10 heading into the fourth quarter, I'm honestly not that scared. me and Chad are a touchdown away from covering this three and a half.”
SF 19, DAL 12 — 49ers beat Cowboys 19-12, a 7-point Cowboys loss that misses DAL +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I going with the Chiefs and Jags under 52 and a half”
KC 27, JAX 20 — Chiefs beat Jaguars 27-20, a combined 47 points, under 52.5 (ESPN box score).
“We're getting the Eagles team rested. Everyone I thought was going to come running in on that Eagles number when I was at seven. And they didn't. We saw early money came in on the seven on the Giants. And it's still up to seven and a half, which is nice to know the pros are backing us with the Eagles. but honestly, I knew going in that I was going to take them. It's just a nice spot for an Eagles team at home, well-rested, in that atmosphere.”
PHI 38, NYG 7 — Eagles beat Giants 38-7, a 31-point margin that covers PHI -7 (ESPN box score).
“Obviously, the Eagles made stops against that Giants offense, but it's hard for me to give up the under. That is what I bet. It was 48-and-a-half. I took the under.”
PHI 38, NYG 7 — Eagles beat Giants 38-7, a combined 45 points, under 48.5 (ESPN box score).
“Simon Says, under 46.5.”
SF 19, DAL 12 — 49ers beat Cowboys 19-12, a combined 31 points, under 46.5 (ESPN box score).
“So if you're able to, yes, grab that 4.5 with us. I just cannot see us being moved off the position. I'm going to be on the bills this week.”
BUF 10, CIN 27 — Bengals beat Bills 27-10, a 17-point Bills loss that misses BUF -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“Right now we've got a Bills minus 4.5 is the foxhole.”
BUF 10, CIN 27 — Bengals beat Bills 27-10, a 17-point Bills loss that misses BUF -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“it's interesting that we're talking about the bills you and i talked about it the other day we texted like that line was sitting at 12 and a half i still felt good about it at 12 and a half i bet it at 12 and a half i still feel good about it i think they might beat them by 30”
BUF 34, MIA 31 — Bills beat Dolphins 34-31, only a 3-point margin, well short of BUF -12.5 (ESPN box score).
“I not going to lie dude I just hit it again at 13 because I worried about going 13 and a half I was just like man this is a massive favorite Josh Allen his red zone turnovers this could be our Achilles heel here but I just kept thinking about this Bills team”
BUF 34, MIA 31 — Bills beat Dolphins 34-31, only a 3-point margin, short of BUF -13 (ESPN box score).
“Ravens defense you can follow in the action app I bet it at six and a half”
CIN 24, BAL 17 — Bengals beat Ravens 24-17, a 7-point Ravens loss that misses BAL +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“You want to break down the Ravens game? Well, we kind of did. Yeah, that's fair. I would just say to everyone, like, I'm still in on it. I'm still in on the eight and a half, but we obviously need Huntley.”
CIN 24, BAL 17 — Bengals beat Ravens 24-17, a 7-point Ravens loss that stays inside BAL +8.5 (ESPN box score).
“I still love the Jags and bet it again at two and a half”
JAX 31, LAC 30 — Jaguars beat Chargers 31-30 outright, covering JAX +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“Love the Bucks at two and a half”
TB 14, DAL 31 — Cowboys beat Buccaneers 31-14, a 17-point Bucs loss that misses TB +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“It feels easy when it's two and a half. So one of those, I bet early in the week at three, I've taken a little at two and a half, and now I've just been waiting,”
TB 14, DAL 31 — Cowboys beat Buccaneers 31-14, a 17-point Bucs loss that misses TB +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“The Giants and the Vikings and the Seahawks and the Niners. Yeah. Because everything in my body says bet the Niners at nine and a half. But there's something that is holding me back. You're a pro. Yeah. It's like it's the situation, the fact that it's going to be shitty weather. it's a rookie quarterback against a veteran quarterback even though it's first court first time in the playoffs for both the Seahawks are so undervalued the Seahawks the 49ers are so overvalued everything about this to me says I think I'm just going to stay away you can't it's the playoffs no that's fair I just think there's no I see no advantage either way yeah it's just tough where i do like i just gotta stay staunch in my belief that the league has figured out geno uh if you just look at his numbers towards the tail end of the season it was bad you look at the three quarterbacks he beat in this last half of the season it was john wilford baker mayfield and then whoever the backup was to arizona so the geno that's my biggest thing here where it's like if if he was playing really well coming into this it would be a no-brainer because it's literally like what chad's talking about which is giving a weird feeling of it's a divisional it's the third time they've seen each other they've already been swept which is like all the math backs out bank backing the team that just got swept now they play each other in the playoffs um but it's just that that geno factor where it's Like, Brock Purdy, I think he's going to get caught. Like, I mean, we haven't given our Super Bowl predictions here. But I do think he's eventually going to get caught. It's just – it's just – it's a lot to put on this kid's shoulders. I mean, in these games, I talked about it. If you go back and look, he's been not only flawless, he's just running a really smooth offense. Like, guys in his face, he always makes the right. read it's just been insane especially when i talked to like especially college pros who bet this kid and like because i know i honestly knew nothing really about him they they don't get it they're like dude if you watch him in college he had talent but this is like out of body experience right now for this kid so in this matchup where he has all the confidence in the world they're at home i'm gonna take it especially now it's under 10 i'm still gonna back it but um obviously like chad just said it's it's never a good feeling i know it's not just one or two pros it's a lot of pros that are backing the Seahawks in this spot. They like this position, but I still think this is the move here for me with the 49ers. So I'll be on 49ers first half. I'll be on 49ers first game, all game. It's just, it's just a spot I like to take them. Maybe next week I'll go against it,”
SF 41, SEA 23 — 49ers beat Seahawks 41-23, an 18-point margin that covers SF -9.5 (ESPN box score).
“i just take the vikings because i like them at home here”
MIN 24, NYG 31 — Giants beat Vikings 31-24 outright, so MIN -3 misses (ESPN box score).
“Simon says Jags plus one and a half.”
JAX 31, LAC 30 — Jaguars beat Chargers 31-30 outright, covering JAX +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“It's just a no-brainer to take the Bills here. hopefully you can grab a 10 I do think 10 is a key number”
BUF 34, MIA 31 — Bills beat Dolphins 34-31, a 3-point margin that misses BUF -10 (ESPN box score).
“Foxhole. We got the Ravens plus six and a half.”
CIN 24, BAL 17 — Bengals beat Ravens 24-17, a 7-point Ravens loss that misses BAL +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Exec decision Bucks plus two and a half.”
TB 14, DAL 31 — Cowboys beat Buccaneers 31-14, a 17-point Bucs loss that misses TB +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“let's talk about the broncos first broncos plus three and a half look we like the broncos plus three and a half at least i did uh on tuesday”
DEN 31, LAC 28 — Broncos beat Chargers 31-28 at home, covering the +3.5 spread outright with the win.
“Me and Chad loaded up on the Broncos at three and a half. [10:48] That line is completely flipped. [10:50] I will take the Chargers at three.”
DEN 31, LAC 28 — Broncos beat Chargers 31-28; Los Angeles lost by exactly 3, pushing the +3 spread.
“I go with our team Tennessee Give me plus six”
JAX 20, TEN 16 — Jaguars beat Titans 20-16; Tennessee lost by only 4, covering the +6 spread.
“I'm going with the Browns, plus two and a half.”
PIT 28, CLE 14 — Steelers beat Browns 28-14; Cleveland lost by 14, missing the +2.5 spread.
“14 is just a big number. It's too big of a number in the NFL. We're going with the Cardinals. Cardinals. Yeah, we got it, I guess. It's the last week of the year, and this is just a massive number.”
SF 38, ARI 13 — 49ers beat Cardinals 38-13; Arizona lost by 25, well short of the +14 they needed.
“[10:39] This is exactly what me and Chad take the Titans and the Titans somehow pull up some miracle ups. [10:43] So I do think the Jaguars will win, but I think this comes down to a last second possession. [10:48] So six and a half, we'll take the number.”
JAX 20, TEN 16 — Jaguars beat Titans 20-16; Tennessee lost by only 4, covering the +6.5 spread.
“People are just going to bet this plus three because it's going to be this Colts team. I mean, who's going to be taking the minus three? It feels like the Bucs last week. So not going to make this my Simon says, but as we sit here right now, I've already bet the minus two and a half. I just can't help myself.”
HOU 32, IND 31 — Texans beat Colts 32-31 on the road; Indianapolis lost outright, missing the -2.5 spread.
“Browns visiting the Steelers. Cleveland plus two and a half. Yeah, exactly. Like me and Chad don't have a choice. We have to take Cleveland.”
PIT 28, CLE 14 — Steelers beat Browns 28-14; Cleveland lost by 14, missing the +2.5 spread.
“and that the Rams this week on the road, six and a half at Seattle. Have to do it. Have to do it.”
SEA 19, LAR 16 — Seahawks beat Rams 19-16 in overtime; Los Angeles lost by only 3, covering the +6.5 spread.
“the denver broncos plus three and a half at home against the titans what are we gonna i mean against”
DEN 31, LAC 28 — Broncos beat Chargers 31-28 at home, covering the +3.5 spread outright with the win.
“I will be all over that Giants money line playing spoiler in this game. I love it.”
PHI 22, NYG 16 — Eagles beat Giants 22-16; New York lost outright, busting the moneyline.
“So I'll hear what the boys are saying, Chad, but I already bet it. [44:01] I'm in on Detroit. [44:02] As soon as they hit 4.5, I bet it.”
GB 16, DET 20 — Lions beat Packers 20-16 outright, covering the +4.5 spread.
“Are they four and a half better? Then Houston, a team that's had their numbers over these last couple years, even when Houston was terrible. No. So, yeah. Give me Houston, Chad.”
JAX 31, HOU 3 — Jaguars beat Texans 31-3; Houston lost by 28, well short of the +4.5 they needed.
“Simon says Vikings plus three and a half.”
GB 41, MIN 17 — Packers beat Vikings 41-17; Minnesota lost by 24, missing the +3.5 they needed.
“For me, the bill's minus one and a half.”
The Bills-Bengals game was suspended in the first quarter after Damar Hamlin's on-field cardiac arrest and never resumed; ESPN lists the game as canceled/no contest, and sportsbooks voided undecided spread, total, and moneyline wagers.
“All right, then let's go with the Bucs at minus three. Perfect. Big balls, bet of the week. Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus three. Just to recap for people right now,”
TB 30, CAR 24 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 30-24; Tampa Bay won by 6, covering the -3 spread.
“Give me Jets minus two, whatever it is.”
SEA 23, NYJ 6 — Seahawks beat Jets 23-6; New York lost by 17, missing the -2 they were laying.
“Chad Millman has decided he's going with the Broncos plus 12 and a half.”
KC 27, DEN 24 — Chiefs beat Broncos 27-24; Denver lost by only 3, covering the +12.5 spread.
“Early in the week, we talked about Miami at plus three if it got there. any strong feelings on that game that line is currently at plus three oh chad we don't have a choice another game we don have a choice we bet teddy teddy covers as a dog we just bet him we take the plus three”
NE 23, MIA 21 — Patriots beat Dolphins 23-21; Miami lost by only 2, covering the +3 spread.
“We like the Texans plus four.”
JAX 31, HOU 3 — Jaguars beat Texans 31-3; Houston lost by 28, well short of the +4 they needed.
“Jets, two and a half point favorites on the road at Seattle. Got to take the Jets.”
SEA 23, NYJ 6 — Seahawks beat Jets 23-6; New York lost by 17, missing the -2.5 they were laying.
“Simon says was Eagles plus five and a half.”
DAL 40, PHI 34 — Cowboys beat Eagles 40-34; Philadelphia lost by 6, failing to cover +5.5 (ESPN).
“It's my executive decision. When we talked about it earlier in the week, you were like, if you're not going to make it your exact decision, then it's going to be my Simon Says. I love the Colts at four. it doesn't matter to me who's playing quarterback”
LAC 20, IND 3 — Chargers beat Colts 20-3 on Monday Night Football; Indianapolis lost by 17, failing to cover +4 (ESPN).
“more human. Let's talk about the Colts for two seconds. It's my executive decision. When we talked about it earlier in the week, you were like, if you're not going to make it your exact decision, then it's going to be my Simon Says. I love the Colts at four. it doesn't matter to me who's playing quarterback yeah obviously my biggest issue is the fact that he hasn't been with the first team like that like brock purdy that was a big deal this kid had first team not first team but second team reps all summer because he had garoppolo holding out and then in as soon as trey lance went down he was back in the training camp back practicing with the team again brock purdy nick foals had the opposite of that they literally shunned him they They had him not in the facility all the offseason. Then when they did bring him back, like, yeah, we'll put you on their practice squad and do whatever with you, make our third stringer. What the hell was that kid's name, Sam Ellinger? Ellinger? Ellinger, yeah. He's behind him. They had him behind him. The disrespect. So I love Nick. I know exactly what I'm getting from Nick. He is the ultimate gamer. This is the kind of guy you want to have in this game. So, yes, I will be taking the five. Guys, I will not be shocked if we get a total egg laid by Nick Foles here”
LAC 20, IND 3 — Chargers beat Colts 20-3 on Monday Night Football; Indianapolis lost by 17, failing to cover +5 (ESPN).
“Big balls, bet of the week. Washington Commanders plus seven.”
SF 37, WSH 20 — 49ers beat Commanders 37-20; Washington lost by 17, failing to cover +7 (ESPN).
“do you want to talk about the Washington game yeah because to me that might feel like a big balls that is the big ball better the week kicking myself I didn't make that our Simon Says or Foxville because seven and a half, it felt like that was going to disappear. And it did. I mean, it was a second. Yeah, you could maybe find it, but I could just see this number going to six and a half. And that's exactly what it should be in this matchup where, yes, the 49ers are the cream of the crop. They're one of the better teams in football. But Washington's also a playoff team. And we've seen them kind of rally in these games where them losing by eight points, whatever that was against the Giants. That's like a blowout for Washington. them. They just this whole year, they've just been in these really close games. And we've seen his whole career Shanahan at home is a big favorite struggles like for some reason that when he struggles And it always kind of been that way so not surprising that this is going to be a pros versus joes i mean the public is going to be all over the 49ers this is one of the most teased teams this week it's one of the most money line bet teams this week shock to no one i love this game as an upset just a total out of nowhere everyone's off washington after a bad prime time game people are all in on the 49ers they are I mean, they probably are now the most bad team over the Eagles. Peak Niners. Yeah, just because Hurts got hurt, I feel like people are going to come in now on the Niners because that gives them a little bit more confidence, which is fair to me. Like, if Hurts is out for five weeks, he doesn't play until the first time he's in the playoffs. That's a huge deal. So it makes sense for all the love of the 49ers, but this is the exact time this team has a letdown game. So I wish we had the 7.5, would take it down to 6.5. So I feel like you can grab the seven right now. That's perfect for the big balls bet of the week. Pros, Joe, as you said, it's 65% of the bets on the Niners, 73% of the money on the Commanders. Right. I think you made a really good point. Kyle Shanahan, as a big favorite at home, is almost an auto fade. And I don't have the exact ATS record in front of me. It doesn't matter. I can say blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. I believe Chase Young's coming back too this week. This is a coach who when his teams have big leads, we've seen it, and are big favorites, his decision making tends to get a little more conservative. Brilliant offensively, everyone knows I'm like a Kyle Shanahan stan, right? I love the guy. I think he's brilliant. But this is an Achilles heel for him, these spots. Also, it's a low total. And I think when you have low totals at 38, 38 and a half, and you have a relatively high side, in this case a touchdown or more, the books are basically telegraphing take the underdog because they're expecting the big money on the favorite. So – and that's the big bets on the favorite. And that's what we're seeing here. Big balls, bet of the week. Washington Commanders plus seven.”
SF 37, WSH 20 — 49ers beat Commanders 37-20; Washington lost by 17, failing to cover +7 (ESPN).
“Give me the Panthers plus two and a half.”
CAR 37, DET 23 — Panthers beat Lions 37-23; Carolina won by 14, covering +2.5 (ESPN).
“The more I look at it, the more it feels like they're on the right side. I think some of the money is reflective of, the line opened at five and a half. I got it at five and a half on Tuesday.”
MIA 20, GB 26 — Packers beat Dolphins 26-20; Green Bay won outright, covering +5.5 (ESPN).
“I would take the Bears, but I got them at nine and a half.”
BUF 35, CHI 13 — Bills beat Bears 35-13; Chicago lost by 22, failing to cover +9.5 (ESPN).
“Moneyline, round robin. Patriots, Panthers, Commanders, Eagles, Packers.”
Moneyline round robin: Patriots ML lost (Bengals won 22-18), Panthers ML won (beat Lions 37-23), Commanders ML lost (49ers won 37-20), Eagles ML lost (Cowboys won 40-34), Packers ML won (beat Dolphins 26-20) — 2 of 5 legs won (ESPN).
“Patriots plus three and a half. We're going to the foxhole.”
CIN 22, NE 18 — Bengals beat Patriots 22-18; New England lost by 4, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN).
“If you want to make it a Simon Says, go ahead. But it doesn't feel like a Simon Says. To me, the spirit of Simon Says is you've got to bet it right now because the line is going to move. I do think this could move, though. Like, pros are going to be all over this. But, yeah, let's just make it a foxhole then. You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team. I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy. Jeez, I fucking hate this. I fucking hate this game. I know. No, it's awful. I have more confidence in this than I did with the Bucs last week. where like the Bucs, I couldn't see the roadmap and the number didn't make sense, but this number does. Like I literally have this number at three. Like last week with the Bucs game, I couldn't touch it because we said all the time, why is this number not six? And that just spooked me, just a weird number. This number makes sense. Like Cincy, yes, they're very good. They also have weaknesses, and some of those weaknesses can be exploited by a Patriots team that's desperate. So it just feels like I hate to be like, oh, this is such a smart play. This really does feel like a smart number. Like you just take this number and one of those games, if you can't handle it, just don't watch it because it's not going to be fun. Patriots plus three and a half. We're going to the foxhole. Let's go.”
CIN 22, NE 18 — Bengals beat Patriots 22-18; New England lost by 4, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN).
“Right now, our foxhole is Pats plus three and a half. Our Simon Says is Eagles plus five and a half. I did not see any sixes available.”
DAL 40, PHI 34 — Cowboys beat Eagles 40-34; Philadelphia lost by 6, failing to cover +5.5 (ESPN).
“The Indianapolis Colts will be my executive decision. Colts plus four.”
LAC 20, IND 3 — Chargers beat Colts 20-3 on Monday Night Football; Indianapolis lost by 17, failing to cover +4 (ESPN).
“but their team that gets caught in these big spreads and that's what the books keep doing they keep hanging big numbers the public are happy to do it they're happy to bet them they're happy to throw them in teasers and we keep getting free points here chad so this number should probably be seven and a half i mean like you just said fan duel it's eight and a half shop around it's nine and a half so hopefully it grows nine and a half everywhere and maybe even 10 that'd be amazing because we didn't even talk about it. This is going to be a freezing game. They're calling for minus 11-degree weather. Josh Allen, he's incredible. We just saw the Bills give up 200 yards to Miami on the ground. That's what the Bears want to do. They want to run the ball. We saw them run last week all over the Eagles, and it's the same thing with this matchup. A lot of things just point to this Bears game Does it feel a little too easy a little bit Chad I not going to lie to you We had two weeks now where you know Denver the week before was the biggest bet team as a big dog That covered Last week the Bears were the most bet team against the Eagles. That covered. So the pros, they've been over, we've been all over these big spreads at home. Can't avoid it. It's just such a big number. I just can't not take this number.”
BUF 35, CHI 13 — Bills beat Bears 35-13; Chicago lost by 22, failing to cover +9.5 (ESPN).
“Packers are the Dolphins. By the way, Matt Mitchell reminds us we're on to the Sunday afternoon games, beginning with the Packers and the Dolphins. No joke. 11 a.m. this morning, this line was at five and a half. I bet it at five and a half. It is at four and a half, and it is falling so fast. And if it had stayed at five and a half, it 100% would have been my executive decision. I still like it at four and a half. Yeah, I still like it a lot at four and a half.”
MIA 20, GB 26 — Packers beat Dolphins 26-20; Green Bay won outright, covering +5.5 (ESPN).
“dying to get to commanders plus seven against the niners is not one of them really you don't like that i like the commanders in the game yeah it's the right side like you're like the niners are so overinflated right now when he's a big favorite chanahan you always fade him yeah this is the move i'm with the commanders i think everyone just has a little bit of a bad taste in their mouth of them even i bet you the luck rink is will come out this will be one of the bigger ones the corner has been very lucky oh my god it's gotta be yeah so seven and a half like i'll be on the commanders maybe i'll be able to talk and talk chatting to be one of our five but there's just a lot of dogs i like this week so i get if it's not one of our five but seven and a half that's hard to pass on”
SF 37, WSH 20 — 49ers beat Commanders 37-20; Washington lost by 17, failing to cover +7.5 (ESPN).
“All right. Let's get back to the show. Raiders, Steelers. Steelers, three-point favorites, getting the money too, by the way. That's me. I'm on it. It's one of these games I bet early in the week when it was opened at one. It opened at one. So you bet it at one. It went to two bet it two and a half bet it Nah I just waiting The public will come in on the Raiders and hopefully they get me back down at two and a half”
PIT 13, LV 10 — Steelers beat Raiders 13-10; Pittsburgh won by 3, covering -1 (ESPN).
“No, this would be an easy pick. It's always scary to us to do it on a Thursday. On Thursday. Because I hit that 0-1-1 heading into Sunday. but i'm trying to convince myself it's all good chad because we can either we can do a pick on saturday anyway so i'm trying to chin zone it so it's like we should end up on this game you know what i think we got to do it all right let's do it we're gonna put it in is it three and a half yeah yeah i'll be three and a half definitely okay so people listening know that we're putting seattle in i'll put it in the app under the phase five um so you'll see that we put that pick in uh”
SF 21, SEA 13 — 49ers beat Seahawks 21-13 on Thursday Night Football; Seattle lost outright, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN).
“The Bears do not have, the Bears are playing a JV defense right now. yeah they're awful but it's the game changer of fields and i'm not gonna lie to you when i saw that he had illness and wasn't practicing this week not ideal we got a guy who's a vegan who's got apparently some type of flu or maybe it's a stomach bug i don't know what he's sick with but he's sick he's missed i think two practices now not ideal especially the fact that i've already bet this damn game i bet the nine and a half bet the nine um because i did think this was going to go down to eight eight and a half for the next couple days but you just touched on it”
PHI 25, CHI 20 — Eagles beat Bears 25-20; Chicago lost by 5, covering +9.5 (ESPN).
“And let me remind people, you mentioned foxhole. Bears plus nine is our foxhole.”
PHI 25, CHI 20 — Eagles beat Bears 25-20; Chicago lost by 5, covering +9 (ESPN).
“But I do love it. I feel like we're getting such good value here on Jacksonville. But I get where they're coming from. Oh, it's going to be one of the five, brother. Oh. Here the thing Oh God It the value If this game was three we wouldn be having this conversation But how is it four and a half Look the Cowboys have injuries on their offensive line”
JAX 40, DAL 34 — Jaguars beat Cowboys 40-34 in OT; Jacksonville won outright, easily covering +4.5 (ESPN).
“Bears plus nine is Foxhole. Simon says Jags plus four and a half. Exec decision, Colts plus four. Big balls, Washington minus four and a half. Scooch roulette, Simon, Washington minus four and a half. Chad is on the Jags plus four and a half for Scooch roulette.”
JAX 40, DAL 34 — Jaguars beat Cowboys 40-34 in OT; Jacksonville won outright, easily covering +4.5 (ESPN).
“Bears plus nine is Foxhole. Simon says Jags plus four and a half. Exec decision, Colts plus four. Big balls, Washington minus four and a half. Scooch roulette, Simon, Washington minus four and a half.”
NYG 20, WSH 12 — Giants beat Commanders 20-12; Washington lost outright, failing to cover -4.5 (ESPN).
“we have Jacksonville plus 750 to win the AFC South and we love it Even better I got like 13 14 to 1 We taking it in May and June I all in on it”
The Jaguars won the AFC South (9-8), clinching the division title over the Titans (7-10) at season's end (ESPN standings).
“simon says um because it was going to be my exact decision but you pulled it first so i'm doing jags plus four and a half our money line round robin i would do jags this has been anyone listening i've i've way lowered my bets every week we've just been not us particularly but just football in general the dogs have not been winning outright they've been covering but our win weight went right went way down uh for out for underdogs outright so just don be don be going as crazy as we were earlier in the year on these Moneyline Round Robins Jags Colts Colts Raiders Yeah, okay, that's fair. I mean, what are you going to do? You're not going to put the Bears in there. No. Let's go with Tennessee. And we got to go ballsy on this last one, this big one. Got to go with Miami. Interesting. Got to get weird with it.”
Moneyline round robin: Jaguars ML won (beat Cowboys 40-34 OT), Colts ML lost (Vikings won 39-36 OT), Raiders ML won (beat Patriots 30-24), Titans ML lost (Chargers won 17-14), Dolphins ML lost (Bills won 32-29) — 2 of 5 legs won (ESPN).
“But the biggest one is I make this line two. It's three and a half just because of what we just talked about. the Seahawks, they laid in a complete egg while the 49ers completely blew out a team. You're getting free points here. It's another week of you just have to kind of take these free points. The fact that's an island game, we know the public is going to be pounding the 49ers. I'm grabbing a three and a half now just in case it does drop and the pros take it, but you should be able to get value. I just see the public coming in so heavy on the 49ers here that if everyone's fully healthy, if it's just Debo that's out, this number should be closed at three and a half so i'd grab it now just to be safe because it does drop to three but i do feel like i'll close at three and a half well i'm glad you put a number on it as in it should be rated a two it's a buy low sell buy low sell high right like brock purdy was nearly perfect”
SF 21, SEA 13 — 49ers beat Seahawks 21-13 on Thursday Night Football; Seattle lost outright, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN).
“I want to go with the Colts plus four.”
MIN 39, IND 36 — Vikings beat Colts 39-36 in OT; Indianapolis lost by 3, covering +4 (ESPN).
“I understand where they're coming from, that they want to back the team that wins close games, but that's kind of why I want to take the Colts. Like even if the Vikings win, which we got no issue with it, we're getting four points. That's a big deal in these kind of matchups. So don't know if it'll be one of my best five, but I do like the value right now sitting there on the Colts. Also by the way this is a top three luck rankings matchup in favor of the Colts And the luck rankings this year, we've talked about on the show constantly. If you are getting a luck ranking differential of about, let me look it up exactly here. Hold on. I apologize. If you get a luck ranking differential of 10 plus points, the ROI on that, they're covering at a 57% clip, 16 plus points, 59% clip. The luck ranking differential in this game, which essentially is saying how can you quantify regression? The luck ranking differential in this game is 26. So just bet the Colts. All right? Just do it. Lock it in.”
MIN 39, IND 36 — Vikings beat Colts 39-36 in OT; Indianapolis lost by 3, covering +4 (ESPN).
“Are we hopping on in the foxhole? Well, listen, you only love the Eagles, and you can't see straight unless – so I'm happy to jump in the foxhole. I was going to make this an ED, but do you want to get in the foxhole? Let's get in the fucking foxhole. Let's put the Bears at plus nine in the goddamn foxhole.”
PHI 25, CHI 20 — Eagles beat Bears 25-20; Chicago lost by 5, covering +9 (ESPN).
“half i did so of course we're going to bet the bears a plus nine yeah i don't know if i'll have”
PHI 25, CHI 20 — Eagles beat Bears 25-20; Chicago lost by 5, covering +9 (ESPN).
“And the Cowboys have a lot of injuries in the back end of their defensive secondary. Give me this game at home. I like the matchup. I just do. I really, really do. I'm going to have to make the Simon Says because I'm looking at a four and a half right now. I could see a drop in a four over the next day or two. So I'm making Simon Says. Simon Says. When Simon Says do it we do what Simon Says Simon Says Jags four and a half Wow That came out of nowhere Well I was just thinking now and I was like”
JAX 40, DAL 34 — Jaguars beat Cowboys 40-34 in OT; Jacksonville won outright, easily covering +4.5 (ESPN).
“to love so many games here. The Dallas Cowboys are on the road. They are four and a half point favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars. I love the Jags here. Yeah, we're screwed. Of course we love them. We're going to bet this. We're going to lose money on it. It's just the way the world works for us this season. I just love this Jaguars team. We're finally seen these last couple weeks exactly what we saw coming into the season of trevor lawrence being that guy taking that next step it took a while it took a while for him to get comfortable in doug's system we've seen it these last couple weeks so he is finally comfortable this team is really potent on offense when he's got everything going so you know chad i just i feel bad because people are getting so scarred from our love with the jaguars oh yeah i completely understand it because even last week they might have been down seven nothing whatever it was and i was just cursing myself saying why do I keep betting this Jaguars team but the Trevor Lawrence effect man he's so talented there's just certain throws he makes you're just like man this kid has all the tools to be good in this sport so Chad and I we might be buying high on the Jaguars here after the biggest biggest win of the year against the Titans now coming home and we're selling on a Cowboys team that they just had their worst game of the year against the They definitely should have lost. The Texans just can't beat – they can't put teams away, and they let Dallas hang around. Dallas able to steal that game. But my concern here is just what it was a couple weeks ago. I talked about Dak. I just – I don't like what I've seen from Dak. Dak doesn't look comfortable. He hasn't looked right all season. That's why I don't take them serious come playoff time. I'd still put the 49ers over them, even with this seventh-round quarterback. It's just – it's the Dak effect. He just doesn't make the plays like he used to. He doesn't run out of the pocket like he used to. He doesn't make the smart reads like he used to. I don't know what's going on deck. It's just something, something's different with him this year. Something's wrong. And he's already struggled in his whole career in the playoffs. To me, that's just going to inflate come playoff time. So, me and Chad are probably going to have, I'm not going to lie, we're probably going to have this as one of our five. Like, I really do like this number against a Dallas team that, sure, they might be able to put up points and run the ball. I just don't see their defense really slowing down this Jaguars offense. They just have a lot clicking for them right now. So, yeah, good matchup for this Jaguars team. What I like about this right now, the last six weeks since week nine, Trevor Lawrence, according to Pro Football Focus, second highest rated passer in the NFL. He's got 10 touchdowns, no picks. Early in the year when we love the Jags, they were not converting in the red zone. And the problem wasn't the play calling. it was Trevor Lawrence and I'm no football I'm not like a football analyst but I watch more than the average person he was throwing these balls that had no touch and were super flat in the red zone and you could see that's evolving especially in that game against the Titans you also saw him running against the Titans he had a great bootleg to score a touchdown against the Titans and the One thing I'll say is that their offensive line is really good. Top five against pressure in the NFL. And so that mitigates Dallas's strength, which is rushing the passer. And the Cowboys have a lot of injuries in the back end of their defensive secondary. Give me this game at home. I like the matchup. I just do. I really, really do.”
JAX 40, DAL 34 — Jaguars beat Cowboys 40-34 in OT; Jacksonville won outright, easily covering +4.5 (ESPN).
“This is as low as it gets behind the Titans. And this is the worst they've looked all year, right? They... Who did they play before the Eagles? I don't remember who they played, but I'm pretty sure they lost. Then they get absolutely dominated by the Eagles. And they actually get dominated here by the Jaguars. Oh, man. That's the fear here, Chad, where it's like the Titans, they are kind of reverting back to what they were early in the season of this team that we thought were going to just be bad, right? They lost a lot of key positions on offense. Their defense was struggling. And Vrabel kind of righted the ship during the middle of the season. They've reverted back to it a little bit here these last couple of weeks. But how can we not? This is what we do against the Chargers. We take the dog, especially if it's at three. So got to hold your nose and take the Titans here at plus three. Done. Millman did it while we were talking. He saw the three on the board. It's plus three minus 118 at FanDuel. Thank you, FanDuel. Yep. Quick slipped it. Quick slipped it. For those who are listening, if you're in a legal state, go into your action app. Pick the game you want. Quick slip it immediately to FanDuel. You don't have to go into the FanDuel app. Look for the game. You get the bet slip right there, punch in your bet. It's super easy. One of these next two games will be my executive decision,”
LAC 17, TEN 14 — Chargers beat Titans 17-14; Tennessee lost by exactly 3, pushing on +3 (ESPN).
“So got to hold your nose and take the Titans here at plus three.”
LAC 17, TEN 14 — Chargers beat Titans 17-14; Tennessee lost by exactly 3, pushing on +3 (ESPN).
“talk about the lions for a second let's talk about the broncos and the chiefs because they loved that number yeah hit me with uh the trend you heard yeah so what's funny is like you do these shows on amp and people are listening now we know we know that we have an audience that likes betting we know that when you listen on amp you like betting even more so what was interesting was that game when we started talking about it on tuesday was at nine and a half before i was done talking about it, it was at nine. Now, it's been back up to nine Of course I got That could be part of the sudden injury right I think Sutton got put out So yeah that could be part of it Could be. But, of course, I got nervous on Tuesday. As soon as I saw it going on, I hit it at 9.”
KC 34-28 DEN — Chiefs beat Broncos 34-28; Denver +9 covers on a 6-point loss (ESPN box score).
“that game when we started talking about it on tuesday was at nine and a half before i was done talking about it, it was at nine. Now, it's been back up to nine Of course I got That could be part of the sudden injury right I think Sutton got put out So yeah that could be part of it Could be. But, of course, I got nervous on Tuesday. As soon as I saw it going on, I hit it at 9. Now it's a 9-1, which sucks. I think the same is true of the Giants and the Broncos. They're playing teams that have been so dominant this year that you get to the end of the year and the flaws are pasted over a little bit. And so you know the inflation is going to be so high from the books that you almost automatically have to bet the other side because the books are expecting the public to come in. And I think with the Broncos specifically, we talked about this, Patrick Mahomes is so dominant at the end of the year, the numbers get so big they become impossible to cover and that's what's happened to him like he's under 500 against the spread um you know so in this spot and so um still love the broncos yeah this is a game sadly i've been losing sleep over it i just like i woke up and i swept the other night about it um i almost had a really weird intention but i literally woke up and just just like why am i betting the broncos and it's the same thing i had last week but it's it's the right spot to take it so the the game doesn't really scare me as much as that the fear is going to be will the broncos be able to move the ball and i believe they will i think the chiefs they could still be run on and that's what the broncos be able to do yeah am i worried that sudden's out that's kind of a big deal but at the same time he hasn't really done that much this year how much worse can they get right so to me jerry judy he's been the weapon so So I felt confidence that the fact that the pros were on it, I knew they'd be on it, though. It's a divisional home dog, bigger than a seven. Yeah, I'm with you, Chad. They're not as bad as they've looked. But Russell Wilson actually might be. He really might be this bad. So this is one of these bets where I'm kind of betting mainly on the defense and trusting this offense will be able to start moving the ball against the Chiefs defense. It's just young. They just have young pieces in the secondary. We've seen teams want to run the ball on them of late. So one of those games where if Russ had just shown me anything last couple of weeks, this would be one of my bigger bets, but it won't be just because of that. So for this week, if me and Chad play five, this would be one of the five. No doubt No brainer Automatically locked in kind of game just because I have to play this spot every time and have to take this number every time”
KC 34-28 DEN — Chiefs beat Broncos 34-28; Denver +9.5 covers on a 6-point loss (ESPN box score).
“bet. So we did the Broncos. We're going to do it again this week. The Giants, I still think you made the best point on Tuesday. Jalen Hurts just isn't the same quarterback on the road. And then, you know, talking about Action Network Pod and Stucky and Raybon, Stucky had a really good point this morning. Since 2020, the Eagles on the road are the worst team in the NFL against the spread. And that's when Jalen Hurts became a starter late in the year. So this is a team, you look back at their schedule, their only good win on the road is against the Lions in week one. Barely beat the Colts Cowboys Cooper Rush Carson Wentz led Washington They beat the Texans but they beat them by double digits but it was a late double digit sort of front door cover yeah they didn cover it was it for that right the Texans covered that's right that's right so um just not a very good team on the road yeah and that was honestly the part of it another part of it was just the fact that we talked about that's lines inflated because they just beat the crap out of Tennessee like four and a half five just made sense for this divisional matchup yes the eagles are superior team but in divisional games like this especially in december teams really just know exactly exactly what each other want to do and that's going to be this that's going to be what the giants are going to be so well preparing for this game it's like they've played against this scheme now with sirianni for two years now or three years so they are i guess two years but they just know exactly what the scheme is going to do so looking at the game i love it at seven the six and a half does definitely give you pause because that's moving to another key number. I'd still take it. But you have sevens out there. So just make sure you grab that.”
PHI 48-22 NYG — Eagles beat Giants 48-22; New York +7 lost outright and against the spread (ESPN box score).
“I had that same feeling here with the Chargers. I just have no doubt the Chargers were able to move the ball against Miami defense. And for the offensive side, yes, I know the Chargers have struggled against the run, but I can see them being able to get pressure against two in this game. And you factor in Waddle might miss this game as well as their Armstead at the tackle position. Two major injuries. Those are two Pro Bowl players for this Miami team. Two guys that are the reason they have the record they do now. So, man, if both those guys are out, this would be a Noah Branger play. But already love it. If you're getting the three and a half, you just have to grab it. It's a big home dog. Numbers should be closer to two or one. It's just going to be inflated just because the Chargers have disappointed people so much this year. People expect Tua and Miami to bounce back. this kind of feels like not for their season but it does i think it's for the charger season the charges know they can't drop this game i believe they're 500 right now they need this game to stay in that wild card contention so both teams equally as desperate give me the bigger dog at three and a half uh reminder for people just because i love using it i'm in a legal state i went into the action network app i picked the chargers plus three and a half quick slipped it directly to FanDuel, opened up a bet slip for me. I put my bet in, I tapped, done. It took me 15 seconds.”
LAC 23-17 MIA — Chargers beat Dolphins 23-17, covering as +3.5 underdogs (ESPN box score).
“i went into the action network app i picked the chargers plus three and a half quick slipped it”
LAC 23-17 MIA — Chargers beat Dolphins 23-17, covering as +3.5 underdogs (ESPN box score).
“I know the Browns are the right play here. This is a great number in a divisional game. They are not that much worse than this Cincinnati team is. This line's inflated just because Cincinnati right now is a darling NFL. I mean, Joe Burrow, he's what, top three now in MVP votes? He's just – the hype is hitting that point. So, just looking at this matchup, it's like, yeah, you have to take the Browns. But my issue is Watson. I just – I do not know what I get from him. He sure as hell is not getting two defensive touchdowns and a kick return this week against Cincinnati's defense. I mean, they're good. So, yeah, don't really know what to do with it, Chad. but I already bet the six. I'm going to have to bet the six and a half now that's hit six and a half, but it's hard to convince myself to put this as one over five,”
CIN 23-10 CLE — Bengals beat Browns 23-10; Cleveland +6 lost outright and against the spread (ESPN box score).
“the second game back are visiting the Cincinnati Bengals. You know how I feel about the Bengals. Three weeks in a row on the Bengals, on the bangles, on the bangles, made a my exact decision last week. I just think Joe Burrow is so special, really manages the game. And I don't mean that in a pejorative way. He just understands the flow and the rhythm and is unafraid in the moments where you cannot show fear. What's interesting about this game, 85% of the bets are on the bangles at minus six. The money is relatively split. So what that's telling me is that wise guys are coming in on the Browns at plus six. And I kind of buy it. I don't bet the Browns here. People are going to notice a theme. Me and Chad, we had a couple of favorites we loved last week. This week is just I love a lot of dogs. And this is one of them. People remember one of my bigger bets. I think it might have been a Simon Says play. Was that Browns at home on Halloween against the Bengals? I think it was three and a half. Same exact scenario. The Browns team looked awful the week before. the Bengals are getting all the hype in the world, right? They just had a big win. It's another game of, I'm not backing Watson. This is more of a back of their defense for some reason matches up really well against what Joe Burrow and this offense wants to do And in Joe career I have to look but I think he is 0 straight up Never beaten the Browns. Right. I think that is right, though. I think he's never beaten the Browns in his early career. He might have missed a game because of that ACL tear, but in the games he's played, he's just struggled against this defense for some reason. The way they scheme it with their cornerbacks and their safeties. and Miles Garrett always plays well against the Cincinnati front line. It is a really bizarre matchup in that sense. But just off not going off any of that, this number should be four. Like this number is ballooned up on what we just talked about. Joe, Joe is, he's going to be that guy this week talked about MVP. Like I'm not sure what his odds were at the start of the week and now what they are. But you have a game like that, what he had against the Chiefs, which was not perfect, but close to it. Like anytime they needed a third down, a big play, Joe kept doing it. And like Chad's talking about, he's been doing it for weeks now. They're on a really hot run, 10 and one, their last 11, eight CS. It's incredible what this team has done, but this number is inflated. And it's, it's inflated in the number in a divisional game. I always back the dog in those sides. So I wanted to be on the bangles. I was hoping the value would come down because Watson was back. And I was like, maybe this will open at three and a half. I could grab that. It didn't. It opened up at like six, six and a half. Staying at six, maybe it's going to drop a little bit, but I grab that six now just to be safe.”
CIN 23-10 CLE — Bengals beat Browns 23-10; Cleveland +6 lost outright and against the spread (ESPN box score).
“This one I know we're going to talk about. Eagles on the road, seven-point favorites against the New York football Giants. do you want to say it once again simon says the giants time i knew it you know you and i didn't discuss it but that's why i said do you want to say it because i had a feeling we were going giants plus seven and it's the same reason we took the giants last week i just feel like the”
PHI 48-22 NYG — Eagles beat Giants 48-22; New York +7 lost outright and against the spread (ESPN box score).
“The, you know, this, the Giants, it's a divisional game. Giants at home, playoff implications, all the things you said, plus the inflation on the Eagles. Yes. Back to Giants. The other thing I'll say is pricing, the juice on this at plus seven is already below minus 110, which basically tells you get it now because it's moving fast. And it is a pros-joes game. 63% of the bets on the Eagles, 60% of the money on the Giants.”
PHI 48-22 NYG — Eagles beat Giants 48-22; New York +7 lost outright and against the spread (ESPN box score).
“issues with this team traveling. Vikings visiting the lions. The lions are two and a half point favorites. This line has moved up. Opened at one and a half, uh, moved up today. Like in the last few hours, I don't know if it's because I picked the lions on our show green dot daily that airs at noon eastern on ad action network network hq and in the app i'm gonna ed this exact decision on the lions i still like the lions at less than a field goal 94 of the money on the lions right now but 57 on the vikings so it's a pro joe game pros on the lions they're just a better team like i know it sounds crazy to say it the vikings again a one score game gave up nearly 500 yards to the jets the Jets punted one time. They scored one touchdown. The Lions, since Amonra St. Brown came back, since they had their bye, the Lions are comparable to the Bengals in terms of their rankings for advanced metrics on offense and defense, and they're lights out at home. So I'm Love, love, love the Lions in this spot. By the way, Simon, we're two Lions wins away from cashing our over ticket for the season, which was probably our biggest preseason win total future. Do you agree or disagree? Lions, exact decision. Exact decision by Chad Millman.”
DET 34-23 MIN — Lions beat Vikings 34-23, covering as -2.5 favorites (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, of course I'm on. This is one of these games I bet early. Bet the Lions in the open as a dog. It flipped right away. I think Sunday night to them being favorites. It's a classic game of public perception versus professional bettors, how they view certain teams and certain lines. But if this hits three, three and a half for the Vikings, the value is going to flip. And that's the toughest part about doing this, where it's like, I want to take the Lions two and a half. I'd still take them like Chad's doing right now. I think that's a good number.”
DET 34-23 MIN — Lions beat Vikings 34-23, covering as -2.5 favorites (ESPN box score).
“Yeah Broncos Carolina which did go under Yeah which went way under All right I will say this right now as I said it last week for the Rams very early big balls bet of the week contender, Broncos plus nine and a half at home against the Chiefs. Wait. Last week, I was slacking with Matt Mitchell and Simon. every morning i woke up wanting to bet the broncos waited waited waited it got to my to plus 10 for about five minutes i better to plus 10 and felt great about it i'm waiting for this to get the plus 10 because 81 of the money is on the chiefs 83 of the bets but the broncos are the side here simon yep i mean if you want to say we're big balls i was gonna make this our foxhole but we can do big balls for this one no dude i'll listen i want the broncos on our slate that's all i'm saying it's gonna be so we talked about last yeah foxhole broncos right we're in the foxhole”
KC 34-28 DEN — Chiefs beat Broncos 34-28; Denver +9.5 covers on a 6-point loss (ESPN box score).
“I'm with Chad in the sense that this is an inflated line. We're getting two points of value just because everyone hates betting Denver. No one bet them last week. Me and Chad are the few people that actually won money on them last week, you got to roll it over. I did a divisional game, a home dog with a good defense. We have to do it. It's another case of you have to just hold your nose and bet this. Don't even watch it. Cause I had to turn it off. Cause it was so damn painful to watch that offense. Just trust the defense, trust the number. This is a smart play to back down over here. But do you wait until it gets 10 or do you play it at nine and a half? Um, you can like, I already took the nine and a half, But like with most of my bets, I'm like you, I'm waiting for that number. So yeah, if the 10 pops, that's when I'll kind of unload on it. But I'd play the nine and a half small just in case it does drop to eight and a half. Because you're getting a fair number here at nine and a half. You are getting a fair number.”
KC 34-28 DEN — Chiefs beat Broncos 34-28; Denver +9.5 covers on a 6-point loss (ESPN box score).
“No, I bet I'm on Jets now. [41:45] You would go all in on the Jets in the contest. [41:47] Okay. [41:47] Yeah, like I'm on the three now.”
MIN 27-22 NYJ — Vikings beat Jets 27-22; New York +3 lost outright and against the spread (ESPN box score).
“right now because they are at home this line has gone up it's uh they're plus one right now um i cannot understand for the life of me why anybody would take the steelers in this spot i like kenny pickett i think he's a gamer i think he's going to be a serviceable if not better professional, been really impressed with how he's evolved from being thrown into the fire to being better after the bye week. We saw it against New Orleans. We saw it against Cincinnati. We saw it against the Colts, but they shouldn't be row favorites. This isn't a rah-rah Mike Tomlin spot. This is a bet the Falcons who probably should be playing for the division and still have a shot at it why would I not bet the Falcons here”
PIT 19-16 ATL — Steelers beat Falcons 19-16; Atlanta +1 lost outright and against the spread (ESPN box score).
“Plus eight Actually down to seven and a half because the wise guys have come in on the Rams I don know why Say it And the Seahawks Dude you know what we doing right now Yeah. Big ball bed of the week, my friend. It is. We love the Rams when everyone's jumped off the ship.”
SEA 27-23 LAR — Seahawks beat Rams 27-23; Rams +7.5 covers on a 4-point loss (ESPN box score).
“Titans plus five and a half. [11:14] Visiting the Eagles. [11:16] I love the Titans here.”
PHI 35-10 TEN — Eagles beat Titans 35-10; Tennessee +5.5 lost outright and against the spread (ESPN box score).
“Titans plus five and a half. Visiting the Eagles. I love the Titans here. Mistake. Yeah. All right. Genius. Tell me. Tell me. It stinks. This line stinks. This stinks. This stinks. Why is this not three? Why is this not three and a half? The Titans want to run the ball. The Eagles cannot stop the run. Bizarro world line. So walk right into the fucking trap, Chad, with the rest of the public. Take the Titans. Everyone's going to. I wanted to. I immediately was like, yeah, give me six. Thank you. And we've seen a drop, which makes you feel great, right? If you get to six, now it's five and a half. But this line stinks to holy hell. I don't know why this isn't closer to three, three and a half. That makes more sense. maybe the book is overvaluing the Eagles still, but I don't see that. This Titans team has been winning people money. That was their first non-cover last week in seven straight weeks. So the public is on the Titans. The public does not trust the Eagles. The Eagles, I agree with people saying they got lucky last week. It felt like they did. If Rodgers didn't go out, they probably weren't going to cover that game. So me, I'm with Chad right away. I wanted to take the Titans. They're just, Brayville is a dog. I blindly take the number and I take the money line This week I will take the Eagles in a matchup that I think their defense is going to get it right against a team that is just simply take away the run What the hell is Tannehill going to do? We've seen it time and time again. This guy cannot make the plays you need him to make. So I'll back my Eagles here as an under six-point favorite.”
PHI 35-10 TEN — Eagles beat Titans 35-10, covering as -5.5 favorites (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Giants, plus two and a half. Hopefully you can get the plus three if you can find it,”
WSH 20-20 NYG (OT) — Commanders and Giants tied 20-20 in overtime; Giants +2.5 covers on a push margin (ESPN box score).
“49ers minus three and a half in the foxhole.”
SF 33-17 MIA — 49ers beat Dolphins 33-17, covering as -3.5 favorites (ESPN box score).
“I'll take the seven and a half. Hopefully it gets back to eight. That'd be a good number. The Andrews got it at eight. Grab the eight then. because it's just professionals are going to take this number in the sense that you have a divisional home dog that as bad as they have looked, this Rams team, it's still McVay that can scheme up a way to run the ball against a really bad stop in the run defense in the Seahawks. So this big of a number, this is in the middle of the season, the Seahawks, like they're on a roll for a while there. You've kind of seen them come back down to earth these last couple of weeks. We got obviously caught with it last week. Same thing this week. I think this line's too, too high for a Seahawks team. The fact that the public is going to be all over this, right? They're going to be teasing this number, everything. So we're in every Joe Publix Moneyline Parlay, taking the Seahawks here. I'll gladly take the value on the eight with this Rams team.”
SEA 27-23 LAR — Seahawks beat Rams 27-23; Rams +8 covers on a 4-point loss (ESPN box score).
“Our favorite team to fade on the road as a favorite, the Los Angeles Chargers, are on the road as a favorite against the Las Vegas Raiders. The number right now is one and a half. The Raiders are one and a half point underdogs. The Chargers nearly gave it away against the Cardinals pulled one out and the Raiders did exactly the opposite beating up on the Seahawks in the overtime with Josh Jacobs gaining 800 yards in the game It's a pro-Joe game. Tickets on the Chargers. Not your exact decision? No. Oh, fuck. Love Vegas here. Yeah, I love it. I love Vegas here.”
LV 27-20 LAC — Raiders beat Chargers 27-20 outright; Las Vegas +1.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Our favorite team to fade on the road as a favorite, the Los Angeles Chargers, are on the road as a favorite against the Las Vegas Raiders. The number right now is one and a half. The Raiders are one and a half point underdogs. The Chargers nearly gave it away against the Cardinals pulled one out and the Raiders did exactly the opposite beating up on the Seahawks in the overtime with Josh Jacobs gaining 800 yards in the game It's a pro-Joe game. Tickets on the Chargers. Not your exact decision? No. Oh, fuck. Love Vegas here. Yeah, I love it. I love Vegas here. Yeah, going to make Chad force this one in on Sunday. Well, hopefully we'll get two and a half. That'd be amazing because two, such a lame number. I fucking hate pushes. So hopefully they give us two and a half.”
LV 27-20 LAC — Raiders beat Chargers 27-20 outright; Las Vegas +1.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“The Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals, two and a half point underdogs at home. We're EDing the fuck out of the Bengals right now. a choice between the unthinkable and the impossible Now you have your orders execute them Executive decision”
CIN 27-24 KC — Bengals beat Chiefs 27-24; Cincinnati +2.5 covers on a 3-point win (ESPN box score).
“all their wins are really close. They've had a couple of times. A couple of big blowouts, but if you go through it, like I'm looking at right now, most of their wins are by three, especially when they play against teams that can put up points. They just stay in these games because their defense really can't get stopped. So, yeah, with Chad, I'm going to back it here. I'll be all over Cincy with them. Hopefully we can get to the three, but at two and a half, I still think we're getting a good key number with the Cincy team.”
CIN 27-24 KC — Bengals beat Chiefs 27-24; Cincinnati +2.5 covers on a 3-point win (ESPN box score).
“no bye weeks bills lions uh the bills are on the road they are nine and a half point favorites I think you like the Bills in this game. And to me, I love the Lions.”
BUF 28, DET 25 — Bills beat Lions 28-25; Lions margin -3 vs the +9.5 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“no bye weeks bills lions uh the bills are on the road they are nine and a half point favorites I think you like the Bills in this game. And to me, I love the Lions. I bet road favorites on Thanksgiving. That's just what I do. Evan Amos is going to put out the trend. I believe it's 19-5 ATS since 2003 or 2004. Just road favorites, Thanksgiving, they pay out. Every year I do the same thing. I mean, people are going to catch on if you listen to this podcast every year. I bet the road favorites and I fade the Cowboys. It's been very profitable. The Cowboys just lay eggs on Thanksgiving. I believe they're 1-10 in their last 11, ATS. Just a lot of trends I like to ride. Going with the Bills here.”
BUF 28, DET 25 — Bills beat Lions 28-25; Bills margin +3 vs the -9.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“I said my favorite bet for Thanksgiving was the Vikings first quarter minus one and a half.”
MIN 33, NE 26 — Patriots led the first quarter 10-7; Vikings 1st-quarter margin -3 vs the -1.5 line, busts (ESPN box score, quarter-by-quarter).
“On Thursday, my favorite bet is Patriots plus three. [23:03] Go grab it.”
MIN 33, NE 26 — Vikings beat Patriots 33-26; Patriots margin -7 vs the +3 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“Patriots at the Vikings. This one's interesting. It's bouncing around plus three, plus two and a half, plus three, plus two and a half. Money on the Patriots. Tickets on the Vikings. Sharp call of the week. This is one of the really smart group reached out to a couple different people telling them they're going to be on this one on Sunday. Grab the three while you can. There's still threes out there. So again, they've moved the number at a couple of books, but you can still find a three out there if you shop around. So I'd grab that now. It's just going to be a professional play. Like again, as soon as I saw this number, I liked it. Hearing a smart groups on it gave me more confidence. I kind of talked about chat earlier. It's a classic defensive line versus offensive line mismatch, which we saw last week with this Vikings team, there's just too many injuries. Again, Kirk, that game wasn't even on him last week. He had no time. Guys were just in his lap that entire game. I expect the exact same thing here, this New England team that I know people sleep on them. They have one of the better defenses in football, and they have the third highest graded D-line in football right now, in my opinion. So I'm looking at a team here that, you know, they played bad. Like, do you think Belichick's going to let them get off that they won by a punt return last week? No, he's going to treat that as if it's a loss. He's going to be on their ass on a short week. I would love to take the Vikings in a bounce back spot. They just don't have an offensive line. Kirk's going to have no time. Cook's going to have no holes to run through. Hate that matchup. Flip it to the other side. What did we just see? We saw Dallas is running all over this Vikings team. What does New England want to do? They want to run the ball with their two-headed monster, and that's how they're going to do in this game. So no brainer, grab the plus three. Hope that can convince Chad to take this one.”
MIN 33, NE 26 — Vikings beat Patriots 33-26; Patriots margin -7 vs the +3 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“Finally, the Ravens visiting the Jaguars. I know you love this game. Jags are four-point dogs at home. 93% of the early money on the Baltimore Ravens. Simon Says. Oh, boy. Oh, boy. When Simon Says do it, we do what Simon Says. People. Oh my goodness. But we have to do it. This is an inflated line. The public, they have too much faith in this Ravens team that just has not been showing us that they deserve this much faith. Right. They've struggled these last couple of weeks ever since their number one receiver went down. We've seen their issues with Mark Andrews. Right. He's just not looked right. He's been banged up these last couple of weeks. I just like the Jaguars. I feel like they're a team that's getting right coming out of a bye week. This is a great spot for, you know, Doug. hit a whole week with him. I mean, again, who knows what they worked on, but he had an interview I saw two days ago where he talked about him and Lawrence got together. They worked on a lot of stuff. They talked about a bunch of stuff about what was good from the beginning of the year and what they can work on and what they can improve on. So again, to me, it feels like we're buying low on a Jaguars team that no, like you just said, the numbers, no one's gonna be betting them, right? This is your classic pros versus Joes. Just like last week, again, that Colts number made no sense to the public. They didn't get what was happening, why they were getting such a good deal and taking this Eagles team. It does the same thing here with this Ravens team. 7-3, they've earned it. The three losses they've had this year, they were self-inflicted. They had the Bills. They gave that game away at the end there. They had Miami. They gave that game away. They had a lot of self-inflicted games. This just feels like a bad spot for this Ravens team. They're just going up against a team that matches up very well for them on defense. They want to take away their run. That's where the Jaguars excel at. Now you're forcing the Ravens to pass. And we've seen how the Ravens just, the passing game just isn't there right now. So a big number at four, making it my Simon Says guy, I think this will go to three and a half, three by Sunday kickoff. Again, this is just going to be a professional game. They'll take this number every time. So if you can still grab the four now, at FanDuel, I'll grab it before it moves.”
JAX 28, BAL 27 — Jaguars beat Ravens 28-27 outright, covering +4 (ESPN box score).
“You just fucking said it, dude. The Titans haven't, they've covered in like eight straight weeks. Frabel is an underdog. We all know the numbers. This is going to be a spot chat. I feel like we're going to be kind of alone on it. Maybe a couple of pros will bet it with us, But Joe Public will be on the Titans. They'll tease the Titans up to eight or seven and a half. Like they going to love this number this week To me the biggest advantage is the Titans only weakness is they can be passed on And lucky for us I shouldn say lucky but it seems like Joe Mixon is going to be out Samaji Pete Reins are receiving back. We saw last week how dominant he was catching the ball in the backfield. That's what the Bengals' identity will be against Tennessee. That's how they're going to beat them, is passing the ball and moving it through the air. So giving me this number under three, I honestly think it's a gift. Again, we saw these two teams playing the playoffs last year. I think the Titans sacked them like 10 times. I'm not even exaggerating. Yeah. And they still lost that game. This Bengals O-line is much improved. This should be a good matchup for this Bengals team. So just based off the regression we expect from Tennessee here, they should drop this game. But not only that, I think they're sucking the public in a little bit. So it's not surprising to see the money and the tickets come in early on Tennessee. Again, two and a half, two, one and a half. As long as you get under three, I would take this Bengals number.”
CIN 20, TEN 16 — Bengals beat Titans 20-16, covering -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“Our exec decision, Atlanta plus four and a half.”
WSH 19, ATL 13 — Commanders beat Falcons 19-13; Falcons margin -6 vs the +4.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“in this position Denver Broncos oh god they're two and a half point favorites at Carolina that's how bad Carolina is that the Broncos are two and a half point favorites on the road and this Broncos team is just dreadful. This is an auto play on the under for sure. But what do we think of the side here? I immediately regretted spending any time on this game, working the numbers, trying to figure this game out. It was truly pointless where it's like, I don't know what I'm getting from either quarterback. I know exactly what I'm getting from both defenses. Chad just nailed it. I'll just take the under and pass on this game. I want to take Carolina because who the hell is Denver to be catching points right now? They got nothing working. Just an absolute train wreck of a season. It's a real shame Chad didn't listen to his co-host all summer talking about how bad Russell Wilson is. Did I ever imagine to be this bad? No. This is crazy. It is crazy how bad he is. The whole situation is so crazy. I just can't believe they gave him that contract. Just feels so terrible for Denver fans. So, yeah, would love to take Panthers here. Maybe I will if it's Sam Darnold at quarterback, but baker mayfield can't do it can't do it so i'll just take the under so um we have a stat evan abrams put it out i believe our crack research lead the total in this game is 35 wow i think it's one of the lowest totals in the past 20 years i'd still play that i'd still play the under yeah i mean the lowest total in college football was um i think it was the same thing it”
CAR 23, DEN 10 — Panthers beat Broncos 23-10, combined 33 points, under 35 covers (ESPN box score).
“I immediately regretted spending any time on this game, working the numbers, trying to figure this game out. It was truly pointless where it's like, I don't know what I'm getting from either quarterback. I know exactly what I'm getting from both defenses. Chad just nailed it. I'll just take the under and pass on this game. I want to take Carolina because who the hell is Denver to be catching points right now? They got nothing working. Just an absolute train wreck of a season. It's a real shame Chad didn't listen to his co-host all summer talking about how bad Russell Wilson is. Did I ever imagine to be this bad? No. This is crazy. It is crazy how bad he is. The whole situation is so crazy. I just can't believe they gave him that contract. Just feels so terrible for Denver fans. So, yeah, would love to take Panthers here. Maybe I will if it's Sam Darnold at quarterback, but baker mayfield can't do it can't do it so i'll just take the under so um we have a stat evan abrams put it out i believe our crack research lead the total in this game is 35 wow i think it's one of the lowest totals in the past 20 years i'd still play that i'd still play the under yeah i mean the lowest total in college football was um i think it was the same thing it”
CAR 23, DEN 10 — Panthers beat Broncos 23-10, combined 33 points, under 35 covers (ESPN box score).
“their three and a half point underdogs at seattle no brainer take seattle here every time raiders”
LV 40, SEA 34 — Raiders beat Seahawks 40-34 in OT; Seahawks margin -6 vs the -3.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“do saints plus nine and a half for the foxhole because if you look at the like one of these”
SF 13, NO 0 — 49ers beat Saints 13-0; Saints margin -13 vs the +9.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“But as long as it's not a Thursday night, Monday night or Sunday night game, I'm going to back Andy Dalton. And I like him in this spot. I would say, should we be thinking about this for Foxhole instead of Texans? There you go. foxhole we're in the fox let's climb down into the foxhole i would much much much would rather appreciate that much more all right so let's do that let's do saints plus nine and a half for the foxhole because if you look at the like one of these”
SF 13, NO 0 — 49ers beat Saints 13-0; Saints margin -13 vs the +9.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“Give me Dallas minus one and a half. [38:11] I'm all in on this week.”
DAL 40, MIN 3 — Cowboys beat Vikings 40-3, covering -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“get a one or one and a half for the cowboys um let's talk about the new orleans since we liked them the other day at minus four we didn't know stafford was playing stafford practiced today yeah uh or practiced yesterday you said before we came on you heard he had been cleared and he will be playing this weekend. The number is now down to three. I still love the Saints. I don't care who's playing quarterback for the Rams.”
NO 27, LAR 20 — Saints beat Rams 27-20, covering -3 (ESPN box score).
“If I can get a three in the contest I take that with the Saints team at home [17:35] in a matchup against a Rams team that just has major issues across the board.”
NO 27, LAR 20 — Saints beat Rams 27-20, covering -3 (ESPN box score).
“so we're going with cincy minus three and a half yeah i'm going against our boy chris [32:17] Raybon”
CIN 37, PIT 30 — Bengals beat Steelers 37-30, covering -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“so we're going with cincy minus three and a half yeah i'm going against our boy chris Raybon oh yeah we're going against Raybon we're we're saying let's confirm we both I don want to be overly enthusiastic and convince you here I just I told you the pros are on Pittsburgh this week like I had a couple of calls and I said to them what we saying right now It like all right keep betting it Let me get three and a half. It's three and a half at FanDuel. I got to be a man of my word, Chad. I'm with you on it. We're doing it.”
CIN 37, PIT 30 — Bengals beat Steelers 37-30, covering -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'll take the Chargers plus six.”
KC 30, LAC 27 — Chiefs beat Chargers 30-27; Chargers margin -3 vs the +6 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“Love the over, though. [29:29] If that's true and there's not going to be snow and not going to be crazy shit happening during the game, [29:33] take that value and take the over. [29:35] I already grabbed it at 41.5, 41. [29:38] It's up to 42.5 in a bunch of books. [29:40] Key number, I'd still grab it there.”
BUF 31, CLE 23 — Bills beat Browns 31-23, combined 54 points, over 42.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“[34:22] uh all right let's talk about our money line round robin parlay and then we got to do some scooch [34:31] roulette my dog likes your dog your dog likes my dog and i did not like this week like last week i [34:41] feel like we had three three games that were just like good money lines we did three uh we had three [34:47] winners last week we had the commanders we had uh i know we had the vikings we had the vikings we had someone else i think pittsburgh we start off easy bears no brainer like that one of those again if you got it at three I would just take the money line there I could either see them winning this game or losing by two touchdowns [35:07] That's how the Bears have been this season, an up-and-down team. [35:11] Give me the Bears as our first leg. [35:13] Game we didn't even touch on. [35:15] A game I didn't get much info from pros about, [35:17] so I didn't really have a feel for. [35:18] I think everyone's a little scared off in the professional community [35:20] of this Giants team, but Detroit feels like a smart side, [35:24] but a smart side of the sense that I'm just going to take their money line. [35:26] I'm not even going to mess with the points here. [35:28] We're on the stinkier games this week. [35:29] So start off with the Bears. [35:31] Give me Detroit. [35:35] I know Chad wants to do it. [35:36] I can't do it. [35:37] I can't even say it, but I'll have to say it. [35:40] Colts. [35:41] Yeah, throw them in there. [35:41] Dude, we were in a mind meld right there. [35:43] You said it at the exact same time. [35:44] I knew it, though. [35:45] It's just – and you're spot on about it. [35:47] It's like teams go through different periods in the season [35:50] where they just drop games. [35:51] We've seen – we've just solved the Bills. [35:53] The Bills have dropped two games that shit, no one projecting out. [35:56] So I'm losing the Jets and then Minnesota at home. [35:58] It's just, that's wonky parts of the season. [36:01] That could be easily be the Eagles. [36:02] You're dropping a game of Washington, dropping a game of the Colts. [36:05] Give me Houston. [36:06] No brainer. [36:07] We love them at home in a bounce back spot here and top of the half. [36:10] Our big ball is bet. [36:11] Chargers outright win. [36:13] It's not our big balls bet. [36:15] Since he is our big balls bet. [36:16] You're right. [36:17] But still the Chargers, the Chargers should be in this money line parlay. [36:22] You're right. [36:23] I will.”
Moneyline round robin busts: Chicago Bears — lost to Atlanta 27-24; Detroit Lions — beat NY Giants 31-18, won; Indianapolis Colts — lost to Philadelphia 17-16; Houston Texans — lost to Washington 23-10; Los Angeles Chargers — lost to Kansas City 30-27. Three of five legs lost.
“I'll take Tennessee here at three, three and a half. Don't know if we'll make it to our contest, but I definitely think we're getting a good number here.”
TEN 27, GB 17 — Titans beat Packers 27-17 outright, covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“Commanders. After a huge Monday night game, visiting the Texans. This line is three. Let me make sure I have it correct from FanDuel right now because it bouncing all over the place Plus three and a half We both got strong opinions on this game Well I thought you were about to make your executive decision I am going to make my exact decision right now on the Houston Texans at plus three and a half. The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Now you have your orders. Execute them. Executive decision. This does feel like a no-brainer. Me and Chad and five other people will be on Houston kicking myself. We knew to be on the Colts last week. That's how me and Chad make our good money. It's like you take these ugly dogs that everyone's shitting on all week and everyone hates. And, hell, in my burners here with Houston, we have no choice here. Especially once they hit three and a half, I'll be the sucker. Suck me in, Sportsbooks. I will take the three and a half.”
WSH 23, HOU 10 — Commanders beat Texans 23-10; Texans margin -13 vs the +3.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“This line is three. Let me make sure I have it correct from FanDuel right now because it bouncing all over the place Plus three and a half We both got strong opinions on this game Well I thought you were about to make your executive decision I am going to make my exact decision right now on the Houston Texans at plus three and a half. The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Now you have your orders. Execute them. Executive decision. This does feel like a no-brainer. Me and Chad and five other people will be on Houston kicking myself. We knew to be on the Colts last week. That's how me and Chad make our good money. It's like you take these ugly dogs that everyone's shitting on all week and everyone hates. And, hell, in my burners here with Houston, we have no choice here. Especially once they hit three and a half, I'll be the sucker. Suck me in, Sportsbooks. I will take the three and a half. I'll be that sucker. But you have to take this number. A home dog here against a team that just won in prime time in a divisional game. Chad just said they're a double-digit dog. Again, you'll see the trends that come out this week. Teams that are double-digit dogs that are going on the road as a favorite the following week, no bueno. So I'm loving where Chad's head's at. That's why he's offering up to me. But it's just a play that as soon as I saw the line came out, I said, well, me and Chad are going to look like idiots or really smart people in the Green Bay game. It's just you're playing the number here. You can't look at the teams. Got to just look at the number and see that this is an inflated line. Should be closer to a pick. Three and a half is a gift. I am so frustrated that I bet it at three because when we looked at the lines this morning, there were threes and there were two and a halves.”
WSH 23, HOU 10 — Commanders beat Texans 23-10; Texans margin -13 vs the +3 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“Patriots are three-point favorites. [28:13] Simon, on Green Dot Daily this morning, [28:16] you made an incredible point about the Patriots in this line [28:20] compared to what it was two weeks ago. [28:22] I want you to do it here. [28:24] I want this to be our foxhole chat.”
NE 10, NYJ 3 — Patriots beat Jets 10-3, covering -3 (ESPN box score).
“The Jets on the road at the Patriots. Patriots are three-point favorites. Simon, on Green Dot Daily this morning, you made an incredible point about the Patriots in this line compared to what it was two weeks ago. I want you to do it here. I want this to be our foxhole chat. Foxhole! Let's climb down into the foxhole. Last week it was uncomfortable. Oh no, two weeks coming back. It was uncomfortable. It's not fun in the foxhole. This week should give you a little more relief. It's not as gross. It's not as gross as it usually is. But the public is coming on the jet, so that's why I feel like it needs to be a foxhole game where it's like people are drinking the coolie they're coming in on the jets they're coming in on you know mac is broken this patriots team is offense is broken a jets team is ascending but chad just talked about it we talked on green dot daily my my favorite thing about this game is not even two or i guess it's coming up on three weeks but it is two weeks pretty much ago the patriots came here to new jersey they played the jets in the jets home stadium that line was minus three. Patriots won that game. Next week, Buffalo comes to New Jersey. They play the Jets. They lose. Everyone in the world was all over the Bills. Professionals were on the Jets, but the Jets win that game outright against the Bills. Going to a bye week, coming out of the bye week. Now they're going up to New England and the line's only plus three. That doesn't make sense. Why would the line not change at all when one team was on the road now at home? It's a simple fact the public likes the Jets now. And again, I'm looking at the app right now. That's where the tickets are. All the people are betting the Jets. They're taking them in their teasers. This is the Patriots team that you want to back against a Jets team historically they dominate. I'm going to have a bye week. Again, I love what the Jets have done. I love their defense and everything about it. The Patriots aren't a high-throwing team. And to me, that's the Jets' bread and butter, teams that need to throw the ball against them. Again, they have arguably two of the best corners in football right now. Sauce, just a rookie, but he's a shutdown corner in this league as we stand here. But against the run, you can't move the ball against this Jets team. That's how they beat them last time they played each other. So, to me, this line is probably more minus five, minus four and a half. but again, they upset the Bills. That was a big deal the last time people saw this Jets team play. So they're looking at this saying, well, plus three in a divisional game against a Patriots team that's not that good. I'll trust it. I'll just back the defense here where I like it the other way. It's like, man, I'm getting free points here for a Patriots team that knows exactly who they are. They don't have an injury to their number one running back. Their number one running back is healthy, and he's coming out of a bye. I just love this matchup and the perception of what people think of this Jets team right now. So I think we're getting free value on this Patriots team.”
NE 10, NYJ 3 — Patriots beat Jets 10-3, covering -3 (ESPN box score).
“Browns on the road at the Buffalo Bills. The Buffalo Bills, eight and a half point favorites. I won't make Matt Mitchell relive this past week. Because that was like, to not only have it happen, But everyone's still be talking about it as the game of the year. It was. You can't even turn on the television if you're a sports fan and the Bills fan. Again, the worst part of that Bills game, I think, for those fans was just the fact that they won and lost it like 10 times. And those are the worst games of experience. You keep winning games and losing. It's the same game over and over again. Don't know what's wrong with Josh. Like that game kind of falls on his shoulders there. Those turnovers, they're a real problem right now. Like he's on pace to have more turnovers than he's ever had in his career. It's not like Josh to be throwing these just reckless interceptions. I mean, that final one, how do you short arm that one? Like, again, your legs were working. It's just Josh has these little moments. These decisions, that's just not like him where last year he just rarely put himself in positions to turn the ball over, where it feels like this year he's more confident in his arm, taking bigger risk, and it's just not been working for him. So in a game that we're expecting a shit ton of snow and bad weather, I'll take the running team and Nick Chubb. It's just what the hell am I supposed to do here? I got to take the plus eight. I hate it. I want to back the Bills after such a bad loss. This is usually when they kill teams. but something something seems off about Josh Allen they've had three straight games now where they haven't scored a touchdown the second half that's not like Josh Allen this offense that usually they make adjustments and they're more dominant in the second half in his career it's not been that way this year so eight and a half eight points I'd grab it now just in case it really do get five feet of snow up there and it's freezing cold and this is kind of the best game you can imagine for a running team like the Cleveland Browns have but if it turns out to be RA weather, I will shift the other side because we just saw this Cleveland team against a pass happy team. They couldn't stop anything on offense that the Miami team was running at them. So I'm interested to see what the final info is on what the weather system is supposed to be. Because again, they're calling for like 15 feet of snow. It's supposed to be insane this Sunday for this game. So just to get ahead of it, I got no issue grabbing, And just like the Vikings last week, I have no issue grabbing the number now. You want to buy a position later on, you can. I grabbed the eight and I grabbed the eight and a half just to be safe. Because I do see it coming down if it is what they're saying it's going to be, which is really bad weather.”
BUF 31, CLE 23 — Bills beat Browns 31-23; Browns margin -8 vs the +8.5 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“Browns on the road at the Buffalo Bills. The Buffalo Bills, eight and a half point favorites. I won't make Matt Mitchell relive this past week. Because that was like, to not only have it happen, But everyone's still be talking about it as the game of the year. It was. You can't even turn on the television if you're a sports fan and the Bills fan. Again, the worst part of that Bills game, I think, for those fans was just the fact that they won and lost it like 10 times. And those are the worst games of experience. You keep winning games and losing. It's the same game over and over again. Don't know what's wrong with Josh. Like that game kind of falls on his shoulders there. Those turnovers, they're a real problem right now. Like he's on pace to have more turnovers than he's ever had in his career. It's not like Josh to be throwing these just reckless interceptions. I mean, that final one, how do you short arm that one? Like, again, your legs were working. It's just Josh has these little moments. These decisions, that's just not like him where last year he just rarely put himself in positions to turn the ball over, where it feels like this year he's more confident in his arm, taking bigger risk, and it's just not been working for him. So in a game that we're expecting a shit ton of snow and bad weather, I'll take the running team and Nick Chubb. It's just what the hell am I supposed to do here? I got to take the plus eight.”
BUF 31, CLE 23 — Bills beat Browns 31-23; Browns margin exactly -8, pushing the +8 line (ESPN box score).
“So, I mean, look, we can start breaking it down. Let's go to the Bears for a second [9:38] because I love the Bears at two and a half.”
DET 31, CHI 30 — Lions beat Bears 31-30; Bears lost outright, missing the -2.5 cover (ESPN box score).
“Still like the Bears. Still like the Packers. Yep. It's like the Browns, plus three and a half. Plus four, hopefully you can get that. Plus four, hopefully you can get it. For the record, I bet it three and a half because I didn't see any fours out there anymore. And the pros keep buying it. Every time it hits four, like I hit four this morning, I texted my runner, said grab that DraftKings four. I just checked now, it's already gone. So the four pops up, it's going to keep disappearing. You're probably right.”
MIA 39, CLE 17 — Dolphins beat Browns 39-17; Browns margin -22 vs the +3.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm taking this. You're taking Denver plus two and a half. I'm taking the Steelers plus one and a half.”
PIT 20, NO 10 — Steelers beat Saints 20-10 outright, covering +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“You're taking Denver plus two and a half. I'm taking the Steelers plus one and a [35:00] half.”
PIT 20, NO 10 — Steelers beat Saints 20-10 outright, covering +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“big balls bet of the week jacksonville jaguars plus nine and a half look dude we talked about [26:34] it on tuesday it's ugly oh no we know it's the right spot”
KC 27, JAX 17 — Chiefs beat Jaguars 27-17; Jaguars margin -10 vs the +9.5 line, busts by half a point (ESPN box score).
“half. Let's do our Moneyline run, Robin. I mean, I love this week. We haven't had a good run here where the dogs they've been covering, they just haven't been winning. Let's start off with Minnesota. How can we not, if Josh Allen's out, throw them in, throw Cleveland in. Got to throw the Chargers in. I love that big number. We've seen it time and time again. The 49ers, when they lose, they lose. Like bad. Do you want to do Green Bay, Jack? I was going to say we have to do Green Bay. We do, right? Yeah, of course. Yeah, that's good. 100%. And then I think – So Minnesota, Cleveland, Denver, Green Bay, Chargers. Minnesota, Cleveland. Oh, you want to do Denver because I would do the Steelers. Yeah, it's such a short number, though. All right, so do Denver. It's plus 109 on the app. Okay Denver is that not that much better plus 116 Yeah we can do that if you want Switch out Denver throw Pittsburgh in I feel better about a home team as a dog All right, let's take Cleveland out, though. Let's take Cleveland out, though. Okay. Cleveland's out. Denver's in. Pittsburgh is in. Pittsburgh's in. So for those listening live, I know Matt is putting these in the chat right now. Minnesota. Ripping his hair out. Minnesota, Denver, Chargers, Green Bay, Pittsburgh. Yep.”
Moneyline round robin busts: Minnesota Vikings — the real Cowboys-Vikings game was NFL Week 11 (Nov 20), not Week 10, and Dallas won 40-3, so Vikings ML lost; Denver Broncos — Denver's actual Week 10 opponent was Tennessee (not Las Vegas as labeled), and Denver lost 17-10, so Broncos ML lost; Los Angeles Chargers — 49ers beat Chargers 22-16, Chargers ML lost; Green Bay Packers — Packers beat Cowboys 31-28 in OT, Packers ML won; Pittsburgh Steelers — Steelers beat Saints 20-10, Steelers ML won. With Vikings, Broncos, and Chargers all losing, the round robin busts.
“Our favorite team in Germany, the Seattle Seahawks, the Buccaneers. Buccaneers are two and a half point favorites right now. Here's what's interesting. I was going to take the Buccaneers at minus two and a half. I hadn't seen the splits yet. 60% of the bets are on the Seahawks. 88% of the money is on the Buccaneers. We've hit peak Seahawks. We did the same thing with Atlanta. And we bet Atlanta that extra week they ended up losing to Cincinnati. I think last week was a peak Seahawks moment. I think it's a different game against the Buccaneers. I think this is a get right spot at a short number. Sure it is. But guess what? I will not be sucked in. Every week, I have these damn pros hitting me up being like, quit taking the Seahawks. It's going to catch up to them. And every week they keep winning for me and they keep covering. So I'll keep riding them. I love the Seahawks.”
16-21 — Buccaneers beat Seahawks 21-16 in Munich; Seattle lost by 5, failing to cover +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“The pick I gave out was the Bears minus [25:56] two and a half.”
30-31 — Lions beat Bears 31-30; Chicago lost by 1, failing to cover -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“Browns. Boy, this number is moving, too. Opened at four, down to three and a half, visiting the Dolphins. We got a Pro Joe alert. 53% of the tickets on the Dolphins, 60% of the money on the Browns. Simon. Simon Says. Grab it now. Simon Says! When Simon Says do it, we do what Simon Says. We're laughing because we talked this morning. I told Chad I loved it at plus four, and now it's already moving to plus three and a half. So I would just grab it before it's at three.”
17-39 — Dolphins beat Browns 39-17; Cleveland lost by 22, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I love that position in Denver. It's bumped up to three. I could see it getting to three and a half with the public coming in so heavy. But I would grab the three just in case. I don't think it's going there. Yeah, so I'd grab it just in case now. This is one of the bets I made right when I saw it get to three from two and a half. I grabbed the Denver.”
10-17 — Titans beat Broncos 17-10; Denver lost by 7, failing to cover +3 (ESPN box score).
“So that's another pass. The Cowboys are visiting the Green Bay Packers and the Packers right now are five and a half point underdogs. The biggest home underdog Aaron Rodgers has been since 2013. You hear that, Chad? I didn't hear anything. Those are the bullets flying above our heads as we hop down into a foxhole. We're going to the foxhole on the Green Bay Packers. Green Bay Packers.”
28-31 — Packers beat Cowboys 31-28 in overtime, covering +5.5 with the outright win (ESPN box score).
“The amount of tickets written on the Cowboys compared to green Bay, the money will probably be 12 to one or 13 to one written on the Cowboys compared to green Bay, just because of all the parlays and teasers that'll be on the Cowboys. So you can roll the dice and wait, but like I just said, I'd grab that five and a half. You can still get it. If it's five. Yeah. Throw a little bit on there.”
28-31 — Packers beat Cowboys 31-28 in overtime, covering +5.5 with the outright win (ESPN box score).
“Chargers plus seven is an autoplay.”
16-22 — 49ers beat Chargers 22-16; Los Angeles lost by 6, covering +7 (ESPN box score).
“bears minus two and a half the next game that i want to talk about the los angeles chargers visiting the San Francisco 49ers. The Chargers are seven point underdogs. I'm telling you right now, I am telling you right now, Simon, we have hit peak over correction, way peak over correction. The market has come down so far on the Chargers, Yeah. And he's gone so far up on the Niners. Yep. Chargers plus seven is an autoplay. Yeah. And I had to wait for my guy, Evan Abrams, to put out his article. But all the trends will back up. Faden, Shanahan, primetime, favorite, never good. You always take the other side in these positions. And historically, it will work out for you. Chargers is a big dog. That's where we like them. We don't like them as favorites, right? Like we joked last week, they're not a good team as a favorite for some reason. and they always play teams close that they should beat up on. This team, again, no one is expecting them to beat up on them, right? You're expecting this to be a closer game, especially towards this 49ers side. Such a letdown spot, right, for the 49ers. Like Chad just said, they've been sitting back all week hearing about how great they are as they sit there at 4-4. So crazy to think they might drop this game, then they'll be 4-5, and that is a massive, massive deal for that Seahawks team sitting there at 6-3. But, whew, seven points. Seven points for Herbert here. I love that. I love just the chances of the backdoor at that big of a number for a guy that won't stop slinging it. So, I'm right there with Chad. Love it at seven.”
16-22 — 49ers beat Chargers 22-16; Los Angeles lost by 6, covering +7 (ESPN box score).
“We're just going to roll through, starting with the Breeders' Cup Philly and Mare Sprint. I'm going obligatory, the number seven horse.”
Goodnight Olive won the 2022 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint at Keeneland; Obligatory did not win (Wikipedia 2022 Breeders' Cup results).
“But I think that the seven-horse Arrest Me Red is good enough to hang there with him, and his numbers suggest that. He's 15-1 on the morning line. We'll probably get a double-digit odds come post-time. So in race four, the seven Arrest Me Red.”
Caravel won the 2022 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint at Keeneland; Arrest Me Red did not win (Wikipedia 2022 Breeders' Cup results).
“In the big-ass fans, Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. having to regroup there a little bit because I loved Laurel River, but he's not going to be running. Just found that out earlier today. Gimme goodnight, the five, on a two-week turnaround.”
Cody's Wish won the 2022 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile at Keeneland; Gunite did not win (Wikipedia 2022 Breeders' Cup results).
“Makers Mark Breeders' Cup, Philly and Mare Turf. I'm going with Lady Spitespear. She's going to be a big price, close to 20 to 1. If she breaks well and doesn't have issues with the gait, which she has in the past, she has the potential to upset, and she can make the lead in this race. So give me Lady Spitespear, the one, in race 6.”
Tuesday won the 2022 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf at Keeneland; Lady Speightspeare did not win (Wikipedia 2022 Breeders' Cup results).
“Race 7, the Qatar Breeders' Cup Sprint. It's all about Jackie's Warrior. They can't hang with him. They certainly can't hang with him going six furlongs. I think he dazzles in that Breeders' Cup Sprint.”
Elite Power won the 2022 Breeders' Cup Sprint at Keeneland; Jackie's Warrior did not win (Wikipedia 2022 Breeders' Cup results).
“In the Fandle Breeders' Cup Mile, going to go with Ivar, another price horse.”
Modern Games won the 2022 Breeders' Cup Mile at Keeneland; Ivar did not win (Wikipedia 2022 Breeders' Cup results).
“Ivar here at Keeneland and a home game for him. In the Distaff, Malathat, the class mare, daughter of Curlin. She loves it here at Keeneland. She's never lost in three attempts. She's probably going to be second choice behind Nest, but I like Malathat in the Distaff.”
Malathaat won the 2022 Breeders' Cup Distaff at Keeneland by a nose over Blue Stripe and Clairiere (Wikipedia 2022 Breeders' Cup results).
“Broom, the four. If he breaks well, he's going to have himself in a good position. I like the fact that I, Rad Ortiz Jr., gets the call for these Irish connections, Aiden O'Brien and the Coolmore connections. Watch out for Broom in the turf.”
Rebel's Romance won the 2022 Breeders' Cup Turf at Keeneland by 2.25 lengths; Broome did not win (Wikipedia 2022 Breeders' Cup results).
“And then in the Breeders' Cup Classic, it's Flightline.”
Flightline won the 2022 Breeders' Cup Classic by 8.25 lengths over Olympiad, in a record-margin victory (Wikipedia 2022 Breeders' Cup Classic results). (Flightline wins by 8.25 lengths over Olympiad and Taiba)
“So give me Flightline over Teba. [19:44] That's four over the one in the Classic.”
Flightline won the Breeders' Cup Classic with Olympiad 2nd and Taiba 3rd, so the Flightline-over-Taiba exacta did not hit (Wikipedia 2022 Breeders' Cup Classic results). (1st Flightline, 2nd Olympiad, 3rd Taiba)
“titans plus 12 and a half is our big balls bed of the week”
20-17 — Chiefs beat Titans 20-17 in overtime; Tennessee lost by 3, comfortably within +12.5, so Titans covered (ESPN box score).
“Seahawks, plus two. [34:38] Give it to me.”
31-21 — Seahawks beat Cardinals 31-21, covering +2 with the outright win (ESPN box score).
“Vikings on the road at the Commanders. Here's one that we both love. Simon Says. Simon Says. Yeah. When Simon Says do it, we do what Simon Says. Simon Says, another three and a half. I think last week we gave out Cleveland. They were just at three. this week. We got the little bump. I don't know if it was good because of TJ Hocketson. I feel like it was three and a half when I bet it Sunday night. No, it's been three and a half since it opened, basically. Situationally, we like Washington. We like their defense. We like the rhythm they found on offense. That was the first time they've come back in a game. They were down double digits in the fourth quarter since Mark Brunel. Washington has been lost for the last 20 years. Again, I'm not saying Heineke's found them, but they're four and four right now in the hardest division of football like you can't just act like that's not pretty impressive for this Washington team that I kind of left them for dead as well but we've been riding in the last couple weeks here and they've been winning for us I'll keep it going again an undervalued line we joked this feels like a Carson Wentz tax like they they're they're going off the data from earlier in the season when Wentz was the quarterback as well I make this line closer to two and a half two I'll take this every time again the Vikings are really good Chad tried to catch them last week against the Cardinals I I just – they are going to get caught. This Vikings team is going to get caught. Like, they keep getting away with these games that their defense gives up a ton of yards, but they get into prompt fumbles on the kickoffs or drop punts or weird interceptions by their defense. So, situationally, I like Washington. The fact that their defense has been playing so well, that's huge to me because I do think they're going to be able to get pressure on Kirk here, which is a big deal. So, I'm backing Heineke. This will be three weeks straight now. I backed them, but he's produced, he's covered for us every week. We backed him, Chad. Yeah. I love Washington in this spot.”
20-17 — Vikings beat Commanders 20-17; Washington lost by 3, covering +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“They're seven point underdogs. No Jamar Chase. Oh, God. No Jamar Chase. I know. The Panthers are sort of probably getting out of their that glow us against the world feeling you have when your best player is traded and your coach is fired. and, you know, the Bengals were so bad on Monday Night Football that you almost feel like you're probably getting a discount here and the Panthers are overinflated. Yeah. I mean, obviously, we both wish it was six and a half, but it feels too easy sometimes, Jen. Like the games we do, I don't know if you want to make this our foxhole bet, but it feels that way just because I don't really think anyone's going to be on the Bengals this week. I just see everyone coming in on the Panthers just because they don't get it. There's schedule of losses in football. I know it sounds crazy. I couldn't tell. I tried to explain the reasoning to everyone about that Browns matchup and throwing out all the DVO and all the crazy numbers, just in the fact that you have to take a week to week. And that Cincinnati game that was such a bad spot for them Huge win now playing against a divisional foe that had a bad loss on the road Joe Burrow now 0 against that Browns team in his career He just does not play well against them. So now you get Joe at home off an embarrassing loss like that. I feel like every time he's in the spot, he dominates the team. Just so happens it's a team that I'm with you, Chad. I think they might be reeling a little bit. Like you just lost a divisional game that was four first in your division. Now you're going on the road again, right? Back-to-back road games. That's hard. That's a really tough spot to be put in this Carolina team and PJ. And PJ played so well in that game against Atlanta. I just can't see him doing it again against a Bengals team. Their defense, those two touchdowns they gave up to the Browns in the second half, first touchdowns they gave up all season in the second half. So just a bounce-back spot for the Bengals. I love it. Back-to-back weeks, I was taking Fox on a favorite. 49ers last week, this week, the Bengals. Yeah, I'm down with that. Let's put it in the foxhole. Let's climb down into the foxhole.”
42-21 — Bengals beat Panthers 42-21, covering -7 by a 21-point margin (ESPN box score).
“Bears five point underdogs at home against the visiting Dolphins. We don't have a choice. Another game where we have to do it. We have to take the Bears. I love what I've been seeing from the Bears since the bye.”
35-32 — Dolphins beat Bears 35-32; Chicago lost by 3, covering +5 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to get sucked in here. Chargers visiting Atlanta. The Falcons plus three and a half. The NFC South leading Falcons. They are one game up on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints. Hey, let's take a flashback to our NFC South preview episode from August. Well, what do you want to say about your favorite team, the Falcons? 28-1 to win the division. Four and a half is a win total. Chad, the only reason we like them is because they're 28-1 to win the division. Way too big. Atlanta's just left for dead. There's no hype. It's just gross. That's where I come in. It's too big. Like, Atlanta should not be 28-1 to win this division. I'm fine with putting $100, $200 on this kind of bet. But, you know, come December, there are one or two games back. I can hedge out of it. Like they just not 28 to one to win this division bad The Falcons plus three and a half I mean we don have a choice Like again this is probably going to be in our big balls but of the week so all the people listening live you're getting a head start here. Grab it. I'd grab it.”
20-17 — Chargers beat Falcons 20-17; Atlanta lost by 3, covering +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“We talked about some games that we like. I mentioned Seattle plus two. And I liked it to about one. I mentioned two and a half. It opened to three. It's down to two and a half now, too. You agree or disagree? We're both blinded by the light. We love Seattle. They've been good to us. Like we almost put them in the contest at minus three and a half because we just like them that much. They're good. They're just a good team. Gino is good right now. Like the passes he had to lock it were incredible. His deep ball is really good. Even DK Metcalf, who was banged up, was making huge plays for them. And then Kenneth Walker, the running back, has just been a lightning rod for them. Like the guy is really hard to break down, tackle and break down. So everything Chad going to say is true about Seattle I wanted to take them right when they opened up three I did throw a little bit on it because it was like okay this is a good number How can I not I don't know what to do. I don't know what to do here, Chad. It feels like I'm being sucked in on my love. Here's what we know. We know that defensively they're relatively the same. You look at yards per carry, same bracket, yards per attempt, defensively passing, same bracket. But Seahawks are just so superior offensively right now. With a quarterback, statistically, on the stats that matter, looking inside, yards per attempt offensively, yards per carry, they're crushing it. Kenneth Walker is going to win Rookie of the Year at this point. He was amazing against the Giants. The bookmakers got lazy, and they opened the Cardinals with minus three because it was a divisional game between two teams they think are even, and they made them three-point favorites at home, and that's not the right side. Just don't hold against us, people. Like right now I'm on Seattle. Let me talk to the boys and find out if me and Chad are stepping in one because this feels too easy. I'm with Chad. Like right when I saw that plus three, I grabbed it. Not shocked at all.”
31-21 — Seahawks beat Cardinals 31-21, covering +3 with the outright win (ESPN box score).
“road 12 and a half points uh underdogs against the kansas city chiefs got a text from a buddy called Snoop, Snoopy, the dog, Tennessee. He said, we got to take Tennessee this week. I said, me'll talk about it. I don't know what to do. Like, I'd hear more from people why they love Tennessee. When I first saw this number, I liked Tennessee and the fact that it's a huge number for the Chiefs at home. Historically, they let teams hang in this. I mean, I can even all the time in my head, I can think of Jordan Love's game with Green Bay. Like, that game, Jordan Love might have completed five passes. They somehow covered the 11-half spread, wherever it was that Green Bay was. I don't know what to do. Like the Chiefs historically don't perform well as big favorites. It's usually a spot you go the other way. So the fact that a pro text me mid-show that we need to talk about Tennessee, you know, makes me know where the pros are at. I'm not going to be surprised hearing the sharp calls. A lot of pros are going to be on Tennessee. I don't know. Don't feel comfortable doing it. So maybe that's even more reason I'm doing it because Malik just could not move the ball in Houston. Houston's defense is much worse than this Chiefs defense's. And this is Arrowhead, right? So it's a lot to put on a rookie QB. Maybe it's just the fact that it's Derrick Henry. King Henry right now is looking like the best running back in football doing it all. Maybe Christian McCaffrey. I shouldn't say that. Man, that's a tough one, Chad. What are you thinking with this one? Are we going Tennessee here? Yeah, we're totally going with Tennessee here. You just mentioned, by the way, you didn't want to pull the trigger on Tampa to win the NFC South. So again Simon is talking about on Green Dot Daily this morning we talked about the picks that we were looking at And then we talked about at this point in the year in the NFC South the Falcons are in first the Bucs are in second And in the NFC what was the other division It was the NFC West. The Seahawks were in first and the Niners were in second. So we're talking about like if you're buying futures on the division, who do you buy? We both wanted to hold on the Bucs and buy the Niners. But... I think I saw – I looked at this this morning and thinking about today's events and was like, yeah, I think we're going to bet the Titans. Yeah. Again, it just feels like a situational play and a huge number. You've seen Vrabel get his team up for these kind of games. Yeah. The defense just plays for him in these spots. So we could have pie in our face, me and Chad, and we're down 28-0, and there's zero chance that Tennessee could come back in a game like that. But what we're hoping for is a 13-10 at half or something like that, just a game that's sloppy and tennis. You can keep close and that's the game that they're going to try to play. So big number already got pros texting me about during a live show. It's probably a smart move. So I'll just shut up and agree with Chad and take that number.”
20-17 — Chiefs beat Titans 20-17 in overtime; Tennessee lost by 3, comfortably within +12.5, so Titans covered (ESPN box score).
“Executive decision from me is Lions plus three and a half.”
DET 27, MIA 31 — Dolphins beat Lions 31-27; Detroit +3.5 busts, margin -4 (ESPN).
“no no so I love the Texans at plus two and a half here as you were talking hoping to get the three”
HOU 10, TEN 17 — Titans beat Texans 17-10; Houston +2.5 busts, margin -7 (ESPN).
“no no so I love the Texans at plus two and a half here as you were talking hoping to get the three though right the public will keep hammering uh Tennessee so if me check I get three in the contest three and a half that'd be amazing i got no issue taking my two and a half though well listen as as you were talking um i went into the action network app i clicked on this game i used fandua quick slip and made the bet as you were talking it took me about 13 seconds it was that easy what number i took it at two and a half two and a half i'm okay with taking it at two and a half”
HOU 10, TEN 17 — Titans beat Texans 17-10; Houston +2.5 busts, margin -7 (ESPN).
“Simon says it's Browns plus three.”
CLE 32, CIN 13 — Browns beat Bengals 32-13; Cleveland +3 covers, margin +19 (ESPN).
“that I have completely fallen in love with over the past few days. And we talked about it on the podcast earlier this week. You asked my opinion. I didn't love it, but I felt like we had to do it. The Arizona Cardinals. And the more I look at this, I was doing some research this morning. On my own, I was doing the research. And then I listened to Raybon and Stucky on the Action Network podcast, and they confirmed it for me. This is a different team with DeAndre Hopkins. And I said this the other day. This team, Kyler Murray, 17 and 10 with DeAndre Hopkins, 6-13 and 1 without him. Hopkins comes back, goes for 10, 103 last week. They're playing a Minnesota team that I still think is a bit of a fraud and has been getting lucky. And their defense is dreadful. Defense is the last three games. They've had fewer yards per play than the team they played, which to me shows the other team has actually played better. They've gotten good bounces. There's a regression. they are terrible at covering a number one receiver everything to me lines up and i will say this i got a theory we're about to enter november cliff kingsbury usually turns into the worst coach in the nfl in november what if we're living in a bizarro cliff kingsbury universe where because he's getting deandre hopkins back and because the cardinals were so bad early in the year, the Cardinals actually become good. So I like the Cardinals plus four. Love them. Love them in the contest. Love them in the contest.”
MIN 34, ARI 26 — Vikings beat Cardinals 34-26; Arizona +4 busts, margin -8 (ESPN).
“too late it's a bed off vikings one o'clock at home i should have known better to get sucked in on this cardinals love of course they're giving us plus three and a half they want us to take this game so bad they're begging you to take arizona guess what the public is doing they're coming in heavy on arizona chad getting sucked in the hopkins hype i'm gonna lose money on kirk i've already accepted it i gotta back it so this sadly will not be in our contest because there's no way I'm taking the Cardinals here. Had a couple calls about it. A couple of sharps on the Vikings as well. But that didn even flip me It was just more looking at the data It just like Arizona sucks They probably should have lost to New Orleans last week They got very lucky on two pick sixes before the half They haven't fixed a lot of their issues. I like the Hopkins move. I agree. It's a big upgrade for them. He doesn't fix anything for them on offense. They got major issues. So, to me, Vikings, full game, Vikings first half, fuck the Cardinals.”
MIN 34, ARI 26 — Vikings beat Cardinals 34-26; Minnesota -3.5 covers, margin +8 (ESPN).
“Moneyline, round robin, parlay. I mean, obviously we're going with the lions. I think we got to go with the Texans Washington yeah can we get a big dog that's a good because that was nice last week obviously it didn't Only hit on the one, the Seahawks. But if Houston would have came through, that would have been a really nice pairing. You throw the Jets in there? Jets, Lions, Texans, Washington, and the Jets. I know Matt Mitchell is putting this all into the chat for the live listeners right now. It pains me to do it, but they're the only team I could see of all the big favorites get upset. Eagles. I could just see this scenario that I'm sleepwalking in this game, even though, again, I'm taking the Eagles. Why would we not put the Cardinals in there instead of the Eagles? We can. That's fair. I'm just trying to get a big dog because all these dogs are little. Like, I like having one big guy in there because that really juices the odds. But this is a little dog week. Like, there's no really big dogs. Because I know we didn't talk about, like, another survivor play is the Cowboys, obviously, against the Bears. So, like, there's no way I'm picking the Bears that went out right. There's no world I picked Green Bay that went out right. Yeah, they're just not – there's no really good big dogs this week. um lions texans washington jets cards that's what i think we should do all right lions texans washington jets cards”
Week 8 underdog moneyline round robin: Lions lost (Dolphins 31-27), Texans lost (Titans 17-10), Commanders won (17-16 over Colts), Jets lost (Patriots 22-17), Cardinals lost (Vikings 34-26); only one of five legs wins so the parlay busts (ESPN).
“all comes down to coaching so when I look at this game the Jags and the Broncos yeah I would love to fade this Broncos team that just seems like they're completely falling apart who's to say the Jaguars on either. Again, this is it for their season. So that would be, I guess, my reason you can take them here. But again, last week, we went three no on Tuesday unders I gave out. This is another game I'll be on the under. It's just don't overthink it. To me, two really good defenses. Like last week, the Jaguars played really well against that Giants offense. I see the same thing against a Denver team that just can't move the ball. Denver defense is good. Like they took everything away last week and they still couldn't do anything. I only gave up 16 points at home, couldn't get the win i just see the broncos playing hard still on defense um to me this is i mean chad we might be able to talk into it because we always do on the drag wires i just can't put them in our contest they just are not good to us so to me it's a stay away i actually feel like by by thursday this will be on the broncos yeah i think this might be this might get us some sharp calls and i think by thursday this ends up being our big balls better of the week. By the way, the total, you mentioned the under, the total in this game is 39 right now.”
JAX 17, DEN 21 — Broncos beat Jaguars 21-17; combined 38 stays under 39 (ESPN).
“So it's maybe I'm walking into a chat and I felt like I was last week with the Jets. It hit like the Jets won for us. I'm going to keep Ryan. I just think it's another good spot to get divisional team dog at home with a great defense. I like this matchup. Yeah, it actually goes against. It goes against our usual signals, right? Because the Patriots are a team that just got blown out and in prime time. the Jets are all of a sudden a public darling so you'd almost expect the Jets to be favored and to fade the Jets in this scenario yet they're plus two and a half it makes no sense”
NYJ 17, NE 22 — Patriots beat Jets 22-17; New York +2.5 busts, margin -5 (ESPN).
“dogs yeah it's a panthers on the road at the falcons uh falcons are four and a half auto play falcons i don't care right falcons falcons falcons falcons falcons”
ATL 37, CAR 34 — Falcons beat Panthers 37-34 in OT; Atlanta -4.5 busts, margin +3 (ESPN).
“So this line stinks. But at the same time, I think you're getting good value. I got this at minus three for Vegas. Again, better offense, more talented defense. I'm just trying not to overrate the Saints team like I have been, where I like their identity of running the ball. It doesn matter if any don turn the ball over again for interceptions last game They not all on him but some of them are just terrible reads and that the problem with any Dalton and I don know the Raiders to me in this position Anything under three kind of has has to be a buy I don know if it going to make our contest but I be on it The minus one and a half or minus two.”
NO 24, LV 0 — Saints beat Raiders 24-0; Las Vegas -2 busts, margin -24 (ESPN).
“Do I like him enough to bet him at plus nine and a half against the Cowboys? I really want to. Doesn't it feel like the Cowboys stole one last week? I mean, the Lions were covering all 58 minutes. Yeah. I mean, the amount of assholes that texted me were feeling so proud about their call on Dallas. Again, I didn't have that much on the Lions, but I sure as hell didn't bring it up to Chad Sunday morning. There were Lions 7.5 and the Houston 7.5, and I was just like, if I even mention this, Chad's going to make us put these in, because that's a good value on two teams. Yeah. Luckily, I didn't even bring it up. Chad didn't, because he asked me what games we had in. I left the Lions out, because I had them in on Wednesday. He's getting seven and a half. I feel like that was a good number, but yeah, these assholes are right. I could not believe the Lions didn't cover that number. So yeah, looking at this week with the Cowboys, how lucky can they be? Like they're getting a team and the Bears that's young and experienced off a huge primetime win. Now going on the second road game, autoplay every time on the Cowboys here.”
DAL 49, CHI 29 — Cowboys beat Bears 49-29; Dallas -9.5 covers, margin +20 (ESPN).
“Lions plus three and a half on FanDuel. [41:08] I'm going to say it right now. [41:10] Executive decision.”
DET 27, MIA 31 — Dolphins beat Lions 31-27; Detroit +3.5 busts, margin -4 (ESPN).
“Cardinals on the road at the Vikings. Cardinals are four-point underdogs. this is a sneaky one to me this game yeah because I know what you want to do what do I want to do you want to take the Cardinals I do are we going to do that I didn't know what to do with this game because as soon as it came out I like backing Kirk at home but yeah that's a I don't know that's a lot of points to Kirk to be favored by it I do think it's probably because of the record right and everyone's just off the Cardinals so I'm I'm there with Chad it's it's a pro play it's just like Pittsburgh. I really want to take Pittsburgh against Miami, held my nose and did it. And again, got rewarded for it I guess I got to do it with the Cardinals It just it a smart number three and a half against a Vikings team that they just can blow teams out They keep every game close It doesn matter how good or bad you are So I like that play I like it because I just don't think you can underestimate the return of DeAndre Hopkins. Yeah. No, he's been great. I can't knock it. I said it last week. I know, but that was New Orleans, dude. New Orleans threw two pick sixes before the half. I mean, and they made it a ball game to end it. The Cardinals are just bad. They are a bad team, but I just – I'm going to keep getting caught by this Vikings team because, like, again, Miami should have beat them outright, and they didn't even cover in that game. So maybe the Vikings will be like the Giants. They'll just keep catching me trying to chase this – you know, chase the dragon, but I got to do it. I got to take the Cardinals here.”
MIN 34, ARI 26 — Vikings beat Cardinals 34-26; Arizona +3.5 busts, margin -8 (ESPN).
“Commanders, plus three at the Colts. The Sam Ellinger era begins. Taylor Heineke. Taylor made to bet. Like, you got two terrible quarterbacks, two teams no one cares about. It's a corner TV game. How are you not betting this game? Any self-respecting bettor must put money on this game. I was thinking about making this my assignment says I got another one because this is going to be the most public side. I was hoping it was going to be Matt Ryan. Right. At plus four. That was a gift when it was Matt Ryan and a quarterback. Yeah. Not that I have any faith in this kid, Sam. I'm happy to fade him. Get the plus three. I didn't I wouldn't have moved the number that much. So let's be honest. Like we'll see again. Maybe Ryan, Matt Ryan was what was holding together this team. I just, the guy had the most turnovers, the most sacks across the board. The most interceptions, the most fumbled, most sack player right now in football was Matt Ryan. So I don't know what to do with it because I think Chad Nailer, where it's like the dog, whatever, if the Colts were the underdog, I would have taken them. Washington's the underdog, I'll take them. These teams are interchangeable. The Washington's just slightly better on paper with what they have on offense. But we'll see. Again, Jonathan Taylor, he has not gotten going. Like that's the thing right now with the Colts. We're just waiting to see if he can get going. And maybe that's why they're making their move. Or they really are tanking. Because, again, there's five good quarterbacks this year. They're 0-2 against Tennessee. I guess they're taking a position in tanking. But it's just bizarre to me. Again, you have Nick Foles as the backup now. I don't really know what the Colts are doing here. But, yeah, I wanted to make this Simon Says. But, again, I think this is the number all week. But I'm going to grab it now anyway, plus three.”
IND 16, WSH 17 — Commanders beat Colts 17-16; Washington +3 covers, margin +1 (ESPN).
“All right. 49ers in the foxhole. We're in the foxhole. 49ers. Let's climb down into the foxhole. 49ers minus one and a half. Foxhole.”
LAR 14, SF 31 — 49ers beat Rams 31-14; San Francisco -1.5 covers, margin +17 (ESPN).
“OK but I would still take three Even then you still take it which means your Simon says if you tell me your Simon says if you going against Matt Mitchell and the Buffalo Bills with the Green Bay Packers at plus 11 and a half man, that is just mean. No, I'm crazy. I'm not that crazy. Even though I do think this is probably the time to buy on Green Bay, what did we talk about when the Bills played Pittsburgh many weeks ago? Josh Allen is a double-digit favorite. He's 6-1 ATS in his career. He beats the shit out of bad teams, and he enjoys doing it. Love it. Matt Mitchell, didn't you guys just have a bye week? Yeah, we've just spent two weeks having everyone tell us we're the best team in football. So, yeah, I don't disagree that it might be a time to fade, but it's just a stay away. It's just a stay away situation. So what are we doing here? Are we passing? So I was going to say, this is another opportunity where if you want to play it safe, you could just do Bill's second half because that's been cashing this year, taking them second half on the spread. But again, I'm on two big favorites this week. One's the Eagles. The other one's going to be the Bills.”
BUF 27, GB 17 — Bills beat Packers 27-17; Buffalo -11.5 busts, margin +10 (ESPN).
“The Bengals visiting the Browns. The Browns are three point underdogs at home. I know what you're going to say here. So go ahead and say it. Simon says, take the Browns. No brainer.”
CLE 32, CIN 13 — Browns beat Bengals 32-13; Cleveland +3 covers, margin +19 (ESPN).
“But yeah, to me, the Jaguars, as soon as that number opened, it was a no brainer. And then all the trends and numbers start pouring in and it makes you pause. But it doesn't change my position. But yeah, like that, I think someone was saying it was what, two and 14, the Jaguars are playing against NFC teams, their last 16. So it's like, I think I put too much into Doug changing the culture in one year where it looks like it's going to take a little while here, like a culture that is just, just loses. I mean, yeah, and that Blake Bortles year, that was a special year. don't we all saw through that right that was just a kind of a fluky year the jaguars made it always this afc championship game they've done nothing but go backwards since then so um jaguars team as a pro me and chad are gonna bet it we're probably gonna end up talking about it and put in the competition but it's a bizarre line like the books are getting money on the giants and they're keeping it at three and people are thinking they're getting a good good number on a five and one team against what I just talked about, a bad team in the Jaguars. But again, this is a spot where I have to trust the numbers and take the Jaguars.”
NYG 23, JAX 17 — Giants beat Jaguars 23-17; Jaguars -3 loses outright, spread busts (ESPN).
“I clicked on Washington plus five and a half,”
WSH 23, GB 21 — Commanders beat Packers 23-21; Washington +5.5 covers (ESPN).
