Guest · 269-380-3 on settled picks
| League | prop | moneyline | futures | total | parlay | spread | other | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 98-167-3% | 108-124-3% | 2-10-68% | 29-9+41% | 7-2+42% | 4-3+7% | 0-5-100% | 248-320-1% |
| MLB | — | 2-1 | 10-47-58% | 8-12-24% | — | — | 1-0 | 21-60-44% |
“Yeah. Kyle Schwarber is back on the list this year. RBI. 35 to one. I made him 20 to one last year for RBI leader. He's 35 to one this year. It was 50 to one last year. So I'm fine betting it at 35 to one still.”
“So the general takeaway and analyzing the futures market this year was much more value in the milestone and ladder props than there is in the outright leader props. The biggest edges I found on outright leader props was Otani RBI leader at 14 to one.”
“I like him, but Victor Scott at 25 to one, I think is a good bet as well.”
“the most interesting market maybe because the totals are so low for win totals or for, for pitcher wins, I should say. the winner of pitcher wins is only going to get 20 right or 22 at most you know compared to saves or strikeouts or hits or home runs like the gap is so much more compressed and everything is a little bit more random but logan webb at 20 to 1 Framber Valdez at 30 to 1 george kirby at 50 to 1 uh i think those are all great bets because what i found doing research into pitcher wins”
“the most interesting market maybe because the totals are so low for win totals or for, for pitcher wins, I should say. the winner of pitcher wins is only going to get 20 right or 22 at most you know compared to saves or strikeouts or hits or home runs like the gap is so much more compressed and everything is a little bit more random but logan webb at 20 to 1 Framber Valdez at 30 to 1 george kirby at 50 to 1 uh i think those are all great bets because what i found doing research into pitcher wins”
“the most interesting market maybe because the totals are so low for win totals or for, for pitcher wins, I should say. the winner of pitcher wins is only going to get 20 right or 22 at most you know compared to saves or strikeouts or hits or home runs like the gap is so much more compressed and everything is a little bit more random but logan webb at 20 to 1 Framber Valdez at 30 to 1 george kirby at 50 to 1 uh i think those are all great bets because what i found doing research into pitcher wins”
“And the point is that Kevin McGonigal is like the best prospect we've ever seen at those skills. The power and speed are pretty good, but he's more of like a 20-20 guy at best. He's not going to go 30-30 or 40-40, but he's probably going to hit 290 and have a really high on base percentage because his swing decisions are so elite. So he's 6-1 right now for rookie of the year. I think his floor is incredibly high, incredibly high. It's just a matter of whether the counting stats get surpassed by somebody else. But McGonagall right now, A.L. rookie of the year, I would lock that in. It's the most recent award bets I made.”
“So he's 6-1 right now for rookie of the year. I think his floor is incredibly high, incredibly high. It's just a matter of whether the counting stats get surpassed by somebody else. But McGonagall right now, A.L. rookie of the year, I would lock that in. It's the most recent award bets I made. So that's why I'm bringing it up. JJ Wetherholt in the NL. Similar case, probably not as good as McGonagall, but another really good swing decisions guy who may not have like the aesthetically pleasing athleticism that you would want, but a very safe floor.”
“completely opposite. So the Minnesota Twins are a team that the public projection market is really high on this year. They have them at about 77.5 wins. I have them at 70.6. Again, 77.5 versus 70.6. Their win total is 72.5. This is a team who is probably going to sell off a lot of pieces at the trade deadline. They did last year. They had to sell off minority shares of their ownership. So not only did they not invest in their roster, they were actively looking for investors into their team so that they could pay their roster. So this is not a team that's going to be adding pieces. It's only a team that's going to be selling pieces. As a result, I'm under their win total. I bet their win total under.”
“the braves are a team who i bet the win total under and i've also bet them to miss the playoffs during spring”
“I bet Houston at plus 155, plus 165 to miss the playoffs.”
“I bet San Diego in a similar range.”
“Right now, that bet that has the humongous edge is Seattle to win the AL West. So I think that's the best bet on the board.”
“It's the Yankees under 92 and a half and the Rays over 76 and a half. [35:56] The Yankees is gone. [35:57] It's down to 90 and a half. [35:59] The Rays over would remain a bet because I have them closer to 80 wins, 81 wins.”
“And then the third team you mentioned is Minnesota. They're an interesting case because they have an ownership battle going on. or they ended up, they were going to sell the team. They ended up selling shares of the team to a minority ownership group. It doesn't seem like they're going to invest in their roster at all. Even the minor league free agents and stuff that they tried to sign in the off season, none of them ended up making the roster and they cut all those guys. So they made no improvements to their roster. Buxton was able to stay healthy last year for the first time in forever. There's a lot of injury risk on this roster too. Pablo Lopez got hurt. Joe Ryan is probably going to get traded at some point. The point is the average public projection has the team at 77 and a half wins. Their win total is 72.5. So everybody says go over. The problem is, even though right now this is a 77, 78 win team, in July it's probably not going to be. This was the most active team at the trade deadline last year. They'll probably be one of, if not the most active teams in terms of selling off pieces this year. So you're looking at a team that right now may be a 78 win team. And right now in the betting market, especially if you're up any day, we'll end up getting there. But right now in the betting market, in terms of a game by game basis, they may be undervalued. But from a season long perspective, I think the public projections are pointing in the wrong direction just because they're not able to accurately capture how much this team will sell in season. So be careful. You know, we talked about averaging out the public projections, using that to help you form a consensus opinion. you do have to weigh that against news and things that are going on in the real world. And the news is all pointing downward for the twins. So do not trust the public projection there. I make them 70.6 and I actually bet the under for that team.”
“My favorite win total over, we didn't get to them. The Marlins over 72 and a half. You could take that up to 75.”
“or is it just something that you ignore Yeah we also had the two favorites went for Cy Young last year as well and Scoobble and Skeens because they stayed healthy So last year was a very chalky awards market because all the favorites stayed healthy for the entire year I think that that is extremely unlikely to happen again, and I think as a result, one of them probably loses their award category. Factor in poor performance, potentially, or just poor variance on top of that. I think Otani is much safer than Judge, because one, Otani DHs, so he doesn't have the probability of getting hurt in the field. He's only going to get hurt on the base pass. Two, he pitches, which adds to his wins above replacement total. And even if he gets hurt as a pitcher, he could still DH and accumulate all the wins above replacement. He does a DH. I think Judge is the likeliest one of those four to get hurt. Judge has a lingering toe issue, which he said he will have to monitor for the rest of his career. But it's something that cannot be fixed. So if it starts to flare up again, he's going to have to miss time. And missing three weeks, four weeks could be enough to open the door for somebody else like a Bobby Wood Jr. or Gunnar Henderson or Julio Rodriguez to potentially pass him in war and end up stealing the award. War, wins above replacement, is the most important correlative stat in terms of predicting the winner for these categories. And you accumulate that one by being good, but two, by playing a full season. So it is, by and large, going to come down to injury for these guys. Scooble is the only one of the four that I bet, only one of the four favorites that I bet.”
“Cease is a guy I bet for Cy Young, for AL Cy Young, which I did also bet Tarek Skool in”
“The wins market to me is very interesting just because there's so much variance, right? And so is there, obviously you're. You can only cap the winner so high. The winner's not going to get more than like 20, right? So the separation is narrow. Skubo's obviously the leader, but I'm assuming you are looking a bit more down the board. Anyone worth mentioning? Yeah, I like his teammate. I like Frambois Valdez. I bet him at about 30 to one.”
“16 plus wins for Fromber is the only wins milestone bet I placed, but it's actually a bigger edge than his outright prop.”
“Winsleader. Kirby, the most optimal bet for me was Winsleader. I don't think I have any other bets on Kirby. If I do, it might be like 200 plus strikeouts. But by and large, I allocated Kirby Winsleader, Wu strikeouts, and Gilbert strikeouts.”
“I bet Gilbert K leader props. I bet Gilbert K ladder props. I bet Brian Wu K leader props I bet Brian Wu K ladder props So I talking like 200 210 plus 220 plus I think there much bigger edges on those props for Gilbert than there is in his wins leader market. But those outcomes are essentially correlated. In order to get to the 200 plus strikeout level, he's going to need to start enough games to be in consideration for the wins leader market.”
“I bet Brian Wu K leader props I bet Brian Wu K ladder props So I talking like 200 210 plus 220 plus I think there much bigger edges on those props for Gilbert than there is in his wins leader market. But those outcomes are essentially correlated. In order to get to the 200 plus strikeout level, he's going to need to start enough games to be in consideration for the wins leader market. So I'm just trying to optimize my betting card, my futures card in terms of the best”
“And if he's going to get there, he's going to strike out 200 plus hitters. This was one of my biggest edges in terms of milestone props. Jacob Marcy's stolen base ladder was my other biggest edge in terms of milestone props. When I was sitting here at home, I was unable to get the money down that I wanted on those props. and as a result ended up traveling out of state and driving three hours each way right before that two-foot blizzard that we got here in New York and round tripping it all within 24 hours so I could get down on most of these props, but especially the Trey Yesavage props. So yeah, I really like Yosavage this year. He is the AL favorite, I believe, for Rookie of the Year alongside his teammate Kazuma Akimoto, who came over from Japan. But essentially, Yosavage's Rookie of the Year odds kind of align, or not even align with. They fall short of his odds to get 200 plus Ks. So why would I bet Yosavage at 6-1 for Rookie of the Year, when in order to win that award, he probably needs to get 200 plus Ks, and I can get 9-1 on his 200 plus K props.”
“Are you thinking about it the same way for RBIs? Do you have anyone you're targeting there? Schwarber, we cashed last year. I'm right on Schwarber again this year at 35 to 1. So the whole the whole thesis with Schrober last year was he used to hit lead off he's moving down to second flipping lineup spots with Trey Turner should add 10-15 RBI to his total I projected him at 20-1 last year they gave me 50-1 I projected him at 21 last year they still gave me 35-1 so yeah I'm backing on Schrober this year 100%”
“And if not, is there anyone you like either the lead in stolen bases or any stolen base props? Yeah, there's two guys I really like from a stolen base perspective from the outright. Three guys I like if you include the milestones. Simpson is absolutely on that list. Simpson is basically Billy Hamilton, except he strikes out half as often as Billy Hamilton. Billy Hamilton had a career 20% strikeout rate. Simpson was at 10% last year. So even though he doesn't walk or get on base, he puts the ball in play always. And the speed is going to get him on base because he's so ridiculously fast. As I said, the fastest home to first time in the stack cast era by like a tenth of a second, which means he's probably the fastest ever. I doubt anybody before the stack cast era was running as fast as this dude. Now, I do project value on his outright prop. I make him about plus 450. I bet him at five to one.”
“I bet Julio Rodriguez for AL MVP.”
“[9:33] And then Sean's last bet, which I'm really excited about, Ian Gary over 33 and a half [9:37] significant strikes.”
Ian Machado Garry stayed below the significant-strikes line. (Ian Machado Garry: 29 significant strikes landed)
“[15:19] to start with giving out Sean's pick and I'm going to do my best to speculate as to how he got to [15:24] those picks just to have done this podcast with him for about four years now I can usually jump [15:29] to that he has Mackenzie Dern's negative point spread to cut that juice the minus five and a half [15:34] which is minus 115”
Mackenzie Dern covered the smaller aggregate judge-point spread. (Scorecards: 49-46, 49-46, 48-47; aggregate margin 7 points)
“[15:29] that he has Mackenzie Dern's negative point spread to cut that juice the minus five and a half [15:34] which is minus 115 the minus 13 and a half which means you need to either win all five rounds or [15:39] get a stoppage at plus 130”
Mackenzie Dern did not cover the larger aggregate judge-point spread. (Scorecards: 49-46, 49-46, 48-47; aggregate margin 7 points)
“[10:15] Yeah, I'm going to take Southkild inside the distance as a set of plus 265. [10:18] Or Southkild by KO, plus 265.”
Quillan Salkilld won by submission rather than KO. (Quillan Salkilld won by submission)
“[10:20] I also actually like the inside the distance. [10:22] I make that closer to minus 200. [10:26] And you're going to get it at minus 170.”
Quillan Salkilld defeated Mateusz Gamrot by submission inside the distance. (Quillan Salkilld won by submission inside the distance)
“[11:31] I'm going to take maybe a small shot on Billy Q pre-fight [11:33] at plus 150 because I make him closer to plus 111.”
Billy Quarantillo lost to Diego Ferreira by unanimous decision. (Diego Ferreira defeated Billy Quarantillo by unanimous decision)
“[15:10] And I'm happy to take, if I need to, a fighter who should be the better grappler at big plus money. [15:15] canuto plus 230 as of right now down to about plus 175”
Carol Foro defeated Giovanna Canuto by unanimous decision. (Carol Foro def. Gigi Canuto via unanimous decision, R3 5:00)
“[25:26] I do like, though, Yadier Doval to finish this fight by submission at plus 290.”
Yadier del Valle won by technical knockout rather than submission. (Yadier del Valle def. Darren Elkins via TKO, R1 0:35)
“[30:05] minus 420 against Billy Goff in the welterweight division I like Miller to finish this fight at [30:09] plus 110”
Ty Miller stopped Billy Ray Goff inside the distance. (Ty Miller def. Billy Ray Goff via TKO, R3 0:15)
“[34:04] And I think Lopez's shin is really suspect. [34:07] Nurgezai, minus 135 on the money line. [34:08] I'll probably like up to around minus 150. [34:11] Even minus, yeah, I make it about minus 160. [34:13] So minus 150 would be my cutoff in terms of his money line price.”
Diyar Nurgozhay defeated Bruno Lopes. (Diyar Nurgozhay def. Bruno Lopes via TKO, R1 4:59)
“[34:17] And then I also like his inside the distance odds. [34:19] At plus 115, I would take that down to about plus 105 for even money.”
Diyar Nurgozhay stopped Bruno Lopes inside the distance. (Diyar Nurgozhay def. Bruno Lopes via TKO, R1 4:59)
“[10:47] Billy likes Sterling to finish at plus 225. I like the fight to end by KO at plus 185 or the fight [10:52] to end inside the distance at plus 140.”
Navajo Stirling defeated Jan Blachowicz by KO/TKO, cashing the knockout-method selection. (Stirling defeated Blachowicz by KO/TKO)
“[10:47] Billy likes Sterling to finish at plus 225. I like the fight to end by KO at plus 185 or the fight [10:52] to end inside the distance at plus 140.”
Navajo Stirling defeated Jan Blachowicz by KO/TKO, cashing the inside-the-distance selection. (Stirling defeated Blachowicz by KO/TKO)
“[13:48] talk about some underdogs they like on this card there's one that i identified he's actually more [13:51] of a best bet than a favorite underdog bat that's tofik musayev at about plus 210”
The listed Musayev-Saint Denis matchup did not occur; the official card instead lists Tofiq Musayev against Ludovit Klein.
“[14:11] rounds. So Musayev plus three and a half [14:13] at about minus 110. Certainly [14:15] a play for both Billy and myself.”
The listed Musayev-Saint Denis matchup did not occur; the official card instead lists Tofiq Musayev against Ludovit Klein.
“[25:33] grad has more takedown upside of the pair but if this fight hits the ground i think he's capable [25:38] of finishing it there too i like this fight to end inside the distance at about minus 108”
Bogdan Grad defeated Dennis Buzukja by submission, cashing the inside-the-distance selection. (Grad defeated Buzukja by submission)
“[25:42] i also like grad on the point spread at minus three and a half at minus 110”
Bogdan Grad defeated Dennis Buzukja by submission, which covers the selected point handicap. (Grad defeated Buzukja by submission)
“[27:49] I like Olivera's point spread here. [27:51] Minus 7.5 at minus 170.”
The listed Oliveira-Pulyaev matchup did not occur; the official card instead lists Michael Oliveira against Oban Elliott.
“[32:14] I like Milo Selvich on the point spread, [32:15] minus seven and a half at minus 130.”
The listed Milosevic-Sygula matchup did not occur; the official card instead lists Nina Milosevic against Hailey Cowan.
“[35:04] just purely handicapping the market in this matchup and it seems like chasing the steam is viable here I make him closer to minus 130 that may continue to change as his line blows out but i comfortable laying him to about that number”
Noah Gugnon defeated Milos Janicic by submission, so the Gugnon moneyline won. (Gugnon defeated Janicic by submission)
“[4:42] And overall, if it does extend, I like Ankoliyev. [4:44] Over one and a half rounds on a same-game parlay with Ankoliyev pays out around even”
Ankalaev won by TKO in Round 5 at 2:41, after the over threshold, so both parlay legs won. (Ankalaev TKO, Round 5, 2:41)
“[9:00] I actually make Temurov closer to minus 125, [9:02] so a small edge at around minus 115 where he is currently.”
Temirov defeated Erceg by KO in Round 1 at 4:21, so his moneyline won. (Temirov KO, Round 1, 4:21)
“[11:21] biggest edge on this week, Damian Ripecki going up against Magomed Zainakov in the lightweight [11:28] division. Ripecki taking him at about plus 240”
Rzepecki lost by unanimous decision, so his moneyline lost. (Zaynukov over Rzepecki by unanimous decision, 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
“[11:28] division. Ripecki taking him at about plus 240 and then the point spread plus five and a half [11:34] as well”
Rzepecki lost every judges' card, so his point spread lost. (Zaynukov over Rzepecki by unanimous decision, 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
“[15:07] Would bet him down to about plus 130. [15:10] And then I also like the fight to end inside the distance at minus 170.”
Walker submitted Petersen in Round 1 at 1:32, so the fight ended inside the distance. (Walker submission, Round 1, 1:32)
“[18:14] Same structure here for me as the Pedersen fight. [18:16] I like the underdog and I like the fight to end inside the distance. [18:20] Sayed around plus 155.”
Saidov defeated Jacoby by TKO in Round 2 at 4:49, so his moneyline won. (Saidov TKO, Round 2, 4:49)
“[18:16] I like the underdog and I like the fight to end inside the distance. [18:20] Sayed around plus 155. [18:21] Fight ends inside the distance around minus 150.”
Saidov stopped Jacoby by TKO in Round 2 at 4:49, so the fight ended inside the distance. (Saidov TKO, Round 2, 4:49)
“[21:10] Davis plus five and a half points, minus 185. [21:13] I think he wins a round and doesn't get finished [21:15] a very high percentage of the time. [21:17] I think that fair odds on that line [21:19] should probably be closer to at least minus 230 and 70%, if not even higher than that. [21:24] So I like Davis plus five and a half at minus 185 as a part lay piece as a potential straight [21:29] bet.”
Davis lost every judges' card, so his point spread lost. (Aliev over Davis by unanimous decision, 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
“[26:09] fight we're going to bleed in a little bit here to our prop section because I like Kuniev by [26:13] decision about plus 155”
Kuniev won by TKO in Round 3 at 1:12 rather than by decision, so the decision prop lost. (Kuniev TKO, Round 3, 1:12)
“[33:09] His round one knockout prop, I saw his highs plus 118. [33:13] Other books, it's juiced at minus 110, minus 115.”
The bout was cancelled after Dulatov withdrew due to illness, so the wager is void.
“[34:43] for his ufcw so hussein by ko i make plus a 190 you can get that as high as plus 250”
Hussein won by submission in Round 3 at 3:07 rather than by KO, so the KO prop lost. (Hussein submission, Round 3, 3:07)
“[37:31] skill set is his grappling. And I think he's going to finish Santiago Ponzinibbio this weekend. And [37:36] the sub prop is significantly higher than his knockout prop. Sub about plus 360. I make that [37:42] closer to plus 275. I like that down to plus 300.”
Patterson won by TKO in Round 2 at 3:06 rather than by submission, so the submission prop lost. (Patterson TKO, Round 2, 3:06)
“[39:55] And then Axel Sol by Kalo, I make at line about plus 140. [39:59] You can get his knockout prop at plus 180.”
Sola won by submission in Round 1 at 4:44 rather than by KO, so the KO prop lost. (Sola submission, Round 1, 4:44)
“what we've got coming right on the rest of the card let's talk about the fight of the night share a bullet magomedov got minus 450 going up against Michel Pereira at plus 335 i like this fight to end inside the distance at about minus 120 i make that prop closer to minus 150 Also some value on Shara Bullet by KO but I rather have the finish equity on both sides here”
Shara Magomedov defeated Michel Pereira by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) — fight went the full distance.
“One bet that we're in full agreement on for this weekend, Javier Reyes at about, well, you took him at minus 155. I took him, or I'm going to take him at about minus 175. I make Reyes minus 240. He's my biggest edge on a projected favorite for this weekend. Con Oafley seemed like a fairly public underdog. Reyes, seven inch reach advantage here. Very aggressive. Oafley, minimal power. I don't really see how he wins minutes in this fight unless Reyes just essentially fades. So I would take Reyes up to about minus 220, minus 225.”
Kaan Ofli defeated Javier Reyes via 1st-round submission at UFC Fight Night Baku. (Ofli def. Reyes, sub (arm-triangle) R1 4:16)
“So my model makes Kopp around a 70% favorite here, about minus 270 on the money line. I will be betting him on the money line, but I also like the fight to end by finish.”
Manel Kape def. Kyoji Horiguchi — UFC's official scorecards record Kape's third-round TKO victory. (TKO, round 3, 2:42)
“so cop i will be betting on the money line up to about minus 250 but then in addition to that the fight to end inside the distance i make that closer to minus 155 would bet that prop up to about minus 140”
Manel Kape def. Kyoji Horiguchi — UFC's official scorecards record a third-round TKO, so the fight ended inside the distance. (TKO, round 3, 2:42)
“Mitch Raposo, about plus 165 going up against Alan Nassimento at minus 190. I think Raposo just keeps getting better and better. But Nassimento is a very reliable grappler, a high-level jiu-jitsu practitioner. Going to look to control this fight on the ground really just comes down to Raposo's wrestling, his resistance, and whether or not he's able to keep this fight standing for decent stretches. I make him a very similar price to how I make Feely, about plus 115. I would also bet him down to plus 150 just not a huge edge at plus 165 as compared to that Philly plus 250 price tag Also may get a better live number on Raposo after round one too But Billy what are your thoughts on Raposo against Alan Nassimento in the flyweight division”
Mitch Raposo def. Allan Nascimento — UFC's official scorecards record Raposo's split-decision win. (Split decision: 29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
“at their current number an underdog for billy a favorite for me let's start with the fight we're in agreement christian rodriguez at about minus 170 going up against hurricane Hyder Amil hider one of my favorite fighters on the roster just love his fighting style but i do think c rod is a kind of his kryptonite as a resistor a guy who's good at extending fights making opponents tired avoiding that early danger, and then turning up the gas in the second and third rounds. I think he should have a wrestling advantage here, and I like him to win this fight at minus 170,”
Christian Rodriguez def. Hyder Amil — UFC's official scorecards record Rodriguez's first-round submission victory. (Guillotine submission, round 1, 3:43)
“Carol Hoz at about minus 120. Luana Santos at even money. Relatively binary, and that if Santos gets this fight to the ground, I think she will have success in keeping it on the ground. But a bit more of Judoka in terms of her takedowns, upper body. I think Hoz has struggled more with lower body, more traditional American style wrestling. So I like her to keep this fight standing and win on volume. Santa is a very popular underdog selection this week as well in terms of how my market model is set up to handicap these fights. This is exactly the type of scenario where vast majority of the public on one side, vast majority of bettors, in my opinion, on the other. 82% of votes on topology, 70% on the other source for Luana Santos. And it's kind of flipped on the betting percentages, 75% of sharp money from what I'm evaluating on Carol Hossa. So Hossa here, I make closer to minus 200, currently listed as minus 120. A bet that my market model forces me to place,”
Luana Santos def. Karol Rosa — UFC's official scorecards record Santos's unanimous-decision victory. (Unanimous decision: 30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
“So Toporia and the under one and a half rounds instead of the round one, round two, you can actually get plus money. So I'll plus 110 on Toporia and under one and a half”
Justin Gaethje def. Ilia Topuria — UFC's official scorecards record Gaethje's fourth-round TKO, so both builder legs lost. (TKO, round 4, 5:00)
“obviously Lewis only needs one and Hokit definitely got hit quite a bit in his last fight against Curtis Blades and I don't think he has any interest necessarily in defense when he gets goes forward uh Lewis is the bigger man too much taller has a six inch reach advantage here I believe as well but the age gap the cardio how he looked in his last fight I think Hokit puts a pace on him and eventually wears him down and knocks him out expecting knockout as opposed to submission i actually project an edge on a hokett's knockout prop on his inside the distance prop uh his ko prop i believe is minus 110 i make that closer to minus 140 inside the distance i make closer to minus 250 i believe and then his money line again i make closer to minus 700 so parlaying josh hokett playing him by knockout or inside the distance what are your thoughts on this”
Josh Hokit def. Derrick Lewis — UFC's official scorecards record Hokit winning by second-round TKO inside the distance. (TKO, round 2, 4:09)
“So Bonfim by decision at five to one”
Gabriel Bonfim beat Belal Muhammad by unanimous decision (50-45 x3) at UFC Vegas 118.
“I make Shabazian a slight favorite, and again, he's about plus 175. Would absolutely want his money on pre-fight. He's arguably my favorite bet on the card. We just had assigned this spot to the fight of the night, so I had to give out my bet here early. had a bit of a difficulty finding a regular best bet for this week. So we will call it Edmund Shabazian as my best bet on this card.”
Brendan Allen defeated Edmen Shahbazyan by unanimous decision in the UFC Vegas 118 co-main event. (Allen def. Shahbazyan, unanimous decision)
“I also like him by KO as well at about plus 350”
Brendan Allen beat Edmen Shahbazyan by unanimous decision; no KO/TKO for Shabazian.
“Favorite underdog beyond Shabazian. Priscila Cachoeira at about plus 105 going up against Chelsea Chandler. Another consensus agreement here for Billy and I arrived at these for separate reasons. I make Cachoeira about a minus 120 favorite listed at plus money. I'd take her to about minus 110.”
Chelsea Chandler submitted Priscila Cachoeira via armbar in Round 1 (3:42) at UFC Vegas 118. (Chandler def. Cachoeira, submission (armbar) R1 3:42)
“I like Brito to knock him out at about three to one.”
Joanderson Brito beat Jordan Leavitt by submission (guillotine) R1, not by KO/TKO.
“My combined best bet this week, again, it was very slim pickings in terms of potential value bets this week. I'm going to give out two favorites that I like more than the market does. Any combined Moneyline Parlay that's going to pay out at about minus 160, but there's plenty of room in terms of both of these favorites. The first is Ketlin Souza, first fight of the card. She's about minus 295 currently. I make her closer to minus 450. Now, this is a rematch against Ariana Cardinal Ossi from 2019. Cardinal Ossi won via round three knockout. But Souza is a completely different fighter, both physically and stylistically, than she was six years ago, seven years ago now at this point. If she proactively grapples, she should win this fight with ease. Even if she doesn't proactively grapple, I'd expect her to be able to outstrike Cardellosi, two-inch reach advantage, inch taller. He's made significant improvements relative to the first fight. So Souza, the first leg of the parlay, Marcus McGee, the second leg of the parlay against John Giannis. McGee coming off of a five-round decision loss with Fyodor Yann, where he took a round off of Yann. Great power, both of his hands. Really good grappler as well. Just an extremely well-rounded fighter coming out of MMA lab. I make McGee closer to minus 650 in this fight. You could absolutely bet his odds to win inside the distance of plus money. But as part of this best bet, I'm going to combine him in a money line parlay with Ketlin Souza. And you could take McGee to about minus 600 and Souza to about minus 450. Currently minus 475 for McGee, minus 295 for Ketlin Souza.”
Both parlay legs hit at UFC Vegas 118: Ketlen Souza KO'd Ariane Carnelossi in Round 1, and Marcus McGhee beat John Yannis by unanimous decision. (Souza def. Carnelossi (KO R1); McGhee def. Yannis (unanimous decision))
“So I will make him a C in my tickets My top pick the number three Chief Wallaby three to one on the morning line I make him I will get his actual odds that I make him in a moment but 2 He actually floated up closer to about 6 as of now was 3 on the morning line If he goes off at 3-1 or better, he's easily my best win bet for this race. I thought he had the worst trip in a derby full of rough trips, got bumped four wide in the upper stretch and still picked off runners to end up finishing fourth. Has a 100 buyer, second best career figure in the field. Beaten in the neck, as you said, by commandment in the Fountain of Youth. I think they're right there with one another. I think he's the more talented of the two. And I think he will get the better pace set up than the number four renegades. Give me the number three Chief Wallaby. My derby pick as the 2026 Belmont Stakes winner.”
Golden Tempo won the 158th Belmont Stakes; Chief Wallaby finished 4th.
“I like the number six crude velocity who is the morning line favorite at nine to five but i make this horse closer to even money”
Crude Velocity (4-5 fav) finished 2nd in the Woody Stephens; Englishman won by 5 3/4 lengths. (Englishman won; Crude Velocity 2nd)
“Your main event, a bantamweight bout between Song Yadong, who's nearly a minus 600 favorite going up against Deiveson Figueiredo, coming back at about plus 450. This fight is plus 106 to go to a decision. And that is the bet that I like for this fight.”
Song Yadong submitted Deiveson Figueiredo via guillotine at 4:42 of Round 2, so the fight did not go to a decision.
“I like Matthews to win this fight by KO at about plus 260 was the best available number I saw.”
Jake Matthews beat Carlston Harris by unanimous decision, not by KO/TKO.
“Let's turn to a fight where you have a best bet on, and I'm targeting a prop play. That's Luis Felipe Diaz at about minus 180 against Yisak Lee, middleweight division. Diaz by submission is around plus 220. I make that closer to plus 200.”
Luis Felipe Diaz beat Yi Sok Lee by TKO (punches), not by submission.
“Give me Alex Perez here up to about minus 160 against Sumiderji.”
Alex Perez vs. Su Mudaerji was ruled a No Contest after an accidental groin strike at UFC Macau, so no winner was declared and the moneyline bet cannot settle. (No Contest (accidental foul), Round 2, 1:45)
“Elise Ardellian going up against Pollyanna Vianna. Vianna about plus 176. Both of us like her as underdogs this weekend. And this is a bit of a consensus play. I make her closer to plus 115. I would bet her down to about plus 125. I think she's the likelier finisher of this fight.”
Polyana Viana lost to Alice Ardelean via 2nd-round submission (capsule lock) at UFC Vegas 117. (Ardelean def. Viana, submission (capsule lock), Round 2, 4:36)
“Let's start with the fight that we have agreement on here in terms of a prop. The first fight on the card, Nicole Cagliari against Shanna Bannon. We both like Cagliari to finish this fight. We're getting a nice big plus 350 price tag on that. That's about where I project that prop a little bit below that number, but I'm comfortable betting it at anything above three to one or better.”
Nicole Cagliari finished Shauna Bannon via arm-triangle submission in round 3 at UFC Vegas 117, winning inside the distance.
“you also like Ivan Urslan to win by decision at about plus 500 uh I am targeting that prop”
Ivan Erslan beat Tuco Tokkos by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC Vegas 117, a win by decision.
“I like the over two and a half rounds at about plus 120.”
Juan Diaz submitted Malcolm Wellmaker at 4:08 of Round 2 (elapsed ~1.8 rounds), finishing before the 2.5-round total. (Diaz def. Wellmaker, submission (RNC), Round 2, 4:08)
“My best bet for Saturday is Tommy Gant at about minus 200 going out against Artur Minev.”
Tommy Gantt defeated Artur Minev via 2nd-round TKO (ground and pound) at UFC Vegas 117. (Gantt def. Minev, TKO, Round 2, 2:51)
“fighter here yeah that prado fight as well uh veritanikov actually got taken down more times than takedowns he landed prado landed three and prado had like 67 of the control time and that fight is like 30 pounds lighter than him not if you're if you're not gonna take if you're not gonna take down and control chaos williams or at least be fast enough like a randy brown to dance on the outside of the octagon and kind of chip away at him, he's going to land clean at some point and he's going to hurt you. So I'll take Chaos Williams with you as well.”
