Arvell Reese to be selected second overall (-105) · BetMGM
“Yeah, I'm going to go with Arvell Reese at this point. We've seen National Insiders flip-flop multiple times, but a lot of the big ones who just released their mocks, talking about the Peter Schragers of the world, have basically said, we don't know, and if you say that you know, you're probably wrong. So it seems like all the National Insiders are kind of throwing their hands up in the air, and so are Sportsbooks. Like you said, both are minus odds right now. I think they're just kind of happy maybe taking some action at this point and keeping it close. So I'm going to go with Reese. You know, I think there's been a couple of, you know, dot connecting here early in the process. And just like schematically and logically, it makes a ton of sense. I personally think that the canceled visit was another sign that it's going to be a Reese here. Like I went back and looked historically. I think there's two ways to look at that logically. Right. But historically, there's no precedent for a team canceling a visit and then taking the guy. There's been teams who have drafted a guy without a visit or have obviously drafted a guy with a visit. But there's not really much precedent for a team in the top five canceling a visit and then drafting them anyway. So generally it doesn't happen. I would be surprised at this point. I'm going to go with Reese here at minus 105. And Reese is minus 105 currently right now at BetMGM.”
The New York Giants selected Arvell Reese with the No. 5 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, not second overall (NFL.com).
Carolina Panthers to select a safety with their first pick
“Give me one other bet that you like. Could be anything you like in the 2026 NFL Draft for our audience and for me. We're going to go with the Carolina Panthers to pick a safety, particularly Dylan Thienemann.”
The Carolina Panthers used their first pick (No. 19 overall) in the 2026 NFL Draft on offensive tackle Monroe Freeling, not a safety (ESPN).
Chase Bisontis to be a first-round pick
“I'm going to go with a fun one here that I really like, and I've just kept adding to Chase Besantis, first round pick. It's like plus 300 to plus 400, depending on where you can find it.”
Chase Bisontis (OG, Texas A&M) was drafted No. 34 overall by the Arizona Cardinals in Round 2, not Round 1.
Kansas City Chiefs first drafted position — safety (+650)
“I am going to close us out with the Chiefs to draft a safety at plus 650.
I mentioned earlier they have to nail this pick at nine.
Caleb Downs, if by some miracle he's sitting there when they pick, I think they're going to have to throw their needs out the window.
They are drafting top 10 here.
You can't get too need hungry.
Yes, they need offensive line help.
Yes, they need some better skill position players, but if he's there, he'll be the best player on the board.
They just traded McDuffie.
They need help in the secondary.
And Caleb Downs is a stud and an adult on defense.
They cannot afford to get this pick wrong.
If he's there plus 650, I like him to go to the Kansas City Chiefs.”
The Kansas City Chiefs' first 2026 draft pick was CB Mansoor Delane (LSU) at No. 6 overall, not a safety.
Under 6.5 ACC players drafted in Round 1 (-260)
“I took ACC players under 6.5 and minus 260.”
Exactly 6 ACC players were drafted in Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft: Francis Mauigoa, Rueben Bain Jr., and Akheem Mesidor (Miami), Blake Miller and Peter Woods (Clemson), and Keylan Rutledge (Georgia Tech) — under the 6.5 line. (6 ACC players drafted in Round 1)
Los Angeles Rams to draft a wide receiver (+150)
“so you mentioned the rams and the receiver thing i think i looked this morning and it was plus 150
for them to take a receiver i kind of really like the value here because i'm in the camp that after
everything going on with puka they might be looking to find a replacement for him and obviously
davante because i don't expect he's going to be around much longer do you think that that's enough
value there or would you need a little bit more to to get in on that considering that they do have
both solidified and that's an early pick.
No, I have that one written down.
I think that that's a great bet.
I mean, you're looking at this team.
Devontae's aging.
He's getting old.
I think even if you had Puka here,
like that could make sense to draft
maybe a guy like Makai Lemon,
you know, a guy that can play slot
and like kick Devontae outside.
He can spend a little bit of time learning
and be good to go from there.
Now you have Puka's offseason,
you know, which I'm sure the Rams
are not too pleased with.
