Host · 477-526-17 on settled picks
| League | spread | futures | moneyline | parlay | total | prop | other | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 395-356+1% | 7-57-36% | 19-21-4% | 5-42-80% | 24-20+4% | 14-9+15% | 1-0 | 465-505-5% |
| CBB | 2-2 | 0-4 | 6-0+106% | — | — | — | — | 8-6+16% |
| NBA | 1-0 | 0-6-100% | 0-1 | — | — | 1-0 | — | 2-7-20% |
| CFB | 1-4-62% | 1-0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2-4-35% |
“[42:58] This has been the – oh, wait. [42:59] Let's draft. [43:00] Let's draft for a second. [43:01] If we're drafting, I guess it's the Cowboys at plus 210 to win the division? [43:12] Yeah, I would do that division odds.”
“[48:52] So, yeah, if you don't like 13-1, I've seen for Mahomes coming off a major knee injury, 100-1 to beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl. [49:01] I love that bet, Simon. [49:02] It's on my list, and I made it.”
“[36:41] when tyler shuck was playing from behind in a lot of these games uh so i'd love i'd love it for him [36:47] you know i love an underdog story uh all right so we'll invest in the new orleans saints at [36:53] plus 260”
“So my Chad's choice is going to be the New Orleans Saints to make the playoffs at plus 200.”
“we like the value we're seeing in the half point, the hook on Cleveland at plus seven and a half”
“Because the Bears are on the road playing the Carolina Panthers. Bears minus two and a half. So what are we going to do here? Classic rock in a hard place, hard rock, bet of the week. Because, of course, I want to at least be on the side of the Bears as short road favorites. But I know the right side is Carolina. We are going to be fading the Bears all season long.”
“Give me the Baltimore Ravens three-and-a-half-point road favorites against the Indianapolis Colts.”
“So we got Sunday night game. We got Monday night game. Sunday night game. I love, I love the Cowboys. You can tell me it's square. You can tell me it's public, but you know, I'm not on the Giants this year. And I actually feel like the Cowboys and Brian Schottenheimer last year, the two and a half point favorites at the Giants. I thought the Cowboys were pretty well coached last year offensively and their biggest failing was they had Matt Eberflus as the defensive coordinator and then had injuries I do think they will be improved this year on defense and healthier I think there will be a better team than they were last year I'm not a buyer on the Giants tell me it's square I don't care”
“Arizona, four and a half. Under. Agree.”
“Miami, four and a half. Under. Agree.”
“Las Vegas, five and a half. Fernando. But I'm still taking the under.”
“Atlanta, seven and a half. I'm going to go with the, I'm going with the over.”
“Washington, seven and a half. I'd go with the over there. I'd go with the over because I think they're going to get an easier schedule.”
“Indy, eight and a half. [35:42] I'm going under here.”
“Minnesota we talked about Pitt Is it eight and a half Taking the under on Pittsburgh I don know who the quarterback going to be I feel like they revamping their culture They aren't leaning into players they develop.”
“Denver, nine and a half. I'll take the over.”
“the Carolina Panthers over six and a half.”
“but we got to take UConn's money line. I mean, what show would this be if we don't take UConn's”
UConn 71, Illinois 62 — UConn beat Illinois 71-62 in the Final Four semifinal, so the UConn moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“the Tennessee Volunteers plus 155 versus Iowa State we're just going out on a limb that Jefferson isn't going to play given how bad that injury was and he was you know scooting around in a boot the other day so we are going with the Tennessee Volunteers our brass balls bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Bet plus 155 versus Iowa State”
Tennessee 76, Iowa State 62 — Tennessee beat Iowa State 76-62 in the Sweet 16; Tennessee's moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“The games are St. John's Duke, Duke six and a half, Alabama, Michigan, Michigan nine and a half, Michigan State, UConn, UConn two and a half, UConn 25 to one. That's my pick to win it all.”
Michigan 69, UConn 63 — UConn lost the 2026 national championship game to Michigan 69-63 on April 6, 2026 in Indianapolis; the futures bet busts (ESPN box score).
“TCU plus 120 in the first round against Ohio State.”
TCU 66, Ohio State 64 — TCU beat Ohio State 66-64 on Xavier Edmonds' late layup; TCU's moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“Chad's Choice presented by Hard Rock Bet is one of those Seattle alts, Seattle minus six and a half plus 115 at Hard Rock Bet.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Seattle beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX; Seahawks' 16-point margin covers -6.5 (NFL.com).
“New England Patriots first drive punt minus one third teen.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — New England's opening offensive drive stalled after Drake Maye was sacked by Derick Hall for a 10-yard loss, and the Patriots punted on 3rd-and-11 (Wikipedia game summary).
“I bet the Seahawks at minus three and a half the second the game opened.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Seattle beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX; Seahawks' 16-point margin covers -3.5 (NFL.com).
“I bet the Seahawks again at four and a half.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Seattle beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX; Seahawks' 16-point margin covers -4.5 (NFL.com).
“I have bet the Seahawks at minus 25 and a half.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Seattle's 16-point margin (29-13) falls short of the -25.5 spread (NFL.com).
“He's had 29 yards or more, six of the seven. So I'm going to skip your 20 yards that you're going for. And I'm going to play my escalator on yardage here, 30 yards plus 160.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Kenneth Walker III had 2 catches for 26 receiving yards in Super Bowl LX, clearing the 20-yard line (Wikipedia box score). (Kenneth Walker III: 26 receiving yards (2 rec))
“Seattle minus four and a half. First half, New England plus three and a half.”
SEA 9-NE 0 (1H) — New England trailed 0-9 at halftime of Super Bowl LX, a 9-point deficit that busts the +3.5 first-half line (Wikipedia scoring summary).
“Over, under, we're going with the total under 45 and a half.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Super Bowl LX's combined score was 42 (SEA 29, NE 13), under the 45.5 total (NFL.com).
“We're going with Drake Maye completions over 19 and a half.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Drake Maye completed 27 of 43 passes in Super Bowl LX, clearing the 19.5-completion line (Wikipedia box score). (Drake Maye: 27/43 completions)
“these. Over, under, we're going with the total under 45 and a half. We're going with Drake Maye completions over 19 and a half. And we're going with Rhamondre Stevenson, total rush yards, under 53 and a half.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for 23 yards in Super Bowl LX, under the 53.5-yard line (Wikipedia box score). (Rhamondre Stevenson: 23 rushing yards)
“I'm like you. I took a position on the Patriots at 3.5. Seahawks. I mean on the Seahawks at 3.5.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Seattle beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX; Seahawks' 16-point margin covers -3.5 (NFL.com).
“I bet the Seahawks again at four and a half just because the juice was still at minus 110 at one book and it was moving at minus 112, minus 15 at other books.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Seattle beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX; Seahawks' 16-point margin covers -4.5 (NFL.com).
“I gave him one of my favorite bets first quarter under seven and a half.”
SEA 3-NE 0 (1Q) — Super Bowl LX's 1st quarter ended Seahawks 3, Patriots 0 (Jason Myers 33-yard FG only score); combined 3 points is under 7.5 (Wikipedia scoring summary).
“I bet the Seahawks minus three and a half immediately.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Seattle beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX; Seahawks' 16-point margin covers -3.5 (NFL.com).
“I bet Darnold at some plus number that's come down to win MVP.”
Kenneth Walker III (Seahawks RB) was named Super Bowl LX MVP, not Sam Darnold (NFL.com).
“I bet Rashid Shahid to win MVP.”
Kenneth Walker III (Seahawks RB) was named Super Bowl LX MVP, not Rashid Shaheed (NFL.com).
“And then I also bet Kenneth Walker III over 20 and a half receiving yards because we've seen like week after week he's getting more and more involved in their pass game”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Kenneth Walker III had 2 catches for 26 receiving yards in Super Bowl LX, clearing the 20.5 line (Wikipedia box score). (Kenneth Walker III: 26 receiving yards (2 rec))
“We're also on this game over 42 and a half in the contest.”
NE 10, DEN 7 — Patriots beat Broncos 10-7 in the AFC Championship; the combined score of 17 fell well under the 42.5 total, so the over lost (ESPN box score).
“I would say the prop I'd give on this show, I took his over rushing yards. I mean, that's. I took Drake Maye over 40 rushing yards.”
NE 10, DEN 7 — Drake Maye rushed for 65 yards on 10 carries in the AFC Championship, clearing the 40-yard line, so the over won (ESPN box score). (Drake Maye: 65 rushing yards on 10 carries)
“Let me just finish because the parley I did, the SGP I did was Stidham over 260 passing yards, Stidham over 30, it's 32 plus passing attempts, and Drake Maye 40 plus rushing yards.”
NE 10, DEN 7 — In the AFC Championship, Jarrett Stidham finished 17/31 for 133 yards (missing both the 260-yard and 32-attempt legs) while Drake Maye ran for 65 yards (clearing the 40-yard leg); with two of three legs losing, the SGP busts (ESPN box score). (Jarrett Stidham: 17/31, 133 yds; Drake Maye: 65 rushing yards on 10 carries)
“as soon as we got off the show I bet it”
NE 10, DEN 7 — Patriots beat Broncos 10-7 in the AFC Championship on Jan 25, 2026; Denver's 3-point loss was within the +5.5 spread, so the bet won (ESPN box score).
“is allowing. I don't think we're betting money line on the Broncos here. I did take a taste of the Broncos to win the Super Bowl because why not when all of a sudden there's a team in the title game for the weekend and they're 11 to 1, 12 to 1, 13 to 1. That's just a rarity. You might as well take a flyer.”
Denver was eliminated in the AFC Championship, losing 10-7 to New England (ESPN); the Patriots then lost Super Bowl LX 29-13 to Seattle on Feb 8, 2026 (ESPN), so the Broncos futures bet to win the Super Bowl lost outright.
“I bet the Hoosiers at minus 7.5 while I'm here in Florida”
IU 27, MIA 21 — Indiana beat Miami 27-21 in the CFP National Championship on Jan 19, 2026; the Hoosiers' 6-point margin fell short of the -7.5 spread, so the bet lost (ESPN box score).
“We talked about Houston, New England, the total, the side, but just to be clear we are on houston new england and the under if you can get the 41 get it it's also at 40 and a half below the key number i took it at 40 and a half this was our brass balls i think we're gonna have a hard time leaving this one out of the contest too yeah i mean live um”
16-28 — Patriots beat Texans 28-16, combined 44 points, over the 40.5 total (ESPN box score).
“the Rams and Chicago the first half under we liked it at 25 and a half on Tuesday It a 23 and a half We still recommending you take the under at 23 and a half Let get a quick word from our”
Rams and Bears were tied 10-10 at halftime (combined 20 points), under the first-half 23.5 total (ESPN box score). (1H: Rams 10, Bears 10 (20 combined))
“I'm with you on that. I just think it's going to be a really close, low-scoring game. And I wish I'd given out, honestly, the 7.5, as Simon says. But just as happy to give out the 7. I think that's still a great number on 49ers. Well, look, the 7.5, I played it as well with you. But a big number like this also, it's harder to cover when the total is as low as it is. The bookmakers are kind of telling us something here by setting the total where it is and having the number where it is and that it's moved in the direction of the Niners. You got it like 24-17, right? That's sort of what it could feel like, maybe 24-21, which is why it was so important to get the half point. But that's kind of how this game shapes up because you've got to believe that Kyle Shanahan will manufacture some points.”
6-41 — Seahawks beat 49ers 41-6; San Francisco lost by 35, failing to cover +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“our Brass Balls Bet of the Week presented by Hard Rock Bet We going under 41 You know what it takes It takes brass balls”
16-28 — Patriots beat Texans 28-16, combined 44 points, over the 41 total (ESPN box score).
“I'll go Patriots minus three.”
28-16 — Patriots beat Texans 28-16; New England's 12-point margin covered -3 (ESPN box score).
“Sharp versus square. I think we both got killed last week. So do you want to go first? Yeah, I'll lean into it. I'll go Patriots minus three. All right. Then you know what I'll do? Bears first half under. Okay. What number are you going to take? Oh, just give me the 24 at least. It's up to Matt Mitchell. He can give you the 24 minus something. Well, Matt Mitchell is just going to come on the air and call us Jagoff. So just give me the 24. Hey, Jagoffs, you can have the 24.”
Rams and Bears were tied 10-10 at halftime (combined 20 points), under the first-half 24 total (ESPN box score). (1H: Rams 10, Bears 10 (20 combined))
“is going to be the under 45 and a half Are you sure you want to do this Are you willing to make a choice What choice”
6-41 — Seahawks beat 49ers 41-6, combined 47 points, over the 45.5 total (ESPN box score).
“Well, I'm taking the Rams at minus ten and a half.”
34-31 — Rams beat Panthers 34-31 (margin +3), failing to cover -10.5 (ESPN box score).
“is something that we have agreed on. We both played the under 44 and a half.”
31-27 — Bears beat Packers 31-27, combined 58 points, over the 44.5 total (ESPN box score).
“Los Angeles Chargers holding strong as three-and-a-half-point underdogs at the New England Patriots. There was a tweet this morning Matt Mitchell sent along to us that Bailey Zappi has more wins against teams that are over 500 in his career than Drake made us. This was our brass balls, and there's still 60% of the money or the bats coming in on the Patriots, and this number has not budged from three and a half. No one likes fading an MVP candidate. When he's playing in his first playoff game, Every trend tells you this is a bad spot to back the favorite, especially when he's playing a quarterback who has been covering as a dog consistently. So I still love the Chargers here.”
3-16 — Patriots beat Chargers 16-3; Los Angeles lost by 13, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Simon says this week was the Pittsburgh Steelers plus 3.5 hosting the Houston Texans. This line is down to 3. Could get down to 2.5. It's juiced in a direction where it could get down to 2.5. We both loved it at 3.5. You talked about still liking it at 3. I don't really have any reason to back away from this game. I think the Steelers win this game outright.”
6-30 — Texans beat Steelers 30-6; Pittsburgh lost by 24, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“So I'll take Bears, Packers under 45 and a half.”
CHI 31, GB 27 — Bears beat Packers 31-27, a combined 58 points; the under 45.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“But we're not going to fade the trend on this last game on Sunday. Los Angeles Chargers at the New England Patriots. They are three and a half point underdogs. Simon, this is going to be our Brass Balls Bet of the Week. Presented by Hard Rock Bet. You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. Total is 46 and a half.”
NE 16, LAC 3 — Patriots beat Chargers 16-3; Chargers lost by 13, the +3.5 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Chad's Choice presented by Hard Rock Bet. [13:40] Los Angeles Rams minus 10.”
LAR 34, CAR 31 — Rams beat Panthers 34-31; Rams' +3 margin falls short of the -10 line, selection busts (ESPN box score).
“Last game on Sunday, the Los Angeles Chargers plus three and a half visiting the New England Patriots. I will refer to your comment a few weeks ago when we were talking about the Patriots. I can't wait to fade the Patriots in the playoffs. We know the trends you've mentioned at the top about first-year quarterbacks in the playoffs against veteran quarterbacks. We bet the Chargers on Sunday night at three and a half. It's one of the few numbers that kind of hasn't moved. No juice movement, no number movement. Total in this game is 46. We're on the Chargers, even though their offensive line is decimated and we know that the Patriots are getting totally”
NE 16, LAC 3 — Patriots beat Chargers 16-3; Chargers lost by 13, the +3.5 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm on the Bengals at the seven, I think.”
CLE 20, CIN 18 — Browns beat Bengals 20-18; Bengals' -2 margin falls short of the -7 line, selection busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm also big on the Bengals and the Rams money line today.”
LAR 37, ARI 20 — Rams beat Cardinals 37-20 outright; Rams moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“with the Carolina Panthers, plus two and a half.”
TB 16, CAR 14 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 16-14; Carolina lost by only 2, covering the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“you're talking about this seven yards seven yards I just want to point out I did bet Rico Dowdle 25 plus yards rushing and parlay it with Rico Doudle, his anytime touchdown. Because the anytime touchdown odds are about plus 117. If you parlay it with his 25 plus yards, you're getting it for plus 130.”
Rico Dowdle rushed 7 times for 10 yards with 0 touchdowns in Carolina's 16-14 loss to Tampa Bay, missing both the 25+ rushing yards leg and the anytime-touchdown leg (ESPN box score). (Rico Dowdle: 7 att, 10 rush yds, 0 TD)
“Simon says, was the Pittsburgh Steelers plus three and a half, hosting the Baltimore Ravens in the last regular season game of the year on Sunday night football. We're both all in on the Pittsburgh Steelers.”
PIT 26, BAL 24 — Steelers beat Ravens 26-24; Pittsburgh won outright, covering the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“We know Panthers are going to be the public side, but what are we supposed to do here? People know this show. They know us. This is thank God we can avoid at least some. contest and it's a Saturday game. But I love it. I love it. I bet it. We think we both bet the three when it's on Sunday night, but the three and a half and I bet the money line.”
TB 16, CAR 14 — Panthers lost to the Buccaneers 16-14; Carolina moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“We bet the Bengals minus seven.”
CIN 18, CLE 20 — Browns beat Bengals 20-18; Cincinnati lost outright as a -7 favorite, missing the spread (ESPN box score).
“Minnesota. They're visiting. Green Bay is visiting Minnesota. It opened at five and a half. We said, grab it. We expected this line to go up. That's what happened. It's moved up to six and a half. Really, this is about, we still don't know who's going to be playing quarterback. we expect it to be Malik Willis for the Packers. Matt LaFleur said Malik Willis could have come back into the game on Sunday night. If the record, if the score was a little bit closer, he's also said they've learned their lesson from last season when they didn't have much at stake in the final game of the year. They lost Christian Watson for the year up for most of this year to a bad injury. And they actually Jordan Lovager, at his hand so we know they're probably going to arrest a lot of starters in this game no matter who's playing quarterback and we also know that this number has moved to six and a half even though you know a preponderance of the tickets are coming in on green bay so it's professionals that are moving the money um we're sticking with minnesota and the brian flores defense here”
MIN 16, GB 3 — Vikings beat Packers 16-3; Minnesota won by 13, covering the -6.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“everyone got hurt. I think we got a real game with Detroit at Chicago and Chicago is a two and a half point favorite. They both, both coaches have said they're playing to win. Uh, the bears need it for potential seating. Like we just discussed the lions need it for pride pun intended. And Dan Campbell would sooner quit before he wasn't going to play a game at full tilt. So we got a real handicap, my friend, the line has moved in the bears direction one and a half to two and a half. but only a slight majority of the bets coming in for the Bears. So this feels more like a wise guy move than a public move. The Bears may not have Roma Dunze, probably not going to have Luther Burden. What do you think? I know what I think and I don't like to say it because I'm proud of my team, but I don't think they're the team this week. I don't think we see the Bears win another game this season oh my god I know it just it feels that way that felt like a turning point yeah I'm not gonna lie where it's like oh I disagree on that yeah you think they win this game they win a playoff game I'm not talking about this game I think the Lions are the right side in this game but I came away from that game against the Niners so encouraged like the way they played Caleb was still missing his easy passes but when like he can make some plays and i feel like they should come out of that game thinking they went toe to toe with one of the best teams in the conference and they were one bad sort of alignment away from having a better chance to win that game i'm not discouraged as a fan coming out of that game at all all right i'm just telling you from a professional standpoint that when i look at this i'm like oh my god they might not win another game the rest of the year because it's a hard matchup and they have the playoffs and it just feels like it's a losable game in the round one matchup your your defense is horrible that been your issue all year you lived on the turnovers and um lucky for you Goff seems like he got the turnover bug This dude cannot stop turning the ball over So I'm simply just playing the number here. It's three now with multiple books. So this number is getting hit by professionals. Now they've bumped it up to three. How do I not take that side? And I'm going to give out these Campbell stats, but I keep saying I hate that I'm doing it because they might be Ben Johnson stats. But it is interesting. Campbell with the Lions, 4-0 straight up, 4-0 against the spread in week 18. In week 17 and 18 in his career, he is 8-2 against the spread. That's including not covering last week. Jared Goff, man Campbell, as a dog, we know the deal, 29-14 against the spread. It's like you just got to bet it, and when they end up closing as a dog, they're 23-13. So I know it's all these numbers. I keep saying they might mean nothing, but I just have to keep trusting that they'll get this offensive going. And against a bad Bears, I think the Bears can win, Chad, no doubt. I think they are the better team right now. They're clearly the more healthier team, even with all their injuries. That offensive line has got a lot of shoes. I just can the Bears take advantage. Do you guys have pass rushers that can take advantage of that bad offensive line? And unless Goff doesn't turn the ball over, I just feel like this is going to be a back and forth type of game. So if it was still a pick or minus one on the Bears, I think I could be on the Bears side here. But now we're hitting the three. I mean, come on. You have to take the lines at that number. So it's it's tough for me. I love this Bears team, but I just I see it. I hate it when I see these things happen, but I just I see them kind of faltering here in this exact spot. And they need to win it on my opinion. They need to win this game and get Green Bay at home. They do not want Stafford coming in with this Rams team. Oh, yeah, I agree. I'd much rather have the Packers than the Rams. And we're going to talk about the Rams in a second. I'm just, I'm not worried that anything, I thought you were referring to the Bears' confidence cratering. That, to me, isn't the issue. I think they're going to be highly confident. I think they're going to look at that game and be like, guys, we're so ready to be elite. We can play with any team in the NFL offensively. We never have to worry about being out of the game. We never have to worry, no matter what the score is, that we're not going to be able to come back because this offense is so good. So good That it We take the Lions Hey listen man to say that I proud of you would be the massive understatement Composure communication”
CHI 16, DET 19 — Lions beat Bears 19-16; Detroit won outright by 3, covering the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Arizona to the Los Angeles Rams. Los Angeles Rams are seven-point favorites right now at Hard Rock Bet. This is going to be Chad's Choice presented by Hard Rock Bet. Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice? What choice? we can't run from where we are sharp dudes can just see it you know what i mean when asked if the rams would play their starters in week 18 sean mcveigh said oh they're playing we need to play better so to me this is a normal handicap not a week 18 handicap and let me give you some stats about the cardinals they remember in the beginning of the year where like the Carls are playing close, they're playing hard. They started September, October with losses of 1.3 points, 1.4 points, and four points. Their November, December losses have been 22 points, 19 points, 3-3, 32, 20, 7, and 23. Three of those blowouts, losses came in the division i'm taking the rams in a get right spot against a team that has no answers defensively and very few answers offensively as we've seen again and again and again no matter who they're playing”
LAR 37, ARI 20 — Rams beat Cardinals 37-20; Los Angeles won by 17, covering the -7 spread (ESPN box score).
“We currently have Tennessee plus two and a half in the contest. [6:54] I still love it. [6:55] This is the side of the wise guys, Tennessee.”
NO 34, TEN 26 — Saints beat Titans 34-26; Tennessee lost by 8, well outside the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“We had been betting Cleveland long before the expectation that they wouldn't be playing starters because we're going back to our roots. We're betting Cleveland at home with a great defense that we hope returns to being a great defense. And we're fading the Steelers in a road favorite anti-Mike Tomlin rah-rah spot. I will say it makes me a little nervous. I think the line has moved from three to three and a half because the public has been coming in on the Steelers.”
CLE 13, PIT 6 — Browns beat Steelers 13-6; Cleveland won outright, covering the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“The Buffalo Bills currently two-point favorites at Hard Rock. It was down to one on Thursday. A lot of that, I think, is because we were unsure of Josh Allen's status with his injured foot. He came out and said he's good to go. He's playing. The Buffalo Bills, Simon, are going to be our rock in a hard place, hard rock, bet of the week.”
PHI 13, BUF 12 — Eagles beat Bills 13-12; Buffalo lost outright as a -2 favorite, missing the spread (ESPN box score).
“for the last game we've leaned into before we get to some that we're still considering [14:20] the chicago bears plus three and a half at the san francisco 49ers the sunday night”
SF 42, CHI 38 — 49ers beat Bears 42-38; Chicago lost by 4, missing the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Number one, Carolina opened as a three-and-a-half-point road underdog against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I bet the three-and-a-half.”
TB 16, CAR 14 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 16-14; Carolina lost by only 2, covering the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I also bet the money line on the Carolina Panthers.”
TB 16, CAR 14 — Panthers lost to the Buccaneers 16-14; Carolina moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“The other game, Pittsburgh hosting the Baltimore Ravens. They opened as three point underdogs. I also bet the Pittsburgh Steelers in this spot.”
PIT 26, BAL 24 — Steelers beat Ravens 26-24; Pittsburgh won outright, covering the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Texans at two and a half.”
HOU 20, LAC 16 — Texans beat Chargers 20-16 on Dec 27, 2025; Houston won outright by 4, covering +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“The Texans at the Chargers, I'm so bummed we can't put this into our Sharper Square contest with all of our listeners because we both love the Texans here. I bet the Texans at two and a half. I bet them on the money line. D'Amico Ryan, 16% ROI as an outright underdog as a head coach. But look, this is all about betting against the Chargers offensive line. I just will not be fooled by them beating up on the Cowboys and looking great against a team. that did what it did against Josh Johnson in the second half on Christmas. I won't be fooled by them beating up on the Eagles and getting that win when Jalen Hurts had so many turnovers in that game. I'm just not buying it.”
HOU 20, LAC 16 — Texans beat Chargers 20-16 on Dec 27, 2025; Houston won outright, so the Texans moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“day goals at halion assist.com slash con new orleans at tennessee this line is now down to two and a half at hard rock it opened at three and a half we've been betting it or at least i have um i also bet tennessee on the money line so look you've said it the wise guys are on it um uh i i don't love that there is a majority of the tickets coming in on the titans it makes me feel like we might be backing a little bit of a public dog but i just start to feel better after you said the wise guys have been pounding this as well yeah and that's fair it could it could be a little bit”
NO 34, TEN 26 — Saints beat Titans 34-26 on Dec 28, 2025; Tennessee lost outright by 8, not covering +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“um i also bet tennessee on the money line so look you've said it the wise guys are on it”
NO 34, TEN 26 — Saints beat Titans 34-26 on Dec 28, 2025; Tennessee lost outright, so the Titans moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“indianapolis colts plus six and a half yeah and that's that's why i like the the denver's part”
JAX 23, IND 17 — Jaguars beat Colts 23-17 on Dec 28, 2025; Indianapolis lost by 6, covering +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“I bet him at one.”
PHI 13, BUF 12 — Eagles beat Bills 13-12 on Dec 28, 2025; Buffalo lost outright by 1, not covering -1 (ESPN box score).
“Unfortunately, I bet into the Bills at two and a half. I bet him at one. I bet him on the money line. So I'm overexposed on the Bills”
PHI 13, BUF 12 — Eagles beat Bills 13-12 on Dec 28, 2025; Buffalo lost outright, so the Bills moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Pittsburgh at Cleveland. Simon Cleveland. Browns are a three point underdog at home. Like we said, Plan is moved from four and a half to four to three and a half to three. Cleveland Browns are going to be our Brass Balls Bet of the Week. Presented by Hard Rock Bet. You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. Who knows what's going to happen in this game? If the Ravens lose on Saturday night, will Mike Tomlin all of a sudden start resting starters? We know DK Metcalf is not going to be playing. I think we're leaning into the division rivalry. We're leaning into Myles Garrett going for the sack record. We're leaning into fading Mike Tomlin as a favorite on the road. It's an anti-ra-ra spot. All of those things, as you pointed out, this is where I want to say, a bet on a team with nothing to play for versus a bet on a team with something to play for in the last two weeks of the season, 61% against the spread. you said it more eloquently but now that i remember it and it's in my notes i wanted to share it yeah and it like chad just said it's a very unique spot here where we could be getting a great number because pittsburgh could simply be sitting all their guys right this is a really fun game that you know the ravens i think they're up to minus or plus four and a half now yeah the books are kind of telling you they don't think they're going to win there so um the only thing keeping this number up is it's tons of public money coming in on the Steelers team because they're just seeing the minus three right with a Pittsburgh team that's been beating pretty good competition these last couple weeks playing a Browns team that we all know they're just not very good especially offensively and they've had now they lost Junkins to an injury the running back like it's just it's a nightmare for the Browns but we've been talking all season this Browns team you know they we're a little disappointed then because their defense felt like it wasn't showing up these last couple weeks yeah you know even that bills game you can't really say they dominated or showed up in that game totally uh it was just buffalo really did take the gas pedal off that second half but you know it was another game was close right and you just go through other games you know the tennessee game they lost at home i think they lost by two and that that bills game even though they should have probably lost by 10 or 11 they only lost by three so we've just seen this browns team even as bad as they've been down the stretcher they still have been playing really tough and close games at home. And Chad just nailed it. It's like, it's, this is going to be the Miles Garrett party. And I love the irony of it If it is going to be Mason Rudolph being the quarterback that he gets the sack record against all that just coming together and um yeah it it really interesting we talk all the time about how um I gave out that stat five the last six times Cleveland's beat Pittsburgh outright at home and you know that's with you know Deshaun Watson's backups and just disaster the season these Browns have had these last couple years they've just continually beaten Pittsburgh in the spot at home So never was going to avoid it. We talked about it in the contest. If you got to get the three and a half, it was a great number to lock in because that number just felt like it was going to keep falling. And now that we know that whole Pittsburgh drama with the Ravens, if the Ravens lose Pittsburgh, they've locked up the title of the North. They don't need to play anybody. I just don't see Tomlin risking all these veteran guys they have playing in this game. So this was a game you don't see Rogers and, you know, as much as we like to hate on Rogers, he's been really impressive. Unreal. Yeah. So it's going to be pretty interesting to see how different this team is in a game that just means nothing to them against a Browns team that I think this is going to mean something to them. I think they're going to be playing hard, especially Shadar Sanders, who's still playing for a job here. So I think you're in sync here, Chad. Even if this is two and a half in our contest, I'd still take it, as long as you're getting a good plus number on the Browns. Agree. Simon, you and I, mind mouth. I hope I don't give you COVID. I hate this for being one of my bigger bets this week. It's like I might really load up on Shador and the Browns, but it's a great number. We totally are.”
CLE 13, PIT 6 — Browns beat Steelers 13-6 on Dec 28, 2025; Cleveland won outright by 7, covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Texans at two and a half.”
HOU 20, LAC 16 — Texans beat Chargers 20-16 on Dec 27, 2025; Houston won outright by 4, covering +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Texans at two and a half. I took a little piece of the money line. Money line, money line, Noman. That's what they call me.”
HOU 20, LAC 16 — Texans beat Chargers 20-16 on Dec 27, 2025; Houston won outright, so the Texans moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Your New Orleans Saints are visiting the Tennessee Titans The number was three I bet the Titans at plus three It is now two and a half at hard rock bet”
NO 34, TEN 26 — Saints beat Titans 34-26 on Dec 28, 2025; Tennessee lost outright by 8, not covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“day goals at halionassist.com slash con philadelphia at buffalo buffalo it's moving in the in the eagles direction it was two and a half i like the bills here i don't think the eagles can stop their run game. I think the Bills have more to play for. I think there's still injury issues for the Eagles who have clinched. They can't get the number one seed. Like, I want to play the Bills. I'm surprised the number is moving against them right now. Me too. Honestly, just because I see no reason why the Eagles would even try in this game. They just feel like they're locked in. They're a team that's had injuries all season. Why not rest a lot of key guys? It's just, you can use these next two weeks to rest guys, but But, you know, the pros maybe just view what I think most of us know. I know the Bills have looked better but honestly when you break this down the Eagles are much better than this Bills team Much better Look we were worried about Mariota as a mobile QB against the Eagles defense and it was playing out exactly that way. Yeah. What about with Josh Allen? Yeah, honestly, it's shocking. Josh Allen, you know, he dominates everyone. I think the Eagles are the only team in his career he's never beaten. He's 0-2, straight up 0-2 against the spread in his career. But I'm like you. It's like the Eagles, what are they playing for? On the flip side, the Bills, they want to roll and destroy this team. Yeah. And they're the best running team of football. They should be able to run it all over this Eagles team that has been suspect against the run all season. And, you know, I just, I don't really, I'm like you, I do not get this one. The pros, they're coming in heavy on this Eagles side. Like this number was up to three in a bunch of books. Now it's, I'm seeing a bunch of one and a halves pop up. So I'm like, you know, maybe there's an injury. Maybe there's an injury we're missing, brother, but I'm with you. It's like one and a half. You can get that right on the bills. I'm all over that number. I just think the bills could easily blow up the Seagulls team here. Yeah. I bet the two and a half. Cause yesterday it looked like it was going to three. I wanted to grab it.”
PHI 13, BUF 12 — Eagles beat Bills 13-12 on Dec 28, 2025; Buffalo lost outright by 1, not covering -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“So then our final five is going to be Tampa Bay at Carolina. We're going with Carolina plus three and a half.”
CAR 23, TB 20 — Panthers beat Buccaneers 23-20 on Dec 21, 2025; Carolina won outright, easily covering +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Buffalo at Cleveland. We're going with Buffalo minus 10 and a half.”
BUF 23, CLE 20 — Bills beat Browns 23-20 on Dec 21, 2025; Buffalo won by only 3, not covering -10.5 (ESPN box score).
“Jacksonville at Denver. We're going with Jacksonville three and a half.”
JAX 34, DEN 20 — Jaguars beat Broncos 34-20 on Dec 21, 2025; Jacksonville won outright by 14, covering +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Pittsburgh at Detroit. We're going with Detroit. It's seven and a half now, but we got it at six and a half in the contest.”
PIT 29, DET 24 — Steelers beat Lions 29-24 on Dec 21, 2025; Detroit lost outright, not covering -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“New England plus three and a half in the contest at Baltimore. That is it.”
NE 28, BAL 24 — Patriots beat Ravens 28-24 on Dec 21, 2025; New England won outright by 4, covering +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to be watching it. At least I am because I did bet the Raiders 14 and a half at Houston.”
HOU 23, LV 21 — Texans beat Raiders 23-21 on Dec 21, 2025; Las Vegas lost by just 2, covering +14.5 (ESPN box score).
“show and then actually bet on. Washington at Philadelphia. We talked about this on Tuesday, Saturday night, six and a half point underdogs. The Washington commanders are going to be our Brass Balls Bet of the Week presented by Hard Rock Bet. You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. I think that matters The commanders have just been better with Marcus Mariota which we been saying for the past few weeks Jalen Carter will still be out I think that impacts how the Eagles can defend against a mobile quarterback And talk about wanting to be in a spot where you fading a team We want to fade the team that just blew somebody out And all of a sudden, people think the Eagles are fixed when we're not quite convinced the Eagles are fixed. So at six and a half, this just feels a little bit inflated. As you noted in sharp calls, wise guys are on this one as well.”
PHI 29, WSH 18 — Eagles beat the Commanders 29-18; Commanders lost by 11, busting the +6.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Bills minus 10.”
BUF 23, CLE 20 — Bills beat the Browns 23-20; Bills won by only 3, busting the -10 spread (ESPN box score).
“Go Raiders plus 14 and a half.”
HOU 23, LV 21 — Texans beat the Raiders 23-21; Raiders covered +14.5, losing by only 2 (ESPN box score).
“I just want you to be on it It 6 right now in our contest I bet the 6 on the Lions team number should be four four and a half That why my model thinks as well And I think both of us are overreacting that this Lions team they're not as bad as I'm perceiving them to be. They actually are a really good, high-powered offense. I think they're number one and number two in total yards this season, even with Dan Campbell taking over offensively. It's been the defense that's held them back all season. So to me, matchup-wise, as good as Rodgers looked in that last game, I think there are ways for this team to attack them, especially that defensive front to give the Rogers some problems where Miami, they have no real pass rush. And we talk Miami is bad as Miami is defensively coming into the year. That was like the worst secondary in all football. And as much injuries as this Detroit team has had, they still, they play hard for Campbell. They hit hard. They know that they're just going to run tons of zones here. And that's what you expect Rogers to be able to pick apart, but we've seen it. Rogers these last few weeks, he's been pushing the ball downfield. He's actually struggled against certain types of zones this season. And so to me, this feels like it's going to be a game. There's going to be a lot of points. And I don't see the Steelers keeping up with the chat. So I just wanted to bring it up just in case I don't blindside you come Sunday for my love with the team. It's on the list. It's on the list.”
PIT 29, DET 24 — Steelers beat the Lions 29-24; Lions lost outright, busting the -6 spread (ESPN box score).
“Moneyline underdog parlay. Tennessee. Yeah, throw it in. Arizona. Arizona. Okay, yeah, I'll do it. New York. Giants. New England. New England. And got to put my Jags in there. The Jags.”
Parlay busts: Titans ML won (TEN 26, KC 9); Cardinals ML lost (ATL 26, ARI 19); Giants ML lost (MIN 16, NYG 13); Patriots ML won (NE 28, BAL 24); Jaguars ML won (JAX 34, DEN 20) — with two legs losing, the parlay fails (ESPN box scores).
“games um first of all Sunday night and we went to Baltimore Baltimore is a three point favorite I saying it now Chad Choice presented by Hard Rock Bet It going to be the New England Patriots Are you sure you want to do this Are you willing to make a choice My choice We can't run from where we are. Sharp dudes can just see it. You know what I mean? I'm jumping on the New England Patriots bounce back bandwagon.”
NE 28, BAL 24 — Patriots beat the Ravens 28-24; Patriots covered +3 by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“We got Kansas City minus four and a half.”
LAC 16, KC 13 — Chargers beat the Chiefs 16-13; Chiefs lost outright, busting the -4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“One of the many reasons why we have continued to bet on the [7:06] Buffalo Bills at minus one, minus one and a half,”
BUF 35, NE 31 — Bills beat the Patriots 35-31; Bills covered -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“We got Green Bay minus two and a half.”
DEN 34, GB 26 — Broncos beat the Packers 34-26; Packers lost outright, busting the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“All right, let's talk about some underdogs. First one up, Minnesota, five and a half point underdog against Dallas.”
MIN 34, DAL 26 — Vikings beat the Cowboys 34-26; Vikings covered +5.5 by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“We first started talking about this one, I think on Sunday it was at three and a half. By Tuesday it was at four. It's now at five. A lot of other books are five and a half. by the middle of yesterday, I completely came around to your position. I just decided, A, everything you were saying was right. There is going to be extreme weather. The Chargers have so many offensive line issues. So much bad luck is befalling the Chiefs, whether it's bobbled passes, bad calls, all the stuff that went their way for 17 straight close games so i'm with you brother i'm on the chiefs i bet him i bet him i get the line i got was four and a half i did not get the three and a half or the four i got the four and a half because i waited too long but i still went in on it i'm with you i'm with you and i love it let's put it in the contest yeah in our normal circumstances”
LAC 16, KC 13 — LA Chargers beat Kansas City 16-13; Chiefs margin -3 vs line -4.5, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Like, it's minus six, which I'm still betting the six. But if this was five and a half, Chad, I think we probably could have agreed on this being the pick for the day. But it's not. Yeah, yeah. It's not going to be brass balls. I think we're going to have to do something even brassier and ballsier for brass balls. But we both love the Rams here. We both bet into the Rams. Five and a half. I hope everyone was listening on Tuesday. Got the five and a half. If you can get the six, great. Get the six. You didn't get the best of it. But, you know, it's still a good number.”
LAR 41, DET 34 — LA Rams beat Detroit 41-34; Rams margin +7 vs line -5.5, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“carolina at the new orleans saints new orleans saints plus two and a half this was simon says there were some threes available right after we got off the air on tuesday for much of tuesday there were some threes there it's back down to two and a half i don't i don't think it's gonna last um so i mean i don't think the threes will i think it could get back to three but i don't think the threes are gonna last uh we hate betting against the panthers we hate it especially when they got a chance to take control of the nfc south the darlings the team that we love for years but we're both on the saints here yeah i think i think threes will pop just because the books they're getting so much panthers money i think they're going to need some saints money”
NO 20, CAR 17 — New Orleans beat Carolina 20-17; Saints margin +3 vs line +2.5, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“Green Bay at Denver. This was Chad's choice. The Green Bay Packers minus two. I think that the Packers, you and I had been struggling with the Packers all year because all of the advanced metrics keep saying how great they are. But they hadn't seemed dominant on the field, right? They were 9-3-1 heading into that Bears game. And what I saw in that Bears game was just a complete team. Now, the Bears were able to run the ball in the second half, but how they were able to cover overall and the way Jordan Love was able to respond to pressure, the fact they've gotten so many of their receivers back. I love this roster. I love the speed in their defense. I love the way Jordan Love throws against man coverage, which is what the Broncos are going to play. They're going to go against single high coverage, which is what Jordan Love loves to throw against. Everything about this matchup to me, I feel like I'm getting about a point of value. I think that the Packers should be three-point favorites because I think the ultimate decision here, coaching is even, defense probably even. I think the difference is the quarterback, and that's worth a lot to me. Give me the Green Bay Packers. Two points. Favorites. Yeah, we both love the Packers.”
DEN 34, GB 26 — Denver beat Green Bay 34-26; Packers margin -8 vs line -2, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“The Minnesota Vikings visiting the Dallas Cowboys. Are you with me? Are you with me on the Minnesota Vikings? Love the Vikings. Minnesota Vikings. Should we make it our Brass Balls presented by Hard Rock Bet? Let's do it. Definitely a ballsy bet. All right. Minnesota Vikings plus six at Hard Rock Bet against the Dallas Cowboys. That is our Brass Balls bet of the week presented by Hard Rock Bet. You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. Forget about J.J. McCarthy for a second. The Vikings defense has been playing lights out the past few weeks, just getting better and better and better. And to me what they can do to potentially neutralize Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys offense versus what the Cowboys can do to defend against anything that the Vikings are going to do is so much greater that I have to believe in what I seen when Kevin O can just tell his quarterback and put him in a halfway decent position against a defense that is as bad as the one they just played in Washington. So I'm buying the Minnesota Vikings.”
MIN 34, DAL 26 — Minnesota beat Dallas 34-26; Vikings margin +8 vs line +6, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“I get where you're coming from. Let me be the bigger scumbag here. Give me the Raiders plus four 90. I knew you were going to say that. I got to do it again. This, I think they're going to They should blow out this Raiders team, but we've seen in football when teams collapse under their own weight, this tends to happen. So just at that number, I have to bet it. That's too big for the- You really just want the conversation about Jalen Hurst to continue? Not at all. money off the suffering that's the key here uh favorite by the way the only of the big numbers”
PHI 31, LV 0 — Philadelphia shut out Las Vegas 31-0; Raiders moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Green Bay at Denver. Denver is a two point home underdog. It's been bouncing one and a half and two and a half. Every time it gets to two and a half, somebody buys the Broncos. And every time it gets to one and a half, somebody's buying the Packers. And that's what we're seeing in the splits. I'm going to make this one Chad's choice and I'm taking the Green Bay Packers are you sure you want to do this?”
DEN 34, GB 26 — Denver beat Green Bay 34-26; Packers margin -8 vs line -2, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Jacksonville on the money line. I didn't even bother with the spread. There might be massive”
JAX 36, IND 19 — Jacksonville Jaguars beat Indianapolis 36-19; moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“We're at Jacksonville plus two and a half.”
JAX 36, IND 19 — Jacksonville won outright 36-19; Jaguars +2.5 covers easily (ESPN box score).
“really has a difference of half a point between these two guys so it's if we believe in a chad we're simply betting a good number which hard rock is right now minus three and a half because this number is going to four and a half forward a lot of books and we're banking on this defense in this weather at home it just feels like a unique spot so i'm still in on it i don't know if you're if you want to join me like i've joked about it i i am probably over 100 on this tennessee team these last two years but i just feel like this is a unique spot back on this browns team we have no rhythm when it comes to the tennessee titans none zero we we we cannot catch the falling knife on this team but but we have a lot of rhythm with the browns yeah and so i've i'm still on it i've dead into it i'm not walking away from it let's just commit to it I love what I didn't have three and a half. What did I have a number of moves? Yeah, let's own it.”
TEN 31, CLE 29 — Tennessee beat Cleveland 31-29; Browns margin -2 vs line -3.5, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Miami at the New York Jets. This was Chad's choice to two and a half in the contest. Not the best number because it's been three for much of the week. I still love it. I bet the Jets, I bet the Jets at three. I bet the Jets at three on Wednesday. I bet the Jets at three I think again on Thursday I bet the Jets money line I all in on the Jets here And maybe I making a mistake Maybe I sort of over enthusiastic But I just don see”
MIA 34, NYJ 10 — Miami beat the Jets 34-10; Jets margin -24 vs line +3, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“I still love it. I bet the Jets, I bet the Jets at three. I bet the Jets at three on Wednesday. I bet the Jets at three I think again on Thursday I bet the Jets money line I all in on the Jets here And maybe I making a mistake Maybe I sort of over enthusiastic But I just don see how a Jets team that was a two and a half point underdog on the road against the Dolphins in week”
MIA 34, NYJ 10 — Jets lost 10-34 to Miami; moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“The line is currently eight and a half. The Saints are eight and a half point underdogs. Simon this is going to be our rock and a hard place hard rock bet of the week I want to rock You talked about the Saints a bunch on Thursday It took me a minute to come around I am on the Saints now. I bet the Saints at plus eight and a half.”
NO 24, TB 20 — New Orleans beat Tampa Bay 24-20; Saints margin +4 vs line +8.5, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“I grabbed Houston at four and a half.”
HOU 20, KC 10 — Houston beat Kansas City 20-10; Texans margin +10 vs line +4.5, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“We loved the Rams at seven and a half, and we bet it at seven and a half. It's at nine and a half because there's a bunch of injuries for the Cardinals. why not the Rams? Nine and a half right now. Terrible number. But I think if they win, there's going to be a blowout. All right. I can be talked into it. I'm heavily invested in the Rams. I'll do that.”
LAR 45, ARI 17 — LA Rams beat Arizona 45-17; Rams margin +28 vs line -9.5, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“Miami at the New York Jets. The line at Hard Rock is two and a half. Everywhere else, it's three. So I would recommend getting the three. I made this chat's choice when it was the Jets two and a half on Tuesday. And that seemed to be the only 24 hour window where this wasn't three because it was at three sunday into monday it's been three since wednesday morning i bet it at three i bet it again at three um so i'm the dolphins are getting all the bets on this one they're the”
MIA 34, NYJ 10 — Dolphins beat Jets 34-10 in Week 14; New York lost by 24, margin -24 vs the +3 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“So I really do like this Browns game. It's another game just like the Jets one where I know it's probably an overreaction on my part to it, but I just think the Lions move too much. I don't think the Jets should be plus three. I don't think the Browns here should be minus three and a half. It just feels like too much of an overreaction by a lot of these professionals. So maybe you'll help us talk us out. I've become a Sunday chat, but as you're sitting right now, the Browns are quickly becoming one of my bigger bets. I've taken a pretty large position on the minus three and a half. I just think it's a unique spot with this Browns defense, Jim Schwartz at home against a rookie on the road in the elements. I got to take the Browns here.”
TEN 31, CLE 29 — Titans beat Browns 31-29 in Week 14; Cleveland lost outright by 2, margin -2 vs the -3.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“We've made the very hard decision to back the Baltimore Ravens at minus five and a half.”
PIT 27, BAL 22 — Steelers beat Ravens 27-22 in Week 14; Baltimore lost outright by 5, margin -5 vs the -5.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“we are on the same side, the Los Angeles Rams, minus 7.5 versus the Arizona Cardinals. We know we're going against the wise guys here. we're basically back in we're going against the big home dog that has lost seven games by four points or less because they've also lost multiple games in the division by three touchdowns and the Rams are coming off their worst game of the year where they were on the road as 10.5 point favorites and lost outright I'm okay back in the Rams here I'm okay back in Sean McVay here I like this defense to give pressure against Jacoby Brissett. I'm perfectly fine with our position.”
ARI 17, LAR 45 — Rams beat Cardinals 45-17 in Week 14; Los Angeles won by 28, margin +28 vs the -7.5 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“report is come today all right underdog money line parlay my dog likes your dog your dog likes my dog who do we want to do this week i would say jaguars yeah jets jets and then let's do uh for the third one let's do washington”
JAX 36-19 (win); MIA 34-10 (loss for NYJ); MIN 31-0 (loss for WSH) — 3-team underdog ML parlay busts: Jaguars beat Colts 36-19 (won), Dolphins beat Jets 34-10 (Jets lost), Vikings beat Commanders 31-0 (Commanders lost) (ESPN box scores); two legs lost so the parlay fails.
“when Simon, we've got Miami visiting the New York Jets and the New York Jets are two and a half point underdogs. And we could go with Tyrod Taylor. In fact, Chad's choice presented by Hard Rock Bet is going to be the New York J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets at home is two and a half point underdogs against the Miami Dolphins. Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice. My choice. We can't run from where we are. Sharp dudes can just see it. You know what I mean? I did bet the Jets a plus three. We talked about it on Sunday. So the line was moving literally during our show. We said live, if you want to get the Jets, get them right now at plus three. I'll still bet them at two and a half just because I think they're the right side here.”
MIA 34, NYJ 10 — Dolphins beat Jets 34-10 in Week 14; New York lost by 24, margin -24 vs the +2.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“I did take a piece of the Texans at plus three just because why not?”
HOU 20, IND 16 — Texans beat Colts 20-16; Houston won outright, margin +4 vs the +3 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“I wonder if this lag has something to do with it San Francisco at Cleveland Cleveland plus five and a half This was Chad choice It moved as low as four and a half before bouncing back up Dude I not going to lie to you. I got Cleveland at six and a half. I liked him at six. I made him Chad's choice at five and a half.”
SF 26, CLE 8 — 49ers beat Browns 26-8; Cleveland lost by 18, margin -18 vs the +5.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“I have bet into the Browns. I have bet into the Browns money line.”
SF 26, CLE 8 — 49ers beat Browns 26-8; Cleveland lost outright, moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“All week we said, this is getting a three, this is getting a three, this is getting a three. It finally popped a three yesterday on Saturday. I've betted a two and a half. I've betted a three. I've bet the Jets money line, maybe I'm too over ambitious in my beliefs because I'm not backing Kirk Cousins on the road after a so-so performance without Drake London again and the Jets defense is effective at stopping the run and that's going to be the Falcon strength here so give me the Jets plus three rah rah J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets, Jets.”
NYJ 27, ATL 24 — Jets beat Falcons 27-24; New York won outright, margin +3 vs the +3 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“I've betted a two and a half. I've betted a three. I've bet the Jets money line”
NYJ 27, ATL 24 — Jets beat Falcons 27-24; New York won outright, moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“it's going to be our rock in a hard place hard rock bet of the week the new york football giants they are seven point underdogs at hard rock at the new england patriots on monday night they are seven and a half in a lot of places i believe simon and i have both bet into the seven and a half i'm speaking for you uh but we did like it a lot on tuesday i did bet it at seven and a half.”
NE 33, NYG 15 — Patriots beat Giants 33-15 on Monday Night Football; New York lost by 18, margin -18 vs the +7.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“Well speaking of dogs I made a list of the Moneyline Underdog Parlay and I was finding more games where I feel I can see victory for the dogs than I can for the favorites On my list I have Pittsburgh I have Cleveland I have the jets I have Houston. And then I put Tennessee, uh, just because I have such a bias against the Jags. No, anyone, anyone you think I should exclude anyone we should add. No. And like, I've already, I bet that I, um, got lucky. I made the bet. Uh, We gave out on Cincy. I had them thrown in with a couple of their teams, just long shot odds, a couple of 19-to-1s, 20-to-1 bets. I have a couple of Cincy, a couple of Cleveland money lines together. Yeah, it's just I think we're both on the same page. We think it's going to be a little bit of a wonky week. We just see there being some upsets this week. And obviously, if we had known there was going to be three dogs winning outright on Thanksgiving, would have been a happy amen. And I had one contest I was left, and everyone knows it. It's a really big survivor pool. You have to make a Thanksgiving pick. And just like every other idiot in the world, we've been saving the Ravens for that game. And it looks like the smartest guys where the people don't pay attention, just pick every weekend. The people that just had to roll with the dogs on the Thanksgiving game, Cincy, Cowboys, and yeah, I got knocked out on the Ravens. So people can tell I'm just – I just think this is a dogs week. I'm really heavy into the dogs this week. So I love this round, Robin.”
PIT 7-26 (loss); CLE 8-26 (loss); NYJ 27-24 (win); HOU 20-16 (win); TEN 3-25 (loss) — Underdog ML round robin busts: Steelers lost to Bills 7-26, Browns lost to 49ers 8-26, Jets beat Falcons 27-24, Texans beat Colts 20-16, Titans lost to Jaguars 3-25 (ESPN box scores); three legs lost so the parlay fails.
“i think you commanders tonight up to six and a half i like your early read i'll grab that plus one and a half now”
MIN 31, WSH 0 — Vikings shut out Commanders 31-0 in Week 14; Washington lost by 31, margin -31 vs the +1.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“Betting the Cincinnati Bengals as seven-point underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving Day when Joe Burrow is coming back to play. So let's do it. We haven't gotten official word that Joe Burrow is back, but all indications are that Joe Burrow is coming back. And this line has moved from seven and a half down to seven. Plus, Jamar Chase will be back. Plus, Chase Brown, who, Simon, kudos to you, all flowers. Early in the year, you talked about how Chase Brown was a guy that you thought had a chance to really have an impact and potentially be a team. Huge rushing number guy this year. And the last five games, he's proving it. Like the only time he's gone fewer than 70 yards in the past five games was it in that shootout with the Bears that the Bengals lost 47-42. To me, seven is the number you give this game when Lamar is at full strength and this Ravens defense is at peak performance. But if you even look at the game last week against the Jets, they won 23 10 they covered some of the numbers but that was not a dominant performance they still look like they are struggling week after week after week give me the bangles plus seven”
32-14 — Bengals beat Ravens 32-14 on Thanksgiving; Cincinnati won by 18, covering the +7 line (ESPN box score).
“Guess what, Simon? It is time for Chad's Choice, presented by Hard Rock Bet. Are you sure you want to do this? Are you willing to make a choice? My choice. We can't run from who we are. Sharp dudes can just see it. You know what I mean? I'm going with the Cleveland Browns plus five and a half at home against the San Francisco 49ers. I feel like I dodged a bullet last night. uh i nearly pulled the trigger on the panthers at plus seven and a half like you and i we discussed it all week and like there was something we just couldn't quite get there on the panthers at least for purposes of the show and i was uh so tempted it was like i was still debating it up until about 6 30 uh and then i spoke to a buddy of mine mike kerns actually who you know was at the chernan group recruited me to help uh help them all launch action and massive niners fan and he walked me back on the panthers didn't go exactly as sort of the blowout that i think we had convinced ourselves it would be san francisco played fine brock purdy you know three picks the panthers are really the reason why they didn't cover that game the missed field goals the picks from Bryce Young. But we now got the San Francisco 49ers on the road. This number is moved from six and a half. So I'm betting into a number that's moved. But at the end of the day, it's not about Dylan Gabriel being quarterbacked. It's not about Shredor Sanders being quarterback. It's about the Browns at home as a dog with this defense that is going to be much more effective than anything they saw against the Panthers. We both like this on Sunday night when the Browns were six and a half. That's when I bet it, but I'm still betting into it at five and a half.”
26-8 — 49ers beat Browns 26-8; Cleveland lost outright by 18, busting the +5.5 line (ESPN box score).
“You know where there aren't fears, Simon? The Atlanta Falcons at the New York Jets. The New York Jets are currently two and a half point underdogs. And the New York Jets will be our brass balls. Bed of the week. You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. We agreed on this one from the get go.”
24-27 — Jets beat Falcons 27-24; New York won outright by 3, covering the +2.5 line (ESPN box score).
“the new york giants resurgent competitive for two weeks in a row with jamis winston new york giants took the packers down to the wire took the lions into overtime lost both games uh dramatically Now they're visiting the New England Patriots. They are seven and a half point underdogs, Monday night football. We don't know at this point if it's going to be Jameis or Jackson Dart. My feeling is it's going to be Jackson Dart. He did practice last week. He traveled with the team. That indicates to me that he's probably going to be ready to go. I think the real issue here, Simon, is who's playing on the left side of the offensive line for the New England Patriots? because they had players just being carted off on Sunday in that game that they barely covered against the Bengals. So I know where I'm going to lean in this game. Do you want to say it? Do you want me to say it? Do we want to be discussing together? Do you want to say it on the count of three? One, two, three. Giants? Giants, Giants, Giants, Giants.”
15-33 — Patriots beat Giants 33-15 on Monday Night Football; New York lost outright by 18, busting the +7.5 line (ESPN box score).
“New England at Cincinnati. It's been a tricky one. The Bengals are seven, seven and a half point underdogs. Depending on where you look, it's everywhere. If you can get the seven and a half, you should go get it. The Cincinnati Bengals with Joe Flacco starting are going to be our rock and hard plays, hard rock, bet of the week.”
26-20 — Patriots beat Bengals 26-20; Cincinnati lost by only 6, covering the +7.5 line (ESPN box score).
“because we're not. Another one, I have felt strongly all week, Chad's choice. Arizona is a two and a half point underdog at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. I said on Tuesday, it was Chad's choice at two and a half, but I told everybody, wait for it to get to three. It got to three and immediately got that back down to two and a half. Maybe I'm being irrational. I love the Cardinals here.”
27-24 — Jaguars beat Cardinals 27-24 in overtime, a 3-point margin that exceeds the +2.5 line; Arizona busts (ESPN box score).
“we're good on the Cowboys at plus three.”
21-24 — Cowboys beat Eagles 24-21; Dallas won outright by 3, covering the +3 line (ESPN box score).
“Today, one of the games you didn't mention, which we both liked a lot, Seattle, which is now a 13 and a half point favorite at Tennessee. we talked about it on Tuesday we bet it on Tuesday we bet it at 12 and a half on Tuesday it's obviously moved up to me we can say that the perceived value is lost in this game”
30-24 — Seahawks beat Titans 30-24, a 6-point margin that falls short of the -12.5 line; Seattle busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm down to Cincy and Vegas. Do Vegas. You love it. You've been tempted all week. I do love Vegas. I'll take minus 3.5. I tried to get you off of it, but you love it. I love the Raiders. I love it.”
24-10 — Browns beat Raiders 24-10; Las Vegas lost outright by 14, busting the -3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“But the truth is I'm just fading the Jags here, and I'm betting. That's much more what I'm doing than betting on the cards. I know you love it when I geek out on the numbers. so i'm sure you're familiar with pythagorean wins which essentially like the number of wins a team is supposed to have based on all of their underlying advanced metrics that shows the true performance it kind of takes a lot of the luck out of the game it just shows you all right if everything was equal this is how this team would be this is what their this team's record would be. And of course, when I look at this, the Jags should have about one fewer win and the Cardinals should have one more win. So instead of being a team that is like, what are the cards? Three and seven, they should probably be closer to four and six or five and five. And the Jags, instead of being six and four, should probably be closer to five and five. That's not how this game is lined. This game is lined is that the Jags are a much, much better team. I don't see it that way. Give me the cards. Plus three. Yeah. And I think it did move a little bit because of the injuries”
27-24 — Jaguars beat Cardinals 27-24 in overtime, a 3-point margin that exactly matches the +3 line; Arizona pushes (ESPN box score).
