iHeartPodcasts and The Volume · tracking: Full Episode
“[24:57] could be a sexy name to throw a bet on so um yeah win total I'll take their over um it's it's moved [25:04] around a little bit it's now a plus number to the over nine and a half which is interesting to me [25:08] it's minus 135 to the under. [25:12] I'll take that plus number on them, right?”
“[31:07] If I've made any bets, I've seen nothing in division. [31:10] I bet they're under. [31:11] I don't really bet that many unders. [31:13] This is when I went right to the window. [31:15] because it was at a plus number. Now it's moving more towards a minus 110, minus 120 toward the [31:20] under. So I would be patient because professional bettors can keep coming in. Maybe I'll get back [31:25] to that plus number. But as we sit here right now, I just, I don't, I don't know. I can't see [31:32] their, uh, their odds moving up too much, right? I can never see them getting to eight wins. I can [31:36] never see them getting to six and a half. So it feels like the books are going to hold them right [31:40] here at seven and a half win total seven and a half is the win total uh it's so interesting”
“[42:58] This has been the – oh, wait. [42:59] Let's draft. [43:00] Let's draft for a second. [43:01] If we're drafting, I guess it's the Cowboys at plus 210 to win the division? [43:12] Yeah, I would do that division odds.”
“[43:57] So I have to make a bet for this division, which I do. [43:59] I am betting Minnesota. [44:01] I'm betting them divisional odds. [44:02] But like I said, there's going to be a point I'm hoping in December where I can take a position on either the Bears or the Lions just because I am worried just to see what Kyler does towards the end. [44:13] Right. [44:13] I've never seen him win a division coming from such a tough division he came from. [44:17] So it's all there. [44:19] You know, the best they say, [44:21] Kyle is the best athlete ever to play football. [44:23] Chad, we'll, [44:24] we'll find out pretty quick if you can keep that alive. [44:26] Cause it's all on him. [44:28] Like there's going to be no excuses here. [44:30] They, they literally given him a month here, right? [44:32] They announced it early him as their starter to learn this offense. [44:36] So we're not going to be blaming KOC. [44:38] I tell you that much, [44:39] we're going to end up billing the Kyler if they don't succeed this year. [44:42] Yeah. [44:42] But we're also entirely investing in our belief in KOC because we've seen him do it with multiple quarterbacks now. [44:54] We've seen him do it with Kirk Cousins. [44:55] We've seen him do it with Sam Darnold. [44:56] We saw other guys go from that scenario to being successful like Daniel Jones. [45:02] So we're really investing that Kevin O'Connell is a bit of a quarterback whisperer here and can turn Kyler Murray into what these other guys became when they moved down from the Vikings or were with the Vikings. [45:17] Five to one, if we were drafting, I've enjoyed when we're drafting, we've got the Vikings at five to one to win the division, 22 to one to win the conference. [45:31] if there's a lot of you're a sick dog you're betting that job i don't hate it i love the idea”
“[12:08] win a ring he i love that he went on this did this with me first yeah um 11 and a half win total [12:14] chad and minus 150 to the under so it's a pricey but positive number and it's a bet on lamar so [12:22] you're literally getting a plus number right now because they'll hit 12 wins if lamar stays healthy [12:25] derrick henry stays healthy zay flowers is out there got this wide receiver this kid named lane [12:31] i don't know if you've heard about him this this young kid for them like looks like they really [12:35] nailed it in the draft. [12:38] If they can come in there with [12:39] Mitter defensively, changing this defense, [12:41] which I think he will. I think he's a great defensive [12:43] mind. Candidate for coach of the year. [12:46] Yeah, it feels like an easy bet [12:47] right now to take a plus number at the over. [12:49] I bet their win total over.”
“[29:19] Yeah, totally. [29:20] He had that crazy run. [29:21] So the hype can't be any higher for me. [29:26] Like I bet them at 25-1 Super Bowl odds.”
“[14:38] they were in third place it's an easier schedule how do you not throw a bet on this Chiefs team [14:45] it's just a minus 10 and a half minus 150 to the owner okay I'm getting a positive number that I'm [14:52] getting a plus number taking the over I'm gonna bet Mahomes get 11 wins so you know the books yes [14:58] we could be walking right into it. [15:00] I have them projected 11 and a half points. [15:02] I have them a full game over this win total. [15:05] They're going to, [15:06] people are going to figure out pretty quick. [15:06] There's two teams that really like this division. [15:09] The chiefs are one of them. [15:09] It's just, [15:10] you're betting on my homes. [15:11] You're betting on Kenneth Walker, [15:12] this run game, [15:13] really changing things. [15:14] And, [15:14] you know, [15:15] again, [15:16] me and Chad are the biggest fantasy guys. [15:17] Cyrus Allen, [15:19] he's going to be a name. [15:20] The general public is going to learn. [15:21] This is a wide receiver that just looks the part right now for this team. [15:24] So where are these missing time? [15:26] Rice may missing time for injury. [15:27] they might have found a stud in this past draft and that's that's what Mahomes is going to do [15:32] right he's going to find a guy if this guy could stay healthy he's going to become Mahomes's guy [15:36] he just cannot keep going through Travis Kelsey who's what you're 30 36 years old now so I just [15:42] look at this team as people are kind of like this might be an in-between year I feel like last year [15:47] was that I feel like last year was the year from hell the year before they were 15-1 on one score [15:51] games last year they were one in 10 chat and one score games and he got it so yeah like i think [15:58] we're in unison here where it's like it's the mahomes factor he he's not calculable to most [16:02] people's models it's going to skew things where well if he gets 12 or 13 wins no i would not be [16:08] shocked but it's like my model can't predict those one score type of games what we're looking at is [16:13] just a law of averages here so to me this just feels like a team that you know at worst case [16:19] my homes goes eight and five and one score games you just we just don't see him having an insanely [16:24] horrible losing record last year was a year from hell me and chad i feel like we're in the same [16:29] unison as we usually fade those type of seasons the next year you have a good quarterback with a [16:34] good scheme a good head coach and a good organization you always bounce always been on the bounce back [16:39] so yeah i i don't know if i'm gonna go heavy on their division odds like i have in the previous [16:43] years dad but uh definitely taking that over right now at a plus number plus 170 to win the division [16:49] plus 650 to win the conference 13 to one to win the super bowl you know it's been years since the”
“[34:20] I'm still going to, [34:21] I'm still going to bet the chiefs just because that's to me, [34:23] that's good. [34:24] Which one? [34:25] 13 to one? [34:28] Yeah. [34:29] I bet my home Superbowl. [34:30] It's just because you know what, [34:31] you know what, [34:32] Anything I'm going to get 10-1 or better on Mahomes, I'm going to take that bet.”
“[35:20] I really feel like they should be tied with the Chiefs at the top of this division. [35:24] I get what pros are saying here, that they're like, oh, we're built in the regression. [35:27] no doubt we're all doing the same thing but at nine and a half wins at minus 120 chad i mean come [35:34] on i think we gotta bet they're over win total um it's just if bonex is healthy if this team plays [35:42] the way we think they should play it's not a guarantee of 10 wins but pretty damn close to it [35:47] like sean payton is one of the best coaches in this league and you give them this much talent [35:52] on this deep of a team if they can just stay healthy there's no doubt they'll be in the [35:57] playoffs and even maybe potentially win this division so um yeah I felt like again every [36:02] division has an easy bet this one felt like the easy bet to me just take their over win total [36:06] you don't have to bet any other ones you can stay away from homes with injuries if you want”
“[48:52] So, yeah, if you don't like 13-1, I've seen for Mahomes coming off a major knee injury, 100-1 to beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl. [49:01] I love that bet, Simon. [49:02] It's on my list, and I made it.”
“[22:41] Is this not the easiest bet in this division, taking their over win total? [22:44] Nine and a half? [22:45] in what world do they does this do they not get the 10 wins if shanahan is alive [22:49] if purdy survives the whole season this is a 10 win team we've seen it time and time again even [22:54] when they have all the 12 win team when when when they had nobody yeah like last year mac jones i [23:00] said this i said this on the other shows sorry to interrupt you but like mac jones was one of the [23:06] only quarterbacks in the nfl quality with qualified number of passes who was top 10 in drop back per [23:12] EPA and an EPA per drop back and a success rate. [23:18] The other guy, Brock Purdy. [23:20] Like, that's how good Kyle Shanahan is at this when he's got no receivers. [23:25] Christian McCaffrey having a subpar year, even though he was comeback player of the year. [23:31] No defense. [23:33] And these guys continue to pull magic out of their freaking hats. [23:38] It's ridiculous. [23:39] us as a McCaffrey owner from last year Chad he was like a juggernaut I think he was number three [23:44] best fantasy player in all of all fantasy football so subpar of year to you juggernaut year to me I [23:49] don't know a little bit but I I took a ton of heat last year when I said that the Shanahan I [23:57] know in the back of mind is like if I could trade Purdue right now for two first round picks [24:01] and just have Mac Jones be my starter I pay him on a discount that's a better future for the 49ers [24:07] but you know Purdy is their guy I get it but it's just my mentality right away when we saw [24:12] Mac Jones play was I think you just said it there Chad there wasn't that big of a drop-off like he [24:17] stepped right into that offense and the fact that he came back right they could have traded him they [24:21] had offers I think um I forget and that wasn't Shepard someone said they had like an offer for [24:26] a third or a fourth and they wanted a first or a second or something like that for Mac like [24:30] they basically viewed him as such a good piece to their offense and so cheap they didn't want to [24:34] move him unless the price is right so i know it's after this year he's a free agent so obviously [24:39] they weren't able to resign him but to me that's a big deal that's not talked about enough the fact [24:43] that mac did come back right where purdy has had bad injury luck yeah you have a guy that can step [24:49] in in this division and still win you games that's a huge deal i mean mac jones we all remember [24:54] beating though that rams team was a thursday night football that was incredible like he was [24:58] tearing them up that rams defense so we know the talent [25:02] Was there going to be a drop-off from Salah leaving? [25:04] Of course, right? [25:04] We talked about it last year. [25:05] Their defense was incredibly young. [25:07] They had a couple games where they just could not get anything going defensively. [25:11] Offense at the end of the season kind of failed them, right? [25:13] They had injuries, like Chad was talking about, the offensive line. [25:16] It just kind of petered out at the end of the season. [25:19] It's kind of the same thing here where they have the third-place schedule in their division, right? [25:23] They have an easier schedule, obviously, than the Rams in Seattle. [25:26] You expect them to be healthier than they were last season, just talking about injury luck. [25:29] And, you know, I keep looking at this team. [25:32] I know that Ayuk is a big deal losing him offensively, [25:34] but you would think Mike Evans stepping in, [25:37] that's such a huge upgrade. [25:38] Like they went from having a zero at the position [25:40] because Ayuk wouldn't play to now, you know, [25:42] Ricky's not your number one. [25:43] The fact you could have Mike Evans be your number one now, [25:45] it only might be for six, seven games [25:47] because he also keeps having hamstring injuries [25:49] and other things like that. [25:51] He's such a professional. [25:52] You have to think how much he's going to help the guys in practice, [25:54] everything like that. [25:54] That's such a big deal to me. [25:56] Don't forget, don't forget they also added Christian Kirk. [25:59] And that's what's interesting to me is they recognize they've got huge wide receiver holes to fill because Ricky Pearsall, he couldn't get on the field last year either. [26:11] And he was had a hard time being on the field his, you know, I think his rookie year as well. [26:17] So they need help at the receiver position. [26:21] It is entirely about the defense. [26:24] Like, what are they going to do with the collection of players that they have? [26:28] We talk about Steve Spagnuolo and what he's been able to do with the Chiefs and how he's performed wonders with a defense that last year did not have its full arsenal. [26:41] Same with the Niners. [26:43] They've gone all in on drafting to improve their defense, and this is going to be the year where they kind of have to prove it. [26:49] And I actually had them closer to plus 200 for this division. [26:52] So the fact that they're plus 300, I have a couple of small bets I've done with them, with the Saints, who are plus 250. [26:59] Put them parlay together, you get crazy good numbers. [27:02] There is a world where this team, just like last year, it comes in the final two, three weeks, you can hedge out of it. [27:08] And that's what's so fun about this division. [27:10] It's like, Seattle, yes, they're a juggernaut. [27:13] The Rams are a juggernaut. [27:14] We know the deal, Chad. [27:15] Once the season starts, you're going to throw all that preseason hype out. [27:18] Once the games start, things get tight. [27:20] These teams get tight. [27:20] They're all an injury away from their whole season's collapsing. [27:23] So it's not that far off they want to take a position on the 49ers team. [27:27] They're not as far behind the Rams or Seattle as the public perceives them to be right now. [27:31] So obviously Shanahan spent all offseason watching that embarrassment game against Seattle. [27:38] Remember Seattle shut them out two weeks ago. [27:40] Not two weeks in a row, but two games in a row, right? [27:42] They shut them out. [27:44] 49ers went to Philadelphia, beat the Eagles in the playoffs, then went to Seattle and got shut out again. [27:48] And I remember Shannon just talking about how he went into a dark hole and watch that tape over and over again. [27:53] Just see how basically I'm masterminded by McDaniels. [27:57] So McDonald's. [27:58] So I look at this team where, you know, it's all there in front of them. [28:03] They have the talent. [28:03] It's all about the health at that number plus 300 for this division. [28:07] Chad, I have to put a little bit off. [28:09] You want to know my bigger bet, though? [28:10] It is on their win total. [28:11] I just I cannot see them not getting a 10 or 11 wins.”
“[44:58] I am tempted here, plus 800, to win the division. [45:01] I'm not going to lie. [45:02] I did place a little bet.”
“[50:38] That's why I threw a little on the plus 800. [50:40] I bet Houston at plus 120 didn't touch the Jaguars, [50:44] didn't touch the Colts. [50:44] I put a little bet on this Tennessee team.”
“[29:58] Yeah, this is my biggest bet by far in this division is on the plus 270, plus 260, [30:04] whatever you can find on this team to win this division.”
“[36:41] when tyler shuck was playing from behind in a lot of these games uh so i'd love i'd love it for him [36:47] you know i love an underdog story uh all right so we'll invest in the new orleans saints at [36:53] plus 260”
“tails here that you can talk me into give me the final order of finish in the most difficult division in football the nfc north yeah man i mean all i know is i'm on the vikings at five to one instead at the bottom of the group.”
“but them and the Ravens they're not that much different and the fact that the Ravens are the number one favorite to be the number one seed and the Bengals are down here 11-1 my model has them literally neck and neck so just going based off values I have them both at plus 600 that means I'm getting a free plus 500 right now on this Bengals team so like again I'm not the biggest Bengals believer my model jumps out to that it's like I have to take notice and say okay I might be a little too hard on Joe Burrow and Zach Taylor, this is good. This is a good number. This is something I need to bet. So I did bet at 12 to one. I've been at 11 to one. I would keep taking it until it drops down to below 10 to one. I think it's a good value right now on this Bengals team.”
“All right. So our Simon says presented by hard rock bets, Eagles to beat the chiefs in the super bowl at a hundred to one. Our Chad's Choice, presented by Hard Rock Bet, New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs at plus 200.”
“their respected conferences so um right there jumped out if you want to do the flip side the chiefs to beat the eagles same thing at hard rock 100 101 we just talked about the bangles i like people know i like betting repeat super bowls and it happens it just i mean it sounds crazy but every year it happens patriots seahawks repeat super bowl matchup like these things that the nfl is so cyclical, it's so repeatable. Since I had Bengals to beat the Rams, 100-1. Again, I'm looking at 101 bets.”
“So my Chad's choice is going to be the New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs at plus 200.”
“we like the value we're seeing in the half point, the hook on Cleveland at plus seven and a half”
“They are three and a half point favorites at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And the Bucs are one of those teams last year that just, we couldn't get the right read on them. We were constantly feeling like, when are they going to become in the second half of the year We kept waiting for them to be the team they were in the first half of the year And they couldn quite get over the top Too many injuries things caught up with them I don know that I got enough faith to bet the Bengals who have just historically been one of those teams that let you down, as three and a half point home favorites in week one on the road against the Buccaneers. Simon says, give me the Bucs plus three and a half. I want to play a game Simon says I cannot believe this number is still up that's how much I've been betting it”
“Because the Bears are on the road playing the Carolina Panthers. Bears minus two and a half. So what are we going to do here? Classic rock in a hard place, hard rock, bet of the week. Because, of course, I want to at least be on the side of the Bears as short road favorites. But I know the right side is Carolina. We are going to be fading the Bears all season long.”
“Because the Bears are on the road playing the Carolina Panthers. Bears minus two and a half. So what are we going to do here? Classic rock in a hard place, hard rock, bet of the week. Because, of course, I want to at least be on the side of the Bears as short road favorites. But I know the right side is Carolina. We are going to be fading the Bears all season long. I feel like going into week one, Dave Canales is a really good coach. Obviously, I believe in Ben Johnson. But this is the spot where we have backed Bryce Young again and again and again. You talk about betting Baker as a dog, Bryce Young as a dog in this spot since the middle of two seasons ago, 2024. He's been earning. You got to take the Panthers. I guess I got to say, you got to take the Panthers. I want to rock! Got to take the Panthers. Could you believe the total of this game, though? 44 and a half? Yeah. Feels incredibly low. For two offenses, I think they're going to move the ball. Yes. That are very suspect to me. Yes. I know the Bears are trying to improve the defense, but they've also lost a couple of key pieces. So I know they're going to be healthier, obviously, than last year. But, yeah, I'm right there with the Panthers. The number line, I'm hoping that gets the three because that's where I'm going to be most comfortable with the Panthers just because what we've talked a little bit about, like, if Ben Johnson is that dude and Caleb's that dude, this is the start to the party, right? This is the type of game they come out and they whoop on a bad Carolina Panthers defense that, you know, their strength, I guess you could say, is partially in their D-line. but you should be able to combat that with what they've done up front with this bears team that's like a sneakily kind of kind of a strength for this team in some aspects as well so um i love this number by the book because it just it tempting both sides Like I can see why people are coming in the Bears and I think that's why you're making the hard rock better than we because it is. It's a really hard spot to pick. But if I have to pick a side, yeah, I'm going to take Panthers as a dog here.”
“the lions are a six and a half point favorite there is very clearly a consensus in the betting community that the lions are a team that should rebound they drafted well they have been historically unhealthy for two seasons in a row, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Dan Campbell, we love as a coach. The expectations are they will improve. Until last year, the latter half of last year, they were always very good at covering very big numbers. And on the flip side, we got a real taste of what Tyler Shuck can do and what Kellen Moore can do, and they obviously believe in Tyler Shuck for this year. They're not going in thinking, okay, we're going to get Arch Manning. And so do you look at this and think six and a half is a big number for the Saints, for the Lions to cover? Or is it the exact right spot to bet the Saints? If we had our contest lines, the Jags would be in, the Bucs would be in, and this game on Detroit lines would be a lock to be i'm so glad you said that because because you just told me i was wrong about the falcons and the steelers i was nervous to go all in on the lions but it just makes no sense to me of course the lions are going to be in this yeah like no that game is not comparable this one that atlanta game i don't really care about this game i care about this is not a game i'm betting heavy and hard rock i've literally had my guys in florida who are on vacation going to the books for me because it's like there's not too many six and a halfs out there so thank you hard rock for giving us this lovely number”
“this is easy easy bet houston plus one and a half you have to pick this every time”
“I believe we're also going to be in alignment in the New York Jets-Tennessee Titans game where the Tennessee Titans are short home favorites at minus two and a half against the New York Jets. It's been two seasons of us not getting it timed right with the Tennessee Titans. I think this is the season we do it. And there is too much hype and excitement over the New York Jets right now for zero reason. They had a good draft on paper. But we don't know who the quarterback is going to be. meaning you know geno smith circa 2014 is going to come back and be the new york jets quarterback we do like robert sala we do like cam ward we do like the fact they drafted in ways to support him Short number give me the Tennessee Titans”
“Give me the Baltimore Ravens three-and-a-half-point road favorites against the Indianapolis Colts.”
“So we got Sunday night game. We got Monday night game. Sunday night game. I love, I love the Cowboys. You can tell me it's square. You can tell me it's public, but you know, I'm not on the Giants this year. And I actually feel like the Cowboys and Brian Schottenheimer last year, the two and a half point favorites at the Giants. I thought the Cowboys were pretty well coached last year offensively and their biggest failing was they had Matt Eberflus as the defensive coordinator and then had injuries I do think they will be improved this year on defense and healthier I think there will be a better team than they were last year I'm not a buyer on the Giants tell me it's square I don't care”
“So I'm right there with you, Chet. I couldn't believe it's not just one or two people, right? It's multiple people now are trying to give this Giants team some credence and some hype. And I already told you where I'm at. It's one of my favorite unders. So I already hit it at seven and a half.”
“Yeah. Kyle Schwarber is back on the list this year. RBI. 35 to one. I made him 20 to one last year for RBI leader. He's 35 to one this year. It was 50 to one last year. So I'm fine betting it at 35 to one still.”
“So the general takeaway and analyzing the futures market this year was much more value in the milestone and ladder props than there is in the outright leader props. The biggest edges I found on outright leader props was Otani RBI leader at 14 to one.”
“I like him, but Victor Scott at 25 to one, I think is a good bet as well.”
“the most interesting market maybe because the totals are so low for win totals or for, for pitcher wins, I should say. the winner of pitcher wins is only going to get 20 right or 22 at most you know compared to saves or strikeouts or hits or home runs like the gap is so much more compressed and everything is a little bit more random but logan webb at 20 to 1 Framber Valdez at 30 to 1 george kirby at 50 to 1 uh i think those are all great bets because what i found doing research into pitcher wins”
“the most interesting market maybe because the totals are so low for win totals or for, for pitcher wins, I should say. the winner of pitcher wins is only going to get 20 right or 22 at most you know compared to saves or strikeouts or hits or home runs like the gap is so much more compressed and everything is a little bit more random but logan webb at 20 to 1 Framber Valdez at 30 to 1 george kirby at 50 to 1 uh i think those are all great bets because what i found doing research into pitcher wins”
“the most interesting market maybe because the totals are so low for win totals or for, for pitcher wins, I should say. the winner of pitcher wins is only going to get 20 right or 22 at most you know compared to saves or strikeouts or hits or home runs like the gap is so much more compressed and everything is a little bit more random but logan webb at 20 to 1 Framber Valdez at 30 to 1 george kirby at 50 to 1 uh i think those are all great bets because what i found doing research into pitcher wins”
“And the point is that Kevin McGonigal is like the best prospect we've ever seen at those skills. The power and speed are pretty good, but he's more of like a 20-20 guy at best. He's not going to go 30-30 or 40-40, but he's probably going to hit 290 and have a really high on base percentage because his swing decisions are so elite. So he's 6-1 right now for rookie of the year. I think his floor is incredibly high, incredibly high. It's just a matter of whether the counting stats get surpassed by somebody else. But McGonagall right now, A.L. rookie of the year, I would lock that in. It's the most recent award bets I made.”
“So he's 6-1 right now for rookie of the year. I think his floor is incredibly high, incredibly high. It's just a matter of whether the counting stats get surpassed by somebody else. But McGonagall right now, A.L. rookie of the year, I would lock that in. It's the most recent award bets I made. So that's why I'm bringing it up. JJ Wetherholt in the NL. Similar case, probably not as good as McGonagall, but another really good swing decisions guy who may not have like the aesthetically pleasing athleticism that you would want, but a very safe floor.”
“completely opposite. So the Minnesota Twins are a team that the public projection market is really high on this year. They have them at about 77.5 wins. I have them at 70.6. Again, 77.5 versus 70.6. Their win total is 72.5. This is a team who is probably going to sell off a lot of pieces at the trade deadline. They did last year. They had to sell off minority shares of their ownership. So not only did they not invest in their roster, they were actively looking for investors into their team so that they could pay their roster. So this is not a team that's going to be adding pieces. It's only a team that's going to be selling pieces. As a result, I'm under their win total. I bet their win total under.”
“Arizona, four and a half. Under. Agree.”
“Miami, four and a half. Under. Agree.”
“Las Vegas, five and a half. Fernando. But I'm still taking the under.”
“Atlanta, seven and a half. I'm going to go with the, I'm going with the over.”
“Washington, seven and a half. I'd go with the over there. I'd go with the over because I think they're going to get an easier schedule.”
“Washington, seven and a half. I'd go with the over there. I'd go with the over because I think they're going to get an easier schedule. Daniels is back for a full season. And their defense can only get better. And they know what the issues are. So I would like the over there. I'm taking the under. I get why you're taking the over, though. But to me, I think it's priced right. I'm just taking the under just because, once again, as much as I like Daniels,”
“Dallas Cowboys, eight and a half. I'll bite. I'm a sucker. I'll take the over.”
“Indy, eight and a half. [35:42] I'm going under here.”
“Indy, eight and a half. I'm going under here. Yeah. What is this number? It's too big. Number. Yeah. We don't even know when Daniel Jones is going to be playing. So are we saying that? do you remember what he did he tore his achilles right he tore his achilles yeah that's like and he tore his achilles midway through the year it's not like he tore his achilles in september so that like we've seen great quarterbacks miss the full year for that um in a division with houston jackson on a tennessee team we think it's gonna be better so chad chad's i think we're in alignment you're like the under right yes as i said under yeah so to me like this and the giants since you're two unders, I've been betting pretty heavily.”
“Giants seven and a half. that feels like a Harbaugh bounce, right? Like there's no other reason to be betting on the Giants at seven and a half if other than you think they are just going to completely revamp their culture because of what John Harbaugh is going to bring to that team. This is like one of my favorite under bets. And I know some pros that have been hammering this over.”
“Minnesota we talked about Pitt Is it eight and a half Taking the under on Pittsburgh I don know who the quarterback going to be I feel like they revamping their culture They aren't leaning into players they develop.”
“Denver, nine and a half. I'll take the over.”
“Denver, nine and a half. I'll take the over. We don't know what's going to be happening with Kansas City yet. And when Patrick Mahomes is going to come back, the Chargers are... could be 15-2. They could be 9-8. You never know with that team. I like what their defense is. They just added Jalen Waddell. We know Bo Nix will be back. I think that Sean Payton is a good enough coach that a 10-7 team with this talent is not at all inconceivable to me. I'd rather be betting the over on this team than the under. Yeah, and just like the Bills, this is one of my bigger, bigger bets I've made before this offseason, I'm taking their over.”
“Matt Mitchell. Here we'll go. Buffalo bills minus 10 and a half. One, two, three. Oh, uh, uh, this is, this feels like an easy, easy over for me. Uh, Josh Allen. I don't care who the new head coach is. I like Joe Brady. I think he'll be able to make that offensive work, what he's done these last couple of years, leaning more into the run, protecting the ball more with Josh. I love it all. I mean, to me, the question has always been on the defense, and I don't see it as a negative getting rid of, you know, what I view it as a... a mid-level coach in the way he especially coached the defense now. And, you know, Sean McDermott had his time. And I do think here this is a low total where if they still had him, this is probably 11 and a half. Maybe the public feels more confident about it. I'm the other way. It feels like last year was a down year for that Bills team. I think this is way, way over. So I've hit this quite a little bit, Chad.”
“Detroit, 10 and a half, minus 135 to the over, plus 110 to the under. This is a tricky one. Detroit, 10 and a half. Let me think about it. One, two, three, under. Yeah, this is, again, just like the Bills, this is my second biggest bet I've made in this offseason. Wow. And in the under. Yeah, I can't believe it. This feels like a line from the past. We talk all the time, football, your window closes pretty quick. And you can lie to yourself and say, well, they've had bad injury luck. That O-line is done. There is no saving that O-line. They've had guys retiring. They've had guys with a ton of injuries. They've not drafted right for the O-line. And we've seen if golf doesn't have an O-line, I mean, that's going to be a big problem. So to me, maybe your defense gets a little healthier. But in that division, I just think Green Bay is going to be better. I think the Bears, even though you can say they went way better than they should have been last year, they're going to build off that. This is going to be a year or two of Ben Johnson. So even with the questions you might have with the Vikings in the clear position, I think 10.5 is a pass line. So I know some pros who have actually liked this over, and they've been betting it. You can get this now at a plus number for the under. So a couple of different blocks, plus 120, plus 115. I really like this under on the Detroit team”
“the Carolina Panthers over six and a half.”
“It's time to start talking about NFL season futures. um super bowl 61 odds at hard rock bet right now the los angeles ramps the seattle seahawks the buffalo bills at plus 1100 uh the rams and the seahawks are both at plus 900 those are the shortest odds right now the ravens plus looks like 1300 packers plus 1400 eagles simon they're plus 1400 have you looked at any of these yet have you given any serious thought to these yet not really like i did put a single bet on the chiefs because i book did hang them at 15 to 1”
“But I took Siwoo Kim over Justin Rose.”
At the 2026 U.S. Open, Si Woo Kim missed the cut at 146 (+6, rounds of 77-69) while Justin Rose made the cut and finished T11 at 282 (+2); Kim loses the head-to-head matchup (ESPN leaderboard). (Kim MC (146, +6) vs Rose T11 (282, +2))
“And it's kind of changed for me when I built my model this go around. I kind of think Scotty is going to win this golf tournament. And there has been this Scotty was three to one to win every golf tournament for almost the first three months of the year. And he's underachieved and he's underachieved in a really weird way, because from a statistical perspective, I ran things for the last 24 rounds. And the last time I came on, I talked about how I run my model longer than most people do. I like to have that long-term outlook. I don't want that short-term stuff that's going to inflate or deflate numbers on it. But with Scottie, the stigma around him right now is that he cannot find success. He is struggling. You see him yelling at his caddy. You see him having these outbursts. He's having outbursts on media members. He's having outbursts on pretty much everybody who's getting around him. And I think that what that has done is it has inflated a price now for Scottie. And when I ran the numbers, I wanted to look at the short-term outlook here. And for Scottie over the last 24 rounds, even without any of the victories and even without some of this high-end success that we expect from him, he is still far and away the number one golfer in my model. I ran seven statistical categories from various degrees of range of time. Scottie was number one and substantially number one in every single area. And I kind of go back to that last 24 rounds of him being substantially number one there. While everybody wants to talk about what we've seen from Fitzpatrick and what we've seen from Cameron Young and of those names. And sure, I like Fitzpatrick this week. I think that this is this prototypical sort of a course for him where he can find success. And there's a handful of names that probably make logical sense to go back. But I took the more bullish route on Scotty. And if you shop around, you can find this number six and a half, seven to one in some locations. And And like I said, it's not something that I normally do, but I am playing the chalk here with Scottie.”
Wyndham Clark won the 2026 U.S. Open at 276 (-4); Scottie Scheffler finished T4 at 280 (even par), not a win (ESPN leaderboard). (Scheffler T4 (280, E))
“morocco plays brazil right away they are right now plus 450 on hard rock to win that game against brazil i love that”
1-1 — Brazil and Morocco drew 1-1 in their World Cup 2026 Group C opener on June 13, 2026 (Vinicius Junior equalized in the 32nd minute for Brazil, Saibari scored for Morocco in the 21st); Morocco did not win outright, so the moneyline loses (ESPN match report).
“if you want to just play half a goal they're minus they're plus one plus 130 so if you want to take plus point half you know you're already up half a goal to start the game so if they tie you win on morocco”
1-1 — Brazil and Morocco drew 1-1 on June 13, 2026; Morocco +0.5 covers on the draw (ESPN match report).
“Simon, what's our big balls better the week? Anthony already said it. You kind of shoot my hand. I, I love Morocco. I really do. I don't think what happened four years ago was just a blimp. And I think Brazil is totally overrated. Like people are, I think I've seen some models have 75% chance of winning their group. so if you want to bet group c morocco i have no issue with that”
Brazil finished first in World Cup 2026 Group C on goal difference (+6 vs Morocco's +3), both teams level on 7 points; Morocco finished 2nd, not group winner (ESPN standings).
“this point nixon five plus 350 nixon six plus 210 nixon seven plus 550 spurs and six plus 700 Spurs in seven plus 550 Simon if you're making a serious bet exact winner and games what are you betting on right now this is just as a fan I think most professionals I know are still dug in pretty much on the Knicks I just I think Wemby's having a moment here I really do I think every game you team gaining confidence. Are we going to get that Wemby 40-point game tomorrow night? I don't know, but I just love the way it's spaced out where they have this game Wednesday and then it's another three-day break. If they play Saturday, it's another three-day break Tuesday. I don't know why. I think these things benefit this Spurs team. I look at this game and I just think, Wemby, this whole team, this whole Spurs team has taken us personality of that. People are saying they're playing dirty. This, to me, is playoff basketball. It's mental. It's physical. And that's what I want to see. Like, people are bitching about the refs. That was like – that's my dream scenario. That way the refs ref that game, where it's like we're letting them play. Like, we're letting these grown men play this game. Right? No eye gouges. Nothing dirty like that I mean the one Brunson play was dirty right It kind of hit the back of his head on the hardwood floor That stuff does freak me out a little bit But overall it like that the game right That why most guys aren six feet tall in this league right Steph Curry at 6'3", looks small for a reason. It's just these grown men, these big bodies flying around. So I'm flipping here to the Spurs. I think Spurs in seven feels like that's fun value for me to bet right now. So I'm going to take a little on that.”
94-90 — Knicks beat the Spurs 4-1 in the 2026 NBA Finals, clinching in Game 5 (94-90 on June 13); the Spurs did not win in 7 (ESPN box score).
“touches in the fourth quarter mvp odds for cat down to eight to one jason i still like it i think i think the uh i think people are understanding what's happening with brunson i i think it's become officially a storyline now that it's like oh the knicks are the better team but is brunson going to shoot them out of the series that's become like a legitimate storyline now so like i i i still like the value on cat there eight to one plus like let's just put it this way if cat has a monster game four to put them up three one then that's the storyline is cat has dominated the nba finals and they're up 31 so i i still like that eight to one line there for cat”
Jalen Brunson, not Karl-Anthony Towns, won 2026 NBA Finals MVP after averaging 32.6 ppg and scoring 45 points in the series-clinching Game 5 (Wikipedia, 2026 NBA Finals).
“this point nixon five plus 350 nixon six plus 210 nixon seven plus 550 spurs and six plus 700 Spurs in seven plus 550 Simon if you're making a serious bet exact winner and games what are you betting on right now this is just as a fan I think most professionals I know are still dug in pretty much on the Knicks I just I think Wemby's having a moment here I really do I think every game you team gaining confidence. Are we going to get that Wemby 40-point game tomorrow night? I don't know, but I just love the way it's spaced out where they have this game Wednesday and then it's another three-day break. If they play Saturday, it's another three-day break Tuesday. I don't know why. I think these things benefit this Spurs team. I look at this game and I just think, Wemby, this whole team, this whole Spurs team has taken us personality of that. People are saying they're playing dirty. This, to me, is playoff basketball. It's mental. It's physical. And that's what I want to see. Like, people are bitching about the refs. That was like – that's my dream scenario. That way the refs ref that game, where it's like we're letting them play. Like, we're letting these grown men play this game. Right? No eye gouges. Nothing dirty like that I mean the one Brunson play was dirty right It kind of hit the back of his head on the hardwood floor That stuff does freak me out a little bit But overall it like that the game right That why most guys aren six feet tall in this league right Steph Curry at 6'3", looks small for a reason. It's just these grown men, these big bodies flying around. So I'm flipping here to the Spurs. I think Spurs in seven feels like that's fun value for me to bet right now. So I'm going to take a little on that. But I'll be up front. I did lose my sweep bet on the Knicks, which it was a fun ride. I'm not going to lie. I was feeling pretty good. And I still have my cat MVP bet. So I do think they're going to make an adjustment where cat will get more touches. Just look at the efficiency numbers. When the offense runs through cat, the Knicks are so good in this series. They have those numbers. We're not, we're not breaking news here, right? They have nerds in the building. They're going to give them that data. So we'll see if Mike Brown makes the adjustments and they get cat more touches. They may have been zero points that Jason gave us that stat about him in the fourth quarter. is alarming because to me we've talked about he's been to me their best player not just running the offensive but defensively what he's done to wemby so um really interesting they just have not gotten touches in the fourth quarter mvp odds for cat down to eight to one jason i still like it i think i think the uh i think people are understanding what's happening with brunson i i think it's become officially a storyline now that it's like oh the knicks are the better team but is brunson going to shoot them out of the series that's become like a legitimate storyline now so like i i i still like the value on cat there eight to one plus like let's just put it this way if cat has a monster game four to put them up three one then that's the storyline is cat has dominated the nba finals and they're up 31 so i i still like that eight to one line there for cat uh how quickly the storylines change from everybody is better than jalen brunson until it's time to be better than Jalen Brunson to Jalen Brunson is killing the Knicks chances to win an NBA title. It is a fickle, fickle business. Jason, give us the last word here. Knicks in five, Knicks in six, Knicks in seven. I'm going to go Knicks in six.”
94-90 — Knicks beat the Spurs 4-1 in the 2026 NBA Finals, clinching Game 5 94-90 on June 13, not in 6 games as picked (ESPN box score).
“boss of the volume podcast network colin covered you said you like the knicks i assume it's knicks six knicks seven knicks plus 700 in seven knicks plus 300 in six where do you like the the series exact number of games exact series score to land so i'm gonna go i'm gonna go knicks in six i think what'll end up happening is the Spurs will win game two and then the Knicks will win the two games in MSG. The Spurs will save their season at home in game five and then the Knicks will close them out in six. That's what I think is going to happen.”
94-90 — Knicks beat the Spurs 4-1 in the 2026 NBA Finals (clinched Game 5, 94-90, on June 13), not in 6 games as picked (ESPN box score).
“It just felt like he just looked so tired. Like, Cat just put his body into him and wear him down. The whole team did. The Knicks were just on him the whole game. So, I don't know where Jason's at. I feel like there's no value at this point in the series. Like, I really don't want to be betting the Spurs. I know that's where I said the value is. I'm a total agree with Jason. Like, they could easily be down 2-0. And now you've bet into two bad numbers if you've taken some. antonio and um i i to me that's not the position i think that calf position especially a hard rock 12 to 1 that's crazy good value like to me he should be closer to 7 to 1 8 to 1 so i'm gonna take that free free money around the books are giving out his mvp odds”
Jalen Brunson, not Karl-Anthony Towns, won 2026 NBA Finals MVP after averaging 32.6 ppg and scoring 45 points in the series-clinching Game 5 (Wikipedia, 2026 NBA Finals).
“And so I like the 0 after the first period today because I just think both these teams first of all Carolina had a very easy path and they haven seen a team like this So I think they be you know toe in the water kind of stuff try to make sure that they like the temperature before they start taking any risks and Vegas will sit back and enjoy that too. So I could see this one starting pretty slowly. Both goalies have been in good form too coming in.”
CAR 2, VGK 1 (1st period); final VGK 5, CAR 4 — Carolina led Vegas 2-1 after the first period of Game 1 of the 2026 Stanley Cup Final on Nikolaj Ehlers's two goals and a Shea Theodore reply (Vegas won the game 5-4); the '0-0 after first period' bet loses.
“We do have game two. Oklahoma City, six and a half, totals 215. Simon, are you buying into a zigzag for the Thunder to cover the same number that they tipped off at before game one? I put a small bet on the adjusted line. I took OKC like minus 13 and a half points.”
122-113 — Oklahoma City beat San Antonio 122-113 in Game 2 of the 2026 Western Conference Finals on May 20, a 9-point margin that falls short of the -13.5 spread (ESPN team schedule/box score).
“Cleveland. Two questions to close us out here, Jason. Knicks minus six and a half game one. Do you like the Cavs? Do you like the Knicks? The total, hold on, the total is 217 and a half. Do you like that instead? First question. I actually think I like the Cavs side of that for two reasons one they've been playing basketball and the knicks have not um so there's a little bit of a rust factor which i think will benefit them two it's a little bit of like a breath of fresh air going from that big physical detroit team to like a less physical knicks team i think the knicks are also big and physical just not to the same extent that uh uh that detroit is the last thing that i would say is like that adjustment period thing i talked about like how like it took a minute for the Thunder to kind of be like, oh, this is different. I think that's going to similarly be what happens when the Knicks face layered rim protection with Jared Allen and Evan Mobley. Like, I think it'll take them just a little bit to be like, okay, our shots are coming from different spots on the floor than they were in the last couple of rounds. So I just expect it to be a close game. And if it's going to be a close game, then give me the team that's getting six and a half points.”
115-104 — New York beat Cleveland 115-104 in overtime in Game 1 of the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals on May 19 after Cleveland blew a 22-point fourth-quarter lead; an 11-point loss doesn't cover Cavaliers +6.5 (ESPN team schedule/box score).
“Who are you taking? Yeah. So my top choice, you know, as I, you know, I started doing homework, obviously far before the foot post draw on Saturday, but once the post draw came out, then I really started digging in and I probably did about three hours of homework on just Saturday night alone. And I kept coming back to the Puma. I kind of mentioned this before number nine, the Puma. Morning line, 10 to 1. As you look at live odds right now, it does not look like we're going to get anywhere near 10 to 1 on the Puma. But I think a horse, again, with a win over at the Tampa Bay Derby, ran really well in the Florida Derby just to get nipped at the wire by commandment. I think that this is a horse that can continue to move forward as he has pretty much throughout his young life so far You got Gustavo Delgado who won with Mage back a couple of years ago So he going to be my top choice.”
The Puma (#9) was scratched on the morning of the 2026 Kentucky Derby due to leg swelling from a skin infection, so the win bet refunds.
“talked about before, 20-horse field, you're going to have to figure out how to work out a trip. I think he's going to be able to be a little bit closer than some of these other horses like Renegade in here. I think if he works out a trip, Junior Alvarado obviously won the Derby last year. He knows how to work out a trip. I think that this horse kind of has somewhat of a similar running style to sovereignty. And with Alvarado's experience winning this on a similar type of a horse last year, wouldn't put it past him another horse at decent odds of eight to one that I'm including in all of my tickets.”
Chief Wallaby (#12) finished 4th in the 2026 Kentucky Derby, won by Golden Tempo at 23-1; the win bet loses.
“the other position. So what this will look like is I'm going to do an exact key box. I am going to key. Number nine, the puma. So that means that the puma needs to finish in first or second. And then I'm going to use another four horses that need to finish in the other position from the puma. And those horses are going to be number six, commandment. Number eight, so happy. Number 12 chief wallaby number 15 emerging market and number 18 further ado so that would then be an exact a key box keying the nine with the six the eight the 12 the 15 and the 18”
The exacta was keyed with The Puma (#9) on top, but The Puma was scratched from the 2026 Kentucky Derby before post time, so the exacta refunds.
“So, yeah, we're we'll get into I've taken a position on Jeremiah Love because I do think there's a lot of smokescreens being thrown around with his name right now. So, oh, that's interesting. Well, let's not. I have a whole tangent I want to go on about disconnected NFL owners who are billionaires and and translating that success into everything else. Because I just watched the jailblazers doc, the untold story on Netflix, and this guy, Bob Whitsitt, who was the GM. And we'll save that for another day because because the draft is tonight and I want to get right to it. So, Simon, what are the smokescreens that you believe are coming out about Jeremiah Love? I don't know if it's true about the whole Arizona thing, them taking them at three. Apparently, that's just bait. They're trying to bait teams to move up. And from what I hear from Tennessee is they love Sonny Stiles, which is, to me, the perfect linebacker for a solid guy. That just makes sense when you really break it down. So right now at Hard Rock, you can get over four and a half on him at plus 120.”
Jeremiyah Love was drafted No. 3 overall by the Arizona Cardinals in the 2026 NFL Draft (ESPN draft tracker); over 4.5 on his draft position loses.
“And that what I talking about talking about Ed Reed So Caleb Downs market that another guy I been up all night betting And we moved the number It was 10 It's now down to 9.5 is over under. I'm still hitting the under. And at Hard Rock right now, it's minus 110, the under 9.5.”
Caleb Downs was drafted No. 11 overall by the Dallas Cowboys in the 2026 NFL Draft (ESPN draft tracker); under 9.5 on his draft position loses.
“I hope they got their bets in. The three that I have for everybody today is Carnell Tate under seven and a half. You can get this at plus 105, plus money in a lot of different books. I think his conceivable floor is the Washington Commanders. I've heard if Sonny Stiles is not there, that Carnell Tate is, if he's not top on their board, he is right there in the conversation for who they would take.”
Carnell Tate was drafted No. 4 overall by the Tennessee Titans in the 2026 NFL Draft (ESPN draft tracker); under 7.5 on his draft position cashes.
“The next one that I'll discuss here is one that's a little bit further down. We can throw this into long shot bets. Houston to draft a linebacker with their first pick. And I know everybody's talking about they go DT, they go edge, they go offensive line. Hasn't Houston shown us over the last few years, like they might be more comfortable with their offensive line mix than we are. And they are a prime candidate to trade back. The thing about their roster makeup right now, you look at their three starting linebackers, Henry Toto is a free agent in 2027. Aziz Alshair, free agent in 2027. EJ Speed, a free agent in 2028. every single linebacker on this roster right now is either a free agent in 2027 or 2028. So if they were to trade back and trade out of the first round, which they're live to do, I've heard that they're a team that wants to move back as well. They are right in the mix of the top of the second round to be right there for a linebacker. Like that is the sweet spot for it. So I have plus 1500. Yes. Bet this.”
The Houston Texans' first selection in the 2026 NFL Draft was Keylan Rutledge, an offensive guard from Georgia Tech, taken with the No. 26 overall pick (ESPN draft tracker); the bet on a linebacker loses.
“now I know. And that's why I want to get out a key. Mesidor under 25 and a half. You can get it at plus one 10 plus one 20 at some books. There are too many team fits that need pass rush. Whether you want to talk inside that top 25, whether we want to talk about the jets, the Buccaneers, the lions, Minnesota, depending on what they do or do not do with Jonathan Garnard, Carolina Panthers, and the Dallas Cowboys, just to name a few. So hitting this line, this line feels soft. It feels wrong. It feels like it's too much of the bias of the conversation about him being an older prospect and not about where he can actually go in the first round of the NFL draft. So that one I have to give out at the top because much like Casey Concepcion in his draft position, I think Mesidor, if it moves, it's going to move very quickly and it's going to get steamed. So definitely want to give that one out first.”
Akheem Mesidor was drafted No. 22 overall by the Los Angeles Chargers in the 2026 NFL Draft, beating the under 25.5 draft-position line (ESPN 2026 Draft round 1 tracker). (Pick No. 22 (Los Angeles Chargers): Akheem Mesidor, EDGE, Miami)
“Um, the next one that I want to hit here is Spencer Fano at plus 200 to be the first offensive lineman selected. If you look at the top of the draft board, there are a number of teams, whether Arizona, if they stick and pick and everybody has mocked them to Francis Malinoa the entire time. But the stuff coming out about his medicals and what we know and what we don't know, because we don't we're not privy to those medicals. Now, the media is making a really good conversation about, oh, he's fine. Everything's OK. What if Arizona is not sold on that? What if Fano and MyWayNo are at the top of their board and then you wanna talk about scheme structure, gap run schemes versus and stretch and things like that. Fano's a better fit for maybe what Arizona wants to do if they don't go love and they do stick and pick at tackle, much less him going to Cleveland. I think there's a number of spots where we could see Fano plus 200. I'm willing to put a unit down on that as him being the first offensive lineman selected.”
Spencer Fano (OT, Utah) was the first offensive lineman taken in the 2026 NFL Draft, going No. 9 overall to Cleveland — no OL was selected in picks 1-8 (ESPN 2026 Draft round 1 tracker). (Pick No. 9 (Cleveland Browns): Spencer Fano, OT, Utah — first OL off the board)
“The other two bets I'll make here real fast are really positional and trying to fit team needs versus where they are in the draft. I've been on this one the entire time. Seattle, first position drafted, a defensive lineman or an edge at plus 400.”
Seattle's first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft was Jadarian Price, a running back (Notre Dame), at No. 32 overall — not a defensive lineman or edge rusher (ESPN 2026 Draft round 1 tracker). (Pick No. 32 (Seattle Seahawks): Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame)
“and being the number one, number two pick, but still being top five, I still think that's a realistic possibility. Maybe there's a little bit of value now. Maybe that's the betters. I was just looking at the odds as we're kind of discussing this, plus 350 what I'm looking at to be drafted top five, but I think the books are also telling us the odds of him being drafted top 10 are minus 300, so this is what it needs to say. A little drop, maybe a little drop. Yeah. I don't know. I would take the plus 350. Okay. Yeah. You know, why not? Take a fire. I don't mind it.”
Rueben Bain Jr. was not a top-5 pick; he went No. 15 overall to Tampa Bay in the 2026 NFL Draft (ESPN 2026 Draft round 1 tracker). (Pick No. 15 (Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Rueben Bain Jr., EDGE, Miami)
“here it's down to let's see the update line it's the over under now one and a half quarterbacks in the first round when derek said not to take it it was minus 250 to the over one and a half it is now down to minus 130 to the over one and a half chad and a lot of people that reached out and asked about why this movement happened and we can talk about all the lines that have moved honestly i can't believe it but peter schrager moves the market more than anyone else that puts mock drafts right now, Chad, which is crazy to think. But Peter Schrager is that locked in. And I think enough betters now respect his opinion enough that they do move off what he says. He did not have Ty Simpson in the first round. And that moved the market huge. Like it was, I think our last year I said it was minus 170 or minus 180 first round over one and a half quarterbacks. Like I said, now it's down to minus 130. He ended up putting Price, that second running back I told you about, He'd end up putting him at Seattle at the 32nd pick, Chad. So now what I gave out a plus 550 over one and a half running backs, it's now down to plus 400. Again, this is all Peter Schrager. Like Peter Schrager has totally moved the market. Why receivers? I believe he had six in the first round. Now that was plus 190. It's now down to plus 140, plus 135 over five and a half receivers. So like we talked last week about following these mock drafts. Peter Schrager put out his first mock. I don't believe he puts out another one until the day before the draft. You got to be on it. Like clearly this man is plugged in and the market is moving with him So yeah Derek with a Ty Simpsons call saying he doesn believe he a first rounder Like I said I agree with him I think he a second rounder I did not think the market would move the way it moved with him So I am tempted now, Chad. It's moved so much over one and a half. I'm tempted to do it. But if you want to deal with like Matt Mitchell's put in our chat, which is like betting these individual teams. I think that's really fun, too. I just because I put so much money, I'd rather play the safe market. And I'll probably just do the over one and a half, which at this point, minus 130. I got to do it. I've been waiting. I've been on the sideline, but I just think it's too tempting.”
Two quarterbacks were taken in round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft — Fernando Mendoza (No. 1) and Ty Simpson (No. 13) — clearing the over 1.5 (ESPN 2026 Draft round 1 tracker). (Round-1 QBs: Fernando Mendoza (pick 1), Ty Simpson (pick 13))
“This year, I already have a plus 180 bet on over five and a half receivers.”
Only 5 wide receivers were taken in round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft (Tate, Tyson, Lemon, Concepcion, Cooper Jr.), so the over 5.5 loses (ESPN 2026 Draft round 1 tracker). (Round-1 WRs: Carnell Tate (4), Jordyn Tyson (8), Makai Lemon (20), KC Concepcion (24), Omar Cooper Jr. (30))
“I think he's going to get, and UConn will be able to procure some paint touches. If UConn has any confidence with their shooters and they're nailing a few shots early, that's going to require Illinois to expand their defense and Reed's going to cook in the post. So I like over 15 and a half points for Terrace Reed.”
UConn 71, Illinois 62 — Tarris Reed Jr. scored 17 points for UConn in the 71-62 Final Four win over Illinois, clearing the over 15.5 (ESPN box score). (Tarris Reed Jr.: 17 points, 11 rebounds)
“but we got to take UConn's money line. I mean, what show would this be if we don't take UConn's”
UConn 71, Illinois 62 — UConn beat Illinois 71-62 in the Final Four semifinal, so the UConn moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“I mean, right now you can get over five and a half wide receivers at plus 185 plus money at some books.”
Only 5 wide receivers were drafted in Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft, under the 5.5 line (ESPN draft tracker). (Round 1 WRs: Carnell Tate (Pick 4), Jordyn Tyson (Pick 8), Makai Lemon (Pick 20), KC Concepcion (Pick 24), Omar Cooper Jr. (Pick 30) = 5 total.)
