Host · 689-802-30 on settled picks
| League | spread | futures | total | moneyline | prop | parlay | other | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 510-494-3% | 42-128-8% | 71-55+8% | 29-34-12% | 17-38-40% | 1-26-94% | 3-1 | 673-776-6% |
| NBA | 3-1 | 4-10-29% | — | 0-1 | 1-0 | — | — | 8-12-12% |
| CFB | 1-2 | 0-3 | 1-0 | 0-2 | — | — | — | 2-7-58% |
| Other | — | 4-2+45% | — | — | — | — | — | 4-2+45% |
“[24:57] could be a sexy name to throw a bet on so um yeah win total I'll take their over um it's it's moved [25:04] around a little bit it's now a plus number to the over nine and a half which is interesting to me [25:08] it's minus 135 to the under. [25:12] I'll take that plus number on them, right?”
“[31:07] If I've made any bets, I've seen nothing in division. [31:10] I bet they're under. [31:11] I don't really bet that many unders. [31:13] This is when I went right to the window. [31:15] because it was at a plus number. Now it's moving more towards a minus 110, minus 120 toward the [31:20] under. So I would be patient because professional bettors can keep coming in. Maybe I'll get back [31:25] to that plus number. But as we sit here right now, I just, I don't, I don't know. I can't see [31:32] their, uh, their odds moving up too much, right? I can never see them getting to eight wins. I can [31:36] never see them getting to six and a half. So it feels like the books are going to hold them right [31:40] here at seven and a half win total seven and a half is the win total uh it's so interesting”
“[43:57] So I have to make a bet for this division, which I do. [43:59] I am betting Minnesota. [44:01] I'm betting them divisional odds. [44:02] But like I said, there's going to be a point I'm hoping in December where I can take a position on either the Bears or the Lions just because I am worried just to see what Kyler does towards the end. [44:13] Right. [44:13] I've never seen him win a division coming from such a tough division he came from. [44:17] So it's all there. [44:19] You know, the best they say, [44:21] Kyle is the best athlete ever to play football. [44:23] Chad, we'll, [44:24] we'll find out pretty quick if you can keep that alive. [44:26] Cause it's all on him. [44:28] Like there's going to be no excuses here. [44:30] They, they literally given him a month here, right? [44:32] They announced it early him as their starter to learn this offense. [44:36] So we're not going to be blaming KOC. [44:38] I tell you that much, [44:39] we're going to end up billing the Kyler if they don't succeed this year. [44:42] Yeah. [44:42] But we're also entirely investing in our belief in KOC because we've seen him do it with multiple quarterbacks now. [44:54] We've seen him do it with Kirk Cousins. [44:55] We've seen him do it with Sam Darnold. [44:56] We saw other guys go from that scenario to being successful like Daniel Jones. [45:02] So we're really investing that Kevin O'Connell is a bit of a quarterback whisperer here and can turn Kyler Murray into what these other guys became when they moved down from the Vikings or were with the Vikings. [45:17] Five to one, if we were drafting, I've enjoyed when we're drafting, we've got the Vikings at five to one to win the division, 22 to one to win the conference. [45:31] if there's a lot of you're a sick dog you're betting that job i don't hate it i love the idea”
“[12:08] win a ring he i love that he went on this did this with me first yeah um 11 and a half win total [12:14] chad and minus 150 to the under so it's a pricey but positive number and it's a bet on lamar so [12:22] you're literally getting a plus number right now because they'll hit 12 wins if lamar stays healthy [12:25] derrick henry stays healthy zay flowers is out there got this wide receiver this kid named lane [12:31] i don't know if you've heard about him this this young kid for them like looks like they really [12:35] nailed it in the draft. [12:38] If they can come in there with [12:39] Mitter defensively, changing this defense, [12:41] which I think he will. I think he's a great defensive [12:43] mind. Candidate for coach of the year. [12:46] Yeah, it feels like an easy bet [12:47] right now to take a plus number at the over. [12:49] I bet their win total over.”
“[29:19] Yeah, totally. [29:20] He had that crazy run. [29:21] So the hype can't be any higher for me. [29:26] Like I bet them at 25-1 Super Bowl odds.”
“[14:38] they were in third place it's an easier schedule how do you not throw a bet on this Chiefs team [14:45] it's just a minus 10 and a half minus 150 to the owner okay I'm getting a positive number that I'm [14:52] getting a plus number taking the over I'm gonna bet Mahomes get 11 wins so you know the books yes [14:58] we could be walking right into it. [15:00] I have them projected 11 and a half points. [15:02] I have them a full game over this win total. [15:05] They're going to, [15:06] people are going to figure out pretty quick. [15:06] There's two teams that really like this division. [15:09] The chiefs are one of them. [15:09] It's just, [15:10] you're betting on my homes. [15:11] You're betting on Kenneth Walker, [15:12] this run game, [15:13] really changing things. [15:14] And, [15:14] you know, [15:15] again, [15:16] me and Chad are the biggest fantasy guys. [15:17] Cyrus Allen, [15:19] he's going to be a name. [15:20] The general public is going to learn. [15:21] This is a wide receiver that just looks the part right now for this team. [15:24] So where are these missing time? [15:26] Rice may missing time for injury. [15:27] they might have found a stud in this past draft and that's that's what Mahomes is going to do [15:32] right he's going to find a guy if this guy could stay healthy he's going to become Mahomes's guy [15:36] he just cannot keep going through Travis Kelsey who's what you're 30 36 years old now so I just [15:42] look at this team as people are kind of like this might be an in-between year I feel like last year [15:47] was that I feel like last year was the year from hell the year before they were 15-1 on one score [15:51] games last year they were one in 10 chat and one score games and he got it so yeah like i think [15:58] we're in unison here where it's like it's the mahomes factor he he's not calculable to most [16:02] people's models it's going to skew things where well if he gets 12 or 13 wins no i would not be [16:08] shocked but it's like my model can't predict those one score type of games what we're looking at is [16:13] just a law of averages here so to me this just feels like a team that you know at worst case [16:19] my homes goes eight and five and one score games you just we just don't see him having an insanely [16:24] horrible losing record last year was a year from hell me and chad i feel like we're in the same [16:29] unison as we usually fade those type of seasons the next year you have a good quarterback with a [16:34] good scheme a good head coach and a good organization you always bounce always been on the bounce back [16:39] so yeah i i don't know if i'm gonna go heavy on their division odds like i have in the previous [16:43] years dad but uh definitely taking that over right now at a plus number plus 170 to win the division [16:49] plus 650 to win the conference 13 to one to win the super bowl you know it's been years since the”
“[34:20] I'm still going to, [34:21] I'm still going to bet the chiefs just because that's to me, [34:23] that's good. [34:24] Which one? [34:25] 13 to one? [34:28] Yeah. [34:29] I bet my home Superbowl. [34:30] It's just because you know what, [34:31] you know what, [34:32] Anything I'm going to get 10-1 or better on Mahomes, I'm going to take that bet.”
“[35:20] I really feel like they should be tied with the Chiefs at the top of this division. [35:24] I get what pros are saying here, that they're like, oh, we're built in the regression. [35:27] no doubt we're all doing the same thing but at nine and a half wins at minus 120 chad i mean come [35:34] on i think we gotta bet they're over win total um it's just if bonex is healthy if this team plays [35:42] the way we think they should play it's not a guarantee of 10 wins but pretty damn close to it [35:47] like sean payton is one of the best coaches in this league and you give them this much talent [35:52] on this deep of a team if they can just stay healthy there's no doubt they'll be in the [35:57] playoffs and even maybe potentially win this division so um yeah I felt like again every [36:02] division has an easy bet this one felt like the easy bet to me just take their over win total [36:06] you don't have to bet any other ones you can stay away from homes with injuries if you want”
“[22:41] Is this not the easiest bet in this division, taking their over win total? [22:44] Nine and a half? [22:45] in what world do they does this do they not get the 10 wins if shanahan is alive [22:49] if purdy survives the whole season this is a 10 win team we've seen it time and time again even [22:54] when they have all the 12 win team when when when they had nobody yeah like last year mac jones i [23:00] said this i said this on the other shows sorry to interrupt you but like mac jones was one of the [23:06] only quarterbacks in the nfl quality with qualified number of passes who was top 10 in drop back per [23:12] EPA and an EPA per drop back and a success rate. [23:18] The other guy, Brock Purdy. [23:20] Like, that's how good Kyle Shanahan is at this when he's got no receivers. [23:25] Christian McCaffrey having a subpar year, even though he was comeback player of the year. [23:31] No defense. [23:33] And these guys continue to pull magic out of their freaking hats. [23:38] It's ridiculous. [23:39] us as a McCaffrey owner from last year Chad he was like a juggernaut I think he was number three [23:44] best fantasy player in all of all fantasy football so subpar of year to you juggernaut year to me I [23:49] don't know a little bit but I I took a ton of heat last year when I said that the Shanahan I [23:57] know in the back of mind is like if I could trade Purdue right now for two first round picks [24:01] and just have Mac Jones be my starter I pay him on a discount that's a better future for the 49ers [24:07] but you know Purdy is their guy I get it but it's just my mentality right away when we saw [24:12] Mac Jones play was I think you just said it there Chad there wasn't that big of a drop-off like he [24:17] stepped right into that offense and the fact that he came back right they could have traded him they [24:21] had offers I think um I forget and that wasn't Shepard someone said they had like an offer for [24:26] a third or a fourth and they wanted a first or a second or something like that for Mac like [24:30] they basically viewed him as such a good piece to their offense and so cheap they didn't want to [24:34] move him unless the price is right so i know it's after this year he's a free agent so obviously [24:39] they weren't able to resign him but to me that's a big deal that's not talked about enough the fact [24:43] that mac did come back right where purdy has had bad injury luck yeah you have a guy that can step [24:49] in in this division and still win you games that's a huge deal i mean mac jones we all remember [24:54] beating though that rams team was a thursday night football that was incredible like he was [24:58] tearing them up that rams defense so we know the talent [25:02] Was there going to be a drop-off from Salah leaving? [25:04] Of course, right? [25:04] We talked about it last year. [25:05] Their defense was incredibly young. [25:07] They had a couple games where they just could not get anything going defensively. [25:11] Offense at the end of the season kind of failed them, right? [25:13] They had injuries, like Chad was talking about, the offensive line. [25:16] It just kind of petered out at the end of the season. [25:19] It's kind of the same thing here where they have the third-place schedule in their division, right? [25:23] They have an easier schedule, obviously, than the Rams in Seattle. [25:26] You expect them to be healthier than they were last season, just talking about injury luck. [25:29] And, you know, I keep looking at this team. [25:32] I know that Ayuk is a big deal losing him offensively, [25:34] but you would think Mike Evans stepping in, [25:37] that's such a huge upgrade. [25:38] Like they went from having a zero at the position [25:40] because Ayuk wouldn't play to now, you know, [25:42] Ricky's not your number one. [25:43] The fact you could have Mike Evans be your number one now, [25:45] it only might be for six, seven games [25:47] because he also keeps having hamstring injuries [25:49] and other things like that. [25:51] He's such a professional. [25:52] You have to think how much he's going to help the guys in practice, [25:54] everything like that. [25:54] That's such a big deal to me. [25:56] Don't forget, don't forget they also added Christian Kirk. [25:59] And that's what's interesting to me is they recognize they've got huge wide receiver holes to fill because Ricky Pearsall, he couldn't get on the field last year either. [26:11] And he was had a hard time being on the field his, you know, I think his rookie year as well. [26:17] So they need help at the receiver position. [26:21] It is entirely about the defense. [26:24] Like, what are they going to do with the collection of players that they have? [26:28] We talk about Steve Spagnuolo and what he's been able to do with the Chiefs and how he's performed wonders with a defense that last year did not have its full arsenal. [26:41] Same with the Niners. [26:43] They've gone all in on drafting to improve their defense, and this is going to be the year where they kind of have to prove it. [26:49] And I actually had them closer to plus 200 for this division. [26:52] So the fact that they're plus 300, I have a couple of small bets I've done with them, with the Saints, who are plus 250. [26:59] Put them parlay together, you get crazy good numbers. [27:02] There is a world where this team, just like last year, it comes in the final two, three weeks, you can hedge out of it. [27:08] And that's what's so fun about this division. [27:10] It's like, Seattle, yes, they're a juggernaut. [27:13] The Rams are a juggernaut. [27:14] We know the deal, Chad. [27:15] Once the season starts, you're going to throw all that preseason hype out. [27:18] Once the games start, things get tight. [27:20] These teams get tight. [27:20] They're all an injury away from their whole season's collapsing. [27:23] So it's not that far off they want to take a position on the 49ers team. [27:27] They're not as far behind the Rams or Seattle as the public perceives them to be right now. [27:31] So obviously Shanahan spent all offseason watching that embarrassment game against Seattle. [27:38] Remember Seattle shut them out two weeks ago. [27:40] Not two weeks in a row, but two games in a row, right? [27:42] They shut them out. [27:44] 49ers went to Philadelphia, beat the Eagles in the playoffs, then went to Seattle and got shut out again. [27:48] And I remember Shannon just talking about how he went into a dark hole and watch that tape over and over again. [27:53] Just see how basically I'm masterminded by McDaniels. [27:57] So McDonald's. [27:58] So I look at this team where, you know, it's all there in front of them. [28:03] They have the talent. [28:03] It's all about the health at that number plus 300 for this division. [28:07] Chad, I have to put a little bit off. [28:09] You want to know my bigger bet, though? [28:10] It is on their win total. [28:11] I just I cannot see them not getting a 10 or 11 wins.”
“[44:58] I am tempted here, plus 800, to win the division. [45:01] I'm not going to lie. [45:02] I did place a little bet.”
“[50:38] That's why I threw a little on the plus 800. [50:40] I bet Houston at plus 120 didn't touch the Jaguars, [50:44] didn't touch the Colts. [50:44] I put a little bet on this Tennessee team.”
“[29:58] Yeah, this is my biggest bet by far in this division is on the plus 270, plus 260, [30:04] whatever you can find on this team to win this division.”
“but them and the Ravens they're not that much different and the fact that the Ravens are the number one favorite to be the number one seed and the Bengals are down here 11-1 my model has them literally neck and neck so just going based off values I have them both at plus 600 that means I'm getting a free plus 500 right now on this Bengals team so like again I'm not the biggest Bengals believer my model jumps out to that it's like I have to take notice and say okay I might be a little too hard on Joe Burrow and Zach Taylor, this is good. This is a good number. This is something I need to bet. So I did bet at 12 to one. I've been at 11 to one. I would keep taking it until it drops down to below 10 to one. I think it's a good value right now on this Bengals team.”
“All right. So our Simon says presented by hard rock bets, Eagles to beat the chiefs in the super bowl at a hundred to one. Our Chad's Choice, presented by Hard Rock Bet, New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs at plus 200.”
“their respected conferences so um right there jumped out if you want to do the flip side the chiefs to beat the eagles same thing at hard rock 100 101 we just talked about the bangles i like people know i like betting repeat super bowls and it happens it just i mean it sounds crazy but every year it happens patriots seahawks repeat super bowl matchup like these things that the nfl is so cyclical, it's so repeatable. Since I had Bengals to beat the Rams, 100-1. Again, I'm looking at 101 bets.”
“They are three and a half point favorites at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And the Bucs are one of those teams last year that just, we couldn't get the right read on them. We were constantly feeling like, when are they going to become in the second half of the year We kept waiting for them to be the team they were in the first half of the year And they couldn quite get over the top Too many injuries things caught up with them I don know that I got enough faith to bet the Bengals who have just historically been one of those teams that let you down, as three and a half point home favorites in week one on the road against the Buccaneers. Simon says, give me the Bucs plus three and a half. I want to play a game Simon says I cannot believe this number is still up that's how much I've been betting it”
“Because the Bears are on the road playing the Carolina Panthers. Bears minus two and a half. So what are we going to do here? Classic rock in a hard place, hard rock, bet of the week. Because, of course, I want to at least be on the side of the Bears as short road favorites. But I know the right side is Carolina. We are going to be fading the Bears all season long. I feel like going into week one, Dave Canales is a really good coach. Obviously, I believe in Ben Johnson. But this is the spot where we have backed Bryce Young again and again and again. You talk about betting Baker as a dog, Bryce Young as a dog in this spot since the middle of two seasons ago, 2024. He's been earning. You got to take the Panthers. I guess I got to say, you got to take the Panthers. I want to rock! Got to take the Panthers. Could you believe the total of this game, though? 44 and a half? Yeah. Feels incredibly low. For two offenses, I think they're going to move the ball. Yes. That are very suspect to me. Yes. I know the Bears are trying to improve the defense, but they've also lost a couple of key pieces. So I know they're going to be healthier, obviously, than last year. But, yeah, I'm right there with the Panthers. The number line, I'm hoping that gets the three because that's where I'm going to be most comfortable with the Panthers just because what we've talked a little bit about, like, if Ben Johnson is that dude and Caleb's that dude, this is the start to the party, right? This is the type of game they come out and they whoop on a bad Carolina Panthers defense that, you know, their strength, I guess you could say, is partially in their D-line. but you should be able to combat that with what they've done up front with this bears team that's like a sneakily kind of kind of a strength for this team in some aspects as well so um i love this number by the book because it just it tempting both sides Like I can see why people are coming in the Bears and I think that's why you're making the hard rock better than we because it is. It's a really hard spot to pick. But if I have to pick a side, yeah, I'm going to take Panthers as a dog here.”
“the lions are a six and a half point favorite there is very clearly a consensus in the betting community that the lions are a team that should rebound they drafted well they have been historically unhealthy for two seasons in a row, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Dan Campbell, we love as a coach. The expectations are they will improve. Until last year, the latter half of last year, they were always very good at covering very big numbers. And on the flip side, we got a real taste of what Tyler Shuck can do and what Kellen Moore can do, and they obviously believe in Tyler Shuck for this year. They're not going in thinking, okay, we're going to get Arch Manning. And so do you look at this and think six and a half is a big number for the Saints, for the Lions to cover? Or is it the exact right spot to bet the Saints? If we had our contest lines, the Jags would be in, the Bucs would be in, and this game on Detroit lines would be a lock to be i'm so glad you said that because because you just told me i was wrong about the falcons and the steelers i was nervous to go all in on the lions but it just makes no sense to me of course the lions are going to be in this yeah like no that game is not comparable this one that atlanta game i don't really care about this game i care about this is not a game i'm betting heavy and hard rock i've literally had my guys in florida who are on vacation going to the books for me because it's like there's not too many six and a halfs out there so thank you hard rock for giving us this lovely number”
“this is easy easy bet houston plus one and a half you have to pick this every time”
“I believe we're also going to be in alignment in the New York Jets-Tennessee Titans game where the Tennessee Titans are short home favorites at minus two and a half against the New York Jets. It's been two seasons of us not getting it timed right with the Tennessee Titans. I think this is the season we do it. And there is too much hype and excitement over the New York Jets right now for zero reason. They had a good draft on paper. But we don't know who the quarterback is going to be. meaning you know geno smith circa 2014 is going to come back and be the new york jets quarterback we do like robert sala we do like cam ward we do like the fact they drafted in ways to support him Short number give me the Tennessee Titans”
“So I'm right there with you, Chet. I couldn't believe it's not just one or two people, right? It's multiple people now are trying to give this Giants team some credence and some hype. And I already told you where I'm at. It's one of my favorite unders. So I already hit it at seven and a half.”
“Washington, seven and a half. I'd go with the over there. I'd go with the over because I think they're going to get an easier schedule. Daniels is back for a full season. And their defense can only get better. And they know what the issues are. So I would like the over there. I'm taking the under. I get why you're taking the over, though. But to me, I think it's priced right. I'm just taking the under just because, once again, as much as I like Daniels,”
“Dallas Cowboys, eight and a half. I'll bite. I'm a sucker. I'll take the over.”
“Indy, eight and a half. I'm going under here. Yeah. What is this number? It's too big. Number. Yeah. We don't even know when Daniel Jones is going to be playing. So are we saying that? do you remember what he did he tore his achilles right he tore his achilles yeah that's like and he tore his achilles midway through the year it's not like he tore his achilles in september so that like we've seen great quarterbacks miss the full year for that um in a division with houston jackson on a tennessee team we think it's gonna be better so chad chad's i think we're in alignment you're like the under right yes as i said under yeah so to me like this and the giants since you're two unders, I've been betting pretty heavily.”
“Giants seven and a half. that feels like a Harbaugh bounce, right? Like there's no other reason to be betting on the Giants at seven and a half if other than you think they are just going to completely revamp their culture because of what John Harbaugh is going to bring to that team. This is like one of my favorite under bets. And I know some pros that have been hammering this over.”
“Denver, nine and a half. I'll take the over. We don't know what's going to be happening with Kansas City yet. And when Patrick Mahomes is going to come back, the Chargers are... could be 15-2. They could be 9-8. You never know with that team. I like what their defense is. They just added Jalen Waddell. We know Bo Nix will be back. I think that Sean Payton is a good enough coach that a 10-7 team with this talent is not at all inconceivable to me. I'd rather be betting the over on this team than the under. Yeah, and just like the Bills, this is one of my bigger, bigger bets I've made before this offseason, I'm taking their over.”
“Matt Mitchell. Here we'll go. Buffalo bills minus 10 and a half. One, two, three. Oh, uh, uh, this is, this feels like an easy, easy over for me. Uh, Josh Allen. I don't care who the new head coach is. I like Joe Brady. I think he'll be able to make that offensive work, what he's done these last couple of years, leaning more into the run, protecting the ball more with Josh. I love it all. I mean, to me, the question has always been on the defense, and I don't see it as a negative getting rid of, you know, what I view it as a... a mid-level coach in the way he especially coached the defense now. And, you know, Sean McDermott had his time. And I do think here this is a low total where if they still had him, this is probably 11 and a half. Maybe the public feels more confident about it. I'm the other way. It feels like last year was a down year for that Bills team. I think this is way, way over. So I've hit this quite a little bit, Chad.”
“Detroit, 10 and a half, minus 135 to the over, plus 110 to the under. This is a tricky one. Detroit, 10 and a half. Let me think about it. One, two, three, under. Yeah, this is, again, just like the Bills, this is my second biggest bet I've made in this offseason. Wow. And in the under. Yeah, I can't believe it. This feels like a line from the past. We talk all the time, football, your window closes pretty quick. And you can lie to yourself and say, well, they've had bad injury luck. That O-line is done. There is no saving that O-line. They've had guys retiring. They've had guys with a ton of injuries. They've not drafted right for the O-line. And we've seen if golf doesn't have an O-line, I mean, that's going to be a big problem. So to me, maybe your defense gets a little healthier. But in that division, I just think Green Bay is going to be better. I think the Bears, even though you can say they went way better than they should have been last year, they're going to build off that. This is going to be a year or two of Ben Johnson. So even with the questions you might have with the Vikings in the clear position, I think 10.5 is a pass line. So I know some pros who have actually liked this over, and they've been betting it. You can get this now at a plus number for the under. So a couple of different blocks, plus 120, plus 115. I really like this under on the Detroit team”
“It's time to start talking about NFL season futures. um super bowl 61 odds at hard rock bet right now the los angeles ramps the seattle seahawks the buffalo bills at plus 1100 uh the rams and the seahawks are both at plus 900 those are the shortest odds right now the ravens plus looks like 1300 packers plus 1400 eagles simon they're plus 1400 have you looked at any of these yet have you given any serious thought to these yet not really like i did put a single bet on the chiefs because i book did hang them at 15 to 1”
“morocco plays brazil right away they are right now plus 450 on hard rock to win that game against brazil i love that”
1-1 — Brazil and Morocco drew 1-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group C opener on June 13, 2026 (Vinicius Junior equalized in the 32nd minute for Brazil, Saibari scored for Morocco in the 21st); Morocco did not win outright, so the moneyline loses (ESPN match report).
“if you want to just play half a goal they're minus they're plus one plus 130 so if you want to take plus point half you know you're already up half a goal to start the game so if they tie you win on morocco”
1-1 — Brazil and Morocco drew 1-1 on June 13, 2026; Morocco +0.5 covers on the draw (ESPN match report).
“Simon, what's our big balls better the week? Anthony already said it. You kind of shoot my hand. I, I love Morocco. I really do. I don't think what happened four years ago was just a blimp. And I think Brazil is totally overrated. Like people are, I think I've seen some models have 75% chance of winning their group. so if you want to bet group c morocco i have no issue with that”
Brazil finished first in World Cup 2026 Group C on goal difference (+6 vs Morocco's +3), both teams level on 7 points; Morocco finished 2nd, not group winner (ESPN standings).
“this point nixon five plus 350 nixon six plus 210 nixon seven plus 550 spurs and six plus 700 Spurs in seven plus 550 Simon if you're making a serious bet exact winner and games what are you betting on right now this is just as a fan I think most professionals I know are still dug in pretty much on the Knicks I just I think Wemby's having a moment here I really do I think every game you team gaining confidence. Are we going to get that Wemby 40-point game tomorrow night? I don't know, but I just love the way it's spaced out where they have this game Wednesday and then it's another three-day break. If they play Saturday, it's another three-day break Tuesday. I don't know why. I think these things benefit this Spurs team. I look at this game and I just think, Wemby, this whole team, this whole Spurs team has taken us personality of that. People are saying they're playing dirty. This, to me, is playoff basketball. It's mental. It's physical. And that's what I want to see. Like, people are bitching about the refs. That was like – that's my dream scenario. That way the refs ref that game, where it's like we're letting them play. Like, we're letting these grown men play this game. Right? No eye gouges. Nothing dirty like that I mean the one Brunson play was dirty right It kind of hit the back of his head on the hardwood floor That stuff does freak me out a little bit But overall it like that the game right That why most guys aren six feet tall in this league right Steph Curry at 6'3", looks small for a reason. It's just these grown men, these big bodies flying around. So I'm flipping here to the Spurs. I think Spurs in seven feels like that's fun value for me to bet right now. So I'm going to take a little on that.”
94-90 — Knicks beat the Spurs 4-1 in the 2026 NBA Finals, clinching in Game 5 (94-90 on June 13); the Spurs did not win in 7 (ESPN box score).
“It just felt like he just looked so tired. Like, Cat just put his body into him and wear him down. The whole team did. The Knicks were just on him the whole game. So, I don't know where Jason's at. I feel like there's no value at this point in the series. Like, I really don't want to be betting the Spurs. I know that's where I said the value is. I'm a total agree with Jason. Like, they could easily be down 2-0. And now you've bet into two bad numbers if you've taken some. antonio and um i i to me that's not the position i think that calf position especially a hard rock 12 to 1 that's crazy good value like to me he should be closer to 7 to 1 8 to 1 so i'm gonna take that free free money around the books are giving out his mvp odds”
Jalen Brunson, not Karl-Anthony Towns, won 2026 NBA Finals MVP after averaging 32.6 ppg and scoring 45 points in the series-clinching Game 5 (Wikipedia, 2026 NBA Finals).
“We do have game two. Oklahoma City, six and a half, totals 215. Simon, are you buying into a zigzag for the Thunder to cover the same number that they tipped off at before game one? I put a small bet on the adjusted line. I took OKC like minus 13 and a half points.”
122-113 — Oklahoma City beat San Antonio 122-113 in Game 2 of the 2026 Western Conference Finals on May 20, a 9-point margin that falls short of the -13.5 spread (ESPN team schedule/box score).
“So, yeah, we're we'll get into I've taken a position on Jeremiah Love because I do think there's a lot of smokescreens being thrown around with his name right now. So, oh, that's interesting. Well, let's not. I have a whole tangent I want to go on about disconnected NFL owners who are billionaires and and translating that success into everything else. Because I just watched the jailblazers doc, the untold story on Netflix, and this guy, Bob Whitsitt, who was the GM. And we'll save that for another day because because the draft is tonight and I want to get right to it. So, Simon, what are the smokescreens that you believe are coming out about Jeremiah Love? I don't know if it's true about the whole Arizona thing, them taking them at three. Apparently, that's just bait. They're trying to bait teams to move up. And from what I hear from Tennessee is they love Sonny Stiles, which is, to me, the perfect linebacker for a solid guy. That just makes sense when you really break it down. So right now at Hard Rock, you can get over four and a half on him at plus 120.”
Jeremiyah Love was drafted No. 3 overall by the Arizona Cardinals in the 2026 NFL Draft (ESPN draft tracker); over 4.5 on his draft position loses.
“And that what I talking about talking about Ed Reed So Caleb Downs market that another guy I been up all night betting And we moved the number It was 10 It's now down to 9.5 is over under. I'm still hitting the under. And at Hard Rock right now, it's minus 110, the under 9.5.”
Caleb Downs was drafted No. 11 overall by the Dallas Cowboys in the 2026 NFL Draft (ESPN draft tracker); under 9.5 on his draft position loses.
“and being the number one, number two pick, but still being top five, I still think that's a realistic possibility. Maybe there's a little bit of value now. Maybe that's the betters. I was just looking at the odds as we're kind of discussing this, plus 350 what I'm looking at to be drafted top five, but I think the books are also telling us the odds of him being drafted top 10 are minus 300, so this is what it needs to say. A little drop, maybe a little drop. Yeah. I don't know. I would take the plus 350. Okay. Yeah. You know, why not? Take a fire. I don't mind it.”
Rueben Bain Jr. was not a top-5 pick; he went No. 15 overall to Tampa Bay in the 2026 NFL Draft (ESPN 2026 Draft round 1 tracker). (Pick No. 15 (Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Rueben Bain Jr., EDGE, Miami)
“here it's down to let's see the update line it's the over under now one and a half quarterbacks in the first round when derek said not to take it it was minus 250 to the over one and a half it is now down to minus 130 to the over one and a half chad and a lot of people that reached out and asked about why this movement happened and we can talk about all the lines that have moved honestly i can't believe it but peter schrager moves the market more than anyone else that puts mock drafts right now, Chad, which is crazy to think. But Peter Schrager is that locked in. And I think enough betters now respect his opinion enough that they do move off what he says. He did not have Ty Simpson in the first round. And that moved the market huge. Like it was, I think our last year I said it was minus 170 or minus 180 first round over one and a half quarterbacks. Like I said, now it's down to minus 130. He ended up putting Price, that second running back I told you about, He'd end up putting him at Seattle at the 32nd pick, Chad. So now what I gave out a plus 550 over one and a half running backs, it's now down to plus 400. Again, this is all Peter Schrager. Like Peter Schrager has totally moved the market. Why receivers? I believe he had six in the first round. Now that was plus 190. It's now down to plus 140, plus 135 over five and a half receivers. So like we talked last week about following these mock drafts. Peter Schrager put out his first mock. I don't believe he puts out another one until the day before the draft. You got to be on it. Like clearly this man is plugged in and the market is moving with him So yeah Derek with a Ty Simpsons call saying he doesn believe he a first rounder Like I said I agree with him I think he a second rounder I did not think the market would move the way it moved with him So I am tempted now, Chad. It's moved so much over one and a half. I'm tempted to do it. But if you want to deal with like Matt Mitchell's put in our chat, which is like betting these individual teams. I think that's really fun, too. I just because I put so much money, I'd rather play the safe market. And I'll probably just do the over one and a half, which at this point, minus 130. I got to do it. I've been waiting. I've been on the sideline, but I just think it's too tempting.”
Two quarterbacks were taken in round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft — Fernando Mendoza (No. 1) and Ty Simpson (No. 13) — clearing the over 1.5 (ESPN 2026 Draft round 1 tracker). (Round-1 QBs: Fernando Mendoza (pick 1), Ty Simpson (pick 13))
“This year, I already have a plus 180 bet on over five and a half receivers.”
Only 5 wide receivers were taken in round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft (Tate, Tyson, Lemon, Concepcion, Cooper Jr.), so the over 5.5 loses (ESPN 2026 Draft round 1 tracker). (Round-1 WRs: Carnell Tate (4), Jordyn Tyson (8), Makai Lemon (20), KC Concepcion (24), Omar Cooper Jr. (30))
“Simon, what about you? Yeah, this is the boring time, right? Either take the long shots or take the really juiced up lines, like over one and a half quarterbacks. I think it's minus 250, minus 225 in most books.”
2 quarterbacks were drafted in Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft, over the 1.5 line (ESPN draft tracker). (Round 1 QBs: Fernando Mendoza (Pick 1, Raiders), Ty Simpson (Pick 13, Rams) = 2 total.)
“Give me Iowa plus 110 at Hard Rock.”
Iowa 77, Nebraska 71 — Iowa beat Nebraska 77-71 in the Sweet 16; Iowa's moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“I'm definitely betting Wisconsin minus 10, minus 10.5 at Hard Rock. Now I'm minus 9.5. I love betting Big Ten schools. I think last year in round one, Big Ten started 8-0. It's just a great conference for basketball. They're just so well coached. This Wisconsin team, they're really good. If they have their A-plus game, they could easily win this game by 20. So I like the fact that, especially now that it's under 10, you can get it 9.5 at Hard Rock. All right. Simon Says, Wisconsin, minus 10.”
High Point 83, Wisconsin 82 — High Point upset Wisconsin 83-82 outright; Wisconsin lost by 1, nowhere near covering -9.5 (ESPN box score).
“[33:13] I do agree with you that, you know, it's a toss-up for best actor, [33:16] and I did invest in Michael B. Jordan at, like, 201”
Michael B. Jordan won Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards for his dual role in Sinners (Wikipedia).
“I'm trying to find my bet now. They don't have it up. The exact, my Simon says I want to give out, unfortunately, people. So it's Simon says whenever you can get it, get it. It's not going to change. I don't care what the number is. The under in the first quarter. I want to play a game. Simon says. Always blindly take the first quarter under in the Super Bowl. With Tom Brady, it was a gift by the gods. I think in his career, out of his whatever, 11 Super Bowl appearances, he went over the first quarter once. but every other quarter it's the same for everybody right it's you're waiting all day for this game everyone's so tight in that first quarter it's such a feel out and these are two good defenses so you know again I don't know what it's going to be the total opened at 46 it's come down in a couple different books so I'm assuming their first quarter will come down as well but if we're lucky and they give us that 10 and a half 10 it's a no-brainer Simon says slam it so unfortunately I'm like I've gone to a couple different books since we've been on and I just haven't found it But yeah, that's for right now, like for talking first bet, I'm going to make for a decent amount of money that that's going to be one of my bigger positions. But yeah, this game breaking it down. I love it Like watching you know film all season on both these teams you know both have their glaring weaknesses and they overcome a lot of it with just really good coaching And um you know we talk all the time how important the quarterback position is and how important important the coaches And you look at this matchup and it like you know two coach of the year candidates, like the MVP, the two coach of the year candidates, the shortest odds variable in McDonald's. Yeah. And which is again, so fair when you like break it down, when you give those future Superbowl odds and it's like, yeah, Ben Johnson, is he deserving of course but you know these two teams they got the one they got the two seed that's why these coaches are where they're at so um you know i okay man mitch said he's only he's seen seven and a half minus 115 for that first quarter which again that that sounds right i'd price it like that so i was hoping we get the 10 seven and a half the book seemed like they're on it so i'd still take it but yeah hopefully you can be patient maybe get a better number than that but”
SEA 3-NE 0 (1Q) — Super Bowl LX's 1st quarter ended Seahawks 3, Patriots 0 (Jason Myers 33-yard FG only score); combined 3 points is under 7.5 (Wikipedia scoring summary).
“I'm over his 31 and a half passing attempts.”
NE 10, DEN 7 — Jarrett Stidham went 17-of-31 passing for 133 yards in the AFC Championship; his 31 attempts fell short of the 31.5-attempt line, so the over lost (ESPN box score). (Jarrett Stidham: 31 passing attempts (17/31, 133 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT))
“I think I did an alt over his 260 passing yards.”
NE 10, DEN 7 — Jarrett Stidham threw for 133 yards (17/31) in the AFC Championship, well short of the 260-yard alt line, so the over lost (ESPN box score). (Jarrett Stidham: 133 passing yards (17/31, 1 TD, 1 INT))
“I'm taking Denver plus four and a half.”
NE 10, DEN 7 — Patriots beat Broncos 10-7 in the AFC Championship on Jan 25, 2026; Denver's 3-point loss was within the +4.5 spread, so the bet won (ESPN box score).
“I did give out the Super Bowl future just because that's where the value is.”
Denver was eliminated in the AFC Championship, losing 10-7 to New England (ESPN); the Patriots then lost Super Bowl LX 29-13 to Seattle on Feb 8, 2026 (ESPN), so the Broncos futures bet to win the Super Bowl lost outright.
“I mean, like we're both at with a Franklin anytime touchdown, like a Denver plus four and a half anytime touchdown with Franklin. That's going to be crazy good odds. I can put that in real quick in the hard work. I love that idea. But that's a really fun parlay for the first game.”
NE 10, DEN 7 — Denver lost 10-7 to New England in the AFC Championship; the Broncos' 3-point loss was within +4.5 so that leg won, but Troy Franklin recorded no receptions or touchdowns in the ESPN box score, so the anytime-TD leg lost and the parlay busts.
“New England at Denver. This game at Hard Rock Bet. I looked it up this morning on the Hard Rock Bet app. Denver plus five and a half. The total is 42. Look, obviously the story here is Jarrett Stidham starting for Bo Nix. Line hasn't really budged since Sunday night. There's actually one five out there, and there's a couple of totals at 41 and a half. And Simon, I want to ask you, like, I thought if Bo Nix was starting this line one and a half or two, you know, a seven point swing. What do you think? Simon says, give me the Denver Broncos. I want to play a game. Simon says. I might be putting my life savings on this Broncos team with this number, Chad.”
NE 10, DEN 7 — Patriots beat Broncos 10-7 in the AFC Championship on Jan 25, 2026; Denver's 3-point loss was within the +5.5 spread, so the bet won (ESPN box score).
“the broncos money line if you i am obviously going to bet it it's the move here is simply take the Broncos at 13 to 1 for the Super Bowl.”
Denver was eliminated in the AFC Championship, losing 10-7 to New England (ESPN); the Patriots then lost Super Bowl LX 29-13 to Seattle on Feb 8, 2026 (ESPN), so the Broncos futures bet to win the Super Bowl lost outright.
“I'd want to do Patriots minus three and a half.”
28-16 — Patriots beat Texans 28-16; New England's 12-point margin covered -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“my biggest investment is once I heard those trends and the numbers about the money line, I really invested heavily in England's money line.”
28-16 — Patriots beat Texans 28-16 outright; the moneyline bet cashes (ESPN box score).
“your game day goals at halionassist.com slash con all right brother listen i'm leaving the last one up to you. I think we're locked in on Seattle, San Francisco under 45 and a half in the contest, San Francisco plus seven and a half, New England minus three and a half, and the total in the New England-Houston game, which is 40 and a half. I'm sort of at a loss on the other games. I know you love the Rams, so it's at four and a half in the contest. We can also get 48 and a half on the total in that game or do we just go off the board with Buffalo and Denver and take the over in that game even though I don't like anything in that game yeah like we talked the the 49ers one we both love I get all those stats right I think it was Purdy 4-0 against the spread straight up in his career he's never lost in Seattle winning those games by 10 points per game so it's he's obviously been dominant and when he goes up there brock pretty but yeah for that for that bills denver game you know i gave you those stats it's really really hard to win back-to-back playoff games on the road especially when you have a banged up team so it stinks for us i wish i i could dig in more and be be heavy on denver but the josh allen effect i think both of us is just scared us off but yeah i am obviously still in the denver But yeah, if you want to go with the over in that game, I could support it. But to me, if I had to give out the five I like, I would do 49ers plus seven and a half. I'll do the under with you. I'd want to do Patriots minus three and a half. I'll take the under with you in that one as well. And for the last one, if I had to stick it in, I guess I would go Rams over Denver here just because at the end of the day, I won't hate myself if I lose on Stafford against Caleb.”
20-17 — Rams beat Bears 20-17 in overtime; Los Angeles's 3-point margin fell short of covering -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“Rams minus four at Chicago. Here's a great stat for you. 40 years ago this week, the Chicago Bears last played the Los Angeles Rams in the playoffs. I was at that game with my buddy Matt. Matt and I will be watching the game together in much warmer conditions than we did that day in Chicago, watching it from Miami. Back then, it was the monster of the midway Super Bowl shuffle Chicago Bears who completely dominated the Rams, and they were favorites. Bears underdogs here, but it's going to be icy. It's going to be conditions. I'm getting pictures from friends of the George Hallis statue outside of the shoulder field just covered in snow. What are we doing here? I know what I'm doing. I'm definitely still on this Rams team. For full game, I'm doing it, but obviously my bigger bets I've talked about, my positions are the Rams first half. It's minus two and a half now, I believe, and obviously the under for the first half.”
Rams and Bears were tied 10-10 at halftime; Los Angeles's 0-point first-half margin fell short of covering -2.5 (ESPN box score). (1H: Rams 10, Bears 10 (tied))
“It really was two or three really smart groups came in on Denver with me, I guess I should say, with the plus one and a half. And, you know, we all grabbed it.”
33-30 — Broncos beat Bills 33-30 in overtime; Denver's 3-point margin covered +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“And, again, I don't know if I'm as confident in the money line. I wish I was in this Seattle, this Niners team. I probably will throw a little bit on it at some point. But right now, for me, my biggest position is obviously the 7, the 7.5 on this 49ers team. It just feels like way too many points.”
6-41 — Seahawks beat 49ers 41-6; San Francisco lost by 35, failing to cover +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“your game day goals at halionassist.com. Okay, so the first Sunday game is Houston at New England. Very interesting moves here. The line has ticked up from two and a half to three. Total has come down from 41 to 40 and a half. Nico Collins did not practice, probably not going to play from the concussion. Christian Gonzalez, who had been in the protocol, did practice for the Patriots yesterday. This is a low total for a game with two good quarterbacks. And yet, our Brass Balls Bet of the Week presented by Hard Rock Bet We going under 41 You know what it takes It takes brass balls Yeah we love it I've talked about I'm getting bullied here into New England, which I'm happy to do it because to me, the Houston one felt so easy. It's like, of course, you just take Houston here, a team that has the better defense, has an offense that, as much as crap we give them, how inconsistent they've been, you know down the stretcher they've been much better than what obviously they started the year right they've kind of found their way and their identity as the season going along here but the nico collins stuff i'm with people that's going to push me over right you're losing a star player christian gonzalez is already practicing so that's a huge huge deal to me the fact they're losing already a key piece of their offense that's what they've struggled right they've struggled consistently moving the ball this season and now you're losing nico you know cj's favorite number one just feels like a huge deal and i do think this will go up to three and a half i don't miss every book right come come kick go i can see new and i'm getting up to that number again so i love the under love new england and uh you know this is this is a tough one to swallow and i'm”
16-28 — Patriots beat Texans 28-16, combined 44 points, over the 41 total (ESPN box score).
“Patriots minus three.”
28-16 — Patriots beat Texans 28-16; New England's 12-point margin covered -3 (ESPN box score).
“The Chicago Bears hosting the Los Angeles Rams, 6.30 p.m., Sunday night, January 18th. Bears are four-point underdogs right now at Hard Rock. The total is 49. It's come down from, you know, an opener of 52 way early in the week. Most of the week was at 50, 50 and a half when we spoke on Tuesday at least. the weather is just wreaking havoc with this game. I highly recommend everybody go check out a story on ESPN.com today by John Kahn. And it's a really fun story about how players handle the cold. Some of the coolest things that stood out for me, Stafford, thanks to advice from Tom Brady, plays in these really cold weather games in a scuba suit. And Sean McVay wears a scuba suit. And they say it doesn't restrict their movement. At least Stafford says that Brady says that And it a great way to sort of maintain you know some kind of protection against the cold The flip side is how many players talked about the pain that comes from having jammed, sprained fingers in the cold. It just feels like your finger is cracking when you are holding a football, trying to block someone. They say the pain is unlike anything they felt and Matthew Stafford is going into this game where it's supposed to feel like it's negative four with a badly sprained finger yeah I gave you that's that it's it's we're seeing history here that's the second time in NFL history a team will be back-to-back games as a home underdog which is what the Bears will be right and the other time it happened I gave you that stat it happened with The Eagles, 2017 to 2018, they obviously won both those games as home dogs. If I was a Bears fan, I'd be hyped up like Chad just gave you. You're getting exactly what you want. You're getting an indoor team from California, outdoors in the element, with a quarterback that might have a banged-up finger. I get why Chad's so excited. It's peak right now for Bears fandom. What was the first time you guys have won a home game in the playoffs in like 30 years or since the Super Bowl run? 20 years? I mean, it's been like five coaches since we won a playoff game. Right. And, you know, like everyone else, the public has the same exact data we have about the weather. So everyone's just coming in hammering this Bears team. Like I said, the professionals are split. For money-wise, I know more money has been on the Rams from pros, right? And I'm interested to see where these groups do. Like, will the groups come in heavier on the Rams and we'll just go back up to four, four and a half on this Ram side? Because right now it is all bears money for the most part. Like everywhere I've seen and, you know, bookmakers I've talked to, it's all bears money. The total is split, right? I think pros have come in and would done what we've done, which is take the first half on her. But overall, it's actually pretty split towards the over. I will give the one good stat I could find about Stafford. And again, like Chad said, this doesn't hold too much truth to it because this is something he's never played in before, right? This is just for under 40 degrees. I've seen so many stats about how bad he is in cold weather. It simply not true In his career he is 7 in games under 40 degrees because we all know he played in the NFC North for 15 or whatever it was 12 years 10 years Stafford, he is 4-1 against the Bears when it's below 40 degrees, obviously at Soldier Field. And when he's favored, so he's been favored eight times when it's below 40 degrees. He is 5-3, but out of seven of those games, he's had a QB rating of a plus 100. so he doesn't struggle horribly i mean i just gave you the data there like he you know i looked at it early in his career he really did which makes sense right he what he played at georgia was a dome quarterback in detroit he did struggle in lambo he did struggle uh what was it we have two years when they played at minnesota play at the minnesota college stadium yeah um which is crazy to think back to and then obviously soldiers field he's actually done pretty well there when it's been cold but this is a different beast so yeah i'm i i i'm betting the rams i can't believe it like i was i thought i'd be on the bears at this point”
20-17 — Rams beat Bears 20-17 in overtime; Los Angeles's 3-point margin fell short of covering -4 (ESPN box score).
“we've seen Blake Corum and Kyron Williams have fumble problems and that is something the Bears are really good at so who knows that could have an impact but I'm still leaning to the under in this game I understand why people are are pushing it back up I like that it got to 49 the fact that you're on the Rams worries me a little bit it shouldn't though like I know plenty of pros I mean again the pros that are on the Bears their biggest reason is what they keep banging the table about is if Bryce Young in the playoffs can light up this defense what is Caleb and Ben Johnson well look they're they're secondary like they were great at the start of the year but it might have just been because they were playing bad quarterbacks yes and they've been terrible in the latter half of the year and that to me is like pause right I wanted to be all over this under like we just talked about the weather both teams to me they're going to be a run script heavy type of teams just because we've seen it when it's cold like this it's hard to grip the ball and catch it that's how stupid picks and turnovers happen right when you're throwing these tight windows it's popping out of guys hands and um we already know ben johnson loves running ball mcveigh is the same thing me and chad lose our minds because mcveigh chooses to run the ball so much especially when his team has a lead so really really fun game and a really tricky total and obviously side but yeah i think i i'm almost positive i'm gonna end up taking the ramps here in my pick contest i'm gonna take the under as well”
20-17 — Rams beat Bears 20-17 in overtime, combined 37 points, under the 49 total (ESPN box score).
“This right now, this under, I keep betting it. So even 24.5, that's not scaring me off. Once it dips down to 22.5 or gets below 23.5, then I'll fall down betting. But right now, it's still high enough that I'm happy to keep taking that first half under. I would say for right now, those three are my biggest bets.”
Rams and Bears were tied 10-10 at halftime (combined 20 points), under the first-half 24.5 total (ESPN box score). (1H: Rams 10, Bears 10 (20 combined))
“Yeah, Jack, give me a Denver Broncos, Simon Says, plus one, brother.”
33-30 — Broncos beat Bills 33-30 in overtime; Denver won outright, covering +1 (ESPN box score).
“Like I said, I'm not trying to fall into a trap here again because it's like I can't believe they're giving us plus three. I want to talk to the pros, see what they're seeing here, but my early inclination is even, I should say, what I'm betting right now. I've already bet the plus three, and I bet the under right away. But I will let you know on Thursday if I'm missing something here. You know, I'm walking right into it once again, but I could not believe it. I couldn't believe they opened Houston at this big of a dog.”
16-28 — Patriots beat Texans 28-16; Houston lost by 12, failing to cover +3 (ESPN box score).
“to 50 and a half i would grab that under”
20-17 — Rams beat Bears 20-17 in overtime, combined 37 points, under the 50.5 total (ESPN box score).
“Like I've already bet the minus 13 and a half on the Hoosiers.”
27-21 — Indiana beat Miami 27-21 to win the CFP National Championship; Indiana's 6-point margin fell short of covering -13.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm definitely throwing a bet on the hurricanes money line.”
21-27 — Miami lost the CFP National Championship 21-27 to Indiana; the moneyline bet busts (ESPN box score).
“And we'll take out the Packers under and we'll put in Packers minus 1.5. So our final five are going to be the Packers. It's minus two and a half in the contest. The Packers are? Yeah.”
27-31 — Packers lost outright to the Bears 27-31, failing to cover -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“San Francisco at Philadelphia, the under 44 and a half. I'm talking about the under because this line has now pushed up to six. We've been talking about the Eagles as a side since they were minus three on Sunday. We talked about it on Tuesday at four and four and a half. We talked about it again at four and four and a half. the value in the side is gone whereas we still both like the under 44 and a half san francisco philly um trim williams is confident he'll play for the niners lane johnson practice all week is still questionable but he has practice for the first time in in nearly two months something about trim williams playing actually makes me like the under a little bit more because”
23-19 — 49ers beat Eagles 23-19, combined 42 points, under the 44.5 total (ESPN box score).
“Suckers. If anything, it gives us even more confidence, like you're saying here. It hasn't budged at all despite all this money coming on this Patriots team. A couple books did touch four, but immediately went back down. So, you know, like we always talk about, this is a late Sunday game. We'll see if the public absolutely gets crushed and they're chasing pretty heavy. Maybe they come in heavier on the Patriots. We do get some force popping, but I have no issue grabbing the three and a half still now. Like I'm looking at it right now. Some books are starting to juice it up. You're starting to get minus 115, minus 118s on it. So you can still get the 105s, the minus 110s, the minus 3.5. I would grab it now, or plus 3.5. On the Chargers, I would grab it now.”
3-16 — Patriots beat Chargers 16-3; Los Angeles lost by 13, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“And I've seen a couple groups already move on the Indiana minus three and a half, so now it's going up back to four. So, like I said, for five days, it was all Oregon from the pros. They were just telling me, like, you got to be on Oregon here. I don't want to be on Oregon. I've always wanted to back you, be with Indiana. I've just been winning on them. It's been fun to bet them. They just, like I said, they just feel so well coached. And, yeah, it'll be interesting what happens tomorrow with the linemen. But if you see it keep going up, that is professional money coming in here. Like I said, they were hoping to get the three. I don't think it's ever going to get there. I think this is too talented of a team. The public is just too heavy on Indiana as well. So, um, interesting if it gets to four and a half at any point, maybe then I would take Oregon, but my three and a half, I'm happy taking the Hoosiers here.”
IU 56, ORE 22 — Indiana beat Oregon 56-22 in the CFP Peach Bowl semifinal on Jan 9, 2026; Indiana's +34 margin covers -3.5 (Wikipedia).
“Mac Jones beat them. They must be like 15-2. Yeah, so that's where like, again, Evan killed me. Evan had all these trends. It like Panthers Panthers Panthers And I was like you know what I not gonna do it I gonna stay with Chad take this Rams team here they the better team I know there a little bit of weather coming in here as well if you want the honest truth I know pros who are just hammering this under like I talked about these these outdoor unders it's you're asking a lot of Bryce Young in his first playoff game to match the pace that Stafford's gonna set even if Stafford comes out slow which he has these last couple weeks but what like I said I think it's a Devontae Adams thing it's just it's just been different without him once he gets into a role so yeah it's it's crazy we're taking the chalk is better the week chad but i i'm with you it's uh minus 10 at hard rock that's too good of a number to pass on evan has his trends there's always a counter trend right so killer sports”
LAR 34, CAR 31 — Rams beat Panthers 34-31; Rams' +3 margin falls short of the -10 line, selection busts (ESPN box score).
“We can go back a long time, 20 and 40 straight up, a quarterback in this exact position that Caleb Williams is in. So, you know, I wanted to get there in the Bears, but the more I talked to the pros and I saw where they were going with it, I did grab some more Green Bay plus one and a half. I'd still grab it now minus one and a half. As long as it doesn't go both two, I think you're getting a good number on Green Bay.”
CHI 31, GB 27 — Bears beat Packers 31-27; Packers' -4 margin fails to cover +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“The kicker right now heavily favors the Jags. This guy hits bombs. Yeah, yeah. in the rain so again it's all the everything we like about the bills is simply that o-line and josh allen the rest of it is heavily favored to this jags team so i'm not going to get sucked in chad i'm going to i'm going to draw draw a line here i'm going to take the jags i'll take them to the point where the line flips so if you can still still get the plus one and a half that to me is the position if not just just take the over the over here is gonna be the fun play”
BUF 27, JAX 24 — Bills beat Jaguars 27-24; Jaguars' -3 margin fails to cover +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“Eagles, minus four and a half.”
SF 23, PHI 19 — 49ers beat Eagles 23-19; Eagles lost outright, the -4.5 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“San Francisco with Philadelphia. Philadelphia's a four and a half point favorite still. Total's 44 and a half. Welcome to Philly, bitch. Lane Johnson, that was the tipping point for both of us, was limited in practice on Wednesday. But Adam Schefter said he is expected to play the line and some places did tick up to fives. I'm still with you on the Eagles. I do think he is like Trent Williams. for the Niners. This team is just so different when he is in there from a run-blocking perspective and a pass-blocking perspective. His replacement just isn't as good. Slight movement down on the total, 45 to 44.5. Again, same stat I've given you before. This is another one of those games where the team that lost six or more, or that only won six games or less the previous season in the playoffs, 21-38 against the spread. The Niners apply here. I like them both. I like the side and I like the total. Love the total. This was my favorite total Unfortunately it has come down I did open 46 and now it been hit down to 44 but I just don know how the 49ers are going to move the ball especially the fact that Trent Williams has not practiced yet again”
SF 23, PHI 19 — 49ers beat Eagles 23-19, a combined 42 points; the under 46 covers (ESPN box score).
“Chargers plus three and a half. Absolutely love it.”
NE 16, LAC 3 — Patriots beat Chargers 16-3; Chargers lost by 13, the +3.5 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“They don't want to have to make a decision. They can just let this line sit. And yeah, for totals, I think me and Chad are on the same page again for this one. 46 and a half. I can see the quarterback laying a total leg and this being well under that number. So I got this at 42 and a half. Four points is rare for someone like me. So I'm a little worried I'm missing something here, but I haven't gone too heavy on the under here, but I do love this total as the under.”
NE 16, LAC 3 — Patriots beat Chargers 16-3, a combined 19 points; the under 42.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“so Pittsburgh by far my biggest bet I love it not only the trends do that I love it but I also love the matchup And yeah, plus three, it's going to end up being my biggest side. I wish I could have got more than a three and a half, but the books, they just limit early in the week like this now. So I'm hoping come Friday after these college football games, right? I'm going to hit the books right after this. Hopefully win on Indiana with that extra money and throw it, roll it over here on this Pittsburgh team at a plus three.”
HOU 30, PIT 6 — Texans beat Steelers 30-6; Steelers lost by 24, the +3 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Take the under 46.5.”
LAR 34, CAR 31 — Rams beat Panthers 34-31, a combined 65 points; the under 46.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“most of the year yeah and that why i just expecting all the money and everybody just to come in very heavy on this bear side so you can get the plus one and a half on green Bay I grab it now but like this is the game I not I haven't bet a lot of money into.”
CHI 31, GB 27 — Bears beat Packers 31-27; Packers' -4 margin fails to cover +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“reason this game's 51, like the total is 51 and a half.”
BUF 27, JAX 24 — Bills beat Jaguars 27-24, a combined 51 points; the over 51.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“wear and tear so they're playing a rested team against this Eagles team and this Niners had an all-out brawl the week before against Seattle. So I totally get why the pros have come in so heavy on this Eagles team. And I'm going to grab it now. I think it keeps going up. I think if Lane Johnson gets cleared, I can easily see this creeping up back again to five and maybe close at six. And this is why I love this week so much. This is the biggest home favorite this week. Isn't that not crazy? Eagles minus four. It's just this season was so good in this playoffs. It just lined up that way with these home teams. Eagles, the biggest favorite is minus four. It's crazy. The best the number was three. You don't mind it at four.”
SF 23, PHI 19 — 49ers beat Eagles 23-19; Eagles lost outright, the -4 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“But, yeah, the Eagles defense, obviously not as good as Seattle. But like you said, one of the best pass defenses in football this season has been the Eagles. So it's going to be a true test for Purdy here on the road. Again, the total is 45. Hammer that under. Hammer that under.”
SF 23, PHI 19 — 49ers beat Eagles 23-19, a combined 42 points; the under 45 covers (ESPN box score).
“And, you know, another game where the under just feels like the right number where I cannot believe this felt like it was going to be a 42, 41 total. I got to tell you. 47 they don't know 47 chads right down to 46 and a half so i keep betting that one this feels like a defensive slug match and i gave up those numbers charges defense number one against deep ball pass I love this. Drake May, one of the best deep ball throwers this season, easily. Best test he's had all year is going to be the Chargers defense, trying to throw deep, especially against James and that safety. The total feels so high for a game where –”
NE 16, LAC 3 — Patriots beat Chargers 16-3, a combined 19 points; the under 46.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Biggest bet by far this week has been Pittsburgh on the three and a half.”
HOU 30, PIT 6 — Texans beat Steelers 30-6; Steelers lost by 24, the +3.5 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“he gave you that stat about rogers he will be a dog every round in this playoffs but let's really think about this people what is his path when you break this down what is his path and right now you can get him a 55 to 1 to win the super bowl which i don't know if it's going to happen i don't think it's going to happen obviously i mean tomlin hasn't won a playoff game in six times their own six gets the spread and straight up their last six playoff games it's it's been bad but this is exact break he needs he finally has that veteran quarterback who's been there since he's had Roethlisberger and an offense that has been played better down the stretch and their path I just can't get over it you're telling me what stands in their way is the two seed of Drake May or a Brock you know Bo Nix at the one seed a team and none of us really true believe in Denver as good as their defense has been and you know as great as Bo Nix played this season I could still lie to myself and see a path ran Rogers and this team can get through that like there's just there is no Mahomes and as much as I'm scared of Josh Allen and the bills it wouldn't be at home he would have to become to Pittsburgh I already gave you those stats he just is a different quarterback on the road so I I just see this for Rogers this Pittsburgh team I know it sounds crazy but you just have to throw a little bit on If you don want to take the money line here I think that the bet Don take the money line Pittsburgh take the 55 to one because we can just hedge it if we want next round But I, for my long shot favorite team, this is by far out of all the teams. I think this has the best value of 55 to one. They were 60 to one. I mean, but the pros bet it down a little bit.”
Seattle 29, New England 13 — The Seattle Seahawks won Super Bowl LX, beating the New England Patriots 29-13 on Feb 8, 2026; the Steelers futures bet busts (Wikipedia).
“And then for the chalk side, I always give out one chalk side. Last year, I've seen nailed it 10 to 1 on the Eagles. Same thing this year. I already broke it down for you. I still think they're the best team in the NFC. Their Achilles heel is going to be the OC. I think Petulo is truly an idiot in the position that you need to be the smartest person in the room. In the NFL, the OC needs to be the smartest person. The defenses are so complex these days. You really need a genius. And that's fearful to me. but everything I've read, Ciarani's helping out the QB coach. Everyone has had their imprint on this offense. And you've seen, they're listening to the, listening to the nerds. Like they're taking more snaps on their center, which is better for them offensively. They run better out of it. And now with Lane Johnson coming back, I just think this team's being undervalued by the public. Like they're the defending Superbowl champs. No one's talking about that way. Like when you hear, they keep saying how it's wide open, even though, you know, this team could have been the two seed. So it's, it's slept on right now. I think you can get them 11 to one or 10 to one, a couple of different books. I just don't be ready. I think it's a homer in me. It's really not. I'm just going off the numbers. I have them as a slight favorite over the Seahawks right now. The books have the Seahawks are the one. And then right behind them, the Rams, like to me, that's insane when you really think about it. So yeah, I, I'm going to take the Eagles at longer odds than those two teams. All right. So futures, we like the Steelers 55 to one. We like the Eagles at about 10 to one right now, because they are behind the Seahawks and the Rams.”
Seattle 29, New England 13 — The Seattle Seahawks won Super Bowl LX, beating the New England Patriots 29-13 on Feb 8, 2026; the Eagles futures bet busts (Wikipedia).
“But a three, three and a half, come on. You got to take the Lions. The Bears, even against bad teams this year, they just play close games. It's just who they are. They play these type of close games. So give me the three and the hook with this Lions team.”
DET 19, CHI 16 — Lions beat Bears 19-16; Lions' +3 margin covers the +3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Steelers plus three and a half, Chad.”
PIT 26, BAL 24 — Steelers beat Ravens 26-24; Steelers' +2 margin covers the +3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“It's going to be Josh Johnson here. So, yeah, it's a number that's going up. Like you can get the four right now at Hard Rock. Every other book is four and a half. And a couple books have already moved to five. So it's just another line I'm betting. I like the Eagles here. I like this matchup. And if this is, you know, a close game heading into the fourth, you know, I think that favors this Eagles team in many ways. I just think defensively when you have Vic calling these plays, he could turn up to another level. And like I said, Brainerd Graham's playing. Like a lot of vets are still playing for this Eagles team, especially on the defensive side. They just don't have enough bodies to fill in. So, yeah, give me an Eagles team against a Washington team”
WSH 24, PHI 17 — Commanders beat Eagles 24-17; Eagles lost outright, the -4 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“i'm gonna i'm gonna be with the public i'm gonna take the three on the cowboys now because i think that's such a key number”
NYG 34, DAL 17 — Giants beat Cowboys 34-17; Cowboys lost outright, the -3 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“um before we get to heroes and shame of the week uh let's talk about the steelers and the ravens because i know people are going to want to go watch that in a few minutes so i don't want to shortchange it before the line has moved to four and a half yeah i'm only emboldened to take the Steelers now? Like to me, this is an overcorrection in the market compared to what we believed it should be. It could be. I have no reason. I honestly hate this, but I hate that we have to do it. And that's why I made it. Simon says it's like, I knew I was going to hate it, but I have to do it. I, I, once again, I'm living with the shame forever. I bet in the Ravens is a five and a half point favorite in this matchup of the year. So Pittsburgh, I thought this land would keep getting higher. It went to three and a half after our show down from four. and we talked about it, it's going to steam up, right? The public, it's the last game of the season. They're going to come in with whatever money they won or whatever they're chasing on and bet this Ravens team. So, yeah, no problem. Grab the four and a half. I'm not going to keep giving out the stats. It's just you bet the dog here. It's what we do.”
PIT 26, BAL 24 — Steelers beat Ravens 26-24; Steelers' +2 margin covers the +4.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Let's talk about some playoff leans quickly. Bills, one and a half point favorites over the Jaguars. The Bills currently do not have a place kicker. They cut Michael Badgley. Matt Prater got hurt again today. I don't know what they're going to do. Matt Mitchell is apoplectic. the Jags are one and a half point dogs at home. The small market team getting disrespected. Yeah. And it's, I don't know. It does. I'm going to hit it. I'll hit the plus one and a half now on the Jags, obviously, but I would be shocked. I'm not a strong opinion here.”
BUF 27, JAX 24 — Bills beat Jaguars 27-24 in the AFC Wild Card game; Jaguars' -3 margin fails to cover +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“But the fact that it's three and a half, never going to avoid it. Love this number for the Saints team.”
ATL 19, NO 17 — Falcons beat Saints 19-17; New Orleans lost by only 2, covering the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Cincinnati Bengals minus seven and a half.”
CIN 18, CLE 20 — Browns beat Bengals 20-18; Cincinnati lost outright as a -7.5 favorite, missing the spread (ESPN box score).
“Give me the 49ers plus one and a half.”
SEA 13, SF 3 — Seahawks beat 49ers 13-3; San Francisco lost by 10, missing the +1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“just because it is such a wild week uh speaking of money lines money line underdog parlay My dog likes your dog. Your dog likes my dog. I got Pittsburgh Carolina San Francisco New Orleans Love it Moneyline favorite You just mentioned two of them I had Cincinnati and the Rams”
Moneyline underdog parlay busts: Steelers ML won (beat Ravens 26-24); Panthers ML lost (fell to Buccaneers 16-14); 49ers ML lost (fell to Seahawks 13-3); Saints ML lost (fell to Falcons 19-17) — one losing leg sinks the parlay (ESPN box scores).
“It just we have to blindly bet it Like I trying to give you all the stats We just have to buy Carolina So we love them we know it the public side at least we both have good numbers i hope people listen to sunday and got a good number i i am with chad though i would take the money line as well i wouldn't let the two and a half scare you off i'd still bet that we talk all time it's such a key number but the nfl messed up with this game i think we both know that they did not think the falcons were in now even if the the panthers lose this game they can still make the playoffs if the Falcons beat the Saints on Sunday. So a bizarre game, honestly, Chad, like a game I'm, I'm not putting too much into because it's moved off the three, but I am still on the Panthers, especially hearing all those stats. I really, it gives me confidence”
TB 16, CAR 14 — Panthers lost to the Buccaneers 16-14; Carolina moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“So I'm taking a pretty big position here on the Bengals money line,”
CIN 18, CLE 20 — Bengals lost to the Browns 20-18; Cincinnati moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I like Chad like I bet Dallas now especially at minus three and a half”
NYG 34, DAL 17 — Giants beat Cowboys 34-17; Dallas lost by 17, missing the -3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“on sunday for the minnesota vikings la chargers at the denver broncos broncos are minus 12 and a half obviously they have so much to play for they got to lock in the number one seed the chargers have nothing to play for, which is why Trey Lance is starting a quarterback. I watched a little bit of Trey Lance in the preseason, enough to tell myself I don't hate Trey Lance, but at the end of the day, I don't see this being one of our final five. No? Oh, my God. I was hoping you would love this. I love the Chargers here. Okay. Okay. It's Bo Nix as a big favorite in his division, and I think I saw some crazy stat. He's like 2-9 this season as a favorite when he was, what was he, 8-0 last year as a favorite. So totally came crashing back down to earth. And, yeah, you could say it's a horrible match for the Chargers. Agree. Like, they're going to be sitting everybody. Now they're sitting their backup offensive linemen, so their backups are play. Like, it's going to be disastrous, I'm sure. But this just feels like a ton of points with a mobile quarterback that, you know, we could get the backdoor easily. It's just how hard will the Broncos be playing the second half, right? It's going to be a really unique, interesting spot. And yeah it really is about the number here Like even with Trey Lance I didn make this bigger than 10 It 12 12 and a half a lot of books I could see all the parlays all the teasers coming in on the Broncos come Sunday and we might be able to get to 13 Chad So I'll be patient here. I'm definitely grabbing the 12 and a half while they're out there, but I can only see this one getting bigger. I'm just not sure other than professionals who's going to be better on this Chargers team. So it'll be interesting how the number goes and where the Broncos end up, if they end up at 13 or if this starts coming back down a little bit. Well, like I said, I don't hate it.”
DEN 19, LAC 3 — Broncos beat Chargers 19-3; Los Angeles lost by 16, missing the +12.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“everyone got hurt. I think we got a real game with Detroit at Chicago and Chicago is a two and a half point favorite. They both, both coaches have said they're playing to win. Uh, the bears need it for potential seating. Like we just discussed the lions need it for pride pun intended. And Dan Campbell would sooner quit before he wasn't going to play a game at full tilt. So we got a real handicap, my friend, the line has moved in the bears direction one and a half to two and a half. but only a slight majority of the bets coming in for the Bears. So this feels more like a wise guy move than a public move. The Bears may not have Roma Dunze, probably not going to have Luther Burden. What do you think? I know what I think and I don't like to say it because I'm proud of my team, but I don't think they're the team this week. I don't think we see the Bears win another game this season oh my god I know it just it feels that way that felt like a turning point yeah I'm not gonna lie where it's like oh I disagree on that yeah you think they win this game they win a playoff game I'm not talking about this game I think the Lions are the right side in this game but I came away from that game against the Niners so encouraged like the way they played Caleb was still missing his easy passes but when like he can make some plays and i feel like they should come out of that game thinking they went toe to toe with one of the best teams in the conference and they were one bad sort of alignment away from having a better chance to win that game i'm not discouraged as a fan coming out of that game at all all right i'm just telling you from a professional standpoint that when i look at this i'm like oh my god they might not win another game the rest of the year because it's a hard matchup and they have the playoffs and it just feels like it's a losable game in the round one matchup your your defense is horrible that been your issue all year you lived on the turnovers and um lucky for you Goff seems like he got the turnover bug This dude cannot stop turning the ball over So I'm simply just playing the number here. It's three now with multiple books. So this number is getting hit by professionals. Now they've bumped it up to three. How do I not take that side? And I'm going to give out these Campbell stats, but I keep saying I hate that I'm doing it because they might be Ben Johnson stats. But it is interesting. Campbell with the Lions, 4-0 straight up, 4-0 against the spread in week 18. In week 17 and 18 in his career, he is 8-2 against the spread. That's including not covering last week. Jared Goff, man Campbell, as a dog, we know the deal, 29-14 against the spread. It's like you just got to bet it, and when they end up closing as a dog, they're 23-13. So I know it's all these numbers. I keep saying they might mean nothing, but I just have to keep trusting that they'll get this offensive going. And against a bad Bears, I think the Bears can win, Chad, no doubt. I think they are the better team right now. They're clearly the more healthier team, even with all their injuries. That offensive line has got a lot of shoes. I just can the Bears take advantage. Do you guys have pass rushers that can take advantage of that bad offensive line? And unless Goff doesn't turn the ball over, I just feel like this is going to be a back and forth type of game. So if it was still a pick or minus one on the Bears, I think I could be on the Bears side here. But now we're hitting the three. I mean, come on. You have to take the lines at that number. So it's it's tough for me. I love this Bears team, but I just I see it.”
CHI 16, DET 19 — Lions beat Bears 19-16; Detroit won outright by 3, covering the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Baltimore visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh Steelers are three and a half point underdogs. Little surprise This moved up We both talked about it on Sunday night We both took the Steelers at plus three So many sort of narratives that are regular themes in our show And as we talk about betting, the Steelers, home underdogs, Mike Tomlin, rah-rah spot, historically great spot. One of the best in the history of the NFL as a head coach at covering this number at home. This game between the Ravens and the Steelers, historically, the underdog is covering this game over the past 20 years in these battles between Harbaugh and Tomlin, 60%. Add in, we don't know who's going to be playing quarterback yet for the Baltimore Ravens. Add in, we don't know who's going to be quarterback for either of these teams next year because there's a lot of drama going on in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson. We don't know what's going to happen with Aaron Rodgers. So a lot of subplots here. I'm a little surprised the line moved from three to three and a half, to be honest, because I still like the Steelers a lot. Simon says, give me this Pittsburgh Steelers team plus three and a half. I want to play a game. Simon says, I am like you. I cannot believe the public and the professionals are coming in on this Raven side. You know, it's a little weird. I once was lost, Chad. I am now found. That's how I feel about this game i cannot believe when i went through our record that we took the ravens as a five and a half point favorite it was stupid yeah we just were lost and one of our most egregiously bad decisions in the history of our show and just not us we just blindly take this number that's why i'm making it simon says we have no excuse we can't avoid it we are dug in here on pittsburgh and i'll give out the stats we love these stats so much i love them every time i read them”
PIT 26, BAL 24 — Steelers beat Ravens 26-24; Pittsburgh won outright, covering the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“For this Carolina game, I'm like you. Immediately, I'm going to grab that three.”
TB 16, CAR 14 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 16-14; Carolina lost by only 2, covering the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“The other game, Pittsburgh hosting the Baltimore Ravens. They opened as three point underdogs. I also bet the Pittsburgh Steelers in this spot. Yeah, we're the suckers. I mean, there's nothing to say, nothing to process. People listen to the show, they knew immediately we'd be betting Pittsburgh at that number. Let's see. The definition of a Tomlin, rah-rah spot. Yep. I hate it. I knew it was coming. As soon as they lost that game, I go, oh, my God. I hope they at least give us a three when they open this night at two and a half. So I'm with you. I know it's a sucker bet right now, but I have to grab that number.”
PIT 26, BAL 24 — Steelers beat Ravens 26-24; Pittsburgh won outright, covering the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“You can get Minnesota minus five and a half right now. Why would we not take that? Like they're playing for real.”
MIN 16, GB 3 — Vikings beat Packers 16-3; Minnesota won by 13, covering the -5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I know it tough because we just lost on you know or I said that we just won on Cleveland but Cleveland on the road at Cincinnati and they just been an absolute juggernaut It feels like down the stretch here at Cincinnati Not just defensively, offensively, obviously. Crushing. Yeah, they're minus 7, minus 115, minus 110 in a couple books. I'm going to take it just in case it goes up.”
CIN 18, CLE 20 — Browns beat Bengals 20-18; Cincinnati lost outright as a -7 favorite, missing the spread (ESPN box score).
“Just really impressive because we say the lines are always moving It a really tough contest So I like you wish we could get this one i love the texans here but maybe uh maybe it for the best i think it's one it would be one and a half in our contest that's where most lines are going so i don't think i care like i i'm betting more on the money line for this game than i am on the side that's fair i i i you know me i'm so into the the number two how it's such a key number i just i feel much Schaefer taking the two, two and a half.”
HOU 20, LAC 16 — Texans beat Chargers 20-16 on Dec 27, 2025; Houston won outright, so the Texans moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Cleveland, no surprise to people.”
CLE 13, PIT 6 — Browns beat Steelers 13-6 on Dec 28, 2025; Cleveland won outright by 7, covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“I'm back in Tampa, and I'm taking the 5.5. [35:47] I've seen actually some pro money. [35:48] That's why I didn't want to talk much about it coming on the Bucs. [35:50] This did go from 5 to 5.5, [35:52] and now I'm seeing a couple books move to six.”
MIA 20, TB 17 — Dolphins beat Buccaneers 20-17 on Dec 28, 2025; Tampa Bay lost outright by 3, not covering -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“And I just have a feeling come Sunday, this Bears side at the plus three, it's going to be one of my bigger bets.”
SF 42, CHI 38 — 49ers beat Bears 42-38 on Dec 28, 2025; Chicago lost by 4, not covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“So if you can get a six and a half, I'd grab it. I grabbed the Cowboys numbers.”
DAL 30, WSH 23 — Cowboys beat Commanders 30-23 on Dec 25, 2025; Dallas won outright by 7, covering -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“simon says give me the seattle seahawks minus seven i want to play a game simon says”
SEA 27, CAR 10 — Seahawks beat Panthers 27-10 on Dec 28, 2025; Seattle won outright by 17, covering -7 (ESPN box score).
“It's like one and a half. You can get that right on the bills. I'm all over that number.”
PHI 13, BUF 12 — Eagles beat Bills 13-12 on Dec 28, 2025; Buffalo lost outright by 1, not covering -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“The number has moved against the Rams, Monday Night Football, from eight and a half down to eight. So the wise guys are betting the Falcons. I can see it like they have been much, much better with Kirk Cousins. They just have, right? And so, and even last week, Like they struggled against Arizona in the first half. Then they pulled away. They kept Arizona at bay. They didn't let them get that back door. You know, it'll be the kind of game where it's going to be fast, on turf, indoors. Big number for the Rams. I feel like you're going to tell me Sean McVay in December. There you go. Good man. There's nothing but cover for us. Last week, the refs, they tried their best, Chad. They tried so hard to not let us cover that Rams number. We still got there at the plus one and a half. Just incredible. Yeah, it's McVay in December. And even better, it's McVay after a loss in December, which is very rare. Just the fact that it's off a loss. McVay in his career 32 and 19 against the spread off a loss It is the best record for any head coach since he entered the league in 2017 Even better when he off a loss playing at night he eight and four against the spread in his career So tends to, tends to back it up in the sense that they lose games. I mean, that was insane. Like to me, like I was shocked to my model had this at 10 and a half. The more I think about it, more it makes sense, right? They should have won that Seattle game. This show. Yeah. 10, 10 and a half. I mean, that just, never in our lifetime we may never see a team you know 10 minutes later get a two-point gone their way because a guy picked up a football after the whistle which I know people are complaining a lot of people in the sports were complaining and I was shocked too I had to google it they changed a rule I guess in like 2009 that um on a play like that doesn't matter if the whistle is blown it the play is not dead so I know people are upset about that but it's like it doesn't matter I know every other play in football matters. If the whistle is blown, it does matter. On that exact play, a forward pass, it does not matter. A backward pass, I should say. It does not matter if the whistle is blown. So I was, again, losing my mind because I was like, that whistle blew. That's a dead play. That two-pointer should not count. So this feels like a weird number. The Rams are being punched a little bit. Like you said, this is going to be very public. All the Joes are going to be just lining up betting this Rams team. They're going to be in every parlay money line bet. Just you expect them to bounce back and obviously dominate this Atlanta team that they're another team that they've been beating up on. It feels like bad teams here. Now they're playing what I think is the class of the NFC. So, you know, Chad said at the top McVay, December, it's, it's, what is it? Two and O already this, this month so far against the spread. It's, it's been covering. I'm going to keep riding. I just love McVay here in this Rams team.”
ATL 27, LAR 24 — Falcons beat Rams 27-24 on Dec 29, 2025; Los Angeles lost outright by 3, not covering -8 (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to keep going to this well of this Colts team. I know the history of them, the Jags, but they're a plus seven right now. Just early line, I'll grab that.”
JAX 23, IND 17 — Jaguars beat Colts 23-17 on Dec 28, 2025; Indianapolis lost by 6, covering +7 (ESPN box score).
“I going to take the plus three I been doing it all season with this Bears team”
SF 42, CHI 38 — 49ers beat Bears 42-38 on Dec 28, 2025; Chicago lost by 4, not covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“And I know I'm banned from talking Tennessee Titans Saints games, but how do I not ride my boy Shook? He's minus two right now on the road against this Tennessee team after a huge Tennessee win. So I might be stepping into a trap here. I'll be patient on that one. I'm going to grab it just in case it goes up to minus three on Shuck on the road.”
NO 34, TEN 26 — Saints beat Titans 34-26 on Dec 28, 2025; New Orleans won outright by 8, covering -2 (ESPN box score).
“line just seem a little fishy to you I I just can't get over where I don't know is Seattle really a one and a half point favorite but I told you I'm too biased I think with this Rams team and Well, you love the Rams all season and you've had them higher rated than anybody else all season. So now they're living up to your rating. And the Seahawks, look, they haven't looked good, right? Like Sam Darnold, they nearly lost to a grandfather, literally. Which again, it's another reason to back them because it's like those are the exact things we like. We like backing the teams that look bad that we know are really good facing a team that, you know, might have had their best game of the season. that was an incredible comeback by the Rams in a really tough spot on a short week now, but I keep going back to all these McVay stats. That's what I keep. I can't get over how incredible McVay has been this late in the year. And, you know, I can read it to people again if they want to hear it. The McVay, 28 and 11 straight up, 27, 11 in the month of December in his career against the spread. Since 2021, he's 17 and 3 against the spread in the month of December. so you know we already know he owns the Seahawks like he just I think this year they didn't cover we definitely bet that the Rams I believe were two and a half point favorites they were up 14 I believe in the in the fourth quarter and the Seahawks backdoored it they they lost by two so they covered the number of they lost by two in a game that they did I just felt like the Rams were way better so like I said if you if you want to follow what I call the fake sharps they're going to be on the Seahawks this week and I think the Rams it's going to be the spot so I'm interested to see where this one goes like I said it's it's a game where maybe I am too close this Rams team I love him too much but I just can't believe people are hammering Sam Darnold as a favorite in this divisional game and like I told you Chad there a lot of really interesting stats about backing mcveigh in this type of spot and uh he actually does really well in short weeks on the flip side you know this seahawks team since they since they faced the rams it's obviously been different coaches different quarterbacks they're only three in the spot of facing the rams on short week where the rams tend to play really well in there and the biggest one jumped out to me is i talked to about the home field advantage for the Seahawks, that's been irrelevant since like 2015. They actually have a losing record at home and against the spread at home in this exact spot. So a short week that's facing a divisional opponent that's above 500. They're 0-6 in this spot, Seattle Seahawks since 2020. So again, it's even with their head coach, he's been there. He's 0-2 in this spot. So it's not a good spot historically for Seattle. And on the flip side, like I said, McVay, he dominates his late season he's just such a prepared coach and um you know another distraction could be had a baby i love that kind of stuff like that's those are my favorite things where coaches or players have babies and i bet on them anytime touchdowns obviously i can't do that mcveigh but i will be taking his side here but like i said it's a game that luckily we can't put in our contest because i'm confident in it but i think i might be blinded to my love of this rams team”
SEA 38, LAR 37 — Seahawks beat the Rams 38-37; Rams covered +1.5, losing by only 1 (ESPN box score).
“show and then actually bet on. Washington at Philadelphia. We talked about this on Tuesday, Saturday night, six and a half point underdogs. The Washington commanders are going to be our Brass Balls Bet of the Week presented by Hard Rock Bet. You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. I think that matters The commanders have just been better with Marcus Mariota which we been saying for the past few weeks Jalen Carter will still be out I think that impacts how the Eagles can defend against a mobile quarterback And talk about wanting to be in a spot where you fading a team We want to fade the team that just blew somebody out And all of a sudden, people think the Eagles are fixed when we're not quite convinced the Eagles are fixed. So at six and a half, this just feels a little bit inflated. As you noted in sharp calls, wise guys are on this one as well. The real wise guys, not the fake wise guys. It's true, though. It feels like an inflated line. I had this model at four. And it's not shocking, though. If I was the general public and didn't have a model or know much about it, why wouldn't I bet the Eagles here, right? They looked incredible. They looked like they got things right. And we've talked about it. They're a team that if they can figure out that offense, why would they not be the number two or number three best team in the NFC? So this is obviously two teams that are going totally different directions. The commanders, like we've said, they're shut down their star quarterback. you know how motivated would they be blah blah blah I think that's why the public is just coming in so heavier I don't know about you but most books I've looked at or talked to it's like 80% to 90% of all the money all the bets are coming on this Eagles team yeah that's why it's so surprising to me it hasn't moved to seven that's clearly sort of resistance coming from the professionals yeah it can be part of it um it's also I think the books too are just like they they're like what we're thinking here is just who are the Eagles to be catching seven against a divisional opponent like this where who are the super bowl champions to be catching seven but i get it like they haven't looked like the super champions at all no it's like it's the they haven't had a horrible season like the chiefs have had but it's been close to it like they've it's could have it could have fallen apart a bunch of different spots here so this is just a bet for the egos to prove it to me right and um you know we always talk about the numbers with hertz there's some real numbers here to fade hertz especially when it comes to this late in the season in December. He is great, usually against the spread to start the year, but then the public keeps betting him, falling more in love with him, and the number goes too far. And we've seen that now through his early career because the Eagles, obviously, every year he's been a starter. He's made the playoffs, right? And he's kind of been in that spot where, you know, not the last two years or not last year, but the year before, they totally fell off. So that's why these numbers are skewed a little bit, his December's numbers, but these ones just popped out to me. So December later hurts, five and seven against the spread. when he faces the NFC East, he's one of five in his career in the month of December against the spread. So we talked about it. He just gets inflated in our division. I mean, Eagles division, historically, it's kind of been a bottom feed in the division, right? They're usually two teams really good, and the other two are just absolutely terrible. And it's been like that for his whole career, these last four or five years for Hurts. So even against bad teams in his division in December, he's struggled. It's been very bizarre. And another stat I really loved was the Eagles were a double-digit favorite last week. Hurts, for some reason, he's horrible at games following being a double-digit favorite. So when he's a double-digit favorite Hurts, he's three and six against the spread in this following game. It just shows they usually blow teams out, live up to it. And the following game, they have a letdown game. So I've seen that time and time again. And on the flip side, Dan Quinn, you know, give him a ton of grief. I just don't think he's that good of a head coach. But as a dog, he's been great, especially covering seven to four against the spread. And this exact spot, three and one in his own division. So, you know, we like Dan Quinn. We like the numbers when he's back in his own division as a dog. It's just when he's a favorite, I really couldn't get over how much overrated he was. So we talked, we knew Washington was coming back down to earth this year. felix they have but they feel like the the public has totally left them for dead yes happened last week they were hammering the giants team like you just said that number didn't budge last week it's happening once again the public is hammering the opposite side of the commander side and it's not budge so for both of us i think we'd feel much better we wake up saturday and this number's five and a half because it's like okay at least some real professional money's coming and we both have the best number but even this gets the seven i'm still gonna back this Washington team come Saturday. All right, Washington commanders, brass balls, better the week.”
PHI 29, WSH 18 — Eagles beat the Commanders 29-18; Commanders lost by 11, busting the +6.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Betting the Giants plus three, what Simon says.”
MIN 16, NYG 13 — Vikings beat the Giants 16-13; Giants lost by exactly 3, pushing the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Minnesota, minus three at the New York Giants. Betting the Giants plus three, what Simon says. I hope everyone is betting because this line is going to move to two and a half because it looks like the money is coming in on the Giants. Again, I don't think there are metrics to make us feel better about this one. It's really about fading a quarterback who, until two weeks ago, people were trying to figure out what their option was going to be next year in Minnesota to replace J.J. McCarthy and how bad they must feel that they don't have Sam Darnold, that they didn't have Daniel Jones, that they no longer had Kirk Cousins. and then the guy beats up on two bad defenses and the commanders and the Cowboys and all of a sudden he's a three-point road favorite. That's what we're fading here and that's why it's Simon Says and that's why we bet it and that's why it'll be in the contest. Yeah, like you just, you nailed it.”
MIN 16, NYG 13 — Vikings beat the Giants 16-13; Giants lost by exactly 3, pushing the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“I can't believe it. Bills minus 10. I am shocked. I know. I'm shocked only because I'm happy about it because I didn't want to bet the Browns. And even if you lose, at least we'll be like, well, at least we lost on Josh Allen. I don't know. Right. No, no. Sanders. I mean, I can't do it. I can't. That's why I said historically this would have been an autoplay, and we haven't done it. And there's something that's holding us back, and I think you just nailed it. That 28-9 stat is crazy. I kind of like the idea of having the Bills as a big favorite on the road against the Browns in the contest for us. It feels very contrarian. Yeah. I mean, it'll be 10-1⁄2, but I wouldn't mind having that discussion Sunday morning. I bet it, as soon as I saw those numbers, it's like, I'll take a position as because hard rock and there's only one other book at the 10. So if you want the 10, unfortunately for you, if you don't have a hard rock, you're probably not going to find it.”
BUF 23, CLE 20 — Bills beat the Browns 23-20; Bills won by only 3, busting the -10 spread (ESPN box score).
“thinks the Jags are frauds His own peers in the league do not believe in the Jaguars team So you know interesting number I thought today we have three and a half because I thought the pros would come in heavy on this Denver team It either they been dipping their toes on a little bit on Denver They've been avoiding it. So this number is not budged. So I am confident in the Jaguars team. But for contest play for us, I would have two and a half. It has to be three and a half. Well, the contest, it is three and a half. So I would I'd like that in now. And just in case, because I I'm interested what the pros do for us. I could see this being two and a half by kickoff. I do see professional money coming to the Jaguars team.”
JAX 34, DEN 20 — Jaguars beat the Broncos 34-20; Jaguars covered +3.5 by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“so the las vegas raiders at plus 14 and a half in the contest we got to put them in i don't know if we can't find a fifth one we can do it but it's we're simply betting this because of the trends and the numbers and just i got news for you buddy we're not going to find a fifth one i don't know we might that i have the games i like i'm just lukewarm on them right now because it's just it's such funky lines we just i feel like this is the most threes we've had all season Like there's just six games where just there's hanging threes. And it's like, I just don't know what to do with them. But this game here, like you said, the trends, obviously they love this Raiders team. Like you already gave out that one. They got shut out the previous week before this season. Teams got shut out the week before. Six and 0 against the spread. You know, it's a great lazy stat like we talk about. We love those type of stats. And the team that fits that description this week is the Raiders in Cincinnati. and one team's lines move three points. The Raiders line has moved the other way for three points, right? I think it was 11 or 11 and a half. Now it is 14, 14 and a half. And it's a unique spot, right? This Texans team, like you said, they are a juggernaut. Their last loss was a game we bet them on, right? The game they should have won against Denver and CJ got knocked out of. Since then, they've won six straight. And since CJ has come back, I mean, last week, that was, to me, CJ's best game this season. That looked like CJ from rookie year. just incredibly disciplined downfield throws right on target just in total total unison and um you know the underlying numbers here let dive into it six game win streak for texans teams is exact spot they are 11 and 16 against the spread since 2003 when they are double digit favorites in this exact spot they are 11 against the spread since 2003 When they are double favorites in this exact spot they are 2 against the spread So a very unique rare spot where like Chad just said the numbers, they're telling you, you're supposed to back the Raiders here. And I can't believe we're going to do it. I can't believe I'm agreeing with you, but I bet the Raiders, I've taken the numbers, and it doesn't matter to me if it's Kenny Pickett. I know you look horrible against the Eagles, obviously, last week, But even as bad as he looked, him and Geno Smith, there truly is no difference. Like, really, there is not. So we'll see who the quarterback is, Chad, and maybe that will dictate our decision. But I have no problem locking the center 14 and a half. And if it is Geno and it drops down to 13 or 12, at least we have good value.”
HOU 23, LV 21 — Texans beat the Raiders 23-21; Raiders covered +14.5, losing by only 2 (ESPN box score).
“I bet it with you, the Patriots. I just couldn't stop grabbing the plus three.”
NE 28, BAL 24 — Patriots beat the Ravens 28-24; Patriots covered +3 by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“yeah the one and a half if you can get it that obviously is way better in that type of scenario because say the juice on the one and a half is minus 120 you probably can just take the money line from minus 130 and that's that's probably where you want to be with Dak in this exact matchup because like you said the movement maybe it does scare me because this is a Chargers backdoor type of game but I don't know if the Chargers offense can keep up with this Dallas offense and that's that's my policy here it's like their their defense needed what was a five takeaways against the Eagles to win that game where I think the Eagles may put up 16 on the flip side. The Chiefs, you know, put up 13 points and they were dysfunctional, but they were moving the ball. Like there are ways to move the ball against this Chargers team. I think this might be the exact matchup for this Cowboys team to get right. So since, you know, 2022, Dallas, when they're on their homestead playing against a team that is above 500, Dak 3-0 in this exact spot. So you know once again I trying to find stuff to get off this Cowboys team but it just seems like all the numbers the pros are right right The pros came and have you on this one I didn really understand it I thought this was the Chargers side but the underlying numbers back it up And offensively you know I hate to say they the more desperate team here but the Chargers got their big wins, right? That was an emotional win against the Eagles and a huge emotional win against the Chiefs. You expect them to have a letdown spot against a Dallas team that just got embarrassed in a primetime game. So this feels like another pros versus pros all over the Cowboys team, the public. they will be hammering this Chargers team. So, yeah, I'm with you, Chad. I've come to the other side of this Cowboys team. I'll give you full credit because I just did not see it. I think even you might have even mentioned Sunday night. I totally missed this one, and I'm chasing the number now. All right, well, I'll put it on the list. The last one that I forgot to mention that, like, is still interesting to me”
LAC 34, DAL 17 — Chargers beat the Cowboys 34-17; Cowboys lost outright, busting the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“yeah the one and a half if you can get it that obviously is way better in that type of scenario because say the juice on the one and a half is minus 120 you probably can just take the money line from minus 130 and that's that's probably where you want to be with Dak in this exact matchup because like you said the movement maybe it does scare me because this is a Chargers backdoor type of game but I don't know if the Chargers offense can keep up with this Dallas offense and that's that's my policy here it's like their their defense needed what was a five takeaways against the Eagles to win that game where I think the Eagles may put up 16 on the flip side. The Chiefs, you know, put up 13 points and they were dysfunctional, but they were moving the ball. Like there are ways to move the ball against this Chargers team. I think this might be the exact matchup for this Cowboys team to get right. So since, you know, 2022, Dallas, when they're on their homestead playing against a team that is above 500, Dak 3-0 in this exact spot. So you know once again I trying to find stuff to get off this Cowboys team but it just seems like all the numbers the pros are right right The pros came and have you on this one I didn really understand it I thought this was the Chargers side but the underlying numbers back it up And offensively you know I hate to say they the more desperate team here but the Chargers got their big wins, right? That was an emotional win against the Eagles and a huge emotional win against the Chiefs. You expect them to have a letdown spot against a Dallas team that just got embarrassed in a primetime game. So this feels like another pros versus pros all over the Cowboys team, the public. they will be hammering this Chargers team. So, yeah, I'm with you, Chad. I've come to the other side of this Cowboys team.”
LAC 34, DAL 17 — Chargers beat the Cowboys 34-17; Cowboys lost outright, busting the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I bet the 6 on the Lions team number should be four four and a half”
PIT 29, DET 24 — Steelers beat the Lions 29-24; Lions lost outright, busting the -6 spread (ESPN box score).
“Simon says Presented by Hard Rock Bet We are on the New York football giants plus three against the Minnesota Vikings”
MIN 16, NYG 13 — Vikings beat the Giants 16-13; Giants lost by exactly 3, pushing the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Detroit at the Los Angeles Rams. Line is currently six. We got it at five and a half in the contest. It's a sneaky. You had to be listening to understand that Simon loved this game on Tuesday at five and a half. Still true.”
LAR 41, DET 34 — Rams beat the Lions 41-34; Rams covered -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“push it to the three. You're going to get a ton of money. And like Chad said, a bunch of books have hit the three. But the most interesting one to me is the two or three biggest public books have held at a two and a half and they are taking the most amount of Panthers money. So I'll, I'll stand with the books here. I'll back the saints, but I get why you chose Minnesota”
NO 20, CAR 17 — Saints beat the Panthers 20-17; Saints covered +2.5 by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“We first started talking about this one, I think on Sunday it was at three and a half. By Tuesday it was at four. It's now at five. A lot of other books are five and a half. by the middle of yesterday, I completely came around to your position. I just decided, A, everything you were saying was right. There is going to be extreme weather. The Chargers have so many offensive line issues. So much bad luck is befalling the Chiefs, whether it's bobbled passes, bad calls, all the stuff that went their way for 17 straight close games so i'm with you brother i'm on the chiefs i bet him i bet him i get the line i got was four and a half i did not get the three and a half or the four i got the four and a half because i waited too long but i still went in on it i'm with you i'm with you and i love it let's put it in the contest yeah in our normal circumstances we would be all over the charges this is an automatic chargers play this is a chargers line and Justin Herbert as a dog, very profitable. I believe – I'll look through the numbers here, but we kind of blindly have bet him in this exact spot. But this is what we talked about. This is unique. This is a man that only has one hand. Without his offensive line, even the backups got hurt in the Eagles game. They lost, I think, their third string right tackle in the Eagles game. So just a nightmare. But again, I want to give out these numbers just because in the future, when I tell people you just blindly bet Herbert in the spot, it's because he tends to be really great as a dog in the spot. So when the line's above three and a half in his career, 11-2-1 against the spread Herbert, which is really impressive. You think back to what's the matchup with Andy Reid and Harbaugh, Harbaugh. He's 4-0 against the spread when he plays against Andy Reid in his career. So they do have their number, this Chiefs team, but we're talking about a unique spot here in the fact to what we just talked about, right? It's all the injuries to Herbert and this team. And even going back and rewatching the Eagles game, Herbert you know tried to do so much with his legs but even when he couldn you trying to pass the ball downfield his guys just could not get any separation And that really stood out to me The bar receivers were not getting open for him Keenan Allen does the best he can He can get open in a really quick window, but he's not really someone that's going to burn some of his legs. Obviously, he's someone that's much older now. Lad McConkie's been kind of disappointing this season for them. So it feels like a really bad spot for this Chargers team. And you talked a little bit about this Chiefs team. It's got to flip at some point, right? They basically won 17 consecutive one-score games, and now this year they're 1-6, 0-7 against the spread. So it's not the best, Chad. We've been to a little bit of a scary spot, but I do have to trust the fact that we have a good number. It's still under 6. People listening to this can still get under 6, but I think it's a good number. And I just have major questions about this Chargers offense with the injury to Herbert. The man is one-handed, and he's going to be outdoors in the elements. I feel like it's too much to overcome, Chad. So, yeah, I feel gross doing it, but it feels like this is the exact spot we have to take the Chiefs. I don't feel that gross. It's weird.”
LAC 16, KC 13 — LA Chargers beat Kansas City 16-13; Chiefs margin -3 vs line -5, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“But I just feel like this type of game where they're going to try to take away Gibbs, make Goff beat him downfield, and we've seen it. Goff has not done well with pressure in his face, and it's the exact type of game. They'll get that. So, yeah, I honestly wanted to make this our bet, but unfortunately it's moved too much. Like, it's minus six, which I'm still betting the six. But if this was five and a half, Chad, I think we probably could have agreed on this being the pick for the day. But it's not. Yeah, yeah.”
LAR 41, DET 34 — LA Rams beat Detroit 41-34; Rams margin +7 vs line -6, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“carolina at the new orleans saints new orleans saints plus two and a half this was simon says there were some threes available right after we got off the air on tuesday for much of tuesday there were some threes there it's back down to two and a half i don't i don't think it's gonna last um so i mean i don't think the threes will i think it could get back to three but i don't think the threes are gonna last uh we hate betting against the panthers we hate it especially when they got a chance to take control of the nfc south the darlings the team that we love for years but we're both on the saints here yeah i think i think threes will pop just because the books they're getting so much panthers money i think they're going to need some saints money and the only way they're going to get is by popping that three right not people are going to force and take the two and a half until sunday when they really need to and it's last when i think throughout the week you should see some threes pop up and you know it's just because who's betting the saints right it's it's kind of a spot you don't really want to be back then like from the general public's perspective because they just want a really tough divisional game now coming home you know anybody can look at these numbers but i was alarmed when the buddy sent me these numbers about the saints team and i i gave you the stat right there last week on the road individual as an underdog they're eight no now nine and oh on the road god their home stats are terrible chat i cannot believe how bad these stats are since 2020 is an underdog at home the saints four and 17 straight up five and 16 against the spread that's i mean that's the worst mark in the nfl of any team right but simon what is bryce young on the road as a as a favorite yeah he never covered it doesn exist i just i just that was just a simple saying how bad they been So I love this one Like you just said it two it's two immovable objects meeting and something's got to give, right? So you said at Bryce Young in his early career, he's only been a favorite so many times and, you know, 11 times he's been a straight up favorite. He is not covered or won any of those games. He's 0 and 11. So you're right. It's a unique spot.”
NO 20, CAR 17 — New Orleans beat Carolina 20-17; Saints margin +3 vs line +2.5, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“Everything about this matchup to me, I feel like I'm getting about a point of value. I think that the Packers should be three-point favorites because I think the ultimate decision here, coaching is even, defense probably even. I think the difference is the quarterback, and that's worth a lot to me. Give me the Green Bay Packers. Two points. Favorites. Yeah, we both love the Packers. a game that no matter what, even if it was two and a half, I'd be all over it. I'm not going to let the hook scare me off. Just think, matchup-wise, they're the better team. They should probably be minus three. Tons of respect by the professionals on this Broncos team, for good reason. They're really well-coached. They've really grinded out a lot of these games. We've talked about Bo Nix. As much as he's regressed in some people's eyes this year, he's been incredible in these fourth quarters, leading his team to comeback wins. It's just been really impressive. I gave out that amazing stat by Evan Abrams. It's just a unique spot. This is another team just like the Patriots. They've won 10 straight games, the Broncos, and now they are home underdogs. So since 2005, eight teams have closed an underdog in this exact spot. Two, five and one against the spread, these teams. So it lets you know right there, the Broncos, this is not a good spot. You might think it is. You're getting a home dog here. you're fired up, but long-term, it's just a loser. The books are kind of telling you, right? The professionals are telling you here, which team is the better team. They just threw out the records, right? It matters what happens on the field. And you've seen it this year, in my opinion, the NFC to me is just a better conference than the AFC. Like the AFC, some of these teams have so many more weaknesses than the NFC. And we talked, there's something missing with this Green Bay team. I don't know if the Broncos are the type of team that can exploit those type of scenarios. So I really do love them here. you know if it gets the three I get if you have some type of hesitation there but hopefully you can get the two the minus two and a half there should be up there still by Sunday I just think professional money anytime Broncos touch a three they'll hit it so I'm hoping people won't be scared off by this one I really love the Packers in this spot we're total agreement here uh there's”
DEN 34, GB 26 — Denver beat Green Bay 34-26; Packers margin -8 vs line -2, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“last game on the board that I want to talk about I think should be our Brass Balls bet of the week. Let's do it. The Minnesota Vikings visiting the Dallas Cowboys. Are you with me? Are you with me on the Minnesota Vikings? Love the Vikings. Minnesota Vikings. Should we make it our Brass Balls presented by Hard Rock Bet? Let's do it. Definitely a ballsy bet. All right. Minnesota Vikings plus six at Hard Rock Bet against the Dallas Cowboys. That is our Brass Balls bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Bet.”
MIN 34, DAL 26 — Minnesota beat Dallas 34-26; Vikings margin +8 vs line +6, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“Pittsburgh, Miami. Where were you at? You were on Miami, right? Or were you on Miami? I was on Miami plus three and a half on Tuesday. That to me does feel like the sharp side, the three and a half. But if you're like me and you just don't want to throw out the spread, you want to go strict money line, which is what I want to do here. Some amazing stats about the Steelers money line in this exact opportunity. since 1992 on Monday night football games the Steelers are 22 and 1 straight up their only losses in 2020 against the Commanders I don't know if you remember 2020 there were no stands in the stands yeah that's throw it out they are just unbelievable at home on Monday night if you throw that one out they're 22 and 0 straight up on Monday night football at home since 1992 in his career Aaron Rodgers 11 and 2 straight up on Monday night football so there's just a lot of trends at point to a liking it and let's get to all the two of stats to outdoors in the cold two and seven straight up one and eight against the spread in his career when it's under 40 degrees he's oh and five straight up one and four against the spread losing those games by 19 points per game so my god we know two is horrible in the cold i had no idea the stats were that bad so what chad set can be true right this miami team have been hiding to it for a couple weeks Can they just lean into the run and get away with it? Possibly. But my God, do all those stats point to them just laying a total egg here in Miami, especially coming off a divisional win on the road now traveling to Pittsburgh. It seems like the perfect spot to fade this team. So I'm still going to be dug in. Steelers minus three. I'll still take it. But I could not believe those Monday night stats for this Pittsburgh team historically.”
PIT 28, MIA 15 — Pittsburgh beat Miami 28-15 on Monday night; Steelers moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“So, yeah, this Bucs line, it's fishy. I honestly can't get why it's going the other way because they might be getting back, Worth and Mike Evans, and that's a huge deal to this offense. So I'll take an early position here, especially now at the four at Hard Rock. I'll grab them on this Bucs side on the Thursday night home game.”
ATL 29, TB 28 — Atlanta beat Tampa Bay 29-28 on Thursday night; Buccaneers margin -1 vs line -4, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Right now, one book, one of the more public books, has already hit 10. So that's why, like, people, I think you might be able to be patient here. Yeah. I think you might be able to get to the 10s here on Cardinals. And at that number, I got no issue, no issue taking this Cardinals team. So I'm already dreading it. I already can see our future come Sunday, 10 and a half in contest. Can't avoid that because we've just seen that Jacoby Brissett, his offense, you know, even against good defense, he tends to move the ball. And when, you know, he's playing dead for two or three quarters, he does eventually come to live for two or three drives and moves the ball. So it's a tough, tough, tough bet, Chad, where it's like I can't avoid it. I knew I was going to like it as soon as I saw it. And the fact that it's moved so much, once it hits that 10 number like it is right now, as soon as we get off this call, I'm going to go hammer that number.”
HOU 40, ARI 20 — Houston beat Arizona 40-20; Cardinals margin -20 vs line +10, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“on the Rams yeah I like it a lot again I don't want to mush it what Simon says but this is I feel like this is a very nice number in a nice spot so like I said Hard Rock it's still five here in Jersey shop around people you might be able to still get a five we can hear this but I just see this getting to six by the time most people hear this unfortunately I am going to unload on the Rams. I don't know about that. Betting it all. Yeah. On the Los Angeles Rams.”
LAR 41, DET 34 — LA Rams beat Detroit 41-34; Rams margin +7 vs line -5, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“So I want to get the Saints now at two and a half just in case the pros do come in and hit this down”
NO 20, CAR 17 — New Orleans beat Carolina 20-17; Saints margin +3 vs line +2.5, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“really has a difference of half a point between these two guys so it's if we believe in a chad we're simply betting a good number which hard rock is right now minus three and a half because this number is going to four and a half forward a lot of books and we're banking on this defense in this weather at home it just feels like a unique spot so i'm still in on it i don't know if you're if you want to join me like i've joked about it i i am probably over 100 on this tennessee team these last two years but i just feel like this is a unique spot back on this browns team we have no rhythm when it comes to the tennessee titans none zero we we we cannot catch the falling knife on this team but but we have a lot of rhythm with the browns yeah and so i've i'm still on it i've dead into it i'm not walking away from it let's just commit to it I love what I didn't have three and a half.”
TEN 31, CLE 29 — Tennessee beat Cleveland 31-29; Browns margin -2 vs line -3.5, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“by the saints if you go back and watch it but we do give some grace that was when we think baker had an injury he didn disclose and he was fighting through and they had a bunch of injuries injuries obviously to the offense No Godwin no Mike Evans no Bucky Irving So yeah this matchup for me it really just backing about the public just moving this number too much and overrating this Bucs team that, yes, they're going to be better now. They have a lot of their guys back. But that defense, there ain't no guy coming off the bench that's going to save this defense for this Bucs team. They have been terrible against the run, and they've really struggled this season with teams that can push the ball downfield, which as much crap we'd like to give Shuck, he's actually been pretty good pushing the ball downfield consistently. So, yeah, we both love this number, and really it's about the line. Plus 8.5 at every book. I can't avoid it.”
NO 24, TB 20 — New Orleans beat Tampa Bay 24-20; Saints margin +4 vs line +8.5, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“What do you think of Tampa Bay as a five and a half point favorite at home against Atlanta right now? I love it but I don't get why the number is so short like it's other the pros just keep betting this Atlanta team they keep acting Kirk Cousins it's very bizarre so I thought this would be seven seven and a half like it just Falcons with Shuck are no worse than this Atlanta team with Kirk Cousins So and no Drake London once again So I don know It I hit this number early but if Drake London gets cleared maybe this drops down more and I'll take a larger position. But this is like one of the first lines I hit when it opened. I just – anything under seven I'm going to hammer against this Atlanta team. They're just so bad. Yeah, I think without Drake London, they really can't function. We saw it today. It's why we were talking about do we want to take Atlanta seven and a half. You were on Seattle. I liked Atlanta, but only if they had Drake London. So that's why it was sort of a pass for us. The wise guys phenomenally were all over Atlanta this week. They loved them. They loved them this week. All right. So you hit the Bucs. Nothing crazy. I just took a little position on them.”
ATL 29, TB 28 — Atlanta beat Tampa Bay 29-28 on Thursday night; Buccaneers margin -1 vs line -5.5, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm still on Washington. I still like them as a dog, especially the fact that it's up two and a half in a lot of books right now.”
MIN 31, WSH 0 — Vikings shut out Commanders 31-0 in Week 14; Washington lost by 31, margin -31 vs the +2.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“And this line did get to plus two for a second. And now it's been back down to one and a half. This is like clearly the line of demarcation for the wise guys is too. I feel like you and I have probably come around and are going to be betting the Jags because I'm I'm I'm worried about Daniel Jones. That's to me the issue.”
JAX 36, IND 19 — Jaguars beat Colts 36-19 in Week 14; Jacksonville won by 17, margin +17 vs the +1.5 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“my model has it right at this so my model has it too you know I think we're getting a good number on the Jets at two and a half especially at three but I get why there's just not a ton of love from most professionals I've talked to where they're playing the Jets but it's not like they're like no you have to bet this this is exact spot you want to back this Jets team I feel like they have the same mentality as I do is like man we got away one last week really got to go back to this well and hammer this one, but we just, we love, both of us love this matchup. It's just this Miami's defense is so bad. Taylor's going to be able to move the ball against him. Can they get stops against Tua after, you know, last week Tua had a terrible game. Historically, when you dive into his trends, he tends to bounce back after really bad games. Every time he, him and McDaniels, it's just that combo. You know, any game he goes without throwing a touchdown in the following game, he averages 2.3 touchdowns per game. So it's just, again, lazy stat, but it just shows he tends to bounce back after struggling the game before. So just to be something weary of, but this is another game that if we wake up Sunday, Chad, and it is 25 degrees, a little bit of rain, kind of windy out, I will have to put this one up. There's any type of winter elements in this game, but if it's a perfect sunny day, maybe I'll be able to talk us out of it and lie to myself being like, nah, don't go too hard here on this Jets team. But I love the plus three, and you do as well, so it's going to be hard to avoid it. Yeah, I agree with you.”
MIA 34, NYJ 10 — Dolphins beat Jets 34-10 in Week 14; New York lost by 24, margin -24 vs the +3 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“So I really do like this Browns game. It's another game just like the Jets one where I know it's probably an overreaction on my part to it, but I just think the Lions move too much. I don't think the Jets should be plus three. I don't think the Browns here should be minus three and a half. It just feels like too much of an overreaction by a lot of these professionals.”
TEN 31, CLE 29 — Titans beat Browns 31-29 in Week 14; Cleveland lost outright by 2, margin -2 vs the -3.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to hold my line here. Back to Seahawks team on the road. The numbers move too much. Minus seven. I got to take the Seahawks.”
SEA 37, ATL 9 — Seahawks beat Falcons 37-9 in Week 14; Seattle won by 28, margin +28 vs the -7 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“[48:19] Minus five and a half point favorites. [48:21] against their division rivals. [48:23] This is going to be our Brass Balls Bet of the Week [48:28] presented by Hard Rock Bet. [48:32] You know what it takes? [48:33] It takes brass balls. [48:37] We've made the very hard decision [48:39] to back the Baltimore Ravens at minus five and a half.”
PIT 27, BAL 22 — Steelers beat Ravens 27-22 in Week 14; Baltimore lost outright by 5, margin -5 vs the -5.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“He's absolutely owned Arizona McVay as a head coach. He just has their number in matchup scheme wise. He does really well against them. So not going to let the big number scare us off, Chad. Minus seven and a half. I'm going to take down this Rams team.”
ARI 17, LAR 45 — Rams beat Cardinals 45-17 in Week 14; Los Angeles won by 28, margin +28 vs the -7.5 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“Kansas City's still at minus three, minus 120 at hard rock bet. Mostly three and a halves elsewhere. As I just said, if the Chiefs gone the way of the Lions, is it time to get off them this year? Is there still magic in the number three? Can they break the trend of losing all these close games? Will there be regression back to the mean in a positive way for the Kansas City Chiefs? This game has massive, massive playoff implications for both teams. It is the tipping point fulcrum moment for these teams in the season. The Texans' defense is awesome. But I'm always going to be loathe to bet against Patrick Mahomes at home as a short favorite in a must-have scenario. scenario That is one that I that is a bridge too far I can walk away I can be the one who betting against someone who might go down as the greatest quarterback ever and is still in his prime Yeah If you want to join the public and the professionals there on the Texas like Chad talked about it it really about the number right? The chief team isn't good enough to be favored minus three and a half, which is what I think a lot of pros in the public are taking that position on, which I totally get. We're talking minus three here at hard rock, which hopefully in our contest, God bless hard rock. They'll give us two and a half yeah because that will be an automatic play in my opinion on this chief team because that to me would be too much a reaction and this is me simon guy who's been fading this chiefs team non-stop since that bills game i think you know i took a position against them with denver they were minus four favorite they lost outright took a position against them against the colts like they were minus four and a half they closed favorite they won by three took a position against them with the dallas cowboys minus half uh plus three and a half on dallas they lost outright to Dallas. So we've seen these last three games, it all comes down to last position. Like Chad said, it's eventually got to go the other way, right? This Chiefs, mathematically, they can't keep losing these one-score games, right? And we've seen Mahomes tend to excel that this year it just not has been that way, right? When they get in these close games, it's either he's not had the ball in his hands and the other team's just eating the clock up, or he goes in there and it's just not been Mahomes-like, right? He's made the mistakes and not brought his team back from depth. So I love how desperate this Chiefs team is going to be. But on the flip side, I get people's position. Texans are just as desperate. They know they're playing for the division, their own playoff lives. So I get why people are taking their position on this Texans team. But I've wanted to be on the Chiefs team all week. I wanted to be patient and let the number get to a position where I feel comfortable betting it. It's at that spot. I'm going to take the minus three and pray the pros keep coming on Texas.”
HOU 20, KC 10 — Texans beat Chiefs 20-10 in Week 14; Kansas City lost outright by 10, margin -10 vs the -3 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“give me the saints plus eight and a half”
TB 20, NO 24 — Saints beat Buccaneers 24-20 in Week 14; New Orleans won by 4, margin +4 vs the +8.5 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“It's going to be the Washington Commanders at plus one.”
MIN 31, WSH 0 — Vikings shut out Commanders 31-0 in Week 14; Washington lost by 31, margin -31 vs the +1 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm with you. I'm definitely not as confident. There's other dogs I like more this week, honestly, now that we're here on Sunday. I still like the Jets, still bet them. But it's going to be a tough choice to make, Chad, because they're two and a half. They're three and a half for our contest. I would have happily put them in. But at 2.5, I don't know how much I love it because I really honestly always say, with this Jets team, I need every point. Yes. And it's really been true. Like last week, I think they were 13.5 or 14. The spread literally landed on three. So they're the type of team they play up to that number. You do need the best number you can possibly get with this Jets team. And at 2.5 for our contest, I bet it at 2.5, so it's like I do believe in it. But I don't know if it's one of my five favorite bets of this week, I'll be honest with you.”
NYJ 27, ATL 24 — Jets beat Falcons 27-24; New York won outright, margin +3 vs the +2.5 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“No, again, this is following really respected money and talking to guys. This would have definitely been on sharp calls. is a very sharp side this titans team especially if you can get the six and a half now i'm looking now i'm assuming most people won't be able to the best i'm seeing um is six and yeah like hard rock they're down at six now so it just seems like the professionals have hit it it's the best you might be able to get is six um this really is a little bit what you talked about right they've been backdooring teams but we talk all the time when teams backdoor consistently it's yeah it's a lot of luck, but also just shows how the market continues to undervalue them, right? They keep hitting that certain number. And it's not like they're covering by a ton, right? Like you just said, they're backdooring by either half a point or a point. So the books have been really sharp on it. The professionals have been all over. And like we said, we keep missing it. This is, we talked around the week, this is either Tennessee or nothing at all for either of us. I still like Tennessee, still like the number.”
JAX 25, TEN 3 — Jaguars beat Titans 25-3; Tennessee lost by 22, margin -22 vs the +6 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to trust the pros here and back that number of three with the Steelers team.”
BUF 26, PIT 7 — Bills beat Steelers 26-7; Pittsburgh lost by 19, margin -19 vs the +3 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“we put a little on the Giants money line because this is the exact type of game that could get stolen from this Patriots team”
NE 33, NYG 15 — Patriots beat Giants 33-15 on Monday Night Football; New York lost outright, moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I took a large position on the two and a half on Tampa, hoping it was going to be Baker. It is Baker now, and now they're minus three and a half.”
TB 20, ARI 17 — Buccaneers beat Cardinals 20-17; Tampa Bay won by 3, margin +3 vs the -2.5 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“Pittsburgh plus three, Giants seven and a half, Commanders plus six and a half. [31:29] Like I've really I've loaded up on all these late primetime games today.”
DEN 27, WSH 26 — Broncos beat Commanders 27-26 in OT; Washington lost by 1, margin -1 vs the +6.5 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“i mean are we supposed to go back and take the jets again at plus 30 yes i mean that's insane i immediately put that down we might have like a northeastern crazy snowstorm up here in the northeast when this game is happening so we're getting two outdoors potentially in the weather let's grab that early plus three in case that is true and this number moves a ton um”
MIA 34, NYJ 10 — Dolphins beat Jets 34-10 in Week 14; New York lost by 24, margin -24 vs the +3 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“see it moving colts they're minus one and a half i'm worried it might flip because i just don't know if if jones got more banged up today and they're going to sit him out this could move i'm going to roll the dice on the early risk and just take it now in case he is all okay to go”
JAX 36, IND 19 — Jaguars beat Colts 36-19 in Week 14; Indianapolis lost outright by 17, margin -17 vs the -1.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“And they're one and a half point underdogs right now i bet it but i i'm i feel bad because i'm super biased i already talked about i'm heavy into the commanders tonight um you know i put them another contest them in uh it was one of my five favorite bets and um these last two games i'm really big on them tonight commanders and the giants and i think i talked about dr nick gave it out they're both huge luck discrepancies so uh should be the type of game where the bounces should go their way”
MIN 31, WSH 0 — Vikings shut out Commanders 31-0 in Week 14; Washington lost by 31, margin -31 vs the +1.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“Yeah this is my Simon Says but give me the Eagles minus six and a half at Hard Rock”
24-15 — Bears beat Eagles 24-15 on Black Friday; Philadelphia lost outright by 9, busting the -6.5 line (ESPN box score).
“i was like okay the pros will come in on it i did not see a move in a point because like you said i mean hard rock's at four but it's four and a half a lot of books so yeah that was shocking to me yeah it's it's tempting they're begging us now to come on the texans but yeah i'm gonna hold firm like this match with this colts team offensively and um we saw a little bit last week i talked about it i think the fact they got ward back defensively him and sauce now is their one and two corners that to me was a big deal like they did shut down that passing game for a long time in that chiefs game eventually mahomes he did the mahomes thing where he scrambles around in circles and eventually guys get open is cj gonna be doing that his first game back after a concussion i don't know i see him playing a little timid here so i definitely like this number on this colts team”
20-16 — Texans beat Colts 20-16; Indianapolis lost outright by 4, busting the -4 line (ESPN box score).