“It's going to be the New Orleans Saints, minus one and a half.”
24-10 — Falcons beat Saints 24-10; New Orleans lost outright by 14, busting the -1.5 line (ESPN box score).
“they're plus 140 yeah arizona um all right uh the favorites we're definitely going to go with the raiders oh yeah uh we're gonna go with the saints what about kansas city yeah we can do it kansas city you know i think i think them being five and six is very real raiders saints kansas city I gonna do Seattle Yeah do some adjusted lines do Seattle minus 5 Okay Seattle minus 5 Let do one more How can we not take Packers? Yeah, take the Packers. I get it. It's a divisional game.”
LV 10-24 CLE; NO 10-24 ATL; IND 20-23 KC; TEN 24-30 SEA; MIN 6-23 GB — Parlay legs: Browns beat Raiders 24-10 (Raiders ML lost); Falcons beat Saints 24-10 (Saints ML lost); Chiefs beat Colts 23-20 OT (Chiefs ML won); Seahawks beat Titans 30-24, covering the -5 adjusted line (won); Packers beat Vikings 23-6 (Packers ML won). Two legs lost, so the parlay busts (ESPN box scores).
“I know I bet Seattle on Sunday at 12 and a half. I'm assuming you did as well.”
SEA 30, TEN 24 — Seahawks beat Titans 30-24; Seattle's 6-point win fell short of the -12.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“It feels like it's the right spot to take the Steelers, but it's pain in me. I just – I don't want to go – there's something magical about this Bears team. They're just so well coached. I think they'll be able to run the ball against the Steelers team, but we've seen it. Tomlin flies away, and I just think this is just playing the number. It's too big a plus three. Yeah, I agree as much as it pains me to bet against the Bears in this spot. All of it just feels – we saw that – we've seen this before, right? We've seen this with the Vikings a couple years ago. We saw this with the Giants and Brian Dayballs first year. We saw it with the Chiefs last year. There are teams that get on a roll and they go eight, nine, ten games where they win by one score. And you keep expecting it every week. Like how do you figure out when the regression is going to come? That's what makes it so difficult because at some point you either got to get off the train and try to time that perfectly. It's like timing the market. How do you time the freaking market? You know? Who's everybody? Your team. Like they're graded as the one of the worst teams in NFL history in the last like 25 years to be seven and three just like the all the underlying numbers and data Totally That why I love football it like it don matter you gotta line up and play the game they keep finding a way so i i get what people are saying but at the end of the day it doesn matter meaning it doesn't matter we're taking the steelers still taking the steelers but i'm just”
CHI 31, PIT 28 — Bears beat Steelers 31-28; Pittsburgh's exact 3-point loss matched the +3 spread, a push (ESPN box score).
“I'm on the Raiders at minus three.”
CLE 24, LV 10 — Browns beat Raiders 24-10; Las Vegas' 14-point loss busted the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Well, listen, if we're not going to do Gino, then let's do something else that's really gross. And this one is going to be Chad's Choice presented by Hard Rock Bad. I am going with the Arizona Cardinals plus two and a half against the Jacksonville Jaguars.”
JAX 27, ARI 24 — Jaguars beat Cardinals 27-24 in overtime; Arizona's 3-point loss busted the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to have to be on the Panthers at plus seven.”
SF 20, CAR 9 — 49ers beat Panthers 20-9; Carolina's 11-point loss busted the +7 spread (ESPN box score).
“Cincinnati at Pittsburgh. Five at Hard Rock Bet. Five and a half everywhere else. I bet into it at five and a half. I'm a little surprised it hasn't moved to five everywhere else because it looks like the money is coming in on Cincinnati I still really like it at five and a half are you with me”
PIT 34, CIN 12 — Steelers beat Bengals 34-12; Cincinnati's 22-point loss busted the +5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“i bet houston minus six and a half”
HOU 16, TEN 13 — Texans beat Titans 16-13; Houston's 3-point margin fell short of the -6.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'll add the Los Angeles Rams. The Los Angeles Rams are three-point favorites. This was our Brass Balls Bet of the Week presented by Hard Rock Bet. We're both on the Rams here.”
LAR 21, SEA 19 — Rams beat Seahawks 21-19; Los Angeles' 2-point margin fell short of the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Baltimore at Cleveland. This was Chad's choice at eight and a half.”
BAL 23, CLE 16 — Ravens beat Browns 23-16; Cleveland's 7-point loss stayed within the +8.5 spread, a cover (ESPN box score).
“Detroit at Philadelphia. Philadelphia is a two and a half point favorite. This, Simon, is our Rockin' a Hard Place Bet of the Week presented by Hard Rock Bet. Look, you just talked about Detroit is becoming the public dog for the week. It's probably what's been tamping down this number and keeping it at two and a half at Hard Rock. It's starting to move to three in some other places. That tells me that the professionals are finally coming in full force on Philadelphia here. Lots of reasons to like the Eagles. Lots of reasons to like the Lions. I'm going to go with what we've been talking about all week. I know people are saying, there are stories every day that there are problems with this Eagles offense. To me, they are different than the problems last year. The problems last year seemed like Jalen Hurts was lacking confidence. Jalen Hurst does not seem to be lacking confidence this year. Jalen Hurst seems to be playing a very conservative type of football where he is doing what he needs to do to get his team in a position to win. That puts them in a position to win a close game against a very good team by a field goal. The flip side, the Lions have so many injuries, again, on defense that it's going to be hard for them to execute as they normally would against still a very, very good Eagles offense. So we're on the Eagles.”
PHI 16, DET 9 — Eagles beat Lions 16-9; Philadelphia's 7-point win covered the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So we're on the Eagles 2.5 tonight.”
PHI 16, DET 9 — Eagles beat Lions 16-9; Philadelphia's 7-point win covered the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Let's first talk about Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, which no one has mentioned. The line been generally holding at five and a half bumped down to five at hard rock bet But I seeing other places where the juice is indicating it going to go up to six I honestly surprised and a little bit disappointed that it hasn't been more aggressively moving to five like we're seeing at Hard Rock. Obviously, I bet into it at five and a half. To me, it entirely comes down to the offensive weapons for the Bengals. And I know everyone's going to say everything they want to”
PIT 34, CIN 12 — Steelers beat Bengals 34-12; Cincinnati's 22-point loss busted the +5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I did bet the Texans at minus six and a half”
HOU 16, TEN 13 — Texans beat Titans 16-13; Houston's 3-point margin fell short of the -6.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“are the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams. Simon, we're going to have a deep conversation about this one because the Los Angeles Rams are going to be our Brass Balls Bet of the Week presented by Hard Rock Bet. You know what it takes? It takes brass balls. I know we had a long conversation on Tuesday about Seattle and I think we both have sort of come to the conclusion that we like the Rams here for me it was about some of the research I did on the matchups and the schemes despite Seattle's defensive prowess and how the Rams can take advantage of that you got a lot of blowback from the wise guys and this one might be, I'm not going to say bullying you, but effectively debating you, positioning you, changing your mind, moving you off your opinion. Tell me what you heard, why it changed for you. I will share with you some of what I've researched and why it changed for me. But we both came to that independently. Yeah, I just honestly, my model likes Seattle and I like Seattle just the way they've been playing. I thought this would be a great match for them. But like you said, The more you dive into it, there's some weaknesses with Seattle defense that we know the Rams will exploit. And it's a unique game and a matchup. And I'm happy we have some strong opinions on it because it is probably the best game of the week. And early in the week, I was like, am I really going to bet heavy on one side or the other in this game because it's such two really good teams? I mean, I think Evan had this amazing stat. It's the first time in NFL history we've had two teams match up week 10 or later. that are both 77% against the spread and straight up matched up this late. So it's really unique where it's like two teams, betters have loved profit off heavily this season. Got to pick a spot now. I thought most books would be split. It it honestly really heavy the money towards this Ram side And we seen some three and a half pop up So if you do like the Rams I would grab it now I do think it could get the three and a half by game time just because so much professional money is coming to the Rams here And it's really about McVay, right? In his career against Seattle, he's just done so well. And we always saw these divisional teams, these matchups. Certain teams just know how to play against certain defenses. and it doesn't matter that they had a regime change for Seattle. He still owned them since that change. So Justin McVay in his career, 12-5 against the spread against Seattle. And since 2019, he's 11-2 against the spread. So it's just interesting McVay has just dominated this franchise for so long now. And with Stafford, I was like, okay, is there a bump with the Stafford? Because this is by far the best quarterback he's had in that run. he's 5-0 straight up 4-1 against the spread against seattle covering by almost seven points per game so staffers just dominated this matchup and you know i i agree with you i i probably overrated this seattle defense a little too much because they really have not faced a juggernaut path of quarterbacks they've had an easy kind of go here so i think this will be a true test for them we're getting a great number with a ramp team that's just playing insanely well one last amazing stat i saw evan post again i love stupid stats like this because it's just when you really look into it it's actually pretty smart since 2024 when the ramps have seven games and they commit three penalties or less in those seven games the following game they're 7-0 against the spread in that matchup they had zero penalties last week why is that smart though what is that telling you what's the correlation there that they're just playing sound football which is like you see all these other teams are super sloppy right now like that we joke that raiders game the raiders had nine penalties you don't really win games like that especially when you only score seven points the flip side the rams are putting up 35 points and against a divisional opponent having zero penalties on the road that's just really impressive to me it just shows when mcveigh you know he gets these guys playing at a high level and they're in sync like this they just keep it rolling so i just love that stack because it just shows this team is just totally in tune right now with everything and you know like we've been saying the Rams fluky fluky loss against that Eagles team and you know they could easily be the number one seed right now NFC they've been playing like the best for sure so a couple other things to keep in mind you just mentioned the money coming in on the Rams, the public is all over Seattle. Like this is a pros-joes game. It is a – they are the public dog here. That's number one. Number two, you mentioned some softness in the Seahawks defense. Where they are worst, and they're not bad at much, but where they are worst is defending against tight ends. And all of a sudden, the Los Angeles Rams have become the highest tight end usage team in the NFL. NFL they're going they're going four deep sometimes on tight ends so we've been seeing that and it's it's super exciting to watch but it's also devastating if you've bet against the Rams I don't want to be on the other side of the Rams and 13 personnel and Matthew Stafford against a team that has not been playing very well against tight ends and in in a game where something small like that is what the difference is going to be right it's going to be you know a tie game wait and the Rams have the ball with 90 seconds left from their own 20-yard line and Matthew Stafford finds Parkinson down the seam for 35 yards and gets him into field goal range. That could easily happen and that weakness could be the difference in the game. And I don't mind fading the public in this spot. I agree. And Devontae Adams has not practiced this week, but he got interviewed and he basically said, I'm going to be out there. I'm going to be playing. I'm not going to miss this game. So don't be worried if Devontae doesn't practice all week. I think he'll still play. I believe he has a bad hip, but I believe he'll still play. Los Angeles Rams, brass balls, bet of the week, presented by Hard Rock Bet. Speaking of receivers who are injured and their status being questionable or debated, the San Francisco 49ers are at Arizona. Arizona is a three-point dog. We liked Arizona on Tuesday. It was at two and a half. We wanted it to get to three. It did get to three. I don't know about you. I bet it at three. Marvin Harrison Jr. is out with an appendectomy. I don't think that matters to me. To me, this is about Jacoby Brissett and Trey McBride, and we're just talking about tight ends and a Niners defense that cannot rush the passer right now and has at the center of its defense a new signal caller replacing Fred Warner who played well but it still different when you playing against an all tight end caliber tight end like Trey McBride Yeah, I'm with you on the Cardinals. It's another game, though, just like a Jags where I'm just betting this number. I don't really feel that great about it. So you might have more opinions on this one than me. I simply just took this number. Obviously, Harris News sucks. As much as you want to downplay it, he is their number one. He's a big, big target who, with Bursette, seemed like he's been playing pretty well. So not ideal. But like you said, we're just playing the number here in the matchup. And I just can't have this 49ers team catching more than three points against anybody, let alone a divisional foe that can move the ball offensively. Like you said, train wreck start to that game against Seattle. They fought, played well throughout the game, and moved the ball pretty well. So it's a good number, but, man, is this a gross game. Do you want to hear my appendectomy story? Not really. The story is about how I was trying to close the NFL preview at ESPN the magazine, and I wasn't feeling well. Oh, no. And for two days, I stayed in the office, barely leaving, because my boss at the time, it was the first NFL preview we were ever closing. and my boss was like, she was like, you don't look good but we really need you. You're running this issue. We need you to be here to close it. I am like under my desk. I had to be removed and taken by ambulance to the hospital for an emergency appendectomy which I stayed in the hospital for 10 days after. Did you not know this? Yeah, because I was closing the NFL preview for ESPN the Magazine in 1998 But here's the kicker. Here's the kicker. After the surgery, we had like our reviews and my boss at the time, who I ended up quitting ESPN the magazine because I just could not stand her. She was one of the worst people I've ever worked with. Still to this day, horrible boss, stole every idea, would not give me any help with assignments, did not try to grow me in any particular way. in my review that year she gave me the equivalent of a check minus in Disney grading rules for attendance essentially at work And I like what do you mean She goes, well, you know, you were gone for two weeks in June. I'm like, that was my honeymoon? I just started four weeks earlier and everyone knew I was getting married. She's like, and then there was that time like in September where you were gone for like two and a half weeks. I'm like when an ambulance came and took me out because I had an emergency appendectomy the point of the story Simon I played through it did you I don't know, it seems like the appendix won I closed the issue it put you down for 10 days I closed the issue, the point was I closed the issue I had a buddy with basically the same thing, but unlike you he was it was college he was boozing drinking he goes i think something's wrong is the same thing where it's like right down like above the crotch like below the stomach kind of yeah yeah yeah yeah so basically same thing as you were you probably had like a sharp pain in that area yeah and he can't he basically couldn't stand up right apart he says he can't stand up he's in so much pain and i go dude you should go to a hospital if you're in that much pain he goes but i feel fine sitting here it's just when i stand up i can't stand up and i basically a buddy put him on his shoulder and carried him down the street to a local doctor that took him to the hospital. It doesn't sound like he was so committed to his job. He stayed at the office for two days in agony to close the NFL preview issue. We haven't even really talked about the time that I wrote a cover story for ESPN the magazine after I had broken my back in a cab accident. Next time. We'll get to that one next time. Baltimore at Cleveland. This one was Chad's choice when it was eight and a half. The number at Hard Rock is now down to seven and a half. You mentioned there's some lingering news or news about a knee issue with Lamar Jackson, but we were all over this before. I'm glad to hear that the Wise Guys are into it too. Give me some feedback on what they were telling you. I have some thoughts on a very specific point that you and I discussed about this game the other day, but tell me what the Wise Guys were telling you and how you're feeling about this 48 hours later. Well, like I said, it feels like, not that we lucked into it, but it's just a spot we both loved. I feel like most of them knew something was up with Lamar, that he was a little banged up from that game and they were taking a position on it because their view of it if you already getting a bang up with Lamar and he he does play you handicapping him because he not gonna have the same rushing ability against one of the best defensive lines in all football so um the early line move has a shock me i'm shocked though it has stuck at seven and a half i thought this would be just like that houston tennessee line where the books would hedge a little bit right move it down to seven maybe six and a half just in case Lamar is out in this game so they must must be pretty positive confident that Lamar does play which I don't know how you can trust the Ravens right now like I I just anything Harbaugh says to me is just I don't believe any of it now like I'll believe it come Friday practice if he's with the first team and you know that's reported by reporters not the team itself so yeah it's um I'm so glad we got the early line on Cleveland but it's it's a tough game to try to handicap now because we really don't know if it's obviously if it's not Lamar I mean we're elated I would tell people to bet it now if you really think that but I do think Lamar plays I just he's such a competitor he's missed so much time I just unless he's really really banged up and he can't move I can't see him missing this one but for us I wanted to play like a banged up Lamar I mean it's it's a great great matchup for Myles Garrett and the boys and um just dive into this game more we talked a little bit about it it's I'm not putting so much faith in Dylan Gabriel I still think he's got issues I do think this Cleveland team better run the ball against this Ravens team I don't think has fixed all of their issues so yep still love the number still love the matchup um it's just what will this number end up being hopefully people grab the eight and a half when you gave it out how do you feel about betting it at seven and a half I still bet it just because it's just the unknown a little more I'm just I don't want people to go too crazy because he does come back this will definitely get back to eight I think eight and a half unless the professionals really keep this down um i can't say it happens just gonna be so much public money on this ravens team they're just one of the most beloved teams of football right now especially by the betting public they've just exactly what everyone predicted to happen with them has happened lamar even before he came back even the backup they've won it covered it feels like three games in a row here and they've totally flipped that division with a losing record they're the big odds on favor to win that division so um it's just i don't want people to invest too much here into this number just in case he does come back. But how can you not throw a little on if you did miss 8.5? Throw a little here on the 7.5 on this Browns team just in case. It is no Lamar. And this does move by another three or four points. We talked the other day about how much better the Browns are at home than on the road. So I did do a little… Research on it. The Browns at home since the beginning of last season when we really started to notice this trend give up 20 points per game at home, 29 points per game on the road, so 30% less at home. They also give up 30% fewer rushing yards at home than on the road, 95 versus 139. They also give up like 10% fewer passing yards, but being at home does make a difference. you know we talk about all the time it could be the grass it's obviously there's nuances of playing at home the weather certainly makes a difference i also think like the noise those fans are still rabid and i think the dog pound matters i just do like that it makes a difference for that team and i think the fans know it um so i like the i like the browns they were chad's choice presented by hard rock bet speaking of let's do a quick message from our friends at Hard Rock Bet. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. It's that time of year when every day feels like a big game day. You've got pro football, college football, NBA, college hoops, hockey. It's all happening. And on Hard Rock Bet, there's always something to bet on. If you haven't tried your first bet on Hard Rock Bet yet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets. 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Customers will pay $25 a month as long as they remain active on the Boost Unlimited plan. Hi, it's Colin Coward from the Colin Coward Podcast. Every goal starts with an assist. As official partners of U.S. soccer, this team is ready to deliver. Sensodyne, dentist recommended defense of your sensitive teeth. Centrum, fueling your day with science-backed nutrients. Advil, of course, powerful inflammation-fighting pain relief. Voltaren Arthritis Gel, helps penetrate deep keeps the joints moving and Tums ready to counterattack with fast heartburn relief Learn how Halion can assist your game day goals at halionassist slash con This is Jeff T from the Club 520 podcast. Oh my goodness. Now this is a performance you do not want to miss. The Dell XPS powered by Intel Core Ultra. It's got the sauce. We're talking speed, style, stamina. Bam. And a long lasting battery life. Unheard of in this league. 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That's coverage that you can count on for every single round. So when the moment happens, you're not catching up. You're already there. Now that, that's a total power move. In the UFC, power isn't given. It's taken. So make your total power move today. Visit TotalWildless.com or stop by your neighborhood Total Wireless store. 5G access requires a 5G-capable device in a 5G service area. Monthly rates on the Total Base 5G Unlimited plan. For new subscribers, applies only to the monthly rate for your plan. Additional terms apply. See website for details. All right. Kansas City at Denver. Denver is now three and a half at Hard Rock. There's still a bunch of fours out there as well. This was almost, almost your Simon Says. we heard about it on sharp calls. J.K. Dobbins, probably not playing because of a foot injury. He may end up going on injury reserve. They've been very mum about it. Are you still there? Still on it. I'm definitely leaking a little confidence here because I thought this would be all pros on this Broncos team, but I just don't think guys trust Bo Nix. I don't think so either. Yeah, I mean, that's fair. He regressed in a lot of ways but I glad I saw a good Sean Payton stat that gives me a little confidence at least This is a good Sean Payton game where basically if his teams only convert one red zone trip in two consecutive games in his career they are 14 straight up in that third game 5-1 against the spread in his career. So take what you want from that. It really looks like it's the type of thing where he just gets his offenses to bounce back situationally. It's been a rough go. Like, I'll be the first to admit that Denver's game was atrocious. They should have won that game by 20 points or more. And just Bo Nix gave them nothing. And they didn't trust him. Like, they just were not letting them throw at certain points because they just did not trust him putting the ball downfield. So, you know, this is just an interesting spot. So just the fact that in the last decade, you know, Sean Payton's 7-0 in this spot with the Broncos. He's 2-0 straight up and against the spread in this exact spot where he's basically had a really struggling offense and they've bounced back in these games. So I don't know about you. It's just the Mahomes factor because Mahomes just, I looked at it, historically dominates the Broncos in these games. He's been just great divisionally on the road. But I just, I can't get to the fact how bad the Broncos have been his whole career. He's been on the Chiefs. So it's like, I know Bo Nix is no different than those quarterbacks. Maybe I'm overrating him still too much, but it just feels like a lot of points for this Chiefs team going against a really good defense where I have some questions still about this Chiefs defense. There's still some ways I think they have holes that teams have exploited. And the biggest one would be passing downfield against them. So I know. That's why I didn't make it to him because I didn't want to make people invest once again in this Broncos team. I have some other gross dogs I like better than this one, but I'm on it. I've taken a pretty large position on it at this point. But maybe I'll temper it as we head into the weekend. I won't be put too much in because just the thought of Bo Nix is making me sick. Yeah. I feel like every time Bo Nix starts, he's so amped up. he could throw the ball through a wall. And they missed so many opportunities in those first 15 scripted where Sean Payton and a lot of coaches are at their best. And it's usually calming for most quarterbacks. And Bo Nix looked like he's ready to jump out of the stadium. And I also worry this defense without Pat Sertain against the Chiefs, that's a different kind of test that they haven't really had since Sertain was out. And so it's a much more difficult proposition for them. We don't love betting Mahomes. as a favorite of more than three. I get it. I like Peyton in this spot. I get it. I agree with you. We should tell you, though, it is Chiefs off a bye, which we have in the past. We just automatically bet it. Right. It's true. I know. I'm not going to lie to you. I'm not bought in on Denver at all here. I have not bet. I know. Even the other day when, you know, it's at four and you're hammering it. Can I give you some defensive stats that might help a little? Okay, let's hear. Let's see. It's like I'm trying to find a reason there because I just – it's just this number. I just can't get over it. But defensively – Just give me a reason. Defensively, they have 40-plus sacks, and this season they're holding opponents on third down to less than 3% conversion rate. They're the only defense to do that since 1990 other than the $2,000. You remember that team, right? That deal. It's like – Covered that Super Bowl. Nice. Yeah, it was a sick one. I just – I look at this and I'm just – maybe I'm betting the defense here. like that Houston game. And I got to stop thinking about Bo Nix, but we're going to need him to make plays. That's the hardest part here. It's like, you're going to need him to show up. It's just brutal, brutal, brutal. So yeah, I don't know if I'm going to force him to be one of our fives this week, if I'm really going to be like, Chad, you got to make, got to take this one. If it was four and a half, I probably could have got you there. But like you said, the fours have come back down. The three and a half feels like it's going to be out. So I do like the Broncos, but there's other dogs I like better this week. Detroit at Philadelphia. you turned me around on this the other day. I bet the Eagles at two and a half. That is where the number is right now. It's not the best of the number, but it's still below three. I still liked it. I reran my model because you know I got a model. I worked on it during the off season with my intern from Harvard's stats department. Not even kidding. And I think if you can give me a good team that came off of a tight win against a good team that just had a big win, I'm still going to get value on the good team off of the tight win. So I started to come around on the Eagles. You're saying from the wise guys that it seemed like it was split, but you kind of had me buy into the Eagles the other day when I think I was starting to lean towards the Lions. Yeah, the hesitation I feel like is a lot of the wise guys are taking positions on the Lions because of all those crazy numbers and trends about golf in primetime at night and how good him and Campbell have been They like covering machines I think they like something like 25 minutes against the spread It just something insane in these night games And then you factor in a stat we give out early in the year, right? When they blow teams out, they cover at an insane rate. They're like a 70% cover rate after they win by seven points or more the following game. So we know all this. We know what we're walking into. This is a really good team, the Lions. Like we said, it's about the number. So still like it. I mean, we talked on Tuesday. There was a couple of one-and-a-halves out there. I feel like as soon as the show was posted, they were gone, right? That got immediately up to two-and-a-half of basically every book. Hard Rock was the last one, though. Hard Rock held at the two for a while, and they did eventually move to a three, and then immediately went down. So there is a ton of resistance at the three, I feel like, for professionals here. With the Lions, which I do get in, matchup-wise, like I said, I don't know if the books are accounting for how good this defensive line now is for this Eagles team with the upgrade to the position. Because for about four weeks there, we had just two or three guys. We had no rotation. So you saw last week having guys sub in and out. It's just fresh legs. It's such a huge deal with these defensive fronts, how hard these guys run and work. And the biggest thing, I guess, would be, well, Eagles are on a short week, right? They traveled, you know, from Green Bay to this game home, I guess. But to me, it's the same with the Lions. They were on the road against Washington. And historically, actually, golf isn't great on back-to-back road games that are both outdoors, which, again, I know it's stupid stats, but all the stats for him are really dominant indoors. Like, it's insane. So we've got to grasp the straws we can, people. He is a different and not as good outdoors. And matchup-wise, I just keep going back to this Eagles offense. As much as they've struggled, the Detroit team has so many injuries. Like this is the exact type of defense you'd want to face for an Eagles team that needs to get right. So I expect after a week filled with drama, I don't know if you saw all the A.J. Brown stuff once again, but – Oh, yeah. Basically it was for the first time honest, which felt good to hear what actually is going on rather than like these news reporters dictating how he's feeling through his Instagram, which is just – shows a level of sports media reporting right now if that's what we're going off of. Don't impugn the media. This isn about how bad the media is although if you watch social media boy they ask a lot of stupid questions in open locker rooms and press conferences Yeah there you go Chad So I just he basically said him and Jalen have no issues Jalen's playing well. He's doing what's being asked of him. He's got no problems with the OC. He's doing what's being asked of him. So that leaves one person he's got issues with, and that's a big deal. It's Sirianni. So we'll see what happens. Basically, it came out that him – Sirianni had a call in that fourth down play, And Hurts and AJ went rogue and just said, it's going to you no matter what. Go deep. So there's a ton of drama right now. You mean a couple weeks ago against the Bucs, was it? Is that what you're talking about? No, last week. Last week? I don't remember the play. It was fourth down for our lives. The Eagles should have either punted or kicked a field goal against Green Bay, and they went for it. You don't remember this? It was like fourth and 11 or something crazy. Maybe I went to bed at this point. Well, he took a deep shot to AJ, and it was incomplete, and they left basically 30 seconds left for a green bait and maybe tie with a field goal to end the game. So it was just people were like, what the hell? Why would Sierra and he called that play? And he basically was just like, I didn't call that. They checked out. So there is a ton of drama, and I get why people are freaking out about this Eagles team. But just look at the matchup on the field. I just love this matchup for this Eagles team. And the public's flying into it a little bit. Like you said, the Lions, they're getting all the money, all the tickets right now. They are heavily a public dog. and the line is moving against them. Like I said, it's hit three in a couple of books. So if it touches three come Sunday, I will feel much better about our Eagles position. That means some real pro money is coming again on the two and a half, which most people listening, that's what they're taking on. Because right now all the pro money came in on the one and a half. So love the Eagles here, but obviously like Chad said, we wish we gave out the best of the number. You know what one team I don't worry about when there's a lot of drama? Who? The Eagles. Philly justice. welcome to philly bitch there's always drama like there has been drama i think nick sirianni attracts the drama i think people wanna like him not like him i don't think he cares i think he says whatever is on his mind i think he likes to be partly trolling and enjoys it and i think the eagles have the kind of personality that the bears had in the 80s and the cowboys had in the 90s like they're just these teams where there's big personalities a huge amount of talent and there always going to be some kind of turmoil in that locker room and i don think it matters like i i just don like that it all noise to me and it fun what that sirianni he is john madden so they put up the stat the only other quarterback that more wins through the first five seasons in nfl history percentage wise john madden and i thought about that comparison it feels so right that man joined a team of crazy drama Raiders team just ahead cases and no one took him serious for about five years even though he was leading the league in win percentage so I I'm one of those people I hated Sirianni I just hate the way he handled the media that way he talks to the fans all that but all he does is win and you got to respect it and like you said he he seems like he thrives when there's tons of in-house drama so you're right maybe I'm overreacting too much I just there's so much affiliate right now I can't can't get over how bad it is yeah I mean you're you're in the middle of the white noise you can't get away from it whereas like I'm just seeing it as funny and it's the same story every single week and every single year with this team and this team honestly I know they're not being nearly as effective but there's something about their lack of effectiveness that to me I'm only watching Jalen Hurts and Jalen Hurts when he's on the field doesn't seem bothered by the lack of effectiveness he has in the past this year it seems like the lack of effectiveness is almost by choice where he's just making the right calls and doing the right things and doing what needs to be won and not trying to do things to make sort of dramatic plays for lack of a better term and so i'm only watching him and he's just he's unbothered it's fair but like last year i had a sneaky i mean i guess it was thinking because i gave him out heading the year but i was just all in on that eagles team to win super bowl where this year i just have so many questions where last year i did not like i had one big question it was about that defense and after the bye week they got it right the eagles after their bye week the defense looked amazing but the offense left left a lot to the imagination so yeah this is uh like i said this is a perfect spot for this eagles offense to get right against a banged up lines defense let's talk about that crazy las vegas raiders plus three and a half simon says against the dallas cowboys on monday night uh you gotta want this you gotta you really gotta want it explain yourself simon hunter on the las vegas raiders i still love it um the the pushback i got The pros I have talked about this one is that Cowboys did get people back to their defense that are coming off injured reserve. And, you know, could that be a big upgrade for them? Sure. But my argument to them is it's like trying to fix a hole in a sinking ship with a truly a bandaid like there. They have so many issues. Their top corner bland has no legs anymore. He has no speed, like something that made him so special from just having a couple injuries. He's lost it. So I just love this match with this Raiders offense wise. I just think this is the perfect team to match up for them. And defensively, you know, you've seen the Cowboys have struggled this year. It's when they're facing against a good pass rush. So to me, Max Crosby, you know, I don't want to give too much credence to podcast people, but because, you know, every week I'm sure he might go on his podcast and stay himself. But I saw this week he's basically playing all these clips from people in the media, trashing him, saying how bad he's been and how that loss was on him like he did nothing in that Denver game, and they can't stop the run, everything like that. And I just love that type of thing for him where he's just going to be a mental case in this game. So it's shocking to me that there's no pros on this Raiders team yet. But like I said, maybe Sunday morning, I'll have more guys join me. But it's just because it's the Monday game, I feel like it's either been, from the pro side at least, they're taking the Cowboys or nothing at all at this point. All right. We got a lot to discuss. Well, you got a couple games you missed that I like. oh tell me what i miss what were we at with this panthers team i told you i got a lot of calls about it you know what's funny um are we missing it here i wonder if we are too i was actually just scrolling through because i was looking ahead to our underdog parlay and the panthers jumped out as a team that we would want to put in as the underdog parlay and obviously i've got trepidation because of what's happened with Bryce Young the past couple weeks. He just hasn't looked good. But I do think there's much more systemic issues with the Falcons than with the Panthers. To be catching three and a half, I feel like we both agree on that. Yeah. For a Falcons team that has so many issues. Speaking of social media, there was a clip the other day, I think I saw it yesterday, on the X platform where Michael Penix was asked about, you know who he leans on for support when things aren going well and who gives him advice He talked about his fiance and his high school coach The people he didn mention in his ears sort of that are helping coach him up, Raheem Morris and Zach Robinson, his offensive coordinator and his head coach. And I do think we're seeing some of this on the field where his performance has not been where it should be, but how much of that is on the coaching and how much of that is on the play calling so i do think that there's probably for lack of a better term better vibes in carolina i just don't know i guess i guess at the hook yeah we're taking carolina that's really what it is yeah and we didn't even talk about which was a mistake on my part atlanta is coming off an overtime game in an international this has never happened in the history of football usually it's happened five times all those teams had bye weeks it's the first time ever a team has played an overtime game internationally and come home to play the game. So there's that part of it. And, you know, the Penix part, you know, like we said, it's just inconsistent. And that's a lot of points for him to be catching in a divisional matchup where the Panthers have surprisingly owned the Falcons these last few times they've played. So, yeah, I just want to make sure I brought this one up. I just don't want people to be shocked if we do end up taking this one on Sunday. It's a game I'm bent into. I like the Panthers here, and it definitely was a miss on my part. I should have trusted my model, which had a two and a half. I just – I couldn't get what the books are doing. You're hanging this number. But I do think this comes down to three as more professionals come in and bet the Spanthers side. All right. I'm into that. I'm into that because to be honest, I think we were struggling to find five that we loved, not even like agreed on, just like five games that we were really in love with. So I could see that. And then before we go, I'm just going to throw out two games. Just line moving while we're doing the show live. Tampa has moved to plus six at a couple books. Jesus. So, yep, that's happening as we speak. And the Bears are shifting to two and a half. So we've talked about it a little bit. We both – I feel like we're trying not to, but we both are liking on the Bears at plus three. That's just – And this was at three and a half. This was at three and a half, by the way, last night. So to me it's about the number – We don't know because we're doing the show right now, but it's two and a half everywhere now. I do not like the Bears at two and a half. No, no, no, no. I like Vikings. I bringing it up for people If they want to grab the Bears I grab the three if you can before it moves That game was at three and a half All right Well the Vikings at two and a half might be an interesting play on Sunday Okay. I keep thinking about the Bears keep coming back against really bad teams. Well, Caleb against the NFC North, right? Can I invest in J.J. McCarthy? You know, that's just tricky. It's a really tricky one. Caleb was the one in his career, right, against NFC North? and it was like carolina all right so let's let's take a pause here for a sec because i want to recap cincinnati plus five and a half is a game we're both going to be on houston minus six and a half the bucks are now a plus six that's scary i'm glad we really haven't bet that we know we like the rams plus three we know we like minus three i mean minus three we know we like cleveland uh plus seven and a half plus eight plus eight and a half um we think we like philly”
LAR 21, SEA 19 — Rams beat Seahawks 21-19; Los Angeles' 2-point margin fell short of the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Next time. We'll get to that one next time. Baltimore at Cleveland. This one was Chad's choice when it was eight and a half.”
BAL 23, CLE 16 — Ravens beat Browns 23-16; Cleveland's 7-point loss stayed within the +8.5 spread, a cover (ESPN box score).
“the San Francisco 49ers are at Arizona. Arizona is a three-point dog. We liked Arizona on Tuesday. It was at two and a half. We wanted it to get to three. It did get to three. I don't know about you. I bet it at three. Marvin Harrison Jr. is out with an appendectomy. I don't think that matters to me.”
SF 41, ARI 22 — 49ers beat Cardinals 41-22; Arizona's 19-point loss busted the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Give me Panthers plus three and a half.”
CAR 30, ATL 27 — Panthers beat Falcons 30-27 in overtime; Carolina's outright win covered the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Eagles at two and a half.”
PHI 16, DET 9 — Eagles beat Lions 16-9; Philadelphia's 7-point win covered the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“But I do think there's much more systemic issues with the Falcons than with the Panthers. To be catching three and a half, I feel like we both agree on that. Yeah. For a Falcons team that has so many issues. Speaking of social media, there was a clip the other day, I think I saw it yesterday, on the X platform where Michael Penix was asked about, you know who he leans on for support when things aren going well and who gives him advice He talked about his fiance and his high school coach The people he didn mention in his ears sort of that are helping coach him up, Raheem Morris and Zach Robinson, his offensive coordinator and his head coach. And I do think we're seeing some of this on the field where his performance has not been where it should be, but how much of that is on the coaching and how much of that is on the play calling so i do think that there's probably for lack of a better term better vibes in carolina i just don't know i guess i guess at the hook yeah we're taking carolina that's really what it is yeah and we didn't even talk about which was a mistake on my part atlanta is coming off an overtime game in an international this has never happened in the history of football usually it's happened five times all those teams had bye weeks it's the first time ever a team has played an overtime game internationally and come home to play the game. So there's that part of it. And, you know, the Penix part, you know, like we said, it's just inconsistent. And that's a lot of points for him to be catching in a divisional matchup where the Panthers have surprisingly owned the Falcons these last few times they've played. So, yeah, I just want to make sure I brought this one up. I just don't want people to be shocked if we do end up taking this one on Sunday. It's a game I'm bent into. I like the Panthers here, and it definitely was a miss on my part. I should have trusted my model, which had a two and a half. I just – I couldn't get what the books are doing. You're hanging this number. But I do think this comes down to three as more professionals come in and bet the Spanthers side. All right. I'm into that. I'm into that because to be honest, I think we were struggling to find five that we loved, not even like agreed on, just like five games that we were really in love with. So I could see that. And then before we go, I'm just going to throw out two games. Just line moving while we're doing the show live. Tampa has moved to plus six at a couple books. Jesus. So, yep, that's happening as we speak. And the Bears are shifting to two and a half. So we've talked about it a little bit. We both – I feel like we're trying not to, but we both are liking on the Bears at plus three. That's just – And this was at three and a half. This was at three and a half, by the way, last night. So to me it's about the number – We don't know because we're doing the show right now, but it's two and a half everywhere now. I do not like the Bears at two and a half. No, no, no, no. I like Vikings. I bringing it up for people If they want to grab the Bears I grab the three if you can before it moves That game was at three and a half All right Well the Vikings at two and a half might be an interesting play on Sunday Okay. I keep thinking about the Bears keep coming back against really bad teams. Well, Caleb against the NFC North, right? Can I invest in J.J. McCarthy? You know, that's just tricky. It's a really tricky one. Caleb was the one in his career, right, against NFC North? and it was like carolina all right so let's let's take a pause here for a sec because i want to recap cincinnati plus five and a half is a game we're both going to be on houston minus six and a half the bucks are now a plus six that's scary i'm glad we really haven't bet that we know we like the rams plus three we know we like minus three i mean minus three we know we like cleveland uh plus seven and a half plus eight plus eight and a half um we think we like philly minus two and a half. I don't love the Raiders, but I do like the Panthers a lot. I get it. The Raiders are tough, man. It's tough. Raiders are tough. You got to bet it. You got to keep fading this Dallas team as a big favorites. It's been profitable this year, fading them. So we got some decisions to make on Sunday. Give me your biggest bets right now. It sounds like Panthers might actually be in there. Pull up those pants and be a man. They're getting there. Honestly, I really took a heavy position on Cleveland like we talked about. I really thought, not that that number was going to come steaming down because of what we were talking about, but got very lucky that I bet it before all the Lamar news. Still lucky at plus 7.5, as long as it's above the 7. Rams, keep hitting it. I got tons on 2.5, a ton on minus 3. If it gets a minus 3.5, I'm not going to be that invested into it. It's all about the number here. So if it stays on the 3, I really think that'll be one of my bigger bets come Sunday I'm probably going to get there probably going to get there on this Eagles team I just right now I haven't taken too big of a position but it's just that I thought the one and a half would pop again so I'm going to try to be patient on that one but it seems like it keeps getting to the three it's not going the way I want it to so I might just have to suck it up and just take the two and a half on this Eagles team Alright let's do a three team parlay for underdogs i would do carolina mm gotta do cincy cincinnati yep that was on my list Plus 200 Should we do Cardinals Well, we didn't talk about the Cardinals. No, we did briefly. I know. I'm not crazy about it, but it's either them or the Jags. These are good home dogs. Let's do the Cardinals. All right. So three-team parlay, Carolina, Arizona, and Cincinnati.”
Parlay busts: Panthers beat Falcons 30-27 in OT (covers +3.5, won); Cardinals lost 41-22 to the 49ers (busts +3, lost); Bengals lost 34-12 to the Steelers (busts +5.5, lost). Two of three legs failed, so the parlay loses (ESPN box scores).
“I'm telling you right now, the Cleveland Browns plus eight are going to be Chad's Choice presented by Hard Rock Bet.”
BAL 23-CLE 16 — Ravens beat Browns 23-16 (Browns margin -7), covering +8 (ESPN box score).
“So we know we like Baltimore minus three and a half.”
BAL 27-MIN 19 — Ravens beat Vikings 27-19 (margin +8), covering -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“We know we like the Bucs minus two and a half.”
NE 28-TB 23 — Patriots won 28-23; Buccaneers lost outright, busting -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“We like the Cardinals plus six and a half in this spot at Seattle.”
SEA 44-ARI 22 — Seahawks beat Cardinals 44-22 (Cardinals margin -22), busting +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“So, again, I just wanted to bring that one up because I'm not trying to force the Lions in. If I'm going to force a game in, even though I'm against it, betting-wise, I guess it's the Eagles. All right, let's do the Eagles. Doing the Eagles. We're doing the Eagles because... a much better number in the contest. That's really what we're talking about here. So the final five, Jesus, I can't believe, that's such a shock to me. I can't believe, two minutes ago, I did not see us putting the Eagles in. Baltimore minus three and a half. Bucks minus two and a half. Arizona six and a half. Miami nine and a half. It's on you, brother. Philadelphia plus two and a half. That's on Monday night.”
PHI 10-GB 7 — Eagles beat Packers 10-7 outright, covering +2.5 (ESPN game recap).
“But first, let's get to that Raiders Broncos game. Obviously, it's our Thursday show. So a lot of people might not hear the show until after the game. you're getting some feedback from the professionals on the Raiders side. We both love Denver. And like this wasn even a question We actually were debating if Denver was going to be Simon Says or Chad choice because we both liked it so much We liked it at eight and a half It now at nine and a half.”
DEN 10-LV 7 — Broncos beat Raiders 10-7 (margin +3), busting -9.5 (ESPN box score).
“But as you said here right now, I'm betting into the two and a half without even knowing who the quarterback is. Yeah, I am as well.”
NYJ 27-CLE 20 — Jets beat Browns 27-20 outright, covering +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“Jacksonville at Houston. Houston, look, on Tuesday, we talked about wanting to wait on this game until Houston was an underdog. Houston is an underdog. It's one at Hard Rock Bet, one and a half in a lot of other places. We're just betting on the defense.”
HOU 36-JAX 29 — Texans beat Jaguars 36-29 outright, covering +1 (ESPN box score).
“and he's doing exactly what Kyle Shanahan needs him to do. The number is way too big. It shouldn't be four and a half points. And so that's the side. Simon, you and I, we have confidence. Niners. Niners are the side.”
LAR 42-SF 26 — Rams beat 49ers 42-26 (49ers margin -16), busting +4.5 (ESPN box score).
“Let's do three. Let's do three for the underdog parlay. My dog likes your dog Your dog likes my dog Jets plus 110 I was just going to say Jets have to be in there Mm Texans? Let's see. Yeah, I like that. Niners? I like that. All right. Underdog, Moneyline, Parlay, Round Robin. Jets, Houston, Niners.”
Round-robin parlay busts: Jets beat Browns 27-20 (won) and Texans beat Jaguars 36-29 (won), but Rams beat 49ers 42-26 so the 49ers ML leg lost, sinking the parlay (ESPN box scores).
“Favorites? Panthers. Panthers, Lions. Panthers, Lions, Ravens. Ravens, for sure. Bucks minus 140. We're all in on the Bucks either way. Yeah, that's true. That's true. Bears are minus 210. Let's do the Bears. Bears? Let's do the Bears. Yeah.”
Favorites parlay busts: Panthers lost to Saints 7-17 and Buccaneers lost to Patriots 23-28, sinking the parlay despite Lions, Ravens, and Bears all winning (ESPN box scores).
“Buccaneers minus two and a half against the high flying Drake May MVPing New England Patriots.”
NE 28-TB 23 — Patriots won 28-23; Buccaneers lost outright, busting -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“So to be clear, our final five are going to be Los Angeles Chargers. It's nine right now. We like it at nine. It's eight and a half in the contest. No, Chargers are nine and a half in contest. It's Chargers minus nine and a half in the contest. I think we're fine with that. Yeah, yeah. As long as they're under 10.”
LAC 27, TEN 20 — Chargers beat Titans 27-20; LA's -9.5 spread busts (won by only 7).
“Minneapolis or Minneapolis, Minnesota at Detroit. Detroit is a nine-point favorite. This was Chad's choice. This is another one where I'm glad it finally ticked up. I think some of this is a lot of public money starting to come in on Detroit. At the end of the day, the reason why I like this and I think you like it too is we believe more in Jared Goff and Dan Campbell at home as big favorites given their history plus their running game, which is the strength of this team, than we do in J.J. McCarthy on the road in his first game after nearly two months of being out in a Vikings run defense that just frankly has not been very good this year. Yeah, and this is another bet where I like to lie to myself and say I wouldn't usually make this, but I would years ago because of what you just talked about. It's Campbell, Goff in a matchup at home against a team that's just struggling right now. And this is not the answer, right? JJ, him coming in and burning us because there's no tape on him. And he has this incredible, impressive game because there is a winner in him. We know he has a guy that knows how to win and make big plays at big moments. But this just feels like a horrible, horrible spot for this kid to step into. Rusty walking into this. And you talked about the Flores defense. It's not what it was last year. They're not getting these turnovers. They're not getting pressure on the quarterback. You said their run defense is just terrible Their best thing is their pass defense but I think we seen them against a couple of good passing offenses That might not be so true So it just might be a horrible disaster spot for them Like you said, this number, a bunch of books are already pushing 9.5. Hopefully people listen to Chad here. Chad's Choice got it to 8.5. It's moving on up.”
MIN 27, DET 24 — Vikings beat Lions 27-24; Detroit's -8.5 spread busts (lost outright).
“This is what happened to us. Denver at Houston. Houston minus two now. This was our brass balls. And I got a lot of questions about this. How can we make this our brass balls? Look, we're still betting a team that's under 500 that is a favorite in a game that flipped in which they used to be underdogs against a first place team. It's moved a little bit, I think, because Nico Collins is going to be playing and it moved a little bit off of the injury news about pat certain that he won't be playing so i like the matchup here i like the opportunity i like the texans defense uh i have no fear of betting this at two we've been betting at minus one and a half yeah and to the naysayers be happy we must made the chargers this bet which i really don't think takes any balls i think this takes much more balls and the fact that like chad said this is a true test for cj this is gonna be the best defense he's faced. This is going to be the best offensive line that's Houston's front is faced defensively. So I think it takes a little bit of balls. But the big reason we love it so much too is we kept hammering home. We felt the line. We were getting a good number. It's proven out. I mean, a couple of really public books out there are still at the one and a half. I'd still grab that if you can. But a lot of books. I've already hit two and a half this morning. So you can see the way the professionals are going. And I think it's another week the public's going to try to fade this Texas team. Like last week, the 49ers. It's not as extreme. I think last week we joked it was like 80% of the bets on the money was coming in on that 49ers side. This is way more split, right? There's much more professional money. The tickets obviously is on Denver, but the money is on Houston here. So, you know, we try to get out the best of the number. I feel like we did it Sunday night, gave out the plus one and a half. Early in the week, gave out the one and a half and gave it again on Thursday. So, yeah, it's just a number I would be shocked if it all holds at two and a half. I could see more buyback from the public this morning on this Broncos team. But the direction, like I said, it's going is minus two and a half.”
DEN 18, HOU 15 — Broncos beat Texans 18-15; Houston's -1.5 spread busts (lost outright).
“I think Green Bay in this game in the contest is 12 and a half. So we like Carolina plus 13 and a half.”
CAR 16, GB 13 — Panthers beat Packers 16-13; Carolina's +13.5 spread covers (lost by only 3).
“and it is five and a half in the contest. So I haven't bet it. I've like – I told you I took a little position in Atlanta. I don't know. The Patriots really had no feel for this game, but you're confident in it. The other pros are confident in it. I'm not going to fight you on it if we put it as our fifth one. Well, I like it also. We're getting a little bit of a better number. I think Green Bay in this game in the contest is 12 and a half. So we like Carolina plus 13 and a half. We like Atlanta. At least I do. I think we're going to put – I know we're going to put – I'm committing us to putting Atlanta into the contest.”
ATL 23, NE 24 — Patriots beat Falcons 24-23; Atlanta's +5.5 spread covers (lost by only 1).
“You can get minus two and a half on Green Bay right now. I think that's a pretty good value. I'm interested to see the professionals do the pros will come in with the public and hit that line. I'm interested to see if that's, that's what the possibility is here. Oh yeah, you're right. That Atlanta Colts game is in Germany. I believe I could be wrong, but no, you are. That's right. That's right. It's international, right? Okay. That makes more sense. Damn it. I mean, I already bet it. So I'm already dug in on it, but yeah, before we get out of here, just I'm interested to see what the pros do with that Eagles line. I feel like that's a very tempting to the public, going to be a very public dog. Eagles plus two and a half. And I'm going to grab the Green Bay just in case it does go up to three.”
PHI 10, GB 7 — Eagles beat Packers 10-7 on Monday Night Football; Green Bay's -2.5 spread busts (lost outright).
“I bet the Chargers at eight and a half.”
LAC 27, TEN 20 — Chargers beat Titans 27-20; LA's -8.5 spread busts (won by only 7).
“and moving this number down to eight and a half. But like you said, we'll take that value. Well, you just mentioned the other game, Minnesota at Detroit. Detroit is a nine-point favorite at Hard Rock, eight and a half at a lot of other places. I love it. This was Chad's choice. Why are people getting excited about J.J. McCarthy? Why are they trying to find the good in the two games that he played, which weren't very good, and getting excited about the number of eight and a half or nine for the Vikings? the Lions are a dominant team they do not have close games if they have close games it's games that they lose when they win they win so freaking big and this is a classic spot for them to win so big and I pointed this out on Tuesday it's not about the Brian Flores pass rush and pass defense. This Vikings rush defense just hasn't been good all year. They're bottom 10 across the board in multiple advanced analytics stats. Like this is not a rush defense that is going to hold up against a dominant rush offense, which is really what the Lions like to be. And we've seen that over multiple weeks. So I'm getting the Lions, Jared Goff, Dan Campbell, in a great rush offense against a bad rush defense at home with a quarterback who hasn't played in six weeks who they may or may not have been keeping”
MIN 27, DET 24 — Vikings beat Lions 27-24; Detroit's -8.5 spread busts (lost outright).
“I know we both bet it at plus one and a half. We even said on Tuesday we still liked it at Texans minus one and a half”
DEN 18, HOU 15 — Broncos beat Texans 18-15; Houston's -1.5 spread busts (lost outright).
“I definitely bet the Jags a minus three. Kansas City, Kansas City minus two at Buffalo. This was Simon says when it was one and a half, it's moved towards two at a lot of places. But when it hits two, it seems like some buyback has happened on the Buffalo Bills. No Isaiah Pacheco in this game for the Chiefs, but no Ed Oliver for the Bills. Like in the scheme of things, I think that's a much worse situation for the Bills than it is for the Chiefs. I'm going to like backing Mahomes as a short favorite in just about any scenario. I like backing the unit offensively that I think is more complete against a depleted defense. I know that the Chiefs are riding high. I know”
KC 21, BUF 28 — Bills beat Chiefs 28-21; Kansas City's -2 spread busts (lost outright).
“Oh, no, I already bet the Jags a minus three.”
JAX 29, LV 30 — Raiders beat Jaguars 30-29 in OT; Jacksonville's -3 spread busts (won by only 1).
“All right, let's talk about some of these the money line favorite parlay Why not Kansas City Houston? Lions Chargers and one more Rams Packers No because they big Let get the juice down a little bit Let's throw in – I mean you like Jacksonville, Chad. I love Jacksonville. Minus 150. Great. Put it in. I don't hate that. Or we could throw in Dallas, minus 145. I like that. I think I like Dallas more than I like fuck I hate them both kind of actually I don't think about it those are two good options because again you're not with me on the Colts which I think they're yeah they're minus 170 so the odds aren't as good either let's go with Jacksonville okay money line round robin favorites Kansas City Houston Chargers Detroit Jacksonville”
KC 21-BUF 28; HOU 15-DEN 18; LAC 27-TEN 20; DET 24-MIN 27; JAX 29-LV 30 — Money-line round robin busts: Chiefs lost to Bills 21-28, Texans lost to Broncos 15-18, Chargers beat Titans 27-20 (won), Lions lost to Vikings 24-27, Jaguars beat Raiders 30-29 OT (won); with two of five legs losing outright the parlay does not clear.
“But that also tells me something. And the fact this number hasn't moved off of the seven half after the news about Lamar basically being said he's going to be the starter and that all the money and the tickets are coming in on the Ravens, this number hasn't moved tells me that somebody somewhere likes the Dolphins aggressively. Which is shocking because as much as I get it, like I've talked about, this is a nice to a spot. It's like we are talking about backing a Dolphins team after a huge road win when the whole house is on fire. We're not talking about it. So I just I'm on Miami. I'm just I can't get over as someone that's taking a position out on the Ravens. Obviously, a couple of weeks ago to win their division, everything like that. This is no doubt a must win game but this is the type of game that does trip up this type of team So you can get plus 330 plus 340 right now in Miami money line If you're taking the plus 7.5, you have to sprinkle a little bit on that Miami money line.”
MIA 6, BAL 28 — Ravens beat Dolphins 28-6 on Thursday Night Football; Miami's +7.5 spread busts (lost by 22).
“minnesota at detroit detroit is an eight and a half point favorite very excited to hear your response to my analysis of this game because the first thing you said off the top of the show as soon as you said that it's trap week my mind immediately went to this game And I don't care because Chad's choice presented by Hard Rock Bet is going to be the Detroit Lions.”
MIN 27, DET 24 — Vikings beat Lions 27-24; Detroit's -8.5 spread busts (lost outright).
“and I would have felt better about the Broncos chances even though I had bet the Texans if Pastor Tane was playing because the Broncos are so good at getting extra pressure with five guys because they know Pastor Tane is on somebody and they can they can not worry about that side of the field I think that this is a big big difference and I'm just glad I got the plus one and a half”
DEN 18, HOU 15 — Broncos beat Texans 18-15; Houston's +1.5 spread busts (lost by 3).
“Jags oh yeah I love the Jags here yeah I'm just glad you stayed away no no I still bet the Jags Oh, no. Minus three.”
JAX 29, LV 30 — Raiders beat Jaguars 30-29 in OT; Jacksonville's -3 spread busts (won by only 1).
“Arizona at Dallas. Dallas is a two-and-a-half point favorite. but it's come down from Cowboys minus three. That one I don't get. I actually, I like the Cowboys here. I like it situationally. I like that Kyler will be starting. It's good we're on opposite sides this week. We are on a lot of opposite sides. Yeah, that's good though. We were agreeing too much. I just think it the right spot for the Cowboys I just you know my opinion I don think the Cowboys should be favorites or anybody unless they playing some of the worst teams in football Arizona to me is not one of the worst teams in football If it's Kyler, shockingly, don't mind him coming back in this spot. This is the perfect type of defense to get right against. They're just abysmal in every way. So, yeah, you're probably right if you want to get to minus two and a half. I don't mind that if you're going to get Dallas. But if it's three, it has to be Arizona. This is not the type of game Dallas will be able to blow a team out with. I think Arizona will be able to be competitive. Their offense can move the ball, whether it's Kyler or Bursette. I have confidence in this Arizona offense to stay and keep it close with the Dallas team. But like you said, the Dallas offense, the trust of their kicker, if it's under three, okay, that's fair enough. They have the best kicker in football. That's a key number for what type of kicker he is. But yeah, at plus three, the value to me is all on Arizona. Like the money line plus 130 as well. That's the value I want to be at. Yeah, I play both of these primetime games. I'm just playing the number. Three and a half and two and a half. Three and a half and two and a half. That's what I'm doing. I'm getting the home team at less than a field goal with a great offense against a not great defense.”
ARI 27, DAL 17 — Cardinals beat Cowboys 27-17; Dallas's -2.5 spread busts (lost outright).
“if you're say if you're throwing Colton all of a sudden I'd go with Giants like to me it's Houston plus one Denver minus three and a half and by the way Houston we still like it at the current numbers two two and a half not an issue for us no uh Houston plus one”
HOU 26, SF 15 — Texans beat 49ers 26-15; Texans +1 covers (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, obviously, we were hoping for a minus three. It's minus three and a half. I have no problem betting the hook with this Denver team. I love this matchup.”
DEN 44, DAL 24 — Broncos beat Cowboys 44-24, covering -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Simon, whether the number is seven or six and a half, we're going to be on New England here.”
NE 32, CLE 13 — Patriots beat Browns 32-13, covering -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, plus seven, plus seven and a half. I've come a long way on this giant, so I start to really like this number.”
PHI 38, NYG 20 — Eagles beat Giants 38-20 (margin 18); Giants +7.5 failed to cover (ESPN box score).
“Baltimore Ravens, minus six at Hard Rock Bet right now. [37:42] Unfortunately, I bet them at six and a half, but we are on them. [37:45] We are on the Ravens. [37:45] That is our Brass Balls Bet of the Week, sponsored by Hard Rock Bet.”
BAL 30, CHI 16 — Ravens beat Bears 30-16, covering -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“I have the New York Giants plus seven and a half at Philly.”
PHI 38, NYG 20 — Eagles beat Giants 38-20 (margin 18); Giants +7.5 failed to cover (ESPN box score).
“Dallas at Denver. Denver minus three now. This was Chad's choice when it was three and a half. It moved in my direction basically because I move lines. And so nothing really moving me off of this pick other than nightmares of Bo Nix throwing into empty spots in the middle of a zone,”
DEN 44, DAL 24 — Broncos beat Cowboys 44-24, covering -3 (ESPN box score).
“It's Pittsburgh plus three. [1:06:55] Purely a play on the Steelers as dogs at home.”
GB 35, PIT 25 — Packers beat Steelers 35-25; Steelers +3 failed to cover (ESPN box score).
“We're betting into a guy we haven't seen play at a high number, but I disagree with the market. It's minus six and a half. I think that's right. If he is fully go and practice moving well, I mean, they're going to get guys back on their own defense too. The Ravens here is just a terrible spot for this Bears team. They're just walking into a team with a month of frustration, fully healthy after being well-rested by a week. It's like, can the Bears do it? Yeah, we've seen them pull the rabbit out of their ass a couple times this year. They've been, like we talked about, they've been one of those impressive teams that they've going to earn that right to be a wildcard team if they keep winning those close games. So could they play tight? Sure. But the Ravens, we know the Ravens, we bet usually this is the type of game they absolutely roll. It's an NFC team. Lamar just doesn't lose to them. Yeah, it's it's a game where even if you're not confident about this Ravens team, you just got to trust the number. If this was a fully healthy, we knew Lamar was all good. This would probably be closer to eight and a half, nine. So I think we're still getting value on this line. I'm going to take it. I'm happy to hear that you're on it as well, the minus six and a half.”
BAL 30, CHI 16 — Ravens beat Bears 30-16, covering -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“it's the Tennessee team that probably is a good number 14 and a half 14 but at 13 and a half I'll take the Colts”
IND 38, TEN 14 — Colts beat Titans 38-14, covering -13.5 (ESPN box score).
“The Denver Broncos minus three will be Chad's choice.”
DEN 44, DAL 24 — Broncos beat Cowboys 44-24, covering -3 (ESPN box score).