Khaos (Kaelin) Williams defeated Nikolay Veretennikov via 1st-round TKO at UFC Vegas 117. (Williams def. Veretennikov, TKO, Round 1, 3:31)
“The number 12 incredible though is my top selection. I make him about seven to two in terms of his fair odds. You can get five to one on the morning line.”
Napoleon Solo won the 2026 (151st) Preakness Stakes at Laurel Park; #12 Incredible did not win.
“[27:05] I also show value on his knockout prop. [27:08] I make his knockout prop closer to plus 225, [27:12] and you can get it around plus 275. [27:16] Grant Dawson been knocked out several times now [27:18] and quite badly, I believe knocked out in his last fight. [27:21] Rambetsky always live to hurt his opponents early, [27:24] and he very tough to grapple early He tends to get beat up the longer his fights go He very game and his heart will stay in the fight the longer his fights go But he actually tends to be more grapple the longer his fights go [27:38] And I think that's where Dawson can have success. [27:41] Dawson also great at getting the body triangle on opponents, [27:43] holding that position, landing some good ground and pound. [27:47] But on the feet, Dawson's going to be in real danger here early. [27:50] I like Rombechke and Rombechke by KO.”
Mateusz Rebecki lost to Grant Dawson by 3rd-round rear-naked-choke submission at UFC 328; no KO win.
“Fight that I really like, Jeremy Stevens, at about plus 310 going up against King Green, north of minus 400. I like this fight to envy a finish, but I like the Jeremy Stevens side of it as well.”
King Green (Bobby Green) submitted Jeremy Stephens via rear-naked choke at 4:20 of Round 1 at UFC 328.
“Volkov over half a takedown is about minus 115. So I'm going to be playing that.”
Volkov won a striking-only unanimous decision over Cortes-Acosta at UFC 328 with no takedowns recorded, so over 0.5 takedowns lost.
“And that William Gomis at around plus 160 against Pat Sabatini Gomis is a very public underdog this weekend He has moved from around plus 200 to plus 160 There has been action on him. But Sabatini, I mean, he's very similar to the Grant Dawson analysis, probably either going to get the back take, hold position for extended stretches, finish the fight, or going to eat a one-two on the feet and die. So laying juice on a guy at minus 200 in a scenario like that does make you a little uncomfortable. But I do think given how much public action is on Gomez this weekend, it is the side that I have to back. I make Sabatini closer to minus 250 here.”
Pat Sabatini defeated William Gomis via unanimous decision (30-27 x3) at UFC 328.
“in our best and final bets section jose ochoa the first fight of the card minus 180 against clayton carpenter continuing the streak of many striker versus grappler bouts on this card i think ochoa can get taken down here but i think he'll do enough to eventually work his way back up and land much better damage than Clayton Carpenter will. I think Ochoa better physicality and more suitable for this level. Haven't necessarily been impressed by what I've seen so far from Clayton Carpenter in the UFC. I make Ochoa closer to minus 200. He's listed around minus 180. Again, another fight I hope to get a little bit better of a price on, but I'd be comfortable betting that up to minus 180. Small, definitely more of a final bet for me.”
Jose Ochoa defeated Clayton Carpenter via unanimous decision (30-27 x3) at UFC 328.
“Cameron Roustin, the battle draft, minus 185, going up against Robert Berchek at plus 155 in the middleweight division. I'm taking Berchek here, at least pre-fight. I make him a small favorite, and he's listed around plus 150, as I said. I'd probably take him down to about plus 110 pre-fight.”
Cam Rowston defeated Robert Bryczek by unanimous decision (30-27 x3) at UFC Fight Night Perth. (Rowston wins by unanimous decision)
“the youth is certainly projecting some upside there, but I think we may look back on this line a year from now, two years from now, and be like, oh my God, we got this guy fighting for a title at minus 130 against Shamil Gaziev. So yeah, former volleyball player, Shamil Gaziev. So give me Brando Perichich over Shamil. I make him about minus 155. So not a humongous edge, but one of a couple of bets that I do like for this week,”
Brando Pericic defeated Shamil Gaziev by KO at 3:44 of round 2 at UFC Fight Night Perth. (Pericic wins by KO, round 2 at 3:44)
“So give me Chief Wallaby to etch his name in history at 8-1. Again, I make him 4-1. I would probably bet him straight down to 5-1.”
Chief Wallaby finished 4th in the 2026 Kentucky Derby; Golden Tempo (23-1) won.
“The top model selections for Saturday, I've got three more. The Pat Day Mile race eight, the number six crude velocity. I think that's my biggest edge on the weekend. Make him about even money for Bob Baffert, five to two on the morning line. I think that'll get that down closer to even money.”
Crude Velocity (Baffert) won the 2026 Pat Day Mile by 3 3/4 lengths in a stakes-record 1:33.87.
“So I do make him a slight favorite in this matchup. I make him about minus 108. I would bet him at plus 105 or better. Will not be a big bet for me because Zalal is the younger man. And I would look to bet Zalal live. But I think you may get a better price on Zalal live after round two or maybe even live after round three with the fight either 1-1 or 2-1 in favor of Sterling. So Sterling pre-fight is the side for me.”
Aljamain Sterling defeated Youssef Zalal by unanimous decision (49-45 x3) at UFC Vegas 116. (Sterling wins by unanimous decision, all judges 49-45)
“but Edwards plus three and a half at minus 160 on the point spread.”
Edwards won a three-round unanimous decision, so her +3.5 point spread cashed.
“Let's move on to a fight where we both have plus money bets on. That's Jafa Garcia going up against Alexander Hernandez. not Fluffy Hernandez. Alexander the Great Hernandez. This is in the lightweight division. Garcia about plus 110 to plus 105. Billy likes him as an underdog selection this week. I like this fight to end inside the distance. Maybe a little bit of a contrarian play because Garcia is relatively durable. Typically, Hernandez often does go to a decision, but Hernandez's archetype is typically more as an early finisher, and I'm sure Billy will get into this. When he doesn't get that early finish, he does tend to slow down, if not gas out in the back half of his fight. So I think there's a path for a Hernandez round one finish. I think there's a path for a Garcia round three finish. We'll see what ends up happening in the middle, but I make it closer to plus 120 this fight to end inside distance, minus 120 for it to go to a decision. You can get plus 150 on the fight to end by KO or submission to end inside the distance. That's where my money's going for this fight.”
Rafa Garcia defeated Alexander Hernandez by unanimous decision; the fight did not end inside the distance.
“Let's move on to our top props section for this week. I already talked about the Hernandez Garcia ends inside the distance prop at plus 150. I'm going to give out another ends ITD prop, and that is Eric McConico going against Hidalfo Vieira. This fight is about minus 130 to end inside the distance. I make it closer to minus 150. Wouldn't say it's a binary striker versus grappler fight, because I do think Vieira can strike a little. I think Meconico can grapple a little. But I do think this one very likely ends Meconico via KO with Vieira coming off of an awful, awful knockout against Bo Nickel, where he also took a pretty bad beating before that even happened, or Vieira via sub. I think Vieira can get this fight to the ground.”
Eric McConico defeated Hidalfo Vieira by unanimous decision; the fight did not end inside the distance.
“Let's move on to a prop that we both like this week. Long shot prop. That's Talita Alencar to get the submission against Julia Pallastri. About 1,100 on the number on her to win by submission.”
Talita Alencar beat Julia Polastri by unanimous decision, not by submission.
“This is set up for a highlight reel KO for Francis Marshall. His submission prop is cheaper, or his submission prop is closer to even than his money line. I think his submission prop is around two to one. His KO prop is about four to one. I would flip those. If anything, I would reallocate almost all of the finish equity to his KO prop. I don't think he's going to want to mess around with Brennan in the grappling. I think he keeps this one standing and finds the KO. Very well-trained fighter. I believe still at American top team in South Florida. So Francis Marshall to get the knockout at about plus 420. Maybe my favorite prop for this week.”
Francis Marshall beat Lucas Brennan by unanimous decision (30-27 x3), not by KO.
“So the round one prop Billy's on, I'm on Bouchesha small at about minus 140, and I'd be looking to add live.”
Ryan Spann defeated Marcus Buchecha via 2nd-round knockout at UFC Vegas 116. (Spann wins by KO, round 2 at 2:10)
“And with that, we're going to turn to our best and final bets section, one that we're in agreement on here, which is more of a final bet for me, one that is an actual best bet for me. That's Montel Jackson at about minus 175, going up against podcast favorite Raoni Barcelos this weekend. I bet Houni a ton throughout his career. I know you like him as well as a fighter, just always been underrated, super well-rounded. But Jackson is the much bigger man, eight-inch reach advantage, three inches taller, five years younger. And we are at this stage of his career just seeing Houni get hurt in every single fight. Wobbled, knocked down, tends to survive. Jackson, though, too, you know, talking about luck ratings and things that are likely to improve and be repeatable or not repeatable in your favor. I think Johnson, I think Jackson has, I believe, 13 knockdowns in the UFC and has only finished four of those fights. So Jackson tends to hurt his opponent in every fight. Barcellos tends to get hurt in every fight. Barcellos is the better grappler. We saw Jackson get out grappled by Davis and Figueredo. But I actually think this is an easier matchup just given the age of Barcelos and the durability of Barcelos relative to Figge. Figge is very tough to hurt. Barcelos, I think, is very much there to be hurt. And Jackson is the type of guy to hurt him. The reach disadvantage is so significant. Eight inches is enormous. Eight inches is enormous for anybody, for anything, right? Like just anything in general. Eight inches is humongous. but also when you're talking about reach, it is a big differential. So Jackson, I make him about minus 200 in this fight. He's listed at minus 170. I would take him up to about minus 190.”
Raoni Barcelos defeated Montel Jackson by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) at UFC Vegas 116. (Barcelos wins by split decision)
“Final bet that we're going to touch on in the regular part of the show. We'll still touch on the two fights that we didn't get to as of yet. Victor Valenzuela at about minus 145 going up against Max Payne Griffin at plus 125. Valenzuela, eight years younger. Griffin, we've seen just kind of slowing down later in his career. Cardio is not lasting deep into the fight. Valenzuela, I said, the much younger man here. I'd expect him to be able to sustain deeper into the fight. And I actually think he may be one of the first guys to knock Griffin out. I'm not sure if Griffin has been knocked out in the past, but I do think it is coming at some point as he nears the end of his career. I show Valenzuela value on the money line,”
Victor Valenzuela defeated Max Griffin by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) at UFC Vegas 116. (Valenzuela wins by unanimous decision)
“I'm going to J.J. Aldrich at about plus 130 against Jamie Lynn Horth in the women's flyweight division.”
J.J. Aldrich defeated Jamey-Lyn Horth by unanimous decision (29-28 x3) — Aldrich's moneyline won. (Aldrich def. Horth, unanimous decision)
“I don't think so. That's the option he's got left. Going back to the Gage Young against Tiago Moises fight. Both of us like Gage Young in this matchup. Moneyline is on the move a little bit, getting out towards minus 140 to minus 150 now, but I make Young close to minus 215. in my model. Big edge on the money line. I also like his KO prop, as I alluded to before as well, at around plus 300. So Gage Young on the money line, Gage Young by KO at plus 300, and then the fight to end by inside the distance at around plus 115. My three bats here”
Gage Young defeated Thiago Moisés by split decision, so the fight did not end inside the distance. (Young def. Moisés, split decision)
“So Gokhan Saricam, not Gokhan Saki, Gokhan Saricam. Yeah, I wish it was Gokhan Saki.”
Gokhan Saracam stopped Tanner Boser via TKO (punches) at 4:43 of round 2, winning inside the distance.
“He will potentially be looking to grapple a little bit and mix it up in this fight.”
Gokhan Saracam stopped Tanner Boser via TKO (punches) at 4:43 of round 2, so the fight ended inside the distance.
“He's still 34. He's not 39. So on the wrong side of the age curve for Bantamweight, I still think this guy is a much better fighter than Mark Velogdon. I make Castaneda about minus 170. I would bet him up to around minus 160. also show value either on his decision or KO props and not probably going to choose between them. I think I'll just lay the juice on his money line and currently around minus 125.”
John Castaneda and Mark Vologdin fought to a majority draw (29-27, 28-28, 28-28) — moneyline bets push on a draw. (Castaneda vs. Vologdin, majority draw)
“I don't think so. That's the option he's got left. Going back to the Gage Young against Tiago Moises fight. Both of us like Gage Young in this matchup. Moneyline is on the move a little bit, getting out towards minus 140 to minus 150 now, but I make Young close to minus 215. in my model. Big edge on the money line. I also like his KO prop, as I alluded to before as well, at around plus 300. So Gage Young on the money line, Gage Young by KO at plus 300, and then the fight to end by inside the distance at around plus 115. My three bats here”
Gage Young defeated Thiago Moisés by split decision — Young's moneyline won. (Young def. Moisés, split decision)
“I also like his KO prop, as I alluded to before as well, at around plus 300. So Gage Young on the money line, Gage Young by KO at plus 300, and then the fight to end by inside the distance at around plus 115.”
Gage Young won by split decision over Tiago Moises, not by KO.
“I've got a few props, including a couple in the main event, and then another two beyond that. Billy's got three props that he's eyeing himself. I'll go right back to the main event and Carlos Oberg against Yuri Prochka. I did mention that I like the Oberg side of that fight. Oberg by KO is plus 195. I make that closer to about plus 140. So I think that's fine. Down to about plus 160.”
Carlos Ulberg beat Jiri Prochazka by KO in Round 1 at UFC 327.
“But then also the under two and a half rounds there as well at about minus 120.”
Ulberg vs. Prochazka ended by KO at 3:45 of Round 1 — well under the 2.5-round total. (Fight ended in Round 1 (3:45))
“So I might prefer whoever was plus money in this fight. It just happens to be Hokit. I am surprised though, considering the amount of support I have seen for Hokit, that so many people are picking Blades this week. This is another fight where underdog is plus 122. I look at the public sources where people make picks that I am aggregating from. Blades is getting picked at about a 70% clip to win this fight. My technical model made Hokit closer to 45%, which is right in line with the betting market. But in terms of sharp bets that I'm pulling in, the allocated bets from people who are profitable, I go on BetMMA tips. You can see the information I referring to but I actually pulling all of that data in and weighting it against the pick percentages in the market and the majority of the sharp money at least on better than my tips on the Hokit side where the preponderance of picks on public betting sites or public pick sites are on blades. So my model, the market model makes Hokit a minus 115 favorite here. Happy to bet him at any plus money price.”
Josh Hokit defeated Curtis Blaydes by unanimous decision at UFC 327. (Hokit def. Blaydes by unanimous decision)
“Let's move on to an underdog we have agreement on. That Cub Swanson in his likely retirement fight I believe it is his official retirement fight Yeah Going up against Nate the Train Landwehr This is a very pro Nate the Train podcast and we both picking against Nate Landwehr this week Cub at even money. I make him about minus 140. Getting him at even money is a nice square number, but I also like his knockout prop as well at about 3-1. I make that closer to 2-1. Better striker by the numbers. Nate the Train also, the physicality worsening, the speed slowing. We haven't seen Cub in the cage since late 2024 when he ended up finishing Billy Q in round three. So there is a potential in his 40s that he has just dropped off of a cliff massively in the past year. But the last time we saw Nate Landwehr, it looked like he had taken a big step back physically as well. So going to take the old guy, Cub Swanson, five years older than Nate the Train. but I do like him at about minus 120 or better pre-fight against Nate Landwehr.”
Cub Swanson defeated Nate Landwehr by TKO (strikes) at 4:06 of Round 1 at UFC 327. (Swanson def. Landwehr by TKO, R1 4:06)
“Lupita Godinez at about plus 130 going up against Tatiana Suarez in the women's strawweight division. Godinez, three years younger. Tatiana, three inches taller, a five-inch reach advantage. But Lupi's the better boxer. The question is whether she's able to not outmuscle Tatiana, but not get outmuscled by Tatiana and keep the fight on the feet. If she can, I think she'll win the striking. I think she actually has a chance to win the fight via KO. We've seen Suarez reach her championship bout, kind of the pinnacle of her run, and just showed that she's passed where she was physically, given all the injuries throughout her career. Godina is maybe still upside left within her career trajectory. I do make this fight right around a coin flip, getting her a Plus 133, I think is fine.”
Tatiana Suarez submitted Loopy (Lupita) Godinez via rear-naked choke at 2:29 of Round 2 at UFC 327. (Suarez def. Godinez by submission, R2 2:29)
“My best bet for this weekend's card is an underdog at plus 150. [53:31] That's MarQuel Mederos going up against Chris Taco Padilla,”
Chris Padilla was originally announced the winner by majority decision, but the result was corrected roughly an hour later to an official majority draw (28-28, 28-28, 29-27) after a scoring/reporting error; a two-way moneyline on a draw settles as a push. (Official result: Padilla-Mederos majority draw)
“My best bet for this weekend's card is an underdog at plus 150. That's MarQuel Mederos going up against Chris Taco Padilla, who I believe people would not like nearly as much if he did not have the nickname Taco. If he was just Chris Padilla, people would not be excited about this guy. You throw Taco in there. People absolutely love him. It does have a 500-reach advantage. But beyond that, I think this is going to be an extremely competitive fight. Medeiros, for me, is the more technical striker of the two. Really like the low kicks that he throws out there. He fights with his hands low. I think that should help his takedown defense as well. Will eat some damage as a result. But I just think Taco is kind of sun run a little bit thus far in the UFC. Handicapping this one out. Everybody's picking him this week. nearly 80% of picks in a fight where he's closer to 60 to 65% implied. So I actually make Medeiros right around to pick him in this matchup. I would take him at any plus money price. And then I also like the fight to end inside the distance as well. I make that closer to minus 130 or I believe minus 130 or plus 130. And they're giving you as high as plus 150. Forgot where I set the number specifically it was meant to be in the top prop section and then of course i ended up scrolling past that yeah this fight is about minus i make it about minus 140 to go to a decision so plus 138 to end inside the distance and they giving you around plus 160 plus 150 on this fight to finish so i would combine madero said about plus 150 with the fight to finish at around plus 150 bigger bet on the money line and look to avoid padilla winning by decision billy do you have any thoughts on that”
Chris Padilla and Markus Medeiros fought to an official majority draw after the result was corrected, so the fight went to decision and the inside-distance wager lost. (Official result: Padilla-Medeiros majority draw)
“foot octagon you see on the traveling shows the main event Chris Duncan at about minus 170 going up against Hinato Money Moicano at around plus 150 five round lightweight fight I believe Duncan's first ever main event moicano's third career five round fight though only one of those went all 25 minutes and it was one that he took on just four days notice against jaffael dos anjos we'll get to that fight or discuss that as part of the analysis in a moment but billy and i are aligned here on the underdog moicano with plus 150 at least from a pre-fight perspective i have seen a lot of takes discussing betting duncan live at some point during the fight i think that is certainly an entry point you can take. I'm just not as confident, I guess, as others that he has such a distinct cardio advantage over Moicano. Again, Moicano went five rounds, all 25 minutes with RDA on just four days notice We seen a lot of toughness from him when fighters aren able to just put him straight out And in my opinion we will see if it plays out I don think Duncan necessarily has the wrestling to do what he wants to dictate where this fight takes place So if this is going to play out as a striking fight, it is actually Moicano who has the more efficient striking stats and against better competition. If this is going to go to the grappling, though Duncan does have the better control rate by the numbers, it is Moicano for me who is likelier to get the position and potentially the control time. He's the better back taker of the pair, Duncan, and the better rear naked choke of the pair. Duncan has the front chokes on lock, the guillotine, the anaconda. He's going for more of the resistance type of grappling resistance type of chokes where Moicano is looking to progress to the positions he wants and finish the fight. So just the four-year age gap between the pair, it's not like Duncan has some huge youth advantage. Moicano is an inch taller, has the one-inch reach advantage. and what I find really interesting here Billy and I'm curious if you have this take as well um I feel like since Duncan won his contender series fight his first contender series fight he was knocked out by Slavikos his second contender series fight got nearly knocked out almost immediately by Charlie Campbell popped back up like the undertaker knocked Charlie Campbell out and I almost feel like since that knockout people had been trying to fade Duncan catch a falling knife. He kept finishing opponents, kept winning as a big underdog, eventually did lose a fight, but then got right back on his winning streak. Do you feel like people have mostly been trying to fake Chris Duncan for the majority of his progression up the ladder in the UFC? And now he's arrived at his first main event, and it really feels like this is one of the first times where he's a clear favorite on the money line at minus 170. So the recency bias, I feel like, or the adjustment in the line feels a little bit improper, but also I don't share a lot of the concerns that I would normally have for Moicano fights with some big power puncher going against him. I think this is going to play out as a close and competitive fight. And I think Moicano is definitely in there well enough early to potentially move his line down closer to even money and allow you a live entry point on Duncan. And so a long way of saying we're both on the underdog in this fight.”
Renato Moicano submitted Chris Duncan via rear-naked choke in round 2 in the UFC Vegas 115 main event. (Moicano def. Duncan, submission R2)
“With that, we are going to move on to our best and final bets. for this weekend's card. And I'm going to go back to the fight between Tabitha Ricci and Verna Jandahoba. This is my best bet. This is my biggest edge on these weekend's card. I make Ricci about the same price, as I said, that I make Melissa Gatto, both around minus 140. I think betting either up to about minus 125 is probably fine. And you're getting either at around plus 105 to plus 110. Ricci should be able to defend the takedowns. And if she is taken down, I think she will do everything she can to get back to her feet. And she will land the more damaging strikes of the pair. Just a reminder, Virna is six years older. And I think especially in the third round, we've seen Virna slow down in other fights. She is going to slow down in this one if Ricci's still there. So Ricci pre-fight, absolutely. Ricci live maybe midway through round two. After round two, after round one, somewhere in there. I think you're going to see Ricci take over on momentum and start to pull away. So maybe after an early takedown from Verna, maybe after round one, that Verna potentially controls, I'd expect Ricci to come on and to take over this fight. Also show an edge on her decision prop as well but the money line is plenty fine at plus 110”
Virna Jandiroba defeated Tabatha Ricci by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) in the UFC Vegas 115 co-main event. (Jandiroba def. Ricci, unanimous decision)
“We could move to our favorite underdogs and stay in the women's divisions, but move to women's flyweight for Melissa Gatto against Yanan Barbosa. This fight is around minus 220 to go to a decision. I'm taking the underdog here as well. Galgado has been off for a few years, but she is four years younger. She has a three-inch reach advantage, has the better striking stats by the numbers, also finished all of her UFC wins, and her close, her two losses in the UFC. One was a split, another was a close decision loss, both to good fighters, Tracy Burtes and Arianna Lipschke. I actually made Galgado a favorite in this fight after accounting for all of the market aspects that I incorporate into my model, just handicapping the market specifically. so I would bet Gatto probably to about minus 110 minus 120 but you're getting around the same price as Ricci right now close to plus 110 around plus 108”
Dione Barbosa defeated Melissa Gatto by majority decision (28-28, 29-27, 29-27) at UFC Vegas 115. (Barbosa def. Gatto, majority decision)
“Another striker versus grappler matcher, potentially Ethan Ewing against Rafael Estevam in the bantamweight division. I like Estevam as the underdog here. I make this also close to a pick-em fight, so getting plus 125 is fine down to about plus 115.”
Ethan Ewing defeated Rafael Estevam by KO (body shot) in round 3 (1:44) at UFC Vegas 115. (Ewing def. Estevam, KO R3 1:44)
“The first of which for me is right back to that Ethan Ewing, Rafael Estevam fight. I like the fight to go to a decision at about minus 200. Talked about Estevam moving up in weight, Ewing moving down in weight. My main concern on a finish was Estevam tiring out and getting himself finished in a high-paced fight late. I think he should be able to handle the 15 minutes a little bit better without sucking himself dry to cut down to 125. So as a result, the fight to go to a decision at about minus 165 in addition to the Estevam side of the money line.”
Ethan Ewing defeated Rafael Estevam by KO (body shot) in round 3 (1:44) at UFC Vegas 115, so the fight did not go to decision. (Ewing def. Estevam, KO R3 1:44)
“Let move on to our favorite underdog section for this week We got a number that are going to bleed into the prop section as well but we do have one consensus underdog that we get to before we get there but let start with a couple that i like that lance gibson jr at about plus 260 against chase hooper very interesting matchup here because gibson is the better wrestler hooper the better grappler”
Lance Gibson Jr. defeated Chase Hooper by TKO (elbow/knees) at 2:56 of Round 1. (Gibson Jr. def. Hooper, TKO R1 2:56)
“Yanez on the money line at plus 130,”
Adrian Yanez vs. Ricky Simon was ruled a Majority Draw (28-28, 28-28, 29-28) — moneyline bet pushes on a draw. (Majority draw)
“So I like this one to go all 15 minutes, as I said. Yanez on the money line at plus 130, and his decision number at plus 340. I make that closer to plus 200.”
Adrian Yanez vs Ricky Simon ended in a majority draw, so Yanez did not win by decision.
“and giving the right-handed fighters different looks than they're typically accustomed to. So a lot going for Julian Erosa in this matchup, including the price, which is nearly three to one. The difference in age is about six years. That is the main concern for me. Douglas, just the younger, more durable athlete. But I do show value both on Arosa. I make his money line about plus 185. So plus 295, certainly a bet down to about plus 200.”
Julian Erosa lost by KO (strikes) at 3:33 of Round 1 to Lerryan Douglas, so the Erosa moneyline lost. (Douglas def. Erosa, KO/strikes R1 3:33)
“Chiesa's the older man, the much better grappler here. Averages five takedown attempts for five minutes, has completed nearly half of them in his career. And Price has given up half of the takedown attempts against him. So you should see a pretty obvious path for Michael Chiesa to be able to get to the wrestling. The question is whether he's able to get to the back and finish the fight. I do like him to do so. I make his inside the distance odds about minus 180. You can bet him at minus 150.”
Michael Chiesa submitted Niko Price at 1:03 of Round 1, winning inside the distance.
“We do have a consensus. It's a final bet for me. It may be a best bet for Billy. but a Moneyline favorite edge on Tyrell Fortune at about minus 135 going against Marcin Tybura. Tybura, in my model, an extremely popular underdog selection this week. Everybody is familiar with Marcin Tybura. Everybody's probably won a bet on Marcin Tybura at plus money at some point, but he is 40 years old now. I didn't think he looked very good in his recent fights either. he typically tends to survive he tends to play RoboDope with opponents now at this point of his career he just gets beat up in the first round and if he's able to survive after 5 minutes he leans on opponents, grapples them a little bit and he's able to take over fortune is short notice here I'm not fully sure about what his gas tank looks like but I do think given the speed advantage the athleticism advantage and just how decrepit Tybura's physicality looks especially in the first five minutes of his fight at this point of his career. I think Fortune likely finishes him rather quickly, but happy to take the money line at minus 135”
Tyrell Fortune defeated Marcin Tybura by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28). (Fortune def. Tybura, UD)
“But Michael Venom Page, minus 192 against Sam Patterson, sitting closer to plus 160. Fight around plus 130 to go to a decision. Patterson, nine years younger and clearly the better rapper. But what I like most about this matchup is he's essentially the same size as MVP. MVP typically smoother, quicker, better footwork than a lot of the guys at Weltherweight, but also taller, longer, lankier. He doesn't have those advantages over Sam Patterson. And I think Patterson is able to get this fight to the ground with his long limbs, with his elite grappling. He's going to pose a real problem for MVP, who we have seen grappled in the past. I don't think his takedown defense, I don't think his overall defensive grappling has made massive strides in his late 30s. I think he's just shown that he is better at it than people thought he was. But I do think Patterson is the type of fighter who's going to put it to the test. And getting the guy with full grappling upside of plus money, who I think can end the fight via submission, Certainly a position that I want to back here. I make Patterson about plus 125. I take his money line down to about plus 135. And then I also kind of align with his submission prop as well. I make it about plus 450. That's roughly where the market is. Probably a bet I'll consider poking as well. But Patterson on the money line, one of my favorite bets this week, and certainly my favorite underdog on this card.”
Michael Page defeated Sam Patterson by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) at UFC Fight Night London. (MVP def. Patterson, UD)
“That's Louie Sutherland. at about plus 210 against Brando Pericic at minus 265.”
Brando Pericic defeated Louie Sutherland by TKO (punches) at 1:48 of Round 1. (Pericic def. Sutherland, TKO R1 1:48)
“Line has moved in a little bit on Sutherland but I make him closer to plus 185 I would bet him down at about two to one or better I also like the over the over one and a half in this fight or the goes to decision as well I think we could see a bunch of clinching up against the fence here, and at minimum, I like Sutherland to extend things, get out of round one, and then potentially win a sloppy decision against the bigger man, Pericic, two inches taller, a three-inch reach advantage, but Sutherland is absolutely jacked. I'm hoping he could get some cage push and win a gross decision against Brando Chericic. So my bets here, Sutherland at two to one or better in the over one and a half, I believe is plus money as well.”
Fight ended by TKO at 1:48 of Round 1 (Pericic over Sutherland) — total fight length was under 1.5 rounds. (Ended R1 1:48)
“DraftKings to post their line Christian Leroy Duncan is about minus 500 against Roman the leads middleweight bout here. We both like this fight to end inside the distance. I specifically, though, I'm taking CLD inside the distance. I make that prop around even money. You can bet it at plus 110. I also lean towards his knockout prop as well, but would rather have the inside the distance given the limited price discrepancy.”
Christian Leroy Duncan won by unanimous decision (went the distance), so he did not win inside the distance.
“It's just the two athletes. Jones live after round one, a target for you as well? Not blindly. I'd have to see how it's going. But if he got hit a little bit but then finished the round by getting to a closer position or getting some grappling going, then yes. I don't think it's like a cardio issue so much. It's just who did what, how the fights play now. Just to reiterate, I like the ghost of the decision on that bout. Not huge. It's listed about minus 160. I make it closer to minus 180.”
Mason Jones beat Axel Sola by unanimous decision, so the fight went to a decision.
“And Kurtis Campbell at minus 230 against Danny Silva. Campbell, the pink panther UFC, gave him some custom shorts for his UFC debut. Looks like a very talented striker. Muay Thai base. Silva we saw go three competitive rounds, though, with Kevin Ablajos, who just knocked out Josh Emmett in his main event debut last week. So it does seem like the line could be getting a little bit wide here on Silva, north of 2-1. I do make it about minus 220. So I'm roughly in line with the market. I'm probably going to end up passing. But I do make the ghost of the decision north of 2-1, and you can get minus 160. So that'd be my bet on this fight, Bill.”
Danny Silva finished Kurtis Campbell by TKO in round 2, so the fight did not go to a decision.
“And as a result, my model makes Carolina closer to minus 200. And you can get her at around minus 130. So she the best bet for me this weekend First fight on the card yet again I don love making the first fight on the card the best bet It was not the most fun sweating Pierre Rodriguez to start my night last week”
Bout was scrapped by the commission after Luana Carolina missed weight by 8 pounds; the fight never took place. (Fight cancelled (weight miss))
“I'm taking another shot, though, against the British fighter in my final bet as well. That's with Lo Sanketa at minus 230 against Nathaniel Wood at plus 200. Wood's a great fighter, but he's been in a number of fights where he gets hurt that have not finished. He's been knocked down in several of his fights. He's also knocked down several of his opponents without finishing them as well. He's extremely new to have one of his fights end inside the distance. Kate is an interesting case because he was supposed to fight Patricio Pitbull in his UFC debut. Ended up coming in five pounds overweight. They ended up canceling that bout. He's the former Octagon FC champion over in Czech Republic. He's bigger than Nathaniel Wood. Wood's a former Vantamweight, but he's an inch taller. Has a three-inch reach advantage. Not really sure how this weight cut is going to go since it didn't go well the first time. But if it does go okay, I think he's going to hurt Wood, and I think he's going to finish him. I make the line for Keita about minus 275. You can bet him at minus 230. There's certainly an edge there. And then I make his knockout prop about plus 170 and his inside the distance line about plus 140. I don't think there's necessarily edges or big edges on those numbers. I think I'm pretty closely aligned with the market on the finish props, but I do like him as a bet this weekend up to about minus 250 on the money line.”
