Sean Zerillo

“But yeah, give me the inside distance here.”

Shara Magomedov defeated Michel Pereira by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) — fight went the full distance.

“him down to about plus 130 currently sitting at plus 195 also lean to the ghost the decision here”

Nursulton Ruziboev defeated Andrey Pulyaev via 1st-round submission at UFC Fight Night Baku. (Ruziboev def. Pulyaev, sub (RNC) R1 3:58)

“So I would take Reyes up to about minus 220, minus 225.”

Kaan Ofli defeated Javier Reyes via 1st-round submission at UFC Fight Night Baku. (Ofli def. Reyes, sub (arm-triangle) R1 4:16)

“But the one bet that did pop up as potential value for me, Kudalaba by submission at 11-1.”

Ion Cutelaba (Kudalaba) lost to Navajo Stirling via TKO at 3:23 of Round 2 at UFC Vegas 119 — no submission win.

“feely at plus 250 i like that down probably about plus 150”

Vinicius Oliveira defeated Andre Fili via 2nd-round TKO at UFC Vegas 119. (Oliveira def. Fili, TKO R2 4:56)

“So Hossa here, I make closer to minus 200,”

Luana Santos defeated Karol Rosa via unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 119. (Santos def. Rosa, UD (30-27 x3))

“I show value on his knockout prop at about”

Murtazali Magomedov defeated Melsik Baghdasaryan via first-round submission (twister) at 1:17 — not a knockout.

“So Teporia to win in round one or two is minus 145. I think that's a nice little angle you could take in that price range.”

Topuria lost to Gaethje via TKO in round 4; he did not win in round 1 or 2. (Gaethje def. Topuria TKO R4)

• Topuria ML
• Under 1.5 rounds

“So Toporia and the under one and a half rounds instead of the round one, round two, you can actually get plus money. So I'll plus 110 on Toporia and under one and a half”

Justin Gaethje upset Ilia Topuria via 4th-round corner-stoppage TKO at UFC Freedom 250 (White House) — both parlay legs lost (Topuria lost outright, and the fight went past 1.5 rounds). (Gaethje def. Topuria, TKO (corner stoppage) end of R4)

“Again, I make him a favorite. He's listed about plus 135.”

Diego Lopes defeated Steve Garcia at UFC Freedom 250. (Lopes def. Garcia)

“I make Shabazian a slight favorite, and again, he's about plus 175. [13:12] Would absolutely want his money on pre-fight. [13:14] He's arguably my favorite bet on the card.”

Brendan Allen defeated Edmen Shahbazyan by unanimous decision in the UFC Vegas 118 co-main event. (Allen def. Shahbazyan, unanimous decision)

“I also like [8:26] him by KO as well at about plus 350”

Brendan Allen beat Edmen Shahbazyan by unanimous decision; no KO/TKO for Shabazian.

“Priscilla Cachoeira at about plus 105 going up against Chelsea Chandler. [13:37] Another consensus agreement here for Billy and I”

Chelsea Chandler submitted Priscila Cachoeira via armbar in Round 1 (3:42) at UFC Vegas 118. (Chandler def. Cachoeira, submission (armbar) R1 3:42)

“I like Brito to knock him out at about three to one.”

Joanderson Brito beat Jordan Leavitt by submission (guillotine) R1, not by KO/TKO.

“You like Chavez to finish the fight at plus 115.”

Jeisla Chaves beat Duben by split decision (a points win, not a finish).

“I like this fight to go to a decision at minus 110. I make it closer to minus [33:56] 130.”

Edgar Chairez submitted Bruno Silva (RNC) at 4:13 of R1; fight did not reach a decision.

“Give me the number three Chief Wallaby. [28:13] My derby pick as the 2026 Belmont Stakes winner.”

Golden Tempo won the 158th Belmont Stakes; Chief Wallaby finished 4th.

“I like the number six crude velocity who is the morning line favorite at nine to five but i make this horse closer to even money”

Crude Velocity (4-5 fav) finished 2nd in the Woody Stephens; Englishman won by 5 3/4 lengths. (Englishman won; Crude Velocity 2nd)

“Number three, [38:52] make me king, my top or my second choice, but also my top value bet in this race. I make him [38:58] about five to one. He's eight to one on the morning lines.”

Deterministic won the Manhattan Stakes (repeat); Make Me King did not win. (Deterministic won, Test Score 2nd)

“This fight is plus 106 to go to a decision. [4:16] And that is the bet that I like for this fight.”

Song Yadong submitted Deiveson Figueiredo via guillotine at 4:42 of Round 2, so the fight did not go to a decision.

“I like Matthews to win this fight by KO at about plus 260 was the best available number I saw.”

Jake Matthews beat Carlston Harris by unanimous decision, not by KO/TKO.

“I can also recommend taking her decision prop as well. [26:17] I make that closer to minus 140. [26:19] You can bet that at around minus 110.”

Xiong (Zhang) Jingnan lost to Angela Hill by unanimous decision (30-27 x3), so the Zhang decision prop did not cash.

“Diaz by submission is around plus 220. [30:21] I make that closer to plus 200.”

Luis Felipe Diaz beat Yi Sok Lee by TKO (punches), not by submission.

“Both of us like her as underdogs this weekend.”

Polyana Viana lost to Alice Ardelean via 2nd-round submission (capsule lock) at UFC Vegas 117. (Ardelean def. Viana, submission (capsule lock), Round 2, 4:36)

“I like the over two and a half rounds at about plus 120.”

Juan Diaz submitted Malcolm Wellmaker at 4:08 of Round 2 (elapsed ~1.8 rounds), finishing before the 2.5-round total. (Diaz def. Wellmaker, submission (RNC), Round 2, 4:08)

“there is value on Timmy Quamba to win by decision at about plus 260.”

Bernardo Sopaj submitted Timmy Cuamba (rear-naked choke) in round 2, so Cuamba did not win by decision.

“The number 12 incredible though is my top selection. [37:07] I make him about seven to two in terms of his fair odds.”

Napoleon Solo won the 2026 (151st) Preakness Stakes at Laurel Park; #12 Incredible did not win.

• Hamzat Chimaev ML
• Under 1.5 rounds

“I believe Hamzat and under one and a half is around plus 200 on a same game parlay. I would prefer that to his money line because that's how I think he covers his price tag.”

Sean Strickland upset Khamzat Chimaev by split decision (48-47, 48-47, 47-48) at UFC 328 on May 9, 2026, so the Chimaev ML leg of the SGP fails.

“I like Rombechke and Rombechke by KO.”

Mateusz Rebecki lost to Grant Dawson by 3rd-round rear-naked-choke submission at UFC 328; no KO win.

“So give me a swinging match between Jeremy Stevens and King Green I make Stevens about plus 250 I would happily take plus 300 or higher”

King Green (Bobby Green) submitted Jeremy Stephens via rear-naked choke at 4:20 of Round 1 at UFC 328.

“This is a fight I also like to end inside the distance. In addition to Gordon by KO at about plus 290.”

Jared Gordon lost to Jim Miller by 1st-round guillotine submission at UFC 328; Gordon did not win by KO.

“Volkov over half a takedown is about minus 115. So I'm going to be playing that.”

Volkov won a striking-only unanimous decision over Cortes-Acosta at UFC 328 with no takedowns recorded, so over 0.5 takedowns lost.

“I like both plus sides that I just enumerated. Jack Della Maddalena plus money on the money line.”

Carlos Prates defeated Jack Della Maddalena by TKO at 3:17 of round 3 at UFC Fight Night Perth. (Prates wins by TKO, round 3 at 3:17)

“And then also the fight to go to a decision were to go longer, be over three and a half rounds, over four and a half rounds. But the goes to decision I make about plus 150, you can get as high as plus 180.”

The fight did not reach a decision; Carlos Prates beat Della Maddalena by TKO at 3:17 of Round 3.

“I'm taking Berchek here, at least pre-fight. I make him a small favorite, and he's listed around plus 150, as I said.”

Cam Rowston defeated Robert Bryczek by unanimous decision (30-27 x3) at UFC Fight Night Perth. (Rowston wins by unanimous decision)

“My top selection is going to be the number 12 Chief Wallaby at about eight to one on the morning line.”

Chief Wallaby finished 4th in the 2026 Kentucky Derby; Golden Tempo (23-1) won.

