Guest · 12-42 on settled picks
| League | futures | other | moneyline | parlay | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 10-28+20% | 2-6-52% | 0-7-100% | 0-1 | 12-42-9% |
“I'm coming back to my boy Prince in here, who is number 10, all the way to the outside.”
My Boy Prince (#10) finished 5th in the Jaipur Stakes (G1) at Saratoga on June 6, 2026; Reef Runner won. (1) Reef Runner 2) Ag Bullet 3) John the Beer Man 4) Twenty Six Black 5) My Boy Prince)
“The number 12 incredible though is my top selection. I make him about seven to two in terms of his fair odds. You can get five to one on the morning line. Thought he ran really well late in the Derby as well. Just was not able to work out the right trip given the traffic. Has paired up buyers of 88 and 89 in his last two starts. Figures to take a step forward for that And also I think he going to get a dream pace set up and potential trip here especially from an outside post being able to drop back and then make one run but getting the jump on Oselli, potentially being a little bit closer to the pace and going a little bit earlier when they ultimately do make their run. Three wins and six lifetime starts has not hit the board otherwise, but I believe the best or second best late pace figure in the field, only three horses clear that 100 time form us late pace number a lot of them clear the 100 number for their early pace this should be a fast race and i like the number two ocelli and the number 12 incredible to come running late but i'm going to pick the number 12 on top and i assume that you are as well where would you uh bet him down to if it was this was a straight bet what do you think his fair odds should be and i assume you would agree that he should be the morning line favorite i very Very much agree. Should be the Morningland favorite. I will bet him down to three to one as a win bet contender for every reason that you just mentioned. And I think it's really funny.”
Napoleon Solo won the 2026 (151st) Preakness Stakes at Laurel Park; #12 Incredible did not win.
“i think you know at six to one you're going to get really good value there so that's the horse that i will be keying around for the Black Eyed Susan on Friday, number three, Holly's Holiday.”
My Miss Mo won the 2026 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes at Laurel Park; Holly's Holiday (#3) did not win.
“11 at 4.53, as you mentioned, this may be my best bet of the day. Uh, number eight, awesome check. Uh, this is a horse who, you know, she's had a hard knocking career, 20 lifetime starts, six wins, four seconds, four thirds. She always is around at the end. And when you look at, you know, what she has done consistently, uh, with her buyer speed figure, she's a horse who, you know, if you look at the consistency of her buyer speed figures versus the rest of this field, you say, how is this horse five to one? And so there's going to be a lot of my weekend that will be in and around this horse. Number eight, awesome check in race 11.”
Warming won the 2026 Gallorette Stakes; favorite Awesome Czech (#8) finished 6th.
“I just think he's more of a B than an A for me. trained by Gustavo Delgado, who won in 2023 with Mage beat Further Adieu in the Tampa Bay Derby, lost the Florida Derby to Commandment, who we'll talk about in a second. So Puma at 10 to 1, slightly more of a B than an A for me. I make him about 9 to 1 in terms of his fair odds. So if it stays at 10 to 1 or higher, I'll be using him. There's just others that I prefer that we're going to discuss in a moment. How do you feel about the number 10? I am, the Puma is my top selection. Love that. Number nine, the Puma's top selection.”
The Puma (#9) was scratched from the 2026 Kentucky Derby (swollen pastern/skin infection); win bets on a scratched horse are refunded.
“In terms of my Xacta, I'm going to take a little bit of a swing here, and I'm just going to play 9 over 6, 7, 8, 12, and 18.”
Exacta keyed #9 The Puma to win, but The Puma was scratched from the Derby, so the wager is refunded.