“Guess what, Simon? It is time for Chad's Choice, presented by Hard Rock Bet. Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice? My choice. We can't run from who we are. Sharp dudes can just see it. You know what I mean? I'm going with the Cleveland Browns plus five and a half at home against the San Francisco 49ers. I feel like I dodged a bullet last night. uh i nearly pulled the trigger on the panthers at plus seven and a half like you and i we discussed it all week and like there was something we just couldn't quite get there on the panthers at least for purposes of the show and i was uh so tempted it was like i was still debating it up until about 6 30 uh and then i spoke to a buddy of mine mike kerns actually who you know was at the chernan group recruited me to help uh help them all launch action and massive niners fan and he walked me back on the panthers didn't go exactly as sort of the blowout that i think we had convinced ourselves it would be san francisco played fine brock purdy you know three picks the panthers are really the reason why they didn't cover that game the missed field goals the picks from Bryce Young. But we now got the San Francisco 49ers on the road. This number is moved from six and a half. So I'm betting into a number that's moved. But at the end of the day, it's not about Dylan Gabriel being quarterbacked. It's not about Shredor Sanders being quarterback. It's about the Browns at home as a dog with this defense that is going to be much more effective than anything they saw against the Panthers. We both like this on Sunday night when the Browns were six and a half. That's when I bet it, but I'm still betting into it at five and a half. Yeah, fortunately, I did. I did take the Panthers last. I knew I was going to, but it was just as soon as I won that Rams game and had all that money. I was like, well, I can't just take this home with me. I got to put some of this on the Panthers. And like you said, those picks by Purdy felt pretty good. But he did exactly what we worried about, right? It was the game after his historical best game of his career. He just totally meltdown and played terrible for this game. I mean, I can't believe people are back in the 49ers here. I'm so happy to see these numbers come down, Chad, because yes, it had gone up to six and a half, which I said it might. We talked a little bit Sunday night, but I was like, what pros are hammering this 49ers team on the road here? Like this is – I don't feel like this is the right spot to be backing Purdy in this game. And, you know, as much as we want to fade Sanders after his big win, and my God, like him talking in front of a mic, I get why this coach won't say his name in press conferences. He must just hate how cocky and arrogant this kid is for, you know, doing the bare minimum in this. We have 11 passes or 11 competitions in that game. So, you know, I love Sanders. I feel like the locker room loves them. The fan base seems to love them. So as much as negativity this coach has brought around it, it feels like everything I've read the reports and seen stuff with the Cleveland team, they've really rallied around this kid. I believe they named him the starter already for this game. Yeah, they have. They did. So that part should be part of why the number moved as well, just because maybe most people have him graded now higher than Dylan Gabriel, because at least he does do one thing very well, which you can't say for Gabriel, which is pushing the ball downfield. He does have a pretty good arm. So, yeah, this matchup, we've talked about it. We just don't trust this 49ers defense. We think they're suspect. Even against Carolina, Carolina felt like they were moving the ball pretty well. It was just the Bryce Young turnovers that kept killing them. And, you know, Canales, all of a sudden the most aggressive coach in the world, is now playing cautious. What the fuck? I mean, seriously. Like it just, there's no rhyme or reason. I complained about this with a lot of these coaches this year It like the one day they do one thing the next day they feel a different way It like it doesn feel like they listening to any type of math or just going strictly off gut which is not the right way to be um but yeah for this game Chad nailed it like I I love this Browns team it's it's unfortunate it's still not six we talk all the time it's such a key number but you know this game should be closer to four three and a half we're getting some free points here on a 49ers team that you know they finally did it they covered a game after they had won a game so now they're 2 and 15 after it went against the spread I'm gonna keep going after that trend and I feel like another good spot where um we thought we thought the number would catch up to this Browns team at home feels like the books still haven't caught up to it feels like we're still getting away with one here on this Browns team at home just how different they do play and um really diving into it the way this matchup is going to play out you know can Purdy beat us sure We know that that's going to work out, but you already know they're going to scheme up to take away Christian McCaffrey. I'm excited to see what this offense can do without him because even that Carolina game, I feel like every time they needed a big play, once again, it was McCaffrey getting that third down pickup. Once you put it on Purdy, I feel like he's going to struggle. So I love this matchup with you as well on this Browns team.”
26-8 — 49ers beat Browns 26-8; Cleveland lost outright by 18, busting the +5.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers. The Carolina Panthers are 10-point home underdogs. And this started going up after the Rams' dominant performance against the Bucs. Even, you know, in that first half, it was starting to move. It's interesting. It's the second week in a row where the bookmakers are showing us how much more they respect the NFC West than the NFC South, right? Last week, the Bucs go into Los Angeles to play the Rams, six and a half, seven point underdogs. The Panthers go into California, go into San Francisco, and they play the Panthers, seven, seven and a half point underdogs. Now, all of a sudden, they're going to play the Panthers. The Panthers are 10 point dogs to the Rams in Carolina. So are the bookmakers telling us that the Carolina Panthers, who are a 500 team, would be 16 point underdogs to the Rams in Los Angeles? Like this number is massive. Maybe like a 13 point dog is what they're saying. But I I get where they're coming from. like honestly I'm betting this this Carolina team I know I mean we both are gonna bet them like we love this this feels like a great matchup and a spot for them to bounce back and um as great as”
28-31 — Panthers beat Rams 31-28; Carolina won outright by 3, covering the +10 line (ESPN box score).
“They are seven and a half point underdogs, Monday night football. We don't know at this point if it's going to be Jameis or Jackson Dart. My feeling is it's going to be Jackson Dart. He did practice last week. He traveled with the team. That indicates to me that he's probably going to be ready to go. I think the real issue here, Simon, is who's playing on the left side of the offensive line for the New England Patriots? because they had players just being carted off on Sunday in that game that they barely covered against the Bengals. So I know where I'm going to lean in this game. Do you want to say it? Do you want me to say it? Do we want to be discussing together? Do you want to say it on the count of three? One, two, three. Giants? Giants, Giants, Giants, Giants. You weren't with me on that. We weren't coordinated. Well, Zoom, it sinks us out, I thought, if we say it at the same time. But yeah, I love the Giants as well. We talked before the show.”
15-33 — Patriots beat Giants 33-15 on Monday Night Football; New York lost outright by 18, busting the +7.5 line (ESPN box score).
“just strictly going off the number i i prefer obviously the colts because we're getting the three and a half hook but that's kind of what that's my thinking is i think they're two and a half versus three and a half so give me the colts getting more than a field goal”
20-23 — Chiefs beat Colts 23-20 in overtime; Indianapolis lost by only 3, covering the +3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“i took the lions they're minus three right now against green”
31-24 — Packers beat Lions 31-24 on Thanksgiving; Detroit lost by 7, busting the -3 line (ESPN box score).
“threw a little on dallas third plus three and a half against the chiefs at home”
28-31 — Cowboys beat Chiefs 31-28 on Thanksgiving; Dallas won outright by 3, covering the +3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“i threw a little on the bangles plus eight and a half on thursday night against uh”
14-32 — Bengals beat Ravens 32-14 on Thanksgiving; Cincinnati won by 18, covering the +8.5 line (ESPN box score).
“But anything above six plus six or above I think is a good number for this Browns team in this matchup And I can believe it but Colts minus three and a half at home against the Houston Texans I know they're saying CJ is going to be back. I just, I think the love for Houston is going to be at its peak right now. People are just really loving this team. That's why they're kind of sucking in with this hook here. So I'm going to take that early number just in case CJ is out again. It is Davis Mills. I know he's 3-0 and people are loving it, but I don't know if this is a great spot. Davis Mills on the road indoors in this type of crowd environment. So that was another early line I grabbed.”
16-20 — Texans beat Colts 20-16; Indianapolis lost outright by 4, busting the -3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I'm definitely going to be on Houston at plus six.”
23-19 — Texans beat Bills 23-19 on Thursday Night Football; Houston +6 covers easily (ESPN box score).
“But like you said, I'm in on Seahawks at 13.”
30-24 — Seahawks beat Titans 30-24, a 6-point margin that falls short of the -13 line; Seattle busts (ESPN box score).
“If you want to hear all the trends I read out, check out Tuesday's show. But it's not only is a great matchup on paper and through the numbers, but there's tons of data and trends that show this spot is unique to this Lions team with golf and Campbell. They usually win and cover. The one I will bring up again is when they're above a four favorite and after a loss at home, eight no against the spread in this exact spot. So play the number here. We'll take the Lions. And like I said, it's a rare spot. I usually don't give out double-digit favorites as my favorite bet of the week. But I thought I was going to keep going up. Like you just said, Chad, it's down to 10 out of hard rock. So I'm going to take that value and bet this number again.”
27-34 — Lions beat Giants 34-27 in overtime, a 7-point margin that falls short of the -10 line; Detroit busts (ESPN box score).
“So, yeah, I just look at the matchup wise. I kind of like this matchup for the Bears in a lot of ways, but we go back to it. It's how long can they keep getting away with this? They're just not that good of a team that has a ton of wins. But if this drops some more and it is Rodgers back, I'm going to end up on the Bears chat. But two and a half, I'll still be on Pittsburgh. Once this dips below two, it's like this becomes a Bears line. This is a pretty evenly matched team and bears do have somewhat of a home field advantage. So I just, if it moves too much off the Rogers news, I'll, I'll take a position on the bears if I need to.”
28-31 — Bears beat Steelers 31-28; Pittsburgh lost outright, busting the -2.5 line (ESPN box score).
“forward slash screenings. New England at Cincinnati. Cincinnati is now a six and a half point dog. Crazy, crazy swings in this game on six and a half at Hard Rock Bat, seven other places. this game it was seven and a half on Tuesday we thought it was going to be Joe Flacco we knew there would be no Jamar Chase at some point I know in my notes I saw this game go to eight and a half and now it's down to six and a half we're talking about Joe Burrow we're still getting 70 percent of the bets coming in on New England but obviously news about who's going to be playing quarterback for the Bengals is changing a lot of the the market in this game yeah and it's kind of crazy that um we just I was not expecting Joe bro I don't know about you I had heard he might be back Thanksgiving yeah or after Thanksgiving like Thanksgiving was gonna be pushing it because it's a Thursday game out see against that Ravens but incredible just we talk all the time just how far health medicine all of it has come for these athletes and like the fact that he is back potentially starting this week is pretty incredible so joe flacco is a point better than joe burrow that was the most shocking part to me it only moved the point it only moved most books of seven and a half to six and a half so yeah i don't know or i guess a couple books did touch eight and a half but yeah i was just shocked it only moved that much um still like cincy if it is Joe Burrow. You know, a little worrisome because he is coming in cold, I guess you could say, right? He hasn't had the reps. He's coming in in a weird spot and, you know, it's not ideal, but I still think you're getting a great number. I just can't get over the fact that this Patriots team, like I gave out that stat. It's just never a good stat or good spot, I should say, to be in an eight-game win streak on the road as a big favorite. And the number has moved, so maybe I'm overreading it. There is value on the Patriots now, but I still think this is a bangles number. Like to me, Joe Burrow, if he was healthy mid-season playing, even if the record is what it is, this line would not be above three and a half four So are we getting an extra two and a half points Cause it Joe Burrow coming a little cold and the books don really know how to price it and there no chase Like you know it just I see why the public is still going to be on this Patriots team. So I went from liking the Spanglers team to like kind of loving this spot now where it's like, this is the exact situation you want to be in. It's just, it depends on the number. If people don't feel comfortable now that it's moved off to seven, I get it. But every book is six and a half. You're just – that's what it is. So, once again, like I said on Tuesday, I wasn't making people rush to bet it because I didn't know where the quarterback was going to be. I had no idea it was going to be Joe Burrow. So, I hope people grabbed it. I said I bet it on Tuesday at the 7. At this point, I'm going to bet it again just in case it keeps dropping.”
26-20 — Patriots beat Bengals 26-20; Cincinnati lost by only 6, covering the +6.5 line (ESPN box score).
“playing the number strictly three and a half that's where i got to be with this colts team”
20-23 — Chiefs beat Colts 23-20 in overtime; Indianapolis lost by only 3, covering the +3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I'm I'm I'm more so like I've said, I'm heavy on the money line for this Raiders team.”
24-10 — Browns beat Raiders 24-10; Las Vegas lost outright, so the moneyline bet busts (ESPN box score).
“We're taking the Cardinals at a good number at plus three.”
27-24 — Jaguars beat Cardinals 27-24 in overtime, a 3-point margin that exactly matches the +3 line; Arizona pushes (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, and hopefully people can get this before it moves to two. A hard rockin' jersey here just moved to two while we're doing this live, honestly. And a lot of books are flying. So, two real public books out there are still at the one and a half, which I hope people can get but um talk a little bit about it like this is a split game i know some pros do every time it touches two they're going to take atlanta and on the flip side with the saints every time it's at this number minus one and a half every pro i know is going to take the saints so it's been really fun where it's a lot of back and forth and it's really about what you just said atlanta they're not that bad of a team like if you go through a lot of their games i mean they they could have beat the patriots they could have beat the colts right Those are huge, massive wins that could have really flipped their season. But they've struggled in those close one-score games, and I do put that on the coaching. So I don't think Kirk is an upgrade to Penix. And you said the number one weapon on that team is going to be out as well, Drake London. Right. I can't believe we talked a little bit on Tuesday about it, and I gave out all those Kirk stats, how horrible he's been. Once you really dive into it, though, and the injuries this team has had at Atlanta, how do you not love the Saints here? So I'm glad to see it's moving it, too. At least it shows me that real money is coming in heavily finally on the Saints team, which to me makes sense. So I hope people can get the one and a half here when they hear it”
24-10 — Falcons beat Saints 24-10; New Orleans lost outright by 14, busting the -1.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Cowboys plus three and a half, I've taken a pretty big position.”
21-24 — Cowboys beat Eagles 24-21; Dallas won outright by 3, covering the +3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“And yeah, we're just on opposite sides. You like the Bucs, but I don't think you'll take the Bucs here at minus 6.5. I think you'll just – or plus 6.5. You'll just wait. Grab the 7. We're on the Rams. If you're getting this now, I would take the 6.5 now because I only think this goes up. I just don't see it coming down just because I think Bucky will be out.”
7-34 — Rams beat Buccaneers 34-7; Los Angeles won by 27, covering the -6.5 line (ESPN box score).
“against this texans defense that's really going to be the game seattle minus 13 versus tennessee they're visiting the tennessee titans we talked about this one on sunday night you pegged it immediately. I know I bet Seattle on Sunday at 12 and a half. I'm assuming you did as well. Totally a big number, but the defense is as good as let's say Houston's that just played the Titans and held them to 13 points. And it took a miracle to get there. And it's offense is so much better than Houston's or the Chargers for that matter, both of which were in position to cover big numbers late in the game. So I feel like the universe should write itself with this one. Yeah, and I said this is a spot I would never usually take. I just blindly would take home dog. especially this big. And a lot of the numbers do back it up, playing dogs this big at home, just so people know why. This is a rare spot for me to take the Cialis. So since 2020, favorites of 11 points or more, 3-7 against the spread, which is pretty bad. They're actually 5-5 straight up in those games. So it's a weird thing where these teams that are big favorites, juggernauts, lose these games. but I don't think it's here. I think we just saw Tennessee's best shot the week before in a divisional game. I agree. Now they're facing an absolute juggernaut. So I just said those trends just to give up. People couldn't believe when I was saying I like the Seahawks. And I said I usually blindly would bet Tennessee in the spot, but this lane of season with a number this big, like I said, the books were going to be begging for Tennessee money, and they opened it too short, and I think it's still too short. Like, why is this not above 14 here? So Tennessee, we've seen it this year. We've been burned by these fluky random points they get. Like Chad said, those late touchdowns or field goals by Ward. They just they've been a covering machine. But here it feels like it's a great spot for Seattle. They are eight and two against the spread this season, Seattle. So like they've been covering pretty well with these big numbers. And it's really if you go and look, it's them being up on bad teams. They do really well against bad teams. So I think it's just their defense is so, so well coached. They really don't give an inch. And then offensively, we just saw Sam Darnold have his worst game of the year. It just feels like the exact spot he needs to get right. So with Jeffrey Simmons back, I don't really think Seattle will have much of a run game option. But passing-wise, they should torch this secondary. So, yeah, still like this number as long as you're getting under 14. Look, the run game hasn't been that great anyways. That's been sort of the issue for Seattle. So I think this is a really good opportunity for Darnold to get right. And I think we did get a little bit of a lower number on Sunday. and even today because of the stink of what Darnold did and people thinking, oh, Sam Darnold, he's back, he's seeing ghosts again. I don't think that's the case. We've seen him have bad games. He had a bad game in the playoffs last year against the Rams and then came back and has been an MVP candidate for most of the year. So this is when you reassert yourself as an MVP candidate is against a very bad Tennessee Titans team. I broke my rule last week. I just said I will blindly bet Seattle as a road team They just been so good to me Under their head coach they 9 against the spread in this season They 5 They're just covering machines on the road. They just get up under McDonald's. You've got to bet it. I'm trying not to let the numbers scare me off. It's an insane number, but I think Seattle's worthy of it.”
SEA 30, TEN 24 — Seahawks beat Titans 30-24; Seattle's 6-point win fell well short of the -13 spread (ESPN box score).
“But also Jalen Hyatt just gave up on the route. And this was not a Jameis Winston tragedy. It was Jalen Hyatt not doing his job. I don't know that the Giants have the same dead cat bounce against a desperate. desperate, and that's what they are right now, Detroit Lions team. It's shockingly going to be my Simon Says check. Simon Says, presented by Hard Rock Bet. Minus 10.5. I want to play a game, Simon Says. Wow. It's a big favorite, but it's really about this Lions”
DET 34, NYG 27 — Lions beat Giants 34-27 in overtime; Detroit's 7-point win fell short of the -10.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I got to give out the seven and a half on the Bengals.”
NE 26, CIN 20 — Patriots beat Bengals 26-20; Cincinnati's 6-point loss stayed within the +7.5 spread, a cover (ESPN box score).
“right they have not had anywhere near as bad as injury luck as that bill's defense has had so yeah it's six and a half i get why the pros are bad in this rams team i get why this number is moved so i'll go with the pros or i'll bet with the rams but i hate it i hate going against baker but he just seems like he struggles in the spot hate it here's what's interesting here's what's”
LAR 34, TB 7 — Rams beat Buccaneers 34-7; Los Angeles' 27-point win covered the -6.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“To me I am 100 betting against the Steelers defense and betting on T Higgins Jamar Chase being able to find ways to get downfield against a really really really bad Steelers defensive backfield right now Cincinnati Bengals plus five and a half. If you can find it, which you should be able to, we're on the Bengals.”
PIT 34, CIN 12 — Steelers beat Bengals 34-12; Cincinnati's 22-point loss busted the +5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Like we talked, there's a show. It was three at Hard Rock. Three and a half got touched on a bunch of books, including Hard Rock, and they immediately got bet down. So we talk all the time. There's some really sharp groups that use Hard Rock. They clearly are taking a stand at Seahawks at three and a half. They feel like that's too much. We love them at three. Even better, we get a two and a half in our contest. So I just don't know how we avoid this one. I really love this number. All right. Los Angeles Rams. We're on them at three.”
LAR 21, SEA 19 — Rams beat Seahawks 21-19; Los Angeles' 2-point margin fell short of the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“So yeah it there an eight out there like Chet said at Hard Rock I don want to be scared off if you get seven and a half I don't see us landing on eight. I think seven and a half is plenty of points in this matchup. All right. We're in on the Cleveland Browns.”
BAL 23, CLE 16 — Ravens beat Browns 23-16; Cleveland's 7-point loss stayed within the +7.5 spread, a cover (ESPN box score).
“Philadelphia is a two and a half point favorite. This, Simon, is our Rockin' a Hard Place Bet of the Week presented by Hard Rock Bet. Look, you just talked about Detroit is becoming the public dog for the week. It's probably what's been tamping down this number and keeping it at two and a half at Hard Rock. It's starting to move to three in some other places. That tells me that the professionals are finally coming in full force on Philadelphia here. Lots of reasons to like the Eagles. Lots of reasons to like the Lions. I'm going to go with what we've been talking about all week. I know people are saying, there are stories every day that there are problems with this Eagles offense. To me, they are different than the problems last year. The problems last year seemed like Jalen Hurts was lacking confidence. Jalen Hurst does not seem to be lacking confidence this year. Jalen Hurst seems to be playing a very conservative type of football where he is doing what he needs to do to get his team in a position to win. That puts them in a position to win a close game against a very good team by a field goal. The flip side, the Lions have so many injuries, again, on defense that it's going to be hard for them to execute as they normally would against still a very, very good Eagles offense. So we're on the Eagles. Yeah, and this should be a get-right spot for this Eagles offense.”
PHI 16, DET 9 — Eagles beat Lions 16-9; Philadelphia's 7-point win covered the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, it is three and a half. All right. So this is what I put in, Chad. I just give you what I put in for us after Thursday show I put in Eagles minus one and plus 8 LA minus 2 I put your Cincy in at plus 5 and then I had Carolina in at plus 3.5. Now, I still like Carolina, but you can tell I'm not as confident as I was on Thursday's show. I just don't like the stuff I've read and seen from Bryce Young at a practice this week, but I still think it's such a huge number for an Atlanta team I just do not believe in to be favored in. I got to tell you, I like the Panthers more than I like the Raiders.”
CAR 30, ATL 27 — Panthers beat Falcons 30-27 in overtime; Carolina's outright win covered the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Let's first talk about Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, which no one has mentioned. The line been generally holding at five and a half bumped down to five at hard rock bet But I seeing other places where the juice is indicating it going to go up to six I honestly surprised and a little bit disappointed that it hasn't been more aggressively moving to five like we're seeing at Hard Rock. Obviously, I bet into it at five and a half. To me, it entirely comes down to the offensive weapons for the Bengals. And I know everyone's going to say everything they want to about the Steelers could be a bounce back spot. Aaron Rodgers played terrible. Maybe the lines deflated a little bit because of how bad the Steelers did against the Chargers. Maybe Aaron Rodgers and Pat Friermuth and Jalen Warren can get right against a terrible, terrible, terrible Bengals defense. We know how bad the Bengals defense is. We've also seen how good the Bengals offense can be, especially against a suspect defense. And right now, the Steelers secondary is sus. Like, it's just terrible. How are they going to defend against an exceptional group of receivers and Joe Flacco, who he's ageless? Yeah, and we were both a little weird this one. and we just understand the line. That's another game we just thought would make more sense at 3-3.5. Like we said, it was just two weeks ago this Bengals team upset and beat the Steelers team. And Steelers are banged up. Like they're not healthy. They have a bunch of injuries and a bunch of key positions as well. Bengals, like you just said, coming off a bye week. I mean, I thought it was funny. Joe Burrow, who's rushing back, which is really impressive, great for him. But that's not going to fix any of their issues. Like this Bengals team. They literally have been scoring more points, averaging more points with Flacco at the helm than Joe. It doesn't matter. He's just not the fix. This defense is just atrocious. So I agree with you. The number makes sense. We'll grab it and hope for a backdoor. Maybe Joe will have the lead and the backdoor will come from Rodgers. And we still have a key number above three, and that won't matter for us. But I thought it was interesting looking at Zach Taylor, the head coach. what can we take away from him in these type of situations after a bye week is he a good coach does he get guys prepared he is one and four against the spread yeah i i don't expect anything from zach taylor i mean zach taylor man just whoo some people it's crazy so he's I mean, I can't blame him. The offense has been good with Flacco, a lot of stuff, but apparently it's just been all matchup based. So the last time they played, Joe Flacco made fun of the Spitzbrook team. He said he didn't even know the Bengals' offense. They were just running the same zone scheme over and over again. So I'm looking for reasons to avoid it because this number feels so fishy to me. I'm going to join you. I'm going to bet the Bengals, but I have not made this one of my bigger bets this week. I just – I don't know.”
PIT 34, CIN 12 — Steelers beat Bengals 34-12; Cincinnati's 22-point loss busted the +5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Still lucky at plus 7.5, as long as it's above the 7. Rams, keep hitting it. I got tons on 2.5, a ton on minus 3. If it gets a minus 3.5, I'm not going to be that invested into it. It's all about the number here. So if it stays on the 3, I really think that'll be one of my bigger bets come Sunday”
LAR 21, SEA 19 — Rams beat Seahawks 21-19; Los Angeles' 2-point margin fell short of the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“the San Francisco 49ers are at Arizona. Arizona is a three-point dog. We liked Arizona on Tuesday. It was at two and a half. We wanted it to get to three. It did get to three. I don't know about you. I bet it at three. Marvin Harrison Jr. is out with an appendectomy. I don't think that matters to me. To me, this is about Jacoby Brissett and Trey McBride, and we're just talking about tight ends and a Niners defense that cannot rush the passer right now and has at the center of its defense a new signal caller replacing Fred Warner who played well but it still different when you playing against an all tight end caliber tight end like Trey McBride Yeah, I'm with you on the Cardinals. It's another game, though, just like a Jags where I'm just betting this number. I don't really feel that great about it. So you might have more opinions on this one than me. I simply just took this number.”
SF 41, ARI 22 — 49ers beat Cardinals 41-22; Arizona's 19-point loss busted the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“But I do think there's much more systemic issues with the Falcons than with the Panthers. To be catching three and a half, I feel like we both agree on that. Yeah. For a Falcons team that has so many issues. Speaking of social media, there was a clip the other day, I think I saw it yesterday, on the X platform where Michael Penix was asked about, you know who he leans on for support when things aren going well and who gives him advice He talked about his fiance and his high school coach The people he didn mention in his ears sort of that are helping coach him up, Raheem Morris and Zach Robinson, his offensive coordinator and his head coach. And I do think we're seeing some of this on the field where his performance has not been where it should be, but how much of that is on the coaching and how much of that is on the play calling so i do think that there's probably for lack of a better term better vibes in carolina i just don't know i guess i guess at the hook yeah we're taking carolina that's really what it is yeah and we didn't even talk about which was a mistake on my part atlanta is coming off an overtime game in an international this has never happened in the history of football usually it's happened five times all those teams had bye weeks it's the first time ever a team has played an overtime game internationally and come home to play the game. So there's that part of it. And, you know, the Penix part, you know, like we said, it's just inconsistent. And that's a lot of points for him to be catching in a divisional matchup where the Panthers have surprisingly owned the Falcons these last few times they've played. So, yeah, I just want to make sure I brought this one up. I just don't want people to be shocked if we do end up taking this one on Sunday. It's a game I'm bent into. I like the Panthers here, and it definitely was a miss on my part. I should have trusted my model, which had a two and a half. I just – I couldn't get what the books are doing. You're hanging this number. But I do think this comes down to three as more professionals come in and bet the Spanthers side.”
CAR 30, ATL 27 — Panthers beat Falcons 30-27 in overtime; Carolina's outright win covered the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Simon, I want to talk about the Green Bay Packers as seven point favorites at the New York Giants. Because on Tuesday, we talked about the Packers and you had a slight lean to the Packers. I was wondering why, like, we would even try to make a decision. We didn't know who was going to be quarterback. Now we know. The famous Jameis Winston is starting for the Giants on Sunday. Russell Wilson has been demoted to third string, and Russell Wilson is now doing videos on Cameo. He's made $300 million in his career doing videos on Cameo. Yesterday at his press conference as the number one quarterback, his QB1, Jameis Winston gave a virtuoso performance, including a Broadway musical interlude. Matt Mitchell roll it I want fans to know that I going to do my best You know obviously I going to have fun but I going to execute have a surgical execution and just play ball man Like this is something I've been doing since I've been four years old. I just get to do it in the greatest city in the world. I'm going to be saying it with my son. It's the greatest city in the world. Yeah, that's a Hamilton reference, if y'all don't know. A 10-year reunion. Yeah. I mean, come on. him acknowledging Hamilton's 10 year, 10 year anniversary. He's a legend. He's a legend. It's like Jameis is everything you love about betting. You and I talk about this all the time. You love the rollercoaster of betting. I love knowing that I've got the win in the first quarter and then relaxing the rest of the day. I want to be right. I don't want the emotion. You want the emotion. james is your type of qb dude it's like all the betting how do you not put in a small taste on james he is the full experience on sunday the oh no throws the oh yes throws the holy shit throws simon james a little taste come on yeah the biggest sin in life is that james is not like a top five quarterback in this league it just for he has so much personality we just don't get from quarterbacks right most quarterbacks are just robots which they should be right they're protecting their brand they don't want to say anything that gets put on the you know the board and used against them blah blah blah but Jameis is just so free and just not negative and just good vibes like he never says the wrong things even when he's talking crazy it's it's great like You never know where you're going to go with it. I just thought this was a Green Bay spot. We've talked this year. This Green Bay team, they're on a historical run. I think the first team in 20 years to be 0-5 as a seven-point favorite against the spread. They've yet to cover the season as a seven-point favorite. The public's on. The Giants, the pros are joining them. This is going to be a huge, huge bet. all the teachers, all the money line parlays of this Packers team. Because everyone's like me. I can't see the Packers losing three games in a row. Maybe I'll just avoid it now because, like you said, Jameis can either lose this game by 30 or win this game outright. If he has one of his days, pass on the ball. Such a wild card. I don't know if he has a weapons, Chad. In other places where he's done stuff, he's actually... He had guys on the outside that can make plays. He does not have that in this scenario. And he's going against a really good defensive front. So I'm still on the Packers, but I get it.”
GB 27, NYG 20 — Packers beat Giants 27-20; Green Bay's exact 7-point margin matched the -7 spread, a push (ESPN box score).
“the San Francisco 49ers are at Arizona. Arizona is a three-point dog. We liked Arizona on Tuesday. It was at two and a half. We wanted it to get to three. It did get to three. I don't know about you. I bet it at three. Marvin Harrison Jr. is out with an appendectomy. I don't think that matters to me. To me, this is about Jacoby Brissett and Trey McBride, and we're just talking about tight ends and a Niners defense that cannot rush the passer right now and has at the center of its defense a new signal caller replacing Fred Warner who played well but it still different when you playing against an all tight end caliber tight end like Trey McBride Yeah, I'm with you on the Cardinals. It's another game, though, just like a Jags where I'm just betting this number. I don't really feel that great about it. So you might have more opinions on this one than me. I simply just took this number. Obviously, Harris News sucks. As much as you want to downplay it, he is their number one. He's a big, big target who, with Bursette, seemed like he's been playing pretty well. So not ideal. But like you said, we're just playing the number here in the matchup. And I just can't have this 49ers team catching more than three points against anybody, let alone a divisional foe that can move the ball offensively. Like you said, train wreck start to that game against Seattle. They fought, played well throughout the game, and moved the ball pretty well. So it's a good number, but, man, is this a gross game. Do you want to hear my appendectomy story? Not really. The story is about how I was trying to close the NFL preview at ESPN the magazine, and I wasn't feeling well. Oh, no. And for two days, I stayed in the office, barely leaving, because my boss at the time, it was the first NFL preview we were ever closing. and my boss was like, she was like, you don't look good but we really need you. You're running this issue. We need you to be here to close it. I am like under my desk. I had to be removed and taken by ambulance to the hospital for an emergency appendectomy which I stayed in the hospital for 10 days after. Did you not know this? Yeah, because I was closing the NFL preview for ESPN the Magazine in 1998 But here's the kicker. Here's the kicker. After the surgery, we had like our reviews and my boss at the time, who I ended up quitting ESPN the magazine because I just could not stand her. She was one of the worst people I've ever worked with. Still to this day, horrible boss, stole every idea, would not give me any help with assignments, did not try to grow me in any particular way. in my review that year she gave me the equivalent of a check minus in Disney grading rules for attendance essentially at work And I like what do you mean She goes, well, you know, you were gone for two weeks in June. I'm like, that was my honeymoon? I just started four weeks earlier and everyone knew I was getting married. She's like, and then there was that time like in September where you were gone for like two and a half weeks. I'm like when an ambulance came and took me out because I had an emergency appendectomy the point of the story Simon I played through it did you I don't know, it seems like the appendix won I closed the issue it put you down for 10 days I closed the issue, the point was I closed the issue I had a buddy with basically the same thing, but unlike you he was it was college he was boozing drinking he goes i think something's wrong is the same thing where it's like right down like above the crotch like below the stomach kind of yeah yeah yeah yeah so basically same thing as you were you probably had like a sharp pain in that area yeah and he can't he basically couldn't stand up right apart he says he can't stand up he's in so much pain and i go dude you should go to a hospital if you're in that much pain he goes but i feel fine sitting here it's just when i stand up i can't stand up and i basically a buddy put him on his shoulder and carried him down the street to a local doctor that took him to the hospital. It doesn't sound like he was so committed to his job. He stayed at the office for two days in agony to close the NFL preview issue. We haven't even really talked about the time that I wrote a cover story for ESPN the magazine after I had broken my back in a cab accident. Next time. We'll get to that one next time. Baltimore at Cleveland. This one was Chad's choice when it was eight and a half. The number at Hard Rock is now down to seven and a half. You mentioned there's some lingering news or news about a knee issue with Lamar Jackson, but we were all over this before. I'm glad to hear that the Wise Guys are into it too. Give me some feedback on what they were telling you. I have some thoughts on a very specific point that you and I discussed about this game the other day, but tell me what the Wise Guys were telling you and how you're feeling about this 48 hours later. Well, like I said, it feels like, not that we lucked into it, but it's just a spot we both loved. I feel like most of them knew something was up with Lamar, that he was a little banged up from that game and they were taking a position on it because their view of it if you already getting a bang up with Lamar and he he does play you handicapping him because he not gonna have the same rushing ability against one of the best defensive lines in all football so um the early line move has a shock me i'm shocked though it has stuck at seven and a half i thought this would be just like that houston tennessee line where the books would hedge a little bit right move it down to seven maybe six and a half just in case Lamar is out in this game so they must must be pretty positive confident that Lamar does play which I don't know how you can trust the Ravens right now like I I just anything Harbaugh says to me is just I don't believe any of it now like I'll believe it come Friday practice if he's with the first team and you know that's reported by reporters not the team itself so yeah it's um I'm so glad we got the early line on Cleveland but it's it's a tough game to try to handicap now because we really don't know if it's obviously if it's not Lamar I mean we're elated I would tell people to bet it now if you really think that but I do think Lamar plays I just he's such a competitor he's missed so much time I just unless he's really really banged up and he can't move I can't see him missing this one but for us I wanted to play like a banged up Lamar I mean it's it's a great great matchup for Myles Garrett and the boys and um just dive into this game more we talked a little bit about it it's I'm not putting so much faith in Dylan Gabriel I still think he's got issues I do think this Cleveland team better run the ball against this Ravens team I don't think has fixed all of their issues so yep still love the number still love the matchup um it's just what will this number end up being hopefully people grab the eight and a half when you gave it out how do you feel about betting it at seven and a half I still bet it just because it's just the unknown a little more I'm just I don't want people to go too crazy because he does come back this will definitely get back to eight I think eight and a half unless the professionals really keep this down um i can't say it happens just gonna be so much public money on this ravens team they're just one of the most beloved teams of football right now especially by the betting public they've just exactly what everyone predicted to happen with them has happened lamar even before he came back even the backup they've won it covered it feels like three games in a row here and they've totally flipped that division with a losing record they're the big odds on favor to win that division so um it's just i don't want people to invest too much here into this number just in case he does come back. But how can you not throw a little on if you did miss 8.5? Throw a little here on the 7.5 on this Browns team just in case. It is no Lamar. And this does move by another three or four points. We talked the other day about how much better the Browns are at home than on the road. So I did do a little… Research on it. The Browns at home since the beginning of last season when we really started to notice this trend give up 20 points per game at home, 29 points per game on the road, so 30% less at home. They also give up 30% fewer rushing yards at home than on the road, 95 versus 139. They also give up like 10% fewer passing yards, but being at home does make a difference. you know we talk about all the time it could be the grass it's obviously there's nuances of playing at home the weather certainly makes a difference i also think like the noise those fans are still rabid and i think the dog pound matters i just do like that it makes a difference for that team and i think the fans know it um so i like the i like the browns they were chad's choice presented by hard rock bet speaking of let's do a quick message from our friends at Hard Rock Bet. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. It's that time of year when every day feels like a big game day. You've got pro football, college football, NBA, college hoops, hockey. It's all happening. And on Hard Rock Bet, there's always something to bet on. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet yet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. 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Customers will pay $25 a month as long as they remain active on the Boost Unlimited plan. Hi, it's Colin Coward from the Colin Coward Podcast. Every goal starts with an assist. As official partners of U.S. soccer, this team is ready to deliver. Sensodyne, dentist recommended defense of your sensitive teeth. Centrum, fueling your day with science-backed nutrients. Advil, of course, powerful inflammation-fighting pain relief. Voltaren Arthritis Gel, helps penetrate deep keeps the joints moving and Tums ready to counterattack with fast heartburn relief Learn how Halion can assist your game day goals at halionassist slash con This is Jeff T from the Club 520 podcast. Oh my goodness. Now this is a performance you do not want to miss. The Dell XPS powered by Intel Core Ultra. It's got the sauce. We're talking speed, style, stamina. Bam. And a long lasting battery life. Unheard of in this league. 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That's coverage that you can count on for every single round. So when the moment happens, you're not catching up. You're already there. Now that, that's a total power move. In the UFC, power isn't given. It's taken. So make your total power move today. Visit TotalWildless.com or stop by your neighborhood Total Wireless store. 5G access requires a 5G-capable device in a 5G service area. Monthly rates on the Total Base 5G Unlimited plan. For new subscribers, applies only to the monthly rate for your plan. Additional terms apply. See website for details. All right. Kansas City at Denver. Denver is now three and a half at Hard Rock. There's still a bunch of fours out there as well. This was almost, almost your Simon Says. we heard about it on sharp calls. J.K. Dobbins, probably not playing because of a foot injury. He may end up going on injury reserve. They've been very mum about it. Are you still there? Still on it. I'm definitely leaking a little confidence here because I thought this would be all pros on this Broncos team, but I just don't think guys trust Bo Nix. I don't think so either. Yeah, I mean, that's fair. He regressed in a lot of ways but I glad I saw a good Sean Payton stat that gives me a little confidence at least This is a good Sean Payton game where basically if his teams only convert one red zone trip in two consecutive games in his career they are 14 straight up in that third game 5-1 against the spread in his career. So take what you want from that. It really looks like it's the type of thing where he just gets his offenses to bounce back situationally. It's been a rough go. Like, I'll be the first to admit that Denver's game was atrocious. They should have won that game by 20 points or more. And just Bo Nix gave them nothing. And they didn't trust him. Like, they just were not letting them throw at certain points because they just did not trust him putting the ball downfield. So, you know, this is just an interesting spot. So just the fact that in the last decade, you know, Sean Payton's 7-0 in this spot with the Broncos. He's 2-0 straight up and against the spread in this exact spot where he's basically had a really struggling offense and they've bounced back in these games. So I don't know about you. It's just the Mahomes factor because Mahomes just, I looked at it, historically dominates the Broncos in these games. He's been just great divisionally on the road. But I just, I can't get to the fact how bad the Broncos have been his whole career. He's been on the Chiefs. So it's like, I know Bo Nix is no different than those quarterbacks. Maybe I'm overrating him still too much, but it just feels like a lot of points for this Chiefs team going against a really good defense where I have some questions still about this Chiefs defense. There's still some ways I think they have holes that teams have exploited. And the biggest one would be passing downfield against them. So I know. That's why I didn't make it to him because I didn't want to make people invest once again in this Broncos team. I have some other gross dogs I like better than this one, but I'm on it. I've taken a pretty large position on it at this point. But maybe I'll temper it as we head into the weekend. I won't be put too much in because just the thought of Bo Nix is making me sick. Yeah. I feel like every time Bo Nix starts, he's so amped up. he could throw the ball through a wall. And they missed so many opportunities in those first 15 scripted where Sean Payton and a lot of coaches are at their best. And it's usually calming for most quarterbacks. And Bo Nix looked like he's ready to jump out of the stadium. And I also worry this defense without Pat Sertain against the Chiefs, that's a different kind of test that they haven't really had since Sertain was out. And so it's a much more difficult proposition for them. We don't love betting Mahomes. as a favorite of more than three. I get it. I like Peyton in this spot. I get it. I agree with you. We should tell you, though, it is Chiefs off a bye, which we have in the past. We just automatically bet it. Right. It's true. I know. I'm not going to lie to you. I'm not bought in on Denver at all here. I have not bet. I know. Even the other day when, you know, it's at four and you're hammering it. Can I give you some defensive stats that might help a little? Okay, let's hear. Let's see. It's like I'm trying to find a reason there because I just – it's just this number. I just can't get over it. But defensively – Just give me a reason. Defensively, they have 40-plus sacks, and this season they're holding opponents on third down to less than 3% conversion rate. They're the only defense to do that since 1990 other than the $2,000. You remember that team, right? That deal. It's like – Covered that Super Bowl. Nice. Yeah, it was a sick one. I just – I look at this and I'm just – maybe I'm betting the defense here. like that Houston game. And I got to stop thinking about Bo Nix, but we're going to need him to make plays. That's the hardest part here. It's like, you're going to need him to show up. It's just brutal, brutal, brutal. So yeah, I don't know if I'm going to force him to be one of our fives this week, if I'm really going to be like, Chad, you got to make, got to take this one. If it was four and a half, I probably could have got you there. But like you said, the fours have come back down. The three and a half feels like it's going to be out. So I do like the Broncos, but there's other dogs I like better this week. Detroit at Philadelphia. you turned me around on this the other day. I bet the Eagles at two and a half. That is where the number is right now. It's not the best of the number, but it's still below three. I still liked it. I reran my model because you know I got a model. I worked on it during the off season with my intern from Harvard's stats department. Not even kidding. And I think if you can give me a good team that came off of a tight win against a good team that just had a big win, I'm still going to get value on the good team off of the tight win. So I started to come around on the Eagles. You're saying from the wise guys that it seemed like it was split, but you kind of had me buy into the Eagles the other day when I think I was starting to lean towards the Lions. Yeah, the hesitation I feel like is a lot of the wise guys are taking positions on the Lions because of all those crazy numbers and trends about golf in primetime at night and how good him and Campbell have been They like covering machines I think they like something like 25 minutes against the spread It just something insane in these night games And then you factor in a stat we give out early in the year, right? When they blow teams out, they cover at an insane rate. They're like a 70% cover rate after they win by seven points or more the following game. So we know all this. We know what we're walking into. This is a really good team, the Lions. Like we said, it's about the number. So still like it. I mean, we talked on Tuesday. There was a couple of one-and-a-halves out there. I feel like as soon as the show was posted, they were gone, right? That got immediately up to two-and-a-half of basically every book. Hard Rock was the last one, though. Hard Rock held at the two for a while, and they did eventually move to a three, and then immediately went down. So there is a ton of resistance at the three, I feel like, for professionals here. With the Lions, which I do get in, matchup-wise, like I said, I don't know if the books are accounting for how good this defensive line now is for this Eagles team with the upgrade to the position. Because for about four weeks there, we had just two or three guys. We had no rotation. So you saw last week having guys sub in and out. It's just fresh legs. It's such a huge deal with these defensive fronts, how hard these guys run and work. And the biggest thing, I guess, would be, well, Eagles are on a short week, right? They traveled, you know, from Green Bay to this game home, I guess. But to me, it's the same with the Lions. They were on the road against Washington. And historically, actually, golf isn't great on back-to-back road games that are both outdoors, which, again, I know it's stupid stats, but all the stats for him are really dominant indoors. Like, it's insane. So we've got to grasp the straws we can, people. He is a different and not as good outdoors. And matchup-wise, I just keep going back to this Eagles offense. As much as they've struggled, the Detroit team has so many injuries. Like this is the exact type of defense you'd want to face for an Eagles team that needs to get right. So I expect after a week filled with drama, I don't know if you saw all the A.J. Brown stuff once again, but – Oh, yeah. Basically it was for the first time honest, which felt good to hear what actually is going on rather than like these news reporters dictating how he's feeling through his Instagram, which is just – shows a level of sports media reporting right now if that's what we're going off of. Don't impugn the media. This isn about how bad the media is although if you watch social media boy they ask a lot of stupid questions in open locker rooms and press conferences Yeah there you go Chad So I just he basically said him and Jalen have no issues Jalen's playing well. He's doing what's being asked of him. He's got no problems with the OC. He's doing what's being asked of him. So that leaves one person he's got issues with, and that's a big deal. It's Sirianni. So we'll see what happens. Basically, it came out that him – Sirianni had a call in that fourth down play, And Hurts and AJ went rogue and just said, it's going to you no matter what. Go deep. So there's a ton of drama right now. You mean a couple weeks ago against the Bucs, was it? Is that what you're talking about? No, last week. Last week? I don't remember the play. It was fourth down for our lives. The Eagles should have either punted or kicked a field goal against Green Bay, and they went for it. You don't remember this? It was like fourth and 11 or something crazy. Maybe I went to bed at this point. Well, he took a deep shot to AJ, and it was incomplete, and they left basically 30 seconds left for a green bait and maybe tie with a field goal to end the game. So it was just people were like, what the hell? Why would Sierra and he called that play? And he basically was just like, I didn't call that. They checked out. So there is a ton of drama, and I get why people are freaking out about this Eagles team. But just look at the matchup on the field. I just love this matchup for this Eagles team. And the public's flying into it a little bit. Like you said, the Lions, they're getting all the money, all the tickets right now. They are heavily a public dog. and the line is moving against them. Like I said, it's hit three in a couple of books. So if it touches three come Sunday, I will feel much better about our Eagles position. That means some real pro money is coming again on the two and a half, which most people listening, that's what they're taking on. Because right now all the pro money came in on the one and a half. So love the Eagles here, but obviously like Chad said, we wish we gave out the best of the number. You know what one team I don't worry about when there's a lot of drama? Who? The Eagles. Philly justice. welcome to philly bitch there's always drama like there has been drama i think nick sirianni attracts the drama i think people wanna like him not like him i don't think he cares i think he says whatever is on his mind i think he likes to be partly trolling and enjoys it and i think the eagles have the kind of personality that the bears had in the 80s and the cowboys had in the 90s like they're just these teams where there's big personalities a huge amount of talent and there always going to be some kind of turmoil in that locker room and i don think it matters like i i just don like that it all noise to me and it fun what that sirianni he is john madden so they put up the stat the only other quarterback that more wins through the first five seasons in nfl history percentage wise john madden and i thought about that comparison it feels so right that man joined a team of crazy drama Raiders team just ahead cases and no one took him serious for about five years even though he was leading the league in win percentage so I I'm one of those people I hated Sirianni I just hate the way he handled the media that way he talks to the fans all that but all he does is win and you got to respect it and like you said he he seems like he thrives when there's tons of in-house drama so you're right maybe I'm overreacting too much I just there's so much affiliate right now I can't can't get over how bad it is yeah I mean you're you're in the middle of the white noise you can't get away from it whereas like I'm just seeing it as funny and it's the same story every single week and every single year with this team and this team honestly I know they're not being nearly as effective but there's something about their lack of effectiveness that to me I'm only watching Jalen Hurts and Jalen Hurts when he's on the field doesn't seem bothered by the lack of effectiveness he has in the past this year it seems like the lack of effectiveness is almost by choice where he's just making the right calls and doing the right things and doing what needs to be won and not trying to do things to make sort of dramatic plays for lack of a better term and so i'm only watching him and he's just he's unbothered it's fair but like last year i had a sneaky i mean i guess it was thinking because i gave him out heading the year but i was just all in on that eagles team to win super bowl where this year i just have so many questions where last year i did not like i had one big question it was about that defense and after the bye week they got it right the eagles after their bye week the defense looked amazing but the offense left left a lot to the imagination so yeah this is uh like i said this is a perfect spot for this eagles offense to get right against a banged up lines defense let's talk about that crazy las vegas raiders plus three and a half simon says against the dallas cowboys on monday night uh you gotta want this you gotta you really gotta want it explain yourself simon hunter on the las vegas raiders i still love it um the the pushback i got The pros I have talked about this one is that Cowboys did get people back to their defense that are coming off injured reserve. And, you know, could that be a big upgrade for them? Sure. But my argument to them is it's like trying to fix a hole in a sinking ship with a truly a bandaid like there. They have so many issues. Their top corner bland has no legs anymore. He has no speed, like something that made him so special from just having a couple injuries. He's lost it. So I just love this match with this Raiders offense wise. I just think this is the perfect team to match up for them. And defensively, you know, you've seen the Cowboys have struggled this year. It's when they're facing against a good pass rush. So to me, Max Crosby, you know, I don't want to give too much credence to podcast people, but because, you know, every week I'm sure he might go on his podcast and stay himself. But I saw this week he's basically playing all these clips from people in the media, trashing him, saying how bad he's been and how that loss was on him like he did nothing in that Denver game, and they can't stop the run, everything like that. And I just love that type of thing for him where he's just going to be a mental case in this game. So it's shocking to me that there's no pros on this Raiders team yet. But like I said, maybe Sunday morning, I'll have more guys join me. But it's just because it's the Monday game, I feel like it's either been, from the pro side at least, they're taking the Cowboys or nothing at all at this point. All right. We got a lot to discuss. Well, you got a couple games you missed that I like. oh tell me what i miss what were we at with this panthers team i told you i got a lot of calls about it you know what's funny um are we missing it here i wonder if we are too i was actually just scrolling through because i was looking ahead to our underdog parlay and the panthers jumped out as a team that we would want to put in as the underdog parlay and obviously i've got trepidation because of what's happened with Bryce Young the past couple weeks. He just hasn't looked good. But I do think there's much more systemic issues with the Falcons than with the Panthers. To be catching three and a half, I feel like we both agree on that. Yeah. For a Falcons team that has so many issues. Speaking of social media, there was a clip the other day, I think I saw it yesterday, on the X platform where Michael Penix was asked about, you know who he leans on for support when things aren going well and who gives him advice He talked about his fiance and his high school coach The people he didn mention in his ears sort of that are helping coach him up, Raheem Morris and Zach Robinson, his offensive coordinator and his head coach. And I do think we're seeing some of this on the field where his performance has not been where it should be, but how much of that is on the coaching and how much of that is on the play calling so i do think that there's probably for lack of a better term better vibes in carolina i just don't know i guess i guess at the hook yeah we're taking carolina that's really what it is yeah and we didn't even talk about which was a mistake on my part atlanta is coming off an overtime game in an international this has never happened in the history of football usually it's happened five times all those teams had bye weeks it's the first time ever a team has played an overtime game internationally and come home to play the game. So there's that part of it. And, you know, the Penix part, you know, like we said, it's just inconsistent. And that's a lot of points for him to be catching in a divisional matchup where the Panthers have surprisingly owned the Falcons these last few times they've played. So, yeah, I just want to make sure I brought this one up. I just don't want people to be shocked if we do end up taking this one on Sunday. It's a game I'm bent into. I like the Panthers here, and it definitely was a miss on my part. I should have trusted my model, which had a two and a half. I just – I couldn't get what the books are doing. You're hanging this number. But I do think this comes down to three as more professionals come in and bet the Spanthers side. All right. I'm into that. I'm into that because to be honest, I think we were struggling to find five that we loved, not even like agreed on, just like five games that we were really in love with. So I could see that. And then before we go, I'm just going to throw out two games. Just line moving while we're doing the show live. Tampa has moved to plus six at a couple books. Jesus. So, yep, that's happening as we speak. And the Bears are shifting to two and a half. So we've talked about it a little bit. We both – I feel like we're trying not to, but we both are liking on the Bears at plus three. That's just – And this was at three and a half. This was at three and a half, by the way, last night. So to me it's about the number – We don't know because we're doing the show right now, but it's two and a half everywhere now. I do not like the Bears at two and a half. No, no, no, no. I like Vikings. I bringing it up for people If they want to grab the Bears I grab the three if you can before it moves That game was at three and a half All right Well the Vikings at two and a half might be an interesting play on Sunday Okay. I keep thinking about the Bears keep coming back against really bad teams. Well, Caleb against the NFC North, right? Can I invest in J.J. McCarthy? You know, that's just tricky. It's a really tricky one. Caleb was the one in his career, right, against NFC North? and it was like carolina all right so let's let's take a pause here for a sec because i want to recap cincinnati plus five and a half is a game we're both going to be on houston minus six and a half the bucks are now a plus six that's scary i'm glad we really haven't bet that we know we like the rams plus three we know we like minus three i mean minus three we know we like cleveland uh plus seven and a half plus eight plus eight and a half um we think we like philly minus two and a half. I don't love the Raiders, but I do like the Panthers a lot. I get it. The Raiders are tough, man. It's tough. Raiders are tough. You got to bet it. You got to keep fading this Dallas team as a big favorites. It's been profitable this year, fading them. So we got some decisions to make on Sunday. Give me your biggest bets right now. It sounds like Panthers might actually be in there. Pull up those pants and be a man. They're getting there. Honestly, I really took a heavy position on Cleveland like we talked about. I really thought, not that that number was going to come steaming down because of what we were talking about, but got very lucky that I bet it before all the Lamar news. Still lucky at plus 7.5, as long as it's above the 7. Rams, keep hitting it. I got tons on 2.5, a ton on minus 3. If it gets a minus 3.5, I'm not going to be that invested into it. It's all about the number here. So if it stays on the 3, I really think that'll be one of my bigger bets come Sunday I'm probably going to get there probably going to get there on this Eagles team I just right now I haven't taken too big of a position but it's just that I thought the one and a half would pop again so I'm going to try to be patient on that one but it seems like it keeps getting to the three it's not going the way I want it to so I might just have to suck it up and just take the two and a half on this Eagles team Alright let's do a three team parlay for underdogs i would do carolina mm gotta do cincy cincinnati yep that was on my list Plus 200 Should we do Cardinals Well, we didn't talk about the Cardinals. No, we did briefly. I know. I'm not crazy about it, but it's either them or the Jags. These are good home dogs. Let's do the Cardinals. All right. So three-team parlay, Carolina, Arizona, and Cincinnati.”
Parlay busts: Panthers beat Falcons 30-27 in OT (covers +3.5, won); Cardinals lost 41-22 to the 49ers (busts +3, lost); Bengals lost 34-12 to the Steelers (busts +5.5, lost). Two of three legs failed, so the parlay loses (ESPN box scores).
“I bet Cincinnati at plus five and a half.”
PIT 34-CIN 12 — Steelers beat Bengals 34-12 (Bengals margin -22), busting +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“Simon says, give me Las Vegas Raiders plus three and a half.”
DAL 33-LV 16 — Cowboys beat Raiders 33-16 (Raiders margin -17), busting +3.5 (ESPN game recap).
“Green Bay at the New York Giants, plus seven and a half. Since the news of Brian Dayball being fired, since the Green Bay Packers put up seven points at home and had a myriad of miscues against the Philadelphia Eagles, this number has come down from eight and a half to seven and a half and i don't know about you i don't have a ton of feelings about brian dayball i can't tell if like he was just an arrogant dude or a football dude or a guy who is getting screwed i think it's mostly brian dayball getting screwed forget about his ability to coach and scheme and get along with you know people on the coaching staff and the players don't seem to like him very much he seems to be a little bit of a manage the star and not manage anybody else kind of coach but um boy the videos that are coming out about joe shine and his reactions to jackson's dart and how he didn't want to take him and how he got rid of saquon when brian dayball wanted to keep him and how he signed daniel jones to 140 million deal like he seems a little weaselly in this whole situation i mean you come across all these people in life where you're just like how does this guy have and maintain these jobs and he's one of those people it's like he's managing up in the corporate world it's called managing up okay well he's doing it definitely we have a couple of people like that in my world as well but uh they always get theirs i don't hopefully it goes the same in the business world but i look at this move is i guess a positive for the Giants. I mean, this guy is blown. Was it four double-digit fourth-quarter leads this season with the Giants? Yeah. Had to do – if you're the owner, you have to show your fan base you have a pulse and make that move. So, yeah, just burn it all down. Get rid of him. Get rid of the GM. Start over. Like we joke with Dart, tons and tons of talents, no brains. Guy is a full-on idiot when it comes to protecting himself. I mean, someone joked, and I think it's true. I think he has three concussions this year. Like, well, I think he's been checked for three concussions. He's been checked for four multiple concussions. Yeah, but it's still like, I mean, he just needs to understand he's got so much talent. The league is set up to protect yourself if you're a quarterback, especially as a runner. it's just crazy the stuff he put himself into so i am all over green bay here especially if this might be russell wilson oh my god and we've seen it yeah russell wilson can have a fluke game where”
GB 27-NYG 20 — Packers beat Giants 27-20 (margin +7), falling short of covering -7.5 (ESPN box score).
“So plus three, I'll take on this Jags team. But my God, do I hate it?”
JAX 35-LAC 6 — Jaguars beat Chargers 35-6 (margin +29), covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“I'm leaving it up to you with Miami plus nine and a half.”
MIA 30-BUF 13 — Dolphins beat Bills 30-13 outright, covering +9.5 (ESPN box score).
“I know. We're dug in here on the Niners. I'm trying to ward us off. Last week, I didn't ward us off enough, and this week, I'm trying to do it. But what does that mean? Ward us off? Is that like, all right, here's the warning. We're on the 49ers, no problem. We're telling people to take them five and a half and get to six. But is it really smart of us to put them in a three and a half in this contest? No, it's stupid. Right. So that's what I'm saying. I'm trying to protect us from that. And even if it hits, again, good. We've all won money. We've all taken the 49ers here.”
LAR 42-SF 26 — Rams beat 49ers 42-26 (49ers margin -16), busting +6 (ESPN box score).
“So just for this game, Chad, I like it. It's really about the number, though. This, to me, is going to come down. If you can still get the plus two, plus two and a half when you hear this, I will take position on the Jets. Once it gets below the two, I don't know how much I'm going to be investing here until I know exactly who the quarterback is going to be. And if that is, in fact, Justin Fields, we can re-enter this one on Sunday morning and talk about putting in the contest. But as you said here right now, I'm betting into the two and a half without even knowing who the quarterback is. Yeah, I am as well.”
NYJ 27-CLE 20 — Jets beat Browns 27-20 outright, covering +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to be patient here. Get a better number. Like I said, this is moving up people. You can get two and a half right now. Key number. I'm going to grab that on Houston.”
HOU 36-JAX 29 — Texans beat Jaguars 36-29 outright, covering +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“Maybe I can talk us out of it. But as we sit here right now, I've bet heavily into the books. I love the books. I think it's a great number. And I think this Patriots team is just like last week, a little overvalued. And I think they're already valued here. There's probably should be three and a half. It's two and a half. Come on. We can't avoid this one. It's too good. Tampa Bay box. They're going to be in the final five.”
NE 28-TB 23 — Patriots won 28-23; Buccaneers lost outright, busting -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“So me and Chad loves the plus six and a half people. I think this will keep moving as well. Like I said, the book, the publics, they keep undervaluing Bursette. So I can easily set in this, get up to seven. Just like last week we talked, I like the Cardinals there, plus two and a half.”
SEA 44-ARI 22 — Seahawks beat Cardinals 44-22 (Cardinals margin -22), busting +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“And a four, I won't take it, but a four and a half, I'm taking 49ers there.”
LAR 42-SF 26 — Rams beat 49ers 42-26 (49ers margin -16), busting +4.5 (ESPN box score).
“Give me Miami plus nine and a half home dog.”
MIA 30-BUF 13 — Dolphins beat Bills 30-13 outright, covering +9.5 (ESPN box score).
“Broncos minus eight and a half. Simon says Broncos minus eight and a half presented by Hard Rock Bet.”
DEN 10-LV 7 — Broncos beat Raiders 10-7 (margin +3), well short of covering -8.5 (ESPN box score).
“Last one we agree on. Kansas City at Buffalo. Kansas City's minus two right now. This was Simon Sinek. when it was Kansas City, minus one and a half. This one also has bounced around. Like it got as high as two and a half, then got that down. There's some places where you can still get a one and a half. I think there's some professional community elements here that really like Buffalo and think that Kansas City has been riding high and might be a little overvalued because of their wins the past few weeks. I think you and I just don't trust Buffalo's defense as much as we playing Buffalo's defense. And we do very much trust Patrick Mahomes. Yeah. And I think a lot of the pros, their position, they've come in on the plus two and a half with this team. So you have seen it fluctuated, but it does look like that's where it's starting to settle a little bit. Right. Which I am shocked by. I thought the pros would keep this at minus one and a half just because I didn't realize there'd be so much resistance here. I really thought the Bills would be a public play and the pros would be on this Chiefs team. For what I talked about, like it's as much as people say Josh Allen's numbers are the same as they were the year before. Talk to any real Bills fans. He just doesn't look the same. He looks a little off. And the schedule has been much softer this year than it was last year. And that's including, you know, a bad loss to the Patriots, which, you know, maybe the Patriots are better than I'm getting credit for. And then a really bad loss to Atlanta. So I don't know. This would be the type of game that Josh Allen does show up and put up big numbers, and that's what they're going to need here because I just look at this matchup for this Chiefs team. I know the Bills got guys back, but I just don't see anyone in their secondary that's going to have real problems to this Chiefs passing attack. So, yeah, Chad, I think we have one and a half in the contest. Like you said, it's minus two at Hard Rock. Shop around. See if you can still find the one and a half.”
KC 21, BUF 28 — Bills beat Chiefs 28-21; Kansas City's -1.5 spread busts (lost outright).
“Interesting that they would open this on minus three. Like they know they're going to get a ton of public money, this Lions team. So like you said, I'm going to grab it just now. Cause I do think it will move up. I mean, it's minus one 20 at most books. So, you know, it's not the greatest number to be bent into, but I still think it's a key number. So I'll, I'll grab it now.”
DET 44, WSH 22 — Lions beat Commanders 44-22; Detroit's -3 spread covers easily (won by 22).
“Hard Rock in Jersey are now minus three, minus 120. So I know. Again, I'm trying to not do what I just did last week and take all these chalk road favorites. favorites but my god that's that feels like an insane line to open with like this ravens team we've seen it when they get going they dominate and i i don't want to overreact to a vikings team that did stop the run last week against detroit where we've seen them be one of the worst run defense in all football so maybe i'm missing it and i'll learn more this week about what the vikings did i'll watch the tape about the adjustments they made but this feels like an a great play for Lamar, who historically is just absolutely dominated NFC team. So I'm with you. If you can get a minus three right now, hard rock, I'm going to grab that early line.”
BAL 27, MIN 19 — Ravens beat Vikings 27-19; Baltimore's -3 spread covers (won by 8).
“Atlanta's plus six and a half against the Colts team. It's indoors. And it's indoors. Yeah. Like, it feels like this is the exact spot we're supposed to back this Atlanta team. So I'm going to grab that early here. Even if I want to change my position later on, the more I look into this one. But I can't see my model having the Colts as a seven-point favorite. Like again we talked that they are good but their defense is suspect They have major questions about the secondary And Daniel Jones bounce back spot Yeah of course he should bounce back here But I don know Feels like a very – still an inflated line. And the fact that you can get six and a half, such a key number, I'll grab that early here.”
ATL 25, IND 31 — Colts beat Falcons 31-25 in OT in Berlin; Atlanta's +6.5 spread covers (lost by only 6).
“we got to find five that we both love chargers minus eight and a half at tennessee uh interesting game we talked about loving the chargers on tuesday that's when it was at nine and a half Now it's moved even more. You mentioned off the top, sharp calls, the wise guys loving Tennessee. I don't know what anyone's seeing with Tennessee. Jeffrey Simmons did not practice on Wednesday. This team has a very hard time looking like a professional football team. I bet the Chargers at eight and a half. I'm having a hard time figuring out what the value is on the Titans. other than their eight and a half point home dog because the Chargers, they should crush in this game if they play like the Chargers can play. Yeah and a lot of it I think it just what we talk about every week Like certain pros and certain groups they just playing the laws of averages Like, Chad's talking about here, these teams can't keep winning forever. Titans can't keep losing forever, can they? I think they can. Like, you just talked about it. You're missing key guys here. I can't state that enough. And, you know, it's a unique spot, too, with this Chargers team coming off kind of a mini-buy right. I mean, yeah, it's bizarre world. Justin Herbert, who couldn't stand being in front of the camera, is now it feels like at every sporting event with his super hot girlfriend. And it's like, I love it. Like, finally, Herbert's being a QB one. What's been lacking with this guy forever is just that embracing it like and the moxie of it. Now, I think, too, the season he's having, you know, people are loving Herbert. Right. He's in the top five. We talked about the MVP betting right now. he's just way up there and it's the stats, right? The 2000 yards, he's like a ton of passing yards. And when I really dove into this one, I kind of really thought to myself, what are me and Chad back in here with horrible on the road? Like, are there numbers here to back up us taking him as a big favorite here? Because I want to see why the pros are fading horrible here. Cause to me, this is like an autoplay horrible, big favorite against the team that can't stop the run without their best run defender what is there to fear and even the numbers back it up chad like our ball he's closed the favorite 11 times with the chargers he's seven and four against the spread in those games if we're going just him as a road favorite hardball since he's been with the chargers they're tending to against the spread as a road favorite against the spread that's crazy like i can't get over that now let's factor in extended rest that's a big deal for this chargers team they are a perfect 5-0, 5-0 against the spread in this spot with Harbaugh going from West Coast to East Coast. Now we're adding in Tennessee is the worst team historically covering. I just, it's under 10. I can't avoid it. We and Chad are on two huge chalk favorites, one in the Lions, one in the Chargers. I shockingly love them both.”
LAC 27, TEN 20 — Chargers beat Titans 27-20; LA's -8.5 spread busts (won by only 7).
“and moving this number down to eight and a half. But like you said, we'll take that value. Well, you just mentioned the other game, Minnesota at Detroit. Detroit is a nine-point favorite at Hard Rock, eight and a half at a lot of other places. I love it. This was Chad's choice. Why are people getting excited about J.J. McCarthy? Why are they trying to find the good in the two games that he played, which weren't very good, and getting excited about the number of eight and a half or nine for the Vikings? the Lions are a dominant team they do not have close games if they have close games it's games that they lose when they win they win so freaking big and this is a classic spot for them to win so big and I pointed this out on Tuesday it's not about the Brian Flores pass rush and pass defense. This Vikings rush defense just hasn't been good all year. They're bottom 10 across the board in multiple advanced analytics stats. Like this is not a rush defense that is going to hold up against a dominant rush offense, which is really what the Lions like to be. And we've seen that over multiple weeks. So I'm getting the Lions, Jared Goff, Dan Campbell, in a great rush offense against a bad rush defense at home with a quarterback who hasn't played in six weeks who they may or may not have been keeping on the bench because they're kind of worried about how good he might be well what's the debate here don't i don't want to hear oh well it's the number guy look at the teams that's what i have to say yeah honestly though it's i think a lot of these pros love jj like they got me to flip in the summer it must have been the summer heat but like i had zero view on jj didn't really have any kind of read on him and all summer these guys hyped him up said he's gonna be the next second coming of sam donald and he's been anything but right and this team this year this viking team is what i thought they were gonna be last year with sam donald thought it was gonna be a ton of dysfunction a nameless defense that just can't get after the key quarterback but last year everything went their way right they got all these crazy turnover bounces and this year it's not hitting the same And, you know, a couple of trends that maybe pros are betting here with this Vikings team. The only one I could think of was, well, it's a Lions team, a huge win against the Bucs and then a bye week. Right. Usually a team with a big win like that on an extended homestead. So, you know, 10, 15 plus days in this exact spot. This is, again, a lot of data. they're 79 104 so 44 against the spread in this spot so you could say well this isn't a great spot for the lines same counter i have with that chargers one it's about the coaching like there i can't see campbell letting the guys have a letdown here and okay let's dive in the numbers with campbell what he's been like with extended rest with this lines team they're 15 and four against the spread covering by almost seven points per game in this exact spot so i love it like i I love the fact that Campbell gets his guys ready for these type of games, even when they're big favorites in this spot. Because you know it been what Chad three years now that the Lions have been getting the respect from the books and they still covering in a 70 clip They been big favorites in a lot of these spots and we had to just bite the bullet and take it because we know it a little bit of an inflated line But to me, it's just like the Chargers, under that key number of 10 and 11. I'm going to take it here.”
MIN 27, DET 24 — Vikings beat Lions 27-24; Detroit's -8.5 spread busts (lost outright).
“So we're still on Houston minus one and a half.”
DEN 18, HOU 15 — Broncos beat Texans 18-15; Houston's -1.5 spread busts (lost outright).
“I definitely bet the Jags a minus three. Kansas City, Kansas City minus two at Buffalo. This was Simon says when it was one and a half, it's moved towards two at a lot of places. But when it hits two, it seems like some buyback has happened on the Buffalo Bills. No Isaiah Pacheco in this game for the Chiefs, but no Ed Oliver for the Bills. Like in the scheme of things, I think that's a much worse situation for the Bills than it is for the Chiefs. I'm going to like backing Mahomes as a short favorite in just about any scenario. I like backing the unit offensively that I think is more complete against a depleted defense. I know that the Chiefs are riding high. I know they've been covering, but I think there's a difference between a Colts riding high and covering and a chief's riding high and covering. And I know you're with me on this. I don't think we're buyers on the bills defense and that's the biggest problem to me. Yeah. Not a buyer in the bills defense. And I just, I'm not a buyer on Josh on right now. Like I just, something seems off with them. Um, I talked about it going into the draft process. The number one guy I trust trust for a wide receiver value evaluation is Steve Smith. Uh, he's, he does not pull punches when he breaks down this buffalo receiving core like keon coleman he says he shouldn't even be in the league like this guy can't get separation doesn't run crisp routes doesn't help josh allen josh allen's in scrambling mode which shakir you know he's been a great receiver for them because he gets he does that for them so that's allowing 20 points or fewer so it's happened 28 times in his career he is 23 and 5 straight up against those teams 22 and 5 ATS against those type of teams that's what makes him Superman that's why he's MVP of the league last year Josh Allen he faces dominant defense it didn't matter he's there's no scheme to stop him right now just feels like his receivers himself are beating themselves he just doesn't look comfortable his throws aren't great he He doesn't make the right reads either. He just locks into guys. And when he's in scramble mode, it doesn't feel like his receivers are helping him out either. So just going back to the data too, him being a home dog, super rare. I looked through it. It's only happened about five times. And he's won every time. The only one loss was two. Mahomes. So we know the deal here. Like you said, the resistance is at two. A bunch of books did hit two and a half. a ton of money came in a ton of money came in on this Bills team shocked it held it too I thought it would go back down to one and a half so that's what I keep telling people it is split the pros are split down the middle here and like me I've taken a large position on this Chiefs team I really like it I know some guys out of their way”
KC 21, BUF 28 — Bills beat Chiefs 28-21; Kansas City's -2 spread busts (lost outright).
“Carolina. Two big favorites. Two big favorites. Jesus. What has happened? The way it's going this year. What has happened to us? Carolina is a 13 and a half point underdog on the road at the Green Bay Packers. And our question on Tuesday was, would Bryce Young be starting? He is. I had to dig deep on this one. Here's something that was interesting to me. So Carolina allows the fifth fewest plays per game, which equals a top 10 success rate on early downs, meaning the teams they play don't get big gains early in a series. The Packers rank 23rd in plays per game. They're very explosive. So we know they're going to be able to score points, but they do it while not getting a lot of long drives. They don't have a lot of plays over the course of a game. So you could argue with Bryce Young and a run defense that until this past week against the Bills had been trending upward and the fact that they are very good in early down success rate, they might be able to limit the Packers scoring opportunities, which makes it harder to cover a two touchdown spread. Am I stretching Am I reaching Am I just trying to find a way to feel comfortable betting on the Panthers which I haven done by the way I just sort of laying out a theory on a really big number for a team that had been trending upward And I think that the Packers might be overvalued because of what happened the past couple of weeks You're hilarious. I thought you bet this. I bet the Panthers, but it's not one of my bigger bets. I'm simply I mean, sounds stupid. We are simply playing the number here.”
CAR 16, GB 13 — Panthers beat Packers 16-13; Carolina's +13.5 spread covers (lost by only 3).
“I took some on the over just in case there is no Max Crosby the total is 44 and a half like okay I bite on that”
JAX 29, LV 30 — Raiders beat Jaguars 30-29 in OT, combined 59 points; the Over 44.5 total cashes.
“I love Jacksonville. Minus 150. Great. Put it in. I don't hate that. Or we could throw in Dallas, minus 145. I like that. I think I like Dallas more than I like fuck I hate them both kind of actually I don't think about it those are two good options because again you're not with me on the Colts which I think they're yeah they're minus 170 so the odds aren't as good either let's go with Jacksonville okay money line round robin favorites Kansas City Houston Chargers Detroit Jacksonville”
KC 21-BUF 28; HOU 15-DEN 18; LAC 27-TEN 20; DET 24-MIN 27; JAX 29-LV 30 — Money-line round robin busts: Chiefs lost to Bills 21-28, Texans lost to Broncos 15-18, Chargers beat Titans 27-20 (won), Lions lost to Vikings 24-27, Jaguars beat Raiders 30-29 OT (won); with two of five legs losing outright the parlay does not clear.
“and there's just no defenders downfield that can stop. Ladd McConkie, Keenan Allen, like that type of – I mean, they're tight end now for the Chargers all of a sudden as a stud, this rookie tight end. Aranda Gadsden. I used to love Aranda Gadsden when he played for the Dolphins. He had massive hands and was so good at catching the ball. Huge, huge fan of Aranda Gadsden. So, yeah, just I get where you're coming from. It's like, is this line too big? I don't think it is. So I'll grab the nine and a half while I still can. And I think this gets back up to ten, ten and a half.”
LAC 27, TEN 20 — Chargers beat Titans 27-20; LA's -9.5 spread busts (won by only 7).
“This is my Simon Says, but give me the Chiefs minus one-and-a-half.”
KC 21, BUF 28 — Bills beat Chiefs 28-21; Kansas City's -1.5 spread busts (lost outright).
“Houston Texans 49ers total is 41 and a half. Even when they're missing pieces of 49ers, I think both defenses are going to be on the forefront here. This feels like a 17 to 10, 17 to 13 type of game. Just... Two defenses going at it this entire game. I really like that low total.”
HOU 26, SF 15 — Texans beat 49ers 26-15; combined 41 points, Under 41.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Give me that under 40.5.”
NE 32, CLE 13 — Patriots beat Browns 32-13; combined 45 points, Under 40.5 failed to cover (ESPN box score).
“That's the only other team I could think of, even though I've only bet them at minus 13.5. The Colts are an interesting play at minus 14.5. no Simmons now for Tennessee but taking them over the Steelers I can't get there so I just wanted to mention I am on the Colts do like the Colts even if they're you know minus 14 and a half”
IND 38, TEN 14 — Colts beat Titans 38-14, covering -13.5 (ESPN box score).
“We have the Pittsburgh Steelers tonight plus three and a half to round out our final five.”
GB 35, PIT 25 — Packers beat Steelers 35-25; Steelers +3.5 failed to cover (ESPN box score).
“we gonna like san francisco at houston houston is a one point favorite at hard rock bet this was simon says i hope people got it because at a lot of other places it moved to one and a half And the Niners had even more injuries on defense on Sunday. And I think they're having a really hard time getting pressure without Bosa. And that has been the biggest problem for CJ Stroud. We saw a lot of that against the Seahawks. So I'm feeling more and more comfortable, even though we've got a flipped line here just for a moment on the Texans and as you mentioned it in sharp calls. So give me your take on why we're still feeling comfortable. I thought you were going to say something real crazy there. Yeah. So I'm walking away. Well, it's always funny. Like I'm out and about and I ran into a couple of buddies who do listen to our show and they're like, dude, are you the sucker for taking a two and four Houston team against a five and two 49ers team when they're favorite? Like, isn't this an easy bet on the 49ers? I'm like, when you say something like that to me, it makes me more confident on Houston, where it's like, I'm hoping more people think like he is, where they're overlooking a lot of the underlying stuff with this 49ers team. And like you said, the injuries is the biggest one. But to me, it's the trends. Shanahan, whatever it is, he's moving in this era that his teams just don't get up for games after wins. Since 2023, so like late December 2023, 49ers, 1-13 against the spread after a straight up win. and they're failing to cover those spreads by seven and a half points. So that's not just a little bit of data. That's over two years now. Like 2023, December, that was a long time ago. Just a different team after these wins in the sense that they just don't cover. Like the fact that they get overvalued by the general public after wins just shows that's happening time and time again in the market. So I really like that stat for Houston, and I immediately thought to myself, okay, well, let's dive into what Chad talked about, right? The defense, how have they been and how is the 49ers offense against really good defenses? And, you know, their last nine games against defenses, again, this is a Shanahan stat again, defense that allowed 17 points or less per game, which is, that's the Houston's bread and butter right now. They're a great defensive team. Shanahan's one and eight against the spread on the road or neutral sites since 2022. He's actually lost five straight in this exact spot. So I already kind of loved Houston here because what Chad talked about there a ton of injuries to this 49ers team and I felt like this was a get spot for Houston that just got embarrassed on a short week This is kind of the perfect recipe of them to get that taste out of their mouth move on to the next week in this 49ers team. Now, with all the unknown of Purdy and a banged-up Mac Jones, we still don't know who the quarterback is for this week. I just think there's so much going on now with this 49ers team. Them being 5-3 with all they've gone through, that makes more sense than this Houston team. Totally laying another egg. at home here and the 49ers moved to six and two this feels like a bad spot plus 49ers team on the flip side houston their defense this this should be a great match for them the sense that they have two limited quarterbacks they have two really good ed ruchers on their team and like we said that that defense they put them in the spot to win against the seahawks the cj just screwed us over and chad talked about it cj has no pass rush fear that tends to be when he shines so So I'm glad you've come around this Texas team. I know it feels gross. I get why on Tuesday you were like, I hate this. But it just feels like it's a number you have to play in a spot we have to bet.”
HOU 26, SF 15 — Texans beat 49ers 26-15, covering -1 (ESPN box score).
“New York Jets plus six and a half at Cincinnati. I've been trying to avoid this one. All right, let's avoid it then. I mean, like, we're going to have to find five bets that we love, and it makes no sense that the Bengals are six and a half point favorites over anyone. If we know Tyrod Taylor is starting on Sunday and we still have 48 hours to truly understand if he is, it feels like it might have to make it into one of our favorites. The first five weeks of the year, the Jets played struggling or bad defenses in the Steelers, Cowboys, Dolphins, Bucks, and Bills, averaged 23 points a game. The Bengals have allowed fewer than 27 points once this season. It is just a dreadful, dreadful, dreadful defense. It's the kind of defense that might be Aaron Glenn and Jets proof. You know what I mean? And so – I don't know. I'm not going to waste people's time on it. But if you want to just – if you don't like any of our other bets and you're like, what's the grossest bet that I have to bet this week because it's a long-term winner? This Jets is a long-term winner. I know it doesn't feel like it, but it's a unique spot. I mean, there's tons of stats. Teams that are 0-4 like they are and they go on the road, they tend to cover these exact games. The only other team 0-4 this year that's gone on the road and covered was the Titans. The Titans did it. So that's what I mean. It's usually a spot for these teams. I mean, the Titans could do it. Goddamn Jets. You got to do it as well. But I'm with you. I'm not going to force this into our contest. I'm not going to make people bet this one. But yes, I will be on the Jets. We will put them in our money line, Ron Robin.”
NYJ 39, CIN 38 — Jets beat Bengals 39-38 outright; Jets +6.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Do you want to talk about Patriots-Browns game or no? I don't know what to do with it because it feels like the spot where we should be completely walking away if we know better from the Browns because it's not where they are. It's like we found a winning formula. No, no, I'm on New England. Aren't you on New England with me? Yeah, yeah, yeah, totally. So I am on New England. I don't know how the Browns are getting any points. Dylan Garibaldi is not an NFL quarterback. That's it. I saw this amazing stat. It goes to the Patriots and the Bears, and it's basically about these teams on these four-plus game ATS win streaks, like straight up and against the spread. so those teams that didn't this again evan abram's amazing stat these are those exact teams that didn't make the playoffs last year and now they're on four plus game winning streaks straight up and against the spread in this exact spot they are 14 26 and one against the spread since 2022 they are one and 14 against the spread in this spot so it is like i know exactly we're walking into betting this Patriots team. We're stepping into it. And like, to be clear, like I shouldn't say I bet it. I have not. Other than the Panthers. No, I took six and they were six and a half a couple of books. I took that. I like I have not bet the Falcons. I have not bet the Giants. And I have not bet the Patriots. And I'm not sure that I will. The only bet I have to make you feel better than. Well, hold on. The only game I bet of those four seven to seven and a half point spreads is the Panthers. And that's only because I bet it in the summer when I thought the line would be much shorter because I was so in on the Panthers. Go ahead. So just this year, this feels like a variable stat. The Patriots, when they go up by a touchdown or more, so six plus points, they are 5-0 straight up and against the spread this season. That's why you bet it. You bet variable. Exactly. That's what I'm like thinking in this game, I'm trying to throw out all the other numbers where it's like that sums up the variable type of team he's going to be this year where it's like, if he gets up a lead in this game I just how do the Browns come back So Chad right We should try to avoid this one I don think I going to be able to I will be shocked come Sunday morning Like I going to probably bet in the Patriots minus seven I just I can get over how different this Browns team is on the road and how bad of a spot it is for their quarterback. So yeah, it just. Terrible.”
NE 32, CLE 13 — Patriots beat Browns 32-13, covering -7 (ESPN box score).
“I will still back this Broncos team, especially at minus three. [1:06:43] I think that's a great number. [1:06:45] It makes me nervous. [1:06:46] I'm not going to lie, but I'm in. [1:06:48] I'm totally in.”
DEN 44, DAL 24 — Broncos beat Cowboys 44-24, covering -3 (ESPN box score).
“I don't know who's betting Green Bay minus 3.5 other than smart professionals because the public, they're taking the threes. They're happy to take the minus threes on this Packers team. So what we really have to dive into is just what we talked a little bit about with Tomlin after his defense gets embarrassed. He bounces back. You know, the numbers prove that out. After allowing 30-plus points, Tomlin's defense is 29-12-1 against the spread. 71%. That's insane. Let the greatest of all time look at your work. When they're at home after a bad defensive performance like that, 21-8-1. 72% under Tomlin against the spread. So it's like, all right, those are stats we were looking for. That proves at our point that he gets his defenses up after those type of games. And a lot of it's being made in the media about Rodgers playing against his former team. The trends actually don't point to that being a good spot. Basically, every quarterback that's played their former team failed to cover, except Drew Brees, who covered and beat the Chargers. So I guess historically, it shows that these guys get in their own heads. It's a big moment, and it's tough for them to just play the game, not overthink things and get emotional playing their former team. But we also have some nice historical stuff on our side. The Packers just aren't good in Pittsburgh. Their last six games are only six the last 50 years. So the last time they won was in 1970. And, you know, it's crazy to think Pittsburgh, the last time they started that run of beating Green Bay at home, it was Terry Bradshaw beating, you know, a Bart Starr-led team. So it's been a long time. You're betting Green Bay, you're betting on something that hasn't happened in 50 years, people. So I love all those trends. that point to Tomlin. I love that we talked about with the defense. They seem to get right in these exact spots. And I just think our view of Green Bay is right, that they're just – something's wrong with them. They're not fully formed. The offense is just a little off. Their defense still isn't right. I think we're getting a good value here on this Pittsburgh team that we talked about. They got embarrassed last week. Their defense got embarrassed. Tomlin usually has those guys bounce back in the spot. So, trends love it. We love it. Can't avoid it. Going to hammer this one. It'll probably be one of my bigger bets this week.”
GB 35, PIT 25 — Packers beat Steelers 35-25; Steelers +3.5 failed to cover (ESPN box score).
“So, yeah, number-wise, like I said, my model is at six. I'm still going to take the Patriots. I probably would still take them if it was minus seven and a half.”
NE 32, CLE 13 — Patriots beat Browns 32-13, covering -7 (ESPN box score).
“So I guess I'll trust the model here, try to take my human aspect out, and I'll give out the Eagles still, and I'll bet the Eagles. But I felt way better at 6.5, like you said. Now it's getting closer to 7.5. So I'll take the 7 now before it moves to that number.”
PHI 38, NYG 20 — Eagles beat Giants 38-20, covering -7 (ESPN box score).
“give me Houston minus one I want to play a game Simon Says Simon Says presented by Hard Rock Better Houston Texans minus one give it to me”
HOU 26, SF 15 — Texans beat 49ers 26-15, covering -1 (ESPN box score).
“Tennessee at Indy. Indy is a 13. and a half point favorite. Simon, our beliefs are being tested. That's all I can say about this. Yeah, we're supposed to be in Tennessee, but I don't care. I'll take the Colts. Are you taking the Colts or are we just, are we, like you're actively going to take the Colts here? Yeah, and I'll throw them”
IND 38, TEN 14 — Colts beat Titans 38-14, covering -13.5 (ESPN box score).
“The pros might be right on Green Bay, but I can't avoid it, especially at plus three and a half. Couldn't avoid it. Plus three. Still love it.”
GB 35, PIT 25 — Packers beat Steelers 35-25; Steelers +3 failed to cover (ESPN box score).
“against the blitz so we're gonna need them to get pressure with four i gotta do it i gotta stay on the chargers side so we can force this one in i'm with it like i said there's a lot of games i really like this this week they're minus one and a half in our contest yet so we're getting a good number it's a good matchup I do like the Chargers”
IND 38-24 LAC — Colts beat Chargers 38-24; Los Angeles -1.5 busts, losing outright by 14 (ESPN box score).
“Saints, they're plus six and a half at home against the Bucs. again you don't have to grab it if you don't want to so early I can probably see it going up it's just going to be only professionals grabbing the Saints at this point but I just I like that number it Kingdom River 6 so I am grabbing it”
TB 23-3 NO — Buccaneers beat Saints 23-3; New Orleans +6.5 busts, losing outright by 20 (ESPN box score).
“We got a Tomlin spot. Pittsburgh plus three at home against Greenback. Oh, goodness. We got to do that. So very interesting to open that plus three because I know right away we're going to grab that.”
GB 35-25 PIT — Packers beat Steelers 35-25; Pittsburgh +3 busts, losing outright by 10 (ESPN box score).
“division so i i agree with you though there are games i like more it's just i have taken a position on this one i'm betting the raiders and like i said i was hoping i was going to get the 13 the pros they have the same number as i do if they've they've they've come in it never touched 13 it only got up to 12 and a half like chet said it's a dead number not going to be one of our bets most likely but yeah i i do like the raiders in the spot”
KC 31-0 LV — Chiefs shut out Raiders 31-0; Las Vegas +12.5 busts, losing outright by 31 (ESPN box score).
“Simon, on Tuesday's show, you said take Minnesota plus two and a half. I really hope people were paying attention, and I hope they stopped whatever they were doing whenever they heard that to go get the Vikings at two and a half, because it's now at one and a half. It might come back, though. obviously that's the professional side that money's come in, but we talked about the risk with this bet and taking this position was, I didn't know the injury report, right? We were doing that on Tuesday. JJ McCarthy did practice, which to me, I don't know about you, Chad. I did not make this bet to bet on JJ McCarthy against a Fangs defense.”
PHI 28-22 MIN — Eagles beat Vikings 28-22; Minnesota +2.5 busts, losing outright by 6 (ESPN box score).
“We sit here right now, I've taken a pretty large position on this Tennessee team at plus seven.”
NE 31-13 TEN — Patriots beat Titans 31-13; Tennessee +7 busts, losing outright by 18 (ESPN box score).
“Maybe we'll land on two. We're getting one and a half almost every book right now. That's such a great number. So you don't have to take it here at Hard Rock. Hard Rock is usually a sharper book. We've seen they usually get smart money coming in on certain sides. So Hard Rock could easily get up to two and a half. I could see professionals keep taking this Chargers side. For all of you out there, shop around. Find the one and a half. It's out there. I know the juice isn't great. It's usually minus 115, minus 112. But I think it's worth paying in this spot with this line on this Chargers team.”
IND 38-24 LAC — Colts beat Chargers 38-24; Los Angeles -1.5 busts, losing outright by 14 (ESPN box score).
“I took a position Sunday night on Giants 7.5, and that's honestly, that's it.”
DEN 33-32 NYG — Broncos beat Giants 33-32 on a field goal as time expired; New York +7.5 covers, losing by only 1 (ESPN box score).
“As you sit here right now my biggest position is if you can get the Houston three and a half join me”
SEA 27-19 HOU — Seahawks beat Texans 27-19 on Monday Night Football; Houston +3.5 busts, losing outright by 8 (ESPN box score).
“in his career we got to take the bears in that spot especially at Minus 225. Patriots, they're minus 345. I'm not crazy about that one. It feels like that's been bet up. I mean, it's literally getting 90% of the money in the bets right now, so that is pretty crazy. But we only have so many options, so we have to put that one in. Give me the Chargers, minus 130. Really like that spot for this Chargers team. That'll help us eat up some of these big chalk favorites we're taking, which, again, Green Bay, we can put them in there. They're minus 345. I know you love Denver. I'm on board with it. They're minus 360. And the last one we have to get in there, Detroit minus 250 right now. Well, that's six. Yeah, yeah, because I want to put them in in case people miss. If you don't want to put the Steelers in, if you don't want to put the Chiefs adjusted line in, I want to give out a plenty of options. That's six after those two. Green Bay, Bears, Patriots, Chargers, Detroit, and Denver. I like it. Again, I did six last week. I'll do six again this week.”
Favorite ML parlay busts: Packers beat Cardinals 27-23 (won); Bears beat Saints 26-14 (won); Broncos beat Giants 33-32 (won); Chargers lost to Colts 24-38; Patriots beat Titans 31-13 (won); Lions beat Buccaneers 24-9 (won) — Chargers leg loses the parlay (ESPN box scores).
“Like this is a Jags line. Like a three, shop around, there's still threes out there. I'd be on the Jaguars here because, like Chad said, But these international games are sloppy.”
LAR 35-7 JAX — Rams routed Jaguars 35-7 in London; Jacksonville +3 busts, losing outright by 28 (ESPN box score).
“I'll take it I'm on it with you the pros are on it too we're seeing a couple books already pop at three So definitely grab it while you can. I mean, unfortunately it is minus 120, but I think it's worth paying that for this line at minus two and a half.”
CLE 31-6 MIA — Browns beat Dolphins 31-6; Cleveland -2.5 covers by 22.5 (ESPN box score).
“So, Simon says, give me the plus two and a half on this Vikings team.”
PHI 28-22 MIN — Eagles beat Vikings 28-22; Minnesota +2.5 busts, losing outright by 6 (ESPN box score).
“yeah i talked a little sunday night that i i saw the line i was like oh my god i'm gonna have to back detroit aren't i um and surprisingly only real bet i made is the under in this game total I think was 53 and a half and it's come down to 53 still like that under”
DET 24-9 TB — Lions beat Buccaneers 24-9 on Monday Night Football, combining for 33 points; Under 53 covers (ESPN box score).
“Give me Houston plus three and a half.”
SEA 27-19 HOU — Seahawks beat Texans 27-19 on Monday Night Football; Houston +3.5 busts, losing outright by 8 (ESPN box score).
“and a three and a half in the contest. I got to take it, brother. look the only thing that is starting to scare me a little bit is there's potential weather and wind impacting the game yeah and like that could turn it into a much lower scoring game right that could change how these teams approach the passing game and see what it'll do to their ability to move the ball downfield but i and look the cowboys javante williams has been great this year but things trending for Chiba Hubbard to play again even then Rico Dowdle had 200 yards rushing last week so I still going to be on the side of the Panthers here”
CAR 30, DAL 27 — Panthers beat Cowboys 30-27 outright; Panthers +3.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I have no doubt we will be down three heading to half with this Pittsburgh side. That's just how it is when you're taking Tom as a favorite. But like Chad said, we bet it all week. I bet it four. I bet it four and a half. I've even bet it still this morning. It's five and a half. I bet it again because I'm like Chad. I think it's going to keep going up to six, six and a half as the public wakes up here early in the morning. So four and a half contest. Can't avoid it. Got to put it in, Chad.”
PIT 23, CLE 9 — Steelers beat Browns 23-9; margin of 14 covers Steelers -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“sunday night and like you said i you could have maybe talked me out of the chat this morning if it was two and a half in our contest at one and a half this has been locked in for us since tuesday like this is one of the first bets i put in for us no brainer can't avoid it we are all in on these”
KC 30, DET 17 — Chiefs beat Lions 30-17; margin of 13 covers Chiefs -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“Like not someone you want starting for you, let alone against a Colts team that just looks like an absolute juggernaut. So can we get burned? Could the Colts finally have a really bad game and we get burned by it? Sure. And they're coming off, what, a 30, 40 point win against the Raiders last week. But I just think they're rolling. They're such a good team. Arizona feels like the totally opposite. They're just not as well coached in the sense. And yeah, this is, like we said, all about the number. Six and a half, no brainer. Got to put it in the contest. It's a number play.”
IND 31, ARI 27 — Colts beat Cardinals 31-27; margin of 4 falls short of Colts -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“so to me we're we're we're compromising really on the saints and the patriots where we just completely disagree and and the raiders i feel like you don't love but you still bet it and you can bet it yeah like i said i bet it and i completely see your rationale and like i told you the trends also point to it being yes technically a good spot for this raider team which again i I couldn't believe they exist because this Raiders team just seems dreadful in so many ways. But, yeah, I just locked it in, brother. We got Chiefs, Raiders, Panthers, Pittsburgh, Colts. Our final picks are Carolina plus 3.5. Steelers minus 4.5. Colts minus six and a half. Chiefs minus one and a half. Raiders minus four and a half.”
LV 20, TEN 10 — Raiders beat Titans 20-10; margin of 10 covers Raiders -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“And I personally have only bet this three and a half. So I don't want to be giving out the three on this Carolina side.”
CAR 30, DAL 27 — Panthers beat Cowboys 30-27 outright; Panthers +3.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“of three and a half on the saints three and a half um took positions on pittsburgh still would i guess the five and a half but obviously i feel much better when it was in the fours”
PIT 23, CLE 9 — Steelers beat Browns 23-9; margin of 14 covers Steelers -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“But yeah, I'm still in the Saints. And like my view of it was to get the number before it moved. Because I was just like, okay, the public will be on the Patriots here. Will the pros join me on the Saints side? Will they bet this down to three? I feel like Hard Rock's the only one that moved. Like if you want the three and a half, there are so many out there. And I think I'll get back there.”
NE 25, NO 19 — Patriots beat Saints 25-19; Saints lost by 6, missing Saints +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“hands, they should be able to win this game and win this game by margin. So I'm still in the Raiders. Still in Raiders and the professionals are coming on Tennessee. It's like, again, they don't always win. So I'm happy to join Chad and shop around. You can find minus three and a half and I don't care for the suckers here I saw the best laziest stat of the week which”
LV 20, TEN 10 — Raiders beat Titans 20-10; margin of 10 covers Raiders -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I've obviously bet into this. Like, I'm all in on this three. It's like, and I've got guys telling me not to do it. And it's like, I got to touch the hot stove. I can't help it here. This is, the number doesn't make sense. Because once again, if Purdy is out, their number one and number two receivers are out again. You're betting on lightning striking twice with this 49ers team. Like, what happened that Rams game felt so incredibly flukish. Yeah, the Niners. Covering it. The Niners didn't win that game. Right. The Rams lost that game. And even the cover where it's like, You're betting on Matt Jones again to be 20 of 23 passing and not the punt until midway through the fourth quarter. Like, I just feel like the ask is way too big if you're back in this 49ers team. So, like I said, people can be careful here. There's clear. I clearly have a blind spot here. I maybe talked to two other really smart groups that are on this Bucs side, but they're like me. They're scratching their heads a little bit. And like, I don't know. Are we idiots here? Like, this feels like a gift getting minus three on a Bucs team that with all their injuries they do have in their secondary.”
TB 30, SF 19 — Buccaneers beat 49ers 30-19; margin of 11 covers Buccaneers -3 (ESPN box score).
“moving before that. It just feels like people are still underestimating the Chiefs. They're overestimating the Lions. The Chiefs offense isn't as bad as people thought it was going to be. The Lions offense, they're going on grass, a little banged up. I don't mind being on the Chiefs here. I kind of like it. I bet the Chiefs at minus two. Yeah, honestly, I do mind. I feel sick to my stomach because I was just trying to find a reason to be under Troy, and I just haven't. I'm on the Chiefs with Chad.”
KC 30, DET 17 — Chiefs beat Lions 30-17; margin of 13 covers Chiefs -2 (ESPN box score).
“because I do like the number. I like the 4.5. I bet the 4.5.”
CHI 25, WSH 24 — Bears beat Commanders 25-24 outright; Bears +4.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“again chalky bet but I'll take that Steelers minus four yeah it became more clear in the light of day”
PIT 23, CLE 9 — Steelers beat Browns 23-9; margin of 14 covers Steelers -4 (ESPN box score).
“Simon Says, presented by Hard Rock Bet, the Saints plus three and a half.”
NE 25, NO 19 — Patriots beat Saints 25-19; Saints lost by 6, missing Saints +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“but like, I feel like you're on the same page as me. Like you just have to bet these big numbers against the, since the team until they show you something at least two three weeks in a row so we're not even at week one yet um we're like being scared of betting against the bangles i'm just going to keep rolling with it the number can't get big enough but the books are pushing it like this is insane being at 14 and a half at a lot of books 14 at hard rock that's pretty shocking but again it feels warranted that's how bad this bangles team has looked this year”
GB 27, CIN 18 — Packers beat Bengals 27-18; margin of 9 falls short of Packers -14 (ESPN box score).
“that's the type of guy that could maybe flip me to this buffalo side but um i'm with chad you sit here right now i like atlanta like you said one pub one very very public book you can still get plus four and a half i think you got to grab the four and a half i'll do it like i'm with you on It's like that's a key number, a big number.”
ATL 24, BUF 14 — Falcons beat Bills 24-14 outright; Falcons +4.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“i think in the contest the jets are at plus two and a half i love it but it's the same exact thing as the saints every pro i've talked to is right there with us”
DAL 37-NYJ 22 — Cowboys beat the Jets 37-22; New York lost by 15, missing the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“right all right last game that we can think about and then we'll make a call washington at the la Chargers. This was the second Simon Says. You were prescient on the Texans. You said take the Texans at plus three and a half on Tuesday. The show was live for an hour, maybe two at the most, when that game moved because of all the Lamar Jackson noise to making the Texans a favorite. Jaden Daniels will be playing. Most of the Chargers starting offensive line will not. I'm starting to like this game more than any other game we are picking right now and I know if we leave it out we will lose whatever game we keep in its place that fair it it two and a half still uh in our contest and um it three there two and a half and three out there right now Yeah yeah For people that are betting I grab the three”
LAC 10-WSH 27 — Commanders beat the Chargers 27-10; Washington's +17 margin covers the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“comfortable giving away four points of value it was three points right it's minus one and a half It was their plus one and a half, but they were, they were plus two on Sunday night.”
NO 26-NYG 14 — Saints beat the Giants 26-14; New Orleans' +12 margin covers the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“here trust in the spot hold your nose people this is a gross one give me this commander's team plus two and a half.”
LAC 10-WSH 27 — Commanders beat the Chargers 27-10; Washington's +17 margin covers the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Jets plus two and a half”
DAL 37-NYJ 22 — Cowboys beat the Jets 37-22; New York lost by 15, missing the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Like, again, it was the four and a half. I did bet to Denver, but I've been patient on that one. If they get back to four and a half or it gets back to four, that'll probably be another one of my bigger bets.”
PHI 17-DEN 21 — Broncos beat the Eagles 21-17 with a fourth-quarter comeback; the outright win covers the +4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Still going to be on the Panthers especially at plus one and a half”
MIA 24-CAR 27 — Panthers rallied to beat the Dolphins 27-24; Carolina's +3 margin covers the +1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“What will this number end up at? Right. Is it going to be a pick? Is this going to flip to Houston being a favorite? Let's get ahead of it. I'm going to grab that three and a half.”
BAL 10-HOU 44 — Texans routed the Ravens 44-10; Houston's +34 margin easily covers the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“But I just feel like the Lions are rolling. Bengals just feel like everything's so bad. I mean, just the coaching disparity here just feels like it's worth another point or two that it should have been bumped up from eight and a half to nine and a half ten so i i people can tell i'm just so out on this bangles team and i know it's probably the side i should be on but i'll take the line side here and i'll i'll take the minus nine and a half if you can find it but like as chad said it's going up”
CIN 24-DET 37 — Lions beat the Bengals 37-24; Detroit's +13 margin covers the -9.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“if you like the denver side which i do i grab the four and a half but if you like the ego side you”
PHI 17-DEN 21 — Broncos beat the Eagles 21-17 with a fourth-quarter comeback; the outright win covers the +4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“five and a half I am on board with you even at six I bet the Chargers so I'm invested like I'm”
NYG 21, LAC 18 — Giants beat Chargers 21-18; Los Angeles's -3 margin fails to cover -6 (ESPN box score).
“stopping the run, and yeah, I'm really just playing the number here. Three and a half just feels like too many points, too much disrespect to a Bucs team. So I know it's scary. Like me and Chad talked about, these two first teams we just talked about, both these teams were 3-0 against the spread. Or I guess the Bucs didn't cover last week, but Chad knows. I mean, we're betting undefeated teams right now for our first two picks. But I just love the number.”
PHI 31, TB 25 — Eagles beat Buccaneers 31-25; Tampa Bay's -6 margin fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Are we crazy for still wanting the Lions at nine and a half? No, this will be a quick one. Love the Lions. Nothing's changed. There's some pros on the other side that like Cleveland, and I get it. But I think our early read in the week was right. It's still right today, and I'll own it. If you're not as confident in this one, I'm really confident. I'll own it later tonight if this doesn't come through. This is probably one of my bigger bets is this Lions side in this spot. And there are nine and a halves out there, people. So go grab it.”
DET 34, CLE 10 — Lions beat Browns 34-10; Detroit's +24 margin covers -9.5 (ESPN box score).
“It's six, five and a half right now, Colts. It's moving. It's now six and a half. Grab it. As soon as we came on this call, because me and Chad were watching that Raiders game live, I was just hammering the Colts five and a half and six and was hoping that's what it would be for this show. So it's already going to six and a half. I'd keep taking it.”
IND 40, LV 6 — Colts beat Raiders 40-6; Indianapolis's +34 margin covers -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“I bet 7 on the Cowboys.”
DAL 40, GB 40 — Packers and Cowboys tied 40-40; Dallas's 0 margin covers +7 (ESPN box score).
“I do know some pros that they're not getting off the Daniel Jones train yet. They just think him running this type in the Shanahan type of offense is just working for this Colts team right now. So I know, me and Chad went to three, but I'm glad to say three and a half because that's what's going to be in our contest. So that's what I've been betting all week. It's one of my bigger bets. I'm going to stick with it. Ends up being in our contest. I got no issue with it. I just, I got to trust the Rams in this spot, in this matchup,”
LAR 27, IND 20 — Rams beat Colts 27-20; Los Angeles's +7 margin covers -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“That's really what that keeps telling me. So hold your nose. If you can still get the plus seven, go grab it. I'm praying this is six and a half, so we don't have to put it in a contest, but because of that number, I have to do it. And I really, really, really trust Dak when he's a big dog in the spot.”
DAL 40, GB 40 — Packers and Cowboys tied 40-40; Dallas's 0 margin covers +7 (ESPN box score).
“And this Tampa team has major injuries to our offensive line. They have injuries to their secondary. It might be without Mike Evans. That's why this number is going to keep moving. There's a couple games this week that a lot of lines have moved because of injuries. So I'm going to grab the three and a half just in case the professionals do come in and hit this back down to three,”
PHI 31, TB 25 — Eagles beat Buccaneers 31-25; Tampa Bay's -6 margin fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“heavily in the Chiefs just winning outright”
KC 22, NYG 9 — Chiefs beat the Giants 22-9; Kansas City wins outright on the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“I am on the Chiefs minus 5.5. Simon has generally been with me, but more likely he is heavily invested in the Chiefs' money line above all else in that game. Accurate? Yeah. I bet the 5.5.”
KC 22, NYG 9 — Chiefs beat the Giants 22-9; Kansas City -5.5 covers by 7.5 (ESPN box score).
“I saw 7.5 on the Jets”
TB 29, NYJ 27 — Buccaneers beat the Jets 29-27 on a game-winning FG as time expired; New York +7.5 covers by 5.5 (ESPN box score).
“And that's why, again, I'm upset. I wish this was two and a half on the show. Two and a half in our contest, no-brainer, easy bet. at one and a half, I'm still probably in on them for our contest because I just think this is such a good spot with such a desperate team in Texans and their defense.”
JAX 17, HOU 10 — Jaguars beat the Texans 17-10; Houston +1.5 busts by 5.5 (ESPN box score).
“Pittsburgh at New England. New England is a one-and-a-half point underdog. Look, I thought this would move towards the Pats. It's moved a little bit in the direction of the Steelers as far as the juice. I'm just really down on the Steelers. And we talked about this on Tuesday. Their defense just isn't very good. I also think Rodgers is pretty pedestrian. Christian Gonzalez, the Patriots defensive back, did practice this week, limited on Wednesday. Do I all of a sudden believe in Vrabel again? You've been telling me I have to believe in Vrabel. Am I believing in Vrabel right now? I know. It feels like we're supposed to in this spot, right? And I know that historically Tomlin's actually struggled in this exact spot, and the trends look at that, and they're just like, okay. It shows that Tomlin, as a favorite, has struggled on the road. He's also struggled historically against his Patriots team. It doesn't matter if Belichick had Brady or Mac Jones or whoever in their quarterback. This has just never been a Frable spot. And Aaron Rodgers, surprisingly, 0-2 in his career playing against New England in New England. So, you know, Frable, for me, I think we're in the alignment of he does bring something to this team. and that's going to show itself all season. It's really about us believing in Drake, May, if we're going to take this spot here, Chad. And that's the toughest spot here for me, us putting this in the contest where I'm betting this. People want to know what side I'm on. I'm betting the Patriots. I'm on the Patriots. I like the number.”
PIT 21, NE 14 — Steelers beat the Patriots 21-14 on a late Rodgers TD pass; New England +1.5 busts by 5.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'd still take Eagles at three and a half, honestly, minus three and a half.”
PHI 33, LAR 26 — Eagles beat the Rams 33-26; Philadelphia -3.5 covers by 3.5 (ESPN box score).
“So we're betting on that. We're betting on the overreaction. The lines move too much. Hard Rock is plus one. Go get the one and a half. Get the hook because I could easily see Bears up to with 30 seconds”
CHI 31, DAL 14 — Bears beat the Cowboys 31-14; Chicago +1.5 covers by 18.5 (ESPN box score).
“I bet the five and a half on the Chiefs but the sharp side, the professional side, they're going to be on the Giants at 6.5”
KC 22, NYG 9 — Chiefs beat the Giants 22-9; Kansas City -5.5 covers by 7.5 (ESPN box score).
“But Panthers, I got to do it at five and a half, six if you can find it. It's just too much. And for me, I've just been betting too much on it where I can't stop betting the Panthers.”
CAR 30, ATL 0 — Panthers shut out the Falcons 30-0; Carolina +5.5 covers by a mile (ESPN box score).
“I'm on the Cardinals. The Cardinals are up to like plus three at a couple books. You know, Hard Rock here in Jersey has got plus two and a half, plus two, and it keeps bouncing around.”
SF 16, ARI 15 — 49ers beat the Cardinals 16-15 on a game-winning FG on the final play; Arizona +2.5 covers by 1.5 (ESPN box score).
“Simon says is Denver plus two and a half.”
LAC 23, DEN 20 — Broncos lost 23-20 to the Chargers on Herbert's late TD and Dicker's game-winning FG; Denver's +2.5 misses by half a point (ESPN box score).
“Simon also loves the Bears minus one and a half.”
CHI 31, DAL 14 — Bears routed the Cowboys 31-14 behind four Caleb Williams TD passes; Chicago -1.5 covers easily (ESPN box score).
“love the number on Sunday. Yeah. When I did the research yesterday, I was really concerned at how much I love the game. It's a great match for the Colts. Nearly made it a Chad loves love nearly. And like, it just felt no, that's, it's so chalky. You're setting yourself up to be disappointed. You're going to look like an idiot. You can't handle that. It will make your Sunday miserable. I've already betted at three. I'm not walking away from that. But geez, Louise, man, that just feels.”
IND 41, TEN 20 — Colts beat the Titans 41-20 behind three Jonathan Taylor rushing TDs; Indianapolis -3 covers by 18 (ESPN box score).
“i got it at four it five and a half i love cam ward i love this matchup for this tennessee”
LAR 33, TEN 19 — Rams beat Titans 33-19 in Week 2; Tennessee lost by 14, failing to cover +4 (ESPN box score).
“That's a big deal. So, you know, the professional side is going to be this Jets side. And we talked about all the teasers, all of it. It's all going to be Bill's money. So, like you, I feel confident in our spot. I'm just so happy we have the 6.5 because we need every point here against Josh Allen.”
BUF 30, NYJ 10 — Bills beat Jets 30-10 in Week 2; New York lost by 20, failing to cover +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to take it now. Now that's at one and a half for this Eagles side.”
PHI 20, KC 17 — Eagles beat Chiefs 20-17 in Week 2; Philadelphia covers -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“And watching that Denver game, there's a lot of ways Tennessee can make him really uncomfortable. And I like the idea of, you know, we're getting a good number. And that's where I agree with you that if this would be our last one, and again, it's not a final one yet. I have it in there at two and a half. I'm with you, Chad. I take it But my fear and my doubt here is just are we overvaluing this colts team after one week and we both agree they are good and there are some things we really like about them but”
IND 29, DEN 28 — Colts beat Broncos 29-28 on a late field goal in Week 2; Indianapolis covers +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“The books are thinking Tomlin going to motivate the guys or maybe it says more about the Seahawks defense I mean offense and defense but yeah three and a half with a total of 40 when we have a really good defense on the Seahawks side we'll see it's it's obviously we're banking a lot on Sam Darnold but it's it's really about the running scheme and that's where you think you could attack this Pittsburgh team so yeah no need to put it in at a bad number but three and a half people if you want to be on the same side as me I'm I'm taking that three and a half right now.”
SEA 31, PIT 17 — Seahawks beat Steelers 31-17 in Week 2; Seattle covers +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“it is coming in heavy on this Jets team every time it touches seven. So we both love it. I'm going to take the 6.5, and it really is just about the injuries to this Bills team and their secondary.”
BUF 30, NYJ 10 — Bills beat Jets 30-10 in Week 2; New York lost by 20, failing to cover +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“should be four three and a half we're getting a bump because of how bad cam ward and this team look to the general public but um you know the pros they've kept it under six we'll take the five five and a half and uh we talk all the time this this rams team they're actually kind of great in this spot right traveling from west to east they're actually not that terrible but we've seen right stafford is different when he's playing outdoors in these type of games and uh yeah i'm i'm fired up to see what the Tennessee crowd is like because right now the trends are not good about these”
LAR 33, TEN 19 — Rams beat Titans 33-19 in Week 2; Tennessee lost by 14, failing to cover +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“overvalued right now and somehow after that win this vikings team is somehow becoming undervalued and it's just playing the number minus three i got to take it at this value yeah i probably lean the vikings at minus three”
ATL 22, MIN 6 — Falcons beat Vikings 22-6 in Week 2; Minnesota lost outright, failing to cover -3 (ESPN box score).
“But now when I really dive into it, it's like three and a half. That's the right number for this game. So I am on the Jaguars side.”
CIN 31, JAX 27 — Bengals beat Jaguars 31-27 on a late TD in Week 2; Jacksonville lost by 4, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“says, give me the Vikings, minus four... and a half.”
ATL 22, MIN 6 — Falcons beat Vikings 22-6 in Week 2; Minnesota lost outright, failing to cover -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“Are you still seeing value on this? On Sunday night, you were liking the Colts. Where do you stand now? Yeah, another spot. I loved it. Couldn't believe it opened at three. Took the value Sunday. Bet it again yesterday. Now, like you just said, it's down to two. I'd still take that.”
IND 29, DEN 28 — Colts beat Broncos 29-28 on a late field goal in Week 2; Indianapolis covers +2 (ESPN box score).
“again chad was on the other episode side when this got to two and a half i immediately hit the patriots side again same as you though just dipping my toes in because i don't know how”
NE 33, MIA 27 — Patriots beat Dolphins 33-27 in Week 2; New England covers +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“Baltimore at Buffalo. The hard rock bet line is Baltimore minus one. Full disclosure, I played at minus one. We talked about it on the show. it was our rock in a hard place, hard rock bet of the week, Baltimore at minus one. We don't love playing games where the line is flipped from Baltimore as an underdog to Baltimore as a favorite. Those are scary, sticky spots to play. But in the contest lines we play, it's a plus one and a half. We're locking it in.”
BUF 41-40 BAL — Bills beat Ravens 41-40; Baltimore lost by 1, covering the +1.5 spread (ESPN game recap).
“So the final, remember we had the Chargers, so we're already 1-0. The final four for today, Cleveland plus five and a half. Baltimore, we liken it minus one. It's plus one and a half in our contest. The Dolphins plus one and a half. It's about plus one, plus one and a half in most books. No difference. Jags minus two and a half It been bet up to four and a half in a lot of books so minus four at hard rock bet so those are the picks as of right now that what we going to put in that what we will be”
JAX 26-10 CAR — Jaguars beat Panthers 26-10; Jacksonville won by 16, covering the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So this number at Hard Rock is already up to plus one, Chiefs. So I'm going to grab the Eagles now, and I'll maybe take a big position and buy back later on on the Chiefs if that becomes, you know, if this gets up to plus three, I don't have a choice.”
PHI 20-17 KC — Eagles beat Chiefs 20-17; Philadelphia won by 3, covering the -1 spread (ESPN box score).
“and I was shocked they hung a minus four and a half and um you know Lions at home minus four and a half against a Bears team that could what me and Chad think should be happening is them having a very emotional win on Monday night maybe you get better value but if they get rolled here this number could easily get up to six and a half like this Lions number could shoot up if this Bears This team does not look right and doesn't look prepared. So that's a number that jumped out. I grabbed it just thinking the public most likely wouldn't be on the Lions.”
DET 52-21 CHI — Lions beat Bears 52-21; Detroit won by 31, covering the -4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Another line that jumped out that I grabbed it just because we talked about the key number of two and a half. Seahawks, I'm going back to the world. They're playing Pittsburgh. And crazy ending to their game. Like just an insane, flukish end. And I think the Seahawks in this game would have been at a pick, honestly. If they would have won that game at home, I think they would have got more respect from the general public. Feels like we're getting a free point and a half, two points here. And I'll say this about Pittsburgh. They have a bunch of stuff you can really attack on their defense. Like their secondary is banged up. They have major issues if they have a really banged up secondary because Justin Fields looked like an all-pro passer. That's a problem. So just looking at this matchup, it really favors the Seahawks team. the fact that they're coming off this type of brutal loss, you know, I'm not going to make a rush to take this one. Just know this is a position I'm already taking that, you know, just like the Jets, I can see the public liking Pittsburgh in this spot.”
SEA 31-17 PIT — Seahawks beat Steelers 31-17; Seattle won outright, covering the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So just early bet, I've already bet at Hard Rock here, plus six and a half, Give me the Panthers.”
ARI 27-22 CAR — Cardinals beat Panthers 27-22; Carolina lost by 5, covering the +6.5 spread (ESPN game recap).
“Even though I am on the Raiders plus three because our week two line that going to get like you just said the media hype”
LV 20-13 NE — Raiders beat Patriots 20-13; Las Vegas won outright, covering the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Browns were six and a half at one point. That's the number I've just been hammering for months, hammered at six, kept hitting at five and a half. I'm still betting at five.”
CIN 17-16 CLE — Bengals beat Browns 17-16; Cleveland lost by 1, covering the +5 spread (ESPN box score).
“This week our brass balls bet of the week Tennessee Titans plus eight against the Denver Broncos. And we're putting this in the freaking contest, brother.”
DEN 20-12 TEN — Broncos beat Titans 20-12; Tennessee lost by exactly 8, pushing the +8 spread (ESPN box score).
“no I'm going Ravens I love the Ravens and it's such a it's still a good number there's still plus one and a half out there but I'll take the hard rock I'll take the minus one”
BUF 41-40 BAL — Bills beat Ravens 41-40; Baltimore lost outright, busting the -1 spread (ESPN game recap).
“Two and a half in our contest plus two. We love it. if this number is at a pick, right, if this moves all the way back to a pick or Detroit flips to being a favorite, like we've seen these lines flipping now. I don't know if we love it as much, right? Because we're kind of playing the value. We're still on Detroit.”
GB 27-13 DET — Packers beat Lions 27-13; Detroit lost by 14, busting the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“The glaring weakness of this Dallas team was their run defense last year. And yes, they just traded for a D tackle and that's a big deal to help that. But that's the question. But the Eagles have their own questions, Chad. And that's why I think there is value where their number two corner is a big question mark. at someone they just traded for three weeks ago. That's how bad their second-quarter position has been. So, you know, to me, this is the type of game where we're really betting on matchups, and, you know, eight and a half, that's a lot of wiggle room. That's a lot of wiggle room for a backdoor, especially where we know the weakness of this Eagles team is probably going to be that secondary. So, you know, for me, it's a lot through banking on pickings and this new offense here. But, you know, Schottenheimer, he's been taking a lot of shit, but I think that this is actually a nice spot for him. And they're kind of a team that everyone's turned into a joke and they're piling on. And lucky for us is now up to eight and a half. So I don't know if we'll be in our contest, but I do like this. I'm just betting it at eight and a half.”
PHI 24-20 DAL — Eagles beat Cowboys 24-20; Dallas lost by 4, covering the +8.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“The talent level is still very high for Detroit And you know we see Like Green Bay again they might be better down the road but that Parsons thing I with you that threw a real wrench into the whole thing where it like he getting a shot in his back before this game So I join I'll take that two and a half with the signs.”
GB 27-13 DET — Packers beat Lions 27-13; Detroit lost by 14, busting the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'm on their plus 185 to not make the playoffs.”
Bengals finished 6-11 and were eliminated from playoff contention, cashing the not-to-make-playoffs bet at +185 (NFL.com standings). (CIN 6-11)
“Steelers plus 550 to win the division. 20 to 1 to win the conference. Super Bowl 40 to 1. win total eight and a half feels like we're getting a Mike Tomlin bounce at the eight and a half their defense is great if if everyone is fat and happy right and right now they're not TJ Watt who by the way is 31 years old has a new deal Cam Hayward a hold in only been sort of doing light practice work but has said he'll sit out games um got enra rogers obviously who has not been enra rogers for years their greatest asset is mike tomlin and his ability to coax wins and that's why i think the win total is even at eight and a half like otherwise if you judge this just on talent, I think it's probably seven and a half. I think like if I were betting this team, I'd probably wait until the second half of the year and see if I can get an adjusted under. Because the first half of the year, Jets, Browns, Patriots, Seahawks, Colts, like not terrible, but the second half of the year, they got Bills, Ravens twice, Lions, gets harder. What do you think of this? Yeah, just an interesting built team. Like you talk about the defense, I think it's 160 million that they've spent on their defense. And being an Eagles fan I think we at maybe 70 million So it like are they million better than the Eagles defense Probably not but that how it is when chad talked about you paying older guys big contracts and you know cam hayward i'd be ripping my fucking hair out if i worked in that front office who the fuck does this guy think he is signing a new deal last year now coming in a year later being all pissy saying i outplayed that contract the year before now it is weird right bizarre there must be something else because everything you've ever read about Cam is he's like the man. He's a football guy, team first. Yeah, just the man. But, you know, what is he, 36, 37? He gets it where he's like, that was probably as good as it gets last year. And if I can get one more payday, I might as well try it and try to be a piece of shit about it where it's everyone else on that team is just like, dude, we just paid TJ. We've signed all these guys. I mean, even their kickers have some drama about money. So it's like, what is going on with Pittsburgh? They try to be good and pay their guys, and now all these other players are thrown in their face, being like, I want more. I deserve more. It's tough. And again, this is another team that I wanted to be on them as a sneaky team in this division where it's like, everyone's talking Ravens, Bengals, Steelers. If Rodgers, again, as much as people left him for dead, he did look so much better that second half of the season. He looked confident, pushing the ball downfield, pushing off his back foot, where for the first eight, nine weeks, he did not do that. He was very timid. And, you know, we know the deal. This is not Brady going to the Bucs. Rodgers is not built that way. He doesn't play the same style. And, you know, this is a guy that relied a lot on his athleticism, and that's gone. So now we're sitting with a what, Chad? a bottom you know not top 20 but maybe top 25 quarterback like i'm trying to think where i even fit in rogers now and when i model this team out my model doesn't get the tomlin effect you just nailed it like my model has him at seven wins so i have him at a game and a half below it but a computer doesn't understand that tomlin it's he's a glitch there's nothing like him coaching wise like this guy just will right so what's the value of that though like to me I think they're giving him, you say they're at seven. I had it at seven and a half. And I think they're getting an extra game just because of Tomlin. Yeah. I mean, if you think Vrabel is worth two and a half, Tomlin should be worth three to you then, Chad, like as much as I want to give respect to Vrabel. Omlin's that dude. And I know he doesn't have the success, but it's like, dude, every year they throw out trash at the quarterback position and he makes it work because he just wills his team, special teams, defense, whatever it is. So we know the deal. Like this team, I think you just nailed it too, where it's like you want to take a position later on and take their under. That was the move last year. And I hate that I missed it where we all kind of started drinking the Kool-Aid on, you know, Russell Wilson because he came in, he was so dynamic, and they kept winning after Justin Fields got benched. But we kept saying to ourselves, the number doesn't back it up. When you dive into Russell Wilson, it's not. It's just luck. Like his 50-50 balls deep downfield, eventually it's going to go the other way. And I think they went, I don't know if it was five straight games. They just got worked at the end of the season. They couldn't cover either. So I look at this team that if they just have a stable position player in Aaron Rodgers, the quarterback position, and he can get the ball to DK, and they can make it work offensively, and this rookie of the draft can be their number one running back, great. but like I have so many questions about their offensive line. I have so many questions about their run block and all the offensive line. I just, I can't get it, get there and be excited. So I'll bet the over out of respect to Tomlin.”