“That is my top model selection in that race. I make Whiskey Decision two to one, and you can get four to one on the morning line.”

Whiskey Decision did not win its Oaks-weekend race (Kathynmarissa won going away).

“150 on the fight to end by KO or submission to end inside the distance. That's where my money's”

Rafa Garcia defeated Alexander Hernandez by unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 116 — the fight went the full distance with no finish, so the KO/submission-inside-the-distance pick lost. (Decision after 3 rounds, judges 29-28, 29-28, 30-27)

“This fight is about minus 130 to end inside the distance.”

Eric McConico defeated Rodolfo Vieira by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC Vegas 116 — the fight went the full distance with no finish, so the inside-the-distance pick lost. (Decision after 3 rounds, judges 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

“Show more value on the Meconico KO side of things but I do show value on both of those props”

Eric McConico won by unanimous decision over Rodolfo Vieira, not by KO.

“So Alencar by submission at 11-1.”

Talita Alencar beat Julia Polastri by unanimous decision, not by submission.

“So Francis Marshall to get the knockout at about plus 420.”

Francis Marshall beat Lucas Brennan by unanimous decision (30-27 x3), not by KO.

“So the round one prop Billy's on, I'm on Bouchesha small at about minus 140, and I'd be looking to add live.”

Ryan Spann defeated Marcus Buchecha via 2nd-round knockout at UFC Vegas 116. (Spann wins by KO, round 2 at 2:10)

“I would take him up to about minus 190.”

Raoni Barcelos defeated Montel Jackson by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) at UFC Vegas 116. (Barcelos wins by split decision)

“but I also like his KO prop as well at about 3-1.”

Victor Valenzuela beat Max Griffin by unanimous decision, not by KO.

“Anywhere in there, 20-1 or higher, 3-4-5 on Gilbert Burns.”

Gilbert Burns lost to Mike Malott by TKO in Round 3 at UFC Winnipeg.

“Billy. And then as well, Phillips on the money line at around plus 130. I make him a favorite”

Charles Jourdain defeated Kyler Phillips by unanimous decision — Phillips's moneyline lost. (Jourdain def. Phillips, unanimous decision)

“I think I make this around minus 120 to end inside the distance, and they're giving you plus money at around plus 115 on a binary fight.”

Gage Young defeated Thiago Moisés by split decision — the fight went the full distance, so the 'ends inside the distance' pick lost. (Young def. Moisés, split decision (went to judges))

“at around plus 300. So Gage Young on the money line, Gage Young by KO at plus 300,”

Gage Young won by split decision over Tiago Moises, not by KO.

“but also Hokit by KO as well, plus 260. [18:08] I think I make that prop closer to plus 200.”

Josh Hokit beat Curtis Blaydes by unanimous decision, not by KO, at UFC 327.

“And then also, I make Costa to win by decision [22:23] about plus 250. [22:24] I think you can get five to one on that bet”

Paulo Costa beat Azamat Murzakanov by TKO (head kick) in Round 3, not by decision.

“So interested in Pitbull on the money line, interested in his point spread as well.”

Aaron Pico defeated Patricio Pitbull by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC 327. (Pico def. Pitbull by unanimous decision)

“Plus 133, I think is fine. [31:55] You could also look for a live bet as well.”

Tatiana Suarez submitted Loopy (Lupita) Godinez via rear-naked choke at 2:29 of Round 2 at UFC 327. (Suarez def. Godinez by submission, R2 2:29)

“And we're getting Prado all the way at plus 160.”

Charles Radtke defeated Francisco Prado by unanimous decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-26) at UFC 327. (Radtke def. Prado by unanimous decision)

“And then I also [54:28] like the fight to end inside the distance as well.”

Padilla vs. Medeiros went the full 3-round distance and was decided on the judges' scorecards (majority draw) — it did not end inside the distance. (Fight went to a decision (majority draw) after 3 rounds)

“I'm going to go back to the fight between Tabitha Ricci and Verna Jandahoba. [41:26] This is my best bet.”

Virna Jandiroba defeated Tabatha Ricci by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) in the UFC Vegas 115 co-main event. (Jandiroba def. Ricci, unanimous decision)

“This fight is around minus 220 to go to a decision. [15:21] I'm taking the underdog here as well.”

Dione Barbosa defeated Melissa Gatto by majority decision (28-28, 29-27, 29-27) at UFC Vegas 115. (Barbosa def. Gatto, majority decision)

“I like Estevam as the underdog here. [19:34] I make this also close to a pick-em fight, [19:37] so getting plus 125 is fine down to about plus 115.”

Ethan Ewing defeated Rafael Estevam by KO (body shot) in round 3 (1:44) at UFC Vegas 115. (Ewing def. Estevam, KO R3 1:44)

“So as a result, the fight to go to a decision at about minus 165 in addition to the Estevam side of the money line.”

Ethan Ewing finished Rafael Estevam by KO in round 3 (1:44) — the fight did not go to a decision, so this bet lost. (Ewing def. Estevam, KO R3 1:44 (finished, no decision))

“Under one and a half here is plus money. I'll probably be playing that.”

Tresean Gore submitted Azamat Bekoev via guillotine choke at 3:27 of round 3 at UFC Vegas 115 — roughly 2.7 rounds elapsed, well over the 1.5-round Under. (Gore def. Bekoev, submission R3 3:27 (~2.7 rounds))

“That's the fight to start round four at minus 160.”

Joe Pyfer TKO'd Israel Adesanya at 4:18 of Round 2, so the fight did not reach Round 4.

“and his decision number at plus 340.”

Adrian Yanez vs Ricky Simon ended in a majority draw, so Yanez did not win by decision.

• Julian Erosa ML
• Over 1.5 rounds

“I think the over one and a half is plus 135.”

Julian Erosa lost by KO (strikes) at 3:33 of Round 1 to Lerryan Douglas — both the moneyline leg and the over-1.5-rounds leg lost, since the fight didn't reach the second round. (Both legs lost)

“on Navajo Sterling to win by decision against Bruno Lopez.”

Navajo Stirling beat Bruno Lopes by TKO in Round 2, not by decision, so the prop lost.

“certainly on opening day. It was my biggest projected edge when I first opened up the numbers.”

BAL 2, MIN 1 — Minnesota Twins lost; moneyline busts.

“and you can get even money.”

Riley vs Aswell went the full distance (Riley won by unanimous decision), so it did not end inside the distance.

“But Patterson on the money line, one of my favorite bets this week,”

Michael Page defeated Sam Patterson by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC Fight Night London. (MVP def. Patterson, UD)

“Chericic. So my bets here, Sutherland at two to one or better in the over one and a half,”

Brando Pericic defeated Louie Sutherland by TKO (punches) at 1:48 of Round 1. (Pericic def. Sutherland, TKO R1 1:48)

“Chericic. So my bets here, Sutherland at two to one or better in the over one and a half,”

Fight ended by TKO at 1:48 of Round 1 (Pericic over Sutherland) — total fight length was under 1.5 rounds. (Ended R1 1:48)

“I specifically, though, I'm taking CLD inside the distance.”

Christian Leroy Duncan won by unanimous decision (went the distance), so he did not win inside the distance.

“But I do make the ghost of the decision north of 2-1,”

Danny Silva finished Kurtis Campbell by TKO in round 2, so the fight did not go to a decision.

“but I do like him as a bet this weekend up to about minus 250 on the money line.”

Nathaniel Wood defeated Losene Keita (the fighter referred to as "Lo Sanketa") by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28). (Wood def. Keita, split decision)

“I'm on the dog Lemos at about plus 170. [12:40] I make her closer to plus 140.”

Gillian Robertson (listed as 'Jillian') beat Amanda Lemos by unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 114 (Mar 14); Lemos ML lost. (Robertson def. Lemos, unanimous decision)

“I like two plus money. [18:41] That's on this fight. [18:42] Silva, plus 151 or plus 150. [18:46] I make him plus 115.”

Charles Johnson beat Bruno Silva by split decision at UFC Vegas 114; Silva ML lost. (Scorecards 28-29, 29-28, 30-27 for Johnson)

“And then the fight ends inside the distance. [18:51] I make minus 126. [18:53] You can get plus 118 if you shop around.”

Charles Johnson beat Bruno Silva by split decision, so the fight went the distance.