And so you have that with Devontae aging
And, you know, the Rams don't always have higher picks like this and a chance to get like a potential playmaker.
And I like too that you getting just a wide receiver So maybe they like Omar Cooper Maybe they like I don know maybe they take Inception You know like that very possible It wouldn be the craziest thing in the world for them to get a guy or Tyson falls or I can imagine Cardinal Tate falls that far
But, you know, again, like you're getting all those different kinds of values there.
So I like that bet at plus 150.”
The Los Angeles Rams drafted WR CJ Daniels (Miami) with pick No. 197 in Round 6 of the 2026 NFL Draft.
Omarion Hampton under 800.5 rushing yards
“I think one that stood out to me early would be the rookie Omarion Hampton under 800 and a half rushing yards.”
Omarion Hampton finished the 2025 regular season with 545 rushing yards over 9 games (ESPN stats page), under the 800.5 line. (545 rushing yards)
Jack Bech under 575.5 receiving yards
“and I also like one of his receivers' unders, Jack Besch. You can find as high as 575.5 in certain spots.”
Jack Bech finished his 2025 rookie season with 224 receiving yards on 20 catches over 16 games (ESPN stats page), well under 575.5. (224 receiving yards)
Mike Williams under 475.5 receiving yards
“Mike Williams, his prop is posted. He's not with the Chargers. It was his 475 and a half.”
Mike Williams retired from the NFL on July 17, 2025 while with the Chargers and never played a 2025 game, finishing with 0 receiving yards, under 475.5 (Wikipedia player page). (0 receiving yards)
Dak Prescott 4500+ passing yards (+500)
“another one that i like here is uh Dak Prescott to throw 4 500 yards is five to one”
Dak Prescott threw for 4,552 passing yards over 17 games in the 2025 regular season (ESPN stats page), clearing the 4,500+ line. (4,552 passing yards)
Rachaad White under 500 rushing yards
“some other unders here, Rachaad White under 500 rushing yards”
Rachaad White rushed for 572 yards over 17 games in the 2025 season (ESPN team stats page), over the under-500 line. (572 rushing yards)
Jordan Addison under 750 receiving yards
“three real quick jordan addison under 750 if that's still around”
Jordan Addison finished the 2025 season with 610 receiving yards on 42 catches over 14 games (ESPN stats page), under the 750 line. (610 receiving yards)
Deebo Samuel under 725 receiving yards
“Deebo Samuel under 725 i mean i don't need much analysis there.”
Deebo Samuel finished the 2025 season with 727 receiving yards on 72 catches for Washington (ESPN team stats page), narrowly over the under-725 line. (727 receiving yards)
Matthew Golden under 750.5 receiving yards
“And then Matthew Golden under 750 and a half, I think is interesting as well.”
Matthew Golden finished his 2025 rookie season with 361 receiving yards on 29 catches over 14 games (ESPN stats page), well under 750.5. (361 receiving yards)
San Francisco 49ers to win NFC (+1000)
“i gonna go with nine niners to win the nfc is 10 to 1”
The Seattle Seahawks won the 2025 NFC Championship, beating the Rams 31-27 (Wikipedia Super Bowl LX page); the 49ers did not win the NFC.
San Francisco 49ers to win Super Bowl (+2000)
“and to win the super bowl is 20 to 1”
The Seattle Seahawks won Super Bowl LX 29-13 over the New England Patriots on Feb 8, 2026 (Wikipedia); the 49ers did not win the Super Bowl.
Kelvin Banks Jr. selected sixth overall
“[7:12] Give us a top 10 curve ball.
[7:14] You think we could see tonight and bets that you've made around that potential.
[7:18] Yeah, there's a couple, I think that starting at like six and seven.
[7:23] I mean, I guess at this point, Calvin makes his favorite at six, but that was something
[7:26] thing that I got in.”
Kelvin Banks Jr. was selected 9th overall by the New Orleans Saints in the 2025 NFL Draft, not 6th overall.
Omarion Hampton draft position under 20.5
“[8:51] it. I'm still of the camp that I think that Hampton goes 20 and not Henderson. So I played a
[8:56] little bit of under 20 and a half.”