“And the other thing I'll throw in here is you're seeing more teams draft offensive tackles specifically. Like we can go in a lot of the markets are just offensive linemen in general. But when you want to dial down just to the offensive tackles and then zoom out larger to the offensive line market, there's money to be made because over the last two years, eight tackles, not even counting like centers, guys switching to guard and stuff, guys that were projected as tackles. Over the last two years, eight of them have been taken in back-to-back years. And now you can get the line. Last time I looked was at seven, seven and a half. Yeah, both of those give me the overs because history is showing in a lot of these markets, and again, going back to the economics of the NFL,”
9 offensive linemen were drafted in Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft, over the 7.5 line (ESPN draft tracker). (Round 1 OL: Spencer Fano (9), Francis Mauigoa (10), Kadyn Proctor (12), Olaivavega Ioane (14), Blake Miller (17), Monroe Freeling (19), Max Iheanachor (21), Keylan Rutledge (26), Caleb Lomu (28) = 9 total.)
“And if you want to talk about just stacking up production, if I'm going to get plus 1,000, plus 1,400 in some spots on Rueben Bain Jr. to go second overall, yes, please.”
Rueben Bain Jr. was not drafted 2nd overall; he went 15th overall to Tampa Bay, while the No. 2 pick was David Bailey to the New York Jets (ESPN draft tracker). (Rueben Bain Jr. selected 15th overall (Tampa Bay Buccaneers); No. 2 overall was David Bailey (EDGE, Texas Tech, New York Jets).)
“Simon, what about you? Yeah, this is the boring time, right? Either take the long shots or take the really juiced up lines, like over one and a half quarterbacks. I think it's minus 250, minus 225 in most books.”
2 quarterbacks were drafted in Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft, over the 1.5 line (ESPN draft tracker). (Round 1 QBs: Fernando Mendoza (Pick 1, Raiders), Ty Simpson (Pick 13, Rams) = 2 total.)
“I mean, I really like Purdue laying the six and a half.”
Purdue 79, Texas 77 — Purdue edged Texas 79-77 in the Sweet 16; Purdue's 2-point margin falls well short of covering -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Give me Iowa plus 110 at Hard Rock.”
Iowa 77, Nebraska 71 — Iowa beat Nebraska 77-71 in the Sweet 16; Iowa's moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“my best bet here is under 142.5 between St. John's and Duke.”
Duke 80, St. John's 75 — Duke beat St. John's 80-75 in the Sweet 16; combined 155 points busts the under 142.5 (ESPN box score).
“the Tennessee Volunteers plus 155 versus Iowa State we're just going out on a limb that Jefferson isn't going to play given how bad that injury was and he was you know scooting around in a boot the other day so we are going with the Tennessee Volunteers our brass balls bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Bet plus 155 versus Iowa State”
Tennessee 76, Iowa State 62 — Tennessee beat Iowa State 76-62 in the Sweet 16; Tennessee's moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“So I do have an exotic here. You can find in the markets three plus upsets based on the seed line in the Sweet 16. There's eight total games, three or more. So essentially over under two and a half, three or more upsets on the seed line to happen in the Sweet 16. And that's a plus money bet. You can find that about plus 113 or plus 117 if you shop around. So I do think that that will happen.”
The 2026 Sweet 16 had exactly 3 seed-line upsets, clearing the over 2.5 (ESPN box scores). (Sweet 16 seed upsets: No.3 Illinois over No.2 Houston (65-55), No.9 Iowa over No.4 Nebraska (77-71), No.6 Tennessee over No.2 Iowa State (76-62) = 3 upsets, over the 2.5 line.)
“The games are St. John's Duke, Duke six and a half, Alabama, Michigan, Michigan nine and a half, Michigan State, UConn, UConn two and a half, UConn 25 to one. That's my pick to win it all.”
Michigan 69, UConn 63 — UConn lost the 2026 national championship game to Michigan 69-63 on April 6, 2026 in Indianapolis; the futures bet busts (ESPN box score).
“well the one I like here Hard Rock actually has the best price out there So if you like this play go to Hard Rock and bet it SMU minus six and a half is what I like here in the first four”
SMU 79, Miami (OH) 89 — Miami (OH) beat SMU 89-79 in the First Four on March 18, 2026; SMU lost outright by 10, well short of covering -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“yeah I've got three games that I want to talk about so I like Wisconsin's team total over 87 and a half the big south is on an 0-5 against the spread run in the NCAA tournament high point”
High Point 83, Wisconsin 82 — High Point upset Wisconsin 83-82; Wisconsin's team total of 82 fell short of the 87.5 over (ESPN box score).
“So I like the under at 136.5. I've got this one about 78 to 52 type of game.”
Duke 71, Siena 65 — Duke beat Siena 71-65 in the first round; combined 136 points, under the 136.5 total (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go Idaho Houston under 136 and a half. Kelvin Sampson is a great under coach”
Houston 78, Idaho 47 — Houston routed Idaho 78-47 in the first round; combined 125 points, under the 136.5 total (ESPN box score).
“So Long Island and Arizona, this is a dead nut under 152.”
Arizona 92, LIU 58 — Arizona routed Long Island 92-58 in the first round; combined 150 points, under the 152 total (ESPN box score).
“So I taking their team total under 63 and a half”
Virginia 82, Wright State 73 — Virginia beat Wright State 82-73; Wright State's team total of 73 exceeded the 63.5 under (ESPN box score).
“I also think it's an under game, 138.”
Kansas 68, Cal Baptist 60 — Kansas beat Cal Baptist 68-60 in the first round; combined 128 points, under the 138 total (ESPN box score).
“In fact, I have an exotic bet that I really like here. If you look at the total sum of the seeds to make the final four, you can find a book out there that has over under nine and a half. And I think if you look at the under, that's probably a way to go.”
The 2026 Final Four was No.1 Michigan, No.1 Arizona, No.2 UConn, and No.3 Illinois; seed sum = 7, under the 9.5 line (ESPN scoreboard). (Final Four seeds: Michigan 1, Arizona 1, UConn 2, Illinois 3 = sum of 7 (under 9.5).)
“exotic out there. Total number of wins accumulated by participants from the WCC. So you got the Zags in there, St. Mary's and Santa Clara. That total is three and a half. I think the Zags alone are capable of winning at least three games in this tournament and Santa Clara and St. Mary's will both have opportunities to accumulate at least one win so when you look at the totality of that I think it's more likely than not you're going to get over three and a half wins from WCC participants in this tournament.”
WCC tournament teams combined for just 1 win in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, well under the 3.5 needed (ESPN box scores/schedules). (Gonzaga 1 win (beat Kennesaw State 73-64, lost to Texas 74-68 in Round 2); Saint Mary's 0 wins (lost to Texas A&M 63-50 in Round 1); Santa Clara 0 wins (lost to Kentucky 89-84 in OT, Round 1). Total = 1 win.)
“I'm definitely betting Wisconsin minus 10, minus 10.5 at Hard Rock. Now I'm minus 9.5. I love betting Big Ten schools. I think last year in round one, Big Ten started 8-0. It's just a great conference for basketball. They're just so well coached. This Wisconsin team, they're really good. If they have their A-plus game, they could easily win this game by 20. So I like the fact that, especially now that it's under 10, you can get it 9.5 at Hard Rock. All right. Simon Says, Wisconsin, minus 10.”
High Point 83, Wisconsin 82 — High Point upset Wisconsin 83-82 outright; Wisconsin lost by 1, nowhere near covering -9.5 (ESPN box score).
“TCU plus 120 in the first round against Ohio State.”
TCU 66, Ohio State 64 — TCU beat Ohio State 66-64 on Xavier Edmonds' late layup; TCU's moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“[33:13] I do agree with you that, you know, it's a toss-up for best actor, [33:16] and I did invest in Michael B. Jordan at, like, 201”
Michael B. Jordan won Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards for his dual role in Sinners (Wikipedia).
“Chad's Choice presented by Hard Rock Bet is one of those Seattle alts, Seattle minus six and a half plus 115 at Hard Rock Bet.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Seattle beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX; Seahawks' 16-point margin covers -6.5 (NFL.com).
“New England Patriots first drive punt minus one third teen.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — New England's opening offensive drive stalled after Drake Maye was sacked by Derick Hall for a 10-yard loss, and the Patriots punted on 3rd-and-11 (Wikipedia game summary).
“I bet the Seahawks at minus three and a half the second the game opened.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Seattle beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX; Seahawks' 16-point margin covers -3.5 (NFL.com).
“I bet the Seahawks again at four and a half.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Seattle beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX; Seahawks' 16-point margin covers -4.5 (NFL.com).
“I have bet the Seahawks at minus 25 and a half.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Seattle's 16-point margin (29-13) falls short of the -25.5 spread (NFL.com).
“He's had 29 yards or more, six of the seven. So I'm going to skip your 20 yards that you're going for. And I'm going to play my escalator on yardage here, 30 yards plus 160.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Kenneth Walker III had 2 catches for 26 receiving yards in Super Bowl LX, clearing the 20-yard line (Wikipedia box score). (Kenneth Walker III: 26 receiving yards (2 rec))
“Patriots team total under 20 and a half. That's the first bet I'm going to give out here.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — New England scored 13 total points in Super Bowl LX (a Mack Hollins TD reception and a Rhamondre Stevenson TD reception), under the 20.5 team-total line (Wikipedia scoring summary). (New England team total: 13 points)
“So you build two separate parlays and I'm playing both Seattle defense, special teams, touchdown with the Seattle money line, plus eight 33 Patriots, Patriots defense special team touchdown with their money line plus 2700.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Uchenna Nwosu returned a Drake Maye interception 45 yards for a Seattle defensive touchdown, and Seattle won the game outright 29-13 — both legs hit (Wikipedia scoring summary).
“Patriots defense special team touchdown with their money line plus 2700. You have both together.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — New England had no defensive/special-teams touchdown and lost 13-29, so both parlay legs miss (Wikipedia scoring summary).
“defenders can win MVP. We've had 10 defensive MVPs, more defense than running back, more defense than receiver. It's about one every seven in the Super Bowl. Defensive MVP you can get just at 15 to one. Every defender, I get half the guys on the field at 15 to one.”
Kenneth Walker III, a running back, was named Super Bowl LX MVP — not a defensive player (NFL.com).
“for the deadline and we're going to run it back rashid shaheed rushing yards over two and a half”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Rashid Shaheed had 1 rushing carry for -5 yards in Super Bowl LX, well short of the 2.5-yard line (Wikipedia box score). (Rashid Shaheed: -5 rushing yards (1 carry))
“So I like, Chad, I like the receptions bet as my base here. Over two and a half receptions.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Kenneth Walker III had exactly 2 receptions in Super Bowl LX, not enough to clear the 2.5-reception line (Wikipedia box score). (Kenneth Walker III: 2 receptions)
“And I'm going to play my escalator on yardage here, 30 yards plus 160.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Kenneth Walker III had 26 receiving yards in Super Bowl LX, short of the 30-yard threshold (Wikipedia box score). (Kenneth Walker III: 26 receiving yards)
“So I like over 39 and a half Hunter Henry yards. It's plus 105 at one book.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Hunter Henry had 3 receptions for 31 receiving yards in Super Bowl LX, short of the 39.5-yard line (Wikipedia box score). (Hunter Henry: 31 receiving yards (3 rec))
“So over 39 and a half, but 50 yards plus 155.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Hunter Henry had 31 receiving yards in Super Bowl LX, short of the 50-yard threshold (Wikipedia box score). (Hunter Henry: 31 receiving yards)
“Seattle minus four and a half. First half, New England plus three and a half.”
SEA 9-NE 0 (1H) — New England trailed 0-9 at halftime of Super Bowl LX, a 9-point deficit that busts the +3.5 first-half line (Wikipedia scoring summary).
“Over, under, we're going with the total under 45 and a half.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Super Bowl LX's combined score was 42 (SEA 29, NE 13), under the 45.5 total (NFL.com).
“We're going with Drake Maye completions over 19 and a half.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Drake Maye completed 27 of 43 passes in Super Bowl LX, clearing the 19.5-completion line (Wikipedia box score). (Drake Maye: 27/43 completions)
“these. Over, under, we're going with the total under 45 and a half. We're going with Drake Maye completions over 19 and a half. And we're going with Rhamondre Stevenson, total rush yards, under 53 and a half.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for 23 yards in Super Bowl LX, under the 53.5-yard line (Wikipedia box score). (Rhamondre Stevenson: 23 rushing yards)
“I'm like you. I took a position on the Patriots at 3.5. Seahawks. I mean on the Seahawks at 3.5.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Seattle beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX; Seahawks' 16-point margin covers -3.5 (NFL.com).
“I bet the Seahawks again at four and a half just because the juice was still at minus 110 at one book and it was moving at minus 112, minus 15 at other books.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Seattle beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX; Seahawks' 16-point margin covers -4.5 (NFL.com).
“I gave him one of my favorite bets first quarter under seven and a half.”
SEA 3-NE 0 (1Q) — Super Bowl LX's 1st quarter ended Seahawks 3, Patriots 0 (Jason Myers 33-yard FG only score); combined 3 points is under 7.5 (Wikipedia scoring summary).
“My first bet I made which turns out to get some great CLV and you love to see that I took Drake Maye over 29 rushing yards It is now at like 38 I see in the market somewhere So that bet long gone”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Drake Maye rushed 5 times for 37 yards in Super Bowl LX, clearing the 29-yard line (Wikipedia box score). (Drake Maye: 37 rushing yards (5 att))
“I took Stefon Diggs under 18.5 longest reception. I believe that's only down to 17.5 on the market.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Stefon Diggs' longest reception in Super Bowl LX went for 26 yards (3 rec, 37 yds), clearing the 18.5-yard line so the under loses (Wikipedia box score). (Stefon Diggs: 3 rec, 37 yds, longest 26 yds)
“I'll take Seattle first half and full game. You're getting like plus 130, plus 140 range, depending on the book, which is a lot different than that minus 230 on the money line.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Seattle led 9-0 at halftime and won the game 29-13, hitting both the 1st-half and full-game leg (Wikipedia scoring summary). (Halftime: SEA 9, NE 0)
“I took under nine and a half. I'm asking you to shop out there. I took first quarter under nine and a half.”
SEA 3-NE 0 (1Q) — Super Bowl LX's 1st quarter ended Seahawks 3, Patriots 0 (Jason Myers 33-yard FG only score); combined 3 points is under 9.5 (Wikipedia scoring summary).
“I bet the Seahawks minus three and a half immediately.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Seattle beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX; Seahawks' 16-point margin covers -3.5 (NFL.com).
“I bet Darnold at some plus number that's come down to win MVP.”
Kenneth Walker III (Seahawks RB) was named Super Bowl LX MVP, not Sam Darnold (NFL.com).
“I bet Rashid Shahid to win MVP.”
Kenneth Walker III (Seahawks RB) was named Super Bowl LX MVP, not Rashid Shaheed (NFL.com).
“And then I also bet Kenneth Walker III over 20 and a half receiving yards because we've seen like week after week he's getting more and more involved in their pass game”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Kenneth Walker III had 2 catches for 26 receiving yards in Super Bowl LX, clearing the 20.5 line (Wikipedia box score). (Kenneth Walker III: 26 receiving yards (2 rec))
“I'm trying to find my bet now. They don't have it up. The exact, my Simon says I want to give out, unfortunately, people. So it's Simon says whenever you can get it, get it. It's not going to change. I don't care what the number is. The under in the first quarter. I want to play a game. Simon says. Always blindly take the first quarter under in the Super Bowl. With Tom Brady, it was a gift by the gods. I think in his career, out of his whatever, 11 Super Bowl appearances, he went over the first quarter once. but every other quarter it's the same for everybody right it's you're waiting all day for this game everyone's so tight in that first quarter it's such a feel out and these are two good defenses so you know again I don't know what it's going to be the total opened at 46 it's come down in a couple different books so I'm assuming their first quarter will come down as well but if we're lucky and they give us that 10 and a half 10 it's a no-brainer Simon says slam it so unfortunately I'm like I've gone to a couple different books since we've been on and I just haven't found it But yeah, that's for right now, like for talking first bet, I'm going to make for a decent amount of money that that's going to be one of my bigger positions. But yeah, this game breaking it down. I love it Like watching you know film all season on both these teams you know both have their glaring weaknesses and they overcome a lot of it with just really good coaching And um you know we talk all the time how important the quarterback position is and how important important the coaches And you look at this matchup and it like you know two coach of the year candidates, like the MVP, the two coach of the year candidates, the shortest odds variable in McDonald's. Yeah. And which is again, so fair when you like break it down, when you give those future Superbowl odds and it's like, yeah, Ben Johnson, is he deserving of course but you know these two teams they got the one they got the two seed that's why these coaches are where they're at so um you know i okay man mitch said he's only he's seen seven and a half minus 115 for that first quarter which again that that sounds right i'd price it like that so i was hoping we get the 10 seven and a half the book seemed like they're on it so i'd still take it but yeah hopefully you can be patient maybe get a better number than that but”
SEA 3-NE 0 (1Q) — Super Bowl LX's 1st quarter ended Seahawks 3, Patriots 0 (Jason Myers 33-yard FG only score); combined 3 points is under 7.5 (Wikipedia scoring summary).
“We're also on this game over 42 and a half in the contest.”
NE 10, DEN 7 — Patriots beat Broncos 10-7 in the AFC Championship; the combined score of 17 fell well under the 42.5 total, so the over lost (ESPN box score).
“I'm over his 31 and a half passing attempts.”
NE 10, DEN 7 — Jarrett Stidham went 17-of-31 passing for 133 yards in the AFC Championship; his 31 attempts fell short of the 31.5-attempt line, so the over lost (ESPN box score). (Jarrett Stidham: 31 passing attempts (17/31, 133 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT))
“I think I did an alt over his 260 passing yards.”
NE 10, DEN 7 — Jarrett Stidham threw for 133 yards (17/31) in the AFC Championship, well short of the 260-yard alt line, so the over lost (ESPN box score). (Jarrett Stidham: 133 passing yards (17/31, 1 TD, 1 INT))
“I would say the prop I'd give on this show, I took his over rushing yards. I mean, that's. I took Drake Maye over 40 rushing yards.”
NE 10, DEN 7 — Drake Maye rushed for 65 yards on 10 carries in the AFC Championship, clearing the 40-yard line, so the over won (ESPN box score). (Drake Maye: 65 rushing yards on 10 carries)
“Let me just finish because the parley I did, the SGP I did was Stidham over 260 passing yards, Stidham over 30, it's 32 plus passing attempts, and Drake Maye 40 plus rushing yards.”
NE 10, DEN 7 — In the AFC Championship, Jarrett Stidham finished 17/31 for 133 yards (missing both the 260-yard and 32-attempt legs) while Drake Maye ran for 65 yards (clearing the 40-yard leg); with two of three legs losing, the SGP busts (ESPN box score). (Jarrett Stidham: 17/31, 133 yds; Drake Maye: 65 rushing yards on 10 carries)
“as soon as we got off the show I bet it”
NE 10, DEN 7 — Patriots beat Broncos 10-7 in the AFC Championship on Jan 25, 2026; Denver's 3-point loss was within the +5.5 spread, so the bet won (ESPN box score).
“I'm taking Denver plus four and a half.”
NE 10, DEN 7 — Patriots beat Broncos 10-7 in the AFC Championship on Jan 25, 2026; Denver's 3-point loss was within the +4.5 spread, so the bet won (ESPN box score).
“I did give out the Super Bowl future just because that's where the value is.”
Denver was eliminated in the AFC Championship, losing 10-7 to New England (ESPN); the Patriots then lost Super Bowl LX 29-13 to Seattle on Feb 8, 2026 (ESPN), so the Broncos futures bet to win the Super Bowl lost outright.
“is allowing. I don't think we're betting money line on the Broncos here. I did take a taste of the Broncos to win the Super Bowl because why not when all of a sudden there's a team in the title game for the weekend and they're 11 to 1, 12 to 1, 13 to 1. That's just a rarity. You might as well take a flyer.”
Denver was eliminated in the AFC Championship, losing 10-7 to New England (ESPN); the Patriots then lost Super Bowl LX 29-13 to Seattle on Feb 8, 2026 (ESPN), so the Broncos futures bet to win the Super Bowl lost outright.
“I mean, like we're both at with a Franklin anytime touchdown, like a Denver plus four and a half anytime touchdown with Franklin. That's going to be crazy good odds. I can put that in real quick in the hard work. I love that idea. But that's a really fun parlay for the first game.”
NE 10, DEN 7 — Denver lost 10-7 to New England in the AFC Championship; the Broncos' 3-point loss was within +4.5 so that leg won, but Troy Franklin recorded no receptions or touchdowns in the ESPN box score, so the anytime-TD leg lost and the parlay busts.
“New England at Denver. This game at Hard Rock Bet. I looked it up this morning on the Hard Rock Bet app. Denver plus five and a half. The total is 42. Look, obviously the story here is Jarrett Stidham starting for Bo Nix. Line hasn't really budged since Sunday night. There's actually one five out there, and there's a couple of totals at 41 and a half. And Simon, I want to ask you, like, I thought if Bo Nix was starting this line one and a half or two, you know, a seven point swing. What do you think? Simon says, give me the Denver Broncos. I want to play a game. Simon says. I might be putting my life savings on this Broncos team with this number, Chad.”
NE 10, DEN 7 — Patriots beat Broncos 10-7 in the AFC Championship on Jan 25, 2026; Denver's 3-point loss was within the +5.5 spread, so the bet won (ESPN box score).
“the broncos money line if you i am obviously going to bet it it's the move here is simply take the Broncos at 13 to 1 for the Super Bowl.”
Denver was eliminated in the AFC Championship, losing 10-7 to New England (ESPN); the Patriots then lost Super Bowl LX 29-13 to Seattle on Feb 8, 2026 (ESPN), so the Broncos futures bet to win the Super Bowl lost outright.
“I bet the Hoosiers at minus 7.5 while I'm here in Florida”
IU 27, MIA 21 — Indiana beat Miami 27-21 in the CFP National Championship on Jan 19, 2026; the Hoosiers' 6-point margin fell short of the -7.5 spread, so the bet lost (ESPN box score).
“I'd want to do Patriots minus three and a half.”
28-16 — Patriots beat Texans 28-16; New England's 12-point margin covered -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“my biggest investment is once I heard those trends and the numbers about the money line, I really invested heavily in England's money line.”
28-16 — Patriots beat Texans 28-16 outright; the moneyline bet cashes (ESPN box score).
“We talked about Houston, New England, the total, the side, but just to be clear we are on houston new england and the under if you can get the 41 get it it's also at 40 and a half below the key number i took it at 40 and a half this was our brass balls i think we're gonna have a hard time leaving this one out of the contest too yeah i mean live um”
16-28 — Patriots beat Texans 28-16, combined 44 points, over the 40.5 total (ESPN box score).
“your game day goals at halionassist.com slash con all right brother listen i'm leaving the last one up to you. I think we're locked in on Seattle, San Francisco under 45 and a half in the contest, San Francisco plus seven and a half, New England minus three and a half, and the total in the New England-Houston game, which is 40 and a half. I'm sort of at a loss on the other games. I know you love the Rams, so it's at four and a half in the contest. We can also get 48 and a half on the total in that game or do we just go off the board with Buffalo and Denver and take the over in that game even though I don't like anything in that game yeah like we talked the the 49ers one we both love I get all those stats right I think it was Purdy 4-0 against the spread straight up in his career he's never lost in Seattle winning those games by 10 points per game so it's he's obviously been dominant and when he goes up there brock pretty but yeah for that for that bills denver game you know i gave you those stats it's really really hard to win back-to-back playoff games on the road especially when you have a banged up team so it stinks for us i wish i i could dig in more and be be heavy on denver but the josh allen effect i think both of us is just scared us off but yeah i am obviously still in the denver But yeah, if you want to go with the over in that game, I could support it. But to me, if I had to give out the five I like, I would do 49ers plus seven and a half. I'll do the under with you. I'd want to do Patriots minus three and a half. I'll take the under with you in that one as well. And for the last one, if I had to stick it in, I guess I would go Rams over Denver here just because at the end of the day, I won't hate myself if I lose on Stafford against Caleb.”
20-17 — Rams beat Bears 20-17 in overtime; Los Angeles's 3-point margin fell short of covering -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“Rams minus four at Chicago. Here's a great stat for you. 40 years ago this week, the Chicago Bears last played the Los Angeles Rams in the playoffs. I was at that game with my buddy Matt. Matt and I will be watching the game together in much warmer conditions than we did that day in Chicago, watching it from Miami. Back then, it was the monster of the midway Super Bowl shuffle Chicago Bears who completely dominated the Rams, and they were favorites. Bears underdogs here, but it's going to be icy. It's going to be conditions. I'm getting pictures from friends of the George Hallis statue outside of the shoulder field just covered in snow. What are we doing here? I know what I'm doing. I'm definitely still on this Rams team. For full game, I'm doing it, but obviously my bigger bets I've talked about, my positions are the Rams first half. It's minus two and a half now, I believe, and obviously the under for the first half.”
Rams and Bears were tied 10-10 at halftime; Los Angeles's 0-point first-half margin fell short of covering -2.5 (ESPN box score). (1H: Rams 10, Bears 10 (tied))
“the Rams and Chicago the first half under we liked it at 25 and a half on Tuesday It a 23 and a half We still recommending you take the under at 23 and a half Let get a quick word from our”
Rams and Bears were tied 10-10 at halftime (combined 20 points), under the first-half 23.5 total (ESPN box score). (1H: Rams 10, Bears 10 (20 combined))
“It really was two or three really smart groups came in on Denver with me, I guess I should say, with the plus one and a half. And, you know, we all grabbed it.”
33-30 — Broncos beat Bills 33-30 in overtime; Denver's 3-point margin covered +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“And, again, I don't know if I'm as confident in the money line. I wish I was in this Seattle, this Niners team. I probably will throw a little bit on it at some point. But right now, for me, my biggest position is obviously the 7, the 7.5 on this 49ers team. It just feels like way too many points.”
6-41 — Seahawks beat 49ers 41-6; San Francisco lost by 35, failing to cover +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm with you on that. I just think it's going to be a really close, low-scoring game. And I wish I'd given out, honestly, the 7.5, as Simon says. But just as happy to give out the 7. I think that's still a great number on 49ers. Well, look, the 7.5, I played it as well with you. But a big number like this also, it's harder to cover when the total is as low as it is. The bookmakers are kind of telling us something here by setting the total where it is and having the number where it is and that it's moved in the direction of the Niners. You got it like 24-17, right? That's sort of what it could feel like, maybe 24-21, which is why it was so important to get the half point. But that's kind of how this game shapes up because you've got to believe that Kyle Shanahan will manufacture some points.”
6-41 — Seahawks beat 49ers 41-6; San Francisco lost by 35, failing to cover +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“our Brass Balls Bet of the Week presented by Hard Rock Bet We going under 41 You know what it takes It takes brass balls”
16-28 — Patriots beat Texans 28-16, combined 44 points, over the 41 total (ESPN box score).
“your game day goals at halionassist.com. Okay, so the first Sunday game is Houston at New England. Very interesting moves here. The line has ticked up from two and a half to three. Total has come down from 41 to 40 and a half. Nico Collins did not practice, probably not going to play from the concussion. Christian Gonzalez, who had been in the protocol, did practice for the Patriots yesterday. This is a low total for a game with two good quarterbacks. And yet, our Brass Balls Bet of the Week presented by Hard Rock Bet We going under 41 You know what it takes It takes brass balls Yeah we love it I've talked about I'm getting bullied here into New England, which I'm happy to do it because to me, the Houston one felt so easy. It's like, of course, you just take Houston here, a team that has the better defense, has an offense that, as much as crap we give them, how inconsistent they've been, you know down the stretcher they've been much better than what obviously they started the year right they've kind of found their way and their identity as the season going along here but the nico collins stuff i'm with people that's going to push me over right you're losing a star player christian gonzalez is already practicing so that's a huge huge deal to me the fact they're losing already a key piece of their offense that's what they've struggled right they've struggled consistently moving the ball this season and now you're losing nico you know cj's favorite number one just feels like a huge deal and i do think this will go up to three and a half i don't miss every book right come come kick go i can see new and i'm getting up to that number again so i love the under love new england and uh you know this is this is a tough one to swallow and i'm”
16-28 — Patriots beat Texans 28-16, combined 44 points, over the 41 total (ESPN box score).
“I'll go Patriots minus three.”
28-16 — Patriots beat Texans 28-16; New England's 12-point margin covered -3 (ESPN box score).
“Patriots minus three.”
28-16 — Patriots beat Texans 28-16; New England's 12-point margin covered -3 (ESPN box score).
“The Chicago Bears hosting the Los Angeles Rams, 6.30 p.m., Sunday night, January 18th. Bears are four-point underdogs right now at Hard Rock. The total is 49. It's come down from, you know, an opener of 52 way early in the week. Most of the week was at 50, 50 and a half when we spoke on Tuesday at least. the weather is just wreaking havoc with this game. I highly recommend everybody go check out a story on ESPN.com today by John Kahn. And it's a really fun story about how players handle the cold. Some of the coolest things that stood out for me, Stafford, thanks to advice from Tom Brady, plays in these really cold weather games in a scuba suit. And Sean McVay wears a scuba suit. And they say it doesn't restrict their movement. At least Stafford says that Brady says that And it a great way to sort of maintain you know some kind of protection against the cold The flip side is how many players talked about the pain that comes from having jammed, sprained fingers in the cold. It just feels like your finger is cracking when you are holding a football, trying to block someone. They say the pain is unlike anything they felt and Matthew Stafford is going into this game where it's supposed to feel like it's negative four with a badly sprained finger yeah I gave you that's that it's it's we're seeing history here that's the second time in NFL history a team will be back-to-back games as a home underdog which is what the Bears will be right and the other time it happened I gave you that stat it happened with The Eagles, 2017 to 2018, they obviously won both those games as home dogs. If I was a Bears fan, I'd be hyped up like Chad just gave you. You're getting exactly what you want. You're getting an indoor team from California, outdoors in the element, with a quarterback that might have a banged-up finger. I get why Chad's so excited. It's peak right now for Bears fandom. What was the first time you guys have won a home game in the playoffs in like 30 years or since the Super Bowl run? 20 years? I mean, it's been like five coaches since we won a playoff game. Right. And, you know, like everyone else, the public has the same exact data we have about the weather. So everyone's just coming in hammering this Bears team. Like I said, the professionals are split. For money-wise, I know more money has been on the Rams from pros, right? And I'm interested to see where these groups do. Like, will the groups come in heavier on the Rams and we'll just go back up to four, four and a half on this Ram side? Because right now it is all bears money for the most part. Like everywhere I've seen and, you know, bookmakers I've talked to, it's all bears money. The total is split, right? I think pros have come in and would done what we've done, which is take the first half on her. But overall, it's actually pretty split towards the over. I will give the one good stat I could find about Stafford. And again, like Chad said, this doesn't hold too much truth to it because this is something he's never played in before, right? This is just for under 40 degrees. I've seen so many stats about how bad he is in cold weather. It simply not true In his career he is 7 in games under 40 degrees because we all know he played in the NFC North for 15 or whatever it was 12 years 10 years Stafford, he is 4-1 against the Bears when it's below 40 degrees, obviously at Soldier Field. And when he's favored, so he's been favored eight times when it's below 40 degrees. He is 5-3, but out of seven of those games, he's had a QB rating of a plus 100. so he doesn't struggle horribly i mean i just gave you the data there like he you know i looked at it early in his career he really did which makes sense right he what he played at georgia was a dome quarterback in detroit he did struggle in lambo he did struggle uh what was it we have two years when they played at minnesota play at the minnesota college stadium yeah um which is crazy to think back to and then obviously soldiers field he's actually done pretty well there when it's been cold but this is a different beast so yeah i'm i i i'm betting the rams i can't believe it like i was i thought i'd be on the bears at this point”
20-17 — Rams beat Bears 20-17 in overtime; Los Angeles's 3-point margin fell short of covering -4 (ESPN box score).
“we've seen Blake Corum and Kyron Williams have fumble problems and that is something the Bears are really good at so who knows that could have an impact but I'm still leaning to the under in this game I understand why people are are pushing it back up I like that it got to 49 the fact that you're on the Rams worries me a little bit it shouldn't though like I know plenty of pros I mean again the pros that are on the Bears their biggest reason is what they keep banging the table about is if Bryce Young in the playoffs can light up this defense what is Caleb and Ben Johnson well look they're they're secondary like they were great at the start of the year but it might have just been because they were playing bad quarterbacks yes and they've been terrible in the latter half of the year and that to me is like pause right I wanted to be all over this under like we just talked about the weather both teams to me they're going to be a run script heavy type of teams just because we've seen it when it's cold like this it's hard to grip the ball and catch it that's how stupid picks and turnovers happen right when you're throwing these tight windows it's popping out of guys hands and um we already know ben johnson loves running ball mcveigh is the same thing me and chad lose our minds because mcveigh chooses to run the ball so much especially when his team has a lead so really really fun game and a really tricky total and obviously side but yeah i think i i'm almost positive i'm gonna end up taking the ramps here in my pick contest i'm gonna take the under as well”
20-17 — Rams beat Bears 20-17 in overtime, combined 37 points, under the 49 total (ESPN box score).
“This right now, this under, I keep betting it. So even 24.5, that's not scaring me off. Once it dips down to 22.5 or gets below 23.5, then I'll fall down betting. But right now, it's still high enough that I'm happy to keep taking that first half under. I would say for right now, those three are my biggest bets.”
Rams and Bears were tied 10-10 at halftime (combined 20 points), under the first-half 24.5 total (ESPN box score). (1H: Rams 10, Bears 10 (20 combined))
“Sharp versus square. I think we both got killed last week. So do you want to go first? Yeah, I'll lean into it. I'll go Patriots minus three. All right. Then you know what I'll do? Bears first half under. Okay. What number are you going to take? Oh, just give me the 24 at least. It's up to Matt Mitchell. He can give you the 24 minus something. Well, Matt Mitchell is just going to come on the air and call us Jagoff. So just give me the 24. Hey, Jagoffs, you can have the 24.”
Rams and Bears were tied 10-10 at halftime (combined 20 points), under the first-half 24 total (ESPN box score). (1H: Rams 10, Bears 10 (20 combined))
“I laid the eight and a half with Indiana.”
27-21 — Indiana beat Miami 27-21 to win the CFP National Championship; Indiana's 6-point margin fell short of covering -8.5 (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, Jack, give me a Denver Broncos, Simon Says, plus one, brother.”
33-30 — Broncos beat Bills 33-30 in overtime; Denver won outright, covering +1 (ESPN box score).
“is going to be the under 45 and a half Are you sure you want to do this Are you willing to make a choice What choice”
6-41 — Seahawks beat 49ers 41-6, combined 47 points, over the 45.5 total (ESPN box score).
“Like I said, I'm not trying to fall into a trap here again because it's like I can't believe they're giving us plus three. I want to talk to the pros, see what they're seeing here, but my early inclination is even, I should say, what I'm betting right now. I've already bet the plus three, and I bet the under right away. But I will let you know on Thursday if I'm missing something here. You know, I'm walking right into it once again, but I could not believe it. I couldn't believe they opened Houston at this big of a dog.”
16-28 — Patriots beat Texans 28-16; Houston lost by 12, failing to cover +3 (ESPN box score).
“to 50 and a half i would grab that under”
20-17 — Rams beat Bears 20-17 in overtime, combined 37 points, under the 50.5 total (ESPN box score).
“Like I've already bet the minus 13 and a half on the Hoosiers.”
27-21 — Indiana beat Miami 27-21 to win the CFP National Championship; Indiana's 6-point margin fell short of covering -13.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm definitely throwing a bet on the hurricanes money line.”
21-27 — Miami lost the CFP National Championship 21-27 to Indiana; the moneyline bet busts (ESPN box score).
“Well, I'm taking the Rams at minus ten and a half.”
34-31 — Rams beat Panthers 34-31 (margin +3), failing to cover -10.5 (ESPN box score).
“is something that we have agreed on. We both played the under 44 and a half.”
31-27 — Bears beat Packers 31-27, combined 58 points, over the 44.5 total (ESPN box score).
“And we'll take out the Packers under and we'll put in Packers minus 1.5. So our final five are going to be the Packers. It's minus two and a half in the contest. The Packers are? Yeah.”
27-31 — Packers lost outright to the Bears 27-31, failing to cover -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“San Francisco at Philadelphia, the under 44 and a half. I'm talking about the under because this line has now pushed up to six. We've been talking about the Eagles as a side since they were minus three on Sunday. We talked about it on Tuesday at four and four and a half. We talked about it again at four and four and a half. the value in the side is gone whereas we still both like the under 44 and a half san francisco philly um trim williams is confident he'll play for the niners lane johnson practice all week is still questionable but he has practice for the first time in in nearly two months something about trim williams playing actually makes me like the under a little bit more because”
23-19 — 49ers beat Eagles 23-19, combined 42 points, under the 44.5 total (ESPN box score).
“Los Angeles Chargers holding strong as three-and-a-half-point underdogs at the New England Patriots. There was a tweet this morning Matt Mitchell sent along to us that Bailey Zappi has more wins against teams that are over 500 in his career than Drake made us. This was our brass balls, and there's still 60% of the money or the bats coming in on the Patriots, and this number has not budged from three and a half. No one likes fading an MVP candidate. When he's playing in his first playoff game, Every trend tells you this is a bad spot to back the favorite, especially when he's playing a quarterback who has been covering as a dog consistently. So I still love the Chargers here.”
3-16 — Patriots beat Chargers 16-3; Los Angeles lost by 13, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Suckers. If anything, it gives us even more confidence, like you're saying here. It hasn't budged at all despite all this money coming on this Patriots team. A couple books did touch four, but immediately went back down. So, you know, like we always talk about, this is a late Sunday game. We'll see if the public absolutely gets crushed and they're chasing pretty heavy. Maybe they come in heavier on the Patriots. We do get some force popping, but I have no issue grabbing the three and a half still now. Like I'm looking at it right now. Some books are starting to juice it up. You're starting to get minus 115, minus 118s on it. So you can still get the 105s, the minus 110s, the minus 3.5. I would grab it now, or plus 3.5. On the Chargers, I would grab it now.”
3-16 — Patriots beat Chargers 16-3; Los Angeles lost by 13, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Simon says this week was the Pittsburgh Steelers plus 3.5 hosting the Houston Texans. This line is down to 3. Could get down to 2.5. It's juiced in a direction where it could get down to 2.5. We both loved it at 3.5. You talked about still liking it at 3. I don't really have any reason to back away from this game. I think the Steelers win this game outright.”
6-30 — Texans beat Steelers 30-6; Pittsburgh lost by 24, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“And I've seen a couple groups already move on the Indiana minus three and a half, so now it's going up back to four. So, like I said, for five days, it was all Oregon from the pros. They were just telling me, like, you got to be on Oregon here. I don't want to be on Oregon. I've always wanted to back you, be with Indiana. I've just been winning on them. It's been fun to bet them. They just, like I said, they just feel so well coached. And, yeah, it'll be interesting what happens tomorrow with the linemen. But if you see it keep going up, that is professional money coming in here. Like I said, they were hoping to get the three. I don't think it's ever going to get there. I think this is too talented of a team. The public is just too heavy on Indiana as well. So, um, interesting if it gets to four and a half at any point, maybe then I would take Oregon, but my three and a half, I'm happy taking the Hoosiers here.”
IU 56, ORE 22 — Indiana beat Oregon 56-22 in the CFP Peach Bowl semifinal on Jan 9, 2026; Indiana's +34 margin covers -3.5 (Wikipedia).
“Mac Jones beat them. They must be like 15-2. Yeah, so that's where like, again, Evan killed me. Evan had all these trends. It like Panthers Panthers Panthers And I was like you know what I not gonna do it I gonna stay with Chad take this Rams team here they the better team I know there a little bit of weather coming in here as well if you want the honest truth I know pros who are just hammering this under like I talked about these these outdoor unders it's you're asking a lot of Bryce Young in his first playoff game to match the pace that Stafford's gonna set even if Stafford comes out slow which he has these last couple weeks but what like I said I think it's a Devontae Adams thing it's just it's just been different without him once he gets into a role so yeah it's it's crazy we're taking the chalk is better the week chad but i i'm with you it's uh minus 10 at hard rock that's too good of a number to pass on evan has his trends there's always a counter trend right so killer sports”
LAR 34, CAR 31 — Rams beat Panthers 34-31; Rams' +3 margin falls short of the -10 line, selection busts (ESPN box score).
“We can go back a long time, 20 and 40 straight up, a quarterback in this exact position that Caleb Williams is in. So, you know, I wanted to get there in the Bears, but the more I talked to the pros and I saw where they were going with it, I did grab some more Green Bay plus one and a half. I'd still grab it now minus one and a half. As long as it doesn't go both two, I think you're getting a good number on Green Bay.”
CHI 31, GB 27 — Bears beat Packers 31-27; Packers' -4 margin fails to cover +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“So I'll take Bears, Packers under 45 and a half.”
CHI 31, GB 27 — Bears beat Packers 31-27, a combined 58 points; the under 45.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“The kicker right now heavily favors the Jags. This guy hits bombs. Yeah, yeah. in the rain so again it's all the everything we like about the bills is simply that o-line and josh allen the rest of it is heavily favored to this jags team so i'm not going to get sucked in chad i'm going to i'm going to draw draw a line here i'm going to take the jags i'll take them to the point where the line flips so if you can still still get the plus one and a half that to me is the position if not just just take the over the over here is gonna be the fun play”
BUF 27, JAX 24 — Bills beat Jaguars 27-24; Jaguars' -3 margin fails to cover +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“Eagles, minus four and a half.”
SF 23, PHI 19 — 49ers beat Eagles 23-19; Eagles lost outright, the -4.5 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“San Francisco with Philadelphia. Philadelphia's a four and a half point favorite still. Total's 44 and a half. Welcome to Philly, bitch. Lane Johnson, that was the tipping point for both of us, was limited in practice on Wednesday. But Adam Schefter said he is expected to play the line and some places did tick up to fives. I'm still with you on the Eagles. I do think he is like Trent Williams. for the Niners. This team is just so different when he is in there from a run-blocking perspective and a pass-blocking perspective. His replacement just isn't as good. Slight movement down on the total, 45 to 44.5. Again, same stat I've given you before. This is another one of those games where the team that lost six or more, or that only won six games or less the previous season in the playoffs, 21-38 against the spread. The Niners apply here. I like them both. I like the side and I like the total. Love the total. This was my favorite total Unfortunately it has come down I did open 46 and now it been hit down to 44 but I just don know how the 49ers are going to move the ball especially the fact that Trent Williams has not practiced yet again”
SF 23, PHI 19 — 49ers beat Eagles 23-19, a combined 42 points; the under 46 covers (ESPN box score).
“But we're not going to fade the trend on this last game on Sunday. Los Angeles Chargers at the New England Patriots. They are three and a half point underdogs. Simon, this is going to be our Brass Balls Bet of the Week. Presented by Hard Rock Bet. You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. Total is 46 and a half.”
NE 16, LAC 3 — Patriots beat Chargers 16-3; Chargers lost by 13, the +3.5 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Chargers plus three and a half. Absolutely love it.”
NE 16, LAC 3 — Patriots beat Chargers 16-3; Chargers lost by 13, the +3.5 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“They don't want to have to make a decision. They can just let this line sit. And yeah, for totals, I think me and Chad are on the same page again for this one. 46 and a half. I can see the quarterback laying a total leg and this being well under that number. So I got this at 42 and a half. Four points is rare for someone like me. So I'm a little worried I'm missing something here, but I haven't gone too heavy on the under here, but I do love this total as the under.”
NE 16, LAC 3 — Patriots beat Chargers 16-3, a combined 19 points; the under 42.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“so Pittsburgh by far my biggest bet I love it not only the trends do that I love it but I also love the matchup And yeah, plus three, it's going to end up being my biggest side. I wish I could have got more than a three and a half, but the books, they just limit early in the week like this now. So I'm hoping come Friday after these college football games, right? I'm going to hit the books right after this. Hopefully win on Indiana with that extra money and throw it, roll it over here on this Pittsburgh team at a plus three.”
HOU 30, PIT 6 — Texans beat Steelers 30-6; Steelers lost by 24, the +3 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Chad's Choice presented by Hard Rock Bet. [13:40] Los Angeles Rams minus 10.”
LAR 34, CAR 31 — Rams beat Panthers 34-31; Rams' +3 margin falls short of the -10 line, selection busts (ESPN box score).
“Take the under 46.5.”
LAR 34, CAR 31 — Rams beat Panthers 34-31, a combined 65 points; the under 46.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“most of the year yeah and that why i just expecting all the money and everybody just to come in very heavy on this bear side so you can get the plus one and a half on green Bay I grab it now but like this is the game I not I haven't bet a lot of money into.”
CHI 31, GB 27 — Bears beat Packers 31-27; Packers' -4 margin fails to cover +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“reason this game's 51, like the total is 51 and a half.”
BUF 27, JAX 24 — Bills beat Jaguars 27-24, a combined 51 points; the over 51.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“wear and tear so they're playing a rested team against this Eagles team and this Niners had an all-out brawl the week before against Seattle. So I totally get why the pros have come in so heavy on this Eagles team. And I'm going to grab it now. I think it keeps going up. I think if Lane Johnson gets cleared, I can easily see this creeping up back again to five and maybe close at six. And this is why I love this week so much. This is the biggest home favorite this week. Isn't that not crazy? Eagles minus four. It's just this season was so good in this playoffs. It just lined up that way with these home teams. Eagles, the biggest favorite is minus four. It's crazy. The best the number was three. You don't mind it at four.”
SF 23, PHI 19 — 49ers beat Eagles 23-19; Eagles lost outright, the -4 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“But, yeah, the Eagles defense, obviously not as good as Seattle. But like you said, one of the best pass defenses in football this season has been the Eagles. So it's going to be a true test for Purdy here on the road. Again, the total is 45. Hammer that under. Hammer that under.”
SF 23, PHI 19 — 49ers beat Eagles 23-19, a combined 42 points; the under 45 covers (ESPN box score).
“Last game on Sunday, the Los Angeles Chargers plus three and a half visiting the New England Patriots. I will refer to your comment a few weeks ago when we were talking about the Patriots. I can't wait to fade the Patriots in the playoffs. We know the trends you've mentioned at the top about first-year quarterbacks in the playoffs against veteran quarterbacks. We bet the Chargers on Sunday night at three and a half. It's one of the few numbers that kind of hasn't moved. No juice movement, no number movement. Total in this game is 46. We're on the Chargers, even though their offensive line is decimated and we know that the Patriots are getting totally”
NE 16, LAC 3 — Patriots beat Chargers 16-3; Chargers lost by 13, the +3.5 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“And, you know, another game where the under just feels like the right number where I cannot believe this felt like it was going to be a 42, 41 total. I got to tell you. 47 they don't know 47 chads right down to 46 and a half so i keep betting that one this feels like a defensive slug match and i gave up those numbers charges defense number one against deep ball pass I love this. Drake May, one of the best deep ball throwers this season, easily. Best test he's had all year is going to be the Chargers defense, trying to throw deep, especially against James and that safety. The total feels so high for a game where –”
NE 16, LAC 3 — Patriots beat Chargers 16-3, a combined 19 points; the under 46.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Biggest bet by far this week has been Pittsburgh on the three and a half.”
HOU 30, PIT 6 — Texans beat Steelers 30-6; Steelers lost by 24, the +3.5 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“he gave you that stat about rogers he will be a dog every round in this playoffs but let's really think about this people what is his path when you break this down what is his path and right now you can get him a 55 to 1 to win the super bowl which i don't know if it's going to happen i don't think it's going to happen obviously i mean tomlin hasn't won a playoff game in six times their own six gets the spread and straight up their last six playoff games it's it's been bad but this is exact break he needs he finally has that veteran quarterback who's been there since he's had Roethlisberger and an offense that has been played better down the stretch and their path I just can't get over it you're telling me what stands in their way is the two seed of Drake May or a Brock you know Bo Nix at the one seed a team and none of us really true believe in Denver as good as their defense has been and you know as great as Bo Nix played this season I could still lie to myself and see a path ran Rogers and this team can get through that like there's just there is no Mahomes and as much as I'm scared of Josh Allen and the bills it wouldn't be at home he would have to become to Pittsburgh I already gave you those stats he just is a different quarterback on the road so I I just see this for Rogers this Pittsburgh team I know it sounds crazy but you just have to throw a little bit on If you don want to take the money line here I think that the bet Don take the money line Pittsburgh take the 55 to one because we can just hedge it if we want next round But I, for my long shot favorite team, this is by far out of all the teams. I think this has the best value of 55 to one. They were 60 to one. I mean, but the pros bet it down a little bit.”
Seattle 29, New England 13 — The Seattle Seahawks won Super Bowl LX, beating the New England Patriots 29-13 on Feb 8, 2026; the Steelers futures bet busts (Wikipedia).
“And then for the chalk side, I always give out one chalk side. Last year, I've seen nailed it 10 to 1 on the Eagles. Same thing this year. I already broke it down for you. I still think they're the best team in the NFC. Their Achilles heel is going to be the OC. I think Petulo is truly an idiot in the position that you need to be the smartest person in the room. In the NFL, the OC needs to be the smartest person. The defenses are so complex these days. You really need a genius. And that's fearful to me. but everything I've read, Ciarani's helping out the QB coach. Everyone has had their imprint on this offense. And you've seen, they're listening to the, listening to the nerds. Like they're taking more snaps on their center, which is better for them offensively. They run better out of it. And now with Lane Johnson coming back, I just think this team's being undervalued by the public. Like they're the defending Superbowl champs. No one's talking about that way. Like when you hear, they keep saying how it's wide open, even though, you know, this team could have been the two seed. So it's, it's slept on right now. I think you can get them 11 to one or 10 to one, a couple of different books. I just don't be ready. I think it's a homer in me. It's really not. I'm just going off the numbers. I have them as a slight favorite over the Seahawks right now. The books have the Seahawks are the one. And then right behind them, the Rams, like to me, that's insane when you really think about it. So yeah, I, I'm going to take the Eagles at longer odds than those two teams. All right. So futures, we like the Steelers 55 to one. We like the Eagles at about 10 to one right now, because they are behind the Seahawks and the Rams.”
Seattle 29, New England 13 — The Seattle Seahawks won Super Bowl LX, beating the New England Patriots 29-13 on Feb 8, 2026; the Eagles futures bet busts (Wikipedia).
“I'm on the Bengals at the seven, I think.”
CLE 20, CIN 18 — Browns beat Bengals 20-18; Bengals' -2 margin falls short of the -7 line, selection busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm also big on the Bengals and the Rams money line today.”
LAR 37, ARI 20 — Rams beat Cardinals 37-20 outright; Rams moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“But a three, three and a half, come on. You got to take the Lions. The Bears, even against bad teams this year, they just play close games. It's just who they are. They play these type of close games. So give me the three and the hook with this Lions team.”
DET 19, CHI 16 — Lions beat Bears 19-16; Lions' +3 margin covers the +3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Steelers plus three and a half, Chad.”
PIT 26, BAL 24 — Steelers beat Ravens 26-24; Steelers' +2 margin covers the +3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“It's going to be Josh Johnson here. So, yeah, it's a number that's going up. Like you can get the four right now at Hard Rock. Every other book is four and a half. And a couple books have already moved to five. So it's just another line I'm betting. I like the Eagles here. I like this matchup. And if this is, you know, a close game heading into the fourth, you know, I think that favors this Eagles team in many ways. I just think defensively when you have Vic calling these plays, he could turn up to another level. And like I said, Brainerd Graham's playing. Like a lot of vets are still playing for this Eagles team, especially on the defensive side. They just don't have enough bodies to fill in. So, yeah, give me an Eagles team against a Washington team”
WSH 24, PHI 17 — Commanders beat Eagles 24-17; Eagles lost outright, the -4 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“i'm gonna i'm gonna be with the public i'm gonna take the three on the cowboys now because i think that's such a key number”
NYG 34, DAL 17 — Giants beat Cowboys 34-17; Cowboys lost outright, the -3 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“um before we get to heroes and shame of the week uh let's talk about the steelers and the ravens because i know people are going to want to go watch that in a few minutes so i don't want to shortchange it before the line has moved to four and a half yeah i'm only emboldened to take the Steelers now? Like to me, this is an overcorrection in the market compared to what we believed it should be. It could be. I have no reason. I honestly hate this, but I hate that we have to do it. And that's why I made it. Simon says it's like, I knew I was going to hate it, but I have to do it. I, I, once again, I'm living with the shame forever. I bet in the Ravens is a five and a half point favorite in this matchup of the year. So Pittsburgh, I thought this land would keep getting higher. It went to three and a half after our show down from four. and we talked about it, it's going to steam up, right? The public, it's the last game of the season. They're going to come in with whatever money they won or whatever they're chasing on and bet this Ravens team. So, yeah, no problem. Grab the four and a half. I'm not going to keep giving out the stats. It's just you bet the dog here. It's what we do.”