“contest uh the other game houston plus seven it's another one we're like two teams similarly ranked offensively and defensively uh the raiders are seven point favorites at home 70 of the tickets on the Raiders 80 of the money on the Texans just based on that you play the Texans but this number is so big I cannot figure out why this number is so big yeah no again we might be stepping in someone pointed out to me that me and you were on all three of the dogs for the late games me and Chad don't even think that way honestly we're just picking games I didn't realize that yeah I mean either yeah I hear it like yeah I'm sure statistically a favorite's going to win me and chat don't bet that way like i'm not only going to pick a dog or just pick a favorite just to have one in there um i'm with you houston that feels like a good number to me at seven scary a little bit because exactly what you just said it feels like the jets last week where i'm trying not to get scared off the number just trust that it's a good number where it's like in what world should green bay have we been catching seven and a half against the jets same thing here in what world is vegas seven points better than houston than anyone yeah i mean they just haven't shown it to this point so houston just plays games close and they let teams back in it i just again i'm with you chad i'm hoping this is seven and a half in our contest because that would be a great number for this but um at seven it's it's still a good strong play for me”
LV 38, HOU 20 — Raiders beat Texans 38-20; Houston +7 busts, margin -18 (ESPN).
“What about the Falcons plus six? I feel like this is the game that is a line of demarcation. We talk about value. We talk about getting out of the peak, getting out of the peak of the market. It feels too big for me to still be playing Cincinnati as a six favorite But are we pressing our luck I think it takes balls We betting a six and a zero team ATS. Are you saying right now the Atlanta Falcons are a big balls better the week? I am. Big balls better the week.”
CIN 35, ATL 17 — Bengals beat Falcons 35-17; Atlanta +6 busts, margin -18 (ESPN).
“Yeah. We're going to put in the Falcons. I didn't realize people said we went three and two last week. Let's go. Falcons. We're going to put in there. Seattle. Yep. Niners. Yep. Washington. Yep. And then who else? Nope. There's a bunch of different avenues. We could go here. Like every orifice in my body. You already said Houston, right? I didn't say Houston. I said Atlanta, Seattle, Niners, Washington. Houston jumps out just because, again, who's Vegas be catching that many points. Like we have to take the value on that one. And then just because of injury report and no one else is doing it. Like I know no one else is doing this. Cleveland's money line against a team in Baltimore that has just melted against so many teams in this fourth quarter. Like it just jumped out. So that's terrible. Let's put Houston in. All right. Houston, Houston over the Browns. That's fair. All right. Money line, Ron Robin, Atlanta, Seattle, Niners, Washington, Houston.”
Week 7 moneyline round robin: Falcons lost (Bengals 35-17), Seahawks won (37-23 over Chargers), 49ers lost (Chiefs 44-23), Commanders won (23-21 over Packers), Texans lost (Raiders 38-20); two of five legs win so the parlay busts (ESPN).
“It's going to be an ugly game. So give me the Cardinals.”
ARI 42, NO 34 — Cardinals beat Saints 42-34; Arizona Cardinals moneyline covers (ESPN).
“the giants the very lucky giants are visiting the jaguars jaguars are minus three right now are we wrong about the jaguars we are in love with the jaguars and i feel like the jaguars have been the team where we have let us down that our biases are getting in the way is it though they were that took a third and 10 last second touchdown Like that was brutal But that just gambling I don't know. I don't, I don't want to react to it too much. Both these teams are burned us in totally opposite ways. Of course we should be, I'm betting. I can tell you right now, I'm betting Jaguars.”
NYG 23, JAX 17 — Giants beat Jaguars 23-17; Jaguars -3 loses outright, spread busts (ESPN).
“Simon says bet the Washington Commanders plus five and a half.”
WSH 23, GB 21 — Commanders beat Packers 23-21; Washington +5.5 covers (ESPN).
“Falcons, 6-0 against the spread. We have bet them basically every week. Talking about, is it time to get off a team? They are on the road, at the Bengals, six-point underdogs. It feels like a really big number for the Falcons, but I am starting to worry about regression. for who the Falcons yeah I don't know their their run scheme seems to work like it's really weird and exotic and teams don't seem like they know how to defend against it because they're the only ones that are really running this it's like an army navy's three back set with Mariota as the running back QB um I look the other way like six points against Cincy have they won a game by one six points in like seven months I don't know like their whole playoff run was this um it's it's bizarre like this number again i'm with chad where it's like we got to hop off last week was simple for me with atlanta like that yep that we we spotted that a mile away of just 49ers in a letdown spot um bangles i want to say they're in due for a letdown spot but they're not really like this isn't a letdown spot where it's more so for atlanta but it's a big number and atlanta keeps games close so i feel like i'm going against two things here it's like i know for a fact since doesn't like to win big and they usually keep games close. I know what Atlanta is. Atlanta keeps games close and they just run it. And I saw last week the Saints were able to move the ball on the ground against this Bengals defense. Bengals, again, I told the stat last week, they have only given up one or zero touchdowns in the second half this year. Like their defense is better than people think. That was their first over of the year last year. So maybe I'll be wrong and their defense will show up and completely shut down this Atlanta offense. And like Chad said, they're 6-0 ATS. They're due for a letdown spot in a letdown game. But it hard for me to get off That just such a big number for a Bengals team that just plays games close Yeah I surprised the market isn adjusting to this yet Are you though Because there still plus 700 to win their division even though they should have beat the Saints and they should have probably upset the Bucs. And they're still plus 700 and the Bucs are big favorites. It just seems like we're adjusted. We're all on this Atlanta team. The market is not. The public is still not buying in Atlanta. So I'm going to keep buying because I still think we're getting a good number here, brother.”
CIN 35, ATL 17 — Bengals beat Falcons 35-17; Atlanta +6 busts, margin -18 (ESPN).
“I got an exec decision coming up because I got the Houston Texans on the road at the Raiders plus seven. A choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Now you have your orders. Execute them. Executive decision. Houston Texans, one of the best teams against the spread this year. 75% of the money of the tickets coming in on the Raiders. 64% of the bets coming in on the Texans. show me the texans boom bada boom bada boom yeehaw does that mean that's your executive play yeah another no-brainer play houston they play games close they're not as bad as people perceive raiders hate to play with big leads i feel like every time they even have a lead they somehow give it back again i can't get over that cardinals game i really cannot get over especially after we've seen Cardinals so many weeks in, Raiders should be so much better than their record says they are. But at the same time, who would that be catching seven against a Texas team that can move the ball and has a pretty solid defense? So I know there's a lot of questions to me on this Raiders defensive side. I don't have his money for the Texans. I think they actually have a pretty solid team all around. Their biggest question mark is just the QB position. So I'll be with you, Chad. I'll take that seven put in the contest”
LV 38, HOU 20 — Raiders beat Texans 38-20; Houston +7 busts, margin -18 (ESPN).
“The Seattle Seahawks are on the road They are six and a half point underdogs against the Los Angeles Chargers I don see any reason at this point to not bet the Seahawks when they are nearly a touchdown underdog The Chargers have shown me nothing. I know, but at the same time, this is a coin flip game. That's probably going to end with a seven. So like I feel more comfortable taking the Seahawks money line. I do take in the six and a half, but I'm 100 percent with Chad. As soon as this game came out, it was like seven, seven and a half before the Chargers played.”
LAC 23, SEA 37 — Seahawks beat Chargers 37-23; Seattle +6.5 covers (ESPN).
“The Kansas City Chiefs are on the road. They're visiting the San Francisco 49ers. They are three-point favorites right now. Boxhole. I knew it. Let's climb down into the foxhole. Easy Foxhole 49ers. God, I hate this. If you're new here, me and Chad, we almost always fade Shanahan as a favorite, but we always back them as a dog. And this is a dog position with Shanahan”
SF 23, KC 44 — Chiefs beat 49ers 44-23; San Francisco +3 busts, margin -21 (ESPN).
“two weeks back and getting healthier give me the saints plus two that's it i don't need anxiety”
CIN 30, NO 26 — Bengals beat Saints 30-26; New Orleans +2 busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“still like atlanta but yeah am i shocked it's sitting there still five and a half not really”
ATL 28, SF 14 — Falcons beat 49ers 28-14; Atlanta +5.5 covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“simon says when it was atlanta plus five and a half and the exact decision by me was Cleveland minus three.”
NE 38, CLE 15 — Patriots beat Browns 38-15; Cleveland -2.5 busts badly (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“It now up to six in some places We both bet it Eagles minus four and a half”
PHI 26, DAL 17 — Eagles beat Cowboys 26-17; Philadelphia -4.5 covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“I bet the dolphins plus three and a half.”
MIN 24, MIA 16 — Vikings beat Dolphins 24-16; Miami +3.5 busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“It is, it is by definition we have to do, you got to hold your nose. You got to buy low, you got to sack up and you got to bet the Steelers a plus eight and a half.”
PIT 20, TB 18 — Steelers beat Buccaneers 20-18; Pittsburgh +8.5 covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“It is, it is by definition we have to do, you got to hold your nose. You got to buy low, you got to sack up and you got to bet the Steelers a plus eight and a half. Like you think this takes more balls or do you think taking the Panthers with a new head coach and a no name at quarterback takes bigger balls? I just think that was the other one I was thinking for our big balls, but I, Like, I just think that it takes much bigger balls to bet a team that looks as bad as the Steelers do. To take the Panthers at like, what is it? Plus 10 right now? To take them against a team that nobody has a lot of faith in, in the Rams, that has looked really bad. Everybody's going to be on the Panthers. That doesn't take balls. It's not a betting split, but that's fair. It takes balls to bet the Steelers. It is. And I won't take any of your glory if it hits. This is, this is, I, cause I am betting it,”
PIT 20, TB 18 — Steelers beat Buccaneers 20-18; Pittsburgh +8.5 covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“How about Seattle Seahawks plus three? There we go. That's what I've been waiting on. Love Seattle. Love Seattle. Yeah, I love the matchup of the Seattle offense. I think Geno is, what, number three or number four right now in the league in a QBR rating and a bunch of other pass metrics. The guy is on a roll. His outside weapons, DK, Metcalf, Lockett, healthy. Going up against a secondary of the Cardinals, that has been absolutely terrible. They give up a 30th most receiving yards right now. That's a bad spot for this Cardinals to be put in. And, yeah, no shock. The public has come in heavy on the Cardinals just because there are there are on paper a better team than the Seattle team but I still think they're just being underrated Seattle team again a home dog divisional dog in this position the books might be sucking me and Chad in we'll pay for it because this this is usually really good to us taking this number in this position I'm happy to take Seattle in this spot especially coming off such a brutal non-cover last week when they should have covered feels like we're getting a little bit of value just the fact that people lost money on them last week it doesn't make any sense to me that Arizona is in this, this line is down to based off last year though. They're, they, they made the playoffs. You look at their win total. Yeah. The line, the line is down to two and a half, by the way, it's no longer at three. I hate it. Still take it at two and a half. I agree. Like it doesn't make any sense to me. You've got a better coach in Pete Carroll right now. Yeah.”
SEA 19, ARI 9 — Seahawks beat Cardinals 19-9; Seattle +2.5 covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“They need an identity. So, again, it's scary backing Zach Wilson, but at 7.5, it's still out there at 7.5. Let's grab it. You got to grab it against a Green Bay team that's just struggled this year. The only team they really dominated and put away was the Bears, and we just touched on it. The Bears probably should only lost by seven points. So, I think you're getting a good number with this Jets team. It's going to be a public dog, but I'm on it.”
NYJ 27, GB 10 — Jets beat Packers 27-10; New York +7.5 covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“is the Jags against the Colts. There we go. Yep. I loved it. We were hoping to get the three. We both betted it two and a half. Again, I was going to really lay in big money on this one if they got the three.”
IND 34, JAX 27 — Colts beat Jaguars 34-27; Jacksonville +2.5 busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“it was taking a plus three with the chiefs at home uh i should remind people that our foxhole bet”
BUF 24, KC 20 — Bills beat Chiefs 24-20; Kansas City +3 busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Give me the Commanders.”
WSH 12, CHI 7 — Commanders beat Bears 12-7; Washington moneyline wins (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“line underdog parlay my dog likes your dog your dog likes my dog first one no brainer Everyone knew we take it Dolphins against the Vikings Who the hell are the Dolphins? I don't care if it's a third string or a teddy. If I don't play the number, I'm definitely playing the money line just because this is such a bad spot for a four and one Vikings team. That's a little fraudulent. So I'll take that one on the money line. I wanted the Jaguars. There's no value there anymore, so I'll just throw it away. Give me the Jets. Give me Atlanta. Give me the Saints. Give me the Seahawks. To me, they're all good dogs.”
Moneyline round robin busts: Dolphins lost (MIN 24, MIA 16), Jets won (NYJ 27, GB 10), Falcons won (ATL 28, SF 14), Saints lost (CIN 30, NO 26), Seahawks won (SEA 19, ARI 9) — all per ESPN Week 6 scoreboard.
“The second half of this year in games the Bears have been outstanding And they proved it again this past week This game opened at one I bet the Bears at minus one”
WSH 12, CHI 7 — Commanders beat Bears 12-7; Chicago -1 busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“We move on Yeah All right Bengals two favorites on the road at the saints the line has moved up the bangles getting everything all the money all the tickets look i think i'm going to this foxhole chef we're going with the saints right i mean of course you know me all right let's climb down into the foxhole because the saints are the side here yeah like Of course you take the Saints. No one's going to want it that's listening to the show. Like, if I could have made this our big balls, I would have. Because it's Tuesday. Foxhole. Jump on in. We're going to the Foxhole. New Orleans Saints plus two. No brainer. As soon as this line came out, I knew I was going to be on it. We have a Bengals team that we've seen what they are, right?”
CIN 30, NO 26 — Bengals beat Saints 30-26; New Orleans +2 busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“We move on Yeah All right Bengals two favorites on the road at the saints the line has moved up the bangles getting everything all the money all the tickets look i think i'm going to this foxhole chef we're going with the saints right i mean of course you know me all right let's climb down into the foxhole because the saints are the side here yeah like Of course you take the Saints. No one's going to want it that's listening to the show. Like, if I could have made this our big balls, I would have. Because it's Tuesday. Foxhole. Jump on in. We're going to the Foxhole. New Orleans Saints plus two. No brainer. As soon as this line came out, I knew I was going to be on it.”
CIN 30, NO 26 — Bengals beat Saints 30-26; New Orleans +2 busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Simon says Atlanta plus five and a half. Love it. Exec decision, Cleveland minus three. Love it.”
ATL 28, SF 14 — Falcons beat 49ers 28-14; Atlanta +5.5 covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Chad Millman is going to call an exact decision on the Browns. They are three-point favorites at home against the Patriots. Chad Millman got them at two and a half on Sunday night because he was looking at the Action Network app. He saw that the line, the juice was at minus 120. He knew it would be moving soon. He got the two and a half. The rest of you, I would still take the three. Exact decision. The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Now you have your orders. Execute them. Executive decision. Exec decision. Go with the Brownies. The Brownies did it for me last week against the Chargers. Going to do it for me this week against the Patriots. Right now, betting tickets on the Patriots. Money. The pros are on the Browns. Give it to me.”
NE 38, CLE 15 — Patriots beat Browns 38-15; Cleveland -2.5 busts badly (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Cowboys visiting the Eagles. You can get the Eagles at four and a half point favorites right now. It's a fucking buy for me. Yeah, no brainer.”
PHI 26, DAL 17 — Eagles beat Cowboys 26-17; Philadelphia -4.5 covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Cowboys visiting the Eagles. You can get the Eagles at four and a half point favorites right now. It's a fucking buy for me. Yeah, no brainer. Come on. Are you kidding me? Easy bet.”
PHI 26, DAL 17 — Eagles beat Cowboys 26-17; Philadelphia -4.5 covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“New York Jets plus three is our big balls. Bet of the week.”
NYJ 40, MIA 17 — Jets beat Dolphins 40-17; New York Jets +3 covers easily (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“taking Miami. I'm going minus three and a half. I am all in. So Chad minus three and a half Miami.”
NYJ 40, MIA 17 — Jets beat Dolphins 40-17; Miami -3.5 busts (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“the bills minus 14 and Scrooge roulette. That's how much of a man I am.”
BUF 38, PIT 3 — Bills beat Steelers 38-3 (margin 35); Buffalo -14 covers (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“What happened in the game How did it play out betting wise And then a couple of games they both leaning towards plus a preview of the Monday night game And Brandon had this take on the Dolphins game and the Dolphins minus three and about sort of the comparison of this line versus what it was even a week before And then I remembered watching Teddy Bridgewater and thinking about how bad the Jets are and that they would be a little bit overvalued because they beat the Steelers on the road. And it made sense to me. So I hit the Dolphins minus three and I love it. Yeah. I don't care if me and Jerry stepped in. I'll be on it too.”
NYJ 40, MIA 17 — Jets beat Dolphins 40-17; Miami -3 busts (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“thinking about it like this. Dolphins, road favorites against the New York Jets. Everybody knows who listens to this podcast. The first thing I look for is a home underdog. That's a historically great spot. It's a contrarian spot. It's a spot I love to bet. So on Monday morning, I'm walking the dog again. I'm listening to the Action Network podcast. It's the week four wrap up early preview for week five with Brendan Glashine and Joe Gallant and Brandon Anderson. It's a great show. It's like when I get up on Monday mornings, I just want to recap some things. And this is the perfect show to go through like quick hit. What happened for the weekend? What happened in the game How did it play out betting wise And then a couple of games they both leaning towards plus a preview of the Monday night game And Brandon had this take on the Dolphins game and the Dolphins minus three and about sort of the comparison of this line versus what it was even a week before And then I remembered watching Teddy Bridgewater and thinking about how bad the Jets are and that they would be a little bit overvalued because they beat the Steelers on the road. And it made sense to me. So I hit the Dolphins minus three and I love it. Yeah. I don't care if me and Jerry stepped in. I'll be on it too. Like, I grabbed the three and it came out. Now it's three and a half, which makes total sense.”
NYJ 40, MIA 17 — Jets beat Dolphins 40-17; Miami -3 busts (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“I got the Falcons at eight and a half on Sunday night.”
TB 21, ATL 15 — Buccaneers beat Falcons 21-15; Atlanta +8.5 covers (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“Seattle plus five and a half, which right now is getting 64% of the bets and 87% of the money. Yeah, I bet it too. I don't care. We're walking in it together, brother.”
NO 39, SEA 32 — Saints beat Seahawks 39-32; Seattle +5.5 busts (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“one on the board yet. Seahawks at the Saints, five and a half points. I made four bets Sunday to Monday. We've talked about two of them, the Dolphins and the Falcons. The third one, Seattle plus five and a half, which right now is getting 64% of the bets and 87% of the money. Yeah, I bet it too. I don't care. We're walking in it together, brother. Who cares? Are we in a foxhole? Yeah, sure. We're in the foxhole.”
NO 39, SEA 32 — Saints beat Seahawks 39-32; Seattle +5.5 busts (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“um titans on the road at the commanders i mean the commanders do not deserve our respect as three-point home underdogs and the titans do not deserve our respect as two and a half point road favorites this is a corner tv game i'm off it i'm just gonna bet the titans the simple fact that Everything I read is the team has quit on Rivera and Washington. And, like, let me make some money off that because I stayed away. I think I lost money on them against the Eagles. Stayed away last week because it was just like – again, I just didn't trust their O-line against the Dallas defensive line. And then this week it's just kind of the same feeling of weird number. Tennessee is just good. Like they not great They not like this team that going to I still think Jags are the class of the South They going to win that division But Tennessee at the end of the year being 9 making the playoffs just because it a variable and it's just that kind of grit of a team. No one will be shocked. Like that game last week, Denver versus the Colts, was just classic Titans team. It's like they get a big lead and they just grind out, holding a team off the entire rest of the game. So I'm kind of with you, Chad. I wouldn't put this one in our contest. I thought about it at 2.5 with Titans. Um, cause Washington, honestly is a true train wreck, but a three, I wouldn't put it in. But again, this is when I bet right when it came out, just cause I just, I had to start buying in on all the rumors I'm hearing right now in Washington that they've truly quit on their coach.”
TEN 21, WSH 17 — Titans beat Commanders 21-17; Tennessee -2.5 covers (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“favorites. That's netsuite.com slash favorites. Bears at the Vikings. Bears plus seven, let's say. This team is dreadful. And if it wasn't for the Vikings who just don't know how to close out a game, this would be an automatic take the favorite for me. That's why that's another way for me. Automatic take the Bears here. Yeah, like I'm not taking them. I don't have an opinion on this game. I don't feel strongly about it. I bet it just because I thought the seven was going to disappear quick, but luckily it's still out there in case anyone wants it. But grab the seven or you can just wait and hope it gets seven and a half.”
MIN 29, CHI 22 — Vikings beat Bears 29-22 (margin 7); Chicago +7 pushes exactly (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“literally the very first bet I made on Sunday night Browns plus three put it on the board”
LAC 30, CLE 28 — Chargers beat Browns 30-28; Cleveland +3 covers (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“Cowboys visiting the aforementioned Rams, four and a half point underdogs at Los Angeles. Will it be Cooper Rush? Will it be Dak Prescott? Probably going to be Cooper Rush. Should Cooper Rush be the quarterback from here on out? What would the line be if it's Dak Prescott? Would it be lower? Are you getting a better price if it's being listed as Cooper Rush? Does it matter? Simon, how are you stacking up these quarterbacks? How do you pirate this game? autoplay for me on the rams here like there's just a no-brainer bet where the cowboys that's fun they beat the bangles in a last second win which was like more about the bangles right they kind of stunk that whole game up then what are they going to do they go beat the giants who do we really think the giants are that good nah then they come home they beat the commanders come on so now they're on the road getting all the public love all the public bets all the public money against a ramps team that just looked like absolutely donkey shit last night. It's sometimes I don't even have to do the work. Like I knew I was gonna have a big number on this and it was minus six for me. Sure enough, they hung a four, four and a half. And it was just a no brainer bet for me taking the Rams here. Not fun, right? Because Stafford did get pressure last night and you got going up against this incredible D line of the Cowboys. But come on, this is just too... It's two different worlds here. It's like the top class of the NFC and the Rams playing against a team that I just think they're overachieving right now, and this is kind of where they come back to earth. So, Cowboys, I won't be shocked to see this number drop. So, you could wait if you wanted and hope to get a four here. But I'm going to take it just because I know other pros are going to have the numbers too. And just defensively, this is a nice matchup scheme-wise for the Rams.”
DAL 22, LAR 10 — Cowboys beat Rams 22-10; LA Rams -4.5 busts (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“I texted you on Sunday night and said, it's gross that we have to talk about the Cardinals at plus six when they posted the line to host the Philadelphia Eagles. That line is now five and a half moving in the Cardinals direction. Yeah, I guess that's pro money. I'm going to go against the pros this week, though. I don't I do not see it with Arizona anyway. way like they're just they are bad like they're just the coaching's bad they're bad I can't get over how bad their scheme is and I watch these games and it's just Kyler Murray's so good like whoever whenever they get rid of Cliff and they if they bring in some offensive mind they're going to be so lucky because again I'm with people like I have no idea if this kid studies if he's lazy if all he cares about is just fame and having the money but his talent level is out of this world with Kyler Murray. So if you're betting on that and you're betting on the Eagles have a letdown spot, I get it But I feel like that was that letdown spot against the Jaguars They just got lucky with all the turnovers and they kind of got out there with a win Arizona last seven home games 0 and 7 straight up 0 and 7 against the spread it's something's going on down there they have some reason they're good on the road you fade them at home um I just if the Eagles are getting 98 of the money 90 of the bets I could probably be swayed a little bit in this being like okay I'm walking to a trap here The fact that I'm getting under a touchdown, again, I think Cardinals are a bottom five team in the NFC, and the Eagles are a top two, top three team. I'll take this number every time. The Eagles are just more complete offensively,”
PHI 20, ARI 17 — Eagles beat Cardinals 20-17 (margin 3); Philadelphia -5.5 busts (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“Bengals plus three at the Ravens. look it's a divisional matchup the two best teams in the division in theory till the browns get get full complement of players kind of a pass right like there's no there's no hook there's no there's nothing to play here simon says bet the ravens love this number love it i would take it up to four and a half but you don't even have to because the public's in this keep betting the bangles”
BAL 19, CIN 17 — Ravens beat Bengals 19-17 (margin 2); Baltimore -3 busts (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“Survivor, we're taking the Bills.”
BUF 38, PIT 3 — Bills beat Steelers 38-3; Buffalo moneyline wins (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“Personally, Simon, I still like the Ravens in this spot at plus three.”
BUF 23, BAL 20 — Bills beat Ravens 23-20 (ESPN); Ravens +3 pushes exactly.
“ultimate daily nutritional insurance. I think the Texans are a better big balls, better the week. It's a bigger pro Joe game. The line opened at seven. It's moved to five and a half. I like the edge for the Texans. Rashawn Slater being out for the Chargers. Joey Bosa being out for the Chargers. Justin Herbert. It's at home. You're getting a pretty decent sized home dog. Damian Pierce should dominate them on the ground too. They're running back for Houston. This is a really great matchup for him as well. What do we think of making the Texans our big balls better the week? Love it. Let's lock it up.”
LAC 34, HOU 24 — Chargers beat Texans 34-24 (ESPN); Texans +5.5 busts, losing by 10.
“Like, what do I feel safer with? Yeah. I'm a good Seahawks. Okay. Just because the group I know that took that, like they're they're legit like they're really legit so that's one of those if they're playing that position and they're playing it big they clearly know something here in this matchup so i'm gonna trust that number I know it's going to be four and a half in the contest.”
SEA 48, DET 45 — Seahawks beat Lions 48-45 (ESPN); Seahawks +4.5 covers, winning outright by 3.
“team, the Atlanta Falcons plus two. you love that starting to fall in love with it that's funny because i'm starting to go the other way just because again it's our guy evan abrams i read these trends he posts out and it's just like shit makes me want to go back and look at my numbers but i've already bet atlanta i'm in on atlanta i just love this team but in this position it's usually not good when there's an underdog in week four that's three you know ats at home historically has not been kind to them so I'm with you. I love it. They're just prevailing numbers that say you're kind of walking into it. The books kind of know what they're doing here. But it feels like it's kind of a split game, right? The public money and the bets, it's kind of been flip-flopping every day. Like some days, the Browns are getting the money. The next day, it's been Atlanta. So I don't know. It's an interesting number. It got down to one. Then it went back up to two. So it's been moving all over. Again, I just wish this was three, Chad. So if this was three, it'd be an autoplay for me. The fact that it's not it gives me pause i believe everything that the wise guys have been saying about the falcons and that their offense is remarkably creative and hard to stop the browns are going to be missing jadavian clowny miles gary miles we don't know yet what's happening but uh even if he plays he's going to be pretty banged up i assume he gets suspended though you saw that the info came out they saying now they like basically these people that their jobs to check the tires and whatever from the accident This is speculation Who knows how true all of this is It just happened yesterday his accident I believe They think he going over 100 miles per hour So if that is true we assume he be suspended right That's reckless driving. So as of now, though, he got released from the hospital. He hasn't practiced yet this week. But if nothing comes about it, yeah, that would be huge, right? If they're down two of their biggest D linemen against a team that loves to run the ball. So I'm with Chad on that one. That could be something that flips me come Sunday. I know this is a land. I am literally, I've already bet it. I am literally betting on the Falcons being the better, having the best unit on the field when it comes to a really creative game plan offensively.”
ATL 23, CLE 20 — Falcons beat Browns 23-20 (ESPN); Falcons +2 covers, winning outright by 3.
“So my first underdog, me and Chad already talked about. We love the Texans. That's a good big number. Get that one in there. Tennessee, I know they're the public dog this week and a lot of pros love the Colts. I'll stay away from that number, I guess, because it's down to three now. You're not getting great value, but I'll take the money line. Tennessee's had the Colts number historically in this position. This one isn't as gross. Me and Chad love it from the get-go. Ravens, got to throw it in there. Seahawks, again, two terrible teams. You're getting a big number against the Lions. We knew we were going to throw that one in. And the last one I was going to do, Tampa. The value might not be there now just because the Lions moved around so much. Let's go Broncos. Broncos playing against an 0-3 team. Short dog. I'll take that money line there. I really like this one this week.”
Moneyline round robin parlay busts (ESPN Week 4 scores): Texans ML lost 24-34 to Chargers; Titans ML won 24-17 over Colts; Ravens ML lost 20-23 to Bills; Seahawks ML won 48-45 over Lions; Broncos ML lost 23-32 to Raiders. Three legs lost so the parlay busts.
“Dolphins at Cincy Thursday night. Game opened. Bengals one and a half. it's now up to three and a half full disclosure in the app i bet it's sunday night at two and a half it moved within five minutes bet the bangles what say you”
CIN 27, MIA 15 — Bengals beat Dolphins 27-15 (ESPN); Bengals -2.5 covers, winning by 12.
“but this Vikings number stinks like I bet it too when I saw it because it's like what the hell this is gonna go to three here we are a day and a half later it's still it's still a two and a half so I have no idea what the books think like they they really do believe in the Saints team I think they're hot garbage like I don't know why they haven't adjusted on them give me three and a half four I start thinking Saints two and a half no brainer take the Vikings Hey, by the way, it is two and a half. And right now, about 85% of the money is on the Vikings. It just doesn't make any sense. We're definitely stepping in it. You think so? Yeah. I mean, again, the books could just be hanging a crap number, but if reverse primetime spot for Kirk Cousins, maybe that's what they're banking on. He'll stink it up here, but I don't get it. I just don't see how the, the, in what world the Saints offense with a broken Jameis can keep up with this Vikings offense. Like the Vikings, they're a really talented team. And so to me, it's just an interesting number. It's like the books are really, again, taking a position on the Saints team. They're 0-3. So I don't really know why they're backing them like this. All right. Well, I would love to take this in the contest. It does not concern me at all. I'm getting the better team against a coach I don't believe in, a quarterback who's playing with a broken back, literally, an offense that seems like Alvin Kamara has lost his mojo and Mark Ingram is the bulk of the carries, is like the guy they're counting. and the most in the backfield at 85 years old. I just think this Vikings team is better. I'm getting the better team in a neutral field for less than a field goal. Come on, man.”
MIN 28, NO 25 — Vikings beat Saints 28-25 in London (ESPN); Vikings -2.5 covers, winning by 3.
“Ravens plus three and a half.”
BUF 23, BAL 20 — Bills beat Ravens 23-20 (ESPN); Ravens +3.5 covers, losing by only 3.
“We'll take the money line as well here with the Ravens because historically,”
BUF 23, BAL 20 — Bills beat Ravens 23-20 (ESPN); Ravens moneyline busts.
“Grab that Steelers minus three.”
NYJ 24, PIT 20 — Jets beat Steelers 24-20 (ESPN); Steelers -3 busts, losing outright.
“and when I saw this game on Sunday night, I saw the Jags plus seven and I'm like, that doesn't make any sense to me. I didn't have the courage to better in the moment. Like I wanted to look a little bit deeper. I saw it move to six and a half and immediately took it because, and I'll say right now, this is my executive decision. Executive decision, Chad Millman is proud of himself.”
PHI 29, JAX 21 — Eagles beat Jaguars 29-21 (ESPN); Jaguars +6.5 busts, losing by 8.
“Tampa Bay and Green Bay. We loved this when it was Tampa Bay minus two. It's down to minus one. Yeah, Mike Evans got suspended. Yeah, but he was out when we talked about it the other day. it he appealed i thought he was gonna win honestly the appeal because again i don't know it didn't seem like that big of thing he didn't throw punches he just kind of took a cheap shot pushing the guy but i didn't i i bet at bucks minus two assuming he'd be out completely comfortable i bet bucks”
GB 14, TB 12 — Packers beat Buccaneers 14-12 (ESPN); Buccaneers -2 busts, losing outright.
“I not going to lie to you but we it like we talked about earlier You don want to take it because it was like a little bit of a pick that they have to win And I I come to terms with it I backing Atlanta to win this game against Seattle”
ATL 27, SEA 23 — Falcons beat Seahawks 27-23 (ESPN); Falcons moneyline wins.
“Going back to the well. Jacksonville Jaguars plus seven.”
JAX 38, LAC 10 — Jaguars beat Chargers 38-10 (ESPN); Jaguars +7 covers easily.
“Well, I have now bet the Patriots plus two and a half.”
BAL 37, NE 26 — Ravens beat Patriots 37-26 (ESPN); Patriots +2.5 busts, losing by 11.
“enjoy this moment Chad enjoy it could be it could be it for us all right so I'm putting the Niners in right now the Niners are one and a half point favorites uh against the Denver Broncos um again if someone fills a pillowcase full of bars of syrups and beats the crap out of me to take not take that I won't take it but for right now I just it feels really hard that someone's gonna talk me out taking this 49ers I just think they're getting they hung a shit number and we're getting a good line”
DEN 11, SF 10 — Broncos beat 49ers 11-10 (ESPN); 49ers -1.5 busts, losing outright.
“Simon, give us a round robin here, a Moneyline round robin parlay. All right. Unfortunately, showing two and three last week, Atlanta didn't come through. That was a heartbreaker. This week, I wanted to give out the Colts, but again, our guy, everyone scared me off of it. Apparently, Mahomes doesn't lose in this spot. So we're hoping for the cover. I'm not going to waste your money. Take the L there. So we talked about Miami already. Screw the points. Take the money line. So first one in Miami, second one in New England, third one in Washington fourth one in Jaguars Chad Chad we already talked about we love it the last one I got to do it and again I'll never take them on the spread or anything Arizona I don't know how the Rams are the kind of team that can ever stat like you know have a lead and protect it they just can't run the ball so I have a team in Arizona where I know Kyler American go video game mode I take it three and a half whatever the money line is I throw in the round robin just because this to me is a coin flip game That why that number is so perfect at three and a half There is no real reason to take either side It's truly who the hell knows what you're dealing with in either of these teams. So I love that to cap out around Rob, and it's just a gross finish taking this Cardinals team. All right. Money line, Ron, Rob and Parley, Miami dolphins, new England Patriots, Washington commanders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Arizona Cardinals.”
Moneyline round robin parlay busts (ESPN Week 3 scores): Dolphins ML won 21-19 over Bills; Patriots ML lost 26-37 to Ravens; Commanders ML lost 8-24 to Eagles; Jaguars ML won 38-10 over Chargers; Cardinals ML lost 12-20 to Rams. Two legs lost so the parlay busts.
“Steelers Browns open two and a half this Thursday night football. Got bet up to five and a half. Now it's four and a half. I will tell you, I bet the Steelers at five and a half. That was just too big of an adjustment made no sense for me for this number to be at five and a half 72 percent of the money on the Steelers right now”
CLE 29, PIT 17 — Browns beat Steelers 29-17 in Week 3 Thursday Night Football (ESPN); Steelers +5.5 busts, losing by 12.
“Here's another interesting one. John Harbaugh in his career is the best first half ROI as a coach in his career Lamar Jackson the last five years first half most profitable QB to bet in the first half All that said Ravens are three favorites on the road against the Patriots I feel like the Patriots are not a very good team You know what to do, though. There's only one play here, Chad. We make this bet almost nine out of ten times. The numbers back it up, too, but we play the Patriots here every time. It's, again, Belichick at home is a dog against a team that something's not right there, clearly. Like the Jets were actually moving the ball on this Baltimore team. So if the Ravens are down four cornerbacks again, that's a major issue. Like Mack Jones has looked pedestrian. This could be the cure he needs, a team that's given up the most receiving yards to anyone else in football. So yeah, too much respect for a Ravens team that doesn't deserve the respect right now. I'm with you. Patriots stink, but I take this plus three every time.”
BAL 37, NE 26 — Ravens beat Patriots 37-26 (ESPN); Patriots +3 busts, losing by 11.
“I bet the Colts plus seven this morning.”
IND 20, KC 17 — Colts beat Chiefs 20-17 (ESPN); Colts +7 covers easily.
“no uh the lions are visiting the vikings i don't know why this number is so big right now the lions are six point underdogs in this game the money and the tickets are moving in their direction so The line has moved down from six and a half. Kirk Cousins was terrible on Monday Night Football, which is what we expect. The Lions either can't stop anybody or are the greatest offensive team since the 1982 San Diego Chargers. Dan Campbell continues to be both lovable and sneaky, sneaky smart. Lions plus six, what say you? I like new coming in. I feel like the Vikings are probably gonna be an autoplay for me. Just coming in off the fact that everything you just said like we all love the lines They just had back home games now they going on the road to play divisional foe that just lost that we know one o on a sunday against a divisional team you just take kirk here so to me i gonna work this week trying to convince chad and make this one of our five but this is one of my favorite favorites this week um they had all the opportunity in the world right against the eagles they had a blocked field goal. They had a turnover in their red zone. Like it just wasn't their night. Every little thing they could go wrong went wrong and Kirk looked horrible. You've seen this now 10 times out of Kirk, right? He's doing 10 on Monday night football. Maybe I'll reach out to Evan and try to get the info on what his record is after that Monday night game, but it's gotta be good. Like this is the, this is the buying low on Kirk. And this is where we want to be with Kirk, right? This always works out for me and Chad buying low on Kirk at home on a Sunday. I mean, I want to be all in on the Lions because this is a big deal, right? This would flip, to me, their divisional odds. If the Lions win this game, I think there would be even odds right now to win this division. Obviously, Green Bay would still be at the top. But yeah, huge game for the Lions. I just can't get behind it. It's just like, I get it. They've played well. They had to come back on the Eagles, who looked like world beaters. But I don't think the Vikings are as bad as people perceived it. They just had a really bad night on Monday night against the Eagles. How do you have that? What's your number on this game? Seven. So like, I thought it was good at seven. Like that made sense to me. The fact that dropped a point makes even more sense, right? Like literally what we just saw last night, who's going to back Kirk. There's just a few of us out here. That's going to be like, no, like this is what Kirk does. This is when you want to back Kirk. But I think the public just forgets that they're just so pissed off at him. Cause it's like, you suck Kirk. This is why we all hate you. Or it's like, he's not terrible. He's just average. He's never going to be above average. He just is what he is. I don't know why you feel like you'd have to convince me of that. Well, I just figured you'd be on Lions because we love the Lions. Like we love the Lions. And this is a good number. It's six, six and a half. Listen to me, man. I'm a professional. Okay. I don't bet the emotions. I bet what the right side is. And right now I think you're getting a buy low, sell high spot on the Vikings and the Lions. foxhole on the vikings foxhole it let climb down into the foxhole minnesota vikings because the money did you say the money and the tickets are on Detroit Yeah So yeah Foxhole Foxhole Minnesota Vikings I love it. I freaking love that bet. Let's go, baby.”
MIN 28, DET 24 — Vikings beat Lions 28-24 (ESPN); Vikings -6 busts, winning by only 4.
“just looking at this matchup I think Chad touched on it you have two teams OTS neither of them have covered this season right Carolina's own two just historically in this position you take the underdog and it hits it like a 58 60 percent rate in week three the team that two own teams two own two teams are facing off ATS, you just take the dog in this position. There's another game like that this week. It was at Raiders, Tennessee. So it's kind of one of those where it's like, I already knew I was going to like Carolina. They're going to be a home divisional dog at plus three. The fact that there's going to be trends back in it and James has this major injury, it's a big deal, but I cannot let us, and I will not let us do it to the fans and putting this in our contest again, because I just got so much hate about it. I'm with them. It's like, I, that was so unenjoyable because I just had so I like felt good didn't you feel good with that Carolina game it's like yeah so good yeah it was feeling even during the game I was like no like Baker's having these moments Daniel Jones is falling apart and it's like no like as much as we want to bag on the the Giants Daniel Jones is making the play and the head coach is making the right call so it's like yeah Carolina auto play for me and Chad but no chance let's be one of my five there's other games i like way more than this we 100 felt great honestly we felt great”
CAR 22, NO 14 — Panthers beat Saints 22-14 (ESPN); Panthers +3 covers, winning outright by 8.
“We still got to give people an exact decision and a Simon Says So we got some room to maneuver here putting a pin in the bills dolphin bangles minus four and a half against the jets This line has moved down. I think the look ahead line on this game was seven. So my theory on this, again, I've already bet the bangles at minus four and a half.”
CIN 27, NYJ 12 — Bengals beat Jets 27-12 (ESPN); Bengals -4.5 covers, winning by 15.
“Buccaneers, minus two and a half. Loved it.”
GB 14, TB 12 — Packers beat Buccaneers 14-12 (ESPN); Buccaneers -2.5 busts, losing outright.
“I played the Jaguars at plus seven.”
JAX 38, LAC 10 — Jaguars beat Chargers 38-10 (ESPN); Jaguars +7 covers easily.
“Falcons on the road, two point underdogs against the Seattle Seahawks. What the hell am I going to do here, Chad? You already know we want to bet Atlanta, a great running team against a bad run defense in Seattle with Geno Smith quarterback that could not do a single thing, but we're buying high in Atlanta right now. Yeah. Yeah. So I don't know what to do with this one. Like I really wanted to grab it. It was, I think three interesting. It's back up. That means some pro money must came in on the Seahawks. Cause to me, I don't see any public betting Seahawks. It's going to be probably a pros versus Joe's game. I see the pros probably back in the Seahawks at home and the public taking Atlanta. I'm, I'm torn here. Cause I like Atlanta. I just love their offense. I love their run scheme. And I think they have more playmakers on defense than the Seahawks team does. So this is the rare time I'll be with the public, but I can't be talked out of it. I'll be on Atlanta in this game.”
ATL 27, SEA 23 — Falcons beat Seahawks 27-23 (ESPN); Falcons +2 covers, winning outright by 4.
“We're putting right now Panthers and Saints in there. I think we both feel good about that. But we got some other teams, right? So Jags plus four and a half. We talked a lot about the Jags. They're at home, divisional home dog against a Colts team that the past six, seven years, I forgot, they haven't won in Jacksonville. We both believe the Jags are better than what they showed on Sunday in that they just missed some plays. They were a young team, missed some plays, and were probably amped. I don't think that happens again. And I just don't think the Colts are good enough to be more than a field goal favorite on the road. Bang it. Jacks plus four and a half. Boom. And I hate it. This is probably definitely going to be in our contest. We just have to play it.”
JAX 24, IND 0 — Jaguars beat Colts 24-0; Jaguars covered the +4.5 spread by winning outright (ESPN scoreboard).
“Foxhole, Saints plus three.”
TB 20, NO 10 — Buccaneers beat Saints 20-10; Saints lost by 10, busting the +3 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“Eagles, minus one and a half.”
PHI 24, MIN 7 — Eagles beat Vikings 24-7; Eagles covered the -1.5 spread by winning outright (ESPN scoreboard).
“Ravens, minus three and a half.”
MIA 42, BAL 38 — Dolphins beat Ravens 42-38; Ravens lost outright, busting the -3.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“Jets plus six and a half.”
NYJ 31, CLE 30 — Jets beat Browns 31-30; Jets covered the +6.5 spread by winning outright (ESPN scoreboard).
“These are our five picks. I've just laid them out to review for everybody. Simon says 49ers minus nine and a half. We chose that on Tuesday. Still like it. Both of us like it.”
SF 27, SEA 7 — 49ers beat Seahawks 27-7; 49ers covered the -9.5 spread with a 20-point margin (ESPN scoreboard).
“I bet the Jags Sunday night at plus four and a half.”
JAX 24, IND 0 — Jaguars beat Colts 24-0; Jaguars covered the +4.5 spread by winning outright (ESPN scoreboard).
“While you were talking, I went into the action app, hit 49ers minus nine and a half minus 110.”
SF 27, SEA 7 — 49ers beat Seahawks 27-7; 49ers covered the -9.5 spread with a 20-point margin (ESPN scoreboard).
“Saints, two and a half point home dogs. Of course, you got to play it. If you can get a three, that's great. Bets on the Bucs, money on the Saints, pros, Joes, Give me the Saints.”
TB 20, NO 10 — Buccaneers beat Saints 20-10; Saints lost by 10, busting the +3 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“So the Giants had no business winning this game and they will be worse at home because that's what Danny Dimes does. Panthers plus two and a half. We've just added it to the list.”
NYG 19, CAR 16 — Giants beat Panthers 19-16; Panthers lost by 3, busting the +2.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“put it in the contest game was over four minutes in there on the road at the Raiders, Raiders five and a half Raiders look better than we planned, or I shouldn't say better than we planned. I thought that game was closer than even five points. And so Raiders minus five and a half against the Cardinals team that I think is terrible. Yeah, I know it's so chalky, but I'm I bet it. I bet them. I think it was opened at three and a half. I got it when I was at four I thought about it again four and a half I was like you know I wait I bet you it goes back to four And then it went right up to five and a half So clearly a group took a position on that I have no doubt I find out who in the next 24 hours”
ARI 29, LV 23 — Cardinals beat Raiders 29-23 in OT; Raiders lost outright, busting the -5.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“Falcons on the road at the Rams. Two teams desperate for a win. Falcons plus ten and a half. I mean, the money's coming in on the Falcons. I guess you take the Falcons. You kind of hold your nose, but I'm not dying to. Yeah. It's not a contest play. no I bet it though it's like I like this Falcons team me and Chad like them coming in did I know”
LAR 31, ATL 27 — Rams beat Falcons 31-27; Falcons lost by 4, covering the +10.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“The Titans are 10-point underdogs. This number has popped. This is an inflation station line to me. It's ugly to play it, but you kind of have to. primetime game one team got embarrassed the other team looked like their shit don't stink everyone's all in on the bills where i go back and watch the film and i saw josh allen look flustered had a bunch of turnovers had a bunch of under throws on his deep balls that worked out and the biggest advantage for them that rams game was the rams could not keep on the field so by the second half the rams defense was shot like josh allen mean mean mean chad both agreed we think he's the best athlete, best player right now in football just because of what he can do. He's bigger, faster, stronger than everybody, and has one of the best arms in football, and is very accurate. So, scared because Josh Allen didn't have a good game, and his team won by, I don't even know what the final score was, it would have been by 24. It's just, man, this Bills team is so good, but this is going to be our lives, Chad. All season, we're going to be taking the value on the dog, and a dog against the Bills is always going to be overvalued. Like, this number has bumped up probably three points just because the Titans laid such a bad egg and the bills look like world beaters so yeah i wish i could make it one of our five maybe i'll get pushed into it but there's a different game on monday that i like a little more um oh boy so to me it's it's tough where i i just love the fact we're getting so many points but josh allen scares the shit out of me man like i hated that experience on thursday he's just so good every time he needs a first down he gets either run or gabe davis or stefan digs man it's Just, man, bills are so complete. Well, look, let's talk about, I'm going to bet the Titans, but it doesn't have to be part of our five.”
BUF 41, TEN 7 — Bills beat Titans 41-7; Titans lost by 34, busting the +10 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“um but right now we like the lions plus four atlanta plus five and a half houston plus seven”
PHI 38, DET 35 — Eagles beat Lions 38-35; Lions lost by 3, covering the +4 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“i'm just busting your balls um so let's talk about uh the other one that we were really into so by the way i'm going to make atlanta plus five and a half that's in the fave five yeah no brainer 100 100%. We're in. We're in.”
NO 27, ATL 26 — Saints beat Falcons 27-26; Falcons lost by 1, covering the +5.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“I all in on it I put my flag on it I going to look like a jackass if it doesn hit So I might as well lean into it Plus seven and a half Houston at Fandle Give it to me on Scrooge Trillette Wow I am going to go on my I hating it as I say it Atlanta plus five and a half”
IND 20, HOU 20 — Colts and Texans tied 20-20 in OT; Texans covered the +7.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“Win this game bro Win this game All right I putting Steelers plus six and a half in the locked column”
PIT 23, CIN 20 — Steelers beat Bengals 23-20 in OT; Steelers covered the +6.5 spread by winning outright (ESPN scoreboard).
“are you ready are you ready seattle seahawks plus six and a half on monday night football”
SEA 17, DEN 16 — Seahawks beat Broncos 17-16; Seahawks covered the +6.5 spread by winning outright (ESPN scoreboard).
“Let's just use the Ravens.”
BAL 24, NYJ 9 — Ravens beat Jets 24-9; Ravens won outright on the moneyline (ESPN scoreboard).
“Before we get to Scooch Roulette, which is our head-to-head, I will let you choose first. Let's do our Moneyline Underdog Round Robin. Parley. So, Chad, for my favorite Round Robin, our gross Underdog Round Robin that people hated on, but it cashed nine out of 18 weeks. Maybe we skipped week one, but I know it went nine and seven or nine and eight. Let's start off right away. Steelers plus 220 on the road against Cincy. Love it. Divisional dog on the road against a team that lost the Super Bowl. We take this every time. Somebody got to be all in for everybody to be all in. Texans plus 300 against a Colts team that historically is terrible on opening week. Again, we talked about it. They lost to a one in 15 Jags, the only one of the season for the Jaguars. Hold your nose. Throw them in this round, Robin. Crazy max value. Next up, the Atlanta Falcons. Chad knows we talked about. We just love these divisional home dogs. And this is a great spot for Atlanta team playing, again, against a rookie head coach on the road with Jameis Winston, who loves to throw picks. Give it to me every time. I love this number so much. This is going to be in a lot of my, like, you know, if I'm doing multiple round robins, I'll probably have Atlanta and a decent amount of them, including the Texans as well. Next up, the Lions. How can we forget about the Lions, right? Plus 165 right now, plus 160, depending on what number you can get. Everyone's going to be on it. It's a trendy dog. I don't care. I love the Lions to pull the upset off, shock the world, start the season with a win If they going I don even know what was 0 last year to start the year Do it Lions This is it So for the last one Chad who do you think we should fill in for our fifth spot Let's do the Jags against the Commanders. Plus 120 on the action app. Yeah, plus 120. You know, it's a little bit riskier than betting the Vikings, but we're both big fan of the Jags. We like them as a long shot to win the AFC South. We're both invested heavily in Trevor Lawrence props for the year. Let's add the Jags. Our five for the round robin will be the Steelers, the Falcons, the Texans, the Lions, and the Jags. That is for the Moneyline Underdog Round Robin Parlay.”
Round robin legs re-verified: Steelers ML won (PIT 23, CIN 20 OT); Falcons ML lost (NO 27, ATL 26); Texans ML pushed (tie IND 20, HOU 20 OT); Lions ML lost (PHI 38, DET 35); Jaguars ML lost (WAS 28, JAX 22) (ESPN scoreboard).
“was the Rams plus two and a half. Classic overvalued team in a Bills team that's the”
BUF 31, LAR 10 — Bills beat Rams 31-10; Rams lost by 21, busting the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“But definitely Lions plus four.”
PHI 38, DET 35 — Eagles beat Lions 38-35; Lions lost by 3, covering the +4 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“Give me the Texans here. I like him at seven. Probably the lowest I like him,”
IND 20, HOU 20 — Colts and Texans tied 20-20 in OT; Texans covered the +7 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“Right now, they're 16 to one to win the Super Bowl. But I also love the Bears as a hometown Chicago fan. The Bears are plus seven in this spot. If not for my anti-Bears bias as a fan, this would be an automatic play to me. And the way the percentages are shaping up, 71% of the bets on the Niners, 68% of the money on the Bears. So the wise guys see it that way too. Yeah, I bet this game like a damn coward. It's one of the few games I bet like a coward. Took 49ers first half, took Bears for the game.”
CHI 19, SF 10 — Bears beat 49ers 19-10; Bears covered the +7 spread by winning outright (ESPN scoreboard).
“who could potentially be a generational talent, is primed for a massive leap, not dissimilar than what Joe Burrow did last year. It happens. It happens all the time. I got Trevor Lawrence plus at 70 to one to lead the league in passing touchdowns. We both like the Jags as longish”
Patrick Mahomes led the NFL with 41 passing touchdowns in the 2022 season; Trevor Lawrence did not lead the league (ESPN season passing stats).
“it's a good spot Buccaneers two and a half point favorites on the road at Dallas Sunday night Tom Brady's back the Cowboys are back the Cowboys they're home dogs I mean the Cowboys are the side yeah it sucks like I hate betting a team like this that just had so much negativity heading into the season but lucky for us Tampa's had the same exact thing they just had a lot of drama in this camp. Dak, I just saw a crazy stat. Career completion percentage against Tampa Bay, 80%. For some reason, he plays incredibly well against them. Last year, the all-hyped team of Tampa, they only beat them by two in week one. We're exactly where we were last year, right? Except we're at home with this team getting two and a half. It's gross. We got to do it. This is the foxhole. I mean, there's just no doubt about it. No one's going to be betting this game Sunday night taking Dallas.”
TB 19, DAL 3 — Buccaneers beat Cowboys 19-3; Cowboys lost by 16, busting the +2.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“all the time and i gotta build strategies i gotta hire people and i gotta fight battles and put out fires but i also find time to do my research and you've really had me come around on the jags wow well start with the jags we just lost all half our listeners just stopped listening yeah i know right but i look at the afc south and you know how what i think of the south divisions in football yeah irrelevant don't matter nope teams no one cares no one cares doesn't leave their very small provincial region but the jazz are interesting and to me it comes down to two things. The Doug Peterson, Frank Reich mythology. And I want to lay it out for you. Doug Peterson wins a Super Bowl with the Eagles. He creates an offense that is ahead of the curve in terms of thinking analytically, going for it, wins a Super Bowl with a backup quarterback in Nick Foles. Frank Reich was the quarterback coach. He leaves, goes to Indy, has had some success. I think more credit than he deserves, given he hasn't won the division and has tended to have his teams lose important games when it matters the most. He banked on Carson Wentz last year. Everyone believed he was a genius who could turn him around. I think the genius is Peterson. And I think he's got a generational talent in Trevor Lawrence. And I think this division is ripe for the taking Jags plus 800 to win the division.”
The Jaguars won the AFC South in 2022, finishing 9-8 and clinching the division with a Week 18 win over Tennessee. (JAX 9-8)
“The fact that I'm getting plus 425, plus 450 at certain books, I'm going to take that on Miami to win this division.”
The Dolphins finished 9-8 and 2nd in the AFC East in 2022; the Buffalo Bills won the division. (MIA 9-8)
“Ravens, Super Bowl, still a 20 to one.”
Kansas City 38, Philadelphia 35 — The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII on Feb 12, 2023; the Ravens did not reach or win the Super Bowl.
“And again, we talked about Pittsburgh, which is my other favorite bet for this division at 9-1 or 10-1 to win this division. But just strictly Super Bowl bet, the two biggest ones I've done for highest odds are the Ravens and the Chiefs. Like those are the two teams I bet that Chiefs are 10 to one Ravens 20 to one.”
Kansas City 38, Philadelphia 35 — The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII on Feb 12, 2023 to win the Super Bowl.
“And again, we talked about Pittsburgh, which is my other favorite bet for this division at 9-1 or 10-1 to win this division.”
The Steelers finished 9-8 and 3rd in the AFC North in 2022, narrowly missing the playoffs; the Bengals won the division at 12-4. (PIT 9-8)
“The Bears are a dreadful team.”
The Bears finished the 2022 season 3-14, a franchise record for losses, well under the 5.5-win total. (CHI 3-14)
“And the Jets, under five and a half wins, plus 125.”
The Jets finished the 2022 season 7-10, over the 5.5-win total. (NYJ 7-10)
“but it's actually the Vikings under and the Vikings that missed the playoffs. I think you're getting really good value. They're one of the most hyped up teams heading into the season based off them getting a new head coach, which I agree, the guy can't be worse than Zimmer. He still has Kirk Cousins. He's still going to need Kirk Cousins to make big plays, not just put up junk time yards and touchdowns. So fading Kirk when the public is all over Kirk. And that's what they are this year. They're everyone's darling. I still think Green Bay is far and above the best team in this division. So if we're looking at a divisional bet, Green Bay, they're probably the best value now at minus 150. But my favorite bet is Vikings not to make a playoffs. I believe it's up to plus 175, plus 160, because they've just been getting bet up. So you like the Vikes not to make the playoffs better than the Vikes under the season win total? Yeah, just because you're getting a better plus number.”
The Vikings finished 13-4, won the NFC North, and made the playoffs (lost the Wild Card to the Giants); the bet on them to miss the playoffs lost. (MIN 13-4)
“The Niners right now, plus 750 to win the NFC on FanDuel.”
Philadelphia 31, San Francisco 7 — The 49ers lost the NFC Championship 31-7 to the Philadelphia Eagles; San Francisco did not win the NFC.
“We had a lot of similarities though Yeah I mean we literally the lockstep on the Cowboys and the Rams Yep Interesting that you think the books though they not going to make it You just think Brady got too much going on I think their offensive line is a mess and the best way to pressure Brady is up the middle. I think with a new coach, I think for whatever reason, and this is, you know, what the fuck do I know? I'm literally going to put 10 K on them after we get off their show to make the playoffs. I love you, Chad. He feels disengaged to me.”
The Buccaneers finished 8-9, won the NFC South, and made the playoffs (lost the Wild Card 31-14 to Dallas), so the bet on them to make the playoffs won. (TB 8-9)
“Yeah. I have the under, under 51 and a half.”
Pittsburgh 38, West Virginia 31 — Pittsburgh beat West Virginia 38-31 on Sept 1, 2022; the combined 69 points went well over 51.5 (ESPN box score).
“changes so i think this ends up being a grinder i think there's some value on the under the market's not properly accounting for how pit is going to play this year colin you got it at 54 and a half yeah that was put in the about two minutes after i was standing next to pat narduzzi outside the Weston and Charlotte of media days, when he told me specifically, we don't want to do anything but run the ball like crazy, and Kedon Slovis is only going to need to throw when he has to throw. Now, knowing that Pitt was a top 10 tempo last year, and Narduzzi now with Frank Signetti coming over from Boston College, he wants to make this a bottom 10 tempo team. You know, I mean, that was a complete under right away, because that number that oddsmakers put out would have been the total at the end of last year with the old coaching staff. So knowing that in the back of my hand, I just turn around, make the bet, put it in.”
Pittsburgh 38, West Virginia 31 — Pittsburgh beat West Virginia 38-31 on Sept 1, 2022; the combined 69 points went over 54.5 (ESPN box score).
“So talking about my favorite games for the earliest slate. My number one first game I saw when all the schedules came out was the Oregon-Georgia game. And I knew right away I was going to be on Oregon because Georgia won the national title. They'd be overvalued. Everyone would be all over them. And then I went and looked on the action page on the app. It's a public dog, Oregon. All the money, all the tickets is coming in on Oregon. And the pros have actually been coming on the other side and taking Georgia. So very interesting to see that the public loves Oregon. The number to me is too big, right? Anyone would take that week. I mean, it's week one. These teams aren't what they were last year. We know Oregon gets the recruits, right? They have the speed to keep up with SEC team will be the interesting part. But 17 and a half is such a key number to me. I would love to hear what your view is on the number stock. What do you think when you see a 17 and a half? plus two ranked teams first week. Don't we always just take that dog there?”
Georgia 49, Oregon 3 — Georgia routed Oregon 49-3 on Sept 3, 2022 at the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game; Oregon lost outright, busting the +17.5 cover (ESPN box score).
“So very interesting to see that the public loves Oregon. The number to me is too big, right? Anyone would take that week. I mean, it's week one. These teams aren't what they were last year. We know Oregon gets the recruits, right? They have the speed to keep up with SEC team will be the interesting part. But 17 and a half is such a key number to me. I would love to hear what your view is on the number stock. What do you think when you see a 17 and a half? plus two ranked teams first week. Don't we always just take that dog there? Like, is there really much to this line, or is there a reason to actually take Georgia in this matchup? No, I don't say it. I mean, to me, that doesn't matter to me. I make the number 12-8, like around 13. Actually, a little less than 13. So, yeah, I jumped on Oregon. Early in the season, there's a little more uncertainty with some of these teams in college football this year, just the transfer portal coaching moves. So maybe there will be times where I'm not as confident in a number. And in that case, if I show value, then I'll say, okay, is there other reasons why I like this game? And with Oregon, I did. I wouldn't take 17, 16 and a half, but over 17, I jumped on Oregon and you get a full, I really like this Oregon defense.”
Georgia 49, Oregon 3 — Georgia routed Oregon 49-3 on Sept 3, 2022 at the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game; Oregon lost outright, busting the +17.5 cover (ESPN box score).
“Ohio State, Notre Dame. Everyone is talking about this Ohio State team probably the team people expect from the Big Ten to go to the college football playoff Notre Dame getting a weird amount of respect from voters for the AP rankings 14 and a half Colin, I saw on the app, you took Ohio State, minus 14 and a half. Explain yourself. I don't know what the ceiling of this Ohio State team I definitely know what the ceiling is of the”
Ohio State 21, Notre Dame 10 — No. 2 Ohio State beat No. 5 Notre Dame 21-10 on Sept 3, 2022; Ohio State's 11-point margin fell short of -14.5 (ESPN box score).
“as we've seen from two to three in a long time. Do you agree, Colin? Oh, absolutely. Yeah. Like Ohio State and Alabama are my pick in the national championship game. I have money on Ohio State, but that's only because FanDuel was happy enough to put them out at eight to one for me right after the national championship last year. But I am going to fire on Alabama at some point because that's your national championship game. And I do think the Crimson Tide by then will”
Ohio State lost the Peach Bowl (CFP semifinal) to Georgia 42-41 on Dec 31, 2022, ending Ohio State's national title bid; Georgia went on to win the national championship.
“yeah that uh i like i don't mind a flyer there and southern miss week this week against liberty i really like them plus three and a half southern miss also took liberty's offensive line coach from last year really good offensive line coach who knows everything liberty does inside and out and”
Liberty 29, Southern Miss 27 (4OT) — Liberty beat Southern Miss 29-27 in 4 overtimes on Sept 3, 2022; Southern Miss's 2-point loss covered the +3.5 spread.
“I have Denver winning it because here my takeaway Here what I worry about Kansas City So not only did the Broncos go and get Randy Gregory they also got DJ Jones from San Francisco”
Broncos finished the 2022 season 5-12, 4th in the AFC West; the Chiefs (14-3) won the division. (DEN 5-12)
“i think the niners are one of the better but minnesota is my favorite bet in the nfc i think nine and a half is just incredibly, like I would pound the under on Dallas, pound the over on Minnesota.”
Vikings finished the 2022 regular season 13-4 and won the NFC North, well over the 9.5-win total (Wikipedia season page, sourced from official standings). (MIN 13-4)
“So to me if you just looking at pure value based that what I like with this division I like this crazy long shot Atlanta team that I trust their head coach I trust the offense that they have there And I do think their defense has been much improved from last year So to me I get it Atlanta, everyone's all about them tanking for the season, which does make sense. It's a great QB class coming up. I just don't think they're that as bad as everyone's left them to be. Like, they're just not 28 to one to win this division bad. Like they're, they're just, that's just too, too extreme for this, for me. So yeah, Atlanta, again, And not telling people to put their house on it. This is one of my bigger bets for this division. I think that's the best value right now, 28 to 1.”
Buccaneers won the NFC South (8-9); Falcons finished 7-10 and did not win the division, so the +2800 futures lost (ESPN standings). (Falcons: 7-10)
“talk about now they have a professional in the building and Doug Peterson I love I love this team so much in the sense that no one was talking about them months ago so we were able to get them plus 900, 10 to one to win this division at one point. Now FanDuel has them down to seven to one, eight to one. Shop around for that number. Love the Jags. Love they're over. Having eight wins for the season. Again, when I talk about taking them for the division, me and Chad are talking about it's all about putting yourself in position to hedge.”
Jaguars finished 9-8 and won the AFC South in 2022, cashing the +900 division futures (ESPN standings). (Jaguars: 9-8)
“Personally, my favorite NFL bet right now is the Atlanta Falcons over their win total of four and a half this season.”
Falcons finished the 2022 regular season 7-10, clearing the over 4.5 wins total (ESPN standings). (Falcons: 7-10)
“That's why I like the under for the Dallas Cowboys at 10 and a half.”
Cowboys finished the 2022 regular season 12-5, exceeding the under 10.5 wins total (ESPN standings). (Cowboys: 12-5)
“Like this should be closer to the Eagles than it is. just a simple fact that Dallas won last year. It's the Cowboys. They've just been bet up to this point. What are they? Plus 135, plus 130. So yeah, yeah. I just, I just don't think it's a smart bet to take Dallas. I do like they're under, they feel like a 10 and seven, nine and eight kind of team this year, where we just expect them to take a step back last year. If people don't remember, go back and watch Dak through their first eight games out of this world. Talent wise, like this kid could not miss simple fact. You just talked about it. You have Gallup. He had CD lamb. He had Amari Cooper as his three receivers. It's just going to be different this year. So I do like the Cowboys. I just don't like them at this price. I would not bet any of their over bets. So for me, 10 and a half, that's a good bet, betting they're under.”
Cowboys finished the 2022 regular season 12-5, exceeding the under 10.5 wins total (ESPN standings). (Cowboys: 12-5)
“I took them at plus 200. That's the only reason I would tell people not to bet them divisionally right now. They're at plus 170. Me and Chad, we're going to talk about week one. We like the Lions. That's what you're looking for, right, at this point. You're looking for if the Eagles could drop week one to the Lions, bam, you get huge value on betting them divisionally. You get huge value on Hurts MVP. That's when you want to take the Eagles. You don't want to bet them now, middle of the summer, just because the fans have bet it up, right? It's all the way down to plus 170 now. You've already missed the value. I'd hold off on that. If you still like the over, I'd take it. It's at 9.5. It's still a good number. But again, you missed the value. It was at 9 at one point. So, to me, I like the over.”
Eagles finished the 2022 regular season 14-3, clearing the over 9.5 wins total (ESPN standings). (Eagles: 14-3)
“Give me lines plus four. Give me lines on the money line. Washington. What is their nickname now? Washington Commanders. So lame. So lame. Plus 500 to win the division. Win total eight and a half. I don't know. Like they're getting healthier on the defense, which I think is why people were so excited about him last year. i'm so out on carson wentz uh i love ron rivera they've already fired their defensive uh their linebacker cut was it their defensive coordinator their defensive line coach sam mills defensive line coach sam mills the third which is weird because i saw him two days earlier at his dad's hall of fame thing in canton ohio yeah i'm curious what happened there and so i don't know simon there's no way we look at the commanders as a long shot to win the division what do you think their total. No. And even all the other pros I've talked to, like met up with a bunch of guys this past weekend and they see they making all their bets We talking about futures I mean a bunch of assholes out there betting the giants no one been washington right it just funny where every year guys will talk up washington usually like i was one of those guys last year it like a great defense made a playoffs without a quarterback last year like they should be better with fitzpatrick he went down week one and we saw what played out they just weren't that good of a team again i i want to believe in carson but it's all mental at this point with him like i watched that preseason game he just had a couple passes where it's like the kid doesn't get his feet set it's just he does all these he does all these things that he regressed and all these different aspects of being a quarterback position so I'm down on them I bet they're under I didn't bet big on it right it's not one of my bigger bets I had bet they're under”
Commanders finished the 2022 regular season 8-8-1 (8 wins), staying under the 8.5 wins total (ESPN standings). (Commanders: 8-8-1)
“I'm on there under uh seven and a half wins I'll take it all the way down to minus 135 minus [36:32] 140”
Giants finished the 2022 regular season 9-7-1 (9 wins), exceeding the under 7.5 wins total (ESPN standings). (Giants: 9-7-1)
“Give me lines plus four.”
DET 35, PHI 38 — Eagles beat the Lions 38-35 in Week 1 (Sept 11, 2022); Lions lost by 3, covering the +4 spread (ESPN game log).
“We're going to talk about the New York Jets here. I mean, I dare to say it maybe just because I got some momentum going here, but maybe I'd like the Jets more than I do the Patriots. Oh, my God. Wow. Hold on. I'm talking about value. I'm not saying like head to head, but let's give me the numbers. I'm taking I'm taking I'm anticipating the numbers here. The Jets right now, plus twenty four hundred to win the AFC East. That's not a bet I'm taking. Miami plus 450 to win the AFC East, New England plus 500, Jets plus 2400 to win the AFC East, and their win total is five and a half. I like the over on that. So does the public. There's something to be said for a team that's closed the gap. They're entering the next year in a coaching regime and an organization that seems – now, of course, they just had the Mbukai-Becton news is bad. I love what they did in the draft. Of course, you can't bank on rookies too much, but they were able to get the best player at various positions on the board heading into the draft with the way, you know, the pass rusher and the cornerback. receiver. And again, that's not to say that they have it all figured out, but, and that's where, when you take a look at what teams have done, it doesn't happen in a vacuum. Of course, just because one team has improved, you say, well, they figured it out. Well, other teams are improving too. They're shifting that the jets are going to be more competitive this year. Obviously you can steal a game and in a 17 game season, I like the over, I should say at five and a half.”
Jets finished the 2022 regular season 7-10, clearing the over 5.5 wins total (ESPN standings). (Jets: 7-10)
“Miami plus 450 to win the AFC East, New England plus 500, Jets plus 2400 to win the AFC East, and their win total is five and a half. I like the over on that. So does the public. There's something to be said for a team that's closed the gap. They're entering the next year in a coaching regime and an organization that seems – now, of course, they just had the Mbukai-Becton news is bad. I love what they did in the draft. Of course, you can't bank on rookies too much, but they were able to get the best player at various positions on the board heading into the draft with the way, you know, the pass rusher and the cornerback. receiver. And again, that's not to say that they have it all figured out, but, and that's where, when you take a look at what teams have done, it doesn't happen in a vacuum. Of course, just because one team has improved, you say, well, they figured it out. Well, other teams are improving too. They're shifting that the jets are going to be more competitive this year. Obviously you can steal a game and in a 17 game season, I like the over, I should say at five and a half. One of the most bet overs for the year, according to sports books, the New York Jets, based almost entirely on fan response and enthusiasm to their draft. And it's my biggest it's right now my biggest under bet. So me and Tim are completely opposite sides. I just them in the Bears are my two biggest fade teams this upcoming season. Zach Wilson has shown me nothing. He got outplayed by his backup who ended up beating the Bengals in a throwaway game. So Zach Wilson, if he can take the next step, if I can see this could read a defense and I look like a deer in headlights. He was undersized. I be about it But right now the Jets to me an inflated line Like they bet up You want to talk about respect given to the Patriots This line a game more than it should be just because of New York sportsbooks Like, this line is just getting pounded, but to the over, because the Jets fans are so excited about this team. Where me, as a professional, I need to take that value. So, I had them at four wins for the season. I'm getting a free game and a half towards the over. I love the under.”
Jets finished the 2022 regular season 7-10, exceeding the under 5.5 wins total (ESPN standings). (Jets: 7-10)
“All right. So we're going to get to the Browns. Obviously, we got to talk about the Browns and Deshaun Watson. But the Steelers are really interesting. They are plus 330 to make the playoffs, plus 950 to win the AFC North. Their win total is seven and a half. 70 to one win the Super Bowl. That is their longest odds since the 1976 merger. And they are at their lowest win total since 2004 when they went 15 and one behind a rookie quarterback. back. Under Mike Tomlin and Bill Cowher, since 1992, when their win total is listed under eight, 1992, they were at six and a half. They went 11 and five. 2000, they were at six and a half, went nine and seven. 2001, they were at seven and a half, went 13 and three. 2004, seven and a half, one 15 and one guys who's gonna bet against a rah-rah mike tomlin spot i realize if you have special outcomes that you got to be comfortable being uncomfortable i've just trained myself over the years to resist comfort and so appreciate my resume is seeking comfort yeah can't do it i definitely this is one of the pro bets like only pros are betting this number i bet in the over for this Pittsburgh team.”
Steelers finished the 2022 regular season 9-8, clearing the over 7.5 wins total (ESPN standings). (Steelers: 9-8)
“And when he proves that Matt Nagy was the problem in Chicago and not Mitch Trubisky Raybon is there anything about the Steelers that Simon just said that you agree with Yeah I pretty much agree with everything I mean I think the Steelers are the best bet in this division. Fun fact about Mitchell Trubisky. He hasn't had a losing record as a starter since his rookie year. And he's set for Trubisky. With time, downfield, wants Robinson, Intercepted by Shaquille and intercepted again by Shaquille Griffin. And it's intercepted. Trubisky over the middle. Intercepted. Mitchell Trubisky gets caught trying to force something in there. He's won games every year somehow. So this defense, he had some defenses in Chicago. Very talented defense. And as Simon mentioned, you know, skill positions talented as well. Deontay, Chase Quaypool, Pickens, Pat Fryer moves, who I love. The offensive line could still be a little rough around the edges, but it's getting better. I think the interior line is going to be better. Of course, they got Najee. And Mike Tomlin's never had a losing record. I love the false enthusiasm. I'm going to see if we can make one of you guys quit today. There's a lot to like about betting on Pittsburgh. I think there, if I'm taking any of the win totals in this division, as of right now, it is the Pittsburgh Steelers for all those for all those reasons I just mentioned. And like Mitch Trubisky is just kind of a wild card in the sense that like he's been on these kind of teams before where the defense is the strength. Maybe he's got, you know, some decent guys at the skill positions and he's been able to win. So it hasn't been pretty, but he's been able to get it done. So and that's all you would need to hit the win total. So I actually like the truth. I love that you've made a bold statement. You guys have both basically said Steelers, Steelers, or Stillers, Stillers, Stillers. Over seven and a half”
Steelers finished the 2022 regular season 9-8, clearing the over 7.5 wins total (ESPN standings). (Steelers: 9-8)
“I mean, this is making me want to bet the Steelers over seven and a half right now. And by the way, it's minus one Oh five. So not a bad price either. All right. So Cleveland Browns,”
Steelers finished the 2022 regular season 9-8, clearing the over 7.5 wins total (ESPN standings). (Steelers: 9-8)
“Raybon, do you have a feeling about the Lions? I love the Lions. I just don't think they win a division. I like the Lions because I just think they're underrated. I think they are closer to a 500-ish team, and their win total is at six and a half. I think it would be a lot to ask for them to beat out the Packers and the Vikings. but uh i do i do share simon sentiment with jared goff i think people are underrating him like we just did the pod with jj zacharison and like we essentially decided that we're just going to pass on every quarterback and just draft jared goff uh for free um but like seriously the offensive line is the top three offensive line they have no weakness on the offensive line uh their skill positions are great and they're going to get jamon to williams at some point They already have, you know, Amon Ross St. Brown broke out in a major way last year. DJ Chark's a solid, you know, number two, who will turn into the number three when Williams comes back. And DeAndre Swift is great. The reason why I don't love like the, okay, make the playoffs, win the division is I think, you know, Hutchinson is nice. But I still think the back end is going to struggle for Detroit. I think, you know, if when they don't get home, I still think they're going to get torched. I think there be in a lot of shootouts though and I think they actually be able to win some because their offense is criminally underrated So I I with you Simon I am loving these guys in fantasy I just don really think the off like the only whole quote unquote on the offense is really Jared Goff but like you said Simon we've seen him with pieces around him uh do do decently um you couldn't expect him to do well last year in that situation it's totally different I also like the coaching staff so I like the lines over six and a half wins”
Lions finished the 2022 regular season 9-8, clearing the over 6.5 wins total (ESPN standings). (Lions: 9-8)
“half wins, plus 125 is the price on the over. I think we can all agree this is a team that's got a long way to go. Yep. I mean, I like a betting adjusted lines where teams I think they're going to suck. I bet they're under five, bet another under a four and a half, bet them to have worse record. It's nothing against Justin Fields or this team. It's more about, I think the last regime”
Bears finished the 2022 regular season 3-14, staying under the 5-win total (ESPN standings). (Bears: 3-14)
“We're going Bears under six and a half wins.”
Bears finished the 2022 regular season 3-14, staying under the 6.5-win total (ESPN standings). (Bears: 3-14)
“Raybon, you and our other BFF, Sean Kroener, recorded on the Fantasy Flex podcast a couple weeks ago, July 21st, to be exact. Your season-long player props episode, which is actually one of the biggest episodes we do all year. You and Kroener both are phenomenal at projections, powering Action Network player projections, which is great if you want to find value in season-long props. You and Kerner and me agree on one quarterback where there is an opportunity, Mr. Baker Mayfield. Explain yourself and then be ready to be mocked by Mr. Simon Hunter. I'm just not buying Baker. I'm fading him. I like his under 21 and a half passing touchdowns. I know Kerner likes his under yardage as well, but I think there's just a lot of red flags.”
Baker Mayfield threw 10 passing touchdowns in 2022 combined across Carolina (6) and the Rams (4), well under the 21.5 line. (Mayfield: 10 passing TD (6 CAR + 4 LAR))
“But Patrick Mahomes under 350 and a half rushing yards,”
Patrick Mahomes rushed for 358 yards in the 2022 NFL regular season, exceeding the under 350.5 rushing yards line. (Mahomes: 358 rushing yards)
“I like Najee Harris to uh to lead the league in rushing at 18-1.”
Najee Harris did not lead the NFL in rushing yards in 2022; Josh Jacobs led the league with 1,653 rushing yards while Harris finished with 1,034. (Jacobs: 1,653 rush yds (league leader); Harris: 1,034 rush yds)
“And honestly, even if they lose game two, I'm not going to panic. Like you go into an 0-3 hole, maybe. So I actually like Tampa on the series line. We talked about this online change, which is our NHL betting podcast with me and my colleagues, So Money Sports, that if you're going to bet Tampa in game two, you might as well also take a shot on them to come back and win the series. Because if they win game two, they flip the script. It's home ice advantage for the Lightning, for the best of five series now. So this team, they're going to be around. Colorado is a different beast from maybe the Rangers, but the Maple Leafs were a really good team all season. Like people thought that they were the third best team in the NHL behind Colorado and Florida. They already beat Florida. Then they already beat Toronto. Like they can hang with this team. So I'm not worried yet at all. And I would encourage if you were to ask me a bet on Tampa to come back. So it's plus two 30 right now, a fan duel Tampa to win the series. I read. So would you like better Tampa plus one, plus one and a half for the series at plus one 16 on a fan duel? No, I would, I would just go, go for them to, to win the series. take the price. You mentioned the Rangers. During the Rangers lightning series,”
Colorado won the 2022 Stanley Cup Final 4 games to 2 over Tampa Bay, so Tampa Bay to win the series lost.
“I mean, honestly, for me, I bet the Lightning before the series started because of what Lee Buffs talked about. I thought the Avs would come out sloppy, and it's kind of heartbreaking where they were literally one bounce away from taking that game. I mean, that third period, how many chances did Tampa Bay have to get that goal? And it was just, I mean, that was really tough. Especially, to me, that would be a big deal. You're just talking about the Avs are a young team. Like, if Tampa would have gone up 1-0, I honestly think that would have been a huge deal in this series But for me some of that back Tampa before that puck even dropped last night I not worried at all If you bet on Tampa to win this series they were just down two out of the Rangers And if you believed in them at that time, which I did, you're just not worried at this point with the Avs.”
Colorado won the 2022 Stanley Cup Final 4 games to 2 over Tampa Bay, so Tampa Bay to win the series lost.
“All right, so I want to go backwards. I don't want to start with the outright. I don't want to start with the long shot. Let's start with top tens, who you're seeing best odds, best value for top ten right now. Okay. I mentioned Tony Finau's name a minute ago. Tony Finau won the Northern Trust last year, back in August, went 16 starts without a top five afterwards. Looked like it was, hey, now he's got momentum. We've been waiting for Tony to become a superstar. Didn't happen afterwards, but in his last five starts, he's got three top five finishes, including a runner to Rory McIlroy this past weekend. I like Tony a lot for a U.S. Open type of setup. He's got the right attitude. Like I was just saying, I think he's a good play. Max Homa is a guy who hasn't played majors well in the past, but he's he's literally getting better every single week. And you can tell the confidence on his face like this is a guy that's improving right before our eyes. He won the Wells Fargo championship about a month ago. And I think there's a nice little correlation. That was a tough Northeast golf course. I think you can look at that one and say, I think some players from that leaderboard will show up on this one. Max Oma is a guy who was 13th of the PGA championship last month. That his best career major finish I like him a few notches higher for a top 10 this week And then Matt Fitzpatrick is a great player this week Matt Fitzpatrick won the 2013 U Amateur right here at the Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts. Plays his best golf on tougher golf courses when the winning score is closer in relation to part. Oh, by the way, he's number two. He was number one for most of the season in total strokes gained on the PGA Tour. Rory McIlroy just went past him this past weekend, but he's a close second. Essentially that measures who's playing the best golf. I know Fitzpatrick hasn't won anything this season, but he's been very, very good. Uh, just to, to give people some context, uh, Matt Fitzpatrick, 25 to one outright about plus two 10, two to one for top 10. Tony Finau, 35 to 1 plus 320 for top 10. Max Homa, 45 to 1 plus 420 for top 10.”
Tony Finau missed the cut at the 2022 U.S. Open, shooting 73-72=145 (+5), well outside the top 10.
“All right, so I want to go backwards. I don't want to start with the outright. I don't want to start with the long shot. Let's start with top tens, who you're seeing best odds, best value for top ten right now. Okay. I mentioned Tony Finau's name a minute ago. Tony Finau won the Northern Trust last year, back in August, went 16 starts without a top five afterwards. Looked like it was, hey, now he's got momentum. We've been waiting for Tony to become a superstar. Didn't happen afterwards, but in his last five starts, he's got three top five finishes, including a runner to Rory McIlroy this past weekend. I like Tony a lot for a U.S. Open type of setup. He's got the right attitude. Like I was just saying, I think he's a good play. Max Homa is a guy who hasn't played majors well in the past, but he's he's literally getting better every single week. And you can tell the confidence on his face like this is a guy that's improving right before our eyes. He won the Wells Fargo championship about a month ago. And I think there's a nice little correlation. That was a tough Northeast golf course. I think you can look at that one and say, I think some players from that leaderboard will show up on this one. Max Oma is a guy who was 13th of the PGA championship last month. That his best career major finish I like him a few notches higher for a top 10 this week And then Matt Fitzpatrick is a great player this week Matt Fitzpatrick won the 2013 U Amateur right here at the Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts. Plays his best golf on tougher golf courses when the winning score is closer in relation to part. Oh, by the way, he's number two. He was number one for most of the season in total strokes gained on the PGA Tour. Rory McIlroy just went past him this past weekend, but he's a close second. Essentially that measures who's playing the best golf. I know Fitzpatrick hasn't won anything this season, but he's been very, very good. Uh, just to, to give people some context, uh, Matt Fitzpatrick, 25 to one outright about plus two 10, two to one for top 10. Tony Finau, 35 to 1 plus 320 for top 10. Max Homa, 45 to 1 plus 420 for top 10.”
Max Homa finished T47 at 289 (+9) at the 2022 U.S. Open, missing the top 10.
“All right, so I want to go backwards. I don't want to start with the outright. I don't want to start with the long shot. Let's start with top tens, who you're seeing best odds, best value for top ten right now. Okay. I mentioned Tony Finau's name a minute ago. Tony Finau won the Northern Trust last year, back in August, went 16 starts without a top five afterwards. Looked like it was, hey, now he's got momentum. We've been waiting for Tony to become a superstar. Didn't happen afterwards, but in his last five starts, he's got three top five finishes, including a runner to Rory McIlroy this past weekend. I like Tony a lot for a U.S. Open type of setup. He's got the right attitude. Like I was just saying, I think he's a good play. Max Homa is a guy who hasn't played majors well in the past, but he's he's literally getting better every single week. And you can tell the confidence on his face like this is a guy that's improving right before our eyes. He won the Wells Fargo championship about a month ago. And I think there's a nice little correlation. That was a tough Northeast golf course. I think you can look at that one and say, I think some players from that leaderboard will show up on this one. Max Oma is a guy who was 13th of the PGA championship last month. That his best career major finish I like him a few notches higher for a top 10 this week And then Matt Fitzpatrick is a great player this week Matt Fitzpatrick won the 2013 U Amateur right here at the Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts. Plays his best golf on tougher golf courses when the winning score is closer in relation to part. Oh, by the way, he's number two. He was number one for most of the season in total strokes gained on the PGA Tour. Rory McIlroy just went past him this past weekend, but he's a close second. Essentially that measures who's playing the best golf. I know Fitzpatrick hasn't won anything this season, but he's been very, very good. Uh, just to, to give people some context, uh, Matt Fitzpatrick, 25 to one outright about plus two 10, two to one for top 10. Tony Finau, 35 to 1 plus 320 for top 10. Max Homa, 45 to 1 plus 420 for top 10.”
Matt Fitzpatrick won the 2022 U.S. Open outright at 274 (-6), cashing the top-10 prop.
“All right, so what kind of long shots do you want? Are we talking like super random dudes for top 40s, or you're talking like, hey, a guy with a big number that has a chance of winning? big number chance of winning always okay i'm gonna start off with i i told you guys i took a little spin around this golf course yesterday i'm trying to find like a great comparison golf course excuse me to to what this looks like and the best i can come up with is marion marion golf club a famous course ben hogan's one iron we all know the story last held the u.s opened in 2013 the guy who won that week just happened to shoot the a couple days ago, probably should have shot a 50-70, made three bogeys and shot 60 in Canada. That's Justin Rose. The number has moved. I think you could have gotten him before that 60 at right around 80 or maybe even 100 to 1 in some books. I think Rose is down to 65 to 1 in a lot of places right now. I still like the number. I still think there's some win equity there. He's playing some very good golf. Yeah, he's not the same player in his prime as he was at Marion back nine years ago, but I do think he can go out and still win this golf tournament.”
Justin Rose did not win the 2022 U.S. Open; he finished T37 at 287 (+7) while Matt Fitzpatrick won at 274 (-6).
“All right. We did top 10. We're going to do top five. And then Simon is going to ask you for your outrights. after I give everybody the right context for who's got the shortest odds right now. Give me your top five. Okay. So guys, the top five that I like now giving up my favorite outright play. Look, a couple of them are very chalky. I've got Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy. They're both right at the top of the leaderboard this past weekend. Rory wound up winning. Good for golf. Good for the PGA Tour. Everyone celebrates. Look, Rory's playing some of the best golf that we've seen him play in an awful long time. We talk about confidence. We talk about let's look beyond the analytical models and let's look at a guy and understand what we're seeing from him. Rory is absolutely brimming with confidence right now, both on and off the golf course. He is a must watch golfer on the course. He's a must watch interview off the golf course. He's just he's fire on all cylinders and all facets of what his job is right now. And so love Rory this week. Love Justin Thomas. I was coming to the course today with a couple of PGA tour pros who, who are working on the radio side, us open championship radio with me this week. And they were talking about Justin Thomas who has every shot in the bag. They said no other player in the world right now can flight the ball. However they want like Justin Thomas he wants to hit a low cut He it a low cut He wants to hit to hit a high draw He can do it from 60 yards He can do it from 230 yards He got this variety of shots that's going to work really well for him. So again, those aren't names from off the board that you haven't heard. Daniel Berger isn't getting enough love in the marketplace yet this week. Daniel Berger is a guy who often comes up to New England in the summer. He's sort of this de facto New Englander. His old pro Matt Doyle is at the Musquamacut Club in Rhode Island. He goes up there and practices. He's played ball at the Travelers Championship just a couple hours down the road in Connecticut. I think it's going to be a good week for Berger. I might not have said that a few weeks ago because he was dealing with some injuries, some inconsistencies, but he finished the share of fifth place at the Memorial Tournament. That's a really tough one. This is going to be tough as well. I think his game really suits this golf course. Daniel Berger, eight to one for a top five. Rory, plus 225. Justin Thomas, plus 275. The Travelers, mere minutes from West Hartford. I'll be there in a few days.”
Rory McIlroy finished T5 at 278 (-2) at the 2022 U.S. Open, cashing the top-5 prop.
“All right. We did top 10. We're going to do top five. And then Simon is going to ask you for your outrights. after I give everybody the right context for who's got the shortest odds right now. Give me your top five. Okay. So guys, the top five that I like now giving up my favorite outright play. Look, a couple of them are very chalky. I've got Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy. They're both right at the top of the leaderboard this past weekend. Rory wound up winning. Good for golf. Good for the PGA Tour. Everyone celebrates. Look, Rory's playing some of the best golf that we've seen him play in an awful long time. We talk about confidence. We talk about let's look beyond the analytical models and let's look at a guy and understand what we're seeing from him. Rory is absolutely brimming with confidence right now, both on and off the golf course. He is a must watch golfer on the course. He's a must watch interview off the golf course. He's just he's fire on all cylinders and all facets of what his job is right now. And so love Rory this week. Love Justin Thomas. I was coming to the course today with a couple of PGA tour pros who, who are working on the radio side, us open championship radio with me this week. And they were talking about Justin Thomas who has every shot in the bag. They said no other player in the world right now can flight the ball. However they want like Justin Thomas he wants to hit a low cut He it a low cut He wants to hit to hit a high draw He can do it from 60 yards He can do it from 230 yards He got this variety of shots that's going to work really well for him. So again, those aren't names from off the board that you haven't heard. Daniel Berger isn't getting enough love in the marketplace yet this week. Daniel Berger is a guy who often comes up to New England in the summer. He's sort of this de facto New Englander. His old pro Matt Doyle is at the Musquamacut Club in Rhode Island. He goes up there and practices. He's played ball at the Travelers Championship just a couple hours down the road in Connecticut. I think it's going to be a good week for Berger. I might not have said that a few weeks ago because he was dealing with some injuries, some inconsistencies, but he finished the share of fifth place at the Memorial Tournament. That's a really tough one. This is going to be tough as well. I think his game really suits this golf course. Daniel Berger, eight to one for a top five. Rory, plus 225. Justin Thomas, plus 275. The Travelers, mere minutes from West Hartford. I'll be there in a few days.”
Justin Thomas finished T37 at 287 (+7) at the 2022 U.S. Open, well outside the top 5.
“I think his game really [35:01] suits this golf course. Daniel Berger, eight to one for a top five.”
Daniel Berger missed the cut at the 2022 U.S. Open, shooting 70-75=145 (+5), well outside the top 5.
“I know. I'm looking forward to it. All right. Outright winners right now. Rory's a 10 to one and dropping. Justin Thomas, 11-1. John Rahm, defending, 14-1. Scotty Scheffler, 14-1. Cam Smith, 20-1. Xander Shoffley, 20-1. Then Patrick Cantlay, 22-1. Simon, ask your question. Who's your favorite bet? All right. So first of all, those names mentioned, Xander Shoffley and Patrick Cantlay, those numbers are very, very intriguing. I think it's going to be a good week for both of them. Cantlay has played some of his worst golf in the majors over the last year or so. I think people are going to be scared off. I think that's kept his number from being too short. I think it's a really good number for him. He's better than where he's being priced at. That said you didn mention my guy who a little bit lower down the board Shane Lowry is playing some of the best golf of his life so far this year 12 starts in 2022 nothing worse than 35th And really it his all around game He driving it well. The irons are solid, soft hands around the greens. He makes some putts. He's got the right attitude for US Open. He was runner up to Dustin Johnson at Oakmont back in 2016. and so I like an Irishman in Boston who would think that that could ever go well but I really do think Shane Lowry can uh can go and take this thing this week even though he won the Open Championship a few years ago at Royal Portrush I've always thought he's probably got a better chance of winning a U.S. Open I think he's a better U.S. Open player than even the Open Championship where he's from and quite frankly guys maybe I'm just rooting for it not only for my own personal benefit, but that celebration for Shane Lowry here in Boston Sunday night, that could be a pretty damn good party. Shane Lowry currently 30 to one to win the U.S. Open.”
Shane Lowry missed the cut at the 2022 U.S. Open, shooting 72-72=144 (E); Matt Fitzpatrick won at 274 (-6).
“Yeah, but I did like I did like Matt brought it up that I bought more shares of Steph for MVP.”
Stephen Curry won 2022 NBA Finals MVP (Wikipedia/NBA Finals results).
“but I did bet them, again, a minus one and a half to win this series”
Warriors won the 2022 NBA Finals series 4-2, a 2-game margin that covers Warriors -1.5 series (Wikipedia series results).
“Stephen Curry, 10 and a half over assistant rebounds [29:27] was a really painful one. He had 10 over 10 and a half. He had 10. I got hit by the hook and he [29:33] sits the entire fourth quarter. I'm back on that for game three.”
Curry had 4 rebounds and 2 assists (6 total) in Game 3 of the 2022 NBA Finals on June 8, 2022, under the 10.5 assists+rebounds line (ESPN box score). (Curry 4 reb, 2 ast (6 total))
“The other one I really like here, honestly is okay. We think that Williams might play less who plays more. And it's Al Horford, Al Horford, I think gets a ton of minutes. I also found this at home. Horford is averaging 3.6 assists. That's a huge differential from his road splits. And so his rebounds and assists only. So we just think that he's going to play a lot of five, get a lot of rebounds. He'll probably crash the offensive glass a lot more. Jason talked about that adjustment. 12 and a half over is plus 104. So that gets us a really kind of a good number there, getting a plus number on what I think is a good spot for Al Horford. That's where I'm looking at for props.”
Al Horford had 8 rebounds and 6 assists (14 total) in Game 3 of the 2022 NBA Finals on June 8, 2022, over the 12.5 rebounds+assists line (ESPN box score). (Horford 8 reb, 6 ast (14 total))
“I think this is a very close series. But for me, the value, when I'm getting a plus number on a team that's been as good as Boston, that has found the answers. I think Boston is where the value is found. I'm betting it very specifically as a series goes on. Look, I have a plus 700 Warriors over Celtics ticket from early May. I have a plus 900 Celtics over Warriors ticket from the second round So I set myself up on either side But when I look at how the matchups go I lean towards Boston just slightly having the edge over Golden State enough to think the value is there in what I think is close to a coin flip series.”
The Celtics lost the 2022 NBA Finals to the Warriors 2-4 (Wikipedia series results).
“I already bet Celtics minus one and a half at plus 200. [48:56] So I'm set for Celtics and six, essentially at plus 200 from that position.”
The Celtics lost the 2022 NBA Finals series outright 2-4, so Celtics -1.5 (needing to win the series by 2+ games) lost (Wikipedia series results).
“I think Al Horford's going to be awesome to the point where we can talk about it later, but I bet him for finals MVP.”
Stephen Curry, not Al Horford, won 2022 NBA Finals MVP (Wikipedia/NBA Finals results).
“I just Matt Moore respect man you got balls taking balls in the series because I'm with these two I just it feels like free money minus 160 I've hit well over 50 books now at that number for a grand each and I probably bet another 10 books today for another grand it's like rare opportunity a rare opportunity to bet on a Warriors team that yeah a guy might pull out his”
The Warriors won the 2022 NBA Finals over the Celtics 4-2 (Wikipedia series results).
“Stephen Curry plus 430 at FanDuel to lead the series in points and threes. [47:21] That to me is my favorite sort of exotic.”
Curry led all players in the 2022 NBA Finals with 187 total points (31.2 ppg) and 31 made threes across the 6 games, well ahead of any Celtics scorer (ESPN game log).
“I'm going to drink the juice and just, you know, take that minus. It might be up to minus one 70 now at certain books, but it's worth it. It's like we talk all the time, Chad, it's a little nerve wracking with these spreads when it comes down to these foul shots into the game. And the greatest example is last week with that Jimmy Jimmy Butler I mean he literally hit the front rim with that that three So it like a lot of times that spread comes down to that When I have a lot of money I don want to be worried about that So, yeah, for me, I did Golden State, but I did the money line.”
108-120 — Celtics beat the Warriors 120-108 in Game 1 of the 2022 NBA Finals on June 2, 2022; the Warriors moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“interesting chad just open up the action network app 85 of the money 81 of the tickets on golden state so i'm on it too i drank the cool it i buy i i bought the juice i just bought the money line I instead of messing with the points just in case Boston keeps it close.”
108-120 — Celtics beat the Warriors 120-108 in Game 1 of the 2022 NBA Finals on June 2, 2022; the Warriors moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“Warriors in five. Who said that a couple of weeks ago? Was it Chad Millman, wise guy who moves lines, who can see what's happening on the court, who understands recency bias? And when two NBA experts are saying to him, hey, this is why Dallas can do well in this series, I'm saying that's great. Warriors in five. Chad Millman is proud of himself. God, I hope you're right because I have a lot of money riding on it. Do you? Would you get a plus 500, something like that? or like plus 352. I bet it after game one. I was just like, I think Chad might be onto something or Dallas just looked way out of their element. And then once it was up three Oh, I got a little”
120-110 — Warriors beat the Mavericks 4-1 in the 2022 Western Conference Finals, clinching with a 120-110 Game 5 win on May 26, 2022 (ESPN); Warriors-in-5 cashed.
“So the first bets I made right when it came out was the Texans, a plus seven and a half, hit it again at plus eight.”
20-20 — Texans and Colts tied 20-20 in OT in Week 1 2022; Texans +7.5 easily covered a 0-point margin (ESPN box score).
“was gonna be one that was gonna be my next one i mean lions they're actually up to four and a half [12:11] now in fan duel um it's it's hard not to want to take this line right now and i did take it but i”
38-35 — Eagles beat the Lions 38-35 in Week 1 2022; Lions +4.5 covered, losing by just 3 (ESPN box score).
“key number of five and a half being under that six I'm grabbing it right now this Ravens number”
24-9 — Ravens beat the Jets 24-9 in Week 1 2022; Baltimore -5.5 covered comfortably (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Falcons plus three and a half against the Saints.”
27-26 — Saints beat the Falcons 27-26 in Week 1 2022; Atlanta +3.5 covered, losing by just 1 (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Falcons plus three and a half against the Saints. I don't fear Jameis. I don't fear Marcus Mariota. I like this team to cover by a field goal in a close game between two not very good teams in Atlanta. Go walk me back. Tell me I'm wrong, but I know you love it. I gave you gross. I gave you grosser than gross. I gave you professional grossness. You know, people know I love doing round robins. This is one of the teams Atlanta's round robin. I threw in their money line. um gross disgusting might be the only game atlanta wins the entire season but chat just touched on what a beautiful beautiful spot for this atlanta team uh hosting a divisional rival at home no one knows what the hell offense atlanta is gonna be running they got mariota mariota so to me atlanta is a team that's gonna be terrible but early on they're gonna be able sneak up on teams just like last year denver terrible team started three you know carolina terrible team started three you know it's because they're running different offenses teams weren't prepared for their type of offensive style. So I love that pick, Chad, three and a half, two. That's such a key number. I take the number as well, but this is a money line bet for me as well. Cause Atlanta, this game stinks. Like no one's gonna be betting their money line. Everyone's gonna be coming in on, like you just said, the fun, exciting James Winston Saints team. So if you want to hold out and not bet it, I get it, but I honestly would take three and a half right now.”
27-26 — Saints beat the Falcons 27-26 in Week 1 2022; Atlanta +3.5 covered, losing by just 1 (ESPN box score).
“I don't want you getting angry at me. But if you give me a team whose quarterback is coming off an injury with a new coach going on the road as more than a field goal favorite against a division rival I am going to take the home dog division rival in this spot We are an Atlanta Falcons podcast. Give me the Falcons plus three and a half against the Saints. I don't fear Jameis. I don't fear Marcus Mariota. I like this team to cover by a field goal in a close game between two not very good teams in Atlanta. Go walk me back. Tell me I'm wrong, but I know you love it. I gave you gross. I gave you grosser than gross. I gave you professional grossness. You know, people know I love doing round robins. This is one of the teams Atlanta's round robin. I threw in their money line. um gross disgusting might be the only game atlanta wins the entire season but chat just touched on what a beautiful beautiful spot for this atlanta team uh hosting a divisional rival at home no one knows what the hell offense atlanta is gonna be running they got mariota mariota so to me atlanta is a team that's gonna be terrible but early on they're gonna be able sneak up on teams just like last year denver terrible team started three you know carolina terrible team started three you know it's because they're running different offenses teams weren't prepared for their type of offensive style. So I love that pick, Chad, three and a half, two. That's such a key number. I take the number as well, but this is a money line bet for me as well. Cause Atlanta, this game stinks. Like no one's gonna be betting their money line. Everyone's gonna be coming in on, like you just said, the fun, exciting James Winston Saints team. So if you want to hold out and not bet it, I get it, but I honestly would take three and a half right now. Cause that is such a key number.”
27-26 — Saints beat the Falcons 27-26 in Week 1 2022; Atlanta lost outright, so the Falcons moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“You said Detroit is being one of the most bet on over teams because that was my next favorite bet I loved Detroit at five and a half I love them at six I love them at six and a half over Seven that would give me pause But if you could still get six and a half I would take that number right now if you so inclined just because their schedule lines up very nice. The Vikings have an entire new team. They're switching their defensive style. The Zimmer's gone. They have a new offensive coordinator. They have a new DC. We've seen what's going to happen with the Bears. The Bears are kind of in this fluctuation of rebuild. We don't really know what they're going to be because they, of course, have a new coaching staff as well. The Lions still have the same coaching staff, the same OC, the same DC. It's just all there for this Lions team to really take a step up. So as long as you're getting under seven still, I love this number for this Lions team. It's even more so now the schedule is out. It's just all shaping up to”
The Lions finished the 2022 regular season 9-8, clearing the over 6.5 wins total (ESPN team schedule/results).
“so looking at this matchup i'll start with you jason any picture this golden state dallas game one wednesday night we got golden state minus five and or it's up to some books at minus five and a half but fando it's minus five right now over under uh 214.5 you got to play for this game right now so i'm on golden state for game one the the first of all throughout this entire playoff run, we've kind of noticed that Golden State's been better early in series and they've kind of faded late, which I think is directly related to their lack of overall size.”
112-87 — Golden State beat Dallas 112-87 in Game 1 of the 2022 Western Conference Finals on May 18, 2022; the Warriors' 25-point margin covered -5 (ESPN box score).
“Miami being super prepared and ready to go. I think Miami's best chance to jump up on the series is in game one. So I would think that that would be the smartest bet. But I view this as a defensive slugfest between probably the two best defenses in this field, except for Boston has significantly more offensive talent in terms of guys that can dribble, shoot and pass. And so I expect this to be a defensive slugfest. I would hammer the under in every single game. Both teams will go in extensive stretches where they can't score, but Boston will score more. And so from there, I think it's that simple. So that's why I'm on Boston. Is there any player on the heat in an open draft of the talent on both of these teams that you would take over Jalen Brown or”
Celtics 4, Heat 3 — Boston beat Miami 4-3 in the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals, clinching in Game 7 100-96 on May 29, 2022, so the Celtics-to-win-the-series pick won (ESPN schedule/results).
“in the series because they got home game one. I like the Warriors minus five at home for game one”
112-87 — Golden State beat Dallas 112-87 in Game 1 of the 2022 Western Conference Finals on May 18, 2022; the Warriors' 25-point margin covered -5 (ESPN box score).
“Luka is going to get better as the series goes on. He's going to find his numbers. I like Luka plus 210 at FanDuel to lead the series in points, rebounds, and assists per game. I think he has a good chance of doing that and he fills up the box score in a huge way.”
Luka Doncic averaged 32.0 pts/9.2 reb/6.0 ast (47.2 combined PRA per game) over the 5-game 2022 Western Conference Finals (verified game-by-game via ESPN gamelog: 20/7/4, 42/5/8, 40/11/3, 30/14/9, 28/9/6), well ahead of any other player's combined average, so the pick that Luka would lead the series in points+rebounds+assists won. (Doncic 32.0/9.2/6.0 (47.2 PRA))
“AFC South. Indianapolis Colts. Minus 105. Tennessee Titans, plus 145. Jaguars, plus 700. Texans, plus 2600. Obviously, the big news here. Matt Ryan, now the Colts quarterback. A.J. Brown, not on the Titans. Malik Willis, drafted by the Titans, will not get mentored by Ryan Tannehill. Also Malik Willis and all the other quarterbacks. Desmond Ritter fading, dropping deep, deep, deep into the draft. That was a great narrative the night of the draft. Not just because, hey, none were taken in the top 10, as I said, but it just seemed like every single GM put their thinking cap on and said, I'm not overreaching just because they're playing quarterback. Yeah. And again, shout out to Matt Freeman who gave us that amazing stat about If no quarterback goes in the top five historically in NFL history if no quarterback goes top five the under of two and a half quarterback is hit every time So something to keep in mind in the future if people are mocking quarterbacks outside of top five it pretty good bet to bet the under quarterbacks That's something I remember because that hurt me. That definitely hurt me. And we think we talked about next year, it's just a really good quarterback class. I do think that's the biggest difference. I saw some books open at six and a half over under first round quarterbacks. Obviously the out there got pounded and it dropped all the way down to five and a half and they just took the they just took the number down but you know it's like you just said teams called the bluffs they're just like go ahead take this guy like we're fine with either weight next year or we think there's enough good quarterbacks in the free agent group like again go look at the seahawks qb room and go look at the atlanta falcons qb room and tell me these teams aren't tanking like they're tanking it there is no excuse for them not to go out there get jimmy g or get baker but clearly they made a stance where they don't want to do it so look at this division chad i like jacksonville coming into it and i just thought they had the most room to grow i think they've gone now from 14 to 1 or 12 to 1 now they're down to 701 for this division so the value is gone there now the value shifted to the texans it's like it's gross go back and watch the film on davis mills go back and look at davis mills comes out this year he's the number one player taken overall you really think so 100 you kidding me are you kidding me i i would say if they could see what he did last year in the nfl 100 yes he would easily be the number one pick overall just because his upside again on tape if you put it on there this kid makes really really high level throws when he had guys all around his legs so i just look at the texans as a it's another thing where it's like should they be 16 to 1 should they be 15 to 1 for this division Yeah, that's a fair number. They're sitting at 25 to 1, 26 to 1 for this division. It's like people are kind of figuring out what we're doing here. We're betting teams that aren't talked about. They're considered a joke. Like that's what the Texans kind of are considered right now. So am I telling you to go bet a lot of money on the Texans to win this division? No, but like if you had a couple of 10 bucks, you know, 20 bucks laying around, you just want to throw it on a good long shot to win a division. I don't hate that. The Texans, they're just a very solid team. off the route. We saw last year, man, did I sweat that under a bet of them? Like they literally got the four wins and I was sweating that one. So they're just one of these teams I think they going to be better than people think I do see Tennessee taking a step back and the Colts with Matt Ryan I do like the move I do think Matt Ryan is an upgrade over Carson Wentz But he's not that much bigger of an upgrade. If you go back and look at Wentz's numbers last year, they actually weren't that terrible. He just, again, choked in these big moments. But Matt Ryan's not known for doing that. Right. So it is weird. where all people were like, oh my God, Matt Ryan's the Colts. Like that's, that's a game changer. They might be a top four, top three team in the AFC. It's, I still don't really look like at them in that way with Matt Ryan. It doesn't really move the needle for me. So if I'm just going to appear value-based, I'll either be on the Jags or Houston at this point. And you know where I stand, I've already bet the Jags. I'll probably hop off this call and throw a little, throw a little bit on the Texas just because that's crazy. They're this high of a number. I just like looking at my spreadsheet right now i had them at 15 to 1 so the fact that they're dropped that far at this point it just shows that people just aren't buying it they're just looking at them as a very bland boring team that's going to tank for a quarterback a little couple three shekels that's just what you're gonna do yeah not not even one unit like literally maybe half a unit maybe less half a little unit just a little tiny unit you don't have anything to say about the titans uh”
Jaguars 9-8 — The Jacksonville Jaguars finished 9-8 and won the 2022 AFC South, clinching with a Week 18 win over Tennessee, so the futures bet on Jacksonville won (ESPN team schedule/results).
“Raiders, plus 700. Josh McDaniels, Derek Carr, signed Derek Carr to a massive $140 million guaranteed deal. Yeah. I mean. I mean, that's the one. Yeah. We love. This is by far the best value. I think of all the divisions right now, this might be my favorite value bet. But this team is, again, Gruden did definitely – Gruden and Maydock in these NFL drafts, they did screw this Raiders team. Okay, they have holes on this defense. But, oh, my God, this offense. Like, if they can figure it out with Adams, Renfro, and Waller, unbelievable. Like, this – it's literally – again, we can go through all the league. There's just so much talent everywhere. It's got to be one of the top five receiving cores. And Derek Carr, we've seen him have those moments. Like he can make throws that only a handful of guys can make. So I hate it because I hate betting money on Derek Carr because he just always burns me. I always like, okay. Because again, he had that MVP year. Shit, man. It might be like six years ago with Amari Cooper and Khalil Mack on his team. He has that in him. He just has not been able to put it together And last year they were putting together They just had so much last year and they still somehow made the playoffs And again they were a fourth down away completion in the end zone from beating the Bengals on the road So it's ugly. It's gross. But these are the bets you need to make. And this to me is a smart bet taking the Raiders where this number should be closer to plus 400. Just because, again, I think the Chargers and Chiefs are better than them. But it's bumped way down just because people are so much higher on Denver than we are. So I love taking that value on the Raiders right now. All right. We love the Raiders plus 700 in the AFC West.”
Chiefs 14-3, Raiders 6-11 — The Kansas City Chiefs finished 14-3 and won the 2022 AFC West; the Las Vegas Raiders finished 6-11 and did not win the division, so the futures bet lost (ESPN team schedule/results).
“I already bet them at 150 to one to win the Super Bowl.”
38-35 — Kansas City Chiefs beat the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII on Feb 12, 2023; the Lions did not appear, so the 150-1 futures ticket lost (ESPN box score).
“All right, let's talk about the NFC North. Because the Packers, you know, they gave Aaron Rodgers a lot of help. Not really. The Vikings. The Packers are minus 180. The Vikings are plus 300. The Bears, plus 950. The Lions, plus 950. lions aiden hutchinson you had aiden hutchinson to go number one yeah how did it fare for you overall because obviously that was going to be a pretty significant loss well luckily he woke up in the same that's what i talked about like if you wake up and the odds are still minus 400 for walker that meant walker was probably the first pick overall so it didn't get burned too much but i mean it was pretty boring luckily kyle hamilton dropped which like i needed him not to be in the top 10 again love the kid it's just you look at a draft board safety isn't valued as is other positions um with the money so yeah i we talked last year coming into the year chad that we're gonna be one of the few people that love the lions all year because the lions are so bad and i knew coming to this year i was gonna love the lines no matter what just because i loved what they're building there which is they're building a d line they're building no line like to me you build that and you can build the rest out it's like the most important part of a football team in my opinion so everything they've done I mean dude I might have looked before the draft I think they're plus a thousand two hundred on FanDuel so they've moved a lot of money's come in because people like what they did the draft I love what they did the draft but I already love them coming into this the draft it's if you're gonna listen to this show for the next three years I'm gonna tell you to bet them to win the division and win the Super Bowl every year like I already bet them at 150 to one to win the Super Bowl. I bet them at 12 to one to win this division. I'll bet this again at nine to one to win the division. I love everything about the Detroit team Yeah I not a huge fan of Jared Goff but last year their offense schemed around his weaknesses They like really they kept things underneath They didn't put him in a position to throw turnover and make intercepts. So if they can get a cornerback or find someone to play corner for them, this is a really good team. Like their defense is really good. Their offense is actually stacked. So it's not surprising to see their number of moves. I can tell you by the time we're closer to the season, everyone's gonna be talking about the Lions. They're just a really fun team. And gamblers like us, they won money last year. So to me, I would still grab that number at 9-1. I love the Lions this year.”