“uh i make oki about plus 170 so i take him to roughly plus 200 or better but i also like the [22:23] ends inside the distance here too i make that closer to minus 200 and i took minus 165”

Event listed as 'Bellagio Oki vs. Manuel Sosa' — actual UFC Vegas 114 bout was Bolaji Oki vs. debuting Manoel Sousa. Sousa finished Oki (earning a $100K bonus), so the Oki ML pick lost. (Manoel Sousa def. Bolaji Oki (finish))

“It went inside the distance though Would take it at minus 150 up to about minus 165”

Jose Delgado beat Andre Fili by split decision, so the fight went the distance.

“I actually prefer C in the over one and a half rounds at plus 136. [35:44] I think that's his best win condition.”

Ion Cutelaba submitted Oumar Sy (mislabeled Umar Sei/Kudalaba) by guillotine at 4:21 of round 1, under 1.5 rounds.

“But Orobai inside the distance is the play down to about plus 150 in this fight.”

Myktybek Orolbai beat Chris Curtis by unanimous decision, so it did not end inside the distance.

“The bet that I did make, Petrino inside the distance, [43:52] I make that about minus 125. [43:53] I got minus 103.”

Vitor Petrino beat Steven Asplund by unanimous decision, not inside the distance.

“So Tavares, by decision, a small bet at 2-1. [47:48] I take that down to about plus 180.”

Eryk Anders beat Brad Tavares by unanimous decision, so Tavares did not win by decision.

“I do make fight ends inside the distance about minus 180. [53:18] I took minus 159.”

Hecher Sosa beat Luan Lacerda by unanimous decision, so the fight did not end inside the distance.

“The unders inside the distance, minus 225.”

Holloway vs Oliveira 2 went the full five rounds (Oliveira 50-45 unanimous decision), so the inside-the-distance under lost.

“So I make Fajera about plus 140.”

Batch's event field ('Vitor Petrino vs Gregory Rodrigues') doesn't match the actual UFC 326 card; Rodrigues's real opponent was Brunno Ferreira ('Fajera'/'Fajeda' in the transcript, a phonetic mis-transcription, +130 to +170 underdog matching the quoted odds). Rodrigues finished Ferreira by first-round knockout, so the Ferreira ML underdog pick lost. (Gregory Rodrigues def. Brunno Ferreira, KO, Round 1)

“So plus 200 on a guy who I favor to win the third round,”

Raul Rosas Jr. beat Rob Font by unanimous decision at UFC 326 (16 takedowns); Font ML lost. (Scorecards 30-27, 30-27, 30-27 for Rosas Jr.)

“We also, though, like the plus three and a half on the point spread.”

Rosas Jr. swept Font 30-27 on all three cards, a combined scorecard margin of 9 points across the three judges — well beyond the 3.5-point spread, so Rosas covered -3.5 and Font +3.5 lost. (Scorecards 30-27, 30-27, 30-27 (combined margin 9) for Rosas Jr.)

“Not 100% sure on that, but Ricky Tercios at plus 159, plus 160, you can call it, against Alberto.”

Alberto Montes submitted Ricky Turcios via d'arce choke 40 seconds into round 2 at UFC 326; Turcios ML lost. (Montes def. Turcios, submission (d'arce choke), Round 2 (0:40))

“What I will lock in now is,”

Cody Garbrandt beat Xiao Long by unanimous decision (went the full distance) at UFC 326, so the inside-the-distance prop lost.

“But I show a bigger edge on the Dominican Republic. Like I make them about plus 355. So anything four to one or better on the DR, I think is a good bet right now.”

2026 WBC was won by Venezuela (beat USA 3-2 in the final, Mar 17). The Dominican Republic finished third, so DR-to-win lost.

“My projection was pointing towards the KO prop but I happy to just take the ITD odds I make it about minus 112 I think DraftKings was offering about plus 105”

Daniel Zellhuber lost to Bobby Green by TKO in Round 2, so he did not win inside the distance.

“round two is plus 300 round three is plus 600 um and marshall over one and a half takedowns”

Marshall submitted Silva via R1 rear-naked choke at 2:29 after a single double-leg takedown, landing only 1 takedown (need 2+ for over 1.5).

“So Fluffy, for me, is actually a little undervalued here. [7:53] I like him up to about minus 300. [7:56] That's where I projected him as a parlay piece.”

Anthony Hernandez lost the fight by TKO in round 3, so his moneyline pick loses. (Strickland def. Hernandez via TKO (strikes), 2:23 of Round 3)

“I like Judas to finish her and get it done pretty quickly. [39:27] Minus 125 to win in round one and round two.”

Carli Judice won by unanimous decision over Juliana Miller, not a Round 1 or 2 finish.

“I actually show value on DelVal to win by submission. He's as high as plus 290. [42:01] I make that line closer to plus 150.”

Yadier del Valle lost by unanimous decision to Jordan Leavitt, so no submission win.

“I also, though, like him to win in round one or round two at minus 115.”

Yadier del Valle lost by unanimous decision to Jordan Leavitt, not a Round 1 or 2 win.

• Carli Judas to win in round 1 or round 2
• Yadier del Valle to win in round 1 or round 2

“if you parlay the [42:12] Miller, or sorry, the Judas and Yadier DelVal props to win in round one or round two, minus 125, [42:19] minus 115. [42:21] That pays out closer to about plus 240”

Both parlay legs failed: Carli Judice beat Juliana Miller by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) — a full-distance win, not a round 1/2 finish — and Yadier del Valle lost by unanimous decision to Jordan Leavitt (29-28, 29-28, 30-27), so neither 'win in R1/R2' prop hit. (Judice def. Miller (dec.); Leavitt def. del Valle (dec.))

“Additionally, I like the fight hand inside the distance. [44:25] Plus 115, I make it about minus 125.”

Alden Choria beat Luis Gurule by unanimous decision, so the fight went the distance.

“So we both like Delia here. [47:46] I make him about minus 160. [47:48] I think you could take him up to minus 150.”

Serghei Spivac defeated Ante Delija by unanimous decision at UFC Houston; Delija's moneyline lost. (Spivac def. Delija via unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28))

“Decision only plus 205 and agree on the live bet as well.”

Ramiz Brahimaj lost by unanimous decision to Punahele Soriano; decision-only bet did not cash.

“My favorite underdog on this card is the biggest underdog on the card. [19:10] That is Weston Wilson at plus 800 or higher against Yeezah.”

Yizha (opponent, listed as 'Yeza Iza') knocked out Weston 'Westin' Wilson in 37 seconds at UFC Shanghai on Aug 23, 2025. (Yizha def. Wilson, KO, Round 1, 0:37)

“Now, this is a fight and a bet that I have conviction and will be playing on Saturday.”

Pereira lost by KO to Daukaus in Round 1; no Pereira KO/TKO win. (Lost via KO R1 0:43)

“So long, plus 105 to minus 120, live after round one,”

SuYoung You defeated Zhao Long (Xiao Long) by unanimous decision at UFC Shanghai on Aug 23, 2025. (You def. Long, unanimous decision (29-28 x3))

“I'm on both Kavanaugh's side and the Kavanaugh finish.”

Charles Johnson knocked out Lonnie 'Lone'er' Kavanaugh in round 2 at UFC Shanghai on Aug 23, 2025. (Johnson def. Kavanagh, KO, Round 2, 4:35)

“i like kavanaugh to get the finish at plus 400 but he has 61 percent um striking defense”

Lone'er Kavanagh was KO'd by Charles Johnson in Round 2; he did not win by finish. (Lost via KO R2 4:35)

“Or if you just take the under one and a half at plus 140.”

Du Plessis vs Chimaev went the full five rounds to decision; over 1.5 rounds. (Chimaev won by UD after 5 rounds.)

“I make him closer to minus 200, minus 220. [13:26] I would bet him up to about minus 200.”

Lerone Murphy knocked out Aaron Pico with a spinning back elbow in Round 1 at UFC 319, so the Pico moneyline lost. (Murphy def. Pico by KO, Round 1, 3:21)

“I make Barbosa about plus 140. [23:39] I would bet her to plus 150.”

Karine Silva defeated Dione Barbosa by unanimous decision at UFC 319, so the Barbosa moneyline lost. (Silva won 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

“I also make her decision prop about plus 200. [23:45] You can bet that at plus 280 currently.”

