The Lab
Studies from the available odds archive. Each report identifies its evidence, comparison group and limitations. Coverage varies by show, league and period.
Evidence coverage · Line shopping · Book comparisons · Movement · Polymarket
What is line shopping worth?
Compare the best available price with the median across legal US books carried by the source. A larger payout at the same line is a price difference; it does not by itself establish positive expected value.
8,475 events contributed at least one qualifying side. Each side needs three books. We select the latest pregame snapshot within 15 minutes of the start and require known quote updates within that same window. Changed kickoff times are excluded. Data through 2026-09-28.
| League / market | Sides | Extra ML payout | ≥½-point better line | Average line edge | Extra payout at same line / n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB / h2h | 1438 | 1.90% | — | — | — / 0 |
| MLB / spreads | 464 | — | 17.0% | 0.21 pt | 2.08% / 458 |
| MLB / totals | 810 | — | 21.0% | 0.11 pt | 1.70% / 796 |
| NBA / h2h | 484 | 2.53% | — | — | — / 0 |
| NBA / spreads | 1168 | — | 45.0% | 0.27 pt | 1.14% / 1058 |
| NBA / totals | 460 | — | 61.0% | 0.42 pt | 0.79% / 372 |
| CBB / h2h | 1996 | 3.24% | — | — | — / 0 |
| CBB / spreads | 8208 | — | 50.0% | 0.32 pt | 1.00% / 7814 |
| CBB / totals | 2994 | — | 59.0% | 0.44 pt | 0.82% / 2704 |
| CFB / h2h | 1154 | 3.90% | — | — | — / 0 |
| CFB / spreads | 2090 | — | 54.0% | 0.45 pt | 1.04% / 1910 |
| CFB / totals | 972 | — | 57.0% | 0.53 pt | 0.85% / 836 |
| NFL / h2h | 680 | 2.87% | — | — | — / 0 |
| NFL / spreads | 1062 | — | 43.0% | 0.47 pt | 1.69% / 1046 |
| NFL / totals | 648 | — | 50.0% | 0.68 pt | 1.23% / 630 |
| NHL / h2h | 1150 | 2.24% | — | — | — / 0 |
| NHL / spreads | 258 | — | 12.0% | 0.22 pt | 2.15% / 252 |
| NHL / totals | 760 | — | 27.0% | 0.14 pt | 1.77% / 754 |
Books offering the best moneyline payout
- FanDuel: 1,348 sides
- Caesars: 1,121 sides
- DraftKings: 1,001 sides
- BetRivers: 659 sides
- BetMGM: 647 sides
- WynnBET: 527 sides
- SuperBook: 398 sides
- SugarHouse: 372 sides
Counts are sides, not independent games. A tied best price is assigned to the first book in deterministic archive order. Book availability varies by era; these counts are not a ranking of current services.
Sides within a game are related. The archive favors days with tracked picks and is not a random sample of all betting markets.
Does the choice of bookmaker change the result?
Recompute CLV against consensus, DraftKings and FanDuel on a common cohort of 2,772 picks. All three prices must be available in the same snapshot with known updates within 15 minutes of kickoff. This study's consensus uses the legal US book set; pick cards may use a stated book, house book or consensus fallback.
Beat rate is beat ÷ (beat + chased). The eligible picks are identical across columns; non-flat denominators can differ because one book's price may be unchanged. A high rate alone is not proof of forecasting skill.
| Personality | Common picks | Consensus / non-flat n | DraftKings / non-flat n | FanDuel / non-flat n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Femi Abebefe | 181 | 70.4% · 125 | 70.5% · 122 | 69.8% · 129 |
| Matt Perrault | 576 | 69.5% · 420 | 67.6% · 404 | 67.2% · 411 |
| Simon Hunter | 191 | 61.8% · 144 | 58.1% · 148 | 57.8% · 135 |
| Lee Sterling | 426 | 61.7% · 311 | 60.4% · 298 | 59.2% · 306 |
| Nick Kostos | 205 | 61.5% · 130 | 59.5% · 131 | 61.4% · 132 |
Minimum 100 non-flat consensus observations per personality. Repeated picks on the same game are related. Props and parlays are excluded. Data through 2026-09-28. Read the measured differences above; there is no assumed agreement between books.