Vikings 13-4, Lions 9-8 — The Minnesota Vikings finished 13-4 and won the 2022 NFC North; the Detroit Lions finished 9-8 and did not win the division, so the futures bet lost (ESPN team schedule/results).
“NFC West. Home of the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams plus 140 to win the division. The 49ers plus 185. The Cardinals plus 310. The Seahawks plus 1000. I mean, look, the Cardinals super interesting with Kyler Murray. They traded for Hollywood Brown. They must have known that the suspension for DeAndre Hopkins was coming. You don't know what you're going to get. You're losing him for six for the first six games of the year. You got Cliff Kingsbury, who usually, you know, forgets how to coach come November. The 49ers have some serious quarterback confusion and a wide receiver running back in Debo Samuel, who only wants to be a wide receiver and doesn't want to do it in San Francisco. and then you got the Rams that are a team of all-stars coming off a Super Bowl win and they got better you could arguably say they got better this offseason honestly so yep Rams one of those teams I'll throw them in with the Bills I'll throw them in there with the Bucks a couple parlays with them they're another one of these teams but best value by far Cardinals Cardinals they they choked this division away they had this division last year and they blew it the last two weeks of the season or three weeks so it's like everything you just said they're so true about this Cardinals team, they're the best value by far in this division. If you're looking for a purely value-based bet, and I bet money on them just for this division just because of it, they're closer to plus 200.”
49ers 13-4, Cardinals 4-13 — The San Francisco 49ers finished 13-4 and won the 2022 NFC West; the Arizona Cardinals finished 4-13 and did not win the division, so the futures bet lost (ESPN team schedule/results).
“But in turn, and then I like the Bruins to come out of the East.”
The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Boston Bruins 4-3 in the 2022 first-round series (May 2-14, 2022), so Boston did not come out of the East (Wikipedia).
“they're still around 20 to one to win the Stanley Cup. The Bruins are really, really good.”
The Bruins were eliminated by Carolina in the first round; the Colorado Avalanche won the 2022 Stanley Cup, beating Tampa Bay 4-2 in the Final on June 26, 2022 (Wikipedia).
“I like Edmonton from a future's perspective at 18 to one now that they've lost.”
The Oilers were beaten by Colorado 4-0 in the Western Conference Final; the Avalanche went on to win the 2022 Stanley Cup, so Edmonton did not win it (Wikipedia).
“I think we got to get your final picks. Where are you landing? Who's going to win? Give us your best odds. Give us the team you think is going to win. and give us the team that you sort of think has the most future value. Well, first, I'm going to use this time to pat myself on the back for betting the Calgary Flames before the season, 45 to 1. They're, I think, third favorite. They're that team you couldn't remember. I don't know if you even know that that team exists, honestly. They're Calgary Flames. Dude, it's Calgary. And number one. Number two, I will never forget the Calgary Flames because when I was growing up, back when they didn't wear helmets playing hockey, the Calgary Flames made the Stanley Cup. I think it was like the mid 80s. And, you know, this was when Youngblood came out. And so my friends and I, you'll see how cool we are. Like at lunch, we would do fake hockey fights and like pull each other's jerseys over our heads. And someone inevitably pretended they were playing for Calgary. that's how we got all the ladies yeah senior year sounds like it was fun chad this might have been like freshman sophomore year and we'd say like we'd be like yo you want to go pretty boy because that's what they said to rob low right let's go pretty boy and then like he had to prove it to cynthia gibb who you know got a little naked in the uh in the in the barn there and those were the days when we were loving hockey. Youngblood has probably done more for hockey than any sports movie in the history of sports movies has done for their particular sport. What a launching pad for careers. Rob Lowe, Swayze, was it Keanu Reeves was in there? So like, God bless that movie. But yeah, the Flames, I think the Flames are the team that I would pick to come out of the West. But in turn, and then I like the Bruins to come out of the East. And I think the Bruins, they've lost game one of their series. They're plus 170 right now in the series line, and they're still around 20 to one to win the Stanley Cup. The Bruins are really, really good. People just haven really been paying attention to them much because the other three teams of their division kind of just ran away from them right out the gates And so they were kind of just in the spot in there that they ended up in the first wild card spot all season So they were very uninteresting from a narrative perspective but their underlying metrics are quite good. They have the playoff pedigree, great defense and the goaltending failed them last night, but for the most part, the season has been above average. So I like Boston from a future's perspective. I like Edmonton from a future's perspective at 18 to one now that they've lost. I like them on their serious line. minus one and a half. I like the minus one and a half in game two. They're a team that can get separation really easily. So those are the teams I'm targeting mostly in terms of future value is Boston and Edmonton,”
6-0 — Edmonton beat Los Angeles 6-0 in Game 2 of their 2022 first-round series on May 4, 2022, so Oilers -1.5 covered by 4.5 goals (Wikipedia).
“number two. And I know that I saw you put in an action network app tracking your picks. You put in another Aidan Hutchinson plus money pick to go number one. What's your thinking? What's your logic on that particularly? And then I have a follow-up question for you. Yeah I should have kept waiting I thought it was just a reaction to Peter King mock draft because again he puts it out either Sunday at 11 p or 12 p Eastern or an hour He puts it out Monday morning at 6 a.m. And then you just saw this line flip because he had Walker at number one position from, I think he might have been the second pick or third pick to being the number one pick over Aidan Hutchinson. And you know I'm wired, Chad. I just try to fade the media because I just think a lot of these guys, not that they're throwing shit against the wall and hoping it sticks, but it's like, no one really knows. And people like me who my job is to find good sources and we pay a lot of money for these moles and these sources and in these different teams. And the reason I doubled down on Aiden, I'm still buying.”
Travon Walker, not Aidan Hutchinson, was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft (Jacksonville Jaguars) (Wikipedia).
“If you were betting right now, let's say you could bet right now. Are you betting Evan Neal or Ike Mekwaneu to be the first lineman drafted, offensive lineman? So a lot of stuff has come out but Evan Neal not passing the physical or apparently a red flag had popped during his combine physical I don know When you hear that stuff the week of the draft from a multiple sources news media outlets, you have to kind of pay attention to that stuff. So I really did like him because he's just, to me, the most guaranteed to be the best, you know, NFL offensive lineman. He's just very consistent. But yeah, Quanu, he's a freak and he's huge. So to me, he's got no real questions. The whole difference was he just wasn't as polished. I honestly like that value now, taking him to be the first lineman taken. Aquanu, first lineman taken.”
Ikem Ekwonu was the first offensive lineman drafted in the 2022 NFL Draft, going No. 6 to Carolina, ahead of any other lineman (Wikipedia).
“All right, well, let's talk about it. So we think Aquanu is going to be the first lineman taken. You're putting your money down. Aidan Hutchinson, Trayvon Walker, first defensive lineman taken. Again, I still believe in Aiden just because I just see him as a guy that could come in this year going to have eight sacks and 15 tackle for losses.”
Travon Walker (DE) was the first defensive lineman drafted at No. 1 overall in the 2022 NFL Draft; Aidan Hutchinson went No. 2 (Wikipedia).
“That's why it's like, again, I want to come on here and tell people to bet all this crazy stuff. And it's like we had Scott Smith on yesterday and he had some really smart, safe bets, which I have now given out to my own people because I just thought it was really smart play, which was right now. A lot of books have four and a half for the over under cornerbacks. That's a great veteran. I bet that over like I'm looking at a bunch of different marks right now of three cornerbacks in the top 12, top 15 picks.”
Round 1 of the 2022 NFL Draft had exactly four cornerbacks selected (Stingley No. 3, Gardner No. 4, McDuffie No. 21, Elam No. 23), under the 4.5 total (Wikipedia).
“what do you like yeah this is something that's kind of changed here but i think when we start looking at those top 10 teams and i land specifically on atlanta there at eight is being the primary spot for the first wide receiver come off the board garrett wilson was the early favorite and when you look at the odds he's still the favorite there at 110 the person that i'm actually Lincoln there is going to be Drake London, who you can get a little bit better odds. I think he's sitting around plus 250 right now. I just think with that coaching staff, Arthur Smith in particular, he likes bigger wide receivers. That that position group is probably the worst position group there for Atlanta in the entire NFL You start looking at what their other options might be and I would kind of lean towards edge They were pretty horrible at putting pressure on the passer as well But I just don't think that that position group there at wide receiver is one where they can sit there and go into the second round without being able to take one of these premium wide receivers. And right now I have Drake London as the DNAT guy that I think is a good bet to go off the board as the first wide receiver selected. He's got the third shortest odds on DraftKings for first receiver selected, like you said, plus 250.”
Drake London was the first wide receiver drafted in the 2022 NFL Draft, going No. 8 to Atlanta (Wikipedia).
“I think when you start looking at it, we talked a little bit more about how the landscape's kind of changing with some of these contracts. Right now that number is at over four and a half. And I think when you start playing some of these numbers like this and start thinking of it more in a poker standpoint I think you want out to very similar to the way you would play a hand of poker And I think with that cornerback number you have some outs in the form of you know some of these guys, like, you know, you start looking, you've got Kyrie Ilm, you've got, you know, Kyler Gordon, you've got Andrew Booth, like those three guys right there could all add on to, to the top three cornerbacks that are, that are selected. So I think you give yourself outs with that over four and a half number, I think the total number is going to end up being five, but sitting there at what it's at plus 120 right now, that's a bet that I like.”
Round 1 of the 2022 NFL Draft had exactly four cornerbacks selected (Stingley No. 3, Gardner No. 4, McDuffie No. 21, Elam No. 23), under the 4.5 total (Wikipedia).
“Yeah, you know, I think when we start looking at some of these and this isn't a number that's going to give you huge odds, but I think it's a very safe bet. And I think when you start looking at the over and under on safeties, you definitely have Kyle Hamilton. But that number right there is that one and a half. So Lewis seen Daxton Hill out of Michigan, you know, at minus 285. You're not going to make a huge profit here. But I think you're safe to go ahead and look, go ahead and settle with a 20 percent, you know, bump on your on your bankroll and stuff like that. I think you have those two outs. Daxton Hill is very highly regarded. He's got an expected draft position bouncing around somewhere around pick 25. Lewis seems another guy that the scouts seem to love. I think he's a great fit for Detroit there at at pick 32. I think Tampa Bay is another out that you could possibly see. Also Cincinnati. I think there's plenty of options at the back end right there to for another one of these safeties to go. And that that safety bet at over one and a half just seems like easy money for me. Like I said, you're not going to make a huge profit, but I think it's safe to go ahead and take the guaranteed money, which is what I would consider that bet.”
Round 1 of the 2022 NFL Draft had three safeties selected (Kyle Hamilton No. 14, Daxton Hill No. 31, Lewis Cine No. 32), over the 1.5 total (Wikipedia).
“Kyler Gordon's plus 110 to be drafted in the top 32.”
Kyler Gordon was not drafted in the top 32; he went No. 39 in round 2 to the Chicago Bears on April 29, 2022 (Wikipedia).
“Kaiir Elam out of Florida is at plus 125.”
Kaiir Elam was drafted in the top 32, going No. 23 to the Buffalo Bills in the 2022 NFL Draft (Wikipedia).
“And Louisine, who I just hit on at safety, is an even money bet at plus 100.”
Lewis Cine was drafted in the top 32, going No. 32 to the Minnesota Vikings in the 2022 NFL Draft (Wikipedia).
“That's crazy to me to even think about. Like, we literally were three days out, and they don't know who they're going to take. So I'm going to trust my mole, trust my source that it's Aiden. I'm not going to keep betting thousands of dollars on it because I'm already having invested in it. But every time the odds drop, like he's back to plus 250 now, Aiden, I got to throw another grain on it. So it's going to burn me.”
Travon Walker, not Aidan Hutchinson, was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft (Jacksonville Jaguars) (Wikipedia).
“And I used to love to say Dick Van Dyke. I don't know why as a kid, I used to love to say Dick Van Dyke. So of course, I bet for Heisman, Tyler Van Dyke. No other reason than Dick Van Dyke.”
Caleb Williams (USC) won the 2022 Heisman Trophy, announced Dec 10, 2022; Tyler Van Dyke was not the winner (Wikipedia).
“First bet I make always Bama national champ.”
Georgia beat TCU 65-7 on Jan 9, 2023 to win the 2022-season national championship; Alabama did not make the four-team CFP field that year (Wikipedia).
“Real quick, I got one more I got to ask Colin about for Heisman. Am I crazy for betting Bo Nix? I got him at 80-1 right now in FanDuel. I've seen the talent. I know it was always only at the home games where he would actually be good. We've seen the talent, though. I really do think this kid is professional. legit new scenery is like am I crazy here 80 to 1 on bow I mean that's that's pretty pretty big”
Caleb Williams (USC) won the 2022 Heisman Trophy; Bo Nix (80-1) did not win (Wikipedia).
“talking about uh colin you famously will make a bet as soon as you possibly can on college football futures um while you're in vegas for the college football national title game tell me right now the bets you made as soon as the futures hit the board and you could when you were in vegas we were in vegas during the national championship game and there were multiple six-figure tickets in that booth at the Westgate. And everybody was concentrating on the game in the fourth quarter. And I was already thinking about what team I'm hitting for next year. The second the game was over, I won't name the sports book, but they posted eight to one on Ohio State. I slammed it. Now it's five to one everywhere right now. You can't convince me otherwise that this is an Alabama Ohio State year in the national championship game. They return the guy that won the Heisman Ohio State returns the guy that finished fourth. They have the best weapons outside of the tight ends. And let's not forget that Ohio State now has Jim Knowles as defensive coordinator. You want to know why Oklahoma State was so good? Because they had Jim Knowles. He's got the Midas touch. Everything he turns is gold. Ohio State's biggest problem the last couple of years, they can't play any defense and they get into shootouts with teams. That's not a problem anymore. He's going to come in and clean up what they have two different defensive coordinators last year that a guy take over interim, one guy in the box come down to the field. It's been a mess at Ohio State, but that's not going to be a problem for Ryan Day. Five to one on Ohio State to win the national championship.”
Ohio State lost the CFP semifinal (Peach Bowl) to Georgia 42-41, so it did not win the 2022-season national championship; Georgia beat TCU 65-7 for the title (Wikipedia).
“Well, there was some movement on Clemson. I didn understand it because DJ Uwe Anglele did not look good whatsoever There were some 12 ones out there that got chipped down to 10 to 1 From a Heisman perspective happily there one guy that has not moved And that the guy who I centering on next looking for the best number But I can tell you that Jackson Smith is 50 to one out there And I know my podcast partner over on BBOC, we both salivated over watching this wide receiver from Ohio State dominate the Rose Bowl. This may be the best player in college football. And I think it's important to know it's like this is a quarterback college football playoff award now. but Devonta Smith, you know, happily in the NFL. Now with the Eagles, he's a wide receiver that during a pandemic with an undefeated team that went on to win the national championship, won the award as a wide receiver. Jackson Smith and the Jigba is going to get everything from CJ Stroud. He's going to make a highlight every week. And now he has a defense that's going to get him more possessions. It's going to get more chances for explosive plays. And so I think the floodgates are going to kind of open up on wide receivers a little bit and realizing that with the RPO, it's not always about the quarterback. If you have a weapon like this, they can win the Heisman. So 50 to one, you can count me in on Ohio State's biggest weapon. It's actually 60 to one right now in FanDuel. Go grab it.”
Caleb Williams (USC) won the 2022 Heisman Trophy; Jaxon Smith-Njigba did not win (Wikipedia).
“Well, I've already put a bet. The second win totals were released on the SEC West, I immediately hit Arkansas. Kind of a homer. Let me back it up. Came out at six and a half at plus money. We're going to release our projections here this summer, and you're going to have Arkansas at about 7.9. But really, it's this easy. Arkansas runs the ball.”
Arkansas finished the 2022 regular season 6-6, under the 6.5-win total (ESPN team schedule). (Arkansas 6-6 regular season)
“made two bets pretty quickly on uh the quarterback who would be the number one quarterback i believe we talked about that on the show i was with you guys previously, Malik Willis plus 200 and Kenny Pickett plus 175.”
Kenny Pickett was the first quarterback drafted, at pick 20, in the 2022 NFL Draft; Malik Willis was not first.
“until the draft this year is very different i i made two bets pretty quickly on uh the quarterback who would be the number one quarterback i believe we talked about that on the show i was with you guys previously, Malik Willis plus 200 and Kenny Pickett plus 175. But those were the only bets that I had sitting out there for about a month.”
Kenny Pickett (Steelers) was the first quarterback selected, at pick 20, in the 2022 NFL Draft.
“on that D line that's that's incredible for Jacksonville so I'm hoping that Matthew's right that the line keeps moving because I'll take more value on Hutchinson because it was at minus 300 at one point once it dropped to minus 200 I dipped in like I started buying in on it it's down to 170 now I've been buying the dip that it's been dropping down and I'm getting a little nervous because like he's talking about, there's a lot of rumors with Jacksonville. Apparently they really are unsure of what they want to do right now. So I still think it's good value because I think he is the no-brainer here.”
Travon Walker (Jaguars) was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft; Aidan Hutchinson went 2nd to Detroit.
“And so I'm going to take the under two and a half quarterbacks. If we see a quarterback go in round one or in the top 10, it's only one. And if I had to bet right now, I would bet no.”
Only one quarterback, Kenny Pickett, was selected in round 1 of the 2022 NFL Draft — the under 2.5 cashed.
“Best bets. All right. I will say Evan Neal versus Akem Aquanu. That is a great matchup in terms of who's going to be the top offensive lineman taken in the draft. If you look across the market, Aquanu is favored and I get it. He's the sexier player on film. You just see him pancaking multiple dudes when he's out run blocking. But Evan Neal is the more polished prospect. He has more versatility. He's played right tackle, left tackle. He's played interior as a guard. I think he should be favored. He's favored in the sharp mock drafts. He's favored by a number of other factors that I look at. And across the market, anywhere from plus 130 to plus 150 is a number that you can find. I am betting on Evan Neal to be the top offensive lineman taken in this class.”
Ikem Ekwonu (Panthers) was the first offensive lineman drafted, at pick 6, in the 2022 NFL Draft; Evan Neal went 7th to the Giants.
“I could see them being desperate. So, to me, I could see Malik making the top 10. I've actually bet the over two and a half quarterbacks just because it's kind of like Lamar Jackson thing I've just seen teams they trade back into the end of the first round to get that fifth year option that's a big deal instead of waiting taking a quarterback in the second round you only have them for four years they like to come back in could be Detroit that trades back into that first round and grabs that quarterback so I am actually on the opposite side I just like quarterback classes that people say the class sucks those are my favorite classes again”
Only one quarterback was selected in round 1 of the 2022 NFL Draft — the over 2.5 lost.
“Yeah. Let's talk best bets. My best bet here. I love wind spreads. This to me is the best market on these series prices. Sixers minus one and a half is plus one 24. So I'm getting the team with home court, the team with the best player in the matchup, and I'm getting them a plus number to basically win four, two or better. Here's a big key. The Raptors have the 25th best half court offense, 25th. They don't have shooters. Like I'm not, that's not me saying that William Lou, who does a great job covering the Raptors talks about this all the time. They don't have shooters and the Sixers don't generate a lot of threes is part of Jason's argument and he's right there but part of the key is they've gotten a lot better over the last since All-Star since they added Harden. Maxey was shooting like plus 45 percent from three and Tobias Harris who started the season absolutely sucking and all of Philly hated him 37 percent from three since All-Star. He's turned it up a lot. I think Maxey's going to take advantage of the other side of this matchup because he's got a little bit of size on those other guards in terms of his quickness for the Raptors I just think the Sixers have too much offense I actually taking Sixers minus one and a half plus 124 at FanDuel Jason you like the Raptors just to win the series outright plus 150 Yeah and I like your bet because I wouldn be shocked if Philly won”
76ers won series 4-2 — 76ers beat the Raptors 4-2 in the 2022 NBA first round, covering the -1.5 series spread.
“Yeah, honestly, if I'm just going off pure value, I think the best value is honestly on Toronto minus one and a half, just because Sixers always choke as a fan. And I know this and Doc Rivers historically has choked other than that one year with Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. So Sixers don't have three all the famers on their team right now. So I'm, I'm leaning towards the Sixers losing, but obviously as a homer here, I've already bet Sixers minus one and a half, but best value Toronto minus one and a half. Plus one and a half. All right. Let's go to Bucks bulls. Simon,”
76ers won series 4-2 — 76ers beat the Raptors 4-2 in the 2022 NBA first round, covering the -1.5 series spread.
“I want to ask you about this one and we're not going to spend a lot of time on this one. Cause this is going to be like, this one's a one that's priced the shortest in terms of how long the series is going to go. Bucks are minus 1100 to win the series. Bulls are plus 700. When you got a huge matchup in any sort of sports betting situation where it just seems like everybody's like, oh, they're going to kill him. Oh, this is going to be a complete wipeout. What's your instinct? Is your instinct to like, if it's not, if the market reflects that, right, it's not just that it's a trendy spot here, but the market actually shows that there's this wave in one direction. What's your instinct there as a better? I see I love the NBA that NBA is just keep it simple stupid. We know who the best players are. We know the best systems are you know what the best teams are So I probably talk to 10 different pros that this is their biggest bet Bucks minus one and a half And we seen that line running for the series price So to me I all over the Bucs The Bulls we seen it this year right Every time you see them play a good team, they lose. And that's just who they are. They just don't have the superstars to keep them in games. The Bucs are locked in. They've only gotten better this second half of the season. So I don't know about you guys, but I love the Bucs. And you're right. Keep it simple. I'm just going to take that minus one and a half”
Bucks won series 4-1 — Bucks beat the Bulls 4-1 in the 2022 NBA first round, covering the -1.5 series spread.
“So I don't know about you guys, but I love the Bucs. And you're right. Keep it simple. I'm just going to take that minus one and a half yeah i got minus two and a half at minus 170 that to me is like on the siri on the windspread that to me i'm willing to pay the 70 cents on the on the dollar there just i'm i'm okay with that because i i want to be able to cover it if you go for the sweep right you can get the sweep of fanduel at plus 270 don't mind that i get a little worried about what we call it the gentleman's sweep which is you get back to chicago the bucks let up you let them have one to be polite and you finish up at home like that seems possible the bucks play drop coverage de rosen and levine go nuts for mid-range in one of the games they win the other game in chicago and we're out of here in five that seems like the most likely scenario to me minus one minus two and a half minus 170 i gotta pay the 70 cents on it but i'm all right with that because it covers”
Bucks won series 4-1 — Bucks beat the Bulls 4-1 in the 2022 NBA first round, a 3-game series margin that covers the -2.5 series spread.
“My best bet for a futures play if you're looking [18:46] for the Eastern Conference is actually Sixers plus 600.”
76ers lost in the second round of the 2022 playoffs; the Boston Celtics won the Eastern Conference, beating Miami 4-3.
“the Sixers. Jason, what do you like in the Eastern Conference? I love that number for Boston. I was thinking about that. I was doing my play-in preview for the show, and I was looking at that 2-7 matchup with Brooklyn. And I really like Brooklyn. But every time I've watched Boston and taken that dive into what they do, they have a system that I think is built to succeed in playoff basketball, especially now that Jason Tatum is so good at accepting the double team and weaponizing it to get open shots for his teammates. Obviously the Robert Williams thing concerns me. And then you run into that issue with when teams double Jason Tatum, you get a lot of like Marcus Smart taking the three, you know, or, or like Derek. taking a three who's been a really bad shooter this year so you can see that there is some weaknesses forming there but at that number I think Boston is every bit as capable of winning the East as any other team there so I love that that number”
Boston Celtics won the 2022 Eastern Conference, beating the Miami Heat 4-3 in the conference finals.
“pretty confident that Curry's going to be back. Nuggets are plus 205 to win the series, minus 250. The win line spread is Warriors minus one and a half at minus 105. I'll just go ahead and say this. I like Warriors minus one and a half here. I cover the Nuggets locally here in Denver. They're the team I see the most of. They're exhausted. They're tired. Jamal Murray's likely not coming back. MPJ is not coming back. There's no reason to think MPJ is coming back at all. There's very little reason i think jamal murray comes back second best player is aaron gordon the warriors are going to dare him to shoot their best players will barton they're going to dare him to shoot the nuggets have have done pretty impressive work making it this far i like this matchup honestly for denver that's what sucks is if they are fully healthy i would be hammering nuggets plus 205 here if they just had jamal murray back forget mpj they just had jamal murray but this team ran out of steam they're exhausted they had to play their starters heavy heavy minutes early on the season because they had the worst bench in the NBA, dragged them down. So for me, I'm getting minus 105 on Warriors to win this in six or less. That easy for me I going to be on Warriors minus one and a half minus 105 Simon what do you think Yeah I honestly wanted to really bet the Warriors to win it all But like you just said”
Warriors won series 4-1 — Warriors beat the Nuggets 4-1 in the 2022 NBA first round, clinching with a 102-98 Game 5 win, and covered the -1.5 series spread.
“my best bet for the western conference in terms [36:26] of a future i like the warriors plus 400”
Golden State Warriors won the 2022 Western Conference, beating the Dallas Mavericks 4-1 in the conference finals.
“All right, so I should set the odds, set the table before I ask you right off the top who your pick is going to be. I don't want to, you know, I don't want to delay. Jon Rahm right now, leader, leading the field at 11 to 1. Justin Thomas, 12 to 1. Cameron Smith, 14. Dustin Johnson, 16. Scotty Scheffler, 16. Jordan Spieth, 18. Rory, 18. Victor Hovland, also 18. Before I give you my pick, I want to go through these odds just a little bit. You mentioned all those. Instead of having one dominant player, instead of we for so long would come to Augusta every year, and Tiger Woods, the prohibitive favorite, and anyone else who's out there, you can get a pretty good price on them because Tiger was such a favorite. He was so dominant at this golf course. Now, we've essentially got, I think there are 12 players right now. I believe a dozen players, depending on the book you look at, shop around, of course, but I believe 12 players who are 20 to 1 or shorter this week, which makes it, first of all, really tough. There's a lot of parity out there. But secondly, it gives you a lot of decent options, I think. So you can look around my favorite of that bunch this week is Brooks Koepka.”
Brooks Koepka missed the cut at the 2022 Masters; Scottie Scheffler won at -10 (278).
“So you can look around my favorite of that bunch this week is Brooks Koepka. I was not a believer, Chad, after his first major championship, that he could just go out and play his best golf at a major. That was back in 2017, almost five full years ago. I just thought, okay, well, he had a good week. He won a major. Then he did it twice in 2018. And finally after the third one, I said, you know what? This guy's got a lot of ego, a lot of hubris, a lot of confidence, maybe even cockiness and maybe he can just show up at majors kind of flip the switch and say all right I'm ready to go play some some great golf right now and he does it and so I you know he he is essentially the epitome of what Tiger Woods has said for years which is I want my game to peak four times per year and I've spent the last 10-15 years asking world-class players about how do you get your game to peak my favorite answer was Jason Day was I don't know he's kind shrugged at me because you know it's not like if I'm playing really well in my last event before the masters that I try to play worse so that I can play better two weeks later it doesn't really work that way so Brooks Koepka has figured out a way to get his game to peak for major championships I look at a week that we're going to have where it's going to be warm then it's going to be wet then it's going to be windy then it's going to be cold mother nature bringing in all different kinds of elements. He deals with those elements really, really well, just sort of shrugs them off. I like Kepka If you asked me a few weeks ago a lot of people did Patrick Cantlay was a top by list Recent form is not quite where I want it to be That said I only lowered him to number two in my ranking So I going Koepka and then Cantley for my favorite two plays this week So why does form not matter for Koepka, but it does matter for Cantley?”
Patrick Cantlay finished T39 (+7) at the 2022 Masters; Scottie Scheffler won at -10.
“He is 50 to 1, I saw this morning.”
Sam Burns missed the cut at the 2022 Masters; Scottie Scheffler won at -10.
“The start before that at the Players, he was right there in contention, played in the final group or second to last group on that Monday afternoon before shooting the final round 76 The kid is really really talented 25 years old The only thing I can find in that why he is why his odds are as long as they are is the fact that he hasn played this event before in past. So we all know no masters rookie has won this event since fuzzy Zeller back in 1979. It's been an awfully long time. It doesn't mean they can't do it though. I mentioned Will Zalatoris earlier. I mentioned Jordan Spieth who took to this event very quickly. I can see Sam Burns jumping out there, playing really well on Thursday and then playing well throughout the weekend. So I like him for outrights. I've bet him already for outrights. Really like him for first-round leader, though, because he's a quick starter. Finished 16th on the PGA Tour last season in round one scoring average. He's 12th already this season. Plays well on Thursdays. Plays well usually on Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays as well. So he's a guy that I like for full tournament, but especially first-round leader bets.”
Sungjae Im led after round one at 67 (-5) at the 2022 Masters; Sam Burns was not the first-round leader.
“And so those of us who do, we're almost at a disadvantage for this one because we'll look at Tony Finau this year and go, well, his best finish is a share of 19th place. That was three months ago at a shortened field and the ball striking numbers are okay, but they're not great. And he really hasn't done much since that win in the FedEx cup playoffs last year. And it's been a while now. And those who sort of helicopter in and only pay attention to the majors, we'll look at a big number next to Tony Finau's name and go, ah, he's good.”
Tony Finau finished T35 (+6) at the 2022 Masters, outside the top 10.
“Then for a top 20, if I was to tell you guys the best ball striker, the best iron player on the PGA Tour. so far this season is not Colin Morikawa. It's not Justin Thomas, not Will Zalatorris. It's Russell Henley. And Russell Henley is a guy who's due for what a lot of people call the positive regression, sort of the oxymoronic term that always comes out in the analytics world, which is essentially I look at him like a major league baseball pitcher who's 7-12 with a 270 ERA. And you say at some point, look, the numbers are there. He's pitching well. He's just not getting the help. He's not getting the luck. I mean, Henley's a guy who last year at the Wyndham Championship led for three and a half rounds, wound up missing a putt to get into a playoff and finished in T7. That's never happened before in the last 20 years. The fact that you could lose by one and not cash a top five ticket. Henley's had a whole lot of bad luck like that over the last couple of years. I think that he's due for some good luck. I've got them just for a top 20 this week, but top 10 wouldn't surprise me whatsoever.”
Russell Henley finished T30 (+5) at the 2022 Masters, outside the top 20.
“I'm going to go with the Toronto Blue Jays plus 900 to win the World Series.”
Blue Jays were swept 2-0 by the Mariners in the 2022 AL Wild Card Series and did not reach the World Series; the Astros beat the Phillies 4-2 to win it.
“I'm going to go with the Toronto Blue Jays plus 900 to win the World Series. Look, if the Blue Jays had the name Boston or New York across the front of their jersey, I think people would be hyping them up a lot more than they are currently. This is the best team in a loaded AL East. They lost Marcus Simeon and Robbie Ray in the offseason, but brought in Kevin Gaussman, who is a legitimate ace to replace Ray. They brought in Matt Chapman, who had a down year offensively last year, but is going to improve their defense a lot and probably rebound with the stick. The rotation is insanely deep with five established major league pitchers, and that's before you even get to guys like Ross Stripling, who's a competent swingman, nor Nate Pearson, a top prospect not all that long ago who's dealt with injuries in the last few years. Anything they get from him is just an added bonus. Their bullpen is a little bit of a question mark, but they have a lot of established competent major league leaguers there like Adam Simber, Yemi Garcia. Jordan Romero is a closer that everyone's going to be grabbing in their fantasy leagues if they haven already He doesn have a lot of name recognition but again has a chance to be one of the top closers in the league Their win total right now is 92 and a half So I obviously like the over there That one of my favorite bets but World Series odds at plus 900 right now that right in line with the Yankees, but they're a significantly better team than the Yankees, significantly better team than the Red Sox. So I really like them at plus 900.”
Blue Jays finished the 2022 regular season 92-70 (92 wins), short of the 92.5 win total — the over lost. (Blue Jays 2022: 92-70)
“[8:58] I think they're still valuing the Jays number. That's my biggest World Series bet. Got it at [9:01] 1,200.”
Blue Jays were swept 2-0 by the Mariners in the 2022 AL Wild Card Series and did not reach the World Series; the Astros beat the Phillies 4-2 to win it.
“I think they're still valuing the Jays number. That's my biggest World Series bet. Got it at 1,200. I have a unit and a quarter on the Jays to win the World Series. The other two World Series teams that I sprinkled, I have a half unit on the Brewers at 16 to 1, and I have a quarter unit on the Phillies at 40 to 1. I think getting the second seed, particularly in the NL, is going to”
Brewers finished 86-76 and missed the 2022 playoffs entirely, well short of winning the World Series.
“The other two World Series [9:07] teams that I sprinkled, I have a half unit on the Brewers at 16 to 1, and I have a quarter unit on [9:12] the Phillies at 40 to 1.”
Phillies reached the 2022 World Series but lost to the Astros 4 games to 2.
“I should say the Mariners that are 84 and a half.”
Mariners finished the 2022 regular season 90-72, well over the 84.5 win total — the under lost. (Mariners 2022: 90-72)
“Marlins over 75 and a half, Mariners under 78 [21:20] and a half and tigers under 78 and a half.”
Tigers finished the 2022 regular season 66-96, well under the 78.5 win total — the under cashed. (Tigers 2022: 66-96)
“The one over that I like, my favorite over is the Marlins over 75 and a half out there right now.”
Marlins finished the 2022 regular season 69-93, well under the 75.5 win total — the over lost. (Marlins 2022: 69-93)
“totals this year are really ugly, disgusting win totals, but among the worst teams in baseball and, and I'm buying in to the hype of, of how bad these teams are going to be. My first one is with the Oakland Athletics. You've all seen the movie Major League, I presume. That's what's happening to the Oakland Athletics right now. Hello, you know us. We're a Major League Baseball team. But nobody recognizes us, not even in our own hometown. The Oakland Athletic ownership is actively trying to make them lose games and not necessarily in a way like we saw with teams like the Cubs and the Astros early last decade where they're trying to like save money while building up this super farm. This team is just like outright making the worst team it possibly can. Its projections are a little high right now because they still have Frankie Montes and Sean Minaya in the rotation who they been actively shopping all off season will probably be moved by July at the latest The win totals right now are 70 and a half 71 and a half range This is a 100 loss roster. I don't see any way this team doesn't finish in last place in the AL West, even behind the Texas Rangers. 100 losses are within question. I think that the projections are way too high here. And the second team is the team that's going to be competing with Oakland for worst record in the American League, and that's the Baltimore Orioles. Oh, no! We suck again! This team loses 100 games every year. They're currently projected at 62.5. Like the A's, they are consistently trying to be bad. They don't even tinker on the margins. You see a lot of bad teams like the Pirates, who will make all these stealth, you know, waiver claims and try to find these reclamation projects. Baltimore doesn't do that. They just stand pat and they sign bad veterans who they're going to flip at the deadline. They do have a couple of intriguing prospects who are coming down the pipeline. Adley Rutschman, a lot of people know, a former first overall pick is going to take over at catcher pretty soon. They have Grayson Rodriguez, who's one of the most intriguing young pitching prospects out there. But I don't know if or when we're going to see them. And even with them, one or two players don't make that big of a difference in a win total in MLB. I think we're going to get another 100 losses. They're going to be in the 50s again this year. So Oakland and Baltimore under those are my two favorite bets ugly I love the stat oh go ahead”
Orioles finished the 2022 regular season 83-79, well over the 62.5 win total — the under lost. (Orioles 2022: 83-79)
“Who's going into the sportsbook and is ready to fire on an Orioles over? Who's going in the sportsbook and is going there with the intention of firing on a Pirates over? I just need to be contrarian from the sense that my numbers are coming in a few wins higher than these teams, regardless of how terrible they are. So I, you know, you have to just take the best available number like Orioles over 62 and a half. I'm not taking that. I found it over 60 and a half. So I'm going to play that right. When you see a number that's you have to set a cutoff before you even go in and look at the numbers where at this number I have to play because you can't see the number and go get a little wishy washy about it. So set your targets, play your targets, regardless of the name on the front of the jersey. It sucks.”
Orioles finished the 2022 regular season 83-79, clearing the 60.5 win total — the over cashed. (Orioles 2022: 83-79)
“Do you have any other player props this year where you think you have a good shot at a 50 to one or greater? I'm going to give you an exactly 50 to one, Simon. And I like this bet just as much. We were on Vlad most term run and most RBIs last year around the same price range. My guy this year is Kyle Schwarber. I love everything about this bet. I know Chad likes him since Kyle Schwarber. 50 to one out there at a couple books. So Schwarber pays for 41 home runs last season. He projects for 15th roughly this year. So this is how I do player props, right? Like I look at my projections, I try to bucket guys based on where their projections are. And then I look at the odds board and say, oh, well, this guy's bucketed with the, he shouldn't be bucketed with the 30 to one guys, but you're giving me a 70 to one on them or 50 to one. Well, Schwerber on the odds board is bucketed more with guys in the 50 to one, 60 to one group, when based on projections, he should be in that 25 to 30 range, right? Here's the reason I really like this bet. Working with Kevin Long, new Phillies hitting coach, He was the national sitting coach last season If you not aware of Kevin long he helped Curtis Granderson unlock back to back 40 home run seasons helped Daniel Murphy double his power output with the Mets went absolutely ballistic in the playoffs went from 13 to 25 home runs year over year helped Ryan Zimmerman, late career resurgence. This guy unlocks power. Look at all the data for Schwarber last season. Highest launch angle of his career, increased his fly ball rate by 10%, ninth in barrels per bat at ball event. That ranked in the top 10, obviously ranked in the top 10, but amongst guys like Aaron Judge, other superstar power hitters, best hard hit rate of his career. And he chased pitches outside the zone less often than ever before. So improvements across the board for Schwarber modified his swing under Kevin Long. I think he's probably going to break that 40 home run mark, whether he gets to the top, whether he plays enough to hit that mark, we'll see. But 50 to one is outrageous value on a guy who should be a top 15 home run performer. Kyle Schwarber, Indiana Hoosier. That's right.”
Schwarber led the NL with 46 home runs but did not lead MLB; Aaron Judge led all of baseball with 62. (Schwarber 46 HR (NL leader); MLB leader Judge 62 HR)
“And it's most RBI and it's Freddie [37:10] Freeman at 25 to one.”
Freeman finished with 100 RBIs; Pete Alonso and Aaron Judge tied for the MLB lead at 131. (Freeman 100 RBIs; MLB leaders Alonso/Judge 131 RBIs)
“Seiya Suzuki talk and you didn't take the bait. Oh, well, if we're talking award futures, I'll go all over Suzuki. It's player specific, man, whatever you want it to be. Seiya Suzuki is not a long shot by any means. And this is actually a rare instance where I'm siding with one of the favorites. If you look at baseball prospectus's Pocota projections for the season and Suzuki's 50th percentile outcome, so if everything just breaks in an average fashion for Suzuki, we're still looking at a player who's going to be worth 3.7 war, hit 24 home runs, and his strikeout to walk numbers in Japan were insane, and they project to translate well in the United States. 71 walks against 87 strikeouts. He's going to play every day. He's already in his late 20s. And if you can find him in the plus 400 to plus 500 range, I think that health pending, he should be the runaway favorite for NL rookie of the year, where right now he's tracking in the second, third, fourth range. You see me with my Osaka Tigers hat on. I love me some Japanese baseball. He tore it up for the Hiroshima carp over the last couple of years, and he's going to bring it right back over here to America. And it's going to be very exciting, even especially at Wrigley field where we're going to see those balls fly out of the park. The bleacher bums are going to love this guy. I'm all over him for NL rookie of the year. He's a good defender too.”
Michael Harris II of the Braves won the 2022 NL Rookie of the Year award; Seiya Suzuki did not win.
“so i am on the red raiders on the money line at minus 115”
78-73 — Duke beat Texas Tech 78-73 in the Sweet 16; Texas Tech moneyline busts (ESPN).
“Love it. So we got next up, Providence versus Kansas. Seven and a half. Am I crazy? Is that way too many points in this matchup? Or is Kansas that legit in your opinion? What do you think, BJ? I would sit here and tell you analytically that Kansas has a ton of advantages and that they should be able to blow out Providence. I mean, shot quality has a minus 12 for Kansas. They are, you know, their top 40 in terms of points for possession and transition. Providence outside the top 300. So Kansas should be able to just absolutely torch them. But again, I don't really know what's going on with Providence because they have this weird ability for teams to just not hit open shots against them. It's very, very strange. I don't know how they do it, but teams just for whatever reason can't hit open shots. And Kansas has struggled all year getting margin against as big favorites. And they did it against a very undermanned Creighton team who was out without their starting point guard and center. I mean there are so many times they could have just gone on runs and put that game away but they just couldn So this is a game I will ultimately passing because Providence has beaten me down into the ground and Kansas also I just don trust them as a big favorite So I'm just ultimately just passing on this game and Providence will probably win by 20 and I'll just go even further into the ground. BJ sounds like a man defeated Stucky. I am very defeated. I like Providence. I'm on Providence here. I think it's too many points. look Providence has a bunch of they're one of the most experienced teams in the country they're well coached and BJ pointed it out Candace can't really extend against teams that are just like slightly inferior I think Providence also has a number of options of guys they don't rely on one guy getting hot it's a really well-balanced team I think that they can you know their physicality can give Candace some problems Candace in transition is deadly against anybody and And Providence's transition defense is awful. So if Providence isn't hitting shots, this could get really ugly. But they're going to have to hit shots anyway to stay in it. That just means that it could go from like 10 to 20 quick. But I think this is too many points. I've been on Providence the first two rounds. I'm on them again.”
66-61 — Kansas beat Providence 66-61 in the Sweet 16; Providence lost by 5, covering +7.5 (ESPN).
“No, I'm actually going to disagree with stuff. I actually like UCLA minus two. And I agree that there are some wording designs for UCLA in terms of, you know, the catch and shoot threes and defending off pick and rolls and everything. But, you know, North Carolina is a top 20 team in terms of efficiency off all screens. and that's how they got that's basically how they beat baylor well ucla is top 50 and top 50 in defending those off ball screens and also be able to handle baycott down low because they're a top 50 team in terms of defending post upsets so that's going to put a lot of pressure on north carolina to knock down those three pointers which if you look at their shot quality stats they are due for some negative regression shooting the ball ucla you're going to see a ton of mid-range jumpers and for good reason because they're top 10 in terms of efficiency from the mid-range while North Carolina is only average at defending from the mid range. It's going to be very difficult. It's from North Carolina, you know, obviously if they're able to dominate the defensive glass, then that's great, but not being able to turn opponents over, that's going to put a lot of pressure on them to keep UCLA off the offensive glass. So we'll see if Hawke has plays. I mean, if, if he's, if he's not a hundred percent, I still do like UCLA at minus two or better, but I'm actually on the Bruins in this matchup.”
66-73 — North Carolina beat UCLA 73-66 in the Sweet 16; UCLA lost outright by 7, busting -2 (ESPN).
“[41:37] get on transition and they're number one in the nation in transition efficiency so I think this [41:43] is a really easy handicap the problem with Miami all year is their interior defense they not big and rebounding not really concerns against Iowa State I think it a great matchup for Miami That my check I think everyone on it Don care I think it a great matchup [41:58] I'll be on the Canes money line here. [41:59] Maybe pair them with Purdue if you want or Gonzaga if you want to get the price down. [42:05] But I think Miami advances.”
70-56 — Miami beat Iowa State 70-56 in the Sweet 16; Miami moneyline covers (ESPN).
“So I'm on the Hurricanes minus two.”
70-56 — Miami beat Iowa State 70-56 in the Sweet 16; Miami won by 14, covering -2 (ESPN).
“movie things that why this next category is funny best actor this feels like a makeup award this year so Will Smith I looking right here for King Richard Mine is 600 That crazy And Benedict Cumberbatch who Chad just talked about a little bit with the power of the dog, to me, that was pretty good acting. Like, I did not like him at all. And he's, to me, a pretty likable guy. So he's sitting there plus 550. That's really, that's a crazy discrepancy from the first place guy to the second place guy. Is that really, is that just what it's a four-month conclusion this year that it's just going to be a total foregone conclusion and and i thought i mean they look ben it was great i think that the will smith thing is half of a makeup oscar and what i mean by that is i think it's a great performance he is worthy of winning sometimes people talk about makeup oscars where people win oscars for roles that weren't as challenging as other roles but it feels like a makeup oscar because we've liked will smith for so long and he's been nominated two other times there were a couple other times he should have been nominated that he wasn't like even going back to six degrees of separation. And so I think there's a sense of like, it's just his time and we love him and we want to give it to him. I mean, he's been quote unquote running for six months. He released his long awaited autobiography. He's doing all this massive publicity, but I thought he was really good. And I, yeah, there, it's on your, it's on your shelf. And I, I watched that movie and I, I felt like I was not watching Will Smith and Bennett Cumberbatch is a brilliant actor for the people who've never seen his Sherlock Holmes BBC show. It's incredible, but he's just going to be around. He's going to get nominated five more times. So this to me is the lock of the night. Like I, when I watched King Richard 10 minutes in, I was like, yeah, he's winning the Oscar. Like this is, this is when he's, when he's like fighting with the gangs who are like stalking the, his daughters is like, okay, he's winning the Oscar. Like he's amazing. So that, that is the lock. I don't know how much you can win on that.”
Will Smith won the Best Actor Oscar for King Richard at the 94th Academy Awards (Wikipedia, corroborating official Academy results).
“It just you know wasn translating Best supporting actor We talked about Power of the Dog We talked about Kirsten Dunst son in that movie and how Benedict Cumberbatch sort of terrorizes him Cody Smith plus 22 plus 220 to win the Oscar Troy Kotsur for Koda is at minus 350 kieran hines i looked it up i want to make sure i was pronouncing it correctly because it's gaelic kieran hines belfast plus 1800 jesse plemmons one of my favorites as a friday night lights advocate devotee the power of the dog kirsten dunst husband in real life and in the movie plus 2800 jk simmons being the ricardos he was probably the best part of the movie for me uh plus 3500 this one is this is another kind of lock of the night i mean again if you do go off the trend troy kotzer has won every major award look well you have to decide about sunday since coda only”
Troy Kotsur won the Best Supporting Actor Oscar for CODA at the 94th Academy Awards (Wikipedia, corroborating official Academy results).
“On Thursday, I'm going with the San [26:32] Diego State Aztecs playing two and a half against Creighton as my favorite bet”
72-69 — Creighton beat San Diego State 72-69 in OT; SDSU lost outright, so -2.5 spread busts (ESPN).
“and I think they be able to dominate Miami down low So I love the Trojans to cover minus one and a half in advance the second round”
68-66 — Miami beat USC 68-66; USC lost outright, so -1.5 spread busts (ESPN).
“I think the line should be around five. [19:09] So I do like Chattanooga at plus seven and a half.”
54-53 — Illinois beat Chattanooga 54-53; Chattanooga lost by only 1, covering +7.5 (ESPN).
“So I really don't think the wild cats should be underdogs at all here. So I love Davidson money. line plus two, whatever you want to do, throw it around Robin. That's my best bet for the entire Friday. You like Davidson to make a run this year? Yeah, they are, I believe, around eight or”
74-73 — Michigan State beat Davidson 74-73; Davidson moneyline busts (ESPN).
“So I love Colgate in this matchup. [34:08] Another fun team to throw in a money line around. [34:10] Robin, I love them. [34:11] Plus seven and a half.”
67-60 — Wisconsin beat Colgate 67-60; Colgate lost by 7, covering +7.5 (ESPN).
“So I love Seton Hall on the money line, minus 110. I think they should be [35:45] closer to two or three point favorites.”
69-42 — TCU beat Seton Hall 69-42; Seton Hall moneyline busts (ESPN).
“Yeah, that's my, that's my shortest future odds I did. I just did the Ravens and the simple fact that they were so injury, so many injuries last year, we know they'll come back. They'll be better. They had their plan against an easy schedule, just because they came in last place or second to last in that division. It's like, we talk, we talk every year. That's, that's a big deal. Like who you're playing week to week. if you come in first all of a sudden again you come in first place like the bangles did that's a first place schedule that's tough to get the same type of seating or the same type of wins to get that seating so i'm just purely value play off the ravens it's like i'm with people i don't know how i feel about lamar i don't know i'd feel if i was a ravens fan about paying lamar but to me this is a guy who was an mvp at one point we know his athletic talent we know how good he is in the football field he's healthy they're completely different team and no team had fewer losses by like a smaller margin last season than the Ravens. Like they're one of those teams that you flip a coin last year and they could have been the one seed if they had just flipped a lot of those one score games. So I definitely like the Ravens as a bounce back candidate this year.”
The Baltimore Ravens went 10-7 and lost in the AFC Wild Card round to the Cincinnati Bengals, 17-24, on January 15, 2023; the Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII 38-35 over Philadelphia on February 12, 2023, so the Ravens futures bet lost.
“You know there a couple other teams that fit the criteria you guys are talking about Teams with starting quarterbacks who have shown greatness or potential for greatness, or have had some kind of success, who are on rookie deals. And what's remarkable is none of these teams are amongst the top teams with the shortest odds bills not a you know well they're cap space is yeah and they're all they're all their cap space is not cap spaces is wrecked the same packers not on a rookie deal bad cap space chiefs not on a rookie deal rams not on a rookie deal they're always trying to maneuver for cap space because they're just trading away picks to get star players. Broncos now with Russell Wilson. Niners, Cowboys. Then come the Ravens. Niners are interesting. I'll just wait before you go on. Just the Niners right now are over the cap. But if they trade Jimmy Garoppolo, that clears up about 26 million cap space. That puts them above average in the top half of the league in terms of cap space. And they would have a quarterback on a rookie deal and pretty much every quarterback they've put out there has like performed average or above average like even uh Bethard and Mullins had like I saw a tweet that uh like Wieters in I think it was yards per attempt since 2018 and like Bethard and Mullins were in the top half of the league along with Jimmy G who was number two so like the Niners would quickly kind of ascend into that same conversation. It's just that Trey Lance still has a lot to prove, I think, is more the issue there. It's like whereas Herbert and Burrow have kind of proven themselves to a degree already, Lance hasn't. But they would kind of be that other team that's there. But their odds also reflect that. Yeah, I also, to me, I'm sort of slimming down the categorization to quarterbacks on the rookie contract who have actually succeeded. at some level, right? And so in the NFL, Trey Lance hasn't done that yet. So to me, the Niners are not sort of befitting of your money because he hasn't done anything and their odds are too short. And they're over the top Brady though. That's the Tom Brady effect. Like people like me, I put a dime on it. just because just in case Tom goes there like I know it's a long shot but I mean holy hell dude if they got Tom Brady with that defense that offense that'd be crazy”
The San Francisco 49ers lost the NFC Championship Game to the Philadelphia Eagles, 7-31, on January 29, 2023; the Kansas City Chiefs went on to win Super Bowl LVII 38-35, so the 49ers futures bet lost.
“I like their path. That's who I prefer. I could see the argument also for Virginia. You can get them, I don't know, 10, 12 to 1. I think actually 13, 14 to 1, you can get Virginia Tech around 10, 12 to 1. And, you know, Virginia is going to grind games down to a halt. Their defense isn't as good as in years past. They're still well coached. They've competed with the best teams in the conference. I think that's where I would look from a futures perspective. I personally have a flyer on the Hokies, the Virginia Tech, who probably need to win this or get to the final to get into the dance. And so they're going to be super motivated. And I think that their path is favorable.”
82-67 — Virginia Tech won the 2022 ACC Tournament, beating Duke 82-67 in the final on March 12, 2022, so the futures bet cashed.
“if you looking for a team to get hot and run through this tournament Alabama is there the other top four seeds Look they obviously top four for a reason They all under 10 to one for a reason I really don think there much value in taking them because they really just traded all season long And a lot of them what funny if you look at, for example, like Auburn and Tennessee, they've been, if the entire tournament was played in Knoxville or Auburn, like one of those teams might win the actual NCAA tournament, but that's not the case. They haven't been that great away from home. So for me, even though Kentucky's the three seed. They're clearly, in my opinion, I think the best team in the conference, but at a price of plus 190, I'm definitely not playing them. So Alabama 15 to one as a shot would be where I'm going in the SEC.”
Alabama lost in the second round of the 2022 SEC Tournament to Vanderbilt, 76-82; Tennessee won the tournament, beating Texas A&M 65-50 on March 13, 2022, so the Alabama futures bet lost.
“Chad, you're a big fan of the Moneyline rollover. I think Iowa is the prime category for that if you want to go Iowa. I mean, Iowa has to win four games in four days. Now they're deep. They have a really good bench. They're playing as well as anybody. But they're going to beat Northwestern, which is a decent team, Rutgers, and then potentially Illinois and then Purdue. I mean, the Moneyline rollover is going to pay more than five to one on that. but yeah they're my pick to win it they're playing as well as anybody”
75-66 — Iowa won the 2022 Big Ten Tournament, defeating Purdue 75-66 in the championship game on March 13, 2022, so the futures bet cashed.
“It hard to look away from Arizona at minus 120”
84-76 — Arizona won the 2022 Pac-12 Tournament, beating UCLA 84-76 in the final on March 12, 2022, so the -120 favorite bet cashed.
“Nevada, for example, they took San Diego State to the wire in their two meetings. They're now healthy. And a lot of people before the year thought that they could win this conference. You have two great guards in Sherfield and Cambridge. You have a couple seven-footers in their lineup. Warren Washington's back. They're dangerous. I think you can find like an 80, 90-1. I took some of that personally.”
Nevada lost in the quarterfinals of the 2022 Mountain West Tournament to Boise State, 69-71; Boise State went on to win the title 53-52 over San Diego State on March 12, 2022, so the Nevada longshot lost.
“yeah 810 you're you're probably going to get you know i think vcu is going to be in davidson's going to be in i think the bet here is bonnie's five six you can find five to one or better that's kind of my strike price this bonnie's team before the year people thought they should be ranked”
St. Bonaventure lost in the quarterfinals of the 2022 Atlantic 10 Tournament to Saint Louis, 56-57; Richmond won the title, beating Davidson 64-62 on March 13, 2022, so the St. Bonaventure bet lost.
“Friedman, number one overall pick, first QB taken. So on first quarterback taken, I already have positions, Malik Willis at plus 200 and Kenny Pickett plus 175. At FanDuel, those lines are now Malik Willis, I believe, plus 150 and Kenny Pickett plus 120. So shout out me on getting that sweet, sweet closing line value.”
Kenny Pickett was the first quarterback selected in the 2022 NFL Draft (No. 20 overall, Steelers); Malik Willis went in the third round (No. 86, Titans), so the Willis first-QB bet lost.
“Friedman, number one overall pick, first QB taken. So on first quarterback taken, I already have positions, Malik Willis at plus 200 and Kenny Pickett plus 175. At FanDuel, those lines are now Malik Willis, I believe, plus 150 and Kenny Pickett plus 120. So shout out me on getting that sweet, sweet closing line value.”
Kenny Pickett was the first quarterback drafted in the 2022 NFL Draft, taken No. 20 overall by the Pittsburgh Steelers, so the futures bet cashed.
“I think for value, I get to Nikola Jokic at plus two 70.”
Nikola Jokic won the 2021-22 NBA MVP award, his second MVP, cashing the +270 futures ticket.
“I think Giannis at plus three 90.”
Nikola Jokic, not Giannis Antetokounmpo, won the 2021-22 NBA MVP award, so the Giannis (+390) futures bet lost.
“Amen, brother. All right. Listen, before we get out of here real quickly, future is already out. Chiefs 7 Bills 7 Rams 10 Cowboys 14 Cowboys 14 to one Niners 14 to one Bengals 14 to one Packers uh currently 16 to one And then there a you know a uh uh uh quartet of teams in the 20 to 22 range Ravens, Broncos, Bucks, Titans. Have you made any futures bets immediately? Oh, yeah. So people, my biggest rule for making futures bet is you never bet less than 20 to one. OK, if you if you're betting less than 21, you are giving sports books free money because you're kind of taking away your own value and betting that number. Like last year, perfect example. At this point last year, I believe the 49ers were 14 to one. If you just waited, you could have got them 20 to one heading into the playoffs, which we were like literally one play away from them making a super old 49ers. So I never bet futures less than 20 to one. So immediately right when the market opened, Pittsburgh Steelers love, love, love Pittsburgh Steelers. Love that they are going to be on these teams in the market for a quarterback. They have the defense. We already know that right now in Fandle, they're 70 to one, 70 to one. Get this Pittsburgh team, which we know is one of the better defenses. All that's missing is a quarterback. They have great weapons on offense, too.”
The Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII 38-35 over the Eagles, so the Pittsburgh Steelers (70-1) futures bet lost (ESPN). (Super Bowl LVII winner: Kansas City Chiefs 38, Philadelphia Eagles 35)
“in the 20 to 22 range Ravens, Broncos, Bucks, Titans. Have you made any futures bets immediately? Oh, yeah. So people, my biggest rule for making futures bet is you never bet less than 20 to one. OK, if you if you're betting less than 21, you are giving sports books free money because you're kind of taking away your own value and betting that number. Like last year, perfect example. At this point last year, I believe the 49ers were 14 to one. If you just waited, you could have got them 20 to one heading into the playoffs, which we were like literally one play away from them making a super old 49ers. So I never bet futures less than 20 to one. So immediately right when the market opened, Pittsburgh Steelers love, love, love Pittsburgh Steelers. Love that they are going to be on these teams in the market for a quarterback. They have the defense. We already know that right now in Fandle, they're 70 to one, 70 to one. Get this Pittsburgh team, which we know is one of the better defenses. All that's missing is a quarterback. They have great weapons on offense, too. So that if they can get Watson, if they can somehow get Rogers at the NFC and bring him to AFC, it's like that's an immediate boost. You're not going to find my other favorite bet is right now, which I mean, you could take the Ravens if you wanted to a 21 to one. But I love this Ravens value coming to the season because you're still going to have people that are going to like the Browns. And now Cincinnati is going to have all the hype coming to the season. And so if we're getting the third seed in NFC North and it's the Ravens, you know, I'm going to love that Chad. They were the most injured team in football. You going to get really good value on a team that just will not have that same injury history next year They be healthier They much better than their record showed this year So that one of those people need to be on the lookout But right now most books legal books at least they're only going to have Super Bowl futures.”
The Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII 38-35 over the Eagles, so the Baltimore Ravens (21-1) futures bet lost (ESPN). (Super Bowl LVII winner: Kansas City Chiefs 38, Philadelphia Eagles 35)
“they're only going to have Super Bowl futures. So if I'm just going to throw a shot in the dark, 70-1 Pittsburgh, I like that number. That's a really good price. And then I hate to do it to us again, Chad, but we're simply just playing value here. Atlanta Falcons, 60-1. who's to say they're not the best team right now in the nfc south okay we know the bucks don't have a quarterback we know carolina sure as all doesn't have a quarterback so right now 60 to 1 for a team that could win their division and get home field i'll take that in atlanta i feel like that's good value as we sit here and a day after the super bowl so atlanta pittsburgh it's gross it's ugly but 70 to 1 60 to 1 that's great value all right there you have it we've run down the super bowl”
The Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII 38-35 over the Eagles, so the Atlanta Falcons (60-1) futures bet lost (ESPN). (Super Bowl LVII winner: Kansas City Chiefs 38, Philadelphia Eagles 35)
“I make this line three, four and a half, four. That's good value for this Bengals team. And I don't know if you want to touch on it, Chad. My favorite thing, we talk every year about it. I love betting Super Bowls adjusted lines. That's just something I've always done. We talk all the time. Nine out of 10 Super Bowls do not matter with the spread. So when I look at this line, people are going to say, did you take the Bengals money line? I do it different. I take a minus two and a half with this Bengals team. So I'm going to take the four and a half, the four with the Bengals. But instead of taking Moneyline, I take the two and a half because historically, never in the 55 year history of football has a game ever landed on two or one. Again, in the entire history of the Super Bowl, if you've bet either team minus two and a half, you've won that bet because it's never, ever, ever landed on two or one. I don't know why. That is weird. It's a weird stat. But someone told me that very early on. And they like you can take advantage of this because instead of taking Bengals money line you know plus 150 or plus 160 you take the minus two and a half it plus 200 So this is what year three of us doing a Superbowl Chad we two and O in Superbowls That means if we done this every year, again, we had better odds doing it. But if we did this every year, you'd be up plus 400,”
CIN 20, LAR 23 — Rams beat Bengals 23-20 (CIN margin -3); Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“We like the Bengals plus four. You're betting the first half Rams minus [27:23] three You betting the Bengals adjusted line minus two and a half I already bet the Bengals plus four”
CIN 20, LAR 23 — Rams beat Bengals 23-20 (CIN margin -3); Cincinnati Bengals +4 covers (ESPN box score).
“I make this line three, four and a half, four. That's good value for this Bengals team. And I don't know if you want to touch on it, Chad. My favorite thing, we talk every year about it. I love betting Super Bowls adjusted lines. That's just something I've always done. We talk all the time. Nine out of 10 Super Bowls do not matter with the spread. So when I look at this line, people are going to say, did you take the Bengals money line? I do it different. I take a minus two and a half with this Bengals team. So I'm going to take the four and a half, the four with the Bengals. But instead of taking Moneyline, I take the two and a half because historically, never in the 55 year history of football has a game ever landed on two or one. Again, in the entire history of the Super Bowl, if you've bet either team minus two and a half, you've won that bet because it's never, ever, ever landed on two or one. I don't know why. That is weird. It's a weird stat. But someone told me that very early on. And they like you can take advantage of this because instead of taking Bengals money line you know plus 150 or plus 160 you take the minus two and a half it plus 200 So this is what year three of us doing a Superbowl Chad we two and O in Superbowls That means if we done this every year, again, we had better odds doing it. But if we did this every year, you'd be up plus 400,”
CIN 20, LAR 23 — Bengals lost the game outright 20-23, so Bengals -2.5 (needing an outright win by 3+) busts (ESPN box score).
“actually embedding Rams first half. I like the value on the Rams first half. It's up to minus three now for Rams first half. Hopefully you can shop around and find a minus two and a half.”
Rams led 13-10 at halftime, a 3-point margin that clears the first-half -2.5 line (ESPN box score). (Halftime: Rams 13, Bengals 10)
“We liked the under at 48 and a half. We thought it would get steamed [26:49] down even more. It really hasn't. It's still sitting at 48 and a half taking the under.”
CIN 20, LAR 23 — Rams 23, Bengals 20; combined 43 points is under the 48.5 total (ESPN box score).
“And the first one's a field goal prop. [7:47] And it's the shortest field goal made, over 27 and a half yards.”
The shortest field goal made in Super Bowl LVI was Evan McPherson's 29-yarder, clearing the 27.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Shortest FG made: 29 yards (Evan McPherson))
“So before we get to the players like Kroonar I wanna start with you What markets have you seen that you immediately thought okay there an opportunity So I mean first off I look at every single market and I try to come up with a way to project whatever that market is And I have two non-player props that I think are winners. And the first one's a field goal prop. And it's the shortest field goal made, over 27 and a half yards. So, you know, obviously if either kicker gets a field goal attempt inside 25, inside 27 yards, this prop is toast. So I looked at, you know, the season long data and 12.5% of Evan McPherson and Matt Gay's attempts have been inside the 27 yard line. I would put this around, you know, a 60% chance of hitting that, you know, if there is a field goal made that there's going to be, there's not going to be a field goal within 27 half yards. And let me just say that double check with your book. This prop should be voided if there's no field goal made. So that's part of my calculation is if there's at least one field goal made, there's a 60% chance that we're not going to see one under 27 and a half yards. So I love that one. And the other one that I like that I would never bet on like any other Super Bowl is which team will call the first timeout. And I think in this case, the Rams should be the clear favorite. Anytime you watch a Rams game, it's pretty clear that Sean McVay doesn't really care for timeouts. He just uses them like they're going out of style. So one guy, Michael Lopez, did an in-depth analysis on coaches and their use of timeouts. And Sean McVay led the league with 2.9 unnecessary timeouts per game. And I can't think of a more unnecessary timeout typically than the first timeout. I went back and I was going to just see how the Rams have called timeouts the past few games. And I went back and I saw they have called the first timeout in nine straight games. So that's enough for me to take what's typically a pick them. You could get Rams probably minus 115 at most books. So that's my other favorite non-player prop prop. All right. I have”
The Rams called the first timeout of Super Bowl LVI, with 12:56 left in the 2nd quarter during their touchdown drive (ESPN play-by-play). (First timeout of the game: Los Angeles Rams)
“So the first thing I'm looking at is the first play of the game, Will it be a pass attempt or a rush attempt? And I love pass attempt at plus 118.”
The Rams' first offensive play of Super Bowl LVI was a Cam Akers 4-yard run, not a pass attempt, so the pass-attempt prop lost (ESPN play-by-play). (First play: C. Akers 4-yard run)
“then the next one [10:53] no points in the first six minutes at minus 122. I love that.”
Odell Beckham Jr. scored the game's first points on a 17-yard TD catch with 6:22 left in the first quarter (about 8:38 elapsed), so no points were scored in the first six minutes (ESPN). (First score: Beckham Jr. 17-yd TD catch, 6:22 left in Q1)
“And the final one is the first quarter under. Under 10, you can get at FanDuel, [11:41] nine and a half of some other places.”
First quarter ended Rams 7, Bengals 3 for exactly 10 combined points, so the 1Q Under 10 pushed (ESPN box score). (Q1 score: Rams 7, Bengals 3 (10 total))
“I love betting these under especially these first half unders what were the sort of your non-player prop markets that you were paying attention to um it all depends I mean looking at this one like I know Stucky says he hates betting things before the game starts I actually love that it's like I'm a gambler let's get this started so heads or tails like I'm all into that stuff. I tell people to ask me, should they bet? I say, yeah, throw a couple of bucks on it. You literally are losing money technically by the value. Like it should just be even money. They're charging you minus one 10. Like the books know what they're doing. It's free money for the sports books, but it's fun. Like everyone's sitting there on the TV, drinking your beer, betting that. So for more serious when I love the two point conversion every year, it's at a plus number. We've just seen the last, especially the last 20 years where these coaches have kind of updated their playbooks. If a team gets down double digits in the Superbowl, historically, the two point hits at 80% clip. So that means if either team gets up by two touchdowns, we're going to be cashing this bet. Last year didn work out for us with the chiefs The chiefs just couldn score a touchdown So it mainly you need the team chasing to get the two pointers And it didn work out for us last year Makes me love it even more this year It a good number too I seeing a plus 135 at certain books I think it's plus 120 at FanDuel. Raybon and Kroener, you both mentioned heavily researched props,”
The Rams' only two-point conversion attempt of the game failed, so no 2-point conversion was scored and the Yes prop lost (ESPN). (Rams 2-point conversion attempt: failed)
“Simon, if you were to give me your favorite player props right now that you are smashing, will smash hoping to smash if the market moves a little bit what are they Yeah and and i i when i look at these kind of player props like i i do have a system for it but nowhere near as extensive as sean and chris are like i i'm definitely more of a spreads and totals kind of guy but the the super bowl is where you can really get great value on the player props and it's like the rare instance where i bet more on props than i do even on the game just because that's where you're going to find the value so the the biggest one that jumped out to me how many people love Tee Higgins so when i saw his number it's gone up for sure but the rationale was probably just ramsay's gonna shadow chase so that's why you're gonna get a good number with t higgs and when you're looking at this style that's that's that is a really good price for him he's uh right now he's at 69.5 on fandle that's that's a good number for him his athleticism what we think this game's gonna go i could easily see him reaching that number especially where he's got to step up he's not gonna get in Ramsey that's a big moment for him my other favorite one is another number two receiver it's Odell Beckham Jr.”
Tee Higgins finished with 100 receiving yards, over the 69.5 line (ESPN box score). (Tee Higgins: 100 receiving yards)
“he's been really good to me these playoffs I've just been betting his over props I've been betting him to score touchdowns he keeps delivering so I look at this offense we already know what Cooper Cup's gonna do like he's gonna probably end up putting up 100 they're gonna shadow the whole defense to him eventually they'll adjust and just have him double box or triple box like they're just gonna make it so if they're going to give up a catch to Cooper cup, it's only going to go for 10, 15 yards where Odell, we've seen them get open. We've seen them make these big plays in these playoffs. So I love that number. I think it's really short, uh, seeing it at 61.5 right now in FanDuel.”
Odell Beckham Jr. finished with 52 receiving yards, under the 61.5 line (ESPN box score). (Odell Beckham Jr.: 52 receiving yards)
“Yeah, so that's actually my favorite long shot is Tee Higgins 60 to 1 to win the Super Bowl MVP.”
Cooper Kupp was named Super Bowl LVI MVP, not Tee Higgins, so the 60-1 Higgins MVP longshot lost (ESPN). (Super Bowl LVI MVP: Cooper Kupp)
“Kroner, you first. Give me your thoughts on Tee Higgins as MVP or any other MVP candidates that we should be thinking about. Yeah, so that's actually my favorite long shot is Tee Higgins 60 to 1 to win the Super Bowl MVP. If you look at the past 20 Super Bowls, four receivers have won it. And this Super Bowl has some really good receivers in it. So I think that, you know, looking at Cooper Cup, Oll Beckham, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, I think that's sort of the sweet spot when it comes to value betting on the MVP. And both, I should mention, both starting tight ends are dealing with sprained MCLs. So they probably suit up but they going to be limited and they could be decoys So that boosts these wide receivers value even more in my opinion I just think Tee Higgins is the guy where you know as I mentioned it the Rams will put extra resources in slowing down Ja'Marr Chase and the Rams play a ton of zone. And we've seen this season that Tee Higgins tends to thrive against zone coverage. So I think this is all setting up for Tee Higgins to have a, you know, potential big enough game to win MVP. But Higgins is a guy I think has been undervalued all season long so just I'm looking to cash in with a 60 to 1 long shot on him to win MVP. Raybon you feel the same way about Higgins you have any thoughts on Super Bowl MVP? I love it we had our Super Bowl odds draft at the Action Network and I actually grabbed Higgins and for people out there that have followed us for a while you may remember I think it was my first year at action in our odds draft I took Julian Edelman as like a 20 to 1 long shot to Super Bowl MVP. Oh, and what happened? He won it against who? Sean McVay's Rams. So without a touchdown. And I think that's the key is that for the Bengals to win this game, you know, yes, they could get in a shootout, but I think the more likely kind of outcome is that they figure out some crazy second half adjustments and they're able to kind of do what they did to Kansas City and slow down the Rams in the second half and maybe win a lower scoring game. So I think that puts it to where if Chase is getting you know do it having a normal game but not crazy not a monster like 200 yard game that means Burrow may not be having a monster game because Chase and Burrow have been pretty much perfectly correlated with their monster games but Higgins could still go for like 100 yards even if he doesn't get a touchdown there's a precedent for wide receiver winning against these very Rams with 100 plus yards no touchdowns in the Super Bowl so I love Higgins I think uh Jalen Ramsey's pretty interesting at 80 to 1 if you like the Rams”
Cooper Kupp was named Super Bowl LVI MVP, not Tee Higgins, so the Higgins MVP bet lost (ESPN). (Super Bowl LVI MVP: Cooper Kupp)
“Kerner, run down your faves, your fave favorite props for me. So, you know, I have a ton, but let me focus on my top two. And the first one I already mentioned is Cooper Cup, longest reception over 28 and a half yards um this is one of the first props i locked in because like i mentioned i was surprised to find value on a cooper cup over honestly because we know books are probably taking a ton of action on the over so i wanted to get on this quick a lot a lot of books have moved it up to 29 and a half some have moved up over 30 But look out for 28 and a half out there because I have him going over the 64 of the time Based on his season of date game logs he actually gone over the 75 of the time So I being fairly conservative with my 64 estimate But even at 29 and a half I still have him clearing this at 61 This line should be closer to 33 and a half So love Cooper cup, longest reception over 28 and a half yards. And then, you know, it's the super, hold on, hold on, hold on. Let me follow up there. You say it should be closer to 33 and a half. Yep. You wanted a 28 and a half. Uh, I got it yesterday, 28 and a half, uh, minus, I think one 30 maybe. Um, and that's when I was listening to the podcast within two hours. I was listening to your and Raybon Action Network Propapalooza podcast within two hours of it being posted. Is that 29 and a half, some places at 30? How high would you go? What's the ceiling on what you would bet on this? I would probably bet up to 30 and a half. That's when the win probability is going to drop to about 58%. So every yard is going to dock about 3%. So just think of it that way. So usually 58% is my threshold and that's 30 and a half. So I would bet it up to 30 and a half. Got it. All right. See, there you go. That's an important calculation right there.”
Cooper Kupp's longest reception in Super Bowl LVI was 22 yards, under the 28.5 line (ESPN box score). (Cooper Kupp: 22-yard long reception)
“And that's Kevin Huber, his longest punt to be over 52 and a half yards. [36:45] And my simulator has them clearing this 62 percent of the time.”
Kevin Huber's longest punt was 54 yards on 6 punts, over the 52.5 line (ESPN box score). (Kevin Huber: 54-yard long punt (6 punts))
“Let's start it off with Matthew Stafford under five and a half rushing yards.”
Matthew Stafford rushed for 6 yards, over the 5.5 under line, so the under lost (ESPN box score). (Matthew Stafford: 6 rushing yards)
“And my second favorite one is Samaje Perine, under 14 and a half. [39:42] combined rushing and receiving yards.”
Samaje Perine finished with 0 rushing and 0 receiving yards, well under the 14.5 combined line (ESPN box score). (Samaje Perine: 0 rushing + 0 receiving yards)
“It's Ja'Marr Chase will have more rushing yards than Cooper Cup. it was minus 140 but it's already been bet up to minus 160 I think it should be closer to minus 230”
Ja'Marr Chase had 4 rushing yards (1 attempt) while Cooper Kupp had 7 rushing yards (1 attempt), so Chase did not out-rush Kupp (ESPN box score). (Chase 4 rush yds (1 att) vs Kupp 7 rush yds (1 att))
“my long shot it goes [46:57] against chris a little bit but not really it's my guy stafford two touchdowns 101 he's had two [47:04] rushing touchdowns these playoffs”
Stafford threw 3 passing TDs but had 0 rushing attempts and 0 receiving yards, so he scored no rushing/receiving TD himself and the 100-1 longshot lost (ESPN box score). (Matthew Stafford: 3 passing TDs, 0 rushing/receiving TDs)
“This is a terrible number at 5.5. I jumped on that very early. So I think you got to take that. And my second favorite one is Samaje Perine, under 14 and a half. combined rushing and receiving yards. So Piran, before going over last week on that long screen touchdown, he'd been under this number in five straight games. He's likely going to need three touch opportunities to get there because he averages under four yards a carry, about seven yards per catch. So, he's had just one, more than one touch just once in the three postseason games. He really hasn't been a big factor. And now we're talking about the Super Bowl. He'd be lucky to get multiple touches in this game. And even if he catches multiple passes, which is unlikely because his receptions prop is one and a half, you know, he would need, he would probably still need a third touch to go over that. and his most likely outcome is probably one touch. So I think this number is way too high. And just again, based on the recency bias of him scoring that long screen pass touchdown that kind of inflated his average, but we're looking for the median here. And I think his median is actually in the single digits in terms of his scrimmage odds. So Samadji Piran under 14 and a half rushing and receiving and Matthew Stafford under five and a half rushing. I thought you said something really interesting in the podcast that you and Kroener did. Again, go check it out. Action Network Podcast, Propapalooza. You talked about how the Bengals game plan might only have one great play for him in there and they might have used it already. Yeah, so if you watch the AFC Championship game, you notice Piran got that screen pass touchdown, which was well-designed. Didn't mean for it to go for a touchdown, Honestly, it was more like one of those plays that you're hoping gets you, you know, a good chunk. But he took it all away. And then he had another play that actually could have gone for a touchdown, but he ran the wrong route. And so that was later. So, you know, that's before that, again, he had it had he'd done nothing for five games straight. So they use like they had these two plays drawn up for him to kind of catch the Chiefs off guard, you know, because when Mixon comes out, it's usually OK. We don't have to worry about whoever's in the backfield. We got to worry about Chase and Higgins and Boyd. and Uzoma. So it's like they they they kind of threw everything they had in terms of the Samadji Pirine tank out in that Chiefs game. I wouldn't be surprised if this dude like he's he's liable not to play a snap in this game. All right. In the spirit of Convince Me, which is the show that the three of us do Sunday mornings, 11 a.m. Eastern at Action Network HQ. That is the place where everybody who's been listening to favorites knows you can get our thoughts and insights on lines as they are changing in real time That where everything up to the minute On that show each of you is usually tasked with having to convince me of what bet I going to take, whether it's a side, a total, player, prop, whatever. You've got to convince me of everything. I've already bet Samaji Piran. I bet him under 14 and a half because that was available.”
Samaje Perine finished with 0 rushing and 0 receiving yards, well under the 14.5 combined line (ESPN box score). (Samaje Perine: 0 rushing + 0 receiving yards)
“I already bet Cooper Cup over 28 and a half.”
Cooper Kupp's longest reception in Super Bowl LVI was 22 yards, under the 28.5 line (ESPN box score). (Cooper Kupp: 22-yard long reception)
“I already bet Cooper Cup over 28 and a half. I already bet Kevin Huber over 52 and a half [42:52] longest punt.”
Kevin Huber's longest punt was 54 yards on 6 punts, over the 52.5 line (ESPN box score). (Kevin Huber: 54-yard long punt (6 punts))
“take, whether it's a side, a total, player, prop, whatever. You've got to convince me of everything. I've already bet Samaji Piran. I bet him under 14 and a half because that was available. I already bet Cooper Cup over 28 and a half. I already bet Kevin Huber over 52 and a half longest punt. I'm going to bet Tee Higgins over 69 and a half. I'll probably bet him MVP. Simon, on the show, Raybon's MO all season has been, I'm going to name the ugliest prop I can name to try to get Chad to bet it. He just named Matthew Stafford under five and a half, Samaji Pirine under 14, under 15 and a half total receiving yards or total rushing and receiving yards as a professional better you hear something like Matthew Stafford under five and a half yards to me that just feels so I know what Raybon is saying about the value and the odds that's one broken play in a game where everything can go haywire every second because everyone's nerves are so frayed yeah and but Chris is coming from it from a volume better standpoint where it's like if he loses this one on the prop he'll get it back down the road just because it eventually evens out so that that to me is scary as hell though like you just said he just has one broken play he takes it 20 yards you're just like all right I just need a couple big sacks and that's over but I like it just because he's taking advantage of what he just talked about the public is betting that number up because Stafford's been running the ball last couple weeks so to me he's playing that smart he's getting a good value on a good number let me just mention too um you know the Rams are the favorite in this game I'm not saying that like they're the best value on the spread but did a favorite in this game so matthew stafford could get like a six seven yard scramble uh three nail downs negates that right and that's what i was gonna say like famously patrick mahomes a couple years ago his play his rushing prop was like 29 and a half or something like that crooner i don't know if you remember the exact number i had yeah i had patrick homes under 29 and a half rushing yards and he had it he was about like 40 yeah he was over four i think He was at 40 feet. So he had three kneel downs that equated to like minus 15 yards. Cause he took, he was trying to run the clock as well. So he ran backwards and kneeled down for like minus 10 yards at the clip It was the most amazing win I ever had It honestly was one of the best wins I had it too And I kept watching I like am I winning this right now Kerner, I'm giving you one last chance to give me one smash it right now player prop. Oh, man. So I have a few rushing props, but this one I love. It's Ja'Marr Chase will have more rushing yards than Cooper Cup. it was minus 140 but it's already been bet up to minus 160 I think it should be closer to minus 230 but you know the Bengals have been giving Chase rush attempts in each of their three playoff games um it makes sense you know if they're struggling to get him the ball they get the ball in his hand so they have some design rush attempts whereas Cooper Cup I mean it's easy enough for him to get targets like he gets enough targets and receptions the game they don't really give him design carries so Cup only has two rush attempts all season that went for two yards or more whereas Chase has seven and four of those have come in the playoffs. So there's a chance neither one gets a rush temp and this, this bets avoid, but I have this being closer to 70% chance. So like I said, this should be closer to, you know, minus two 30. So I love the value we're getting at minus one 60 here. All right. We got Ja'Marr Chase, more rushing yards than Cooper cup. We've got Kevin Kuber over 52 and a half for max punting yards. We've got Cooper Cup over 28 and a half for longest reception. We've got Samaji Pirine under 15 and a half receiving and rushing yards. Matthew Stafford under five and a half rushing yards. We've got Tee Higgins over 69 and a half receiving yards.”
Tee Higgins finished with 100 receiving yards, over the 69.5 line (ESPN box score). (Tee Higgins: 100 receiving yards)
“Immediately got that up to four I have bet the Bengals plus four The money is currently coming in on Rams and the bets”
CIN 20, LAR 23 — Rams beat Bengals 23-20 (CIN margin -3); Cincinnati Bengals +4 covers (ESPN box score).
“i already bet the three and a half i already bet the four with the bangles [28:23] it touched four and a half and my runner texted me he's like you want it i was just like [28:27] yeah”
CIN 20, LAR 23 — Rams beat Bengals 23-20 (CIN margin -3); Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I do want people to grab the under now just because it is like we grabbed at a 50 and a half Sunday night. Now it's down to 48.”
CIN 20, LAR 23 — Rams 23, Bengals 20; combined 43 points is under the 48 total (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Bengals at seven and a half.”
27-24 — Bengals beat Chiefs 27-24 in OT (AFC Championship); Cincinnati won outright, so Bengals +7.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“So nothing's changed, buddy. Like if you're giving me seven, I'm still going to take it. I get why you're taking the seven and a half. I know a bunch of other pros have taken a seven and a half, but I am starting to feel more and more comfortable taking this chiefs team, knowing that so much Bengal money is coming in.”
27-24 — Bengals beat Chiefs 27-24 in OT (AFC Championship); Kansas City lost outright, so Chiefs -7 busts (ESPN box score).
“Simon says bet the Niners plus three and a half.”
17-20 — Rams beat 49ers 20-17 (NFC Championship); San Francisco lost by 3, covering the +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“as we sit here right now, Chad, I'm, I'm right there with you, buddy. Like all these professionals, me, we're all over the 49ers. We're on the three and a half. We have our 20 to one future, which sorry again about the Titans eight to one that didn't work, but we still have a 20 to one on the 49ers. And at this point, again, we'll talk about that next show about hedging that. That's just a great ticket to have in your back pocket because you can take the three and a half now, which is a key number and you don't have to take the money line on the ramp of the 49ers. If you don't want to, you can just let that future ride. You have a 21 money line right now on the 49ers. So I'm, I'm with you. I'm scared about it. That it's just sat there at the three and a half. Cause I'm like, yo, I thought it'd be three by now, but I bet it. That's my biggest bet right now of the weekend. I, I bet it three and a half. Like Chad, I woke up expecting it Monday morning to be down to three. It wasn't better. It again, woke up again this morning, still a three and a half better again. So we'll see about the injury news.”
17-20 — Rams beat 49ers 20-17 (NFC Championship); San Francisco lost by 3, covering the +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm cool with taking the chiefs now at this seven.”
27-24 — Bengals beat Chiefs 27-24 in OT (AFC Championship); Kansas City lost outright, so Chiefs -7 busts (ESPN box score).
“People are just talking about the Chiefs and the Bills. Like, whoever wins that game is going to win the AFC. People are just sleeping on this Tennessee team. So, you're right there, Chad. Like, I got to take this number. I got to take Tennessee. As long as it stays under four, you're getting a great number. Even if it hits four, I still think that's a good number for this Tennessee side and the under, like we talked about. I just – I like Tennessee to ball control this game. Again, amazing story by Cincinnati. It feels like they're a year or two away from playing an AFC championship game. So they got to pay their dues. This is one of those games where if it's since he was at home, I'd maybe think about them in the upset. But the fact they're on the road, like Chad just said, after such an emotional big win, their coach going around, giving game balls out of all those bars. Like, I can't get over how cool of a story that is. But that just felt like that was their Super Bowl. So we usually win these spots. Like last week with the Raiders, We faded the Raiders off that huge emotional win against the Chargers. It worked out for us. Maybe we got a couple of calls go our way. We got a little lucky. But those are the kind of situations. That's why you play those kind of numbers. And again, with this Tennessee team, I think we're getting a good number. Reminder that the Titans minus three and a half are my scooch roulette pick. And I'm saying it now because we're going to transition into the Chiefs and the Bills a little bit more deeply.”
19-16 — Bengals won 19-16 at Tennessee (Divisional Round); Titans lost outright, so Titans -3.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“out of the gate first game we loved Tennessee at minus three and a half nothing I have heard or seen since then makes me disagree with that”
19-16 — Bengals won 19-16 at Tennessee (Divisional Round); Titans lost outright, so Titans -3.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“go below 500 this week i just really like the sides running i like the total is like again I got three unders one over I might as well be four unders like I I could flip come game time but I can tell you right now my I made a small bet on the over just because I just really don't want to be cheering for an under and uh my home first Josh Allen matchup your unders are Cincinnati Tennessee under 47 it uh Green Bay San Francisco under 47 Tampa LA under 48 and a half And you like over 54 and a half in Kansas City Buffalo Follow everything we're doing in the Action Network app.”
19-16 — Bengals beat Titans 19-16 (Divisional Round); combined 35 stays under the 47 total (ESPN box score).
“But we are with the Kansas City Chiefs minus two, minus one and a half against the Buffalo Bills.”
36-42 — Chiefs beat Bills 42-36 in OT (Divisional Round); Chiefs margin +6 covers -2 (ESPN box score).
“How is it that the big balls bed of the week is one of the best teams of this generation? I don't know. How are we alone? How are we in a fucking foxhole? I don't know. But we are with the Kansas City Chiefs minus two, minus one and a half against the Buffalo Bills. my man all right tennessee minus three and a half chiefs minus two niners plus six rams plus three”
36-42 — Chiefs beat Bills 42-36 in OT (Divisional Round); Chiefs margin +6 covers -2 (ESPN box score).
“but I can tell you right now my I made a small bet on the over just because I just really don't want to be cheering for an under and uh my home first Josh Allen matchup your unders are Cincinnati Tennessee under 47 it uh Green Bay San Francisco under 47 Tampa LA under 48 and a half And you like over 54 and a half in Kansas City Buffalo Follow everything we're doing in the Action Network app.”
36-42 — Chiefs beat Bills 42-36 in OT (Divisional Round); combined 78 clears the 54.5 total (ESPN box score).
“I did bet the Rams at plus three early this morning.”
30-27 — Rams beat Buccaneers 30-27 (Divisional Round); Los Angeles won outright, so Rams +3 covers (ESPN box score).
“So it's scary, Chad, but I'm doing it, buddy. I believe in this Rams team. I'm taking that number. It also scary when you do this Look I like the Titans I like the Chiefs I like the Rams You know it not going to be another weekend where it sort of predominantly favorites And so it just scary to think are we on every wrong side Like is it going to be the Bengals and the Bucks and the Bills? And then we haven't talked about the Packers and the Niners yet, but I like the Rams here too. I bet the Rams, I'll put it in the Action Network app. Oh man. You could argue every week you need the bounces to go your way this is the like all these teams are so close again the action network keeps tweeting out this is the shortest lines all combined ever since what 1988 like this is this is one of the best divisional rounds we've had in a long time just max competitive edges on both teams so you're dead on chad like we're gonna need bounces to go our way to for us to win and cover these numbers like four no this week that's just pure luck like yeah i could act like I have all the skill in the world. No, that's pure luck if you're going 4-0 this week because all these teams match up so well with one another. The stat that you're referring to is this weekend, the combined total for the point spreads in all four games is below 14, which is the first time that's happened. I love the under. I know a bunch of professionals. They really like the under in this matchup between the Rams. And we've seen what this Rams defense can do. They shut down that Cardinals team like it was nothing last week. Obviously, they're not going to do that against Tom Brady, but with Matthew Stafford shakiness and Tom Brady going up against a much better defense than that Eagles team, again, I don't think they're going to be in a lot of short fields against this Rams team, hopefully, with Stafford. So I like them. I'm with the pros on that. Right now it's sitting at 48.5, 49. I'd take this down to 47. So that's a good number taking that under. All right, last game on the board. San Francisco 49ers visiting the Green Bay Packers. The Niners are six point underdogs. You had alluded to the other day conversations that are happening about Jimmy G's health. There hasn't been anything official that's come out, but there still continues to be a lot of chatter about how healthy he is. Not to the point that Trey Lance is going to play, just sort of his ability to execute, which is making me very anxious about betting the Niners a plus six. I'll retweet a clip out. He practiced yesterday. Jimmy had looked like he had really good zip on the ball. Again, it's hard to say because who knows what his injury is. But the rumors are like that even I seen even their beat writers write about it It his shoulder It his throwing shoulder that he got a little banged up on Didn look like much though Again in that practice he had good zip on the ball Wasn throwing it at guy feet Wasn throwing it over their head Put it right in their chest right in their hands, right by their heads. Like if as long as he has accuracy and the ball is coming out of his hand quick, I'm back on the 49ers. I think Jimmy, he did exactly what I needed to see. I needed to see him look healthy, make passes and not just be like a lazy, you know, practice two-step drop just throwing it like really seeing him put some you know oomph behind his passes and really throw a tight spiral look good like looked exactly what i expect jimmy to look like so nothing's changed buddy i'm going to probably sprinkle more on the first half money line for this 49ers team i am full game just because again i've talked to a bunch of pros they're right like i'm i might be buying too much into my own future in this 49ers team that they're going to pull the actual upset off with Green Bay. It's fair argument to say it's Aaron Rodgers' year. Again, he's at MVP. They're the best team of football. When they're fully healthy, all their pieces are there. They are the best team. We talked all the last show about their weakness is running. They cannot stop the run on defense. We saw this 49ers team to that Dallas Cowboys team. They made Dak sit on his ass. He couldn't get a rhythm. The man could not find a rhythm. You saw once he found a rhythm was in, well, the fourth quarter because they kept getting short fields and they kept getting the ball and they had more time with the ball this is the this is the formula to beat this aaron rogers team like aaron rogers we've seen it when like they lost that buccaneers the bucks yeah they got lucky that scotty miller touchdown before halftime last year the nfc championship game but they also ball controlled they really ball controlled that game kept rogers off the field he made a little comeback at the end of the game once he got in a rhythm but again it was too late by then so looking at this 49ers team i have to believe that their run game is going to make this game close. Six is such a big number. I really can't believe it's just sitting up there. That's what I kind of feel like a little bit like a fool taking it. But then I look at the numbers and it looks like it's public and sharp money coming in heavy on Green Bay. And in the playoffs, it's usually good to be on the opposite side of the public and the professionals. The bookmakers usually know what they're doing. So unless this number shoots only up to seven, six and a half, I'm feeling pretty damn good about taking a six year. That's a fair number. That's a really sharp number too, because again, we talk about time, Chad, it lands on six often. Okay. It doesn't really land on seven. It's more likely to land on six. I love the value there. Not again, not going to put as much on the full game money line, just because I have a futures with the 49ers, but first half money. Green Bay coming out slow after extended rest against a team 49ers that they're ready for this. Like, again, Shanahan, he's really dominated his ex-existence. And LaFleur, they beat him this past season 30 to 28 against the 49ers. We talked about that. Green Bay had some miracle play at the end with Rodgers to get that field goal to win that game. We know the 49ers were not good to start the year. They're much, much better now, much more confident. Nick Bosa also is practicing. We're not practicing, but he was on the field with his helmet yesterday. going through concussion protocols. Fred Warner is supposed to be back too for this 49ers defense. Big, big deals to me for this team. So I'm sticking to it, Chad. I believe in this 49ers team. I still think they have a really good chance to win outright, but taking that six, that's the smart player. You take that number. Yeah, it's funny. It's the one game that I just cannot seem to get behind. And I normally have so much confidence betting the Niners as a big dog. And I don't know why I'm having a hard time you know probably because it's Jimmy Jimmy G playing in what is it five degrees in Green Bay for Sunday it'll be two degrees and a windshield below zero so fuck I'm scared too buddy but it's like I got it like we saw last week Shanahan's run blocking scheme they dominated Dallas I'm running that ball and that's what I have to believe in it's like this guy yeah he's one of the worst ever in the fourth quarter and this he can choke away a win like nobody but taking those six points. That's just a lot of points for Shanahan in the playoffs. All right. All right. I just say for our big balls bet you like the 49ers I was going to say Kansas City Chiefs Yeah Yeah No that fair because we going against really really smart groups taking that number Yeah Like that to me it feels like it that feels like the foxhole and the big balls better the week because everybody is against us Like we have not heard from our collective sources and we have entirely different sources that anybody is liking the Chiefs in this game. Everybody seems to love the Bills. And here we are. Let's climb down into the foxhole. How is it that the big balls bed of the week is one of the best teams of this generation? I don't know. How are we alone? How are we in a fucking foxhole? I don't know. But we are with the Kansas City Chiefs minus two, minus one and a half against the Buffalo Bills. my man all right tennessee minus three and a half chiefs minus two niners plus six rams plus three two favorites two dogs afc favorites nfc dogs this could go a million different ways it could”
30-27 — Rams beat Buccaneers 30-27 (Divisional Round); Los Angeles won outright, so Rams +3 covers (ESPN box score).
“that's happened. I love the under. I know a bunch of professionals. They really like the under in this matchup between the Rams. And we've seen what this Rams defense can do. They shut down that Cardinals team like it was nothing last week. Obviously, they're not going to do that against Tom Brady, but with Matthew Stafford shakiness and Tom Brady going up against a much better defense than that Eagles team, again, I don't think they're going to be in a lot of short fields against this Rams team, hopefully, with Stafford. So I like them. I'm with the pros on that. Right now it's sitting at 48.5, 49. I'd take this down to 47. So that's a good number taking that under.”
30-27 — Rams beat Buccaneers 30-27 (Divisional Round); combined 57 clears the 48.5 total, so the under busts (ESPN box score).
“going through concussion protocols. Fred Warner is supposed to be back too for this 49ers defense. Big, big deals to me for this team. So I'm sticking to it, Chad. I believe in this 49ers team. I still think they have a really good chance to win outright, but taking that six, that's the smart player. You take that number.”
13-10 — 49ers beat Packers 13-10 (Divisional Round); San Francisco won outright, so 49ers +6 covers easily (ESPN box score).
“They ball control. If Joe Burrow has one or two three and outs, it's over for Cincy. So I made this number four. I still think you're getting a good number if it hits four for Tennessee. I would take a three and a half, but I'm cool with people waiting. You can wait and get the three, but I don't know what the public's going to do with this number, but I can tell you professionals are going to take Tennessee in this spot Yeah well that what I was confused about to be honest because I saw the three and a half and I thinking to myself there no way the sports books would post this as three and a half unless they really, really felt good about the Titans, because they know that the public is going to come in and want to take the Bengals. and they will, I think, eventually on the half point. Right now, the money is on the Titans. The bets are on the Titans, but the discrepancy between the money and the bets is very large, meaning 83% of the money is on the Titans, 65% of the bets. And that's just because they opened it at two and a half. They hung a bad line with Tennessee and they just got bet up real quick. Again, it's a soft open when they give up those lines. They're not going to take 20, 30K bets on that. They're going to maybe take at the top 10K. But that's probably why you're seeing the money discrepancy, just because we talk all the time. The public usually doesn't bet till Saturday night, Sunday morning. That's usually when they come in. So that makes sense that so much money is coming early on in Tennessee. Larry Ogunjobi, that's the defensive tackle who's out. Yeah, if I don't try to pronounce a name, there's a there's a reason. Thank you, Chad, because I saw I was just like, maybe I can just get away with talking about the bestie tackle. But yeah, he's seriously, he's one of the most important players that since he defensed, but no one cares because it's a D tackle. So people don't even know anything about this guy. I'm telling you to that run defense. He is huge. This, this Bengals team. Do we think there's a shot? This line moves down. That's what I'm hoping. Like, again, I took the two and a half. I took the three. I took a three and a half just in case it does go up to four, which is what I make this game. But I do think the public will come in. It's just, they love Joe Burrow. They love what they've seen from this offense. and no one trusts Tennessee. There's a reason Tennessee is plus 850. People just don't trust them. Their Super Bowl future is plus 850. No one just trusts the Tennessee Titans. So that's why I'm shocked this wasn't three. I assume they would make this game three. The fact that they opened at two and a half and then shot it up to three and a half just shows you that they might have hung a bad line. They should have just opened it at three. So we'll see. It could get to four, but I don't mind taking the three and a half because it is a key number.”
19-16 — Bengals won 19-16 at Tennessee (Divisional Round); Titans lost outright, so Titans -3.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“Also because in the entire conversation, the only game that I felt compelled to immediately bet when we were talking about it was Tennessee. Yeah, there's only four games. It's a little like more magnified. I don't think we'll be in the foxhole until Thursday. It's very possible that we go into the foxhole on San Francisco. 100%. That's what like I just like that was that was going to be my favorite bet heading into this week because I just knew they were going to be undervalued against the screen bait team. But I just need to see what the deal is with Jimmy. We're not talking about the total on that because I don't think I think the total is tied to sort of what we think of the side. Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City Chiefs, two-point favorites at home against the Buffalo Bills. And this line has dropped 97% of the money on the Buffalo Bills. 64% of the bets right now on the Kansas City Chiefs. You know you make me want to shout. two months ago i promised our listeners i wouldn't play the bill shout song until they won a playoff game so here we go jad you know what my deal is i've said it three years my rule of thumb in the playoffs is If Mahomes is playing any other quarterback than Tom Brady, I always bet Patrick Mahomes. It has worked out swimmingly for me. I think the only time I haven't covered with him was that fucking Browns game where he got hurt. Chad Henney came in. They won. I don't think they covered that. I'm trying to off the top of my head remember it, but I honestly think he's covered every single game I've ever bet on him in the playoffs, except when he plays against Tom Brady. He played against Tom Brady in the AFC Championship game. He lost to him. Played against Tom Brady in the Super Bowl. He lost to him. This ain't Tom Brady. It's Josh Allen. Josh Allen, do it, bro. Slay the beast. This is your second time around. It's really fucking hard to beat the same team twice in a year. That's why we see the divisional matchups. It's usually always split. Like that's just, even when the teams aren't good, they usually split divisional matchups because it's so hard to beat a team twice in a year. The bills, they built their entire team for this chiefs team. That's why I like, I've already talked to a couple of pros. They're all in on the bills. Like that, that not shocking at all, how much Chad just said all the money's coming on the bills. This is exactly what this bill team is built for. They lost to this chief team last year. They've been thinking about it all off season. That's why they smacked them when they played earlier this season, do it. If you believe in the bills, if you think this is the bills year, this is it. Like the bills win this game going into last, I would say last week, the only team I had Tennessee as an underdog against was the chiefs at home. I make the bills minus one. Now they play Tennessee. I will have the bills favorite. So this is it. Like the bills, they could be the best team of football right now. They have arguably the best offense, most complete defense. I mean, their team, their defense has been great all season. Yeah. you can say they played an easy conference and who'd they really play even against good teams. Their defense was really good. I just have to get it to this chiefs team. They've just been here so many times. Chad just said that number is down to two. I can't not take it. I can't not take this number under three. So I made this minus three. I'm taking the value. Chad, he might be on the bills, man, Mitchell, please don't hate me. It's just, it's just business. My friend. How could I hate you for that? I only had one note. My only note was the bill spent an entire off season preparing themselves to play the Chiefs in the playoffs. You've covered it already. They've designed every move to beat this team. That's exactly why they ran it up as much as they could in their last meeting. But it is very, very difficult to beat the same team, a quality opponent on the road twice in the same year. I think Buffalo will win. I bet my own money on that, but I'm still riding the high of last week, which is probably the worst thing that could have happened in terms of this game is spend a whole week of everyone telling you you are the perfect football team. Definitely not what Buffalo wants to hear So I really banking on the shame and anger of last season Still those fires still burning bright And you hit it on the head too That perfect game I would love if we could find something in BetLabs I'm definitely going to try to dive into it. Like, again, it's never happened before, so there's nothing to go off of that. But when's the last time a team played that flawless? And then the following week, just laid an egg. Because not that I remember that Bill was doing it before, but it's like, I feel like this happens in the playoffs where a team plays like that, where the Chiefs, they were pretty sloppy. I mean, they were down 7-0 at Pittsburgh. All of a sudden, Mahomes turned it on. It was 21-7. And it's like they needed that maybe. Maybe they need a little bit of hit in the mouth that woke them up where, like he just said, the Bills, hopefully they have that hunger because they're going to be feeling damn good all week. They literally played a flawless game. So I feel like we're getting a good number based off that, like the public perception of they just played a flawless game. So I'm interested to see what you got to do, Chad. You on the Chiefs? You on the Bills? The Chiefs have gotten better pretty much all season. and their offensive line has gotten better all season. Every single week, people are trying to explain why their offense hasn't been as explosive. Their offense was pretty fucking explosive this past week. That's one of the best defenses in football. Against like a pass rush. Not a great rush, not a great rush defense, but a pass rush that is as good as it gets, right? They were top 10 against the pass. They may have threw for 400 yards. Yeah, exactly. um you know who knows if they were holding some tricks in the bag for the playoffs and sort of waiting like you know in rocky when he's fighting right-handed and then he unleashes the left hand um or if it was just the way the matchups played out and mahomes was scrambling and so artistic uh in the pocket but they looked really good too and they got a run game when mckinnon i mean that guy yeah whenever you see a player with a number one fast yeah you just think he looks faster when they have the number one and he really does look fast as shit. At the end of the day, it comes down to this. Patrick Mahomes is a generational talent. He's been in the past two Super Bowls, a MVP quarterback. He's better than Josh Allen. He's playing at home and he's favored by less than a field goal. Like let's not overthink this, right? We had the same conversations last week about the Bengals and the Raiders. The Bengals are a better team, right? The Chiefs, Even if everything is even, the Chiefs should be favored by three at home. Now they're favored by two. I want the Bills to win. I do. I got a big futures ticket on the Bills I got a big futures ticket on the Packers I love to see the two of them meet in the Super Bowl together I will probably bet on the Chiefs if only to have a slight hedge on that futures ticket Yeah, Chiefs minus two. It's got to be. Yeah, and I'm right there with you. It's just, again, the numbers, luckily the numbers do back it up. But even if they kind of went against it, I probably would just go against my numbers because what you just said, It's like sometimes the numbers can't take into account how great Mahomes is. And we're going to get burned. Like, we'll lose games with Mahomes. Again, Brady, the greatest quarterback ever. What is it, nine Super Bowls he's been to, ten Super Bowls? It's like we've never seen anything like it before. The odds of Mahomes duplicating it are probably less than 2%. But it's like maybe I'll fade him on the road next week against Tennessee when I'm getting a dog and getting a good number with Tennessee. But this week, like Chad just said, at home, he just does not lose there unless it's Tom Brady. So I'm going to be taking Mahomes as well with that too. This is the kind of game where I do think it'll probably play against type. The total is really high, 54 and a half. I'm actually on that over. What? I know. And like statistically, I usually would go on the under. I just, these two offenses, I just can't see either quarterback giving a damn. what the scores they're just going to be throwing the ball so weather permitting i think stucky tweeted out it's like playoff total is this high or eight and one towards the under the only over that's ever hit in the playoffs with above this number was the chiefs versus the bills so i'm i'm just looking at two offenses that i love the oc of the bills i love andy reed and what he does with his offense i mean again the end of the first quarter was zero zero in that chiefs game against the Pittsburgh and went over by like two touchdowns or three touchdowns maybe like you just can't I just can't bet these unders in these Chiefs kind of game so I'll take an over in a matchup between two generational talents at quarterback all right well right now you and I are both leaning towards favorites Kansas City minus two Tennessee minus three and a half we're waiting to see what the wise guys do with the Bucks and the Rams and if the if we think it's a soft three and that the books will move it one way or the”
19-16 — Bengals won 19-16 at Tennessee (Divisional Round); Titans lost outright, so Titans -3.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“you can say they played an easy conference and who'd they really play even against good teams. Their defense was really good. I just have to get it to this chiefs team. They've just been here so many times. Chad just said that number is down to two. I can't not take it. I can't not take this number under three. So I made this minus three. I'm taking the value. Chad, he might be on the bills, man, Mitchell, please don't hate me. It's just, it's just business. My friend. How could I hate you for that? I only had one note. My only note was the bill spent an entire off season preparing themselves to play the Chiefs in the playoffs. You've covered it already. They've designed every move to beat”
36-42 — Chiefs beat Bills 42-36 in OT (Divisional Round); Chiefs margin +6 covers -2 (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, Chiefs minus two. It's got to be.”
36-42 — Chiefs beat Bills 42-36 in OT (Divisional Round); Chiefs margin +6 covers -2 (ESPN box score).
“This is the kind of game where I do think it'll probably play against type. The total is really high, 54 and a half. I'm actually on that over. What? I know. And like statistically, I usually would go on the under. I just, these two offenses, I just can't see either quarterback giving a damn. what the scores they're just going to be throwing the ball so weather permitting i think stucky”
36-42 — Chiefs beat Bills 42-36 in OT (Divisional Round); combined 78 clears the 54.5 total (ESPN box score).
“I was on the Bengals at five and a half. I would like permission to adjust that to four and a half since that's where the line is. Yeah, that's fair. You're on the 49ers plus three. I would say heading into the weekend, the bets that we currently feel best about, Niners plus three, Pats plus four, four and a half, the best number you can get. We like the Bengals at minus four and a half or five, the best number you can get. I think we like Kansas City minus 12 and a half.”
BUF 47, NE 17 — Bills beat Patriots 47-17; Patriots +4 lost by 30 (ESPN box score).
“Simon Says bet. Get it if you could at three and a half on Tuesday, but it's generally been sitting in three. So you probably didn't get it at three and a half. Nothing's changed for me. All the stats, all the trends, everything backs up what we said about the Niners the other day, which is, you know, against the, they've got the coaching advantage. They've got the line of scrimmage advantage. They've got the defensive advantage when it comes to stopping the run. All things to me, .9ers plus three. Terrifying though. You just read the stats, but all the money, all the bets coming on them. I really thought the public would be back in Dallas. Historically, Dallas is a public”
SF 23, DAL 17 — 49ers beat Cowboys 23-17; 49ers +3 covered by 6 (ESPN box score).
“D'Amico Ryan's or DC, he's been good. Like he's improved as the season's going along here. So, I do like the over. I'm just not putting that much on it. It's very possible that while we love the Bengals because we think the Raiders might be too much of a public dog, we could be walking into the public dog trap with the Niners. And like, I didn't know the numbers like that until you read it off. And that's that's scary. Again, you know what? Courage of our convictions. We like the Niners. We're going with the fucking Niners here. No, I mean, I've already betted so much that, yeah, there's no turning back. Like, I'm going to keep betting it as long as it's a three. But at this point in the season, you just got to trust your gut and kind of roll with it.”
SF 23, DAL 17 — 49ers beat Cowboys 23-17; 49ers +3 covered by 6 (ESPN box score).
“I'll tell you right now, our friends at FanDuel currently have this game at Bengals minus four and a half minus 114. I'd pay a little bit extra juice to get the four and a half because at the end of the day, It's just not a massive amount.”
CIN 26, LV 19 — Bengals beat Raiders 26-19; Bengals -4.5 covered by 2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I was on the Bengals at five and a half.”
CIN 26, LV 19 — Bengals beat Raiders 26-19; Bengals -4.5 covered by 2.5 (ESPN box score).
“So to me, that's my favorite under the day because I made this number 43, 44 and a half.”
BUF 47, NE 17 — Bills beat Patriots 47-17 (64 combined points); under 44.5 lost (ESPN box score).
“And I would also say Pat's bills under 44 and a half.”
BUF 47, NE 17 — Bills beat Patriots 47-17 (64 combined points); under 44.5 lost (ESPN box score).
“to bet these teasers that's a key number teasing it down from eight and a half to two and a half again we talk all the time three is a key number the books know what they doing they know they they letting people bet that so i shocked to hear you be so joe public on that one I on the Eagles and I actually on the over in this one I don let the wind I not letting that weather scare me off To me, both these teams have distinct advantages on offense. The Eagles know exactly what they are and what they want to do. Not enough people are going to talk about it. The matchup of Goddard versus the linebackers of this Bucs team, to me that's the difference of this entire game. Again, the Eagles are going to try to run it, everything like that, But the way you beat this Buccaneers team is you have to throw it to your tight end. You have to make it so they're not blitzing. They have to respect that middle of the field. And the Eagles, I've seen it time and time again. Since we got rid of Ertz, Goddard's been, I guess Devontae Smith's our best receiver, but Goddard's right there with him. This guy, every time we need a third down, Goddard's been there for this Eagles team. So I love it at eight and a half.”
TB 31, PHI 15 — Buccaneers beat Eagles 31-15; Eagles +8.5 lost by 16 (ESPN box score).