“Yeah, so my top selection in here is Percy's Bar. She won the grade one. Best name in the race. She's won the grade one Ashland. So a couple of interesting stats here that I dug up, Sean. Since 2000, only five horses have won the Oaks that did not win their prior race. So that's saying 80% of the time in the last 25 years, the horse that won the Oaks won their prior race. And of those, eight came out of the Fairgrounds Oaks and eight came out of the Ashland. So for that reason and others, Percy's Bar is my top choice. The other thing is if you go back and watch that Breeders' Cup juvenile Philly race from Del Mar in October, Percy's bar starts to make this move. And then coming out of the turn, Percy's bar gets absolutely slammed into the rail, like to the point where I was just – I was worried about the horse and Luan Machado, the jockey, falling off. like bounced off the horse to her inside and then hit the rail as well. And when you think about it, like as humans, just think if you're running all of a sudden and you just get hit pretty hard in the ribs, like you're sprinting as fast as you possibly can and you get hit in the ribs, like that's not going to feel good. That's going to knock the wind out of you. And that's essentially what happened to her. And she's still finished with interest. And then she comes back in the Ashland in April and wins pretty convincingly, frankly, and was bet down that day. I believe that day she was either I want to say she was like five to one on the morning line and get that and got that back down to five to two. So for all of those reasons, she's going to be my top selection in here at six to one.”
Percy's Bar did not win the 2026 Kentucky Oaks; Always A Runner won under the lights.
“those three conti crude velocity start contrast rhetorical races eight nine and eleven agree or disagree with and then any other saturday undercard bets that you like well i'm glad that you mentioned race nine. I am against stark contrast in here I have him as a B but I against Actually my best bet of the weekend is in this race and going towards the outside to number 12 Remember Mamba a horse that is a perfect three for three lifetime. Cherie DeVoe is very much on the up and up, especially as a turf trainer. Jose Ortiz is always her top jockey.”
Remember Mamba finished 2nd in the 2026 American Turf; Stark Contrast won by 2 1/4 lengths.
“I'm thinking outright winners here, guys. Let's just go for the jugular. Mike, we'll start with you. You're our guest. Thank you. I am going to number nine, the Puma. He's another horse that is coming out of the Florida Derby. He finished second in that race just by a nose. And interestingly enough, his trainer, Gustavo Delgado, won this race a couple of years back with the horse Mage. Mage was also a horse that came out of the Florida Derby who didn't win the Kentucky Derby. So a very similar pattern. And the Puma 10 to 1 on the morning line, when I last looked, was definitely taking some of the early money for sure. And so it was already bet down below that 10 to 1.”
The Puma was scratched from the 2026 Kentucky Derby the morning of the race due to leg swelling from a skin infection; win bets on a scratched horse are refunded.
“Who are you taking? Yeah. So my top choice, you know, as I, you know, I started doing homework, obviously far before the foot post draw on Saturday, but once the post draw came out, then I really started digging in and I probably did about three hours of homework on just Saturday night alone. And I kept coming back to the Puma. I kind of mentioned this before number nine, the Puma. Morning line, 10 to 1. As you look at live odds right now, it does not look like we're going to get anywhere near 10 to 1 on the Puma. But I think a horse, again, with a win over at the Tampa Bay Derby, ran really well in the Florida Derby just to get nipped at the wire by commandment. I think that this is a horse that can continue to move forward as he has pretty much throughout his young life so far You got Gustavo Delgado who won with Mage back a couple of years ago So he going to be my top choice.”
The Puma (#9) was scratched on the morning of the 2026 Kentucky Derby due to leg swelling from a skin infection, so the win bet refunds.
“talked about before, 20-horse field, you're going to have to figure out how to work out a trip. I think he's going to be able to be a little bit closer than some of these other horses like Renegade in here. I think if he works out a trip, Junior Alvarado obviously won the Derby last year. He knows how to work out a trip. I think that this horse kind of has somewhat of a similar running style to sovereignty. And with Alvarado's experience winning this on a similar type of a horse last year, wouldn't put it past him another horse at decent odds of eight to one that I'm including in all of my tickets.”
Chief Wallaby (#12) finished 4th in the 2026 Kentucky Derby, won by Golden Tempo at 23-1; the win bet loses.
“the other position. So what this will look like is I'm going to do an exact key box. I am going to key. Number nine, the puma. So that means that the puma needs to finish in first or second. And then I'm going to use another four horses that need to finish in the other position from the puma. And those horses are going to be number six, commandment. Number eight, so happy. Number 12 chief wallaby number 15 emerging market and number 18 further ado so that would then be an exact a key box keying the nine with the six the eight the 12 the 15 and the 18”
The exacta was keyed with The Puma (#9) on top, but The Puma was scratched from the 2026 Kentucky Derby before post time, so the exacta refunds.