Market movement on games with and without a matched pick
Compare observations 2–4 hours before kickoff with quotes in the final 15 minutes. Opening observations are chosen nearest three hours before kickoff, and pairs must be at least two hours apart. For each market, both groups must have usable pairs on the same league/date slate.
“No matched pick” includes games whose picks could not be joined to an event; it does not prove no show picked them. This is a descriptive comparison of movement, not evidence that shows caused movement or chose games before it happened.
| League / group | Games | Spread movement / n | Total movement / n | ML payout movement / n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Cup / matched pick | 0 | — / 0 | — / 0 | — / 0 |
| World Cup / no matched pick | 0 | — / 0 | — / 0 | — / 0 |
| MLB / matched pick | 24 | — / 5 | — / 11 | — / 22 |
| MLB / no matched pick | 24 | — / 5 | — / 9 | — / 22 |
| NBA / matched pick | 10 | — / 10 | — / 0 | — / 1 |
| NBA / no matched pick | 8 | — / 8 | — / 0 | — / 1 |
| CBB / matched pick | 39 | 0.36 pt / 34 | — / 8 | — / 11 |
| CBB / no matched pick | 116 | 0.45 pt / 90 | 0.53 pt / 31 | 4.34% / 38 |
| CFB / matched pick | 107 | 0.34 pt / 105 | 0.46 pt / 41 | 1.55% / 54 |
| CFB / no matched pick | 306 | 0.41 pt / 296 | 0.42 pt / 104 | 1.58% / 149 |
| NFL / matched pick | 161 | 0.36 pt / 161 | 0.25 pt / 118 | 2.05% / 113 |
| NFL / no matched pick | 43 | 0.40 pt / 43 | 0.39 pt / 33 | — / 28 |
| NHL / matched pick | 3 | — / 2 | — / 0 | — / 3 |
| NHL / no matched pick | 2 | — / 1 | — / 0 | — / 2 |
| WNBA / matched pick | 0 | — / 0 | — / 0 | — / 0 |
| WNBA / no matched pick | 0 | — / 0 | — / 0 | — / 0 |
Absolute movement of consensus home spreads, totals and decimal moneyline payouts; three books required at each endpoint. Each market needs 30 usable pairs to display a mean; a dash marks an insufficient sample, with its count retained. Book composition may change between endpoints. Matched dates do not guarantee identical observation times or eliminate selection bias. Data through 2026-09-28.
Polymarket evidence
September 2026 sample: 19 of 20 explicitly priced picks have matching histories—14 futures and 5 game picks across 4 distinct game contracts. Another 8 venue-labeled picks have comparison-only histories. Sponsorship alone does not establish a venue or a contract.
Prices below come from the provider's historical series; they are not asserted executable bids or asks. Fees and liquidity are not included. On-air entry probabilities are retained, but their exact quote times are unknown. These observations never enter sportsbook CLV aggregates.
Quoted entry → last pregame price
| Pick / contract | Quoted entry | Pregame price | Movement | Observed (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers +3.5 2026-09-08 · Panthers · market 3340090 | 55.0% | 55.5% | +0.5 pp | 2026-09-13 16:59 |
| Miami Dolphins +3.5 2026-09-10 · Dolphins · market 3339539 | 45.0% | 54.5% | +9.5 pp | 2026-09-13 20:24 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 2026-09-15 · Steelers · market 3517137 | 50.0% | 53.5% | +3.5 pp | 2026-09-20 16:59 |
| Indianapolis Colts +6.5 2026-09-17 · Colts · market 3516972 | 50.0% | 53.5% | +3.5 pp | 2026-09-21 00:19 |
| Indianapolis Colts +6.5 2026-09-17 · Colts · market 3516972 | 50.0% | 53.5% | +3.5 pp | 2026-09-21 00:19 |
Futures: interim observations
| Pick / contract | Quoted entry | Interim price | Movement | Observed (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens to win AFC North 2026-09-04 · Yes · market 1447918 | 47.0% | 52.5% | +5.5 pp | 2026-09-28 22:04 |
| Kansas City Chiefs to win AFC West 2026-09-04 · Yes · market 1447946 | 36.0% | 57.5% | +21.5 pp | 2026-09-28 22:04 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win NFC South 2026-09-04 · Yes · market 1448016 | 35.0% | 15.5% | -19.5 pp | 2026-09-28 22:04 |
