Tarris Reed Jr. over 15.5 points · Hard Rock Bet* closed +14.5 · CLV -1
“I think he's going to get,
and UConn will be able to procure some paint touches.
If UConn has any confidence with their shooters
and they're nailing a few shots early,
that's going to require Illinois to expand their defense and Reed's going to cook in the post. So
I like over 15 and a half points for Terrace Reed.”
UConn 71, Illinois 62 — Tarris Reed Jr. scored 17 points for UConn in the 71-62 Final Four win over Illinois, clearing the over 15.5 (ESPN box score). (Tarris Reed Jr.: 17 points, 11 rebounds)
Purdue -6.5 · Hard Rock Bet* closed -7.5 · CLV +1
“I mean, I really like Purdue laying the six and a half.”
Purdue 79, Texas 77 — Purdue edged Texas 79-77 in the Sweet 16; Purdue's 2-point margin falls well short of covering -6.5 (ESPN box score).
Under 142.5 · Hard Rock Bet
“my best bet here is under 142.5 between St. John's and Duke.”
Duke 80, St. John's 75 — Duke beat St. John's 80-75 in the Sweet 16; combined 155 points busts the under 142.5 (ESPN box score).
Over 2.5 (3 or more seed-line upsets in the Sweet 16) · Hard Rock Bet*
“So I do have an exotic here. You can find in the markets three plus upsets based on the seed
line in the Sweet 16. There's eight total games, three or more. So essentially over under two and a
half, three or more upsets on the seed line to happen in the Sweet 16. And that's a plus money
bet. You can find that about plus 113 or plus 117 if you shop around. So I do think that that will
happen.”
The 2026 Sweet 16 had exactly 3 seed-line upsets, clearing the over 2.5 (ESPN box scores). (Sweet 16 seed upsets: No.3 Illinois over No.2 Houston (65-55), No.9 Iowa over No.4 Nebraska (77-71), No.6 Tennessee over No.2 Iowa State (76-62) = 3 upsets, over the 2.5 line.)
SMU -6.5 · Hard Rock Bet closed -7.5 · CLV +1
“well the one I like here Hard Rock actually has the best price out there So if you like this play go to Hard Rock and bet it SMU minus six and a half is what I like here in the first four”
SMU 79, Miami (OH) 89 — Miami (OH) beat SMU 89-79 in the First Four on March 18, 2026; SMU lost outright by 10, well short of covering -6.5 (ESPN box score).
Wisconsin team total Over 87.5
“yeah I've got three games that I want to talk about so I like Wisconsin's team total over 87
and a half the big south is on an 0-5 against the spread run in the NCAA tournament high point”
High Point 83, Wisconsin 82 — High Point upset Wisconsin 83-82; Wisconsin's team total of 82 fell short of the 87.5 over (ESPN box score).
Under 136.5 · Hard Rock Bet* closed +136.5 · CLV 0
“So I like the under at 136.5. I've got this one about 78 to 52 type of game.”
Duke 71, Siena 65 — Duke beat Siena 71-65 in the first round; combined 136 points, under the 136.5 total (ESPN box score).
Under 136.5 · Hard Rock Bet* closed +138 · CLV -1.5
“We're going to go Idaho Houston under 136 and a half. Kelvin Sampson is a great under coach”
Houston 78, Idaho 47 — Houston routed Idaho 78-47 in the first round; combined 125 points, under the 136.5 total (ESPN box score).
Under 152 · Hard Rock Bet*
“So Long Island and Arizona, this is a dead nut under 152.”
Arizona 92, LIU 58 — Arizona routed Long Island 92-58 in the first round; combined 150 points, under the 152 total (ESPN box score).
Wright State team total Under 63.5
“So I taking their team total under 63 and a half”
Virginia 82, Wright State 73 — Virginia beat Wright State 82-73; Wright State's team total of 73 exceeded the 63.5 under (ESPN box score).
Under 138 closed +141.5 · CLV -3.5
“I also think it's an under game, 138.”
Kansas 68, Cal Baptist 60 — Kansas beat Cal Baptist 68-60 in the first round; combined 128 points, under the 138 total (ESPN box score).
Sum of Final Four seeds Under 9.5
“In fact, I have an exotic bet that I really like here.
If you look at the total sum of the seeds to make the final four, you can find a book out there that has over under nine and a half.
And I think if you look at the under, that's probably a way to go.”
The 2026 Final Four was No.1 Michigan, No.1 Arizona, No.2 UConn, and No.3 Illinois; seed sum = 7, under the 9.5 line (ESPN scoreboard). (Final Four seeds: Michigan 1, Arizona 1, UConn 2, Illinois 3 = sum of 7 (under 9.5).)
WCC total tournament wins Over 3.5
“exotic out there. Total number of wins accumulated by participants from the WCC. So you got the Zags
in there, St. Mary's and Santa Clara. That total is three and a half. I think the Zags alone are
capable of winning at least three games in this tournament and Santa Clara and St. Mary's will
both have opportunities to accumulate at least one win so when you look at the totality of that
I think it's more likely than not you're going to get over three and a half wins from WCC
participants in this tournament.”
WCC tournament teams combined for just 1 win in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, well under the 3.5 needed (ESPN box scores/schedules). (Gonzaga 1 win (beat Kennesaw State 73-64, lost to Texas 74-68 in Round 2); Saint Mary's 0 wins (lost to Texas A&M 63-50 in Round 1); Santa Clara 0 wins (lost to Kentucky 89-84 in OT, Round 1). Total = 1 win.)
Indiana Hoosiers -8.5 · Hard Rock Bet* closed -7.5 · CLV -1
“I laid the eight and a half with Indiana.”
27-21 — Indiana beat Miami 27-21 to win the CFP National Championship; Indiana's 6-point margin fell short of covering -8.5 (ESPN box score).