Omarion Hampton was selected 22nd overall by the Los Angeles Chargers in the 2025 NFL Draft, over the 20.5 draft-position line.
Shedeur Sanders draft position over 8.5
“think he slides no i i bet some over eight and a half at some probably ridiculous juice this morning”
The Cleveland Browns selected Shedeur Sanders with the No. 144 overall pick (Round 5) of the 2025 NFL Draft (NFL.com), well over the 8.5 draft-position line. (Drafted No. 144 overall (Round 5, Browns))
Over 2.5 running backs drafted first round (+200)
“[1:25:46] The over-under on running backs is two and a half,
[1:25:49] over plus 150, under minus 200.
[1:25:51] How are you betting the over-under on the running backs
[1:25:53] drafted in the first round?
[1:25:55] Yeah, I played a little bit of over at like two to one.
[1:25:58] That number's come down since then.
[1:25:59] We had Daniel Jeremiah saying that he's going to go way higher”
Only 2 running backs (Ashton Jeanty, No. 6; Omarion Hampton, No. 22) were drafted in Round 1 of the 2025 NFL Draft (NFL.com draft tracker), under the 2.5 line, so the over lost. (2 RBs drafted in Round 1)
Matthew Golden first wide receiver drafted
“I played Golden to be the first wide receiver drafted”
Travis Hunter (Jaguars, No. 2), Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers, No. 8), and Emeka Egbuka (Buccaneers, No. 19) were all drafted before Matthew Golden, who went No. 23 overall to Green Bay in the 2025 NFL Draft (Wikipedia/NFL draft results). (First WR drafted: Travis Hunter (No. 2))
Dalton Kincaid over 3.5 receptions
“[2:03:36] with that being said i think the dull can kate over three and a half receptions is a pretty”
BUF 47, JAX 10 — Dalton Kincaid caught 3 passes against Jacksonville, busting over 3.5 receptions. (Dalton Kincaid: 3 receptions)
Luke Farrell under 5.5 receiving yards
“[2:03:59] five and a half receiving yards. He ran five routes last week, and then the Jags just upgraded”
BUF 47, JAX 10 — Luke Farrell caught 1 pass for 1 receiving yard against Buffalo, staying under 5.5. (Luke Farrell: 1 receiving yard)
Brian Robinson Jr. over 54.5 rushing yards
“[2:05:36] We're looking at his rushing yard prop right now at 54.5.”
CIN 33, WSH 38 — Brian Robinson Jr. rushed for 33 yards against Cincinnati, busting over 54.5. (Brian Robinson Jr.: 33 rushing yards)
Noah Brown over receiving yards (16.5 or 17.5)
“[2:05:49] And then Noah Brown, I think, is an interesting one.
[2:05:52] I played some alternate overs on him as well because he only ran 12 routes last week,
[2:05:56] had 54 receiving yards.
[2:05:58] I think he's probably one of the most dynamic wide receivers at this point.
[2:06:01] We saw this week, too, the coaches were talking him up,
[2:06:04] saying that they want to get him involved more.
[2:06:05] So only ran 12 routes last week.
[2:06:07] That's where we're getting a prop right now of around 16.5, 17.5 receiving yards.
[2:06:11] So I think the over there is an interesting look if they get him any more involved.”
CIN 33, WSH 38 — Noah Brown caught 3 passes for 29 receiving yards against Cincinnati, clearing the 16.5/17.5 baselines discussed. (Noah Brown: 3 receptions, 29 receiving yards)
Erick All under 11.5 receiving yards
“[2:06:16] I loving these backup tight end unders Erick All under 15 under 11 and a half receiving yards ran 15 routes last week on 43 dropbacks Tee Higgins is returning and I don think they going to have to throw as much”
CIN 33, WSH 38 — Erick All Jr. caught 4 passes for 22 receiving yards against Washington, busting under 11.5. (Erick All Jr.: 22 receiving yards)
Chicago Bears -2.5
“[2:07:03] Yeah, I think I'm ready to get hurt again and bet on the Bears here.
[2:07:07] Mine is two and a half.