Karine Silva beat Dione Barbosa by unanimous decision; Barbosa lost, so 'Barbosa by decision' fails. (Silva def. Barbosa 29-28 x3.)

“So a couple of different approaches. I'm probably going to have an under one and a half ticket, maybe an under two and a half ticket.”

Dolidze vs Hernandez ended in Round 4 (Hernandez submission at 2:45), so it went over 1.5 rounds.

“So McConnigo live, McConnigo round two, round three,”

Cody Brundage beat Eric McConico by split decision; McConico did not win in Round 2.

“So McConnigo live, McConnigo round two, round three,”

Cody Brundage beat Eric McConico by split decision; McConico did not win in Round 3.

“And then Stolyar Renko, I'll probably poke at plus 350 in the event that she does secure that round one submission.”

Gabriella Fernandes defeated Julija Stoliarenko by decision at UFC Vegas 109, so the Stolyarenko moneyline lost. (Fernandes def. Stoliarenko)

“but I did make Edwards' decision line about minus 150 here and they're giving you plus 108. So I basically have no choice but to fire at her decision prop”

Joselyne Edwards beat Priscila Cachoeira by KO/TKO in Round 1, not by decision.

“to potentially finish him in round two at plus 1600 for round three at 26 to one. And I think”

Urbina was knocked out by Uros Medic in round 1 (1:03), so he did not win in round 2.

“to potentially finish him in round two at plus 1600 for round three at 26 to one. And I think”

Urbina was knocked out by Uros Medic in round 1, so he did not win in round 3.

“Angie by decision at two to one seems kind of enticing relative to her money line.”

Iasmin Lucindo beat Angela Hill by unanimous decision, so Hill did not win by decision.

“Let's start with my bigger dogs and Nathan Fletcher. [12:54] at about plus 330 against Rania Nakamura.”

Rinya Nakamura TKO'd Nathan Fletcher (body kick and punches) in round 1. (Nakamura def. Fletcher TKO-1)

“So I'm going to be taking the GTD instead at about plus 140.”

Nick Klein won by KO/TKO in Round 2; the fight did not go the distance.

“But I like Zaleski to win inside the distance. [28:53] You're getting about plus 185.”

Neil Magny KO'd Zaleski dos Santos in Round 2; Zaleski did not win.

“And I like his KO prop at plus 350. [29:00] I projected that closer to plus 190.”

Zaleski lost via Round 2 KO to Magny, so no Zaleski KO.

“Because I do like Rob Prefight up to about minus 160.”

Reinier de Ridder defeated Robert Whittaker by split decision (48-47, 48-47, 47-48) in Abu Dhabi. (de Ridder def. Whittaker split decision)

“I think Almeida could just explode take him down and finish him inside of five minutes [27:38] And they're giving us about plus 200 for Almeida to do so.”

Martin Buday beat Marcus 'Buchecha' Almeida by unanimous decision; Buchecha did not win, let alone in Round 1. (Buday def. Almeida 29-28 x3.)

“Leal in under two and a half rounds on a same game parlay is minus 125. [33:56] Leal in under one and a half rounds is plus 140. [34:00] I might bet both of those and then bet his round one prop as well.”

Muslim Salikhov beat Carlos Leal; Leal did not win in under 2.5 rounds (or at all). (Salikhov def. Leal.)

“so I love the money line for Demagra Medov it's actually gone against me a [39:03] little bit since I bet it earlier in the week I'd play that to like minus 120 or so inside the [39:08] distance, I think probably like 180, something like that.”

Bryce Mitchell defeated Said Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision (29-28 x3), surviving an early knockdown to win his bantamweight debut. (Mitchell def. Nurmagomedov UD)

“So Vittori a little bit pre-fight, plus 185, and then by decision plus 260.”

Brendan Allen defeated Marvin Vettori by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC 318. (Allen def. Vettori UD)

“So Vittori a little bit pre-fight, plus 185, and then by decision plus 260.”

Brendan Allen beat Marvin Vettori by unanimous decision at UFC 318; Vettori lost, not won. (Allen def. Vettori 30-27, 30-27, 29-28.)

“on the money line i like him as a parlay piece for this card on saturday i just think daniel”

Daniel Rodriguez defeated Kevin Holland by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC 318. (Rodriguez def. Holland UD)

“main card. I like this fight to end inside the distance or the under two and a half rounds at”

Michael Johnson defeated Daniel Zellhuber by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) — the fight went the full 3 rounds, so it did not finish under 2.5 rounds. (Johnson def. Zellhuber UD, went the distance (3 rounds))

“In addition to Zellhuber by KO at plus 185”

Michael Johnson beat Daniel Zellhuber by unanimous decision; Zellhuber did not win by KO. (Johnson def. Zellhuber 29-28 x3.)

“I would bet the GTD to plus 125.”

Jimmy Crute submitted his UFC 318 opponent (Marcin Prachnio) by armbar in Round 1; the fight did not go to decision. (Crute def. Prachnio by submission (armbar), R1 4:42.)

“And then I also like Kroot by decision.”

Crute won by Round 1 armbar submission, not by decision. (Crute def. Prachnio by submission, R1.)

“I would bet him up to minus 250.”

Patricio 'Pitbull' Freire defeated Dan Ige by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC 318. (Freire def. Ige UD)

“his double chance prop, his decision or knockout double chance prop at minus 185.”

Patricio Pitbull beat Dan Ige by unanimous decision; Ige lost (double-chance on Ige fails). (Pitbull def. Ige 29-28 x3.)

“Let's go to your best bet, Francisco Prado against Nikolai Veritenikov.”

Nikolay Veretennikov defeated Francisco Prado by split decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC 318. (Veretennikov def. Prado split decision)

• Over 0.5 rounds
• Under 4.5 rounds

“the over half a round combined with the shara is minus 116 on a same game parlay which i think is”

Derrick Lewis KO'd Tallison Teixeira in just 35 seconds of round 1 — nowhere near the 'over half a round' (2:30) threshold required by the SGP's first leg, busting the parlay outright. (TKO, R1 0:35)

“But we both like Bonfim to win in round one or two at plus 125.”

Bonfim won but by split decision (went the distance), not in R1 or R2. (Bonfim split decision)

“So I like the over in this matchup between Lane and Petrino. The over one and a half rounds is”

Vitor Petrino submitted Austen Lane via rear-naked choke at 4:16 of round 1 (~0.85 total rounds), under the 1.5-round total. (Sub (RNC) R1 4:16)

“I also like to go to a decision at about plus 400. I make that GTD line about plus 335.”

Petrino submitted Lane (RNC) at 4:16 of R1; fight did not reach a decision. (Vitor Petrino def. Austen Lane via submission, R1)

“And I'm interested in sprinkling Lane as well at about 5 to 1.”

Austen Lane was submitted (rear-naked choke) by Vitor Petrino at 4:16 of round 1. (Sub (RNC) R1 4:16)

“I think he's a good bet to both win by decision at plus 450 and to win by split decision at 10 to 1 with the home crowd behind him”

Landwehr lost; Charriere won by TKO in R3, not a decision. (Charriere def. Landwehr via KO/TKO, R3)

“and to win by split decision at 10 to 1 with the home crowd behind him as a high volume, high paced fighter going against Charrier.”

Landwehr lost by TKO in R3; no split decision. (Charriere def. Landwehr via KO/TKO, R3)

“and then also sprinkle the TD prop at plus 400”

Tokkos submitted Tafa in R2; fight did not reach a decision. (Tuco Tokkos def. Junior Tafa via submission, R2)

“just go ahead and save davis or i play the fight gtd at plus 160 uh billy any thoughts on Mike Davis and Mitch Ramirez”

Davis stopped Ramirez by TKO at 4:08 of R2; no decision. (Mike Davis def. Mitch Ramirez via TKO, R2)

“and they're giving you plus 110 on this fight, GTD.”

Martinez's bout (vs Fatima Kline) ended by TKO at 2:36 of R3; did not go to decision. (Kline def. Martinez via TKO, R3)

“I bet him to minus 110.”

Steve Garcia beat Calvin Kattar by unanimous decision at UFC Nashville. (Garcia def. Kattar UD)

“Sometimes I made his KO prop about plus 500. You can bet that down to about plus 550. I would poke it.”