Steelers finished the 2025 regular season 10-7 and clinched the AFC North, over the 8.5 win total (NFL.com standings). (PIT 10-7)
“i fucking love this browns Give me that over four and a half I love this team so much”
Browns finished the 2025 regular season 5-12, over the 4.5 win total (NFL.com standings). (CLE 5-12)
“for this Browns team. And, you know, it's the fact that it's four and a half. This is a team I'll bet the adjusted total. Like I'll adjust it, take the six and a half and plus 200. over.”
Browns finished the 2025 regular season 5-12, under the adjusted 6.5 win total at +200 (NFL.com standings). (CLE 5-12)
“Favorite bet from Simon, I think it's the Lions over 10.5.”
Detroit finished the 2025 regular season 9-8, under the over 10.5 win total (ESPN standings). (DET 9-8)
“give me lines plus 145 divisional odds.”
Chicago won the NFC North at 11-6; Detroit finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs (ESPN standings). (DET 9-8)
“And at eight and a half wins, I hate it. I wanted to fade this team so bad. I have to take the over because it's like if this kid's legit with a stacked defense and a stacked offense,”
Minnesota finished the 2025 regular season 9-8, clearing the over 8.5 win total (ESPN standings). (MIN 9-8)
“It all starts with Jalen Hurts. So, yeah, very, very confident in this divisional bet. This is probably my top three of my highest bet right now. It opened at 150. It actually dropped at some books to 140, 145. So people are betting Washington. They are betting Dallas, and they're moving this number. So I'm hoping it doesn't get above 150 again. I think this is the right price for me in the value-wise betting this Eagles team.”
Philadelphia won the NFC East at 11-6 (ESPN standings).
“Still, no one's drinking the coolant. Everyone just hates this Dallas team. So, yeah, even though I love the Eagles, I've hyped it up. This is clearly my favorite value-wise divisional bet, plus 600. It's amazing, amazing odds where I'm telling you people, they're not that much worse than the Eagles.”
Dallas finished 7-9-1 and Philadelphia (11-6) won the NFC East (ESPN standings). (DAL 7-9-1)
“And for a win total, again, my model has them 8.5. I think this is easily a 10-win team, 9-win team. So 7.5, it's one of my favorite totals. I've been betting it for three months now. It's lined up for this team.”
Dallas finished the 2025 regular season 7-9-1 (ESPN standings); by standard sportsbook convention a tie counts half a win, making their total exactly 7.5 wins, a push against the over 7.5 line. (DAL 7-9-1)
“find wins for you guys, but I look at it and I'm just like, if they got to three wins this year, that to me would be a good season for this Giants team That how brutal of a schedule is and that how bad their team is when I plug them into my model So I got them at four wins If you get over three tons of respect to this team But yeah, five and a half, I'll take that under every time if it's a game and a half.”
New York finished the 2025 regular season 4-13, under the 5.5 win total (ESPN standings). (NYG 4-13)
“If I'm going to bet this, like if I'm betting their win total, I'll take it. 11 and a half, no problem.”
Buffalo finished the 2025 regular season 12-5, clearing the over 11.5 win total (ESPN standings). (BUF 12-5)
“but i do matchups so like i've already thrown a couple matchups with them the rams them and the eagles and they're all they're all nice and juicy i think they're all like 50 or 45 to one you know i do the matchups i've already i actually did the bills and the niners at 45 to one like that i think we talked about this with the nfc west”
Super Bowl LX was Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots (Seahawks won 29-13 on Feb 8, 2026); the Bills and 49ers matchup never happened.
“it's just a really favorable season for this 49ers. And you already talked about it, too, the seesawing of Shanahan coach teams. Their down years, high ceiling years, really low years. It's just he really does well based off of the year before they got the fourth-place schedule. They really bounce back the following season. So even if they have a dip in talent from that Super Bowl team, I still see them being an 11-win team, 12-win team. So, yeah, give me that over 10.5 win total, Chad.”
San Francisco finished the 2025 regular season 12-5, clearing the over 10.5 win total (ESPN standings). (SF 12-5)
“Love the Rams, obviously, over 9.5.”
The Rams finished the 2025 regular season 12-5, clearing the over 9.5 win total (ESPN standings). (LAR 12-5)
“So, yeah, I'll join you on that under 8.5 on that Seattle team.”
Seattle finished the 2025 regular season 14-3, well past the under 8.5 win total (ESPN standings). (SEA 14-3)
“Now you're looking at Chiefs, though, and they're at minus 110 for this division, Chad.”
Denver (14-3) won the AFC West; Kansas City finished 6-11, so the Chiefs-to-win-AFC-West bet lost (ESPN/Wikipedia final standings).
“my favorite division bet from this division Raiders over six and a half full stop that's it Raiders over six and a half.”
Las Vegas finished 3-14, well under the 6.5-win total, so the over lost (ESPN final standings). (LV 3-14)
“and their Raiders defense could have major issues. But when you break down this offense with Gentry, with the fact that the offense line is not terrible. It obviously needs a little bit of improvement. But, you know, between Gentian Bowers and Chip Kelly, I love that. I love that they have an offensive guy that's going to notice how to get this best players of the ball. So Geno Smith, you know, I told you I was saving this for the season long. He a different totally different player in dome games He way above 500 is the spread it like above 700 hit rate against the spread in indoor dome games So it's like the type of scenario where he's always outperformed what bookmakers have projected of him in indoor games and the general public. So I already love that coming in where it's like, okay, he spent his whole career in outdoor stadiums. Now he's inside in a dome game. And, you know, sure, he could get some tough weather games. I know at the end of the season, you know, they are at Philly and they're at Houston. I think Houston's in the door, actually. But there's just a bunch of things that line up for them. They're always going to be in these preferable weather conditions for this type of offense they're going to be running here. So 15-1 division odds, Chad, I bet it. Like, this opened at 17-1. It's been bet down to 15-1. It's too big to me.”
Denver (14-3) won the AFC West; Las Vegas finished last at 3-14, so the Raiders-to-win-AFC-West bet lost (ESPN/Wikipedia final standings).
“But to me, it's just the bets that win total. If you believe in this team over 9.5, you got to take it. The only way they regress into that number is just because this division has improved so much. So, yeah, just looking at their schedule, the way it's all broken, out um i like how it sets up for them this upcoming season and the fact that they end chiefs chargers those are the last two games to the end of the season that's another way i like the break for this type of team so um yeah i just nine nine and a half win total that's the only real bet i'd give out on this show for for denver”
Denver finished 14-3, clearing the 9.5-win total, so the over cashed (ESPN final standings). (DEN 14-3)
“But if you were out there and you could find a better than 375 number on this division odds, I wouldn't hate that. I got it right there. I got them at plus 300. So plus 75, that's nice value to me.”
Denver won the AFC West at 14-3, so the division-futures bet won (ESPN/Wikipedia final standings).
“Yeah. My favorite bets would be Panthers over, six and a half.”
Carolina finished 8-9, clearing the 6.5-win total, so the over cashed (ESPN final standings). (CAR 8-9)
“yeah, this was a game I mean, this was the line that right away when I saw it open up, I jumped on the under and I I'm I'm like you. I was just like, am I the fish here? Is this is this too easy? Because it's I didn't get the five and a half hanging that number either.”
New Orleans finished 6-11, one win over the 5.5 line, so the under lost (ESPN final standings). (NO 6-11)
“My favorite bets would be Panthers over, six and a half. Saints under, five and a half, and then the Panthers division plus 400.”
Carolina (8-9) won the NFC South division on tiebreakers over Tampa Bay and Atlanta (also 8-9), so the division-futures bet won (Wikipedia: 2025 NFL season).
“to be a competent quarterback, something the Falcons have not had since Matt Ryan, he could change that offense because they have all the weapons. Like, Drake London, stud. Like, Robinson, stud. And Cal Pitts, we don't know because he's never had a quarterback. So I I I'm with you. I like I like the pieces there. It's I get why you're going with it, but, there's another team in this division I love more. So that's why I'm just not all in with you. I get where you're coming from. I did bet their win total. I have them at eight and a half. The win total is seven and a half. Obviously, a full game to the over. I'll take that over on the win just because of this division. Like, the way this division shakes out,”
Atlanta finished 8-9, clearing the 7.5-win total, so the over cashed (ESPN final standings). (ATL 8-9)
“Titans over five and a half and titans plus seven twenty. Yeah.”
Tennessee finished the 2025 season 3-14, well under the 5.5-win total, so the over lost (ESPN final standings). (TEN 3-14)
“I mean, it's it's gonna be titans over wins in their division odds. Titans over five and a half and titans plus seven twenty. Yeah.”
Jacksonville (13-4) won the AFC South; Tennessee finished 3-14 and last in the division, so the Titans-to-win-AFC-South bet lost (ESPN/Wikipedia final standings).
“I did make a small bet on them, their win total, because it did open at seven and a half. I bet it. The juice has been going up towards the over, because to me, they're they're all upside team.”
Jacksonville finished 13-4, clearing the 7.5-win total, so the over cashed (ESPN final standings). (JAX 13-4)
“You're getting minus one ten of the Chiefs in that division running to the window to bet that one.”
The Denver Broncos won the 2025 AFC West at 14-3; the Kansas City Chiefs finished third in the division at 6-11, so the Chiefs-to-win-AFC-West futures bet lost.
“I'm gonna take that four two bet with OKC with you, Matt, but I'm also gonna throw a four three bet on the Pacers at you know, last time I checked, it was crazy, guys. It might have been 10 to one.”
4-3 — The Thunder won the 2025 NBA Finals in seven games (4-3), clinching with a 103-91 Game 7 win on June 22, not 4-2, so the Thunder-to-win-4-2 bet lost.
“I'm gonna take that four two bet with OKC with you, Matt, but I'm also gonna throw a four three bet on the Pacers at you know, last time I checked, it was crazy, guys.”
3-4 — Oklahoma City won the 2025 NBA Finals 4-3 (Thunder, not Pacers, won in seven games, clinching 103-91 on June 22), so the Pacers-to-win-series-4-3 bet lost.
“I'm I'm on with the Cowboys. How am I not gonna go with Dak, 45 to one.”
Matthew Stafford won the 2025 NFL MVP award, so the Dak Prescott MVP futures lost.
“is Bo Nix. I bet this one, he was a 100 to one down to 80 to one. Now he's 75 to one.”
Matthew Stafford won the 2025 NFL MVP award, so the Bo Nix MVP futures lost.
“You can't get it in the action app yet, but I bet both, the cowboys plus seven and the cowboys on the money line at plus two forty.”
PHI 24, DAL 20 — Eagles beat Cowboys 24-20 in the Week 1 2025 opener; Dallas lost by 4, covering the +7 spread (ESPN box score).
“You can't get it in the action app yet, but I bet both, the cowboys plus seven and the cowboys on the money line at plus two forty.”
PHI 24, DAL 20 — Eagles beat Cowboys 24-20 in the Week 1 2025 opener; Dallas lost outright, so the Cowboys moneyline bet lost (ESPN box score).
“Luis, the guy from The Philippines, he's the right age. Like, he's 67, I think. So to me, that's, like, what they're look For. They want someone, like, right around that age. He's not the main guy, which I feel like you nailed it, Chad, where, like, men inherently are weird and jealous creatures. And the guy who is the man of the group, he might not be the man to a lot of people, but they act like it to his face. And they wait for these type of moments that in secrecy, they can take away some of his power. This guy who thinks he's the shit, it's like, no. You're not. And we're gonna give it to someone else who's more deserving. So, yeah. I just think that whole market, the fact that they're trying to spread in Asia, that just makes more sense to me to to vote in a guy who seems like a good guy, seems like he's well liked. And, like, even just reading about him before he came on today, it's like, this guy is well traveled. Like, he's done a lot in his years of service. So I didn't know I didn't realize his age. To me, that's the big factor here is the fact that he is 67, 68. Like, that's a big deal when they do these votes, Chad. So, yeah, I'm going with the 20 percenter guy. Not the greatest odds, but I'll take it.”
The 2025 papal conclave elected Cardinal Robert Prevost, who took the name Pope Leo XIV, on May 8, 2025; Luis Antonio Tagle was not elected, so the bet lost.
“I'm I'm gonna take a position on Boston in the series price, but, that's just following the smart money and the guys I respect.”
The New York Knicks defeated the Boston Celtics 4-2 in the 2025 NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals (games May 5-16, 2025), so the Celtics-to-win-the-series bet lost (ESPN Knicks 2025 playoff schedule).
“Cam Ward plus three eighty. Travis Hunter plus seven fifty. I have an immediate opinion. Yeah. I've only made two bets. I immediately you obviously know I love Cam, like Ward. I'm all about Tennessee. I I I grabbed that one immediately. I just think he should be the odds on favorite in my opinion.”
Carolina Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan was named the 2025 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, so Cam Ward's bet to win the award lost.
“The next one might shock a little bit Hampton. I grabbed him for the chargers. I just I love the I love the spot, the opportunity, and the fact that, you know, it's it's never the one they everyone thinks is coming right. There's always sometimes the outside guy, and, this feels like a nice spot for him and our run first type of offense that, you know, if he hits, this could be an absolute mega player for them going forward. Like, he just seems like it's a horrible guy. He he's gonna try to feed this running back. Even though I know they have other guys there, the fact they took him in the first round, that pick that they did, historically, guys taking the first round are usually the guy coming right out. So I I like that I like that value at 14 to one.”
Carolina Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan was named the 2025 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, so Omarion Hampton's bet to win the award lost.
“to me, Chad, just the value, how do you not take Walker? Like, this kid is an absolute stud on a defense that has zero pass rush ability in Atlanta. They're they're one of worst worst DN groups in all of all of the NFL. They're instantly getting a guy who could have been a top 10 pick, ton of raw talent. If he goes in there, he is incredible. Like, I I get why he's at number two. Like, him him being the second odds on favorite ahead of Travis Hunter, to me, that's that's priced right by the sports book. But I think there's still value there. I have a closer plus 500, plus 700, plus $7.50, a couple different books. Well, I'll take that by on Walker.”
Cleveland Browns LB Carson Schwesinger was named the 2025 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, so Jalon Walker's bet to win the award lost.
“Yeah. And I'll just start at the top by saying that as a fan, I think Patriots fans should know that all fan bases of football want them to have twenty, thirty, forty years of just hell. I want you guys to be terrible. I hope every quarterback you draft is horrible. I just want nothing but bad things for the Patriots. That being said, I love the hire in Vrabel. We both agree. We think Drake May has a ton of upside, a ton of talent. The reason we're betting on them to win this division is because of the year two jump.”
Patriots 14-3 — The New England Patriots won the AFC East with a 14-3 record in the 2025 NFL season (Wikipedia 2025 NFL season final standings).
“They've carried on the legacy of a a great drafting team in Baltimore. So, yeah, Mike Green, major questions. No doubt about the talent. It's all about the person. You know, to them, that that risk was worth it at that position. You know, I'm I'm with you, Chad, the fact that, you know, the them being minus one thirty five, they should be. Like, I have them grade up to minus one fifty in this division. So I have there is value right now on this number if you wanna take it. I've thrown a little bit on them at this number, and we'll talk about the other two in this division, I think, as a chance.”
Steelers 10-7, Ravens 8-9 — The Pittsburgh Steelers won the AFC North (10-7) in the 2025 NFL season; the Baltimore Ravens finished 8-9 and missed the division title (Wikipedia 2025 NFL season final standings).
“And you did see the Jets get better once he did get comfortable as the season went along. So, that's my view of a chat. I'm just I'm betting on Tomlin at an insane number. Like, I have them priced as the second best team in this division. They have them way down there. Plus 500 is a big drop down for this this Pittsburgh team. So I think if Rogers comes back, this immediately jumps to what? Plus 400, plus $3.50. So I'm just trying to get ahead of it. I like the number. I'm gonna I'm gonna back Pittsburgh here.”
Steelers 10-7 — The Pittsburgh Steelers won the AFC North with a 10-7 record in the 2025 NFL season (Wikipedia 2025 NFL season final standings).
“The the hope is obviously Dallas Clark. Like, that's the dream scenario is they get the guy they've been looking for for forever. But, yeah, the fact they went tight end and then went edge, went d back, like, we all like it. You know, this is a team that it all comes down to quarterback position. So Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson, I don't feel like putting any money on them at this point, of the year, but maybe that'll change come August. But we're sitting here right now, Chad. I don't have really confidence to put money on those either quarterback. And you do on the Tennessee titans at eight to one. Let's go. You don't you don't love it. Look at that face. So I'm just curious. I I don't actually have a strong opinion”
Jaguars 13-4, Titans 3-14 — The Jacksonville Jaguars won the AFC South (13-4) in the 2025 NFL season; the Tennessee Titans finished 3-14 (Wikipedia 2025 NFL season final standings).
“it's just like Cleveland. We'll throw a little bet on it just because of the crazy things that have happened. My big, big bet, like, that I'm gonna take a large position on, it's gonna be the Chiefs in this division. Minus one thirty, that's where if you wanna lock up your money now, that's where I would go with it.”
Broncos 14-3, Chiefs 6-11 — The Denver Broncos won the AFC West (14-3) in the 2025 NFL season; the Kansas City Chiefs finished 6-11 (Wikipedia 2025 NFL season final standings).
“[50:33] yeah, for value wise, I wouldn't bet them for this division. I thought it was interesting with the broncos. [50:39] Sean Payton was really vocal all weekend [50:42] defending Shadur Sanders, [50:44] talking about how he knew the family. You know, he had been in Dallas when Shadur was in Texas and, [50:51] has a relationship with them and was truly saying teams are gonna regret passing on Shadur Sanders. He didn't draft Shadore Sanders to be a backup to Bo Knicks at any point no matter how valuable he thought the placement might have be might have been in the draft. They did draft that cornerback from Texas, Baron, who, you know, is crazy fast. [51:11] To me, [51:12] they're more interesting as a play at plus three twenty five [51:16] than the chargers at plus 300 because we saw how good this defense was, and we saw BoNiks get better and better every single week. So now all of a sudden, they've got another weapon in that secondary that makes them that much more challenging [51:32] for a team like Kansas City, [51:34] which has the best quarterback in the NFL. [51:36] Yeah. You're gonna like it even more, Chad. It's plus three seventy five”
Broncos 14-3 — The Denver Broncos won the AFC West with a 14-3 record in the 2025 NFL season (Wikipedia 2025 NFL season final standings).
“How do you feel about the Las Vegas Raiders at 16 to one with Gino Smith and Ashton Genti and Pete Carroll as the head coach? I I'd be tempted to take their over season win total. Tempted. Because I do think there's enough talent with Gino Smith and Brock Bowers and Ashton Genti. They will just be so much better than last year offensively, and the market will keep them being depressed. Well, something really depressing is I got this at 20 to one, and then when they added Gino, it only moved to 16 to one. So it just shows the books just don't respect Gino at all.”
Broncos 14-3, Raiders 3-14 — The Denver Broncos won the AFC West (14-3) in the 2025 NFL season; the Las Vegas Raiders finished 3-14 (Wikipedia 2025 NFL season final standings).
“Genti to be a top five pick. Like, as long as he goes under that six and a half, you know, if he slips past the Raiders,”
Ashton Jeanty was drafted No. 6 overall by the Las Vegas Raiders in the 2025 NFL Draft, inside the under 6.5 line (Wikipedia 2025 NFL Draft round 1 results). (Ashton Jeanty drafted No. 6 overall (Las Vegas Raiders))
“So that tells you what what people think about this quarterback class. Well, Simon, you just said that you're heavily invested in Shadur, top 10. How did you get there? Just because of the numbers. It was, most books yesterday moved to 10 and a half at plus 300. I said, okay. I'll take a position.”
Shedeur Sanders was drafted No. 144 overall (Round 5) by the Cleveland Browns, well outside the under-10.5 line, per his ESPN player profile. (Shedeur Sanders drafted No. 144 overall, Round 5 (Cleveland Browns))
“the Rams, I've taken a position on them to take Sanders at 50 to one because I could see in some crazy world”
Shedeur Sanders was drafted by the Cleveland Browns at No. 144 overall, not the Los Angeles Rams, per his ESPN player profile. (Shedeur Sanders drafted by Cleveland Browns, No. 144 overall)
“And the the Genti, I bet it when you when you talked about he was 20 to one. It's down to 16 to one him to go to the Patriots.”
The Patriots took OT Will Campbell at No. 4; Ashton Jeanty was instead selected No. 6 overall by the Las Vegas Raiders, so the Patriots-draft-Jeanty prop lost (ESPN draft results). (Jeanty selected No. 6 overall by Las Vegas Raiders (Patriots took Will Campbell at No. 4))
“And, you know, a week ago, I gave out, I love the Rams, 28 to one.”
Rams lost the NFC Championship 31-27 to Seattle; the Seahawks then beat the Patriots 29-13 in Super Bowl LX (Feb 8, 2026). Rams-to-win-Super-Bowl futures bet lost.
“even if it like you just said, it's career. Right? It's not just we know that it's that part of the game. Right? It's not just for the one movie they've done. It's for their body of work. And like you said, she knows a lot of these people in this business better than, you know, unfortunately for Mickey, but I'm I'm gonna be betting here on the dog. So I already know where I'm going. I mean, I get it. Demi should be minus 300, but you know me, Chad. I like the dog. I like the upside, the value here”
Mikey Madison won Best Actress for Anora at the 97th Academy Awards on March 2, 2025, so the bet cashed (Wikipedia, 97th Academy Awards).
“one of my favorite bets is the Green Bay packers. You can get them 25 to one.”
The Packers (9-7-1) lost the Wild Card round 31-27 to the Bears on January 10, 2026, and Seattle beat New England 29-13 to win Super Bowl LX, so the Green Bay futures bet lost (ESPN).
“I did bet the niners 17 to one.”
The 49ers were eliminated 41-6 by Seattle in the Divisional round on January 17, 2026, and the Seahawks went on to win Super Bowl LX 29-13, so the San Francisco futures bet lost (ESPN).
“My favorite one is definitely both teams have successful fourth down. Convent like, so, basically, you need the eagles convert a fourth down, chiefs convert a fourth down. Both these teams, I feel like, are gonna go for higher risk. Like, they know what's at stake here, especially has heard all week about that Punt he did take the last time they played and not going for it on fourth down. No chance he doesn't go for it. It was minus one twenty when I told you this morning, Chad. It's already up to minus one twenty five.”
Both teams failed on their only fourth-down attempt in Super Bowl LIX (Eagles 0-for-1, Chiefs 0-for-1), so the both-teams-convert prop lost (ESPN game page). (4th-down conversions: Eagles 0-for-1, Chiefs 0-for-1)
“I've made this bet. This is another number that's moving. The Chiefs were the Eagles were Eagles win first half, Chiefs to win the game was plus three six fifty on bet three six five. It's down to plus five fifty now.”
PHI 40-22 KC — The Eagles led 24-0 at halftime and also won the game 40-22, so the Eagles-1H/Chiefs-game double lost (ESPN game page).
“same goes for that under. Like, I wanted to give out the under here on the show today. Still gonna do it. We've seen that 49 and a half just disappear. Like, I've been looking all across every book. It's gone totally. The highest you can get now is 49, which is still good value.”
PHI 40-22 KC — Super Bowl LIX finished 40-22 for a combined 62 points, busting the under-49 total (ESPN box score).
“So one of my favorite bets that correlates with this is eagles over one and a half rushing touchdowns. It's minus one thirty a lot of books. I'm seeing bet three six five is already up to minus one forty. I still love that price for that prop just because I think eagles you've seen it time and time again. Like, it can be second and eight, third and eight, and the eagles are running on that down. If they can just get it to two yards, and they usually think the defense will drop back. So I think there's a lot of opportunity playing that. I I agree with Chris that, you know, both these teams, they do get down there, they do play conservative. Like, they just don't wanna turn the ball over. That's just both been their MO because they just believe in both their defenses. So, I do love this play, and there's a lot of ways to correlate it with a lot of other props.”
The Eagles scored just one rushing touchdown in Super Bowl LIX (Jalen Hurts' 1-yard tush-push), short of the over-1.5 line (ESPN box score). (Eagles rushing touchdowns: 1 (Hurts) — line 1.5)
“Simon says, give me give me Chiefs minus one and a half.”
PHI 40-22 KC — Eagles beat Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX; Kansas City lost by 18, busting the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“you know, I get why they love the Bills. I get why they love Commanders. It's a coin flip type of game, but I do think their numbers have overrated both those sides. So, yeah, I'm looking forward to diving into these games even more, Chad, because it does seem like, you know, coming into it, I was a little nervous on our positions. You know, me and Chad don't love betting favorites, especially chalk favorites. Not chalk favorites in this spot. We are definitely taking shockingly the underdog kind of favorites in this spot of everyone's backing the dogs on the road, and we are actually the ones going off trail here and taking their home favorites, which is pretty shocking position to be in. Alright. I love it. That is a great tee up for what we're gonna talk about because it's Washington at Philadelphia. The number at bet three six five is minus six. The total is”
55-23 — Eagles beat Commanders 55-23 in the NFC Championship, margin +32 covers -6 (ESPN team schedule).
“I have moved to the over. Originally, I like the under in this matchup. I have flipped to the over, and just because the number has moved too much, and I I basically have this total of 48 and a half.”
55-23 — Combined score 78 (55+23) clears Over 47.5 in the NFC Championship (ESPN team schedule).
“Kansas City minus one and a half. The total's 47 and a half. This was Simon Says.”
32-29 — Chiefs beat Bills 32-29 in the AFC Championship, margin +3 covers -1.5 (ESPN team schedule).
“I believe Chiefs are Chiefs under is still 47 and a half. Yeah. Still like the value there. Still would take that under,”
32-29 — Combined score 61 (32+29) tops Under 47.5 in the AFC Championship; busts (ESPN team schedule).
“Simon says, give me the Chiefs minus one and a half.”
32-29 — Chiefs beat Bills 32-29 in the AFC Championship, margin +3 covers -1.5 (ESPN team schedule).
“They're they're giving you the one and a half hook right here. So, yeah, early bets. I'm with Chad. I'm I'm taking chiefs right now.”
32-29 — Chiefs beat Bills 32-29 in the AFC Championship, margin +3 covers -1.5 (ESPN team schedule).
“as an underdog period, as a favorite of less than three. Line when they last played in Buffalo was two and a half, by the way. Buffalo. What do you think of this total before we hop off? Did you look at it? I haven't even looked at it yet. 48 and a half. Feels high. Crazy high for Arrowhead. Feels really high for Arrowhead. And two running teams. In January, and two running teams. Let's let's be real. These two quarterbacks, they barely got to 52 Yeah. In this Buffalo Baltimore game. And Baltimore has had a much more explosive offense than Kansas City all year long. That's interesting. Yeah. That it definitely was, like, the first thing it jumped out. I mean, as much as I obviously jumped on the chiefs number, yeah, that that was just something that jumped out where it's like a a key number of 40 and a half. I'm just gonna take the under now, and then we'll see where the market goes.”
32-29 — Combined score 61 (32+29) tops Under 48.5 in the AFC Championship; busts (ESPN team schedule).
“And, you know, like I said, I I've I've taken the plus nine and a half, and I've thrown a little bet, just a little bet on the money line here.”
45-31 — Commanders beat Lions 45-31, margin +14 covers +9.5 (ESPN team schedule).
“Obviously, love the commanders. And, you know, like I said, I I've I've taken the plus nine and a half, and I've thrown a little bet, just a little bet on the money line here. It's just something I have to do where I you know, this this is the only real dog in this this matchup that I actually believe in that can pull off the upset.”
45-31 — Commanders won 45-31 outright at Detroit; moneyline cashes (ESPN team schedule).
“Yeah. And it's a over I'm betting knowing that it's gonna come down to a handful of fourth down plays. Like, these two coaches don't shy away from who they are, and we've seen it time and time again. Like, the lions games that do go under, it's when they do struggle on fourth down and golf turns a ball over a lot. And, you know, as much as you like to bash their defense in those games where golf struggles, this season, their defense has stepped up. So I do get where your hesitation comes from this over. I mean, it's an insanely high total. It's 55 and a half. So I totally get where you're coming from on that one. But,”
45-31 — Combined score 76 (45+31) clears Over 55.5 (ESPN team schedule).
“Love the Eagles, especially even at minus six, and love that under in that Bills Raven game.”
28-22 — Eagles beat Rams 28-22, margin +6 exactly matches the -6 line; pushes (ESPN team schedule).
“51 and a half is a key number. Like, if you go mathematically how often that lands on 51, you're still getting great value right now taking this under a 51 and a half.”
27-25 — Bills beat Ravens 27-25, combined 52 tops Under 51.5; busts (ESPN team schedule).
“Yes. Simon says, give me Washington plus nine and a half, Chad. When Simon says do it, we do what Simon says.”
WSH 45, DET 31 — Commanders beat Lions 45-31 on the road; Commanders +9.5 covers by outright win of 14 (ESPN).
“I actually like the over two in this game. It's 55. It's a huge over.”
WSH 45, DET 31 — Commanders beat Lions 45-31, combined 76; over 55.5 covers (ESPN).
“So, yeah, I'm with Chad here. I love this Eagles. I honestly would bet it up to seven. So even if you're like, my only book is only showing six and a half, I still would take that number.”
PHI 28, LAR 22 — Eagles beat Rams 28-22; Eagles -6 pushes exactly (ESPN).
“Really tough game. What do you think of the total? The total right now is, 51 and a half. Feels high to me. I know. Under. So I I don't wanna give it away, but once again, I'm on three unders and one over. So, yeah, last week, I couldn't find an over I liked. Even even though Chad almost scared me off my Rams back because the luck I did. Luck over. But Yeah. Once once we got so many unders, I was like, no. This everyone's just so tight right now in the playoffs, and teams are just not forcing the ball. And I feel like the refs have been calling a lot of penalties. I don't know about you, but it feels like the refs too have been more involved in a lot of call like, not not just holds, but a lot of stuff's making the offenses kind of stagnate. That's that feels like we've had that up with a bunch of games so far. So, yeah, this I I could I know it sounds stupid because I'm betting over a 55 and a half, but this one, fifty one and a half. I have this at 48 and a half. So I think there's a ton of value on the under here, especially with these two teams that, you know, it's gonna be cold as hell up in Buffalo, Chad.”
BUF 27, BAL 25 — Bills beat Ravens 27-25, combined 52; under 51.5 loses (ESPN).
“Yeah. So we're on the Bucks tonight, minus three.”
TB 20, WSH 23 — Commanders beat Buccaneers 23-20; Buccaneers -3 loses (they lost outright) (ESPN).
“we've been trioking all season how important two and a half is, yes, that's gonna hurt. But I have to trust the number here and think me me and you are getting a really good number. And, if you're like me and you're kind of feeling like a little bit of a coward with this one just because the pros are so heavy on Houston, tease it through zero. Like, if you're getting charges three and a half, there's no scenario no scenario I see Houston winning by more than three if they do win this. Like, that to me is by far the safest bet, but they like to be a risk taker, which me and Chad are. I I don't know how you don't take this charges number here.”
HOU 32, LAC 12 — Texans beat Chargers 32-12; Chargers -2.5 loses by 20 (ESPN).
“I I love the under as well. Like, this is, to me, another play on this game where it's like, that's way too high of a total. I got it at 41. It was 43 and a half. It's been bet down to 42 and a half. Still, that's a key number. You're still getting great value on this number. So this is there's a couple games I like to enter in. This is towards the top of my list. I really love this under.”
HOU 32, LAC 12 — Texans beat Chargers 32-12, combined 44; under 42.5 loses (ESPN).
“I'm betting their money line, but to me, the the smart safe bet here is taking the plus 10 if you can still get it on the Pittsburgh team.”
BAL 28, PIT 14 — Ravens beat Steelers 28-14; Steelers +10 loses by 4 (ESPN).
“But, yeah, for my biggest bet to this game, it's not even close. Like, I'm heavily invested in this Eagles team at three and a half, at four, at four and a half. Still been betting it even today. I bet it again when I got up this morning, and,”
PHI 22, GB 10 — Eagles beat Packers 22-10; Eagles -4.5 covers by 7.5 (ESPN).
“for my biggest bet to this game, it's not even close. Like, I'm heavily invested in this Eagles team at three and a half, at four, at four and a half.”
PHI 22, GB 10 — Eagles beat Packers 22-10; Eagles -4.5 covers by 7.5 (ESPN).
“let me fade this overhyped commanders team and take this Bucks team at minus three.”
TB 20, WSH 23 — Commanders beat Buccaneers 23-20; Buccaneers -3 loses (they lost outright) (ESPN).
“[1:03:24] I don't mind the under here at all either. 50 and a half especially feels extraordinarily [1:03:29] high. And we've seen it though that, like, even the Cowboys, you can say, is not that good of a run team. [1:03:35] They were pretty much running it down, this commander's team through. And, you know, Bijan Robinson, just a week before that, having his way. Saquon having his way. So, you know, I know Bucky Irving is not putting the same sentence as those other guys for [1:03:49] I get it. You know, he's the kinda new to the league, and he's he's not that type of talent. But if you really break down the numbers and look at what Bucky's done this season, he is a top 10 running back in my opinion. Like, this guy is a workhorse, and that to me is going to be the game plan for for the Bucks. Like, for everything I read from their beat writers and, you know, I wish I had sourced on the inside. I unfortunately don't. I don't really have any connections down there in Tampa, but it feels like the way guys are talking about it. It's, like, going to be a heavy bucket Irving game, and they're gonna lean on that run just keeping the ball at Jay and Daniel's hands. So, and what you just talked about, they need to protect Baker from himself sometimes. Right? Like, Baker can't help himself with turnover. You just can't have those stupid turnovers in the playoffs. Like, that's gonna cost you. So that's another reason why I like this under so much is it just feels like it's going to be a run heavy game from this Bucks team.”
TB 20, WSH 23 — Commanders beat Buccaneers 23-20, combined 43; under 50.5 covers (ESPN).
“to me, this is really about trusting the numbers and the trends that everything points to this Rams team, and you're still getting great value as them as a dog. Like, I have them as over a one point favorite. We're still getting plus one and a half at a couple books out there. And I know it doesn't sound like a big deal, but every point matters in the playoffs. It is a big deal. So, yeah, to me, plus one and a half, I still love the value on this Rams team.”
LAR 27, MIN 9 — Rams beat Vikings 27-9; Rams +1.5 covers by 19.5 (ESPN).
“Total is 48. I think at the end of the day, we don't like to bet against Matthew Stafford. We're getting him at a dog at home as a dog at home. Yeah. And it's another game that I've I've taken the under on.”
LAR 27, MIN 9 — Rams beat Vikings 27-9, combined 36; under 48 covers (ESPN).
“I went I went through the zero, took the charge off the plus three and a half, and, yeah, Bill's down to two and a half. It just feels like that's a gift. So, yeah, those those are definitely my biggest bets right now.”
HOU 32, LAC 12; LAR 27, MIN 9; BUF 31, DEN 7 — Chargers were blown out 32-12 by the Texans, busting the teased Chargers +3.5 leg and sinking the three-team teaser even though the Rams (+7.5, won 27-9) and Bills (-2.5, won 31-7) legs cashed (ESPN).
“yeah, Simon says, give me Pittsburgh plus 10 shots.”
BAL 28, PIT 14 — Ravens beat Steelers 28-14; Steelers +10 loses by 4 (ESPN).
“got got more Pittsburgh down at Pittsburgh plus 10, got more Philly down at minus four.”
PHI 22, GB 10 — Eagles beat Packers 22-10; Eagles -4 covers by 8 (ESPN).
“That's it. Alright. Wildcard lines. The one NFC line that we have so far, Green Bay plus three and a half at Philly, your first instinct. I mean, they're basically begging you to take Green Bay, and I'm gonna throw quick quick penny on the Eagles right there. It was three.”
GB 10, PHI 22 — Eagles beat Packers 22-10, a 12-point margin that covers -3 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Maybe it'll be Chad's on the Bills, but opening line here minus seven and a half. I gotta take that with this Bills team.”
DEN 7, BUF 31 — Bills beat Broncos 31-7, a 24-point margin that covers -7.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Take that best team. Like, I I'm with them. Like, it's very caveman, very simple. Don't overthink this one. Just take the points with this”
DEN 38, KC 0 — Chiefs lost to Broncos 0-38; Kansas City +10.5 does not cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“One more one more game for Dougie. Give him give me plus four and a half on this Jaguars team.”
IND 26, JAX 23 — Jaguars lost to Colts 23-26 (OT) by 3, within Jacksonville +4.5; covers (ESPN scoreboard).
“you know, four and a half, four, way too many points for us to pass on. Like, I I love this number. I love this Jags team”
IND 26, JAX 23 — Jaguars lost to Colts 23-26 (OT) by 3, within Jacksonville +4.5; covers (ESPN scoreboard).
“Giants just popped back up to plus three at a couple pub really public books. So some smart money now has come in on the Eagles here this morning, which is pretty surprising, but nothing changed in my position.”
PHI 20, NYG 13 — Giants lost to Eagles 13-20; New York +3 does not cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“I just I just think it lines up perfectly as Minnesota team. So, yeah, I'm clearly, I'm pocket committed. I I love them at plus three Minnesota.”
DET 31, MIN 9 — Vikings lost to Lions 9-31; Minnesota +3 does not cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“yeah, it's no. They it's they moved it to one and a half now. I can't help it. I gotta bet, Sensei.”
PIT 17, CIN 19 — Bengals beat Steelers 19-17, a 2-point margin that covers -1.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“we were on the air midway through the show, Tennessee was a four and a half point favorite. Now it's back down to Tennessee minus one. No upside for the Texans. Locked in at the four, like I said. Why is this line, Simon, moving so much? Simon says, give me Tennessee plus one. When Simon says do it, we do what Simon says. Minus one. At Bethany's survive it is? Yeah. Okay. Yeah. I don't get it. I do not get it at all. It's all public money too. Like, I'm looking the action app, and it's all public just hammering this Texan side. And we kinda talk about it like these NFL teams. You saw it a lot, especially in that Giants locker room after that game. They do not care about draft position. Like, these guys just wanna win. And a lot of them are playing for their jobs and playing for their futures. And, say what you want about the Tennessee being terrible and them losing and not covering all these games in a row. They at least been trying and being competitive in these games. Like, a lot of these games are close games. Like, it's not them just getting rolled by thirty, forty points. Right? It's a lot of times, I'm coming back, losing by a touchdown, or just failing that last that last drive. And me and you have talked a ton about this Texas team about how bad they are, mainly because of injuries. Right? And they were a top heavy team coming of the year. They were stars in the scrub type of team. Right? And now in this game, all the stars will be out. All the reasons they've been even be able to keep this thing together is going to be out for this Houston team. On the flip side, I just could see Tennessee messing up their draft position and wanting to win this game, and, they're desperate for a win. I mean, they've gone months without a win. Like, that that just wears on you. And we've already talked about how it's an anomaly them against the spread. Right? Two and fourteen against the spread this season. Worst against the spread ever. Ever. And, again, I know people don't wanna give us kudos, but, like, we've avoided them this whole time. We literally have avoided them this whole time. But I We deserve credit for our for our discipline. Honestly, though, it's been hard because every week, the books are giving us a free two to three points. No joke. Like, they're just begging for Tennessee money, and every week, it just was not coming through. And I know some pros have just been chasing this for well over a month on this Tennessee team. So, yeah, I I I just think Tennessee is in a good spot here. Playing against a a bunch of backups that, you know, I don't think Houston's gonna care at all about this game. On the flip side, I think Tennessee is gonna care about getting this last win. Callahan, just before the end of the season, try to feel good about themselves. And we see it all the time. Teams like this that have an horrible year, nothing to play for, they kinda steal one of these games end of the year. So, yeah, it makes me obviously, in a normal year, it'd feel good knowing the public's heavy on a road favorite in Houston, but that has not been the case this season. But I still I still like Tennessee at this number, and I do think it goes up by kickoff. Very interesting. Finally pulling the trigger on the Tennessee titans. I gotta tell you, I didn't see that one coming.”
TEN 14, HOU 23 — Titans lost to Texans 14-23; Tennessee -1 does not cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“Call me a sucker for this Jags team. I just love the way they've been playing down the stretcher. I'll take Mac Jones, Brian Thompson junior at plus four and a half.”
IND 26, JAX 23 — Jaguars lost to Colts 23-26 (OT) by 3, within Jacksonville +4.5; covers (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm betting panthers at plus eight and a half. I've already bet their money line.”
ATL 38, CAR 44 — Panthers beat Falcons 44-38 (OT), covering Carolina +8.5 with an outright win (ESPN scoreboard).
“I've already bet their money line. I love this as an upset for this this Carolina team.”
ATL 38, CAR 44 — Panthers beat Falcons 44-38 (OT); Carolina moneyline wins (ESPN scoreboard).
“But I'm not backing the bears here. No. Alright. I'm I'm all in on them. I love them. I I bet they're money line as well for this one.”
GB 22, CHI 24 — Bears beat Packers 24-22; Chicago moneyline wins (ESPN scoreboard).
“And to me, that's why this game feels like it'll be close. And I know Denver doesn't need this one. Right? It's they need to win one of the next two. Obviously, they wanna win this one, but, you know, that that number to me at three and a half is just so tempting. Can't really pass on it. So it's another game where it's, like, hard to like dogs this week, but at this number against the Cincinnati defense, it feels like a good opportunity. And, yeah, matchup wise, like, really going through all the numbers and breaking it down, how this defensive line of Denver can match up against the offensive line of the Bengals, it's really gonna work out for them just because Joe Burrow, honestly, is one of the quarterbacks that does hold on to the ball. Like, he he does take sacks that the guys don't because he likes to push it downfield. It's too Joe is. I think we're kinda starting to figure that where, you know, for a while there, we'd always blame his offensive line as the years have gone along here. It's like, well, a lot of these are self inflicted wounds by Joe. Like, he's just not taking the first open read. He wants to kinda test the limits and push it downfield. So, it's all about the number here. Like you just said, it's shifting down to three to a lot of books. So a three and a half, especially contest wise, I would play it. But if it was two and a half, wouldn't even think about playing it.”
CIN 30, DEN 24 — Bengals beat Broncos 30-24 in overtime; Denver's -6 margin fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm with you. Like, I love this Panthers team. My only fear is just that I'm so in love with it. Like, I this is another game where I took their money line again.”
TB 48, CAR 14 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 48-14; Carolina's moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“I would say Detroit, I went pretty heavy on the minus three. Even at minus three and a half, I've honestly betted up. I've I'm feeling very chalky with that one.”
DET 40, SF 34 — Lions beat 49ers 40-34; Detroit's +6 margin covers -3 (ESPN box score).
“my biggest bet by far of these three games is Chiefs minus two and a half, and it's not close.”
KC 29, PIT 10 — Chiefs beat Steelers 29-10; Kansas City's +19 margin covers -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm gonna go chalk side, the heavy public side. I'll take Seattle minus three and a half.”
SEA 6, CHI 3 — Seahawks beat Bears 6-3; Seattle's +3 margin fails to cover -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I already bet them first half as well, Seattle minus two and a half.”
SEA 6, CHI 3 (1H) — Seahawks led Bears 6-3 at halftime with no second-half scoring; Seattle's +3 first-half margin covers -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I've just bet the Bengals number at minus three just because we you just talked about the movement.”
CIN 30, DEN 24 — Bengals beat Broncos 30-24 in overtime; Cincinnati's +6 margin covers -3 (ESPN box score).
“I don't know what to do with this number, but it's six and a half. I'm betting Cleveland. I love Cleveland here, and it really is all about to do with Miami and what we talk all the time, Chad. Just they're a different team when they leave Miami. Like, two at home.”
MIA 20, CLE 3 — Dolphins beat Browns 20-3; Cleveland's -17 margin fails to cover +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“we're dying to bet on Mahomes at under three. I'm take I that's what was about to say, though. I took the two.”
KC 29, PIT 10 — Chiefs beat Steelers 29-10; Kansas City's +19 margin covers -2 (ESPN box score).
“It it is. Simon Says Washington three and a half.”
PHI 33, WSH 36 — Commanders beat Eagles 36-33 on Dec 22, 2024; Washington +3.5 wins outright, covers (ESPN box score).
“they had good reason to. This Houston team is really questionable right now. So, yeah, that one jumps out to me two and a half. Pittsburgh, six and a half right now against this Ravens team on Saturday. I you know what? I saw that. Are we suckers again? I I I, like, I didn't wanna say anything. It's cross it's it's above six, though. We have to take it. I didn't wanna anything.”
PIT 17, BAL 34 — Ravens beat Steelers 34-17 on Dec 21, 2024; Pittsburgh +6.5 loses by 17, busts the cover (ESPN box score).
“Yeah. This last one, I'm I'm worried I'm overthinking it, but it it just feels like it's too easy. Once again, a line that feels too big. Commanders are plus four against this Eagles team where this number feels like it should be plus three. We're getting a nice bump here because Washington had a little meltdown. Right? They're up 17 nothing. Yeah. Saints come all the way back. The flip side, this Eagles team who was doubted today just rolled, you know, public and professional players alike that bet the Pittsburgh Team. I wanna bet this, but I again, I feel like another number that can I be patient here? Won't this go up rather than come down? Well, it's already down to three and a half. I'm seeing three and a they Chad just told you then, so I guess I'll grab the four now while I can. Yeah. If you can get a four, you should definitely get it. I see one four out there. The rest I'm seeing are”
PHI 33, WSH 36 — Commanders beat Eagles 36-33 on Dec 22, 2024; Washington +4 wins outright, covers (ESPN box score).
“Because of that Panthers game, you're getting a five, five and a half lower number on this Eagles game. And, I just I have a hard time making the number that big. Like, we already talked about, Chad. I just think Pittsburgh is underrated here. The number feels too big. I'll be a sucker with you. I'll buy this Pittsburgh one and just I'll ride the Tomlin spot, but it's like,”
PIT 13, PHI 27 — Eagles beat Steelers 27-13 on Dec 15, 2024; Pittsburgh +5.5 loses by 14, busts the cover (ESPN box score).
“yeah, I I I fully support you in this number. I bet it. I like the colds here, like we talked about. The only real fear here is the the difference between this team that playing at home and on the road. They've just been a different team. They're they're obviously way better at home, this Colts team. And even Anthony Richardson in his young career, I mean, you can go back and look. He is a covering machine at home. He struggled a little bit on the road. Again, maybe that's to do with outdoors, all this other stuff that we don't know because he's only played, you know, 11 games up to this point or 12 games in the NFL. So that stuff is tough to say, but another game just like that one we talked about with the Jaguars, it feels like pros versus shows, another week of the the professionals are all hammering one side, and the the public is very happy thinking they're getting a good number on the other side. So, yeah, Chad, I'm I'm with you and back in the books here and taking this three and a half four with this colts team. Also, couple really interesting injury”
IND 13, DEN 31 — Broncos beat Colts 31-13 on Dec 15, 2024; Indianapolis +3.5 loses by 18, busts the cover (ESPN box score).
“last one is just Detroit at two. If you can get the two,”
BUF 48, DET 42 — Bills beat Lions 48-42 on Dec 15, 2024; Detroit -2 loses outright, busts the cover (ESPN box score).
“Green Bay, I just can't stop betting at two minus two and a half, and I I know it's”
GB 30, SEA 13 — Packers beat Seahawks 30-13 on Dec 15, 2024; Green Bay -2.5 wins outright and covers (ESPN box score).
“touchdown return. Yeah. Right. Right. Right? For interception. Right? So I get it. I'd probably lean packers minus two and a half for the contest versus bucks plus two and a half, but, you know, we can do that. Bigger bet. So it's like, I'll probably make us put a green band just because I'm so heavily invested. It's like, make the show be invested in it too. I don't have any I I've bet them both. I've bet more on the packers at minus two and a half than I've bet on the box at plus three.”
TB 40, LAC 17 — Buccaneers beat Chargers 40-17 on Dec 15, 2024; Tampa Bay +3 wins outright and covers (ESPN box score).
“Simon says go grab Green Bay minus two and a half right now.”
GB 30, SEA 13 — Packers beat Seahawks 30-13 on Dec 15, 2024; Green Bay -2.5 wins outright and covers (ESPN box score).
“Get the five if you like the Steelers. Look. The Eagles have made some noise the past twenty four hours. Brendan Graham, I don't know if you saw this on WIP I did. Philadelphia, but he came out and basically said, Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown aren't friends anymore. Jalen Hurts who is AJ Brown's kid's godfather, there there was a lot of noise after that game. Right? Jalen Hurts threw for a 108 yards. He has the fewest passing attempts of any quarterback, starting quarterback in the league this year. He asked AJ Brown point blank what's going on with the offense. He just said one word after the game, passing, throwing his helmet on the field or on the sideline. DeVonte Smith saying we're not on the same page. Something going on with his offense. Like, as good as Saquon is, Jalen's struggling, and that's been a theme for two years now. Yeah. I was I I forgot to bring it up because I had an amazing stat for someone like you that's just been hating on Hertz. You'd have him in your top 10 coming to the season. You've been bad mouthing this season. Before this weekend, him and Josh Allen had literally the same exact stats for total touchdowns, for turnovers, for yards rushing and passing combined. Their stats were literally the exact same. So on one hand, Josh Josh Allen's the greatest QB ever having the greatest season ever, and here's Chad just shitting on Hertz who's having literally the mirror season until this past weekend. Obviously, Josh has pulled ahead now with his Is that true? Yeah. It was like, because because Hertz has the cheat code of the 12 rushing touchdowns for the tush push, and now he's even more because they just did it again this past week. But Josh Allen's doing the touch push. Didn't hear much people shooting on him about it, getting touch pushed into the end zone. I think, you know, AJ is a diva. Like, I knew AJ was a diva coming in. The Brandon Grant thing is spooky because it's like he he didn't say they weren't friends. He's basically saying, Jalen Hurts is, like, trying to make things work, and AJ is basically saying fuck off. Like, I don't even wanna talk to you right now, which is, like, terrifying. Like, I I agree with you. That's that's that's not what I wanna hear, but it's like, dude, your your team is the two seed. You haven't lost in seven, eight weeks. Like, it just sucks that people have those type of personalities where it's never good enough. You know? Like, keep it in house. Just keep your mouth shut. You didn't need to make that sound bite to get everyone going crazy like this, but, hopefully, that worked through it. But, like, you know, AJ is in a weird spot where I get he want I guess, he wants the ball, but the Eagles are are run first team. They have the best weapon of football right now in Saquon. So it's like, if if Hurts goes out there and they throw for 300 yards and four touchdowns against the Carolina Panthers and we lose, is that a good thing? Is because AJ is now happy because he got one fifty and two touchdowns and a loss. It's like I I feel bad for he doesn't really understand it. They're like, he because, I don't know if it was last year before. He had this crazy year with all these touchdowns and a ton of receiving. Yeah. And that was really fun, but it's like, we saw that last year that that didn't work once it got cold out. And and like you just said, Jalen Hurts, I'm with you. I agree with you. He is not consistent. That that is a weakness of his where, using a couple of the quarterbacks in this league that they need to see a couple of three, four catches in a row to find a rhythm. If they don't get those three, four in a row, he'll put up what he does did this past week, whatever it was, 11 of 19. Like, he'll just never get in a rhythm really passing wise. And, the new personality of the Seagulls team of just being a run for his team has not helped that. So I do agree with that. But, in this matchup, I mean, this number, like, we Oh, we talked about it. It's so telling that who who's betting the Eagles? I don't get it. That's why I'll never understand this number. Or shouldn't we all bet Pittsburgh and then just let this fall where in May? It's like Pittsburgh earned that respect. And, you know, we talked on Sunday. I I was a little worried about the summer because I it's like, what's going on with Pickens? Now we've had Tomlin soundbite saying he's probably not gonna play. He said it's really doubtful that Pickens plays in this game. You know, that that that's a big deal. Like, that is a big deal against an Eagles defense that is legit. Like, obviously, their Kryptonite is other white guys that Adam Phelan tore them up last week. But, overall, this has been a really stingy defense. And even against that Ravens team, we saw they they can make stops when they need to in big time spots. So, yeah, it's it's a game where I know what to do, Chad. I I really wanna take Pittsburgh. I just am worried where I'm missing something here that maybe I'm overvaluing Pittsburgh, this is the right time to jump off. But why is this number not three, three and a half? That's my biggest issue to me. It's like, even my model thinks this is too overvalued. So even the human element, take it out of it. It's like, okay. We're supposed to take Pittsburgh here. Mike Tomlin, as a road dog of between four and six points, nearly 65% against the spread. He's basically north of 60% in every category breakdown as a dog. Like, I know we're always looking to thread the needle on these things and pick the spot where we think it's gonna work. We did it with the Chiefs. You know this line's fishy, though. It's totally fishy because so fishy. It it's it's completely fishy. I worry that that the Eagles will react to this week's drama and come out better than ever. Oh, yeah. Because that was a loss. That Carolina game, that that that feels like a loss in that locker room. Right? Yes. Yeah. 100%. They didn't they are not walking out of that game thinking, yeah. We've won nine in a row. We're still the two seed, and we've got the best running back in football. They're not thinking that, but they continue to have a dominant defensive line, and their offensive line is really good. It's why Saquon is second to Josh Allen in the MVP odds. And, look, you could you could if not for the fact Josh Allen is a quarterback and doing it in dramatic fashion in some really high profile moments, Saquon, the odds should be much closer. Josh Allen is, like, minus 400. Saquon is plus 400. It should be more like minus 100, you know, plus 200. Because Saquon is leading a team that is number two in the conference that has a better record, and he's on track to break one of the most sacred records in all of football, which is the total rushing yardage record in a season. Josh Allen's team has three losses. Right? And he's on track to do miraculous things, but how many records is he gonna break? He's just gonna be a spectacular quarterback who's leading a team that has a really good record. I mean, I don't know. I have a Saquon bias. I love the guy. I think he's so fun to watch. Love his attitude. I love his athleticism. I think what he's doing this year is spectacular. I love the fact that he's sticking to the Giants, but I feel like we gotta bet on Tomlin. Yeah. There's just no reason not to. I know. I hate it because it just feels way too easy. But, again He was gonna easy has been winning. Like, last week, the Chargers felt really way too easy, and that's what was spooking me on that number as well. And every idiot in the world's like, well, this is the spot you take them. It's it's it's over a field goal. You take the charges over a field against the Chiefs. The same thing with Pittsburgh. It's like, everyone I'm talking to, even the book yesterday, this fucking guy at the window goes, Pittsburgh, easiest bet of the week. There are no way they Tom, no way he loses by three. And it's like, fuck, man. I'm making that same bet. Goddamn it.”
PIT 13, PHI 27 — Eagles beat Steelers 27-13 on Dec 15, 2024; Pittsburgh +5 loses by 14, busts the cover (ESPN box score).
“this could easily keep going up. So if you're like me and Chad, you like Minnesota, grab the five and a half while you still can if you haven't already.”
MIN 42, ATL 21 — Vikings beat Falcons 42-21; Vikings -5.5 covers by 21 points (ESPN box score).
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Parlay busts: Bears ML lost as 49ers won 38-13 (ESPN box score); Seahawks ML won as Seattle beat Arizona 30-18 on the road (ESPN box score), but the parlay needs both legs to win.
“two, three weeks ago, me and you were automatically been the lines here. We do not trust Jordan Love at all. Even if you played well those last couple weeks, there's still little things he does where it's just it's not the Jordan Love from last year. Right? There's just something off about Jordan Love this year. But at this number against a banged up Lions team, how do we not stay in this? Like, the the backdoor is always, to me, always gonna be open. And the Lions are now giving me the spot where it feels like the Bengals are in, right, that they're gonna need to put up 30 points against these really good offenses if they're gonna win these games. So, yeah, three and a half. It does feel a little too easy. That's the scary part. It's like, why is this not a three? But we'll take we'll take the value. I'll take the three and a half right now while it's still available. Yeah. The only thing that's given me any pause at all is that”
DET 34, GB 31 — Lions beat Packers 34-31; Packers +3.5 covers, losing by only 3 (ESPN box score).
“even we bet it it moved to six and a half. At five and a half, I felt like it was right. At six and a half, was like, okay. The value there shifted to Cleveland at that point. Yeah. Same thing feels here. Right? Like, this should be four and a half, five. You just you mean, you're you're saying that Beth, you're subscribed. It's six and a half, but most books is down to six. So, yeah, to me, I'd grab the six and a half now. I can only see this coming down just because it's it's just too high of a number for this type of divisional matchup in December. Like you said, Tomlin, in these games, for some reason, either lose his outright or just play it really close and win by three at the end. Doesn't matter when it was Ben Roethlisberger or Mason Rudolph. Like, these are just ugly games for Pittsburgh in home divisional games. So, I'm with you, Chad. I like the six and a half.”
PIT 27, CLE 14 — Steelers beat Browns 27-14; Browns +6.5 busts by 13 points (ESPN box score).
“I I was confused by the order in the schedule and the spread, but I really meant Minnesota minus five,”
MIN 42, ATL 21 — Vikings beat Falcons 42-21; Vikings -5 covers by 21 points (ESPN box score).
“That's the mantra. Get out early. Buffalo at the Los Angeles Rams. Rams are four and a half. Look. This was a decent move off of the Sunday night Superman performance by Josh Allen. It opened at three and a half. You wanted to bet the Bills at three and a half. Now it's at four and a half. You made a great point on Sunday night. The Bills don't tend to lose these kinds of games. I interpreted that as them being a favorite in a spot where you normally like to take a dog, so I looked it up. Allen is a favorite of more than 55% against spread in his career. On the road, 57% against spread. We talked just the matchup too. Right? We were saying this Bills team, their identity running the ball down team's throats, you saw it there on, you know, Sunday night. Like, it's incredible how Joe Brady's transformed that offense where I feel like such an idiot. Even though I did take their over coming the season, it was just like, how did we doubt that offense with Josh Allen? Josh Allen. Josh Allen. Alert here for Josh Allen. Looking for Alley. He's got it. He's a runner. No. He's a player. He's a football player through and through with his legs, and there we go. Josh Allen. Huge run. An excuse me, touchdown. How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone? Goodness. There's no fear. No way. Became louder and louder. He's so good. He's so unique. I mean, obviously, he should be the MVP favorite right now. I mean, this is it's lined up perfectly too. Their their division's so bad. If they can just survive these next five weeks and get that one seed, get Kansas City to come to Buffalo, it's it's just so lined up for them this year. Like, how do they not make the Super Bowl this year, this Bills team? I just, you know, I love their defense where they're playing, but offensively, I'll I'll never have fear when they're down. Like, they're just gonna be a team that's never dead because they're just so in sync right now offensively, and Josh Allen is at such a high level. So, yeah, wanted to be on the Rams. I joked I've lost a small house betting the Rams this season, and I'm not gonna be sucked. And even though this is another spot that stinks, like, this number stinks, I don't know how the Rams are gonna cover it. The books, they they they believe the Rams are gonna somehow cover this number, but I'm just totally off with this where it's like, I think it's all because of Stafford that this number is what it is. If it's if it's not all the respect we give to him, this number is easily six, six and a half. Stafford has not been the staffer of the like, the past. He's been terribly inconsistent this season and, like, he goes on little runs, will play great for a quarter, maybe get a couple touchdowns, and then he'll just disappear for two or three quarters. He's just been so inconsistent this year. And this Bills team, I get it. They people expect them to have a letdown game here, and I I totally view that. That that's why I wanted to be on the ramps here. It's like, how do you not have a letdown game? But, with them chasing that one c, Chad, and just how locked in Josh Allen is, I just I can't see it. So there's a couple fours out there if you still wanna grab it. I would. I just I think this Bills team is so good on the flip side. This Rams team, we've seen it. They're just not that team we thought they were gonna be coming this season. Doesn't matter that they have, you know, two of the best receivers in football and a really good running game. They just aren't consistent offensively and defensively. They can't stop the run. We even saw it last week. Like, Taysom Hill going out was a gift for them because he was running all over them, him and Kumar. So, yeah, totally off this Rams team. I I would buy on this bill spot.”
LAR 44, BUF 42 — Rams beat Bills 44-42; Bills -4 busts, losing outright by 2 (ESPN box score).
“you know, that just shows how much healthier this Chargers team is now. On the flip side of this Chiefs team, I think public perception is just yeah. They're gonna win, but they're not gonna cover. So that's the fear, Chad, is like, me and you have just been fading this Chiefs team basically every week, and it's been really good to us. I don't mind going at it again because it's four and a half. I'm gonna grab that now. But if it's three and a half come contest time, I don't know if we force that one in because it's like it feels like this should be the number to me feels right is four here. Four, four and a half. I'll take the value of four and a half right now. I'll bet $3.06 5. How are the chiefs tackles going to”
KC 19, LAC 17 — Chiefs beat Chargers 19-17; Chargers +4.5 covers by margin of -2 (ESPN box score).
“Simon says, give me Green Bay minus three, Chad.”
GB 30, MIA 17 — Packers beat Dolphins 30-17 on Thanksgiving, a 13-point margin that covers -3 (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“give me give me Denver minus five and a half. I love Denver here. Love it.”
DEN 41, CLE 32 — Broncos beat Browns 41-32 on Monday Night Football, a 9-point margin that covers -5.5 (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“Let's talk about a couple of Thanksgiving games quickly. Yeah. Lions bears in Detroit. Lions are 10 and a half point favorites right now. How do we not take them?”
DET 23, CHI 20 — Lions beat Bears 23-20 on Thanksgiving; Detroit won by only 3, busting the -10.5 spread (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“So, yeah, Chad, I'm right there with you. If you can grab the two right now, I'd grab it.”
GB 38, SF 10 — Packers beat 49ers 38-10; San Francisco lost outright by 28, busting the +2 spread (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“the rams are three point dogs that's been bouncing around. I I love the eagles here, and you love the rams. And this was your Simon Says,”
PHI 37, LAR 20 — Eagles beat Rams 37-20; Los Angeles lost outright by 17, busting the +3 spread (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“if you're getting plus one and a half on Arizona again, I'd take that number because I just said it. I think it's by kickoff, I just can't I'd be shocked if Arizona is not a favorite by kickoff.”
SEA 16, ARI 6 — Seahawks beat Cardinals 16-6; Arizona lost outright, busting the +1.5 spread (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“Sorry, Chad. Simon says, give me the rams plus three. When Simon says do it, we do what Simon says.”
PHI 37, LAR 20 — Eagles beat Rams 37-20; Los Angeles lost outright by 17, busting the +3 spread (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“Going with the chalk once again. Going with Joe Public. I'll take the lions on minus seven and a half.”
DET 24, IND 6 — Lions beat Colts 24-6, an 18-point margin that covers -7.5 (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“But, yeah, with that with that news, I've I've only made two bets right now in this game that's just been on green bet. Bet him when those two. Bet him one again and got two and half because I thought, okay. This might keep going up if Purdy's out. He's back. I I'm happy to buy to my position if I really like the 40 niners here, but, yeah, this is a game where if you're gonna bet it early, I would just bet Green Bay to be safe because”
GB 38, SF 10 — Packers beat 49ers 38-10, a 28-point margin that covers -2.5 (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“I took the Eagles here right away at two and a half. Because there's a couple of books at it two, two and a half. I just took that early just because I I assume this will go up to three, three and a half by Kickoff.”
LAR 20, PHI 37 — Eagles beat Rams 37-20; Eagles -2.5 covered with a margin of +17 (ESPN box score).
“Patriots, are we the suckers? Are we a sucker we're trying to take the Patriots at plus seven and a half? That feels like it's a lot of points for that matchup. I forgot who they're playing. Hold on. They're playing Miami. Oh, yeah. I was really focused on home dogs. Yeah. I know. They're on the road. I'm just taking that one right now. They're just another big big dog that popped out to me.”
MIA 34, NE 15 — Dolphins beat Patriots 34-15; Patriots +7.5 failed to cover, margin -19 (ESPN box score).
“I make this a pick. We're getting plus one and a half, plus two right now in the 49ers. This is just an early bet I'm gonna make right now as 49ers too. I just love that number.”
GB 38, SF 10 — Packers beat 49ers 38-10; 49ers +1.5 failed to cover, margin -28 (ESPN box score).
“if it's already moved to three and a half, might as well just fucking wait and see what this line is. Yeah. I was with a couple of professionals who were, like, literally talking during that bears game. They were gonna bet the bears no matter what this upcoming week because they just think that Caleb looks way freer, I guess, today than he's had looked in weeks. And I would totally agree. Do you because, again, I didn't watch enough of that game. Yes. My view was it just seemed like if by free, do you mean he's just scrambling more and running with the ball? He ran a lot more, but also he was it felt like they were they were throwing more vertical passes, like downfield. Like, the routes he was running were that that the receivers were running were just more vertical. They weren't throwing as many crossing routes, and the players made better plays. There were also a lot more screens. Like, it was out of his hands in about two seconds flat versus being closer to three seconds. So who knows? Maybe the protection was a little bit better, but, clearly, they did something that gave him the confidence that gave him the confidence to play as aggressively as he did all game. I think a lot of it had to do with getting the ball out of his hands fast. Alright. I'll throw a couple thousand on then because I I I could see professionals betting this down to three.”
CHI 27, MIN 30 — Vikings beat Bears 30-27 in OT; Bears +3.5 covered with a margin of -3 (ESPN box score).
“Detroit, I've just been hammering it. I've at thirteen, I was just all over it. 13 and a half, I played a little bit.”
DET 52, JAX 6 — Lions beat Jaguars 52-6; Lions -13 covered with a margin of +46 (ESPN box score).
“Two and a half, chiefs, if you can still find it, that's no brow no doubt about getting one of my bigger bets.”
BUF 30, KC 21 — Bills beat Chiefs 30-21; Chiefs +2.5 failed to cover, margin -9 (ESPN box score).
“Pittsburgh, I was hoping we'd still get the three and a half, Chad. We've seen now it's the books are gonna hold down the three. I haven't broken yet. Like, my early heavy money was on the three and a half. Haven't touched the three yet. I'm gonna give in. This will be one of my bigger bets if it just stays in the three. I don't I don't hate taking the three. I just want the three and a half.”
PIT 18, BAL 16 — Steelers beat Ravens 18-16; Steelers covered +3 with a margin of +2 (ESPN box score).
“it's down to four and a half like you just said on this Rams team. That to me is there's there's too much line movement right now in to pass on this value.”
NE 22, LAR 28 — Rams beat Patriots 28-22; Rams -4.5 covered with a margin of +6 (ESPN box score).
“We're sort of leaning chargers right now minus one and a half against the Bengals. Maybe we're, like, on the wrong side of the wave now with the chargers because we've avoided the chargers. We've said they're a little bit too vanilla. We didn't believe they were good enough to beat good teams. Now all of a sudden, we've changed our tune, and they could beat a good quarterback, which they haven't done this year. They've lost to Mahomes. They've lost to Kyler Murray. But maybe we're snake bitten. They've basically done things they don't do the things that have burned us the most. They don't make bad coaching decisions. They don't make bad penalties at the worst possible time. They don't turn the ball over. So now we like the chargers. We're not gonna put them in the contest, I don't think, but give me your take here. I wouldn't mind putting them in. I I love the chargers in the spot. This is probably gonna end up being one of my bigger bets. I just love the number. Love this team. The biggest thing I love about them is that they're not the Cincinnati Bengals team, Chad. I think this is one of more overrated teams this season. You're like me, though. You love Joe Burrow, and he kinda blinds you to it. Love him.”
LAC 34, CIN 27 — Chargers beat Bengals 34-27; Chargers -1.5 covered with a margin of +7 (ESPN box score).
“Colts plus four at the New York Jets Went from four to three and a half since we last met. Also since we last met, Anthony Richardson back in the starting lineup. Soon after that, the line moved back to Colts plus four. Are you as in love with the colts in this game as I am? No. I'm not. No. You're not. I'm betting it because I think it's a good number. I don't think this Jets team should be a four point favorite against anybody, but”
NYJ 27, IND 28 — Colts beat Jets 28-27; Colts +4 covered with a margin of +1 (ESPN box score).
“I mean, you talk about it. Like, this is just us playing a number. At three and a half, especially in contest at at Pittsburgh at home and divisional game against this Ravens team, who they've always done well against. This is the only team that Lamar really struggles against, in the division especially. So, yeah, I like Pittsburgh. I like the number. Tomlin is a dog. It's just good to us. It's same thing as last week. Like, it's not easy bent against these great quarterbacks, which we”
PIT 18, BAL 16 — Steelers beat Ravens 18-16; Steelers covered +3.5 with a margin of +2 (ESPN box score).
“Now it's two and a half on the chiefs, and people know I'm so obsessed with the two and a half numbers. So this will be one of our five just like Pittsburgh. I mean, we can literally after the show, Chad, lock our five in if you want because I already know what a couple of them are gonna be. But Pittsburgh, three and a half, it's same as the Chiefs at two and a half here. It might not win people, but long term,”
BUF 30, KC 21 — Bills beat Chiefs 30-21; Chiefs +2.5 failed to cover, margin -9 (ESPN box score).
“Cincinnati at Los Angeles Chargers. Chargers now one and a half. Opened at two and a half. Didn't make sense. We flagged it on Sunday that that the Bengals should not be two and a half point dogs. Moved all the way down to one. Professional money moved the Bengals. It's now back up to one and a five one and a half. Yep. I love the Chargers. Dude, it's so weird that you say that because I know that we we have a soft spot for the Bengals and Joe Burrow, and we don't like betting against them. No. But, like, we have been avoiding this Chargers team because their stat lines in each game are relatively even, and they don't do anything remarkable. They're they're they're beating bad teams. Their losses are the teams that are, like, above average offensive grades across all the geeky advanced metrics that make us feel better. But the thing is they also don't do the stupid things Yeah. That tend to grow those pits in our stomach. Right? They don't get the bad penalties that the Rams got this week. They don't get the missed field goals that the Niners got this week. They're not inconsistent like the colts. They don't have high variance play calls that make us crazy. They don't have turnovers. They're like the biggest one to me. The dump they don't do the dump turnovers, which has been plaguing them for years. It's boring, predictable football. Yeah. So this was going to be my exact decision. So I love that you like the chargers here too. Give me your logic. Yeah. For a lot of what you just said, the matchup wise too, I think, is really good for this team. I know the Bengals just shut down the run kind of last week with the the Ravens team, but that's not who they are. They're not good against the run. And I think that's gonna be really telling this game that they're basically gonna use the run to set up the pass, and that's why Herbert's been so great this year. Like, that middle of the field is so open because these linebackers have to step up because they have to respect the run. And that's really unlocked a lot of stuff he wants to do this year because we know that Herbert's deadly accurate. His his biggest issue has just been the consistency. He's been inconsistent, and Harbaugh has found a rhythm with him that, he knows when he needs an easy one to get going. Like, when he needs just a little short two yard dump off to his tight end just to get him in a little bit of a rhythm, and it's worked out. Like, even when he's out of sync, I've watched other games where he gets him back in sync with a couple easy calls like that. So, when a coach and a quarterback are in tandem like that, it's it's great. It's like they both know what they need to kinda get this thing to work. On the flip side of this Bengals team, you know, we talked Sunday night where it's like, okay. This number is two and a half, and my first thought was just gonna be this is gonna be that biggest public side of the week. Like, everyone's gonna come in on this Bengals team for what you just talked about. It's the fun, sexy team, the high flying offenses team just put up whatever it was, 35, 34 points against the Ravens on Thursday night. Like, it's it makes sense why the public would like this team so much. But to me, looking at this matchup, that number made sense at two and a half. It's like two and a half, three. That's what I would make this Chargers team because there is no road home field advantage for them here, but I just think They're the better team overall. So the movement, that's what makes me like it so much. It's like, this is real good value on this Chargers team. Even if this doesn't win for us because, you know, say Tee Higgins does come back, Chad, maybe we'll get even better of a number. That's why it's like, you don't have to rush to bet this number now. No. I'm taking it now just because”
LAC 34, CIN 27 — Chargers beat Bengals 34-27; Chargers -1.5 covered with a margin of +7 (ESPN box score).
“This is easy bet. I am on bet three six five in New Jersey. The line has flipped to plus one and a half on the Chiefs. Hammer that number on the Chiefs.”
BUF 30, KC 21 — Bills beat Chiefs 30-21; Chiefs lost outright, margin -9 vs +1.5 line, bust (ESPN box score).
“I'll take the seven right away. Like you just said, who are this 49ers team to be getting that seven? I know the seahawks have been bad and everything. We we we get it. But like Chad just said, they're coming off a buy in a divisional game that's a must win for the Seahawks team.”
SF 17, SEA 20 — Seahawks beat 49ers 20-17; Seahawks covered +7 with a margin of +3 (ESPN box score).
“I'm betting I already bet the packers are minus six and a half. What's your view on this? Like, isn't this a huge smash spot for Green Bay?”
CHI 19, GB 20 — Packers beat Bears 20-19; Packers -6.5 failed to cover, margin only +1 (ESPN box score).
“you basically just need to go two for three on this thing to get money because that's how big of a dog right now the Cowboys are. Alright. Who are your biggest bets right now? Yeah. Right off the top, Pittsburgh plus three. If you can still find it, love it. Obviously, the Giants at five and a half, it's gone. So now that's not gonna be one my bigger bets. It's up to six and a half. Colts right now, them and them and Pittsburgh, would say my two biggest. Lions I'm waiting on, Detroit, that's gonna be my bigger bets depending on, who's healthy for Houston.”
WSH 27, PIT 28 — Steelers beat Commanders 28-27; Pittsburgh +3 covers, winning outright (ESPN box score).
“looking at the matchup with this Bills team, you can attack the middle field. You can run it down their throat if you can establish it. And that's what the Colts wanna do, though. That's that's literally what their identity is built around this team is. They basically ride down your throat. Once you have the the safety you step up, they just take deep shots. And, we've seen that even Anthony Richardson, how Joe Flacco is happy to run that same exact type of offense where it's like, okay. Bring the safeties down to stop the run. That's when we'll attack these teams deep. And, offensively, obviously, we're scared of this Bills team. You know, we're they're To be able to move the ball. It's can the Colts keep up with them offensive? I I think that can in this matchup. So, another game, I mean, you were just really playing the number. I think this number should be three. It's four, three and a half. We're happy to still take the four if you can find it.”
IND 20, BUF 30 — Bills beat Colts 30-20; Indianapolis +4 busts, losing by 10 (ESPN box score).
“I'm happy this is not gonna be one of our five, and we don't have to because I'm I I did bet the bronco is eight and a half”
KC 16, DEN 14 — Chiefs beat Broncos 16-14; Denver +8.5 covers, losing by only 2 (ESPN box score).
“New Orleans saints plus three and a half at home against the Atlanta falcons. Look. The line moved from three to four. It touched four. I grabbed it at four yesterday. I had already bettered at three and a half.”
NO 20, ATL 17 — Saints beat Falcons 20-17; New Orleans +4 covers, winning outright (ESPN box score).
“eagles across the board are a much better team. Yeah. Hertz is o for three in his career in Dallas. But at seven and a half, I don't mind taking the number. I I bet this number.”
DAL 6, PHI 34 — Eagles beat Cowboys 34-6; Dallas +7.5 busts, losing by 28 (ESPN box score).
“this game is just a really great Thursday game, and we're just playing the number, but it's one that I'm happy we can't put in the contest, honestly, Chad, because I could see us taking this Bengals team, and they're just having some type of heartbreak. Right? They're just this season has not gone the way they planned even though Joe Burrow is playing at such a high level and VP level. Man, is their defense bad. Yeah. So it's interesting to me. I feel like we would definitely put this in the context. I wouldn't let us. Like, this is what's been burning us this year, this exact game. Well, look. The the the challenge here is and it's at six, I'd still bet it at six, by the way. I did bet it at six.”
BAL 35, CIN 34 — Ravens beat Bengals 35-34; Cincinnati +6 covers, losing by only 1 (ESPN box score).
“So here, it won't matter because we'll we'll be down by two at the time he does it, and we won't even care. We'll get the cover. So this will not be in my money line round robin. This will not be I won't do that to people because I don't think they're gonna win. I think Atlanta, they have whatever the saints don't have to win these games close at the end. Atlanta's has it. Right? Kirk has done it this season in multiple different games. So, yeah, this is not what I'm putting too much in the money line, but plus plus three and a half now. I'm definitely grabbing this year.”
NO 20, ATL 17 — Saints beat Falcons 20-17; New Orleans +3.5 covers, winning outright (ESPN box score).
“Simon says give me Pittsburgh plus three.”
WSH 27, PIT 28 — Steelers beat Commanders 28-27; Pittsburgh +3 covers, winning outright (ESPN box score).
“I'm also gonna bet the Eagles minus 13 and a half because I could easily see them just blow this Cowboys team out.”
DAL 6, PHI 34 — Eagles beat Cowboys 34-6; Philadelphia -13.5 covers, winning by 28 (ESPN box score).
“yes, I am taking the minus three and a half, and I'll take the three. I think this is a total head fake by the professionals, and they're just moving the number to get a better number on the Detroit team.”
HOU 23, DET 26 — Lions beat Texans 26-23; Detroit -3.5 busts, winning by only 3 (ESPN box score).
“I'm like, I hammered Detroit when it popped on three. I was hoping it'd get it'd be today for the three because that was gonna be my Simon Says pick.”
HOU 23, DET 26 — Lions beat Texans 26-23; Detroit -3 pushes, winning by exactly 3 (ESPN box score).
“they're minus six right now against Cincinnati Bengals. I'm gonna take the plus six. Like, Joe Burrow against that defense, if you wanna grab that number early with me, I'll grab that now because I think that number goes down as well.”
BAL 35, CIN 34 — Ravens beat Bengals 35-34; Cincinnati +6 covers, losing by only 1 (ESPN box score).
“New Orleans at Carolina. This one is up to seven and a half, Simon. It was at seven, and I think it's trending to eight. It was at seven when we spoke on Tuesday. We liked it then. The saints, minus seven and a half. Look. It's it's oddly a pro's Joe's game with the public on the panthers and the money on the saints, and, like, the money that has moved it to seven and a half. I can't believe there are enough tickets on this game to have any kind of credible formula at all. It is by far the least bet game of any NFL game Name according to the number of tickets tracked in the Action Network app. I can't believe the majority of tickets are in the Panthers, but here we are. We live in a world in which we have to choose between the Saints and the Panthers. We've decided to cast our lot with the saints as more than touchdown favorites with a on the road, in the division, all bad trends for us. Yep. A quarterback in Derek Carr who is not just one of the worst in the NFL as a favorite. He is one step up from last as a favorite against the spread in the past twenty years. He's got a coach who was amongst the worst 10 coaches against the spread in the past twenty years, but we're doing it, and I feel fine. Yeah. You left out the best part. The saints have lost six games in a row since starting two and a. I mean, we're seeing historical stuff here. So You know what? Yeah. This is you're right. This this we slacked about it earlier, and, like, I couldn't I was giving you a couple options, like, for big balls, and and this was on the list, and you chose this one. And I'm like, yeah. This makes sense. This one takes balls. We're finally doing it, though. I'm so happy we're on this show. We're finally fading this Carolina team. For our fans, for our listeners. You know we're fucked. I I was that's what was about to say. This is only gonna end in one way, and it's gonna be us losing this season one of our five. But we have to do it.”
CAR 23, NO 22 — Panthers beat Saints 23-22; Saints -7.5 busts, losing outright (ESPN box score).
“didn't feel great about a lot of games. One of the games, like, I definitely started coming around to, New England plus three and a half at Tennessee. The trends back taking the pats. Do that. Teams off off a blowout loss who are then favored at home only cover 42% of the time the following week, past twenty years. Interesting. Money and tickets both on the paths, and this number hasn't budged. That worries me a little bit. Are we getting Will Levis at QB? Seems likely. Are we getting Jacoby Brissett? Seems likely. But then there's this, and we've talked about this. Hey. The titans stink. Like, they're tanking. They've traded away every player of of value. This week, it was Deontay Johnson. I'm not I'm thinking about the panthers. But the titans stink. They've traded away their best players. The titans just played the lions. Teams coming off a game against the lions tend to crater the next game because it is such a physical game. We just saw it with the Vikings too. That that is a hard road to travel and then be a home favorite of more than a field goal. That feels like an opportunity for us. Yeah. We talked on Tuesday. This is a bizarre line. We knew it gonna be the public dog of the week because everyone's you know, they're they're like us. They're looking at this saying, what in the world? What is this number? Why is it not just two and a half or three? You're gonna give us the hook. If it's a trap, me and Chad will walk into it holding hands. I mean, what else can we do here? This is too good of a number. This Tennessee team is terrible. How can you not bet on the patriots to win this game outright as well? It's just everything lines up where,”
TEN 20, NE 17 — Titans beat Patriots 20-17 in OT; New England +3.5 covers, losing by only 3 (ESPN box score).
“Detroit at Green Bay, Green Bay three and a half. This was Simon Says. I will say this is the game I've bet the most on this week. I've enjoyed getting the money down at three and a half. It's been getting closer and closer to three.”
GB 14, DET 24 — Lions beat Packers 24-14; Green Bay -3.5 busts, losing outright (ESPN box score).
“my real big money bets that I bet on this Rams team have all come at minus one, minus one and a half.”
LAR 26, SEA 20 — Rams beat Seahawks 26-20 in OT; Los Angeles Rams -1.5 covers, winning by 6 (ESPN box score).
“Dallas at Atlanta. Atlanta's a two and a half point favorite. I've changed my mind as often as Jerry Jones threatens reporters in the past forty eight hours. Betting Atlanta feels like a trap. Feels like when I walked into the Cincinnati Bear trap last week, and you tried to talk me out of it. You called me a fool. I didn't do it, and I got screwed. All of Atlanta's defense has come all of Atlanta's offense has come by playing the Bucks twice and the Panthers. Kirk Cousins, literally, eight touchdowns a thousand yards against the Panthers and the Bucks. Like, against any defense with a decent pass rush and people who can cover, they're a mediocre team. So the question becomes, do the Cowboys have a decent pass rush? Probably not. Micah Parsons still is not practiced. By the sounds of it from Mike McCarthy, he wasn't close to getting back on the field. Cornerback Doron Bland was expected to practice today. It's Thursday. We don't know what's happened yet. Maybe the Cowboys were better in coverage. Are they Team that has shown they have the ability to respond to adversity. Not really. This is a split across the board. You know? We didn't talk about it in in sharp calls. Like, I wanted to bet the Cowboys on Tuesday. You kinda talked me out of it. If this game gets to three, I'd probably wanna bet the Cowboys. I don't feel good enough to put it in the contest for sure. No. No. I like Atlanta. I think Cowboys are just a bad team. You know, last week, we took them because we thought they had major injuries to the 40 niners, and we should have adjusted. Right? When Kittle and Deebo came back, that was should've been our mark to move off it. We didn't take it serious. Then what happened? Kittle had, like, the game of his life. Right? He dominated that game. He kinda flipped it. They lose by six. We faded this team against Pittsburgh. Once again, I'd make that bet 10 out of 10 times, especially this Pittsburgh team we've seen this year. We just got unlucky. Right? Dak drove the field on a fourth down, completed this insane pass. It was third receiver to beat us. Then they beat the Giants, you know, and it kinda another fluky win, and then they opened the season by beating Cleveland. So they have three wins this season. Easily could have one, maybe two wins. The Cowboys are just a bad team. They are so bad. That's why I can't imagine putting money on them right now that they gotta be filling in the locker room, and there's no adjustments to make. They they can't stop the run, and they can't run the football. There's nothing they can do, Chad. They're they're dead in the water. There is no adjustments to be made. Then all the players, it's just we we knew coming to the season, it was gonna be bad for them. I didn't know it was gonna be this bad for this Cowboys team. It's just it it's terrible. So could they steal this game, Chad? Yeah. I think you nailed it. Like, whoever's the ball last, let's talk about this on Tuesday. That's why I wouldn't bet it either. It's like, I'm bet I did bet Atlanta, I should say, but I wouldn't make this one over five because it's whoever whoever the ball last, I could see them winning this game. Right? It's Cowboys, Dak, he's that good of a quarterback. He didn't see that connection. They could drive the field. I mean, we had opportunity against 49ers. They could have drove the field and got us that upset win. I like that's what we're gonna have every week with this Cowboys team. They play mediocre mediocre teams. Right? And that's what this Atlanta team is. We don't think they're that great of a team. That's why we're both hesitant to take it. Yeah, there's threes out there if you do want the Cowboys, Chad. I'm I am on Atlanta, but it's one of my smaller bets. I just”
ATL 27, DAL 21 — Falcons beat Cowboys 27-21; Atlanta -2.5 covers, winning by 6 (ESPN box score).
“But we're Green Bay, three and a half. Simon says Green Bay plus three and a half. Time to fade. The boys from River City, who we love. No disrespect.”
GB 14, DET 24 — Lions beat the Packers 24-14; Green Bay lost by 10, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“you know, Denver's defense is no just walkover. Their their defense actually play Fierce. Yes. I agree. And I just think this is way too much way too much number not to take a a plus nine. I I wanted to avoid this game just because we are so due for a Ravens just to roll a team by 30 points and Denver to play bad. Right? I mean, they're literally half a game away from hitting their win total. We're not even at the midway point. Like, this is a team that has overachieved so much, and then we have a team in the Ravens that are a veteran team coming off a brutal divisional loss. This is usually where they kill a team like this, especially the rookie quarterback. So Yes. Just being weird. Not guaranteed to be one of our five, but, man, am I I mean, I'm betting this right now. Like, literally, I bet it before it came on the air. The two a couple of books are back up to nine. I'm gonna bet it again just because it's crossed that key number again.”
BAL 41, DEN 10 — Ravens routed the Broncos 41-10; Denver lost by 31, failing to cover +9 (ESPN box score).
“and I'm just not there. So, another game, this is three and a half in our contest. The dogs this week, this is one of the dogs I like. I would not be shocked if you put this in our contest. It's just too many points for a Tennessee team that if they won by three, I think that'd be a great game from Tennessee. On the flip side, the Patriots team, as bad as they've been this year, they've been much better than Tennessee. Like, they they rarely do get blown out. They usually do hang in the games. Like, the only game I can really think of was that Houston game where they really did get dominated from their first snap to the end of the game. You talk about Houston's a really good team. Like, even on the weeks they don't have it all put together, we know once that offense gets rolling, that they're pretty unstoppable. Sam can go for, you know, a bunch of teams that Tennessee's played this year, but overall, to me, Tennessee is a struggle, especially against bad teams this year. And, you know, it's just it's to me, another coaching game where either side of the ball, I don't trust the coaches on either side. I don't know if you have the same feeling here, but it's really just about the spread and, you know, it would be great if it was Broussette, but I wouldn't let Drake May being in there throw me totally off. There's things he can do that Broussette can't do that I actually like about Brissett. So, yeah, that's this is a tricky number right now because we don't have a lot of info on the injuries with both sides, but three and a half, I'll grab that right now just in case it does go back down to three, two and a half.”
TEN 20, NE 17 — Titans beat the Patriots 20-17 in overtime; New England lost by only 3, covering +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Still love them. I'd still bet them because it's under the key number, which we always talk about too. So right now, the highest I'm seeing in Los Angeles minus one and a half at a couple books.”
SEA 20, LAR 26 (OT) — Rams beat the Seahawks 26-20 in overtime, covering -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“old old Simon would have just hopped right on this Jets team. Trust the books here, but I'll I'll take the chalk earlier on Houston. I mean, that Jets team's in total disarray. They're terrible. Yeah. Who are they to be under three points to a a playoff contending team in Houston? I don't care if it's a short week, and they just had a tough divisional game. This is this is a bizarre number by the sports books to hang. And, like, the early money is coming in on the jets. Like, the professionals are coming on the jets. I don't get it. So, I'll I'll take Houston minus one off the bat.”
NYJ 21, HOU 13 — Jets beat the Texans 21-13; Houston lost by 8, failing to cover -1 (ESPN box score).
“alright. The games that we pegged, like, we feel strongest about, Buffalo minus six,”
BUF 30, MIA 27 — Bills beat the Dolphins 30-27; Buffalo won by only 3, failing to cover -6 (ESPN box score).
“And the Raiders are up to eight and a half. So Interesting. Yeah. It's it's a key number. I'll I'll take the Raiders.”
CIN 41, LV 24 — Bengals beat the Raiders 41-24; Las Vegas lost by 17, failing to cover +8.5 (ESPN box score).
“the Giants are plus three and a half against the Commanders. I get it. They're dead, but they Daniel Jones only plays good against one team in his career. It's the Commanders.”
NYG 22, WSH 27 — Commanders beat the Giants 27-22; New York lost by 5, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I bet the cards at three and a half. I bet it because of the number. It wasn't because of anything else. I just wanted to hook with Kyler”
MIA 27, ARI 28 — Cardinals won 28-27 outright over the Dolphins, covering +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I have not touched anything Jags three and a half, but I'd still do it. It's just try to get the four. The four is such a key number.”
JAX 27, GB 30 — Packers beat the Jaguars 30-27; Jacksonville lost by 3, covering +4 (ESPN box score).
“We both bet the bears at one and a half even with the injury to Jaden Daniels. I don't love we're betting against the line flip. 42% betting against the line flip since 2019. But Caleb Williams has been doing special things, undefeated in the second half this year against the spread. Only other person is Patrick Mahomes. How bad how bad will Washington be with Marcus Mariota? Like, you you pointed it out on Tuesday how terrible he is. They've had 12 punts this season, the fewest since 1950. They've been perfect on fourth downs and nearly 50% on third downs. All of that changes without Jaden Daniels. So to me, I'm fine betting the bears because I think we have to think about this not as a line flip, but as a new line with the bears as less than a field goal. Yeah. And the bookmakers are just like me where it's seven points of value from Jane Daniels to Marcus Mariota. So, like, the line flip to me makes total sense. They they need to make that flip because anyone who has a model is gonna see that this is just an offline. So, sure. I mean, you might get caught. Maybe we're stepping in here back in this bears team, but, I think foxhole? Are we in the foxhole with the bears? I'd love to be in the foxhole and the bears. That'd be really nice. I would love to be in a foxhole with you and the bears. Let's go. That would be my dream foxhole. Me, you, and the Chicago freaking bears. We are in the foxhole. You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team. I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy. Just matchup wise, we've talked about it. I love the way this defense can match up against the Washington on offense. We know Washington was gonna have a bunch of regression coming up. Right? Their third down completion rate, it's impossible to sustain that. Being nine for nine on fourth downs, you just can't sustain that type of, consistency for the whole season, especially with a young inexperienced offense that they have with Jane Daniels. Now you say, well, Mariota's coming. That should be different. I really do think Jane Daniels is that much better than Marcus Mariota. Like, that's why I'm so willing to say the line moves so much. It's just night and day. That's not going out on a limb. It's not, but people professionally wise think it is where it's like they think Mario can do a lot of the same stuff that he does, which is, you know, being a mobile quarterback. And I think that there's more to Jay and Daniel's game right now than Marksmario. So my view of this is just bears are smart. Their coaching staff's smart enough. They'll just stack the box, they'll force Marriot to pass the ball. Right? The key to this game will be stopping Brian Robinson and Austin Eckler. Like, you stop the run game, force Marriot to pass, especially on third and eights. Like, that's me and Chad are gonna make our money on third and eights against Mariota. Like, that's where we wanna be where he's gotta pass the ball over 10 yards, and we're gonna get either stupid pass or a tip pass, get some turnovers here with this Bears secondary. That's been so good this season. Offensively, Bears, I can't find the weakness in the matchup for them against this Washington team. Like, Washington this year has been lucky that they've been up in so many leads because it's easy for them to pin their ears back and just rush the passer. Right? And that will not be the case here. I think the the bears will able keep them off balance, especially if this game's close. And the fact that it's still under three is the key to me. Like, I just like that number a lot at two and a half. So, yeah, people can tell listen to this. This is one of my favorite chalker sides of the week is this bears matchup, especially coming off the bye week. I've been trying to figure out which chalky game, which public game we're gonna put in.”
WSH 18, CHI 15 — Commanders beat the Bears 18-15; Chicago lost outright, failing to cover -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm totally tempted at three and a half. Like, of course, am. I already bet it. You can see it in the app. I bet Arizona at three and a half.”
MIA 27, ARI 28 — Cardinals won 28-27 outright over the Dolphins, covering +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'll follow you on this one. I I do love this Lions team. It's just, you know, it just irks me to take a big favorite. So I gotta kinda push that aside and just know that this is a good number, and it probably should be closer to 14. Dude, we hate taking big favorites, but we do think the number should be much, much higher Yeah. Than 11, and it's come down.”
DET 52, TEN 14 — Lions blew out the Titans 52-14, covering -11 easily (ESPN box score).
“We are taking the Cleveland Browns at plus six.”
CIN 21, CLE 14 — Bengals beat Browns 21-14; Cleveland margin -7 vs +6, busts (ESPN).
“I I think you still have a lot of value on Detroit at plus one and a half, so I still have no issue taking that number.”
DET 31, MIN 29 — Lions beat Vikings 31-29; Detroit margin +2 vs +1.5, covers (ESPN).
“No. I agree with them that that's probably the right number. I just still have major questions about this Green Bay team. They're so dependent defensively on turn overs. Like, that's the only thing I could think of is, like, okay. Maybe they'll get the young kid on the road here and get him to turn over. Because you're right. Like, the splits are different between him at home and him on the road. Like you said, it's it's all about the number at the end of the day. And it's like, okay. Two and a half, that's the good number. I trust the guys who are saying that. I I'll take it.”
GB 24, HOU 22 — Packers beat Texans 24-22; Green Bay margin +2 vs -2.5, busts (ESPN).
“I'm sticking with the Bucks. Yeah. And it's really like you said, it's it's all about V2V. If he can stop this whole Derrick Henry run, that's the key. Like, he's been so incredibly dominant for this Ravens team. Anytime they need a big run, it feels like he gets it for him. And he's been flipped he's flipped a couple games, it seems like, this season for this team. So that's the big one, and I like you talked about it. If Mike Evans is back, him and Godwin against the secondary, that's chef's kiss. It's like this is the perfect matchup for them offensively, especially Baker. You know, as bad as he played against that same team with those turnovers, he had those moments of brilliance where it's just like, man, his arm talent's so good. And when he needs to pull it down and run the ball, he's been doing it this season. Like, when things break down, he's got no issue running the ball. So we like backing Lamar, and it's only when it's under three. I mean, you talk to Nas about that trend. When it's under three, I think he's, what, twenties four and seven at this point I like that. Yeah. Against the spread. When it's above it, we we do wanna fade them. And, you know, last week ended up as being a push of the plus seven on the commanders, but you see why. It's like they're even Lamar's whole career, you know, they they usually they used to blow teams out, but we've seen the last two years, games usually get a little tight. They get a little close towards the end. They really haven't been closing teams out like they used to, and that's why they went out and got Derrick Henry to try to change that. It just has not worked out for them this year. Right? Like, every game for the most part for them has been pretty damn close. So, you know, this is another game, meaning you just trust the number. Right, Chad? It's like, plus three and a half. It's a good number for a home divisional dog or not divisional dog, but a home dog that's, like, still a little underrated to the general public.”
BAL 41, TB 31 — Ravens beat Buccaneers 41-31; Tampa Bay margin -10 vs +3.5, busts (ESPN).
“So, yeah, sitting right now, it's pretty chalky, honestly. It's like I'm pretty heavy on lions at two and a half, but but pretty heavy on them at two. Same with the chiefs, pretty heavy at one and a half.”
KC 28, SF 18 — Chiefs beat 49ers 28-18; Kansas City margin +10 vs +1.5, covers (ESPN).
“Again, another game I got lucky that I locked in early on Tuesday. Jets minus one and a half.”
PIT 37, NYJ 15 — Steelers beat Jets 37-15; New York Jets margin -22 vs -1.5, busts (ESPN).
“I took Atlanta minus two and a half”
SEA 34, ATL 14 — Seahawks beat Falcons 34-14; Atlanta margin -20 vs -2.5, busts (ESPN).
“Chad nailed it. I I like this matchup. We like the plus three and a half with Tampa.”
BAL 41, TB 31 — Ravens beat Buccaneers 41-31; Tampa Bay margin -10 vs +3.5, busts (ESPN).
“So that's why this number's backed down at two and a half, and I'll I'll just take the sucker bet and the home favorite under a field goal in this Atlanta team.”
SEA 34, ATL 14 — Seahawks beat Falcons 34-14; Atlanta margin -20 vs -2.5, busts (ESPN).
“So I I bet this one is broncos minus one. I'd still take it here at minus two.”
DEN 33, NO 10 — Broncos beat Saints 33-10; Denver margin +23 vs -2, covers (ESPN).
“I'll grab the four and a half. I could see this being going down to four, three and a half by kickoff. It's just even if the public's really heavy on this Baltimore team, I just I can see the professionals coming in on this Buccaneers team, especially four and a half. That's just too many points to me, so I wouldn't grab that right now.”
BAL 41, TB 31 — Ravens beat Buccaneers 41-31; Tampa Bay margin -10 vs +4.5, busts (ESPN).
“you know, that just jumps out to me just to grab it right now is Atlanta's minus two and a half right now against Seattle at home. Don't we have to grab that Atlanta at home under under three against the Seattle defense? So that's why I didn't mention it. Yeah. It's two and a half right now. It'd be through it's minus one twenty. But Okay. Like, to me, that's something I'm gonna bet right now just because Seattle's defense needs to show me they can get stops.”
SEA 34, ATL 14 — Seahawks beat Falcons 34-14; Atlanta margin -20 vs -2.5, busts (ESPN).
“The only pause for me, once again, is just they lost a lot of guys in the offensive line, and that that should benefit this Houston team. But could they be a seven point favorite? I don't think so. Don't think Chad thinks that either. I think this is way too much respect for Houston team that this season, they're one of four against the against the spread. Like, they're a team that the books have no they can prop up, and the public will come in heavy on them, and that's good for the books. So, yeah, I think we're getting an extra point and a half of value here, Chad. So I'll definitely take this number on New England.”
HOU 41, NE 21 — Texans beat Patriots 41-21; New England margin -20 fails to cover +7 (ESPN).
“Detroit hasn't beat cowboys in Dallas in forever and all these different stuff Throw it away. Like, I throw it out. Exactly. I just don't view it that way. So I'm with Chad here. Give me the best offensive line that's greater run blocking against a suspect defensive line that doesn't have their best run stopping defender. So the only thing I can think here, we're get burned by a bad golf game. Because the last time we saw him, he was perfect. I think he was 18 for 18 in their last win. You know? Coming off a bye week, does that get in his head? Does that get in the whole team's head? Right? Do they come out sluggish in this game against a team that technically, this is a short rest week. Right? They're running away game on Sunday night, so they didn't get home till, what, Monday morning to let their body start healing? It's just everything lines up to love this Detroit team. I do not get this line. So I'm hoping this is just like Washington, Cleveland last week, Chad, where the books are dead fucking wrong hanging a three. Even if this is minus three and a half in contest, I feel like we're gonna force this one in regardless.”
DET 47, DAL 9 — Lions beat Cowboys 47-9; Detroit margin +38 covers -3 (ESPN).
“Chad, let's hop in that foxhole. Give me the Carolina panthers plus six. You know me regardless of what's going on. I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team.”
ATL 38, CAR 20 — Falcons beat Panthers 38-20; Carolina margin -18 fails to cover +6 (ESPN).
“Arizona Green Bay. Green Bay, still a five point favorite. I am shocked that there is no conversation about this game from professionals. There was, but it's split. It's like the line isn't really moving. Like, everything I said on Tuesday still to me is true today. It's kind of a funky line. The eye test makes me lean, Packers, cardinals just won their biggest game of the year. Like, the biggest difference is to me. The cardinals are a very public dog, and that makes me feel better about the packers right now. I don't have it up. I I've lost the tab, but the public number on this game, real quickly, I'm getting to it, is, you know, 60% of the tickets are on the cardinals, 63% of the money on the cardinals. So feels like, at least from a public point of view, they like the Cardinals, which makes me like the Packers even more. Yeah. And the professional bettors I talked to, it's split where the trend bettors, people who just simply bet trends, they love the Cardinals in this spot. A lot of really good trends to this Cardinals team a lot of good trends that fade Green Bay in this spot. But a lot of the professionals I talked to, they like what we like here with Green Bay kind of in a nice spot against the cardinals team that, you know, we expect to have a letdown game. But, yeah, after reading Evan's article, I I got a little bit of pushback on that. Kyler's actually not as bad as you think he would be in this spot historically. Teams after, you know, beating divisional divisional games as a big underdog actually performed pretty well on this spot going on the road back to back weeks. But I don't know, Chad. There's something I can't shake here where it feels like we're still getting value. And it's like, well, I still think this number should be closer to six and a half, seven. I still like it if you still like it. If you wanna put it in as one of our favorites, I honestly wouldn't fight you on it. It's like, I bet this number. I bet Green Bay in this spot.”
GB 34, ARI 13 — Packers beat Cardinals 34-13; Green Bay margin +21 covers -5 (ESPN).
“a couple of books moved to the two and a half, I bet it. It's like, okay. Now it's under three. I might as well take the chargers here.”
LAC 23, DEN 16 — Chargers beat Broncos 23-16; Los Angeles margin +7 covers -2.5 (ESPN).
“It's three and a half. I'm gonna take the value and play the Giants here.”
CIN 17, NYG 7 — Bengals beat Giants 17-7; New York margin -10 fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN).
“But you said on a Sunday night, Detroit at minus three. It's gone up to three and a half. I don't think that's public money earlier in the week. I think that's pros betting on the lions, and I don't disagree. I got a whole boatload of research and matchup that makes me feel that way, but you're still feeling that way. Detroit. You've won my heart. Yeah. How is this not a slam dunk? Another great match for Detroit. Like, all their strengths is this Cowboys team weaknesses. Like, they should be able to run it down Dallas' throat. And defensively, I don't think they mind back passing the ball a lot. Like, their defense can get turnovers. They're not as bad as they used to be, especially in the secondary. So, yeah, I I love this matchup, especially when it's at three, but this is gonna be the most public side of the week. I mean, how does every Joe public not walk in and take a minus three on the lines here? I just I think everyone's looking at this Dallas team and just thinking fraudulent, like, across the board. There's just so many things you don't trust about them, and You know, hat tip to deck. That was incredible. Him him drive I had no faith that he was gonna actually drive that field against that Pittsburgh defense. It was just vintage. Pittsburgh finds a way to win that game, an ugly game. That's such a Tomlin game where he wins. And, you know, sure enough, I think it was, like, a bad snap. They fumble out of the back, whatever it was, and it's, like, fourth and four. I was like, there's no way they're gonna get this. And Dak, big time throw, perfect touch, put it right where he needed to. That's that's why you pay a guy like him that that kind of money. It's like, he to me needed that kind of that kind of game. Right? That could be something where maybe we're missing them. They're riding into this game high, and they do show up and play well against the Detroit team that might be a little sluggish coming off their bye week. But me and Chad don't know that shit. You can't bet on that. Models won't predict this stuff. So I have this number of four and a half. I have a ton of value right now on Detroit. So, unfortunately, like, I'm I'm hoping Chad's right there is professional money coming out, but I'm with the public now. Like, there's still a couple books that have threes out there. We get off this call. I'm heading right down Atlantic City making a bunch of bets on Detroit. So I love this side.”
DET 47, DAL 9 — Lions beat Cowboys 47-9; Detroit margin +38 covers -3 (ESPN).
“So give me Giants plus three and a half. It's really more about Cincinnati and and their defense.”
CIN 17, NYG 7 — Bengals beat Giants 17-7; New York margin -10 fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN).
“huge gap between New England and Houston, and and Nico Collins probably is gonna be out. And we saw what happened when Nico Collins out against Buffalo. And so I do think that bodes well for us. Again, I'm not saying we're gonna put it in the contest. We did bet it. Both of us have bet it. You can see it in the app. I bet it at seven, but we're not gonna put it in the contest, Simon. We're not putting it in the contest. Why do you keep saying that? Because we're gonna end up putting in the contest. Yeah. I was just saying, like, to me, this is just this is a game we can't avoid. Like, I knew we're gonna love this number on Sunday night, and it's like, this is what the show does. We bet these type of spots. Am I a little scared because it's Drake May coming in? Not really, honestly. I mean, I saw there was throws to make for Brissett, and he just didn't make them. Like, that's a guy that just isn't that good. And, like, just watching these rookies, like, okay. There is upside with these guys once they get it figured out. The hesitation for me is we're betting on a rookie in his first game. Like, that that's always a scary proposition. And you saw it this year. Look how much these QBs have grown just this year, these three starters from their week one game. Right? Jane Daniels, you wouldn't even recognize if you go back and watch his week one tape. Caleb Williams too. So, yeah, I would say same Caleb Williams. So that's the thing right exactly now. The same. He looks exactly the same. That that's a fear with us betting this number. It's like we're get we're getting a rookie in this spot, but I love Drake May's tape so much. I love his upside so much. It's like, he to me, he's gonna bring such another element to this offense with him being able run the ball. Like, people don't understand. He's sneakily athletic. Obviously, he's a great arm. Like, there's just gonna be a bunch of bunch of throws we're gonna need him to make, Chad, that we're gonna be relying on this rookie for if it is the starter. So I'm grabbing the seven now.”
HOU 41, NE 21 — Texans beat Patriots 41-21; New England margin -20 fails to cover +7 (ESPN).
“And because of that, does that mean there is a greater chance Washington has to keep this game close? Are you still leaning Washington six and a half? I am, but the professionals think that Washington gets absolutely rolled here by this Ravens team. They like the matchup for the Ravens. They like the veteranship of the Ravens versus young Washington team, but I keep pushing back against them. You guys have said that for the last two straight weeks. You said that against Arizona, and you said it again against Cleveland. And I know some sharp groups that were heavy on Cleveland. I mean, they really moved that number. It was three and a half. A lot of books are back down to three before kick. Like, that's some really heavy sharp money moving that number down because so much public money was on Washington. I I told you this to me was gonna be the most public play of the week for me. Like, I knew this was gonna be a really heavy public dog, and it feels like Arizona last week. Like, I'm I'm trying to learn how to get bullied off this one because I do see their reasoning that, yes, no one's denying Baltimore is, you know, what, number two team right now in the AFC. I mean, you could even you wanted to put them above KC, but I wouldn't. But it's just they've played that well against a really tough schedule, and they probably should you know, a couple things bounced their way. They probably should be the top of the AFC right now. Like, they should have probably beat the Chiefs and a bunch of other stuff. So Yeah. I get the love for the Ravens, but it's just like, isn't this a good matchup for Jayne Daniels? You just said it. The Ravens can be passed on. This kid has a great arm, and he's comfortable right now. So there there you're right. There's something I need to dive into more, but I had bet this at plus six and a half.”
BAL 30, WSH 23 — Ravens beat Commanders 30-23; Washington margin -7 fails to cover +6.5 (ESPN).
“So, yep, let's let's take, this this Jets seem to bounce back after firing their coach and take the plus two and a half, Chad.”
BUF 23, NYJ 20 — Bills beat Jets 23-20; New York margin -3 fails to cover +2.5 (ESPN).
“Arizona, Green Bay Green Bay five point favorite. This is a funky line. Like, I'm surprised it hasn't moved one way. It did. It went up to five and a half. It came back down. But Oh, it did? I didn't even see that. Yeah. Like, I I said this on Sunday night. The eye test, the fade test, it all makes me wanna take I'm with you. The packers. Yeah. And even though, like, I don't have much value on this line either, I have to get it as good. I think it's a good number, and I I think this the book hungover a good number to get fair action on both sides pretty much. Like, you know, if you took Arizona last week and you're feeling pretty good on the flip side, Green Bay, it feels like they kinda stole one last week and that, you know, Jordan Love has looked rusty since coming back from this injury. Right? He's not really in a rhythm. You know, they also have a bunch of drama right now with who was it? Dobbs? I remember those numbers. Yeah. Yeah. Was getting upset because they weren't getting touches even though he was second on the team in the at the wide receiver position in touches, which is just it was very wide receiver like to be a diva in that sense, but I'm with you. I've actually come around on this green bag. You're right. This is like a nice spot. On the flip side, if we lose this, I'll be happy for our future market because this is like, okay. This is really Kyler truly taking that next step. Because I said it before that 49ers game. I thought he had regressed after the Rams game. Like, he was so good that you were like, okay. He's gonna keep getting better throughout the season. Did not happen. Right? And then, thankfully, he played pretty damn well against that 49ers team. Here is even more so. Like, this is what me and Chad are saying here is we don't believe in you, Kyler. This is a game you always lose, and you never cover. You always have a letdown after these big wins historically. So I'm with you. This is literally a prove it to me kinda bet here on this on this Green Bay Team. We're saying to the Arizona, it's like, okay. You guys are gonna be the sixth, seventh seed this year, maybe contend for your division. This is a game you must win, and don't think they're going to. I I do think this is a good matchup for Green Bay, especially the way they've been running the ball. This is a nice matchup defensively as well, for takeaways against Kyler. So I'm with you, Chad. It took me a minute to come around. I wasn't there Sunday night, but now here on Tuesday. I'm with you. I like this Green Bay. This might be one of our only favorites we agree on, but I think we both like this side.”
GB 34, ARI 13 — Packers beat Cardinals 34-13; Green Bay margin +21 covers -5 (ESPN).
“Well, to clean it up, this is the four bets I'm on. I took the Giants, home dog plus three and a half.”
CIN 17, NYG 7 — Bengals beat Giants 17-7; New York margin -10 fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN).
“Taking the Lions on the road minus three against the Cowboys.”
DET 47, DAL 9 — Lions beat Cowboys 47-9; Detroit margin +38 covers -3 (ESPN).
“Taking Washington plus six and a half on the road against the Ravens,”
BAL 30, WSH 23 — Ravens beat Commanders 30-23; Washington margin -7 fails to cover +6.5 (ESPN).
“And I think Chad's joining me. We're both taking the Patriots plus seven. We are.”
HOU 41, NE 21 — Texans beat Patriots 41-21; New England margin -20 fails to cover +7 (ESPN).
“bet for sure was the rams three and a half, bangles plus three.”
GB 24, LAR 19 — Packers beat Rams 24-19; Rams margin -5 fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN).
“bet for sure was the rams three and a half, bangles plus three.”
BAL 41, CIN 38 — Ravens beat Bengals 41-38 in OT; Bengals margin -3 pushes exactly on +3 (ESPN).
“Especially a couple of books hit plus six on the saints team. I grabbed it right away.”
KC 26, NO 13 — Chiefs beat Saints 26-13; Saints margin -13 fails to cover +6 (ESPN).
“You know, I'm gonna get there on Houston. I've just been waiting for that number to keep going up. So I'm I'm I'm slightly invested right now in the plus one and a half, not heavy.”
HOU 23, BUF 20 — Texans beat Bills 23-20; Houston margin +3 covers +1.5 (ESPN).
“Right now, the panthers are my biggest bet of the weekend. Wow. But that's also because I bet in the plus five.”
CHI 36, CAR 10 — Bears beat Panthers 36-10; Carolina margin -26 fails to cover +5 (ESPN).
“[9:26] Yeah, Saints down to minus five and a half in the market.”
26-13 — Kansas City beat New Orleans 26-13, so Saints -5.5 lost.
“So I'm going to be taking the Saints on the number and taking a little bit on the money line.”
26-13 — Kansas City beat New Orleans 26-13, so Saints moneyline lost.
“So the fact that the Raiders are up to two and a half I had to take it I just I a sucker for this team”
34-18 — Denver beat Las Vegas 34-18, so Raiders +2.5 lost.
“[32:37] Got to go with my man Brock Bowers. [32:39] He's just been unlucky.”
34-18 — Denver beat Las Vegas 34-18 and Brock Bowers scored 1 touchdown. (Brock Bowers 1 touchdown)
“[27:20] Man what a narrative swing Fields would have going from Bears outcast to MVP That be also very Bears just painfully Bears in that situation Simon your pick I right there with Evan [27:35] I took a position on Joe Burrow just because I like the Bengals this week to pull the upset [27:39] off against the Ravens. [27:40] I just think if he has a game where he balls out against the Ravens, he'll be back in the [27:44] top three.”
The NFL's 2024 honors record names a different MVP, so Joe Burrow MVP lost.
“the New Orleans saints are visiting the Kansas City chiefs. The Kansas City chiefs are five and a half point favorites now in some spots. Still five at three six five, but five and a half in other places. Simon? Yeah. The New Orleans saints There we go. Are my executive decision.”
KC 26, NO 13 — Chiefs beat Saints 26-13 on Monday Night Football; New Orleans +5.5 busts.
“Yeah. Right away, was like, you gotta take Green Bay there. It sucks up to three and a half. I'd still take that.”
GB 24, LAR 19 — Packers beat Rams 24-19; Green Bay -3.5 covers by 1.5.
“you can get Vegas right now as a plus two dog to Denver. I'm excited for Bo Knicks. Back to back road wins coming home now. I mean, come on. Don't we don't we have to take the race? You have to take the road dog under a field goal in the division.”
DEN 34, LV 18 — Broncos routed Raiders 34-18; Las Vegas +2 busts by a wide margin.
“So once that jumped right out to me right away, you can get Vegas right now as a plus two dog to Denver. I'm excited for Bo Knicks. Back to back road wins coming home now. I mean, come on. Don't we don't we have to take the race? You have to take the road dog under a field goal in the division. And I agree. Like, especially in this number and this spot where it's like, that one jumped out to me. It's like, okay. I talk all the time how I think tuners two is such a key number. It could go up to it could go up to two and a half, go up to three. Like, I don't know if the pros will be on this one, but for me right now, that's a game I'm gonna grab right away.”
DEN 34, LV 18 — Broncos routed Raiders 34-18; Las Vegas +2 busts by a wide margin.
“Side I was unsure about that I think you had more confidence in was the Jaguars. I said I'd bet if it got to seven. It did get to seven. I did bet it. It's now six and a half down to six in most books. That's easily one of the more professional sides this week.”
HOU 24, JAX 20 — Texans beat Jaguars 24-20; Jacksonville +7 covers, losing by only 4.
“So for me, not only do I like the match of this Bucks team, but it's like the trends fading fading hurts on the road has been very profitable for me. So, this is another spot where I kinda wanna fade them here on the road, especially, you know, the guys leading the league in turnovers. It's like, shouldn't we bet against that until he corrects it, especially when he's no longer the dog, when he's the favorite in these kind of spots? So, yeah, it's really what you talked on the very beginning. It's about playing the number. I make this closer to a pick. It's two and a half. I'm gonna take that value every time. Look.”
TB 33, PHI 16 — Buccaneers beat Eagles 33-16; Tampa Bay +2.5 covers easily.
“I told you the line was bad. You you really you couldn't get there. You thought the line should move more because these old line were around. I told you I moved it by half a point, made it two and a half. It's now two and a half. So, yeah, I'm with you. It's like, I I really love this line. I still love it, but I know it's gonna be harder to get you there, but I wish you had bet it at one and a half. It feels pretty good to be holding a one and half ticket in this matchup. It's like it feels like this this number is gonna matter in this one. It's just gonna be a close, ugly game. Went through Evans' trends. Their card tends to struggle on these kind of matchups against On the road. So another nice spot for Atlanta trend wise as well. I still think the the saints are a little overrated. I I just think the number says that. It's like, I told you, if that if there was no injury to this falcons team, I probably would have this number at three, three and a half. Alright? I did move it to two and a half out of respect to the injuries they have up front, but it's like,”
ATL 26, NO 24 — Falcons beat Saints 26-24; Atlanta -2.5 busts, winning by only 2.
“It's in the contest at one and a half. Say your piece. We love it. The fear is I'll say what the pushback is when I talk to other pros with their hesitation is because this is this is a pros versus jos. The pros absolutely love this Colts team. The public cannot get enough of this Pittsburgh team. Like, I was in Atlantic City yesterday with the three different sports books at each guy. I was like, who is the most money coming in on right now? It's always gonna be the Eagles, especially in Atlantic City. It's where its proximity is. Number two, without a doubt, was Pittsburgh. Like, just you can't stop getting enough money on Pittsburgh. So right now, you're saying it's four to one money right now on Pittsburgh compared to this Colts team. So, very telling. Because I joke to them. I go, yeah. Why don't you go back up to two then? He just gave me a side eye look of, like, we don't fucking need to. We like this spot. So that gave me some confidence here. I think me and you, our only real hesitation here is Anthony Richardson. Like, this guy is gonna burn us on one or two plays. Me and you know that when we bet this.”
IND 27, PIT 24 — Colts beat Steelers 27-24; Indianapolis +1.5 covers as an outright winner.
“I'm not. I'm I bet it the wavering is more just, I don't get why there's so many professionals going the other side taking this commanders team where it just feels like the obvious trap where it's like, this line hasn't moved too much in your opinion. I thought it moved too much, and a lot of guys are like, no. I think this is where it should be in this type type of matchup, and it's like, man. I get Danos did look amazing. Like, we've never seen anything like that. This kid You know, one week, he can't find the end zone. Right? They they they were driving at will against the Giants. Couldn't find the red zone. He follows it up where he couldn't miss. Everything he did turned into a touchdown. So it's like, me and you have to ride those extremes here. We we don't know what kind of get kid we're getting here, but what I know one thing I know what I'm going to get on the cardinal side is I like the way they're set up right now, and I think they're the way they are built is the same way the Bucks were built against this team. It's like they can ball control and have guys on the outside that can beat this commander's team. And defensively, they have guys that can get stops for them. Now their best e tackle is probably gone for the season, this Arizona team, but they are getting an offensive lineman back this week. So, you know, not total cancel out. It's a big deal for their defense, but, you know, this it's a young team that they lost a veteran on the defensive front. But, you know, this this number is just a tricky one where it's like, I really like Arizona. I feel like I'm missing something here. And I don't know what that is because, to me, this is such a letdown spot, especially holy shit, man. Can can Gian Gaynos get any more smoke blowing up his ass this week? It's been ridiculous where, yeah, it's well deserved, but these conversations of these guys taking the victory laps and being like, see, I told you you should have went one over Williams. It's like, Jesus Christ, man. These people are the fucking worst. These are the same people that were telling Bryce Young to be the number one pick for six months. They just they're no different. So, I don't think this is at all comparable to Bryce Young, CJ from last year. The gap between Caleb and Jaden Daniels wasn't that huge, but when you factor in age, it was a big deal. It's like, why would you take a guy who's two, three years older than Caleb Williams? It just didn't make sense when their their playing style is not that much different. So, yeah, for this matchup, Chad, you know, I get the hesitation, the fear that I have right now with this Arizona team because something just seems off for this number. But a three and a half, we think Arizona is a good team. We think they're a playoff team. If they are, this is a game they should smack the hell out of those Washington team after that type of game. So,”
WSH 42, ARI 14 — Commanders routed Cardinals 42-14; Arizona -3.5 busts by a wide margin.