“So again, my exacta is going to be number seven journalism over the number six Baeza.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“And then my trifecta will be journalism number seven over Baeza number six over the one hill road over and with two sovereignty.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“the favorite number eight excellent truth, Chad Brown trainee. So are you going with chalk here, or are you looking elsewhere? Unfortunately, I'm going chalk, but it's, I said, you know, I'm going to be there Friday. And when I walk in, I'm going straight to the teller and putting a bet in on this horse and don't care what the horse goes off at.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“Sometimes eight to five on journalism is plus 160. If I'm telling you this horse should be even money. If you were betting a team in a baseball game or a hockey game that I am telling you is even money and he's there, that team is plus 160. That's a max bet. Right. Like you're placing a humongous bet at an edge like that. We saying there a possibility he should be four to five or three to five I think even money is a fair price to put him at eight to five would be an absolute gift but even money or better I absolutely taking journalism to win and would put him on top of all of my tickets”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“I'm going two journalism over eight clever again. [30:40] That's going to be my straight exacta.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“And that's the number four, Witte. And not only that, significant jockey upgrade to Flavian Pratt. Now, Witte is going to need a pace to run into. He is absolutely the closer in this race. Flavian always puts his horses in a position to win. And if you're telling me that we're getting 10 to one, absolutely going to use.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“but my best bet of the weekend Sean is going to be in the 11th race of the day and it going to be number seven Reagan's Wit Horses five to two on the morning line maybe not the greatest of prices, two and a half to one. So, you know, you're talking in terms of sports betting, that's plus 250.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“especially with my top pick being Luxor Cafe at 15 to one.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“Oaks, I like the number seven La Cara, 12 to one.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“My favorite undercard bets on Friday in race five, number five, nitrogen eight to five on the morning line in race seven.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“I think it's a free square. You've got the beast herself, the thousand pound gorilla herself in torpedo. Anna, number two”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“The number two, give me another. She's coming off a really nice second place finish, which was her first U.S. start and her first start off the bench. So she's got every right to improve. And at three to one, I think you're getting a pretty square price.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“And then the other undercard bet on Friday that I like in race 10, again, another short price at eight to five, number four AG Bullet.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“Best bet of the weekend is race five on Saturday, the number six, Sacred Wish.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“races nine, 10 and 11 leading into the Derby in race nine in the American turf. I really like number 10 Ironman Cal.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“In race 10, a horse who I've loved for a really long time, Vava, who's coming in here at a really nice price at six to one.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“And then finally, in race 11, which is the turf classic, going to the inside with integration. Integration, again, he's run against some of the top quality turf horses. Last time out, just lost to Carl Spackler. If Carl Spackler was in this field, he'd be the overwhelming favorite. This is a horse who consistently runs in the 90s, if not 100 buyers. He's got the most 100 buyers in this race, having five of them over his lifetime. So again, a horse at a pretty good price at four to one that I really like that I will”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“Interestingly enough, my top choice, in this year's Kentucky Derby is the number seven Luxor Cafe who is 15 to one. So, you know, trying to continue with that trend.”
Sovereignty won; Luxor Cafe did not win — Sovereignty (post 18) won the 2025 (151st) Kentucky Derby; Luxor Cafe (post 7) did not win, so the outright bet lost (Wikipedia 2025 Kentucky Derby).
“So the way that I'm gonna build my Exacta this year is I'm gonna have the number seven Luxor cafe and the number eight journalism in the first place spot. And then in the second place spot, I'm gonna have the number three, who is final gambit, the number four, who is Rodriguez, the seven Luxor Cafe, the eight journalism, the 10 grande, and the 17 sandman.”
1st Sovereignty (18), 2nd Journalism (8) — The 2025 Kentucky Derby finished Sovereignty (18) 1st, Journalism (8) 2nd, Baeza (21) 3rd, Final Gambit (3) 4th. Since neither Luxor Cafe (7) nor Journalism (8) finished 1st, the exacta requiring 7 or 8 on top lost (Wikipedia 2025 Kentucky Derby).