“Cowboys haven't played a good run team since, I don't know, early November. They are one of the worst run teams. They just haven't faced teams that can run the ball. So they've kind of gotten away with it. People that aren't really on that, maybe they are. Maybe people are looking at the exact numbers I'm looking at where it's like, this is an overinflated line. Dallas should not be minus three. The 49ers to me, they're just one of my favorite futures. At 20 to one, I like the value of getting on this 49ers team to make it to the Super Bowl. So I'm right there with you, Chad, nothing's changed here. I'm still on the 49ers team. They're under a great field for this total. I lean towards the over just because both these offenses can't put up so many”
49ers lost the NFC Championship Game to the Rams 20-17, so the 49ers +2000 NFC futures ticket lost (Wikipedia).
“I have an idea for the big balls bet of the week. Lay it on me. I think it should be the Kansas City Chiefs. Yeah? Yeah. This is when historically you want to bet on Mike Tomlin. It's a rah-rah Mike Tomlin spot. What? What? And the Chiefs have been inconsistent this year offensively. But the reason to me why it's a big balls bet of the week is because 64% of the money right now is coming in on the Steelers. It tells me that we're going to be alone on an island. We're with the public on this. This number has moved down. It's clear the wise guys are coming in on the Chiefs. I don't see it with the Steelers team. like if the Steelers defense holds the Chiefs to 14 points I think the Chiefs still might cover because I don't see Ben we've said this all season long Ben Roethlisberger's best play throw the ball up downfield hope that because the ball is so short because he can't throw it more than 20 yards his receiver comes back and he gets some kind of DPI that's their offense right now tell me how the Steelers are going to score. Again, as much as I would love to hate on Chad about that, Steelers didn't score a touchdown until the final two minutes, last time they played the Chiefs. They like Tomlin was down 30 points He made his starter stay in just to get a touchdown a meaningless touchdown at the end of that game So yeah that a fair point to make Again their receivers are so talented I can see them putting up some type of points. Like the Steelers arguably have a trio of the top five or top four best receivers in football. Again, Big Ben's horrible, but I could just see that working out for them, them getting some points. But the Chiefs matchup-wise, I just love the matchup for their offense going against this Pittsburgh defense. Pittsburgh, their strength has been a pass rush and against the run. Mahomes knows that. Like, the last time they played, he was getting out quick. Once the DNs got tired, once Watt got a little tired, then he would take his time. He would go long to the hill where he would take a middle shot to Kelsey. So, I'm right there with you, bud. I wish I could bet more on this with the Chiefs. The reason I'm just pausing on it is because of what you just said. I know a bunch of professional groups have come in on Pittsburgh. They have a different read than me. When I looked at this game, immediately I was thinking to myself, I'll take the Chiefs and the over in a blowout. Like the Chiefs will just be putting up a ton of points. But in fairness to them, what they're looking at is what you just said with Pittsburgh. Their defense, they are really good. They're really good against the pass, too, where they can rush the passer. We know how young this offensive line is for the Chiefs, even though they've been playing incredible this season. I think they're great as a top three offensive line and pro football focus. So I'll give them their props. The Chiefs have had one of the better offensive lines, especially with the pass. But that's what these guys are looking at. These pros are thinking themselves, I'm getting 12 and a half, 13 points at Pittsburgh. I'll take that number in a playoff matchup where historically double digit favorites at home and wild card round cover.”
KC 42, PIT 21 — Chiefs beat Steelers 42-21; Chiefs -12.5 covered by 8.5 (ESPN box score).
“You're on the 49ers plus three. I would say heading into the weekend, the bets that we currently feel best about, Niners plus three, Pats plus four, four and a half, the best number you can get. We like the Bengals at minus four and a half or five, the best number you can get. I think we like Kansas City minus 12 and a half. Kansas City first half too. They're minus seven. That's a good number.”
KC 42, PIT 21 — Chiefs led Steelers 21-0 at halftime en route to a 42-21 win; Chiefs first-half -7 covered easily (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to take the Bengals minus five and a half.”
CIN 26, LV 19 — Bengals beat Raiders 26-19; Bengals -5.5 covered by 1.5 (ESPN box score).
“My very first instinct with the Bengals is a five and a half point favorite. You fucking smash the Bengals.”
CIN 26, LV 19 — Bengals beat Raiders 26-19; Bengals -5.5 covered by 1.5 (ESPN box score).
“Patriots as four-point underdogs, that's going to be a foxhole.”
BUF 47, NE 17 — Bills beat Patriots 47-17; Patriots +4 lost by 30 (ESPN box score).
“San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys. This game is on Sunday at 430. Generally, like, it opened at three and a half. It got bet down to three. It's pretty much stayed there. It's a pros-Joes game. Professionals are going to be on the Niners. The public is going to be on the Cowboys. This is my Simon Says game. right when i saw this number i i love that three and a half still love it at three”
SF 23, DAL 17 — 49ers beat Cowboys 23-17; 49ers +3 covered by 6 (ESPN box score).
“It the best though It really is It was fun It gave me a reason to almost stay up for the whole game Not saying I did I just saying almost All right Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs Pittsburgh on the road 12 and a half point dogs It a pro Joe game right now. 70% of the money coming on the Steelers. Wow. I'm shocked by that. I'm on the Chiefs. I can't believe it, but I am. I made this line 14. I'm shocked it's come down to 12 and a half. That's fair. You know what? Now that I'm thinking about it, like what the Chiefs, they They barely got by against Denver. That's crazy that the pros are coming in on Pittsburgh. I get it. They're looking at their defense, but we're like, who the hell have they played? They just beat who? The Browns? That are nothing left. And then they beat the backup of the Ravens. What the fuck? That's wild. I can't believe that. So there's six games. I feel like this is making you think hard about whether or not this could be one of the five that we choose. Yeah. I mean, I've already bet the Chiefs, though. I'm like, that sucks. I got a shit number because I thought I was going to get bet up.”
KC 42, PIT 21 — Chiefs beat Steelers 42-21; Chiefs -12.5 covered by 8.5 (ESPN box score).
“The Packers 375. Chiefs 425. Bills 750. Bucks 750. Titans 850. Rams 10. Cowboys 12. Bengals 17. Then Cardinals. And I forgot the Steelers who are bringing up the rear. Hit that horn, babe. Let's dance. And like, if we're going with best value, what's your favorite value play for all those? Probably the Titans. My man look at us thinking so much alike It got to be Titans You know like the Titans are the number one seed but their odds are longer than the Chiefs and the Buccaneers right now So I'd probably put a nickel on the Titans. You know, Titans, Bucs, Super Bowl could be interesting.”
Titans lost the AFC Divisional round to the Bengals 19-16, and the Rams beat the Bengals 23-20 to win Super Bowl LVI, so the Titans +850 Super Bowl future lost (Wikipedia).
“I want to make sure we talk about the games that we talked about on Tuesday. talked about the Dolphins quite a bit. So real quick on the Dolphins, I want to make that our big balls bet of the week. Big balls bet of the week. Dolphins is a game that very few will be betting with us. And I touched on that last week. Now I'm looking at the action app and seeing how much money, all the bets, everything coming on the Patriots. This is truly no one's betting this Dolphins team. The fact that it's moved now to six and a half, The money and tickets have only gone up on the Patriots. More people have come in on the Patriots because they think they're getting a better number. The book knows what they're doing. They know what they're doing, Chad. They're laying a little trap here. So, again, the amount of pushback I got as well, it made me really like the Dolphins even more. The fact that it's reverse line moving, even though we're off no information other than professional money is coming on the Dolphins, that's the best. So, still love it at six and a half. Still think you're getting above a key number, which I talk about all the time. I think six is a key number. Still take that Dolphins at six and a half.”
MIA 33, NE 24 — Dolphins beat Patriots 33-24; Dolphins +6.5 covered by 2.5 (ESPN box score).
“So, yeah, I agree. I like the Washington football team here. Jags plus 15 and a half. So let me read you some of those stats that Stucky had on his podcast this morning because I thought they were really good and very specific about the Jags. Look, you and I talked about this. The Colts haven't won in Jacksonville in forever. That's my favorite stat, whatever it was, 2014 or 2015. them won. Yeah. I'm going to read some of the stats that I listened to on the Action Network podcast with Chris Rabon and Stucky talking about the Jags as big dogs against the Colts, because it was specific to this game. I mentioned a couple of them in the Texans, but it's very specific to this game. In addition to the Colts not having won in Jacksonville in like seven years, inflation on must win teams like the Colts in this spot. Bookmakers know the public is automatically assuming teams that have something to play for will come in and be more motivated than teams that don't have anything to play for. Since 2003, teams that are in a must-win spot are 16 and 26, 38% against the spread. Faves of more than a field goal, 10 and 22, 31% against the spread. If you need a bigger sample size, since 1980, these teams are 40% against the spread. The Texans obviously fit this spot as well. But this feels like... You're going to bet the Jags one last time. This might be your best bet. Yeah. And we've, we've seen the money coming in, the pro money coming in on the Jaguars. It's, is that the biggest pro versus Joe game on the board? No, not even close. Like that, that to me just felt like it'd be a pro game where I could see the money coming in on the Jaguars. I just can't see any tickets coming in on the Jaguars. It feels like one out of every 10 better would bet the Jags. Like that's how much more bets are going to be on the cold. So I'm right there with them. I feel like, We're getting three, four points of free points just because of what you just said, that everyone just is like, okay, the Colts need this game. They need it to make the playoffs. Let me put them in my 13-point teaser, do whatever, so that they just inflate this line all the way up to, what is it, 15, 15.5? That's way too many points. Like I talked last year, I think I said I made this game 11. I moved it to 12. There might be a couple starters out for this Jaguars team on defense. Still, too many points. If it's over two touchdowns, I have to take this with the Jaguars. I hate doing it, too.”
JAX 26, IND 11 — Jaguars beat Colts 26-11; Jaguars +15.5 covered by 0.5 (ESPN box score).
“Washington football team. That line has moved up. I think we liked it at six and a half. I'm now seeing it. I think seven. Still would take it at seven. I've seen some books do it. Seven and a half. Obviously we like the value much more at six and a half giants are my worst graded team. They have a backup quarterback playing in this game. Their head coach talked shit about Ron Rivera Ron Rivera team loves to play for him They've been motivated by him all year Again for a team that lost their starting quarterback Week one Or I don even think it was week one It might have been before the season Fitz went down that injury Pretty amazing what they done this year Washington I'm looking at two teams that one is completely quit on their head coach. They know the coach is gone. Washington, I know Rivera's going to be back. I know that this team is, they're bad, but they're not one of the worst five teams in football. So you're giving me still seven points against Jake Fromm and this Giants offense that, what they put up, negative 10 yards passing last week, something insane like that. I'm going to keep fading. I'm going to take a team that's the team has not quit yet come week 18. That'll be like one of my things for this final week. That's this is the biggest one. You're literally looking at a team that is straight quit. The Giants have quit. They have not played hard in three weeks, so nothing's changed. Still like Washington. Yeah, Joe Judge has clearly had a little bit of a meltdown this past week. He called out the Washington football team for fighting on the sidelines, refused to meet with the Washington media to sort of discuss it and answer questions about it. There's no doubt in my mind Ron Rivera is using this all to build motivation for one last stand for the Washington football team against a division rival and embarrass them a little bit.”
WSH 22, NYG 7 — Washington beat Giants 22-7; Washington -7 covered by 8 (ESPN box score).
“We like the Bills minus 16 and a half.”
BUF 27, NYJ 10 — Bills beat Jets 27-10; Bills -16.5 covered by 0.5 (ESPN box score).
“We like the Texans plus 10 and a half.”
TEN 28, HOU 25 — Titans beat Texans 28-25; Texans +10.5 covered by 7.5 (ESPN box score).
“The other one that we got to talk about, the Rams and the Niners. Tickets on the Niners, money on the Rams. As the week's gone along and the more we've heard about Jimmy, it's not going to be Jimmy. It does not look like Jimmy's going to be able to play. His injury seems like it's pretty serious. We re-watched that Houston game with Trey Lance. Shanahan, as much shit as I love to give the guy, we always talk about it. I do think he's one of the best offensive minds in football. They had three points in the first half. In the second half, he completely changed up what he was doing with this offense with Trey Lance. Trey Lance, my first thought was this kid's first initial reads would be to always pull it down and run. He was going through reads. He had literally really smart pocket awareness in that second half. taking long shots when you could take it whenever there's stuff underneath you would take that just intelligent very intelligent for what I was not again I thought Trey Lance was just gonna be one of these athletes that come in first read not there pulls it down runs it because he is a really gifted athlete he's not he's he's way smarter than I thought he was going to be but watching that tape it could be really bad for this 49ers team against the Rams the biggest thing I saw was that Houston team if you had a comparable quarterback and a receivers, you are going to pass all over this 49ers team. Their secondary is bad. So looking up the matchups, I looked on the defensive side for this Rams team going up against that front line of the 49ers. He's gonna have a lot of pressure. He didn't have any real pressure in his face that whole Houston game. No real pressure on him. That's going to change dramatically. So as much as I like him taking his time, making all of his reads, it's not going to be as easy as it was against Houston. I told you, I thought this line should be six. The fact that it's still, What is it? Moves up to four and a half now. A little bit. Yeah. We seen some books at five Still think you getting value on this Rams team I I thought coming in that Tennessee would be I mean 49ers would be more of a public team That's not that crazy to hear the public's on that, just because in a division matchup like this, people are looking at this Rams team. They're saying to themselves, Stafford hasn't played well in weeks. He really hasn't. If you go through what Stafford's done these last couple of weeks, he just has not played well. But this is a perfect spot for him to get right. This is one of the worst secondaries in all football. So at home, like we said, we're fading Trey Lance on the road, making his first road start. I love it that it's still under a touchdown. I do think you're still getting good value on this Rams team. Yeah, totally agree. I bet him at four. It's creeping back up. So you say get the value. I say get it now because you want to get the best of the number. And four is a key number.”
SF 27, LAR 24 — 49ers beat Rams 27-24 in OT; Rams -4 lost by 3 (ESPN box score).
“The Falcons plus four and a half, but you might be able to wait on that.”
NO 30, ATL 20 — Saints beat Falcons 30-20; Falcons +4.5 lost by 10 (ESPN box score).
“I did make a little bet on Denver. A pro group has come in. They bet Denver against the Chiefs. I hate betting Drew Locke. I know Teddy's out. They put him on injury reserve. So the season is done. So it is Drew Locke. I trust these guys. They're legit. Their reasoning behind betting Denver is sound. They think that this is a look ahead game for Kansas City. Kansas City is going to be overlooking Denver. They know all they got to do is win. Andy Reid is going to take his foot off the gas come the second half. Denver at home, you're getting 10 and a half. Take it, I guess. But I mean, for Saturdays, it goes, I'd say I bet more on the Cowboys for Saturday compared to this Denver team. But I just want to put it out there just in case people are wondering what we're doing Saturday. I have a little bet on Denver.”
KC 28, DEN 24 — Chiefs beat Broncos 28-24; Broncos +10.5 covered by 6.5 (ESPN box score).
“But I mean, for Saturdays, it goes, I'd say I bet more on the Cowboys for Saturday compared to this Denver team. But I just want to put it out there just in case people are wondering what we're doing Saturday. I have a little bet on Denver. I have much more bet on Dallas. Mike McCarthy has said that his starters will play. The Eagles really have nothing to play for. Their position is negligible in terms of ability to change in the playoffs. They got a ton of COVID. So it's really just going to be Dallas trying to, you know, stay sharp. And I can see that line moving. Like I could see you getting the seven now and by Saturday morning it up to eight eight or nine Yeah It going to be bet up by the public Cowboys are one of the most public teams Chad I had a bunch of people keep reaching out about this end of the year review that you and Matt Mitchell like to bring up”
DAL 51, PHI 26 — Cowboys beat Eagles 51-26; Cowboys -7 covered by 18 (ESPN box score).
“So to me, I'd bookend it with the Dolphins Atlanta, one of those two. Dolphins, to me, better value just because you're getting extra points with them at home. But love them both both home dogs divisional matchups we take that every time i love the falcons and the dolphins together did i tell you i got a new phone chad i'm excited for you they only had red luckily i have a philly sticker so that kind of helps out but i'm not a fan of red phones you're such a fucking john i heard the most philly conversation that day made me think of you this one guy i was You know what, this other guy, and the guy said, fuck yous, you fucking fucks. It's so good. The Dolphins Atlanta together is plus 821 on the action app.”
Parlay lost: Dolphins beat Patriots 33-24 (Dolphins ML won), but Saints beat Falcons 30-20 (Falcons ML lost) (ESPN box scores).
“Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There's only two games left, and you're basically going to say, hey, take the Panthers plus eight against the Buccaneers. Simon says. why would you do that love it i love this game so much i don't know i'm hearing from a couple little birdies that the bucks are gonna be sitting guys and resting guys but they're not gonna be trying this game and it's the rare opportunity to take a Carolina Panther team that no I don't know no one's gonna be betting this number I'm just grabbing it early now just in case the news does come out that the rumors are true that Tom's not playing a bunch of their starters aren't playing they they just gonna throw this game away before they get it ready for the playoff run So I think we getting a good number I already saw that Carolina is playing their starters They trying to win Their coach is an idiot Take the plus eight now. That's why I'm giving out what Simon says.”
TB 41, CAR 17 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 41-17; Panthers +8 lost by 24 (ESPN box score).
“That's why I want to give out Carolina and give out their money line.”
TB 41, CAR 17 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 41-17; Panthers moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“right now if i'm looking at this the only games that we think we really really like the bills minus 16 and a half and the falcons plus four and a half we're a wait and see on the browns we're a wait and see on the steelers we're leaning towards the texans we're leaning towards washington football team we're a wait and see on the vikings yeah i mean i told you i only made four bets out of 16 games well who the fuck were the bets on I mean, you're getting there, sweetheart. You're getting warmer. Well, they better be the Falcons and the fucking Bills. I bet Atlanta. Okay.”
NO 30, ATL 20 — Saints beat Falcons 30-20; Falcons +4.5 lost by 10 (ESPN box score).
“Taking Atlanta would be the spoiler. I'll take their money line.”
NO 30, ATL 20 — Saints beat Falcons 30-20; Falcons moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“But I just have to go by the simplest fact that it's Trey Lance on the road against, you know, a top 10 defense. I got to take the Rams in this position, especially if you're giving me a number like four. That's just a key number. So to me, if this was six, six and a half, I'd start thinking about 49ers, but it's still at the low four. I'll take the four of the Rams.”
SF 27, LAR 24 — 49ers beat Rams 27-24 in OT; Rams -4 lost by 3 (ESPN box score).
“I got to take the Rams in this position, especially if you're giving me a number like four. That's just a key number. So to me, if this was six, six and a half, I'd start thinking about 49ers, but it's still at the low four. I'll take the four of the Rams. Is this a Simon Says game? No. Again, you're going to hate, you're going to hate the game that I really liked this week. All right. All right. I like the Rams bet. That is one I will bet right away.”
SF 27, LAR 24 — 49ers beat Rams 27-24 in OT; Rams -4 lost by 3 (ESPN box score).
“So give me the dolphins, give me the dolphins money line.”
MIA 33, NE 24 — Dolphins beat Patriots 33-24; Dolphins moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“But I'll take Bills at minus 17.”
BUF 27, NYJ 10 — Bills beat Jets 27-10; Bills -17 pushed exactly (ESPN box score).
“Bookmakers just bank on public overreactions Everyone in Vegas loves this game You mentioned it You got calls from eight different groups that love this game Washington football team bang it Again, I try to tell people all the time. A lot of these groups are calling me because they want me to make bets for them in New Jersey. That's honestly why a lot of these guys reach out to me. There might be two books that take professional money in Vegas. New Jersey, it's easy to spread it out. You can get 1,000 down on 20 different books. That's a 20K bet instead of really popping up on these books radars, you're going to spread it out. So the reason a lot of these guys are calling me talking about Washington is just they're trying to get that four. That was the biggest thing. A lot of people reaching out because they wanted that plus four. So that's a good number by stucking them. I bet you it goes even higher in divisional matchups. But the biggest thing is just Washington has a great run defense up front, and we've seen it with Hurts. He's inconsistent. The public's going to keep coming in on this Eagles number. That should be a big warning sign to people that's already come back down. Again, some offshore books have this down to three. That's a huge, huge red flag to people. When 80% of the bets, 80% of the money is coming in on the Eagles, and the line has now moved the full point from four down to three, that's a big sign, a big warning sign not to be taking the Eagles. So as we sit here, if this line is three and a half in our contest, how do we not make it one of our five? I agree. I'm with you, man, 100%.”
PHI 20, WSH 16 — Philadelphia beat Washington 20-16, so Washington's 4-point loss busts the +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“We love the Vikings here. Big balls, bet of the week. Big balls, bet of the week. So much pushback from our followers. Oh my God. I get it. People hate betting Kirk in primetime. We know we have to take this number. It's so inflated. Can I just say one thing? I think those prime time, there are systems that matter, that have data sets that are huge. There are gimmicks. This feels like a fucking gimmick. It is glaring though. I got to look it up because people keep posting it. But I think it was like two and nine against the spread in prime time games. Something crazy like that. But it's too big of a number in a matchup. And especially with Green Bay is the public darling. We knew – I'm on some chalk this week. I'm not going to lie. I actually flipped from the Cardinals to the Cowboys. I'm on the Cowboys now. The more tape I've watched, the more numbers I've looked into. This one I haven't changed. If anything, I feel even better about my position on the Vikings. The fact that Dalvin Cook is now back for this Vikings team, his run style is perfect for a matchup against this Green Bay run defense. They hate running backs with speed and power that go up the middle. That's one of the worst things they're defending Green Bay this year. That exactly what Dalvin Cook does He is a man with speed and power So looking at this across the board Chad just talked about it It moves up to seven Grab that seven if you can I worried about by the time you hear this we be back down to six and a half which still is fine I still happy taking a six and a half Just a pro versus shows game Like Chad talked about it. It's a primetime game. Everyone, all their money line parlays, all their teasers, everything is going to end Sunday night tied to this game. We're getting two, three points of value just because of that. The bookmakers, they had to pump this lineup just to, you know, factor in all that money coming in on those money line parlays and teasers so as long as you're getting six and a half i still love this number why did you flip on the cardinals and the cowboys”
GB 37, MIN 10 — Green Bay beat Minnesota 37-10, so the Vikings' 27-point loss busts the +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Titans have not moved. They're at three and a half against the Dolphins. Everybody who's professional likes the Titans this week. yeah you saw it though you did see a little bit of movement it came down to three so some pro group did come in on miami they moved it then way more money came back in on tennessee and it went right back up it might have moved just for a couple hours and it was shot back up three and a half you you know more better than me like i don't i i know stucky hates miami i'm sure he's all over this tennessee game his his simple reason is just going to be what a lot of people are looking at It's like Miami hasn't beat anyone on this win streak. Who are they to you know be under six points against a Tennessee team that has been proven has been beating good teams while injured I mean they were beating teams while they had key guys out Now they getting a lot of these key guys back So yeah I know it your Scrooge roulette pick so you already love it You're already in on it. Tennessee, if you're getting under four, under five, that's a great number. You have to take it and just live with the results. This number should be six.”
TEN 34, MIA 3 — Tennessee beat Miami 34-3, a 31-point margin, covering the -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Oh, this line should be three. The Browns are a better team on paper. Maybe I'll just take the Browns here. No, when I made this line, I made a minus one for the Pittsburgh. I still think I'm getting four and a half points of value. I'll still take Pittsburgh. I know it's gonna be the public side. They're a public dog. Please don't talk to me about more victories. That'd be disrespectful to those guys in the room. maybe some pro group is coming on the Cleveland. That's why they've kept it this way. But I was positive by today it would be down to three. And the fact that it's still three and a half, little scary, little scary. Cause the bookmakers are not doing us any favors. They don't want to give us an extra hook for free. They want you to pay for that hook. They want to move to three and make some sucker pay minus one 25 to buy that hookup. So it is interesting. That's line hasn't moved, but nothing's changed. I'm still betting it. I've still bet it every day this week. Ben Roethlisberger's last home game.”
PIT 26, CLE 14 — Pittsburgh beat Cleveland 26-14, a 12-point margin, covering the +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“The Bengals were still at seven, seven and a half. I'd be all over it. It's not. It's down to five. The professionals, the public, everyone has come in and bet the Bengals down to this point. So nothing's changed here. I still love the Chiefs. I know I might be walking into or stepping in that the Chiefs are due for a letdown game. I feel like they had letdown games and they kind of gotten away with it because their defense has been that good for them So their offense to me is clicking into form They only getting better They have Travis Kelsey back this week They going to keep improving on what they been building So that defense with that offense against this Bengals team, this line should have been seven. The fact that it's moved so much just because of what the Bengals did last week, winning such a big game, putting up so many points against a beat up Ravens team, it still feels like we're getting free points here. So to me, you're getting this number under six. you have to take it every time you have to take the chiefs here all right i mean i'm i'm siding”
CIN 34, KC 31 — Cincinnati beat Kansas City 34-31, so the Chiefs lost outright, busting the -5 (ESPN box score).
“For this matchup everything you just said is true We take the Jets here The Buccaneers they a great team We know Tom Brady dominates rookies The Jets are coming off a big win But they at home And we're going against a Buccaneers team that, again, that game last week was more about Carolina. Carolina just could not get anything going. I think they put up, what, six points against this Buccaneers team that they've just lost Shaq Barrett now to that D-line. So the injuries keep mounting. I know Antonio Brown came back last week. He looked great for that Buccaneers team. He really helped carry that offense. But to me, at 15 points, whatever this might be, 13 and a half points, whatever you can get, you take the Jets here. It's too inflated of a line. So I don't know if this will be one of our five, but I bet this when I hit 14, I'm seated now back down to 13 and a half at some books. But some books have it up to 15. So I would chop around to this number. If you can get above a 14, I would take this number. Ugly, but right.”
TB 28, NYJ 24 — Tampa Bay beat the Jets 28-24, so New York's 4-point loss stays within the +14 (ESPN box score).
“Steelers, the Chiefs are five-point favorites on the road. My first instinct here, you bet the Bengals, five and a half right now. But is that a letdown spot? Are the Chiefs in a better position? Are they getting healthier? Are they really the dominant team now? It's tricky. I don't want to, am I out thinking myself? Yeah. So I'm right there with you. When I first saw this at seven and a half last week, I was like, wow, that's a great number to take that Bengals team at. And to me, I forget if you bet it with us, but the plus a thousand Bengals to win this division, it's minus 250 now. So you're looking for opportunities to hedge. You don't need to do it this week. It seems like it's going to come down to the Browns and the Bengals next week. So we'll deal with that next week, hedging that out. But for this week with the Bengals, I hate to do it, but I got to take the Chiefs. When I look at this matchup I love what Joe doing I love all the feel story everything about them right now But it late December and he just beat a backup quarterback on a banged Ravens team Now he's going against Mahomes and this Chiefs team that they've been here before. This is what we talked about early in the year. We could all bash and talk all the shit we want about the Chiefs. Mahomes has only ever lost to one quarterback in the playoffs, and that's Tom Brady. Okay? This man, if he gets to January, if he gets to February, I'm always going to back my homes unless he's going against Tom Brady. So looking at this matchup, this is a playoff football game. This is literally for the number one seat for this Chiefs team. Cannot see them let down here. Can see a big letdown spot from this Bengals team where they're looking ahead to next week. They know next week's the game they need to win. That's the game for the division. So I'm with you. First glance, I'm like, I like these points. I'm going to take these points. But the fact the pros have already bet it down, they move it across a key number. As long as it stays below six, I'll be taking the Chiefs.”
CIN 34, KC 31 — Cincinnati beat Kansas City 34-31, so the Chiefs lost outright, busting the -5 (ESPN box score).
“football team. The Eagles are flying high. They're three and a half point favorites on the road against a Washington football team whose play on the field and morale on the sideline is starting to reflect the dysfunction of the ownership. This team is a train wreck. That game on Sunday night was terrible. Another game I didn't watch. Then again, overreaction. Yep. Let's go, baby. Gotta bet. Washington football team, foxhole. Foxhole. We're the foxhole. Move your head off the beat. Let's climb down into the foxhole. Love it. I knew everyone was going to hate this one. That's why it's... Immediately as I saw this line, I was like, okay, this is probably going to be our foxhole bet because there might be only four of us getting down to this foxhole and fighting off the Germans here. It's a bad number for a bad team. You're never going to get the Eagles at a higher point in the season. I mean, if you hate this number, if you really do, just fade the Eagles first half. They've been one of the worst teams in the first half this season. So this is a number I bet early. It moved against me, moved from three and a half up to four. I bet it again. I'll be all over Washington this week. It's just simply a matchup and number-based kind of thing where the Eagles just had one of their biggest wins of the season. Now they're going on the road to play a team that just got blown out in a primetime game. We love this number every time. The only reason I'm not putting more money on it is just because of COVID stuff, but it feels like Washington football. teams had every player on their teams at COVID. So we should be good. So I'm betting it. I'm not going to say there's a hundred percent chances to be one of our five, but this is a game that”
PHI 20, WSH 16 — Philadelphia beat Washington 20-16, so Washington's 4-point loss busts the +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“You mentioned the Bears. They are hosting the Giants. The Giants are six and a half point dogs. This is a very weird game because the Bears are terrible. And I'm hoping that Justin Fields is on the shelf for the rest of the year. the Giants are terrible Mike Glennon doesn't really look like he belongs in the NFL uh he's at the other end of his career that Drew Locke is like neither of them look like they should be NFL quarterbacks and six and a half feels like a lot of points to be an underdog against a Bears team that just isn't very good I would agree with you in the sense that the Bears are I would have to look at my power rating sheet, but I believe I had them at number 28 or 27. They're one of my worst rated teams. The worst are the Giants. They are my lowest rated team right now in football. And it's simply because of the quarterback position. So I talked to a couple of professionals. They've come in on the Giants. They bet this number. I think it was at seven. They bet it down to six, six and a half of certain books. I will be on the other way. I love the Bears. I'm especially happy if this is Nick Foles. This is why I fucking hate Nagy and I can't wait for Nagy to be fired. How can he look his owner in the face and say, I started Andy Dalton over Nick Foles all season and those games Like in what world is Andy Dalton a better example or mentor for Justin Fields and Nick Foles would be Andy Dalton plays that game against the Seahawks there's zero chance he drives that field at the end of the game and scores that touchdown I mean he just the man isn't a winner he's like he is not a winner uh Nick Foles has proven time and time again he's a winner in clutch moments that whole playoff run he's just a big time quarterback So I like the Bears' momentum. Them coming home, I like everything about this. So the pros will be on the Giants. I'm going to be on the chalk at home with the Bears, as long as it's Nick Foles and not Andy Dolan. You sleep on your team too much, man. Your guy's defense is good. What is it? Is Roquan about to break the sacks record? Did he break the Bears' sacks record? Robert Quinn. Robert Quinn. 17 sacks. Something crazy like that. So I see the team playing for someone like him, and I see the team playing for a guy like Nick Foles, who he still believes he's a starter. That's why that game was so big for him last week. It was a kind of a prove it game for Nick showing these other teams. He still has. So to me, the giants have quit on their head coach. They've quit on their GM. I see a bears team. That's resilient. They don't care about Matt and I think they're playing for the guys inside that locker room. So I like these two teams going different directions right now. I like the arrow going up for the bears. And I like fading this giants team. I faded them last week. Yeah. That first half sucked. I was like, why the hell did I take the Eagles minus 10 when it was three, three, but then Jake from started throwing the ball. And then again, they don't have a quarterback. The Giants literally do not have a quarterback. So to me, as long as it stays under seven, I'll take this number.”
CHI 29, NYG 3 — Chicago beat the Giants 29-3, a 26-point margin, covering the -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“the vikings totally disappointed us speaking of what's that speak for yourself i was on the rams disappointed us in the fact that the the right number on that it should have been a touchdown a field goal game and everyone should have won their bets they should have everyone on the vikings at three and a half and the rams at two and a half they should have everyone should have won the vikings fucked it up six and a half point dogs against the packers feels like a good number though. I look at that and I'm not going to be overreactive to the Vikings at the end of the year. You mentioned the Packers and they're against the spread number this year. They are due for regression Obviously them and the Cowboys teams generally will be 500 or a little bit better or a little bit worse against the spread the packers and cowboys like combined or i don know like i think they lost six games total against the spread so and the packers you know this browns game was one of them but it feels like this is another spot where it could be a close game 100 the fact that we're the number one biggest podcast sports gambling podcast in the world i can't make this my simon says bet because I want to do it with the Vikings, but it's Kirk in prime time. We love this number. I mean, this is, you bet this every time. Divisional matchup this late in the season. These teams aren't that different. I know the record, you're looking on paper and go, well, the Green Bay is going to be the number one seed in the NFC. Vikings aren't going to make the playoffs. The Vikings were fucked from the get-go. We talked all preseason. That was the stinkiest win total all offseason. It was just sitting there at nine, nine and a half. Some books moved it back down to eight and a half. They were never going to hit that over. It felt like the fix was in coming into the year with this Vikings team. So to me, this is the typical everyone's off the Vikings. Everyone's going to be in on Green Bay. This number should be four, three and a half. We're getting three points. It could even go up to seven again. We'll get back at seven. That's even better. We love the Vikings here. It just sucks it's a primetime game. This is one o'clock in the afternoon in Green Bay. I'd be all in. This would be probably my biggest bet of the week. But because it's prime time, I got to remember it's Kirk Cousins in prime time. And historically, he always lets us down. So I had to bet this number. But just the fact that it's in prime time, I won't bet as much.”
GB 37, MIN 10 — Green Bay beat Minnesota 37-10, so the Vikings' 27-point loss busts the +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Give me Pittsburgh three and a half.”
PIT 26, CLE 14 — Pittsburgh beat Cleveland 26-14, a 12-point margin, covering the +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“going to take the Titans minus three and a half. That was my other option.”
TEN 34, MIA 3 — Tennessee beat Miami 34-3, a 31-point margin, covering the -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“So let's talk about the Bills. Plus 2.5 at the Pats. Still, I bet it, 2.5. Still like it. It's ugly. I think it's the right side.”
BUF 33, NE 21 — Buffalo beat New England 33-21, a 12-point margin, covering the +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“It's going to be a factor in a late December game. So I was wavering making this one of our five, but the more like I've looked at it, it feels like we kind of have to like it feels like the most balanced number this week but like again we not getting crazy value I want to get two points of value but the fact that it a two and a half three that again a key number So it makes me want to take that bills team. I have no issues with this pick. Love it. Love the bills in this spot.”
BUF 33, NE 21 — Buffalo beat New England 33-21, a 12-point margin, covering the +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“Let's talk about the Colts and the Cardinals. I loved the Cardinals at one and a half. Why don't I love them at one? Yeah, nothing's changed.”
IND 22, ARI 16 — Indianapolis beat Arizona 22-16, so the Cardinals lost outright by 6, busting the -1 (ESPN box score).
“Falcons and the Lions. The line was at seven before this past week. The look ahead line went down to four. Now back up to six. Six is as much of a key number as seven. So if you're getting it, you're not losing that much. if you don't get it at four because five is a dead number. So the Falcons beat bad teams. The Lions have no secondary. We don't know what's going on with Jared Goff. They're coming off a huge win. The Falcons coming off a huge loss. The Falcons at home. This feels like the right spot to invest in the Falcons, even at six. 100%. And again, we talked about that's why we like so much a five and a half because six is a key number. You're not losing much taking the six.”
ATL 20, DET 16 — Atlanta beat Detroit 20-16, a 4-point margin, short of the -6 Falcons needed to cover (ESPN box score).
“said, they beat up on bad teams. They've done it all year. We are 100% putting the Panthers plus 10 and a half against the Bucs. It's a foxhole bet. Everything is saying, take this good secondary against a quarterback who has struggled on the road,”
TB 32, CAR 6 — Tampa Bay routed Carolina 32-6, so the Panthers' 26-point loss busts the +10.5 (ESPN box score).
“Wise guys are loving the Bengals and you're kind of on the Ravens here. Yeah. Fuck those guys. We'll keep chasing that dream. Again this is not going to be in our contest because the Ravens has just been burning us never ending So I just going to take the value They play close games this is divisional matchup late in the year i told people in early december i take the dog i take the under 90 of these divisional games that's just what i'm going to do it's been working i mean we've already seen it since the calendar's turn it's been a lot of unders divisionally it's been a lot of dogs divisionally so i'm waiting especially to if i'm going to put more in it i kind of do want it to be Lamar again I love what this backup has done I watched the film he literally was staring down if it wasn't Andrews it was Hollywood Brown and that was it he would do two reads and then you'd take off so I love it I love his athleticism but I would just feel better with Lamar coming back so I'm taking the three now and hoping that Lamar comes back to really give you the value because”
CIN 41, BAL 21 — Cincinnati beat Baltimore 41-21, so the Ravens' 20-point loss busts the +3 (ESPN box score).
“I did better to three. The bets I've made so far, Buffalo plus two and a half, Carolina plus ten and a half, Miami plus three.”
MIA 20, NO 3 — Miami beat New Orleans 20-3, a 17-point margin, covering the +3 (ESPN box score).
“All right. Miami plus three at New Orleans. You liked it above one and a half or two. It's still at three. This to me absolutely is going to be in our top five, even though we don't like Monday night games, we're going to have to do it.”
MIA 20, NO 3 — Miami beat New Orleans 20-3, a 17-point margin, covering the +3 (ESPN box score).
“San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans. This can't be right. 49ers on the road, three and a half point favorites against the Titans. come on. I know this is like the Chargers all over again. Like, of course, we're supposed to take Tennessee here. Yeah, this is ridiculous. Probably one of the tougher teams in all football. They're just a bruising team and they dominate up front. And that's what's been huge for this 49ers team is they're one of the stronger teams on offensive line and D line. And that's how they dominate these teams. They impose their will. I hate it. I hate that we have to take Tennessee here. What we do. This is a classic. We're buying low in Tennessee. I make this line a pick. The fact you're getting three and a half points, it's crazy. It's the 49ers hype is as high as you can get. Atlanta gave away that game slash cover. They were, I believe, 0 for 16 inside the five-yard line. Again, let's process that. They got in there four times and came away with zero points inside the five-yard line. Woo! You can't really depend on those kind of things, especially with this Tennessee team. They just had arguably one of their worst games of the year. against Pittsburgh. That was a complete meltdown by them. Now they're coming home, short week, 49ers are feeling great. I don't know. Of course, we have to take Tennessee, but am I going to make this one of our five? I don't know, Chad, but I love Tennessee here. I have to take this number every time. Immediately, this is bright red siren, inflamed. Take this. This is crazy. The Titans This defense is so much better than we thought they were earlier in the year. The 49ers are a very physical team that have also been benefiting from playing some pretty bad defenses This is not a team that you can sort of make mistakes against The Titans are getting a little bit healthier at their skill positions People say I too low on the 49ers I get it They healthy They clicking on all the cylinders here But if you go by just the”
TEN 20, SF 17 — Tennessee beat San Francisco 20-17, a 3-point margin, covering the Titans +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Tell me why you think that. Well, actually, surprisingly, I love Arizona here. Colts team, it's inflated. If the Colts were plus three, plus three and a half, yeah, I'd be all over them. But the fact that it's moved down this number, the books are laying a trap. This feels incredibly trappy, just like the Patriots felt against this Colts. last week. Right now, your book, you have one and a half, which means you can tease this up to seven and a half. I just can't see why they'd be doing that. Same with the Patriots last week. It kind of felt like they knew people would be teasing these standalone games. And they're giving you a number to get you across a square number that like they know, like someone, especially me, if I see seven and a half, I love that number, the public even more so. So when I saw this line initially I immediately saw a trap. When looked at the numbers, I made this line minus three for the Cardinals. So I'm getting a point and a half for the Cardinals. I'll take the value, but I hate going against my Colts team because I don't know if you remember, this is like my all-in team of the season. So I'm just playing the position, the spots. The bookmakers had the Colts winning 10 wins before the season started and went all the way down to eight, seven and a half once Carson once got hurt to start the year they lose this game they win their next two they'll finish the year 10 and 7 right where the bookmakers had them this just feels like a scheduled boss for this colts team this kind of matchup arizona getting embarrassed against the lions i know matt mitchell wants us to fade fade hard uh kingsbury but can't can't do in this position um i'll either stay away i'll just take the cardinals cliff kingsbury all right well it's interesting because when i was first asking me the question and you said the Colts and then you said actually I love the Cardinals here this to me purely thinking about market logic was Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals”
IND 22, ARI 16 — Indianapolis beat Arizona 22-16, so the Cardinals lost by 6, busting the +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“100%. Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons. The Lions are, say, five and a half point underdogs right now. Oh, God. I hate taking Chuck. These lines have been so good to us, but we have to at this point. This line's kind of moved too far at this point. Jared Goff's on the COVID list I saw yesterday. Atlanta, they're bad. I'm not going to defend it anymore. People keep saying they beat a bunch of nobody teams. That's fair. This is a nobody team. Again, the lines, that was an incredible win last week. they're bad again they've been good against the spread they're just not a team that knows how to win so them coming off a big win like they just did we saw what happened when they went to go play denver they had a complete letdown the following week i guess we have to bank on it again but the fact that atlanta's coming off a bad loss a one that they gave away so many opportunities to score points i just can't see atlanta having such a bad week they got the veteran quarterback and Matt Ryan, who statistically has actually been really good this year. I know you don't think that because we saw him go over 16 inside the five yard line, but Matt's been good this year, especially on throws downfield. So against a team like Detroit, that their biggest weakness is that secondary. This is just a nice matchup for this Atlanta team. And I would take it, but again, it's hard to feel confident about it. You know what I mean, Chad? It's like, we just got burned so bad by Atlanta. I bet this one, I think Monday night, I'll bet it again a couple times this week, as long as it keeps moving my way. I just know the public's going to be coming”
ATL 20, DET 16 — Atlanta beat Detroit 20-16, a 4-point margin, short of the -5.5 Falcons needed to cover (ESPN box score).
“Yep. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers. This is interesting. The Panthers are 11 point home dogs to me when right when i saw this i knew this was gonna be one of my bets i'll do it as a foxhole let climb down into the foxhole there no no one else is gonna be joining us chad only a few people will bet this number but with all the injuries that the Buccaneers have had this plays right into the strength of this Carolina team Carolina has a really good secondary Now all I have to do is double AB, double Gronk. They don't have four net. They got Ronald Jones in that backfield. Godwin's out for the season. No one's really sure if Evan's going to play in this game. I would love to take Brady in this bounce-back position, but the fact that this line was 6.5-7, and now it's ballooned all the way up to 11, just because, again, Carolina didn't have a kicker in that game against Buffalo. They would have covered that number if they had a kicker. They had plenty of opportunities to cover that number, and they simply couldn't because they had to go for it on fourth down. I think we're going to get value here. If they would have covered last week Carolina, I can see this number being eight, maybe eight and a half, just because of teasers trying to keep Tampa Bay out of that value zone. Got no doubt Tampa will bounce back here. That's just too many points for such a banged-up Tampa team. So if you're a fan of this show and you bet these ugly games with us, you have to bet this one. This is an ugly number. It's divisional. They're at home. You have to take this number. If you're listening to this show and you don't bet this game and you like to bet, if you're deciding on Sunday, I'm going to put some money on NFL football, and this isn't a game you bet, then you've learned nothing. Let me give you some context. Right now, 82% of the bets are coming in on the Bucs, nearly 50% of the money coming in on the Panthers. This is going to be the pro Joe game of the week. Overvalued, undervalued, home dog of more than a touchdown. 80% of the bets coming in on the road favorite. All of these things, signals in the noise for the underdog. 100%. Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets.”
TB 32, CAR 6 — Tampa Bay routed Carolina 32-6, so the Panthers' 26-point loss busts the +11 (ESPN box score).
“so the Chargers break our heart they strike a lightning bolt through the core of our beings talk about emotional they're on the road now against the Texans nine and a half point uh favorites I'd wait on it it's one of those games I just wait you'll bet you'll hopefully you'll be able to get a 10 or something with Houston but Chargers team they usually beat up on these bad team. So I'm a little scared taking Houston team off a win, but I've seen it time and time again, this Houston team plays, they play well at home and we've seen Davis Mills say what you want about them. He might've been the second or third best rookie this season. I mean, the kid is again, he's only beating the Jaguars. I get that. He's not, that's nothing to really ho-hum about, but a lot of these games, he keeps them in close. He makes big throws. So I don't know. I feel like the value right now is technically on the chargers because underneath the key number of 10, but I just don't feel comfortable taking that that big of a number. So I'd probably wait and hopefully take Houston. Here, I agree with you. I think Texan is going to be the right side when it all comes down to it and the picks are coming in on the chargers. But if we're going to be willing to take the Panthers in similar situations against a much better team in the Bucs, I can't not take the Texans who I think have shown the ability to keep these games close. And like you said with davis mills performed much better than we expected against a charger scene that is just doing consistent and i think like you talk about emotion it's hard to come back from what they lost on thursday it isn't it isn't though they didn't think they're in the wrong they thought they did everything right so to me they're probably just thinking you know that's what we do that's how why we are where we are this year so i don't see them affecting that much but everything you said is true if you're willing to take carolina you kind of have to take the texans for the same exact reason. It's just way too big of a number for a team that doesn't deserve all that respect.”
HOU 41, LAC 29 — Houston beat the Chargers 41-29, a 12-point margin, covering the +9.5 (ESPN box score).
“Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots The Bills anywhere from one and a half to two and a half point dogs against the Patriots on the road Is this the week my friend where you buy into Mac Jones Again, I would love to keep crushing Mac Jones because Patriots fans are like the worst fan base in the world. But he's good, man. Like that was unbelievable what he did in that Colts matchup. Like everything I thought was going to happen did happen. He was looked like a rookie. he he got dominated uh scheme wise he just could not figure out that Colts defense and then he figured it out and he was very cool comic collective even the fact that he was getting punched in the mouth on multiple plays like he was literally getting hit popping right back up making big throws I fucking hate it man it's like crazy the Patriots go from Tom Brady to fucking Mac Jones it honestly really pisses me off but he's he's by far the best rookie like I can't there's no denying it this kid is tough as shit he's smart and he makes big throws and like That to me is one of the most important things in football. It's like, can you get in the mouth, throw a bad pick, then come out, throw a touchdown. That's how you know you can be in this league. You just get over it, move on to the next play. What the fuck? This number is too much. It's about to be plus three. What are we doing here? I have to take the bills. I have to put bills in teasers. I don't know. To me, this is like the bills, not Super Bowl, but this is what they've been thinking about for two weeks. They just want to get back at this Patriots team. so bad. They got embarrassed at home. It's, it's scaring me that it's moving this much. Cause that means a lot of professional money's coming on the Patriots and they obviously have a read on this, but the few games this week where it's a no brainer tweezer, it's this bill's number, this, this number great for teasing. You can tease it up to eight and a half right now. If you have a two and a half line of your book. I like this bill's number a lot, especially if it reaches three. What, what did you power rate it at? Pick. I just, I honestly didn't know what to really do with it. Like I gave a little bit of a home field advantage to this Patriots team.”
BUF 33, NE 21 — Buffalo beat New England 33-21, a 12-point margin, covering the +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“This will be by far one of my favorite unders of the week. I love this under so much. I always bet the unders anyway with the Chiefs at home, but this Chiefs defense, again, that Chargers game, the Chargers do whatever they want. They're going up and down the field. That was an indoor game in a controlled environment. This Chiefs team outdoors has just, for some reason, really held offenses down. So to me, this is a nice spot to take an under and a favor, which is rare. Usually I like taking the dog in an under position, but to me, that's such a big total, a big spread. What is it? I think I have to check. I think it was 48, 14 and a half. 10 points is not worth as much when it, if it was 40, maybe I'd be leaning more towards Pittsburgh, but there's enough wiggle room there that I like this chiefs in this position. I am shocked. That's a big, big number for a team that has a really good defense in the Steelers. And I think the chiefs are overrated, but yeah, I mean, the chiefs don't cover numbers like this. It goes against everything we've said all year about the chiefs. It's going to burn me but I made the number 12 and a half. It's 10. I think I'm getting two and a half points of value. No excuses. No explanation. Total on this game right now is 40 and a half.”
KC 36, PIT 10 — Kansas City beat Pittsburgh 36-10, a combined 46 points, busting the under 40.5 (ESPN box score).
“Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints. Miami is a three-point underdog. Dude, dude, give me the fucking Dolphins here. Love them. Love them. Love right there with you. Love this number. I took it at three and a half. The fact that the money and the tickets are coming in on the Saints and the numbers move down to three, that's best case scenario. but it means other pro groups have hit Miami as well. So love this number. As long as it stays above one and a half, two, which again, I talk all the time, two is a key number. I love Miami and I can see this being one of our five This makes no sense to me No it an overreaction to a Saints team that put up nine points Yeah that exactly what it is We got an interesting little lineup coming on here”
MIA 20, NO 3 — Miami beat New Orleans 20-3, a 17-point margin, covering the +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“them again i agree these teams are both a pass for me right now pittsburgh steelers at kansas City Chiefs. The Steelers are now 10 point underdogs. Fire away on the Chiefs, baby. Interesting. I know. I knew that you would think I would be on Pittsburgh, but I'm not.”
KC 36, PIT 10 — Kansas City beat Pittsburgh 36-10, a 26-point margin, covering the -10 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to talk about this bowl game. Like I'm going to the Outback Bowl. I've already got my number in on the underdog Arkansas. And I've already got my number in on the money line on them. 25% of what I bet on them full game.”
ARK 24, PSU 10 — Arkansas beat Penn State 24-10 in the 2022 Outback Bowl on Jan 1, 2022; Arkansas won outright on the moneyline (Wikipedia recap of the game).
“and it's Old Dominion plus nine.”
TLSA 30, ODU 17 — Tulsa beat Old Dominion 30-17 in the Myrtle Beach Bowl; Old Dominion lost by 13, busting the +9 spread (ESPN).
“we're definitely doing the chargers plus three and a half.”
KC 34, LAC 28 — Chiefs beat Chargers 34-28 in OT; Chargers lost by 6, busting the +3.5 spread (ESPN).
“because of who they've played. This line opened at one. It's now up to two and a half, even though all the tickets are coming in on the Patriots I struggling to see what the wise guy buddies of yours are seeing there So when I sent in my big bet on the Chargers I was just sending the Colts I wanted to make that one of the big bets, and I got rejected. So immediately I got pushed back. Yeah, from my own group. Again, I get a lot of shit talking about my lack of respect for the Patriots all the time by guys I work with. And it's not like they're Bostonians. They're just like, you don't get it with Bill. You don't get it. And it's like, I fucking get it, guy. I get it. It's just I'm trying to fade a rookie quarterback here and he keeps biting me in the ass because he's playing out of this world. But like you just said on paper, I believe the Patriots give the most explosive runs all season. We've seen it with this Colts team. Taylor's one of the most explosive runners in all football. He, I believe he leads the league and it's not even close of broken tackles in yards after contact. That's the perfect setup for this Patriots team. And again, Patriots have been great against the pass and the rush. Like, but against the run, they leave big holes up that middle because that kind of style where they're kind of coming off really heavy off the end. So, like, you just touched on it. The running thing is a big deal to me. And it's also a big deal to me. I told you just going against Mac on the road as a rookie. I'm getting under three points with a home team here. The Browns burned us last week with it. That was one of those that we talked about why two and a half has become so important. These missed extra points, little things like that. It can't happen again. That's just, we can't just let that dictate it. I still think we're getting a good number. It's under three. I still believe three is a key number. So to me, two and a half, that's all a Matic play. I feel really strongly about this one.”
IND 27, NE 17 — Colts beat Patriots 27-17; Indianapolis' 10-point margin covers -2.5 (ESPN).
“Like this line to me should have been minus one to Pittsburgh, just giving them the respect at home. The fact that we were getting two, still at one and a half in most books, love the value. The biggest determining factor in this game is going to be defenses. We've seen Tennessee have certain games where they really dominated some teams. Like again, that Chiefs game, Chiefs scored what, three points against them? I could say that says more about the Chiefs team, but I went back and watched that film. Tennessee, they got playmakers. They got guys that make plays, but they're also stupid. So that's what we're looking for. We're looking for a team that's young, inconsistent, to make mistakes against a veteran quarterback in Roethlisberger and all the weapons he has around them. And like you just touched on, Tomlin at home as a dog, coming off a loss as well. I know that really, that's a big trend too with Tomlin as a dog coming off a loss at home. I wonder what Mike Tomlin is going to say about that. Bring your A game today. You ain't new to this no more now. You know what I mean? My kids want to have a good Christmas. We have to do it. Even if we lose this bet, everything we're doing, all the numbers, everything points to you have to kind of make this bet. So it is one of those I had a little bit of pause because I liked it so much coming in. The fact that I got reinsurance from other pros, it makes me love it even more. So I'll definitely be on this Pittsburgh team.”
PIT 19, TEN 13 — Steelers beat Titans 19-13; Pittsburgh won outright, covering +1.5 (ESPN).
“We love the Broncos at minus two and a half.”
CIN 15, DEN 10 — Bengals beat Broncos 15-10; Denver lost outright, busting the -2.5 spread (ESPN).
“I'm taking the Bills when they AFC East and I'm going to be taking the Colts on the spot.”
The Bills finished 11-6 and clinched the AFC East division in 2021 (ESPN standings).
“Oh, yeah. Because we took that bye week, because we went five and oh, the top people averaged one and four last week. So we actually made up ground on that bye week. It was a good bye week by us. We're so good at this. Search around. I think FanDuel is up to three and a half at this point for this line with this Chargers team. Everyone in their grandmothers are going to be betting the Chiefs. We will happily take this number. We'll most likely take the under as well. As soon as it hit four and multiple books, I bet it. Drove out to Philly. I had my runner in AC, hit a couple books. We'll see. I might take a little road trip if I can't get enough money down, down to Maryland or something to get more money on this game because I just love that number. at plus four this Chargers team matches up very well with this Chiefs defense and offense the biggest thing I'm waiting on right now is what's going on with COVID all these teams are having COVID issues this is like a theme you see this week I not gonna be getting as much money down as I usually do because early on in the week because of COVID stuff we seen the NBA huge spike right now of COVID cases NFL had their biggest weekend of COVID cases the entire season. It's only getting worse. Like we already have the Browns having an outbreak this morning and a couple other teams. So between these different outbreaks and how we know this new variance is super spreader, I'm just not going to be betting a ton early in the week like I usually do. So unless you have the money to buy that positions, I wouldn't either. I'd keep doing what the public Lugia does, which is wait Saturday night, Sunday morning, make your bets.”
KC 34, LAC 28 — Chiefs beat Chargers 34-28 in OT; Chargers lost by 6, busting the +4 spread (ESPN).
“this game's really interesting the colts are now two and a half point favorites i've seen crazy numbers for this line opening some places this line open post weekend so not the look ahead line but post weekend colts minus one and it's been bet up two and a half foxhole Let's hop on in. Foxhole. Let's climb down into the foxhole. Fading Mac Jones again. Yeah, shocker. Mac Jones off of Biowe. Love everything about this match for the Colts team. They're a dominant run team playing against a weaker run defense. Inside, we've seen it with this Patriots team. They're better outside on the grass. They're not as good inside when you're playing against fast teams. I loved this number when it was at one. Now it's two and a half. Still think you're getting a fair number. Once it hits three and a half, maybe I start looking at the Patriots. But the way the numbers are going right now, the public's coming in heavy on the Patriots. I just don't know if the books will get up there. Maybe enough professional money will come on the Colts and they'll bet it up. But I've been betting this Colts team all year. I've lost one of my bigger bets of the year on them in this exact situation, but I have to keep doing it. You're having a really, really low bar on the Colts team. Everyone's looking at, I mean, again, I feel like 90% of the media is Boston fans, but it's never ending talk about how good this Boston team is, how good new England is, how the Patriots first Buccaneers Superbowl is a lock. They're the number one seed right now. I just don't, I think their frauds is the number one seed. I just don't buy this Patriots team. And I, maybe, maybe this is the game where I'll start giving them due credit. Cause they didn't earn in that, that Bill's game. They had a drop in the ends and the bill should have won that game. This here is as playoff a playoff matchup as you can get. This Colts team is a playoff team. To me, they're a top four team in the AFC. Let's see it. You're on the road with Mac. You can't hide him in this game. You're going to need him to make throws in this matchup. So as long as I'm getting under three with this home team and the Colts, I love this number.”
IND 27, NE 17 — Colts beat Patriots 27-17; Indianapolis' 10-point margin covers -2.5 (ESPN).
“The Washington football team visiting the Philadelphia Eagles, another pros-joes game with the majority of bets coming in on the Washington football team. the majority of the money coming in on the Eagles as four and a half point favorites right now. Love the Eagles. Rare time I'm taking a favorite, taking the chalk. But what I've read is this team has been hit by COVID. Washington football team has now is down three starters off their D-line, off COVID-related issues. We know what the Eagles want to do. They want to run the ball and control that front. Eagles whole offensive line is healthy coming off a bye week. This is a disaster matchup for this Washington football team. It really is. So I'm looking at it. I don't really care if it's Minshew or Hurts. It's kind of irrelevant to me at this point. I get why Eagles fans are going crazy for Minshew, but watching his all 22, rewatching that game, kid has so many bad habits. I still rather have Hurts as the quarterback. I feel safer with him, but I'm probably only going to downgrade it, maybe a point, point and a half between the quarterbacks. I don't think there's that much of a difference between Minshew or Hurts. So just looking at this number, as long as it stays under six, I love the Eagles in this matchup. Cowboys on the road at the Giants, who we have backed with faith and loyalty the past few weeks as big, big dogs.”
PHI 27, WSH 17 — Eagles beat Washington 27-17; Philadelphia's 10-point margin covers -4.5 (ESPN).
“Take Atlanta money line.”
SF 31, ATL 13 — 49ers beat Falcons 31-13; Atlanta lost outright on the moneyline (ESPN).
“the Seahawks visiting their touchdown favorites? This would be the exact spot in which you fade the Rams. They are coming off a huge win interdivision against a team that was number one quarterback looking good. Classic letdown spot against a division rival. Needle on the head. So it's such a classic letdown spot. Divisional matchup. We're getting seven points yeah Seahawks are terrible Russell Wilson hasn't looked right since he's come back from the hand surgery last two weeks though he hasn't been what he was the weeks before that he's kind of gotten back down to his rhythm he's not playing as scared and the run game we've seen it with Rashard Penny's was huge last week for me I believe two rushing touchdowns yeah when they get a run game going and he can rust can play off that play action that's that's the key to that team we've seen it with the Seahawks so like you just said that's seven I mean I wish I could make another Simon says, but I'd grab that now because I just can't see it last. And this is one of these numbers I could see dropping to six and a half in most books just because professionals are going to take that number. This is simply inflatable with what you just said. This Rams team looks so dominant against the Cardinals team. I do think the Rams are good. Do I think their seven-point favorite good against a divisional foe? Not at all. I made this line four and a half. So to me, you're getting two and a half, two points of value. I would take the number of the Seahawks right now. You know what, Simon? You're on the logo. If you say, we want to do a second Simon Says bet, we can do it. There's no rules. So is it a Simon Says part two? No, no. We're only going to do one a week.”
LAR 20, SEA 10 — Rams beat Seahawks 20-10; Seattle lost by 10, busting the +7 spread (ESPN).
“points now all right well if if the browns are getting that much professional love then it's one that we have to consider for our top five. We've clearly just talked about it. So I don't think there's anything more that we have to say about it. Yeah, we'll just put an icing on it where if you can get the minus two and a half, just take it now.”
24-22 — Browns beat Ravens 24-22; Browns win by 2, busting -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“One game I know we can count on. One game. Very interesting. Washington football team. Was it four? Now at four and a half. We love that.”
20-27 — Cowboys beat Washington 27-20; Washington busts +4.5 (ESPN box score).
“to a sports book what was that Tuesday night we got dinner after we got down I bet again on the Giants but on their money line”
21-37 — Chargers beat Giants 37-21; Giants moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“really bad teams for me I'm either taking the Saints or staying away it's a rare time I'm gonna take road chalk and take the favorite but this just feels like the pros are stepping into a trap here taking this Jets team. It's a little bit like they saw Zach Wilson play a great half against that Eagles team. They're like, you know what? Maybe this kid isn't as bad as he looked. Without really realizing that second half, once the teams adjusted and schemed against him, he could not do a single thing. So the Saints, to me, that's one of the better coaching staffs in football. They've been reeling. They haven't won in weeks. This feels like a Sean Payne special where he just dominates a bad team. That is the all opposite of what we've talked about on Tuesday. Yeah. Yeah, definitely one of those where I was waiting on the injury news, and I felt like I liked the Jets coming into it. But if they're getting Kamara back, they're getting their own line back. To me, this is a no-brainer bet taking that chalk with the favorite here in the Saints. Even at five and a half, do you wait? No, to me, because the six is such a key number now. I took the five and a half.”
30-9 — Saints beat Jets 30-9; Saints cover -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“But I personally will be betting Houston. [20:52] I'll take that trend that teams just lose the following week after playing the 49ers, [20:56] and I'll bet their money line.”
13-33 — Seahawks beat Texans 33-13; Texans moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“So let's start off with, it is gross this week. ATL, Atlanta Falcons. That nine's moved down from plus three. You're not getting any great value anymore in the number. It's a public dog. We don't care. We're throwing their money line in last week after a bad loss. Them, Washington. I won't make people put Detroit in because we don't know what's going on with the flu. I'm seeing that line all up to plus 10 now. Detroit. That's, God, I want to take that money line so bad. But if we don't know who they're, if they're going to have any starters, if we don't know if their offense lines will be healthy, I can't make you bet that on Thursday. But Sunday, that might be one of those I throw in with Detroit if they're healthy. Yeah, we have Atlanta right now. We have Washington football team. We're going to throw the Giants in there. Wait and see if the Bengals become a big plus number. We're going to put that in there as well. We'll get Bengals as a home dog. I know the Joe Burrow thing, but at that point, you're getting good value there. I don't know when I would take Jimmy G as a big road favorite. So you can get plus 110. I really like that with this Bengals team. Let's throw the bills in there. We just talked about it. The Bucs are on the most public sides this week. You want to go against the public. We talk about it all the time. When there's a team that's especially someone that – we talk all the time. The public does stupid shit. The dumbest thing they do is they pick one team and they'll make them in all their parlays, all their teasers. That's what the Bucs feel like this week. It feels like everyone's going to throw them in all their bets. So that's another one I like. So that's the fourth one. Our final one. Chad just talked about it. He doesn't love it. It's the Rams. You're giving me a plus number divisional matchup. This game is going to be a coin flip. It'll be fun to end the week with our Moneyline Parlay on a Monday. So that's going to be the first time we're doing it. I like throwing that the end of the week Rams team in there.”
Round-robin moneyline parlay busts: Falcons beat Panthers 29-21; Washington lost 20-27 to Cowboys; Giants lost 21-37 to Chargers; Bengals lost 23-26 (OT) to 49ers; Bills lost 27-33 (OT) to Buccaneers; Rams beat Cardinals 30-23 (ESPN box scores).
“this is a bet I always make I always bet the under It doesn matter if they hit the over five [7:36] straight years. I'm just going to keep riding this trend.”
NAVY 17, ARMY 13 — Navy beat Army 17-13; combined 30 points is well under the 36 total (ESPN).
“I played 14 on Cincinnati. I think that number is too high as well.”
ALA 27, CIN 6 — Alabama beat Cincinnati 27-6 in the Cotton Bowl CFP semifinal; Cincinnati lost by 21, busting the +14 spread (ESPN).
“They're going to need some flukes to win the game, but I think two touchdowns is too much. I think this line should be closer to 10. When I'm looking at Cincinnati-Bama, my biggest thing when I look at this game, and at 14, I'm going to take Bama minus 14 for a couple reasons. Cincinnati, I agree. Stucky, Sauce Gardner is one of the most top corners in the country. I don't think he's seen Jamison, though. And I'm wondering and assuming he's probably going to follow him around, especially now that Mechie's out. The biggest thing that having Mechie out hurts Bama is now they can bracket Jameson Williams a whole heck of a lot easier without having to worry about getting their pants pulled down on the back end. You can only bracket so many people. But the difference to me is and will always be up front and at the tight end position. You know, it's a game of matchups. It'll always be a game of matchups. You look at Latu, a guy that I think has snuck under the radar this year, showed up big against Miami. He's made some big plays, kind of disappeared in the middle of the year. Saw him a little bit against Auburn, especially in the overtime. But his blocking has gotten so much better throughout the year. Billingsley is a matchup problem. I mean, a guy that's over six foot four, 215 pounds, they can put outside and go win the jump ball. But I love the inside and I love the seam. You know, Cincinnati's pretty good in the back end. You know, I would say when you look at them and Georgia from a draft standpoint, Sauce is obviously going to be the first guy that goes. But I think depth wise Georgia has them there And I don think Cincinnati seen anything like Alabama I mean they struggled with Navy You struggle with Tulsa and with game day there But the game always comes down to up front for me And I don't think Cincinnati is going to be able to get pressure on Bryce Young. And when they do, I don't think they'll be able to get them down.”
ALA 27, CIN 6 — Alabama beat Cincinnati 27-6 in the Cotton Bowl CFP semifinal; Alabama's 21-point margin covers -14 (ESPN).
“we love Minnesota this position. So I'll be betting it. Maybe we'll change my mood Thursday morning because I just can't even think about putting the Vikings in right now. But we'll be on it, especially if it's at minus three. That's a great number to take with this Minnesota team that we saw.”
36-28 — Vikings beat Steelers 36-28; Vikings cover -3 (ESPN box score).
“Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs. Chiefs are nine point favorites here. This is a pros Joe's game right now. Right now. I think I love the Raiders here. I don't nothing. You know, when we went into the Broncos Chiefs game, we were saying to ourselves, the Chiefs can't cover big numbers. there's nothing from that game that makes me think they can like 22 to nine that that score is not reflective of what i would look at in the box score and that's what you have to do as a better you have to look beyond the final score to me this still feels like a raiders play yeah every little thing had to go right for the chiefs cover that number they had the pick six they had the 20 play 11 minute drive by denver for zero points which i think someone posted this first time it happened since 2015. Nothing's going to change here. We'll keep even if the public's riding again, we'll take the public dog and we'll take Las Vegas Raiders here.”
9-48 — Chiefs beat Raiders 48-9; Raiders bust +9 (ESPN box score).
“[19:24] So this is one of these games where I'll be on the plus four.”
20-27 — Cowboys beat Washington 27-20; Washington busts +4 (ESPN box score).
“So this is one of these games where I'll be on the plus four. [19:26] I'll be on the money line. [19:27] I'll be back in this Washington team.”
20-27 — Cowboys beat Washington 27-20; Washington moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“Got to bet on the bounce back this week on the road 10 and a half points against a Chargers team that we think they good We think they overvalued of course like them letting the Cincinnati Bengals come back That's this Chargers team. They just don't have I don't know how to describe it. They don't have the coaching yet, maybe or whatever it is. They're just not they're just not built yet to be a 10 point favorite team. They're not one of these top tier teams in the whole NFL. So we'll take the Giants. We'll just wait and see if we can get even better number.”
21-37 — Chargers beat Giants 37-21; Giants bust +10.5 (ESPN box score).
“So sitting here at minus three, I'll take Tampa.”
27-33 — Buccaneers beat Bills 33-27 in OT; Buccaneers cover -3 (ESPN box score).
“this has to be Simon says Simon says take the Cardinals right now the Cardinals are two and a half point favorites no Simon says take the Rams oh my goodness yeah oh my goodness my head is spinning I can't believe you're saying that everyone hates this bet a couple pros I talked they hit this number right away when it touched three for a little while it's back down to two and a half at most books we love taking the rams in this position the cardinals already beat up and dominated this rams team revenge factor everything give me give me the rams here um matthew stafford he horrible against teams above 500 Like absolutely terrible Break those demons Matthew Stafford Get us this cover and win The public is going to be coming in very, very hard on this Arizona team. Everyone's teasers, money line bets, everything's going to be tied to this Arizona team on Monday night. We got to do it. We got to take the Rams in this position. So, yeah, this will be my Simon Says bet. My only caveat is wait to get the three. I do love the two and a half.”
30-23 — Rams beat Cardinals 30-23; Rams cover +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“since we spoke we liked the giants at three and a half when daniel jones was the quarterback mike glennon now the quarterback the giants shot up to five and a half immediately get bought down to four and a half we discussed this before you know as we were coming on the air still like the Giants here. Can't see any reason why I shouldn't like the Giants.”
9-20 — Dolphins beat Giants 20-9; Giants bust +4.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm not feeling as good anymore about the money line because apparently Brady just has Matt Ryan's number, but 11 points now in divisional game.”
17-30 — Buccaneers beat Falcons 30-17; Falcons bust +11 (ESPN box score).
“So nothing's changed. Love the number. So happy it moved up. I was really happy to get it. Some books had touched five at one point. I love that. You nailed it. We have to take Pittsburgh here as a home divisional dog against a team where Lamar's had multiple interviews. Now we talked about being six affected him. He doesn't feel that he has the same strength. He says he was tired at the end of the game, which has never really happened for him. It's only happened when he came back from COVID. I know that wasn't COVID related. He was just sick the other week. You guys just had major stuff going on, though. He just hasn't been consistent. He hasn't been at practice consistent. that's going to catch up to him. And, you know, you really did nail on the head. If it's three, if it's more than three, like we were talking a three and a half, we would have taken it. Now it's four and a half. Now it's four. We still love it. We're still going to take it. So nothing's changed. We're going to be on Pittsburgh this Sunday.”
20-19 — Steelers beat Ravens 20-19; Steelers cover +4 (ESPN box score).
“So nothing's changed. We still love the Bills at minus three.”
10-14 — Patriots beat Bills 14-10; Bills lose outright, busting -3 (ESPN box score).
“I am on the Falcons plus 10 and a half.”
17-30 — Buccaneers beat Falcons 30-17; Falcons bust +10.5 (ESPN box score).
“Let's go to the Sunday slate for our money line round, Robin. People are going to hate it, but we got to do it. giants with the backup quarterback on the road. Love it. Lions haven't won a game yet this year. I'm betting it this week. I know Chad hates it. I'm doing it. It's, it's feels like it's that week. No one's going to be doing it. That's why we should be doing it. Uh, well it has felt every single week, like the lines of the team. I could see it. I could see it. I could see it. And this is the week where nobody thinks they can see it. They've just been so bad. Yeah. You see where I'm coming from now that's where we have to do it so we got Giants Lions me and Chad touched on I like the Chargers I know it's short now it's only down to um plus 150 still like it still think you're gonna get value in their mount the run Robin stay away from the Jaguars I'll be doing that one personally you can stay away I'll throw that out Washington football team they're a short one too they're this it feels safe though plus 125 and they cap it out how do we not go Steelers I was You have to go steal the Ravens. That feels like a great fifth option there.”
Round-robin moneyline parlay busts: Giants lost 9-20 to Dolphins; Lions beat Vikings 29-27; Chargers beat Bengals 41-22; Washington beat Raiders 17-15; Steelers beat Ravens 20-19 (ESPN box scores).
“I will be taking the charges. I'll take the three and a half. This is as high as you're going to get on this Bengals team. They just absolutely dominated Pittsburgh. We're getting three and a half points in a matchup where like Herbert's never going to be out of it. Like he is always going to be in it. That game last week, we talked about that was a divisional matchup. That defensive layout was just perfect matchup for against what Herbert wants to do. He's getting a good matchup here against the Cincy team. So three and a half, this number's been a bit up to. We'll take it. It's hard not to take it when this matchup, both these teams are pretty much even. I know that you look at the record this season, it says otherwise. But to me, this is this is a good number. It should be three. It's three and a half just because the public is coming heavy on Cincy. So we'll take the value of Chargers. But this won't be one of my best five.”
41-22 — Chargers beat Bengals 41-22; Chargers cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Exactly. You just said that we like, we have to take this number. The Vikings, if they win, they win by three or they maybe even the games that they're dominating. They always let the teams back in. These two have already played this season. It was a close matchup that time around. Nothing's changed here. We have a team with Detroit on extended rest. So they've had 11 days of prep for this game. We'll take the seven, but Detroit's one of these teams. Like I never feel great backing it because I know awful golfers. So a big injury news. We need to know more about Swift. That's a big deal for this Detroit team. He's kind of what makes them go, but you're giving me a touchdown against the Vikings. I'm going to bet it regardless. It's not one of my favorite bets I'm making this week, but I have to bet it just because of that. That's a good number to take against this Minnesota team.”
29-27 — Lions beat Vikings 29-27; Lions cover +7 (ESPN box score).
“let's climb down into the foxhole are you foxhulling me right now i am i love the giants so much in this oh my god explain it to me we got a road team they love to cover on the road danny danny dimes let's go on the road this number i loved it when i was at three and a half sadly like you just said the professionals have betted down to three still love it at that number that's a key number, but we're looking at a matchup here that you can look at the total. It's very low. I think the bookmakers are telling you these are two very good defenses. Tua has been better. Him and Waddle, that connection has been pretty outstanding, but coming to this matchup, I like the shutdown side of this Giants team. We saw what they did against this Eagles team. They're able to get pressure with their front four and let their cornerbacks kind of shut down the receivers. So I know that the Giants got a little lucky. They probably should have lost to the Eagles. They had two Eagles had two dropped touchdowns in the final couple seconds of the game. Doesn't matter. This number doesn't really reflect that. The public's still going to be coming in heavy on Miami. So hopefully it gets back up at three and a half, but I love it at three.”
9-20 — Dolphins beat Giants 20-9; Giants lose outright, busting +3 (ESPN box score).
“10 and a half. Buccaneers, 10 and a half point favorites. Why, why is my first instinct on this to bet the Falcons? You have to go ahead and bet them, bet the money line right now. I hate it. We have to do it though. Just absolutely gross. Like again, people are gonna hate our bets this week this is one of these that's like this will probably be one of our five come uh come sunday we're like divisional matchup that was a huge win for this Buccaneers team we talked about they haven't been good on the road this year they hadn't covered that was their first cover of the year um on the road so we're looking at a a team that just played”
17-30 — Buccaneers beat Falcons 30-17; Falcons moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“texans colts are uh eight and a half point favorites on the road at the texans god damn it god people are gonna see a pattern this this week's money line around robin's gonna be so ugly i love it and this is gonna be one of those teams houston baby we 100 have to take houston yeah you love this number uh it was up at nine nine and a half the pros have already betted down eight, eight and a half at certain books. We love this number. We will be on Houston. This is, they let us down last week, no doubt. That hurt bad, but you got to move on. We got to keep pushing forward. This is just too high of a number for a divisional matchup”
0-31 — Colts beat Texans 31-0; Texans bust +8.5 (ESPN box score).
“Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears. The flying Cardinals, fully healthy at the Bears, minus seven and a half. We like to fade teams off bye weeks here. It's been good to us all season. We will continue that trend. People, seven and a half, Bears team at home. Take this number. I know how great the Cardinals are. We're probably walking right into a sharp trap. Don't care. You have to take the Bears at home against a Cardinals team that we don't know we're getting from Kyler. Kyler's coming back off an injury that's kept him out for multiple weeks at this point. So I'm expecting them to be rusty. I expect them not to play as well outside in the cold, frigid air of Chicago. So seven and a half home team, the Bears. We have to take it. It doesn't really matter either. But Danny Dolan, him and Justin Field aren't that different. If anything, Danny Dolan's a little better. But we like the upside of Fields. Like at any moment he could take off for a 90 yard touchdown run. So it doesn't matter to us. He was a quarterback for the bears. You just take this number. This doesn't feel like a top five to me.”
22-33 — Cardinals beat Bears 33-22; Bears bust +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams. The Jaguars who are 10 point dogs on the road. This is like a kind of a pass for me. I will be all over the Jags, all over the Jags money line. Yeah, the Rams, we don't know what's wrong with Stafford. Stafford can't hit open guys two feet in front of them. They put out all these ailment of all of his injuries before the game. We kind of knew about it going in. That's why I love Green Bay going into that matchup. I was just like, you're getting a banged up Stafford outdoors. This guy's an indoor quarterback. Man, something's wrong with this Rams team. So if we're going just fading all the negativity, everything, all the bad juju that's going on right now, I love the Jags. The only worry about right now, the Jaguars is Urban Meyer might have a foot out the door. Like by the time this airs, he could already be in Notre Dame as a head coach. So that's a little scary betting the Jaguars this week. But I'm betting them like you're giving me way too many points with a team that they're bad. No doubt the Jaguars are bad, but their defense isn't terrible. Like their defense kind of keeps them in game. So Stafford's really slacking right now. I could get kind of the same matchup where the Bills just kind of gave that game to the Jaguars. And we could get the same thing from Stafford here. Yeah, take the Jaguars, you take the points, and I'll probably have their money line a couple of money line round Robbins.”
7-37 — Rams beat Jaguars 37-7; Jaguars moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers Ravens. Again, there a disparity here Two and a half to three and a half oh god yeah no no Simon Says Pittsburgh no love it why explain it to me what are you hearing why would I do this because I explained to you last week that we had to we're supposed to stay away wait a week This is when you take Pittsburgh. We have the Ravens offer primetime win. Everyone's out on Pittsburgh without realizing this is just a classic divisional matchup. Whoever wins this game is going to win by three. The bookmakers are giving us a gift at three and a half. This is such a pro number. The public's going to come in so heavy on the Ravens as well. I love this game so much. So if your book still has three and a half, maybe you're lucky. You can find a four out there. Grab it. Grab it right now. But just wait. This number will keep getting bet up. We got like COVID stuff going on. I think Watt might've got put on the COVID list. Just, just wait. You're going to get a good number of this Pittsburgh team. I love this matchup. It's gross, dude, but I'm telling you, this is, you have to make these kinds of bets in December. Like this is, the bookmakers know exactly what they're doing, laying this trap. Like, look at you, you're squirming.”
20-19 — Steelers beat Ravens 20-19; Steelers cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“All right. Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs. We love the Broncos. They're 10 point underdogs at the Chiefs right now. Oh, the Denver Broncos. Oh my God I hate this one It like the meeting of two perfect storms Teddy Bridgewater underdog on the road playing against Andy Reid team off a bye week What the hell do we do here It so hard I will tell you right now that there a little bit of a reversal going on here The Broncos are getting the majority of the bets. Yeah. But the money is coming in on the Chiefs. Wow, that's actually shocking. So yeah, the pros are looking the same way as me. It's Andy Reid off a bye week. Like, I hate betting against him off a bye. It's the worst. So I'm going to be taking Teddy. You're giving me 10 points. I'll walk right into this trap. I can't not do it. Too many points in divisional matchup. I'm an idiot. This feels like the bookmakers are telling us to take the Chiefs, but I cannot do it. That's crazy for them to get that many points. They only scored 19 points against a Dallas defense that gave up like 35, 36 points or 33 points to the Raiders. So I don't know. I don't really understand all the cheap respect here. Maybe Teddy's more hurt than we know. That could be part of the reason this line is so big, but we don't know that as we sit here on Tuesday. So to me, you're getting a great number with Teddy. I'll be taking this 10 points. That defense, it's just, they're solid. They've been solid all year.”
9-22 — Chiefs beat Broncos 22-9; Broncos bust +10 (ESPN box score).
“Mitch, we'll play that Bills music. Yeah, Buffalo's happening now. We're on the moon now. We're all in on the bills. You love the bills here. What a gift. Yeah. What a treat from the sports books. People forget. OK, it's all hype week right now for Mac Jones. Go on your phones right now as you're sitting here, people, and go look at who the Patriots have beaten during this historical run they're on. No, they're not beating good teams. And the Bills, I know they've had their issues this year. Josh Allen hasn't really looked like what we talked about he did last year. And we talked about it. It's his footwork. He's not throwing on balance. He's not setting his feet underneath him when he's throwing. That's why he's throwing so many interceptions. God, I love this matchup so much. This is the best time to take the Bills. Like the Patriots, we've been trying to catch them on this run they're on here. Like last week, I really had to convince you to take them. I understood why you were like, no, this is why you take Tennessee. This is so blah, blah, blah. And I just kept saying to you, Tennessee doesn't have the weapons to really compete in this game. The Bills do. And the Bills, this is interesting it's come down this much because that means professionals are coming in on the Patriots. That's not public moving that number on the Patriots. That's pros moving that number. So maybe that might give me a little hesitance to like really hammer this bill's number, but wow. Primetime game. You have the more veteran team in the bills at home. Love it. I love it. Love it. Love it. So I will be all over this bill as a minus three. The difference in your confidence level today versus a month ago is insane.”
10-14 — Patriots beat Bills 14-10; Bills lose outright, busting -3 (ESPN box score).
“Yeah I going with the Falcons plus 10 and a half I guess”
17-30 — Buccaneers beat Falcons 30-17; Falcons bust +10.5 (ESPN box score).
“So the fact that it is Andy Dolan, yeah, I feel good about taking the Bears. I like this number at minus three and a half. As long as he's below four or at four, that's a good number to me on this game.”
16-14 — Bears beat Lions 16-14 on Thanksgiving, only a 2-point win that fails to cover Chicago's -3.5 spread (ESPN Week 12 schedule).
“So, you know, I do think this line will get up higher with the Bills. So if you get the four right now, I would definitely take that number. Well, look, we're taking the trend with the Bills.”
31-6 — Bills beat Saints 31-6 on Thanksgiving, a 25-point win that easily covers Buffalo's -4 spread (ESPN Week 12 schedule).
“rust and sloppy in that game his first game back from the injury so nothing's changing I love this number I'm so happy it's at two and a half that's great the public will keep betting the Jets and hopefully it's Flacco. I would bet it now, but I would also wait to bet on Decent. I don't have to make sure you know who the quarterback is because I do think I can make it a close game with these other quarterbacks besides Flacco. But just looking on paper, this number should be four. I have to take Houston in this matchup.”
21-14 — Jets beat Texans 21-14; Houston lost outright, busting the -2.5 spread (ESPN Week 12 schedule).
“I mean I love the Giants It crazy Divisional game you have to take it though This is such a pro number Same reason we took the Vikings last week Unfortunately we didn get the Vikings at a three which would have been great because at the end of that game we like all right this is either team going to win this game by field goal. But here you're getting a gift for the Giants. It's up to four now. It's going to be three and a half, a lot of books. You bet this number. You got to bet this number every time.”
7-13 — Giants beat Eagles 13-7, a 6-point win that covers New York's +4 spread (ESPN Week 12 schedule).
“They beat them outright. People do think the Colts are a good team. So, how can we not take this number with this Colts team plus three? That's just, it could be a little bit of a sharp trap, but I'm happy to walk into it. I think we're getting a great number here with this.”
38-31 — Buccaneers beat Colts 38-31; Indianapolis lost outright by 7, busting the +3 spread (ESPN Week 12 schedule).
“I got the Broncos two and a half.”
13-28 — Broncos beat Chargers 28-13 outright, which covers Denver's +2.5 spread (ESPN Week 12 schedule).
“All right, I'll go Giants against my Eagles. This is a great spot for them. Getting three and a half, four, four. That's a good number to take with this Giants team.”
7-13 — Giants beat Eagles 13-7, a 6-point win that covers New York's +4 spread (ESPN Week 12 schedule).
“We'll do a money line around Robin just because people love it. It's been cashing for them. Yep. Now, this is going to be as good as it was the last couple weeks, obviously, because we've got a bunch of short home dogs. So let's start off with a very tasty Giants at home. Then we'll go with the Colts at home. Go with the Broncos at home. I'll take Minnesota on the road because we just said that seems like a coin flip kind of game. I really want to put Pittsburgh in there Should we just do that Yeah All right That a good five Yep All right We kind of nailed it It a Tuesday show We giving a lot of we giving people a lot to wait for it Chew on over the Thanksgiving holiday I going to stab your ass with this”
Round-robin busts: Giants ML won (13-7 over Eagles) and Broncos ML won (28-13 over Chargers), but Colts ML lost (31-38 to Buccaneers), Vikings ML lost (26-34 to 49ers), and Steelers ML lost (10-41 to Bengals) — three of five legs missed (ESPN Week 12 schedule).
“Checked it this morning. It's plus 11 and a half right now. Give me SMU plus 11 and a half at Cincinnati.”
14-48 — Cincinnati beat SMU 48-14 at Nippert Stadium; the Mustangs lost by 34, busting the +11.5 spread (Cincinnati Bearcats 2021 season schedule, Wikipedia).
“Kansas State outright.”
20-10 — Baylor beat Kansas State 20-10, so the Kansas State moneyline (to win outright) busts (ESPN college football Week 12 scoreboard).
“some point if you lived specifically and jay boy stealing my thunder here i mean he's absolutely on the mark But if you lived simply in a spreadsheet you would want to put Georgia minus 125 get some money down on that That has value up to minus 150 If you look at their list of teams they projected to play and you take all the projected point spreads and you take the projected lines, it's minus 150. So Georgia, you're going to go into the national championship game, we're holding a minus 150 ticket when their spread is going to be higher and it's going to dictate a higher money line. Absolutely. Minus 125 is the play.”
Georgia beat Alabama 33-18 in the CFP National Championship on Jan 10, 2022, so the futures bet on Georgia to win the title cashes (Wikipedia, 2022 CFP National Championship).
“Well, you know, I don't think Colin's far off base there at all, especially what we know Bryce Young's going to see in Atlanta when they play against Georgia. But kind of looking around the rest, and I'm looking for a more value buy here. Kenneth Walker III plus 450. The reason is he's the whole team offensively, and he has opportunities left. I know it's kind of contradictory to pick Ohio State plus 350 to win the natty outside of Georgia and Bama and then pick Kenneth Walker III plus 450 to win the Heisman as they play each other this weekend. But if Michigan State does go off and we've seen Ohio State play up and down, this hasn't been a super unbelievably consistent Ohio State team that is now just burying everybody. They struggled a little bit with pickups. eight. We've seen there has been some holes in the defense. They switched to a lot of zone coverage, which helps you against the run. A lot of people don't realize that when you're in man and they break a level, a lot of guys have their backs turned. But when you're in zone, safeties, nickels, even corners, depending on what you're running, are able to get to the ball carrier quicker. Their eyes are in a different spot, whether it's going Q to two from the safety position or Q to one from the corner position. But, you know, Kenneth Walker III, to me, still has a chance to put together big opportunities. Because if they beat Ohio State, which I don't think they will, but if they do, Michigan State's sitting pretty. They're sitting very pretty because we all know the other side, like Colin mentioned, with Wisconsin and Minnesota is not nearly as strong as what you have on the side with Michigan State, Penn State, Michigan, and Ohio State. So Kenneth Walker III plus 450. If I was going to look outside of Bryce Young and CJ Stroud, that's where I would go.”
Bryce Young (Alabama) won the 2021 Heisman Trophy, not Kenneth Walker III, so the futures bet busts (Heisman.com official winners list).
“We were all over Atlanta on Tuesday. I bet the Falcons plus seven, the line has been moving down,”
25-0 — Patriots routed Falcons 25-0; Atlanta lost outright, busting the +7 spread (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“I'm still in on Atlanta plus six and a half.”
25-0 — Patriots routed Falcons 25-0; Atlanta lost outright, busting the +6.5 spread (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“So divisional games, that's what we're banking on here. You kind of have these teams that just match up really well with each other inside these divisions. And that's how I look at this Vikings team. I just think to myself, it's not going to be fun. Me and Chad hate betting on Kirk Cousins because it's never a good time. But this is a pro line. We have to bet this number. Got to. Got to. That'll be in the contest for sure. We'll get it at two and a half. Again, if you're going to bet it, it's now at one. You might as well wait and see what happens on Sunday if the public comes in on the Packers.”
31-34 — Vikings beat Packers 34-31, a 3-point win that covers Minnesota's +2.5 spread (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“When I was able to bet it on Tuesday, legally in the state of Connecticut, I got it at 11.”
22-13 — Texans beat Titans 22-13 outright, which covers Houston's +11 spread (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“Got it at plus 380, I think.”
22-13 — Texans won outright 22-13 over the Titans, so the Houston moneyline (+380) cashes (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“i'm with you on it all right this other one that i love and that i think will definitely be in our five. Colts plus seven, plus seven and a half at the bills. Yeah. The seven and a half was a treat down to seven. It's going to be down to six and a half, probably in most books by the weekend. I think I got the Colts at seven and a half on Tuesday. Yeah. And like, I hit a couple of books at seven and a half, but obviously our good friends, our partners here, it's where it's stuck at seven for a while. Fan duel. I think they eventually got to seven and a half and then I got bet down.”
41-15 — Colts routed Bills 41-15, covering Indianapolis's +7 spread easily (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“Love, love, love, love this matchup here. Walking into a Thursday. I, as soon as I saw this line open, I knew it was going to be bet up. So I didn't even touch it. Got to seven, seven and a half at some offshore books. Atlanta. You know the drill, Chad. We've been down this road too many times with Atlanta. They kill it one week, they fall apart the next week, and now they're back again. Everyone's off this line. I think shit was like four or three. Now it's all up to seven, seven and a half. I mean, what else can we do here? Home dog, getting no money, no bets. Every time, Chad, we take Atlanta here.”
25-0 — Patriots routed Falcons 25-0; Atlanta lost outright, busting the +7 spread (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“So it's a fair number, but I just think you're getting too much value in a divisional matchup with this Houston team at 10.5.”
22-13 — Texans beat Titans 22-13, a 9-point win that covers Houston's +10.5 spread (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“happening to even get to that number two. So sitting here again with Tennessee, like Chad just talked about, we want to fade them. Everything is going their way. This Houston team's coming off a bye. I know statistically this year, ATS teams have been bad off byes. I feel like everything you just said so right. Taylor needed that extra time. He was just rusty in that Miami game. So giving him more time, giving the time for the Houston team to get healthy. Tennessee is not healthy. They have a lot of injuries adding up. That's what's been like, you know, as much as I want to bash Tennessee Titans, Tannehill on paper, like statistically, having an incredible season. One of the best players against the Blitz. one of the best players against double coverage. Everything he's doing is really, really smart this season. So it's a fair number, but I just think you're getting too much value in a divisional matchup with this Houston team at 10.5. That's why I want you to take it now because I think it's going to go down to 10 and put a little bit on the money line.”
22-13 — Texans won outright 22-13 over the Titans, so the Houston moneyline cashes (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“Yeah And again I having them all This is a good number to have in teasers too You tease this up to seven and a half That why it weird to give you the one and a half hook Like you could be right I could be walking right into a trap here but I got to do it This feels like a good number”
29-40 — Eagles beat Saints 40-29; New Orleans lost outright, busting the +1.5 spread (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“i'm going with the saints plus one and a half”
29-40 — Eagles beat Saints 40-29; New Orleans lost outright, busting the +1.5 spread (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“It's seven and a half.”
41-15 — Colts routed Bills 41-15, covering Indianapolis's +7.5 spread easily (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“Give me the Colts on the money line.”
41-15 — Colts won outright 41-15 over the Bills, so the Indianapolis moneyline cashes (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“blind moves all the way to minus four and a half for the Vikings they lost outright so give me two and a half with this Minnesota team at home against the Packers where say what you want about that Packers Seahawks game Rodgers didn't win that I mean I guess he kind of did win that game that was more about Russell Wilson just could not get it right the guy just again we talked about he hit pins in his hands that I hate myself for not betting that under like that was just such an easy under bet. And for some reason I didn't touch it. Coming in this week, I'm not making this mistake where I'm going to be scared of Rogers because they have been a covering machine. We have to look for the other way, Chad, right? We always talk about regression. This is such a perfect opportunity for a regression spot for the Supreme Bay team. You're taking Minnesota at home, two and a half. Everyone thinks, all the public's going to think, I'm getting a great number here with Rogers. Getting them only two and a half. Just needs to win by a field goal. Give me the Vikings.”
31-34 — Vikings beat Packers 34-31, a 3-point win that covers Minnesota's +2.5 spread (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“I just some schmuck sitting in the middle of Connecticut Yeah but every now and then Chad you know You know every now and then So I not going to force it in because there other dogs I like better but I be taking the Jags I be taking their money line just on the fact that the 49ers are feeling great This is a great letdown spot.”
30-10 — 49ers beat Jaguars 30-10, so the Jacksonville moneyline busts (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“actually never been more convinced that the Jags are the right side. In fact, I'm making a money line parlay right now with the Texans, the Colts and the Jags. I'm making an AFC money line parlay.”
Parlay busts: Texans ML won (22-13 over Titans) and Colts ML won (41-15 over Bills), but Jaguars ML lost (10-30 to 49ers), so the 3-leg parlay fails on one leg (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“Take the 49ers while you still can get the three and a half This is a prime prime time to take this number”
SF 31, LAR 10 — 49ers beat Rams 31-10 on Monday Night Football; San Francisco won by 21, covering +3.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Can't not do it. This is another trend for you, friends from our friends at BetLabs. 9-0, the Saints as a road dog, their last nine. So come on. I mean, how can we not take the Saints here? This is also, it's the overreaction game of the week, right? And the Titans are so overvalued in the market based on the wins they've had the past couple of weeks. They beat the Colts in dramatic fashion with some flukiness. They beat the Rams in dramatic fashion, meaning Derrick Henry is out. They're big dogs. They're on the road. They're picking off Mad Stafford left and right. Yeah. There's some high variance in that game. They didn't win because they were a well-rounded team. and the Saints defense is just so good. You could argue it's probably one of the best defenses in the NFL. And so to me, you've got Sean Payton, who's amazing as an underdog. I listened to Stucky and Raban on the Action Network podcast this morning. Sean Payton, the second most profitable coach against the spread coming off of a loss since 2003. like that like everything screams this this number's moved it was at three now it's a two and a half in a lot of places i still better to two and a half this could be that game it could be that colts game from a few weeks ago but how do you not love this yeah and i honestly would have this is being one of my bigger bets of the week if it was not for the late ad of kamara to”
TEN 23, NO 21 — Titans beat Saints 23-21; New Orleans lost by 2, covering +2.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“So we'll stick with, with a Washington football team, nine and a half. We still like it.”
WSH 29, TB 19 — Washington beat Buccaneers 29-19; Washington won by 10, covering +9.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“I just don't really have a feel for it. I was on the Green Bay side. So if you throw the Seahawks money line in there, you want to take out one of these big ones and watching a football team in the Jets. I get it. I just like playing these big numbers because of the value of the whole over the whole season. Yeah, guy like I had pins in my thumb. Oh, yeah. I had him taken out. I was I was balling the next day. Really? I mean, literally crying, not falling. What was that like, though? Like, did it feel normal, like literally right afterwards? It's fucking weird. it's really weird but look they'll shoot him up they'll wrap it he'll play he'll be fine i'd rather bet on russell wilson seven days removed from pins than aaron rogers uh off of covid having seen how challenging it can be for people to come back from that having not for two weeks. Yeah, that's I'm with you on that. But I've been burned by these situations all year. So I'll just I'll just pass. Okay. All right. We've done Survivor. We've done Moneyline Parlay. We've narrowed down our picks. I will remind everybody watch Convince Me Sunday mornings at Action Network HQ 11 a.m. Eastern. We'll dig in a little deeper. Reminder for Scooch Roulette. I took Washington plus nine and a half. Simon took the Saints plus plus three. I'm kind of regretting. My choice, our big balls bet of the week is the Jets plus 13. Our Simon Says is Washington football team plus nine and a half. Our foxhole is Saints plus three. I am Shad Millman for Simon Hunter. This has been the favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. Download on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts. Rate, review, subscribe. We'll be back on Tuesday.”
NYJ 17, BUF 45 — Bills beat Jets 45-17; New York lost by 28, busting +13 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Colt McCoy, 10 point favorite. Come on. That's, that's insane. Come on, man. Against this defense in Carolina. I mean, you got to take Carolina.”
ARI 10, CAR 34 — Panthers beat Cardinals 34-10; Carolina won outright, easily covering +10 (ESPN scoreboard).
“What about the Moneyline Parlay? I'd be tempted on the Panthers here. I don't hate it. So I was going to go with the Jets just because they're at home. And I like that it's a bigger number. I know the Bills, it's a divisional game. They need it. But that's even more reason. I just their wheels are spinning right now. I just like the way the Jets have been playing. So I'll throw the Jets in there. Cal will have Carolina in his. So right now I have this is actually a good big, big week for this one. If this hits, it'd be a really nice payday. I got the Jets. I got the Washington football team. I got the Saints. I got the Raiders and I got the 49ers.”
Parlay busts: Jets ML lost (Bills 45, Jets 17); Washington ML won (Washington 29, Bucs 19); Saints ML lost (Titans 23, Saints 21); Raiders ML lost (Chiefs 41, Raiders 14); 49ers ML won (49ers 31, Rams 10) — not all legs won, so the parlay loses (ESPN scoreboard).
“This to me is an automatic. If I'm not feeling the weight of the past several weeks, I'm looking at this and it's clear as day. Take the Washington football team plus nine and a half.”
WSH 29, TB 19 — Washington beat Buccaneers 29-19; Washington won by 10, covering +9.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Man, people are all in on this team. Perfect time to come in and take this Saints team. You're getting plus three right now. I think we'll be able to get three and a half, too, if it keeps going up. People are going to keep betting this Tennessee side. So I'll grab the three now that it's there, but I'll grab it even more if it gets up to three and a half. I love it. I love it. I love it. I love that we're in the foxhole. I love taking the Saints.”
TEN 23, NO 21 — Titans beat Saints 23-21; New Orleans lost by 2, covering +3 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Jaguars are 10 and a half point dogs. Give me the Colts. This is a no brainer.”
IND 23, JAX 17 — Colts beat Jaguars 23-17; Indianapolis won by only 6, busting -10.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“buffalo bills at new york jets this is a 13 point spread right now j e t s jets jets jets i mean mike white this guy looks great i that's why i can't believe he's coming back he should just retire after that first drive he had against the colts like people are all in on him i want him as my quarterback, as my backup, at least on my team. Like this guy looks like a quarterback. The Bills are reeling. Usually I be on the Bills in a bounce back spot here I don want to fade Mike White Like if he would have played that full game against the Colts I have no doubt the Jets are going to cover that 10 and a half Like that kid drove right down the field No problem His opening drive So it sounds like they going to sit Zach Wilson another week. It's going to be Mike White again. We're going to get burned somehow, aren't we? By being all in on this guy, but at 13 and a half points, give me that cushion. Even at 13 points, I'm still happy with the numbers. So this stays above 12 and a half, stays above 10. All those key numbers, I love taking this Jets team.”
NYJ 17, BUF 45 — Bills beat Jets 45-17; New York lost by 28, busting +13 (ESPN scoreboard).
“I think you can get the Panthers again at plus four. I think they're back up to four. So yes, go all in on that.”
CAR 6, NE 24 — Patriots beat Panthers 24-6; Carolina lost by 18, busting +4 (ESPN scoreboard).
“But I love Green Bay. I'm going to love Green Bay's money line on the simple fact that if you're giving me plus 250”
KC 13, GB 7 — Chiefs beat Packers 13-7; Green Bay lost outright, busting the moneyline (ESPN scoreboard).
“We talked about it a little bit. Herbert might be banged up. Supposedly he's hurt. This line keeps moving down with the Seagulls. It's down to plus one and a lot of offshore books, which I know a lot of professionals use. And they move numbers. And I kind of take notice when I see that stuff. If they bet this down from two and a half to down to plus one, even though when I check the action app, it says all the money and all the tickets are pouring in on the Chargers team. That's interesting. I think that these pros might know something more than we do about Herbert. Maybe he's more injured than that's getting let on. So if you can still get plus two and a half, I'd take that now. Because if it comes out, there is something going on there. He might be banged up. You're going to see it move just like this Arizona line. It's going to start dropping. So I am in on the Eagles.”
PHI 24, LAC 27 — Chargers beat Eagles 27-24; Philadelphia lost by 3, busting +2.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“As we transition into Survivor, which deserves a little bit of conversation today, let's recap. Panthers plus four. Well, Chiefs is in the contest to pick, but that's not what the line is anymore. Panthers plus four, Niners plus one. We still like the Bengals minus two and a half. Take the Eagles plus two and a half because there's whispers about Herbert's health.”
SF 17, ARI 31 — Cardinals beat 49ers 31-17; San Francisco lost by 14, busting +1 (ESPN scoreboard).
“we're doing a money line parlay this week simon this is what i would do i would do the panthers I would do the 49ers. Love it. That might be all that I love right now. We'll throw Minnesota Vikings in for my boy. Minnesota Vikings. Throw Eagles in there. Jesus Christ. Now all of a sudden it's getting disgusting. Oh, this is going to be the grossest part of the whole thing. Green Bay. Throw it in there, people.”
Parlay busts: Panthers ML lost (Patriots 24, Panthers 6); 49ers ML lost (Cardinals 31, 49ers 17); Vikings ML lost (Ravens 34, Vikings 31 OT); Eagles ML lost (Chargers 27, Eagles 24); Packers ML lost (Chiefs 13, Packers 7) — all five legs lost (ESPN scoreboard).
“Jesus Christ. I mean, obviously we have to take the Colts here. Jets Mike White just had his career game. I think it's him and Steve Young are the only guys ever to be down by double digits in the final five minutes and come back and win in their first start ever. So Mike White, maybe this is the Drew Bledsoe, Tom Brady scenario for the Jets. The Jets, Zach Wilson gets knocked out by the Patriots. Their backup ends up being a Hall of Famer in Mike White, or we just fade them because this is completely BS. And this kid is not as good as you look in that game. So, yeah, what are you going to do? The public's going to come in heavy on a 10 and a half here with the dog. They just saw them upset what they think is one of the better teams in the football and the Bengals. I have to go the other way. How do I not take the Colts here? I had this line at minus 12.”
IND 45, NYJ 30 — Colts beat Jets 45-30 on Thursday Night Football; Indianapolis won by 15, covering -10.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“way, I'm getting the bangles at two and a half. I'm not getting the bangles, whatever fucked up number it lands at on Sunday. Bangles, two and a half. Scooch roulette. That's a roulette wheel.”
CIN 16, CLE 41 — Browns beat Bengals 41-16; Cincinnati lost outright, busting -2.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“We love the Colts. [6:20] We love them at plus one and a half. We're still going to be on them. If it gets any higher, we got to reconsider it.”
TEN 34, IND 31 — Titans beat Colts 34-31 in OT; Indianapolis lost by 3, no cover of +1.5 (ESPN).
“regression spot. But I'm with you, man. I look at the Chargers at four and a half. I'm like, are you fucking kidding me?”
NE 27, LAC 24 — Patriots beat Chargers 27-24; Los Angeles lost by 3, covering +4.5 (ESPN).
“I'm still going to be taking the Saints money line. Thank you for the pros betting this up, giving me more value on the money line.”
NO 36, TB 27 — Saints beat Buccaneers 36-27 outright, so the New Orleans moneyline wins (ESPN).
“Yeah, I can throw one out. So if you would not listen to me last week or no, if you listen to me on the show, you had the Colts in there with the Bengals with Tennessee. You had a good, good week. Unfortunately, I was an idiot and I didn't do that. So this week, going back to the well, we love home dogs. No surprise. So the Colts are no longer an underdog, so I won't throw them in there anymore. I did have them in there earlier in the week. If you want to ride with, I'm still in the Packers tonight. Still in the Packers plus six and a half. Still in their money line tonight, if anyone wants to ride with that one. If not, we can throw it out. Let's go through it. Like the Jaguars on the money line. Like the Saints on the money line. Like the Vikings on the money line. I I'm going to wait and see if it's to ride Taylor 100% will have the Texans in on my money line parlay again wait and see he just came back to practice today he is a difference maker for that offense and rounded out with some other ugly dogs people don't like it but I'm still going to take the Panthers money line it's I just have to do it against the Falcons um and you know if they're looking for a 6-1 to throw in there. Don't hate the football team. They've been unlucky last couple weeks. Feels like a ball of teams are really due for a win. Against the Broncos team, that just seems like they're completely falling apart with Teddy Bridgewater being banged up It just does not seem right over there And I think Vaughn Miller is out as well for this game So if you looking for a sixth one to throw in and you don want to put Green Bay in tonight got no issue taking Washington in this.”
Week 8 ML round robin: Saints beat Buccaneers 36-27 (won) and Panthers beat Falcons 19-13 (won), but Cowboys beat Vikings 20-16 (Vikings ML lost), Seahawks beat Jaguars 31-7 (Jaguars ML lost), and Broncos beat Washington 17-10 (Washington ML lost), so the parlay busts (ESPN week 8 scoreboard).
“And I bet on the Colts plus one and a half.”
TEN 34, IND 31 — Titans beat Colts 34-31 in OT; Indianapolis lost by 3, no cover of +1.5 (ESPN).
“Give me the Bears plus three and a half.”
SF 33, CHI 22 — 49ers beat Bears 33-22; Chicago lost by 11, no cover of +3.5 (ESPN).
“getting right this week i don't know what to do like it's three and a half two horrible teams how do i not take the ugly three and a half dog um the public will be coming in heavy on seahawks everyone hates the jaguars i hate that i have to bet the jaguars so i'm not gonna make it anywhere like foxhole any of that stuff because i can't do it anymore with the fans of the show but yes jags three and a half jags money line i'll be betting all of it we're gonna have to go into”
SEA 31, JAX 7 — Seahawks beat Jaguars 31-7; Jacksonville lost by 24, no cover of +3.5 (ESPN).
“getting right this week i don't know what to do like it's three and a half two horrible teams how do i not take the ugly three and a half dog um the public will be coming in heavy on seahawks everyone hates the jaguars i hate that i have to bet the jaguars so i'm not gonna make it anywhere like foxhole any of that stuff because i can't do it anymore with the fans of the show but yes jags three and a half jags money line i'll be betting all of it we're gonna have to go into”
SEA 31, JAX 7 — Seahawks beat Jaguars 31-7 outright, so the Jacksonville moneyline loses (ESPN).
“I'm taking the Saints plus five against the Bucs.”
NO 36, TB 27 — Saints beat Buccaneers 36-27; New Orleans won by 9, covering +5 (ESPN).
“I had this line at two. It's two and a half now. That's a good number by the books. But, man, it just screams trap. Everything I look at on paper, this just screams a trap. So I have to trust my instincts here and take this Minnesota team at home.”
DAL 20, MIN 16 — Cowboys beat Vikings 20-16; Minnesota lost by 4, no cover of +2.5 (ESPN).
“So nothing's changed here. Still like the number. I wish it was at seven. Don't mind it at six and a half. That's a key number like we talked about. So this feels like an easy no-brainer. This will be one of our five.”
CIN 41, BAL 17 — Bengals beat Ravens 41-17; Cincinnati won by 24, covering +6.5 (ESPN).
“The Eagles, my Scoot Roulette pick. They are currently, let me just triple check here, three-point underdogs.”
LV 33, PHI 22 — Raiders beat Eagles 33-22; Philadelphia lost by 11, no cover of +3 (ESPN).
“sheesh denver is still three and a half in here do it that's we gotta do it all right putting that”
CLE 17, DEN 14 — Browns beat Broncos 17-14; Denver lost by 3, covering +3.5 (ESPN).
“because i'm anxious about a game please please i did bet the broncos plus three got ahead of that because we had a little conversation about it on down to one now”
CLE 17, DEN 14 — Browns beat Broncos 17-14; Denver lost by exactly 3, pushing the +3 spread (ESPN).
“influences what we do on Thursday. We're going to start with sharp calls. Hello, who's there? I'm talking. yeah quick quick calls this week so mad metro probably posted it 4 p.m i got multiple calls by 5 30 5 15 which is like 2 15 2 o'clock las vegas time so my one i love that we have avid listeners who are listening as soon as the show is dropped again these are people that do nothing all day so you shouldn't be that shocked like a lot of my guys I work with their days don't start till 7 p.m so I'm not shocked at all but yeah first first thing uh he says he goes how are you taking Green Bay after last week you gotta take Washington football team you love this number at nine you love it at nine and a half and he just kept going on and on I love I still love Green Bay still think we're getting a great number uh I think professionals are kind of getting trapped here where they're seeing a high number they're just like me and you we think green bay is overrated they're not as good as they've been this year like they've they've played above where they should be but when you start diving in the numbers it's like you know they've actually been a little unlucky they're one of the worst teams in the red zone um statistically this year playing against a washington football team that man there's no doubt in it now they're they're bad like their their d line is not as good as we thought it was. Their secondary is legit awful. So, you know, he was giving me a hard time saying we should be off Green Bay. Nothing's changed. I still love it. Still love it at seven and a half. It feels just like last week with the Rams and the Giants. These professional groups are coming in on this dog. They think they're getting a good number. They're bending all the way down. In the end, they might be just giving us a better number. So I have no issues taking Green Bay putting them in a teaser And I get their argument It the same reason I kind of like the Texans this week It a nice look spot So the Cardinals and Green Bay play each other on Thursday night People are assuming they're going to kind of overlook both these teams that are playing to get ready for Thursday night. I just can't see that with Green Bay at home. And it's hard to see the Cardinals who are undefeated just laying an egg. So it's both these times where I hear why they're saying it's a look-ahead spot. I just can't get on board with that with these two teams. You love this game so much and you have made it. I mentioned Scooch Roulette, obviously. Scooch Roulette, for those who are new to the podcast, I mentioned Bob Scooch earlier. Scooch and I, when he was the co-host of the podcast before Simon had him killed, we used to do this head-to-head matchup, Scooch Roulette. I choose a game, he choose a game. uh so we brought it back in honor of scooch and this week scooch roulette simon chose green bay i chose the eagles um as underdogs against the raiders this is the most interesting game on the board right now because when i listened to raybon and stucky in the action network podcast this morning and they were going through their sunday six pack um they loved washington a the line was nine and a half. You mentioned the line has now moved down to seven and a half. They had it rated at seven. They made some really good points about the Washington football team and that while the D-line hasn't performed as well as it did last year, it's still pretty good. The pass rush has been strong. It just hasn't been getting to the quarterback. It's the defensive backfield that is a mess and that's what's causing the problems for the Washington football team. And then you think about the Packers. And two years ago, Raybon did amazing stories about Aaron Rodgers and how he was continuing to perform worse and worse against the pass rush. Obviously, rectified that last year. But this year, there are three quarterbacks worse against the rush right now than Aaron Rodgers. Tua, Geno Smith, Justin Fields. So we're talking about a team that does have a look-ahead spot that to me still has some fluky wins. Like there were some plays in that Bears game that it didn't need to go that way. It's making me a little nervous about this. It puts me in a quandary because I'm starting to favor the Washington football team. It feels like a overrated, underrated spot. I got the guys in Vegas calling you, sharp calls, but you love this so much. You've made it your scooch roulette pick. How can I not back my BFF and want this to be in our top five? Don't step into the trap. It's just a trap. Antonio Gibson, their number one running back, he's hurt. Terry McLaurin, their number one receiver, he's hurt. Curtis Samuel, their number two receiver, he's hurt. Heineke is not a good quarterback. So if it was Fitz and all their guys were healthy, I told you I'd love Washington. This is a great position. You literally got the backup quarterback with no starters on offense. So if you're down 14 points to Green Bay, you're going to be praying to even get in field goal range with this Washington team. I just don't see how they move the ball. So I just, in a normal situation, yeah, I'd be with them on Washington. I just feel like they're overlooking the most obvious things, that this Washington team doesn't have any offensive weapons to stay in this game. So, again, I feel great about my green position. I'm happy now that it's down to 7.5-7. At 7.5-7, it starts to feel much better to me. I wonder if professional betters other than you, look at this at seven and have seven and say, Oh, I'm taking the Packers. Yeah. I mean, they took it at 10. They took it at nine and a half. Maybe they will flip over, but they didn't last week. Like they kept betting the giants. They bet it down a lot of offshore books that got down to seven by kickoff. So we'll see what they'll do this week,”
GB 24, WSH 10 — Packers beat Washington 24-10; Green Bay won by 14, covering -7.5 (ESPN).