Kara-France lost via R3 submission to Pantoja; KO bet busts. (Kara-France lost by SUB R3)

“I made his money line about plus 170 would play that small to plus 185, just a very binary fight.”

Alexandre Pantoja submitted Kai Kara-France via rear-naked choke in Round 3 (1:55) at UFC 317 to retain the flyweight title. (Pantoja def. Kara-France by submission, Round 3, 1:55)

“So give me Araujo plus 210. I think she'll be the better fighter for the first 10 minutes.”

Tracy Cortez defeated Viviane Araujo via unanimous decision (30-27 x3) at UFC 317. (Cortez def. Araujo by unanimous decision, 3 rounds)

“But I really like Slava to win in round two at plus 750 or to win in round three at 16 to one”

Borshev lost; McKinney submitted him at 0:55 of R1. (McKinney SUB R1 0:55)

“But I really like Slava to win in round two at plus 750 or to win in round three at 16 to one”

Borshev lost; McKinney submitted him at 0:55 of R1. (McKinney SUB R1 0:55)

“But I actually also like this fight to go to a decision at plus 170. I projected that closer to about plus 120.”

Delgado KO'd Amil at 0:26 of R1; fight did not reach a decision. (Delgado KO R1 0:26)

“So for all that reason, I took Hill [6:39] when he was slightly plus money.”

Khalil Rountree Jr. defeated Jamahal Hill via unanimous decision (49-46, 50-45, 50-45) at UFC Fight Night Baku, June 21, 2025. (Rountree Jr. def. Hill by unanimous decision, 3 rounds)

“So give me Kuniev plus 220.”

Curtis Blaydes defeated Rizvan Kuniev via split decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29) at UFC Fight Night Baku. (Blaydes def. Kuniev by split decision, 3 rounds)

“Yeah, as you mentioned, I lean to ghost the [42:42] decision. I make that. I make that minus money. You can get plus 135 on that prop.”

Orolbai submitted Musayev by kimura in Round 1; fight did not reach a decision. (Orolbai def. Musayev SUB (kimura) R1 (4:35))

“But I do think Maverick, the value side, made her, again, plus 170. So plus 185 or better, I think, would be a solid money line play for me.”

Rose Namajunas defeated Miranda Maverick by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC Atlanta — Maverick's ML lost. (Namajunas def. Maverick, unanimous decision)

“but I'll certainly be waiting for a live bet on Andre Petroski.”

Edmen Shahbazyan defeated Andre Petroski by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC Atlanta — Petroski's ML lost. (Shahbazyan def. Petroski, unanimous decision)

“Move on to my favorite underdog in this card That would be Court McGee at plus 275 against Michael Chiesa”

Michael Chiesa defeated Court McGee by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC Atlanta — McGee's ML lost. (Chiesa def. McGee, unanimous decision)

“His odds to win in round two are plus 280.”

Abdul-Malik beat Brundage by technical decision (went the distance), not a Round 2 finish. (Abdul-Malik def. Brundage technical decision)

“So Losa up to minus 140, not quite a max bet, but a bet I'm still interested in making this weekend.”

Phil Rowe finished Ange Loosa via TKO in round 3 at UFC Atlanta — Loosa's ML lost. (Rowe def. Loosa, TKO R3)

“I actually do think there is value on Sean O'Malley's money line. I would project him closer to about plus 180.”

Merab Dvalishvili submitted Sean O'Malley (D'Arce/north-south choke) at 4:42 of round 3 at UFC 316 (June 7, 2025) to retain the bantamweight title — O'Malley's ML lost. (Dvalishvili def. O'Malley via submission, R3 4:42)

“So GTD were passed for me, probably a quarter unit. Play there, nothing too substantial,”

Kayla Harrison submitted Julianna Pena via kimura in Round 2; fight did not reach the distance (over 4.5 rounds lost). (Sub R2)

“So I projected Holland's K-Low line at about plus 150. I would bet that down to plus 160.”

Kevin Holland beat Luque by submission (d'arce choke) in Round 2, not by KO/TKO. (Sub R2 1:03)

“And I make his inside the distance line about plus 113. You can bet that at plus 180. So Spivak inside the distance, maybe the money line as well.”

Waldo Cortes-Acosta beat Serghei Spivac by unanimous decision; the fight went the distance, so Spivak inside the distance loses. (UD, 3 rounds)

“of the three, if I'm betting one horse to win, it's the number six Baeza. I think he's the best value on the board.”

Sovereignty won the 2025 Belmont Stakes; Baeza finished third. (1. Sovereignty 2. Journalism 3. Baeza)

“Likelier, six over seven, ice cold is I think how I'm playing it. Baeza getting first run on journalism.”

Belmont finish: Sovereignty, Journalism, Baeza. Exacta Baeza over Journalism missed. (Sovereignty won; Journalism 2nd, Baeza 3rd)

“I like him ITD at plus 600.”

Gamrot won by unanimous decision; the fight went the distance, not inside. (Gamrot UD (30-27 x3))

“So small pre-fight bet on Dushko, plus 200, probably looking for a live bet after round one, assuming he doesn't get hurt bad or die.”

Zachary Reese defeated Dusko Todorovic by unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 107. (Reese def. Todorovic 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

“So I projected her around minus 145 would bet Macy Chasson up to minus 130.”

Ketlen Vieira defeated Macy Chiasson by unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 107. (Vieira def. Chiasson 29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

“I like that goes to decision of plus 165.”

Gabe Green submitted Matheus Camilo (RNC) in Round 2; did not reach decision. (Green def. Camilo, sub R2 3:43)

“I'd much rather bet her decision prop and take the loss at plus 550 than watching her get finished for the third time in Tisha Pennington's career in round three. [29:32] So yeah, Panera by decision plus 550.”

Pinheiro lost by unanimous decision to Tecia Pennington; decision win bet loses. (Pennington UD (29-28 x3))

“my Xacta is going to be pretty simple. [29:20] The number two journalism over the number six River Thames and the number eight Clever. [29:24] Again”

Journalism won but Gosger ran 2nd; neither River Thames nor Clever Again completed the exacta. (Exacta: Journalism (2) over Gosger (9))

“Fioro minus 125 pre-fight, best available number. [21:36] That's roughly where it opened.”

Valentina Shevchenko defeated Manon Fiorot by unanimous decision (48-47 x3) at UFC 315. (Shevchenko def. Fiorot, UD (48-47, 48-47, 48-47))

“So Buffalo, Chucky Buffalo, Charles Radke, Moneyline pre-fight, KO pre-fight at plus 360.”

Mike Malott defeated Charles Radtke (Radke) by KO (strikes) at 0:26 of Round 2 at UFC 315. (Malott def. Radke, KO R2 0:26)

“I think her minus three and a half at even money [40:11] may be the better bet.”

Natalia Silva defeated Alexa Grasso by unanimous decision, 30-27 on all three cards at UFC 315. UFC fight-spread rules require winning by more than the listed margin on the scorecards for a decision to cover; a 3-point sweep does not clear a -3.5 line, so despite winning the fight outright the spread bet loses. (Silva def. Grasso, UD (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) — 3-pt margin, short of -3.5)

“I'm going to go with Ian Kudalaba at minus 110 against Modestus Bukowskis.”

Modestas Bukauskas defeated Ion Cutelaba by split decision (30-27, 29-28, 27-30) at UFC 315. The batch entry's 'Ivan Kudelaba' is a mishearing of Ion Cutelaba, the actual opponent on this card; Cutelaba lost. (Bukauskas def. Cutelaba, split decision (30-27, 29-28, 27-30))

“The horse I like best at current odds”

Burnham Square finished 6th in the 2025 Kentucky Derby, won by Sovereignty. (Burnham Square 6th)

“and that is on michelle herrera at minus 142 against abu smagomedov who's currently about plus 125”

Abus Magomedov defeated Michel Pereira by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) at UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates. (Magomedov dec. Pereira, 30-27 x3)

“I also like him to win inside the distance at plus 150.”