“I hope people were listening because I bet it at three and a half. I know you did too. How do we feel at three?”
GB 35, PIT 25 — Packers beat Steelers 35-25; Steelers +3.5 failed to cover (ESPN box score).
“I just feel so much better betting a good defense against a terrible Miami team and a two-eighth quarterback who doesn't travel. We're going with Cleveland. I feel good about it. All right. Our final five. Cleveland minus two and a half.”
CLE 31-6 MIA — Browns beat Dolphins 31-6; Cleveland -2.5 covers by 22.5 (ESPN box score).
“[26:19] Tennessee, 7.5. [26:21] Got to be in one of our five.”
NE 31-13 TEN — Patriots beat Titans 31-13; Tennessee +7.5 busts, losing outright by 18 (ESPN box score).
“[31:01] We got Detroit. [31:02] In the contest we play, they're at minus 4.5.”
DET 24-9 TB — Lions beat Buccaneers 24-9 on Monday Night Football; Detroit -4.5 covers by 10.5 (ESPN box score).
“[31:07] And we're playing Houston. [31:08] We get them at 3.5.”
SEA 27-19 HOU — Seahawks beat Texans 27-19 on Monday Night Football; Houston +3.5 busts, losing outright by 8 (ESPN box score).
“calls miami at cleveland cleveland is a two and a half point favorite this was chad's choice the two and a half lasted for about 24 hours after our show and it got bumped up to three because i move lines we know that the better is buying it back moving back down to two and a half I'm going to be honest, and I didn't know this was going to be in sharp calls, but I could have predicted it I would have felt better if it stayed at three for a little bit longer I kind of surprised by the buyback And then I will tell you also the fact that over the past 24 hours Tua has been taking blowback for his comments about the team meetings and the players-only meetings, and now he's apologizing. And Mike McDaniel gave him a little bit of grief at a press conference about it. That worries me. It worries me because when those teams are at their lowest and you think you've got it nailed, that's when you end up getting burned a little bit. I'm still on the Browns.”
CLE 31-6 MIA — Browns beat Dolphins 31-6; Cleveland -2.5 covers by 22.5 (ESPN box score).
“Tennessee Titans plus seven. [39:33] That is our brass balls bet of the week.”
NE 31-13 TEN — Patriots beat Titans 31-13; Tennessee +7 busts, losing outright by 18 (ESPN box score).
“New York Giants at Denver. I don't think we need to spend too much time on this. I don't think it's going to make it. I love it. I totally love it. It never got to the 6.5 like I was hoping it would. It actually is moving closer to 7.5. You can see the juice and it's heading in that direction. So my final statement on the game, I think there's a defensive advantage for the Broncos. I think it's a home advantage for the Broncos. I think it's a coaching advantage for the Broncos. I don't think that Cam Scadaboo and Jackson Dart have seen anything close to what the Broncos can do to confuse them, to stop the run, to make it challenging, to lock down their outside receivers with Pat Sertain when they don't have Malik neighbors. Massive situational advantage to me. I bet it at seven.”
DEN 33-32 NYG — Broncos beat Giants 33-32 on a field goal as time expired; Denver -7 busts, winning by only 1 (ESPN box score).
“First up, we've got Detroit as a five-and-a-half point favorite at home against Tampa Bay. Open to five-and-a-half. Got that down to four and a half. We loved it on Tuesday when it was four and a half. We both bet into it at four and a half.”
DET 24-9 TB — Lions beat Buccaneers 24-9 on Monday Night Football; Detroit -4.5 covers by 10.5 (ESPN box score).
“Last game on the board, Houston. I loved it the other day, a plus three and a half. I nearly made it. Chad's choice. They're visiting Seattle. Late night, Monday night, doubleheader. I'm totally opposed to it. I could go Troy Aikman crazy on this idea. But until this morning, I was surprised and concerned that it had not moved from three and a half down to three. And then this morning it did. And so that was kind of the validation. You know I need validation. You needed that? I need validation and positive feedback all the time in every way. And that moving from 3.5 to 3 was the validation I needed on a Thursday morning. So I feel great. I feel great. I love it. Let's bet it. It's already bet for me at 3.5.”
SEA 27-19 HOU — Seahawks beat Texans 27-19 on Monday Night Football; Houston +3.5 busts, losing outright by 8 (ESPN box score).
“So the underdog parlay, Vikings, Cowboys, Jets, Falcons, Texans, the favorite parlay.”
Underdog ML parlay busts: Vikings lost to Eagles 22-28; Cowboys beat Commanders 44-22 (won); Jets lost to Panthers 6-13; Falcons lost to 49ers 10-20; Texans lost to Seahawks 19-27 (ESPN box scores).
“I just think the Bengals are the right side at five and a half.”
CIN 33-31 PIT — Bengals beat Steelers 33-31 on a game-winning field goal; Cincinnati +5.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“The Cleveland Browns minus two and a half are Chad's choice.”
CLE 31-6 MIA — Browns beat Dolphins 31-6; Cleveland -2.5 covers by 22.5 (ESPN box score).
“to come back he definitely is coming yeah it's down to four and a half now so you know detroit's got injuries they got guys getting suspended you expect expect man campbell historically bounce back game against a Baker team that yeah this is technically a Baker line this is Gritty Baker usually covers back doors this number he is so due for a bad Baker game three pick Baker game like we know that he has that in his bag It Baker So it all there for the bounce back Detroit shockingly make this number minus six and a half So, like, can't believe it. It's really about the injuries to this Bucs team, I believe, and all the injuries they've had compared to Detroit, who does have injuries. But historically, their offense in these spots just rolled teams. And I'm going to dive into the trends and stuff, But I just feel like every time Campbell has a day where their fourth downs don't work, like the previous game, the next game they go five for five on fourth downs or whatever it is. I know I'm probably just making that up, but it feels that way because he's a 70% cover. Like, they didn't cover last game. Usually these are the spots they bounce back and cover. So I know. I know, Chad. It's sickening. It's my guy, Baker. He's been so good to me. He's one of the few guys who I've just been betting every week. And it's just he's just, you know, don't need to watch because he's going to win it for me. but I do watch because I love the ride. But yeah, this is a Detroit number, Detroit line, and I'll probably end up on that side. I'm so glad to hear you say that because I didn't want to have a fight about this because I love Detroit here. I'm worried about the lack of corners and Brian Branch has already been suspended. He can appeal. He might be able to play this weekend, but... He's going to lose that appeal. I think we got to expect that he's not going to be playing this weekend. It's a lion's line. Are you kidding me? The Lions at home in a dome. Jared Goff at home in a dome in his career. So this includes the Rams, but mostly the Lions. 69% against the spread. This is the spot. Hello, Detroit. You've won my heart. You got to back the Lions here. I love the Lions here.”
DET 24-9 TB — Lions beat Buccaneers 24-9 on Monday Night Football; Detroit -4.5 covers by 10.5 (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Texans at plus three and a half, the first bet that I actually made.”
SEA 27-19 HOU — Seahawks beat Texans 27-19 on Monday Night Football; Houston +3.5 busts, losing outright by 8 (ESPN box score).
“I still like the Panthers at plus three and a half”
CAR 30, DAL 27 — Panthers beat Cowboys 30-27 outright; Panthers +3.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Cleveland at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh currently a six-point favorite. Look, we've been touting the Steelers every show this week. Tuesday, we loved them at four and a half. Thursday, we loved them at five and a half. It's now six, trending. six and a half. It's going to be a bigger number than what we have been saying people should choose all week. Four and a half in our contest, Lions Lock on Wednesday, reminder to people. I think anyone who is watching right now, you've lost the value on the Steelers. Most places, it's probably trending to six and a half. So you're just not getting the best number. But geez, the Steelers rested with just about everybody back. Still like him in the contest for sure.”
PIT 23, CLE 9 — Steelers beat Browns 23-9; margin of 14 covers Steelers -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“You and I have both been betting the Chiefs. We've been betting the Chiefs since it was at one and a half, two, two and a half.”
KC 30, DET 17 — Chiefs beat Lions 30-17; margin of 13 covers Chiefs -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“Now it's at nine, nine and a half, nine at Hard Rock, nine and a half other places. In our contest, it's six and a half. I'm not recommending anybody play it at nine and a half, but sorry, folks, we got to talk about it. We've liked the Colts all week at a good number. Now it's exploded. How do we not play this?”
IND 31, ARI 27 — Colts beat Cardinals 31-27; margin of 4 falls short of Colts -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“we talked about it on Tuesday and both like the Chargers. The line had dropped from four and a half to four. That's where I actually bet it.”
LAC 29, MIA 27 — Chargers beat Dolphins 29-27; margin of 2 falls short of Chargers -4 (ESPN box score).
“So I bet the Packers at 14 for a little”
GB 27, CIN 18 — Packers beat Bengals 27-18; margin of 9 falls short of Packers -14 (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Chiefs at minus two.”
KC 30, DET 17 — Chiefs beat Lions 30-17; margin of 13 covers Chiefs -2 (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Bears at four and a half.”
CHI 25, WSH 24 — Bears beat Commanders 25-24 outright; Bears +4.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, give me Panthers plus three and a half.”
CAR 30, DAL 27 — Panthers beat Cowboys 30-27 outright; Panthers +3.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“model couldn't lie to me tell me to take cleveland here so unfortunately yeah it's i'm on more chalk i i i want to be on it because there are still some fives out there for cleveland even though hard rock's at four for the steelers so if you do like cleveland the you can join the pros and find that line up there but it's another side i feel like the public is right i feel like the steelers are right and once again very very lazy it feels like of me but the rest of sparity has to be a factor here that has to matter yes like these this ain't week two this is you're deep into the season now week six the guys have been through it right we joke every time that but it's real Sundays are you're going through car crashes like you're literally what these people put their bodies through is insane and you can't make enough of how big of a deal it is to be on three straight real games and then go for international coming back to play this Pittsburgh team so um yeah again chalky bet but I'll take that Steelers minus four yeah it became more clear in the light of day that the Steelers felt like the right side I'm glad we're getting a little bit of a lower number now I'm curious to see what Sharp Calls will say on Thursday but we are in agreement”
PIT 23, CLE 9 — Steelers beat Browns 23-9; margin of 14 covers Steelers -4 (ESPN box score).
“underdogs. Look, the Saints had a great comeback against the Giants, so people love the Saints right now. The Patriots had a huge win against the Buffalo Bills in prime time, so everyone's loving Drake May right now. I got an opinion on this game. Interesting. I do too, Chad. Give me them Saints plus three and a half, Simon says. Oh, boy. Call me Simon. What do you want? I want to play a game. What kind of game? Simon Says. Simon Says, presented by Hard Rock Bet, the Saints plus three and a half. Give me your explanation. Pretty simple. The general public, the squares will be loving this Patriots team. And they love it so much, they've already bumped it. This was three. They bumped to the three and a half. I'll take that value on an undervalued Saints team that will be undervalued every week. That's just the way it is, especially against a team that won a game that, let's be honest, they had no right winning. Probably you could even argue covering. It's just so many things went their way, and that's why I thought Vrabel was such a great hire for them because that, to me, was a Vrabel win. Like the way the defense plays, you know, Drake May had some huge big-time throws, but it was also, you know, a game that, to me, that was the worst game the Bills could have possibly played. Like that, between the turnovers, the penalties, all of it, they just, I would burn those jerseys and never wear them again. Those things just felt cursed. whatever it was it felt what i don't again i don't know it just felt like the ball was super slippery to them on that jersey and whatever it is i know it's stupid conspiracy but i would i would not be wearing those again um they do look cool but you're getting a highly overvalued new england team i mean the victory laps guys are taking right now on drake oh yeah drake may is top 10 quarterback mvp drake may is played on an mvp level so these guys are all going to retire because they can still get, this morning, you can still get plus 350 on New England to win that division. So all of you guys I happy for you You all going to retire to your Nantucket and good for you So yeah it peak right now for this team in New England It's not a great match for them, honestly. Like, this Saints team, we talked about it. I think their defense is better than people perceived. They have a lot of veterans. Offensively, I believe they found an identity, and you can attack this Patriots defense. Like, this Patriots defense is not good. We've seen that this year that, you know, they to me have been fortunate. Like the Saints are not a good team, right? So this is another matchup you expect for Abel to be a big advantage here. But to me, it's on the road in a spot where this Saints team, I don't think they're going to get too high from that last win. Like I said, they're a veteran team that's believed in themselves. They've been really good at home this season, which was another reason I liked backing them against that Giants team. And at the end of the day, I think this is going to be another square very sharp. Like it's going to be the squares are going to be on New England. It's going to be the public side. Like you already can see the numbers, all the money, all the tickets have come in on this New England side. Some books have even touched four, but it immediately got bet down by the professionals. So I'd be shocked if this sits at three. I think we could see movement going in that this could drop to three once more professional money comes in. because, like I said, I think more guys are adjusting their model to this Spencer Rattler. He's better than I certainly had him graded coming into the season. He's improved every week. And, yeah, like I said, that Giants game, should they have won 26-14? No, they shouldn't have blown them out. But it's nice to see the public's not overreacting to that. They're overreacting to that Patriots win and drinking the Drake-made Kool-Aid. So this would be a statement win, honestly. Once again, this Patriots team, if they can show me they're mature enough, to handle a big win on Sunday night and go on the road on a short week now because they did play. Their game ended at, what, 1130 midnight Sunday night. That's a tough short week travel to go play the Saints team. So, yeah, it's just about the number. If this was 2.5, I'd have no issue being okay with this Patriots side. But once again, another game I have a minus one on the Saints. So if I have it off by 4.5, I've got to make it. Simon says I can't avoid it. I hate it. I'm all in once again two weeks in a row on the Saints team, but it's just playing the numbers. It's a good number on an undervalued Saints team that I just don't think the public come around on them yet so I getting a good number here just because the Patriots love is its peak right now It insane the stuff I been seeing I wonder you could look at it as the Saints being loved and the Patriots defense actually being undervalued Because don't forget, they played the first, what was it, four games without Christian Gonzalez. who made multiple key plays in that defensive backfield for the Patriots against the Bills. The Patriots top eight in EPA per play, top eight in EPA per pass success rate. Saints defense bottom seven in the league in all of those categories. The line actually did get down to two and a half on Sunday night and then got that back up immediately, even before the Patriots won. So there was some, I think, sharp sentiment on the Patriots at the two and a half. And like, I think Christian Gonzalez in the backfield is a bit of a difference maker here. So what are you trying to say, Chad? Do you like the Saints? You haven't said exactly what you're trying to say. Stop talking around. it give us a pick here i like the patriots”
NE 25, NO 19 — Patriots beat Saints 25-19; margin of 6 covers Patriots -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“The Las Vegas Raiders. Look, they're coming off a blowout. Lowest of the low. The entire world is questioning Gino. I'm getting Pete Carroll against Brian Callahan. I'm getting the Raiders at home where they're going to be more comfortable. I'm getting Tennessee thinking, oh my God, we actually escaped and got a win. third straight road game for a team that has won and covered killer sports 33 68 and 3 against the spread give me the Las Vegas Raiders minus 4.5”
LV 20, TEN 10 — Raiders beat Titans 20-10; margin of 10 covers Raiders -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“And so give me the Bears plus four.”
CHI 25, WSH 24 — Bears beat Commanders 25-24 outright; Bears +4 covers (ESPN box score).
“obviously we're going to take houston at plus three and a half given the way the lines have moved uh over the course of the week with lamar jackson and this was a move that you predicted on tuesday as simon says do we still put it in the contest yep locking in that's a quick one three and a half got to take for Houston”
BAL 10-HOU 44 — Texans routed the Ravens 44-10; Houston's +34 margin easily covers the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“We're doing the Commanders at plus two and a half, but you can get a three with the Commanders out there. So go and get it.”
LAC 10-WSH 27 — Commanders beat the Chargers 27-10; Washington's +17 margin covers the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I think Kyler left for a minute because he had a foot injury my early position hard rock right now in Jersey is minus 5 Colts, super public line, I'll take it.”
ARI 27-IND 31 — Colts beat the Cardinals 31-27; Indianapolis' 4-point margin falls short of the -5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Obviously, I bet it. I definitely bet the Jags. at plus three and a half.”
KC 28-JAX 31 — Jaguars beat the Chiefs 31-28 on Monday night; Jacksonville's +3 margin covers the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I did bet the Broncos at four and a half.”
PHI 17-DEN 21 — Broncos beat the Eagles 21-17 with a fourth-quarter comeback; the outright win covers the +4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“this is a this is a this is a houston number here plus three and a half i believe yeah the only thing that scared me kind of annoyed me i would have bet it yesterday um i just bet it literally while you were talking your urgency inspired me to make the bet while you were talking”
BAL 10-HOU 44 — Texans routed the Ravens 44-10; Houston's +34 margin easily covers the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'm definitely going to take Washington at three.”
LAC 10-WSH 27 — Commanders beat the Chargers 27-10; Washington's +17 margin covers the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“monday night football kansas city visiting the jacksonville jaguars who are currently three and a half point underdogs simon simon chad loves the jacksonville jaguars”
KC 28-JAX 31 — Jaguars beat the Chiefs 31-28 on Monday night; Jacksonville's +3 margin covers the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Let's start with the Chargers. So the Chargers are now six and a half at the New York Giants. We know Jackson Dart is starting for the Giants. this was Chad Love's and I think it's one of the more controversial moves that we made all week just because we don't know what's going to happen with Jackson Dark Jackson Dark as the new starting quarterback for the Giants and it's so freaking chalky to be taking a big favorite I still like him at 6.5 I've bet him at 6.5 I'm not walking away from that”
NYG 21, LAC 18 — Giants beat Chargers 21-18; Los Angeles's -3 margin fails to cover -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, look, to me, this is a little bit like you in the Chargers. I like it. I don't love it. I like the three and a half. I like the Tristan Wirfs. The left tackle is back considering the other injuries on Tampa Bay. I like that Guy Wynn is back considering Evans is out. I never worry about Baker and injuries because Baker just balls no matter what. And I do think it's a good spot to fade the Eagles who are probably to me a little bit inflated after what happened last week against the Rams. So I don't love it. I like it.”
PHI 31, TB 25 — Eagles beat Buccaneers 31-25; Tampa Bay's -6 margin fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“against the Giants. This took a lot of our attention on Tuesday, too much, honestly, because while I was loving it, the Chargers at six. It moved to six and a half before I could grab it while we were talking about it on the show. And it remained the pick that I love. Chad loves the Chargers. I got it at six and a half.”
NYG 21, LAC 18 — Giants beat Chargers 21-18; Los Angeles's -3 margin fails to cover -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“I just I'd heavily bet this one. I really love this number. I don't think you're going to have to force me. I've already bet. I bet it at the worst number. I bet it at three. So I don't feel like there's going to be any arm twisting on this where we've talked about the Chargers. That was my Chad loves pick. We've talked about the box. That was Simon Says.”
PHI 31, TB 25 — Eagles beat Buccaneers 31-25; Tampa Bay's -6 margin fails to cover +3 (ESPN box score).
“It's minus nine as a brass balls game. I'm good for the brass balls. I love Detroit. All right, so then let's do it. Detroit Lions, minus nine. They're going to be our brass balls bet of the week.”
DET 34, CLE 10 — Lions beat Browns 34-10; Detroit's +24 margin covers -9 (ESPN box score).
“New Orleans at Buffalo, speaking of big spreads, this number's at 16 and a half. You had this rated at 17. It was 15 and a half on Sunday. Got up to 16 and a half. actually got back down to 15 and a half. I took the 16,”
BUF 31, NO 19 — Bills beat Saints 31-19; Buffalo's +12 margin fails to cover -16 (ESPN box score).
“the line has moved in that direction it did move to three and a half it might be three at hard rock right now but i do think there's a mostly three and a halves out there i i'm glad i got the niners at three because i feel really good about the bet right now yeah even three and a half again”
JAX 26, SF 21 — Jaguars beat 49ers 26-21; San Francisco's -5 margin fails to cover -3 (ESPN box score).
“all right Survivor bills so are we are we not thinking we just going super lazy and taking bills are we are we going to try to be cute and go go houston i've been thinking about it like who are we going to this is the spot we have an oh and three houston team that could easily be three you know at home against the tennessee team that we both agree are lost beyond law and cam ward popped up on the injured list did he really i thought i heard that somewhere interesting well that makes sense i've seen a couple books move to seven and a half which blew me away because again this is another spot where you have if you're betting you have to bet tennessee there all right let's get cute let's take the texans go texans i like it yeah i like it too because it's like the perfect spot”
HOU 26, TEN 0 — Texans beat Titans 26-0 outright; Houston moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“take that plus 185 with Panthers for uh the favorites parlay Bills Lions Chargers Rams yeah love the Rams who's the fifth Texans or Denver I I just I'm like I'm really into those both let's do the Broncos okay all right Survivor”
BUF 31-NO 19; DET 34-CLE 10; NYG 21-LAC 18; LAR 27-IND 20; DEN 28-CIN 3 — Four of five parlay legs won (Bills 31-19, Lions 34-10, Rams 27-20, Broncos 28-3) but the Chargers lost outright to the Giants 21-18, busting the five-team favorites moneyline parlay (ESPN box scores).
“Tampa Bay is a three point dog. This one may be at three at Hard Rock, but it is three and a half in a lot of places and moving in the Ingles direction. And this one I wanna ask you specifically about because you highlighted this on sunday night before we even started talking about games you were saying it was the week to fade the eagles i bet the bucks a plus three um why why is this line”
PHI 31, TB 25 — Eagles beat Buccaneers 31-25; Tampa Bay's -6 margin fails to cover +3 (ESPN box score).
“I took the Falcons plus three.”
ATL 34, WSH 27 — Falcons beat Commanders 34-27; Atlanta's +7 margin covers +3 (ESPN box score).
“chad loves the los angeles chargers minus six couldn't get away from it”
NYG 21, LAC 18 — Giants beat Chargers 21-18; Los Angeles's -3 margin fails to cover -6 (ESPN box score).
“I already bet the Falcons at plus three.”
ATL 34, WSH 27 — Falcons beat the Commanders 34-27 behind a career-high 313-yard game from Michael Penix Jr.; Atlanta +3 covers by 4 (ESPN box score).
“I am on the Chiefs minus 5.5.”
KC 22, NYG 9 — Chiefs beat the Giants 22-9; Kansas City -5.5 covers by 7.5 (ESPN box score).
“I have bet the bears at plus one and a half. I'm pretty sure you have too.”
CHI 31, DAL 14 — Bears beat the Cowboys 31-14; Chicago +1.5 covers by 18.5 (ESPN box score).
“Let's talk about Green Bay at Cleveland. So look, the number is 7.5 at Hard Rock Bet right now. It's moved down. It was at 8.5. And you've already pinpointed Cleveland is the sharp side. I do have a confession to make. I had been holding off on this game. And then yesterday afternoon, it was at 8.5. It was 8 or 7.5 at most places. There was one book where it was 8.5. 8.5 minus 110. and I'm like what am I doing like this is the game we are supposed to love betting this is the game where we say to ourselves we know what we're doing we see the money going in the opposite in the browns direction so I felt like I had a little bit of a KPI, for lack of a better term, to get all corporate-y. Like, the majority of the money is on the Packers. We're back in the 0-2 team. That's the trend. I'm not saying it's a Final Five. But, Simon, I'm drawing a line in the sand. Okay?”
CLE 13, GB 10 — Browns beat the Packers 13-10 on a walk-off 55-yard FG as time expired; Cleveland +7.5 covers by 4.5 (ESPN box score).
“i'm not i'm not betting this based on the trends all right i'm betting this”
JAX 17, HOU 10 — Jaguars beat the Texans 17-10; Houston +1.5 busts by 5.5 (ESPN box score).
“if this is the best i'm going to get for minus three i'm taking the eagles minus three”
PHI 33, LAR 26 — Eagles beat the Rams 33-26; Philadelphia -3 covers by 4 (ESPN box score).
“But Dallas at Chicago. Chicago on Tuesday was a one-and-a-half point favorite. Now at Hard Rock, they're one-point dogs. Other places, one-and-a-half. You chastised me for not choosing the Bears. Thank God you didn't. On Tuesday. And I'm glad I waited, brother. Yeah. This is how much betters hate Caleb Williams. Maybe they hate the Bears defense. You know, the Bears are dogs. The world is against my hometown of Chicago. It's time to make the Chicago Bears our Brass Balls Bet of the Week. Look, I'm trying to be reasonable about this. I've sent all the charts about how Caleb is, you know, identical to Josh Williams and his stats through these number of games to my buddies, to my son. I've ignored the charts. Why would you do this to yourself? Listen, I've ignored the charts that say he's also identical to Mitch Trubisky through this number of games in his career. I just don't really get why the number has moved so much for the Cowboys who basically allowed Russell Wilson to have the greatest game of his career. That's what I'm betting on. It's more than Caleb bounce back or anything else. It's the number moved too far. Give me the team that's the dog on the move across zero.”
CHI 31, DAL 14 — Bears beat the Cowboys 31-14; Chicago +1.5 covers by 18.5 (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Chiefs minus five and a half after say the Packers and maybe the Colts it could be the chalkiest play of the week”
KC 22, NYG 9 — Chiefs beat the Giants 22-9; Kansas City -5.5 covers by 7.5 (ESPN box score).
“our round robin underdog money line runner round robin underdog parlay uh texans um denver Chicago. Love them. We got to put someone a little bit longer in there, but I'm not loving the Browns. Can I get you on the Panthers? Yeah, I can do the Panthers. No problem. Okay, because they're, let me check what their live number is. Plus 200. That's good value. Then we need one more. I honestly want coming into the show. I wanted to do the Rams after seeing that stat by, um, about hurts in the exact spot. I couldn't get there. Should we just do it? Should we keep riding the, the bangles train your, your love? Like that's a weird game. I feel like we didn't talk about the bangles. No, I actually feel great about the bangles. I'm on the Vikings. I have no read on this game. I just feel like the Vikings. You're probably right. You know, they've got so many injuries. I know. Forget about Carson Wentz and you know is Kevin O a quarterback whisperer Who knows but Jake Browning might be awful though Like he I know he had good throws and Jake Browning might be awful though I know he had good throws Jake Browning might be awful Jake Browning also has the confidence of this team And at the end of the day, he's thrown in Jamar Chase. And Jamar Chase looks even the worst quarterback look decent. That's true. And he can overcome turnovers because he's got Jamar Chase. So we're not going to do anything with it. But yeah, let's put the Bengals in.”
JAX 17-10 HOU; LAC 23-20 DEN; CHI 31-14 DAL; CAR 30-0 ATL; MIN 48-10 CIN — Underdog ML round robin busts: Texans lost 10-17 to Jaguars, Broncos lost 20-23 to Chargers, Bengals lost 10-48 to Vikings — Bears (beat Cowboys 31-14) and Panthers (beat Falcons 30-0) won, but three losing legs sink the parlay (ESPN box scores).
“What about our Moneyline Round Robin? The moneymaker. The favorite. Yes. So let's get chalky. Let's go Colts. They might not cover. They're winning that game. We believe in Danny Jones, Indiana Jones, and that Colts team. Chiefs? Chiefs, Eagles. So that's three right there. What are the Bucs? Bucs are seven. I don't mind the Bucs there. Minus 360, that's, yeah, it's not terrible. What about, we got Colts, Chiefs, Eagles. One more. Bucks. I mean, we're just trying to be safe and win people money. I just, Seahawks don't lose that game. Sam Donald's not losing to the Saints in that spot. I was thinking Seahawks or Packers, so let's go with Seahawks.”
IND 41-20 TEN; KC 22-9 NYG; PHI 33-26 LAR; TB 29-27 NYJ; SEA 44-13 NO — Favorite ML round robin cashes: Colts beat Titans 41-20, Chiefs beat Giants 22-9, Eagles beat Rams 33-26, Buccaneers beat Jets 29-27, Seahawks beat Saints 44-13 — all five legs won (ESPN box scores).
“Kansas City, it's at five and a half or six. That's Chad loves love.”
KC 22, NYG 9 — Chiefs beat the Giants 22-9 on Sunday Night Football; Kansas City -5.5 covers by 7.5 (ESPN box score).
“Rams at Tennessee. contest line is five and a half. It's still five and a half. This was our brass balls bet again. We thought the Rams would be down two O-linemen. They are only down one. Left guard, Steve Avila. Look, I bet it at five and a half.”
LAR 33, TEN 19 — Rams beat Titans 33-19 in Week 2; Tennessee lost by 14, failing to cover +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“and it's a nice, nice fade next week on this Jets team. because they're, you know, a 60-yard field goal away from being 1-0 from last week and in a spot that it potentially could be 2-0. And it's like I think the general public is still sleeping on this team. And, yeah, once again, we're banking on fields as a dog higher than three, which is usually a good spot to back them. So six and a half, we'll take that every time in the contest. By the way, while you were talking, I started to get nervous that this line was moving in the opposite direction. So I bet the six and a half.”
BUF 30, NYJ 10 — Bills beat Jets 30-10 in Week 2; New York lost by 20, failing to cover +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“New York Giants at Dallas Dallas at five and a half pretty much settling there we know we got a little bit of grief from wise guys that we were on the square side on Thursday I'm seeing everything everyone is saying Russell Wilson will be better against this Cowboys secondary than he was against the Commander secondary Deron Bland is out for the Cowboys I just looking purely at a quarterback quarterback situation I'm going to bet on Dak at home in a dead number that is lower than six.”
DAL 40, NYG 37 — Cowboys beat Giants 40-37 in overtime in Week 2; Dallas won by 3, failing to cover -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“comfortable with the with the cowboys here i bet him at five and a half and i'm bummed because if i had known about the bland injury and you know could have gotten more half point of value but i don't uh i don't mind the cowboys here”
DAL 40, NYG 37 — Cowboys beat Giants 40-37 in overtime in Week 2; Dallas won by 3, failing to cover -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“Buffalo at New York Jets. New York Jets are six and a half at Hard Rock. Every time this game touches seven, it gets back down to six. On Tuesday, I leaned bills a little bit and you talked me out of it. Another 48 hours of research. I coming around to your side Simon this is our Rock in a hard place hard rock bet of the week New York jets.”
BUF 30, NYJ 10 — Bills beat Jets 30-10 in Week 2; New York lost by 20, failing to cover +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Tennessee Titans plus five and a half. For the second week in a row, this team is our Brass Balls Bet of the Week.”
LAR 33, TEN 19 — Rams beat Titans 33-19 in Week 2; Tennessee lost by 14, failing to cover +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“This is going to be our rock in a hard place, hard rock, bet of the week. We're taking the eagles minus one and a half it's going to be one of our favorite five boom lock it done”
PHI 20, KC 17 — Eagles beat Chiefs 20-17 in Week 2; Philadelphia covers -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“of our five favorite picks. And we're going to ride or die with this Eagles team. In fact, I'm making a change right now. I'm making an executive change. This is our rock in a hard place, hard rock, bet of the week. Because we will be so against what the conventional wisdom is in terms of betting on the Chiefs as dogs. We will be so against the wise guys on this game. I am transitioning. This is going to be our rock in a hard place, hard rock, bet of the week. We're taking the eagles minus one and a half it's going to be one of our favorite five boom lock it done”
PHI 20, KC 17 — Eagles beat Chiefs 20-17 in Week 2; Philadelphia covers -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“Do you want to do a favorites parlay at this point? Yeah, let's get super chalky with it. Start out with our guys, Dallas Cardinals. We like them. I think they're a team that could easily win against that Panthers team that looks like I already talked about Rams. I just – McVay wins those games. He might not cover, but he wins those games. A nice little hedge against our own bet, which I always love, taking those spots. It's – I know it's painful, Chad, but don't we have to do the Lions? I was just going to say. Are they Lions going 0-2? Lions, to me, are automatically in there. And the last one, again, I want to hear your view on it. Oh, I guess we have to go Bills. Never mind. We'll go Bills.”
All five parlay legs won outright in Week 2: Cowboys beat Giants 40-37 (OT), Cardinals beat Panthers 27-22, Rams beat Titans 33-19, Lions beat Bears 52-21, Bills beat Jets 30-10 — parlay cashes (ESPN box scores).
“he loves the seattle seahawks plus three what that's the shocker of the day this is your favorite bet now i can't really find one that i love love love bring back bullying america um yeah that's i'm shocked i i like this number two i have no fear that it's up to three if anything i'm hoping more public money comes up and the books have to shift it again to three and a half because right”
SEA 31, PIT 17 — Seahawks beat Steelers 31-17 in Week 2; Seattle covers +3 (ESPN box score).
“So right now, just to recap, we've got chargers at three and a half. We already covered that one.”
LAC 27-21 KC — Chargers beat Chiefs 27-21 in Sao Paulo; Los Angeles won by 6, covering the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“The contest line is five and a half. Book it. Locked in. So, like, again, one of the five plays I put in on Tuesday, Cleveland plus five and a half.”
CIN 17-16 CLE — Bengals beat Browns 17-16; Cleveland lost by 1, covering the +5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Miami, plus one and a half, Chad. This is your baby. You love it still. Are you getting cold feet? It's another spot that it's super public. It's super chalky. But I told Chad I can squirm my eyes and I see it. I see exactly what he's saying in this matchup. that it's Miami two indoors against a really bad secondary everybody's healthy this is not a banged up Miami team so it's tough it's tough I see exactly what you're saying but um yeah it's I love it I want it I I I'm so glad you're listing it I actually had it on the list”
IND 33-8 MIA — Colts beat Dolphins 33-8; Miami lost by 25, busting the +1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I've already bet Miami minus one and a half against the Patriots at home. I love it.”
NE 33-27 MIA — Patriots beat Dolphins 33-27; Miami lost by 6, busting the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I grabbed it at plus three.”
LV 20-13 NE — Raiders beat Patriots 20-13; Las Vegas won outright, covering the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Baltimore is visiting Buffalo at Hard Rock Bet. The Ravens are now a one point favorite. That's a big move, folks, because when we did the show on Tuesday, they were one and a half point underdogs, which means the Baltimore Ravens are our rock and a hard place. Bet of the week presented by Hard Rock. This one is gratis for our friends at Hard Rock Bet. Listen, we liked the Ravens when it was one and a half and they were dogs. we don't love betting a line flip um but the more i look at this game the more i feel like i'm betting a complete team against a team that is josh allen and everyone else who needs to be lifted by josh allen”
BUF 41-40 BAL — Bills beat Ravens 41-40; Baltimore lost outright, busting the -1 spread (ESPN game recap).
“the chad loves love bet was detroit plus two and a half and that number is now at hard rock bet down to two”
GB 27-13 DET — Packers beat Lions 27-13; Detroit lost by 14, busting the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“round robin underdog parlay here's what i think saints panthers lions raiders cleveland agree or disagree i'll um i'll switch out the raiders for uh the jets all right saints Saints Panthers Jets Lions Cleveland”
ARI 20-13 NO; JAX 26-10 CAR; PIT 34-32 NYJ; GB 27-13 DET; CIN 17-16 CLE — All five Week 1 moneyline legs lost: Cardinals beat Saints 20-13, Jaguars beat Panthers 26-10, Steelers beat Jets 34-32, Packers beat Lions 27-13, Bengals beat Browns 17-16 (ESPN box scores); parlay busts.
“So I'm doing Miami. I think I got one and a half or one. What's Hard Rock say right now about Miami? I'm almost positive they moved to, let me pull it up. They moved to plus one. Yep. All right. Plus one”
IND 33-8 MIA — Colts beat Dolphins 33-8; Miami lost by 25, busting the +1 spread (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Cowboys a plus seven.”
PHI 24-20 DAL — Eagles beat Cowboys 24-20; Dallas lost by 4, covering the +7 spread (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Cowboys on the money line at plus 240.”
PHI 24-20 DAL — Eagles beat Cowboys 24-20; Dallas moneyline at +240 busts (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Browns plus five and a half.”
CIN 17-16 CLE — Bengals beat Browns 17-16; Cleveland lost by 1, covering the +5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Chad loves the Detroit Lions at plus two and a half.”
GB 27-13 DET — Packers beat Lions 27-13; Detroit lost by 14, busting the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“The Bengals under nine and a half.”
Bengals finished the 2025 regular season 6-11, under the 9.5 win total (NFL.com standings). (CIN 6-11)
“I going to bet Ravens Lions Ravens Eagles probably Ravens Niners as part of my Super Bowl matchup round robin”
Ravens finished the 2025 regular season 8-9 and missed the AFC playoffs entirely, so every leg of the Ravens Super Bowl-matchup round robin lost (NFL.com AFC standings). (BAL 8-9)
“So I'm going with Lions plus 145 because I like getting plus money on this team to win the division.”
Chicago won the NFC North at 11-6; Detroit finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs (ESPN standings). (DET 9-8)
“I like the Commanders under nine and a half total wins.”
Washington finished the 2025 regular season 5-12, comfortably under the 9.5 win total (ESPN standings). (WAS 5-12)
“All right, Miami. As I said, division seven to one, conference 35 to one, Super Bowl 75 to one, win total seven and a half. I'm telling you, man, if Tua is healthy, this is a competitive team, no matter how bad their defense is. Every time you look at the stats for the past few years, when he is playing a full season, I know we don't like him as a quarterback. I know we would never put him in a top 10, but he is a top 10 quarterback across every single metric. Superficial stats, advanced metrics, anything you look at because of who he is, because of the system he plays in, he is just too good in this offense. He is too accurate. The offense is too hard to stop on short slants and quick throws in short yardage situation. So everyone is down on them, which screams to me, give me the over seven and a half.”
Miami finished the 2025 regular season 7-10, under the over 7.5 win total (ESPN schedule/results). (MIA 7-10)
“Niners over 10.5.”
San Francisco finished the 2025 regular season 12-5, clearing the over 10.5 win total (ESPN standings). (SF 12-5)
“Seahawks under 8.5.”
Seattle finished the 2025 regular season 14-3, well past the under 8.5 win total (ESPN standings). (SEA 14-3)
“But Raiders six and a half was my favorite.”
Las Vegas finished 3-14, well under the 6.5-win total, so the over lost (ESPN final standings). (LV 3-14)
“My list was Raiders over six and a half, Chiefs division but parlaying it,”
Denver (14-3), not Kansas City (6-11), won the AFC West, so the parlay's Chiefs division leg lost (ESPN/Wikipedia final standings).
“All right, just sprinkle a little on 15 to one Raiders just for the show. They're a little bit. Tiny Scotian Raiders. It could be fun to end the season. I love it. I'm in. I'm all in, Simon. Listen, the favorites will return. Let me recap. Let me recap. We just did it though. Raiders over six and a half. Chiefs divisional odds for Simon. Broncos divisional odds for both of us, although it's less value. Raiders 15 to one to win the conference.”
New England, not Las Vegas (3-14), was the AFC champion that lost Super Bowl LX to Seattle 29-13, so the Raiders-to-win-AFC bet lost (Wikipedia: Super Bowl LX).
“I had, saints under five and a half,”
New Orleans finished 6-11, one win over the 5.5 line, so the under lost (ESPN final standings). (NO 6-11)
“I had, saints under five and a half, panthers over six and a half,”
Carolina finished 8-9, clearing the 6.5-win total, so the over cashed (ESPN final standings). (CAR 8-9)
“San Francisco could end up being the number one seed in the NFC? Simon, yes or no? Yes. Just because of schedule. Brandon? Yes. They're my one Super Bowl ticket right now. Chad? Yes. They're one of my two Super Bowl tickets right now.”
The Seattle Seahawks beat the San Francisco 49ers 41-6 in the NFC Divisional Round and went on to win Super Bowl LX over the New England Patriots 29-13, so the 49ers Super Bowl futures ticket lost.
“So I'm betting on Brock Purdy, 35 to one.”
Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams) won the 2025 NFL MVP award, so the Brock Purdy MVP futures lost.
“I bet the niners 25 to one to win the Super Bowl.”
6-41 — The 49ers were eliminated in the Divisional Round, losing 41-6 to the Seattle Seahawks, who went on to win Super Bowl LX, so the 49ers-to-win-the-Super-Bowl futures lost.
“We have the Dallas cowboys, seven point underdogs on the road against the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.”
PHI 24, DAL 20 — Eagles beat Cowboys 24-20 in the Week 1 2025 opener; Dallas lost by 4, covering the +7 spread (ESPN box score).
“The, money line number is plus two forty for the Cowboys.”
PHI 24, DAL 20 — Eagles beat Cowboys 24-20 in the Week 1 2025 opener; Dallas lost outright, so the Cowboys moneyline bet lost (ESPN box score).
“I think I'm with Abilene. Feel like Alright. I feel like, a, he's also up there. I think he's, what, 66, 67, number one. Number two, I think if we're talking about and I I I if we're talking about the makeup of the conclave, still heavily European. Yeah. 49%. To them to them, France may be Asia. And what I mean is they could be looking at this as that Asia and Africa might be one step too far. But we get a guy from Marseille, and that is a melting pot, and that he has been a a town in France that has been at the epicenter of what a lot of has been igniting anti immigration sentiment in France and a lot of conflict within the country. As you can see, I'm very well read. And so I think this guy can represent something that is, you know, not 10 degrees off center, but maybe three degrees off center, and to what is ultimately a very conservative body, as no matter how much we talk about liberal, moderate, progressive, and conservative, this is ultimately a very conservative body. I think he represents change given what we've seen so far. If we're playing a guy who's not even on the board, basically, who can reach a plurality of voters, who is moderate but not progressive, can be a little bit different he's not Italian, but he's not African. I think it's him. I would be fine with that. I I got some action down on him.”
The 2025 papal conclave elected Cardinal Robert Prevost, who took the name Pope Leo XIV, on May 8, 2025; Jean-Marc Aveline was not elected, so the bet lost.
“I may or may not have bet on the Bears to win the Super Bowl. I'm just saying, Simon”
The Bears (11-6) lost 20-17 in OT to the Rams in the Divisional round on January 18, 2026, and the Seahawks went on to win Super Bowl LX, so the Bears futures bet lost (ESPN).
“I wanna take Chalamet here.”
Adrien Brody won Best Actor for The Brutalist at the 97th Academy Awards, so the Timothee Chalamet bet lost (Wikipedia, 97th Academy Awards).
“This week, I personally parlayed Xavier Worthy under five and a half receptions and Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown. Thanks to doctor Nick Giffin. That was, four to one.”
Xavier Worthy caught 8 passes in Super Bowl LIX, well over the 5.5-reception leg of the parlay, so the SGP lost regardless of the touchdown leg (ESPN box score). (Xavier Worthy: 8 receptions (leg line 5.5, under leg lost))
“I am heavily invested in the Chiefs money line.”
PHI 40-22 KC — Eagles beat Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX; Kansas City lost outright, busting the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“I bet this as soon as it opened at Kansas City minus one and a half and Kansas City on the money line at minus $1.20.”
PHI 40-22 KC — Eagles beat Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX; Kansas City lost by 18, busting the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I bet this as soon as it opened at Kansas City minus one and a half and Kansas City on the money line at minus $1.20. Simon, Simon, I'm making Kansas City on the money line my exact decision.”
PHI 40-22 KC — Eagles beat Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX; Kansas City lost outright, busting the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“The the the look ahead lines for the chiefs and the eagles is one and a half one and a half. Kansas City minus one and a half. That is what it opened at. As I said, this thing was moving before we even came out in the air. I I bet it at one and a half.”
PHI 40-22 KC — Eagles beat Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX; Kansas City lost by 18, busting the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I also bet the chiefs on the money line at minus one twenty.”
PHI 40-22 KC — Eagles beat Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX; Kansas City lost outright, busting the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“If you wanna grab eagles now just in case the line does move. I think you did. Right, Chad? Yeah. I took the four and a half.”
55-23 — Eagles beat Commanders 55-23 in the NFC Championship, margin +32 covers -4.5 (ESPN team schedule).
“I immediately bet the Chiefs at one and a half.”
32-29 — Chiefs beat Bills 32-29 in the AFC Championship, margin +3 covers -1.5 (ESPN team schedule).
“I did bet the chiefs. I moved it down to two and a half, and I moved the bills up to seven and a half. So you can see it in the app. I've got a teaser on the bills at minus two and a half bills plus seven and a half, chiefs minus two and a half.”
Parlay cashes: Chiefs beat Texans 23-14 (cover -2.5, margin +9) and Bills beat Ravens 27-25 (cover +7.5, margin +2); both legs won (ESPN team schedules).
“The LA rams at Philadelphia, eagles are minus six. The total is 44. It's gone up a little bit. This was my exact decision.”
28-22 — Eagles beat Rams 28-22, margin +6 exactly matches the -6 line; pushes (ESPN team schedule).
“Let's start with that Chargers game. Right now, the number of bet three six five is charters minus three. The total is 42 and a half. There is a two and a half out there. It is available. I've hit the two and a half a couple times. I know, Simon, you've probably hit it more. This was my exact decision.”
HOU 32, LAC 12 — Texans beat Chargers 32-12; Chargers -2.5 loses by 20 (ESPN).
“I'm still good with the Steelers here at 10.”
BAL 28, PIT 14 — Ravens beat Steelers 28-14; Steelers +10 loses by 4 (ESPN).
“Denver at Buffalo. Buffalo is now a nine point favorite. This was a and the total's 47. This was a stubborn, stubborn eight and a half. One of the lines that barely budged during the week, it moved to nine, I think, this morning at Bed 365. So much freaking love for Boonex, so much fear of Sean Payton, and what they can scheme against the Bills defense that has struggled late in the year. Buffalo thirtieth in EPA per pass allowed since week nine thirty second in passing success rate. I don't know. It's not like the bronco's defense is impervious to criticism. Josh Allen has dominated man coverage, which is what the broncos play. Boenix has been much worse against zone than against man, which is what the bills predominantly play. I still like the Bills here.”
BUF 31, DEN 7 — Bills beat Broncos 31-7; Bills -9 covers by 15 (ESPN).
“The total at 50 and a half, I like the under two.”
TB 20, WSH 23 — Commanders beat Buccaneers 23-20, combined 43; under 50.5 covers (ESPN).
“I did bet it at two and a half. I bet the chargers. It's at three.”
HOU 32, LAC 12 — Texans beat Chargers 32-12; Chargers -2.5 loses by 20 (ESPN).
“Isn't it crazy that the Steelers are 10 underdogs? It's like, isn't this the ultimate overreaction? I rolled over, opened up the action app. I used quick slip, by the way, and I bet the steel is a plus 10.”
BAL 28, PIT 14 — Ravens beat Steelers 28-14; Steelers +10 loses by 4 (ESPN).
“On Sunday night, we felt so locked in on the bills. I bet him 7 and a half.”
BUF 31, DEN 7 — Bills beat Broncos 31-7; Bills -7.5 covers by 16.5 (ESPN).
“Still happy to take the three and a half. I can just see this going up, especially if the injury news does come out. This is gonna get up to what? Six or seven, Chad? Yeah. My first instinct on this was we're betting the Eagles. Like, I just I keep thinking about this defense.”
GB 10, PHI 22 — Eagles beat Packers 22-10, a 12-point margin that covers -3.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Denver broncos, speaking of a seven seed and a two seed and an eight point line, broncos are eight and a half on the road at Buffalo. Give me Buffalo.”
DEN 7, BUF 31 — Bills beat Broncos 31-7, a 24-point margin that covers -8.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Kansas City, plus 10 and a half at Denver. It got up to 11 on Wednesday. There was a little bit of buyback. We're on the Chiefs here.”
DEN 38, KC 0 — Chiefs lost to Broncos 0-38; Kansas City +10.5 does not cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“Look. Carolina plus eight. We both love the panthers on Tuesday. I would imagine we still love the panthers. The lines move from eight and a half to eight. We cannot quit the panthers right now, Simon, to remind people of the stakes.”
ATL 38, CAR 44 — Panthers beat Falcons 44-38 (OT), covering Carolina +8 with an outright win (ESPN scoreboard).
“Look. Carolina plus eight. We both love the panthers on Tuesday.”
ATL 38, CAR 44 — Panthers beat Falcons 44-38 (OT), covering Carolina +8 with an outright win (ESPN scoreboard).
“at this week. Would they consider going back to him? Is he gonna practice? You know, I wanna see how that goes before we got deep into this game. Yeah. No bet for me yet. Yeah. No bet. Cincy and Pittsburgh. This one is is, you know, racked with all sorts of circumstances. Right? We've been Cincy on Tuesday night when it was two and a half. It's moved in the opposite direction. So people are buying into the idea that what you said on Sunday night, could this be a get right game for Russell Wilson? Do you back Mike Tomlin in the rah rah spot where he's twenty two and sixteen straight up as an underdog versus a divisional opponent, twenty six ten and two against the spread as an underdog against a divisional opponent. We'll know something at this point. You know, the the NFL is like the WWE. Right? They have set this up, so it's all TV drama. The Steelers will know their circumstances. They'll know if they've got a shot to win the division or if they're gonna move down. They do have some motivation. They could still move down further in the playoff seedings if they lose this game. So I don't think they're gonna come out and rest starters even if the Ravens win the game. That's fair. To me, that would be a mistake. I I think they should, but, obviously, I'm I'm a degenerate gambler, and I have money invested already in the Bengals, and I love the Bengals.”
PIT 17, CIN 19 — Bengals beat Steelers 19-17, only a 2-point margin, which falls short of the -2.5 line; does not cover (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm going with a road favorite, the Seattle Seahawks minus three against the Los Angeles Rams.”
LAR 25, SEA 30 — Seahawks beat Rams 30-25, a 5-point margin that covers -3 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Denver broncos visiting the Cincinnati Bengals. Pro football's two superpowers renew their classic rival. I can't quit this one. It was like another one that was in consideration for big balls. It's another one sort of that I gifted myself on Christmas day when it moved to three and a half. I took it at three and a half. It's since moved back down to three. What are your thoughts here?”
CIN 30, DEN 24 — Bengals beat Broncos 30-24 in overtime; Denver's -6 margin fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I did get Carolina at plus eight and a half against Tampa Bay, and it's now at eight. This was my exact decision.”
TB 48, CAR 14 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 48-14; Carolina's -34 margin fails to cover +8.5 (ESPN box score).
“Detroit got down to three yesterday. I bettered at three. I'm assuming you bettered at three.”
DET 40, SF 34 — Lions beat 49ers 40-34; Detroit's +6 margin covers -3 (ESPN box score).
“I did bet the packers money line on Christmas day. They were still slight dogs at the time.”
MIN 27, GB 25 — Vikings beat Packers 27-25; Green Bay's moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“We're going with Carolina as an eight, eight and a half point dog, and Atlanta, all NFC South boosted parlay.”
Both legs lost: Panthers fell 14-48 to the Buccaneers, and the Falcons fell 24-30 in overtime to the Commanders (ESPN box scores).
“I'm pissed the numbers moved down so much. I was really hoping it was four and a half for Simon Says, but I still like the four just because I see the same thing last week. I thought Washington was gonna get down to three against Philly. I think the same thing with Atlanta. Think Atlanta's gonna get down to three, three and a half in this matchup. So grab the four while you can and get that key number.”
WSH 30, ATL 24 — Commanders beat Falcons 30-24 in overtime; Atlanta's -6 margin fails to cover +4 (ESPN box score).
“I'm grabbing Cowboys right now at seven and a half.”
PHI 41, DAL 7 — Eagles beat Cowboys 41-7; Dallas's -34 margin fails to cover +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“we bet Kansas City on Sunday night, Monday morning at plus two and a half.”
KC 27, HOU 19 — Chiefs beat Texans 27-19; Kansas City's +8 margin covers the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Texans at three and a half. We are very much hoping for the middle.”
KC 27, HOU 19 — Chiefs beat Texans 27-19; Houston's -8 margin fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“than Tommy John having the support to give us to bet the New York Jets as three three and a half point underdogs at home against the Los Angeles Rams. We like this a lot on Tuesday when it was three and a half. We both bet it there. It has moved to three.”
LAR 19, NYJ 9 — Rams beat Jets 19-9; New York's -10 margin fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm on the the commanders at three and a half,”
WSH 36, PHI 33 — Commanders beat Eagles 36-33 in overtime on Jayden Daniels' game-winning touchdown; Washington's outright win covers +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Minnesota at Seattle. This game's at three. It was at three and a half. I liked it a lot at three and a half. I bet it at three and a half.”
MIN 27, SEA 24 — Vikings beat Seahawks 27-24; Seattle's -3 margin covers +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Tampa Bay at Dallas. Dallas is four. We both liked it at four. It's trending towards three and a half. Money is coming in on our side.”
DAL 26, TB 24 — Cowboys beat Buccaneers 26-24; Dallas's +2 margin fails to cover -4 (ESPN box score).
“Do it. It's in. Dallas, New York Jets, Seattle Seahawks, Washington Commanders, Carolina Panthers. That is our money line. Underdog, Ron Robin, give me your biggest bets right now.”
Round robin busts: Cowboys ML won (26-24 TB), Jets ML lost (9-19 LAR), Seahawks ML lost (24-27 MIN), Commanders ML won (36-33 OT PHI), Panthers ML won (36-30 OT ARI) — the Jets and Seahawks legs lose the round robin (ESPN box scores).
“So, yeah, if we have the three, we're gonna take the three. We're gonna go with the go with the broncos.”
DEN 27, LAC 34 — Chargers beat Broncos 34-27 on Dec 19, 2024; Denver +3 loses by 7, busts the cover (ESPN box score).
“I have not been able to check bet three six five. Let me see if I can get an update here. They're probably plus one right now for the Chiefs. That's what think most American books are out right now. Okay. So yeah. Plus one plus one and a half Chiefs. Yep. Yep. You're exactly right. So it's coming down off of that news. I bettered at two and a half yesterday.”
HOU 19, KC 27 — Chiefs beat Texans 27-19 on Dec 21, 2024; Kansas City +2.5 wins outright and covers (ESPN box score).
“Millman the middler. That's what they call me. Pittsburgh at Baltimore. Baltimore's a six point favorite. This number's come down. Neither of us were scared off by the Steelers' loss to the Eagles on Sunday to not bet them here. I actually waited until Monday afternoon to get the six and a half as soon as I saw Tomlin say he was optimistic about TJ Watt.”
PIT 17, BAL 34 — Ravens beat Steelers 34-17 on Dec 21, 2024; Pittsburgh +6.5 loses by 17, busts the cover (ESPN box score).
“I bet it at three and a half this morning on Seattle.”
MIN 27, SEA 24 — Vikings beat Seahawks 27-24 on Dec 22, 2024; Seattle +3.5 loses by only 3, covers (ESPN box score).
“Don't we just take the three right now with Denver? Yes.”
DEN 27, LAC 34 — Chargers beat Broncos 34-27 on Dec 19, 2024; Denver +3 loses by 7, busts the cover (ESPN box score).
“Chiefs are plus two and a half right now against the Texans. By the way, it's moved down from three and a half when we started the show. So that's the book saying as Carson wants in their mind. Yep. But we just talked about that. Their X rays came back negative. Grab the two and a half right now. It's another position we could take out if we want to. But even if it's Carson Wentz,”
HOU 19, KC 27 — Chiefs beat Texans 27-19 on Dec 21, 2024; Kansas City +2.5 wins outright and covers (ESPN box score).
“I pulled the trigger. I bet the Panthers at two and a half.”
DAL 30, CAR 14 — Cowboys beat Panthers 30-14 on Dec 15, 2024; Carolina -2.5 loses outright, busts the cover (ESPN box score).
“We're going with the Indianapolis colts plus four”
IND 13, DEN 31 — Broncos beat Colts 31-13 on Dec 15, 2024; Indianapolis +4 loses by 18, busts the cover (ESPN box score).
“alright. Good. Then I feel better about putting the lions in at two and a half. You've kinda convinced me.”
BUF 48, DET 42 — Bills beat Lions 48-42 on Dec 15, 2024; Detroit -2.5 loses outright, busts the cover (ESPN box score).
“So, you know, you know, like you, I probably put, what, a $100 on the packers at minus 2 and a half, $200.”
GB 30, SEA 13 — Packers beat Seahawks 30-13 on Dec 15, 2024; Green Bay -2.5 wins outright and covers (ESPN box score).
“Simon and I have a money line underdog round robin. Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts. Simon, correct me if I'm wrong in any of these. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins.”
CLE 7-KC 21; IND 13-DEN 31; TB 40-LAC 17; PIT 13-PHI 27; MIA 12-HOU 20 — Week 15 ML round robin busts: Browns lost 7-21 at Chiefs; Colts lost 13-31 at Broncos; Buccaneers won 40-17 at Chargers; Steelers lost 13-27 at Eagles; Dolphins lost 12-20 at Texans (ESPN box scores). Only 1 of 5 legs won.
“Two more games that are interesting to me. You ready? Dallas plus five and a half, at home, I think it's on Monday night, versus the Bengals. I agree with you. At first glance, it's like, yeah. This this Bengals defense, who can they stop? The answer might be Cooper Rush. Yeah. But It's the right number. Like, I think it's inflated. It's probably inflated by It is. At least a point and a half. I I just love that your eyes immediately went to that game. Yeah. It's it's a giant home dog against a defense. I can't stop anyone. I agree. Take take the six. This is definitely gonna come down. Is it at six? Are you seeing six? Yeah. I'm I'm about three six five. It's it's at six. Wow.”
CIN 27, DAL 20 — Bengals beat Cowboys 27-20; Cowboys +6 busts, losing outright by 7 (ESPN box score).
“Detroit minus 10 as you just said. Dude,”
DET 23, CHI 20 — Lions beat Bears 23-20 on Thanksgiving; Detroit won by only 3, busting the -10 spread (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“I just have to play this number and take this plus four with this Giants team.”
DAL 27, NYG 20 — Cowboys beat Giants 27-20 on Thanksgiving; New York lost outright by 7, busting the +4 spread (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“is gonna be the New York Jets plus two and a half”
SEA 26, NYJ 21 — Seahawks beat Jets 26-21; New York lost outright by 5, busting the +2.5 spread (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“Pittsburgh at Cincinnati. Numbers at two and a half. What's most surprising to me about this, Simon, is that we'd question betting Mike Tomlin as a dog on the road off of a loss. The number touched three for a minute on Monday. I bettered a three. You can see it in the app.”
PIT 44, CIN 38 — Steelers beat Bengals 44-38; Pittsburgh won outright by 6, covering the +3 spread (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“Indy at New England, really interesting game. The line opened at Colts one and a half. It moved quickly. For the record, I bettered at two and a half.”
IND 25, NE 24 — Colts beat Patriots 25-24; Indianapolis won outright by 1, covering the +2.5 spread (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“I'd rather take the Eagles money line, have them win this game outright on a late field goal.”
PHI 24, BAL 19 — Eagles beat Ravens 24-19; Philadelphia won outright, cashing the moneyline (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“This week's boosted parlay, the New York Jets and the Philadelphia Eagles.”
Parlay busts: Seahawks beat Jets 26-21 (Jets ML loses); Eagles beat Ravens 24-19 (Eagles ML wins), but the parlay requires both legs (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“this is a this is not a great spot for them. As much as I don't like Jordan Love, I feel like we gotta take the packers. Yeah. And you just talked a little bit about it. It's like, this ain't down in Miami. This is gonna be in, what, 30 degrees? Maybe I guess it's a night game. So what? 20 degrees at night in Lambeau? There's a reason they're giving you three and a half here, Chad.”