PIT 26, BAL 24 — Steelers beat Ravens 26-24; Steelers' +2 margin covers the +4.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Let's talk about some playoff leans quickly. Bills, one and a half point favorites over the Jaguars. The Bills currently do not have a place kicker. They cut Michael Badgley. Matt Prater got hurt again today. I don't know what they're going to do. Matt Mitchell is apoplectic. the Jags are one and a half point dogs at home. The small market team getting disrespected. Yeah. And it's, I don't know. It does. I'm going to hit it. I'll hit the plus one and a half now on the Jags, obviously, but I would be shocked. I'm not a strong opinion here.”
BUF 27, JAX 24 — Bills beat Jaguars 27-24 in the AFC Wild Card game; Jaguars' -3 margin fails to cover +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“with the Carolina Panthers, plus two and a half.”
TB 16, CAR 14 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 16-14; Carolina lost by only 2, covering the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“you're talking about this seven yards seven yards I just want to point out I did bet Rico Dowdle 25 plus yards rushing and parlay it with Rico Doudle, his anytime touchdown. Because the anytime touchdown odds are about plus 117. If you parlay it with his 25 plus yards, you're getting it for plus 130.”
Rico Dowdle rushed 7 times for 10 yards with 0 touchdowns in Carolina's 16-14 loss to Tampa Bay, missing both the 25+ rushing yards leg and the anytime-touchdown leg (ESPN box score). (Rico Dowdle: 7 att, 10 rush yds, 0 TD)
“But the fact that it's three and a half, never going to avoid it. Love this number for the Saints team.”
ATL 19, NO 17 — Falcons beat Saints 19-17; New Orleans lost by only 2, covering the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Cincinnati Bengals minus seven and a half.”
CIN 18, CLE 20 — Browns beat Bengals 20-18; Cincinnati lost outright as a -7.5 favorite, missing the spread (ESPN box score).
“Simon says, was the Pittsburgh Steelers plus three and a half, hosting the Baltimore Ravens in the last regular season game of the year on Sunday night football. We're both all in on the Pittsburgh Steelers.”
PIT 26, BAL 24 — Steelers beat Ravens 26-24; Pittsburgh won outright, covering the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Give me the 49ers plus one and a half.”
SEA 13, SF 3 — Seahawks beat 49ers 13-3; San Francisco lost by 10, missing the +1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“just because it is such a wild week uh speaking of money lines money line underdog parlay My dog likes your dog. Your dog likes my dog. I got Pittsburgh Carolina San Francisco New Orleans Love it Moneyline favorite You just mentioned two of them I had Cincinnati and the Rams”
Moneyline underdog parlay busts: Steelers ML won (beat Ravens 26-24); Panthers ML lost (fell to Buccaneers 16-14); 49ers ML lost (fell to Seahawks 13-3); Saints ML lost (fell to Falcons 19-17) — one losing leg sinks the parlay (ESPN box scores).
“We know Panthers are going to be the public side, but what are we supposed to do here? People know this show. They know us. This is thank God we can avoid at least some. contest and it's a Saturday game. But I love it. I love it. I bet it. We think we both bet the three when it's on Sunday night, but the three and a half and I bet the money line.”
TB 16, CAR 14 — Panthers lost to the Buccaneers 16-14; Carolina moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“It just we have to blindly bet it Like I trying to give you all the stats We just have to buy Carolina So we love them we know it the public side at least we both have good numbers i hope people listen to sunday and got a good number i i am with chad though i would take the money line as well i wouldn't let the two and a half scare you off i'd still bet that we talk all time it's such a key number but the nfl messed up with this game i think we both know that they did not think the falcons were in now even if the the panthers lose this game they can still make the playoffs if the Falcons beat the Saints on Sunday. So a bizarre game, honestly, Chad, like a game I'm, I'm not putting too much into because it's moved off the three, but I am still on the Panthers, especially hearing all those stats. I really, it gives me confidence”
TB 16, CAR 14 — Panthers lost to the Buccaneers 16-14; Carolina moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“We bet the Bengals minus seven.”
CIN 18, CLE 20 — Browns beat Bengals 20-18; Cincinnati lost outright as a -7 favorite, missing the spread (ESPN box score).
“So I'm taking a pretty big position here on the Bengals money line,”
CIN 18, CLE 20 — Bengals lost to the Browns 20-18; Cincinnati moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I like Chad like I bet Dallas now especially at minus three and a half”
NYG 34, DAL 17 — Giants beat Cowboys 34-17; Dallas lost by 17, missing the -3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Minnesota. They're visiting. Green Bay is visiting Minnesota. It opened at five and a half. We said, grab it. We expected this line to go up. That's what happened. It's moved up to six and a half. Really, this is about, we still don't know who's going to be playing quarterback. we expect it to be Malik Willis for the Packers. Matt LaFleur said Malik Willis could have come back into the game on Sunday night. If the record, if the score was a little bit closer, he's also said they've learned their lesson from last season when they didn't have much at stake in the final game of the year. They lost Christian Watson for the year up for most of this year to a bad injury. And they actually Jordan Lovager, at his hand so we know they're probably going to arrest a lot of starters in this game no matter who's playing quarterback and we also know that this number has moved to six and a half even though you know a preponderance of the tickets are coming in on green bay so it's professionals that are moving the money um we're sticking with minnesota and the brian flores defense here”
MIN 16, GB 3 — Vikings beat Packers 16-3; Minnesota won by 13, covering the -6.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“on sunday for the minnesota vikings la chargers at the denver broncos broncos are minus 12 and a half obviously they have so much to play for they got to lock in the number one seed the chargers have nothing to play for, which is why Trey Lance is starting a quarterback. I watched a little bit of Trey Lance in the preseason, enough to tell myself I don't hate Trey Lance, but at the end of the day, I don't see this being one of our final five. No? Oh, my God. I was hoping you would love this. I love the Chargers here. Okay. Okay. It's Bo Nix as a big favorite in his division, and I think I saw some crazy stat. He's like 2-9 this season as a favorite when he was, what was he, 8-0 last year as a favorite. So totally came crashing back down to earth. And, yeah, you could say it's a horrible match for the Chargers. Agree. Like, they're going to be sitting everybody. Now they're sitting their backup offensive linemen, so their backups are play. Like, it's going to be disastrous, I'm sure. But this just feels like a ton of points with a mobile quarterback that, you know, we could get the backdoor easily. It's just how hard will the Broncos be playing the second half, right? It's going to be a really unique, interesting spot. And yeah it really is about the number here Like even with Trey Lance I didn make this bigger than 10 It 12 12 and a half a lot of books I could see all the parlays all the teasers coming in on the Broncos come Sunday and we might be able to get to 13 Chad So I'll be patient here. I'm definitely grabbing the 12 and a half while they're out there, but I can only see this one getting bigger. I'm just not sure other than professionals who's going to be better on this Chargers team. So it'll be interesting how the number goes and where the Broncos end up, if they end up at 13 or if this starts coming back down a little bit. Well, like I said, I don't hate it.”
DEN 19, LAC 3 — Broncos beat Chargers 19-3; Los Angeles lost by 16, missing the +12.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“everyone got hurt. I think we got a real game with Detroit at Chicago and Chicago is a two and a half point favorite. They both, both coaches have said they're playing to win. Uh, the bears need it for potential seating. Like we just discussed the lions need it for pride pun intended. And Dan Campbell would sooner quit before he wasn't going to play a game at full tilt. So we got a real handicap, my friend, the line has moved in the bears direction one and a half to two and a half. but only a slight majority of the bets coming in for the Bears. So this feels more like a wise guy move than a public move. The Bears may not have Roma Dunze, probably not going to have Luther Burden. What do you think? I know what I think and I don't like to say it because I'm proud of my team, but I don't think they're the team this week. I don't think we see the Bears win another game this season oh my god I know it just it feels that way that felt like a turning point yeah I'm not gonna lie where it's like oh I disagree on that yeah you think they win this game they win a playoff game I'm not talking about this game I think the Lions are the right side in this game but I came away from that game against the Niners so encouraged like the way they played Caleb was still missing his easy passes but when like he can make some plays and i feel like they should come out of that game thinking they went toe to toe with one of the best teams in the conference and they were one bad sort of alignment away from having a better chance to win that game i'm not discouraged as a fan coming out of that game at all all right i'm just telling you from a professional standpoint that when i look at this i'm like oh my god they might not win another game the rest of the year because it's a hard matchup and they have the playoffs and it just feels like it's a losable game in the round one matchup your your defense is horrible that been your issue all year you lived on the turnovers and um lucky for you Goff seems like he got the turnover bug This dude cannot stop turning the ball over So I'm simply just playing the number here. It's three now with multiple books. So this number is getting hit by professionals. Now they've bumped it up to three. How do I not take that side? And I'm going to give out these Campbell stats, but I keep saying I hate that I'm doing it because they might be Ben Johnson stats. But it is interesting. Campbell with the Lions, 4-0 straight up, 4-0 against the spread in week 18. In week 17 and 18 in his career, he is 8-2 against the spread. That's including not covering last week. Jared Goff, man Campbell, as a dog, we know the deal, 29-14 against the spread. It's like you just got to bet it, and when they end up closing as a dog, they're 23-13. So I know it's all these numbers. I keep saying they might mean nothing, but I just have to keep trusting that they'll get this offensive going. And against a bad Bears, I think the Bears can win, Chad, no doubt. I think they are the better team right now. They're clearly the more healthier team, even with all their injuries. That offensive line has got a lot of shoes. I just can the Bears take advantage. Do you guys have pass rushers that can take advantage of that bad offensive line? And unless Goff doesn't turn the ball over, I just feel like this is going to be a back and forth type of game. So if it was still a pick or minus one on the Bears, I think I could be on the Bears side here. But now we're hitting the three. I mean, come on. You have to take the lines at that number. So it's it's tough for me. I love this Bears team, but I just I see it.”
CHI 16, DET 19 — Lions beat Bears 19-16; Detroit won outright by 3, covering the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“everyone got hurt. I think we got a real game with Detroit at Chicago and Chicago is a two and a half point favorite. They both, both coaches have said they're playing to win. Uh, the bears need it for potential seating. Like we just discussed the lions need it for pride pun intended. And Dan Campbell would sooner quit before he wasn't going to play a game at full tilt. So we got a real handicap, my friend, the line has moved in the bears direction one and a half to two and a half. but only a slight majority of the bets coming in for the Bears. So this feels more like a wise guy move than a public move. The Bears may not have Roma Dunze, probably not going to have Luther Burden. What do you think? I know what I think and I don't like to say it because I'm proud of my team, but I don't think they're the team this week. I don't think we see the Bears win another game this season oh my god I know it just it feels that way that felt like a turning point yeah I'm not gonna lie where it's like oh I disagree on that yeah you think they win this game they win a playoff game I'm not talking about this game I think the Lions are the right side in this game but I came away from that game against the Niners so encouraged like the way they played Caleb was still missing his easy passes but when like he can make some plays and i feel like they should come out of that game thinking they went toe to toe with one of the best teams in the conference and they were one bad sort of alignment away from having a better chance to win that game i'm not discouraged as a fan coming out of that game at all all right i'm just telling you from a professional standpoint that when i look at this i'm like oh my god they might not win another game the rest of the year because it's a hard matchup and they have the playoffs and it just feels like it's a losable game in the round one matchup your your defense is horrible that been your issue all year you lived on the turnovers and um lucky for you Goff seems like he got the turnover bug This dude cannot stop turning the ball over So I'm simply just playing the number here. It's three now with multiple books. So this number is getting hit by professionals. Now they've bumped it up to three. How do I not take that side? And I'm going to give out these Campbell stats, but I keep saying I hate that I'm doing it because they might be Ben Johnson stats. But it is interesting. Campbell with the Lions, 4-0 straight up, 4-0 against the spread in week 18. In week 17 and 18 in his career, he is 8-2 against the spread. That's including not covering last week. Jared Goff, man Campbell, as a dog, we know the deal, 29-14 against the spread. It's like you just got to bet it, and when they end up closing as a dog, they're 23-13. So I know it's all these numbers. I keep saying they might mean nothing, but I just have to keep trusting that they'll get this offensive going. And against a bad Bears, I think the Bears can win, Chad, no doubt. I think they are the better team right now. They're clearly the more healthier team, even with all their injuries. That offensive line has got a lot of shoes. I just can the Bears take advantage. Do you guys have pass rushers that can take advantage of that bad offensive line? And unless Goff doesn't turn the ball over, I just feel like this is going to be a back and forth type of game. So if it was still a pick or minus one on the Bears, I think I could be on the Bears side here. But now we're hitting the three. I mean, come on. You have to take the lines at that number. So it's it's tough for me. I love this Bears team, but I just I see it. I hate it when I see these things happen, but I just I see them kind of faltering here in this exact spot. And they need to win it on my opinion. They need to win this game and get Green Bay at home. They do not want Stafford coming in with this Rams team. Oh, yeah, I agree. I'd much rather have the Packers than the Rams. And we're going to talk about the Rams in a second. I'm just, I'm not worried that anything, I thought you were referring to the Bears' confidence cratering. That, to me, isn't the issue. I think they're going to be highly confident. I think they're going to look at that game and be like, guys, we're so ready to be elite. We can play with any team in the NFL offensively. We never have to worry about being out of the game. We never have to worry, no matter what the score is, that we're not going to be able to come back because this offense is so good. So good That it We take the Lions Hey listen man to say that I proud of you would be the massive understatement Composure communication”
CHI 16, DET 19 — Lions beat Bears 19-16; Detroit won outright by 3, covering the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Arizona to the Los Angeles Rams. Los Angeles Rams are seven-point favorites right now at Hard Rock Bet. This is going to be Chad's Choice presented by Hard Rock Bet. Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice? What choice? we can't run from where we are sharp dudes can just see it you know what i mean when asked if the rams would play their starters in week 18 sean mcveigh said oh they're playing we need to play better so to me this is a normal handicap not a week 18 handicap and let me give you some stats about the cardinals they remember in the beginning of the year where like the Carls are playing close, they're playing hard. They started September, October with losses of 1.3 points, 1.4 points, and four points. Their November, December losses have been 22 points, 19 points, 3-3, 32, 20, 7, and 23. Three of those blowouts, losses came in the division i'm taking the rams in a get right spot against a team that has no answers defensively and very few answers offensively as we've seen again and again and again no matter who they're playing”
LAR 37, ARI 20 — Rams beat Cardinals 37-20; Los Angeles won by 17, covering the -7 spread (ESPN box score).
“Baltimore visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh Steelers are three and a half point underdogs. Little surprise This moved up We both talked about it on Sunday night We both took the Steelers at plus three So many sort of narratives that are regular themes in our show And as we talk about betting, the Steelers, home underdogs, Mike Tomlin, rah-rah spot, historically great spot. One of the best in the history of the NFL as a head coach at covering this number at home. This game between the Ravens and the Steelers, historically, the underdog is covering this game over the past 20 years in these battles between Harbaugh and Tomlin, 60%. Add in, we don't know who's going to be playing quarterback yet for the Baltimore Ravens. Add in, we don't know who's going to be quarterback for either of these teams next year because there's a lot of drama going on in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson. We don't know what's going to happen with Aaron Rodgers. So a lot of subplots here. I'm a little surprised the line moved from three to three and a half, to be honest, because I still like the Steelers a lot. Simon says, give me this Pittsburgh Steelers team plus three and a half. I want to play a game. Simon says, I am like you. I cannot believe the public and the professionals are coming in on this Raven side. You know, it's a little weird. I once was lost, Chad. I am now found. That's how I feel about this game i cannot believe when i went through our record that we took the ravens as a five and a half point favorite it was stupid yeah we just were lost and one of our most egregiously bad decisions in the history of our show and just not us we just blindly take this number that's why i'm making it simon says we have no excuse we can't avoid it we are dug in here on pittsburgh and i'll give out the stats we love these stats so much i love them every time i read them”
PIT 26, BAL 24 — Steelers beat Ravens 26-24; Pittsburgh won outright, covering the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“We currently have Tennessee plus two and a half in the contest. [6:54] I still love it. [6:55] This is the side of the wise guys, Tennessee.”
NO 34, TEN 26 — Saints beat Titans 34-26; Tennessee lost by 8, well outside the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“We had been betting Cleveland long before the expectation that they wouldn't be playing starters because we're going back to our roots. We're betting Cleveland at home with a great defense that we hope returns to being a great defense. And we're fading the Steelers in a road favorite anti-Mike Tomlin rah-rah spot. I will say it makes me a little nervous. I think the line has moved from three to three and a half because the public has been coming in on the Steelers.”
CLE 13, PIT 6 — Browns beat Steelers 13-6; Cleveland won outright, covering the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“The Buffalo Bills currently two-point favorites at Hard Rock. It was down to one on Thursday. A lot of that, I think, is because we were unsure of Josh Allen's status with his injured foot. He came out and said he's good to go. He's playing. The Buffalo Bills, Simon, are going to be our rock in a hard place, hard rock, bet of the week.”
PHI 13, BUF 12 — Eagles beat Bills 13-12; Buffalo lost outright as a -2 favorite, missing the spread (ESPN box score).
“for the last game we've leaned into before we get to some that we're still considering [14:20] the chicago bears plus three and a half at the san francisco 49ers the sunday night”
SF 42, CHI 38 — 49ers beat Bears 42-38; Chicago lost by 4, missing the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Number one, Carolina opened as a three-and-a-half-point road underdog against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I bet the three-and-a-half.”
TB 16, CAR 14 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 16-14; Carolina lost by only 2, covering the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I also bet the money line on the Carolina Panthers.”
TB 16, CAR 14 — Panthers lost to the Buccaneers 16-14; Carolina moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“For this Carolina game, I'm like you. Immediately, I'm going to grab that three.”
TB 16, CAR 14 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 16-14; Carolina lost by only 2, covering the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“The other game, Pittsburgh hosting the Baltimore Ravens. They opened as three point underdogs. I also bet the Pittsburgh Steelers in this spot.”
PIT 26, BAL 24 — Steelers beat Ravens 26-24; Pittsburgh won outright, covering the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“The other game, Pittsburgh hosting the Baltimore Ravens. They opened as three point underdogs. I also bet the Pittsburgh Steelers in this spot. Yeah, we're the suckers. I mean, there's nothing to say, nothing to process. People listen to the show, they knew immediately we'd be betting Pittsburgh at that number. Let's see. The definition of a Tomlin, rah-rah spot. Yep. I hate it. I knew it was coming. As soon as they lost that game, I go, oh, my God. I hope they at least give us a three when they open this night at two and a half. So I'm with you. I know it's a sucker bet right now, but I have to grab that number.”
PIT 26, BAL 24 — Steelers beat Ravens 26-24; Pittsburgh won outright, covering the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“You can get Minnesota minus five and a half right now. Why would we not take that? Like they're playing for real.”
MIN 16, GB 3 — Vikings beat Packers 16-3; Minnesota won by 13, covering the -5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I know it tough because we just lost on you know or I said that we just won on Cleveland but Cleveland on the road at Cincinnati and they just been an absolute juggernaut It feels like down the stretch here at Cincinnati Not just defensively, offensively, obviously. Crushing. Yeah, they're minus 7, minus 115, minus 110 in a couple books. I'm going to take it just in case it goes up.”
CIN 18, CLE 20 — Browns beat Bengals 20-18; Cincinnati lost outright as a -7 favorite, missing the spread (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Texans at two and a half.”
HOU 20, LAC 16 — Texans beat Chargers 20-16 on Dec 27, 2025; Houston won outright by 4, covering +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“The Texans at the Chargers, I'm so bummed we can't put this into our Sharper Square contest with all of our listeners because we both love the Texans here. I bet the Texans at two and a half. I bet them on the money line. D'Amico Ryan, 16% ROI as an outright underdog as a head coach. But look, this is all about betting against the Chargers offensive line. I just will not be fooled by them beating up on the Cowboys and looking great against a team. that did what it did against Josh Johnson in the second half on Christmas. I won't be fooled by them beating up on the Eagles and getting that win when Jalen Hurts had so many turnovers in that game. I'm just not buying it.”
HOU 20, LAC 16 — Texans beat Chargers 20-16 on Dec 27, 2025; Houston won outright, so the Texans moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“day goals at halion assist.com slash con new orleans at tennessee this line is now down to two and a half at hard rock it opened at three and a half we've been betting it or at least i have um i also bet tennessee on the money line so look you've said it the wise guys are on it um uh i i don't love that there is a majority of the tickets coming in on the titans it makes me feel like we might be backing a little bit of a public dog but i just start to feel better after you said the wise guys have been pounding this as well yeah and that's fair it could it could be a little bit”
NO 34, TEN 26 — Saints beat Titans 34-26 on Dec 28, 2025; Tennessee lost outright by 8, not covering +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“um i also bet tennessee on the money line so look you've said it the wise guys are on it”
NO 34, TEN 26 — Saints beat Titans 34-26 on Dec 28, 2025; Tennessee lost outright, so the Titans moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“indianapolis colts plus six and a half yeah and that's that's why i like the the denver's part”
JAX 23, IND 17 — Jaguars beat Colts 23-17 on Dec 28, 2025; Indianapolis lost by 6, covering +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“I bet him at one.”
PHI 13, BUF 12 — Eagles beat Bills 13-12 on Dec 28, 2025; Buffalo lost outright by 1, not covering -1 (ESPN box score).
“Unfortunately, I bet into the Bills at two and a half. I bet him at one. I bet him on the money line. So I'm overexposed on the Bills”
PHI 13, BUF 12 — Eagles beat Bills 13-12 on Dec 28, 2025; Buffalo lost outright, so the Bills moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Pittsburgh at Cleveland. Simon Cleveland. Browns are a three point underdog at home. Like we said, Plan is moved from four and a half to four to three and a half to three. Cleveland Browns are going to be our Brass Balls Bet of the Week. Presented by Hard Rock Bet. You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. Who knows what's going to happen in this game? If the Ravens lose on Saturday night, will Mike Tomlin all of a sudden start resting starters? We know DK Metcalf is not going to be playing. I think we're leaning into the division rivalry. We're leaning into Myles Garrett going for the sack record. We're leaning into fading Mike Tomlin as a favorite on the road. It's an anti-ra-ra spot. All of those things, as you pointed out, this is where I want to say, a bet on a team with nothing to play for versus a bet on a team with something to play for in the last two weeks of the season, 61% against the spread. you said it more eloquently but now that i remember it and it's in my notes i wanted to share it yeah and it like chad just said it's a very unique spot here where we could be getting a great number because pittsburgh could simply be sitting all their guys right this is a really fun game that you know the ravens i think they're up to minus or plus four and a half now yeah the books are kind of telling you they don't think they're going to win there so um the only thing keeping this number up is it's tons of public money coming in on the Steelers team because they're just seeing the minus three right with a Pittsburgh team that's been beating pretty good competition these last couple weeks playing a Browns team that we all know they're just not very good especially offensively and they've had now they lost Junkins to an injury the running back like it's just it's a nightmare for the Browns but we've been talking all season this Browns team you know they we're a little disappointed then because their defense felt like it wasn't showing up these last couple weeks yeah you know even that bills game you can't really say they dominated or showed up in that game totally uh it was just buffalo really did take the gas pedal off that second half but you know it was another game was close right and you just go through other games you know the tennessee game they lost at home i think they lost by two and that that bills game even though they should have probably lost by 10 or 11 they only lost by three so we've just seen this browns team even as bad as they've been down the stretcher they still have been playing really tough and close games at home. And Chad just nailed it. It's like, it's, this is going to be the Miles Garrett party. And I love the irony of it If it is going to be Mason Rudolph being the quarterback that he gets the sack record against all that just coming together and um yeah it it really interesting we talk all the time about how um I gave out that stat five the last six times Cleveland's beat Pittsburgh outright at home and you know that's with you know Deshaun Watson's backups and just disaster the season these Browns have had these last couple years they've just continually beaten Pittsburgh in the spot at home So never was going to avoid it. We talked about it in the contest. If you got to get the three and a half, it was a great number to lock in because that number just felt like it was going to keep falling. And now that we know that whole Pittsburgh drama with the Ravens, if the Ravens lose Pittsburgh, they've locked up the title of the North. They don't need to play anybody. I just don't see Tomlin risking all these veteran guys they have playing in this game. So this was a game you don't see Rogers and, you know, as much as we like to hate on Rogers, he's been really impressive. Unreal. Yeah. So it's going to be pretty interesting to see how different this team is in a game that just means nothing to them against a Browns team that I think this is going to mean something to them. I think they're going to be playing hard, especially Shadar Sanders, who's still playing for a job here. So I think you're in sync here, Chad. Even if this is two and a half in our contest, I'd still take it, as long as you're getting a good plus number on the Browns. Agree. Simon, you and I, mind mouth. I hope I don't give you COVID. I hate this for being one of my bigger bets this week. It's like I might really load up on Shador and the Browns, but it's a great number. We totally are.”
CLE 13, PIT 6 — Browns beat Steelers 13-6 on Dec 28, 2025; Cleveland won outright by 7, covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“Just really impressive because we say the lines are always moving It a really tough contest So I like you wish we could get this one i love the texans here but maybe uh maybe it for the best i think it's one it would be one and a half in our contest that's where most lines are going so i don't think i care like i i'm betting more on the money line for this game than i am on the side that's fair i i i you know me i'm so into the the number two how it's such a key number i just i feel much Schaefer taking the two, two and a half.”
HOU 20, LAC 16 — Texans beat Chargers 20-16 on Dec 27, 2025; Houston won outright, so the Texans moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Cleveland, no surprise to people.”
CLE 13, PIT 6 — Browns beat Steelers 13-6 on Dec 28, 2025; Cleveland won outright by 7, covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“I'm back in Tampa, and I'm taking the 5.5. [35:47] I've seen actually some pro money. [35:48] That's why I didn't want to talk much about it coming on the Bucs. [35:50] This did go from 5 to 5.5, [35:52] and now I'm seeing a couple books move to six.”
MIA 20, TB 17 — Dolphins beat Buccaneers 20-17 on Dec 28, 2025; Tampa Bay lost outright by 3, not covering -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“And I just have a feeling come Sunday, this Bears side at the plus three, it's going to be one of my bigger bets.”
SF 42, CHI 38 — 49ers beat Bears 42-38 on Dec 28, 2025; Chicago lost by 4, not covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“So if you can get a six and a half, I'd grab it. I grabbed the Cowboys numbers.”
DAL 30, WSH 23 — Cowboys beat Commanders 30-23 on Dec 25, 2025; Dallas won outright by 7, covering -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Texans at two and a half.”
HOU 20, LAC 16 — Texans beat Chargers 20-16 on Dec 27, 2025; Houston won outright by 4, covering +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Texans at two and a half. I took a little piece of the money line. Money line, money line, Noman. That's what they call me.”
HOU 20, LAC 16 — Texans beat Chargers 20-16 on Dec 27, 2025; Houston won outright, so the Texans moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“simon says give me the seattle seahawks minus seven i want to play a game simon says”
SEA 27, CAR 10 — Seahawks beat Panthers 27-10 on Dec 28, 2025; Seattle won outright by 17, covering -7 (ESPN box score).
“Your New Orleans Saints are visiting the Tennessee Titans The number was three I bet the Titans at plus three It is now two and a half at hard rock bet”
NO 34, TEN 26 — Saints beat Titans 34-26 on Dec 28, 2025; Tennessee lost outright by 8, not covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“day goals at halionassist.com slash con philadelphia at buffalo buffalo it's moving in the in the eagles direction it was two and a half i like the bills here i don't think the eagles can stop their run game. I think the Bills have more to play for. I think there's still injury issues for the Eagles who have clinched. They can't get the number one seed. Like, I want to play the Bills. I'm surprised the number is moving against them right now. Me too. Honestly, just because I see no reason why the Eagles would even try in this game. They just feel like they're locked in. They're a team that's had injuries all season. Why not rest a lot of key guys? It's just, you can use these next two weeks to rest guys, but But, you know, the pros maybe just view what I think most of us know. I know the Bills have looked better but honestly when you break this down the Eagles are much better than this Bills team Much better Look we were worried about Mariota as a mobile QB against the Eagles defense and it was playing out exactly that way. Yeah. What about with Josh Allen? Yeah, honestly, it's shocking. Josh Allen, you know, he dominates everyone. I think the Eagles are the only team in his career he's never beaten. He's 0-2, straight up 0-2 against the spread in his career. But I'm like you. It's like the Eagles, what are they playing for? On the flip side, the Bills, they want to roll and destroy this team. Yeah. And they're the best running team of football. They should be able to run it all over this Eagles team that has been suspect against the run all season. And, you know, I just, I don't really, I'm like you, I do not get this one. The pros, they're coming in heavy on this Eagles side. Like this number was up to three in a bunch of books. Now it's, I'm seeing a bunch of one and a halves pop up. So I'm like, you know, maybe there's an injury. Maybe there's an injury we're missing, brother, but I'm with you. It's like one and a half. You can get that right on the bills. I'm all over that number. I just think the bills could easily blow up the Seagulls team here. Yeah. I bet the two and a half. Cause yesterday it looked like it was going to three. I wanted to grab it.”
PHI 13, BUF 12 — Eagles beat Bills 13-12 on Dec 28, 2025; Buffalo lost outright by 1, not covering -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“It's like one and a half. You can get that right on the bills. I'm all over that number.”
PHI 13, BUF 12 — Eagles beat Bills 13-12 on Dec 28, 2025; Buffalo lost outright by 1, not covering -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“The number has moved against the Rams, Monday Night Football, from eight and a half down to eight. So the wise guys are betting the Falcons. I can see it like they have been much, much better with Kirk Cousins. They just have, right? And so, and even last week, Like they struggled against Arizona in the first half. Then they pulled away. They kept Arizona at bay. They didn't let them get that back door. You know, it'll be the kind of game where it's going to be fast, on turf, indoors. Big number for the Rams. I feel like you're going to tell me Sean McVay in December. There you go. Good man. There's nothing but cover for us. Last week, the refs, they tried their best, Chad. They tried so hard to not let us cover that Rams number. We still got there at the plus one and a half. Just incredible. Yeah, it's McVay in December. And even better, it's McVay after a loss in December, which is very rare. Just the fact that it's off a loss. McVay in his career 32 and 19 against the spread off a loss It is the best record for any head coach since he entered the league in 2017 Even better when he off a loss playing at night he eight and four against the spread in his career So tends to, tends to back it up in the sense that they lose games. I mean, that was insane. Like to me, like I was shocked to my model had this at 10 and a half. The more I think about it, more it makes sense, right? They should have won that Seattle game. This show. Yeah. 10, 10 and a half. I mean, that just, never in our lifetime we may never see a team you know 10 minutes later get a two-point gone their way because a guy picked up a football after the whistle which I know people are complaining a lot of people in the sports were complaining and I was shocked too I had to google it they changed a rule I guess in like 2009 that um on a play like that doesn't matter if the whistle is blown it the play is not dead so I know people are upset about that but it's like it doesn't matter I know every other play in football matters. If the whistle is blown, it does matter. On that exact play, a forward pass, it does not matter. A backward pass, I should say. It does not matter if the whistle is blown. So I was, again, losing my mind because I was like, that whistle blew. That's a dead play. That two-pointer should not count. So this feels like a weird number. The Rams are being punched a little bit. Like you said, this is going to be very public. All the Joes are going to be just lining up betting this Rams team. They're going to be in every parlay money line bet. Just you expect them to bounce back and obviously dominate this Atlanta team that they're another team that they've been beating up on. It feels like bad teams here. Now they're playing what I think is the class of the NFC. So, you know, Chad said at the top McVay, December, it's, it's, what is it? Two and O already this, this month so far against the spread. It's, it's been covering. I'm going to keep riding. I just love McVay here in this Rams team.”
ATL 27, LAR 24 — Falcons beat Rams 27-24 on Dec 29, 2025; Los Angeles lost outright by 3, not covering -8 (ESPN box score).
“So then our final five is going to be Tampa Bay at Carolina. We're going with Carolina plus three and a half.”
CAR 23, TB 20 — Panthers beat Buccaneers 23-20 on Dec 21, 2025; Carolina won outright, easily covering +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Buffalo at Cleveland. We're going with Buffalo minus 10 and a half.”
BUF 23, CLE 20 — Bills beat Browns 23-20 on Dec 21, 2025; Buffalo won by only 3, not covering -10.5 (ESPN box score).
“Jacksonville at Denver. We're going with Jacksonville three and a half.”
JAX 34, DEN 20 — Jaguars beat Broncos 34-20 on Dec 21, 2025; Jacksonville won outright by 14, covering +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Pittsburgh at Detroit. We're going with Detroit. It's seven and a half now, but we got it at six and a half in the contest.”
PIT 29, DET 24 — Steelers beat Lions 29-24 on Dec 21, 2025; Detroit lost outright, not covering -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“New England plus three and a half in the contest at Baltimore. That is it.”
NE 28, BAL 24 — Patriots beat Ravens 28-24 on Dec 21, 2025; New England won outright by 4, covering +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to be watching it. At least I am because I did bet the Raiders 14 and a half at Houston.”
HOU 23, LV 21 — Texans beat Raiders 23-21 on Dec 21, 2025; Las Vegas lost by just 2, covering +14.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to keep going to this well of this Colts team. I know the history of them, the Jags, but they're a plus seven right now. Just early line, I'll grab that.”
JAX 23, IND 17 — Jaguars beat Colts 23-17 on Dec 28, 2025; Indianapolis lost by 6, covering +7 (ESPN box score).
“I going to take the plus three I been doing it all season with this Bears team”
SF 42, CHI 38 — 49ers beat Bears 42-38 on Dec 28, 2025; Chicago lost by 4, not covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“And I know I'm banned from talking Tennessee Titans Saints games, but how do I not ride my boy Shook? He's minus two right now on the road against this Tennessee team after a huge Tennessee win. So I might be stepping into a trap here. I'll be patient on that one. I'm going to grab it just in case it goes up to minus three on Shuck on the road.”
NO 34, TEN 26 — Saints beat Titans 34-26 on Dec 28, 2025; New Orleans won outright by 8, covering -2 (ESPN box score).
“line just seem a little fishy to you I I just can't get over where I don't know is Seattle really a one and a half point favorite but I told you I'm too biased I think with this Rams team and Well, you love the Rams all season and you've had them higher rated than anybody else all season. So now they're living up to your rating. And the Seahawks, look, they haven't looked good, right? Like Sam Darnold, they nearly lost to a grandfather, literally. Which again, it's another reason to back them because it's like those are the exact things we like. We like backing the teams that look bad that we know are really good facing a team that, you know, might have had their best game of the season. that was an incredible comeback by the Rams in a really tough spot on a short week now, but I keep going back to all these McVay stats. That's what I keep. I can't get over how incredible McVay has been this late in the year. And, you know, I can read it to people again if they want to hear it. The McVay, 28 and 11 straight up, 27, 11 in the month of December in his career against the spread. Since 2021, he's 17 and 3 against the spread in the month of December. so you know we already know he owns the Seahawks like he just I think this year they didn't cover we definitely bet that the Rams I believe were two and a half point favorites they were up 14 I believe in the in the fourth quarter and the Seahawks backdoored it they they lost by two so they covered the number of they lost by two in a game that they did I just felt like the Rams were way better so like I said if you if you want to follow what I call the fake sharps they're going to be on the Seahawks this week and I think the Rams it's going to be the spot so I'm interested to see where this one goes like I said it's it's a game where maybe I am too close this Rams team I love him too much but I just can't believe people are hammering Sam Darnold as a favorite in this divisional game and like I told you Chad there a lot of really interesting stats about backing mcveigh in this type of spot and uh he actually does really well in short weeks on the flip side you know this seahawks team since they since they faced the rams it's obviously been different coaches different quarterbacks they're only three in the spot of facing the rams on short week where the rams tend to play really well in there and the biggest one jumped out to me is i talked to about the home field advantage for the Seahawks, that's been irrelevant since like 2015. They actually have a losing record at home and against the spread at home in this exact spot. So a short week that's facing a divisional opponent that's above 500. They're 0-6 in this spot, Seattle Seahawks since 2020. So again, it's even with their head coach, he's been there. He's 0-2 in this spot. So it's not a good spot historically for Seattle. And on the flip side, like I said, McVay, he dominates his late season he's just such a prepared coach and um you know another distraction could be had a baby i love that kind of stuff like that's those are my favorite things where coaches or players have babies and i bet on them anytime touchdowns obviously i can't do that mcveigh but i will be taking his side here but like i said it's a game that luckily we can't put in our contest because i'm confident in it but i think i might be blinded to my love of this rams team”
SEA 38, LAR 37 — Seahawks beat the Rams 38-37; Rams covered +1.5, losing by only 1 (ESPN box score).
“show and then actually bet on. Washington at Philadelphia. We talked about this on Tuesday, Saturday night, six and a half point underdogs. The Washington commanders are going to be our Brass Balls Bet of the Week presented by Hard Rock Bet. You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. I think that matters The commanders have just been better with Marcus Mariota which we been saying for the past few weeks Jalen Carter will still be out I think that impacts how the Eagles can defend against a mobile quarterback And talk about wanting to be in a spot where you fading a team We want to fade the team that just blew somebody out And all of a sudden, people think the Eagles are fixed when we're not quite convinced the Eagles are fixed. So at six and a half, this just feels a little bit inflated. As you noted in sharp calls, wise guys are on this one as well.”
PHI 29, WSH 18 — Eagles beat the Commanders 29-18; Commanders lost by 11, busting the +6.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“show and then actually bet on. Washington at Philadelphia. We talked about this on Tuesday, Saturday night, six and a half point underdogs. The Washington commanders are going to be our Brass Balls Bet of the Week presented by Hard Rock Bet. You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. I think that matters The commanders have just been better with Marcus Mariota which we been saying for the past few weeks Jalen Carter will still be out I think that impacts how the Eagles can defend against a mobile quarterback And talk about wanting to be in a spot where you fading a team We want to fade the team that just blew somebody out And all of a sudden, people think the Eagles are fixed when we're not quite convinced the Eagles are fixed. So at six and a half, this just feels a little bit inflated. As you noted in sharp calls, wise guys are on this one as well. The real wise guys, not the fake wise guys. It's true, though. It feels like an inflated line. I had this model at four. And it's not shocking, though. If I was the general public and didn't have a model or know much about it, why wouldn't I bet the Eagles here, right? They looked incredible. They looked like they got things right. And we've talked about it. They're a team that if they can figure out that offense, why would they not be the number two or number three best team in the NFC? So this is obviously two teams that are going totally different directions. The commanders, like we've said, they're shut down their star quarterback. you know how motivated would they be blah blah blah I think that's why the public is just coming in so heavier I don't know about you but most books I've looked at or talked to it's like 80% to 90% of all the money all the bets are coming on this Eagles team yeah that's why it's so surprising to me it hasn't moved to seven that's clearly sort of resistance coming from the professionals yeah it can be part of it um it's also I think the books too are just like they they're like what we're thinking here is just who are the Eagles to be catching seven against a divisional opponent like this where who are the super bowl champions to be catching seven but i get it like they haven't looked like the super champions at all no it's like it's the they haven't had a horrible season like the chiefs have had but it's been close to it like they've it's could have it could have fallen apart a bunch of different spots here so this is just a bet for the egos to prove it to me right and um you know we always talk about the numbers with hertz there's some real numbers here to fade hertz especially when it comes to this late in the season in December. He is great, usually against the spread to start the year, but then the public keeps betting him, falling more in love with him, and the number goes too far. And we've seen that now through his early career because the Eagles, obviously, every year he's been a starter. He's made the playoffs, right? And he's kind of been in that spot where, you know, not the last two years or not last year, but the year before, they totally fell off. So that's why these numbers are skewed a little bit, his December's numbers, but these ones just popped out to me. So December later hurts, five and seven against the spread. when he faces the NFC East, he's one of five in his career in the month of December against the spread. So we talked about it. He just gets inflated in our division. I mean, Eagles division, historically, it's kind of been a bottom feed in the division, right? They're usually two teams really good, and the other two are just absolutely terrible. And it's been like that for his whole career, these last four or five years for Hurts. So even against bad teams in his division in December, he's struggled. It's been very bizarre. And another stat I really loved was the Eagles were a double-digit favorite last week. Hurts, for some reason, he's horrible at games following being a double-digit favorite. So when he's a double-digit favorite Hurts, he's three and six against the spread in this following game. It just shows they usually blow teams out, live up to it. And the following game, they have a letdown game. So I've seen that time and time again. And on the flip side, Dan Quinn, you know, give him a ton of grief. I just don't think he's that good of a head coach. But as a dog, he's been great, especially covering seven to four against the spread. And this exact spot, three and one in his own division. So, you know, we like Dan Quinn. We like the numbers when he's back in his own division as a dog. It's just when he's a favorite, I really couldn't get over how much overrated he was. So we talked, we knew Washington was coming back down to earth this year. felix they have but they feel like the the public has totally left them for dead yes happened last week they were hammering the giants team like you just said that number didn't budge last week it's happening once again the public is hammering the opposite side of the commander side and it's not budge so for both of us i think we'd feel much better we wake up saturday and this number's five and a half because it's like okay at least some real professional money's coming and we both have the best number but even this gets the seven i'm still gonna back this Washington team come Saturday. All right, Washington commanders, brass balls, better the week.”
PHI 29, WSH 18 — Eagles beat the Commanders 29-18; Commanders lost by 11, busting the +6.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Betting the Giants plus three, what Simon says.”
MIN 16, NYG 13 — Vikings beat the Giants 16-13; Giants lost by exactly 3, pushing the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Minnesota, minus three at the New York Giants. Betting the Giants plus three, what Simon says. I hope everyone is betting because this line is going to move to two and a half because it looks like the money is coming in on the Giants. Again, I don't think there are metrics to make us feel better about this one. It's really about fading a quarterback who, until two weeks ago, people were trying to figure out what their option was going to be next year in Minnesota to replace J.J. McCarthy and how bad they must feel that they don't have Sam Darnold, that they didn't have Daniel Jones, that they no longer had Kirk Cousins. and then the guy beats up on two bad defenses and the commanders and the Cowboys and all of a sudden he's a three-point road favorite. That's what we're fading here and that's why it's Simon Says and that's why we bet it and that's why it'll be in the contest. Yeah, like you just, you nailed it.”
MIN 16, NYG 13 — Vikings beat the Giants 16-13; Giants lost by exactly 3, pushing the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“I can't believe it. Bills minus 10. I am shocked. I know. I'm shocked only because I'm happy about it because I didn't want to bet the Browns. And even if you lose, at least we'll be like, well, at least we lost on Josh Allen. I don't know. Right. No, no. Sanders. I mean, I can't do it. I can't. That's why I said historically this would have been an autoplay, and we haven't done it. And there's something that's holding us back, and I think you just nailed it. That 28-9 stat is crazy. I kind of like the idea of having the Bills as a big favorite on the road against the Browns in the contest for us. It feels very contrarian. Yeah. I mean, it'll be 10-1⁄2, but I wouldn't mind having that discussion Sunday morning. I bet it, as soon as I saw those numbers, it's like, I'll take a position as because hard rock and there's only one other book at the 10. So if you want the 10, unfortunately for you, if you don't have a hard rock, you're probably not going to find it.”
BUF 23, CLE 20 — Bills beat the Browns 23-20; Bills won by only 3, busting the -10 spread (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Bills minus 10.”
BUF 23, CLE 20 — Bills beat the Browns 23-20; Bills won by only 3, busting the -10 spread (ESPN box score).
“thinks the Jags are frauds His own peers in the league do not believe in the Jaguars team So you know interesting number I thought today we have three and a half because I thought the pros would come in heavy on this Denver team It either they been dipping their toes on a little bit on Denver They've been avoiding it. So this number is not budged. So I am confident in the Jaguars team. But for contest play for us, I would have two and a half. It has to be three and a half. Well, the contest, it is three and a half. So I would I'd like that in now. And just in case, because I I'm interested what the pros do for us. I could see this being two and a half by kickoff. I do see professional money coming to the Jaguars team.”
JAX 34, DEN 20 — Jaguars beat the Broncos 34-20; Jaguars covered +3.5 by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“so the las vegas raiders at plus 14 and a half in the contest we got to put them in i don't know if we can't find a fifth one we can do it but it's we're simply betting this because of the trends and the numbers and just i got news for you buddy we're not going to find a fifth one i don't know we might that i have the games i like i'm just lukewarm on them right now because it's just it's such funky lines we just i feel like this is the most threes we've had all season Like there's just six games where just there's hanging threes. And it's like, I just don't know what to do with them. But this game here, like you said, the trends, obviously they love this Raiders team. Like you already gave out that one. They got shut out the previous week before this season. Teams got shut out the week before. Six and 0 against the spread. You know, it's a great lazy stat like we talk about. We love those type of stats. And the team that fits that description this week is the Raiders in Cincinnati. and one team's lines move three points. The Raiders line has moved the other way for three points, right? I think it was 11 or 11 and a half. Now it is 14, 14 and a half. And it's a unique spot, right? This Texans team, like you said, they are a juggernaut. Their last loss was a game we bet them on, right? The game they should have won against Denver and CJ got knocked out of. Since then, they've won six straight. And since CJ has come back, I mean, last week, that was, to me, CJ's best game this season. That looked like CJ from rookie year. just incredibly disciplined downfield throws right on target just in total total unison and um you know the underlying numbers here let dive into it six game win streak for texans teams is exact spot they are 11 and 16 against the spread since 2003 when they are double digit favorites in this exact spot they are 11 against the spread since 2003 When they are double favorites in this exact spot they are 2 against the spread So a very unique rare spot where like Chad just said the numbers, they're telling you, you're supposed to back the Raiders here. And I can't believe we're going to do it. I can't believe I'm agreeing with you, but I bet the Raiders, I've taken the numbers, and it doesn't matter to me if it's Kenny Pickett. I know you look horrible against the Eagles, obviously, last week, But even as bad as he looked, him and Geno Smith, there truly is no difference. Like, really, there is not. So we'll see who the quarterback is, Chad, and maybe that will dictate our decision. But I have no problem locking the center 14 and a half. And if it is Geno and it drops down to 13 or 12, at least we have good value.”
HOU 23, LV 21 — Texans beat the Raiders 23-21; Raiders covered +14.5, losing by only 2 (ESPN box score).
“Go Raiders plus 14 and a half.”
HOU 23, LV 21 — Texans beat the Raiders 23-21; Raiders covered +14.5, losing by only 2 (ESPN box score).
“I bet it with you, the Patriots. I just couldn't stop grabbing the plus three.”
NE 28, BAL 24 — Patriots beat the Ravens 28-24; Patriots covered +3 by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“yeah the one and a half if you can get it that obviously is way better in that type of scenario because say the juice on the one and a half is minus 120 you probably can just take the money line from minus 130 and that's that's probably where you want to be with Dak in this exact matchup because like you said the movement maybe it does scare me because this is a Chargers backdoor type of game but I don't know if the Chargers offense can keep up with this Dallas offense and that's that's my policy here it's like their their defense needed what was a five takeaways against the Eagles to win that game where I think the Eagles may put up 16 on the flip side. The Chiefs, you know, put up 13 points and they were dysfunctional, but they were moving the ball. Like there are ways to move the ball against this Chargers team. I think this might be the exact matchup for this Cowboys team to get right. So since, you know, 2022, Dallas, when they're on their homestead playing against a team that is above 500, Dak 3-0 in this exact spot. So you know once again I trying to find stuff to get off this Cowboys team but it just seems like all the numbers the pros are right right The pros came and have you on this one I didn really understand it I thought this was the Chargers side but the underlying numbers back it up And offensively you know I hate to say they the more desperate team here but the Chargers got their big wins, right? That was an emotional win against the Eagles and a huge emotional win against the Chiefs. You expect them to have a letdown spot against a Dallas team that just got embarrassed in a primetime game. So this feels like another pros versus pros all over the Cowboys team, the public. they will be hammering this Chargers team. So, yeah, I'm with you, Chad. I've come to the other side of this Cowboys team. I'll give you full credit because I just did not see it. I think even you might have even mentioned Sunday night. I totally missed this one, and I'm chasing the number now. All right, well, I'll put it on the list. The last one that I forgot to mention that, like, is still interesting to me”
LAC 34, DAL 17 — Chargers beat the Cowboys 34-17; Cowboys lost outright, busting the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“yeah the one and a half if you can get it that obviously is way better in that type of scenario because say the juice on the one and a half is minus 120 you probably can just take the money line from minus 130 and that's that's probably where you want to be with Dak in this exact matchup because like you said the movement maybe it does scare me because this is a Chargers backdoor type of game but I don't know if the Chargers offense can keep up with this Dallas offense and that's that's my policy here it's like their their defense needed what was a five takeaways against the Eagles to win that game where I think the Eagles may put up 16 on the flip side. The Chiefs, you know, put up 13 points and they were dysfunctional, but they were moving the ball. Like there are ways to move the ball against this Chargers team. I think this might be the exact matchup for this Cowboys team to get right. So since, you know, 2022, Dallas, when they're on their homestead playing against a team that is above 500, Dak 3-0 in this exact spot. So you know once again I trying to find stuff to get off this Cowboys team but it just seems like all the numbers the pros are right right The pros came and have you on this one I didn really understand it I thought this was the Chargers side but the underlying numbers back it up And offensively you know I hate to say they the more desperate team here but the Chargers got their big wins, right? That was an emotional win against the Eagles and a huge emotional win against the Chiefs. You expect them to have a letdown spot against a Dallas team that just got embarrassed in a primetime game. So this feels like another pros versus pros all over the Cowboys team, the public. they will be hammering this Chargers team. So, yeah, I'm with you, Chad. I've come to the other side of this Cowboys team.”
LAC 34, DAL 17 — Chargers beat the Cowboys 34-17; Cowboys lost outright, busting the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I bet the 6 on the Lions team number should be four four and a half”
PIT 29, DET 24 — Steelers beat the Lions 29-24; Lions lost outright, busting the -6 spread (ESPN box score).
“I just want you to be on it It 6 right now in our contest I bet the 6 on the Lions team number should be four four and a half That why my model thinks as well And I think both of us are overreacting that this Lions team they're not as bad as I'm perceiving them to be. They actually are a really good, high-powered offense. I think they're number one and number two in total yards this season, even with Dan Campbell taking over offensively. It's been the defense that's held them back all season. So to me, matchup-wise, as good as Rodgers looked in that last game, I think there are ways for this team to attack them, especially that defensive front to give the Rogers some problems where Miami, they have no real pass rush. And we talk Miami is bad as Miami is defensively coming into the year. That was like the worst secondary in all football. And as much injuries as this Detroit team has had, they still, they play hard for Campbell. They hit hard. They know that they're just going to run tons of zones here. And that's what you expect Rogers to be able to pick apart, but we've seen it. Rogers these last few weeks, he's been pushing the ball downfield. He's actually struggled against certain types of zones this season. And so to me, this feels like it's going to be a game. There's going to be a lot of points. And I don't see the Steelers keeping up with the chat. So I just wanted to bring it up just in case I don't blindside you come Sunday for my love with the team. It's on the list. It's on the list.”
PIT 29, DET 24 — Steelers beat the Lions 29-24; Lions lost outright, busting the -6 spread (ESPN box score).
“Moneyline underdog parlay. Tennessee. Yeah, throw it in. Arizona. Arizona. Okay, yeah, I'll do it. New York. Giants. New England. New England. And got to put my Jags in there. The Jags.”