“I am. No. I love the chargers. My whole hesitation, I think you know it, is this was eight and a half. We both bet it. I don't know if you bet it eight and half or got it eight, but it was like it was at a really nice number. Now it's down to seven and a half. I'll bet it again with you. Like, I love this number. I love this spot. I'll put in the contest, and it's really about Mahomes and this Chiefs team.”
KC 17, LAC 10 — Chiefs beat Chargers 17-10; Los Angeles +7.5 covers, losing by only 7.
“we're basically betting on last possession. Our guy, Lamar, has got it. He drives a field, and our 80 year old kicker, Justin Tucker, kicks one through for us. We cover this number. Like, because this He has found technique, and he's coming back to us. This just feels like such a sharp number. Like, there's a reason they're holding it here at two and a half, and, Chad knows as well. Like, same reason I went to Bet Lamar last week. You got him under three. If you have him under a field goal, he's twenty three and seven against the spread in his career. So I just blindly gotta keep betting this spot. I mean, it just made me so much money over the years, and I just keep doing it.”
BAL 35, BUF 10 — Ravens routed Bills 35-10; Baltimore -2.5 covers by a wide margin.
“to claim your prize. Let's get to it. One of the games we talked about on Sunday. Normally, we don't dig into a Thursday night game, but it's Tuesday, Thursday night. Dallas at the New York Giants. Current line is four and a half. You said right away, bet this, and it was at five and a half. You were worried it was gonna go up. I know wise guys have this number around six or seven. It's actually come down. Brandon Anderson also highlighted this in the hot read segment on the overnight pod on Sunday he does with Evan Abrams. I love that segment. I bet it at four and a half. Yeah. I bet it too. And I think it's just a little professional money came, and it took the Giants, especially on the money line.”
DAL 20, NYG 15 — Cowboys beat Giants 20-15 on Thursday Night Football; Dallas -4.5 covers by 0.5.
“and a passing offense that can move the ball downfield. So I think that's why the professionals are coming on this Bucks team where this number should be closer to a one, maybe a pick. Now it's up to two and a half. Me and you talk a time out key number that is. We'll we'll grab that number. And then I open up the action app, and it's basically all the money, all the tickets right now early are on the eagle side. So it's like, maybe this goes up to three, but I know the professionals that are coming on this Bucks team. It's just a nice spot to take them after that loss. And this Eagles team, I do think they're good, but like you just had all those injuries, at what point did that come back around? Like, I just I don't see how they're gonna move the ball with third, fourth string receivers where they've already been struggling moving the ball. Not moving the ball, I should say, but finishing these drives. Right? They're a team that they're, like, one for five or two for six on on fourth downs this season, And I think he's up to two or three red zone turnovers now, Jalen Hurts. So as good as the Eagles have looked and beat two and one, there's a lot of bad this team has produced. Is this a game we're putting on our list? Like, to me, we're not putting Denver and the Jets on there right now. I definitely bet it. Like, Tampa's on one of my five. It is.”
TB 33, PHI 16 — Buccaneers beat Eagles 33-16; Tampa Bay +2.5 covers easily.
“But I do really love the charges in this spot. Divisional game at plus eight. You know, this is like you just said, this is such a horrible spot in game. We take this number.”
KC 17, LAC 10 — Chiefs beat Chargers 17-10; Los Angeles +8 covers, losing by only 7.
“You know I have the one favorite. Well, yeah, we'll see we'll see. Bay at Tennessee Tennessee minus one and a half now. Yeah. Like, I decided I fell in love with Tennessee after, you know, three days of research. I saw the line got to two and a half, and it was a two and a half minus one fifteen. So I was nervous the line was gonna go back up to three, and so I rushed to bet the two and a half.”
GB 30-14 TEN — Packers beat Titans 30-14; Titans margin -16 fails to cover -2.5 (ESPN Week 3 scoreboard).
“Our week three boosted underdog parlay in deference to my BFF Simon Hunter. We are going with the Arizona cardinals and the Minnesota Vikings.”
DET 20-13 ARI; MIN 34-7 HOU — Parlay busts: Cardinals lost to Lions 13-20 (ML loss); Vikings beat Texans 34-7 (ML win) (ESPN Week 3 scoreboard).
“Keep it simple, stupid. I'm a go, Lamar, Ravens. I I just can't see them start over three, so I'm gonna take the minus one.”
BAL 28-25 DAL — Ravens beat Cowboys 28-25; Ravens margin +3 covers -1 (ESPN Week 3 scoreboard).
“Well, I'm gonna make this Simon Says just in case it does. My god. Simon Says plus three and a half for Atlanta. Give it to me.”
KC 22-17 ATL — Chiefs beat Falcons 22-17; Falcons margin -5 fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN Week 3 scoreboard).
“Buffalo is a five and a half point favorite. Jags are o and two according to ESPN's FBI and the Bill Barnwell column. 23% chance to make the playoffs. You and I, Simon, have struggled with Trevor Lawrence. Did not go the direction we thought it would go in in year three. He's now got this huge contract, and you and I have been struggling to identify statistically what we see on the field, which is he's not great in the red zone. He doesn't have great touch. He's not very accurate. The chemistry between him and Doug Peterson still isn't fantastic the way we want it to be. Barlow pointed this out in his column. In the quick passing game, which is throws under two and a half seconds, which Doug Peterson loves, Trevor Lawrence's completion percentage is last in the league on these throws. His 4.4 yards per attempt is thirtieth. You know who he's ahead of? Bryce Young and Will Leavis. Jeez. In the red zone, twenty eighth in expected points last year, twenty ninth so far this year. This brings statistical evidence to everything we've been saying about Trevor Lawrence. And yet and yet, Simon Yeah. I gotta bet the Jacks, and I'm making them my exact decision. Oh god. A choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Now you have your orders. Execute them. Executive decision. Yeah. This is we're supposed to play this number and play this spot. So I have it at three and a half. Getting two points of value in this Jaguars team.”
BUF 47-10 JAX — Bills beat Jaguars 47-10; Jaguars margin -37 fails to cover +5.5 (ESPN Week 3 scoreboard).
“So, we'll take the six right now. How does this not just keep going up, though? Right? I think people are starting to believe a little bit in Cleveland Watson after he played pretty well against that Jaguars team where I'm coming from other way. I think the Jaguars just had nothing in that game. I don't even think Watson played that great. I think just altogether, that Jaguars team looked like they had nothing. I'll I'll take the desperate Giants team here.”
NYG 21-15 CLE — Giants beat Browns 21-15; Giants margin +6 covers +6 (ESPN Week 3 scoreboard).
“So I'll I'll take the plus three with Arizona here.”
DET 20-13 ARI — Lions beat Cardinals 20-13; Cardinals margin -7 fails to cover +3 (ESPN Week 3 scoreboard).
“I'm grabbing Tennessee now minus two against Green Bay. Grabbing the saints right now plus two and a half against the eagles.”
GB 30-14 TEN — Packers beat Titans 30-14; Titans margin -16 fails to cover -2 (ESPN Week 3 scoreboard).
“Easiest one right now is the saints are plus two and a half against the eagles. So I was looking at that, but I wanted to see You know that sticks. People are coming on the Eagles, especially if they wipe the floor with this Atlanta team. So that's one, like, Chad was about to say. We could wait and see on that. Right? Maybe the Eagles do win big, and we can get a plus three, but there's something fishy about that Eagles line in general. I think you were on it earlier this week when you talked how you, like, kinda liked Atlanta. So I'm gonna grab the two and a half just in case the Eagles do somehow lose this game and this this number does drop down to a pick.”
PHI 15-12 NO — Eagles beat Saints 15-12; Saints margin -3 fails to cover +2.5 (ESPN Week 3 scoreboard).
“And I I gotta do it, man. I gotta grab the raiders minus seven against the panthers.”
CAR 36-22 LV — Panthers beat Raiders 36-22; Raiders margin -14 fails to cover -7 (ESPN Week 3 scoreboard).
“I'm hoping the cowboys dip down to five and a half because that would be probably my biggest bet of the weekend. But right now, have a decent amount of six.”
DAL 19, NO 44 — Saints beat Cowboys 44-19; Cowboys -6 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“So you're betting the Jets? I bet them. I took them in my minus three and a half. Once I got to three and a half, was like, alright. I'll I'll take this number here.”
TEN 17, NYJ 24 — Jets beat Titans 24-17; Jets -3.5 spread covers (ESPN box score).
“But Green Bay, you know, they reviewed as one of the better teams in all football. And, you know, just because they lost Jordan Love, we expect LaFleur to kinda figure this out on the fly. Right? I mean, their run blocking was incredible against the eagles. I think that will be able to translate against this Colts team that just gave up, you know, over a 150 yards to Houston running. Right? So, there's a couple of things I like here, but I think you're right. Right? The the pros, they've kinda dug in here because of LaFleur leaving the door open for Love maybe playing in this game. Right? That that to me is what the movement is. So, me and Chad are taking this on the show at two and a half. You can grab it if you want.”
GB 16, IND 10 — Packers beat Colts 16-10; Packers +2.5 spread covers (ESPN box score).
“Love Cincy, especially if can get Cincy still 5 and a half.”
KC 26, CIN 25 — Chiefs beat Bengals 26-25; Bengals +5.5 spread covers (ESPN box score).
“We're not gonna let the two and a half scare us off just like Green Bay. Like, I I like both these ugly dogs here. I'm still gonna take Denver. The the public perception, though, that, you know, this Pittsburgh team, they're gonna be able to travel this defense.”
PIT 13, DEN 6 — Steelers beat Broncos 13-6; Broncos +2.5 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“So if I get it, if my fans don't want to bet it, but I'm going to give them out my money line around Rob, and I just – the value is going to be too high on the Panthers to win outright not to take them against the Chargers at home. Okay, and your – Derek Brown is out for the year, defensive lineman. Right, he is out for the year. That's brutal. Yep. Meniscus injury will require surgery, and it will determine the exact timeline, but done for the year. Carolina on the money line right now is plus 240, home against the Chargers.”
CAR 3, LAC 26 — ESPN's 2024 Week 2 scoreboard lists CAR 3, LAC 26; the stored lost grade is correct.
“So it's just like, OK, I'll take Penix then 80 to one and I'll take their under. And if I do want to bet them to win this division, we'll wait three weeks just just in case they did lose this game. Now, you know, they have the Eagles in Kansas City. Then I was going to get back on board. If Penix isn't the guy they're going to put in after that Chiefs game or before, I don't know if I'm going to get on board with Kirk Cousins, man. It just it don't look right. And I think we can all agree, like even even if you want to make fun of Kirk and say he's just a 500 quarterback, he was pretty good. Like when it was all going well for Kirk he was a great facilitator of an offense And that was not who we saw in Atlanta And you know it not going to get any easier right He about to go against two really good defensive lines And, you know, Chris Jones, who goes up the middle, and Jalen Carter, who likes to go up the middle, that's got to be a dream for them, knowing this guy can't get out of the middle. So it's going to be pretty interesting. And, you know, the Penix, I still think he's only down to 60-1 for offensive rookie of the year.”
NFL.com's 2024 Honors results confirm the stored lost grade. (Daniels took 49 of 50 first-place votes.)
“Yeah. That's where I'm at with it where it's like, you're gonna give me three and a half. I'll go with the public. I'll I'll take the Jets here, but I don't know if this will be one of our five. I don't know if this is one of our favorite favorites, but could be come Thursday. Because right now, I have bet it at minus three and a half, but, I'm just trying not to overreact too much to what happened to this Jets team against the 49ers. I feel like I'm properly reacting”
TEN 17, NYJ 24 — Jets beat Titans 24-17; Jets -3.5 spread covers (ESPN box score).
“you you said this game is lined right, but that you're also on the jaguars. So does that mean you're finding an edge in the jaguars? Or because you said you're betting it. Yeah. Because I had this at minus four. So to me Okay. Minus three, like, I like the value there. I I told you my fear is I talked to a bunch of professionals, and they're giving me all the reasons why they're back in Cleveland here. And, apparently, a bunch of trends point to it. And I found a couple of trends that did, but I'm I'm hoping again, Evan has an article about what these trends are because it's just like, I don't really see their reasoning for it. Like, they're”
CLE 18, JAX 13 — Browns beat Jaguars 18-13; Jaguars -3 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“But, yes, Simon says on the Bengals, I bet at plus six. You're betting at plus six. We're all betting at plus six.”
KC 26, CIN 25 — Chiefs beat Bengals 26-25; Bengals +6 spread covers (ESPN box score).
“It's Cincinnati plus six. Like, for a second, I forgot they were playing the chiefs and not the niners. Cincinnati plus six. Like It's probably gonna my Simon Says bet. I already took the six and a half. It's down to six. I'll take the six as well.”
KC 26, CIN 25 — Chiefs beat Bengals 26-25; Bengals +6 spread covers (ESPN box score).
“Yeah. I grabbed Colts minus three right now just in case it is Malik Willis.”
GB 16, IND 10 — Packers beat Colts 16-10; Colts -3 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“the Jets I've been betting for the last month where I really did think we wouldn't see Trent Williams until October. Him him coming back and his reasoning for coming back, they're very human. Right? He he saw his teammate almost lose his life, and it kinda put perspective for him. And he was just like, what am I doing here? Why am I staying home over a couple million where I need to be with my guys? So getting him back was a big deal. Hasn't really shifted my view of it. It's like I'm I bet it at 4 and a half. Now it's back up to 4 and a half. I still live at 4 and a half.”
SF 32, NYJ 19 — 49ers beat Jets 32-19; Jets +4.5 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm gonna go with the homework pick and take the Eagles at minus two and a half.”
PHI 34, GB 29 — Eagles beat Packers 34-29 in the Brazil opener; Eagles -2.5 spread covers (ESPN box score).
“I like the Jags here. Yeah. It's unfortunate, Chad. This was three and a half for three months. Some news came out that Waddle and Tyreek Hill were a little banged up, so the the number dipped down to three, two and a half in a couple of books. Now it's settled back into three. Even though those guys have been cleared for practice, and they're fully practicing, but how are we not gonna like the the Jaguars here? Right? We have to. The Jaguars,”
17-20 — Dolphins beat Jaguars 20-17 on Sep 8, 2024; Jacksonville's -3 margin exactly matches the +3 line (ESPN box score).
“Give me the colts plus two and a half. Put him in the contest. Let's go.”
27-29 — Texans beat Colts 29-27 on Sep 8, 2024; Indianapolis's -2 margin beats the +2.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Get give me the Raiders. I love this team over six and a half. They're minus one forty now towards the over.”
Raiders finished the 2024 season 4-13, well under the 6.5 win total (ESPN standings). (Las Vegas Raiders 2024: 4-13)
“Same division, Denver Broncos over five and a half.”
Broncos finished the 2024 season 10-7, over the 5.5 win total (ESPN standings). (Denver Broncos 2024: 10-7)
“Fantasy number wise, could it be fun with Jefferson? Sure. But we're talking win totals. They're over under. The under right now is plus one thirty. I love the under six and a half for this team. Like, I've taken their adjusting under.”
Vikings finished the 2024 season 14-3, far over the 6.5 win total (bet was the under) (ESPN standings). (Minnesota Vikings 2024: 14-3)
“I love the eagles. Eagles over 10 and a half. I just think this division's weak.”
Eagles finished the 2024 season 14-3, over the 10.5 win total (ESPN standings). (Philadelphia Eagles 2024: 14-3)
“Go. Give me the lines 10 and a half over. Hello, Detroit. You've won my heart.”
Lions finished the 2024 season 15-2, over the 10.5 win total (ESPN standings). (Detroit Lions 2024: 15-2)
“Do we not take the Chiefs over 11 and a half?”
Chiefs finished the 2024 season 15-2, over the 11.5 win total (ESPN standings). (Kansas City Chiefs 2024: 15-2)
“But I I'd just take they're over at 10 and a half Cincinnati Bengals.”
Bengals finished the 2024 season 9-8, under the 10.5 win total (ESPN standings). (Cincinnati Bengals 2024: 9-8)
“What was your number on, NFC West combined wins? It probably moved because I did bet this early August. It was plus 400 for them to have the best best rec best record most wins, I should say.”
The NFC West combined for 34 wins (Rams 10, Seahawks 10, 49ers 8, Cardinals 6); the NFC North led all divisions with 45 combined wins (ESPN standings).
“for me, the Cowboys, everything's so negative there that, you know, the fact that I can still get the Eagles on minus one twenty five at bet $3.06 5, I love that value here. So if you if you again, if you wanna throw in the Chiefs and all these, I totally get it. Like, I love the chiefs so much. You're gonna pair them with the eagles. I believe it's plus one fifty if you pair them and to parlay them to win their division. So, yeah, give me the eagles. I just they're the only team I have in this division over 10 wins. Like, I have the cowboys under at the nine and a half. So, yeah, very confident in this pick and them coming out of this division winning it, Chad.”
The Eagles won the NFC East at 14-3, the best record in the division (ESPN standings).
“Who we betting? Obviously, you know where I'm going. West Virginia money line against Penn State. I think they're up to, what, eight and a half as a dog.”
12-34 — Penn State beat West Virginia 34-12 on Aug 31, 2024, so the WVU moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Not that the Aaron Donald stuff sucked the air out of the room, but it did a little bit for me, Chad. And then you add in the top that this is most likely Stafford's last year for the Rams. Like, it seems like they're kinda cooking the books and getting ready to kinda you know? Not saying they're one of the teams like the raiders or the jets who who won Dak Prescott, but that's what you hear behind the scenes. Like, these are the teams that have been chatting that, you know, that's the plan for next year, right, is is try to go after Dak. And it sounds crazy, but they they turned Stafford's deal into a one year deal. So Yep. I don't wanna make it sound like it's all good for the Rams. Like, this is by far the best team the second best team in this division. I thought that last year. This year, it's a little different. Like, I actually do like again, we're gonna do I like the seahawks. I like Arizona. So, it's it's easy to see this team. You know, some people think they can win it. I also could see this team being the last place team in this division. Like, a lot there's a lot of options on the table for this team right now, and it's all because of the unknown. Like, the fact they lost, you know, their their DC, that's I I I wanna act like it's not a big deal, but there's a reason he got that job in Atlanta. Like, he took a young group of guys last year turned them into something special. Now he's gone. And, we still believe in Sean McVeigh. Right? That's the whole point of betting this line right now. It's like, I I didn't bet them last year because I knew Puka was gonna be this incredible sleeper. It was like, okay. I have Stafford, and I had, you know, McVeigh at six and a half wins. That was crazy to me. I was getting butchered for, I don't know, nine weeks. They were three and six, and, like, literally, it was never any amount of people just just killing me. They went seven to one the end of the season. Like, this that that's how you want your better teams to be. Right? It takes a minute to get going. Then once they figure it out I mean, Stafford had them rolling on offense. Like, they were so good towards the end of the year. He was barely even passing the ball. They could just run the ball down your throat, and there was nothing you could do. So eight and half, Chad, I'll I'll bet it with you. I like their over, and it's like an over will take just because if he does stay healthy, Stafford,”
Rams finished the 2024 regular season 10-7 and won the NFC West, well over the 8.5 win total (ESPN standings). (Los Angeles Rams 2024: 10-7)
“That's how I feel about the cardinals here. Like, this is the team that I I'm betting them 13 to one to win this division.”
Cardinals finished 6-11 in 2024; the Rams won the NFC West at 10-7 (ESPN standings), so the Cardinals futures bet lost.
“I mean, I have I I definitely have three times the amount on the Chiefs to win this division. Like, that's definitely my biggest bet.”
Chiefs finished the 2024 regular season 15-2 and won the AFC West (ESPN standings), the NFL's best record.
“you clearly love the raiders a second ago when I brought up Gardner Minshew. Like I said, strength is scheduled ninth hardest. 19 is their offensive line rank. Top 10 defensive line largely because of Max Crosby. So it's about Gardner Minshew. Do they get over six and a half with Gardner Minshew? Yeah. I love this team.”
Raiders finished the 2024 regular season 4-13 (ESPN standings), well under 6.5 wins; the over lost. (Raiders 2024: 4-13)
“Max Crosby plus 700 to win defensive player of the year. I love that bet.”
Pat Surtain II (Broncos) won the 2024 AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year award, not Maxx Crosby (Wikipedia/AP award record).
“There's nothing I love more, Chad, and two guys loving the chargers in August when Herbert just got out of a walking boot two days ago. I mean, this is what I live for. This team, I've taken a large position on them to be the worst in this division, actually.”
Chargers finished the 2024 regular season 11-6, second in the AFC West; the Raiders (4-13) finished last (ESPN standings), not the Chargers.
“this year, I I feel way way confident betting this number. The only negative here is we bet one we bet plus one thirty, plus one twenty, I mean, for the last two months. And then just in the last three weeks, this line is now up to minus one twenty, like you just said, a lot of books. So Right. You missed that a little bit. Still love the over, obviously, 10 and a half. Don't hate it if you wanna put 15 to one, but I liked I did what Chad did last year.”
Eagles finished the 2024 regular season 14-3 (ESPN standings), clearing 10.5 wins; the over won. (Eagles 2024: 14-3)
“Eagles Chiefs matchup Super Bowl, I got it at 40 to one. So if if you wanna do something fun like that, you can do that if you don't like taking the 15 to one.”
40-22 — Super Bowl LIX, played February 9, 2025, was Eagles vs Chiefs; Philadelphia won 40-22 (ESPN). The Eagles-Chiefs matchup bet hit.
“I I put another bet on them against the Bengals. I think it was 55 to one, Eagles, Bengals. So that that's a fun way to bet that stuff if you want longer odds.”
Bengals finished the 2024 regular season 9-8 and missed the playoffs (ESPN standings). Super Bowl LIX was Eagles vs Chiefs, not Eagles vs Bengals, so the matchup bet lost.
“If you listen earlier, I like the Chiefs. Obviously, I'm betting on the three peat. I love to bet on history. Eagles Chiefs matchup Super Bowl, I got it at 40 to one.”
40-22 — Chiefs lost Super Bowl LIX to the Eagles, 40-22, on February 9, 2025 (ESPN), missing the three-peat.
“I wanna say I I've spoken to every bookmaker that, you know, in the Greater Tristate area over the last two months, it's all under money on this team. They've just been getting tons and tons of under under money on this win total. So this is gonna be on the the sports book's larger position on win totals. They're gonna need this teams over. I just think they had hanged the bad number, Chad. Like, to me, this 10 and a half made sense last year when our this division was so weak. Yeah. The the division feels like it's improved, like, tremendously from the commanders to the giants. So, you know, to me, 10 and a half, still too high of a number. I I do like that under. And, obviously, we're not touching anything for them divisionally or Super Bowl odds. This is a weird everything about this is a weird public number to me. The 19 to one is a public number. The plus one fifty is public. The 10 and a half is public. It's all screaming bookmakers are just looking to take advantage of people who love the cowboys.”
Cowboys finished the 2024 regular season 7-10 (ESPN standings), under 10.5 wins; the under won. (Cowboys 2024: 7-10)
“Yeah. Giants over six and a half. And if if you really make me bet on Washtenaw, I'm just slightly towards the under at six wins.”
Giants finished the 2024 regular season 3-14 (ESPN standings), well under 6.5 wins; the over lost. (Giants 2024: 3-14)
“So 10 and a half is plus one thirty. The professionals clearly like this team's under because they believe this division is better. Right? With Aaron Rodgers stepping up and Miami ascending from last year, I could see where they've taken that position. Again, they play a first place schedule. It's it's tough to get those wins when you have a first place schedule. I got them right at 11 wins, Chad. So it's not that big of an advantage. I got it by half a half a game. But at a plus number, I'll take that bet, but I don't I haven't bet anything on division wise yet, Chad. I have not touched their division odds yet at plus one seventy. I think it should be plus closer to plus 200 just like the jets. Right? I kinda have these teams right there by each other. So, to me, I've not taken position on the Bills, division odds yet, but I have had bet the over 10 and a half.”
Bills finished the 2024 regular season 13-4 (ESPN standings), clearing 10.5 wins; the over won. (Bills 2024: 13-4)
“but a nine and a half, I'll take it. And you can actually take this because it it's minus one fifty nine and a half. If you want a plus number, I have no issue taking a 10 and half bet with this team either because it's just another team I really like their win total.”
Jets finished the 2024 regular season 5-12 (ESPN standings), well under 9.5 wins; the over lost. (Jets 2024: 5-12)
“I I've done it plus one thirty five, plus one forty.”
Jets finished the 2024 regular season 5-12 (ESPN standings), well under 10.5 wins; the over lost. (Jets 2024: 5-12)
“So, again, not one of my bigger bets. Like, my biggest bet still bangles to win this division”
Bengals finished 9-8, third in the AFC North behind the Ravens (12-5) and Steelers (10-7) (ESPN standings); Cincinnati did not win the division.
“this is a team that I understand why people wanna blindly bet this. It's it's eight and a half to the win total. It's plus one twenty if you wanna take the over, minus one fifty to the under. I'm gonna take the under.”
Steelers finished the 2024 regular season 10-7 (ESPN standings), clearing 8.5 wins; the under lost. (Steelers 2024: 10-7)
“The over 10 and a half, I'll take it. Like, it's minus one thirty, so it's got a little bit of juice to it, but I have no mind paying them. Them as their favorite in this division, they should be. Like, them the fact they're not minus one ten, to me, that means there's value there. The plus they're plus one fifty. I'll take that value just because people do believe in a team. We're gonna talk about a little bit Green Bay. So I am getting a plus number just because Green Bay is the anchor in this division right now. They're the new sexy fun team. So to me, I'm getting a free free points here, free a free, you know, nice bet here on this Lions team that should be closer to 11 and a half.”
The Lions finished the 2024 regular season 15-2, easily clearing the 10.5 win total on the over (ESPN final standings). (Lions 2024: 15-2)
“Is boiling so high now. It's just it's crazy. So to me, I have to bet the under nine and a half, but they're not my favorite under team. It's kinda like Green Bay. Right? I'm just throwing a little bit on their under. Same with Green Bay. The fourth team we're gonna talk about here, that's that's the team I love for an under, but this division has just gone from you know, we didn't really know what they were last year. Right? It was Kirk Cousins division. Jared Goff is kinda shocked. We didn't really know we had Jordan Love and really know we have Justin Fields to now this is a position this this division in a year or two could be just the juggernaut in football. Right? If if Goff stays what he's doing and Jordan Love keeps ascending and and Caleb Williams works out and JJ works out, wow. Like, this is a really tough division with some great coach. And, again, we talked about Ivithroe is the worst coach in this division, and it's not really close. Right? We have the most doubts of him compared to the Vikings, Green Bay, and Detroit. So it's just it the hype is too high at this point. Right? You just can't do it. It's just not logical to bet this number, especially their overwin total. I even though it's at a it's at a minus one fifty, minus $1.45 right now, the under. 9 and a half for an under for this team at that price, I'm willing to eat the vig and the juice on that just because, again, it opened at 7 and a half, and it's gone up two games just on hype. So I I just have to take that position, Chad.”
The Bears finished the 2024 regular season 5-12, staying well under the 9.5 win total (ESPN final standings). (Bears 2024: 5-12)
“Panthers over, four and a half. If nobody takes anything else from this show, that's what they have to take.”
The Panthers finished the 2024 regular season 5-12, clearing the 4.5 win total on the over (ESPN final standings). (Panthers 2024: 5-12)
“Meanwhile, their defensive line is seventh graded in the NFL. It's all there. And then you add in top that we have such high respect for their head coach. It's like, this is these are the kind of teams we love and do about this. Shane Steichen, Simon. Like, we love this guy. Love it. We like, we love him so much because we realized halfway through the eagle season how much of a genius he was and what he was doing with that team because that No. They definitely they definitely picked the wrong guy. And, like, what he did with Anthony Richardson to start the season and then what he was able to do with Gardner Minshew throughout the rest of the year Adjust on the fly. Adjust on the fly. Totally opposite guys. Yeah. So, yeah, we love this team. Love it. Love it. If you haven't understood it, we're in on the cult to plus three ten to win our division.”
Texans 10-7, Colts 8-9 — The Texans went 10-7 and won the AFC South; the Colts finished 8-9 in second place (ESPN final 2024 standings).
“week one, me and Chad have bet the colts at home against Houston.”
Texans 29, Colts 27 — The Texans beat the Colts 29-27 in Week 1 of the 2024 season on Sept 8, 2024; the Colts' moneyline bet lost (ESPN box score).
“don't I've I've taken a little bit on their over. I've not bet them divisionally. I've not bet them future market for Super Bowl either. So I think Chad's being right about it, though. I might have a little bit of recency buy ins to it. I just don't think they've done enough defensively to give me faith that they can really stop two other quarterbacks. I have a lot of faith in this division. So, yeah, it's all once again, it's all think it's all gonna be put on Trevor Lawrence's shoulders, and we can see we'll see if he can hold it up. Right now, he held up one year, the next year, did not. So it's gonna be interesting how this team performs this coming season. Jags are 50 to one to win the Super Bowl. Wow. I didn't know it got that low. They were 40 to one, so they've dropped. Plus two seventy five to win the division. Eight and a half is their season win total, so you've got a little bit of a taste on the Just because I have them at nine and eight.”
The Jaguars finished the 2024 regular season 4-13, well under the 8.5 win total, so the over lost (ESPN final standings). (Jaguars 2024: 4-13)
“Right now, the lions, 12 to one to win the Super Bowl. The Texans, 19 to one to win the Super Bowl. So I go to you, Simon Hunter, are you more likely to bet the lions to win the Super Bowl or the Texans to win the Super Bowl? I'm gonna go lions even though it's not a great price just because I don't need to face my homes.”
Commanders 45, Lions 31 — The Lions lost the NFC Divisional playoff to the Commanders 45-31 on Jan 18, 2025, and the Eagles beat the Chiefs 40-22 to win Super Bowl LIX on Feb 9, 2025 — Detroit did not win the Super Bowl (ESPN).
“very well until his injury. So we'll see. Home dog in that now the one thing I will say, which is an interesting thing, India is six and one against the spread in week two last seven years. So this has worked absolutely perfectly in the sense that they've started crappy, and they've bounced back. And it's almost happened every single year. So we'll see. I just wanna just wanna say the line movement could be based off Anthony Richardson. Apparently, he's resting right now. Right? He's not throwing completely. People are a little worried that that shoulder is not fully healed. So a lot of pros I've talked to, they just went right away. As soon as they saw that he was working on throwing lefty because he didn't wanna throw righty that day because there was a rest day. I know some guys who just took a position on the other side because just like, dude, this dude, he might not just be right ever again. Like, that's kind of thing where you kinda have that shoulder injury and guys don't come back right from it. So I get the hesitation. I'm just I'm not worried about it. I don't think Chad is either. If this gets to three, we already liked it. It's gonna we'll go down with the ship, but that's another thing to remember, Chad. We won't get pissed at Anthony Richardson if we do not cover. We gotta we gotta ride that second trend. Right? Take them next week if if we Yeah. Got I bet it at one and a half.”
29-27 — Texans beat Colts 29-27 in Week 1 (ESPN); Colts lost outright, missing the +1.5 cover.
“Because me and Chad, we're on the three and a half already of the Rams, but luckily, McVeigh plays pretty well.”
26-20 — Lions beat Rams 26-20 in OT (ESPN); Rams lost by 6, missing the +3.5 cover.
“The rams ended up being our big balls bet of the week. Because they're again, he didn't even say it. McVeigh is a great week one trend too. Like, even last year, we they covered for us week one. So that's I mean, that Campbell stat scares me, man. Because me and Chad, we're on the three and a half already of the Rams, but luckily, McVeigh plays pretty well. Right? He coaches pretty well. We've won. He does. I think he's either, like, second or third best on that list.”
26-20 — Lions beat Rams 26-20 in OT (ESPN); Rams lost by 6, missing the +3.5 cover.
“I'm gonna bet them to win in six. So four two series price, you can get that at plus, you know, 1,000 plus 1,200 some books. That to me is a fun bet to make here on Dallas.”
4-1 — Celtics beat Mavericks 4-1 in the 2024 NBA Finals (Wikipedia, citing the series result), so the Mavericks-in-6 bet lost.
“it's given people this false security, this false hope that Jordan Love is the next Aaron Rodgers. And this Green Bay team is, you know, an easy bet to make the playoffs this year where they fit every criteria of young, inexperienced team that got to the playoffs too fast the year before. Now they're over nine and a half as a negative number, which means, again I mean, it might be minus one forty at this point. I can bet them plus one twenty, plus one thirty to the under nine and a half. Plus, to me, this jumps out as in a young team that just overachieved the year before.”
The Packers finished the 2024 regular season 11-6 (Wikipedia), going over the 9.5 win total and busting the under. (11-6)
“If you wanna make us one of our bets too, I love this pick, especially a plus three for the Steelers.”
18-10 — Steelers beat Falcons 18-10 (ESPN) — won outright, easily covering +3.
“The the over to me is the play there.”
20-17 — Dolphins beat Jaguars 20-17 (ESPN); combined 37 points, under the 49.5 total.
“Simon Says. Hey. New York Giants. Shocker. I know. I love this spot so much for the Giants. The Vikings team, people talking about them. I just can't believe this number is what it is. Like, our options right now, they might be starting JJ McCarthy is first start on the road in New York or Sam Darnold, a guy who saw ghosts in this exact stadium. It's like, I can't believe this is the number. It's a dream. It's just the hate has gone too far for the Giants and Daniel Jones. We all agree. He is not a good quarterback. And any, like, we all agree. He's not the guy. Right? Like, they overpaid him. I understand, like, why they wanna get rid of him and why they try to move on from this offseason. But he's on the team, and when he plays, he actually plays pretty well in this offense. Like, surprisingly does alright. Now for his first time in his career, he has a number one receiver. Like, they took a top receiver in the draft. I just don't think the Giants are be as bad as everyone's making an opt to be. Like, this number to me is just insane. And I just can't believe I can't believe people are betting on the Vikings here on the on the road. It's crazy to me. Like, I was hoping this number was gonna flip that so much love was gonna come on this Vikings team. But, just in the last two days, the reports are coming out there that JJ McCarthy is just he's been horrible in their practices. Like, they're doing seven on seven drills, Chad, and apparently, he's scrambling, which if you're a head coach and you're doing a seven on seven drill and you've seen your QB continuously scramble, that's gotta be an absolute nightmare. It's like, oh my god. This this is literally designed for him just to be passing. So, yeah. I I can't believe this is only minus one. It's it's it really is a gift. I I know the Giants, they're depleted. They're not that good of a team. I understand where all that's gonna come from. Minnesota on paper a better team. I just think overall, there's a big advantage to this Giants team facing either a rookie making his first start on the road or Sam Darnold. I'm a little surprised this is your Simon Says. Completely agree with you. Yeah. Me too. Because I hate I I hate to bet this, but it's like, this is insane.”
28-6 — Vikings routed Giants 28-6 (ESPN); Giants lost outright, missing the -1 cover.
“Las Vegas at LA Chargers, Jim Harbaugh debut at home, minus three and a half point favorites. Not a massive feel for this game. I don't have a strong opinion one way or the other. Yeah. I just I know I'm gonna hate myself for doing it, but I took the under. I just I had to bet it. It's like, I I even though, like, I I might regret it, but I just view this Raiders identity is that the identity is that there's the defense, 12 personnel, running the ball kinda team. Like, that's just my view of what they're gonna try to be this season, this Raiders team. And Harbaugh is more than happy to just go into the mud and run the ball 40 times. Like, he doesn't care that it's Herbert. He just wants to win every game by one point. Like, that's why I love a coach like him. He does not care that whatever Herbert is so great at, it's like, no. We're we're here to win, not see you throw amazing passes downfield one out of every five connects. It's like that whole thing we saw with Herbert, those old days are kinda gone. He's gonna kinda go into that Andrew Luck role. Right? Andrew Luck at Stanford, you go back and watch it. Once they had weapons and he felt comfortable with Andrew Luck, they really opened the offense up, and they're happy to push the ball downfield. But the early days, he really relies on him learning the system and just running the ball. So, you know, there was a couple of 40 fives out there. Couple 40 fours are still available. The our sponsors here, bet three six five, have a 43 and a half. You take it if you want, but try to find the 44. That's that's a key number. So I definitely like the under in this matchup.”
22-10 — Chargers beat Raiders 22-10 (ESPN); combined 32 points, well under the 44 total.
“10 and a half win total, juice to the under, plus one twenty to win the East. I would fade the cowboys right now, Simon. Yeah. It feels like Jerry Jones is in shock. I I honestly think he's in shock from that Green Bay Playoff Game, and he hasn't come out of it where something something changed in him from that game where instead of going forward or going backwards, he's done nothing. They're just spinning their tires right now, the cowboys. And I think this is more says so much about Dak Prescott. And Chad knows all all I do on here is take heat. When I said that Dak Prescott was not a top 10 quarterback last year and people were like, oh, it's a homer homer pick, everything you're saying, my exact reason was he is going to have an incredible regular season, and then he is going to do nothing in the playoffs. And he will not take any blame. People will blame the head coach. They'll blame the offensive skill positions. Finally, finally, this year, I feel like people are holding back to the fire. Like, he's taking some accountability where he's it's him. Like, as much as people wanna put it everywhere else, he is what fell apart in that Green Bay game. I mean, you are the two seat at home against a very young Green Bay team in the seventh seat, and you got embarrassed. I mean, that was an embarrassing game. I mean, we watched that in a bar with all of our fans, Chad, and everyone five minutes in knew this game's over. I mean, it was before you even threw a pick six. It just felt like everything was going wrong for the Cowboys. So, people, if you wanna bet the Cowboys this year, go for it. But me and Chad begged you last year to bet them to win the division. It was it was an easy bet, this and year feels like the easy bet of you just fade the Cowboys. It's it's it's totally an in between year of the writing's on the wall. They are moving on from deck. This this to me feels like Jerry has already said as much without having to say anything. Because for the first time in my lifetime, they have done zero moves and zero ways if they try to benefit and make this team better. So, yeah, it's a long winded answer of saying, you can bet the under if you want. I'll bet the under, but, like, why would you bet anything for them? Future is divisional. What who is still out there that's betting this team's future long wise? So, yeah, interested to hear your opinion, but for me, this is just an easy stay away team or bet an under team. I just have zero faith in this cowboys team.”
The Dallas Cowboys finished the 2024 regular season 7-10, under the 10.5-win under line (NFL.com final standings). (7-10)
“The New York Giants, six and a half wins. This to me is a really interesting team. Obviously, they've changed dramatically. Daniel Jones, we don't really know what his future is. Barkley is gone. DeBaal, after being praised as a genius, now all of a sudden, wasn't a genius, and there was strife, and they're turning over their coaching staff. I have no opinion on this team right now. Simon, start us off. Yeah. I I bet them at whatever it was, a 130 to one for the Super Bowl feature when we did our show in February. Just a That's right. Just a I don't think they're gonna trade Daniel Jones, and these these odds were too high. And it's very telling. They haven't moved much since they've had Daniel Jones because that's the book kind of view of them. But, yeah, if you're gonna go with a crazy long shot team, how do you not bet this team? Like, these are this is probably the best offensive weapons. Even that Barkley left, this is probably the best offensive weapons Daniel Jones ever had on his Giants career. And, you know, last year, they won games with a third stringer that was living at home with his parents in Jersey. Like, team has talent, and Daniel Jones to me does have talent. We've seen that kid make big throws in a playoff game to beat Kirk Cousins. Like, it there are things there to like. So it's a buy a load team. So I'll I'll take the over six and a half.”
The New York Giants finished the 2024 regular season 3-14, well short of the 6.5-win over line (NFL.com final standings). (3-14)
“So, yeah, Eagles team over 10 and a half,”
The Philadelphia Eagles finished the 2024 regular season 14-3, clearing the 10.5-win over line (NFL.com final standings). (14-3)
“So, yeah, Eagles team over 10 and a half, [25:57] them to win the East.”
The Philadelphia Eagles won the 2024 NFC East with a 14-3 record.
“is the overpassing yards for Williams. If Williams goes over his 3,500 [33:03] passing yards or 3,600,”
Caleb Williams threw for 3,541 passing yards in his 2024 rookie season, clearing the 3,500-yard over line. (3,541 passing yards)
“Absolutely. Detroit, Simon's third best team overall in the NFL. 10 and a half wins, juice to the under. I I worry about this team. I worry that this is a team that was riding so high last year and had so many things go right for them. And I love Dan Campbell. We all believe Dan Campbell and this league is better for the media when Dan Campbell is in it. I worry about this team hitting the wall. Simon. Yeah. Don't overthink of people. They're bringing back their genius OC. They're bringing back their quarterback. Their rookies are gonna be better than they were last year. I mean, they have arguably a top three tight end. Ahmad St. Brown just resigned. It's it's all there. So, they attacked their defense. The defense is their weakness. They blew that game against the 49ers because their defense couldn't get any stops in that second half. They're going after it. I'm with Chad, though. Like, there's still questions about this Lions team, but, like, overall, this team is really good. They were I mean, couple couple plays away from absolutely smacking and dominating that 49ers team in San Francisco in the playoffs. Like, this is a really good team and a very veteran team at the key positions. They got veteran guys, defensive line, offensive line, and at quarterback, skill positions, a bunch of young kids. So, yeah, really quick. I would love to dive in more will this this upcoming offseason, more about Detroit. Just right now, if you're gonna make a bet, I'll I'll take the rover at 10 and a half.”
The Detroit Lions finished the 2024 regular season 15-2, crushing the 10.5-win over line (NFL.com final standings). (15-2)
“On to the, NFC West, the rams, eight and a half winch, juice to the over. We don't know the impact of Aaron Donald retiring, but at times, he was the thing that kept that defense together when they had nothing else. So I'm a little wary of this team even though I love everything about their offense. Simon, I'll start with you. I know you're always a backer of the rams or at least like what they tend to do. I know you like Stafford. Do you have any thoughts on this team? Any of the markets, eight and a half wins plus three fifty. Stafford, 25 to one win MVP. Jared Verse, first round pick, defensive end. Thoughts? Yeah. Didn't didn't take them on division. Didn't think the value was there. Well, last year, we were getting 10 to one at this point on them for the division. Now they're three to one, four to one. It's just the value is not there for how good the 49ers are and just how more of a complete team there. And Chad just said they lost the best defender in football. So, yeah, I'll take their over wins. We won't spend, again, too much time on it. But, yeah, it's a team that I had a ton of high hopes at end of the season.”
The Los Angeles Rams finished the 2024 regular season 10-7, clearing the 8.5-win over line (NFL.com final standings). (10-7)
“Alright. Last team, San Francisco 49ers. Simon just revealed there the top rated team in his team rankings in the NFL just ahead of the Eagles and the lions. Juiced to the under at 11 and a half wins. Brock Purdy, 14 to one to win MVP. Look. Last year, we were looking at Brock Purdy to win MVP at that number when it got to about week 10, I think, and we liked the number then. This team is tailor made for him to be a really good regular season quarterback and to him to for him to put up gaudy numbers and for them to win a lot of games. Danny, San Francisco 49ers could be the bears' biggest obstacle to winning it all. What a great NFC championship game matchup this how do you think niners fans will feel about being a nine and a half point underdog in that game? The niners are obviously an awesome team with an awesome coach, and I'm, like, the last person who's believing that the clock is gonna strike midnight on Brock Purdy because the value of what he can do is incredible. And for $1,000,000, it's the best value in the NFL. And I get why it's all successful, but I'm just like, at some point, the wheels are gonna come off. It doesn't make any damn sense. I just wouldn't invest in a team that has this much popularity behind it. Like, they're they're minus 200 to win the division, minus one ninety, one ninety five, whatever like, wherever you're shopping. Like, that's crazy when we're talking about Stafford and the value that and the the talent of the other teams in the division. So I just I don't think they're that good. They're very, very good, and they consistently prove me wrong. I don't know that I've lost more money on any other team in the NFL, the last two years than I have the San Francisco 49ers. Simon, you get the last word on the San Francisco 49ers. You're number one team in the NFL right now. Yeah. Pretty boring. I have number one team in football. So yeah. Take taking the rover, obviously. I mean, they're the most complete team”
The San Francisco 49ers finished the 2024 regular season 6-11, well short of the 11.5-win over line (NFL.com final standings). (6-11)
“So I just don't I don't see how the Patriots win more than one game in their division, Chad. It's just hard for me to get behind them stealing games where they've lost now Belichick, like the Belichick magic. As much as they wanted to hate on him and they needed to change, they're gonna see what that change feels like. So I'm with you on that one, Chad. This is this is a definitely an under eye bet, a five and a half.”
The New England Patriots finished the 2024 regular season 4-13, under the 5.5-win total (NFL.com final standings). (4-13)
“If the Jets overachieve this year, they are certainly a play for me at nine and a half wins. Little taste of Salad 14 to one. Yeah. I'll I'll give them both shit for the fact they wrote it out as Zach Wilson didn't go get Flacco. When Flacco wanted to go there, he's right down the street here in Haddonfield, New Jersey, like, literally an hour and a half drive from their facility, inexcusable. And that is why what you just touched on, they didn't draft a quarterback at pick 10. Like, they dropped down. They're happy to let JJ go to the Vikings because they know they're not gonna be here. I I really do think both of them thought they were gonna be fired last year if they didn't produce. But because Rogers got hurt, the owner right away was like, you know what? You get a freebie. I love betting these type of teams to win divisions, to go over their win totals. This is everyone knows. Everyone in that building knows this is it. Like, this this next year to two years is the window for Rogers, and then it's over. Rogers might come back and be half the man he was. That is better than any quarterback they've had for, let's say, twenty, thirty years. I mean, it is it's incredible how bad they are and how how much smarter and gift of an athlete he is than anyone they've ever had in that building. So he might not be the man he was after this injury. Right? His movement in the pocket, getting outside the pocket was already lacking heading into this major injury at his age. But we've seen it now. Like, medical technology has come so far. It might hinder him a little bit, but he is gonna be the general on that field. And they have so many weapons around. You saw I mean, Bryce Bryce Hall, like, we even talked about the skill positions they have on that team. It's incredible. So, yeah, people won't be shocked here. I love their over. Like, last year, I mean, you were all aboard fading them because they were just Yep. There was no value there. This year, we love it. Right? I love their win total over. I love them divisionally.”
The New York Jets finished the 2024 regular season 5-12, well short of the 9.5-win over line (NFL.com final standings). (5-12)
“The Bengals, we've we've seen this history of Joe Burrow, for some reason, keeps missing time in the preseason, and then they come out on a slow start. Like, this has happened multiple times with them. If you want, you can just wait on that type of future market with their Super Bowl futures now because you've already missed a good number. Six to one him TD passing leader. I don't know. It feels like they run the ball a decent amount, and they get in the red zone. So that's another bet that's a little weird where it's that low. But me and you, we love Joe Burrow. Like, we I think we both said we probably have him as the second guy we trust the most behind Mahomes in a game. So I don't want Cici fans that feel like we're bashing you guys here. It's just it's the question mark with Joe. Can Joe stay on the field and not take these unnecessary hits? So, don't mind. It's juice towards the over. I I love this team to win this division. Love this team towards their 10 and a half over. It's just they're they're the most complete best team right now,”
The Cincinnati Bengals finished the 2024 regular season 9-8, short of the 10.5-win over line (NFL.com final standings). (9-8)
“Baltimore Ravens, I don't like anything about it. It's Baltimore, gentlemen. The gods will not save you. 11 and a half wins, juice to the under. Lamar, 10 to one MVP. He's not gonna repeat. Everything about the Ravens right now is overinflated. Yeah. And, I mean, no shocker to any Ravens fan or people that just know how we operate here, but they're an easy team to fade this year. They've they've lost so many good veterans from that team from the previous season. They just haven't replenished because the Lamar money's kicking in. Like, this is they they just paid him a huge contract last year in the off season. Like, that's a real thing. So, Derrick Henry signing was cool. Like, that's seeing him and Lamar together, that's really cool. But I don't know how much better he is than some other guy at his age with all those miles on the tread. Like, he's a great player, but he he doesn't really move the needle where, you know, when Eagles got Saquon, that that kind of moved the needle a little bit for him with the Eagles where, you know, Derrick Henry is cool, but I don't know if it's that big of a deal. So, yeah, easy team to bet for regression. You don't have to do it, but I bet them to miss the playoffs. I'm not saying it's one of my favorite bets, but there's a couple books out there, $2.75, 300. Bet three six five is $2.60 for them to miss the playoffs. I like that value on this team. Just would expect them being a hit away on Lamar from their season just falling apart. And it's a guy who you know, he had a couple plays last year. He just got out of it, it's like, he's gonna get caught on one of these. And, that's definitely a team that you bet for aggression, especially in that division that they didn't have to face this really dominant Joe Burrill team. Even Pittsburgh, in a game they lost to them, it was like, that's just the the Pittsburgh style playing them. So there's just a couple couple ways they can get to the under. The fact that it's 11 and a half as well, Chad, that's that's such a high win total. So Massive number. Yes. In that division. So, yeah. The the under again, you can you can bet the misplayoffs with me. That wouldn't be my biggest bet. The under 11 and a half to me, that's a position you take here on this team.”
The Baltimore Ravens finished the 2024 regular season 12-5, over the 11.5-win under line (NFL.com final standings). (12-5)
“You don't have to do it, but I bet them to miss the playoffs. I'm not saying it's one of my favorite bets, but there's a couple books out there, $2.75,”
The Ravens went 12-5, won the AFC North, and made the 2024 playoffs, so the bet on Baltimore to miss the playoffs lost.
“yeah, just a year of rebuilding for Denver. Like, you expect them to be bad this year. They have a ton of dead money on the cap. It's just they'll be bad. In this division, I'm with Chad. I have him as the fourth worst team. So, like like, the under five and a half.”
The Denver Broncos finished the 2024 regular season 10-7, well over the 5.5-win under line (NFL.com final standings). (10-7)
“We like KC to win the division,”
The Kansas City Chiefs went 15-2 and won the AFC West in 2024 (NFL.com final standings).
“Colts are one of my favorite teams. Like, they're over a win and a half eight and a half is our win total. I'm gonna bet that. I know Chad will bet that.”
The Indianapolis Colts finished the 2024 regular season 8-9, short of the 8.5-win over line (NFL.com final standings). (8-9)
“I like the JJ over five and a half in his draft position, Chad, and it is plus 100.”
J.J. McCarthy was selected No. 10 overall by the Minnesota Vikings in the 2024 NFL Draft, clearing the over 5.5 draft-position line. (Pick 10: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings)
“Joel, one of the best offensive linemen greater in the draft, over seven and a half at plus 300.”
Joe Alt was selected No. 5 overall by the Los Angeles Chargers in the 2024 NFL Draft, under the 7.5 draft-position line. (Pick 5: Joe Alt, OT, Los Angeles Chargers)
“If you want my chalk bet right now, I'm just blindly taking the Eagles.”
The Philadelphia Eagles finished the 2024 regular season 14-3 and won the NFC East division. (14-3, 1st place NFC East)
“Eagles over 10 and a half wins if you wanna make those bets.”
The Philadelphia Eagles finished the 2024 regular season 14-3, clearing the over 10.5 wins total. (14-3 regular-season record (2024))
“the books are already open. The bears at eight and a half for their win total. Easy under bet. I mean, that is just I feel bad for bears fans. Like, that is such a nice little bet for them to go, yeah. Why wouldn't we be nine and eight? Like, that just that that is literally a number hung for Bears fans. So, yeah, even before he's drafted, Caleb Williams already getting a tough number from the books, eight and a half. I'll be all over that under.”
The Chicago Bears finished the 2024 regular season 5-12, well under the 8.5 wins total. (5-12 regular-season record (2024))
“but why did you go so heavy on Gosselin, Simon? Well, yeah, I didn't go crazy heavy, it is my my bigger position just because was Robert Downey junior born for that role? I don't know. But I can say that Gossam was born to be Kent. Like, it was just incredible how perfect that lined up and how perfect he was as it. Like, it's just again, Barbie, that movie was not meant for someone like me in any aspect. And they did not make that movie in any way for someone like me that has grown up that way I grown up or lived the way I lived, and I enjoyed it. And I think most people came away, like, seeing that like, again, most guys got dragged to that movie with the opposite sex, and I was not going and thinking at all this was going to be an enjoyable experience. And it was so perfectly casted in every way. I just have a hard hard hard view of them being snubbed in all these different categories. That's why I did make that bet.”
Robert Downey Jr. won Best Supporting Actor for Oppenheimer at the 96th Academy Awards, not Ryan Gosling (Wikipedia).
“Jayden Daniels at number two at plus one fifty, take a piece of it. Yeah. I bet it's like I'm already there with you where I bet it where, we'll”
Jayden Daniels was drafted No. 2 overall by the Washington Commanders in the 2024 NFL Draft (Wikipedia, per official draft results).
“And that's why me and Chad are putting money on the New York Giants. It's disgusting to say, but there is a window where this team could win this division.”
The New York Giants went 3-14 in the 2024 NFL season and did not reach the Super Bowl; the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Kansas City Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX (ESPN).
“I bet Atlanta Super Bowl future because”
The Atlanta Falcons went 8-9 in the 2024 NFL season, missed the playoffs, and did not reach the Super Bowl; the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Kansas City Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX (ESPN).
“again, this is gonna I'll start at the bottom. We're gonna get real ugly, people. My first bet I made, Giants at a 125 to one on bet three six five. Do I really think the Giants are gonna win the Super Bowl? No.”
The New York Giants went 3-14 in the 2024 NFL season and did not reach the Super Bowl; the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Kansas City Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX (ESPN).
“Next up is Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is heavily rumored to be out there to get Justin Fields. Yes. I was gonna I was gonna ask you about this one because I'm looking at this one, and, like, of course, we're gonna bet the Steelers.”
The Pittsburgh Steelers went 10-7 in the 2024 NFL season and did not reach the Super Bowl; the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Kansas City Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX (ESPN).
“Tampa, 66 to one. I just like the value there on Baker.”
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 10-7 in the 2024 NFL season and did not reach the Super Bowl; the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Kansas City Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX (ESPN).
“I love betting the second half as being the most points. Like, I just I just find it time and time again.”
Score was 3-10 at halftime (13 points) then 22-12 the rest of the way (34 points), so the second half had more points than the first. (First half: 13 pts; second half (incl. OT): 34 pts)
“One other one that I like is Pacheco to lead the game in rushing, which you might be able to get at better numbers.”
Christian McCaffrey led all rushers with 80 yards on 22 carries; Isiah Pacheco had 59 yards on 18 carries, so Pacheco did not lead the game in rushing. (McCaffrey 80 rush yds; Pacheco 59 rush yds)
“I'm fading a lot of props right now in this 49ers team, but ones I had piggyback Nick off of is I like the McCaffrey props and Deebo props. Like, the the Chiefs have struggled against guys in the slot. Deebo runs out of the slot. I mean, his numbers are even juiced up to minus one twenty. I believe it's over 58 and a half receiving yards now. Still love it.”
Deebo Samuel had 33 receiving yards on 3 catches, under the 58.5-yard line. (Deebo Samuel: 33 receiving yards)
“Alright, Simon. We've got two chiefs, long shot MVPs. Are you gonna close it out for us? Yeah. I call this the coward bet. Who is coward's favorite player in this game, Chad? Patrick Mahomes. No. It's Sam Darnold. You've not ever watched that man show. Jesus Christ. Yeah. I mean, don't get me wrong. I'm gonna be generationally wealthy. Sam Darnold. And it's a stupid bet. I hate it, but it's a bet I have to make. It's a bet where we've seen Purdy go down in our first quarter of a playoff game before. We've seen him take blindside hits because Shanahan schemed up wrong, and he blocked one of the best DMs on football with a tight end. Like, these things can happen. So it's crazy, but Sam Darnard right now is 200 to one. So I'm gonna throw a little bit on that.”
Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl LVIII MVP; Sam Darnold (49ers backup QB) did not win it.
“Obviously, the boring chalk bet is gonna be Mahomes, so I'm staying away from that. I get it if you wanna play that, but I like long shots. So my second big long shot is Fred Warner.”
Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl LVIII MVP, not 49ers LB Fred Warner.
“47 and a half is the total. Sunday night, you mentioned you liked the under. I like the under as well. I played the under. I've got a lot of stats and details, but before I dig into those, give me some of your logic. Yeah. Same as last year. Fan of show last year, it's I if I take a position on a total, I I go all in. So first quarter last year over, first half over, third quarter over, fourth quarter over, game over. Like, I go all in on those kind of bets. I'll be doing the same here with the under. I just love the under, and there's a bunch of different reasons. The biggest one would just be what Chad talked about where, I believe not only will the chiefs defense get stops,”
25-22 — Combined score was 47 (Chiefs 25, 49ers 22), under the 47.5 total.
“me and you like back in my home screen because I feel like we know exactly what we're getting. Even at one and a half, I'm still comfortable taking that number as I'm a dog. But I think you just said it where it's like, shouldn't we just take the money line at this point? If it gets up to plus one twenty, plus one ten, unless you wanna take the two, which we talk all time, two is such a key number, you might as well take the money line. But it's just I feel comfortable with Mahomes knowing that if this game is close and it's in the fourth quarter and we have Mahomes as a dog and he has the ball, don't you mean feel don't we feel like we're gonna cover this number, Chad? Yes. Where I can't say the same. I don't have that confidence. You know, Purdy's played great these last two weeks. I think it says more about those defense he's played where this Chiefs defense and Spags, all the different looks they're gonna give him. I just don't have the faith in it. Right? I just don't think he'll be able to do what he did the last couple weeks against his defense. So,”
25-22 — Chiefs beat the 49ers 25-22 in OT, a 3-point margin that covers the +1.5 line.
“I'm pissed. Like you said, I wanted the three to pop again just because I only got a penny down shit. Like, those those look ahead lines. The books are ticking. Nothing on it. So Yeah. I'm I'm hitting as many two and a half lines as I can right now just because you just said I I don't see this going back up to three. I can only see this going down. The public, the pros, everyone got burned on that Ravens bet, and they're just like me and you, we're just terrified of betting against Mahomes. So,”
25-22 — Chiefs beat the 49ers 25-22 in OT; margin of victory (+3) exceeds the +2.5 line, so Chiefs +2.5 covers.
“Chad likes San Francisco minus seven. That's his exact decision. Simon likes Baltimore minus three and a half, and Baltimore minus three and a half is going to be our big balls bet of the week.”
KC 17-10 BAL — Kansas City Chiefs beat Baltimore Ravens 17-10 in the AFC Championship, a 7-point margin; Ravens -3.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“obviously, I know taking the Lions money line here and playing them seven and a half, we're gonna need a a miracle to win this game outright.”
SF 34-31 DET — Detroit Lions lost 34-31 to San Francisco in the NFC Championship, a 3-point margin; Lions +7.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“So give me the Lions money line with the Ravens money line paired up.”
SF 34-31 DET; KC 17-10 BAL — Parlay (both legs must win): Detroit Lions ML lost (SF 34-31 DET), Baltimore Ravens ML lost (KC 17-10 BAL); both legs busting sinks the parlay.
“they are so heavily invested right now and all of the future is tied to the 49ers team. So I'm gonna take the free points of value and take the seven. Alright. Simon likes the lions at seven.”
SF 34-31 DET — Detroit Lions lost 34-31 to San Francisco in the NFC Championship, a 3-point margin; Lions +7 covers (ESPN box score).
“And then 2008 Seahawks plus nine, and they got smoked. That's why I want you to throw a little on the money line just because if you play this spot long term, it's it's a nice trend so far. I know it's only four game sample, but it's been profitable taking these big dogs not only on the number, but on the money line as well. So had a couple questions about why even mess with the Texans money line if I have a future. I want it all, baby.”
BAL 34-10 HOU — Baltimore Ravens beat Houston Texans 34-10 in the AFC Divisional Round; Texans moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“So I feel like our money line round robin should really be Texans, lions, niners, and Bills. Yeah. Yeah. I like that. Put it in the book.”
BAL 34-10 HOU; DET 31-23 TB; SF 24-21 GB; KC 27-24 BUF — Parlay (all legs must win): Texans ML lost (BAL 34-10 HOU), Lions ML won (DET 31-23 TB), 49ers ML won (SF 24-21 GB), Bills ML lost (KC 27-24 BUF); Texans and Bills legs busting sinks the parlay.
“We know this number is too big. Let's not overthink it. We gotta just take the Houston plus nine.”
10-34 — Ravens beat Texans 34-10 in the Divisional round; Texans lost by 24, well outside +9 (ESPN).
“I'm gonna ride out of Houston a 100 to one.”
Texans lost 34-10 to the Ravens in the Divisional round and were eliminated, never reaching Super Bowl LVIII (ESPN).
“I just love Green Bay here. They're all live dog. Like, everything about this feels like a live dog. Chad talked about Jordan Love against pressure and the blitz. He's outstanding. You know who's had injuries to their defense that doesn't get talked about enough? This Dallas team. A Dallas team that teams have been able to move the ball on here towards the end of the season because of those injuries. So, such a big number like this, indoors, perfect condition. Again, we know the deal. Dallas is gonna put up points. Right? That's CeeDee Lamb, Dak combo, probably the best of football this season. Mean, I know Tyreek Hill had the record with Tua, but it's like anytime Dak needs those yards, doesn't matter if CD's doubled. He's gonna he's gonna find seating. It's gonna probably work out for him. So we we totally get that going into this. I just feel like we're alive the entire game. Even if we were down 21 nothing, Chad, I'm still gonna be doing the math in my head of, like, okay. We can still get there because we have the seven and a half. So, feel comfortable taking this big of a number on a first time starter and and Jordan Love in the playoffs. And we know the deal. They're the youngest team in the playoffs this year. We could easily get rolled in this game just because of that inexperienced. But I just think LaFleur has been coaching at such a high level, and Jordan Love's been playing at such a high level. I don't see them letting this game get away from it. I just always see them being in it. So I feel really confident taking the seven and a half, Chip.”
32-48 — Packers beat Cowboys 48-32, winning outright and covering +7.5 (ESPN).
“Yeah. And the fact that these teams both already played each other, like, also adds into that where I'm right there with you. I really like the under. But as as you noticed, it hadn't really moved. Like like, Evan put in the chat, it moved to 42 and a half. Professional money came back in because it moved too much, so they moved it back to 44. I like it at 44, though. I'm with you. Like, I've already bet this a couple times now because I kept thinking what you just said. I thought it was gonna keep dropping because we keep getting reports of stronger wins. And, you know, shout out to our guy, PJ, who does a ton of work for those behind the scenes at action. He he is obsessed with wind unders. Like, in our chats, our little Slack chats, all he talks about are these wind unders, and this is definitely one of these games popping right now where, you know, wind gust up to 30 miles per hour in that bowl of a stadium. That's a big deal to try to pass, and especially these two teams that, you know, they want to pass the ball, but I don't think they're gonna be able to, like Chad just talked about. So I already wanted to take the under in this one because I I I do think between the injuries out to Miami and the struggles of the Chiefs, I already like the under here. But now you you factor in this weather. I I definitely feel more comfortable betting this under than any other one this week. If you can find a 44 and a half,”
7-26 — Chiefs beat Dolphins 26-7; combined 33 points stays under 44 (ESPN).
“So if people wanna follow my bet that I did just taking the money line of the Bills and the Chiefs, put it together, it's, I think, minus one thirty five.”
Parlay cashes: Bills beat Steelers 31-17 (Bills ML wins) and Chiefs beat Dolphins 26-7 (Chiefs ML wins) (ESPN).
“If it had to be one, and I think you just said what it was, your favorite Super Bowl future right now. Yeah. Rams. I'm almost positive before we came on, there were still 50 to one Super Bowl odds. And I know how tough a path they have to get there, but I already talked about it, people. Like, it just lines up right for them where of all the teams in the NFC, they're the only ones that have already faced this 49ers team multiple times. They know what the 49ers like to do. Stafford is a veteran quarterback. He won't let the moment get too big for him. And a Stafford versus Purdy kinda game, I'm I'm gonna be feeling pretty confident back in Stafford, especially as he's gonna be a you know, what would you think? You think he's gonna be a five, six point dog in that game? It makes sense why they have such big odds at this point just because the road to get there is going to be insane. But we talk all the time. These veteran quarterbacks with these teams that people don't believe in, they they can go on these type of runs. You just have to get hot at the right time. Like, Joe Flacco's showing us. Right? Joe Flacco got hot at the right time, took his team to a Super Bowl. Same could be said here with the Stafford and this group of receivers and Williams at running back. It's just they're such a good team that if the 49ers weren't hyped up so much, this would be, what, 30 to one, twenty five to one, it feels like. But just because everyone has the 49ers so far ahead of them, they're just getting no respect. So, yeah, 50 to one, give me the Rams.”
Rams lost 24-23 to the Lions in the Wild Card round and were eliminated, never reaching Super Bowl LVIII, which the Chiefs won over the 49ers (ESPN).
“Simon says take the rams plus three. Simon says LA rams plus three and a half. Simon says Simon says when Simon says do it, we do what Simon says. And I told you I do I do bet differently in the playoffs, and this is a big, big situation of how I bet differently where I'm not as terrified to take certain public dogs, and this would be a spot with that where it's just like I think a lot of a lot of pros who do like the lines,”
24-23 — Lions beat Rams 24-23; Rams lost by 1 but covered +3.5 (ESPN).
“But, yeah, it's seven and a half. I like I like Green Bay at this number, people.”
32-48 — Packers beat Cowboys 48-32, winning outright and covering +7.5 (ESPN).
“I got it back, this Eagles. So, I'm gonna I'm gonna grab it now just in case it does keep going up. I'll grab the three in case news comes out that Baker's really banged up.”
9-32 — Buccaneers beat Eagles 32-9; Eagles lost by 23, well outside +3 (ESPN).
“I'm on this this titans team at the five and a half. It'll be in the final five. It just has to be.”
TEN 28, JAX 20 — Titans beat Jaguars 28-20, covering the +5.5 spread by 8 (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“bears and bills. Like, I I love both of them. I know the bears is is playing a little bit of house money. If you've been betting them like we have these last couple weeks, like, I've just been loading up on them every week just because I just think they're undervalued. And this week, nothing's changed. I think the three is is is too good of a number to pass on. So, yeah, if it's if I was gonna be one of my five bigger bets, the bears is definitely the top three.”
GB 17, CHI 9 — Packers beat Bears 17-9; Chicago lost by 8, missing the +3 spread (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“which is just so typical of this show. We've just been trying to catch whatever a falling knife in this bad Catch a falling knife. That is the Carolina panthers who are just terrible, and the coaching's terrible. Bryce Young is terrible. I hate it. But like Chad just said, it's just we keep playing the numbers. We keep getting sucked in, and can't avoid it. Like, I liked it at five and a half. I still like it at four and a half.”
TB 9, CAR 0 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 9-0; Carolina lost by 9, missing the +4.5 spread (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“I know the Eagles have had the Giants number, and Chad just broke it down to me why it's giving me confidence. So if if the Cowboys win, if Detroit win or whatever happens, it's like the Eagles might not be playing for anything. Maybe they'll have Hertz play in the first quarter or something like that, but he's banged up. A lot of guys are banged up. They they shouldn't wanna arrest these guys in this game. Like, you know, Kelsey's been banged up. They take him out. They take Lane Johnson out. Now we have their whole backup starting on that o line against a Giants team that Chad just talked about. They love the blitz. Now Mariota is the quarterback of the Eagles as well. So you now you have a backup offensive line and Mariota as a five point favorite. Come on. Like, we gotta take Daley here. We're gonna play them in the contest as well. It's still five and a half. I've seen it in couple books. Seen five in our book, maybe four and a half in contest. No worries. I'd still take that number.”
NYG 27, PHI 10 — Giants beat Eagles 27-10, covering the +5 spread by 22 (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“I'll I'll throw two favorites out. You see how you feel about them. K. How are you feeling about taking stick in the chargers minus three and a half at home against the chiefs and their backups? No real feel for it? No real feel. My feeling is neutral to negative. Yeah. I like I like the Chargers there just because they have been playing with the backups last couple weeks. They look so bad against this Denver team that I just it feels like the public is totally out on them where you're probably getting a nice price point on them. If you're getting minus three minus three and a half, He'd open our chat that there's a chance that Bosa and Keenan Allen would play. That would be so stupid then. Slim chance. No. Slim chance that Keenan Allen and and Bosa play. Yeah. That would be so dumb if they actually did it. But, you know, they're competitive football guys. Right? All these stats do matter, and especially guys like Kean Allen and Boso who, you know, they're definitely not playing for a championship. They're just playing for their own stats at this point. Like them, but totally get where you're off of it. What about Cincinnati Bengals against his Browns team? Seven point favorite, six six and a half point favorite. It feels like such a big number. That's why you should wanna back it, though. Right? Do I like that better than the Bills? That's the thing. Like, I feel I feel I feel so much more confident about the Buffalo Bills covering a short number as road favorites, as crazy as that sounds, than I do about Cincinnati as a huge favorite against the browns. I don't know why I feel that way. Like, the browns have a lot to play for here. They can finish the year with a winning record. I think that matters. I mean, the Cincinnati Bengals can. I I just hadn't really thought about it, to be honest. Well so I'm I'm heavy on the charters. I'm heavy into the Bengals. Like, I bet both these ones,”
LAC 12, KC 13 — Chiefs beat Chargers 13-12; Los Angeles lost by 1, missing the -3.5 spread (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“Like them, but totally get where you're off of it. What about Cincinnati Bengals against his Browns team? Seven point favorite, six six and a half point favorite. It feels like such a big number. That's why you should wanna back it, though. Right? Do I like that better than the Bills? That's the thing. Like, I feel I feel I feel so much more confident about the Buffalo Bills covering a short number as road favorites, as crazy as that sounds, than I do about Cincinnati as a huge favorite against the browns. I don't know why I feel that way. Like, the browns have a lot to play for here. They can finish the year with a winning record. I think that matters. I mean, the Cincinnati Bengals can. I I just hadn't really thought about it, to be honest. Well so I'm I'm heavy on the charters. I'm heavy into the Bengals. Like, I bet both these ones, you know, obviously, I feel like you know, I I got a great number on since you because it was six, and now it's seven. But I'm not really still worried about the seven. I just think the browns have been a different team on the road this season. And now you're factoring that they really aren't really playing for anything. Right? The browns are sitting all their starters. They're sitting flat or they're sitting everyone. So now that means they're playing a fourth or fifth string at quarterback against the Cincinnati team that I mean, they've played really well here down the stretch. I know they've had a bunch of injuries to their defense. That's my only real pause here where it's like, even against our fourth or fifth stringer, we might still get backdoored here, which I can already just sense you being like, why the hell do we back the Bengals as a seven point favorite?”
CIN 31, CLE 14 — Bengals beat Browns 31-14, covering the -7 spread by 10 (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“Give me the five. Give me the five and a half. I'll I'll back Tennessee here in the spot.”
TEN 28, JAX 20 — Titans beat Jaguars 28-20, covering the +5.5 spread by 8 (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“So I'm gonna back this bears team at plus three in a game that should be closer to a pick rather than plus three. I'm with Chad on his exact decision.”
GB 17, CHI 9 — Packers beat Bears 17-9; Chicago lost by 8, missing the +3 spread (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“So just be careful here. I'm I'm betting Minnesota. I bet them at three.”
DET 30, MIN 20 — Lions beat Vikings 30-20; Minnesota lost by 10, missing the +3 spread (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“have to back the falcons a plus three. You know we have to. You're so right. We do.”
NO 48, ATL 17 — Saints beat Falcons 48-17; Atlanta lost by 31, well outside the +3 spread (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“I like the bills in this spot.”
MIA 14, BUF 21 — Bills beat Dolphins 21-14, covering the -3 spread by 4 (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“I still would take Giants at five and a half.”
LAR 26, NYG 25 — Rams beat Giants 26-25; Giants lost by 1, covering the +5.5 spread (ESPN Week 17 scoreboard).
“I would still take it at eleven if you would take the Arizona.”
PHI 31, ARI 35 — Cardinals beat Eagles 35-31 outright, covering the +11 spread by 15 (ESPN Week 17 scoreboard).
“Indy is the three point favorite. I I just don't trust this this Vegas team, and I know they won't gain No. The truth. No. You gotta you gotta take Colts here. Don't even think about it. We don't even need to break this one down. Keep it simple, stupid. Take the Colts. Who cares if it's Joe Public?”
IND 23-20 LV — Colts beat the Raiders 23-20; Colts -3 pushes exactly (ESPN).
“I'll take I'll take the panthers plus seven.”
JAX 26-0 CAR — Jaguars shut out the Panthers 26-0; Panthers +7 fails to cover badly (ESPN).
“it is dead. Like, that is a dead bet. If it's 14 nothing at any point in this game, we're just not gonna get there with this panthers offense. But I'm gonna stick to back in this panthers defense at home at a big number against Jordan Love on the road. I I just think it's too many point two two points too high. Like, there should be three, three and a half. It's still five. I'll take the value there. It's just trusting the number and trusting this Panther's d and,”
GB 33-30 CAR — Packers beat the Panthers 33-30; Panthers +5 covers (ESPN).
“I would do it. Big balls better than week. Tennessee titans. We're rolling with Nashville. A pretty interesting game that, across the board. Like, I'm looking at action app right now. It's minus one fifteen for the minus two and a half for the Seattle. So if you do think this could get the three, I can understand if you wanna wait, but I just don't think it's gonna happen. I just I do think this will come down before kickoff. So I've been grabbing the two and a half just because of that.”
SEA 20-17 TEN — Seahawks beat the Titans 20-17; Titans +2.5 fails to cover (ESPN).
“So that's that might be the most amateur you've sounded this season, Chad, talking about, your point of ours a little bit. I I think I'm on the same boat where I want the MVP to come through, dude, but I have I don't know. Say I have 5 or 6,000 total invested in McCaffrey to get MVP, which would a nice payday if it hits. I'm gonna have, what, 10 times that amount this week on the Ravens. So it's like like, I love futures. I love them to come through, but you talk to any professional, it's like, I don't give a damn about those futures. I wanna win this week, this game. It's such a crapshoot with those futures that it's like, I I get where you're coming from, but anyone listening to this, you cannot think that way ever when you're betting. It's just I made a mistake. I admitted it. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I'm just letting people know where it's like, you you can't think that way. Maybe in week 18, right, we we take positions and we hedge. I mean, last year was we had the dream of all dream scenario. We we basically had the Jaguars at 10 to one, eleven o one, seven o one, eight to one to win the division last year. They played against the titans in the final week of the season, and it's the easiest hedge of our life. We literally took whatever it was. Half the amount of money we were gonna win, easy hedge, put it all on the titans at whatever that was, plus six, plus seven. The game landed on four or five. Me and Chad hit our Tennessee on the number, and we hit the jags season long. So, it's a little harder to hedge these MVP bets, but at the same time, it's like, don't have to worry about this week. We'll deal with that in week 18. Maybe we'll be able to find a position to take. But, yeah, I'm happy you came around the Ravens. It's like, it's not a play I'm going crazy about where it's like, you gotta take the Ravens. No. The 49ers are incredible. We could easily get blown out here. It's more that we're just playing the number that, what I said. Like, this number's too inflated. Evan gave us the trends about the Ravens as an underdog. Lamar is an underdog. He's been very profitable, especially in this spot where the number is this big. He's been good to us. I mean, me and Chad talked about, like, the time we won on the Chiefs, we won by, like, I think, a point. Like, we got really lucky and covered with the Chiefs against the Ravens. And that's why I remember the game because I remember sweating it really hard, and me and Chad needed it, I think, for a five and o week. And Lamar scares the hell out of you. Like, he's always putting his team in the best position. So, that's why we're doing it right. We're getting a a battle tested veteran quarterback here against as much I I wanna say Purdy's not tested, he's not. Like, he's kind of a guy that, this year when they had that bad run, they lost those three games. He was concussed. They didn't have Trent Williams. I think Debo might have been out of those games too. He's really had one of all his pieces there. He's been really, really dominant in Purdy. So totally get the hesitation for people out there. They're like, they don't they were with Chad, and they wanna be in the 49er side. I know some pros are on the 49er side, but I can tell you most of pros I've talked to, most of the guys betting this, they're on me and Chad or, I guess, Chad's side now, the Ravens. It's like, you just back the Ravens here. In long term, we say it all the time. This will be a winner. The trends back it up. It's a good spot to back them. So a game that I wasn't sure was gonna be r five because we were split on it. I felt like in my head, I was getting ready for you to be like, no. I gotta force in the 40 niners. And I was like, alright. I'll let Chad put in his 40 niners. But, no, it makes me happy to know you've come around. And, yeah, if we can get five and a half in contest, that'd be amazing. Five five and a half on the Ravens.”
BAL 33-19 SF — Ravens beat the 49ers 33-19 on Monday Night Football; Ravens +5.5 covers easily (ESPN).
“yeah, the fear is Tomlin's lost his locker room, but Chad just gave you the stats. Me and him, we've been playing this spot every year together. We just always bet Tom on these kind of spots. So no doubt we're gonna bet it. Go grab it too if you can still find it out there, two and a half. But, yeah, it sucks. I hate betting this Pittsburgh team. It's just not been fun.”
PIT 34-11 CIN — Steelers beat the Bengals 34-11; Steelers +2.5 covers easily (ESPN).
“He was still on cut concussion protocol yesterday, so no need to rush this bet. I mean, worst case that's why I put a little bet now just at 2 and a half just in case he does come back and all of sudden this balloon's up to three and a half, four. But just gotta gotta keep your alerts on social media. You need to know Adam Schefter whenever he gets cleared, CJ. We love this number. So, you know, we we might early lock in our contest just because we're getting a good number right here on Texans. We know Houston. They're just better at home as well. Browns defense at home, 13 points per game. That's the best in the NFL.”
CLE 36-22 HOU — Browns beat the Texans 36-22; Texans -2.5 fails to cover (ESPN).
“That's what I got it at, falcons plus two and a half.”
ATL 29-10 IND — Falcons beat the Colts 29-10; Falcons +2.5 covers easily (ESPN).
“So two and a half, give me Tennessee.”
SEA 20-17 TEN — Seahawks beat the Titans 20-17; Titans +2.5 fails to cover (ESPN).
“they just struggle. They struggle to be consistent in so many ways. So Arizona is terrible. I agree with everything. People's pushed back on this one, but this number's too high. Plus four is is way too high. This should be plus three. So I'll take the free point of value, and I'll take Arizona here.”
CHI 27-16 ARI — Bears beat the Cardinals 27-16; Cardinals +4 fails to cover (ESPN).
“the way, by the way, they're now 14 underdogs, the chargers. Stuckey, literally, as I'm looking, just put in the chargers plus 14 in the Action Network app. Yeah. It's a classic spot. Right? It's a short week for the Bills, and they have to travel from east to west. They came off the high of highs by blowing out Dallas, and we expect them to have let down game. Thank god we can't put this in the contest because this is such a bet we'll make. Oh my god. It would be awful. Awful experience. But this is spot we have to bet, especially this week after all the big dogs lost. Right? Like, the jets blown out. Patriots blown out. The who else we have? Cardinals blown out. Like Yep. The the public is just having their way right now, but these are the kind of games that catch them. Right? That's why they're making this spread so big. I bet you if it wasn't like it's been these last couple weeks, this will be, what, 12 and a half, 13 maybe? Yeah. They're just saying, no. We'll hang a 14. Please, anyone come and take this 14. So, I'm right there with you. I'll I'll grab the plus 14, but wouldn't be shocked if this goes up some more. I mean, the Bills,”
BUF 24-22 LAC — Bills beat the Chargers 24-22; Chargers +14 covers easily (ESPN).
“I wanna take it. Like I just said, I wanna take it. And, like, that was my first bet I made. It was 2 and a half. I took the 2.”
MIA 22-20 DAL — Dolphins beat the Cowboys 22-20; Cowboys +2 pushes exactly (ESPN).
“Love Houston. Grabbing the two now”
CLE 36-22 HOU — Browns beat the Texans 36-22; Texans -2 fails to cover (ESPN).
“I I don't gotta read on them, but I'll tell you this much. Atlanta has a dog at home. I'm gonna take it. Like, they're just they're the kind of team where when they're favorites, I wanna fade them, especially on the road. And when they're a home dog, I tend to like to back them, especially in a game where I don't know what's gonna be betting them. Like, I know everyone that took them this week, 90% of the public and 80% of the tickets, wherever it was, they're totally off this Atlanta team. So I'll grab the plus two just now just in case it does move down.”
ATL 29-10 IND — Falcons beat the Colts 29-10; Falcons +2 covers easily (ESPN).
“Yeah. It's honestly I just wanted to get the number at two and a half just before CJ got cleared. Or if he is gonna come back, you know, it'll stink because I'm gonna lose value here. But if he is out, I do think this number will go up to three and a half three. So, I like it. I just I like this spot for Tennessee.”
HOU 19, TEN 16 — Texans beat Titans 19-16 in OT; Tennessee lost outright, busting -2.5 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“Tampa Bay Buccaneers, another one that might be in our round robin, three and a half at the Green Bay packers. I gotta I I bet the I bet the Bucks at three and a half.”
TB 34, GB 20 — Buccaneers beat Packers 34-20 (margin +14), covering Tampa Bay +3.5 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“Starting with Saturday, definitely Pittsburgh. Like, have heavily bet it. Took the two and a half, took the two.”
IND 30, PIT 13 — Colts beat Steelers 30-13 (Pittsburgh margin -17), busting +2 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“And, I mean, it was getting there. I mean, it probably is in my top five at this point, but the Ravens, but, like, I don't know what to do with it. Like, I just as soon as I went back to three, I was like, I gotta grab this because it's gonna go back up, and it just hasn't, which is scaring the hell out of me. So, yeah, my chalkiest bet this week is definitely the Ravens, but,”
BAL 23, JAX 7 — Ravens beat Jaguars 23-7 (margin +16), covering Baltimore -3 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“Interesting. They're jumping off the bears here. Like like you just said, at two and a half, Cleveland makes sense. I I agree with that. But at three and a half, which it is right now, I'd grab the bears. You want me to make this Simon Says? You make this Simon Says. Simon Says. When Simon says do it, we do what Simon says. Yeah. I'm glad you did that because I didn't wanna make it my executive decision because then it just feels like, what am I doing? Then I'm just a homer who's betting the bears every week. And if the weather does impact, which maybe maybe that's something going on there, I actually feel better once again about this bears team if it is bad weather. Like, you guys are really good at running, and you're really good stopping the run right now. So weird weird movement on this number. I mean, I might be walking right into it, but give me the three and a half, Chad. Like, that's that's way too much respect for Joe Flacco”
CLE 20, CHI 17 — Browns beat Bears 20-17 (Chicago margin -3), covering +3.5 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“Bills minus two and a half, Bills to win the division plus three ten.”
Buffalo finished the 2023 regular season 11-6 and won the AFC East on a tiebreaker over the 11-6 Dolphins (ESPN 2023 AFC East final standings).
“Josh Allen, MVP, 20 to one.”
Lamar Jackson won the 2023 AP NFL MVP award with 49 of 50 first-place votes; Josh Allen did not win MVP (Wikipedia, AP NFL MVP Award voting results).
“New England getting nine and a half. That's the second biggest home dog in Belichick's career. So it's an opportunity. Like, that's how we view this stuff. So I don't know if this will make our money line round robin just because we expect Mahomes not to lose three straight games. But, man, nine and a half, we can't avoid it, Chad. We gotta bet it.”
KC 27, NE 17 — Chiefs beat Patriots 27-17 (New England margin -10), busting +9.5 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“We talked Baltimore on Sunday. You were taking a small taste of the ravens at minus three. We still don't know what's happening with Trevor Lawrence. Historically, and we saw this again last week, Lamar terrible as a favorite of more than three, twelve and nineteen as a favorite, five and sixteen against this twelve and nineteen against the spread as a favorite, five and sixteen against the spread when favored by more than three points. You still like Baltimore at minus three and a half? I don't know what to do with it. It's I liked it three. I knew it was gonna go up. That's why I bet it. But I also knew in the back of mind, this is going to be the most public side of any bet this week. Like, the the public is going to hammer the ravens against the jaguars here.”
BAL 23, JAX 7 — Ravens beat Jaguars 23-7 (margin +16), covering Baltimore -3 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“Shock didn't bring up this Bucks Green Bay game. Bucks plus three and a half in Green Bay before Green Bay plays. You know, to me, I'll grab the three and a half just in case what Chad talked about.”
TB 34, GB 20 — Buccaneers beat Packers 34-20 (margin +14), covering Tampa Bay +3.5 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“I know we gotta get out of here real quick, though. What do you think of that Raymond's minus three again It's the jaguar Sunday night. I thought it was really interesting. I'm I'm anxious about Lamar as a favorite. You know? I'm I'm grabbing it. You are? Yeah. I do I have to. Just the Trevor Lawrence, he had no mobility, and that really hampered him. And I feel like he got a little lucky against that Cleveland's defense. And the Raven's defense, that's such a bounce back spot from after getting lit up by Stafford, you know, that you know, I I got it I got it back at a three because how does this not go up? I just I'm seeing it well, by the way, I'm seeing it at three and a half almost everywhere.”
BAL 23, JAX 7 — Ravens beat Jaguars 23-7 (margin +16), covering Baltimore -3 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“yeah, you take it. I already bet it at two and a half.”
BUF 20, KC 17 — Bills beat Chiefs 20-17; Kansas City lost outright, busting -2.5 (ESPN Week 14 scoreboard).
“Kansas City Chiefs grabbing now. Two and a half, Simon Says.”
BUF 20, KC 17 — Bills beat the Chiefs 20-17; Kansas City lost outright, busting the -2.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“that's how it is when you bet Carolina. Right? It's gonna come down to a stupid two point conversion. So five and a half matters. If it comes down to that, it can land on five again. You might as well grab the five and a half like I am right now just in case it does drop back down to five, four and a half.”
NO 28, CAR 6 — Saints beat the Panthers 28-6; Carolina lost by 22, well outside the +5.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“Yeah. I I like honestly, I like the Bengals here. Like, just matchup wise against the Colts. Like, I don't know what the guy's luck rankings, but it feels like the Colts have been crazy lucky on this little win streak they're on right now. Right? They've had a lot of things bounce their way if you look it up all their matchups. So, yeah, I'm seeing one book still with Bangla's plus one and a half. So I'll I'll grab that. I'll throw in a teaser.”
CIN 34, IND 14 — Bengals beat the Colts 34-14 outright, covering the +1.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“But at minus three, minus two and a half, like, I I bet pretty heavy Sunday night into Monday morning on Dallas.”
DAL 33, PHI 13 — Cowboys beat the Eagles 33-13, covering the -3 line comfortably (ESPN scoreboard).
“but this is a game I had bet right now. I do like the six and a half. I'd probably take it down to five and a half, but once it hits that number, I'd stop. Like, that that feels right. The Giants are terrible. Offensively, they they do have some major weaknesses, but this is way too big of a number for Jordan Love to be favored by.”
NYG 24, GB 22 — Giants beat the Packers 24-22 outright, covering the +6.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“Cincinnati at Jacksonville, Jacksonville plus 10. The total is 39. It's gone up. It was at 38. Was at 38, went down, went back up, now at 39. No. These people know what to do. Under. Under. Under. That's it. That's what we're talking about. It it pays, baby. We're not talking about the side here. I agree with you. We don't like the the side. We like the under at 39 and a half.”
CIN 34, JAX 31 — Bengals beat the Jaguars 34-31 in overtime, a combined 65 points, well over the 39.5 total (ESPN scoreboard).
“this is his classic situation of I'm gonna take Dallas at minus two and a half, take him at the three.”
DAL 33, PHI 13 — Cowboys beat the Eagles 33-13, covering the -2.5 line comfortably (ESPN scoreboard).
“That's an interesting one too. I'm writing it down. So, like, that's a number I know my model is gonna have slanted towards the dog. I'm just gonna grab it now because it's seven and half. That's such a key number way too big for the Ram. So, definitely gonna text a runner to go grab me that seven and a half right now.”
BAL 37, LAR 31 — Ravens beat the Rams 37-31 in overtime; Rams lost by 6, covering the +7.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“at Washington. This was Simon Says, Washington plus nine and a half. I'm a little worried about this one only because it's becoming a public dog in the same way we were on the Raiders last week, and it was a public dog. And, you know, Sam Howell is having one of those blow them up kinda years. I do think that the commander's offense is is good, and they've got opportunities to score. But their defense is so bad that the it's gonna they're gonna have to score every time they have the ball in order to keep up with the dolphins. So I'm a little I bet it. I'm a little antsy about it.”
MIA 45, WSH 15 — Dolphins blew out the Commanders 45-15; Washington lost by 30, well outside the +9.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“Indianapolis at Tennessee, you and I love the titans here. As of Tuesday, this was one of your biggest bets. Since the pod has been reported, Jonathan Taylor will be out. I'm actually surprised that that the number hasn't moved because it was at one and a half one. It really hasn't moved off of that. I don't know why anyone likes the Colts here. That's good for us, though, because if it flipped to, them being a favorite, Chad, we would've been scared off because we hate that stat about dogs being favorites. We do. Yeah. I'm looking at the action app right now. Only one book has them at minus one and a half. The rest is at minus one.”
IND 31, TEN 28 — Colts beat the Titans 31-28 in overtime; Tennessee lost outright, missing the +1 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“So I'll do the Rams for one, and then I'll do Pittsburgh for the other one. So Tomlin's not great at covering in these spots, but I do feel like he usually wins in these kind of spots.”
ARI 24, PIT 10 — Cardinals beat the Steelers 24-10; Pittsburgh lost outright, busting the moneyline pick (ESPN scoreboard).
“that's the only thing that's scaring me because, like, deep down, I'm I'm getting hurt at home plus three. It's a no brainer pick. It's like getting Mahomes under the under the three. Right? It's like, even though it didn't work the previous week against the Eagles, if we got catches the ball, that's a nice bet on Mahomes. And same thing goes here with Hertz where it's like, it might not win this week, but if you've been Ben Hertz at home, especially on the money line, he's only had one loss in two years at home. It's it's crazy, but that's just that that's facts. Like, that's what the number is. So, it's the team that even if we're down 24 to 10 in the fourth quarter, you still feel like you have a chance to cover this number with the Seagulls team. They just never give up. They never die. So, yeah, I'm I bet it. I take it. I've already bet this. Again, for a little amounts,”
SF 42, PHI 19 — 49ers routed the Eagles 42-19; Philadelphia lost outright, well outside the +3 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“Green Bay packers at home against the chiefs, plus seven right now, already grabbing it. Gotta do it.”
GB 27-KC 19 — Packers beat Chiefs 27-19 on Sunday Night Football; Green Bay's 8-point win covers the +7 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“super chalky. Just grabbing it right now before it disappears. Is that Detroit minus three minus three and a half, if you can find it? I just think it's gonna go up.”
NO 28-DET 33 — Lions beat Saints 33-28; Detroit's 5-point margin covers the -3.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'll do that Giants number. I do think it comes down to three. So grab the three and a half if you can.”
NYG 10-NE 7 — Giants beat Patriots 10-7; New York's 3-point margin covers the +3.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“This is when you wanna back the chargers, not when they're favorites, but when they're over a three point dog. Usually, that's really good to us because Herbert just plays these close, ugly games. So, yeah, Chad. Like, a game this might be one of our five. Like, the more we're talking about thinking about it. I gave it up. I mean, Chad, I didn't bet the Sunday night. I don't have a penny on this game. I wish I did now. It's just a nice number and a nice spot to back the chargers team. So, yeah, the hope is I'm gonna grab this three and a half now, grab the four when we get off this call, and then by kickoff, it's down to three. And I feel good because I got closing line value. But,”
LAC 10-BAL 20 — Ravens beat Chargers 20-10; Los Angeles lost by 10, missing the +3.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“So pretty boring by me. I I was I wanted to get there in the 40 niners, especially all the stats Evan gave. But like Chad just said, these it's it's tough these divisional games to not take the dog for me. And Thanksgiving, Chad's right. Like, I gotta break away from that. I just can't take all the dogs here. So I am forcing this lion's pick a little bit, but I think Chad just talked about it. It's like, do we really think golf's gonna have a back to back three turnover game? No. It's that was just that was such an outlier, such a bad game that they were due for. And I'm pretty sure Evan said before that game, he'd been in an 11 o ATS run against the North. So the bears broke that. Wouldn't be shocked to see him start another another, run here. Right? It's like the Green Bay coming high off a win, like you said, a short week now on the road. The lions know they kinda stole one there. Right? I don't think Dan Campbell's gonna be blowing smoke up their ass all week. I think it's gonna be you guys got lucky. You better get ready. We got another divisional game coming in here. So I'm right there with you, Chad. I I I I wanted to be on Green Bay, but I like the lines here, especially at seven and a half. I don't I don't mind that number at all.”
DET 22-GB 29 — Packers beat Lions 29-22 on Thanksgiving; Detroit lost by 7, missing the -7.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“yeah, I'm gonna have a lot more money on the seahawks at that seven. It's just too big of a number for a divisional game.”
SEA 13-SF 31 — 49ers routed Seahawks 31-13 on Thanksgiving; Seattle lost by 18, well outside the +7 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“yeah, I want to be on the bears. Like, this guy Dobbs is not as good as he's perceived by the public right now. It's it doesn't make sense how he keeps doing it. I totally get it if you're scared off you don't wanna do it, but I'm telling you the value is on the bears. Like, this number should be two and a half, three. You know, the fact that it's three and a half, I'll take the number just because Chad said it. Like, the bears obviously are a bad team. They're not that good, but”
MIN 10-CHI 12 — Bears beat Vikings 12-10 on Monday Night Football; Chicago's 2-point win covers the +3.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“We need Denver for our lungs. As Bob Scucci likes to say, we need Denver minus two and a half for our lungs. It's the difference between two and three or one and four for the first time all season. What's the deal, though? We dropped two no matter what after Thanksgiving? Yeah. Right now, I think we have So we don't care. Yeah. I guess not. But, like I care because I wanna win money, but I think our worst week this year is two and three. Right? I think we have two two and three weeks. So yeah. Yeah. That'd be nice. You know, like, two and three, obviously. Like, I wanna win money, but, yeah, if that if the bears had lost, I you you would see me dying here right now if that hadn't covered. Like, I just I really needed that one. So, yeah, still feel the same. Feeling good about Denver. Like, the number, like, their defense in this spot against Dobbs. Have zero confidence right now after today. Just did so bad today betting wise. Got got no confidence, but still believe in it. Still believe in Denver. I think it's a good spot. So,”
DEN 21-MIN 20 — Broncos beat Vikings 21-20, a 1-point margin that falls short of the -2.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“So you know what I'm gonna do? I'm a throw a little bet on it right now because Chad's right. Drew Locke might be the guy for the Seahawks. So, again, this bet could change. I'm just gonna bet this now because the six is still available at a couple books. Couple books are showing actually lower numbers, so shop around. I'm just I'm just talking bet three six five on here. But, yeah, that's a good point. I didn't I forgot. Gino Gino is a little banged up in that game. So Yeah. Gonna take a little taste here on the 40 niners.”
SEA 13-SF 31 — 49ers routed Seahawks 31-13 on Thanksgiving; San Francisco's 18-point margin covers the -6 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm in all Miami. I've been betting Miami, you know, since Sunday night, and now that number is all the up to 13 and a half. And I I I'm gonna still throw a little on there.”
MIA 20-LV 13 — Dolphins beat Raiders 20-13, a 7-point margin that falls short of the -13.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“Alright. Let's recap. Our foxhole, Arizona plus five, one of Simon's biggest bets of the week.”
HOU 21-ARI 16 — Texans beat Cardinals 21-16, a 5-point margin that lands exactly on the +5 line for a push (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm on the eagles. I'm taking the three. I'm happy to take it, but you just we talked about, like, this Mahomes spot has not been good to us”
KC 17-PHI 21 — Eagles beat Chiefs 21-17 on Monday night; Philadelphia's 4-point margin covers the +3 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“It's three and a half. I'm on the Ravens then. So it's it's nothing crazy. I mean, don't have to think too much into it. It's a simple fact of it's a short week.”
BAL 34, CIN 20 — Ravens beat Bengals 34-20; Ravens -3.5 win by 14, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“I'm grab grab Miami now that it's it's under 13. Simon Says Miami minus 12.”
MIA 20, LV 13 — Dolphins beat Raiders 20-13; Dolphins -12 win by only 7, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Just wait. I think this could keep going up, brother. I think you might be able to you might be able to get seven. What about Pittsburgh plus three and a half this week against Cleveland? It's plus four in bet three six five. Well, there you go. I'm grabbing it.”
CLE 13, PIT 10 — Browns beat Steelers 13-10; Steelers +4 lose by 3, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“The big ball's bet of the week is the New York Jets plus one.”
LV 16, NYJ 12 — Raiders beat Jets 16-12; Jets +1 lose outright, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Have a way too much money I I care to omit on New Orleans at minus two and a half.”
MIN 27, NO 19 — Vikings beat Saints 27-19; Saints -2.5 lose by 8, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“You gotta do it, people. What are you saving Dallas for? You have to use them this week if you still got them.”
DAL 49, NYG 17 — Cowboys beat Giants 49-17; Cowboys moneyline wins outright (ESPN box score).
“Oh, they are? That's right. They're wrong? Nothing changed. I think they've been favorites, haven't they? But they're minus three and a half. Alright. Then shit. I guess I wrote down wrong. That's weird. Weird. Yeah. It's it's a game where, you know, I'm just gonna be happy to take Carolina, and I'm happy to take the under.”
CHI 16, CAR 13 — Bears beat Panthers 16-13; Panthers +3.5 lose by 3, cover the spread (ESPN box score).
“the total is 40 prime time unders, twenty two and seven, one sixty one, one zero two and three since 2019, another prime time under last night. Actually, twenty three and seven because I forgot to update from last night. So three prime time unders this weekend. The bears should have beaten New Orleans outright. Like, the bears had five turnovers. New Orleans still only won by seven. Bryce Young throws two pick sixes, which were the difference in the game. We like Carolina a lot on Sunday. I think it was the right side. They dominated that game. More total yards, more total plays, more yards per play, more rushing yards. Indy was truly terrible. What do we wanna do here? Just bet the under? Move on? Yeah. A bit of a weird line, though. Right? Doesn't it feel like a Justin Fields line? It it feels like a Justin Fields line. It feels well, why do you say Justin Fields line? Because the bears are three and a half point dogs. Like, if if we knew Fields was No. No. No. Bears are favorites. Something changed? Oh, they are? That's right. They're wrong? Nothing changed. I think they've been favorites, haven't they? But they're minus three and a half. Alright. Then shit. I guess I wrote down wrong. That's weird. Weird. Yeah. It's it's a game where, you know, I'm just gonna be happy to take Carolina, and I'm happy to take the under. A lot of conversation about when the books are going to adjust to this trend and when they're gonna catch, you know, us betting these unders. As long as the money keeps coming in late on the over, I'm really not too worried about the books catching up to us. I mean, that number last night moved from, I believe, 39 and closed at 41 in a lot of books by kickoff. Like, that's what keeps happening, people. I'm telling you. Like, you might think everyone's on the under because on the app and, you know, in the action app, it says, you know, all the money, all the tickets on the under. In that last hour, so much money always comes in on the over. It's either people thinking they're smarter than ever all of us, and they're like, you know what? We're due for an over. They come in on it, and then Joe Public comes in on it. So right now, yeah, all the bets, the money is on the under. It'll probably flip when it gets closer to it. I have to just do it. I have to take it all. I have to take the under, and it's just a”
CHI 16, CAR 13 — Bears beat Panthers 16-13, combined 29 points; under 40 wins (ESPN box score).
“this jaguars team that I mean, they're they're probably the sec what? The second hottest team of football behind the ravens? I mean, people don't realize it because they just came off a bye week. But Yeah. That's what I mean. It's very sneaky that they're six and two. You like, the AFC South is becoming more interesting because of the Texans, but they're, like, slowly but surely, they started they started badly. They've been winning games. They've been winning ugly games. They haven't even reached their peak, and they're six and two. Yeah. And, honestly, you know, that that Houston game was probably their worst game of the year. They lost, what was it, seventeen thirty seven. They, like, they got dominated. But if you go back and look, that was that wonky game of, you know, Charles Arms can stop turning the ball over. They got a kick return Houston by, I think, like, a fullback, something crazy like that. And, you know, since then, they've been good. Like, they beat Atlanta. They beat Buffalo. They beat the Colts. They beat the Saints, then they just beat Pittsburgh. Then they had a bye week. That's my only fear here is it's just like, what are we not seeing, Chad? Because that's obviously professional money that's made this go up to three now, but I'll take the three. If the public and a couple pros love the 40 niners and, you know, Chad just said it. Like, Shanahan, he's kind of a different coach than at home as a favorite than he is on the road as a favorite. And”
JAX 3, SF 34 — 49ers routed Jaguars 34-3; Jaguars +3 lose by 31, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm gonna go with the Bengals, and I'll back them at six and a half here. You know what? Simon says six and a half Bengals.”
CIN 27, HOU 30 — Texans beat Bengals 30-27; Bengals -6.5 lose outright, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“team, another one we talked about it on on Sunday night, they're at Minnesota. The game opened at three, Minnesota plus three, down to two and a half. We expected it to move in the Vikings direction. It did. I mentioned earlier in the show when talking about the bears how lucky the saints got. And all the stats are in our direction here about how terrible Carr is as a favorite. He did not cover against the bears. They needed five turnovers to win. I went back and counted yesterday when I was doing my research. All of those turnovers for the bears were in bears territory, led to 10 points. Another was a missed saints field goal, include a fourth down stop and a punt. Like, they couldn't convert anything. We've been talking about Derek Carr being better as he got closer to the goal line. That wasn't it. This team got very lucky to walk away from that game with a win. So now we got Josh Dobbs. There's always something weird about backup quarterbacks when they come in. It it flips the script on your bet. Right? Because all of a sudden, like, there's havoc that's being created, in weird ways that a team has to defend against. Josh Dobbs doesn't have that this week. He might just go back to being Josh Dobbs from the cardinals. So, I don't really have a strong opinion on this game. Yeah. Another game where I it feels like we're we're able to buy low on the saints team. I think most people perceive what you just said, which is, like, the saints got pretty lucky. They didn't play that good last week, which is true. Like, they didn't play that great. How only reason I wanted to back the Vikings because it's a fun story. It's a fun team, but the numbers move too much. The value is now on the saints. You're getting a better team under three playing against, you know, a team's backup they just brought in. Like, you they're gonna see the tape. The tape will be pretty simple. It's like, if you can stop the you can stop Dobbs from, you know, running outside the pocket and picking up first downs, they're dead. Like, the guy the guy only knew when when if you go back and watch a film, when they would run routes, they basically only had five plays to run. They must have went to him and said, what are the five plays you know? And they just ran those five plays. It's I'm with everyone. It's such a fun story, but I need to, like, be the professional gamer I am and take the value here. The value is the saints.”
MIN 27, NO 19 — Vikings beat Saints 27-19; Saints -2.5 lose by 8, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“I've said it many times. We have Cincinnati minus one and a half in the contest. That is the current line. Simon and I are both on Cincinnati in a decent sized way. Accurate? Yeah. I'm in I'm in on it.”
24-18 — Cincinnati Bengals beat Buffalo Bills 24-18, a 6-point margin that covers -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“We're betting Mahomes to win. Yeah. We have zero evidence not to bet on Kansas City and Mahomes for all the things you just said. I know there's sharp groups coming in. But by the way, we're sharp sometimes too. I do not fear betting on Kansas City in this spot. I know. That's what's giving me fear. You're just so confident. I hate it. You sound like them. I just I I don't know how these people can bet this game so confidently, especially the Miami side. I'm not the biggest trend better. I mean, the trend that Evan gave us is incredible. Like, 1919 and six under under three points or as a dog. It's like, how do we not do it? So I hate it. Like, I would have much more confidence if this had gone to three because that means a lot of the pros were on this with us. Told you it's a smart group. Man, like, to move this number, especially when the books know every teaser everything's gonna start Sunday morning tied to the chiefs. All the bets are tied to the chiefs. So that's what's giving me pause here. It's like, it's a really big stand alone game. And I know the books are good. Right? They crushed last week. The chiefs losing outright. This is our one of our more public plays of the year. I'm so happy we don't have to put this in the contest because I just I told you yesterday I was probably gonna buy out of my chief's position. I haven't. I just actually end up putting a little bit more on it at the minus one and a half. And Good for you. Yeah. I'm just gonna trust Mahomes.”
21-14 — Kansas City Chiefs beat Miami Dolphins 21-14 in Frankfurt, a 7-point margin that covers -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm dug in. I've already bet this heavily at the three with New England. I haven't let the 3 and a half scare me off.”
20-17 — New England lost outright to Washington 17-20; Patriots' -3 margin busts -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“we're pretty much betting that the panthers defense, which they've done all year, show up at home, is going to show up again. And I I love the two and a half. I think it's such a key number.”
27-13 — Indianapolis Colts beat Carolina Panthers 27-13; Panthers' -14 margin busts +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I just I cannot be talked out of the Bengals here. I just love the Bengals, and I love this number.”
24-18 — Cincinnati Bengals beat Buffalo Bills 24-18, a 6-point margin that covers -2 (ESPN box score).
“Most of my money right now is bet on the jets at three and a half, and the panthers are plus three, and I I hate this week.”
27-6 — LA Chargers beat New York Jets 27-6; Jets' -21 margin busts +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm taking a two and half because I know the pros are gonna come in on the panthers.”
27-13 — Indianapolis Colts beat Carolina Panthers 27-13; Panthers' -14 margin busts +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“this was gonna be what Simon says, but, like, luckily, it stayed at three. Go go grab the jets.”
27-6 — LA Chargers beat New York Jets 27-6; Jets' -21 margin busts +3 (ESPN box score).
“lined open to two, got up to two and a half. It's been bouncing around. There's two and a halfs and twos out there. We like Kansas City here. I mean, Miami has not played well against good defenses, struggled against the Pats when they were healthy early in the year, lost to the Bills when they were at full strength, lost to the Eagles even when the Eagles were beat up in the secondary. And as you have said all year, the Chiefs are grading out as one of the best defenses in the league. Opponents' QBR is bad against them whether they're getting pressure or not getting pressure. Their their Achilles heel is the run, but Miami's not great against the run. I feel like I wanna keep playing this until it gets to three. Yeah. I'm definitely leaking a little confidence, Cabrera, who I was Sunday night. I know some some sharp groups, they like Miami here. They like the the the basically, Miami is in a spot where their their offense should excel against this chief's defense. And I don't know. I just I feel like it's a it's a lot of opinions, and it's not a lot of fact based. And it's like, I don't really know what to make make of it where it's like, to me, Meansheh gave you the stats. Mahomes as three point favorite or less or as a dog. He's nineteen and six ATS. I can't fight those trends. Like, we just we we play Mahomes here. It's uncomfortable. Don't love it. And, like, Miami feels just just right now, Miami's offense feels like they're gonna be able to give the chief some problems. But, you know, even if we're down a touchdown or whatever it is, end of the game, it's like, we got Mahomes. That's that's the nice thing about Betting Mahomes. And, you know, me and Chad talk all the time. We love fading him when he's when he's a big favorite because these they don't know how to close team out. But he doesn't know how to get closed out either. It's like Mahomes will never stop fighting, this number will never be in doubt. So I wanted this to be in our contest, but now I'm feeling lucky that we can't put it in because I I just don't have a feel for it. It feels like maybe I'm overlooking Miami here, but it's just it's just such a weird number. I don't get why it's not three. So I'm taking the Chiefs still still in the chiefs, but definitely interesting gonna hearing what the pros are saying about this one. Like, I've talked to a couple of smart groups who like Miami, and they like Miami now with Ramsey on defense. Like, they feel like it's a big upgrade. Again, I just I keep pushing back because an upgrade because he put against Mac Jones. Like, I don't know. It feels like Ramsey wasn't really tested yet. So be a be a great test for Ramsey, that defense, see how they perform against Mahomes coming off an embarrassing loss, something that, you know, doesn't really happen to Mahomes. So if if he if he gets fully cleared come Friday that he's fully healthy over the sickness and if they travel well I don't I'm not sure what their travel schedule is yet, but, you know, it's a big deal. Like, them them flying from Kansas City all the way to Germany, I think that's, like, a seven or eight hour difference time clockwise. If they fly in Friday, probably won't make this one of my bigger bets of the week. But if they're if they get in early this week, you know, everyone's getting cleared. How do we not love the Chiefs here, Chad? It's it's it's a good number. We we play this spot. We totally love the Chiefs. We're gonna be on the Chiefs. At the end of the day, until the Chiefs prove otherwise, if I'm getting them at less than a field goal, I'm taking the chiefs.”
21-14 — Kansas City Chiefs beat Miami Dolphins 21-14 in Frankfurt, a 7-point margin that covers -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'll I'll bet Cleveland already took the seven and a half. I'll bet the eight.”
27-0 — Cleveland Browns shut out Arizona Cardinals 27-0, a 27-point margin that covers -8 (ESPN box score).
“I'm on the chargers and the under, but not I mean, it's rare. I'm just, like, I'm probably not gonna watch a game. Probably not gonna watch this game. It's 02:00 in the afternoon here in Hawaii. I I rather go to the beach or do something else than watch the bears and chargers. Just two two bad teams, but I'll put I'll put some money on it. I'll,”
30-13 — Los Angeles Chargers beat Chicago Bears 30-13 outright; moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“And I've been all over the seven and half, and now it's down to seven. So gotta be a foxhole bet.”
DEN 24, KC 9 — Broncos beat Chiefs 24-9; Denver covers +7 (ESPN box score).
“Big balls, Washington plus six and a half.”
PHI 38, WSH 31 — Eagles beat Commanders 38-31; Washington loses by 7, does not cover +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Simon says New York Giants plus three”
NYJ 13, NYG 10 — Jets beat Giants 13-10 in OT; New York Giants lose by exactly 3, pushing against +3 (ESPN box score).
“I took the three. I've taken the two and a half on Pittsburgh. I mean, we don't have a choice.”
JAX 20, PIT 10 — Jaguars beat Steelers 20-10; Pittsburgh loses by 10, does not cover +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“We gotta we gotta use the chargers here. This is this is a huge number”
LAC 30, CHI 13 — Chargers beat Bears 30-13; Los Angeles wins outright, survivor cashes (ESPN box score).
“I already threw someone on rams at seven. I mean, that just got that was way too high when it went up to seven.”
DAL 43, LAR 20 — Cowboys beat Rams 43-20; Los Angeles loses by 23, does not cover +7 (ESPN box score).
“Simon says Simon says giants, go grab the three right now.”
NYJ 13, NYG 10 — Jets beat Giants 13-10 in OT; New York Giants lose by exactly 3, pushing against +3 (ESPN box score).
“yeah, I hate it where it's like, me and Chad, we're supposed to take Arizona here. Everything about this is saying take Arizona. This this game here, if the Ravens win this, they go on a three game homestead after this. Like, it's they they're definitely looking ahead to that where it's just like, we just gotta get through one more road game on this shitty ass field they have down in Arizona where everyone complains about that damn field. But I I hate it make you sick, Chad, but we're supposed to take day and a half here. I got this number at seven. We're getting a point and a half of value. You know, don't don't go crazy betting this one right now, but, like, I've I've definitely placed a a decent amount on the eight and a half right now.”
BAL 31, ARI 24 — Ravens beat Cardinals 31-24; Arizona loses by 7, covers +8.5 (ESPN box score).
“this number should be six and a half, seven. It's eight and a half right now, and it's one of the first bets I made. I just didn't bring it up because I was waiting for Chad to say it, but I'm on Denver.”
DEN 24, KC 9 — Broncos beat Chiefs 24-9; Denver covers +8.5 (ESPN box score).
“their adjustments is we just score more than you, and I don't think they're gonna get away with that here in this Eagles game. So, would still put them in our contest of two and a half, Chad.”
PHI 31, MIA 17 — Eagles beat Dolphins 31-17; Philadelphia covers -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“Simon, as I was saying about the big balls bed of the week, the Atlanta falcons. There we go. A two and a half point There we go. He found it. He found it, people. At the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We were hoping to move the three, but right now, the wise guys love it. Simon seems to be convinced from the sharp calls that this will now be our big balls bet of the week. And it makes me sick. I cannot believe look. We said we were gonna have to do this anyways, but we were just hoping it would get to three. We're gonna bet on this Atlanta, Tampa Bay game. And and to be honest, this game, if we're doing the luck rankings and we like when we do the luck rankings, we like there to be a certain threshold before we officially make it a luck rankings game. So this can't be an official luck rankings game, but the falcons have ended up in the bad beats scenario for the past six weeks. Brutal luck for them this year so far. This game is one ranking place away from a luck game. So to me, it's essentially a luck rankings game. Saw that this morning from Nick Giffin in our Slack channel before we came on the air. So I agree with you. It's gotta it's gotta we gotta do it.”
ATL 16, TB 13 — Falcons beat Buccaneers 16-13; Atlanta covers +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“This is a good right spot for the seahawks at home against Arizona divisional game. Give me the seahawks, Chad, for a survivor.”
SEA 20, ARI 10 — Seahawks beat Cardinals 20-10; Seattle wins outright, survivor cashes (ESPN box score).
“it's a big number for the Seahawks team here, but I gotta take some chalk, and this is this is one of the teams I'm gonna take here for the chalk. I'll take seahawks minus eight at home.”
SEA 20, ARI 10 — Seahawks beat Cardinals 20-10; Seahawks margin +10 vs -8 line, covers (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“First comment. This is a stinky line. Yeah. At that point, it was plus two. Like I said, now it's plus one. Huge. One of the biggest Pro Joe games of the week. All the money on Denver. Oh, the Denver Broncos. We had been saying all season, like, Russell Wilson wasn't the problem. Right? He wasn't getting better, but he wasn't the reason they were losing. Their defense was the reason. Then Russell Wilson was terrible against Kansas City. You had laid a total egg. Laid an egg. Sean Payton called a terrible game. We still almost covered, though. That's the craziest part. Dude, if you got 11, you at least like look. We love the under in that game. We had the Guy hit a 60 yard field goal. Prime time under. We got it. But, and look. At one point, the line was 11. So if you could find the 11, which we talked about, then, you at least push. But if Advance Joseph fixed the defense against the chiefs, we love the broncos here. Yeah. Gotta do it. Gotta gotta take the broncos.”
DEN 19, GB 17 — Broncos beat Packers 19-17; Broncos margin +2 vs +1 line, covers (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“as you're talking about it, I'm firing away on the Eagles minus one and a half wherever I can find it.”
PHI 31, MIA 17 — Eagles beat Dolphins 31-17 on Sunday night; Eagles margin +14 vs -1.5 line, covers (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“right when me and tag you off this call, I'm gonna throw some on the six and a half. That's just a good number for 49ers team”
MIN 22, SF 17 — Vikings beat 49ers 22-17 on Monday night; 49ers margin -5 vs -6.5 line, busts (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“I'll take the titans here at plus four and a half. Yeah. We're gonna be on the titans.”
TEN 16, BAL 24 — Ravens beat Titans 24-16 in London; Titans margin -8 vs +4.5 line, busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“It's at one and a half. I actually saw some ones. It's possible we get a better number. Could this be a late breaking contest entry? Yeah. It's, again, another, again, another game I just absolutely love this week. The saints, I believe they had the NFR record eight straight road games without giving up 20 or more points, going for number nine here against an offense that Chad said it. Like, Ritter played incredibly well last week. They had seven points at halftime. Like, this is just an offense that they just struggle a lot of things, and I put that on the quarterback here. So the this this bet here is really about regression. Like, I talked I talked last week. CJ is going to throw picks. He is going to turn the ball over. He's going to do stupid stuff. He had two two of the worst drops I've seen all year for the Atlanta defense. Like, literally, threw one to one defender right in the breadbasket. Like, the guy had his hands up, hit him in the face. Yeah. The next one, he it was one he put one downfield, and the guy should have picked, he didn't. So he he is putting the ball up to be turned over. Now here we have a saints team that they don't make those drops. I mean, you saw last week, the honey badger had that pick six on Mac. I think he's up to 30 picks now, Tyron Matthews. Like, these are these are guys that do catch the ball when it's thrown their way. And this saints team, we talked about this is our identity. Like, their identity is this defense. The defense and which I always believe in Derek Carr on the offense, it really is on the defense. Like, if they get stops, they've turned over CJ, this game will snowball. Like, it that's a rookie quarterback and a rookie head coach. These are the kind of games they should lose and have let down games. So it's weird that I've seen the number move down. Like Chad just said, I've seen I thought this would go up to two and a half, three. It's gone the other way. So that means money is coming on Houston here, but doesn't change my view of it. It's the same thing last week with the saints and the patriots. Like, people were like, aren't you worried that the saints number is moving against you guys so much? No. It's this is how it is. Like, pros on these coin flip games, pros will be on both sides. Like, it all depends on what your model makes this number. So to me, if I make this minus two and a half for the saints, I love the value on the saints. I'm getting now a point and a half of value on the saints. So it's another game that this is tough to take, Chad. Like, watching CJ's tape, this kid's incredible, especially that last drive last week, but the saints defense is so good. They should be putting this kid into fits. Like, they're different coverages. They're different schemes. They're gonna throw at them. I love this matchup so much for the saints defense.”
HOU 20, NO 13 — Texans beat Saints 20-13; Saints margin -7 vs -1.5 line, busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“I have a decent amount now in the bears. Hoping it gets back to three. That'd be great for me and Chad because maybe it'd be three and a half in the contest, but have no issue putting the two and a half in the contest as well.”
CHI 13, MIN 19 — Vikings won 19-13 at Chicago; Bears margin -6 vs +2.5 line, busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“I'll take minus two Minnesota against a Bears team that don't know how they can handle winning, Chad.”
CHI 13, MIN 19 — Vikings won 19-13 at Chicago; Vikings margin +6 vs -2 line, covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Indianapolis is bidding visiting Jacksonville. Anthony Richardson will not be playing. We like this one. We grabbed it at five and a half. It started moving when we were on the show. Money and tickets all on the colts, and that was even before the Richardson news. To me, it just feels like way too much inflation on the Jags after beating Buffalo who honestly could barely feel the defense and still almost won the game. Yeah. It's really tough. It feels like such an inflated number. I believe I think it was a stat last week. Like, a team that comes back from London and doesn't take the buy, apparently, all their games are super close. And we had that with Atlanta last week. Like, the game really did come down Yeah. Until the last snap. So I'm right there with you, Chad. We're getting a big number. Another team that's a real public dog, but, you know, me and Chad, we'd we'd like this number. So it sucks that it moves so much, but we're still getting a four and a half, which is such a key number. Of course. I'm I'm gonna bet that. Already had bet it. Like Chad said, bet the five and a half, bet five yesterday. I'll bet the four and a half again today.”
JAX 37, IND 20 — Jaguars beat Colts 37-20; Colts margin -17 vs +4.5 line, busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Simon Says if you can find it, go grab the two and a half on this chargers team right now plus two and a half.”
LAC 17, DAL 20 — Cowboys beat Chargers 20-17 on Monday night; Chargers margin -3 vs +2.5 line, busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Yeah. Again, we talked a little bit about two and a half. They're plus two and a half on Tuesday. The lines are running by the time we keep to the show Thursday, and it was announced Jimmy would be the starter. Got two and a half. I think they already got to minus two and half. Now it's settled at minus two. I'm with Chad. Like, I I still probably would bet on the Raiders. I probably still will. But totally get it if you don't like this number. You just wanna skip it. I just it's hard for me to back level on the road against a Raiders team that's just desperate here for a win. So I'll I'll I'll take the take the home favorite here at minus two.”