[2:07:09] This Rams team is just really interesting because they're beat up.
[2:07:13] You know, they basically went to play a lot of 12 personnel last week to try and make up for some of the offensive line issues as well as some of the receiving core issues because they clearly don't seem to think that any of their receivers can actually fit in the roles that they've designed for them.
[2:07:25] You know, Cooper Cup, there's a lot of talk about Jordan Whittington being the Cooper Cup role.
[2:07:29] He only ran around and like it was like 40% drop back, something like that.
[2:07:32] And then same with Tyler Johnson, who's supposed to play in the Puka Nakua, Robert Woods role.
[2:07:36] I mean, he's playing running like 16 routes out there.
[2:07:38] The only one who's really viable at this point is Demarcus Robinson,
[2:07:42] and it just doesn't seem to be going very well.
[2:07:44] So I have a hard time thinking that this Rams passing game gets going here
[2:07:48] against the Bears defense, which has played really well.
[2:07:50] The Bears offense has been the issue,
[2:07:52] and it's admittedly gotten better every week.
[2:07:54] It started off so, so bad.
[2:07:56] It's obviously just not good enough yet, but there's enough flashes, I think,
[2:07:59] that this Bears offense I could see taking a step here in this stretch of
[2:08:03] schedules when they get the Rams and some other easier matchups offensively
[2:08:07] as well.
[2:08:07] So I like the Bears here at anything less than three.
[2:08:10] A couple more minutes with our friend Connor Allen from 4 for 4 Betsports and the Move the Line podcast.”
CHI 24, LAR 18 — Bears beat Rams 24-18 on September 29, 2024; Chicago's +6 margin covers -2.5.
Carolina Panthers +6
“[2:08:33] yeah there's a couple of early spots that we've gotten into here um panthers plus six uh there's”
CAR 24, CIN 34 — Bengals beat Panthers 34-24 on September 29, 2024; Carolina's -10 margin busts +6.
Under 47.5
“New England Connor game of the weeks in Kansas City uh Femi and I were talking about this game the last segment we both really like the bangles plus the points we just think that six is too many the total has dropped from 48 and a half to 47 and a half any thoughts uh side total props in chiefs and bangles yeah i played some some under in the game here and a lot of that has to do with”
KC 26, CIN 25 — Chiefs beat Bengals 26-25 (51 combined points) on a walk-off field goal; the under 47.5 busts (ESPN box score).
Demetric Felton over 40 rushing yards
“[1:33:32] gonna have more than 15 20 snaps the match dimitri felton over 40 rushing yards supposed to play like”
CHI 21, HOU 17 — Demetric Felton (Bears) carried 3 times for 14 rushing yards, well under 40, as Chicago beat Houston 21-17 in the Hall of Fame Game (ESPN box score). (Demetric Felton: 3 car, 14 rushing yards)
Cam Akers under 14.5 rushing yards
“[1:33:43] I played Cam Akers under 14 and a half rushing yards as well.”
CHI 21, HOU 17 — Cam Akers (Texans) carried 5 times for 13 rushing yards, under 14.5, as Chicago beat Houston 21-17 in the Hall of Fame Game (ESPN box score). (Cam Akers: 5 car, 13 rushing yards)
Las Vegas Raiders under 6.5 wins
“[1:35:00] We're going to go with the Las Vegas Raiders under six and a half wins this year.
[1:35:06] This is plus money right now.”
The Las Vegas Raiders finished the 2024 regular season 4-13, below 6.5 wins (NFL.com official standings). (Las Vegas Raiders: 4-13)
Las Vegas Raiders to have the NFL's worst record
“[1:35:47] Also played a little sprinkle of worst record in the NFL on the Las Vegas Raiders this year”
Las Vegas finished 4-13 in 2024, not the NFL's worst record; the Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, and New York Giants each finished 3-14 (NFL.com official standings). (Raiders 4-13; Browns/Titans/Giants 3-14)
Ladd McConkey to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+3500)
“[1:44:34] I think Ladd McConkie is a fantastic look for a lot of reasons, but the Herbert thing throws it
[1:44:39] into question a little bit. I keep buying Ladd McConkie basically every format, every betting
[1:44:44] possibility wise here. I think was massively underutilized at Georgia, tested well, great
[1:44:49] route runner good you know rapport already with Herbert so I think that him at 35 to 1 is someone
[1:44:54] interesting if I'd play quarterback it'd probably be Bo Nix just because I think he sees the most”
Washington's Jayden Daniels won the 2024 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award with 49 of 50 first-place votes; Ladd McConkey did not win (NFL.com). (2024 AP OROY: Jayden Daniels)
Jayden Daniels to be selected second overall
“Yeah, I played a little bit of Jayden Daniels, too, here.”