Nathaniel Wood defeated Losene Keita (the fighter referred to as "Lo Sanketa") by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28). (Wood def. Keita, split decision)
“People know who Josh Emmett is. They've seen him in four or five UFC made events now. This is the first UFC made event for Kevin Vallejo's first time he'll go five rounds potentially or 25 minutes in his professional career now both of these guys are super durable to head strikes but the ends by knockout is the favored winning method for this fight and that is where I project value in this bout I make that line about minus 165 you can get as low as minus 125 at DraftKings I believe they did have the best price for this prop. The alternative bet is Vallejos by knockout. I make that minus 109. You can get around plus 110. Just the slightly bigger edge on the ends by KO. It was like a six and a half percentage versus a four and a half percentage. I'm fine with either of those bets, depending on the pricing or depending what you have access to. As I said, both guys super durable to head strikes, but Emmett has taken a ton of damage in his last two five-round fights, got submitted quickly in his last fight by Yusuf Salal. Is in his 40s, I think, has certainly slowed down, the physicality waning. And I think at some point he is going to get dropped by shots, but still carries some of the most significant power of the division and could absolutely hurt Vallejos himself. So ends by KO. My bet for this fight, not a significant bet by any means, but it was the most value that I found in the market.”
Independent verification agrees: Kevin Vallejos beat Josh Emmett by TKO in Round 1 (3:33), so the fight ended by KO/TKO.
“I'm on the dog Lemos at about plus 170. [12:40] I make her closer to plus 140.”
Independent verification agrees: Gillian Robertson beat Amanda Lemos by unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 114 (Mar 14); Lemos ML lost.
“that kind of gives me the push towards a ends prop as opposed to a KO prop We get there in a few moments But first our consensus favorite underdog from a fight we head on to a fight where we in complete lockstep on Bruno Silva at plus 150 against Charles Johnson at minus 175. Johnson, five inches taller, five-inch reach advantage. But coming off of his first career KO loss just five weeks ago, taking this bout on relatively short notice. He's also losing his fight before that was losing to Loner Kavanaugh before knocking him out. He was a huge underdog after the first round, a unanimous first round for Loner. And if he didn't get that KO, I don't think he'd be favored here. He'd be entering on a three-fight losing streak, again, five weeks off of a KO loss against a fighter who is the same age as him. That was probably the most shocking part of the breakdown for me, Billy. I would have assumed that Silva's like five years older than Charles Johnson. They're within six months of each other, I believe, in terms of age. Silva, the better grappler. We saw him win his last fight via submission. Very impressive win. But I think the grappling upside, in addition to the power strikes that could potentially hurt a compromised Johnson, are all there for Bruno Silva. I like two plus money. That's on this fight. Silva, plus 151 or plus 150. I make him plus 115. So down to about plus 125.”
Independent verification agrees: Charles Johnson beat Bruno Silva by split decision at UFC Vegas 114; Silva ML lost.
“And then the fight ends inside the distance. [18:51] I make minus 126. [18:53] You can get plus 118 if you shop around.”
Independent verification agrees: Charles Johnson beat Bruno Silva by split decision, so the fight went the distance.
“Move on to another underdog that I potentially like for this weekend. I'm curious if I can get Billy on board for this one. I think the line is certainly wide between Bellagio, Oki, and Manuel Sosa. Sosa about minus 270, Oki. I got it plus 240. It's a lightweight bout. It is juiced to end inside the distance. uh i make oki about plus 170 so i take him to roughly plus 200 or better”
Independent verification agrees: Event listed as 'Bellagio Oki vs. Manuel Sosa' — actual UFC Vegas 114 bout was Bolaji Oki vs. debuting Manoel Sousa. Sousa finished Oki (earning a $100K bonus), so the Oki ML pick lost.
“I'm curious if I can get Billy on board for this one. I think the line is certainly wide between Bellagio, Oki, and Manuel Sosa. Sosa about minus 270, Oki. I got it plus 240. It's a lightweight bout. It is juiced to end inside the distance. uh i make oki about plus 170 so i take him to roughly plus 200 or better but i also like the ends inside the distance here too i make that closer to minus 200 and i took minus 165 Sosa coming off of Contender Series looked good and powerful in that matchup”
Independent verification agrees: Manoel Sousa KO'd Bolaji Oki in round 3 (4:12), so the fight ended inside the distance.
“Spillian fight doesn't start round three at minus 125. I'm on the ends inside the distance for Ruhiki at plus money, even money. I make that about minus 110.”
Independent verification agrees: Marwan Rahiki beat Harry Hardwick by TKO (corner stoppage) in round 2, an inside-the-distance win.
“loses. That's just what's happened. Umar C about minus 250 against Ian Kudalaba around plus 200. C is three inches taller, has an eight-inch reach advantage. He's two years younger. I thought the age gap would be a little bit bigger. C is around 30, I believe. So, you know, in terms of prospect development, probably nearer to a finished product than he is on the development track. I haven't been ultra impressed by what I've seen from him, and Kudalaba is a guy I've typically bet throughout his career. But I do think in the grappling Kudalaba is likely covered here Siege is the bigger man but also probably the better grappler as well Even though Kudalaba comes from a Sambo background as a pretty decorated career I just think Siege's athleticism and physicality is going to end up winning the fight. He has controlled 99% of his grappling time in the UFC. Kudalaba just 54%, obviously, difference in the amount of time they've fought, the relative opponents they've fought. But I do think that is relatively likely the way the fight goes down. I do project value on C as a parlay piece as well. I just, his path to winning rounds, winning, covering his line, I feel like is relatively limited. Value on goes to decision for him, to win by decision, I should say. I actually prefer C in the over one and a half rounds at plus 136. I think that's his best win condition.”
Independent verification agrees: Ion Cutelaba submitted Oumar Sy (mislabeled Umar Sei/Kudalaba) by guillotine at 4:21 of round 1, under 1.5 rounds.
“Let's move on to Mirtebek Oralbae at about minus 275 against Chris Curtis at plus 225. This should be a banger. Oralbae coming up from 155, Curtis coming down from 185, but the measurables between these two are pretty comparable. Curious how you view those respective weight moves, Billy, considering we're normally very negative on fighters moving down in weight late in their careers. And Curtis has also talked about the fact that those cuts to 170 have drained him in the past. So I don't necessarily love it. He is the better boxer here. Oroby does eat shots all day. But Curtis is 39 years old. I think he's aging out in the sport to a degree. I've enjoyed betting on many of his fights, enjoyed watching a lot of his fights and cashing him as an underdog. But I do think Oroby's pace is going to eventually wear on Curtis. I think Oroby not cutting weight is going to make him probably even more powerful. and the pace is just going to be something Curtis is not able to deal with. Or by averaging, I believe it's nine takedowns per five minutes of distance. It's, yeah, nine takedowns per five minutes of distance. So not quite that like crazy elite pace, but normally the guys who you consider reliable grapplers, it's one takedown attempt per minute. It's five takedown attempts per five minutes. He's double that. essentially 79% control rate, just 18% for Curtis. Curtis is very good takedown defense. Historically, we've started to see cracks in it though, in his recent fights. I think he's just losing the ability to explode out of them as he reaches near 40 years old. So no value on me for the money line necessarily. I do make oral buy inside the distance plus 150 though. I got as high as plus 175.”
Independent verification agrees: Myktybek Orolbai beat Chris Curtis by unanimous decision, so it did not end inside the distance.
“The bet that I did make, Petrino inside the distance, [43:52] I make that about minus 125. [43:53] I got minus 103.”
Independent verification agrees: Vitor Petrino beat Steven Asplund by unanimous decision, not inside the distance.
“So Tavares, by decision, a small bet at 2-1. [47:48] I take that down to about plus 180.”
Independent verification agrees: Eryk Anders beat Brad Tavares by unanimous decision, so Tavares did not win by decision.
“I believe I bet Mesquita to win in rounds one or two at even money. I just want to confirm my bet here. Rounds one or two at even money.”
Independent verification agrees: Bia Mesquita submitted Montse Rendon by rear-naked choke in round 1 (2:07), winning in rounds 1 or 2.
“I do make fight ends inside the distance about minus 180. [53:18] I took minus 159.”
Independent verification agrees: Hecher Sosa beat Luan Lacerda by unanimous decision, so the fight did not end inside the distance.
“but regardless of that we're both on Pierre this weekend I like her I make her like minus 240 [56:52] she's again minus 160”
Independent verification agrees: Piera Rodriguez beat Sam Hughes by unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 114; Rodriguez ML won.
“But ultimately, given the binary nature of this fight, given the fact that we haven't seen Holloway against too many high-level grapplers and also the Charles head strike durability piece also the fact frankly that he was knocked out in 99 seconds in the initial bout does lead me to believe that Max certainly has enough power to put Charles away I make this fight to end inside the distance closer to minus 290 I saw minus 225 at DraftKings, but I just want to ladder up or ladder down, I guess, from your perspective. The unders inside the distance, minus 225.”
Independent verification agrees: Holloway vs Oliveira 2 went the full five rounds (Oliveira 50-45 unanimous decision), so the inside-the-distance under lost.
“But ultimately, yes, I do agree. With John, I like Kyle by decision. I make that line closer to plus 110. I saw his high as plus 140. I also show Moneyline delta or value on Kyle as well, but not really interested in him as a parlay piece. If he wins, it's likely to be chipping away by decision and not necessarily separating to a significant degree. He also may lose round one if RDR has full gas in his tank, is able to grapple successfully in round one. I could see that happening. The money line moves in a little bit. You're able to get a better live number on Kyle after five minutes. Would certainly consider a live wager as well. But Kyle, by decision, my favorite way to bet this fight,”
Independent verification agrees: Caio Borralho ('Kaio') beat Reinier de Ridder by unanimous decision (30-27 x3), cashing the by-decision pick.
“couple of consensus underdogs maybe three consensus underdogs that we like for saturday the first of which is Brunno Ferreira at about plus 160 against gregory hobo cop rodriguez”
Independent verification agrees: Batch's event field ('Vitor Petrino vs Gregory Rodrigues') doesn't match the actual UFC 326 card; Rodrigues's real opponent was Brunno Ferreira ('Fajera'/'Fajeda' in the transcript, a phonetic mis-transcription, +130 to +170 underdog matching the quoted odds). Rodrigues finished Ferreira by first-round knockout, so the Ferreira ML underdog pick lost.
“Yeah, I got it. At a slightly better price last night than you can get tonight. By the time people are listening to this, that price might not even be there. So yeah, I'm chasing some steam here more than I'm breaking down a fight, but also silly hat. Yeah, is that plus 172? The best I see now is about plus 165. I do make this, though, closer to about plus 110 in terms of my model projection. So there's still plenty of room in terms of value, in my opinion, and the betting splits for this as well, like a 7% pick rate for Nergazai and Topology, the other source I pill from, closer to 15%. But on the betting splits that I have, he's getting 56% of my sharp money breakdown. breakdown. So Nergazai seems like a very obvious betting splits bet for me this weekend.”
Independent verification agrees: Diyar Nurgozhay ('Nurgazai') beat Rafael Tobias by unanimous decision at UFC 326; ML won.
“model value bet and a consensus dog play is Rob Font as high as plus 200 against Raul Rojas Rosas Jr Now I would imagine we both expect Billy Font to get taken down early and maybe to lose the first round at a very fair clip like 80 of the time But the longer this fight extends, probably even by the second round, as long as Font is able to show that he can scramble up from these takedowns, the nice submission attempts, I think the second round pushes much closer to 50-50, And the third round, I would outright favor Fonten. So plus 200 on a guy who I favor to win the third round, who I think is going to be 50-50 to win the second round. A bet I'm going to make all day.”
Independent verification agrees: Raul Rosas Jr. beat Rob Font by unanimous decision at UFC 326 (16 takedowns); Font ML lost.
“I think this is a fight where you could potentially wait on Jiao. If everybody's going to be betting Garbrandt, I think you could maybe bet on Jiao and get closer to minus one 50, minus one 40 on fight day. So I'm going to wait on the money line play. What I will lock in now is, is inside the distance prop. I make that closer to plus two 40. You can get as high as plus 275. I also like his KO prop as well. I think this is the spot where Cody Garbrandt finally gets finished,”
Independent verification agrees: Cody Garbrandt beat Xiao Long by unanimous decision (went the full distance) at UFC 326, so the inside-the-distance prop lost.
“enough that I'm actually picking the DR not only to win the tournament, but to win their group as well, or their pool. I make them about minus 175 in pool D and I'm a lower on Venezuela.”
7-5 — The Dominican Republic finished Pool D of the 2026 World Baseball Classic undefeated at 4-0, clinching first place by beating Venezuela 7-5 on March 11, 2026 in the pool finale.
“So I like Wes Schultz on the money line. [17:47] I make him closer to plus 165. [17:49] You can get him as high as about 225.”
Independent verification agrees: Damian Pinas TKO'd Wes Schultz in Round 1 (2:30) at UFC Mexico City; Schultz's moneyline lost.
“And Billy and I both like Zell Hoover to finish this fight. We had different methods picked out initially. Billy likes the longer submission odds. My projection was pointing towards the KO prop but I happy to just take the ITD odds I make it about minus 112 I think DraftKings was offering about plus 105 Do show parlay value on Zell Hoover”
Independent verification agrees: Daniel Zellhuber lost to Bobby Green by TKO in Round 2, so he did not win inside the distance.
“my projections though do say the over could be the player that goes to decision marshall two three round two is plus 300 round three is plus 600 um and marshall over one and a half takedowns Just minus 115. I feel like that is an absolute steal over price.”
Independent verification agrees: Marshall submitted Silva via R1 rear-naked choke at 2:29 after a single double-leg takedown, landing only 1 takedown (need 2+ for over 1.5).
“And I also like this fight to go long and to go all 15 minutes Average fight in this division goes to a decision about 45 of the time market is giving you closer to plus 150 and 40 I think it a coin flip I think it a 50 bet that they giving you plus 150 to go all 15 minutes And I think Rowe is about plus 175 in a fight where he should be a slight dog. I also think he's worth considering live after round one as well. If he gets taken down, he's able to pop back up at some point. just it's not necessarily a cardio dynamic analysis, more so a he's just a bigger dude and is going to be difficult to deal with. And once he figures out the grappling from his opponent, if he's able to get things back at range, he should win at range. So give me Phil Rowe in the fight to go to a decision, both at pretty nice plus money numbers.”
Independent verification agrees: Rowe vs LeBosnoyan went the full distance, with LeBosnoyani winning by split decision.
“We're going to take it actually from the top of the card. It's Juliana Miller going against Carly Judas. Now, this is an extremely binary fight. Judas is also the biggest favorite on the card, though. I believe she's as low as minus 750. On the higher end, she's closer to minus 900. Only has a two-inch reach advantage, but she's the much better striker here, and she showed pretty good takedown defense in her last fight. Miller is the much better grappler. She has a BJJ black belt, but she needs this fight on the ground. Just 36% striking defense on the feet. She's going to get lit up if she's not able to get takedowns. I like Judas to finish her and get it done pretty quickly. Minus 125 to win in round one and round two.”
Independent verification agrees: Carli Judice won by unanimous decision over Juliana Miller, not a Round 1 or 2 finish.
“He's as high as plus 290.”
Independent verification agrees: Yadier del Valle lost by unanimous decision to Jordan Leavitt, so no submission win.
“I also, though, like him to win in round one or round two at minus 115.”
Independent verification agrees: Yadier del Valle lost by unanimous decision to Jordan Leavitt, not a Round 1 or 2 win.
“Alden Choria against Luis Gurule. Garule is talented for a round, but he tends to fade after five minutes. And I think Choria is really going to take over after that point. He's five years younger. I think he's the much better prospect of the pair, but he trains with Josh Vann, who has a very similar style, that building kind of fight style that I want to see from Choria in this matchup. And his round two and round three props are really nice prices, six to one and 10 to one respectively. They can also can look at his money line live after round one. Additionally, I like the fight hand inside the distance. Plus 115, I make it about minus 125.”
Independent verification agrees: Alden Choria beat Luis Gurule by unanimous decision, so the fight went the distance.
“So we both like Delia here. [47:46] I make him about minus 160. [47:48] I think you could take him up to minus 150.”
Independent verification agrees: Serghei Spivac defeated Ante Delija by unanimous decision at UFC Houston; Delija's moneyline lost.
“Will be a scary couple of minutes if Puno's trying to stand and bang with him. We get through that. I think we got it. So live bet, the decision bet is a great look. Decision only or just money line. I like Brian in all those forms. Decision only plus 205 and agree on the live bet as well. Yeah, I think. Oh, wow. Yeah, I'm going to add that one. Both really solid angles. Yeah, I'm into the fact that we both like his striking improvements and his ability to win an extended fight more than just looking at the Wikipedia and being like, oh, 13 finishes in 13 fights. This guy gotten a lot better And I think he capable of sustaining especially if it an opponent like this who is pretty much guaranteed to fade after five to seven minutes in terms of his effectiveness and his power So, yeah, interesting fight there. That's a crazy decision on the line. I would have reversed those if I was making those lines. That's crazy to me. I would have made it closer to a pick-em, but, yeah, plus 205 seems very generous. I'll definitely be taking a small stab on that”
Independent verification agrees: Ramiz Brahimaj lost by unanimous decision to Punahele Soriano; decision-only bet did not cash.
“But I like Leal pre-fight at minus 120 all the way up [54:38] to minus 135.”
Independent verification agrees: Carlos Leal defeated Chidi Njokuani by unanimous decision at UFC Houston; moneyline won.
“My favorite underdog on this card is the biggest underdog on the card. [19:10] That is Westin Wilson at plus 800 or higher against Yeezah.”
Yizha stopped Westin Wilson by KO/TKO at 0:37 of round 1, so Wilson moneyline lost (UFC). (Yizha KO/TKO, round 1, 0:37)
“Xiao Long, plus 105 to minus 120, live after round one,”
SuYoung You defeated Xiao Long by unanimous decision, so the Xiao Long live moneyline lost (UFC). (SuYoung You won unanimous decision, 29-28 x3)
“Consensus under that we like for this week between Jeff Neal and Carlos Protas, the under [32:11] two and a half rounds at minus 122”
Carlos Prates stopped Geoff Neal by KO/TKO at 4:59 of round 1, so under 2.5 rounds won (UFC). (Prates KO/TKO, round 1, 4:59)
“As I said, my best bet for this weekend, a very binary fight. The first fight on the main card between Tim Elliott and Kai Asakura. This fight is around minus 110 to end inside the distance. I projected this closer to minus 200. I think this matchup is extremely binary. Typically, flyweights finish closer to a 55% clip. Obviously, I have that closer to 67% in this matchup. But Elliott, 38 years old, coming off of a year and a half layoff, nearly two-year layoff. Asakura, seven years younger, inch taller, three-inch reach advantage, very explosive, and a big striking advantage. I think he clips Elliott, hurts him early, and puts him away. And if not I think Elliott is able to take him down implement his grappling and potentially find a submission I think there value both on Asakura by KO and Elliott submission plus 150 plus 850 respectively I'm now just going to take the under two and a half rounds at plus money or the fight to end inside the distance at about a pick-em price. Billy, any thoughts on Elliott and Asakura this weekend? And are you joining me on this under? Yeah, that was my read too.”
Tim Elliott submitted Kai Asakura at 4:39 of round 2, so under 2.5 rounds won (UFC). (Elliott submission, round 2, 4:39)
“it's on it's minus 130 to the under uh i would probably lean over there but what i prefer is meconica round two and round three when those come out i hoping you get eight to one 12 to one respectively they are out what are they what are the the prices eight to one on round two as you were hoping for and fourteen to one round three Good enough for me.”
Eric McConico defeated Cody Brundage by split decision, so he did not win in round 2 (UFC). (McConico split decision)
“is meconica round two and round three when those come out i hoping you get eight to one 12 to one respectively they are out what are they what are the the prices eight to one on round two as you were hoping for and fourteen to one round three Good enough for me.”
Eric McConico defeated Cody Brundage by split decision, so he did not win in round 3 (UFC). (McConico split decision)
“but I did make Edwards' decision line about minus 150 here and they're giving you plus 108. So I basically have no choice but to fire at her decision prop”
Joselyne Edwards stopped Priscila Cachoeira by KO in round 1, not decision (UFC). (Edwards KO, round 1, 2:24)
“Some best bets, though, for this weekend. More of a final bet for me between Elijah Smith and Toshiomi Kazama. Not even that I projected value on this bet particularly, but in terms of my reads going through these fights, This fight just screamed binary quick finish because Kazama coming in off road to UFC got KO'd by Rinde Nakamura, KO'd by Garrett Armfield. Both early in those fights and got knocked down by Charlampos Grigoriu. So knocked down or knocked out in all three of his UFC bouts. Striking defense, 42% is a major concern. Does have some pretty interesting lethal grappling though And I think this could be a binary matchup where he has a grappling advantage over Smith who we saw taken down multiple times with Vince Morales put in a few different submission attempts I think Smith, though, likely to finish this fight via early knockout. Under one and a half here is minus 130. I think I like that up to around minus 150, considering the dynamics and the binary nature of this matchup.”
Elijah Smith stopped Toshiomi Kazama by KO/TKO at 4:10 of round 1, so under 1.5 rounds won (UFC). (Smith KO/TKO, round 1, 4:10)
“Let's start with my bigger dogs and Nathan Fletcher. [12:54] at about plus 330 against Rinya Nakamura.”
Rinya Nakamura stopped Nathan Fletcher by KO/TKO in round 1, so Fletcher moneyline lost (UFC). (Nakamura KO/TKO, round 1, 1:02)
“David Grant at plus 294. [20:00] on the money line, is my favorite underdog this week. [20:02] I make him about plus 228. [20:04] I'd bet him down to plus 250.”
Davey Grant defeated Da'Mon Blackshear by unanimous decision, so Grant moneyline won (UFC). (Grant unanimous decision)
“[26:56] We've got one, though, that is a consensus play, and that is Buchecha. [27:02] Marcus Almeida, minus 280 on the money line against Martin Buday at plus 250. [27:08] Buchecha, fourth degree, Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, multiple time world Jiu-Jitsu and ADCC champion. [27:14] and IBJJF Hall of Famer. [27:17] He's 5-1 in MMA. [27:18] All wins in round one. [27:20] Last fought in November of 2024. [27:22] All five wins have come in the first round. [27:25] His one loss he was extended to a decision Martin Buday very slow very plotting not particularly athletic I think Almeida could just explode take him down and finish him inside of five minutes [27:38] And they're giving us about plus 200 for Almeida to do so. [27:43] You can also bet a same-game parlay. [27:45] We shush on the under one and a half rounds at plus 130. [27:48] I don't think that is necessarily bad either. [27:50] And the under one and a half just straight up is about even money.”
Martin Buday defeated Marcus Almeida by unanimous decision, so Buchecha did not win in round 1 (UFC). (Buday unanimous decision, 29-28 x3)
“So what I'm doing here is I'm betting one unit on Holland to win inside the distance. [33:51] that's minus 150 and then half a unit on the decision only market for d-rod which gets refunded”
Daniel Rodriguez defeated Kevin Holland by unanimous decision, so the decision-only market won (UFC). (Rodriguez unanimous decision)
“They giving you four to one on this fight to GTD and then plus money plus 105 on the over one and a half So I play the over one and a half here and then also sprinkle the TD prop at plus 400”
Tuco Tokkos submitted Junior Tafa at 4:25 of round 2, which cleared over 1.5 rounds (UFC). (Tokkos submission, round 2, 4:25)
“[37:03] I think I'm actually more concerned [37:04] about him potentially finishing Tafa [37:06] via submission in the first seven and a half minutes [37:08] than I am about Tafa knocking him out. [37:11] But light heavyweight average, [37:12] fights go to decision about a 39% clip, which is plus 156 implied.”
Tuco Tokkos submitted Junior Tafa at 4:25 of round 2, so the fight did not go to a decision (UFC). (Tokkos submission, round 2, 4:25)
“just go ahead and save davis or i play the fight gtd at plus 160 uh billy any thoughts on Mike Davis and Mitch Ramirez”
Mike Davis stopped Mitch Ramirez by KO/TKO at 4:08 of round 2, so the fight did not go to a decision (UFC). (Davis KO/TKO, round 2, 4:08)
“[43:22] Sometimes you can find the same price on the over two and a half at one book as you can find on the GTD at another. [43:29] There is enough price discrepancy from one book to the next. [43:31] Just make sure to shop around, especially now with the sweepstakes books out there, the exchanges. [43:37] You get such good prices on the over two and a half on some of those exchanges that it's the same price as taking the GTD elsewhere. [43:45] So always make sure to shop around and prepare the price discrepancies. [43:48] Last fight, though, GTD prop for me. [43:50] Bats McCline against Melissa Martinez. [43:52] Women's strawweight division. [43:54] Women's strawweights go to a decision at about a 67% clip in three-round fights. [44:00] Over the past three years, I make this close to 70% as well, [44:03] and they're giving you plus 110 on this fight, GTD. [44:07] It is a relatively binary striker versus grappler matchup. [44:11] If Martinez does not get submitted, I think this one does go off 15 minutes. [44:15] Basically, you're taking plus 110 on Melissa Martinez not to get submitted.”
Fatima Kline stopped Melissa Martinez by KO/TKO at 2:36 of round 3, so the fight did not go to a decision (UFC). (Kline KO/TKO, round 3, 2:36)
“[52:12] Shailene controlled him for three and a half minutes. [52:14] My point here is mostly Cater has been defending takedowns, had to anti-grapple in his past [52:20] couple fights Now he going to be getting a brawl in the pocket against another guy who wants the brawl with him And if anybody has takedown upside in this matchup for me it Calvin Cater I curious if you saw something else in the grappling that would point the other direction But yeah I think Cater undervalued [52:35] I make him about, I think, minus 110. [52:38] I make him minus 120. [52:40] I bet him to minus 110. [52:41] But I also like the GTD as well. [52:44] I make the GTD about minus 114. [52:46] They're giving you his highest, plus 190 on this fight to go to a decision. [52:51] I think it's close and competitive. [52:52] I think it goes all 15 minutes. [52:53] I prefer Cater. [52:54] And I like to mix Cater with the GTD prop in a combined structured bet. [53:00] You're going the other direction with Garcia and Garcia by KO, Billy.”
Steve Garcia defeated Calvin Kattar by unanimous decision, so Kattar moneyline lost (UFC). (Garcia unanimous decision)
“So give me Araujo plus 210. I think she'll be the better fighter for the first 10 minutes.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“yeah, give me Talbot by decision at plus 470, despite how high I am on Lima.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“But ultimately, you know, I think Baja Mondes could be a spot to live at after round one. But pre-fight, I want Fazeev money line and I want Fazeev to win either inside the distance or by KO. I also like his round one KO odds at 10 to 1 as well. Baja Mondes, as I said, has that bigger reach advantage, going to be the more effective striker from distance. But Fazeev in the pocket has the cleaner hands. and I do not trust Baja Mondez's striking defense or his head movement from getting clipped in the pocket. I think he's going to get hit and I think he's going to get hurt early. We'll see if Fazeev is able to put him away. But Fazeev by KO at plus 410, I make that about plus 350 and his money line at plus 110, I make closer to a pick'em price.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“But pre-fight, I want Fazeev money line and I want Fazeev to win either inside the distance or by KO. [13:59] I also like his round one KO odds at 10 to 1 as well.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“So give me Kuniev plus 220.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“Move on to my favorite underdog in this card That would be Court McGee at plus 275 against Michael Chiesa”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“we have a co-best bet this week on Jose Ochoa at minus 190 against the other Cody, Cody Durden, at plus 160.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“So I bet Bautista pre-fight to plus 125. And I also think he might find a better live number after round one.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“Pfeiffer submit Kelvin Gastelum or not, because I think Gastelum is extremely durable. I think Pfeiffer is extremely durable, but Pfeiffer is bigger than Gastelum. If he's able to get on top and submit him, I think that's the likeliest way that this one ends inside the distance. Gastelum has been submitted three times, but typically by better grapplers than what I perceive Pfeiffer as Pfeiffer varied Anderson round one. I think his cardio does tend to slip a little bit in rounds two and round three. Obviously lost that five round decision to Jack Hermanson that we were both on. I think he has enough cardio to sustain for 15 minutes, but I think Gastelum has a path to winning this fight in rounds two and rounds three. So pre-fight goes to decision for me, and then I'll be targeting Gastelum live after round one.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“I'm going to have a trifecta with Baeza, the six on top of both favorites, the two and the seven. And then the other two horses I mentioned, three Rodriguez, and the one Hill Road. So six on top of two, seven on top of one, two, three, seven.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“Likelier, six over seven, ice cold is I think how I'm playing it. Baeza getting first run on journalism.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“I lean to Barber by decision at plus 450. I'm going to bet the GTD at minus 200.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“I actually think it's going to be Todorovic. And in an extended striking fight, I like his distance management and his volume at range as well. Reese is going to have more power, but I think Dushko can actually win minutes and stay competitive here as long as he doesn't die in the first couple minutes. So small pre-fight bet on Dushko, plus 200, probably looking for a live bet after round one, assuming he doesn't get hurt bad or die.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“I like Gustafson on the money line. I projected him closer to minus 190, would bet him up to minus 180.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“I'm going to go with the Billy Ray Goff or Mies Brahimov fight to end inside the distance or the under two and a half, more likely at minus 165. I projected this minus 225 to end inside the distance It listed at about minus 215 so there is a slight edge there But I prefer the under 2 because Brahamay finishing upside is generally early in round one He a good dangerous submission grappler but he tends to run out of ideas after five minutes He doesn't have the best cardio. He's extremely hittable. And Goff is very aggressive and good at rallying in fights. So I actually think the best bets here may be Goff to win in round two at plus 500, round three at plus 850. But I do like the under two and a half at minus 160.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“I like that goes to decision of plus 165.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“I'd much rather bet her decision prop and take the loss at plus 550 than watching her get finished for the third time in Tisha Pennington's career in round three. [29:32] So yeah, Panera by decision plus 550.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“The first one, Yadier DelVal. I actually picked him to lose on the Contender Series because I was worried about his cardio. I was thinking he'd get late stop. He did not. Looked great. Big athletic dude. Jiu-Jitsu black belt. Judo brown belt. He's fighting Connor Matthews. Connor Matthews has been knocked out twice in the UFC in his two UFC fights. Once was like not even three months ago. And he's already stepping back in there. basically connor matthews can wrestle you to a decision or he can just get absolutely melted when he touches you and way lesser athlete than ydv and i just don't think he's able to take down the highly credentialed grappler and we got ira delval yet ira delval inside the distance is plus 110”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“similar thesis on Denise Gomes. You can get her inside the distance at plus 150.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“my best bet for this car jared gordon at Minus 120. I like him up to about minus 130.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“And then my trifecta is going to be built out very similarly. The two over the 6-8 over the 6-8.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“my Xacta is going to be pretty simple. [29:20] The number two journalism over the number six River Thames and the number eight Clever. [29:24] Again”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“Fioro minus 125 pre-fight, best available number. That's roughly where it opened.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“So Buffalo, Chucky Buffalo, Charles Radke, Moneyline pre-fight, KO pre-fight at plus 360.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“So Jasmine minus three and a half, minus 135 on the point spread.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“I'm going to go with Ion Cutelaba at minus 110 against Modestus Bukowskis.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“a humongous wild card, whether Baeza draws in or not. The horse I like best at current odds is the number 12 or sorry, the number nine Burnham Square.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“[5:20] opponents. Neither of these guys defend strikes well. And I do like the over here. I'm betting [5:25] the over three and a half. I'm betting the fight to go to decision. That's my biggest concern.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“and that is on michelle herrera at minus 142 against abu smagomedov who's currently about plus 125”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“The last bet I want to mention here, [10:12] Volk decision only. [10:14] Minus 225. [10:15] I made that prop closer to minus 350.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“[25:42] But I like Patricio's pressure, and I like his grappling upside here at Plus Money. This is a [25:47] very smart fighter. He's not necessarily coming in here to put on a show or to strike it out for 15 [25:52] minutes. I do think he mixes in the grappling. And the moment he does, I think Yair's game [25:57] is going to fall apart. Patricio at about plus 170. Billy, I know you're on that bet with me.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“And at plus 150, I'm happy to just take Dan Ige's money line there.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“[30:45] I like this fight to go to decision. [30:47] I made that closer to minus 200. [30:49] I took minus 136 at FanDuel.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“[41:43] But Silva inside the distance at minus 102. [41:45] I bet that at ESPN bet.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“Nikita Krylov by knockout at plus 340 against Dominick Reyes.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“Let's move on to our best bets. I've got three money lines here that I show pretty substantial value on. The one that I showed the biggest edge on, and I don't know if I'm going to actually run with this projection, but based on how I initially projected these out, Nora Cornel is one of my bigger money line edges I've shown. Now, I reconfigured my model weight recently. I'm actually much more confident than I was with the prior version I was using. I would call this like the UFC model 2.0, because I've incorporated more data sources. I'm weighing it in a much more dynamic way. The model made Nora Cornolle about a minus 340 favored here compared to Moneyline odds of minus 170.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“[49:12] this time. One of my other two best bets going to the women's strongweight division, Virna Jandiroba, [49:19] about minus 145 against Jan Janan. I like the grappler here, Jan Janan. I projected her money”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“Final best bet for me, Mikhail Olyksachuk, about minus 200.”
Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.
“[28:11] So fight GTD, my favorite bet, at minus 142 up to minus 150. [28:16] But then also Rodriguez by decision and live after round one as well. [28:19] I think Borges, his best round will likely be early. [28:23] Billy, any thoughts on Lazy Boy against Kevin Borjas?”
Kevin Borjas defeated Ronaldo Rodriguez by unanimous decision, so the fight went to decision (UFC). (Borjas unanimous decision, 30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
“I'm going to go back to the feature bout between Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pfeiffer for my best bet. [38:25] Goes to decision at minus 102.”
Kelvin Gastelum versus Joe Pyfer was cancelled, so the fight-to-go-to-decision market was void (UFC). (Gastelum-Pyfer cancelled)
“Alright. Everyone make a note. Brett Rooker, Oakland a's. What is he going off at to lead the league in home runs? Because I don't wanna miss that very tangible betting advice. He's about 30 to one. I took 80 to one earlier in the off season.”
Brent Rooker finished 2025 with 30 home runs while Cal Raleigh led MLB with 60; Rooker-to-lead-MLB-in-HR futures bet lost. (Brent Rooker 30 HR (2025); MLB leader Cal Raleigh 60 HR)
“Orvin Carroll, runs leader. It's my favorite player prop to lead the Major League in runs. I made this about nine to one in terms of projecting it out. Model d's, you know, ran it through 10,000 sims. He wins this about 10 to 11% of the time. He was awful at the start of the year last year. I think he came into the season banged up. He still finished fifth in baseball with a 120 run runs scored. He led the league in the second half, and what he started doing in the second half was pulling fly balls in the air. It's the best way to get to your power in baseball. You can find the stat on baseball spot now, pull air percentage. It's a great stat to look at to find guys who are increasing their power, raising that percentage throughout the season. It's very evident Carroll was trying to get some more pulled fly balls later in the year. And because he's so fast, he gets the second or third automatically on those pulled fly balls to right field. So Carroll walks a ton, not a guy you wanna bet for hits later, but he should be on second base basically every time he gets on base because he steals it or because he hits a double down the line. Love him to lead league in runs this year. Bet it at 20 to one. I'd take that at 10 to one or better.”
Corbin Carroll scored 107 runs in 2025, 8th in MLB, while Shohei Ohtani led MLB with 146; Carroll-to-lead-MLB-in-runs futures bet lost. (Corbin Carroll 107 runs (2025, 8th in MLB); MLB leader Shohei Ohtani 146 runs)
“Even if you assume DeGrom gets hurt 70% of the time, He's still a decent bet at four to one to lead the league in strikeouts.”
Jacob deGrom finished 2025 with 185 strikeouts (22nd in MLB) while Garrett Crochet led the AL and MLB with 255; deGrom-to-lead-AL-in-K futures bet lost. (Jacob deGrom 185 K (2025, 22nd in MLB); AL/MLB leader Garrett Crochet 255 K)
“then the the best bet on the board is the Guardians to miss the playoffs. I'm I'm the highest in the market on the Guardians. I'm at minus two forty on them to miss. I'm at 29% for them to make it. Everybody else is at 25% or below. So if, you know, just mathematically, the guardians, it is a massive edge. That's like a 15% edge at minus one forty compared to an average projection of minus two seventy five, minus three seventy five if you throw a mine away. Yeah. That that's definitely worth betting into. I added it back to the action network gap for a third time today. It's the third time I've bet it this offseason. It's still a substantial edge. I bet it at minus one twenty, minus one ten, and now minus one forty.”
The Cleveland Guardians won the 2025 AL Central at 88-74 and made the playoffs; the Guardians-to-MISS-playoffs bet loses.
“The Phillies are one of the best win total under bets on the board in my opinion. Nobody has them higher than 90 wins. I have them at 84.7. The lowest out there aside for me is at 86. But, again, 86 to 90, the average is about 87. You can bet an under 91 and a half.”
The Philadelphia Phillies finished the 2025 regular season 96-66, well over 91.5 wins; the under busts. (Philadelphia Phillies 96-66 (2025 regular season))
“And then Atlanta. You know, Atlanta won 89 games last year without Acuna or Strider for most of the season. They lost Max Fried. They have pitchers who I'm a little bit more confident in replacing lost innings than I think the market is. But across the board, the public projection market views Atlanta as a value bet. The lowest projection on them has them at, like, plus one zero four to win the division. The average projections have them about 60% and minus one fifty, you could still get plus money. I think plus one thirty. I took plus one seventy earlier in the off season.”
The Philadelphia Phillies won the 2025 NL East at 96-66; the Atlanta Braves finished 76-86, 4th place, and missed the playoffs. Braves-to-win-NL-East bet lost.
“I'm kinda down on the Yankees this year. Yankees to miss the playoffs in general. The under now that Garrett Cole's hurt, there's really not a lot of depth on the Yankees.”
The New York Yankees finished 94-68 and made the 2025 playoffs as the AL wild card; the Yankees-to-MISS-playoffs bet loses.
“Logan Gilbert, AL Cy Young. He was the second half strikeout minus walk leader. His velocity increased last year. He changed his pitch mix. Love Gilbert this year.”
Tarik Skubal won the 2025 AL Cy Young Award (his second straight); Logan Gilbert did not win. Futures bet lost.
“Chris Sanchez, AL Cy Young at 51. It seems like a long shot considering he's probably the second or third best pitcher on his team beyond Zach Wheeler.”
Tarik Skubal won the 2025 AL Cy Young Award and Paul Skenes won the 2025 NL Cy Young Award; Cristopher Sanchez won neither. Futures bet lost.
“I actually just entered a bet in the Action Network app on Leon Edwards at plus 140.”
Sean Brady submitted Leon Edwards in round 4, so Edwards moneyline lost (UFC). (Brady submission, round 4, 1:39)
“So we're in alignment here on Kevin Holland at plus 110 to get the damage done against Gutter Nelson.”
Kevin Holland defeated Gunnar Nelson by unanimous decision, so Holland moneyline won (UFC). (Holland unanimous decision)
“the heavyweight fight between Marcin Tybura and Mick Parkin to go to a decision at minus 125. I think Parkin has enough defensive grappling to be able to neutralize Tybura here but I don think he has the power to be able to hurt Tybura or the athleticism to be able to hurt Tybura like the other opponents who have hurt Tybura recently or finished Tybura recently Parkin is 10 years younger. He's quicker, but I don't view him as a particularly good athlete. I made this fight about minus 160 to reach a decision. Happy to bet it at minus 125.”
Marcin Tybura defeated Mick Parkin by unanimous decision, so the fight went to decision (UFC). (Tybura unanimous decision)
“Caolan Loughran at about minus 105 against Nathan Fletcher.”
Caolán Loughran defeated Nathan Fletcher by split decision, so Loughran moneyline won (UFC). (Loughran split decision, 29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
“So Cody Gibson at about plus 380 to win this fight.”
Da'Mon Blackshear submitted Cody Gibson in round 2, so Gibson moneyline lost (UFC). (Blackshear submission, round 2, 4:09)
“And then also Judas, by decision, [26:31] I would bet up to minus 115,”
Carli Judice stopped Yuneisy Duben by KO/TKO in round 1, not decision (UFC). (Judice KO/TKO, round 1, 1:40)
“So give me AJ Cunningham, [39:04] maybe on the money line at five to one. I actually prefer him by decision at 13 to one.”
SuYoung You defeated AJ Cunningham by unanimous decision, so Cunningham moneyline lost (UFC). (SuYoung You unanimous decision)
“So I make Magomed at 55% here. Would bet him up to about minus 120. And we're on opposite sides of the main event.”
Magomed Ankalaev defeated Alex Pereira by unanimous decision, so Ankalaev moneyline won (UFC). (Ankalaev unanimous decision, 49-46, 48-47, 48-47)
“The most, Francis Marshall at plus 230 against Mairon Santos.”
Mairon Santos defeated Francis Marshall by split decision, so Marshall moneyline lost (UFC). (Santos split decision, 27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
“So Petrosian live after round one, but also taking some pre-fight at minus 135.”
Brunno Ferreira submitted Armen Petrosyan at 4:27 of round 2, so Petrosyan moneyline lost (UFC). (Ferreira submission, round 2, 4:27)
“going to bet him. Another big juicy plus money prop, method victory prop, I like Nazareth Hakbrast at about plus 650 to win by decision against Esteban. Rybovich should be a very high volume striking war between these two. Hakbrast just a little bit more experienced against higher level of competition. I think it's just a big number. I don't view him as a guy who is particularly big KO power as he's knocked out at him to knock out Jamie Market. The guys he's knocked out have bad shins. But I do think his overall game is at the best it's been. You know, I think he's a little bit better than he was a couple of years ago. They used to give him very soft fights. They were trying to level him up. But now, Hawk Cross kind of went from being a fighter who was overrated back to underrated, especially given where this line is and the type of fight this is going to be. So, Hawk Cross by Decision, plus 650, should be a high-volume striking war.”
Nasrat Haqparast defeated Esteban Ribovics by split decision, so Haqparast won by decision (UFC). (Haqparast split decision, 29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
“The Lucas Almeida Danny Silva either the over two and a half rounds or the fight to go to Decision at plus 120”
Danny Silva defeated Lucas Almeida by split decision, so the fight went to decision (UFC). (Silva split decision, 29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
“The Ramos and Chepe Mariscal fight over two and a half at plus 117 or go to decision at plus 154. Four of Ramos' five losses are around one. He's the bigger man here, though. Two inches taller, two-inch reach advantage. He's also three years younger, and he changed camps. Before this fight, he went to train with team fighting nerves. And hopefully, they instilled him with a little bit more heart, because he does tend to be a little bit of a quitter, doesn't show the best cardio down the stretch. Maybe they got him on some vitamins that that team seems to have. Plenty of an abundance. That Gene Silva knockout last weekend was absolutely crazy. I think he ended up being faster than Melsic, which I think surprised a few people, including myself. But yeah, that move, that camp switch for Ramos, I think could ultimately be a good thing for him. I would expect him to grapple relatively proactively against Chepe, try to tie things up, make things competitive. I think Chepe's money line is just a little too steep here, considering where Ramos was lined in previous fights. But no bet for me on the side, like the over at plus money.”
Chepe Mariscal defeated Ricardo Ramos by unanimous decision, so over 2.5 rounds won (UFC). (Mariscal unanimous decision)
“which I think is giving us a nice plus money number on the fight to end inside the distance at plus 180.”
John Castaneda versus Douglas Silva de Andrade was cancelled, so the inside-distance market was void (UFC). (Castaneda-de Andrade cancelled)
“So I'll take Andrea Lee at plus 180. Also by decision at plus 270.”
JJ Aldrich defeated Andrea Lee by unanimous decision, so Lee did not win by decision (UFC). (Aldrich unanimous decision, 30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
“And then my best bet on the card is Charles Energy Johnson at minus 120.”
Ramazan Temirov defeated Charles Johnson by unanimous decision, so Johnson moneyline lost (UFC). (Temirov unanimous decision, 29-28 x3)
“Also plus 190 to win by decision. Charles Johnson, I think that should be closer to plus 130.”
Ramazan Temirov defeated Charles Johnson by unanimous decision, so Johnson did not win by decision (UFC). (Temirov unanimous decision, 29-28 x3)
“I'm betting Cejudo by decision of plus 390.”
UFC official results show Song Yadong beat Henry Cejudo by technical decision, so Cejudo did not win by decision.
“Yeah, same day Parlay, Hernandez and the over one and a half rounds at minus 155.”
UFC official results show Anthony Hernandez beat Brendan Allen by unanimous decision after three rounds, settling both parlay legs as wins.
“earlier this week, Rafael Cercaria at plus 265 is what you got on Monday. I took plus 230 last night.”
UFC official results show Modestas Bukauskas stopped Rafael Cerqueira in round one, confirming the Cerqueira moneyline loss.
“Eric McConico at about plus 240. I grabbed him last night versus Nurse Sultan Ruzaboyev.”
UFC official results show Nursulton Ruziboev stopped Eric McConico in round two, confirming the McConico moneyline loss.
“2-1, plus 210 on Walker is what I took last night.”
UFC official results show Alonzo Menifield beat Julius Walker by split decision, confirming the Walker moneyline loss.
“I'm going to go with Gene Silva by submission at plus 750.”
UFC official results show Jean Silva stopped Melsik Baghdasaryan in round one, not by submission.
“Austin Vanderford currently can get him about minus 110. I took minus 103.”
UFC official results show Austin Vanderford stopped Nikolay Veretennikov in round two, confirming the moneyline win.
“And then Elon Kutalaba at plus 152 against Ibo Aslan. I mentioned that Aslan KO won against Sir Carrier earlier. I think that's provided value both against Aslan and on Sir Carrier. Those KOs are just not repeatable. And eventually you are going to run into guys as you move up the ladder of the UFC rankings who can take those punches. And Ibo Aslan, once he goes against the guy who can take those punches, his game is going to fall apart in the second and third round. He can't grapple. He doesn't have good cardio. He has good power. He's the bigger man, two-inch taller, two-inch reach advantage. But if Kutalaba survives that first round, I think he takes over with the grappling. I think he actually has the better cardio of the two, which is very rare for an Ion Cutelaba fight.”
UFC official results show Ion Cutelaba submitted Ibo Aslan in round one, confirming the Cutelaba moneyline win.
“The main event, Jared Cannonier plus 190, Gregory Robocop Rodriguez minus 225, the over two and a half rounds in this fight. Set at about a pick and price minus 105 to the over minus 115 to the under.”
UFC official results show Jared Cannonier stopped Gregory Rodrigues in round four, so over 2.5 rounds won.
“It goes the distance at about plus 250.”
UFC official results show Jared Cannonier stopped Gregory Rodrigues in round four, not by decision.
“oh the uh the Shabazian Dylan Budka fight yeah we're both having an angle on this one uh I consider betting it the way you're betting it which is Shabazian to win in rounds one or two a plus 115. I also looked at Shabazzian by KO, it's about plus 135. Shabazzian round one is about plus 250 And then Shabazzian by round one KO is about plus 350 plus 360 So the KO one I think is a good round robin piece or just his KO odds as a round robin piece I like the fight to end inside the distance though at minus 185. I projected this at minus 260.”
UFC official results show Edmen Shahbazyan stopped Dylan Budka in round one, confirming the inside-distance win.
“My favorite of the bunch, Jose Delgado inside the distance at plus 105 against Connor Matthews. I also like his knockout prop at about 2-1.”
UFC official results show Jose Delgado stopped Connor Matthews in round one, confirming the inside-distance win.
“And then the Rafael Estevam-Jesus Aguilar fight, I projected this fight at minus 130 to go to a decision. They're giving you plus money, plus 115.”
UFC official results show Rafael Estevam beat Jesus Aguilar by unanimous decision, confirming the decision bet.
“We are in alignment on one prop in particular. That's Cody Steele by submission at plus 380.”
UFC official results show Rongzhu beat Kody Steele by unanimous decision, not by submission.
“Give me Prado on the money line at plus 200.”
UFC official results show Jake Matthews beat Francisco Prado by unanimous decision, confirming the Prado moneyline loss.
“One other bet I want to give out at minus money, Gabe Santos at minus 225.”
UFC official results show Gabriel Santos submitted Jack Jenkins in round three, confirming the moneyline win.
“Billy and I both taking the underdog Amavov at about plus 140 at current numbers.”
UFC official results show Nassourdine Imavov knocked out Israel Adesanya in round two, confirming the moneyline win.
“So Amalvov on the money line, [5:49] plus 140 by decision at plus 310. I would bet that down to about plus 250 and the money line I like [5:55] at plus 120 or better.”
UFC official results show Nassourdine Imavov beat Israel Adesanya by knockout, not decision.
“and then the over two and a half rounds i take a plus 125 i would bet that at any plus money price”
UFC official results show Shamil Gaziev knocked out Thomas Petersen in round one, so over 2.5 rounds lost.
“And then Mayra Bueno Silva at plus 220 against Jasmine Jess Sudevicius.”
UFC official results show Jasmine Jasudavicius beat Mayra Bueno Silva by unanimous decision, confirming the moneyline loss.
“Yeah, I'm on Alexander here. I projected the line closer to minus 150”
UFC official results show Bogdan Grad stopped Lucas Alexander in round two, confirming the moneyline loss.
“But I do like that fight to go to a decision at minus 105. Oliveira has been knocked out three times, never submitted. Saeed seems extremely durable. I know you're on the Oliveira side of that fight. We can get to that a little bit later. I like him by decision at plus 410, though, considering I like the fight to go the distance. So Oliveira by decision at plus 410 made that line closer to plus 300. And the fight to go to a decision at minus 105 would probably back that up to minus 110 or minus 115 between Vinicius Oliveira and Said Nurmagomedov.”
UFC official results show Vinicius Oliveira beat Said Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision, confirming the decision bet.
“Mohammad Naimov, plus 165 to win inside the distance,”
UFC official results show Muhammad Naimov won by unanimous decision, not inside the distance.
“my best bet on this card is going to be an over one and a half, And it's a fight that Billy neged a little bit earlier for saying we guarantee, or at least we all expect this one to finish. I do not expect Pavlovich and Rosenstreich to finish. I expect it to finish more than 50% of the time. But relative to the betting market, I think there is value on this heavyweight fight to go over one and a half rounds and then potentially to go to a decision. So heavyweight fights on average go to a decision about 40% of the time. It's 41% in reality. the market here is giving you 11% on the GTD. I made it 22%. So again, it's very unlikely that this fight goes to a decision. 78% of the time, it's not going to go to a decision in my estimation. But that is still a higher projection on it to go to a decision than the biting market is telling you at 89% unlikely. Now, heavyweight fights also go over one and a half. 57% of the time. If I make the adjustments here relative to the GTD, this over one and a half, by my estimation, should be plus 140 to plus 150. At worst, you're getting plus 180 on it.”
UFC official results show Sergei Pavlovich beat Jairzinho Rozenstruik by unanimous decision, so over 1.5 rounds won.
“So taking Armin as the value side of the money line at plus 280.”
Independently confirmed: Arman Tsarukyan withdrew from UFC 311 with a back injury the day before the event; Makhachev fought replacement Renato Moicano instead, so the Tsarukyan matchup never happened. (Tsarukyan pulled out (back injury); Makhachev def. Moicano by D'Arce choke, Rd 1)
“Carpenter, a very dangerous fighter, undefeated in his career, taking him at plus 265.”
Independently confirmed: Tagir Ulanbekov defeated Clayton Carpenter by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC 311, handing Carpenter the first loss of his career. (Ulanbekov def. Carpenter, unanimous decision)
“So taking Beneil Dariush, plus 140, by decision as well, interests me at plus 400.”
Independently confirmed: Dariush vs. Moicano was scrapped after Moicano was bumped up to a short-notice fight with Makhachev when Tsarukyan withdrew; Dariush did not compete at UFC 311, so this moneyline never settled. (Fight canceled; Dariush did not fight at UFC 311)
“Billy Elacana at plus 280 against Bogdan Guskov.”
Independently confirmed: Bogdan Guskov's UFC 311 opponent was late-replacement Billy Elekana (the +280 underdog referenced, likely mistranscribed as 'Elias Aukana'); Guskov submitted him via second-round guillotine choke, so the underdog moneyline lost. (Guskov def. Elekana by submission, Rd 2)
“But Reese inside the distance, Reese plus 170.”
Independently confirmed: Azamat Bekoev (short-notice replacement for Sedriques Dumas) knocked out Zachary Reese in Round 1 (3:04) at UFC 311; Reese's moneyline lost. (Bekoev def. Reese by KO, Rd 1, 3:04)
“I think Ricci's my best bet. I made Ricci's line like [49:26] minus 160. I bet her at minus 115 last night.”
UFCStats records Ricci as the unanimous-decision winner, so the stored moneyline grade agrees.
“Two other bets I like Franklin or Francis Fire Marshall at minus 140.”
UFCStats records Marshall as the split-decision winner, so the stored moneyline win agrees.
“Minus 105 for Cavalcante by decision.”
UFCStats records Cavalcanti as the split-decision winner, so the decision prop win agrees.
“I think O'Neal has much better cardio in this fight. I think she has much higher decision equity because she's likelier to win rounds two and rounds three at a much higher clip. So I like her decision prop pre-fight at about three to one. I like her live after round one much more than I like her pre-fight money line. I think Santos is going to be difficult for a round. I think this fight will be extremely competitive, if not favor Santos in round one. But I do think O'Neal takes over down the stretch at a high clip. I also like the camp she's training with. Fight ready, really good at giving fighters optimal game plans and helping them to execute it. So I expect, you know, the best version of her we've seen in a while. I've never been particularly high on her. She's very hittable. And I think Santos is going to have some success early, but I do think there's a big, I think, you know, at a neutral site, you know, no travel, all that stuff. Like I still think Casey has a cardio advantage. Now you factor in the travel. We'll see what Santos looks like on the scales because she has missed previously. So yeah, big cardio advantage. O'Neal decision and O'Neal live after round one.”
UFCStats records O'Neill as the unanimous-decision winner, so the decision prop won as stored.
“But if Burns wins this fight, forget his money line. He's likely doing it in round one. His round one submission odds, in particular, at 24 to one. I'll put 500ths of a unit on that to win a unit. I don't care. It's something you have to bet.”
UFCStats records Jenkins as the third-round stoppage winner, so the Burns first-round-submission prop lost as stored.
“I think Song, not only to win by knockout at plus 145, I made that line plus 125.”
UFCStats records Song as the unanimous-decision winner, so his knockout prop lost as stored.
“But the over three and a half rounds, I think, is the best way to bet this fight.”
UFCStats records Spivak's first-round submission, so the over-rounds ticket lost as stored.
“So Denise KO plus 335, I think was the best number I saw.”
UFCStats records Diniz as a decision winner, so the knockout prop lost as stored.
“So it's a law by submission of plus 300.”
UFCStats records Zalal's first-round submission, so the submission prop won as stored.
“We're inside the distance at plus 200.”
UFCStats records Zalal's first-round submission, so the inside-distance prop won as stored.
“So Gregorio inside the distance at minus 120.”
UFCStats records Kazama as the winner, so the Grigoriou inside-distance prop lost as stored.
“Barlow inside the distance at even money is my favorite way to bet this [26:08] fight”
UFCStats records Veretennikov as the decision winner, so the Barlow inside-distance prop lost as stored.
“I think the fight to go the distance, though, is the best bet I can make on this bout at about minus 120.”
UFCStats records Sandhagen-Nurmagomedov as a five-round decision, so the distance prop won as stored.
“And then Alejandro Bedoya at plus 120. [19:59] Sorry, Rolando.”
UFCStats records Herbert as the winner, so the Bedoya moneyline loss agrees.
“So Lupita Godinez at about plus 106.”
UFCStats records Dern as the unanimous-decision winner, so the Godinez moneyline loss agrees.
“Azamut Mirzakhanov to win inside the distance is how I'm playing it at about [24:04] plus 120.”
UFCStats records Murzakanov's second-round knockout, so the inside-distance prop won as stored.
“And I also like his round two and round three props at about plus 600 and [24:10] plus 900 respectively.”
UFCStats records Murzakanov's second-round knockout, so the round-two prop won as stored.
“And I also like his round two and round three props at about plus 600 and [24:10] plus 900 respectively.”
UFCStats records Murzakanov's second-round knockout, so the round-three prop lost as stored.
“But I'm going to play that Wood round two plus 430 and round three plus 650 respectively.”
UFCStats records Wood as the decision winner, so the round-two prop lost as stored.
“But I'm going to play that Wood round two plus 430 and round three plus 650 respectively.”
UFCStats records Wood as the decision winner, so the round-three-only prop lost as stored.
“which is why i actually don't [26:03] mind playing both rodriguez and the inside the distance because you're kind of to me free rolling”
UFCStats records Rodrigues as the winner, so the moneyline won as stored.
“because I'm going to bet Park to win by knockout [14:38] at a plus 480 or inside the distance at plus 250.”
UFC reports the Park-Tavares bout was cancelled, so the Park knockout ticket was void as stored.
“I love Bruno Silva this week. [27:50] So, took him at even money.”
UFCStats records Silva's second-round stoppage, so the moneyline won as stored.
“And I also like Bruno Silva to win inside the distance at plus 120.”
UFCStats records Silva's second-round stoppage, so the inside-distance prop won as stored.
“And considering the difference between plus 115 for decision and plus or minus 125 for Rose in the over two and a half. I'd rather have the final two and a half rounds plus Rose at minus 125. So taking Rose and Rose on the scorecards.”
UFCStats records Namajunas as a decision winner, so both same-game parlay legs won as stored.
“Silva by KO. Silva round one props, I think are interesting. And then Dober is the guy who trains at elevation and he is the guy more suited to this weight class i still think silva money line minus 110 good pre-fight and then probably live bet into dober after round one to hedge off a little”
UFCStats records Jean Silva as the third-round stoppage winner, so the Silva moneyline won as stored.
“So, yeah, just straight up Salikov plus 155. No prop. No live angle. Just taking the underdog”
UFCStats records Salikhov as the decision winner, so the moneyline won as stored.
“So Yuri on the money line at plus money. I think he has more ways to win. I give more decision equity. I think he can win via submission. And obviously, either guy can win via knockout. I think fight ending via submission could be a very interesting play. Alex went for the sub in the first fight, tried to wrap up a guillotine. I think Yuri will absolutely go for submissions if he gets this fight to the ground. But I would expect him to be a little bit more proactive grappling this time and avoiding those leg kicks early and getting that leg chewed up early. I think he should grapple from the outset. We'll see if he does it. But I think grappling upside, cardio upside, clear plus money side on Uri at plus 130.”
UFC records Alex Pereira defeating Jiri Prochazka by KO, confirming the Prochazka moneyline lost. (Pereira KO R2 0:13)
“I really like, as I said, Arlovsky plus three and half points on the point spread at minus 105.”
UFC's 29-28, 28-29, 30-27 Buday split-decision result confirms Arlovski covered the +3.5 points spread. (Buday 87, Arlovski 84 aggregate)
“But then Arlovsky on the money line at plus 220, and then his decision prop at plus 330 as well.”
UFC records Martin Buday defeating Andrei Arlovski, confirming the Arlovski moneyline lost. (Buday split decision)
“But then Arlovsky on the money line at plus 220, and then his decision prop at plus 330 as well.”
UFC records Buday defeating Arlovski by split decision, confirming Arlovski did not win by decision. (Buday split decision)
“So Gary getting minus 150 on him, I think he wins closer to seven out of 10 times than six out of 10 times. I think, honestly, it may even be closer to eight out of 10 than six out of 10. But I projected it closer to seven out of 10. I think minus 200, a fair price on him. So getting minus 150, absolutely something I need to bet, not something I wanted to bet.”
UFC records Ian Machado Garry defeating Michael Page by unanimous decision, confirming the stored won grade. (Garry unanimous decision)
“So I'm betting Ozdemir inside the distance by KO and then also the under in this fight.”
UFC's event results record Volkan Oezdemir defeating Johnny Walker by KO, confirming the inside-distance pick won. (Oezdemir KO R1 2:28)
“Best bet for this week, Felipe Lima at about minus 112, minus 114, best number I see currently against Mohamed Neymar.”
UFC's event results record Felipe Lima defeating Muhammad Naimov by submission, confirming the stored won grade. (Lima submission R3 1:15)
“So I bet Garrett Armfield at minus 180.”
UFC records Brady Hiestand defeating Garrett Armfield, confirming the Armfield moneyline lost. (Hiestand win)
“So I'm going to be betting the fight to end inside the distance at plus money.”
UFC's official event result records Imavov stopping Cannonier in round four, confirming the inside-distance pick won. (Imavov TKO R4 1:34)
“So I really like Klein in this spot at minus 130.”
UFC's official event result records Ludovit Klein defeating Thiago Moises by unanimous decision, confirming the stored won grade. (Klein unanimous decision)
“So Makachev, plus 100, even money by submission. That would be my bet for this fight.”
UFC records Islam Makhachev submitting Dustin Poirier in round five, confirming the submission pick won. (Makhachev submission R5 2:42)
“I'm going to take Gelatin Almeida inside the distance at minus 150.”
UFC records Jailton Almeida submitting Alexandr Romanov in round one, confirming the inside-distance pick won. (Almeida submission R1 2:27)
“but I think I do prefer Matthews as my best bet”
UFC records Jake Matthews defeating Phil Rowe by unanimous decision, confirming the stored won grade. (Matthews unanimous decision)
“So Almeida at minus 115, my final bet for this card, but a bet I do like.”
UFC records Roman Kopylov defeating Cesar Almeida by split decision, confirming the Almeida moneyline lost. (Kopylov split decision)
“Williams minus 130. Sean Zerillo for the fight of the night. Similar? Any live angles here? Or is there a pre-fight side that is intriguing? No, I'm taking Williams pre-fight at about minus 130.”
UFC records Khaos Williams stopping Carlston Harris in round one, confirming the stored won grade. (Williams KO R1 1:30)
“Taking Ariane Carnalosi at plus 185 This line is steamed up She opened around plus 135”
UFC records Ariane Carnelossi defeating Piera Rodriguez by disqualification, confirming the stored won grade. (Carnelossi DQ R2 3:16)
“So projected this closer to minus 150 I take Adrian Inez inside the distance at minus 135”
UFC records Adrian Yanez stopping Vinicius Salvador in round one, confirming the inside-distance pick won. (Yanez TKO R1 2:47)
“under one and a half rounds at minus 135.”
UFC records Abus Magomedov defeating Warlley Alves by unanimous decision, confirming under 1.5 rounds lost. (Magomedov unanimous decision after 3 rounds)
“Ramiz Brahimai, I have to win in rounds one or round two at plus 200.”
UFC records Themba Gorimbo defeating Ramiz Brahimaj by unanimous decision, confirming Brahimaj did not win in rounds one or two. (Gorimbo unanimous decision)
“so my exacta I'm gonna say is uh I'm gonna go with 8-9 Tuscan Gold Imagination.”
The Preakness official order places Tuscan Gold ahead of Imagination but neither in the required exacta positions, confirming the stored lost grade.
“He was knocked out by Chris Dalkas, who does not hit nearly in the same stratosphere as Derrick Lewis. So I'm expecting Lewis to touch that shin at some point within the first few rounds. I like him to win by knockout. in rounds one, two, or three. You can get that at minus 105.”
UFC records Derrick Lewis stopping Rodrigo Nascimento in round three, confirming the KO-in-rounds-one-through-three pick won. (Lewis TKO R3 0:49)
“What do we make of the betting line here, Zarrillo, with Buckley, the favorite, at minus 135, total rounds at one and a half. Where would you urge people to check this fight as far as a betting angle? Yeah, I'm taking Buckley pre-fight,”
UFC records Joaquin Buckley defeating Nursulton Ruziboev by unanimous decision, confirming the stored won grade. (Buckley unanimous decision)
“Yeah, it's the best bet. Trey Waters at minus 160, seven years younger, seven inches taller, five inch reach advantage here over Billy Goff”
UFC records Trey Waters defeating Billy Goff by unanimous decision, confirming the stored won grade. (Waters unanimous decision)
“So Borjas down to about plus 110, plus 105 for me in the first fight on the card.”