LV 17, GB 13 — Raiders beat Packers 17-13 on Monday Night Football, covering -2 (ESPN scoreboard).
“First game I looked at, titans plus four and a half hosting the ravens. It it's it stinks, but I'll take it. Because I I do think it's gonna drop, but first glance, I'm just like, why and why in the world is this so high? Like, there should be three, three and a half at most. It's four and a So I'll take the value. And if we're me and Chad to walk into a trap, we'll buy out of it, but I I gotta take that early value in Tennessee. But why do we think it would be that right now? I don't know. It's a weird line. I do not get it because I I I don't I don't know the all the respect given to this Ravens team. Yeah, Tennessee played bad, but that's kinda how divisional games go. Right? And that's why I feel the same with the Ravens where it's like, maybe this is we're reacting to the Ravens, and they're not as bad as we perceive right now. Or, is Tennessee not as good as we perceive, but four and a half? That's that's a huge number for this Ravens team to be catching. So I'll I'll walk into it right now with you, Chad. I'll grab the four and a half. Well, I'm seeing it drop a little bit. So what do we think about what do we think of it at four? Yes. Still grabbing. Like, to me, it should be three. Like, that's that make that number makes sense here. So it's I'm happy it's dropping because at least the smart money is coming on Tennessee. But, like Right. What what a weird number to hang by this sports book. It's so strange. I don't get it. I totally don't get it. Grab it. Grab it. But, yeah, I'm hitting it right now.”
BAL 24, TEN 16 — Ravens beat Titans 24-16; Titans lost by 8, failing to cover +4 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Alright. What about indie this week? And if I skip a game if I get a game that, like, you haven't thought about yet, please interrupt me. No. I grabbed indie at five. It's it's running. It's already four and a half, four at some books. So it's just another number I'm gonna grab now. Let the week play out, see who the quarterback is. And if it moves against me and Chad, maybe we'll get out. But I'll just take the early value here on the Colts team that, you know, Chad said it. Like, there's there's a little bit of magic to this team. They just play really hard. They're really well coached. I don't really know if the Jaguars are good or they've just been in England for two weeks. Like, this is just a really strange team that I'm not gonna overreact to them beating the Bills today because a lot goes into that. The Bills just got out slow. Kinda saw, you know, Josh Allen get it together by the second half, but it was just too late. So, yeah, grab the grab the four and a half another game. We'll just grab it now. If we need to, we'll buy out of the position. But this this is one of first bets I made before we jumped on at five.”
JAX 37, IND 20 — Jaguars beat Colts 37-20; Colts lost by 17, failing to cover +4.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“The only other bet I made so far is Tampa Bay Bucks. They're plus three right now against the lines.”
DET 20, TB 6 — Lions beat Buccaneers 20-6; Buccaneers lost by 14, failing to cover +3 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Tennessee at Indy. The only difference is that the Tennessee number did move the way we thought Atlanta might move. They opened it at about one and a half or two. We bet it at one and a half. Indy now a two point underdog.”
IND 23, TEN 16 — Colts beat Titans 23-16, covering +1.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“have an advantage. I think they have an advantage at home. We still like them at minus two. Yeah. And it's also people are gonna start picking up themes here where it's like, we like riding the hot teams, and then we try to jump off. We try to sell high. It's like stock. So we were all over Houston last week. Now we're fading them. All over the bills last week, a lot of pros now are going on the Jaguars up to the following week. It's like, you're trying to not just time the market, but you're trying to sell low on these teams. And if you're on Houston and you didn't get the three and a half, Chad's talking about closing numbers, you're you're buying high in a team at a bad number now. And my hope was that this was gonna be like the colts game where this is gonna flip, and Atlanta would be a home dog. That would have been amazing. Sadly, the pros couldn't chill, and they had to come in and buy the number of one and a half and one. And now, like Chad said, it's up to two, one and a half still. So, nothing's changed for me here. Like, CJ has been incredible. He's gonna get he's gonna get caught. He's gonna hit a wall. Eventually, the book will be out on him. That's just how it is. Teams are gonna find your weaknesses, and they attack it. They build game plans around it. Me and Chad have talked all the time. There's a reason these rookies fall off as the season goes along. It's a very long season. They're getting more and more tape on you. So whatever he likes to do, the defense is gonna start counteracting that. And Atlanta, it's not so much that me and Chad are just betting them because of their running style and offense. It's more about Houston doesn't have any of the guys to stop it. Like, you go through their defense, they are thin, especially against the run and run stopper. So that's why, like, Chad was right on the same page with me where he broke down those two guys. And it's like, that's why I like Atlanta here. It's not that I have zero faith in the Ritter. He can still make some of the throws. But if we're ever gonna be in a game where I know it's gonna be, like, a shootout like, say this game was in Houston, probably would be on Houston. Right? That's the you're getting a good number for them. The fact that it's CJ on the road in this kind of environment after you know, they had this big win in Jacksonville. He made some throws, but that wasn't all him. That Pittsburgh game, that was really a great game by him. So that's why it's like the public, everyone now seeing that. They're all over this with CJ, where pros like us are like, yes. This gets talented, but this number should be three. Like, this should be three or above. The fact we're getting under a field goal here with this Atlanta team, it's another game where it just feels like we have to have it in the contest.”
ATL 21, HOU 19 — Falcons beat Texans 21-19, a 2-point margin that exactly pushes the -2 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“but there's gonna be times where he needs to make the throws. Hopefully, that changes as the season goes along. But, again, there's nothing for me to see in the 40 that can just get me on Dallas. If this was four and a half, I honestly would start thinking Dallas there because I we talked about, like, this number at four kinda made sense. But at three and a half, you're getting value on the 40 niners. So I'm right there with Chad. I've just been betting this number all week. It's gonna be my most public bet of the week. All the public is just coming heavy on this 40.”
SF 42, DAL 10 — 49ers beat Cowboys 42-10, covering -3.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Simon Says is Atlanta minus one and a half.”
ATL 21, HOU 19 — Falcons beat Texans 21-19, covering -1.5 by half a point (ESPN scoreboard).
“I feel like we gotta take the Raiders here. Yeah. I'll I'll save my big breakdown for Thursday show on this one. Yeah. Raiders, I love, love, love them this week. Love them in this spot. Hoping this gets the three. Great, great buy low opportunity. Even on Sunday night, I saw this number, I was like, well, probably gonna end up on the Raiders again this week. So I'm grabbing the two and a half now.”
LV 17, GB 13 — Raiders beat Packers 17-13 on Monday Night Football, covering +2.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Our big balls is the Jets, nine and a half. We'll find out soon enough.”
KC 23, NYJ 20 — Chiefs beat Jets 23-20; Jets lost by 3, covering the +9.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Simon, also tell people what player prop you're thinking about. Took Mahomes underpassing prop. So I think it was two seventy two. I mean, we need it for our bet. If he's throwing over 300 yards, probably not the best spot for us with our Jets bet. And Andy Reid kinda kinda leaked a little bit that they wanna use a run more, take less pressure off Mahomes, take have him take less hits. In this matchup, the Jets, they they kinda want you to drop back and pass. Right? They have the really good pass rushers, so I think Andy's gonna attack on the run. So yeah. It it might have gone up, but it was two seventy two and a half, this morning when I gave out his underpassing.”
Patrick Mahomes went 18/30 for 203 passing yards (1 TD, 2 INT) in the Chiefs' 23-20 win over the Jets, well under 272.5 (ESPN box score). (Patrick Mahomes: 18/30, 203 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT)
“It's the game of the week. Forty niners cowboys. I'm I'm grabbing the minus three and a half right now. Minus three if you can find it on this forty niners team. It's just a great number, a great spot.”
SF 42, DAL 10 — 49ers beat Cowboys 42-10, covering the -3.5 spread by 28.5 points (ESPN scoreboard).
“Yeah. I got end up kinda getting bullied and dicking the Seahawks. A really sharp group came in on them. They've moved the number. I took it late. I think I think I'm minus one. Now it's up to minus one and a half.”
SEA 24, NYG 3 — Seahawks beat Giants 24-3 on Monday Night Football, covering -1 by 20 (ESPN scoreboard).
“to recap, our foxhole, Las Vegas plus five and a half.”
17-24 — Los Angeles Chargers beat Las Vegas Raiders 24-17; Raiders +5.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm telling you people, the the group that's coming in heavy on this Jets team, highly respected, smart guys, back to smart money here. Hopefully, we can get to 10 again. Like, me and you hit the 10, I've grabbed some nine and a half just in case it does drop drop even more in a few books, but I'm with you. I do think I'll get back to 10.”
23-20 — Kansas City Chiefs beat New York Jets 23-20; Jets +9.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“that Tennessee game I put is it weird? Is I put $50,000 on it, and it's weird to me. You know, the books call to negotiate, and I was like, listen. I'm not going any higher than two and a half.”
3-27 — Tennessee Titans beat Cincinnati Bengals 27-3; Titans +2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I'm gonna trust it, Chad. We're gonna have this one in the contest minus two and a half. Give me the bills.”
20-48 — Buffalo Bills beat Miami Dolphins 48-20; Bills -2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I've already bet this a bunch. This is going to be one of our bets on Sunday. Like, there's a lot of stupid things I did last week. This will not be one that I'll miss. Like, we're gonna have Tennessee in there. If it's at three, two and a half, three and a half, like, I'm hoping it gets to three and a half. But,”
3-27 — Tennessee Titans beat Cincinnati Bengals 27-3; Titans +2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“this year, and he's going against the best pass rush he's seen. I feel like the the Bills, if you can get the two and a half, get it now. Like, it's gonna move. I'm looking right now, and it's literally I'm watching the Action Network lines. I'm watching the lines in actionnetwork.com. It's moving, so you gotta fucking get it. Should I make it Simon Says then? Should we are we telling people they gotta grab it right now? Yeah. You gotta grab it. Make it a Simon Says. Says, Bills.”
20-48 — Buffalo Bills beat Miami Dolphins 48-20; Bills -2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“You always take Green Bay at home as a dog in this spot. If you're scared of the number, there's a bunch of one and a halfs out there. Wong tees it up to seven and a half if you're a coward, but I'll take the one and a half. Like, this this was two and a half, and all the pros came and just slammed it down to one and a half. So a bunch of books are showing one now. I can just see it standing right around here. One, one and a half. I wish I could say it's not that big of a deal, one and a half, but me and Chad won a bunch of money on that saints one and a half. So, clearly, it matters. So that's why the the we always talk about getting the hook. Even on one and a half now, it matters. So, yeah, no brainer bet. Like, suck you can't put in the contest. I I love this number. Love green bay at home.”
34-20 — Detroit Lions beat Green Bay Packers 34-20; Packers +1.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“I I did wanna make this, Simon Says, but no one's gonna listen to me. This is even even I showed the people the results of them covering this number, I still don't think people would bet the bears team. That's how bad they've been. So, yeah, you you have to take the bears here. They're o and three ATS, o and three on the season. This is a great number. They're a home dog against a horrible team that yes. Denver's probably going to win in a last second field goal, but we're getting the hook. We take the three and a half here.”
31-28 — Denver Broncos beat Chicago Bears 31-28; Bears +3.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Carolina is a three and a half point underdog. Love it. Right now oh god. Because remember, don't know how we ended up with Carolina and Eddie Dalton in our contest either. Love it. Last week, love them again this week. It's just Eddie Dalton's eyes, Brad is Bryce Young, and you saw last week that offense put up a lot of points on the road in Seattle. Now they're playing against a horrible Vikings defense at home. Give me give me the three and a half every time. Like, who who the hell I how does the public come in on Kirk? I don't I can't believe this. They're coming in so heavy on Kirk. I get it. Carolina's horrible, but, man, you're you're you're putting a lot on Kirk. I don't know. That's just crazy. It's minus three and a half. So maybe I'm stepping in it, but I I want this so bad to be one of our five just because people are gonna hate it. But three and a half, give it to me every time. I love this number. Bet it bet it all day yesterday. Bet it all today.”
21-13 — Minnesota Vikings beat Carolina Panthers 21-13; Panthers +3.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“Alright. Kansas City at the Jets. It's nine and a half. Joe Namath hates Zach Wilson. This is the defense that is getting wasted. I think Kansas City is if you can say Kansas City is sneaky, like, I think there's some I think their defense is better than it's been in years. Chris Jones is just devastating quarterbacks right now. What are we doing here? Waiting for a 10? Yeah. I've seen there's a book right now. There's a 10. Like, I I I sent a runner to go about it as we're doing this show. So, yeah, I'm gonna grab the 10. We'll be on the jets.”
23-20 — Kansas City Chiefs beat New York Jets 23-20; Jets +10 covers (ESPN box score).
“What are we doing here? Waiting for a 10? Yeah. I've seen there's a book right now. There's a 10. Like, I I I sent a runner to go about it as we're doing this show. So, yeah, I'm gonna grab the 10. We'll be on the jets. I don't know what to tell you, people. Like, this sucks. This is, like, the one of the tougher bets I'll have to make this year”
23-20 — Kansas City Chiefs beat New York Jets 23-20; Jets +10 covers (ESPN box score).
“If people are looking for what favorites I have bet so far, I took the rams. They were minus one against this cold steam.”
23-29 — Los Angeles Rams beat Indianapolis Colts 29-23 (OT); Rams -1 covers (ESPN box score).
“And another favorite I took a small bet on was the saints. The saints are minus three right now. Weird number. I don't know how they can hang that without knowing who the quarterback is. So I think I feel like they know something more than I do. So I'm just gonna throw a little on the saints minus three just in case Tampa, if they do get blown out by this eagles team, I could see this number getting up to four. So”
26-9 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat New Orleans Saints 26-9; Saints -3 busts (ESPN box score).
“Yeah. I don't hate that. I don't hate that at all. Another game. But right now, what would you say? I I would say, like, I got the Texans. I'm comfortable putting in the five. Yeah. I just I just wanna see what the offensive line is. Like, I I'm not putting them in if they still have two starters out on that offensive line. Like, that's it's it's too much to ask of a rookie quarterback with no offensive lineman. Alright. The Pats, they touched three. Now it's down to two and a half, which is interesting to me. I got it at two and a half. We talked about it. We love Bill Belichick in this spot.”
15-10 — New England Patriots beat New York Jets 15-10; Patriots -2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I'm kinda just thinking I gotta take I gotta basically balance it out and bet the browns because it's a pretty good spot for them. And this is the big balls bet of the week. No way. Doesn't this take some balls here, Jed, taking this browns team? It takes massive balls. I actually thought we were gonna go with the Colts against the Ravens. That's fair. But, no, this this one this one takes some balls. Like, of all the bets, all the pros, everyone's saying to me, it's making me feel sick. Every time I bet it at three, I still felt sick. Now it's minus three and a half, and it's like, I still gotta bet this. This is just a sick, sick bet.”
3-27 — Cleveland Browns beat Tennessee Titans 27-3; Browns -3.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Alright. Last week, we talked about the box plus five and a half. It was your Simon Says. It's down to four and a half. You mentioned it in sharp calls. Do you still like it at four and a half? Is it a contest play at four and a half? Yeah. Still like it. Still like it at four and a half. It it's definitely, though, one of the games where, you know, it it could go wrong for us pretty quick, Chad, if if Baker turns back into a pumpkin. That that that's the fear with taking this Bucks number here, but”
11-25 — Philadelphia Eagles beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25-11; Buccaneers +4.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“I think this is one of the highest highest totals of the week, 54. I threw a lid on the over, and that was really it for me on this game, Chad.”
28-24 — Los Angeles Chargers beat Minnesota Vikings 28-24, combined 52; Over 54 busts (ESPN box score).
“I got the Texans a plus nine and a half the other day. It's still settling around nine, eight and a half.”
37-17 — Houston Texans beat Jacksonville Jaguars 37-17; Texans +9.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Yeah. That sucks. So this is my Simon Says bet. I I wanted it at 6, the bucks. It's at 5 and a half. Damn it. So, yeah, I I still like it at 5 and a half. I was hoping to get to six. This this Bucks team, if the Eagles were fully healthy, I'd make this number seven. The Eagles are banged up in the secondary. We might be without our number one, our number two corner, and our number three corner going up against Gawain and Mike Evans. Like, this is a huge deal to this Bucks team in that offense. So,”
PHI 25, TB 11 — Eagles beat the Buccaneers 25-11 on Monday night; Tampa Bay +5.5 lost by 14 (ESPN box score).
“oh, no. I was gonna say this is one of the most bet games, but it's there's a lot of other games that are more bet. So on Sunday night, we talked about the Raiders at plus one and a half. The number has now moved to Raiders minus one and a half. The Raiders do fall into that stat. Now teams are short favorite playing their first home game in week three that you'd want to fade. How do you feel about the Raiders right now as favorites at one and a half against the Steelers? Yeah. We joke all the time about the Spider Man meme and this the Spider Man meme. These are the exact same teams going against each other. There's there's literally nothing different other than Jimmy has the experience, and I can kinda count on Jimmy to make the throws when I need him to. So, yeah, great scenario last week. We we this is why I wanna take the Raiders. Like, they got blown out. The public was going to like Pittsburgh, especially if Pittsburgh won, but the pros came and hammered this number. So even though Pittsburgh won, no one's buying it. Like, the numbers moved from plus one and a half on the Raiders down to minus one and a half. I still like the Raiders. So I I don't hate taking them as a favorite here. I don't hate taking that number. You know, the the Pittsburgh, what an amazing win, but can you rely on your defense to get 14 points every week for you to cover and win these games? I don't think so, especially against this Raider team that they played so bad against the Bills. You know that they're gonna get right this week. So, yeah, looking at this, if if it all comes out that Jimmy is fully healthy, because I don't know if he's injured because he just played so bad in that game, love him to get right, and Josh Jacobs who had one of the worst games I've ever seen by running back last week against the Bills. Great bounce back spot against Pittsburgh who just cannot stop the run. Pittsburgh's run defense is atrocious. So, yeah, love Vegas. Love it at this number.”
PIT 23, LV 18 — Steelers beat the Raiders 23-18; Las Vegas -1.5 lost outright (ESPN box score).
“Right now, the Buffalo Bills are nine and a half point favorites against the Raiders. Stuckey, the in Action Network podcast with Rayburn on Thursday in the Sunday six pack, maybe my favorite episode of a podcast we do, still likes the Bills at nine and a half. Yeah. I I make I told you I made the line 10. So anything under 10, I thought you're getting good value on the Bills. And we're just betting on Josh Allen in a bounce back spot again. Another team that we think there'll be a playoff team, Chad. We expect the Bills to bounce back.”
BUF 38, LV 10 — Bills routed the Raiders 38-10; Buffalo covered -9.5 by a 28-point margin (ESPN box score).
“Evan can back me up here. But Mike Vrabel as a dog, I'm checking my notes, something like what is it? I have it in front of me. Twenty four nine and one in his career when the spread is three or higher. He's twenty four fifteen and one overall against the spread during his career as an underdog. I don't know why this isn't an automatic play for us. Probably will be. No. I'm coming I'm coming around at Tennessee. My I just it's hard for me if this game turns into a shootout that Tannehill can keep up with Herbert. And that's what I'm worried this will turn into because Tennessee has the best run one of the best run defense in the football, but they have one of the worst passing defenses in all football. And Derek Carr just threw for 300 yards on them last week in his first game as a saint. So, yeah, it's a it's a little scary, Chad. But, yeah, if we're going by what all the pros wanna do and what the book says, we're supposed to take Tennessee here. I think my issue is I just have”
TEN 27, LAC 24 — Titans beat the Chargers 27-24 in overtime, winning outright and covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“it's pretty surprising that the the pros did come in on the rams. Like, I just thought they'd be scared off by this 49ers team, but that's just the player. You're taking a home divisional dog. Eight and a half points. There's no way there's no way we couldn't take this number. So, it sucks. It moves so much because we can't take a contest, which I was hoping for. And I was gonna make my big balls better than week, but we're getting a we're getting a bad number here. So that that's why I'm not gonna make it. Listen. We haven't we haven't done a foxhole, and we haven't done a big balls.”
SF 30, LAR 23 — 49ers beat the Rams 30-23; Los Angeles covered +8.5 by a 7-point loss margin (ESPN box score).
“Moneyline, underdog, round robin, Tennessee. No brainer. It sucks Atlanta flip because that would have been a nice one. Yeah. I was just gonna say. Gotta go seahawks. That's a great number. That's such a big number. Houston's kinda cheating because it's only plus one. But I was gonna say Houston, but it felt a little bit weak. Yeah. Let's go big on this one then. Let's go jets too. So we got jets. Why would you do that? We got jets, seahawks Tennessee. Tennessee. Patriots. I like that a lot. And there's a couple I could put here in the five spot that are, like, small small dogs. I'm trying to find I got, like, 8,000 tabs open here. So hold on. I mean, it could be fun going jaguars, pull up the biggest upside. I just I just can't see my humps losing back to back. No. We're not I don't wanna jinx that in any way. You wanna go I can't do it. I can't I can't believe the panthers might win. It's not a terrible spot. No. You know what? Let's go commanders. Hold on. Let me give one last review here. Because I we can't go rams even though I really wanna believe in it. Dude, why wouldn't we do the ravens? Yeah. Yeah. Ravens. Ravens. She's like because I have minus three, so now I'm the cheer cheer for the ravens money line too. Goddamn it. But I guess that is the that is for the fans of the show. Yeah. That's that's probably best one. Fans.”
Round robin parlay busts: the Jets lost 10-30 to the Cowboys and the Patriots lost 17-24 to the Dolphins, while the Titans (27-24 OT), Seahawks (37-31), and Ravens (27-24) all won straight up (ESPN box scores). (Titans 27-24 (W, OT); Seahawks 37-31 (W); Jets 10-30 (L); Patriots 17-24 (L); Ravens 27-24 (W))
“We are taking the Kansas City Chiefs this week. Yeah. And we talked about it. When it was two and a half on on Sunday night, we're saying that's a good number. Two and a half, three. Little did we know, you know, the ownership would finally wake up Monday morning, come to, and it'd like, okay. Let's just pay Chris Jones. Give him a one year deal. Get our guy back for that interior d line. And that's just a big deal of the identity of this team. So we bet it. I didn't put a lot on it. The hope is I take it again here at three with everyone else.”
KC 17, JAX 9 — Chiefs beat Jaguars 17-9 on the road; Kansas City covered -3 by an 8-point margin (ESPN box score).
“I love it. This is my Simon Says game. If you can grab the eight and a half, grab it right now. This is a no brainer game. The Jets have built their defense to stop one man. They didn't build the defense drafting to stop Tua or Mac Jones in that division. When they started building this and Joe Douglas came to this team, there was one guy he had his eye on, and that was Josh Allen. And they built this whole defense to stop Josh Allen. They have incredible speed on the outside, and corners were really big and strong and really hard to and tough in coverage. So horrible game by Josh. He tried doing too much, and they kinda had him in that scenario of he he obviously would never say he was seeing ghost, but that's what he was. The same guy picked him off three times, Chad. Like, that is an insane stat. This guy one of my favorite things ever, his bonus was tied to him getting three picks this year. So that guy has 250 k bonus for this season in week one. So easy easiest buy low of the week. I still have this number at 10 for Buffalo. So the fact that we're getting a point and a half now and they're moving through key numbers, I love I love this spot for the Bills. Such a great bounce back spot.”
BUF 38, LV 10 — Bills routed the Raiders 38-10; Buffalo covered -8.5 by a 28-point margin (ESPN box score).
“they might get a little luckier, the charge. I thought this number is gonna move more because you saw Austin Eckler popped up on the injury report, and he might miss this game. So I'm a little shocked, Chad, that it didn't drop. That's the only thing giving me hesitation right now. I thought the books would move this to two and a half to get some chargers money, but they're holding at minus three. So definitely a number we're gonna keep our eye on this upcoming week. I've already bet it. I mean, I'm gonna put a lot on the three.”
TEN 27, LAC 24 — Titans beat the Chargers 27-24 in overtime, winning outright and covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“Indianapolis on the road, one and a half point favorite at the Houston Texans. This is a tough one. And, like, I watched that Colts game. They really outplayed the Jags, and they should have won that game outright. Forget about covering. But that Texans defense was so freaking good. It's just a couple of adjustments from CJ Stroud, and I don't I don't know that the Colts are good enough to be favorites on the road, and this feels like a huge overreaction. Yeah. Another great Wong teaser line too. You can take Houston up right now to seven and a half, put him in a six point teaser. If you just wanna bet that these both these rookies are lost, just take the under. I mean, it's just there's a bunch of bets you can make out of this game and try to find value on. And, you know, I I look at this Houston team that they're probably being undervalued here. The public is going to like what they saw from the cold. Chad's nailing it. Like, they should've covered that number. If Minshew hadn't come in, they had a first in goal with their six six two fifty quarterback. I'm pretty sure they would have scored and covered that number. So, I think most people, instead of being burned on betting the colts last week, the pros will probably come back in on them, and the public would join them just because they looked like the better team. Houston did not that that offense did not look like they're really gonna be putting up points this year. And so for me and Chad, we gotta fade that notion and just be like, that's a really good Ravens defense. That was a rookie's first start on the road, a head coach's first start on the road. Now they're back home in this spot facing a rookie quarterback and a rookie head coach. We gotta take the dog. Like, this is one of these Houston ones. I don't feel great about it, Chad, but it's like, there's a couple games this week that's just like the Arizona game last week. Like, You gotta trust the number and and view a team being overrated. Just hold your nose and take this number. So, yeah, I'll have the under. I'll have Houston tees, and I'll take Houston straight in this number.”
IND 31, HOU 20 — Colts beat the Texans 31-20 on the road; Houston +1.5 lost by 11 (ESPN box score).
“We're betting the Rams. Yeah. No brainer. Home divisional dog, eight and a half.”
SF 30, LAR 23 — 49ers beat the Rams 30-23; Los Angeles covered +8.5 by a 7-point loss margin (ESPN box score).
“But feels like a good number. Like, this this Cleveland team, you can say what you want about Watson last week. He made the plays that Joe Burrow couldn't. Like, he was making the same he was throwing the same weather that Joe Burrow was dealing with, and he was making the throws when he had to. So, I'm excited to really kinda see what we got here from Watson. Because this is another big game of they win this, Chad, They're in the driver's seat of winning this division and making the playoffs. And this is we've talked to Nazi about the Browns team. This is the year. Like, next year, the Watson contract kicks in. So this is really it for this Browns team. And, you know, great teams in week two, they kind of upset and shocked the world. And this would be one of those like, this I don't know if this would shock the world, but this would shock me, Cleveland winning this game. So I I gotta take the number minus two and a half.”
PIT 26, CLE 22 — Steelers beat the Browns 26-22 on Monday night; Cleveland -2.5 lost outright (ESPN box score).
“please tell me right now, have you already bet the Tennessee titans as three point dogs Yeah. Against the Los Angeles chargers? That is a coaching mismatch. Yeah. It's already moved to two and a half in a lot of books. So if you do want the three, I I would grab that now because I do see a drop in a two and a half.”
LAC 24-TEN 27 — Titans beat Chargers 27-24 (OT) on Sept 18, 2023 (MNF, kicked off Sept 17); Titans +3 covers as an outright winner (ESPN Week 2 scoreboard).
“Give me the seahawks, five and a half traveling to Detroit to face this Detroit team after”
SEA 37-DET 31 — Seahawks beat Lions 37-31 (OT) on Sept 17, 2023; Seahawks +5.5 covers as an outright winner (ESPN Week 2 scoreboard).
“I'm all in on the chargers versus eagles Super Bowl, which you can get right now at bet three six five at 50 to one.”
Super Bowl LVIII was played between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs (Chiefs won 25-22 in OT); neither the Chargers nor the Eagles reached the Super Bowl, so the futures bet lost.
“I'm just gonna take the Chiefs money line. Like, why would I not take it? It's it's dropped in price, that's where the value is. There's a couple games on here that are big balls foxholes that we're gonna wanna put in, but not this next one. Because I think we can both agree, Fucking love the New England Patriots as home dogs against the Philadelphia Eagles at plus three and a half, and there's there's not much to me that we disagree on for this, and it's gonna be one that we wanna put into the contest. Yeah. Pretty easy or just an an untested young defensive starters on this Eagles team.”
NE 20-PHI 25 — Eagles beat Patriots 25-20 on Sept 10, 2023; Patriots +3.5 busts with a 5-point loss (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“Houston Texans plus 10.”
HOU 9-BAL 25 — Ravens beat Texans 25-9 on Sept 10, 2023; Texans +10 busts with a 16-point loss (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“The colts plus five and a half. We gotta love the colts. That's the foxhole,”
JAX 31-IND 21 — Jaguars beat Colts 31-21 on Sept 10, 2023; Colts +5.5 busts with a 10-point loss (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“Like, Washington's one of those teams where it's like, I'm I'm taking their money line. I'm throwing it with the chief's money line.”
ARI 16-WSH 20 — Commanders beat Cardinals 20-16 on Sept 10, 2023; Commanders moneyline wins (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“I bet the lions plus six and a half on Saturday. While I was making college football bets, I saw it sitting there, and I'm like, why am I waiting?”
DET 21-KC 20 — Lions beat Chiefs 21-20 on Sept 7, 2023; Lions +6.5 covers easily as an outright winner (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“but I will be betting the falcons at minus three and a half.”
CAR 10-ATL 24 — Falcons beat Panthers 24-10 on Sept 10, 2023; Falcons -3.5 covers with a 14-point margin (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“Yeah. I mean, just and then I'm looking at it right now. Candidate. This is a big balls candidate. I'm just saying it right now. Definitely. And, like, what you just talked about, I'm just looking at it right now. It's it is up to a lot of books at five and a half. So, another game that I was gonna make my Simon Says, but the way the money's coming in and the tickets, it it could get the six. So, the fear here, Chad, is what I talked about months ago is we're backing a rookie head coach and a rookie QB in week one. So the the fear is this coach doesn't know how to prepare right, and he doesn't have the team prepared right, and it's a bad spot to step in. But what makes me have to make this bet and Chad is the Jags are the team. I mean, people nonstop and talking about them all summer. So now we're in a spot to fade the team that has been hyped up all summer.”
JAX 31-IND 21 — Jaguars beat Colts 31-21 on Sept 10, 2023; Colts -5.5 busts, losing outright (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“this is one of these games I have to take Arizona in the seven.”
ARI 16-WSH 20 — Commanders beat Cardinals 20-16 on Sept 10, 2023; Cardinals +7 covers with a 4-point loss (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“Sign me up for the Houston Texans plus 10. Simon says Houston plus 10.”
HOU 9-BAL 25 — Ravens beat Texans 25-9 on Sept 10, 2023; Texans +10 busts with a 16-point loss (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“So plus four, yeah, gotta take the Patriots.”
NE 20-PHI 25 — Eagles beat Patriots 25-20 on Sept 10, 2023; Patriots +4 busts with a 5-point loss (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“we gotta take what I think is the better quarterback and the better coach at three and a half opening night at home in prime time.”
DAL 40-NYG 0 — Cowboys beat Giants 40-0 on Sept 10, 2023; Giants +3.5 busts with a 40-point loss (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“I'm all in on the saints, Chad. Divisional odds, to me, it's it's the best number of all the teams where they're in a division where it's all these young teams that are just kinda thrown together at this point.”
Tampa Bay (9-8) won the NFC South on a tiebreaker over New Orleans (also 9-8); the Saints did not win the division (ESPN standings).
“this is a new one for me. And I can't say the name of the book, but it's the only book that has Pittsburgh 60 to one Super Bowl futures. And it's about Kenny taking that near two step. We talk all the time, Chad. I took a lot of heat when I got back here to Jersey from a lot of pros, because I'm willing to give the benefit of doubt to a lot these quarterbacks taking that next step. I was giving no love to Kenny. And, you know, I I don't take too much from preseason football because teams are just running shell defenses. Right? They're running cover two or they're running the zone, and that's really it. They're not really throwing anything at you. But what I wanted to see was Kenny was put the ball down 20 yards down the field, and he did it multiple times. And not only was he doing it, he was looking for their best receiver in picking. So, you know, it's it's one of those where I'm just playing a number. At bet three six five right now, I believe it's 40 to one Pittsburgh. So that's why I'm saying shop around. You can get way better odds right now on this team at this book that again, go to the action app. I put it in there, the exact book. That's a great number to take on a Pittsburgh team that I love teams that play in really hard divisions. Because that means when they get through it, if they get to the wild card, they get they win the division. They've already been through it. They've been playing playoff football since December. That's what I feel like we have in that AFC North. Right? Every team is just really good. So, you know, they got all the weapons. Right? Offensively, the biggest question to me is their offensive line. I do think it's looked better this preseason. So, yeah, 60 to one Pittsburgh, Chad. That's that's my favorite bet right now for long shots, super pods.”
17-31 — Pittsburgh lost 17-31 to Buffalo in the 2023-24 Wild Card round and did not win the Super Bowl; Kansas City won Super Bowl LVIII (Wikipedia 2023-24 NFL playoffs).
“I will be betting on them to go over their win total and to win this division. It's just it's a smart bet to make.”
Dallas (12-5) won the NFC East over Philadelphia (11-6) in 2023 (ESPN standings).
“So I am not shocked to see that they have him at six and a half wins just because this division's so tough. I mean, the eagles are really good. Cowboys are really good. Arguably, both are top three teams in NFC. And then you have a giants team that's an overachieving team that's just really tough, well coached. And, you know, Washington, I still think they're a couple pieces away from being a above 500 team. And last year, they almost got there. Right? They were almost in the playoffs. If they had just beaten the Giants, they probably would've been able to get in at towards the end of the season. But, you know, they're just a team that they don't have a winning culture, and they haven't really brought in players that have ever won either across the league. It's it's kind of a team of, you know, of guys that are just trying to find their way at this point. So when I when I'm looking at this Washington team, I was shocked it was six and a half because I thought, wow. That that seems low. And then as the months have gone on, it's like, no. That's a good number. Like, they're they they could steal again, get lucky here or there, and maybe get the seven or eight wins. But as a better, we don't bet on that. We bet on the numbers and what we think is gonna happen, and I'm gonna take the under here on a team that it'll be great for them. Right? If if he can show out and have huge moments, that'd be great for them because they just haven't had a quarterback, and that's been such a huge issue for this team. I mean, Kirk left, what is it, six, seven years ago, and they just really haven't found anyone to replace him since he's left. So, yeah, for me, Washington, I don't care if they made these guys 15 or 20 to one. I just wouldn't take them to this division. I just there's not scenario where I see them being better than the cowboys or better than the eagles. So for for divisional odds, I wouldn't touch it. And if I'm gonna take an under, it's gonna be on the eagles, and it's gonna be on Washington. I think both these teams have good value towards the under this upcoming season.”
Commanders finished the 2023 regular season 4-13, well under the 6.5-win total (ESPN standings). (Commanders 4-13)
“But I did bet their win total over 10 and a half is just too low. Like, that to me is an overreaction to the Rogers being in their division”
Bills finished the 2023 regular season 11-6, over the 10.5-win total (ESPN standings). (Bills 11-6)
“The only bet I really made us seem is Tyrekiel. Once again, the lead the lead in receiving yards just because the man himself has set his goal is 2,000 yards.”
Tyreek Hill led the NFL with 1,799 receiving yards in 2023 (ESPN receiving leaders). (Hill 1,799 receiving yards (NFL leader))
“So I am staunchly on their under right now. I got them at 8.5 wins for this season. That's a full game under the nine and a half. I love the value on this team taking their under.”
Jets finished the 2023 regular season 7-10, under the 9.5-win total (ESPN standings). (Jets 7-10)
“But we're sitting here eight to one for them to win this division on bet three six five. I love that number, Chad.”
Buffalo (11-6) won the AFC East on a tiebreaker over Miami (also 11-6); New England finished 4-13 and did not win the division (ESPN standings).
“New Orleans Saints plus one twenty. Atlanta Falcons plus two twenty. Carolina plus 400. Tampa Bay plus 700. Let's start from the bottom up. Okay? So Tampa Bay, plus 700. Six and a half is the win total. That plus one ten for the over minus one forty for the under. A dreadful, dreadful team. The we don't know who the quarterback's gonna be. Their defensive line used to be the strength of their team ranked in the bottom 10 by Pro Football Focus. I don't know, man. They got they got the tenth hardest schedule in the NFL. No wonder the under is plus is minus one forty. Yeah. It's just a real shame they don't have a quarterback. If only Tom Brady was still on their team, they'd probably have another shot at winning this division again, but he he ain't there. It it was a Trask and Baker fighting for the number one quarterback position right now. So, yeah, just again, you won a Super Bowl three years ago. You sold your soul. I don't think any Tampa Bay fan's gonna complain. It's it is what it is. You guys are incredibly talented at the wide receiver position and at the linebacker position, and that's it. That's that's basically what you guys have. You have really high level talent those those spots. The rest of the team is just gutted. So the offensive line might be a little better, obviously, than it was last year with all the injuries I had last year, but you lost Tom Brady. It's just everyone's gonna bet the under. I mean, I know a couple pros that they're very contrarian. They're like, you have to take the over on this. It's just I asked them to give me five good reasons to take this over, and I think that each of them got the two, and that was about it. And they were like, yep. I I guess this is kinda forcing it here. So if they were a smart team, they would start track, see what they have in the kid, let them be terrible. You can get, you know, a top four, top five pick, get Quarterback of the future and restart over. But to me, this is the team that you know, six and a half that's my only fear is that six and a half, they just feel so high. I just don't understand why this wasn't five and a half five because that's what I have it modeled out at. So that's my only fear when the books have numbers like this that I just seem really off. They have their reasons. They know what they're doing. And everyone in the world's betting this under, and they really haven't moved this number too much. So it's my only real pause, but I got no issue taking this under. I got it off by a game and a half. So, yeah, under six and a half.”
Buccaneers finished the 2023 regular season 9-8, over the 6.5-win total (ESPN standings). (Buccaneers 9-8)
“Carolina panthers plus 400 to win the division. The win total is seven and a half minus one twenty five at bet three six five, plus 100 to the under at the seven and a half. There's only two quarterbacks that are in Sean Kerner's QB tiers for fantasy that are in tier seven from this division. David Carr and Bryce Young. Garrett Carr, you always call him David. It's so true. Do you know why? Do you wanna know why? Because you got some type of story. Because I oh, there you go. Not you sound like you sound like my 20 year old who when I'll say you wanna know why? I'll go, oh god. Tell me why. I was I was just assuming you're gonna be like and I I visited him in Houston. I was staying at his house for a week while I was writing a piece on him for ESPN. Dude, that's exactly what was gonna say. That's what I was really? It's exact it's exactly what I was gonna say. Way too much time together, Chad. So Derek Carr and Bryce Young. I don't know, man. Like, I'm not a buyer. I'm not a buyer on Bryce Young. I'm not a buyer on the Panthers team. We have been big Panthers betters in the past and love them. Their their defensive line, according to, according to is you say sick. Says good, not great. They got Brian Burns. We know they got He's an absolute stud if you don't know who he is. Total stud. Right? Contract year, he will get Nick Bosa, Joey Bosa like money when his deal is up. Nick Bosa right now is sitting out trying to get a better deal from the niners. He wants that, you know, TJ Watt, that Joey Bosa standard deal. Brian Burns is in camp. He is playing. He's gonna go through the year. He will get that deal if he is anything close to what he's been in the past couple years. Derrick Brown, defensive tackle, one of the highest graded defensive tackles according to But that might be the best unit of their whole team. Yeah. Got rid J. Moore. If if You know? It's gonna shock people because I literally all I do is just shit on Bryce Young for six months, and it cost me a lot of money. No fault of his own. But I I love this team, Chad. I know that people are out on me. I know. I know. If I'm if I'm gonna go alongside this division, it's not Atlanta for me. It's this team. And I think it's because Bryce Young to me is the most ready quarterback. Like, do I think his career longevity wise is gonna be great? No. I think he is too in his size. He won't be able to take hits. But for year one, I love the upside of him. He's just I don't know if I've ever had a QB smarter coming out of college. Like, this kid is football wise, he's a genius. Like, he is so good at reading defenses. He's so good at making mistakes and not making the same mistake again. Like, he's just that's why it took him number one. Like, the kid is already made, and, you know, they're gonna talk about his ceiling and everything like that. To me, like, this is his ceiling. Like, the next year or two, I just don't know how he's gonna keep getting better. It's it's all there. So, you know, I'm with you, Chad. They're they got they got holes, but I do think their defense is incredibly strong. Like, this is a really good defensive unit. Frank Reich historically has always started slow. Like, if you go back and look at his years with the Colts, I mean, I have ask Evan Abrams, but I feel like he never won week one or two. Right? It wasn't that always a weird thing with this with them coaching them. Like, they just always started slow. So Yeah. Maybe I'd be better off waiting in season, getting better odds on them divisionally and their win total over, but, you know, I've already bet it. So I I got them eight and a half wins for the year. So, obviously, I'm taking the over seven and a half. Divisionally, Bet three six five hasn't met plus 400.”
Panthers finished the 2023 regular season 2-15, well under the 7.5-win total (ESPN standings). (Panthers 2-15)
“So this is the only other time I'm going chalk is the saints. I just I like the number plus one twenty, plus one thirty. I like the over nine and a half. They're just not that Derek Carr's gotta be feeling the pressure, but this kinda feels like a make or break season for him. Right? He's kinda left for dead here. If he does have a really bad year, I think they'd easily move on from him. But, you know, this is it's just all there from there's no real excuses. Like, offensive line is not that terrible. It's not as bad as it was in Oakland I mean, Las Vegas. And, you know, on the outside, if Michael Thomas can come back to form, that's an incredible number two to have. Like because I do think Chris Lavi is number one on this team. So it's all there, Chad. It's all there for them to be better this year. The the big question is Derek Carr. So I'm a Derek Carr believer. I always have been. I just I like the kid. I think last year, a lot was on him. He melted down as well. I'm gonna put a lot of it on Josh McDaniel too. I just didn't think he put him in the best position. He clearly didn't believe in him. I mean, they could have moved on from him any quicker in this offseason. So, to me, I like him in a revenge bounce back spot, veteran quarterback on a team that they're just in such a weak division. Like, if they're any any if they're in the NFC East, you know, if they're in some of these other divisions, I would not be this high on this team. But they're in the NFC South, and this team is just a wasteland right now of quarterbacks. And Derek Carr is by far the best quarterback in this division, has the most talent on his team. I I gotta take this number, Chad. I'm trying not not trying not to be biased, where I just love taking the big dogs. I do like Carolina, but in reality, my big my biggest bet right now is this team to win this division.”
Tampa Bay (9-8) won the NFC South on a tiebreaker over New Orleans (also 9-8); the Saints did not win the division (ESPN standings).
“New Orleans Saints at plus one twenty to win the division and over nine and a half at plus 100. I mean, plus money on both.”
Saints finished the 2023 regular season 9-8, under the 9.5-win total (ESPN standings). (Saints 9-8)
“when we look at all these other divisions, Chad, there is a clear drop off in this division compared to the other ones. So to me, the Jaguars, if they can't run away with this division, if they can't hit this over, right, think what is it? Nine and a half win total? Nine and a half minus one forty is the over. And that's That bet you're saying. That's one the most bet overs right now, all the sports books. Gonna take it. I got them at 10.7, so that means I'm at over 10 and a half wins. So I'll take the over of nine and a half. It's just there's not crazy value there. Everyone the secret's out. Right, Chad? Everyone knows about this Jaguars team. Everyone's been talking about Calvin Ridley. So”
Jaguars finished the 2023 regular season 9-8, under the 9.5-win total. (JAX 9-8)
“That brings us to the Indianapolis Colts who are plus 600 to win the division. They are at, six and a half wins minus one twenty five to the over. Your favorite player in the NFL, Anthony Richardson, you think he will end up being the best player out of this draft class. You're enamored by his athleticism. I will tell you that Sean Kerner already has Anthony Richardson, we're talking about fantasy tiers, in tier Five. He says Sean Kroner, and you can read this at actionnetwork.com. He has top 10 upside as soon as he becomes a starter Yep. Which kinda goes with what you've been saying. And if you listen to it, we had on Chris and Sean, what was it? A couple a month ago, talking fantasy. He was being drafted to QB 15 at that time, Anthony Richardson. And I said I would take him well above that just because his upside was so high. Now if you look, most drafts, he's going top 10. So Yep. This this past offseason was the first time I ever did consulting work for an NFL team. Chad knows this. And I basically when I went in there in January, and I said this was my guy, my number one QB to draft, I basically could hear a pin drop, Chad. Not laughed out of the room. It was more like, who the hell is this guy? Why are we paying him? And why is he telling us to draft this kid who most teams had a second round grade on him. So that was this is one of these moments where I really enjoyed doing consulting work. Like, working for these NFL teams was cool as shit. So I'm hoping this kid pans out because I really am tied to him now. Like, if he is good and the team I work for, the the QB they drafted is not good, that's really good for me because I was so big on this kid, and no one else there was. Like, literally, these people looked at me like I was crazy when I mentioned his name. So I'm gonna be biased about Anthony Richardson. I can already tell everything he's done in this preseason, Chad, is what I envisioned. A big body, big strong-arm, great athlete. Everything about him just remind me of a smarter, faster version of Cam Newton, and it's it's looking that way right now. So I don't if you remember Cam Newton's rookie year. It was historical. Now do I think he's gonna do that? Most likely not. We've never seen anything like that. I think Cam threw for 4,000 yards. The big reason was Cam had Steve Smith. Like, if you're going to bring in a rookie quarterback and have a hall of famer wide receiver with him, Steve Smith was the guy to do it with. Right? That that was a perfect one two for Cam Newton. Anthony Richardson, man, I am beyond hyped about this kid. Like, I think someone put up his numbers the other day. He is six four, and he wants to play at two fifty. Six four playing at two fifty, and he can run a sub four four forty. It's it's crazy. I can't believe he wasn't the first or second quarterback drafted, but it's irrelevant now. It's the deed is done. He's on the colts. And, you know, the colts had coach. He did wonders with Jalen Hurts, and now he's getting Anthony Richardson a even bigger, better athlete. Now it's a to me, it's a three year plan with Anthony Richardson. Do I think he's gonna come out this year and have major make major mistakes? Of course. This kid is just raw. He is a raw ball of town. So I'm not betting on them to win the division. I won't waste money there. Me and Chad already talked about it. It's gonna either be Tennessee or nothing for me in this division. But with the colts, six and a half over over under wins, I like the value towards the over. To me, this is a team that could easily get to seven, eight wins this upcoming season”
Colts finished the 2023 regular season 9-8, over the 6.5-win total. (IND 9-8)
“And we probably like Houston under five and a half wins. Also, a lot of juice at minus one sixty.”
Texans finished the 2023 regular season 10-7, well over the 5.5-win total. (HOU 10-7)
“By the time I made the bet on the Ravens, I didn't know that. So I was basically just hedging my already bet that I already had in Cleveland, on this Ravens team.”
The Baltimore Ravens (13-4) won the AFC North; the Cleveland Browns finished 11-6 as a wild card, not division winner.
“We're we're playing fire here, but over eight and a half, we're gonna be on it. It sucks it's all up to minus one seventy.”
Browns finished the 2023 regular season 11-6, over the 8.5-win total. (CLE 11-6)
“So I I threw a small bet on their overwin total. I believe it's 9 and a half.”
Ravens finished the 2023 regular season 13-4, over the 9.5-win total. (BAL 13-4)
“It's it's gonna be hard to see them stealing games from the 49ers, the Rams, and and Seattle there, but, you know, it's just just a really tough schedule for this this steelers team. So, week one, me and Chad love them plus three at home against the 40.”
7-30 — 49ers beat Steelers 30-7 in Week 1 (Sept 10, 2023); Steelers +3 fails to cover (margin -23).
“So my favorite bet right now for this this division is them at plus 400 to win this division, the over seven and a half. I just think it's all there for this Bears team.”
The Detroit Lions (12-5) won the NFC North; the Chicago Bears finished 7-10, last in the division.
“the over seven and a half. I just think it's all there for this Bears team. And the only fear, Chad, for me right now is we're a year early. Like, if if they don't take the step next year, could easily see them taking it next year, but I'm not gonna wait to bet on it. I mean, I'm gonna bet it this year just because I think it's all there for them to make a ten and seven,”
Bears finished the 2023 regular season 7-10, under the 7.5-win total. (CHI 7-10)
“definitely a make or break season for Kirk Cousins' Vikings team. I'm gonna think they fall underneath the pressure. I'm gonna take that under eight and a half.”
Vikings finished the 2023 regular season 7-10, under the 8.5-win total. (MIN 7-10)
“don't love it, Chad. The nine and a half is a little scary too. I got them in nine and eight. Right? I I think that's that's a fair number for this team where I do think they're gonna win some games, but Rich also talked about they have a hard schedule. So, you know, I'm sorry to dampen Detroit fans. I mean, they don't care. They're all in. They're all hyped up. They're probably gonna be like, you guys are bear homers anyway. But to me, that's where the value is in this division. I think the bears, to me, are the value. I think Rich, he thought it was Green Bay. You're not gonna hear too many pros say no. No. No. The lions, that's where the value is in this division. Plus one thirty? Come on, sportsbooks. This should be plus one seventy, plus one eighty. Like, there's just there's no way I think this team is an easy pick to win this division. There's just too many questions on this team. So, you know, I won't be taking their over, won't be betting their division odds, won't be betting their supervillades. But in season, can already tell, Chad, we're definitely gonna be taking this Lions team. They're gonna have great matchups, diff different points of the year where, you know, for four and five, four and six, people are gonna be pissed off. They're gonna be leaving there for dead. That's where I mean you step in, Chad. Like, those are our favorite teams that people are leaving them for dead, we know the talent's still there. Nothing's changed. And we saw last year this team improved every week, and that's what you're looking for from their head coach. So, sorry to say the Lions fans, you're just you're overvalued right now. Like, even you guys know you guys are overvalued right now. So that's the thing. You just gotta rein people in here. Like, again, we're not shitting your team. Won't be shocked at end the year if you guys win this division. You are a playoff team, but I just don't think the value is there. So this is the team I will be taking a small bet on their under.”
Lions finished the 2023 regular season 12-5, well over the 9.5-win total. (DET 12-5)
“I would still take the under at six and a half. I have them at six wins.”
Raiders finished the 2023 regular season 8-9, over the 6.5-win total. (LV 8-9)
“Well, I mean, for a loyal listener to show, you know, my biggest bet early in the season for Wynn told us was the Raiders under. The Raiders open at seven and a half minus one forty.”
Raiders finished the 2023 regular season 8-9, over the 7.5-win total. (LV 8-9)
“We like the chiefs plus five fifty to win the division. No. Denver broncos. Denver broncos. I mean, I'm sorry. The, broncos plus five fifty to win the division.”
The Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) won the AFC West; the Denver Broncos finished 8-9 and did not win the division.
“The broncos, over eight and a half wins. You can still get that at minus one ten at bet three six five.”
Broncos finished the 2023 regular season 8-9, under the 8.5-win total. (DEN 8-9)
“I'm just gonna be betting on regression this year for the Chiefs. So, yeah, best best bet for this Chiefs team. Not gonna do anything divisional. Not gonna do any Super Bowl futures. I'm just gonna take the under 11 and a half.”
Chiefs finished the 2023 regular season 11-6, under the 11.5-win total. (KC 11-6)
“I have no doubt they'll cross this 11 and a half number. But if you're betting off a model, no models are gonna tell you to take this over. It's just a bad number. It's just a public number too. Like, the books, I'm shocked they even dropped to 11. I guess they're they know there's not enough people that bet that plus number 11 half to take the over. So to me, it's it's a good number. Ten and seven, eleven and six, that's right where the 49ers are probably gonna finish this year. So I'm I'm happy to take that under, Chad. Well, that's what's interesting about the niners. Quick note. Don't know, Jeffrey. It's my podcast.”
49ers finished the 2023 regular season 12-5, over the 11.5-win total. (SF 12-5)
“Rams plus one zero five over six and a half”
Rams finished the 2023 regular season 10-7, over the 6.5-win total. (LAR 10-7)
“But shouldn't we be going all in on the rams? Simon, you first at plus 900 and over six and a half? Yeah. I didn't wanna stop you, Chad, because I respect you that much when you said Stafford. You're unsure about him. What's there to be unsure about? The man is on the man has been in camp. He did the off season program.”
The 49ers won the NFC West at 12-5; the Rams finished second at 10-7 (ESPN 2023 standings).
“Arizona maybe can do it, but I just don't believe it. So to me, Chad, I hate going with the public. This is one of most this is one the most heavily bet public bets right now. I saw Action tweeted out earlier today, the under four and a half. I'll deal with Chad. I'll join the public, I'll take the under four and a half. It just feels like the right number for a team that just has no identity right now. We did bet the Texans under four and a half, I think, last year or two years ago,”
Cardinals finished the 2023 regular season 4-13, under the 4.5-win total. (ARI 4-13)
“this is the year to do [21:49] it for atlanta so already already got my falcons future in”
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the 2023 NFC South at 9-8; the Falcons finished 3rd at 7-10, so the division-winner futures bet lost.
“Yeah. I did I did the lazy bet of I took nuggets minus one and a half for the series. So I took them to win in six, hopefully.”
4-1 — Nuggets beat Heat 4-1 in the 2023 Finals, clinching Game 5 94-89 on June 12, 2023 — a series win in 5, within 'win in 6 or fewer,' and covering -1.5.
“Talking to a couple pros after that game last night, one of their favorite guys to fade in this upcoming upcoming series is Caleb Martin's total. So if if it's if it's over under 10 and a half points, I'm gonna be on that under for sure.”
Caleb Martin scored 3, 3, 10, 11, and 10 points across Games 1-5 of the 2023 NBA Finals (7.4 ppg average) — under 10.5 in every single game and on average. (Caleb Martin Finals: 3, 3, 10, 11, 10 pts (7.4 ppg avg))
“I'm all in on Anthony Richardson. He's my I already talked about I bet him for rookie of the year every week.”
2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year was C.J. Stroud, not Anthony Richardson.
“Rams. Rams plus six against the Seahawks. The Seahawks, Chad. What what in the world? The Rams are plus six? Unless Stafford's arm really fell off and Cooper Kupp's not gonna be back. This is an insane line. This is truly an insane line. I I get people are thinking the Rams are done. They're finished. Stafford's completely done. I haven't seen any of that anywhere. Right? Everything I've seen, he's hoping to be back for the start of the season, same with Cooper Kupp. So to me, this is one of those I just threw a bet on it just in case the number does drop once he is back officially.”
30-13 — Rams beat Seahawks 30-13 outright in Week 1 (Sept 10, 2023), easily covering +6.
“I actually bet the other side. I was on the Patriots at minus three I mean, plus three and a half. I was on the Patriots at plus four. If you log in right now to bet three six five, it's up to plus five for the state of agency.”
25-20 — Eagles beat Patriots 25-20 in Week 1 (Sept 10, 2023); Patriots lost by 5, one point outside the +4 line.
“The Vikings minus six and a half, Chad.”
20-17 — Vikings lost outright to Buccaneers 20-17 in Week 1 (Sept 10, 2023), missing -6.5 by a wide margin.
“It's the Browns. Like, we Browns plus two and a half against the Bengals right now. We have to do it. Like, that is the stinkiest, fishiest line. The public is going to be hammering Cincy in this spot.”
24-3 — Browns beat Bengals 24-3 outright in Week 1 (Sept 10, 2023), crushing the +2.5 number.
“11 half is very, very rich for a Bengals team that had a lot of good breaks last year. Right? They weren't the best in their division. The Ravens were clearly gonna win that division till Lamar went down. Then they're able to catch up to them. Yes. Joe Burrow is incredible. They have an incredible team. But they have a lot of stuff coming up right now where they're about to pay Joe Burrow. So I agree with people. This is probably their last real year to make a run, but it's such a tough division. We've seen it time and time again. That North is just a brutally tough division. I can't see them getting to 11 wins, Chad. That's just really rich. So the fact that it's 11 and a half, I love that under. I know it's up to minus one twenty in most books now. I'd still take it. I'd take it down to 10 and a half. To me, that's where it should be now that division's settled in now. There is no easy game for them. Right? They they were first in their division. Means we're gonna play a first place schedule.”
Bengals finished the 2023 NFL regular season 9-8, under the 11.5 win total (ESPN standings). (9-8)
“I want Anthony Richardson for offensive rookie of the year. I just I just love the spot he landed in. I love the colts.”
C.J. Stroud won the 2023 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, not Anthony Richardson.
“And my biggest bet still was the over one and a half running backs taken. Just Gibson to me, the Alabama kid like, we already talked about it.”
Two running backs, Bijan Robinson (No. 8) and Jahmyr Gibbs (No. 12), were drafted in round 1, clearing the over 1.5 (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“my my favorite bet still, Chad, for first defender taken is still Jalen Carter. I just still see somehow [30:50] the seahawks or Detroit taking him with that that pick when they get to him.”
The first defensive player drafted was Will Anderson Jr. at No. 3, not Jalen Carter, who went No. 9 (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“Will Anderson over three and a half, [23:43] I I couldn't bet enough on that. I really couldn't. I mean, it was one of those bets I just kept making over the weekend.”
Will Anderson Jr. was drafted No. 3 overall by Houston, which is under the 3.5 line, so the over lost (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“So I like to chat over one and a half running backs taking the first round. I think it was plus one ten.”
Two running backs, Bijan Robinson (No. 8) and Jahmyr Gibbs (No. 12), were drafted in round 1, clearing the over 1.5 (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“Robinson be a top 10 pick, Chad. Love it. I I love this pick so much.”
Bijan Robinson was drafted No. 8 overall by Atlanta, inside the top 10 (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“I still I still have a little bit of money on Jalen Carter to be the first defensive player to take.”
The first defensive player drafted was Will Anderson Jr. at No. 3; Jalen Carter went No. 9, so Carter was not the first defensive player off the board (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“I I can't stop doing what I keep doing, but I keep betting more money on CJ Stroud to be a top [44:16] three, top two, top one pick.”
C.J. Stroud was drafted No. 2 overall by Houston, inside the top 3 (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“So bad read by me. Definitely gonna looking like I'm gonna take on the chin, but I'm a psycho. Like, I already bet more on CJ to be the first pick still. Kinda digging my feet in a little bit about it.”
Bryce Young was the No. 1 overall pick (Carolina Panthers); C.J. Stroud went No. 2 to Houston, so Stroud was not the No. 1 overall pick (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“I bet at 25 to 1 and 21, Zay Flowers to be the number one pick for wide receivers. [38:13] We've seen his odds go way, way up after he's had a couple workouts.”
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the first wide receiver drafted, at pick No. 20 (Seattle); Zay Flowers went No. 22 to Baltimore, so Flowers was not the first WR off the board (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“I'm not sure you hear what Travis has say about it, but, you know, they're plus two thirty right now to make that pick in the third spot, at FanDuel. And to me, you know, they're a team that that makes sense in that division. You got Trevor Lawrence. So if they move in that three spot, they'd have hoo Houston ahead of them, which obviously is drafting a quarterback, we think, or they maybe they're they're not. Then you have them in the three spot. Then right behind me, you have the Colts. So, pretty crazy. AFC South are all going in on quarterbacks. They're all, you know, trying to make that next move. I just I I wanna believe it's Tennessee, but, like, people keep saying, it's all rumors, Chad. Everything we're hearing now is just strictly rumors. Nothing set in stone. So the reason I'm Ben is just feels like good value at 02:30. When there's smoke, there's fire. There's a lot of smoke right now in Tennessee moving to that three hole. So what do you think about this going on right now, Travis?”
The Houston Texans traded up to make the No. 3 overall pick (Will Anderson Jr.) in the 2023 NFL Draft; the Titans picked 11th (Peter Skoronski), so the Titans-at-No.-3 bet lost.
“I bet Kent State plus four and a half.”
IU 71, KENT 60 — Indiana beat Kent State 71-60 (ESPN); Kent State lost by 11, well outside the +4.5 cushion, so the bet busts.
“I just feel like he a lock for it So I actually bet this one It one of the few ones I already bet that at minus one I just think he the best guy in this category of everything he overcome And they put on such an amazing performance I just love Brendan Fraser in this spot”
Brendan Fraser won Best Actor for The Whale at the 95th Academy Awards (Wikipedia 95th Academy Awards).
“uh you know i know that simon is already on anthony richardson i believe to go number one overall uh got that at a great number so i mean did you get that 100 to one was that where you bet it yeah i got a bunch of different numbers but like we always talk about the book's limit so the biggest bag down was 250 um at a book i can't name because we're not sponsored by him”
Carolina selected Bryce Young with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft; Anthony Richardson went No. 4 overall to Indianapolis (Wikipedia 2023 NFL draft results).
“But one thing I did, I gave it on the action app, was I bet Anthony Richards to be the first quarterback taken at 40 to 1.”
Bryce Young was the first quarterback taken in the 2023 NFL Draft, No. 1 overall to Carolina; Anthony Richardson went No. 4 overall to Indianapolis (Wikipedia 2023 NFL draft results).
“I got them 100-1 to win the Super Bowl”
SF 22, KC 25 (OT) — The Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LVIII, defeating the San Francisco 49ers 25-22 in overtime; the Chicago Bears did not reach or win the Super Bowl.
“The Broncos, I'm just going to grab now just because I think other pros are going to bet them. I just think the public might be off this one. The pros are going to like it. It's just a good team that now has a really good coach and they have an owner that wants to spend money. So these are all things I look at and shop around. Once again, I've seen a couple 45 to ones out there on Denver uh on certain books so it's FanDuel right now they're showing 35 to 1 I don't hate it I just think if you can find a 40 to 1 42 to 1 try to find that uh instead of taking 35 uh for the”
SF 22, KC 25 (OT) — The Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LVIII, defeating the San Francisco 49ers 25-22 in overtime; the Denver Broncos did not reach or win the Super Bowl.
“So I love D'Amico Ryan. I think he's a great coach. I'm excited for this Houston team. 300-1, Chad, longest shot bet of the offseason. We'll be talking about them a bunch coming up into this year. Just sitting here in February, I think you just take it. Just in case they do hit on the quarterback this will drop down to 200 Just in my opinion if they hit in the first round that how much a quarterback means in this league So I just going to take the value on Houston”
SF 22, KC 25 (OT) — The Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LVIII, defeating the San Francisco 49ers 25-22 in overtime; the Houston Texans did not reach or win the Super Bowl.
“But looking at this total, there's a bunch of reasons why I like the over. But the biggest one is I think there's going to be a lot of short fields because of turnovers. I think the Eagles, with that front line, they will be able to get to them. They will be able to turn over and vice versa. The Eagles, they're the kind of team that, yes, they've been smart with the ball. I think they're going to take more risk in this kind of match. We've seen teams in the Super Bowl, they take more risk, especially when you're playing against a guy like Mahomes. You can't really play it safe. So I just see a lot of short fields in this game, a lot of big plays with both sides of the ball where I know what people think. This Eagles defense is really good. So just looking at a couple of their big matchups, they played the Cowboys. Everyone remembers that Saturday game, Christmas Eve. Their defense gave up 40 points. They lost 40 to 34. You could say that was a fluke touchdown at the end. Remember that really crazy play. So you could take that away, but still over 30 points in an indoor game. The next time they played Green Bay, they won 40 to 33. So their defense gave up 33 points to Aaron Rodgers. You're just seeing a little bit of a trend here that when they play a good quarterback, Even week one. I mean, I remember Chad remembers that. Detroit indoors put up 35 points. I know that was a long time ago, but there's a thing where they're indoors. It's different than when they're outdoors at home. And that's when the Eagles defense has been so dominant. So this was an outdoor game. I honestly would have been all over that under. I think that would have been skewed towards both teams being towards the under. We already talked to Andrew Reid's history in the playoffs and the outdoor game. When his team was in it, he was 60% towards the under. But when he's indoors, it goes more towards the over, especially with Mahomes. So that my big thing here Chad is I just see both both offenses being very risky and taking big swings where he goes offense I do think they be smart They try to run the ball If Mahomes goes up at any point if he goes up seven or 14 points which historically in superbowls you see big swings like that teams go on little runs and other teams bounce back which that another prop we can talk about during the prop show um that's just something that happens in superbowl so i'm an under guy i mean we talk all the time i love taking under especially when the value is there i could easily flip if it hits 52 to the under but right now i got a mile of 51 and a half”
PHI 35, KC 38 — Kansas City beat Philadelphia 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII, a combined 73 points, well over the 51.5 total.
“Yes is over 10 to 1, so that there will be a safety in this game.”
No safety was scored in Super Bowl LVII (Chiefs 38, Eagles 35), so the 'Yes safety' prop lost.
“I love the sacks in this one, so I'm not even going to give it out. If you want to do any type of over on sacks for the Eagles, over two and a half or total in the game which I believe it up to five and a half I just felt safer doing 2 at minus 150”
The Eagles recorded 0 team sacks in Super Bowl LVII (Mahomes was not sacked), so Eagles Over 2.0 sacks lost.
“So, to me, that's really weird that they're making a plus 150. I think it's just based off the low turnover through the air that Mahomes had this past season and hurts. So to me, I think it's an overreaction to the regular season where just for this one game, I like that position of taking that over. So interceptions over one and a half.”
There were zero interceptions thrown in Super Bowl LVII (0 for each team), so Total Interceptions Over 1.5 lost.
“the over. I would say me and my group came in pretty heavy on the over side. We moved it maybe half a point. Another really sharp group came in even heavier on the over. I think they've moved it now full point, up to 50 and a half. So I took my position on that at 49 and a half. I was hoping, I told you, I was hoping it would drop even more. It just wasn't going to. So I took that position.”
38-35 — Chiefs beat Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII; combined 73 points clears the 49.5 total, so Over 49.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“So early, early, early thoughts right now is I've made a decent amount of bets on this Eagles team. I've taken them, like Chad said, dropped to one and a half. I've just been, even today, even though I've been boozing, I'm clear headed enough that I've been making the text and making the calls just to get a nice starter amount on this Eagles team because that's the position I want to be on right now.”
38-35 — Chiefs beat Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII; Eagles lost outright (margin -3), missing the -1.5 spread, so Eagles -1.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“So early bet me and Chad would have been all over since he and the under I still like the under Still would take a position but obviously we wish it was still at 47 That such a key number It at 46 and a half right now Not ideal. But this is one of those where we'll really have a pick for it on Thursday. Like right now, me and Chad, if you want to make a bet with us, we're betting the under. Like already on the under.”
23-20 — Chiefs beat Bengals 23-20 in the AFC Championship; combined 43 points stays under the 46.5 total, so Under 46.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“So to me, the books are clearly taking a stand here on the Eagles. Me and Chad are taking a stand as well. And we might have a ton of egg on our face come next Tuesday when we come back on the show. Just because we already talked about all these little trends point to backing blindly just backing the Giants here. It's a good spot to back the best team ATS wise this season. So the people that are believers in them, they will be heavily rewarded. Me and Chad, who are believers in fate and public perception, getting value on a home favorite. And, you know, we're looking at this Eagles team that they're not even the favorite right now in the NFC. The rookie quarterback, Brock Purdy, in the 49ers team is. So that lets you kind of know all you need to know about the market and what it thinks of this Eagles team. I just think we're getting a good undervalued team where if this number was 10, yes, That'd be impossible for me and Chad to get off of the Giants. And then all of a sudden the Giants get blown up by 20. We look like idiots. But at the 7 it just it feels like it a good number Like this number should be closer to 8 eight and a half It seven seven and a half which I do think it the slimmest amount of value I just think because people are that sharp like that how smart these betters are They're not going to let it get down below that seven or seven and a half. So yeah, me and Chad are waiting for the seven. But if it doesn't get there, I got no issue betting the seven and a half.”
PHI 38, NYG 7 — Eagles beat Giants 38-7, a 31-point margin that covers PHI -7.5 (ESPN box score).
“Love the Bills. Obviously, I mean, you always like getting the best in the numbers. So I wish it stayed at four and a half, four. That was just a really nice key number. But I already talked about it. If you haven't gotten it, I'm still making bets at five and a half just because I think it will eventually get to six. We'll see. I mean, it hasn't touched six in any book yet, but it's holding right now five and a half. So maybe that's a resistance line of as soon as they touch six, the pros, I guess, come in heavy on the other side. But to me, I would take this up to five and a half with this Bills team.”
BUF 10, CIN 27 — Bengals beat Bills 27-10, a 17-point Bills loss that misses BUF -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“and in seven seconds he got down the field and kicked a field goal so I just it's hard for me to tell people to take the money line but I just I have to take this eight and a half with this Jags team but I will tell you I don't think that's the best bet in the game the best bet in the game”
KC 27, JAX 20 — Chiefs beat Jaguars 27-20, a 7-point Jaguars loss that stays inside JAX +8.5 (ESPN box score).
“Obviously, I'm going to take the Jags' money line as well”
KC 27, JAX 20 — Chiefs beat Jaguars 27-20 outright, so the Jaguars moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I believe this is a good number. My biggest bet is going to still be the under. I would still grab it now before it goes down below 45. But if you already got the 46 and a half or 46, just wait.”
SF 19, DAL 12 — 49ers beat Cowboys 19-12, a combined 31 points, under 46.5 (ESPN box score).
“So at no point when me and Chad were taking this three and a half, am I going to be sweating this? Unless they're getting blown out, obviously, then we're dead. We're dead in the water with Dallas. But if say Dallas is down 10 heading into the fourth quarter, I'm honestly not that scared. me and Chad are a touchdown away from covering this three and a half.”
SF 19, DAL 12 — 49ers beat Cowboys 19-12, a 7-point Cowboys loss that misses DAL +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“We're getting the Eagles team rested. Everyone I thought was going to come running in on that Eagles number when I was at seven. And they didn't. We saw early money came in on the seven on the Giants. And it's still up to seven and a half, which is nice to know the pros are backing us with the Eagles. but honestly, I knew going in that I was going to take them. It's just a nice spot for an Eagles team at home, well-rested, in that atmosphere.”
PHI 38, NYG 7 — Eagles beat Giants 38-7, a 31-point margin that covers PHI -7 (ESPN box score).
“Simon Says, under 46.5.”
SF 19, DAL 12 — 49ers beat Cowboys 19-12, a combined 31 points, under 46.5 (ESPN box score).
“So if you're able to, yes, grab that 4.5 with us. I just cannot see us being moved off the position. I'm going to be on the bills this week.”
BUF 10, CIN 27 — Bengals beat Bills 27-10, a 17-point Bills loss that misses BUF -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“I not going to lie dude I just hit it again at 13 because I worried about going 13 and a half I was just like man this is a massive favorite Josh Allen his red zone turnovers this could be our Achilles heel here but I just kept thinking about this Bills team”
BUF 34, MIA 31 — Bills beat Dolphins 34-31, only a 3-point margin, short of BUF -13 (ESPN box score).
“You want to break down the Ravens game? Well, we kind of did. Yeah, that's fair. I would just say to everyone, like, I'm still in on it. I'm still in on the eight and a half, but we obviously need Huntley.”
CIN 24, BAL 17 — Bengals beat Ravens 24-17, a 7-point Ravens loss that stays inside BAL +8.5 (ESPN box score).
“I still love the Jags and bet it again at two and a half”
JAX 31, LAC 30 — Jaguars beat Chargers 31-30 outright, covering JAX +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“It feels easy when it's two and a half. So one of those, I bet early in the week at three, I've taken a little at two and a half, and now I've just been waiting,”
TB 14, DAL 31 — Cowboys beat Buccaneers 31-14, a 17-point Bucs loss that misses TB +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“The Giants and the Vikings and the Seahawks and the Niners. Yeah. Because everything in my body says bet the Niners at nine and a half. But there's something that is holding me back. You're a pro. Yeah. It's like it's the situation, the fact that it's going to be shitty weather. it's a rookie quarterback against a veteran quarterback even though it's first court first time in the playoffs for both the Seahawks are so undervalued the Seahawks the 49ers are so overvalued everything about this to me says I think I'm just going to stay away you can't it's the playoffs no that's fair I just think there's no I see no advantage either way yeah it's just tough where i do like i just gotta stay staunch in my belief that the league has figured out geno uh if you just look at his numbers towards the tail end of the season it was bad you look at the three quarterbacks he beat in this last half of the season it was john wilford baker mayfield and then whoever the backup was to arizona so the geno that's my biggest thing here where it's like if if he was playing really well coming into this it would be a no-brainer because it's literally like what chad's talking about which is giving a weird feeling of it's a divisional it's the third time they've seen each other they've already been swept which is like all the math backs out bank backing the team that just got swept now they play each other in the playoffs um but it's just that that geno factor where it's Like, Brock Purdy, I think he's going to get caught. Like, I mean, we haven't given our Super Bowl predictions here. But I do think he's eventually going to get caught. It's just – it's just – it's a lot to put on this kid's shoulders. I mean, in these games, I talked about it. If you go back and look, he's been not only flawless, he's just running a really smooth offense. Like, guys in his face, he always makes the right. read it's just been insane especially when i talked to like especially college pros who bet this kid and like because i know i honestly knew nothing really about him they they don't get it they're like dude if you watch him in college he had talent but this is like out of body experience right now for this kid so in this matchup where he has all the confidence in the world they're at home i'm gonna take it especially now it's under 10 i'm still gonna back it but um obviously like chad just said it's it's never a good feeling i know it's not just one or two pros it's a lot of pros that are backing the Seahawks in this spot. They like this position, but I still think this is the move here for me with the 49ers. So I'll be on 49ers first half. I'll be on 49ers first game, all game. It's just, it's just a spot I like to take them. Maybe next week I'll go against it,”
SF 41, SEA 23 — 49ers beat Seahawks 41-23, an 18-point margin that covers SF -9.5 (ESPN box score).
“i just take the vikings because i like them at home here”
MIN 24, NYG 31 — Giants beat Vikings 31-24 outright, so MIN -3 misses (ESPN box score).
“Simon says Jags plus one and a half.”
JAX 31, LAC 30 — Jaguars beat Chargers 31-30 outright, covering JAX +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“It's just a no-brainer to take the Bills here. hopefully you can grab a 10 I do think 10 is a key number”
BUF 34, MIA 31 — Bills beat Dolphins 34-31, a 3-point margin that misses BUF -10 (ESPN box score).
“Foxhole. We got the Ravens plus six and a half.”
CIN 24, BAL 17 — Bengals beat Ravens 24-17, a 7-point Ravens loss that misses BAL +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Me and Chad loaded up on the Broncos at three and a half. [10:48] That line is completely flipped. [10:50] I will take the Chargers at three.”
DEN 31, LAC 28 — Broncos beat Chargers 31-28; Los Angeles lost by exactly 3, pushing the +3 spread.
“I go with our team Tennessee Give me plus six”
JAX 20, TEN 16 — Jaguars beat Titans 20-16; Tennessee lost by only 4, covering the +6 spread.
“[10:39] This is exactly what me and Chad take the Titans and the Titans somehow pull up some miracle ups. [10:43] So I do think the Jaguars will win, but I think this comes down to a last second possession. [10:48] So six and a half, we'll take the number.”
JAX 20, TEN 16 — Jaguars beat Titans 20-16; Tennessee lost by only 4, covering the +6.5 spread.
“People are just going to bet this plus three because it's going to be this Colts team. I mean, who's going to be taking the minus three? It feels like the Bucs last week. So not going to make this my Simon says, but as we sit here right now, I've already bet the minus two and a half. I just can't help myself.”
HOU 32, IND 31 — Texans beat Colts 32-31 on the road; Indianapolis lost outright, missing the -2.5 spread.
“Browns visiting the Steelers. Cleveland plus two and a half. Yeah, exactly. Like me and Chad don't have a choice. We have to take Cleveland.”
PIT 28, CLE 14 — Steelers beat Browns 28-14; Cleveland lost by 14, missing the +2.5 spread.
“I will be all over that Giants money line playing spoiler in this game. I love it.”
PHI 22, NYG 16 — Eagles beat Giants 22-16; New York lost outright, busting the moneyline.
“So I'll hear what the boys are saying, Chad, but I already bet it. [44:01] I'm in on Detroit. [44:02] As soon as they hit 4.5, I bet it.”
GB 16, DET 20 — Lions beat Packers 20-16 outright, covering the +4.5 spread.
“Are they four and a half better? Then Houston, a team that's had their numbers over these last couple years, even when Houston was terrible. No. So, yeah. Give me Houston, Chad.”
JAX 31, HOU 3 — Jaguars beat Texans 31-3; Houston lost by 28, well short of the +4.5 they needed.
“Simon says Vikings plus three and a half.”
GB 41, MIN 17 — Packers beat Vikings 41-17; Minnesota lost by 24, missing the +3.5 they needed.
“Give me Jets minus two, whatever it is.”
SEA 23, NYJ 6 — Seahawks beat Jets 23-6; New York lost by 17, missing the -2 they were laying.
“Early in the week, we talked about Miami at plus three if it got there. any strong feelings on that game that line is currently at plus three oh chad we don't have a choice another game we don have a choice we bet teddy teddy covers as a dog we just bet him we take the plus three”
NE 23, MIA 21 — Patriots beat Dolphins 23-21; Miami lost by only 2, covering the +3 spread.
“We like the Texans plus four.”
JAX 31, HOU 3 — Jaguars beat Texans 31-3; Houston lost by 28, well short of the +4 they needed.
“Jets, two and a half point favorites on the road at Seattle. Got to take the Jets.”
SEA 23, NYJ 6 — Seahawks beat Jets 23-6; New York lost by 17, missing the -2.5 they were laying.
“Simon says was Eagles plus five and a half.”
DAL 40, PHI 34 — Cowboys beat Eagles 40-34; Philadelphia lost by 6, failing to cover +5.5 (ESPN).
“more human. Let's talk about the Colts for two seconds. It's my executive decision. When we talked about it earlier in the week, you were like, if you're not going to make it your exact decision, then it's going to be my Simon Says. I love the Colts at four. it doesn't matter to me who's playing quarterback yeah obviously my biggest issue is the fact that he hasn't been with the first team like that like brock purdy that was a big deal this kid had first team not first team but second team reps all summer because he had garoppolo holding out and then in as soon as trey lance went down he was back in the training camp back practicing with the team again brock purdy nick foals had the opposite of that they literally shunned him they They had him not in the facility all the offseason. Then when they did bring him back, like, yeah, we'll put you on their practice squad and do whatever with you, make our third stringer. What the hell was that kid's name, Sam Ellinger? Ellinger? Ellinger, yeah. He's behind him. They had him behind him. The disrespect. So I love Nick. I know exactly what I'm getting from Nick. He is the ultimate gamer. This is the kind of guy you want to have in this game. So, yes, I will be taking the five. Guys, I will not be shocked if we get a total egg laid by Nick Foles here”
LAC 20, IND 3 — Chargers beat Colts 20-3 on Monday Night Football; Indianapolis lost by 17, failing to cover +5 (ESPN).
“do you want to talk about the Washington game yeah because to me that might feel like a big balls that is the big ball better the week kicking myself I didn't make that our Simon Says or Foxville because seven and a half, it felt like that was going to disappear. And it did. I mean, it was a second. Yeah, you could maybe find it, but I could just see this number going to six and a half. And that's exactly what it should be in this matchup where, yes, the 49ers are the cream of the crop. They're one of the better teams in football. But Washington's also a playoff team. And we've seen them kind of rally in these games where them losing by eight points, whatever that was against the Giants. That's like a blowout for Washington. them. They just this whole year, they've just been in these really close games. And we've seen his whole career Shanahan at home is a big favorite struggles like for some reason that when he struggles And it always kind of been that way so not surprising that this is going to be a pros versus joes i mean the public is going to be all over the 49ers this is one of the most teased teams this week it's one of the most money line bet teams this week shock to no one i love this game as an upset just a total out of nowhere everyone's off washington after a bad prime time game people are all in on the 49ers they are I mean, they probably are now the most bad team over the Eagles. Peak Niners. Yeah, just because Hurts got hurt, I feel like people are going to come in now on the Niners because that gives them a little bit more confidence, which is fair to me. Like, if Hurts is out for five weeks, he doesn't play until the first time he's in the playoffs. That's a huge deal. So it makes sense for all the love of the 49ers, but this is the exact time this team has a letdown game. So I wish we had the 7.5, would take it down to 6.5. So I feel like you can grab the seven right now. That's perfect for the big balls bet of the week. Pros, Joe, as you said, it's 65% of the bets on the Niners, 73% of the money on the Commanders. Right. I think you made a really good point. Kyle Shanahan, as a big favorite at home, is almost an auto fade. And I don't have the exact ATS record in front of me. It doesn't matter. I can say blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. I believe Chase Young's coming back too this week. This is a coach who when his teams have big leads, we've seen it, and are big favorites, his decision making tends to get a little more conservative. Brilliant offensively, everyone knows I'm like a Kyle Shanahan stan, right? I love the guy. I think he's brilliant. But this is an Achilles heel for him, these spots. Also, it's a low total. And I think when you have low totals at 38, 38 and a half, and you have a relatively high side, in this case a touchdown or more, the books are basically telegraphing take the underdog because they're expecting the big money on the favorite. So – and that's the big bets on the favorite. And that's what we're seeing here. Big balls, bet of the week. Washington Commanders plus seven.”
SF 37, WSH 20 — 49ers beat Commanders 37-20; Washington lost by 17, failing to cover +7 (ESPN).
“Give me the Panthers plus two and a half.”
CAR 37, DET 23 — Panthers beat Lions 37-23; Carolina won by 14, covering +2.5 (ESPN).
“Moneyline, round robin. Patriots, Panthers, Commanders, Eagles, Packers.”
Moneyline round robin: Patriots ML lost (Bengals won 22-18), Panthers ML won (beat Lions 37-23), Commanders ML lost (49ers won 37-20), Eagles ML lost (Cowboys won 40-34), Packers ML won (beat Dolphins 26-20) — 2 of 5 legs won (ESPN).
“Patriots plus three and a half. We're going to the foxhole.”
CIN 22, NE 18 — Bengals beat Patriots 22-18; New England lost by 4, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN).
“Right now, our foxhole is Pats plus three and a half. Our Simon Says is Eagles plus five and a half. I did not see any sixes available.”
DAL 40, PHI 34 — Cowboys beat Eagles 40-34; Philadelphia lost by 6, failing to cover +5.5 (ESPN).
“but their team that gets caught in these big spreads and that's what the books keep doing they keep hanging big numbers the public are happy to do it they're happy to bet them they're happy to throw them in teasers and we keep getting free points here chad so this number should probably be seven and a half i mean like you just said fan duel it's eight and a half shop around it's nine and a half so hopefully it grows nine and a half everywhere and maybe even 10 that'd be amazing because we didn't even talk about it. This is going to be a freezing game. They're calling for minus 11-degree weather. Josh Allen, he's incredible. We just saw the Bills give up 200 yards to Miami on the ground. That's what the Bears want to do. They want to run the ball. We saw them run last week all over the Eagles, and it's the same thing with this matchup. A lot of things just point to this Bears game Does it feel a little too easy a little bit Chad I not going to lie to you We had two weeks now where you know Denver the week before was the biggest bet team as a big dog That covered Last week the Bears were the most bet team against the Eagles. That covered. So the pros, they've been over, we've been all over these big spreads at home. Can't avoid it. It's just such a big number. I just can't not take this number.”
BUF 35, CHI 13 — Bills beat Bears 35-13; Chicago lost by 22, failing to cover +9.5 (ESPN).
“dying to get to commanders plus seven against the niners is not one of them really you don't like that i like the commanders in the game yeah it's the right side like you're like the niners are so overinflated right now when he's a big favorite chanahan you always fade him yeah this is the move i'm with the commanders i think everyone just has a little bit of a bad taste in their mouth of them even i bet you the luck rink is will come out this will be one of the bigger ones the corner has been very lucky oh my god it's gotta be yeah so seven and a half like i'll be on the commanders maybe i'll be able to talk and talk chatting to be one of our five but there's just a lot of dogs i like this week so i get if it's not one of our five but seven and a half that's hard to pass on”
SF 37, WSH 20 — 49ers beat Commanders 37-20; Washington lost by 17, failing to cover +7.5 (ESPN).
“All right. Let's get back to the show. Raiders, Steelers. Steelers, three-point favorites, getting the money too, by the way. That's me. I'm on it. It's one of these games I bet early in the week when it was opened at one. It opened at one. So you bet it at one. It went to two bet it two and a half bet it Nah I just waiting The public will come in on the Raiders and hopefully they get me back down at two and a half”
PIT 13, LV 10 — Steelers beat Raiders 13-10; Pittsburgh won by 3, covering -1 (ESPN).
“The Bears do not have, the Bears are playing a JV defense right now. yeah they're awful but it's the game changer of fields and i'm not gonna lie to you when i saw that he had illness and wasn't practicing this week not ideal we got a guy who's a vegan who's got apparently some type of flu or maybe it's a stomach bug i don't know what he's sick with but he's sick he's missed i think two practices now not ideal especially the fact that i've already bet this damn game i bet the nine and a half bet the nine um because i did think this was going to go down to eight eight and a half for the next couple days but you just touched on it”
PHI 25, CHI 20 — Eagles beat Bears 25-20; Chicago lost by 5, covering +9.5 (ESPN).
“But I do love it. I feel like we're getting such good value here on Jacksonville. But I get where they're coming from. Oh, it's going to be one of the five, brother. Oh. Here the thing Oh God It the value If this game was three we wouldn be having this conversation But how is it four and a half Look the Cowboys have injuries on their offensive line”
JAX 40, DAL 34 — Jaguars beat Cowboys 40-34 in OT; Jacksonville won outright, easily covering +4.5 (ESPN).
“Bears plus nine is Foxhole. Simon says Jags plus four and a half. Exec decision, Colts plus four. Big balls, Washington minus four and a half. Scooch roulette, Simon, Washington minus four and a half.”
NYG 20, WSH 12 — Giants beat Commanders 20-12; Washington lost outright, failing to cover -4.5 (ESPN).
“we have Jacksonville plus 750 to win the AFC South and we love it Even better I got like 13 14 to 1 We taking it in May and June I all in on it”
The Jaguars won the AFC South (9-8), clinching the division title over the Titans (7-10) at season's end (ESPN standings).
“simon says um because it was going to be my exact decision but you pulled it first so i'm doing jags plus four and a half our money line round robin i would do jags this has been anyone listening i've i've way lowered my bets every week we've just been not us particularly but just football in general the dogs have not been winning outright they've been covering but our win weight went right went way down uh for out for underdogs outright so just don be don be going as crazy as we were earlier in the year on these Moneyline Round Robins Jags Colts Colts Raiders Yeah, okay, that's fair. I mean, what are you going to do? You're not going to put the Bears in there. No. Let's go with Tennessee. And we got to go ballsy on this last one, this big one. Got to go with Miami. Interesting. Got to get weird with it.”
Moneyline round robin: Jaguars ML won (beat Cowboys 40-34 OT), Colts ML lost (Vikings won 39-36 OT), Raiders ML won (beat Patriots 30-24), Titans ML lost (Chargers won 17-14), Dolphins ML lost (Bills won 32-29) — 2 of 5 legs won (ESPN).
“But the biggest one is I make this line two. It's three and a half just because of what we just talked about. the Seahawks, they laid in a complete egg while the 49ers completely blew out a team. You're getting free points here. It's another week of you just have to kind of take these free points. The fact that's an island game, we know the public is going to be pounding the 49ers. I'm grabbing a three and a half now just in case it does drop and the pros take it, but you should be able to get value. I just see the public coming in so heavy on the 49ers here that if everyone's fully healthy, if it's just Debo that's out, this number should be closed at three and a half so i'd grab it now just to be safe because it does drop to three but i do feel like i'll close at three and a half well i'm glad you put a number on it as in it should be rated a two it's a buy low sell buy low sell high right like brock purdy was nearly perfect”
SF 21, SEA 13 — 49ers beat Seahawks 21-13 on Thursday Night Football; Seattle lost outright, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN).
“I understand where they're coming from, that they want to back the team that wins close games, but that's kind of why I want to take the Colts. Like even if the Vikings win, which we got no issue with it, we're getting four points. That's a big deal in these kind of matchups. So don't know if it'll be one of my best five, but I do like the value right now sitting there on the Colts. Also by the way this is a top three luck rankings matchup in favor of the Colts And the luck rankings this year, we've talked about on the show constantly. If you are getting a luck ranking differential of about, let me look it up exactly here. Hold on. I apologize. If you get a luck ranking differential of 10 plus points, the ROI on that, they're covering at a 57% clip, 16 plus points, 59% clip. The luck ranking differential in this game, which essentially is saying how can you quantify regression? The luck ranking differential in this game is 26. So just bet the Colts. All right? Just do it. Lock it in.”
MIN 39, IND 36 — Vikings beat Colts 39-36 in OT; Indianapolis lost by 3, covering +4 (ESPN).
“Are we hopping on in the foxhole? Well, listen, you only love the Eagles, and you can't see straight unless – so I'm happy to jump in the foxhole. I was going to make this an ED, but do you want to get in the foxhole? Let's get in the fucking foxhole. Let's put the Bears at plus nine in the goddamn foxhole.”
PHI 25, CHI 20 — Eagles beat Bears 25-20; Chicago lost by 5, covering +9 (ESPN).
“And the Cowboys have a lot of injuries in the back end of their defensive secondary. Give me this game at home. I like the matchup. I just do. I really, really do. I'm going to have to make the Simon Says because I'm looking at a four and a half right now. I could see a drop in a four over the next day or two. So I'm making Simon Says. Simon Says. When Simon Says do it we do what Simon Says Simon Says Jags four and a half Wow That came out of nowhere Well I was just thinking now and I was like”
JAX 40, DAL 34 — Jaguars beat Cowboys 40-34 in OT; Jacksonville won outright, easily covering +4.5 (ESPN).
“So got to hold your nose and take the Titans here at plus three.”
LAC 17, TEN 14 — Chargers beat Titans 17-14; Tennessee lost by exactly 3, pushing on +3 (ESPN).
“that game when we started talking about it on tuesday was at nine and a half before i was done talking about it, it was at nine. Now, it's been back up to nine Of course I got That could be part of the sudden injury right I think Sutton got put out So yeah that could be part of it Could be. But, of course, I got nervous on Tuesday. As soon as I saw it going on, I hit it at 9. Now it's a 9-1, which sucks. I think the same is true of the Giants and the Broncos. They're playing teams that have been so dominant this year that you get to the end of the year and the flaws are pasted over a little bit. And so you know the inflation is going to be so high from the books that you almost automatically have to bet the other side because the books are expecting the public to come in. And I think with the Broncos specifically, we talked about this, Patrick Mahomes is so dominant at the end of the year, the numbers get so big they become impossible to cover and that's what's happened to him like he's under 500 against the spread um you know so in this spot and so um still love the broncos yeah this is a game sadly i've been losing sleep over it i just like i woke up and i swept the other night about it um i almost had a really weird intention but i literally woke up and just just like why am i betting the broncos and it's the same thing i had last week but it's it's the right spot to take it so the the game doesn't really scare me as much as that the fear is going to be will the broncos be able to move the ball and i believe they will i think the chiefs they could still be run on and that's what the broncos be able to do yeah am i worried that sudden's out that's kind of a big deal but at the same time he hasn't really done that much this year how much worse can they get right so to me jerry judy he's been the weapon so So I felt confidence that the fact that the pros were on it, I knew they'd be on it, though. It's a divisional home dog, bigger than a seven. Yeah, I'm with you, Chad. They're not as bad as they've looked. But Russell Wilson actually might be. He really might be this bad. So this is one of these bets where I'm kind of betting mainly on the defense and trusting this offense will be able to start moving the ball against the Chiefs defense. It's just young. They just have young pieces in the secondary. We've seen teams want to run the ball on them of late. So one of those games where if Russ had just shown me anything last couple of weeks, this would be one of my bigger bets, but it won't be just because of that. So for this week, if me and Chad play five, this would be one of the five. No doubt No brainer Automatically locked in kind of game just because I have to play this spot every time and have to take this number every time”
KC 34-28 DEN — Chiefs beat Broncos 34-28; Denver +9.5 covers on a 6-point loss (ESPN box score).
“bet. So we did the Broncos. We're going to do it again this week. The Giants, I still think you made the best point on Tuesday. Jalen Hurts just isn't the same quarterback on the road. And then, you know, talking about Action Network Pod and Stucky and Raybon, Stucky had a really good point this morning. Since 2020, the Eagles on the road are the worst team in the NFL against the spread. And that's when Jalen Hurts became a starter late in the year. So this is a team, you look back at their schedule, their only good win on the road is against the Lions in week one. Barely beat the Colts Cowboys Cooper Rush Carson Wentz led Washington They beat the Texans but they beat them by double digits but it was a late double digit sort of front door cover yeah they didn cover it was it for that right the Texans covered that's right that's right so um just not a very good team on the road yeah and that was honestly the part of it another part of it was just the fact that we talked about that's lines inflated because they just beat the crap out of Tennessee like four and a half five just made sense for this divisional matchup yes the eagles are superior team but in divisional games like this especially in december teams really just know exactly exactly what each other want to do and that's going to be this that's going to be what the giants are going to be so well preparing for this game it's like they've played against this scheme now with sirianni for two years now or three years so they are i guess two years but they just know exactly what the scheme is going to do so looking at the game i love it at seven the six and a half does definitely give you pause because that's moving to another key number. I'd still take it. But you have sevens out there. So just make sure you grab that.”
PHI 48-22 NYG — Eagles beat Giants 48-22; New York +7 lost outright and against the spread (ESPN box score).
“I had that same feeling here with the Chargers. I just have no doubt the Chargers were able to move the ball against Miami defense. And for the offensive side, yes, I know the Chargers have struggled against the run, but I can see them being able to get pressure against two in this game. And you factor in Waddle might miss this game as well as their Armstead at the tackle position. Two major injuries. Those are two Pro Bowl players for this Miami team. Two guys that are the reason they have the record they do now. So, man, if both those guys are out, this would be a Noah Branger play. But already love it. If you're getting the three and a half, you just have to grab it. It's a big home dog. Numbers should be closer to two or one. It's just going to be inflated just because the Chargers have disappointed people so much this year. People expect Tua and Miami to bounce back. this kind of feels like not for their season but it does i think it's for the charger season the charges know they can't drop this game i believe they're 500 right now they need this game to stay in that wild card contention so both teams equally as desperate give me the bigger dog at three and a half uh reminder for people just because i love using it i'm in a legal state i went into the action network app i picked the chargers plus three and a half quick slipped it directly to FanDuel, opened up a bet slip for me. I put my bet in, I tapped, done. It took me 15 seconds.”
LAC 23-17 MIA — Chargers beat Dolphins 23-17, covering as +3.5 underdogs (ESPN box score).
“i went into the action network app i picked the chargers plus three and a half quick slipped it”
LAC 23-17 MIA — Chargers beat Dolphins 23-17, covering as +3.5 underdogs (ESPN box score).
“I know the Browns are the right play here. This is a great number in a divisional game. They are not that much worse than this Cincinnati team is. This line's inflated just because Cincinnati right now is a darling NFL. I mean, Joe Burrow, he's what, top three now in MVP votes? He's just – the hype is hitting that point. So, just looking at this matchup, it's like, yeah, you have to take the Browns. But my issue is Watson. I just – I do not know what I get from him. He sure as hell is not getting two defensive touchdowns and a kick return this week against Cincinnati's defense. I mean, they're good. So, yeah, don't really know what to do with it, Chad. but I already bet the six. I'm going to have to bet the six and a half now that's hit six and a half, but it's hard to convince myself to put this as one over five,”
CIN 23-10 CLE — Bengals beat Browns 23-10; Cleveland +6 lost outright and against the spread (ESPN box score).
“the second game back are visiting the Cincinnati Bengals. You know how I feel about the Bengals. Three weeks in a row on the Bengals, on the bangles, on the bangles, made a my exact decision last week. I just think Joe Burrow is so special, really manages the game. And I don't mean that in a pejorative way. He just understands the flow and the rhythm and is unafraid in the moments where you cannot show fear. What's interesting about this game, 85% of the bets are on the bangles at minus six. The money is relatively split. So what that's telling me is that wise guys are coming in on the Browns at plus six. And I kind of buy it. I don't bet the Browns here. People are going to notice a theme. Me and Chad, we had a couple of favorites we loved last week. This week is just I love a lot of dogs. And this is one of them. People remember one of my bigger bets. I think it might have been a Simon Says play. Was that Browns at home on Halloween against the Bengals? I think it was three and a half. Same exact scenario. The Browns team looked awful the week before. the Bengals are getting all the hype in the world, right? They just had a big win. It's another game of, I'm not backing Watson. This is more of a back of their defense for some reason matches up really well against what Joe Burrow and this offense wants to do And in Joe career I have to look but I think he is 0 straight up Never beaten the Browns. Right. I think that is right, though. I think he's never beaten the Browns in his early career. He might have missed a game because of that ACL tear, but in the games he's played, he's just struggled against this defense for some reason. The way they scheme it with their cornerbacks and their safeties. and Miles Garrett always plays well against the Cincinnati front line. It is a really bizarre matchup in that sense. But just off not going off any of that, this number should be four. Like this number is ballooned up on what we just talked about. Joe, Joe is, he's going to be that guy this week talked about MVP. Like I'm not sure what his odds were at the start of the week and now what they are. But you have a game like that, what he had against the Chiefs, which was not perfect, but close to it. Like anytime they needed a third down, a big play, Joe kept doing it. And like Chad's talking about, he's been doing it for weeks now. They're on a really hot run, 10 and one, their last 11, eight CS. It's incredible what this team has done, but this number is inflated. And it's, it's inflated in the number in a divisional game. I always back the dog in those sides. So I wanted to be on the bangles. I was hoping the value would come down because Watson was back. And I was like, maybe this will open at three and a half. I could grab that. It didn't. It opened up at like six, six and a half. Staying at six, maybe it's going to drop a little bit, but I grab that six now just to be safe.”
CIN 23-10 CLE — Bengals beat Browns 23-10; Cleveland +6 lost outright and against the spread (ESPN box score).
“This one I know we're going to talk about. Eagles on the road, seven-point favorites against the New York football Giants. do you want to say it once again simon says the giants time i knew it you know you and i didn't discuss it but that's why i said do you want to say it because i had a feeling we were going giants plus seven and it's the same reason we took the giants last week i just feel like the”
PHI 48-22 NYG — Eagles beat Giants 48-22; New York +7 lost outright and against the spread (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, of course I'm on. This is one of these games I bet early. Bet the Lions in the open as a dog. It flipped right away. I think Sunday night to them being favorites. It's a classic game of public perception versus professional bettors, how they view certain teams and certain lines. But if this hits three, three and a half for the Vikings, the value is going to flip. And that's the toughest part about doing this, where it's like, I want to take the Lions two and a half. I'd still take them like Chad's doing right now. I think that's a good number.”
DET 34-23 MIN — Lions beat Vikings 34-23, covering as -2.5 favorites (ESPN box score).
“I'm with Chad in the sense that this is an inflated line. We're getting two points of value just because everyone hates betting Denver. No one bet them last week. Me and Chad are the few people that actually won money on them last week, you got to roll it over. I did a divisional game, a home dog with a good defense. We have to do it. It's another case of you have to just hold your nose and bet this. Don't even watch it. Cause I had to turn it off. Cause it was so damn painful to watch that offense. Just trust the defense, trust the number. This is a smart play to back down over here. But do you wait until it gets 10 or do you play it at nine and a half? Um, you can like, I already took the nine and a half, But like with most of my bets, I'm like you, I'm waiting for that number. So yeah, if the 10 pops, that's when I'll kind of unload on it. But I'd play the nine and a half small just in case it does drop to eight and a half. Because you're getting a fair number here at nine and a half. You are getting a fair number.”
KC 34-28 DEN — Chiefs beat Broncos 34-28; Denver +9.5 covers on a 6-point loss (ESPN box score).
“No, I bet I'm on Jets now. [41:45] You would go all in on the Jets in the contest. [41:47] Okay. [41:47] Yeah, like I'm on the three now.”
MIN 27-22 NYJ — Vikings beat Jets 27-22; New York +3 lost outright and against the spread (ESPN box score).
“Titans plus five and a half. Visiting the Eagles. I love the Titans here. Mistake. Yeah. All right. Genius. Tell me. Tell me. It stinks. This line stinks. This stinks. This stinks. Why is this not three? Why is this not three and a half? The Titans want to run the ball. The Eagles cannot stop the run. Bizarro world line. So walk right into the fucking trap, Chad, with the rest of the public. Take the Titans. Everyone's going to. I wanted to. I immediately was like, yeah, give me six. Thank you. And we've seen a drop, which makes you feel great, right? If you get to six, now it's five and a half. But this line stinks to holy hell. I don't know why this isn't closer to three, three and a half. That makes more sense. maybe the book is overvaluing the Eagles still, but I don't see that. This Titans team has been winning people money. That was their first non-cover last week in seven straight weeks. So the public is on the Titans. The public does not trust the Eagles. The Eagles, I agree with people saying they got lucky last week. It felt like they did. If Rodgers didn't go out, they probably weren't going to cover that game. So me, I'm with Chad right away. I wanted to take the Titans. They're just, Brayville is a dog. I blindly take the number and I take the money line This week I will take the Eagles in a matchup that I think their defense is going to get it right against a team that is just simply take away the run What the hell is Tannehill going to do? We've seen it time and time again. This guy cannot make the plays you need him to make. So I'll back my Eagles here as an under six-point favorite.”
PHI 35-10 TEN — Eagles beat Titans 35-10, covering as -5.5 favorites (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Giants, plus two and a half. Hopefully you can get the plus three if you can find it,”
WSH 20-20 NYG (OT) — Commanders and Giants tied 20-20 in overtime; Giants +2.5 covers on a push margin (ESPN box score).
“I'll take the seven and a half. Hopefully it gets back to eight. That'd be a good number. The Andrews got it at eight. Grab the eight then. because it's just professionals are going to take this number in the sense that you have a divisional home dog that as bad as they have looked, this Rams team, it's still McVay that can scheme up a way to run the ball against a really bad stop in the run defense in the Seahawks. So this big of a number, this is in the middle of the season, the Seahawks, like they're on a roll for a while there. You've kind of seen them come back down to earth these last couple of weeks. We got obviously caught with it last week. Same thing this week. I think this line's too, too high for a Seahawks team. The fact that the public is going to be all over this, right? They're going to be teasing this number, everything. So we're in every Joe Publix Moneyline Parlay, taking the Seahawks here. I'll gladly take the value on the eight with this Rams team.”
SEA 27-23 LAR — Seahawks beat Rams 27-23; Rams +8 covers on a 4-point loss (ESPN box score).
“Our favorite team to fade on the road as a favorite, the Los Angeles Chargers, are on the road as a favorite against the Las Vegas Raiders. The number right now is one and a half. The Raiders are one and a half point underdogs. The Chargers nearly gave it away against the Cardinals pulled one out and the Raiders did exactly the opposite beating up on the Seahawks in the overtime with Josh Jacobs gaining 800 yards in the game It's a pro-Joe game. Tickets on the Chargers. Not your exact decision? No. Oh, fuck. Love Vegas here. Yeah, I love it. I love Vegas here.”
LV 27-20 LAC — Raiders beat Chargers 27-20 outright; Las Vegas +1.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“all their wins are really close. They've had a couple of times. A couple of big blowouts, but if you go through it, like I'm looking at right now, most of their wins are by three, especially when they play against teams that can put up points. They just stay in these games because their defense really can't get stopped. So, yeah, with Chad, I'm going to back it here. I'll be all over Cincy with them. Hopefully we can get to the three, but at two and a half, I still think we're getting a good key number with the Cincy team.”
CIN 27-24 KC — Bengals beat Chiefs 27-24; Cincinnati +2.5 covers on a 3-point win (ESPN box score).
“no bye weeks bills lions uh the bills are on the road they are nine and a half point favorites I think you like the Bills in this game. And to me, I love the Lions. I bet road favorites on Thanksgiving. That's just what I do. Evan Amos is going to put out the trend. I believe it's 19-5 ATS since 2003 or 2004. Just road favorites, Thanksgiving, they pay out. Every year I do the same thing. I mean, people are going to catch on if you listen to this podcast every year. I bet the road favorites and I fade the Cowboys. It's been very profitable. The Cowboys just lay eggs on Thanksgiving. I believe they're 1-10 in their last 11, ATS. Just a lot of trends I like to ride. Going with the Bills here.”
BUF 28, DET 25 — Bills beat Lions 28-25; Bills margin +3 vs the -9.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“Patriots at the Vikings. This one's interesting. It's bouncing around plus three, plus two and a half, plus three, plus two and a half. Money on the Patriots. Tickets on the Vikings. Sharp call of the week. This is one of the really smart group reached out to a couple different people telling them they're going to be on this one on Sunday. Grab the three while you can. There's still threes out there. So again, they've moved the number at a couple of books, but you can still find a three out there if you shop around. So I'd grab that now. It's just going to be a professional play. Like again, as soon as I saw this number, I liked it. Hearing a smart groups on it gave me more confidence. I kind of talked about chat earlier. It's a classic defensive line versus offensive line mismatch, which we saw last week with this Vikings team, there's just too many injuries. Again, Kirk, that game wasn't even on him last week. He had no time. Guys were just in his lap that entire game. I expect the exact same thing here, this New England team that I know people sleep on them. They have one of the better defenses in football, and they have the third highest graded D-line in football right now, in my opinion. So I'm looking at a team here that, you know, they played bad. Like, do you think Belichick's going to let them get off that they won by a punt return last week? No, he's going to treat that as if it's a loss. He's going to be on their ass on a short week. I would love to take the Vikings in a bounce back spot. They just don't have an offensive line. Kirk's going to have no time. Cook's going to have no holes to run through. Hate that matchup. Flip it to the other side. What did we just see? We saw Dallas is running all over this Vikings team. What does New England want to do? They want to run the ball with their two-headed monster, and that's how they're going to do in this game. So no brainer, grab the plus three. Hope that can convince Chad to take this one.”
MIN 33, NE 26 — Vikings beat Patriots 33-26; Patriots margin -7 vs the +3 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“Finally, the Ravens visiting the Jaguars. I know you love this game. Jags are four-point dogs at home. 93% of the early money on the Baltimore Ravens. Simon Says. Oh, boy. Oh, boy. When Simon Says do it, we do what Simon Says. People. Oh my goodness. But we have to do it. This is an inflated line. The public, they have too much faith in this Ravens team that just has not been showing us that they deserve this much faith. Right. They've struggled these last couple of weeks ever since their number one receiver went down. We've seen their issues with Mark Andrews. Right. He's just not looked right. He's been banged up these last couple of weeks. I just like the Jaguars. I feel like they're a team that's getting right coming out of a bye week. This is a great spot for, you know, Doug. hit a whole week with him. I mean, again, who knows what they worked on, but he had an interview I saw two days ago where he talked about him and Lawrence got together. They worked on a lot of stuff. They talked about a bunch of stuff about what was good from the beginning of the year and what they can work on and what they can improve on. So again, to me, it feels like we're buying low on a Jaguars team that no, like you just said, the numbers, no one's gonna be betting them, right? This is your classic pros versus Joes. Just like last week, again, that Colts number made no sense to the public. They didn't get what was happening, why they were getting such a good deal and taking this Eagles team. It does the same thing here with this Ravens team. 7-3, they've earned it. The three losses they've had this year, they were self-inflicted. They had the Bills. They gave that game away at the end there. They had Miami. They gave that game away. They had a lot of self-inflicted games. This just feels like a bad spot for this Ravens team. They're just going up against a team that matches up very well for them on defense. They want to take away their run. That's where the Jaguars excel at. Now you're forcing the Ravens to pass. And we've seen how the Ravens just, the passing game just isn't there right now. So a big number at four, making it my Simon Says guy, I think this will go to three and a half, three by Sunday kickoff. Again, this is just going to be a professional game. They'll take this number every time. So if you can still grab the four now, at FanDuel, I'll grab it before it moves.”
JAX 28, BAL 27 — Jaguars beat Ravens 28-27 outright, covering +4 (ESPN box score).
“I immediately regretted spending any time on this game, working the numbers, trying to figure this game out. It was truly pointless where it's like, I don't know what I'm getting from either quarterback. I know exactly what I'm getting from both defenses. Chad just nailed it. I'll just take the under and pass on this game. I want to take Carolina because who the hell is Denver to be catching points right now? They got nothing working. Just an absolute train wreck of a season. It's a real shame Chad didn't listen to his co-host all summer talking about how bad Russell Wilson is. Did I ever imagine to be this bad? No. This is crazy. It is crazy how bad he is. The whole situation is so crazy. I just can't believe they gave him that contract. Just feels so terrible for Denver fans. So, yeah, would love to take Panthers here. Maybe I will if it's Sam Darnold at quarterback, but baker mayfield can't do it can't do it so i'll just take the under so um we have a stat evan abrams put it out i believe our crack research lead the total in this game is 35 wow i think it's one of the lowest totals in the past 20 years i'd still play that i'd still play the under yeah i mean the lowest total in college football was um i think it was the same thing it”
CAR 23, DEN 10 — Panthers beat Broncos 23-10, combined 33 points, under 35 covers (ESPN box score).
“their three and a half point underdogs at seattle no brainer take seattle here every time raiders”
LV 40, SEA 34 — Raiders beat Seahawks 40-34 in OT; Seahawks margin -6 vs the -3.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“But as long as it's not a Thursday night, Monday night or Sunday night game, I'm going to back Andy Dalton. And I like him in this spot. I would say, should we be thinking about this for Foxhole instead of Texans? There you go. foxhole we're in the fox let's climb down into the foxhole i would much much much would rather appreciate that much more all right so let's do that let's do saints plus nine and a half for the foxhole because if you look at the like one of these”
SF 13, NO 0 — 49ers beat Saints 13-0; Saints margin -13 vs the +9.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“Give me Dallas minus one and a half. [38:11] I'm all in on this week.”
DAL 40, MIN 3 — Cowboys beat Vikings 40-3, covering -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“If I can get a three in the contest I take that with the Saints team at home [17:35] in a matchup against a Rams team that just has major issues across the board.”
NO 27, LAR 20 — Saints beat Rams 27-20, covering -3 (ESPN box score).
“so we're going with cincy minus three and a half yeah i'm going against our boy chris Raybon oh yeah we're going against Raybon we're we're saying let's confirm we both I don want to be overly enthusiastic and convince you here I just I told you the pros are on Pittsburgh this week like I had a couple of calls and I said to them what we saying right now It like all right keep betting it Let me get three and a half. It's three and a half at FanDuel. I got to be a man of my word, Chad. I'm with you on it. We're doing it.”
CIN 37, PIT 30 — Bengals beat Steelers 37-30, covering -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Love the over, though. [29:29] If that's true and there's not going to be snow and not going to be crazy shit happening during the game, [29:33] take that value and take the over. [29:35] I already grabbed it at 41.5, 41. [29:38] It's up to 42.5 in a bunch of books. [29:40] Key number, I'd still grab it there.”
BUF 31, CLE 23 — Bills beat Browns 31-23, combined 54 points, over 42.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I'll take Tennessee here at three, three and a half. Don't know if we'll make it to our contest, but I definitely think we're getting a good number here.”
TEN 27, GB 17 — Titans beat Packers 27-17 outright, covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“Commanders. After a huge Monday night game, visiting the Texans. This line is three. Let me make sure I have it correct from FanDuel right now because it bouncing all over the place Plus three and a half We both got strong opinions on this game Well I thought you were about to make your executive decision I am going to make my exact decision right now on the Houston Texans at plus three and a half. The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Now you have your orders. Execute them. Executive decision. This does feel like a no-brainer. Me and Chad and five other people will be on Houston kicking myself. We knew to be on the Colts last week. That's how me and Chad make our good money. It's like you take these ugly dogs that everyone's shitting on all week and everyone hates. And, hell, in my burners here with Houston, we have no choice here. Especially once they hit three and a half, I'll be the sucker. Suck me in, Sportsbooks. I will take the three and a half.”
WSH 23, HOU 10 — Commanders beat Texans 23-10; Texans margin -13 vs the +3.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“This line is three. Let me make sure I have it correct from FanDuel right now because it bouncing all over the place Plus three and a half We both got strong opinions on this game Well I thought you were about to make your executive decision I am going to make my exact decision right now on the Houston Texans at plus three and a half. The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Now you have your orders. Execute them. Executive decision. This does feel like a no-brainer. Me and Chad and five other people will be on Houston kicking myself. We knew to be on the Colts last week. That's how me and Chad make our good money. It's like you take these ugly dogs that everyone's shitting on all week and everyone hates. And, hell, in my burners here with Houston, we have no choice here. Especially once they hit three and a half, I'll be the sucker. Suck me in, Sportsbooks. I will take the three and a half. I'll be that sucker. But you have to take this number. A home dog here against a team that just won in prime time in a divisional game. Chad just said they're a double-digit dog. Again, you'll see the trends that come out this week. Teams that are double-digit dogs that are going on the road as a favorite the following week, no bueno. So I'm loving where Chad's head's at. That's why he's offering up to me. But it's just a play that as soon as I saw the line came out, I said, well, me and Chad are going to look like idiots or really smart people in the Green Bay game. It's just you're playing the number here. You can't look at the teams. Got to just look at the number and see that this is an inflated line. Should be closer to a pick. Three and a half is a gift. I am so frustrated that I bet it at three because when we looked at the lines this morning, there were threes and there were two and a halves.”
WSH 23, HOU 10 — Commanders beat Texans 23-10; Texans margin -13 vs the +3 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“The Jets on the road at the Patriots. Patriots are three-point favorites. Simon, on Green Dot Daily this morning, you made an incredible point about the Patriots in this line compared to what it was two weeks ago. I want you to do it here. I want this to be our foxhole chat. Foxhole! Let's climb down into the foxhole. Last week it was uncomfortable. Oh no, two weeks coming back. It was uncomfortable. It's not fun in the foxhole. This week should give you a little more relief. It's not as gross. It's not as gross as it usually is. But the public is coming on the jet, so that's why I feel like it needs to be a foxhole game where it's like people are drinking the coolie they're coming in on the jets they're coming in on you know mac is broken this patriots team is offense is broken a jets team is ascending but chad just talked about it we talked on green dot daily my my favorite thing about this game is not even two or i guess it's coming up on three weeks but it is two weeks pretty much ago the patriots came here to new jersey they played the jets in the jets home stadium that line was minus three. Patriots won that game. Next week, Buffalo comes to New Jersey. They play the Jets. They lose. Everyone in the world was all over the Bills. Professionals were on the Jets, but the Jets win that game outright against the Bills. Going to a bye week, coming out of the bye week. Now they're going up to New England and the line's only plus three. That doesn't make sense. Why would the line not change at all when one team was on the road now at home? It's a simple fact the public likes the Jets now. And again, I'm looking at the app right now. That's where the tickets are. All the people are betting the Jets. They're taking them in their teasers. This is the Patriots team that you want to back against a Jets team historically they dominate. I'm going to have a bye week. Again, I love what the Jets have done. I love their defense and everything about it. The Patriots aren't a high-throwing team. And to me, that's the Jets' bread and butter, teams that need to throw the ball against them. Again, they have arguably two of the best corners in football right now. Sauce, just a rookie, but he's a shutdown corner in this league as we stand here. But against the run, you can't move the ball against this Jets team. That's how they beat them last time they played each other. So, to me, this line is probably more minus five, minus four and a half. but again, they upset the Bills. That was a big deal the last time people saw this Jets team play. So they're looking at this saying, well, plus three in a divisional game against a Patriots team that's not that good. I'll trust it. I'll just back the defense here where I like it the other way. It's like, man, I'm getting free points here for a Patriots team that knows exactly who they are. They don't have an injury to their number one running back. Their number one running back is healthy, and he's coming out of a bye. I just love this matchup and the perception of what people think of this Jets team right now. So I think we're getting free value on this Patriots team.”
NE 10, NYJ 3 — Patriots beat Jets 10-3, covering -3 (ESPN box score).
“Browns on the road at the Buffalo Bills. The Buffalo Bills, eight and a half point favorites. I won't make Matt Mitchell relive this past week. Because that was like, to not only have it happen, But everyone's still be talking about it as the game of the year. It was. You can't even turn on the television if you're a sports fan and the Bills fan. Again, the worst part of that Bills game, I think, for those fans was just the fact that they won and lost it like 10 times. And those are the worst games of experience. You keep winning games and losing. It's the same game over and over again. Don't know what's wrong with Josh. Like that game kind of falls on his shoulders there. Those turnovers, they're a real problem right now. Like he's on pace to have more turnovers than he's ever had in his career. It's not like Josh to be throwing these just reckless interceptions. I mean, that final one, how do you short arm that one? Like, again, your legs were working. It's just Josh has these little moments. These decisions, that's just not like him where last year he just rarely put himself in positions to turn the ball over, where it feels like this year he's more confident in his arm, taking bigger risk, and it's just not been working for him. So in a game that we're expecting a shit ton of snow and bad weather, I'll take the running team and Nick Chubb. It's just what the hell am I supposed to do here? I got to take the plus eight. I hate it. I want to back the Bills after such a bad loss. This is usually when they kill teams. but something something seems off about Josh Allen they've had three straight games now where they haven't scored a touchdown the second half that's not like Josh Allen this offense that usually they make adjustments and they're more dominant in the second half in his career it's not been that way this year so eight and a half eight points I'd grab it now just in case it really do get five feet of snow up there and it's freezing cold and this is kind of the best game you can imagine for a running team like the Cleveland Browns have but if it turns out to be RA weather, I will shift the other side because we just saw this Cleveland team against a pass happy team. They couldn't stop anything on offense that the Miami team was running at them. So I'm interested to see what the final info is on what the weather system is supposed to be. Because again, they're calling for like 15 feet of snow. It's supposed to be insane this Sunday for this game. So just to get ahead of it, I got no issue grabbing, And just like the Vikings last week, I have no issue grabbing the number now. You want to buy a position later on, you can. I grabbed the eight and I grabbed the eight and a half just to be safe. Because I do see it coming down if it is what they're saying it's going to be, which is really bad weather.”
BUF 31, CLE 23 — Bills beat Browns 31-23; Browns margin -8 vs the +8.5 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“Our favorite team in Germany, the Seattle Seahawks, the Buccaneers. Buccaneers are two and a half point favorites right now. Here's what's interesting. I was going to take the Buccaneers at minus two and a half. I hadn't seen the splits yet. 60% of the bets are on the Seahawks. 88% of the money is on the Buccaneers. We've hit peak Seahawks. We did the same thing with Atlanta. And we bet Atlanta that extra week they ended up losing to Cincinnati. I think last week was a peak Seahawks moment. I think it's a different game against the Buccaneers. I think this is a get right spot at a short number. Sure it is. But guess what? I will not be sucked in. Every week, I have these damn pros hitting me up being like, quit taking the Seahawks. It's going to catch up to them. And every week they keep winning for me and they keep covering. So I'll keep riding them. I love the Seahawks.”
16-21 — Buccaneers beat Seahawks 21-16 in Munich; Seattle lost by 5, failing to cover +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“Browns. Boy, this number is moving, too. Opened at four, down to three and a half, visiting the Dolphins. We got a Pro Joe alert. 53% of the tickets on the Dolphins, 60% of the money on the Browns. Simon. Simon Says. Grab it now. Simon Says! When Simon Says do it, we do what Simon Says. We're laughing because we talked this morning. I told Chad I loved it at plus four, and now it's already moving to plus three and a half. So I would just grab it before it's at three.”