“I mean, we were going to wait and see if this keep getting better up because that'd be great if we could get this at six. And now it's going the other way. Kind of some books have it down to four and a half now. So still the same thing. We like the Tennessee team that can run on this Chiefs team. but it's this classic game. Whoever has the ball last feels like they're going to win. So, you know, I'm going to take the points and I'll take the money line on Tennessee just because that's where the value is. But this is the definition of a coin flip game. There's so many injuries in this secondary to this Tennessee team. No one's going to be able to stop Travis Kelsey in this matchup. So if they can ball control it with Derrick Henry, you know, it's going to be second and three all game for this Tennessee offense. And Ryan Tannehill can just make these short completions and step up. it hard not to take Tennessee here They just everything slants towards them where they the home team They have the run game that can be consistent We seen it with Mahomes He makes incredible plays He also messes up a decent amount. If you mess up against his Tennessee team, they're going to capitalize on it. So I still love the number of four and a half.”
TEN 27, KC 3 — Titans beat Chiefs 27-3 outright; Tennessee covers +4.5 easily (ESPN).
“[35:31] thing so yeah if if you're like us we're sitting here we're either gonna take new england or the [35:36] cardinals just week just to get rid of them because these this is by far their best matchups [35:41] both of them um i feel honestly i feel better taking the cardinals just because it feels more [35:47] safe like you know we'll win where new england it's again it's mac jones like the kid is a rookie [35:54] that make stupid mistakes. [35:55] So a little scary, [35:56] but if we want to get rid of New England, [35:58] this is a prime spot to do so. [36:01] I would rather take the Cardinals.”
ARI 31, HOU 5 — Cardinals beat Texans 31-5 outright, so the Arizona moneyline wins (ESPN).
“um he's always a play away from being hurt and then Case Keenum's coming in so this number still sitting at three and a half of your book with the Broncos I have no issue taking that as we sit here on Tuesday Teddy covers he's been bad of late he hasn't been an underdog and we like Teddy taking him in this position as an underdog so three and a half Teddy's an underdog this this is when we pounce so as long as you're getting that hook above the three I feel comfortable taking it because as we sit here on Tuesday the information we're getting it feels like it's me a game time decision for Baker. So I do see this number coming down if it is Baker is out. So I would take that three and a half while you done It going to be tough”
CLE 17, DEN 14 — Browns beat Broncos 17-14; Denver lost by 3, covering +3.5 (ESPN).
“Let's talk about the Philadelphia Eagles. Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders. The Eagles now three and a half point dogs. Massive, massive pros-Joes game. And this is when you 100% flip the script and bet on the Philadelphia Eagles. Yeah, we're not going to have fun. This is not going to be enjoying. I mean, anyone that bet the Eagles Thursday night, that was not fun. That was such an awful sweat, but such a beautiful one at the same time. It was never in doubt, as they said. Again, Chad touched on it. This is a pros versus Joes game. We are going to start seeing a pattern here. Whatever game, I think Stucky tweeted out, whoever's the underdog in the Oakland, I mean, the Las Vegas Raiders matchup, you just take the underdog. That's who's going to cover. So if it's Las Vegas and their dog, they'll cover. They're the favorite. Whoever they're playing against is going to cover. We love it at three and a half. This is going to go down to three in a lot of books. Pros are going to come in on this number.”
LV 33, PHI 22 — Raiders beat Eagles 33-22; Philadelphia lost by 11, no cover of +3.5 (ESPN).
“Everyone's going to be betting Atlanta. Only pros will be taking Miami. Tua's not as bad as he looked in that game. He had little moments where he looked rusty, like he hadn't played in a couple weeks. Love Miami. Love Miami in this bounce back spot at home after that kind of loss. I will be on an island though. So I have no doubt this is the same thing where me and you were going to, it's going to come to Sunday and I'm going to be like, I can't do it to you, Chad. I can't make you put this one in the contest and Miami is going to win by 20 points. So these are one of the few lines I'd bet early on. Cause if you got the three at a couple of books for just a little bit and I bet it, and now it's back down to two and a half. So if it gets back to three, I'll be on Miami.”
ATL 30, MIA 28 — Falcons beat Dolphins 30-28; Miami lost by 2, covering +3 (ESPN).
“I gonna go chalk I take Green Bay minus nine [30:30] and a half wow yeah before it gets to 10”
GB 24, WSH 10 — Packers beat Washington 24-10; Green Bay won by 14, covering -9.5 (ESPN).
“I'm going to be the sharp here. I'm taking the Eagles plus three and a half at the Las Vegas [47:48] Raiders.”
LV 33, PHI 22 — Raiders beat Eagles 33-22; Philadelphia lost by 11, no cover of +3.5 (ESPN).
“give me a bullshit trend with a small sample size i like the saints um coming off a bye week playing against the Seahawks team that kind of gave everything in that Pittsburgh matchup and they lost So this stays at five stays below six Got no issue taking the Saints here This is a must win game for the Saints if they want to make the playoffs this year because they have a really hard schedule coming up So they kind of got to steal this one here and, you know, say what you want about the Saints team. They haven't looked great, obviously, this year. Their defense has been played pretty well all year. So if that's one thing I can lean on and they're rushing attack against this really bad run defense of the Seahawks, I like it. I like it's rare for me to take primetime favorites, but I do like the Saints in this position.”
NO 13, SEA 10 — Saints beat Seahawks 13-10; New Orleans won by only 3, no cover of -5 (ESPN).
“this week it's going to flip because we're going to be on the browns minus three and we fucking love this number easy money done done totally i'm putting it in i'm putting it in the contest”
ARI 37, CLE 14 — Cardinals beat the Browns 37-14 outright; Cleveland failed to cover -3, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“We like the plus six and a half. [9:12] Now I'm sitting here talking about Chad Eagles has to be our Hornets nest play, doesn't it?”
TB 28, PHI 22 — Buccaneers beat the Eagles 28-22; Philadelphia margin -6 covers the +6.5 line, so the spread bet won (ESPN).
“We love the Browns. We are thinking that we're going to be on the Raiders so that's three we're liking the bears bears have to be in there four and a half yeah we're on we're on the bears at four and a half that's four games eagles browns raiders bears and then i think we're going to choose on sunday like lions texans or somebody else yeah or washington like that's what”
GB 24, CHI 14 — Packers beat the Bears 24-14; Chicago margin -10 vs the +4.5 line, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“I'm the only one that has Las Vegas [32:17] Raiders as a favorite. So everyone else is all over this Denver team. They think this is a good [32:22] line On the other way I have Las Vegas at minus one So I love this number I think we getting incredible value three and a half”
DEN 24, LV 34 — Raiders beat the Broncos 34-24 outright, covering +3.5, so the spread bet won (ESPN).
“I've already bet the plus 14 against Arizona next week with this Houston [12:21] team just in case he does come back I can see that line dropping”
ARI 31, HOU 5 — Cardinals beat the Texans 31-5; Houston margin -26 vs the +14 line, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“So I'm going to be riding this Bills team. [36:14] I'm all in on them. [36:15] I think this line should be six, six and a half. [36:17] It's still five and a half. [36:19] Happy to take that number at this point.”
TEN 34, BUF 31 — Titans beat the Bills 34-31; Buffalo failed to cover -5.5 (lost outright), so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“So I'm going to do Thursday night special. I'll have the Eagles in there, even though I really have zero faith in this team to win. But I do love them to cover Detroit, Washington. Again, Carolina's too short, so we don't have to put that one in. Put the Lions in there. And then I like capping off with the Raiders just because I would love to have New England in there. I just can't see them winning it. I just, I can't have faith in a rookie quarterback like that to close this game out against Dak. Dak has just been playing too well this year. So it's maybe come Sunday, I'll throw one out there with the, with New England in there. As we sit here Thursday, I don't have any money line ties to this New England bet.”
Three of the four moneyline legs lost outright in Week 6 2021: Buccaneers beat Eagles 28-22, Bengals beat Lions 34-11, and Chiefs beat Washington 31-13; only the Raiders' 34-24 win over the Broncos hit, so the round robin parlay lost (ESPN).
“the Buccaneers on a Thursday night game. Tom Brady, I don't know if you'll remember this. He forgot what down it was. He thought He had one more down. He didn't. We have to take the Eagles in this position. Eagles are undefeated. We're not undefeated, but I believe they're 7-0 on their last seven Thursday night games. A little fun fact for you. We love Thursdays in Philly. The fans will get up for it. It's a Thursday night game. Again, people have been drinking since noon. It's a little bit of people are underrating the... Again, Buccaneers have one of the greatest runees we've probably ever seen. It's incredible what they've done this season as a run defense. But their cornerbacks, that's such a real issue. And, you know, Brissette is a corpse. That guy can't move. And he got injured in the first quarter, and he was just done. They were out two of their top receivers in Miami. I should have known better to really back that Miami team with all the injuries they had. But I thought Flores was going to have a defense that was going to step up. And, again, they give up 45 points. I did not see that coming with that Miami defense. we've seen it with this defense. They've played well this year. They've, they really shut down a Carolina offense. They shut down the 49ers offense every game they've been in. I know you can see the chiefs really blew them out. That was just kind of, I don't know how to say this, but you know, it's my homes. It's my homes. It's a little bit different where I can see this D line again after Brady, where I just didn't see it. They had an advantage against Darnold or my homes. I ate a bowl last week with Darnold. He was terribly through three interceptions. I don't know if they're going to get that kind of luck against Brady again, but now that's up to seven and a half Chad over a touchdown at home. What are you thinking here, buddy?”
TB 28, PHI 22 — Buccaneers beat the Eagles 28-22; Philadelphia margin -6 covers the +7.5 line, so the spread bet won (ESPN).
“because I think it will go down to six and a half. Grab the seven right now, plus seven, a fan duel. When Simon Says do it, when Simon Says do it, We do what Simon says. There we go. Simon says grab the Washington football team. Next up. Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers. Boy, if this isn't a disappointing team visiting a team that we have completely lost our read on, I don't know what is. the Panthers are one point underdogs at home against the Vikings who thou art you Sam Darnold”
KC 31, WSH 13 — Chiefs beat Washington 31-13; Washington margin -18 vs the +7 line, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“This is a bet Detroit on the Moneyline game”
CIN 34, DET 11 — Bengals beat the Lions 34-11, so the Detroit moneyline bet lost (ESPN).
“They're running the ball really well against this Raiders team. So you're giving me four and a half, a divisional game at home. We'll take the Bears.”
GB 24, CHI 14 — Packers beat the Bears 24-14; Chicago margin -10 vs the +4.5 line, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“Are we taking advantage of that with the Raiders as three and a half point underdogs at Denver? This is one of my bigger bets, Chad. No. Yeah. Love, love, love the Raiders in this position.”
DEN 24, LV 34 — Raiders beat the Broncos 34-24 outright, covering +3.5, so the spread bet won (ESPN).
“on Mike Evans or Godwin, I just feel like there's enough pieces for this Miami team to keep us close where, again, I had this power rate at seven and a half. It opened at 10 and a half, 11. I thought I was getting three points of value. To me, that's huge. I've been on Miami, going to keep betting them. I'll take them down to eight and a half at this point. Of course, Chad, we're going to have their money line in a couple of bets because, again, this is a last possession kind the game. We respect the hell out of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, but we don't respect that defense. And we see the pieces that Miami has an offense. They could get Waddle right in this game. They get Devontae Parker right in this game. This is just a nice match. for this Miami team. So give me those points, Chad.”
TB 45, MIA 17 — Buccaneers beat the Dolphins 45-17; Miami margin -28 vs the +8.5 line, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“So I'm fine with not putting it as one of our best five, but I will still be back in the Panthers. It just feels like a professional trap for the Eagles this week. I think it opened at four and a half, five, and now it's only down to three and a half. So the pro money is coming heavy on it. A little bit like they're overlooking the major issues on this Eagles team. So I can't hate it because they literally just played Dallas and then they just played since Kansas City Chiefs. So, of course, you would see the Eagles bouncing back here. This is just a bet on Carolina team. They play great at home and I like them in this position. So I'm still still betting Carolina.”
PHI 21, CAR 18 — Eagles beat the Panthers 21-18; Carolina margin -3 fails to cover -3.5, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“we're taking the bangles plus three against the packers everything lines up here”
GB 25, CIN 22 — Packers beat the Bengals 25-22 in OT; Cincinnati margin -3 exactly matches the +3 line, so the spread bet pushed (ESPN).
“Everything says bet the Giants plus seven. We're going to do it. We set it to Simon Says bet. Stick with it.”
DAL 44, NYG 20 — Cowboys beat the Giants 44-20; New York margin -24 vs the +7 line, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“sense 49ers we got a cardinals team hyped up to the you know the highest of highs cardinals either going to blow this team out and the 49ers or 49ers are going to win this game so let me fade the hype train. Love, love, love divisional matchups like this. We got a rookie quarterback playing in Trey Lance. So the Cardinals really aren't going to know how to defend this guy, prepare for him. Give it to me. That's a big number plus 190 on the money line right now. That's right. So that could be our fourth leg. And then I'm sorry to do it. I'm sorry to do it to you people, but we have to do it because it's a home dog value. Give me the Jacksonville Jaguars money line. They haven't won. I think they're going on 19 or 20 weeks. I will keep losing money, betting their home money line, but this is what I have to do.”
All five moneyline legs lost outright in Week 5 2021: Buccaneers beat Dolphins 45-17, Titans beat Jaguars 37-19, Patriots beat Texans 25-22, Packers beat Bengals 25-22 (OT), and Cardinals beat 49ers 17-10, so the round robin parlay lost (ESPN).
“I just gave them out a 20 to one to win the Super Bowl.”
Dallas Cowboys did not win Super Bowl LVI; the Los Angeles Rams defeated the Cincinnati Bengals 23-20 on Feb 13, 2022, so the +2000 futures ticket lost (ESPN).
“won't have this is our best five but I'm gonna wake up I'll take the dog the Jets are horrible Atlanta's horrible even though Atlanta did look better last week um they played that Washington game tough. I just, man, I can't back this Atlanta team. They just have so many issues going on right now. So I'll just be the chalky play. I think the public's coming in heavy on the jets. I'll ride with them. I'll take the plus three and a half.”
ATL 27, NYJ 20 — Falcons beat the Jets 27-20; Jets margin -7 vs the +3.5 line, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“But I have no problem taking Miami plus 10 and a half right now.”
TB 45, MIA 17 — Buccaneers beat the Dolphins 45-17; Miami margin -28 vs the +10.5 line, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“I bet a little on the Miami money line.”
TB 45, MIA 17 — Buccaneers beat the Dolphins 45-17, so the Dolphins moneyline bet lost (ESPN).
“They had a bunch of just really bad plays by another than Jared Goff. So, yeah, if this day is above seven, we'll be in on it. But this is one of the rare times where I like taking road divisional teams, taking their money lines. I probably won't do lines here just because I don't think they know how to win. They seem like that team that just does not know how to win. So I won't take lines money line, but I will be taking a seven and a half. It's a great point. I I want the Lions to be better than they are.”
MIN 19, DET 17 — Vikings beat the Lions 19-17; Detroit margin -2 covers the +7.5 line, so the spread bet won (ESPN).
“Again, they stole that game from the Seahawks. I'll keep fading them. I'm happy to keep fading the Tennessee Titans here. I'll be on an island. This is literally the emphasis of pros versus Joes. Only professionals will be taking this plus four on the Jaguars because this easily could be 14-0, one minute in with the Tennessee Titans. But I have to bet a home dog in a divisional game like this, Chad. And, you know, everything you said is right.”
TEN 37, JAX 19 — Titans beat the Jaguars 37-19; Jacksonville margin -18 vs the +4 line, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“from betters here oh sorry to do it shot i have to fade the bears here we've seen a pattern when the Bears starting to develop. They're shit on the road and they're good at home. They're on the road. They're playing against a team that has one of the best home crowds now in football, the Las Vegas Raiders. I hate doing it. So chalky, but I'm going to be riding with the public. I'm going to be taking the Raiders this week. I had this number at six. I loved when it opened. I thought you were getting good value. I still think you're getting pretty good value, but like you just talked about, that hurts the early line movement. The pros came in, they ate that number up. Now it's up to five, five and a half of certain books. not loving it at that value, but I still would have no problem taking the Las Vegas Raiders to that spot.”
CHI 20, LV 9 — Bears beat the Raiders 20-9 outright; Las Vegas failed to cover -5.5, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“All right, this is one of my favorite games of the week. Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers. This game opened Browns minus one and a half. It is now Chargers minus one. Simon, I don't want to hear about it. If you're not going with the Chargers in this game, you and I have to go against each other.”
LAC 47, CLE 42 — Chargers beat the Browns 47-42; Los Angeles margin +5 covers the -1 line, so the spread bet won (ESPN).
“simon says take the giants plus seven and a half you're getting an overinflated cowboys team”
DAL 44, NYG 20 — Cowboys beat the Giants 44-20; New York margin -24 vs the +7.5 line, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“going against either of these teams. But the smart side to me will just be taking Mahomes under a field goal at home. And that's why I have to do it. I mean, if you get Chiefs minus two and a half, then you should, if you can only get three or three, if you can get three, you stay away.”
BUF 38, KC 20 — Bills beat the Chiefs 38-20; Kansas City failed to cover -2.5, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“But I don't want to take the Eagles here. I get it. But as anyone listening to this, you have to take, if you have seven and a half in your pick pools or whatever, you have to take the Eagles. This is, everything about this is why we fade the Chiefs. They always get backdoor. This is a typical backdoor game. They don't have their run game to melt the clock away. Mahomes is going to be taking deep shots all night. So, again, if this game is, you know, the Chiefs are up 24 to 10 or 21 to 10, I honestly will feel comfortable when Hurts has the ball thinking I'll be able to get a backdoor. But for this in our contest, maybe maybe we'll take the week off because like you just said, holy hell, are the Chiefs overdue to cover a game? One in 11 ATS, their last 12. They are so overdue. So I've made all my money on fading them, especially early on the season. I'm cool taking a week off in our contest and not going against them. So I will be on the Eagles, but I will not be I will not be putting this in our contest. It's an interesting question about when do the patterns start to be things that you fade versus things that you bank on?”
42-30 — Chiefs beat Eagles 42-30; Philadelphia lost by 12, busting the +7.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Panthers plus four and a half against the Cowboys. This was our Simon Says bet like the Bengals the week before. On Tuesday, you Simon Says this, which means that we must bet it. I did bet it at four and a half.”
36-28 — Cowboys beat Panthers 36-28; Carolina lost by 8, busting the +4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I also bet a little bit of a taste, half a unit on the Panthers money line.”
36-28 — Panthers lost 36-28 to the Cowboys; the Carolina moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I've already bet the Jets on the money line.”
27-24 — Jets beat Titans 27-24 in OT; the New York moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Ooh, each, Chad. The numbers move down, by the way. Opened eight and a half, now it's seven and a half. And you know you have to bet the Eagles here. You have to bet the Eagles. This is typical embarrassment on a primetime game.”
42-30 — Chiefs beat Eagles 42-30; Philadelphia lost by 12, busting the +7.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Go bet the Panthers plus four and a half.”
36-28 — Cowboys beat Panthers 36-28; Carolina lost by 8, busting the +4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to have a decent amount invested on the money line of Carolina.”
36-28 — Panthers lost 36-28 to the Cowboys; the Carolina moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I mean it moved from 47 and a half to 53 and a half. Yeah. So I got a 48 and a half.”
14-7 — Browns beat Vikings 14-7; the combined 21 points busts the Over 48.5 (ESPN box score).
“with the Jets and I'm that guy. I promise you right now, I won't put this on convincing me because I feel so terrible at the Jags, but this is one of my favorite bets of the week, the Jets plus seven and a half. Jesus Christ. Something's got to knock some of these people on the survivor contest. There's going to be some crazy upsets. This has to be one on the board.”
27-24 — Jets beat Titans 27-24 in OT, covering New York +7.5 by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“Pretty close. Take the points. Take the money line. This is like one of my favorite upsets of the day. Jets are winning this game. I don't know how. Nothing makes sense. Love, love, love, love, love, love, love, love, love the Jets in this position.”
27-24 — Jets beat Titans 27-24 in OT; the New York moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“has changed in this fact uh six and a half it's a great number i was hoping to go back to seven That's what a lot of the pros hit it at. Still, we love the sixth and a half. A divisional game that we've seen it with the Chiefs defense. They can be run on at will. And this team with the Chargers, you can say what they want. That offensive line is pretty good. They're going to be able to run the ball against this weak Chiefs front. So we're expecting a very close game here, Chad. And the fact that it's two points higher than what it should be, just because it is the Chiefs, this is why the Chiefs keep not covering, because the Lions keep getting bumped up this way. So we're going to keep riding this trend and we're going to take the chargers here. Yeah, there's a pretty specific pattern here.”
30-24 — Chargers beat Chiefs 30-24 on the road, covering Los Angeles +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Chargers plus six and a half against the Chiefs. I love this game.”
30-24 — Chargers beat Chiefs 30-24 on the road, covering Los Angeles +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“and on top of that the Cardinals defense is one of the you know worst graded defenses this year they can be run on huge gaping holes for that team especially last week against Alvin Cook so it's a game we think Robinson will get right and Trevor Lawrence he won't turn the ball over as much seven and a half it's too big of a number this Cardinals team should not be favored by that much so yeah we could look like idiots come next week when the Jaguars get blown out again but I have to as a professional bet this number but I'm not I'm not going to make you make our best five, Chad. Don't worry. No, it is a hundred percent the sharp play only because when a team is this big of an underdog at home, you historically have to bet it. And the Cardinals, I think a lot of professional betters, they look at these games and think the Cardinals are suspect. They think a, they can't trust Cliff Kingsbury. We know this. Matt Mitchell knows this. He's done his Cliff Kingsbury rant.”
31-19 — Cardinals beat Jaguars 31-19; Jacksonville lost by 12, busting the +7.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“now that's down to seven, I I'm happy taking the [22:40] bills here.”
43-21 — Bills routed Washington 43-21, covering Buffalo -7 (ESPN box score).
“again i don't want to hate on their car too much we talked about i like their car coming to the year i i thought this guy could lead the league in uh passing but two weeks he's people's mvp now's the time we fade derrick carr so yes give me the four and a half give me the four public's coming in so heavy on the raiders uh las vegas raiders now i think are getting over 85 of the bet so we're we're happy in our position right now taking the four and a half what's interesting is the uh yeah it's 81 percent of the bets are on the las vegas raiders uh with”
31-28 — Raiders beat Dolphins 31-28 in OT; Miami lost by 3, covering the +4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“bet too much money already on the Rams. And it's like, oh my God, why am I going against Tom Brady like this? What am I doing? Like, can I just avoid this game? Everything points to the Rams. Like we talked about on Tuesday, but this is just a classic where I'm like overthinking it too much where it's like, okay, the Rams, who'd they beat? They beat the bears with Andy Dalton. And then they'd be like, you hated on Carson Wentz and the Colts. It's a little nerve wracking, but at the same time, I have to trust my system, trust these numbers. And it's like, okay, the Rams are up to plus two, plus two and a half. If they get to three, I'm going to have way too much money bet on this Rams team as a home dog. The Buccaneers are just so incredibly overvalued. Aaron Donald, if he can get one shot on Brady, that might be all she wrote for the Buccaneers this season. I mean, this guy, this is the exact reason you take the Rams. I know that the Henderson injury is a big deal for them at running back, but they also still have Sonny Michelle there. I can't make us put it as one of our five, so it's going to be up to you on Sunday. But yes, people, I will be back in the Rams.”
34-24 — Rams beat Buccaneers 34-24, covering Los Angeles +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“going to do that in a second. We like the chargers a lot. We like Miami a lot. I feel like we just decided to throw the Eagles in there too. No, we talked, we talked, we said, we talked that we liked them on Tuesday. We just said we don't do Monday games, but I think we have to suspend that rule. We have to get out of our comfort zone right now. Our favorite five, we're only four and six and we've got some bad beats in there. I think we need to have as many games as possible to choose from. If we like this number, we got to go for it. And if it means I have to stay up a little bit later on Monday night, I'll just deal. All right, my man. So Chargers, Miami and Eagles. Oh, my God. We're walking down a very ugly road. I love that. Those are three road teams. That's so unlike us. We usually always take home teams. Three road dogs right now. Even though every fiber of my being says the Packers, I think the Niners are coming into pole position here. So it's really going to come down to the Niners, Rams, and Vikings, unless the Bengals go back to three and a half. So we will update everybody Sunday morning. Simon and I will decide what the final five are. We definitely like the Chargers plus six and a half. Miami plus about four, four and a half. The Eagles plus four.”
41-21 — Cowboys beat Eagles 41-21; Philadelphia lost by 20, busting the +4 spread (ESPN box score).
“we take we take the eagles plus four year every time”
41-21 — Cowboys beat Eagles 41-21; Philadelphia lost by 20, busting the +4 spread (ESPN box score).
“upset spot so it'll be rare for me to do the chalky plays but i'm gonna take this one here carolina i'll take the minus seven and a half i made this number eight yeah it's a it's a look i love this carolina team”
24-9 — Panthers beat Texans 24-9 in Houston, covering Carolina -7.5 (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, I hit the bills right when it came out with a seven”
43-21 — Bills routed Washington 43-21, covering Buffalo -7 (ESPN box score).
“So four and a half in a divisional game when this number should just be three, I really like the Bengals here, Chad. So this for me is my Simon Says play of the week.”
24-10 — Bengals beat Steelers 24-10, covering Cincinnati +4.5 (ESPN box score).
“And I jumped on this at four and a half just for that exact reason.”
31-28 — Raiders beat Dolphins 31-28 in OT; Miami lost by 3, covering the +4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I took the money line as well for Miami.”
31-28 — Dolphins lost 31-28 in OT to the Raiders; the Miami moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Love, love, love the 49ers in this position. Congrats, Aaron Rodgers had a big win on Monday night. Everyone's feeling good. Everyone's all happy, having fun with him on Twitter. No, this is when you fade Aaron Rodgers after that kind of win. People talked about how he can't win in Florida. This dude cannot win in California, let alone against the 49ers. He never plays well against the 49ers. We love Kyle Shanahan's run block scheme against this Green Bay's defense who cannot stop the run. Even Detroit is running all over them. man again 49ers they they escaped one last week against the Eagles they definitely should have lost that game but it was all because I felt like this was a good look ahead spot for them and turned out the Eagles were looking ahead towards Dallas because that was like you score three points at home late into the fourth quarter with the Eagles did that's embarrassing this is the other way 49ers they did what they had to do win that game now I mean people are going to be going crazy thinking themselves wow I'm getting Aaron Rodgers plus three and a half on the road here. It's sometimes it feels a little too easy, like the sports books do the work for us. And this instinct feels like that way, where you're getting a good number and the public's coming in very heavy on Green Bay. As long as it stays under four with the 49ers. So if it's going up to minus four, I would still take it, but I wouldn't put in our best five picks. If it stays at three and a half or goes down to three, you can guarantee this would be one of me and Chad's best five picks.”
30-28 — Packers beat 49ers 30-28 on the road; San Francisco lost outright, busting the -3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“OK. There has been nothing I've seen, no reporting, no line movement to make me feel like I don't want to put the Jags in the contest. Jags plus six. The line is way overinflated. Look at headlines, meaning the lines that came out a few weeks ago were two and a half. maybe it's power rated you know three and a half whatever it is I feel like the Jags are still the right side here”
JAX 13, DEN 23 — Broncos beat Jaguars 23-13; Jaguars lost by 10, busting +6 (ESPN box score).
“So I didn't love the money line. I was kind of hesitant to do it cause I just thought this was a good, I had this number at three. So I thought it was a good number at three and a half where you just take Miami in the points, you don't touch the money line. But now the way I think about you, I think you're spot on where this is one of these things where I'm probably gonna take this money line just because the public is coming in so heavy on the bills. It's literally, I think the last I saw was 90% of the tickets and 90% of the money were on the bills at one point. And they're on the road. They're on the road. So Chad knows what I love to do here. Anytime it's under 10% for a home team that's a dog, I go all in and all. So this is one of my favorite bets of the week, Miami.”
MIA 0, BUF 35 — Bills beat Dolphins 35-0; Dolphins lost by 35, busting +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“we like the Eagles plus three and a half. Hopefully you can still get it at FanDuel. That was one of the few books I saw left with the Eagles plus three and a half minus 120. I love the Eagles in this spot. The Eagles will also be in a money line parlay for me.”
PHI 11, SF 17 — 49ers beat Eagles 17-11; Eagles lost by 6, busting +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“to get ahead of. That's kind of why I did it. Like this morning, this morning I did the bears minus two and a half. I think I did the jets plus six and somebody else, because I felt like those lines were actually going to start moving against me.”
CHI 20, CIN 17 — Bears beat Bengals 20-17, covering -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“Bears are dropping. I got them at two and a half.”
CHI 20, CIN 17 — Bears beat Bengals 20-17, covering -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I have bet all of these games that we're talking about already. and feeling very good about him. Jacks plus six, Miami three and a half, Eagles three and a half, Steelers five and a half, minus five and a half.”
PIT 17, LV 26 — Raiders beat Steelers 26-17; Steelers lost by 9, busting -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“And it's looking more and more likely that this is going to be one of my bigger, end up being one of my bigger decisions of this upcoming weekend. where I'm going to have a lot of money tied to Atlanta's money line, even though I saw a terrible statistic. Matt Ryan 0 in his career versus Tom Brady straight up That would include a Super Bowl Indeed So not the best stat I saw the other day I did bet this is definitely in several of my money line parlays And I did take a taste of this on the money line as well.”
TB 48, ATL 25 — Buccaneers beat Falcons 48-25; Falcons moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Seahawks minus five.”
SEA 30, TEN 33 — Titans beat Seahawks 33-30 in OT; Seahawks lost by 3, busting -5 (ESPN box score).
“trust Baker, but we trust that run game. No chance, no chance the Browns lose. This is one of these few ones where I'm feeling pretty good with Survivor. So don't try to be too smart, people.”
CLE 31, HOU 21 — Browns beat Texans 31-21 outright; Browns win the survivor pick (ESPN box score).
“so looking at this game this just feels like a classic divisional game where you take the three and a half of the Giants I know they looked horrible in their game against Denver we talked about that that was kind of like a setup where the Giants haven't had all their pieces there Saquon's still not 100 no one really knows what's going on Galladay that offensive line's horrible I get it.”
WSH 30, NYG 29 — Washington beat the Giants 30-29; Giants lost by only 1, covering +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Chad taking Eagles money line this is an outright win for the eagles here so i am almost 100 positive this is one of our five picks”
PHI 11, SF 17 — 49ers beat Eagles 17-11; Eagles moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“It's three and it hasn't moved, which is making me a little scared where it's like, OK, if I have to pick a side, I'm going to take the home team and the Bears here when it's three where this this game's a coin flip. But the no movement, the Vegas might be telling you we have a trap here and the Bears are going to win this pretty easily. but the numbers say otherwise with Joe Burrow, he's seven, two and one, I believe is a home as a road dog in his young career. So against the spread, I would normally take the bears, Chad, but because of your voodoo with the bears, I guess we can't put them in our five because it's never worked out for us. Whenever we both love the bears, that's when you shouldn't take the bears. So we might be falling into a trap here, but man, minus three with the bears at home with your defense against Joe Burrow. I have to take the bears. I just, That's too good of a number not to take.”
CHI 20, CIN 17 — Bears beat Bengals 20-17; Bears won by exactly 3, pushing -3 (ESPN box score).
“Now it's down to 12 or 11 and a half at certain books.”
TB 48, ATL 25 — Buccaneers beat Falcons 48-25; Falcons lost by 23, busting +11.5 (ESPN box score).
“to even do it because Sean and Stucky both put the numbers in there and they weren't anywhere close to mine, but I did it. I had this at seven and a half with Atlanta. Love the value. Love the money line.”
TB 48, ATL 25 — Buccaneers beat Falcons 48-25; Falcons moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“So give me the Chargers minus two and a half”
DAL 20, LAC 17 — Cowboys beat Chargers 20-17; Chargers lost by 3, busting -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“So people, I get it. I hate it too. It's not going to be one of me and Chad's fives most likely just because it's terrifying going against Patrick Mahomes. It is the most terrifying thing ever. So I, I, I love the plus four, but I'm not going to tell anyone to take the money line here. Cause Mahomes hasn't lost in September and 11 games, 11 straight wins in September for my home. So it's not worth betting against them at this point. So I will not be taking the Ravens money line, but we'll be taking the plus four”
BAL 36, KC 35 — Ravens beat Chiefs 36-35; Ravens won by only 1, covering +4 (ESPN box score).
“Let's go, Chad. You know I love the Chiefs. The hookmakers make traps for professionals. This feels like a trap game where they're trying to get you to take Cleveland. They're trying to sucker people in here and to buy into the hype. And I'm trying to fade that noise. So, again, under six now, five and a half. I love, love, love the Chiefs. Andy Reid in September is on a 16-0 streak.”
KC 33, CLE 29 — Chiefs beat Browns 33-29; Chiefs won by only 4, busting -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“We like the Washington football team plus one.”
WSH 16, LAC 20 — Chargers beat Washington 20-16; Washington lost by 4, busting +1 (ESPN box score).
“We're literally taking a team everyone hates in Pittsburgh. All you hear about it, how old Ben Roethlisberger is, how bad this O-line is. Playing against everyone's favorite team, the sweethearts of the NFL. Everyone's all in on Josh Allen MVP. Everyone's all in on the over of the Bills win total, 11 and a half, 12. Everyone's all in on them winning the division. They have them coming in second or winning the AFC. I do like the Bills. I think they're a good team, but regression is a good team. of the game. So this is a trip up spot here. So big ball is better than week plus six and a half. Give me Pittsburgh chat.”
BUF 16, PIT 23 — Steelers beat Bills 23-16, covering +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“But that's like a less than a five percent chance of happening. Just by the math, if they play this game 100 times, we're going to be winning this game over 70 percent of the time. So just off that alone, we probably want to take the Rams here, just get it out of the way, because in that division, it doesn't feel like we're going to have that many opportunities to be taking the Rams. So for survivor contest, I know it's it's it's pretty scary that we're taking a Sunday night primetime game, but we just need him to win. We don't need him to cover seven and a half. We just need him to win. So I like the Rams here, that number.”
LAR 34, CHI 14 — Rams beat Bears 34-14 outright; moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“I went in on the Panthers at minus four this morning”
CAR 19, NYJ 14 — Panthers beat Jets 19-14, covering -4 (ESPN box score).
“weird here and we like doing money line parlays so again these things won't make sense but they hit it's crazy to say but these things hit last year i had the jaguars and washington football team i think it was 17 to 1 um because i believe the jaguars were a 10-point underdog and washington was a 7 underdog um playing the eagles last year that hit that paid literally 17 to 1 So my favorite long shot Moneyline Parlay this week a couple of different ones but I really like Detroit with Pittsburgh and or you pair it up with Oakland which plays on the Monday night because again Yeah, Vegas. Sorry. I'm so sorry. It's one of these things where I like hedge out opportunities. So it's it's one of those where, you know, I might throw the Chiefs and Bucks in with a parlay with Las Vegas money line and I can just hedge it out Monday night football. So different things like that. It's it's all about giving yourself an extra out. So that's what I like to do with these Moneyline Parlay's. I like taking long shots that I can hedge out that I can hit that middle number no matter what.”
Parlay busts: Lions lost 41-33 to the 49ers (Lions ML fails) while Steelers beat the Bills 23-16 (Steelers ML cashes) (ESPN box scores).
“They're pretty much giving you a gift if you take the Seahawks. So whenever the sports folks are giving me a gift, I usually go the other way. So that's why I'm on the Colts this week. Meaning you've already made a bet on the Colts at plus two and a half. Bet them two and a half, put them in a teaser or two, which is funny because I was actually on the other way. I was on it. I had a Seahawks teaser, but it got knocked out because the Green Bay game got moved, but I'm just trying to play value. And if I have this game at a pick and it's plus two and a half, I have to take that number with the Colts. You said the bookmakers are begging”
SEA 28, IND 16 — Seahawks beat Colts 28-16; Colts lost by 12, well beyond +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“And I still actually had this at three and a half and it's moved down at a couple of different books down to minus three. But for me, the easier playing this game would just be the over. I can see Atlanta themselves putting up 40 points, but I also see this Eagles offense being better than people give them credit for it. Because again, the Eagles are healthy right now. Their whole offensive line is healthy. They have weapons of their wide receiver position. They have, you know, you can say what you want about Zach hurts. He's a pretty damn good tight end. They got Dallas Carter, the other tight end, pretty good tight end. And they have miles Sanders running back. So the safer play to me feels like it's the total. We just take the over, but I like the line as well for Atlanta. It's a fair number. So I am taking the minus three and a half, But I just wouldn't force into our contest because it just feels like there's better lines out there.”
ATL 6, PHI 32 — Eagles beat Falcons 32-6; Falcons lost outright, busting -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“know it's no big deal it has to be wearing on this guy so just from a standpoint of I like what Detroit has on offense you know I like Swift I like Hawkinson I think golf in this kind of situation and behind that O-line can surprise some people again I'm not saying Detroit's going to be a 500 team this year. But for first game of the year at home as a home dog, seven and a half points, man, this is an incredibly inflated line. Like we talked last week, I had this line at five, two and a half points of value. This is one of my bigger bets of the week. So I'll be on the seven and a half and also be put there on this money lining with a couple other bets. So I'm a big, big, big Detroit believer this upcoming weekend. Wow. Money line. I've already circled it. I”
DET 33, SF 41 — 49ers beat Lions 41-33; Lions lost by 8, busting +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm more than happy to put this in our contest at plus six and a half.”
BUF 16, PIT 23 — Steelers beat Bills 23-16, covering +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“I also have to take Pittsburgh's money line here.”
BUF 16, PIT 23 — Steelers beat Bills 23-16 outright; moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Um, yeah, exactly what you just said. And you read in September, you just back them. And we joke all the time. This counts as Andy Reid after a bye week, doesn't it? I mean, he's had two weeks to prepare for this team. So love it. This is one of these where the Bucks already talked. I'm going to take their money line with a couple of teams. This is one of the teams I'm pairing it with. Bucks money line with the Chiefs money line. This is one of my bigger bets of the weekend. So I just, I get the hype and the love for Cleveland. This is just an awful matchup in Arrowhead first week of the year. It's just way too much for me to back Baker to go against my homes in this kind of situation. So I am a Browns believer in this upcoming season, but not. In this game, I would take this up to minus seven. So I think you're getting good value here at minus six. But is that a put it in the contest kind of thing? Like, is that half point enough given the other games that are still left on the board and the other ones that we've been talking about? This would be. I'd add it to the list. Definitely. Minus six.”
KC 33, CLE 29 — Chiefs beat Browns 33-29; Chiefs won by only 4, busting -6 (ESPN box score).
“No means we were going to love to take New Orleans here. This was going to be such an easy bet for us. A home dog. No one believes in them. New Orleans at home in that city with all those fans. But now we have a neutral site game. And are you telling me that the Superdome is only worth one and a half points? No, that doesn't make sense. I don't know why I only went from two and a half to four. To me, this line should be six and a half, seven. Right. So I think we're getting major value here on Green Bay. making me a little nervous. It feels like maybe the sports books know something, or maybe they're laying a little trap, but I'm stepping right into it. This is one of those, again, I paired with the money line where I already told you I did the Bucs and the Chiefs. I have a bunch of Chiefs, Green Bay, Green Bay and Buccaneers money line bets as well. So it's one of these things where I just can't see a scenario that Green Bay loses this game. They have, if not more talent on the defensive side now, because, again, New Orleans, people don't understand. Their defense has actually been one of the better things about them the last two, three years. They have a lot of injuries on that defensive front right now. So, again, everything just points to this really being a train wreck kind of season for the Saints. And starting off the year, Winston with this offensive, not question marks, but I know that they have a great offensive line, and I know they have Kamara. But the other aspects of this team, it just frightens me. And Green Bay biggest weakness is they can be run on So maybe that why this number is so low But I drinking the Kool I taking Green Bay here I riding with the public again where I have to take this number at this exact time because I just think it just incredibly undervalued Do we think we potentially adding this to the contest We could be, but again, it's going to be one of these hard things where it's like, you know, I don't like having more than two or three favorites in our contest. Like it served us well last year. We were kind of dog heavy and that really worked out for us last year. So I do love the number. I'm just worried it's going to keep running up that by the time it gets the contest, it might be minus five, minus six. Well, look, we can evaluate, right? We've got”
NO 38, GB 3 — Saints beat Packers 38-3 at the neutral-site game in Jacksonville; Packers lost outright, busting -4 (ESPN box score).
“I get to love the excitement, especially that Miami is kind of one of these teams where people are so insured up to a, but two has already gone through everything. Mac Jones is gonna be going through this year, the growth and the fault, like the fault of a rookie quarterback. So the fact that this line isn't a pick, I'm getting a plus number taking the money line here with Miami. I love the value on Miami, but again, this is one of these I wouldn't put in the contest cause it's a little, it's a little scary chat with two here because we're kind of stepping off into the deep end where it's like we're gonna know pretty quick if two has got it or not because last year was just a wash for the kid he was coming off a major hip injury didn't really know the offense no excuses now two has had a whole off season he's got a ton of weapons around him this is really gonna be a statement game for miami so i am a believer in miami but not a believer enough to put them in the contest All right Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams”
NE 16, MIA 17 — Dolphins beat Patriots 17-16 outright; moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“[38:53] 16 to 1 conference. [38:55] Go.”
The Bengals won the AFC Championship (27-24 OT over the Chiefs) to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVI; the Chargers missed the playoffs at 9-8, so this futures pick lost (Wikipedia, 2021-22 NFL playoffs).
“To me, all the science points are the Chargers being a value in this division, where if you want to bet them to win a division, I love it.”
The Chiefs won the AFC West at 12-5 in 2021; the Chargers finished 9-8, so this futures pick lost (ESPN standings).
“The Chargers are one of those teams where I have bet them at 33 to one a little bit longer actually to win the Superbowl I have bet them at nine I bet them over nine for their season win total”
Chargers finished the 2021 regular season 9-8, exactly matching the 9-win total, so the over pushed (ESPN schedule).
“not here to say that yeah they're gonna win this division they're gonna make the playoffs I'm here to talk about the different things you can find value in Derek Carr right now again we have an article coming out either this week or next week with my favorite long shots he's 38 to one to lead the league in passing yards I kind of like that value Derek Carr plays an indoor for Las Vegas for half his games and then on the road a lot of these teams he's playing against don't have that great of defenses and they're playing a last place schedule as well so I'm not saying Derek Carr is a top 10 quarterback any measurement I think this guy has enough talent and there's gonna be enough pieces there that he could lead the league in passing at 38 to 1 that's really good value and I would take that chance”
Tom Brady led the NFL with 5,316 passing yards in 2021; Derek Carr finished with 4,804, so this futures pick lost (ESPN passing leaders).
“Even week one, I got the Miami plus three.”
17-16 — Dolphins beat the Patriots 17-16 in Week 1 2021, covering the +3 as home underdogs (ESPN box score).
“I like the Rams.”
The Rams won the NFC West at 12-5 in 2021, so the futures pick cashed (ESPN standings).
“I like the Seahawks.”
The Rams won the NFC West at 12-5 in 2021; the Seahawks finished 7-10, so this futures pick lost (ESPN standings).
“I going to be on Green Bay at minus four week one”
38-3 — Saints beat the Packers 38-3 in Week 1 2021; Green Bay lost outright, busting the -4 spread (ESPN box score).
“I cannot see them getting over eight and a half wins in this division This is one of the bigger under bets I made this season”
Cardinals finished the 2021 regular season 11-6, well over the 8.5-win total, so the under lost (ESPN standings).
“so, do you start piling in to the Colts at over nine? Yeah, it's actually at eight and a half at certain books, but I believe you're talking about FanDuel, our sponsor. So yeah, it's at nine there. Yeah, man, I'm one of those where I like to just try to get an edge on other people where, Like I told you, you're the same mentality. You saw Carson Wentz have the worst year ever last year. And what I'm betting on is this guy is switching it up, moving back to the Midwest, you know, like a whole new scenery, which, again, people that play sports, you know how it's just so much mental. So much that goes into what you do in your craft is mental because like Darius can tell us, man, these guys are all the best of the best. The difference between the best player in the league and the worst player, it's not that much physically, but mentally it's huge. Like the best guys are just so much smarter than the other guys. So when I'm looking at a guy like Carson, I saw that his best career year was under Frank Reich as his offensive coordinator. So again, I'm looking at a guy who could have won MVP. His team was the number one seed, went to the Super Bowl, and won with a different quarterback. To now that he's back with that same head coach with the Colts, where, again, we can debate about the Eagles' talent against this Colts team. This Colts team is unbelievably talented from the defensive side and the offensive line, both the D-line and offensive line is up there. And for me, I just love the value of this division where everyone's going to come and everyone going to be talking about the Titans Everyone really high on the Titans But we just seen it time and time again Chad the turnover rate in the NFL These same teams don win the same division every year in and out So for me, loving this win total so much is just because of this division. Like, I have them sweeping Houston. I have them sweeping the Jags. So right there, that's four wins. And I get people's concerns about Carson Wentz coming back right now. But to me, the guys are already back in practice. Two weeks to get right. Maybe he'll be a little sloppy against the Seahawks week one. But I just see this thing going to get on a roll here. So for me, I've adjusted back complete to where I was, where I'm back all in on the Colts because I think Carson's got the reps in right now.”
Colts finished the 2021 regular season 9-8, exactly matching the 9-win total, so the over pushed (ESPN schedule).
“That's like one of these things where they're a home dog plus three week one. I'm going to be betting the Houston Texans, even though I'm about to shit on them for the next 10 minutes. So it's definitely one of these things where I have to separate myself from being a fan and just look at the data. And man, it is ugly. It is crazy how bad this team is. They literally have eight running backs all of whom you heard of but most of them are probably about 25 to 30 years old which is not that big of a deal but it just shows that this team isn structured right where it like why do you guys have nine veteran running backs? Why don't you just draft one or two guys and have one veteran in there, show them the way. And it's just a really weird, organized, structured team. So I'm with Darius though. I love Tyrod Taylor. I just think he's a constant pro. And it's again, one of these things where week one, if I'm going to take this shitty ass roster, but it's Tyrod Taylor going against a rookie quarterback and a rookie head coach against the Jaguars week one, give me the plus three, Chad. So it's one of these where I'm taking their season win total under. But week one, people take Houston plus three. That's such an easy, easy bet week one.”
37-21 — Texans beat the Jaguars 37-21 in Week 1 2021; Houston won outright as home dogs, easily covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“And after talking with Brett, I'm betting Nebraska under six wins at even money.”
Nebraska finished the 2021 regular season 3-9, well under the 6-win total (ESPN schedule).
“So for me, it's definitely a value-based bet here taking Atlanta to win this division of plus 700.”
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the 2021 NFC South at 13-4; the Atlanta Falcons finished 7-10, so Atlanta did not win the division (ESPN standings).
“atlanta getting a super bowl that's the next regime but i do like what they're doing for this year alone all right so eight to one god you've got me told seven seven to one you've got me totally convinced that that is the team to bet in the nfc south again value the best value tampa one to two uh new orleans three to one atlanta seven to one carolina ten to one uh the total on um uh atlanta is seven and a half to one if you like them at seven to one to win the division should we also be betting them over seven and a half yeah the win total is interesting they have seven and a half and so does carolina it was kind of interesting where the bookmakers say okay one of these teams isn't is you know probably only gonna win four games you guys have to figure out”
The Atlanta Falcons finished the 2021 season 7-10, under the 7.5-win over total (ESPN standings). (ATL 2021: 7-10)
“seven and a half and so does carolina it was kind of interesting where the bookmakers say okay one of these teams isn't is you know probably only gonna win four games you guys have to figure out which one that is so for me just looking on paper and the coaching staffs again nothing against Matt Ruhl I thought he did a great job there last year they had plenty of tough games especially with Teddy Bridgewater as a quarterback but I cannot do it cannot back Sam Darnold I just I need to see it to believe it I'm one of those people where like I might miss a year I might be late on that But I feel safer betting against it than betting for it. So for them, I'm on the under with Carolina.”
The Carolina Panthers finished the 2021 season 5-12, well under the 7.5-win total (ESPN standings). (CAR 2021: 5-12)
“And with the Buccaneers, I have to bet the under. I mean, it's rare you have a team like Kansas City Chiefs last year. I think they were 14-2. That was crazy. Like, the fact that they won a Super Bowl and then the following year they were 14-2, I think that says more about, again, the division they were in and the kind of stuff they were playing against with the Chiefs, where this year the Buccaneers, they're one of the youngest teams in all of football. Again, they have Tom Brady. Okay, he's a great leader. That defense is incredibly young. The offensive line is very young as well. So for me, if I need to fade a team coming off the Super Bowl, I want to fade a team that's very young. Again, we saw what happened with the 49ers. The 49ers, they made it to the Super Bowl. They completely fell apart the next year because they were a young team. We saw it with the Rams, and they were a young team. They made it all the way to the Super Bowl. They kind of fell apart the following season. So that's what I'm betting on. I'm kind of betting on the overturn of the league and the fact that everyone in their grandmas, we've been on the buck this year. They're just such a hype team because they brought back every single starter. So that's what my job is, people. My job is trying to find value and betting against these kind of things because it happens a lot. These teams, it just does not work out the way people think it's going to work out. So just on value alone, I have to bet the Buccaneers under just because that's such a high number for them. I think it's, what, 12 now for their win total? Yeah, it's up to 12. Yeah, it's too high. So I have to take that under.”
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished the 2021 season 13-4, over the 12-win under total (ESPN standings). (TB 2021: 13-4)
“I did give them out to win the Super Bowl because I believe in their defense”
The Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl LVI 23-20 over Cincinnati; the Miami Dolphins finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs, so Miami to win the title lost (ESPN; Wikipedia).
“Then I'm taking Matt Ryan 38 to one to lead the league in passing touchdowns.”
Tom Brady led the NFL with 43 passing touchdowns in 2021; Matt Ryan threw 20, so Ryan did not lead the league (ESPN stats). (Tom Brady 43 passing TDs (Matt Ryan 20))
“But I think the Panthers go over seven and a half wins.”
The Carolina Panthers finished the 2021 season 5-12, under the 7.5-win over total (ESPN standings). (CAR 2021: 5-12)
“It's one of these where, again, I hate being that guy, Chad, but this is why you hired me. I have to be the person that just stops people's happiness, and I kind of hit them with the truth. And we've seen it time and time again. It's one of my favorite things, too, about the NFL. So there's four teams, right, every year in the conference finals. And we've seen it. History just tells us every time of these four teams, one of them is not even going to make the playoffs. So, again, you can go through it. Maybe every now and then some year, all four teams do make it. But it's just it's just the way it works that one of these teams is going to fall out. So if I just give you the four teams, the Chiefs, the Bills, Tampa Bay and Green Bay, who feels the most likely to fall out? It feels like it's the Bills because they're an unproven team where everything went right last year. Josh Allen went from 40% completion percentage to above 60%. He went from, you know, the 24th, 25th ranked quarterback in NFL to top four in one season. He made that big of a jump. So my job here is to say, what is the most likely thing? And will history keep repeating itself? And I look at this team, there's so many parallels with them and the Eagles. The Eagles, the year they went to the Super Bowl with Carson Wentz, they were the number one seed coming out. Carson Wentz had an incredible season. And we saw what happened the following year. The NFL kind of figured out Carson Wentz a little bit. They kind of figured out the Eagles offense a little bit. The Eagles went nine and seven because everything wasn't as nice and easy as it was the year before. And I think this is the same thing we're going to see with the Bills. The Bills kind of steamrolled their team, like their division last year. They had a couple of coin flip games. I remember that Rams game at home. They should have lost. They ended up winning that one. It's one of these things where a lot of things went right for the Rams last year. I mean, the Bills. And I'm betting on things not to go right. And the fact that they're right now, they're the top three of the highest bet total on overs. Everyone's pounding this over. It opened up at 10 and a half. I've seen some books now at 11, but it's plus like 130, plus 140 to take the under. It's it's been it's been one of the biggest public bets so far this year, their win total. So I have this team grant out 10.2 wins. I love the under here, especially when it's sitting at 11. I think the bills are, you know, I don't hate the value on them for the division because who are they going up against?”
The Buffalo Bills finished the 2021 season exactly 11-6, pushing the flat 11-win under total (ESPN standings). (BUF 2021: 11-6)
“in on the Patriots, but when I ask them, what are they going to do week seven when Cam goes down, and it's Mac Jones coming in, they don't really have an answer. It's like, I'm with them. It feels like it should be the Patriots to be that team. But I've told you many times, I'm so in on Miami just because on paper, this defense, without a doubt, to me, is a top five defense in this league. I think Miami's secondary is easily number one in the league. They have the best corners. They have really good safeties. I'm banking on Tua taking a step up here. And it's just because of the value I'm getting played out. Like, I think the value is good enough to take them a 40 to one or 35 to one in the Super Bowl, where to me, this division, it's it's up for grabs. I know how people feel about the bills, but like I'm trying to explain to them what's more likely, Josh Allen to get this huge contract and then throw for 60 percent again. No, it's not. We've just seen the NFL that choose and spit these guys out. Like I'm trying to explain to people. Carson Wentz team got to a Super Bowl and won. He's on a different team. Jared Goff took his team to a Super Bowl. he's on a different team it's one of these things where your boy Mitch Trubisky kept taking you guys to the playoffs he the backup now to Josh Allen it just one of those just so much turnover that what I betting on it nothing against Josh Allen I believe the hype I think this guy the real deal as a quarterback but I just bet on there being regression because we just seen it time and time again There's just always regression in the NFL.”
The Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl LVI 23-20 over Cincinnati; the Miami Dolphins finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs, so Miami to win the title lost (ESPN; Wikipedia).
“half. Giants at seven or under seven. Definitely like Washington football team over eight. Simon loves the Dallas Cowboys under nine. Raybon likes the Dallas Cowboys over nine wins. Both of you and me like the value on the Washington football team to win the division at plus 230. Simon liked the number better, so he doesn't recommend betting it now. Raybon still likes it. Either way, if you think the Washington football team will lose to the Chargers in week one, that might be a better”
The Dallas Cowboys won the 2021 NFC East at 12-5; Washington finished 7-10, so Washington did not win the division (ESPN standings).
“Bet the under, nine wins for the Cowboys.”
The Dallas Cowboys finished the 2021 season 12-5, well over the under 9-win total (ESPN standings). (Dallas Cowboys 2021: 12-5)
“Raybon Cowboys nine wins. I'm going to actually go over because I think I could still get the push at nine. And I like the fact that they had a bad year last year that brought the number down. I actually think this is a fair number And I feel decently about them going over because of the nine I can still get the push So give me the over But what about this team makes you feel good about them actually getting 10 wins this year Even within the game.”
The Dallas Cowboys finished the 2021 season 12-5, clearing the over 9-win total (ESPN standings). (Dallas Cowboys 2021: 12-5)
“Let's get back to the show. Raybon, Washington football team. Over. The defense is too good. Might not be a Super Bowl team, but definitely a team that can win more games than it loses. I love this team. I love everything about this team. I love Ron Rivera. I love his attitude last year when he decided that Dwayne Haskins wasn't going to be the quarterback for that team. And he sort of said, I owe it to the team to do everything we can to win football games in a division that I think we have a chance to win. And that's exactly what he did. And so, you know, they're going to be competitive. The flip side of that is, if you know you're going to be competitive, you know, you have an amazing defense. Why did you go to sign Ryan Fitzpatrick instead of getting a guy, you know, you can, that can potentially take you to the next level It help you grow even faster I think they going to win over eight games I like them to win division It just kind of a bummer Giants they are at seven wins”
Washington finished the 2021 season 7-10, under the 8-win over total (ESPN standings). (Washington 2021: 7-10)
“unless you're a fan of the Giants uh I would not be betting this over Raybon I'm going under on the Giants. This is a team with a shaky O-line and a below average quarterback. They are well coached. They do have some talent at the skill positions, but this seems to me like a team that is going to blow a lot of leads, maybe lose a lot of close games, but I am not expecting them to get over seven wins. All right. Last one. Philadelphia Eagles, six and a half over under. I bet this”
The New York Giants finished the 2021 season 4-13, well under the 7-win total (ESPN standings). (NYG 2021: 4-13)
“Raybon, Eagles six and a half over under. We're going under six and a half for the Eagles. Jalen Hurts 52% completion rate last year. I think the upside is high but win totals are a bet based on a median projection And I think the Eagles median projection is under six and a half wins I worried about the skill positions Devontae Smith has missed some time Ertz may be traded And I think the O-line will be decent. I think the defense has some question marks as well. And let's not forget, it's a new coaching staff. So I think there's going to be some growing pains in year one for Philadelphia. All right. Let me summarize for everybody. Eagles under six and a”
The Philadelphia Eagles finished the 2021 season 9-8, over the under 6.5-win total (ESPN standings). (PHI 2021: 9-8)
“divisions because the Dallas Cowboys have the shortest odds to win the Super Bowl of any team in the NFC East at about 30 to one. Okay. Then it's the Washington football team at about 50 to one. Then it's the New York Giants at about 70 to one. And then the Philadelphia Eagles are at about 75 to one. Agree or disagree with these odds, Simon, you're up first. Give me your take on the four teams and their Super Bowl futures. Jay, you want to hear a dirty little secret? Yes. I've bet every single team's future Super Bowl odds in this division, except the Cowboys, just because it's one of these things where I'm literally betting on a team right now to win a division, which means they have a home field game in the playoffs at greater than 50 to one odds. I'll take that any day of the week. I don't think the Giants are good at all. I don't think the Eagles are good at all. Washington, we've talked about it. I believe in that team.”
The Los Angeles Rams beat Cincinnati 23-20 to win Super Bowl LVI; Washington finished 7-10 and missed the playoffs (ESPN).
“Best future value for making the college football playoff right now. [11:36] Oklahoma.”
The 2021-22 College Football Playoff field was Alabama, Michigan, Georgia, and Cincinnati; Oklahoma was not selected (Wikipedia).
“group of five power five doesn't matter UCLA over seven I compared this in the Pac-12 podcast to like a buffet I keep going back to the buffet and I want to eat this and I want to eat that and I want to eat this and I want to eat that and those two teams are Utah and UCLA and I'll stick with UCLA on the win total because Utah, I think is going to win the Pac-12 South. They host UCLA, but year four for Chip Kelly, we have the highest retention. Now, think about this. UCLA always recruits at an extremely high level with Chip Kelly, and so does Texas A&M, but Texas A&M has like 30% retention rate of all the recruits that they brought in. UCLA has retained 70%. They've completely taken advantage of this super senior rule. Their defense returns everybody, which is kind of a good thing and a bad thing. They couldn't stop the rush, so hopefully that improves a little bit. But Dorian Thompson Robinson can score on any play, on any yard marker. And yes, I know about the turnovers, and I know that he can be volatile at times but what people aren paying attention to this year is they went out Chip Kelly went out and got San Jose State passing game coordinator And he said passing game coordinator from San Jose State Yeah they turned that program around Remember San Jose State was like undefeated and Nick Starkle was dropping bombs on everybody late at night. And people were like, who the hell is San Jose State? Well, the passing game coordinator is now the quarterback's coach for UCLA, Ryan Gunderson, former Royals award nominee. And if he can trim down just some of the mistakes and the inconsistencies that DTR has, UCLA is a major player in this. I think absolutely they're a contender in the South and I'll take over seven any day. UCLA comes up so infrequently when we talk about college football these days.”
UCLA finished the 2021 regular season 8-4 (their Holiday Bowl vs. NC State was canceled due to COVID-19 protocols), clearing the over 7-win total (Wikipedia). (UCLA 2021: 8-4)
“So Notre Dame [21:22] under nine with that schedule, I'll take it all day.”
Notre Dame finished the 2021 season 11-2, including a Fiesta Bowl loss to Oklahoma State, well over the under-9 win total (Wikipedia). (Notre Dame 2021: 11-2)
“So I will point to a team that I think can absolutely win their conference championship. And that North Carolina and Sam Howell What Sam Howell has been able to do since the day that he was a freshman has shown that he NFL ready He has an NFL arm and we going to find out this year because he loses a couple of explosive weapons that are now in the NFL But I don think it going to matter Mack Brown is recruited just fine They're going to put up serious numbers. They're not going to face Clemson until the last game of the year, right before the Heisman voters have to get that ballot submitted. If I had to take a shot outside of Spencer Rattler, it'd be Sam Howell. And that's who I bet for number one pick. I love doing that bet too. Like future bets using the number one pick.”
Travon Walker was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft (Jaguars); Sam Howell was selected in the 7th round (pick 144) by Washington (ESPN).
“I bet him as well. I just, I love, like I watch his tape. I love that kid. Same to me as the highest ceiling right now for any of these kids coming out next year in the draft. A little added bonus for the draft, just for people to get primed.”
Travon Walker was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft (Jaguars); Sam Howell was selected in the 7th round (pick 144) by Washington (ESPN).
“I have them at 12.5 wins where the Bears, I'm talking about taking their season win total over 7.5. It's because I have them 8.5 wins.”
Bears finished the 2021 regular season 6-11, under the 7.5-win line, so the over lost (Wikipedia). (Bears 2021: 6-11)
“So for right now, I have AFC champion. I have AFC ticket for the Browns at 10 to 1. [36:55] So it's one of those where that's my play right now.”
Browns finished 8-9 and missed the 2021 playoffs; the Cincinnati Bengals won the AFC, so the Browns AFC future lost (Wikipedia). (Browns 2021: 8-9)
“I'm in on Tennessee now, minus 120 for the division on our friends at FanDuel.”
Titans went 12-5 and clinched the 2021 AFC South for the second straight season, so the division future won (Wikipedia). (Titans 2021: 12-5, AFC South champions)
“120 to one Trey Lance to an MVP.”
Aaron Rodgers won the 2021 AP NFL MVP award; Trey Lance did not win, so the MVP futures bet lost (Wikipedia).
“All right BJ give me your pick for Dinger Tuesday Give me one of the best home run hitters in Major League Baseball Vladimir Guerrero Jr who has a tremendous matchup against Gary Richards tonight at plus 260 All right Colin”
The July 27, 2021 Blue Jays-Red Sox game at Fenway was postponed and made up as part of a July 28 doubleheader per ESPN's scoreboard, so the game the Guerrero HR prop was tied to never occurred and the pick voids.
“give me your pick too. Chad, I have a same game parlay between the Astros and Mariners tonight. I like the Mariners on the money line, tied with no runs first inning at plus 290. There's a reason FanDuel Sportsbook is America's number one sportsbook. The app is simple to use.”
8-6 — Astros beat the Mariners 8-6 on July 27, 2021 (Mariners ML leg lost), and Seattle scored 2 runs in the bottom of the 1st on a Kyle Seager homer (no-runs-1st leg also lost), so the same-game parlay busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to jump in and go first because the Braves are one of my, my future recommendations. They are kind of a mess. They don't have a CUNY for the rest of the season, but I still think that they probably have the most talent in this division. You know, when I, when I'm looking at future value, one of the things I look at often is run differential. That's the best predictor of future success. A lot like other sports, you know, you're looking at in the NFL. I know you're looking at points scored and against. And the Braves have the best run differential in that division, even though they're two games under 500. They're at plus 38. The Phillies are minus 22. The Mets are plus 11. The Mets are probably going to win. that division, but the Braves are down to, I think, plus 700 now to win the East. And that number jumped out to me a little bit. I really like Ian Anderson and Charlie Morton in the front of that rotation. There's a lot of shakiness there. I'm not going to lie. I mean, they're two games under 500 for a reason, but I just think that with Freeman, with Albies, with the two pitchers I mentioned, I think there's great value right there going into August. And especially that's a pretty aggressive front office. I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a splash.”
Braves went 88-73 and won the 2021 NL East, so the division future won (Wikipedia). (Braves 2021: 88-73, NL East champions)
“Yeah, I think in the NL, I think it's still the Brewers right now. They're 12 to one, you know, beyond the Giants. And really with the Brewers, they have three of the best starting pitchers in the National League. That is going to cause a lot of problems for all the other teams throughout the playoffs. Corbin Burns, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddie Peralta all have an ERA under two and a half. They have K for nine, right over 10. I mean, these guys are incredible starting pitchers. And then they hand it off to a bullpen that's still one of the best in baseball and has one of the best closers in baseball in Josh Hader. Now their offense hasn't really been up to par, but Christian Yelich was hurt for most of the first half of the season. They just traded for willy a dame so it's going to be a really good team that's going to make the playoffs they're probably going to have you know maybe one or two maybe home field advantage for at least one of the rounds so getting them at 12 to 1 when some teams above them you know are still questioned still might you know only make the nl wild card like the padres or the dodgers i think 12 to 1 still a great price on the Brewers to win the World Series As far as the pennant I actually going to go with the Phillies I think”
Brewers lost the 2021 NLDS to the Braves 3 games to 1 and did not win the World Series, so the future lost (Wikipedia).
“As far as the pennant I actually going to go with the Phillies I think [37:35] the Phillies have the best value at 25 to one to win the NL.”
Phillies finished 82-80, second in the NL East, and missed the 2021 playoffs, so the NL pennant future lost (Wikipedia).
“I think the Blue Jays, I think they're around 20 to one right now to win the AL.”
Blue Jays finished 91-71 and missed the 2021 playoffs, one game behind Boston and New York for the AL wild cards, so the AL pennant future lost (Wikipedia).
“The Rays, I see it [40:28] 14 to one to win the world series.”
Rays lost the 2021 ALDS to the Red Sox 3 games to 1 and did not win the World Series, so the future lost (Wikipedia).
“As far as pennant winners go, I'm with BJ on the Phillies. I would probably, you know, maybe split a unit between them and the Braves who I mentioned early because they're both 25 to one. I just think again talking about the NL West gauntlet and whoever comes out of the East is going to have an easier path I think the Brewers you know they down to plus 525 for the pennant So I don see as much value there in whoever comes out of the East The Mets are 425. And then you've got the Phillies and Braves at 25 to 1 who are longer shots. So I really like that there.”
Phillies finished 82-80, second in the NL East, and missed the 2021 playoffs, so the NL pennant future lost (Wikipedia).
“And in the American League, I'm going to go with BJ on the Blue Jays. I see them at 13 to 1.”
Blue Jays finished 91-71 and missed the 2021 playoffs, one game behind Boston and New York for the AL wild cards, so the AL pennant future lost (Wikipedia).
“long. I think Zerillo early in the season, put out max Muncy at a hundred to one. I don't know what his odds are right now. 25 to one. He's been, he's been the Dodgers best hitter by far. And I think he's got like a four 15 weighted on base average. So if he gets incredibly hot and the Dodgers take over the giants and win the NL West and get the number one seed in the national league, and he's their number one guy, it's not crazy to think that he could hit the MVP at 25 to one right now. I'm doing, I'm putting 200 on it right now.”
Bryce Harper won the 2021 NL MVP award; Max Muncy did not win, so the MVP futures bet lost (Wikipedia).
“The team I'm most comfortable taking under is definitely the 49ers. Just not only because of that division, but because of all the uncertainty at QB position, where I do think that they're going to make a switch eventually to the rookie. and to back a rookie over 10 and a half wins, I just cannot do that. Especially a kid coming out of North Dakota State. It just feels like that's a lot to ask of a kid. I know Shanahan's unbelievable and they were basically if you just look at a metric of the highest injured team last year they were number one They had the most injuries by far So a lot of professionals like them to bump like the bump up this year just on that simple fact But when I look in that division, I just think to myself, I like the Rams better. I like the Seahawks better. And again, we can say we want about Kingsbury, but I feel better about taking Arizona what they have around Kyler than I do taking the 49ers about what they have. So for me, I'm just not drinking the Kool-Aid on the 49ers this year. I just think there's too much hype going into the season on them. So that's an under I really like this year at 10.5.”
49ers finished the 2021 regular season 10-7, under the 10.5-win line, so the under won (Wikipedia). (49ers 2021: 10-7)
“So again, nine wins out of 17 people, nine and eight. That's a push. Like, I just think that's crazy good value on the saints. Well, let me ask you this. Uh, you're saying the saints, you, you actively proactively mentioned them at nine wins. Are they your favorite win total bet, either over or under, for the NFC? I definitely bet this a lot.”
Saints finished the 2021 regular season 9-8, exactly on the 9-win line, so the over is a push (Wikipedia). (Saints 2021: 9-8)
“So looking at win totals, nine wins for the Saints. We talked about it earlier in the year too, Chad. I like them for best record at, I think it was 30-1 or 40-1. And just a really outside shot team that the Saints aren't just going to be getting talked about when people aren't realizing they have all the pieces there. I think that's a team that's really been slept on.”
Saints finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs; the Packers (13-4) and Buccaneers (13-4) had the NFL's best 2021 regular-season records, so the Saints did not have the league's best record (Wikipedia). (Saints 2021: 9-8; Packers 2021: 13-4)
“Chad, what is more fun this year than betting Chicago Bears over seven and a half? you love it. I hate it. It's fun. Okay. For some reason, my, my system had a great 8.1 wins. Oh no. Yeah. Just cause your division, your division's so bad where I had them splitting with the Vikings. I had them splitting somehow with green Bay and I had them sweeping Detroit. So they're one of these teams. They might not do great outside your division, but they're going to play well in the division. There it is. The bobblehead reminder reminder. Thank you to”
Bears finished the 2021 regular season 6-11, under the 7.5-win line, so the over lost (Wikipedia). (Bears 2021: 6-11)
“Justin Fields highlights. I love him. So excited for Justin Fields and his performance. So excited for what the Bears can possibly be. So ready to go all in on the Bears over seven. Come on. Over seven and a half. We got two wins easy against the Lions. Seven and 10? They're not going seven and 10. Come on. Come on. Eight and nine in a 17-game season? That doesn't feel crazy. No.”
Bears finished the 2021 regular season 6-11, under the 7.5-win line, so the over lost (Wikipedia). (Bears 2021: 6-11)
“but I like the Washington football team over eight, eight and a half wins.”
Washington Football Team finished the 2021 regular season 7-10, under the 8.5-win line, so the over lost (Wikipedia). (Washington 2021: 7-10)
“Simon. Yeah, Chad, you know, we're already locked in. We did our Super Bowl futures in February. We did. This is one of the teams that I made you put way too much money on that didn't get Watson. Like I told you, they're going to get Watson. But like you said, I know the whole fits thing, but I will keep going back into it until they get knocked out of the playoffs or don't make the playoffs. This Washington team is that Denver team 2.0 that had Von Miller, where Peyton Manning He had a dead arm. He couldn't throw the ball further than 15 yards. But all you had was just an incredibly dominant defense with offensive weapons around it. And I think that's what we have here in Washington. We have a team with a ton of weapons on offense. Gibson, great running back. Like you say McLaurin great receiver And that defensive line man You literally will not find a better defense line on football this year is this is a Chase Young bet But me and Chad I guess Raheem too We are all in on Washington football team”
Washington finished 7-10 and missed the 2021 playoffs; the Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl LVI over the Bengals, so the Washington title future lost (Wikipedia). (Washington 2021: 7-10)
“but bringing that on the head every year the easiest bet to make is just bet the cowboys under it's a team that will always be propped up because their fan base is so diehard and so loyal they're across the country so even state to state they're gonna be bet up you know regardless of where you live every year guys you bet this under and you bet them not to make the playoffs and it's i mean what is it 25 years if you've been doing it you're up a lot of money year to year so it's just one of those where it sounds very simple but it's just the way it is the pressure everything that goes to being with the Cowboys. It's not even that I dislike Dak. I think he does everything he can to try to put that team in its best position. It's just Jerry. He's just, the way he's drafted for them, like they didn't need another stud receiver. They had a great receiving core, but he couldn't help himself. He had to take a receiver in the first round last year where this kid's incredible. Their defense is by far the worst in football where they should have just been drafting defensive players. So for me, the Cowboys, that will always be a fade. I don't care that it's up to 17 games. It's just one of those where I had them graded out seven and a half. I think I bumped them up to eight once it went to 17 games, and it's still way under nine and a half.”
Cowboys finished the 2021 regular season 12-5, well over the 9.5-win line, so the under (fade) lost (Wikipedia). (Cowboys 2021: 12-5)
“I mean I could give you even worse because I did love I did love Detroit to under five Detroit open under five Now it down to four and a half So it still good value But in no world is Detroit getting over five wins this year Like again them and Houston they are openly tanking this year Both teams are tanking. Like they, I know Campbell, the coach of Detroit can give all these rah-rah speeches and talk about eating people's legs. They're tanking. This is a terrible, terrible team. So that is one of my favorite bets. But like you said, that's not that fun.”
Lions finished the 2021 regular season 3-13-1, well under the 4.5-win line, so the under won (Wikipedia). (Lions 2021: 3-13-1)
“I'm betting Chris Paul MVP.”
Series: MIL 4, PHX 2 — Giannis Antetokounmpo won 2021 NBA Finals MVP as the Bucks beat the Suns 4-2; Chris Paul did not win MVP, so that futures bet lost.
“I'm betting Jae Crowder MVP.”
Series: MIL 4, PHX 2 — Giannis Antetokounmpo won 2021 NBA Finals MVP as the Bucks beat the Suns 4-2; Jae Crowder did not win MVP, so that futures bet lost.
“I'm betting Suns minus 200 to win the series.”
Series: MIL 4, PHX 2 — The Milwaukee Bucks defeated the Phoenix Suns 4-2 in the 2021 NBA Finals, clinching Game 6 105-98 on July 20, 2021, so the -200 bet on the Suns to win the series lost.
“the bills over 10 and a half. To me, one of the easiest things to stare at and say, okay, red flags all over the place, 10 and a half bills. We're talking about a 17 game schedule. Who doesn think the bills are going to get 11 wins this year Everyone does Everyone looks at that bills team They say that an easy bet 10 and a half especially in a 17 games Why wouldn you bet that So every show you're going to listen to, everyone, I'm telling you, they're going to tell you to take the over 10 and a half. Easiest bet looking at this, under 10 and a half for the Bills.”
11-6 — The Buffalo Bills went 11-6 in the 2021 regular season, over the 10.5-win line, so the Under 10.5 futures bet lost.
“And for the Colts, people are already going to know I'm all in on the Colts. I bet them a 10. I bet them a 9.5. I know their schedule is really hard, but I just look at a team that had the corpse we call Philip Rivers leading them in the playoffs. And he made things happen, even though he was not a good quarterback last year. If Carson Wentz can just figure it out, he's soft. I'm not going to lie. That man is soft. He let a rookie come in and take his job. That is a soft man. But Carson should bounce back. He's surrounded by just people that want good for him. Like Frank is a great guy to have coaching you. So for me, everything lines up where I just really like everything that's happening for the Colts. So that's a no-brainer to me to take that over with the Colts.”
9-8 — The Indianapolis Colts went 9-8 in the 2021 regular season, under the 10-win line, so the Over 10 futures bet lost.
“But I feel like the easiest bet, and I'm going to keep saying it the whole year, is just going to be that Houston under. I know it's a really low total, but four and a half, I don't care.”
4-13 — The Houston Texans went 4-13 in the 2021 regular season, under the 4.5-win line, so the Under 4.5 futures bet won.
“I don't know why it's this number. So for me, I just went the other way and I just took them to win the AFC at plus a thousand. I didn't touch this total just because I figured, you know what? I'll take something where I could see them get into the AFC championship. I don't know. Maybe they're going to come in as a wild card at nine or nine and eight, whatever weird number they're going to come in at. There's just something weird about this number as if the Vegas knows something because how is this not double digits? This is a double digit win team. So that's the reason I'm staying away from it. There's just something stinky about it.”
27-24 — The Cincinnati Bengals won the AFC Championship 27-24 (OT) over Kansas City on January 30, 2022, to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVI; the Browns went 8-9 and missed the playoffs, so the +1000 futures bet on Cleveland to win the AFC lost.
“I bet Tua to win MVP.”
Aaron Rodgers won the 2021 NFL MVP award (39 of 50 votes); Tua Tagovailoa received no MVP votes, so the Tua MVP futures bet lost.
“Okay, first things first, I like the Colts. I like the Colts big. I mean, you can take I think it's that it's a 10 juice that positively at plus 115 or you can get it minus you can get it nine and a half minus 150. I think I would rather take the 10. I think. This is a reclamation project for the Colts with Carson Wentz. But Frank Wright has a history with Carson Wentz, like Carson Wentz had his best season with the Eagles. And then also, I think one of the things you got to look at is that Frank White, right, might as well be the quarterback. I mean, he took Jacoby Brissett to seven and nine and they almost made the playoffs. Like he took a Larry Holmes status. Phillip Rivers at the end of his career and they almost beat the Bills in the first round and they probably should have won that game. So I have trust in the Colts. I like their over and say this.”
9-8 — The Indianapolis Colts went 9-8 in the 2021 regular season, under the 10-win line, so the +115 Over 10 futures bet lost.
“Okay. So I'm taking the Tennessee Titans under nine and a half.”
12-5 — The Tennessee Titans went 12-5 in the 2021 regular season, over the 9.5-win line, so the Under 9.5 futures bet lost.
“I just bet on the Clippers I think there actually is pretty good value at plus 400”
Series: PHX 4, LAC 2 — The Phoenix Suns beat the Los Angeles Clippers 4-2 in the 2021 Western Conference Finals, so the +400 futures bet on the Clippers to win the series lost.
“I already have a Bucs to beat Suns ticket from two rounds ago.”
Series: MIL 4, PHX 2 — The Milwaukee Bucks defeated the Phoenix Suns 4-2 in the 2021 NBA Finals, clinching Game 6 105-98 on July 20, 2021, so the bet on the Bucks to beat the Suns won.
“again, I like the upside of Hertz. I think he does have weapons around him. The O-line's really good. You never know. I just think the value is there that, again, on FanDuel, our friends at FanDuel, it's 75 to one right now for him to get MVP. So it sounds crazy. It doesn't make any sense right now. It's the same thing with Lamar Jackson. You're just looking at someone that has high upside that we know they have the ability to do it and they have the weapons around them to do it. So this is simply just a play that I think he has the upside. Could he be benched week six for Nick Mullins or Joe Flacco? That's a possibility, but it's worth the risk of 75 to one.”
Aaron Rodgers won the 2021 NFL MVP award (39 of 50 votes); Jalen Hurts received no MVP votes, so the +7500 Hurts MVP futures bet lost.
“[40:16] plus 220, I love the value there. To end it on the 49ers, again, I told you, I think Jimmy's [40:22] getting traded. So my two bets I've done so far, I bet on Trey Lance plus 240 and I bet on Taysom [40:29] hill plus 220 start for the saints but i i really sharp group came in and they bet on um”
41-33 — Jimmy Garoppolo started at quarterback for the 49ers in their Week 1, 2021 game at Detroit (a 41-33 win on Sept 12, 2021); Trey Lance did not start, so the +240 prop lost.
“I'm not that loud Taysom Hill, but I just think he's going to be better in practice and he's going to do stuff that Sean Payton, just by chance, might start him just for week one. for the first series. And that's all we need, Chad. All we need is they got to start the first snap in the first series. So at plus 220, I really like that value for the Saints. All we need is Winston to have a terrible, terrible preseason and he's back on the bench. So for me at that value, plus 220, I love the value there. To end it on the 49ers, again, I told you, I think Jimmy's getting traded. So my two bets I've done so far, I bet on Trey Lance plus 240 and I bet on Taysom hill plus 220 start for the saints but i i really sharp group came in and they bet on um”
38-3 — Jameis Winston started at quarterback for the Saints in their Week 1, 2021 game vs Green Bay (a 38-3 win, played in Jacksonville on Sept 12, 2021); Taysom Hill did not start, so the +220 prop lost.
“And I actually did take Taysom Hill at a higher number than this. I think I got it around 280, but I think the Taysom Hill, Jameis Winston situation is much closer to 50-50 than people think.”
38-3 — Jameis Winston, not Taysom Hill, started Week 1 for the Saints, a 38-3 win over Green Bay played in Jacksonville on Sept 12, 2021, so the +280 Taysom Hill starter prop lost.
“And the exact same thing with Garoppolo and Lance. So easily I'm on the side of plus 240 with Lance, plus 220 with Taysom Hill.”
41-33 — Jimmy Garoppolo, not Trey Lance, started Week 1 for the 49ers, a 41-33 win at Detroit on Sept 12, 2021, so the +240 Trey Lance starter prop lost.
“I actually made [23:09] this bet earlier in the year and the odds are still good. In my opinion, James Harden's plus [23:12] 900 to be the NBA finals MVP.”
Series: MIL 4, PHX 2 — Giannis Antetokounmpo won 2021 NBA Finals MVP as the Bucks beat the Suns 4-2; James Harden's Nets did not reach the Finals, so the +900 Harden Finals MVP futures bet lost.
“So the first over I love is the Cardinals over eight right now.”
Cardinals finished the 2021 regular season 11-6, clearing the 8-win total (ESPN 2021 NFL standings).
“So I do like the over nine and, you know, a lot of great things to say about their offense. You know, they upgraded their offensive line by bringing in Matt Filer and Corey Lindsay. I love those moves. And then they were able to have Ray Sean Slater fall to them at pick 13. So it couldn't have asked for a better outcome there. Um, you know, they lost Hunter Henry, but you know, I like the Jared cook signing. That more of a short solution I heard rumors that they might bring in Zach Ertz So I not too worried about the loss of Hunter Henry there And you know the coaching change going to Brandon Staley I love that because I can't tell you how many times I bet on the Chargers of the past few years and witnessed Anthony Lynn make some very poor decisions later in the game that cost them. So that's going to be a good change in that regard. Hopefully we can see Derwin James stay healthy this year. I think that's going to be huge for the defense if he can stay healthy. So, you know, I love that. And even factoring in the Aaron Rodgers situation where I'm giving him a 30% chance going to the Broncos, I'm still showing value on this. So if I'm like you guys, and I think that he's going to stay in Green Bay, I would love this even more. So I love the over nine. I have 10 or more wins at 48% chance, eight or fewer at 33% chance. So I love the value at nine here.”
Chargers finished the 2021 regular season 9-8, exactly matching the 9-win total, so the over pushed (ESPN 2021 NFL standings).
“The third team that I like the over is the football team. And, you know, their defense is going to be scary good again this year. They were third in DVOA last year. Chase Young will only get better in year two. But they were, you know, they also brought in William Jackson, which a lot of them play more man coverage. You know, they drafted Jamin Davis, which is another great pick, in my opinion. So the sky's the limit for this defense. But then, you know, bring in Ryan Fitzpatrick and Curtis Samuel. is going to help elevate this offense. You know, this is another total where eight's the most likely number, but there's more value on the over. So, you know, nine or more wins, I'm getting that 51% of the time in my Chad simulation. And seven or fewer wins, 30% of the time. So it's one of those things where I wouldn't be surprised if this pushes at the end of the year, but there's way more outcomes where they clear this number than not.”
Washington finished the 2021 regular season 7-10, under the 8-win total (ESPN 2021 NFL standings).
“I think the Browns had the best offseason, but I love their under. So, you know, when it comes to their defense, that was their issue last year. And I think they made all the right moves by bringing Josh Johnson, Troy Hill, Jadavion Clowney. I think this defense is going to be vastly improved. however you know they went 11 and 5 last year with a minus 11 point differential they played like a 500 football team so it important to remember that this isn an 11 and five team that improved It more like a 500 team that improving They went seven and two and one score games. I think even with an improved defense, they're going to play in a lot of close games. They have a great offensive line, great running game. They're going to play teams pretty close. I don't think they're going to be blowing teams out. Therefore, they're going to have to maintain this one score game luck. And, you know, you can't really control that. So I do think they'll win 10 games this year. I think actually it's very likely they win 10 games. I have that 23% of the time. But you know, under 10 and a half, I have this hitting 59% of the time. Again, this is somebody that's high on the Browns. I love all the moves they made. However, just based on their schedule, everything evening out, I do like the under here.”
Browns finished the 2021 regular season 8-9, under the 10.5-win total (ESPN 2021 NFL standings).
“[34:16] corner what else you got uh so the other one is uh the cowboys under nine and a half [34:22] you know they're coming off a year where they had one of the worst injury luck seasons with [34:27] Dak Prescott um having that devastating injury you know uh he might not be 100 to start the year [34:33] so he could be a bit rusty plus he's already hinting that he's not going to run as much so [34:38] that's going to take that element away from his game so you know while I think they'll bounce back [34:43] this year nine and a half is a pretty big number um and you know i don't know if bringing dan quinn's [34:48] gonna fix their defense they had a very unfortunate draft where i thought they were gonna either get [34:54] jc horn or patrick certaine and neither one fell to them so that kind of ruined their draft They definitely needed cornerback help So while I think they going to be better this year nine and a half is a huge number [35:06] So I have them going under 63% of the time. [35:10] So I love the under here. [35:11] And I think it's being bet up just because, you know, [35:13] the Cowboys are a public team. [35:15] You know, people love to bet the over. [35:17] So I'm just taking the value here on the under.”
Cowboys finished the 2021 regular season 12-5, well over the 9.5-win line, so the under lost (ESPN 2021 NFL standings).
“[37:36] It feels like a trap, but the Raiders under seven. [37:41] And, you know, I do like the moves they made on defense, [37:45] bringing in Yannick Ngakwe, Casey Hayward, and Quentin Jefferson. [37:50] Gus Bradley to be defensive coordinator, [37:53] but I don't know if that's enough to turn this defense around. [37:56] They finished 31st, 31st and 28th in efficiency the past three seasons. [38:01] So that's going to be a problem. [38:03] And then their biggest strength last year was their offensive line. [38:06] And they decided to blow that all up and got rid of three of them. [38:09] Then they brought in Kenyon Drake for two years, [38:12] 11 million to back up Josh Jacobs. [38:14] So they made some interesting moves at, you know, this division. [38:18] And I'm factoring in, you know, [38:20] Aaron Rodgers going to this division at a much higher percent than you guys. [38:24] So that's probably adding a little bit more value on the under. [38:27] But I mean, imagine this division with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Aaron Rodgers, [38:31] and you got this at under seven. [38:34] Even if Aaron Rodgers doesn't end up going to the Broncos, I still like this. [38:38] That's why I'm pulling the trigger now.”
Raiders finished the 2021 regular season 10-7, over the 7-win line, so the under lost (ESPN 2021 NFL standings).
“So the Chargers bumped all the way up to 40-1 on the news that he was – they were at 32-1. They went all the way up to 40-1 because people thought he was going to Denver.”
23-20 — Rams beat the Bengals 23-20 to win Super Bowl LVI; the Chargers finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs, so their Super Bowl futures bet lost (Wikipedia, Super Bowl LVI; ESPN 2021 NFL standings).
“I took them division when it was available.”
Chiefs won the AFC West at 12-5; the Chargers finished second at 9-8, so the division bet lost (ESPN 2021 NFL standings).
“But I just love this Colts team. I mean, we saw what they did with Rivers who retired. So for me, Carson Wentz, I'm buying low on him. I just love the upside of the Colts here. It's 10 wins right now, I believe, is their total. Colts and Panthers, both plus money on the over. Panthers plus 118, Colts plus 110. So a lot of value in both of those plays.”
Colts finished the 2021 regular season 9-8, under the 10-win total (ESPN 2021 NFL standings).
“I people are going to hate it because they think I'm a dire Eagles fan. But Eagles under ran six and a half had a great out of five point seven. I just think that too many people are just falling in love with the idea of Jalen Hurts instead of watching the tape and looking at the numbers of what he did last year, where I think he could be a good quarterback. But I just think of him as what, again, Eagles took him high up, but it's one of those where it was like a Russell Wilson effect.”
Eagles finished the 2021 regular season 9-8, over the 6.5-win line, so the under lost (ESPN 2021 NFL standings).
“plus 3,200 right now to have best record in NFL on FanDuel for the [43:08] Saints. [43:08] I think that's a really good value”
Saints finished the 2021 regular season 9-8; Green Bay and Tampa Bay tied for the NFL's best record at 13-4, so the Saints did not have the best record (ESPN 2021 NFL standings).
“So I rarely would recommend this. And, again, this is on Fandle. You might be able to find better odds elsewhere, but we won't say elsewhere. The Chiefs to go 17-0. I rarely do this, but there are certain books that have them at 40-1. They have them right now 27-1 to go 17-0. I get it. It's a stupid bet. I just love it because I just love Mahomes coming into this year really pissed off. I know their division is really tough. The AFC is really tough. But everything lines up where I could just see the Chiefs. Even Mahomes is talking about it. They asked him what his goal is this year. He said his dream is to go 20-0. That's the goal now for the rest of his life. He wants to go 20-0. So to me, a guy like that motivated, that's the only person I'd be putting that kind of money on.”
Chiefs finished the 2021 regular season 12-5, not 17-0, so the perfect-season bet lost (ESPN 2021 NFL standings).
“round the atlanta hawks and the portland trailblazers and part of why i love betting the team that is the road team is because you get to start out on the road you might steal one of those games, but I love to bet them winning the series in six. I don't want to bet on either one of these teams going to a road game seven and having to win in Madison Square Garden with the crowd going crazy at Denver in the elevation. I don't want to bet on them in five. The series is a little too short for me. It's another road game. Is Trey Young going to go close out Spike Lee and shush him in game five at MSG? I don't know. Maybe we saw it, but I'm not ready to get there yet. game six that's the one you come home you get game six you get those two portland i think was 490 plus 490 to win in six before the series but it's still 300 now atlanta was something like plus 410 it's still plus 300 right now so i love zeroing in on that game six win and getting much better odds on my series prices rather than something of a coin flip so i'm going blazers in six and”
Nuggets beat the Blazers 4-2 in the 2021 first round; Portland did not win the series, so the Blazers-in-6 bet lost (Wikipedia, 2021 NBA playoffs).
“round the atlanta hawks and the portland trailblazers and part of why i love betting the team that is the road team is because you get to start out on the road you might steal one of those games, but I love to bet them winning the series in six. I don't want to bet on either one of these teams going to a road game seven and having to win in Madison Square Garden with the crowd going crazy at Denver in the elevation. I don't want to bet on them in five. The series is a little too short for me. It's another road game. Is Trey Young going to go close out Spike Lee and shush him in game five at MSG? I don't know. Maybe we saw it, but I'm not ready to get there yet. game six that's the one you come home you get game six you get those two portland i think was 490 plus 490 to win in six before the series but it's still 300 now atlanta was something like plus 410 it's still plus 300 right now so i love zeroing in on that game six win and getting much better”
Hawks beat the Knicks 4-1 (five games) in the 2021 first round, not six, so the Hawks-to-win-in-6 bet lost (Wikipedia, 2021 NBA playoffs).
“I've learned my lesson, and as a Sixers fan, I could not be happier. No one's talking about the Sixers. Take the Sixers. I think it's still plus 300 certain Bucs to win the East. Still plus 700 to win it all. Again, if the Nets play the Bucs and the series go six or seven. They come to Philadelphia. Philadelphia wins the first game. They're up 1-0. You'll have a very easy hedge out on the Nets or the Bucs. So to me, I just think it's a ton of value right now in the Sixers.”
76ers lost the 2021 East semifinals 4-3 to Atlanta; Milwaukee (not Philadelphia) went on to win the East, so the Sixers-to-win-the-East bet lost (Wikipedia, 2021 NBA playoffs).
“I bet Matt, I didn't bet you, I bet, comma, Matt Moore, comma, the Lakers at plus 450 when they were basically at their lowest point late in the season. You had an article on actionnetwork.com talking about when to bet the Lakers for the NBA title. Put that in context of the play and game against the Warriors.”
Lakers were eliminated 4-2 by Phoenix in the 2021 first round and did not win the title (Wikipedia, 2021 NBA playoffs).
“next thing i do i do i have a few questions here but i'll start here with golden state 45 to 1 to win the West. Am I an idiot that I bet on that? Because I just love Steph Curry. I just feel like the value is there that he can literally will that team if he can make it into the playoffs”
112-117 — Warriors lost the 2021 play-in game to Memphis 117-112 in overtime, missing the playoffs and the West title (Wikipedia, 2021 NBA playoffs).
“I already took, though, I took Wizards to make the playoffs at plus 450.”
142-115 — Wizards beat the Pacers 142-115 in the 2021 play-in game to clinch a playoff spot (Wikipedia, 2021 NBA playoffs).
“I've been saying it all year I like the Los Angeles Clippers to win the NBA title I think they have two wings and Kawhi Leonard and Paul George who can you know defend they can score They have the best offense in the league. They're the number one three-point shooting team in the league. I think Tyronn Lue is just a huge upgrade over Doc Rivers. I've never really been a huge fan of Doc Rivers, even though he's improved his Sixers roster. But I think they got rid of their biggest liabilities and Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell, who couldn't defend. And we knew they couldn't defend and we knew that they would get picked on in the playoffs. I wasn't as high on the Clippers last year because of those two guys. And they got rid of them. They got rid of Doc. I love this Clippers team. I think if they're healthy, they're going to win the championship.”
Clippers were eliminated 4-2 by Phoenix in the 2021 Western Conference Finals; Milwaukee won the title, so the Clippers futures bet lost (Wikipedia, 2021 NBA playoffs).
“I think if they're healthy, they're going to win the championship. Clippers currently plus 550 to win it all. I did bet on the Lakers last week when they dipped to 450.”
Lakers were eliminated 4-2 by Phoenix in the 2021 first round and did not win the title (Wikipedia, 2021 NBA playoffs).
“My biggest one right now, right now, you can get Pacific to beat the Atlantic. Division versus division in the finals. So that's Lakers or Clippers or Suns to beat either Sixers or Nets in the finals at plus 240. That to me is great value. The Nets are a great team. They're title favorites. I think that there's a number of ways that they can get toppled. I can see the Bucs beating the Nets and then the Sixers beating the Bucs. There's a bunch of outs to that. Meanwhile, if you just don't believe in the Jazz, if you're just like, I do not believe in Utah, which is a pretty defensible position. If you're at our playoff primer on Action Network, then you're in good spot there with Pacific to beat the Atlantic at plus 240.”
Phoenix (Pacific) reached the Finals by beating the Clippers 4-2 in the WCF, but Milwaukee (Central, not Atlantic) beat the Hawks 4-2 in the ECF to represent the East; neither Atlantic-division team (Sixers, Nets) reached the Finals, so the Pacific-over-Atlantic Finals bet could not win (Wikipedia, 2021 NBA playoffs).
“Yeah, I basically, it opened at 15 and a half. And I was like, okay, that's good value. I could see him, you know, the Patriots taking him or some team taking him from that 10 to 15 range. And then all the hype came out about you know Chris Sims came out and said like he was the first one I believe to say Mac was going to go in the three spot And I know he close to Shanahan So of all the people that would know this it is Chris Sims That guy is actually friends with Shanahan. But at the same time, I was like, you know, Shanahan knows he's in the media. I think he might just be trying to have people look one way while he's going another way. So, yeah, man, once it moved to three and a half over under at a plus number, I was just like, in what world is the fifth rated quarterback on almost everyone's big board going to be the third pick overall? They gave up three first round picks to get this guy. And people are comping him to Kirk Cousins. Three first round picks for Kirk Cousins. In what world do we live in? So I'm heavily, heavily bet where I could win these other bets.”
Mac Jones was drafted 15th overall by New England, well over the 3.5 draft-position line and not at pick 3, so the over won.
“And I already talked about pits over five and a half. You can get that some books at plus 250 now. So there's a couple of things I'm betting. Things are going to happen. So I'm betting a crazy good value that they're going to happen that way.”
Kyle Pitts was drafted 4th overall by Atlanta, under the 5.5 draft-position line, so the over lost.
“give me your best bets so again i do weird stuff i'm all about crazy value and looking to be like if i go three for 10 i made a profit in the draft because i just like to bet on weird stuff that happened so right now you can get 50 to one that fields or trey lance will be the second pick overall”
The No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft was QB Zach Wilson (New York Jets), not Fields or Lance, so the bet lost.
“So I'm praying the Bengals take an O-lineman at the fifth pick. And right now you can get plus 200, plus 250 at certain books that they draft an O-lineman. So that's another bet I really like right now.”
With the No. 5 pick, Cincinnati selected WR Ja'Marr Chase, not an offensive lineman, so the bet lost.
“uh my two that i put in um i got decent uh that were uh certain being the first corner um i do feel like he's going to be the first corner because he's just a little not that not that horn isn't valuable but certain is clean like he's clean all the way across the board horn has some there's some issues not off the field but he does have some things that might concern some teams here we go again with talking yourself out of guys but Sertain is clean, nothing to worry about. So I feel like he'll be the first corner.”
Jaycee Horn was the first cornerback drafted, at No. 8 (Carolina), one spot ahead of Patrick Surtain II at No. 9 (Denver), so Surtain-as-first-CB lost.
“I think that I got one best or first D lineman, the Michigan pay. I took him as the first D lineman drafted over Phillips from Miami only because once again, pay is clean. Phillips has a concussion history and concussions scare teams away.”
Jaelan Phillips was the first defensive lineman/edge drafted, at No. 18 (Miami), ahead of Kwity Paye at No. 21 (Indianapolis), so the bet lost.
“This has been fun. So I put some stuff in last week a little bit. Matt, you're making me smile because I took Smith to go top 10. That was one of my – I feel like somebody's got to take him. I know it's going to be hard with that weight. I mean, you are betting against – I mean, he is – history says no. But he was so talented, and I just feel like somebody will take a shot on that talent. But this will be fun.”
DeVonta Smith was drafted 10th overall by Philadelphia, inside the top 10, so the bet won.
“Oh, Elijah Moore, the receiver from Mississippi, to go in the top 32. I put him in a week ago and got good odds at that. Those odds have changed drastically, so I thought that was a good play.”
Elijah Moore was drafted 34th overall (Round 2, New York Jets), outside the top 32/first round, so the bet lost.
“All right. I've got a few. Some of them aren't very sexy, I'll just say. So two of them aren't sexy. One of them I think is a little sexier. One of the ones that isn't sexy, Trevon Morig as the number one safety off the board. You have to pay around minus 400, minus 500 juice on this. So that's a lot. That said, I think he's a lock to be the number one safety. He's going routinely in mock drafts and on big boards you look at. He's going in the 20s and 30s. The two guys who could maybe challenge him, Richie Grant and Javon Holland, they're going routinely in the 40s and 50s. Like the, you have Jamar chase in this class and the edge that he has over other wide receivers. Like, I think that's the edge that Trevon Morick has over these other safeties. This line should be minus a thousand. So to be able to get it at minus 400, you know, you're still laying a lot of juice, but I think there's a lot of value there. He's like 90% or greater to be the number one safety in this class.”
Trevon Moehrig went 43rd overall (Raiders), after Jevon Holland (36th, Dolphins) and Richie Grant (40th, Falcons), so Moehrig was not the first safety drafted and the bet lost.
“Another one, again, it's not sexy. You have to put a lot of juice on it, but under five and a half quarterbacks, like, come on, there are going to be five in this class, but there will not be a sixth. There absolutely will not be a sixth quarterback going in round one. It just will not happen. It's happened once in NFL history. And I bet Jim could say when it was. It was the fantastic 1983 all-time great quarterback class where you had multiple Hall of Famers, Elway, Marino, Jim Kelly, right? This is not that class. There are five guys in it. They're going in round one. But let me put it this way. It's likelier that there are four guys in round one and one of them slips all the way out than that there will be a sixth guy that goes in the first round. There just is not a number six quarterback in this class who is getting anything close to the kind of hype that you see a guy have before he goes into round one I think this is like a 1 chance And even that feels high of a six quarterback going in round one So you bet this at minus 400 minus 500, bet it to minus 2000.”
Five quarterbacks (Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, Jones) were drafted in Round 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft, under the 5.5 line, so the bet won.
“And then the sexier one, the one at plus money. If you look at Washington, they have a couple of pretty big needs. They could go with a tackle. They could go with a wide receiver. And on defense, they could go with a linebacker in the first round. Now, out of the sharp mocks I look at, in over half of them, they're going with a linebacker. But right now, you can bet a plus 200 for them to go with a defensive player. And I think a lot of the books are just thinking that this is an offensive tackle spot right here. But this class, there's not much of a difference between the number four offensive tackle and the number seven offensive tackle. So Washington could easily wait till the second round to get an offensive tackle and off ball linebacker and number 19 like that is the wheelhouse for like three linebackers who could go there. And that could be someone who immediately steps in and is a starter on day one for their defense. So at plus 200, this should be a coin flip. And if you want to be even a little bit bolder, you could specifically bet a plus 300 for them to take a linebacker. And so whether you go plus 200, plus 300, either one of those, I think there's value there. This should be a coin flip and you're getting great plus money. Thank God you gave us something that actually didn't cost us $1,000 to make a bet.”
Washington used its Round 1 pick (No. 19) on LB Jamin Davis, a defensive player, so the bet won.
“Mac Jones train I'm very much on the Mac Jones train and so if Mac Jones goes number three it doesn't matter if I lose all of my other bets, like that will be pretty much what makes the, the weekend for me. So I'm hoping that that happens.”
Mac Jones was drafted 15th overall by New England, not No. 3 (Trey Lance went 3rd), so the bet lost.
“I feel like it a lock to win best film editing at minus 118”
Sound of Metal (editor Mikkel E.G. Nielsen) won Best Film Editing at the 93rd Academy Awards, so the pick won.
“I saw a line out there. They set the over and under at 0.5 for safeties to be drafted in the first round. The kid Grant from UCF and I think Trevin Morag from TCU, both of those guys, one for sure, I think Morag's going to go in the first round. But at minus 250, I think there's enough odds there, even though it's negative, to go ahead and drop money on that and have a decent return. Some of the other ones, I think both Jalen Waddell and Devontae Smith, from what I'm looking at right now, are both plus 100 to over and under to be 11.5. I think you can go ahead and bet on both of those I think one of them will return One of those guys is going to end up you know lower than that 10 and a half number That safety bet I think is easy money I willing to drop heavily on that even though it a negative odd”
No safety was selected in Round 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft (the first safety, Jevon Holland, went pick 36 in Round 2), so the over 0.5 safeties in Round 1 lost.
“football their total right now is four and a half for Houston I like how do you not take that under”
The Houston Texans finished the 2021 season 4-13, under the 4.5-win total.
“I don't know what I dreamed about that night. I'm not sure if it was a dream, a nightmare, what was going on. I woke up at seven o'clock in the morning and like eyes wide awake go nope it's Jon Rahm it's not Xander anymore it's Jon Rahm I I don't know why I don't know how maybe it's sort of the Jon Rahm baby thing got in my mind if you haven't heard Jon Rahm's wife was pregnant with her first child he'd said a few weeks ago if the baby does not come by master's week I'm out you know if it looks like the baby's going to come that week, then I'm just going to pack up and leave if she goes into labor. Well, they had the baby on Sunday. He was able to be with them for a day or two and then come here to Augusta and should be fine. And in fact, that's the exact same scenario that Danny Willett had five years ago. Looked like he was going to miss this event. Boy was born early and he made it and he made history. So I do like those parallels for Jon Rahm this week. And so, yeah, I, within a four and a half hour span where I wasn't even awake, my first pick changed.”
Hideki Matsuyama won the 2021 Masters at 10-under; Jon Rahm tied for fifth at 6-under.
“a little more value then you want to go with paul casey uh and then to me i also i am on brooks kepka i like that one a lot just because i like his attitude i like the idea of him going back to augusta coming off of neurosurgery knee surgery three days later and just saying fuck you i'm still the best major player in the world. And this is what I can do. And look, if you can get”
Hideki Matsuyama won the 2021 Masters at 10-under; Brooks Koepka missed the cut at 149 (+5).
“I like to take unders because the public mainly is going to come in and take over. So I could get down early on unders again. We going to talk about this for the next few months We let the dust settle but there three or four that I have to hit right away so the lines i think they a team that going to tank this year i hit their under five”
The Detroit Lions finished the 2021 season 3-13-1, under the 5-win total.
“the eagles six and a half at plus money for the under right now because the area i live in it's a lot of philadelphia eagles fans they're going to be heavily slated towards the over so right now six and a half people have been taking the over so it's plus 123 on the under for the eagles this is not a team that I can see getting seven wins.”
The Philadelphia Eagles finished the 2021 season 9-8, over the 6.5-win total, so the under lost.
“So the Bears are sitting at seven, plus money towards the under. When I look at that division, it's so tempting to take the over. It feels like they're baiting me to take the over because we know the Green Bay runs that division. They're the most complete team. Minnesota has tons of holes. It's hard to believe in Kirk. it's one of those where I don't believe in the Lions either. So if I don't believe in the Bears, the Lions, or the Vikings, someone's got to get the second amount on Wednesday. I'm having a battle right now with myself between them and the Vikings, but I just can't back Andy Dalton. I just do not have faith in Andy Dalton. So for me, plus money, taking the under at seven, I like that number a lot. I have it 6.8, so I'm getting a good number there at seven. It's a fair number to push, so I like the under.”
The Chicago Bears finished the 2021 season 6-11, under the 7-win total.
“And a team that I bought immediately to win their division, I would buy them to win the World Series. A team that's gotten way too much hate is the Houston Astros. And right now at FanDuel, they're over 87 and a half. This is a number that I think I may get 90 from a win Pythagorean standpoint. Sean's got them at 89 wins. I think they can win the World Series. I think they're definitely going to win the AL West. uh i mean even davenport they didn't take last year's projections and they have him at 95 wins and you know fangraphs has him as the second best offensive war behind the dodgers and the best overall war in in the al uh you know the dip in their total came because of frambor valdez taking a comeback pitch off of his ring finger but now he's having this miraculous recovery and dusty you know baker's like this is you know it's going to be great he's he's fine no big problem here they signed Jake Odorizzi to be a fifth starter. That's a great fifth starter. He's not great, but he's a great fifth starter. Altuve looks like himself again in spring training. Jordan Alvarez is still growing as a hitter, which is scary for everybody. And their new center fielder that replaced George Springer, Miles Straw, may be the fastest man in MLB. I mean, I was thinking Mondesi was going to run away with the stolen base title, but this Miles Straw kid, if he can get on base is potentially a 40 steel guy. So I love the Astros.”
The Houston Astros went 95-67 and clinched the AL West on September 30, 2021.
“Bit of a homer pick, but listen, I've never bet Mets futures before. Again, the most conservative divisional projection on them is 53%. Highest is 63%. So betting them at plus 150 to win their division, it's more than a 15% edge. Again, World Series projection closer to 11%.”
The New York Mets finished 77-85, third in the NL East; the Atlanta Braves won the division at 88-73.
“But by far, the most undervalued team right now is the Milwaukee Brewers. Added Colton Long and Jackie Bradley Jr. up the middle to fix their defense. We've seen repeatedly throughout the past decade, 20 years, the quickest way to improve your team and turn it around is to improve your team defense and when you have really good pitching like they do it kind of amplifies everything that you're doing so Yelich is heading in spring training looks over the struggles that he had last year Keston Hero is heading in spring training I like the way that their offense is shaping up I love their defense I love their bullpen I have a couple really sneaky Cy Young candidates at the top of their rotation Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burns so just to go back to projections I have them 54% to win the NL Central their range is 37 to 63 percent so it's a much wider range of outcomes in a pretty wide open division you can still bet a plus 310 out there at fan duel that's obviously still more than a 10 percent edge even if you're taking that 37 percent projection i have the world series odds projected at 3.4 percent you can find a number as high as 7500 i threw a ticket up on twitter yesterday”
The Milwaukee Brewers lost to the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS and did not win the 2021 World Series; the Braves beat Houston 4 games to 2 in the World Series.
“Phillies under 81 and a half all day.”
The Philadelphia Phillies finished 82-80 in 2021, over the 81.5-win total, so the under lost.
“The two under teams I'm looking at right now, Chicago White Sox under 90 and a half wins.”
The Chicago White Sox finished 93-69 in 2021, over the 90.5-win total, so the under lost.