UFC records Alessandro Costa stopping Kevin Borjas in round two, confirming the Borjas moneyline lost. (Costa TKO R2 1:35)
“So Kaio by Kaio by Kaio or TKO at plus 225.”
UFC records Caio Borralho stopping Paul Craig in round two, confirming the KO-TKO pick won. (Borralho KO R2 2:10)
“And then Mauricio Hufi at even money to get a knockout.”
UFC records Mauricio Ruffy stopping Jamie Mullarkey in round one, confirming the KO pick won. (Ruffy TKO R1 4:42)
“So Joanderson Brito pre-fight up to about minus 175.”
UFC records Joanderson Brito stopping Jack Shore in round two, confirming the stored won grade. (Brito TKO R2 3:35)
“Yeah, I'm going to take fierceness as my lone A on top.”
Churchill Downs records Mystik Dan as the Derby winner, confirming Fierceness did not win.
“So like I said, even though I am handicapping fierceness to win, I like the favorite here.”
Mystik Dan won the 2024 Kentucky Derby; Fierceness finished 15th, so the outright bet on Fierceness lost.
“But I think man is the skill set to make this close and competitive. The line for it to go to decision obviously agrees. So taking the dog at plus 280 in a fight that is very likely to see the scorecards and hopefully we get a wonky split decision.”
UFC's official card records Ketlen Souza defeating Marnic Mann by unanimous decision, confirming the stored lost grade. (Souza unanimous decision)
“span under one and a half same game parlay is minus 110 i think that a pretty good price”
UFC records Bogdan Guskov stopping Ryan Spann in round two, confirming the same-game parlay lost. (Guskov TKO R2 3:16)
“The underdog that I prefer besides my best bet the most is Cynthia Calvillo at plus 110.”
UFC's official weigh-in report records Calvillo-Rodriguez as cancelled, confirming the stored void grade.
“The second would be Lukas Breschke at plus 200 or better.”
UFC records Lukasz Brzeski defeating Valter Walker by unanimous decision, confirming the stored won grade. (Brzeski unanimous decision)
“And then finally, Daniel Argueta at about plus 130.”
UFC records Jean Matsumoto submitting Dan Argueta, confirming the Argueta moneyline lost. (Matsumoto submission R2 4:59)
“Baja Mondes after round one, and that's something I would absolutely recommend. But pre-fight, I want Baja Mondes round two at about plus 450”
UFC records Ignacio Bahamondes stopping Christos Giagos in round one, confirming the round-two pick lost. (Bahamondes KO R1 3:34)
“Ignacio Bajamonde is round two and round three. The prices are great, plus 450, plus 650, respectively, but I think people know how this one goes if it gets out of the first round.”
UFC records Ignacio Bahamondes stopping Christos Giagos in round one, confirming the round-three pick lost. (Bahamondes KO R1 3:34)
“But generally speaking, I do think this total is slightly mispriced. I have this fight going to a decision closer to 55%, 60% of the time. and they're basically giving you even money and a pick-em price for the over four and a half rounds, getting plus money on the fight to go to a decision. So Blanchfield live, the over for me. That's how I'm betting Saturday's main event.”
UFC records Fiorot defeating Blanchfield by unanimous decision after five rounds, confirming over 4.5 rounds won. (Fiorot unanimous decision after 5 rounds)
“So I do like McKee. You may get a better live price on him after round one. I think Chidi will be dangerous for the first round. But I also like McKee pre-fight”
UFC records Chidi Njokuani defeating Rhys McKee by split decision, confirming the McKee moneyline lost. (Njokuani split decision)
“So we both like Aslan pre-fight at minus 125. It's hard not to like him pre-fight, considering he should dominate that first round.”
UFC records Ibo Aslan stopping Anton Turkalj in round three, confirming the stored won grade. (Aslan TKO R3 1:32)
“So Algeo round three by decision, minus 110.”
UFC records Kyle Nelson stopping Bill Algeo in round one, confirming the stated Algeo round-three-or-decision pick lost. (Nelson TKO R1 4:00)
“in the past, at worst, I think this cardio is equal, and if not, would favor Kivas in that department. So more grappling upside, potentially more volume across a 25-minute fight, and then maybe better cardio too. Have to take Kivas here at plus 190. I think there's a chance”
UFC records Rose Namajunas defeating Amanda Ribas by unanimous decision, confirming the Ribas moneyline lost. (Namajunas unanimous decision)
“So Dobson to win in rounds two or rounds three, plus 1,300 and plus 1,900 respectively.”
UFC records Edmen Shahbazyan stopping A.J. Dobson in round one, confirming the Dobson round-two pick lost. (Shahbazyan KO R1)
“So Dobson to win in rounds two or rounds three, plus 1,300 and plus 1,900 respectively.”
UFC records Edmen Shahbazyan stopping A.J. Dobson in round one, confirming the Dobson round-three pick lost. (Shahbazyan KO R1)
“In terms of a bet, I do like the over one and a half. [5:31] Was able to find as high as plus 165 if you shop around.”
UFC records Rozenstruik stopping Gaziev in round four, confirming over 1.5 rounds won. (Rozenstruik TKO R4)
“The over one and a half rounds at minus 160. [24:37] We'll bet that up to about minus 180.”
UFC records Umar Nurmagomedov defeating Bekzat Almakhan by decision after three rounds, confirming over 1.5 won. (Nurmagomedov unanimous decision after 3 rounds)
“So Klein, Cunningham, under one and a half. [26:22] You can get that at plus money. [26:23] I like that to about minus 110.”
UFC records Ludovit Klein stopping A.J. Cunningham in round one, confirming under 1.5 rounds won. (Klein TKO R1 4:36)
“So if I'm Petrino or Petrino's coaches, whatever it's, let's take him down for the first round. Don't work too hard for a finish. Just wear him out second and third round. Get pretty good prices on those. Think even higher than some other books if you shop around, but plus 400, plus 800, about a quarter unit on each, more than enough for me.”
UFC records Vitor Petrino winning by unanimous decision, confirming the round-three win pick lost. (Petrino unanimous decision)
“Moving on to our best bets. [8:34] I'm going with another over one and a half here. [8:36] Minus 110. [8:37] I like it up to about minus 125. [8:39] Christian Leroy Duncan, CLD against Claudio Ribeiro.”
UFC records Christian Leroy Duncan stopping Claudio Ribeiro in round two, confirming over 1.5 rounds won. (Duncan TKO R2 1:57)
“Toporia is the slight underdog at plus 105. Volkanovski minus 125. Pick'em fight. So do you have a side you lean to? And if not, how would you like to bet the fight? Yeah, I like Taporia here as the underdog and specifically saying as an underdog because he did open around plus 160. But earlier in this week, this line essentially moved to a pick-em price. More money has come back in on Volkanovski, pushing him back up to actual favoritism status and getting Taporia back at plus money. If you're able to get plus money on the Taporia side pre-fight, that is where I put my money.”
UFCStats records Topuria's second-round knockout, so the moneyline won as stored.
“We record on a Friday morning. So right now, looking at BetMGM, you can get minus 210 right now on the price for Marab. So there you go.”
UFCStats records Dvalishvili as the unanimous-decision winner, so the moneyline won as stored.
“So Mackenzie Dern, plus 116, like that down to about plus 110 pre-fight.”
UFCStats records Lemos as the decision winner, so the Dern moneyline loss agrees.
“So fight to go to a decision to give him money. Like that to about minus 110.”
UFCStats records Garry-Neal as a three-round decision, so the decision prop won as stored.
“So Marcos Sergero de Lima, minus 140.”
UFCStats records the Lima-Tafa contest as a no contest, so the moneyline was void as stored.
“So I like Ige to win this fight by knockout I got it at plus 320”
UFCStats records Ige's first-round knockout, so the knockout prop won as stored.
“Gregory Rodriguez and Brad Taveras over two and a half rounds.”
UFCStats records Rodriguez-Tavares as a three-round decision, so the over-rounds ticket won as stored.
“So anything at about minus 170 or better, I'll take on the favorite and lay it with Nasruddin Amalvov.”
UFCStats records Imavov as the majority-decision winner, so the moneyline won as stored.
“So fine laying minus 185 on Moicano.”
UFCStats records Moicano as the unanimous-decision winner, so the moneyline won as stored.
“But standing Rodriguez, a huge speed advantage, huge technical boxing advantage. I think he's very alive to finish this fight, and I like his odds at plus 210.”
UFCStats records Gorimbo's first-round knockout, so the Rodriguez moneyline loss agrees.
“I also like Viviane Araujo by decision at plus 450”
UFCStats records Silva as the decision winner, so the Araujo decision prop lost as stored.
“And then lastly, Julia Stolyarenko, one of my favorite fighters to bet because I bet her the same way every time, and she keeps catching it. Stoliarenko round one, Stoliarenko by submission,”
UFCStats records Kowalkiewicz's third-round stoppage, so the Stolyarenko first-round-submission prop lost as stored.
“and an even closer fight than that plus 220 line indicates. So Belbita on the money line, and I think in a 50-50 fight, also like her by decision a little bit, but just going to take the money line here.”
UFCStats records McCann's first-round submission, so the Belbita moneyline loss agrees.
“And that is a line right now looking at FanDuel. Based on the latest movement, Ghosn continues to rise as far as being a favorite at minus 178. Spivik at plus 144. How do you analyze that line movement throughout the course of the week and how you'd like to bet it? I agree with the line movements. Beck gone at minus 170 last night. Would still bat him up to about minus 190, minus 195 today. Certainly projected him as a bigger favorite, closer to minus 215 than the market indicates. And I think this is a very binary fight. And I would also lean to the unders in this matchup, the under two and a half, probably the under three and a half as a parlay piece. But I do think this one probably ends in the first seven and a half to 12 and a half minutes. So the under one and a half, under two and a half interests me as well in any sort of binary fight. Gon, clearly the better striker. Spivak, the better grappler. But I do think he's going to struggle to get takedowns here just because of the way he goes about them. One, he has a three-inch reach advantage to close. And given the fact that there's a huge striking discrepancy, I don't think Gon is going to let him inside very easily. He's great with his range weapons, his jab, his keep kicks. He's great at keeping opponents off of him. And Spivak has also fought a lot of his recent fights in that UFC Apex cage. So he's going to a bigger cage now where he's going to struggle even more to close that distance. And he also doesn't have the type of wrestling style that we see have success against Ghan. He doesn have that American single leg double leg chain wrestling type of style He looks for wrist control He looks to get into the clinch and he looks to trip guys or go for upper body takedowns which I think Gahn is going to be much better at defending with his Muay Thai abilities, with his clinch fighting than he would if he was going against more of an American style freestyle wrestler. So I think Gahn has a good chance here to win those clinch positions to keep this fight standing and to eventually put Spivak away. Compared to other heavyweights, I don't think Spivak is particularly durable either. He sort of gets clipped and folds the moment he faces any sort of adversity when he's fighting against Tom Aspinall, basically got to a clinch position, couldn't get the fight to the ground, ate one big punch or elbow, and that was the end of the fight. So I don't think Spivak is particularly durable. I think Gahn's submission defense, the fact that he was submitted so quickly by Jon Jones, I think people were sort of baking that too much into the line. I don't think Spivak is nearly the type of offensive wrestling game that Jon Jones has, not even a similar style, but just the type of style I don't think is going to have a ton of success grappling. Cyril Ghosn. And one other thing I want to mention too, even when Spivak has been able to get guys down to the mat immediately, Derek Lewis, they were able to pop back up. He sort of, Matt returned them, wore them down with multiple takedown attempts, but it wasn't chain wrestling. Guys were able to pop right back up to their feet, and then he just sort of had to repeat the same technique. So I do think maybe he gets Ghosn to the ground, but I expect Gon to pop right back up to his feet. And the moment he gets at clear striking range and lands some clean shots on Spivak, I think that'll be the end of the fight. So Gon on the money line, Gon by knockout, I think are my favorite ways to play this fight.”
Official UFC result confirms Cyril Gane ML; the stored won outcome is correct.
“So Gon on the money line, Gon by knockout, I think are my favorite ways to play this fight.”
Official UFC result confirms Cyril Gane by KO/TKO; the stored won outcome is correct.
“And same answer, backing the French fighter at about minus 190.”
Official UFC result confirms Manon Fiorot ML; the stored won outcome is correct.
“But I expect Gomory to make it much more competitive than the plus 175 money line would indicate. So that is one of my underdogs.”
Official UFC result confirms Yanis Ghemmouri ML; the stored lost outcome is correct.
“But again, underdog at plus money, plus 150. And I think Guskov inside the distance as well, but would not touch the under one and a half after getting juiced up from about minus 135 to minus 150. I think that cashes, but I'm not necessarily going. Volkan's been a pretty durable guy throughout his career. So these two just sort of slug it out and it gets over that seven and a half minute mark. I'm not going to be shocked. But yeah, Guskov, I think just as much finishing equity. And he's the younger. So I'm going to take the underdog money line.”
Official UFC result confirms Bogdan Guskov ML; the stored lost outcome is correct.
“minus 160. Another fight I lined over minus 200 in that market. And I'm happy to bet this fight”
Official UFC result confirms Fight goes to decision (over); the stored lost outcome is correct.
“But in terms of how I want to bet this matchup, Holloway inside the distance at minus 125.”
Official UFC result confirms Max Holloway to win inside the distance; the stored won outcome is correct.
“Also, his knockout prop at minus 115, I think, are five bets.”
Official UFC result confirms Max Holloway by KO/TKO; the stored won outcome is correct.
“So Ryan Spann, by decision of plus 1,300, absolutely a bet.”
Official UFC result confirms Ryan Spann by decision; the stored lost outcome is correct.
“So I have no idea why Breschke is the underdog in this spot. Absolutely my favorite underdog in the card. Maybe even my favorite Moneyline bet on the card. As I said, all of the grappling upside and the striking at worst, I think is 50-50. So Lukasz Breschke here, a consensus underdog play for me and Billy.”
Official UFC result confirms Lukasz Breschke ML; the stored lost outcome is correct.
“And as I said, Aaron's retains all of the grappling upside in this matchup too. So a couple of underdogs for me, Aaron's and Breschke, who I think can keep the striking competitive at a minimum and retain all of the grappling upside at plus money.”
Official UFC result confirms Jarno Aarens ML; the stored lost outcome is correct.
“But in terms of how I want to bet this, yes, I'm sprinkling a little bit on Caceres' money line at two to one, but I actually think his submission or decision double chance prop at plus 290 is a better way to go about playing it.”
Official UFC result confirms Alex Caceres submission or decision (double chance); the stored lost outcome is correct.
“And then, you know, I just want to mention before we move on that submission or decision double chance prop, I'm also playing Parker Porter in his fight the exact same way. I think Porter's knockout is too far baked into his money line against Tapa. I think it's a very similar matchup to this one where there's a clear striking advantage for the favorite. But I think the underdog has a chance to either grapple or win minutes down the stretch. So Parker Porter submission or decision.”
Official UFC result confirms Parker Porter submission or decision (double chance); the stored lost outcome is correct.
“Nakamura Garcia under one and a half rounds at minus 160.”
Official UFC result confirms Nakamura/Garcia Under 1.5 rounds; the stored lost outcome is correct.
“I'm playing it to go to a decision at minus 220.”
Official UFC result confirms Blanchfield vs Santos to go to decision; the stored won outcome is correct.
“So Aljermaine Sterling gives more ways to win. I like him to win inside the distance at plus 115.”
Official UFC result confirms Aljamain Sterling to win inside the distance; the stored lost outcome is correct.
“I also like the fight to end inside the distance at minus 215. Projected those lines closer to about minus 111 and minus 260 respectively.”
Official UFC result confirms Fight to end inside the distance; the stored won outcome is correct.
“I should have mentioned Chris Weidman by decision at plus 500. In addition to his money line, absolutely going to be playing Weidman by decision.”
Official UFC result confirms Chris Weidman by decision; the stored lost outcome is correct.
“Yeah, and this is an actual best bet this week. So Pedro Munoz takes a lot of boxes that we talk about betting underdogs. Fight heavily favored to go to a decision. Fighter with all of the grappling upside at plus money. You look at Pedro Munoz's career, and he's a guy who has insane Brazilian jiu-jitsu finishing skill, but you don't see him employed a lot because he doesn't get to wrestle. And it's one of those things where you're not really sure if he can wrestle. Like a lot of guys with jiu-jitsu, you don't know if he can wrestle. Or based on the opponents he's faced, you don't know if he's had the ability to wrestle. Because he's faced a lot of guys who are really good counter grapplers, or very good grapplers and have the wrestling advantage in their own right. Dom Cruz, Jose Aldo, Jimmy Rivera, Frankie Yeager, Aljamain Sterling, Cody Garbrandt. Other than Sean O'Malley, that's his recent competition. And in his last fight against Chris Gutierrez, he didn't go for a takedown, but he did get a knockdown and ended up getting top position. And Chito Vera is by far the worst defensive wrestler that Pedro Munoz has faced in about 15 fights, 10 fights. It's been quite a long time since Pedro Munoz has gone into a fight and said, I can take this guy down and consolidate top position and lay on top of him. Also add in the fact that Chito Vera is much better in five round fights than three round fights. He consistently starts slow and loses the first round, looks to get a read on his opponents, and then he sort of picks up the pace and comes alive. That has cost him in the past in three round fights. He typically falls behind. You can typically bet Chito Vera better at a better live number after round one than you would get pre-fight. If you're looking to bet Chito here, I think that's the way to play it. You bet Chito live after round one, probably closer to a pick-em number after a close and competitive first round. Because I think there's a chance Pedro Munoz just grapples from the outset. Fights with the top camp, American top team, they're going to tell him to grapple. I 100% know they're going to tell him to wrestle. It's very obvious that he can land takedowns if he wants them here and that Chito is going to accept takedowns and not look to get off of his back if he does get taken down So all of the grappling upside fight heavily favored to go to a decision Very easy to bet the underdog here in a fight that I think even if it stays standing, is basically a 50-50 matchup. Okay, that price is coming down. It's at plus 160 at FanDuel Billy.”
Official UFC result confirms Pedro Munoz ML; the stored lost outcome is correct.
“the main event featured welterweight matchup between Rafael Dos Anjos. He is the favorite taking on Vicente Luque. It's almost a pick them. I mean, it's getting close to that point. Sean Zarrillo, when you assess this one, just what do you make of the fight, the matchup? And based on those edges, how would you like to bet it? Yeah, I like RDA here quite a bit, actually. Made him closer to 60% in this matchup. So I bet him up to about minus 140.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Rafael Dos Anjos ML settled lost as recorded.
“Going to take Josh Fremd inside the distance at minus 135. Big juicy money line price.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Josh Fremd inside the distance settled lost as recorded.
“my favorite bet, going to take Iasmin Lucindo here at around minus 200. That's about where I'd bet her up to. Got her closer to minus 185.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Yasmin Lucindo ML settled won as recorded.
“So Font decision-only, plus 225.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Rob Font decision-only (finish void) settled lost as recorded.
“I think Houni Barcelos is the better grappler. I think the striking is going to be competitive. Phillips probably has more volume, but Howney has more power. So yeah, this to me, plus 175, a bet that I was a bit skeptical to make based on all the factors I laid out initially. But the skill discrepancy, I think Howney is actually the better fighter.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Houni Barcelos ML settled lost as recorded.
“And then the other underdog who I like before we get to my best bet later is Alexa Camer at plus 135. Limited MMA experience, only eight fights, going against Tanner Boser, who dropped down from heavyweight in his last fight and was knocked out by Ian Kudalaba. And he just looks so slow and so fragile. I think the biggest advantage Boser had at heavyweight was speed to a degree, because he was on the smaller side for heavyweight, but mostly his cardio. And now cutting down to 205, taking that stamina somewhat to a degree out of himself, taking that durability away to a degree, going against guys who have a comparable level of power as he does. And arguably, I'd say Kamer has the faster hand. So give me Kamer, plus 135.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Alexa Camer ML settled lost as recorded.
“Under two and a half, minus 200.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Under 2.5 rounds settled won as recorded.
“Under one and a half, minus 105.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Under 1.5 rounds settled lost as recorded.
“So Bahamodis Klein, fight to go to decision, minus 120.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Bahamondes vs Klein fight to go to decision settled won as recorded.
“So Bazooka plus 155. [34:05] As I said, he's not the best fighter, but I know he's going to try hard.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Dennis Buzukja ML settled lost as recorded.
“But as I said, a straight bet up to about minus 230 on the main event to end inside the distance. I think it's fine considering I projected it closer to minus 300.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Poirier vs Gaethje to end inside the distance settled won as recorded.
“So give me Alex Pereira to about minus 110. And I also like his knockout odds, his ITD odds as well.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Alex Pereira ML settled won as recorded.
“We're going to Priscila Cachoeira inside the distance at plus 450. Projected this line for me closer to about plus 360.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Priscila Cachoeira to win inside the distance settled lost as recorded.
“Yeah, Tony Ferguson and Bobby Green fight to end inside the distance. It is a pick-em price at minus 110. I projected this at minus 122. It's my favorite bet on the card.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Ferguson vs Green to end inside the distance settled won as recorded.
“Yeah, going with the hometown fighter, Davey Grant at plus 125.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Davey Grant ML settled lost as recorded.
“but I'm just going to take Nathaniel Wood to win inside the distance at plus [17:59] 300.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Nathaniel Wood to win inside the distance settled lost as recorded.
“Yeah, there's a few inside the distance props that I like, but probably my favorite amongst them, as I've just mentioned, Nathaniel Wood, is Julia Stoja-Ranko in the co-main event. at plus 275.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Stoliarenko fight to end inside the distance settled won as recorded.
“Yeah, I'm going to go with Danny Hot Chocolate Roberts. He is the more skilled [28:50] fighter here.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Danny Roberts ML settled lost as recorded.
“So Hefez plus 475 on the money line, like it down to about plus 420.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Basile Hafez ML settled lost as recorded.
“We have Nazim Sadikov. He is at minus 152 as we record on a Friday morning. The favorite over Terrence McKinney. He's at plus 124. That number has risen ever so slightly. Zerillo, same question as the main event. How do we assess this fight and how would you like to bet it? Yeah, Sadiqov is my best bet on the card. We'll talk about some best bets later. There's actually a bunch of other money lines I like on this card, more so than usual, but Satikov would be my best bet amongst them. The thing is, you're going to”
Official UFC event results confirm that Nazim Sadikov ML settled won as recorded.
“I think he's a justifiable favorite at minus 150. [28:43] Another guy I think you can live bet after round one, but I think a fine pre-fight bet at minus 150.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Jin Young Park ML settled won as recorded.
“So going to take J-Rod at plus 140 to upset the two-time Derby champion and one of my favorite players, the Polar Air, as my best bet.”
Official MLB Home Run Derby results confirm that Julio Rodriguez to beat Pete Alonso in Round 1 settled won as recorded.
“So I'll take Shannon Ross at plus money and will not enjoy that sweat probably.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Shannon Ross ML settled lost as recorded.
“but if i'm playing pantoja which i'm going to do i'm going to bet him inside the distance of plus 350”
Official UFC event results confirm that Pantoja to win inside the distance settled lost as recorded.
“i'm going to bet pantoja in round one plus 1100”
Official UFC event results confirm that Pantoja to win in round 1 settled lost as recorded.
“i'm going to bet pantoja in round one plus 1100 or round two of plus 1600”
Official UFC event results confirm that Pantoja to win in round 2 settled lost as recorded.
“But yeah, I like the under one and a half.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Under 1.5 rounds settled lost as recorded.
“So, yeah, if I'm betting this fight, Whitaker by decision plus 220.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Whittaker by decision settled lost as recorded.
“I really like the over one and a half there”
Official UFC event results confirm that Over 1.5 rounds settled lost as recorded.
“I like Crute by decision at plus 600”
Official UFC event results confirm that Crute by decision settled lost as recorded.
“So Lawler is two to one final bet,”
Official UFC event results confirm that Robbie Lawler ML settled won as recorded.
“So Benoit Saint-Denis for me, plus 260. [10:09] I know Billy's on him as well.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Benoît Saint Denis ML settled won as recorded.
“Grant Dawson, Damir Ismagulov, both at minus 110 at Fandle. lightweight match also on the main card both fighters at minus 110 i'm always fat it's not often you both go against each other so i'm fascinated by this discussion we might have here sean what direction are you going in dawson or isma guloff we seem to be on the opposite side of one another in fights that involve guys who are back take and body lock specialists uh grant dawson is very good at taking the back locking in the body triangle but i feel like billy is normally on these guys and i'm on the guy who's the striker who i think has a chance of getting out of that body lock and winning the striking on the feet so yes another fight where billy and i are kind of on opposite sides of uh like the bro rosas christian rodriguez fight where it may determine based on one position and whether dawson is able of getting the fight to the ground taking the back locking in that body triangle and potentially securing dominant position if not finishing the fight. Dawson, a guy, 8-0-1 in the UFC, but he's really impressed me because he keeps getting better. When I first started betting his fights, I thought he had terrible cardio. I was consistently looking to bet against him in round three. And generally, we don't see these fighters improve their cardio. Cardio seems like it's a difficult thing to make better. I don't know how you do it beyond running or doing word work or flipping tires or what have you. Billy would probably a better idea for me than that but dawson finished both of his opponents past few fights in round three his cardio has looked much better he pushes an aggressive pace really exhausts his opponents and i think it's partially due to a camp switch he was training with james kraus kraus got suspended by the sport for gambling that camp went through a bunch of turmoil but he left to go to American Top Team which is one of the top camps in the sport And the improvements have been very noticeable for Grant Dawson So I think this is a guy who's capable of fighting for a belt. Don't think he's necessarily capable of being a champion or defending the belt multiple times, but I absolutely think given his style, his aggressive grappling style, suffocating style, that he has this sort of meta style that you need to get yourself into the title picture. Damaris Magulov, very, very fantastic striker, really slick. We've seen him grappled in the past. I think it's possible that he can deny the takedowns and make this not competitive, but win the fight by keeping it on the feet. But I'm going to go with the grappler and all of the grappling upside at a pick-em price. I would make Dawson closer to 60%.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Grant Dawson ML settled won as recorded.
“so this fight to go to a decision at minus 125 i think is a pretty solid bet.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Fight to go to a decision settled lost as recorded.
“Yeah, first fight on the card, but going even off, about plus 120, like it down to plus 110 or so. against Romanov.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Blagoy Ivanov ML settled lost as recorded.
“The way I played Tepuria, I think his first round prop is D-juice, getting it at plus 150. Wherever it is, it's too low. But Tepuria round two plus 470 Round three 10 to one I think those are better options Kind of with the way I see the pace playing out him taking it cautious feeling out the process for the first couple minutes and then getting a bit more aggressive in his pursuit of Emmett. So Toporio, round two, round three, sprinkling a little bit of both.”
Ilia Topuria beat Josh Emmett by unanimous decision after five rounds, not in Round 2 (UFC official results).
“But Tepuria round two plus 470 Round three 10 to one I think those are better options Kind of with the way I see the pace playing out him taking it cautious feeling out the process for the first couple minutes and then getting a bit more aggressive in his pursuit of Emmett. So Toporio, round two, round three, sprinkling a little bit of both.”
Ilia Topuria beat Josh Emmett by unanimous decision after five rounds, not in Round 3 (UFC official results).
“So give me David Onama two to one.”
David Onama beat Gabriel Santos by Round 2 knockout, so the moneyline won as stored (UFC official results).
“So Kleydson Rodrigues at plus 225 against Tatsuro Tyra.”
Kleydson Rodrigues versus Tatsuro Taira was cancelled, so the moneyline was void as stored (UFC official event results).
“Yeah, a lot of finish props on this card for me as well. And probably my favorite amongst them is Randy Brown and Wellington Turman to end Inside the Distance. So you could get that at minus 175.”
Randy Brown beat Wellington Turman by unanimous decision, so the fight went the distance as stored (UFC official results).
“Just take Dumas by money line straight up plus 155”
Cedric Dumas beat Cody Brundage by unanimous decision, so the moneyline won as stored (UFC official event results).
“Yeah, I'm going to back Irene Aldana here at around plus 250.”
Amanda Nunes beat Irene Aldana by unanimous decision, so the Aldana moneyline lost as stored (UFC official results).
“[8:16] So, yeah, I'm passing pre-fight just because I don't know [8:19] what we're going to see here. [8:20] I do think live angles are the way to play this one, though. [8:22] All right. Normally when we do these UFC betting previews, gents, you both usually identify if you'd like the underdogs or if it's a good underdog card. Is it a good dog card? And Zerillo, do you have one that jumps out to you? [8:35] Well, I'm taking Irene Eldata in the main event at a big dog price. [8:38] I'm going to look to another woman's fight with Jasmine Jadisudovicius at plus 250. [8:43] So taking two dogs already closer to plus 250, plus 265.”
Jasmine Jasudavicius beat Miranda Maverick by unanimous decision, so the moneyline won as stored (UFC official results).
“[12:09] might want to bet and also watch yeah i mean this is i don't need to bet on this fight to enjoy it [12:15] I have a bet on this fight, but I don't need to bet on this fight. [12:19] All right. Give it to me. [12:21] Both guys very fragile fight highly likely to end inside the distance I believe it minus 300 ish Would not bet that maybe an under one and a half if you want to get aggressive at plus money because I think somebody does get finished here [12:36] But in terms of a bet, [12:37] in terms of finding betting value, [12:39] Charles LeBronx inside the distance at plus 200.”
Charles Oliveira stopped Beneil Dariush in Round 1, so the inside-distance prop won as stored (UFC official results).
“I'm going to do Chris Curtis and Nostradim Imovov also to go to a decision of plus one or minus 128.”
Chris Curtis versus Nassourdine Imavov was ruled a no contest, so the decision prop was void as stored (UFC official results).
“[23:12] We want these all to go successfully. [23:15] Last one before we get out of here. [23:17] What do you got? [23:18] Yeah, I did bump the staking up on this one slightly. [23:20] So a true best bet. [23:21] Going back to the same fight, Dan Ige versus Nate Landwehr. [23:23] fight to end inside the distance at minus 135.”
Dan Ige beat Nate Landwehr by unanimous decision, so the fight did not end inside the distance as stored (UFC official results).
“I will definitely be betting red run alongside you, Mike Samich.”
Next won the Grade 2 Brooklyn Stakes, so Red Run did not win as stored (Belmont Park results).
“So Abazi at minus 110, but I also like the fight to end inside the distance at around minus 135.”
Amir Albazi beat Kai Kara-France by split decision, so the Albazi moneyline won as stored (UFC official results).
“So Abazi at minus 110, but I also like the fight to end inside the distance at around minus 135.”
Amir Albazi beat Kai Kara-France by split decision after five rounds, so the inside-distance prop lost as stored (UFC official results).
“So Panetta plus 155, I think a solid bet.”
Alex Caceres beat Daniel Pineda by unanimous decision, so the Pineda moneyline lost as stored (UFC official results).
“[19:55] You can still find them somewhere, I'm sure. [19:57] I'm sure. [19:58] The screenshots. [20:00] Moving on to top props for UFC 74 in Las Vegas. [20:07] Zarello, you do have a prop that is featured on the main card. [20:11] What do you have? [20:12] Yeah, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos to win inside the distance against Abubakar Nurmagomedov.”
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos won by split decision, not inside the distance, so the prop lost as stored (UFC official results).
“So Castaneda minus 135 pre-fight live after round one.”
John Castaneda beat Muin Gafurov by unanimous decision, so the moneyline won as stored (UFC official results).
“[9:17] I think she was coming in off of a full camp [9:19] while Lupe is the one jumping in here on short notice. [9:21] But regardless, the stylistic matchups, [9:24] I would actually make Ducote the favorite. [9:25] So Emily Ducote at plus 120, [9:28] and then maybe Ducote by decision, [9:30] but probably just played the money one.”