Parlay busts: Titans ML won (TEN 26, KC 9); Cardinals ML lost (ATL 26, ARI 19); Giants ML lost (MIN 16, NYG 13); Patriots ML won (NE 28, BAL 24); Jaguars ML won (JAX 34, DEN 20) — with two legs losing, the parlay fails (ESPN box scores).
“Simon says Presented by Hard Rock Bet We are on the New York football giants plus three against the Minnesota Vikings”
MIN 16, NYG 13 — Vikings beat the Giants 16-13; Giants lost by exactly 3, pushing the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“games um first of all Sunday night and we went to Baltimore Baltimore is a three point favorite I saying it now Chad Choice presented by Hard Rock Bet It going to be the New England Patriots Are you sure you want to do this Are you willing to make a choice My choice We can't run from where we are. Sharp dudes can just see it. You know what I mean? I'm jumping on the New England Patriots bounce back bandwagon.”
NE 28, BAL 24 — Patriots beat the Ravens 28-24; Patriots covered +3 by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“We got Kansas City minus four and a half.”
LAC 16, KC 13 — Chargers beat the Chiefs 16-13; Chiefs lost outright, busting the -4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“One of the many reasons why we have continued to bet on the [7:06] Buffalo Bills at minus one, minus one and a half,”
BUF 35, NE 31 — Bills beat the Patriots 35-31; Bills covered -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“Detroit at the Los Angeles Rams. Line is currently six. We got it at five and a half in the contest. It's a sneaky. You had to be listening to understand that Simon loved this game on Tuesday at five and a half. Still true.”
LAR 41, DET 34 — Rams beat the Lions 41-34; Rams covered -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“We got Green Bay minus two and a half.”
DEN 34, GB 26 — Broncos beat the Packers 34-26; Packers lost outright, busting the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“All right, let's talk about some underdogs. First one up, Minnesota, five and a half point underdog against Dallas.”
MIN 34, DAL 26 — Vikings beat the Cowboys 34-26; Vikings covered +5.5 by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“push it to the three. You're going to get a ton of money. And like Chad said, a bunch of books have hit the three. But the most interesting one to me is the two or three biggest public books have held at a two and a half and they are taking the most amount of Panthers money. So I'll, I'll stand with the books here. I'll back the saints, but I get why you chose Minnesota”
NO 20, CAR 17 — Saints beat the Panthers 20-17; Saints covered +2.5 by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“We first started talking about this one, I think on Sunday it was at three and a half. By Tuesday it was at four. It's now at five. A lot of other books are five and a half. by the middle of yesterday, I completely came around to your position. I just decided, A, everything you were saying was right. There is going to be extreme weather. The Chargers have so many offensive line issues. So much bad luck is befalling the Chiefs, whether it's bobbled passes, bad calls, all the stuff that went their way for 17 straight close games so i'm with you brother i'm on the chiefs i bet him i bet him i get the line i got was four and a half i did not get the three and a half or the four i got the four and a half because i waited too long but i still went in on it i'm with you i'm with you and i love it let's put it in the contest yeah in our normal circumstances”
LAC 16, KC 13 — LA Chargers beat Kansas City 16-13; Chiefs margin -3 vs line -4.5, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“We first started talking about this one, I think on Sunday it was at three and a half. By Tuesday it was at four. It's now at five. A lot of other books are five and a half. by the middle of yesterday, I completely came around to your position. I just decided, A, everything you were saying was right. There is going to be extreme weather. The Chargers have so many offensive line issues. So much bad luck is befalling the Chiefs, whether it's bobbled passes, bad calls, all the stuff that went their way for 17 straight close games so i'm with you brother i'm on the chiefs i bet him i bet him i get the line i got was four and a half i did not get the three and a half or the four i got the four and a half because i waited too long but i still went in on it i'm with you i'm with you and i love it let's put it in the contest yeah in our normal circumstances we would be all over the charges this is an automatic chargers play this is a chargers line and Justin Herbert as a dog, very profitable. I believe – I'll look through the numbers here, but we kind of blindly have bet him in this exact spot. But this is what we talked about. This is unique. This is a man that only has one hand. Without his offensive line, even the backups got hurt in the Eagles game. They lost, I think, their third string right tackle in the Eagles game. So just a nightmare. But again, I want to give out these numbers just because in the future, when I tell people you just blindly bet Herbert in the spot, it's because he tends to be really great as a dog in the spot. So when the line's above three and a half in his career, 11-2-1 against the spread Herbert, which is really impressive. You think back to what's the matchup with Andy Reid and Harbaugh, Harbaugh. He's 4-0 against the spread when he plays against Andy Reid in his career. So they do have their number, this Chiefs team, but we're talking about a unique spot here in the fact to what we just talked about, right? It's all the injuries to Herbert and this team. And even going back and rewatching the Eagles game, Herbert you know tried to do so much with his legs but even when he couldn you trying to pass the ball downfield his guys just could not get any separation And that really stood out to me The bar receivers were not getting open for him Keenan Allen does the best he can He can get open in a really quick window, but he's not really someone that's going to burn some of his legs. Obviously, he's someone that's much older now. Lad McConkie's been kind of disappointing this season for them. So it feels like a really bad spot for this Chargers team. And you talked a little bit about this Chiefs team. It's got to flip at some point, right? They basically won 17 consecutive one-score games, and now this year they're 1-6, 0-7 against the spread. So it's not the best, Chad. We've been to a little bit of a scary spot, but I do have to trust the fact that we have a good number. It's still under 6. People listening to this can still get under 6, but I think it's a good number. And I just have major questions about this Chargers offense with the injury to Herbert. The man is one-handed, and he's going to be outdoors in the elements. I feel like it's too much to overcome, Chad. So, yeah, I feel gross doing it, but it feels like this is the exact spot we have to take the Chiefs. I don't feel that gross. It's weird.”
LAC 16, KC 13 — LA Chargers beat Kansas City 16-13; Chiefs margin -3 vs line -5, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Like, it's minus six, which I'm still betting the six. But if this was five and a half, Chad, I think we probably could have agreed on this being the pick for the day. But it's not. Yeah, yeah. It's not going to be brass balls. I think we're going to have to do something even brassier and ballsier for brass balls. But we both love the Rams here. We both bet into the Rams. Five and a half. I hope everyone was listening on Tuesday. Got the five and a half. If you can get the six, great. Get the six. You didn't get the best of it. But, you know, it's still a good number.”
LAR 41, DET 34 — LA Rams beat Detroit 41-34; Rams margin +7 vs line -5.5, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“But I just feel like this type of game where they're going to try to take away Gibbs, make Goff beat him downfield, and we've seen it. Goff has not done well with pressure in his face, and it's the exact type of game. They'll get that. So, yeah, I honestly wanted to make this our bet, but unfortunately it's moved too much. Like, it's minus six, which I'm still betting the six. But if this was five and a half, Chad, I think we probably could have agreed on this being the pick for the day. But it's not. Yeah, yeah.”
LAR 41, DET 34 — LA Rams beat Detroit 41-34; Rams margin +7 vs line -6, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“carolina at the new orleans saints new orleans saints plus two and a half this was simon says there were some threes available right after we got off the air on tuesday for much of tuesday there were some threes there it's back down to two and a half i don't i don't think it's gonna last um so i mean i don't think the threes will i think it could get back to three but i don't think the threes are gonna last uh we hate betting against the panthers we hate it especially when they got a chance to take control of the nfc south the darlings the team that we love for years but we're both on the saints here yeah i think i think threes will pop just because the books they're getting so much panthers money i think they're going to need some saints money”
NO 20, CAR 17 — New Orleans beat Carolina 20-17; Saints margin +3 vs line +2.5, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“carolina at the new orleans saints new orleans saints plus two and a half this was simon says there were some threes available right after we got off the air on tuesday for much of tuesday there were some threes there it's back down to two and a half i don't i don't think it's gonna last um so i mean i don't think the threes will i think it could get back to three but i don't think the threes are gonna last uh we hate betting against the panthers we hate it especially when they got a chance to take control of the nfc south the darlings the team that we love for years but we're both on the saints here yeah i think i think threes will pop just because the books they're getting so much panthers money i think they're going to need some saints money and the only way they're going to get is by popping that three right not people are going to force and take the two and a half until sunday when they really need to and it's last when i think throughout the week you should see some threes pop up and you know it's just because who's betting the saints right it's it's kind of a spot you don't really want to be back then like from the general public's perspective because they just want a really tough divisional game now coming home you know anybody can look at these numbers but i was alarmed when the buddy sent me these numbers about the saints team and i i gave you the stat right there last week on the road individual as an underdog they're eight no now nine and oh on the road god their home stats are terrible chat i cannot believe how bad these stats are since 2020 is an underdog at home the saints four and 17 straight up five and 16 against the spread that's i mean that's the worst mark in the nfl of any team right but simon what is bryce young on the road as a as a favorite yeah he never covered it doesn exist i just i just that was just a simple saying how bad they been So I love this one Like you just said it two it's two immovable objects meeting and something's got to give, right? So you said at Bryce Young in his early career, he's only been a favorite so many times and, you know, 11 times he's been a straight up favorite. He is not covered or won any of those games. He's 0 and 11. So you're right. It's a unique spot.”
NO 20, CAR 17 — New Orleans beat Carolina 20-17; Saints margin +3 vs line +2.5, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“Green Bay at Denver. This was Chad's choice. The Green Bay Packers minus two. I think that the Packers, you and I had been struggling with the Packers all year because all of the advanced metrics keep saying how great they are. But they hadn't seemed dominant on the field, right? They were 9-3-1 heading into that Bears game. And what I saw in that Bears game was just a complete team. Now, the Bears were able to run the ball in the second half, but how they were able to cover overall and the way Jordan Love was able to respond to pressure, the fact they've gotten so many of their receivers back. I love this roster. I love the speed in their defense. I love the way Jordan Love throws against man coverage, which is what the Broncos are going to play. They're going to go against single high coverage, which is what Jordan Love loves to throw against. Everything about this matchup to me, I feel like I'm getting about a point of value. I think that the Packers should be three-point favorites because I think the ultimate decision here, coaching is even, defense probably even. I think the difference is the quarterback, and that's worth a lot to me. Give me the Green Bay Packers. Two points. Favorites. Yeah, we both love the Packers.”
DEN 34, GB 26 — Denver beat Green Bay 34-26; Packers margin -8 vs line -2, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Everything about this matchup to me, I feel like I'm getting about a point of value. I think that the Packers should be three-point favorites because I think the ultimate decision here, coaching is even, defense probably even. I think the difference is the quarterback, and that's worth a lot to me. Give me the Green Bay Packers. Two points. Favorites. Yeah, we both love the Packers. a game that no matter what, even if it was two and a half, I'd be all over it. I'm not going to let the hook scare me off. Just think, matchup-wise, they're the better team. They should probably be minus three. Tons of respect by the professionals on this Broncos team, for good reason. They're really well-coached. They've really grinded out a lot of these games. We've talked about Bo Nix. As much as he's regressed in some people's eyes this year, he's been incredible in these fourth quarters, leading his team to comeback wins. It's just been really impressive. I gave out that amazing stat by Evan Abrams. It's just a unique spot. This is another team just like the Patriots. They've won 10 straight games, the Broncos, and now they are home underdogs. So since 2005, eight teams have closed an underdog in this exact spot. Two, five and one against the spread, these teams. So it lets you know right there, the Broncos, this is not a good spot. You might think it is. You're getting a home dog here. you're fired up, but long-term, it's just a loser. The books are kind of telling you, right? The professionals are telling you here, which team is the better team. They just threw out the records, right? It matters what happens on the field. And you've seen it this year, in my opinion, the NFC to me is just a better conference than the AFC. Like the AFC, some of these teams have so many more weaknesses than the NFC. And we talked, there's something missing with this Green Bay team. I don't know if the Broncos are the type of team that can exploit those type of scenarios. So I really do love them here. you know if it gets the three I get if you have some type of hesitation there but hopefully you can get the two the minus two and a half there should be up there still by Sunday I just think professional money anytime Broncos touch a three they'll hit it so I'm hoping people won't be scared off by this one I really love the Packers in this spot we're total agreement here uh there's”
DEN 34, GB 26 — Denver beat Green Bay 34-26; Packers margin -8 vs line -2, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“The Minnesota Vikings visiting the Dallas Cowboys. Are you with me? Are you with me on the Minnesota Vikings? Love the Vikings. Minnesota Vikings. Should we make it our Brass Balls presented by Hard Rock Bet? Let's do it. Definitely a ballsy bet. All right. Minnesota Vikings plus six at Hard Rock Bet against the Dallas Cowboys. That is our Brass Balls bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Bet. You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. Forget about J.J. McCarthy for a second. The Vikings defense has been playing lights out the past few weeks, just getting better and better and better. And to me what they can do to potentially neutralize Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys offense versus what the Cowboys can do to defend against anything that the Vikings are going to do is so much greater that I have to believe in what I seen when Kevin O can just tell his quarterback and put him in a halfway decent position against a defense that is as bad as the one they just played in Washington. So I'm buying the Minnesota Vikings.”
MIN 34, DAL 26 — Minnesota beat Dallas 34-26; Vikings margin +8 vs line +6, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“last game on the board that I want to talk about I think should be our Brass Balls bet of the week. Let's do it. The Minnesota Vikings visiting the Dallas Cowboys. Are you with me? Are you with me on the Minnesota Vikings? Love the Vikings. Minnesota Vikings. Should we make it our Brass Balls presented by Hard Rock Bet? Let's do it. Definitely a ballsy bet. All right. Minnesota Vikings plus six at Hard Rock Bet against the Dallas Cowboys. That is our Brass Balls bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Bet.”
MIN 34, DAL 26 — Minnesota beat Dallas 34-26; Vikings margin +8 vs line +6, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“Pittsburgh, Miami. Where were you at? You were on Miami, right? Or were you on Miami? I was on Miami plus three and a half on Tuesday. That to me does feel like the sharp side, the three and a half. But if you're like me and you just don't want to throw out the spread, you want to go strict money line, which is what I want to do here. Some amazing stats about the Steelers money line in this exact opportunity. since 1992 on Monday night football games the Steelers are 22 and 1 straight up their only losses in 2020 against the Commanders I don't know if you remember 2020 there were no stands in the stands yeah that's throw it out they are just unbelievable at home on Monday night if you throw that one out they're 22 and 0 straight up on Monday night football at home since 1992 in his career Aaron Rodgers 11 and 2 straight up on Monday night football so there's just a lot of trends at point to a liking it and let's get to all the two of stats to outdoors in the cold two and seven straight up one and eight against the spread in his career when it's under 40 degrees he's oh and five straight up one and four against the spread losing those games by 19 points per game so my god we know two is horrible in the cold i had no idea the stats were that bad so what chad set can be true right this miami team have been hiding to it for a couple weeks Can they just lean into the run and get away with it? Possibly. But my God, do all those stats point to them just laying a total egg here in Miami, especially coming off a divisional win on the road now traveling to Pittsburgh. It seems like the perfect spot to fade this team. So I'm still going to be dug in. Steelers minus three. I'll still take it. But I could not believe those Monday night stats for this Pittsburgh team historically.”
PIT 28, MIA 15 — Pittsburgh beat Miami 28-15 on Monday night; Steelers moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“I get where you're coming from. Let me be the bigger scumbag here. Give me the Raiders plus four 90. I knew you were going to say that. I got to do it again. This, I think they're going to They should blow out this Raiders team, but we've seen in football when teams collapse under their own weight, this tends to happen. So just at that number, I have to bet it. That's too big for the- You really just want the conversation about Jalen Hurst to continue? Not at all. money off the suffering that's the key here uh favorite by the way the only of the big numbers”
PHI 31, LV 0 — Philadelphia shut out Las Vegas 31-0; Raiders moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“So, yeah, this Bucs line, it's fishy. I honestly can't get why it's going the other way because they might be getting back, Worth and Mike Evans, and that's a huge deal to this offense. So I'll take an early position here, especially now at the four at Hard Rock. I'll grab them on this Bucs side on the Thursday night home game.”
ATL 29, TB 28 — Atlanta beat Tampa Bay 29-28 on Thursday night; Buccaneers margin -1 vs line -4, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Right now, one book, one of the more public books, has already hit 10. So that's why, like, people, I think you might be able to be patient here. Yeah. I think you might be able to get to the 10s here on Cardinals. And at that number, I got no issue, no issue taking this Cardinals team. So I'm already dreading it. I already can see our future come Sunday, 10 and a half in contest. Can't avoid that because we've just seen that Jacoby Brissett, his offense, you know, even against good defense, he tends to move the ball. And when, you know, he's playing dead for two or three quarters, he does eventually come to live for two or three drives and moves the ball. So it's a tough, tough, tough bet, Chad, where it's like I can't avoid it. I knew I was going to like it as soon as I saw it. And the fact that it's moved so much, once it hits that 10 number like it is right now, as soon as we get off this call, I'm going to go hammer that number.”
HOU 40, ARI 20 — Houston beat Arizona 40-20; Cardinals margin -20 vs line +10, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“on the Rams yeah I like it a lot again I don't want to mush it what Simon says but this is I feel like this is a very nice number in a nice spot so like I said Hard Rock it's still five here in Jersey shop around people you might be able to still get a five we can hear this but I just see this getting to six by the time most people hear this unfortunately I am going to unload on the Rams. I don't know about that. Betting it all. Yeah. On the Los Angeles Rams.”
LAR 41, DET 34 — LA Rams beat Detroit 41-34; Rams margin +7 vs line -5, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“So I want to get the Saints now at two and a half just in case the pros do come in and hit this down”
NO 20, CAR 17 — New Orleans beat Carolina 20-17; Saints margin +3 vs line +2.5, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“Green Bay at Denver. Denver is a two point home underdog. It's been bouncing one and a half and two and a half. Every time it gets to two and a half, somebody buys the Broncos. And every time it gets to one and a half, somebody's buying the Packers. And that's what we're seeing in the splits. I'm going to make this one Chad's choice and I'm taking the Green Bay Packers are you sure you want to do this?”
DEN 34, GB 26 — Denver beat Green Bay 34-26; Packers margin -8 vs line -2, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Jacksonville on the money line. I didn't even bother with the spread. There might be massive”
JAX 36, IND 19 — Jacksonville Jaguars beat Indianapolis 36-19; moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“We're at Jacksonville plus two and a half.”
JAX 36, IND 19 — Jacksonville won outright 36-19; Jaguars +2.5 covers easily (ESPN box score).
“really has a difference of half a point between these two guys so it's if we believe in a chad we're simply betting a good number which hard rock is right now minus three and a half because this number is going to four and a half forward a lot of books and we're banking on this defense in this weather at home it just feels like a unique spot so i'm still in on it i don't know if you're if you want to join me like i've joked about it i i am probably over 100 on this tennessee team these last two years but i just feel like this is a unique spot back on this browns team we have no rhythm when it comes to the tennessee titans none zero we we we cannot catch the falling knife on this team but but we have a lot of rhythm with the browns yeah and so i've i'm still on it i've dead into it i'm not walking away from it let's just commit to it I love what I didn't have three and a half. What did I have a number of moves? Yeah, let's own it.”
TEN 31, CLE 29 — Tennessee beat Cleveland 31-29; Browns margin -2 vs line -3.5, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“really has a difference of half a point between these two guys so it's if we believe in a chad we're simply betting a good number which hard rock is right now minus three and a half because this number is going to four and a half forward a lot of books and we're banking on this defense in this weather at home it just feels like a unique spot so i'm still in on it i don't know if you're if you want to join me like i've joked about it i i am probably over 100 on this tennessee team these last two years but i just feel like this is a unique spot back on this browns team we have no rhythm when it comes to the tennessee titans none zero we we we cannot catch the falling knife on this team but but we have a lot of rhythm with the browns yeah and so i've i'm still on it i've dead into it i'm not walking away from it let's just commit to it I love what I didn't have three and a half.”
TEN 31, CLE 29 — Tennessee beat Cleveland 31-29; Browns margin -2 vs line -3.5, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Miami at the New York Jets. This was Chad's choice to two and a half in the contest. Not the best number because it's been three for much of the week. I still love it. I bet the Jets, I bet the Jets at three. I bet the Jets at three on Wednesday. I bet the Jets at three I think again on Thursday I bet the Jets money line I all in on the Jets here And maybe I making a mistake Maybe I sort of over enthusiastic But I just don see”
MIA 34, NYJ 10 — Miami beat the Jets 34-10; Jets margin -24 vs line +3, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“I still love it. I bet the Jets, I bet the Jets at three. I bet the Jets at three on Wednesday. I bet the Jets at three I think again on Thursday I bet the Jets money line I all in on the Jets here And maybe I making a mistake Maybe I sort of over enthusiastic But I just don see how a Jets team that was a two and a half point underdog on the road against the Dolphins in week”
MIA 34, NYJ 10 — Jets lost 10-34 to Miami; moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“The line is currently eight and a half. The Saints are eight and a half point underdogs. Simon this is going to be our rock and a hard place hard rock bet of the week I want to rock You talked about the Saints a bunch on Thursday It took me a minute to come around I am on the Saints now. I bet the Saints at plus eight and a half.”
NO 24, TB 20 — New Orleans beat Tampa Bay 24-20; Saints margin +4 vs line +8.5, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“by the saints if you go back and watch it but we do give some grace that was when we think baker had an injury he didn disclose and he was fighting through and they had a bunch of injuries injuries obviously to the offense No Godwin no Mike Evans no Bucky Irving So yeah this matchup for me it really just backing about the public just moving this number too much and overrating this Bucs team that, yes, they're going to be better now. They have a lot of their guys back. But that defense, there ain't no guy coming off the bench that's going to save this defense for this Bucs team. They have been terrible against the run, and they've really struggled this season with teams that can push the ball downfield, which as much crap we'd like to give Shuck, he's actually been pretty good pushing the ball downfield consistently. So, yeah, we both love this number, and really it's about the line. Plus 8.5 at every book. I can't avoid it.”
NO 24, TB 20 — New Orleans beat Tampa Bay 24-20; Saints margin +4 vs line +8.5, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“I grabbed Houston at four and a half.”
HOU 20, KC 10 — Houston beat Kansas City 20-10; Texans margin +10 vs line +4.5, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“We loved the Rams at seven and a half, and we bet it at seven and a half. It's at nine and a half because there's a bunch of injuries for the Cardinals. why not the Rams? Nine and a half right now. Terrible number. But I think if they win, there's going to be a blowout. All right. I can be talked into it. I'm heavily invested in the Rams. I'll do that.”
LAR 45, ARI 17 — LA Rams beat Arizona 45-17; Rams margin +28 vs line -9.5, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“What do you think of Tampa Bay as a five and a half point favorite at home against Atlanta right now? I love it but I don't get why the number is so short like it's other the pros just keep betting this Atlanta team they keep acting Kirk Cousins it's very bizarre so I thought this would be seven seven and a half like it just Falcons with Shuck are no worse than this Atlanta team with Kirk Cousins So and no Drake London once again So I don know It I hit this number early but if Drake London gets cleared maybe this drops down more and I'll take a larger position. But this is like one of the first lines I hit when it opened. I just – anything under seven I'm going to hammer against this Atlanta team. They're just so bad. Yeah, I think without Drake London, they really can't function. We saw it today. It's why we were talking about do we want to take Atlanta seven and a half. You were on Seattle. I liked Atlanta, but only if they had Drake London. So that's why it was sort of a pass for us. The wise guys phenomenally were all over Atlanta this week. They loved them. They loved them this week. All right. So you hit the Bucs. Nothing crazy. I just took a little position on them.”
ATL 29, TB 28 — Atlanta beat Tampa Bay 29-28 on Thursday night; Buccaneers margin -1 vs line -5.5, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm still on Washington. I still like them as a dog, especially the fact that it's up two and a half in a lot of books right now.”
MIN 31, WSH 0 — Vikings shut out Commanders 31-0 in Week 14; Washington lost by 31, margin -31 vs the +2.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“And this line did get to plus two for a second. And now it's been back down to one and a half. This is like clearly the line of demarcation for the wise guys is too. I feel like you and I have probably come around and are going to be betting the Jags because I'm I'm I'm worried about Daniel Jones. That's to me the issue.”
JAX 36, IND 19 — Jaguars beat Colts 36-19 in Week 14; Jacksonville won by 17, margin +17 vs the +1.5 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“Miami at the New York Jets. The line at Hard Rock is two and a half. Everywhere else, it's three. So I would recommend getting the three. I made this chat's choice when it was the Jets two and a half on Tuesday. And that seemed to be the only 24 hour window where this wasn't three because it was at three sunday into monday it's been three since wednesday morning i bet it at three i bet it again at three um so i'm the dolphins are getting all the bets on this one they're the”
MIA 34, NYJ 10 — Dolphins beat Jets 34-10 in Week 14; New York lost by 24, margin -24 vs the +3 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“my model has it right at this so my model has it too you know I think we're getting a good number on the Jets at two and a half especially at three but I get why there's just not a ton of love from most professionals I've talked to where they're playing the Jets but it's not like they're like no you have to bet this this is exact spot you want to back this Jets team I feel like they have the same mentality as I do is like man we got away one last week really got to go back to this well and hammer this one, but we just, we love, both of us love this matchup. It's just this Miami's defense is so bad. Taylor's going to be able to move the ball against him. Can they get stops against Tua after, you know, last week Tua had a terrible game. Historically, when you dive into his trends, he tends to bounce back after really bad games. Every time he, him and McDaniels, it's just that combo. You know, any game he goes without throwing a touchdown in the following game, he averages 2.3 touchdowns per game. So it's just, again, lazy stat, but it just shows he tends to bounce back after struggling the game before. So just to be something weary of, but this is another game that if we wake up Sunday, Chad, and it is 25 degrees, a little bit of rain, kind of windy out, I will have to put this one up. There's any type of winter elements in this game, but if it's a perfect sunny day, maybe I'll be able to talk us out of it and lie to myself being like, nah, don't go too hard here on this Jets team. But I love the plus three, and you do as well, so it's going to be hard to avoid it. Yeah, I agree with you.”
MIA 34, NYJ 10 — Dolphins beat Jets 34-10 in Week 14; New York lost by 24, margin -24 vs the +3 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“So I really do like this Browns game. It's another game just like the Jets one where I know it's probably an overreaction on my part to it, but I just think the Lions move too much. I don't think the Jets should be plus three. I don't think the Browns here should be minus three and a half. It just feels like too much of an overreaction by a lot of these professionals. So maybe you'll help us talk us out. I've become a Sunday chat, but as you're sitting right now, the Browns are quickly becoming one of my bigger bets. I've taken a pretty large position on the minus three and a half. I just think it's a unique spot with this Browns defense, Jim Schwartz at home against a rookie on the road in the elements. I got to take the Browns here.”
TEN 31, CLE 29 — Titans beat Browns 31-29 in Week 14; Cleveland lost outright by 2, margin -2 vs the -3.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“So I really do like this Browns game. It's another game just like the Jets one where I know it's probably an overreaction on my part to it, but I just think the Lions move too much. I don't think the Jets should be plus three. I don't think the Browns here should be minus three and a half. It just feels like too much of an overreaction by a lot of these professionals.”
TEN 31, CLE 29 — Titans beat Browns 31-29 in Week 14; Cleveland lost outright by 2, margin -2 vs the -3.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to hold my line here. Back to Seahawks team on the road. The numbers move too much. Minus seven. I got to take the Seahawks.”
SEA 37, ATL 9 — Seahawks beat Falcons 37-9 in Week 14; Seattle won by 28, margin +28 vs the -7 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“We've made the very hard decision to back the Baltimore Ravens at minus five and a half.”
PIT 27, BAL 22 — Steelers beat Ravens 27-22 in Week 14; Baltimore lost outright by 5, margin -5 vs the -5.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“[48:19] Minus five and a half point favorites. [48:21] against their division rivals. [48:23] This is going to be our Brass Balls Bet of the Week [48:28] presented by Hard Rock Bet. [48:32] You know what it takes? [48:33] It takes brass balls. [48:37] We've made the very hard decision [48:39] to back the Baltimore Ravens at minus five and a half.”
PIT 27, BAL 22 — Steelers beat Ravens 27-22 in Week 14; Baltimore lost outright by 5, margin -5 vs the -5.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“we are on the same side, the Los Angeles Rams, minus 7.5 versus the Arizona Cardinals. We know we're going against the wise guys here. we're basically back in we're going against the big home dog that has lost seven games by four points or less because they've also lost multiple games in the division by three touchdowns and the Rams are coming off their worst game of the year where they were on the road as 10.5 point favorites and lost outright I'm okay back in the Rams here I'm okay back in Sean McVay here I like this defense to give pressure against Jacoby Brissett. I'm perfectly fine with our position.”
ARI 17, LAR 45 — Rams beat Cardinals 45-17 in Week 14; Los Angeles won by 28, margin +28 vs the -7.5 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“He's absolutely owned Arizona McVay as a head coach. He just has their number in matchup scheme wise. He does really well against them. So not going to let the big number scare us off, Chad. Minus seven and a half. I'm going to take down this Rams team.”
ARI 17, LAR 45 — Rams beat Cardinals 45-17 in Week 14; Los Angeles won by 28, margin +28 vs the -7.5 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“Kansas City's still at minus three, minus 120 at hard rock bet. Mostly three and a halves elsewhere. As I just said, if the Chiefs gone the way of the Lions, is it time to get off them this year? Is there still magic in the number three? Can they break the trend of losing all these close games? Will there be regression back to the mean in a positive way for the Kansas City Chiefs? This game has massive, massive playoff implications for both teams. It is the tipping point fulcrum moment for these teams in the season. The Texans' defense is awesome. But I'm always going to be loathe to bet against Patrick Mahomes at home as a short favorite in a must-have scenario. scenario That is one that I that is a bridge too far I can walk away I can be the one who betting against someone who might go down as the greatest quarterback ever and is still in his prime Yeah If you want to join the public and the professionals there on the Texas like Chad talked about it it really about the number right? The chief team isn't good enough to be favored minus three and a half, which is what I think a lot of pros in the public are taking that position on, which I totally get. We're talking minus three here at hard rock, which hopefully in our contest, God bless hard rock. They'll give us two and a half yeah because that will be an automatic play in my opinion on this chief team because that to me would be too much a reaction and this is me simon guy who's been fading this chiefs team non-stop since that bills game i think you know i took a position against them with denver they were minus four favorite they lost outright took a position against them against the colts like they were minus four and a half they closed favorite they won by three took a position against them with the dallas cowboys minus half uh plus three and a half on dallas they lost outright to Dallas. So we've seen these last three games, it all comes down to last position. Like Chad said, it's eventually got to go the other way, right? This Chiefs, mathematically, they can't keep losing these one-score games, right? And we've seen Mahomes tend to excel that this year it just not has been that way, right? When they get in these close games, it's either he's not had the ball in his hands and the other team's just eating the clock up, or he goes in there and it's just not been Mahomes-like, right? He's made the mistakes and not brought his team back from depth. So I love how desperate this Chiefs team is going to be. But on the flip side, I get people's position. Texans are just as desperate. They know they're playing for the division, their own playoff lives. So I get why people are taking their position on this Texans team. But I've wanted to be on the Chiefs team all week. I wanted to be patient and let the number get to a position where I feel comfortable betting it. It's at that spot. I'm going to take the minus three and pray the pros keep coming on Texas.”
HOU 20, KC 10 — Texans beat Chiefs 20-10 in Week 14; Kansas City lost outright by 10, margin -10 vs the -3 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“give me the saints plus eight and a half”
TB 20, NO 24 — Saints beat Buccaneers 24-20 in Week 14; New Orleans won by 4, margin +4 vs the +8.5 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“report is come today all right underdog money line parlay my dog likes your dog your dog likes my dog who do we want to do this week i would say jaguars yeah jets jets and then let's do uh for the third one let's do washington”
JAX 36-19 (win); MIA 34-10 (loss for NYJ); MIN 31-0 (loss for WSH) — 3-team underdog ML parlay busts: Jaguars beat Colts 36-19 (won), Dolphins beat Jets 34-10 (Jets lost), Vikings beat Commanders 31-0 (Commanders lost) (ESPN box scores); two legs lost so the parlay fails.
“It's going to be the Washington Commanders at plus one.”
MIN 31, WSH 0 — Vikings shut out Commanders 31-0 in Week 14; Washington lost by 31, margin -31 vs the +1 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“when Simon, we've got Miami visiting the New York Jets and the New York Jets are two and a half point underdogs. And we could go with Tyrod Taylor. In fact, Chad's choice presented by Hard Rock Bet is going to be the New York J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets at home is two and a half point underdogs against the Miami Dolphins. Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice. My choice. We can't run from where we are. Sharp dudes can just see it. You know what I mean? I did bet the Jets a plus three. We talked about it on Sunday. So the line was moving literally during our show. We said live, if you want to get the Jets, get them right now at plus three. I'll still bet them at two and a half just because I think they're the right side here.”
MIA 34, NYJ 10 — Dolphins beat Jets 34-10 in Week 14; New York lost by 24, margin -24 vs the +2.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“I did take a piece of the Texans at plus three just because why not?”
HOU 20, IND 16 — Texans beat Colts 20-16; Houston won outright, margin +4 vs the +3 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“I wonder if this lag has something to do with it San Francisco at Cleveland Cleveland plus five and a half This was Chad choice It moved as low as four and a half before bouncing back up Dude I not going to lie to you. I got Cleveland at six and a half. I liked him at six. I made him Chad's choice at five and a half.”
SF 26, CLE 8 — 49ers beat Browns 26-8; Cleveland lost by 18, margin -18 vs the +5.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“I have bet into the Browns. I have bet into the Browns money line.”
SF 26, CLE 8 — 49ers beat Browns 26-8; Cleveland lost outright, moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“All week we said, this is getting a three, this is getting a three, this is getting a three. It finally popped a three yesterday on Saturday. I've betted a two and a half. I've betted a three. I've bet the Jets money line, maybe I'm too over ambitious in my beliefs because I'm not backing Kirk Cousins on the road after a so-so performance without Drake London again and the Jets defense is effective at stopping the run and that's going to be the Falcon strength here so give me the Jets plus three rah rah J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets, Jets.”
NYJ 27, ATL 24 — Jets beat Falcons 27-24; New York won outright, margin +3 vs the +3 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“I've betted a two and a half. I've betted a three. I've bet the Jets money line”
NYJ 27, ATL 24 — Jets beat Falcons 27-24; New York won outright, moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“I'm with you. I'm definitely not as confident. There's other dogs I like more this week, honestly, now that we're here on Sunday. I still like the Jets, still bet them. But it's going to be a tough choice to make, Chad, because they're two and a half. They're three and a half for our contest. I would have happily put them in. But at 2.5, I don't know how much I love it because I really honestly always say, with this Jets team, I need every point. Yes. And it's really been true. Like last week, I think they were 13.5 or 14. The spread literally landed on three. So they're the type of team they play up to that number. You do need the best number you can possibly get with this Jets team. And at 2.5 for our contest, I bet it at 2.5, so it's like I do believe in it. But I don't know if it's one of my five favorite bets of this week, I'll be honest with you.”
NYJ 27, ATL 24 — Jets beat Falcons 27-24; New York won outright, margin +3 vs the +2.5 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“No, again, this is following really respected money and talking to guys. This would have definitely been on sharp calls. is a very sharp side this titans team especially if you can get the six and a half now i'm looking now i'm assuming most people won't be able to the best i'm seeing um is six and yeah like hard rock they're down at six now so it just seems like the professionals have hit it it's the best you might be able to get is six um this really is a little bit what you talked about right they've been backdooring teams but we talk all the time when teams backdoor consistently it's yeah it's a lot of luck, but also just shows how the market continues to undervalue them, right? They keep hitting that certain number. And it's not like they're covering by a ton, right? Like you just said, they're backdooring by either half a point or a point. So the books have been really sharp on it. The professionals have been all over. And like we said, we keep missing it. This is, we talked around the week, this is either Tennessee or nothing at all for either of us. I still like Tennessee, still like the number.”
JAX 25, TEN 3 — Jaguars beat Titans 25-3; Tennessee lost by 22, margin -22 vs the +6 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to trust the pros here and back that number of three with the Steelers team.”
BUF 26, PIT 7 — Bills beat Steelers 26-7; Pittsburgh lost by 19, margin -19 vs the +3 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“it's going to be our rock in a hard place hard rock bet of the week the new york football giants they are seven point underdogs at hard rock at the new england patriots on monday night they are seven and a half in a lot of places i believe simon and i have both bet into the seven and a half i'm speaking for you uh but we did like it a lot on tuesday i did bet it at seven and a half.”
NE 33, NYG 15 — Patriots beat Giants 33-15 on Monday Night Football; New York lost by 18, margin -18 vs the +7.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“we put a little on the Giants money line because this is the exact type of game that could get stolen from this Patriots team”
NE 33, NYG 15 — Patriots beat Giants 33-15 on Monday Night Football; New York lost outright, moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I took a large position on the two and a half on Tampa, hoping it was going to be Baker. It is Baker now, and now they're minus three and a half.”
TB 20, ARI 17 — Buccaneers beat Cardinals 20-17; Tampa Bay won by 3, margin +3 vs the -2.5 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“Pittsburgh plus three, Giants seven and a half, Commanders plus six and a half. [31:29] Like I've really I've loaded up on all these late primetime games today.”
DEN 27, WSH 26 — Broncos beat Commanders 27-26 in OT; Washington lost by 1, margin -1 vs the +6.5 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“Well speaking of dogs I made a list of the Moneyline Underdog Parlay and I was finding more games where I feel I can see victory for the dogs than I can for the favorites On my list I have Pittsburgh I have Cleveland I have the jets I have Houston. And then I put Tennessee, uh, just because I have such a bias against the Jags. No, anyone, anyone you think I should exclude anyone we should add. No. And like, I've already, I bet that I, um, got lucky. I made the bet. Uh, We gave out on Cincy. I had them thrown in with a couple of their teams, just long shot odds, a couple of 19-to-1s, 20-to-1 bets. I have a couple of Cincy, a couple of Cleveland money lines together. Yeah, it's just I think we're both on the same page. We think it's going to be a little bit of a wonky week. We just see there being some upsets this week. And obviously, if we had known there was going to be three dogs winning outright on Thanksgiving, would have been a happy amen. And I had one contest I was left, and everyone knows it. It's a really big survivor pool. You have to make a Thanksgiving pick. And just like every other idiot in the world, we've been saving the Ravens for that game. And it looks like the smartest guys where the people don't pay attention, just pick every weekend. The people that just had to roll with the dogs on the Thanksgiving game, Cincy, Cowboys, and yeah, I got knocked out on the Ravens. So people can tell I'm just – I just think this is a dogs week. I'm really heavy into the dogs this week. So I love this round, Robin.”
PIT 7-26 (loss); CLE 8-26 (loss); NYJ 27-24 (win); HOU 20-16 (win); TEN 3-25 (loss) — Underdog ML round robin busts: Steelers lost to Bills 7-26, Browns lost to 49ers 8-26, Jets beat Falcons 27-24, Texans beat Colts 20-16, Titans lost to Jaguars 3-25 (ESPN box scores); three legs lost so the parlay fails.
“i mean are we supposed to go back and take the jets again at plus 30 yes i mean that's insane i immediately put that down we might have like a northeastern crazy snowstorm up here in the northeast when this game is happening so we're getting two outdoors potentially in the weather let's grab that early plus three in case that is true and this number moves a ton um”
MIA 34, NYJ 10 — Dolphins beat Jets 34-10 in Week 14; New York lost by 24, margin -24 vs the +3 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“see it moving colts they're minus one and a half i'm worried it might flip because i just don't know if if jones got more banged up today and they're going to sit him out this could move i'm going to roll the dice on the early risk and just take it now in case he is all okay to go”
JAX 36, IND 19 — Jaguars beat Colts 36-19 in Week 14; Indianapolis lost outright by 17, margin -17 vs the -1.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“i think you commanders tonight up to six and a half i like your early read i'll grab that plus one and a half now”
MIN 31, WSH 0 — Vikings shut out Commanders 31-0 in Week 14; Washington lost by 31, margin -31 vs the +1.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“And they're one and a half point underdogs right now i bet it but i i'm i feel bad because i'm super biased i already talked about i'm heavy into the commanders tonight um you know i put them another contest them in uh it was one of my five favorite bets and um these last two games i'm really big on them tonight commanders and the giants and i think i talked about dr nick gave it out they're both huge luck discrepancies so uh should be the type of game where the bounces should go their way”
MIN 31, WSH 0 — Vikings shut out Commanders 31-0 in Week 14; Washington lost by 31, margin -31 vs the +1.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“Betting the Cincinnati Bengals as seven-point underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving Day when Joe Burrow is coming back to play. So let's do it. We haven't gotten official word that Joe Burrow is back, but all indications are that Joe Burrow is coming back. And this line has moved from seven and a half down to seven. Plus, Jamar Chase will be back. Plus, Chase Brown, who, Simon, kudos to you, all flowers. Early in the year, you talked about how Chase Brown was a guy that you thought had a chance to really have an impact and potentially be a team. Huge rushing number guy this year. And the last five games, he's proving it. Like the only time he's gone fewer than 70 yards in the past five games was it in that shootout with the Bears that the Bengals lost 47-42. To me, seven is the number you give this game when Lamar is at full strength and this Ravens defense is at peak performance. But if you even look at the game last week against the Jets, they won 23 10 they covered some of the numbers but that was not a dominant performance they still look like they are struggling week after week after week give me the bangles plus seven”
32-14 — Bengals beat Ravens 32-14 on Thanksgiving; Cincinnati won by 18, covering the +7 line (ESPN box score).
“Yeah this is my Simon Says but give me the Eagles minus six and a half at Hard Rock”
24-15 — Bears beat Eagles 24-15 on Black Friday; Philadelphia lost outright by 9, busting the -6.5 line (ESPN box score).
“i was like okay the pros will come in on it i did not see a move in a point because like you said i mean hard rock's at four but it's four and a half a lot of books so yeah that was shocking to me yeah it's it's tempting they're begging us now to come on the texans but yeah i'm gonna hold firm like this match with this colts team offensively and um we saw a little bit last week i talked about it i think the fact they got ward back defensively him and sauce now is their one and two corners that to me was a big deal like they did shut down that passing game for a long time in that chiefs game eventually mahomes he did the mahomes thing where he scrambles around in circles and eventually guys get open is cj gonna be doing that his first game back after a concussion i don't know i see him playing a little timid here so i definitely like this number on this colts team”
20-16 — Texans beat Colts 20-16; Indianapolis lost outright by 4, busting the -4 line (ESPN box score).
“Guess what, Simon? It is time for Chad's Choice, presented by Hard Rock Bet. Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice? My choice. We can't run from who we are. Sharp dudes can just see it. You know what I mean? I'm going with the Cleveland Browns plus five and a half at home against the San Francisco 49ers. I feel like I dodged a bullet last night. uh i nearly pulled the trigger on the panthers at plus seven and a half like you and i we discussed it all week and like there was something we just couldn't quite get there on the panthers at least for purposes of the show and i was uh so tempted it was like i was still debating it up until about 6 30 uh and then i spoke to a buddy of mine mike kerns actually who you know was at the chernan group recruited me to help uh help them all launch action and massive niners fan and he walked me back on the panthers didn't go exactly as sort of the blowout that i think we had convinced ourselves it would be san francisco played fine brock purdy you know three picks the panthers are really the reason why they didn't cover that game the missed field goals the picks from Bryce Young. But we now got the San Francisco 49ers on the road. This number is moved from six and a half. So I'm betting into a number that's moved. But at the end of the day, it's not about Dylan Gabriel being quarterbacked. It's not about Shredor Sanders being quarterback. It's about the Browns at home as a dog with this defense that is going to be much more effective than anything they saw against the Panthers. We both like this on Sunday night when the Browns were six and a half. That's when I bet it, but I'm still betting into it at five and a half.”
26-8 — 49ers beat Browns 26-8; Cleveland lost outright by 18, busting the +5.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Guess what, Simon? It is time for Chad's Choice, presented by Hard Rock Bet. Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice? My choice. We can't run from who we are. Sharp dudes can just see it. You know what I mean? I'm going with the Cleveland Browns plus five and a half at home against the San Francisco 49ers. I feel like I dodged a bullet last night. uh i nearly pulled the trigger on the panthers at plus seven and a half like you and i we discussed it all week and like there was something we just couldn't quite get there on the panthers at least for purposes of the show and i was uh so tempted it was like i was still debating it up until about 6 30 uh and then i spoke to a buddy of mine mike kerns actually who you know was at the chernan group recruited me to help uh help them all launch action and massive niners fan and he walked me back on the panthers didn't go exactly as sort of the blowout that i think we had convinced ourselves it would be san francisco played fine brock purdy you know three picks the panthers are really the reason why they didn't cover that game the missed field goals the picks from Bryce Young. But we now got the San Francisco 49ers on the road. This number is moved from six and a half. So I'm betting into a number that's moved. But at the end of the day, it's not about Dylan Gabriel being quarterbacked. It's not about Shredor Sanders being quarterback. It's about the Browns at home as a dog with this defense that is going to be much more effective than anything they saw against the Panthers. We both like this on Sunday night when the Browns were six and a half. That's when I bet it, but I'm still betting into it at five and a half. Yeah, fortunately, I did. I did take the Panthers last. I knew I was going to, but it was just as soon as I won that Rams game and had all that money. I was like, well, I can't just take this home with me. I got to put some of this on the Panthers. And like you said, those picks by Purdy felt pretty good. But he did exactly what we worried about, right? It was the game after his historical best game of his career. He just totally meltdown and played terrible for this game. I mean, I can't believe people are back in the 49ers here. I'm so happy to see these numbers come down, Chad, because yes, it had gone up to six and a half, which I said it might. We talked a little bit Sunday night, but I was like, what pros are hammering this 49ers team on the road here? Like this is – I don't feel like this is the right spot to be backing Purdy in this game. And, you know, as much as we want to fade Sanders after his big win, and my God, like him talking in front of a mic, I get why this coach won't say his name in press conferences. He must just hate how cocky and arrogant this kid is for, you know, doing the bare minimum in this. We have 11 passes or 11 competitions in that game. So, you know, I love Sanders. I feel like the locker room loves them. The fan base seems to love them. So as much as negativity this coach has brought around it, it feels like everything I've read the reports and seen stuff with the Cleveland team, they've really rallied around this kid. I believe they named him the starter already for this game. Yeah, they have. They did. So that part should be part of why the number moved as well, just because maybe most people have him graded now higher than Dylan Gabriel, because at least he does do one thing very well, which you can't say for Gabriel, which is pushing the ball downfield. He does have a pretty good arm. So, yeah, this matchup, we've talked about it. We just don't trust this 49ers defense. We think they're suspect. Even against Carolina, Carolina felt like they were moving the ball pretty well. It was just the Bryce Young turnovers that kept killing them. And, you know, Canales, all of a sudden the most aggressive coach in the world, is now playing cautious. What the fuck? I mean, seriously. Like it just, there's no rhyme or reason. I complained about this with a lot of these coaches this year It like the one day they do one thing the next day they feel a different way It like it doesn feel like they listening to any type of math or just going strictly off gut which is not the right way to be um but yeah for this game Chad nailed it like I I love this Browns team it's it's unfortunate it's still not six we talk all the time it's such a key number but you know this game should be closer to four three and a half we're getting some free points here on a 49ers team that you know they finally did it they covered a game after they had won a game so now they're 2 and 15 after it went against the spread I'm gonna keep going after that trend and I feel like another good spot where um we thought we thought the number would catch up to this Browns team at home feels like the books still haven't caught up to it feels like we're still getting away with one here on this Browns team at home just how different they do play and um really diving into it the way this matchup is going to play out you know can Purdy beat us sure We know that that's going to work out, but you already know they're going to scheme up to take away Christian McCaffrey. I'm excited to see what this offense can do without him because even that Carolina game, I feel like every time they needed a big play, once again, it was McCaffrey getting that third down pickup. Once you put it on Purdy, I feel like he's going to struggle. So I love this matchup with you as well on this Browns team.”
26-8 — 49ers beat Browns 26-8; Cleveland lost outright by 18, busting the +5.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers. The Carolina Panthers are 10-point home underdogs. And this started going up after the Rams' dominant performance against the Bucs. Even, you know, in that first half, it was starting to move. It's interesting. It's the second week in a row where the bookmakers are showing us how much more they respect the NFC West than the NFC South, right? Last week, the Bucs go into Los Angeles to play the Rams, six and a half, seven point underdogs. The Panthers go into California, go into San Francisco, and they play the Panthers, seven, seven and a half point underdogs. Now, all of a sudden, they're going to play the Panthers. The Panthers are 10 point dogs to the Rams in Carolina. So are the bookmakers telling us that the Carolina Panthers, who are a 500 team, would be 16 point underdogs to the Rams in Los Angeles? Like this number is massive. Maybe like a 13 point dog is what they're saying. But I I get where they're coming from. like honestly I'm betting this this Carolina team I know I mean we both are gonna bet them like we love this this feels like a great matchup and a spot for them to bounce back and um as great as”
28-31 — Panthers beat Rams 31-28; Carolina won outright by 3, covering the +10 line (ESPN box score).
“You know where there aren't fears, Simon? The Atlanta Falcons at the New York Jets. The New York Jets are currently two and a half point underdogs. And the New York Jets will be our brass balls. Bed of the week. You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. We agreed on this one from the get go.”
24-27 — Jets beat Falcons 27-24; New York won outright by 3, covering the +2.5 line (ESPN box score).
“the new york giants resurgent competitive for two weeks in a row with jamis winston new york giants took the packers down to the wire took the lions into overtime lost both games uh dramatically Now they're visiting the New England Patriots. They are seven and a half point underdogs, Monday night football. We don't know at this point if it's going to be Jameis or Jackson Dart. My feeling is it's going to be Jackson Dart. He did practice last week. He traveled with the team. That indicates to me that he's probably going to be ready to go. I think the real issue here, Simon, is who's playing on the left side of the offensive line for the New England Patriots? because they had players just being carted off on Sunday in that game that they barely covered against the Bengals. So I know where I'm going to lean in this game. Do you want to say it? Do you want me to say it? Do we want to be discussing together? Do you want to say it on the count of three? One, two, three. Giants? Giants, Giants, Giants, Giants.”
15-33 — Patriots beat Giants 33-15 on Monday Night Football; New York lost outright by 18, busting the +7.5 line (ESPN box score).
“They are seven and a half point underdogs, Monday night football. We don't know at this point if it's going to be Jameis or Jackson Dart. My feeling is it's going to be Jackson Dart. He did practice last week. He traveled with the team. That indicates to me that he's probably going to be ready to go. I think the real issue here, Simon, is who's playing on the left side of the offensive line for the New England Patriots? because they had players just being carted off on Sunday in that game that they barely covered against the Bengals. So I know where I'm going to lean in this game. Do you want to say it? Do you want me to say it? Do we want to be discussing together? Do you want to say it on the count of three? One, two, three. Giants? Giants, Giants, Giants, Giants. You weren't with me on that. We weren't coordinated. Well, Zoom, it sinks us out, I thought, if we say it at the same time. But yeah, I love the Giants as well. We talked before the show.”
15-33 — Patriots beat Giants 33-15 on Monday Night Football; New York lost outright by 18, busting the +7.5 line (ESPN box score).
“New England at Cincinnati. It's been a tricky one. The Bengals are seven, seven and a half point underdogs. Depending on where you look, it's everywhere. If you can get the seven and a half, you should go get it. The Cincinnati Bengals with Joe Flacco starting are going to be our rock and hard plays, hard rock, bet of the week.”
26-20 — Patriots beat Bengals 26-20; Cincinnati lost by only 6, covering the +7.5 line (ESPN box score).
“because we're not. Another one, I have felt strongly all week, Chad's choice. Arizona is a two and a half point underdog at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. I said on Tuesday, it was Chad's choice at two and a half, but I told everybody, wait for it to get to three. It got to three and immediately got that back down to two and a half. Maybe I'm being irrational. I love the Cardinals here.”
27-24 — Jaguars beat Cardinals 27-24 in overtime, a 3-point margin that exceeds the +2.5 line; Arizona busts (ESPN box score).