17-39 — Dolphins beat Browns 39-17; Cleveland lost by 22, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I love that position in Denver. It's bumped up to three. I could see it getting to three and a half with the public coming in so heavy. But I would grab the three just in case. I don't think it's going there. Yeah, so I'd grab it just in case now. This is one of the bets I made right when I saw it get to three from two and a half. I grabbed the Denver.”
10-17 — Titans beat Broncos 17-10; Denver lost by 7, failing to cover +3 (ESPN box score).
“The amount of tickets written on the Cowboys compared to green Bay, the money will probably be 12 to one or 13 to one written on the Cowboys compared to green Bay, just because of all the parlays and teasers that'll be on the Cowboys. So you can roll the dice and wait, but like I just said, I'd grab that five and a half. You can still get it. If it's five. Yeah. Throw a little bit on there.”
28-31 — Packers beat Cowboys 31-28 in overtime, covering +5.5 with the outright win (ESPN box score).
“bears minus two and a half the next game that i want to talk about the los angeles chargers visiting the San Francisco 49ers. The Chargers are seven point underdogs. I'm telling you right now, I am telling you right now, Simon, we have hit peak over correction, way peak over correction. The market has come down so far on the Chargers, Yeah. And he's gone so far up on the Niners. Yep. Chargers plus seven is an autoplay. Yeah. And I had to wait for my guy, Evan Abrams, to put out his article. But all the trends will back up. Faden, Shanahan, primetime, favorite, never good. You always take the other side in these positions. And historically, it will work out for you. Chargers is a big dog. That's where we like them. We don't like them as favorites, right? Like we joked last week, they're not a good team as a favorite for some reason. and they always play teams close that they should beat up on. This team, again, no one is expecting them to beat up on them, right? You're expecting this to be a closer game, especially towards this 49ers side. Such a letdown spot, right, for the 49ers. Like Chad just said, they've been sitting back all week hearing about how great they are as they sit there at 4-4. So crazy to think they might drop this game, then they'll be 4-5, and that is a massive, massive deal for that Seahawks team sitting there at 6-3. But, whew, seven points. Seven points for Herbert here. I love that. I love just the chances of the backdoor at that big of a number for a guy that won't stop slinging it. So, I'm right there with Chad. Love it at seven.”
16-22 — 49ers beat Chargers 22-16; Los Angeles lost by 6, covering +7 (ESPN box score).
“Seahawks, plus two. [34:38] Give it to me.”
31-21 — Seahawks beat Cardinals 31-21, covering +2 with the outright win (ESPN box score).
“Vikings on the road at the Commanders. Here's one that we both love. Simon Says. Simon Says. Yeah. When Simon Says do it, we do what Simon Says. Simon Says, another three and a half. I think last week we gave out Cleveland. They were just at three. this week. We got the little bump. I don't know if it was good because of TJ Hocketson. I feel like it was three and a half when I bet it Sunday night. No, it's been three and a half since it opened, basically. Situationally, we like Washington. We like their defense. We like the rhythm they found on offense. That was the first time they've come back in a game. They were down double digits in the fourth quarter since Mark Brunel. Washington has been lost for the last 20 years. Again, I'm not saying Heineke's found them, but they're four and four right now in the hardest division of football like you can't just act like that's not pretty impressive for this Washington team that I kind of left them for dead as well but we've been riding in the last couple weeks here and they've been winning for us I'll keep it going again an undervalued line we joked this feels like a Carson Wentz tax like they they're they're going off the data from earlier in the season when Wentz was the quarterback as well I make this line closer to two and a half two I'll take this every time again the Vikings are really good Chad tried to catch them last week against the Cardinals I I just – they are going to get caught. This Vikings team is going to get caught. Like, they keep getting away with these games that their defense gives up a ton of yards, but they get into prompt fumbles on the kickoffs or drop punts or weird interceptions by their defense. So, situationally, I like Washington. The fact that their defense has been playing so well, that's huge to me because I do think they're going to be able to get pressure on Kirk here, which is a big deal. So, I'm backing Heineke. This will be three weeks straight now. I backed them, but he's produced, he's covered for us every week. We backed him, Chad. Yeah. I love Washington in this spot.”
20-17 — Vikings beat Commanders 20-17; Washington lost by 3, covering +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“They're seven point underdogs. No Jamar Chase. Oh, God. No Jamar Chase. I know. The Panthers are sort of probably getting out of their that glow us against the world feeling you have when your best player is traded and your coach is fired. and, you know, the Bengals were so bad on Monday Night Football that you almost feel like you're probably getting a discount here and the Panthers are overinflated. Yeah. I mean, obviously, we both wish it was six and a half, but it feels too easy sometimes, Jen. Like the games we do, I don't know if you want to make this our foxhole bet, but it feels that way just because I don't really think anyone's going to be on the Bengals this week. I just see everyone coming in on the Panthers just because they don't get it. There's schedule of losses in football. I know it sounds crazy. I couldn't tell. I tried to explain the reasoning to everyone about that Browns matchup and throwing out all the DVO and all the crazy numbers, just in the fact that you have to take a week to week. And that Cincinnati game that was such a bad spot for them Huge win now playing against a divisional foe that had a bad loss on the road Joe Burrow now 0 against that Browns team in his career He just does not play well against them. So now you get Joe at home off an embarrassing loss like that. I feel like every time he's in the spot, he dominates the team. Just so happens it's a team that I'm with you, Chad. I think they might be reeling a little bit. Like you just lost a divisional game that was four first in your division. Now you're going on the road again, right? Back-to-back road games. That's hard. That's a really tough spot to be put in this Carolina team and PJ. And PJ played so well in that game against Atlanta. I just can't see him doing it again against a Bengals team. Their defense, those two touchdowns they gave up to the Browns in the second half, first touchdowns they gave up all season in the second half. So just a bounce-back spot for the Bengals. I love it. Back-to-back weeks, I was taking Fox on a favorite. 49ers last week, this week, the Bengals. Yeah, I'm down with that. Let's put it in the foxhole. Let's climb down into the foxhole.”
42-21 — Bengals beat Panthers 42-21, covering -7 by a 21-point margin (ESPN box score).
“We're going to get sucked in here. Chargers visiting Atlanta. The Falcons plus three and a half. The NFC South leading Falcons. They are one game up on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints. Hey, let's take a flashback to our NFC South preview episode from August. Well, what do you want to say about your favorite team, the Falcons? 28-1 to win the division. Four and a half is a win total. Chad, the only reason we like them is because they're 28-1 to win the division. Way too big. Atlanta's just left for dead. There's no hype. It's just gross. That's where I come in. It's too big. Like, Atlanta should not be 28-1 to win this division. I'm fine with putting $100, $200 on this kind of bet. But, you know, come December, there are one or two games back. I can hedge out of it. Like they just not 28 to one to win this division bad The Falcons plus three and a half I mean we don have a choice Like again this is probably going to be in our big balls but of the week so all the people listening live you're getting a head start here. Grab it. I'd grab it.”
20-17 — Chargers beat Falcons 20-17; Atlanta lost by 3, covering +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“We talked about some games that we like. I mentioned Seattle plus two. And I liked it to about one. I mentioned two and a half. It opened to three. It's down to two and a half now, too. You agree or disagree? We're both blinded by the light. We love Seattle. They've been good to us. Like we almost put them in the contest at minus three and a half because we just like them that much. They're good. They're just a good team. Gino is good right now. Like the passes he had to lock it were incredible. His deep ball is really good. Even DK Metcalf, who was banged up, was making huge plays for them. And then Kenneth Walker, the running back, has just been a lightning rod for them. Like the guy is really hard to break down, tackle and break down. So everything Chad going to say is true about Seattle I wanted to take them right when they opened up three I did throw a little bit on it because it was like okay this is a good number How can I not I don't know what to do. I don't know what to do here, Chad. It feels like I'm being sucked in on my love. Here's what we know. We know that defensively they're relatively the same. You look at yards per carry, same bracket, yards per attempt, defensively passing, same bracket. But Seahawks are just so superior offensively right now. With a quarterback, statistically, on the stats that matter, looking inside, yards per attempt offensively, yards per carry, they're crushing it. Kenneth Walker is going to win Rookie of the Year at this point. He was amazing against the Giants. The bookmakers got lazy, and they opened the Cardinals with minus three because it was a divisional game between two teams they think are even, and they made them three-point favorites at home, and that's not the right side. Just don't hold against us, people. Like right now I'm on Seattle. Let me talk to the boys and find out if me and Chad are stepping in one because this feels too easy. I'm with Chad. Like right when I saw that plus three, I grabbed it. Not shocked at all.”
31-21 — Seahawks beat Cardinals 31-21, covering +3 with the outright win (ESPN box score).
“no no so I love the Texans at plus two and a half here as you were talking hoping to get the three”
HOU 10, TEN 17 — Titans beat Texans 17-10; Houston +2.5 busts, margin -7 (ESPN).
“Simon says it's Browns plus three.”
CLE 32, CIN 13 — Browns beat Bengals 32-13; Cleveland +3 covers, margin +19 (ESPN).
“too late it's a bed off vikings one o'clock at home i should have known better to get sucked in on this cardinals love of course they're giving us plus three and a half they want us to take this game so bad they're begging you to take arizona guess what the public is doing they're coming in heavy on arizona chad getting sucked in the hopkins hype i'm gonna lose money on kirk i've already accepted it i gotta back it so this sadly will not be in our contest because there's no way I'm taking the Cardinals here. Had a couple calls about it. A couple of sharps on the Vikings as well. But that didn even flip me It was just more looking at the data It just like Arizona sucks They probably should have lost to New Orleans last week They got very lucky on two pick sixes before the half They haven't fixed a lot of their issues. I like the Hopkins move. I agree. It's a big upgrade for them. He doesn't fix anything for them on offense. They got major issues. So, to me, Vikings, full game, Vikings first half, fuck the Cardinals.”
MIN 34, ARI 26 — Vikings beat Cardinals 34-26; Minnesota -3.5 covers, margin +8 (ESPN).
“all comes down to coaching so when I look at this game the Jags and the Broncos yeah I would love to fade this Broncos team that just seems like they're completely falling apart who's to say the Jaguars on either. Again, this is it for their season. So that would be, I guess, my reason you can take them here. But again, last week, we went three no on Tuesday unders I gave out. This is another game I'll be on the under. It's just don't overthink it. To me, two really good defenses. Like last week, the Jaguars played really well against that Giants offense. I see the same thing against a Denver team that just can't move the ball. Denver defense is good. Like they took everything away last week and they still couldn't do anything. I only gave up 16 points at home, couldn't get the win i just see the broncos playing hard still on defense um to me this is i mean chad we might be able to talk into it because we always do on the drag wires i just can't put them in our contest they just are not good to us so to me it's a stay away i actually feel like by by thursday this will be on the broncos yeah i think this might be this might get us some sharp calls and i think by thursday this ends up being our big balls better of the week. By the way, the total, you mentioned the under, the total in this game is 39 right now.”
JAX 17, DEN 21 — Broncos beat Jaguars 21-17; combined 38 stays under 39 (ESPN).
“So it's maybe I'm walking into a chat and I felt like I was last week with the Jets. It hit like the Jets won for us. I'm going to keep Ryan. I just think it's another good spot to get divisional team dog at home with a great defense. I like this matchup. Yeah, it actually goes against. It goes against our usual signals, right? Because the Patriots are a team that just got blown out and in prime time. the Jets are all of a sudden a public darling so you'd almost expect the Jets to be favored and to fade the Jets in this scenario yet they're plus two and a half it makes no sense”
NYJ 17, NE 22 — Patriots beat Jets 22-17; New York +2.5 busts, margin -5 (ESPN).
“dogs yeah it's a panthers on the road at the falcons uh falcons are four and a half auto play falcons i don't care right falcons falcons falcons falcons falcons”
ATL 37, CAR 34 — Falcons beat Panthers 37-34 in OT; Atlanta -4.5 busts, margin +3 (ESPN).
“So this line stinks. But at the same time, I think you're getting good value. I got this at minus three for Vegas. Again, better offense, more talented defense. I'm just trying not to overrate the Saints team like I have been, where I like their identity of running the ball. It doesn matter if any don turn the ball over again for interceptions last game They not all on him but some of them are just terrible reads and that the problem with any Dalton and I don know the Raiders to me in this position Anything under three kind of has has to be a buy I don know if it going to make our contest but I be on it The minus one and a half or minus two.”
NO 24, LV 0 — Saints beat Raiders 24-0; Las Vegas -2 busts, margin -24 (ESPN).
“Do I like him enough to bet him at plus nine and a half against the Cowboys? I really want to. Doesn't it feel like the Cowboys stole one last week? I mean, the Lions were covering all 58 minutes. Yeah. I mean, the amount of assholes that texted me were feeling so proud about their call on Dallas. Again, I didn't have that much on the Lions, but I sure as hell didn't bring it up to Chad Sunday morning. There were Lions 7.5 and the Houston 7.5, and I was just like, if I even mention this, Chad's going to make us put these in, because that's a good value on two teams. Yeah. Luckily, I didn't even bring it up. Chad didn't, because he asked me what games we had in. I left the Lions out, because I had them in on Wednesday. He's getting seven and a half. I feel like that was a good number, but yeah, these assholes are right. I could not believe the Lions didn't cover that number. So yeah, looking at this week with the Cowboys, how lucky can they be? Like they're getting a team and the Bears that's young and experienced off a huge primetime win. Now going on the second road game, autoplay every time on the Cowboys here.”
DAL 49, CHI 29 — Cowboys beat Bears 49-29; Dallas -9.5 covers, margin +20 (ESPN).
“Cardinals on the road at the Vikings. Cardinals are four-point underdogs. this is a sneaky one to me this game yeah because I know what you want to do what do I want to do you want to take the Cardinals I do are we going to do that I didn't know what to do with this game because as soon as it came out I like backing Kirk at home but yeah that's a I don't know that's a lot of points to Kirk to be favored by it I do think it's probably because of the record right and everyone's just off the Cardinals so I'm I'm there with Chad it's it's a pro play it's just like Pittsburgh. I really want to take Pittsburgh against Miami, held my nose and did it. And again, got rewarded for it I guess I got to do it with the Cardinals It just it a smart number three and a half against a Vikings team that they just can blow teams out They keep every game close It doesn matter how good or bad you are So I like that play I like it because I just don't think you can underestimate the return of DeAndre Hopkins. Yeah. No, he's been great. I can't knock it. I said it last week. I know, but that was New Orleans, dude. New Orleans threw two pick sixes before the half. I mean, and they made it a ball game to end it. The Cardinals are just bad. They are a bad team, but I just – I'm going to keep getting caught by this Vikings team because, like, again, Miami should have beat them outright, and they didn't even cover in that game. So maybe the Vikings will be like the Giants. They'll just keep catching me trying to chase this – you know, chase the dragon, but I got to do it. I got to take the Cardinals here.”
MIN 34, ARI 26 — Vikings beat Cardinals 34-26; Arizona +3.5 busts, margin -8 (ESPN).
“Commanders, plus three at the Colts. The Sam Ellinger era begins. Taylor Heineke. Taylor made to bet. Like, you got two terrible quarterbacks, two teams no one cares about. It's a corner TV game. How are you not betting this game? Any self-respecting bettor must put money on this game. I was thinking about making this my assignment says I got another one because this is going to be the most public side. I was hoping it was going to be Matt Ryan. Right. At plus four. That was a gift when it was Matt Ryan and a quarterback. Yeah. Not that I have any faith in this kid, Sam. I'm happy to fade him. Get the plus three. I didn't I wouldn't have moved the number that much. So let's be honest. Like we'll see again. Maybe Ryan, Matt Ryan was what was holding together this team. I just, the guy had the most turnovers, the most sacks across the board. The most interceptions, the most fumbled, most sack player right now in football was Matt Ryan. So I don't know what to do with it because I think Chad Nailer, where it's like the dog, whatever, if the Colts were the underdog, I would have taken them. Washington's the underdog, I'll take them. These teams are interchangeable. The Washington's just slightly better on paper with what they have on offense. But we'll see. Again, Jonathan Taylor, he has not gotten going. Like that's the thing right now with the Colts. We're just waiting to see if he can get going. And maybe that's why they're making their move. Or they really are tanking. Because, again, there's five good quarterbacks this year. They're 0-2 against Tennessee. I guess they're taking a position in tanking. But it's just bizarre to me. Again, you have Nick Foles as the backup now. I don't really know what the Colts are doing here. But, yeah, I wanted to make this Simon Says. But, again, I think this is the number all week. But I'm going to grab it now anyway, plus three.”
IND 16, WSH 17 — Commanders beat Colts 17-16; Washington +3 covers, margin +1 (ESPN).
“All right. 49ers in the foxhole. We're in the foxhole. 49ers. Let's climb down into the foxhole. 49ers minus one and a half. Foxhole.”
LAR 14, SF 31 — 49ers beat Rams 31-14; San Francisco -1.5 covers, margin +17 (ESPN).
“OK but I would still take three Even then you still take it which means your Simon says if you tell me your Simon says if you going against Matt Mitchell and the Buffalo Bills with the Green Bay Packers at plus 11 and a half man, that is just mean. No, I'm crazy. I'm not that crazy. Even though I do think this is probably the time to buy on Green Bay, what did we talk about when the Bills played Pittsburgh many weeks ago? Josh Allen is a double-digit favorite. He's 6-1 ATS in his career. He beats the shit out of bad teams, and he enjoys doing it. Love it. Matt Mitchell, didn't you guys just have a bye week? Yeah, we've just spent two weeks having everyone tell us we're the best team in football. So, yeah, I don't disagree that it might be a time to fade, but it's just a stay away. It's just a stay away situation. So what are we doing here? Are we passing? So I was going to say, this is another opportunity where if you want to play it safe, you could just do Bill's second half because that's been cashing this year, taking them second half on the spread. But again, I'm on two big favorites this week. One's the Eagles. The other one's going to be the Bills.”
BUF 27, GB 17 — Bills beat Packers 27-17; Buffalo -11.5 busts, margin +10 (ESPN).
“The Bengals visiting the Browns. The Browns are three point underdogs at home. I know what you're going to say here. So go ahead and say it. Simon says, take the Browns. No brainer.”
CLE 32, CIN 13 — Browns beat Bengals 32-13; Cleveland +3 covers, margin +19 (ESPN).
“But yeah, to me, the Jaguars, as soon as that number opened, it was a no brainer. And then all the trends and numbers start pouring in and it makes you pause. But it doesn't change my position. But yeah, like that, I think someone was saying it was what, two and 14, the Jaguars are playing against NFC teams, their last 16. So it's like, I think I put too much into Doug changing the culture in one year where it looks like it's going to take a little while here, like a culture that is just, just loses. I mean, yeah, and that Blake Bortles year, that was a special year. don't we all saw through that right that was just a kind of a fluky year the jaguars made it always this afc championship game they've done nothing but go backwards since then so um jaguars team as a pro me and chad are gonna bet it we're probably gonna end up talking about it and put in the competition but it's a bizarre line like the books are getting money on the giants and they're keeping it at three and people are thinking they're getting a good good number on a five and one team against what I just talked about, a bad team in the Jaguars. But again, this is a spot where I have to trust the numbers and take the Jaguars.”
NYG 23, JAX 17 — Giants beat Jaguars 23-17; Jaguars -3 loses outright, spread busts (ESPN).
“contest uh the other game houston plus seven it's another one we're like two teams similarly ranked offensively and defensively uh the raiders are seven point favorites at home 70 of the tickets on the Raiders 80 of the money on the Texans just based on that you play the Texans but this number is so big I cannot figure out why this number is so big yeah no again we might be stepping in someone pointed out to me that me and you were on all three of the dogs for the late games me and Chad don't even think that way honestly we're just picking games I didn't realize that yeah I mean either yeah I hear it like yeah I'm sure statistically a favorite's going to win me and chat don't bet that way like i'm not only going to pick a dog or just pick a favorite just to have one in there um i'm with you houston that feels like a good number to me at seven scary a little bit because exactly what you just said it feels like the jets last week where i'm trying not to get scared off the number just trust that it's a good number where it's like in what world should green bay have we been catching seven and a half against the jets same thing here in what world is vegas seven points better than houston than anyone yeah i mean they just haven't shown it to this point so houston just plays games close and they let teams back in it i just again i'm with you chad i'm hoping this is seven and a half in our contest because that would be a great number for this but um at seven it's it's still a good strong play for me”
LV 38, HOU 20 — Raiders beat Texans 38-20; Houston +7 busts, margin -18 (ESPN).
“What about the Falcons plus six? I feel like this is the game that is a line of demarcation. We talk about value. We talk about getting out of the peak, getting out of the peak of the market. It feels too big for me to still be playing Cincinnati as a six favorite But are we pressing our luck I think it takes balls We betting a six and a zero team ATS. Are you saying right now the Atlanta Falcons are a big balls better the week? I am. Big balls better the week.”
CIN 35, ATL 17 — Bengals beat Falcons 35-17; Atlanta +6 busts, margin -18 (ESPN).
“the giants the very lucky giants are visiting the jaguars jaguars are minus three right now are we wrong about the jaguars we are in love with the jaguars and i feel like the jaguars have been the team where we have let us down that our biases are getting in the way is it though they were that took a third and 10 last second touchdown Like that was brutal But that just gambling I don't know. I don't, I don't want to react to it too much. Both these teams are burned us in totally opposite ways. Of course we should be, I'm betting. I can tell you right now, I'm betting Jaguars.”
NYG 23, JAX 17 — Giants beat Jaguars 23-17; Jaguars -3 loses outright, spread busts (ESPN).
“Simon says bet the Washington Commanders plus five and a half.”
WSH 23, GB 21 — Commanders beat Packers 23-21; Washington +5.5 covers (ESPN).
“Falcons, 6-0 against the spread. We have bet them basically every week. Talking about, is it time to get off a team? They are on the road, at the Bengals, six-point underdogs. It feels like a really big number for the Falcons, but I am starting to worry about regression. for who the Falcons yeah I don't know their their run scheme seems to work like it's really weird and exotic and teams don't seem like they know how to defend against it because they're the only ones that are really running this it's like an army navy's three back set with Mariota as the running back QB um I look the other way like six points against Cincy have they won a game by one six points in like seven months I don't know like their whole playoff run was this um it's it's bizarre like this number again i'm with chad where it's like we got to hop off last week was simple for me with atlanta like that yep that we we spotted that a mile away of just 49ers in a letdown spot um bangles i want to say they're in due for a letdown spot but they're not really like this isn't a letdown spot where it's more so for atlanta but it's a big number and atlanta keeps games close so i feel like i'm going against two things here it's like i know for a fact since doesn't like to win big and they usually keep games close. I know what Atlanta is. Atlanta keeps games close and they just run it. And I saw last week the Saints were able to move the ball on the ground against this Bengals defense. Bengals, again, I told the stat last week, they have only given up one or zero touchdowns in the second half this year. Like their defense is better than people think. That was their first over of the year last year. So maybe I'll be wrong and their defense will show up and completely shut down this Atlanta offense. And like Chad said, they're 6-0 ATS. They're due for a letdown spot in a letdown game. But it hard for me to get off That just such a big number for a Bengals team that just plays games close Yeah I surprised the market isn adjusting to this yet Are you though Because there still plus 700 to win their division even though they should have beat the Saints and they should have probably upset the Bucs. And they're still plus 700 and the Bucs are big favorites. It just seems like we're adjusted. We're all on this Atlanta team. The market is not. The public is still not buying in Atlanta. So I'm going to keep buying because I still think we're getting a good number here, brother.”
CIN 35, ATL 17 — Bengals beat Falcons 35-17; Atlanta +6 busts, margin -18 (ESPN).
“I got an exec decision coming up because I got the Houston Texans on the road at the Raiders plus seven. A choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Now you have your orders. Execute them. Executive decision. Houston Texans, one of the best teams against the spread this year. 75% of the money of the tickets coming in on the Raiders. 64% of the bets coming in on the Texans. show me the texans boom bada boom bada boom yeehaw does that mean that's your executive play yeah another no-brainer play houston they play games close they're not as bad as people perceive raiders hate to play with big leads i feel like every time they even have a lead they somehow give it back again i can't get over that cardinals game i really cannot get over especially after we've seen Cardinals so many weeks in, Raiders should be so much better than their record says they are. But at the same time, who would that be catching seven against a Texas team that can move the ball and has a pretty solid defense? So I know there's a lot of questions to me on this Raiders defensive side. I don't have his money for the Texans. I think they actually have a pretty solid team all around. Their biggest question mark is just the QB position. So I'll be with you, Chad. I'll take that seven put in the contest”
LV 38, HOU 20 — Raiders beat Texans 38-20; Houston +7 busts, margin -18 (ESPN).
“The Seattle Seahawks are on the road They are six and a half point underdogs against the Los Angeles Chargers I don see any reason at this point to not bet the Seahawks when they are nearly a touchdown underdog The Chargers have shown me nothing. I know, but at the same time, this is a coin flip game. That's probably going to end with a seven. So like I feel more comfortable taking the Seahawks money line. I do take in the six and a half, but I'm 100 percent with Chad. As soon as this game came out, it was like seven, seven and a half before the Chargers played.”
LAC 23, SEA 37 — Seahawks beat Chargers 37-23; Seattle +6.5 covers (ESPN).
“The Kansas City Chiefs are on the road. They're visiting the San Francisco 49ers. They are three-point favorites right now. Boxhole. I knew it. Let's climb down into the foxhole. Easy Foxhole 49ers. God, I hate this. If you're new here, me and Chad, we almost always fade Shanahan as a favorite, but we always back them as a dog. And this is a dog position with Shanahan”
SF 23, KC 44 — Chiefs beat 49ers 44-23; San Francisco +3 busts, margin -21 (ESPN).
“still like atlanta but yeah am i shocked it's sitting there still five and a half not really”
ATL 28, SF 14 — Falcons beat 49ers 28-14; Atlanta +5.5 covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“It is, it is by definition we have to do, you got to hold your nose. You got to buy low, you got to sack up and you got to bet the Steelers a plus eight and a half. Like you think this takes more balls or do you think taking the Panthers with a new head coach and a no name at quarterback takes bigger balls? I just think that was the other one I was thinking for our big balls, but I, Like, I just think that it takes much bigger balls to bet a team that looks as bad as the Steelers do. To take the Panthers at like, what is it? Plus 10 right now? To take them against a team that nobody has a lot of faith in, in the Rams, that has looked really bad. Everybody's going to be on the Panthers. That doesn't take balls. It's not a betting split, but that's fair. It takes balls to bet the Steelers. It is. And I won't take any of your glory if it hits. This is, this is, I, cause I am betting it,”
PIT 20, TB 18 — Steelers beat Buccaneers 20-18; Pittsburgh +8.5 covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“How about Seattle Seahawks plus three? There we go. That's what I've been waiting on. Love Seattle. Love Seattle. Yeah, I love the matchup of the Seattle offense. I think Geno is, what, number three or number four right now in the league in a QBR rating and a bunch of other pass metrics. The guy is on a roll. His outside weapons, DK, Metcalf, Lockett, healthy. Going up against a secondary of the Cardinals, that has been absolutely terrible. They give up a 30th most receiving yards right now. That's a bad spot for this Cardinals to be put in. And, yeah, no shock. The public has come in heavy on the Cardinals just because there are there are on paper a better team than the Seattle team but I still think they're just being underrated Seattle team again a home dog divisional dog in this position the books might be sucking me and Chad in we'll pay for it because this this is usually really good to us taking this number in this position I'm happy to take Seattle in this spot especially coming off such a brutal non-cover last week when they should have covered feels like we're getting a little bit of value just the fact that people lost money on them last week it doesn't make any sense to me that Arizona is in this, this line is down to based off last year though. They're, they, they made the playoffs. You look at their win total. Yeah. The line, the line is down to two and a half, by the way, it's no longer at three. I hate it. Still take it at two and a half. I agree. Like it doesn't make any sense to me. You've got a better coach in Pete Carroll right now. Yeah.”
SEA 19, ARI 9 — Seahawks beat Cardinals 19-9; Seattle +2.5 covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“They need an identity. So, again, it's scary backing Zach Wilson, but at 7.5, it's still out there at 7.5. Let's grab it. You got to grab it against a Green Bay team that's just struggled this year. The only team they really dominated and put away was the Bears, and we just touched on it. The Bears probably should only lost by seven points. So, I think you're getting a good number with this Jets team. It's going to be a public dog, but I'm on it.”
NYJ 27, GB 10 — Jets beat Packers 27-10; New York +7.5 covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“is the Jags against the Colts. There we go. Yep. I loved it. We were hoping to get the three. We both betted it two and a half. Again, I was going to really lay in big money on this one if they got the three.”
IND 34, JAX 27 — Colts beat Jaguars 34-27; Jacksonville +2.5 busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Give me the Commanders.”
WSH 12, CHI 7 — Commanders beat Bears 12-7; Washington moneyline wins (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“line underdog parlay my dog likes your dog your dog likes my dog first one no brainer Everyone knew we take it Dolphins against the Vikings Who the hell are the Dolphins? I don't care if it's a third string or a teddy. If I don't play the number, I'm definitely playing the money line just because this is such a bad spot for a four and one Vikings team. That's a little fraudulent. So I'll take that one on the money line. I wanted the Jaguars. There's no value there anymore, so I'll just throw it away. Give me the Jets. Give me Atlanta. Give me the Saints. Give me the Seahawks. To me, they're all good dogs.”
Moneyline round robin busts: Dolphins lost (MIN 24, MIA 16), Jets won (NYJ 27, GB 10), Falcons won (ATL 28, SF 14), Saints lost (CIN 30, NO 26), Seahawks won (SEA 19, ARI 9) — all per ESPN Week 6 scoreboard.
“We move on Yeah All right Bengals two favorites on the road at the saints the line has moved up the bangles getting everything all the money all the tickets look i think i'm going to this foxhole chef we're going with the saints right i mean of course you know me all right let's climb down into the foxhole because the saints are the side here yeah like Of course you take the Saints. No one's going to want it that's listening to the show. Like, if I could have made this our big balls, I would have. Because it's Tuesday. Foxhole. Jump on in. We're going to the Foxhole. New Orleans Saints plus two. No brainer. As soon as this line came out, I knew I was going to be on it. We have a Bengals team that we've seen what they are, right?”
CIN 30, NO 26 — Bengals beat Saints 30-26; New Orleans +2 busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Simon says Atlanta plus five and a half. Love it. Exec decision, Cleveland minus three. Love it.”
ATL 28, SF 14 — Falcons beat 49ers 28-14; Atlanta +5.5 covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Cowboys visiting the Eagles. You can get the Eagles at four and a half point favorites right now. It's a fucking buy for me. Yeah, no brainer. Come on. Are you kidding me? Easy bet.”
PHI 26, DAL 17 — Eagles beat Cowboys 26-17; Philadelphia -4.5 covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“New York Jets plus three is our big balls. Bet of the week.”
NYJ 40, MIA 17 — Jets beat Dolphins 40-17; New York Jets +3 covers easily (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“the bills minus 14 and Scrooge roulette. That's how much of a man I am.”
BUF 38, PIT 3 — Bills beat Steelers 38-3 (margin 35); Buffalo -14 covers (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“thinking about it like this. Dolphins, road favorites against the New York Jets. Everybody knows who listens to this podcast. The first thing I look for is a home underdog. That's a historically great spot. It's a contrarian spot. It's a spot I love to bet. So on Monday morning, I'm walking the dog again. I'm listening to the Action Network podcast. It's the week four wrap up early preview for week five with Brendan Glashine and Joe Gallant and Brandon Anderson. It's a great show. It's like when I get up on Monday mornings, I just want to recap some things. And this is the perfect show to go through like quick hit. What happened for the weekend? What happened in the game How did it play out betting wise And then a couple of games they both leaning towards plus a preview of the Monday night game And Brandon had this take on the Dolphins game and the Dolphins minus three and about sort of the comparison of this line versus what it was even a week before And then I remembered watching Teddy Bridgewater and thinking about how bad the Jets are and that they would be a little bit overvalued because they beat the Steelers on the road. And it made sense to me. So I hit the Dolphins minus three and I love it. Yeah. I don't care if me and Jerry stepped in. I'll be on it too. Like, I grabbed the three and it came out. Now it's three and a half, which makes total sense.”
NYJ 40, MIA 17 — Jets beat Dolphins 40-17; Miami -3 busts (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“one on the board yet. Seahawks at the Saints, five and a half points. I made four bets Sunday to Monday. We've talked about two of them, the Dolphins and the Falcons. The third one, Seattle plus five and a half, which right now is getting 64% of the bets and 87% of the money. Yeah, I bet it too. I don't care. We're walking in it together, brother. Who cares? Are we in a foxhole? Yeah, sure. We're in the foxhole.”
NO 39, SEA 32 — Saints beat Seahawks 39-32; Seattle +5.5 busts (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“um titans on the road at the commanders i mean the commanders do not deserve our respect as three-point home underdogs and the titans do not deserve our respect as two and a half point road favorites this is a corner tv game i'm off it i'm just gonna bet the titans the simple fact that Everything I read is the team has quit on Rivera and Washington. And, like, let me make some money off that because I stayed away. I think I lost money on them against the Eagles. Stayed away last week because it was just like – again, I just didn't trust their O-line against the Dallas defensive line. And then this week it's just kind of the same feeling of weird number. Tennessee is just good. Like they not great They not like this team that going to I still think Jags are the class of the South They going to win that division But Tennessee at the end of the year being 9 making the playoffs just because it a variable and it's just that kind of grit of a team. No one will be shocked. Like that game last week, Denver versus the Colts, was just classic Titans team. It's like they get a big lead and they just grind out, holding a team off the entire rest of the game. So I'm kind of with you, Chad. I wouldn't put this one in our contest. I thought about it at 2.5 with Titans. Um, cause Washington, honestly is a true train wreck, but a three, I wouldn't put it in. But again, this is when I bet right when it came out, just cause I just, I had to start buying in on all the rumors I'm hearing right now in Washington that they've truly quit on their coach.”
TEN 21, WSH 17 — Titans beat Commanders 21-17; Tennessee -2.5 covers (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“favorites. That's netsuite.com slash favorites. Bears at the Vikings. Bears plus seven, let's say. This team is dreadful. And if it wasn't for the Vikings who just don't know how to close out a game, this would be an automatic take the favorite for me. That's why that's another way for me. Automatic take the Bears here. Yeah, like I'm not taking them. I don't have an opinion on this game. I don't feel strongly about it. I bet it just because I thought the seven was going to disappear quick, but luckily it's still out there in case anyone wants it. But grab the seven or you can just wait and hope it gets seven and a half.”
MIN 29, CHI 22 — Vikings beat Bears 29-22 (margin 7); Chicago +7 pushes exactly (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“Cowboys visiting the aforementioned Rams, four and a half point underdogs at Los Angeles. Will it be Cooper Rush? Will it be Dak Prescott? Probably going to be Cooper Rush. Should Cooper Rush be the quarterback from here on out? What would the line be if it's Dak Prescott? Would it be lower? Are you getting a better price if it's being listed as Cooper Rush? Does it matter? Simon, how are you stacking up these quarterbacks? How do you pirate this game? autoplay for me on the rams here like there's just a no-brainer bet where the cowboys that's fun they beat the bangles in a last second win which was like more about the bangles right they kind of stunk that whole game up then what are they going to do they go beat the giants who do we really think the giants are that good nah then they come home they beat the commanders come on so now they're on the road getting all the public love all the public bets all the public money against a ramps team that just looked like absolutely donkey shit last night. It's sometimes I don't even have to do the work. Like I knew I was gonna have a big number on this and it was minus six for me. Sure enough, they hung a four, four and a half. And it was just a no brainer bet for me taking the Rams here. Not fun, right? Because Stafford did get pressure last night and you got going up against this incredible D line of the Cowboys. But come on, this is just too... It's two different worlds here. It's like the top class of the NFC and the Rams playing against a team that I just think they're overachieving right now, and this is kind of where they come back to earth. So, Cowboys, I won't be shocked to see this number drop. So, you could wait if you wanted and hope to get a four here. But I'm going to take it just because I know other pros are going to have the numbers too. And just defensively, this is a nice matchup scheme-wise for the Rams.”
DAL 22, LAR 10 — Cowboys beat Rams 22-10; LA Rams -4.5 busts (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“I texted you on Sunday night and said, it's gross that we have to talk about the Cardinals at plus six when they posted the line to host the Philadelphia Eagles. That line is now five and a half moving in the Cardinals direction. Yeah, I guess that's pro money. I'm going to go against the pros this week, though. I don't I do not see it with Arizona anyway. way like they're just they are bad like they're just the coaching's bad they're bad I can't get over how bad their scheme is and I watch these games and it's just Kyler Murray's so good like whoever whenever they get rid of Cliff and they if they bring in some offensive mind they're going to be so lucky because again I'm with people like I have no idea if this kid studies if he's lazy if all he cares about is just fame and having the money but his talent level is out of this world with Kyler Murray. So if you're betting on that and you're betting on the Eagles have a letdown spot, I get it But I feel like that was that letdown spot against the Jaguars They just got lucky with all the turnovers and they kind of got out there with a win Arizona last seven home games 0 and 7 straight up 0 and 7 against the spread it's something's going on down there they have some reason they're good on the road you fade them at home um I just if the Eagles are getting 98 of the money 90 of the bets I could probably be swayed a little bit in this being like okay I'm walking to a trap here The fact that I'm getting under a touchdown, again, I think Cardinals are a bottom five team in the NFC, and the Eagles are a top two, top three team. I'll take this number every time. The Eagles are just more complete offensively,”
PHI 20, ARI 17 — Eagles beat Cardinals 20-17 (margin 3); Philadelphia -5.5 busts (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“Bengals plus three at the Ravens. look it's a divisional matchup the two best teams in the division in theory till the browns get get full complement of players kind of a pass right like there's no there's no hook there's no there's nothing to play here simon says bet the ravens love this number love it i would take it up to four and a half but you don't even have to because the public's in this keep betting the bangles”
BAL 19, CIN 17 — Ravens beat Bengals 19-17 (margin 2); Baltimore -3 busts (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“Like, what do I feel safer with? Yeah. I'm a good Seahawks. Okay. Just because the group I know that took that, like they're they're legit like they're really legit so that's one of those if they're playing that position and they're playing it big they clearly know something here in this matchup so i'm gonna trust that number I know it's going to be four and a half in the contest.”
SEA 48, DET 45 — Seahawks beat Lions 48-45 (ESPN); Seahawks +4.5 covers, winning outright by 3.
“team, the Atlanta Falcons plus two. you love that starting to fall in love with it that's funny because i'm starting to go the other way just because again it's our guy evan abrams i read these trends he posts out and it's just like shit makes me want to go back and look at my numbers but i've already bet atlanta i'm in on atlanta i just love this team but in this position it's usually not good when there's an underdog in week four that's three you know ats at home historically has not been kind to them so I'm with you. I love it. They're just prevailing numbers that say you're kind of walking into it. The books kind of know what they're doing here. But it feels like it's kind of a split game, right? The public money and the bets, it's kind of been flip-flopping every day. Like some days, the Browns are getting the money. The next day, it's been Atlanta. So I don't know. It's an interesting number. It got down to one. Then it went back up to two. So it's been moving all over. Again, I just wish this was three, Chad. So if this was three, it'd be an autoplay for me. The fact that it's not it gives me pause i believe everything that the wise guys have been saying about the falcons and that their offense is remarkably creative and hard to stop the browns are going to be missing jadavian clowny miles gary miles we don't know yet what's happening but uh even if he plays he's going to be pretty banged up i assume he gets suspended though you saw that the info came out they saying now they like basically these people that their jobs to check the tires and whatever from the accident This is speculation Who knows how true all of this is It just happened yesterday his accident I believe They think he going over 100 miles per hour So if that is true we assume he be suspended right That's reckless driving. So as of now, though, he got released from the hospital. He hasn't practiced yet this week. But if nothing comes about it, yeah, that would be huge, right? If they're down two of their biggest D linemen against a team that loves to run the ball. So I'm with Chad on that one. That could be something that flips me come Sunday. I know this is a land. I am literally, I've already bet it. I am literally betting on the Falcons being the better, having the best unit on the field when it comes to a really creative game plan offensively.”
ATL 23, CLE 20 — Falcons beat Browns 23-20 (ESPN); Falcons +2 covers, winning outright by 3.
“So my first underdog, me and Chad already talked about. We love the Texans. That's a good big number. Get that one in there. Tennessee, I know they're the public dog this week and a lot of pros love the Colts. I'll stay away from that number, I guess, because it's down to three now. You're not getting great value, but I'll take the money line. Tennessee's had the Colts number historically in this position. This one isn't as gross. Me and Chad love it from the get-go. Ravens, got to throw it in there. Seahawks, again, two terrible teams. You're getting a big number against the Lions. We knew we were going to throw that one in. And the last one I was going to do, Tampa. The value might not be there now just because the Lions moved around so much. Let's go Broncos. Broncos playing against an 0-3 team. Short dog. I'll take that money line there. I really like this one this week.”
Moneyline round robin parlay busts (ESPN Week 4 scores): Texans ML lost 24-34 to Chargers; Titans ML won 24-17 over Colts; Ravens ML lost 20-23 to Bills; Seahawks ML won 48-45 over Lions; Broncos ML lost 23-32 to Raiders. Three legs lost so the parlay busts.
“We'll take the money line as well here with the Ravens because historically,”
BUF 23, BAL 20 — Bills beat Ravens 23-20 (ESPN); Ravens moneyline busts.
“Grab that Steelers minus three.”
NYJ 24, PIT 20 — Jets beat Steelers 24-20 (ESPN); Steelers -3 busts, losing outright.
“Tampa Bay and Green Bay. We loved this when it was Tampa Bay minus two. It's down to minus one. Yeah, Mike Evans got suspended. Yeah, but he was out when we talked about it the other day. it he appealed i thought he was gonna win honestly the appeal because again i don't know it didn't seem like that big of thing he didn't throw punches he just kind of took a cheap shot pushing the guy but i didn't i i bet at bucks minus two assuming he'd be out completely comfortable i bet bucks”
GB 14, TB 12 — Packers beat Buccaneers 14-12 (ESPN); Buccaneers -2 busts, losing outright.
“enjoy this moment Chad enjoy it could be it could be it for us all right so I'm putting the Niners in right now the Niners are one and a half point favorites uh against the Denver Broncos um again if someone fills a pillowcase full of bars of syrups and beats the crap out of me to take not take that I won't take it but for right now I just it feels really hard that someone's gonna talk me out taking this 49ers I just think they're getting they hung a shit number and we're getting a good line”
DEN 11, SF 10 — Broncos beat 49ers 11-10 (ESPN); 49ers -1.5 busts, losing outright.
“Simon, give us a round robin here, a Moneyline round robin parlay. All right. Unfortunately, showing two and three last week, Atlanta didn't come through. That was a heartbreaker. This week, I wanted to give out the Colts, but again, our guy, everyone scared me off of it. Apparently, Mahomes doesn't lose in this spot. So we're hoping for the cover. I'm not going to waste your money. Take the L there. So we talked about Miami already. Screw the points. Take the money line. So first one in Miami, second one in New England, third one in Washington fourth one in Jaguars Chad Chad we already talked about we love it the last one I got to do it and again I'll never take them on the spread or anything Arizona I don't know how the Rams are the kind of team that can ever stat like you know have a lead and protect it they just can't run the ball so I have a team in Arizona where I know Kyler American go video game mode I take it three and a half whatever the money line is I throw in the round robin just because this to me is a coin flip game That why that number is so perfect at three and a half There is no real reason to take either side It's truly who the hell knows what you're dealing with in either of these teams. So I love that to cap out around Rob, and it's just a gross finish taking this Cardinals team. All right. Money line, Ron, Rob and Parley, Miami dolphins, new England Patriots, Washington commanders, Jacksonville Jaguars, Arizona Cardinals.”
Moneyline round robin parlay busts (ESPN Week 3 scores): Dolphins ML won 21-19 over Bills; Patriots ML lost 26-37 to Ravens; Commanders ML lost 8-24 to Eagles; Jaguars ML won 38-10 over Chargers; Cardinals ML lost 12-20 to Rams. Two legs lost so the parlay busts.
“just looking at this matchup I think Chad touched on it you have two teams OTS neither of them have covered this season right Carolina's own two just historically in this position you take the underdog and it hits it like a 58 60 percent rate in week three the team that two own teams two own two teams are facing off ATS, you just take the dog in this position. There's another game like that this week. It was at Raiders, Tennessee. So it's kind of one of those where it's like, I already knew I was going to like Carolina. They're going to be a home divisional dog at plus three. The fact that there's going to be trends back in it and James has this major injury, it's a big deal, but I cannot let us, and I will not let us do it to the fans and putting this in our contest again, because I just got so much hate about it. I'm with them. It's like, I, that was so unenjoyable because I just had so I like felt good didn't you feel good with that Carolina game it's like yeah so good yeah it was feeling even during the game I was like no like Baker's having these moments Daniel Jones is falling apart and it's like no like as much as we want to bag on the the Giants Daniel Jones is making the play and the head coach is making the right call so it's like yeah Carolina auto play for me and Chad but no chance let's be one of my five there's other games i like way more than this we 100 felt great honestly we felt great”
CAR 22, NO 14 — Panthers beat Saints 22-14 (ESPN); Panthers +3 covers, winning outright by 8.
“Buccaneers, minus two and a half. Loved it.”
GB 14, TB 12 — Packers beat Buccaneers 14-12 (ESPN); Buccaneers -2.5 busts, losing outright.
“Falcons on the road, two point underdogs against the Seattle Seahawks. What the hell am I going to do here, Chad? You already know we want to bet Atlanta, a great running team against a bad run defense in Seattle with Geno Smith quarterback that could not do a single thing, but we're buying high in Atlanta right now. Yeah. Yeah. So I don't know what to do with this one. Like I really wanted to grab it. It was, I think three interesting. It's back up. That means some pro money must came in on the Seahawks. Cause to me, I don't see any public betting Seahawks. It's going to be probably a pros versus Joe's game. I see the pros probably back in the Seahawks at home and the public taking Atlanta. I'm, I'm torn here. Cause I like Atlanta. I just love their offense. I love their run scheme. And I think they have more playmakers on defense than the Seahawks team does. So this is the rare time I'll be with the public, but I can't be talked out of it. I'll be on Atlanta in this game.”
ATL 27, SEA 23 — Falcons beat Seahawks 27-23 (ESPN); Falcons +2 covers, winning outright by 4.
“Eagles, minus one and a half.”
PHI 24, MIN 7 — Eagles beat Vikings 24-7; Eagles covered the -1.5 spread by winning outright (ESPN scoreboard).
“Ravens, minus three and a half.”
MIA 42, BAL 38 — Dolphins beat Ravens 42-38; Ravens lost outright, busting the -3.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“Jets plus six and a half.”
NYJ 31, CLE 30 — Jets beat Browns 31-30; Jets covered the +6.5 spread by winning outright (ESPN scoreboard).
“These are our five picks. I've just laid them out to review for everybody. Simon says 49ers minus nine and a half. We chose that on Tuesday. Still like it. Both of us like it.”
SF 27, SEA 7 — 49ers beat Seahawks 27-7; 49ers covered the -9.5 spread with a 20-point margin (ESPN scoreboard).
“put it in the contest game was over four minutes in there on the road at the Raiders, Raiders five and a half Raiders look better than we planned, or I shouldn't say better than we planned. I thought that game was closer than even five points. And so Raiders minus five and a half against the Cardinals team that I think is terrible. Yeah, I know it's so chalky, but I'm I bet it. I bet them. I think it was opened at three and a half. I got it when I was at four I thought about it again four and a half I was like you know I wait I bet you it goes back to four And then it went right up to five and a half So clearly a group took a position on that I have no doubt I find out who in the next 24 hours”
ARI 29, LV 23 — Cardinals beat Raiders 29-23 in OT; Raiders lost outright, busting the -5.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“Falcons on the road at the Rams. Two teams desperate for a win. Falcons plus ten and a half. I mean, the money's coming in on the Falcons. I guess you take the Falcons. You kind of hold your nose, but I'm not dying to. Yeah. It's not a contest play. no I bet it though it's like I like this Falcons team me and Chad like them coming in did I know”
LAR 31, ATL 27 — Rams beat Falcons 31-27; Falcons lost by 4, covering the +10.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“I all in on it I put my flag on it I going to look like a jackass if it doesn hit So I might as well lean into it Plus seven and a half Houston at Fandle Give it to me on Scrooge Trillette Wow I am going to go on my I hating it as I say it Atlanta plus five and a half”
IND 20, HOU 20 — Colts and Texans tied 20-20 in OT; Texans covered the +7.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“Win this game bro Win this game All right I putting Steelers plus six and a half in the locked column”
PIT 23, CIN 20 — Steelers beat Bengals 23-20 in OT; Steelers covered the +6.5 spread by winning outright (ESPN scoreboard).
“are you ready are you ready seattle seahawks plus six and a half on monday night football”
SEA 17, DEN 16 — Seahawks beat Broncos 17-16; Seahawks covered the +6.5 spread by winning outright (ESPN scoreboard).
“Let's just use the Ravens.”
BAL 24, NYJ 9 — Ravens beat Jets 24-9; Ravens won outright on the moneyline (ESPN scoreboard).
“Before we get to Scooch Roulette, which is our head-to-head, I will let you choose first. Let's do our Moneyline Underdog Round Robin. Parley. So, Chad, for my favorite Round Robin, our gross Underdog Round Robin that people hated on, but it cashed nine out of 18 weeks. Maybe we skipped week one, but I know it went nine and seven or nine and eight. Let's start off right away. Steelers plus 220 on the road against Cincy. Love it. Divisional dog on the road against a team that lost the Super Bowl. We take this every time. Somebody got to be all in for everybody to be all in. Texans plus 300 against a Colts team that historically is terrible on opening week. Again, we talked about it. They lost to a one in 15 Jags, the only one of the season for the Jaguars. Hold your nose. Throw them in this round, Robin. Crazy max value. Next up, the Atlanta Falcons. Chad knows we talked about. We just love these divisional home dogs. And this is a great spot for Atlanta team playing, again, against a rookie head coach on the road with Jameis Winston, who loves to throw picks. Give it to me every time. I love this number so much. This is going to be in a lot of my, like, you know, if I'm doing multiple round robins, I'll probably have Atlanta and a decent amount of them, including the Texans as well. Next up, the Lions. How can we forget about the Lions, right? Plus 165 right now, plus 160, depending on what number you can get. Everyone's going to be on it. It's a trendy dog. I don't care. I love the Lions to pull the upset off, shock the world, start the season with a win If they going I don even know what was 0 last year to start the year Do it Lions This is it So for the last one Chad who do you think we should fill in for our fifth spot Let's do the Jags against the Commanders. Plus 120 on the action app. Yeah, plus 120. You know, it's a little bit riskier than betting the Vikings, but we're both big fan of the Jags. We like them as a long shot to win the AFC South. We're both invested heavily in Trevor Lawrence props for the year. Let's add the Jags. Our five for the round robin will be the Steelers, the Falcons, the Texans, the Lions, and the Jags. That is for the Moneyline Underdog Round Robin Parlay.”
Round robin legs re-verified: Steelers ML won (PIT 23, CIN 20 OT); Falcons ML lost (NO 27, ATL 26); Texans ML pushed (tie IND 20, HOU 20 OT); Lions ML lost (PHI 38, DET 35); Jaguars ML lost (WAS 28, JAX 22) (ESPN scoreboard).
“was the Rams plus two and a half. Classic overvalued team in a Bills team that's the”
BUF 31, LAR 10 — Bills beat Rams 31-10; Rams lost by 21, busting the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Right now, they're 16 to one to win the Super Bowl. But I also love the Bears as a hometown Chicago fan. The Bears are plus seven in this spot. If not for my anti-Bears bias as a fan, this would be an automatic play to me. And the way the percentages are shaping up, 71% of the bets on the Niners, 68% of the money on the Bears. So the wise guys see it that way too. Yeah, I bet this game like a damn coward. It's one of the few games I bet like a coward. Took 49ers first half, took Bears for the game.”
CHI 19, SF 10 — Bears beat 49ers 19-10; Bears covered the +7 spread by winning outright (ESPN scoreboard).
“it's a good spot Buccaneers two and a half point favorites on the road at Dallas Sunday night Tom Brady's back the Cowboys are back the Cowboys they're home dogs I mean the Cowboys are the side yeah it sucks like I hate betting a team like this that just had so much negativity heading into the season but lucky for us Tampa's had the same exact thing they just had a lot of drama in this camp. Dak, I just saw a crazy stat. Career completion percentage against Tampa Bay, 80%. For some reason, he plays incredibly well against them. Last year, the all-hyped team of Tampa, they only beat them by two in week one. We're exactly where we were last year, right? Except we're at home with this team getting two and a half. It's gross. We got to do it. This is the foxhole. I mean, there's just no doubt about it. No one's going to be betting this game Sunday night taking Dallas.”
TB 19, DAL 3 — Buccaneers beat Cowboys 19-3; Cowboys lost by 16, busting the +2.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“all the time and i gotta build strategies i gotta hire people and i gotta fight battles and put out fires but i also find time to do my research and you've really had me come around on the jags wow well start with the jags we just lost all half our listeners just stopped listening yeah i know right but i look at the afc south and you know how what i think of the south divisions in football yeah irrelevant don't matter nope teams no one cares no one cares doesn't leave their very small provincial region but the jazz are interesting and to me it comes down to two things. The Doug Peterson, Frank Reich mythology. And I want to lay it out for you. Doug Peterson wins a Super Bowl with the Eagles. He creates an offense that is ahead of the curve in terms of thinking analytically, going for it, wins a Super Bowl with a backup quarterback in Nick Foles. Frank Reich was the quarterback coach. He leaves, goes to Indy, has had some success. I think more credit than he deserves, given he hasn't won the division and has tended to have his teams lose important games when it matters the most. He banked on Carson Wentz last year. Everyone believed he was a genius who could turn him around. I think the genius is Peterson. And I think he's got a generational talent in Trevor Lawrence. And I think this division is ripe for the taking Jags plus 800 to win the division.”
The Jaguars won the AFC South in 2022, finishing 9-8 and clinching the division with a Week 18 win over Tennessee. (JAX 9-8)
“The fact that I'm getting plus 425, plus 450 at certain books, I'm going to take that on Miami to win this division.”
The Dolphins finished 9-8 and 2nd in the AFC East in 2022; the Buffalo Bills won the division. (MIA 9-8)
“Ravens, Super Bowl, still a 20 to one.”
Kansas City 38, Philadelphia 35 — The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII on Feb 12, 2023; the Ravens did not reach or win the Super Bowl.
“And again, we talked about Pittsburgh, which is my other favorite bet for this division at 9-1 or 10-1 to win this division. But just strictly Super Bowl bet, the two biggest ones I've done for highest odds are the Ravens and the Chiefs. Like those are the two teams I bet that Chiefs are 10 to one Ravens 20 to one.”
Kansas City 38, Philadelphia 35 — The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII on Feb 12, 2023 to win the Super Bowl.
“And again, we talked about Pittsburgh, which is my other favorite bet for this division at 9-1 or 10-1 to win this division.”
The Steelers finished 9-8 and 3rd in the AFC North in 2022, narrowly missing the playoffs; the Bengals won the division at 12-4. (PIT 9-8)
“The Bears are a dreadful team.”
The Bears finished the 2022 season 3-14, a franchise record for losses, well under the 5.5-win total. (CHI 3-14)
“And the Jets, under five and a half wins, plus 125.”
The Jets finished the 2022 season 7-10, over the 5.5-win total. (NYJ 7-10)
“but it's actually the Vikings under and the Vikings that missed the playoffs. I think you're getting really good value. They're one of the most hyped up teams heading into the season based off them getting a new head coach, which I agree, the guy can't be worse than Zimmer. He still has Kirk Cousins. He's still going to need Kirk Cousins to make big plays, not just put up junk time yards and touchdowns. So fading Kirk when the public is all over Kirk. And that's what they are this year. They're everyone's darling. I still think Green Bay is far and above the best team in this division. So if we're looking at a divisional bet, Green Bay, they're probably the best value now at minus 150. But my favorite bet is Vikings not to make a playoffs. I believe it's up to plus 175, plus 160, because they've just been getting bet up. So you like the Vikes not to make the playoffs better than the Vikes under the season win total? Yeah, just because you're getting a better plus number.”
The Vikings finished 13-4, won the NFC North, and made the playoffs (lost the Wild Card to the Giants); the bet on them to miss the playoffs lost. (MIN 13-4)
“We had a lot of similarities though Yeah I mean we literally the lockstep on the Cowboys and the Rams Yep Interesting that you think the books though they not going to make it You just think Brady got too much going on I think their offensive line is a mess and the best way to pressure Brady is up the middle. I think with a new coach, I think for whatever reason, and this is, you know, what the fuck do I know? I'm literally going to put 10 K on them after we get off their show to make the playoffs. I love you, Chad. He feels disengaged to me.”
The Buccaneers finished 8-9, won the NFC South, and made the playoffs (lost the Wild Card 31-14 to Dallas), so the bet on them to make the playoffs won. (TB 8-9)
“So talking about my favorite games for the earliest slate. My number one first game I saw when all the schedules came out was the Oregon-Georgia game. And I knew right away I was going to be on Oregon because Georgia won the national title. They'd be overvalued. Everyone would be all over them. And then I went and looked on the action page on the app. It's a public dog, Oregon. All the money, all the tickets is coming in on Oregon. And the pros have actually been coming on the other side and taking Georgia. So very interesting to see that the public loves Oregon. The number to me is too big, right? Anyone would take that week. I mean, it's week one. These teams aren't what they were last year. We know Oregon gets the recruits, right? They have the speed to keep up with SEC team will be the interesting part. But 17 and a half is such a key number to me. I would love to hear what your view is on the number stock. What do you think when you see a 17 and a half? plus two ranked teams first week. Don't we always just take that dog there?”
Georgia 49, Oregon 3 — Georgia routed Oregon 49-3 on Sept 3, 2022 at the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game; Oregon lost outright, busting the +17.5 cover (ESPN box score).
“So to me if you just looking at pure value based that what I like with this division I like this crazy long shot Atlanta team that I trust their head coach I trust the offense that they have there And I do think their defense has been much improved from last year So to me I get it Atlanta, everyone's all about them tanking for the season, which does make sense. It's a great QB class coming up. I just don't think they're that as bad as everyone's left them to be. Like, they're just not 28 to one to win this division bad. Like they're, they're just, that's just too, too extreme for this, for me. So yeah, Atlanta, again, And not telling people to put their house on it. This is one of my bigger bets for this division. I think that's the best value right now, 28 to 1.”
Buccaneers won the NFC South (8-9); Falcons finished 7-10 and did not win the division, so the +2800 futures lost (ESPN standings). (Falcons: 7-10)
“talk about now they have a professional in the building and Doug Peterson I love I love this team so much in the sense that no one was talking about them months ago so we were able to get them plus 900, 10 to one to win this division at one point. Now FanDuel has them down to seven to one, eight to one. Shop around for that number. Love the Jags. Love they're over. Having eight wins for the season. Again, when I talk about taking them for the division, me and Chad are talking about it's all about putting yourself in position to hedge.”
Jaguars finished 9-8 and won the AFC South in 2022, cashing the +900 division futures (ESPN standings). (Jaguars: 9-8)
“Like this should be closer to the Eagles than it is. just a simple fact that Dallas won last year. It's the Cowboys. They've just been bet up to this point. What are they? Plus 135, plus 130. So yeah, yeah. I just, I just don't think it's a smart bet to take Dallas. I do like they're under, they feel like a 10 and seven, nine and eight kind of team this year, where we just expect them to take a step back last year. If people don't remember, go back and watch Dak through their first eight games out of this world. Talent wise, like this kid could not miss simple fact. You just talked about it. You have Gallup. He had CD lamb. He had Amari Cooper as his three receivers. It's just going to be different this year. So I do like the Cowboys. I just don't like them at this price. I would not bet any of their over bets. So for me, 10 and a half, that's a good bet, betting they're under.”
Cowboys finished the 2022 regular season 12-5, exceeding the under 10.5 wins total (ESPN standings). (Cowboys: 12-5)
“I took them at plus 200. That's the only reason I would tell people not to bet them divisionally right now. They're at plus 170. Me and Chad, we're going to talk about week one. We like the Lions. That's what you're looking for, right, at this point. You're looking for if the Eagles could drop week one to the Lions, bam, you get huge value on betting them divisionally. You get huge value on Hurts MVP. That's when you want to take the Eagles. You don't want to bet them now, middle of the summer, just because the fans have bet it up, right? It's all the way down to plus 170 now. You've already missed the value. I'd hold off on that. If you still like the over, I'd take it. It's at 9.5. It's still a good number. But again, you missed the value. It was at 9 at one point. So, to me, I like the over.”
Eagles finished the 2022 regular season 14-3, clearing the over 9.5 wins total (ESPN standings). (Eagles: 14-3)
“Give me lines plus four. Give me lines on the money line. Washington. What is their nickname now? Washington Commanders. So lame. So lame. Plus 500 to win the division. Win total eight and a half. I don't know. Like they're getting healthier on the defense, which I think is why people were so excited about him last year. i'm so out on carson wentz uh i love ron rivera they've already fired their defensive uh their linebacker cut was it their defensive coordinator their defensive line coach sam mills defensive line coach sam mills the third which is weird because i saw him two days earlier at his dad's hall of fame thing in canton ohio yeah i'm curious what happened there and so i don't know simon there's no way we look at the commanders as a long shot to win the division what do you think their total. No. And even all the other pros I've talked to, like met up with a bunch of guys this past weekend and they see they making all their bets We talking about futures I mean a bunch of assholes out there betting the giants no one been washington right it just funny where every year guys will talk up washington usually like i was one of those guys last year it like a great defense made a playoffs without a quarterback last year like they should be better with fitzpatrick he went down week one and we saw what played out they just weren't that good of a team again i i want to believe in carson but it's all mental at this point with him like i watched that preseason game he just had a couple passes where it's like the kid doesn't get his feet set it's just he does all these he does all these things that he regressed and all these different aspects of being a quarterback position so I'm down on them I bet they're under I didn't bet big on it right it's not one of my bigger bets I had bet they're under”
Commanders finished the 2022 regular season 8-8-1 (8 wins), staying under the 8.5 wins total (ESPN standings). (Commanders: 8-8-1)
“I'm on there under uh seven and a half wins I'll take it all the way down to minus 135 minus [36:32] 140”
Giants finished the 2022 regular season 9-7-1 (9 wins), exceeding the under 7.5 wins total (ESPN standings). (Giants: 9-7-1)
“Miami plus 450 to win the AFC East, New England plus 500, Jets plus 2400 to win the AFC East, and their win total is five and a half. I like the over on that. So does the public. There's something to be said for a team that's closed the gap. They're entering the next year in a coaching regime and an organization that seems – now, of course, they just had the Mbukai-Becton news is bad. I love what they did in the draft. Of course, you can't bank on rookies too much, but they were able to get the best player at various positions on the board heading into the draft with the way, you know, the pass rusher and the cornerback. receiver. And again, that's not to say that they have it all figured out, but, and that's where, when you take a look at what teams have done, it doesn't happen in a vacuum. Of course, just because one team has improved, you say, well, they figured it out. Well, other teams are improving too. They're shifting that the jets are going to be more competitive this year. Obviously you can steal a game and in a 17 game season, I like the over, I should say at five and a half. One of the most bet overs for the year, according to sports books, the New York Jets, based almost entirely on fan response and enthusiasm to their draft. And it's my biggest it's right now my biggest under bet. So me and Tim are completely opposite sides. I just them in the Bears are my two biggest fade teams this upcoming season. Zach Wilson has shown me nothing. He got outplayed by his backup who ended up beating the Bengals in a throwaway game. So Zach Wilson, if he can take the next step, if I can see this could read a defense and I look like a deer in headlights. He was undersized. I be about it But right now the Jets to me an inflated line Like they bet up You want to talk about respect given to the Patriots This line a game more than it should be just because of New York sportsbooks Like, this line is just getting pounded, but to the over, because the Jets fans are so excited about this team. Where me, as a professional, I need to take that value. So, I had them at four wins for the season. I'm getting a free game and a half towards the over. I love the under.”
Jets finished the 2022 regular season 7-10, exceeding the under 5.5 wins total (ESPN standings). (Jets: 7-10)
“All right. So we're going to get to the Browns. Obviously, we got to talk about the Browns and Deshaun Watson. But the Steelers are really interesting. They are plus 330 to make the playoffs, plus 950 to win the AFC North. Their win total is seven and a half. 70 to one win the Super Bowl. That is their longest odds since the 1976 merger. And they are at their lowest win total since 2004 when they went 15 and one behind a rookie quarterback. back. Under Mike Tomlin and Bill Cowher, since 1992, when their win total is listed under eight, 1992, they were at six and a half. They went 11 and five. 2000, they were at six and a half, went nine and seven. 2001, they were at seven and a half, went 13 and three. 2004, seven and a half, one 15 and one guys who's gonna bet against a rah-rah mike tomlin spot i realize if you have special outcomes that you got to be comfortable being uncomfortable i've just trained myself over the years to resist comfort and so appreciate my resume is seeking comfort yeah can't do it i definitely this is one of the pro bets like only pros are betting this number i bet in the over for this Pittsburgh team.”
Steelers finished the 2022 regular season 9-8, clearing the over 7.5 wins total (ESPN standings). (Steelers: 9-8)
“half wins, plus 125 is the price on the over. I think we can all agree this is a team that's got a long way to go. Yep. I mean, I like a betting adjusted lines where teams I think they're going to suck. I bet they're under five, bet another under a four and a half, bet them to have worse record. It's nothing against Justin Fields or this team. It's more about, I think the last regime”
Bears finished the 2022 regular season 3-14, staying under the 5-win total (ESPN standings). (Bears: 3-14)
“I mean, honestly, for me, I bet the Lightning before the series started because of what Lee Buffs talked about. I thought the Avs would come out sloppy, and it's kind of heartbreaking where they were literally one bounce away from taking that game. I mean, that third period, how many chances did Tampa Bay have to get that goal? And it was just, I mean, that was really tough. Especially, to me, that would be a big deal. You're just talking about the Avs are a young team. Like, if Tampa would have gone up 1-0, I honestly think that would have been a huge deal in this series But for me some of that back Tampa before that puck even dropped last night I not worried at all If you bet on Tampa to win this series they were just down two out of the Rangers And if you believed in them at that time, which I did, you're just not worried at this point with the Avs.”
Colorado won the 2022 Stanley Cup Final 4 games to 2 over Tampa Bay, so Tampa Bay to win the series lost.
“Yeah, but I did like I did like Matt brought it up that I bought more shares of Steph for MVP.”
Stephen Curry won 2022 NBA Finals MVP (Wikipedia/NBA Finals results).
“but I did bet them, again, a minus one and a half to win this series”
Warriors won the 2022 NBA Finals series 4-2, a 2-game margin that covers Warriors -1.5 series (Wikipedia series results).
“I just Matt Moore respect man you got balls taking balls in the series because I'm with these two I just it feels like free money minus 160 I've hit well over 50 books now at that number for a grand each and I probably bet another 10 books today for another grand it's like rare opportunity a rare opportunity to bet on a Warriors team that yeah a guy might pull out his”
The Warriors won the 2022 NBA Finals over the Celtics 4-2 (Wikipedia series results).
“I'm going to drink the juice and just, you know, take that minus. It might be up to minus one 70 now at certain books, but it's worth it. It's like we talk all the time, Chad, it's a little nerve wracking with these spreads when it comes down to these foul shots into the game. And the greatest example is last week with that Jimmy Jimmy Butler I mean he literally hit the front rim with that that three So it like a lot of times that spread comes down to that When I have a lot of money I don want to be worried about that So, yeah, for me, I did Golden State, but I did the money line.”
108-120 — Celtics beat the Warriors 120-108 in Game 1 of the 2022 NBA Finals on June 2, 2022; the Warriors moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“Warriors in five. Who said that a couple of weeks ago? Was it Chad Millman, wise guy who moves lines, who can see what's happening on the court, who understands recency bias? And when two NBA experts are saying to him, hey, this is why Dallas can do well in this series, I'm saying that's great. Warriors in five. Chad Millman is proud of himself. God, I hope you're right because I have a lot of money riding on it. Do you? Would you get a plus 500, something like that? or like plus 352. I bet it after game one. I was just like, I think Chad might be onto something or Dallas just looked way out of their element. And then once it was up three Oh, I got a little”
120-110 — Warriors beat the Mavericks 4-1 in the 2022 Western Conference Finals, clinching with a 120-110 Game 5 win on May 26, 2022 (ESPN); Warriors-in-5 cashed.
“So the first bets I made right when it came out was the Texans, a plus seven and a half, hit it again at plus eight.”
20-20 — Texans and Colts tied 20-20 in OT in Week 1 2022; Texans +7.5 easily covered a 0-point margin (ESPN box score).
“was gonna be one that was gonna be my next one i mean lions they're actually up to four and a half [12:11] now in fan duel um it's it's hard not to want to take this line right now and i did take it but i”
38-35 — Eagles beat the Lions 38-35 in Week 1 2022; Lions +4.5 covered, losing by just 3 (ESPN box score).
“key number of five and a half being under that six I'm grabbing it right now this Ravens number”
24-9 — Ravens beat the Jets 24-9 in Week 1 2022; Baltimore -5.5 covered comfortably (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Falcons plus three and a half against the Saints. I don't fear Jameis. I don't fear Marcus Mariota. I like this team to cover by a field goal in a close game between two not very good teams in Atlanta. Go walk me back. Tell me I'm wrong, but I know you love it. I gave you gross. I gave you grosser than gross. I gave you professional grossness. You know, people know I love doing round robins. This is one of the teams Atlanta's round robin. I threw in their money line. um gross disgusting might be the only game atlanta wins the entire season but chat just touched on what a beautiful beautiful spot for this atlanta team uh hosting a divisional rival at home no one knows what the hell offense atlanta is gonna be running they got mariota mariota so to me atlanta is a team that's gonna be terrible but early on they're gonna be able sneak up on teams just like last year denver terrible team started three you know carolina terrible team started three you know it's because they're running different offenses teams weren't prepared for their type of offensive style. So I love that pick, Chad, three and a half, two. That's such a key number. I take the number as well, but this is a money line bet for me as well. Cause Atlanta, this game stinks. Like no one's gonna be betting their money line. Everyone's gonna be coming in on, like you just said, the fun, exciting James Winston Saints team. So if you want to hold out and not bet it, I get it, but I honestly would take three and a half right now.”
27-26 — Saints beat the Falcons 27-26 in Week 1 2022; Atlanta +3.5 covered, losing by just 1 (ESPN box score).
“I don't want you getting angry at me. But if you give me a team whose quarterback is coming off an injury with a new coach going on the road as more than a field goal favorite against a division rival I am going to take the home dog division rival in this spot We are an Atlanta Falcons podcast. Give me the Falcons plus three and a half against the Saints. I don't fear Jameis. I don't fear Marcus Mariota. I like this team to cover by a field goal in a close game between two not very good teams in Atlanta. Go walk me back. Tell me I'm wrong, but I know you love it. I gave you gross. I gave you grosser than gross. I gave you professional grossness. You know, people know I love doing round robins. This is one of the teams Atlanta's round robin. I threw in their money line. um gross disgusting might be the only game atlanta wins the entire season but chat just touched on what a beautiful beautiful spot for this atlanta team uh hosting a divisional rival at home no one knows what the hell offense atlanta is gonna be running they got mariota mariota so to me atlanta is a team that's gonna be terrible but early on they're gonna be able sneak up on teams just like last year denver terrible team started three you know carolina terrible team started three you know it's because they're running different offenses teams weren't prepared for their type of offensive style. So I love that pick, Chad, three and a half, two. That's such a key number. I take the number as well, but this is a money line bet for me as well. Cause Atlanta, this game stinks. Like no one's gonna be betting their money line. Everyone's gonna be coming in on, like you just said, the fun, exciting James Winston Saints team. So if you want to hold out and not bet it, I get it, but I honestly would take three and a half right now. Cause that is such a key number.”
27-26 — Saints beat the Falcons 27-26 in Week 1 2022; Atlanta lost outright, so the Falcons moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“You said Detroit is being one of the most bet on over teams because that was my next favorite bet I loved Detroit at five and a half I love them at six I love them at six and a half over Seven that would give me pause But if you could still get six and a half I would take that number right now if you so inclined just because their schedule lines up very nice. The Vikings have an entire new team. They're switching their defensive style. The Zimmer's gone. They have a new offensive coordinator. They have a new DC. We've seen what's going to happen with the Bears. The Bears are kind of in this fluctuation of rebuild. We don't really know what they're going to be because they, of course, have a new coaching staff as well. The Lions still have the same coaching staff, the same OC, the same DC. It's just all there for this Lions team to really take a step up. So as long as you're getting under seven still, I love this number for this Lions team. It's even more so now the schedule is out. It's just all shaping up to”
The Lions finished the 2022 regular season 9-8, clearing the over 6.5 wins total (ESPN team schedule/results).
“AFC South. Indianapolis Colts. Minus 105. Tennessee Titans, plus 145. Jaguars, plus 700. Texans, plus 2600. Obviously, the big news here. Matt Ryan, now the Colts quarterback. A.J. Brown, not on the Titans. Malik Willis, drafted by the Titans, will not get mentored by Ryan Tannehill. Also Malik Willis and all the other quarterbacks. Desmond Ritter fading, dropping deep, deep, deep into the draft. That was a great narrative the night of the draft. Not just because, hey, none were taken in the top 10, as I said, but it just seemed like every single GM put their thinking cap on and said, I'm not overreaching just because they're playing quarterback. Yeah. And again, shout out to Matt Freeman who gave us that amazing stat about If no quarterback goes in the top five historically in NFL history if no quarterback goes top five the under of two and a half quarterback is hit every time So something to keep in mind in the future if people are mocking quarterbacks outside of top five it pretty good bet to bet the under quarterbacks That's something I remember because that hurt me. That definitely hurt me. And we think we talked about next year, it's just a really good quarterback class. I do think that's the biggest difference. I saw some books open at six and a half over under first round quarterbacks. Obviously the out there got pounded and it dropped all the way down to five and a half and they just took the they just took the number down but you know it's like you just said teams called the bluffs they're just like go ahead take this guy like we're fine with either weight next year or we think there's enough good quarterbacks in the free agent group like again go look at the seahawks qb room and go look at the atlanta falcons qb room and tell me these teams aren't tanking like they're tanking it there is no excuse for them not to go out there get jimmy g or get baker but clearly they made a stance where they don't want to do it so look at this division chad i like jacksonville coming into it and i just thought they had the most room to grow i think they've gone now from 14 to 1 or 12 to 1 now they're down to 701 for this division so the value is gone there now the value shifted to the texans it's like it's gross go back and watch the film on davis mills go back and look at davis mills comes out this year he's the number one player taken overall you really think so 100 you kidding me are you kidding me i i would say if they could see what he did last year in the nfl 100 yes he would easily be the number one pick overall just because his upside again on tape if you put it on there this kid makes really really high level throws when he had guys all around his legs so i just look at the texans as a it's another thing where it's like should they be 16 to 1 should they be 15 to 1 for this division Yeah, that's a fair number. They're sitting at 25 to 1, 26 to 1 for this division. It's like people are kind of figuring out what we're doing here. We're betting teams that aren't talked about. They're considered a joke. Like that's what the Texans kind of are considered right now. So am I telling you to go bet a lot of money on the Texans to win this division? No, but like if you had a couple of 10 bucks, you know, 20 bucks laying around, you just want to throw it on a good long shot to win a division. I don't hate that. The Texans, they're just a very solid team. off the route. We saw last year, man, did I sweat that under a bet of them? Like they literally got the four wins and I was sweating that one. So they're just one of these teams I think they going to be better than people think I do see Tennessee taking a step back and the Colts with Matt Ryan I do like the move I do think Matt Ryan is an upgrade over Carson Wentz But he's not that much bigger of an upgrade. If you go back and look at Wentz's numbers last year, they actually weren't that terrible. He just, again, choked in these big moments. But Matt Ryan's not known for doing that. Right. So it is weird. where all people were like, oh my God, Matt Ryan's the Colts. Like that's, that's a game changer. They might be a top four, top three team in the AFC. It's, I still don't really look like at them in that way with Matt Ryan. It doesn't really move the needle for me. So if I'm just going to appear value-based, I'll either be on the Jags or Houston at this point. And you know where I stand, I've already bet the Jags. I'll probably hop off this call and throw a little, throw a little bit on the Texas just because that's crazy. They're this high of a number. I just like looking at my spreadsheet right now i had them at 15 to 1 so the fact that they're dropped that far at this point it just shows that people just aren't buying it they're just looking at them as a very bland boring team that's going to tank for a quarterback a little couple three shekels that's just what you're gonna do yeah not not even one unit like literally maybe half a unit maybe less half a little unit just a little tiny unit you don't have anything to say about the titans uh”
Jaguars 9-8 — The Jacksonville Jaguars finished 9-8 and won the 2022 AFC South, clinching with a Week 18 win over Tennessee, so the futures bet on Jacksonville won (ESPN team schedule/results).
“Raiders, plus 700. Josh McDaniels, Derek Carr, signed Derek Carr to a massive $140 million guaranteed deal. Yeah. I mean. I mean, that's the one. Yeah. We love. This is by far the best value. I think of all the divisions right now, this might be my favorite value bet. But this team is, again, Gruden did definitely – Gruden and Maydock in these NFL drafts, they did screw this Raiders team. Okay, they have holes on this defense. But, oh, my God, this offense. Like, if they can figure it out with Adams, Renfro, and Waller, unbelievable. Like, this – it's literally – again, we can go through all the league. There's just so much talent everywhere. It's got to be one of the top five receiving cores. And Derek Carr, we've seen him have those moments. Like he can make throws that only a handful of guys can make. So I hate it because I hate betting money on Derek Carr because he just always burns me. I always like, okay. Because again, he had that MVP year. Shit, man. It might be like six years ago with Amari Cooper and Khalil Mack on his team. He has that in him. He just has not been able to put it together And last year they were putting together They just had so much last year and they still somehow made the playoffs And again they were a fourth down away completion in the end zone from beating the Bengals on the road So it's ugly. It's gross. But these are the bets you need to make. And this to me is a smart bet taking the Raiders where this number should be closer to plus 400. Just because, again, I think the Chargers and Chiefs are better than them. But it's bumped way down just because people are so much higher on Denver than we are. So I love taking that value on the Raiders right now. All right. We love the Raiders plus 700 in the AFC West.”
Chiefs 14-3, Raiders 6-11 — The Kansas City Chiefs finished 14-3 and won the 2022 AFC West; the Las Vegas Raiders finished 6-11 and did not win the division, so the futures bet lost (ESPN team schedule/results).
“I already bet them at 150 to one to win the Super Bowl.”
38-35 — Kansas City Chiefs beat the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII on Feb 12, 2023; the Lions did not appear, so the 150-1 futures ticket lost (ESPN box score).
“All right, let's talk about the NFC North. Because the Packers, you know, they gave Aaron Rodgers a lot of help. Not really. The Vikings. The Packers are minus 180. The Vikings are plus 300. The Bears, plus 950. The Lions, plus 950. lions aiden hutchinson you had aiden hutchinson to go number one yeah how did it fare for you overall because obviously that was going to be a pretty significant loss well luckily he woke up in the same that's what i talked about like if you wake up and the odds are still minus 400 for walker that meant walker was probably the first pick overall so it didn't get burned too much but i mean it was pretty boring luckily kyle hamilton dropped which like i needed him not to be in the top 10 again love the kid it's just you look at a draft board safety isn't valued as is other positions um with the money so yeah i we talked last year coming into the year chad that we're gonna be one of the few people that love the lions all year because the lions are so bad and i knew coming to this year i was gonna love the lines no matter what just because i loved what they're building there which is they're building a d line they're building no line like to me you build that and you can build the rest out it's like the most important part of a football team in my opinion so everything they've done I mean dude I might have looked before the draft I think they're plus a thousand two hundred on FanDuel so they've moved a lot of money's come in because people like what they did the draft I love what they did the draft but I already love them coming into this the draft it's if you're gonna listen to this show for the next three years I'm gonna tell you to bet them to win the division and win the Super Bowl every year like I already bet them at 150 to one to win the Super Bowl. I bet them at 12 to one to win this division. I'll bet this again at nine to one to win the division. I love everything about the Detroit team Yeah I not a huge fan of Jared Goff but last year their offense schemed around his weaknesses They like really they kept things underneath They didn't put him in a position to throw turnover and make intercepts. So if they can get a cornerback or find someone to play corner for them, this is a really good team. Like their defense is really good. Their offense is actually stacked. So it's not surprising to see their number of moves. I can tell you by the time we're closer to the season, everyone's gonna be talking about the Lions. They're just a really fun team. And gamblers like us, they won money last year. So to me, I would still grab that number at 9-1. I love the Lions this year.”
Vikings 13-4, Lions 9-8 — The Minnesota Vikings finished 13-4 and won the 2022 NFC North; the Detroit Lions finished 9-8 and did not win the division, so the futures bet lost (ESPN team schedule/results).
“NFC West. Home of the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams plus 140 to win the division. The 49ers plus 185. The Cardinals plus 310. The Seahawks plus 1000. I mean, look, the Cardinals super interesting with Kyler Murray. They traded for Hollywood Brown. They must have known that the suspension for DeAndre Hopkins was coming. You don't know what you're going to get. You're losing him for six for the first six games of the year. You got Cliff Kingsbury, who usually, you know, forgets how to coach come November. The 49ers have some serious quarterback confusion and a wide receiver running back in Debo Samuel, who only wants to be a wide receiver and doesn't want to do it in San Francisco. and then you got the Rams that are a team of all-stars coming off a Super Bowl win and they got better you could arguably say they got better this offseason honestly so yep Rams one of those teams I'll throw them in with the Bills I'll throw them in there with the Bucks a couple parlays with them they're another one of these teams but best value by far Cardinals Cardinals they they choked this division away they had this division last year and they blew it the last two weeks of the season or three weeks so it's like everything you just said they're so true about this Cardinals team, they're the best value by far in this division. If you're looking for a purely value-based bet, and I bet money on them just for this division just because of it, they're closer to plus 200.”
49ers 13-4, Cardinals 4-13 — The San Francisco 49ers finished 13-4 and won the 2022 NFC West; the Arizona Cardinals finished 4-13 and did not win the division, so the futures bet lost (ESPN team schedule/results).
“number two. And I know that I saw you put in an action network app tracking your picks. You put in another Aidan Hutchinson plus money pick to go number one. What's your thinking? What's your logic on that particularly? And then I have a follow-up question for you. Yeah I should have kept waiting I thought it was just a reaction to Peter King mock draft because again he puts it out either Sunday at 11 p or 12 p Eastern or an hour He puts it out Monday morning at 6 a.m. And then you just saw this line flip because he had Walker at number one position from, I think he might have been the second pick or third pick to being the number one pick over Aidan Hutchinson. And you know I'm wired, Chad. I just try to fade the media because I just think a lot of these guys, not that they're throwing shit against the wall and hoping it sticks, but it's like, no one really knows. And people like me who my job is to find good sources and we pay a lot of money for these moles and these sources and in these different teams. And the reason I doubled down on Aiden, I'm still buying.”
Travon Walker, not Aidan Hutchinson, was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft (Jacksonville Jaguars) (Wikipedia).
“If you were betting right now, let's say you could bet right now. Are you betting Evan Neal or Ike Mekwaneu to be the first lineman drafted, offensive lineman? So a lot of stuff has come out but Evan Neal not passing the physical or apparently a red flag had popped during his combine physical I don know When you hear that stuff the week of the draft from a multiple sources news media outlets, you have to kind of pay attention to that stuff. So I really did like him because he's just, to me, the most guaranteed to be the best, you know, NFL offensive lineman. He's just very consistent. But yeah, Quanu, he's a freak and he's huge. So to me, he's got no real questions. The whole difference was he just wasn't as polished. I honestly like that value now, taking him to be the first lineman taken. Aquanu, first lineman taken.”
Ikem Ekwonu was the first offensive lineman drafted in the 2022 NFL Draft, going No. 6 to Carolina, ahead of any other lineman (Wikipedia).
“All right, well, let's talk about it. So we think Aquanu is going to be the first lineman taken. You're putting your money down. Aidan Hutchinson, Trayvon Walker, first defensive lineman taken. Again, I still believe in Aiden just because I just see him as a guy that could come in this year going to have eight sacks and 15 tackle for losses.”
Travon Walker (DE) was the first defensive lineman drafted at No. 1 overall in the 2022 NFL Draft; Aidan Hutchinson went No. 2 (Wikipedia).
“That's why it's like, again, I want to come on here and tell people to bet all this crazy stuff. And it's like we had Scott Smith on yesterday and he had some really smart, safe bets, which I have now given out to my own people because I just thought it was really smart play, which was right now. A lot of books have four and a half for the over under cornerbacks. That's a great veteran. I bet that over like I'm looking at a bunch of different marks right now of three cornerbacks in the top 12, top 15 picks.”
Round 1 of the 2022 NFL Draft had exactly four cornerbacks selected (Stingley No. 3, Gardner No. 4, McDuffie No. 21, Elam No. 23), under the 4.5 total (Wikipedia).
“That's crazy to me to even think about. Like, we literally were three days out, and they don't know who they're going to take. So I'm going to trust my mole, trust my source that it's Aiden. I'm not going to keep betting thousands of dollars on it because I'm already having invested in it. But every time the odds drop, like he's back to plus 250 now, Aiden, I got to throw another grain on it. So it's going to burn me.”
Travon Walker, not Aidan Hutchinson, was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft (Jacksonville Jaguars) (Wikipedia).
“And I used to love to say Dick Van Dyke. I don't know why as a kid, I used to love to say Dick Van Dyke. So of course, I bet for Heisman, Tyler Van Dyke. No other reason than Dick Van Dyke.”
Caleb Williams (USC) won the 2022 Heisman Trophy, announced Dec 10, 2022; Tyler Van Dyke was not the winner (Wikipedia).
“First bet I make always Bama national champ.”
Georgia beat TCU 65-7 on Jan 9, 2023 to win the 2022-season national championship; Alabama did not make the four-team CFP field that year (Wikipedia).
“Real quick, I got one more I got to ask Colin about for Heisman. Am I crazy for betting Bo Nix? I got him at 80-1 right now in FanDuel. I've seen the talent. I know it was always only at the home games where he would actually be good. We've seen the talent, though. I really do think this kid is professional. legit new scenery is like am I crazy here 80 to 1 on bow I mean that's that's pretty pretty big”
Caleb Williams (USC) won the 2022 Heisman Trophy; Bo Nix (80-1) did not win (Wikipedia).
“on that D line that's that's incredible for Jacksonville so I'm hoping that Matthew's right that the line keeps moving because I'll take more value on Hutchinson because it was at minus 300 at one point once it dropped to minus 200 I dipped in like I started buying in on it it's down to 170 now I've been buying the dip that it's been dropping down and I'm getting a little nervous because like he's talking about, there's a lot of rumors with Jacksonville. Apparently they really are unsure of what they want to do right now. So I still think it's good value because I think he is the no-brainer here.”
Travon Walker (Jaguars) was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft; Aidan Hutchinson went 2nd to Detroit.
“I could see them being desperate. So, to me, I could see Malik making the top 10. I've actually bet the over two and a half quarterbacks just because it's kind of like Lamar Jackson thing I've just seen teams they trade back into the end of the first round to get that fifth year option that's a big deal instead of waiting taking a quarterback in the second round you only have them for four years they like to come back in could be Detroit that trades back into that first round and grabs that quarterback so I am actually on the opposite side I just like quarterback classes that people say the class sucks those are my favorite classes again”
Only one quarterback was selected in round 1 of the 2022 NFL Draft — the over 2.5 lost.
“Yeah, honestly, if I'm just going off pure value, I think the best value is honestly on Toronto minus one and a half, just because Sixers always choke as a fan. And I know this and Doc Rivers historically has choked other than that one year with Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. So Sixers don't have three all the famers on their team right now. So I'm, I'm leaning towards the Sixers losing, but obviously as a homer here, I've already bet Sixers minus one and a half, but best value Toronto minus one and a half. Plus one and a half. All right. Let's go to Bucks bulls. Simon,”
76ers won series 4-2 — 76ers beat the Raptors 4-2 in the 2022 NBA first round, covering the -1.5 series spread.
“I want to ask you about this one and we're not going to spend a lot of time on this one. Cause this is going to be like, this one's a one that's priced the shortest in terms of how long the series is going to go. Bucks are minus 1100 to win the series. Bulls are plus 700. When you got a huge matchup in any sort of sports betting situation where it just seems like everybody's like, oh, they're going to kill him. Oh, this is going to be a complete wipeout. What's your instinct? Is your instinct to like, if it's not, if the market reflects that, right, it's not just that it's a trendy spot here, but the market actually shows that there's this wave in one direction. What's your instinct there as a better? I see I love the NBA that NBA is just keep it simple stupid. We know who the best players are. We know the best systems are you know what the best teams are So I probably talk to 10 different pros that this is their biggest bet Bucks minus one and a half And we seen that line running for the series price So to me I all over the Bucs The Bulls we seen it this year right Every time you see them play a good team, they lose. And that's just who they are. They just don't have the superstars to keep them in games. The Bucs are locked in. They've only gotten better this second half of the season. So I don't know about you guys, but I love the Bucs. And you're right. Keep it simple. I'm just going to take that minus one and a half”
Bucks won series 4-1 — Bucks beat the Bulls 4-1 in the 2022 NBA first round, covering the -1.5 series spread.
“Yeah, that's my, that's my shortest future odds I did. I just did the Ravens and the simple fact that they were so injury, so many injuries last year, we know they'll come back. They'll be better. They had their plan against an easy schedule, just because they came in last place or second to last in that division. It's like, we talk, we talk every year. That's, that's a big deal. Like who you're playing week to week. if you come in first all of a sudden again you come in first place like the bangles did that's a first place schedule that's tough to get the same type of seating or the same type of wins to get that seating so i'm just purely value play off the ravens it's like i'm with people i don't know how i feel about lamar i don't know i'd feel if i was a ravens fan about paying lamar but to me this is a guy who was an mvp at one point we know his athletic talent we know how good he is in the football field he's healthy they're completely different team and no team had fewer losses by like a smaller margin last season than the Ravens. Like they're one of those teams that you flip a coin last year and they could have been the one seed if they had just flipped a lot of those one score games. So I definitely like the Ravens as a bounce back candidate this year.”
The Baltimore Ravens went 10-7 and lost in the AFC Wild Card round to the Cincinnati Bengals, 17-24, on January 15, 2023; the Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII 38-35 over Philadelphia on February 12, 2023, so the Ravens futures bet lost.
“Amen, brother. All right. Listen, before we get out of here real quickly, future is already out. Chiefs 7 Bills 7 Rams 10 Cowboys 14 Cowboys 14 to one Niners 14 to one Bengals 14 to one Packers uh currently 16 to one And then there a you know a uh uh uh quartet of teams in the 20 to 22 range Ravens, Broncos, Bucks, Titans. Have you made any futures bets immediately? Oh, yeah. So people, my biggest rule for making futures bet is you never bet less than 20 to one. OK, if you if you're betting less than 21, you are giving sports books free money because you're kind of taking away your own value and betting that number. Like last year, perfect example. At this point last year, I believe the 49ers were 14 to one. If you just waited, you could have got them 20 to one heading into the playoffs, which we were like literally one play away from them making a super old 49ers. So I never bet futures less than 20 to one. So immediately right when the market opened, Pittsburgh Steelers love, love, love Pittsburgh Steelers. Love that they are going to be on these teams in the market for a quarterback. They have the defense. We already know that right now in Fandle, they're 70 to one, 70 to one. Get this Pittsburgh team, which we know is one of the better defenses. All that's missing is a quarterback. They have great weapons on offense, too.”
The Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII 38-35 over the Eagles, so the Pittsburgh Steelers (70-1) futures bet lost (ESPN). (Super Bowl LVII winner: Kansas City Chiefs 38, Philadelphia Eagles 35)
“in the 20 to 22 range Ravens, Broncos, Bucks, Titans. Have you made any futures bets immediately? Oh, yeah. So people, my biggest rule for making futures bet is you never bet less than 20 to one. OK, if you if you're betting less than 21, you are giving sports books free money because you're kind of taking away your own value and betting that number. Like last year, perfect example. At this point last year, I believe the 49ers were 14 to one. If you just waited, you could have got them 20 to one heading into the playoffs, which we were like literally one play away from them making a super old 49ers. So I never bet futures less than 20 to one. So immediately right when the market opened, Pittsburgh Steelers love, love, love Pittsburgh Steelers. Love that they are going to be on these teams in the market for a quarterback. They have the defense. We already know that right now in Fandle, they're 70 to one, 70 to one. Get this Pittsburgh team, which we know is one of the better defenses. All that's missing is a quarterback. They have great weapons on offense, too. So that if they can get Watson, if they can somehow get Rogers at the NFC and bring him to AFC, it's like that's an immediate boost. You're not going to find my other favorite bet is right now, which I mean, you could take the Ravens if you wanted to a 21 to one. But I love this Ravens value coming to the season because you're still going to have people that are going to like the Browns. And now Cincinnati is going to have all the hype coming to the season. And so if we're getting the third seed in NFC North and it's the Ravens, you know, I'm going to love that Chad. They were the most injured team in football. You going to get really good value on a team that just will not have that same injury history next year They be healthier They much better than their record showed this year So that one of those people need to be on the lookout But right now most books legal books at least they're only going to have Super Bowl futures.”
The Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII 38-35 over the Eagles, so the Baltimore Ravens (21-1) futures bet lost (ESPN). (Super Bowl LVII winner: Kansas City Chiefs 38, Philadelphia Eagles 35)
“they're only going to have Super Bowl futures. So if I'm just going to throw a shot in the dark, 70-1 Pittsburgh, I like that number. That's a really good price. And then I hate to do it to us again, Chad, but we're simply just playing value here. Atlanta Falcons, 60-1. who's to say they're not the best team right now in the nfc south okay we know the bucks don't have a quarterback we know carolina sure as all doesn't have a quarterback so right now 60 to 1 for a team that could win their division and get home field i'll take that in atlanta i feel like that's good value as we sit here and a day after the super bowl so atlanta pittsburgh it's gross it's ugly but 70 to 1 60 to 1 that's great value all right there you have it we've run down the super bowl”
The Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII 38-35 over the Eagles, so the Atlanta Falcons (60-1) futures bet lost (ESPN). (Super Bowl LVII winner: Kansas City Chiefs 38, Philadelphia Eagles 35)
“I make this line three, four and a half, four. That's good value for this Bengals team. And I don't know if you want to touch on it, Chad. My favorite thing, we talk every year about it. I love betting Super Bowls adjusted lines. That's just something I've always done. We talk all the time. Nine out of 10 Super Bowls do not matter with the spread. So when I look at this line, people are going to say, did you take the Bengals money line? I do it different. I take a minus two and a half with this Bengals team. So I'm going to take the four and a half, the four with the Bengals. But instead of taking Moneyline, I take the two and a half because historically, never in the 55 year history of football has a game ever landed on two or one. Again, in the entire history of the Super Bowl, if you've bet either team minus two and a half, you've won that bet because it's never, ever, ever landed on two or one. I don't know why. That is weird. It's a weird stat. But someone told me that very early on. And they like you can take advantage of this because instead of taking Bengals money line you know plus 150 or plus 160 you take the minus two and a half it plus 200 So this is what year three of us doing a Superbowl Chad we two and O in Superbowls That means if we done this every year, again, we had better odds doing it. But if we did this every year, you'd be up plus 400,”
CIN 20, LAR 23 — Rams beat Bengals 23-20 (CIN margin -3); Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I make this line three, four and a half, four. That's good value for this Bengals team. And I don't know if you want to touch on it, Chad. My favorite thing, we talk every year about it. I love betting Super Bowls adjusted lines. That's just something I've always done. We talk all the time. Nine out of 10 Super Bowls do not matter with the spread. So when I look at this line, people are going to say, did you take the Bengals money line? I do it different. I take a minus two and a half with this Bengals team. So I'm going to take the four and a half, the four with the Bengals. But instead of taking Moneyline, I take the two and a half because historically, never in the 55 year history of football has a game ever landed on two or one. Again, in the entire history of the Super Bowl, if you've bet either team minus two and a half, you've won that bet because it's never, ever, ever landed on two or one. I don't know why. That is weird. It's a weird stat. But someone told me that very early on. And they like you can take advantage of this because instead of taking Bengals money line you know plus 150 or plus 160 you take the minus two and a half it plus 200 So this is what year three of us doing a Superbowl Chad we two and O in Superbowls That means if we done this every year, again, we had better odds doing it. But if we did this every year, you'd be up plus 400,”
CIN 20, LAR 23 — Bengals lost the game outright 20-23, so Bengals -2.5 (needing an outright win by 3+) busts (ESPN box score).
“actually embedding Rams first half. I like the value on the Rams first half. It's up to minus three now for Rams first half. Hopefully you can shop around and find a minus two and a half.”
Rams led 13-10 at halftime, a 3-point margin that clears the first-half -2.5 line (ESPN box score). (Halftime: Rams 13, Bengals 10)
“We liked the under at 48 and a half. We thought it would get steamed [26:49] down even more. It really hasn't. It's still sitting at 48 and a half taking the under.”
CIN 20, LAR 23 — Rams 23, Bengals 20; combined 43 points is under the 48.5 total (ESPN box score).
“I love betting these under especially these first half unders what were the sort of your non-player prop markets that you were paying attention to um it all depends I mean looking at this one like I know Stucky says he hates betting things before the game starts I actually love that it's like I'm a gambler let's get this started so heads or tails like I'm all into that stuff. I tell people to ask me, should they bet? I say, yeah, throw a couple of bucks on it. You literally are losing money technically by the value. Like it should just be even money. They're charging you minus one 10. Like the books know what they're doing. It's free money for the sports books, but it's fun. Like everyone's sitting there on the TV, drinking your beer, betting that. So for more serious when I love the two point conversion every year, it's at a plus number. We've just seen the last, especially the last 20 years where these coaches have kind of updated their playbooks. If a team gets down double digits in the Superbowl, historically, the two point hits at 80% clip. So that means if either team gets up by two touchdowns, we're going to be cashing this bet. Last year didn work out for us with the chiefs The chiefs just couldn score a touchdown So it mainly you need the team chasing to get the two pointers And it didn work out for us last year Makes me love it even more this year It a good number too I seeing a plus 135 at certain books I think it's plus 120 at FanDuel. Raybon and Kroener, you both mentioned heavily researched props,”
The Rams' only two-point conversion attempt of the game failed, so no 2-point conversion was scored and the Yes prop lost (ESPN). (Rams 2-point conversion attempt: failed)
“Simon, if you were to give me your favorite player props right now that you are smashing, will smash hoping to smash if the market moves a little bit what are they Yeah and and i i when i look at these kind of player props like i i do have a system for it but nowhere near as extensive as sean and chris are like i i'm definitely more of a spreads and totals kind of guy but the the super bowl is where you can really get great value on the player props and it's like the rare instance where i bet more on props than i do even on the game just because that's where you're going to find the value so the the biggest one that jumped out to me how many people love Tee Higgins so when i saw his number it's gone up for sure but the rationale was probably just ramsay's gonna shadow chase so that's why you're gonna get a good number with t higgs and when you're looking at this style that's that's that is a really good price for him he's uh right now he's at 69.5 on fandle that's that's a good number for him his athleticism what we think this game's gonna go i could easily see him reaching that number especially where he's got to step up he's not gonna get in Ramsey that's a big moment for him my other favorite one is another number two receiver it's Odell Beckham Jr.”
Tee Higgins finished with 100 receiving yards, over the 69.5 line (ESPN box score). (Tee Higgins: 100 receiving yards)
“he's been really good to me these playoffs I've just been betting his over props I've been betting him to score touchdowns he keeps delivering so I look at this offense we already know what Cooper Cup's gonna do like he's gonna probably end up putting up 100 they're gonna shadow the whole defense to him eventually they'll adjust and just have him double box or triple box like they're just gonna make it so if they're going to give up a catch to Cooper cup, it's only going to go for 10, 15 yards where Odell, we've seen them get open. We've seen them make these big plays in these playoffs. So I love that number. I think it's really short, uh, seeing it at 61.5 right now in FanDuel.”
Odell Beckham Jr. finished with 52 receiving yards, under the 61.5 line (ESPN box score). (Odell Beckham Jr.: 52 receiving yards)
“my long shot it goes [46:57] against chris a little bit but not really it's my guy stafford two touchdowns 101 he's had two [47:04] rushing touchdowns these playoffs”
Stafford threw 3 passing TDs but had 0 rushing attempts and 0 receiving yards, so he scored no rushing/receiving TD himself and the 100-1 longshot lost (ESPN box score). (Matthew Stafford: 3 passing TDs, 0 rushing/receiving TDs)
“i already bet the three and a half i already bet the four with the bangles [28:23] it touched four and a half and my runner texted me he's like you want it i was just like [28:27] yeah”
CIN 20, LAR 23 — Rams beat Bengals 23-20 (CIN margin -3); Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I do want people to grab the under now just because it is like we grabbed at a 50 and a half Sunday night. Now it's down to 48.”
CIN 20, LAR 23 — Rams 23, Bengals 20; combined 43 points is under the 48 total (ESPN box score).
“So nothing's changed, buddy. Like if you're giving me seven, I'm still going to take it. I get why you're taking the seven and a half. I know a bunch of other pros have taken a seven and a half, but I am starting to feel more and more comfortable taking this chiefs team, knowing that so much Bengal money is coming in.”
27-24 — Bengals beat Chiefs 27-24 in OT (AFC Championship); Kansas City lost outright, so Chiefs -7 busts (ESPN box score).
“Simon says bet the Niners plus three and a half.”
17-20 — Rams beat 49ers 20-17 (NFC Championship); San Francisco lost by 3, covering the +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“as we sit here right now, Chad, I'm, I'm right there with you, buddy. Like all these professionals, me, we're all over the 49ers. We're on the three and a half. We have our 20 to one future, which sorry again about the Titans eight to one that didn't work, but we still have a 20 to one on the 49ers. And at this point, again, we'll talk about that next show about hedging that. That's just a great ticket to have in your back pocket because you can take the three and a half now, which is a key number and you don't have to take the money line on the ramp of the 49ers. If you don't want to, you can just let that future ride. You have a 21 money line right now on the 49ers. So I'm, I'm with you. I'm scared about it. That it's just sat there at the three and a half. Cause I'm like, yo, I thought it'd be three by now, but I bet it. That's my biggest bet right now of the weekend. I, I bet it three and a half. Like Chad, I woke up expecting it Monday morning to be down to three. It wasn't better. It again, woke up again this morning, still a three and a half better again. So we'll see about the injury news.”
17-20 — Rams beat 49ers 20-17 (NFC Championship); San Francisco lost by 3, covering the +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“People are just talking about the Chiefs and the Bills. Like, whoever wins that game is going to win the AFC. People are just sleeping on this Tennessee team. So, you're right there, Chad. Like, I got to take this number. I got to take Tennessee. As long as it stays under four, you're getting a great number. Even if it hits four, I still think that's a good number for this Tennessee side and the under, like we talked about. I just – I like Tennessee to ball control this game. Again, amazing story by Cincinnati. It feels like they're a year or two away from playing an AFC championship game. So they got to pay their dues. This is one of those games where if it's since he was at home, I'd maybe think about them in the upset. But the fact they're on the road, like Chad just said, after such an emotional big win, their coach going around, giving game balls out of all those bars. Like, I can't get over how cool of a story that is. But that just felt like that was their Super Bowl. So we usually win these spots. Like last week with the Raiders, We faded the Raiders off that huge emotional win against the Chargers. It worked out for us. Maybe we got a couple of calls go our way. We got a little lucky. But those are the kind of situations. That's why you play those kind of numbers. And again, with this Tennessee team, I think we're getting a good number. Reminder that the Titans minus three and a half are my scooch roulette pick. And I'm saying it now because we're going to transition into the Chiefs and the Bills a little bit more deeply.”
19-16 — Bengals won 19-16 at Tennessee (Divisional Round); Titans lost outright, so Titans -3.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“go below 500 this week i just really like the sides running i like the total is like again I got three unders one over I might as well be four unders like I I could flip come game time but I can tell you right now my I made a small bet on the over just because I just really don't want to be cheering for an under and uh my home first Josh Allen matchup your unders are Cincinnati Tennessee under 47 it uh Green Bay San Francisco under 47 Tampa LA under 48 and a half And you like over 54 and a half in Kansas City Buffalo Follow everything we're doing in the Action Network app.”
19-16 — Bengals beat Titans 19-16 (Divisional Round); combined 35 stays under the 47 total (ESPN box score).
“But we are with the Kansas City Chiefs minus two, minus one and a half against the Buffalo Bills.”
36-42 — Chiefs beat Bills 42-36 in OT (Divisional Round); Chiefs margin +6 covers -2 (ESPN box score).
“but I can tell you right now my I made a small bet on the over just because I just really don't want to be cheering for an under and uh my home first Josh Allen matchup your unders are Cincinnati Tennessee under 47 it uh Green Bay San Francisco under 47 Tampa LA under 48 and a half And you like over 54 and a half in Kansas City Buffalo Follow everything we're doing in the Action Network app.”
36-42 — Chiefs beat Bills 42-36 in OT (Divisional Round); combined 78 clears the 54.5 total (ESPN box score).
“I did bet the Rams at plus three early this morning.”
30-27 — Rams beat Buccaneers 30-27 (Divisional Round); Los Angeles won outright, so Rams +3 covers (ESPN box score).
“that's happened. I love the under. I know a bunch of professionals. They really like the under in this matchup between the Rams. And we've seen what this Rams defense can do. They shut down that Cardinals team like it was nothing last week. Obviously, they're not going to do that against Tom Brady, but with Matthew Stafford shakiness and Tom Brady going up against a much better defense than that Eagles team, again, I don't think they're going to be in a lot of short fields against this Rams team, hopefully, with Stafford. So I like them. I'm with the pros on that. Right now it's sitting at 48.5, 49. I'd take this down to 47. So that's a good number taking that under.”
30-27 — Rams beat Buccaneers 30-27 (Divisional Round); combined 57 clears the 48.5 total, so the under busts (ESPN box score).
“going through concussion protocols. Fred Warner is supposed to be back too for this 49ers defense. Big, big deals to me for this team. So I'm sticking to it, Chad. I believe in this 49ers team. I still think they have a really good chance to win outright, but taking that six, that's the smart player. You take that number.”
13-10 — 49ers beat Packers 13-10 (Divisional Round); San Francisco won outright, so 49ers +6 covers easily (ESPN box score).
“They ball control. If Joe Burrow has one or two three and outs, it's over for Cincy. So I made this number four. I still think you're getting a good number if it hits four for Tennessee. I would take a three and a half, but I'm cool with people waiting. You can wait and get the three, but I don't know what the public's going to do with this number, but I can tell you professionals are going to take Tennessee in this spot Yeah well that what I was confused about to be honest because I saw the three and a half and I thinking to myself there no way the sports books would post this as three and a half unless they really, really felt good about the Titans, because they know that the public is going to come in and want to take the Bengals. and they will, I think, eventually on the half point. Right now, the money is on the Titans. The bets are on the Titans, but the discrepancy between the money and the bets is very large, meaning 83% of the money is on the Titans, 65% of the bets. And that's just because they opened it at two and a half. They hung a bad line with Tennessee and they just got bet up real quick. Again, it's a soft open when they give up those lines. They're not going to take 20, 30K bets on that. They're going to maybe take at the top 10K. But that's probably why you're seeing the money discrepancy, just because we talk all the time. The public usually doesn't bet till Saturday night, Sunday morning. That's usually when they come in. So that makes sense that so much money is coming early on in Tennessee. Larry Ogunjobi, that's the defensive tackle who's out. Yeah, if I don't try to pronounce a name, there's a there's a reason. Thank you, Chad, because I saw I was just like, maybe I can just get away with talking about the bestie tackle. But yeah, he's seriously, he's one of the most important players that since he defensed, but no one cares because it's a D tackle. So people don't even know anything about this guy. I'm telling you to that run defense. He is huge. This, this Bengals team. Do we think there's a shot? This line moves down. That's what I'm hoping. Like, again, I took the two and a half. I took the three. I took a three and a half just in case it does go up to four, which is what I make this game. But I do think the public will come in. It's just, they love Joe Burrow. They love what they've seen from this offense. and no one trusts Tennessee. There's a reason Tennessee is plus 850. People just don't trust them. Their Super Bowl future is plus 850. No one just trusts the Tennessee Titans. So that's why I'm shocked this wasn't three. I assume they would make this game three. The fact that they opened at two and a half and then shot it up to three and a half just shows you that they might have hung a bad line. They should have just opened it at three. So we'll see. It could get to four, but I don't mind taking the three and a half because it is a key number.”
19-16 — Bengals won 19-16 at Tennessee (Divisional Round); Titans lost outright, so Titans -3.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“you can say they played an easy conference and who'd they really play even against good teams. Their defense was really good. I just have to get it to this chiefs team. They've just been here so many times. Chad just said that number is down to two. I can't not take it. I can't not take this number under three. So I made this minus three. I'm taking the value. Chad, he might be on the bills, man, Mitchell, please don't hate me. It's just, it's just business. My friend. How could I hate you for that? I only had one note. My only note was the bill spent an entire off season preparing themselves to play the Chiefs in the playoffs. You've covered it already. They've designed every move to beat”
36-42 — Chiefs beat Bills 42-36 in OT (Divisional Round); Chiefs margin +6 covers -2 (ESPN box score).
“This is the kind of game where I do think it'll probably play against type. The total is really high, 54 and a half. I'm actually on that over. What? I know. And like statistically, I usually would go on the under. I just, these two offenses, I just can't see either quarterback giving a damn. what the scores they're just going to be throwing the ball so weather permitting i think stucky”
36-42 — Chiefs beat Bills 42-36 in OT (Divisional Round); combined 78 clears the 54.5 total (ESPN box score).
“Simon Says bet. Get it if you could at three and a half on Tuesday, but it's generally been sitting in three. So you probably didn't get it at three and a half. Nothing's changed for me. All the stats, all the trends, everything backs up what we said about the Niners the other day, which is, you know, against the, they've got the coaching advantage. They've got the line of scrimmage advantage. They've got the defensive advantage when it comes to stopping the run. All things to me, .9ers plus three. Terrifying though. You just read the stats, but all the money, all the bets coming on them. I really thought the public would be back in Dallas. Historically, Dallas is a public”
SF 23, DAL 17 — 49ers beat Cowboys 23-17; 49ers +3 covered by 6 (ESPN box score).
“I'll tell you right now, our friends at FanDuel currently have this game at Bengals minus four and a half minus 114. I'd pay a little bit extra juice to get the four and a half because at the end of the day, It's just not a massive amount.”
CIN 26, LV 19 — Bengals beat Raiders 26-19; Bengals -4.5 covered by 2.5 (ESPN box score).
“So to me, that's my favorite under the day because I made this number 43, 44 and a half.”
BUF 47, NE 17 — Bills beat Patriots 47-17 (64 combined points); under 44.5 lost (ESPN box score).
“to bet these teasers that's a key number teasing it down from eight and a half to two and a half again we talk all the time three is a key number the books know what they doing they know they they letting people bet that so i shocked to hear you be so joe public on that one I on the Eagles and I actually on the over in this one I don let the wind I not letting that weather scare me off To me, both these teams have distinct advantages on offense. The Eagles know exactly what they are and what they want to do. Not enough people are going to talk about it. The matchup of Goddard versus the linebackers of this Bucs team, to me that's the difference of this entire game. Again, the Eagles are going to try to run it, everything like that, But the way you beat this Buccaneers team is you have to throw it to your tight end. You have to make it so they're not blitzing. They have to respect that middle of the field. And the Eagles, I've seen it time and time again. Since we got rid of Ertz, Goddard's been, I guess Devontae Smith's our best receiver, but Goddard's right there with him. This guy, every time we need a third down, Goddard's been there for this Eagles team. So I love it at eight and a half.”
TB 31, PHI 15 — Buccaneers beat Eagles 31-15; Eagles +8.5 lost by 16 (ESPN box score).
“Cowboys haven't played a good run team since, I don't know, early November. They are one of the worst run teams. They just haven't faced teams that can run the ball. So they've kind of gotten away with it. People that aren't really on that, maybe they are. Maybe people are looking at the exact numbers I'm looking at where it's like, this is an overinflated line. Dallas should not be minus three. The 49ers to me, they're just one of my favorite futures. At 20 to one, I like the value of getting on this 49ers team to make it to the Super Bowl. So I'm right there with you, Chad, nothing's changed here. I'm still on the 49ers team. They're under a great field for this total. I lean towards the over just because both these offenses can't put up so many”
49ers lost the NFC Championship Game to the Rams 20-17, so the 49ers +2000 NFC futures ticket lost (Wikipedia).
“My very first instinct with the Bengals is a five and a half point favorite. You fucking smash the Bengals.”
CIN 26, LV 19 — Bengals beat Raiders 26-19; Bengals -5.5 covered by 1.5 (ESPN box score).
“Patriots as four-point underdogs, that's going to be a foxhole.”
BUF 47, NE 17 — Bills beat Patriots 47-17; Patriots +4 lost by 30 (ESPN box score).
“San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys. This game is on Sunday at 430. Generally, like, it opened at three and a half. It got bet down to three. It's pretty much stayed there. It's a pros-Joes game. Professionals are going to be on the Niners. The public is going to be on the Cowboys. This is my Simon Says game. right when i saw this number i i love that three and a half still love it at three”
SF 23, DAL 17 — 49ers beat Cowboys 23-17; 49ers +3 covered by 6 (ESPN box score).
“It the best though It really is It was fun It gave me a reason to almost stay up for the whole game Not saying I did I just saying almost All right Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs Pittsburgh on the road 12 and a half point dogs It a pro Joe game right now. 70% of the money coming on the Steelers. Wow. I'm shocked by that. I'm on the Chiefs. I can't believe it, but I am. I made this line 14. I'm shocked it's come down to 12 and a half. That's fair. You know what? Now that I'm thinking about it, like what the Chiefs, they They barely got by against Denver. That's crazy that the pros are coming in on Pittsburgh. I get it. They're looking at their defense, but we're like, who the hell have they played? They just beat who? The Browns? That are nothing left. And then they beat the backup of the Ravens. What the fuck? That's wild. I can't believe that. So there's six games. I feel like this is making you think hard about whether or not this could be one of the five that we choose. Yeah. I mean, I've already bet the Chiefs, though. I'm like, that sucks. I got a shit number because I thought I was going to get bet up.”
KC 42, PIT 21 — Chiefs beat Steelers 42-21; Chiefs -12.5 covered by 8.5 (ESPN box score).
“I want to make sure we talk about the games that we talked about on Tuesday. talked about the Dolphins quite a bit. So real quick on the Dolphins, I want to make that our big balls bet of the week. Big balls bet of the week. Dolphins is a game that very few will be betting with us. And I touched on that last week. Now I'm looking at the action app and seeing how much money, all the bets, everything coming on the Patriots. This is truly no one's betting this Dolphins team. The fact that it's moved now to six and a half, The money and tickets have only gone up on the Patriots. More people have come in on the Patriots because they think they're getting a better number. The book knows what they're doing. They know what they're doing, Chad. They're laying a little trap here. So, again, the amount of pushback I got as well, it made me really like the Dolphins even more. The fact that it's reverse line moving, even though we're off no information other than professional money is coming on the Dolphins, that's the best. So, still love it at six and a half. Still think you're getting above a key number, which I talk about all the time. I think six is a key number. Still take that Dolphins at six and a half.”
MIA 33, NE 24 — Dolphins beat Patriots 33-24; Dolphins +6.5 covered by 2.5 (ESPN box score).
“So, yeah, I agree. I like the Washington football team here. Jags plus 15 and a half. So let me read you some of those stats that Stucky had on his podcast this morning because I thought they were really good and very specific about the Jags. Look, you and I talked about this. The Colts haven't won in Jacksonville in forever. That's my favorite stat, whatever it was, 2014 or 2015. them won. Yeah. I'm going to read some of the stats that I listened to on the Action Network podcast with Chris Rabon and Stucky talking about the Jags as big dogs against the Colts, because it was specific to this game. I mentioned a couple of them in the Texans, but it's very specific to this game. In addition to the Colts not having won in Jacksonville in like seven years, inflation on must win teams like the Colts in this spot. Bookmakers know the public is automatically assuming teams that have something to play for will come in and be more motivated than teams that don't have anything to play for. Since 2003, teams that are in a must-win spot are 16 and 26, 38% against the spread. Faves of more than a field goal, 10 and 22, 31% against the spread. If you need a bigger sample size, since 1980, these teams are 40% against the spread. The Texans obviously fit this spot as well. But this feels like... You're going to bet the Jags one last time. This might be your best bet. Yeah. And we've, we've seen the money coming in, the pro money coming in on the Jaguars. It's, is that the biggest pro versus Joe game on the board? No, not even close. Like that, that to me just felt like it'd be a pro game where I could see the money coming in on the Jaguars. I just can't see any tickets coming in on the Jaguars. It feels like one out of every 10 better would bet the Jags. Like that's how much more bets are going to be on the cold. So I'm right there with them. I feel like, We're getting three, four points of free points just because of what you just said, that everyone just is like, okay, the Colts need this game. They need it to make the playoffs. Let me put them in my 13-point teaser, do whatever, so that they just inflate this line all the way up to, what is it, 15, 15.5? That's way too many points. Like I talked last year, I think I said I made this game 11. I moved it to 12. There might be a couple starters out for this Jaguars team on defense. Still, too many points. If it's over two touchdowns, I have to take this with the Jaguars. I hate doing it, too.”
JAX 26, IND 11 — Jaguars beat Colts 26-11; Jaguars +15.5 covered by 0.5 (ESPN box score).
“Washington football team. That line has moved up. I think we liked it at six and a half. I'm now seeing it. I think seven. Still would take it at seven. I've seen some books do it. Seven and a half. Obviously we like the value much more at six and a half giants are my worst graded team. They have a backup quarterback playing in this game. Their head coach talked shit about Ron Rivera Ron Rivera team loves to play for him They've been motivated by him all year Again for a team that lost their starting quarterback Week one Or I don even think it was week one It might have been before the season Fitz went down that injury Pretty amazing what they done this year Washington I'm looking at two teams that one is completely quit on their head coach. They know the coach is gone. Washington, I know Rivera's going to be back. I know that this team is, they're bad, but they're not one of the worst five teams in football. So you're giving me still seven points against Jake Fromm and this Giants offense that, what they put up, negative 10 yards passing last week, something insane like that. I'm going to keep fading. I'm going to take a team that's the team has not quit yet come week 18. That'll be like one of my things for this final week. That's this is the biggest one. You're literally looking at a team that is straight quit. The Giants have quit. They have not played hard in three weeks, so nothing's changed. Still like Washington. Yeah, Joe Judge has clearly had a little bit of a meltdown this past week. He called out the Washington football team for fighting on the sidelines, refused to meet with the Washington media to sort of discuss it and answer questions about it. There's no doubt in my mind Ron Rivera is using this all to build motivation for one last stand for the Washington football team against a division rival and embarrass them a little bit.”
WSH 22, NYG 7 — Washington beat Giants 22-7; Washington -7 covered by 8 (ESPN box score).
“We like the Bills minus 16 and a half.”
BUF 27, NYJ 10 — Bills beat Jets 27-10; Bills -16.5 covered by 0.5 (ESPN box score).