The Washington Commanders selected LSU QB Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Apr 25, 2024 (NFL.com). (Selected No. 2 overall by Washington Commanders)
Miami Dolphins-Buffalo Bills over 53.5
“Yeah, I lean towards the over here at 53.5.”
BUF 48, MIA 20 — Bills beat Dolphins 48-20, combined 68 points, clearing the over 53.5 (ESPN box score).
Logan Thomas over 2.5 receptions
“I took Logan Thomas over two and a half receptions”
Logan Thomas had 3 receptions for 41 yards in the Eagles' 34-31 overtime win over the Commanders, clearing the over 2.5 receptions (ESPN box score). (Logan Thomas: 3 receptions, 41 yards)
Christian Watson over 18 yards longest reception
“So I took Christian Watson over 18 longest reception”
Christian Watson's longest reception was 24 yards (2 receptions, 25 yards, 1 TD) in the Lions' 34-20 win over the Packers, clearing the over 18 yards (ESPN box score). (Christian Watson longest reception: 24 yards)
Tyreek Hill over 6.5 receptions
“So my favorite bet with him is over six and a half receptions. That's a plus money right now.”
70-20 — Tyreek Hill caught 9 passes for 157 yards and a TD as the Dolphins routed the Broncos 70-20; 9 receptions clears the over 6.5 line (ESPN box score). (Tyreek Hill: 9 receptions, 157 yards)
Chicago Bears under 6.5 regular-season wins
“I am fully in on just continuously like you said you know kicking them where they're down so I'm banging some unders here on under six and a half too”
The Bears finished the 2023 regular season 7-10, exceeding the 6.5-win total, so the under lost (ESPN 2023 NFL standings). (Chicago Bears 2023 regular-season record: 7-10 (7 wins))
Zach Wilson under 177.5 passing yards
“Yeah, Zach Wilson's prop was lined at 177.5 passing yards, and I still think it's too high. I'm hitting the under on that”
DAL 30, NYJ 10 — Zach Wilson passed for 170 yards (12-of-27, 1 TD, 3 INT) as the Cowboys beat the Jets 30-10, under the 177.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Zach Wilson: 170 passing yards (12/27, 1 TD, 3 INT))
Gabe Davis to have the most receiving yards in NFL Week 2
“Gabriel Davis, alternate overs, I think is an interesting one here. I played him to have the most receiving yards of the week.”
Gabe Davis had 92 receiving yards in Buffalo's 38-10 win over Las Vegas in Week 2 (ESPN box score), well short of Mike Evans' league-leading 171 receiving yards that week (ESPN Week 2 weekly leaders), so Davis was not the NFL's Week 2 receiving-yards leader. (Gabe Davis: 92 receiving yards in Week 2; Mike Evans led the NFL in Week 2 with 171 receiving yards)
Calvin Ridley 1,500+ receiving yards 1500 (+2000) · DraftKings
“So I played 1,500-plus yards, and that's like 20-1 on draft teams”
Calvin Ridley finished the 2023 regular season with 76 catches for 1,016 receiving yards (NFL.com career stats), well under the 1,500-yard line. (Calvin Ridley 2023: 1,016 receiving yards)
Calvin Ridley 1,250+ receiving yards 1250 · FanDuel
“plus 1,250-plus yards on FanDuel as well.”
Calvin Ridley finished the 2023 regular season with 1,016 receiving yards (NFL.com career stats), under the 1,250-yard line. (Calvin Ridley 2023: 1,016 receiving yards)