“we're good on the Cowboys at plus three.”
21-24 — Cowboys beat Eagles 24-21; Dallas won outright by 3, covering the +3 line (ESPN box score).
“just strictly going off the number i i prefer obviously the colts because we're getting the three and a half hook but that's kind of what that's my thinking is i think they're two and a half versus three and a half so give me the colts getting more than a field goal”
20-23 — Chiefs beat Colts 23-20 in overtime; Indianapolis lost by only 3, covering the +3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“i took the lions they're minus three right now against green”
31-24 — Packers beat Lions 31-24 on Thanksgiving; Detroit lost by 7, busting the -3 line (ESPN box score).
“threw a little on dallas third plus three and a half against the chiefs at home”
28-31 — Cowboys beat Chiefs 31-28 on Thanksgiving; Dallas won outright by 3, covering the +3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“i threw a little on the bangles plus eight and a half on thursday night against uh”
14-32 — Bengals beat Ravens 32-14 on Thanksgiving; Cincinnati won by 18, covering the +8.5 line (ESPN box score).
“But anything above six plus six or above I think is a good number for this Browns team in this matchup And I can believe it but Colts minus three and a half at home against the Houston Texans I know they're saying CJ is going to be back. I just, I think the love for Houston is going to be at its peak right now. People are just really loving this team. That's why they're kind of sucking in with this hook here. So I'm going to take that early number just in case CJ is out again. It is Davis Mills. I know he's 3-0 and people are loving it, but I don't know if this is a great spot. Davis Mills on the road indoors in this type of crowd environment. So that was another early line I grabbed.”
16-20 — Texans beat Colts 20-16; Indianapolis lost outright by 4, busting the -3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I'm definitely going to be on Houston at plus six.”
23-19 — Texans beat Bills 23-19 on Thursday Night Football; Houston +6 covers easily (ESPN box score).
“Today, one of the games you didn't mention, which we both liked a lot, Seattle, which is now a 13 and a half point favorite at Tennessee. we talked about it on Tuesday we bet it on Tuesday we bet it at 12 and a half on Tuesday it's obviously moved up to me we can say that the perceived value is lost in this game”
30-24 — Seahawks beat Titans 30-24, a 6-point margin that falls short of the -12.5 line; Seattle busts (ESPN box score).
“But like you said, I'm in on Seahawks at 13.”
30-24 — Seahawks beat Titans 30-24, a 6-point margin that falls short of the -13 line; Seattle busts (ESPN box score).
“If you want to hear all the trends I read out, check out Tuesday's show. But it's not only is a great matchup on paper and through the numbers, but there's tons of data and trends that show this spot is unique to this Lions team with golf and Campbell. They usually win and cover. The one I will bring up again is when they're above a four favorite and after a loss at home, eight no against the spread in this exact spot. So play the number here. We'll take the Lions. And like I said, it's a rare spot. I usually don't give out double-digit favorites as my favorite bet of the week. But I thought I was going to keep going up. Like you just said, Chad, it's down to 10 out of hard rock. So I'm going to take that value and bet this number again.”
27-34 — Lions beat Giants 34-27 in overtime, a 7-point margin that falls short of the -10 line; Detroit busts (ESPN box score).
“So, yeah, I just look at the matchup wise. I kind of like this matchup for the Bears in a lot of ways, but we go back to it. It's how long can they keep getting away with this? They're just not that good of a team that has a ton of wins. But if this drops some more and it is Rodgers back, I'm going to end up on the Bears chat. But two and a half, I'll still be on Pittsburgh. Once this dips below two, it's like this becomes a Bears line. This is a pretty evenly matched team and bears do have somewhat of a home field advantage. So I just, if it moves too much off the Rogers news, I'll, I'll take a position on the bears if I need to.”
28-31 — Bears beat Steelers 31-28; Pittsburgh lost outright, busting the -2.5 line (ESPN box score).
“forward slash screenings. New England at Cincinnati. Cincinnati is now a six and a half point dog. Crazy, crazy swings in this game on six and a half at Hard Rock Bat, seven other places. this game it was seven and a half on Tuesday we thought it was going to be Joe Flacco we knew there would be no Jamar Chase at some point I know in my notes I saw this game go to eight and a half and now it's down to six and a half we're talking about Joe Burrow we're still getting 70 percent of the bets coming in on New England but obviously news about who's going to be playing quarterback for the Bengals is changing a lot of the the market in this game yeah and it's kind of crazy that um we just I was not expecting Joe bro I don't know about you I had heard he might be back Thanksgiving yeah or after Thanksgiving like Thanksgiving was gonna be pushing it because it's a Thursday game out see against that Ravens but incredible just we talk all the time just how far health medicine all of it has come for these athletes and like the fact that he is back potentially starting this week is pretty incredible so joe flacco is a point better than joe burrow that was the most shocking part to me it only moved the point it only moved most books of seven and a half to six and a half so yeah i don't know or i guess a couple books did touch eight and a half but yeah i was just shocked it only moved that much um still like cincy if it is Joe Burrow. You know, a little worrisome because he is coming in cold, I guess you could say, right? He hasn't had the reps. He's coming in in a weird spot and, you know, it's not ideal, but I still think you're getting a great number. I just can't get over the fact that this Patriots team, like I gave out that stat. It's just never a good stat or good spot, I should say, to be in an eight-game win streak on the road as a big favorite. And the number has moved, so maybe I'm overreading it. There is value on the Patriots now, but I still think this is a bangles number. Like to me, Joe Burrow, if he was healthy mid-season playing, even if the record is what it is, this line would not be above three and a half four So are we getting an extra two and a half points Cause it Joe Burrow coming a little cold and the books don really know how to price it and there no chase Like you know it just I see why the public is still going to be on this Patriots team. So I went from liking the Spanglers team to like kind of loving this spot now where it's like, this is the exact situation you want to be in. It's just, it depends on the number. If people don't feel comfortable now that it's moved off to seven, I get it. But every book is six and a half. You're just – that's what it is. So, once again, like I said on Tuesday, I wasn't making people rush to bet it because I didn't know where the quarterback was going to be. I had no idea it was going to be Joe Burrow. So, I hope people grabbed it. I said I bet it on Tuesday at the 7. At this point, I'm going to bet it again just in case it keeps dropping.”
26-20 — Patriots beat Bengals 26-20; Cincinnati lost by only 6, covering the +6.5 line (ESPN box score).
“playing the number strictly three and a half that's where i got to be with this colts team”
20-23 — Chiefs beat Colts 23-20 in overtime; Indianapolis lost by only 3, covering the +3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I'm down to Cincy and Vegas. Do Vegas. You love it. You've been tempted all week. I do love Vegas. I'll take minus 3.5. I tried to get you off of it, but you love it. I love the Raiders. I love it.”
24-10 — Browns beat Raiders 24-10; Las Vegas lost outright by 14, busting the -3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I'm I'm I'm more so like I've said, I'm heavy on the money line for this Raiders team.”
24-10 — Browns beat Raiders 24-10; Las Vegas lost outright, so the moneyline bet busts (ESPN box score).
“But the truth is I'm just fading the Jags here, and I'm betting. That's much more what I'm doing than betting on the cards. I know you love it when I geek out on the numbers. so i'm sure you're familiar with pythagorean wins which essentially like the number of wins a team is supposed to have based on all of their underlying advanced metrics that shows the true performance it kind of takes a lot of the luck out of the game it just shows you all right if everything was equal this is how this team would be this is what their this team's record would be. And of course, when I look at this, the Jags should have about one fewer win and the Cardinals should have one more win. So instead of being a team that is like, what are the cards? Three and seven, they should probably be closer to four and six or five and five. And the Jags, instead of being six and four, should probably be closer to five and five. That's not how this game is lined. This game is lined is that the Jags are a much, much better team. I don't see it that way. Give me the cards. Plus three. Yeah. And I think it did move a little bit because of the injuries”
27-24 — Jaguars beat Cardinals 27-24 in overtime, a 3-point margin that exactly matches the +3 line; Arizona pushes (ESPN box score).
“We're taking the Cardinals at a good number at plus three.”
27-24 — Jaguars beat Cardinals 27-24 in overtime, a 3-point margin that exactly matches the +3 line; Arizona pushes (ESPN box score).
“It's going to be the New Orleans Saints, minus one and a half.”
24-10 — Falcons beat Saints 24-10; New Orleans lost outright by 14, busting the -1.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, and hopefully people can get this before it moves to two. A hard rockin' jersey here just moved to two while we're doing this live, honestly. And a lot of books are flying. So, two real public books out there are still at the one and a half, which I hope people can get but um talk a little bit about it like this is a split game i know some pros do every time it touches two they're going to take atlanta and on the flip side with the saints every time it's at this number minus one and a half every pro i know is going to take the saints so it's been really fun where it's a lot of back and forth and it's really about what you just said atlanta they're not that bad of a team like if you go through a lot of their games i mean they they could have beat the patriots they could have beat the colts right Those are huge, massive wins that could have really flipped their season. But they've struggled in those close one-score games, and I do put that on the coaching. So I don't think Kirk is an upgrade to Penix. And you said the number one weapon on that team is going to be out as well, Drake London. Right. I can't believe we talked a little bit on Tuesday about it, and I gave out all those Kirk stats, how horrible he's been. Once you really dive into it, though, and the injuries this team has had at Atlanta, how do you not love the Saints here? So I'm glad to see it's moving it, too. At least it shows me that real money is coming in heavily finally on the Saints team, which to me makes sense. So I hope people can get the one and a half here when they hear it”
24-10 — Falcons beat Saints 24-10; New Orleans lost outright by 14, busting the -1.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Cowboys plus three and a half, I've taken a pretty big position.”
21-24 — Cowboys beat Eagles 24-21; Dallas won outright by 3, covering the +3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“And yeah, we're just on opposite sides. You like the Bucs, but I don't think you'll take the Bucs here at minus 6.5. I think you'll just – or plus 6.5. You'll just wait. Grab the 7. We're on the Rams. If you're getting this now, I would take the 6.5 now because I only think this goes up. I just don't see it coming down just because I think Bucky will be out.”
7-34 — Rams beat Buccaneers 34-7; Los Angeles won by 27, covering the -6.5 line (ESPN box score).
“they're plus 140 yeah arizona um all right uh the favorites we're definitely going to go with the raiders oh yeah uh we're gonna go with the saints what about kansas city yeah we can do it kansas city you know i think i think them being five and six is very real raiders saints kansas city I gonna do Seattle Yeah do some adjusted lines do Seattle minus 5 Okay Seattle minus 5 Let do one more How can we not take Packers? Yeah, take the Packers. I get it. It's a divisional game.”
LV 10-24 CLE; NO 10-24 ATL; IND 20-23 KC; TEN 24-30 SEA; MIN 6-23 GB — Parlay legs: Browns beat Raiders 24-10 (Raiders ML lost); Falcons beat Saints 24-10 (Saints ML lost); Chiefs beat Colts 23-20 OT (Chiefs ML won); Seahawks beat Titans 30-24, covering the -5 adjusted line (won); Packers beat Vikings 23-6 (Packers ML won). Two legs lost, so the parlay busts (ESPN box scores).
“I know I bet Seattle on Sunday at 12 and a half. I'm assuming you did as well.”
SEA 30, TEN 24 — Seahawks beat Titans 30-24; Seattle's 6-point win fell short of the -12.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“against this texans defense that's really going to be the game seattle minus 13 versus tennessee they're visiting the tennessee titans we talked about this one on sunday night you pegged it immediately. I know I bet Seattle on Sunday at 12 and a half. I'm assuming you did as well. Totally a big number, but the defense is as good as let's say Houston's that just played the Titans and held them to 13 points. And it took a miracle to get there. And it's offense is so much better than Houston's or the Chargers for that matter, both of which were in position to cover big numbers late in the game. So I feel like the universe should write itself with this one. Yeah, and I said this is a spot I would never usually take. I just blindly would take home dog. especially this big. And a lot of the numbers do back it up, playing dogs this big at home, just so people know why. This is a rare spot for me to take the Cialis. So since 2020, favorites of 11 points or more, 3-7 against the spread, which is pretty bad. They're actually 5-5 straight up in those games. So it's a weird thing where these teams that are big favorites, juggernauts, lose these games. but I don't think it's here. I think we just saw Tennessee's best shot the week before in a divisional game. I agree. Now they're facing an absolute juggernaut. So I just said those trends just to give up. People couldn't believe when I was saying I like the Seahawks. And I said I usually blindly would bet Tennessee in the spot, but this lane of season with a number this big, like I said, the books were going to be begging for Tennessee money, and they opened it too short, and I think it's still too short. Like, why is this not above 14 here? So Tennessee, we've seen it this year. We've been burned by these fluky random points they get. Like Chad said, those late touchdowns or field goals by Ward. They just they've been a covering machine. But here it feels like it's a great spot for Seattle. They are eight and two against the spread this season, Seattle. So like they've been covering pretty well with these big numbers. And it's really if you go and look, it's them being up on bad teams. They do really well against bad teams. So I think it's just their defense is so, so well coached. They really don't give an inch. And then offensively, we just saw Sam Darnold have his worst game of the year. It just feels like the exact spot he needs to get right. So with Jeffrey Simmons back, I don't really think Seattle will have much of a run game option. But passing-wise, they should torch this secondary. So, yeah, still like this number as long as you're getting under 14. Look, the run game hasn't been that great anyways. That's been sort of the issue for Seattle. So I think this is a really good opportunity for Darnold to get right. And I think we did get a little bit of a lower number on Sunday. and even today because of the stink of what Darnold did and people thinking, oh, Sam Darnold, he's back, he's seeing ghosts again. I don't think that's the case. We've seen him have bad games. He had a bad game in the playoffs last year against the Rams and then came back and has been an MVP candidate for most of the year. So this is when you reassert yourself as an MVP candidate is against a very bad Tennessee Titans team. I broke my rule last week. I just said I will blindly bet Seattle as a road team They just been so good to me Under their head coach they 9 against the spread in this season They 5 They're just covering machines on the road. They just get up under McDonald's. You've got to bet it. I'm trying not to let the numbers scare me off. It's an insane number, but I think Seattle's worthy of it.”
SEA 30, TEN 24 — Seahawks beat Titans 30-24; Seattle's 6-point win fell well short of the -13 spread (ESPN box score).
“It feels like it's the right spot to take the Steelers, but it's pain in me. I just – I don't want to go – there's something magical about this Bears team. They're just so well coached. I think they'll be able to run the ball against the Steelers team, but we've seen it. Tomlin flies away, and I just think this is just playing the number. It's too big a plus three. Yeah, I agree as much as it pains me to bet against the Bears in this spot. All of it just feels – we saw that – we've seen this before, right? We've seen this with the Vikings a couple years ago. We saw this with the Giants and Brian Dayballs first year. We saw it with the Chiefs last year. There are teams that get on a roll and they go eight, nine, ten games where they win by one score. And you keep expecting it every week. Like how do you figure out when the regression is going to come? That's what makes it so difficult because at some point you either got to get off the train and try to time that perfectly. It's like timing the market. How do you time the freaking market? You know? Who's everybody? Your team. Like they're graded as the one of the worst teams in NFL history in the last like 25 years to be seven and three just like the all the underlying numbers and data Totally That why I love football it like it don matter you gotta line up and play the game they keep finding a way so i i get what people are saying but at the end of the day it doesn matter meaning it doesn't matter we're taking the steelers still taking the steelers but i'm just”
CHI 31, PIT 28 — Bears beat Steelers 31-28; Pittsburgh's exact 3-point loss matched the +3 spread, a push (ESPN box score).
“But also Jalen Hyatt just gave up on the route. And this was not a Jameis Winston tragedy. It was Jalen Hyatt not doing his job. I don't know that the Giants have the same dead cat bounce against a desperate. desperate, and that's what they are right now, Detroit Lions team. It's shockingly going to be my Simon Says check. Simon Says, presented by Hard Rock Bet. Minus 10.5. I want to play a game, Simon Says. Wow. It's a big favorite, but it's really about this Lions”
DET 34, NYG 27 — Lions beat Giants 34-27 in overtime; Detroit's 7-point win fell short of the -10.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I got to give out the seven and a half on the Bengals.”
NE 26, CIN 20 — Patriots beat Bengals 26-20; Cincinnati's 6-point loss stayed within the +7.5 spread, a cover (ESPN box score).
“I'm on the Raiders at minus three.”
CLE 24, LV 10 — Browns beat Raiders 24-10; Las Vegas' 14-point loss busted the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Well, listen, if we're not going to do Gino, then let's do something else that's really gross. And this one is going to be Chad's Choice presented by Hard Rock Bad. I am going with the Arizona Cardinals plus two and a half against the Jacksonville Jaguars.”
JAX 27, ARI 24 — Jaguars beat Cardinals 27-24 in overtime; Arizona's 3-point loss busted the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“right they have not had anywhere near as bad as injury luck as that bill's defense has had so yeah it's six and a half i get why the pros are bad in this rams team i get why this number is moved so i'll go with the pros or i'll bet with the rams but i hate it i hate going against baker but he just seems like he struggles in the spot hate it here's what's interesting here's what's”
LAR 34, TB 7 — Rams beat Buccaneers 34-7; Los Angeles' 27-point win covered the -6.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to have to be on the Panthers at plus seven.”
SF 20, CAR 9 — 49ers beat Panthers 20-9; Carolina's 11-point loss busted the +7 spread (ESPN box score).
“Cincinnati at Pittsburgh. Five at Hard Rock Bet. Five and a half everywhere else. I bet into it at five and a half. I'm a little surprised it hasn't moved to five everywhere else because it looks like the money is coming in on Cincinnati I still really like it at five and a half are you with me”
PIT 34, CIN 12 — Steelers beat Bengals 34-12; Cincinnati's 22-point loss busted the +5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“To me I am 100 betting against the Steelers defense and betting on T Higgins Jamar Chase being able to find ways to get downfield against a really really really bad Steelers defensive backfield right now Cincinnati Bengals plus five and a half. If you can find it, which you should be able to, we're on the Bengals.”
PIT 34, CIN 12 — Steelers beat Bengals 34-12; Cincinnati's 22-point loss busted the +5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“i bet houston minus six and a half”
HOU 16, TEN 13 — Texans beat Titans 16-13; Houston's 3-point margin fell short of the -6.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'll add the Los Angeles Rams. The Los Angeles Rams are three-point favorites. This was our Brass Balls Bet of the Week presented by Hard Rock Bet. We're both on the Rams here.”
LAR 21, SEA 19 — Rams beat Seahawks 21-19; Los Angeles' 2-point margin fell short of the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Like we talked, there's a show. It was three at Hard Rock. Three and a half got touched on a bunch of books, including Hard Rock, and they immediately got bet down. So we talk all the time. There's some really sharp groups that use Hard Rock. They clearly are taking a stand at Seahawks at three and a half. They feel like that's too much. We love them at three. Even better, we get a two and a half in our contest. So I just don't know how we avoid this one. I really love this number. All right. Los Angeles Rams. We're on them at three.”
LAR 21, SEA 19 — Rams beat Seahawks 21-19; Los Angeles' 2-point margin fell short of the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Baltimore at Cleveland. This was Chad's choice at eight and a half.”
BAL 23, CLE 16 — Ravens beat Browns 23-16; Cleveland's 7-point loss stayed within the +8.5 spread, a cover (ESPN box score).
“So yeah it there an eight out there like Chet said at Hard Rock I don want to be scared off if you get seven and a half I don't see us landing on eight. I think seven and a half is plenty of points in this matchup. All right. We're in on the Cleveland Browns.”
BAL 23, CLE 16 — Ravens beat Browns 23-16; Cleveland's 7-point loss stayed within the +7.5 spread, a cover (ESPN box score).
“Detroit at Philadelphia. Philadelphia is a two and a half point favorite. This, Simon, is our Rockin' a Hard Place Bet of the Week presented by Hard Rock Bet. Look, you just talked about Detroit is becoming the public dog for the week. It's probably what's been tamping down this number and keeping it at two and a half at Hard Rock. It's starting to move to three in some other places. That tells me that the professionals are finally coming in full force on Philadelphia here. Lots of reasons to like the Eagles. Lots of reasons to like the Lions. I'm going to go with what we've been talking about all week. I know people are saying, there are stories every day that there are problems with this Eagles offense. To me, they are different than the problems last year. The problems last year seemed like Jalen Hurts was lacking confidence. Jalen Hurst does not seem to be lacking confidence this year. Jalen Hurst seems to be playing a very conservative type of football where he is doing what he needs to do to get his team in a position to win. That puts them in a position to win a close game against a very good team by a field goal. The flip side, the Lions have so many injuries, again, on defense that it's going to be hard for them to execute as they normally would against still a very, very good Eagles offense. So we're on the Eagles.”
PHI 16, DET 9 — Eagles beat Lions 16-9; Philadelphia's 7-point win covered the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Philadelphia is a two and a half point favorite. This, Simon, is our Rockin' a Hard Place Bet of the Week presented by Hard Rock Bet. Look, you just talked about Detroit is becoming the public dog for the week. It's probably what's been tamping down this number and keeping it at two and a half at Hard Rock. It's starting to move to three in some other places. That tells me that the professionals are finally coming in full force on Philadelphia here. Lots of reasons to like the Eagles. Lots of reasons to like the Lions. I'm going to go with what we've been talking about all week. I know people are saying, there are stories every day that there are problems with this Eagles offense. To me, they are different than the problems last year. The problems last year seemed like Jalen Hurts was lacking confidence. Jalen Hurst does not seem to be lacking confidence this year. Jalen Hurst seems to be playing a very conservative type of football where he is doing what he needs to do to get his team in a position to win. That puts them in a position to win a close game against a very good team by a field goal. The flip side, the Lions have so many injuries, again, on defense that it's going to be hard for them to execute as they normally would against still a very, very good Eagles offense. So we're on the Eagles. Yeah, and this should be a get-right spot for this Eagles offense.”
PHI 16, DET 9 — Eagles beat Lions 16-9; Philadelphia's 7-point win covered the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, it is three and a half. All right. So this is what I put in, Chad. I just give you what I put in for us after Thursday show I put in Eagles minus one and plus 8 LA minus 2 I put your Cincy in at plus 5 and then I had Carolina in at plus 3.5. Now, I still like Carolina, but you can tell I'm not as confident as I was on Thursday's show. I just don't like the stuff I've read and seen from Bryce Young at a practice this week, but I still think it's such a huge number for an Atlanta team I just do not believe in to be favored in. I got to tell you, I like the Panthers more than I like the Raiders.”
CAR 30, ATL 27 — Panthers beat Falcons 30-27 in overtime; Carolina's outright win covered the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So we're on the Eagles 2.5 tonight.”
PHI 16, DET 9 — Eagles beat Lions 16-9; Philadelphia's 7-point win covered the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Let's first talk about Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, which no one has mentioned. The line been generally holding at five and a half bumped down to five at hard rock bet But I seeing other places where the juice is indicating it going to go up to six I honestly surprised and a little bit disappointed that it hasn't been more aggressively moving to five like we're seeing at Hard Rock. Obviously, I bet into it at five and a half. To me, it entirely comes down to the offensive weapons for the Bengals. And I know everyone's going to say everything they want to”
PIT 34, CIN 12 — Steelers beat Bengals 34-12; Cincinnati's 22-point loss busted the +5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Let's first talk about Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, which no one has mentioned. The line been generally holding at five and a half bumped down to five at hard rock bet But I seeing other places where the juice is indicating it going to go up to six I honestly surprised and a little bit disappointed that it hasn't been more aggressively moving to five like we're seeing at Hard Rock. Obviously, I bet into it at five and a half. To me, it entirely comes down to the offensive weapons for the Bengals. And I know everyone's going to say everything they want to about the Steelers could be a bounce back spot. Aaron Rodgers played terrible. Maybe the lines deflated a little bit because of how bad the Steelers did against the Chargers. Maybe Aaron Rodgers and Pat Friermuth and Jalen Warren can get right against a terrible, terrible, terrible Bengals defense. We know how bad the Bengals defense is. We've also seen how good the Bengals offense can be, especially against a suspect defense. And right now, the Steelers secondary is sus. Like, it's just terrible. How are they going to defend against an exceptional group of receivers and Joe Flacco, who he's ageless? Yeah, and we were both a little weird this one. and we just understand the line. That's another game we just thought would make more sense at 3-3.5. Like we said, it was just two weeks ago this Bengals team upset and beat the Steelers team. And Steelers are banged up. Like they're not healthy. They have a bunch of injuries and a bunch of key positions as well. Bengals, like you just said, coming off a bye week. I mean, I thought it was funny. Joe Burrow, who's rushing back, which is really impressive, great for him. But that's not going to fix any of their issues. Like this Bengals team. They literally have been scoring more points, averaging more points with Flacco at the helm than Joe. It doesn't matter. He's just not the fix. This defense is just atrocious. So I agree with you. The number makes sense. We'll grab it and hope for a backdoor. Maybe Joe will have the lead and the backdoor will come from Rodgers. And we still have a key number above three, and that won't matter for us. But I thought it was interesting looking at Zach Taylor, the head coach. what can we take away from him in these type of situations after a bye week is he a good coach does he get guys prepared he is one and four against the spread yeah i i don't expect anything from zach taylor i mean zach taylor man just whoo some people it's crazy so he's I mean, I can't blame him. The offense has been good with Flacco, a lot of stuff, but apparently it's just been all matchup based. So the last time they played, Joe Flacco made fun of the Spitzbrook team. He said he didn't even know the Bengals' offense. They were just running the same zone scheme over and over again. So I'm looking for reasons to avoid it because this number feels so fishy to me. I'm going to join you. I'm going to bet the Bengals, but I have not made this one of my bigger bets this week. I just – I don't know.”
PIT 34, CIN 12 — Steelers beat Bengals 34-12; Cincinnati's 22-point loss busted the +5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I did bet the Texans at minus six and a half”
HOU 16, TEN 13 — Texans beat Titans 16-13; Houston's 3-point margin fell short of the -6.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“are the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams. Simon, we're going to have a deep conversation about this one because the Los Angeles Rams are going to be our Brass Balls Bet of the Week presented by Hard Rock Bet. You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. I know we had a long conversation on Tuesday about Seattle and I think we both have sort of come to the conclusion that we like the Rams here for me it was about some of the research I did on the matchups and the schemes despite Seattle's defensive prowess and how the Rams can take advantage of that you got a lot of blowback from the wise guys and this one might be, I'm not going to say bullying you, but effectively debating you, positioning you, changing your mind, moving you off your opinion. Tell me what you heard, why it changed for you. I will share with you some of what I've researched and why it changed for me. But we both came to that independently. Yeah, I just honestly, my model likes Seattle and I like Seattle just the way they've been playing. I thought this would be a great match for them. But like you said, The more you dive into it, there's some weaknesses with Seattle defense that we know the Rams will exploit. And it's a unique game and a matchup. And I'm happy we have some strong opinions on it because it is probably the best game of the week. And early in the week, I was like, am I really going to bet heavy on one side or the other in this game because it's such two really good teams? I mean, I think Evan had this amazing stat. It's the first time in NFL history we've had two teams match up week 10 or later. that are both 77% against the spread and straight up matched up this late. So it's really unique where it's like two teams, betters have loved profit off heavily this season. Got to pick a spot now. I thought most books would be split. It it honestly really heavy the money towards this Ram side And we seen some three and a half pop up So if you do like the Rams I would grab it now I do think it could get the three and a half by game time just because so much professional money is coming to the Rams here And it's really about McVay, right? In his career against Seattle, he's just done so well. And we always saw these divisional teams, these matchups. Certain teams just know how to play against certain defenses. and it doesn't matter that they had a regime change for Seattle. He still owned them since that change. So Justin McVay in his career, 12-5 against the spread against Seattle. And since 2019, he's 11-2 against the spread. So it's just interesting McVay has just dominated this franchise for so long now. And with Stafford, I was like, okay, is there a bump with the Stafford? Because this is by far the best quarterback he's had in that run. he's 5-0 straight up 4-1 against the spread against seattle covering by almost seven points per game so staffers just dominated this matchup and you know i i agree with you i i probably overrated this seattle defense a little too much because they really have not faced a juggernaut path of quarterbacks they've had an easy kind of go here so i think this will be a true test for them we're getting a great number with a ramp team that's just playing insanely well one last amazing stat i saw evan post again i love stupid stats like this because it's just when you really look into it it's actually pretty smart since 2024 when the ramps have seven games and they commit three penalties or less in those seven games the following game they're 7-0 against the spread in that matchup they had zero penalties last week why is that smart though what is that telling you what's the correlation there that they're just playing sound football which is like you see all these other teams are super sloppy right now like that we joke that raiders game the raiders had nine penalties you don't really win games like that especially when you only score seven points the flip side the rams are putting up 35 points and against a divisional opponent having zero penalties on the road that's just really impressive to me it just shows when mcveigh you know he gets these guys playing at a high level and they're in sync like this they just keep it rolling so i just love that stack because it just shows this team is just totally in tune right now with everything and you know like we've been saying the Rams fluky fluky loss against that Eagles team and you know they could easily be the number one seed right now NFC they've been playing like the best for sure so a couple other things to keep in mind you just mentioned the money coming in on the Rams, the public is all over Seattle. Like this is a pros-joes game. It is a – they are the public dog here. That's number one. Number two, you mentioned some softness in the Seahawks defense. Where they are worst, and they're not bad at much, but where they are worst is defending against tight ends. And all of a sudden, the Los Angeles Rams have become the highest tight end usage team in the NFL. NFL they're going they're going four deep sometimes on tight ends so we've been seeing that and it's it's super exciting to watch but it's also devastating if you've bet against the Rams I don't want to be on the other side of the Rams and 13 personnel and Matthew Stafford against a team that has not been playing very well against tight ends and in in a game where something small like that is what the difference is going to be right it's going to be you know a tie game wait and the Rams have the ball with 90 seconds left from their own 20-yard line and Matthew Stafford finds Parkinson down the seam for 35 yards and gets him into field goal range. That could easily happen and that weakness could be the difference in the game. And I don't mind fading the public in this spot. I agree. And Devontae Adams has not practiced this week, but he got interviewed and he basically said, I'm going to be out there. I'm going to be playing. I'm not going to miss this game. So don't be worried if Devontae doesn't practice all week. I think he'll still play. I believe he has a bad hip, but I believe he'll still play. Los Angeles Rams, brass balls, bet of the week, presented by Hard Rock Bet. Speaking of receivers who are injured and their status being questionable or debated, the San Francisco 49ers are at Arizona. Arizona is a three-point dog. We liked Arizona on Tuesday. It was at two and a half. We wanted it to get to three. It did get to three. I don't know about you. I bet it at three. Marvin Harrison Jr. is out with an appendectomy. I don't think that matters to me. To me, this is about Jacoby Brissett and Trey McBride, and we're just talking about tight ends and a Niners defense that cannot rush the passer right now and has at the center of its defense a new signal caller replacing Fred Warner who played well but it still different when you playing against an all tight end caliber tight end like Trey McBride Yeah, I'm with you on the Cardinals. It's another game, though, just like a Jags where I'm just betting this number. I don't really feel that great about it. So you might have more opinions on this one than me. I simply just took this number. Obviously, Harris News sucks. As much as you want to downplay it, he is their number one. He's a big, big target who, with Bursette, seemed like he's been playing pretty well. So not ideal. But like you said, we're just playing the number here in the matchup. And I just can't have this 49ers team catching more than three points against anybody, let alone a divisional foe that can move the ball offensively. Like you said, train wreck start to that game against Seattle. They fought, played well throughout the game, and moved the ball pretty well. So it's a good number, but, man, is this a gross game. Do you want to hear my appendectomy story? Not really. The story is about how I was trying to close the NFL preview at ESPN the magazine, and I wasn't feeling well. Oh, no. And for two days, I stayed in the office, barely leaving, because my boss at the time, it was the first NFL preview we were ever closing. and my boss was like, she was like, you don't look good but we really need you. You're running this issue. We need you to be here to close it. I am like under my desk. I had to be removed and taken by ambulance to the hospital for an emergency appendectomy which I stayed in the hospital for 10 days after. Did you not know this? Yeah, because I was closing the NFL preview for ESPN the Magazine in 1998 But here's the kicker. Here's the kicker. After the surgery, we had like our reviews and my boss at the time, who I ended up quitting ESPN the magazine because I just could not stand her. She was one of the worst people I've ever worked with. Still to this day, horrible boss, stole every idea, would not give me any help with assignments, did not try to grow me in any particular way. in my review that year she gave me the equivalent of a check minus in Disney grading rules for attendance essentially at work And I like what do you mean She goes, well, you know, you were gone for two weeks in June. I'm like, that was my honeymoon? I just started four weeks earlier and everyone knew I was getting married. She's like, and then there was that time like in September where you were gone for like two and a half weeks. I'm like when an ambulance came and took me out because I had an emergency appendectomy the point of the story Simon I played through it did you I don't know, it seems like the appendix won I closed the issue it put you down for 10 days I closed the issue, the point was I closed the issue I had a buddy with basically the same thing, but unlike you he was it was college he was boozing drinking he goes i think something's wrong is the same thing where it's like right down like above the crotch like below the stomach kind of yeah yeah yeah yeah so basically same thing as you were you probably had like a sharp pain in that area yeah and he can't he basically couldn't stand up right apart he says he can't stand up he's in so much pain and i go dude you should go to a hospital if you're in that much pain he goes but i feel fine sitting here it's just when i stand up i can't stand up and i basically a buddy put him on his shoulder and carried him down the street to a local doctor that took him to the hospital. It doesn't sound like he was so committed to his job. He stayed at the office for two days in agony to close the NFL preview issue. We haven't even really talked about the time that I wrote a cover story for ESPN the magazine after I had broken my back in a cab accident. Next time. We'll get to that one next time. Baltimore at Cleveland. This one was Chad's choice when it was eight and a half. The number at Hard Rock is now down to seven and a half. You mentioned there's some lingering news or news about a knee issue with Lamar Jackson, but we were all over this before. I'm glad to hear that the Wise Guys are into it too. Give me some feedback on what they were telling you. I have some thoughts on a very specific point that you and I discussed about this game the other day, but tell me what the Wise Guys were telling you and how you're feeling about this 48 hours later. Well, like I said, it feels like, not that we lucked into it, but it's just a spot we both loved. I feel like most of them knew something was up with Lamar, that he was a little banged up from that game and they were taking a position on it because their view of it if you already getting a bang up with Lamar and he he does play you handicapping him because he not gonna have the same rushing ability against one of the best defensive lines in all football so um the early line move has a shock me i'm shocked though it has stuck at seven and a half i thought this would be just like that houston tennessee line where the books would hedge a little bit right move it down to seven maybe six and a half just in case Lamar is out in this game so they must must be pretty positive confident that Lamar does play which I don't know how you can trust the Ravens right now like I I just anything Harbaugh says to me is just I don't believe any of it now like I'll believe it come Friday practice if he's with the first team and you know that's reported by reporters not the team itself so yeah it's um I'm so glad we got the early line on Cleveland but it's it's a tough game to try to handicap now because we really don't know if it's obviously if it's not Lamar I mean we're elated I would tell people to bet it now if you really think that but I do think Lamar plays I just he's such a competitor he's missed so much time I just unless he's really really banged up and he can't move I can't see him missing this one but for us I wanted to play like a banged up Lamar I mean it's it's a great great matchup for Myles Garrett and the boys and um just dive into this game more we talked a little bit about it it's I'm not putting so much faith in Dylan Gabriel I still think he's got issues I do think this Cleveland team better run the ball against this Ravens team I don't think has fixed all of their issues so yep still love the number still love the matchup um it's just what will this number end up being hopefully people grab the eight and a half when you gave it out how do you feel about betting it at seven and a half I still bet it just because it's just the unknown a little more I'm just I don't want people to go too crazy because he does come back this will definitely get back to eight I think eight and a half unless the professionals really keep this down um i can't say it happens just gonna be so much public money on this ravens team they're just one of the most beloved teams of football right now especially by the betting public they've just exactly what everyone predicted to happen with them has happened lamar even before he came back even the backup they've won it covered it feels like three games in a row here and they've totally flipped that division with a losing record they're the big odds on favor to win that division so um it's just i don't want people to invest too much here into this number just in case he does come back. But how can you not throw a little on if you did miss 8.5? Throw a little here on the 7.5 on this Browns team just in case. It is no Lamar. And this does move by another three or four points. We talked the other day about how much better the Browns are at home than on the road. So I did do a little… Research on it. The Browns at home since the beginning of last season when we really started to notice this trend give up 20 points per game at home, 29 points per game on the road, so 30% less at home. They also give up 30% fewer rushing yards at home than on the road, 95 versus 139. They also give up like 10% fewer passing yards, but being at home does make a difference. you know we talk about all the time it could be the grass it's obviously there's nuances of playing at home the weather certainly makes a difference i also think like the noise those fans are still rabid and i think the dog pound matters i just do like that it makes a difference for that team and i think the fans know it um so i like the i like the browns they were chad's choice presented by hard rock bet speaking of let's do a quick message from our friends at Hard Rock Bet. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. It's that time of year when every day feels like a big game day. You've got pro football, college football, NBA, college hoops, hockey. It's all happening. And on Hard Rock Bet, there's always something to bet on. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet yet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. 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Customers will pay $25 a month as long as they remain active on the Boost Unlimited plan. Hi, it's Colin Coward from the Colin Coward Podcast. Every goal starts with an assist. As official partners of U.S. soccer, this team is ready to deliver. Sensodyne, dentist recommended defense of your sensitive teeth. Centrum, fueling your day with science-backed nutrients. Advil, of course, powerful inflammation-fighting pain relief. Voltaren Arthritis Gel, helps penetrate deep keeps the joints moving and Tums ready to counterattack with fast heartburn relief Learn how Halion can assist your game day goals at halionassist slash con This is Jeff T from the Club 520 podcast. Oh my goodness. Now this is a performance you do not want to miss. The Dell XPS powered by Intel Core Ultra. It's got the sauce. We're talking speed, style, stamina. Bam. And a long lasting battery life. Unheard of in this league. 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That's coverage that you can count on for every single round. So when the moment happens, you're not catching up. You're already there. Now that, that's a total power move. In the UFC, power isn't given. It's taken. So make your total power move today. Visit TotalWildless.com or stop by your neighborhood Total Wireless store. 5G access requires a 5G-capable device in a 5G service area. Monthly rates on the Total Base 5G Unlimited plan. For new subscribers, applies only to the monthly rate for your plan. Additional terms apply. See website for details. All right. Kansas City at Denver. Denver is now three and a half at Hard Rock. There's still a bunch of fours out there as well. This was almost, almost your Simon Says. we heard about it on sharp calls. J.K. Dobbins, probably not playing because of a foot injury. He may end up going on injury reserve. They've been very mum about it. Are you still there? Still on it. I'm definitely leaking a little confidence here because I thought this would be all pros on this Broncos team, but I just don't think guys trust Bo Nix. I don't think so either. Yeah, I mean, that's fair. He regressed in a lot of ways but I glad I saw a good Sean Payton stat that gives me a little confidence at least This is a good Sean Payton game where basically if his teams only convert one red zone trip in two consecutive games in his career they are 14 straight up in that third game 5-1 against the spread in his career. So take what you want from that. It really looks like it's the type of thing where he just gets his offenses to bounce back situationally. It's been a rough go. Like, I'll be the first to admit that Denver's game was atrocious. They should have won that game by 20 points or more. And just Bo Nix gave them nothing. And they didn't trust him. Like, they just were not letting them throw at certain points because they just did not trust him putting the ball downfield. So, you know, this is just an interesting spot. So just the fact that in the last decade, you know, Sean Payton's 7-0 in this spot with the Broncos. He's 2-0 straight up and against the spread in this exact spot where he's basically had a really struggling offense and they've bounced back in these games. So I don't know about you. It's just the Mahomes factor because Mahomes just, I looked at it, historically dominates the Broncos in these games. He's been just great divisionally on the road. But I just, I can't get to the fact how bad the Broncos have been his whole career. He's been on the Chiefs. So it's like, I know Bo Nix is no different than those quarterbacks. Maybe I'm overrating him still too much, but it just feels like a lot of points for this Chiefs team going against a really good defense where I have some questions still about this Chiefs defense. There's still some ways I think they have holes that teams have exploited. And the biggest one would be passing downfield against them. So I know. That's why I didn't make it to him because I didn't want to make people invest once again in this Broncos team. I have some other gross dogs I like better than this one, but I'm on it. I've taken a pretty large position on it at this point. But maybe I'll temper it as we head into the weekend. I won't be put too much in because just the thought of Bo Nix is making me sick. Yeah. I feel like every time Bo Nix starts, he's so amped up. he could throw the ball through a wall. And they missed so many opportunities in those first 15 scripted where Sean Payton and a lot of coaches are at their best. And it's usually calming for most quarterbacks. And Bo Nix looked like he's ready to jump out of the stadium. And I also worry this defense without Pat Sertain against the Chiefs, that's a different kind of test that they haven't really had since Sertain was out. And so it's a much more difficult proposition for them. We don't love betting Mahomes. as a favorite of more than three. I get it. I like Peyton in this spot. I get it. I agree with you. We should tell you, though, it is Chiefs off a bye, which we have in the past. We just automatically bet it. Right. It's true. I know. I'm not going to lie to you. I'm not bought in on Denver at all here. I have not bet. I know. Even the other day when, you know, it's at four and you're hammering it. Can I give you some defensive stats that might help a little? Okay, let's hear. Let's see. It's like I'm trying to find a reason there because I just – it's just this number. I just can't get over it. But defensively – Just give me a reason. Defensively, they have 40-plus sacks, and this season they're holding opponents on third down to less than 3% conversion rate. They're the only defense to do that since 1990 other than the $2,000. You remember that team, right? That deal. It's like – Covered that Super Bowl. Nice. Yeah, it was a sick one. I just – I look at this and I'm just – maybe I'm betting the defense here. like that Houston game. And I got to stop thinking about Bo Nix, but we're going to need him to make plays. That's the hardest part here. It's like, you're going to need him to show up. It's just brutal, brutal, brutal. So yeah, I don't know if I'm going to force him to be one of our fives this week, if I'm really going to be like, Chad, you got to make, got to take this one. If it was four and a half, I probably could have got you there. But like you said, the fours have come back down. The three and a half feels like it's going to be out. So I do like the Broncos, but there's other dogs I like better this week. Detroit at Philadelphia. you turned me around on this the other day. I bet the Eagles at two and a half. That is where the number is right now. It's not the best of the number, but it's still below three. I still liked it. I reran my model because you know I got a model. I worked on it during the off season with my intern from Harvard's stats department. Not even kidding. And I think if you can give me a good team that came off of a tight win against a good team that just had a big win, I'm still going to get value on the good team off of the tight win. So I started to come around on the Eagles. You're saying from the wise guys that it seemed like it was split, but you kind of had me buy into the Eagles the other day when I think I was starting to lean towards the Lions. Yeah, the hesitation I feel like is a lot of the wise guys are taking positions on the Lions because of all those crazy numbers and trends about golf in primetime at night and how good him and Campbell have been They like covering machines I think they like something like 25 minutes against the spread It just something insane in these night games And then you factor in a stat we give out early in the year, right? When they blow teams out, they cover at an insane rate. They're like a 70% cover rate after they win by seven points or more the following game. So we know all this. We know what we're walking into. This is a really good team, the Lions. Like we said, it's about the number. So still like it. I mean, we talked on Tuesday. There was a couple of one-and-a-halves out there. I feel like as soon as the show was posted, they were gone, right? That got immediately up to two-and-a-half of basically every book. Hard Rock was the last one, though. Hard Rock held at the two for a while, and they did eventually move to a three, and then immediately went down. So there is a ton of resistance at the three, I feel like, for professionals here. With the Lions, which I do get in, matchup-wise, like I said, I don't know if the books are accounting for how good this defensive line now is for this Eagles team with the upgrade to the position. Because for about four weeks there, we had just two or three guys. We had no rotation. So you saw last week having guys sub in and out. It's just fresh legs. It's such a huge deal with these defensive fronts, how hard these guys run and work. And the biggest thing, I guess, would be, well, Eagles are on a short week, right? They traveled, you know, from Green Bay to this game home, I guess. But to me, it's the same with the Lions. They were on the road against Washington. And historically, actually, golf isn't great on back-to-back road games that are both outdoors, which, again, I know it's stupid stats, but all the stats for him are really dominant indoors. Like, it's insane. So we've got to grasp the straws we can, people. He is a different and not as good outdoors. And matchup-wise, I just keep going back to this Eagles offense. As much as they've struggled, the Detroit team has so many injuries. Like this is the exact type of defense you'd want to face for an Eagles team that needs to get right. So I expect after a week filled with drama, I don't know if you saw all the A.J. Brown stuff once again, but – Oh, yeah. Basically it was for the first time honest, which felt good to hear what actually is going on rather than like these news reporters dictating how he's feeling through his Instagram, which is just – shows a level of sports media reporting right now if that's what we're going off of. Don't impugn the media. This isn about how bad the media is although if you watch social media boy they ask a lot of stupid questions in open locker rooms and press conferences Yeah there you go Chad So I just he basically said him and Jalen have no issues Jalen's playing well. He's doing what's being asked of him. He's got no problems with the OC. He's doing what's being asked of him. So that leaves one person he's got issues with, and that's a big deal. It's Sirianni. So we'll see what happens. Basically, it came out that him – Sirianni had a call in that fourth down play, And Hurts and AJ went rogue and just said, it's going to you no matter what. Go deep. So there's a ton of drama right now. You mean a couple weeks ago against the Bucs, was it? Is that what you're talking about? No, last week. Last week? I don't remember the play. It was fourth down for our lives. The Eagles should have either punted or kicked a field goal against Green Bay, and they went for it. You don't remember this? It was like fourth and 11 or something crazy. Maybe I went to bed at this point. Well, he took a deep shot to AJ, and it was incomplete, and they left basically 30 seconds left for a green bait and maybe tie with a field goal to end the game. So it was just people were like, what the hell? Why would Sierra and he called that play? And he basically was just like, I didn't call that. They checked out. So there is a ton of drama, and I get why people are freaking out about this Eagles team. But just look at the matchup on the field. I just love this matchup for this Eagles team. And the public's flying into it a little bit. Like you said, the Lions, they're getting all the money, all the tickets right now. They are heavily a public dog. and the line is moving against them. Like I said, it's hit three in a couple of books. So if it touches three come Sunday, I will feel much better about our Eagles position. That means some real pro money is coming again on the two and a half, which most people listening, that's what they're taking on. Because right now all the pro money came in on the one and a half. So love the Eagles here, but obviously like Chad said, we wish we gave out the best of the number. You know what one team I don't worry about when there's a lot of drama? Who? The Eagles. Philly justice. welcome to philly bitch there's always drama like there has been drama i think nick sirianni attracts the drama i think people wanna like him not like him i don't think he cares i think he says whatever is on his mind i think he likes to be partly trolling and enjoys it and i think the eagles have the kind of personality that the bears had in the 80s and the cowboys had in the 90s like they're just these teams where there's big personalities a huge amount of talent and there always going to be some kind of turmoil in that locker room and i don think it matters like i i just don like that it all noise to me and it fun what that sirianni he is john madden so they put up the stat the only other quarterback that more wins through the first five seasons in nfl history percentage wise john madden and i thought about that comparison it feels so right that man joined a team of crazy drama Raiders team just ahead cases and no one took him serious for about five years even though he was leading the league in win percentage so I I'm one of those people I hated Sirianni I just hate the way he handled the media that way he talks to the fans all that but all he does is win and you got to respect it and like you said he he seems like he thrives when there's tons of in-house drama so you're right maybe I'm overreacting too much I just there's so much affiliate right now I can't can't get over how bad it is yeah I mean you're you're in the middle of the white noise you can't get away from it whereas like I'm just seeing it as funny and it's the same story every single week and every single year with this team and this team honestly I know they're not being nearly as effective but there's something about their lack of effectiveness that to me I'm only watching Jalen Hurts and Jalen Hurts when he's on the field doesn't seem bothered by the lack of effectiveness he has in the past this year it seems like the lack of effectiveness is almost by choice where he's just making the right calls and doing the right things and doing what needs to be won and not trying to do things to make sort of dramatic plays for lack of a better term and so i'm only watching him and he's just he's unbothered it's fair but like last year i had a sneaky i mean i guess it was thinking because i gave him out heading the year but i was just all in on that eagles team to win super bowl where this year i just have so many questions where last year i did not like i had one big question it was about that defense and after the bye week they got it right the eagles after their bye week the defense looked amazing but the offense left left a lot to the imagination so yeah this is uh like i said this is a perfect spot for this eagles offense to get right against a banged up lines defense let's talk about that crazy las vegas raiders plus three and a half simon says against the dallas cowboys on monday night uh you gotta want this you gotta you really gotta want it explain yourself simon hunter on the las vegas raiders i still love it um the the pushback i got The pros I have talked about this one is that Cowboys did get people back to their defense that are coming off injured reserve. And, you know, could that be a big upgrade for them? Sure. But my argument to them is it's like trying to fix a hole in a sinking ship with a truly a bandaid like there. They have so many issues. Their top corner bland has no legs anymore. He has no speed, like something that made him so special from just having a couple injuries. He's lost it. So I just love this match with this Raiders offense wise. I just think this is the perfect team to match up for them. And defensively, you know, you've seen the Cowboys have struggled this year. It's when they're facing against a good pass rush. So to me, Max Crosby, you know, I don't want to give too much credence to podcast people, but because, you know, every week I'm sure he might go on his podcast and stay himself. But I saw this week he's basically playing all these clips from people in the media, trashing him, saying how bad he's been and how that loss was on him like he did nothing in that Denver game, and they can't stop the run, everything like that. And I just love that type of thing for him where he's just going to be a mental case in this game. So it's shocking to me that there's no pros on this Raiders team yet. But like I said, maybe Sunday morning, I'll have more guys join me. But it's just because it's the Monday game, I feel like it's either been, from the pro side at least, they're taking the Cowboys or nothing at all at this point. All right. We got a lot to discuss. Well, you got a couple games you missed that I like. oh tell me what i miss what were we at with this panthers team i told you i got a lot of calls about it you know what's funny um are we missing it here i wonder if we are too i was actually just scrolling through because i was looking ahead to our underdog parlay and the panthers jumped out as a team that we would want to put in as the underdog parlay and obviously i've got trepidation because of what's happened with Bryce Young the past couple weeks. He just hasn't looked good. But I do think there's much more systemic issues with the Falcons than with the Panthers. To be catching three and a half, I feel like we both agree on that. Yeah. For a Falcons team that has so many issues. Speaking of social media, there was a clip the other day, I think I saw it yesterday, on the X platform where Michael Penix was asked about, you know who he leans on for support when things aren going well and who gives him advice He talked about his fiance and his high school coach The people he didn mention in his ears sort of that are helping coach him up, Raheem Morris and Zach Robinson, his offensive coordinator and his head coach. And I do think we're seeing some of this on the field where his performance has not been where it should be, but how much of that is on the coaching and how much of that is on the play calling so i do think that there's probably for lack of a better term better vibes in carolina i just don't know i guess i guess at the hook yeah we're taking carolina that's really what it is yeah and we didn't even talk about which was a mistake on my part atlanta is coming off an overtime game in an international this has never happened in the history of football usually it's happened five times all those teams had bye weeks it's the first time ever a team has played an overtime game internationally and come home to play the game. So there's that part of it. And, you know, the Penix part, you know, like we said, it's just inconsistent. And that's a lot of points for him to be catching in a divisional matchup where the Panthers have surprisingly owned the Falcons these last few times they've played. So, yeah, I just want to make sure I brought this one up. I just don't want people to be shocked if we do end up taking this one on Sunday. It's a game I'm bent into. I like the Panthers here, and it definitely was a miss on my part. I should have trusted my model, which had a two and a half. I just – I couldn't get what the books are doing. You're hanging this number. But I do think this comes down to three as more professionals come in and bet the Spanthers side. All right. I'm into that. I'm into that because to be honest, I think we were struggling to find five that we loved, not even like agreed on, just like five games that we were really in love with. So I could see that. And then before we go, I'm just going to throw out two games. Just line moving while we're doing the show live. Tampa has moved to plus six at a couple books. Jesus. So, yep, that's happening as we speak. And the Bears are shifting to two and a half. So we've talked about it a little bit. We both – I feel like we're trying not to, but we both are liking on the Bears at plus three. That's just – And this was at three and a half. This was at three and a half, by the way, last night. So to me it's about the number – We don't know because we're doing the show right now, but it's two and a half everywhere now. I do not like the Bears at two and a half. No, no, no, no. I like Vikings. I bringing it up for people If they want to grab the Bears I grab the three if you can before it moves That game was at three and a half All right Well the Vikings at two and a half might be an interesting play on Sunday Okay. I keep thinking about the Bears keep coming back against really bad teams. Well, Caleb against the NFC North, right? Can I invest in J.J. McCarthy? You know, that's just tricky. It's a really tricky one. Caleb was the one in his career, right, against NFC North? and it was like carolina all right so let's let's take a pause here for a sec because i want to recap cincinnati plus five and a half is a game we're both going to be on houston minus six and a half the bucks are now a plus six that's scary i'm glad we really haven't bet that we know we like the rams plus three we know we like minus three i mean minus three we know we like cleveland uh plus seven and a half plus eight plus eight and a half um we think we like philly”
LAR 21, SEA 19 — Rams beat Seahawks 21-19; Los Angeles' 2-point margin fell short of the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Still lucky at plus 7.5, as long as it's above the 7. Rams, keep hitting it. I got tons on 2.5, a ton on minus 3. If it gets a minus 3.5, I'm not going to be that invested into it. It's all about the number here. So if it stays on the 3, I really think that'll be one of my bigger bets come Sunday”
LAR 21, SEA 19 — Rams beat Seahawks 21-19; Los Angeles' 2-point margin fell short of the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Next time. We'll get to that one next time. Baltimore at Cleveland. This one was Chad's choice when it was eight and a half.”