“Yeah, so there's certain criteria that you just need to hit in order to be able to get in the conversation. So I usually pick off about three or four guys in each league for Cy Young, and then I just stick with one person in each league for MVP. So we're going by MVPs. I have Jose Ramirez in the AL.”
Shohei Ohtani was voted the unanimous 2021 AL MVP, not Jose Ramirez.
“certainly going to have the numbers to claim it but really my most confident player future player that i want to have stock in is juan soto um people realize that he's great but i don't think they realize the context of how great he is four of the six projection systems that i rely on have him already as a better hitter than mike trout if you look at historical context if you talk to scouts if you talk to managers who are around for it during that time the comp on him is Ted Williams. And if you look at the filters for data in terms of what they've already put up through age 21, they're the only two players in MLB history with a walk rate greater than 15%, a home run plus walk rate greater than 20%, and a season with more walks than strikeouts where they led the league in on-base percentage. Again, the only two baseball players in history through age 21, Juan Soto and Ted Williams. So man, I think Soto's live for a triple crown, not just this year but in the future um i only have him for mbp at plus 850”
Bryce Harper won the 2021 NL MVP award, not Juan Soto.
“they led the league in on-base percentage. Again, the only two baseball players in history through age 21, Juan Soto and Ted Williams. So man, I think Soto's live for a triple crown, not just this year but in the future um i only have him for mbp at plus 850 i have him for most home runs at 18 to 1 i like that to 15 to 1”
Fernando Tatis Jr. led the NL with 42 home runs in 2021; Juan Soto did not lead the league.
“i think the grom is kind of as close as you can get to a walk for nl cy young if he stays stays healthy His velocity actually increased last year The guy is seemingly getting better with age converted shortstop doesn have as much mileage on his arm as other pitchers akin to him do So I really like DeGrom, but there's some other long shots in the NL”
Corbin Burnes won the 2021 NL Cy Young Award (MLB-leading 2.43 ERA), not Jacob deGrom.
“So I really like DeGrom, but there's some other long shots in the NL I'm taking a look at, my favorite one of which is probably Brandon Woodruff at 25-1. We've been big on the Brewers on this podcast, but Woodruff is going to be a big driver of their success this year. He's a workhorse. He's going to get to 200 innings, probably 200 strikeouts, if he stays healthy. And on the AL side, I really like the improvements that Kenta Maeda made last season with the Twins. It's rare that you have a pitcher or a player to lead the Dodgers and find improvements, but his Dakota projections are extremely optimistic. They have his ERA close to about 3.25, so he's right up with the leaders in the AL. If he gets 30 turns and averages six innings per start and has better ratios, he has a really good defense behind him. If he has better ratios than the guys who are a little bit ahead of him strikeouts like Giolito and like Garrett Cole. He's going to be in the conversation. He finished second last year behind Shane Beaver, who's unanimous. So he's already on the minds of voters. So Kenta Maeda is a long shot. I think it's certainly worth the price of the ticket.”
Robbie Ray won the 2021 AL Cy Young Award in a near-unanimous vote (29 of 30 first-place votes), not Kenta Maeda.
“yeah i'll have to pace myself here because i talked about it at length in the action network baseball preview back when we cut that i think january or february but i cannot believe that Teoscar Hernandez came out at 500 to 1 to win the home run i zips has him i think six or seven home runs off of like who they project to have the most home runs it might have been pete alonzo i'm not sure but Teoscar Hernandez is the kind of guy that you absolutely want to look for when it comes to value and the fact that they are ascending in the world of power. And there's a lot of other outside factors that are going on with the Blue Jays, but hey, he is in the penthouse of this lineup. He's batting fourth in between Bo Bichette. He's right above Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He has got just the most perfect spot in the most perfect offensive lineup. And so I've mentioned him so much for like, you know, winning the home run crown, like being an outside MVP candidate if the Blue Jays make a run and win the division, which is completely you know that more of a long shot I would rather take him for home runs But I been rostering him in fantasy baseball for years And the reason is because he always been streaky in power Like you going to get eight home runs in one week and then you'll get nothing for the next week. So he's a great DFS play or a fantasy baseball play. But then in 2019, he got very consistent with his home runs. And last year he hit 16 home runs in less than 50. His ISO went way up. His exit velocity went up two miles per hour. And you It's only two miles per hour. The league average in exit velocity, because they're screwing around with the ball, it went down two miles an hour. So as everybody else had lower exit velocity, his actually ticked up two miles an hour. He's projected about fourth, like I said, tons of lineup protection. And then the one thing that you got to look at is his spray chart. His spray chart is all left field pole, left center. And if you haven't known, the Toronto Blue Jays are playing down in Dunedin, right? Their single A Florida State League ballpark where they do their spring training. Go up and pull up a wind map of how it looks in that town with that ballpark and where the wind blows. It is straight out to left. And I know it was 2019 because that's the last time we had minor league baseball. But if you look at park factors and yes, I'm that big of a dork. If you look at park factors for single A baseball, that was the second highest home run rate for all of the teams that part Dunedin. And so, you know, if their single A team is jacking bombs out of that park, what is Teoscar Hernandez going to do with all that exit velocity? Right. And his spray chart matches the wind perfectly. Sign me up for what was a 500 to one, 300 to one, 200 to one. I think I've seen some 60 to one still out there. I love it. I absolutely love that problem.”
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Salvador Perez shared the 2021 AL home run lead with 48 each; Teoscar Hernandez did not lead the league.
“But man, I have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 15th in my RBI projections, and everyone around him in my projections is listed between 25 and 30 to one for most RBIs. You can get them at 60 to one at FanDuel. That's one of my favorite prop bets out there right now.”
Salvador Perez led MLB with 121 RBIs in 2021; Vladimir Guerrero Jr. did not lead the league.
“one of my sneaky favorite props right now, it's actually a most saves prop on Trevor Rosenthal. He signed late with the A's. He's replacing Liam Hendricks, who led the American League in saves or led all of baseball in saves since the midpoint of the 2019 season. So he's certainly going to have the opportunities to convert those saves. Rebounded from Tommy John. Was awful the first year coming back. Had career best rates across the board last year. Was absolutely tremendous. He's eighth on my saves leaderboard. Everyone around him is in the 10 to 14 range. So a 20 to 1, 15 to 1 even or better. I really like Rosenthal for most saves.”
Trevor Rosenthal never appeared for the A's in 2021, undergoing thoracic outlet and hip labrum surgeries, and recorded zero saves; Mark Melancon led MLB with 39 saves.
“And Liberty, we can get to that. And we get to the Midwest against Oklahoma State. I got some nine and a half there. That's down to seven and a half.”
69-60 — Oklahoma State beat Liberty 69-60 in the first round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament, a 9-point margin, so Liberty +9.5 covered.
“my favorite futures this year, and usually I'm so down on them because everybody loves them. And I'm always like, you know, they're going to disappoint. Now, no one's on them because there's a lot of uncertainty. That's exactly when you buy the New Orleans Saints. Who are they going to have a quarterback? There's three possibilities, maybe even more, maybe, maybe even four. Cause you factor in Russell Wilson, but regardless of who they have at quarterback, you can see Sean Payton making it work. I mean, Taysom Hill in his starts with one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the week, believe it or not. I mean, it was ridiculous just how Sean Payton can scheme this thing up. I think even if, you know, it ended up being Jameis, I think this team is dangerous but you look at the past you know 37 Super Bowls which is how long football outsiders started tracking DVOA And the team that finished number one in overall DVOA the year before the next year They get to the Super Bowl. So they win their conference a third of the time. They win the Super Bowl more than one in five times. 22 percent. right now New Orleans is nine to one at bed MGM to win the NFC and about you know plus about 18 to one to win the the Super Bowl I really like those I think this is a year where there's some value on”
The New Orleans Saints finished the 2021 season 9-8 and missed the playoffs; the Los Angeles Rams won the 2021 NFC Championship (over San Francisco, 20-17) en route to winning Super Bowl LVI, not the Saints (ESPN standings; Wikipedia Super Bowl LVI).
“It's why we're going to bet on Seattle at 22 to one or even on the Saints at 19 to one. I like all those. I like everything everyone just said. I'm spreading it out. I'm putting money on every one of these things like they are a pack of Top Shot. That's what I'm doing.”
The Seattle Seahawks finished the 2021 season 7-10 and missed the playoffs; the Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl LVI (ESPN standings; Wikipedia Super Bowl LVI).
“move the number. What is your take on Carson Wentz to the Colts and Super Bowl futures? I mean, it shifted it from 25 to 1 to what, 22 to 1, I think. A little bit. I mean, a little bit. A little bit. So basically, from my standpoint, like them and the Dolphins, we talked earlier, both teams, I'm invested about two grand each into them to win 50K each on both teams. So it's teams I'm definitely interested in. The Carson Wentz move is just interesting from every standpoint.”
The Indianapolis Colts finished the 2021 season 9-8 and missed the playoffs; the Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl LVI (ESPN standings; Wikipedia Super Bowl LVI).
“So basically, from my standpoint, like them and the Dolphins, we talked earlier, both teams, I'm invested about two grand each into them to win 50K each on both teams.”
The Miami Dolphins finished the 2021 season 9-8 and missed the playoffs on tiebreakers; the Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl LVI (ESPN standings; Wikipedia Super Bowl LVI).
“and other than the only reason I'm playing this Colts one is just the main fact of that team Carson if he can get right that's crazy good value and the division they're in the only team we're really scared of are the Titans and we know what the Titans are they got Tannehill they got Derrick Henry they have a great offense but they got a bad defense so at this value them and the Titans are the same exact value right now. I just have a hard time seeing the Titans repeat in that division. So I do like the Colts at this value of plus 2,800.”
The Indianapolis Colts finished the 2021 season 9-8 and missed the playoffs; the Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl LVI, beating the Bengals 23-20 (ESPN standings; Wikipedia Super Bowl LVI).
“aren't talking about enough are the Raiders. So the Raiders have a couple of first round picks they can give up and their car to Houston. We saw the Raiders go toe to toe last year with the Chiefs. I like that upside at 5,000 50 to one because I don't know, man, that Raiders team, they're going to have a packed stadium next year if they're allowed to. And that's a big home field advantage. And I know Gruden's wilted here last two years at the end of the season. His teams have just fallen apart. But I've seen it on offense. They have the weapons. They have all these weapons around their car. That team can put up points. And if you're getting Watson in there, man, that could be a really special team. So that whole little bunch there, I would say they're my favorite. I like the Raiders idea. The Raiders at 50-1 feels Bucs-esque.”
The Las Vegas Raiders made the 2021 playoffs (10-7) but lost the AFC Wild Card game 26-19 to the Cincinnati Bengals; the Los Angeles Rams went on to win Super Bowl LVI (ESPN standings; Wikipedia 2021-22 NFL playoffs).
“That front four, they really got to Tom. I know that he had a pretty good game against them, but that's playoff Tom. I mean, we know. We just saw what he did in his playoffs. but this team feels like that's all they're missing is a quarterback. And it doesn't have to be Watson for them. I feel like if they can just get a guy just like Alex Smith that can control the clock, protect the ball, and just not put the team in bad positions, that's a real, real sleeper team with that defense. So at plus 6,000, no real clear-cut team in that division, that's great. I do. I like that team's second year, the Washington football team. I know a lot of people like the Giants, but I don't believe in Daniel Jones. I'm just not going to bank on them next year. For that division, for the best value, I think the Washington football team, Super Bowl future, that's really good value.”
Washington finished the 2021 season 7-10 and missed the playoffs; the Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl LVI (ESPN standings; Wikipedia Super Bowl LVI).
“Man, just looking at this game on paper, it's – like we get it right now, the props. But I just love the first half to be low scoring. I just think like exactly everything that guy just broke down. it just feels that that that's a smart play over time with your money is to take that under 10 points in the first quarter flukes might happen we might get a busted tackle quick return weird things but if you're just playing the numbers and the data exactly the under 10 points in the first quarter that that a good play um all right under 10 points in the first quarter uh as i mentioned before stucky on the action network NFL podcast has talked about this trend And if the sample size of the Super Bowl isn big enough”
Q1: TB 7-KC 3 (Final: TB 31-KC 9) — Super Bowl LV's first quarter ended Buccaneers 7, Chiefs 3 — exactly 10 combined points, landing on the under/over 10 first-quarter-points line for a push (ESPN box score).
“So their favorite one, which I'm right there with them, is total field goals over one and a half in the first half. It's minus 125, the juice. I love the play. I love that. They're pretty much banking on these guys having drives and then just getting tight in the red zone in the first half. So for my first play, my favorite one, I really do like that play by them. The over one and a half first half field goals.”
2 FGs in 1st half (Chiefs: 49, 34 yd); Final: TB 31-KC 9 — Kansas City kicked two field goals in the first half of Super Bowl LV (49 and 34 yards by Butker), clearing the over 1.5 total first-half-field-goals line (ESPN box score).
“The next one will be either team two-point conversion. Yes, plus 230. And again, all these lines are from our friends at DraftKings. Just a great value on a number that we both know these teams, their head coaches love to go for two. Bruce loves to go for two. Andy Reid loves to go for two. With two risky coaches in a game that is all about taking high-risk plays to try to win a winner's take-all game, I just love the fact that if any team gets down by a weird number, we're pretty much guaranteed to get a two-point play attempt at any point in this game. If you're willing to bet these weird props I'm going to be giving out today, This is one of these higher ones up there. I love either team to score two points. I love this one I feel like this one is definitely going to make our list I like it because of the number I feel more comfortable betting on something that I feel great about at plus 230”
TB 31-KC 9 — No team attempted a two-point conversion in Super Bowl LV; all four touchdowns (Gronkowski x2, Brown, Fournette) were followed by a standard extra point (ESPN box score scoring summary).
“because it's a minus 114 but longest td plus uh 45.5 over yards minus 114 i just think again we talk about these two offenses they're they're very aggressive against defenses that are pretty aggressive I know the Chiefs do like to run a cover two zone where they do drop back to safeties a lot but eventually Brady's going to get them there's no one better in the history of the NFL reading defenses so we'll talk about him a little bit later on but Scotty Miller he's the kind of guy we saw last week where he's just one big one big play kind of guy and I could see him getting behind this Chiefs defense. And same goes with the Buccaneers against Tyreek Hill. We saw Tyreek Hill have a historical day the last time these teams played. And with Sammy Watkins back, he can do the same kind of thing where he can open things up for him and the other receivers. So I do really like this play, Long's TD over 45 and a half.”
Longest TD: Fournette 27-yd run; Final: TB 31-KC 9 — The longest touchdown in Super Bowl LV was Leonard Fournette's 27-yard touchdown run, under the 45.5-yard line (ESPN box score scoring summary lists only four TDs: two Gronkowski receptions, a Brown reception, and Fournette's 27-yard run).
“over four and a half sacks plus 120 in Super Bowl 55.”
4 total sacks (TB 3, KC 1); Final: TB 31-KC 9 — Tampa Bay and Kansas City combined for 4 sacks in Super Bowl LV (Buccaneers 3, Chiefs 1), under the 4.5 total-sacks line (ESPN box score).
“And if you love that one with me, Shaq right now, his over is 0.5 sacks plus 120. Love it. Literally this guy, all he needs is to get a sack with another guy and you're at a push for the rest of the game. So I just think there's going to be an opportunity here for Shaq to get a sack on Mahomes, especially he loves holding on to the ball. He's going to be trying to make big plays. he's going to get one on them. It's just only a matter of time. So I think you're getting great value right now in check over 0.5 sacks.”
Shaquil Barrett is credited with a full 1.0 sack of Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl LV, clearing the over 0.5 sacks line (ESPN box score defensive stats). (Barrett 1.0 sack)
“So I really like this underprop for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, rushing or receiving under 48 and a half, plus 105.”
Clyde Edwards-Helaire gained 64 rushing yards and 23 receiving yards (87 combined) in Super Bowl LV, well over the 48.5-yard line, so the under bet lost (ESPN box score). (64 rush + 23 rec = 87 total yds)
“about it this is another one of my favorite props to do high high scoring half second minus one uh 112 right now in DraftKings so you basically just go to DraftKings you go to the Super Bowl you scroll over you click on halves you scroll down and I'll have it right there which says highest scoring half second or first so if I love the under in the first quarter of 10 if I like the under of the first half I have to love the highest scoring half being the second so this is a play I I play every year and it's been good to me throughout the year. So going to keep on playing at a high scoring half second minus one 12.”
1st half: 27 pts, 2nd half: 13 pts (Final: TB 31-KC 9) — The first half of Super Bowl LV outscored the second half 27-13 (Q1+Q2 vs Q3+Q4 per the ESPN scoring summary), so the 'second half is the highest-scoring half' pick lost.
“I know you're going to hate this one, but I love it because it is so funky and it's just fun to bet. And it's another one where you only have to hit it once every 20 years. You're going to get your return on investment. And that's any own lineman to score a touchdown plus 2000. I love it. It's just I just see both these offenses doing something weird down the end zone where Andy Reid, he loves illusions, guys moving in weird places. And all of a sudden, offensive lineman just pops wide open in the end zone. And same goes with Tom Brady. We saw all those years. Was that Brewski? I think it was. Or maybe it was Brable. They would always bring in a defensive guy to do these weird packages for touchdowns. It was Brable. So I could see them doing something similar this year with their alignment. They have two different guys that have scored and have had catches this year on their O-line in the Buccaneers. So I like this one. It's just a fun, weird prop where you can bet 100 to 1-2 catch. And it's any alignment to score a touchdown. I love this one.”
TB 31-KC 9 — No offensive lineman scored a touchdown in Super Bowl LV; the ESPN box score scoring summary shows all four touchdowns going to Gronkowski (x2), Brown, and Fournette.
“where we have two quarterbacks that are willing to take high-risk plays for high rewards, it's total interceptions over one and a half at plus 134. I just think we saw Brady last week. He doesn't care if he's throwing fun picks. If he's taking a deep shot and the guy happens to either pick it off or Mike Evans can catch it, he's fine with that because it's a 50-yard bomb down the field. So with both these offenses, especially with Mahomes having these two offensive linemen out, he's going to be trying to make big plays at all times to counteract that big weakness right now in that team. So I see both these quarterbacks taking a lot of risk in this game, and I love that this one is at plus money. So over one and a half interceptions plus 134. What do you think this correlates to”
2 total INTs (Mahomes 2, Brady 0); Final: TB 31-KC 9 — Patrick Mahomes threw 2 interceptions (to Antoine Winfield Jr. and Devin White) in Super Bowl LV, clearing the over 1.5 total-interceptions line (ESPN box score).
“Yeah. My man, Scotty Miller, receiving yards over 20.5. I just think we know that the Chiefs defense, they're going to eventually sleep on this guy because they're going to be paying attention to Godwin. They're going to be paying attention to Mike Evans. And they're going to be paying attention to Gronk or Bray. And we've seen it with Scotty Miller. He's a big play, boomer bust kind of guy. So all we're hoping for here is just one 25-yard catch from Scotty Miller for a whole Super Bowl. I just think that's really good value, especially minus 112. So that's another one I really love, Scotty Miller over 20 and a half.”
Scotty Miller finished Super Bowl LV with 0 catches for 0 yards on 1 target, missing the over 20.5 receiving-yards line (ESPN box score). (0 rec, 0 yds, 1 target)
“So I wouldn't care too much about the spread. It's one of those, I'm just going to take the money line. But obviously I'll bet the spread and do teasers and everything like that. But it's one of those where I wouldn't get too harped about it. We'll see. We'll see someone put it out there. But basically the team that wins covers like 80 percent of the time. So if even if you take the Buccaneers, you already only have a one to five chance of covering that number if they lose. So it's just one of those where I just feel if you're going to go in on the Buccaneers, just do the money line. Do the money line in the Buccaneers. OK.”
TB 31, KC 9 — Buccaneers won Super Bowl LV 31-9 outright over the Chiefs; Buccaneers moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Brendan Copman, and this is not about the game, so get ready. Curious to hear your thoughts, if you have any yet, on Chargers at 30-1 to win the Super Bowl in the post-Anthony Lynn era. Also, is it worth taking a shot on the Jets at 100-1 in speculation that they get Deshaun Watson or any other Super Bowl flyers worth taking at this point? That's what I was going to talk to you about. We'll probably do a whole show on it just because right now we have three legit quarterbacks that might be on the move. And that's going to really be crazy with these futures where I already locked in. I would say the only one I've locked in right now is the Panthers.”
The Carolina Panthers finished the 2021 NFL season 5-12, missed the playoffs entirely, and did not win Super Bowl LVI (the Los Angeles Rams did) (ESPN team schedule/record).
“I'm going to be taking Green Bay minus three.”
TB 31, GB 26 — Buccaneers beat Packers 31-26 (Packers won by only 5) vs the -3 line; Packers -3 busts (ESPN box score).
“And now that the game is settled, I have to take the Bills. I know it's at plus three. It's down to plus two. This is a coin flip game.”
KC 38, BUF 24 — Chiefs beat Bills 38-24 (Bills lost by 14) vs the +3 line; Bills +3 busts (ESPN box score).
“Not a big balls, but we have chosen a foxhole. We have decided that the Rams plus six and a half is the foxhole bet.”
GB 32, LAR 18 — Packers beat Rams 32-18 (Rams lost by 14) vs the +6.5 line; Rams +6.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“So I with you This is one of these I happily put in with the Chiefs Chiefs 100 By the way you right in your assessment I looking at the data right now in the Action Network app 53 of the bets that is the public coming in on the Browns as 10 dogs 60 of the money the professionals coming in on the Kansas City Chiefs”
KC 22, CLE 17 — Chiefs beat Browns 22-17 (margin +5) vs the -10 line; Chiefs -10 busts (ESPN box score).
“of risky passes here. He doesn't have the same arm strength on his arm. And I just like it that we're getting three and a half still with the Buccaneers. I know it's a square pick, but to me, this is just a smart side here. And I'm going to ask you to be my companion and take that three and a half with me.”
TB 30, NO 20 — Buccaneers beat Saints 30-20 (margin +10) vs the +3.5 line; Buccaneers +3.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“But when I'm looking at this game, I like the Bills at minus six and a half.”
BUF 27, IND 24 — Bills won 27-24 (margin +3) vs the -6.5 line; Bills -6.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“We are going with the Washington football team with plus nine.”
TB 31, WSH 23 — Buccaneers won 31-23 (Washington lost by 8) vs the +9 line; Washington +9 covers (ESPN box score).
“Titans plus three. I like that side. How could that not be the side? Meanwhile,”
BAL 20, TEN 13 — Ravens won 20-13 (Titans lost by 7) vs the +3 line; Titans +3 busts (ESPN box score).
“I like that over 47.”
NO 21, CHI 9 — Saints beat Bears 21-9, combined 30 points vs the over 47 line; over busts (ESPN box score).
“I love the Steelers coming in minus three and a half the fact that it's up to six because all the”
CLE 48, PIT 37 — Browns beat Steelers 48-37 outright vs the Steelers -6 line; Steelers -6 busts (ESPN box score).
“So I like the Giants. [27:06] I like their defense here. [27:07] I like that plus three.”
NYG 23, DAL 19 — Giants beat Cowboys 23-19 outright, covering the +3 spread.
“All right. So I'm putting the bills in at four and a half.”
BUF 56, MIA 26 — Bills beat Dolphins 56-26, covering the -4.5 spread by 25.5 points.
“So I'm going to go all in on the Bears, plus five and a half.”
GB 35, CHI 16 — Packers beat Bears 35-16; Chicago lost by 19, busting the +5.5 spread.
“The better bet is whatever the total rushing yards prop is for Derrick Henry, [42:51] bet the over because he's like 200 yards away from 2000 yards and they are gonna fucking pound [42:58] the ball against a shitty texans defense and watch him get to that 2000 yard mark i love that play”
Derrick Henry rushed 34 times for 250 yards and 2 TDs in Tennessee's 41-38 win over Houston, clearing his rushing-yards prop and finishing over 2,000 yards for the season. (Derrick Henry: 34 car, 250 yds, 2 TD)
“The Washington football team one and a half point favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles. Professional football quarterback Alex Smith will be playing. I would take Washington here.”
WSH 20, PHI 14 — Washington beat Eagles 20-14, covering the -1.5 spread.
“What a great game for Christmas. Just a holiday treat. Just one team that's completely gone in the tank, and the Saints, they're dying for a bounce-back game. But you just said it. All the money on Christmas Day is going to come in on the Saints. This is a pro line, seven and a half. We've taken the Vikings this year as a dog, and that's when they've been covered for us. That Tampa Bay one, that was brutal, but that was on the kicker. That was one of the few games they didn't cover as a big dog. So got to take the Vikings here, especially with the hook.”
NO 52, MIN 33 — Saints beat Vikings 52-33; Minnesota lost by 19, busting the +7.5 spread.
“but divisional game plus four for the 49ers and no one's gonna be betting the 49ers i have to it's the pro it's the pro side you have to take the plus four here for the 49ers well you're 100%”
SF 20, ARI 12 — 49ers beat Cardinals 20-12 outright, covering the +4 spread.
“the road? Sickening. It's sickening. That's what I'm saying. Like these home dogs, this is what I have to do. You have to take the Jack seven and a half. I know they're horrible. I mean, that game last week against the Ravens, I like the Ravens simply just because they beat up on bad teams last week but I played the over in that game for a decent amount of money and it was a horrible”
CHI 41, JAX 17 — Bears beat Jaguars 41-17; Jacksonville lost by 24, busting the +7.5 spread.
“We take this plus 10 and we throw a little on the Jets money line”
NYJ 23, CLE 16 — Jets beat Browns 23-16 outright, covering the +10 spread.
“But divisional game, three and a half, I'll take the Broncos.”
LAC 19, DEN 16 — Chargers beat Broncos 19-16; Denver lost by only 3, covering the +3.5 spread.
“But like you just said, Cowboys have been playing better. The defense has been playing a little bit better. Home dog, public coming in heavy on the Eagles, I'm assuming. Because this number moved from minus one to plus two. So that means a lot. Wow. That's terrifying as an Eagles fan. So yeah, the Eagles fan in me, I hope the Eagles win this game. But the sharper me, the better. I'm happy to take the Cowboys.”
DAL 37, PHI 17 — Cowboys beat Eagles 37-17 outright, covering the +2 spread.
“And everyone's going to be betting on the 49ers. Like you just said, this is one of those where the public's going to come in on the 49ers, and we have to be on the other side of this because this is too big of a number for the Cowboys to be laying at home. And three, it's great. I did like, you know, that three and a half, that was a really nice number. But three, I'm still happy to take that to the Cowboys.”
DAL 41, SF 33 — Cowboys beat the 49ers 41-33 outright, covering the +3 spread.
“And we know the Bears aren't good. So I think they're sucking people in with this three and a half. They're trying to get Bears money, but the smart side is going to be Minnesota. I love this pick. So I hate for you to put Minnesota against your own team, but it's one of those sides I wouldn't mind having the contest. All right, two things, two things. Number one, the number is three, not three and a half. Number two, number two, let me give you some against the spread records. Dallas, three and ten. Denver, eight and five. Carolina, seven and six. So we're smart with Denver and Carolina. We are like betters. No, we're betters with Denver and Carolina. We are gamblers with Dallas. That's what we are. I'm just saying. I'm just saying. By the way, by the way, Minnesota at three, is this a hornet's nest? Are we walking into a hornet's nest? I'll walk into a hornet's nest for you on this one. I love Minnesota. I'm walking into a fucking hornet's nest, all right? Now be my companion. You love Minnesota, even at three. Yeah. I mean, that's even better. It depends on what books you're looking at. Like, I'm looking at two different books right now, but I must have three and a half still for the Bears. But yeah, three, it's even better. It's going to be a public bet, I'm sure, because a lot of people aren't going to be backing the Bears. But this lines up as a situational plus. You are my companion. Now be my companion. As they say, we are going to walk into this hornet's nest together.”
CHI 33, MIN 27 — Bears beat Vikings 33-27; Minnesota lost by 6, busting the -3 spread.
“This next game, this next game, so I'm putting the cards minus six on the list. The next game, the world-beating Chiefs, who look better than they did as Super Bowl champs, visiting the New Orleans Saints, who just got beat up, who have just sort of lost their edge as the number one seed in the NFC. They are three-point dogs at home. Big balls. bet of the week. Big balls! Bet of the week. No. Come on. You gotta. Back to back. Saints just had their first loss in months. Like it? I love it, Chad. It's just a smart number. Three. Everyone, like we talk about all the time, money lines, teasers, all of it are going to be on the Chiefs. and just like last week, they got backdoored and broken. Same thing with this week. We like the Saints here because it's a smart number. And if you're catching a home team, like we talk all the time, getting a small percentage of the bet, and the road team's getting all this money, don't think. You just fade. And more often than not, you're going to be right. And this is a prime situation where everybody's coming in on the Chiefs. So we love the Saints, buddy. Don't overthink it.”
KC 32, NO 29 — Chiefs beat Saints 32-29; New Orleans lost by exactly 3, pushing the +3 spread.
“Yeah. One joke. All right. Thursday night, our favorite football team, the New England Patriots. Oh my God. This is a no brainer. This is a no brainer. They are five point underdogs on the road at the Rams. We know they stayed in LA this week because they played at SoFi on Saturday or Sunday. So we know they're in LA. So we know they're getting in quality practice time. And this is very interesting to me. Very interesting to me. This game opened six and a half. It's now five. Our data is showing 61% of the bets on the Patriots, 66% of the money on the Rams. Yet the line has moved down. So it's a line that's moving in the direction of the bets, not the money, which is interesting. Yeah, it's true that in a normal situation, I would take the Rams here because it's a short week and it's a Thursday night. But the Patriots blowout, that wasn't all about, like we were just saying, it wasn't just the coaching. The special teams performance by the Chargers in the history of the football is graded out as one of the worst special teams performances ever, that's ever been since they've kept data. So not too scared that the New England just blew a team out. Now they're playing the Rams, and we've seen Bill Belichick, He knows how to stop the Rams. We've seen it time and time again. Miami, Florida, running the same defensive scheme as the Patriots, shut the Rams down. So I like the number. I like that it's so big. It's going to be the public side, the Patriots, eventually, because how do you not take this after the win they just had But I with you man I cool with taking the Patriots here It is going to be a public side It going to be a massive public side I don't know that we put it in the contest.”
LAR 24, NE 3 — Rams beat Patriots 24-3; Patriots lost by 21, well outside the +5 spread.
“So I'm taking the Texans here at minus one.”
CHI 36, HOU 7 — Bears beat Texans 36-7; Texans lost outright, busting the -1 spread.
“All right, let's get on to the early games for Sunday. The Texans are visiting the Bears. They are one-point favorites right now. This is a trash Bears team. It's a trash Bears team. It's a trash organization. I say that with 100% bias. Shield your eyes. This team is officially trash. Ryan Pace should probably be fired. Matt Nagy should probably be fired. Mitch Trubisky should be let go. They kind of got to blow the whole thing up and start over because it's just, it's going nowhere. The play calling was terrible. When the Bears were down 30, were up 30 to 20 against the Lions, I said to my kid, like, this is exactly where Matthew Stafford wants him. The Lions are going to win this game. My other fear was that Trubisky was going to play so well, the Bears decided, oh my God, he's as good as Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. Let's just re-sign him. So I'm taking the Texans here at minus one. Bears fans be a little happier. At least you don't have Carson Wentz locked up for the next four years at like 30 million a year By the way another reason why the Eagles are the initial entrant into the Vomitorium Hall of Fame That is gross It's awful. I mean, especially the tweets coming out right now. Eagles fans are so bitter. The fact that we passed on DK Metcalf and Justin Jefferson, and we have wide receivers that are just terrible. Like Alshon Jeffrey, he's been back for four games now. We're paying him $12 million a year this year. He has three catches and like 10 drops. It's just all falling apart. But yeah, to this game with the Bears, I'll take the Bears again. I know it's awful. I might be the last guy doing it, but home dog. How do you not take the Bears defense against the Texans? The Texans don't have anyone on defense. At least the Bears, we know they have some players on defense, so they'll be able to get stopped. I'll just take the better defense. I'll take the Bears here.”
CHI 36, HOU 7 — Bears beat Texans 36-7 outright, easily covering the +1 spread.
“that likes to run it and a team likes to take deep shots playing against a team that's their two weaknesses so we'll take these big points with Minnesota and as long as it doesn't go below 4.5 I'm happy to take Minnesota in the competition. So for the record, the line right now is six and a half, like I said.”
TB 26, MIN 14 — Buccaneers beat Vikings 26-14; Vikings lost by 12, busting the +6.5 spread.
“Cowboys on the road, three point favorites against the Bengals, Bengals. Bets and money coming in on the Bengals right now. I mean, obviously, we can't make a decision on this game until the Cowboys play tonight. But let's say the Cowboys come out of this and, you know, you said you're betting the Cowboys. Let's say they show well against the Ravens. Three-point favorites on the road, just so people can get some kind of inkling of what you're thinking here I hate to do it because I I hate the Cowboys but this this line should be four four and a half the the Bengals they got they got their cover we talked about against the Giants that was everything went right they backdoored it they got that number how do you not take the Cowboys an Andy Dalton revenge game too he's coming Back to Cincinnati, I just don't see how Cincy can score. I know Dallas has a bad defense, but, man, that's interesting. You said the public was coming in on Cincy. I thought they were for sure coming on Dallas on the short number, but usually I'll take a home dog here, but I'll take the minus three that's sitting at right now.”
DAL 30, CIN 7 — Cowboys beat Bengals 30-7 on the road, covering the -3 spread by 20 points.
“Cardinals, two-and-a-half-point favorites on the road against the Giants. And, like, Matt Mitchell hates Cliff Kingsbury. The Giants' D looks amazing. Daniel Jones is going to be back. Is that accurate? Do we know? I think we're starting to realize who even cares at this point because if we're betting on the Giants, we're simply betting the defense. And I should have known better. I should have listened to people when they were saying that Kyler wasn't right. He's still hurt. And once again, in that game, he was awful. Was not running the ball. Couldn't make completions. I hate to take the Giants here because I know it's going to be such a public side. But we have to take them.”
ARI 26, NYG 7 — Cardinals beat Giants 26-7; Giants lost by 19, busting the +2.5 spread.
“Broncos on the road at the Panthers. Three and a half point underdogs against Teddy Covers. I gotta take the Broncos but I hate it dude we are so gonna put in a fucking buy this week we don't like any single game every game I know cause it's one of those I already can see what's gonna happen but Panthers I don't know it's I like them better as a dog and I would like it better if they were at two and a half or three the fact that it's three and a half I know the books are trying to suck me in here and get me to take the Broncos. And it's going to work. It's just – I can see this being a field goal game. Both these teams have glaring weaknesses and big strengths. But the Panthers, I just – I don't know. This team, they're very inconsistent. Like we saw in the Vikings game, they had two defensive touchdowns, and they still let the Vikings come back and win that game. So I know they're coming off a bye week, and the Broncos just had the game of the year against the Chiefs. But I have to take the Broncos.”
DEN 32, CAR 27 — Broncos beat Panthers 32-27; Denver won outright, comfortably covering the +3.5 spread.
“the Chiefs, the Dolphins we have not walked into the Hornets' nest we have not made our big balls better the week this is 100% the Hornets' nest game this week walking into Hornets' nest taking the Dolphins here but we have to take them we're walking into the Hornets' nest I'm walking into a fucking Hornets' nest now be my companion last week I was enraged when I saw Tua was going to start because I had a decent amount of money on Miami. I had them in our competition for us too, and I switched them out because I'm an idiot for the Eagles. Tua is not good. He makes so many mistakes that he's a rookie. I can't fault him. People want him to come out and be like Herbert. We saw Herbert happen last week. He had a rookie week where you just have a complete meltdown. That's always going to be the scary part of playing Miami. But this is such a great play here where the Chiefs just played a really tough divisional game, now traveling across country down to Florida to play the Dolphins. And the Dolphins are catching seven and a half. And it's a little telling where the sportsbook are saying the Dolphins aren't as good as people think they are. And this is a big number for a team that's going to be making the playoffs in the Dolphins. But I'll take it. I might be the public side taking the Dolphins this week, but I'll take it at seven and a half.”
KC 33, MIA 27 — Chiefs beat Dolphins 33-27; Miami lost by only 6, covering the +7.5 spread.
“Colts at the Raiders. You know where I'm going to be on this. I got like the Colts are two and a half point favorites. As much as I love a short home dog, I don't love a short home dog when it's the Raiders. And I'm not going to make the Eagles our big balls bet of the week. I promise. So, for this week, Las Vegas Raiders, big balls, bet of the week. Shut up. No one wants to take the Raiders. Everyone knows they should have lost to the Jets. People are going to be coming on the Colts. They're just going to look at the score box and see how well they played and the fact that they won in Houston. We talked about it in text while I didn't want to take the Colts. I didn't like that Fulpe Rivers says turf toe. Chad, I know you've broken every finger on your body, but I don't know if you've ever had turf toe. But it's one of those things, every time you step on your big toe and pivot or anything step into a throw it shooting pain up your leg every time So Rivers he played terrible last week and it didn matter I mean his weapons are that good He just gets it to his guys and they just do all the work for him But this week with the Raiders, I love that we're buying low on the Raiders coming into this game. And the fact that, like you just said, they're catching points at home, I'll take the Raiders every time here. Big balls, better than the week. I can't believe you're doing this to me with the Las Vegas Raiders. I feel like I have faded the Raiders every single week this year, and actually we've done so profitably. How is that possible? They're like a playoff team. Yeah, but they don't cover. I don't know. I just feel like every week I'm against the Raiders, and I always feel good about it. All right, so our Hornets' nest, we've gone back-to-back. Hornets' nest is going to be Dolphins plus 7.5 against the Chiefs, and then Big Ball's bet of the week is going to be Raiders plus 2.5 against the Colts,”
IND 44, LV 27 — Colts beat Raiders 44-27; Las Vegas lost by 17, busting the +2.5 spread.
“Raiders 2.5 against the Colts. Lions plus 7.5 against the Packers. Our Hornets' nest. We are walking into Hornets' Nest because we are companions.”
GB 31, DET 24 — Packers beat Lions 31-24; Detroit lost by only 7, covering the +7.5 spread.
“Jaguars visiting the Vikings. Minnesota Vikings. What are they, eight and a half, nine and a half, depending on the book. My instinct on this game, bets and money, both coming in on the Vikings. The Vikings did not look good. They were missing Thielen. I was very high on this team going into the Cowboys game. Less high on this team now. I felt like losing that game, that was a big deal for them. Just stay away from me. Stay away? Yeah, I'll stay away with you. Jaguars have been covering really well here lately They just been backdoor kings They backdoor everyone And this is where it runs out I take Minnesota this week I hate that it's such a high number, and I hate backing Kirk Cousins. But the Jags, they've played really well down the stretch here. But it has to catch up in here. And the Vikings, they're due for a big win. So I don't love it. We're definitely not putting the competition, but I'll take the Vikings here.”
MIN 27, JAX 24 — Jaguars lost to the Vikings 24-27 in overtime; Minnesota's 3-point win falls short of covering -8.5 (ESPN box score).
“So high number, seven and a half. I know what they're trying to do. They're trying to scare me off the Raiders, but I'll take the Raiders this week.”
NYJ 28, LV 31 — Raiders beat Jets 31-28; the 3-point margin falls short of covering -7.5 (ESPN box score).
“I like the Saints a lot that it's minus three, even though, like you said, it's scaring me a little bit. The Sharps coming on the Falcons, but I've backed the Falcons one week and I back them again the following week and they just let me down the following week. So I'm going to ride that train and take the Saints here.”
ATL 16, NO 21 — Saints beat Falcons 21-16, a 5-point margin that covers the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“And minus three with the Colts, I'll take it.”
HOU 20, IND 26 — Colts beat Texans 26-20, a 6-point margin that covers the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“happy to take the Cardinals here in the big balls. Better the week makes all the sense [40:29] in the world.”
ARI 28, LAR 38 — Rams beat Cardinals 38-28, a 10-point loss for Arizona that blows past the +3 cushion (ESPN box score).
“we got the Eagles who are just dreadful trash. There's no way the Hornets nest is going to be betting the Eagles at plus nine against the Packers in green Bay in a late afternoon game. There is no way this team is just terrible. Like they are awful. They're awful, but But no, it's not a Hornets nest game. That's coming up. Love it. Love the Eagles. Oh, my God. You're sick. You are disgusting. But it just too big of a number Green Bay is not a good defense I know they have guys back in the secondary Eagles are terrible I shocked this many people are even betting on the Eagles But, yeah, it's a big number. Not going to make anyone pick the Eagles, though. That's why I'm not going to make any more unique bets because this is one of those I'm just going to take by myself and just cry in the corner. I have to take this number. It's too big. It should be seven. It's nine. Happy to take the nine.”
GB 30, PHI 16 — Packers beat Eagles 30-16, a 14-point loss for Philadelphia that busts the +9 cushion (ESPN box score).
“I get why people might be taking them here because they got a good quarterback who can throw the ball around. But you got to think Belichick scheming up against a rookie with just a great secondary that New England still has. It's the only good thing on their team is that secondary. Got to take New England here. I know the line's moved down. It's down to minus one in some books. Still like the value on New England. So I'm happy to take this one and put it in our competition.”
LAC 0, NE 45 — Patriots routed Chargers 45-0, a 45-point margin that easily covers -1 (ESPN box score).
“But Chiefs, Chiefs, Chiefs. [49:00] Minus 14.”
KC 22, DEN 16 — Chiefs beat Broncos 22-16; the 6-point margin falls short of covering -14 (ESPN box score).
“And pure value bet, I'll take Washington's money line here.”
PIT 17, WSH 23 — Washington beat the Steelers 23-17 on Monday night, so the moneyline bet wins (ESPN box score).
“will just love this Bills number, especially the fact that it's under a three. They're going to come in on it. So I have to take the 49ers here. Producer and Buffalo Bills fan and Western New York native Matt Mitchell has weighed in that the Buffalo Bills have not won on Monday Night Football since 1999. Oh, my God. That's insane. Yeah. Yeah. So I guess I just locked it in for us. Then I guess we've got to put the 49ers in. 100%. All right. So right now, if we don't take a bye this week, these are the games that we like. And I think we have found a decent number of games that we can start to feel good about. We'll be choosing from Saints minus three, Miami minus 11, Colts minus three, Cards plus three, Eagles plus nine and a half, Pats minus one, Washington plus 10, Niners plus two and a half.”
SF 24, BUF 34 — Bills beat 49ers 34-24 on Monday night; the 10-point loss for San Francisco blows past the +2.5 cushion (ESPN box score).
“I'm happy to take Washington plus three.”
DAL 16, WSH 41 — Washington beat the Cowboys 41-16 on Thanksgiving, a 25-point margin that easily covers +3 (ESPN box score).
“I got this at five-and-a-half, so in my mind, I think I'm getting good value. I like the opening number. It's four-and-a-half. I took that. Now it's down to three and a half. I'll take Seahawks again. It's just a situational play where the Seahawks have had two weeks. They've looked terrible. They've had two close games with the Cardinals. The Cardinals lost a game by three points, and then they just won a game in dramatic fashion. And a lot of people think this is going to be like a spark. To me, it's one of these Cardinals players today on Tuesday, you think they're really thinking about the Seahawks, or you still think they're thinking about Sunday. And they already beat the Seahawks. The Seahawks need this game desperately, especially on a two-game slide. I'm happy to take the Seahawks here and back Russell Wilson. I know that the defense has played terrible for the Seahawks, but this just seems like a situational play where you have to take the Seahawks at home here, and I'm going to take them. You bet the Seahawks at 5.5. You bet them again at 4.5? No, I bet them at 4.5. I said I had them at 5.5. Yeah.”
SEA 28, ARI 21 — Seahawks beat Cardinals 28-21, a 7-point margin that covers the -4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“The Titans on the road at the Ravens, six and a half point dogs, 65% of the bets, 57% of the money coming in on the Tennessee Titans. Smash the Ravens. Smash the Ravens under a touchdown in this game. Go. Talk me off it. I hate it because he has looked bad, Lamar, and their offense looks so stagnant right now. But we have to play the situation. It will buy low. Team and the Ravens, they've played two road games. They won one. They look terrible in the other one just because of a monsoon. And we've seen it. I feel like Tannehill, not that he's turned back into a pumpkin, but I don't have faith in him putting money behind him anymore. Where Lamar, I still have the idea in the back of my mind. This guy, if he has a lead, he's going to win. But the statistic I saw, he's 0-6 now when he's down 10 in any game. So that's one of those where I'm happy to take the Ravens. And if you're a lot better, as soon as the Ravens get down 10, You have to ride the trend. You have to take the Titans live because this is getting to a point now with Lamar that he's had real stinker games. He loses to good teams. That one we had to throw out the Patriots because of the weather. This is not a good team in my mind, the Titans. I'm happy riding with you and taking the minus six and a half. All right. I have no concern. That, to me, is a lock it in pick right now. All right. I'll put it in.”
TEN 30, BAL 24 — Titans beat Ravens 30-24 in overtime, so Baltimore lost outright and the -6.5 spread bet loses (ESPN box score).
“Hey now the Steelers are on the road at the Jaguars Nine and a half point favorites This is an ugly number for me I like to hear what you have this power rated at Bets and money all coming in on the Steelers But, like, this team hasn't looked good. I had this at 10. It's 10 and a half, so I'm getting value on the Jags. The thing that worries me is I've had two straight weeks now. I took the Jags against Houston. They covered that on a little backdoor. Took them against Green Bay because we talked about on the show, the 14 that's a lot of points and it ended up coming down to the wire I think that would they lose by four and yeah again like I don't want to do it but we got to take the jacks here 10 and a half against a Pittsburgh team that if we just go through the history of them and the jacks why does it feel like every time something happens with the jacks either beat them or keep the games close I mean we all remember that Bortles year that Bortles is not a good quarterback he went to Pittsburgh against Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, and he outscored them. I think they beat Pittsburgh that year, like 44 to like 33 or something crazy like that. So in my mind, it just seems like it's one of those teams that Pittsburgh always has problems with the Patriots and the Jaguars. And in my mind, I'll take the 10 and a half for the Jags, but I don't feel great about it.”
PIT 27, JAX 3 — Steelers beat Jaguars 27-3, a 24-point loss that blows past the +10.5 cushion (ESPN box score).
“We also like the Eagles plus three against the Browns.”
CLE 22, PHI 17 — Browns beat Eagles 22-17; Philadelphia's 5-point loss fails to cover the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Next up, Atlanta at New Orleans. I mean, who knows what's happening with Drew Brees. So let's assume that he's not going to be playing for the next two weeks. That's actually information that we know. The question is, Sean Payton has said he won't say who's starting, Jameis or Taysom Hill. How do you rate this game? Let's assume it's going to be Jameis who gets the majority of the snaps. What do you have this number at? How can I power rate this? It's impossible to know without the quarterback, the most important position on the field. When I had this line with Drew Brees, I had it at minus seven. This is always a battle. I would have been really happy to take the Falcons because I probably would have been up there. But with Winston, if he's really going to be the starter, we know what Jameis is. Jameis is terrible. He might have these moments of brilliance where he throws a deep ball that's really good, and hey, maybe he'll show up in this game, his first game as a starter, and play well. But in my mind, I have to take the Falcons here. It's a divisional game. If Winston's the quarterback, this should be minus three. I'm happy to take the plus five right now.”
NO 24, ATL 9 — Saints beat Falcons 24-9, a 15-point loss that busts the +5 spread for Atlanta (ESPN box score).
“We got the Bengals on the road. One and a half point dog to the Washington football team. I spoke too soon. Alex Smith came back to bite me. What did you take? An ugly game. This might be one of the few games I don't bet this year. If I'm going to end up betting it, I'll probably end up on the Bengals. But, man, I hate both these teams. There's just so many holes in different spots. And we talked about it last week. I talked about Burrow hitting a rookie wall, and it looked like him and Herbert both hit one last week. And in my mind, you really shouldn't take a rookie on the road. But I don't know. I would stay away. Like, I can't give an honest opinion on it because I honestly had it at minus two for Washington. They're the better team. They're probably the right side. But after last week with Alex Smith, and I don't like betting on Alex Smith. That's why I don't want to do it again because it was just so unenjoyable last week betting on him. Alex Smith, I think, is a professional quarterback. And he has succeeded in every single spot he's been in. He just came out of a game where he threw 55 passes and brought his team back from 21 points down. The Washington football team has an incredibly good defensive line. They have a good enough running game to control the line of scrimmage. Joe Burrow looked like a wreck against the Steelers, and he was a little bit gimpy. Exactly So why wouldn you take everyone going to take Washington That what making me nervous It like do I want it back Yeah but right They not going to take Washington right now I telling you the money and the bets are coming in on the bangles You know why Cause everyone is still thinking about Washington as Washington. They're not thinking about them as a team that could be sort of playing its way into the playoffs in the second half of the year. Whereas everybody else is thinking, Oh, it's Joe Burrow. And like, he might be rookie of the year. They're not, they didn't watch that game against the Steelers. That game didn't get any time. So like, they're just thinking Joe Burrow came back and is like the best quarter, best young quarterback in the game. I liked, I like Washington here. All right. That's Chad. That's Chad. You want to make that the big balls better than we, because that takes some balls to bet on a pirate, the one-legged man, Alex Smith. Oh, that is not right. This man, this man is courage. Big balls better than we. We're going with Washington. I can't believe I just talked myself into Washington. I hate this team.”
WSH 20, CIN 9 — Washington beat the Bengals 20-9, an 11-point margin that covers the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Chiefs at Raiders. Chiefs are six and a half point favorites on the road in Las Vegas. Speaking of Eric, be enemy future coach of the Chicago Bears. Don't care that it's the public play of the week. I want to thank Vegas ahead of time for moving this down from seven. Give me the Chiefs. Give it to me. Give it to me. Give it to me. Love it. After a bye week, we talk all the time. Andy Reid after a bye week. He just covers, baby. Don't think about it. Six and a half. Chiefs already lost to the Raiders. The Raiders supposedly did a victory lap around their stadium and buses. Give it to me, the Chiefs, man. I'm taking the adjusted line, too. I'll take them minus 10 and a half. I love this with the Chiefs.”
KC 35, LV 31 — Chiefs beat Raiders 35-31; the 4-point win falls short of covering -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“What do you think of the Jets visiting the Chargers and the fact that the Jets were 10 point dogs when the line opened and the money has come in on the Jets and it's been moved to eight and a half? Those idiots. No, I'm kidding. I don't know. They're probably just thinking themselves. It Joe Flacco versus a rookie QB who looked like he hit that wall But in my mind if Bosa back him and Ingram on those two DNs Flacco going to be a statue back there I'm happy to take the Chargers, but I would not put this in the competition. It's just a lot of points to be laying with them. But this year, we've talked about it with Joe Flacco. We just don't think he's a good quarterback. I think he had his game of the year last week, and he still couldn't win that game. So I'm happy to take the Chargers this week. Oh, no. No, we're not putting this game in the contest. No, I'm just saying betting-wise.”
LAC 34, NYJ 28 — Chargers beat Jets 34-28; the 6-point margin falls short of covering -8.5 (ESPN box score).
“But I like the Browns this week. [23:52] I'm cool taking the minus three.”
CLE 10, HOU 7 — Browns beat Texans 10-7; Browns won by 3, exactly matching the -3 spread, so it pushes (ESPN box score).
“And in my mind, if this is going to be a shootout, I have to take the Broncos here at the plus five.”
LV 37, DEN 12 — Raiders beat Broncos 37-12; Broncos lost outright, well short of covering +5 (ESPN box score).
“We can put the Dolphins in if it stays at minus two and a half. [30:06] I got to trust the numbers and say this is the right time to take them here again.”
MIA 29, LAC 21 — Dolphins beat Chargers 29-21, an 8-point margin that covers the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“The 49ers are visiting the Saints. It opened at 6.5. It's now at plus 9.5. You are begging me to take the Niners here. Big balls. Bet of the week, my friend. Big balls. Bet of the week. Saints coming off the most dominating game of the season, according to DVOA. San Francisco, blown out at home on a Thursday night, coming across country to play the Saints. Public is going to tease. They're going to have money line, everything on the Saints here. This is a great matchup for the 49ers. The fact that it's, like you just said, 9.5-10, love it. Anything above 7.5, I'm more than happy to take on the 49ers.”
NO 27, SF 13 — Saints beat 49ers 27-13; the 14-point loss exceeds the +9.5 cushion, so the 49ers cover fails (ESPN box score).
“So now that I'm calling my shot, I got the 49ers winning this outright. So I like the 49ers. They're big. Whoa, whoa. Yeah. You have the 49ers winning this outright. The money line price on this game right now. And by the way, when I yelled big balls better the week, I yelled it so loud, my dog ran upstairs. I just want you to know that. the money line price on this game right now uh 340 up from 235 so it's it's getting up there but i like it no one believes in it man no no one believes in the 49ers like they're they're leaving they're leaving them for dead and they're gonna get guys back this week though i think they're gonna get right and this is this is just a good situational play for the 49ers I'm a hundred percent in I love it I love it let's freaking do it big balls better the week my friend”
NO 27, SF 13 — 49ers lost outright to the Saints 13-27, so the moneyline bet loses (ESPN box score).
“So to me, it's a get-right game for the Ravens. [37:59] I know it's back-to-back road games, but as long as it's seven and under, [38:03] I'm happy to take the Ravens here.”
NE 23, BAL 17 — Patriots beat Ravens 23-17; Baltimore's 6-point loss falls just short of covering -7 (ESPN box score).
“We haven't used the Packers yet. This is the week you have to use the Packers. They have hard divisional games coming up. Let's just get rid of them. Let's just take Green Bay. if we somehow lose to a sixth-round rookie QB, that's the way it's meant to be. That's the way it goes. That's the way it goes. I'm with you 100%.”
GB 24, JAX 20 — Packers beat Jaguars 24-20, so the Green Bay moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“Let's set it up right here, right now. Thursday night, we've got the Packers visiting the Niners. The Packers are five and a half point favorites. And like, look, this game, all of a sudden, no Jimmy G, no Kittle. the Niners really starting to struggle with injuries more than they were even before. This is a pass, obviously. Yeah, and honestly, going in, I like the Packers just because – Them losing at home to Minnesota in a divisional game, felt like this was going to be a great spot coming to the West Coast and playing the 49ers here. But what do we know? We know the 49ers, their run scheme has just been amazing against Green Bay. They played them twice last year and dominated them both times without even needing Jimmy G. It was just all running for the 49ers last year against Green Bay. So can't feel great about it because I'm back in a backup QB here in the 49ers against arguably one of the best quarterbacks ever to play in Rodgers. But I'm going to take the points and just trust that there's good value here on the 49ers at home in a short week and that they can control the game running it.”
SF 17, GB 34 — San Francisco 49ers lost 17-34 to Green Bay Packers, failing to cover +5.5 (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“So for me, this is an automatic play. [26:00] I'm going to ride with, I don't know if it's the public or the sharps, [26:03] but I like this Detroit number, especially at plus four. [26:05] I'm happy to take that.”
MIN 34, DET 20 — Detroit Lions lost 20-34 to Minnesota Vikings, failing to cover +4 (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“So Giants are plus three visiting Washington right now And I know a lot of people are gonna think like this is a coin flip game so they going to take the Giants but I personally have this at Washington minus four and it has more to do with the fact that Washington just has such a great D-line, and coming off a bye week, and the fact they lost to the Giants in a game they probably should have won or at least went to overtime in, I love it. I love how this lines up for the Washington football team. I understand why people think this is good to take the three and a half to three with the Giants, but I just think they're overlooking this Washington team. They don't really make mistakes. Kyle Allen, he just doesn't turn it over, especially at the rate, like you were just saying, as the Giants do. I'm cool with fading Daniel Jones here and just backing this Washington football team.”
WSH 20, NYG 23 — Washington lost outright 20-23 to New York Giants, failing to cover -3 (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“I know. It sucks. This is a professional line. This is like a situation where you just have to take the bills. I know Josh Allen hasn't played well. I know the defense has just been atrocious and they can be run on. But, oh, man, I have to take the bills. It's painful. We probably won't. Put it in because this is too risky where Russ, in these situations, I've just been burned by him a lot where he'll just cover this two-and-a-half number. But I just have to play the Bills here.”
BUF 44, SEA 34 — Buffalo Bills beat Seattle Seahawks 44-34, covering +2.5 (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“Next game up, Ravens, two and a half point faves on the road at Indianapolis. This one is a sticky wicket. Unless your rating is telling you, I got this. I feel confused. Yeah, got it at the pick. So love the Colts. Think you're getting a good number here. Fuck you! I know. I cannot believe you're going to make us bet the Colts in this one. That's a huge difference between two and a half and pick. Getting a home dog like this. I know. I just, I don't know. Maybe I'm overvaluing the injury to the O-line of the Ravens, but I just don't see how the Ravens can really move the ball against this Colts defense. And we've seen the evidence now. Lamar, he's played good teams in big spots, and he keeps not playing up to the standard we're accustomed to. Those interceptions he threw last week were absolutely horrible He throwing it right to defenders And I don know I with you This isn my big ball It better that week But I have to take the Colts here. I just think this is great value. And this is a bad spot for the Ravens here.”
IND 10, BAL 24 — Indianapolis Colts lost 10-24 to Baltimore Ravens, failing to cover +2.5 (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“But if I have a good read in the game and I'm saying, well, this number should be 23, happy to take the Chiefs. Where this week, I had this game at 8.5 for the Chiefs. So 11.5, 10.5 with Carolina Panthers. I think I'm getting three points of value. I love this play for a good backdoor. So I'm on the Panthers this week. Are we putting this in our contest? Let's put it in for right now. I love it. So right now, the games that we love, we have games that we love right now. We love the Lions plus four. We love Washington minus three, but we're hoping to wait because we think it might come down a little bit. We love the Panthers plus 10 and a half.”
KC 33, CAR 31 — Carolina Panthers lost 31-33 to Kansas City Chiefs but covered +10.5 (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“Texans visiting the Jaguars, seven point favorites. This game is the proverbial corner TV game in our virtual landscape. We will not have any interest in this game unless you tell me it was. Okay. No, it's too ugly. Like the pro in me I going to take the Jaguars I know they have the new QB in there but you can run on the Texans and the Jaguars they like to run it with Robinson And everything I seen from the Texans is that they not I don't know, they're not this team that I can trust to be a seven-point favorite over anyone. That's a lot of points for such a bad team to be lying. And Texans have already beat the Jaguars this year. So you think they're going to beat them two times this year both times by more than seven points. I just can't see it. So I'm going to take the Jaguars this week, even though I know they've just been horrendous of late, but I'm going to trust the number and take the Jags here.”
JAX 25, HOU 27 — Jacksonville Jaguars lost 25-27 to Houston Texans but covered +7 (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“So for me, this feels like an autoplay [39:45] where you can't not take the Chargers. [39:47] As long as it's under a field goal, [39:49] I'm happy to take the Chargers here.”
LAC 26, LV 31 — Los Angeles Chargers lost outright 26-31 to Las Vegas Raiders, failing to cover -1.5 (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“but I feel comfortable taking the Dolphins here in a game that I got as a [44:04] field goal. [44:05] So I'm happy backing the Dolphins this week.”
ARI 31, MIA 34 — Miami Dolphins beat Arizona Cardinals 34-31 outright, covering +4.5 (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“So I feel comfortable taking the minus five and a half here with the Buccaneers.”
TB 3, NO 38 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers were blown out 3-38 by New Orleans Saints, failing to cover -5.5 (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“All right. The last game is the Patriots and the Jets. The Patriots are seven point favorites. This team's trash. The Jets are trash. Neither of us want to be able to want to spend our Monday night. Like to me, that Monday night, I'm circling that. That's when I'm finishing the Queens gambit on Netflix. I am not watching this game. Trash, trash game. Betting the Patriots just because I'm just going to keep fading the Jets. It's just been good to me and can't give you a good read on it. Had this number at seven. So technically you're getting good value on the Jets, but I don't care. Taking Cam on the road against just horrible Jets team.”
NYJ 27, NE 30 — New England Patriots won 30-27 outright but only by 3, failing to cover -7 (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“I don't think we've taken Pittsburgh yet. That feels like the smart play this week. You get Pittsburgh out of the way in that tough division. We'll put them on there. And then the other play, which is risky, would be New England. There's no other situation the rest of the year that you're going to take this terrible New England team. Can't do it. No way. That's terrible. That's a terrible idea. Terrible idea. So you heard it from the man himself. We're just going to lock in Pittsburgh for our Survivor. I'll put out a poll anyway because it's fun seeing how people vote. But, yeah, we'll lock in the Steelers for Survivor.”
DAL 19, PIT 24 — Pittsburgh Steelers beat Dallas Cowboys 24-19 outright, winning the survivor pick (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“It's the easiest thing ever, the Chiefs. [19:11] If you don't take the Chiefs this week, you're terrible at Survivor.”
KC 35, NYJ 9 — Kansas City Chiefs beat New York Jets 35-9 outright, winning the survivor pick (ESPN Week 8 scoreboard).
“Yeah, I love it. Let's put it in. Boom! We got the Indianapolis Colts as three-point favorites on the road at the Lions. You know what? I don't care what happens over the course of the week. I don't care how much more money comes in. I don't care how many syndicates come in. Really? It's locked in. Dude, we are locking in the Colts.”
DET 21, IND 41 — Indianapolis Colts routed Detroit Lions 41-21, covering -3 (ESPN Week 8 scoreboard).
“This is so – I love this game. I love that. Like, I had decided to pick the fact that the public has come in now and bet this Chargers team up that I get a plus three with the Broncos. I just – everything you said is so true. Locke has not been good. Even in that Patriots game, he was not good. And I might be really misreading this one with the Broncos team. I don't know. But I love that it's the Chargers coming off Herbert's first win at home, now traveling for a divisional game against a team that just got blown out in a divisional game. It just feels like this is a smart number and a smart play, and the right side is going to be the Broncos. So I'm on the Broncos here.”
DEN 31, LAC 30 — Denver Broncos beat Los Angeles Chargers 31-30 outright, covering +3 (ESPN Week 8 scoreboard).
“So I'm going to play the Bears number here today, four, [43:19] but I'm going to wait to bet more this weekend.”
CHI 23, NO 26 — Chicago Bears lost 23-26 (OT) to New Orleans Saints but covered +4 (ESPN Week 8 scoreboard).
“I'm going to end up playing the Giants plus 10.5 just because it's a primetime game. [49:15] But yeah, I can't put it in.”
NYG 23, TB 25 — New York Giants lost 23-25 to Tampa Bay Buccaneers but covered +10.5 (ESPN Week 8 scoreboard).
“It's 7.5, right, or is it 7? It's 7.5, and it's pretty split. It's 52-48 Saints. The money coming in on the Panthers right now. And I think that's sharp money because I'm with them on this. Oh, it's definitely sharp money. Yeah I like that at 7 where we seen from the Saints team that they not that hard to defend I mean if you take away Kamara and you stack the lineup I know Michael Thompson was to come back. But with no fans for the Saints, it's really affected them at home. We've seen how they haven't played great at home so far. And as long as that number stays at seven and a half and we get Teddy Bridgewater, who's just unbelievable covering as a dog, I like taking them here. I got this number at six. So we're getting a point and a half of value. I like Carolina here.”
NO 27, CAR 24 — Carolina Panthers lost 24-27 to New Orleans Saints but covered +7.5 (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“Seahawks, three and a half point favorites on the road. Three points, three, three and a half on the road at Arizona. I don't trust them. I just don't trust them. You trust Arizona? No, I don't trust either of them. So I don't want to bet this game. Well, we got to pick a side. We can't be those guys. But yeah, man, I'm on Seahawks. 100 percent you could the Cardinals could show up here and they could actually play a decent game but Russell Wilson off a bye week facing a team that's just won two straight on the road more than happy to take the Seahawks here I'd take this number up to five or six so I'm with the public on this one I'm going to be taking the Seahawks interesting very interesting how much of this is”
ARI 37, SEA 34 — Seattle Seahawks lost outright 34-37 (OT) to Arizona Cardinals, failing to cover -3.5 (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“49ers Patriots, 49ers two and a half point dogs on the road. at New England, I feel like I'm being baited here. Because the Patriots are clearly not the same team with Cam Newton playing quarterback. And he hasn't been a guy who, even when they've been winning, was the reason they were winning. Right. And the Niners, to me, I was all over them this past week against your advice, went so far as to go so far from your advice that I actually just bet them to win and cashed. but I still like the Niners' dogs on the road, like in this spot. Why? Like why? Because they won on Sunday night and the Patriots look so bad? Chad, you're better than this. Come on, man. No, you're right. You know what to do here. No. You're telling me I got to back the Patriots here? Yeah, like, I mean, I get it. It's all a new year. Belichick, we know the stats before Brady got to him. He wasn't that great of a coach, apparently. He lost a lot of games before he had Tom Brady on their center. But how am I going to bet on the Patriots going 0-3? And you're backing Jimmy Garoppolo, who he might have had like four passes that were over five yards. Everything he was doing were quick dump-offs to the sidelines, quick passes, because that ankle isn't right. They kept showing it a bunch of times. It's all taped up. So I'm going to back the Patriots. They have no more COVID stoppage of practices. They can get a weekend together. They just looked like a team that was rusty, especially Cam. He looked like he hadn't played in a month. So I like the Patriots team. I especially like that the early money came in on St. Fran and moved this line down below three. Like I get what you're saying. They're trapping us in here. But I think Vegas is like everyone else, so they're just unsure. They don't really trust this Patriots team because they're a different team right now. But I'm going to trust New England, and I'm going to trust that this cost country trip for St. Fran after a big win on primetime games is going to affect them So I like this number a lot I going to take the Patriots Line opened Patriots minus five and a half It is now at two and a half So clearly it been bet down the money 58 of the money So that's usually professional indication of professional support is on San Francisco right now. So, all right, then I'm going to, I'm going to put them on our list right now.”
NE 6, SF 33 — New England Patriots lost 6-33 to San Francisco 49ers, failing to cover -2.5 (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“the bears are visiting the los angeles rams they're five and a half point dogs monday night football my favorite team in prime time that's always uh a little bit disconcerting tell me what you're thinking here simon and you know the meme with paul rudden it's him like eating the wings and you say who would have saw us sitting here who would have thought who'd have thought you know thank you look at us hey look at us look at us huh yeah right the bears man five and one the top of the division i don't know how many people are calling that in may but you're listening to people that talked about the value of the bears and that we we saw this kind of season coming from them so that's what i'm talking about you you are my matthew mcconaughey to my woody All right. All right. All right. For those who don't know, follow Simon Hunter on Twitter. There was a beautiful picture of McConaughey and Harrelson together swimming. And Simon's like, this is me in chat. Just pure bliss, man. Time is a flat circle. Two guys who have, who have just figured out how to live in every single way. And now that I warmed up all you bear fans, I'm sorry to say this, but this is easy pick of the Rams easy play of the week bet your balls on the Rams Yeah you probably right All the public coming in on the Bears after a big road win People are starting to believe The Rams played horribly against San Fran. And it's just an easy game where the Bears, they're going to win a lot of games and they're a great team. But they're going to have weeks like this where it's just going to catch up to them. And, I mean, how many wins straight are they on right now? They have four straight wins. Yeah. No, no. They've won five, but they lost to the Colts three weeks ago, so they have two straight wins. Okay, right. They lost to the Colts, then they beat the Bucs, then they beat the Panthers. Just looking at it, it's really tough to win two road games in a row, let alone two ones that you're flying down North Carolina, now you're flying back, and now you're flying all the way out to the West Coast. So I think just situationally, the Bears defense, they're going to have a letdown game, especially indoor on this turf field. I think the speed's going to be too much for them to handle with the Rams. And I like the Rams here in a bounce back spot. And a lot of people are going to be tying a lot of money into the Bears in this game, especially in teasers, because you can get this number above 10, put it in a teaser. I like the Rams here. I like them big.”
LAR 24, CHI 10 — Los Angeles Rams beat Chicago Bears 24-10, covering -5.5 (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“A young team like the Panthers that went four in a row. So I'm going to back the veteran QB on the Bears and the veteran defense of the Bears to go down to North Carolina and get a win here. And I like that we're getting two and a half still. I love this Bears team right now in this game.”
CAR 16, CHI 23 — Chicago Bears won 23-16 at Carolina Panthers, covering +2.5 (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“I think the Cowboys are totally the right side here But here our dilemma So right now I have starred of the games we like You like Washington. I like Washington on the money line, but we're not going to put that one in the contest. I think we both like the Falcons for the contest. I think we both like the Bears for the contest. Colts and Eagles are two teams we're probably going to bet, but I don't think we like them for the contest. Pats, we love for the contest. The Finns will talk if Flacco plays. Miami against the Jets. The Buccaneers, we love. We want to marry the Buccaneers. Right now, it's plus one and a half against the Packers. We're hoping it gets a plus three.”
TB 38, GB 10 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers routed Green Bay Packers 38-10, covering +1.5 (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“point favorites, Andy Dalton and the Cowboys. I don't know that the adjustment, because like the Cowboys probably would have been three point favorites at home. So we're talking about five and a half points. Is Dak Prescott worth five and a half points? Is that what you think this adjustment is? Where would you have this right now? I honestly think it's a good number. I had Dallas at plus two. So it's like two and a half, three right now. That's a pretty good number. my whole thinking here is that Dalton we know he's not that bad of a quarterback he's not very good but when he had weapons around him he made the bangles a playoff team year in and year out when he had good weapons around him so what we've seen from the Cardinals they can't run the ball and it doesn't seem like their defense can get consistent stops on third down and I know how bad the Cowboys defense is so I know they're going to give up a bunch of plays and And this will be a big sweat as a Cowboy backer. But I have to take the Cowboys here, especially the first start for Dalton.”
DAL 10, ARI 38 — Dallas Cowboys lost 10-38 to Arizona Cardinals, failing to cover +2.5 (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“little rusty. I'm going to take the Bears here, and I'm going to take the five and a half. And I think by game time, this number is going to go down because I think the Sharps are going to join me on that.”
CHI 20, TB 19 — Bears beat Buccaneers 20-19; Bears won outright, easily covering +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“so I can't not take the Eagles here at seven and a half and it's just such a letdown game for the Steelers where oh they've had a week off they're going to come out slow and it's going to come down to the very end and I could see the Steelers coming covering seven but I love the I love the extra hook with the seven and a half for the Eagles no no no here's why this game probably should have been if the Steelers had played this past week they're beating the Titans that's just me saying it, they'd be a much bigger favorite over the Eagles at this point. And I feel like you're only you're getting a little bit of value like on the Steelers Because the Eagles finally won a game and it was in prime time and they beat up on the Niners. What's your number here? You should make this number nine. That's what it should be. No, I honestly, I had it at four and a half. And then after the injuries to the Eagles on the Sunday night game, I moved it to six. I'm with you. Like, this is an easy play. The Steelers should kill these guys. But are we sure the Steelers are good? Like, who have they played? Go through who they played. So that's one of those where I'm going to back the Eagles here and think I need to see the Steelers prove it to me. They're not playing the Giants. They're not playing Houston. They're not playing these teams that we have already seen. They're not that good. So I'm going to back the Eagles here and I'm going to let the public come in on the Steelers. All right, fine. We'll take the Eagles.”
PIT 38, PHI 29 — Steelers beat Eagles 38-29; Eagles lost by 9, failing to cover +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“so I'm going to bet on a bounce back spot here and keep fading the football team I'll take the Rams hopefully it gets the seven so I get good value but it's at seven and a half right now so we might want to put the Rams on our list yeah especially if the line keeps coming down just for everything I've seen from Washington they're they're banged up on their interior and you can run on them and that's like the same reason I liked the Rams last week they're a running team so if you can get if they get it turned on the ground that's when golf really takes off so I'm going to back them here and take this number, even though it's high.”
WSH 10, LAR 30 — Rams beat Washington 30-10, winning by 20 to cover -7.5 (ESPN box score).
“i'm gonna take the cardinals give it to me six and a half i'm happy”
NYJ 10, ARI 30 — Cardinals beat Jets 30-10, winning by 20 to cover -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“All right. Dolphins visiting the Niners. Dolphins look like eight point underdogs. Boy. Boy, oh boy. Boy, oh boy, man. We've put a lot behind Ryan Fitzpatrick so far this year. We really have. Fitzmagic. Fitzmagic. We have invested emotionally. We have invested spiritually. And we have invested financially. And they don't have the same sort of edge that they had last year. Like the value is certainly not there that it was there last year. but eight points against this 49ers team. There we go. Say that's value. It is. I hate being the guy that's like, Oh, we got unlucky on our bets last week, but it's like, how are you going to kick four field goals against Russell Wilson? What are we doing here? If, if my team is in the red zone, I'm playing Russell Wilson. I'm either going for it on fourth down to keep trying to get touchdowns, or I'm going to just give it back to him. Cause three points does nothing against to this guy. It was brutal. He ripped our soul out last week, Russell Wilson, because they had that back door all lined up, Miami. And he just put a bomb down the field, went down the field, and scored another touchdown. I go, nope, I'm Russell Wilson. I'm going for MVP this year. You're not getting no backdoor on me. So I would back Miami. I like that number. That's a big number. I know that they can be run on, and that's what the 49ers do really good. But just like what we saw with the Eagles, there's just too many replacements. Like, yeah, Kittle might kill us and that's going to hurt. We know what it is with Fitzmagic. He's going to have down weeks and he's going to have up weeks. So I'll take this big number and I'll back the Dolphins,”
SF 17, MIA 43 — Dolphins beat 49ers 43-17; Dolphins won outright, easily covering +8 (ESPN box score).
“But I cannot bet the Cowboys minus nine and a half You going to so you going to bet this game regardless Yeah Like I going to take the Giants money line That how much I don believe in this Cowboys team right now Wow. I think something's wrong with them in a normal year. If they had a pack house, this is a great spot for the Cowboys. This is that they should kill the Giants here, but I'm going to trust that with the sparse fans down in Dallas and the Giants been playing, they played better on the road than they do at home. They've covered twice this year and both times it's been on the road. I'm like, I'm going to ride that trend. I'm going to take the Giants here. You are going to take the Giants who are scoring about three and a half points a game with a quarterback who can't convert a third down unless he's lucky enough to fumble the ball forward. And you've got them going on the road, even in a 17,000 person, you know, fan capacity against a quarterback who has thrown for more yards in the first four games than any quarterback in NFL history who is against a team that is desperate for a win. Desperate. And this Giants team is terrible defensively. And you're telling me you will bet the money line in this game. What is the money line on this game right now? So it's nine and a half. So I'm guessing it's like 320. It's off the top of my head. But this is like I every week I do money line parlays. And we talked about like I really like the Browns and the Eagles last week. So I put their money lines together. So you like those are you get insane odds on these big money lines so i'll put a grand it's to win 10 grand and then i'll just wait live watching the game like of the 49ers and eagles you just hedge live so say the eagles i forget what point it was but they got up um i think it was a touchdown that's when i just take the 49ers at seven and a half or eight plus uh plus eight as a dog and try to hit the middle so with this week we haven't got to the games yet like the vikings money line with like the Chargers money line. Those are kind of things like I'll stack those like you in your wildest streams go. There's no way the Chargers will beat the Saints and there's no way the Vikings who just got their first one are going to beat the unbeatable Russell Wilson. But these are just games where the lines have gotten so high because these teams are so undervalued that if I just hit these kind of money line parlays just three times in a season, I've doubled I've doubled that original bankroll or tripled it. So I don't want to steer people wrong here. I would not recommend to anybody listening here to take the Giants' money line. But this is one of those where I think I'm getting an extra two and a half numbers of value and that goes into the money line. So I'm gonna take that just cause I think there's value on it. All right, by the way, the number on the money line right now is plus 350, Giants plus 350.”
NYG 34, DAL 37 — Cowboys beat Giants 37-34; Giants lost outright, busting the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“And so give me the bears plus two and a half at home.”
CHI 11, IND 19 — Colts beat Bears 19-11; Bears lost by 8, failing to cover +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“because people might be down on the Cardinals because they just looked really bad at home. But I like the Cardinals here. I'd like them to bounce back against a really bad defense. And I know Teddy can sling it. He can keep teams in games. But he struggled last week in the red zone, and he struggled the week before in the red zone and the week before. So it's three straight weeks now that I've seen him struggling in the red zone. Where Kyler, when he gets down there, he usually puts it away. So I'm going to be back on the Cardinals this week, even though I know that's going to be a public play. You know what? I'm 100% with you. And I think we're getting value here. I think this is a public perception play in that I actually think the line hasn't moved at all. And maybe you're not, maybe you're telling me something and without saying it, I don't know where you have this power rated, but the Panthers are as high as they're going to get right now. And the Cardinals as low as they've been all season. So I gotta be getting value. I don't even know how you power rated this. Tell me what you did. So I had this at Cardinals five and a half and it opened, I believe at four. And it's so the sharps came in and they hit this Panthers line because it's down to three and a half, despite 71% of the bets being on the Cardinals. So I get their angle that they think the Panthers could keep this close against a team on the Cardinals that looked sloppy last week. But I think they're just undervaluing and still Kyler Murray and what he can do. So we're going to be on the Cardinals. That's what I'm thinking. Yeah, let's put them in.”
CAR 31, ARI 21 — Panthers beat Cardinals 31-21; Cardinals lost by 10, failing to cover -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Bills, Bills visiting the Raiders, the Ascendant, the Miracle, the Bills from Buffalo. Matt Mitchell, our podcast producers, favorite team of any team in any sport. The Bills are three-point favorites at the Raiders in Las Vegas. We'll wait and see what the injury report is with the Raiders, because they had a lot of guys get banged up in that New England game. And Waller barely even played for them, which was a big deal at tight end. And this is another one of those games where we're going to buy low in Vegas because the Bills just had an incredible comeback. No, you can tell me. I love the Raiders here. I think that with everything going with the Bills, they're flying really high. This is a nice little letdown spot for them. So this is one of those they're going to come in feeling really good. And I could just see the Raiders keeping it close and eventually pulling out a win at the very end. So I'm backing the Raiders here.”
LV 23, BUF 30 — Bills beat Raiders 30-23; Raiders lost by 7, failing to cover +3 (ESPN box score).
“We are going to be on the Rams this week. We continue to thrive and survive.”
LAR 17, NYG 9 — Rams beat Giants 17-9 outright; survivor pick on the Rams advances (ESPN box score).
“And different books have this up to seven and a half now with Washington. So when I look at this football team there, I was there's the strength of the whole team is that D line. And that's why I like Kyler so much last week. He can expose a D line like that. Cause he's so quick. He can get around that stuff Well we got Baker who a first read quarterback that stands back there like a statue for the most part He doesn scramble much I do like this number a lot with Washington The only thing that's giving me hesitation is their back-to-back road game. So seven and a half, that's really enticing because the Browns, they're not a team that can hold onto these leads. Burrow looked incredible against them passing because they're really banged up right now, the Browns in the secondary. So I'm big here on Washington, but I get it. They're so ugly. We don't have to put them in. Well, dude, you're the professional. This is part of the game. We're not supposed to bring a public mindset to these things because it's people like me that would say, I'm not betting the Giants. I'm not betting Washington. Being a professional better means you got to bet the teams that you got to hold your nose on because that's where the value is going to be. it's true if you're telling me washington is like according to your models what where do you have this game i get at six so i got pretty much we're gonna if it goes up seven and a half we're gonna point a half of value that's why i do really like washington here because it's people are buying in on the browns again they're buying high and no one wants to back washington after they just got dominated by what we were just talking about maybe the mvp of the league in kyler murray so i do like this washington number here we can put it in all right let's put it in Let's put it in. We're putting it in.”
CLE 34, WSH 20 — Browns beat Washington 34-20; Washington lost by 14, failing to cover +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“They are seven-point dogs playing without Christian McCaffrey on the road at Los Angeles. Tell me why in the world would money be coming in on the Panthers here, Simon Hunter? That's shocking, that higher percentage, because the public must not want to touch this game at all. So that's just pure sharp money, it sounds like to me. From their angle, I think Teddy Bridgewater at seven, that was a good number because in no world are the Chargers blowing anyone out. They're going to be an easy backdoor team. It feels like the whole thing. year. We might have just saw them play the game of the year for them last week. Like that was their Super Bowl. And you got the Panthers coming off a divisional blown out loss. So I'm with them. I back the Panthers here with the points. I would definitely wait to see what QB starting. I feel honestly better when Taylor's starting than I do Herbert. So I'd wait on that number if you're going to bet it. But you like the Panthers in that spot. I do. I think that it's after like a a game they just had where it was close and they made a couple little mistakes where it made it turn into a blowout. They should have covered that number. I think you're getting good value here on the next – the week after the Chargers should have won against the Chiefs on this number. This number should be three and a half, four. Are you saying we should put this in? Is that what you're saying? I'd put the Panthers in for now, yeah.”
LAC 16, CAR 21 — Panthers lost to Chargers 21-16 (Panthers won the game); Panthers covered +7 with room to spare (ESPN box score).
“Well, now we've got our favorite team in football. Like, you know, the Arizona Cardinals are five-and-a-half-point favorites at home. The numbers moved up from three-and-a-half. Not a surprise because you've got the majority of the tickets coming in on the Cardinals right now against the Detroit Lions, who are really looking like a train wreck. But there is no but. I actually don't know why we wouldn't back the Cardinals here. Yeah, we're playing with fire if we do it again. I'm not totally against it because I can easily see Kyler covering that number against a really banged-up Lions defense. And the Sharps are coming in on this number. So I think it opened 6.5, 7. Now it's down to 5.5, even though a lot of the bets are on Cardinals. And I think they're banking on what I talked about earlier with the 0-2, 0-2. Like 0-2 against the spread, 0-2 straight up. The Lions are due here to cover a number. But I still think Vegas is overvaluing the Lions as if they're still healthy. And we have a Cardinals team who is healthy. So I do think we're getting the best of the number here. I'd be cool with taking the Cardinals. I think I want to, like, I agree with you. We're playing with fire. We keep backing the Cardinals. We love this team.”
ARI 23, DET 26 — Lions beat Cardinals 26-23; Cardinals lost by 3, failing to cover -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“And I love the value that – when I saw this game come out, I really thought it was going to be 3 or 2.5. And when they opened at 4.5, I really jumped on it. It really hasn't moved. Some books have it down to 4, the Patriots. But if it stays at 4 or 4.5, that's an automatic play for me in this competition.”
SEA 35, NE 30 — Seahawks beat Patriots 35-30; Patriots lost by 5, failing to cover +4.5 (ESPN box score).
“So Miami 5.5 is on the board for us.”
MIA 28, BUF 31 — Bills beat Dolphins 31-28; Dolphins lost by only 3, covering +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“Yeah If DraftKings keeps it at six and a half that what it at right now on their site that an autoplay I love I think we gave it out at 50 or 55 to one The Cardinals way way way early in May We did it at 50 to one. I bought it. Yeah, and like we said, it's just one of those we're betting on a player making a second-year leap, and I love Murray. So here I have this game at nine and a half. So even if it goes to seven, we can put it on the side. It's one of those I'd be willing to put in because I love the value.”
ARI 30, WSH 15 — Cardinals beat Washington 30-15, winning by 15 to cover -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“but it feels like an automatic bet for me. [26:21] All right, we're putting the Jags in.”
JAX 27, IND 20 — Jaguars beat the Colts 27-20 outright, well covering the +8 spread (ESPN box score).
“here from Big Ben. All right. These are our final five picks as of right now. Keep track At Simon Hunter 10, keep track in what I write about in actionnetwork.com. We'll be updating it. But as of right now, Picks lock on Sunday. We're starting here. This is our perfect portfolio as of right now to win $1 million. Jacks plus eight against the Colts. Ravens. Ravens minus eight against the Baker Mayfield Browns.”
BAL 38, CLE 6 — Ravens beat the Browns 38-6, covering the -8 spread by 24 points (ESPN box score).
“So are we putting the Cardinals in our batch of five? [43:05] I'd put them in.”
ARI 24, SF 20 — Cardinals beat the 49ers 24-20 outright, covering the +7 spread (ESPN box score).
“We got the Cards plus seven on the road against the 49ers. We got the Rams plus three at home against the Cowboys. And we got the Steelers minus five and a half. We like them up to minus seven on the road against the Giants.”
PIT 26, NYG 16 — Steelers beat the Giants 26-16, covering the -5.5 spread by 4.5 points (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Steelers at plus 350 to [3:51] win the AFC North.”
Steelers finished 12-4 and won the AFC North in 2020 (ESPN standings).
“It's one of my favorite win total unders, [5:14] especially if you could find a six, [5:16] under six minus 125 minus 130.”
Bengals finished 4-11-1 in 2020, under the 6-win total (ESPN standings). (4-11-1)
“I also bet the Steelers to win their division.”
Steelers finished 12-4 and won the AFC North in 2020 (ESPN standings).
“with, I made six futures bets between division winners and Super Bowl winners. We talked about some of these last week. I bet the Bears to win their division and win the Super Bowl. I bet Minnesota to win the Super Bowl. I bet the Arizona Cardinals to win the Super Bowl at 50 to 1. I also bet the Steelers to win their division. And then the last bet that I made, the Denver Broncos at 50-1. And I feel like a lot of it has to do with their defense. And sort of I do think they're going to be improving. I do think that, like, in a quarterback-driven league, Drew Locke was serviceable. I wasn't like, oh, my God, he's Kyler Murray. but I like what he can do compared to not throwing a game away and having a defense that I think can be really aggressive and potentially sneak it out, sneak out some wins in the playoffs. If things bounced it away, if Patrick Mahomes is injured, if they end up not seeing him till the AFC conference conference title game. Things like that. You're in that game. You get a shot. So I went with the Broncos at 50 to 1.”
Broncos finished 5-11 and missed the 2020 playoffs; did not win Super Bowl LV (ESPN standings).
“For me, it's really two teams, but the one I took was earliest [36:59] was the Pittsburgh Steelers at 25-1.”
Steelers lost to the Browns 48-37 in the Wild Card round and did not win Super Bowl LV (ESPN).
“I would say my favorite in terms of all-around value is the Seattle Seahawks at plus 220 to win the NFC West.”
Seahawks finished 12-4 and won the NFC West in 2020 (ESPN standings).
“Yeah, I totally agree. I actually bet the Bears around that same number, something like 450, 425 a couple months ago. I think this is a three team race.”
Packers won the NFC North at 13-3; Bears finished 8-8, second in the division (ESPN standings).
“The Falcons are actually one of my favorite win total under bets at seven and a half.”
Falcons finished 4-12 in 2020, under the 7.5-win total (ESPN standings). (4-12)
“And that leads me back to the one that I see the best value at. It was the same one I see the best value at to win their division, and that's Seattle. They are plus 1050 at DraftKings, so it's a little better than 10 to 1. That implies a 9% chance of them to win the NFC. Guess what? They've won it in 25% of Russell Wilson's seasons as a pro.”
Seahawks lost to the Rams 30-20 in the Wild Card round (Jan 9, 2021) and did not win the NFC (ESPN).
“get takeaways, not being able to get key stops on third down. So low on the, I can't see the Giants or the Redskins winning the division. If you want to argue for those, maybe Raybon will. Sure. I'm just low, a lot lower in the Eagles and a lot higher in the Cowboys that I like the Cowboys to win that division. All right. So right now the Cowboys, I think it's Raphkings are minus 110 to win the NFC East. Raybon, what do you think of his choice for the NFC East and the Dallas Cowboys?”
Cowboys finished 6-10; Washington (7-9) won the NFC East in 2020 (ESPN standings).
“Because that is the Chicago bears who are about plus 380 I think we got them at draft Kings I got them earlier this year I got them at plus 425 to win the NFC North”
Packers won the NFC North at 13-3; Bears finished 8-8, second in the division (ESPN standings).
“on the Giants. To me, that actually, I know you say it's disgusting. I say it's kind of a no-brainer. And again, I'm not doing this to bet the obvious team at sort of low numbers, right? I'm doing this because I want to invest a little bit now and make a little bit later. And if I lose it, it's not so much that I'm like that disappointed. Right? So I love, love, love the Giants at 10 to one,”
Washington won the NFC East at 7-9; the Giants finished 6-10 in 2020 (ESPN standings).
“So here what interesting about this I have three teams that I love that I already bet Superbowl futures on that are from the I bet four Superbowl five Superbowl futures and three of them are on NFC teams Are you ready? If you say the bears, I'm leaving the podcast. I've got the Cardinals at 50 to one.”
Tampa Bay, not Arizona, won Super Bowl LV 31-9 over Kansas City; the Cardinals missed the playoffs (ESPN).
“So here what interesting about this I have three teams that I love that I already bet Superbowl futures on that are from the I bet four Superbowl five Superbowl futures and three of them are on NFC teams Are you ready? If you say the bears, I'm leaving the podcast. I've got the Cardinals at 50 to one. There you go. I've got the Vikings at 25 to one.”
Vikings finished 7-9 and missed the 2020 playoffs; did not win Super Bowl LV (ESPN standings).
“So here what interesting about this I have three teams that I love that I already bet Superbowl futures on that are from the I bet four Superbowl five Superbowl futures and three of them are on NFC teams Are you ready? If you say the bears, I'm leaving the podcast. I've got the Cardinals at 50 to one. There you go. I've got the Vikings at 25 to one. Yeah. And I have the Chicago bears at 40.”
Bears lost to the Saints 21-9 in the Wild Card round and did not win Super Bowl LV (ESPN).
“If I got one bet, I'll go Lakers.”
Lakers defeated the Heat 4-2 to win the 2020 NBA Finals.
“the win total is eight and a half and i think some books are gonna have a plus money so basically last year was a season from hell they went eight and eight so if nick foals or even trubisky i don't love trubisky but i think he can run the offense he'll be better than obviously was last year, hopefully. It just lines up perfectly with everyone knows Green Bay is going to not have a great season as they did last year. There's going to be wins in that division for the Bears to get, and they're going to have an easier schedule. The eight and a half feels a gimme where I had them graded at 10 wins for the season, the Bears. So I really liked the eight and a half of plus money.”
Chicago finished the 2020 regular season 8-8, not clearing the 8.5-win total, so the over loses (ESPN standings). (Bears 8-8 (8 wins))
“of plus money. What do you think of the Bears at plus 390 to win the division? I bet it already I mean I I just I like the value there that people forget they didn't win that division because of their offense”
Green Bay won the NFC North at 13-3; Chicago finished second at 8-8, so the Bears division future loses (ESPN standings).
“But some of the hot button teams Miami over 6 plus 107 And I going to be on that under just because I don think I think they are going to have Tua I think Tua is going to be playing early days. And what we saw last year, it was obviously great coaching, but it was a lot of fits. I mean, that game against the Patriots in the season, that was one of the more incredible comebacks. And that's just what that guy does. He's a never die kind of guy. Tua is going to be a rookie. He's coming from Alabama. he's coming off a major injury that that's all those signs point to first year woes a good a good season for them will be four to five wins so that that's a big under um from the six”
Miami finished the 2020 regular season 10-6, clearing the 6-win total, so the under loses (ESPN standings). (Dolphins 10-6 (10 wins))
“The last one I'll give out, just for Darren, I do like the Jets over 7.”
The Jets finished the 2020 regular season 2-14, well under the 7-win total, so the over loses (ESPN standings). (Jets 2-14 (2 wins))
“Who's going to win the NBA title? The overwhelming favorites, in my opinion, are the Clippers and the Bucs. But that wasn't the question. It was who are we betting to win the NBA title? And you bet numbers as much as even more so than you bet the team most of the time. And I am all in on the 76ers in terms of a futures bet. Like you said, it was 13 to one.”
The Los Angeles Lakers won the 2019-20 NBA championship over Miami 4-2; the 76ers were swept 4-0 by Boston in the first round, so the 76ers futures bet loses (Wikipedia 2020 NBA playoffs summary).
“I bet the Clippers at plus 350.”
The Los Angeles Lakers won the 2019-20 NBA championship; the Clippers lost the conference semifinals to Denver 4-3 after leading 3-1, so the Clippers +350 futures bet loses (Wikipedia 2020 NBA playoffs summary).
“potential way in riding on a NASCAR grouper here at the Action Network. A grouper is when all of us go in on the same bet. PJ Walsh, our NASCAR editor, pinged the entire team about a month and a half ago and said, listen, I got a bet on NASCAR that we can get a ton of value on right now. He explained what he did to us. So the bet I convinced everybody to make at the Action Network is Ross Chastain, the one that they call in the 500. Because I say jump and you say how high. In all seriousness, though, Ross Chastain was priced as a long set of 201.”
Denny Hamlin won the 2020 Daytona 500, edging Ryan Blaney; Ross Chastain finished 25th after a late wreck, so the Chastain-to-win futures bet loses (Wikipedia race summary, corroborating ESPN's confirmation of Hamlin as winner).
“Like, even Patrick Mahomes. Like, Scooch was saying in the podcast earlier that Patrick Mahomes, the wise guys liked his over 29 and a half rushing yards total. I actually hate that. I think it'll be much under. But I do think this game plays to under, and you're always going to get value in the under on individual props too because that's how sort of bookmakers think about those things. Right, and the reason the Sharps are on that, I took that number too, is just because he's really been showing here that he's just desperate to win.”
Patrick Mahomes rushed 9 times for 29 yards in Super Bowl LIV, under the 29.5 rushing yards line (ESPN box score). (Patrick Mahomes: 29 rushing yards)
“I was all over Titans, plus 7.5.”
KC 35, TEN 24 — Chiefs beat Titans 35-24 in the AFC Championship; Titans lost by 11, so Titans +7.5 does not cover (ESPN box score).
“So I could see why everybody's on the Niners in this one, but come playoff time, seven and a half points is a lot of points, So I'll just say that. Give me the Niners.”
SF 37, GB 20 — 49ers beat Packers 37-20 in the NFC Championship; 49ers won by 17, covering -7.5 (ESPN box score).
“I like the under 52.5 for the Chiefs Titans.”
KC 35, TEN 24 — Chiefs beat Titans 35-24 in the AFC Championship, a combined 59 points, over the 52.5 total (ESPN box score).
“winning percentage on the parlay no surprise yeah simon hunter has taught us so much this year about betting it's insane it's insane all right so the to to recap simon hunter is on the over 52 and a half 53 in chiefs titans he's on the chiefs chiefs at minus seven and a half all the way up all the way up to infinity because this game's not getting out there but i like it up to 13 that's at 13 he's on the packers under packers niners under 45 and on the packers at plus seven and a half”
SF 37, GB 20 — 49ers beat Packers 37-20 in the NFC Championship; Packers lost by 17, so Packers +7.5 does not cover (ESPN box score).
“he's on the packers under packers niners under 45 and on the packers at plus seven and a half”
SF 37, GB 20 — 49ers beat Packers 37-20 in the NFC Championship, a combined 57 points, over the 45 total (ESPN box score).
“You took the Vikings. So my two options are the Chiefs at nine and a half or the Ravens at nine. you know what? Screw it. I'm all in on the Chiefs.”
KC 51, HOU 31 — Chiefs beat Texans 51-31 (ESPN AFC Divisional), margin +20 vs line -9.5; Kansas City covers.
“All right, Dallas is visiting Washington. Just give me the Redskins. You have Dallas as an 11-point favorite. Give me the Redskins. Go, now. Well, possibly no Dwayne Haskins. So he's questionable. That just came over this morning. So Dallas, we have an 11-point favorite. Obviously, with the Dallas loss yesterday to Philly, they need some stuff to happen. They need Philly to lose. They have to win this one. I'll take the Redskins. Dallas shouldn't be 11-point favorites against anybody right now.”
DAL 47, WSH 16 — Cowboys beat Washington 47-16 (ESPN); Washington margin -31 vs line +11, does not cover.
“Five-point favorites against the Giants and Daniel Jones. Give me the Giants all freaking day.”
PHI 34, NYG 17 — Eagles beat Giants 34-17 (ESPN); New York margin -17 vs line +5, does not cover.
“Visiting Denver, Drew Locke looks really, really good I watched a lot of that Lions game yesterday it happened to be on in the bar that I was watching and they were down, what, 2017 or 17-13 and he had two really good drives and that defense shut the Lions down and they ended up winning that game going away handily as a favorite. Three and a half points at home. I like Denver here Yeah Yeah So we tried to be we hung three and the money drove it up to three and a half But you know the public is actually on Oakland in this one”
DEN 16, OAK 15 — Broncos beat Raiders 16-15 (ESPN); Denver margin +1 vs line -3.5, does not cover.
“I've already bet Miami plus 16.”
NE 24, MIA 27 — Dolphins beat Patriots 27-24 (ESPN), margin +3 vs line +16; Miami covers.
“Darren has sent his picks. He wants Miami plus 16.”
NE 24, MIA 27 — Dolphins beat Patriots 27-24 (ESPN), margin +3 vs line +16; Miami covers.
“He wants Colts minus 3.5,”
JAX 38, IND 20 — Jaguars beat Colts 38-20 (ESPN); Indianapolis margin -18 vs line -3.5, does not cover.
“I mean, the Titans, that's just an amazing, amazing spot for them. This line's going to keep going up, I'm telling you. Like, I got it when it opened at 2.5. I'm seeing some books already at 5.5. So it's going to keep going up. So I hope it stays under 7.”
HOU 14, TEN 35 — Titans beat Texans 35-14 (ESPN), margin +21 vs line +2.5; Tennessee covers.
“It crazy how every year they just don put it together They just have so much talent All right so these are our picks right now Assuming you know you and I will continue to discuss over the course of the week, as will Darren. Miami plus 16. Miami plus 16. Colts minus 3.5. Titans as long as it stays under 7. Denver minus 3.5.”
DEN 16, OAK 15 — Broncos beat Raiders 16-15 (ESPN); Denver margin +1 vs line -3.5, does not cover.
“Seriously. I'm going with the, you know who I love? Miami Dolphins. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Give me the Miami Dolphins. That's what I'm doing. Okay. They are one and a half point favorites over the Cincinnati Bungles. We call it the Burrow Bowl. Burrow Bowl.”
MIA 38, CIN 35 — Dolphins beat Bengals 38-35 in OT (ESPN), margin +3 vs line -1.5; Miami covers.
“And the Saints look like world beaters, but now they're going outdoors against an AFC team where they don't really need this win that much. I mean, I know they wanted to stay up in the top seed, but the Titans really need this game. So I love that we're getting plus three.”
NO 38, TEN 28 — Saints beat Titans 38-28 (ESPN); Tennessee margin -10 vs line +3, does not cover.
“I say minus 10 Baltimore over the Browns.”
CLE 15, BAL 31 — Ravens beat Browns 31-15 (ESPN), margin +16 vs line -10; Baltimore covers.
“I think I like Pittsburgh minus 2.5.”
PIT 10, BUF 17 — Bills beat Steelers 17-10; Pittsburgh margin -7 vs line -2.5 busts (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“I do like Minnesota minus two and a half. I do too in the sense that it's the Chargers. I mean, the Jaguars, they really are. They're one of the worst teams I've seen this year. Like the last couple weeks, they've completely fallen apart and given up. And the Chargers exploded on. That was a lot of – we know the Chargers are a good team. But I think in this matchup, everything really does favor the Vikings. I mean, they're probably going to have a home crowd here at Charger Stadium. So I like that Vikings number, too. What did you rate it at? Not getting crazy good value. I had Vikings minus three and a half. Dude, you're over a key number at one point. Like, that was the look-ahead line. The look-ahead line was three and a half or four. So I feel like you're getting great value there. Great value. You're getting great value. It's making me nervous, though, that it's coming down. because that means my brother and the Sharps, they were the ones taking the Chargers, so they're the ones that are betting it down. Dude, I don't think so. I think this game reopened at 2.5. I don think people were betting it I think it just that how it reopened after the Chargers beat up the Jags last week Wow that actually really surprising Here are six games. Go ahead. What do you want to say? I would say if we really liked, I mean, with these big dogs, a team that I like that's just a short favorite that I know it's probably not the greatest spot just because I've been winning so much on the Titans and we haven't really been playing them. Yeah. I do think it is another spot where it's a divisional game and they're at home. So this is kind of a game where you can back the Titans, but I know you're probably going to say that we're not getting any value because it's already up to minus three. So you're probably right. We probably lost that value. I think we totally lost it. I think we only play it if it gets back to two and a half. Yeah, I'm just looking at that. I'm seeing it's updated. It's minus three. That's probably what they're going to put in the contest. So, yeah, we can pass on the Titans. All right, so here's the games we got. We're definitely on the Redskins. We have to choose one from Darren, Rams or Seattle. I personally, I'll feel better about just doing Seattle. Okay. Because I think they gave up, but we'll see what Darren wants to do when we talk to him. I think he'd prefer Seattle. Okay. so then we have redskins in seattle so we have three and four to choose from denver plus 10 Steelers minus 2 Minnesota minus 2 Titans minus 3 Let's do the Titans off. Let's lock in the Steelers. That's probably my favorite sharp line we have. Okay. And then we can do the chalk with the Vikings, because that's a good number with them. As long as it stays under 3, I'll take that. I agree. So then we got Denver plus 10.5, or Denver plus 10? Yeah, yeah, definitely keep downgrading. We'll monitor that, see what's going on in the homes, because that's a really good number. All right, so here's what we got. Redskins, plus 4.5. Seattle, minus 6. Denver, plus 10, 10.5. Steelers, minus 2.5. Minnesota, minus 2.5.”
LAC 10, MIN 39 — Vikings beat Chargers 39-10; Minnesota margin +29 vs line -2.5 covers (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“We're definitely on the Redskins. We have to choose one from Darren, Rams or Seattle. I personally, I'll feel better about just doing Seattle. Okay. Because I think they gave up, but we'll see what Darren wants to do when we talk to him. I think he'd prefer Seattle. Okay. so then we have redskins in seattle so we have three and four to choose from denver plus 10 Steelers minus 2 Minnesota minus 2 Titans minus 3 Let's do the Titans off. Let's lock in the Steelers. That's probably my favorite sharp line we have. Okay. And then we can do the chalk with the Vikings, because that's a good number with them. As long as it stays under 3, I'll take that. I agree. So then we got Denver plus 10.5, or Denver plus 10? Yeah, yeah, definitely keep downgrading. We'll monitor that, see what's going on in the homes, because that's a really good number. All right, so here's what we got. Redskins, plus 4.5.”
WSH 27, PHI 37 — Eagles beat Washington 37-27; Washington margin -10 vs line +4.5 busts (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“Seattle, minus 6.”
CAR 24, SEA 30 — Seahawks beat Panthers 30-24; Seattle margin +6 vs line -6 pushes (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“This wise guy is betting the Jacks plus three.”
JAX 10, LAC 45 — Chargers beat Jaguars 45-10; Jacksonville margin -35 vs line +3 busts (ESPN Week 14 scoreboard).
“Do you guys like the Steelers? I actually like Arizona in that side more than the Steelers. So do I. I wrote down Arizona plus three. You don't like that, Simon? We could stay away. I do like Arizona. Because it's one of those that Hodges, he's a rookie quarterback too. So, I mean, people are taking a rookie quarterback favorite on the road. It's kind of surprising. Let's take Arizona there. I'll take Arizona. I'll do Arizona. Arizona, it's the end of the year. We keep betting bad teams. We only have one team with a winning record in our five Most teams have fewer than three wins That how you bet You bet bad teams You a line I'm happy for the first week. For the first week on this podcast, I'm happy. I feel like I'm contributing. Kansas City, plus three. The LA Rams, plus one and a half. Miami, plus five and a half. Cincy, as long as we get them above plus eight. Arizona plus two and a half those are our five boys”
ARI 17, PIT 23 — Steelers beat Cardinals 23-17; Arizona margin -6 vs line +2.5 busts (ESPN Week 14 scoreboard).
“I'm going with the Denver Broncos plus nine.”
HOU 24, DEN 38 — Broncos beat Texans 38-24; Denver margin +14 vs line +9 covers (ESPN Week 14 scoreboard).
“Yeah, I don't love anything. I mean, I favor the 49ers against the Saints. I favor the Chiefs against the Patriots. But I think as far as a play that I feel really strongly about that nobody cares about is probably the Falcons against the Panthers, minus two and a half.”
ATL 40, CAR 20 — Falcons beat Panthers 40-20; Atlanta margin +20 vs line -2.5 covers (ESPN Week 14 scoreboard).
“Five and a half, Miami against the Jets.”
NYJ 22, MIA 21 — Jets beat Dolphins 22-21; Miami margin -1 vs line +5.5 covers (ESPN Week 14 scoreboard).
“like the ones that I really feel good about, I like Cincinnati plus nine. That's a tremendous”
CLE 27, CIN 19 — Browns beat Bengals 27-19; Cincinnati margin -8 vs line +9 covers (ESPN Week 14 scoreboard).
“Kansas City plus three, and Seahawks minus one.”
NE 16, KC 23 — Chiefs beat Patriots 23-16; Kansas City margin +7 vs line +3 covers (ESPN Week 14 scoreboard).
“They're, what, nine-and-a-half-point favorites on the road against the Dolphins? Look, I was way off the Dolphins this past week. I thought the tide had sort of crested, for lack of a better term. But you give me a fading struggling Eagles team and a quarterback who can really seem to find the magic that got him to convert every third down a couple years ago versus a Ryan Fitzpatrick team that does not give up Like, they were down 28-0, and midway through the fourth, I was worried about my cover. Yeah, no, they are tenacious now, aren't they? I'm going to take the Dolphins in this game. Yeah, it seems like the right move. I mean, last week, I think you said the bloom was off the rose on betting on the Dolphins and you pick the right time to jump off them. At some point, you know, we kept lowering their power rankings until we created value on them because they were so low. And then once we did see that there was a little fight in this team and they didn't, you know, totally give up on the whole year, we realized they can be competitive, especially when they're getting double digits. they're not quite getting double digits here but it's close nine and a half is the is the spread I think we're probably close to going to nine though I think everyone else is”
MIA 37, PHI 31 — Dolphins beat Eagles 37-31; Miami margin +6 vs line +9.5 covers (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“The New York Jets visiting the Cincinnati Bengals. Andy Dalton back. You've got the Jets as a 3.5-point favorite. What are you doing, man? What are you doing? Too much? You're going to get clocked in this. Give me the red rifle. Give me the red rifle in this game. They're playing hard. Listen, they got one chance to win this year. One. They're looking at it. They're bringing their better quarterback back. They've got a defense that has been really stingy. This is their shot. They are not going to miss their shot. Hamilton, right? I got that reference. sample it all right uh so yeah you know we're we're kind of we're kind of off this year on uh on a lot of these on a lot of these teams and i'll be the first to admit you know we've had some pretty bad lines can't get it can't get a good read on the jets uh obviously from the last two weeks i think they won by identical scores against both both the raiders and the uh the the Redskins. So that's the reason they're a little inflated. Nobody's betting the Bengals or have been during their 11 loss stretch. So that's another reason. The ticket count is about five to one Jets to Bengals. However, we've got more money on this game for more than any other Sunday game. I mean, I'm going to throw the three Thanksgiving Day games out because we have a lot of money on all three of them. But we've got more action on this Jets-Bengals than any other game on Sunday, including the Ravens 49ers. So even bad teams can kind of draw action when there's a little bit of intrigue. The Jets, they're drawing a lot of attention because they're not a good team, but when they win, they win big and they come up with some big wins like they did against the Cowboys, against teams that are much better than them. So a lot of intrigue with that. And then like you said, the Bengals 0-11, if they have a shot to win a game, this is it. So a lot of interest in this game. And on both sides, I mean, the action's good on both sides. We're not lopsided in terms of money. We're only lopsided. in terms of ticket count on the Jets. I'm betting on the Bengals in that game. That's it. That's all there is to it.”
CIN 22, NYJ 6 — Bengals beat Jets 22-6; Cincinnati margin +16 vs line +3.5 covers (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“The next game, Minnesota playing Seattle, in Seattle, Monday night football. ESPN's got itself a game right there. I would take Minnesota in this game. Minnesota's a three-point underdog. Seattle plays them close, generally. They do not tend to look good over the course of an entire game. I am a big Minnesota fan in this game. Give me the Minnesota Vikings”
SEA 37, MIN 30 — Seahawks beat Vikings 37-30; Minnesota margin -7 vs line +3 busts (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“I have Miami [46:21] plus nine and a half [46:23] against the Eagles.”
MIA 37, PHI 31 — Dolphins beat Eagles 37-31; Miami margin +6 vs line +9.5 covers (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“Here's one. Minnesota, three-point dog on the road against Seattle. They are playing a team that is just not as good as they are. I like it. I like Minnesota here. Darren? I'll take that game over San Francisco, Baltimore. All right. So right now we're Cleveland, we're Miami, and we're Minnesota. Right?”
SEA 37, MIN 30 — Seahawks beat Vikings 37-30; Minnesota margin -7 vs line +3 busts (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“I am going to go with the Buffalo Bills minus four.”
BUF 20, DEN 3 — Bills beat Broncos 20-3; Buffalo margin +17 vs line -4 covers (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“The Sharp guys seem to think that the Jets are the play here. We opened three, and I really thought that they would lay Oakland on this. So this one surprised me. They came in, took the plus three. I'm not going to two and a half. We went to three even money. So we're letting anyone that wants to bet the Jets at plus three, they're going to have to lay $1.20 on this one. But it did surprise me. Now the public is all over the Raiders. So we're seeing somewhere in the neighborhood that 60% of the tickets coming in is going to be on the Raiders. So I think they finally like betting on the Raiders. And so against the Jets, this is going to be a tough one because the public is going to be on one side and Sharpies are on another. And I think I just want to stay at three and just move money all week. The other day on our show on Sunday, someone called in and they asked you a question, which team do you need for your lungs? And they referenced, you know, need for your lungs is a longtime scoochism on the show. Royce is shaking his head. He enjoys that. He appreciates that as a longtime listener. I feel like I feel a little bit like Kelly Clarkson right now. Like we have a studio audience, Pat. Isn't that nice? Pat's shaking his head. But my point is like, when the public jumps on a team, it's time to jump off them. And like the public has jumped on, We are at peak Raiders right now. You know what I mean? Yeah. So give me the New York J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets.”