GB 30, MIA 17 — Packers beat Dolphins 30-17 on Thanksgiving, a 13-point margin that covers -3.5 (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“Pittsburgh plus two and a half at Cincinnati. Mike Tomlin, as a dog in the division, on the road. Don't overthink it. Don't overthink it.”
PIT 44, CIN 38 — Steelers beat Bengals 44-38; Pittsburgh won outright by 6, covering the +2.5 spread (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“Carolina plus six and a half at Tampa Bay. Done. Book it. Let's go.”
TB 26, CAR 23 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 26-23 in OT; Carolina lost by only 3, covering the +6.5 spread (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“we're fading the Detroit lions as seven and a half point road favorites against the Indianapolis colts. We talked about it on Tuesday. We gotta chew Between our babies. That's all this is. We've been betting the lions. We've been betting the colts. We're going with the colts.”
DET 24, IND 6 — Lions beat Colts 24-6; Indianapolis lost outright by 18, busting the +7.5 spread (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“This was a Sunday play for us. We bet the cardinals a plus one and a half.”
SEA 16, ARI 6 — Seahawks beat Cardinals 16-6; Arizona lost outright, busting the +1.5 spread (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“We talk to the lions are breaking the rules right now. We we are gonna fade, and there are divisional games coming up that's gonna be nice numbers and good matchups. And we always talk. Divisional games are just different. This ain't that. This is ad division indoor against a Colts defense that can't stop anything. I mean, what Aaron Rodgers put up 27 points last week? I mean Yeah. Come on. So not gonna not gonna overthink this one. Going with the chalk once again. Going with Joe Public. I'll take the lions on minus seven and a half.”
DET 24, IND 6 — Lions beat Colts 24-6, an 18-point margin that covers -7.5 (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“I bet the Browns at one and a half. I just couldn't Couldn't resist it.”
NO 35, CLE 14 — Saints beat Browns 35-14; Browns +1.5 failed to cover, margin -21 (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Lions at minus 13. It's in the app. I saw it moving to 13 and a half at a couple of Connecticut books and wanted to get to 13 while I could.”
DET 52, JAX 6 — Lions beat Jaguars 52-6; Lions -13 covered with a margin of +46 (ESPN box score).
“So I bet it at two and a half, Kansas City on Monday. It's been holding.”
BUF 30, KC 21 — Bills beat Chiefs 30-21; Chiefs +2.5 failed to cover, margin -9 (ESPN box score).
“book it, stealers. We might get burned. Obviously, we think we could get burned here. But It's not a 100 success rate. Nothing is a 100% success rate. It's positive EV. Like, this is what we think is gonna happen, and I'm not gonna overthink it on this. Like, I'm not gonna get crazy. We're just gonna play what we have always played. If this was Duck Hodges and the Steelers were plus three,”
PIT 18, BAL 16 — Steelers beat Ravens 18-16; Steelers covered +3 with a margin of +2 (ESPN box score).
“We're going in the foxhole with the Los Angeles Rams minus four and a half against the New England Patriots.”
NE 22, LAR 28 — Rams beat Patriots 28-22; Rams -4.5 covered with a margin of +6 (ESPN box score).
“I benefit from this myself. If you wanna bet this better to bet three six five, this week's boosted parlay, steelers plus the chiefs.”
PIT 18, BAL 16; BUF 30, KC 21 — Parlay busts: Steelers beat Ravens 18-16 so Steelers ML won, but Bills beat Chiefs 30-21 so Chiefs ML lost, sinking the 2-leg parlay (ESPN box scores).
“Are we missing it? Are we trying to catch a falling knife with the Steelers? Then you remember that they do this all the time with Doug Hodges. Right? Right. That's that's my point to you. One is, like, do we bet this number with Mason Rudolph? We have to bet this with Russell Wilson. At least he's, like, not a functioning quarterback. I don't know why it makes this one sort of Alright. Simon says it. We gotta make it Simon says. Alright. Simon says. Simon says three and a half. Go grab it. Were you not planning on doing that? No. There's another game, but they just I sent a little bit of doubt in the force in you, young one. I I need to bring you back around. This is this is the game we always bet. I've already bet it. You can look you can look in the app. I grabbed it at three and a half. Good, man. I made two bets so far. Both of them are based on conversations we had on Sunday, but I don't know. Just like”
PIT 18, BAL 16 — Steelers beat Ravens 18-16; Steelers covered +3.5 with a margin of +2 (ESPN box score).
“Two and a half. How are we not pulling the trigger on the chiefs?”
BUF 30, KC 21 — Bills beat Chiefs 30-21; Chiefs +2.5 failed to cover, margin -9 (ESPN box score).
“I bet at eight and a half. It's in the Action Network app. It's now at eight. I like the Broncos here. Like, I'm I'm not afraid of it in any way.”
KC 16, DEN 14 — Chiefs beat Broncos 16-14; Denver +8.5 covers, losing by only 2 (ESPN box score).
“San Francisco, six point road favorite at Tampa Bay. As I sort of did more and more work on on this game yesterday, I just loved it more and more. Love the niners here. It was at five and a half yesterday. I bet it at five and a half. It's in the app. I still like it at six.”
TB 20, SF 23 — 49ers beat Buccaneers 23-20; San Francisco -5.5 busts, winning by only 3 (ESPN box score).
“I just decided the Jets would decide. Like, every everything made sense to me. Even as, like, a one point favorite, I know we hate betting against the line flip, but we did it.”
ARI 31, NYJ 6 — Cardinals beat Jets 31-6; New York Jets -1 busts, losing outright by 25 (ESPN box score).
“So I grabbed Dallas at seven and a half. It's moved to seven.”
DAL 6, PHI 34 — Eagles beat Cowboys 34-6; Dallas +7.5 busts, losing by 28 (ESPN box score).
“this game is just a really great Thursday game, and we're just playing the number, but it's one that I'm happy we can't put in the contest, honestly, Chad, because I could see us taking this Bengals team, and they're just having some type of heartbreak. Right? They're just this season has not gone the way they planned even though Joe Burrow is playing at such a high level and VP level. Man, is their defense bad. Yeah. So it's interesting to me. I feel like we would definitely put this in the context. I wouldn't let us. Like, this is what's been burning us this year, this exact game. Well, look. The the the challenge here is and it's at six, I'd still bet it at six, by the way. I did bet it at six. Yeah. I bet it at six. I bet it at six.”
BAL 35, CIN 34 — Ravens beat Bengals 35-34; Cincinnati +6 covers, losing by only 1 (ESPN box score).
“We liked the idea of backing the Saints. The line popped at three and a half in a lot of places. It's now back down to three. Home division dogs last two seasons, 40% against the spread, so not a great Killing me. Yeah. Not a great spot there. But now are we in for the dead cat bounce? Is the team so thoroughly embarrassed it can rally at home against the falcons team whose record is just much, much better than its numbers? Can they do it without Chris Olave? Can they do it as a dog off a loss as a seven point favorite, by the way, since 2,003? 60% against the spread for teams in that spot. I mean, look. This to me feels like if we're going contrarian, if we're gonna fade the public, if we're gonna do everything that is the opposite of what the square thing would be, you take the saints here. No brainer. Automatic. One of our five.”
NO 20, ATL 17 — Saints beat Falcons 20-17; New Orleans +3 covers, winning outright (ESPN box score).
“Dallas cowboys, exact decision. Oh. Plus seven and a half.”
DAL 6, PHI 34 — Eagles beat Cowboys 34-6; Dallas +7.5 busts, losing by 28 (ESPN box score).
“A game I didn't bet, I just wanna get your your opinion on. Monday nighter, the Rams are minus two and a half against that Miami team. Can we grab that now? I saw that. And, like, honestly, I I know we just feel like we got away with one there, but, like Yeah. We talked that we we we two two is not good against good teams. And this Yeah. This ram's team is much you wanna give them shit for. This was a complete team win today. Like, that was that's what good teams do. They win games they shouldn't win. So there were two reasons why I didn't bring it up. One was I already saw us looking at Houston, and so I was nervous about bringing up two back to back primetime games, Sunday night, Monday night. And I was waiting on to see what happened with the end of the seahawks game. Yeah. I just wanna grab it just because I I I I think that number goes up to three, so I just wanna grab the two and a half now.”
LAR 15, MIA 23 — Dolphins beat Rams 23-15; Los Angeles Rams -2.5 busts, losing outright (ESPN box score).
“I'll take Denver in this big number. It's it's just to me, it's too big. If this was seven and a half, maybe seven, I could come around this Ravens team. The fact that it's crossed seven and a half key number, eight and a half key number, and still at nine, I'll be I'll be the Joe Public sucker. I'll take the nine.”
BAL 41, DEN 10 — Ravens beat Broncos 41-10; Denver +9 busts by a wide margin (ESPN box score).
“By this morning, I maybe had three, but I, like, didn't feel great about a lot of games. One of the games, like, I definitely started coming around to, New England plus three and a half at Tennessee.”
TEN 20, NE 17 — Titans beat Patriots 20-17 in OT; New England +3.5 covers, losing by only 3 (ESPN box score).
“Miami at Buffalo. Buffalo minus six. This was my exact decision. Yeah. Loved it on Sunday night when it was at six. Bet up to six and a half.”
BUF 30, MIA 27 — Bills beat Dolphins 30-27; Buffalo -6 busts, winning by only 3 (ESPN box score).
“Detroit at Green Bay, Green Bay three and a half. This was Simon Says. I will say this is the game I've bet the most on this week. I've enjoyed getting the money down at three and a half.”
GB 14, DET 24 — Lions beat Packers 24-14; Green Bay -3.5 busts, losing outright (ESPN box score).
“against the spread the past five seasons, that's great since we've already bet the rams at plus one and a half.”
LAR 26, SEA 20 — Rams beat Seahawks 26-20 in OT; Los Angeles Rams +1.5 covers, winning outright (ESPN box score).
“I just have no reason not to bet the Bills here. I I will never forget. We had a cover where, basically, the the Bills outgained Miami by, like, 300 yards in Miami. I mean, you still covered that Miami bet. So I'm shocked they didn't win that game as well, but this is we had this one circled. I didn't care if the professional are coming on Miami and that they were gonna try to bully us again this week. There is no way this isn't one of our five. Like, I love this favorite. I bet this favorite. I will have this in a ton of teasers. I am happy to lose money on this type of bet just because Josh Allen has been so good to me in these type of spots in this exact kind of game where it's his team versus a bad team that's I get it. They're desperate. This is for their season. Josh Allen coming off a huge road win. You expect them to have a letdown game. I don't think so. I think they view this as a a divisional game with a team they do not like. And, again, they know if they win this, they basically close out their division for the most part midway through the season. I mean, they're about to close out their division on whatever it is, November 3, November 7, which has just gotta be the greatest feeling ever as a fan. So, yeah, I I love this for the Bills. It's a statement game. It's a great number right now, especially there's a couple of books showing six still. I mean, I love that.”
BUF 30, MIA 27 — Bills beat the Dolphins 30-27; Buffalo won by only 3, failing to cover -6 (ESPN box score).
“Tennessee and Detroit. They got down to 10 and a half. I bet it at 10 and a half. It's back at 11.”
DET 52, TEN 14 — Lions blew out the Titans 52-14, covering -10.5 easily (ESPN box score).
“India Houston, this was my exact decision. I bettered at six and a half. You bettered at six and a half. Sharp. Sharp. It was yeah. Totally sharp. I'm I'm sharp. It was my exact decision at at when it was at six. It's now down to five. There are places where it's going to four and a half. Like, I don't like it as much now given how much come down. I do still like the matchup. I know everyone is so fixated on Anthony Richardson and how bad his completion percentage is, and it is historically bad. It's terrible. But Jonathan Taylor returned to practice. Right? Yep. If we are looking back to what we talked about on Tuesday, where we have been making sort of blind bets on bad teams and the number and bad quarterbacks regardless of the Coaching skill, all that. This actually fits the framework of what we like in a big underdog. We think we're getting value on the number, but they've got their best skill player behind their most dominant unit, which is their offensive line, which is the best run blocking unit in football. And Shane Steichen, who's a really good play caller, gets his top weapon back for his best unit. So, like, I know Anthony Richardson, like, his comps are historically Josh Freeman, Derrick Anderson, Jamarcus Russell. Like, that's the accuracy comp. Still like the Colts.”
HOU 23, IND 20 — Texans beat the Colts 23-20; Indianapolis lost by 3, covering +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“I don't I don't hate the Browns at nine and a half. I did bet it at nine and a half. I didn't bet it at 10”
CLE 29, BAL 24 — Browns beat the Ravens 29-24 outright, covering +9.5 (ESPN box score).
“We both bet the bears at one and a half even with the injury to Jaden Daniels. I don't love we're betting against the line flip. 42% betting against the line flip since 2019. But Caleb Williams has been doing special things, undefeated in the second half this year against the spread. Only other person is Patrick Mahomes. How bad how bad will Washington be with Marcus Mariota? Like, you you pointed it out on Tuesday how terrible he is. They've had 12 punts this season, the fewest since 1950. They've been perfect on fourth downs and nearly 50% on third downs. All of that changes without Jaden Daniels. So to me, I'm fine betting the bears because I think we have to think about this not as a line flip, but as a new line with the bears as less than a field goal.”
WSH 18, CHI 15 — Commanders beat the Bears 18-15; Chicago lost outright, failing to cover -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“The boosted parlay, no surprise if you've been listening, Dallas cowboys, Indianapolis colts, Go to those game pages at bet three six five to find the boosted power leg.”
Parlay busts: Cowboys lost 24-30 to the 49ers (ESPN box score), and Colts lost 20-23 to the Texans (ESPN box score).
“Simon, we're gonna bet the Lions minus 11. Really? You're gonna guarantee this will be in our contest? I feel good about it right now.”
DET 52, TEN 14 — Lions blew out the Titans 52-14, covering -11 easily (ESPN box score).
“My friend, sack up because we are going with Cincinnati at Cleveland. We are taking the Cleveland Browns at plus six.”
CIN 21, CLE 14 — Bengals beat Browns 21-14; Cleveland margin -7 vs +6, busts (ESPN).
“Green Bay minus two and a half. There are a lot of books that have it at the rate. Houston but we're talking about bet three six five. It's at 2 and a half.”
GB 24, HOU 22 — Packers beat Texans 24-22; Green Bay margin +2 vs -2.5, busts (ESPN).
“Tampa Bay plus three and a half. This was my exact decision. On Tuesday, I love Baker Mayfield against a porous, poorly ranked secondary, twenty first in the league in pass coverage, giving up 275 passing yards per game. By the way, that's thirty first in the league. Just ahead of the Jaguars. I like Vita Vea as an obstacle for the Ravens. Me is the key. Ravens rushing game. Like, that's I think that's really important. The things that worry me are the things that look. Not not everything is a clear decision. Right? These are all gonna be 55 to 60% decisions. We acknowledge betting against Lamar Jackson makes you uncomfortable. You're not gonna be any more uncomfortable than you are betting against Patrick Mahomes, betting against Josh Allen, betting against Lamar Jackson. Like, it's just what happens. And, like, it's infuriating because of his mobility and because of his record against the NFC. And, of course, we worry about Baker doing Baker things, but this is a pro Joe split. I'm sticking with the Bucks.”
BAL 41, TB 31 — Ravens beat Buccaneers 41-31; Tampa Bay margin -10 vs +3.5, busts (ESPN).
“This week's boosted parlay, Kansas City chiefs, Detroit lions. Find the boost under either chiefs or lions game pages at bet three six five,”
Parlay cashes: Chiefs beat 49ers 28-18 (ML) and Lions beat Vikings 31-29 (ML) (ESPN).
“It's at six now. You can go grab that if you want the browns, which I do. Go get the browns plus six.”
CIN 21, CLE 14 — Bengals beat Browns 21-14; Cleveland margin -7 vs +6, busts (ESPN).
“I actually bet the under in this game. That's the first thing I did. I got it at 37 and a half, I think. I will not touch a side in this game.”
DEN 33, NO 10 — Broncos beat Saints 33-10, combined 43; under 37.5 busts (ESPN).
“we are going to tell people to do something that will require support because you and I are both in on the New England Patriots, a seven point underdogs at home against the Houston Texans. I like it for the spot. I like it for the matchup. I like it for the number. I like it for the trends. It is our big balls bet of the week.”
HOU 41, NE 21 — Texans beat Patriots 41-21; New England margin -20 fails to cover +7 (ESPN).
“Well, let's talk about Detroit. Let's talk about Detroit at Dallas. Let's talk about how this number got up to three and a half. This was my exact decision. And I do worry that I'm walking into it a little bit. It's a road favorite. It's the public side. I did bet it at three. I love it based on all the matchups and the fundamentals, especially at the line of scrimmage.”
DET 47, DAL 9 — Lions beat Cowboys 47-9; Detroit margin +38 covers -3 (ESPN).
“the boosted money line parlay is Panthers, Jets. Find the boost under either the Panthers or Jets game pages on bet three six five.”
2-team boosted moneyline parlay busts: Panthers ML lost (Falcons beat Panthers 38-20) and Jets ML lost (Bills beat Jets 23-20), per ESPN.
“So the money line round robin, that is gonna be panthers, jets, giants, broncos, Colts.”
ATL 38-CAR 20; BUF 23-NYJ 20; CIN 17-NYG 7; LAC 23-DEN 16; IND 20-TEN 17 — 5-team moneyline round robin busts: Panthers ML lost (ATL 38-CAR 20), Jets ML lost (BUF 23-NYJ 20), Giants ML lost (CIN 17-NYG 7), Broncos ML lost (LAC 23-DEN 16), Colts ML won (IND 20-TEN 17); with only 1 of 5 legs winning, every 2-leg round-robin combination loses, per ESPN.
“Give me the path plus seven.”
ATL 38, CAR 20 — Falcons beat Panthers 38-20; Carolina margin -18 fails to cover +7 (ESPN).
“Exact decision was Detroit. I'm taking the minus three. It's available widely.”
DET 47, DAL 9 — Lions beat Cowboys 47-9; Detroit margin +38 covers -3 (ESPN).
“huge gap between New England and Houston, and and Nico Collins probably is gonna be out. And we saw what happened when Nico Collins out against Buffalo. And so I do think that bodes well for us. Again, I'm not saying we're gonna put it in the contest. We did bet it. Both of us have bet it. You can see it in the app. I bet it at seven,”
HOU 41, NE 21 — Texans beat Patriots 41-21; New England margin -20 fails to cover +7 (ESPN).
“What are we doing, Chad? Gotta bet the New York Jets. Yeah. That's the only choice. And, unfortunately, we were really hoping this would be up to plus three. I don't think it's ever gonna get there now. No. Like, especially after him getting fired, I think it was gonna be just professionals on this Jets team here. Now I think a little bit of public money will come in them as well. So, love the Jets. Like, this back to back weeks, we're really gonna wait till Monday night for our picks, but I just felt like this is gonna be one of our five coming into this week. Historically, Josh Allen doesn't match up well against his Shets team. Like, defensively, they know how to kinda attack him, make him uncomfortable. Now is when he had Diggs and Gabe Davis, guys, he kinda relied on. Now You saw last week. Right? He struggled throwing the ball downfield just because he doesn't really have a rhythm or trust his receivers. I don't know what's going on, but it did not look right. Now only the city of P only people living in Buffalo or fans of Buffalo think he didn't sustain a concussion. I think any of us I've gone back and rewatched it. It's just like, oh my god. That was not a chest injury. No. Whatever whatever they're trying to spin, it's total bullshit. I think it's the NFL classic. We got a guy playing on Monday night. We we can't have him missing this prime time game. They're gonna make him he's gonna be clear. He's gonna be practicing. He's gonna play in this game. I I have no doubt we will see Josh Allen. So, yeah, this is a a nice nice spot to take the Jets in a in a would we call this a buy low? I mean, this, like, this to me, this is like everything's kinda going wrong right now for the Jets. Everything's kinda negative. Already kinda love this spot just the matchup wise. Our only fear is Aaron Rodgers has not looked right in weeks. I mean, he's just been bad. Like, he's missing bad throws. When there's any bit of pressure, he folds up rather than alluding it. So I get people's hesitation here, but this is really about playing this number in this divisional spot. This to me is closer to a pick. We're getting about, what, a point and a half, two points of free value just because everyone's so down on this Jets team where I don't think the Bills are that much better. Like, this team has major issues and major holes, things that can be exploited, especially by this Jets team. So, yep, let's let's take, this this Jets seem to bounce back after firing their coach and take the plus two and a half, Chad. We are getting what, we at the Action Network like to call the dead cat bounce.”
BUF 23, NYJ 20 — Bills beat Jets 23-20; New York margin -3 fails to cover +2.5 (ESPN).
“Arizona, Green Bay Green Bay five point favorite. This is a funky line. Like, I'm surprised it hasn't moved one way. It did. It went up to five and a half. It came back down. But Oh, it did? I didn't even see that. Yeah. Like, I I said this on Sunday night. The eye test, the fade test, it all makes me wanna take I'm with you. The packers. Yeah. And even though, like, I don't have much value on this line either, I have to get it as good. I think it's a good number, and I I think this the book hungover a good number to get fair action on both sides pretty much. Like, you know, if you took Arizona last week and you're feeling pretty good on the flip side, Green Bay, it feels like they kinda stole one last week and that, you know, Jordan Love has looked rusty since coming back from this injury. Right? He's not really in a rhythm. You know, they also have a bunch of drama right now with who was it? Dobbs? I remember those numbers. Yeah. Yeah. Was getting upset because they weren't getting touches even though he was second on the team in the at the wide receiver position in touches, which is just it was very wide receiver like to be a diva in that sense, but I'm with you. I've actually come around on this green bag. You're right. This is like a nice spot. On the flip side, if we lose this, I'll be happy for our future market because this is like, okay. This is really Kyler truly taking that next step. Because I said it before that 49ers game. I thought he had regressed after the Rams game. Like, he was so good that you were like, okay. He's gonna keep getting better throughout the season. Did not happen. Right? And then, thankfully, he played pretty damn well against that 49ers team. Here is even more so. Like, this is what me and Chad are saying here is we don't believe in you, Kyler. This is a game you always lose, and you never cover. You always have a letdown after these big wins historically. So I'm with you. This is literally a prove it to me kinda bet here on this on this Green Bay Team. We're saying to the Arizona, it's like, okay. You guys are gonna be the sixth, seventh seed this year, maybe contend for your division. This is a game you must win, and don't think they're going to. I I do think this is a good matchup for Green Bay, especially the way they've been running the ball. This is a nice matchup defensively as well, for takeaways against Kyler. So I'm with you, Chad. It took me a minute to come around. I wasn't there Sunday night, but now here on Tuesday. I'm with you. I like this Green Bay. This might be one of our only favorites we agree on, but I think we both like this side. Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose, Simon, and that's what we have right now. The it's interesting you say that about Kyler. We don't we don't love Green Bay's defense necessarily as a unit. No. But we have to give them credit for their ability to ballhawk. Right? And they picked up a couple more interceptions against the rams on Sunday. And this is a situation Kyler has the tendency to just backflip toss it. He will try to make it a fifty fifty ball. He will just let it loose. He does that. We all we've talked about the packers and their proclivity. It's SAT season. Proclivity for interceptions this year, with Jeff Halfley, new defensive coordinator. They've already got more picks than they had all of last year. That was true two weeks ago. And so I like the opportunity against Kyler to make some mistakes on the road, a come down spot for sure. But, also, this to me is about the cardinals defense. And, like, Brock Purdy was definitely having his way against that defense. This is not a good pass rush defense. This is not a good pass coverage defense. I think this is a game now. His third game back, Jordan Love gets a little more comfortable. He's back at home. They cannot do the same things that the Vikings did against the packers in his first game where they could confuse him. And don't forget in the second half of that game, he got much better. He brought that team back. So I like to spot for the packers. I don't like to spot for the cardinals, and I find some matchup opportunities”
GB 34, ARI 13 — Packers beat Cardinals 34-13; Green Bay margin +21 covers -5 (ESPN).
“I'm very tempted by the Patriots plus seven just because bet it. I'm I'm already yeah. When we when you guys mentioned that, I I I I text a runner. I was like, go just go bet this for me.”
HOU 41, NE 21 — Texans beat Patriots 41-21; New England margin -20 fails to cover +7 (ESPN).
“Give me the Arizona cardinals at seven and a half.”
ARI 24, SF 23 — Cardinals beat 49ers 24-23; Arizona margin +1 covers +7.5 (ESPN).
“I was all over New Orleans from the beginning. I bet it at five and a half. It got down it got down to five.”
KC 26, NO 13 — Chiefs beat Saints 26-13; Saints margin -13 fails to cover +5.5 (ESPN).
“I've been grabbing anywhere any book that has the one and a half, I've been grabbing it when I can. Yeah. I actually bet it while we were talking.”
HOU 23, BUF 20 — Texans beat Bills 23-20; Houston margin +3 covers +1.5 (ESPN).
“I don't So know. Great. Then I'm taking the packers at three.”
GB 24, LAR 19 — Packers beat Rams 24-19; Green Bay -3 covers by 2.
“We are on the Ravens tonight minus two and a half.”
BAL 35, BUF 10 — Ravens routed Bills 35-10; Baltimore -2.5 covers by a wide margin.
“Carolina plus five against the bears. Gotta. Got it. Gotta.”
CHI 36, CAR 10 — Bears routed Panthers 36-10; Carolina +5 busts by a wide margin.
“my exact decision this week is a game you just referred to, the Chicago bears. I think we'll get them at two and a half in the contest. They're now at three.”
CHI 24, LAR 18 — Bears beat Rams 24-18; Chicago -2.5 covers by 3.5.
“I think the Steelers defense is mitigated by the Colts topped rank top ranked pass blocking o line. The Steelers have a terrible offense. I don't think it has an advantage over the Colts middling defense. Yeah. This is one of the bigger luck ranking games this week with Indy as the unlucky team. It's in the contest at one and a half.”
IND 27, PIT 24 — Colts beat Steelers 27-24; Indianapolis +1.5 covers as an outright winner.
“it's why we are so comfortable going with the depleted, rundown Los Angeles chargers plus seven and a half as home underdogs against the Kansas City chiefs.”
KC 17, LAC 10 — Chiefs beat Chargers 17-10; Los Angeles +7.5 covers, losing by only 7.
“Our week four boosted underdog money line parlay, we are going with the Indianapolis Colts and the Tampa Bay buccaneers.”
IND 27-24 PIT; TB 33-16 PHI — Parlay cashes: Colts beat Steelers 27-24 (Colts ML wins) and Buccaneers beat Eagles 33-16 (Buccaneers ML wins); both legs won.
“to claim your prize. Let's get to it. One of the games we talked about on Sunday. Normally, we don't dig into a Thursday night game, but it's Tuesday, Thursday night. Dallas at the New York Giants. Current line is four and a half. You said right away, bet this, and it was at five and a half. You were worried it was gonna go up. I know wise guys have this number around six or seven. It's actually come down. Brandon Anderson also highlighted this in the hot read segment on the overnight pod on Sunday he does with Evan Abrams. I love that segment. I bet it at four and a half.”
DAL 20, NYG 15 — Cowboys beat Giants 20-15 on Thursday Night Football; Dallas -4.5 covers by 0.5.
“LA Rams at Chicago. Look. This opened at one. I loved it at one. I did bet it at two and a half because, like, as soon as our show is over on Sunday night, sometimes I just shook the computer down and go downstairs and then cry into a pillow.”
CHI 24, LAR 18 — Bears beat Rams 24-18; Chicago -2.5 covers by 3.5.
“Not only is it a great match for the colts, but this is just like last week, right, where, you know, there was a couple of sides we were just like, you gotta fade the public here. And if you had done if you've done just been fading the public blindly this year, you were up a ton of money. This falls right into that category of, you know, in the action app right now, 90% of the bets, 85% of the money is on Pittsburgh. And it's just like, how stupid can you be? Like, to to go have you on a road road favorite here in Pittsburgh and Tomlin, it's like, this is always when they have those letdown games. So I'm gonna take the plus two like you just said. It looks like it's gonna move back down to one and a half. We talked about time how key of a number plus two is, so I'm gonna grab it now before it does move. Yeah. Definitely grab the two. I grabbed it right before we came on the air, actually.”
IND 27, PIT 24 — Colts beat Steelers 27-24; Indianapolis +2 covers as an outright winner.
“Arizona is a three and a half point home favorite against Washington. This this line was five and a half before the game last night. It's moved two points. I so wanna take the cardinals.”
WSH 42, ARI 14 — Commanders routed Cardinals 42-14; Arizona -3.5 busts by a wide margin.
“Give me the Chargers plus eight. Like, almost feels like you gotta grab that now because I don't want it to go back down.”
KC 17, LAC 10 — Chiefs beat Chargers 17-10; Los Angeles +8 covers, losing by only 7.
“I'm gonna give you a chalk bet that I made right away before you even came on the air. K. Tell me. Cowboys, minus five and a half, Thursday night football in the Meadowlands.”
DAL 20-15 NYG — Cowboys beat Giants 20-15; Cowboys margin +5 fails to cover -5.5 (ESPN Week 4 scoreboard).
“Green Bay is a very short home favorite against Minnesota. Yeah. Honestly, I bet it just because I bet it before the games today just in case Jordan Love did come back. That's what I'm thinking. Yeah. So I I like that too for early bet. Yeah. Even though it is a that is tough throwing Jordan Love in against his Vikings defense because that they're gonna they're gonna be bringing the heat on his ass. There's no doubt they're gonna make him test that leg. But I think you're right. I'm gonna grab it now just because this is a key number at two. Look at that. You think I'm right. I got two games that I'm looking at, and you're like, oh, yeah. You know what? You're right. You know what I like, though? Just betting these ugly home favorites.”
MIN 31-29 GB — Vikings beat Packers 31-29; Packers margin -2 fails to cover -2 (ESPN Week 4 scoreboard).
“Then I think I will go with the Miami dolphins. Oh, wow. I'm I'm putting it in the script. It's official. I am taking the Miami dolphins.”
SEA 24-3 MIA — Seahawks beat Dolphins 24-3; Dolphins lose outright, moneyline busts (ESPN Week 3 scoreboard).
“They are the Dallas cowboys. We loved it on Sunday at six. We both bet it. It's moved to six and a half almost immediately.”
DAL 19, NO 44 — Saints beat Cowboys 44-19; Cowboys -6 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“We are going with the Green Bay packers. Wow. Green Bay packers. I think this is what Matt Mitchell called when we started talking about it on Tuesday, podcast malpractice. But look. And, like, the number's down to two and a half, so we obviously don't have the best of the number.”
GB 16, IND 10 — Packers beat Colts 16-10; Packers +2.5 spread covers (ESPN box score).
“We bet it at six. We're gonna take the Bengals. No reason to talk about it.”
KC 26, CIN 25 — Chiefs beat Bengals 26-25; Bengals +6 spread covers (ESPN box score).
“This week will be Denver I can't believe I'm saying this. Podcast Malpractice and Green Bay. Denver and Green Bay. What we should do is gonna be our boosted parlay.”
Steelers beat Broncos 13-6, so the Denver Broncos ML leg loses; Packers beat Colts 16-10, so the Green Bay Packers ML leg wins. Both legs must win, so the parlay busts (ESPN box scores).
“We like the ravens. You said raiders, and I'm like, people were not betting the raiders in our survivor pool. We're taking the ravens.”
LV 26, BAL 23 — Raiders beat Ravens 26-23; Ravens moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Dallas is minus six Love it. Right now. I I say we grab it. I I as soon as I saw that number come out, it's Dallas at home against a bad team. Like, we always we always play Dallas on the spot.”
DAL 19, NO 44 — Saints beat Cowboys 44-19; Cowboys -6 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Carolina at New Orleans, this number is at four. This was my exact decision.”
NO 47, CAR 10 — Saints beat Panthers 47-10; Panthers +4 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm going with the Tennessee Titans plus one.”
CHI 24, TEN 17 — Bears beat Titans 24-17; Titans +1 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Bet the ravens plus three. Biddy up.”
20-27 — Chiefs beat Ravens 27-20 on Sep 5, 2024; Baltimore's -7 margin misses the +3 line (ESPN box score).
“Trevor Lawrence, lead the league in passing at 22 to one.”
Trevor Lawrence played only 10 games due to injury; Joe Burrow led the NFL in passing yards in 2024 with 4,918 (ESPN season stats). (Joe Burrow 4,918 pass yds)
“I still like the titans at four and a half. I'm not buying out. I'm not afraid.”
17-24 — Bears beat Titans 24-17 on Sep 8, 2024; Tennessee's -7 margin misses the +4.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I like the Jets. I like them at four and a half.”
19-32 — 49ers beat Jets 32-19 on Sep 9, 2024; New York's -13 margin misses the +4.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Chiefs, niners, 17 to one.”
The 49ers went 8-9 and missed the playoffs, so Super Bowl LIX (Eagles 40, Chiefs 22) never featured the 49ers (ESPN standings; NFL playoffs results).
“Chiefs eagles, 28 to one.”
40-22 — Super Bowl LIX was exactly Chiefs vs. Eagles, with the Eagles winning 40-22 on Feb 9, 2025 (ESPN).
“Chiefs lions, 28 to one.”
The Lions went 15-2 but lost in the Divisional round to Washington 45-31, so a Chiefs-Lions Super Bowl never happened (NFL playoffs results).
“Bengals lions, 50 to one.”
The Bengals went 9-8 and missed the playoffs, and the Lions lost in the Divisional round, so a Bengals-Lions Super Bowl never happened (ESPN standings; NFL playoffs results).
“Bengals eagles, 60 to one.”
The Bengals went 9-8 and missed the playoffs, so a Bengals-Eagles Super Bowl matchup did not occur (ESPN standings).
“Bengals niners, 33 to one.”
Neither the Bengals (9-8) nor the 49ers (8-9) made the 2024 playoffs, so this matchup did not happen (ESPN standings).
“Ravens lions, 41 to one.”
Both the Ravens and Lions lost in the Divisional round of the 2024-25 playoffs, so a Ravens-Lions Super Bowl never happened (NFL playoffs results).
“Ravens eagles, 41 to one.”
The Ravens lost in the Divisional round to Buffalo 27-25, so the Ravens-Eagles Super Bowl matchup did not occur (NFL playoffs results).
“Ravens niners, 25 to one.”
The 49ers missed the playoffs (8-9) and the Ravens lost in the Divisional round, so this matchup did not happen (ESPN standings; NFL playoffs results).
“The Minnesota Vikings, of the two bets I made this weekend that you did not know about already, that I was most excited about, the Vikings have been one that I kept looking at trying to find. You mentioned the under six and a half. I felt like I wasn't getting enough value even at minus one thirty on the under six and a half. It's plus one thirty. Plus one thirty. I mean I mean, plus one thirty? I actually bet the under four and a half at, like I forgot what the number was. Plus three Plus 200 something. Right? Yeah. It was plus three something, I think. And”
Vikings finished the 2024 season 14-3, far over the 4.5 win total (bet was the under) (ESPN standings). (Minnesota Vikings 2024: 14-3)
“this is one I think you're gonna like. Minnesota Vikings, worst record in the league, 15 to one.”
The Vikings went 14-3, one of the NFL's best records, not the worst; the Patriots, Giants, Browns, and Titans all finished 3-14 or 4-13 (ESPN standings).
“to me, AFC North plus two twenty five most combined wins for a division.”
The AFC North combined for 34 wins (Ravens 12, Steelers 10, Bengals 9, Browns 3); the NFC North led all divisions with 45 combined wins (Lions 15, Vikings 14, Packers 11, Bears 5) (ESPN standings).
“The one team we didn't talk about, the colts to win the AFC South. South. I just blanked. Plus three forty right now, which I love. I like it better than the jags. I like it better than the Texans.”
The Colts went 8-9 and did not win the AFC South; the Texans took it at 10-7 (ESPN standings).
“Of course, we are taking the Ravens in week one against the Chiefs as three point underdogs. That's an Simon, there's no question on that. No.”
27-20 — Chiefs beat Ravens 27-20 in the 2024 NFL season opener (ESPN); Ravens lost outright by 7, failing to cover as +3 underdogs.
“and the lions are at plus one fifty. Are you fucking kidding me? Yeah. Like, of course, we're gonna bet the lions at plus one fifty. They should be closer to plus 100, minus one ten, like you said.”
Lions 15-2 (NFC North champions) — The Lions went 15-2 and won the NFC North division (ESPN final 2024 standings).
“We're buying at the lowest part of the market for the Carolina panthers across multiple markets, especially when it comes to season win totals of four and a half and to win the division at 11 to one.”
Buccaneers 10-7, Panthers 5-12 — The Buccaneers went 10-7 and won the NFC South; the Panthers finished 5-12, tied for last (ESPN final 2024 standings).
“it's not the Super Bowl odds, and it's not necessarily [30:55] their season win total. It's the plus three ten. I think that's where the most value is. And if you're gonna invest your money now and have to wait until the end of the season for a payout, I'd rather take a little bit more of a flyer on the plus three ten.”
Texans 10-7, Colts 8-9 — The Texans went 10-7 and won the AFC South; the Colts finished 8-9 in second place (ESPN final 2024 standings).
“Give me the Indianapolis Colts plus one and a half home underdog.”
29-27 — Texans beat Colts 29-27 in Week 1 (ESPN); Colts lost outright, missing the +1.5 cover.
“Over six and a half d lineman edge rushers in the first round plus 200.”
Exactly six defensive linemen/edge rushers were taken in round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft (Laiatu Latu 15, Byron Murphy II 16, Dallas Turner 17, Jared Verse 19, Chop Robinson 21, Darius Robinson 27), short of the over 6.5 line. (6 DL/EDGE taken in round 1 (picks 15, 16, 17, 19, 21, 27))
“I bet the Bengals are 15 to one to win the Super Bowl.”
The Cincinnati Bengals finished 9-8 in 2024 and missed the playoffs; the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl LIX. The Bengals futures bet lost. (Bengals 9-8 (2024), did not make playoffs)
“yeah. And I I I bet you by September, this is probably down to 12 to one. Well, time to buy it now then. It's not gonna get it's not gonna get, like, longer. You know? They're not gonna go from 15 to one to 21. So if you like it, you might as well buy it now. In fact, I'm going to today. It's exactly what I'm gonna do. Last week, we talked a little bit about it. I feel like we're doing exactly what I just said, which is all of a sudden, we've convinced ourselves it's the Cincinnati Bengals are the Jayden Daniels of the twenty twenty four NFL season, and we're seeing something right now nobody else is seeing.”
The Cincinnati Bengals went 9-8 in the 2024 NFL season, missed the playoffs, and did not reach the Super Bowl; the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Kansas City Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX (ESPN).
“It's gonna be the Chiefs plus two for the record. We both bet this at two and a half.”
25-22 — Chiefs beat the 49ers 25-22 in OT; margin of victory (+3) exceeds the +2.5 line, so Chiefs +2.5 covers.
“Under 47 and a half. We both bet Deebo Samuel over his receiving yards at 58 and a half.”
25-22 — Combined score was 47 (Chiefs 25, 49ers 22), under the 47.5 total.
“We both bet Deebo Samuel over his receiving yards at 58 and a half. It's moving up.”
Deebo Samuel had 33 receiving yards on 3 catches, under the 58.5-yard line. (Deebo Samuel: 33 receiving yards)
“We both bet Christian McCaffrey over three and a half rush yards on his first attempt.”
McCaffrey's first carry of the game gained 6 yards (left guard to SF 31), clearing the 3.5-yard line. (C. McCaffrey first carry: 6 yards)
“Chiefs minus two and a half at about plus one thirty five, which I thought was really fun. And and chances are that sort of these games will land at three or more. So if you like one side, then maybe you wanna take that side as a favorite of less than three, of three or of at less than three. And then I did sprinkle based on our conversation on Tuesday.”
25-22 — Chiefs beat the 49ers 25-22 in OT; a 3-point margin clears the -2.5 line.
“A little bit of Rashee Rice MVP at 60 to one, Travis Kelce, 17 to one.”
Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl LVIII MVP, not Rashee Rice.
“A little bit of Rashee Rice MVP at 60 to one, Travis Kelce, 17 to one.”
Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl LVIII MVP, not Travis Kelce.
“47 and a half is the total. Sunday night, you mentioned you liked the under. I like the under as well. I played the under.”
25-22 — Combined score was 47 (Chiefs 25, 49ers 22), under the 47.5 total.
“Simon, I know you got the three. I was not fast enough. I got the two and a half betting on the chiefs.”
25-22 — Chiefs beat the 49ers 25-22 in OT; margin of victory (+3) exceeds the +2.5 line, so Chiefs +2.5 covers.
“He took the Ravens minus two and a half in the first half. And I know you always call that the cowards play, but we like to lean on that sometimes. Sometimes. I actually love that play. I bet it at two and a half because it takes sort of the Mahomes endgame backdoor factor out of the equation.”
KC 17-7 BAL (halftime) — Chiefs led Ravens 17-7 at halftime of the AFC Championship (ESPN box score); Ravens 1st-half margin -10 busts the -2.5 first-half spread.
“So until Simon had said the sharps are with me, I was a little bit antsy. Now I'm feeling I'll be honest, I literally on this podcast, I bet it at seven and a half, so I bet it again. Detroit's been absolutely torched on defense, but I don't trust Purdy. I won't trust Purdy. It's not I just I I feel like he's a mediocre quarterback and amazing system. And the fact that Debo is banged up and not himself, I just don't trust it. I'll take the points, especially I think I think I'm with Sam as well. I think it's gonna get to eight. Especially, like, that day, you're gonna get a lot of niner action, my opinion. Alright. Alright. Two more for you guys. Yeah.”
SF 34-31 DET — Detroit Lions lost 34-31 to San Francisco in the NFC Championship, a 3-point margin; Lions +7.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I already bet the niners at six and a half. Have not done anything else.”
SF 34-31 DET — San Francisco 49ers beat Detroit Lions 34-31 in the NFC Championship, a 3-point margin; 49ers -6.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“Houston Texans plus nine and a half against the Baltimore Ravens because this is what we're doing. There's no coming back from it.”
BAL 34-10 HOU — Baltimore Ravens beat Houston Texans 34-10 in the AFC Divisional Round; Texans +9.5 busts by a 24-point margin (ESPN box score).
“Green Bay at San Francisco. San Francisco is a nine and a half point favorite. This was my exec decision. I still love it. I love it even more because the majority of the bets, meaning the squares, are coming in on the packers. They are a public dog. I'm so thrilled about this. Just the value on this team is inflated. This team should be a eleven, twelve point underdog in this spot. We have seen this too many times, too many times with a team coming in hot and then getting demolished. They are one of the youngest teams in the league. They're just happy to be here. This is all a surprise to them. In November, they were on the outside looking in. They needed a run-in the last two months of the year just to get to this spot. The niners had the best shot to win the Super Bowl they have had during Kyle Shanahan's reign. There is no dominant team in the AFC. Right? So to me, remember, the packers lost to the giants second half of the season, lost to the steelers second half of the season, gave up 30 points to the Panthers second half of the season. I I'm betting the Niners. I might even be tempted, Simon, to take some of the alt lines. Niners minus 21 plus three thirty five minus 24 plus four eighty six.”
SF 24-21 GB — San Francisco 49ers beat Green Bay Packers 24-21 in the NFC Divisional Round, a 3-point margin; 49ers -9.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“A reminder, we're on the Bills here minus two and a half.”
KC 27-24 BUF — Kansas City Chiefs beat Buffalo Bills 27-24 in the AFC Divisional Round; Bills lost outright, so -2.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“I made Buffalo my exact decision as a 10 favorite. You did. And I'm sticking by it. I'm not afraid of it. I don't like Mason Rudolph on road. I don't like Mason Rudolph in the cold.”
31-17 — Bills beat Steelers 31-17, winning by 14 and covering -10 (ESPN).
“We're making the Texans plus two and a half, our foxhole.”
14-45 — Texans beat Browns 45-14; Texans won by 31, covering +2.5 (ESPN).
“Denizen of the Paris of Western New York that I needed before I bet Buffalo minus 10 is my exact decision.”
31-17 — Bills beat Steelers 31-17, winning by 14 and covering -10 (ESPN).
“snow. It's gonna be fun. Green Bay at Dallas. Look. We were talking about this game on Sunday night. It was seven and a half. We didn't understand the move. We talked about it on Tuesday. It was seven and a half. We didn't understand why it hadn't come down. I'll tell you right now. This morning at seven and a half, I bit the bullet. I started to see some of the Jews moving. I figured, like, it would finally move to seven. I couldn't find any reason not to bet Green Bay in this game.”
32-48 — Packers beat Cowboys 48-32, winning outright and covering +7.5 (ESPN).
“Let's be patient. Moneyline, underdog, round robin. I know we want the rams. Let's let's just do three, though, because it's Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Well, we're not we can't do. I was gonna say, I I can't force in five. Think we have five we like. I was I was gonna limit honestly, I was gonna limit it to two, and let's see if we can force in a third to me. You gotta do Rams. Gotta do your Rams. You gotta do your Houston. Okay. Interesting. Because I was gonna say I was I actually wasn't gonna put Green Bay in there. I was gonna do Rams, Houston, and, Tampa. Yeah. That's fair. So let's do Rams, Houston, and Tampa. The one the reason I wanna put Houston is because we already talked about that stat. There a rookie has never beat the number one defense in the playoffs, and I just feel like CJ is the ultimate unicorn. Like, everything he's done this year has been so rare.”
Round robin busts: Rams ML lost (Lions beat Rams 24-23) while Texans ML (45-14 over Browns) and Buccaneers ML (32-9 over Eagles) both won, but the Rams leg sinks the parlay (ESPN).
“so I'll take the over right now at 36 and a half.”
31-17 — Bills beat Steelers 31-17; combined 48 points clears the over 36.5 (ESPN).
“LA Rams at the Detroit Lions, great game, great narrative. The Lions are three and a half point favorites. It opened at four. We talked about it on Sunday. As it was at four, it was moving to three and a half. We all slammed it at three and a half. It's kinda just settled there.”
24-23 — Lions beat Rams 24-23; Rams lost by 1 but covered +3.5 (ESPN).
“I'm I've already bet this. I'm grabbing it now. You have to grab the three and a half just in case it does disappear over three. Yeah. By the way, I was betting the three and a half while you were talking, and Charlie Dosturko, who's producing the show for us this very second, also bet the three and a half because I saw the alert for him tracking it in the app as we as we were talking. This is why I listen to the show. Go bet the Rams plus three and a half.”
DET 24, LAR 23 — Lions beat Rams 24-23 in the Wild Card round; Los Angeles lost by 1, covering the +3.5 spread (ESPN Wild Card scoreboard).
“everything we like is everything that everybody else likes. Tampa Bay and Carolina. Carolina is now four and a half point dog. We liked it at five and a half. We're sorry we're making people pick Carolina again. I still like Carolina in this spot.”
TB 9, CAR 0 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 9-0; Carolina lost by 9, missing the +4.5 spread (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“And it's moved in the past twenty four hours. I bet Denver plus three.”
LV 27, DEN 14 — Raiders beat Broncos 27-14; Denver lost by 13, missing the +3 spread (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“The line opened three and a half. I bet the bears at three and a half. It's moved to three,”
GB 17, CHI 9 — Packers beat Bears 17-9; Chicago lost by 8, missing the +3.5 spread (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“Let's go falcons. Dirty birded, baby. We listen. A 100% have to back the falcons a plus three. You know we have to.”
NO 48, ATL 17 — Saints beat Falcons 48-17; Atlanta lost by 31, well outside the +3 spread (ESPN Week 18 scoreboard).
“I'm also comfortable with the Carolina Panthers at six and a half.”
JAX 26, CAR 0 — Jaguars shut out the Panthers 26-0; Carolina lost by 26, well outside the +6.5 spread (ESPN Week 17 scoreboard).
“I bet the rams at minus four”
LAR 30-22 NO — Rams beat the Saints 30-22; Rams -4 covers (ESPN).
“No chickening out. Steelers plus two and a half would say you.”
PIT 34-11 CIN — Steelers beat the Bengals 34-11; Steelers +2.5 covers easily (ESPN).
“Cleveland and Houston. Early plan Houston for us at two and a half. Open at one and a half. Move quickly to two and a half. Hasn't budged. As far as I know, we're still waiting on word for Stroud, which I think is why it hasn't gone to three. I think wise guys are just buying the number at less than a field goal awaiting the news. As a as a as a matchup, you pointed out the browns have real issues down the road. So I I looked this up. Their past five games on the road, they've allowed 38 points to Indy, a game they won, 24 to Seattle, a loss, 31 to Baltimore, a win, 29 to Denver, a loss, 36 to LA, a loss. They will be without Brandt Delpit, again, who's uninjured reserve, their safety. Their quarterback of the defensive backfield, their leading tackler before he went out. I don't actually think that mattered much against the bears. I do think if CJ plays, that would matter a lot against Houston. I love this pick, and I love that we're getting it two and a half. And I was gonna make it Simon Says, but you're so right. There's too much unknown about CJ. Like, he's still here we are Tuesday morning.”
CLE 36-22 HOU — Browns beat the Texans 36-22; Texans -2.5 fails to cover (ESPN).
“and we take their number one draft pick. Don't draft the tight end at the fourth pick overall. Take the quarterback and Justin Fields. Yeah. Right? Seattle at Tennessee, we talked about it a little bit. Tennessee plus two and a half. Look. I I I waited to put some notes in for this game until after the game last night. What's interesting is even after the win in Monday night football, this game is still at two and a half. I was leaning Tennessee before. Now I'm 100% gonna have to take Tennessee after the Seattle win, and the the stat I just gave you that we didn't like for Carolina perfectly fits with Seattle. Yeah. Teams one and four straight up in their last five games coming off a win, 36% the last twenty years against the spread. Book it. We're taking Tennessee here.”
SEA 20-17 TEN — Seahawks beat the Titans 20-17; Titans +2.5 fails to cover (ESPN).
“I haven't made any bets in this game other than Lamar Jackson under his passing yardage total”
Lamar Jackson threw for 171 yards (14/24, 1 TD, 1 INT) in Baltimore's 23-7 win over Jacksonville, an easy under (ESPN box score). (Lamar Jackson 171 passing yards (14/24, 1 TD, 1 INT))
“Teams, when they face in those exact scenario, a a 111, 76, and four ATS, so 59%. So I mean, I'm a little worried. Let's talk about chargers. Let's talk about this for a second. At 13, I kinda wanna take it because I'm worried the wise guys are gonna just gonna come in and take the 13 since it already was at fourteen for a second. Yeah. I would say I just took I texted someone to go take go get the 14. It's it's 14 right now. I bet $3.06 5, so I'll take it.”
BUF 24-22 LAC — Bills beat the Chargers 24-22; Chargers +14 covers easily (ESPN).
“We're in the foxhole with the Los Angeles Rams minus six and a half.”
LAR 28, WSH 20 — Rams beat Commanders 28-20 (margin +8), covering Los Angeles -6.5 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“bears plus three and a half, panthers plus”
CLE 20, CHI 17 — Browns beat Bears 20-17 (Chicago margin -3), covering +3.5 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“This was my exact decision. The Buffalo Bill's minus two and a half.”
BUF 31, DAL 10 — Bills beat Cowboys 31-10 (margin +21), covering Buffalo -2.5 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“The faves five for now. Alright. I did lock in five games last night. Those five games, bears plus three and a half, panthers plus three and a half,”
CAR 9, ATL 7 — Panthers beat Falcons 9-7 (margin +2), covering Carolina +3.5 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“We're taking the bills at minus two and a half. Just a classic bet in the spot.”
BUF 31, DAL 10 — Bills beat Cowboys 31-10 (margin +21), covering Buffalo -2.5 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“the rams at seven. Let's say the rams are at seven at a lot of places. I would still take them at seven.”
LAR 28, WSH 20 — Rams beat Commanders 28-20 (margin +8), covering Los Angeles -7 (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“Alright. I don't think our next game is our foxhole. Philadelphia, Dallas. Dallas minus three and a half. I'm feeling pretty good about Dallas here. You you had a power rated at four.”
DAL 33, PHI 13 — Cowboys beat Eagles 33-13 (margin +20), covering Dallas -3.5 (ESPN Week 14 scoreboard).
“we still love the bears. I guess that's all there is to say. Just prefer to the three and a half, obviously. Grab that over the three.”
CHI 28, DET 13 — Bears beat Lions 28-13 (margin +15), covering Chicago +3.5 (ESPN Week 14 scoreboard).
“Agree with you on the Rams. I'm just a Stafford guy. Like, it when he has the ball late in the game, I know look. I know he can wing it, and I know he might throw an interception that ends the game, but I'm still comfortable having having them in the hook. Like, I did bet them seven and a half earlier in the week racing you know, this is how the world has changed, Simon.”
BAL 37, LAR 31 — Ravens beat Rams 37-31 in OT; Los Angeles lost by 6, covering +7.5 (ESPN Week 14 scoreboard).
“I'll take the bears plus three. It's a good spot for them. Look. They beat the Vikings.”
CHI 28, DET 13 — Bears beat the Lions 28-13 outright, covering the +3 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“Give me the bears. By the way, let's take the under 40 and a half while we're at it because that line's gonna move move down too. Yeah.”
CHI 28, DET 13 — Bears beat the Lions 28-13, a combined 41 points, just over the 40.5 total (ESPN scoreboard).
“So, yeah, we're on, we're on the Rams here at plus seven.”
BAL 37, LAR 31 — Ravens beat the Rams 37-31 in overtime; Rams lost by 6, covering the +7 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“Because we are fucking playing the Denver Broncos at the Los Angeles Chargers as three point dogs. Roll it up. Put it in. Whatever you gotta do. You know we're playing the broncos here at plus three.”
DEN 24, LAC 7 — Broncos beat the Chargers 24-7 outright, covering the +3 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“Give me Miami minus 12.”
TEN 28, MIA 27 — Titans beat the Dolphins 28-27; Miami lost outright, busting the -12 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“You sick fuck. You know it's the right side. What is? Taking the bears at plus five.”
CHI 28, DET 13 — Bears beat the Lions 28-13 outright, covering the +5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“let's make it our foxhole at six. Foxhole. Green Bay. You know me regardless of what's going on. I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team. I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy. We're in the foxhole with the Green Bay packers at plus six.”
GB 27, KC 19 — Packers beat the Chiefs 27-19 outright, covering the +6 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“Foxhall, Houston plus one and a half.”
HOU 21-JAX 24 — Jaguars beat Texans 24-21; Houston lost by 3, missing the +1.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“Big balls better than week. Cleveland browns plus two and a half.”
DEN 29-CLE 12 — Broncos routed Browns 29-12; Cleveland lost by 17, well outside the +2.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“I passed on that and took Sean Kerner, Harrison Smith under six and a half tackles at Pretty Big Juice minus one thirty five instead.”
In the Bears' 12-10 win over the Vikings on Monday Night Football, Harrison Smith recorded 2 total tackles (1 solo, 1 assisted), well under the 6.5 line, so the under wins (ESPN box score). (Harrison Smith 2 tackles (1 solo, 1 ast))
“I like Pittsburgh. That's that's a that's a that's a nice number to get them as a dog right now. They're plus plus one, plus one and a half. I grabbed that number right when it opened.”
CIN 10-PIT 16 — Steelers beat Bengals 16-10; Pittsburgh's 6-point margin easily covers the +1 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“I don't know. I don't know. So I'm gonna pay and see. I'm gonna grab the three and a half now just because I at least have some faith in this in this Giants team. Like, the kid, DeVito, finally grew a Tommy DeVito. Touchdown, Tommy. T d stands for touchdown. Put the ball downfield, and that's what I want from a quarterback. It's like, I don't care if you're completing it. At least push the ball downfield and show me that you have some type of confidence. And he completed it this week, so maybe he'll burn us next week, but it's three and a half against Mac Jones. I mean, who the hell is Mac Jones? We catch a three and a half against anyone. So I'll take that number.”
NYG 10-NE 7 — Giants beat Patriots 10-7; New York's 3-point margin covers the +3.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“So why don't we just say it right now, Denver minus two and a half? So we're at five for the record.”
DEN 21-MIN 20 — Broncos beat Vikings 21-20, a 1-point margin that falls short of the -2.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“On Sunday night, I said to you I kinda like the bears at a big number. I wasn't joking about it. You were kinda with me. By Tuesday, we were both all in on the bears at plus 10. I debated making it my executive decision game before I decided to make the steelers my executive decision game.”
DET 31-CHI 26 — Lions beat Bears 31-26; Bears lost by 5, easily covering the +10 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“So I think we're in agreement here that Carolina plus 10 and a half is making it in.”
DAL 33-CAR 10 — Cowboys routed Panthers 33-10; Carolina lost by 23, well outside the +10.5 line (ESPN scoreboard).
“I did take a taste of the panthers on the money line. You can see that in the Action Network app.”
DAL 33-CAR 10 — Panthers lost outright to the Cowboys 10-33, so the Carolina moneyline busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“chiefs minus two and a half at home against the eagles. Yeah. I I love the eagles here. Thank you. That's my guy. Love I I love the eagles in this spot. I feel like they are performing at a higher level and more comfortable with who they are. Especially offensively. It feels like offensively, they keep getting better and better every week. This Eagles team where the chiefs, they've just been spinning their tires now for weeks, but they've luckily been going against subpar competition. Like, Miami should have beat them. Right? Doesn't it feel like they stole that game from Miami where they didn't score a single point in the second half, but they still somehow beat Miami, which is crazy? By the way, there is a plus three available minus one zero five. So I am going to bet that right now before it goes away, and it's gone. It's down to two and a half again. Literally as I was pressing bet Bet. It changed to two and a half. Yeah. That that's weird they hung the three, but I get it. Right? The chief's at home. You got we always talk Mahomes at this number.”
KC 17, PHI 21 — Eagles beat Chiefs 21-17; Eagles +3 win outright, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“Exact decision, Cleveland plus six.”
BAL 31, CLE 33 — Browns beat Ravens 33-31; Browns +6 win outright, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“Denver broncos plus seven and a half against the Buffalo Bills.”
BUF 22, DEN 24 — Broncos beat Bills 24-22; Broncos +7.5 win outright, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“Baltimore is a six point favorite. I loved it on Sunday. It was at five. I bet it at five. It moved up. I bet it again at six. Give me the Cleveland Browns. My exact decision.”
BAL 31, CLE 33 — Browns beat Ravens 33-31; Browns +6 win outright, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“Seattle is one of the games that he liked. I got it at six. It's moving up in some places, but I do love Seattle in this spot.”
SEA 29, WSH 26 — Seahawks beat Commanders 29-26; Seahawks -6 win by only 3, spread busts (ESPN box score).
“I bet this at seven and a half on the broncos.”
BUF 22, DEN 24 — Broncos beat Bills 24-22; Broncos +7.5 win outright, spread covers (ESPN box score).