“We like the Texans plus 10 and a half.”
TEN 28, HOU 25 — Titans beat Texans 28-25; Texans +10.5 covered by 7.5 (ESPN box score).
“The other one that we got to talk about, the Rams and the Niners. Tickets on the Niners, money on the Rams. As the week's gone along and the more we've heard about Jimmy, it's not going to be Jimmy. It does not look like Jimmy's going to be able to play. His injury seems like it's pretty serious. We re-watched that Houston game with Trey Lance. Shanahan, as much shit as I love to give the guy, we always talk about it. I do think he's one of the best offensive minds in football. They had three points in the first half. In the second half, he completely changed up what he was doing with this offense with Trey Lance. Trey Lance, my first thought was this kid's first initial reads would be to always pull it down and run. He was going through reads. He had literally really smart pocket awareness in that second half. taking long shots when you could take it whenever there's stuff underneath you would take that just intelligent very intelligent for what I was not again I thought Trey Lance was just gonna be one of these athletes that come in first read not there pulls it down runs it because he is a really gifted athlete he's not he's he's way smarter than I thought he was going to be but watching that tape it could be really bad for this 49ers team against the Rams the biggest thing I saw was that Houston team if you had a comparable quarterback and a receivers, you are going to pass all over this 49ers team. Their secondary is bad. So looking up the matchups, I looked on the defensive side for this Rams team going up against that front line of the 49ers. He's gonna have a lot of pressure. He didn't have any real pressure in his face that whole Houston game. No real pressure on him. That's going to change dramatically. So as much as I like him taking his time, making all of his reads, it's not going to be as easy as it was against Houston. I told you, I thought this line should be six. The fact that it's still, What is it? Moves up to four and a half now. A little bit. Yeah. We seen some books at five Still think you getting value on this Rams team I I thought coming in that Tennessee would be I mean 49ers would be more of a public team That's not that crazy to hear the public's on that, just because in a division matchup like this, people are looking at this Rams team. They're saying to themselves, Stafford hasn't played well in weeks. He really hasn't. If you go through what Stafford's done these last couple of weeks, he just has not played well. But this is a perfect spot for him to get right. This is one of the worst secondaries in all football. So at home, like we said, we're fading Trey Lance on the road, making his first road start. I love it that it's still under a touchdown. I do think you're still getting good value on this Rams team. Yeah, totally agree. I bet him at four. It's creeping back up. So you say get the value. I say get it now because you want to get the best of the number. And four is a key number.”
SF 27, LAR 24 — 49ers beat Rams 27-24 in OT; Rams -4 lost by 3 (ESPN box score).
“The Falcons plus four and a half, but you might be able to wait on that.”
NO 30, ATL 20 — Saints beat Falcons 30-20; Falcons +4.5 lost by 10 (ESPN box score).
“I did make a little bet on Denver. A pro group has come in. They bet Denver against the Chiefs. I hate betting Drew Locke. I know Teddy's out. They put him on injury reserve. So the season is done. So it is Drew Locke. I trust these guys. They're legit. Their reasoning behind betting Denver is sound. They think that this is a look ahead game for Kansas City. Kansas City is going to be overlooking Denver. They know all they got to do is win. Andy Reid is going to take his foot off the gas come the second half. Denver at home, you're getting 10 and a half. Take it, I guess. But I mean, for Saturdays, it goes, I'd say I bet more on the Cowboys for Saturday compared to this Denver team. But I just want to put it out there just in case people are wondering what we're doing Saturday. I have a little bet on Denver.”
KC 28, DEN 24 — Chiefs beat Broncos 28-24; Broncos +10.5 covered by 6.5 (ESPN box score).
“But I mean, for Saturdays, it goes, I'd say I bet more on the Cowboys for Saturday compared to this Denver team. But I just want to put it out there just in case people are wondering what we're doing Saturday. I have a little bet on Denver. I have much more bet on Dallas. Mike McCarthy has said that his starters will play. The Eagles really have nothing to play for. Their position is negligible in terms of ability to change in the playoffs. They got a ton of COVID. So it's really just going to be Dallas trying to, you know, stay sharp. And I can see that line moving. Like I could see you getting the seven now and by Saturday morning it up to eight eight or nine Yeah It going to be bet up by the public Cowboys are one of the most public teams Chad I had a bunch of people keep reaching out about this end of the year review that you and Matt Mitchell like to bring up”
DAL 51, PHI 26 — Cowboys beat Eagles 51-26; Cowboys -7 covered by 18 (ESPN box score).
“So to me, I'd bookend it with the Dolphins Atlanta, one of those two. Dolphins, to me, better value just because you're getting extra points with them at home. But love them both both home dogs divisional matchups we take that every time i love the falcons and the dolphins together did i tell you i got a new phone chad i'm excited for you they only had red luckily i have a philly sticker so that kind of helps out but i'm not a fan of red phones you're such a fucking john i heard the most philly conversation that day made me think of you this one guy i was You know what, this other guy, and the guy said, fuck yous, you fucking fucks. It's so good. The Dolphins Atlanta together is plus 821 on the action app.”
Parlay lost: Dolphins beat Patriots 33-24 (Dolphins ML won), but Saints beat Falcons 30-20 (Falcons ML lost) (ESPN box scores).
“Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There's only two games left, and you're basically going to say, hey, take the Panthers plus eight against the Buccaneers. Simon says. why would you do that love it i love this game so much i don't know i'm hearing from a couple little birdies that the bucks are gonna be sitting guys and resting guys but they're not gonna be trying this game and it's the rare opportunity to take a Carolina Panther team that no I don't know no one's gonna be betting this number I'm just grabbing it early now just in case the news does come out that the rumors are true that Tom's not playing a bunch of their starters aren't playing they they just gonna throw this game away before they get it ready for the playoff run So I think we getting a good number I already saw that Carolina is playing their starters They trying to win Their coach is an idiot Take the plus eight now. That's why I'm giving out what Simon says.”
TB 41, CAR 17 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 41-17; Panthers +8 lost by 24 (ESPN box score).
“That's why I want to give out Carolina and give out their money line.”
TB 41, CAR 17 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 41-17; Panthers moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“right now if i'm looking at this the only games that we think we really really like the bills minus 16 and a half and the falcons plus four and a half we're a wait and see on the browns we're a wait and see on the steelers we're leaning towards the texans we're leaning towards washington football team we're a wait and see on the vikings yeah i mean i told you i only made four bets out of 16 games well who the fuck were the bets on I mean, you're getting there, sweetheart. You're getting warmer. Well, they better be the Falcons and the fucking Bills. I bet Atlanta. Okay.”
NO 30, ATL 20 — Saints beat Falcons 30-20; Falcons +4.5 lost by 10 (ESPN box score).
“But I just have to go by the simplest fact that it's Trey Lance on the road against, you know, a top 10 defense. I got to take the Rams in this position, especially if you're giving me a number like four. That's just a key number. So to me, if this was six, six and a half, I'd start thinking about 49ers, but it's still at the low four. I'll take the four of the Rams.”
SF 27, LAR 24 — 49ers beat Rams 27-24 in OT; Rams -4 lost by 3 (ESPN box score).
“So give me the dolphins, give me the dolphins money line.”
MIA 33, NE 24 — Dolphins beat Patriots 33-24; Dolphins moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“But I'll take Bills at minus 17.”
BUF 27, NYJ 10 — Bills beat Jets 27-10; Bills -17 pushed exactly (ESPN box score).
“Bookmakers just bank on public overreactions Everyone in Vegas loves this game You mentioned it You got calls from eight different groups that love this game Washington football team bang it Again, I try to tell people all the time. A lot of these groups are calling me because they want me to make bets for them in New Jersey. That's honestly why a lot of these guys reach out to me. There might be two books that take professional money in Vegas. New Jersey, it's easy to spread it out. You can get 1,000 down on 20 different books. That's a 20K bet instead of really popping up on these books radars, you're going to spread it out. So the reason a lot of these guys are calling me talking about Washington is just they're trying to get that four. That was the biggest thing. A lot of people reaching out because they wanted that plus four. So that's a good number by stucking them. I bet you it goes even higher in divisional matchups. But the biggest thing is just Washington has a great run defense up front, and we've seen it with Hurts. He's inconsistent. The public's going to keep coming in on this Eagles number. That should be a big warning sign to people that's already come back down. Again, some offshore books have this down to three. That's a huge, huge red flag to people. When 80% of the bets, 80% of the money is coming in on the Eagles, and the line has now moved the full point from four down to three, that's a big sign, a big warning sign not to be taking the Eagles. So as we sit here, if this line is three and a half in our contest, how do we not make it one of our five? I agree. I'm with you, man, 100%.”
PHI 20, WSH 16 — Philadelphia beat Washington 20-16, so Washington's 4-point loss busts the +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“We love the Vikings here. Big balls, bet of the week. Big balls, bet of the week. So much pushback from our followers. Oh my God. I get it. People hate betting Kirk in primetime. We know we have to take this number. It's so inflated. Can I just say one thing? I think those prime time, there are systems that matter, that have data sets that are huge. There are gimmicks. This feels like a fucking gimmick. It is glaring though. I got to look it up because people keep posting it. But I think it was like two and nine against the spread in prime time games. Something crazy like that. But it's too big of a number in a matchup. And especially with Green Bay is the public darling. We knew – I'm on some chalk this week. I'm not going to lie. I actually flipped from the Cardinals to the Cowboys. I'm on the Cowboys now. The more tape I've watched, the more numbers I've looked into. This one I haven't changed. If anything, I feel even better about my position on the Vikings. The fact that Dalvin Cook is now back for this Vikings team, his run style is perfect for a matchup against this Green Bay run defense. They hate running backs with speed and power that go up the middle. That's one of the worst things they're defending Green Bay this year. That exactly what Dalvin Cook does He is a man with speed and power So looking at this across the board Chad just talked about it It moves up to seven Grab that seven if you can I worried about by the time you hear this we be back down to six and a half which still is fine I still happy taking a six and a half Just a pro versus shows game Like Chad talked about it. It's a primetime game. Everyone, all their money line parlays, all their teasers, everything is going to end Sunday night tied to this game. We're getting two, three points of value just because of that. The bookmakers, they had to pump this lineup just to, you know, factor in all that money coming in on those money line parlays and teasers so as long as you're getting six and a half i still love this number why did you flip on the cardinals and the cowboys”
GB 37, MIN 10 — Green Bay beat Minnesota 37-10, so the Vikings' 27-point loss busts the +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Titans have not moved. They're at three and a half against the Dolphins. Everybody who's professional likes the Titans this week. yeah you saw it though you did see a little bit of movement it came down to three so some pro group did come in on miami they moved it then way more money came back in on tennessee and it went right back up it might have moved just for a couple hours and it was shot back up three and a half you you know more better than me like i don't i i know stucky hates miami i'm sure he's all over this tennessee game his his simple reason is just going to be what a lot of people are looking at It's like Miami hasn't beat anyone on this win streak. Who are they to you know be under six points against a Tennessee team that has been proven has been beating good teams while injured I mean they were beating teams while they had key guys out Now they getting a lot of these key guys back So yeah I know it your Scrooge roulette pick so you already love it You're already in on it. Tennessee, if you're getting under four, under five, that's a great number. You have to take it and just live with the results. This number should be six.”
TEN 34, MIA 3 — Tennessee beat Miami 34-3, a 31-point margin, covering the -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Oh, this line should be three. The Browns are a better team on paper. Maybe I'll just take the Browns here. No, when I made this line, I made a minus one for the Pittsburgh. I still think I'm getting four and a half points of value. I'll still take Pittsburgh. I know it's gonna be the public side. They're a public dog. Please don't talk to me about more victories. That'd be disrespectful to those guys in the room. maybe some pro group is coming on the Cleveland. That's why they've kept it this way. But I was positive by today it would be down to three. And the fact that it's still three and a half, little scary, little scary. Cause the bookmakers are not doing us any favors. They don't want to give us an extra hook for free. They want you to pay for that hook. They want to move to three and make some sucker pay minus one 25 to buy that hookup. So it is interesting. That's line hasn't moved, but nothing's changed. I'm still betting it. I've still bet it every day this week. Ben Roethlisberger's last home game.”
PIT 26, CLE 14 — Pittsburgh beat Cleveland 26-14, a 12-point margin, covering the +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“The Bengals were still at seven, seven and a half. I'd be all over it. It's not. It's down to five. The professionals, the public, everyone has come in and bet the Bengals down to this point. So nothing's changed here. I still love the Chiefs. I know I might be walking into or stepping in that the Chiefs are due for a letdown game. I feel like they had letdown games and they kind of gotten away with it because their defense has been that good for them So their offense to me is clicking into form They only getting better They have Travis Kelsey back this week They going to keep improving on what they been building So that defense with that offense against this Bengals team, this line should have been seven. The fact that it's moved so much just because of what the Bengals did last week, winning such a big game, putting up so many points against a beat up Ravens team, it still feels like we're getting free points here. So to me, you're getting this number under six. you have to take it every time you have to take the chiefs here all right i mean i'm i'm siding”
CIN 34, KC 31 — Cincinnati beat Kansas City 34-31, so the Chiefs lost outright, busting the -5 (ESPN box score).
“For this matchup everything you just said is true We take the Jets here The Buccaneers they a great team We know Tom Brady dominates rookies The Jets are coming off a big win But they at home And we're going against a Buccaneers team that, again, that game last week was more about Carolina. Carolina just could not get anything going. I think they put up, what, six points against this Buccaneers team that they've just lost Shaq Barrett now to that D-line. So the injuries keep mounting. I know Antonio Brown came back last week. He looked great for that Buccaneers team. He really helped carry that offense. But to me, at 15 points, whatever this might be, 13 and a half points, whatever you can get, you take the Jets here. It's too inflated of a line. So I don't know if this will be one of our five, but I bet this when I hit 14, I'm seated now back down to 13 and a half at some books. But some books have it up to 15. So I would chop around to this number. If you can get above a 14, I would take this number. Ugly, but right.”
TB 28, NYJ 24 — Tampa Bay beat the Jets 28-24, so New York's 4-point loss stays within the +14 (ESPN box score).
“Steelers, the Chiefs are five-point favorites on the road. My first instinct here, you bet the Bengals, five and a half right now. But is that a letdown spot? Are the Chiefs in a better position? Are they getting healthier? Are they really the dominant team now? It's tricky. I don't want to, am I out thinking myself? Yeah. So I'm right there with you. When I first saw this at seven and a half last week, I was like, wow, that's a great number to take that Bengals team at. And to me, I forget if you bet it with us, but the plus a thousand Bengals to win this division, it's minus 250 now. So you're looking for opportunities to hedge. You don't need to do it this week. It seems like it's going to come down to the Browns and the Bengals next week. So we'll deal with that next week, hedging that out. But for this week with the Bengals, I hate to do it, but I got to take the Chiefs. When I look at this matchup I love what Joe doing I love all the feel story everything about them right now But it late December and he just beat a backup quarterback on a banged Ravens team Now he's going against Mahomes and this Chiefs team that they've been here before. This is what we talked about early in the year. We could all bash and talk all the shit we want about the Chiefs. Mahomes has only ever lost to one quarterback in the playoffs, and that's Tom Brady. Okay? This man, if he gets to January, if he gets to February, I'm always going to back my homes unless he's going against Tom Brady. So looking at this matchup, this is a playoff football game. This is literally for the number one seat for this Chiefs team. Cannot see them let down here. Can see a big letdown spot from this Bengals team where they're looking ahead to next week. They know next week's the game they need to win. That's the game for the division. So I'm with you. First glance, I'm like, I like these points. I'm going to take these points. But the fact the pros have already bet it down, they move it across a key number. As long as it stays below six, I'll be taking the Chiefs.”
CIN 34, KC 31 — Cincinnati beat Kansas City 34-31, so the Chiefs lost outright, busting the -5 (ESPN box score).
“football team. The Eagles are flying high. They're three and a half point favorites on the road against a Washington football team whose play on the field and morale on the sideline is starting to reflect the dysfunction of the ownership. This team is a train wreck. That game on Sunday night was terrible. Another game I didn't watch. Then again, overreaction. Yep. Let's go, baby. Gotta bet. Washington football team, foxhole. Foxhole. We're the foxhole. Move your head off the beat. Let's climb down into the foxhole. Love it. I knew everyone was going to hate this one. That's why it's... Immediately as I saw this line, I was like, okay, this is probably going to be our foxhole bet because there might be only four of us getting down to this foxhole and fighting off the Germans here. It's a bad number for a bad team. You're never going to get the Eagles at a higher point in the season. I mean, if you hate this number, if you really do, just fade the Eagles first half. They've been one of the worst teams in the first half this season. So this is a number I bet early. It moved against me, moved from three and a half up to four. I bet it again. I'll be all over Washington this week. It's just simply a matchup and number-based kind of thing where the Eagles just had one of their biggest wins of the season. Now they're going on the road to play a team that just got blown out in a primetime game. We love this number every time. The only reason I'm not putting more money on it is just because of COVID stuff, but it feels like Washington football. teams had every player on their teams at COVID. So we should be good. So I'm betting it. I'm not going to say there's a hundred percent chances to be one of our five, but this is a game that”
PHI 20, WSH 16 — Philadelphia beat Washington 20-16, so Washington's 4-point loss busts the +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“You mentioned the Bears. They are hosting the Giants. The Giants are six and a half point dogs. This is a very weird game because the Bears are terrible. And I'm hoping that Justin Fields is on the shelf for the rest of the year. the Giants are terrible Mike Glennon doesn't really look like he belongs in the NFL uh he's at the other end of his career that Drew Locke is like neither of them look like they should be NFL quarterbacks and six and a half feels like a lot of points to be an underdog against a Bears team that just isn't very good I would agree with you in the sense that the Bears are I would have to look at my power rating sheet, but I believe I had them at number 28 or 27. They're one of my worst rated teams. The worst are the Giants. They are my lowest rated team right now in football. And it's simply because of the quarterback position. So I talked to a couple of professionals. They've come in on the Giants. They bet this number. I think it was at seven. They bet it down to six, six and a half of certain books. I will be on the other way. I love the Bears. I'm especially happy if this is Nick Foles. This is why I fucking hate Nagy and I can't wait for Nagy to be fired. How can he look his owner in the face and say, I started Andy Dalton over Nick Foles all season and those games Like in what world is Andy Dalton a better example or mentor for Justin Fields and Nick Foles would be Andy Dalton plays that game against the Seahawks there's zero chance he drives that field at the end of the game and scores that touchdown I mean he just the man isn't a winner he's like he is not a winner uh Nick Foles has proven time and time again he's a winner in clutch moments that whole playoff run he's just a big time quarterback So I like the Bears' momentum. Them coming home, I like everything about this. So the pros will be on the Giants. I'm going to be on the chalk at home with the Bears, as long as it's Nick Foles and not Andy Dolan. You sleep on your team too much, man. Your guy's defense is good. What is it? Is Roquan about to break the sacks record? Did he break the Bears' sacks record? Robert Quinn. Robert Quinn. 17 sacks. Something crazy like that. So I see the team playing for someone like him, and I see the team playing for a guy like Nick Foles, who he still believes he's a starter. That's why that game was so big for him last week. It was a kind of a prove it game for Nick showing these other teams. He still has. So to me, the giants have quit on their head coach. They've quit on their GM. I see a bears team. That's resilient. They don't care about Matt and I think they're playing for the guys inside that locker room. So I like these two teams going different directions right now. I like the arrow going up for the bears. And I like fading this giants team. I faded them last week. Yeah. That first half sucked. I was like, why the hell did I take the Eagles minus 10 when it was three, three, but then Jake from started throwing the ball. And then again, they don't have a quarterback. The Giants literally do not have a quarterback. So to me, as long as it stays under seven, I'll take this number.”
CHI 29, NYG 3 — Chicago beat the Giants 29-3, a 26-point margin, covering the -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“the vikings totally disappointed us speaking of what's that speak for yourself i was on the rams disappointed us in the fact that the the right number on that it should have been a touchdown a field goal game and everyone should have won their bets they should have everyone on the vikings at three and a half and the rams at two and a half they should have everyone should have won the vikings fucked it up six and a half point dogs against the packers feels like a good number though. I look at that and I'm not going to be overreactive to the Vikings at the end of the year. You mentioned the Packers and they're against the spread number this year. They are due for regression Obviously them and the Cowboys teams generally will be 500 or a little bit better or a little bit worse against the spread the packers and cowboys like combined or i don know like i think they lost six games total against the spread so and the packers you know this browns game was one of them but it feels like this is another spot where it could be a close game 100 the fact that we're the number one biggest podcast sports gambling podcast in the world i can't make this my simon says bet because I want to do it with the Vikings, but it's Kirk in prime time. We love this number. I mean, this is, you bet this every time. Divisional matchup this late in the season. These teams aren't that different. I know the record, you're looking on paper and go, well, the Green Bay is going to be the number one seed in the NFC. Vikings aren't going to make the playoffs. The Vikings were fucked from the get-go. We talked all preseason. That was the stinkiest win total all offseason. It was just sitting there at nine, nine and a half. Some books moved it back down to eight and a half. They were never going to hit that over. It felt like the fix was in coming into the year with this Vikings team. So to me, this is the typical everyone's off the Vikings. Everyone's going to be in on Green Bay. This number should be four, three and a half. We're getting three points. It could even go up to seven again. We'll get back at seven. That's even better. We love the Vikings here. It just sucks it's a primetime game. This is one o'clock in the afternoon in Green Bay. I'd be all in. This would be probably my biggest bet of the week. But because it's prime time, I got to remember it's Kirk Cousins in prime time. And historically, he always lets us down. So I had to bet this number. But just the fact that it's in prime time, I won't bet as much.”
GB 37, MIN 10 — Green Bay beat Minnesota 37-10, so the Vikings' 27-point loss busts the +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Give me Pittsburgh three and a half.”
PIT 26, CLE 14 — Pittsburgh beat Cleveland 26-14, a 12-point margin, covering the +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“So let's talk about the Bills. Plus 2.5 at the Pats. Still, I bet it, 2.5. Still like it. It's ugly. I think it's the right side.”
BUF 33, NE 21 — Buffalo beat New England 33-21, a 12-point margin, covering the +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“Let's talk about the Colts and the Cardinals. I loved the Cardinals at one and a half. Why don't I love them at one? Yeah, nothing's changed.”
IND 22, ARI 16 — Indianapolis beat Arizona 22-16, so the Cardinals lost outright by 6, busting the -1 (ESPN box score).
“Falcons and the Lions. The line was at seven before this past week. The look ahead line went down to four. Now back up to six. Six is as much of a key number as seven. So if you're getting it, you're not losing that much. if you don't get it at four because five is a dead number. So the Falcons beat bad teams. The Lions have no secondary. We don't know what's going on with Jared Goff. They're coming off a huge win. The Falcons coming off a huge loss. The Falcons at home. This feels like the right spot to invest in the Falcons, even at six. 100%. And again, we talked about that's why we like so much a five and a half because six is a key number. You're not losing much taking the six.”
ATL 20, DET 16 — Atlanta beat Detroit 20-16, a 4-point margin, short of the -6 Falcons needed to cover (ESPN box score).
“said, they beat up on bad teams. They've done it all year. We are 100% putting the Panthers plus 10 and a half against the Bucs. It's a foxhole bet. Everything is saying, take this good secondary against a quarterback who has struggled on the road,”
TB 32, CAR 6 — Tampa Bay routed Carolina 32-6, so the Panthers' 26-point loss busts the +10.5 (ESPN box score).
“Wise guys are loving the Bengals and you're kind of on the Ravens here. Yeah. Fuck those guys. We'll keep chasing that dream. Again this is not going to be in our contest because the Ravens has just been burning us never ending So I just going to take the value They play close games this is divisional matchup late in the year i told people in early december i take the dog i take the under 90 of these divisional games that's just what i'm going to do it's been working i mean we've already seen it since the calendar's turn it's been a lot of unders divisionally it's been a lot of dogs divisionally so i'm waiting especially to if i'm going to put more in it i kind of do want it to be Lamar again I love what this backup has done I watched the film he literally was staring down if it wasn't Andrews it was Hollywood Brown and that was it he would do two reads and then you'd take off so I love it I love his athleticism but I would just feel better with Lamar coming back so I'm taking the three now and hoping that Lamar comes back to really give you the value because”
CIN 41, BAL 21 — Cincinnati beat Baltimore 41-21, so the Ravens' 20-point loss busts the +3 (ESPN box score).
“I did better to three. The bets I've made so far, Buffalo plus two and a half, Carolina plus ten and a half, Miami plus three.”
MIA 20, NO 3 — Miami beat New Orleans 20-3, a 17-point margin, covering the +3 (ESPN box score).
“San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans. This can't be right. 49ers on the road, three and a half point favorites against the Titans. come on. I know this is like the Chargers all over again. Like, of course, we're supposed to take Tennessee here. Yeah, this is ridiculous. Probably one of the tougher teams in all football. They're just a bruising team and they dominate up front. And that's what's been huge for this 49ers team is they're one of the stronger teams on offensive line and D line. And that's how they dominate these teams. They impose their will. I hate it. I hate that we have to take Tennessee here. What we do. This is a classic. We're buying low in Tennessee. I make this line a pick. The fact you're getting three and a half points, it's crazy. It's the 49ers hype is as high as you can get. Atlanta gave away that game slash cover. They were, I believe, 0 for 16 inside the five-yard line. Again, let's process that. They got in there four times and came away with zero points inside the five-yard line. Woo! You can't really depend on those kind of things, especially with this Tennessee team. They just had arguably one of their worst games of the year. against Pittsburgh. That was a complete meltdown by them. Now they're coming home, short week, 49ers are feeling great. I don't know. Of course, we have to take Tennessee, but am I going to make this one of our five? I don't know, Chad, but I love Tennessee here. I have to take this number every time. Immediately, this is bright red siren, inflamed. Take this. This is crazy. The Titans This defense is so much better than we thought they were earlier in the year. The 49ers are a very physical team that have also been benefiting from playing some pretty bad defenses This is not a team that you can sort of make mistakes against The Titans are getting a little bit healthier at their skill positions People say I too low on the 49ers I get it They healthy They clicking on all the cylinders here But if you go by just the”
TEN 20, SF 17 — Tennessee beat San Francisco 20-17, a 3-point margin, covering the Titans +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Tell me why you think that. Well, actually, surprisingly, I love Arizona here. Colts team, it's inflated. If the Colts were plus three, plus three and a half, yeah, I'd be all over them. But the fact that it's moved down this number, the books are laying a trap. This feels incredibly trappy, just like the Patriots felt against this Colts. last week. Right now, your book, you have one and a half, which means you can tease this up to seven and a half. I just can't see why they'd be doing that. Same with the Patriots last week. It kind of felt like they knew people would be teasing these standalone games. And they're giving you a number to get you across a square number that like they know, like someone, especially me, if I see seven and a half, I love that number, the public even more so. So when I saw this line initially I immediately saw a trap. When looked at the numbers, I made this line minus three for the Cardinals. So I'm getting a point and a half for the Cardinals. I'll take the value, but I hate going against my Colts team because I don't know if you remember, this is like my all-in team of the season. So I'm just playing the position, the spots. The bookmakers had the Colts winning 10 wins before the season started and went all the way down to eight, seven and a half once Carson once got hurt to start the year they lose this game they win their next two they'll finish the year 10 and 7 right where the bookmakers had them this just feels like a scheduled boss for this colts team this kind of matchup arizona getting embarrassed against the lions i know matt mitchell wants us to fade fade hard uh kingsbury but can't can't do in this position um i'll either stay away i'll just take the cardinals cliff kingsbury all right well it's interesting because when i was first asking me the question and you said the Colts and then you said actually I love the Cardinals here this to me purely thinking about market logic was Cardinals Cardinals Cardinals”
IND 22, ARI 16 — Indianapolis beat Arizona 22-16, so the Cardinals lost by 6, busting the +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“100%. Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons. The Lions are, say, five and a half point underdogs right now. Oh, God. I hate taking Chuck. These lines have been so good to us, but we have to at this point. This line's kind of moved too far at this point. Jared Goff's on the COVID list I saw yesterday. Atlanta, they're bad. I'm not going to defend it anymore. People keep saying they beat a bunch of nobody teams. That's fair. This is a nobody team. Again, the lines, that was an incredible win last week. they're bad again they've been good against the spread they're just not a team that knows how to win so them coming off a big win like they just did we saw what happened when they went to go play denver they had a complete letdown the following week i guess we have to bank on it again but the fact that atlanta's coming off a bad loss a one that they gave away so many opportunities to score points i just can't see atlanta having such a bad week they got the veteran quarterback and Matt Ryan, who statistically has actually been really good this year. I know you don't think that because we saw him go over 16 inside the five yard line, but Matt's been good this year, especially on throws downfield. So against a team like Detroit, that their biggest weakness is that secondary. This is just a nice matchup for this Atlanta team. And I would take it, but again, it's hard to feel confident about it. You know what I mean, Chad? It's like, we just got burned so bad by Atlanta. I bet this one, I think Monday night, I'll bet it again a couple times this week, as long as it keeps moving my way. I just know the public's going to be coming”
ATL 20, DET 16 — Atlanta beat Detroit 20-16, a 4-point margin, short of the -5.5 Falcons needed to cover (ESPN box score).
“Yep. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers. This is interesting. The Panthers are 11 point home dogs to me when right when i saw this i knew this was gonna be one of my bets i'll do it as a foxhole let climb down into the foxhole there no no one else is gonna be joining us chad only a few people will bet this number but with all the injuries that the Buccaneers have had this plays right into the strength of this Carolina team Carolina has a really good secondary Now all I have to do is double AB, double Gronk. They don't have four net. They got Ronald Jones in that backfield. Godwin's out for the season. No one's really sure if Evan's going to play in this game. I would love to take Brady in this bounce-back position, but the fact that this line was 6.5-7, and now it's ballooned all the way up to 11, just because, again, Carolina didn't have a kicker in that game against Buffalo. They would have covered that number if they had a kicker. They had plenty of opportunities to cover that number, and they simply couldn't because they had to go for it on fourth down. I think we're going to get value here. If they would have covered last week Carolina, I can see this number being eight, maybe eight and a half, just because of teasers trying to keep Tampa Bay out of that value zone. Got no doubt Tampa will bounce back here. That's just too many points for such a banged-up Tampa team. So if you're a fan of this show and you bet these ugly games with us, you have to bet this one. This is an ugly number. It's divisional. They're at home. You have to take this number. If you're listening to this show and you don't bet this game and you like to bet, if you're deciding on Sunday, I'm going to put some money on NFL football, and this isn't a game you bet, then you've learned nothing. Let me give you some context. Right now, 82% of the bets are coming in on the Bucs, nearly 50% of the money coming in on the Panthers. This is going to be the pro Joe game of the week. Overvalued, undervalued, home dog of more than a touchdown. 80% of the bets coming in on the road favorite. All of these things, signals in the noise for the underdog. 100%. Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets.”
TB 32, CAR 6 — Tampa Bay routed Carolina 32-6, so the Panthers' 26-point loss busts the +11 (ESPN box score).
“Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots The Bills anywhere from one and a half to two and a half point dogs against the Patriots on the road Is this the week my friend where you buy into Mac Jones Again, I would love to keep crushing Mac Jones because Patriots fans are like the worst fan base in the world. But he's good, man. Like that was unbelievable what he did in that Colts matchup. Like everything I thought was going to happen did happen. He was looked like a rookie. he he got dominated uh scheme wise he just could not figure out that Colts defense and then he figured it out and he was very cool comic collective even the fact that he was getting punched in the mouth on multiple plays like he was literally getting hit popping right back up making big throws I fucking hate it man it's like crazy the Patriots go from Tom Brady to fucking Mac Jones it honestly really pisses me off but he's he's by far the best rookie like I can't there's no denying it this kid is tough as shit he's smart and he makes big throws and like That to me is one of the most important things in football. It's like, can you get in the mouth, throw a bad pick, then come out, throw a touchdown. That's how you know you can be in this league. You just get over it, move on to the next play. What the fuck? This number is too much. It's about to be plus three. What are we doing here? I have to take the bills. I have to put bills in teasers. I don't know. To me, this is like the bills, not Super Bowl, but this is what they've been thinking about for two weeks. They just want to get back at this Patriots team. so bad. They got embarrassed at home. It's, it's scaring me that it's moving this much. Cause that means a lot of professional money's coming on the Patriots and they obviously have a read on this, but the few games this week where it's a no brainer tweezer, it's this bill's number, this, this number great for teasing. You can tease it up to eight and a half right now. If you have a two and a half line of your book. I like this bill's number a lot, especially if it reaches three. What, what did you power rate it at? Pick. I just, I honestly didn't know what to really do with it. Like I gave a little bit of a home field advantage to this Patriots team.”
BUF 33, NE 21 — Buffalo beat New England 33-21, a 12-point margin, covering the +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“This will be by far one of my favorite unders of the week. I love this under so much. I always bet the unders anyway with the Chiefs at home, but this Chiefs defense, again, that Chargers game, the Chargers do whatever they want. They're going up and down the field. That was an indoor game in a controlled environment. This Chiefs team outdoors has just, for some reason, really held offenses down. So to me, this is a nice spot to take an under and a favor, which is rare. Usually I like taking the dog in an under position, but to me, that's such a big total, a big spread. What is it? I think I have to check. I think it was 48, 14 and a half. 10 points is not worth as much when it, if it was 40, maybe I'd be leaning more towards Pittsburgh, but there's enough wiggle room there that I like this chiefs in this position. I am shocked. That's a big, big number for a team that has a really good defense in the Steelers. And I think the chiefs are overrated, but yeah, I mean, the chiefs don't cover numbers like this. It goes against everything we've said all year about the chiefs. It's going to burn me but I made the number 12 and a half. It's 10. I think I'm getting two and a half points of value. No excuses. No explanation. Total on this game right now is 40 and a half.”
KC 36, PIT 10 — Kansas City beat Pittsburgh 36-10, a combined 46 points, busting the under 40.5 (ESPN box score).
“Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints. Miami is a three-point underdog. Dude, dude, give me the fucking Dolphins here. Love them. Love them. Love right there with you. Love this number. I took it at three and a half. The fact that the money and the tickets are coming in on the Saints and the numbers move down to three, that's best case scenario. but it means other pro groups have hit Miami as well. So love this number. As long as it stays above one and a half, two, which again, I talk all the time, two is a key number. I love Miami and I can see this being one of our five This makes no sense to me No it an overreaction to a Saints team that put up nine points Yeah that exactly what it is We got an interesting little lineup coming on here”
MIA 20, NO 3 — Miami beat New Orleans 20-3, a 17-point margin, covering the +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“we're definitely doing the chargers plus three and a half.”
KC 34, LAC 28 — Chiefs beat Chargers 34-28 in OT; Chargers lost by 6, busting the +3.5 spread (ESPN).
“because of who they've played. This line opened at one. It's now up to two and a half, even though all the tickets are coming in on the Patriots I struggling to see what the wise guy buddies of yours are seeing there So when I sent in my big bet on the Chargers I was just sending the Colts I wanted to make that one of the big bets, and I got rejected. So immediately I got pushed back. Yeah, from my own group. Again, I get a lot of shit talking about my lack of respect for the Patriots all the time by guys I work with. And it's not like they're Bostonians. They're just like, you don't get it with Bill. You don't get it. And it's like, I fucking get it, guy. I get it. It's just I'm trying to fade a rookie quarterback here and he keeps biting me in the ass because he's playing out of this world. But like you just said on paper, I believe the Patriots give the most explosive runs all season. We've seen it with this Colts team. Taylor's one of the most explosive runners in all football. He, I believe he leads the league and it's not even close of broken tackles in yards after contact. That's the perfect setup for this Patriots team. And again, Patriots have been great against the pass and the rush. Like, but against the run, they leave big holes up that middle because that kind of style where they're kind of coming off really heavy off the end. So, like, you just touched on it. The running thing is a big deal to me. And it's also a big deal to me. I told you just going against Mac on the road as a rookie. I'm getting under three points with a home team here. The Browns burned us last week with it. That was one of those that we talked about why two and a half has become so important. These missed extra points, little things like that. It can't happen again. That's just, we can't just let that dictate it. I still think we're getting a good number. It's under three. I still believe three is a key number. So to me, two and a half, that's all a Matic play. I feel really strongly about this one.”
IND 27, NE 17 — Colts beat Patriots 27-17; Indianapolis' 10-point margin covers -2.5 (ESPN).
“Like this line to me should have been minus one to Pittsburgh, just giving them the respect at home. The fact that we were getting two, still at one and a half in most books, love the value. The biggest determining factor in this game is going to be defenses. We've seen Tennessee have certain games where they really dominated some teams. Like again, that Chiefs game, Chiefs scored what, three points against them? I could say that says more about the Chiefs team, but I went back and watched that film. Tennessee, they got playmakers. They got guys that make plays, but they're also stupid. So that's what we're looking for. We're looking for a team that's young, inconsistent, to make mistakes against a veteran quarterback in Roethlisberger and all the weapons he has around them. And like you just touched on, Tomlin at home as a dog, coming off a loss as well. I know that really, that's a big trend too with Tomlin as a dog coming off a loss at home. I wonder what Mike Tomlin is going to say about that. Bring your A game today. You ain't new to this no more now. You know what I mean? My kids want to have a good Christmas. We have to do it. Even if we lose this bet, everything we're doing, all the numbers, everything points to you have to kind of make this bet. So it is one of those I had a little bit of pause because I liked it so much coming in. The fact that I got reinsurance from other pros, it makes me love it even more. So I'll definitely be on this Pittsburgh team.”
PIT 19, TEN 13 — Steelers beat Titans 19-13; Pittsburgh won outright, covering +1.5 (ESPN).
“We love the Broncos at minus two and a half.”
CIN 15, DEN 10 — Bengals beat Broncos 15-10; Denver lost outright, busting the -2.5 spread (ESPN).
“I'm taking the Bills when they AFC East and I'm going to be taking the Colts on the spot.”
The Bills finished 11-6 and clinched the AFC East division in 2021 (ESPN standings).
“Oh, yeah. Because we took that bye week, because we went five and oh, the top people averaged one and four last week. So we actually made up ground on that bye week. It was a good bye week by us. We're so good at this. Search around. I think FanDuel is up to three and a half at this point for this line with this Chargers team. Everyone in their grandmothers are going to be betting the Chiefs. We will happily take this number. We'll most likely take the under as well. As soon as it hit four and multiple books, I bet it. Drove out to Philly. I had my runner in AC, hit a couple books. We'll see. I might take a little road trip if I can't get enough money down, down to Maryland or something to get more money on this game because I just love that number. at plus four this Chargers team matches up very well with this Chiefs defense and offense the biggest thing I'm waiting on right now is what's going on with COVID all these teams are having COVID issues this is like a theme you see this week I not gonna be getting as much money down as I usually do because early on in the week because of COVID stuff we seen the NBA huge spike right now of COVID cases NFL had their biggest weekend of COVID cases the entire season. It's only getting worse. Like we already have the Browns having an outbreak this morning and a couple other teams. So between these different outbreaks and how we know this new variance is super spreader, I'm just not going to be betting a ton early in the week like I usually do. So unless you have the money to buy that positions, I wouldn't either. I'd keep doing what the public Lugia does, which is wait Saturday night, Sunday morning, make your bets.”
KC 34, LAC 28 — Chiefs beat Chargers 34-28 in OT; Chargers lost by 6, busting the +4 spread (ESPN).
“this game's really interesting the colts are now two and a half point favorites i've seen crazy numbers for this line opening some places this line open post weekend so not the look ahead line but post weekend colts minus one and it's been bet up two and a half foxhole Let's hop on in. Foxhole. Let's climb down into the foxhole. Fading Mac Jones again. Yeah, shocker. Mac Jones off of Biowe. Love everything about this match for the Colts team. They're a dominant run team playing against a weaker run defense. Inside, we've seen it with this Patriots team. They're better outside on the grass. They're not as good inside when you're playing against fast teams. I loved this number when it was at one. Now it's two and a half. Still think you're getting a fair number. Once it hits three and a half, maybe I start looking at the Patriots. But the way the numbers are going right now, the public's coming in heavy on the Patriots. I just don't know if the books will get up there. Maybe enough professional money will come on the Colts and they'll bet it up. But I've been betting this Colts team all year. I've lost one of my bigger bets of the year on them in this exact situation, but I have to keep doing it. You're having a really, really low bar on the Colts team. Everyone's looking at, I mean, again, I feel like 90% of the media is Boston fans, but it's never ending talk about how good this Boston team is, how good new England is, how the Patriots first Buccaneers Superbowl is a lock. They're the number one seed right now. I just don't, I think their frauds is the number one seed. I just don't buy this Patriots team. And I, maybe, maybe this is the game where I'll start giving them due credit. Cause they didn't earn in that, that Bill's game. They had a drop in the ends and the bill should have won that game. This here is as playoff a playoff matchup as you can get. This Colts team is a playoff team. To me, they're a top four team in the AFC. Let's see it. You're on the road with Mac. You can't hide him in this game. You're going to need him to make throws in this matchup. So as long as I'm getting under three with this home team and the Colts, I love this number.”
IND 27, NE 17 — Colts beat Patriots 27-17; Indianapolis' 10-point margin covers -2.5 (ESPN).
“The Washington football team visiting the Philadelphia Eagles, another pros-joes game with the majority of bets coming in on the Washington football team. the majority of the money coming in on the Eagles as four and a half point favorites right now. Love the Eagles. Rare time I'm taking a favorite, taking the chalk. But what I've read is this team has been hit by COVID. Washington football team has now is down three starters off their D-line, off COVID-related issues. We know what the Eagles want to do. They want to run the ball and control that front. Eagles whole offensive line is healthy coming off a bye week. This is a disaster matchup for this Washington football team. It really is. So I'm looking at it. I don't really care if it's Minshew or Hurts. It's kind of irrelevant to me at this point. I get why Eagles fans are going crazy for Minshew, but watching his all 22, rewatching that game, kid has so many bad habits. I still rather have Hurts as the quarterback. I feel safer with him, but I'm probably only going to downgrade it, maybe a point, point and a half between the quarterbacks. I don't think there's that much of a difference between Minshew or Hurts. So just looking at this number, as long as it stays under six, I love the Eagles in this matchup. Cowboys on the road at the Giants, who we have backed with faith and loyalty the past few weeks as big, big dogs.”
PHI 27, WSH 17 — Eagles beat Washington 27-17; Philadelphia's 10-point margin covers -4.5 (ESPN).
“Take Atlanta money line.”
SF 31, ATL 13 — 49ers beat Falcons 31-13; Atlanta lost outright on the moneyline (ESPN).
“the Seahawks visiting their touchdown favorites? This would be the exact spot in which you fade the Rams. They are coming off a huge win interdivision against a team that was number one quarterback looking good. Classic letdown spot against a division rival. Needle on the head. So it's such a classic letdown spot. Divisional matchup. We're getting seven points yeah Seahawks are terrible Russell Wilson hasn't looked right since he's come back from the hand surgery last two weeks though he hasn't been what he was the weeks before that he's kind of gotten back down to his rhythm he's not playing as scared and the run game we've seen it with Rashard Penny's was huge last week for me I believe two rushing touchdowns yeah when they get a run game going and he can rust can play off that play action that's that's the key to that team we've seen it with the Seahawks so like you just said that's seven I mean I wish I could make another Simon says, but I'd grab that now because I just can't see it last. And this is one of these numbers I could see dropping to six and a half in most books just because professionals are going to take that number. This is simply inflatable with what you just said. This Rams team looks so dominant against the Cardinals team. I do think the Rams are good. Do I think their seven-point favorite good against a divisional foe? Not at all. I made this line four and a half. So to me, you're getting two and a half, two points of value. I would take the number of the Seahawks right now. You know what, Simon? You're on the logo. If you say, we want to do a second Simon Says bet, we can do it. There's no rules. So is it a Simon Says part two? No, no. We're only going to do one a week.”
LAR 20, SEA 10 — Rams beat Seahawks 20-10; Seattle lost by 10, busting the +7 spread (ESPN).
“points now all right well if if the browns are getting that much professional love then it's one that we have to consider for our top five. We've clearly just talked about it. So I don't think there's anything more that we have to say about it. Yeah, we'll just put an icing on it where if you can get the minus two and a half, just take it now.”
24-22 — Browns beat Ravens 24-22; Browns win by 2, busting -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“One game I know we can count on. One game. Very interesting. Washington football team. Was it four? Now at four and a half. We love that.”
20-27 — Cowboys beat Washington 27-20; Washington busts +4.5 (ESPN box score).
“to a sports book what was that Tuesday night we got dinner after we got down I bet again on the Giants but on their money line”
21-37 — Chargers beat Giants 37-21; Giants moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“really bad teams for me I'm either taking the Saints or staying away it's a rare time I'm gonna take road chalk and take the favorite but this just feels like the pros are stepping into a trap here taking this Jets team. It's a little bit like they saw Zach Wilson play a great half against that Eagles team. They're like, you know what? Maybe this kid isn't as bad as he looked. Without really realizing that second half, once the teams adjusted and schemed against him, he could not do a single thing. So the Saints, to me, that's one of the better coaching staffs in football. They've been reeling. They haven't won in weeks. This feels like a Sean Payne special where he just dominates a bad team. That is the all opposite of what we've talked about on Tuesday. Yeah. Yeah, definitely one of those where I was waiting on the injury news, and I felt like I liked the Jets coming into it. But if they're getting Kamara back, they're getting their own line back. To me, this is a no-brainer bet taking that chalk with the favorite here in the Saints. Even at five and a half, do you wait? No, to me, because the six is such a key number now. I took the five and a half.”
30-9 — Saints beat Jets 30-9; Saints cover -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“But I personally will be betting Houston. [20:52] I'll take that trend that teams just lose the following week after playing the 49ers, [20:56] and I'll bet their money line.”
13-33 — Seahawks beat Texans 33-13; Texans moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“So let's start off with, it is gross this week. ATL, Atlanta Falcons. That nine's moved down from plus three. You're not getting any great value anymore in the number. It's a public dog. We don't care. We're throwing their money line in last week after a bad loss. Them, Washington. I won't make people put Detroit in because we don't know what's going on with the flu. I'm seeing that line all up to plus 10 now. Detroit. That's, God, I want to take that money line so bad. But if we don't know who they're, if they're going to have any starters, if we don't know if their offense lines will be healthy, I can't make you bet that on Thursday. But Sunday, that might be one of those I throw in with Detroit if they're healthy. Yeah, we have Atlanta right now. We have Washington football team. We're going to throw the Giants in there. Wait and see if the Bengals become a big plus number. We're going to put that in there as well. We'll get Bengals as a home dog. I know the Joe Burrow thing, but at that point, you're getting good value there. I don't know when I would take Jimmy G as a big road favorite. So you can get plus 110. I really like that with this Bengals team. Let's throw the bills in there. We just talked about it. The Bucs are on the most public sides this week. You want to go against the public. We talk about it all the time. When there's a team that's especially someone that – we talk all the time. The public does stupid shit. The dumbest thing they do is they pick one team and they'll make them in all their parlays, all their teasers. That's what the Bucs feel like this week. It feels like everyone's going to throw them in all their bets. So that's another one I like. So that's the fourth one. Our final one. Chad just talked about it. He doesn't love it. It's the Rams. You're giving me a plus number divisional matchup. This game is going to be a coin flip. It'll be fun to end the week with our Moneyline Parlay on a Monday. So that's going to be the first time we're doing it. I like throwing that the end of the week Rams team in there.”
Round-robin moneyline parlay busts: Falcons beat Panthers 29-21; Washington lost 20-27 to Cowboys; Giants lost 21-37 to Chargers; Bengals lost 23-26 (OT) to 49ers; Bills lost 27-33 (OT) to Buccaneers; Rams beat Cardinals 30-23 (ESPN box scores).
“this is a bet I always make I always bet the under It doesn matter if they hit the over five [7:36] straight years. I'm just going to keep riding this trend.”
NAVY 17, ARMY 13 — Navy beat Army 17-13; combined 30 points is well under the 36 total (ESPN).
“we love Minnesota this position. So I'll be betting it. Maybe we'll change my mood Thursday morning because I just can't even think about putting the Vikings in right now. But we'll be on it, especially if it's at minus three. That's a great number to take with this Minnesota team that we saw.”
36-28 — Vikings beat Steelers 36-28; Vikings cover -3 (ESPN box score).
“Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs. Chiefs are nine point favorites here. This is a pros Joe's game right now. Right now. I think I love the Raiders here. I don't nothing. You know, when we went into the Broncos Chiefs game, we were saying to ourselves, the Chiefs can't cover big numbers. there's nothing from that game that makes me think they can like 22 to nine that that score is not reflective of what i would look at in the box score and that's what you have to do as a better you have to look beyond the final score to me this still feels like a raiders play yeah every little thing had to go right for the chiefs cover that number they had the pick six they had the 20 play 11 minute drive by denver for zero points which i think someone posted this first time it happened since 2015. Nothing's going to change here. We'll keep even if the public's riding again, we'll take the public dog and we'll take Las Vegas Raiders here.”
9-48 — Chiefs beat Raiders 48-9; Raiders bust +9 (ESPN box score).
“[19:24] So this is one of these games where I'll be on the plus four.”
20-27 — Cowboys beat Washington 27-20; Washington busts +4 (ESPN box score).
“So this is one of these games where I'll be on the plus four. [19:26] I'll be on the money line. [19:27] I'll be back in this Washington team.”
20-27 — Cowboys beat Washington 27-20; Washington moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“Got to bet on the bounce back this week on the road 10 and a half points against a Chargers team that we think they good We think they overvalued of course like them letting the Cincinnati Bengals come back That's this Chargers team. They just don't have I don't know how to describe it. They don't have the coaching yet, maybe or whatever it is. They're just not they're just not built yet to be a 10 point favorite team. They're not one of these top tier teams in the whole NFL. So we'll take the Giants. We'll just wait and see if we can get even better number.”
21-37 — Chargers beat Giants 37-21; Giants bust +10.5 (ESPN box score).
“So sitting here at minus three, I'll take Tampa.”
27-33 — Buccaneers beat Bills 33-27 in OT; Buccaneers cover -3 (ESPN box score).
“this has to be Simon says Simon says take the Cardinals right now the Cardinals are two and a half point favorites no Simon says take the Rams oh my goodness yeah oh my goodness my head is spinning I can't believe you're saying that everyone hates this bet a couple pros I talked they hit this number right away when it touched three for a little while it's back down to two and a half at most books we love taking the rams in this position the cardinals already beat up and dominated this rams team revenge factor everything give me give me the rams here um matthew stafford he horrible against teams above 500 Like absolutely terrible Break those demons Matthew Stafford Get us this cover and win The public is going to be coming in very, very hard on this Arizona team. Everyone's teasers, money line bets, everything's going to be tied to this Arizona team on Monday night. We got to do it. We got to take the Rams in this position. So, yeah, this will be my Simon Says bet. My only caveat is wait to get the three. I do love the two and a half.”
30-23 — Rams beat Cardinals 30-23; Rams cover +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“since we spoke we liked the giants at three and a half when daniel jones was the quarterback mike glennon now the quarterback the giants shot up to five and a half immediately get bought down to four and a half we discussed this before you know as we were coming on the air still like the Giants here. Can't see any reason why I shouldn't like the Giants.”
9-20 — Dolphins beat Giants 20-9; Giants bust +4.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm not feeling as good anymore about the money line because apparently Brady just has Matt Ryan's number, but 11 points now in divisional game.”
17-30 — Buccaneers beat Falcons 30-17; Falcons bust +11 (ESPN box score).
“So nothing's changed. Love the number. So happy it moved up. I was really happy to get it. Some books had touched five at one point. I love that. You nailed it. We have to take Pittsburgh here as a home divisional dog against a team where Lamar's had multiple interviews. Now we talked about being six affected him. He doesn't feel that he has the same strength. He says he was tired at the end of the game, which has never really happened for him. It's only happened when he came back from COVID. I know that wasn't COVID related. He was just sick the other week. You guys just had major stuff going on, though. He just hasn't been consistent. He hasn't been at practice consistent. that's going to catch up to him. And, you know, you really did nail on the head. If it's three, if it's more than three, like we were talking a three and a half, we would have taken it. Now it's four and a half. Now it's four. We still love it. We're still going to take it. So nothing's changed. We're going to be on Pittsburgh this Sunday.”
20-19 — Steelers beat Ravens 20-19; Steelers cover +4 (ESPN box score).
“So nothing's changed. We still love the Bills at minus three.”
10-14 — Patriots beat Bills 14-10; Bills lose outright, busting -3 (ESPN box score).
“Let's go to the Sunday slate for our money line round, Robin. People are going to hate it, but we got to do it. giants with the backup quarterback on the road. Love it. Lions haven't won a game yet this year. I'm betting it this week. I know Chad hates it. I'm doing it. It's, it's feels like it's that week. No one's going to be doing it. That's why we should be doing it. Uh, well it has felt every single week, like the lines of the team. I could see it. I could see it. I could see it. And this is the week where nobody thinks they can see it. They've just been so bad. Yeah. You see where I'm coming from now that's where we have to do it so we got Giants Lions me and Chad touched on I like the Chargers I know it's short now it's only down to um plus 150 still like it still think you're gonna get value in their mount the run Robin stay away from the Jaguars I'll be doing that one personally you can stay away I'll throw that out Washington football team they're a short one too they're this it feels safe though plus 125 and they cap it out how do we not go Steelers I was You have to go steal the Ravens. That feels like a great fifth option there.”
Round-robin moneyline parlay busts: Giants lost 9-20 to Dolphins; Lions beat Vikings 29-27; Chargers beat Bengals 41-22; Washington beat Raiders 17-15; Steelers beat Ravens 20-19 (ESPN box scores).
“I will be taking the charges. I'll take the three and a half. This is as high as you're going to get on this Bengals team. They just absolutely dominated Pittsburgh. We're getting three and a half points in a matchup where like Herbert's never going to be out of it. Like he is always going to be in it. That game last week, we talked about that was a divisional matchup. That defensive layout was just perfect matchup for against what Herbert wants to do. He's getting a good matchup here against the Cincy team. So three and a half, this number's been a bit up to. We'll take it. It's hard not to take it when this matchup, both these teams are pretty much even. I know that you look at the record this season, it says otherwise. But to me, this is this is a good number. It should be three. It's three and a half just because the public is coming heavy on Cincy. So we'll take the value of Chargers. But this won't be one of my best five.”
41-22 — Chargers beat Bengals 41-22; Chargers cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Exactly. You just said that we like, we have to take this number. The Vikings, if they win, they win by three or they maybe even the games that they're dominating. They always let the teams back in. These two have already played this season. It was a close matchup that time around. Nothing's changed here. We have a team with Detroit on extended rest. So they've had 11 days of prep for this game. We'll take the seven, but Detroit's one of these teams. Like I never feel great backing it because I know awful golfers. So a big injury news. We need to know more about Swift. That's a big deal for this Detroit team. He's kind of what makes them go, but you're giving me a touchdown against the Vikings. I'm going to bet it regardless. It's not one of my favorite bets I'm making this week, but I have to bet it just because of that. That's a good number to take against this Minnesota team.”
29-27 — Lions beat Vikings 29-27; Lions cover +7 (ESPN box score).
“let's climb down into the foxhole are you foxhulling me right now i am i love the giants so much in this oh my god explain it to me we got a road team they love to cover on the road danny danny dimes let's go on the road this number i loved it when i was at three and a half sadly like you just said the professionals have betted down to three still love it at that number that's a key number, but we're looking at a matchup here that you can look at the total. It's very low. I think the bookmakers are telling you these are two very good defenses. Tua has been better. Him and Waddle, that connection has been pretty outstanding, but coming to this matchup, I like the shutdown side of this Giants team. We saw what they did against this Eagles team. They're able to get pressure with their front four and let their cornerbacks kind of shut down the receivers. So I know that the Giants got a little lucky. They probably should have lost to the Eagles. They had two Eagles had two dropped touchdowns in the final couple seconds of the game. Doesn't matter. This number doesn't really reflect that. The public's still going to be coming in heavy on Miami. So hopefully it gets back up at three and a half, but I love it at three.”
9-20 — Dolphins beat Giants 20-9; Giants lose outright, busting +3 (ESPN box score).
“10 and a half. Buccaneers, 10 and a half point favorites. Why, why is my first instinct on this to bet the Falcons? You have to go ahead and bet them, bet the money line right now. I hate it. We have to do it though. Just absolutely gross. Like again, people are gonna hate our bets this week this is one of these that's like this will probably be one of our five come uh come sunday we're like divisional matchup that was a huge win for this Buccaneers team we talked about they haven't been good on the road this year they hadn't covered that was their first cover of the year um on the road so we're looking at a a team that just played”
17-30 — Buccaneers beat Falcons 30-17; Falcons moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“texans colts are uh eight and a half point favorites on the road at the texans god damn it god people are gonna see a pattern this this week's money line around robin's gonna be so ugly i love it and this is gonna be one of those teams houston baby we 100 have to take houston yeah you love this number uh it was up at nine nine and a half the pros have already betted down eight, eight and a half at certain books. We love this number. We will be on Houston. This is, they let us down last week, no doubt. That hurt bad, but you got to move on. We got to keep pushing forward. This is just too high of a number for a divisional matchup”
0-31 — Colts beat Texans 31-0; Texans bust +8.5 (ESPN box score).
“Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears. The flying Cardinals, fully healthy at the Bears, minus seven and a half. We like to fade teams off bye weeks here. It's been good to us all season. We will continue that trend. People, seven and a half, Bears team at home. Take this number. I know how great the Cardinals are. We're probably walking right into a sharp trap. Don't care. You have to take the Bears at home against a Cardinals team that we don't know we're getting from Kyler. Kyler's coming back off an injury that's kept him out for multiple weeks at this point. So I'm expecting them to be rusty. I expect them not to play as well outside in the cold, frigid air of Chicago. So seven and a half home team, the Bears. We have to take it. It doesn't really matter either. But Danny Dolan, him and Justin Field aren't that different. If anything, Danny Dolan's a little better. But we like the upside of Fields. Like at any moment he could take off for a 90 yard touchdown run. So it doesn't matter to us. He was a quarterback for the bears. You just take this number. This doesn't feel like a top five to me.”
22-33 — Cardinals beat Bears 33-22; Bears bust +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams. The Jaguars who are 10 point dogs on the road. This is like a kind of a pass for me. I will be all over the Jags, all over the Jags money line. Yeah, the Rams, we don't know what's wrong with Stafford. Stafford can't hit open guys two feet in front of them. They put out all these ailment of all of his injuries before the game. We kind of knew about it going in. That's why I love Green Bay going into that matchup. I was just like, you're getting a banged up Stafford outdoors. This guy's an indoor quarterback. Man, something's wrong with this Rams team. So if we're going just fading all the negativity, everything, all the bad juju that's going on right now, I love the Jags. The only worry about right now, the Jaguars is Urban Meyer might have a foot out the door. Like by the time this airs, he could already be in Notre Dame as a head coach. So that's a little scary betting the Jaguars this week. But I'm betting them like you're giving me way too many points with a team that they're bad. No doubt the Jaguars are bad, but their defense isn't terrible. Like their defense kind of keeps them in game. So Stafford's really slacking right now. I could get kind of the same matchup where the Bills just kind of gave that game to the Jaguars. And we could get the same thing from Stafford here. Yeah, take the Jaguars, you take the points, and I'll probably have their money line a couple of money line round Robbins.”
7-37 — Rams beat Jaguars 37-7; Jaguars moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers Ravens. Again, there a disparity here Two and a half to three and a half oh god yeah no no Simon Says Pittsburgh no love it why explain it to me what are you hearing why would I do this because I explained to you last week that we had to we're supposed to stay away wait a week This is when you take Pittsburgh. We have the Ravens offer primetime win. Everyone's out on Pittsburgh without realizing this is just a classic divisional matchup. Whoever wins this game is going to win by three. The bookmakers are giving us a gift at three and a half. This is such a pro number. The public's going to come in so heavy on the Ravens as well. I love this game so much. So if your book still has three and a half, maybe you're lucky. You can find a four out there. Grab it. Grab it right now. But just wait. This number will keep getting bet up. We got like COVID stuff going on. I think Watt might've got put on the COVID list. Just, just wait. You're going to get a good number of this Pittsburgh team. I love this matchup. It's gross, dude, but I'm telling you, this is, you have to make these kinds of bets in December. Like this is, the bookmakers know exactly what they're doing, laying this trap. Like, look at you, you're squirming.”
20-19 — Steelers beat Ravens 20-19; Steelers cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“All right. Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs. We love the Broncos. They're 10 point underdogs at the Chiefs right now. Oh, the Denver Broncos. Oh my God I hate this one It like the meeting of two perfect storms Teddy Bridgewater underdog on the road playing against Andy Reid team off a bye week What the hell do we do here It so hard I will tell you right now that there a little bit of a reversal going on here The Broncos are getting the majority of the bets. Yeah. But the money is coming in on the Chiefs. Wow, that's actually shocking. So yeah, the pros are looking the same way as me. It's Andy Reid off a bye week. Like, I hate betting against him off a bye. It's the worst. So I'm going to be taking Teddy. You're giving me 10 points. I'll walk right into this trap. I can't not do it. Too many points in divisional matchup. I'm an idiot. This feels like the bookmakers are telling us to take the Chiefs, but I cannot do it. That's crazy for them to get that many points. They only scored 19 points against a Dallas defense that gave up like 35, 36 points or 33 points to the Raiders. So I don't know. I don't really understand all the cheap respect here. Maybe Teddy's more hurt than we know. That could be part of the reason this line is so big, but we don't know that as we sit here on Tuesday. So to me, you're getting a great number with Teddy. I'll be taking this 10 points. That defense, it's just, they're solid. They've been solid all year.”
9-22 — Chiefs beat Broncos 22-9; Broncos bust +10 (ESPN box score).
“Mitch, we'll play that Bills music. Yeah, Buffalo's happening now. We're on the moon now. We're all in on the bills. You love the bills here. What a gift. Yeah. What a treat from the sports books. People forget. OK, it's all hype week right now for Mac Jones. Go on your phones right now as you're sitting here, people, and go look at who the Patriots have beaten during this historical run they're on. No, they're not beating good teams. And the Bills, I know they've had their issues this year. Josh Allen hasn't really looked like what we talked about he did last year. And we talked about it. It's his footwork. He's not throwing on balance. He's not setting his feet underneath him when he's throwing. That's why he's throwing so many interceptions. God, I love this matchup so much. This is the best time to take the Bills. Like the Patriots, we've been trying to catch them on this run they're on here. Like last week, I really had to convince you to take them. I understood why you were like, no, this is why you take Tennessee. This is so blah, blah, blah. And I just kept saying to you, Tennessee doesn't have the weapons to really compete in this game. The Bills do. And the Bills, this is interesting it's come down this much because that means professionals are coming in on the Patriots. That's not public moving that number on the Patriots. That's pros moving that number. So maybe that might give me a little hesitance to like really hammer this bill's number, but wow. Primetime game. You have the more veteran team in the bills at home. Love it. I love it. Love it. Love it. So I will be all over this bill as a minus three. The difference in your confidence level today versus a month ago is insane.”
10-14 — Patriots beat Bills 14-10; Bills lose outright, busting -3 (ESPN box score).
“So the fact that it is Andy Dolan, yeah, I feel good about taking the Bears. I like this number at minus three and a half. As long as he's below four or at four, that's a good number to me on this game.”
16-14 — Bears beat Lions 16-14 on Thanksgiving, only a 2-point win that fails to cover Chicago's -3.5 spread (ESPN Week 12 schedule).
“So, you know, I do think this line will get up higher with the Bills. So if you get the four right now, I would definitely take that number. Well, look, we're taking the trend with the Bills.”
31-6 — Bills beat Saints 31-6 on Thanksgiving, a 25-point win that easily covers Buffalo's -4 spread (ESPN Week 12 schedule).
“rust and sloppy in that game his first game back from the injury so nothing's changing I love this number I'm so happy it's at two and a half that's great the public will keep betting the Jets and hopefully it's Flacco. I would bet it now, but I would also wait to bet on Decent. I don't have to make sure you know who the quarterback is because I do think I can make it a close game with these other quarterbacks besides Flacco. But just looking on paper, this number should be four. I have to take Houston in this matchup.”
21-14 — Jets beat Texans 21-14; Houston lost outright, busting the -2.5 spread (ESPN Week 12 schedule).
“I mean I love the Giants It crazy Divisional game you have to take it though This is such a pro number Same reason we took the Vikings last week Unfortunately we didn get the Vikings at a three which would have been great because at the end of that game we like all right this is either team going to win this game by field goal. But here you're getting a gift for the Giants. It's up to four now. It's going to be three and a half, a lot of books. You bet this number. You got to bet this number every time.”
7-13 — Giants beat Eagles 13-7, a 6-point win that covers New York's +4 spread (ESPN Week 12 schedule).
“They beat them outright. People do think the Colts are a good team. So, how can we not take this number with this Colts team plus three? That's just, it could be a little bit of a sharp trap, but I'm happy to walk into it. I think we're getting a great number here with this.”
38-31 — Buccaneers beat Colts 38-31; Indianapolis lost outright by 7, busting the +3 spread (ESPN Week 12 schedule).
“I got the Broncos two and a half.”
13-28 — Broncos beat Chargers 28-13 outright, which covers Denver's +2.5 spread (ESPN Week 12 schedule).
“We'll do a money line around Robin just because people love it. It's been cashing for them. Yep. Now, this is going to be as good as it was the last couple weeks, obviously, because we've got a bunch of short home dogs. So let's start off with a very tasty Giants at home. Then we'll go with the Colts at home. Go with the Broncos at home. I'll take Minnesota on the road because we just said that seems like a coin flip kind of game. I really want to put Pittsburgh in there Should we just do that Yeah All right That a good five Yep All right We kind of nailed it It a Tuesday show We giving a lot of we giving people a lot to wait for it Chew on over the Thanksgiving holiday I going to stab your ass with this”
Round-robin busts: Giants ML won (13-7 over Eagles) and Broncos ML won (28-13 over Chargers), but Colts ML lost (31-38 to Buccaneers), Vikings ML lost (26-34 to 49ers), and Steelers ML lost (10-41 to Bengals) — three of five legs missed (ESPN Week 12 schedule).
“I'm still in on Atlanta plus six and a half.”
25-0 — Patriots routed Falcons 25-0; Atlanta lost outright, busting the +6.5 spread (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“So divisional games, that's what we're banking on here. You kind of have these teams that just match up really well with each other inside these divisions. And that's how I look at this Vikings team. I just think to myself, it's not going to be fun. Me and Chad hate betting on Kirk Cousins because it's never a good time. But this is a pro line. We have to bet this number. Got to. Got to. That'll be in the contest for sure. We'll get it at two and a half. Again, if you're going to bet it, it's now at one. You might as well wait and see what happens on Sunday if the public comes in on the Packers.”
31-34 — Vikings beat Packers 34-31, a 3-point win that covers Minnesota's +2.5 spread (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“i'm with you on it all right this other one that i love and that i think will definitely be in our five. Colts plus seven, plus seven and a half at the bills. Yeah. The seven and a half was a treat down to seven. It's going to be down to six and a half, probably in most books by the weekend. I think I got the Colts at seven and a half on Tuesday. Yeah. And like, I hit a couple of books at seven and a half, but obviously our good friends, our partners here, it's where it's stuck at seven for a while. Fan duel. I think they eventually got to seven and a half and then I got bet down.”
41-15 — Colts routed Bills 41-15, covering Indianapolis's +7 spread easily (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“Love, love, love, love this matchup here. Walking into a Thursday. I, as soon as I saw this line open, I knew it was going to be bet up. So I didn't even touch it. Got to seven, seven and a half at some offshore books. Atlanta. You know the drill, Chad. We've been down this road too many times with Atlanta. They kill it one week, they fall apart the next week, and now they're back again. Everyone's off this line. I think shit was like four or three. Now it's all up to seven, seven and a half. I mean, what else can we do here? Home dog, getting no money, no bets. Every time, Chad, we take Atlanta here.”
25-0 — Patriots routed Falcons 25-0; Atlanta lost outright, busting the +7 spread (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“So it's a fair number, but I just think you're getting too much value in a divisional matchup with this Houston team at 10.5.”
22-13 — Texans beat Titans 22-13, a 9-point win that covers Houston's +10.5 spread (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“happening to even get to that number two. So sitting here again with Tennessee, like Chad just talked about, we want to fade them. Everything is going their way. This Houston team's coming off a bye. I know statistically this year, ATS teams have been bad off byes. I feel like everything you just said so right. Taylor needed that extra time. He was just rusty in that Miami game. So giving him more time, giving the time for the Houston team to get healthy. Tennessee is not healthy. They have a lot of injuries adding up. That's what's been like, you know, as much as I want to bash Tennessee Titans, Tannehill on paper, like statistically, having an incredible season. One of the best players against the Blitz. one of the best players against double coverage. Everything he's doing is really, really smart this season. So it's a fair number, but I just think you're getting too much value in a divisional matchup with this Houston team at 10.5. That's why I want you to take it now because I think it's going to go down to 10 and put a little bit on the money line.”
22-13 — Texans won outright 22-13 over the Titans, so the Houston moneyline cashes (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“Yeah And again I having them all This is a good number to have in teasers too You tease this up to seven and a half That why it weird to give you the one and a half hook Like you could be right I could be walking right into a trap here but I got to do it This feels like a good number”
29-40 — Eagles beat Saints 40-29; New Orleans lost outright, busting the +1.5 spread (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“It's seven and a half.”
41-15 — Colts routed Bills 41-15, covering Indianapolis's +7.5 spread easily (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“Give me the Colts on the money line.”
41-15 — Colts won outright 41-15 over the Bills, so the Indianapolis moneyline cashes (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“blind moves all the way to minus four and a half for the Vikings they lost outright so give me two and a half with this Minnesota team at home against the Packers where say what you want about that Packers Seahawks game Rodgers didn't win that I mean I guess he kind of did win that game that was more about Russell Wilson just could not get it right the guy just again we talked about he hit pins in his hands that I hate myself for not betting that under like that was just such an easy under bet. And for some reason I didn't touch it. Coming in this week, I'm not making this mistake where I'm going to be scared of Rogers because they have been a covering machine. We have to look for the other way, Chad, right? We always talk about regression. This is such a perfect opportunity for a regression spot for the Supreme Bay team. You're taking Minnesota at home, two and a half. Everyone thinks, all the public's going to think, I'm getting a great number here with Rogers. Getting them only two and a half. Just needs to win by a field goal. Give me the Vikings.”
31-34 — Vikings beat Packers 34-31, a 3-point win that covers Minnesota's +2.5 spread (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“I just some schmuck sitting in the middle of Connecticut Yeah but every now and then Chad you know You know every now and then So I not going to force it in because there other dogs I like better but I be taking the Jags I be taking their money line just on the fact that the 49ers are feeling great This is a great letdown spot.”
30-10 — 49ers beat Jaguars 30-10, so the Jacksonville moneyline busts (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“actually never been more convinced that the Jags are the right side. In fact, I'm making a money line parlay right now with the Texans, the Colts and the Jags. I'm making an AFC money line parlay.”
Parlay busts: Texans ML won (22-13 over Titans) and Colts ML won (41-15 over Bills), but Jaguars ML lost (10-30 to 49ers), so the 3-leg parlay fails on one leg (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“Take the 49ers while you still can get the three and a half This is a prime prime time to take this number”
SF 31, LAR 10 — 49ers beat Rams 31-10 on Monday Night Football; San Francisco won by 21, covering +3.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Can't not do it. This is another trend for you, friends from our friends at BetLabs. 9-0, the Saints as a road dog, their last nine. So come on. I mean, how can we not take the Saints here? This is also, it's the overreaction game of the week, right? And the Titans are so overvalued in the market based on the wins they've had the past couple of weeks. They beat the Colts in dramatic fashion with some flukiness. They beat the Rams in dramatic fashion, meaning Derrick Henry is out. They're big dogs. They're on the road. They're picking off Mad Stafford left and right. Yeah. There's some high variance in that game. They didn't win because they were a well-rounded team. and the Saints defense is just so good. You could argue it's probably one of the best defenses in the NFL. And so to me, you've got Sean Payton, who's amazing as an underdog. I listened to Stucky and Raban on the Action Network podcast this morning. Sean Payton, the second most profitable coach against the spread coming off of a loss since 2003. like that like everything screams this this number's moved it was at three now it's a two and a half in a lot of places i still better to two and a half this could be that game it could be that colts game from a few weeks ago but how do you not love this yeah and i honestly would have this is being one of my bigger bets of the week if it was not for the late ad of kamara to”
TEN 23, NO 21 — Titans beat Saints 23-21; New Orleans lost by 2, covering +2.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Colt McCoy, 10 point favorite. Come on. That's, that's insane. Come on, man. Against this defense in Carolina. I mean, you got to take Carolina.”
ARI 10, CAR 34 — Panthers beat Cardinals 34-10; Carolina won outright, easily covering +10 (ESPN scoreboard).
“What about the Moneyline Parlay? I'd be tempted on the Panthers here. I don't hate it. So I was going to go with the Jets just because they're at home. And I like that it's a bigger number. I know the Bills, it's a divisional game. They need it. But that's even more reason. I just their wheels are spinning right now. I just like the way the Jets have been playing. So I'll throw the Jets in there. Cal will have Carolina in his. So right now I have this is actually a good big, big week for this one. If this hits, it'd be a really nice payday. I got the Jets. I got the Washington football team. I got the Saints. I got the Raiders and I got the 49ers.”
Parlay busts: Jets ML lost (Bills 45, Jets 17); Washington ML won (Washington 29, Bucs 19); Saints ML lost (Titans 23, Saints 21); Raiders ML lost (Chiefs 41, Raiders 14); 49ers ML won (49ers 31, Rams 10) — not all legs won, so the parlay loses (ESPN scoreboard).
“Man, people are all in on this team. Perfect time to come in and take this Saints team. You're getting plus three right now. I think we'll be able to get three and a half, too, if it keeps going up. People are going to keep betting this Tennessee side. So I'll grab the three now that it's there, but I'll grab it even more if it gets up to three and a half. I love it. I love it. I love it. I love that we're in the foxhole. I love taking the Saints.”
TEN 23, NO 21 — Titans beat Saints 23-21; New Orleans lost by 2, covering +3 (ESPN scoreboard).
“buffalo bills at new york jets this is a 13 point spread right now j e t s jets jets jets i mean mike white this guy looks great i that's why i can't believe he's coming back he should just retire after that first drive he had against the colts like people are all in on him i want him as my quarterback, as my backup, at least on my team. Like this guy looks like a quarterback. The Bills are reeling. Usually I be on the Bills in a bounce back spot here I don want to fade Mike White Like if he would have played that full game against the Colts I have no doubt the Jets are going to cover that 10 and a half Like that kid drove right down the field No problem His opening drive So it sounds like they going to sit Zach Wilson another week. It's going to be Mike White again. We're going to get burned somehow, aren't we? By being all in on this guy, but at 13 and a half points, give me that cushion. Even at 13 points, I'm still happy with the numbers. So this stays above 12 and a half, stays above 10. All those key numbers, I love taking this Jets team.”
NYJ 17, BUF 45 — Bills beat Jets 45-17; New York lost by 28, busting +13 (ESPN scoreboard).
“But I love Green Bay. I'm going to love Green Bay's money line on the simple fact that if you're giving me plus 250”
KC 13, GB 7 — Chiefs beat Packers 13-7; Green Bay lost outright, busting the moneyline (ESPN scoreboard).
“We talked about it a little bit. Herbert might be banged up. Supposedly he's hurt. This line keeps moving down with the Seagulls. It's down to plus one and a lot of offshore books, which I know a lot of professionals use. And they move numbers. And I kind of take notice when I see that stuff. If they bet this down from two and a half to down to plus one, even though when I check the action app, it says all the money and all the tickets are pouring in on the Chargers team. That's interesting. I think that these pros might know something more than we do about Herbert. Maybe he's more injured than that's getting let on. So if you can still get plus two and a half, I'd take that now. Because if it comes out, there is something going on there. He might be banged up. You're going to see it move just like this Arizona line. It's going to start dropping. So I am in on the Eagles.”
PHI 24, LAC 27 — Chargers beat Eagles 27-24; Philadelphia lost by 3, busting +2.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Jesus Christ. I mean, obviously we have to take the Colts here. Jets Mike White just had his career game. I think it's him and Steve Young are the only guys ever to be down by double digits in the final five minutes and come back and win in their first start ever. So Mike White, maybe this is the Drew Bledsoe, Tom Brady scenario for the Jets. The Jets, Zach Wilson gets knocked out by the Patriots. Their backup ends up being a Hall of Famer in Mike White, or we just fade them because this is completely BS. And this kid is not as good as you look in that game. So, yeah, what are you going to do? The public's going to come in heavy on a 10 and a half here with the dog. They just saw them upset what they think is one of the better teams in the football and the Bengals. I have to go the other way. How do I not take the Colts here? I had this line at minus 12.”
IND 45, NYJ 30 — Colts beat Jets 45-30 on Thursday Night Football; Indianapolis won by 15, covering -10.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“regression spot. But I'm with you, man. I look at the Chargers at four and a half. I'm like, are you fucking kidding me?”
NE 27, LAC 24 — Patriots beat Chargers 27-24; Los Angeles lost by 3, covering +4.5 (ESPN).
“I'm still going to be taking the Saints money line. Thank you for the pros betting this up, giving me more value on the money line.”
NO 36, TB 27 — Saints beat Buccaneers 36-27 outright, so the New Orleans moneyline wins (ESPN).
“Yeah, I can throw one out. So if you would not listen to me last week or no, if you listen to me on the show, you had the Colts in there with the Bengals with Tennessee. You had a good, good week. Unfortunately, I was an idiot and I didn't do that. So this week, going back to the well, we love home dogs. No surprise. So the Colts are no longer an underdog, so I won't throw them in there anymore. I did have them in there earlier in the week. If you want to ride with, I'm still in the Packers tonight. Still in the Packers plus six and a half. Still in their money line tonight, if anyone wants to ride with that one. If not, we can throw it out. Let's go through it. Like the Jaguars on the money line. Like the Saints on the money line. Like the Vikings on the money line. I I'm going to wait and see if it's to ride Taylor 100% will have the Texans in on my money line parlay again wait and see he just came back to practice today he is a difference maker for that offense and rounded out with some other ugly dogs people don't like it but I'm still going to take the Panthers money line it's I just have to do it against the Falcons um and you know if they're looking for a 6-1 to throw in there. Don't hate the football team. They've been unlucky last couple weeks. Feels like a ball of teams are really due for a win. Against the Broncos team, that just seems like they're completely falling apart with Teddy Bridgewater being banged up It just does not seem right over there And I think Vaughn Miller is out as well for this game So if you looking for a sixth one to throw in and you don want to put Green Bay in tonight got no issue taking Washington in this.”
Week 8 ML round robin: Saints beat Buccaneers 36-27 (won) and Panthers beat Falcons 19-13 (won), but Cowboys beat Vikings 20-16 (Vikings ML lost), Seahawks beat Jaguars 31-7 (Jaguars ML lost), and Broncos beat Washington 17-10 (Washington ML lost), so the parlay busts (ESPN week 8 scoreboard).
“Give me the Bears plus three and a half.”
SF 33, CHI 22 — 49ers beat Bears 33-22; Chicago lost by 11, no cover of +3.5 (ESPN).
“getting right this week i don't know what to do like it's three and a half two horrible teams how do i not take the ugly three and a half dog um the public will be coming in heavy on seahawks everyone hates the jaguars i hate that i have to bet the jaguars so i'm not gonna make it anywhere like foxhole any of that stuff because i can't do it anymore with the fans of the show but yes jags three and a half jags money line i'll be betting all of it we're gonna have to go into”
SEA 31, JAX 7 — Seahawks beat Jaguars 31-7; Jacksonville lost by 24, no cover of +3.5 (ESPN).
“getting right this week i don't know what to do like it's three and a half two horrible teams how do i not take the ugly three and a half dog um the public will be coming in heavy on seahawks everyone hates the jaguars i hate that i have to bet the jaguars so i'm not gonna make it anywhere like foxhole any of that stuff because i can't do it anymore with the fans of the show but yes jags three and a half jags money line i'll be betting all of it we're gonna have to go into”
SEA 31, JAX 7 — Seahawks beat Jaguars 31-7 outright, so the Jacksonville moneyline loses (ESPN).
“I had this line at two. It's two and a half now. That's a good number by the books. But, man, it just screams trap. Everything I look at on paper, this just screams a trap. So I have to trust my instincts here and take this Minnesota team at home.”
DAL 20, MIN 16 — Cowboys beat Vikings 20-16; Minnesota lost by 4, no cover of +2.5 (ESPN).
“So nothing's changed here. Still like the number. I wish it was at seven. Don't mind it at six and a half. That's a key number like we talked about. So this feels like an easy no-brainer. This will be one of our five.”
CIN 41, BAL 17 — Bengals beat Ravens 41-17; Cincinnati won by 24, covering +6.5 (ESPN).
“sheesh denver is still three and a half in here do it that's we gotta do it all right putting that”
CLE 17, DEN 14 — Browns beat Broncos 17-14; Denver lost by 3, covering +3.5 (ESPN).
“because i'm anxious about a game please please i did bet the broncos plus three got ahead of that because we had a little conversation about it on down to one now”
CLE 17, DEN 14 — Browns beat Broncos 17-14; Denver lost by exactly 3, pushing the +3 spread (ESPN).
“influences what we do on Thursday. We're going to start with sharp calls. Hello, who's there? I'm talking. yeah quick quick calls this week so mad metro probably posted it 4 p.m i got multiple calls by 5 30 5 15 which is like 2 15 2 o'clock las vegas time so my one i love that we have avid listeners who are listening as soon as the show is dropped again these are people that do nothing all day so you shouldn't be that shocked like a lot of my guys I work with their days don't start till 7 p.m so I'm not shocked at all but yeah first first thing uh he says he goes how are you taking Green Bay after last week you gotta take Washington football team you love this number at nine you love it at nine and a half and he just kept going on and on I love I still love Green Bay still think we're getting a great number uh I think professionals are kind of getting trapped here where they're seeing a high number they're just like me and you we think green bay is overrated they're not as good as they've been this year like they've they've played above where they should be but when you start diving in the numbers it's like you know they've actually been a little unlucky they're one of the worst teams in the red zone um statistically this year playing against a washington football team that man there's no doubt in it now they're they're bad like their their d line is not as good as we thought it was. Their secondary is legit awful. So, you know, he was giving me a hard time saying we should be off Green Bay. Nothing's changed. I still love it. Still love it at seven and a half. It feels just like last week with the Rams and the Giants. These professional groups are coming in on this dog. They think they're getting a good number. They're bending all the way down. In the end, they might be just giving us a better number. So I have no issues taking Green Bay putting them in a teaser And I get their argument It the same reason I kind of like the Texans this week It a nice look spot So the Cardinals and Green Bay play each other on Thursday night People are assuming they're going to kind of overlook both these teams that are playing to get ready for Thursday night. I just can't see that with Green Bay at home. And it's hard to see the Cardinals who are undefeated just laying an egg. So it's both these times where I hear why they're saying it's a look-ahead spot. I just can't get on board with that with these two teams. You love this game so much and you have made it. I mentioned Scooch Roulette, obviously. Scooch Roulette, for those who are new to the podcast, I mentioned Bob Scooch earlier. Scooch and I, when he was the co-host of the podcast before Simon had him killed, we used to do this head-to-head matchup, Scooch Roulette. I choose a game, he choose a game. uh so we brought it back in honor of scooch and this week scooch roulette simon chose green bay i chose the eagles um as underdogs against the raiders this is the most interesting game on the board right now because when i listened to raybon and stucky in the action network podcast this morning and they were going through their sunday six pack um they loved washington a the line was nine and a half. You mentioned the line has now moved down to seven and a half. They had it rated at seven. They made some really good points about the Washington football team and that while the D-line hasn't performed as well as it did last year, it's still pretty good. The pass rush has been strong. It just hasn't been getting to the quarterback. It's the defensive backfield that is a mess and that's what's causing the problems for the Washington football team. And then you think about the Packers. And two years ago, Raybon did amazing stories about Aaron Rodgers and how he was continuing to perform worse and worse against the pass rush. Obviously, rectified that last year. But this year, there are three quarterbacks worse against the rush right now than Aaron Rodgers. Tua, Geno Smith, Justin Fields. So we're talking about a team that does have a look-ahead spot that to me still has some fluky wins. Like there were some plays in that Bears game that it didn't need to go that way. It's making me a little nervous about this. It puts me in a quandary because I'm starting to favor the Washington football team. It feels like a overrated, underrated spot. I got the guys in Vegas calling you, sharp calls, but you love this so much. You've made it your scooch roulette pick. How can I not back my BFF and want this to be in our top five? Don't step into the trap. It's just a trap. Antonio Gibson, their number one running back, he's hurt. Terry McLaurin, their number one receiver, he's hurt. Curtis Samuel, their number two receiver, he's hurt. Heineke is not a good quarterback. So if it was Fitz and all their guys were healthy, I told you I'd love Washington. This is a great position. You literally got the backup quarterback with no starters on offense. So if you're down 14 points to Green Bay, you're going to be praying to even get in field goal range with this Washington team. I just don't see how they move the ball. So I just, in a normal situation, yeah, I'd be with them on Washington. I just feel like they're overlooking the most obvious things, that this Washington team doesn't have any offensive weapons to stay in this game. So, again, I feel great about my green position. I'm happy now that it's down to 7.5-7. At 7.5-7, it starts to feel much better to me. I wonder if professional betters other than you, look at this at seven and have seven and say, Oh, I'm taking the Packers. Yeah. I mean, they took it at 10. They took it at nine and a half. Maybe they will flip over, but they didn't last week. Like they kept betting the giants. They bet it down a lot of offshore books that got down to seven by kickoff. So we'll see what they'll do this week,”
GB 24, WSH 10 — Packers beat Washington 24-10; Green Bay won by 14, covering -7.5 (ESPN).
“I mean, we were going to wait and see if this keep getting better up because that'd be great if we could get this at six. And now it's going the other way. Kind of some books have it down to four and a half now. So still the same thing. We like the Tennessee team that can run on this Chiefs team. but it's this classic game. Whoever has the ball last feels like they're going to win. So, you know, I'm going to take the points and I'll take the money line on Tennessee just because that's where the value is. But this is the definition of a coin flip game. There's so many injuries in this secondary to this Tennessee team. No one's going to be able to stop Travis Kelsey in this matchup. So if they can ball control it with Derrick Henry, you know, it's going to be second and three all game for this Tennessee offense. And Ryan Tannehill can just make these short completions and step up. it hard not to take Tennessee here They just everything slants towards them where they the home team They have the run game that can be consistent We seen it with Mahomes He makes incredible plays He also messes up a decent amount. If you mess up against his Tennessee team, they're going to capitalize on it. So I still love the number of four and a half.”
TEN 27, KC 3 — Titans beat Chiefs 27-3 outright; Tennessee covers +4.5 easily (ESPN).
“[35:31] thing so yeah if if you're like us we're sitting here we're either gonna take new england or the [35:36] cardinals just week just to get rid of them because these this is by far their best matchups [35:41] both of them um i feel honestly i feel better taking the cardinals just because it feels more [35:47] safe like you know we'll win where new england it's again it's mac jones like the kid is a rookie [35:54] that make stupid mistakes. [35:55] So a little scary, [35:56] but if we want to get rid of New England, [35:58] this is a prime spot to do so. [36:01] I would rather take the Cardinals.”
ARI 31, HOU 5 — Cardinals beat Texans 31-5 outright, so the Arizona moneyline wins (ESPN).
“um he's always a play away from being hurt and then Case Keenum's coming in so this number still sitting at three and a half of your book with the Broncos I have no issue taking that as we sit here on Tuesday Teddy covers he's been bad of late he hasn't been an underdog and we like Teddy taking him in this position as an underdog so three and a half Teddy's an underdog this this is when we pounce so as long as you're getting that hook above the three I feel comfortable taking it because as we sit here on Tuesday the information we're getting it feels like it's me a game time decision for Baker. So I do see this number coming down if it is Baker is out. So I would take that three and a half while you done It going to be tough”
CLE 17, DEN 14 — Browns beat Broncos 17-14; Denver lost by 3, covering +3.5 (ESPN).
“Let's talk about the Philadelphia Eagles. Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders. The Eagles now three and a half point dogs. Massive, massive pros-Joes game. And this is when you 100% flip the script and bet on the Philadelphia Eagles. Yeah, we're not going to have fun. This is not going to be enjoying. I mean, anyone that bet the Eagles Thursday night, that was not fun. That was such an awful sweat, but such a beautiful one at the same time. It was never in doubt, as they said. Again, Chad touched on it. This is a pros versus Joes game. We are going to start seeing a pattern here. Whatever game, I think Stucky tweeted out, whoever's the underdog in the Oakland, I mean, the Las Vegas Raiders matchup, you just take the underdog. That's who's going to cover. So if it's Las Vegas and their dog, they'll cover. They're the favorite. Whoever they're playing against is going to cover. We love it at three and a half. This is going to go down to three in a lot of books. Pros are going to come in on this number.”
LV 33, PHI 22 — Raiders beat Eagles 33-22; Philadelphia lost by 11, no cover of +3.5 (ESPN).
“Everyone's going to be betting Atlanta. Only pros will be taking Miami. Tua's not as bad as he looked in that game. He had little moments where he looked rusty, like he hadn't played in a couple weeks. Love Miami. Love Miami in this bounce back spot at home after that kind of loss. I will be on an island though. So I have no doubt this is the same thing where me and you were going to, it's going to come to Sunday and I'm going to be like, I can't do it to you, Chad. I can't make you put this one in the contest and Miami is going to win by 20 points. So these are one of the few lines I'd bet early on. Cause if you got the three at a couple of books for just a little bit and I bet it, and now it's back down to two and a half. So if it gets back to three, I'll be on Miami.”
ATL 30, MIA 28 — Falcons beat Dolphins 30-28; Miami lost by 2, covering +3 (ESPN).
“I gonna go chalk I take Green Bay minus nine [30:30] and a half wow yeah before it gets to 10”
GB 24, WSH 10 — Packers beat Washington 24-10; Green Bay won by 14, covering -9.5 (ESPN).
“give me a bullshit trend with a small sample size i like the saints um coming off a bye week playing against the Seahawks team that kind of gave everything in that Pittsburgh matchup and they lost So this stays at five stays below six Got no issue taking the Saints here This is a must win game for the Saints if they want to make the playoffs this year because they have a really hard schedule coming up So they kind of got to steal this one here and, you know, say what you want about the Saints team. They haven't looked great, obviously, this year. Their defense has been played pretty well all year. So if that's one thing I can lean on and they're rushing attack against this really bad run defense of the Seahawks, I like it. I like it's rare for me to take primetime favorites, but I do like the Saints in this position.”
NO 13, SEA 10 — Saints beat Seahawks 13-10; New Orleans won by only 3, no cover of -5 (ESPN).
“this week it's going to flip because we're going to be on the browns minus three and we fucking love this number easy money done done totally i'm putting it in i'm putting it in the contest”
ARI 37, CLE 14 — Cardinals beat the Browns 37-14 outright; Cleveland failed to cover -3, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“We like the plus six and a half. [9:12] Now I'm sitting here talking about Chad Eagles has to be our Hornets nest play, doesn't it?”
TB 28, PHI 22 — Buccaneers beat the Eagles 28-22; Philadelphia margin -6 covers the +6.5 line, so the spread bet won (ESPN).
“We love the Browns. We are thinking that we're going to be on the Raiders so that's three we're liking the bears bears have to be in there four and a half yeah we're on we're on the bears at four and a half that's four games eagles browns raiders bears and then i think we're going to choose on sunday like lions texans or somebody else yeah or washington like that's what”
GB 24, CHI 14 — Packers beat the Bears 24-14; Chicago margin -10 vs the +4.5 line, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“I'm the only one that has Las Vegas [32:17] Raiders as a favorite. So everyone else is all over this Denver team. They think this is a good [32:22] line On the other way I have Las Vegas at minus one So I love this number I think we getting incredible value three and a half”
DEN 24, LV 34 — Raiders beat the Broncos 34-24 outright, covering +3.5, so the spread bet won (ESPN).
“I've already bet the plus 14 against Arizona next week with this Houston [12:21] team just in case he does come back I can see that line dropping”
ARI 31, HOU 5 — Cardinals beat the Texans 31-5; Houston margin -26 vs the +14 line, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“So I'm going to be riding this Bills team. [36:14] I'm all in on them. [36:15] I think this line should be six, six and a half. [36:17] It's still five and a half. [36:19] Happy to take that number at this point.”
TEN 34, BUF 31 — Titans beat the Bills 34-31; Buffalo failed to cover -5.5 (lost outright), so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“So I'm going to do Thursday night special. I'll have the Eagles in there, even though I really have zero faith in this team to win. But I do love them to cover Detroit, Washington. Again, Carolina's too short, so we don't have to put that one in. Put the Lions in there. And then I like capping off with the Raiders just because I would love to have New England in there. I just can't see them winning it. I just, I can't have faith in a rookie quarterback like that to close this game out against Dak. Dak has just been playing too well this year. So it's maybe come Sunday, I'll throw one out there with the, with New England in there. As we sit here Thursday, I don't have any money line ties to this New England bet.”
Three of the four moneyline legs lost outright in Week 6 2021: Buccaneers beat Eagles 28-22, Bengals beat Lions 34-11, and Chiefs beat Washington 31-13; only the Raiders' 34-24 win over the Broncos hit, so the round robin parlay lost (ESPN).
“the Buccaneers on a Thursday night game. Tom Brady, I don't know if you'll remember this. He forgot what down it was. He thought He had one more down. He didn't. We have to take the Eagles in this position. Eagles are undefeated. We're not undefeated, but I believe they're 7-0 on their last seven Thursday night games. A little fun fact for you. We love Thursdays in Philly. The fans will get up for it. It's a Thursday night game. Again, people have been drinking since noon. It's a little bit of people are underrating the... Again, Buccaneers have one of the greatest runees we've probably ever seen. It's incredible what they've done this season as a run defense. But their cornerbacks, that's such a real issue. And, you know, Brissette is a corpse. That guy can't move. And he got injured in the first quarter, and he was just done. They were out two of their top receivers in Miami. I should have known better to really back that Miami team with all the injuries they had. But I thought Flores was going to have a defense that was going to step up. And, again, they give up 45 points. I did not see that coming with that Miami defense. we've seen it with this defense. They've played well this year. They've, they really shut down a Carolina offense. They shut down the 49ers offense every game they've been in. I know you can see the chiefs really blew them out. That was just kind of, I don't know how to say this, but you know, it's my homes. It's my homes. It's a little bit different where I can see this D line again after Brady, where I just didn't see it. They had an advantage against Darnold or my homes. I ate a bowl last week with Darnold. He was terribly through three interceptions. I don't know if they're going to get that kind of luck against Brady again, but now that's up to seven and a half Chad over a touchdown at home. What are you thinking here, buddy?”
TB 28, PHI 22 — Buccaneers beat the Eagles 28-22; Philadelphia margin -6 covers the +7.5 line, so the spread bet won (ESPN).
“because I think it will go down to six and a half. Grab the seven right now, plus seven, a fan duel. When Simon Says do it, when Simon Says do it, We do what Simon says. There we go. Simon says grab the Washington football team. Next up. Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers. Boy, if this isn't a disappointing team visiting a team that we have completely lost our read on, I don't know what is. the Panthers are one point underdogs at home against the Vikings who thou art you Sam Darnold”
KC 31, WSH 13 — Chiefs beat Washington 31-13; Washington margin -18 vs the +7 line, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“This is a bet Detroit on the Moneyline game”
CIN 34, DET 11 — Bengals beat the Lions 34-11, so the Detroit moneyline bet lost (ESPN).
“They're running the ball really well against this Raiders team. So you're giving me four and a half, a divisional game at home. We'll take the Bears.”
GB 24, CHI 14 — Packers beat the Bears 24-14; Chicago margin -10 vs the +4.5 line, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“Are we taking advantage of that with the Raiders as three and a half point underdogs at Denver? This is one of my bigger bets, Chad. No. Yeah. Love, love, love the Raiders in this position.”
DEN 24, LV 34 — Raiders beat the Broncos 34-24 outright, covering +3.5, so the spread bet won (ESPN).
“on Mike Evans or Godwin, I just feel like there's enough pieces for this Miami team to keep us close where, again, I had this power rate at seven and a half. It opened at 10 and a half, 11. I thought I was getting three points of value. To me, that's huge. I've been on Miami, going to keep betting them. I'll take them down to eight and a half at this point. Of course, Chad, we're going to have their money line in a couple of bets because, again, this is a last possession kind the game. We respect the hell out of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, but we don't respect that defense. And we see the pieces that Miami has an offense. They could get Waddle right in this game. They get Devontae Parker right in this game. This is just a nice match. for this Miami team. So give me those points, Chad.”
TB 45, MIA 17 — Buccaneers beat the Dolphins 45-17; Miami margin -28 vs the +8.5 line, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“So I'm fine with not putting it as one of our best five, but I will still be back in the Panthers. It just feels like a professional trap for the Eagles this week. I think it opened at four and a half, five, and now it's only down to three and a half. So the pro money is coming heavy on it. A little bit like they're overlooking the major issues on this Eagles team. So I can't hate it because they literally just played Dallas and then they just played since Kansas City Chiefs. So, of course, you would see the Eagles bouncing back here. This is just a bet on Carolina team. They play great at home and I like them in this position. So I'm still still betting Carolina.”
PHI 21, CAR 18 — Eagles beat the Panthers 21-18; Carolina margin -3 fails to cover -3.5, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“sense 49ers we got a cardinals team hyped up to the you know the highest of highs cardinals either going to blow this team out and the 49ers or 49ers are going to win this game so let me fade the hype train. Love, love, love divisional matchups like this. We got a rookie quarterback playing in Trey Lance. So the Cardinals really aren't going to know how to defend this guy, prepare for him. Give it to me. That's a big number plus 190 on the money line right now. That's right. So that could be our fourth leg. And then I'm sorry to do it. I'm sorry to do it to you people, but we have to do it because it's a home dog value. Give me the Jacksonville Jaguars money line. They haven't won. I think they're going on 19 or 20 weeks. I will keep losing money, betting their home money line, but this is what I have to do.”
All five moneyline legs lost outright in Week 5 2021: Buccaneers beat Dolphins 45-17, Titans beat Jaguars 37-19, Patriots beat Texans 25-22, Packers beat Bengals 25-22 (OT), and Cardinals beat 49ers 17-10, so the round robin parlay lost (ESPN).
“I just gave them out a 20 to one to win the Super Bowl.”
Dallas Cowboys did not win Super Bowl LVI; the Los Angeles Rams defeated the Cincinnati Bengals 23-20 on Feb 13, 2022, so the +2000 futures ticket lost (ESPN).
“won't have this is our best five but I'm gonna wake up I'll take the dog the Jets are horrible Atlanta's horrible even though Atlanta did look better last week um they played that Washington game tough. I just, man, I can't back this Atlanta team. They just have so many issues going on right now. So I'll just be the chalky play. I think the public's coming in heavy on the jets. I'll ride with them. I'll take the plus three and a half.”
ATL 27, NYJ 20 — Falcons beat the Jets 27-20; Jets margin -7 vs the +3.5 line, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“But I have no problem taking Miami plus 10 and a half right now.”
TB 45, MIA 17 — Buccaneers beat the Dolphins 45-17; Miami margin -28 vs the +10.5 line, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“I bet a little on the Miami money line.”
TB 45, MIA 17 — Buccaneers beat the Dolphins 45-17, so the Dolphins moneyline bet lost (ESPN).
“They had a bunch of just really bad plays by another than Jared Goff. So, yeah, if this day is above seven, we'll be in on it. But this is one of the rare times where I like taking road divisional teams, taking their money lines. I probably won't do lines here just because I don't think they know how to win. They seem like that team that just does not know how to win. So I won't take lines money line, but I will be taking a seven and a half. It's a great point. I I want the Lions to be better than they are.”
MIN 19, DET 17 — Vikings beat the Lions 19-17; Detroit margin -2 covers the +7.5 line, so the spread bet won (ESPN).
“Again, they stole that game from the Seahawks. I'll keep fading them. I'm happy to keep fading the Tennessee Titans here. I'll be on an island. This is literally the emphasis of pros versus Joes. Only professionals will be taking this plus four on the Jaguars because this easily could be 14-0, one minute in with the Tennessee Titans. But I have to bet a home dog in a divisional game like this, Chad. And, you know, everything you said is right.”
TEN 37, JAX 19 — Titans beat the Jaguars 37-19; Jacksonville margin -18 vs the +4 line, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“from betters here oh sorry to do it shot i have to fade the bears here we've seen a pattern when the Bears starting to develop. They're shit on the road and they're good at home. They're on the road. They're playing against a team that has one of the best home crowds now in football, the Las Vegas Raiders. I hate doing it. So chalky, but I'm going to be riding with the public. I'm going to be taking the Raiders this week. I had this number at six. I loved when it opened. I thought you were getting good value. I still think you're getting pretty good value, but like you just talked about, that hurts the early line movement. The pros came in, they ate that number up. Now it's up to five, five and a half of certain books. not loving it at that value, but I still would have no problem taking the Las Vegas Raiders to that spot.”
CHI 20, LV 9 — Bears beat the Raiders 20-9 outright; Las Vegas failed to cover -5.5, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“simon says take the giants plus seven and a half you're getting an overinflated cowboys team”
DAL 44, NYG 20 — Cowboys beat the Giants 44-20; New York margin -24 vs the +7.5 line, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“going against either of these teams. But the smart side to me will just be taking Mahomes under a field goal at home. And that's why I have to do it. I mean, if you get Chiefs minus two and a half, then you should, if you can only get three or three, if you can get three, you stay away.”
BUF 38, KC 20 — Bills beat the Chiefs 38-20; Kansas City failed to cover -2.5, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“But I don't want to take the Eagles here. I get it. But as anyone listening to this, you have to take, if you have seven and a half in your pick pools or whatever, you have to take the Eagles. This is, everything about this is why we fade the Chiefs. They always get backdoor. This is a typical backdoor game. They don't have their run game to melt the clock away. Mahomes is going to be taking deep shots all night. So, again, if this game is, you know, the Chiefs are up 24 to 10 or 21 to 10, I honestly will feel comfortable when Hurts has the ball thinking I'll be able to get a backdoor. But for this in our contest, maybe maybe we'll take the week off because like you just said, holy hell, are the Chiefs overdue to cover a game? One in 11 ATS, their last 12. They are so overdue. So I've made all my money on fading them, especially early on the season. I'm cool taking a week off in our contest and not going against them. So I will be on the Eagles, but I will not be I will not be putting this in our contest. It's an interesting question about when do the patterns start to be things that you fade versus things that you bank on?”
42-30 — Chiefs beat Eagles 42-30; Philadelphia lost by 12, busting the +7.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I've already bet the Jets on the money line.”
27-24 — Jets beat Titans 27-24 in OT; the New York moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Ooh, each, Chad. The numbers move down, by the way. Opened eight and a half, now it's seven and a half. And you know you have to bet the Eagles here. You have to bet the Eagles. This is typical embarrassment on a primetime game.”
42-30 — Chiefs beat Eagles 42-30; Philadelphia lost by 12, busting the +7.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Go bet the Panthers plus four and a half.”
36-28 — Cowboys beat Panthers 36-28; Carolina lost by 8, busting the +4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to have a decent amount invested on the money line of Carolina.”
36-28 — Panthers lost 36-28 to the Cowboys; the Carolina moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I mean it moved from 47 and a half to 53 and a half. Yeah. So I got a 48 and a half.”
14-7 — Browns beat Vikings 14-7; the combined 21 points busts the Over 48.5 (ESPN box score).
“with the Jets and I'm that guy. I promise you right now, I won't put this on convincing me because I feel so terrible at the Jags, but this is one of my favorite bets of the week, the Jets plus seven and a half. Jesus Christ. Something's got to knock some of these people on the survivor contest. There's going to be some crazy upsets. This has to be one on the board.”
27-24 — Jets beat Titans 27-24 in OT, covering New York +7.5 by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“Pretty close. Take the points. Take the money line. This is like one of my favorite upsets of the day. Jets are winning this game. I don't know how. Nothing makes sense. Love, love, love, love, love, love, love, love, love the Jets in this position.”
27-24 — Jets beat Titans 27-24 in OT; the New York moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“has changed in this fact uh six and a half it's a great number i was hoping to go back to seven That's what a lot of the pros hit it at. Still, we love the sixth and a half. A divisional game that we've seen it with the Chiefs defense. They can be run on at will. And this team with the Chargers, you can say what they want. That offensive line is pretty good. They're going to be able to run the ball against this weak Chiefs front. So we're expecting a very close game here, Chad. And the fact that it's two points higher than what it should be, just because it is the Chiefs, this is why the Chiefs keep not covering, because the Lions keep getting bumped up this way. So we're going to keep riding this trend and we're going to take the chargers here. Yeah, there's a pretty specific pattern here.”
30-24 — Chargers beat Chiefs 30-24 on the road, covering Los Angeles +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“and on top of that the Cardinals defense is one of the you know worst graded defenses this year they can be run on huge gaping holes for that team especially last week against Alvin Cook so it's a game we think Robinson will get right and Trevor Lawrence he won't turn the ball over as much seven and a half it's too big of a number this Cardinals team should not be favored by that much so yeah we could look like idiots come next week when the Jaguars get blown out again but I have to as a professional bet this number but I'm not I'm not going to make you make our best five, Chad. Don't worry. No, it is a hundred percent the sharp play only because when a team is this big of an underdog at home, you historically have to bet it. And the Cardinals, I think a lot of professional betters, they look at these games and think the Cardinals are suspect. They think a, they can't trust Cliff Kingsbury. We know this. Matt Mitchell knows this. He's done his Cliff Kingsbury rant.”
31-19 — Cardinals beat Jaguars 31-19; Jacksonville lost by 12, busting the +7.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“now that's down to seven, I I'm happy taking the [22:40] bills here.”
43-21 — Bills routed Washington 43-21, covering Buffalo -7 (ESPN box score).
“again i don't want to hate on their car too much we talked about i like their car coming to the year i i thought this guy could lead the league in uh passing but two weeks he's people's mvp now's the time we fade derrick carr so yes give me the four and a half give me the four public's coming in so heavy on the raiders uh las vegas raiders now i think are getting over 85 of the bet so we're we're happy in our position right now taking the four and a half what's interesting is the uh yeah it's 81 percent of the bets are on the las vegas raiders uh with”
31-28 — Raiders beat Dolphins 31-28 in OT; Miami lost by 3, covering the +4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“bet too much money already on the Rams. And it's like, oh my God, why am I going against Tom Brady like this? What am I doing? Like, can I just avoid this game? Everything points to the Rams. Like we talked about on Tuesday, but this is just a classic where I'm like overthinking it too much where it's like, okay, the Rams, who'd they beat? They beat the bears with Andy Dalton. And then they'd be like, you hated on Carson Wentz and the Colts. It's a little nerve wracking, but at the same time, I have to trust my system, trust these numbers. And it's like, okay, the Rams are up to plus two, plus two and a half. If they get to three, I'm going to have way too much money bet on this Rams team as a home dog. The Buccaneers are just so incredibly overvalued. Aaron Donald, if he can get one shot on Brady, that might be all she wrote for the Buccaneers this season. I mean, this guy, this is the exact reason you take the Rams. I know that the Henderson injury is a big deal for them at running back, but they also still have Sonny Michelle there. I can't make us put it as one of our five, so it's going to be up to you on Sunday. But yes, people, I will be back in the Rams.”
34-24 — Rams beat Buccaneers 34-24, covering Los Angeles +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“we take we take the eagles plus four year every time”
41-21 — Cowboys beat Eagles 41-21; Philadelphia lost by 20, busting the +4 spread (ESPN box score).
“upset spot so it'll be rare for me to do the chalky plays but i'm gonna take this one here carolina i'll take the minus seven and a half i made this number eight yeah it's a it's a look i love this carolina team”
24-9 — Panthers beat Texans 24-9 in Houston, covering Carolina -7.5 (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, I hit the bills right when it came out with a seven”
43-21 — Bills routed Washington 43-21, covering Buffalo -7 (ESPN box score).
“So four and a half in a divisional game when this number should just be three, I really like the Bengals here, Chad. So this for me is my Simon Says play of the week.”
24-10 — Bengals beat Steelers 24-10, covering Cincinnati +4.5 (ESPN box score).
“And I jumped on this at four and a half just for that exact reason.”
31-28 — Raiders beat Dolphins 31-28 in OT; Miami lost by 3, covering the +4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I took the money line as well for Miami.”
31-28 — Dolphins lost 31-28 in OT to the Raiders; the Miami moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Love, love, love the 49ers in this position. Congrats, Aaron Rodgers had a big win on Monday night. Everyone's feeling good. Everyone's all happy, having fun with him on Twitter. No, this is when you fade Aaron Rodgers after that kind of win. People talked about how he can't win in Florida. This dude cannot win in California, let alone against the 49ers. He never plays well against the 49ers. We love Kyle Shanahan's run block scheme against this Green Bay's defense who cannot stop the run. Even Detroit is running all over them. man again 49ers they they escaped one last week against the Eagles they definitely should have lost that game but it was all because I felt like this was a good look ahead spot for them and turned out the Eagles were looking ahead towards Dallas because that was like you score three points at home late into the fourth quarter with the Eagles did that's embarrassing this is the other way 49ers they did what they had to do win that game now I mean people are going to be going crazy thinking themselves wow I'm getting Aaron Rodgers plus three and a half on the road here. It's sometimes it feels a little too easy, like the sports books do the work for us. And this instinct feels like that way, where you're getting a good number and the public's coming in very heavy on Green Bay. As long as it stays under four with the 49ers. So if it's going up to minus four, I would still take it, but I wouldn't put in our best five picks. If it stays at three and a half or goes down to three, you can guarantee this would be one of me and Chad's best five picks.”
30-28 — Packers beat 49ers 30-28 on the road; San Francisco lost outright, busting the -3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So I didn't love the money line. I was kind of hesitant to do it cause I just thought this was a good, I had this number at three. So I thought it was a good number at three and a half where you just take Miami in the points, you don't touch the money line. But now the way I think about you, I think you're spot on where this is one of these things where I'm probably gonna take this money line just because the public is coming in so heavy on the bills. It's literally, I think the last I saw was 90% of the tickets and 90% of the money were on the bills at one point. And they're on the road. They're on the road. So Chad knows what I love to do here. Anytime it's under 10% for a home team that's a dog, I go all in and all. So this is one of my favorite bets of the week, Miami.”
MIA 0, BUF 35 — Bills beat Dolphins 35-0; Dolphins lost by 35, busting +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“we like the Eagles plus three and a half. Hopefully you can still get it at FanDuel. That was one of the few books I saw left with the Eagles plus three and a half minus 120. I love the Eagles in this spot. The Eagles will also be in a money line parlay for me.”
PHI 11, SF 17 — 49ers beat Eagles 17-11; Eagles lost by 6, busting +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Bears are dropping. I got them at two and a half.”
CHI 20, CIN 17 — Bears beat Bengals 20-17, covering -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I have bet all of these games that we're talking about already. and feeling very good about him. Jacks plus six, Miami three and a half, Eagles three and a half, Steelers five and a half, minus five and a half.”
PIT 17, LV 26 — Raiders beat Steelers 26-17; Steelers lost by 9, busting -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“And it's looking more and more likely that this is going to be one of my bigger, end up being one of my bigger decisions of this upcoming weekend. where I'm going to have a lot of money tied to Atlanta's money line, even though I saw a terrible statistic. Matt Ryan 0 in his career versus Tom Brady straight up That would include a Super Bowl Indeed So not the best stat I saw the other day I did bet this is definitely in several of my money line parlays And I did take a taste of this on the money line as well.”
TB 48, ATL 25 — Buccaneers beat Falcons 48-25; Falcons moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Seahawks minus five.”
SEA 30, TEN 33 — Titans beat Seahawks 33-30 in OT; Seahawks lost by 3, busting -5 (ESPN box score).
“trust Baker, but we trust that run game. No chance, no chance the Browns lose. This is one of these few ones where I'm feeling pretty good with Survivor. So don't try to be too smart, people.”
CLE 31, HOU 21 — Browns beat Texans 31-21 outright; Browns win the survivor pick (ESPN box score).
“so looking at this game this just feels like a classic divisional game where you take the three and a half of the Giants I know they looked horrible in their game against Denver we talked about that that was kind of like a setup where the Giants haven't had all their pieces there Saquon's still not 100 no one really knows what's going on Galladay that offensive line's horrible I get it.”
WSH 30, NYG 29 — Washington beat the Giants 30-29; Giants lost by only 1, covering +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Chad taking Eagles money line this is an outright win for the eagles here so i am almost 100 positive this is one of our five picks”
PHI 11, SF 17 — 49ers beat Eagles 17-11; Eagles moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“It's three and it hasn't moved, which is making me a little scared where it's like, OK, if I have to pick a side, I'm going to take the home team and the Bears here when it's three where this this game's a coin flip. But the no movement, the Vegas might be telling you we have a trap here and the Bears are going to win this pretty easily. but the numbers say otherwise with Joe Burrow, he's seven, two and one, I believe is a home as a road dog in his young career. So against the spread, I would normally take the bears, Chad, but because of your voodoo with the bears, I guess we can't put them in our five because it's never worked out for us. Whenever we both love the bears, that's when you shouldn't take the bears. So we might be falling into a trap here, but man, minus three with the bears at home with your defense against Joe Burrow. I have to take the bears. I just, That's too good of a number not to take.”
CHI 20, CIN 17 — Bears beat Bengals 20-17; Bears won by exactly 3, pushing -3 (ESPN box score).
“Now it's down to 12 or 11 and a half at certain books.”
TB 48, ATL 25 — Buccaneers beat Falcons 48-25; Falcons lost by 23, busting +11.5 (ESPN box score).
“to even do it because Sean and Stucky both put the numbers in there and they weren't anywhere close to mine, but I did it. I had this at seven and a half with Atlanta. Love the value. Love the money line.”
TB 48, ATL 25 — Buccaneers beat Falcons 48-25; Falcons moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“So give me the Chargers minus two and a half”
DAL 20, LAC 17 — Cowboys beat Chargers 20-17; Chargers lost by 3, busting -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“So people, I get it. I hate it too. It's not going to be one of me and Chad's fives most likely just because it's terrifying going against Patrick Mahomes. It is the most terrifying thing ever. So I, I, I love the plus four, but I'm not going to tell anyone to take the money line here. Cause Mahomes hasn't lost in September and 11 games, 11 straight wins in September for my home. So it's not worth betting against them at this point. So I will not be taking the Ravens money line, but we'll be taking the plus four”
BAL 36, KC 35 — Ravens beat Chiefs 36-35; Ravens won by only 1, covering +4 (ESPN box score).
“Let's go, Chad. You know I love the Chiefs. The hookmakers make traps for professionals. This feels like a trap game where they're trying to get you to take Cleveland. They're trying to sucker people in here and to buy into the hype. And I'm trying to fade that noise. So, again, under six now, five and a half. I love, love, love the Chiefs. Andy Reid in September is on a 16-0 streak.”
KC 33, CLE 29 — Chiefs beat Browns 33-29; Chiefs won by only 4, busting -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“We like the Washington football team plus one.”
WSH 16, LAC 20 — Chargers beat Washington 20-16; Washington lost by 4, busting +1 (ESPN box score).
“We're literally taking a team everyone hates in Pittsburgh. All you hear about it, how old Ben Roethlisberger is, how bad this O-line is. Playing against everyone's favorite team, the sweethearts of the NFL. Everyone's all in on Josh Allen MVP. Everyone's all in on the over of the Bills win total, 11 and a half, 12. Everyone's all in on them winning the division. They have them coming in second or winning the AFC. I do like the Bills. I think they're a good team, but regression is a good team. of the game. So this is a trip up spot here. So big ball is better than week plus six and a half. Give me Pittsburgh chat.”
BUF 16, PIT 23 — Steelers beat Bills 23-16, covering +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“But that's like a less than a five percent chance of happening. Just by the math, if they play this game 100 times, we're going to be winning this game over 70 percent of the time. So just off that alone, we probably want to take the Rams here, just get it out of the way, because in that division, it doesn't feel like we're going to have that many opportunities to be taking the Rams. So for survivor contest, I know it's it's it's pretty scary that we're taking a Sunday night primetime game, but we just need him to win. We don't need him to cover seven and a half. We just need him to win. So I like the Rams here, that number.”
LAR 34, CHI 14 — Rams beat Bears 34-14 outright; moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“weird here and we like doing money line parlays so again these things won't make sense but they hit it's crazy to say but these things hit last year i had the jaguars and washington football team i think it was 17 to 1 um because i believe the jaguars were a 10-point underdog and washington was a 7 underdog um playing the eagles last year that hit that paid literally 17 to 1 So my favorite long shot Moneyline Parlay this week a couple of different ones but I really like Detroit with Pittsburgh and or you pair it up with Oakland which plays on the Monday night because again Yeah, Vegas. Sorry. I'm so sorry. It's one of these things where I like hedge out opportunities. So it's it's one of those where, you know, I might throw the Chiefs and Bucks in with a parlay with Las Vegas money line and I can just hedge it out Monday night football. So different things like that. It's it's all about giving yourself an extra out. So that's what I like to do with these Moneyline Parlay's. I like taking long shots that I can hedge out that I can hit that middle number no matter what.”
Parlay busts: Lions lost 41-33 to the 49ers (Lions ML fails) while Steelers beat the Bills 23-16 (Steelers ML cashes) (ESPN box scores).
“They're pretty much giving you a gift if you take the Seahawks. So whenever the sports folks are giving me a gift, I usually go the other way. So that's why I'm on the Colts this week. Meaning you've already made a bet on the Colts at plus two and a half. Bet them two and a half, put them in a teaser or two, which is funny because I was actually on the other way. I was on it. I had a Seahawks teaser, but it got knocked out because the Green Bay game got moved, but I'm just trying to play value. And if I have this game at a pick and it's plus two and a half, I have to take that number with the Colts. You said the bookmakers are begging”
SEA 28, IND 16 — Seahawks beat Colts 28-16; Colts lost by 12, well beyond +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“And I still actually had this at three and a half and it's moved down at a couple of different books down to minus three. But for me, the easier playing this game would just be the over. I can see Atlanta themselves putting up 40 points, but I also see this Eagles offense being better than people give them credit for it. Because again, the Eagles are healthy right now. Their whole offensive line is healthy. They have weapons of their wide receiver position. They have, you know, you can say what you want about Zach hurts. He's a pretty damn good tight end. They got Dallas Carter, the other tight end, pretty good tight end. And they have miles Sanders running back. So the safer play to me feels like it's the total. We just take the over, but I like the line as well for Atlanta. It's a fair number. So I am taking the minus three and a half, But I just wouldn't force into our contest because it just feels like there's better lines out there.”
ATL 6, PHI 32 — Eagles beat Falcons 32-6; Falcons lost outright, busting -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“know it's no big deal it has to be wearing on this guy so just from a standpoint of I like what Detroit has on offense you know I like Swift I like Hawkinson I think golf in this kind of situation and behind that O-line can surprise some people again I'm not saying Detroit's going to be a 500 team this year. But for first game of the year at home as a home dog, seven and a half points, man, this is an incredibly inflated line. Like we talked last week, I had this line at five, two and a half points of value. This is one of my bigger bets of the week. So I'll be on the seven and a half and also be put there on this money lining with a couple other bets. So I'm a big, big, big Detroit believer this upcoming weekend. Wow. Money line. I've already circled it. I”
DET 33, SF 41 — 49ers beat Lions 41-33; Lions lost by 8, busting +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm more than happy to put this in our contest at plus six and a half.”