BAL 23, CLE 16 — Ravens beat Browns 23-16; Cleveland's 7-point loss stayed within the +8.5 spread, a cover (ESPN box score).
“the San Francisco 49ers are at Arizona. Arizona is a three-point dog. We liked Arizona on Tuesday. It was at two and a half. We wanted it to get to three. It did get to three. I don't know about you. I bet it at three. Marvin Harrison Jr. is out with an appendectomy. I don't think that matters to me.”
SF 41, ARI 22 — 49ers beat Cardinals 41-22; Arizona's 19-point loss busted the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“the San Francisco 49ers are at Arizona. Arizona is a three-point dog. We liked Arizona on Tuesday. It was at two and a half. We wanted it to get to three. It did get to three. I don't know about you. I bet it at three. Marvin Harrison Jr. is out with an appendectomy. I don't think that matters to me. To me, this is about Jacoby Brissett and Trey McBride, and we're just talking about tight ends and a Niners defense that cannot rush the passer right now and has at the center of its defense a new signal caller replacing Fred Warner who played well but it still different when you playing against an all tight end caliber tight end like Trey McBride Yeah, I'm with you on the Cardinals. It's another game, though, just like a Jags where I'm just betting this number. I don't really feel that great about it. So you might have more opinions on this one than me. I simply just took this number.”
SF 41, ARI 22 — 49ers beat Cardinals 41-22; Arizona's 19-point loss busted the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Give me Panthers plus three and a half.”
CAR 30, ATL 27 — Panthers beat Falcons 30-27 in overtime; Carolina's outright win covered the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“But I do think there's much more systemic issues with the Falcons than with the Panthers. To be catching three and a half, I feel like we both agree on that. Yeah. For a Falcons team that has so many issues. Speaking of social media, there was a clip the other day, I think I saw it yesterday, on the X platform where Michael Penix was asked about, you know who he leans on for support when things aren going well and who gives him advice He talked about his fiance and his high school coach The people he didn mention in his ears sort of that are helping coach him up, Raheem Morris and Zach Robinson, his offensive coordinator and his head coach. And I do think we're seeing some of this on the field where his performance has not been where it should be, but how much of that is on the coaching and how much of that is on the play calling so i do think that there's probably for lack of a better term better vibes in carolina i just don't know i guess i guess at the hook yeah we're taking carolina that's really what it is yeah and we didn't even talk about which was a mistake on my part atlanta is coming off an overtime game in an international this has never happened in the history of football usually it's happened five times all those teams had bye weeks it's the first time ever a team has played an overtime game internationally and come home to play the game. So there's that part of it. And, you know, the Penix part, you know, like we said, it's just inconsistent. And that's a lot of points for him to be catching in a divisional matchup where the Panthers have surprisingly owned the Falcons these last few times they've played. So, yeah, I just want to make sure I brought this one up. I just don't want people to be shocked if we do end up taking this one on Sunday. It's a game I'm bent into. I like the Panthers here, and it definitely was a miss on my part. I should have trusted my model, which had a two and a half. I just – I couldn't get what the books are doing. You're hanging this number. But I do think this comes down to three as more professionals come in and bet the Spanthers side.”
CAR 30, ATL 27 — Panthers beat Falcons 30-27 in overtime; Carolina's outright win covered the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Simon, I want to talk about the Green Bay Packers as seven point favorites at the New York Giants. Because on Tuesday, we talked about the Packers and you had a slight lean to the Packers. I was wondering why, like, we would even try to make a decision. We didn't know who was going to be quarterback. Now we know. The famous Jameis Winston is starting for the Giants on Sunday. Russell Wilson has been demoted to third string, and Russell Wilson is now doing videos on Cameo. He's made $300 million in his career doing videos on Cameo. Yesterday at his press conference as the number one quarterback, his QB1, Jameis Winston gave a virtuoso performance, including a Broadway musical interlude. Matt Mitchell roll it I want fans to know that I going to do my best You know obviously I going to have fun but I going to execute have a surgical execution and just play ball man Like this is something I've been doing since I've been four years old. I just get to do it in the greatest city in the world. I'm going to be saying it with my son. It's the greatest city in the world. Yeah, that's a Hamilton reference, if y'all don't know. A 10-year reunion. Yeah. I mean, come on. him acknowledging Hamilton's 10 year, 10 year anniversary. He's a legend. He's a legend. It's like Jameis is everything you love about betting. You and I talk about this all the time. You love the rollercoaster of betting. I love knowing that I've got the win in the first quarter and then relaxing the rest of the day. I want to be right. I don't want the emotion. You want the emotion. james is your type of qb dude it's like all the betting how do you not put in a small taste on james he is the full experience on sunday the oh no throws the oh yes throws the holy shit throws simon james a little taste come on yeah the biggest sin in life is that james is not like a top five quarterback in this league it just for he has so much personality we just don't get from quarterbacks right most quarterbacks are just robots which they should be right they're protecting their brand they don't want to say anything that gets put on the you know the board and used against them blah blah blah but Jameis is just so free and just not negative and just good vibes like he never says the wrong things even when he's talking crazy it's it's great like You never know where you're going to go with it. I just thought this was a Green Bay spot. We've talked this year. This Green Bay team, they're on a historical run. I think the first team in 20 years to be 0-5 as a seven-point favorite against the spread. They've yet to cover the season as a seven-point favorite. The public's on. The Giants, the pros are joining them. This is going to be a huge, huge bet. all the teachers, all the money line parlays of this Packers team. Because everyone's like me. I can't see the Packers losing three games in a row. Maybe I'll just avoid it now because, like you said, Jameis can either lose this game by 30 or win this game outright. If he has one of his days, pass on the ball. Such a wild card. I don't know if he has a weapons, Chad. In other places where he's done stuff, he's actually... He had guys on the outside that can make plays. He does not have that in this scenario. And he's going against a really good defensive front. So I'm still on the Packers, but I get it.”
GB 27, NYG 20 — Packers beat Giants 27-20; Green Bay's exact 7-point margin matched the -7 spread, a push (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Eagles at two and a half.”
PHI 16, DET 9 — Eagles beat Lions 16-9; Philadelphia's 7-point win covered the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“But I do think there's much more systemic issues with the Falcons than with the Panthers. To be catching three and a half, I feel like we both agree on that. Yeah. For a Falcons team that has so many issues. Speaking of social media, there was a clip the other day, I think I saw it yesterday, on the X platform where Michael Penix was asked about, you know who he leans on for support when things aren going well and who gives him advice He talked about his fiance and his high school coach The people he didn mention in his ears sort of that are helping coach him up, Raheem Morris and Zach Robinson, his offensive coordinator and his head coach. And I do think we're seeing some of this on the field where his performance has not been where it should be, but how much of that is on the coaching and how much of that is on the play calling so i do think that there's probably for lack of a better term better vibes in carolina i just don't know i guess i guess at the hook yeah we're taking carolina that's really what it is yeah and we didn't even talk about which was a mistake on my part atlanta is coming off an overtime game in an international this has never happened in the history of football usually it's happened five times all those teams had bye weeks it's the first time ever a team has played an overtime game internationally and come home to play the game. So there's that part of it. And, you know, the Penix part, you know, like we said, it's just inconsistent. And that's a lot of points for him to be catching in a divisional matchup where the Panthers have surprisingly owned the Falcons these last few times they've played. So, yeah, I just want to make sure I brought this one up. I just don't want people to be shocked if we do end up taking this one on Sunday. It's a game I'm bent into. I like the Panthers here, and it definitely was a miss on my part. I should have trusted my model, which had a two and a half. I just – I couldn't get what the books are doing. You're hanging this number. But I do think this comes down to three as more professionals come in and bet the Spanthers side. All right. I'm into that. I'm into that because to be honest, I think we were struggling to find five that we loved, not even like agreed on, just like five games that we were really in love with. So I could see that. And then before we go, I'm just going to throw out two games. Just line moving while we're doing the show live. Tampa has moved to plus six at a couple books. Jesus. So, yep, that's happening as we speak. And the Bears are shifting to two and a half. So we've talked about it a little bit. We both – I feel like we're trying not to, but we both are liking on the Bears at plus three. That's just – And this was at three and a half. This was at three and a half, by the way, last night. So to me it's about the number – We don't know because we're doing the show right now, but it's two and a half everywhere now. I do not like the Bears at two and a half. No, no, no, no. I like Vikings. I bringing it up for people If they want to grab the Bears I grab the three if you can before it moves That game was at three and a half All right Well the Vikings at two and a half might be an interesting play on Sunday Okay. I keep thinking about the Bears keep coming back against really bad teams. Well, Caleb against the NFC North, right? Can I invest in J.J. McCarthy? You know, that's just tricky. It's a really tricky one. Caleb was the one in his career, right, against NFC North? and it was like carolina all right so let's let's take a pause here for a sec because i want to recap cincinnati plus five and a half is a game we're both going to be on houston minus six and a half the bucks are now a plus six that's scary i'm glad we really haven't bet that we know we like the rams plus three we know we like minus three i mean minus three we know we like cleveland uh plus seven and a half plus eight plus eight and a half um we think we like philly minus two and a half. I don't love the Raiders, but I do like the Panthers a lot. I get it. The Raiders are tough, man. It's tough. Raiders are tough. You got to bet it. You got to keep fading this Dallas team as a big favorites. It's been profitable this year, fading them. So we got some decisions to make on Sunday. Give me your biggest bets right now. It sounds like Panthers might actually be in there. Pull up those pants and be a man. They're getting there. Honestly, I really took a heavy position on Cleveland like we talked about. I really thought, not that that number was going to come steaming down because of what we were talking about, but got very lucky that I bet it before all the Lamar news. Still lucky at plus 7.5, as long as it's above the 7. Rams, keep hitting it. I got tons on 2.5, a ton on minus 3. If it gets a minus 3.5, I'm not going to be that invested into it. It's all about the number here. So if it stays on the 3, I really think that'll be one of my bigger bets come Sunday I'm probably going to get there probably going to get there on this Eagles team I just right now I haven't taken too big of a position but it's just that I thought the one and a half would pop again so I'm going to try to be patient on that one but it seems like it keeps getting to the three it's not going the way I want it to so I might just have to suck it up and just take the two and a half on this Eagles team Alright let's do a three team parlay for underdogs i would do carolina mm gotta do cincy cincinnati yep that was on my list Plus 200 Should we do Cardinals Well, we didn't talk about the Cardinals. No, we did briefly. I know. I'm not crazy about it, but it's either them or the Jags. These are good home dogs. Let's do the Cardinals. All right. So three-team parlay, Carolina, Arizona, and Cincinnati.”
Parlay busts: Panthers beat Falcons 30-27 in OT (covers +3.5, won); Cardinals lost 41-22 to the 49ers (busts +3, lost); Bengals lost 34-12 to the Steelers (busts +5.5, lost). Two of three legs failed, so the parlay loses (ESPN box scores).
“the San Francisco 49ers are at Arizona. Arizona is a three-point dog. We liked Arizona on Tuesday. It was at two and a half. We wanted it to get to three. It did get to three. I don't know about you. I bet it at three. Marvin Harrison Jr. is out with an appendectomy. I don't think that matters to me. To me, this is about Jacoby Brissett and Trey McBride, and we're just talking about tight ends and a Niners defense that cannot rush the passer right now and has at the center of its defense a new signal caller replacing Fred Warner who played well but it still different when you playing against an all tight end caliber tight end like Trey McBride Yeah, I'm with you on the Cardinals. It's another game, though, just like a Jags where I'm just betting this number. I don't really feel that great about it. So you might have more opinions on this one than me. I simply just took this number. Obviously, Harris News sucks. As much as you want to downplay it, he is their number one. He's a big, big target who, with Bursette, seemed like he's been playing pretty well. So not ideal. But like you said, we're just playing the number here in the matchup. And I just can't have this 49ers team catching more than three points against anybody, let alone a divisional foe that can move the ball offensively. Like you said, train wreck start to that game against Seattle. They fought, played well throughout the game, and moved the ball pretty well. So it's a good number, but, man, is this a gross game. Do you want to hear my appendectomy story? Not really. The story is about how I was trying to close the NFL preview at ESPN the magazine, and I wasn't feeling well. Oh, no. And for two days, I stayed in the office, barely leaving, because my boss at the time, it was the first NFL preview we were ever closing. and my boss was like, she was like, you don't look good but we really need you. You're running this issue. We need you to be here to close it. I am like under my desk. I had to be removed and taken by ambulance to the hospital for an emergency appendectomy which I stayed in the hospital for 10 days after. Did you not know this? Yeah, because I was closing the NFL preview for ESPN the Magazine in 1998 But here's the kicker. Here's the kicker. After the surgery, we had like our reviews and my boss at the time, who I ended up quitting ESPN the magazine because I just could not stand her. She was one of the worst people I've ever worked with. Still to this day, horrible boss, stole every idea, would not give me any help with assignments, did not try to grow me in any particular way. in my review that year she gave me the equivalent of a check minus in Disney grading rules for attendance essentially at work And I like what do you mean She goes, well, you know, you were gone for two weeks in June. I'm like, that was my honeymoon? I just started four weeks earlier and everyone knew I was getting married. She's like, and then there was that time like in September where you were gone for like two and a half weeks. I'm like when an ambulance came and took me out because I had an emergency appendectomy the point of the story Simon I played through it did you I don't know, it seems like the appendix won I closed the issue it put you down for 10 days I closed the issue, the point was I closed the issue I had a buddy with basically the same thing, but unlike you he was it was college he was boozing drinking he goes i think something's wrong is the same thing where it's like right down like above the crotch like below the stomach kind of yeah yeah yeah yeah so basically same thing as you were you probably had like a sharp pain in that area yeah and he can't he basically couldn't stand up right apart he says he can't stand up he's in so much pain and i go dude you should go to a hospital if you're in that much pain he goes but i feel fine sitting here it's just when i stand up i can't stand up and i basically a buddy put him on his shoulder and carried him down the street to a local doctor that took him to the hospital. It doesn't sound like he was so committed to his job. He stayed at the office for two days in agony to close the NFL preview issue. We haven't even really talked about the time that I wrote a cover story for ESPN the magazine after I had broken my back in a cab accident. Next time. We'll get to that one next time. Baltimore at Cleveland. This one was Chad's choice when it was eight and a half. The number at Hard Rock is now down to seven and a half. You mentioned there's some lingering news or news about a knee issue with Lamar Jackson, but we were all over this before. I'm glad to hear that the Wise Guys are into it too. Give me some feedback on what they were telling you. I have some thoughts on a very specific point that you and I discussed about this game the other day, but tell me what the Wise Guys were telling you and how you're feeling about this 48 hours later. Well, like I said, it feels like, not that we lucked into it, but it's just a spot we both loved. I feel like most of them knew something was up with Lamar, that he was a little banged up from that game and they were taking a position on it because their view of it if you already getting a bang up with Lamar and he he does play you handicapping him because he not gonna have the same rushing ability against one of the best defensive lines in all football so um the early line move has a shock me i'm shocked though it has stuck at seven and a half i thought this would be just like that houston tennessee line where the books would hedge a little bit right move it down to seven maybe six and a half just in case Lamar is out in this game so they must must be pretty positive confident that Lamar does play which I don't know how you can trust the Ravens right now like I I just anything Harbaugh says to me is just I don't believe any of it now like I'll believe it come Friday practice if he's with the first team and you know that's reported by reporters not the team itself so yeah it's um I'm so glad we got the early line on Cleveland but it's it's a tough game to try to handicap now because we really don't know if it's obviously if it's not Lamar I mean we're elated I would tell people to bet it now if you really think that but I do think Lamar plays I just he's such a competitor he's missed so much time I just unless he's really really banged up and he can't move I can't see him missing this one but for us I wanted to play like a banged up Lamar I mean it's it's a great great matchup for Myles Garrett and the boys and um just dive into this game more we talked a little bit about it it's I'm not putting so much faith in Dylan Gabriel I still think he's got issues I do think this Cleveland team better run the ball against this Ravens team I don't think has fixed all of their issues so yep still love the number still love the matchup um it's just what will this number end up being hopefully people grab the eight and a half when you gave it out how do you feel about betting it at seven and a half I still bet it just because it's just the unknown a little more I'm just I don't want people to go too crazy because he does come back this will definitely get back to eight I think eight and a half unless the professionals really keep this down um i can't say it happens just gonna be so much public money on this ravens team they're just one of the most beloved teams of football right now especially by the betting public they've just exactly what everyone predicted to happen with them has happened lamar even before he came back even the backup they've won it covered it feels like three games in a row here and they've totally flipped that division with a losing record they're the big odds on favor to win that division so um it's just i don't want people to invest too much here into this number just in case he does come back. But how can you not throw a little on if you did miss 8.5? Throw a little here on the 7.5 on this Browns team just in case. It is no Lamar. And this does move by another three or four points. We talked the other day about how much better the Browns are at home than on the road. So I did do a little… Research on it. The Browns at home since the beginning of last season when we really started to notice this trend give up 20 points per game at home, 29 points per game on the road, so 30% less at home. They also give up 30% fewer rushing yards at home than on the road, 95 versus 139. They also give up like 10% fewer passing yards, but being at home does make a difference. you know we talk about all the time it could be the grass it's obviously there's nuances of playing at home the weather certainly makes a difference i also think like the noise those fans are still rabid and i think the dog pound matters i just do like that it makes a difference for that team and i think the fans know it um so i like the i like the browns they were chad's choice presented by hard rock bet speaking of let's do a quick message from our friends at Hard Rock Bet. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. It's that time of year when every day feels like a big game day. You've got pro football, college football, NBA, college hoops, hockey. It's all happening. And on Hard Rock Bet, there's always something to bet on. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet yet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. 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Customers will pay $25 a month as long as they remain active on the Boost Unlimited plan. Hi, it's Colin Coward from the Colin Coward Podcast. Every goal starts with an assist. As official partners of U.S. soccer, this team is ready to deliver. Sensodyne, dentist recommended defense of your sensitive teeth. Centrum, fueling your day with science-backed nutrients. Advil, of course, powerful inflammation-fighting pain relief. Voltaren Arthritis Gel, helps penetrate deep keeps the joints moving and Tums ready to counterattack with fast heartburn relief Learn how Halion can assist your game day goals at halionassist slash con This is Jeff T from the Club 520 podcast. Oh my goodness. Now this is a performance you do not want to miss. The Dell XPS powered by Intel Core Ultra. It's got the sauce. We're talking speed, style, stamina. Bam. And a long lasting battery life. Unheard of in this league. 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That's coverage that you can count on for every single round. So when the moment happens, you're not catching up. You're already there. Now that, that's a total power move. In the UFC, power isn't given. It's taken. So make your total power move today. Visit TotalWildless.com or stop by your neighborhood Total Wireless store. 5G access requires a 5G-capable device in a 5G service area. Monthly rates on the Total Base 5G Unlimited plan. For new subscribers, applies only to the monthly rate for your plan. Additional terms apply. See website for details. All right. Kansas City at Denver. Denver is now three and a half at Hard Rock. There's still a bunch of fours out there as well. This was almost, almost your Simon Says. we heard about it on sharp calls. J.K. Dobbins, probably not playing because of a foot injury. He may end up going on injury reserve. They've been very mum about it. Are you still there? Still on it. I'm definitely leaking a little confidence here because I thought this would be all pros on this Broncos team, but I just don't think guys trust Bo Nix. I don't think so either. Yeah, I mean, that's fair. He regressed in a lot of ways but I glad I saw a good Sean Payton stat that gives me a little confidence at least This is a good Sean Payton game where basically if his teams only convert one red zone trip in two consecutive games in his career they are 14 straight up in that third game 5-1 against the spread in his career. So take what you want from that. It really looks like it's the type of thing where he just gets his offenses to bounce back situationally. It's been a rough go. Like, I'll be the first to admit that Denver's game was atrocious. They should have won that game by 20 points or more. And just Bo Nix gave them nothing. And they didn't trust him. Like, they just were not letting them throw at certain points because they just did not trust him putting the ball downfield. So, you know, this is just an interesting spot. So just the fact that in the last decade, you know, Sean Payton's 7-0 in this spot with the Broncos. He's 2-0 straight up and against the spread in this exact spot where he's basically had a really struggling offense and they've bounced back in these games. So I don't know about you. It's just the Mahomes factor because Mahomes just, I looked at it, historically dominates the Broncos in these games. He's been just great divisionally on the road. But I just, I can't get to the fact how bad the Broncos have been his whole career. He's been on the Chiefs. So it's like, I know Bo Nix is no different than those quarterbacks. Maybe I'm overrating him still too much, but it just feels like a lot of points for this Chiefs team going against a really good defense where I have some questions still about this Chiefs defense. There's still some ways I think they have holes that teams have exploited. And the biggest one would be passing downfield against them. So I know. That's why I didn't make it to him because I didn't want to make people invest once again in this Broncos team. I have some other gross dogs I like better than this one, but I'm on it. I've taken a pretty large position on it at this point. But maybe I'll temper it as we head into the weekend. I won't be put too much in because just the thought of Bo Nix is making me sick. Yeah. I feel like every time Bo Nix starts, he's so amped up. he could throw the ball through a wall. And they missed so many opportunities in those first 15 scripted where Sean Payton and a lot of coaches are at their best. And it's usually calming for most quarterbacks. And Bo Nix looked like he's ready to jump out of the stadium. And I also worry this defense without Pat Sertain against the Chiefs, that's a different kind of test that they haven't really had since Sertain was out. And so it's a much more difficult proposition for them. We don't love betting Mahomes. as a favorite of more than three. I get it. I like Peyton in this spot. I get it. I agree with you. We should tell you, though, it is Chiefs off a bye, which we have in the past. We just automatically bet it. Right. It's true. I know. I'm not going to lie to you. I'm not bought in on Denver at all here. I have not bet. I know. Even the other day when, you know, it's at four and you're hammering it. Can I give you some defensive stats that might help a little? Okay, let's hear. Let's see. It's like I'm trying to find a reason there because I just – it's just this number. I just can't get over it. But defensively – Just give me a reason. Defensively, they have 40-plus sacks, and this season they're holding opponents on third down to less than 3% conversion rate. They're the only defense to do that since 1990 other than the $2,000. You remember that team, right? That deal. It's like – Covered that Super Bowl. Nice. Yeah, it was a sick one. I just – I look at this and I'm just – maybe I'm betting the defense here. like that Houston game. And I got to stop thinking about Bo Nix, but we're going to need him to make plays. That's the hardest part here. It's like, you're going to need him to show up. It's just brutal, brutal, brutal. So yeah, I don't know if I'm going to force him to be one of our fives this week, if I'm really going to be like, Chad, you got to make, got to take this one. If it was four and a half, I probably could have got you there. But like you said, the fours have come back down. The three and a half feels like it's going to be out. So I do like the Broncos, but there's other dogs I like better this week. Detroit at Philadelphia. you turned me around on this the other day. I bet the Eagles at two and a half. That is where the number is right now. It's not the best of the number, but it's still below three. I still liked it. I reran my model because you know I got a model. I worked on it during the off season with my intern from Harvard's stats department. Not even kidding. And I think if you can give me a good team that came off of a tight win against a good team that just had a big win, I'm still going to get value on the good team off of the tight win. So I started to come around on the Eagles. You're saying from the wise guys that it seemed like it was split, but you kind of had me buy into the Eagles the other day when I think I was starting to lean towards the Lions. Yeah, the hesitation I feel like is a lot of the wise guys are taking positions on the Lions because of all those crazy numbers and trends about golf in primetime at night and how good him and Campbell have been They like covering machines I think they like something like 25 minutes against the spread It just something insane in these night games And then you factor in a stat we give out early in the year, right? When they blow teams out, they cover at an insane rate. They're like a 70% cover rate after they win by seven points or more the following game. So we know all this. We know what we're walking into. This is a really good team, the Lions. Like we said, it's about the number. So still like it. I mean, we talked on Tuesday. There was a couple of one-and-a-halves out there. I feel like as soon as the show was posted, they were gone, right? That got immediately up to two-and-a-half of basically every book. Hard Rock was the last one, though. Hard Rock held at the two for a while, and they did eventually move to a three, and then immediately went down. So there is a ton of resistance at the three, I feel like, for professionals here. With the Lions, which I do get in, matchup-wise, like I said, I don't know if the books are accounting for how good this defensive line now is for this Eagles team with the upgrade to the position. Because for about four weeks there, we had just two or three guys. We had no rotation. So you saw last week having guys sub in and out. It's just fresh legs. It's such a huge deal with these defensive fronts, how hard these guys run and work. And the biggest thing, I guess, would be, well, Eagles are on a short week, right? They traveled, you know, from Green Bay to this game home, I guess. But to me, it's the same with the Lions. They were on the road against Washington. And historically, actually, golf isn't great on back-to-back road games that are both outdoors, which, again, I know it's stupid stats, but all the stats for him are really dominant indoors. Like, it's insane. So we've got to grasp the straws we can, people. He is a different and not as good outdoors. And matchup-wise, I just keep going back to this Eagles offense. As much as they've struggled, the Detroit team has so many injuries. Like this is the exact type of defense you'd want to face for an Eagles team that needs to get right. So I expect after a week filled with drama, I don't know if you saw all the A.J. Brown stuff once again, but – Oh, yeah. Basically it was for the first time honest, which felt good to hear what actually is going on rather than like these news reporters dictating how he's feeling through his Instagram, which is just – shows a level of sports media reporting right now if that's what we're going off of. Don't impugn the media. This isn about how bad the media is although if you watch social media boy they ask a lot of stupid questions in open locker rooms and press conferences Yeah there you go Chad So I just he basically said him and Jalen have no issues Jalen's playing well. He's doing what's being asked of him. He's got no problems with the OC. He's doing what's being asked of him. So that leaves one person he's got issues with, and that's a big deal. It's Sirianni. So we'll see what happens. Basically, it came out that him – Sirianni had a call in that fourth down play, And Hurts and AJ went rogue and just said, it's going to you no matter what. Go deep. So there's a ton of drama right now. You mean a couple weeks ago against the Bucs, was it? Is that what you're talking about? No, last week. Last week? I don't remember the play. It was fourth down for our lives. The Eagles should have either punted or kicked a field goal against Green Bay, and they went for it. You don't remember this? It was like fourth and 11 or something crazy. Maybe I went to bed at this point. Well, he took a deep shot to AJ, and it was incomplete, and they left basically 30 seconds left for a green bait and maybe tie with a field goal to end the game. So it was just people were like, what the hell? Why would Sierra and he called that play? And he basically was just like, I didn't call that. They checked out. So there is a ton of drama, and I get why people are freaking out about this Eagles team. But just look at the matchup on the field. I just love this matchup for this Eagles team. And the public's flying into it a little bit. Like you said, the Lions, they're getting all the money, all the tickets right now. They are heavily a public dog. and the line is moving against them. Like I said, it's hit three in a couple of books. So if it touches three come Sunday, I will feel much better about our Eagles position. That means some real pro money is coming again on the two and a half, which most people listening, that's what they're taking on. Because right now all the pro money came in on the one and a half. So love the Eagles here, but obviously like Chad said, we wish we gave out the best of the number. You know what one team I don't worry about when there's a lot of drama? Who? The Eagles. Philly justice. welcome to philly bitch there's always drama like there has been drama i think nick sirianni attracts the drama i think people wanna like him not like him i don't think he cares i think he says whatever is on his mind i think he likes to be partly trolling and enjoys it and i think the eagles have the kind of personality that the bears had in the 80s and the cowboys had in the 90s like they're just these teams where there's big personalities a huge amount of talent and there always going to be some kind of turmoil in that locker room and i don think it matters like i i just don like that it all noise to me and it fun what that sirianni he is john madden so they put up the stat the only other quarterback that more wins through the first five seasons in nfl history percentage wise john madden and i thought about that comparison it feels so right that man joined a team of crazy drama Raiders team just ahead cases and no one took him serious for about five years even though he was leading the league in win percentage so I I'm one of those people I hated Sirianni I just hate the way he handled the media that way he talks to the fans all that but all he does is win and you got to respect it and like you said he he seems like he thrives when there's tons of in-house drama so you're right maybe I'm overreacting too much I just there's so much affiliate right now I can't can't get over how bad it is yeah I mean you're you're in the middle of the white noise you can't get away from it whereas like I'm just seeing it as funny and it's the same story every single week and every single year with this team and this team honestly I know they're not being nearly as effective but there's something about their lack of effectiveness that to me I'm only watching Jalen Hurts and Jalen Hurts when he's on the field doesn't seem bothered by the lack of effectiveness he has in the past this year it seems like the lack of effectiveness is almost by choice where he's just making the right calls and doing the right things and doing what needs to be won and not trying to do things to make sort of dramatic plays for lack of a better term and so i'm only watching him and he's just he's unbothered it's fair but like last year i had a sneaky i mean i guess it was thinking because i gave him out heading the year but i was just all in on that eagles team to win super bowl where this year i just have so many questions where last year i did not like i had one big question it was about that defense and after the bye week they got it right the eagles after their bye week the defense looked amazing but the offense left left a lot to the imagination so yeah this is uh like i said this is a perfect spot for this eagles offense to get right against a banged up lines defense let's talk about that crazy las vegas raiders plus three and a half simon says against the dallas cowboys on monday night uh you gotta want this you gotta you really gotta want it explain yourself simon hunter on the las vegas raiders i still love it um the the pushback i got The pros I have talked about this one is that Cowboys did get people back to their defense that are coming off injured reserve. And, you know, could that be a big upgrade for them? Sure. But my argument to them is it's like trying to fix a hole in a sinking ship with a truly a bandaid like there. They have so many issues. Their top corner bland has no legs anymore. He has no speed, like something that made him so special from just having a couple injuries. He's lost it. So I just love this match with this Raiders offense wise. I just think this is the perfect team to match up for them. And defensively, you know, you've seen the Cowboys have struggled this year. It's when they're facing against a good pass rush. So to me, Max Crosby, you know, I don't want to give too much credence to podcast people, but because, you know, every week I'm sure he might go on his podcast and stay himself. But I saw this week he's basically playing all these clips from people in the media, trashing him, saying how bad he's been and how that loss was on him like he did nothing in that Denver game, and they can't stop the run, everything like that. And I just love that type of thing for him where he's just going to be a mental case in this game. So it's shocking to me that there's no pros on this Raiders team yet. But like I said, maybe Sunday morning, I'll have more guys join me. But it's just because it's the Monday game, I feel like it's either been, from the pro side at least, they're taking the Cowboys or nothing at all at this point. All right. We got a lot to discuss. Well, you got a couple games you missed that I like. oh tell me what i miss what were we at with this panthers team i told you i got a lot of calls about it you know what's funny um are we missing it here i wonder if we are too i was actually just scrolling through because i was looking ahead to our underdog parlay and the panthers jumped out as a team that we would want to put in as the underdog parlay and obviously i've got trepidation because of what's happened with Bryce Young the past couple weeks. He just hasn't looked good. But I do think there's much more systemic issues with the Falcons than with the Panthers. To be catching three and a half, I feel like we both agree on that. Yeah. For a Falcons team that has so many issues. Speaking of social media, there was a clip the other day, I think I saw it yesterday, on the X platform where Michael Penix was asked about, you know who he leans on for support when things aren going well and who gives him advice He talked about his fiance and his high school coach The people he didn mention in his ears sort of that are helping coach him up, Raheem Morris and Zach Robinson, his offensive coordinator and his head coach. And I do think we're seeing some of this on the field where his performance has not been where it should be, but how much of that is on the coaching and how much of that is on the play calling so i do think that there's probably for lack of a better term better vibes in carolina i just don't know i guess i guess at the hook yeah we're taking carolina that's really what it is yeah and we didn't even talk about which was a mistake on my part atlanta is coming off an overtime game in an international this has never happened in the history of football usually it's happened five times all those teams had bye weeks it's the first time ever a team has played an overtime game internationally and come home to play the game. So there's that part of it. And, you know, the Penix part, you know, like we said, it's just inconsistent. And that's a lot of points for him to be catching in a divisional matchup where the Panthers have surprisingly owned the Falcons these last few times they've played. So, yeah, I just want to make sure I brought this one up. I just don't want people to be shocked if we do end up taking this one on Sunday. It's a game I'm bent into. I like the Panthers here, and it definitely was a miss on my part. I should have trusted my model, which had a two and a half. I just – I couldn't get what the books are doing. You're hanging this number. But I do think this comes down to three as more professionals come in and bet the Spanthers side. All right. I'm into that. I'm into that because to be honest, I think we were struggling to find five that we loved, not even like agreed on, just like five games that we were really in love with. So I could see that. And then before we go, I'm just going to throw out two games. Just line moving while we're doing the show live. Tampa has moved to plus six at a couple books. Jesus. So, yep, that's happening as we speak. And the Bears are shifting to two and a half. So we've talked about it a little bit. We both – I feel like we're trying not to, but we both are liking on the Bears at plus three. That's just – And this was at three and a half. This was at three and a half, by the way, last night. So to me it's about the number – We don't know because we're doing the show right now, but it's two and a half everywhere now. I do not like the Bears at two and a half. No, no, no, no. I like Vikings. I bringing it up for people If they want to grab the Bears I grab the three if you can before it moves That game was at three and a half All right Well the Vikings at two and a half might be an interesting play on Sunday Okay. I keep thinking about the Bears keep coming back against really bad teams. Well, Caleb against the NFC North, right? Can I invest in J.J. McCarthy? You know, that's just tricky. It's a really tricky one. Caleb was the one in his career, right, against NFC North? and it was like carolina all right so let's let's take a pause here for a sec because i want to recap cincinnati plus five and a half is a game we're both going to be on houston minus six and a half the bucks are now a plus six that's scary i'm glad we really haven't bet that we know we like the rams plus three we know we like minus three i mean minus three we know we like cleveland uh plus seven and a half plus eight plus eight and a half um we think we like philly minus two and a half. I don't love the Raiders, but I do like the Panthers a lot. I get it. The Raiders are tough, man. It's tough. Raiders are tough. You got to bet it. You got to keep fading this Dallas team as a big favorites. It's been profitable this year, fading them. So we got some decisions to make on Sunday. Give me your biggest bets right now. It sounds like Panthers might actually be in there. Pull up those pants and be a man. They're getting there. Honestly, I really took a heavy position on Cleveland like we talked about. I really thought, not that that number was going to come steaming down because of what we were talking about, but got very lucky that I bet it before all the Lamar news. Still lucky at plus 7.5, as long as it's above the 7. Rams, keep hitting it. I got tons on 2.5, a ton on minus 3. If it gets a minus 3.5, I'm not going to be that invested into it. It's all about the number here. So if it stays on the 3, I really think that'll be one of my bigger bets come Sunday I'm probably going to get there probably going to get there on this Eagles team I just right now I haven't taken too big of a position but it's just that I thought the one and a half would pop again so I'm going to try to be patient on that one but it seems like it keeps getting to the three it's not going the way I want it to so I might just have to suck it up and just take the two and a half on this Eagles team Alright let's do a three team parlay for underdogs i would do carolina mm gotta do cincy cincinnati yep that was on my list Plus 200 Should we do Cardinals Well, we didn't talk about the Cardinals. No, we did briefly. I know. I'm not crazy about it, but it's either them or the Jags. These are good home dogs. Let's do the Cardinals. All right. So three-team parlay, Carolina, Arizona, and Cincinnati.”
Parlay busts: Panthers beat Falcons 30-27 in OT (covers +3.5, won); Cardinals lost 41-22 to the 49ers (busts +3, lost); Bengals lost 34-12 to the Steelers (busts +5.5, lost). Two of three legs failed, so the parlay loses (ESPN box scores).
“I bet Cincinnati at plus five and a half.”
PIT 34-CIN 12 — Steelers beat Bengals 34-12 (Bengals margin -22), busting +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm telling you right now, the Cleveland Browns plus eight are going to be Chad's Choice presented by Hard Rock Bet.”
BAL 23-CLE 16 — Ravens beat Browns 23-16 (Browns margin -7), covering +8 (ESPN box score).
“Simon says, give me Las Vegas Raiders plus three and a half.”
DAL 33-LV 16 — Cowboys beat Raiders 33-16 (Raiders margin -17), busting +3.5 (ESPN game recap).
“Green Bay at the New York Giants, plus seven and a half. Since the news of Brian Dayball being fired, since the Green Bay Packers put up seven points at home and had a myriad of miscues against the Philadelphia Eagles, this number has come down from eight and a half to seven and a half and i don't know about you i don't have a ton of feelings about brian dayball i can't tell if like he was just an arrogant dude or a football dude or a guy who is getting screwed i think it's mostly brian dayball getting screwed forget about his ability to coach and scheme and get along with you know people on the coaching staff and the players don't seem to like him very much he seems to be a little bit of a manage the star and not manage anybody else kind of coach but um boy the videos that are coming out about joe shine and his reactions to jackson's dart and how he didn't want to take him and how he got rid of saquon when brian dayball wanted to keep him and how he signed daniel jones to 140 million deal like he seems a little weaselly in this whole situation i mean you come across all these people in life where you're just like how does this guy have and maintain these jobs and he's one of those people it's like he's managing up in the corporate world it's called managing up okay well he's doing it definitely we have a couple of people like that in my world as well but uh they always get theirs i don't hopefully it goes the same in the business world but i look at this move is i guess a positive for the Giants. I mean, this guy is blown. Was it four double-digit fourth-quarter leads this season with the Giants? Yeah. Had to do – if you're the owner, you have to show your fan base you have a pulse and make that move. So, yeah, just burn it all down. Get rid of him. Get rid of the GM. Start over. Like we joke with Dart, tons and tons of talents, no brains. Guy is a full-on idiot when it comes to protecting himself. I mean, someone joked, and I think it's true. I think he has three concussions this year. Like, well, I think he's been checked for three concussions. He's been checked for four multiple concussions. Yeah, but it's still like, I mean, he just needs to understand he's got so much talent. The league is set up to protect yourself if you're a quarterback, especially as a runner. it's just crazy the stuff he put himself into so i am all over green bay here especially if this might be russell wilson oh my god and we've seen it yeah russell wilson can have a fluke game where”
GB 27-NYG 20 — Packers beat Giants 27-20 (margin +7), falling short of covering -7.5 (ESPN box score).
“So plus three, I'll take on this Jags team. But my God, do I hate it?”
JAX 35-LAC 6 — Jaguars beat Chargers 35-6 (margin +29), covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“So we know we like Baltimore minus three and a half.”
BAL 27-MIN 19 — Ravens beat Vikings 27-19 (margin +8), covering -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“We know we like the Bucs minus two and a half.”
NE 28-TB 23 — Patriots won 28-23; Buccaneers lost outright, busting -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“We like the Cardinals plus six and a half in this spot at Seattle.”
SEA 44-ARI 22 — Seahawks beat Cardinals 44-22 (Cardinals margin -22), busting +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm leaving it up to you with Miami plus nine and a half.”
MIA 30-BUF 13 — Dolphins beat Bills 30-13 outright, covering +9.5 (ESPN box score).
“So, again, I just wanted to bring that one up because I'm not trying to force the Lions in. If I'm going to force a game in, even though I'm against it, betting-wise, I guess it's the Eagles. All right, let's do the Eagles. Doing the Eagles. We're doing the Eagles because... a much better number in the contest. That's really what we're talking about here. So the final five, Jesus, I can't believe, that's such a shock to me. I can't believe, two minutes ago, I did not see us putting the Eagles in. Baltimore minus three and a half. Bucks minus two and a half. Arizona six and a half. Miami nine and a half. It's on you, brother. Philadelphia plus two and a half. That's on Monday night.”
PHI 10-GB 7 — Eagles beat Packers 10-7 outright, covering +2.5 (ESPN game recap).
“I know. We're dug in here on the Niners. I'm trying to ward us off. Last week, I didn't ward us off enough, and this week, I'm trying to do it. But what does that mean? Ward us off? Is that like, all right, here's the warning. We're on the 49ers, no problem. We're telling people to take them five and a half and get to six. But is it really smart of us to put them in a three and a half in this contest? No, it's stupid. Right. So that's what I'm saying. I'm trying to protect us from that. And even if it hits, again, good. We've all won money. We've all taken the 49ers here.”
LAR 42-SF 26 — Rams beat 49ers 42-26 (49ers margin -16), busting +6 (ESPN box score).
“But first, let's get to that Raiders Broncos game. Obviously, it's our Thursday show. So a lot of people might not hear the show until after the game. you're getting some feedback from the professionals on the Raiders side. We both love Denver. And like this wasn even a question We actually were debating if Denver was going to be Simon Says or Chad choice because we both liked it so much We liked it at eight and a half It now at nine and a half.”
DEN 10-LV 7 — Broncos beat Raiders 10-7 (margin +3), busting -9.5 (ESPN box score).
“So just for this game, Chad, I like it. It's really about the number, though. This, to me, is going to come down. If you can still get the plus two, plus two and a half when you hear this, I will take position on the Jets. Once it gets below the two, I don't know how much I'm going to be investing here until I know exactly who the quarterback is going to be. And if that is, in fact, Justin Fields, we can re-enter this one on Sunday morning and talk about putting in the contest. But as you said here right now, I'm betting into the two and a half without even knowing who the quarterback is. Yeah, I am as well.”
NYJ 27-CLE 20 — Jets beat Browns 27-20 outright, covering +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“But as you said here right now, I'm betting into the two and a half without even knowing who the quarterback is. Yeah, I am as well.”
NYJ 27-CLE 20 — Jets beat Browns 27-20 outright, covering +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to be patient here. Get a better number. Like I said, this is moving up people. You can get two and a half right now. Key number. I'm going to grab that on Houston.”
HOU 36-JAX 29 — Texans beat Jaguars 36-29 outright, covering +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“Jacksonville at Houston. Houston, look, on Tuesday, we talked about wanting to wait on this game until Houston was an underdog. Houston is an underdog. It's one at Hard Rock Bet, one and a half in a lot of other places. We're just betting on the defense.”
HOU 36-JAX 29 — Texans beat Jaguars 36-29 outright, covering +1 (ESPN box score).
“Maybe I can talk us out of it. But as we sit here right now, I've bet heavily into the books. I love the books. I think it's a great number. And I think this Patriots team is just like last week, a little overvalued. And I think they're already valued here. There's probably should be three and a half. It's two and a half. Come on. We can't avoid this one. It's too good. Tampa Bay box. They're going to be in the final five.”
NE 28-TB 23 — Patriots won 28-23; Buccaneers lost outright, busting -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“So me and Chad loves the plus six and a half people. I think this will keep moving as well. Like I said, the book, the publics, they keep undervaluing Bursette. So I can easily set in this, get up to seven. Just like last week we talked, I like the Cardinals there, plus two and a half.”
SEA 44-ARI 22 — Seahawks beat Cardinals 44-22 (Cardinals margin -22), busting +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“and he's doing exactly what Kyle Shanahan needs him to do. The number is way too big. It shouldn't be four and a half points. And so that's the side. Simon, you and I, we have confidence. Niners. Niners are the side.”
LAR 42-SF 26 — Rams beat 49ers 42-26 (49ers margin -16), busting +4.5 (ESPN box score).
“And a four, I won't take it, but a four and a half, I'm taking 49ers there.”
LAR 42-SF 26 — Rams beat 49ers 42-26 (49ers margin -16), busting +4.5 (ESPN box score).
“Give me Miami plus nine and a half home dog.”
MIA 30-BUF 13 — Dolphins beat Bills 30-13 outright, covering +9.5 (ESPN box score).
“Let's do three. Let's do three for the underdog parlay. My dog likes your dog Your dog likes my dog Jets plus 110 I was just going to say Jets have to be in there Mm Texans? Let's see. Yeah, I like that. Niners? I like that. All right. Underdog, Moneyline, Parlay, Round Robin. Jets, Houston, Niners.”
Round-robin parlay busts: Jets beat Browns 27-20 (won) and Texans beat Jaguars 36-29 (won), but Rams beat 49ers 42-26 so the 49ers ML leg lost, sinking the parlay (ESPN box scores).
“Favorites? Panthers. Panthers, Lions. Panthers, Lions, Ravens. Ravens, for sure. Bucks minus 140. We're all in on the Bucks either way. Yeah, that's true. That's true. Bears are minus 210. Let's do the Bears. Bears? Let's do the Bears. Yeah.”
Favorites parlay busts: Panthers lost to Saints 7-17 and Buccaneers lost to Patriots 23-28, sinking the parlay despite Lions, Ravens, and Bears all winning (ESPN box scores).
“Broncos minus eight and a half. Simon says Broncos minus eight and a half presented by Hard Rock Bet.”
DEN 10-LV 7 — Broncos beat Raiders 10-7 (margin +3), well short of covering -8.5 (ESPN box score).
“Buccaneers minus two and a half against the high flying Drake May MVPing New England Patriots.”
NE 28-TB 23 — Patriots won 28-23; Buccaneers lost outright, busting -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“So to be clear, our final five are going to be Los Angeles Chargers. It's nine right now. We like it at nine. It's eight and a half in the contest. No, Chargers are nine and a half in contest. It's Chargers minus nine and a half in the contest. I think we're fine with that. Yeah, yeah. As long as they're under 10.”
LAC 27, TEN 20 — Chargers beat Titans 27-20; LA's -9.5 spread busts (won by only 7).
“Minneapolis or Minneapolis, Minnesota at Detroit. Detroit is a nine-point favorite. This was Chad's choice. This is another one where I'm glad it finally ticked up. I think some of this is a lot of public money starting to come in on Detroit. At the end of the day, the reason why I like this and I think you like it too is we believe more in Jared Goff and Dan Campbell at home as big favorites given their history plus their running game, which is the strength of this team, than we do in J.J. McCarthy on the road in his first game after nearly two months of being out in a Vikings run defense that just frankly has not been very good this year. Yeah, and this is another bet where I like to lie to myself and say I wouldn't usually make this, but I would years ago because of what you just talked about. It's Campbell, Goff in a matchup at home against a team that's just struggling right now. And this is not the answer, right? JJ, him coming in and burning us because there's no tape on him. And he has this incredible, impressive game because there is a winner in him. We know he has a guy that knows how to win and make big plays at big moments. But this just feels like a horrible, horrible spot for this kid to step into. Rusty walking into this. And you talked about the Flores defense. It's not what it was last year. They're not getting these turnovers. They're not getting pressure on the quarterback. You said their run defense is just terrible Their best thing is their pass defense but I think we seen them against a couple of good passing offenses That might not be so true So it just might be a horrible disaster spot for them Like you said, this number, a bunch of books are already pushing 9.5. Hopefully people listen to Chad here. Chad's Choice got it to 8.5. It's moving on up.”
MIN 27, DET 24 — Vikings beat Lions 27-24; Detroit's -8.5 spread busts (lost outright).
“This is what happened to us. Denver at Houston. Houston minus two now. This was our brass balls. And I got a lot of questions about this. How can we make this our brass balls? Look, we're still betting a team that's under 500 that is a favorite in a game that flipped in which they used to be underdogs against a first place team. It's moved a little bit, I think, because Nico Collins is going to be playing and it moved a little bit off of the injury news about pat certain that he won't be playing so i like the matchup here i like the opportunity i like the texans defense uh i have no fear of betting this at two we've been betting at minus one and a half yeah and to the naysayers be happy we must made the chargers this bet which i really don't think takes any balls i think this takes much more balls and the fact that like chad said this is a true test for cj this is gonna be the best defense he's faced. This is going to be the best offensive line that's Houston's front is faced defensively. So I think it takes a little bit of balls. But the big reason we love it so much too is we kept hammering home. We felt the line. We were getting a good number. It's proven out. I mean, a couple of really public books out there are still at the one and a half. I'd still grab that if you can. But a lot of books. I've already hit two and a half this morning. So you can see the way the professionals are going. And I think it's another week the public's going to try to fade this Texas team. Like last week, the 49ers. It's not as extreme. I think last week we joked it was like 80% of the bets on the money was coming in on that 49ers side. This is way more split, right? There's much more professional money. The tickets obviously is on Denver, but the money is on Houston here. So, you know, we try to get out the best of the number. I feel like we did it Sunday night, gave out the plus one and a half. Early in the week, gave out the one and a half and gave it again on Thursday. So, yeah, it's just a number I would be shocked if it all holds at two and a half. I could see more buyback from the public this morning on this Broncos team. But the direction, like I said, it's going is minus two and a half.”
DEN 18, HOU 15 — Broncos beat Texans 18-15; Houston's -1.5 spread busts (lost outright).
“Last one we agree on. Kansas City at Buffalo. Kansas City's minus two right now. This was Simon Sinek. when it was Kansas City, minus one and a half. This one also has bounced around. Like it got as high as two and a half, then got that down. There's some places where you can still get a one and a half. I think there's some professional community elements here that really like Buffalo and think that Kansas City has been riding high and might be a little overvalued because of their wins the past few weeks. I think you and I just don't trust Buffalo's defense as much as we playing Buffalo's defense. And we do very much trust Patrick Mahomes. Yeah. And I think a lot of the pros, their position, they've come in on the plus two and a half with this team. So you have seen it fluctuated, but it does look like that's where it's starting to settle a little bit. Right. Which I am shocked by. I thought the pros would keep this at minus one and a half just because I didn't realize there'd be so much resistance here. I really thought the Bills would be a public play and the pros would be on this Chiefs team. For what I talked about, like it's as much as people say Josh Allen's numbers are the same as they were the year before. Talk to any real Bills fans. He just doesn't look the same. He looks a little off. And the schedule has been much softer this year than it was last year. And that's including, you know, a bad loss to the Patriots, which, you know, maybe the Patriots are better than I'm getting credit for. And then a really bad loss to Atlanta. So I don't know. This would be the type of game that Josh Allen does show up and put up big numbers, and that's what they're going to need here because I just look at this matchup for this Chiefs team. I know the Bills got guys back, but I just don't see anyone in their secondary that's going to have real problems to this Chiefs passing attack. So, yeah, Chad, I think we have one and a half in the contest. Like you said, it's minus two at Hard Rock. Shop around. See if you can still find the one and a half.”
KC 21, BUF 28 — Bills beat Chiefs 28-21; Kansas City's -1.5 spread busts (lost outright).
“I think Green Bay in this game in the contest is 12 and a half. So we like Carolina plus 13 and a half.”
CAR 16, GB 13 — Panthers beat Packers 16-13; Carolina's +13.5 spread covers (lost by only 3).