Pereira won but by unanimous decision, so he did not win inside the distance. (Pereira UD over Magomedov)

“minus 106. I projected this closer to minus 150. Blackshear is very bad striking defense. Defense”

Blackshear beat Alateng Heili by unanimous decision; fight went the distance. (Blackshear UD)

“I'd much rather bet Onama inside the distance at plus 215”

Onama won but by unanimous decision, not inside the distance. (Onama UD over Chikadze)

“And then I like him actually to win inside the distance at about plus 350.”

Elder won but by unanimous decision, not inside the distance. (Elder UD over Young)

“And then I also like him on the money line at minus 125.”

Timothy Cuamba defeated Roberto Romero by TKO (flying knee and punches) at 3:55 of Round 2 at UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates. (Cuamba TKO2 (3:55))

“I like Romero by decision at about plus 230.”

Romero lost; Cuamba won by KO (flying knee) in round 2, so no Romero decision. (Cuamba KO2 (flying knee))

“I like Patricio's pressure, and I like his grappling upside here at Plus Money.”

Yair Rodriguez spoiled Patricio Pitbull's UFC debut with a one-sided unanimous decision (30-27 x3) at UFC 314; Pitbull's ML lost. (Rodriguez def. Pitbull, unanimous decision (30-27 x3))

“The best angle to me seems like Chase Hooper by KO at 6-1. [34:22] I like that down to about plus 400.”

Chase Hooper beat Jim Miller by unanimous decision, not by KO. (Hooper UD over Miller)

“and then I'll also be betting his KO prop.”

Silva won by submission, not KO, so the by-KO prop busts. (Silva def. Mitchell, SUB (ninja choke) R2)

“Nikita Krylov by knockout at plus 340 against Dominic Reyes.”

Krylov was knocked out by Dominick Reyes in R1; Krylov-by-KO busts. (Reyes def. Krylov, KO R1 (2:24))

“And I also like Lazy Boy by decision at plus 230.”

Rodriguez lost; Kevin Borjas won by unanimous decision, so no Rodriguez decision. (Borjas def. Rodriguez, UD 30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

“Brett Rooker is a guy who I think is actually a potential viable major league home run leader candidate this season.”

2025 MLB home run leader future (Brent Rooker, A's). Rooker hit 30 HR in 2025, far off the lead. Cal Raleigh led MLB with 60 HR. Lost.

“Orvin Carroll, runs leader. It's my favorite player prop to lead the Major League in runs.”

2025 MLB runs scored leader future (Corbin Carroll, D-backs). Carroll scored 107 runs, 6th in the NL and not the MLB leader. Lost.

“Even if you assume DeGrom gets hurt 70% of the time, He's still a decent bet at four to one to lead the league in strikeouts.”

2025 AL strikeout leader future (Jacob deGrom, Rangers). deGrom finished with 185 K. Garrett Crochet (Red Sox) led MLB/AL with 255 K. Lost.

“best bet on the board is the Guardians to miss the playoffs. I'm I'm the highest in the market on the Guardians. I'm at minus two forty on them to miss.”

2025 Cleveland Guardians to MISS the playoffs. The Guardians WON the AL Central (88-74) via a historic late comeback and made the playoffs, so the 'miss' bet loses. Lost.

“The average projections have them about 60% and minus one fifty, you could still get plus money. I think plus one thirty. I took plus one seventy earlier in the off season.”

2025 NL East winner (Atlanta Braves). The Phillies won the 2025 NL East; the Braves went 76-86 and finished 4th, missing the playoffs. Lost.

“I like them to get a buy. I like Texas to potentially win the American League.”

2025 AL pennant (Texas Rangers to win the American League). Rangers went 81-81, missed the playoffs (3rd in AL West). The Blue Jays won the 2025 AL pennant. Lost.

“I'm kinda down on the Yankees this year. Yankees to miss the playoffs in general. The under now that Garrett Cole's hurt, there's really not a lot of depth on the Yankees.”

2025 New York Yankees to MISS the playoffs. The Yankees went 94-68, made the playoffs as the AL's No. 4 seed (wild card), and beat the Red Sox in the Wild Card Series, so the 'miss' bet loses. Lost.

“Logan Gilbert, AL Cy Young. He was the second half strikeout minus walk leader. His velocity increased last year. He changed his pitch mix. Love Gilbert this year.”

2025 AL Cy Young (Logan Gilbert, Mariners). Tarik Skubal won the 2025 AL Cy Young (repeat). Gilbert was not a finalist. Lost.

“Chris Sanchez, AL Cy Young at 51. It seems like a long shot considering he's probably the second or third best pitcher on his team beyond Zach Wheeler.”

2025 Cy Young (Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies — labeled AL but he is NL). Tarik Skubal won AL Cy Young; Paul Skenes won NL Cy Young. Sanchez won neither. Lost.

“I actually just entered a bet in the Action Network app [3:33] on Leon Edwards at plus 140.”

Sean Brady submitted Leon Edwards via mounted guillotine in round 4 (1:39) at UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs Brady — Edwards moneyline loses. (Submission, Rd 4, 1:39)

“So Cody Gibson at about plus 380 to win this fight.”

Da'Mon Blackshear submitted Cody Gibson via kimura at 4:09 of Round 2 at UFC Fight Night 254. (Submission loss for Gibson, R2 4:09)

“So goes to decision how I'm betting that fight [26:28] at about minus 150.”

Carli Judice defeated Uyanuse (Yuneisy) Dubin by TKO (head kick and punches) 1:40 into round 1 — the fight did not go to a decision. (TKO, Rd 1, 1:40)

“And then also Judas, by decision, [26:31] I would bet up to minus 115,”

Carli Judice won by TKO (head kick), not by decision. (Judice def. Duben TKO (head kick))

“So give me AJ Cunningham, [39:04] maybe on the money line at five to one. I actually prefer him by decision at 13 to one.”

Su Young You defeated AJ Cunningham by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) — Cunningham moneyline loses. (Unanimous decision, 30-27 x3)

“So yes, I do like Fizyev on the money line, actually, as opposed to the KO prop, because I do think he can just tear Gaethje up with those body kicks.”

Justin Gaethje defeated Rafael Fiziev by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) in their UFC 313 rematch. (Unanimous decision loss for Fiziev)

“The most, Francis Marshall at plus 230 against Myron Santos.”

Mairon (Myron) Santos defeated Francis Marshall by controversial split decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC 313. (Split decision loss for Marshall)

“So Petrosian live after round one, [37:42] but also taking some pre-fight at minus 135.”

Brunno Ferreira submitted Armen Petrosyan via armbar in Round 2 (4:27) at UFC 313. (Submission loss for Petrosyan, R2 4:27)

“We're aligned here on the over one and a half rounds at plus money.”

Cody Brundage stopped Julian Marquez by TKO at 4:45 of Round 1, so the fight did not reach 1.5 rounds; the over loses. (Brundage def. Marquez, TKO R1 4:45)

“So I'll take Andrea Lee at plus 180. [28:27] Also by decision at plus 270.”

Andrea Lee lost to JJ Aldrich by unanimous decision, so she did not win by decision. (Aldrich def. Lee UD)

“And then my best bet on the card is Charles Energy Johnson at minus 120.”

Ramazan Temirov defeated Charles Johnson by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC Vegas 103, Mar 1 2025. (Unanimous decision loss for Johnson)

“Also plus 190 to win by decision. [30:36] Charles Johnson, I think that should be closer to plus 130.”

Charles Johnson lost to Ramazan Temirov by unanimous decision, so he did not win by decision. (Temirov def. Johnson UD)

“I'm betting Cejudo by decision of plus 390.”

Song Yadong beat Cejudo by technical decision; Cejudo did not win. (Song won technical decision)

“So Sir Carrier pre-fight, you may be able to come back live on Bukowskis.”

Modestas Bukauskas KO'd Rafael Cerqueira at 2:12 of Round 1; Cerqueira ML loses. (Bukauskas def. Cerqueira, KO R1 2:12)

“Eric McConeco at about plus 240. [23:02] I grabbed him last night versus Nurse Sultan Ruzaboyev.”

Nursulton Ruziboev defeated Eric McConico by TKO at 0:33 of Round 2; McConico ML loses. (Ruziboev def. McConico, TKO R2 0:33)

“2-1, plus 210 on Walker is what I took last night.”

Alonzo Menifield defeated Julius Walker by split decision (29-28, 30-27, 28-29); Walker ML loses. (Menifield def. Walker, split decision)

“I'm going to go with Gene Silva by submission at plus 750.”