“Well, look. I already bet the Bucks at two and a half. I'm not afraid of this one.”
39-37 — Houston Texans beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers 39-37; Bucs' -2 margin covers +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“eagles are a three point favorite. I'm a little squeamish on this. This was my exact decision. I know you've been waffling on this too. We've got a lot of noise on both sides of this game with people liking Dallas a lot right now. What we're hearing statistically, what they like about Dallas in, how McCarthy has been calling plays for Dallas the past few games, much more aggressive, much fewer runs on first down. Eagles' third luckiest team in the NFL for the luck rankings. And then Evan shared this. Dak is twenty five and ten against the spread versus the NFC East. All that said all that said, fly, Eagles, fly.”
28-23 — Philadelphia Eagles beat Dallas Cowboys 28-23, a 5-point margin that covers -3 (ESPN box score).
“Our money line underdog round robin right now, Carolina, Tampa, Jets, Washington, Seattle.”
Moneyline round robin busts: Carolina lost 13-27 to Indianapolis, Washington beat New England 20-17 (win), Tampa Bay lost 37-39 to Houston, NY Jets lost 6-27 to LA Chargers, Seattle lost 3-37 to Baltimore (ESPN box scores; only 1 of 5 legs won).
“Give me the Eagles minus three executive decision. Are you with me?”
28-23 — Philadelphia Eagles beat Dallas Cowboys 28-23, a 5-point margin that covers -3 (ESPN box score).
“Sunday night, this game was available at Cincinnati plus one and a half. I bet that.”
24-18 — Cincinnati Bengals beat Buffalo Bills 24-18, a 6-point margin that covers +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'm grabbing the minus two right now with this patriots team.”
20-17 — Washington Commanders beat New England Patriots 20-17; Patriots' -3 margin busts -2 (ESPN box score).
“feels like a good spot for Kansas City here this week. Yeah. Super chalky, but we're just taking it because it's under three right now. And, you know, plenty of books out there at minus two. You can get that as well, which is a key number.”
21-14 — Kansas City Chiefs beat Miami Dolphins 21-14 in Frankfurt, a 7-point margin that covers -2 (ESPN box score).
“Exact decision, Dallas minus six and a half. If anyone's asking, by the way, my biggest bet last week was Philadelphia. My biggest bet this week, Dallas Cowboys.”
DAL 43, LAR 20 — Cowboys beat Rams 43-20; Dallas covers -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Green Bay plus one has been the play.”
MIN 24, GB 10 — Vikings beat Packers 24-10; Green Bay loses by 14, does not cover +1 (ESPN box score).
“I've bet Arizona plus eight and a half. One of the things that that convinced me to do, it was in our conversation on Tuesday, thinking about Kyler Murray and the potential to come back.”
BAL 31, ARI 24 — Ravens beat Cardinals 31-24; Arizona loses by 7, covers +8.5 (ESPN box score).
“I got the cowboys at minus six. I think them coming off a buy with that defense”
DAL 43, LAR 20 — Cowboys beat Rams 43-20; Dallas covers -6 (ESPN box score).
“Jacksonville at Pittsburgh. Forget the opponent. They nameless gray faces. I bet this immediately on Sunday night when it was at two.”
JAX 20, PIT 10 — Jaguars beat Steelers 20-10; Pittsburgh loses by 10, does not cover +2 (ESPN box score).
“I bet this at two and a half. I bet Seattle minus two and a half. Shout out to Brandon Anderson who had this as one of his hot reads.”
SEA 24, CLE 20 — Seahawks beat Browns 24-20; Seattle covers -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“Denver, plus eight, home dog against Kansas City. I did bet it at this number. It was eight and a half on Sunday. Yeah. The only reason we were waiting is we were hoping it might go a little bit higher. It's moved in the direction of the broncos, not surprising, massive pros Joe's game right now. I I I it moved down to seven and a half, went back up to eight. It's toggling between those two numbers, at least from what I've seen all day here on Tuesday. That's why I took the eight.”
DEN 24, KC 9 — Broncos beat Chiefs 24-9; Denver covers +8 (ESPN box score).
“the only fear for me is the fact they're coming back from playing abroad, Chad. Like, that's the only worry because I keep having that Evan stat pop in my head about those closed games in the fourth quarter on these London teams. But even if this is minus three and a half in our contest, I'm not gonna let it scare me off. Like, I'll I'll bite the bullet. I'll ride it. But, obviously, dream scenario, Chad, is the minus two and a half. But right now, I'm almost positive. I checked this morning. You can get the two and a half in contest. So, hopefully, you guys don't move the number while we're doing this live show, and we can get the Ravens again. But we know the deal. In the contest, if the line moves to whatever it is, the Ravens minus one twenty at minus three, it's gonna be three and a half or minus one fifteen. It's gonna be three and a half. If it's still at one ten,”
BAL 38, DET 6 — Ravens beat Lions 38-6; Baltimore covers -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“with the Steelers, that'll be interesting. I continue to be a Mike Tomlin backer, and there's nothing you can do to get me off that. So I bet the three”
PIT 24, LAR 17 — Steelers beat Rams 24-17; Pittsburgh covers +3 (ESPN box score).
“we won't torture people putting in our final five, but we'll throw them in the round robin. Oh my god. Pittsburgh, Atlanta, New York Giants, LA Chargers, Chicago Bears. Gross.”
Round robin legs: Steelers beat Rams 24-17 (won); Falcons beat Buccaneers 16-13 (won); Giants beat Commanders 14-7 (won); Chiefs beat Chargers 31-17, so Chargers ML lost; Bears beat Raiders 30-12 (won). One losing leg busts the parlay (ESPN box scores).
“Baltimore is right now no. Now it's up to three. So we bet this right away on Sunday night. We're on the side of the wise guys. The bets are on the lions. The money is on the ravens. Lions we said this last week, and and we didn't think it could get higher, which is why we took the box. Isn't that the the the lions value has never been higher in a burn best. Jared Goff is the most profitable QB against spread the fat past five years. That's getting even better this year. The ravens, meanwhile, have not played great. Coming home from London, Lamar Jackson not great as a favorite. We think this is the right spot. The lions, the last four games, 70% against the spread. Lions and the ravens have both beaten their opponents this season by seven plus points per game. They face off in week sevens. When two teams winning by seven plus points per game on the year meet this late in the season, the favorite covers only 40% of the time in the past twenty years. Jeez. I know. We bet Baltimore at two and a half. We already did it. Which sucks. I was gonna make this my assignment says playfield's still two and a half. Like, I loved I still love Baltimore. I love the value on Baltimore. I still love them at minus three. I make this line minus three and a half, and I just I just know if they go to minus three and a half, this will be the most public med team.”
BAL 38, DET 6 — Ravens beat Lions 38-6; Ravens margin +32 vs -2.5 line, covers (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“For Monday night football, we have liked the chargers plus two and a half. Oh, we we've liked it since last week. Yeah. We'd probably feel better if we had it in the contest right now. But, you know, they're a two and a half. They're coming off the buy. We're really high on this offense, what Kellen Moore is doing with Justin Herbert. We think they can play through the Brandon Staley miscalculations and poor coaching and bad decision making. We don't like the Cowboys play calling. I don't think Mike McCarthy is very good at it. I think he's been overrated and probably shouldn't have gotten the Cowboys job to begin with. And we don't like their defense, which is now not just without Diggs, but Layton Vander Ash who's been really effective as a linebacker. So we're on the charters.”
LAC 17, DAL 20 — Cowboys beat Chargers 20-17 on Monday night; Chargers margin -3 vs +2.5 line, busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Is that how you went with Pittsburgh? Yeah. I went with Pittsburgh plus three.”
LAR 17, PIT 24 — Steelers beat Rams 24-17; Steelers margin +7 vs +3 line, covers (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“But I I did bet the Chargers, and I'm excited that I got it at six.”
KC 31, LAC 17 — Chiefs beat Chargers 31-17; Chargers margin -14 vs +6 line, busts (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“Alright. Do it then. Fire away. This feels like a foxhole to me. Yeah. No. This feels like a foxhole. You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team. I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy. Jets, plus seven is our foxhole. We're in the foxhole, baby.”
NYJ 20, PHI 14 — Jets beat Eagles 20-14; Jets margin +6 vs +7 line, covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Bet of the week. Cleveland browns plus seven. I'm”
CLE 19, SF 17 — Browns beat 49ers 19-17; Browns margin +2 vs +7 line, covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“New England has lost its last two games by a combined total of, like, 66 points. The worst two Bill Belichick losses ever have been the past two weeks. I've never been more convinced than right now is the time to take the time to take the New England Patriots. Well, you shouldn't you shouldn't be as confident. I'm a tell you that much. Mac Jones in his last 11 starts as a dog, own 11 ATS, Chad. Oh my god. It's terrible. Ducky likes to say it's catching a falling knife. Are we getting the are we getting the Patriots at the absolute bottom of the market? And my my take on this is a massive coaching advantage. Right? Like, there's not even a question. The Raiders are prone to turning the ball over, which plays to the strength of the Patriots. The Patriots, they've actually played really hard teams and really good defenses, but then there's the trends, right, from Evan Abrams. Credit Evan Abrams. Thank you. Teams who scored three points or less the previous week, 60% against the spread the past twenty years the following week. So that's the Patriots. Teams to lose by 20 points or more the previous week, facing a team that didn't, 60% against the spread the past twenty weeks. Like, there's a lot of evidence here to back the patriots. When when a team has been its ugliest, I wish the number was higher. I'm hoping it'll be three and a half in the contest. We bet it at three and a half,”
LV 21, NE 17 — Raiders beat Patriots 21-17; Patriots margin -4 vs +3.5 line, busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Moneyline, underdog, round robin. Tampa, Washington, Chicago, Indy, New York, Jets.”
TB 6-DET 20; WSH 24-ATL 16; CHI 13-MIN 19; IND 20-JAX 37; NYJ 20-PHI 14 — Round robin legs per ESPN Week 6 scoreboard: Buccaneers ML lost (Lions 20, Bucs 6); Commanders ML won (Commanders 24, Falcons 16); Bears ML lost (Vikings 19, Bears 13); Colts ML lost (Jaguars 37, Colts 20); Jets ML won (Jets 20, Eagles 14) — parlay busts on the losing legs.
“I bet bears plus three, you and I haven't even discussed this yet. It's now down to two and a half.”
CHI 13, MIN 19 — Vikings won 19-13 at Chicago; Bears margin -6 vs +3 line, busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“money on Seattle. I grabbed Seattle plus three.”
CIN 17, SEA 13 — Bengals beat Seahawks 17-13; Seahawks margin -4 vs +3 line, busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Exact decision, Tampa Bay, Buccaneers, I'll say a plus three.”
TB 6, DET 20 — Lions beat Buccaneers 20-6; Buccaneers margin -14 vs +3 line, busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“you and I are overloaded on San Francisco minus three and a half. It's the remaining bet”
SF 42, DAL 10 — 49ers beat Cowboys 42-10, covering -3.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“better than week. Pittsburgh steelers plus four at home against the Baltimore Ravens. I wonder what Mike Tomlin is gonna say about that. You know, he didn't urinate down his leg, man. That's a great place to begin. Well, this takes some to make this bet here. It's like you're you're betting a team that you're right. They don't have it feels like the same type of dogs on defense that we're used to. Normally, I would be like, you know what? Let's just wait and see, but you were spot on giving out all these stats. And these are the reasons you just don't miss on these numbers where we're just playing the long term game with a lot of these bets we're making. Never in my life have I probably ever missed this missed this opportunity to take a Tomlin team at home in a divisional game after they lost by more than 20 points. It's too good of a number to pass on. Man, an opportunity to get a quality dude”
PIT 17, BAL 10 — Steelers beat Ravens 17-10, covering +4 (ESPN scoreboard).
“For the record, speaking of closing line value against the opening line, I bet the saints at plus one and a half. I put it in the app.”
NO 34, NE 0 — Saints beat Patriots 34-0, covering +1.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Here's a recap. Our foxhole is Indy plus two and a half. We are alone on that one. Big balls is Pittsburgh plus four. Exact decision from earlier this week was New Orleans plus one and a half. Look, folks. That line moved. It's now New Orleans is a favorite minus one. Simon Says is Atlanta minus two. A round robin. Moneyline, round robin, underdog parlay. Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, the rams, Minnesota, Arizona.”
Graded as a straight 5-leg moneyline parlay: Steelers ML won (17-10) and Colts ML won (23-16), but Rams ML lost (Eagles won 23-14), Vikings ML lost (Chiefs won 27-20), and Cardinals ML lost (Bengals won 34-20) — not every leg won, so the parlay busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“the exact decision is New Orleans plus one and a half.”
NO 34, NE 0 — Saints beat Patriots 34-0, easily covering +1.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“biggest game of the week, Cincinnati Football, Dallas and San Francisco, niners minus three and a half. This was an immediate bet on our Sunday night pot. I can tell you of all the bets I've made so far,”
SF 42, DAL 10 — 49ers beat Cowboys 42-10, covering -3.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“No. No. I bet the Colts at minus one and a half. Oh, so money's coming on the Titans?”
IND 23, TEN 16 — Colts beat Titans 23-16, covering -1.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Las Vegas raiders at chargers plus six on Tuesday. I bet it at six. It's now down to five and a half. Wise guys coming in on the raiders. I still like the charger the raiders in this spot.”
17-24 — Los Angeles Chargers beat Las Vegas Raiders 24-17; Raiders +5.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“Big balls, bet of the week. We we gotta take the jets. Kansas City at the New York jets. It's at nine and a half. I believe it will hit 10 on Sunday.”
23-20 — Kansas City Chiefs beat New York Jets 23-20; Jets +9.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“If you listen to the show, you know the stat. No one is better straight up as a dog than Rabel in NFL history. So Yep. You you just gotta sprinkle some on the money line and take the two and a half. I believe Simon said, this will be one of our bets on Sunday. He said it on Tuesday. It was my exec decision. I still love it. The wise guys love it. All the tickets coming in on the Bengals, all the money coming in on the titans.”
3-27 — Tennessee Titans beat Cincinnati Bengals 27-3; Titans +2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“it's one of the reasons we like the Bills at minus two and a half. It's why we bet Josh Allen at 10 to one as MVP because if they win this game, those odds are gonna be cut in half.”
20-48 — Buffalo Bills beat Miami Dolphins 48-20; Bills -2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“So I like Dak in this spot. I like Dak and Mike McCarthy fixing their resume issues. So I'm riding with the cowboys minus six and a half. If it's a seven, I'm not doing it.”
3-38 — Dallas Cowboys beat New England Patriots 38-3; Cowboys -6.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I bet Baltimore plus three, but I'm playing the number, and I'm playing sort of the history here that”
28-3 — Baltimore Ravens beat Cleveland Browns 28-3; Ravens +3 covers (ESPN box score).
“the like, that's why I bet the because there's there's some discrepancies here. Like, the Rams are plus one. I got them at plus one and a half last night.”
23-29 — Los Angeles Rams beat Indianapolis Colts 29-23 (OT); Rams +1.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Commanders flashed to eight and a half yesterday. I bet at eight and a half.”
31-34 — Philadelphia Eagles beat Washington Commanders 34-31 (OT); Commanders +8.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I like Tennessee better, so I'm going with Tennessee as my exact decision. I'm going with Tennessee plus two and a half.”
3-27 — Tennessee Titans beat Cincinnati Bengals 27-3; Titans +2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“So I bet this last night. I bet Buffalo minus two and a half because the the juice was moving in the in the direction of three.”
20-48 — Buffalo Bills beat Miami Dolphins 48-20; Bills -2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Houston is a three point dog at home against the Steelers. I don't know if we'll probably wanna wait and see what happens with the game tonight. But I'm already gonna grab it.”
6-30 — Houston Texans beat Pittsburgh Steelers 30-6; Texans +3 covers (ESPN box score).
“in the NFL. I feel like the Patriots have gotten unlucky in a couple games. In the luck rankings, they are the most unlucky team after two weeks. We're playing the percentages from a luck rankings point of view, and I trust that as much as anything. Like, that has become sort of, for me, a huge factor when thinking about these games. The percentage of coverage for a luck for a team that has been unlucky in this position is north of 60%. So I'm not uncomfortable with this at all. I've marked it down past minus two and a half as a near mortal lock”
15-10 — New England Patriots beat New York Jets 15-10; Patriots -2.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Our Big Balls bed of the week. Cleveland Browns minus three and a half right now. I prefer to wait until it gets to three, but I guess we're going with it.”
3-27 — Cleveland Browns beat Tennessee Titans 27-3; Browns -3.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“Full disclosure, I missed the eight and a half. I still bettered at seven and a half because I know eight is becoming the key number, but I just decided I like the Texans at anything more than a touchdown in this game.”
37-17 — Houston Texans beat Jacksonville Jaguars 37-17; Texans +7.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I stupidly did not bet the Raiders a plus one and a half. I have now bet them a two and a half.”
23-18 — Pittsburgh Steelers beat Las Vegas Raiders 23-18; Raiders -2.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“right right there with you, Chad, where it's like, we wanted to be on the rams. Now we're gonna end up probably gonna beat them on the bangles. Let me summarize here. Exact decision. Denver broncos plus seven. Simon Says, bucks plus five and a half. Games we've circled that we're feeling, you know, fairly confident that we'll talk about again on Thursday that our contest leans”
MIA 70, DEN 20 — Dolphins routed the Broncos 70-20; Denver +7 lost by 50 (ESPN box score).
“I love this game all last week. I bet Buffalo minus six on Sunday, the look ahead line before any of the games were played.”
BUF 37, WSH 3 — Bills routed the Commanders 37-3; Buffalo covered -6 by a 34-point margin (ESPN box score).
“Seattle's a four and a half point dog at bet three six five. But I'm still putting it in right now. Like, it's it's amazing. I still like that number for them. Yep. Right now, our our the three games that I think we're feeling really good about, Bill's nine and a half, Tennessee plus three, Seattle plus four and a half. I know you're on the fence about Seattle. I don't know what your problem is there, but whatever.”
SEA 37, DET 31 — Seahawks beat the Lions 37-31; Seattle covered +4.5 by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“Falcons, plus one and a half. The Millman loves it. The wise guys love it. It's down to one. This was my exact decision on Tuesday. Why is Atlanta a home dog against Green Bay?”
ATL 25, GB 24 — Falcons beat the Packers 25-24; Atlanta covered +1.5 by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“I bet New England plus three yesterday as soon as it hit the three.”
MIA 24, NE 17 — Dolphins beat the Patriots 24-17 on Sunday night; New England +3 lost by 7 (ESPN box score).
“I kept fumbling it all over it because I kept saying they were one and a half point favorites. You're like, no. They're dogs because I couldn't believe my eyes. Another game, great for a Wong teaser. It's one and a half. Take it up to seven and a half. It's just sometimes it's too easy. And this just feels like the same thing with Houston. Like, we're getting a home dog that anyone that watched that game finally came to the opinion that I had all off season, which is Ritter is not a starting quarterback in this league. This guy cannot put the ball downfield. But holy hell is that run blocking scheme incredible for this Atlanta team. So I kinda think we saw their identity for the whole season. Atlanta, they're gonna rely on their defense and running the ball. And one of Green Bay's biggest weaknesses is against the run. So we'll take Alger. We'll take Robinson in that amazing backfield, and we'll roll the dice here with a home dog. It's I I'm trying to make this one of our five. One of these two teams is definitely gonna make the playoffs from winning this game. Right? We see the stats. Teams that start two and o, they have a really high percentage of making the playoffs. So what team do you really believe in here, Chad, to make a playoff run? Is it is it Green Bay in that tough division, or is it Atlanta in this really soft division where they them and the saints look like, you know, they're gonna be the best. I know the bucc hype's crazy right now, but, oh, man, it's a hard one to swallow because we are banking on Jordan Love not being as good as he looked against the Bears. Because let's face it. Every Packers quarterback last thirty years has looked good against the Bears. But, man, there there's a couple times, Chad, where he just had zero pressure. So that's the thing here. We're gonna learn if Elena has some good pass rushers or is Bryce Young just complete dog shit last week. So because Green Bay's offensive line looked good. I mean, again, Chad already talked about the bears. Didn't really have any pass rushers coming into this season. So another one that's making it a little uneasy because Jordan Love could be this good in this offense. Like, we just don't know because that that game kinda got out of hand so quickly, that bears Green Bay game where that that defense just looked lost for the bears. That bears defense looked horrible, but it did it did put Jordan Love in a lot of really advantageous spots. Agree. And I do think that the falcon secondary I mean, everybody's secondary is better than the bears, but I'm telling you right now, I'm making an executive decision. A choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Now you have your orders. Execute them. Executive decision. Give me the Atlanta falcons. Give me Arthur Smith.”
ATL 25, GB 24 — Falcons beat the Packers 25-24; Atlanta covered +1.5 by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“Are you ready? Yeah. The Chicago bears, three point dogs visiting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Dude, I can tell you right now the bears are gonna be one of our five. I don't know about that, but, yeah, I do like the number. It's a good number. I'm with you on taking the three.”
TB 27, CHI 17 — Buccaneers beat the Bears 27-17; Chicago +3 lost by 10 (ESPN box score).
“It's a great opportunity for the Browns in a week in which the Bengals are going to be as overvalued as they are at any point in the season until they lose the first five games, and then we realize it's time to start betting the Bengals. Yeah. The Browns are in. That's fair. We have a home divisional dog that should be a pick, but we're catching two and a half free points because the Bengals were so good last year. We'll take this number every time. Again, won't be shocked come Sunday if this is one of the biggest public sides. It's just that they love the fact they're getting Joe Burr under a field goal. He is Joe Cool. So I totally get where the public's coming from. They just I feel like they don't see they're getting a bad number here. You'd be shocked, Chad, about how many how many pros I know staying away from this just because they're scared of Joe. So the it's the same thing. I mean, we didn't talk about it, but that's that Chiefs”
CIN 3-CLE 24 — Browns beat Bengals 24-3 on Sept 10, 2023; Browns +2.5 covers as an outright winner (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“talk about the steelers because I love the steelers. They were the exact decision. You complimented me in a backhanded way and said you liked it, but it was very much a public dog. The Niners traveling, Kyle Shanahan is not great as a road favorite. The public is is moving the value of the niners outside the range of where I think it should be. Nick Bosa resigned. We talked about it on Tuesday. I imagine he'll play. Oh, yeah. But that doesn't worry me because when TJ Watt is playing, he's such a difference maker for the not for the Steelers that I think you just got we gotta plan. Yeah. And I hate it, though, because Nick is he's the defensive player of the year. He's so damn good. And even if he only plays 10 snaps, he's gonna wreak havoc on all 10 of those snaps. He's just so dominant. So, yeah, I did love this number just because he was out. Like, that was a huge deal to me. I didn't think the bookmakers were making enough of an adjustment to this line. The fact that he's coming back, if you're a 49ers fan, you gotta be ecstatic, but nothing changed that nothing changed for me, Chad. Still think they should be closer to a pick. We're still getting two and a half. Most books still have it at two. We'll take that value. It's just I think we already talked enough about it where it's it's Brock on the road coming back from a major injury in his first start.”
SF 30-PIT 7 — 49ers beat Steelers 30-7 on Sept 10, 2023; Steelers +2.5 busts with a 23-point loss (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“Oh, I'm just throwing some things out there. I'm just I'm making some ideas right now. Browns plus one twenty. Yeah. Definitely. Steelers plus one fifteen. I'm tempted by titans at plus one forty seven. I don't hate it. I had us but we were gonna take Cleveland. Yep. I had us taking Pittsburgh. We can't not do it just because so many pros love it, and we need a big dog here. So for us, for the big dog, I thought we'd throw the bucks in. Like, Okay. Just a completely outside shot that they they can come back and win that game. Because we could do the Colts. I just I think the Colts will cover that number. I just can't see a scenario with them win. Like, it's just so much would have to go wrong for the Jaguars for them to win. So, yeah, for my for my big dog, I feel better going to Bucks. I don't hate your if you wanna go to Tennessee, I'll put that one in, and then we'll finish it off. Would you rather do Giants or the Jets? I feel better about the Jets. Okay. I I was gonna say jets are patriots, so let's go with the jets. Yeah. Let's do the jets. Okay. So our money line round robin parlay will be, the New York jets, the Cleveland browns, the Pittsburgh steelers, the Tampa Bay Bucks, and the Tennessee Titans.”
Week 1 moneyline round robin: Jets beat Bills 22-16 (OT) win; Browns beat Bengals 24-3 win; Steelers lost to 49ers 7-30 loss; Buccaneers beat Vikings 20-17 win; Titans lost to Saints 15-16 loss. Two of five legs lost, so the parlay busts (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“Alright. Well, look. We've already locked one in. We love the Browns plus two and a half.”
CIN 3-CLE 24 — Browns beat Bengals 24-3 on Sept 10, 2023; Browns +2.5 covers as an outright winner (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“of course, the executive decision has to be take the Pittsburgh steelers as home ducks. A choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Now you have your orders. Execute them. Executive decision. Yeah. It's it's a public dog, but we have to take it. Do we love it mainly because Nick Boas isn't out? No. But that is a big factor. The fact that he won't be in this game, we know that as good as you wanna make this defensive front for the 49ers, it all goes with Nick Bosa. Like, he's the one that's getting the double teams and fighting through that and still getting sacks. He's just a game wrecker. And you take that away, and you go on the other side and bring in TJ Watt fully healthy. Like, last year, he just wasn't healthy. Even when he came back, he said he was playing hurt. So I didn't even know that stat. The fact that he was eight and two, fighting through those injuries with this team ATS, it's it it is very public. There's there's two really public dogs this week. This is one of them. I'm with Chad. We loved it at plus three. We still love it at two and a half.”
SF 30-PIT 7 — 49ers beat Steelers 30-7 on Sept 10, 2023; Steelers +2.5 busts with a 23-point loss (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“I went I went deep on that Justin Herbert to lead the league in total passing yards. I can't wait for that.”
Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards in the 2023 regular season with 4,624 yards; Justin Herbert finished 18th with 3,134 (ESPN 2023 passing leaders).
“Trevor Lawrence to lead the league in down passes 30 to one. Let me give you my reasoning.”
Trevor Lawrence threw 21 passing touchdowns in 2023; Dak Prescott led the NFL with 36 (ESPN player stats). (Lawrence 21 passing TDs (Prescott led NFL with 36))
“Jalen Carter, defensive rookie of the year, seven one, bet three six five, great odds. He's blowing up camp.”
Will Anderson Jr. (Texans) won the 2023 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award, not Jalen Carter (AP awards, via Wikipedia).
“Bills Niners, that's my matchup in the Super Bowl. Longish odds.”
27-24 — San Francisco reached Super Bowl LVIII, but Buffalo was eliminated in the divisional round by Kansas City 27-24, so Bills-Niners was not the Super Bowl matchup (ESPN/Wikipedia 2023-24 NFL playoffs).
“I do love Bijan Robinson who is about 11 to one to lead the league in rushing because I honestly feel like Arthur Smith might let him carry the ball 2,000 times.”
Bijan Robinson ran for 976 yards in 2023; Christian McCaffrey led the NFL with 1,459 (ESPN rushing leaders). (Robinson 976 rush yards (McCaffrey led NFL with 1,459))
“I've already bet the Pats over seven and a half. I haven't bet the division yet, but I will.”
Patriots finished the 2023 regular season 4-13, well under the 7.5-win total (ESPN standings). (Patriots 4-13)
“But I feel like we gotta go with Cleveland plus three fifty to win the division.”
The Baltimore Ravens (13-4) won the AFC North; the Cleveland Browns finished 11-6 as a wild card, not division winner.
“Cleveland Browns over eight and a half. Right now, it's pretty expensive, minus $1.70”
Browns finished the 2023 regular season 11-6, over the 8.5-win total. (CLE 11-6)
“we loved Cleveland plus two and a half against Cincinnati in week one. Joe Burrow's not playing. We like that even more.”
24-3 — Browns beat Bengals 24-3 in Week 1 (Sept 10, 2023); Browns +2.5 covers (margin +21).
“I bet the over 33 and a half on on the hall of fame game tonight.”
21-16 — Browns beat Jets 21-16 in the 2023 Hall of Fame Game; combined 37 points is over 33.5.
“we do like the Rams over six and a half,”
Rams finished the 2023 regular season 10-7, over the 6.5-win total. (LAR 10-7)
“I'm betting the Colts plus three and a half. You're not betting it yet.”
31-21 — Jaguars beat Colts 31-21 in Week 1 (Sept 10, 2023); Colts lost outright, outside +3.5.
“for week one so far. Because here's another one that I love. Are you ready? Yeah. Ben Roethlisberger's nemesis, Kenny Pickett, as a three point underdog at home against the San Francisco forty niners. Are you fucking kidding me? That is irresponsible to have the steelers as three point underdogs. This team Team a Mike Tomlin rah rah spot. Matt Mitchell, cue it, play it, run it, give me the dogs. What? A rah rah Mike Tomlin spot. Win the game with this crew of bodies right here today. Bring y'all a game today. Yay. Mike Tomlin, rah rah spot. San Francisco, way overvalued. Kenny Pickett played really well. His defense is really good. They improved at every level. Like, of course, we're taking the Steelers. And I guarantee you, Simon, the Steelers will be one half of our underdog money line parlay. Lock. Lock.”
30-7 — 49ers routed Steelers 30-7 in Week 1 (Sept 10, 2023); Steelers lost outright by 23, outside +3.
“Arizona plus six on the road at the just discussed Washington commanders.”
20-16 — Commanders beat Cardinals 20-16 in Week 1 (Sept 10, 2023); Cardinals lost by 4, covering +6.
“The Steelers right now the Steelers over plus eight and a half, plus 100 at bet three six five. We love betting the Steelers and their win totals. That Tomlin, I can't I can't remember. Matt Mitchell, can you tell me? What did the Steelers finish last year? But I'm pretty sure in every seven and a half, so he hit the over. Yeah. So that right. They had eight wins last year. So Mike Tomlin has never finished below 500 or, in this case, since a 17 game season, below eight wins. So they're at eight and a half with Kenny Pickett at a full season. Huge, huge fan of Kenny Pickett, Kenny Baller. And they had a really good draft. Like, eight and a half at plus 100? I don't know how you're not betting that.”
Steelers finished the 2023 NFL regular season 10-7, over the 8.5 win total (ESPN standings). (10-7)
“Over four and a half quarterbacks taken in the first round. I'm a firm believer [35:16] Hendon Hooker will sleep will sneak into the bottom of the first round.”
Only 3 quarterbacks (Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson) were drafted in round 1, so the over 4.5 lost (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“I would bet, over four and a half quarterbacks in the first round right now.”
Only 3 quarterbacks (Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson) were drafted in round 1; no other QB was taken before pick 32, so the over 4.5 lost (ESPN 2023 draft round 1 results).
“I bet the under. I didn't get a good number. I got it at 49 and a half.”
PHI 35, KC 38 — Kansas City beat Philadelphia 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII, a combined 73 points, well over the 49.5 total, so the under lost.
“I actually love the idea of over two and a half players to throw a pass in this game.”
Only two players attempted a pass in the game, Patrick Mahomes (21/27, 182 yds) for Kansas City and Jalen Hurts (27/38, 302 yds) for Philadelphia, so Over 2.5 players to throw a pass lost.
“I like Miles Sanders to lead the game in rushing.”
Miles Sanders rushed for 16 yards on 7 carries, well behind Isiah Pacheco's 76 rushing yards, so Sanders did not lead the game in rushing. (Sanders 16 rush yds (7 car) vs Pacheco 76 (15 car), Hurts 70 (15 car))
“I like Miles Sanders as MVP”
Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl LVII MVP, not Miles Sanders.
“I'm going to do Mahomes for $5 and I'm going to do Kelsey for $2.50.”
Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl LVII MVP, so Millman's Mahomes ticket cashed.
“Remember last year, Cooper Cupp, well, he was the top pass catcher, like top pass catcher. First of all, two of the last four winners have actually been pass catchers. And even if Cupp doesn't win last year, it's Tee Higgins that's going to win. So either way, a pass catcher would have won last year. Travis Kelsey 16-1, that cut close six to one last year. Travis Kelsey, 16 to one. He has a touchdown in 11 of his last 14 postseason games. He's got 90 plus in six of his last seven postseason games. So if the Chiefs win, there could be a situation where Mahomes, because of how good the Eagles defense is, Mahomes could throw for like 250, 260 with two touchdowns. Travis Kelsey could go for like 130 with both of those touchdowns. Who wins with the brother battle thing? Could be Kelsey. So I actually think if you like to, if you want a positive Chiefs bet, Travis Kelsey is a crazy good value. Well, I'm not just going to do Travis Kelsey. I'm going to do Mahomes and Travis Kelsey.”
Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl LVII MVP, not Travis Kelce.
“I have no idea. I seriously don't. I like the under and I still do. I've betted a 51 since it hit there recently as well. I'm just against Simon here. Now, I understand what the theory is behind liking the over. My theory is this, Chiefs in the over, Eagles in the under. I just think that's the way it's... will progress as the game goes. So like, you know, there's ways to play combined parlays and things like that. I just feel like that's the approach, whether it's pressure, their pass defense, their offensive line, it's just all better units on Philly's side. But the one thing I will say, when it comes to injuries, Simon is also 100% correct. I am 20 times more worried about Hurts than I am Mahomes. We just saw Mahomes play. We saw what happened and he's got two weeks. We heard all that Kelsey news day of, man, absolutely nothing. He had seven catches. He probably should have had eight or nine in the games. So I think from an injury point of view, I am scared to death of Philly. And that's why, listen, I bet it at minus 115. I bet it at minus 120. That's what I got early.”
38-35 — Chiefs beat Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII; combined 73 points blows past the 51 total, so Under 51 busts (ESPN box score).
“I bet the under 49 and a half.”
38-35 — Chiefs beat Eagles 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII; combined 73 points blows past the 49.5 total, so Under 49.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“And then the big balls is Eagles minus two and a half.”
31-7 — Eagles beat 49ers 31-7 in the NFC Championship; Eagles margin +24 easily covers -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I going with the under 47 and a half for the Bengals and the Chiefs”
23-20 — Chiefs beat Bengals 23-20 in the AFC Championship; combined 43 points stays under the 47.5 total, so Under 47.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I bet Eagles minus two.”
31-7 — Eagles beat 49ers 31-7 in the NFC Championship; Eagles margin +24 easily covers -2 (ESPN box score).
“I bet over 45 and a half.”
31-7 — Eagles beat 49ers 31-7 in the NFC Championship; combined 38 points falls short of the 45.5 total, so Over 45.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“big balls bet of the week Philadelphia Eagles minus 7.5 and I will do the same thing”
PHI 38, NYG 7 — Eagles beat Giants 38-7, a 31-point margin that covers PHI -7.5 (ESPN box score).
“I going with the Chiefs and Jags under 52 and a half”
KC 27, JAX 20 — Chiefs beat Jaguars 27-20, a combined 47 points, under 52.5 (ESPN box score).
“Obviously, the Eagles made stops against that Giants offense, but it's hard for me to give up the under. That is what I bet. It was 48-and-a-half. I took the under.”
PHI 38, NYG 7 — Eagles beat Giants 38-7, a combined 45 points, under 48.5 (ESPN box score).
“Right now we've got a Bills minus 4.5 is the foxhole.”
BUF 10, CIN 27 — Bengals beat Bills 27-10, a 17-point Bills loss that misses BUF -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“it's interesting that we're talking about the bills you and i talked about it the other day we texted like that line was sitting at 12 and a half i still felt good about it at 12 and a half i bet it at 12 and a half i still feel good about it i think they might beat them by 30”
BUF 34, MIA 31 — Bills beat Dolphins 34-31, only a 3-point margin, well short of BUF -12.5 (ESPN box score).
“Ravens defense you can follow in the action app I bet it at six and a half”
CIN 24, BAL 17 — Bengals beat Ravens 24-17, a 7-point Ravens loss that misses BAL +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Love the Bucks at two and a half”
TB 14, DAL 31 — Cowboys beat Buccaneers 31-14, a 17-point Bucs loss that misses TB +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“Exec decision Bucks plus two and a half.”
TB 14, DAL 31 — Cowboys beat Buccaneers 31-14, a 17-point Bucs loss that misses TB +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“let's talk about the broncos first broncos plus three and a half look we like the broncos plus three and a half at least i did uh on tuesday”
DEN 31, LAC 28 — Broncos beat Chargers 31-28 at home, covering the +3.5 spread outright with the win.
“I'm going with the Browns, plus two and a half.”
PIT 28, CLE 14 — Steelers beat Browns 28-14; Cleveland lost by 14, missing the +2.5 spread.
“14 is just a big number. It's too big of a number in the NFL. We're going with the Cardinals. Cardinals. Yeah, we got it, I guess. It's the last week of the year, and this is just a massive number.”
SF 38, ARI 13 — 49ers beat Cardinals 38-13; Arizona lost by 25, well short of the +14 they needed.
“and that the Rams this week on the road, six and a half at Seattle. Have to do it. Have to do it.”
SEA 19, LAR 16 — Seahawks beat Rams 19-16 in overtime; Los Angeles lost by only 3, covering the +6.5 spread.
“the denver broncos plus three and a half at home against the titans what are we gonna i mean against”
DEN 31, LAC 28 — Broncos beat Chargers 31-28 at home, covering the +3.5 spread outright with the win.
“For me, the bill's minus one and a half.”
The Bills-Bengals game was suspended in the first quarter after Damar Hamlin's on-field cardiac arrest and never resumed; ESPN lists the game as canceled/no contest, and sportsbooks voided undecided spread, total, and moneyline wagers.
“All right, then let's go with the Bucs at minus three. Perfect. Big balls, bet of the week. Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus three. Just to recap for people right now,”
TB 30, CAR 24 — Buccaneers beat Panthers 30-24; Tampa Bay won by 6, covering the -3 spread.
“Chad Millman has decided he's going with the Broncos plus 12 and a half.”
KC 27, DEN 24 — Chiefs beat Broncos 27-24; Denver lost by only 3, covering the +12.5 spread.
“It's my executive decision. When we talked about it earlier in the week, you were like, if you're not going to make it your exact decision, then it's going to be my Simon Says. I love the Colts at four. it doesn't matter to me who's playing quarterback”
LAC 20, IND 3 — Chargers beat Colts 20-3 on Monday Night Football; Indianapolis lost by 17, failing to cover +4 (ESPN).
“Big balls, bet of the week. Washington Commanders plus seven.”
SF 37, WSH 20 — 49ers beat Commanders 37-20; Washington lost by 17, failing to cover +7 (ESPN).
“The more I look at it, the more it feels like they're on the right side. I think some of the money is reflective of, the line opened at five and a half. I got it at five and a half on Tuesday.”
MIA 20, GB 26 — Packers beat Dolphins 26-20; Green Bay won outright, covering +5.5 (ESPN).
“I would take the Bears, but I got them at nine and a half.”
BUF 35, CHI 13 — Bills beat Bears 35-13; Chicago lost by 22, failing to cover +9.5 (ESPN).
“If you want to make it a Simon Says, go ahead. But it doesn't feel like a Simon Says. To me, the spirit of Simon Says is you've got to bet it right now because the line is going to move. I do think this could move, though. Like, pros are going to be all over this. But, yeah, let's just make it a foxhole then. You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team. I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy. Jeez, I fucking hate this. I fucking hate this game. I know. No, it's awful. I have more confidence in this than I did with the Bucs last week. where like the Bucs, I couldn't see the roadmap and the number didn't make sense, but this number does. Like I literally have this number at three. Like last week with the Bucs game, I couldn't touch it because we said all the time, why is this number not six? And that just spooked me, just a weird number. This number makes sense. Like Cincy, yes, they're very good. They also have weaknesses, and some of those weaknesses can be exploited by a Patriots team that's desperate. So it just feels like I hate to be like, oh, this is such a smart play. This really does feel like a smart number. Like you just take this number and one of those games, if you can't handle it, just don't watch it because it's not going to be fun. Patriots plus three and a half. We're going to the foxhole. Let's go.”
CIN 22, NE 18 — Bengals beat Patriots 22-18; New England lost by 4, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN).
“The Indianapolis Colts will be my executive decision. Colts plus four.”
LAC 20, IND 3 — Chargers beat Colts 20-3 on Monday Night Football; Indianapolis lost by 17, failing to cover +4 (ESPN).
“Packers are the Dolphins. By the way, Matt Mitchell reminds us we're on to the Sunday afternoon games, beginning with the Packers and the Dolphins. No joke. 11 a.m. this morning, this line was at five and a half. I bet it at five and a half. It is at four and a half, and it is falling so fast. And if it had stayed at five and a half, it 100% would have been my executive decision. I still like it at four and a half. Yeah, I still like it a lot at four and a half.”
MIA 20, GB 26 — Packers beat Dolphins 26-20; Green Bay won outright, covering +5.5 (ESPN).
“No, this would be an easy pick. It's always scary to us to do it on a Thursday. On Thursday. Because I hit that 0-1-1 heading into Sunday. but i'm trying to convince myself it's all good chad because we can either we can do a pick on saturday anyway so i'm trying to chin zone it so it's like we should end up on this game you know what i think we got to do it all right let's do it we're gonna put it in is it three and a half yeah yeah i'll be three and a half definitely okay so people listening know that we're putting seattle in i'll put it in the app under the phase five um so you'll see that we put that pick in uh”
SF 21, SEA 13 — 49ers beat Seahawks 21-13 on Thursday Night Football; Seattle lost outright, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN).
“And let me remind people, you mentioned foxhole. Bears plus nine is our foxhole.”
PHI 25, CHI 20 — Eagles beat Bears 25-20; Chicago lost by 5, covering +9 (ESPN).
“Bears plus nine is Foxhole. Simon says Jags plus four and a half. Exec decision, Colts plus four. Big balls, Washington minus four and a half. Scooch roulette, Simon, Washington minus four and a half. Chad is on the Jags plus four and a half for Scooch roulette.”
JAX 40, DAL 34 — Jaguars beat Cowboys 40-34 in OT; Jacksonville won outright, easily covering +4.5 (ESPN).
“I want to go with the Colts plus four.”
MIN 39, IND 36 — Vikings beat Colts 39-36 in OT; Indianapolis lost by 3, covering +4 (ESPN).
“half i did so of course we're going to bet the bears a plus nine yeah i don't know if i'll have”
PHI 25, CHI 20 — Eagles beat Bears 25-20; Chicago lost by 5, covering +9 (ESPN).
“to love so many games here. The Dallas Cowboys are on the road. They are four and a half point favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars. I love the Jags here. Yeah, we're screwed. Of course we love them. We're going to bet this. We're going to lose money on it. It's just the way the world works for us this season. I just love this Jaguars team. We're finally seen these last couple weeks exactly what we saw coming into the season of trevor lawrence being that guy taking that next step it took a while it took a while for him to get comfortable in doug's system we've seen it these last couple weeks so he is finally comfortable this team is really potent on offense when he's got everything going so you know chad i just i feel bad because people are getting so scarred from our love with the jaguars oh yeah i completely understand it because even last week they might have been down seven nothing whatever it was and i was just cursing myself saying why do I keep betting this Jaguars team but the Trevor Lawrence effect man he's so talented there's just certain throws he makes you're just like man this kid has all the tools to be good in this sport so Chad and I we might be buying high on the Jaguars here after the biggest biggest win of the year against the Titans now coming home and we're selling on a Cowboys team that they just had their worst game of the year against the They definitely should have lost. The Texans just can't beat – they can't put teams away, and they let Dallas hang around. Dallas able to steal that game. But my concern here is just what it was a couple weeks ago. I talked about Dak. I just – I don't like what I've seen from Dak. Dak doesn't look comfortable. He hasn't looked right all season. That's why I don't take them serious come playoff time. I'd still put the 49ers over them, even with this seventh-round quarterback. It's just – it's the Dak effect. He just doesn't make the plays like he used to. He doesn't run out of the pocket like he used to. He doesn't make the smart reads like he used to. I don't know what's going on deck. It's just something, something's different with him this year. Something's wrong. And he's already struggled in his whole career in the playoffs. To me, that's just going to inflate come playoff time. So, me and Chad are probably going to have, I'm not going to lie, we're probably going to have this as one of our five. Like, I really do like this number against a Dallas team that, sure, they might be able to put up points and run the ball. I just don't see their defense really slowing down this Jaguars offense. They just have a lot clicking for them right now. So, yeah, good matchup for this Jaguars team. What I like about this right now, the last six weeks since week nine, Trevor Lawrence, according to Pro Football Focus, second highest rated passer in the NFL. He's got 10 touchdowns, no picks. Early in the year when we love the Jags, they were not converting in the red zone. And the problem wasn't the play calling. it was Trevor Lawrence and I'm no football I'm not like a football analyst but I watch more than the average person he was throwing these balls that had no touch and were super flat in the red zone and you could see that's evolving especially in that game against the Titans you also saw him running against the Titans he had a great bootleg to score a touchdown against the Titans and the One thing I'll say is that their offensive line is really good. Top five against pressure in the NFL. And so that mitigates Dallas's strength, which is rushing the passer. And the Cowboys have a lot of injuries in the back end of their defensive secondary. Give me this game at home. I like the matchup. I just do. I really, really do.”
JAX 40, DAL 34 — Jaguars beat Cowboys 40-34 in OT; Jacksonville won outright, easily covering +4.5 (ESPN).
“This is as low as it gets behind the Titans. And this is the worst they've looked all year, right? They... Who did they play before the Eagles? I don't remember who they played, but I'm pretty sure they lost. Then they get absolutely dominated by the Eagles. And they actually get dominated here by the Jaguars. Oh, man. That's the fear here, Chad, where it's like the Titans, they are kind of reverting back to what they were early in the season of this team that we thought were going to just be bad, right? They lost a lot of key positions on offense. Their defense was struggling. And Vrabel kind of righted the ship during the middle of the season. They've reverted back to it a little bit here these last couple of weeks. But how can we not? This is what we do against the Chargers. We take the dog, especially if it's at three. So got to hold your nose and take the Titans here at plus three. Done. Millman did it while we were talking. He saw the three on the board. It's plus three minus 118 at FanDuel. Thank you, FanDuel. Yep. Quick slipped it. Quick slipped it. For those who are listening, if you're in a legal state, go into your action app. Pick the game you want. Quick slip it immediately to FanDuel. You don't have to go into the FanDuel app. Look for the game. You get the bet slip right there, punch in your bet. It's super easy. One of these next two games will be my executive decision,”
LAC 17, TEN 14 — Chargers beat Titans 17-14; Tennessee lost by exactly 3, pushing on +3 (ESPN).
“talk about the lions for a second let's talk about the broncos and the chiefs because they loved that number yeah hit me with uh the trend you heard yeah so what's funny is like you do these shows on amp and people are listening now we know we know that we have an audience that likes betting we know that when you listen on amp you like betting even more so what was interesting was that game when we started talking about it on tuesday was at nine and a half before i was done talking about it, it was at nine. Now, it's been back up to nine Of course I got That could be part of the sudden injury right I think Sutton got put out So yeah that could be part of it Could be. But, of course, I got nervous on Tuesday. As soon as I saw it going on, I hit it at 9.”
KC 34-28 DEN — Chiefs beat Broncos 34-28; Denver +9 covers on a 6-point loss (ESPN box score).
“The, you know, this, the Giants, it's a divisional game. Giants at home, playoff implications, all the things you said, plus the inflation on the Eagles. Yes. Back to Giants. The other thing I'll say is pricing, the juice on this at plus seven is already below minus 110, which basically tells you get it now because it's moving fast. And it is a pros-joes game. 63% of the bets on the Eagles, 60% of the money on the Giants.”
PHI 48-22 NYG — Eagles beat Giants 48-22; New York +7 lost outright and against the spread (ESPN box score).
“issues with this team traveling. Vikings visiting the lions. The lions are two and a half point favorites. This line has moved up. Opened at one and a half, uh, moved up today. Like in the last few hours, I don't know if it's because I picked the lions on our show green dot daily that airs at noon eastern on ad action network network hq and in the app i'm gonna ed this exact decision on the lions i still like the lions at less than a field goal 94 of the money on the lions right now but 57 on the vikings so it's a pro joe game pros on the lions they're just a better team like i know it sounds crazy to say it the vikings again a one score game gave up nearly 500 yards to the jets the Jets punted one time. They scored one touchdown. The Lions, since Amonra St. Brown came back, since they had their bye, the Lions are comparable to the Bengals in terms of their rankings for advanced metrics on offense and defense, and they're lights out at home. So I'm Love, love, love the Lions in this spot. By the way, Simon, we're two Lions wins away from cashing our over ticket for the season, which was probably our biggest preseason win total future. Do you agree or disagree? Lions, exact decision. Exact decision by Chad Millman.”
DET 34-23 MIN — Lions beat Vikings 34-23, covering as -2.5 favorites (ESPN box score).
“Yeah Broncos Carolina which did go under Yeah which went way under All right I will say this right now as I said it last week for the Rams very early big balls bet of the week contender, Broncos plus nine and a half at home against the Chiefs. Wait. Last week, I was slacking with Matt Mitchell and Simon. every morning i woke up wanting to bet the broncos waited waited waited it got to my to plus 10 for about five minutes i better to plus 10 and felt great about it i'm waiting for this to get the plus 10 because 81 of the money is on the chiefs 83 of the bets but the broncos are the side here simon yep i mean if you want to say we're big balls i was gonna make this our foxhole but we can do big balls for this one no dude i'll listen i want the broncos on our slate that's all i'm saying it's gonna be so we talked about last yeah foxhole broncos right we're in the foxhole”
KC 34-28 DEN — Chiefs beat Broncos 34-28; Denver +9.5 covers on a 6-point loss (ESPN box score).
“right now because they are at home this line has gone up it's uh they're plus one right now um i cannot understand for the life of me why anybody would take the steelers in this spot i like kenny pickett i think he's a gamer i think he's going to be a serviceable if not better professional, been really impressed with how he's evolved from being thrown into the fire to being better after the bye week. We saw it against New Orleans. We saw it against Cincinnati. We saw it against the Colts, but they shouldn't be row favorites. This isn't a rah-rah Mike Tomlin spot. This is a bet the Falcons who probably should be playing for the division and still have a shot at it why would I not bet the Falcons here”
PIT 19-16 ATL — Steelers beat Falcons 19-16; Atlanta +1 lost outright and against the spread (ESPN box score).
“Plus eight Actually down to seven and a half because the wise guys have come in on the Rams I don know why Say it And the Seahawks Dude you know what we doing right now Yeah. Big ball bed of the week, my friend. It is. We love the Rams when everyone's jumped off the ship.”
SEA 27-23 LAR — Seahawks beat Rams 27-23; Rams +7.5 covers on a 4-point loss (ESPN box score).
“Titans plus five and a half. [11:14] Visiting the Eagles. [11:16] I love the Titans here.”
PHI 35-10 TEN — Eagles beat Titans 35-10; Tennessee +5.5 lost outright and against the spread (ESPN box score).
“49ers minus three and a half in the foxhole.”
SF 33-17 MIA — 49ers beat Dolphins 33-17, covering as -3.5 favorites (ESPN box score).
“Our favorite team to fade on the road as a favorite, the Los Angeles Chargers, are on the road as a favorite against the Las Vegas Raiders. The number right now is one and a half. The Raiders are one and a half point underdogs. The Chargers nearly gave it away against the Cardinals pulled one out and the Raiders did exactly the opposite beating up on the Seahawks in the overtime with Josh Jacobs gaining 800 yards in the game It's a pro-Joe game. Tickets on the Chargers. Not your exact decision? No. Oh, fuck. Love Vegas here. Yeah, I love it. I love Vegas here. Yeah, going to make Chad force this one in on Sunday. Well, hopefully we'll get two and a half. That'd be amazing because two, such a lame number. I fucking hate pushes. So hopefully they give us two and a half.”
LV 27-20 LAC — Raiders beat Chargers 27-20 outright; Las Vegas +1.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“The Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals, two and a half point underdogs at home. We're EDing the fuck out of the Bengals right now. a choice between the unthinkable and the impossible Now you have your orders execute them Executive decision”
CIN 27-24 KC — Bengals beat Chiefs 27-24; Cincinnati +2.5 covers on a 3-point win (ESPN box score).
“no bye weeks bills lions uh the bills are on the road they are nine and a half point favorites I think you like the Bills in this game. And to me, I love the Lions.”
BUF 28, DET 25 — Bills beat Lions 28-25; Lions margin -3 vs the +9.5 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“I said my favorite bet for Thanksgiving was the Vikings first quarter minus one and a half.”
MIN 33, NE 26 — Patriots led the first quarter 10-7; Vikings 1st-quarter margin -3 vs the -1.5 line, busts (ESPN box score, quarter-by-quarter).
“On Thursday, my favorite bet is Patriots plus three. [23:03] Go grab it.”
MIN 33, NE 26 — Vikings beat Patriots 33-26; Patriots margin -7 vs the +3 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“You just fucking said it, dude. The Titans haven't, they've covered in like eight straight weeks. Frabel is an underdog. We all know the numbers. This is going to be a spot chat. I feel like we're going to be kind of alone on it. Maybe a couple of pros will bet it with us, But Joe Public will be on the Titans. They'll tease the Titans up to eight or seven and a half. Like they going to love this number this week To me the biggest advantage is the Titans only weakness is they can be passed on And lucky for us I shouldn say lucky but it seems like Joe Mixon is going to be out Samaji Pete Reins are receiving back. We saw last week how dominant he was catching the ball in the backfield. That's what the Bengals' identity will be against Tennessee. That's how they're going to beat them, is passing the ball and moving it through the air. So giving me this number under three, I honestly think it's a gift. Again, we saw these two teams playing the playoffs last year. I think the Titans sacked them like 10 times. I'm not even exaggerating. Yeah. And they still lost that game. This Bengals O-line is much improved. This should be a good matchup for this Bengals team. So just based off the regression we expect from Tennessee here, they should drop this game. But not only that, I think they're sucking the public in a little bit. So it's not surprising to see the money and the tickets come in early on Tennessee. Again, two and a half, two, one and a half. As long as you get under three, I would take this Bengals number.”
CIN 20, TEN 16 — Bengals beat Titans 20-16, covering -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“Our exec decision, Atlanta plus four and a half.”
WSH 19, ATL 13 — Commanders beat Falcons 19-13; Falcons margin -6 vs the +4.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“in this position Denver Broncos oh god they're two and a half point favorites at Carolina that's how bad Carolina is that the Broncos are two and a half point favorites on the road and this Broncos team is just dreadful. This is an auto play on the under for sure. But what do we think of the side here? I immediately regretted spending any time on this game, working the numbers, trying to figure this game out. It was truly pointless where it's like, I don't know what I'm getting from either quarterback. I know exactly what I'm getting from both defenses. Chad just nailed it. I'll just take the under and pass on this game. I want to take Carolina because who the hell is Denver to be catching points right now? They got nothing working. Just an absolute train wreck of a season. It's a real shame Chad didn't listen to his co-host all summer talking about how bad Russell Wilson is. Did I ever imagine to be this bad? No. This is crazy. It is crazy how bad he is. The whole situation is so crazy. I just can't believe they gave him that contract. Just feels so terrible for Denver fans. So, yeah, would love to take Panthers here. Maybe I will if it's Sam Darnold at quarterback, but baker mayfield can't do it can't do it so i'll just take the under so um we have a stat evan abrams put it out i believe our crack research lead the total in this game is 35 wow i think it's one of the lowest totals in the past 20 years i'd still play that i'd still play the under yeah i mean the lowest total in college football was um i think it was the same thing it”
CAR 23, DEN 10 — Panthers beat Broncos 23-10, combined 33 points, under 35 covers (ESPN box score).
“do saints plus nine and a half for the foxhole because if you look at the like one of these”
SF 13, NO 0 — 49ers beat Saints 13-0; Saints margin -13 vs the +9.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“get a one or one and a half for the cowboys um let's talk about the new orleans since we liked them the other day at minus four we didn't know stafford was playing stafford practiced today yeah uh or practiced yesterday you said before we came on you heard he had been cleared and he will be playing this weekend. The number is now down to three. I still love the Saints. I don't care who's playing quarterback for the Rams.”
NO 27, LAR 20 — Saints beat Rams 27-20, covering -3 (ESPN box score).
“so we're going with cincy minus three and a half yeah i'm going against our boy chris [32:17] Raybon”
CIN 37, PIT 30 — Bengals beat Steelers 37-30, covering -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I'll take the Chargers plus six.”
KC 30, LAC 27 — Chiefs beat Chargers 30-27; Chargers margin -3 vs the +6 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“[34:22] uh all right let's talk about our money line round robin parlay and then we got to do some scooch [34:31] roulette my dog likes your dog your dog likes my dog and i did not like this week like last week i [34:41] feel like we had three three games that were just like good money lines we did three uh we had three [34:47] winners last week we had the commanders we had uh i know we had the vikings we had the vikings we had someone else i think pittsburgh we start off easy bears no brainer like that one of those again if you got it at three I would just take the money line there I could either see them winning this game or losing by two touchdowns [35:07] That's how the Bears have been this season, an up-and-down team. [35:11] Give me the Bears as our first leg. [35:13] Game we didn't even touch on. [35:15] A game I didn't get much info from pros about, [35:17] so I didn't really have a feel for. [35:18] I think everyone's a little scared off in the professional community [35:20] of this Giants team, but Detroit feels like a smart side, [35:24] but a smart side of the sense that I'm just going to take their money line. [35:26] I'm not even going to mess with the points here. [35:28] We're on the stinkier games this week. [35:29] So start off with the Bears. [35:31] Give me Detroit. [35:35] I know Chad wants to do it. [35:36] I can't do it. [35:37] I can't even say it, but I'll have to say it. [35:40] Colts. [35:41] Yeah, throw them in there. [35:41] Dude, we were in a mind meld right there. [35:43] You said it at the exact same time. [35:44] I knew it, though. [35:45] It's just – and you're spot on about it. [35:47] It's like teams go through different periods in the season [35:50] where they just drop games. [35:51] We've seen – we've just solved the Bills. [35:53] The Bills have dropped two games that shit, no one projecting out. [35:56] So I'm losing the Jets and then Minnesota at home. [35:58] It's just, that's wonky parts of the season. [36:01] That could be easily be the Eagles. [36:02] You're dropping a game of Washington, dropping a game of the Colts. [36:05] Give me Houston. [36:06] No brainer. [36:07] We love them at home in a bounce back spot here and top of the half. [36:10] Our big ball is bet. [36:11] Chargers outright win. [36:13] It's not our big balls bet. [36:15] Since he is our big balls bet. [36:16] You're right. [36:17] But still the Chargers, the Chargers should be in this money line parlay. [36:22] You're right. [36:23] I will.”
Moneyline round robin busts: Chicago Bears — lost to Atlanta 27-24; Detroit Lions — beat NY Giants 31-18, won; Indianapolis Colts — lost to Philadelphia 17-16; Houston Texans — lost to Washington 23-10; Los Angeles Chargers — lost to Kansas City 30-27. Three of five legs lost.