“and it is five and a half in the contest. So I haven't bet it. I've like – I told you I took a little position in Atlanta. I don't know. The Patriots really had no feel for this game, but you're confident in it. The other pros are confident in it. I'm not going to fight you on it if we put it as our fifth one. Well, I like it also. We're getting a little bit of a better number. I think Green Bay in this game in the contest is 12 and a half. So we like Carolina plus 13 and a half. We like Atlanta. At least I do. I think we're going to put – I know we're going to put – I'm committing us to putting Atlanta into the contest.”
ATL 23, NE 24 — Patriots beat Falcons 24-23; Atlanta's +5.5 spread covers (lost by only 1).
“Interesting that they would open this on minus three. Like they know they're going to get a ton of public money, this Lions team. So like you said, I'm going to grab it just now. Cause I do think it will move up. I mean, it's minus one 20 at most books. So, you know, it's not the greatest number to be bent into, but I still think it's a key number. So I'll, I'll grab it now.”
DET 44, WSH 22 — Lions beat Commanders 44-22; Detroit's -3 spread covers easily (won by 22).
“Hard Rock in Jersey are now minus three, minus 120. So I know. Again, I'm trying to not do what I just did last week and take all these chalk road favorites. favorites but my god that's that feels like an insane line to open with like this ravens team we've seen it when they get going they dominate and i i don't want to overreact to a vikings team that did stop the run last week against detroit where we've seen them be one of the worst run defense in all football so maybe i'm missing it and i'll learn more this week about what the vikings did i'll watch the tape about the adjustments they made but this feels like an a great play for Lamar, who historically is just absolutely dominated NFC team. So I'm with you. If you can get a minus three right now, hard rock, I'm going to grab that early line.”
BAL 27, MIN 19 — Ravens beat Vikings 27-19; Baltimore's -3 spread covers (won by 8).
“Atlanta's plus six and a half against the Colts team. It's indoors. And it's indoors. Yeah. Like, it feels like this is the exact spot we're supposed to back this Atlanta team. So I'm going to grab that early here. Even if I want to change my position later on, the more I look into this one. But I can't see my model having the Colts as a seven-point favorite. Like again we talked that they are good but their defense is suspect They have major questions about the secondary And Daniel Jones bounce back spot Yeah of course he should bounce back here But I don know Feels like a very – still an inflated line. And the fact that you can get six and a half, such a key number, I'll grab that early here.”
ATL 25, IND 31 — Colts beat Falcons 31-25 in OT in Berlin; Atlanta's +6.5 spread covers (lost by only 6).
“You can get minus two and a half on Green Bay right now. I think that's a pretty good value. I'm interested to see the professionals do the pros will come in with the public and hit that line. I'm interested to see if that's, that's what the possibility is here. Oh yeah, you're right. That Atlanta Colts game is in Germany. I believe I could be wrong, but no, you are. That's right. That's right. It's international, right? Okay. That makes more sense. Damn it. I mean, I already bet it. So I'm already dug in on it, but yeah, before we get out of here, just I'm interested to see what the pros do with that Eagles line. I feel like that's a very tempting to the public, going to be a very public dog. Eagles plus two and a half. And I'm going to grab the Green Bay just in case it does go up to three.”
PHI 10, GB 7 — Eagles beat Packers 10-7 on Monday Night Football; Green Bay's -2.5 spread busts (lost outright).
“I bet the Chargers at eight and a half.”
LAC 27, TEN 20 — Chargers beat Titans 27-20; LA's -8.5 spread busts (won by only 7).
“we got to find five that we both love chargers minus eight and a half at tennessee uh interesting game we talked about loving the chargers on tuesday that's when it was at nine and a half Now it's moved even more. You mentioned off the top, sharp calls, the wise guys loving Tennessee. I don't know what anyone's seeing with Tennessee. Jeffrey Simmons did not practice on Wednesday. This team has a very hard time looking like a professional football team. I bet the Chargers at eight and a half. I'm having a hard time figuring out what the value is on the Titans. other than their eight and a half point home dog because the Chargers, they should crush in this game if they play like the Chargers can play. Yeah and a lot of it I think it just what we talk about every week Like certain pros and certain groups they just playing the laws of averages Like, Chad's talking about here, these teams can't keep winning forever. Titans can't keep losing forever, can they? I think they can. Like, you just talked about it. You're missing key guys here. I can't state that enough. And, you know, it's a unique spot, too, with this Chargers team coming off kind of a mini-buy right. I mean, yeah, it's bizarre world. Justin Herbert, who couldn't stand being in front of the camera, is now it feels like at every sporting event with his super hot girlfriend. And it's like, I love it. Like, finally, Herbert's being a QB one. What's been lacking with this guy forever is just that embracing it like and the moxie of it. Now, I think, too, the season he's having, you know, people are loving Herbert. Right. He's in the top five. We talked about the MVP betting right now. he's just way up there and it's the stats, right? The 2000 yards, he's like a ton of passing yards. And when I really dove into this one, I kind of really thought to myself, what are me and Chad back in here with horrible on the road? Like, are there numbers here to back up us taking him as a big favorite here? Because I want to see why the pros are fading horrible here. Cause to me, this is like an autoplay horrible, big favorite against the team that can't stop the run without their best run defender what is there to fear and even the numbers back it up chad like our ball he's closed the favorite 11 times with the chargers he's seven and four against the spread in those games if we're going just him as a road favorite hardball since he's been with the chargers they're tending to against the spread as a road favorite against the spread that's crazy like i can't get over that now let's factor in extended rest that's a big deal for this chargers team they are a perfect 5-0, 5-0 against the spread in this spot with Harbaugh going from West Coast to East Coast. Now we're adding in Tennessee is the worst team historically covering. I just, it's under 10. I can't avoid it. We and Chad are on two huge chalk favorites, one in the Lions, one in the Chargers. I shockingly love them both.”
LAC 27, TEN 20 — Chargers beat Titans 27-20; LA's -8.5 spread busts (won by only 7).
“and moving this number down to eight and a half. But like you said, we'll take that value. Well, you just mentioned the other game, Minnesota at Detroit. Detroit is a nine-point favorite at Hard Rock, eight and a half at a lot of other places. I love it. This was Chad's choice. Why are people getting excited about J.J. McCarthy? Why are they trying to find the good in the two games that he played, which weren't very good, and getting excited about the number of eight and a half or nine for the Vikings? the Lions are a dominant team they do not have close games if they have close games it's games that they lose when they win they win so freaking big and this is a classic spot for them to win so big and I pointed this out on Tuesday it's not about the Brian Flores pass rush and pass defense. This Vikings rush defense just hasn't been good all year. They're bottom 10 across the board in multiple advanced analytics stats. Like this is not a rush defense that is going to hold up against a dominant rush offense, which is really what the Lions like to be. And we've seen that over multiple weeks. So I'm getting the Lions, Jared Goff, Dan Campbell, in a great rush offense against a bad rush defense at home with a quarterback who hasn't played in six weeks who they may or may not have been keeping”
MIN 27, DET 24 — Vikings beat Lions 27-24; Detroit's -8.5 spread busts (lost outright).
“and moving this number down to eight and a half. But like you said, we'll take that value. Well, you just mentioned the other game, Minnesota at Detroit. Detroit is a nine-point favorite at Hard Rock, eight and a half at a lot of other places. I love it. This was Chad's choice. Why are people getting excited about J.J. McCarthy? Why are they trying to find the good in the two games that he played, which weren't very good, and getting excited about the number of eight and a half or nine for the Vikings? the Lions are a dominant team they do not have close games if they have close games it's games that they lose when they win they win so freaking big and this is a classic spot for them to win so big and I pointed this out on Tuesday it's not about the Brian Flores pass rush and pass defense. This Vikings rush defense just hasn't been good all year. They're bottom 10 across the board in multiple advanced analytics stats. Like this is not a rush defense that is going to hold up against a dominant rush offense, which is really what the Lions like to be. And we've seen that over multiple weeks. So I'm getting the Lions, Jared Goff, Dan Campbell, in a great rush offense against a bad rush defense at home with a quarterback who hasn't played in six weeks who they may or may not have been keeping on the bench because they're kind of worried about how good he might be well what's the debate here don't i don't want to hear oh well it's the number guy look at the teams that's what i have to say yeah honestly though it's i think a lot of these pros love jj like they got me to flip in the summer it must have been the summer heat but like i had zero view on jj didn't really have any kind of read on him and all summer these guys hyped him up said he's gonna be the next second coming of sam donald and he's been anything but right and this team this year this viking team is what i thought they were gonna be last year with sam donald thought it was gonna be a ton of dysfunction a nameless defense that just can't get after the key quarterback but last year everything went their way right they got all these crazy turnover bounces and this year it's not hitting the same And, you know, a couple of trends that maybe pros are betting here with this Vikings team. The only one I could think of was, well, it's a Lions team, a huge win against the Bucs and then a bye week. Right. Usually a team with a big win like that on an extended homestead. So, you know, 10, 15 plus days in this exact spot. This is, again, a lot of data. they're 79 104 so 44 against the spread in this spot so you could say well this isn't a great spot for the lines same counter i have with that chargers one it's about the coaching like there i can't see campbell letting the guys have a letdown here and okay let's dive in the numbers with campbell what he's been like with extended rest with this lines team they're 15 and four against the spread covering by almost seven points per game in this exact spot so i love it like i I love the fact that Campbell gets his guys ready for these type of games, even when they're big favorites in this spot. Because you know it been what Chad three years now that the Lions have been getting the respect from the books and they still covering in a 70 clip They been big favorites in a lot of these spots and we had to just bite the bullet and take it because we know it a little bit of an inflated line But to me, it's just like the Chargers, under that key number of 10 and 11. I'm going to take it here.”
MIN 27, DET 24 — Vikings beat Lions 27-24; Detroit's -8.5 spread busts (lost outright).
“I know we both bet it at plus one and a half. We even said on Tuesday we still liked it at Texans minus one and a half”
DEN 18, HOU 15 — Broncos beat Texans 18-15; Houston's -1.5 spread busts (lost outright).
“So we're still on Houston minus one and a half.”
DEN 18, HOU 15 — Broncos beat Texans 18-15; Houston's -1.5 spread busts (lost outright).
“I definitely bet the Jags a minus three. Kansas City, Kansas City minus two at Buffalo. This was Simon says when it was one and a half, it's moved towards two at a lot of places. But when it hits two, it seems like some buyback has happened on the Buffalo Bills. No Isaiah Pacheco in this game for the Chiefs, but no Ed Oliver for the Bills. Like in the scheme of things, I think that's a much worse situation for the Bills than it is for the Chiefs. I'm going to like backing Mahomes as a short favorite in just about any scenario. I like backing the unit offensively that I think is more complete against a depleted defense. I know that the Chiefs are riding high. I know they've been covering, but I think there's a difference between a Colts riding high and covering and a chief's riding high and covering. And I know you're with me on this. I don't think we're buyers on the bills defense and that's the biggest problem to me. Yeah. Not a buyer in the bills defense. And I just, I'm not a buyer on Josh on right now. Like I just, something seems off with them. Um, I talked about it going into the draft process. The number one guy I trust trust for a wide receiver value evaluation is Steve Smith. Uh, he's, he does not pull punches when he breaks down this buffalo receiving core like keon coleman he says he shouldn't even be in the league like this guy can't get separation doesn't run crisp routes doesn't help josh allen josh allen's in scrambling mode which shakir you know he's been a great receiver for them because he gets he does that for them so that's allowing 20 points or fewer so it's happened 28 times in his career he is 23 and 5 straight up against those teams 22 and 5 ATS against those type of teams that's what makes him Superman that's why he's MVP of the league last year Josh Allen he faces dominant defense it didn't matter he's there's no scheme to stop him right now just feels like his receivers himself are beating themselves he just doesn't look comfortable his throws aren't great he He doesn't make the right reads either. He just locks into guys. And when he's in scramble mode, it doesn't feel like his receivers are helping him out either. So just going back to the data too, him being a home dog, super rare. I looked through it. It's only happened about five times. And he's won every time. The only one loss was two. Mahomes. So we know the deal here. Like you said, the resistance is at two. A bunch of books did hit two and a half. a ton of money came in a ton of money came in on this Bills team shocked it held it too I thought it would go back down to one and a half so that's what I keep telling people it is split the pros are split down the middle here and like me I've taken a large position on this Chiefs team I really like it I know some guys out of their way”
KC 21, BUF 28 — Bills beat Chiefs 28-21; Kansas City's -2 spread busts (lost outright).
“I definitely bet the Jags a minus three. Kansas City, Kansas City minus two at Buffalo. This was Simon says when it was one and a half, it's moved towards two at a lot of places. But when it hits two, it seems like some buyback has happened on the Buffalo Bills. No Isaiah Pacheco in this game for the Chiefs, but no Ed Oliver for the Bills. Like in the scheme of things, I think that's a much worse situation for the Bills than it is for the Chiefs. I'm going to like backing Mahomes as a short favorite in just about any scenario. I like backing the unit offensively that I think is more complete against a depleted defense. I know that the Chiefs are riding high. I know”
KC 21, BUF 28 — Bills beat Chiefs 28-21; Kansas City's -2 spread busts (lost outright).
“Oh, no, I already bet the Jags a minus three.”
JAX 29, LV 30 — Raiders beat Jaguars 30-29 in OT; Jacksonville's -3 spread busts (won by only 1).
“Carolina. Two big favorites. Two big favorites. Jesus. What has happened? The way it's going this year. What has happened to us? Carolina is a 13 and a half point underdog on the road at the Green Bay Packers. And our question on Tuesday was, would Bryce Young be starting? He is. I had to dig deep on this one. Here's something that was interesting to me. So Carolina allows the fifth fewest plays per game, which equals a top 10 success rate on early downs, meaning the teams they play don't get big gains early in a series. The Packers rank 23rd in plays per game. They're very explosive. So we know they're going to be able to score points, but they do it while not getting a lot of long drives. They don't have a lot of plays over the course of a game. So you could argue with Bryce Young and a run defense that until this past week against the Bills had been trending upward and the fact that they are very good in early down success rate, they might be able to limit the Packers scoring opportunities, which makes it harder to cover a two touchdown spread. Am I stretching Am I reaching Am I just trying to find a way to feel comfortable betting on the Panthers which I haven done by the way I just sort of laying out a theory on a really big number for a team that had been trending upward And I think that the Packers might be overvalued because of what happened the past couple of weeks You're hilarious. I thought you bet this. I bet the Panthers, but it's not one of my bigger bets. I'm simply I mean, sounds stupid. We are simply playing the number here.”
CAR 16, GB 13 — Panthers beat Packers 16-13; Carolina's +13.5 spread covers (lost by only 3).
“I took some on the over just in case there is no Max Crosby the total is 44 and a half like okay I bite on that”
JAX 29, LV 30 — Raiders beat Jaguars 30-29 in OT, combined 59 points; the Over 44.5 total cashes.
“All right, let's talk about some of these the money line favorite parlay Why not Kansas City Houston? Lions Chargers and one more Rams Packers No because they big Let get the juice down a little bit Let's throw in – I mean you like Jacksonville, Chad. I love Jacksonville. Minus 150. Great. Put it in. I don't hate that. Or we could throw in Dallas, minus 145. I like that. I think I like Dallas more than I like fuck I hate them both kind of actually I don't think about it those are two good options because again you're not with me on the Colts which I think they're yeah they're minus 170 so the odds aren't as good either let's go with Jacksonville okay money line round robin favorites Kansas City Houston Chargers Detroit Jacksonville”
KC 21-BUF 28; HOU 15-DEN 18; LAC 27-TEN 20; DET 24-MIN 27; JAX 29-LV 30 — Money-line round robin busts: Chiefs lost to Bills 21-28, Texans lost to Broncos 15-18, Chargers beat Titans 27-20 (won), Lions lost to Vikings 24-27, Jaguars beat Raiders 30-29 OT (won); with two of five legs losing outright the parlay does not clear.
“I love Jacksonville. Minus 150. Great. Put it in. I don't hate that. Or we could throw in Dallas, minus 145. I like that. I think I like Dallas more than I like fuck I hate them both kind of actually I don't think about it those are two good options because again you're not with me on the Colts which I think they're yeah they're minus 170 so the odds aren't as good either let's go with Jacksonville okay money line round robin favorites Kansas City Houston Chargers Detroit Jacksonville”
KC 21-BUF 28; HOU 15-DEN 18; LAC 27-TEN 20; DET 24-MIN 27; JAX 29-LV 30 — Money-line round robin busts: Chiefs lost to Bills 21-28, Texans lost to Broncos 15-18, Chargers beat Titans 27-20 (won), Lions lost to Vikings 24-27, Jaguars beat Raiders 30-29 OT (won); with two of five legs losing outright the parlay does not clear.
“But that also tells me something. And the fact this number hasn't moved off of the seven half after the news about Lamar basically being said he's going to be the starter and that all the money and the tickets are coming in on the Ravens, this number hasn't moved tells me that somebody somewhere likes the Dolphins aggressively. Which is shocking because as much as I get it, like I've talked about, this is a nice to a spot. It's like we are talking about backing a Dolphins team after a huge road win when the whole house is on fire. We're not talking about it. So I just I'm on Miami. I'm just I can't get over as someone that's taking a position out on the Ravens. Obviously, a couple of weeks ago to win their division, everything like that. This is no doubt a must win game but this is the type of game that does trip up this type of team So you can get plus 330 plus 340 right now in Miami money line If you're taking the plus 7.5, you have to sprinkle a little bit on that Miami money line.”
MIA 6, BAL 28 — Ravens beat Dolphins 28-6 on Thursday Night Football; Miami's +7.5 spread busts (lost by 22).
“and there's just no defenders downfield that can stop. Ladd McConkie, Keenan Allen, like that type of – I mean, they're tight end now for the Chargers all of a sudden as a stud, this rookie tight end. Aranda Gadsden. I used to love Aranda Gadsden when he played for the Dolphins. He had massive hands and was so good at catching the ball. Huge, huge fan of Aranda Gadsden. So, yeah, just I get where you're coming from. It's like, is this line too big? I don't think it is. So I'll grab the nine and a half while I still can. And I think this gets back up to ten, ten and a half.”
LAC 27, TEN 20 — Chargers beat Titans 27-20; LA's -9.5 spread busts (won by only 7).
“minnesota at detroit detroit is an eight and a half point favorite very excited to hear your response to my analysis of this game because the first thing you said off the top of the show as soon as you said that it's trap week my mind immediately went to this game And I don't care because Chad's choice presented by Hard Rock Bet is going to be the Detroit Lions.”
MIN 27, DET 24 — Vikings beat Lions 27-24; Detroit's -8.5 spread busts (lost outright).
“and I would have felt better about the Broncos chances even though I had bet the Texans if Pastor Tane was playing because the Broncos are so good at getting extra pressure with five guys because they know Pastor Tane is on somebody and they can they can not worry about that side of the field I think that this is a big big difference and I'm just glad I got the plus one and a half”
DEN 18, HOU 15 — Broncos beat Texans 18-15; Houston's +1.5 spread busts (lost by 3).
“Jags oh yeah I love the Jags here yeah I'm just glad you stayed away no no I still bet the Jags Oh, no. Minus three.”
JAX 29, LV 30 — Raiders beat Jaguars 30-29 in OT; Jacksonville's -3 spread busts (won by only 1).
“This is my Simon Says, but give me the Chiefs minus one-and-a-half.”
KC 21, BUF 28 — Bills beat Chiefs 28-21; Kansas City's -1.5 spread busts (lost outright).
“Arizona at Dallas. Dallas is a two-and-a-half point favorite. but it's come down from Cowboys minus three. That one I don't get. I actually, I like the Cowboys here. I like it situationally. I like that Kyler will be starting. It's good we're on opposite sides this week. We are on a lot of opposite sides. Yeah, that's good though. We were agreeing too much. I just think it the right spot for the Cowboys I just you know my opinion I don think the Cowboys should be favorites or anybody unless they playing some of the worst teams in football Arizona to me is not one of the worst teams in football If it's Kyler, shockingly, don't mind him coming back in this spot. This is the perfect type of defense to get right against. They're just abysmal in every way. So, yeah, you're probably right if you want to get to minus two and a half. I don't mind that if you're going to get Dallas. But if it's three, it has to be Arizona. This is not the type of game Dallas will be able to blow a team out with. I think Arizona will be able to be competitive. Their offense can move the ball, whether it's Kyler or Bursette. I have confidence in this Arizona offense to stay and keep it close with the Dallas team. But like you said, the Dallas offense, the trust of their kicker, if it's under three, okay, that's fair enough. They have the best kicker in football. That's a key number for what type of kicker he is. But yeah, at plus three, the value to me is all on Arizona. Like the money line plus 130 as well. That's the value I want to be at. Yeah, I play both of these primetime games. I'm just playing the number. Three and a half and two and a half. Three and a half and two and a half. That's what I'm doing. I'm getting the home team at less than a field goal with a great offense against a not great defense.”
ARI 27, DAL 17 — Cardinals beat Cowboys 27-17; Dallas's -2.5 spread busts (lost outright).
“if you're say if you're throwing Colton all of a sudden I'd go with Giants like to me it's Houston plus one Denver minus three and a half and by the way Houston we still like it at the current numbers two two and a half not an issue for us no uh Houston plus one”
HOU 26, SF 15 — Texans beat 49ers 26-15; Texans +1 covers (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, obviously, we were hoping for a minus three. It's minus three and a half. I have no problem betting the hook with this Denver team. I love this matchup.”
DEN 44, DAL 24 — Broncos beat Cowboys 44-24, covering -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Simon, whether the number is seven or six and a half, we're going to be on New England here.”
NE 32, CLE 13 — Patriots beat Browns 32-13, covering -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, plus seven, plus seven and a half. I've come a long way on this giant, so I start to really like this number.”
PHI 38, NYG 20 — Eagles beat Giants 38-20 (margin 18); Giants +7.5 failed to cover (ESPN box score).
“Houston Texans 49ers total is 41 and a half. Even when they're missing pieces of 49ers, I think both defenses are going to be on the forefront here. This feels like a 17 to 10, 17 to 13 type of game. Just... Two defenses going at it this entire game. I really like that low total.”
HOU 26, SF 15 — Texans beat 49ers 26-15; combined 41 points, Under 41.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Give me that under 40.5.”
NE 32, CLE 13 — Patriots beat Browns 32-13; combined 45 points, Under 40.5 failed to cover (ESPN box score).
“That's the only other team I could think of, even though I've only bet them at minus 13.5. The Colts are an interesting play at minus 14.5. no Simmons now for Tennessee but taking them over the Steelers I can't get there so I just wanted to mention I am on the Colts do like the Colts even if they're you know minus 14 and a half”
IND 38, TEN 14 — Colts beat Titans 38-14, covering -13.5 (ESPN box score).
“We have the Pittsburgh Steelers tonight plus three and a half to round out our final five.”
GB 35, PIT 25 — Packers beat Steelers 35-25; Steelers +3.5 failed to cover (ESPN box score).
“Baltimore Ravens, minus six at Hard Rock Bet right now. [37:42] Unfortunately, I bet them at six and a half, but we are on them. [37:45] We are on the Ravens. [37:45] That is our Brass Balls Bet of the Week, sponsored by Hard Rock Bet.”
BAL 30, CHI 16 — Ravens beat Bears 30-16, covering -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“I have the New York Giants plus seven and a half at Philly.”
PHI 38, NYG 20 — Eagles beat Giants 38-20 (margin 18); Giants +7.5 failed to cover (ESPN box score).
“we gonna like san francisco at houston houston is a one point favorite at hard rock bet this was simon says i hope people got it because at a lot of other places it moved to one and a half And the Niners had even more injuries on defense on Sunday. And I think they're having a really hard time getting pressure without Bosa. And that has been the biggest problem for CJ Stroud. We saw a lot of that against the Seahawks. So I'm feeling more and more comfortable, even though we've got a flipped line here just for a moment on the Texans and as you mentioned it in sharp calls. So give me your take on why we're still feeling comfortable. I thought you were going to say something real crazy there. Yeah. So I'm walking away. Well, it's always funny. Like I'm out and about and I ran into a couple of buddies who do listen to our show and they're like, dude, are you the sucker for taking a two and four Houston team against a five and two 49ers team when they're favorite? Like, isn't this an easy bet on the 49ers? I'm like, when you say something like that to me, it makes me more confident on Houston, where it's like, I'm hoping more people think like he is, where they're overlooking a lot of the underlying stuff with this 49ers team. And like you said, the injuries is the biggest one. But to me, it's the trends. Shanahan, whatever it is, he's moving in this era that his teams just don't get up for games after wins. Since 2023, so like late December 2023, 49ers, 1-13 against the spread after a straight up win. and they're failing to cover those spreads by seven and a half points. So that's not just a little bit of data. That's over two years now. Like 2023, December, that was a long time ago. Just a different team after these wins in the sense that they just don't cover. Like the fact that they get overvalued by the general public after wins just shows that's happening time and time again in the market. So I really like that stat for Houston, and I immediately thought to myself, okay, well, let's dive into what Chad talked about, right? The defense, how have they been and how is the 49ers offense against really good defenses? And, you know, their last nine games against defenses, again, this is a Shanahan stat again, defense that allowed 17 points or less per game, which is, that's the Houston's bread and butter right now. They're a great defensive team. Shanahan's one and eight against the spread on the road or neutral sites since 2022. He's actually lost five straight in this exact spot. So I already kind of loved Houston here because what Chad talked about there a ton of injuries to this 49ers team and I felt like this was a get spot for Houston that just got embarrassed on a short week This is kind of the perfect recipe of them to get that taste out of their mouth move on to the next week in this 49ers team. Now, with all the unknown of Purdy and a banged-up Mac Jones, we still don't know who the quarterback is for this week. I just think there's so much going on now with this 49ers team. Them being 5-3 with all they've gone through, that makes more sense than this Houston team. Totally laying another egg. at home here and the 49ers moved to six and two this feels like a bad spot plus 49ers team on the flip side houston their defense this this should be a great match for them the sense that they have two limited quarterbacks they have two really good ed ruchers on their team and like we said that that defense they put them in the spot to win against the seahawks the cj just screwed us over and chad talked about it cj has no pass rush fear that tends to be when he shines so So I'm glad you've come around this Texas team. I know it feels gross. I get why on Tuesday you were like, I hate this. But it just feels like it's a number you have to play in a spot we have to bet.”
HOU 26, SF 15 — Texans beat 49ers 26-15, covering -1 (ESPN box score).
“New York Jets plus six and a half at Cincinnati. I've been trying to avoid this one. All right, let's avoid it then. I mean, like, we're going to have to find five bets that we love, and it makes no sense that the Bengals are six and a half point favorites over anyone. If we know Tyrod Taylor is starting on Sunday and we still have 48 hours to truly understand if he is, it feels like it might have to make it into one of our favorites. The first five weeks of the year, the Jets played struggling or bad defenses in the Steelers, Cowboys, Dolphins, Bucks, and Bills, averaged 23 points a game. The Bengals have allowed fewer than 27 points once this season. It is just a dreadful, dreadful, dreadful defense. It's the kind of defense that might be Aaron Glenn and Jets proof. You know what I mean? And so – I don't know. I'm not going to waste people's time on it. But if you want to just – if you don't like any of our other bets and you're like, what's the grossest bet that I have to bet this week because it's a long-term winner? This Jets is a long-term winner. I know it doesn't feel like it, but it's a unique spot. I mean, there's tons of stats. Teams that are 0-4 like they are and they go on the road, they tend to cover these exact games. The only other team 0-4 this year that's gone on the road and covered was the Titans. The Titans did it. So that's what I mean. It's usually a spot for these teams. I mean, the Titans could do it. Goddamn Jets. You got to do it as well. But I'm with you. I'm not going to force this into our contest. I'm not going to make people bet this one. But yes, I will be on the Jets. We will put them in our money line, Ron Robin.”
NYJ 39, CIN 38 — Jets beat Bengals 39-38 outright; Jets +6.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Do you want to talk about Patriots-Browns game or no? I don't know what to do with it because it feels like the spot where we should be completely walking away if we know better from the Browns because it's not where they are. It's like we found a winning formula. No, no, I'm on New England. Aren't you on New England with me? Yeah, yeah, yeah, totally. So I am on New England. I don't know how the Browns are getting any points. Dylan Garibaldi is not an NFL quarterback. That's it. I saw this amazing stat. It goes to the Patriots and the Bears, and it's basically about these teams on these four-plus game ATS win streaks, like straight up and against the spread. so those teams that didn't this again evan abram's amazing stat these are those exact teams that didn't make the playoffs last year and now they're on four plus game winning streaks straight up and against the spread in this exact spot they are 14 26 and one against the spread since 2022 they are one and 14 against the spread in this spot so it is like i know exactly we're walking into betting this Patriots team. We're stepping into it. And like, to be clear, like I shouldn't say I bet it. I have not. Other than the Panthers. No, I took six and they were six and a half a couple of books. I took that. I like I have not bet the Falcons. I have not bet the Giants. And I have not bet the Patriots. And I'm not sure that I will. The only bet I have to make you feel better than. Well, hold on. The only game I bet of those four seven to seven and a half point spreads is the Panthers. And that's only because I bet it in the summer when I thought the line would be much shorter because I was so in on the Panthers. Go ahead. So just this year, this feels like a variable stat. The Patriots, when they go up by a touchdown or more, so six plus points, they are 5-0 straight up and against the spread this season. That's why you bet it. You bet variable. Exactly. That's what I'm like thinking in this game, I'm trying to throw out all the other numbers where it's like that sums up the variable type of team he's going to be this year where it's like, if he gets up a lead in this game I just how do the Browns come back So Chad right We should try to avoid this one I don think I going to be able to I will be shocked come Sunday morning Like I going to probably bet in the Patriots minus seven I just I can get over how different this Browns team is on the road and how bad of a spot it is for their quarterback. So yeah, it just. Terrible.”
NE 32, CLE 13 — Patriots beat Browns 32-13, covering -7 (ESPN box score).
“Dallas at Denver. Denver minus three now. This was Chad's choice when it was three and a half. It moved in my direction basically because I move lines. And so nothing really moving me off of this pick other than nightmares of Bo Nix throwing into empty spots in the middle of a zone,”
DEN 44, DAL 24 — Broncos beat Cowboys 44-24, covering -3 (ESPN box score).
“I will still back this Broncos team, especially at minus three. [1:06:43] I think that's a great number. [1:06:45] It makes me nervous. [1:06:46] I'm not going to lie, but I'm in. [1:06:48] I'm totally in.”
DEN 44, DAL 24 — Broncos beat Cowboys 44-24, covering -3 (ESPN box score).
“It's Pittsburgh plus three. [1:06:55] Purely a play on the Steelers as dogs at home.”
GB 35, PIT 25 — Packers beat Steelers 35-25; Steelers +3 failed to cover (ESPN box score).
“I don't know who's betting Green Bay minus 3.5 other than smart professionals because the public, they're taking the threes. They're happy to take the minus threes on this Packers team. So what we really have to dive into is just what we talked a little bit about with Tomlin after his defense gets embarrassed. He bounces back. You know, the numbers prove that out. After allowing 30-plus points, Tomlin's defense is 29-12-1 against the spread. 71%. That's insane. Let the greatest of all time look at your work. When they're at home after a bad defensive performance like that, 21-8-1. 72% under Tomlin against the spread. So it's like, all right, those are stats we were looking for. That proves at our point that he gets his defenses up after those type of games. And a lot of it's being made in the media about Rodgers playing against his former team. The trends actually don't point to that being a good spot. Basically, every quarterback that's played their former team failed to cover, except Drew Brees, who covered and beat the Chargers. So I guess historically, it shows that these guys get in their own heads. It's a big moment, and it's tough for them to just play the game, not overthink things and get emotional playing their former team. But we also have some nice historical stuff on our side. The Packers just aren't good in Pittsburgh. Their last six games are only six the last 50 years. So the last time they won was in 1970. And, you know, it's crazy to think Pittsburgh, the last time they started that run of beating Green Bay at home, it was Terry Bradshaw beating, you know, a Bart Starr-led team. So it's been a long time. You're betting Green Bay, you're betting on something that hasn't happened in 50 years, people. So I love all those trends. that point to Tomlin. I love that we talked about with the defense. They seem to get right in these exact spots. And I just think our view of Green Bay is right, that they're just – something's wrong with them. They're not fully formed. The offense is just a little off. Their defense still isn't right. I think we're getting a good value here on this Pittsburgh team that we talked about. They got embarrassed last week. Their defense got embarrassed. Tomlin usually has those guys bounce back in the spot. So, trends love it. We love it. Can't avoid it. Going to hammer this one. It'll probably be one of my bigger bets this week.”
GB 35, PIT 25 — Packers beat Steelers 35-25; Steelers +3.5 failed to cover (ESPN box score).
“We're betting into a guy we haven't seen play at a high number, but I disagree with the market. It's minus six and a half. I think that's right. If he is fully go and practice moving well, I mean, they're going to get guys back on their own defense too. The Ravens here is just a terrible spot for this Bears team. They're just walking into a team with a month of frustration, fully healthy after being well-rested by a week. It's like, can the Bears do it? Yeah, we've seen them pull the rabbit out of their ass a couple times this year. They've been, like we talked about, they've been one of those impressive teams that they've going to earn that right to be a wildcard team if they keep winning those close games. So could they play tight? Sure. But the Ravens, we know the Ravens, we bet usually this is the type of game they absolutely roll. It's an NFC team. Lamar just doesn't lose to them. Yeah, it's it's a game where even if you're not confident about this Ravens team, you just got to trust the number. If this was a fully healthy, we knew Lamar was all good. This would probably be closer to eight and a half, nine. So I think we're still getting value on this line. I'm going to take it. I'm happy to hear that you're on it as well, the minus six and a half.”
BAL 30, CHI 16 — Ravens beat Bears 30-16, covering -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“So, yeah, number-wise, like I said, my model is at six. I'm still going to take the Patriots. I probably would still take them if it was minus seven and a half.”
NE 32, CLE 13 — Patriots beat Browns 32-13, covering -7 (ESPN box score).
“So I guess I'll trust the model here, try to take my human aspect out, and I'll give out the Eagles still, and I'll bet the Eagles. But I felt way better at 6.5, like you said. Now it's getting closer to 7.5. So I'll take the 7 now before it moves to that number.”
PHI 38, NYG 20 — Eagles beat Giants 38-20, covering -7 (ESPN box score).
“give me Houston minus one I want to play a game Simon Says Simon Says presented by Hard Rock Better Houston Texans minus one give it to me”
HOU 26, SF 15 — Texans beat 49ers 26-15, covering -1 (ESPN box score).
“Tennessee at Indy. Indy is a 13. and a half point favorite. Simon, our beliefs are being tested. That's all I can say about this. Yeah, we're supposed to be in Tennessee, but I don't care. I'll take the Colts. Are you taking the Colts or are we just, are we, like you're actively going to take the Colts here? Yeah, and I'll throw them”
IND 38, TEN 14 — Colts beat Titans 38-14, covering -13.5 (ESPN box score).
“it's the Tennessee team that probably is a good number 14 and a half 14 but at 13 and a half I'll take the Colts”
IND 38, TEN 14 — Colts beat Titans 38-14, covering -13.5 (ESPN box score).
“The Denver Broncos minus three will be Chad's choice.”
DEN 44, DAL 24 — Broncos beat Cowboys 44-24, covering -3 (ESPN box score).
“I hope people were listening because I bet it at three and a half. I know you did too. How do we feel at three?”
GB 35, PIT 25 — Packers beat Steelers 35-25; Steelers +3.5 failed to cover (ESPN box score).
“The pros might be right on Green Bay, but I can't avoid it, especially at plus three and a half. Couldn't avoid it. Plus three. Still love it.”
GB 35, PIT 25 — Packers beat Steelers 35-25; Steelers +3 failed to cover (ESPN box score).
“I just feel so much better betting a good defense against a terrible Miami team and a two-eighth quarterback who doesn't travel. We're going with Cleveland. I feel good about it. All right. Our final five. Cleveland minus two and a half.”
CLE 31-6 MIA — Browns beat Dolphins 31-6; Cleveland -2.5 covers by 22.5 (ESPN box score).
“against the blitz so we're gonna need them to get pressure with four i gotta do it i gotta stay on the chargers side so we can force this one in i'm with it like i said there's a lot of games i really like this this week they're minus one and a half in our contest yet so we're getting a good number it's a good matchup I do like the Chargers”
IND 38-24 LAC — Colts beat Chargers 38-24; Los Angeles -1.5 busts, losing outright by 14 (ESPN box score).
“[26:19] Tennessee, 7.5. [26:21] Got to be in one of our five.”
NE 31-13 TEN — Patriots beat Titans 31-13; Tennessee +7.5 busts, losing outright by 18 (ESPN box score).
“[31:01] We got Detroit. [31:02] In the contest we play, they're at minus 4.5.”
DET 24-9 TB — Lions beat Buccaneers 24-9 on Monday Night Football; Detroit -4.5 covers by 10.5 (ESPN box score).
“[31:07] And we're playing Houston. [31:08] We get them at 3.5.”
SEA 27-19 HOU — Seahawks beat Texans 27-19 on Monday Night Football; Houston +3.5 busts, losing outright by 8 (ESPN box score).
“Saints, they're plus six and a half at home against the Bucs. again you don't have to grab it if you don't want to so early I can probably see it going up it's just going to be only professionals grabbing the Saints at this point but I just I like that number it Kingdom River 6 so I am grabbing it”
TB 23-3 NO — Buccaneers beat Saints 23-3; New Orleans +6.5 busts, losing outright by 20 (ESPN box score).
“We got a Tomlin spot. Pittsburgh plus three at home against Greenback. Oh, goodness. We got to do that. So very interesting to open that plus three because I know right away we're going to grab that.”
GB 35-25 PIT — Packers beat Steelers 35-25; Pittsburgh +3 busts, losing outright by 10 (ESPN box score).
“division so i i agree with you though there are games i like more it's just i have taken a position on this one i'm betting the raiders and like i said i was hoping i was going to get the 13 the pros they have the same number as i do if they've they've they've come in it never touched 13 it only got up to 12 and a half like chet said it's a dead number not going to be one of our bets most likely but yeah i i do like the raiders in the spot”
KC 31-0 LV — Chiefs shut out Raiders 31-0; Las Vegas +12.5 busts, losing outright by 31 (ESPN box score).
“calls miami at cleveland cleveland is a two and a half point favorite this was chad's choice the two and a half lasted for about 24 hours after our show and it got bumped up to three because i move lines we know that the better is buying it back moving back down to two and a half I'm going to be honest, and I didn't know this was going to be in sharp calls, but I could have predicted it I would have felt better if it stayed at three for a little bit longer I kind of surprised by the buyback And then I will tell you also the fact that over the past 24 hours Tua has been taking blowback for his comments about the team meetings and the players-only meetings, and now he's apologizing. And Mike McDaniel gave him a little bit of grief at a press conference about it. That worries me. It worries me because when those teams are at their lowest and you think you've got it nailed, that's when you end up getting burned a little bit. I'm still on the Browns.”
CLE 31-6 MIA — Browns beat Dolphins 31-6; Cleveland -2.5 covers by 22.5 (ESPN box score).
“Simon, on Tuesday's show, you said take Minnesota plus two and a half. I really hope people were paying attention, and I hope they stopped whatever they were doing whenever they heard that to go get the Vikings at two and a half, because it's now at one and a half. It might come back, though. obviously that's the professional side that money's come in, but we talked about the risk with this bet and taking this position was, I didn't know the injury report, right? We were doing that on Tuesday. JJ McCarthy did practice, which to me, I don't know about you, Chad. I did not make this bet to bet on JJ McCarthy against a Fangs defense.”
PHI 28-22 MIN — Eagles beat Vikings 28-22; Minnesota +2.5 busts, losing outright by 6 (ESPN box score).
“We sit here right now, I've taken a pretty large position on this Tennessee team at plus seven.”
NE 31-13 TEN — Patriots beat Titans 31-13; Tennessee +7 busts, losing outright by 18 (ESPN box score).
“Tennessee Titans plus seven. [39:33] That is our brass balls bet of the week.”
NE 31-13 TEN — Patriots beat Titans 31-13; Tennessee +7 busts, losing outright by 18 (ESPN box score).
“Maybe we'll land on two. We're getting one and a half almost every book right now. That's such a great number. So you don't have to take it here at Hard Rock. Hard Rock is usually a sharper book. We've seen they usually get smart money coming in on certain sides. So Hard Rock could easily get up to two and a half. I could see professionals keep taking this Chargers side. For all of you out there, shop around. Find the one and a half. It's out there. I know the juice isn't great. It's usually minus 115, minus 112. But I think it's worth paying in this spot with this line on this Chargers team.”
IND 38-24 LAC — Colts beat Chargers 38-24; Los Angeles -1.5 busts, losing outright by 14 (ESPN box score).
“New York Giants at Denver. I don't think we need to spend too much time on this. I don't think it's going to make it. I love it. I totally love it. It never got to the 6.5 like I was hoping it would. It actually is moving closer to 7.5. You can see the juice and it's heading in that direction. So my final statement on the game, I think there's a defensive advantage for the Broncos. I think it's a home advantage for the Broncos. I think it's a coaching advantage for the Broncos. I don't think that Cam Scadaboo and Jackson Dart have seen anything close to what the Broncos can do to confuse them, to stop the run, to make it challenging, to lock down their outside receivers with Pat Sertain when they don't have Malik neighbors. Massive situational advantage to me. I bet it at seven.”
DEN 33-32 NYG — Broncos beat Giants 33-32 on a field goal as time expired; Denver -7 busts, winning by only 1 (ESPN box score).
“I took a position Sunday night on Giants 7.5, and that's honestly, that's it.”
DEN 33-32 NYG — Broncos beat Giants 33-32 on a field goal as time expired; New York +7.5 covers, losing by only 1 (ESPN box score).
“First up, we've got Detroit as a five-and-a-half point favorite at home against Tampa Bay. Open to five-and-a-half. Got that down to four and a half. We loved it on Tuesday when it was four and a half. We both bet into it at four and a half.”
DET 24-9 TB — Lions beat Buccaneers 24-9 on Monday Night Football; Detroit -4.5 covers by 10.5 (ESPN box score).
“Last game on the board, Houston. I loved it the other day, a plus three and a half. I nearly made it. Chad's choice. They're visiting Seattle. Late night, Monday night, doubleheader. I'm totally opposed to it. I could go Troy Aikman crazy on this idea. But until this morning, I was surprised and concerned that it had not moved from three and a half down to three. And then this morning it did. And so that was kind of the validation. You know I need validation. You needed that? I need validation and positive feedback all the time in every way. And that moving from 3.5 to 3 was the validation I needed on a Thursday morning. So I feel great. I feel great. I love it. Let's bet it. It's already bet for me at 3.5.”
SEA 27-19 HOU — Seahawks beat Texans 27-19 on Monday Night Football; Houston +3.5 busts, losing outright by 8 (ESPN box score).
“As you sit here right now my biggest position is if you can get the Houston three and a half join me”
SEA 27-19 HOU — Seahawks beat Texans 27-19 on Monday Night Football; Houston +3.5 busts, losing outright by 8 (ESPN box score).
“So the underdog parlay, Vikings, Cowboys, Jets, Falcons, Texans, the favorite parlay.”
Underdog ML parlay busts: Vikings lost to Eagles 22-28; Cowboys beat Commanders 44-22 (won); Jets lost to Panthers 6-13; Falcons lost to 49ers 10-20; Texans lost to Seahawks 19-27 (ESPN box scores).
“in his career we got to take the bears in that spot especially at Minus 225. Patriots, they're minus 345. I'm not crazy about that one. It feels like that's been bet up. I mean, it's literally getting 90% of the money in the bets right now, so that is pretty crazy. But we only have so many options, so we have to put that one in. Give me the Chargers, minus 130. Really like that spot for this Chargers team. That'll help us eat up some of these big chalk favorites we're taking, which, again, Green Bay, we can put them in there. They're minus 345. I know you love Denver. I'm on board with it. They're minus 360. And the last one we have to get in there, Detroit minus 250 right now. Well, that's six. Yeah, yeah, because I want to put them in in case people miss. If you don't want to put the Steelers in, if you don't want to put the Chiefs adjusted line in, I want to give out a plenty of options. That's six after those two. Green Bay, Bears, Patriots, Chargers, Detroit, and Denver. I like it. Again, I did six last week. I'll do six again this week.”
Favorite ML parlay busts: Packers beat Cardinals 27-23 (won); Bears beat Saints 26-14 (won); Broncos beat Giants 33-32 (won); Chargers lost to Colts 24-38; Patriots beat Titans 31-13 (won); Lions beat Buccaneers 24-9 (won) — Chargers leg loses the parlay (ESPN box scores).
“I just think the Bengals are the right side at five and a half.”
CIN 33-31 PIT — Bengals beat Steelers 33-31 on a game-winning field goal; Cincinnati +5.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Like this is a Jags line. Like a three, shop around, there's still threes out there. I'd be on the Jaguars here because, like Chad said, But these international games are sloppy.”
LAR 35-7 JAX — Rams routed Jaguars 35-7 in London; Jacksonville +3 busts, losing outright by 28 (ESPN box score).
“The Cleveland Browns minus two and a half are Chad's choice.”
CLE 31-6 MIA — Browns beat Dolphins 31-6; Cleveland -2.5 covers by 22.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'll take it I'm on it with you the pros are on it too we're seeing a couple books already pop at three So definitely grab it while you can. I mean, unfortunately it is minus 120, but I think it's worth paying that for this line at minus two and a half.”
CLE 31-6 MIA — Browns beat Dolphins 31-6; Cleveland -2.5 covers by 22.5 (ESPN box score).
“So, Simon says, give me the plus two and a half on this Vikings team.”
PHI 28-22 MIN — Eagles beat Vikings 28-22; Minnesota +2.5 busts, losing outright by 6 (ESPN box score).
“to come back he definitely is coming yeah it's down to four and a half now so you know detroit's got injuries they got guys getting suspended you expect expect man campbell historically bounce back game against a Baker team that yeah this is technically a Baker line this is Gritty Baker usually covers back doors this number he is so due for a bad Baker game three pick Baker game like we know that he has that in his bag It Baker So it all there for the bounce back Detroit shockingly make this number minus six and a half So, like, can't believe it. It's really about the injuries to this Bucs team, I believe, and all the injuries they've had compared to Detroit, who does have injuries. But historically, their offense in these spots just rolled teams. And I'm going to dive into the trends and stuff, But I just feel like every time Campbell has a day where their fourth downs don't work, like the previous game, the next game they go five for five on fourth downs or whatever it is. I know I'm probably just making that up, but it feels that way because he's a 70% cover. Like, they didn't cover last game. Usually these are the spots they bounce back and cover. So I know. I know, Chad. It's sickening. It's my guy, Baker. He's been so good to me. He's one of the few guys who I've just been betting every week. And it's just he's just, you know, don't need to watch because he's going to win it for me. but I do watch because I love the ride. But yeah, this is a Detroit number, Detroit line, and I'll probably end up on that side. I'm so glad to hear you say that because I didn't want to have a fight about this because I love Detroit here. I'm worried about the lack of corners and Brian Branch has already been suspended. He can appeal. He might be able to play this weekend, but... He's going to lose that appeal. I think we got to expect that he's not going to be playing this weekend. It's a lion's line. Are you kidding me? The Lions at home in a dome. Jared Goff at home in a dome in his career. So this includes the Rams, but mostly the Lions. 69% against the spread. This is the spot. Hello, Detroit. You've won my heart. You got to back the Lions here. I love the Lions here.”
DET 24-9 TB — Lions beat Buccaneers 24-9 on Monday Night Football; Detroit -4.5 covers by 10.5 (ESPN box score).
“yeah i talked a little sunday night that i i saw the line i was like oh my god i'm gonna have to back detroit aren't i um and surprisingly only real bet i made is the under in this game total I think was 53 and a half and it's come down to 53 still like that under”
DET 24-9 TB — Lions beat Buccaneers 24-9 on Monday Night Football, combining for 33 points; Under 53 covers (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Texans at plus three and a half, the first bet that I actually made.”
SEA 27-19 HOU — Seahawks beat Texans 27-19 on Monday Night Football; Houston +3.5 busts, losing outright by 8 (ESPN box score).
“Give me Houston plus three and a half.”
SEA 27-19 HOU — Seahawks beat Texans 27-19 on Monday Night Football; Houston +3.5 busts, losing outright by 8 (ESPN box score).
“I still like the Panthers at plus three and a half”
CAR 30, DAL 27 — Panthers beat Cowboys 30-27 outright; Panthers +3.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“and a three and a half in the contest. I got to take it, brother. look the only thing that is starting to scare me a little bit is there's potential weather and wind impacting the game yeah and like that could turn it into a much lower scoring game right that could change how these teams approach the passing game and see what it'll do to their ability to move the ball downfield but i and look the cowboys javante williams has been great this year but things trending for Chiba Hubbard to play again even then Rico Dowdle had 200 yards rushing last week so I still going to be on the side of the Panthers here”
CAR 30, DAL 27 — Panthers beat Cowboys 30-27 outright; Panthers +3.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Cleveland at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh currently a six-point favorite. Look, we've been touting the Steelers every show this week. Tuesday, we loved them at four and a half. Thursday, we loved them at five and a half. It's now six, trending. six and a half. It's going to be a bigger number than what we have been saying people should choose all week. Four and a half in our contest, Lions Lock on Wednesday, reminder to people. I think anyone who is watching right now, you've lost the value on the Steelers. Most places, it's probably trending to six and a half. So you're just not getting the best number. But geez, the Steelers rested with just about everybody back. Still like him in the contest for sure.”
PIT 23, CLE 9 — Steelers beat Browns 23-9; margin of 14 covers Steelers -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“I have no doubt we will be down three heading to half with this Pittsburgh side. That's just how it is when you're taking Tom as a favorite. But like Chad said, we bet it all week. I bet it four. I bet it four and a half. I've even bet it still this morning. It's five and a half. I bet it again because I'm like Chad. I think it's going to keep going up to six, six and a half as the public wakes up here early in the morning. So four and a half contest. Can't avoid it. Got to put it in, Chad.”
PIT 23, CLE 9 — Steelers beat Browns 23-9; margin of 14 covers Steelers -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“You and I have both been betting the Chiefs. We've been betting the Chiefs since it was at one and a half, two, two and a half.”
KC 30, DET 17 — Chiefs beat Lions 30-17; margin of 13 covers Chiefs -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“sunday night and like you said i you could have maybe talked me out of the chat this morning if it was two and a half in our contest at one and a half this has been locked in for us since tuesday like this is one of the first bets i put in for us no brainer can't avoid it we are all in on these”
KC 30, DET 17 — Chiefs beat Lions 30-17; margin of 13 covers Chiefs -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“Now it's at nine, nine and a half, nine at Hard Rock, nine and a half other places. In our contest, it's six and a half. I'm not recommending anybody play it at nine and a half, but sorry, folks, we got to talk about it. We've liked the Colts all week at a good number. Now it's exploded. How do we not play this?”
IND 31, ARI 27 — Colts beat Cardinals 31-27; margin of 4 falls short of Colts -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Like not someone you want starting for you, let alone against a Colts team that just looks like an absolute juggernaut. So can we get burned? Could the Colts finally have a really bad game and we get burned by it? Sure. And they're coming off, what, a 30, 40 point win against the Raiders last week. But I just think they're rolling. They're such a good team. Arizona feels like the totally opposite. They're just not as well coached in the sense. And yeah, this is, like we said, all about the number. Six and a half, no brainer. Got to put it in the contest. It's a number play.”
IND 31, ARI 27 — Colts beat Cardinals 31-27; margin of 4 falls short of Colts -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“so to me we're we're we're compromising really on the saints and the patriots where we just completely disagree and and the raiders i feel like you don't love but you still bet it and you can bet it yeah like i said i bet it and i completely see your rationale and like i told you the trends also point to it being yes technically a good spot for this raider team which again i I couldn't believe they exist because this Raiders team just seems dreadful in so many ways. But, yeah, I just locked it in, brother. We got Chiefs, Raiders, Panthers, Pittsburgh, Colts. Our final picks are Carolina plus 3.5. Steelers minus 4.5. Colts minus six and a half. Chiefs minus one and a half. Raiders minus four and a half.”
LV 20, TEN 10 — Raiders beat Titans 20-10; margin of 10 covers Raiders -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“And I personally have only bet this three and a half. So I don't want to be giving out the three on this Carolina side.”