| Seattle Seahawks to win NFC West 2026-09-04 · Yes · market 1448025 | 35.0% | 30.0% | -5.0 pp | 2026-09-28 22:04 |
| Philadelphia Eagles to make playoffs 2026-09-04 · Yes · market 2155364 | 57.0% | 82.0% | +25.0 pp | 2026-09-28 22:04 |
| Denver Broncos to make playoffs 2026-09-04 · Yes · market 2155348 | 57.0% | 61.0% | +4.0 pp | 2026-09-28 22:04 |
| Minnesota Vikings to miss playoffs 2026-09-04 · No · market 2155359 | 60.0% | 30.0% | -30.0 pp | 2026-09-28 22:04 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers to miss playoffs 2026-09-04 · No · market 2155365 | 63.0% | 58.5% | -4.5 pp | 2026-09-28 22:04 |
| San Francisco 49ers to miss playoffs 2026-09-04 · No · market 2155366 | 44.0% | 20.5% | -23.5 pp | 2026-09-28 22:04 |
| Green Bay Packers to miss playoffs 2026-09-04 · No · market 2155350 | 37.0% | 73.5% | +36.5 pp | 2026-09-28 22:04 |
| Los Angeles Chargers to miss playoffs 2026-09-04 · No · market 2155356 | 38.0% | 86.5% | +48.5 pp | 2026-09-28 22:04 |
| Cincinnati Bengals to miss playoffs 2026-09-04 · No · market 2155345 | 36.0% | 26.5% | -9.5 pp | 2026-09-28 22:04 |
| Philadelphia Eagles to win NFC 2026-09-04 · Yes · market 1361056 | 12.0% | 12.0% | +0.1 pp | 2026-09-28 22:04 |
| Seattle Seahawks to win NFC 2026-09-04 · Yes · market 1361069 | 16.0% | 11.5% | -4.5 pp | 2026-09-28 22:04 |
Interim movement as of the displayed dates, not a final closing price or settlement. These archived observations do not update automatically.
Venue-labeled picks without an entry probability
| Pick / contract | Quoted entry | Pregame price | Movement | Observed (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants +3.5 2026-09-10 · Giants · market 3340143 | — | 53.5% | — | 2026-09-14 00:19 |
| New Orleans Saints +7.5 2026-09-11 · Saints · market 3340020 | — | 55.5% | — | 2026-09-13 16:59 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 2026-09-11 · Buccaneers · market 3340062 | — | 49.5% | — | 2026-09-13 16:59 |
| Houston Texans +1.5 2026-09-11 · Texans · market 3339973 | — | 51.5% | — | 2026-09-13 16:59 |
| Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 2026-09-11 · Eagles · market 3920305 | — | 51.5% | — | 2026-09-13 20:24 |
| Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 2026-09-11 · Chiefs · market 3340121 | — | 47.5% | — | 2026-09-15 00:14 |
| Under 43.5 2026-09-14 · Under · market 3340128 | — | 54.5% | — | 2026-09-15 00:14 |
| Milwaukee Brewers 2026-09-16 · Milwaukee Brewers · market 4437674 | — | 55.5% | — | 2026-09-16 22:39 |
No on-air probability was established. No entry price or numerical CLV is inferred from the history.
Comparison with equivalent sportsbook lines
Exact half-point lines, aligned to pregame observations. Sportsbook probabilities remove margin proportionally from paired sides. This selected sample includes available US and offshore books; it does not establish an executable advantage.
| Pick | Books | Polymarket minus median fair probability | Timing note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Panthers +3.5 | 7 | +1.1 pp | Kickoffs differed by 5 min; earlier cutoff used |
| Miami Dolphins +3.5 | 7 | +1.2 pp | Aligned kickoff |
| Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 | 7 | +1.7 pp | Kickoffs differed by 5 min; earlier cutoff used |
| Indianapolis Colts +6.5 | 6 | +1.0 pp | Aligned kickoff |
| Indianapolis Colts +6.5 | 6 | +1.0 pp | Aligned kickoff |
Unavailable: the exact Caleb Williams 3+ passing TD and 300+ passing yards combination. Separate marginal props cannot replace it. Five additional venue-labeled picks lack an exact match; unnamed prediction-market quotes were not assigned to Polymarket.