“So my trifecta ticket is gonna look like this. It's gonna look like $7.08 [38:06] in first. In the second position, it will be 3478910171819.”
1st Sovereignty (18), 2nd Journalism (8), 3rd Baeza (21) — The 2025 Kentucky Derby finished Sovereignty (18) 1st, Journalism (8) 2nd, Baeza (21) 3rd. Since the trifecta required 7 or 8 to finish 1st and Sovereignty (18) won, the trifecta lost (Wikipedia 2025 Kentucky Derby).
“I'm going with my top selection to Antiquarian, the number five at 12 to one on the morning line.”
NYRA lists Dornoch as the 2024 Belmont Stakes winner, confirming Antiquarian did not win.
“Beer can man is actually my best bet of the day on Saturday at five to two.”
The published Pimlico chart places Beer Can Man outside first, confirming the stored lost grade.
“My best bet in race seven is going to be number six, Five Towns.”
The published Pimlico chart records Five Towns finishing second, confirming the stored lost grade.
“I'm going to play eight over nine straight. And then for my trifecta, I will play 8 over 9 over 2, 3, 5. So that'll be Tuscan Gold over Imagination over Uncle Heavy, Catching Freedom, and Mystic Dan in the third spot of my trifecta.”
The Preakness official order places Tuscan Gold fourth rather than first, confirming the stored lost grade.
“so for a lot of those reasons I'm ending up on my top selection number eight just a touch at 10 to one”
Churchill Downs records Mystik Dan as the Derby winner, confirming Just a Touch did not win.
“Domestic Product was going to be my top choice in this race. So he's absolutely my top long shot at 30 to one.”
Churchill Downs records Mystik Dan as the Derby winner, confirming Domestic Product did not win.
“i'm gonna give one best bet on the undercard on saturday and we're gonna go to race 10 which is the grade one churchill downs uh and i'm gonna go to number three, Bo Cruz. He's 10 to one on the morning line.”
The official Churchill Downs chart records Bo Cruz as scratched, confirming the stored void grade.
“For the Oaks though, I ended up on number five, Torpedo Anna. She's like, her name suggests, I mean, Torpedo, Torpedo. I mean, she's a freak. There was a point where I am a little a couple of months ago that there were talks of trying to get her into the derby. Trainer Kenny McPeak, who can be somewhat loud and boisterous at times. I mean, he said that someone better bring a beast to counter her because she's coming in the best form of her life. She's been training just lights out. And at five to one, you know, give me that chance. Second off the layoff, another horse who's run at Churchill before. She's got one win and one second from two career starts. Really hasn't done much wrong. Three wins from four career lifetime starts. So Torpedo Anna is the top selection for me.”
Churchill Downs records Thorpedo Anna winning the Kentucky Oaks, confirming the stored won grade.
“My top choice in here is going to be number two, Zandon, 12 to one on the morning [4:45] line.”
White Abarrio won the 2023 Breeders' Cup Classic, so Zandon did not win (ESPN race recap).
“I'm going right back to the old well here, back to up to the mark, number eight, [6:43] five to one morning line.”
Auguste Rodin won the 2023 Breeders' Cup Turf, so Up to the Mark did not win (ESPN race recap).
“I'm going to number five, Adare Manor. Bob Baffert trainee. For those that follow the sport, you know that Baffert always has his horses primed and ready to go. She is, she loves this Santa Anita Dirk. She has six wins in three seconds from nine starts. Means that she's never run worse than second in any of her nine starts. Will she need to move up three? higher speed figure perspective? Yes. But I do think that she has the ability to do that in here. And at four to one, I'm willing to take that chance with her being my top pick.”
Idiomatic won the 2023 Breeders' Cup Distaff, so Adare Manor did not win (ESPN race recap).