NYJ 34, OAK 3 — Jets beat Raiders 34-3; New York margin +31 vs line +3 covers (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“Eagles minus one and a half. Pittsburgh minus seven. Pats minus six and a half. Panthers plus ten.”
NO 34, CAR 31 — Saints beat Panthers 34-31; Carolina margin -3 vs line +10 covers (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“I'd rather they take the Buccaneers in this one than lay the Falcons. Line change! You just did it. Royce, you want to throw in a line change? Line change! Oh, I love it. That was great. Our studio audience is bringing enthusiasm. He's a class act. He's a professional. Yep. Detroit is a three-point favorite on the road against the craptastic Washington Redskins. Good Lord, Scooch. Like, this is... Hold your nose. like what are you going to do here? Yeah, we've gotten a lot of money on Detroit already. I know some places open two and a half. We open three. They laid it right out of the gate We went to three minus 20 Wouldn be surprised to see this go up to three and a half regardless of who at quarterback for Detroit Washington I can make up my mind which team is at the bottom of the league right now between the Bengals and Washington. And really, last week, like you pointed out, my best bet, if they couldn't win at home against the Jets, laying only a point, this team is really bad. and they're dysfunctional. So even though they're at home here, I don't have a whole lot of confidence here. 80% of the money's on Detroit so far, and I would expect that to continue throughout the week. So I'm pretty close to going to three and a half. I'm just not there yet. I'm going to have to bet the Redskins in this. Hold your nose. Yeah, 80% of the money's coming in, a home dog. Like, I got to do it. That's what I got to do. All right, can we, listen, the uh sequel to the pantheon cup is happening in tennessee this weekend where the jacksonville”
WSH 19, DET 16 — Washington beat Detroit 19-16 outright; Washington margin +3 vs line +3 wins (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“Here's what we got so far. We are committed. Eagles minus one and a half.”
PHI 9, SEA 17 — Seahawks beat Eagles 17-9; Philadelphia margin -8 vs line -1.5 busts (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“Not bad. I'm going to go with another four-point favorite. I am going to go with the Falcons over the Buccaneers.”
ATL 22, TB 35 — Buccaneers beat Falcons 35-22; Atlanta margin -13 vs line -4 busts (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“I like a good sharp line this week. Just because people saw it on Thursday, how awful Pittsburgh looked. I like Pittsburgh at Cincy. It's Pittsburgh, they're 5-5 playing an 0-10 team. And this is their, they got to win big here. They got to make a playoff push. This team still believes in themselves. And Cincy, that was, I don't know how they didn't beat Oakland. Oakland played absolutely horrible, and they still lost by seven. So I just think the Bengals are a team that's just quit, and they covered last week, so I think it's a good week to go against Cincy. You want us to put a road favorite of a touchdown or more getting 80% of the money into the Super Contest? I mean, I get what you're saying. I don't play percentages like that. I mean, I know you mean, so we can stay away, I guess, from Pittsburgh. But 80% of the money, that's a lot of sharp money. That's just not Joe Public money. Do you know what, though? You know what? You know what? I'm willing to go with it. Like, sometimes you've got to go against your instincts. I've lost this thing every year. I'm winning this year. So I feel like I'd put it in. Yeah, we cracked 30. I'm pretty excited where we're heading right now. We already cracked 30 before week 12. So we've got 30 wins right now going in. So we're doing good. 30 wins. I don't know of any idea what place we're in. and I've assiduously avoided it. You're not looking. I'm not looking. At the end of the year, we're either in the money or we're not. It's not going to impact my choices. Let's take Pittsburgh. All right. Let's take Pittsburgh. So we got the Eagles minus one and a half, the Panthers plus nine and a half for 10, Pittsburgh minus seven.”
CIN 10, PIT 16 — Steelers beat Bengals 16-10; Pittsburgh margin +6 vs line -7 busts (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“but do you guys like the Patriots? I do. I do like the Patriots. I'm actually hoping the number goes lower. I'm hoping when the lines are posted, it's at six, not six and a half. Right. I would love it at six. I do in my system. I got this at seven, so we're not getting crazy value. But this is just such a, I mean, no one likes the Patriots. They look horrible. The Eagles did everything they could to lose and not cover that game. So I do like the Patriots bouncing back here. Darren, what do you think of that? I like the Patriots. All right. Eagles minus one and a half. Pittsburgh minus seven. Pats minus six and a half.”
NE 13, DAL 9 — Patriots beat Cowboys 13-9; New England margin +4 vs line -6.5 busts (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“And you guys said you like San Fran, 49ers? I do. I don't. You don't. Yeah. It makes me a little weird because it is prime time. And everything we've seen from Jimmy G, he hasn't looked good in primetime. Like, that Seahawks game, he was terrible on the Monday night. Okay, I do like that. I do like the 49ers there. How about Jacksonville plus three in Tennessee? That a waste of a game You only have to laugh I know I know I mean do you want to do the Thursday night Do you guys want to take the Colts tonight on Thursday Let's take the Niners. Okay. Oh! I'll take the Niners. Give me one pick. So, we got a lot of chalk here. We got the Eagles minus... That's what makes me a little worried here. Yeah, the Eagles minus 4.5, Pats minus 6.5, Pittsburgh minus 7, the Niners minus 9.5, and the Panthers, or minus 3.5 and the Panthers”
SF 37, GB 8 — 49ers beat Packers 37-8; San Francisco margin +29 vs line -3.5 covers (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“I like Miami ten and a half.”
CLE 41, MIA 24 — Browns beat Dolphins 41-24; Miami margin -17 vs line +10.5 busts (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“I like Oakland, minus three against the Jets.”
NYJ 34, OAK 3 — Jets beat Raiders 34-3; Oakland margin -31 vs line -3 busts (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“I'll take Baltimore minus three against the Rams.”
LAR 6, BAL 45 — Ravens beat Rams 45-6; Baltimore margin +39 vs line -3 covers (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“I'll take the 49ers minus three against the Packers.”
SF 37, GB 8 — 49ers beat Packers 37-8; San Francisco margin +29 vs line -3 covers (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“Denver Broncos on the road, 10.5-point underdogs against the living large new man with the Minnesota Vikings, Kirk Cousins playing lights out, going on the road at Dallas, comeback win looking fantastic playing like we all know he can loving every minute of it i'm not taking the vikings here that's a big number it's a it's a huge number and uh we have been kind of sneakily high on on denver most of the year some games to our detriment uh some games not but uh you know we have them rated a little higher than uh kind of the public perception of them has been and uh but this game is about as high as we can make a line i i i think there's a lot of value on denver uh but uh boy we seen us how many double digit favorites have we seen this year I I you should look into that and see if it a if it a record It has been amazing. Right. But more importantly, and I will check that. That's a great question. I'm going to ask somebody that. Um, I'd also like to know double, like underdogs this year are winning. It's something like, there's something like 84. Like if I'm 82 and whatever I am, underdogs have won four more games than that. Yeah. Underdogs are winning at a 60% clip this year. 60%. And it's reflective of our NFL season to date right now. The sportsbooks are doing really well. Knock on wood, we haven't had one of those real devastating weekends that typically we do by this time of year. The end of October, the beginning of November, especially when you have like six teams of them every week. Anytime you have a real short schedule. All those high-profile teams like the Patriots and the Saints, it gets more concentrated, so you have less margin for error as a sportsbook. So you have two or three really big games that determine your weekend. You either win big or you lose big. And so far, we've won big. And so, I mean, we're having a pretty good year, and usually when a lot of underdogs win, that's the case. Denver will be the side there.”
MIN 27, DEN 23 — Vikings beat Broncos 27-23; Denver lost by only 4, covering +10.5 (ESPN box score).
“The Buffalo Bills are visiting the Dolphins. They're five-and-a-half-point favorites. Give me the Dolphins!”
MIA 20, BUF 37 — Bills beat Dolphins 37-20; Miami lost by 17, missing +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“We got the corner TV game coming up. Bengals at Raiders. Raiders all of a sudden, best team in the NFL, they're 10.5-point favorites. Come on. Come on. How do you not take the Raiders in this game? I don't know what else to do. You mean take the Raiders or the Bengals? Well, I've got to take the Raiders because the Bengals are barely playing anybody.”
OAK 17, CIN 10 — Raiders beat Bengals 17-10; Oakland won by only 7, missing the -10.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“He really is Yeah You know what I going with the bears i going with the bears wow wow kansas city visiting the la chargers they three and a half point favorites feels like a steal to me give it to me chargers yep no chiefs wow really well you're getting value because we opened so we thought the same thing on this one so we opened what we thought was going to be a pretty high number. We opened four and a half and right out of the gate, they took the four and a half. We went to four. They took the four. We went to three and a half. So at three and a half, we're pretty heavy on the Chiefs and public is going to be on the Chiefs too. It looks like the tickets are about three to one right now. Chiefs to Chargers, but we've already taken a ton of money on the Chargers from the Sharp guys. So they think the Chargers is the play here. this game being played in Mexico City. It's not a home dog, but they certainly feel like there's some value on the points with the Chargers. No, the Chiefs are going to win this game. That's a no-brainer.”
LAC 17, KC 24 — Chiefs beat Chargers 24-17 in Mexico City; Kansas City won by 7, covering -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“i'll i'll take the redskins minus [36:29] minus one against the jets actually i'm at one and a half now so i gotta lay the bad number”
WSH 17, NYJ 34 — Jets beat Washington 34-17; Washington lost outright by 17, missing the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I think we're getting five, five and a half with Miami.”
MIA 20, BUF 37 — Bills beat Dolphins 37-20; Miami lost by 17, missing +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“Like, do we want to back the Chiefs on Monday night in Mexico? I was just looking at that game and I absolutely do. I think they're going to kill them. We do, right? Yeah. Okay, because that's a nice spot where we can take the Chiefs here. They're going to, if they hopefully cover for us, they get a bye weekend. And coming back, you know, Andy reached that off a bye. So we should get a nice little run here at the Chiefs. I'm good with putting the Chiefs in minus four.”
LAC 17, KC 24 — Chiefs beat Chargers 24-17 in Mexico City; Kansas City won by 7, covering -4 (ESPN box score).
“Miami Dolphins are visiting the Indianapolis Colts. They're 10-point underdogs. We don't know if Jacoby Brissett is playing, but Brian Hoyer looks pretty good. Is there any throw he can make that Brissett can't make look better? it's like you're mad at me no you're throwing shots at me you know well you said something silly but you raise an interesting point that i was going to ask in a more eloquent thoughtful way that adds substance to how people are thinking about these games versus just taking pot shots which is what is the point spread differential between jacoby brissette and brian hoyer three and a half to four. This line will be easily 14 if he's 100%. So the thing of it is, again, I always qualify a player like that that's starting versus him being 100% healthy. So he would have to start and be 100% healthy for him to be 14. So I'm probably looking at more like 13 because he won't be 100%. And that point makes a difference. It does. And the first couple of bets out of the gate were on the Dolphins. So the Dolphins have covered, what, three out of the last three or four? I mean, they've covered like the last three or four games. We've talked about last week, that's why you bet them on the money line in Scooch Roulette, because it was just a great spot for them. And we felt like, you know, as bad as they started the year with all the turmoil and unloading players, they played the last few games with a lot of heart. and you could see that the morale was actually there as opposed to kind of the Jets who just feel like they're in a downward spiral. But yeah, the Dolphins, once again, I mean, if you're talking about the value, getting double digits even against a team like the Colts, yeah, that's the play. I agree. I agree 100%. That's a no-brainer to me. Take the Fins.”
IND 12, MIA 16 — Dolphins beat Colts 16-12 outright, easily covering +10 (ESPN box score).
“and everyone else will sort of do your work for you yep big big Monday night game The undefeated 49ers the 7 Seattle Seahawks Massive game I think the Seahawks are massively overrated They really just seem like the Russell Wilsons at this point. And they are 6.5 point road dogs. And I would go with the Niners all day. If I'm getting half a point underneath the touchdown, man, oh man, a shove it.”
SF 24, SEA 27 — Seahawks beat 49ers 27-24 in OT; San Francisco lost by 3, missing the -6.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Lions plus two and a half.”
CHI 20, DET 13 — Bears beat Lions 20-13; Detroit lost outright, missing +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“Well, this week I actually do like some, I do like more chalk favorites. I really like, it's like a weird thing because everyone just saw Green Bay get dominated, but I like Green Bay coming home here playing Carolina after Carolina had a big win. Because I know people, everyone's talking at McCaffrey's MVP and he's the real deal. But I don't see this kid Allen dueling with Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay and Lambeau. I like Green Bay. I agree with that. What do you have that power rate, Simon? We're not getting crazy value, unfortunately. I mean, I liked it that it was 4.5. Now I'm seeing most books with that 5. I get a minus 7 Green Bay. So it's kind of like last week with the Eagles, I had the Eagles minus 7. It's the same exact kind of spot where it's a home team getting – they're just shorting this a little bit. because people are thinking Carolina's a pretty good team. I just think they're a different team on the road. Jesus. You got it at minus seven? Did you bet it in August? No, no. I'm saying that's what I got it in my system. Oh. I took the minus four and a half already, and now I'm cleaning up the minus five.”
GB 24, CAR 16 — Packers beat Panthers 24-16; Green Bay won by 8, covering -5 (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Dolphins plus 135.”
MIA 26, NYJ 18 — Dolphins beat Jets 26-18 outright, covering the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“Dallas is on the road against the New York Giants. They're seven-point favorites. Monday Night Football. Give me the Giants.”
NYG 18, DAL 37 — Cowboys beat Giants 37-18; New York lost by 19, missing +7 (ESPN box score).
“That's the number seven horse, Alenac. [44:29] That's going to be a win bet.”
Bricks and Mortar won the 2019 Breeders' Cup Turf at Santa Anita; the selected horse did not win, so the win bet loses (Wikipedia race result).
“Fourth race, four horse, Come Dancing.”
Covfefe won the 2019 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint at Santa Anita; Come Dancing did not win, so the win bet loses (Wikipedia race result).
“I sure they still friends but business you have to make these decisions in these races And Mike Smith picks up the number five horse Yoshida who I actually think could beat the number eight horse McKenzie But Bob Baffert usually has big success on these type of days and this is his home track at Santa Anita But I'm going to try to beat McKenzie. That's the Baffert horse in race 12. That's the Breeders' Cup Classic. What wasn't Mike Smith doing? What did Bob Baffert not like? he was uh i think he wanted him to be in front and and take the source to the lead and win but i'm kind of on the side of look that was a two hundred thousand dollar purse this is a six million dollar purse as long as i get the lead in the race that matters and as long as i win the race that matters shouldn't everything be okay but apparently not because after finishing second in that race as the one to five favorite bob baffert decided to make a change and mike smith no longer has the mount on McKenzie. It's so interesting in horse racing that the trainers will change the jockeys at a moment's notice. And like, either it speaks to how much impact the jockeys can have in two minutes, or how little the jockeys matter. Because, you know, in most areas, in sports, like in most events, preparation is the key. You need to be practicing, you need to be playing, you need to be getting comfortable with your teammates. in horse racing, it feels like it's the opposite. Well, you can't fire the trainer or else you fire yourself. So the next scapegoat is going to be to fire the jockey. I myself would not take Mike Smith off of this horse. He knows him very, very well. He also had a questionable ride in three starts back in the Metropolitan Mile where he got just boxed in behind horses and wasn't able to find a seam. So maybe between that and his last start, you know, it was just time to make a change. But we'll see if it was the right move or not. All right, Dave, give me the three bets I should make this weekend. You mentioned one. Give me them all together. So the first bet that I had already mentioned is going to come in race number 11 on Saturday. That's the number seven horse, Alenac. That's going to be a win bet. This is the horse that's going to be 20, maybe 30 to 1 at post time. Okay, let's go earlier in the day. Race number four. It's the first Breeders' Cup race. There are three races that are stakes that are not considered the Breeders' Cup races because they're not grade ones. But the first actual Breeders' Cup race on Saturday is a Breeders' Cup Fillion Mare Sprint. There a horse that going to be overbet from the inside post named Covfefe that is going further than I think she wants to go She going to get dueled by another horse named Selcourt It going to set it up for a horse named Come Dancing who going to sit off the pace and run right past them with about an eighth of a mile to go. That's the number four horse. Fourth race, four horse, Come Dancing. Eleventh race, the seven horse, Alenak. And then the 12th race with the British Cup Classic. Let's get Yoshida home, Mike Smith.”
Vino Rosso won the 2019 Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita; Yoshida did not win, so the win bet loses (Wikipedia race result).
“I want to throw one out there that I love. Love. Simon, give me the Panthers plus five and a half against the Niners.”
SF 51, CAR 13 — 49ers beat Panthers 51-13; Carolina lost by 38, well outside +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“I love Miami, plus 14.5 against Pittsburgh.”
PIT 27, MIA 14 — Steelers beat Dolphins 27-14; Miami lost by 13, covering +14.5 (ESPN box score).
“And I have faith in Jacoby Brissett, minus six against Denver, who I have no faith in.”
IND 15, DEN 13 — Colts beat Broncos 15-13; Indianapolis won by only 2, short of the -6 spread (ESPN box score).
“All right, last one from Darren. Colts, minus six. I love it. I mean, it's a good spot. Like the Colts are a really good team, and they're playing a really bad team, and you're getting less than a touchdown. So, I mean, I'll be on the Colts, but that might be a trap spot.”
IND 15, DEN 13 — Colts beat Broncos 15-13; Indianapolis won by only 2, short of the -6 spread (ESPN box score).
“We got the Colts minus 6. We got Miami plus 14.5. We got, um, I'm sorry, we got Green Bay minus 4.5. And we got the Panthers plus 5.5. And maybe Seattle to replace the Jags, depending on what they get posted as. I like it”
KC 24, GB 31 — Packers beat Chiefs 31-24; Green Bay won by 7, covering -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“All right. Then we need we need one more team. Simon, we're going to go. Simon says, Simon says, take. Simon says, take. So my my favorite alternative for the ones we have right now. Yeah. I would hate to do it to Darren, but I do like the Jags at home. against the Jets. I don't like that game. You know what? We have to do it. Simon Says. We're playing Simon Says. Well, we can just put that as an alternative. We're taking that if Seattle doesn't work. Right. Yeah, because that Seattle numbers end up being a good one Like Darren right We shouldn really be playing the percentages yet So I definitely cool with taking a Seattle one Alright so we got the Jags minus 5”
JAX 29, NYJ 15 — Jaguars beat Jets 29-15; Jacksonville won by 14, covering -5 (ESPN box score).
“I kind of still like Denver at three.”
DEN 6, KC 30 — Chiefs beat Broncos 30-6 (Broncos margin -24), busting the +3 spread (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“Baltimore-Seattle is a no-brainer to me. Take the Ravens. Go. Yeah, you're not kidding. This is our biggest game in terms of straight bets We got more money on the Ravens from the Sharp guys than let me see any other game I'm just double-checking. Yeah, the Raiders, it's pretty close. Between the Raiders and the Ravens, those are the two most heavily bet games on the board for us from the Wise guys in terms of just one way. Now, we opened four on the game, so a lot of it was just a much higher number. Went to three and a half. They took the three and a half, and we're at three right now.”
SEA 16, BAL 30 — Ravens beat Seahawks 30-16 outright (margin +14), covering +3 (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“I love Oakland. I think it's down to plus four and a half. I love Chicago Bears. I think they're minus three and a half at home. And for the big chalk one, I do really like, I mean, I guess it's not chalk at all at this point because the line keeps moving, but Denver. Everyone's going to be taking Denver tonight. Even though I know the public's all over the Chiefs, but this is just, this is reeks of a trap game with the Broncos and the Chiefs. I agree. So you want to take Denver right now? Yeah. Do you guys like them? I do. Do you like that bear in Oakland or Chicago? No, I like Oakland, too. I don't love the Bears. When Chad doesn't like the Bears, automatically take the Bears. All right, Darren, here's what we should do. Let's go Eagles, Raiders, Bears, Denver. and Ravens. One more time. Eagles? Yep. Plus three. Raiders plus four and a half. Bears minus three and a half. Denver plus three, and the Ravens. Okay, I feel good about that.”
GB 42, OAK 24 — Packers beat Raiders 42-24 (Raiders margin -18), busting the +4.5 spread (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“I love Chicago Bears. I think they're minus three and a half at home.”
CHI 25, NO 36 — Saints beat Bears 36-25 (Bears margin -11), busting the -3.5 spread (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“The last game that I like, Kansas City as a five-and-a-half point favorite against Houston.”
KC 24, HOU 31 — Texans beat Chiefs 31-24 (Chiefs margin -7), busting the -5.5 spread (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Minnesota is going to be underrated by the public. I think you made a line that is probably a little bit shaded towards Philly. And I would give Minnesota like another point at least. And so I'm taking it at minus three.”
MIN 38, PHI 20 — Vikings beat Eagles 38-20 (margin +18), covering -3 (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Give me the Lions at plus four and a half.”
GB 23, DET 22 — Packers beat Lions 23-22 (Lions margin -1), covering +4.5 (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Scooch, you won last week. You had Houston. I won last week. I had Carolina. I am a gracious host. I am going to let you go first because there are so many freaking games that I love. There are. Me too. Because I like Cleveland, I like Jacksonville, and I even like the Bengals. But if there's one I'd probably like more than the other, it's probably Jacksonville. Yeah, I do love that game. I love that game. You're taking Jacksonville. Minus one and a half over the New Orleans Saints.”
JAX 6, NO 13 — Saints beat Jaguars 13-6 (Jaguars margin -7), busting the -1.5 spread (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“I like – I'll take Cincinnati plus 11.5.”
BAL 23, CIN 17 — Ravens beat Bengals 23-17 (Bengals margin -6), covering +11.5 (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Okay, I'm going to go with Houston, Texas again. They burned me last week but I going with them against the Falcons the minus four and a half”
HOU 53, ATL 32 — Texans beat Falcons 53-32 (margin +21), covering -4.5 (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“They burned me last week but I going with them against the Falcons the minus four and a half I got to tell you I was going to choose them too Instead I going with Carolina minus three and a half Yeah, that's not bad either. Yeah, that's what I'm going to do. All right. You're on the Houston Texans. I'm on the Carolina Panthers.”
CAR 34, JAX 27 — Panthers beat Jaguars 34-27 (margin +7), covering -3.5 (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“Texans minus five, Panthers minus three and a half, Colts plus ten and a half, Cowboys minus three and a half, Denver plus six.”
DAL 24, GB 34 — Packers beat Cowboys 34-24 (Cowboys margin -10), busting the -3.5 spread (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“So far, Darren and I agree on the Patriots minus 7,”
BUF 10, NE 16 — Patriots beat Bills 16-10 (margin +6), short of the -7 spread (ESPN Week 4 scoreboard).
“Here's what I would say. Here's what I think we should do. Let's take the Texans, okay? Let's take New England, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, the Saints, and the Texans, okay? But we know it's Tuesday afternoon. The Super Contest lines come out Wednesday night. If these lines have moved, if any of these lines have moved considerably off the number we have right now, Texans minus 5 Saints plus 2.5 KC minus 6 or 6.5 Tampa Bay plus 9.5”
LAR 40, TB 55 — Buccaneers beat Rams 55-40 (margin +15), covering +9.5 (ESPN Week 4 scoreboard).
“I do like the Chiefs as six point favorites over the Lions.”
DET 30, KC 34 — Chiefs beat Lions 34-30 (margin +4), short of the -6 spread (ESPN Week 4 scoreboard).
“Let's take the Texans, okay?”
HOU 10, CAR 16 — Panthers beat Texans 16-10 (Texans margin -6), busting the -5 spread (ESPN Week 4 scoreboard).
“And the sharpest thing in the world is to take the Saints here. I mean, how do you not take that number? That is literally Vegas is giving you money if you're taking the Saints because they're pretty much saying to you, everyone in the world, come bet Sunday night on the Cowboys. Dude, we're taking it. That's a really smart line as a Saints. We're taking the Saints. Let me just throw it. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. Look at me. Look at me. We're agreeing. We're taking the Saints. Right now I have four games on the board that we're taking. New England minus seven. Tampa Bay plus whatever. You've got to stay at minus seven, though. I don't know about the minus seven and a half. All right. New England minus seven. Tampa Bay plus whatever. KC minus six and a half. We don't want the seven. Saints plus two and a half.”
NO 12, DAL 10 — Saints beat Cowboys 12-10, covering +2.5 as an outright winner (ESPN Week 4 scoreboard).
“a real chalky one I do like this week is just the Chiefs yes that's my first pick alright that's a real chalky one that's like they not that I mean Baltimore got lucky with that late cover you definitely saw them take the foot off the gas when they were up 12 and I don't see Detroit being able to keep up with the Chiefs. But I don't like that it's at seven. If it stays at six and a half for the contest, I'd like it.”
DET 30, KC 34 — Chiefs beat Lions 34-30 (margin +4), short of the -6.5 spread (ESPN Week 4 scoreboard).
“I think the right play here, the Jags on the money line. yeah you're able to get uh anywhere from plus 105 maybe plus 110 if you shop uh even money at the worst but uh uh yeah the one and a half points isn going to be that much value no i like that i going to make that bet”
Jaguars 20, Titans 7 — The Jaguars beat the Titans 20-7, so Jacksonville's moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“I am going to go with Indianapolis Colts minus two over the Atlanta Falcons.”
Colts 27, Falcons 24 — The Colts beat the Falcons 27-24, a 3-point margin that covers Indianapolis -2 (ESPN box score).
“and then I also like Detroit plus seven against Philadelphia”
Lions 27, Eagles 24 — The Lions beat the Eagles 27-24, covering Detroit +7 (ESPN box score).
“My five picks that I like are Colts minus two, Cardinals plus two and a half, Lions plus seven, Rams minus three, and then Texans plus three on the road at the Chargers.”
Rams 20, Browns 13 — The Rams beat the Browns 20-13, a 7-point margin that covers Los Angeles -3 (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to take seven points with the Lions.”
Lions 27, Eagles 24 — The Lions beat the Eagles 27-24, covering Detroit +7 (ESPN box score).
“Rams minus 3 is my number 1 pick”
Rams 20, Browns 13 — The Rams beat the Browns 20-13, a 7-point margin that covers Los Angeles -3 (ESPN box score).
“But Arizona, for sure, I'm going to bet the money line on that game.”
Panthers 38, Cardinals 20 — The Panthers beat the Cardinals 38-20, so Arizona's moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“But I do like the Chargers at 3 for just playing it safe.”
Texans 27, Chargers 20 — The Texans beat the Chargers 27-20; Los Angeles lost outright, busting the -3 line (ESPN box score).
“I like the Giants plus two and a half against the Buffalo Bills, and I like them better than any pick you have.”
Bills 28, Giants 14 — The Bills beat the Giants 28-14, well outside the New York +2.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I've bet the Colts a plus three.”
Colts 19, Titans 17 — The Colts beat the Titans 19-17, covering Indianapolis +3 (ESPN box score).
“i bet uh the panthers bucks under 49 and a half on thursday night”
Buccaneers 20, Panthers 14 — The Buccaneers beat the Panthers 20-14, a combined 34 points that stays under 49.5 (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Cardinals at plus 13 and a half.”
Ravens 23, Cardinals 17 — The Ravens beat the Cardinals 23-17, a 6-point margin that covers Arizona +13.5 (ESPN box score).
“Full disclosure, I bet the Bengals minus one.”
49ers 41, Bengals 17 — The 49ers beat the Bengals 41-17, well outside the Cincinnati -1 line (ESPN box score).
“I like the Pittsburgh Steelers as four-point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks.”
Seahawks 28, Steelers 26 — The Seahawks beat the Steelers 28-26, so Pittsburgh -4 busts (ESPN box score).
“but I think Cincinnati is the right play, minus one at home.”
49ers 41, Bengals 17 — The 49ers beat the Bengals 41-17, well outside the Cincinnati -1 line (ESPN box score).
“I like the Jets as two-and-a-half-point dogs at home.”
Browns 23, Jets 3 — The Browns beat the Jets 23-3, well outside the New York +2.5 line (ESPN box score).
“that I'd recommend at 18 and a half, we enter the Super Contest with the Patriots to cover against the Dolphins.”
Patriots 43, Dolphins 0 — The Patriots beat the Dolphins 43-0, covering New England -18.5 (ESPN box score).
“I think I got Washington at six and a half”
Cowboys 31, Washington 21 — The Cowboys beat Washington 31-21, well outside the Washington +6.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Packers a plus three”
Packers 10, Bears 3 — The Packers beat the Bears 10-3, covering Green Bay +3 (ESPN box score).
“One of the games I bet on is Jacksonville I got it at plus 4 against Kansas City”
Chiefs 40, Jaguars 26 — The Chiefs beat the Jaguars 40-26, well outside the Jacksonville +4 line (ESPN box score).
“So Carolina is another team, plus three, that I am on.”
Rams 30, Panthers 27 — The Rams beat the Panthers 30-27, a 3-point margin that pushes exactly against Carolina +3 (ESPN box score).
“I got the Colts at plus 7”
Chargers 30, Colts 24 — The Chargers beat the Colts 30-24 in overtime, a 6-point margin that covers Indianapolis +7 (ESPN box score).
“It's the Texans plus seven against the Saints.”
Saints 30, Texans 28 — The Saints beat the Texans 30-28, a 2-point margin that covers Houston +7 (ESPN box score).
“Talk me off of Minnesota as a four-point favorite. Honestly, I do like Minnesota in this spot, being that it's a 1 o'clock game, and Kirk Cousins is good when it's 1 o'clock and no one cares about the game. But it's hard to back up. I mean, what have you seen from Kirk? I mean, even last year, the way he finished, and this year, how he's looking in preseason. I couldn't back him, especially Matt Ryan. He's got a new offensive line. I wouldn't go against Atlanta there. All right, so Simon, you... I do like Minnesota there. I'm saying that's a good play by you. I like that spot. All right. Well, then we're taking it. We're taking it.”
Vikings 28, Falcons 12 — The Vikings beat the Falcons 28-12, covering Minnesota -4 (ESPN box score).
“We've got Tampa at pick, and we've got the Colts plus 6.5.”
49ers 31, Buccaneers 7 — The 49ers beat the Buccaneers 31-7; Tampa Bay lost outright, busting the pick'em (ESPN box score).
“[56:03] Darren is desperate for a favorite, and he would like, I think he likes the idea of taking [56:08] the Cowboys. [56:09] He likes taking the Cowboys over the Giants. [56:11] I would do that. [56:13] I like that one, too. [56:14] Why do you like it? [56:15] I just, I get like what the Giants are doing and they're building for the future, [56:21] but I just, with the weapons they have in offense, no Odell. [56:25] I mean, I know people really like Evan Ingram and everything like that [56:27] and Saquon, obviously. [56:29] No Golden. [56:30] No Golden. [56:31] I mean, the Cowboys defense, people forget last year, [56:34] I mean, they're arguably top five. [56:35] They just have Vanderhaush and Jalen Smith at linebacker. [56:39] They're just incredible defensively. [56:41] I think that it's a bad matchup for the Giants style. [56:43] All right, well, listen. [56:46] I'm checking the system now, so they think this should be Cowboys minus 10. [56:51] So you're getting three free points. [56:52] Wow. [56:53] All right, listen, you've been judgy this whole time and quite frankly a little bit insulting. [57:00] I'm sorry. [57:01] So give us the pick you would put us on that's going to get us into that 25%. [57:07] So you want one more besides the Cowboys one? [57:13] Well no see see Darren also wanted the Cowboys I not giving you that credit I not giving you credit for that We get Tampa Bay we get the Colts we get Minnesota minus four Cowboys minus seven You can either you can either say you must take the Jags plus three and a half or give us a different game I mean the Redskins as a No way”
Cowboys 35, Giants 17 — The Cowboys beat the Giants 35-17, covering Dallas -7 (ESPN box score).
“The Colts Chargers is the most intriguing pick of week one, I feel. Yeah, definitely Joes versus pros on that one. Yes, exactly. So let's talk about that for a second, because that I think is a good one for us to include in our list. It's definitely one of those games where it depends on what kind of system you're using, but my system literally only gave Andrew Luck a point and spread difference last year. That's how he was good, but he wasn't so incredibly above average like everyone thought he was. There was no worry about the pieces around him. So the fact that this game, I think it It's 4.5. It reopened at 7.5. All the sharps bought it down to 7. And they hit it again this week, and now it's down to 6.5. I still think it's too high. This should be like Colts minus, I mean, plus 3.5. I think that you're getting, I don't know, three free points. I definitely like the Colts in this one. I do too. All right. So for me, I feel like we've got two bets in right now. We've got Tampa at pick, and we've got the Colts plus 6.5.”
Chargers 30, Colts 24 — The Chargers beat the Colts 30-24 in overtime, a 6-point margin that covers Indianapolis +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“What about the Jags plus three and a half? This is another Joe's vs. Pro's game, obviously. Why wouldn't you want to bet on Kansas City? Go against what people view as one of the worst teams in football in the Jaguars. So this is definitely one of those games where all of us are going to be all over that Jags number. What number do you like the Jags until? I don't like it. Honestly, I see the Jags running out right. If it went down to two and a half, I'd still take it because you're getting some value there. But three and a half, they're just keeping that hook up. So I still like that number.”
Chiefs 40, Jaguars 26 — The Chiefs beat the Jaguars 40-26, well outside the Jacksonville +3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go with the Minnesota Vikings, minus the four.”
Vikings 28, Falcons 12 — The Vikings beat the Falcons 28-12, covering Minnesota -4 (ESPN box score).
“Well, I got Georgia winning the national championship. So where do I fall on that?”
Georgia lost the 2019 SEC Championship Game to LSU 37-10 and did not make the four-team CFP field (LSU, Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State); LSU then beat Clemson 42-25 to win the national title, so Georgia to win the championship loses.
“Well, speaking of which, so who are the five games? Which are the five games right now when you're looking at this from a point spread perspective where you're like, I know as much about college football as anybody. This one doesn't make sense to me. Oh, that's a good question. So are we just talking week one or are we talking overall this year? Just week one. Week one. Okay, so I know this is unpopular, but I think Memphis covers that six-point spread against Ole Miss. I think Memphis is my pick this year to go to the New Year's Six as a group of five team. And I think that given how inexperienced Ole Miss is, I mean, it's the least experienced team in terms of percentage of returning production of any team in the country on the offensive side. and I think that Memphis is able to score a whole lot of points against an Ole Miss defense that's been really bad the last couple years, and I think that's six points to me. I'll take Memphis at home to cover that, even though they are favored,”
Memphis 15, Ole Miss 10 — Memphis beat Ole Miss 15-10, a 5-point margin that falls short of Memphis -6 (ESPN box score).
“The biggest number this weekend amongst the top 25 It looks like it's Penn State as a 39.5 point favorite hosting Idaho. Next up, I think, is Clemson. I'm looking at the Action Network app right now. Is a 37 point favorite over Georgia Tech. That has a brand new coach and is trying to figure out how to no longer be an option forward offense. If you had to bet one of those games, Penn State 39.5 points over Idaho. Clemson 37 points over Georgia Tech which one do you take? you have to bet I'm sorry, you have to bet on the favorite oh you have to bet on the favorite I'm not betting on Penn State right now to cover I'm not, that's way too Way too high of a spread. I'd much rather take a team like Clemson. That's a little bit more so. Penn State is just such a mystery offensively. I feel like people – I wouldn't have Penn State in my top 25 to start the season. I think they're a complete mystery offensively. I think that what they return at the quarterback position with Sean Clifford, they feel really good about that. But you return your most – you lose your most prolific passer in program history. I think Trace McSorley was so valuable. I mean, he's been the quarterback for every meaningful game that they've played in the last five years. And I just think that the loss that he'll have on that program will be significant. And I would not trust Penn State to cover a 39-and-a-half point spread, even though it is Idaho. And even though they do have talent on the defense, of course, and I like some of their skill players. But, yeah, that just seems a bit lofty to me. Yeah, I would still take Clemson to cover. I think that Clemson should be able to impose their will, really, at the line of scrimmage all year. I don't know who in the world is going to test them. And even though that they have, you know, all those holes on the defensive line or, you know, losing three guys like that who we didn't expect to, you know, to be there even last year, I think that that's something that'll, you know, come into play later in the season. But for now, yeah, give me Clemson, give me Trevor Lawrence”
Clemson 52, Georgia Tech 14 — Clemson beat Georgia Tech 52-14, a 38-point margin that covers Clemson -37 (ESPN box score).
“I think that Michigan finally gets it done and gets a Big Ten championship and obviously a victory against Ohio State and gets to the playoff this year.”
The 2019-season CFP field was LSU, Clemson, Oklahoma, and Ohio State; Michigan (9-4) was not selected, so the bet on Michigan making the playoff loses.
“I'm investing my money, which I already have in a couple different places. I bought the Indianapolis Colts at 18 to 1. Where do you have the Colts right now? To win the whole thing? Yeah. We have them at 12 to 1.”
The Colts finished 7-9 and missed the playoffs in 2019; the Chiefs beat the 49ers 31-20 to win Super Bowl LIV, so the Colts-to-win-Super-Bowl bet loses.
“The other team that I was high on to win their conference, the Dallas Cowboys at 10-1.”
The Cowboys finished 8-8 and missed the 2019 playoffs; the 49ers represented the NFC in Super Bowl LIV, so the Cowboys-to-win-NFC bet loses.
“I feel like the biggest value might be on the Steelers to win the division. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, you're looking at the Bengals and the Ravens, and nobody's expecting anything from them. So I agree with you there. I think that's a pretty good bet. What do you have the Steelers to win the division at right now? They're minus $1.20. The Steelers to win the division are minus $1.20. So what are the Browns, like minus $2.20? They are minus $1.80. $1.80. So the Browns are minus 180. Ravens are probably minus 150. Steelers are minus 120. Well, the Ravens are plus. Oh, the Ravens are plus. Yeah, yeah. Okay. Yeah, give me the Steelers. Give me the Steelers all day in that scenario.”
The Ravens won the AFC North at 14-2 while the Steelers finished 8-8, so the Steelers-to-win-AFC-North bet loses.
“i did wager on the browns over while i was uh at season i think i got it at 115 uh on the nine and a half win total Again I just keep going back to the third easiest projected NFL strength to schedule and that based on biggest projected win total So, you know, obviously there's an argument to me made, you know, there's a lack of consistency year to year in the NFL, and, you know, it's very unpredictable in terms of productivity across the board. But, again, at plus 115, I think there is value there. That is the only value wager tied to the Cleveland Browns organization this year.”
The Browns finished the 2019 regular season 6-10, under the 9.5 win total, so the over-9.5-wins bet loses.
“I did wager on the Bears at plus 180 to win the NFC North.”
The Packers won the NFC North at 13-3 while the Bears finished 8-8, so the Bears-to-win-NFC-North bet loses.
“You're giving me your Kyler Murray take. I know you have another player on the Packers that you've already bet on. Do you want to name that player and tell us why you did it? Is it Aaron Jones? I was thinking Davante Adams. Oh, I did. You're talking about the receiving touchdowns. We do our research at the Favorites podcast, courtesy Matt Mitchell, producer extraordinaire. Bravo to you. I totally forgot I made that wager. Here's the note from Matt Mitchell. Last week, Matt Mitchell is a genius. If you don't follow Matt Mitchell, he's unbelievable. Last week, it appeared Brad bet on Green Bay's Davante Adams at 10-1 to finish the NFL season with the most TV receptions. Does he view this as easy money? Yeah, that's the lowest hanging fruit, I think, on the board. 10-1 is a gift.”
Kenny Golladay led the NFL with 11 receiving touchdowns in 2019; Davante Adams, limited by injury, did not finish among the league's receiving-touchdown leaders, so the bet loses.
“So you mentioned the Colts at 11 or 12 to 1. One of us sitting here at this table who's not revealing his chest here bet the Colts at 20 to 1. Oh. To win the Super Bowl. What do you think of that, Brad? I think that's sexy. I think that's an incredible value you've got at 20 to 1. It's not sexy. It's not. Brad, I have to disagree with you. you've been probably the greatest guest we've ever had on this podcast so far. But I have to disagree with you because it's throwing your money away. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick still live in the AFC. The Colts are not beating them. It's not happening. What do you think of— There's one team that has a potential to beat New England. It's Kansas City, and that's it. All right. I've got a couple things here. I distracted us because I wanted to finish one thing on the Browns. Because the other sort of popular bet is the Browns to win the AFC North, which I'm also against. Brad, what is your take? What are the odds on that, Chad? I can't remember. It's like plus. I think it's like, oh, no, they're the favorites. Yeah, they're the favorites. They're like minus, I want to say, 170, something like that. 160, 170. Oh, good Lord. You think if I'm going to ask the question, I would know the answer. I think storming Area 51 is a better idea. yeah it's like to me and you mentioned the nine and a half even though it's plus money um i still don't like it like i like them under i am just not buying this team i think they're goosed so high in their season win total that there's no way no way i can bet on them that's like you're basically betting with the public at this point it just feels like i've lost any value whatsoever on this team they are they are over inflated at every level to win the division to win the super bowl and i think on their season win total it's a pass for me it's a pass i'm actually i did wager on the browns over while i was uh at season i think i got it at 115 uh on the nine and a half win total Again I just keep going back to the third easiest projected NFL strength to schedule and that based on biggest projected win total So, you know, obviously there's an argument to me made, you know, there's a lack of consistency year to year in the NFL, and, you know, it's very unpredictable in terms of productivity across the board. But, again, at plus 115, I think there is value there. That is the only value wager tied to the Cleveland Browns organization this year. All right, so why do you think my pick with the Colts is sexy and Blackjack does not?”
The Colts finished 7-9 and missed the playoffs in 2019; the Chiefs beat the 49ers 31-20 to win Super Bowl LIV, so the Colts-to-win-Super-Bowl bet loses.
“I bet the Cowboys to win the NFC at 10-1.”
The Cowboys finished 8-8 and missed the 2019 playoffs; the 49ers represented the NFC in Super Bowl LIV, so the Cowboys-to-win-NFC bet loses.
“I've bet on Justin Thomas at 30-1.”
Shane Lowry won the 2019 Open Championship at -15; Justin Thomas tied for 11th at -3 (ESPN leaderboard), so the 30-1 outright bet loses.
“Give me – I want to run through some bets here. explain to me why you like Matt Kuchar to finish in the top five I feel like he's having a renaissance he is having the strangest year of his entire career and that's not all bad I mean he's gone through all these controversies you know first of the caddy payment and he you know basically underpaid his caddy and it went viral and people heard about it and he had to make amends for it and he wound up paying him and you know people People think Matt Kuchar is an awful person because of this story that got out. I've known Matt Kuchar for a long time. He's very far from an awful person. Might not have handled that situation perfectly, but he is not a bad guy whatsoever. Then he had a situation where he didn't give a putt to Sergio Garcia. The match play was like two inches away, and Sergio went and kind of raked it and didn't make it. And then Kuchar, again, not his fault, but didn't really play it the right way. He had a drop situation at the Memorial where he asked for a drop that no other player would ask for. He asked for a ruling, didn't get it, but still on TV for 15 minutes talking about the situation, and he didn't look good. That said, that's all the bad stuff. All the good stuff is he's probably having the best year of his career. He's got a couple wins already this season. He's, I believe, number one on the FedExCup points list right now. So he's playing really, really good golf. He's played really well at the Open the last couple of years. I remember he was second to Jordan Stee two years ago at Birkdale. He came in ninth last year at Carnoustie, so he understands how to play these types of golf courses So I like Matt Kuchar a lot Long answer to say I like him”
Matt Kuchar tied for 41st at +2 in the 2019 Open Championship (ESPN leaderboard), well outside the top five, so the bet loses.
“I like Brooks Koepka,”
Brooks Koepka tied for 4th at -6 while Dustin Johnson tied for 51st at +3 at the 2019 Open Championship (ESPN leaderboard), so Koepka wins the head-to-head matchup.
“Ohio State not and I just don think they going to get over 10 and I happily put my money on the under with these guys”
Ohio State went 13-0 through the regular season and Big Ten Championship in 2019 (ESPN schedule), well past 10 wins, so the under-10-wins bet loses.
“So give me two teams whose win totals you hate right now that most people would look at and say national title contenders. I hate Ohio State and I hate Washington and when I say hate that means I using the money that I can to get under their win totals and that is certainly in the face of a lot of people that I hearing out there who love Ohio State They love Justin Fields transferring in from Georgia They love Ryan Day as the head coach”
Washington finished the 2019 regular season 7-5 (ESPN schedule), under a typical preseason win total, so the under bet wins.
“But there is one game, there is one team in the SEC that I feel like you have severely potentially overvalued the Missouri Tigers. Ooh, and that's supposed to be this, you know, for my alum from Arkansas, we have this made-up rivalry with Missouri. I don't know why they keep pushing it. It's not a real rivalry, but you're right. Missouri is, I think, fantastic. My number matches nobody else. I haven't seen anybody go, I haven't seen anybody put out a win total and stand by it that's over eight. I've seen eight in some places. That's what it's listed in Vegas, and that's what it's listed in Jersey. But I've got this number over nine. I would take this at eight. I would take this at eight and a half. and let's talk about the transfer situation. Kelly Bryant comes in from Clemson. Obviously, Missouri was able to win that battle with some of the other teams that were vying for him to play quarterback. They retained their running back, Larry Roundtree. Missouri has four wide receivers that had 50-plus targets last year. Kelly Bryant has a ton of weapons. Defense was seventh in rushing S&P last year, and they get their top linebacker back, Cale Garrett, who accounted for 15% of the team tackles, and they return their top five defensive backs in the secondary, which is great. Their non-conference schedule is filled with teams that are incompetent on offense. We're talking Troy, West Virginia. That's a Will Greer, less West Virginia. We're talking Wyoming and the powerhouse of Southeast Missouri. It's really a really easy schedule. As far as conference play goes, they've got the two worst teams in the West, which is Arkansas and Ole Miss. Missouri over eight. They've got all the weapons. They're going to make a run. They have a chip on their shoulder because of this bull band, which I think is going to be lifted at some point. But Missouri over eight, definitely.”
Missouri finished the 2019 regular season 6-6 (ESPN schedule), short of 8 wins, so the over-8-wins bet loses.
“wake everything going on but uh east carolina i i loved it this year and i kind of feel like uh everybody's starting to catch on because wind totals are out for all the teams now and I had to fire on three and a half and I had to fire on over four”
East Carolina finished the 2019 regular season 4-8 (ESPN schedule), landing exactly on the 4-win line, so the over-4-wins bet pushes.
“BYU is a must-watch this year, and they're an over six and a half play.”
BYU finished the 2019 regular season 7-5 (ESPN schedule), over 6.5 wins, so the over-6.5-wins bet wins.
“Wob, what am I doing? Well, I mean, for the same reasons why I personally, I had the Warriors in Game 5, even in Toronto, despite having the Raptors for the series, I thought they were going to play with a lot of nervous energy at home. And I thought the Warriors were going to get out quick on them, is what I said.”
Toronto Raptors defeated Golden State 4-2 in the 2019 NBA Finals, clinching Game 6 114-110 on June 13, 2019, so the futures bet on Raptors to win the Finals wins.
“insane that you're getting six points with the Toronto [22:52] Raptors. If you don't bet the Raptors at six, [22:54] get your head examined.”
123-109 — Raptors beat Warriors 123-109 in Game 3 of the 2019 NBA Finals (June 5, 2019); Toronto's 14-point margin covers +6 (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, but I got to get back to the office. Number one, have you made any NFL futures bets? I feel like we're going to have to start thinking about that for a show soon. I have not. I have. It's too soon. No, it's not. It's too soon. It's not too soon to bet on the Colts. I bet I'm at 18 to 1.”
KC 31, SF 20 — The Kansas City Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers 31-20 in Super Bowl LIV on February 2, 2020; the Colts finished 2019 at 7-9 and missed the playoffs entirely, so Colts-to-win-the-Super-Bowl loses.
“I got the Mets to win the NL.”
WSH 4, STL 0 (NLCS) — The Washington Nationals won the 2019 NL pennant (swept St. Louis 4-0) and went on to win the World Series; the Mets finished 86-76 and missed the playoffs, so Mets-to-win-the-NL loses.
“And to win the World Series.”
WSH 4, HOU 3 — The Washington Nationals won the 2019 World Series over Houston 4-3; the Mets finished 86-76 and missed the playoffs entirely, so Mets-to-win-the-World-Series loses.
“I bought the Boston Red Sox a 12-1 when they were sort of mired in a little bit of a streak.”
WSH 4, HOU 3 — The Washington Nationals won the 2019 World Series over Houston 4-3; the Red Sox finished 84-78, third in the AL East, and missed the playoffs, so Red Sox-to-win-the-World-Series loses.
“You're making me feel good because I laid the seven and a half tonight with Golden State, so I like it.”
GS 114, POR 111 — Golden State beat Portland 114-111 in West Finals Game 2 (May 16, 2019), a 3-point margin that falls short of the -7.5 spread, so Warriors -7.5 busts.
“abysmal dare we do a little money line parlay Nuggets Raptors I mean they tell me that money line parlays are they tell me parlays are kind of negative expected value so i don't know if we should be recommending that are we a bunch of nerds i mean if we if you were to parlay the raptors and nuggets money line it's plus 342 right now we could turn that 100 into a sweet 342 so that's what you're advocating that's that's what you're going with it that's what i'm doing how many how many uh what percentage of your bets are partly very few very few i thought”
PHI 112, TOR 101 — Both legs lost on the night: Philadelphia 76ers beat Toronto Raptors 112-101 (East Semis Game 6) and Portland Trail Blazers beat Denver Nuggets 119-108 (West Semis Game 6) on May 9, 2019, so the Raptors ML + Nuggets ML parlay busts.
“Give me your teams that you are most bullish on their season win totals The over and the under Okay so the two over bets that I looking to place right now is going to be Oklahoma State. That's over six. That's a ridiculous number. I know it's juiced right now, but it's a play at six. It's a play at six and a half.”
Oklahoma State finished the 2019 college football season 8-5, clearing the over 6 (6.5) wins line. (Oklahoma State 2019: 8-5)
“Utah over eight and a half, I like Utah to go to the, I like Utah to go to the college football”
Utah finished the 2019 college football season 11-3, well over the over 8.5 wins line. (Utah Utes 2019: 11-3)
“Pac-12 championship game with one loss and being able to play their way into the playoff. A 10-1 bet on Utah to win the Pac-12? Please, yes.”
Oregon beat Utah 37-15 in the 2019 Pac-12 Championship Game (Dec 6, 2019), so Utah did not win the Pac-12; the futures bet lost.
“So we will be at Belmont Park on Saturday to watch the Kentucky Derby there. Come join us. In the lap of luxury. Let's talk about this race, Paul. What are we seeing here? We're a couple of days out. The forecast in Louisville for Saturday is calling for rain right now. Give me the horses that you like to win the race and potentially some long shots to hit the board for some exotics. Well, I truly think only five horses can win this race, and it's Omaha Beach, game winner, improbable. Roadster. Roadster. and i'm starting to go away from tacitus a little bit here's the thing about tacitus tacitus is a horse that's an east coast based horse that we don't know what he's really faced now omaha beach is a horse that has now beaten two baffert horses um i don't know how i would put that into terms into another sport um but it's insanely hard to do to beat two baffert horses that are going on the derby trail so you have three baffert horses and a mandela horse his main jockey takes omaha beach um and mike smith when we had on the radio show and big factor by the way big big factor i mean the road justify last year the triple crown guys guys ice in his veins um i like game winner but if it rains uh i don't think they're gonna beat omaha beach i mean mike has confirmed i mean he he basically told me and i'll tell it to everybody i i don't like hiding tips i don like it he basically told me goes listen if it rains i if i don run second i running first or second he basically told me And the horse is a freak over the way And that the thing We seen if you watched this horse we gave him to you in the Arkansas Derby a couple of weeks ago as a winner He won that race. A couple of weeks before that, he wins at the Rebel Stakes. Both of those were on sloppy tracks in the rain, and he looked outstanding in both. Yes. If it's raining at Churchill Downs, it would be foolish not to bet that horse. Game winner? Listen, game winner was the horse I was on up until the Arkansas Derby. I've loved game winners. The two-year-old champion, won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile out in Churchill Downs, so he's won at Churchill before. I just think Omaha Beach in this weather with Mike Smith is the horse to beat, but I can't fault game winner. I have a future on game winner. I took him at 6-1 thinking I wasn't going to get better than that.”
Country House won the 2019 Kentucky Derby (via disqualification of Maximum Security); Game Winner finished 5th, so the futures bet lost.
“Arizona Cardinals over five wins. Over. Easily.”
Arizona finished the 2019 season 5-10-1, which does not clear an over 5 wins line, so the over lost. (Arizona Cardinals 2019: 5-10-1)
“But teams that I don't really – that I'm betting the under on is the New Orleans Saints. And that's where – they kind of came into the draft with not a lot of draft capital. So, you know, I don't hate their picks necessarily as much as the fact that they didn't have any of them. So, you know, and they traded up a couple times again. So, you know, they're a team that – I just don't think that their roster really, you know, is going to be significantly improved. and I think it's a very kind of top-heavy, fragile team. And, you know, they depend on Drew Brees being great a lot of the time. And, you know, even with their receiving core, I mean, you know, Michael Thomas is commanding about 30% of the targets there. So if something happens to him, it's a problem. Same thing, Alvin Kamara, if something happens to him, it's a problem. So I think that team is a team where Drew Brees didn't look right to me over the second half. Their win total was 10.5. I'm betting the under, you know, they could be a 10-win team, a 9- or 10-win team, and I can still win that bet.”
New Orleans finished the 2019 regular season 13-3, far over the 10.5 wins line, so the under lost. (New Orleans Saints 2019: 13-3)
“Do you want to know which team I've already bet on to win the Super Bowl? Which team? The Indianapolis Colts. Ooh. They've done some type of life. I bet them... I bet them, I think, it 18 to 1 and I look at that team and felt like they just like they figured out who they were”
Indianapolis finished the 2019 regular season 7-9 and missed the playoffs, so the Colts never reached Super Bowl LIV (won by Kansas City); the futures bet lost. (Indianapolis Colts 2019: 7-9)
“I'm on Milwaukee on over 115 versus Detroit in a closeout game on the road”
127-104 — Bucks beat Pistons 127-104 in Game 4 of the first round (Apr 22, 2019); Bucks' team total of 127 clears the over 115 line.
“So what do you think of Houston? What is the team total for the Rockets right now? What are you going to do about it? It's over 105.5, and I'm definitely on the over. If we look at last game, they had an absolutely apocalyptic night, or just an absolutely horrific night from James Harden, one of the worst playoff games I've ever seen him play. He was 0 of 15. That totals all the way up to 109 now. It's moved up, and I'm still going to be on the over.”
91-107 — Jazz beat Rockets 107-91 in Game 4 of the first round (Apr 22, 2019); Rockets' team total of 91 is well under the over 109 line.
“The other one I really like tonight is the Jazz under at 106.”
91-107 — Jazz beat Rockets 107-91 in Game 4 of the first round (Apr 22, 2019); Jazz's team total of 107 exceeds the under 106 line.
“Saturday, Arkansas Derby down at Oak Lawn. Who you got? Omaha Beach is going to be tough in there. I know Improbable or the other Baffert. Improbable can suck it I on Omaha Beach I with you too I like the way he held off game winner and I thought Game Winner might have hung a little bit in that race Mike Smith brother I not betting against Mike Smith in these races”
Omaha Beach won the 2019 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 13, 2019, so the Omaha Beach win bet cashes.
“I'm laying the five with Virginia”
63-62 — Virginia beat Auburn 63-62 in the 2019 Final Four national semifinal on April 6, 2019, a margin of +1, which does not cover the -5 spread, so the Virginia -5 bet loses.
“I like the Indianapolis Colts at about 16 to 1 to win the Super Bowl”
The Colts finished 7-9 and missed the 2019 NFL playoffs; the Chiefs beat the 49ers 31-20 in Super Bowl LIV, so the Colts-to-win-the-Super-Bowl future loses.
“here's what I'm doing this is how I want to end the podcast two things I'm going with the Colts to win the Super Bowl at about 16 to 1 I am going to go with the Browns under 9”
The 2019 Cleveland Browns finished 6-10, under the 9-win line, so the under cashes.
“I'm going with Virginia, minus five and a half”
63-62 — Virginia beat Auburn 63-62 in the 2019 Final Four national semifinal on April 6, 2019, a margin of +1, which does not cover the -5.5 spread, so the Virginia -5.5 bet loses.
“UNC is a five-and-a-half-point favorite against Auburn. You like them number one overall. Do you like them as a five-and-a-half-point favorite? Oh, I do.”
97-80 — Auburn upset North Carolina 97-80 in the Sweet 16 on Mar 29, 2019; North Carolina lost outright by 17, so the -5.5 spread did not cover.
“I love that logic. I have Houston at 70-1 to win the title. So they're two-and-a-half point dogs at Kentucky this weekend. I bet Kentucky. I hedged a little bit and I bet Kentucky at two-and-a-half. Blackjack, why are you making that face? There's nothing wrong with what I did.”
62-58 — Kentucky beat Houston 62-58 in the Sweet 16 on Mar 29, 2019, a 4-point margin, covering -2.5.
“I bet Virginia Tech on the money line.”
75-73 — Duke beat Virginia Tech 75-73 in the Sweet 16 on Mar 29, 2019, so Virginia Tech ML lost.
“That line, I think, is 7.5. I like that pick a lot. I'm going to grab the 7.5, and I certainly like the money line. But, Mike, I have to ask this because you just said a minute ago when Chad asked you his very broad question about your power rankings, you had Duke, I believe, number three in there, and said that this was a familiar game for Duke as part of the reason why you had them ranked so high. So then why is betting Virginia Tech on the money line a good bet? Well, the reason is this, because when I did the power rankings, I looked at likelihood to win the title. I don't think Virginia Tech can put the games together to win a title. I think Duke can. Now, I don't think Duke's going to get by this game, but the winner of this game to me is absolutely winning the next game. So I think this is an odd one, but if you think about it, it makes sense. Duke has a better chance to win the title than Virginia Tech, but they've got to get by this game. It was similar to my Buffalo-Texas Tech thought the other day. Whoever wins that game I thought was making the Final Four, and I thought this was the toughest game for Buffalo. So if you're asking me for a future, I'm not betting Virginia Tech to win the title, but I think Duke is, even though the odds aren't good, is a better bet to win the title. But this is the tough game they have to get through. I love his logic. By the way, I am all in on Virginia Tech only because of Stucky and Randall.”
75-73 — Duplicate Virginia Tech ML pick on the same game; Duke won 75-73 on Mar 29, 2019, so it lost.
“Mike, Florida State, Gonzaga. Gonzaga is a seven and a half point favorite. Obviously, we've seen this game before. Florida State in my final four. Shut the fuck up for a minute and let the guest answer the question. Maybe you should ask the question. I'm in the middle of it. Florida State, Gonzaga. Seven and a half, Mike. what do you think about this? We've seen it before you know, do the Seminoles have a chance to win this game outright? It comes down to your thoughts on Killian Tilly that's what it comes down to. Phil Koffer's not going to be there with the passing of his father. But if you look at the game last year, that was when Killian Tilly was announced. It was a four versus nine game that he wasn't eligible because he got injured, so he couldn't play in that game. In that game, Florida State battled Gonzaga and went right back and forth. The defense was at a premium, and everything was very close across the board except for one area, and that was with the rebounds. Florida State was able to get a lot of offensive rebounds, put stuff back in the basket. It's Killian Tilly. I think this is a bad matchup for Gonzaga. I'm grabbing those points. Could Gonzaga get the win? Sure, but so could Florida State, and you're going to give me that many points. If you think Killian Tilly's presence inside is going to make that big a difference, then you go with Gonzaga, but I'm going the other way. I'll gladly take those points.”
72-58 — Gonzaga beat Florida State 72-58 in the Sweet 16 on Mar 28, 2019, a 14-point margin, so Florida State did not cover +7.5.
“I'll take Purdue with the way Carson Edwards is playing to win outright,”
99-94 — Purdue beat Tennessee 99-94 in overtime in the Sweet 16 on Mar 28, 2019, so Purdue ML won.
“Because in the other two games, Purdue-Tennessee, Tennessee minus one, Texas Tech, Michigan, Michigan minus one and a half, UVA-Oregon, UVA minus seven and a half. Give me your winning cover for each game. Purdue's going to beat Tennessee. Tennessee has had issues in each and every game. They almost blew that game to Iowa. How is it possible that you don't score that many points in the second half on Iowa? How is that even possible? They don't play any defense. I'll take Purdue with the way Carson Edwards is playing to win outright, and then the spread right now is one and a half. That's an easy one. Michigan-Texas Tech is a phenomenal game. Michigan, something has been off with their offense all year. Their three-point shooting has been very inconsistent. Teske inside does a nice job when he's not really pressed by athletic bigs, which he's going to be in this game. Texas Tech defense is at such a high. I'm going to take them, and I'll take the one and a half as well for that game.”
63-44 — Texas Tech beat Michigan 63-44 in the Sweet 16 on Mar 28, 2019, a 19-point margin, covering +1.5.
“UVA-Oregon, UVA minus seven and a half. Give me your winning cover for each game. Purdue's going to beat Tennessee. Tennessee has had issues in each and every game. They almost blew that game to Iowa. How is it possible that you don't score that many points in the second half on Iowa? How is that even possible? They don't play any defense. I'll take Purdue with the way Carson Edwards is playing to win outright, and then the spread right now is one and a half. That's an easy one. Michigan-Texas Tech is a phenomenal game. Michigan, something has been off with their offense all year. Their three-point shooting has been very inconsistent. Teske inside does a nice job when he's not really pressed by athletic bigs, which he's going to be in this game. Texas Tech defense is at such a high. I'm going to take them, and I'll take the one and a half as well for that game. And then UVA-Oregon, I buy the Tony Bennett Redemption Tour. I think they're a very tough matchup. Oregon is still a 12-seat, guys. That's what they are. They have been hot, but they're going to be against a very disciplined Virginia team, shoots the three well, he has free throws, and makes you play their tempo. So I'll take UVA, and I will give those points as well against Oregon.”
53-49 — Virginia beat Oregon 53-49 in the Sweet 16 on Mar 28, 2019, only a 4-point margin, so Virginia did not cover -7.5.
“I want to start with win totals. Yeah, absolutely. That's where I focus the majority of my time. So definitely I think we can find some edges in that market. Chicago White Sox right now under 74 and a half. That's what you like. Is that because they didn't get Manny Machado? Yeah, I think the White Sox line was inflated a little bit”
The White Sox finished the 2019 regular season 72-89, under 74.5 wins, so the under wins. (White Sox 72-89)
“Your MLB win totals, some of your highlights here. Atlanta, under 86.5. Arizona, over 74.5. Chicago Cubs, under 89.5. Chicago White Sox, under 74.5. Seattle, over 71.5. And as you just mentioned... The 2-0 Seattle Mariners. That's right. I might add. Tampa Bay over 84.5.”
The Diamondbacks finished the 2019 regular season 85-77, over 74.5 wins, so the over wins. (Diamondbacks 85-77)
“Atlanta, under 86.5.”
The Braves finished the 2019 regular season 97-65, well over 86.5 wins, so the under loses. (Braves 97-65)
“Your MLB win totals, some of your highlights here. Atlanta, under 86.5. Arizona, over 74.5. Chicago Cubs, under 89.5.”
The Cubs finished the 2019 regular season 84-78, under 89.5 wins, so the under wins. (Cubs 84-78)
“Seattle, over 71.5. And as you just mentioned... The 2-0 Seattle Mariners.”
The 2019 Mariners finished 68-94, falling short of 71.5 wins, so the over loses. (Mariners 68-94)
“Tampa Bay over 84.5.”
The 2019 Rays finished 96-66, well over 84.5 wins, so the over cashes. (Rays 96-66)
“All right. So right now, Schwartz and Blackjack are on the opposite sides of Wisconsin, Oregon. And I am on the opposite side of UC Irvine and Kansas State. I have UC Irvine. Blackjack and Paul both have Kansas State. We can move on to the next region which includes Paula Duca In Northeastern area It just a funky line What are you checking on your phone”
70-64 — UC Irvine upset Kansas State 70-64 in the first round on Mar 22, 2019, so UC Irvine ML won.
“I'll bet you right now. They're not winning the game. They're big. The way Irvine does this, by the way, is if Oregon upsets Wisconsin, they play Oregon in the round of 32, and then it's a much easier opponent to play. Agreed, but they're not winning against Kansas State. Oh, my God. They are so winning against Kansas State. No, they're not. They got no shot.”
70-64 — UC Irvine upset Kansas State 70-64 on Mar 22, 2019, so Kansas State ML lost.
“Irvine? Yes. Over K-State. That line has dropped like five points. UC Irvine is going to the Sweet 16. No, they're not. No, they're not. They're not winning this game. Both of you. Both of you can beat me right now. I'll bet you right now. They're not winning the game. They're big. The way Irvine does this, by the way, is if Oregon upsets Wisconsin, they play Oregon in the round of 32, and then it's a much easier opponent to play. Agreed, but they're not winning against Kansas State. Oh, my God. They are so winning against Kansas State. No, they're not. They got no shot.”
70-64 — UC Irvine upset Kansas State 70-64 on Mar 22, 2019, so Paul's Kansas State ML lost.
“Blackjack and I have bet you see your vine. Schwartz, you wind in on this? Anyone want to take some Wisconsin action? I'll take Wisconsin. Who are they playing? Oregon. Oregon.”
72-54 — Oregon beat Wisconsin 72-54 in the first round on Mar 22, 2019, so Wisconsin ML lost.
“Schwartz, you wind in on this? Anyone want to take some Wisconsin action? I'll take Wisconsin. Who are they playing? Oregon. Oregon. I'm going to root for you. I can't root against you. I'll take Wisconsin. Although they might score like 90 points total in that game. Let's do it. You're at Arizona State tonight. St. John's. Are you? I mean, come on. Here's the thing. My father went to St. John's, and so me and my father already made a bet. Okay. Hold on. Now I've got to start making notes because I've got to remember who's got what. Everyone knows that Paul LeDuc can't make more than one bet. I want to chat. I'm going to ask you a trivia question. My father went to St. John's in inception. Guess who his baseball coach was? Luis Carlos II. Great call. He was the baseball and basketball coach. How good was that? Legend. Louis Karnasek. But that's like Trivial Pursuit, right? Like if they give you a question, it's generally going to be the one thing that you know. That is true. He was the baseball basketball player. The only thing I know about St. John's is like Louis Karnasek. Yep. All right. So right now, Schwartz and Blackjack are on the opposite sides of Wisconsin, Oregon. And I am on the opposite side of UC Irvine and Kansas State. I have UC Irvine. Blackjack and Paul both have Kansas State.”
72-54 — Oregon beat Wisconsin 72-54 in the first round on Mar 22, 2019, so Oregon ML won.
“So you like Wofford there? I do. The Terriers? You want to bet this one, too? I like Wofford at minus three, sure. Another 50? Yeah. Another 50? Let's do it. Okay. Pauly, you want in on that? Oh, I like the Pirates. I like Wofford. Wow. Yeah. All right, so Jeff and I will both bet you together. I don't know how we do that.”
84-68 — Wofford beat Seton Hall 84-68 on Mar 21, 2019, a 16-point margin, easily covering -3.
“I like Wofford at minus three, sure.”
84-68 — Duplicate Wofford -3 pick on the same game; Wofford won 84-68 on Mar 21, 2019, covering -3.
“So you like Wofford there? I do. The Terriers? You want to bet this one, too? I like Wofford at minus three, sure. Another 50? Yeah. Another 50? Let's do it. Okay.”
84-68 — Wofford beat Seton Hall 84-68 on Mar 21, 2019, so Seton Hall +3 failed to cover.
“I'm just waiting to see Zion and Taco Fall go at it in the second round game. Hopefully UCF wins, beats VCU, and Zion tries to dunk on 7-7 Taco Fall. That's all I want to see. You don't think UCF beats VCU? I don't. Oh, I do. Oh, sorry, bet. You want to do it again? Bet me 50 bucks. All right, fine, let's do it.”
73-58 — UCF beat VCU 73-58 in the first round on Mar 22, 2019, so UCF ML won.
“You don't think UCF beats VCU? I don't. Oh, I do. Oh, sorry, bet. You want to do it again? Bet me 50 bucks. All right, fine, let's do it.”
73-58 — UCF beat VCU 73-58 on Mar 22, 2019, so VCU ML lost.
“first off Mike Randall the first bets you made tell me the first bet I looked at and Stucky and I talked about this last night on the podcast St. Mary's is not the matchup for Villanova right now it's 6 I put it in last night on our Action Network app please download it if you haven't you can follow all of our bets St. Mary's defends the three-pointer very well.”
61-57 — Villanova beat Saint Mary's 61-57 in the South Regional first round on Mar 21, 2019; Saint Mary's lost by only 4, covering the +6.
“This UC Irvine team is deep, they're experienced, they're well coached, and that defense is going to keep them in it. The other thing is, this game is going to be ugly. I mean, I played under 120 as well, as well as plus 5.5. I mean, I think it's first to 50, which makes those five points even more of a premium. But I think Irvine's legit. I think Irvine's going to the Sweet 16.”
70-64 — UC Irvine upset Kansas State 70-64 in the first round on Mar 22, 2019, winning outright and covering +5.5.
“I mean, I played under 120”
70-64 — UC Irvine beat Kansas State 70-64 on Mar 22, 2019; the combined 134 points went well over the 120 total, so the Under lost.
“The AFC North division futures. The Cleveland Browns are favored at plus 125. The Steelers are plus 250. The Ravens at plus 275. And the Bengals at plus 800. Where are you putting your money on the AFC North teams to start this season? This is absolutely wild. The answer is the Pittsburgh Steelers at plus 250.”
The Baltimore Ravens won the 2019 AFC North with a 14-2 record; the Pittsburgh Steelers finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs, so the +250 Steelers division future loses.
“Now, Paul, I heard you grunting a minute ago. What are your thoughts on the AFC North? Well, I mean, you look at Baltimore. Okay, what's the Lamar Jackson's experiment? Is that going to roll over to year two, or are teams going to figure that out quickly? But Baltimore is still going to have a solid, solid defense. So I'm with both of you guys. I think Pittsburgh is the play in here. um i i truly think since the antonio brown facebook thing a while ago he's just been a guy in that locker room that yes he's been the best player but good riddance it was good riddance with bell um midway through the season and now they can just sit there and play football instead of worrying about all this other stuff and i get it cleveland did get better but again losing has been a disease in cleveland and until they win my money is not going there and you know something else to talk about with the Steelers is they've been a team that's been an underperforming”
The Baltimore Ravens won the 2019 AFC North with a 14-2 record; the Pittsburgh Steelers finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs, so Paul's Pittsburgh division future loses.
“So Texas is one of my favorite ones at 12-1.”
Iowa State 78, Kansas 66 — Iowa State beat Kansas 78-66 to win the 2019 Big 12 tournament; Texas did not win, so the +1200 Texas futures bet loses.
“You know, I got Kentucky at 28-1 right after the Duke game [42:48] because betters just jumped off of Kentucky for a while [42:53] because they look so bad.”
Virginia beat Texas Tech 85-77 in overtime to win the 2019 NCAA championship; Kentucky was eliminated in the Elite Eight by Auburn 77-71 in overtime, so the +2800 Kentucky title future loses.
“So I'm going to go with Virginia at plus 200 in the ACC tournament.”
Duke 73, Florida State 63 — Duke beat Florida State 73-63 to win the 2019 ACC tournament; Virginia lost to Florida State 59-69 in the semifinal, so the +200 Virginia futures bet loses.
“so you need me plus 250 on kansas in the big 12 that's where i'm gonna go”
Iowa State 78, Kansas 66 — Iowa State beat Kansas 78-66 in the 2019 Big 12 tournament championship game; Kansas did not win, so the +250 futures bet loses.
“I'll tell you what, though. I do believe that Texas Tech and Kansas are the two best teams in that by far, the two best teams in the Big 12. I really do. You have to understand, too, Kansas has got the number one strength of schedule. They've played against the number one offenses, adjusted offenses in the nation. So that's where I'll lean Kansas over Texas Tech. I do think Texas Tech is good, very good. But like I said, I'll take the plus money. And I think Kansas will go far in the tournament.”
Iowa State 78, Kansas 66 — Iowa State beat Kansas 78-66 in the 2019 Big 12 tournament championship game; Kansas did not win, so Paul's Kansas tournament future loses.
“And the other one is Texas A&M, plus 11, plus 12. [34:21] I love fading LSU in these spots because they're so young.”
55-66 — LSU beat Texas A&M 66-55 on Feb 26, 2019, a margin of exactly 11; with the pick's stored line at +11, Texas A&M's cover margin lands exactly on the number, making this a push.
“All right, Paulie. So you're going over on the Red Sox at 95.5. They're minus 115 on both sides of that bet.”
The Red Sox finished the 2019 regular season 84-78, under the 95.5 win total, so the over loses. (Red Sox 84-78)
“it's the washington nationals they're over under is 87 and a half and i think [6:32] this is an absolute over the nationals”
The Nationals finished the 2019 regular season 93-69, clearing the 87.5 win total, so the over wins. (Nationals 93-69)
“What's the next total you're interested in, Paulie? I'm interested in the Manny Machado. Everybody's going to go with maybe the Padres now, the overreaction. What's the matter with the Colorado Rockies? I know you like this. I do. I know you love this. I do. I mean, two years in a row, now they have made the playoffs. And Bud Black, I think a lot of people are forgetting how good of a job Bud Black has really done there. Bud Black's the last guy to have the Padres do anything when he managed them. No, that's true. And I know that they lose a couple guys here and there, but they got some young guys that are up on the horizon. You know, it was a shame for me that they didn't get to see or we haven't got to see Kyle Freeland pitch in the playoffs because I think a lot of people are going to see a young lefty or haven't seen a young lefty that is very, very good. And he's got better splits at Coors Field, or at least he did last year than he did on the road. You know, Garrett Hampson is a guy who's a – and infielder was in the minor leagues that can steal close to 40 bases that they're looking forward to. Nolan Arenado is in his contract year. Listen, to me, he's the best third baseman in baseball, if not the best defensive third baseman or all around. and he's going to be coveted by the Yankees. I mean, I would think he's going to be in pinstripes next year. The Rockies need to make a move this year and they clearly the second team especially with the Diamondbacks just unloading everybody I mean you right I do love this And the over is juiced to minus 150 as a result of it The over-under is 82 and a half.”
The Rockies finished the 2019 regular season 71-91, well under the 82.5 win total, so the over loses. (Rockies 71-91)
“the yankees over under 95 and a half here um same total as the red [23:19] socks ironically juiced a little bit to the over at minus 125 the under minus 105 i'm gonna go over [23:26] with the yankees paulie”
The Yankees finished the 2019 regular season 103-59, far over the 95.5 win total, so the over wins. (Yankees 103-59)
“You've got an interesting take on the LA Angels. Their over-under is 83.5, juiced a little bit to the over at minus 125. What do you think about the Angels? Well, I think it's a sneaky team. Obviously, they lose Socia, and now they get Brad Ausmus as their manager, who a lot of people thought was going to be a very good manager, and he did not have a good first time around, considering he had some boys on that team with Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, and Detroit could not win. So I'm a little worried about that. But I do think Trevor Cahill and Matt Harvey are sneaky pickups. You know, Matt pitched pretty well after he left New York for Cincinnati. Better than I thought he would. You know, here's a guy that lost a rib. I think a lot of people forget about that. He lost a rib? Yeah they had to take out a rib And like I said he pitched a little better Not for sexual reasons right No no And he wasn't a malcontent in Cincinnati. I really feel that he just wanted so out of New York that he sabotaged that whole situation. And that it's just over with and he's back to pitching. So those two guys to me I thought were big pickups. you know uh griffin canning's a young guy at ucla that is a stud that went from a ball to triple a last year they shut him down because he had so many innings at ucla he's going to be in that rotation this year um i think he's another guy and guys young arms like that can be sneaky young arms that that the league hasn't seen um and i think that the under and over on this team is good enough uh that it's playable otani's going to be out for a while but you know it was more of a hype and i think than anything else and and maybe that will put pitching aside and maybe he can come back and be more of a dh than than worry about his pitching as of right now all right so you do like the over on the angels right yeah i do okay i do all right so uh let's wrap up paulie with uh”
The Angels finished the 2019 regular season 72-90, under the 83.5 win total, so the over loses. (Angels 72-90)
“the school robert morris okay they're minus four tonight uh hosting liu brooklyn [38:05] so you're on robert morris for kk l o kk that's paulie's lock of the day”
62-49 — Robert Morris beat LIU Brooklyn 62-49 on Feb 21, 2019, covering the -4 spread comfortably.
“Birmingham versus Atlanta. [31:09] I do like Birmingham. [31:11] Luis Perez talked him up a ton. [31:12] And Atlanta is just so bad with Matt Sims. [31:15] There are a bunch of coaches that have left in the last month. [31:17] So I got Birmingham.”
28-12 — Birmingham Iron beat Atlanta Legends 28-12 in AAF Week 3, so Birmingham to win cashes.
“I went and bet Marquette, I bet Kansas State, and I bet Washington, [42:20] all at more than 100 to win the college basketball title”
Virginia won the 2019 NCAA championship on April 8, 2019; Marquette was eliminated in the first round by Murray State, so this futures bet loses.
“I went and bet Marquette, I bet Kansas State, and I bet Washington, [42:20] all at more than 100 to win the college basketball title”
Virginia won the 2019 NCAA championship on April 8, 2019; Kansas State was eliminated in the first round by UC Irvine, so this futures bet loses.
“I went and bet Marquette, I bet Kansas State, and I bet Washington, [42:20] all at more than 100 to win the college basketball title”
Virginia won the 2019 NCAA championship on April 8, 2019; Washington was eliminated in the second round by North Carolina, so this futures bet loses.
“It's Team LeBron. He's stacked that team. I mean, LeBron, Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving. The team is loaded, man. There's no way they're losing that game. They're, I think, a three-and-a-half-point favorite. I'll lay it.”
178-164 — Team LeBron beat Team Giannis 178-164 in the 2019 NBA All-Star Game; margin of 14 covers the -3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“To run it down, we are both on Team LeBron at minus three and a half.”
178-164 — Team LeBron beat Team Giannis 178-164 in the 2019 NBA All-Star Game; margin of 14 covers the -3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“What's next? Who wins the dunk contest? I hear Dennis Smith Jr. is the favorite. I'm sure you've got great analysis on this one. I am going with Dennis Smith Jr. in this one, actually.”
Hamidou Diallo won the 2019 NBA Slam Dunk Contest, not Dennis Smith Jr., so this futures bet loses.
“I'm going to go with John Collins.”
Hamidou Diallo won the 2019 NBA Slam Dunk Contest, not John Collins, so this futures bet loses.
“Who wins the three-point contest? To be honest, I like Steph Curry. Hmm. You got nothing here, do you? Too many names. Hold on. Let me look up the odds here. You going to take Larry Bird? Is he doing it? Devin Booker plus 520. Steph is plus 220. How do you not go with Seth Curry? That's where I'm going. Yeah. I like that. Plus 466.”
Joe Harris beat Stephen Curry in the final of the 2019 NBA Three-Point Contest; Seth Curry was eliminated in the first round, so this futures bet loses.
“For the three-point contest, I am on – who was I on again? Joe Harris at plus 674. You're on Seth Curry at plus 466. So we have a $25 bet on that one.”
Joe Harris won the 2019 NBA Three-Point Contest, beating Stephen Curry in the final, so the futures pick on Harris cashes.
“so there's a thing called the skills contest apparently you can bet on it who's gonna win that blackjack luka donchich this contest is tailor-made for luka donchich he's fast he's got great handles he can pass the ball very accurately and he's a good enough shooter to win it there's A lot of really talented guys in this, but I think you need to have the ability to do this stuff, almost all of it on the first try. We see a lot of guys get hung up when they're trying to pass the ball into the net there. If you miss that a few times, your time is just not going to be good enough to win it. Doncic, I think, has the best vision and passing of anyone in this. He's quick. I Luka Doncic here.”
Jayson Tatum won the 2019 NBA Skills Challenge (beating Mike Conley, then Nikola Jokic, then the Trae Young/Luka Doncic semifinal winner in the final); Luka Doncic did not win, so this futures bet loses.
“All right, another 25. I'm taking Jokic. You're taking Donchic. Mm-hmm. All right. Deal. Done. What else we got? Wasn't that everything? It was everything, right? Those were all the ones we're going to do. To run it down, we are both on Team LeBron at minus three and a half. For the three-point contest, I am on – who was I on again? Joe Harris at plus 674. You're on Seth Curry at plus 466. So we have a $25 bet on that one. On the Skills Challenge, you are on Luka. I am on Nikola. Luka is at plus 400. Nikola is at plus 500. We have a $25 bet on that one.”
Jayson Tatum won the 2019 NBA Skills Challenge, beating Nikola Jokic in the semifinal before winning the final; Jokic did not win, so this futures bet loses.
“I am betting on the Houston Texans because, you know, I love me some Deshaun Watson. We saw what he did in year one. They kind of had some offensive line problems this year. They didn't get in as many shootouts, but he still balled. Deshaun Watson and the Texans, I'm betting on.”
The Texans lost 51-31 to the Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round (Jan 12, 2020) and did not reach Super Bowl LIV, so the futures bet busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm betting on the Kansas City Chiefs.”
The Kansas City Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers 31-20 in Super Bowl LIV (Feb 2, 2020), so the futures bet cashes (ESPN box score).
“But I do like Green Book for Best Picture. What about the controversy? There's controversy there. About Shirley and his family. Yes. There is, but I feel like the Academy is just going to, I think the Academy still enjoyed the movie, and I think the way they kind of presented the story of you have this kind of biracial friendship going on and all these things I think they still gonna dig it And you kind of hit kind of hit on it a couple of weeks ago and I take that bet I don know if they going to give a Netflix film best Yeah Like he Cuaron getting I think he getting a best director. Yeah. I think that's a lock, but for best picture, a lot of times it's a late pusher. And if you look at, you know, who's been kind of getting the late push up the odds, it's been green book. And so, you know, it hasn't happened often where you win a best picture without a best directed now only four times. Argo was the last one, so it can happen in modern day. And I think, yeah, my money's there. I got it at plus $350 a couple days ago. So I'm feeling decent about it.”
Green Book won Best Picture at the 91st Academy Awards (Feb 24, 2019), so the +350 futures bet cashes.
“I am decidedly on the side of anybody who taking the Rams either honestly I might take them on the money line but I certainly liking them at two and a half and if it gets back to Sunday and I can get him at three all the better”
NE 13, LAR 3 — Rams lost to the Patriots 3-13 in Super Bowl LIII, a 10-point margin, so the +2.5 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“I like over 56.5.”
NE 13, LAR 3 — Super Bowl LIII finished Patriots 13, Rams 3 (combined 16 points), well under the 56.5 total (ESPN box score).
“I'm not surprised if the Rams were doing it, [9:30] but I'm taking the Patriots on the money line.”
NE 13, LAR 3 — Patriots beat the Rams 13-3 in Super Bowl LIII; the moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Give me a Cooks, Brandin Cooks, under 75.5 yards.”
Brandin Cooks had 8 catches for 120 receiving yards in Super Bowl LIII, well over the 75.5 line, so the under busts (ESPN box score). (Brandin Cooks: 8 rec, 120 receiving yards)
“It's actually my next pick is Michelle over 17 and a half carries.”
Sony Michel carried the ball 18 times in Super Bowl LIII, clearing the 17.5-carry line (ESPN box score). (Sony Michel: 18 carries)
“Rams money line plus 120”
NE 13, LAR 3 — Rams lost to the Patriots 3-13 in Super Bowl LIII; the Rams moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“First round pick, Patriots, money line. [15:51] Bet it, cash it, game over. [15:53] Patriots aren't losing this game.”
NE 13, LAR 3 — Patriots beat the Rams 13-3 in Super Bowl LIII; the moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“My next pick is going to be Todd Gurley II under 123.5 rushing and receiving yards.”
Todd Gurley totaled 34 yards from scrimmage in Super Bowl LIII (35 rushing, -1 receiving), well under the 123.5 line (ESPN box score). (Todd Gurley: 35 rushing yards, -1 receiving yards (34 total))
“It is both teams to make a field goal of 33 yards or more.”
Both kickers made a field goal of 33+ yards in Super Bowl LIII: Stephen Gostkowski hit 42- and 41-yard field goals for the Patriots, and Greg Zuerlein hit a 53-yarder for the Rams (ESPN box score). (Gostkowski FG: 42, 41 yds; Zuerlein FG: 53 yds)
“But I'm going to go with Stephen Gostkowski. [16:51] The opening, his first kickoff is going to be a plus. [16:55] It's a plus 180. [16:56] That will be a touchback. [16:57] I'm going with yes.”
The Patriots received the opening kickoff of Super Bowl LIII (Cordarrelle Patterson returned it), meaning the Rams' Greg Zuerlein, not Stephen Gostkowski, kicked off first, so Gostkowski never had an opening-kickoff touchback chance (ESPN/Wikipedia game recap).
“I have Sony Michel over 72.5 rushing yards.”
Sony Michel rushed for 94 yards in Super Bowl LIII, clearing the 72.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Sony Michel: 94 rushing yards)
“so I'm taking Robert Woods over 69.5 yards.”
Robert Woods caught 5 passes for 70 receiving yards in Super Bowl LIII, clearing the 69.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Robert Woods: 5 rec, 70 receiving yards)
“New England and I will say this if you're going to take the Patriots like I have don't fuck around with the point spread Lay the little bit of juice. What is it? Minus 135, 140. Because the Patriots do tend to play close Super Bowls, right? They tend to be involved in close games. You're stepping on my comeback. Don't. Shut the fuck up. Don't lay the points. Just go on the money line. Be confident in the win.”
NE 13, LAR 3 — Patriots beat the Rams 13-3 in Super Bowl LIII; the moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“No, I might actually go the Rams on the money line.”
NE 13, LAR 3 — Rams lost to the Patriots 3-13 in Super Bowl LIII; the Rams moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“The Saints are now three-point favorites. Uh-huh. And that's when I bet them.”
LAR 26-23 — Rams beat Saints 26-23 in OT in the NFC Championship; New Orleans' -3 margin exactly matches the -3 spread, a push (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Chiefs at minus three plus 100 on Sunday night. I got a really good number.”
NE 37-31 — Patriots beat Chiefs 37-31 in OT in the AFC Championship; Kansas City lost by 6, outside the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“And so I asked Bob Scucci again on the favorites on Wednesday. I'm like, where's the floor? He said 54 and a half. As soon as it got to 54 and a half, I bet it. It's now back up to 55, 55 and a half. I bet the over.”
NE 37-31 — Patriots beat Chiefs 37-31 in OT in the AFC Championship; the combined 68 points clears the 54.5 total (ESPN box score).
“I've been on the Saints all year.”
The Saints lost the NFC Championship to the Rams 26-23 in OT and did not reach Super Bowl LIII, so the future loses (ESPN box score).
“Most passing yards this weekend. Patrick Mahomes, plus 185. 185, Tom Brady plus 200, Drew Brees plus 225, or Jared Goff plus 285? I'm going with Jared Goff for the value.”
Across the conference championship weekend, Tom Brady threw for the most passing yards (348) beating New England's Patrick Mahomes (295), while Jared Goff had 297 and Drew Brees 249; Goff was not the yardage leader, so the +285 prop loses (ESPN box scores). (Brady 348, Goff 297, Mahomes 295, Brees 249)
“So I want the Kansas City Chiefs, but I want them at two and a half because I know it's going there and you're hesitating, and I feel it's unfair to take them at three when I know it's going to be at two and a half.”
NE 37-31 — Patriots beat Chiefs 37-31 in OT in the AFC Championship; Kansas City lost by 6, outside the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“show let get a couple uh a couple other things looking at kind of just some other props around around football and one baseball one We get to a second All right Exact matchup for the Superbowl There's obviously four matchups. The one I like the best guys, and I can read them off. New Orleans, Kansas city plus one 65, new England, new Orleans, two 60 LA, Kansas city plus three 25 and new England and Los Angeles. Plus four. So I like Kansas city and the Rams at plus three 25.”
Super Bowl LIII was Patriots vs Rams (Patriots won 13-3); the Chiefs were eliminated by the Patriots in the AFC Championship, so the Chiefs+Rams exact-matchup future loses (ESPN box scores).
“show let get a couple uh a couple other things looking at kind of just some other props around around football and one baseball one We get to a second All right Exact matchup for the Superbowl There's obviously four matchups. The one I like the best guys, and I can read them off. New Orleans, Kansas city plus one 65, new England, new Orleans, two 60 LA, Kansas city plus three 25 and new England and Los Angeles. Plus four. So I like Kansas city and the Rams at plus three 25. Obviously, one home team, one road team win this weekend. Plus, I have future bets on myself for New England and the Chiefs to win. New England and the Saints to win their conferences, so I can obviously hedge this here. But I like the Rams and the Chiefs for this bet. What do you guys like? Yeah, I'm on the chalk here, Shorty. I got the Chiefs and the Saints. I think they're the two best teams. I think they've been the two best teams all year. I think that's what we're looking at. Kansas City, New Orleans.”
Super Bowl LIII was Patriots vs Rams (Patriots won 13-3); neither the Chiefs nor the Saints reached the Super Bowl, so the Chiefs+Saints exact-matchup future loses (ESPN box scores).
“show let get a couple uh a couple other things looking at kind of just some other props around around football and one baseball one We get to a second All right Exact matchup for the Superbowl There's obviously four matchups. The one I like the best guys, and I can read them off. New Orleans, Kansas city plus one 65, new England, new Orleans, two 60 LA, Kansas city plus three 25 and new England and Los Angeles. Plus four. So I like Kansas city and the Rams at plus three 25. Obviously, one home team, one road team win this weekend. Plus, I have future bets on myself for New England and the Chiefs to win. New England and the Saints to win their conferences, so I can obviously hedge this here. But I like the Rams and the Chiefs for this bet. What do you guys like? Yeah, I'm on the chalk here, Shorty. I got the Chiefs and the Saints. I think they're the two best teams. I think they've been the two best teams all year. I think that's what we're looking at. Kansas City, New Orleans. I'd love to see that matchup in that dome in Atlanta for the Super Bowl. Paulie? Yeah, I'm going to have to go chalk, too. I did all take that bet last week, and I thought, you know what? I think this is the play, Kansas City, in New Orleans,”
Super Bowl LIII was Patriots vs Rams (Patriots won 13-3); neither the Chiefs nor the Saints reached the Super Bowl, so the Chiefs+Saints exact-matchup future loses (ESPN box scores).
“Wentz is minus 500 I would have taken Wentz no matter what happened this week no matter what happened in the Super Bowl they got there Wentz is the better player He younger He the franchise future Wentz will start week one for the Eagles no doubt about it”
Carson Wentz started at quarterback in the Eagles' 2019 Week 1 win over Washington, 32-27, so the -500 bet on him starting Week 1 wins (ESPN box score).
“Kansas City's the play here. [9:05] Lay the five and a half.”
KC 31-13 — Chiefs beat Colts 31-13 in the Divisional Round; Kansas City's 18-point margin clears the -5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I would like to bet you in this game You want to bet straight up Just head to head Yeah because I have decided I like the Colts at five and a half All right You want to bet a hundred bucks on it Sure Let do it All right”
KC 31-13 — Chiefs beat Colts 31-13 in the Divisional Round; Indianapolis lost by 18, well outside the +5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I bet Dallas at the seven. [13:16] I took the seven. [13:17] I don't love it. [13:18] I don't feel great about it, but I think Dallas is the right side.”
LAR 30-22 — Rams beat Cowboys 30-22 in the Divisional Round; Dallas lost by 8, outside the +7 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'm on the Eagles. [28:04] To be fair, I took the Eagles when it opened to plus 10. [28:07] 10 is too many points to give Big Dick Nick.”
NO 20-14 — Saints beat Eagles 20-14 in the Divisional Round; Philadelphia lost by only 6, covering the +10 spread (ESPN box score).
“Philadelphia at New Orleans, Saints by eight. You go first. I think the Saints are going to kill him. I'm on the Eagles. To be fair, I took the Eagles when it opened to plus 10. 10 is too many points to give Big Dick Nick. I'm looking at this like a couple things here. Number one, don't forget, as we all know, I bet the Saints 18 to 1 to win the Super Bowl way back in the summer. So I do have a couple strategies here. Like if this game – I could start betting the Eagles on the money line now because I might start hedging. Wait until it starts. Well, then I was going to wait until like the Saints are up 7-0 and it's plus 500. And I'll put like less money down on the Eagles to win it all. And I will win more money than if the Saints win the Super Bowl. So I am going to live bet the Eagles at plus whatever when they're losing so I can hedge. I think the Bears exposed so many things In the Eagles defense In their loss In their loss And also exposed what they didn't do That the Saints will do There's two things One, Mitch Trubisky threw over the top of that defense And exposed those defensive backs And Drew Brees, newsflash Better than Mitch Trubisky, right? So all the things that Mitch Trubisky did really well Did really well But he hasn't been throwing the ball downfield a lot Did really well Drew Brees will have the chance to do with a much, much better receiving core. Number one. Number two, what the Bears didn't do that they should have done that would have won them the game is get the ball to Tariq Cohn. He was their best playmaker. Get him in space. Get him on the edge. Those defensive backs would have had no chance against him. Drew Brees is going to get the ball to Alvin Kamara. This Saints team is just going to be much better. Much, much better offensively than the Eagles. Bears also would have won if they got a stop on fourth down. True. Greatest defense ever to step foot on a football field. That's true. Couldn't get a fourth down stop. I agree. Here's my problem. Everything you... That is right in terms of the Eagles defense, that secondary, a mess. I mean, who the hell even knows who they trot out week to week in the secondary anymore? It's disastrous. Better receivers, better playmakers, better quarterback. I don't know, man. I don't know. I have an apprehension. Neither was your take on the Patriots. It was? No, it wasn't. No, it wasn't. I think the number is too short for a team at home that has been to the Super Bowl many years and has proven it can compete. That doesn't matter this year. And has proven it can compete. Not the same team, sugar. I'm giving up the benefit of the doubt. It ain't the same team. Well, part of it is the same team. Okay. It's still not the same team. I'm betting the number. That's the point. Oh, you're betting the number. So telling me I don't know is not anything. I'm afraid of standing in front of Big Dick Nick. That's what I'm afraid of. I'm afraid to get in front of that train. All right? I don't know what it is, Chad, but the Eagles put him under center, and shit just works. It just does. I don't know, man. Yeah, I think the Saints win the game. Do I think they roll them? No. I don't know, man. Also, people are listening to this podcast to make decisions. I'm talking. Your reasoning is, I don't know. Big Dick Nick. I can't get in front of that tree. I can't because sometimes in sports, Chad, these things just happen. Okay? Sometimes you just get a feeling about something. Like last week when I told you the Bears kicking game sucked and they were going to leave points on the field. I told you that. Remember? No. Yeah. Well, I did. Go back and listen to it. I don't know. I have a problem laying over a touchdown with Nick Foles there. that team is markedly better with him it's inexplicable also the Eagles have this weird fucking thing where you remember last year in the playoffs they were wearing the dog masks the fact that they were an underdog at home as the one seed motivated that team you don't think they're going to be motivated by the fact that the Saints just fucking curb stomped them earlier this year that they not going to go in there and at least make this a game Sean Payton this week Yeah I know The trophy the money the ring Wheeled in the Lombardi Trophy. I read ESPN too. On top of a stack of $225,000 in cash. Said, you want this? Go win three fucking games. It's $200,000 in cash. $225,000. It was $225,000. They get $2,01 if they win the whole thing. Didn't read the story closely enough. $225. I'm going to slap you. $50? What's the number we're betting on here? Eight? Yeah. Yeah, fine. Let's do it.”
NO 20-14 — Saints beat Eagles 20-14 in the Divisional Round; New Orleans won by only 6, short of the -8 spread (ESPN box score).
“Chicago White Sox over 74 and a half wins. I don't hate that. Shine John Jay. Friends with? Manny Machado. Signed Yonder Alonzo. Brother-in-law of Manny Machado. One of two teams rumored to be in the Manny Machado sweepstakes. Yeah, I like they're over even without Machado. I'm hedging. I'm hedging. I'm betting. I'm betting. I'm betting on the White Sox. I'm betting.”
The White Sox finished the 2019 regular season 72-89, under the 74.5 win total (ESPN MLB standings).
“Chicago White Sox over 74 and a half wins.”
The White Sox finished the 2019 regular season 72-89, under the 74.5 win total (ESPN MLB standings).
“So I'm going with the Patriots at minus four.”
NE 41-28 — New England Patriots beat Los Angeles Chargers 41-28 in the AFC Divisional Round, a margin of +13, covering the -4 spread (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to I'm going to I like the Cowboys. [43:09] I think seven points is a lot against the Rams. [43:12] I think the Cowboys defense are stepping up. [43:15] They're going to shut the Rams offense down.”
LAR 30-22 — Los Angeles Rams beat Dallas Cowboys 30-22 in the NFC Divisional Round, a margin of -8, missing the +7 spread (ESPN box score).
“Clemson. I got them at plus six.”
CLEM 44-16 — Clemson beat Alabama 44-16 in the CFP National Championship, a margin of +28, covering the +6 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'll go one step further, Jeff. I don't think there is a gap in talent between these two teams. I'm taking Clemson on the money line here. I like them to win this football game. I think we've seen Alabama in situations this year be pushed a little bit, especially against Georgia in the second half against Oklahoma. Clemson is not scared of this team, Jeff. There's no intimidation when Clemson goes on the field against Alabama. They've played them before. They've beaten them before. Clemson, with Trevor Lawrence out there healthy, has just as good a weapons offensively as Alabama does. They've got great experience on that team. Their line play is solid. They're stout on both lines. I like Clemson. At plus 176 right now, I'm going to take a shot at Clemson to win this thing.”
CLEM 44-16 — Clemson beat Alabama 44-16 outright in the CFP National Championship, so the Clemson moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“um i was there are two lines that surprised me this is one of them uh i bet dallas already plus seven i i i i i can't believe this line is what it is um the rams have been bullied when they”
LAR 30-22 — Los Angeles Rams beat Dallas Cowboys 30-22 in the NFC Divisional Round, a margin of -8, missing the +7 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'm all over the Chargers here. I bet this as soon as this line came out, a plus four and a half”
NE 41-28 — New England Patriots beat Los Angeles Chargers 41-28 in the AFC Divisional Round, a margin of -13, missing the +4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“The bet I like, the one I've made so far, Saints over 29.5 points.”
New Orleans Saints beat Philadelphia Eagles 20-14 in the NFC Divisional Round; the Saints scored 20 points, under the 29.5 team total (ESPN box score). (Saints 20 points)
“This was the first game I bet because I caught it at 10 when it opened at 10. I took silly plus 10. I think the Eagles, you know, there's something else about this Eagles team, Jeff.”
NO 20-14 — New Orleans Saints beat Philadelphia Eagles 20-14 in the NFC Divisional Round, a margin of -6, covering the +10 spread (ESPN box score).
“Dallas minus one against Seattle.”
DAL 24-22 — Dallas Cowboys beat Seattle Seahawks 24-22 in the NFC Wild Card game, a margin of +2, covering the -1 spread (ESPN box score).
“Houston minus one against Indy.”
IND 21-7 — Indianapolis Colts beat Houston Texans 21-7 in the AFC Wild Card game; Texans lost outright, so -1 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“L.A. Chargers at the Baltimore Ravens. Los Angeles charges. Don't do that. Don't do that. The Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore minus 2.5. The total is 41. The Chargers are plus 120 on the money line. If we were in the super contest right now, you know what I would say? Pass. Oh, God. Oh, God. Yeah. I mean, probably. But I actually, I like the Chargers here on the money line. And I'm going to go one more. I also like the over. This total is stupid. Stupidly low. Stupid total. You can convince me on the over.”
LAC 23-17 — Los Angeles Chargers beat Baltimore Ravens 23-17, a combined 40 points, under the 41 total (ESPN box score).
“Over Texans Colts 47.5.”
IND 21-7 — Indianapolis Colts beat Houston Texans 21-7, a combined 28 points, under the 47.5 total (ESPN box score).
“Philadelphia Eagles at the Chicago Bears. My Chicago Bears. Oh, I guess I know where you're going on that one, then. Chicago Bears are six-point favorites. First game, I bet. Really five and a half. First game I bet. This total is 41. Philadelphia is basically plus 200 on the money line. If it's the first game you bet, here's where I think you're going. I think you bet the Bears minus 5.5. Nope. Other side. I think you bet the Eagles plus 5.5. You got it.”
PHI 16-15 — Philadelphia Eagles beat Chicago Bears 16-15 (Cody Parkey's missed field goal), a margin of +1, covering the +5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“at Los Angeles Chargers Chargers by 4.5. Bingo! Make it rain. Let's do it.”
BAL 22, LAC 10 — Ravens beat Chargers 22-10; Los Angeles -4.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“Our games this week are New Orleans minus six, hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers. Chicago on the road at San Francisco. We have Buffalo plus 13 against the Patriots.”
NE 24, BUF 12 — Patriots beat Bills 24-12; Buffalo +13 covers (ESPN box score).
“Chicago at San Francisco. Bears by four. Chicago. Bears. I think the Bears too”
SF 9, CHI 14 — Bears beat 49ers 14-9; Chicago -4 covers (ESPN box score).
“Pittsburgh at New Orleans, Saints by six. I'm going to give you a little guess. What's the gift? Because I don't have a feel for this. Saints. I'm not going to argue with you. Love the Saints. I love the Saints all year long. Love the Saints.”
NO 31, PIT 28 — Saints beat Steelers 31-28; New Orleans -6 busts (ESPN box score).
“Houston at Philadelphia. Eagles by two and a half. I'm struggling with this one. All, like, every wise guy has bet the Eagles. Yeah. When I did the podcast with Scooch on Wednesday, the favorites podcast, we talked about the Eagles. And he's like, yeah, I'm taking the Eagles. I think he took the Eagles and Scooch roulette. You know what worries me here? I like the Eagles, too. But why the hell should they be favored in this game? I don't get it. Because of the last week. Yeah, but, I mean, that just, everything you've seen for 15 weeks tells you Houston is the better football team. I like them with Foles. I think that for whatever reason, their offense is better with Foles, at least right now. But am I going to lay points with them against a Texans team that really is motoring down the stretch here? Really good. They don't need to do anything on defense to bring pressure other than get the four guys at the defensive line. Do we take the points? This feels like, yeah, Darren's shaking his head. I like Houston.”
PHI 32, HOU 30 — Eagles beat Texans 32-30; Houston +2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I've already bet the Seahawks on the money line to win this game.”
SEA 38, KC 31 — Seahawks beat Chiefs 38-31; Seattle moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“And you want the Chiefs minus two and a half. [28:26] And the Chiefs minus two and a half.”
SEA 38, KC 31 — Seahawks beat Chiefs 38-31; Kansas City -2.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“I've done the Packers as three-point favorites against the Jets, taking the Packers.”
NYJ 38, GB 44 — Packers beat Jets 44-38 in OT; Green Bay -3 covers (ESPN box score).
“I am also taking the Patriots. [26:55] Minus 13.”
NE 24, BUF 12 — Patriots beat Bills 24-12; New England -13 busts (ESPN box score).
“Nine is ridiculous or eight and a half, whatever we're doing. But at eight and a half and nine, the longest favorite since we will have the article on the Action Network, I'm going to take the Browns.”
CLE 26, CIN 18 — Browns beat Bengals 26-18; Cleveland -8.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“Seattle plus 115 boom look at book it done yeah you like that too right I love it yeah I mean”
SEA 38, KC 31 — Seahawks beat Chiefs 38-31; Seattle moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“I like the Saints. [40:48] I'm going to take them on the spread, not the money line, just because why not get the points for some scooch roulette? [40:52] I'll bet them on the money line for real money, but in scooch roulette, I want the cushion.”
NO 31, PIT 28 — Saints beat Steelers 31-28; New Orleans moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“But I do think those sharp guys are right on the Eagles. [40:29] And I know you like the Texans, but I think the Eagles with that only laying one and a half, the way they're playing, that's the one I'd go with.”
PHI 32, HOU 30 — Eagles beat Texans 32-30; Philadelphia -1.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“lots of games this week there's lots of games that look great but i'll tell you the one well no no they don't play this week it's the Panthers and Falcons interesting all right let's go to Saturday night this is going to be a big game but I think the Titans are going to win this game as 10 point favorites against Washington look Washington was a great story last week all right they go to Jacksonville Jacksonville is a not a good football team right now in in in uh with Cody Kessler leading them they're just not a good team they've given up already Washington goes in there. Teams, we often see this. They get like a little boost at times with a backup quarterback playing his first game, right? The defense doesn't have film on him, especially a mobile quarterback in Josh Johnson. There's no chance that they go in to Tennessee this week with the way the Titans are playing defensively and win this game. Even if the Titans play ugly on offense, which they do at times, their defense is really good under Mike Vrabel, and I'm going with the Titans here on Saturday night. I hope we don't lose this parlay by Saturday night.”
TEN 25, WSH 16 — Titans beat Washington 25-16; Tennessee moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Are you ready? Paul, you're up. College football. The Army Black Knights. I told you this last week. Major Applewhite fires his defensive coordinator, first of all, after they lost to Memphis, which is a similar, well, not similar running style. But now they've got a new defensive coordinator that has to prepare for the triple option. they're according to colin wilson 77th in the nation against the stuff in in stuff rate which would be used in um but with ed oliver not on the field they were gave up almost close to 45 points with him not on the field with him on the field the yards per carry go down almost three yards he is not playing is going to get ready for the draft this line also um has gone from 67 to 60 because i just think that army is just going to possess the ball plus houston's i'm starting a freshman quarterback they lost their quarterback i know he's got a couple weeks to prepare and got a little bit better but i just think army is going to run all day and all night all over houston I like this pick and I'll add one more thing in there as well. You mentioned Houston's had a quarterback change and they're not going to have the ball enough in my opinion to score enough points and we know that when you play a team like Army points are at a premium. I mean Army is 10-2 they're good for a reason. They score points they hold the ball. They hold the ball against Oklahoma for 45 minutes of that game I think they're going to win this game and they're going to win this game big and they're only a three and a half point favorite so so they're you know their their money lines minus 170 it's good value for the parlay”
ARMY 70, HOU 14 — Army beat Houston 70-14 in the 2018 Armed Forces Bowl; Army moneyline covers (Wikipedia, citing official bowl result).
“You know what I do know? I know I'm making a pick. And I know I'm choosing Indianapolis to win. To win. Okay? To win. Against the New York Giants. Oh, at home, yeah. Oh, yeah. I'm seeing minus 440. There's not much to add to this.”
IND 28, NYG 27 — Colts beat Giants 28-27; Indianapolis moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Baltimore's going to go in there, and they're going to play that defense, the Chargers' defense, and they're going to get stuffed the entire game. They don't have any chance, in my opinion. The Chargers have the ninth defense, DVOA, heading into, you know, coming out of last week, I should say. they're not going to put up enough points in my opinion and the Chargers with Gordon back they're reported he'll be back this week Keenan Allen's fine Mike Williams Antonio Gates for some reason can keep doing it I like the Chargers big in this game I just don't buy the Ravens at all with that offense going on the road across country first great defense they played don't buy it at all I think Phillip Rivers”
BAL 22, LAC 10 — Ravens beat Chargers 22-10; Los Angeles moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Okay. We'll just get it out of the way. Just to ching it, New England. We're on the Chargers. Look, I freaking love the Chargers. Yeah, I love the Chargers too. So it's my pick now, right? Yeah, I know. Yeah, I just – I didn't know what you picked. Yeah, just ring the bell and move on, right? Yeah, ring it. Move on, New England. New England, move on. 13 points against Buffalo. Let's just move on. Honest to God, I don't know why that wasn't the first pick. Yeah, I mean, it was going to be one of our picks, right? At some point, yeah. I was just waiting to see what kind of happened. I think it was always in our back pocket. Someone's got to pick that game. It's like a suicide pool, only we could use them every week to try to win money. By the way, I looked at the odds. I looked at the money line number. I think they were a minus 1,100. That's going to kill our parlay. We got to win, though, right? You just got to win, man. No, I'm sorry. Minus 1,300. They're minus 1,300 at William Hill, minus 800 at five dimes.”
NE 24, BUF 12 — Patriots beat Bills 24-12; New England moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Speaking of winning You guys ready? Los Angeles Rams On the road At the Arizona Cardinals Yeah They're gonna be at minus 1,000 too They're 14, right? I told you guys a long time ago I'm an Arizona Cardinal fan And you guys didn't believe me They're the worst team in football They are Minus 1,600 god they're so bad minus 1600 okay but i will say we running out of gimme yeah i i have a i have a couple options here for my last pick Do you guys want to add underdog into this equation for this weekend”
ARI 9, LAR 31 — Rams beat Cardinals 31-9; Los Angeles moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“I think the crowd noise, everything kind of just [29:07] gets under Chiefs' skin. [29:08] I think Seattle wins this game outright.”