“Patriots are three-point favorites. [28:13] Simon, on Green Dot Daily this morning, [28:16] you made an incredible point about the Patriots in this line [28:20] compared to what it was two weeks ago. [28:22] I want you to do it here. [28:24] I want this to be our foxhole chat.”
NE 10, NYJ 3 — Patriots beat Jets 10-3, covering -3 (ESPN box score).
“Browns on the road at the Buffalo Bills. The Buffalo Bills, eight and a half point favorites. I won't make Matt Mitchell relive this past week. Because that was like, to not only have it happen, But everyone's still be talking about it as the game of the year. It was. You can't even turn on the television if you're a sports fan and the Bills fan. Again, the worst part of that Bills game, I think, for those fans was just the fact that they won and lost it like 10 times. And those are the worst games of experience. You keep winning games and losing. It's the same game over and over again. Don't know what's wrong with Josh. Like that game kind of falls on his shoulders there. Those turnovers, they're a real problem right now. Like he's on pace to have more turnovers than he's ever had in his career. It's not like Josh to be throwing these just reckless interceptions. I mean, that final one, how do you short arm that one? Like, again, your legs were working. It's just Josh has these little moments. These decisions, that's just not like him where last year he just rarely put himself in positions to turn the ball over, where it feels like this year he's more confident in his arm, taking bigger risk, and it's just not been working for him. So in a game that we're expecting a shit ton of snow and bad weather, I'll take the running team and Nick Chubb. It's just what the hell am I supposed to do here? I got to take the plus eight.”
BUF 31, CLE 23 — Bills beat Browns 31-23; Browns margin exactly -8, pushing the +8 line (ESPN box score).
“So, I mean, look, we can start breaking it down. Let's go to the Bears for a second [9:38] because I love the Bears at two and a half.”
DET 31, CHI 30 — Lions beat Bears 31-30; Bears lost outright, missing the -2.5 cover (ESPN box score).
“Still like the Bears. Still like the Packers. Yep. It's like the Browns, plus three and a half. Plus four, hopefully you can get that. Plus four, hopefully you can get it. For the record, I bet it three and a half because I didn't see any fours out there anymore. And the pros keep buying it. Every time it hits four, like I hit four this morning, I texted my runner, said grab that DraftKings four. I just checked now, it's already gone. So the four pops up, it's going to keep disappearing. You're probably right.”
MIA 39, CLE 17 — Dolphins beat Browns 39-17; Browns margin -22 vs the +3.5 line, busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm taking this. You're taking Denver plus two and a half. I'm taking the Steelers plus one and a half.”
PIT 20, NO 10 — Steelers beat Saints 20-10 outright, covering +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“You're taking Denver plus two and a half. I'm taking the Steelers plus one and a [35:00] half.”
PIT 20, NO 10 — Steelers beat Saints 20-10 outright, covering +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“big balls bet of the week jacksonville jaguars plus nine and a half look dude we talked about [26:34] it on tuesday it's ugly oh no we know it's the right spot”
KC 27, JAX 17 — Chiefs beat Jaguars 27-17; Jaguars margin -10 vs the +9.5 line, busts by half a point (ESPN box score).
“half. Let's do our Moneyline run, Robin. I mean, I love this week. We haven't had a good run here where the dogs they've been covering, they just haven't been winning. Let's start off with Minnesota. How can we not, if Josh Allen's out, throw them in, throw Cleveland in. Got to throw the Chargers in. I love that big number. We've seen it time and time again. The 49ers, when they lose, they lose. Like bad. Do you want to do Green Bay, Jack? I was going to say we have to do Green Bay. We do, right? Yeah, of course. Yeah, that's good. 100%. And then I think – So Minnesota, Cleveland, Denver, Green Bay, Chargers. Minnesota, Cleveland. Oh, you want to do Denver because I would do the Steelers. Yeah, it's such a short number, though. All right, so do Denver. It's plus 109 on the app. Okay Denver is that not that much better plus 116 Yeah we can do that if you want Switch out Denver throw Pittsburgh in I feel better about a home team as a dog All right, let's take Cleveland out, though. Let's take Cleveland out, though. Okay. Cleveland's out. Denver's in. Pittsburgh is in. Pittsburgh's in. So for those listening live, I know Matt is putting these in the chat right now. Minnesota. Ripping his hair out. Minnesota, Denver, Chargers, Green Bay, Pittsburgh. Yep.”
Moneyline round robin busts: Minnesota Vikings — the real Cowboys-Vikings game was NFL Week 11 (Nov 20), not Week 10, and Dallas won 40-3, so Vikings ML lost; Denver Broncos — Denver's actual Week 10 opponent was Tennessee (not Las Vegas as labeled), and Denver lost 17-10, so Broncos ML lost; Los Angeles Chargers — 49ers beat Chargers 22-16, Chargers ML lost; Green Bay Packers — Packers beat Cowboys 31-28 in OT, Packers ML won; Pittsburgh Steelers — Steelers beat Saints 20-10, Steelers ML won. With Vikings, Broncos, and Chargers all losing, the round robin busts.
“The pick I gave out was the Bears minus [25:56] two and a half.”
30-31 — Lions beat Bears 31-30; Chicago lost by 1, failing to cover -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“So that's another pass. The Cowboys are visiting the Green Bay Packers and the Packers right now are five and a half point underdogs. The biggest home underdog Aaron Rodgers has been since 2013. You hear that, Chad? I didn't hear anything. Those are the bullets flying above our heads as we hop down into a foxhole. We're going to the foxhole on the Green Bay Packers. Green Bay Packers.”
28-31 — Packers beat Cowboys 31-28 in overtime, covering +5.5 with the outright win (ESPN box score).
“Chargers plus seven is an autoplay.”
16-22 — 49ers beat Chargers 22-16; Los Angeles lost by 6, covering +7 (ESPN box score).
“titans plus 12 and a half is our big balls bed of the week”
20-17 — Chiefs beat Titans 20-17 in overtime; Tennessee lost by 3, comfortably within +12.5, so Titans covered (ESPN box score).
“Bears five point underdogs at home against the visiting Dolphins. We don't have a choice. Another game where we have to do it. We have to take the Bears. I love what I've been seeing from the Bears since the bye.”
35-32 — Dolphins beat Bears 35-32; Chicago lost by 3, covering +5 (ESPN box score).
“road 12 and a half points uh underdogs against the kansas city chiefs got a text from a buddy called Snoop, Snoopy, the dog, Tennessee. He said, we got to take Tennessee this week. I said, me'll talk about it. I don't know what to do. Like, I'd hear more from people why they love Tennessee. When I first saw this number, I liked Tennessee and the fact that it's a huge number for the Chiefs at home. Historically, they let teams hang in this. I mean, I can even all the time in my head, I can think of Jordan Love's game with Green Bay. Like, that game, Jordan Love might have completed five passes. They somehow covered the 11-half spread, wherever it was that Green Bay was. I don't know what to do. Like the Chiefs historically don't perform well as big favorites. It's usually a spot you go the other way. So the fact that a pro text me mid-show that we need to talk about Tennessee, you know, makes me know where the pros are at. I'm not going to be surprised hearing the sharp calls. A lot of pros are going to be on Tennessee. I don't know. Don't feel comfortable doing it. So maybe that's even more reason I'm doing it because Malik just could not move the ball in Houston. Houston's defense is much worse than this Chiefs defense's. And this is Arrowhead, right? So it's a lot to put on a rookie QB. Maybe it's just the fact that it's Derrick Henry. King Henry right now is looking like the best running back in football doing it all. Maybe Christian McCaffrey. I shouldn't say that. Man, that's a tough one, Chad. What are you thinking with this one? Are we going Tennessee here? Yeah, we're totally going with Tennessee here. You just mentioned, by the way, you didn't want to pull the trigger on Tampa to win the NFC South. So again Simon is talking about on Green Dot Daily this morning we talked about the picks that we were looking at And then we talked about at this point in the year in the NFC South the Falcons are in first the Bucs are in second And in the NFC what was the other division It was the NFC West. The Seahawks were in first and the Niners were in second. So we're talking about like if you're buying futures on the division, who do you buy? We both wanted to hold on the Bucs and buy the Niners. But... I think I saw – I looked at this this morning and thinking about today's events and was like, yeah, I think we're going to bet the Titans. Yeah. Again, it just feels like a situational play and a huge number. You've seen Vrabel get his team up for these kind of games. Yeah. The defense just plays for him in these spots. So we could have pie in our face, me and Chad, and we're down 28-0, and there's zero chance that Tennessee could come back in a game like that. But what we're hoping for is a 13-10 at half or something like that, just a game that's sloppy and tennis. You can keep close and that's the game that they're going to try to play. So big number already got pros texting me about during a live show. It's probably a smart move. So I'll just shut up and agree with Chad and take that number.”
20-17 — Chiefs beat Titans 20-17 in overtime; Tennessee lost by 3, comfortably within +12.5, so Titans covered (ESPN box score).
“Executive decision from me is Lions plus three and a half.”
DET 27, MIA 31 — Dolphins beat Lions 31-27; Detroit +3.5 busts, margin -4 (ESPN).
“no no so I love the Texans at plus two and a half here as you were talking hoping to get the three though right the public will keep hammering uh Tennessee so if me check I get three in the contest three and a half that'd be amazing i got no issue taking my two and a half though well listen as as you were talking um i went into the action network app i clicked on this game i used fandua quick slip and made the bet as you were talking it took me about 13 seconds it was that easy what number i took it at two and a half two and a half i'm okay with taking it at two and a half”
HOU 10, TEN 17 — Titans beat Texans 17-10; Houston +2.5 busts, margin -7 (ESPN).
“that I have completely fallen in love with over the past few days. And we talked about it on the podcast earlier this week. You asked my opinion. I didn't love it, but I felt like we had to do it. The Arizona Cardinals. And the more I look at this, I was doing some research this morning. On my own, I was doing the research. And then I listened to Raybon and Stucky on the Action Network podcast, and they confirmed it for me. This is a different team with DeAndre Hopkins. And I said this the other day. This team, Kyler Murray, 17 and 10 with DeAndre Hopkins, 6-13 and 1 without him. Hopkins comes back, goes for 10, 103 last week. They're playing a Minnesota team that I still think is a bit of a fraud and has been getting lucky. And their defense is dreadful. Defense is the last three games. They've had fewer yards per play than the team they played, which to me shows the other team has actually played better. They've gotten good bounces. There's a regression. they are terrible at covering a number one receiver everything to me lines up and i will say this i got a theory we're about to enter november cliff kingsbury usually turns into the worst coach in the nfl in november what if we're living in a bizarro cliff kingsbury universe where because he's getting deandre hopkins back and because the cardinals were so bad early in the year, the Cardinals actually become good. So I like the Cardinals plus four. Love them. Love them in the contest. Love them in the contest.”
MIN 34, ARI 26 — Vikings beat Cardinals 34-26; Arizona +4 busts, margin -8 (ESPN).
“Moneyline, round robin, parlay. I mean, obviously we're going with the lions. I think we got to go with the Texans Washington yeah can we get a big dog that's a good because that was nice last week obviously it didn't Only hit on the one, the Seahawks. But if Houston would have came through, that would have been a really nice pairing. You throw the Jets in there? Jets, Lions, Texans, Washington, and the Jets. I know Matt Mitchell is putting this all into the chat for the live listeners right now. It pains me to do it, but they're the only team I could see of all the big favorites get upset. Eagles. I could just see this scenario that I'm sleepwalking in this game, even though, again, I'm taking the Eagles. Why would we not put the Cardinals in there instead of the Eagles? We can. That's fair. I'm just trying to get a big dog because all these dogs are little. Like, I like having one big guy in there because that really juices the odds. But this is a little dog week. Like, there's no really big dogs. Because I know we didn't talk about, like, another survivor play is the Cowboys, obviously, against the Bears. So, like, there's no way I'm picking the Bears that went out right. There's no world I picked Green Bay that went out right. Yeah, they're just not – there's no really good big dogs this week. um lions texans washington jets cards that's what i think we should do all right lions texans washington jets cards”
Week 8 underdog moneyline round robin: Lions lost (Dolphins 31-27), Texans lost (Titans 17-10), Commanders won (17-16 over Colts), Jets lost (Patriots 22-17), Cardinals lost (Vikings 34-26); only one of five legs wins so the parlay busts (ESPN).
“Lions plus three and a half on FanDuel. [41:08] I'm going to say it right now. [41:10] Executive decision.”
DET 27, MIA 31 — Dolphins beat Lions 31-27; Detroit +3.5 busts, margin -4 (ESPN).
“I clicked on Washington plus five and a half,”
WSH 23, GB 21 — Commanders beat Packers 23-21; Washington +5.5 covers (ESPN).
“Yeah. We're going to put in the Falcons. I didn't realize people said we went three and two last week. Let's go. Falcons. We're going to put in there. Seattle. Yep. Niners. Yep. Washington. Yep. And then who else? Nope. There's a bunch of different avenues. We could go here. Like every orifice in my body. You already said Houston, right? I didn't say Houston. I said Atlanta, Seattle, Niners, Washington. Houston jumps out just because, again, who's Vegas be catching that many points. Like we have to take the value on that one. And then just because of injury report and no one else is doing it. Like I know no one else is doing this. Cleveland's money line against a team in Baltimore that has just melted against so many teams in this fourth quarter. Like it just jumped out. So that's terrible. Let's put Houston in. All right. Houston, Houston over the Browns. That's fair. All right. Money line, Ron Robin, Atlanta, Seattle, Niners, Washington, Houston.”
Week 7 moneyline round robin: Falcons lost (Bengals 35-17), Seahawks won (37-23 over Chargers), 49ers lost (Chiefs 44-23), Commanders won (23-21 over Packers), Texans lost (Raiders 38-20); two of five legs win so the parlay busts (ESPN).
“It's going to be an ugly game. So give me the Cardinals.”
ARI 42, NO 34 — Cardinals beat Saints 42-34; Arizona Cardinals moneyline covers (ESPN).
“two weeks back and getting healthier give me the saints plus two that's it i don't need anxiety”
CIN 30, NO 26 — Bengals beat Saints 30-26; New Orleans +2 busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“simon says when it was atlanta plus five and a half and the exact decision by me was Cleveland minus three.”
NE 38, CLE 15 — Patriots beat Browns 38-15; Cleveland -2.5 busts badly (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“It now up to six in some places We both bet it Eagles minus four and a half”
PHI 26, DAL 17 — Eagles beat Cowboys 26-17; Philadelphia -4.5 covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“I bet the dolphins plus three and a half.”
MIN 24, MIA 16 — Vikings beat Dolphins 24-16; Miami +3.5 busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“It is, it is by definition we have to do, you got to hold your nose. You got to buy low, you got to sack up and you got to bet the Steelers a plus eight and a half.”
PIT 20, TB 18 — Steelers beat Buccaneers 20-18; Pittsburgh +8.5 covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“it was taking a plus three with the chiefs at home uh i should remind people that our foxhole bet”
BUF 24, KC 20 — Bills beat Chiefs 24-20; Kansas City +3 busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“The second half of this year in games the Bears have been outstanding And they proved it again this past week This game opened at one I bet the Bears at minus one”
WSH 12, CHI 7 — Commanders beat Bears 12-7; Chicago -1 busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“We move on Yeah All right Bengals two favorites on the road at the saints the line has moved up the bangles getting everything all the money all the tickets look i think i'm going to this foxhole chef we're going with the saints right i mean of course you know me all right let's climb down into the foxhole because the saints are the side here yeah like Of course you take the Saints. No one's going to want it that's listening to the show. Like, if I could have made this our big balls, I would have. Because it's Tuesday. Foxhole. Jump on in. We're going to the Foxhole. New Orleans Saints plus two. No brainer. As soon as this line came out, I knew I was going to be on it.”
CIN 30, NO 26 — Bengals beat Saints 30-26; New Orleans +2 busts (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Chad Millman is going to call an exact decision on the Browns. They are three-point favorites at home against the Patriots. Chad Millman got them at two and a half on Sunday night because he was looking at the Action Network app. He saw that the line, the juice was at minus 120. He knew it would be moving soon. He got the two and a half. The rest of you, I would still take the three. Exact decision. The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Now you have your orders. Execute them. Executive decision. Exec decision. Go with the Brownies. The Brownies did it for me last week against the Chargers. Going to do it for me this week against the Patriots. Right now, betting tickets on the Patriots. Money. The pros are on the Browns. Give it to me.”
NE 38, CLE 15 — Patriots beat Browns 38-15; Cleveland -2.5 busts badly (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Cowboys visiting the Eagles. You can get the Eagles at four and a half point favorites right now. It's a fucking buy for me. Yeah, no brainer.”
PHI 26, DAL 17 — Eagles beat Cowboys 26-17; Philadelphia -4.5 covers (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“taking Miami. I'm going minus three and a half. I am all in. So Chad minus three and a half Miami.”
NYJ 40, MIA 17 — Jets beat Dolphins 40-17; Miami -3.5 busts (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“What happened in the game How did it play out betting wise And then a couple of games they both leaning towards plus a preview of the Monday night game And Brandon had this take on the Dolphins game and the Dolphins minus three and about sort of the comparison of this line versus what it was even a week before And then I remembered watching Teddy Bridgewater and thinking about how bad the Jets are and that they would be a little bit overvalued because they beat the Steelers on the road. And it made sense to me. So I hit the Dolphins minus three and I love it. Yeah. I don't care if me and Jerry stepped in. I'll be on it too.”
NYJ 40, MIA 17 — Jets beat Dolphins 40-17; Miami -3 busts (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“I got the Falcons at eight and a half on Sunday night.”
TB 21, ATL 15 — Buccaneers beat Falcons 21-15; Atlanta +8.5 covers (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“Seattle plus five and a half, which right now is getting 64% of the bets and 87% of the money. Yeah, I bet it too. I don't care. We're walking in it together, brother.”
NO 39, SEA 32 — Saints beat Seahawks 39-32; Seattle +5.5 busts (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“literally the very first bet I made on Sunday night Browns plus three put it on the board”
LAC 30, CLE 28 — Chargers beat Browns 30-28; Cleveland +3 covers (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“Survivor, we're taking the Bills.”
BUF 38, PIT 3 — Bills beat Steelers 38-3; Buffalo moneyline wins (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“Personally, Simon, I still like the Ravens in this spot at plus three.”
BUF 23, BAL 20 — Bills beat Ravens 23-20 (ESPN); Ravens +3 pushes exactly.
“ultimate daily nutritional insurance. I think the Texans are a better big balls, better the week. It's a bigger pro Joe game. The line opened at seven. It's moved to five and a half. I like the edge for the Texans. Rashawn Slater being out for the Chargers. Joey Bosa being out for the Chargers. Justin Herbert. It's at home. You're getting a pretty decent sized home dog. Damian Pierce should dominate them on the ground too. They're running back for Houston. This is a really great matchup for him as well. What do we think of making the Texans our big balls better the week? Love it. Let's lock it up.”
LAC 34, HOU 24 — Chargers beat Texans 34-24 (ESPN); Texans +5.5 busts, losing by 10.
“Dolphins at Cincy Thursday night. Game opened. Bengals one and a half. it's now up to three and a half full disclosure in the app i bet it's sunday night at two and a half it moved within five minutes bet the bangles what say you”
CIN 27, MIA 15 — Bengals beat Dolphins 27-15 (ESPN); Bengals -2.5 covers, winning by 12.
“but this Vikings number stinks like I bet it too when I saw it because it's like what the hell this is gonna go to three here we are a day and a half later it's still it's still a two and a half so I have no idea what the books think like they they really do believe in the Saints team I think they're hot garbage like I don't know why they haven't adjusted on them give me three and a half four I start thinking Saints two and a half no brainer take the Vikings Hey, by the way, it is two and a half. And right now, about 85% of the money is on the Vikings. It just doesn't make any sense. We're definitely stepping in it. You think so? Yeah. I mean, again, the books could just be hanging a crap number, but if reverse primetime spot for Kirk Cousins, maybe that's what they're banking on. He'll stink it up here, but I don't get it. I just don't see how the, the, in what world the Saints offense with a broken Jameis can keep up with this Vikings offense. Like the Vikings, they're a really talented team. And so to me, it's just an interesting number. It's like the books are really, again, taking a position on the Saints team. They're 0-3. So I don't really know why they're backing them like this. All right. Well, I would love to take this in the contest. It does not concern me at all. I'm getting the better team against a coach I don't believe in, a quarterback who's playing with a broken back, literally, an offense that seems like Alvin Kamara has lost his mojo and Mark Ingram is the bulk of the carries, is like the guy they're counting. and the most in the backfield at 85 years old. I just think this Vikings team is better. I'm getting the better team in a neutral field for less than a field goal. Come on, man.”
MIN 28, NO 25 — Vikings beat Saints 28-25 in London (ESPN); Vikings -2.5 covers, winning by 3.
“Ravens plus three and a half.”
BUF 23, BAL 20 — Bills beat Ravens 23-20 (ESPN); Ravens +3.5 covers, losing by only 3.
“and when I saw this game on Sunday night, I saw the Jags plus seven and I'm like, that doesn't make any sense to me. I didn't have the courage to better in the moment. Like I wanted to look a little bit deeper. I saw it move to six and a half and immediately took it because, and I'll say right now, this is my executive decision. Executive decision, Chad Millman is proud of himself.”
PHI 29, JAX 21 — Eagles beat Jaguars 29-21 (ESPN); Jaguars +6.5 busts, losing by 8.
“I not going to lie to you but we it like we talked about earlier You don want to take it because it was like a little bit of a pick that they have to win And I I come to terms with it I backing Atlanta to win this game against Seattle”
ATL 27, SEA 23 — Falcons beat Seahawks 27-23 (ESPN); Falcons moneyline wins.
“Going back to the well. Jacksonville Jaguars plus seven.”
JAX 38, LAC 10 — Jaguars beat Chargers 38-10 (ESPN); Jaguars +7 covers easily.
“Well, I have now bet the Patriots plus two and a half.”
BAL 37, NE 26 — Ravens beat Patriots 37-26 (ESPN); Patriots +2.5 busts, losing by 11.
“Steelers Browns open two and a half this Thursday night football. Got bet up to five and a half. Now it's four and a half. I will tell you, I bet the Steelers at five and a half. That was just too big of an adjustment made no sense for me for this number to be at five and a half 72 percent of the money on the Steelers right now”
CLE 29, PIT 17 — Browns beat Steelers 29-17 in Week 3 Thursday Night Football (ESPN); Steelers +5.5 busts, losing by 12.
“Here's another interesting one. John Harbaugh in his career is the best first half ROI as a coach in his career Lamar Jackson the last five years first half most profitable QB to bet in the first half All that said Ravens are three favorites on the road against the Patriots I feel like the Patriots are not a very good team You know what to do, though. There's only one play here, Chad. We make this bet almost nine out of ten times. The numbers back it up, too, but we play the Patriots here every time. It's, again, Belichick at home is a dog against a team that something's not right there, clearly. Like the Jets were actually moving the ball on this Baltimore team. So if the Ravens are down four cornerbacks again, that's a major issue. Like Mack Jones has looked pedestrian. This could be the cure he needs, a team that's given up the most receiving yards to anyone else in football. So yeah, too much respect for a Ravens team that doesn't deserve the respect right now. I'm with you. Patriots stink, but I take this plus three every time.”
BAL 37, NE 26 — Ravens beat Patriots 37-26 (ESPN); Patriots +3 busts, losing by 11.
“I bet the Colts plus seven this morning.”
IND 20, KC 17 — Colts beat Chiefs 20-17 (ESPN); Colts +7 covers easily.
“no uh the lions are visiting the vikings i don't know why this number is so big right now the lions are six point underdogs in this game the money and the tickets are moving in their direction so The line has moved down from six and a half. Kirk Cousins was terrible on Monday Night Football, which is what we expect. The Lions either can't stop anybody or are the greatest offensive team since the 1982 San Diego Chargers. Dan Campbell continues to be both lovable and sneaky, sneaky smart. Lions plus six, what say you? I like new coming in. I feel like the Vikings are probably gonna be an autoplay for me. Just coming in off the fact that everything you just said like we all love the lines They just had back home games now they going on the road to play divisional foe that just lost that we know one o on a sunday against a divisional team you just take kirk here so to me i gonna work this week trying to convince chad and make this one of our five but this is one of my favorite favorites this week um they had all the opportunity in the world right against the eagles they had a blocked field goal. They had a turnover in their red zone. Like it just wasn't their night. Every little thing they could go wrong went wrong and Kirk looked horrible. You've seen this now 10 times out of Kirk, right? He's doing 10 on Monday night football. Maybe I'll reach out to Evan and try to get the info on what his record is after that Monday night game, but it's gotta be good. Like this is the, this is the buying low on Kirk. And this is where we want to be with Kirk, right? This always works out for me and Chad buying low on Kirk at home on a Sunday. I mean, I want to be all in on the Lions because this is a big deal, right? This would flip, to me, their divisional odds. If the Lions win this game, I think there would be even odds right now to win this division. Obviously, Green Bay would still be at the top. But yeah, huge game for the Lions. I just can't get behind it. It's just like, I get it. They've played well. They had to come back on the Eagles, who looked like world beaters. But I don't think the Vikings are as bad as people perceived it. They just had a really bad night on Monday night against the Eagles. How do you have that? What's your number on this game? Seven. So like, I thought it was good at seven. Like that made sense to me. The fact that dropped a point makes even more sense, right? Like literally what we just saw last night, who's going to back Kirk. There's just a few of us out here. That's going to be like, no, like this is what Kirk does. This is when you want to back Kirk. But I think the public just forgets that they're just so pissed off at him. Cause it's like, you suck Kirk. This is why we all hate you. Or it's like, he's not terrible. He's just average. He's never going to be above average. He just is what he is. I don't know why you feel like you'd have to convince me of that. Well, I just figured you'd be on Lions because we love the Lions. Like we love the Lions. And this is a good number. It's six, six and a half. Listen to me, man. I'm a professional. Okay. I don't bet the emotions. I bet what the right side is. And right now I think you're getting a buy low, sell high spot on the Vikings and the Lions. foxhole on the vikings foxhole it let climb down into the foxhole minnesota vikings because the money did you say the money and the tickets are on Detroit Yeah So yeah Foxhole Foxhole Minnesota Vikings I love it. I freaking love that bet. Let's go, baby.”
MIN 28, DET 24 — Vikings beat Lions 28-24 (ESPN); Vikings -6 busts, winning by only 4.
“We still got to give people an exact decision and a Simon Says So we got some room to maneuver here putting a pin in the bills dolphin bangles minus four and a half against the jets This line has moved down. I think the look ahead line on this game was seven. So my theory on this, again, I've already bet the bangles at minus four and a half.”
CIN 27, NYJ 12 — Bengals beat Jets 27-12 (ESPN); Bengals -4.5 covers, winning by 15.
“I played the Jaguars at plus seven.”
JAX 38, LAC 10 — Jaguars beat Chargers 38-10 (ESPN); Jaguars +7 covers easily.
“We're putting right now Panthers and Saints in there. I think we both feel good about that. But we got some other teams, right? So Jags plus four and a half. We talked a lot about the Jags. They're at home, divisional home dog against a Colts team that the past six, seven years, I forgot, they haven't won in Jacksonville. We both believe the Jags are better than what they showed on Sunday in that they just missed some plays. They were a young team, missed some plays, and were probably amped. I don't think that happens again. And I just don't think the Colts are good enough to be more than a field goal favorite on the road. Bang it. Jacks plus four and a half. Boom. And I hate it. This is probably definitely going to be in our contest. We just have to play it.”
JAX 24, IND 0 — Jaguars beat Colts 24-0; Jaguars covered the +4.5 spread by winning outright (ESPN scoreboard).
“Foxhole, Saints plus three.”
TB 20, NO 10 — Buccaneers beat Saints 20-10; Saints lost by 10, busting the +3 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“I bet the Jags Sunday night at plus four and a half.”
JAX 24, IND 0 — Jaguars beat Colts 24-0; Jaguars covered the +4.5 spread by winning outright (ESPN scoreboard).
“While you were talking, I went into the action app, hit 49ers minus nine and a half minus 110.”
SF 27, SEA 7 — 49ers beat Seahawks 27-7; 49ers covered the -9.5 spread with a 20-point margin (ESPN scoreboard).
“Saints, two and a half point home dogs. Of course, you got to play it. If you can get a three, that's great. Bets on the Bucs, money on the Saints, pros, Joes, Give me the Saints.”
TB 20, NO 10 — Buccaneers beat Saints 20-10; Saints lost by 10, busting the +3 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“So the Giants had no business winning this game and they will be worse at home because that's what Danny Dimes does. Panthers plus two and a half. We've just added it to the list.”
NYG 19, CAR 16 — Giants beat Panthers 19-16; Panthers lost by 3, busting the +2.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“The Titans are 10-point underdogs. This number has popped. This is an inflation station line to me. It's ugly to play it, but you kind of have to. primetime game one team got embarrassed the other team looked like their shit don't stink everyone's all in on the bills where i go back and watch the film and i saw josh allen look flustered had a bunch of turnovers had a bunch of under throws on his deep balls that worked out and the biggest advantage for them that rams game was the rams could not keep on the field so by the second half the rams defense was shot like josh allen mean mean mean chad both agreed we think he's the best athlete, best player right now in football just because of what he can do. He's bigger, faster, stronger than everybody, and has one of the best arms in football, and is very accurate. So, scared because Josh Allen didn't have a good game, and his team won by, I don't even know what the final score was, it would have been by 24. It's just, man, this Bills team is so good, but this is going to be our lives, Chad. All season, we're going to be taking the value on the dog, and a dog against the Bills is always going to be overvalued. Like, this number has bumped up probably three points just because the Titans laid such a bad egg and the bills look like world beaters so yeah i wish i could make it one of our five maybe i'll get pushed into it but there's a different game on monday that i like a little more um oh boy so to me it's it's tough where i i just love the fact we're getting so many points but josh allen scares the shit out of me man like i hated that experience on thursday he's just so good every time he needs a first down he gets either run or gabe davis or stefan digs man it's Just, man, bills are so complete. Well, look, let's talk about, I'm going to bet the Titans, but it doesn't have to be part of our five.”
BUF 41, TEN 7 — Bills beat Titans 41-7; Titans lost by 34, busting the +10 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“um but right now we like the lions plus four atlanta plus five and a half houston plus seven”
PHI 38, DET 35 — Eagles beat Lions 38-35; Lions lost by 3, covering the +4 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“i'm just busting your balls um so let's talk about uh the other one that we were really into so by the way i'm going to make atlanta plus five and a half that's in the fave five yeah no brainer 100 100%. We're in. We're in.”
NO 27, ATL 26 — Saints beat Falcons 27-26; Falcons lost by 1, covering the +5.5 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“But definitely Lions plus four.”
PHI 38, DET 35 — Eagles beat Lions 38-35; Lions lost by 3, covering the +4 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“Give me the Texans here. I like him at seven. Probably the lowest I like him,”
IND 20, HOU 20 — Colts and Texans tied 20-20 in OT; Texans covered the +7 spread (ESPN scoreboard).
“who could potentially be a generational talent, is primed for a massive leap, not dissimilar than what Joe Burrow did last year. It happens. It happens all the time. I got Trevor Lawrence plus at 70 to one to lead the league in passing touchdowns. We both like the Jags as longish”
Patrick Mahomes led the NFL with 41 passing touchdowns in the 2022 season; Trevor Lawrence did not lead the league (ESPN season passing stats).
“The Niners right now, plus 750 to win the NFC on FanDuel.”
Philadelphia 31, San Francisco 7 — The 49ers lost the NFC Championship 31-7 to the Philadelphia Eagles; San Francisco did not win the NFC.
“Personally, my favorite NFL bet right now is the Atlanta Falcons over their win total of four and a half this season.”
Falcons finished the 2022 regular season 7-10, clearing the over 4.5 wins total (ESPN standings). (Falcons: 7-10)
“Give me lines plus four.”
DET 35, PHI 38 — Eagles beat the Lions 38-35 in Week 1 (Sept 11, 2022); Lions lost by 3, covering the +4 spread (ESPN game log).
“I mean, this is making me want to bet the Steelers over seven and a half right now. And by the way, it's minus one Oh five. So not a bad price either. All right. So Cleveland Browns,”
Steelers finished the 2022 regular season 9-8, clearing the over 7.5 wins total (ESPN standings). (Steelers: 9-8)
“We're going Bears under six and a half wins.”
Bears finished the 2022 regular season 3-14, staying under the 6.5-win total (ESPN standings). (Bears: 3-14)
“Stephen Curry plus 430 at FanDuel to lead the series in points and threes. [47:21] That to me is my favorite sort of exotic.”
Curry led all players in the 2022 NBA Finals with 187 total points (31.2 ppg) and 31 made threes across the 6 games, well ahead of any Celtics scorer (ESPN game log).
“Give me the Falcons plus three and a half against the Saints.”
27-26 — Saints beat the Falcons 27-26 in Week 1 2022; Atlanta +3.5 covered, losing by just 1 (ESPN box score).
“On Thursday, I'm going with the San [26:32] Diego State Aztecs playing two and a half against Creighton as my favorite bet”
72-69 — Creighton beat San Diego State 72-69 in OT; SDSU lost outright, so -2.5 spread busts (ESPN).
“We like the Bengals plus four. You're betting the first half Rams minus [27:23] three You betting the Bengals adjusted line minus two and a half I already bet the Bengals plus four”
CIN 20, LAR 23 — Rams beat Bengals 23-20 (CIN margin -3); Cincinnati Bengals +4 covers (ESPN box score).
“This is a terrible number at 5.5. I jumped on that very early. So I think you got to take that. And my second favorite one is Samaje Perine, under 14 and a half. combined rushing and receiving yards. So Piran, before going over last week on that long screen touchdown, he'd been under this number in five straight games. He's likely going to need three touch opportunities to get there because he averages under four yards a carry, about seven yards per catch. So, he's had just one, more than one touch just once in the three postseason games. He really hasn't been a big factor. And now we're talking about the Super Bowl. He'd be lucky to get multiple touches in this game. And even if he catches multiple passes, which is unlikely because his receptions prop is one and a half, you know, he would need, he would probably still need a third touch to go over that. and his most likely outcome is probably one touch. So I think this number is way too high. And just again, based on the recency bias of him scoring that long screen pass touchdown that kind of inflated his average, but we're looking for the median here. And I think his median is actually in the single digits in terms of his scrimmage odds. So Samadji Piran under 14 and a half rushing and receiving and Matthew Stafford under five and a half rushing. I thought you said something really interesting in the podcast that you and Kroener did. Again, go check it out. Action Network Podcast, Propapalooza. You talked about how the Bengals game plan might only have one great play for him in there and they might have used it already. Yeah, so if you watch the AFC Championship game, you notice Piran got that screen pass touchdown, which was well-designed. Didn't mean for it to go for a touchdown, Honestly, it was more like one of those plays that you're hoping gets you, you know, a good chunk. But he took it all away. And then he had another play that actually could have gone for a touchdown, but he ran the wrong route. And so that was later. So, you know, that's before that, again, he had it had he'd done nothing for five games straight. So they use like they had these two plays drawn up for him to kind of catch the Chiefs off guard, you know, because when Mixon comes out, it's usually OK. We don't have to worry about whoever's in the backfield. We got to worry about Chase and Higgins and Boyd. and Uzoma. So it's like they they they kind of threw everything they had in terms of the Samadji Pirine tank out in that Chiefs game. I wouldn't be surprised if this dude like he's he's liable not to play a snap in this game. All right. In the spirit of Convince Me, which is the show that the three of us do Sunday mornings, 11 a.m. Eastern at Action Network HQ. That is the place where everybody who's been listening to favorites knows you can get our thoughts and insights on lines as they are changing in real time That where everything up to the minute On that show each of you is usually tasked with having to convince me of what bet I going to take, whether it's a side, a total, player, prop, whatever. You've got to convince me of everything. I've already bet Samaji Piran. I bet him under 14 and a half because that was available.”
Samaje Perine finished with 0 rushing and 0 receiving yards, well under the 14.5 combined line (ESPN box score). (Samaje Perine: 0 rushing + 0 receiving yards)
“I already bet Cooper Cup over 28 and a half.”
Cooper Kupp's longest reception in Super Bowl LVI was 22 yards, under the 28.5 line (ESPN box score). (Cooper Kupp: 22-yard long reception)
“I already bet Cooper Cup over 28 and a half. I already bet Kevin Huber over 52 and a half [42:52] longest punt.”
Kevin Huber's longest punt was 54 yards on 6 punts, over the 52.5 line (ESPN box score). (Kevin Huber: 54-yard long punt (6 punts))
“take, whether it's a side, a total, player, prop, whatever. You've got to convince me of everything. I've already bet Samaji Piran. I bet him under 14 and a half because that was available. I already bet Cooper Cup over 28 and a half. I already bet Kevin Huber over 52 and a half longest punt. I'm going to bet Tee Higgins over 69 and a half. I'll probably bet him MVP. Simon, on the show, Raybon's MO all season has been, I'm going to name the ugliest prop I can name to try to get Chad to bet it. He just named Matthew Stafford under five and a half, Samaji Pirine under 14, under 15 and a half total receiving yards or total rushing and receiving yards as a professional better you hear something like Matthew Stafford under five and a half yards to me that just feels so I know what Raybon is saying about the value and the odds that's one broken play in a game where everything can go haywire every second because everyone's nerves are so frayed yeah and but Chris is coming from it from a volume better standpoint where it's like if he loses this one on the prop he'll get it back down the road just because it eventually evens out so that that to me is scary as hell though like you just said he just has one broken play he takes it 20 yards you're just like all right I just need a couple big sacks and that's over but I like it just because he's taking advantage of what he just talked about the public is betting that number up because Stafford's been running the ball last couple weeks so to me he's playing that smart he's getting a good value on a good number let me just mention too um you know the Rams are the favorite in this game I'm not saying that like they're the best value on the spread but did a favorite in this game so matthew stafford could get like a six seven yard scramble uh three nail downs negates that right and that's what i was gonna say like famously patrick mahomes a couple years ago his play his rushing prop was like 29 and a half or something like that crooner i don't know if you remember the exact number i had yeah i had patrick homes under 29 and a half rushing yards and he had it he was about like 40 yeah he was over four i think He was at 40 feet. So he had three kneel downs that equated to like minus 15 yards. Cause he took, he was trying to run the clock as well. So he ran backwards and kneeled down for like minus 10 yards at the clip It was the most amazing win I ever had It honestly was one of the best wins I had it too And I kept watching I like am I winning this right now Kerner, I'm giving you one last chance to give me one smash it right now player prop. Oh, man. So I have a few rushing props, but this one I love. It's Ja'Marr Chase will have more rushing yards than Cooper Cup. it was minus 140 but it's already been bet up to minus 160 I think it should be closer to minus 230 but you know the Bengals have been giving Chase rush attempts in each of their three playoff games um it makes sense you know if they're struggling to get him the ball they get the ball in his hand so they have some design rush attempts whereas Cooper Cup I mean it's easy enough for him to get targets like he gets enough targets and receptions the game they don't really give him design carries so Cup only has two rush attempts all season that went for two yards or more whereas Chase has seven and four of those have come in the playoffs. So there's a chance neither one gets a rush temp and this, this bets avoid, but I have this being closer to 70% chance. So like I said, this should be closer to, you know, minus two 30. So I love the value we're getting at minus one 60 here. All right. We got Ja'Marr Chase, more rushing yards than Cooper cup. We've got Kevin Kuber over 52 and a half for max punting yards. We've got Cooper Cup over 28 and a half for longest reception. We've got Samaji Pirine under 15 and a half receiving and rushing yards. Matthew Stafford under five and a half rushing yards. We've got Tee Higgins over 69 and a half receiving yards.”
Tee Higgins finished with 100 receiving yards, over the 69.5 line (ESPN box score). (Tee Higgins: 100 receiving yards)
“Immediately got that up to four I have bet the Bengals plus four The money is currently coming in on Rams and the bets”
CIN 20, LAR 23 — Rams beat Bengals 23-20 (CIN margin -3); Cincinnati Bengals +4 covers (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Bengals at seven and a half.”
27-24 — Bengals beat Chiefs 27-24 in OT (AFC Championship); Cincinnati won outright, so Bengals +7.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“So I'm cool with taking the chiefs now at this seven.”
27-24 — Bengals beat Chiefs 27-24 in OT (AFC Championship); Kansas City lost outright, so Chiefs -7 busts (ESPN box score).
“out of the gate first game we loved Tennessee at minus three and a half nothing I have heard or seen since then makes me disagree with that”
19-16 — Bengals won 19-16 at Tennessee (Divisional Round); Titans lost outright, so Titans -3.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“How is it that the big balls bed of the week is one of the best teams of this generation? I don't know. How are we alone? How are we in a fucking foxhole? I don't know. But we are with the Kansas City Chiefs minus two, minus one and a half against the Buffalo Bills. my man all right tennessee minus three and a half chiefs minus two niners plus six rams plus three”
36-42 — Chiefs beat Bills 42-36 in OT (Divisional Round); Chiefs margin +6 covers -2 (ESPN box score).
“So it's scary, Chad, but I'm doing it, buddy. I believe in this Rams team. I'm taking that number. It also scary when you do this Look I like the Titans I like the Chiefs I like the Rams You know it not going to be another weekend where it sort of predominantly favorites And so it just scary to think are we on every wrong side Like is it going to be the Bengals and the Bucks and the Bills? And then we haven't talked about the Packers and the Niners yet, but I like the Rams here too. I bet the Rams, I'll put it in the Action Network app. Oh man. You could argue every week you need the bounces to go your way this is the like all these teams are so close again the action network keeps tweeting out this is the shortest lines all combined ever since what 1988 like this is this is one of the best divisional rounds we've had in a long time just max competitive edges on both teams so you're dead on chad like we're gonna need bounces to go our way to for us to win and cover these numbers like four no this week that's just pure luck like yeah i could act like I have all the skill in the world. No, that's pure luck if you're going 4-0 this week because all these teams match up so well with one another. The stat that you're referring to is this weekend, the combined total for the point spreads in all four games is below 14, which is the first time that's happened. I love the under. I know a bunch of professionals. They really like the under in this matchup between the Rams. And we've seen what this Rams defense can do. They shut down that Cardinals team like it was nothing last week. Obviously, they're not going to do that against Tom Brady, but with Matthew Stafford shakiness and Tom Brady going up against a much better defense than that Eagles team, again, I don't think they're going to be in a lot of short fields against this Rams team, hopefully, with Stafford. So I like them. I'm with the pros on that. Right now it's sitting at 48.5, 49. I'd take this down to 47. So that's a good number taking that under. All right, last game on the board. San Francisco 49ers visiting the Green Bay Packers. The Niners are six point underdogs. You had alluded to the other day conversations that are happening about Jimmy G's health. There hasn't been anything official that's come out, but there still continues to be a lot of chatter about how healthy he is. Not to the point that Trey Lance is going to play, just sort of his ability to execute, which is making me very anxious about betting the Niners a plus six. I'll retweet a clip out. He practiced yesterday. Jimmy had looked like he had really good zip on the ball. Again, it's hard to say because who knows what his injury is. But the rumors are like that even I seen even their beat writers write about it It his shoulder It his throwing shoulder that he got a little banged up on Didn look like much though Again in that practice he had good zip on the ball Wasn throwing it at guy feet Wasn throwing it over their head Put it right in their chest right in their hands, right by their heads. Like if as long as he has accuracy and the ball is coming out of his hand quick, I'm back on the 49ers. I think Jimmy, he did exactly what I needed to see. I needed to see him look healthy, make passes and not just be like a lazy, you know, practice two-step drop just throwing it like really seeing him put some you know oomph behind his passes and really throw a tight spiral look good like looked exactly what i expect jimmy to look like so nothing's changed buddy i'm going to probably sprinkle more on the first half money line for this 49ers team i am full game just because again i've talked to a bunch of pros they're right like i'm i might be buying too much into my own future in this 49ers team that they're going to pull the actual upset off with Green Bay. It's fair argument to say it's Aaron Rodgers' year. Again, he's at MVP. They're the best team of football. When they're fully healthy, all their pieces are there. They are the best team. We talked all the last show about their weakness is running. They cannot stop the run on defense. We saw this 49ers team to that Dallas Cowboys team. They made Dak sit on his ass. He couldn't get a rhythm. The man could not find a rhythm. You saw once he found a rhythm was in, well, the fourth quarter because they kept getting short fields and they kept getting the ball and they had more time with the ball this is the this is the formula to beat this aaron rogers team like aaron rogers we've seen it when like they lost that buccaneers the bucks yeah they got lucky that scotty miller touchdown before halftime last year the nfc championship game but they also ball controlled they really ball controlled that game kept rogers off the field he made a little comeback at the end of the game once he got in a rhythm but again it was too late by then so looking at this 49ers team i have to believe that their run game is going to make this game close. Six is such a big number. I really can't believe it's just sitting up there. That's what I kind of feel like a little bit like a fool taking it. But then I look at the numbers and it looks like it's public and sharp money coming in heavy on Green Bay. And in the playoffs, it's usually good to be on the opposite side of the public and the professionals. The bookmakers usually know what they're doing. So unless this number shoots only up to seven, six and a half, I'm feeling pretty damn good about taking a six year. That's a fair number. That's a really sharp number too, because again, we talk about time, Chad, it lands on six often. Okay. It doesn't really land on seven. It's more likely to land on six. I love the value there. Not again, not going to put as much on the full game money line, just because I have a futures with the 49ers, but first half money. Green Bay coming out slow after extended rest against a team 49ers that they're ready for this. Like, again, Shanahan, he's really dominated his ex-existence. And LaFleur, they beat him this past season 30 to 28 against the 49ers. We talked about that. Green Bay had some miracle play at the end with Rodgers to get that field goal to win that game. We know the 49ers were not good to start the year. They're much, much better now, much more confident. Nick Bosa also is practicing. We're not practicing, but he was on the field with his helmet yesterday. going through concussion protocols. Fred Warner is supposed to be back too for this 49ers defense. Big, big deals to me for this team. So I'm sticking to it, Chad. I believe in this 49ers team. I still think they have a really good chance to win outright, but taking that six, that's the smart player. You take that number. Yeah, it's funny. It's the one game that I just cannot seem to get behind. And I normally have so much confidence betting the Niners as a big dog. And I don't know why I'm having a hard time you know probably because it's Jimmy Jimmy G playing in what is it five degrees in Green Bay for Sunday it'll be two degrees and a windshield below zero so fuck I'm scared too buddy but it's like I got it like we saw last week Shanahan's run blocking scheme they dominated Dallas I'm running that ball and that's what I have to believe in it's like this guy yeah he's one of the worst ever in the fourth quarter and this he can choke away a win like nobody but taking those six points. That's just a lot of points for Shanahan in the playoffs. All right. All right. I just say for our big balls bet you like the 49ers I was going to say Kansas City Chiefs Yeah Yeah No that fair because we going against really really smart groups taking that number Yeah Like that to me it feels like it that feels like the foxhole and the big balls better the week because everybody is against us Like we have not heard from our collective sources and we have entirely different sources that anybody is liking the Chiefs in this game. Everybody seems to love the Bills. And here we are. Let's climb down into the foxhole. How is it that the big balls bed of the week is one of the best teams of this generation? I don't know. How are we alone? How are we in a fucking foxhole? I don't know. But we are with the Kansas City Chiefs minus two, minus one and a half against the Buffalo Bills. my man all right tennessee minus three and a half chiefs minus two niners plus six rams plus three two favorites two dogs afc favorites nfc dogs this could go a million different ways it could”
30-27 — Rams beat Buccaneers 30-27 (Divisional Round); Los Angeles won outright, so Rams +3 covers (ESPN box score).
“Also because in the entire conversation, the only game that I felt compelled to immediately bet when we were talking about it was Tennessee. Yeah, there's only four games. It's a little like more magnified. I don't think we'll be in the foxhole until Thursday. It's very possible that we go into the foxhole on San Francisco. 100%. That's what like I just like that was that was going to be my favorite bet heading into this week because I just knew they were going to be undervalued against the screen bait team. But I just need to see what the deal is with Jimmy. We're not talking about the total on that because I don't think I think the total is tied to sort of what we think of the side. Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City Chiefs, two-point favorites at home against the Buffalo Bills. And this line has dropped 97% of the money on the Buffalo Bills. 64% of the bets right now on the Kansas City Chiefs. You know you make me want to shout. two months ago i promised our listeners i wouldn't play the bill shout song until they won a playoff game so here we go jad you know what my deal is i've said it three years my rule of thumb in the playoffs is If Mahomes is playing any other quarterback than Tom Brady, I always bet Patrick Mahomes. It has worked out swimmingly for me. I think the only time I haven't covered with him was that fucking Browns game where he got hurt. Chad Henney came in. They won. I don't think they covered that. I'm trying to off the top of my head remember it, but I honestly think he's covered every single game I've ever bet on him in the playoffs, except when he plays against Tom Brady. He played against Tom Brady in the AFC Championship game. He lost to him. Played against Tom Brady in the Super Bowl. He lost to him. This ain't Tom Brady. It's Josh Allen. Josh Allen, do it, bro. Slay the beast. This is your second time around. It's really fucking hard to beat the same team twice in a year. That's why we see the divisional matchups. It's usually always split. Like that's just, even when the teams aren't good, they usually split divisional matchups because it's so hard to beat a team twice in a year. The bills, they built their entire team for this chiefs team. That's why I like, I've already talked to a couple of pros. They're all in on the bills. Like that, that not shocking at all, how much Chad just said all the money's coming on the bills. This is exactly what this bill team is built for. They lost to this chief team last year. They've been thinking about it all off season. That's why they smacked them when they played earlier this season, do it. If you believe in the bills, if you think this is the bills year, this is it. Like the bills win this game going into last, I would say last week, the only team I had Tennessee as an underdog against was the chiefs at home. I make the bills minus one. Now they play Tennessee. I will have the bills favorite. So this is it. Like the bills, they could be the best team of football right now. They have arguably the best offense, most complete defense. I mean, their team, their defense has been great all season. Yeah. you can say they played an easy conference and who'd they really play even against good teams. Their defense was really good. I just have to get it to this chiefs team. They've just been here so many times. Chad just said that number is down to two. I can't not take it. I can't not take this number under three. So I made this minus three. I'm taking the value. Chad, he might be on the bills, man, Mitchell, please don't hate me. It's just, it's just business. My friend. How could I hate you for that? I only had one note. My only note was the bill spent an entire off season preparing themselves to play the Chiefs in the playoffs. You've covered it already. They've designed every move to beat this team. That's exactly why they ran it up as much as they could in their last meeting. But it is very, very difficult to beat the same team, a quality opponent on the road twice in the same year. I think Buffalo will win. I bet my own money on that, but I'm still riding the high of last week, which is probably the worst thing that could have happened in terms of this game is spend a whole week of everyone telling you you are the perfect football team. Definitely not what Buffalo wants to hear So I really banking on the shame and anger of last season Still those fires still burning bright And you hit it on the head too That perfect game I would love if we could find something in BetLabs I'm definitely going to try to dive into it. Like, again, it's never happened before, so there's nothing to go off of that. But when's the last time a team played that flawless? And then the following week, just laid an egg. Because not that I remember that Bill was doing it before, but it's like, I feel like this happens in the playoffs where a team plays like that, where the Chiefs, they were pretty sloppy. I mean, they were down 7-0 at Pittsburgh. All of a sudden, Mahomes turned it on. It was 21-7. And it's like they needed that maybe. Maybe they need a little bit of hit in the mouth that woke them up where, like he just said, the Bills, hopefully they have that hunger because they're going to be feeling damn good all week. They literally played a flawless game. So I feel like we're getting a good number based off that, like the public perception of they just played a flawless game. So I'm interested to see what you got to do, Chad. You on the Chiefs? You on the Bills? The Chiefs have gotten better pretty much all season. and their offensive line has gotten better all season. Every single week, people are trying to explain why their offense hasn't been as explosive. Their offense was pretty fucking explosive this past week. That's one of the best defenses in football. Against like a pass rush. Not a great rush, not a great rush defense, but a pass rush that is as good as it gets, right? They were top 10 against the pass. They may have threw for 400 yards. Yeah, exactly. um you know who knows if they were holding some tricks in the bag for the playoffs and sort of waiting like you know in rocky when he's fighting right-handed and then he unleashes the left hand um or if it was just the way the matchups played out and mahomes was scrambling and so artistic uh in the pocket but they looked really good too and they got a run game when mckinnon i mean that guy yeah whenever you see a player with a number one fast yeah you just think he looks faster when they have the number one and he really does look fast as shit. At the end of the day, it comes down to this. Patrick Mahomes is a generational talent. He's been in the past two Super Bowls, a MVP quarterback. He's better than Josh Allen. He's playing at home and he's favored by less than a field goal. Like let's not overthink this, right? We had the same conversations last week about the Bengals and the Raiders. The Bengals are a better team, right? The Chiefs, Even if everything is even, the Chiefs should be favored by three at home. Now they're favored by two. I want the Bills to win. I do. I got a big futures ticket on the Bills I got a big futures ticket on the Packers I love to see the two of them meet in the Super Bowl together I will probably bet on the Chiefs if only to have a slight hedge on that futures ticket Yeah, Chiefs minus two. It's got to be. Yeah, and I'm right there with you. It's just, again, the numbers, luckily the numbers do back it up. But even if they kind of went against it, I probably would just go against my numbers because what you just said, It's like sometimes the numbers can't take into account how great Mahomes is. And we're going to get burned. Like, we'll lose games with Mahomes. Again, Brady, the greatest quarterback ever. What is it, nine Super Bowls he's been to, ten Super Bowls? It's like we've never seen anything like it before. The odds of Mahomes duplicating it are probably less than 2%. But it's like maybe I'll fade him on the road next week against Tennessee when I'm getting a dog and getting a good number with Tennessee. But this week, like Chad just said, at home, he just does not lose there unless it's Tom Brady. So I'm going to be taking Mahomes as well with that too. This is the kind of game where I do think it'll probably play against type. The total is really high, 54 and a half. I'm actually on that over. What? I know. And like statistically, I usually would go on the under. I just, these two offenses, I just can't see either quarterback giving a damn. what the scores they're just going to be throwing the ball so weather permitting i think stucky tweeted out it's like playoff total is this high or eight and one towards the under the only over that's ever hit in the playoffs with above this number was the chiefs versus the bills so i'm i'm just looking at two offenses that i love the oc of the bills i love andy reed and what he does with his offense i mean again the end of the first quarter was zero zero in that chiefs game against the Pittsburgh and went over by like two touchdowns or three touchdowns maybe like you just can't I just can't bet these unders in these Chiefs kind of game so I'll take an over in a matchup between two generational talents at quarterback all right well right now you and I are both leaning towards favorites Kansas City minus two Tennessee minus three and a half we're waiting to see what the wise guys do with the Bucks and the Rams and if the if we think it's a soft three and that the books will move it one way or the”
19-16 — Bengals won 19-16 at Tennessee (Divisional Round); Titans lost outright, so Titans -3.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, Chiefs minus two. It's got to be.”
36-42 — Chiefs beat Bills 42-36 in OT (Divisional Round); Chiefs margin +6 covers -2 (ESPN box score).
“I was on the Bengals at five and a half. I would like permission to adjust that to four and a half since that's where the line is. Yeah, that's fair. You're on the 49ers plus three. I would say heading into the weekend, the bets that we currently feel best about, Niners plus three, Pats plus four, four and a half, the best number you can get. We like the Bengals at minus four and a half or five, the best number you can get. I think we like Kansas City minus 12 and a half.”
BUF 47, NE 17 — Bills beat Patriots 47-17; Patriots +4 lost by 30 (ESPN box score).
“D'Amico Ryan's or DC, he's been good. Like he's improved as the season's going along here. So, I do like the over. I'm just not putting that much on it. It's very possible that while we love the Bengals because we think the Raiders might be too much of a public dog, we could be walking into the public dog trap with the Niners. And like, I didn't know the numbers like that until you read it off. And that's that's scary. Again, you know what? Courage of our convictions. We like the Niners. We're going with the fucking Niners here. No, I mean, I've already betted so much that, yeah, there's no turning back. Like, I'm going to keep betting it as long as it's a three. But at this point in the season, you just got to trust your gut and kind of roll with it.”
SF 23, DAL 17 — 49ers beat Cowboys 23-17; 49ers +3 covered by 6 (ESPN box score).
“I was on the Bengals at five and a half.”
CIN 26, LV 19 — Bengals beat Raiders 26-19; Bengals -4.5 covered by 2.5 (ESPN box score).
“And I would also say Pat's bills under 44 and a half.”
BUF 47, NE 17 — Bills beat Patriots 47-17 (64 combined points); under 44.5 lost (ESPN box score).
“I have an idea for the big balls bet of the week. Lay it on me. I think it should be the Kansas City Chiefs. Yeah? Yeah. This is when historically you want to bet on Mike Tomlin. It's a rah-rah Mike Tomlin spot. What? What? And the Chiefs have been inconsistent this year offensively. But the reason to me why it's a big balls bet of the week is because 64% of the money right now is coming in on the Steelers. It tells me that we're going to be alone on an island. We're with the public on this. This number has moved down. It's clear the wise guys are coming in on the Chiefs. I don't see it with the Steelers team. like if the Steelers defense holds the Chiefs to 14 points I think the Chiefs still might cover because I don't see Ben we've said this all season long Ben Roethlisberger's best play throw the ball up downfield hope that because the ball is so short because he can't throw it more than 20 yards his receiver comes back and he gets some kind of DPI that's their offense right now tell me how the Steelers are going to score. Again, as much as I would love to hate on Chad about that, Steelers didn't score a touchdown until the final two minutes, last time they played the Chiefs. They like Tomlin was down 30 points He made his starter stay in just to get a touchdown a meaningless touchdown at the end of that game So yeah that a fair point to make Again their receivers are so talented I can see them putting up some type of points. Like the Steelers arguably have a trio of the top five or top four best receivers in football. Again, Big Ben's horrible, but I could just see that working out for them, them getting some points. But the Chiefs matchup-wise, I just love the matchup for their offense going against this Pittsburgh defense. Pittsburgh, their strength has been a pass rush and against the run. Mahomes knows that. Like, the last time they played, he was getting out quick. Once the DNs got tired, once Watt got a little tired, then he would take his time. He would go long to the hill where he would take a middle shot to Kelsey. So, I'm right there with you, bud. I wish I could bet more on this with the Chiefs. The reason I'm just pausing on it is because of what you just said. I know a bunch of professional groups have come in on Pittsburgh. They have a different read than me. When I looked at this game, immediately I was thinking to myself, I'll take the Chiefs and the over in a blowout. Like the Chiefs will just be putting up a ton of points. But in fairness to them, what they're looking at is what you just said with Pittsburgh. Their defense, they are really good. They're really good against the pass, too, where they can rush the passer. We know how young this offensive line is for the Chiefs, even though they've been playing incredible this season. I think they're great as a top three offensive line and pro football focus. So I'll give them their props. The Chiefs have had one of the better offensive lines, especially with the pass. But that's what these guys are looking at. These pros are thinking themselves, I'm getting 12 and a half, 13 points at Pittsburgh. I'll take that number in a playoff matchup where historically double digit favorites at home and wild card round cover.”