“All that being said, here's what my ticket structure is going to look like for the pick three starting in the distaff, which is race seven. As we just talked about, my top choice is number five, Adare Manor. I'm also going to include the Morning Line favorite in four, Idiomatic, And then also who I mentioned earlier, number eight, randomized. When we go to the turf, we discuss two horses to really get some significant value. I am going to single up to the mark in this race. Again, top choice. Love this horse. I've been on him every step of the way, five to one morning line. Horse number eight up to the mark will be the single in race eight. And then in the classic, I'm going to use three horses. The horse that we talked about before, Zandon, number two at 12 to one. Right to his outside, horse number three, White Abarrio at four to one. And then going to go all the way towards the outside in number 12, Arabian Knight. I will be betting this pick three. So it will be three by one by three. So it'll cost you $9 for every dollar. I will most likely be playing $100 pick three. It'll cost me 900 bucks. I would hope that in”
Idiomatic and White Abarrio won their legs, but Auguste Rodin beat Up to the Mark in the Turf, so the pick 3 lost (ESPN race recap).
“[14:31] Three, six, eight for Mike Samich, potentially in multi-race tickets, but certainly King on the six Forte. [14:37] Yeah, Angel of Empire was my initial reaction. [14:40] Archangelo was a horse who at eight to one, I initially looked at and said that price is probably about right. [14:46] If he was 15 to one, I would absolutely be betting him to win that. [14:50] You know, that's probably I expected maybe 15 to one, 12 to one. [14:53] I think David Aragona did a really good job making this morning line Mike Conte who are your top wing contenders and your top overall selection So the top overall selection for just about every reason that Mike Somich just mentioned [15:05] is number three, Archangelo. When you look at this horse overall, we've heard it, right? The”
Arcangelo won the 2023 Belmont Stakes, so the Arcangelo future won as stored (Belmont Stakes results).
“And then I'm just going to play a straight cold exacta where I'm going to play Archangelo over Forte, because I do think for all the reasons that we've mentioned that you can't leave Forte out of it.”
The Belmont exacta was Arcangelo over Forte, so the cold exacta won as stored (Belmont Stakes results).
“[16:53] But for the reasons I mentioned earlier, right, I really do like National Treasure. The other thing [16:58] that we didn't mention, National Treasure puts the blinkers back on. He's had the blinkers on [17:02] in two races, the maiden special weight win, which he went to wire and then in the Breeders' [17:07] Cup Juvenile because they wanted him to be more forwardly placed. Mike mentioned it already, [17:11] right? Going up against Cave Rock in that spot, tough to be able to get the lead. They're clearly [17:16] all systems go right there's one way that they want to win this race and that's to go out you [17:22] know to the lead or be pretty darn close to it and i do think that as you both have mentioned first mission the buzz horse he the wise guy horse in this Preakness Let that horse take the money Let the Chad Brown runner and Blazing Sevens take the money”
National Treasure won the 2023 Preakness, confirming the stored win (Preakness official results).
“I ironically also ended up on the one horse in this race in Sacred Wish. I went back and watched her Gulfstream Park Oaks race a couple of times. And while I don't think that she ran poorly, she finished second in that race behind Affirmative Lady. But you could really see that she was a little green at the top of the stretch. And she started to figure it out, you know, late. And then the gallop out, right? You watch the gallop out, especially when you're watching these replays, especially these younger horses to see how are they finishing up, right? Like what's their mindset when they're finishing up? And I thought that she had a really strong gallop out. So at 10 to 1 on the morning line, she's going to be my top selection.”
Taxed won the 2023 Black-Eyed Susan, so Sacred Wish to win lost as stored (Preakness official recap).
“She broke her maiden last out at Keeneland where she was able to draw in after a couple of defections in that race. She was in the 15 post. Here's what I really liked about her. She sat a perfect trip, which you could say, well, isn't that a reason to go against a horse? She was extremely green in the lane at her head cocked. It looked like she had the runner-up American Retro dead to rights in the lane. And she won, but not super convincingly. That was only after Noon T's second ever career start. And it was her first career start on a fast dirt track. I'm expecting her to continue to move forward. And there are no world beaters in this race, even with the heavy morning line favorite. At eight to one, extreme amounts of value.”
Maple Leaf Mel won the 2023 Miss Preakness, so Afternoon Tea to win lost as stored (race result).