SEA 38, KC 31 — Seahawks beat Chiefs 38-31; Seattle moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Pauly, what do you got? I don't even know where to go. Tough. There a good college game I think that pretty See I like Northwestern though but that later Look at Friday at 4 p Paul Friday at 4 p.m.? Yeah. That is Purdue at... Oh, no, I'm backwards. Toledo at FIU? No, BYU-Western Machine. Oh, yeah. Yeah, it's BYU. not to make your third pick for you yeah I mean like um they're minus 12 BYU Western Michigan I want to say that Colin when I was looking at Colin he got his really high confidence index yeah he did he has 1 through 39 you got to go to the action website Colin Wilson does his 1 through 39 confidence picks um and he has them high on the confidence BYU he actually has them slated as I think it's 39th I think his most confident pick 33 out of 39 33 I'm sorry yeah so minus 12 just to win the game so now our parlay is probably down to maybe breaking even for the year if we hit this one 30 cents we'll win 30 cents on this parlay team's favorite by 10 or more 10 or more points in bowl games have won 73% of the time since 2005. Yeah. Or would you rather have a bowl? It's probably too bold to pick. I don't know. Fascinating radio. Well, my thing is I just think the Bears are just a better team, but I know you've got to go to San Francisco, but the San Francisco Chargers just have the Seattle Seahawks number. They've outscored. They've outgained them over 1,000 yards in the last two games they've played them. So to me, I just think that ends. Chad, how do you feel about the Bears going to San Francisco? You're the Bears fan. I think it's a weird spot. Stay away. Yeah I stay away Three favorites I don know Eddie Jackson is not going to be playing Correct I think he is a galvanizing force for that secondary Coming off of winning the conference, I worry about the letdown spot. What about New Orleans and Pittsburgh? That's a weird line, don't you think so? Yeah. So we're going to BYU? Yeah, we'll go with BYU.”
BYU 49, WMU 18 — BYU beat Western Michigan 49-18 in the 2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl; BYU moneyline covers (Wikipedia, citing official bowl result).
“My chance. I'm going to end this on a winner. Are you ready? Are you ready? Yeah, yes. You're supposed to say, yes, I'm ready. I don't have a high falsetto voice, sorry. Come on, you can be, what are you, front dominant? I am, yes. Oh, yeah, we should share that on air. Last week you mocked me for saying that I'm front dominant, like quad dominant, and then you went to the trainer yesterday and he said the exact same thing about you. So maybe it's the same conversation I have with my wife all the time. She thinks I'm stupid and then someone else tells her the same exact thing I told her and then she still thinks I'm stupid but gives me a little bit of credit. I like your wife. You like her. She puts me in my place quite often. Get her on the podcast. I mean, those 30 lunges you did made your trainer. My legs are a little sore. Oh, I'm sorry. Dallas over Tampa Bay at home. Come on, guys. Come on, boys. I looked at this. You're right on this one. It just worries me because I just don't buy Dallas, but Tampa's not very good. No. Also, it's like they're minus 300, so we get a little bit of value here.”
DAL 27, TB 20 — Cowboys beat Buccaneers 27-20; Dallas moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Cleveland at Denver. Broncos by three. She said Cleveland at Denver. Broncos by three. Cleveland. Cleveland all day. 101,000%. We are so on the Cleveland Browns in this game.”
CLE 17, DEN 16 — Browns beat Broncos 17-16; Cleveland +3 covers (ESPN box score).
“Miami at Minnesota Vikings by seven. She said Miami at Minnesota Vikings by seven. You don't have to shout. Can you hear me? It's like I'm translating the beautiful and talented Georgina and her lovely British lilt into blackjack speak. I hate this game. I hate these teams. I hate this number. I hate everything about this. So we're going to take Miami.”
MIN 41, MIA 17 — Vikings beat Dolphins 41-17; Miami +7 busts (ESPN box score).
“We're taking the Colts. We're taking the Colts. Cleveland plus three against Denver. Miami plus seven against Minnesota. Indy minus three against Dallas. Seattle minus four and a half against San Francisco. So New England Patriots minus two and a half at Pittsburgh.”
IND 23, DAL 0 — Colts beat Cowboys 23-0; Indianapolis -3 covers (ESPN box score).
“Seattle at San Francisco. Seahawks by four and a half. Seahawks, the Seabirds, the. you know, our feathered friends of the ocean They favored by four and a half at San Francisco I will tell you I will tell you Seattle I will tell you The wise guys are all over San Francisco in this game Don't care. Don't care. Don't care. Seattle.”
SF 26, SEA 23 — 49ers beat Seahawks 26-23 in OT; Seattle -4.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“New England at Pittsburgh. Patriots by two and a half. She just said the Patriots by two and a half in Pittsburgh. New England. No no no no no New England I will not do it New England I will not do it You listen to me You listen to me No you listen to me No, no. I'm going to give you a quote from Bob Scucci that I'm looking at right now on my phone. Quote, I'd hate to be going against Bill Belichick this week after he gave one away like last week. Keep that in mind. End quote. The New England Patriots are the bet from here until they either get eliminated or win the damn Super Bowl. Bet New England.”
PIT 17, NE 10 — Steelers beat Patriots 17-10; New England -2.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“give me the colts give me the colts minus three”
IND 23, DAL 0 — Indianapolis Colts beat Dallas Cowboys 23-0, covering the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, so we're going money. I'm taking the Chiefs on the money line Thursday night. They are, this will be the 10th win in a row against the Chargers. Thursday night football, home team is 10-2 so far this year. The Chiefs just own the Chargers. It's not like, and here's the thing about the ownage deal. It's not that they're lucky they're winning these. They are blowing out the Chargers when they play them. Every time the Chargers come to Kansas City, even last year, ooh, the Chargers have won seven in a row, come to Kansas City, Chiefs are struggling, the Chargers are going to win the AFC West now, and they lose by 17 points. The Chargers are nuts. I'm not going to win this football game. I know the Chiefs are a little beat up, which worries me a tiny bit. Spencer Ware might be out, Tyreek Hill, who knows. But you went to Pat Mahomes yesterday. That was the toughest game the Chiefs have had all year, and they still found a way to win that game. That's a game, by the way, they lose the first five years Andy Reid is there. I've watched enough Chiefs football to know that game. They lost to the Titans two years ago. We lost to the Colts in 2013 in that type of game, and the Chiefs won that game. So I think it's minus 165 right now. I'll take the Chiefs on the money line Thursday night.”
LAC 29, KC 28 — Los Angeles Chargers beat Kansas City Chiefs 29-28 on Thursday Night Football; Chiefs moneyline busted (ESPN box score).
“okay my choice okay so we're going money line thing with these money lines we'll go with the Ravens on the money line I was talking to Chad off before we started the podcast And to me, that felt like the most playoff game that we've seen this whole year. Hard hitting. Everything was contested. The Baltimore Ravens defense contested everything that Mahomes threw at him. And listen, it took a miracle. It took him rolling to the right, throwing all the way back to his left, and Tyreek Hill adjusting to that ball for them to win that game. And Lamar Jackson made a mistake at the end of the game, and then the missed field goal, and then it went into overtime, all that. But Baltimore, the way they're running the ball, they're running the ball 66% of the time right now. And they going to be able to control the football If you look at Jameis Winston and the way Tampa Bay he was already he was yelling at multiple people on the sideline yesterday because one guy missed the snapper was in the wrong motion, and it was his fault after a pick. I just think this is an easy money line. Plus, Baltimore needs to win this game. I get it was a tough loss, but they should have won that game against Kansas City. They played their hearts out. Yeah, here's another thing that's pretty remarkable. The Ravens have this new offense with Lamar Jackson. An offense that's unsustainable in the future. It's just sustainable now as kind of a gimmicky offense. I'll tell you why it's unsustainable. They've now played the last four weeks. They've played the Bengals, in no particular order. Bengals, Falcons, Raiders, Chiefs. Those run defenses, 28, 29, 31, and 32. Now they've played Tampa, the 30th ranked rushing defense. They got 198 rushing yards yesterday. They had 200 each the previous three games. So I'm with you, Paul. I think the Ravens run the football again very well. And their defense, we saw what their defense did yesterday to the Chiefs. They were able to pressure Mahomes, give him looks he had not seen before. And they did play well. Look, the Chiefs were averaging 36.5 points per game and only scored 27. So I think the Ravens do win this game. They're favored by 8.5. So it tells you that Vegas obviously thinks they should win this game. I'm good with you here. let me just point something out Vegas doesn't think they're going to win this game Vegas thinks the people think the Ravens are going to win this game and they can take advantage of that it's called ownage what what alright let's do the Ravens what's their no the money line is not on the app yeah Yeah, yeah. Maybe their ownage just to cover. It's a lot of points this late in the year. Oh, I think it's at minus 370.”
BAL 20, TB 12 — Baltimore Ravens beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-12; Ravens moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“We have the Chicago Bears to beat the Green Bay Packers.”
CHI 24, GB 17 — Chicago Bears beat Green Bay Packers 24-17; Bears moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“I'm going Indy Dallas under 47.”
IND 23, DAL 0 — Indianapolis Colts beat Dallas Cowboys 23-0; combined 23 points, under 47 won (ESPN box score).
“And again, another line that's like 7, we'll take App State on the money line.”
Appalachian State 45, Middle Tennessee 13 — Appalachian State beat Middle Tennessee 45-13 in the 2018 New Orleans Bowl on Dec 15, 2018; App State moneyline won (Wikipedia summary of the game).
“We are including the University of Michigan in our nine-team Moneyline Parlay.”
MICH 70, WMU 62 — Michigan beat Western Michigan 70-62 on Dec 15, 2018; Michigan moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“Give me Fresno State and the Moneyline in the Vegas Bowl this weekend.”
Fresno State 31, Arizona State 20 — Fresno State beat Arizona State 31-20 in the 2018 Las Vegas Bowl on Dec 15, 2018; Fresno State moneyline won (Wikipedia summary of the game).
“Now, have the Philadelphia Eagles quit? [35:06] I think they lose this game because their season's over and because the Rams are done. [35:09] Their season's over, they're done. [35:11] And Carson Wentz is getting tired of getting hit. [35:13] So choose the Rams. [35:15] I did.”
PHI 30, LAR 23 — Philadelphia Eagles beat Los Angeles Rams 30-23; Rams moneyline busted (ESPN box score).
“It is a tough one. Like, do I do Seattle? Do I do Jacksonville? You know what the crazy part is? We're picking these on the money line and it's still tough. Yes, Jacksonville. But it is Jacksonville. I agree. It's 100% Jacksonville. It has to be right. This Redskins team. Wow. Mark Sanchez.”
WAS 16, JAX 13 — Washington Redskins beat Jacksonville Jaguars 16-13; Jaguars moneyline busted (ESPN box score).
“That is our nine parlay choices Are you ready Here we go We have Kansas City on the money line against the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday night We have the Baltimore Ravens on the money line to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We have the Chicago Bears to beat the Green Bay Packers. Jeff with a wild card taking the under 47 in the Colts-Cowboys game. We have App State. I don't even know who they're playing. Who is MTSU? Middle Tennessee State. This weekend, Paul chose them to win on the Moneyline. Chad chose Michigan basketball to beat Western Michigan on the Moneyline on Saturday, 2 o'clock at Chrysler Arena. Jeff has Fresno State because they care more about the bowl than Arizona State in Las Vegas. Paulie chose the Rams over the Eagles. Again, Moneyline. Chad Millman from the Action Network chose the Jacksonville Jaguars to beat the Washington Redskins on the Moneyline. Reminder, we are going for the Moneyline picks because we haven't won anything all year playing against the spread. I'm making this a parlay right now.”
Parlay busts: Chargers beat Chiefs 29-28 (Chiefs ML lost); Ravens beat Buccaneers 20-12 (won); Bears beat Packers 24-17 (won); Colts beat Cowboys 23-0, under 47 hit (won); Appalachian State beat Middle Tennessee 45-13 (won); Michigan beat Western Michigan 70-62 (won); Fresno State beat Arizona State 31-20 (won); Eagles beat Rams 30-23 (Rams ML lost); Redskins beat Jaguars 16-13 (Jaguars ML lost) — three losing legs sink the 9-team parlay.
“Carolina at Cleveland, Panthers by two and a half. Give it to me, baby. Come on, come on. I know we're going to agree on this one. Give it to me. I love the Browns. Yeah, me too. You do? I'm going to go one step further, Chad I don't think Ron Rivera makes it back from Cleveland Well, now you're just being an idiot The Panthers are done Done I was big on this team a month ago Since then, they have come out In four consecutive weeks And laid four eggs One bigger than the next This team is donezo They're not making the playoffs They're finished Matt Ford, our producer who's got like literally three Carolina Panthers futures bets at all different numbers is probably going to cash one, maybe one, maybe none of them. The Panthers stink, and the Browns at home, they're a different team. They're a different team in Cleveland. I like the Browns here catching the two and a half.”
CLE 26, CAR 20 — Cleveland Browns beat Carolina Panthers 26-20 outright, covering the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“bye week they're three and one they've been scoring points i was very impressed with the Bears win because I thought when that game went to overtime that team was cooked I mean that was a monumental collapse to get into overtime when you up 10 with a minute 58 to go And still they rallied to win the game I think this is a win for the Giants, and I don't really mind laying the three and a half. Okay.”
NYG 40, WAS 16 — New York Giants beat Washington Redskins 40-16, covering the -3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“But you're going to give me two and a half? [24:35] All day long, Arizona.”
DET 17, ARI 3 — Detroit Lions beat Arizona Cardinals 17-3; Cardinals lost by 14, busting the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Take the Patriots. [28:58] It's seven and a half. [28:59] They're going to kill the Dolphins.”
MIA 34, NE 33 — Miami Dolphins beat New England Patriots 34-33 on a last-play lateral touchdown (the 'Miami Miracle'); Patriots lost outright, busting the -7.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I like the Bears here at home plus the three.”
CHI 15, LAR 6 — Chicago Bears beat Los Angeles Rams 15-6 outright, covering the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Most of that money was at plus eight and a half, a little bit at plus eight. and then the public, like you said, everyone else is going to be on the Saints on this one. This is a big number to lay on the road. We've talked about the Saints all year on laying these big numbers on the road. They've been getting there quite a bit with the exception of last week in Dallas, but this is another real big number to lay against a team that can put up a lot of points. So I think the Buccaneers is probably the more value at plus eight here. I'm going to stick to my principles this week, and I'm going to pick the Buccaneers.”
NO 28, TB 14 — New Orleans Saints beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28-14; Buccaneers lost by 14, busting the +8 spread (ESPN box score).
“Pittsburgh, 11 points on the road at Oakland. You have to take the Raiders. Double-digit dog at home. I think we'll get some pretty good surprising two-way action on this one. And the fact that the Steelers came up short against the Chargers when everybody was trying to get out on the late game Sunday night, they got burned by the Steelers. So now to lay double digits on the road, even against a really, really bad team, at least it'll slow the public down just a little bit. Just enough so that this won't be the monster game that it normally would have been. So that kind of saved us a little bit. But at 11, I think the sharp guys will come in on it, and I think this number comes down a little bit. I'm going to hit Oakland. Yeah.”
OAK 24, PIT 21 — Oakland Raiders beat Pittsburgh Steelers 24-21 outright, easily covering the +11 spread (ESPN box score).
“I would take the Raiders plus the 11.”
OAK 24, PIT 21 — Oakland Raiders beat Pittsburgh Steelers 24-21 outright, easily covering the +11 spread (ESPN box score).
“Tennessee Titans plus four. [48:45] I mean minus four.”
TEN 30, JAX 9 — Tennessee Titans beat Jacksonville Jaguars 30-9, covering the -4 spread (ESPN box score).
“Tennessee Titans plus four. I mean minus four. I do like the Panthers too but not at minus two and a half maybe no I'm just kidding I'll take a little side action with you on the Panthers and the Browns I'll take the Browns in that game okay Browns win that game Browns win that game Browns win that game and on the next episode”
CLE 26, CAR 20 — Cleveland Browns beat Carolina Panthers 26-20, so the Browns-to-win side bet won (ESPN box score).
“So, give me Baltimore [6:48] plus seven.”
KC 27, BAL 24 — Chiefs beat Ravens 27-24 in overtime; Baltimore lost by only 3, covering the +7 line.
“let's go to Arizona Cardinals plus two and a half at home against the Lions.”
DET 17, ARI 3 — Lions beat Cardinals 17-3; Arizona lost by 14, outside the +2.5 line, so Cardinals +2.5 busts.
“I like the Browns here to win this game outright, and you give me a point, I'll take it.”
CLE 26, CAR 20 — Browns beat Panthers 26-20 outright, covering the +1 line easily.
“Okay. Well, I'm just going to go with the principal. You just can't lay too many points. I mean, the Buffalo Bills being a nine-point favorite is just too much for me. So I'll play the Jets in somewhat of a revenge game, I guess, considering the Jets got beat by the Bills 41-10 all the time they played. So I'll take the nine points in Buffalo.”
NYJ 27, BUF 23 — Jets beat Bills 27-23 outright, covering the +9 line easily.
“So I like the Colts to plus the four and a half points.”
IND 24, HOU 21 — Colts beat Texans 24-21 outright, covering the +4.5 line.
“have our nine picks let's recap all nine of them i took baltimore plus seven against the chiefs i took arizona plus two and a half uh at home against the lines this weekend and i ended with cleveland plus one against the Panthers That is in Cleveland as well Paula Duca Buffalo plus nine Got a great number against the Jets. You better hop on that now, people, before that changes. They're at home against the New York Jets. Second pick took the Colts plus four and a half at the Texas. The Colts, obviously, losers. Six to nothing yesterday. Remarkable. Getting some points here like this play. And ends with the Bears at home. Big game, Bears, Rams, Bears, plus three and a half.”
CHI 15, LAR 6 — Bears beat Rams 15-6 at home, winning by 9, covering the +3.5 line.
“I'm taking the Knights on the road Saturday, 4 p.m. Eastern, Golden Knights. [10:10] Moneyline.”
LA 5, VGK 1 — Kings beat Golden Knights 5-1, so the Vegas Golden Knights moneyline loses.
“I don't care that they struggle in Miami. You know what I do care about? That everyone listening to this has already gone and bet Miami plus nine, and the number's now down to eight. All right? Give me the Patriots. I'm laying the eight points. They are the only certainty in the NFL. Week in, week out, they not only win games,”
MIA 34, NE 33 — Dolphins beat Patriots 34-33 on the walk-off Miami Miracle lateral play; New England lost outright, outside the -8 line, so Patriots -8 busts.
“love the Jets take [27:10] them on the money line Blackjack says so I'm taking the Jets on the money line”
WPG 7, PHI 1 — Jets beat Flyers 7-1, so the Winnipeg Jets moneyline wins.
“Indianapolis at Jacksonville. Colts by four. Colts. The Jags are donezo. Cody Kessler is starting at quarterback. The Colts are hot. Colts, lay the points. This is a double-digit win.”
JAX 6, IND 0 — Jaguars shut out the Colts 6-0; Indianapolis lost outright, well outside the -4 line, so Colts -4 busts.
“Alright so our games Colts minus 4 on the road That's a fucking error That's the best game we've got Chad The Jaguars quit Denver minus 4.5 on the road”
DEN 24, CIN 10 — Broncos beat Bengals 24-10, winning by 14, covering the -4.5 line.
“Alright so our games Colts minus 4 on the road That's a fucking error That's the best game we've got Chad The Jaguars quit Denver minus 4.5 on the road Jeff Driscoll The Rams the Lions plus nine and a half at home. That's a good one. That's the right side.”
LAR 30, DET 16 — Rams beat Lions 30-16; Detroit lost by 14, outside the +9.5 line, so Lions +9.5 busts.
“Alright so our games Colts minus 4 on the road That's a fucking error That's the best game we've got Chad The Jaguars quit Denver minus 4.5 on the road Jeff Driscoll The Rams the Lions plus nine and a half at home. That's a good one. That's the right side. The Chiefs minus 14 and a half”
KC 40, OAK 33 — Chiefs beat Raiders 40-33, winning by only 7, short of the -14.5 line, so Chiefs -14.5 busts.
“I can't wait to take more of your money. the Vikings plus five. Those are our games, right? Yeah. Five games.”
NE 24, MIN 10 — Patriots beat Vikings 24-10; Minnesota lost by 14, outside the +5 line, so Vikings +5 busts.
“I think the Colts are so hot right now. [26:39] It's a division game. [26:40] I took their money line minus 212.”
JAX 6, IND 0 — Jaguars shut out the Colts 6-0, so the Indianapolis Colts moneyline loses.
“I'm going to take the Detroit Rock City Lions [49:23] plus 10 [49:24] against the Los Angeles Rams”
LAR 30, DET 16 — Rams beat Lions 30-16; Detroit lost by 14, well outside the +10 line, so Lions +10 busts.
“I take the Vikings. [48:55] Vikings. [48:55] Wow. [48:57] Good job. [48:57] Well done. [48:58] Plus five.”
NE 24, MIN 10 — Patriots beat Vikings 24-10; Minnesota lost by 14, outside the +5 line, so Vikings +5 busts.
“So give me Texas plus seven and a half against Oklahoma this weekend. [11:18] I'll give you all the reasons why.”
OKLA 39, TEX 27 — Oklahoma beat Texas 39-27 in the Big 12 Championship; Texas margin -12 fails the +7.5 line (ESPN final).
“All right So we in I guess Falcons plus two and a half All right I take No we got three We got Falcons plus three Plus three Okay Plus three Sorry Home dog”
BAL 26, ATL 16 — Ravens beat Falcons 26-16; Atlanta margin -10 fails the +3 line (ESPN final).
“Let's go, Georgia, at plus 13 and a half right now.”
ALA 35, UGA 28 — Alabama beat Georgia 35-28 in the SEC Championship; Georgia margin -7 covers the +13.5 line (ESPN final).
“So I'm going with [27:06] the Bucs here at [27:08] plus four. Tampa Bay”
TB 24, CAR 17 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 24-17; Tampa Bay margin +7 covers the +4 line (ESPN final).
“I love Utah in this game so you can go ahead and cha it Plus four and a half right now”
WASH 10, UTAH 3 — Washington beat Utah 10-3 in the Pac-12 Championship; Utah margin -7 fails the +4.5 line (ESPN final).
“I am going to go with the Minnesota Vikings plus seven against the New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon.”
NE 24, MIN 10 — Patriots beat Vikings 24-10; Minnesota margin -14 fails the +7 line (ESPN final).
“So give me Buffalo here at minus three and a half.”
NIU 30, BUFF 29 — Northern Illinois beat Buffalo 30-29 in the MAC Championship; Buffalo margin -1 fails the -3.5 line (ESPN final).
“Let's do Kansas City money line.”
KC 40, OAK 33 — Chiefs beat Raiders 40-33; moneyline on Kansas City covers (ESPN final).
“Give me Memphis plus three-and-a-half.”
UCF 56, MEM 41 — UCF beat Memphis 56-41 in the AAC Championship; Memphis margin -15 fails the +3.5 line (ESPN final).
“I'm back in sync. Tell me what you got. I don't like it, but I have to take Atlanta. Ah, you mother. You have to. It's 13 and a half points. I know. you leave me literally with nothing.”
NO 31, ATL 17 — Saints beat Falcons 31-17 on Thanksgiving; Atlanta margin -14 fails the +13.5 line (ESPN final).
“I'm going to take the Steelers. [52:29] Yeah? [52:30] Yeah. [52:32] Minus three.”
DEN 24, PIT 17 — Broncos beat Steelers 24-17; Pittsburgh margin -7 fails the -3 line (ESPN final).
“Cowboys by seven. Love it. What do you love about this? Which side? The Redskins. Give me the Redskins and the points.”
DAL 31, WSH 23 — Cowboys beat Redskins 31-23 on Thanksgiving; Washington margin -8 fails the +7 line (ESPN final).
“I bet this line as soon as I saw it. [9:37] I love the Saints. [9:38] You and I both have futures on them. [9:40] Everyone knows that. [9:41] but you can't lay 13 in a divisional game with an offense as dangerous as the Falcons. [9:46] I like the Falcons.”
NO 31, ATL 17 — Saints beat Falcons 31-17 on Thanksgiving; Atlanta margin -14 fails the +13 line (ESPN final).
“All right, here's what we got. Washington Redskins plus 7 against the Dallas Cowboys. Atlanta Falcons plus 13 against the New Orleans Saints. Jacksonville Jaguars minus three at Buffalo. That's three so far.”
BUF 24, JAX 21 — Bills beat Jaguars 24-21; Jacksonville margin -3 fails the -3 line (needed to win by more than 3) (ESPN final).
“New England at New York Jets. Patriots by nine and a half. There it is. You want to bet a good team? New England. Lay it. Done.”
NE 27, NYJ 13 — Patriots beat Jets 27-13; New England margin +14 covers the -9.5 line (ESPN final).
“All right, here's what we got. Washington Redskins plus 7 against the Dallas Cowboys. Atlanta Falcons plus 13 against the New Orleans Saints. Jacksonville Jaguars minus three at Buffalo. That's three so far. New England Patriots minus nine and a half at the New Yorker. The Pittsburgh Steelers minus three at the Denver Broncos.”
DEN 24, PIT 17 — Broncos beat Steelers 24-17; Pittsburgh margin -7 fails the -3 line (ESPN final).
“getting ready for the game tonight in the Coliseum, Chiefs and Rams. I personally love the Chiefs at plus three here. It is not that I'm a Chiefs homer. My brother plays for the Chiefs. I'll throw that out there. I think the Rams' defense is not very good. Well, I know they're not very good. They're allowing 27 points a game over their last seven games. But really, the stat that is important to us on this show, Gambling Show, we know this. Good teams win, great teams cover. The Rams are a great team. They're 1-5-1 against the spread their last seven games. I get the Chiefs tonight with all these points. He's going to be scoring this game and plus the three. I love this play”
LAR 54, KC 51 — Rams beat Chiefs 54-51; Chiefs margin -3 exactly matches the +3 line, a push (ESPN box score).
“And I'm going to take Kansas City on the money line [3:46] At plus 150 at a lot of books [3:48] I like the Chiefs outright in this game”
LAR 54, KC 51 — Chiefs lost to the Rams 51-54; moneyline on Kansas City busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm going with the Washington State Cougars minus 3.5 against the Washington Huskies.”
WASH 28, WSU 15 — Washington beat Washington State 28-15 in the Apple Cup; WSU margin -13 fails the -3.5 line (ESPN final).
“Atlanta plus 13 in New Orleans. [14:33] That line is, oh boy, it's crazy.”
NO 31, ATL 17 — Saints beat Falcons 31-17 on Thanksgiving; Atlanta margin -14 fails the +13 line (ESPN final).
“I'm going to go here with the Oklahoma Sooners plus one in Morgantown, I guess West Virginia.”
OKLA 59, WVU 56 — Oklahoma beat West Virginia 59-56; Sooners margin +3 covers the +1 line (ESPN final).
“Matthew Stafford plus three and a half the Detroit Lions at home against the Bears”
CHI 23, DET 16 — Bears beat Lions 23-16 on Thanksgiving; Detroit margin -7 fails the +3.5 line (ESPN final).
“I have Oklahoma plus one against West Virginia I think they win that game outright Paulie you have Detroit Lions Thursday Plus three and a half You have Michigan Minus four In the big house Against Ohio State I think they finally get this win.”
OSU 62, MICH 39 — Ohio State routed Michigan 62-39; Wolverines margin -23 fails the -4 line (ESPN final).
“Memphis is minus seven and a half at Houston, and I'll book it for you. Whoa, whoa, whoa. Let me bet this right now. Come on. Seriously, you're only a favorite by seven and a half? Paulie, I don't know if you should be booking bets on the air. No, I'm saying book it. Can I get a ka-ching? It's my turn. Thank you. And I'm with Jeff on this. I was waiting for the line to get up. You know, SMU and Memphis somewhat played the same kind of game, and they played a nip-and-tuck battle game, which a lot of people thought was going to be high scoring. I think they were over that game. It was like 70-something. It ended up being like 28. It was a low scoring game, 28-16 or so. But SMU put up over 570-something yards on offense on Houston. Memphis can run all day. Houston cannot stop the run. And the best part about this is Houston just blasted a Tulane team, so it will look even better. And so they hang up the dreaded 7.5 line that you don't want to punch. And I'm with Jeff here. I was going to play. This is going to be one of my picks. I think Memphis is the real deal.”
MEM 52, HOU 31 — Memphis beat Houston 52-31; Tigers margin +21 covers the -7.5 line (ESPN final).
“All right, for my first pick, I'm going to stick with Thanksgiving football. I'm going to look at the Redskins and the Cowboys. Cowboys are seven-and-a-half-point favorites here. I'm taking the Redskins. This is overvaluing the Cowboys.”
DAL 31, WSH 23 — Cowboys beat Redskins 31-23 on Thanksgiving; Washington margin -8 fails the +7.5 line (ESPN final).
“Yeah, brother, I'm sticking with college football. I'm going to Saturday afternoon, obviously rivalry weekend in college football. We've got a lot of in-state games going on, and I'm going to take a look at the Tar Heel State. We've got NC State visiting UNC. I am taking the Wolfpack, minus six, against the Tar Heels. I think this number should be bigger, man.”
NCST 34, UNC 28 — NC State beat North Carolina 34-28 in overtime; Wolfpack margin +6 exactly matches the -6 line, a push (ESPN final).
“The Bills hosting the Jaguars taking the Jaguars minus three and a half”
BUF 24, JAX 21 — Bills beat Jaguars 24-21; Jacksonville margin -3 fails the -3.5 line (ESPN final).
“We got five picks. We made it through that. It got dicey at the end. Are you ready? We got the Jacksonville Jaguars plus five and a half against the Steelers.”
PIT 20, JAX 16 — Pittsburgh beat Jacksonville 20-16; Jaguars lost by only 4, covering the +5.5 line (ESPN box score).
“The fact that this is only three and a half is a gift Lay the three and a half Dallas offense cannot hang with this Atlanta offense”
ATL 19, DAL 22 — Dallas beat Atlanta 22-19; Falcons lost outright as a -3.5 favorite, busting the spread (ESPN box score).
“We have the Los Angeles Chargers. minus seven against the Broncos.”
LAC 22, DEN 23 — Denver beat the LA Chargers 23-22 on a walk-off field goal; Chargers lost outright as a -7 favorite, busting the spread (ESPN box score).
“I absolutely like the Vikings here catching two and a half I would like the Vikings minus two [29:17] and a half, which is realistically what this line should be.”
CHI 25, MIN 20 — Chicago beat Minnesota 25-20; Vikings lost by 5, busting the +2.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, the Chiefs absolutely catching 3.5 here. [34:51] Like, when they moved this game back to L.A. and it was 3.5, you got to take it.”
LAR 54, KC 51 — LA Rams beat Kansas City 54-51 in the Monday-night shootout; Chiefs lost by 3, covering the +3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I'd sprinkle a little something on the Chiefs' money line because that's a little juicy to me.”
LAR 54, KC 51 — LA Rams beat Kansas City 54-51; Chiefs lost outright, busting the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Redskins plus three.”
WSH 21, HOU 23 — Houston beat Washington 23-21; Redskins lost by 2, covering the +3 line (ESPN box score).
“I think I'm going to go with the Falcons. Are you at three or three and a half? I'm at three minus 20. All right. I'm going with the Falcons at minus three.”
ATL 19, DAL 22 — Dallas beat Atlanta 22-19; Falcons lost outright as a -3 favorite, busting the spread (ESPN box score).
“Monday night, Kansas City plus two and a half. Here's why. Obviously, I'm a little bit of a Chiefs homer. That's not going to be the reason why I take this. The reason why I take this is more the Rams defensive suspect. They've allowed 31, 45, and 27 the last three weeks. And the 27 could have been more, if you remember, if Ty Montgomery doesn't fumble on that kickoff to start that two-minute drive. Their defense has not been what we thought. Look, Aaron Donald has been fantastic. He's the winning defensive player of the year. But Dominick Hinsu has not been what we thought. They traded for Dexter Fowler for pass rusher. That has not helped so far. And now Dexter Fowler goes against the best right tackle NFL in my brother. So he's not going to get very much on Monday night. The secondary has been suspect. They've been injured. Marcus Peters has not been a number one now. He's playing the Chiefs now, so maybe he thinks it's a revenge game. But I trust Andy Reid to design a game plan to get after Marcus Peters. He knows him inside and out. He drafted him. He's the one who got rid of him. And I think the Chiefs are going to score so many points in this game. The over might not hit It 63 or 63 and a half I not quite sure But I fairly certain the Chiefs are going to score a lot of points this game On the flip side the Chiefs defense continuing to get better Will they contain the Rams' offense? I don't know. I think they'll do it enough. So I like the 2.5 here.”
LAR 54, KC 51 — LA Rams beat Kansas City 54-51 in the Monday-night shootout; Chiefs lost by 3, busting the +2.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I actually got one for you. Oh, you're asking me for a pick? All right, go ahead, Laduka. You're up next. I guess we're cashing. We're cashing on the Chiefs plus two and a half. Paul Laduka. Navy Midshipmen. Minus five. against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane.”
NAVY 37, TLSA 29 — Navy beat Tulsa 37-29; Midshipmen won by 8, covering the -5 line (ESPN box score).
“I am going to go with the Seattle Super Seahawks. Yep. Minus two and a half over the Green Bay Packers.”
SEA 27, GB 24 — Seattle beat Green Bay 27-24; Seahawks won by 3, covering the -2.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I think Washington here covers the plus three.”
WSH 21, HOU 23 — Houston beat Washington 23-21; Redskins lost by 2, covering the +3 line (ESPN box score).
“Are you ready for my pick? I am so ready for your pick, Leduca. The Atlanta Falcons minus three. because I'm sick and tired of the Marty Coopers and the Fighting Dallas Cowboys. I love this pick. Now, I think Atlanta figured some... But where are you getting minus three? Because I see it at four and a half. On our app right now, it's minus three. We're probably looking at different books. But okay, I'll take minus three. The juice is at 125, though, the minus three.”
ATL 19, DAL 22 — Dallas beat Atlanta 22-19; Falcons lost outright as a -3 favorite, busting the spread (ESPN box score).
“Tennessee Titans plus three on the road at Indianapolis.”
IND 38, TEN 10 — Indianapolis beat Tennessee 38-10; Titans lost by 28, well beyond the +3 line (ESPN box score).
“So I think Cal's the play here at plus two at home.”
STAN 23, CAL 13 — Stanford beat California 23-13 in the Big Game; Cal lost by 10, busting the +2 line (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, Baltimore is a five-and-a-half point favorite. [33:21] Give me them, please.”
BAL 24, CIN 21 — Baltimore beat Cincinnati 24-21; Ravens won by only 3, failing to cover the -5.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Arizona Cardinals minus three and a half against the Oakland Raiders.”
ARI 21, OAK 23 — Oakland beat Arizona 23-21; Cardinals lost outright as a -3.5 favorite, busting the spread (ESPN box score).
“Jacksonville at Indianapolis. Colts by three. Let's do it, baby. Over the Jaguars. Come what may, they make me say Jaguars every week. That's true. It's her best word. I have a love affair with this game. All right. Which side? Jacksonville Jaguars. I'm with you. I'm with you. Yeah, I'm with you. That's it? Yeah, I like Jacksonville on this spot. Love Jacksonville on this spot. Think about this. Two weeks ago, this line would have been flipped. This would have been Jacksonville. Yes. Such an overreaction. It's overreaction Sunday. Yeah, Jaguars. Look, the Jags' defense is still amazing. Yep, still really good. Their pass defense tops in the league in everything. They've had a little bit of time to get Carlos Hyde worked in. They had a bye week. Yeah. Blake Bortles gets a little bit smarter. They're not playing a very good defense. Blake Bortles is not getting smarter. Forget that for a second then. How about this? Leonard Fournette is healthy. You give Leonard Fournette the ball 35 times in this game and don't even think about Blake Bortles. And you give it to Carlos Hyde another 12. Done. That's it. I'm with you. We got one.”
IND 29, JAX 26 — Indianapolis beat Jacksonville 29-26; Jaguars lost by exactly 3, pushing against the +3 line (ESPN box score).
“Arizona and Kansas City Chiefs by Bloody Hell 16 and a Half You want to lay those points? Lay them. I kid. I kid. No, you got to take it. I'm doing everything in my power. You got to take it. We're in agreement. Yeah, you got to take the points. Why do you feel that way? You never feel that way. I'm higher on the Cardinals than most people. You know that. I've taken the Cardinals on the money line a few times this year. I'm higher on Arizona than most people. I like Josh Rosen. I think he'll put some points on the board. And Arizona's defense is playing better than people give it credit for. I think Arizona can keep this within 17”
KC 26, ARI 14 — Kansas City beat Arizona 26-14; Cardinals lost by 12, covering the +16.5 line (ESPN box score).
“We're laying six and a half with the Jets.”
NYJ 10, BUF 41 — Buffalo beat New York 41-10; the Jets lost outright as a -6.5 favorite, busting the spread (ESPN box score).
“Miami at Green Bay. Packers by nine and a half. How about this one? I know. I know. You got that shit-eating grin on your face right now. I mean, you know what I want to do. You want to take Aaron Rodgers, right? Fuck no. At nine and a half? Are you kidding me? Let me tell you something, Chad. You are sitting here and telling me right now that you want to take the Miami Dolphins. And the Brocketship. This? You want to get on that Brocketship. Strap yourself in, brother. And ride it to the moon. I'm going to need a lot of these drinks. Aaron Rodgers is coming off of two losses in a row. That team is battered. They need to get back to the winning ways, and they're going home to Lambeau Field. Not only do you want the Brocketship, you want him on the road going from Miami to Lambeau Field. You are outside of your mind. We're not taking the Brocketship. There's no way. Aaron Rodgers, lay the points. This feels like a no. So we're going to take the Dolphins? Yeah, all right. We are a clown show. Okay. It's too many points. It's way too many points. It's too many points. Are you kidding me? Nine and a half? Yeah, I'm with you. We got three games and lucky us. It's too much. We're on the Dolphins, Cardinals, and Jaguars.”
GB 31, MIA 12 — Green Bay beat Miami 31-12; Dolphins lost by 19, well beyond the +9.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Dallas at Philadelphia. Eagles by six and a half. Philly. Is there any part of you that thinks the Cowboys are the right side here No zero None Anything under seven I would lay The Cowboys There's so many ways. Cowboys are a bad team. The Eagles, Golden Tate, nice addition, have a week to work him into the system. Philadelphia, getting ready to make that push now. Off the Redskins loss last week, the injuries the Redskins have had on the offensive line, that division is still in sight for Philadelphia. I really think Golden Tate's going to be a big difference maker for them. The Cowboys, they're 3-5, man. It's a bad football team. That's a bad team. Flat out. Anything under 7, I'd lay.”
PHI 20, DAL 27 — Dallas beat Philadelphia 27-20; the Eagles lost outright as a -6.5 favorite, busting the spread (ESPN box score).
“Atlanta minus four. Atlanta, massive win against the Redskins on the road. They're back. Matty Ice. Oh, my God. They're so good. They've adjusted. It's amazing. Can you believe what they can do? The Browns can't score. They're in chaos. What are we going to do? They're losers again. They're on the road. They're at home. They're underdogs, whatever. Give me the Cleveland Browns. And you're going to take the Browns? 100%. You probably want to wait. you'll probably get some better numbers later in the week. I want to get the best of the number. I don't want to. Remember, the public is flushed with money right now. So they are going to come in with both fists betting all these favorites this week. And that is probably the most lopsided game on the board. I went to four and a half actually shortly before we started the podcast. So I think we're the only four and a half. I really want to go to five and five and a half because I think the wise guys are probably going to wait until later in the week. So I might as well get people to lay five, five and a half early and then move it down later in the week. Do it. Do it right now? Go on. Bang. Done. Minus five. There we go. We got it.”
CLE 28, ATL 16 — Browns beat Falcons 28-16 outright, covering Browns +5 (ESPN box score).
“Green Bay Packers minus nine and a half at home against the Miami Dolphins. Big number for a struggling team. Yeah. Struggling team with a lot of injuries. Going up against a Dolphins team that has a pretty good defense. The problem is they have no offense. but it's a big number to be given the Dolphins. And the week after the books get beat, you're going to see a lot of inflated lines on a lot of the favorites. It's just kind of a combination of the bookmakers trying to predict where the bettors are going to come in on, and then the bettors not only laying it, but laying more than they would normally lay because they have a little more money to spend. So you're going to see if you're a dog better, this is the week. This is the week for you. That so interesting I want to write that down because you basically just gave us a little hint there Right Yeah. Yep. Okay. I think I know where the value is. Make a note. Make a note of that. I have made a note. I literally opened the notes app in my phone and I wrote that down. Multitasking. Yep. All right. So I'm taking the dolphins.”
GB 31, MIA 12 — Packers beat Dolphins 31-12, a 19-point margin that doesn't cover Dolphins +9.5, so this pick busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm also going to take the Seattle Seahawks as 10-point dogs on the road against the Los Angeles Rams.”
LAR 36, SEA 31 — Rams beat Seahawks 36-31, a 5-point margin that covers Seahawks +10 (ESPN box score).
“i going with the jacksonville jaguars at plus three”
IND 29, JAX 26 — Colts beat Jaguars 29-26, a 3-point margin that exactly matches Jaguars +3, so this pick pushes (ESPN box score).
“i going with the jacksonville jaguars at plus three yeah i don know why Wow I heard some snickering back there What happened? What was that? You didn't hear anything. No? Okay. You didn't hear anything. It's just people like my family that have nothing but the utmost respect for me. Okay. I got you. Who are you taking? I'm going to take the Buccaneers. I want to change my pick to the Buccaneers. I was thinking Northern Florida. I got confused about the logos and stuff. I want the Buccaneers. Oh, okay. No, I want the Jacks. I'll take the Jacks. All right. The Jets? Jags. Jags.”
IND 29, JAX 26 — Colts beat Jaguars 29-26, a 3-point margin that exactly matches Jaguars +3, so this pick pushes (ESPN box score).
“So how about this? Niners favored by three points over the Giants. The Giants are awful. They're awful. The Niners, we saw them against the Raiders. And this is not an overreaction for the Raiders because I think that the Niners offensively are just so far advanced than like 25 teams around the NFL that they can do a lot with a little. And their offensive line is really good. They're running the ball well. Even if Bethard or Mullins plays, I think that their offense will be able to move the ball against the Giants who trade away Harrison. The Giants are just a complete and absolute wreck. The Niners front seven is really good They can get after the quarterback The Giants offensive line is out of 31 points I know it a game that a a long way Mind that football is sweet to wait until the end of the week to win this parlay But I just can see the Giants even come close to this game Traveling across the country like this too, mind that football. Give me the Niners.”
NYG 27, SF 23 — Giants beat 49ers 27-23; 49ers -3 needed to win, so this pick busts (ESPN box score).
“Give me Cal plus five at USC this weekend.”
CAL 15, USC 14 — California beat USC 15-14 outright, covering Cal +5 (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Memphis Tigers minus 14 against Tulsa.”
MEM 47, TULSA 21 — Memphis beat Tulsa 47-21, a 26-point margin that covers Memphis -14 (ESPN box score).
“The Seahawks plus 11 against the Rams.”
LAR 36, SEA 31 — Rams beat Seahawks 36-31, a 5-point margin that covers Seahawks +11 (ESPN box score).
“And I think the 12.5 points is an easy lay here, and I think Arizona State's going to bury them.”
ASU 31, UCLA 28 — Arizona State beat UCLA 31-28, a 3-point margin that doesn't cover Arizona State -12.5, so this pick busts (ESPN box score).
“All right. My next pick is the one I know Black Jacks can hate. Makes it even better. Are you ready for it, Black Jacks? Bengals plus four, huh? No. The Cincinnati Bengals.”
NO 51, CIN 14 — Saints beat Bengals 51-14; Bengals +4 needed to lose by less than 4, so this pick busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to some college football here, Jeff, and I'm telling you what, there's a game here that I love. It's SMU and UConn. UConn is the worst college football team against the spread. You've pointed this out yourself, Jeff. They're an awful team. SMU, on the other hand, just took it to Houston this past Saturday. They're laying 18 at UConn, and I can't lay those 18 quick enough.”
SMU 62, UCONN 50 — SMU beat UConn 62-50, a 12-point margin that doesn't cover SMU -18, so this pick busts (ESPN box score).
“Taking Ohio State minus three and a half.”
OSU 26, MSU 6 — Ohio State beat Michigan State 26-6, a 20-point margin that covers Ohio State -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“All right, Blackjack, last pick you're up, bud. I'm taking Troy over Georgia State in a pick-em. Whoa. All right. Troy is a markedly better offense than Georgia State. Their defense is better than Georgia State. They're better on every side of the ball. The only reason this game is a pick is because it's at Georgia State. I think Troy goes in there, gets the job done, at a pick'em. Troy. I like this pick because you don't even know which Georgia team they're playing, so it's even better because it's Georgia Southern. There you go, Southern. You don't even care. It doesn't matter to you.”
TROY 35, GASO 21 — Troy beat Georgia Southern 35-21 outright, covering the pick'em line (ESPN box score).
“We like the Washington Redskins minus one and a half against the Atlanta Falcons”
ATL 38, WSH 14 — Falcons beat Redskins 38-14; Redskins -1.5 needed to win, so this pick busts (ESPN box score).
“Detroit at Minnesota. Vikings by four and a half. Vikings done. Let's go.”
MIN 24, DET 9 — Vikings beat Lions 24-9, a 15-point margin that covers Vikings -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle. Seahawks by two. This is a really hard game. This is a really, really hard game. Agreed. Agreed. We talk about flexibility, right? Yep. I love the Chargers in this game.”
LAC 25, SEA 17 — Chargers beat Seahawks 25-17 outright, covering Chargers +2 (ESPN box score).
“We like the New Orleans Saints minus one and a half against the Los Angeles Rams”
NO 45, LAR 35 — Saints beat Rams 45-35, a 10-point margin that covers Saints -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“And we like the Tennessee Titans plus six and a half against the Dallas Cowboys.”
TEN 28, DAL 14 — Titans beat Cowboys 28-14 outright, covering Titans +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“i love this next game baltimore ravens minus three at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers Oh my goodness Are the Baltimore Ravens undervalued as the home favorite in this game Give me the Ravens.”
PIT 23, BAL 16 — Steelers beat Ravens 23-16 at home; Ravens -3 needed to win, so this pick busts (ESPN box score).
“alright I'm up alright how about this there's a weird board by the way on a Monday morning let's look at this thing let's go with New Orleans plus one home against the Rams”
NO 45, LAR 35 — Saints beat Rams 45-35; New Orleans' +10 margin covers the +1 line (ESPN box score).
“Tennessee Titans plus six.”
DAL 14, TEN 28 — Titans beat Cowboys 28-14; Tennessee's +14 margin covers the +6 line (ESPN box score).
“Washington Redskins minus one and a half point favorites at home against the Atlanta Falcons. Do you send Alex Smith a holiday card every year? Do I what? Do you send Alex Smith a holiday card every year? I'm going to. how do you not bet the Redskins? Their defense is pretty good, and they just keep winning. Why wouldn't I bet them as a short home favorite against a team that I don't like at all? All Alex Smith does is win football games in the regular season. All Alex Smith does is win football games in the regular season. Atlanta's off the bye week. Yeah, great. Atlanta's now outside, though, in Washington. Their defense, the bye week doesn't help. They have still three defensive starters. Give me an underachieving team going on the road, playing outside when they're built for a fast track against a team with a good defense, a quarterback who doesn't make mistakes, and a team that consistently wins. Yeah, I'll take that as a short home favorite.”
WSH 14, ATL 38 — Falcons beat Redskins 38-14; Washington's -24 margin misses the -1.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Tampa play plus seven against Carolina on the road.”
CAR 42, TB 28 — Panthers beat Buccaneers 42-28; Tampa Bay's -14 margin misses the +7 line (ESPN box score).
“I love the Ravens here, minus three, and a couple reasons why.”
BAL 16, PIT 23 — Steelers beat Ravens 23-16; Baltimore's -7 margin misses the -3 line (ESPN box score).
“LA Chargers plus one at Seattle”
SEA 17, LAC 25 — Chargers beat Seahawks 25-17; Los Angeles' +8 margin covers the +1 line (ESPN box score).
“Friday night, Friday night, packed home after dark. Arizona's four-point favorites over Colorado at home. Give me the Wildcats.”
ARIZ 42, COLO 34 — Arizona beat Colorado 42-34; Arizona's +8 margin covers the -4 line (ESPN box score).
“Penn State plus 10 at Michigan.”
MICH 42, PSU 7 — Michigan beat Penn State 42-7; Penn State's -35 margin misses the +10 line (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Baker Mayfield plus eight against the Kansas City Chiefs at home.”
CLE 21, KC 37 — Chiefs beat Browns 37-21; Cleveland's -16 margin misses the +8 line (ESPN box score).
“Here we go, guys. We've got a parlay. Are you ready? You want to hear it? Yes, maybe. New Orleans Saints plus one against the Los Angeles Rams. Tennessee Titans plus six against Dallas. I love that pick. Washington Redskins minus one versus the Atlanta Falcons. They are in Washington. Tampa Bay plus seven versus the Carolina Panthers. Baltimore minus three against the Steelers. The L.A. Chargers on the road at Seattle. One point dogs. The L.A. Chargers plus one. Arizona Wildcats minus four. Pac-12 after dark Friday night versus the Colorado Buffaloes. Penn State Nittany Lions plus 10 against the anemic offense yet stellar defense of the Michigan Wolverines The Cleveland Browns at home Eight underdogs versus the high-flying Kansas City Chiefs. I don't mean to rub it in, Chad. Yeah. But the Charlotte 49ers beat Southern Miss plus the points, like I told Jeff Schwartz they would. That's our encore. here's what I want people to do are you ready? as everybody knows we're going to put $20 each on this 19 parlay if you do the same you will win $19,000 one time generally $19,000 depending on the juice and whatever”
Parlay busts: Saints +1 won (NO 45, LAR 35); Titans +6 won (TEN 28, DAL 14); Redskins -1 lost (ATL 38, WSH 14); Buccaneers +7 lost (CAR 42, TB 28); Ravens -3 lost (PIT 23, BAL 16); Chargers +1 won (LAC 25, SEA 17); Arizona -4 won (ARIZ 42, COLO 34); Penn State +10 lost (MICH 42, PSU 7); Browns +8 lost (KC 37, CLE 21); with four legs lost the nine-team parlay busts (ESPN box scores).
“Baltimore and Carolina, Ravens by two. This game is stupid. This line makes no sense, Chad. Okay. You have to take Carolina here.”
CAR 36, BAL 21 — Panthers beat Ravens 36-21; Carolina's +15 margin covers the +2 line (ESPN box score).
“Seattle at Detroit. Lions by three. Boom. Boom. Boom. from detroit city baby yep detroit rock city you tell me yours i tell you mine how all right baby um how funny is it the lions have found an identity as like a running team here Like they hadn had a hundred yard rusher since what was it Reggie Bush I think And now they've got Kerryon Johnson and it's added some balance to this team. Kerryon, my wayward side. This is making me feel a lot better about what we're doing later. Kerryon Johnson has added a lot of balance to that team. It's been very impressive. The defense has gotten better week to week under Matt Patricia. There's no reason not to like the Lions here. I actually can't figure out why the line isn't higher. I feel like this is a Russell Wilson off a bye line. That's it. I'm getting a short home favorite and a team that's better. People are just assuming that Russell Wilson is going to backdoor this thing. But the Lions defense is pretty good, man. I think it's going to be tough for them to do. I agree. Love this game. All right. Put it on the board. We got two. We got two.”
DET 14, SEA 28 — Seahawks beat Lions 28-14; Detroit's -14 margin misses the -3 line (ESPN box score).
“Green Bay at Los Angeles Rams Rams by nine and a half Packers so pack all day long all day Aaron”
LAR 29, GB 27 — Rams beat Packers 29-27; Green Bay's -2 margin covers the +9.5 line (ESPN box score).
“New Orleans and Minnesota. Pick'em. I got nothing on this. You know how I feel about the Saints? I got no read on this. This is Vikings all the way. This line is perfect. It's a pick'em.”
MIN 20, NO 30 — Saints beat Vikings 30-20; Minnesota's -10 margin misses the pick'em line (ESPN box score).
“New England at Buffalo. Oh, boy. Patriots by 13 and a half. Chad don't Screw this up. How many times do I have to do this? First of all you sit here and you like to talk about the best of the number this number is 14 everywhere else We get it at 13 and a half, so that's good for us This Patriots team is doing what they do every October. They're rolling, Chad. Cover after cover after cover after cover. They put 30 on the board the last four weeks. They ragdoll the Buffalo Bills when the Bills are having a decent year. The Bills are having an awful season even by their standards. The Patriots are going to win this game 37-7. This is the easiest play on the board. You can't tell me Derek Anderson is hanging in this game, Chad. Okay. I'll tell you what. Tell you what. I'll tell you what. We can do it. But we're kicking one off. Okay. And it's not going to be the Vikings. You want to kick the Redskins? Yeah. All right. We'll take the Vikings and the Patriots. That's what I would choose.”
BUF 6, NE 25 — Patriots beat Bills 25-6; New England's +19 margin covers the -13.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Broncos at Chiefs. I know – I so know what side I'm taking here. You almost have to take the Broncos. Got to. You have to. Absolutely have to, yes. I mean, the – What do you have? What's your number right now? What's your number right now? We're minus 10. Wow, double digits. Minus 10, yeah. Perfect negative 10.”
KC 30, DEN 23 — Chiefs beat Broncos 30-23; Denver's -7 margin covers the +10 line (ESPN box score).
“Seahawks at Lions. This is, boy, this Lions team. Defense is turning it around. Carry on Johnson. Is that his name? Yep. Carry on Johnson. I follow football. He's really good. Giving Matt Stafford some support. Seahawks are basically Russell Wilson. I think, I think, I'm just convincing myself right now to bet the Lions. A very short home favorite. What do you think of that? Yeah, I agree with you, and we've already gotten some pretty sharp money on the Lions as well. So Seahawks still carry a little appeal from the betting public. And the Lions, even though some of the guys like yourself, you know, you sharp guys, pick up on those little things, the public hasn't jumped on them quite yet. So I think three's pretty solid. But the fact that the wise guys already laid three tells me it going to go up but not necessarily just from public money I think the wise guys are on the same side as you on this one Do you think I should bet this Ravens game We're back to the Ravens? Well, I'm allegedly going through the games in my alleged sports book. And it just, you know, I just clicked yes on the Lions. I just clicked yes on the Broncos and passing the Ravens game.”
DET 14, SEA 28 — Seahawks beat Lions 28-14; Detroit's -14 margin misses the -3 line (ESPN box score).
“but we're at the vikings minus one right now i bet the vikings moved it i bet the vikings i i bet”
MIN 20, NO 30 — Saints beat Vikings 30-20; Minnesota's -10 margin misses the -1 line (ESPN box score).
“That's funny. Well I'll tell you what I may I may or may not while you were talking have allegedly bet this next game plus two others. Your attention, please. Chad is making a bet, allegedly. This next game is the Packers at Rams, Packers plus nine, the largest dog that Aaron Rodgers has ever been.”
LAR 29, GB 27 — Rams beat Packers 29-27; Green Bay's -2 margin covers the +9 line (ESPN box score).
“I love this idea I take you one better Detroit is now minus two and a half in some places Oh where that at So what that means is I think it at the Westgate That what I synced up to right now Well, that's what matters. So give me two and a half, even better. Give it to me right now.”
DET 14, SEA 28 — Seahawks beat Lions 28-14; Detroit's -14 margin misses the -2.5 line (ESPN box score).
“The Denver Broncos plus 10”
KC 30, DEN 23 — Chiefs beat Broncos 30-23; Denver's -7 margin covers the +10 line (ESPN box score).
“Parlay, boys. The Los Angeles Rams are nine-point favorites against the Green Bay Packers. This is the largest spread in Aaron Rodgers' career. They opened at 10. It's now nine. The early money has come in on Green Bay. The Millman money is coming in on Green Bay. Don't bring nine points into my house When Aaron Rodgers has the ball I don't care if he's playing on one leg I don't care if his defense can't stop anybody I don't care if you can't name a running back Who's played for Green Bay for the last decade Since before Dorsey Levin's Wow James Starks nice job paul give me your rogers plus nine points you can get it as high as 10 some places and it's on the app”
LAR 29, GB 27 — Rams beat Packers 29-27; Green Bay's -2 margin covers the +9 line (ESPN box score).
“So I give me the Browns plus eight and a half at Pittsburgh right now.”
PIT 33, CLE 18 — Steelers beat Browns 33-18; Cleveland's -15 margin misses the +8.5 line (ESPN box score).
“New Orleans Saints at the Minnesota Vikings under and over is 52 you are not taking the Saints This is under. I'm taking the under.”
MIN 20, NO 30 — Saints beat Vikings 30-20, combined 50 points; the under 52 covers (ESPN box score).
“against the Ravens and you know they only allowed 23 points and one of those was it was a late touchdown I like the Vikings overall in this game It a pick right now but the under seems like a solid play Me too Me too I like the Vikings. I like the under. In fact, in fact, boys, let's double down. Yeah, I like this. Wow. Let's do it. Let's go Minnesota. Vikings in the under.”
MIN 20, NO 30 — Saints beat Vikings 30-20; Minnesota's moneyline bet busts (ESPN box score).
“UCLA plus 10 at home against Utah.”
UCLA 10, UTAH 41 — Utah beat UCLA 41-10; UCLA's -31 margin misses the +10 line (ESPN box score).
“Stanford Cardinal minus 3.5 over the Washington State Cougs”
STAN 38, WSU 41 — Washington State beat Stanford 41-38; Stanford's -3 margin misses the -3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“A nine-team parlay. Nine players. Wow. Well done. Nine-team parlay to win $20,000. Here we go, boys. These are our picks. Are you ready? Are you ready? Yes. Detroit, minus 2.5 against Seattle. Denver plus 10 against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs Green Bay plus 9 against the undefeated Los Angeles Rams Cleveland plus 8.5 against the Pittsburgh Steelers up and by New Orleans and Minnesota two teams that can light it up like no other teams in the NFL under 52 Minnesota at home they're struggling every week And we're taking them against the New Orleans Saints. And we've won five in a row. UCLA, they don't even know who's playing quarterback. But we're taking them at plus 10. Stanford minus three and a half versus Washington State. The New York football Giants. One and five against the first place Washington Redskins at home. We're taking the Giants, even though we've lost every single bet we've placed in the Giants this year.”
Parlay busts: Lions -2.5 lost (SEA 28, DET 14); Broncos +10 won (KC 30, DEN 23); Packers +9 won (LAR 29, GB 27); Browns +8.5 lost (PIT 33, CLE 18); Saints/Vikings under 52 won (NO 30, MIN 20); UCLA +10 lost (Utah 41, UCLA 10); Stanford -3.5 lost (WSU 41, Stanford 38); with four legs already lost the nine-team parlay busts regardless of the two unstated-line legs (ESPN box scores).
“Bears plus three. Here's what we should do. Here's what we should do. I gave you the Browns plus three. You give me the Bears plus three. whoever loses those games has to pay for the movie and popcorn and maybe a soda alright you got a deal Bears plus three put it on the board”
NE 38, CHI 31 — Patriots beat Bears 38-31; Chicago Bears +3 loses by 7, busts (ESPN box score).
“Cleveland at Tampa Bay, Buccaneers by three Cleveland The only side I can be convinced on this is Tampa Bay No, no, stop it No, Tampa Bay, let me lay this out for you Tampa Bay has a defense that can stop nobody Absolutely nobody, okay Jameis Winston, what has been the knock on Jameis Winston Over the course of his career He can be wild he can overthrow He throws interceptions You have a Browns defense that is turning the ball over at an unbelievable rate They get pressure up front and you got Denzel Ward in the secondary who picking everything off And you want to lay points with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. No chance. I do. No chance. All right, I'll give you this one. I'll give it to you. I'll give this to you only so I have material for next week's show. I'm giving it to you. Yes, we'll do it. Let's go with the Browns.”
TB 26, CLE 23 — Buccaneers beat Browns 26-23 in overtime; Cleveland Browns +3 loses by exactly 3, pushes (ESPN box score).
“New Orleans at Baltimore, Ravens by two and a half. We're not going to agree unless you've changed your mind. It's the Ravens. No, it's not. You want to talk about buying teams at the peak of their value. That's what you're doing with the Ravens here. The Ravens go into Tennessee and beat up on the Titans, and now everyone's saying, oh, the Ravens, maybe they're not so bad anymore. Dude, the Saints are off a bye, okay? The Saints' offense is rolling. Mark Ingram's back. They get a bye week to get him back incorporated into this offense. you're telling me you want to lay points against Drew Brees and the Saints off a bye week. Yeah. No. I think I'm actually getting the Ravens at a low point here. A low point? I think we're getting like— What do you think this number should be? Probably Ravens by three. Chad, no. This is asinine. You're being difficult just to be difficult. Even your guy Scooch said this is the week to bet the Saints on the road And isn't he the person that you listen to out in Las Vegas? The guy who has his ear to the ground Even he said bet the Saints I think I might have already bet the Ravens I don care what you already bet You didn bet million on it Yeah I did All right, I'll tell you what. This is a good spot to hedge. Let's go with the Saints.”
NO 24, BAL 23 — Saints beat Ravens 24-23; New Orleans Saints +2.5 wins outright, covers (ESPN box score).
“Dallas at Washington. Washington by two. I like the Redskins. Me too.”
WSH 20, DAL 17 — Redskins beat Cowboys 20-17; Washington Redskins -2 wins by 3, covers (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to take the Chiefs here, right? I guess so. Yes! What do we got right now? So far we have the Browns at plus three. I'm looking at my board here. We have the Saints plus two and a half. The Redskins minus two. The Chiefs minus six. Oh, God, it makes me sick to even say that.”
KC 45, CIN 10 — Chiefs beat Bengals 45-10; Kansas City Chiefs -6 wins by 35, covers (ESPN box score).
“The Ravens, minus two. Great defense. Serviceable offense. At home. Hyped up crowd. Feeling like they are world beaters right now. And I know that's not necessarily a great scenario. But I think this defense is historically good. Yeah, they really are. That's why I said it's where the rubber hits the road here with the best defense. I think the Saints are ranked three on their offense, third in the NFL. So really kind of, to me, the most interesting game on the board. I have four games I'm starting to get really excited about. Five, six. We're going to get to the next two. I'm on Baltimore here, Scooch. I'm going against the Wise Guys.”
NO 24, BAL 23 — Saints beat Ravens 24-23; Baltimore Ravens -2 loses outright by 1, busts (ESPN box score).
“rams what are they at i see nine and a half on the road third week in a row at the niners on a short week after a crushing loss last night that might have been the game That might have been the game for C Beathard I might be getting the best of the number at 9.5 in some places on the Rams. You know I don't want to bet against a home dog at practically double digits, but I think last night's was a crushing loss, and I don't think that the Niners defense plays that well again. yeah that it's really hard to to rebound so quickly after a game that you felt like was yours and and you lost i mean emotionally it's hard to get back up um had it been any any other week other than coming off of that you know crushing loss i'd say you automatically have to take the 10 points and i still think you autoplay you just have to take the yeah you have to take the 10 points but but i agree with you but on the other side we've also said that you know you had to bet seattle at home getting seven points against the rams a couple weeks ago you had to take the broncos against the rams getting seven points last week and so third third week in a row the rams are on the road laying real big numbers they haven't covered once yet and on the road laying those big numbers and this is the biggest number yet so um the professionals will be on on the 49ers you'll see this line come down uh just you know just like you saw the line come down last night the packers were uh were as high as 10 and some places it went down to eight and a half so the sharp guys are a late move on the on the dog the late move is the correct move yes it is i'm gonna I bet the Niners. I changed my mind just while you were talking.”
LAR 39, SF 10 — Rams beat 49ers 39-10; San Francisco 49ers +9.5 loses by 29, busts (ESPN box score).
“So I will take my first pick here, Jets plus three at home against the Vikings.”
MIN 37, NYJ 17 — Vikings beat Jets 37-17; New York Jets +3 loses by 20, busts (ESPN box score).
“getting three and a half points for a cincinnati team i think that's still not getting their due”
TEM 24, CIN 17 — Temple beat Cincinnati 24-17 in overtime; Cincinnati +3.5 loses by 7, busts (ESPN box score).
“Arizona Cardinals plus one and a half [10:17] at home against Denver.”
DEN 45, ARI 10 — Broncos routed Cardinals 45-10; Arizona Cardinals +1.5 loses by 35, busts (ESPN box score).
“All right I don know how you don keep riding Chiefs overs They play the Bengals this weekend it 15 and a half I know it a lot of points again but I don know how we ever bet the under the Chiefs are back at home now It another Sunday football game It just less almost about the Chiefs The Chiefs defense is horrific. They are so bad. They're averaging They're averaging allowing 5.7 yards to carry heading into the game last night. It continues that the Patriots ran all over him What do the Bengals do? They run the football. They have play-action passes I don't see any way this game goes under 58.5. It's a ton of points. I know it is, but I don't know how we don't play Chiefs overs until proven otherwise.”
KC 45, CIN 10 — Chiefs beat Bengals 45-10, a combined 55 points; Over 58.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“Keep riding it Keep riding it until we see it fall off Paul you up Okay I going to go with the Washington Redskins Yes. At home. Yes. At a point and a half against the Dallas Cowboys. I love this pick.”
WSH 20, DAL 17 — Redskins beat Cowboys 20-17; Washington Redskins -1.5 wins by 3, covers (ESPN box score).
“Chicago Bears plus three against the New England Patriots.”
NE 38, CHI 31 — Patriots beat Bears 38-31; Chicago Bears +3 loses by 7, busts (ESPN box score).
“Michigan State plus seven at home against Michigan.”
MICH 21, MSU 7 — Michigan beat Michigan State 21-7; Michigan State +7 loses by 14, busts (ESPN box score).
“I want to choose the Ravens, minus two and a half.”
NO 24, BAL 23 — Saints beat Ravens 24-23; Baltimore Ravens -2.5 loses outright by 1, busts (ESPN box score).
“10 points alright do it let's do it let's do it drop the hammer let's do it San Francisco 49ers plus dead against the Los Angeles Rams. And after they play tonight, you might get like an 11 or 12 somewhere. Yeah. I mean, that's the thing. I mean, it's crazy not to bet a 10-point home underdog, but it's crazy to bet this 10-point home underdog against this team.”
LAR 39, SF 10 — Rams beat 49ers 39-10; San Francisco 49ers +10 loses by 29, busts (ESPN box score).
“We have the New York Jets plus three at home against the Minnesota Vikings. We have the Cincinnati Bearcats plus three and a half. At the Temple Owls, we have the Arizona Cardinals plus one and a half at home against the Denver Broncos. We have the Kansas City Chiefs Cincinnati Bank. Over 58 and a half. We have the Washington Redskins. I love this pick. Minus one and a half against the Dallas Cowboys. We have Chicago Bears. Oh, yeah, baby. Chicago Bears. Buy and low. Plus three against the New England Patriots. We have Michigan State. Also buy and low. Plus seven against the Michigan Wolverines. Philadelphia. No, then we went with Baltimore Ravens. Minus two and a half. Over the Saints. that we have. Here we go. I know you do. I know you do. Then, to wrap it up, San Francisco 49ers plus 10 versus the Los Angeles Rams.”
9-team parlay: Jets +3 lost (Vikings 37-17), Cincinnati +3.5 lost (Temple 24-17 OT), Cardinals +1.5 lost (Broncos 45-10), Chiefs/Bengals Over 58.5 lost (KC 45-10, total 55), Redskins -1.5 won (WSH 20-17), Bears +3 lost (NE 38-31), Michigan State +7 lost (Michigan 21-7), Ravens -2.5 lost (Saints 24-23), 49ers +10 lost (Rams 39-10); one leg wins, parlay busts (ESPN box scores).
“We are at Arizona plus 10 against Minnesota.”
MIN 27, ARI 17 — Vikings beat Cardinals 27-17; Arizona Cardinals +10 loses by exactly 10, pushes (ESPN box score).
“Carolina at Washington, Washington by one. This is a no-brainer. Just get it right. For once in your goddamn life, take off your hat, take off your sunglasses, do something real, and make the right call. Challenging me to do something real is not a road you want to go down, my friend. Trust me. It's not. I'm walking. I'm walking that path. I'm telling you right now, I like this game. the question. I like the Washington Redskins. Me too!”
WSH 23, CAR 17 — Redskins beat Panthers 23-17; Washington Redskins -1 covers by 6 (ESPN box score).
“Los Angeles Rams at Denver. Los Angeles by 6.5. This game is 7. It's 7 everywhere. Yeah, you're right. You're right. I love Denver at 7. This is the Westgate just giving it to us.”
LAR 23, DEN 20 — Rams beat Broncos 23-20; Denver Broncos +7 loses by only 3, covers (ESPN box score).
“i love denver i do too i bet i bet denver at seven”
LAR 23, DEN 20 — Rams beat Broncos 23-20; Denver Broncos +7 loses by only 3, covers (ESPN box score).
“We are the Tennessee Titans, plus 2.5 against the Baltimore Ravens.”
BAL 21, TEN 0 — Ravens shut out Titans 21-0; Tennessee Titans +2.5 loses by 21, busts (ESPN box score).
“You know what that means You know what that means Dropping the mic That your mic drop moment Boom That your mic drop moment I had to have one Take us to the next game Kansas City at New England Patriots by three and a half New England. I'm going to do what you love. I'm going to do what you love. I am going to take the New England Patriots, the home favorite, with a disadvantage line, because I think they're going to kill the Chiefs in this game.”
NE 43, KC 40 — Patriots beat Chiefs 43-40; New England Patriots -3.5 wins by only 3, does not cover, busts (ESPN box score).
“this is a game i bet because i want to get the best of the [11:41] number cincinnati minus two and a half against pittsburgh in cincinnati i bet the bangles a two [11:48] and a half.”
PIT 28, CIN 21 — Steelers beat Bengals 28-21; Cincinnati margin -7 vs -2.5 line busts (ESPN box score).
“Here's a game I did bet. [14:40] You ready? [14:41] Yep. [14:42] And I bet it New England minus three. [14:46] before it moved to three and a half.”
NE 43, KC 40 — Patriots beat Chiefs 43-40, winning by exactly 3; New England margin +3 vs -3 line pushes (ESPN box score).
“coming in on the Chargers here we're at minus one now it's kind of the line that can go to two two and a half without a whole lot of money on it so we're probably going to move this pretty aggressively. And I agree with you. If you had to put a gun to my head, pick a side. I going with the Chargers in this one I so tempted to play it right now so I can get the best of the number”
CLE 14, LAC 38 — Chargers beat Browns 38-14; Los Angeles margin +24 vs -1 line covers (ESPN box score).
“Washington minus one over Carolina. Oh, boy. Oh, boy. Yeah. Oh, boy. Oh, gosh. Scooch. Scooch. Scooch. Scooch. Yeah. I might have to take the Redskins you have to you have to I mean they're not even laying a field goal at home they're laying one coming off the loss but they're at home the Panthers just struggled against the Giants now the Panthers are on the road you just have to lay the Redskins if you have any principles whatsoever you've got to just lay the one not look back. Yeah, but here's the thing. I have principles and I just bet against them because I bet the Chargers. I'm allegedly making a bet. Yeah, you did the opposite. Just so everybody in the room knows. Your attention, please. Chad is making a bet. Allegedly. Oh, my God. Yeah, love it. I got to. Yeah. You know? So the public is going to be all over the Panthers in this one. Probably at about five to one clip or ratio. And I haven't seen any sharp money on this one yet. I don't think they know what to do with this one yet either. Really? No, not a whole lot of movement. Well, I just bet it.”
WSH 23, CAR 17 — Washington beat Carolina 23-17; Washington margin +6 vs -1 line covers (ESPN box score).
“What if allegedly I would have bet the Denver Broncos at plus seven against the Los Angeles Rams?”
DEN 20, LAR 23 — Rams beat Broncos 23-20; Denver margin -3 vs +7 line covers (ESPN box score).
“I love the Patriots. Oh, no. Oh, no, you didn't. Oh, no, you didn't. Was I not supposed to go first? damn you Bob yeah three and a half probably not the best number to lay but I don't think it'll matter this is so far the most important game for the Patriots this year and they want to make a statement”
NE 43, KC 40 — Patriots beat Chiefs 43-40, winning by only 3; New England margin +3 vs -3.5 line busts (ESPN box score).
“and that's the New England Patriots minus three against the other Schwartz's Chiefs.”
NE 43, KC 40 — Patriots beat Chiefs 43-40 on a walk-off field goal, winning by exactly 3; New England margin +3 vs -3 line pushes (ESPN box score).
“give me Oakland plus three at home against the Seahawks”
OAK 3, SEA 27 — Seahawks beat Raiders 27-3 in London; Oakland margin -24 vs +3 line busts (ESPN box score).
“Off a bye week, USC Trojans. [26:17] Minus seven against the Colorado Buffaloes. [26:20] Book it.”
USC 31, COLO 20 — USC beat Colorado 31-20; USC margin +11 vs -7 line covers (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Washington Redskins minus two at home against the Carolina Panthers.”
WSH 23, CAR 17 — Washington beat Carolina 23-17; Washington margin +6 vs -2 line covers (ESPN box score).
“I get three and a half points for the Oregon Ducks, a team off a bye,”
ORE 30, WASH 27 — Oregon beat Washington 30-27 in overtime; Oregon margin +3 vs +3.5 line covers (won outright) (ESPN box score).
“I love this Bill's defense. I mean, look. Very good. Josh Allen, there's like... How's McDermott doing it? He's not very good. Yes, just say it. There's a masquerade going on. Josh Allen is awful. Jeff, how many yards did he throw for last week? 82. On Sunday. 82 yards on Sunday. He's 9 for 18 for 82. I will give you this. He has a knack to use his feet here and there We give you that That doesn make you a good quarterback Everyone always like oh his feet Oh my No I not saying the guy a good quarterback I saying he can save eight and a half points I'm just talking about, no, I think that's great for covering a game.”
HOU 20, BUF 13 — Texans beat Bills 20-13; Buffalo margin -7 vs +8.5 line covers (ESPN box score).
“I like the Tennessee Titans, plus two and a half.”
BAL 21, TEN 0 — Ravens shut out Titans 21-0; Tennessee margin -21 vs +2.5 line busts (ESPN box score).
“Tennessee Buffalo Titans by three and a half. Give me the Buffalo Bills.”
BUF 13, TEN 12 — Bills beat Titans 13-12 on a walk-off field goal; Buffalo margin +1 vs +3.5 line covers (ESPN box score).
“Denver at New York. Jets by one. So everything I said about principles. Broncos. Yeah, I can't bet the Jets. Broncos. There it is. All right. I jumped on this bad boy, and I think, two when it opened. The fact that the New York Jets are favored against the Broncos that did what they did against Kansas City is fucking ridiculous My brain is in a pretzel right now How are the Jets still riding high on that Lions game”
NYJ 34, DEN 16 — Jets beat Broncos 34-16; Denver margin -18 vs +2 line busts (ESPN box score).
“Los Angeles Rams at Seattle. Rams by seven. Seahawks. No brainer. Here we go.”
SEA 31, LAR 33 — Rams beat Seahawks 33-31; Seattle margin -2 vs +7 line covers (ESPN box score).
“Arizona at San Francisco, 49ers by four.”
SF 18, ARI 28 — Cardinals beat 49ers 28-18; Arizona margin +10 vs +4 line covers (ESPN box score).
“This is Jacksonville or Cleveland? Are Jacksonville plus three or Cleveland plus three? Just think about that for one second, what you just said. this is Jacksonville plus three or Cleveland plus three. Now in your brain, I know because I'm looking at you, something goes off in your head and you know it's happening right now, but you don't want to admit it. There's something happening that's telling you this is ridiculous. I can't take Cleveland over Jacksonville. It is hard to say. Yes, I want the Browns against the Ravens instead of the Jaguars. Yep. As you pour yourself another. You know what? It's terrible, but it's in front of me. Fine. I'm doing this against all of my principles. Do you want the Browns that bad? Look, I just feel like I'm getting a home underdog. Oh, we're talking about feel? You scream at me for that every week. Tell me, do you honestly believe the Browns have a better chance of covering than Jacksonville? I do Fine, then let's take them Cleveland, fuck it, Cleveland”
CLE 12, BAL 9 — Browns beat Ravens 12-9 in overtime on a walk-off field goal; Cleveland margin +3 vs +3 line covers (Browns won outright) (ESPN box score).
“Arizona at San Francisco, 49ers by four. I have to tell you, this is my favorite game of the week. Me too. The Arizona Cardinals. Boom. I have bet them on the money line.”
SF 18, ARI 28 — Cardinals beat 49ers 28-18 outright; Arizona moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Bills plus three and a half.”
BUF 13, TEN 12 — Bills beat Titans 13-12 on a walk-off field goal; Buffalo margin +1 vs +3.5 line covers (ESPN box score).
“The Rams and the Seahawks. The Rams opened at 7.5. Full disclosure, I bet it at 7.5. I might have accidentally bet it twice. What did you take? You took the plus 7.5? I took the plus 7.5.”
SEA 31, LAR 33 — Rams beat Seahawks 33-31; Seattle margin -2 vs +7.5 line covers (ESPN box score).
“So if that's the case, then I'm going to go ahead and take Buffalo. Plus three and a half against Tennessee.”
BUF 13, TEN 12 — Bills beat Titans 13-12 on a walk-off field goal; Buffalo margin +1 vs +3.5 line covers (ESPN box score).
“I think the Panthers win this game fairly easily they're at six and a half right now I like the Panthers”
33-31 — Panthers beat the Giants 33-31 on a 63-yard field goal (ESPN); the 2-point margin falls short of covering -6.5.
“Kentucky, on the road at A&M, it opened at 6.5, and now at plus 6. Kentucky's 5-0, folks. Like, they're playing really good football, and they're playing really good defense. They beat South Carolina, who's, you know, whatever. Mississippi State, who we thought was going to be really good. They gave it to Florida earlier in the year. I think that this team can play some ball, and defense, remember, travels very well. So Kentucky right now defensively is 14th in yards per play They playing an A team that sloppy under Jimbo Fisher first head coach there Their yards per play on defense is 112th so Kentucky will be able to move the ball on them and I think they'll be able to stop them. I get almost a touchdown here with a 5-0 football team on the road against a new program in Jimbo Fisher. I like Kentucky here.”
20-14 — Texas A&M beat Kentucky 20-14 in overtime (ESPN); the exact 6-point margin pushes against +6.
“So the two options for this play, and I can make statements, either one, for this. Arizona, where did it go? Arizona at San Francisco, they opened up at plus five. It's now down to plus four and a half. Weird number there. Or Jacksonville plus three at Kansas City. Now, we know that line could move after Kansas City plays tonight. And that game is at Kansas City. Which one of those two do you feel more comfortable about? Because I kind of like both equally. Pauly? Well, I think a lot of people are going to be on Arizona just because of the Phil Dawson Blues, like I said. Well, I think they're – And C.J. Beathard sort of imploded in the second half of that. Well, he's not very good. He had a good start. Yeah, he had a good start, and then they put the clamps on him in the second half. Cardinals usually play they kind of win a game I guess they don't have to win this game for us to win the bet though if you play Jacksonville now I mean Kansas City plays tonight what is the Jacksonville line? 3? plus 3 yeah this is a no brainer it's Jacksonville plus 3 right? no it's Arizona well I bet Arizona already so I feel better now that we agreed on that”
28-18 — Cardinals beat the 49ers 28-18 (ESPN); the 10-point road win covers +4.5.
“I like Illinois. They're laying two and a half at Rutgers.”
38-17 — Illinois beat Rutgers 38-17 (ESPN); the 21-point win covers -2.5.
“I'll take Andrew Luck in the 10 points.”
38-24 — Patriots beat the Colts 38-24 on Thursday Night Football (ESPN); the 14-point loss busts the +10 spread.
“I'm going with the Houston Texans. minus three”
19-16 — Texans beat the Cowboys 19-16 in overtime (ESPN); the exact 3-point margin pushes against -3.
“I am going to go with the Washington Redskins as seven-point underdogs next week.”
43-19 — Saints beat the Redskins 43-19 (ESPN); the 24-point loss busts the +7 spread.
“I would like to choose the Atlanta Falcons as four-point underdogs.”
41-17 — Steelers beat the Falcons 41-17 (ESPN); the 24-point loss busts the +4 spread.
“Seattle plus seven and a half at home against the Los Angeles Rams.”
33-31 — Rams beat the Seahawks 33-31 (ESPN); Seattle's 2-point loss covers the +7.5 spread.
“We got the Denver Broncos plus five [37:18] against the Kansas City Chiefs.”
27-23 — Chiefs beat the Broncos 27-23 (ESPN); Denver's 4-point loss covers the +5 spread.
“We got the [37:21] New York Giants plus [37:23] three and a half against the New Orleans [37:25] Saints.”
33-18 — Saints beat the Giants 33-18 (ESPN); New York's 15-point loss busts the +3.5 spread.
“We have the [37:27] Indianapolis Colts, minus [37:29] one against the Houston Texans.”
37-34 — Texans beat the Colts 37-34 in overtime (ESPN); Indianapolis lost outright, busting the -1 spread.
“We have the [37:33] New England Patriots, minus six and a half [37:35] against the Miami Dolphins,”
38-7 — Patriots routed the Dolphins 38-7 (ESPN); the 31-point win covers -6.5.
“and we have [37:37] the Cincinnati Bengals, plus five.”
37-36 — Bengals beat the Falcons 37-36 on a late touchdown (ESPN); Cincinnati's outright win covers +5.
“Cleveland at Oakland Oakland by two and a half Baker Mayfield He sounds ever so British Pick him Blackjack You fucking pick Baker Mayfield on this Blackjack and our relationship is over. You don't really pay a lot of attention to what goes on at your own company, do you? Did you already pick them? I released a goddamn video in front of a green screen yesterday afternoon taking them on the money line.”
45-42 — Raiders beat the Browns 45-42 in overtime (ESPN); Cleveland lost the moneyline bet.
“I saw this game when I saw it on Sunday night I saw the Colts as two favorites [15:08] And I will say that I bet it immediately.”
37-34 — Texans beat the Colts 37-34 in overtime (ESPN box score); Indianapolis lost outright, busting the -2 spread.
“But I am definitely going to bet the Raiders this week. [38:13] In fact, I actually just bet them at minus 2.5, minus 105.”
45-42 — Raiders beat the Browns 45-42 in overtime (ESPN); the 3-point margin covers -2.5.
“I just bet the Broncos at plus five and a half, minus 105. [47:45] I did it while you were talking.”
27-23 — Chiefs beat the Broncos 27-23 (ESPN); Denver's 4-point loss covers the +5.5 spread.
“Well, you have to bet the Cardinals because all the money is going to be on the road favorite. Like, if I'm going to believe in my philosophy, I have to do that with the Cardinals. I got to do it with the Giants. I got to do it with the Broncos. Like, there's a whole host of games that I got to do it with. I'm going to have to do it with Tennessee. You know, I got to. I got to. Gooch? You got to. I got to be who I am. Yeah, yeah. You know what I'm saying? So for no other reason, like, I'm not even looking at the teams. I'm just looking at the number. I see the home team is a three-point dog, and I see all the money coming in on the road favorite. Like, I'm going with the Cardinals.”
20-17 — Seahawks beat the Cardinals 20-17 on a last-play field goal (ESPN); Arizona's exact 3-point loss pushes against +3.
“Here is our nine-team parlay. BYU, plus 16.5 at Washington. Hawaii, minus 14 at San Jose State. Indianapolis Colts, minus 2.5 at home against Houston. The Denver Broncos, plus 4 against the Kansas City Chiefs. East Carolina, minus 5.5 against Old Dominion. Oakland, minus 3 versus the Cleveland Browns. Detroit, plus 3.5 against Dallas. We have the Vikings plus six and a half on Thursday night against the Los Angeles Rams. The Arizona Cardinals plus three at home against the Seattle Seahawks. I like it. That's going to be $60. It's going to pay $20,000.”
9-leg parlay busts: BYU +16.5 lost (Washington 35, BYU 7); Hawaii -14 lost (Hawaii 44, San Jose St 41, 5OT); Colts -2.5 lost (Texans 37, Colts 34 OT); Broncos +4 pushed (Chiefs 27, Broncos 23); East Carolina -5.5 lost (ECU 37, ODU 35); Raiders -3 pushed (Raiders 45, Browns 42 OT); Lions +3.5 won (Cowboys 26, Lions 24); Vikings +6.5 lost (Rams 38, Vikings 31); Cardinals +3 pushed (Seahawks 20, Cardinals 17); a parlay needs every leg to win, so it busts (ESPN box scores).
“Jeff Schwartz, as is our custom, you're up first. Let's start in college football. You talk about lines you bet right away. BYU is plus 16 and a half now. I got them last night at plus 17 at Washington. And this game, the under is not posted yet, and I would be very inclined to take the under eventually when I see it get posted. So Washington this year has an interesting year. They did not cover week one against Auburn. and they lost 21-16. They believe they might have covered against Utah, but they only won 21-7. And this weekend, they beat Washington, excuse me, Arizona State, 20-27-20 as huge favorites in that game as well. They're just not playing on offense quite like people expected with a fifth-year quarterback. It's not surprising. Jake Browning didn't play terribly well last year. And then on the flip side, their defense is just as good as it was last year. They were fourth in points allowed last year. They're right now at only allowing 12 points a game. But BYU as well, they went into a ranked Cal, and Cal's now ranked, and lost by three. Kept that game very close Went to a ranked Wisconsin and beat them 24 And they played McNeese State this week a throwaway game They won that game And then also week one went to Arizona and won by five I think it's way too many points to give the Cougars in a game that's going to be a defensive game. BYU is only allowing 17 points a game. So a defensive game against two teams I think that are matched well. And BYU is not getting any love. I want the points here.”
35-7 — BYU lost at Washington 35-7 (ESPN box score); a 28-point road loss busts the BYU +16.5 spread.
“You have to get on this line right now. [15:27] Hawaii minus, it's 13.5 now. [15:29] I got on it last night at 11.5.”
44-41 — Hawaii escaped San Jose State 44-41 in five overtimes (ESPN); the 3-point margin falls well short of covering -11.5.
“but my first pick is going to be Indy [18:18] as a two and a half point home favorite [18:22] against the Houston Texans.”
37-34 — Texans beat the Colts 37-34 in overtime (ESPN box score); Indianapolis lost outright, busting the -2.5 spread.
“So I going to like I said I need to go against what I would normally do here And I am going Denver plus four”
27-23 — Chiefs beat the Broncos 27-23 on Monday Night Football (ESPN); Denver's 4-point loss lands exactly on the +4 line, a push.
“Minus five for the Pirates. [28:08] You're betting East Carolina right now? [28:11] I don't know, man. [28:12] I think Paul is on to... [28:14] I already bet this game in every app.”
37-35 — East Carolina edged Old Dominion 37-35 on a late field goal (ESPN); the 2-point margin falls short of covering -5.
“Chad Millie Monster picks the Oakland Raiders as three-point favorites at home against Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns.”
45-42 — Raiders beat the Browns 45-42 in overtime (ESPN); the exact 3-point margin pushes against -3.
“Lions in the Cowboys in Dallas plus three and a half [35:45] for a couple reasons here.”
26-24 — Cowboys beat the Lions 26-24 on a last-second field goal (ESPN); Detroit's 2-point road loss covers the +3.5 spread.
“Yeah. Do you want to hear my other pick, Millie Monster? The Minnesota Vikings. What's this number? It's plus five and a half, I think. Opened up at seven. To me, it's the plus six and a half. They just got blown out at home against the Bengals. It's down to five and a half. So the money is going towards the Vikings. Okay. What are you guys telling me? It's still six and a half. I like that. I like that pick.”
38-31 — Rams beat the Vikings 38-31 on Thursday Night Football (ESPN); the 7-point loss busts the +6.5 spread.
“I am 100% in on the Cardinals. [45:46] All right. [45:47] I'll change it. [45:48] I'll do Arizona plus three.”
20-17 — Seahawks beat the Cardinals 20-17 on a last-play field goal (ESPN); Arizona's exact 3-point loss pushes against +3.
“i can say i like the colts here i like it a lot better at seven but the super contest doesn give us that option so i still like him at six and a half i actually think the colts have a chance to win this game outright”
16-20 — Eagles beat Colts 20-16; Indianapolis +6.5 loses by only 4, covers (ESPN box score).
“i'm taking the three points with new orleans”
43-37 — Saints beat Falcons 43-37 in OT; New Orleans +3 wins outright, covers (ESPN box score).
“Bengals at Panthers. Panthers by three. Blackjack, which jungle cat do you prefer? Bengals or Panthers? Ooh. Which jungle cat? I think I like the Panthers but This is another game I have a tough time on know the bengals have outperformed expectations for me this year everything you saying is wrong go ahead say it the bengals haven't outperformed my expectations say what you're gonna say it's say what you're gonna say it's say it i thought they were gonna stink say it eileen carolina you're wrong i mean i admit i could be i don't love this game i love this game i love this game so you know what how much do you love it. I love it. I'll give it to you right now. You were right on the Bengals in week one. You want it, you got it. I got it. Yes. It's a yes. It's a yes. Do you want to know why? I do. I do. But I just want you to know that's how much I trust you on the Bengals. You nailed him in week one. I'll give him to you in week three. We can't be doing any worse. You're right. And the Bengals are one of the two wins we've got. So I'm going to give it to you. Here's why. The Bengals defense is phenomenal. That's like a four-syllable word, okay? Phenomenal. They are seventh in the league in yards per play on defense. They are second in the league in yards per play allowed rushing the ball. Okay? How are the Panthers going to beat this team? The only thing they can do is run the ball. They can dump it off to McCaffrey. They seem to like doing that. That's basically a run. Yeah, more or less. You throw that screen into the middle of the defensive line for the Bengals, they're going to stop it. They've got a great secondary. They're just a good team. They're a good team no one's paying attention to. That's where the value is. Give me the Cincinnati Bengals.”
21-31 — Panthers beat Bengals 31-21; Bengals +3 loses by 10, busts (ESPN box score).
“Kansas City may still win this game but I kind of like San Francisco catching six and a half here”
27-38 — Chiefs beat 49ers 38-27; San Francisco +6.5 loses by 11, busts (ESPN box score).
“I can handle laying two points here. I like Seattle.”
13-24 — Seahawks beat Cowboys 24-13; Seattle -2 wins by 11, covers (ESPN box score).
“The Indianapolis Colts, I liked this game. I don't like it anymore. This game opened at 6.5. Now it's at 6. Where are you at? We're at 6 on the game. We bounced back and forth a couple times, 6, 6.5. Still waiting. You know, Jay Ajay is doubtful for the Eagles, but we're waiting to see if Wentz is going to be the starter in this one. He been upgraded to probable and it not going to make a huge difference in the line but public perception may sway So if he in we go back to 6 and maybe even 7 even money But again, here, we probably have the Colts ranked a little higher than the general public thinks. That first game against the Bengals, now that we both admit that the Bengals really are a good team, That loss against the Bengals doesn't look like a bad loss for Indianapolis. I think they can keep this game close. Philadelphia showed that they could be very vulnerable. So I think that's a lot of points in this one. I do too. I love the Colts in this game. I love the Colts even if Carson Wentz is playing.”
16-20 — Eagles beat Colts 20-16; Indianapolis +6 loses by only 4, covers (ESPN box score).
“No one's going to like this one, but the Steelers. Don't do it. Against the bucket. Oh! Wow! Yeah. Wow. Steelers over the Bucs. The Steelers. If I'm saying I made them like three and a half and was going to make them even higher, how can I not lay one?”
30-27 — Steelers beat Buccaneers 30-27 (played Monday Sept 24, 2018); Pittsburgh -1 wins outright and covers (ESPN box score).
“So now you have Cincinnati plus three, a team who's 2-0, who's playing really well right now. They look like a playoff team. They look like the 2015 team. They're still getting no respect. And so I think this is a great play at plus three on Sunday.”
21-31 — Panthers beat Bengals 31-21; Bengals +3 loses by 10, busts (ESPN box score).
“And I think that Minnesota is just going to absolutely bury them. And the line is 16.5. It's by far the biggest line. It's almost nine points bigger than any other line in the NFL. Minnesota. That's my pick.”
27-6 — Bills beat Vikings 27-6 outright; Minnesota -16.5 loses badly, busts (ESPN box score).
“But I like Mississippi State in this spot as a 10-point favorite over Kentucky on the road.”
7-28 — Kentucky upset Mississippi State 28-7; Mississippi State -10 loses outright as favorite, busts (ESPN box score).
“All right. I think I'm going to stay in the NFL here, and kind of my feeling about teams not getting a lot of respect. And, again, I know the Raiders covered today, but I'm kind of on this fade the Raiders thing all season, because I think that they're, even though the game they won today, I don't think they played terribly well in the second half, and they still have a lot of holes. They have to travel now after a really tough loss in Denver all the way to Miami. They're going to play a Miami team that's 2-0. They beat the Jets this week. They actually pounded the Jets, really, in New York after everyone thought the Jets were going to win 11-12 games. They beat Tennessee already this year. They're only laying three points. And I think it's another underrated team who's playing really good ball. I know, Chad, you talk about it often. and the Southern teams that no one really cares about, they kind of fall in that category. I forget your exact terms on that, but it feels like this is another game where no one's respecting the Dolphins. There's already 77% of money on Oakland, and they lost today. They haven't played good ball yet, and I just feel like this is another way to fade the public in this game.”
20-28 — Dolphins beat Raiders 28-20; Miami -3.5 wins outright and covers (ESPN box score).
“Paulie, you're up next. Okay, with my next selection. and it's i'm gonna piggyback on your boy and we're talking about teams that are a little bit underappreciated and how about washington state now they're they're three you know they won 41 to 19 you know they shut out san jose state and you you talk uh about schwarze said that he lost a lot of units san jose state gave oregon some fits this weekend um sort of stayed in that game like Oregon can never really just like spurt away from them at all so to me this is a simple simple game of listen to our Collin Wilson and playing an underrated team here in the Pac-12. Now with Arizona State losing, we need teams out of the Pac-12 to start emerging. And I think Washington State's the play here against SC, plus the points. I have to pick another pick now, Paul, because this is going to be my third one. I love this pick. I saw this right away. You have a USC team that is not very good. And I think there's a lot of questions now whether Clay Helton is a really good coach. We saw he wasn't very good without Sam Darnold, but Sam Darnold plays for two years. he's pretty good. And now, you know, the first half against UNLV, well, really, they were only up 19-14 entering the fourth quarter. They scored three touchdowns or something in the fourth quarter, and one that came easily. They lost to Stanford, really, in no contest, 17-3. And then Texas blew them out. Texas is, what, a 6-16, a 7-16? They're just, like, okay. Texas might get run out of the gym by TCU this week. They probably will. So I think this is great. You get the point. And by the way, also, Paul, you're a West Coast guy. You know this. Friday night night games in the Pac-12 are funky, dude. They're weird as can be. And there's a lot of upsets on Friday night in the Pac-12 conference. This feels very much like a Washington State could win this game outright. I'm with both of you. It was one of the games that I had sort of pegged on the board. And I knew, Jeff, that you wanted to take it. And then Paul just stole it from you. As a guy who played in the Pac-12, is it stranger to play a game on a Friday night? Is it harder to play a game on a Friday night? The Pac-12 has had really weird scheduling quirks, and they've fixed some of these issues that they've had on Friday nights. They've always sent really good teams, not out of conference, but to weird spots. They put a ranked USC team up in Pullman or Washington. It's a weird place to play. You're playing Corvallis at Oregon State on the Friday night. They just always have sent really good teams at the weirdest places to play in the conference. If you've ever been to Pullman or you've ever been to Corvallis, like you kind of would understand the quirkiness of those places. And it's, I'm just, it just is, Pac-12 after dark, the games that start late at night, they're just odd, man. There's a lot of points. They don't go as you think they're going to go. It's just a weird conference out west sometimes when the lights are on. All right, so now we're at Washington State plus four and a half against USC. I agree.”
36-39 — USC beat Washington State 39-36; WSU +4.5 loses by only 3, covers (ESPN box score).
“Indianapolis Colts plus seven against the Philadelphia Eagles Here my logic Number one Andrew Luck”
16-20 — Eagles beat Colts 20-16; Indianapolis +7 loses by only 4, covers (ESPN box score).
“But I'm going over 54.5. A ton of points NFL. Chiefs and 49ers.”
27-38 — Chiefs beat 49ers 38-27, combined 65 points; Over 54.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“and lay your six and a half points and lose all your money while Paula Duca bets the Tennessee Titans the Fighting Vrabels plus six and a half Book it Dano Give me a reason”
9-6 — Titans beat Jaguars 9-6 outright; Tennessee +6.5 covers easily (ESPN box score).
“I am going to go with the Cleveland Browns. Oh, my God. Minus three and a half over the New York Jets.”
17-21 — Browns beat Jets 21-17 on Thursday Night Football; Cleveland -3.5 wins by 4, covers (ESPN box score).
“Let's recap where we're at. Are you ready? Are you boys ready? Yes. Are you boys ready to roll? Here we go. Cincinnati Bengals, plus three at Carolina. The Minnesota Vikings, Jesus Christ. The Minnesota Vikings, minus 16.5 over Buffalo. Mississippi State, minus 10 on the road at Kentucky. The Miami Dolphins, minus three and a half against the Oakland Raiders. Washington State I love this pick plus four and a half against the way overrated USC Trojans The Indianapolis Colts plus seven versus the Philadelphia Eagles Oh, Jesus. The over 54.5 between the Chiefs and the Niners. The Titans, plus six and a half against the Jags. And the Browns, minus three and a half against the Jets.”
9-team parlay busts: Bengals +3 (Panthers won 31-21) and Minnesota -16.5 (Bills won 27-6 outright) and Mississippi State -10 (Kentucky won 28-7) all lost; Miami -3.5 (28-20), Washington State +4.5 (lost 39-36), Colts +7 (lost 20-16), Over 54.5 (38-27), Titans +6.5 (won 9-6), Browns -3.5 (won 21-17) all won — but a parlay needs every leg, so it busts (ESPN box scores).
“I think this is a yes for us. [9:05] I think so too. [9:05] I like the Colts plus six.”
21-9 — Colts beat Redskins 21-9; Colts +6 wins outright and covers (ESPN box score).
“We need to agree on four more games to win million Sure do time to be selective chad houston at tennessee pick him you go houston i mean i i feel like i don i don love it i don have a lot of conviction behind it tennessee's a mess i think we saw that with the miami game mariota banged up a little bit they say he's okay but he lost to laney walker that's a huge loss for them i mean who's he throwing the ball to who is catching the ball out of that backfield and if we know one thing about the texans defense it's tough to run on them they've got a massive front so derrick henry is going to struggle a little bit you know deshaun watson was a step slow i think it's going to take him a little bit to shake the rust off but at a pick i would lean to houston here you know what's interesting like this the texans are the other team that i bought a super bowl ticket on that was silly and um i'm being generous i i loved them so much last week against the patriots and they broke that turn out not good no not good it was ugly yeah really ugly yeah it was um as ugly as what i'm looking at right now and i will tell you it's i'm feeling a little burned but you're probably right i think this is the right side i think you made uh some cogent analysis there, Blackjack. Yeah, I know I did. I say that's a yes. All right. We got two games. Right now, we like the Indianapolis Colts plus six and the Houston Texans at Pickham.”
17-20 — Titans beat Texans 20-17; Texans pick'em loses outright (ESPN box score).
“Cardinals at Rams. Rams by 12 and a half. I like this one. I love this one. Me too. I so love this one. This to me... Now I'm nervous. This to me is like the greatest example in the history of examples of overreaction, of week two overreaction. This game should be like in the Action Network, on the Action Network right now, you can go to our latest NFL Power Ratings. And we have a story that is about the overreactions to week one. this game should be is power rated rams by nine yeah right now it's rams by 12 and a half yeah it's crazy that is and that's super contest that's super in reality it's up to like 13 13 and a half it's it is ridiculous it is so ridiculous let's get the real line right now right now who is laying two touchdowns on an nfl game who's it's stupid it's stupid oh my god right now right now this line in real life is Rams minus 14. 14? Are you kidding me? I bet it on the damn train on the way in and it was 13 and a half. I bet it yesterday and it was 13. It's crazy. I mean, come on. Of course we're taking the Cardinals in this game.”
0-34 — Rams beat Cardinals 34-0; Cardinals +12.5 loses by 34, busts (ESPN box score).
“Giants at Dallas. Cowboys by a field goal. Giants, wrap the show. Let's go. We're done. That is such a yes for me.”
13-20 — Cowboys beat Giants 20-13; Giants +3 loses by 7, busts (ESPN box score).
“I don't see them as the kind of team coming out and stepping on Seattle's throat. If they, if they do win this game, which I think they could, It's going to be a tooth and nail battle. I think it's the right number. Yeah, I agree with you. It's all about the hook to me. Three and a half. I like it.”
17-24 — Bears beat Seahawks 24-17; Seahawks +3.5 loses by 7, busts (ESPN box score).
“I have already bet the Jaguars at plus two.”
JAX 31, NE 20 — Jaguars beat Patriots 31-20 outright; Jaguars margin +11 covers +2 (ESPN box score).
“i have bet already the arizona cardinals as 13 point underdogs in this game”
LAR 34, ARI 0 — Rams shut out Cardinals 34-0; Cardinals lost by 34, failing to cover +13 (ESPN box score).
“But it's a little inflated, and I think the Colts plus the 5.5 is the play here.”
IND 21, WSH 9 — Colts beat Redskins 21-9 outright; Colts margin +12 covers +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“Panthers plus six against the Falcons.”
ATL 31, CAR 24 — Falcons beat Panthers 31-24; Panthers lost by 7, failing to cover +6 (ESPN game page).
“So a rivalry game here. [8:10] I like the Giants plus three.”
DAL 20, NYG 13 — Cowboys beat Giants 20-13; Giants lost by 7, failing to cover +3 (ESPN box score).
“Missouri is going to blow out Purdue. [11:30] Purdue is awful. [11:32] But Missouri minus seven.”
MIZ 40, PUR 37 — Missouri beat Purdue 40-37; Missouri's margin of +3 fails to cover -7 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going with BYU plus 23.”
BYU 24, WIS 21 — BYU upset Wisconsin 24-21 outright, well within the +23 spread (ESPN box score).
“Philly minus three at Tampa. [18:23] Tampa is not very good.”
TB 27, PHI 21 — Buccaneers beat Eagles 27-21; Eagles lost by 6, failing to cover -3 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go in New Mexico, minus six.”
UNM 42, NMSU 25 — New Mexico beat New Mexico State 42-25; New Mexico's margin +17 covers -6 (ESPN game page).
“There's no way I'm taking the Pittsburgh Steelers in this game. [26:52] I'm going with the Kansas City Chiefs plus five.”
KC 42, PIT 37 — Chiefs beat Steelers 42-37 outright, comfortably covering +5 (ESPN game page).
“My last pick on this part, if we ever get to it, is the fighting Herm Edwards Sun Devils minus three and a half.”
SDSU 28, ASU 21 — San Diego State beat Arizona State 28-21 outright, so Arizona State fails to cover -3.5 (ESPN game page).
“So we're at under 44.5. [42:41] That's what you're going with? [42:42] Yes.”
LAC 31, BUF 20 — Chargers beat Bills 31-20; combined 51 points goes over 44.5 (ESPN box score).
“Our 19 parlay. Our 19 parlay, $20 in, $19,000 out, something crazy odds. Giants plus three versus the Dallas Cowboys. Missouri minus seven. BYU plus 23 versus Wisconsin. The Philadelphia Eagles, minus three over Tampa Bay. New Mexico, minus six over New Mexico State. Kansas City, plus five versus the Pittsburgh Steelers. Arizona State, where Paul LaDuca's number is retired, minus three and a half against San Diego State. Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo Bills, under 44 and a half. the Jacksonville Jaguars plus one and a half versus the New England Patriots. That is nine-teamer.”
Nine-team parlay busts: Giants +3 lost (Cowboys 20-13 Giants); Missouri -7 lost (Missouri 40-37 Purdue); BYU +23 won (BYU 24-21 Wisconsin); Eagles -3 lost (Buccaneers 27-21 Eagles); New Mexico -6 won (New Mexico 42-25 New Mexico State); Chiefs +5 won (Chiefs 42-37 Steelers); Arizona State -3.5 lost (San Diego State 28-21 Arizona State); Under 44.5 lost (Chargers 31-20 Bills, 51 combined); Jaguars +1.5 won (Jaguars 31-20 Patriots) — since not every leg won, the parlay loses.
“New York Giants, plus three against the Jacksonville Jaguars.”
JAX 20, NYG 15 — Jaguars beat Giants 20-15; Giants lost by 5, failing to cover +3 (ESPN box score).
“as much as it pains me to say this chat I couldn't [4:34] agree with you more I've been on the Giants for a while here three-point home favorite they draft [4:38] Saquon Barkley Beckham is back healthy they add Ogletree from the Rams to a defense that was [4:43] already pretty good Sterling Shepherd is back I don't see how the Giants don't [4:48] take a massive step forward this year and the Jaguars are primed for a step [4:52] backwards with Blake Bortles and Doug Marone still driving that bus so yeah I with you here Giants plus three”
JAX 20, NYG 15 — Jaguars beat Giants 20-15; Giants lost by 5, failing to cover +3 (ESPN box score).
“Cincinnati Bengals, plus, I can't believe we are putting $1 million on the Cincinnati Bengals. You can't believe it! Plus three. You just sold me on it! Plus three against the Indianapolis Colts.”
IND 23, CIN 34 — Bengals beat Colts 34-23; Bengals margin +11 covers +3 (ESPN box score).
“We are betting a million dollars on the Tennessee Titans minus one and a half over the Miami Dolphins.”
MIA 27, TEN 20 — Dolphins beat Titans 27-20; Titans lost by 7, failing to cover -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“So now he's the savior returning to the field for the first time in a year and a half against the Tennessee Titans, who were a playoff team last year. The fact that you only have to lay one and a half here is a gift. And I think if you want to talk about your game theory I think very few people are going to play this game This game is not desirable to a lot of people But I find it very desirable I very excited right now I love this I love it I am so excited Not desirable to anybody”
MIA 27, TEN 20 — Dolphins beat Titans 27-20; Titans lost by 7, failing to cover -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“We are betting a million dollars on the Denver Broncos minus three over the Seattle Seahawks.”
DEN 27, SEA 24 — Broncos beat Seahawks 27-24; Broncos margin +3 exactly matches -3, pushing (ESPN box score).
“There's no reason that this shouldn't be a comfortable win for the Denver Broncos. We have a yes. We have our third yes. Okay. We now have the Denver Broncos as three-point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks.”
DEN 27, SEA 24 — Broncos beat Seahawks 27-24; Broncos margin +3 exactly matches -3, pushing (ESPN box score).
“We have a maybe on the Steelers as three-and-a-half-point favorites over the Browns. I could buy into the Steelers. Thank God. All right. Thank God. It's taken me three weeks to get them here. Let's add the Steelers.”
CLE 21, PIT 21 — Steelers and Browns tied 21-21; Steelers' margin of 0 fails to cover -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“We are betting a million dollars on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus three and a half against the Cleveland Browns.”
CLE 21, PIT 21 — Steelers and Browns tied 21-21; Steelers' margin of 0 fails to cover -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“You want to take the Houston Texans here getting six and a half points. That's what you want to do. You serious? Not only do I want to do it, I have gone into the Action Network app and made that pick.”
NE 27, HOU 20 — Patriots beat Texans 27-20; Texans lost by 7, failing to cover +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“I loved it at 7 I played it at 7 but I don't like 7.5”
BAL 47, BUF 3 — Ravens routed Bills 47-3; Ravens margin +44 easily covers -7 (ESPN box score).
“I loved it at 7 I played it at 7 we're moving on”
BAL 47, BUF 3 — Ravens routed Bills 47-3; Ravens margin +44 easily covers -7 (ESPN box score).
“Dallas at Carolina. Jeff Schwartz has also pointed out that the under is a good play here. It opened at 44. It's now down to 42. I played it at 44 just so people can know that.”
CAR 16, DAL 8 — Panthers beat Cowboys 16-8; combined 24 points is under 44 (ESPN box score).
“which isn't a bad thing i mean uh yeah i took the falcons i took the falcons at three and a half”
PHI 18, ATL 12 — Eagles beat Falcons 18-12; Falcons lost by 6, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I feel like I have now bet the Ravens. I bet them at minus 7.”
BAL 47, BUF 3 — Ravens routed Bills 47-3; Ravens margin +44 easily covers -7 (ESPN box score).
“I love the Saints You know I bought like a Saints to win the Super Bowl ticket at 18 I think they the best team in the conference I have full faith in them”
The Rams beat the Saints 26-23 in overtime in the NFC Championship, and the Patriots beat the Rams 13-3 in Super Bowl LIII, so the Saints (18-1) future to win the Super Bowl loses.
“um i got the under at 44 by the way and uh like a lot of a lot of narratives happening here”
CAR 16, DAL 8 — Panthers beat Cowboys 16-8; combined 24 points is under 44 (ESPN box score).
“the one game [45:57] where I still have a lot of confidence [45:59] no matter what the number is [46:00] Houston Texans plus 6.5”
NE 27, HOU 20 — Patriots beat Texans 27-20; Texans lost by 7, failing to cover +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“I think the Giants run over and have already invested in that at six and a half.”
The Giants finished the 2018 season 5-11, well under the 6.5-win total (Wikipedia, citing the season's final results).
“Two other teams, the Saints and the Texans. They happen to be two teams where I am holding 20-1 tickets to win the Super Bowl in my pocket right now.”
The Rams beat the Saints 26-23 in overtime in the NFC Championship, and the Patriots beat the Rams 13-3 in Super Bowl LIII, so the Saints (20-1) future to win the Super Bowl loses.
“They happen to be two teams where I am holding 20-1 tickets to win the Super Bowl in my pocket right now.”
The Colts beat the Texans 21-7 in the AFC Wild Card round; the Texans did not win Super Bowl LIII, so the +2000 future loses.