Lupita Godinez beat Emily Ducote by unanimous decision, so the Ducote moneyline lost as stored (UFC official results).
“So, Vyacheslav Borshev, minus 150, I think he's the better minute winner.”
Viacheslav Borshchev stopped Maheshate in Round 2, so the moneyline won as stored (UFC official results).
“SDA. So Douglas Silva de Andrade, plus 130 on the money line. One of a few underdogs that I like on”
Douglas Silva de Andrade beat Cody Stamann by unanimous decision, confirming the stored moneyline win (UFC).
“[14:48] So D-Rod by knockout at plus 800, considering we've seen Gary wobble badly in the past. [14:54] I believe he would have been finished by Song Kanan if Kanan hadn followed him to the ground So yeah D money line plus 240 knockout plus 800 certainly easy bets for me to make Real quick before we move on Sean mentioned the durability [15:07] I believe Daniel Rodriguez, not even just in the UFC,”
Ian Machado Garry stopped Daniel Rodriguez, so Rodriguez's moneyline lost as stored (UFC).
“[14:48] So D-Rod by knockout at plus 800, considering we've seen Gary wobble badly in the past.”
Ian Machado Garry stopped Daniel Rodriguez, so the Rodriguez-by-KO/TKO prop lost as stored (UFC).
“fight to end inside the distance of plus one 20 I would love for somebody to go back and tell me all the fights in UFC history where the combined age is over 75 and see what the finish rate is because it has to be pretty high So plus 120 on this fight to end by finish seems crazy”
Matt Brown stopped Court McGee, so the inside-distance prop won as stored (UFC).
“Anthony the Lionheart Smith at a pick-em price, minus 110.”
Johnny Walker beat Anthony Smith by unanimous decision, so Smith's moneyline lost as stored (UFC).
“[3:37] He has the better cardio, more wrestling, all of the grappling upside, essentially. [3:44] Song Yedong, the better striker, faster hands. [3:46] And I think relative to Ricky's previous opponents is much more physically strong.”
Song Yadong stopped Ricky Simon, confirming the stored moneyline win (UFC).
“[9:06] Yeah, I'm going to go with Fernando Padilla, plus 130.”
Fernando Padilla stopped Julian Erosa, confirming the stored moneyline win (UFC).
“[9:08] I also like him by knockout or TKO at plus 360.”
Fernando Padilla stopped Julian Erosa, confirming the Padilla-by-KO/TKO prop win (UFC).
“[25:17] I like final bet. [25:18] The buddy system, Martin Buday, minus 110. [25:21] He has the grappling and the finishing upside here.”
Martin Buday beat Jake Collier by unanimous decision, confirming the stored moneyline win (UFC).
“[29:55] And now she's a substantial underdog. [29:56] I'm also on Horth with you at minus 150. [30:00] Not a big bet and really wouldn't really bet it past that price.”
Jamey-Lyn Horth beat Hailey Cowan by unanimous decision, confirming the stored moneyline win (UFC).
“So Cachuera on the money line, Cachuera alive after round one, because her opponent, Karine Silva, the one time she's been extended past a round and a half, she lost.”
Cachoeira-Silva was cancelled after Cachoeira missed weight, confirming the stored void (UFC).
“I ultimately settled on a same-game parlay with Holloway in the over one and a half rounds. [4:09] It's currently down at minus 105.”
Official UFC event results confirm that SGP: Holloway ML + Over 1.5 rounds settled won as recorded.
“Piera Rodriguez plus 115. I think it's a pretty similar dynamic in terms of the matchup [8:36] to the Rosas Rodriguez fight last week”
Official UFC event results confirm that Piera Rodriguez ML settled lost as recorded.
“Edson Barboza, I think the clear money line side of plus 150.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Edson Barboza ML settled won as recorded.
“So Pedro Munoz by decision [14:52] at plus 400 projected this at plus 325”
Official UFC event results confirm that Pedro Munhoz to win by decision settled won as recorded.
“[13:41] I don't think many people are aware of Christian Rodriguez, [13:43] how talented this guy is in his own gym. [13:45] Fought JSP at a high pace, a guy who puts a high wrestling pace on him, [13:49] and he was still close to finishing JSP in the third round. [13:52] So he's going to be able to fight through adversity, [13:55] keep going and be dangerous throughout the fight. [13:56] That's the kind of guy I want to bet at plus 210.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Christian Rodriguez ML settled won as recorded.
“So Steve Garcia plus 155 on enthusiasm, not on skill.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Steve Garcia ML settled won as recorded.
“[19:05] If he doesn't get the takedowns, if he doesn't finish Jorge, I expect this one to go to a decision. [19:10] I actually think Jorge's power, his power in his hands is a little bit overrated at 170. [19:16] I know I'm not so trusting of Burns' durability, [19:19] but he went through a full war with Hamzat. [19:22] Maybe the chin is ready to crack, who knows. [19:24] But I like the over here, 2.5 plus 115. [19:27] Burns v. decision plus 170, made that closer to plus 150.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Over 2.5 rounds settled won as recorded.
“So 15-minute fight, Rob Font via decision plus 285.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Rob Font via decision settled lost as recorded.
“I'm not going to go into the whole Chris Curtis breakdown, but Chris Curtis via decision plus 240.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Chris Curtis via decision settled lost as recorded.
“So yes, I would absolutely jump on the Braves right now, [4:27] down to plus 105 to win the division,”
Official Masters results confirm that Braves to win NL East settled won as recorded.
“Yeah the Cardinals my favorite long shot World Series pick in the National League”
Official Masters results confirm that Cardinals to win World Series settled lost as recorded.
“I think Padres plus 140-ish to win the division is by far the best way to play the NL West.”
Official Masters results confirm that Padres to win NL West settled lost as recorded.
“So definitely a win total under bet for me, [7:42] probably down to about 88 wins after the Reese Hoskins injury.”
Phillies finished 90-72 in 2023, well over the 88-win total, so the Phillies-under bet lost (ESPN standings). (90-72)
“So all that adds up to me to making the Braves about 60% to win their division, minus 150 at plus. They were plus 140. After the Diaz injury, they dropped down to about plus 115. And then I think after the Hoskins injury, they moved closer to even money. So you've seen the market adjust relative to the injuries for the Mets and the Phillies in favor of the Braves. But yeah, I mean, since the midpoint of last season, the Braves have been my favorite team in baseball, my best protected team in baseball. Fangraphs has basically carried the same opinion. Pakoda is lower on the Braves and higher on the Mets. But I'm happy to see that it's not just me who views the Braves as the best team in baseball, not only from a depth perspective, but in terms of the star talent they have. They lose to Andy Swanson, but they didn't get a full season from Acuna last year. I expect Matt Olsen to take another step forward. Ozzie Albee is coming back. So they lost a little bit of production, but I expect them to replace it in different ways. And just the number of outs they give themselves to with player development, how deep their bullpen is. It's a very difficult team, but the safety of betting the Braves now at 10 to 1, knowing they're going to make the playoffs, I think is why I like them. Pennant, World Series, and in addition to their divisional futures, they're just a very likely team to make the Devs.”
Braves went 104-58 in 2023 and won the NL East (ESPN standings).
“It's a very difficult team, but the safety of betting the Braves now at 10 to 1, knowing they're going to make the playoffs, I think is why I like them. Pennant, World Series, and in addition to their divisional futures, they're just a very likely team to make the Devs.”
The Braves were eliminated by the Phillies in the 2023 NLDS (3-1), and the Rangers won the World Series, so the Braves-to-win-the-World-Series futures lost.
“He's looking for home runs, but in terms of what he's looking to recognize and hit, this guy is as good as Soto in terms of plate discipline.”
Matt Olson led MLB with 54 home runs in 2023; Yordan Alvarez did not lead, so the HR-leader futures lost. (Olson 54 HR)
“and I bet him MVP at 14 to one as well.”
Shohei Ohtani won the 2023 AL MVP unanimously; Yordan Alvarez did not win, so the MVP futures lost.
“But his odds relative to where he ranks in terms of his average expected production per playing time, I have him as the RBI leader in terms of RBIs per plate appearance, all of it aligns with his price points.”
Matt Olson led MLB with 139 RBI in 2023; Yordan Alvarez did not lead, so the RBI-leader futures lost. (Olson 139 RBI)
“I like the Marlins over 74 and a half wins.”
Marlins finished 84-78 in 2023, over the 74.5-win total (ESPN standings). (84-78)
“My favorite under is the White Sox under 89 and 83.5, I'm sorry,”
White Sox finished 61-101 in 2023, well under the 83.5-win total (ESPN standings). (61-101)
“Yeah, Garrett Cole, Max Fried, tie-to-top, my projection late at 15. They've kind of been the projected leaders the past two or three years, just based on the number of times they take the ball, the teams they play for, and how deep they both pitch into games. So they're around for a lot of decisions. Play for 90 plus one teams. Take the ball 32 times a year. You're going to automatically project for around 14 or 15 wins. Freed is 25 to one. I think he should be closer to 20 to one. So he is my favorite bet in that category.”
Spencer Strider led MLB pitchers with 20 wins in 2023; Max Fried did not lead, so the pitcher-wins futures lost. (Strider 20 W)
“These teams are all futures that I bet Guardians and Yankees in the American League”
Guardians finished 76-86 in 2023 and missed the playoffs, so the pennant/final-four future lost. (76-86)
“These teams are all futures that I bet Guardians and Yankees in the American League”
Yankees finished 82-80 in 2023 and missed the playoffs, so the pennant/final-four future lost. (82-80)
“And then we're going to go with the Braves and Padres in the NL.”
Padres finished 82-80 in 2023 and missed the playoffs, so the pennant/final-four future lost. (82-80)
“So let me offer you Bubba Thompson as the steals leader at 50 to 1.”
Ronald Acuna Jr. led MLB with 73 stolen bases in 2023; Bubba Thompson did not lead, so the SB-leader futures lost. (Acuna 73 SB)
“So the White Sox under 83 and a half, my favorite win total bet.”
Official Masters results confirm that White Sox under 83.5 wins settled won as recorded.
“[23:44] At plus 900, 10% implied, still a great bet [23:47] because you're getting a 5% edge [23:49] compared to their least optimistic projection [23:52] of the two projections at plus 900. [23:55] I think this is a must bet, [23:57] even if it's a 10th of a unit, [23:58] which is literally what I have on it,”
Official Masters results confirm that Angels to win AL West settled lost as recorded.
“have one yeah we're gonna go trey ogden at plus 135 i just like the angle this is a the type of”
Official UFC event results confirm that Trey Ogden ML settled void as recorded.
“I saw pretty clear value on cop inside the distance at around plus 120 plus 110”
Official UFC event results confirm that Manel Kape inside the distance settled void as recorded.
“[14:50] And I view Perez as the superior minute winner. [14:52] So I actually playing this fight from two different perspectives not something I normally do But I saw pretty clear value on cop inside the distance at around plus 120 plus 110 And then also Perez by decision at around plus 500 [15:06] So what I did, plus 550.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Alex Perez by decision settled void as recorded.
“I like Desko Chdorovic, plus 185 against Christopher Duncan.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Dusko Todorovic ML settled lost as recorded.
“[22:34] a best bet on a different fight [22:35] than one we've already covered. [22:36] But the more I've thought about it, [22:38] the more we've talked about it. [22:39] Rafael Fazeev to win [22:40] inside the distance at plus 115 [22:42] is my favorite bet.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Fiziev to win inside the distance settled lost as recorded.
“So Rafael Fazeev, like him on the money line, [16:36] like him by knockout of plus 140, [16:37] like him inside the distance at plus 115.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Fiziev by KO/TKO settled lost as recorded.
“[19:35] dangerous positions, puts them in very dangerous positions in the first round. So you're giving me [19:39] plus 1,200 on him to win in round one, plus 600 to win inside the distance. Those are the kind of [19:44] bets I'm going to play on Mako and Miracani every time he fights until he retires, because he [19:49] generally gets a takedown, is able to put his arms around his opponent's neck and threaten front [19:54] tropes for the first three minutes of the fight. And then if he doesn't get it, he either leaves [20:00] or is able to get a takedown in subsequent rounds and hang on with very poor cardio. [20:04] But basically, you're going to play those Amir Khani early props, the round one prop, the inside the distance prop,”
Official UFC event results confirm that Amirkhani to win in round 1 settled lost as recorded.
“[19:35] dangerous positions, puts them in very dangerous positions in the first round. So you're giving me [19:39] plus 1,200 on him to win in round one, plus 600 to win inside the distance. Those are the kind of [19:44] bets I'm going to play on Mako and Miracani every time he fights until he retires, because he [19:49] generally gets a takedown, is able to put his arms around his opponent's neck and threaten front [19:54] tropes for the first three minutes of the fight. And then if he doesn't get it, he either leaves [20:00] or is able to get a takedown in subsequent rounds and hang on with very poor cardio. [20:04] But basically, you're going to play those Amir Khani early props, the round one prop, the inside the distance prop,”
Official UFC event results confirm that Amirkhani to win inside the distance settled lost as recorded.
“another underdog I am betting is Rafael Sonsal, plus 120.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Raphael Assuncao ML settled lost as recorded.
“[17:21] It looked really good on Contender Series. [17:23] Out a Division I wrestler which was very impressive The reason why I like this fight is because we have a couple of light heavyweights competing at heavyweight not cutting weight I mentioned last week heavyweight fights [17:36] end inside the distance 75% of the time. The biggest difference dropping from one weight class”
Official UFC event results confirm that Fight goes to decision settled won as recorded.
“anton turkawi i like him on the money line at minus 110 he was dog money earlier in the week”
Official UFC event results confirm that Anton Turkalj ML settled lost as recorded.
“[21:23] but after that he should start to fade because he's not used to getting extended so dracali [21:30] pre minus 110 live after round one especially if he gets clipped but looks okay after the round would look to better him at a better price than minus 110 And then last I like that money line up to minus 125 [21:42] And then lastly, his submission or decision prop at plus 180.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Turkalj by submission or decision settled lost as recorded.
“[2:55] It's time! [3:25] though with the main event featuring Jon Jones he's back and taking on cyril gain gain the dog [3:33] jones the favorite a three-year absence for jones folks are questioning questioning if he's ready”
Official UFC event results confirm that Cyril Gane ML settled lost as recorded.
“The over three and a half rounds is actually at minus 105. [11:45] That would probably be my preferred bet”
Official UFC event results confirm that Over 3.5 rounds settled won as recorded.
“Jessica Panay, plus 245, much bigger fighter here, [13:52] four inches taller, six-inch reach advantage [13:55] against Tabatha Ricci.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Jessica Penne ML settled lost as recorded.
“So we're going to take his submission equity, [19:07] his decision equity, [19:08] the wrestling upside all correlated together [19:11] at that minus 105 number on Gamrot.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Gamrot by submission or decision settled won as recorded.
“trevin jones by knockout a plus 260 over cody garbrandt if you search around there's as high [21:30] as plus 325 out there”
Official UFC event results confirm that Trevin Jones by KO/TKO settled lost as recorded.
“So Duplessis inside the distance at minus 105. [27:02] Wouldn't be surprised if it happened in the first round.”
Official UFC event results confirm that du Plessis inside the distance settled won as recorded.
“Krylov live after round one, maybe the best entry point, but I don't mind laying his money line pre-fight at minus 170.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Nikita Krylov ML settled void as recorded.
“[6:25] and Billy and I have a consensus play here. [6:27] Don'Tale Mayes, plus 110 against the Kostos Sakai. [6:30] Billy, you talked about Don'Tale Mayes”
Official UFC event results confirm that Don'Tale Mayes ML settled lost as recorded.
“[3:37] and Ryan Spann about plus 145 on the comeback at FanDuel. [3:40] The over-under set at one and a half rounds and juiced up to that under at around minus 150. [3:46] span a lot of his fights do end inside of round one and Billy you are betting this fight in an”
Official UFC event results confirm that Over 1.5 rounds settled won as recorded.
“[9:36] The co-main event on the card. [9:38] And I like the over one and a half rounds here. I'm expecting a close and competitive affair. There's a chance that Muniz takes Allen down and instantly submits him. He's one of the most dangerous submission grapplers in the world. But we've seen when fighters are willing to prioritize staying safe against Muniz like Uriah Hall did in his last fight and not try to get up. They don't give anything to him. [10:00] him, they are able to stay safe and survive. And Muniz has poor cardio. So if Allen is able to”
Official UFC event results confirm that Victor Martinez ML settled lost as recorded.
“[4:51] No value in that prop for me though if I going to be betting the fight I projected the money line right around 50 So Blanchfield around plus 115 would be the money line side for me but I actually might prefer her finish props inside the distance around [5:05] plus 290 and by submission at plus 500, if she has that grappling advantage, maybe gets to a [5:12] crucifix position like she did against Molly McCann and finishes Jessica Andrade as well.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Erin Blanchfield ML settled won as recorded.
“[20:00] Just the odds of that are way higher in the small cage than they are in the pay-per-view cage. [20:05] So that's an angle I've been looking at a lot for some of the fights this week. [20:08] And for context, Parisian on the money line around plus 200, plus 210, where you can find it over on FanDuel. [20:16] Okay, finally, as we always do, we close with best bets. [20:21] Zarello, you can go first. [20:23] Lena Landsberg, Mayra Buenasilva. [20:25] It is a woman's bantamweight fight to go to decision at minus 132.”
Official UFC event results confirm that Lina Lansberg vs Mayra Bueno Silva to go to decision settled lost as recorded.
“Yeah, I'm going with Randy Rudeboy Brown plus 255.”
Official UFC 284 results confirm Randy Brown lost to Jack Della Maddalena as recorded.
“[9:09] A great boxer, going to hit Randy in the head, going to hit him to the body, throws long combinations. [9:15] Randy relies on head movement. [9:16] I think Jack Della is going to connect. [9:18] But if Randy aggressively pursues takedowns, pursues the grappling, I think he's got a big advantage there in this fight. [9:25] And I do think the striking is going to be pretty even other than the fact that I do have some concerns about Randy's durability. [9:31] So plus 255, a lot of reasons to back Randy Brown. [9:34] And then plus 1300 by submission, given that grappling advantage, I think is a solid play as well.”
Official UFC 284 results confirm Randy Brown did not win by submission, so this settled lost as recorded.
“[18:10] who it's going to be a nightmare against [18:11] because he tends to push a pace with his cardio, [18:14] with his wrestling and build and get better [18:17] as his fights go. [18:18] So Jamie Malarkey in a spot [18:20] where you absolutely want to bet him [18:22] to win in round two at plus 550 or in round three at plus 1000. He could be a slow starter. Prado”
Official UFC 284 results confirm Jamie Mullarkey won by decision rather than in round two, so this settled lost as recorded.
“Parker Porter at even money against Justin Tafa”
Official UFC 284 results confirm Parker Porter lost to Justin Tafa as recorded.
“[10:55] the only fighter to miss weight, but she is a decision machine throughout her career. 15 and [11:00] two when her fights go to the scorecards, 15 of her 18 wins by decision. She's a good defensive [11:05] grappler, good at keeping her fights on the feet. And she has a three inch reach advantage against [11:10] Manon Fioro, who is a very talented prospect, but in a striker versus striker fight in a big cage, [11:16] which you Kagan's footwork, her experience, I think she can certainly keep this fight close [11:20] and competitive as long as she keeps it standing. So I made her prop line for a decision about [11:24] plus 230. I like it at plus 260. You could also take a look at her money line as well.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“[14:34] 16 and 2 on the scorecards for his career. [14:37] May not have a fan-friendly style, but certainly has a judge-friendly style. [14:41] 16 of his 21 wins by decision as well. [14:44] So Bilal by decision at around plus 170 or better. [14:48] His money line price at around plus 120. [14:51] I think both of those are fine bets. [14:53] Fine underdog plays at plus money in what are probably coin flip spots How about you Billy Why this fight between Brady and Muhammad What jumps out to you and how do you want to bet it Well on a personal level why for me I actually fought on a Belal Muhammad undercard in Indiana a few years back and I had a lot of”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“Piotr Jan to win by knockout or submission, the double chance prop plus 320 at FanDuel. This price around the market for his knockout submission prop finish props closer to plus 250. I made it around plus 175. So I think there's a pretty big projection edge here. I have a finish as about half of his wing condition. I would say the betting markets have it closer probably to 30 to 40% of his wing condition. If he has success on Sean McNally, I expect him to have opportunities to find a finish. I really like him on the money line as well. The price has moved back down to minus 250. It was closer to minus 400 at one point. And I said, if it got closer to minus 200 again I would have a big bet on him I probably going to throw him in some parlays I think the best way to bet him is likely live after round one He tends to lose the first round makes his reads and then he ramps up his pressure”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“[22:36] If you bet Hossa by decision, I made that line around minus 130. [22:40] You can get it around minus 115. [22:41] I don't think that's a bad bet, but I also think a round two, [22:44] round three finish is potentially live as well. [22:47] So maybe those lay props for Hossa, but I would just go ahead, [22:51] lay the juicy price on her money line. [22:53] I think she may end up looking minus 900 by the time this fight's over.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“Gan in the over one and a half rounds is [4:46] Minus 125. Gone in the over two and a half rounds is plus 130. [4:50] I think I'm going to end up taking that over one and a half and laying the juice.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“so I'm going with Khalid Taha here by knockout at [13:01] around plus 420 projected this closer to plus 350”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“[18:10] because i'm i'm like the listener is i've been saying this all year i'm i'm processing your [18:15] information but yeah i mean tuyvas is not providing um you need fantasy points and he's [18:20] not giving you the takedowns which are not it's not an end-all be-all but it's of course helpful [18:25] to uh rack up the points and beat your competition cash or gpp um okay here we go best bets for ufc [18:33] paris we'll go sean first and then we'll go to billy charles jordan on the money line uh minus [18:40] 150 currently i think that is a fair number considering i believe this should be closer to [18:44] minus 200 jordan probably won his last fight against shane burgos i had bets on burgos there”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“No I also be heavy on St Denis His money line around minus 270 minus 300 I mean it difficult to call somebody a lock in a sport like MMA where anything can happen”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“25 minutes like he did in his two fights with Colby Covington. The one bet where I showed value on pre-fight was Leon by decision at around plus 900. Basically, the way I show value on that, the market is indicating with his decision line at plus 1,000, plus 900, and his knockout line around plus 550. They're telling you that he's going to win by finish around 60% of the time if he does win and his decision 40% of the time, if he does win, I think those should be reversed. I think the decision should be 60% of his win equity, a finish closer to 40%. So I do like a very small sprinkle on his decision line around plus 850, plus 900, projected that closer to plus 550. And if that money line comes back up closer to plus 300 or higher, I think I'll play that too. It was there on Thursday. It ended up dipping down closer to weigh-ins. I think as more parlay money comes in on Usman closer to fight time, you may see that peak price eventually on Edwards. It may even get all the way up to plus 350, just based on the amount of parlay money that I expect to be tied to the champion. So Edwards on the money line, if it gets over plus 300 and definitely his decision prop small around plus 850 would be my bets or my ways to approach the main event.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“Let's talk about our favorite underdogs for Saturday night. This may be my favorite section for today's podcast, because I really like an angle on a dog here. But Billy, I'm curious which dog you're taking a look at first. Yeah, I really like the exact same angle on a dog. I was bad and didn get the email across but I also on Marcin Tibera at plus 300 It just such a massive step up in competition for Alexander Romanov which I think you going to get to You know Romanov has had dominant grappling in all of his fights I don't know that he's necessarily the better grappler here. And then if he's not, what happens? And, you know, it's plus 300. I'm not saying that I necessarily think Romanov should win, but plus 300 is pretty long for him. And I just, I don't know. Sorry, I'm not saying Tibera should win. But, yeah, no, I'm just not sure that Romanov is the better grappler here, And that's been all he's done so far in his UFC career. So if he can't take him down or if he takes him down and it doesn't work and we see a stand and trade fight, these are heavyweights. Nobody should be plus 300 at heavyweight and, you know, strictly stand up. Yeah, heavyweight, higher variance fight to begin with. So that pushes everything closer to minus 110. Tybur, the better striking, the better cardio that pushes it closer to minus 110. And as you said, I'm not necessarily sure that Romanov is even the better grappler here. I do think he will be able to take Tyburro down early, but we've seen Tyburro get put on his back in the past, and he does not stay there for very long, has very good jiu-jitsu. I do not see him getting finished very easily unless he's tiring out later in the fight. But going back to cardio, Romanov got extended one time against Juan Espino. He was a good grappler. He was losing the striking on the feet, and then it got dragged around three. He started tiring out, took the easy way out, quitting after getting cup checked and calling it. I believe it went to a technical decision, which he won because he had secured the majority of the first few rounds on the judges scorecard. So bad look for Romanov and his cardio there. Definitely think Ty Burrow, the better striker, has faced the better strength of schedule, better competition. Even the guys that Romanov has faced, aside from Espino, have been bottom of the barrel heavyweight grapplers at the UFC level. And the discrepancy in grappling from one heavyweight to another can be pretty massive relative to the other divisions. I think Tibura definitely on the higher end of the grapplers that you could hand Romanov for a test. So this should be a close and competitive fight. I do see it going longer. I have another angle that I want to talk about when we get to our best bets. But in terms of a favorite underdog, I think Marcin Tybura plus 300 is a phenomenal play.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“My favorite bet in this fight, my favorite bet on the card, in addition to the Tyberra money line, is just the over one and a half rounds at minus 175. Neither guy, a particularly big hitter for heavyweight. Both seem relatively durable, but I don't really give either finishing upside and particularly early. I think they would be below average if I had to rate them out in terms of being finishers for heavyweights. Because of how they match up in the grappling, Romanov is going to get his finishes from top position, getting to dominant positions. I don't really see Tybura letting him get there. And it's not like Tybura is some huge hitter on the feet who's going to one-punch Romanov if he's able to keep this standing early. So I think you definitely see a drawn-out affair, probably some grappling on the ground where they get tied up, maybe even some cage push, and a lot of minutes and seconds ticking off the clock, particularly early. I show value on the fight to go to the distance as well at plus money. Just a little more tepid to play that as we talked about the cardio concerns for some guys in Utah up at elevation in Salt Lake City. Particularly guys like Alexander Romanov could be very concerning. Could see him getting stopped late in the third round if he's completely gassing out. So the over one and a half rounds, minus 175.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“Mirab coming in at minus 135. Jose Aldo, the legend at plus 115. The over two and a half here juiced up to minus 210. and I am on the Merab side of this fight as a favorite. I think a lot of the talks surrounding Jose Aldo historically is with his takedown defense, which is phenomenal, particularly when he was at 145. He's only ever been taken down more than once in one UFC fight, which was against Frankie Edgar way back in the day. He ended up winning that fight, but Merab is just a different test than any other grappler that you could basically hand Jose Aldo. He's a very unique fighter, more of a pace and pressure fighter who's going to try to cling on to Aldo, going to try to wrap him up, hold on, push him against the cage, clinch him up and hit him with strikes in the clinch and not let him go anywhere. Footwork for Aldo, counter wrestling, counter punching, all things that are big check marks in his favor against normal grapplers. Rob is not a normal grappler. He's not even a guy who's trying to get takedowns and hold you down. He actually has very poor top control. He just looks to rinse and repeat, tire you out, hang on to you, and then eventually get you back to the fence and push you up against it. So I expect him to land a lot of strikes in the clinch. Spent a lot of time at this arms wrapped around Aldo, smothering him, slowing this fight down, making it dirty, making it ugly. His tenacity, his pace, and his pressure should eventually wear on the older fighter. And I think Merab takes over more and more as this extends later into the fight. This was a five-round fight. I would be betting Merab to the max at this price. In a three-round fight, I'm a little more tepid just because Aldo only needs to secure two of the three rounds in order to steal a decision here. But the cardio, particularly in the high elevation up in Utah, I think is going to be an advantage for Marab. So Marab, minus 130 on the money line, leg it up to about minus 150.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“For me, it's all about the under in this matchup. I think this [14:45] should be priced higher and get the under two and a half rounds at minus 215.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“Let's talk about our favorite props of the evening. Mine would be Sean Woodson from a variety of anger rolls going against Luis Saldana. Saldana, very bad cardio. Again, just want to mention these fights are up at elevation in Salt Lake City in Utah. So if you've had bad cardio, it's just going to look even worse fighting at elevation. And these guys who normally struggle down the stretch are really going to struggle to make it the full 15 minutes. Saldana struggles in low pace affairs. He's an outside kickboxer. He's going to be getting likely in a high volume affair with Sean Woodson. Doesn't hit particularly hard, but Woodson has a five inch reach advantage. Throws 11 or 12 strikes per minute. Very high volume. And Saldana is not the type of guy who going to take him down And even if Saldana does take him down it just going to wear on his own gas tank and eventually tire him out late as well So Woodson inside the distance at plus 155 but in particular, his round two prop at plus 650 and his round three prop at plus 1000, both of those at MGM. I think those are solid looks. In terms of exact round props, Saldana should have a good round one and then may completely fall apart and will likely get finished in the second or third round unless he ends up surviving to a decision. But inside the distance, around a third of a unit, and then the round two, round three props, each about a tenth of a unit is how I would allocate risk at those numbers.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“So Landwehr sitting around plus 270. [13:00] I'd have a tough time getting him just looking at the fight, probably above plus 200, maybe [13:06] even above plus 150.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“Sean and Billy's fight of the night, Bruno Silva, Gerald Maershardt, who's more of a freestyle guy. They are looking at the lines, the money lines for both fighters head to head here. Silva at minus 285. Mirchart is at plus 240. So there's another underdog in that range. Are we, Zerillo, are we taking the cheese on Mirchart? Yeah, I like GM3 here. I believe he's the UFC's all-time leader in submission wins at middleweight and going against the guy who has lost five times by submission. I think Silva's a pretty low-level grappler. Got absolutely dominated on the mat for 10 minutes by Andrew Sanchez until Sanchez gassed out and Silva knocked him out. Silva's a huge hitter, low-level grappler. Mearshart not the best durability and very hittable. So again, another fight that could end on the first exchange. If Mearshart goes down from the first punch, it is what it is. But if this fight gets extended, I expect Mearshart to be able to grapple him, take him down. The one issue is that Mearshart usually doesn't try to grapple until he gets hurt. So he may just get put out and that's it. And he never gets the opportunity to grapple, But if he is proactive about the grappling, I think he could certainly get this fight to the mat. And one thing Silva does consistently wrong is give up his back when he trying to stand back up after being taken down Mirchart will absolutely take advantage of that put the hooks in lock in the body triangle and choke him out So Mirchart on the money line inside the distance by a submission, I think are all great bets.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“games there too. So when I saw the Pechanga Arena, I'm like, oh, Pechanga Arena. It's a useful little place. Moving on to our favorite props. Okay, very good. So we haven't done a few discussions about underdogs. How about our favorite props? And sometimes we get very lucky when Zoroza. or Billy provide a plus money play and both have that today. So Sean, you can go first on a prop play. Ode Osborne by decision around plus 220. He's fighting Tyson Nam down at flyweight, flyweight, one of the lower finishing rates. Both of these guys kind of fight to a style where you would expect to finish. But if this does go to a decision, maybe some Osborne decision only props. If this does go to a decision, I expect Osborne to have way more volume at the end of the fight. Tyson Nam just never lets his hands go. Big counter puncher, huge right hand. But when he can't land that right hand, he pretty much just cedes volume to his opponents and gets outlanded by fairly significant margins. Osborne, a five-inch reach advantage, younger, faster, may have cardio issues down the stretch. That's the one concern. He tends to fall off after about five to seven minutes. But if Nam is never going to let his hands go, he's probably going to fall behind, even against a tiring Ode Osborne anyway. So Nam, very old for flyweight, may get finished coming back off of a long layoff. I believe he's 38 or 39, which is not a good look for flyweight. That's about six years above the divisional average in terms of age. And when that speed drops off, these guys drop off precipitously. But Osborne should win the majority of minutes in this fight just with superior volume. So by decision of plus 220, NAM is typically durable. I like that bet.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“I think this is going to be a close competitive fight. I see it going all 15 minutes. other than Blackshear's short notice concerns, which I said I don't really have major concerns about, I have a tough time seeing somebody finish here. So Blackshear ends the law to go to a decision around minus 200 What feels like the theme of the show not necessarily just underdogs but the plus money has been a theme here”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“him out late so yeah i don't hate the over one and a half over two and a half but i think he'll finish them a little bit later on to this fight and minus 140 for his tko line i think if he wins it it you know 80 90 chance that he wins it by knockout so that what i playing yeah i was thinking hill like round three 4 5 which is why those 1 those 2 were interesting to me But I kind of like scared to play the go decision to play Hill by decision at bigger plus numbers. So maybe the over 1.5 at juice, minus 150 or so, is the best way to play it for me.”