KC 42, PIT 21 — Chiefs beat Steelers 42-21; Chiefs -12.5 covered by 8.5 (ESPN box score).
“You're on the 49ers plus three. I would say heading into the weekend, the bets that we currently feel best about, Niners plus three, Pats plus four, four and a half, the best number you can get. We like the Bengals at minus four and a half or five, the best number you can get. I think we like Kansas City minus 12 and a half. Kansas City first half too. They're minus seven. That's a good number.”
KC 42, PIT 21 — Chiefs led Steelers 21-0 at halftime en route to a 42-21 win; Chiefs first-half -7 covered easily (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to take the Bengals minus five and a half.”
CIN 26, LV 19 — Bengals beat Raiders 26-19; Bengals -5.5 covered by 1.5 (ESPN box score).
“The Packers 375. Chiefs 425. Bills 750. Bucks 750. Titans 850. Rams 10. Cowboys 12. Bengals 17. Then Cardinals. And I forgot the Steelers who are bringing up the rear. Hit that horn, babe. Let's dance. And like, if we're going with best value, what's your favorite value play for all those? Probably the Titans. My man look at us thinking so much alike It got to be Titans You know like the Titans are the number one seed but their odds are longer than the Chiefs and the Buccaneers right now So I'd probably put a nickel on the Titans. You know, Titans, Bucs, Super Bowl could be interesting.”
Titans lost the AFC Divisional round to the Bengals 19-16, and the Rams beat the Bengals 23-20 to win Super Bowl LVI, so the Titans +850 Super Bowl future lost (Wikipedia).
“Taking Atlanta would be the spoiler. I'll take their money line.”
NO 30, ATL 20 — Saints beat Falcons 30-20; Falcons moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“I got to take the Rams in this position, especially if you're giving me a number like four. That's just a key number. So to me, if this was six, six and a half, I'd start thinking about 49ers, but it's still at the low four. I'll take the four of the Rams. Is this a Simon Says game? No. Again, you're going to hate, you're going to hate the game that I really liked this week. All right. All right. I like the Rams bet. That is one I will bet right away.”
SF 27, LAR 24 — 49ers beat Rams 27-24 in OT; Rams -4 lost by 3 (ESPN box score).
“going to take the Titans minus three and a half. That was my other option.”
TEN 34, MIA 3 — Tennessee beat Miami 34-3, a 31-point margin, covering the -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“It's going to be a factor in a late December game. So I was wavering making this one of our five, but the more like I've looked at it, it feels like we kind of have to like it feels like the most balanced number this week but like again we not getting crazy value I want to get two points of value but the fact that it a two and a half three that again a key number So it makes me want to take that bills team. I have no issues with this pick. Love it. Love the bills in this spot.”
BUF 33, NE 21 — Buffalo beat New England 33-21, a 12-point margin, covering the +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“All right. Miami plus three at New Orleans. You liked it above one and a half or two. It's still at three. This to me absolutely is going to be in our top five, even though we don't like Monday night games, we're going to have to do it.”
MIA 20, NO 3 — Miami beat New Orleans 20-3, a 17-point margin, covering the +3 (ESPN box score).
“so the Chargers break our heart they strike a lightning bolt through the core of our beings talk about emotional they're on the road now against the Texans nine and a half point uh favorites I'd wait on it it's one of those games I just wait you'll bet you'll hopefully you'll be able to get a 10 or something with Houston but Chargers team they usually beat up on these bad team. So I'm a little scared taking Houston team off a win, but I've seen it time and time again, this Houston team plays, they play well at home and we've seen Davis Mills say what you want about them. He might've been the second or third best rookie this season. I mean, the kid is again, he's only beating the Jaguars. I get that. He's not, that's nothing to really ho-hum about, but a lot of these games, he keeps them in close. He makes big throws. So I don't know. I feel like the value right now is technically on the chargers because underneath the key number of 10, but I just don't feel comfortable taking that that big of a number. So I'd probably wait and hopefully take Houston. Here, I agree with you. I think Texan is going to be the right side when it all comes down to it and the picks are coming in on the chargers. But if we're going to be willing to take the Panthers in similar situations against a much better team in the Bucs, I can't not take the Texans who I think have shown the ability to keep these games close. And like you said with davis mills performed much better than we expected against a charger scene that is just doing consistent and i think like you talk about emotion it's hard to come back from what they lost on thursday it isn't it isn't though they didn't think they're in the wrong they thought they did everything right so to me they're probably just thinking you know that's what we do that's how why we are where we are this year so i don't see them affecting that much but everything you said is true if you're willing to take carolina you kind of have to take the texans for the same exact reason. It's just way too big of a number for a team that doesn't deserve all that respect.”
HOU 41, LAC 29 — Houston beat the Chargers 41-29, a 12-point margin, covering the +9.5 (ESPN box score).
“them again i agree these teams are both a pass for me right now pittsburgh steelers at kansas City Chiefs. The Steelers are now 10 point underdogs. Fire away on the Chiefs, baby. Interesting. I know. I knew that you would think I would be on Pittsburgh, but I'm not.”
KC 36, PIT 10 — Kansas City beat Pittsburgh 36-10, a 26-point margin, covering the -10 (ESPN box score).
“I am on the Falcons plus 10 and a half.”
17-30 — Buccaneers beat Falcons 30-17; Falcons bust +10.5 (ESPN box score).
“Yeah I going with the Falcons plus 10 and a half I guess”
17-30 — Buccaneers beat Falcons 30-17; Falcons bust +10.5 (ESPN box score).
“All right, I'll go Giants against my Eagles. This is a great spot for them. Getting three and a half, four, four. That's a good number to take with this Giants team.”
7-13 — Giants beat Eagles 13-7, a 6-point win that covers New York's +4 spread (ESPN Week 12 schedule).
“We were all over Atlanta on Tuesday. I bet the Falcons plus seven, the line has been moving down,”
25-0 — Patriots routed Falcons 25-0; Atlanta lost outright, busting the +7 spread (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“When I was able to bet it on Tuesday, legally in the state of Connecticut, I got it at 11.”
22-13 — Texans beat Titans 22-13 outright, which covers Houston's +11 spread (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“Got it at plus 380, I think.”
22-13 — Texans won outright 22-13 over the Titans, so the Houston moneyline (+380) cashes (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“i'm going with the saints plus one and a half”
29-40 — Eagles beat Saints 40-29; New Orleans lost outright, busting the +1.5 spread (ESPN Week 11 schedule).
“So we'll stick with, with a Washington football team, nine and a half. We still like it.”
WSH 29, TB 19 — Washington beat Buccaneers 29-19; Washington won by 10, covering +9.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“I just don't really have a feel for it. I was on the Green Bay side. So if you throw the Seahawks money line in there, you want to take out one of these big ones and watching a football team in the Jets. I get it. I just like playing these big numbers because of the value of the whole over the whole season. Yeah, guy like I had pins in my thumb. Oh, yeah. I had him taken out. I was I was balling the next day. Really? I mean, literally crying, not falling. What was that like, though? Like, did it feel normal, like literally right afterwards? It's fucking weird. it's really weird but look they'll shoot him up they'll wrap it he'll play he'll be fine i'd rather bet on russell wilson seven days removed from pins than aaron rogers uh off of covid having seen how challenging it can be for people to come back from that having not for two weeks. Yeah, that's I'm with you on that. But I've been burned by these situations all year. So I'll just I'll just pass. Okay. All right. We've done Survivor. We've done Moneyline Parlay. We've narrowed down our picks. I will remind everybody watch Convince Me Sunday mornings at Action Network HQ 11 a.m. Eastern. We'll dig in a little deeper. Reminder for Scooch Roulette. I took Washington plus nine and a half. Simon took the Saints plus plus three. I'm kind of regretting. My choice, our big balls bet of the week is the Jets plus 13. Our Simon Says is Washington football team plus nine and a half. Our foxhole is Saints plus three. I am Shad Millman for Simon Hunter. This has been the favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. Download on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts. Rate, review, subscribe. We'll be back on Tuesday.”
NYJ 17, BUF 45 — Bills beat Jets 45-17; New York lost by 28, busting +13 (ESPN scoreboard).
“This to me is an automatic. If I'm not feeling the weight of the past several weeks, I'm looking at this and it's clear as day. Take the Washington football team plus nine and a half.”
WSH 29, TB 19 — Washington beat Buccaneers 29-19; Washington won by 10, covering +9.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“Jaguars are 10 and a half point dogs. Give me the Colts. This is a no brainer.”
IND 23, JAX 17 — Colts beat Jaguars 23-17; Indianapolis won by only 6, busting -10.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“I think you can get the Panthers again at plus four. I think they're back up to four. So yes, go all in on that.”
CAR 6, NE 24 — Patriots beat Panthers 24-6; Carolina lost by 18, busting +4 (ESPN scoreboard).
“As we transition into Survivor, which deserves a little bit of conversation today, let's recap. Panthers plus four. Well, Chiefs is in the contest to pick, but that's not what the line is anymore. Panthers plus four, Niners plus one. We still like the Bengals minus two and a half. Take the Eagles plus two and a half because there's whispers about Herbert's health.”
SF 17, ARI 31 — Cardinals beat 49ers 31-17; San Francisco lost by 14, busting +1 (ESPN scoreboard).
“we're doing a money line parlay this week simon this is what i would do i would do the panthers I would do the 49ers. Love it. That might be all that I love right now. We'll throw Minnesota Vikings in for my boy. Minnesota Vikings. Throw Eagles in there. Jesus Christ. Now all of a sudden it's getting disgusting. Oh, this is going to be the grossest part of the whole thing. Green Bay. Throw it in there, people.”
Parlay busts: Panthers ML lost (Patriots 24, Panthers 6); 49ers ML lost (Cardinals 31, 49ers 17); Vikings ML lost (Ravens 34, Vikings 31 OT); Eagles ML lost (Chargers 27, Eagles 24); Packers ML lost (Chiefs 13, Packers 7) — all five legs lost (ESPN scoreboard).
“way, I'm getting the bangles at two and a half. I'm not getting the bangles, whatever fucked up number it lands at on Sunday. Bangles, two and a half. Scooch roulette. That's a roulette wheel.”
CIN 16, CLE 41 — Browns beat Bengals 41-16; Cincinnati lost outright, busting -2.5 (ESPN scoreboard).
“We love the Colts. [6:20] We love them at plus one and a half. We're still going to be on them. If it gets any higher, we got to reconsider it.”
TEN 34, IND 31 — Titans beat Colts 34-31 in OT; Indianapolis lost by 3, no cover of +1.5 (ESPN).
“And I bet on the Colts plus one and a half.”
TEN 34, IND 31 — Titans beat Colts 34-31 in OT; Indianapolis lost by 3, no cover of +1.5 (ESPN).
“I'm taking the Saints plus five against the Bucs.”
NO 36, TB 27 — Saints beat Buccaneers 36-27; New Orleans won by 9, covering +5 (ESPN).
“The Eagles, my Scoot Roulette pick. They are currently, let me just triple check here, three-point underdogs.”
LV 33, PHI 22 — Raiders beat Eagles 33-22; Philadelphia lost by 11, no cover of +3 (ESPN).
“I'm going to be the sharp here. I'm taking the Eagles plus three and a half at the Las Vegas [47:48] Raiders.”
LV 33, PHI 22 — Raiders beat Eagles 33-22; Philadelphia lost by 11, no cover of +3.5 (ESPN).
“we're taking the bangles plus three against the packers everything lines up here”
GB 25, CIN 22 — Packers beat the Bengals 25-22 in OT; Cincinnati margin -3 exactly matches the +3 line, so the spread bet pushed (ESPN).
“Everything says bet the Giants plus seven. We're going to do it. We set it to Simon Says bet. Stick with it.”
DAL 44, NYG 20 — Cowboys beat the Giants 44-20; New York margin -24 vs the +7 line, so the spread bet lost (ESPN).
“All right, this is one of my favorite games of the week. Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers. This game opened Browns minus one and a half. It is now Chargers minus one. Simon, I don't want to hear about it. If you're not going with the Chargers in this game, you and I have to go against each other.”
LAC 47, CLE 42 — Chargers beat the Browns 47-42; Los Angeles margin +5 covers the -1 line, so the spread bet won (ESPN).
“Panthers plus four and a half against the Cowboys. This was our Simon Says bet like the Bengals the week before. On Tuesday, you Simon Says this, which means that we must bet it. I did bet it at four and a half.”
36-28 — Cowboys beat Panthers 36-28; Carolina lost by 8, busting the +4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I also bet a little bit of a taste, half a unit on the Panthers money line.”
36-28 — Panthers lost 36-28 to the Cowboys; the Carolina moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Chargers plus six and a half against the Chiefs. I love this game.”
30-24 — Chargers beat Chiefs 30-24 on the road, covering Los Angeles +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“going to do that in a second. We like the chargers a lot. We like Miami a lot. I feel like we just decided to throw the Eagles in there too. No, we talked, we talked, we said, we talked that we liked them on Tuesday. We just said we don't do Monday games, but I think we have to suspend that rule. We have to get out of our comfort zone right now. Our favorite five, we're only four and six and we've got some bad beats in there. I think we need to have as many games as possible to choose from. If we like this number, we got to go for it. And if it means I have to stay up a little bit later on Monday night, I'll just deal. All right, my man. So Chargers, Miami and Eagles. Oh, my God. We're walking down a very ugly road. I love that. Those are three road teams. That's so unlike us. We usually always take home teams. Three road dogs right now. Even though every fiber of my being says the Packers, I think the Niners are coming into pole position here. So it's really going to come down to the Niners, Rams, and Vikings, unless the Bengals go back to three and a half. So we will update everybody Sunday morning. Simon and I will decide what the final five are. We definitely like the Chargers plus six and a half. Miami plus about four, four and a half. The Eagles plus four.”
41-21 — Cowboys beat Eagles 41-21; Philadelphia lost by 20, busting the +4 spread (ESPN box score).
“OK. There has been nothing I've seen, no reporting, no line movement to make me feel like I don't want to put the Jags in the contest. Jags plus six. The line is way overinflated. Look at headlines, meaning the lines that came out a few weeks ago were two and a half. maybe it's power rated you know three and a half whatever it is I feel like the Jags are still the right side here”
JAX 13, DEN 23 — Broncos beat Jaguars 23-13; Jaguars lost by 10, busting +6 (ESPN box score).
“to get ahead of. That's kind of why I did it. Like this morning, this morning I did the bears minus two and a half. I think I did the jets plus six and somebody else, because I felt like those lines were actually going to start moving against me.”
CHI 20, CIN 17 — Bears beat Bengals 20-17, covering -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I went in on the Panthers at minus four this morning”
CAR 19, NYJ 14 — Panthers beat Jets 19-14, covering -4 (ESPN box score).
“And after talking with Brett, I'm betting Nebraska under six wins at even money.”
Nebraska finished the 2021 regular season 3-9, well under the 6-win total (ESPN schedule).
“Then I'm taking Matt Ryan 38 to one to lead the league in passing touchdowns.”
Tom Brady led the NFL with 43 passing touchdowns in 2021; Matt Ryan threw 20, so Ryan did not lead the league (ESPN stats). (Tom Brady 43 passing TDs (Matt Ryan 20))
“But I think the Panthers go over seven and a half wins.”
The Carolina Panthers finished the 2021 season 5-12, under the 7.5-win over total (ESPN standings). (CAR 2021: 5-12)
“Justin Fields highlights. I love him. So excited for Justin Fields and his performance. So excited for what the Bears can possibly be. So ready to go all in on the Bears over seven. Come on. Over seven and a half. We got two wins easy against the Lions. Seven and 10? They're not going seven and 10. Come on. Come on. Eight and nine in a 17-game season? That doesn't feel crazy. No.”
Bears finished the 2021 regular season 6-11, under the 7.5-win line, so the over lost (Wikipedia). (Bears 2021: 6-11)
“I'm betting Chris Paul MVP.”
Series: MIL 4, PHX 2 — Giannis Antetokounmpo won 2021 NBA Finals MVP as the Bucks beat the Suns 4-2; Chris Paul did not win MVP, so that futures bet lost.
“I'm betting Jae Crowder MVP.”
Series: MIL 4, PHX 2 — Giannis Antetokounmpo won 2021 NBA Finals MVP as the Bucks beat the Suns 4-2; Jae Crowder did not win MVP, so that futures bet lost.
“I'm betting Suns minus 200 to win the series.”
Series: MIL 4, PHX 2 — The Milwaukee Bucks defeated the Phoenix Suns 4-2 in the 2021 NBA Finals, clinching Game 6 105-98 on July 20, 2021, so the -200 bet on the Suns to win the series lost.
“I bet Matt, I didn't bet you, I bet, comma, Matt Moore, comma, the Lakers at plus 450 when they were basically at their lowest point late in the season. You had an article on actionnetwork.com talking about when to bet the Lakers for the NBA title. Put that in context of the play and game against the Warriors.”
Lakers were eliminated 4-2 by Phoenix in the 2021 first round and did not win the title (Wikipedia, 2021 NBA playoffs).
“It's why we're going to bet on Seattle at 22 to one or even on the Saints at 19 to one. I like all those. I like everything everyone just said. I'm spreading it out. I'm putting money on every one of these things like they are a pack of Top Shot. That's what I'm doing.”
The Seattle Seahawks finished the 2021 season 7-10 and missed the playoffs; the Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl LVI (ESPN standings; Wikipedia Super Bowl LVI).
“All right. So I'm putting the bills in at four and a half.”
BUF 56, MIA 26 — Bills beat Dolphins 56-26, covering the -4.5 spread by 25.5 points.
“So I'm going to go all in on the Bears, plus five and a half.”
GB 35, CHI 16 — Packers beat Bears 35-16; Chicago lost by 19, busting the +5.5 spread.
“The Washington football team one and a half point favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles. Professional football quarterback Alex Smith will be playing. I would take Washington here.”
WSH 20, PHI 14 — Washington beat Eagles 20-14, covering the -1.5 spread.
“All right, let's get on to the early games for Sunday. The Texans are visiting the Bears. They are one-point favorites right now. This is a trash Bears team. It's a trash Bears team. It's a trash organization. I say that with 100% bias. Shield your eyes. This team is officially trash. Ryan Pace should probably be fired. Matt Nagy should probably be fired. Mitch Trubisky should be let go. They kind of got to blow the whole thing up and start over because it's just, it's going nowhere. The play calling was terrible. When the Bears were down 30, were up 30 to 20 against the Lions, I said to my kid, like, this is exactly where Matthew Stafford wants him. The Lions are going to win this game. My other fear was that Trubisky was going to play so well, the Bears decided, oh my God, he's as good as Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. Let's just re-sign him. So I'm taking the Texans here at minus one. Bears fans be a little happier. At least you don't have Carson Wentz locked up for the next four years at like 30 million a year By the way another reason why the Eagles are the initial entrant into the Vomitorium Hall of Fame That is gross It's awful. I mean, especially the tweets coming out right now. Eagles fans are so bitter. The fact that we passed on DK Metcalf and Justin Jefferson, and we have wide receivers that are just terrible. Like Alshon Jeffrey, he's been back for four games now. We're paying him $12 million a year this year. He has three catches and like 10 drops. It's just all falling apart. But yeah, to this game with the Bears, I'll take the Bears again. I know it's awful. I might be the last guy doing it, but home dog. How do you not take the Bears defense against the Texans? The Texans don't have anyone on defense. At least the Bears, we know they have some players on defense, so they'll be able to get stopped. I'll just take the better defense. I'll take the Bears here.”
CHI 36, HOU 7 — Bears beat Texans 36-7 outright, easily covering the +1 spread.
“We got the Bengals on the road. One and a half point dog to the Washington football team. I spoke too soon. Alex Smith came back to bite me. What did you take? An ugly game. This might be one of the few games I don't bet this year. If I'm going to end up betting it, I'll probably end up on the Bengals. But, man, I hate both these teams. There's just so many holes in different spots. And we talked about it last week. I talked about Burrow hitting a rookie wall, and it looked like him and Herbert both hit one last week. And in my mind, you really shouldn't take a rookie on the road. But I don't know. I would stay away. Like, I can't give an honest opinion on it because I honestly had it at minus two for Washington. They're the better team. They're probably the right side. But after last week with Alex Smith, and I don't like betting on Alex Smith. That's why I don't want to do it again because it was just so unenjoyable last week betting on him. Alex Smith, I think, is a professional quarterback. And he has succeeded in every single spot he's been in. He just came out of a game where he threw 55 passes and brought his team back from 21 points down. The Washington football team has an incredibly good defensive line. They have a good enough running game to control the line of scrimmage. Joe Burrow looked like a wreck against the Steelers, and he was a little bit gimpy. Exactly So why wouldn you take everyone going to take Washington That what making me nervous It like do I want it back Yeah but right They not going to take Washington right now I telling you the money and the bets are coming in on the bangles You know why Cause everyone is still thinking about Washington as Washington. They're not thinking about them as a team that could be sort of playing its way into the playoffs in the second half of the year. Whereas everybody else is thinking, Oh, it's Joe Burrow. And like, he might be rookie of the year. They're not, they didn't watch that game against the Steelers. That game didn't get any time. So like, they're just thinking Joe Burrow came back and is like the best quarter, best young quarterback in the game. I liked, I like Washington here. All right. That's Chad. That's Chad. You want to make that the big balls better than we, because that takes some balls to bet on a pirate, the one-legged man, Alex Smith. Oh, that is not right. This man, this man is courage. Big balls better than we. We're going with Washington. I can't believe I just talked myself into Washington. I hate this team.”
WSH 20, CIN 9 — Washington beat the Bengals 20-9, an 11-point margin that covers the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I think the Cowboys are totally the right side here But here our dilemma So right now I have starred of the games we like You like Washington. I like Washington on the money line, but we're not going to put that one in the contest. I think we both like the Falcons for the contest. I think we both like the Bears for the contest. Colts and Eagles are two teams we're probably going to bet, but I don't think we like them for the contest. Pats, we love for the contest. The Finns will talk if Flacco plays. Miami against the Jets. The Buccaneers, we love. We want to marry the Buccaneers. Right now, it's plus one and a half against the Packers. We're hoping it gets a plus three.”
TB 38, GB 10 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers routed Green Bay Packers 38-10, covering +1.5 (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“I also bet the Steelers to win their division.”
Steelers finished 12-4 and won the AFC North in 2020 (ESPN standings).
“with, I made six futures bets between division winners and Super Bowl winners. We talked about some of these last week. I bet the Bears to win their division and win the Super Bowl. I bet Minnesota to win the Super Bowl. I bet the Arizona Cardinals to win the Super Bowl at 50 to 1. I also bet the Steelers to win their division. And then the last bet that I made, the Denver Broncos at 50-1. And I feel like a lot of it has to do with their defense. And sort of I do think they're going to be improving. I do think that, like, in a quarterback-driven league, Drew Locke was serviceable. I wasn't like, oh, my God, he's Kyler Murray. but I like what he can do compared to not throwing a game away and having a defense that I think can be really aggressive and potentially sneak it out, sneak out some wins in the playoffs. If things bounced it away, if Patrick Mahomes is injured, if they end up not seeing him till the AFC conference conference title game. Things like that. You're in that game. You get a shot. So I went with the Broncos at 50 to 1.”
Broncos finished 5-11 and missed the 2020 playoffs; did not win Super Bowl LV (ESPN standings).
“Because that is the Chicago bears who are about plus 380 I think we got them at draft Kings I got them earlier this year I got them at plus 425 to win the NFC North”
Packers won the NFC North at 13-3; Bears finished 8-8, second in the division (ESPN standings).
“on the Giants. To me, that actually, I know you say it's disgusting. I say it's kind of a no-brainer. And again, I'm not doing this to bet the obvious team at sort of low numbers, right? I'm doing this because I want to invest a little bit now and make a little bit later. And if I lose it, it's not so much that I'm like that disappointed. Right? So I love, love, love the Giants at 10 to one,”
Washington won the NFC East at 7-9; the Giants finished 6-10 in 2020 (ESPN standings).
“So here what interesting about this I have three teams that I love that I already bet Superbowl futures on that are from the I bet four Superbowl five Superbowl futures and three of them are on NFC teams Are you ready? If you say the bears, I'm leaving the podcast. I've got the Cardinals at 50 to one.”
Tampa Bay, not Arizona, won Super Bowl LV 31-9 over Kansas City; the Cardinals missed the playoffs (ESPN).
“So here what interesting about this I have three teams that I love that I already bet Superbowl futures on that are from the I bet four Superbowl five Superbowl futures and three of them are on NFC teams Are you ready? If you say the bears, I'm leaving the podcast. I've got the Cardinals at 50 to one. There you go. I've got the Vikings at 25 to one.”
Vikings finished 7-9 and missed the 2020 playoffs; did not win Super Bowl LV (ESPN standings).
“So here what interesting about this I have three teams that I love that I already bet Superbowl futures on that are from the I bet four Superbowl five Superbowl futures and three of them are on NFC teams Are you ready? If you say the bears, I'm leaving the podcast. I've got the Cardinals at 50 to one. There you go. I've got the Vikings at 25 to one. Yeah. And I have the Chicago bears at 40.”
Bears lost to the Saints 21-9 in the Wild Card round and did not win Super Bowl LV (ESPN).
“I was all over Titans, plus 7.5.”
KC 35, TEN 24 — Chiefs beat Titans 35-24 in the AFC Championship; Titans lost by 11, so Titans +7.5 does not cover (ESPN box score).
“So I could see why everybody's on the Niners in this one, but come playoff time, seven and a half points is a lot of points, So I'll just say that. Give me the Niners.”
SF 37, GB 20 — 49ers beat Packers 37-20 in the NFC Championship; 49ers won by 17, covering -7.5 (ESPN box score).
“I like the under 52.5 for the Chiefs Titans.”
KC 35, TEN 24 — Chiefs beat Titans 35-24 in the AFC Championship, a combined 59 points, over the 52.5 total (ESPN box score).
“You took the Vikings. So my two options are the Chiefs at nine and a half or the Ravens at nine. you know what? Screw it. I'm all in on the Chiefs.”
KC 51, HOU 31 — Chiefs beat Texans 51-31 (ESPN AFC Divisional), margin +20 vs line -9.5; Kansas City covers.
“All right, Dallas is visiting Washington. Just give me the Redskins. You have Dallas as an 11-point favorite. Give me the Redskins. Go, now. Well, possibly no Dwayne Haskins. So he's questionable. That just came over this morning. So Dallas, we have an 11-point favorite. Obviously, with the Dallas loss yesterday to Philly, they need some stuff to happen. They need Philly to lose. They have to win this one. I'll take the Redskins. Dallas shouldn't be 11-point favorites against anybody right now.”
DAL 47, WSH 16 — Cowboys beat Washington 47-16 (ESPN); Washington margin -31 vs line +11, does not cover.
“Five-point favorites against the Giants and Daniel Jones. Give me the Giants all freaking day.”
PHI 34, NYG 17 — Eagles beat Giants 34-17 (ESPN); New York margin -17 vs line +5, does not cover.
“Visiting Denver, Drew Locke looks really, really good I watched a lot of that Lions game yesterday it happened to be on in the bar that I was watching and they were down, what, 2017 or 17-13 and he had two really good drives and that defense shut the Lions down and they ended up winning that game going away handily as a favorite. Three and a half points at home. I like Denver here Yeah Yeah So we tried to be we hung three and the money drove it up to three and a half But you know the public is actually on Oakland in this one”
DEN 16, OAK 15 — Broncos beat Raiders 16-15 (ESPN); Denver margin +1 vs line -3.5, does not cover.
“I've already bet Miami plus 16.”
NE 24, MIA 27 — Dolphins beat Patriots 27-24 (ESPN), margin +3 vs line +16; Miami covers.
“Seriously. I'm going with the, you know who I love? Miami Dolphins. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Give me the Miami Dolphins. That's what I'm doing. Okay. They are one and a half point favorites over the Cincinnati Bungles. We call it the Burrow Bowl. Burrow Bowl.”
MIA 38, CIN 35 — Dolphins beat Bengals 38-35 in OT (ESPN), margin +3 vs line -1.5; Miami covers.
“I think I like Pittsburgh minus 2.5.”
PIT 10, BUF 17 — Bills beat Steelers 17-10; Pittsburgh margin -7 vs line -2.5 busts (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“I do like Minnesota minus two and a half. I do too in the sense that it's the Chargers. I mean, the Jaguars, they really are. They're one of the worst teams I've seen this year. Like the last couple weeks, they've completely fallen apart and given up. And the Chargers exploded on. That was a lot of – we know the Chargers are a good team. But I think in this matchup, everything really does favor the Vikings. I mean, they're probably going to have a home crowd here at Charger Stadium. So I like that Vikings number, too. What did you rate it at? Not getting crazy good value. I had Vikings minus three and a half. Dude, you're over a key number at one point. Like, that was the look-ahead line. The look-ahead line was three and a half or four. So I feel like you're getting great value there. Great value. You're getting great value. It's making me nervous, though, that it's coming down. because that means my brother and the Sharps, they were the ones taking the Chargers, so they're the ones that are betting it down. Dude, I don't think so. I think this game reopened at 2.5. I don think people were betting it I think it just that how it reopened after the Chargers beat up the Jags last week Wow that actually really surprising Here are six games. Go ahead. What do you want to say? I would say if we really liked, I mean, with these big dogs, a team that I like that's just a short favorite that I know it's probably not the greatest spot just because I've been winning so much on the Titans and we haven't really been playing them. Yeah. I do think it is another spot where it's a divisional game and they're at home. So this is kind of a game where you can back the Titans, but I know you're probably going to say that we're not getting any value because it's already up to minus three. So you're probably right. We probably lost that value. I think we totally lost it. I think we only play it if it gets back to two and a half. Yeah, I'm just looking at that. I'm seeing it's updated. It's minus three. That's probably what they're going to put in the contest. So, yeah, we can pass on the Titans. All right, so here's the games we got. We're definitely on the Redskins. We have to choose one from Darren, Rams or Seattle. I personally, I'll feel better about just doing Seattle. Okay. Because I think they gave up, but we'll see what Darren wants to do when we talk to him. I think he'd prefer Seattle. Okay. so then we have redskins in seattle so we have three and four to choose from denver plus 10 Steelers minus 2 Minnesota minus 2 Titans minus 3 Let's do the Titans off. Let's lock in the Steelers. That's probably my favorite sharp line we have. Okay. And then we can do the chalk with the Vikings, because that's a good number with them. As long as it stays under 3, I'll take that. I agree. So then we got Denver plus 10.5, or Denver plus 10? Yeah, yeah, definitely keep downgrading. We'll monitor that, see what's going on in the homes, because that's a really good number. All right, so here's what we got. Redskins, plus 4.5. Seattle, minus 6. Denver, plus 10, 10.5. Steelers, minus 2.5. Minnesota, minus 2.5.”
LAC 10, MIN 39 — Vikings beat Chargers 39-10; Minnesota margin +29 vs line -2.5 covers (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“We're definitely on the Redskins. We have to choose one from Darren, Rams or Seattle. I personally, I'll feel better about just doing Seattle. Okay. Because I think they gave up, but we'll see what Darren wants to do when we talk to him. I think he'd prefer Seattle. Okay. so then we have redskins in seattle so we have three and four to choose from denver plus 10 Steelers minus 2 Minnesota minus 2 Titans minus 3 Let's do the Titans off. Let's lock in the Steelers. That's probably my favorite sharp line we have. Okay. And then we can do the chalk with the Vikings, because that's a good number with them. As long as it stays under 3, I'll take that. I agree. So then we got Denver plus 10.5, or Denver plus 10? Yeah, yeah, definitely keep downgrading. We'll monitor that, see what's going on in the homes, because that's a really good number. All right, so here's what we got. Redskins, plus 4.5.”
WSH 27, PHI 37 — Eagles beat Washington 37-27; Washington margin -10 vs line +4.5 busts (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“Seattle, minus 6.”
CAR 24, SEA 30 — Seahawks beat Panthers 30-24; Seattle margin +6 vs line -6 pushes (ESPN Week 15 scoreboard).
“This wise guy is betting the Jacks plus three.”
JAX 10, LAC 45 — Chargers beat Jaguars 45-10; Jacksonville margin -35 vs line +3 busts (ESPN Week 14 scoreboard).
“Do you guys like the Steelers? I actually like Arizona in that side more than the Steelers. So do I. I wrote down Arizona plus three. You don't like that, Simon? We could stay away. I do like Arizona. Because it's one of those that Hodges, he's a rookie quarterback too. So, I mean, people are taking a rookie quarterback favorite on the road. It's kind of surprising. Let's take Arizona there. I'll take Arizona. I'll do Arizona. Arizona, it's the end of the year. We keep betting bad teams. We only have one team with a winning record in our five Most teams have fewer than three wins That how you bet You bet bad teams You a line I'm happy for the first week. For the first week on this podcast, I'm happy. I feel like I'm contributing. Kansas City, plus three. The LA Rams, plus one and a half. Miami, plus five and a half. Cincy, as long as we get them above plus eight. Arizona plus two and a half those are our five boys”
ARI 17, PIT 23 — Steelers beat Cardinals 23-17; Arizona margin -6 vs line +2.5 busts (ESPN Week 14 scoreboard).
“I'm going with the Denver Broncos plus nine.”
HOU 24, DEN 38 — Broncos beat Texans 38-24; Denver margin +14 vs line +9 covers (ESPN Week 14 scoreboard).
“They're, what, nine-and-a-half-point favorites on the road against the Dolphins? Look, I was way off the Dolphins this past week. I thought the tide had sort of crested, for lack of a better term. But you give me a fading struggling Eagles team and a quarterback who can really seem to find the magic that got him to convert every third down a couple years ago versus a Ryan Fitzpatrick team that does not give up Like, they were down 28-0, and midway through the fourth, I was worried about my cover. Yeah, no, they are tenacious now, aren't they? I'm going to take the Dolphins in this game. Yeah, it seems like the right move. I mean, last week, I think you said the bloom was off the rose on betting on the Dolphins and you pick the right time to jump off them. At some point, you know, we kept lowering their power rankings until we created value on them because they were so low. And then once we did see that there was a little fight in this team and they didn't, you know, totally give up on the whole year, we realized they can be competitive, especially when they're getting double digits. they're not quite getting double digits here but it's close nine and a half is the is the spread I think we're probably close to going to nine though I think everyone else is”
MIA 37, PHI 31 — Dolphins beat Eagles 37-31; Miami margin +6 vs line +9.5 covers (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“The New York Jets visiting the Cincinnati Bengals. Andy Dalton back. You've got the Jets as a 3.5-point favorite. What are you doing, man? What are you doing? Too much? You're going to get clocked in this. Give me the red rifle. Give me the red rifle in this game. They're playing hard. Listen, they got one chance to win this year. One. They're looking at it. They're bringing their better quarterback back. They've got a defense that has been really stingy. This is their shot. They are not going to miss their shot. Hamilton, right? I got that reference. sample it all right uh so yeah you know we're we're kind of we're kind of off this year on uh on a lot of these on a lot of these teams and i'll be the first to admit you know we've had some pretty bad lines can't get it can't get a good read on the jets uh obviously from the last two weeks i think they won by identical scores against both both the raiders and the uh the the Redskins. So that's the reason they're a little inflated. Nobody's betting the Bengals or have been during their 11 loss stretch. So that's another reason. The ticket count is about five to one Jets to Bengals. However, we've got more money on this game for more than any other Sunday game. I mean, I'm going to throw the three Thanksgiving Day games out because we have a lot of money on all three of them. But we've got more action on this Jets-Bengals than any other game on Sunday, including the Ravens 49ers. So even bad teams can kind of draw action when there's a little bit of intrigue. The Jets, they're drawing a lot of attention because they're not a good team, but when they win, they win big and they come up with some big wins like they did against the Cowboys, against teams that are much better than them. So a lot of intrigue with that. And then like you said, the Bengals 0-11, if they have a shot to win a game, this is it. So a lot of interest in this game. And on both sides, I mean, the action's good on both sides. We're not lopsided in terms of money. We're only lopsided. in terms of ticket count on the Jets. I'm betting on the Bengals in that game. That's it. That's all there is to it.”
CIN 22, NYJ 6 — Bengals beat Jets 22-6; Cincinnati margin +16 vs line +3.5 covers (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“The next game, Minnesota playing Seattle, in Seattle, Monday night football. ESPN's got itself a game right there. I would take Minnesota in this game. Minnesota's a three-point underdog. Seattle plays them close, generally. They do not tend to look good over the course of an entire game. I am a big Minnesota fan in this game. Give me the Minnesota Vikings”
SEA 37, MIN 30 — Seahawks beat Vikings 37-30; Minnesota margin -7 vs line +3 busts (ESPN Week 13 scoreboard).
“I am going to go with the Buffalo Bills minus four.”
BUF 20, DEN 3 — Bills beat Broncos 20-3; Buffalo margin +17 vs line -4 covers (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“The Sharp guys seem to think that the Jets are the play here. We opened three, and I really thought that they would lay Oakland on this. So this one surprised me. They came in, took the plus three. I'm not going to two and a half. We went to three even money. So we're letting anyone that wants to bet the Jets at plus three, they're going to have to lay $1.20 on this one. But it did surprise me. Now the public is all over the Raiders. So we're seeing somewhere in the neighborhood that 60% of the tickets coming in is going to be on the Raiders. So I think they finally like betting on the Raiders. And so against the Jets, this is going to be a tough one because the public is going to be on one side and Sharpies are on another. And I think I just want to stay at three and just move money all week. The other day on our show on Sunday, someone called in and they asked you a question, which team do you need for your lungs? And they referenced, you know, need for your lungs is a longtime scoochism on the show. Royce is shaking his head. He enjoys that. He appreciates that as a longtime listener. I feel like I feel a little bit like Kelly Clarkson right now. Like we have a studio audience, Pat. Isn't that nice? Pat's shaking his head. But my point is like, when the public jumps on a team, it's time to jump off them. And like the public has jumped on, We are at peak Raiders right now. You know what I mean? Yeah. So give me the New York J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets.”
NYJ 34, OAK 3 — Jets beat Raiders 34-3; New York margin +31 vs line +3 covers (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“Eagles minus one and a half. Pittsburgh minus seven. Pats minus six and a half. Panthers plus ten.”
NO 34, CAR 31 — Saints beat Panthers 34-31; Carolina margin -3 vs line +10 covers (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“I'd rather they take the Buccaneers in this one than lay the Falcons. Line change! You just did it. Royce, you want to throw in a line change? Line change! Oh, I love it. That was great. Our studio audience is bringing enthusiasm. He's a class act. He's a professional. Yep. Detroit is a three-point favorite on the road against the craptastic Washington Redskins. Good Lord, Scooch. Like, this is... Hold your nose. like what are you going to do here? Yeah, we've gotten a lot of money on Detroit already. I know some places open two and a half. We open three. They laid it right out of the gate We went to three minus 20 Wouldn be surprised to see this go up to three and a half regardless of who at quarterback for Detroit Washington I can make up my mind which team is at the bottom of the league right now between the Bengals and Washington. And really, last week, like you pointed out, my best bet, if they couldn't win at home against the Jets, laying only a point, this team is really bad. and they're dysfunctional. So even though they're at home here, I don't have a whole lot of confidence here. 80% of the money's on Detroit so far, and I would expect that to continue throughout the week. So I'm pretty close to going to three and a half. I'm just not there yet. I'm going to have to bet the Redskins in this. Hold your nose. Yeah, 80% of the money's coming in, a home dog. Like, I got to do it. That's what I got to do. All right, can we, listen, the uh sequel to the pantheon cup is happening in tennessee this weekend where the jacksonville”
WSH 19, DET 16 — Washington beat Detroit 19-16 outright; Washington margin +3 vs line +3 wins (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“Here's what we got so far. We are committed. Eagles minus one and a half.”
PHI 9, SEA 17 — Seahawks beat Eagles 17-9; Philadelphia margin -8 vs line -1.5 busts (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“The Buffalo Bills are visiting the Dolphins. They're five-and-a-half-point favorites. Give me the Dolphins!”
MIA 20, BUF 37 — Bills beat Dolphins 37-20; Miami lost by 17, missing +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“We got the corner TV game coming up. Bengals at Raiders. Raiders all of a sudden, best team in the NFL, they're 10.5-point favorites. Come on. Come on. How do you not take the Raiders in this game? I don't know what else to do. You mean take the Raiders or the Bengals? Well, I've got to take the Raiders because the Bengals are barely playing anybody.”
OAK 17, CIN 10 — Raiders beat Bengals 17-10; Oakland won by only 7, missing the -10.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“He really is Yeah You know what I going with the bears i going with the bears wow wow kansas city visiting the la chargers they three and a half point favorites feels like a steal to me give it to me chargers yep no chiefs wow really well you're getting value because we opened so we thought the same thing on this one so we opened what we thought was going to be a pretty high number. We opened four and a half and right out of the gate, they took the four and a half. We went to four. They took the four. We went to three and a half. So at three and a half, we're pretty heavy on the Chiefs and public is going to be on the Chiefs too. It looks like the tickets are about three to one right now. Chiefs to Chargers, but we've already taken a ton of money on the Chargers from the Sharp guys. So they think the Chargers is the play here. this game being played in Mexico City. It's not a home dog, but they certainly feel like there's some value on the points with the Chargers. No, the Chiefs are going to win this game. That's a no-brainer.”
LAC 17, KC 24 — Chiefs beat Chargers 24-17 in Mexico City; Kansas City won by 7, covering -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Miami Dolphins are visiting the Indianapolis Colts. They're 10-point underdogs. We don't know if Jacoby Brissett is playing, but Brian Hoyer looks pretty good. Is there any throw he can make that Brissett can't make look better? it's like you're mad at me no you're throwing shots at me you know well you said something silly but you raise an interesting point that i was going to ask in a more eloquent thoughtful way that adds substance to how people are thinking about these games versus just taking pot shots which is what is the point spread differential between jacoby brissette and brian hoyer three and a half to four. This line will be easily 14 if he's 100%. So the thing of it is, again, I always qualify a player like that that's starting versus him being 100% healthy. So he would have to start and be 100% healthy for him to be 14. So I'm probably looking at more like 13 because he won't be 100%. And that point makes a difference. It does. And the first couple of bets out of the gate were on the Dolphins. So the Dolphins have covered, what, three out of the last three or four? I mean, they've covered like the last three or four games. We've talked about last week, that's why you bet them on the money line in Scooch Roulette, because it was just a great spot for them. And we felt like, you know, as bad as they started the year with all the turmoil and unloading players, they played the last few games with a lot of heart. and you could see that the morale was actually there as opposed to kind of the Jets who just feel like they're in a downward spiral. But yeah, the Dolphins, once again, I mean, if you're talking about the value, getting double digits even against a team like the Colts, yeah, that's the play. I agree. I agree 100%. That's a no-brainer to me. Take the Fins.”
IND 12, MIA 16 — Dolphins beat Colts 16-12 outright, easily covering +10 (ESPN box score).
“and everyone else will sort of do your work for you yep big big Monday night game The undefeated 49ers the 7 Seattle Seahawks Massive game I think the Seahawks are massively overrated They really just seem like the Russell Wilsons at this point. And they are 6.5 point road dogs. And I would go with the Niners all day. If I'm getting half a point underneath the touchdown, man, oh man, a shove it.”
SF 24, SEA 27 — Seahawks beat 49ers 27-24 in OT; San Francisco lost by 3, missing the -6.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Lions plus two and a half.”
CHI 20, DET 13 — Bears beat Lions 20-13; Detroit lost outright, missing +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Dolphins plus 135.”
MIA 26, NYJ 18 — Dolphins beat Jets 26-18 outright, covering the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“Dallas is on the road against the New York Giants. They're seven-point favorites. Monday Night Football. Give me the Giants.”
NYG 18, DAL 37 — Cowboys beat Giants 37-18; New York lost by 19, missing +7 (ESPN box score).
“I want to throw one out there that I love. Love. Simon, give me the Panthers plus five and a half against the Niners.”
SF 51, CAR 13 — 49ers beat Panthers 51-13; Carolina lost by 38, well outside +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“I kind of still like Denver at three.”
DEN 6, KC 30 — Chiefs beat Broncos 30-6 (Broncos margin -24), busting the +3 spread (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“Baltimore-Seattle is a no-brainer to me. Take the Ravens. Go. Yeah, you're not kidding. This is our biggest game in terms of straight bets We got more money on the Ravens from the Sharp guys than let me see any other game I'm just double-checking. Yeah, the Raiders, it's pretty close. Between the Raiders and the Ravens, those are the two most heavily bet games on the board for us from the Wise guys in terms of just one way. Now, we opened four on the game, so a lot of it was just a much higher number. Went to three and a half. They took the three and a half, and we're at three right now.”
SEA 16, BAL 30 — Ravens beat Seahawks 30-16 outright (margin +14), covering +3 (ESPN Week 7 scoreboard).
“The last game that I like, Kansas City as a five-and-a-half point favorite against Houston.”
KC 24, HOU 31 — Texans beat Chiefs 31-24 (Chiefs margin -7), busting the -5.5 spread (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Minnesota is going to be underrated by the public. I think you made a line that is probably a little bit shaded towards Philly. And I would give Minnesota like another point at least. And so I'm taking it at minus three.”
MIN 38, PHI 20 — Vikings beat Eagles 38-20 (margin +18), covering -3 (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Give me the Lions at plus four and a half.”
GB 23, DET 22 — Packers beat Lions 23-22 (Lions margin -1), covering +4.5 (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“They burned me last week but I going with them against the Falcons the minus four and a half I got to tell you I was going to choose them too Instead I going with Carolina minus three and a half Yeah, that's not bad either. Yeah, that's what I'm going to do. All right. You're on the Houston Texans. I'm on the Carolina Panthers.”
CAR 34, JAX 27 — Panthers beat Jaguars 34-27 (margin +7), covering -3.5 (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“Texans minus five, Panthers minus three and a half, Colts plus ten and a half, Cowboys minus three and a half, Denver plus six.”
DAL 24, GB 34 — Packers beat Cowboys 34-24 (Cowboys margin -10), busting the -3.5 spread (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“So far, Darren and I agree on the Patriots minus 7,”
BUF 10, NE 16 — Patriots beat Bills 16-10 (margin +6), short of the -7 spread (ESPN Week 4 scoreboard).
“Here's what I would say. Here's what I think we should do. Let's take the Texans, okay? Let's take New England, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, the Saints, and the Texans, okay? But we know it's Tuesday afternoon. The Super Contest lines come out Wednesday night. If these lines have moved, if any of these lines have moved considerably off the number we have right now, Texans minus 5 Saints plus 2.5 KC minus 6 or 6.5 Tampa Bay plus 9.5”
LAR 40, TB 55 — Buccaneers beat Rams 55-40 (margin +15), covering +9.5 (ESPN Week 4 scoreboard).
“I do like the Chiefs as six point favorites over the Lions.”
DET 30, KC 34 — Chiefs beat Lions 34-30 (margin +4), short of the -6 spread (ESPN Week 4 scoreboard).
“Let's take the Texans, okay?”
HOU 10, CAR 16 — Panthers beat Texans 16-10 (Texans margin -6), busting the -5 spread (ESPN Week 4 scoreboard).
“And the sharpest thing in the world is to take the Saints here. I mean, how do you not take that number? That is literally Vegas is giving you money if you're taking the Saints because they're pretty much saying to you, everyone in the world, come bet Sunday night on the Cowboys. Dude, we're taking it. That's a really smart line as a Saints. We're taking the Saints. Let me just throw it. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. Look at me. Look at me. We're agreeing. We're taking the Saints. Right now I have four games on the board that we're taking. New England minus seven. Tampa Bay plus whatever. You've got to stay at minus seven, though. I don't know about the minus seven and a half. All right. New England minus seven. Tampa Bay plus whatever. KC minus six and a half. We don't want the seven. Saints plus two and a half.”
NO 12, DAL 10 — Saints beat Cowboys 12-10, covering +2.5 as an outright winner (ESPN Week 4 scoreboard).
“I think the right play here, the Jags on the money line. yeah you're able to get uh anywhere from plus 105 maybe plus 110 if you shop uh even money at the worst but uh uh yeah the one and a half points isn going to be that much value no i like that i going to make that bet”
Jaguars 20, Titans 7 — The Jaguars beat the Titans 20-7, so Jacksonville's moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“I am going to go with Indianapolis Colts minus two over the Atlanta Falcons.”
Colts 27, Falcons 24 — The Colts beat the Falcons 27-24, a 3-point margin that covers Indianapolis -2 (ESPN box score).
“and then I also like Detroit plus seven against Philadelphia”
Lions 27, Eagles 24 — The Lions beat the Eagles 27-24, covering Detroit +7 (ESPN box score).
“My five picks that I like are Colts minus two, Cardinals plus two and a half, Lions plus seven, Rams minus three, and then Texans plus three on the road at the Chargers.”
Rams 20, Browns 13 — The Rams beat the Browns 20-13, a 7-point margin that covers Los Angeles -3 (ESPN box score).
“I like the Giants plus two and a half against the Buffalo Bills, and I like them better than any pick you have.”
Bills 28, Giants 14 — The Bills beat the Giants 28-14, well outside the New York +2.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I've bet the Colts a plus three.”
Colts 19, Titans 17 — The Colts beat the Titans 19-17, covering Indianapolis +3 (ESPN box score).
“i bet uh the panthers bucks under 49 and a half on thursday night”
Buccaneers 20, Panthers 14 — The Buccaneers beat the Panthers 20-14, a combined 34 points that stays under 49.5 (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Cardinals at plus 13 and a half.”
Ravens 23, Cardinals 17 — The Ravens beat the Cardinals 23-17, a 6-point margin that covers Arizona +13.5 (ESPN box score).
“Full disclosure, I bet the Bengals minus one.”
49ers 41, Bengals 17 — The 49ers beat the Bengals 41-17, well outside the Cincinnati -1 line (ESPN box score).
“I like the Pittsburgh Steelers as four-point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks.”
Seahawks 28, Steelers 26 — The Seahawks beat the Steelers 28-26, so Pittsburgh -4 busts (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Packers a plus three”
Packers 10, Bears 3 — The Packers beat the Bears 10-3, covering Green Bay +3 (ESPN box score).
“One of the games I bet on is Jacksonville I got it at plus 4 against Kansas City”
Chiefs 40, Jaguars 26 — The Chiefs beat the Jaguars 40-26, well outside the Jacksonville +4 line (ESPN box score).
“So Carolina is another team, plus three, that I am on.”
Rams 30, Panthers 27 — The Rams beat the Panthers 30-27, a 3-point margin that pushes exactly against Carolina +3 (ESPN box score).
“I got the Colts at plus 7”
Chargers 30, Colts 24 — The Chargers beat the Colts 30-24 in overtime, a 6-point margin that covers Indianapolis +7 (ESPN box score).
“It's the Texans plus seven against the Saints.”
Saints 30, Texans 28 — The Saints beat the Texans 30-28, a 2-point margin that covers Houston +7 (ESPN box score).
“Talk me off of Minnesota as a four-point favorite. Honestly, I do like Minnesota in this spot, being that it's a 1 o'clock game, and Kirk Cousins is good when it's 1 o'clock and no one cares about the game. But it's hard to back up. I mean, what have you seen from Kirk? I mean, even last year, the way he finished, and this year, how he's looking in preseason. I couldn't back him, especially Matt Ryan. He's got a new offensive line. I wouldn't go against Atlanta there. All right, so Simon, you... I do like Minnesota there. I'm saying that's a good play by you. I like that spot. All right. Well, then we're taking it. We're taking it.”
Vikings 28, Falcons 12 — The Vikings beat the Falcons 28-12, covering Minnesota -4 (ESPN box score).
“We've got Tampa at pick, and we've got the Colts plus 6.5.”
49ers 31, Buccaneers 7 — The 49ers beat the Buccaneers 31-7; Tampa Bay lost outright, busting the pick'em (ESPN box score).
“I'm investing my money, which I already have in a couple different places. I bought the Indianapolis Colts at 18 to 1. Where do you have the Colts right now? To win the whole thing? Yeah. We have them at 12 to 1.”
The Colts finished 7-9 and missed the playoffs in 2019; the Chiefs beat the 49ers 31-20 to win Super Bowl LIV, so the Colts-to-win-Super-Bowl bet loses.
“The other team that I was high on to win their conference, the Dallas Cowboys at 10-1.”
The Cowboys finished 8-8 and missed the 2019 playoffs; the 49ers represented the NFC in Super Bowl LIV, so the Cowboys-to-win-NFC bet loses.
“I feel like the biggest value might be on the Steelers to win the division. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, you're looking at the Bengals and the Ravens, and nobody's expecting anything from them. So I agree with you there. I think that's a pretty good bet. What do you have the Steelers to win the division at right now? They're minus $1.20. The Steelers to win the division are minus $1.20. So what are the Browns, like minus $2.20? They are minus $1.80. $1.80. So the Browns are minus 180. Ravens are probably minus 150. Steelers are minus 120. Well, the Ravens are plus. Oh, the Ravens are plus. Yeah, yeah. Okay. Yeah, give me the Steelers. Give me the Steelers all day in that scenario.”
The Ravens won the AFC North at 14-2 while the Steelers finished 8-8, so the Steelers-to-win-AFC-North bet loses.
“So you mentioned the Colts at 11 or 12 to 1. One of us sitting here at this table who's not revealing his chest here bet the Colts at 20 to 1. Oh. To win the Super Bowl. What do you think of that, Brad? I think that's sexy. I think that's an incredible value you've got at 20 to 1. It's not sexy. It's not. Brad, I have to disagree with you. you've been probably the greatest guest we've ever had on this podcast so far. But I have to disagree with you because it's throwing your money away. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick still live in the AFC. The Colts are not beating them. It's not happening. What do you think of— There's one team that has a potential to beat New England. It's Kansas City, and that's it. All right. I've got a couple things here. I distracted us because I wanted to finish one thing on the Browns. Because the other sort of popular bet is the Browns to win the AFC North, which I'm also against. Brad, what is your take? What are the odds on that, Chad? I can't remember. It's like plus. I think it's like, oh, no, they're the favorites. Yeah, they're the favorites. They're like minus, I want to say, 170, something like that. 160, 170. Oh, good Lord. You think if I'm going to ask the question, I would know the answer. I think storming Area 51 is a better idea. yeah it's like to me and you mentioned the nine and a half even though it's plus money um i still don't like it like i like them under i am just not buying this team i think they're goosed so high in their season win total that there's no way no way i can bet on them that's like you're basically betting with the public at this point it just feels like i've lost any value whatsoever on this team they are they are over inflated at every level to win the division to win the super bowl and i think on their season win total it's a pass for me it's a pass i'm actually i did wager on the browns over while i was uh at season i think i got it at 115 uh on the nine and a half win total Again I just keep going back to the third easiest projected NFL strength to schedule and that based on biggest projected win total So, you know, obviously there's an argument to me made, you know, there's a lack of consistency year to year in the NFL, and, you know, it's very unpredictable in terms of productivity across the board. But, again, at plus 115, I think there is value there. That is the only value wager tied to the Cleveland Browns organization this year. All right, so why do you think my pick with the Colts is sexy and Blackjack does not?”
The Colts finished 7-9 and missed the playoffs in 2019; the Chiefs beat the 49ers 31-20 to win Super Bowl LIV, so the Colts-to-win-Super-Bowl bet loses.
“I bet the Cowboys to win the NFC at 10-1.”
The Cowboys finished 8-8 and missed the 2019 playoffs; the 49ers represented the NFC in Super Bowl LIV, so the Cowboys-to-win-NFC bet loses.
“I bought the Boston Red Sox a 12-1 when they were sort of mired in a little bit of a streak.”
WSH 4, HOU 3 — The Washington Nationals won the 2019 World Series over Houston 4-3; the Red Sox finished 84-78, third in the AL East, and missed the playoffs, so Red Sox-to-win-the-World-Series loses.
“Do you want to know which team I've already bet on to win the Super Bowl? Which team? The Indianapolis Colts. Ooh. They've done some type of life. I bet them... I bet them, I think, it 18 to 1 and I look at that team and felt like they just like they figured out who they were”
Indianapolis finished the 2019 regular season 7-9 and missed the playoffs, so the Colts never reached Super Bowl LIV (won by Kansas City); the futures bet lost. (Indianapolis Colts 2019: 7-9)
“I like the Indianapolis Colts at about 16 to 1 to win the Super Bowl”
The Colts finished 7-9 and missed the 2019 NFL playoffs; the Chiefs beat the 49ers 31-20 in Super Bowl LIV, so the Colts-to-win-the-Super-Bowl future loses.
“here's what I'm doing this is how I want to end the podcast two things I'm going with the Colts to win the Super Bowl at about 16 to 1 I am going to go with the Browns under 9”
The 2019 Cleveland Browns finished 6-10, under the 9-win line, so the under cashes.
“I'm going with Virginia, minus five and a half”
63-62 — Virginia beat Auburn 63-62 in the 2019 Final Four national semifinal on April 6, 2019, a margin of +1, which does not cover the -5.5 spread, so the Virginia -5.5 bet loses.
“I love that logic. I have Houston at 70-1 to win the title. So they're two-and-a-half point dogs at Kentucky this weekend. I bet Kentucky. I hedged a little bit and I bet Kentucky at two-and-a-half. Blackjack, why are you making that face? There's nothing wrong with what I did.”
62-58 — Kentucky beat Houston 62-58 in the Sweet 16 on Mar 29, 2019, a 4-point margin, covering -2.5.
“All right. So right now, Schwartz and Blackjack are on the opposite sides of Wisconsin, Oregon. And I am on the opposite side of UC Irvine and Kansas State. I have UC Irvine. Blackjack and Paul both have Kansas State. We can move on to the next region which includes Paula Duca In Northeastern area It just a funky line What are you checking on your phone”
70-64 — UC Irvine upset Kansas State 70-64 in the first round on Mar 22, 2019, so UC Irvine ML won.
“So you like Wofford there? I do. The Terriers? You want to bet this one, too? I like Wofford at minus three, sure. Another 50? Yeah. Another 50? Let's do it. Okay. Pauly, you want in on that? Oh, I like the Pirates. I like Wofford. Wow. Yeah. All right, so Jeff and I will both bet you together. I don't know how we do that.”
84-68 — Wofford beat Seton Hall 84-68 on Mar 21, 2019, a 16-point margin, easily covering -3.
“I'm just waiting to see Zion and Taco Fall go at it in the second round game. Hopefully UCF wins, beats VCU, and Zion tries to dunk on 7-7 Taco Fall. That's all I want to see. You don't think UCF beats VCU? I don't. Oh, I do. Oh, sorry, bet. You want to do it again? Bet me 50 bucks. All right, fine, let's do it.”
73-58 — UCF beat VCU 73-58 in the first round on Mar 22, 2019, so UCF ML won.