“actually closed into a slow pace. She was clearly moving the best. And the horse that won that day after that afternoon, excuse me, Evie Jets, just walked them around the track. I think there's much more pace signed on in here for White Beam. You get Irad aboard for Chad Brown. We're getting three to one on the morning line. Listen, I said is my best derby card under bet was up to the market four to one and back the Brinks truck up. And thankfully, hopefully everybody else cashed as much as some of us did on that. And I would say the same thing here with White Beam. I love this horse. Honestly, probably my best bet of the entire weekend is White Beam. I think that she is primed, ready to”
Whitebeam won the 2023 Gallorette Stakes, confirming the stored win (race results).
“The race before that race, seven, the eight bells, I landed on number three, Olivia Twist at 12 to one.”
Red Carpet Ready won the 2023 Eight Belles and Olivia Twist finished behind the leaders, so the pick lost as stored (Churchill Downs).
“race nine the american turf i really like number four uh talk of the nation uh the horses 10 to [34:15] one on the morning line. Now, listen, this race from a multi-race sequence, you can make a case [34:21] to hit all in this race. Frankly, it's a really, really challenging race. But listen, talk of the [34:27] nation hasn't done anything wrong, is a horse that's really interesting at a big price, someone [34:33] that I'll be including and probably even be making a win bet on.”
Talk of the Nation was scratched from the 2023 American Turf, confirming the stored void (race report).
“The other best bet that I would say for me is in race 11 number five up to the mark at four to one”
Up to the Mark won the 2023 Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic, confirming the stored win (Churchill Downs).
“[24:48] And I mentioned Nest earlier. I really do like her in here. So for me, the play would be, you know, an exact with Mo Donegal with Nest.”
Official race results confirm the recorded settlement.
“And for better or for worse, Mo Donegal is my top pick in here.”
Churchill Downs' official Derby result names Rich Strike winner, confirming Mo Donegal to win settled lost as recorded.
“I just, I have a hard time there. Uh, listen, I think my, my top long shot at 15 to one or greater is number 19. So, so I mentioned earlier, you know, he's coming out of that same Louisiana Derby race as Epicenter. You know, while I don't think that Epicenter looked amazing in there and clearly Epicenter beat Zozos, I also don't think that Zozos is a horse that wants the lead, but naturally just got the lead in that race.”
Churchill Downs' official Derby result names Rich Strike winner, confirming Zozos to win settled lost as recorded.
“for the Oaks? And do you have a horse that you're targeting if you had to pick one from amongst those top four contenders? I guess you said Secret Oath, but is it a confidence level or are you just going based off a price? Yeah, so it's definitely confidence level with Secret Oath. In terms of the top long shot for me, though, Sean, and to your point with pace, I don't know if this necessarily plays into my favor, but it's the number six. I believe she's pronounced Uguri. She's shown that she can run around a merry-go-round track. She's fast. She's really fast. She may have some of, if not the best early speed in this race. Can she get the distance? I don't know. She held on. She fought back in the last race in the fantasy, the grade three at Oak Lawn. So at 30 to one, all horse that I think you can consider. But I do agree that there's going to be a hot and contested pace in here. Listen, Secret Oath. I think it is a confidence play. It is also something where at six to one, I start to, you know, my mouth starts to drool a little bit. I start to get really excited because to me, there's not enough of a difference between her and Nest or her and Kathleen O at five to two and seven to two, respectively. Six to one, I think is a gift. I'm also a big believer that when a Philly or a mare runs against the boys, next time out, they come and they tend to run a really big race. And listen, there was a reason why, you know, Dwayne Lucas put secret oath in the Arkansas Derby. And there were questions on if she won that race, if he was ever even going to send her into the Derby anyway. So I think this was the plan all along. I really like her in here. Listen, Cyberknife wandered a little bit in the stretch run of that, of that Arkansas Derby secret oath didn't really get a clean run at him late. and you can watch her head is a little cocked. She's moving from in to out trying to find her stride. I think she's going to be able to find her stride in this field with the post, should be able to work out a trip down in the one hole there. And I think that she's coming flying late and I do think that she is going to be the winner. Had a difficult trip in the Arkansas Derby as well.”
Churchill Downs' official Oaks result names Secret Oath winner, confirming the future settled won as recorded.