CAR 30, DAL 27 — Panthers beat Cowboys 30-27 outright; Panthers +3.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“we talked about it on Tuesday and both like the Chargers. The line had dropped from four and a half to four. That's where I actually bet it.”
LAC 29, MIA 27 — Chargers beat Dolphins 29-27; margin of 2 falls short of Chargers -4 (ESPN box score).
“of three and a half on the saints three and a half um took positions on pittsburgh still would i guess the five and a half but obviously i feel much better when it was in the fours”
PIT 23, CLE 9 — Steelers beat Browns 23-9; margin of 14 covers Steelers -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“But yeah, I'm still in the Saints. And like my view of it was to get the number before it moved. Because I was just like, okay, the public will be on the Patriots here. Will the pros join me on the Saints side? Will they bet this down to three? I feel like Hard Rock's the only one that moved. Like if you want the three and a half, there are so many out there. And I think I'll get back there.”
NE 25, NO 19 — Patriots beat Saints 25-19; Saints lost by 6, missing Saints +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“hands, they should be able to win this game and win this game by margin. So I'm still in the Raiders. Still in Raiders and the professionals are coming on Tennessee. It's like, again, they don't always win. So I'm happy to join Chad and shop around. You can find minus three and a half and I don't care for the suckers here I saw the best laziest stat of the week which”
LV 20, TEN 10 — Raiders beat Titans 20-10; margin of 10 covers Raiders -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I've obviously bet into this. Like, I'm all in on this three. It's like, and I've got guys telling me not to do it. And it's like, I got to touch the hot stove. I can't help it here. This is, the number doesn't make sense. Because once again, if Purdy is out, their number one and number two receivers are out again. You're betting on lightning striking twice with this 49ers team. Like, what happened that Rams game felt so incredibly flukish. Yeah, the Niners. Covering it. The Niners didn't win that game. Right. The Rams lost that game. And even the cover where it's like, You're betting on Matt Jones again to be 20 of 23 passing and not the punt until midway through the fourth quarter. Like, I just feel like the ask is way too big if you're back in this 49ers team. So, like I said, people can be careful here. There's clear. I clearly have a blind spot here. I maybe talked to two other really smart groups that are on this Bucs side, but they're like me. They're scratching their heads a little bit. And like, I don't know. Are we idiots here? Like, this feels like a gift getting minus three on a Bucs team that with all their injuries they do have in their secondary.”
TB 30, SF 19 — Buccaneers beat 49ers 30-19; margin of 11 covers Buccaneers -3 (ESPN box score).
“So I bet the Packers at 14 for a little”
GB 27, CIN 18 — Packers beat Bengals 27-18; margin of 9 falls short of Packers -14 (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Chiefs at minus two.”
KC 30, DET 17 — Chiefs beat Lions 30-17; margin of 13 covers Chiefs -2 (ESPN box score).
“moving before that. It just feels like people are still underestimating the Chiefs. They're overestimating the Lions. The Chiefs offense isn't as bad as people thought it was going to be. The Lions offense, they're going on grass, a little banged up. I don't mind being on the Chiefs here. I kind of like it. I bet the Chiefs at minus two. Yeah, honestly, I do mind. I feel sick to my stomach because I was just trying to find a reason to be under Troy, and I just haven't. I'm on the Chiefs with Chad.”
KC 30, DET 17 — Chiefs beat Lions 30-17; margin of 13 covers Chiefs -2 (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Bears at four and a half.”
CHI 25, WSH 24 — Bears beat Commanders 25-24 outright; Bears +4.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“because I do like the number. I like the 4.5. I bet the 4.5.”
CHI 25, WSH 24 — Bears beat Commanders 25-24 outright; Bears +4.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, give me Panthers plus three and a half.”
CAR 30, DAL 27 — Panthers beat Cowboys 30-27 outright; Panthers +3.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“again chalky bet but I'll take that Steelers minus four yeah it became more clear in the light of day”
PIT 23, CLE 9 — Steelers beat Browns 23-9; margin of 14 covers Steelers -4 (ESPN box score).
“model couldn't lie to me tell me to take cleveland here so unfortunately yeah it's i'm on more chalk i i i want to be on it because there are still some fives out there for cleveland even though hard rock's at four for the steelers so if you do like cleveland the you can join the pros and find that line up there but it's another side i feel like the public is right i feel like the steelers are right and once again very very lazy it feels like of me but the rest of sparity has to be a factor here that has to matter yes like these this ain't week two this is you're deep into the season now week six the guys have been through it right we joke every time that but it's real Sundays are you're going through car crashes like you're literally what these people put their bodies through is insane and you can't make enough of how big of a deal it is to be on three straight real games and then go for international coming back to play this Pittsburgh team so um yeah again chalky bet but I'll take that Steelers minus four yeah it became more clear in the light of day that the Steelers felt like the right side I'm glad we're getting a little bit of a lower number now I'm curious to see what Sharp Calls will say on Thursday but we are in agreement”
PIT 23, CLE 9 — Steelers beat Browns 23-9; margin of 14 covers Steelers -4 (ESPN box score).
“Simon Says, presented by Hard Rock Bet, the Saints plus three and a half.”
NE 25, NO 19 — Patriots beat Saints 25-19; Saints lost by 6, missing Saints +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“underdogs. Look, the Saints had a great comeback against the Giants, so people love the Saints right now. The Patriots had a huge win against the Buffalo Bills in prime time, so everyone's loving Drake May right now. I got an opinion on this game. Interesting. I do too, Chad. Give me them Saints plus three and a half, Simon says. Oh, boy. Call me Simon. What do you want? I want to play a game. What kind of game? Simon Says. Simon Says, presented by Hard Rock Bet, the Saints plus three and a half. Give me your explanation. Pretty simple. The general public, the squares will be loving this Patriots team. And they love it so much, they've already bumped it. This was three. They bumped to the three and a half. I'll take that value on an undervalued Saints team that will be undervalued every week. That's just the way it is, especially against a team that won a game that, let's be honest, they had no right winning. Probably you could even argue covering. It's just so many things went their way, and that's why I thought Vrabel was such a great hire for them because that, to me, was a Vrabel win. Like the way the defense plays, you know, Drake May had some huge big-time throws, but it was also, you know, a game that, to me, that was the worst game the Bills could have possibly played. Like that, between the turnovers, the penalties, all of it, they just, I would burn those jerseys and never wear them again. Those things just felt cursed. whatever it was it felt what i don't again i don't know it just felt like the ball was super slippery to them on that jersey and whatever it is i know it's stupid conspiracy but i would i would not be wearing those again um they do look cool but you're getting a highly overvalued new england team i mean the victory laps guys are taking right now on drake oh yeah drake may is top 10 quarterback mvp drake may is played on an mvp level so these guys are all going to retire because they can still get, this morning, you can still get plus 350 on New England to win that division. So all of you guys I happy for you You all going to retire to your Nantucket and good for you So yeah it peak right now for this team in New England It's not a great match for them, honestly. Like, this Saints team, we talked about it. I think their defense is better than people perceived. They have a lot of veterans. Offensively, I believe they found an identity, and you can attack this Patriots defense. Like, this Patriots defense is not good. We've seen that this year that, you know, they to me have been fortunate. Like the Saints are not a good team, right? So this is another matchup you expect for Abel to be a big advantage here. But to me, it's on the road in a spot where this Saints team, I don't think they're going to get too high from that last win. Like I said, they're a veteran team that's believed in themselves. They've been really good at home this season, which was another reason I liked backing them against that Giants team. And at the end of the day, I think this is going to be another square very sharp. Like it's going to be the squares are going to be on New England. It's going to be the public side. Like you already can see the numbers, all the money, all the tickets have come in on this New England side. Some books have even touched four, but it immediately got bet down by the professionals. So I'd be shocked if this sits at three. I think we could see movement going in that this could drop to three once more professional money comes in. because, like I said, I think more guys are adjusting their model to this Spencer Rattler. He's better than I certainly had him graded coming into the season. He's improved every week. And, yeah, like I said, that Giants game, should they have won 26-14? No, they shouldn't have blown them out. But it's nice to see the public's not overreacting to that. They're overreacting to that Patriots win and drinking the Drake-made Kool-Aid. So this would be a statement win, honestly. Once again, this Patriots team, if they can show me they're mature enough, to handle a big win on Sunday night and go on the road on a short week now because they did play. Their game ended at, what, 1130 midnight Sunday night. That's a tough short week travel to go play the Saints team. So, yeah, it's just about the number. If this was 2.5, I'd have no issue being okay with this Patriots side. But once again, another game I have a minus one on the Saints. So if I have it off by 4.5, I've got to make it. Simon says I can't avoid it. I hate it. I'm all in once again two weeks in a row on the Saints team, but it's just playing the numbers. It's a good number on an undervalued Saints team that I just don't think the public come around on them yet so I getting a good number here just because the Patriots love is its peak right now It insane the stuff I been seeing I wonder you could look at it as the Saints being loved and the Patriots defense actually being undervalued Because don't forget, they played the first, what was it, four games without Christian Gonzalez. who made multiple key plays in that defensive backfield for the Patriots against the Bills. The Patriots top eight in EPA per play, top eight in EPA per pass success rate. Saints defense bottom seven in the league in all of those categories. The line actually did get down to two and a half on Sunday night and then got that back up immediately, even before the Patriots won. So there was some, I think, sharp sentiment on the Patriots at the two and a half. And like, I think Christian Gonzalez in the backfield is a bit of a difference maker here. So what are you trying to say, Chad? Do you like the Saints? You haven't said exactly what you're trying to say. Stop talking around. it give us a pick here i like the patriots”
NE 25, NO 19 — Patriots beat Saints 25-19; margin of 6 covers Patriots -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“The Las Vegas Raiders. Look, they're coming off a blowout. Lowest of the low. The entire world is questioning Gino. I'm getting Pete Carroll against Brian Callahan. I'm getting the Raiders at home where they're going to be more comfortable. I'm getting Tennessee thinking, oh my God, we actually escaped and got a win. third straight road game for a team that has won and covered killer sports 33 68 and 3 against the spread give me the Las Vegas Raiders minus 4.5”
LV 20, TEN 10 — Raiders beat Titans 20-10; margin of 10 covers Raiders -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“but like, I feel like you're on the same page as me. Like you just have to bet these big numbers against the, since the team until they show you something at least two three weeks in a row so we're not even at week one yet um we're like being scared of betting against the bangles i'm just going to keep rolling with it the number can't get big enough but the books are pushing it like this is insane being at 14 and a half at a lot of books 14 at hard rock that's pretty shocking but again it feels warranted that's how bad this bangles team has looked this year”
GB 27, CIN 18 — Packers beat Bengals 27-18; margin of 9 falls short of Packers -14 (ESPN box score).
“that's the type of guy that could maybe flip me to this buffalo side but um i'm with chad you sit here right now i like atlanta like you said one pub one very very public book you can still get plus four and a half i think you got to grab the four and a half i'll do it like i'm with you on It's like that's a key number, a big number.”
ATL 24, BUF 14 — Falcons beat Bills 24-14 outright; Falcons +4.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“And so give me the Bears plus four.”
CHI 25, WSH 24 — Bears beat Commanders 25-24 outright; Bears +4 covers (ESPN box score).
“obviously we're going to take houston at plus three and a half given the way the lines have moved uh over the course of the week with lamar jackson and this was a move that you predicted on tuesday as simon says do we still put it in the contest yep locking in that's a quick one three and a half got to take for Houston”
BAL 10-HOU 44 — Texans routed the Ravens 44-10; Houston's +34 margin easily covers the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“i think in the contest the jets are at plus two and a half i love it but it's the same exact thing as the saints every pro i've talked to is right there with us”
DAL 37-NYJ 22 — Cowboys beat the Jets 37-22; New York lost by 15, missing the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“right all right last game that we can think about and then we'll make a call washington at the la Chargers. This was the second Simon Says. You were prescient on the Texans. You said take the Texans at plus three and a half on Tuesday. The show was live for an hour, maybe two at the most, when that game moved because of all the Lamar Jackson noise to making the Texans a favorite. Jaden Daniels will be playing. Most of the Chargers starting offensive line will not. I'm starting to like this game more than any other game we are picking right now and I know if we leave it out we will lose whatever game we keep in its place that fair it it two and a half still uh in our contest and um it three there two and a half and three out there right now Yeah yeah For people that are betting I grab the three”
LAC 10-WSH 27 — Commanders beat the Chargers 27-10; Washington's +17 margin covers the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“We're doing the Commanders at plus two and a half, but you can get a three with the Commanders out there. So go and get it.”
LAC 10-WSH 27 — Commanders beat the Chargers 27-10; Washington's +17 margin covers the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I think Kyler left for a minute because he had a foot injury my early position hard rock right now in Jersey is minus 5 Colts, super public line, I'll take it.”
ARI 27-IND 31 — Colts beat the Cardinals 31-27; Indianapolis' 4-point margin falls short of the -5 spread (ESPN box score).
“comfortable giving away four points of value it was three points right it's minus one and a half It was their plus one and a half, but they were, they were plus two on Sunday night.”
NO 26-NYG 14 — Saints beat the Giants 26-14; New Orleans' +12 margin covers the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“here trust in the spot hold your nose people this is a gross one give me this commander's team plus two and a half.”
LAC 10-WSH 27 — Commanders beat the Chargers 27-10; Washington's +17 margin covers the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Jets plus two and a half”
DAL 37-NYJ 22 — Cowboys beat the Jets 37-22; New York lost by 15, missing the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Obviously, I bet it. I definitely bet the Jags. at plus three and a half.”
KC 28-JAX 31 — Jaguars beat the Chiefs 31-28 on Monday night; Jacksonville's +3 margin covers the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I did bet the Broncos at four and a half.”
PHI 17-DEN 21 — Broncos beat the Eagles 21-17 with a fourth-quarter comeback; the outright win covers the +4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Like, again, it was the four and a half. I did bet to Denver, but I've been patient on that one. If they get back to four and a half or it gets back to four, that'll probably be another one of my bigger bets.”
PHI 17-DEN 21 — Broncos beat the Eagles 21-17 with a fourth-quarter comeback; the outright win covers the +4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Still going to be on the Panthers especially at plus one and a half”
MIA 24-CAR 27 — Panthers rallied to beat the Dolphins 27-24; Carolina's +3 margin covers the +1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“this is a this is a this is a houston number here plus three and a half i believe yeah the only thing that scared me kind of annoyed me i would have bet it yesterday um i just bet it literally while you were talking your urgency inspired me to make the bet while you were talking”
BAL 10-HOU 44 — Texans routed the Ravens 44-10; Houston's +34 margin easily covers the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“What will this number end up at? Right. Is it going to be a pick? Is this going to flip to Houston being a favorite? Let's get ahead of it. I'm going to grab that three and a half.”
BAL 10-HOU 44 — Texans routed the Ravens 44-10; Houston's +34 margin easily covers the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“But I just feel like the Lions are rolling. Bengals just feel like everything's so bad. I mean, just the coaching disparity here just feels like it's worth another point or two that it should have been bumped up from eight and a half to nine and a half ten so i i people can tell i'm just so out on this bangles team and i know it's probably the side i should be on but i'll take the line side here and i'll i'll take the minus nine and a half if you can find it but like as chad said it's going up”
CIN 24-DET 37 — Lions beat the Bengals 37-24; Detroit's +13 margin covers the -9.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'm definitely going to take Washington at three.”
LAC 10-WSH 27 — Commanders beat the Chargers 27-10; Washington's +17 margin covers the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“if you like the denver side which i do i grab the four and a half but if you like the ego side you”
PHI 17-DEN 21 — Broncos beat the Eagles 21-17 with a fourth-quarter comeback; the outright win covers the +4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“monday night football kansas city visiting the jacksonville jaguars who are currently three and a half point underdogs simon simon chad loves the jacksonville jaguars”
KC 28-JAX 31 — Jaguars beat the Chiefs 31-28 on Monday night; Jacksonville's +3 margin covers the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Let's start with the Chargers. So the Chargers are now six and a half at the New York Giants. We know Jackson Dart is starting for the Giants. this was Chad Love's and I think it's one of the more controversial moves that we made all week just because we don't know what's going to happen with Jackson Dark Jackson Dark as the new starting quarterback for the Giants and it's so freaking chalky to be taking a big favorite I still like him at 6.5 I've bet him at 6.5 I'm not walking away from that”
NYG 21, LAC 18 — Giants beat Chargers 21-18; Los Angeles's -3 margin fails to cover -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“five and a half I am on board with you even at six I bet the Chargers so I'm invested like I'm”
NYG 21, LAC 18 — Giants beat Chargers 21-18; Los Angeles's -3 margin fails to cover -6 (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, look, to me, this is a little bit like you in the Chargers. I like it. I don't love it. I like the three and a half. I like the Tristan Wirfs. The left tackle is back considering the other injuries on Tampa Bay. I like that Guy Wynn is back considering Evans is out. I never worry about Baker and injuries because Baker just balls no matter what. And I do think it's a good spot to fade the Eagles who are probably to me a little bit inflated after what happened last week against the Rams. So I don't love it. I like it.”
PHI 31, TB 25 — Eagles beat Buccaneers 31-25; Tampa Bay's -6 margin fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“stopping the run, and yeah, I'm really just playing the number here. Three and a half just feels like too many points, too much disrespect to a Bucs team. So I know it's scary. Like me and Chad talked about, these two first teams we just talked about, both these teams were 3-0 against the spread. Or I guess the Bucs didn't cover last week, but Chad knows. I mean, we're betting undefeated teams right now for our first two picks. But I just love the number.”
PHI 31, TB 25 — Eagles beat Buccaneers 31-25; Tampa Bay's -6 margin fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Are we crazy for still wanting the Lions at nine and a half? No, this will be a quick one. Love the Lions. Nothing's changed. There's some pros on the other side that like Cleveland, and I get it. But I think our early read in the week was right. It's still right today, and I'll own it. If you're not as confident in this one, I'm really confident. I'll own it later tonight if this doesn't come through. This is probably one of my bigger bets is this Lions side in this spot. And there are nine and a halves out there, people. So go grab it.”
DET 34, CLE 10 — Lions beat Browns 34-10; Detroit's +24 margin covers -9.5 (ESPN box score).
“It's six, five and a half right now, Colts. It's moving. It's now six and a half. Grab it. As soon as we came on this call, because me and Chad were watching that Raiders game live, I was just hammering the Colts five and a half and six and was hoping that's what it would be for this show. So it's already going to six and a half. I'd keep taking it.”
IND 40, LV 6 — Colts beat Raiders 40-6; Indianapolis's +34 margin covers -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“I bet 7 on the Cowboys.”
DAL 40, GB 40 — Packers and Cowboys tied 40-40; Dallas's 0 margin covers +7 (ESPN box score).
“against the Giants. This took a lot of our attention on Tuesday, too much, honestly, because while I was loving it, the Chargers at six. It moved to six and a half before I could grab it while we were talking about it on the show. And it remained the pick that I love. Chad loves the Chargers. I got it at six and a half.”
NYG 21, LAC 18 — Giants beat Chargers 21-18; Los Angeles's -3 margin fails to cover -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“I just I'd heavily bet this one. I really love this number. I don't think you're going to have to force me. I've already bet. I bet it at the worst number. I bet it at three. So I don't feel like there's going to be any arm twisting on this where we've talked about the Chargers. That was my Chad loves pick. We've talked about the box. That was Simon Says.”
PHI 31, TB 25 — Eagles beat Buccaneers 31-25; Tampa Bay's -6 margin fails to cover +3 (ESPN box score).
“It's minus nine as a brass balls game. I'm good for the brass balls. I love Detroit. All right, so then let's do it. Detroit Lions, minus nine. They're going to be our brass balls bet of the week.”
DET 34, CLE 10 — Lions beat Browns 34-10; Detroit's +24 margin covers -9 (ESPN box score).
“New Orleans at Buffalo, speaking of big spreads, this number's at 16 and a half. You had this rated at 17. It was 15 and a half on Sunday. Got up to 16 and a half. actually got back down to 15 and a half. I took the 16,”
BUF 31, NO 19 — Bills beat Saints 31-19; Buffalo's +12 margin fails to cover -16 (ESPN box score).
“I do know some pros that they're not getting off the Daniel Jones train yet. They just think him running this type in the Shanahan type of offense is just working for this Colts team right now. So I know, me and Chad went to three, but I'm glad to say three and a half because that's what's going to be in our contest. So that's what I've been betting all week. It's one of my bigger bets. I'm going to stick with it. Ends up being in our contest. I got no issue with it. I just, I got to trust the Rams in this spot, in this matchup,”
LAR 27, IND 20 — Rams beat Colts 27-20; Los Angeles's +7 margin covers -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“the line has moved in that direction it did move to three and a half it might be three at hard rock right now but i do think there's a mostly three and a halves out there i i'm glad i got the niners at three because i feel really good about the bet right now yeah even three and a half again”
JAX 26, SF 21 — Jaguars beat 49ers 26-21; San Francisco's -5 margin fails to cover -3 (ESPN box score).
“That's really what that keeps telling me. So hold your nose. If you can still get the plus seven, go grab it. I'm praying this is six and a half, so we don't have to put it in a contest, but because of that number, I have to do it. And I really, really, really trust Dak when he's a big dog in the spot.”
DAL 40, GB 40 — Packers and Cowboys tied 40-40; Dallas's 0 margin covers +7 (ESPN box score).
“all right Survivor bills so are we are we not thinking we just going super lazy and taking bills are we are we going to try to be cute and go go houston i've been thinking about it like who are we going to this is the spot we have an oh and three houston team that could easily be three you know at home against the tennessee team that we both agree are lost beyond law and cam ward popped up on the injured list did he really i thought i heard that somewhere interesting well that makes sense i've seen a couple books move to seven and a half which blew me away because again this is another spot where you have if you're betting you have to bet tennessee there all right let's get cute let's take the texans go texans i like it yeah i like it too because it's like the perfect spot”
HOU 26, TEN 0 — Texans beat Titans 26-0 outright; Houston moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“take that plus 185 with Panthers for uh the favorites parlay Bills Lions Chargers Rams yeah love the Rams who's the fifth Texans or Denver I I just I'm like I'm really into those both let's do the Broncos okay all right Survivor”
BUF 31-NO 19; DET 34-CLE 10; NYG 21-LAC 18; LAR 27-IND 20; DEN 28-CIN 3 — Four of five parlay legs won (Bills 31-19, Lions 34-10, Rams 27-20, Broncos 28-3) but the Chargers lost outright to the Giants 21-18, busting the five-team favorites moneyline parlay (ESPN box scores).
“Tampa Bay is a three point dog. This one may be at three at Hard Rock, but it is three and a half in a lot of places and moving in the Ingles direction. And this one I wanna ask you specifically about because you highlighted this on sunday night before we even started talking about games you were saying it was the week to fade the eagles i bet the bucks a plus three um why why is this line”
PHI 31, TB 25 — Eagles beat Buccaneers 31-25; Tampa Bay's -6 margin fails to cover +3 (ESPN box score).
“And this Tampa team has major injuries to our offensive line. They have injuries to their secondary. It might be without Mike Evans. That's why this number is going to keep moving. There's a couple games this week that a lot of lines have moved because of injuries. So I'm going to grab the three and a half just in case the professionals do come in and hit this back down to three,”
PHI 31, TB 25 — Eagles beat Buccaneers 31-25; Tampa Bay's -6 margin fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I took the Falcons plus three.”
ATL 34, WSH 27 — Falcons beat Commanders 34-27; Atlanta's +7 margin covers +3 (ESPN box score).
“chad loves the los angeles chargers minus six couldn't get away from it”
NYG 21, LAC 18 — Giants beat Chargers 21-18; Los Angeles's -3 margin fails to cover -6 (ESPN box score).
“I already bet the Falcons at plus three.”
ATL 34, WSH 27 — Falcons beat the Commanders 34-27 behind a career-high 313-yard game from Michael Penix Jr.; Atlanta +3 covers by 4 (ESPN box score).
“heavily in the Chiefs just winning outright”
KC 22, NYG 9 — Chiefs beat the Giants 22-9; Kansas City wins outright on the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“I am on the Chiefs minus 5.5.”
KC 22, NYG 9 — Chiefs beat the Giants 22-9; Kansas City -5.5 covers by 7.5 (ESPN box score).
“I am on the Chiefs minus 5.5. Simon has generally been with me, but more likely he is heavily invested in the Chiefs' money line above all else in that game. Accurate? Yeah. I bet the 5.5.”
KC 22, NYG 9 — Chiefs beat the Giants 22-9; Kansas City -5.5 covers by 7.5 (ESPN box score).
“I saw 7.5 on the Jets”
TB 29, NYJ 27 — Buccaneers beat the Jets 29-27 on a game-winning FG as time expired; New York +7.5 covers by 5.5 (ESPN box score).
“I have bet the bears at plus one and a half. I'm pretty sure you have too.”
CHI 31, DAL 14 — Bears beat the Cowboys 31-14; Chicago +1.5 covers by 18.5 (ESPN box score).
“Let's talk about Green Bay at Cleveland. So look, the number is 7.5 at Hard Rock Bet right now. It's moved down. It was at 8.5. And you've already pinpointed Cleveland is the sharp side. I do have a confession to make. I had been holding off on this game. And then yesterday afternoon, it was at 8.5. It was 8 or 7.5 at most places. There was one book where it was 8.5. 8.5 minus 110. and I'm like what am I doing like this is the game we are supposed to love betting this is the game where we say to ourselves we know what we're doing we see the money going in the opposite in the browns direction so I felt like I had a little bit of a KPI, for lack of a better term, to get all corporate-y. Like, the majority of the money is on the Packers. We're back in the 0-2 team. That's the trend. I'm not saying it's a Final Five. But, Simon, I'm drawing a line in the sand. Okay?”
CLE 13, GB 10 — Browns beat the Packers 13-10 on a walk-off 55-yard FG as time expired; Cleveland +7.5 covers by 4.5 (ESPN box score).
“And that's why, again, I'm upset. I wish this was two and a half on the show. Two and a half in our contest, no-brainer, easy bet. at one and a half, I'm still probably in on them for our contest because I just think this is such a good spot with such a desperate team in Texans and their defense.”
JAX 17, HOU 10 — Jaguars beat the Texans 17-10; Houston +1.5 busts by 5.5 (ESPN box score).
“i'm not i'm not betting this based on the trends all right i'm betting this”
JAX 17, HOU 10 — Jaguars beat the Texans 17-10; Houston +1.5 busts by 5.5 (ESPN box score).
“Pittsburgh at New England. New England is a one-and-a-half point underdog. Look, I thought this would move towards the Pats. It's moved a little bit in the direction of the Steelers as far as the juice. I'm just really down on the Steelers. And we talked about this on Tuesday. Their defense just isn't very good. I also think Rodgers is pretty pedestrian. Christian Gonzalez, the Patriots defensive back, did practice this week, limited on Wednesday. Do I all of a sudden believe in Vrabel again? You've been telling me I have to believe in Vrabel. Am I believing in Vrabel right now? I know. It feels like we're supposed to in this spot, right? And I know that historically Tomlin's actually struggled in this exact spot, and the trends look at that, and they're just like, okay. It shows that Tomlin, as a favorite, has struggled on the road. He's also struggled historically against his Patriots team. It doesn't matter if Belichick had Brady or Mac Jones or whoever in their quarterback. This has just never been a Frable spot. And Aaron Rodgers, surprisingly, 0-2 in his career playing against New England in New England. So, you know, Frable, for me, I think we're in the alignment of he does bring something to this team. and that's going to show itself all season. It's really about us believing in Drake, May, if we're going to take this spot here, Chad. And that's the toughest spot here for me, us putting this in the contest where I'm betting this. People want to know what side I'm on. I'm betting the Patriots. I'm on the Patriots. I like the number.”
PIT 21, NE 14 — Steelers beat the Patriots 21-14 on a late Rodgers TD pass; New England +1.5 busts by 5.5 (ESPN box score).
“if this is the best i'm going to get for minus three i'm taking the eagles minus three”
PHI 33, LAR 26 — Eagles beat the Rams 33-26; Philadelphia -3 covers by 4 (ESPN box score).
“I'd still take Eagles at three and a half, honestly, minus three and a half.”
PHI 33, LAR 26 — Eagles beat the Rams 33-26; Philadelphia -3.5 covers by 3.5 (ESPN box score).
“But Dallas at Chicago. Chicago on Tuesday was a one-and-a-half point favorite. Now at Hard Rock, they're one-point dogs. Other places, one-and-a-half. You chastised me for not choosing the Bears. Thank God you didn't. On Tuesday. And I'm glad I waited, brother. Yeah. This is how much betters hate Caleb Williams. Maybe they hate the Bears defense. You know, the Bears are dogs. The world is against my hometown of Chicago. It's time to make the Chicago Bears our Brass Balls Bet of the Week. Look, I'm trying to be reasonable about this. I've sent all the charts about how Caleb is, you know, identical to Josh Williams and his stats through these number of games to my buddies, to my son. I've ignored the charts. Why would you do this to yourself? Listen, I've ignored the charts that say he's also identical to Mitch Trubisky through this number of games in his career. I just don't really get why the number has moved so much for the Cowboys who basically allowed Russell Wilson to have the greatest game of his career. That's what I'm betting on. It's more than Caleb bounce back or anything else. It's the number moved too far. Give me the team that's the dog on the move across zero.”
CHI 31, DAL 14 — Bears beat the Cowboys 31-14; Chicago +1.5 covers by 18.5 (ESPN box score).
“So we're betting on that. We're betting on the overreaction. The lines move too much. Hard Rock is plus one. Go get the one and a half. Get the hook because I could easily see Bears up to with 30 seconds”
CHI 31, DAL 14 — Bears beat the Cowboys 31-14; Chicago +1.5 covers by 18.5 (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Chiefs minus five and a half after say the Packers and maybe the Colts it could be the chalkiest play of the week”
KC 22, NYG 9 — Chiefs beat the Giants 22-9; Kansas City -5.5 covers by 7.5 (ESPN box score).
“I bet the five and a half on the Chiefs but the sharp side, the professional side, they're going to be on the Giants at 6.5”
KC 22, NYG 9 — Chiefs beat the Giants 22-9; Kansas City -5.5 covers by 7.5 (ESPN box score).
“But Panthers, I got to do it at five and a half, six if you can find it. It's just too much. And for me, I've just been betting too much on it where I can't stop betting the Panthers.”
CAR 30, ATL 0 — Panthers shut out the Falcons 30-0; Carolina +5.5 covers by a mile (ESPN box score).
“I'm on the Cardinals. The Cardinals are up to like plus three at a couple books. You know, Hard Rock here in Jersey has got plus two and a half, plus two, and it keeps bouncing around.”
SF 16, ARI 15 — 49ers beat the Cardinals 16-15 on a game-winning FG on the final play; Arizona +2.5 covers by 1.5 (ESPN box score).
“our round robin underdog money line runner round robin underdog parlay uh texans um denver Chicago. Love them. We got to put someone a little bit longer in there, but I'm not loving the Browns. Can I get you on the Panthers? Yeah, I can do the Panthers. No problem. Okay, because they're, let me check what their live number is. Plus 200. That's good value. Then we need one more. I honestly want coming into the show. I wanted to do the Rams after seeing that stat by, um, about hurts in the exact spot. I couldn't get there. Should we just do it? Should we keep riding the, the bangles train your, your love? Like that's a weird game. I feel like we didn't talk about the bangles. No, I actually feel great about the bangles. I'm on the Vikings. I have no read on this game. I just feel like the Vikings. You're probably right. You know, they've got so many injuries. I know. Forget about Carson Wentz and you know is Kevin O a quarterback whisperer Who knows but Jake Browning might be awful though Like he I know he had good throws and Jake Browning might be awful though I know he had good throws Jake Browning might be awful Jake Browning also has the confidence of this team And at the end of the day, he's thrown in Jamar Chase. And Jamar Chase looks even the worst quarterback look decent. That's true. And he can overcome turnovers because he's got Jamar Chase. So we're not going to do anything with it. But yeah, let's put the Bengals in.”
JAX 17-10 HOU; LAC 23-20 DEN; CHI 31-14 DAL; CAR 30-0 ATL; MIN 48-10 CIN — Underdog ML round robin busts: Texans lost 10-17 to Jaguars, Broncos lost 20-23 to Chargers, Bengals lost 10-48 to Vikings — Bears (beat Cowboys 31-14) and Panthers (beat Falcons 30-0) won, but three losing legs sink the parlay (ESPN box scores).
“What about our Moneyline Round Robin? The moneymaker. The favorite. Yes. So let's get chalky. Let's go Colts. They might not cover. They're winning that game. We believe in Danny Jones, Indiana Jones, and that Colts team. Chiefs? Chiefs, Eagles. So that's three right there. What are the Bucs? Bucs are seven. I don't mind the Bucs there. Minus 360, that's, yeah, it's not terrible. What about, we got Colts, Chiefs, Eagles. One more. Bucks. I mean, we're just trying to be safe and win people money. I just, Seahawks don't lose that game. Sam Donald's not losing to the Saints in that spot. I was thinking Seahawks or Packers, so let's go with Seahawks.”
IND 41-20 TEN; KC 22-9 NYG; PHI 33-26 LAR; TB 29-27 NYJ; SEA 44-13 NO — Favorite ML round robin cashes: Colts beat Titans 41-20, Chiefs beat Giants 22-9, Eagles beat Rams 33-26, Buccaneers beat Jets 29-27, Seahawks beat Saints 44-13 — all five legs won (ESPN box scores).
“Simon says is Denver plus two and a half.”
LAC 23, DEN 20 — Broncos lost 23-20 to the Chargers on Herbert's late TD and Dicker's game-winning FG; Denver's +2.5 misses by half a point (ESPN box score).
“Simon also loves the Bears minus one and a half.”
CHI 31, DAL 14 — Bears routed the Cowboys 31-14 behind four Caleb Williams TD passes; Chicago -1.5 covers easily (ESPN box score).
“Kansas City, it's at five and a half or six. That's Chad loves love.”
KC 22, NYG 9 — Chiefs beat the Giants 22-9 on Sunday Night Football; Kansas City -5.5 covers by 7.5 (ESPN box score).
“love the number on Sunday. Yeah. When I did the research yesterday, I was really concerned at how much I love the game. It's a great match for the Colts. Nearly made it a Chad loves love nearly. And like, it just felt no, that's, it's so chalky. You're setting yourself up to be disappointed. You're going to look like an idiot. You can't handle that. It will make your Sunday miserable. I've already betted at three. I'm not walking away from that. But geez, Louise, man, that just feels.”
IND 41, TEN 20 — Colts beat the Titans 41-20 behind three Jonathan Taylor rushing TDs; Indianapolis -3 covers by 18 (ESPN box score).
“Rams at Tennessee. contest line is five and a half. It's still five and a half. This was our brass balls bet again. We thought the Rams would be down two O-linemen. They are only down one. Left guard, Steve Avila. Look, I bet it at five and a half.”
LAR 33, TEN 19 — Rams beat Titans 33-19 in Week 2; Tennessee lost by 14, failing to cover +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“i got it at four it five and a half i love cam ward i love this matchup for this tennessee”
LAR 33, TEN 19 — Rams beat Titans 33-19 in Week 2; Tennessee lost by 14, failing to cover +4 (ESPN box score).
“and it's a nice, nice fade next week on this Jets team. because they're, you know, a 60-yard field goal away from being 1-0 from last week and in a spot that it potentially could be 2-0. And it's like I think the general public is still sleeping on this team. And, yeah, once again, we're banking on fields as a dog higher than three, which is usually a good spot to back them. So six and a half, we'll take that every time in the contest. By the way, while you were talking, I started to get nervous that this line was moving in the opposite direction. So I bet the six and a half.”
BUF 30, NYJ 10 — Bills beat Jets 30-10 in Week 2; New York lost by 20, failing to cover +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“That's a big deal. So, you know, the professional side is going to be this Jets side. And we talked about all the teasers, all of it. It's all going to be Bill's money. So, like you, I feel confident in our spot. I'm just so happy we have the 6.5 because we need every point here against Josh Allen.”
BUF 30, NYJ 10 — Bills beat Jets 30-10 in Week 2; New York lost by 20, failing to cover +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“New York Giants at Dallas Dallas at five and a half pretty much settling there we know we got a little bit of grief from wise guys that we were on the square side on Thursday I'm seeing everything everyone is saying Russell Wilson will be better against this Cowboys secondary than he was against the Commander secondary Deron Bland is out for the Cowboys I just looking purely at a quarterback quarterback situation I'm going to bet on Dak at home in a dead number that is lower than six.”
DAL 40, NYG 37 — Cowboys beat Giants 40-37 in overtime in Week 2; Dallas won by 3, failing to cover -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to take it now. Now that's at one and a half for this Eagles side.”
PHI 20, KC 17 — Eagles beat Chiefs 20-17 in Week 2; Philadelphia covers -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“And watching that Denver game, there's a lot of ways Tennessee can make him really uncomfortable. And I like the idea of, you know, we're getting a good number. And that's where I agree with you that if this would be our last one, and again, it's not a final one yet. I have it in there at two and a half. I'm with you, Chad. I take it But my fear and my doubt here is just are we overvaluing this colts team after one week and we both agree they are good and there are some things we really like about them but”
IND 29, DEN 28 — Colts beat Broncos 29-28 on a late field goal in Week 2; Indianapolis covers +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“The books are thinking Tomlin going to motivate the guys or maybe it says more about the Seahawks defense I mean offense and defense but yeah three and a half with a total of 40 when we have a really good defense on the Seahawks side we'll see it's it's obviously we're banking a lot on Sam Darnold but it's it's really about the running scheme and that's where you think you could attack this Pittsburgh team so yeah no need to put it in at a bad number but three and a half people if you want to be on the same side as me I'm I'm taking that three and a half right now.”
SEA 31, PIT 17 — Seahawks beat Steelers 31-17 in Week 2; Seattle covers +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“comfortable with the with the cowboys here i bet him at five and a half and i'm bummed because if i had known about the bland injury and you know could have gotten more half point of value but i don't uh i don't mind the cowboys here”
DAL 40, NYG 37 — Cowboys beat Giants 40-37 in overtime in Week 2; Dallas won by 3, failing to cover -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“Buffalo at New York Jets. New York Jets are six and a half at Hard Rock. Every time this game touches seven, it gets back down to six. On Tuesday, I leaned bills a little bit and you talked me out of it. Another 48 hours of research. I coming around to your side Simon this is our Rock in a hard place hard rock bet of the week New York jets.”
BUF 30, NYJ 10 — Bills beat Jets 30-10 in Week 2; New York lost by 20, failing to cover +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“it is coming in heavy on this Jets team every time it touches seven. So we both love it. I'm going to take the 6.5, and it really is just about the injuries to this Bills team and their secondary.”
BUF 30, NYJ 10 — Bills beat Jets 30-10 in Week 2; New York lost by 20, failing to cover +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Tennessee Titans plus five and a half. For the second week in a row, this team is our Brass Balls Bet of the Week.”
LAR 33, TEN 19 — Rams beat Titans 33-19 in Week 2; Tennessee lost by 14, failing to cover +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“should be four three and a half we're getting a bump because of how bad cam ward and this team look to the general public but um you know the pros they've kept it under six we'll take the five five and a half and uh we talk all the time this this rams team they're actually kind of great in this spot right traveling from west to east they're actually not that terrible but we've seen right stafford is different when he's playing outdoors in these type of games and uh yeah i'm i'm fired up to see what the Tennessee crowd is like because right now the trends are not good about these”
LAR 33, TEN 19 — Rams beat Titans 33-19 in Week 2; Tennessee lost by 14, failing to cover +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“This is going to be our rock in a hard place, hard rock, bet of the week. We're taking the eagles minus one and a half it's going to be one of our favorite five boom lock it done”
PHI 20, KC 17 — Eagles beat Chiefs 20-17 in Week 2; Philadelphia covers -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“of our five favorite picks. And we're going to ride or die with this Eagles team. In fact, I'm making a change right now. I'm making an executive change. This is our rock in a hard place, hard rock, bet of the week. Because we will be so against what the conventional wisdom is in terms of betting on the Chiefs as dogs. We will be so against the wise guys on this game. I am transitioning. This is going to be our rock in a hard place, hard rock, bet of the week. We're taking the eagles minus one and a half it's going to be one of our favorite five boom lock it done”
PHI 20, KC 17 — Eagles beat Chiefs 20-17 in Week 2; Philadelphia covers -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“overvalued right now and somehow after that win this vikings team is somehow becoming undervalued and it's just playing the number minus three i got to take it at this value yeah i probably lean the vikings at minus three”
ATL 22, MIN 6 — Falcons beat Vikings 22-6 in Week 2; Minnesota lost outright, failing to cover -3 (ESPN box score).
“But now when I really dive into it, it's like three and a half. That's the right number for this game. So I am on the Jaguars side.”
CIN 31, JAX 27 — Bengals beat Jaguars 31-27 on a late TD in Week 2; Jacksonville lost by 4, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Do you want to do a favorites parlay at this point? Yeah, let's get super chalky with it. Start out with our guys, Dallas Cardinals. We like them. I think they're a team that could easily win against that Panthers team that looks like I already talked about Rams. I just – McVay wins those games. He might not cover, but he wins those games. A nice little hedge against our own bet, which I always love, taking those spots. It's – I know it's painful, Chad, but don't we have to do the Lions? I was just going to say. Are they Lions going 0-2? Lions, to me, are automatically in there. And the last one, again, I want to hear your view on it. Oh, I guess we have to go Bills. Never mind. We'll go Bills.”
All five parlay legs won outright in Week 2: Cowboys beat Giants 40-37 (OT), Cardinals beat Panthers 27-22, Rams beat Titans 33-19, Lions beat Bears 52-21, Bills beat Jets 30-10 — parlay cashes (ESPN box scores).
“he loves the seattle seahawks plus three what that's the shocker of the day this is your favorite bet now i can't really find one that i love love love bring back bullying america um yeah that's i'm shocked i i like this number two i have no fear that it's up to three if anything i'm hoping more public money comes up and the books have to shift it again to three and a half because right”
SEA 31, PIT 17 — Seahawks beat Steelers 31-17 in Week 2; Seattle covers +3 (ESPN box score).
“says, give me the Vikings, minus four... and a half.”
ATL 22, MIN 6 — Falcons beat Vikings 22-6 in Week 2; Minnesota lost outright, failing to cover -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“Are you still seeing value on this? On Sunday night, you were liking the Colts. Where do you stand now? Yeah, another spot. I loved it. Couldn't believe it opened at three. Took the value Sunday. Bet it again yesterday. Now, like you just said, it's down to two. I'd still take that.”
IND 29, DEN 28 — Colts beat Broncos 29-28 on a late field goal in Week 2; Indianapolis covers +2 (ESPN box score).
“again chad was on the other episode side when this got to two and a half i immediately hit the patriots side again same as you though just dipping my toes in because i don't know how”
NE 33, MIA 27 — Patriots beat Dolphins 33-27 in Week 2; New England covers +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“So right now, just to recap, we've got chargers at three and a half. We already covered that one.”
LAC 27-21 KC — Chargers beat Chiefs 27-21 in Sao Paulo; Los Angeles won by 6, covering the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“The contest line is five and a half. Book it. Locked in. So, like, again, one of the five plays I put in on Tuesday, Cleveland plus five and a half.”
CIN 17-16 CLE — Bengals beat Browns 17-16; Cleveland lost by 1, covering the +5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Baltimore at Buffalo. The hard rock bet line is Baltimore minus one. Full disclosure, I played at minus one. We talked about it on the show. it was our rock in a hard place, hard rock bet of the week, Baltimore at minus one. We don't love playing games where the line is flipped from Baltimore as an underdog to Baltimore as a favorite. Those are scary, sticky spots to play. But in the contest lines we play, it's a plus one and a half. We're locking it in.”
BUF 41-40 BAL — Bills beat Ravens 41-40; Baltimore lost by 1, covering the +1.5 spread (ESPN game recap).
“Miami, plus one and a half, Chad. This is your baby. You love it still. Are you getting cold feet? It's another spot that it's super public. It's super chalky. But I told Chad I can squirm my eyes and I see it. I see exactly what he's saying in this matchup. that it's Miami two indoors against a really bad secondary everybody's healthy this is not a banged up Miami team so it's tough it's tough I see exactly what you're saying but um yeah it's I love it I want it I I I'm so glad you're listing it I actually had it on the list”
IND 33-8 MIA — Colts beat Dolphins 33-8; Miami lost by 25, busting the +1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So the final, remember we had the Chargers, so we're already 1-0. The final four for today, Cleveland plus five and a half. Baltimore, we liken it minus one. It's plus one and a half in our contest. The Dolphins plus one and a half. It's about plus one, plus one and a half in most books. No difference. Jags minus two and a half It been bet up to four and a half in a lot of books so minus four at hard rock bet so those are the picks as of right now that what we going to put in that what we will be”
JAX 26-10 CAR — Jaguars beat Panthers 26-10; Jacksonville won by 16, covering the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I've already bet Miami minus one and a half against the Patriots at home. I love it.”
NE 33-27 MIA — Patriots beat Dolphins 33-27; Miami lost by 6, busting the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So this number at Hard Rock is already up to plus one, Chiefs. So I'm going to grab the Eagles now, and I'll maybe take a big position and buy back later on on the Chiefs if that becomes, you know, if this gets up to plus three, I don't have a choice.”
PHI 20-17 KC — Eagles beat Chiefs 20-17; Philadelphia won by 3, covering the -1 spread (ESPN box score).
“and I was shocked they hung a minus four and a half and um you know Lions at home minus four and a half against a Bears team that could what me and Chad think should be happening is them having a very emotional win on Monday night maybe you get better value but if they get rolled here this number could easily get up to six and a half like this Lions number could shoot up if this Bears This team does not look right and doesn't look prepared. So that's a number that jumped out. I grabbed it just thinking the public most likely wouldn't be on the Lions.”
DET 52-21 CHI — Lions beat Bears 52-21; Detroit won by 31, covering the -4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Another line that jumped out that I grabbed it just because we talked about the key number of two and a half. Seahawks, I'm going back to the world. They're playing Pittsburgh. And crazy ending to their game. Like just an insane, flukish end. And I think the Seahawks in this game would have been at a pick, honestly. If they would have won that game at home, I think they would have got more respect from the general public. Feels like we're getting a free point and a half, two points here. And I'll say this about Pittsburgh. They have a bunch of stuff you can really attack on their defense. Like their secondary is banged up. They have major issues if they have a really banged up secondary because Justin Fields looked like an all-pro passer. That's a problem. So just looking at this matchup, it really favors the Seahawks team. the fact that they're coming off this type of brutal loss, you know, I'm not going to make a rush to take this one. Just know this is a position I'm already taking that, you know, just like the Jets, I can see the public liking Pittsburgh in this spot.”
SEA 31-17 PIT — Seahawks beat Steelers 31-17; Seattle won outright, covering the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So just early bet, I've already bet at Hard Rock here, plus six and a half, Give me the Panthers.”
ARI 27-22 CAR — Cardinals beat Panthers 27-22; Carolina lost by 5, covering the +6.5 spread (ESPN game recap).
“I grabbed it at plus three.”
LV 20-13 NE — Raiders beat Patriots 20-13; Las Vegas won outright, covering the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Even though I am on the Raiders plus three because our week two line that going to get like you just said the media hype”
LV 20-13 NE — Raiders beat Patriots 20-13; Las Vegas won outright, covering the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Browns were six and a half at one point. That's the number I've just been hammering for months, hammered at six, kept hitting at five and a half. I'm still betting at five.”
CIN 17-16 CLE — Bengals beat Browns 17-16; Cleveland lost by 1, covering the +5 spread (ESPN box score).
“This week our brass balls bet of the week Tennessee Titans plus eight against the Denver Broncos. And we're putting this in the freaking contest, brother.”
DEN 20-12 TEN — Broncos beat Titans 20-12; Tennessee lost by exactly 8, pushing the +8 spread (ESPN box score).
“Baltimore is visiting Buffalo at Hard Rock Bet. The Ravens are now a one point favorite. That's a big move, folks, because when we did the show on Tuesday, they were one and a half point underdogs, which means the Baltimore Ravens are our rock and a hard place. Bet of the week presented by Hard Rock. This one is gratis for our friends at Hard Rock Bet. Listen, we liked the Ravens when it was one and a half and they were dogs. we don't love betting a line flip um but the more i look at this game the more i feel like i'm betting a complete team against a team that is josh allen and everyone else who needs to be lifted by josh allen”
BUF 41-40 BAL — Bills beat Ravens 41-40; Baltimore lost outright, busting the -1 spread (ESPN game recap).
“no I'm going Ravens I love the Ravens and it's such a it's still a good number there's still plus one and a half out there but I'll take the hard rock I'll take the minus one”
BUF 41-40 BAL — Bills beat Ravens 41-40; Baltimore lost outright, busting the -1 spread (ESPN game recap).
“the chad loves love bet was detroit plus two and a half and that number is now at hard rock bet down to two”
GB 27-13 DET — Packers beat Lions 27-13; Detroit lost by 14, busting the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Two and a half in our contest plus two. We love it. if this number is at a pick, right, if this moves all the way back to a pick or Detroit flips to being a favorite, like we've seen these lines flipping now. I don't know if we love it as much, right? Because we're kind of playing the value. We're still on Detroit.”
GB 27-13 DET — Packers beat Lions 27-13; Detroit lost by 14, busting the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“round robin underdog parlay here's what i think saints panthers lions raiders cleveland agree or disagree i'll um i'll switch out the raiders for uh the jets all right saints Saints Panthers Jets Lions Cleveland”
ARI 20-13 NO; JAX 26-10 CAR; PIT 34-32 NYJ; GB 27-13 DET; CIN 17-16 CLE — All five Week 1 moneyline legs lost: Cardinals beat Saints 20-13, Jaguars beat Panthers 26-10, Steelers beat Jets 34-32, Packers beat Lions 27-13, Bengals beat Browns 17-16 (ESPN box scores); parlay busts.
“So I'm doing Miami. I think I got one and a half or one. What's Hard Rock say right now about Miami? I'm almost positive they moved to, let me pull it up. They moved to plus one. Yep. All right. Plus one”
IND 33-8 MIA — Colts beat Dolphins 33-8; Miami lost by 25, busting the +1 spread (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Cowboys a plus seven.”
PHI 24-20 DAL — Eagles beat Cowboys 24-20; Dallas lost by 4, covering the +7 spread (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Cowboys on the money line at plus 240.”
PHI 24-20 DAL — Eagles beat Cowboys 24-20; Dallas moneyline at +240 busts (ESPN box score).
“The glaring weakness of this Dallas team was their run defense last year. And yes, they just traded for a D tackle and that's a big deal to help that. But that's the question. But the Eagles have their own questions, Chad. And that's why I think there is value where their number two corner is a big question mark. at someone they just traded for three weeks ago. That's how bad their second-quarter position has been. So, you know, to me, this is the type of game where we're really betting on matchups, and, you know, eight and a half, that's a lot of wiggle room. That's a lot of wiggle room for a backdoor, especially where we know the weakness of this Eagles team is probably going to be that secondary. So, you know, for me, it's a lot through banking on pickings and this new offense here. But, you know, Schottenheimer, he's been taking a lot of shit, but I think that this is actually a nice spot for him. And they're kind of a team that everyone's turned into a joke and they're piling on. And lucky for us is now up to eight and a half. So I don't know if we'll be in our contest, but I do like this. I'm just betting it at eight and a half.”
PHI 24-20 DAL — Eagles beat Cowboys 24-20; Dallas lost by 4, covering the +8.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Browns plus five and a half.”
CIN 17-16 CLE — Bengals beat Browns 17-16; Cleveland lost by 1, covering the +5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Chad loves the Detroit Lions at plus two and a half.”
GB 27-13 DET — Packers beat Lions 27-13; Detroit lost by 14, busting the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“The talent level is still very high for Detroit And you know we see Like Green Bay again they might be better down the road but that Parsons thing I with you that threw a real wrench into the whole thing where it like he getting a shot in his back before this game So I join I'll take that two and a half with the signs.”
GB 27-13 DET — Packers beat Lions 27-13; Detroit lost by 14, busting the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).