“I went and bet Marquette, I bet Kansas State, and I bet Washington, [42:20] all at more than 100 to win the college basketball title”
Virginia won the 2019 NCAA championship on April 8, 2019; Marquette was eliminated in the first round by Murray State, so this futures bet loses.
“I went and bet Marquette, I bet Kansas State, and I bet Washington, [42:20] all at more than 100 to win the college basketball title”
Virginia won the 2019 NCAA championship on April 8, 2019; Kansas State was eliminated in the first round by UC Irvine, so this futures bet loses.
“I went and bet Marquette, I bet Kansas State, and I bet Washington, [42:20] all at more than 100 to win the college basketball title”
Virginia won the 2019 NCAA championship on April 8, 2019; Washington was eliminated in the second round by North Carolina, so this futures bet loses.
“To run it down, we are both on Team LeBron at minus three and a half.”
178-164 — Team LeBron beat Team Giannis 178-164 in the 2019 NBA All-Star Game; margin of 14 covers the -3.5 line (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go with John Collins.”
Hamidou Diallo won the 2019 NBA Slam Dunk Contest, not John Collins, so this futures bet loses.
“Who wins the three-point contest? To be honest, I like Steph Curry. Hmm. You got nothing here, do you? Too many names. Hold on. Let me look up the odds here. You going to take Larry Bird? Is he doing it? Devin Booker plus 520. Steph is plus 220. How do you not go with Seth Curry? That's where I'm going. Yeah. I like that. Plus 466.”
Joe Harris beat Stephen Curry in the final of the 2019 NBA Three-Point Contest; Seth Curry was eliminated in the first round, so this futures bet loses.
“so there's a thing called the skills contest apparently you can bet on it who's gonna win that blackjack luka donchich this contest is tailor-made for luka donchich he's fast he's got great handles he can pass the ball very accurately and he's a good enough shooter to win it there's A lot of really talented guys in this, but I think you need to have the ability to do this stuff, almost all of it on the first try. We see a lot of guys get hung up when they're trying to pass the ball into the net there. If you miss that a few times, your time is just not going to be good enough to win it. Doncic, I think, has the best vision and passing of anyone in this. He's quick. I Luka Doncic here.”
Jayson Tatum won the 2019 NBA Skills Challenge (beating Mike Conley, then Nikola Jokic, then the Trae Young/Luka Doncic semifinal winner in the final); Luka Doncic did not win, so this futures bet loses.
“I am decidedly on the side of anybody who taking the Rams either honestly I might take them on the money line but I certainly liking them at two and a half and if it gets back to Sunday and I can get him at three all the better”
NE 13, LAR 3 — Rams lost to the Patriots 3-13 in Super Bowl LIII, a 10-point margin, so the +2.5 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“But I'm going to go with Stephen Gostkowski. [16:51] The opening, his first kickoff is going to be a plus. [16:55] It's a plus 180. [16:56] That will be a touchback. [16:57] I'm going with yes.”
The Patriots received the opening kickoff of Super Bowl LIII (Cordarrelle Patterson returned it), meaning the Rams' Greg Zuerlein, not Stephen Gostkowski, kicked off first, so Gostkowski never had an opening-kickoff touchback chance (ESPN/Wikipedia game recap).
“I have Sony Michel over 72.5 rushing yards.”
Sony Michel rushed for 94 yards in Super Bowl LIII, clearing the 72.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Sony Michel: 94 rushing yards)
“so I'm taking Robert Woods over 69.5 yards.”
Robert Woods caught 5 passes for 70 receiving yards in Super Bowl LIII, clearing the 69.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Robert Woods: 5 rec, 70 receiving yards)
“No, I might actually go the Rams on the money line.”
NE 13, LAR 3 — Rams lost to the Patriots 3-13 in Super Bowl LIII; the Rams moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“The Saints are now three-point favorites. Uh-huh. And that's when I bet them.”
LAR 26-23 — Rams beat Saints 26-23 in OT in the NFC Championship; New Orleans' -3 margin exactly matches the -3 spread, a push (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Chiefs at minus three plus 100 on Sunday night. I got a really good number.”
NE 37-31 — Patriots beat Chiefs 37-31 in OT in the AFC Championship; Kansas City lost by 6, outside the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“And so I asked Bob Scucci again on the favorites on Wednesday. I'm like, where's the floor? He said 54 and a half. As soon as it got to 54 and a half, I bet it. It's now back up to 55, 55 and a half. I bet the over.”
NE 37-31 — Patriots beat Chiefs 37-31 in OT in the AFC Championship; the combined 68 points clears the 54.5 total (ESPN box score).
“So I want the Kansas City Chiefs, but I want them at two and a half because I know it's going there and you're hesitating, and I feel it's unfair to take them at three when I know it's going to be at two and a half.”
NE 37-31 — Patriots beat Chiefs 37-31 in OT in the AFC Championship; Kansas City lost by 6, outside the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I would like to bet you in this game You want to bet straight up Just head to head Yeah because I have decided I like the Colts at five and a half All right You want to bet a hundred bucks on it Sure Let do it All right”
KC 31-13 — Chiefs beat Colts 31-13 in the Divisional Round; Indianapolis lost by 18, well outside the +5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Philadelphia at New Orleans, Saints by eight. You go first. I think the Saints are going to kill him. I'm on the Eagles. To be fair, I took the Eagles when it opened to plus 10. 10 is too many points to give Big Dick Nick. I'm looking at this like a couple things here. Number one, don't forget, as we all know, I bet the Saints 18 to 1 to win the Super Bowl way back in the summer. So I do have a couple strategies here. Like if this game – I could start betting the Eagles on the money line now because I might start hedging. Wait until it starts. Well, then I was going to wait until like the Saints are up 7-0 and it's plus 500. And I'll put like less money down on the Eagles to win it all. And I will win more money than if the Saints win the Super Bowl. So I am going to live bet the Eagles at plus whatever when they're losing so I can hedge. I think the Bears exposed so many things In the Eagles defense In their loss In their loss And also exposed what they didn't do That the Saints will do There's two things One, Mitch Trubisky threw over the top of that defense And exposed those defensive backs And Drew Brees, newsflash Better than Mitch Trubisky, right? So all the things that Mitch Trubisky did really well Did really well But he hasn't been throwing the ball downfield a lot Did really well Drew Brees will have the chance to do with a much, much better receiving core. Number one. Number two, what the Bears didn't do that they should have done that would have won them the game is get the ball to Tariq Cohn. He was their best playmaker. Get him in space. Get him on the edge. Those defensive backs would have had no chance against him. Drew Brees is going to get the ball to Alvin Kamara. This Saints team is just going to be much better. Much, much better offensively than the Eagles. Bears also would have won if they got a stop on fourth down. True. Greatest defense ever to step foot on a football field. That's true. Couldn't get a fourth down stop. I agree. Here's my problem. Everything you... That is right in terms of the Eagles defense, that secondary, a mess. I mean, who the hell even knows who they trot out week to week in the secondary anymore? It's disastrous. Better receivers, better playmakers, better quarterback. I don't know, man. I don't know. I have an apprehension. Neither was your take on the Patriots. It was? No, it wasn't. No, it wasn't. I think the number is too short for a team at home that has been to the Super Bowl many years and has proven it can compete. That doesn't matter this year. And has proven it can compete. Not the same team, sugar. I'm giving up the benefit of the doubt. It ain't the same team. Well, part of it is the same team. Okay. It's still not the same team. I'm betting the number. That's the point. Oh, you're betting the number. So telling me I don't know is not anything. I'm afraid of standing in front of Big Dick Nick. That's what I'm afraid of. I'm afraid to get in front of that train. All right? I don't know what it is, Chad, but the Eagles put him under center, and shit just works. It just does. I don't know, man. Yeah, I think the Saints win the game. Do I think they roll them? No. I don't know, man. Also, people are listening to this podcast to make decisions. I'm talking. Your reasoning is, I don't know. Big Dick Nick. I can't get in front of that tree. I can't because sometimes in sports, Chad, these things just happen. Okay? Sometimes you just get a feeling about something. Like last week when I told you the Bears kicking game sucked and they were going to leave points on the field. I told you that. Remember? No. Yeah. Well, I did. Go back and listen to it. I don't know. I have a problem laying over a touchdown with Nick Foles there. that team is markedly better with him it's inexplicable also the Eagles have this weird fucking thing where you remember last year in the playoffs they were wearing the dog masks the fact that they were an underdog at home as the one seed motivated that team you don't think they're going to be motivated by the fact that the Saints just fucking curb stomped them earlier this year that they not going to go in there and at least make this a game Sean Payton this week Yeah I know The trophy the money the ring Wheeled in the Lombardi Trophy. I read ESPN too. On top of a stack of $225,000 in cash. Said, you want this? Go win three fucking games. It's $200,000 in cash. $225,000. It was $225,000. They get $2,01 if they win the whole thing. Didn't read the story closely enough. $225. I'm going to slap you. $50? What's the number we're betting on here? Eight? Yeah. Yeah, fine. Let's do it.”
NO 20-14 — Saints beat Eagles 20-14 in the Divisional Round; New Orleans won by only 6, short of the -8 spread (ESPN box score).
“Chicago White Sox over 74 and a half wins. I don't hate that. Shine John Jay. Friends with? Manny Machado. Signed Yonder Alonzo. Brother-in-law of Manny Machado. One of two teams rumored to be in the Manny Machado sweepstakes. Yeah, I like they're over even without Machado. I'm hedging. I'm hedging. I'm betting. I'm betting. I'm betting on the White Sox. I'm betting.”
The White Sox finished the 2019 regular season 72-89, under the 74.5 win total (ESPN MLB standings).
“So I'm going with the Patriots at minus four.”
NE 41-28 — New England Patriots beat Los Angeles Chargers 41-28 in the AFC Divisional Round, a margin of +13, covering the -4 spread (ESPN box score).
“Houston minus one against Indy.”
IND 21-7 — Indianapolis Colts beat Houston Texans 21-7 in the AFC Wild Card game; Texans lost outright, so -1 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Chicago at San Francisco. Bears by four. Chicago. Bears. I think the Bears too”
SF 9, CHI 14 — Bears beat 49ers 14-9; Chicago -4 covers (ESPN box score).
“Pittsburgh at New Orleans, Saints by six. I'm going to give you a little guess. What's the gift? Because I don't have a feel for this. Saints. I'm not going to argue with you. Love the Saints. I love the Saints all year long. Love the Saints.”
NO 31, PIT 28 — Saints beat Steelers 31-28; New Orleans -6 busts (ESPN box score).
“I've already bet the Seahawks on the money line to win this game.”
SEA 38, KC 31 — Seahawks beat Chiefs 38-31; Seattle moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Seattle plus 115 boom look at book it done yeah you like that too right I love it yeah I mean”
SEA 38, KC 31 — Seahawks beat Chiefs 38-31; Seattle moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“I like the Saints. [40:48] I'm going to take them on the spread, not the money line, just because why not get the points for some scooch roulette? [40:52] I'll bet them on the money line for real money, but in scooch roulette, I want the cushion.”
NO 31, PIT 28 — Saints beat Steelers 31-28; New Orleans moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“You know what I do know? I know I'm making a pick. And I know I'm choosing Indianapolis to win. To win. Okay? To win. Against the New York Giants. Oh, at home, yeah. Oh, yeah. I'm seeing minus 440. There's not much to add to this.”
IND 28, NYG 27 — Colts beat Giants 28-27; Indianapolis moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Okay. We'll just get it out of the way. Just to ching it, New England. We're on the Chargers. Look, I freaking love the Chargers. Yeah, I love the Chargers too. So it's my pick now, right? Yeah, I know. Yeah, I just – I didn't know what you picked. Yeah, just ring the bell and move on, right? Yeah, ring it. Move on, New England. New England, move on. 13 points against Buffalo. Let's just move on. Honest to God, I don't know why that wasn't the first pick. Yeah, I mean, it was going to be one of our picks, right? At some point, yeah. I was just waiting to see what kind of happened. I think it was always in our back pocket. Someone's got to pick that game. It's like a suicide pool, only we could use them every week to try to win money. By the way, I looked at the odds. I looked at the money line number. I think they were a minus 1,100. That's going to kill our parlay. We got to win, though, right? You just got to win, man. No, I'm sorry. Minus 1,300. They're minus 1,300 at William Hill, minus 800 at five dimes.”
NE 24, BUF 12 — Patriots beat Bills 24-12; New England moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Miami at Minnesota Vikings by seven. She said Miami at Minnesota Vikings by seven. You don't have to shout. Can you hear me? It's like I'm translating the beautiful and talented Georgina and her lovely British lilt into blackjack speak. I hate this game. I hate these teams. I hate this number. I hate everything about this. So we're going to take Miami.”
MIN 41, MIA 17 — Vikings beat Dolphins 41-17; Miami +7 busts (ESPN box score).
“We're taking the Colts. We're taking the Colts. Cleveland plus three against Denver. Miami plus seven against Minnesota. Indy minus three against Dallas. Seattle minus four and a half against San Francisco. So New England Patriots minus two and a half at Pittsburgh.”
IND 23, DAL 0 — Colts beat Cowboys 23-0; Indianapolis -3 covers (ESPN box score).
“New England at Pittsburgh. Patriots by two and a half. She just said the Patriots by two and a half in Pittsburgh. New England. No no no no no New England I will not do it New England I will not do it You listen to me You listen to me No you listen to me No, no. I'm going to give you a quote from Bob Scucci that I'm looking at right now on my phone. Quote, I'd hate to be going against Bill Belichick this week after he gave one away like last week. Keep that in mind. End quote. The New England Patriots are the bet from here until they either get eliminated or win the damn Super Bowl. Bet New England.”
PIT 17, NE 10 — Steelers beat Patriots 17-10; New England -2.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“give me the colts give me the colts minus three”
IND 23, DAL 0 — Indianapolis Colts beat Dallas Cowboys 23-0, covering the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“We have the Chicago Bears to beat the Green Bay Packers.”
CHI 24, GB 17 — Chicago Bears beat Green Bay Packers 24-17; Bears moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“We are including the University of Michigan in our nine-team Moneyline Parlay.”
MICH 70, WMU 62 — Michigan beat Western Michigan 70-62 on Dec 15, 2018; Michigan moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“It is a tough one. Like, do I do Seattle? Do I do Jacksonville? You know what the crazy part is? We're picking these on the money line and it's still tough. Yes, Jacksonville. But it is Jacksonville. I agree. It's 100% Jacksonville. It has to be right. This Redskins team. Wow. Mark Sanchez.”
WAS 16, JAX 13 — Washington Redskins beat Jacksonville Jaguars 16-13; Jaguars moneyline busted (ESPN box score).
“That is our nine parlay choices Are you ready Here we go We have Kansas City on the money line against the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday night We have the Baltimore Ravens on the money line to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We have the Chicago Bears to beat the Green Bay Packers. Jeff with a wild card taking the under 47 in the Colts-Cowboys game. We have App State. I don't even know who they're playing. Who is MTSU? Middle Tennessee State. This weekend, Paul chose them to win on the Moneyline. Chad chose Michigan basketball to beat Western Michigan on the Moneyline on Saturday, 2 o'clock at Chrysler Arena. Jeff has Fresno State because they care more about the bowl than Arizona State in Las Vegas. Paulie chose the Rams over the Eagles. Again, Moneyline. Chad Millman from the Action Network chose the Jacksonville Jaguars to beat the Washington Redskins on the Moneyline. Reminder, we are going for the Moneyline picks because we haven't won anything all year playing against the spread. I'm making this a parlay right now.”
Parlay busts: Chargers beat Chiefs 29-28 (Chiefs ML lost); Ravens beat Buccaneers 20-12 (won); Bears beat Packers 24-17 (won); Colts beat Cowboys 23-0, under 47 hit (won); Appalachian State beat Middle Tennessee 45-13 (won); Michigan beat Western Michigan 70-62 (won); Fresno State beat Arizona State 31-20 (won); Eagles beat Rams 30-23 (Rams ML lost); Redskins beat Jaguars 16-13 (Jaguars ML lost) — three losing legs sink the 9-team parlay.
“bye week they're three and one they've been scoring points i was very impressed with the Bears win because I thought when that game went to overtime that team was cooked I mean that was a monumental collapse to get into overtime when you up 10 with a minute 58 to go And still they rallied to win the game I think this is a win for the Giants, and I don't really mind laying the three and a half. Okay.”
NYG 40, WAS 16 — New York Giants beat Washington Redskins 40-16, covering the -3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Most of that money was at plus eight and a half, a little bit at plus eight. and then the public, like you said, everyone else is going to be on the Saints on this one. This is a big number to lay on the road. We've talked about the Saints all year on laying these big numbers on the road. They've been getting there quite a bit with the exception of last week in Dallas, but this is another real big number to lay against a team that can put up a lot of points. So I think the Buccaneers is probably the more value at plus eight here. I'm going to stick to my principles this week, and I'm going to pick the Buccaneers.”
NO 28, TB 14 — New Orleans Saints beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28-14; Buccaneers lost by 14, busting the +8 spread (ESPN box score).
“Pittsburgh, 11 points on the road at Oakland. You have to take the Raiders. Double-digit dog at home. I think we'll get some pretty good surprising two-way action on this one. And the fact that the Steelers came up short against the Chargers when everybody was trying to get out on the late game Sunday night, they got burned by the Steelers. So now to lay double digits on the road, even against a really, really bad team, at least it'll slow the public down just a little bit. Just enough so that this won't be the monster game that it normally would have been. So that kind of saved us a little bit. But at 11, I think the sharp guys will come in on it, and I think this number comes down a little bit. I'm going to hit Oakland. Yeah.”
OAK 24, PIT 21 — Oakland Raiders beat Pittsburgh Steelers 24-21 outright, easily covering the +11 spread (ESPN box score).
“Alright so our games Colts minus 4 on the road That's a fucking error That's the best game we've got Chad The Jaguars quit Denver minus 4.5 on the road”
DEN 24, CIN 10 — Broncos beat Bengals 24-10, winning by 14, covering the -4.5 line.
“Alright so our games Colts minus 4 on the road That's a fucking error That's the best game we've got Chad The Jaguars quit Denver minus 4.5 on the road Jeff Driscoll The Rams the Lions plus nine and a half at home. That's a good one. That's the right side.”
LAR 30, DET 16 — Rams beat Lions 30-16; Detroit lost by 14, outside the +9.5 line, so Lions +9.5 busts.
“I'm going to take the Detroit Rock City Lions [49:23] plus 10 [49:24] against the Los Angeles Rams”
LAR 30, DET 16 — Rams beat Lions 30-16; Detroit lost by 14, well outside the +10 line, so Lions +10 busts.
“I am going to go with the Minnesota Vikings plus seven against the New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon.”
NE 24, MIN 10 — Patriots beat Vikings 24-10; Minnesota margin -14 fails the +7 line (ESPN final).
“Give me Memphis plus three-and-a-half.”
UCF 56, MEM 41 — UCF beat Memphis 56-41 in the AAC Championship; Memphis margin -15 fails the +3.5 line (ESPN final).
“All right, here's what we got. Washington Redskins plus 7 against the Dallas Cowboys. Atlanta Falcons plus 13 against the New Orleans Saints. Jacksonville Jaguars minus three at Buffalo. That's three so far. New England Patriots minus nine and a half at the New Yorker. The Pittsburgh Steelers minus three at the Denver Broncos.”
DEN 24, PIT 17 — Broncos beat Steelers 24-17; Pittsburgh margin -7 fails the -3 line (ESPN final).
“We got five picks. We made it through that. It got dicey at the end. Are you ready? We got the Jacksonville Jaguars plus five and a half against the Steelers.”
PIT 20, JAX 16 — Pittsburgh beat Jacksonville 20-16; Jaguars lost by only 4, covering the +5.5 line (ESPN box score).
“We have the Los Angeles Chargers. minus seven against the Broncos.”
LAC 22, DEN 23 — Denver beat the LA Chargers 23-22 on a walk-off field goal; Chargers lost outright as a -7 favorite, busting the spread (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Redskins plus three.”
WSH 21, HOU 23 — Houston beat Washington 23-21; Redskins lost by 2, covering the +3 line (ESPN box score).
“I think I'm going to go with the Falcons. Are you at three or three and a half? I'm at three minus 20. All right. I'm going with the Falcons at minus three.”
ATL 19, DAL 22 — Dallas beat Atlanta 22-19; Falcons lost outright as a -3 favorite, busting the spread (ESPN box score).
“I am going to go with the Seattle Super Seahawks. Yep. Minus two and a half over the Green Bay Packers.”
SEA 27, GB 24 — Seattle beat Green Bay 27-24; Seahawks won by 3, covering the -2.5 line (ESPN box score).
“We're laying six and a half with the Jets.”
NYJ 10, BUF 41 — Buffalo beat New York 41-10; the Jets lost outright as a -6.5 favorite, busting the spread (ESPN box score).
“Miami at Green Bay. Packers by nine and a half. How about this one? I know. I know. You got that shit-eating grin on your face right now. I mean, you know what I want to do. You want to take Aaron Rodgers, right? Fuck no. At nine and a half? Are you kidding me? Let me tell you something, Chad. You are sitting here and telling me right now that you want to take the Miami Dolphins. And the Brocketship. This? You want to get on that Brocketship. Strap yourself in, brother. And ride it to the moon. I'm going to need a lot of these drinks. Aaron Rodgers is coming off of two losses in a row. That team is battered. They need to get back to the winning ways, and they're going home to Lambeau Field. Not only do you want the Brocketship, you want him on the road going from Miami to Lambeau Field. You are outside of your mind. We're not taking the Brocketship. There's no way. Aaron Rodgers, lay the points. This feels like a no. So we're going to take the Dolphins? Yeah, all right. We are a clown show. Okay. It's too many points. It's way too many points. It's too many points. Are you kidding me? Nine and a half? Yeah, I'm with you. We got three games and lucky us. It's too much. We're on the Dolphins, Cardinals, and Jaguars.”
GB 31, MIA 12 — Green Bay beat Miami 31-12; Dolphins lost by 19, well beyond the +9.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Atlanta minus four. Atlanta, massive win against the Redskins on the road. They're back. Matty Ice. Oh, my God. They're so good. They've adjusted. It's amazing. Can you believe what they can do? The Browns can't score. They're in chaos. What are we going to do? They're losers again. They're on the road. They're at home. They're underdogs, whatever. Give me the Cleveland Browns. And you're going to take the Browns? 100%. You probably want to wait. you'll probably get some better numbers later in the week. I want to get the best of the number. I don't want to. Remember, the public is flushed with money right now. So they are going to come in with both fists betting all these favorites this week. And that is probably the most lopsided game on the board. I went to four and a half actually shortly before we started the podcast. So I think we're the only four and a half. I really want to go to five and five and a half because I think the wise guys are probably going to wait until later in the week. So I might as well get people to lay five, five and a half early and then move it down later in the week. Do it. Do it right now? Go on. Bang. Done. Minus five. There we go. We got it.”
CLE 28, ATL 16 — Browns beat Falcons 28-16 outright, covering Browns +5 (ESPN box score).
“Green Bay Packers minus nine and a half at home against the Miami Dolphins. Big number for a struggling team. Yeah. Struggling team with a lot of injuries. Going up against a Dolphins team that has a pretty good defense. The problem is they have no offense. but it's a big number to be given the Dolphins. And the week after the books get beat, you're going to see a lot of inflated lines on a lot of the favorites. It's just kind of a combination of the bookmakers trying to predict where the bettors are going to come in on, and then the bettors not only laying it, but laying more than they would normally lay because they have a little more money to spend. So you're going to see if you're a dog better, this is the week. This is the week for you. That so interesting I want to write that down because you basically just gave us a little hint there Right Yeah. Yep. Okay. I think I know where the value is. Make a note. Make a note of that. I have made a note. I literally opened the notes app in my phone and I wrote that down. Multitasking. Yep. All right. So I'm taking the dolphins.”
GB 31, MIA 12 — Packers beat Dolphins 31-12, a 19-point margin that doesn't cover Dolphins +9.5, so this pick busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm also going to take the Seattle Seahawks as 10-point dogs on the road against the Los Angeles Rams.”
LAR 36, SEA 31 — Rams beat Seahawks 36-31, a 5-point margin that covers Seahawks +10 (ESPN box score).
“i going with the jacksonville jaguars at plus three”
IND 29, JAX 26 — Colts beat Jaguars 29-26, a 3-point margin that exactly matches Jaguars +3, so this pick pushes (ESPN box score).
“We like the Washington Redskins minus one and a half against the Atlanta Falcons”
ATL 38, WSH 14 — Falcons beat Redskins 38-14; Redskins -1.5 needed to win, so this pick busts (ESPN box score).
“Detroit at Minnesota. Vikings by four and a half. Vikings done. Let's go.”
MIN 24, DET 9 — Vikings beat Lions 24-9, a 15-point margin that covers Vikings -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle. Seahawks by two. This is a really hard game. This is a really, really hard game. Agreed. Agreed. We talk about flexibility, right? Yep. I love the Chargers in this game.”
LAC 25, SEA 17 — Chargers beat Seahawks 25-17 outright, covering Chargers +2 (ESPN box score).
“We like the New Orleans Saints minus one and a half against the Los Angeles Rams”
NO 45, LAR 35 — Saints beat Rams 45-35, a 10-point margin that covers Saints -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“And we like the Tennessee Titans plus six and a half against the Dallas Cowboys.”
TEN 28, DAL 14 — Titans beat Cowboys 28-14 outright, covering Titans +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“i love this next game baltimore ravens minus three at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers Oh my goodness Are the Baltimore Ravens undervalued as the home favorite in this game Give me the Ravens.”
PIT 23, BAL 16 — Steelers beat Ravens 23-16 at home; Ravens -3 needed to win, so this pick busts (ESPN box score).
“Washington Redskins minus one and a half point favorites at home against the Atlanta Falcons. Do you send Alex Smith a holiday card every year? Do I what? Do you send Alex Smith a holiday card every year? I'm going to. how do you not bet the Redskins? Their defense is pretty good, and they just keep winning. Why wouldn't I bet them as a short home favorite against a team that I don't like at all? All Alex Smith does is win football games in the regular season. All Alex Smith does is win football games in the regular season. Atlanta's off the bye week. Yeah, great. Atlanta's now outside, though, in Washington. Their defense, the bye week doesn't help. They have still three defensive starters. Give me an underachieving team going on the road, playing outside when they're built for a fast track against a team with a good defense, a quarterback who doesn't make mistakes, and a team that consistently wins. Yeah, I'll take that as a short home favorite.”
WSH 14, ATL 38 — Falcons beat Redskins 38-14; Washington's -24 margin misses the -1.5 line (ESPN box score).
“LA Chargers plus one at Seattle”
SEA 17, LAC 25 — Chargers beat Seahawks 25-17; Los Angeles' +8 margin covers the +1 line (ESPN box score).
“Penn State plus 10 at Michigan.”
MICH 42, PSU 7 — Michigan beat Penn State 42-7; Penn State's -35 margin misses the +10 line (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Baker Mayfield plus eight against the Kansas City Chiefs at home.”
CLE 21, KC 37 — Chiefs beat Browns 37-21; Cleveland's -16 margin misses the +8 line (ESPN box score).
“Here we go, guys. We've got a parlay. Are you ready? You want to hear it? Yes, maybe. New Orleans Saints plus one against the Los Angeles Rams. Tennessee Titans plus six against Dallas. I love that pick. Washington Redskins minus one versus the Atlanta Falcons. They are in Washington. Tampa Bay plus seven versus the Carolina Panthers. Baltimore minus three against the Steelers. The L.A. Chargers on the road at Seattle. One point dogs. The L.A. Chargers plus one. Arizona Wildcats minus four. Pac-12 after dark Friday night versus the Colorado Buffaloes. Penn State Nittany Lions plus 10 against the anemic offense yet stellar defense of the Michigan Wolverines The Cleveland Browns at home Eight underdogs versus the high-flying Kansas City Chiefs. I don't mean to rub it in, Chad. Yeah. But the Charlotte 49ers beat Southern Miss plus the points, like I told Jeff Schwartz they would. That's our encore. here's what I want people to do are you ready? as everybody knows we're going to put $20 each on this 19 parlay if you do the same you will win $19,000 one time generally $19,000 depending on the juice and whatever”
Parlay busts: Saints +1 won (NO 45, LAR 35); Titans +6 won (TEN 28, DAL 14); Redskins -1 lost (ATL 38, WSH 14); Buccaneers +7 lost (CAR 42, TB 28); Ravens -3 lost (PIT 23, BAL 16); Chargers +1 won (LAC 25, SEA 17); Arizona -4 won (ARIZ 42, COLO 34); Penn State +10 lost (MICH 42, PSU 7); Browns +8 lost (KC 37, CLE 21); with four legs lost the nine-team parlay busts (ESPN box scores).
“Seattle at Detroit. Lions by three. Boom. Boom. Boom. from detroit city baby yep detroit rock city you tell me yours i tell you mine how all right baby um how funny is it the lions have found an identity as like a running team here Like they hadn had a hundred yard rusher since what was it Reggie Bush I think And now they've got Kerryon Johnson and it's added some balance to this team. Kerryon, my wayward side. This is making me feel a lot better about what we're doing later. Kerryon Johnson has added a lot of balance to that team. It's been very impressive. The defense has gotten better week to week under Matt Patricia. There's no reason not to like the Lions here. I actually can't figure out why the line isn't higher. I feel like this is a Russell Wilson off a bye line. That's it. I'm getting a short home favorite and a team that's better. People are just assuming that Russell Wilson is going to backdoor this thing. But the Lions defense is pretty good, man. I think it's going to be tough for them to do. I agree. Love this game. All right. Put it on the board. We got two. We got two.”
DET 14, SEA 28 — Seahawks beat Lions 28-14; Detroit's -14 margin misses the -3 line (ESPN box score).
“Broncos at Chiefs. I know – I so know what side I'm taking here. You almost have to take the Broncos. Got to. You have to. Absolutely have to, yes. I mean, the – What do you have? What's your number right now? What's your number right now? We're minus 10. Wow, double digits. Minus 10, yeah. Perfect negative 10.”
KC 30, DEN 23 — Chiefs beat Broncos 30-23; Denver's -7 margin covers the +10 line (ESPN box score).
“Seahawks at Lions. This is, boy, this Lions team. Defense is turning it around. Carry on Johnson. Is that his name? Yep. Carry on Johnson. I follow football. He's really good. Giving Matt Stafford some support. Seahawks are basically Russell Wilson. I think, I think, I'm just convincing myself right now to bet the Lions. A very short home favorite. What do you think of that? Yeah, I agree with you, and we've already gotten some pretty sharp money on the Lions as well. So Seahawks still carry a little appeal from the betting public. And the Lions, even though some of the guys like yourself, you know, you sharp guys, pick up on those little things, the public hasn't jumped on them quite yet. So I think three's pretty solid. But the fact that the wise guys already laid three tells me it going to go up but not necessarily just from public money I think the wise guys are on the same side as you on this one Do you think I should bet this Ravens game We're back to the Ravens? Well, I'm allegedly going through the games in my alleged sports book. And it just, you know, I just clicked yes on the Lions. I just clicked yes on the Broncos and passing the Ravens game.”
DET 14, SEA 28 — Seahawks beat Lions 28-14; Detroit's -14 margin misses the -3 line (ESPN box score).
“but we're at the vikings minus one right now i bet the vikings moved it i bet the vikings i i bet”
MIN 20, NO 30 — Saints beat Vikings 30-20; Minnesota's -10 margin misses the -1 line (ESPN box score).
“That's funny. Well I'll tell you what I may I may or may not while you were talking have allegedly bet this next game plus two others. Your attention, please. Chad is making a bet, allegedly. This next game is the Packers at Rams, Packers plus nine, the largest dog that Aaron Rodgers has ever been.”
LAR 29, GB 27 — Rams beat Packers 29-27; Green Bay's -2 margin covers the +9 line (ESPN box score).
“Parlay, boys. The Los Angeles Rams are nine-point favorites against the Green Bay Packers. This is the largest spread in Aaron Rodgers' career. They opened at 10. It's now nine. The early money has come in on Green Bay. The Millman money is coming in on Green Bay. Don't bring nine points into my house When Aaron Rodgers has the ball I don't care if he's playing on one leg I don't care if his defense can't stop anybody I don't care if you can't name a running back Who's played for Green Bay for the last decade Since before Dorsey Levin's Wow James Starks nice job paul give me your rogers plus nine points you can get it as high as 10 some places and it's on the app”
LAR 29, GB 27 — Rams beat Packers 29-27; Green Bay's -2 margin covers the +9 line (ESPN box score).
“against the Ravens and you know they only allowed 23 points and one of those was it was a late touchdown I like the Vikings overall in this game It a pick right now but the under seems like a solid play Me too Me too I like the Vikings. I like the under. In fact, in fact, boys, let's double down. Yeah, I like this. Wow. Let's do it. Let's go Minnesota. Vikings in the under.”
MIN 20, NO 30 — Saints beat Vikings 30-20; Minnesota's moneyline bet busts (ESPN box score).
“A nine-team parlay. Nine players. Wow. Well done. Nine-team parlay to win $20,000. Here we go, boys. These are our picks. Are you ready? Are you ready? Yes. Detroit, minus 2.5 against Seattle. Denver plus 10 against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs Green Bay plus 9 against the undefeated Los Angeles Rams Cleveland plus 8.5 against the Pittsburgh Steelers up and by New Orleans and Minnesota two teams that can light it up like no other teams in the NFL under 52 Minnesota at home they're struggling every week And we're taking them against the New Orleans Saints. And we've won five in a row. UCLA, they don't even know who's playing quarterback. But we're taking them at plus 10. Stanford minus three and a half versus Washington State. The New York football Giants. One and five against the first place Washington Redskins at home. We're taking the Giants, even though we've lost every single bet we've placed in the Giants this year.”
Parlay busts: Lions -2.5 lost (SEA 28, DET 14); Broncos +10 won (KC 30, DEN 23); Packers +9 won (LAR 29, GB 27); Browns +8.5 lost (PIT 33, CLE 18); Saints/Vikings under 52 won (NO 30, MIN 20); UCLA +10 lost (Utah 41, UCLA 10); Stanford -3.5 lost (WSU 41, Stanford 38); with four legs already lost the nine-team parlay busts regardless of the two unstated-line legs (ESPN box scores).
“Bears plus three. Here's what we should do. Here's what we should do. I gave you the Browns plus three. You give me the Bears plus three. whoever loses those games has to pay for the movie and popcorn and maybe a soda alright you got a deal Bears plus three put it on the board”
NE 38, CHI 31 — Patriots beat Bears 38-31; Chicago Bears +3 loses by 7, busts (ESPN box score).
“Dallas at Washington. Washington by two. I like the Redskins. Me too.”
WSH 20, DAL 17 — Redskins beat Cowboys 20-17; Washington Redskins -2 wins by 3, covers (ESPN box score).
“The Ravens, minus two. Great defense. Serviceable offense. At home. Hyped up crowd. Feeling like they are world beaters right now. And I know that's not necessarily a great scenario. But I think this defense is historically good. Yeah, they really are. That's why I said it's where the rubber hits the road here with the best defense. I think the Saints are ranked three on their offense, third in the NFL. So really kind of, to me, the most interesting game on the board. I have four games I'm starting to get really excited about. Five, six. We're going to get to the next two. I'm on Baltimore here, Scooch. I'm going against the Wise Guys.”
NO 24, BAL 23 — Saints beat Ravens 24-23; Baltimore Ravens -2 loses outright by 1, busts (ESPN box score).
“rams what are they at i see nine and a half on the road third week in a row at the niners on a short week after a crushing loss last night that might have been the game That might have been the game for C Beathard I might be getting the best of the number at 9.5 in some places on the Rams. You know I don't want to bet against a home dog at practically double digits, but I think last night's was a crushing loss, and I don't think that the Niners defense plays that well again. yeah that it's really hard to to rebound so quickly after a game that you felt like was yours and and you lost i mean emotionally it's hard to get back up um had it been any any other week other than coming off of that you know crushing loss i'd say you automatically have to take the 10 points and i still think you autoplay you just have to take the yeah you have to take the 10 points but but i agree with you but on the other side we've also said that you know you had to bet seattle at home getting seven points against the rams a couple weeks ago you had to take the broncos against the rams getting seven points last week and so third third week in a row the rams are on the road laying real big numbers they haven't covered once yet and on the road laying those big numbers and this is the biggest number yet so um the professionals will be on on the 49ers you'll see this line come down uh just you know just like you saw the line come down last night the packers were uh were as high as 10 and some places it went down to eight and a half so the sharp guys are a late move on the on the dog the late move is the correct move yes it is i'm gonna I bet the Niners. I changed my mind just while you were talking.”
LAR 39, SF 10 — Rams beat 49ers 39-10; San Francisco 49ers +9.5 loses by 29, busts (ESPN box score).
“Chicago Bears plus three against the New England Patriots.”
NE 38, CHI 31 — Patriots beat Bears 38-31; Chicago Bears +3 loses by 7, busts (ESPN box score).
“10 points alright do it let's do it let's do it drop the hammer let's do it San Francisco 49ers plus dead against the Los Angeles Rams. And after they play tonight, you might get like an 11 or 12 somewhere. Yeah. I mean, that's the thing. I mean, it's crazy not to bet a 10-point home underdog, but it's crazy to bet this 10-point home underdog against this team.”
LAR 39, SF 10 — Rams beat 49ers 39-10; San Francisco 49ers +10 loses by 29, busts (ESPN box score).
“We have the New York Jets plus three at home against the Minnesota Vikings. We have the Cincinnati Bearcats plus three and a half. At the Temple Owls, we have the Arizona Cardinals plus one and a half at home against the Denver Broncos. We have the Kansas City Chiefs Cincinnati Bank. Over 58 and a half. We have the Washington Redskins. I love this pick. Minus one and a half against the Dallas Cowboys. We have Chicago Bears. Oh, yeah, baby. Chicago Bears. Buy and low. Plus three against the New England Patriots. We have Michigan State. Also buy and low. Plus seven against the Michigan Wolverines. Philadelphia. No, then we went with Baltimore Ravens. Minus two and a half. Over the Saints. that we have. Here we go. I know you do. I know you do. Then, to wrap it up, San Francisco 49ers plus 10 versus the Los Angeles Rams.”
9-team parlay: Jets +3 lost (Vikings 37-17), Cincinnati +3.5 lost (Temple 24-17 OT), Cardinals +1.5 lost (Broncos 45-10), Chiefs/Bengals Over 58.5 lost (KC 45-10, total 55), Redskins -1.5 won (WSH 20-17), Bears +3 lost (NE 38-31), Michigan State +7 lost (Michigan 21-7), Ravens -2.5 lost (Saints 24-23), 49ers +10 lost (Rams 39-10); one leg wins, parlay busts (ESPN box scores).
“We are at Arizona plus 10 against Minnesota.”
MIN 27, ARI 17 — Vikings beat Cardinals 27-17; Arizona Cardinals +10 loses by exactly 10, pushes (ESPN box score).
“i love denver i do too i bet i bet denver at seven”
LAR 23, DEN 20 — Rams beat Broncos 23-20; Denver Broncos +7 loses by only 3, covers (ESPN box score).
“You know what that means You know what that means Dropping the mic That your mic drop moment Boom That your mic drop moment I had to have one Take us to the next game Kansas City at New England Patriots by three and a half New England. I'm going to do what you love. I'm going to do what you love. I am going to take the New England Patriots, the home favorite, with a disadvantage line, because I think they're going to kill the Chiefs in this game.”
NE 43, KC 40 — Patriots beat Chiefs 43-40; New England Patriots -3.5 wins by only 3, does not cover, busts (ESPN box score).
“this is a game i bet because i want to get the best of the [11:41] number cincinnati minus two and a half against pittsburgh in cincinnati i bet the bangles a two [11:48] and a half.”
PIT 28, CIN 21 — Steelers beat Bengals 28-21; Cincinnati margin -7 vs -2.5 line busts (ESPN box score).
“Here's a game I did bet. [14:40] You ready? [14:41] Yep. [14:42] And I bet it New England minus three. [14:46] before it moved to three and a half.”
NE 43, KC 40 — Patriots beat Chiefs 43-40, winning by exactly 3; New England margin +3 vs -3 line pushes (ESPN box score).
“coming in on the Chargers here we're at minus one now it's kind of the line that can go to two two and a half without a whole lot of money on it so we're probably going to move this pretty aggressively. And I agree with you. If you had to put a gun to my head, pick a side. I going with the Chargers in this one I so tempted to play it right now so I can get the best of the number”
CLE 14, LAC 38 — Chargers beat Browns 38-14; Los Angeles margin +24 vs -1 line covers (ESPN box score).
“Washington minus one over Carolina. Oh, boy. Oh, boy. Yeah. Oh, boy. Oh, gosh. Scooch. Scooch. Scooch. Scooch. Yeah. I might have to take the Redskins you have to you have to I mean they're not even laying a field goal at home they're laying one coming off the loss but they're at home the Panthers just struggled against the Giants now the Panthers are on the road you just have to lay the Redskins if you have any principles whatsoever you've got to just lay the one not look back. Yeah, but here's the thing. I have principles and I just bet against them because I bet the Chargers. I'm allegedly making a bet. Yeah, you did the opposite. Just so everybody in the room knows. Your attention, please. Chad is making a bet. Allegedly. Oh, my God. Yeah, love it. I got to. Yeah. You know? So the public is going to be all over the Panthers in this one. Probably at about five to one clip or ratio. And I haven't seen any sharp money on this one yet. I don't think they know what to do with this one yet either. Really? No, not a whole lot of movement. Well, I just bet it.”
WSH 23, CAR 17 — Washington beat Carolina 23-17; Washington margin +6 vs -1 line covers (ESPN box score).
“What if allegedly I would have bet the Denver Broncos at plus seven against the Los Angeles Rams?”
DEN 20, LAR 23 — Rams beat Broncos 23-20; Denver margin -3 vs +7 line covers (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Washington Redskins minus two at home against the Carolina Panthers.”
WSH 23, CAR 17 — Washington beat Carolina 23-17; Washington margin +6 vs -2 line covers (ESPN box score).
“Denver at New York. Jets by one. So everything I said about principles. Broncos. Yeah, I can't bet the Jets. Broncos. There it is. All right. I jumped on this bad boy, and I think, two when it opened. The fact that the New York Jets are favored against the Broncos that did what they did against Kansas City is fucking ridiculous My brain is in a pretzel right now How are the Jets still riding high on that Lions game”
NYJ 34, DEN 16 — Jets beat Broncos 34-16; Denver margin -18 vs +2 line busts (ESPN box score).
“Los Angeles Rams at Seattle. Rams by seven. Seahawks. No brainer. Here we go.”
SEA 31, LAR 33 — Rams beat Seahawks 33-31; Seattle margin -2 vs +7 line covers (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Bills plus three and a half.”
BUF 13, TEN 12 — Bills beat Titans 13-12 on a walk-off field goal; Buffalo margin +1 vs +3.5 line covers (ESPN box score).
“The Rams and the Seahawks. The Rams opened at 7.5. Full disclosure, I bet it at 7.5. I might have accidentally bet it twice. What did you take? You took the plus 7.5? I took the plus 7.5.”
SEA 31, LAR 33 — Rams beat Seahawks 33-31; Seattle margin -2 vs +7.5 line covers (ESPN box score).
“I am going to go with the Washington Redskins as seven-point underdogs next week.”
43-19 — Saints beat the Redskins 43-19 (ESPN); the 24-point loss busts the +7 spread.
“I would like to choose the Atlanta Falcons as four-point underdogs.”
41-17 — Steelers beat the Falcons 41-17 (ESPN); the 24-point loss busts the +4 spread.
“Seattle plus seven and a half at home against the Los Angeles Rams.”
33-31 — Rams beat the Seahawks 33-31 (ESPN); Seattle's 2-point loss covers the +7.5 spread.
“We got the Denver Broncos plus five [37:18] against the Kansas City Chiefs.”
27-23 — Chiefs beat the Broncos 27-23 (ESPN); Denver's 4-point loss covers the +5 spread.
“We got the [37:21] New York Giants plus [37:23] three and a half against the New Orleans [37:25] Saints.”
33-18 — Saints beat the Giants 33-18 (ESPN); New York's 15-point loss busts the +3.5 spread.
“We have the [37:27] Indianapolis Colts, minus [37:29] one against the Houston Texans.”
37-34 — Texans beat the Colts 37-34 in overtime (ESPN); Indianapolis lost outright, busting the -1 spread.
“We have the [37:33] New England Patriots, minus six and a half [37:35] against the Miami Dolphins,”
38-7 — Patriots routed the Dolphins 38-7 (ESPN); the 31-point win covers -6.5.
“and we have [37:37] the Cincinnati Bengals, plus five.”
37-36 — Bengals beat the Falcons 37-36 on a late touchdown (ESPN); Cincinnati's outright win covers +5.
“I saw this game when I saw it on Sunday night I saw the Colts as two favorites [15:08] And I will say that I bet it immediately.”
37-34 — Texans beat the Colts 37-34 in overtime (ESPN box score); Indianapolis lost outright, busting the -2 spread.
“But I am definitely going to bet the Raiders this week. [38:13] In fact, I actually just bet them at minus 2.5, minus 105.”
45-42 — Raiders beat the Browns 45-42 in overtime (ESPN); the 3-point margin covers -2.5.
“I just bet the Broncos at plus five and a half, minus 105. [47:45] I did it while you were talking.”
27-23 — Chiefs beat the Broncos 27-23 (ESPN); Denver's 4-point loss covers the +5.5 spread.
“Well, you have to bet the Cardinals because all the money is going to be on the road favorite. Like, if I'm going to believe in my philosophy, I have to do that with the Cardinals. I got to do it with the Giants. I got to do it with the Broncos. Like, there's a whole host of games that I got to do it with. I'm going to have to do it with Tennessee. You know, I got to. I got to. Gooch? You got to. I got to be who I am. Yeah, yeah. You know what I'm saying? So for no other reason, like, I'm not even looking at the teams. I'm just looking at the number. I see the home team is a three-point dog, and I see all the money coming in on the road favorite. Like, I'm going with the Cardinals.”
20-17 — Seahawks beat the Cardinals 20-17 on a last-play field goal (ESPN); Arizona's exact 3-point loss pushes against +3.
“Here is our nine-team parlay. BYU, plus 16.5 at Washington. Hawaii, minus 14 at San Jose State. Indianapolis Colts, minus 2.5 at home against Houston. The Denver Broncos, plus 4 against the Kansas City Chiefs. East Carolina, minus 5.5 against Old Dominion. Oakland, minus 3 versus the Cleveland Browns. Detroit, plus 3.5 against Dallas. We have the Vikings plus six and a half on Thursday night against the Los Angeles Rams. The Arizona Cardinals plus three at home against the Seattle Seahawks. I like it. That's going to be $60. It's going to pay $20,000.”
9-leg parlay busts: BYU +16.5 lost (Washington 35, BYU 7); Hawaii -14 lost (Hawaii 44, San Jose St 41, 5OT); Colts -2.5 lost (Texans 37, Colts 34 OT); Broncos +4 pushed (Chiefs 27, Broncos 23); East Carolina -5.5 lost (ECU 37, ODU 35); Raiders -3 pushed (Raiders 45, Browns 42 OT); Lions +3.5 won (Cowboys 26, Lions 24); Vikings +6.5 lost (Rams 38, Vikings 31); Cardinals +3 pushed (Seahawks 20, Cardinals 17); a parlay needs every leg to win, so it busts (ESPN box scores).
“but my first pick is going to be Indy [18:18] as a two and a half point home favorite [18:22] against the Houston Texans.”
37-34 — Texans beat the Colts 37-34 in overtime (ESPN box score); Indianapolis lost outright, busting the -2.5 spread.
“Chad Millie Monster picks the Oakland Raiders as three-point favorites at home against Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns.”
45-42 — Raiders beat the Browns 45-42 in overtime (ESPN); the exact 3-point margin pushes against -3.
“I am 100% in on the Cardinals. [45:46] All right. [45:47] I'll change it. [45:48] I'll do Arizona plus three.”
20-17 — Seahawks beat the Cardinals 20-17 on a last-play field goal (ESPN); Arizona's exact 3-point loss pushes against +3.
“i can say i like the colts here i like it a lot better at seven but the super contest doesn give us that option so i still like him at six and a half i actually think the colts have a chance to win this game outright”
16-20 — Eagles beat Colts 20-16; Indianapolis +6.5 loses by only 4, covers (ESPN box score).
“Bengals at Panthers. Panthers by three. Blackjack, which jungle cat do you prefer? Bengals or Panthers? Ooh. Which jungle cat? I think I like the Panthers but This is another game I have a tough time on know the bengals have outperformed expectations for me this year everything you saying is wrong go ahead say it the bengals haven't outperformed my expectations say what you're gonna say it's say what you're gonna say it's say it i thought they were gonna stink say it eileen carolina you're wrong i mean i admit i could be i don't love this game i love this game i love this game so you know what how much do you love it. I love it. I'll give it to you right now. You were right on the Bengals in week one. You want it, you got it. I got it. Yes. It's a yes. It's a yes. Do you want to know why? I do. I do. But I just want you to know that's how much I trust you on the Bengals. You nailed him in week one. I'll give him to you in week three. We can't be doing any worse. You're right. And the Bengals are one of the two wins we've got. So I'm going to give it to you. Here's why. The Bengals defense is phenomenal. That's like a four-syllable word, okay? Phenomenal. They are seventh in the league in yards per play on defense. They are second in the league in yards per play allowed rushing the ball. Okay? How are the Panthers going to beat this team? The only thing they can do is run the ball. They can dump it off to McCaffrey. They seem to like doing that. That's basically a run. Yeah, more or less. You throw that screen into the middle of the defensive line for the Bengals, they're going to stop it. They've got a great secondary. They're just a good team. They're a good team no one's paying attention to. That's where the value is. Give me the Cincinnati Bengals.”
21-31 — Panthers beat Bengals 31-21; Bengals +3 loses by 10, busts (ESPN box score).
“The Indianapolis Colts, I liked this game. I don't like it anymore. This game opened at 6.5. Now it's at 6. Where are you at? We're at 6 on the game. We bounced back and forth a couple times, 6, 6.5. Still waiting. You know, Jay Ajay is doubtful for the Eagles, but we're waiting to see if Wentz is going to be the starter in this one. He been upgraded to probable and it not going to make a huge difference in the line but public perception may sway So if he in we go back to 6 and maybe even 7 even money But again, here, we probably have the Colts ranked a little higher than the general public thinks. That first game against the Bengals, now that we both admit that the Bengals really are a good team, That loss against the Bengals doesn't look like a bad loss for Indianapolis. I think they can keep this game close. Philadelphia showed that they could be very vulnerable. So I think that's a lot of points in this one. I do too. I love the Colts in this game. I love the Colts even if Carson Wentz is playing.”
16-20 — Eagles beat Colts 20-16; Indianapolis +6 loses by only 4, covers (ESPN box score).
“But I like Mississippi State in this spot as a 10-point favorite over Kentucky on the road.”
7-28 — Kentucky upset Mississippi State 28-7; Mississippi State -10 loses outright as favorite, busts (ESPN box score).
“I am going to go with the Cleveland Browns. Oh, my God. Minus three and a half over the New York Jets.”
17-21 — Browns beat Jets 21-17 on Thursday Night Football; Cleveland -3.5 wins by 4, covers (ESPN box score).
“Let's recap where we're at. Are you ready? Are you boys ready? Yes. Are you boys ready to roll? Here we go. Cincinnati Bengals, plus three at Carolina. The Minnesota Vikings, Jesus Christ. The Minnesota Vikings, minus 16.5 over Buffalo. Mississippi State, minus 10 on the road at Kentucky. The Miami Dolphins, minus three and a half against the Oakland Raiders. Washington State I love this pick plus four and a half against the way overrated USC Trojans The Indianapolis Colts plus seven versus the Philadelphia Eagles Oh, Jesus. The over 54.5 between the Chiefs and the Niners. The Titans, plus six and a half against the Jags. And the Browns, minus three and a half against the Jets.”
9-team parlay busts: Bengals +3 (Panthers won 31-21) and Minnesota -16.5 (Bills won 27-6 outright) and Mississippi State -10 (Kentucky won 28-7) all lost; Miami -3.5 (28-20), Washington State +4.5 (lost 39-36), Colts +7 (lost 20-16), Over 54.5 (38-27), Titans +6.5 (won 9-6), Browns -3.5 (won 21-17) all won — but a parlay needs every leg, so it busts (ESPN box scores).
“Cardinals at Rams. Rams by 12 and a half. I like this one. I love this one. Me too. I so love this one. This to me... Now I'm nervous. This to me is like the greatest example in the history of examples of overreaction, of week two overreaction. This game should be like in the Action Network, on the Action Network right now, you can go to our latest NFL Power Ratings. And we have a story that is about the overreactions to week one. this game should be is power rated rams by nine yeah right now it's rams by 12 and a half yeah it's crazy that is and that's super contest that's super in reality it's up to like 13 13 and a half it's it is ridiculous it is so ridiculous let's get the real line right now right now who is laying two touchdowns on an nfl game who's it's stupid it's stupid oh my god right now right now this line in real life is Rams minus 14. 14? Are you kidding me? I bet it on the damn train on the way in and it was 13 and a half. I bet it yesterday and it was 13. It's crazy. I mean, come on. Of course we're taking the Cardinals in this game.”
0-34 — Rams beat Cardinals 34-0; Cardinals +12.5 loses by 34, busts (ESPN box score).
“Giants at Dallas. Cowboys by a field goal. Giants, wrap the show. Let's go. We're done. That is such a yes for me.”
13-20 — Cowboys beat Giants 20-13; Giants +3 loses by 7, busts (ESPN box score).
“I have already bet the Jaguars at plus two.”
JAX 31, NE 20 — Jaguars beat Patriots 31-20 outright; Jaguars margin +11 covers +2 (ESPN box score).
“i have bet already the arizona cardinals as 13 point underdogs in this game”
LAR 34, ARI 0 — Rams shut out Cardinals 34-0; Cardinals lost by 34, failing to cover +13 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going with BYU plus 23.”
BYU 24, WIS 21 — BYU upset Wisconsin 24-21 outright, well within the +23 spread (ESPN box score).
“There's no way I'm taking the Pittsburgh Steelers in this game. [26:52] I'm going with the Kansas City Chiefs plus five.”
KC 42, PIT 37 — Chiefs beat Steelers 42-37 outright, comfortably covering +5 (ESPN game page).
“Our 19 parlay. Our 19 parlay, $20 in, $19,000 out, something crazy odds. Giants plus three versus the Dallas Cowboys. Missouri minus seven. BYU plus 23 versus Wisconsin. The Philadelphia Eagles, minus three over Tampa Bay. New Mexico, minus six over New Mexico State. Kansas City, plus five versus the Pittsburgh Steelers. Arizona State, where Paul LaDuca's number is retired, minus three and a half against San Diego State. Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo Bills, under 44 and a half. the Jacksonville Jaguars plus one and a half versus the New England Patriots. That is nine-teamer.”
Nine-team parlay busts: Giants +3 lost (Cowboys 20-13 Giants); Missouri -7 lost (Missouri 40-37 Purdue); BYU +23 won (BYU 24-21 Wisconsin); Eagles -3 lost (Buccaneers 27-21 Eagles); New Mexico -6 won (New Mexico 42-25 New Mexico State); Chiefs +5 won (Chiefs 42-37 Steelers); Arizona State -3.5 lost (San Diego State 28-21 Arizona State); Under 44.5 lost (Chargers 31-20 Bills, 51 combined); Jaguars +1.5 won (Jaguars 31-20 Patriots) — since not every leg won, the parlay loses.
“New York Giants, plus three against the Jacksonville Jaguars.”
JAX 20, NYG 15 — Jaguars beat Giants 20-15; Giants lost by 5, failing to cover +3 (ESPN box score).
“Cincinnati Bengals, plus, I can't believe we are putting $1 million on the Cincinnati Bengals. You can't believe it! Plus three. You just sold me on it! Plus three against the Indianapolis Colts.”
IND 23, CIN 34 — Bengals beat Colts 34-23; Bengals margin +11 covers +3 (ESPN box score).
“We are betting a million dollars on the Tennessee Titans minus one and a half over the Miami Dolphins.”
MIA 27, TEN 20 — Dolphins beat Titans 27-20; Titans lost by 7, failing to cover -1.5 (ESPN box score).
“We are betting a million dollars on the Denver Broncos minus three over the Seattle Seahawks.”
DEN 27, SEA 24 — Broncos beat Seahawks 27-24; Broncos margin +3 exactly matches -3, pushing (ESPN box score).
“We have a maybe on the Steelers as three-and-a-half-point favorites over the Browns. I could buy into the Steelers. Thank God. All right. Thank God. It's taken me three weeks to get them here. Let's add the Steelers.”
CLE 21, PIT 21 — Steelers and Browns tied 21-21; Steelers' margin of 0 fails to cover -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“We are betting a million dollars on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus three and a half against the Cleveland Browns.”
CLE 21, PIT 21 — Steelers and Browns tied 21-21; Steelers' margin of 0 fails to cover -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“You want to take the Houston Texans here getting six and a half points. That's what you want to do. You serious? Not only do I want to do it, I have gone into the Action Network app and made that pick.”
NE 27, HOU 20 — Patriots beat Texans 27-20; Texans lost by 7, failing to cover +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“I loved it at 7 I played it at 7 but I don't like 7.5”
BAL 47, BUF 3 — Ravens routed Bills 47-3; Ravens margin +44 easily covers -7 (ESPN box score).
“Dallas at Carolina. Jeff Schwartz has also pointed out that the under is a good play here. It opened at 44. It's now down to 42. I played it at 44 just so people can know that.”
CAR 16, DAL 8 — Panthers beat Cowboys 16-8; combined 24 points is under 44 (ESPN box score).
“which isn't a bad thing i mean uh yeah i took the falcons i took the falcons at three and a half”
PHI 18, ATL 12 — Eagles beat Falcons 18-12; Falcons lost by 6, failing to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I feel like I have now bet the Ravens. I bet them at minus 7.”
BAL 47, BUF 3 — Ravens routed Bills 47-3; Ravens margin +44 easily covers -7 (ESPN box score).
“I love the Saints You know I bought like a Saints to win the Super Bowl ticket at 18 I think they the best team in the conference I have full faith in them”
The Rams beat the Saints 26-23 in overtime in the NFC Championship, and the Patriots beat the Rams 13-3 in Super Bowl LIII, so the Saints (18-1) future to win the Super Bowl loses.
“um i got the under at 44 by the way and uh like a lot of a lot of narratives happening here”
CAR 16, DAL 8 — Panthers beat Cowboys 16-8; combined 24 points is under 44 (ESPN box score).
“the one game [45:57] where I still have a lot of confidence [45:59] no matter what the number is [46:00] Houston Texans plus 6.5”
NE 27, HOU 20 — Patriots beat Texans 27-20; Texans lost by 7, failing to cover +6.5 (ESPN box score).