“because I do have a long shot that I actually like and I think to win. Steve Asmussen, the trainer of the number three epicenter in the Kentucky Derby, he has won the Kentucky Oaks twice, has not won the Derby, and he's more of a sprint trainer in my opinion. Tends to have horses that are better around seven furlongs, maybe six furlongs, but doesn't really have the horses that run as well at the route distances. So yeah, I'm generally against Steve Asmussen horses once we extend out get past seven furlongs, eight furlongs. Once we get past that mile distance, I don't really know if his horses run as well. Okay. My top long shot, the number eight Venti Valentine. I actually think this horse can win. And I know it's a bit of a contrarian take relative to the top four horses in this field. This horse has been training lights out leading up to this race. The one concern for me is the distance. Did tend to fade in the stretch a little bit in her last race, but top Churchill Jones, Jockey and Tyler Gaffleone. Never been off the board in five lifetime starts. Price is going to be right. And she has the tactical speed to, I think, sit in a good spot in this race. I'm actually expecting a pretty honest pace in the Oaks as we're anticipating the Derby, maybe not quite as fast, but I think an honest pace and horses from off the lead are going to end up winning it. And she's impressed in workouts. Like I said, second of 84 horses to work out on April 23rd. Have heard good things about how she's moving around the track, galloping out, ears up, looks happy. So the number eight, Venti Valentine for me, absolutely my top long shot. And I think potentially a sneaky win contender here. That said, amongst the favorites, I do think I prefer the number four nest. I'm with you a little bit on secret oath.”
Churchill Downs' official Oaks result names Secret Oath winner, confirming Venti Valentine settled lost as recorded.
“PPs that I may have missed. Let's talk about race nine, the American turf, 340 PM Eastern time. It's the five, the six and the seven for me, Balenikov six portfolio company and the number seven side dog. I'm staying with three in this race. Any of those you disagree with any that you would add? Don't disagree, not adding anything. Here's the single of the weekend for me. It is number seven side dog. Horse has done nothing wrong, has run three times, won all three times, has continued to step up and face tougher. And frankly, has, in my opinion, looked better in each of these races. Last time out, first off the bench over a good turf course, which probably we'll still have on Saturday. I love side dog in here. It's Irad Ortiz. It's Derby Day. This guy knows how to show up. He puts his horses in the right spot. Watch out at seven to two all day long. This is a win bet. This is a single in any multi-race exotics, doubles, pick threes, pick fours, pick five. I love to hear that. That is my top selection in the race as well. I will probably spread to the three horses in a pick five, but then I'll probably play a pick four where I'm singling side dog as well. So I'm probably going to have multiple tickets and I'll start a pick four with that single race 10, the Churchill down stakes for 31 PM post”
Churchill Downs' official American Turf result confirms Sy Dog did not win, as recorded.
“the morning line. Frankly, I don't think we're going to get five to one. Anything above two to one, five to two, I think is absolutely a win bet. Maker always has his horses ready for these longer route races on the turf. A couple of races back, this horse ran second to another Mike Maker horse at Gulfstream in a mile and a half race tied to the sea. And I think it's Temple's time. He gets Joel aboard. Joel, we mentioned this earlier, he's going to be able to work out a trip. Uh, you know, Joel is winning at 21% over the turf. And so, like I said, anything above two to one, I really, really like this horse. He's getting a ton of class relief. And what I mean by class relief is the horse had been running in graded stakes races, which is the cream of the crop, the best of the best. He's now coming down to allowance optional claiming condition. And, and that's, you know, a decent class relief for, for Temple in this spot. And so I think a class relief with getting Joel aboard is going to really play into Temple's hands here. And so at five to one, holy cow, love this horse. I don't think we're getting five to one.”
The Churchill Downs race report identifies Strong Tide as the April 30 Race 5 winner, so Temple did not win.
“I still like known agenda, but my top pick in the race is number 15, rock your world. Now I love this horse in the Santa Anita Derby and he went off at five to one and I hope that we get five to one again on him. I listen, I don't think that he needs the lead.”
Churchill Downs' 2021 Kentucky Derby report identifies Medina Spirit as the winner; Rock Your World did not win.