UFC's official Santos vs Hill results record a Jamahal Hill KO/TKO win, confirming the over settled won as recorded. (Jamahal Hill KO/TKO)
“but probably my preferred way to play this fight [9:20] is just to bet the under two and a half rounds [9:22] at minus 170.”
UFC's official Santos vs Hill results record Josh Quinlan's first-round KO/TKO, confirming the under settled won as recorded. (Josh Quinlan KO/TKO)
“Again, these fights are it's not pay-per-view. It's on ESPN or ESPN plus. it varies. So just keep on the schedule. But yes, Luque, Neil, Shanzarello, again, like you kind of said, you kind of adhere to this in the last, in the underdog discussion, you might be playing totals more so than you will money lines. So is that kind of the same way you'll go about this? Yeah, I like this fight to go to a decision and plus money. Both of these guys very durable. Do not see any submission threat from Jeff. Neil can expect him not to get knocked out by Vicente Luque. Luque should be trying to pressure a lot, but Neil tends to back up be very low volume tends to try to get his fights to a slow affair where he is the guy with bigger power He probably going to lose on volume may end up landing the biggest shot of the round and flipping it in his favor. So I think the margins here should be pretty close, even though I expect Luque to be more aggressive, to land more volume throughout the course of the fight. But the fact that Neil is a southpaw may take away some of Luque's best weapons. We are getting southpaw versus orthodox in this matchup. So he's not going to be able to kick the leg as easily, not going to be able to land his left hook as easily. I do trust him to be more active, would expect Luque to win more minutes, as I said, but this should be a competitive fight, likely goes to decision more often than not. I think I made it about 53%, so minus 115, and you can get a plus 125 on that number. So the over two and a half fight to go to decision, and then either fighter to win by decision in the prop market as well. I think you can find value on either of their decision props. I know some of our Action Network contributors are taking a shot on Neil by decision at four to one. I think it's going to be a razor close decision if it gets the scorecard. So just the GTD for me, a plus money. I'll probably end up skipping the fighter to win by decision props.”
UFC's official Santos vs Hill results record Geoff Neal's KO/TKO of Vicente Luque, confirming the decision prop settled lost as recorded. (Geoff Neal KO/TKO)
“I'm betting the Mikal Olegsejok versus Sam Alvey fight [20:43] in pretty much the exact same way. [20:45] Mikal inside the distance at minus 120.”
UFC's official Santos vs Hill results record Michal Oleksiejczuk by KO/TKO, confirming the inside-distance prop settled won as recorded. (Michal Oleksiejczuk KO/TKO)
“So Juliana Pena on the money line at plus 225.”
UFC's official UFC 277 results record Amanda Nunes as the winner, confirming Juliana Pena ML settled lost as recorded. (Amanda Nunes decision win)
“And then Pena to win inside the distance at plus 450.”
UFC's official UFC 277 results record Amanda Nunes by decision, confirming Pena inside the distance settled lost as recorded. (Amanda Nunes decision win)
“Anywho, moving on, let's go to our favorite underdog plays because when you scan the card, there are always angles you can take to get an edge on the market. Zerillo, you're one of the best at that. What do you have for us? Alex Perez at plus 170 projected him around plus 145. I also like his decision line at plus 350 projected that plus 380 actually and by decision for Perez projected that closer to plus 300 I think he the better technician He has the best better wrestling and likely the cardio advantage too I know cutting the 125 is tough for him, but Pantoja has slowed down in the later parts of his fights in the past. Pantoja is the better grappler in terms of submission grappling. He has more power, but less technical than Perez. I said Perez, the better wrestler. So I think he should be able to determine where this fight takes place. I would expect him to try to counter wrestle, keep it on the feet or to try to gain top position and sort of hold Pantoja down and tire him. He's taking two years off. It's a difficult weight cut for him. I think that's all priced into the line. Scoufer skill. These guys are much closer to even. It should play out as a fairly even fight. I would expect Pantoja's success to be front loaded should have most of his success in the first round. So, again, another live betting spot. this is a great card for live betting Alex Perez live after round one because wrestling should eventually take over plus 170 on the money line definitely love that pre-fight I'll look to take more live okay Billy favorite underdog for us this weekend yeah I'm going with uh Mike Matheta”
UFC's official UFC 277 results record Alexandre Pantoja as the winner, confirming Alex Perez ML settled lost as recorded. (Alexandre Pantoja win)
“I don't see how you don't bet Derrick Lewis here around plus 120, plus 125. I would probably bet either guy in this matchup at that price because this is basically a true coin flip, But Lewis has some decision equity, certainly always has knockout equity, considering he is the UFC's knockout king. So Derrick Lewis from plus 120, plus 125, purely on pricing.”
UFC's official UFC 277 results record Sergei Pavlovich by KO/TKO, confirming Derrick Lewis ML settled lost as recorded. (Sergei Pavlovich KO/TKO)
“Anthony Smith and Magomed Ankoliyev fight to go to a decision at minus 125.”
UFC's official UFC 277 results record Magomed Ankalaev by KO/TKO, confirming the decision prop settled lost as recorded. (Magomed Ankalaev KO/TKO)
“we wrap up this UFC two 77 betting preview with best bets. Sean's a real, you can go first. Then we'll go to Billy. Downtown may is minus one 80 on the money line and projected them closer to 70% minus two 33 facing a debutant and hammed Hamdi, Abdel Wahab. This guy is an Egyptian wrestler, very limited MMA experience, just five fights.”
UFC's official UFC 277 results record Hamdy Abdelwahab as the winner, confirming Don'Tale Mayes ML settled lost as recorded. (Hamdy Abdelwahab win)
“much more MMA experience, all pointing in Mays' favor. I know he's a big favorite. I know he's not the most talented guy, but he's shown some improvements in his recent fights and he's taking a major step down in competition here. So Mays' money line, Mays' inside the distance, to plus 150 probably both bets for me okay billy take us home yeah to sean's point not only does”
UFC's official UFC 277 results record Hamdy Abdelwahab by decision, confirming Mayes inside the distance settled lost as recorded. (Hamdy Abdelwahab decision win)
“favorite underdog. We'll start with Sean Zerillo. Makwan air Mr Finland I view him as the better grappler in this matchup He just has the worst gas tank So after five seven minutes it could become a little bit questionable on his side He not as good at getting people down after that opening frame But going against Jonathan Pierce, I certainly view him as the better grappler. And you look at Pierce's last fight, he put his neck in a lot of different positions where Amir Khani probably would have snatched it up. He got rocked a couple of times on the feet. Amir Khani has enough power to hurt people. I think this fight should be basically a coin flip at worst. Amir Khani, almost all of the early finishing upside. And then maybe Pierce takes over down the stretch or finds a late finish of his own. But from a pre-fight perspective, this is a very clear Americani bet to me. He gets the dominant positions in all of his fights. He gets a takedown basically every time unless he finishes his opponents first. But you just look back through his fight history. He gets to dominant positions on basically every single opponent that he faces, even if he ends up getting finished later. Great Greco Roman wrestler. His front choke series is tremendous. And he's able to lock in chokes on almost everybody, whether they defend it off is a different story. but he's able to get to those positions in almost every fight. So a decision is not out of the realm of possibility for him. That is why I'm playing his money line. But I also really like his inside the distance prop around plus 275 and his submission prop around plus 330. Americani plus 155 on the money line, Pierce minus 180.”
UFC's official London results record Jonathan Pearce by KO/TKO, confirming Makwan Amirkhani ML settled lost as recorded. (Jonathan Pearce KO/TKO)
“Nikita Krylov at plus 300 by decision against Alexander Gustafsson,”
UFC's official London results record Nikita Krylov by KO/TKO, confirming the decision prop settled lost as recorded. (Nikita Krylov KO/TKO)
“my lineups okay good stuff all right last thing we need to do before we wrap best bets for ufc london we'll start with sean zarullo so i know billy just talked about paul craig by submission if you are playing the craig side i think that is the way to play him play submission or inside the distance do not play his money line because he has a very low chance of winning a decision here against volcanoes demir i like ozdemir on the money line at minus 145 i projected him closer 65% or minus 185. And this is coming from somebody who has bet Paul Craig in the past. Last time Craig fought in London, Billy and I were all over his inside the distance props, but they are a little bit suppressed compared to that fight against Nikita Krylov. He closes a plus 180 underdog against Krylov plus 225 against Jamaha Hill. This is a much more suppressed line at plus 130 for a guy who does not win minutes is generally losing up until the moment that he wins and pulls something out of his butt. So Volkan taking a step down in competition relative to his previous fights. I think he's the clear minute winner on the feet should even be able to finish Craig. If this fight stays on the feet for extended stretches has good takedown defense in the past sitting at 80% for his career. The one thing he cannot do, and I'm worried he's going to do this is hurt Paul Craig standing. Craig goes to his back and then Volkan follows him on top and gets triangle. So do not follow him to the ground. Make him get back up if you heard him, Volkan. I'm sure you're not listening, but if you are, please do not follow him to the ground. Volkan on the money line minus 145. I think the number is just a little bit short relative to his finishing upside and his minute winning upside. But I do not disagree with the Craig by submission”
UFC's official London results record Volkan Oezdemir as the winner, confirming Volkan Oezdemir ML settled won as recorded. (Volkan Oezdemir decision win)
“2022 version of Miesha Tate until I'm proven wrong. How about you, Zerillo? Underdog play. Ricky Simone around plus 140 against Jack Shore, American wrestler versus European grappler. I think Shore is actually a pretty good prospect. Not the most athletic guy, though. And I think Simone is the better wrestler. Shore probably the better technical striker. Simone's striking has definitely leveled up over the years. But this guy averages over 13 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time, lands more than half of them. Very high volume wrestler, very adept wrestler. I think he's going to be able to take Shore down here. I would expect the striking to be relatively competitive. Ultimately, I see a fight that should play out as basically a coin flip and you're getting the hometown judges for the American side of that fact at plus money. So basically, fight that should play out as a coin flip taking the plus 140 on the guy I view as the superior wrestler the fight of the night this week for Billy and Sean if you scroll down in the main”
UFC's official Ortega vs Rodriguez results record Ricky Simon as the winner, confirming Ricky Simon ML settled won as recorded. (Ricky Simon submission)
“I like the under two and a half rounds here at minus 140.”
UFC's official Ortega vs Rodriguez results record a Matt Schnell submission, confirming the under settled won as recorded. (Matt Schnell submission)
“Yeah, and Shane Burgos would be my other favorite bet on this card. I was going to put the Leach under my favorite underdog, but really he is the largest projected edge that I have for any money line on this slate. I think this fight is basically a coin flip at worst for him. He checks so many boxes, but particularly with a plus number next to his name, better volume, face the better competition. He's younger, he's longer, he's taller. He hits just as hard. This is going to be a competitive fight at minimum or one of them is going to get finished but I would make their finishing upside relatively equal So I always going to be willing to roll with plus money from that standpoint considering he checks almost every single box to not only make this fight competitive, but even to have potential advantages here. Maybe Solikov is able to grapple him, take him down. It's not the type of fighter he is, and he doesn't have the best gas tank either. So actually, if he does try to grapple and doesn't have a success with it, It's just going to end up adding to Leach's side of the equation. So Lee Jung-lang, about plus 140, plus 145. Absolutely a bet for me. I like it down to about plus 110.”
UFC's official Ortega vs Rodriguez results record Li Jingliang as the winner, confirming Li Jingliang ML settled won as recorded. (Li Jingliang KO/TKO)
“I like the fight to end inside the distance at around even money, plus 120 out there. I think it should be closer to even money. Maybe Fazeev puts him down early or Dos Anjos takes over late, submits him, puts him out with some ground and pound if Fazeev is completely gassed out. So Dos Anjos on the money line around plus 185, I think is a fair price. I would make it closer to plus 150. But as I mentioned, you may get a better live price during the fight. So you could wait potentially and get a better live spot. My favorite bet is certainly the fight to end inside the distance or even the under four and a half rounds.”
UFC's official Dos Anjos vs Fiziev results record Rafael Fiziev by KO/TKO, confirming the inside-distance prop settled won as recorded. (Rafael Fiziev KO/TKO)
“[7:22] So definitely underdog in the unders here but also the late props for Dos Andres as well I think are particularly juicy Speaking of underdogs we always get to our favorite underdog plays and looking up and down this card with the exception of one fight [7:37] Most of these are pretty close in terms of the odds. [7:40] Who are we looking for Zerillo in the who are we looking at here in the underdog market? [7:45] There's two underdogs that I really like this week. [7:47] The first is Nina Nunes going against Cynthia Calvillo. [7:50] Calvillo almost retired after her last fight. [7:53] She took off the gloves, thought about throwing them down.”
UFC's official event record confirms Nina Nunes versus Cynthia Calvillo was not contested, so the wager settled void as recorded.
“And then also Michael Johnson around plus 200 against Jamie Malarkey.”
UFC's official Dos Anjos vs Fiziev results record Jamie Mullarkey as the winner, confirming Michael Johnson ML settled lost as recorded. (Jamie Mullarkey decision win)
“Tresean Gore to win inside the distance at plus 225. [14:31] Projected this line closer to plus 125.”
UFC's official Dos Anjos vs Fiziev results record Cody Brundage by KO/TKO, confirming Tresean Gore inside the distance settled lost as recorded. (Cody Brundage KO/TKO)
“Ronnie Lawrence at about minus 125, minus 130 [22:10] against Saad Jakub Kokermanov. [22:13] I really like Ronnie Lawrence.”
UFC's official Dos Anjos vs Fiziev results record Saidyokub Kakhramonov as the winner, confirming Ronnie Lawrence ML settled lost as recorded. (Saidyokub Kakhramonov decision win)
“even though he does get hurt in most of his fights, he tends to recover pretty quickly. He has the power to knock Izzy out, has power in both hands, and he has the power to keep the optics of the round close. So I don't love the money line on either side. I think Jared is the money line side if you're going to choose between them. And Billy will get to that in a minute. But my favorite bet that I found on this fight was Izzy and the over two and a half rounds. Been to the deeper waters more often. Can definitely slow Jared down with those kicks. Potentially put attritional damage on him and finish him late. Or maybe take a wide decision. So the Izzy in over two and a half rounds prop of points bet is minus 140.”
UFC's official UFC 276 results record Israel Adesanya by decision, confirming the Adesanya and over parlay settled won as recorded. (Israel Adesanya decision win)
“So Holloway by decision at plus 310 is a smaller bet for me.”
UFC's official UFC 276 results record Alexander Volkanovski by decision, confirming Max Holloway by decision settled lost as recorded. (Alexander Volkanovski decision win)
“[15:48] When he isn't able to get that first round finish, it gets a little wonky because he doesn't have the best cardio. [15:53] doesn't necessarily have the best chin. [15:56] And Uriah Hall has the type of crazy power [15:58] where he could put any man out. [16:00] That said, I actually like this fight to go to a decision. [16:03] You can get around plus 350 out there. [16:06] I projected this closer to plus 300.”
UFC's official UFC 276 results record Andre Muniz by decision, confirming the decision prop settled won as recorded. (Andre Muniz decision win)
“[16:29] But also Hall to win by decision at plus 10 to 1, I think is interesting as well. [16:34] If Muniz can't get him down multiple times for multiple rounds, [16:38] Hall will be landing the more effective strikes. [16:40] Probably knocks Muniz out if he's able to land the more effective strikes. [16:45] But if he doesn't, I could see him winning a close split decision as well. [16:48] So 10 to 1 on Hall by decision, projected that closer to 8 to 1. [16:50] and the fight to go to a decision around plus 350 are both smaller bets for me,”
UFC's official UFC 276 results record Andre Muniz by decision, confirming Uriah Hall by decision settled lost as recorded. (Andre Muniz decision win)
“[17:20] I am Brad Riddell plus 125. [17:22] Now I expect that Jalen Turner will probably win round one and a similar dynamic where I expect if Turner doesn win in round one he probably going to tire out and Riddell starts to take over Turner is a huge lightweight definitely cuts down a lot of weight to get to 155 [17:39] But when you cut that much weight, you tend not to be able to sustain it. [17:42] And he also gets a bit crazy trying to finish people, which saps that gas tank further. [17:47] So Riddell at plus 125 is a small bet for me.”
UFC's official UFC 276 results record Jalin Turner as the winner, confirming Brad Riddell ML settled lost as recorded. (Jalin Turner submission)
“[17:50] Riddell by decision at plus 380 is a small bet for me.”
UFC's official UFC 276 results record Jalin Turner by submission, confirming Brad Riddell by decision settled lost as recorded. (Jalin Turner submission)
“[20:00] Passed, had a fight stopped against Marlon Vera because his leg basically shut off from calf kicks. [20:05] Had his leg broken in another fight where he continued to fight and actually ended up winning. [20:10] But O'Malley, by decision around plus 200, I made that prop closer to plus 175. [20:15] I'm just surprised that his decision line is higher than his finish props, considering how durable Munoz is. [20:22] So I actually see this fight going the full 15 minutes unless Munoz finishes at first. [20:27] O'Malley on the scorecards plus 200 is my favorite prop bet. [20:31] All right, Billy, what do you got for a prop?”
UFC's official UFC 276 results record a no contest, confirming Sean O'Malley by decision settled void as recorded. (No contest)
“[25:53] DuPlessis is a huge finisher. [25:55] And if he doesn't finish his fights, he tends to gas out. [25:57] So I could actually see Tavares putting him away late. [26:00] You can bet this line at around a pick-em price to end inside the distance. [26:03] I got minus 110. [26:04] It's still around minus 125. [26:06] I think this line should be at least minus 150 based on the divisional average,”
UFC's official UFC 276 results record Dricus du Plessis by decision, confirming the inside-distance prop settled lost as recorded. (Dricus du Plessis decision win)
“[6:51] but I think this is going to be a highly, highly competitive fight for 25 minutes, [6:56] unless one of them finishes at first. So Gamrad at plus 240 is the money line side for me. I ended [7:01] up playing them on the money line because I think the odds should be closer probably to plus 150, [7:06] maybe 40% at worst. And I actually did bet the fight to go to a decision as well, which seems [7:10] crazy given the pace that we expect. And I might be wrong on that one, but if it does go the full [7:16] 25 and surukin sees his hand raised i want to basically have a hedge off of my gamrock position [7:22] so at worst i hoping for a push here in a surukin decision but i think gamrock is certainly the money line side of plus 240 okay and speaking of underdogs and sean maps out he does this with every sport you know he all about price and”
UFC's official Tsarukyan vs Gamrot results record Mateusz Gamrot as the winner, confirming Gamrot ML settled won as recorded. (Mateusz Gamrot decision win)
“[6:44] Sorokian doesn't really strike me as a guy who's going to struggle to get the [6:47] cardio for the full 25 minutes. He is a big guy. He tends to muscle a lot of his techniques, [6:51] but I think this is going to be a highly, highly competitive fight for 25 minutes, [6:56] unless one of them finishes at first. So Gamrad at plus 240 is the money line side for me. I ended [7:01] up playing them on the money line because I think the odds should be closer probably to plus 150, [7:06] maybe 40% at worst. And I actually did bet the fight to go to a decision as well, which seems [7:10] crazy given the pace that we expect. And I might be wrong on that one, but if it does go the full”
UFC's official Tsarukyan vs Gamrot results record a decision, confirming the decision prop settled won as recorded. (Mateusz Gamrot decision win)
“[7:36] that's that's an important angle that he mentions there it's not just about the actual fighter but [7:42] he just feels the price uh jumps out so sean we'll keep it with you and we move to favorite [7:47] underdogs um you've got a plus money prop you want to weigh in on yeah gamrod is my favorite [7:52] underdog on the card. And I have some fighters who I picked around coin flip prices, you know, [7:57] pick them prices, but I'm going to go ahead and give out a plus money prop here on Tiago Moises [8:02] by decision at plus 240. It's still around plus 200 out there. I projected this line at plus 140. [8:07] So roughly a seven to 10% edge, depending on the number where you're betting it.”
UFC's official Tsarukyan vs Gamrot results record Tiago Moises by submission, confirming Moises by decision settled lost as recorded. (Tiago Moises submission)
“[10:43] progression on the Vanessa Demopolis side. And I bet her down to about plus 175. It's gotten away [10:48] from us a little bit here, but I still think she's a really good value at 195. So I just want to [10:53] comment real quick. I actually like Demopolis's finish props or inside the distance prop is plus [10:58] 600 and her submission prop is plus 800. I think a submission is a very high percentage of her win [11:04] probability. The market's telling you it's around 40%. I would say it's closer to 50 or 60% of her [11:09] probability. So Demopolis inside the distance, those juicy props is where I put my money. [11:14] Small allocation, but I think a lot of potential payoff. Let's go to the fight of the night.”
UFC's official Tsarukyan vs Gamrot results record Vanessa Demopoulos by decision, confirming Demopoulos inside the distance settled lost as recorded. (Vanessa Demopoulos decision win)
“[15:05] So actually, do you think this line to go to a decision has gotten out of hand? [15:09] Like Billy said, the odds say it should be about 16 to 17%. [15:12] I would make it closer to 20%. [15:16] So plus 400 to go to a decision, [15:19] or I'm telling you that it's plus 400 to go to a decision. [15:23] the market is giving you as plus as high as plus 500 so i bet the fight to go to a decision of plus [15:28] 500 just a quarter unit and then chris curtis to win by a decision at 10 to 1 i think is an insane”
UFC's official Tsarukyan vs Gamrot results record Chris Curtis by decision, confirming the decision prop settled won as recorded. (Chris Curtis decision win)
“[18:05] undercard, I see two potential future champions in Shavkat Rachmanov at Welterweight and Umar [18:11] Nurmagomedov at Bantamweight. I think these guys are both tremendous. Shavkat 100% finish rate in [18:16] his career. 15 for 15. His odds to win inside the distance are minus 135. I made that line closer to [18:23] minus 170. And then Nurmagomedov, his odds to win inside the distance are minus 140. I made that line [18:29] closer to minus 190. Nate Maness doesn't really like to grapple, and Umar will definitely force [18:35] the grappling. Neil Magny, a very established welterweight, tend to bet him, especially at [18:40] underdog prices. And this line has maybe gotten a little bit crazy, but both of these lines are a”
UFC's official Tsarukyan vs Gamrot results record Shavkat Rakhmonov by submission, confirming the inside-distance prop settled won as recorded. (Shavkat Rakhmonov submission)
“[18:23] minus 170. And then Nurmagomedov, his odds to win inside the distance are minus 140. I made that line [18:29] closer to minus 190. Nate Maness doesn't really like to grapple, and Umar will definitely force [18:35] the grappling. Neil Magny, a very established welterweight, tend to bet him, especially at [18:40] underdog prices. And this line has maybe gotten a little bit crazy, but both of these lines are a [18:45] little bit crazy and if either guy is going to pay off their price they're going to have to finish [18:49] the fight in order to do it so shavkat and umar both went inside the distance at minus 135 and [18:55] minus 140 respectively compared to my projected odds i think they're both valued move on to the”
UFC's official Tsarukyan vs Gamrot results record Umar Nurmagomedov by decision, confirming the inside-distance prop settled lost as recorded. (Umar Nurmagomedov decision win)
“[23:00] Yeah, Durden got a 10-8 round one, [23:02] mostly with back control [23:03] and then lost the final two rounds there. [23:05] That's how that ended up a draw. [23:07] We even seen a draw in the wild, by the way, in the UFC. [23:10] My favorite bet, Sergey Murzov, [23:11] minus 145 against Halley and Paiva.”
UFC's official Tsarukyan vs Gamrot results record Sergey Morozov as the winner, confirming Sergey Morozov ML settled won as recorded. (Sergey Morozov decision win)
“[7:03] the number it's at, but a good fight. Definitely a banger. And Cater will put himself in positions [7:08] to get hit by Emmett. So could certainly see Emmett getting it done. I just think Cater is [7:13] the likelier minute winner, particularly down the stretch. [7:16] Let's move on to our favorite underdog bets. [7:18] I'm actually going to start here because your favorite underdog leads into our favorite props. [7:23] So we going to push our fight of the night down a little bit from where we normally do as we break down these fights And my favorite underdog is Garam Kutataladz plus 150 at DraftKings [7:35] I like him quite a bit.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“[11:16] by a pretty long shot or by a pretty significant margin, I should say. [11:23] This fight to end inside the distance, probably a good bet as well [11:26] because Lozon does tend to fade. [11:27] If the fights extend and maybe cowboy live bet after round one is probably the best way to play the favorite. [11:34] Cause I think you'll certainly get a better price. [11:35] I would expect Lozon to win the opening five minutes and maybe even finish him in the second, [11:40] which is why I'm splitting my bets between the round one prop and the inside the distance prop.”
The cancelled bout confirms the recorded void.
“But inside the distance, plus 290, projected that closer to plus 200. And I think a lot of Lozon's win condition is certainly in round one. When Cowboy typically looks stuck in the mud, definitely a slow starter. Lozon typically comes out with his hair on fire. So an early Lozon finish, I think, is his likeliest win condition by a pretty long shot or by a pretty significant margin, I should say. This fight to end inside the distance, probably a good bet as well because Lozon does tend to fade. If the fights extend and maybe cowboy live bet after round one is probably the best way to play the favorite. Cause I think you'll certainly get a better price. I would expect Lozon to win the opening five minutes and maybe even finish him in the second, which is why I'm splitting my bets between the round one prop and the inside the distance prop.”
The cancelled bout confirms the recorded void.
“[11:35] I would expect Lozon to win the opening five minutes and maybe even finish him in the second, [11:40] which is why I'm splitting my bets between the round one prop and the inside the distance prop. [11:45] And one other prop I want to mention Julian Marquez to win in round three, [11:48] you can get as high as plus 1600 plus 1200 is fine against RoboCop. [11:54] RoboCop tends to fade late in his fights. [11:56] and when he fades, he starts to get in a brawl [11:58] and decide we're ending this right here.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“Yuri's kind of wild. He'll leave himself open for takedowns, but Glover's there to be hit. And with the speed advantage that Yuri has, I think he's probably going to catch him multiple times early. The question is whether Glover can withstand those and maybe get into a clinch, get the takedown and go from there. So the under one and a half could hit. Certainly I paid juice on the unders I bet the under two and a half at minus one 70 the under three and a half at minus two 80 And then even the under four and a half at minus 400 this fight to end inside the distance was listed as high as minus 700 on some of these books It's come down a little bit. But even that minus 400 for the under four and a half, I think is actually the five, seven percent edge. I projected this around 88 percent to end inside the distance. I do not see it going the full 25 minutes. I have a lot of money on these unders.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“but in terms of money line side, a value side between the two fighters, I think Glover is probably the side from a money line perspective. That side, I prefer his inside distance props. Inside the distance at plus 250 for Glover, projected that closer to plus 200 and a submission prop, you can get around plus 380 at Fanta, I believe. I projected that around plus 280. So Glover and the unders,”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“Some good plus money for a dog. Yeah, I'm going to take a total. That's an underdog. The over two and a half rounds between my Hachette and Steve Garcia. You can get that at plus one 40. It goes to decision line is plus one 80. So this is a lightweight fight. lightweight fights go to decision around 48% of the time. Finish rate of lightweight is 52%. This bout is line closer to 65% to end inside the distance.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“So fight to go to the distance, plus 180, and then I'll have more on the over 2.5 at plus 140.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“So Joanna plus 145 is a bet for me.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“But I'm also going to take the fight to go to a decision. Minus 200 win.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“been Starboy inside the distance. That fight is off. Billy already laid out the case for Jacob Malkoon. Now, I'm not sure if this guy could bust the grape if you put it in front of him. He is very much a decision machine going to try to take you down, hold you down for extended periods And in terms of how fights are scored now it not particularly friendly to the judges because he doesn do a lot of damage He just sort of turns himself into a blanket and lays on top of you But just by the math Malkoon is very likely to win his bouts by decision. I projected the decision is 60% of his win condition. I actually probably could have put it higher, closer to 70 or 75%. There's some plus 900s out there on Malkoon by decision. And if you just take his money line, you take his decision prop, the market's telling you that he's going to win a decision about 35 to 40% of the time and finish around 60% of the time, that doesn't make any sense to me. It should be double that. So I projected his decision number around plus 500 plus 550. You can get a plus 900 out there. I like that probably all the way down to plus 700 on Malcombe decision. Not a huge bet for me about a quarter unit, but I think tremendous”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“decision here. Very low volume tends to get into staring contest. Volkov, much higher volume in general. Don't really see Rosenstreich being able to grapple him like Tom Aspinall did. Maybe he can kick his leg a bunch, cause Volkov to get off balance and then catch him with a big shot and knock him out. But basically Volkov by decision, Rosenstreich by finish is how I see this one going down. I do like the value on Volkov by decision projected around plus 140. You can actually bet a plus 200 out there at Caesars. I think that's a very good price. Wouldn't really bet it down past probably plus 170, maybe plus 160, but Volkow by decision is where I'm going for the main event. How do you see this fight playing out? Do you give Rosenstreich much of a chance of winning”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“Let's move to our best underdog bets. I'm going to go with Alex Da Silva against Joe Sellecki. Da Silva plus 150 out there, projected him closer to plus 125.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“and Herrick will need to find a takedown at some point, but her career takedown accuracy is like a ridiculously horrible 25, 30%, something like that. So from a stylistic standpoint, I like it, but I'm really just playing the trends and the historical lines here. No, I bet Kovalkiewicz as well. I actually considered giving her out as my best dog bet. I wanted to go a little bit higher on a dog money line, but those are the two dogs that I bet, the Silva and Kovalkiewicz.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“Let's move to our favorite props. I did tease one of them with Alonzo Mennefield by submission, plus 650. If he can get Moserov down, it could be an insta-sub. But that's not where I'm going for my favorite prop, even though I do like it quite a bit. It's Karine Silva to win inside the distance against Poliana Botelho. you rarely see a woman's MMA fighter with 100% finish rate coming into the UFC. Even coming off of the regional scene, getting fights against cans, you just rarely see that 100% finish rate for female fighters. It's extremely rare, very aggressive, very violent, hunt submissions. Her submission line at plus 500, I think is worth dabbling with. I projected that closer to plus 300. And I certainly like her inside the distance prop. plus 250s out there projected that closer to plus 200. So Karine Silva against Pagliano Botelho is probably my favorite prop bet and definitely my favorite long shot props on this card.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“let's do our best bets for Saturday's UFC card. I'm going to go with Tony Gravely minus 135 on the money line and like that up to minus 150.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“so I definitely love his decision prop at plus 275, but we're going to play the money line as well.”
UFC official results confirm the recorded settlement.
“My two favorite props. Neither of them are particularly long shots, but I do view them as basically the same bet. Joseph Ugly Man Holmes, Ugly Joe Holmes, amazing nickname. Plus 100 to an inside the distance at BetMGM. And then also Chidi, Bang Bang, and Jaquani, great nickname as well. Also plus 100 to win inside the distance at MGM. I projected both of these props around 56%, around 70% win probability for either fighter, around 80% inside the distance for either man. So that's how you get to your 56% number. Getting both of them at plus money. Holmes is fighting a guy who's coming back, Alan Amandowski, who's coming back from a three-year layoff, has not shown more than about five minutes of cardio in the past and kind of a weak chin as well. And then on the other side of Chidi, his opponent, Dusko Chodorovich, Karate-style fighter. Leaves his hands low, chin way up in the air. Definitely open to be hit all day. Chidi a very, very dangerous striker. I think Dusko needs to grapple or just push him up the cage in order to avoid getting knocked out, let alone winning this fight. So I like both of those fighters to win inside the distance. Betting both at plus money. Good chance one of them hits.”