Jean Silva beat Baghdasaryan by R1 TKO (strikes), not submission. (TKO R1, 4:15 (strikes))

“It goes the distance at about plus 250. That's how I'm betting this fight. It goes the decision in Cannoneer's past two fights”

Cannonier finished Rodrigues by TKO in R4; fight did not go to decision. (Cannonier def. Rodrigues TKO R4 0:21)

“We are in alignment on one prop in particular. That's Cody Steele by submission at plus 380.”

Kody Steele lost to Rongzhu by unanimous decision; no submission win. (Rongzhu def. Steele UD (30-27 x3))

“Give me Prado on the money line at plus 200.”

Jake Matthews defeated Francisco Prado by unanimous decision (30-27 x3); Prado ML loses. (Matthews def. Prado, unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27))

“So Amalvov on the money line, [5:49] plus 140 by decision at plus 310.”

Imavov won but by KO in round 2, not by decision. (Imavov def. Adesanya, KO R2 0:30)

“I'm going to start off [16:49] talking about Thomas Peterson at plus 280 against Shamil Gaziev.”

Shamil Gaziev KO'd Thomas Petersen via one-punch walkoff TKO at 3:12 of Round 1; Petersen ML loses. (Gaziev def. Petersen, TKO (punch), R1 3:12)

“and then the over two and a half rounds i take a plus 125 i would bet that at any plus money price”

Fight ended via TKO 3:12 into Round 1, well short of the 2.5-round line; Over 2.5 rounds loses. (Fight ended R1 3:12 (under 1 full round))

“And then Myra Blino Silva at plus 220 against Jasmine Jess Sudevicius.”

Jasmine Jasudavicius defeated Mayra Bueno Silva by unanimous decision; Bueno Silva ML loses. (Jasudavicius def. Bueno Silva, unanimous decision)

“Yeah, I'm on Alexander here. [23:40] I projected the line closer to minus 150”

Bogdan Grad TKO'd Lucas Alexander in Round 2; Alexander ML loses. (Grad def. Alexander, TKO, R2 4:22)

“Mohamed Naimov, plus 165 to win inside the distance,”

Naimov won but by decision (went the distance), not inside the distance. (Naimov def. Ofli, UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28))

“Carpenter, a very dangerous fighter, undefeated in his career, taking him at plus 265.”

Tagir Ulanbekov defeated Clayton Carpenter by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC 311, handing Carpenter the first loss of his career. (Ulanbekov def. Carpenter, unanimous decision)

“Billy Elacana at plus 280 against Bogdan Guskov.”

Bogdan Guskov's UFC 311 opponent was late-replacement Billy Elekana (the +280 underdog referenced, likely mistranscribed as 'Elias Aukana'); Guskov submitted him via second-round guillotine choke, so the underdog moneyline lost. (Guskov def. Elekana by submission, Rd 2)

“I also like Hill inside the distance at plus 165.”

Jamahal Hill lost to Jiri Prochazka by TKO in round 3; Hill did not win inside the distance. (UFC 311: Prochazka def. Hill TKO R3)

“I do, though, like Jamal inside the distance of plus 165 and then the under two and a half rounds at minus 170”

Jiri Prochazka finished Jamahal Hill by TKO in Round 3 (3:01) at UFC 311 — the fight extended past 2.5 rounds, so the under lost. (Prochazka def. Hill by TKO, Rd 3, 3:01)

“So give me a recent plus 170. I also like the under, probably when this prop's open for this fight.”

Azamat Bekoev (short-notice replacement for Sedriques Dumas) knocked out Zachary Reese in Round 1 (3:04) at UFC 311; Reese's moneyline lost. (Bekoev def. Reese by KO, Rd 1, 3:04)

“you're giving me plus 185 i like yontop on the money line”

Viacheslav Borshchev defeated James Llontop by split decision at UFC Vegas 96; Llontop ML (+185) loses. (Borshchev def. Llontop, split decision (30-27, 29-28, 28-29))

“his round two odds, [45:20] 12 to one is round three odds, [45:21] 18 to one. [45:22] I like both of those a lot.”

Meerschaert won by arm-triangle submission in Round 2, not Round 3. (Meerschaert sub R2 4:12)

“But the two underdogs on the money line that I like straight up, the first, the leech, [21:42] Li Jingling, plus 295.”

Carlos Prates knocked out Li Jingliang in round 2 at UFC 305; Li Jingliang ML (+295) loses. (Prates def. Li Jingliang, KO (punch), R2 4:02)

“His round one submission odds, in particular, at 24 to one. [32:07] I'll put 500ths of a unit on that to win a unit. [32:09] I don't care. [32:10] It's something you have to bet.”

Herbert Burns lost by TKO in Round 3 — R1 submission prop loses. (Jack Jenkins def. Burns via TKO at 0:48 of R3)

“I think Song, not only to win by knockout at plus 145, I made that line plus 125.”

Song Kenan won by unanimous decision, not KO — win-by-KO prop loses. (Song Kenan def. Ricky Glenn via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-26, 29-28))

“But the over three and a half rounds, I think, is the best way to bet this fight.”

Sergei Spivak submitted Marcin Tybura via armbar just 1:44 into round 1, well under 3.5 rounds. (Spivak def. Tybura, submission (armbar) R1 1:44)

“So Jackson pre-fighted about plus 185.”

Chepe Mariscal defeated Damon Jackson by decision (30-25, 30-25, 30-26). (Mariscal def. Jackson, decision)

“So Denise KO plus 335, I think was the best number I saw.”

Diniz won by unanimous decision, not KO — KO prop loses. (Jhonata Diniz def. Karl Williams via unanimous decision)

“So Gregorio inside the distance at minus 120.”

Grigoriou lost by submission to Kazama — his inside-the-distance win prop loses. (Toshiomi Kazama def. Grigoriou via triangle choke at 1:55 of R2)

“Barlow inside the distance at even money is my favorite way to bet this [26:08] fight”

Barlow won by split decision, not inside the distance — bet loses. (Barlow def. Veretennikov via split decision)

“So Bedoya, anything plus 110, plus 105 or better, looks good to be there.”

Jai Herbert defeated Rolando Bedoya by unanimous decision. (Herbert def. Bedoya, unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28))

“So Lupi Godinez at about plus 106.”

Mackenzie Dern defeated Lupita Godinez by unanimous decision. (Dern def. Godinez, unanimous decision (29-28 x3))

“And I also like his round two and round three props at about plus 600 and [24:10] plus 900 respectively.”

Murzakanov won by KO in Round 2, not Round 3 — round 3 prop loses. (KO at 3:18 of Round 2)

“But if I was to place one bet on this card, it would be Mikhail Oleksechuk.”

Shara Magomedov defeated Mikhail Oleksiejczuk by unanimous decision. (Magomedov def. Oleksiejczuk, unanimous decision)

“And the way I'd prefer to bet this fight [6:52] is Leon on the finish only money line at minus 265,”

Belal Muhammad won the welterweight title from Leon Edwards by unanimous decision at UFC 304 — Edwards didn't win at all, let alone by finish, so the finish-only ML lost. (Muhammad def. Edwards by unanimous decision, 48-47 48-47 49-46)

“But I'm going to play that Wood round two plus 430 and round three plus 650 respectively.”

Nathaniel Wood beat Daniel Pineda by unanimous decision; did not finish in Round 2. (Wood UD over 3 rounds.)

“But I'm going to play that Wood round two plus 430 and round three plus 650 respectively.”

Nathaniel Wood beat Daniel Pineda by unanimous decision; did not finish in Round 3. (Wood UD over 3 rounds.)

“and that's why I like the under in Rotterie is.”

Rodrigues-Duncan went the full distance to a unanimous decision (30-27 x3), so the 'ends inside the distance' Under lost. (Full 3-round unanimous decision, 30-27 30-27 30-27)

“So I love Bobby Green live after round one here.”

Paddy Pimblett submitted Bobby Green (triangle) in Round 1; Green lost and did not win. (Pimblett sub R1 (3:22).)

“I think I'd prefer the over three and a half rounds at minus 115 because I could see Verna getting a late finish here.”