BUF 16, PIT 23 — Steelers beat Bills 23-16, covering +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“I also have to take Pittsburgh's money line here.”
BUF 16, PIT 23 — Steelers beat Bills 23-16 outright; moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Um, yeah, exactly what you just said. And you read in September, you just back them. And we joke all the time. This counts as Andy Reid after a bye week, doesn't it? I mean, he's had two weeks to prepare for this team. So love it. This is one of these where the Bucks already talked. I'm going to take their money line with a couple of teams. This is one of the teams I'm pairing it with. Bucks money line with the Chiefs money line. This is one of my bigger bets of the weekend. So I just, I get the hype and the love for Cleveland. This is just an awful matchup in Arrowhead first week of the year. It's just way too much for me to back Baker to go against my homes in this kind of situation. So I am a Browns believer in this upcoming season, but not. In this game, I would take this up to minus seven. So I think you're getting good value here at minus six. But is that a put it in the contest kind of thing? Like, is that half point enough given the other games that are still left on the board and the other ones that we've been talking about? This would be. I'd add it to the list. Definitely. Minus six.”
KC 33, CLE 29 — Chiefs beat Browns 33-29; Chiefs won by only 4, busting -6 (ESPN box score).
“No means we were going to love to take New Orleans here. This was going to be such an easy bet for us. A home dog. No one believes in them. New Orleans at home in that city with all those fans. But now we have a neutral site game. And are you telling me that the Superdome is only worth one and a half points? No, that doesn't make sense. I don't know why I only went from two and a half to four. To me, this line should be six and a half, seven. Right. So I think we're getting major value here on Green Bay. making me a little nervous. It feels like maybe the sports books know something, or maybe they're laying a little trap, but I'm stepping right into it. This is one of those, again, I paired with the money line where I already told you I did the Bucs and the Chiefs. I have a bunch of Chiefs, Green Bay, Green Bay and Buccaneers money line bets as well. So it's one of these things where I just can't see a scenario that Green Bay loses this game. They have, if not more talent on the defensive side now, because, again, New Orleans, people don't understand. Their defense has actually been one of the better things about them the last two, three years. They have a lot of injuries on that defensive front right now. So, again, everything just points to this really being a train wreck kind of season for the Saints. And starting off the year, Winston with this offensive, not question marks, but I know that they have a great offensive line, and I know they have Kamara. But the other aspects of this team, it just frightens me. And Green Bay biggest weakness is they can be run on So maybe that why this number is so low But I drinking the Kool I taking Green Bay here I riding with the public again where I have to take this number at this exact time because I just think it just incredibly undervalued Do we think we potentially adding this to the contest We could be, but again, it's going to be one of these hard things where it's like, you know, I don't like having more than two or three favorites in our contest. Like it served us well last year. We were kind of dog heavy and that really worked out for us last year. So I do love the number. I'm just worried it's going to keep running up that by the time it gets the contest, it might be minus five, minus six. Well, look, we can evaluate, right? We've got”
NO 38, GB 3 — Saints beat Packers 38-3 at the neutral-site game in Jacksonville; Packers lost outright, busting -4 (ESPN box score).
“I get to love the excitement, especially that Miami is kind of one of these teams where people are so insured up to a, but two has already gone through everything. Mac Jones is gonna be going through this year, the growth and the fault, like the fault of a rookie quarterback. So the fact that this line isn't a pick, I'm getting a plus number taking the money line here with Miami. I love the value on Miami, but again, this is one of these I wouldn't put in the contest cause it's a little, it's a little scary chat with two here because we're kind of stepping off into the deep end where it's like we're gonna know pretty quick if two has got it or not because last year was just a wash for the kid he was coming off a major hip injury didn't really know the offense no excuses now two has had a whole off season he's got a ton of weapons around him this is really gonna be a statement game for miami so i am a believer in miami but not a believer enough to put them in the contest All right Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams”
NE 16, MIA 17 — Dolphins beat Patriots 17-16 outright; moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“[38:53] 16 to 1 conference. [38:55] Go.”
The Bengals won the AFC Championship (27-24 OT over the Chiefs) to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVI; the Chargers missed the playoffs at 9-8, so this futures pick lost (Wikipedia, 2021-22 NFL playoffs).
“To me, all the science points are the Chargers being a value in this division, where if you want to bet them to win a division, I love it.”
The Chiefs won the AFC West at 12-5 in 2021; the Chargers finished 9-8, so this futures pick lost (ESPN standings).
“The Chargers are one of those teams where I have bet them at 33 to one a little bit longer actually to win the Superbowl I have bet them at nine I bet them over nine for their season win total”
Chargers finished the 2021 regular season 9-8, exactly matching the 9-win total, so the over pushed (ESPN schedule).
“not here to say that yeah they're gonna win this division they're gonna make the playoffs I'm here to talk about the different things you can find value in Derek Carr right now again we have an article coming out either this week or next week with my favorite long shots he's 38 to one to lead the league in passing yards I kind of like that value Derek Carr plays an indoor for Las Vegas for half his games and then on the road a lot of these teams he's playing against don't have that great of defenses and they're playing a last place schedule as well so I'm not saying Derek Carr is a top 10 quarterback any measurement I think this guy has enough talent and there's gonna be enough pieces there that he could lead the league in passing at 38 to 1 that's really good value and I would take that chance”
Tom Brady led the NFL with 5,316 passing yards in 2021; Derek Carr finished with 4,804, so this futures pick lost (ESPN passing leaders).
“Even week one, I got the Miami plus three.”
17-16 — Dolphins beat the Patriots 17-16 in Week 1 2021, covering the +3 as home underdogs (ESPN box score).
“I like the Rams.”
The Rams won the NFC West at 12-5 in 2021, so the futures pick cashed (ESPN standings).
“I like the Seahawks.”
The Rams won the NFC West at 12-5 in 2021; the Seahawks finished 7-10, so this futures pick lost (ESPN standings).
“I going to be on Green Bay at minus four week one”
38-3 — Saints beat the Packers 38-3 in Week 1 2021; Green Bay lost outright, busting the -4 spread (ESPN box score).
“I cannot see them getting over eight and a half wins in this division This is one of the bigger under bets I made this season”
Cardinals finished the 2021 regular season 11-6, well over the 8.5-win total, so the under lost (ESPN standings).
“so, do you start piling in to the Colts at over nine? Yeah, it's actually at eight and a half at certain books, but I believe you're talking about FanDuel, our sponsor. So yeah, it's at nine there. Yeah, man, I'm one of those where I like to just try to get an edge on other people where, Like I told you, you're the same mentality. You saw Carson Wentz have the worst year ever last year. And what I'm betting on is this guy is switching it up, moving back to the Midwest, you know, like a whole new scenery, which, again, people that play sports, you know how it's just so much mental. So much that goes into what you do in your craft is mental because like Darius can tell us, man, these guys are all the best of the best. The difference between the best player in the league and the worst player, it's not that much physically, but mentally it's huge. Like the best guys are just so much smarter than the other guys. So when I'm looking at a guy like Carson, I saw that his best career year was under Frank Reich as his offensive coordinator. So again, I'm looking at a guy who could have won MVP. His team was the number one seed, went to the Super Bowl, and won with a different quarterback. To now that he's back with that same head coach with the Colts, where, again, we can debate about the Eagles' talent against this Colts team. This Colts team is unbelievably talented from the defensive side and the offensive line, both the D-line and offensive line is up there. And for me, I just love the value of this division where everyone's going to come and everyone going to be talking about the Titans Everyone really high on the Titans But we just seen it time and time again Chad the turnover rate in the NFL These same teams don win the same division every year in and out So for me, loving this win total so much is just because of this division. Like, I have them sweeping Houston. I have them sweeping the Jags. So right there, that's four wins. And I get people's concerns about Carson Wentz coming back right now. But to me, the guys are already back in practice. Two weeks to get right. Maybe he'll be a little sloppy against the Seahawks week one. But I just see this thing going to get on a roll here. So for me, I've adjusted back complete to where I was, where I'm back all in on the Colts because I think Carson's got the reps in right now.”
Colts finished the 2021 regular season 9-8, exactly matching the 9-win total, so the over pushed (ESPN schedule).
“That's like one of these things where they're a home dog plus three week one. I'm going to be betting the Houston Texans, even though I'm about to shit on them for the next 10 minutes. So it's definitely one of these things where I have to separate myself from being a fan and just look at the data. And man, it is ugly. It is crazy how bad this team is. They literally have eight running backs all of whom you heard of but most of them are probably about 25 to 30 years old which is not that big of a deal but it just shows that this team isn structured right where it like why do you guys have nine veteran running backs? Why don't you just draft one or two guys and have one veteran in there, show them the way. And it's just a really weird, organized, structured team. So I'm with Darius though. I love Tyrod Taylor. I just think he's a constant pro. And it's again, one of these things where week one, if I'm going to take this shitty ass roster, but it's Tyrod Taylor going against a rookie quarterback and a rookie head coach against the Jaguars week one, give me the plus three, Chad. So it's one of these where I'm taking their season win total under. But week one, people take Houston plus three. That's such an easy, easy bet week one.”
37-21 — Texans beat the Jaguars 37-21 in Week 1 2021; Houston won outright as home dogs, easily covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“So for me, it's definitely a value-based bet here taking Atlanta to win this division of plus 700.”
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the 2021 NFC South at 13-4; the Atlanta Falcons finished 7-10, so Atlanta did not win the division (ESPN standings).
“atlanta getting a super bowl that's the next regime but i do like what they're doing for this year alone all right so eight to one god you've got me told seven seven to one you've got me totally convinced that that is the team to bet in the nfc south again value the best value tampa one to two uh new orleans three to one atlanta seven to one carolina ten to one uh the total on um uh atlanta is seven and a half to one if you like them at seven to one to win the division should we also be betting them over seven and a half yeah the win total is interesting they have seven and a half and so does carolina it was kind of interesting where the bookmakers say okay one of these teams isn't is you know probably only gonna win four games you guys have to figure out”
The Atlanta Falcons finished the 2021 season 7-10, under the 7.5-win over total (ESPN standings). (ATL 2021: 7-10)
“seven and a half and so does carolina it was kind of interesting where the bookmakers say okay one of these teams isn't is you know probably only gonna win four games you guys have to figure out which one that is so for me just looking on paper and the coaching staffs again nothing against Matt Ruhl I thought he did a great job there last year they had plenty of tough games especially with Teddy Bridgewater as a quarterback but I cannot do it cannot back Sam Darnold I just I need to see it to believe it I'm one of those people where like I might miss a year I might be late on that But I feel safer betting against it than betting for it. So for them, I'm on the under with Carolina.”
The Carolina Panthers finished the 2021 season 5-12, well under the 7.5-win total (ESPN standings). (CAR 2021: 5-12)
“And with the Buccaneers, I have to bet the under. I mean, it's rare you have a team like Kansas City Chiefs last year. I think they were 14-2. That was crazy. Like, the fact that they won a Super Bowl and then the following year they were 14-2, I think that says more about, again, the division they were in and the kind of stuff they were playing against with the Chiefs, where this year the Buccaneers, they're one of the youngest teams in all of football. Again, they have Tom Brady. Okay, he's a great leader. That defense is incredibly young. The offensive line is very young as well. So for me, if I need to fade a team coming off the Super Bowl, I want to fade a team that's very young. Again, we saw what happened with the 49ers. The 49ers, they made it to the Super Bowl. They completely fell apart the next year because they were a young team. We saw it with the Rams, and they were a young team. They made it all the way to the Super Bowl. They kind of fell apart the following season. So that's what I'm betting on. I'm kind of betting on the overturn of the league and the fact that everyone in their grandmas, we've been on the buck this year. They're just such a hype team because they brought back every single starter. So that's what my job is, people. My job is trying to find value and betting against these kind of things because it happens a lot. These teams, it just does not work out the way people think it's going to work out. So just on value alone, I have to bet the Buccaneers under just because that's such a high number for them. I think it's, what, 12 now for their win total? Yeah, it's up to 12. Yeah, it's too high. So I have to take that under.”
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished the 2021 season 13-4, over the 12-win under total (ESPN standings). (TB 2021: 13-4)
“I did give them out to win the Super Bowl because I believe in their defense”
The Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl LVI 23-20 over Cincinnati; the Miami Dolphins finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs, so Miami to win the title lost (ESPN; Wikipedia).
“It's one of these where, again, I hate being that guy, Chad, but this is why you hired me. I have to be the person that just stops people's happiness, and I kind of hit them with the truth. And we've seen it time and time again. It's one of my favorite things, too, about the NFL. So there's four teams, right, every year in the conference finals. And we've seen it. History just tells us every time of these four teams, one of them is not even going to make the playoffs. So, again, you can go through it. Maybe every now and then some year, all four teams do make it. But it's just it's just the way it works that one of these teams is going to fall out. So if I just give you the four teams, the Chiefs, the Bills, Tampa Bay and Green Bay, who feels the most likely to fall out? It feels like it's the Bills because they're an unproven team where everything went right last year. Josh Allen went from 40% completion percentage to above 60%. He went from, you know, the 24th, 25th ranked quarterback in NFL to top four in one season. He made that big of a jump. So my job here is to say, what is the most likely thing? And will history keep repeating itself? And I look at this team, there's so many parallels with them and the Eagles. The Eagles, the year they went to the Super Bowl with Carson Wentz, they were the number one seed coming out. Carson Wentz had an incredible season. And we saw what happened the following year. The NFL kind of figured out Carson Wentz a little bit. They kind of figured out the Eagles offense a little bit. The Eagles went nine and seven because everything wasn't as nice and easy as it was the year before. And I think this is the same thing we're going to see with the Bills. The Bills kind of steamrolled their team, like their division last year. They had a couple of coin flip games. I remember that Rams game at home. They should have lost. They ended up winning that one. It's one of these things where a lot of things went right for the Rams last year. I mean, the Bills. And I'm betting on things not to go right. And the fact that they're right now, they're the top three of the highest bet total on overs. Everyone's pounding this over. It opened up at 10 and a half. I've seen some books now at 11, but it's plus like 130, plus 140 to take the under. It's it's been it's been one of the biggest public bets so far this year, their win total. So I have this team grant out 10.2 wins. I love the under here, especially when it's sitting at 11. I think the bills are, you know, I don't hate the value on them for the division because who are they going up against?”
The Buffalo Bills finished the 2021 season exactly 11-6, pushing the flat 11-win under total (ESPN standings). (BUF 2021: 11-6)
“in on the Patriots, but when I ask them, what are they going to do week seven when Cam goes down, and it's Mac Jones coming in, they don't really have an answer. It's like, I'm with them. It feels like it should be the Patriots to be that team. But I've told you many times, I'm so in on Miami just because on paper, this defense, without a doubt, to me, is a top five defense in this league. I think Miami's secondary is easily number one in the league. They have the best corners. They have really good safeties. I'm banking on Tua taking a step up here. And it's just because of the value I'm getting played out. Like, I think the value is good enough to take them a 40 to one or 35 to one in the Super Bowl, where to me, this division, it's it's up for grabs. I know how people feel about the bills, but like I'm trying to explain to them what's more likely, Josh Allen to get this huge contract and then throw for 60 percent again. No, it's not. We've just seen the NFL that choose and spit these guys out. Like I'm trying to explain to people. Carson Wentz team got to a Super Bowl and won. He's on a different team. Jared Goff took his team to a Super Bowl. he's on a different team it's one of these things where your boy Mitch Trubisky kept taking you guys to the playoffs he the backup now to Josh Allen it just one of those just so much turnover that what I betting on it nothing against Josh Allen I believe the hype I think this guy the real deal as a quarterback but I just bet on there being regression because we just seen it time and time again There's just always regression in the NFL.”
The Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl LVI 23-20 over Cincinnati; the Miami Dolphins finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs, so Miami to win the title lost (ESPN; Wikipedia).
“Bet the under, nine wins for the Cowboys.”
The Dallas Cowboys finished the 2021 season 12-5, well over the under 9-win total (ESPN standings). (Dallas Cowboys 2021: 12-5)
“divisions because the Dallas Cowboys have the shortest odds to win the Super Bowl of any team in the NFC East at about 30 to one. Okay. Then it's the Washington football team at about 50 to one. Then it's the New York Giants at about 70 to one. And then the Philadelphia Eagles are at about 75 to one. Agree or disagree with these odds, Simon, you're up first. Give me your take on the four teams and their Super Bowl futures. Jay, you want to hear a dirty little secret? Yes. I've bet every single team's future Super Bowl odds in this division, except the Cowboys, just because it's one of these things where I'm literally betting on a team right now to win a division, which means they have a home field game in the playoffs at greater than 50 to one odds. I'll take that any day of the week. I don't think the Giants are good at all. I don't think the Eagles are good at all. Washington, we've talked about it. I believe in that team.”
The Los Angeles Rams beat Cincinnati 23-20 to win Super Bowl LVI; Washington finished 7-10 and missed the playoffs (ESPN).
“I bet him as well. I just, I love, like I watch his tape. I love that kid. Same to me as the highest ceiling right now for any of these kids coming out next year in the draft. A little added bonus for the draft, just for people to get primed.”
Travon Walker was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft (Jaguars); Sam Howell was selected in the 7th round (pick 144) by Washington (ESPN).
“I have them at 12.5 wins where the Bears, I'm talking about taking their season win total over 7.5. It's because I have them 8.5 wins.”
Bears finished the 2021 regular season 6-11, under the 7.5-win line, so the over lost (Wikipedia). (Bears 2021: 6-11)
“So for right now, I have AFC champion. I have AFC ticket for the Browns at 10 to 1. [36:55] So it's one of those where that's my play right now.”
Browns finished 8-9 and missed the 2021 playoffs; the Cincinnati Bengals won the AFC, so the Browns AFC future lost (Wikipedia). (Browns 2021: 8-9)
“I'm in on Tennessee now, minus 120 for the division on our friends at FanDuel.”
Titans went 12-5 and clinched the 2021 AFC South for the second straight season, so the division future won (Wikipedia). (Titans 2021: 12-5, AFC South champions)
“120 to one Trey Lance to an MVP.”
Aaron Rodgers won the 2021 AP NFL MVP award; Trey Lance did not win, so the MVP futures bet lost (Wikipedia).
“The team I'm most comfortable taking under is definitely the 49ers. Just not only because of that division, but because of all the uncertainty at QB position, where I do think that they're going to make a switch eventually to the rookie. and to back a rookie over 10 and a half wins, I just cannot do that. Especially a kid coming out of North Dakota State. It just feels like that's a lot to ask of a kid. I know Shanahan's unbelievable and they were basically if you just look at a metric of the highest injured team last year they were number one They had the most injuries by far So a lot of professionals like them to bump like the bump up this year just on that simple fact But when I look in that division, I just think to myself, I like the Rams better. I like the Seahawks better. And again, we can say we want about Kingsbury, but I feel better about taking Arizona what they have around Kyler than I do taking the 49ers about what they have. So for me, I'm just not drinking the Kool-Aid on the 49ers this year. I just think there's too much hype going into the season on them. So that's an under I really like this year at 10.5.”
49ers finished the 2021 regular season 10-7, under the 10.5-win line, so the under won (Wikipedia). (49ers 2021: 10-7)
“So looking at win totals, nine wins for the Saints. We talked about it earlier in the year too, Chad. I like them for best record at, I think it was 30-1 or 40-1. And just a really outside shot team that the Saints aren't just going to be getting talked about when people aren't realizing they have all the pieces there. I think that's a team that's really been slept on.”
Saints finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs; the Packers (13-4) and Buccaneers (13-4) had the NFL's best 2021 regular-season records, so the Saints did not have the league's best record (Wikipedia). (Saints 2021: 9-8; Packers 2021: 13-4)
“Simon. Yeah, Chad, you know, we're already locked in. We did our Super Bowl futures in February. We did. This is one of the teams that I made you put way too much money on that didn't get Watson. Like I told you, they're going to get Watson. But like you said, I know the whole fits thing, but I will keep going back into it until they get knocked out of the playoffs or don't make the playoffs. This Washington team is that Denver team 2.0 that had Von Miller, where Peyton Manning He had a dead arm. He couldn't throw the ball further than 15 yards. But all you had was just an incredibly dominant defense with offensive weapons around it. And I think that's what we have here in Washington. We have a team with a ton of weapons on offense. Gibson, great running back. Like you say McLaurin great receiver And that defensive line man You literally will not find a better defense line on football this year is this is a Chase Young bet But me and Chad I guess Raheem too We are all in on Washington football team”
Washington finished 7-10 and missed the 2021 playoffs; the Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl LVI over the Bengals, so the Washington title future lost (Wikipedia). (Washington 2021: 7-10)
“but bringing that on the head every year the easiest bet to make is just bet the cowboys under it's a team that will always be propped up because their fan base is so diehard and so loyal they're across the country so even state to state they're gonna be bet up you know regardless of where you live every year guys you bet this under and you bet them not to make the playoffs and it's i mean what is it 25 years if you've been doing it you're up a lot of money year to year so it's just one of those where it sounds very simple but it's just the way it is the pressure everything that goes to being with the Cowboys. It's not even that I dislike Dak. I think he does everything he can to try to put that team in its best position. It's just Jerry. He's just, the way he's drafted for them, like they didn't need another stud receiver. They had a great receiving core, but he couldn't help himself. He had to take a receiver in the first round last year where this kid's incredible. Their defense is by far the worst in football where they should have just been drafting defensive players. So for me, the Cowboys, that will always be a fade. I don't care that it's up to 17 games. It's just one of those where I had them graded out seven and a half. I think I bumped them up to eight once it went to 17 games, and it's still way under nine and a half.”
Cowboys finished the 2021 regular season 12-5, well over the 9.5-win line, so the under (fade) lost (Wikipedia). (Cowboys 2021: 12-5)
“the bills over 10 and a half. To me, one of the easiest things to stare at and say, okay, red flags all over the place, 10 and a half bills. We're talking about a 17 game schedule. Who doesn think the bills are going to get 11 wins this year Everyone does Everyone looks at that bills team They say that an easy bet 10 and a half especially in a 17 games Why wouldn you bet that So every show you're going to listen to, everyone, I'm telling you, they're going to tell you to take the over 10 and a half. Easiest bet looking at this, under 10 and a half for the Bills.”
11-6 — The Buffalo Bills went 11-6 in the 2021 regular season, over the 10.5-win line, so the Under 10.5 futures bet lost.
“And for the Colts, people are already going to know I'm all in on the Colts. I bet them a 10. I bet them a 9.5. I know their schedule is really hard, but I just look at a team that had the corpse we call Philip Rivers leading them in the playoffs. And he made things happen, even though he was not a good quarterback last year. If Carson Wentz can just figure it out, he's soft. I'm not going to lie. That man is soft. He let a rookie come in and take his job. That is a soft man. But Carson should bounce back. He's surrounded by just people that want good for him. Like Frank is a great guy to have coaching you. So for me, everything lines up where I just really like everything that's happening for the Colts. So that's a no-brainer to me to take that over with the Colts.”
9-8 — The Indianapolis Colts went 9-8 in the 2021 regular season, under the 10-win line, so the Over 10 futures bet lost.
“But I feel like the easiest bet, and I'm going to keep saying it the whole year, is just going to be that Houston under. I know it's a really low total, but four and a half, I don't care.”
4-13 — The Houston Texans went 4-13 in the 2021 regular season, under the 4.5-win line, so the Under 4.5 futures bet won.
“I don't know why it's this number. So for me, I just went the other way and I just took them to win the AFC at plus a thousand. I didn't touch this total just because I figured, you know what? I'll take something where I could see them get into the AFC championship. I don't know. Maybe they're going to come in as a wild card at nine or nine and eight, whatever weird number they're going to come in at. There's just something weird about this number as if the Vegas knows something because how is this not double digits? This is a double digit win team. So that's the reason I'm staying away from it. There's just something stinky about it.”
27-24 — The Cincinnati Bengals won the AFC Championship 27-24 (OT) over Kansas City on January 30, 2022, to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVI; the Browns went 8-9 and missed the playoffs, so the +1000 futures bet on Cleveland to win the AFC lost.
“I bet Tua to win MVP.”
Aaron Rodgers won the 2021 NFL MVP award (39 of 50 votes); Tua Tagovailoa received no MVP votes, so the Tua MVP futures bet lost.
“I just bet on the Clippers I think there actually is pretty good value at plus 400”
Series: PHX 4, LAC 2 — The Phoenix Suns beat the Los Angeles Clippers 4-2 in the 2021 Western Conference Finals, so the +400 futures bet on the Clippers to win the series lost.
“again, I like the upside of Hertz. I think he does have weapons around him. The O-line's really good. You never know. I just think the value is there that, again, on FanDuel, our friends at FanDuel, it's 75 to one right now for him to get MVP. So it sounds crazy. It doesn't make any sense right now. It's the same thing with Lamar Jackson. You're just looking at someone that has high upside that we know they have the ability to do it and they have the weapons around them to do it. So this is simply just a play that I think he has the upside. Could he be benched week six for Nick Mullins or Joe Flacco? That's a possibility, but it's worth the risk of 75 to one.”
Aaron Rodgers won the 2021 NFL MVP award (39 of 50 votes); Jalen Hurts received no MVP votes, so the +7500 Hurts MVP futures bet lost.
“[40:16] plus 220, I love the value there. To end it on the 49ers, again, I told you, I think Jimmy's [40:22] getting traded. So my two bets I've done so far, I bet on Trey Lance plus 240 and I bet on Taysom [40:29] hill plus 220 start for the saints but i i really sharp group came in and they bet on um”
41-33 — Jimmy Garoppolo started at quarterback for the 49ers in their Week 1, 2021 game at Detroit (a 41-33 win on Sept 12, 2021); Trey Lance did not start, so the +240 prop lost.
“I'm not that loud Taysom Hill, but I just think he's going to be better in practice and he's going to do stuff that Sean Payton, just by chance, might start him just for week one. for the first series. And that's all we need, Chad. All we need is they got to start the first snap in the first series. So at plus 220, I really like that value for the Saints. All we need is Winston to have a terrible, terrible preseason and he's back on the bench. So for me at that value, plus 220, I love the value there. To end it on the 49ers, again, I told you, I think Jimmy's getting traded. So my two bets I've done so far, I bet on Trey Lance plus 240 and I bet on Taysom hill plus 220 start for the saints but i i really sharp group came in and they bet on um”
38-3 — Jameis Winston started at quarterback for the Saints in their Week 1, 2021 game vs Green Bay (a 38-3 win, played in Jacksonville on Sept 12, 2021); Taysom Hill did not start, so the +220 prop lost.
“I actually made [23:09] this bet earlier in the year and the odds are still good. In my opinion, James Harden's plus [23:12] 900 to be the NBA finals MVP.”
Series: MIL 4, PHX 2 — Giannis Antetokounmpo won 2021 NBA Finals MVP as the Bucks beat the Suns 4-2; James Harden's Nets did not reach the Finals, so the +900 Harden Finals MVP futures bet lost.
“So the Chargers bumped all the way up to 40-1 on the news that he was – they were at 32-1. They went all the way up to 40-1 because people thought he was going to Denver.”
23-20 — Rams beat the Bengals 23-20 to win Super Bowl LVI; the Chargers finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs, so their Super Bowl futures bet lost (Wikipedia, Super Bowl LVI; ESPN 2021 NFL standings).
“I took them division when it was available.”
Chiefs won the AFC West at 12-5; the Chargers finished second at 9-8, so the division bet lost (ESPN 2021 NFL standings).
“But I just love this Colts team. I mean, we saw what they did with Rivers who retired. So for me, Carson Wentz, I'm buying low on him. I just love the upside of the Colts here. It's 10 wins right now, I believe, is their total. Colts and Panthers, both plus money on the over. Panthers plus 118, Colts plus 110. So a lot of value in both of those plays.”
Colts finished the 2021 regular season 9-8, under the 10-win total (ESPN 2021 NFL standings).
“I people are going to hate it because they think I'm a dire Eagles fan. But Eagles under ran six and a half had a great out of five point seven. I just think that too many people are just falling in love with the idea of Jalen Hurts instead of watching the tape and looking at the numbers of what he did last year, where I think he could be a good quarterback. But I just think of him as what, again, Eagles took him high up, but it's one of those where it was like a Russell Wilson effect.”
Eagles finished the 2021 regular season 9-8, over the 6.5-win line, so the under lost (ESPN 2021 NFL standings).
“plus 3,200 right now to have best record in NFL on FanDuel for the [43:08] Saints. [43:08] I think that's a really good value”
Saints finished the 2021 regular season 9-8; Green Bay and Tampa Bay tied for the NFL's best record at 13-4, so the Saints did not have the best record (ESPN 2021 NFL standings).
“So I rarely would recommend this. And, again, this is on Fandle. You might be able to find better odds elsewhere, but we won't say elsewhere. The Chiefs to go 17-0. I rarely do this, but there are certain books that have them at 40-1. They have them right now 27-1 to go 17-0. I get it. It's a stupid bet. I just love it because I just love Mahomes coming into this year really pissed off. I know their division is really tough. The AFC is really tough. But everything lines up where I could just see the Chiefs. Even Mahomes is talking about it. They asked him what his goal is this year. He said his dream is to go 20-0. That's the goal now for the rest of his life. He wants to go 20-0. So to me, a guy like that motivated, that's the only person I'd be putting that kind of money on.”
Chiefs finished the 2021 regular season 12-5, not 17-0, so the perfect-season bet lost (ESPN 2021 NFL standings).
“I've learned my lesson, and as a Sixers fan, I could not be happier. No one's talking about the Sixers. Take the Sixers. I think it's still plus 300 certain Bucs to win the East. Still plus 700 to win it all. Again, if the Nets play the Bucs and the series go six or seven. They come to Philadelphia. Philadelphia wins the first game. They're up 1-0. You'll have a very easy hedge out on the Nets or the Bucs. So to me, I just think it's a ton of value right now in the Sixers.”
76ers lost the 2021 East semifinals 4-3 to Atlanta; Milwaukee (not Philadelphia) went on to win the East, so the Sixers-to-win-the-East bet lost (Wikipedia, 2021 NBA playoffs).
“next thing i do i do i have a few questions here but i'll start here with golden state 45 to 1 to win the West. Am I an idiot that I bet on that? Because I just love Steph Curry. I just feel like the value is there that he can literally will that team if he can make it into the playoffs”
112-117 — Warriors lost the 2021 play-in game to Memphis 117-112 in overtime, missing the playoffs and the West title (Wikipedia, 2021 NBA playoffs).
“Yeah, I basically, it opened at 15 and a half. And I was like, okay, that's good value. I could see him, you know, the Patriots taking him or some team taking him from that 10 to 15 range. And then all the hype came out about you know Chris Sims came out and said like he was the first one I believe to say Mac was going to go in the three spot And I know he close to Shanahan So of all the people that would know this it is Chris Sims That guy is actually friends with Shanahan. But at the same time, I was like, you know, Shanahan knows he's in the media. I think he might just be trying to have people look one way while he's going another way. So, yeah, man, once it moved to three and a half over under at a plus number, I was just like, in what world is the fifth rated quarterback on almost everyone's big board going to be the third pick overall? They gave up three first round picks to get this guy. And people are comping him to Kirk Cousins. Three first round picks for Kirk Cousins. In what world do we live in? So I'm heavily, heavily bet where I could win these other bets.”
Mac Jones was drafted 15th overall by New England, well over the 3.5 draft-position line and not at pick 3, so the over won.
“And I already talked about pits over five and a half. You can get that some books at plus 250 now. So there's a couple of things I'm betting. Things are going to happen. So I'm betting a crazy good value that they're going to happen that way.”
Kyle Pitts was drafted 4th overall by Atlanta, under the 5.5 draft-position line, so the over lost.
“give me your best bets so again i do weird stuff i'm all about crazy value and looking to be like if i go three for 10 i made a profit in the draft because i just like to bet on weird stuff that happened so right now you can get 50 to one that fields or trey lance will be the second pick overall”
The No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft was QB Zach Wilson (New York Jets), not Fields or Lance, so the bet lost.
“So I'm praying the Bengals take an O-lineman at the fifth pick. And right now you can get plus 200, plus 250 at certain books that they draft an O-lineman. So that's another bet I really like right now.”
With the No. 5 pick, Cincinnati selected WR Ja'Marr Chase, not an offensive lineman, so the bet lost.
“I feel like it a lock to win best film editing at minus 118”
Sound of Metal (editor Mikkel E.G. Nielsen) won Best Film Editing at the 93rd Academy Awards, so the pick won.
“football their total right now is four and a half for Houston I like how do you not take that under”
The Houston Texans finished the 2021 season 4-13, under the 4.5-win total.
“I like to take unders because the public mainly is going to come in and take over. So I could get down early on unders again. We going to talk about this for the next few months We let the dust settle but there three or four that I have to hit right away so the lines i think they a team that going to tank this year i hit their under five”
The Detroit Lions finished the 2021 season 3-13-1, under the 5-win total.
“the eagles six and a half at plus money for the under right now because the area i live in it's a lot of philadelphia eagles fans they're going to be heavily slated towards the over so right now six and a half people have been taking the over so it's plus 123 on the under for the eagles this is not a team that I can see getting seven wins.”
The Philadelphia Eagles finished the 2021 season 9-8, over the 6.5-win total, so the under lost.
“So the Bears are sitting at seven, plus money towards the under. When I look at that division, it's so tempting to take the over. It feels like they're baiting me to take the over because we know the Green Bay runs that division. They're the most complete team. Minnesota has tons of holes. It's hard to believe in Kirk. it's one of those where I don't believe in the Lions either. So if I don't believe in the Bears, the Lions, or the Vikings, someone's got to get the second amount on Wednesday. I'm having a battle right now with myself between them and the Vikings, but I just can't back Andy Dalton. I just do not have faith in Andy Dalton. So for me, plus money, taking the under at seven, I like that number a lot. I have it 6.8, so I'm getting a good number there at seven. It's a fair number to push, so I like the under.”
The Chicago Bears finished the 2021 season 6-11, under the 7-win total.
“move the number. What is your take on Carson Wentz to the Colts and Super Bowl futures? I mean, it shifted it from 25 to 1 to what, 22 to 1, I think. A little bit. I mean, a little bit. A little bit. So basically, from my standpoint, like them and the Dolphins, we talked earlier, both teams, I'm invested about two grand each into them to win 50K each on both teams. So it's teams I'm definitely interested in. The Carson Wentz move is just interesting from every standpoint.”
The Indianapolis Colts finished the 2021 season 9-8 and missed the playoffs; the Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl LVI (ESPN standings; Wikipedia Super Bowl LVI).
“So basically, from my standpoint, like them and the Dolphins, we talked earlier, both teams, I'm invested about two grand each into them to win 50K each on both teams.”
The Miami Dolphins finished the 2021 season 9-8 and missed the playoffs on tiebreakers; the Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl LVI (ESPN standings; Wikipedia Super Bowl LVI).
“and other than the only reason I'm playing this Colts one is just the main fact of that team Carson if he can get right that's crazy good value and the division they're in the only team we're really scared of are the Titans and we know what the Titans are they got Tannehill they got Derrick Henry they have a great offense but they got a bad defense so at this value them and the Titans are the same exact value right now. I just have a hard time seeing the Titans repeat in that division. So I do like the Colts at this value of plus 2,800.”
The Indianapolis Colts finished the 2021 season 9-8 and missed the playoffs; the Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl LVI, beating the Bengals 23-20 (ESPN standings; Wikipedia Super Bowl LVI).
“aren't talking about enough are the Raiders. So the Raiders have a couple of first round picks they can give up and their car to Houston. We saw the Raiders go toe to toe last year with the Chiefs. I like that upside at 5,000 50 to one because I don't know, man, that Raiders team, they're going to have a packed stadium next year if they're allowed to. And that's a big home field advantage. And I know Gruden's wilted here last two years at the end of the season. His teams have just fallen apart. But I've seen it on offense. They have the weapons. They have all these weapons around their car. That team can put up points. And if you're getting Watson in there, man, that could be a really special team. So that whole little bunch there, I would say they're my favorite. I like the Raiders idea. The Raiders at 50-1 feels Bucs-esque.”
The Las Vegas Raiders made the 2021 playoffs (10-7) but lost the AFC Wild Card game 26-19 to the Cincinnati Bengals; the Los Angeles Rams went on to win Super Bowl LVI (ESPN standings; Wikipedia 2021-22 NFL playoffs).
“That front four, they really got to Tom. I know that he had a pretty good game against them, but that's playoff Tom. I mean, we know. We just saw what he did in his playoffs. but this team feels like that's all they're missing is a quarterback. And it doesn't have to be Watson for them. I feel like if they can just get a guy just like Alex Smith that can control the clock, protect the ball, and just not put the team in bad positions, that's a real, real sleeper team with that defense. So at plus 6,000, no real clear-cut team in that division, that's great. I do. I like that team's second year, the Washington football team. I know a lot of people like the Giants, but I don't believe in Daniel Jones. I'm just not going to bank on them next year. For that division, for the best value, I think the Washington football team, Super Bowl future, that's really good value.”
Washington finished the 2021 season 7-10 and missed the playoffs; the Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl LVI (ESPN standings; Wikipedia Super Bowl LVI).
“Man, just looking at this game on paper, it's – like we get it right now, the props. But I just love the first half to be low scoring. I just think like exactly everything that guy just broke down. it just feels that that that's a smart play over time with your money is to take that under 10 points in the first quarter flukes might happen we might get a busted tackle quick return weird things but if you're just playing the numbers and the data exactly the under 10 points in the first quarter that that a good play um all right under 10 points in the first quarter uh as i mentioned before stucky on the action network NFL podcast has talked about this trend And if the sample size of the Super Bowl isn big enough”
Q1: TB 7-KC 3 (Final: TB 31-KC 9) — Super Bowl LV's first quarter ended Buccaneers 7, Chiefs 3 — exactly 10 combined points, landing on the under/over 10 first-quarter-points line for a push (ESPN box score).
“So their favorite one, which I'm right there with them, is total field goals over one and a half in the first half. It's minus 125, the juice. I love the play. I love that. They're pretty much banking on these guys having drives and then just getting tight in the red zone in the first half. So for my first play, my favorite one, I really do like that play by them. The over one and a half first half field goals.”
2 FGs in 1st half (Chiefs: 49, 34 yd); Final: TB 31-KC 9 — Kansas City kicked two field goals in the first half of Super Bowl LV (49 and 34 yards by Butker), clearing the over 1.5 total first-half-field-goals line (ESPN box score).
“The next one will be either team two-point conversion. Yes, plus 230. And again, all these lines are from our friends at DraftKings. Just a great value on a number that we both know these teams, their head coaches love to go for two. Bruce loves to go for two. Andy Reid loves to go for two. With two risky coaches in a game that is all about taking high-risk plays to try to win a winner's take-all game, I just love the fact that if any team gets down by a weird number, we're pretty much guaranteed to get a two-point play attempt at any point in this game. If you're willing to bet these weird props I'm going to be giving out today, This is one of these higher ones up there. I love either team to score two points. I love this one I feel like this one is definitely going to make our list I like it because of the number I feel more comfortable betting on something that I feel great about at plus 230”
TB 31-KC 9 — No team attempted a two-point conversion in Super Bowl LV; all four touchdowns (Gronkowski x2, Brown, Fournette) were followed by a standard extra point (ESPN box score scoring summary).
“because it's a minus 114 but longest td plus uh 45.5 over yards minus 114 i just think again we talk about these two offenses they're they're very aggressive against defenses that are pretty aggressive I know the Chiefs do like to run a cover two zone where they do drop back to safeties a lot but eventually Brady's going to get them there's no one better in the history of the NFL reading defenses so we'll talk about him a little bit later on but Scotty Miller he's the kind of guy we saw last week where he's just one big one big play kind of guy and I could see him getting behind this Chiefs defense. And same goes with the Buccaneers against Tyreek Hill. We saw Tyreek Hill have a historical day the last time these teams played. And with Sammy Watkins back, he can do the same kind of thing where he can open things up for him and the other receivers. So I do really like this play, Long's TD over 45 and a half.”
Longest TD: Fournette 27-yd run; Final: TB 31-KC 9 — The longest touchdown in Super Bowl LV was Leonard Fournette's 27-yard touchdown run, under the 45.5-yard line (ESPN box score scoring summary lists only four TDs: two Gronkowski receptions, a Brown reception, and Fournette's 27-yard run).
“over four and a half sacks plus 120 in Super Bowl 55.”
4 total sacks (TB 3, KC 1); Final: TB 31-KC 9 — Tampa Bay and Kansas City combined for 4 sacks in Super Bowl LV (Buccaneers 3, Chiefs 1), under the 4.5 total-sacks line (ESPN box score).
“And if you love that one with me, Shaq right now, his over is 0.5 sacks plus 120. Love it. Literally this guy, all he needs is to get a sack with another guy and you're at a push for the rest of the game. So I just think there's going to be an opportunity here for Shaq to get a sack on Mahomes, especially he loves holding on to the ball. He's going to be trying to make big plays. he's going to get one on them. It's just only a matter of time. So I think you're getting great value right now in check over 0.5 sacks.”
Shaquil Barrett is credited with a full 1.0 sack of Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl LV, clearing the over 0.5 sacks line (ESPN box score defensive stats). (Barrett 1.0 sack)
“So I really like this underprop for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, rushing or receiving under 48 and a half, plus 105.”
Clyde Edwards-Helaire gained 64 rushing yards and 23 receiving yards (87 combined) in Super Bowl LV, well over the 48.5-yard line, so the under bet lost (ESPN box score). (64 rush + 23 rec = 87 total yds)
“about it this is another one of my favorite props to do high high scoring half second minus one uh 112 right now in DraftKings so you basically just go to DraftKings you go to the Super Bowl you scroll over you click on halves you scroll down and I'll have it right there which says highest scoring half second or first so if I love the under in the first quarter of 10 if I like the under of the first half I have to love the highest scoring half being the second so this is a play I I play every year and it's been good to me throughout the year. So going to keep on playing at a high scoring half second minus one 12.”
1st half: 27 pts, 2nd half: 13 pts (Final: TB 31-KC 9) — The first half of Super Bowl LV outscored the second half 27-13 (Q1+Q2 vs Q3+Q4 per the ESPN scoring summary), so the 'second half is the highest-scoring half' pick lost.
“I know you're going to hate this one, but I love it because it is so funky and it's just fun to bet. And it's another one where you only have to hit it once every 20 years. You're going to get your return on investment. And that's any own lineman to score a touchdown plus 2000. I love it. It's just I just see both these offenses doing something weird down the end zone where Andy Reid, he loves illusions, guys moving in weird places. And all of a sudden, offensive lineman just pops wide open in the end zone. And same goes with Tom Brady. We saw all those years. Was that Brewski? I think it was. Or maybe it was Brable. They would always bring in a defensive guy to do these weird packages for touchdowns. It was Brable. So I could see them doing something similar this year with their alignment. They have two different guys that have scored and have had catches this year on their O-line in the Buccaneers. So I like this one. It's just a fun, weird prop where you can bet 100 to 1-2 catch. And it's any alignment to score a touchdown. I love this one.”
TB 31-KC 9 — No offensive lineman scored a touchdown in Super Bowl LV; the ESPN box score scoring summary shows all four touchdowns going to Gronkowski (x2), Brown, and Fournette.
“where we have two quarterbacks that are willing to take high-risk plays for high rewards, it's total interceptions over one and a half at plus 134. I just think we saw Brady last week. He doesn't care if he's throwing fun picks. If he's taking a deep shot and the guy happens to either pick it off or Mike Evans can catch it, he's fine with that because it's a 50-yard bomb down the field. So with both these offenses, especially with Mahomes having these two offensive linemen out, he's going to be trying to make big plays at all times to counteract that big weakness right now in that team. So I see both these quarterbacks taking a lot of risk in this game, and I love that this one is at plus money. So over one and a half interceptions plus 134. What do you think this correlates to”
2 total INTs (Mahomes 2, Brady 0); Final: TB 31-KC 9 — Patrick Mahomes threw 2 interceptions (to Antoine Winfield Jr. and Devin White) in Super Bowl LV, clearing the over 1.5 total-interceptions line (ESPN box score).
“Yeah. My man, Scotty Miller, receiving yards over 20.5. I just think we know that the Chiefs defense, they're going to eventually sleep on this guy because they're going to be paying attention to Godwin. They're going to be paying attention to Mike Evans. And they're going to be paying attention to Gronk or Bray. And we've seen it with Scotty Miller. He's a big play, boomer bust kind of guy. So all we're hoping for here is just one 25-yard catch from Scotty Miller for a whole Super Bowl. I just think that's really good value, especially minus 112. So that's another one I really love, Scotty Miller over 20 and a half.”
Scotty Miller finished Super Bowl LV with 0 catches for 0 yards on 1 target, missing the over 20.5 receiving-yards line (ESPN box score). (0 rec, 0 yds, 1 target)
“So I wouldn't care too much about the spread. It's one of those, I'm just going to take the money line. But obviously I'll bet the spread and do teasers and everything like that. But it's one of those where I wouldn't get too harped about it. We'll see. We'll see someone put it out there. But basically the team that wins covers like 80 percent of the time. So if even if you take the Buccaneers, you already only have a one to five chance of covering that number if they lose. So it's just one of those where I just feel if you're going to go in on the Buccaneers, just do the money line. Do the money line in the Buccaneers. OK.”
TB 31, KC 9 — Buccaneers won Super Bowl LV 31-9 outright over the Chiefs; Buccaneers moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Brendan Copman, and this is not about the game, so get ready. Curious to hear your thoughts, if you have any yet, on Chargers at 30-1 to win the Super Bowl in the post-Anthony Lynn era. Also, is it worth taking a shot on the Jets at 100-1 in speculation that they get Deshaun Watson or any other Super Bowl flyers worth taking at this point? That's what I was going to talk to you about. We'll probably do a whole show on it just because right now we have three legit quarterbacks that might be on the move. And that's going to really be crazy with these futures where I already locked in. I would say the only one I've locked in right now is the Panthers.”
The Carolina Panthers finished the 2021 NFL season 5-12, missed the playoffs entirely, and did not win Super Bowl LVI (the Los Angeles Rams did) (ESPN team schedule/record).
“I'm going to be taking Green Bay minus three.”
TB 31, GB 26 — Buccaneers beat Packers 31-26 (Packers won by only 5) vs the -3 line; Packers -3 busts (ESPN box score).
“And now that the game is settled, I have to take the Bills. I know it's at plus three. It's down to plus two. This is a coin flip game.”
KC 38, BUF 24 — Chiefs beat Bills 38-24 (Bills lost by 14) vs the +3 line; Bills +3 busts (ESPN box score).
“Not a big balls, but we have chosen a foxhole. We have decided that the Rams plus six and a half is the foxhole bet.”
GB 32, LAR 18 — Packers beat Rams 32-18 (Rams lost by 14) vs the +6.5 line; Rams +6.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“So I with you This is one of these I happily put in with the Chiefs Chiefs 100 By the way you right in your assessment I looking at the data right now in the Action Network app 53 of the bets that is the public coming in on the Browns as 10 dogs 60 of the money the professionals coming in on the Kansas City Chiefs”
KC 22, CLE 17 — Chiefs beat Browns 22-17 (margin +5) vs the -10 line; Chiefs -10 busts (ESPN box score).
“of risky passes here. He doesn't have the same arm strength on his arm. And I just like it that we're getting three and a half still with the Buccaneers. I know it's a square pick, but to me, this is just a smart side here. And I'm going to ask you to be my companion and take that three and a half with me.”
TB 30, NO 20 — Buccaneers beat Saints 30-20 (margin +10) vs the +3.5 line; Buccaneers +3.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“But when I'm looking at this game, I like the Bills at minus six and a half.”
BUF 27, IND 24 — Bills won 27-24 (margin +3) vs the -6.5 line; Bills -6.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“We are going with the Washington football team with plus nine.”
TB 31, WSH 23 — Buccaneers won 31-23 (Washington lost by 8) vs the +9 line; Washington +9 covers (ESPN box score).
“Titans plus three. I like that side. How could that not be the side? Meanwhile,”
BAL 20, TEN 13 — Ravens won 20-13 (Titans lost by 7) vs the +3 line; Titans +3 busts (ESPN box score).
“I like that over 47.”
NO 21, CHI 9 — Saints beat Bears 21-9, combined 30 points vs the over 47 line; over busts (ESPN box score).
“I love the Steelers coming in minus three and a half the fact that it's up to six because all the”
CLE 48, PIT 37 — Browns beat Steelers 48-37 outright vs the Steelers -6 line; Steelers -6 busts (ESPN box score).
“So I like the Giants. [27:06] I like their defense here. [27:07] I like that plus three.”
NYG 23, DAL 19 — Giants beat Cowboys 23-19 outright, covering the +3 spread.
“The better bet is whatever the total rushing yards prop is for Derrick Henry, [42:51] bet the over because he's like 200 yards away from 2000 yards and they are gonna fucking pound [42:58] the ball against a shitty texans defense and watch him get to that 2000 yard mark i love that play”
Derrick Henry rushed 34 times for 250 yards and 2 TDs in Tennessee's 41-38 win over Houston, clearing his rushing-yards prop and finishing over 2,000 yards for the season. (Derrick Henry: 34 car, 250 yds, 2 TD)
“What a great game for Christmas. Just a holiday treat. Just one team that's completely gone in the tank, and the Saints, they're dying for a bounce-back game. But you just said it. All the money on Christmas Day is going to come in on the Saints. This is a pro line, seven and a half. We've taken the Vikings this year as a dog, and that's when they've been covered for us. That Tampa Bay one, that was brutal, but that was on the kicker. That was one of the few games they didn't cover as a big dog. So got to take the Vikings here, especially with the hook.”
NO 52, MIN 33 — Saints beat Vikings 52-33; Minnesota lost by 19, busting the +7.5 spread.
“but divisional game plus four for the 49ers and no one's gonna be betting the 49ers i have to it's the pro it's the pro side you have to take the plus four here for the 49ers well you're 100%”
SF 20, ARI 12 — 49ers beat Cardinals 20-12 outright, covering the +4 spread.
“the road? Sickening. It's sickening. That's what I'm saying. Like these home dogs, this is what I have to do. You have to take the Jack seven and a half. I know they're horrible. I mean, that game last week against the Ravens, I like the Ravens simply just because they beat up on bad teams last week but I played the over in that game for a decent amount of money and it was a horrible”
CHI 41, JAX 17 — Bears beat Jaguars 41-17; Jacksonville lost by 24, busting the +7.5 spread.
“We take this plus 10 and we throw a little on the Jets money line”
NYJ 23, CLE 16 — Jets beat Browns 23-16 outright, covering the +10 spread.
“But divisional game, three and a half, I'll take the Broncos.”
LAC 19, DEN 16 — Chargers beat Broncos 19-16; Denver lost by only 3, covering the +3.5 spread.
“But like you just said, Cowboys have been playing better. The defense has been playing a little bit better. Home dog, public coming in heavy on the Eagles, I'm assuming. Because this number moved from minus one to plus two. So that means a lot. Wow. That's terrifying as an Eagles fan. So yeah, the Eagles fan in me, I hope the Eagles win this game. But the sharper me, the better. I'm happy to take the Cowboys.”
DAL 37, PHI 17 — Cowboys beat Eagles 37-17 outright, covering the +2 spread.
“And everyone's going to be betting on the 49ers. Like you just said, this is one of those where the public's going to come in on the 49ers, and we have to be on the other side of this because this is too big of a number for the Cowboys to be laying at home. And three, it's great. I did like, you know, that three and a half, that was a really nice number. But three, I'm still happy to take that to the Cowboys.”
DAL 41, SF 33 — Cowboys beat the 49ers 41-33 outright, covering the +3 spread.
“And we know the Bears aren't good. So I think they're sucking people in with this three and a half. They're trying to get Bears money, but the smart side is going to be Minnesota. I love this pick. So I hate for you to put Minnesota against your own team, but it's one of those sides I wouldn't mind having the contest. All right, two things, two things. Number one, the number is three, not three and a half. Number two, number two, let me give you some against the spread records. Dallas, three and ten. Denver, eight and five. Carolina, seven and six. So we're smart with Denver and Carolina. We are like betters. No, we're betters with Denver and Carolina. We are gamblers with Dallas. That's what we are. I'm just saying. I'm just saying. By the way, by the way, Minnesota at three, is this a hornet's nest? Are we walking into a hornet's nest? I'll walk into a hornet's nest for you on this one. I love Minnesota. I'm walking into a fucking hornet's nest, all right? Now be my companion. You love Minnesota, even at three. Yeah. I mean, that's even better. It depends on what books you're looking at. Like, I'm looking at two different books right now, but I must have three and a half still for the Bears. But yeah, three, it's even better. It's going to be a public bet, I'm sure, because a lot of people aren't going to be backing the Bears. But this lines up as a situational plus. You are my companion. Now be my companion. As they say, we are going to walk into this hornet's nest together.”
CHI 33, MIN 27 — Bears beat Vikings 33-27; Minnesota lost by 6, busting the -3 spread.
“This next game, this next game, so I'm putting the cards minus six on the list. The next game, the world-beating Chiefs, who look better than they did as Super Bowl champs, visiting the New Orleans Saints, who just got beat up, who have just sort of lost their edge as the number one seed in the NFC. They are three-point dogs at home. Big balls. bet of the week. Big balls! Bet of the week. No. Come on. You gotta. Back to back. Saints just had their first loss in months. Like it? I love it, Chad. It's just a smart number. Three. Everyone, like we talk about all the time, money lines, teasers, all of it are going to be on the Chiefs. and just like last week, they got backdoored and broken. Same thing with this week. We like the Saints here because it's a smart number. And if you're catching a home team, like we talk all the time, getting a small percentage of the bet, and the road team's getting all this money, don't think. You just fade. And more often than not, you're going to be right. And this is a prime situation where everybody's coming in on the Chiefs. So we love the Saints, buddy. Don't overthink it.”
KC 32, NO 29 — Chiefs beat Saints 32-29; New Orleans lost by exactly 3, pushing the +3 spread.
“Yeah. One joke. All right. Thursday night, our favorite football team, the New England Patriots. Oh my God. This is a no brainer. This is a no brainer. They are five point underdogs on the road at the Rams. We know they stayed in LA this week because they played at SoFi on Saturday or Sunday. So we know they're in LA. So we know they're getting in quality practice time. And this is very interesting to me. Very interesting to me. This game opened six and a half. It's now five. Our data is showing 61% of the bets on the Patriots, 66% of the money on the Rams. Yet the line has moved down. So it's a line that's moving in the direction of the bets, not the money, which is interesting. Yeah, it's true that in a normal situation, I would take the Rams here because it's a short week and it's a Thursday night. But the Patriots blowout, that wasn't all about, like we were just saying, it wasn't just the coaching. The special teams performance by the Chargers in the history of the football is graded out as one of the worst special teams performances ever, that's ever been since they've kept data. So not too scared that the New England just blew a team out. Now they're playing the Rams, and we've seen Bill Belichick, He knows how to stop the Rams. We've seen it time and time again. Miami, Florida, running the same defensive scheme as the Patriots, shut the Rams down. So I like the number. I like that it's so big. It's going to be the public side, the Patriots, eventually, because how do you not take this after the win they just had But I with you man I cool with taking the Patriots here It is going to be a public side It going to be a massive public side I don't know that we put it in the contest.”
LAR 24, NE 3 — Rams beat Patriots 24-3; Patriots lost by 21, well outside the +5 spread.
“So I'm taking the Texans here at minus one.”
CHI 36, HOU 7 — Bears beat Texans 36-7; Texans lost outright, busting the -1 spread.
“that likes to run it and a team likes to take deep shots playing against a team that's their two weaknesses so we'll take these big points with Minnesota and as long as it doesn't go below 4.5 I'm happy to take Minnesota in the competition. So for the record, the line right now is six and a half, like I said.”
TB 26, MIN 14 — Buccaneers beat Vikings 26-14; Vikings lost by 12, busting the +6.5 spread.
“Cowboys on the road, three point favorites against the Bengals, Bengals. Bets and money coming in on the Bengals right now. I mean, obviously, we can't make a decision on this game until the Cowboys play tonight. But let's say the Cowboys come out of this and, you know, you said you're betting the Cowboys. Let's say they show well against the Ravens. Three-point favorites on the road, just so people can get some kind of inkling of what you're thinking here I hate to do it because I I hate the Cowboys but this this line should be four four and a half the the Bengals they got they got their cover we talked about against the Giants that was everything went right they backdoored it they got that number how do you not take the Cowboys an Andy Dalton revenge game too he's coming Back to Cincinnati, I just don't see how Cincy can score. I know Dallas has a bad defense, but, man, that's interesting. You said the public was coming in on Cincy. I thought they were for sure coming on Dallas on the short number, but usually I'll take a home dog here, but I'll take the minus three that's sitting at right now.”
DAL 30, CIN 7 — Cowboys beat Bengals 30-7 on the road, covering the -3 spread by 20 points.
“Cardinals, two-and-a-half-point favorites on the road against the Giants. And, like, Matt Mitchell hates Cliff Kingsbury. The Giants' D looks amazing. Daniel Jones is going to be back. Is that accurate? Do we know? I think we're starting to realize who even cares at this point because if we're betting on the Giants, we're simply betting the defense. And I should have known better. I should have listened to people when they were saying that Kyler wasn't right. He's still hurt. And once again, in that game, he was awful. Was not running the ball. Couldn't make completions. I hate to take the Giants here because I know it's going to be such a public side. But we have to take them.”
ARI 26, NYG 7 — Cardinals beat Giants 26-7; Giants lost by 19, busting the +2.5 spread.
“Broncos on the road at the Panthers. Three and a half point underdogs against Teddy Covers. I gotta take the Broncos but I hate it dude we are so gonna put in a fucking buy this week we don't like any single game every game I know cause it's one of those I already can see what's gonna happen but Panthers I don't know it's I like them better as a dog and I would like it better if they were at two and a half or three the fact that it's three and a half I know the books are trying to suck me in here and get me to take the Broncos. And it's going to work. It's just – I can see this being a field goal game. Both these teams have glaring weaknesses and big strengths. But the Panthers, I just – I don't know. This team, they're very inconsistent. Like we saw in the Vikings game, they had two defensive touchdowns, and they still let the Vikings come back and win that game. So I know they're coming off a bye week, and the Broncos just had the game of the year against the Chiefs. But I have to take the Broncos.”
DEN 32, CAR 27 — Broncos beat Panthers 32-27; Denver won outright, comfortably covering the +3.5 spread.
“the Chiefs, the Dolphins we have not walked into the Hornets' nest we have not made our big balls better the week this is 100% the Hornets' nest game this week walking into Hornets' nest taking the Dolphins here but we have to take them we're walking into the Hornets' nest I'm walking into a fucking Hornets' nest now be my companion last week I was enraged when I saw Tua was going to start because I had a decent amount of money on Miami. I had them in our competition for us too, and I switched them out because I'm an idiot for the Eagles. Tua is not good. He makes so many mistakes that he's a rookie. I can't fault him. People want him to come out and be like Herbert. We saw Herbert happen last week. He had a rookie week where you just have a complete meltdown. That's always going to be the scary part of playing Miami. But this is such a great play here where the Chiefs just played a really tough divisional game, now traveling across country down to Florida to play the Dolphins. And the Dolphins are catching seven and a half. And it's a little telling where the sportsbook are saying the Dolphins aren't as good as people think they are. And this is a big number for a team that's going to be making the playoffs in the Dolphins. But I'll take it. I might be the public side taking the Dolphins this week, but I'll take it at seven and a half.”
KC 33, MIA 27 — Chiefs beat Dolphins 33-27; Miami lost by only 6, covering the +7.5 spread.
“Colts at the Raiders. You know where I'm going to be on this. I got like the Colts are two and a half point favorites. As much as I love a short home dog, I don't love a short home dog when it's the Raiders. And I'm not going to make the Eagles our big balls bet of the week. I promise. So, for this week, Las Vegas Raiders, big balls, bet of the week. Shut up. No one wants to take the Raiders. Everyone knows they should have lost to the Jets. People are going to be coming on the Colts. They're just going to look at the score box and see how well they played and the fact that they won in Houston. We talked about it in text while I didn't want to take the Colts. I didn't like that Fulpe Rivers says turf toe. Chad, I know you've broken every finger on your body, but I don't know if you've ever had turf toe. But it's one of those things, every time you step on your big toe and pivot or anything step into a throw it shooting pain up your leg every time So Rivers he played terrible last week and it didn matter I mean his weapons are that good He just gets it to his guys and they just do all the work for him But this week with the Raiders, I love that we're buying low on the Raiders coming into this game. And the fact that, like you just said, they're catching points at home, I'll take the Raiders every time here. Big balls, better than the week. I can't believe you're doing this to me with the Las Vegas Raiders. I feel like I have faded the Raiders every single week this year, and actually we've done so profitably. How is that possible? They're like a playoff team. Yeah, but they don't cover. I don't know. I just feel like every week I'm against the Raiders, and I always feel good about it. All right, so our Hornets' nest, we've gone back-to-back. Hornets' nest is going to be Dolphins plus 7.5 against the Chiefs, and then Big Ball's bet of the week is going to be Raiders plus 2.5 against the Colts,”
IND 44, LV 27 — Colts beat Raiders 44-27; Las Vegas lost by 17, busting the +2.5 spread.
“Raiders 2.5 against the Colts. Lions plus 7.5 against the Packers. Our Hornets' nest. We are walking into Hornets' Nest because we are companions.”
GB 31, DET 24 — Packers beat Lions 31-24; Detroit lost by only 7, covering the +7.5 spread.
“Jaguars visiting the Vikings. Minnesota Vikings. What are they, eight and a half, nine and a half, depending on the book. My instinct on this game, bets and money, both coming in on the Vikings. The Vikings did not look good. They were missing Thielen. I was very high on this team going into the Cowboys game. Less high on this team now. I felt like losing that game, that was a big deal for them. Just stay away from me. Stay away? Yeah, I'll stay away with you. Jaguars have been covering really well here lately They just been backdoor kings They backdoor everyone And this is where it runs out I take Minnesota this week I hate that it's such a high number, and I hate backing Kirk Cousins. But the Jags, they've played really well down the stretch here. But it has to catch up in here. And the Vikings, they're due for a big win. So I don't love it. We're definitely not putting the competition, but I'll take the Vikings here.”
MIN 27, JAX 24 — Jaguars lost to the Vikings 24-27 in overtime; Minnesota's 3-point win falls short of covering -8.5 (ESPN box score).
“So high number, seven and a half. I know what they're trying to do. They're trying to scare me off the Raiders, but I'll take the Raiders this week.”
NYJ 28, LV 31 — Raiders beat Jets 31-28; the 3-point margin falls short of covering -7.5 (ESPN box score).
“I like the Saints a lot that it's minus three, even though, like you said, it's scaring me a little bit. The Sharps coming on the Falcons, but I've backed the Falcons one week and I back them again the following week and they just let me down the following week. So I'm going to ride that train and take the Saints here.”
ATL 16, NO 21 — Saints beat Falcons 21-16, a 5-point margin that covers the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“And minus three with the Colts, I'll take it.”
HOU 20, IND 26 — Colts beat Texans 26-20, a 6-point margin that covers the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“happy to take the Cardinals here in the big balls. Better the week makes all the sense [40:29] in the world.”
ARI 28, LAR 38 — Rams beat Cardinals 38-28, a 10-point loss for Arizona that blows past the +3 cushion (ESPN box score).
“we got the Eagles who are just dreadful trash. There's no way the Hornets nest is going to be betting the Eagles at plus nine against the Packers in green Bay in a late afternoon game. There is no way this team is just terrible. Like they are awful. They're awful, but But no, it's not a Hornets nest game. That's coming up. Love it. Love the Eagles. Oh, my God. You're sick. You are disgusting. But it just too big of a number Green Bay is not a good defense I know they have guys back in the secondary Eagles are terrible I shocked this many people are even betting on the Eagles But, yeah, it's a big number. Not going to make anyone pick the Eagles, though. That's why I'm not going to make any more unique bets because this is one of those I'm just going to take by myself and just cry in the corner. I have to take this number. It's too big. It should be seven. It's nine. Happy to take the nine.”
GB 30, PHI 16 — Packers beat Eagles 30-16, a 14-point loss for Philadelphia that busts the +9 cushion (ESPN box score).
“I get why people might be taking them here because they got a good quarterback who can throw the ball around. But you got to think Belichick scheming up against a rookie with just a great secondary that New England still has. It's the only good thing on their team is that secondary. Got to take New England here. I know the line's moved down. It's down to minus one in some books. Still like the value on New England. So I'm happy to take this one and put it in our competition.”
LAC 0, NE 45 — Patriots routed Chargers 45-0, a 45-point margin that easily covers -1 (ESPN box score).
“But Chiefs, Chiefs, Chiefs. [49:00] Minus 14.”
KC 22, DEN 16 — Chiefs beat Broncos 22-16; the 6-point margin falls short of covering -14 (ESPN box score).
“And pure value bet, I'll take Washington's money line here.”
PIT 17, WSH 23 — Washington beat the Steelers 23-17 on Monday night, so the moneyline bet wins (ESPN box score).
“will just love this Bills number, especially the fact that it's under a three. They're going to come in on it. So I have to take the 49ers here. Producer and Buffalo Bills fan and Western New York native Matt Mitchell has weighed in that the Buffalo Bills have not won on Monday Night Football since 1999. Oh, my God. That's insane. Yeah. Yeah. So I guess I just locked it in for us. Then I guess we've got to put the 49ers in. 100%. All right. So right now, if we don't take a bye this week, these are the games that we like. And I think we have found a decent number of games that we can start to feel good about. We'll be choosing from Saints minus three, Miami minus 11, Colts minus three, Cards plus three, Eagles plus nine and a half, Pats minus one, Washington plus 10, Niners plus two and a half.”
SF 24, BUF 34 — Bills beat 49ers 34-24 on Monday night; the 10-point loss for San Francisco blows past the +2.5 cushion (ESPN box score).
“I'm happy to take Washington plus three.”
DAL 16, WSH 41 — Washington beat the Cowboys 41-16 on Thanksgiving, a 25-point margin that easily covers +3 (ESPN box score).
“I got this at five-and-a-half, so in my mind, I think I'm getting good value. I like the opening number. It's four-and-a-half. I took that. Now it's down to three and a half. I'll take Seahawks again. It's just a situational play where the Seahawks have had two weeks. They've looked terrible. They've had two close games with the Cardinals. The Cardinals lost a game by three points, and then they just won a game in dramatic fashion. And a lot of people think this is going to be like a spark. To me, it's one of these Cardinals players today on Tuesday, you think they're really thinking about the Seahawks, or you still think they're thinking about Sunday. And they already beat the Seahawks. The Seahawks need this game desperately, especially on a two-game slide. I'm happy to take the Seahawks here and back Russell Wilson. I know that the defense has played terrible for the Seahawks, but this just seems like a situational play where you have to take the Seahawks at home here, and I'm going to take them. You bet the Seahawks at 5.5. You bet them again at 4.5? No, I bet them at 4.5. I said I had them at 5.5. Yeah.”
SEA 28, ARI 21 — Seahawks beat Cardinals 28-21, a 7-point margin that covers the -4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“The Titans on the road at the Ravens, six and a half point dogs, 65% of the bets, 57% of the money coming in on the Tennessee Titans. Smash the Ravens. Smash the Ravens under a touchdown in this game. Go. Talk me off it. I hate it because he has looked bad, Lamar, and their offense looks so stagnant right now. But we have to play the situation. It will buy low. Team and the Ravens, they've played two road games. They won one. They look terrible in the other one just because of a monsoon. And we've seen it. I feel like Tannehill, not that he's turned back into a pumpkin, but I don't have faith in him putting money behind him anymore. Where Lamar, I still have the idea in the back of my mind. This guy, if he has a lead, he's going to win. But the statistic I saw, he's 0-6 now when he's down 10 in any game. So that's one of those where I'm happy to take the Ravens. And if you're a lot better, as soon as the Ravens get down 10, You have to ride the trend. You have to take the Titans live because this is getting to a point now with Lamar that he's had real stinker games. He loses to good teams. That one we had to throw out the Patriots because of the weather. This is not a good team in my mind, the Titans. I'm happy riding with you and taking the minus six and a half. All right. I have no concern. That, to me, is a lock it in pick right now. All right. I'll put it in.”
TEN 30, BAL 24 — Titans beat Ravens 30-24 in overtime, so Baltimore lost outright and the -6.5 spread bet loses (ESPN box score).
“Hey now the Steelers are on the road at the Jaguars Nine and a half point favorites This is an ugly number for me I like to hear what you have this power rated at Bets and money all coming in on the Steelers But, like, this team hasn't looked good. I had this at 10. It's 10 and a half, so I'm getting value on the Jags. The thing that worries me is I've had two straight weeks now. I took the Jags against Houston. They covered that on a little backdoor. Took them against Green Bay because we talked about on the show, the 14 that's a lot of points and it ended up coming down to the wire I think that would they lose by four and yeah again like I don't want to do it but we got to take the jacks here 10 and a half against a Pittsburgh team that if we just go through the history of them and the jacks why does it feel like every time something happens with the jacks either beat them or keep the games close I mean we all remember that Bortles year that Bortles is not a good quarterback he went to Pittsburgh against Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, and he outscored them. I think they beat Pittsburgh that year, like 44 to like 33 or something crazy like that. So in my mind, it just seems like it's one of those teams that Pittsburgh always has problems with the Patriots and the Jaguars. And in my mind, I'll take the 10 and a half for the Jags, but I don't feel great about it.”
PIT 27, JAX 3 — Steelers beat Jaguars 27-3, a 24-point loss that blows past the +10.5 cushion (ESPN box score).
“We also like the Eagles plus three against the Browns.”
CLE 22, PHI 17 — Browns beat Eagles 22-17; Philadelphia's 5-point loss fails to cover the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Next up, Atlanta at New Orleans. I mean, who knows what's happening with Drew Brees. So let's assume that he's not going to be playing for the next two weeks. That's actually information that we know. The question is, Sean Payton has said he won't say who's starting, Jameis or Taysom Hill. How do you rate this game? Let's assume it's going to be Jameis who gets the majority of the snaps. What do you have this number at? How can I power rate this? It's impossible to know without the quarterback, the most important position on the field. When I had this line with Drew Brees, I had it at minus seven. This is always a battle. I would have been really happy to take the Falcons because I probably would have been up there. But with Winston, if he's really going to be the starter, we know what Jameis is. Jameis is terrible. He might have these moments of brilliance where he throws a deep ball that's really good, and hey, maybe he'll show up in this game, his first game as a starter, and play well. But in my mind, I have to take the Falcons here. It's a divisional game. If Winston's the quarterback, this should be minus three. I'm happy to take the plus five right now.”
NO 24, ATL 9 — Saints beat Falcons 24-9, a 15-point loss that busts the +5 spread for Atlanta (ESPN box score).
“Chiefs at Raiders. Chiefs are six and a half point favorites on the road in Las Vegas. Speaking of Eric, be enemy future coach of the Chicago Bears. Don't care that it's the public play of the week. I want to thank Vegas ahead of time for moving this down from seven. Give me the Chiefs. Give it to me. Give it to me. Give it to me. Love it. After a bye week, we talk all the time. Andy Reid after a bye week. He just covers, baby. Don't think about it. Six and a half. Chiefs already lost to the Raiders. The Raiders supposedly did a victory lap around their stadium and buses. Give it to me, the Chiefs, man. I'm taking the adjusted line, too. I'll take them minus 10 and a half. I love this with the Chiefs.”
KC 35, LV 31 — Chiefs beat Raiders 35-31; the 4-point win falls short of covering -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“What do you think of the Jets visiting the Chargers and the fact that the Jets were 10 point dogs when the line opened and the money has come in on the Jets and it's been moved to eight and a half? Those idiots. No, I'm kidding. I don't know. They're probably just thinking themselves. It Joe Flacco versus a rookie QB who looked like he hit that wall But in my mind if Bosa back him and Ingram on those two DNs Flacco going to be a statue back there I'm happy to take the Chargers, but I would not put this in the competition. It's just a lot of points to be laying with them. But this year, we've talked about it with Joe Flacco. We just don't think he's a good quarterback. I think he had his game of the year last week, and he still couldn't win that game. So I'm happy to take the Chargers this week. Oh, no. No, we're not putting this game in the contest. No, I'm just saying betting-wise.”
LAC 34, NYJ 28 — Chargers beat Jets 34-28; the 6-point margin falls short of covering -8.5 (ESPN box score).
“But I like the Browns this week. [23:52] I'm cool taking the minus three.”
CLE 10, HOU 7 — Browns beat Texans 10-7; Browns won by 3, exactly matching the -3 spread, so it pushes (ESPN box score).
“And in my mind, if this is going to be a shootout, I have to take the Broncos here at the plus five.”
LV 37, DEN 12 — Raiders beat Broncos 37-12; Broncos lost outright, well short of covering +5 (ESPN box score).
“We can put the Dolphins in if it stays at minus two and a half. [30:06] I got to trust the numbers and say this is the right time to take them here again.”
MIA 29, LAC 21 — Dolphins beat Chargers 29-21, an 8-point margin that covers the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“The 49ers are visiting the Saints. It opened at 6.5. It's now at plus 9.5. You are begging me to take the Niners here. Big balls. Bet of the week, my friend. Big balls. Bet of the week. Saints coming off the most dominating game of the season, according to DVOA. San Francisco, blown out at home on a Thursday night, coming across country to play the Saints. Public is going to tease. They're going to have money line, everything on the Saints here. This is a great matchup for the 49ers. The fact that it's, like you just said, 9.5-10, love it. Anything above 7.5, I'm more than happy to take on the 49ers.”
NO 27, SF 13 — Saints beat 49ers 27-13; the 14-point loss exceeds the +9.5 cushion, so the 49ers cover fails (ESPN box score).
“So now that I'm calling my shot, I got the 49ers winning this outright. So I like the 49ers. They're big. Whoa, whoa. Yeah. You have the 49ers winning this outright. The money line price on this game right now. And by the way, when I yelled big balls better the week, I yelled it so loud, my dog ran upstairs. I just want you to know that. the money line price on this game right now uh 340 up from 235 so it's it's getting up there but i like it no one believes in it man no no one believes in the 49ers like they're they're leaving they're leaving them for dead and they're gonna get guys back this week though i think they're gonna get right and this is this is just a good situational play for the 49ers I'm a hundred percent in I love it I love it let's freaking do it big balls better the week my friend”
NO 27, SF 13 — 49ers lost outright to the Saints 13-27, so the moneyline bet loses (ESPN box score).
“So to me, it's a get-right game for the Ravens. [37:59] I know it's back-to-back road games, but as long as it's seven and under, [38:03] I'm happy to take the Ravens here.”
NE 23, BAL 17 — Patriots beat Ravens 23-17; Baltimore's 6-point loss falls just short of covering -7 (ESPN box score).
“We haven't used the Packers yet. This is the week you have to use the Packers. They have hard divisional games coming up. Let's just get rid of them. Let's just take Green Bay. if we somehow lose to a sixth-round rookie QB, that's the way it's meant to be. That's the way it goes. That's the way it goes. I'm with you 100%.”
GB 24, JAX 20 — Packers beat Jaguars 24-20, so the Green Bay moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“Let's set it up right here, right now. Thursday night, we've got the Packers visiting the Niners. The Packers are five and a half point favorites. And like, look, this game, all of a sudden, no Jimmy G, no Kittle. the Niners really starting to struggle with injuries more than they were even before. This is a pass, obviously. Yeah, and honestly, going in, I like the Packers just because – Them losing at home to Minnesota in a divisional game, felt like this was going to be a great spot coming to the West Coast and playing the 49ers here. But what do we know? We know the 49ers, their run scheme has just been amazing against Green Bay. They played them twice last year and dominated them both times without even needing Jimmy G. It was just all running for the 49ers last year against Green Bay. So can't feel great about it because I'm back in a backup QB here in the 49ers against arguably one of the best quarterbacks ever to play in Rodgers. But I'm going to take the points and just trust that there's good value here on the 49ers at home in a short week and that they can control the game running it.”
SF 17, GB 34 — San Francisco 49ers lost 17-34 to Green Bay Packers, failing to cover +5.5 (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“So for me, this is an automatic play. [26:00] I'm going to ride with, I don't know if it's the public or the sharps, [26:03] but I like this Detroit number, especially at plus four. [26:05] I'm happy to take that.”
MIN 34, DET 20 — Detroit Lions lost 20-34 to Minnesota Vikings, failing to cover +4 (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“So Giants are plus three visiting Washington right now And I know a lot of people are gonna think like this is a coin flip game so they going to take the Giants but I personally have this at Washington minus four and it has more to do with the fact that Washington just has such a great D-line, and coming off a bye week, and the fact they lost to the Giants in a game they probably should have won or at least went to overtime in, I love it. I love how this lines up for the Washington football team. I understand why people think this is good to take the three and a half to three with the Giants, but I just think they're overlooking this Washington team. They don't really make mistakes. Kyle Allen, he just doesn't turn it over, especially at the rate, like you were just saying, as the Giants do. I'm cool with fading Daniel Jones here and just backing this Washington football team.”
WSH 20, NYG 23 — Washington lost outright 20-23 to New York Giants, failing to cover -3 (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“I know. It sucks. This is a professional line. This is like a situation where you just have to take the bills. I know Josh Allen hasn't played well. I know the defense has just been atrocious and they can be run on. But, oh, man, I have to take the bills. It's painful. We probably won't. Put it in because this is too risky where Russ, in these situations, I've just been burned by him a lot where he'll just cover this two-and-a-half number. But I just have to play the Bills here.”
BUF 44, SEA 34 — Buffalo Bills beat Seattle Seahawks 44-34, covering +2.5 (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“Next game up, Ravens, two and a half point faves on the road at Indianapolis. This one is a sticky wicket. Unless your rating is telling you, I got this. I feel confused. Yeah, got it at the pick. So love the Colts. Think you're getting a good number here. Fuck you! I know. I cannot believe you're going to make us bet the Colts in this one. That's a huge difference between two and a half and pick. Getting a home dog like this. I know. I just, I don't know. Maybe I'm overvaluing the injury to the O-line of the Ravens, but I just don't see how the Ravens can really move the ball against this Colts defense. And we've seen the evidence now. Lamar, he's played good teams in big spots, and he keeps not playing up to the standard we're accustomed to. Those interceptions he threw last week were absolutely horrible He throwing it right to defenders And I don know I with you This isn my big ball It better that week But I have to take the Colts here. I just think this is great value. And this is a bad spot for the Ravens here.”
IND 10, BAL 24 — Indianapolis Colts lost 10-24 to Baltimore Ravens, failing to cover +2.5 (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“But if I have a good read in the game and I'm saying, well, this number should be 23, happy to take the Chiefs. Where this week, I had this game at 8.5 for the Chiefs. So 11.5, 10.5 with Carolina Panthers. I think I'm getting three points of value. I love this play for a good backdoor. So I'm on the Panthers this week. Are we putting this in our contest? Let's put it in for right now. I love it. So right now, the games that we love, we have games that we love right now. We love the Lions plus four. We love Washington minus three, but we're hoping to wait because we think it might come down a little bit. We love the Panthers plus 10 and a half.”
KC 33, CAR 31 — Carolina Panthers lost 31-33 to Kansas City Chiefs but covered +10.5 (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“Texans visiting the Jaguars, seven point favorites. This game is the proverbial corner TV game in our virtual landscape. We will not have any interest in this game unless you tell me it was. Okay. No, it's too ugly. Like the pro in me I going to take the Jaguars I know they have the new QB in there but you can run on the Texans and the Jaguars they like to run it with Robinson And everything I seen from the Texans is that they not I don't know, they're not this team that I can trust to be a seven-point favorite over anyone. That's a lot of points for such a bad team to be lying. And Texans have already beat the Jaguars this year. So you think they're going to beat them two times this year both times by more than seven points. I just can't see it. So I'm going to take the Jaguars this week, even though I know they've just been horrendous of late, but I'm going to trust the number and take the Jags here.”
JAX 25, HOU 27 — Jacksonville Jaguars lost 25-27 to Houston Texans but covered +7 (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“So for me, this feels like an autoplay [39:45] where you can't not take the Chargers. [39:47] As long as it's under a field goal, [39:49] I'm happy to take the Chargers here.”
LAC 26, LV 31 — Los Angeles Chargers lost outright 26-31 to Las Vegas Raiders, failing to cover -1.5 (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“but I feel comfortable taking the Dolphins here in a game that I got as a [44:04] field goal. [44:05] So I'm happy backing the Dolphins this week.”
ARI 31, MIA 34 — Miami Dolphins beat Arizona Cardinals 34-31 outright, covering +4.5 (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“So I feel comfortable taking the minus five and a half here with the Buccaneers.”
TB 3, NO 38 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers were blown out 3-38 by New Orleans Saints, failing to cover -5.5 (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“All right. The last game is the Patriots and the Jets. The Patriots are seven point favorites. This team's trash. The Jets are trash. Neither of us want to be able to want to spend our Monday night. Like to me, that Monday night, I'm circling that. That's when I'm finishing the Queens gambit on Netflix. I am not watching this game. Trash, trash game. Betting the Patriots just because I'm just going to keep fading the Jets. It's just been good to me and can't give you a good read on it. Had this number at seven. So technically you're getting good value on the Jets, but I don't care. Taking Cam on the road against just horrible Jets team.”
NYJ 27, NE 30 — New England Patriots won 30-27 outright but only by 3, failing to cover -7 (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“I don't think we've taken Pittsburgh yet. That feels like the smart play this week. You get Pittsburgh out of the way in that tough division. We'll put them on there. And then the other play, which is risky, would be New England. There's no other situation the rest of the year that you're going to take this terrible New England team. Can't do it. No way. That's terrible. That's a terrible idea. Terrible idea. So you heard it from the man himself. We're just going to lock in Pittsburgh for our Survivor. I'll put out a poll anyway because it's fun seeing how people vote. But, yeah, we'll lock in the Steelers for Survivor.”
DAL 19, PIT 24 — Pittsburgh Steelers beat Dallas Cowboys 24-19 outright, winning the survivor pick (ESPN Week 9 scoreboard).
“It's the easiest thing ever, the Chiefs. [19:11] If you don't take the Chiefs this week, you're terrible at Survivor.”
KC 35, NYJ 9 — Kansas City Chiefs beat New York Jets 35-9 outright, winning the survivor pick (ESPN Week 8 scoreboard).
“Yeah, I love it. Let's put it in. Boom! We got the Indianapolis Colts as three-point favorites on the road at the Lions. You know what? I don't care what happens over the course of the week. I don't care how much more money comes in. I don't care how many syndicates come in. Really? It's locked in. Dude, we are locking in the Colts.”
DET 21, IND 41 — Indianapolis Colts routed Detroit Lions 41-21, covering -3 (ESPN Week 8 scoreboard).
“This is so – I love this game. I love that. Like, I had decided to pick the fact that the public has come in now and bet this Chargers team up that I get a plus three with the Broncos. I just – everything you said is so true. Locke has not been good. Even in that Patriots game, he was not good. And I might be really misreading this one with the Broncos team. I don't know. But I love that it's the Chargers coming off Herbert's first win at home, now traveling for a divisional game against a team that just got blown out in a divisional game. It just feels like this is a smart number and a smart play, and the right side is going to be the Broncos. So I'm on the Broncos here.”
DEN 31, LAC 30 — Denver Broncos beat Los Angeles Chargers 31-30 outright, covering +3 (ESPN Week 8 scoreboard).
“So I'm going to play the Bears number here today, four, [43:19] but I'm going to wait to bet more this weekend.”
CHI 23, NO 26 — Chicago Bears lost 23-26 (OT) to New Orleans Saints but covered +4 (ESPN Week 8 scoreboard).
“I'm going to end up playing the Giants plus 10.5 just because it's a primetime game. [49:15] But yeah, I can't put it in.”
NYG 23, TB 25 — New York Giants lost 23-25 to Tampa Bay Buccaneers but covered +10.5 (ESPN Week 8 scoreboard).
“It's 7.5, right, or is it 7? It's 7.5, and it's pretty split. It's 52-48 Saints. The money coming in on the Panthers right now. And I think that's sharp money because I'm with them on this. Oh, it's definitely sharp money. Yeah I like that at 7 where we seen from the Saints team that they not that hard to defend I mean if you take away Kamara and you stack the lineup I know Michael Thompson was to come back. But with no fans for the Saints, it's really affected them at home. We've seen how they haven't played great at home so far. And as long as that number stays at seven and a half and we get Teddy Bridgewater, who's just unbelievable covering as a dog, I like taking them here. I got this number at six. So we're getting a point and a half of value. I like Carolina here.”
NO 27, CAR 24 — Carolina Panthers lost 24-27 to New Orleans Saints but covered +7.5 (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“Seahawks, three and a half point favorites on the road. Three points, three, three and a half on the road at Arizona. I don't trust them. I just don't trust them. You trust Arizona? No, I don't trust either of them. So I don't want to bet this game. Well, we got to pick a side. We can't be those guys. But yeah, man, I'm on Seahawks. 100 percent you could the Cardinals could show up here and they could actually play a decent game but Russell Wilson off a bye week facing a team that's just won two straight on the road more than happy to take the Seahawks here I'd take this number up to five or six so I'm with the public on this one I'm going to be taking the Seahawks interesting very interesting how much of this is”
ARI 37, SEA 34 — Seattle Seahawks lost outright 34-37 (OT) to Arizona Cardinals, failing to cover -3.5 (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“49ers Patriots, 49ers two and a half point dogs on the road. at New England, I feel like I'm being baited here. Because the Patriots are clearly not the same team with Cam Newton playing quarterback. And he hasn't been a guy who, even when they've been winning, was the reason they were winning. Right. And the Niners, to me, I was all over them this past week against your advice, went so far as to go so far from your advice that I actually just bet them to win and cashed. but I still like the Niners' dogs on the road, like in this spot. Why? Like why? Because they won on Sunday night and the Patriots look so bad? Chad, you're better than this. Come on, man. No, you're right. You know what to do here. No. You're telling me I got to back the Patriots here? Yeah, like, I mean, I get it. It's all a new year. Belichick, we know the stats before Brady got to him. He wasn't that great of a coach, apparently. He lost a lot of games before he had Tom Brady on their center. But how am I going to bet on the Patriots going 0-3? And you're backing Jimmy Garoppolo, who he might have had like four passes that were over five yards. Everything he was doing were quick dump-offs to the sidelines, quick passes, because that ankle isn't right. They kept showing it a bunch of times. It's all taped up. So I'm going to back the Patriots. They have no more COVID stoppage of practices. They can get a weekend together. They just looked like a team that was rusty, especially Cam. He looked like he hadn't played in a month. So I like the Patriots team. I especially like that the early money came in on St. Fran and moved this line down below three. Like I get what you're saying. They're trapping us in here. But I think Vegas is like everyone else, so they're just unsure. They don't really trust this Patriots team because they're a different team right now. But I'm going to trust New England, and I'm going to trust that this cost country trip for St. Fran after a big win on primetime games is going to affect them So I like this number a lot I going to take the Patriots Line opened Patriots minus five and a half It is now at two and a half So clearly it been bet down the money 58 of the money So that's usually professional indication of professional support is on San Francisco right now. So, all right, then I'm going to, I'm going to put them on our list right now.”
NE 6, SF 33 — New England Patriots lost 6-33 to San Francisco 49ers, failing to cover -2.5 (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“the bears are visiting the los angeles rams they're five and a half point dogs monday night football my favorite team in prime time that's always uh a little bit disconcerting tell me what you're thinking here simon and you know the meme with paul rudden it's him like eating the wings and you say who would have saw us sitting here who would have thought who'd have thought you know thank you look at us hey look at us look at us huh yeah right the bears man five and one the top of the division i don't know how many people are calling that in may but you're listening to people that talked about the value of the bears and that we we saw this kind of season coming from them so that's what i'm talking about you you are my matthew mcconaughey to my woody All right. All right. All right. For those who don't know, follow Simon Hunter on Twitter. There was a beautiful picture of McConaughey and Harrelson together swimming. And Simon's like, this is me in chat. Just pure bliss, man. Time is a flat circle. Two guys who have, who have just figured out how to live in every single way. And now that I warmed up all you bear fans, I'm sorry to say this, but this is easy pick of the Rams easy play of the week bet your balls on the Rams Yeah you probably right All the public coming in on the Bears after a big road win People are starting to believe The Rams played horribly against San Fran. And it's just an easy game where the Bears, they're going to win a lot of games and they're a great team. But they're going to have weeks like this where it's just going to catch up to them. And, I mean, how many wins straight are they on right now? They have four straight wins. Yeah. No, no. They've won five, but they lost to the Colts three weeks ago, so they have two straight wins. Okay, right. They lost to the Colts, then they beat the Bucs, then they beat the Panthers. Just looking at it, it's really tough to win two road games in a row, let alone two ones that you're flying down North Carolina, now you're flying back, and now you're flying all the way out to the West Coast. So I think just situationally, the Bears defense, they're going to have a letdown game, especially indoor on this turf field. I think the speed's going to be too much for them to handle with the Rams. And I like the Rams here in a bounce back spot. And a lot of people are going to be tying a lot of money into the Bears in this game, especially in teasers, because you can get this number above 10, put it in a teaser. I like the Rams here. I like them big.”
LAR 24, CHI 10 — Los Angeles Rams beat Chicago Bears 24-10, covering -5.5 (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“A young team like the Panthers that went four in a row. So I'm going to back the veteran QB on the Bears and the veteran defense of the Bears to go down to North Carolina and get a win here. And I like that we're getting two and a half still. I love this Bears team right now in this game.”
CAR 16, CHI 23 — Chicago Bears won 23-16 at Carolina Panthers, covering +2.5 (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“point favorites, Andy Dalton and the Cowboys. I don't know that the adjustment, because like the Cowboys probably would have been three point favorites at home. So we're talking about five and a half points. Is Dak Prescott worth five and a half points? Is that what you think this adjustment is? Where would you have this right now? I honestly think it's a good number. I had Dallas at plus two. So it's like two and a half, three right now. That's a pretty good number. my whole thinking here is that Dalton we know he's not that bad of a quarterback he's not very good but when he had weapons around him he made the bangles a playoff team year in and year out when he had good weapons around him so what we've seen from the Cardinals they can't run the ball and it doesn't seem like their defense can get consistent stops on third down and I know how bad the Cowboys defense is so I know they're going to give up a bunch of plays and And this will be a big sweat as a Cowboy backer. But I have to take the Cowboys here, especially the first start for Dalton.”
DAL 10, ARI 38 — Dallas Cowboys lost 10-38 to Arizona Cardinals, failing to cover +2.5 (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“little rusty. I'm going to take the Bears here, and I'm going to take the five and a half. And I think by game time, this number is going to go down because I think the Sharps are going to join me on that.”
CHI 20, TB 19 — Bears beat Buccaneers 20-19; Bears won outright, easily covering +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“so I can't not take the Eagles here at seven and a half and it's just such a letdown game for the Steelers where oh they've had a week off they're going to come out slow and it's going to come down to the very end and I could see the Steelers coming covering seven but I love the I love the extra hook with the seven and a half for the Eagles no no no here's why this game probably should have been if the Steelers had played this past week they're beating the Titans that's just me saying it, they'd be a much bigger favorite over the Eagles at this point. And I feel like you're only you're getting a little bit of value like on the Steelers Because the Eagles finally won a game and it was in prime time and they beat up on the Niners. What's your number here? You should make this number nine. That's what it should be. No, I honestly, I had it at four and a half. And then after the injuries to the Eagles on the Sunday night game, I moved it to six. I'm with you. Like, this is an easy play. The Steelers should kill these guys. But are we sure the Steelers are good? Like, who have they played? Go through who they played. So that's one of those where I'm going to back the Eagles here and think I need to see the Steelers prove it to me. They're not playing the Giants. They're not playing Houston. They're not playing these teams that we have already seen. They're not that good. So I'm going to back the Eagles here and I'm going to let the public come in on the Steelers. All right, fine. We'll take the Eagles.”
PIT 38, PHI 29 — Steelers beat Eagles 38-29; Eagles lost by 9, failing to cover +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“so I'm going to bet on a bounce back spot here and keep fading the football team I'll take the Rams hopefully it gets the seven so I get good value but it's at seven and a half right now so we might want to put the Rams on our list yeah especially if the line keeps coming down just for everything I've seen from Washington they're they're banged up on their interior and you can run on them and that's like the same reason I liked the Rams last week they're a running team so if you can get if they get it turned on the ground that's when golf really takes off so I'm going to back them here and take this number, even though it's high.”
WSH 10, LAR 30 — Rams beat Washington 30-10, winning by 20 to cover -7.5 (ESPN box score).
“i'm gonna take the cardinals give it to me six and a half i'm happy”
NYJ 10, ARI 30 — Cardinals beat Jets 30-10, winning by 20 to cover -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“All right. Dolphins visiting the Niners. Dolphins look like eight point underdogs. Boy. Boy, oh boy. Boy, oh boy, man. We've put a lot behind Ryan Fitzpatrick so far this year. We really have. Fitzmagic. Fitzmagic. We have invested emotionally. We have invested spiritually. And we have invested financially. And they don't have the same sort of edge that they had last year. Like the value is certainly not there that it was there last year. but eight points against this 49ers team. There we go. Say that's value. It is. I hate being the guy that's like, Oh, we got unlucky on our bets last week, but it's like, how are you going to kick four field goals against Russell Wilson? What are we doing here? If, if my team is in the red zone, I'm playing Russell Wilson. I'm either going for it on fourth down to keep trying to get touchdowns, or I'm going to just give it back to him. Cause three points does nothing against to this guy. It was brutal. He ripped our soul out last week, Russell Wilson, because they had that back door all lined up, Miami. And he just put a bomb down the field, went down the field, and scored another touchdown. I go, nope, I'm Russell Wilson. I'm going for MVP this year. You're not getting no backdoor on me. So I would back Miami. I like that number. That's a big number. I know that they can be run on, and that's what the 49ers do really good. But just like what we saw with the Eagles, there's just too many replacements. Like, yeah, Kittle might kill us and that's going to hurt. We know what it is with Fitzmagic. He's going to have down weeks and he's going to have up weeks. So I'll take this big number and I'll back the Dolphins,”
SF 17, MIA 43 — Dolphins beat 49ers 43-17; Dolphins won outright, easily covering +8 (ESPN box score).
“But I cannot bet the Cowboys minus nine and a half You going to so you going to bet this game regardless Yeah Like I going to take the Giants money line That how much I don believe in this Cowboys team right now Wow. I think something's wrong with them in a normal year. If they had a pack house, this is a great spot for the Cowboys. This is that they should kill the Giants here, but I'm going to trust that with the sparse fans down in Dallas and the Giants been playing, they played better on the road than they do at home. They've covered twice this year and both times it's been on the road. I'm like, I'm going to ride that trend. I'm going to take the Giants here. You are going to take the Giants who are scoring about three and a half points a game with a quarterback who can't convert a third down unless he's lucky enough to fumble the ball forward. And you've got them going on the road, even in a 17,000 person, you know, fan capacity against a quarterback who has thrown for more yards in the first four games than any quarterback in NFL history who is against a team that is desperate for a win. Desperate. And this Giants team is terrible defensively. And you're telling me you will bet the money line in this game. What is the money line on this game right now? So it's nine and a half. So I'm guessing it's like 320. It's off the top of my head. But this is like I every week I do money line parlays. And we talked about like I really like the Browns and the Eagles last week. So I put their money lines together. So you like those are you get insane odds on these big money lines so i'll put a grand it's to win 10 grand and then i'll just wait live watching the game like of the 49ers and eagles you just hedge live so say the eagles i forget what point it was but they got up um i think it was a touchdown that's when i just take the 49ers at seven and a half or eight plus uh plus eight as a dog and try to hit the middle so with this week we haven't got to the games yet like the vikings money line with like the Chargers money line. Those are kind of things like I'll stack those like you in your wildest streams go. There's no way the Chargers will beat the Saints and there's no way the Vikings who just got their first one are going to beat the unbeatable Russell Wilson. But these are just games where the lines have gotten so high because these teams are so undervalued that if I just hit these kind of money line parlays just three times in a season, I've doubled I've doubled that original bankroll or tripled it. So I don't want to steer people wrong here. I would not recommend to anybody listening here to take the Giants' money line. But this is one of those where I think I'm getting an extra two and a half numbers of value and that goes into the money line. So I'm gonna take that just cause I think there's value on it. All right, by the way, the number on the money line right now is plus 350, Giants plus 350.”
NYG 34, DAL 37 — Cowboys beat Giants 37-34; Giants lost outright, busting the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“And so give me the bears plus two and a half at home.”
CHI 11, IND 19 — Colts beat Bears 19-11; Bears lost by 8, failing to cover +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“because people might be down on the Cardinals because they just looked really bad at home. But I like the Cardinals here. I'd like them to bounce back against a really bad defense. And I know Teddy can sling it. He can keep teams in games. But he struggled last week in the red zone, and he struggled the week before in the red zone and the week before. So it's three straight weeks now that I've seen him struggling in the red zone. Where Kyler, when he gets down there, he usually puts it away. So I'm going to be back on the Cardinals this week, even though I know that's going to be a public play. You know what? I'm 100% with you. And I think we're getting value here. I think this is a public perception play in that I actually think the line hasn't moved at all. And maybe you're not, maybe you're telling me something and without saying it, I don't know where you have this power rated, but the Panthers are as high as they're going to get right now. And the Cardinals as low as they've been all season. So I gotta be getting value. I don't even know how you power rated this. Tell me what you did. So I had this at Cardinals five and a half and it opened, I believe at four. And it's so the sharps came in and they hit this Panthers line because it's down to three and a half, despite 71% of the bets being on the Cardinals. So I get their angle that they think the Panthers could keep this close against a team on the Cardinals that looked sloppy last week. But I think they're just undervaluing and still Kyler Murray and what he can do. So we're going to be on the Cardinals. That's what I'm thinking. Yeah, let's put them in.”
CAR 31, ARI 21 — Panthers beat Cardinals 31-21; Cardinals lost by 10, failing to cover -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Bills, Bills visiting the Raiders, the Ascendant, the Miracle, the Bills from Buffalo. Matt Mitchell, our podcast producers, favorite team of any team in any sport. The Bills are three-point favorites at the Raiders in Las Vegas. We'll wait and see what the injury report is with the Raiders, because they had a lot of guys get banged up in that New England game. And Waller barely even played for them, which was a big deal at tight end. And this is another one of those games where we're going to buy low in Vegas because the Bills just had an incredible comeback. No, you can tell me. I love the Raiders here. I think that with everything going with the Bills, they're flying really high. This is a nice little letdown spot for them. So this is one of those they're going to come in feeling really good. And I could just see the Raiders keeping it close and eventually pulling out a win at the very end. So I'm backing the Raiders here.”
LV 23, BUF 30 — Bills beat Raiders 30-23; Raiders lost by 7, failing to cover +3 (ESPN box score).
“We are going to be on the Rams this week. We continue to thrive and survive.”
LAR 17, NYG 9 — Rams beat Giants 17-9 outright; survivor pick on the Rams advances (ESPN box score).
“And different books have this up to seven and a half now with Washington. So when I look at this football team there, I was there's the strength of the whole team is that D line. And that's why I like Kyler so much last week. He can expose a D line like that. Cause he's so quick. He can get around that stuff Well we got Baker who a first read quarterback that stands back there like a statue for the most part He doesn scramble much I do like this number a lot with Washington The only thing that's giving me hesitation is their back-to-back road game. So seven and a half, that's really enticing because the Browns, they're not a team that can hold onto these leads. Burrow looked incredible against them passing because they're really banged up right now, the Browns in the secondary. So I'm big here on Washington, but I get it. They're so ugly. We don't have to put them in. Well, dude, you're the professional. This is part of the game. We're not supposed to bring a public mindset to these things because it's people like me that would say, I'm not betting the Giants. I'm not betting Washington. Being a professional better means you got to bet the teams that you got to hold your nose on because that's where the value is going to be. it's true if you're telling me washington is like according to your models what where do you have this game i get at six so i got pretty much we're gonna if it goes up seven and a half we're gonna point a half of value that's why i do really like washington here because it's people are buying in on the browns again they're buying high and no one wants to back washington after they just got dominated by what we were just talking about maybe the mvp of the league in kyler murray so i do like this washington number here we can put it in all right let's put it in Let's put it in. We're putting it in.”
CLE 34, WSH 20 — Browns beat Washington 34-20; Washington lost by 14, failing to cover +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“They are seven-point dogs playing without Christian McCaffrey on the road at Los Angeles. Tell me why in the world would money be coming in on the Panthers here, Simon Hunter? That's shocking, that higher percentage, because the public must not want to touch this game at all. So that's just pure sharp money, it sounds like to me. From their angle, I think Teddy Bridgewater at seven, that was a good number because in no world are the Chargers blowing anyone out. They're going to be an easy backdoor team. It feels like the whole thing. year. We might have just saw them play the game of the year for them last week. Like that was their Super Bowl. And you got the Panthers coming off a divisional blown out loss. So I'm with them. I back the Panthers here with the points. I would definitely wait to see what QB starting. I feel honestly better when Taylor's starting than I do Herbert. So I'd wait on that number if you're going to bet it. But you like the Panthers in that spot. I do. I think that it's after like a a game they just had where it was close and they made a couple little mistakes where it made it turn into a blowout. They should have covered that number. I think you're getting good value here on the next – the week after the Chargers should have won against the Chiefs on this number. This number should be three and a half, four. Are you saying we should put this in? Is that what you're saying? I'd put the Panthers in for now, yeah.”
LAC 16, CAR 21 — Panthers lost to Chargers 21-16 (Panthers won the game); Panthers covered +7 with room to spare (ESPN box score).
“Well, now we've got our favorite team in football. Like, you know, the Arizona Cardinals are five-and-a-half-point favorites at home. The numbers moved up from three-and-a-half. Not a surprise because you've got the majority of the tickets coming in on the Cardinals right now against the Detroit Lions, who are really looking like a train wreck. But there is no but. I actually don't know why we wouldn't back the Cardinals here. Yeah, we're playing with fire if we do it again. I'm not totally against it because I can easily see Kyler covering that number against a really banged-up Lions defense. And the Sharps are coming in on this number. So I think it opened 6.5, 7. Now it's down to 5.5, even though a lot of the bets are on Cardinals. And I think they're banking on what I talked about earlier with the 0-2, 0-2. Like 0-2 against the spread, 0-2 straight up. The Lions are due here to cover a number. But I still think Vegas is overvaluing the Lions as if they're still healthy. And we have a Cardinals team who is healthy. So I do think we're getting the best of the number here. I'd be cool with taking the Cardinals. I think I want to, like, I agree with you. We're playing with fire. We keep backing the Cardinals. We love this team.”
ARI 23, DET 26 — Lions beat Cardinals 26-23; Cardinals lost by 3, failing to cover -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“And I love the value that – when I saw this game come out, I really thought it was going to be 3 or 2.5. And when they opened at 4.5, I really jumped on it. It really hasn't moved. Some books have it down to 4, the Patriots. But if it stays at 4 or 4.5, that's an automatic play for me in this competition.”
SEA 35, NE 30 — Seahawks beat Patriots 35-30; Patriots lost by 5, failing to cover +4.5 (ESPN box score).
“So Miami 5.5 is on the board for us.”
MIA 28, BUF 31 — Bills beat Dolphins 31-28; Dolphins lost by only 3, covering +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“Yeah If DraftKings keeps it at six and a half that what it at right now on their site that an autoplay I love I think we gave it out at 50 or 55 to one The Cardinals way way way early in May We did it at 50 to one. I bought it. Yeah, and like we said, it's just one of those we're betting on a player making a second-year leap, and I love Murray. So here I have this game at nine and a half. So even if it goes to seven, we can put it on the side. It's one of those I'd be willing to put in because I love the value.”
ARI 30, WSH 15 — Cardinals beat Washington 30-15, winning by 15 to cover -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“but it feels like an automatic bet for me. [26:21] All right, we're putting the Jags in.”
JAX 27, IND 20 — Jaguars beat the Colts 27-20 outright, well covering the +8 spread (ESPN box score).
“here from Big Ben. All right. These are our final five picks as of right now. Keep track At Simon Hunter 10, keep track in what I write about in actionnetwork.com. We'll be updating it. But as of right now, Picks lock on Sunday. We're starting here. This is our perfect portfolio as of right now to win $1 million. Jacks plus eight against the Colts. Ravens. Ravens minus eight against the Baker Mayfield Browns.”
BAL 38, CLE 6 — Ravens beat the Browns 38-6, covering the -8 spread by 24 points (ESPN box score).
“So are we putting the Cardinals in our batch of five? [43:05] I'd put them in.”
ARI 24, SF 20 — Cardinals beat the 49ers 24-20 outright, covering the +7 spread (ESPN box score).
“We got the Cards plus seven on the road against the 49ers. We got the Rams plus three at home against the Cowboys. And we got the Steelers minus five and a half. We like them up to minus seven on the road against the Giants.”
PIT 26, NYG 16 — Steelers beat the Giants 26-16, covering the -5.5 spread by 4.5 points (ESPN box score).
“the win total is eight and a half and i think some books are gonna have a plus money so basically last year was a season from hell they went eight and eight so if nick foals or even trubisky i don't love trubisky but i think he can run the offense he'll be better than obviously was last year, hopefully. It just lines up perfectly with everyone knows Green Bay is going to not have a great season as they did last year. There's going to be wins in that division for the Bears to get, and they're going to have an easier schedule. The eight and a half feels a gimme where I had them graded at 10 wins for the season, the Bears. So I really liked the eight and a half of plus money.”
Chicago finished the 2020 regular season 8-8, not clearing the 8.5-win total, so the over loses (ESPN standings). (Bears 8-8 (8 wins))
“of plus money. What do you think of the Bears at plus 390 to win the division? I bet it already I mean I I just I like the value there that people forget they didn't win that division because of their offense”
Green Bay won the NFC North at 13-3; Chicago finished second at 8-8, so the Bears division future loses (ESPN standings).
“But some of the hot button teams Miami over 6 plus 107 And I going to be on that under just because I don think I think they are going to have Tua I think Tua is going to be playing early days. And what we saw last year, it was obviously great coaching, but it was a lot of fits. I mean, that game against the Patriots in the season, that was one of the more incredible comebacks. And that's just what that guy does. He's a never die kind of guy. Tua is going to be a rookie. He's coming from Alabama. he's coming off a major injury that that's all those signs point to first year woes a good a good season for them will be four to five wins so that that's a big under um from the six”
Miami finished the 2020 regular season 10-6, clearing the 6-win total, so the under loses (ESPN standings). (Dolphins 10-6 (10 wins))
“The last one I'll give out, just for Darren, I do like the Jets over 7.”
The Jets finished the 2020 regular season 2-14, well under the 7-win total, so the over loses (ESPN standings). (Jets 2-14 (2 wins))
“Like, even Patrick Mahomes. Like, Scooch was saying in the podcast earlier that Patrick Mahomes, the wise guys liked his over 29 and a half rushing yards total. I actually hate that. I think it'll be much under. But I do think this game plays to under, and you're always going to get value in the under on individual props too because that's how sort of bookmakers think about those things. Right, and the reason the Sharps are on that, I took that number too, is just because he's really been showing here that he's just desperate to win.”
Patrick Mahomes rushed 9 times for 29 yards in Super Bowl LIV, under the 29.5 rushing yards line (ESPN box score). (Patrick Mahomes: 29 rushing yards)
“winning percentage on the parlay no surprise yeah simon hunter has taught us so much this year about betting it's insane it's insane all right so the to to recap simon hunter is on the over 52 and a half 53 in chiefs titans he's on the chiefs chiefs at minus seven and a half all the way up all the way up to infinity because this game's not getting out there but i like it up to 13 that's at 13 he's on the packers under packers niners under 45 and on the packers at plus seven and a half”
SF 37, GB 20 — 49ers beat Packers 37-20 in the NFC Championship; Packers lost by 17, so Packers +7.5 does not cover (ESPN box score).
“he's on the packers under packers niners under 45 and on the packers at plus seven and a half”
SF 37, GB 20 — 49ers beat Packers 37-20 in the NFC Championship, a combined 57 points, over the 45 total (ESPN box score).
“I mean, the Titans, that's just an amazing, amazing spot for them. This line's going to keep going up, I'm telling you. Like, I got it when it opened at 2.5. I'm seeing some books already at 5.5. So it's going to keep going up. So I hope it stays under 7.”
HOU 14, TEN 35 — Titans beat Texans 35-14 (ESPN), margin +21 vs line +2.5; Tennessee covers.
“It crazy how every year they just don put it together They just have so much talent All right so these are our picks right now Assuming you know you and I will continue to discuss over the course of the week, as will Darren. Miami plus 16. Miami plus 16. Colts minus 3.5. Titans as long as it stays under 7. Denver minus 3.5.”
DEN 16, OAK 15 — Broncos beat Raiders 16-15 (ESPN); Denver margin +1 vs line -3.5, does not cover.
“And the Saints look like world beaters, but now they're going outdoors against an AFC team where they don't really need this win that much. I mean, I know they wanted to stay up in the top seed, but the Titans really need this game. So I love that we're getting plus three.”
NO 38, TEN 28 — Saints beat Titans 38-28 (ESPN); Tennessee margin -10 vs line +3, does not cover.
“Here's one. Minnesota, three-point dog on the road against Seattle. They are playing a team that is just not as good as they are. I like it. I like Minnesota here. Darren? I'll take that game over San Francisco, Baltimore. All right. So right now we're Cleveland, we're Miami, and we're Minnesota. Right?”
SEA 37, MIN 30 — Seahawks beat Vikings 37-30; Minnesota margin -7 vs line +3 busts (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“I like a good sharp line this week. Just because people saw it on Thursday, how awful Pittsburgh looked. I like Pittsburgh at Cincy. It's Pittsburgh, they're 5-5 playing an 0-10 team. And this is their, they got to win big here. They got to make a playoff push. This team still believes in themselves. And Cincy, that was, I don't know how they didn't beat Oakland. Oakland played absolutely horrible, and they still lost by seven. So I just think the Bengals are a team that's just quit, and they covered last week, so I think it's a good week to go against Cincy. You want us to put a road favorite of a touchdown or more getting 80% of the money into the Super Contest? I mean, I get what you're saying. I don't play percentages like that. I mean, I know you mean, so we can stay away, I guess, from Pittsburgh. But 80% of the money, that's a lot of sharp money. That's just not Joe Public money. Do you know what, though? You know what? You know what? I'm willing to go with it. Like, sometimes you've got to go against your instincts. I've lost this thing every year. I'm winning this year. So I feel like I'd put it in. Yeah, we cracked 30. I'm pretty excited where we're heading right now. We already cracked 30 before week 12. So we've got 30 wins right now going in. So we're doing good. 30 wins. I don't know of any idea what place we're in. and I've assiduously avoided it. You're not looking. I'm not looking. At the end of the year, we're either in the money or we're not. It's not going to impact my choices. Let's take Pittsburgh. All right. Let's take Pittsburgh. So we got the Eagles minus one and a half, the Panthers plus nine and a half for 10, Pittsburgh minus seven.”
CIN 10, PIT 16 — Steelers beat Bengals 16-10; Pittsburgh margin +6 vs line -7 busts (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“but do you guys like the Patriots? I do. I do like the Patriots. I'm actually hoping the number goes lower. I'm hoping when the lines are posted, it's at six, not six and a half. Right. I would love it at six. I do in my system. I got this at seven, so we're not getting crazy value. But this is just such a, I mean, no one likes the Patriots. They look horrible. The Eagles did everything they could to lose and not cover that game. So I do like the Patriots bouncing back here. Darren, what do you think of that? I like the Patriots. All right. Eagles minus one and a half. Pittsburgh minus seven. Pats minus six and a half.”
NE 13, DAL 9 — Patriots beat Cowboys 13-9; New England margin +4 vs line -6.5 busts (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“And you guys said you like San Fran, 49ers? I do. I don't. You don't. Yeah. It makes me a little weird because it is prime time. And everything we've seen from Jimmy G, he hasn't looked good in primetime. Like, that Seahawks game, he was terrible on the Monday night. Okay, I do like that. I do like the 49ers there. How about Jacksonville plus three in Tennessee? That a waste of a game You only have to laugh I know I know I mean do you want to do the Thursday night Do you guys want to take the Colts tonight on Thursday Let's take the Niners. Okay. Oh! I'll take the Niners. Give me one pick. So, we got a lot of chalk here. We got the Eagles minus... That's what makes me a little worried here. Yeah, the Eagles minus 4.5, Pats minus 6.5, Pittsburgh minus 7, the Niners minus 9.5, and the Panthers, or minus 3.5 and the Panthers”
SF 37, GB 8 — 49ers beat Packers 37-8; San Francisco margin +29 vs line -3.5 covers (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“I think we're getting five, five and a half with Miami.”
MIA 20, BUF 37 — Bills beat Dolphins 37-20; Miami lost by 17, missing +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“Like, do we want to back the Chiefs on Monday night in Mexico? I was just looking at that game and I absolutely do. I think they're going to kill them. We do, right? Yeah. Okay, because that's a nice spot where we can take the Chiefs here. They're going to, if they hopefully cover for us, they get a bye weekend. And coming back, you know, Andy reached that off a bye. So we should get a nice little run here at the Chiefs. I'm good with putting the Chiefs in minus four.”
LAC 17, KC 24 — Chiefs beat Chargers 24-17 in Mexico City; Kansas City won by 7, covering -4 (ESPN box score).
“Well, this week I actually do like some, I do like more chalk favorites. I really like, it's like a weird thing because everyone just saw Green Bay get dominated, but I like Green Bay coming home here playing Carolina after Carolina had a big win. Because I know people, everyone's talking at McCaffrey's MVP and he's the real deal. But I don't see this kid Allen dueling with Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay and Lambeau. I like Green Bay. I agree with that. What do you have that power rate, Simon? We're not getting crazy value, unfortunately. I mean, I liked it that it was 4.5. Now I'm seeing most books with that 5. I get a minus 7 Green Bay. So it's kind of like last week with the Eagles, I had the Eagles minus 7. It's the same exact kind of spot where it's a home team getting – they're just shorting this a little bit. because people are thinking Carolina's a pretty good team. I just think they're a different team on the road. Jesus. You got it at minus seven? Did you bet it in August? No, no. I'm saying that's what I got it in my system. Oh. I took the minus four and a half already, and now I'm cleaning up the minus five.”
GB 24, CAR 16 — Packers beat Panthers 24-16; Green Bay won by 8, covering -5 (ESPN box score).
“All right, last one from Darren. Colts, minus six. I love it. I mean, it's a good spot. Like the Colts are a really good team, and they're playing a really bad team, and you're getting less than a touchdown. So, I mean, I'll be on the Colts, but that might be a trap spot.”
IND 15, DEN 13 — Colts beat Broncos 15-13; Indianapolis won by only 2, short of the -6 spread (ESPN box score).
“We got the Colts minus 6. We got Miami plus 14.5. We got, um, I'm sorry, we got Green Bay minus 4.5. And we got the Panthers plus 5.5. And maybe Seattle to replace the Jags, depending on what they get posted as. I like it”
KC 24, GB 31 — Packers beat Chiefs 31-24; Green Bay won by 7, covering -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“All right. Then we need we need one more team. Simon, we're going to go. Simon says, Simon says, take. Simon says, take. So my my favorite alternative for the ones we have right now. Yeah. I would hate to do it to Darren, but I do like the Jags at home. against the Jets. I don't like that game. You know what? We have to do it. Simon Says. We're playing Simon Says. Well, we can just put that as an alternative. We're taking that if Seattle doesn't work. Right. Yeah, because that Seattle numbers end up being a good one Like Darren right We shouldn really be playing the percentages yet So I definitely cool with taking a Seattle one Alright so we got the Jags minus 5”
JAX 29, NYJ 15 — Jaguars beat Jets 29-15; Jacksonville won by 14, covering -5 (ESPN box score).
“I love Oakland. I think it's down to plus four and a half. I love Chicago Bears. I think they're minus three and a half at home. And for the big chalk one, I do really like, I mean, I guess it's not chalk at all at this point because the line keeps moving, but Denver. Everyone's going to be taking Denver tonight. Even though I know the public's all over the Chiefs, but this is just, this is reeks of a trap game with the Broncos and the Chiefs. I agree. So you want to take Denver right now? Yeah. Do you guys like them? I do. Do you like that bear in Oakland or Chicago? No, I like Oakland, too. I don't love the Bears. When Chad doesn't like the Bears, automatically take the Bears. All right, Darren, here's what we should do. Let's go Eagles, Raiders, Bears, Denver. and Ravens. One more time. Eagles? Yep. Plus three. Raiders plus four and a half. Bears minus three and a half. Denver plus three, and the Ravens. Okay, I feel good about that.”
GB 42, OAK 24 — Packers beat Raiders 42-24 (Raiders margin -18), busting the +4.5 spread (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“I love Chicago Bears. I think they're minus three and a half at home.”
CHI 25, NO 36 — Saints beat Bears 36-25 (Bears margin -11), busting the -3.5 spread (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“a real chalky one I do like this week is just the Chiefs yes that's my first pick alright that's a real chalky one that's like they not that I mean Baltimore got lucky with that late cover you definitely saw them take the foot off the gas when they were up 12 and I don't see Detroit being able to keep up with the Chiefs. But I don't like that it's at seven. If it stays at six and a half for the contest, I'd like it.”
DET 30, KC 34 — Chiefs beat Lions 34-30 (margin +4), short of the -6.5 spread (ESPN Week 4 scoreboard).
“But I do like the Chargers at 3 for just playing it safe.”
Texans 27, Chargers 20 — The Texans beat the Chargers 27-20; Los Angeles lost outright, busting the -3 line (ESPN box score).
“I think I got Washington at six and a half”
Cowboys 31, Washington 21 — The Cowboys beat Washington 31-21, well outside the Washington +6.5 line (ESPN box score).
“The Colts Chargers is the most intriguing pick of week one, I feel. Yeah, definitely Joes versus pros on that one. Yes, exactly. So let's talk about that for a second, because that I think is a good one for us to include in our list. It's definitely one of those games where it depends on what kind of system you're using, but my system literally only gave Andrew Luck a point and spread difference last year. That's how he was good, but he wasn't so incredibly above average like everyone thought he was. There was no worry about the pieces around him. So the fact that this game, I think it It's 4.5. It reopened at 7.5. All the sharps bought it down to 7. And they hit it again this week, and now it's down to 6.5. I still think it's too high. This should be like Colts minus, I mean, plus 3.5. I think that you're getting, I don't know, three free points. I definitely like the Colts in this one. I do too. All right. So for me, I feel like we've got two bets in right now. We've got Tampa at pick, and we've got the Colts plus 6.5.”
Chargers 30, Colts 24 — The Chargers beat the Colts 30-24 in overtime, a 6-point margin that covers Indianapolis +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“What about the Jags plus three and a half? This is another Joe's vs. Pro's game, obviously. Why wouldn't you want to bet on Kansas City? Go against what people view as one of the worst teams in football in the Jaguars. So this is definitely one of those games where all of us are going to be all over that Jags number. What number do you like the Jags until? I don't like it. Honestly, I see the Jags running out right. If it went down to two and a half, I'd still take it because you're getting some value there. But three and a half, they're just keeping that hook up. So I still like that number.”
Chiefs 40, Jaguars 26 — The Chiefs beat the Jaguars 40-26, well outside the Jacksonville +3.5 line (ESPN box score).