Virna Jandiroba submitted Amanda Lemos (armbar) at 4:48 of Round 2 — fight ended well short of 3.5 rounds, so the Over lost. (Jandiroba def. Lemos via submission (armbar), R2 4:48)

“So I kind of like the ghost of the decision of plus 150.”

Jandiroba submitted Lemos (armbar R2); the fight did not reach a decision. (Jandiroba SUB R2 4:48)

“I think she's a little bit undervalued on the money line.”

Pudilova's actual July 20, 2024 opponent was Luana Carolina (not Ailin Perez, per the pick's event field); Carolina beat Pudilova by unanimous decision, so the Pudilova ML lost. (Luana Carolina def. Lucie Pudilova by unanimous decision, 29-28 29-28 30-27)

“So Yuri on the money line at plus money.”

Alex Pereira knocked out Jiri Prochazka via head kick at 0:13 of Round 2 to retain the UFC light heavyweight title at UFC 303, June 29, 2024. (Pereira def. Prochazka, KO R2 0:13)

“But then Arlovsky on the money line at plus 220, and then his decision prop at plus 330 as well.”

Martin Buday defeated Andrei Arlovski by split decision at UFC 303, so the Arlovski moneyline lost.

“But then Arlovsky on the money line at plus 220, and then his decision prop at plus 330 as well.”

Arlovski lost to Martin Buday by split decision, so he did not win by decision. (Buday def. Arlovski split decision)

“I like Alaskara by knockout at plus 270. I also like his round one odds at plus 650.”

Aliskerov lost; Whittaker KO'd him in round 1. (Whittaker def. Aliskerov KO R1 1:49)

“I also like his round one odds at plus 650.”

Aliskerov did not win round 1; he was KO'd by Whittaker in round 1. (Whittaker def. Aliskerov KO R1 1:49)

“But Volkov KO at plus 430, I think is wide compared to his money line.”

Volkov won but by unanimous decision over Pavlovich, not by KO. (Volkov def. Pavlovich UD (30-27, 30-27, 29-28))

“So Maness in round one, minus 105 is interesting. I like Maness round one or two, probably.”

Nate Maness won but by unanimous decision over Jimmy Flick, not a round-1 finish. (Maness def. Flick UD (UFC Vegas 93))

“So I bet Garrett Armfield at minus 180.”

Brady Hiestand submitted Garrett Armfield via rear-naked choke at 1:52 of Round 3 at UFC Vegas 93. (Hiestand def. Armfield, submission R3 1:52)

“But I like Baeza to get this done in round two or round three.”

Punahele Soriano dominated Miguel Baeza, winning by unanimous decision at UFC Louisville; Baeza did not win in round 2. (Soriano UD (30-25, 30-25, 30-27))

“Charlie Radke at plus 200, one of my preferred.”

Charlie Radtke lost to Carlos Prates by TKO (knee to the body) at UFC Louisville. (Prates def. Radtke, TKO (knee), R1 4:47)

“But getting plus 240 on Stammen in a fight likely to go to a decision, likely to be difficult to score, I think absolutely interesting.”

Cody Stamann lost his UFC Louisville bout by unanimous decision (actual opponent was Taylor Lapilus; Julian Erosa fought elsewhere). (Taylor Lapilus def. Cody Stamann, unanimous decision)

“He's about plus 145 in the finish-only market.”

Costa lost to Strickland by split decision at UFC 302; no finish, so finish-only Costa loses. (Strickland def. Costa, split decision)

“But I'll definitely be finding a way to bet Jocelyn Edwards this weekend.”

Joselyne Edwards lost her UFC 302 bout by unanimous decision (opponent was actually Ailin Perez, not Mariya Agapova, who was not on this card). (Ailin Perez def. Joselyne Edwards, unanimous decision)

“So Almeida at minus 115, my final bet for this card, but a bet I do like.”

Cesar Almeida lost to Roman Kopylov by split decision at UFC 302. (Kopylov def. Almeida, split decision 29-28/28-29/30-27)

“under one and a half rounds at minus 135.”

Warlley Alves vs. Abus Magomedov went the full 3 rounds (Magomedov won by unanimous decision), well past the 1.5-round line, so the under lost. (Abus Magomedov def. Warlley Alves, UD 30-26/30-26/30-26, full 3 rounds)

“Ramiz Brahimai, I have to win in rounds one or round two at plus 200.”

Ramiz Brahimaj lost to Themba Gorimbo by unanimous decision; did not win in rounds 1-2. (Gorimbo won 30-27 x3)

“so my exacta I'm gonna say is uh I'm gonna go with”

Preakness 149 won by Seize the Grey; Tuscan Gold finished 4th, Imagination 7th — exacta busted. (Order: Seize the Grey, Mystik Dan, Catching Freedom, Tuscan Gold)

“and then Esteban Rybovic round two or round three plus 650 and plus 1500 respectively”

Esteban Ribovics won, but by KO at 0:37 of Round 1, not in Round 2 or 3. (Ribovics KO (head kick) R1 0:37)

“So Borjas down to about plus 110, plus 105 for me in the first fight on the card.”

Alessandro Costa defeated Kevin Borjas by TKO (strikes) at 1:35 of Round 2 at UFC 301; Borjas lost. (Costa def. Borjas, TKO R2 1:35)

“Yeah, I'm going to take fierceness as my lone A on top.”

Mystik Dan won the 150th Kentucky Derby; Fierceness faded to 15th. (Fierceness 15th of 20)

“So the two that I like, the 15 domestic product, this is the other Chad Brown horse.”

Mystik Dan won the 2024 Kentucky Derby; Domestic Product finished 12th. (Domestic Product 12th)

“So like I said, even though I am handicapping fierceness to win, I like the favorite here.”

Mystik Dan won the 2024 Kentucky Derby; Fierceness finished 15th, so the outright lost.

“I like the over three and a half rounds at minus 125, over four and a half at plus 115. [6:40] That goes to decision at about plus 135 to plus 140.”

The Nicolau-Perez main event ended by KO at 2:16 of Round 2, well short of the Over 3.5 rounds line. (Fight ended R2, 2:16 (KO))

“So taking the dog at plus 280 in a fight that is very likely to see the scorecards [18:21] and hopefully we get a wonky split decision.”

At UFC Vegas 91, Ketlen Souza defeated Marnic Mann ('Man') by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) in the women's strawweight bout; the underdog Mann lost. (Souza def. Mann, UD 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

“I prefer the instant eye distance at plus 225.”

David Onama beat Jonathan Pearce by unanimous decision, not inside the distance. (Onama def. Pearce via UD (29-28 x3).)

“but the minus 110 on the inside the distance you know not a huge discount compared to his money line [25:05] like minus 175, minus 180 versus minus 110.”

Ryan Spann lost outright; Bogdan Guskov won via TKO in Round 2. (Guskov def. Spann via TKO, R2 (3:16).)

“And then finally, Daniel Argueta at about plus 130.”

Jean Matsumoto submitted Daniel (Dan) Argueta via guillotine choke in Round 2 at UFC Vegas 90; Argueta ML loses. (Matsumoto def. Argueta via submission, R2, 4:59)

“But pre-fight, I want Baja Mondes round two at about plus 450 and round three at plus 650.”

Bahamondes won by KO in Round 1, not Round 2. (Bahamondes def. Giagos KO R1 3:34)

“But pre-fight, I want Baja Mondes round two at about plus 450 and round three at plus 650.”

Bahamondes won by KO in Round 1, not Round 3. (Bahamondes def. Giagos KO R1 3:34)

“So I like Jermaine Durandamy at plus money here. I think all of the physical stuff, the physical regression is baked into this line.”

Norma Dumont outwrestled Germaine de Randamie for a unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC Vegas 90; de Randamie ML loses. (Dumont def. de Randamie, unanimous decision)

“So I do like McKee. You may get a better live price on him after round one. I think Chidi will be dangerous for the first round. But I also like McKee pre-fight”

Chidi Njokuani beat Rhys/Reese McKee by split decision at UFC Atlantic City (Mar 30, 2024).

“So Algeo round three by decision, minus 110.”

Bill Algeo lost; Kyle Nelson won by TKO in Round 1. (Nelson def. Algeo TKO R1 4:00)

“I also like his decision prop at plus 125, but I think if he gets a finish, it's very likely to come in round three.”

Bill Algeo lost by TKO R1, no decision. (Nelson def. Algeo TKO R1 4:00)