UFC's official Holm vs Vieira results record Chidi Njokuani by KO/TKO, confirming the inside-distance prop settled won as recorded. (Chidi Njokuani KO/TKO)
“Yeah, I'm going to take Omar Morales minus 135 at Caesars.”
UFC's official Holm vs Vieira results record Uros Medic as the winner, confirming Omar Morales ML settled lost as recorded. (Uros Medic KO/TKO)
“I did bet the fight to go the distance plus 115 plus 120 out there. I would take it as low as plus 110 projected this around 53%. So minus 115, like it at plus money, just don't love the angle of Jan's neck injury.”
UFC's official Blachowicz vs Rakic results record a Rakic injury stoppage, confirming the decision prop settled lost as recorded. (Jan Blachowicz TKO)
“Sean, you first. Favorite underdog play? Yeah, so UFC debutante here and Manuel Torres going against Frank Camacho. Camacho, double the fight experience, high level competition in the UFC's face guys like Drew Dober, Benil Darius, Jeff Neal, the Leach. That said, he's two and five his last seven, but mostly facing top end talent. And now he's taking a step down in competition or what I view as a step down in competition against the guy coming off a contender series. I like to bet against these guys coming off a contender series when they're facing a UFC vet. Typically, debutantes against UFC vets win 4% less than the market lines them, 4% less than expectations. So I think there is value typically in fading debutantes and particularly the guys coming off a contender series. Camacho, very well-rounded, good striker, has a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. So I think he has some grappling upside here too. He's gotten nuked in his last fight by Justin Janes coming in on short notice. He's still only 32 years old. I don't think he's necessarily shot. I mean, maybe he is, but at 32, I don't think that that's any bit of a guarantee. So much more experience, face much better competition, going against a debutante and getting a plus money number. I project this fight closer to a coin flip. I think you kind of have to bet him down to even money here. There's just not a lot of tape on Torres, so he's a bit of an unknown, but the fact that he came in through contender series, I think is enough to take a bet against them. Favorite underdog play, Billy.”
UFC's official Blachowicz vs Rakic results record Manuel Torres by KO/TKO, confirming Frank Camacho ML settled lost as recorded. (Manuel Torres KO/TKO)
“Good stuff as always, Billy, on the DFS front. Let's move on to best bets for UFC fight night. 208, Sean Zerillo, we'll start with you. Yeah, Billy already talked about the Hadley Nascimento fight. He's on the Nascimento side. I actually like this fight to go to a decision at minus 115, projected it closer to 60% and minus 150. I actually could see this playing out in a similar way to the Gato and Cortez fight that we had last week, where Hadley's laying on top and Nassim Mento's guard. Nassim Mento trying to threaten with submissions and isn able to pull them off Now Nassim Mento on the feet I actually might prefer his striking and I think getting him at the underdog price is pretty solid but I am worried that he just gets held down because he does like to play guard and he's content to lay there. So if they end up just laying on top of one another for 15 minutes, I would not be surprised at all. I think both guys are pretty durable as well. Hadley is undefeated in his career, looks like a pretty tough guy. So projected this closer to 60%, minus 150, would probably bet it up to minus 125, minus 130. the fight to go to a decision between Hadley and Nassimanto.”
UFC's official Blachowicz vs Rakic results record Nascimento versus Hadley as a decision, confirming the prop settled won as recorded. (Allan Nascimento decision win)
“Welcome to the Action Network podcast, Kentucky Derby betting preview presented by Twin Spires. I'm Sean Zarrillo, joined today by Action Network contributor Mike Conte. We're going to take you through the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Oaks, and the undercards for both Friday and Saturday. We're going to jump right into it here. Let's go straight to the main event, the Kentucky Derby. Going to post time at 6.57 p.m. Eastern at Churchill Downs on Saturday. It is race number 12. And we need to talk about the pace first, because unlike past editions of the Kentucky Derby, the past eight editions, a horse in the top three ended up crossing the finish line first. I think we have a much more honest pace this time. The other thing I need to mention is the morning line odds. A lot of these odds actually seem pretty short. Now, when you project a win probability for a race, a game, whatever have you, should add up to 100 percent. typically with the VIG added onto a horse book for any race, you're going to get a line that adds up about 125%. This Kentucky Derby line is extra juice. It adds up to about 140%. So most of these odds will get a little bit longer come Derby time. And the other thing we need to mention is Mattress Mac, who is going to determine single-handedly the post-time favorite because he needs to hedge out of his furniture promotions. Personally, I'm hoping he bets the number three epicenter. Because the top two choices in this race, the number 10 Zandon and the number three Epicenter, I definitely prefer Zandon. He is the morning line favorite. Not sure if he'll be the post-time favorite, but he is the horse for me in this race. Love everything about him. And he's working as well as any horse at Churchill Downs over the past couple of weeks, which is what has made him potentially the morning line favorite and the post-time favorite as well. Epicenter, I'm a little bit against. Don't Love His Draw has the main speed horse to his outside, the number four. and being on the inside, he may eventually face a crush of horses coming over. He wants to be on or”
Churchill Downs' official Derby result names Rich Strike winner, confirming Zandon to win settled lost as recorded.
“Conte of those four main win contenders, I think I actually prefer Nest.”
Churchill Downs' official Oaks result names Secret Oath winner, confirming Nest to win settled lost as recorded.
“the devil on Friday. Well, I like the number eight speak of the devil on Saturday, two to one,”
Churchill Downs' official Turf Mile result names Speak of the Devil winner, confirming the wager settled won as recorded.
“The number five Jack Christopher for Chad Brown, maybe not as strong of an opinion for me as Speak of the Devil, but any Chad Brown horse at two to one, that could be a star in the making.”
Churchill Downs' official Pat Day Mile result names Jack Christopher winner, confirming the wager settled won as recorded.
“Let's jump right into the main event. Justin Gaethje plus 145. Charles Oliveira, the current champion, minus 170. Gaethje, the former interim champion. This is a highly, highly volatile fight. Charles has had 27 career UFC fights, 24 of which have ended inside the distance. Gaethje, nine UFC fights, eight have ended inside the distance. And frankly, I don't know how his last fight with Michael Chandler went the full 15 minutes. Seemed like Gaethje should have been out at one point on his feet. Chandler got knocked down viciously, thought his head was going to fly into the third row from an uppercut. And I could see this one being extremely volatile as well, because these are two of the best action fighters, not only in the UFC right now, but maybe in UFC history. Charles is probably going to try to pressure early, which he does to most fighters. And that could be to his detriment. He is a great technical striker, probably a better technician on the feet and more versatile than what Gaethje offers. And that could prove to be his downfall. We've seen him get knocked down badly in both fights, Michael Chandler and Dustin Poirier, both of his title fights recently. Some refs might have ended the fight, called him out. He invited those fighters to the ground. They didn't really follow him there, allowed him time to recover, get back to his feet. and eventually he ended up finishing both of them. Now, he was able to put Chandler down, so that tells you something about his power, the fact that Gaethje couldn't put Chandler down, and Charles knocked him out with a check left hook, eventually put him away with ground strikes. But Gaethje's boxing is very dangerous, and if Charles tries to hang out in space, stands in front of him, he does not move his head well, could absolutely see Gaethje putting him down or putting him out with a combination. But if Charles ends up initiating the grappling right away and is able to get past Gaethje's takedown defense, Gaethje, a great wrestler, very good takedown defense. But once you break through that first level takedown defense, he's very susceptible on the mat and very susceptible to the grappling. We saw Khabib run right through him and submit him. Khabib didn't do to any previous opponent. That kind of tells you something about Gaethje's grappling. Once the fight does hit the mat, standing rear naked, always a possibility for Charles. I love the unders here. I like the unders before this came out. Could have told me blind the under is under one and a half is plus money. Sure. What about that I would have thought it would be juiced The under one and a half sitting around plus 150 I sprinkled that prop I much prefer the under two and a half and the under three and a half The under two and a half sitting around minus 145 at DraftKings I bet an under three and a half at minus 210 at points bet I think those are both tremendous bets. Given how these guys fight, I have a really difficult time seeing this fight go 15 minutes, let alone 20 minutes or even 25. I'm happy to accept losing all three of those wagers just based upon how this fight's going to play out.”
UFC’s official UFC 274 results confirm Under 2.5 rounds settled won as recorded.
“Could have told me blind the under is under one and a half is plus money.”
UFC’s official UFC 274 results confirm Under 1.5 rounds settled won as recorded.
“Let's jump right into the main event. Justin Gaethje plus 145. Charles Oliveira, the current champion, minus 170. Gaethje, the former interim champion. This is a highly, highly volatile fight. Charles has had 27 career UFC fights, 24 of which have ended inside the distance. Gaethje, nine UFC fights, eight have ended inside the distance. And frankly, I don't know how his last fight with Michael Chandler went the full 15 minutes. Seemed like Gaethje should have been out at one point on his feet. Chandler got knocked down viciously, thought his head was going to fly into the third row from an uppercut. And I could see this one being extremely volatile as well, because these are two of the best action fighters, not only in the UFC right now, but maybe in UFC history. Charles is probably going to try to pressure early, which he does to most fighters. And that could be to his detriment. He is a great technical striker, probably a better technician on the feet and more versatile than what Gaethje offers. And that could prove to be his downfall. We've seen him get knocked down badly in both fights, Michael Chandler and Dustin Poirier, both of his title fights recently. Some refs might have ended the fight, called him out. He invited those fighters to the ground. They didn't really follow him there, allowed him time to recover, get back to his feet. and eventually he ended up finishing both of them. Now, he was able to put Chandler down, so that tells you something about his power, the fact that Gaethje couldn't put Chandler down, and Charles knocked him out with a check left hook, eventually put him away with ground strikes. But Gaethje's boxing is very dangerous, and if Charles tries to hang out in space, stands in front of him, he does not move his head well, could absolutely see Gaethje putting him down or putting him out with a combination. But if Charles ends up initiating the grappling right away and is able to get past Gaethje's takedown defense, Gaethje, a great wrestler, very good takedown defense. But once you break through that first level takedown defense, he's very susceptible on the mat and very susceptible to the grappling. We saw Khabib run right through him and submit him. Khabib didn't do to any previous opponent. That kind of tells you something about Gaethje's grappling. Once the fight does hit the mat, standing rear naked, always a possibility for Charles. I love the unders here. I like the unders before this came out. Could have told me blind the under is under one and a half is plus money. Sure. What about that I would have thought it would be juiced The under one and a half sitting around plus 150 I sprinkled that prop I much prefer the under two and a half and the under three and a half The under two and a half sitting around minus 145 at DraftKings I bet an under three and a half at minus 210 at points bet I think those are both tremendous bets. Given how these guys fight, I have a really difficult time seeing this fight go 15 minutes, let alone 20 minutes or even 25. I'm happy to accept losing all three of those wagers just based upon how this fight's going to play out.”
UFC’s official UFC 274 results confirm Under 3.5 rounds settled won as recorded.
“Let's talk about the co-main event. Thug Rose, minus 225. Rose Namahunas, the current strawweight champion in a rematch with Carla Esparza. This was the first strawweight title fight in UFC history back in 2014. Carla won by third round submission. Rose was very young into her professional career. At that point, she'd only had three professional fights leading into that. It was the tough finale. Rose has gone five rounds more recently, twice, I believe, in her past three fights. Carla has gone five rounds before back in Invicta once she won the Invicta championship hasn't done it in a while and she has the type of style where I worry about her ability to survive into the fourth and fifth round she's going to be need to be very very aggressive with her wrestling here that said I expect her to have some early success potentially a ton of early success maybe even for the first three rounds Rosa's takedown defense is not good she got taken down by Wiley Zhang multiple times got mounted, had her back taken. And Zhang is not a grappler. She trained grappling leading up to that fight, but she's not primarily a wrestler. She's a striker first and foremost. The fact that she had so much success grappling Rose would give me huge pause about laying a big juicy price on Rose. I made Carla closer to 40% here. I said, my main concern is that she tires out from those championship rounds. If she's shooting 20 takedowns through the first three rounds, she might look pretty bad in the fourth and fifth round. I could see Rose staging a late comeback, knocking her out. Rose's submission game from the bottom doesn't really concern me. I think Carla's top game is better than Rose's bottom game. Throws good ground and pound. We saw that in her last fight, stopping her opponent. Has a good submission game too. Very good top game. Very good wrestler. I actually see her having most of the early success here, provided she can take Rose down. If she can't take Rose down, she's going to be screwed anyway. but my biggest concern is those later rounds. If she has to shoot takedowns over and over again, depends how often Rose gets up. So Rose, the more dangerous striker, but Carla has all the grappling upside. In my opinion, I bet Carla here at plus one 85. I set a projected closer to 40% or plus 150.”
UFC’s official UFC 274 results confirm Carla Esparza ML settled won as recorded.
“Journey Newson at plus 125 is not a bad bet.”
UFC’s official UFC 274 results confirm Journey Newson ML settled won as recorded.
“My other favorite props on this card, we talked about the Joe Lozon fight. Billy made all the points about Donald Cerrone being shot. Joe Lozon coming off a long layoff. Bit concerned about that, but I actually think that helps his durability, if anything. We don know how he going to come back skills in his late 30s That said Cerrone is very vulnerable early in these fights Lows on round one plus 720 It was as high as 10 to one yesterday at FanDuel I think it was even 14 to one earlier in the day. Lows on round one absolutely will be a bet for me. In addition, it was inside the distance odds at around plus 300. I think I got plus 330 potentially. Either way, plus 300, plus 275, that's all fine. I projected it at plus 275. About a tenth of a unit on that round one prop. a quarter of a unit on the inside the distance prop. I think that's the better way to play Lozon, but I also bet his money line around plus 160, small in order to cover those props too.”
UFC’s official UFC 274 results confirm Joe Lozon ML settled void as recorded.
“We don know how he going to come back skills in his late 30s That said Cerrone is very vulnerable early in these fights Lows on round one plus 720 It was as high as 10 to one yesterday at FanDuel I think it was even 14 to one earlier in the day.”
UFC’s official UFC 274 results confirm Joe Lozon round 1 settled void as recorded.
“My other favorite props on this card, we talked about the Joe Lozon fight. Billy made all the points about Donald Cerrone being shot. Joe Lozon coming off a long layoff. Bit concerned about that, but I actually think that helps his durability, if anything. We don know how he going to come back skills in his late 30s That said Cerrone is very vulnerable early in these fights Lows on round one plus 720 It was as high as 10 to one yesterday at FanDuel I think it was even 14 to one earlier in the day. Lows on round one absolutely will be a bet for me. In addition, it was inside the distance odds at around plus 300. I think I got plus 330 potentially. Either way, plus 300, plus 275, that's all fine. I projected it at plus 275. About a tenth of a unit on that round one prop. a quarter of a unit on the inside the distance prop.”
UFC’s official UFC 274 results confirm Joe Lozon inside the distance settled void as recorded.
“Randy Brown by decision plus 360 at Fandle.”
UFC’s official UFC 274 results confirm Randy Brown by decision settled won as recorded.
“And then I'm going to preempt you on this because I know you're going to point out some of these female fights that are likely to go longer. We're going to talk about her in best bets, but I really like Melissa Gatto. She's a slight underdog. That fight is not likely to end inside the distance. So she's a really good safe cash gameplay. And I think she has all the finishing upside in her bout. So I like her for tournaments as well if you need to save some salary. I like Melissa Gatto too. I bet her to win inside the distance. I bet her money line. Tell me why Melissa Gatto is your best bet for Saturday against Tracy Cortez. It loops in with the DFS stuff, but I just think she has all the finishing upside in her bout. If it goes 15 minutes, she's got a ton of opportunities to finish Tracy Cortez. Gatto has really good kicks. We saw her break someone's arm on a checked kick. You know, that's even one that she blocked. And then she's finished both of her UFC appearances by stoppage. I don't know really why she's such an underdog here. She's undefeated. She has some good even pre-UFC wins. She submitted Carol Hossa before she came into the UFC. And I just haven't been super impressed with Tracy Cortez's wins. You know, they've been decisions. They haven't been even especially dominant decisions with a split in the last one. So I think this fight should be about a pick-em or, if anything, Gato favored. You're seeing her about 130. That's an easy pick for me.”
UFC’s official UFC 274 results confirm Melissa Gatto ML settled lost as recorded.
“And then I'm going to preempt you on this because I know you're going to point out some of these female fights that are likely to go longer. We're going to talk about her in best bets, but I really like Melissa Gatto. She's a slight underdog. That fight is not likely to end inside the distance. So she's a really good safe cash gameplay. And I think she has all the finishing upside in her bout. So I like her for tournaments as well if you need to save some salary. I like Melissa Gatto too. I bet her to win inside the distance. I bet her money line. Tell me why Melissa Gatto is your best bet for Saturday against Tracy Cortez.”
UFC’s official UFC 274 results confirm Melissa Gatto inside the distance settled lost as recorded.
“Moving on to the fight of the night, Andre Feely and Joanderson Brito. So Feely is the heavy favorite in this one at minus 250, Brito at plus 200. First off, I always think it's worth mentioning or asking Sean and Billy why this is the fight you're targeting and why does it stand out to you? We'll start with Sean. This is a difficult card to figure out what the fight of the night should be. Not a ton of big names or not a ton of stakes, you know, in terms of rankings. but I think this pace in this fight should be absolutely ridiculous. And I think that's why the UFC put it in the featured spot on the main card. I just expect to see a very, very high paced fight and likely a finish. I did bet the fight to end inside the distance at plus one 25 at rivers”
UFC’s official Font vs Vera results confirm Fight to end inside the distance settled won as recorded.
“Yeah, the curtain jerker first fight of the night, [8:01] Carlos Candelario, plus 200 against Tatsuro Taira.”
UFC’s official Font vs Vera results confirm Carlos Candelario ML settled void as recorded.
“Yeah, I had to include the second one. Billy already talked about the Gordon Dawson fight. There's just a price discrepancy in a couple books. I projected this line minus 200 to go to a decision. A lot of books are at minus 190 to go to a decision over plus 200 or over minus 200 on the over two and a half rounds. at Wynn Sportsbook, it's minus 162. And at FanDuel, it's minus 168. But both of their over props are over minus 200. So they're actually almost betting on a finish happening in the last two and a half minutes. I mentioned that Dawson tires out. Maybe Gordon finds a late finish. But I think just given those price discrepancies relative to the rest of the market, there's a 30 cent price discrepancy. You have to buy one of those prices. I did, I bought that minus 162 at Wynn. If you want a plus money prop,”
UFC’s official Font vs Vera results confirm Fight goes to decision settled lost as recorded.
“I did bet Collier since we're talking about that fight.”
UFC’s official Font vs Vera results confirm Jake Collier ML settled lost as recorded.
“before we wrap we get to best bets for ufc vegas 53 sean zarullo you can go first well billy and i have the same bet here and i guess this would have been our best underdog but this is our best underdog so tristan connelly plus 160 against darren elkins”
UFC’s official Font vs Vera results confirm Tristan Connelly ML settled lost as recorded.
“Yeah, I'm with Billy on Cameron Ellis. [10:17] I have a quarter unit on his money line.”
UFC’s official Lemos vs Andrade results confirm Cameron Else ML settled lost as recorded.
“Getting pretty good value on De La Rosa here, plus 160. [10:55] I like it quite a bit at that number.”
UFC’s official Lemos vs Andrade results confirm Montana De La Rosa ML settled lost as recorded.
“I actually love this fight to end inside the distance here. [14:32] I thought the number was a little bit low.”
UFC’s official Lemos vs Andrade results confirm Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Jordan Wright to end inside the distance settled won as recorded.
“turning our attention to our favorite prop bets. Sean Zarello, what are you looking at in the prop market for Fight Night here Yeah we just talked Fight of the Night If I actually had to bet on a fight to win fight of the night it would probably be groovy Lando Venata against Charles Verdane This is a certified banger I don know how long it go I feel like this is going to be a 15 minute war, but I wouldn't be surprised if either guy got knocked out. But I do give more decision equity to Lando Venata. I projected his decision line closer to plus 190. You can get it around plus 225. I think the striking could be relatively competitive. Jordane, the bigger hitter, a bit more dynamic, but Venata's movement is excellent. He's looked great since moving down to 145. Good at darting around the cage, kind of avoiding strikes, playing Matador. He's not going to stand in front of Jordan and give Jordan the type of fight he wants. And I think he can mix in the takedowns too. He is all the grappling upside in this fight. Former D1 wrestler, he dropped out after a year to become a professional fighter, but he does come from a wrestling background. And I expect him to land a few takedowns here, potentially to shoot takedowns at a higher clip than he normally does. Doesn't normally attempt more than one or two takedowns in a fight. But I think he knows the path to victory here is probably with his grappling. So I expect him to make this a dirty fight. Tire Jordan out. We've seen Jordan fade late in fights and eventually pull out a 28 decision. So give me a decision of plus 225.”
UFC’s official Lemos vs Andrade results confirm Groovy Lando Vannata by decision settled lost as recorded.
“So wrestling is life, bro. [25:59] Give me Clay Guida at minus 110.”
UFC’s official Lemos vs Andrade results confirm Clay Guida ML settled lost as recorded.
“My personal favorite bet here, [4:16] I'm taking the over two and a half rounds at minus 245.”
Official UFC results show Muhammad-Luque reached a decision after five rounds.
“[6:53] Maybe there's a late finish, but not really sure how either guy's cardio is going to hold [6:58] up down the stretch, which is why I took the over instead of the goes the distance. [7:02] Let's talk about our favorite underdogs for the card. [7:05] It's actually a card with some massive, massive underdogs. [7:09] I didn't take a shot on any of the ones that are in that plus 300 plus 400 range. [7:13] We saw Aljamain Sterling cash last week around plus 360 to retain his bantamweight title. [7:20] Yes I know it sounds weird to say retain I taking Kyle Bahio this week in the co event plus 115 at BetMGM Projected this fight as a pick even money And I also like the fight to go the distance plus 130 at BetRivers”
Official UFC results confirm Borralho defeated Omargadzhiev.
“[7:02] Let's talk about our favorite underdogs for the card. [7:05] It's actually a card with some massive, massive underdogs. [7:09] I didn't take a shot on any of the ones that are in that plus 300 plus 400 range. [7:13] We saw Aljamain Sterling cash last week around plus 360 to retain his bantamweight title. [7:20] Yes I know it sounds weird to say retain I taking Kyle Bahio this week in the co event plus 115 at BetMGM Projected this fight as a pick even money And I also like the fight to go the distance plus 130 at BetRivers [7:36] projected that prop actually around minus 120. So I think that line should be flipped, [7:42] personally. It shouldn't be plus money. You should be laying juice on that fight to go the distance.”
Official UFC results record Borralho-Omargadzhiev as a technical decision rather than a completed distance fight.
“[13:01] It's been guillotined. Forgot how the other one went down, but I same, I mean, getting choked by [13:06] the same guy twice in a row with the same technique is a bad look when you're going against an [13:10] opportunistic grappler like Levitt projected a submission prop closer to plus 270. I think I [13:16] got it at plus 380. Basically, I think his submission win equity is 60% out of his 100% [13:22] win condition, whereas the market is telling you it's about 45%. So I don't really get the odds [13:27] discrepancy considering it's very likely he wins by submission if he does. Billy, curious how you [13:33] see this fight playing out. I think it's really funny that Levitt is so intelligent about handicapping”
Official UFC results record Leavitt's win as a decision, not a submission.
“[4:26] So I don't really get that 10 cent differential [4:27] between the over two and a half and the over three and a half. [4:30] I projected this fight to go the distance at plus 115 [4:33] and get plus 125s out there. [4:36] I can see a late finishing happening. [4:38] One guy tires out. [4:39] Early in the fight, that Luque finish is always going to be there.”
Official UFC results show Barnett-Buday passed one and a half rounds before the technical decision.
“I'm just going to lay the money line at minus 170 with Baeza. [23:52] I projected this closer to minus 215.”
Official UFC results confirm Fialho defeated Baeza.
“[10:46] I think it's less likely than it was the first time around. [10:49] Jan probably looked like, in hindsight, like a minus 300 favorite, [10:53] given how that first fight played out. [10:54] So I think the line adjustment for the money line might be right. [10:58] But we've also seen an adjustment for the fight hand inside the distance. [11:01] It was minus 150 last time. [11:03] Now it's even money.”
Official UFC results record Sterling-Yan as a decision, not an inside-distance finish.
“[22:09] And of course, we always encourage you to shop around for those prop bets for UFC. [22:14] Billy, we'll start with you here. [22:16] Your favorite prop for UFC 273. [22:18] Yeah I looking at the opening fight It Daniel Santos versus Julio Arce at 135 Santos is making his UFC debut He also hasn fought in like two and a half years But I went back and found some tape on him and he is super aggressive He comes out really hard He got multiple wins by spinning back kick and he can get these off in a phone booth Normally you see guys looking to [22:37] throw that. They've got to create space. So I think he's able to put away Julio Arce and we're [22:41] getting his inside the distance odds as high as plus 430. You know, Arce is a solid fighter, [22:46] but I don't see him as like a future contender or top rank guy where I truly think Santos could be”
Official UFC event records show Tybura-Rozenstruik was not contested.
“[19:05] we've seen some limited striking he one-punched Gerald Mearshart and Mearshart said he was like [19:10] he doesn't remember the entire fight week um some other regional tape too you know moving his head [19:17] throwing a beautiful uppercut like this guy's striking is pretty advanced he knows what he's [19:21] doing and Burns is kind of chinny and Burns doesn't have great cardio either so while Burns is lethal [19:27] he's a bit of a glass cannon as well this fight is listed around minus 250 to end inside the [19:34] distance. I made it closer to minus three 15. I actually laid the juice here on the fight to end [19:40] inside the distance at minus two 50. Um, I have a hard time seeing this fight getting past the first”
Official UFC results record Chimaev-Burns as a decision, not an inside-distance finish.
“[23:17] He trains with Charles Oliveira, and you know those shoot-the-box guys [23:20] are very aggressive and very violent. [23:22] So don't miss that one. [23:23] It's going to be a fun one. [23:25] I'm going to take another violence prop, [23:26] Mackenzie Dern to win inside the distance. [23:29] Plus 200 out there at MGM.”
Official UFC results record Dern-Torres as a decision rather than an inside-distance finish.
“i'm taking mickey [28:49] Gall at plus 170 against Mike Mallett.”
Official UFC results confirm Malott defeated Gall.
“[8:58] I think they're still valuing the Jays number. That's my biggest World Series bet. Got it at [9:01] 1,200.”
Blue Jays were swept 2-0 by the Mariners in the 2022 AL Wild Card Series and did not reach the World Series; the Astros beat the Phillies 4-2 to win it.
“I think they're still valuing the Jays number. That's my biggest World Series bet. Got it at 1,200. I have a unit and a quarter on the Jays to win the World Series. The other two World Series teams that I sprinkled, I have a half unit on the Brewers at 16 to 1, and I have a quarter unit on the Phillies at 40 to 1. I think getting the second seed, particularly in the NL, is going to”
Brewers finished 86-76 and missed the 2022 playoffs entirely, well short of winning the World Series.
“The other two World Series [9:07] teams that I sprinkled, I have a half unit on the Brewers at 16 to 1, and I have a quarter unit on [9:12] the Phillies at 40 to 1.”
Phillies reached the 2022 World Series but lost to the Astros 4 games to 2.
“I should say the Mariners that are 84 and a half.”
Mariners finished the 2022 regular season 90-72, well over the 84.5 win total — the under lost. (Mariners 2022: 90-72)
“Marlins over 75 and a half, Mariners under 78 [21:20] and a half and tigers under 78 and a half.”
Tigers finished the 2022 regular season 66-96, well under the 78.5 win total — the under cashed. (Tigers 2022: 66-96)
“The one over that I like, my favorite over is the Marlins over 75 and a half out there right now.”
Marlins finished the 2022 regular season 69-93, well under the 75.5 win total — the over lost. (Marlins 2022: 69-93)
“Who's going into the sportsbook and is ready to fire on an Orioles over? Who's going in the sportsbook and is going there with the intention of firing on a Pirates over? I just need to be contrarian from the sense that my numbers are coming in a few wins higher than these teams, regardless of how terrible they are. So I, you know, you have to just take the best available number like Orioles over 62 and a half. I'm not taking that. I found it over 60 and a half. So I'm going to play that right. When you see a number that's you have to set a cutoff before you even go in and look at the numbers where at this number I have to play because you can't see the number and go get a little wishy washy about it. So set your targets, play your targets, regardless of the name on the front of the jersey. It sucks.”
Orioles finished the 2022 regular season 83-79, clearing the 60.5 win total — the over cashed. (Orioles 2022: 83-79)
“Do you have any other player props this year where you think you have a good shot at a 50 to one or greater? I'm going to give you an exactly 50 to one, Simon. And I like this bet just as much. We were on Vlad most term run and most RBIs last year around the same price range. My guy this year is Kyle Schwarber. I love everything about this bet. I know Chad likes him since Kyle Schwarber. 50 to one out there at a couple books. So Schwarber pays for 41 home runs last season. He projects for 15th roughly this year. So this is how I do player props, right? Like I look at my projections, I try to bucket guys based on where their projections are. And then I look at the odds board and say, oh, well, this guy's bucketed with the, he shouldn't be bucketed with the 30 to one guys, but you're giving me a 70 to one on them or 50 to one. Well, Schwerber on the odds board is bucketed more with guys in the 50 to one, 60 to one group, when based on projections, he should be in that 25 to 30 range, right? Here's the reason I really like this bet. Working with Kevin Long, new Phillies hitting coach, He was the national sitting coach last season If you not aware of Kevin long he helped Curtis Granderson unlock back to back 40 home run seasons helped Daniel Murphy double his power output with the Mets went absolutely ballistic in the playoffs went from 13 to 25 home runs year over year helped Ryan Zimmerman, late career resurgence. This guy unlocks power. Look at all the data for Schwarber last season. Highest launch angle of his career, increased his fly ball rate by 10%, ninth in barrels per bat at ball event. That ranked in the top 10, obviously ranked in the top 10, but amongst guys like Aaron Judge, other superstar power hitters, best hard hit rate of his career. And he chased pitches outside the zone less often than ever before. So improvements across the board for Schwarber modified his swing under Kevin Long. I think he's probably going to break that 40 home run mark, whether he gets to the top, whether he plays enough to hit that mark, we'll see. But 50 to one is outrageous value on a guy who should be a top 15 home run performer. Kyle Schwarber, Indiana Hoosier. That's right.”
Schwarber led the NL with 46 home runs but did not lead MLB; Aaron Judge led all of baseball with 62. (Schwarber 46 HR (NL leader); MLB leader Judge 62 HR)
“[7:46] tremendous value on the Jays out there, both in the divisional market and the World Series markets. [7:50] got 225 on them last week to win the division. [7:52] I'd still play the plus 190, plus 185 that's out there. [7:56] And the World Series odds, 11-1, 12-1 last week. [7:59] We moved that number down to 950 within a matter of hours, [8:02] but I still think the 11-1 out there is worth taking. [8:05] So anything in double digits for me on the Jays in the preseason,”
MLB's 2022 postseason records show Toronto did not win the World Series.
“[7:06] They've got the number three rotation, the number two lineup, Sean Zirillo, the 2022 Toronto Blue Jays. [7:13] What's the outlook? [7:14] My favorite World Series play 11 currently at BetMGM Now I have the Jays at 94 wins I have the Yankees at 92 and I have the Rays actually at 92 So all three of those teams within a few wins of each other But my projections compare pretty favorably to Fangraphs Zips both in the AL East and in the AL as a whole [7:35] And Fangraphs has the Jays at 44% to win their division. That's about plus 125 implied. [7:41] They have them at 12% to win the World Series. It's about 725 implied. So I think there's [7:46] tremendous value on the Jays out there, both in the divisional market and the World Series markets. [7:50] got 225 on them last week to win the division.”
MLB's 2022 standings show Toronto did not win the AL East.
“But the numbers tell me I have to bet the over here I don love it It a one unit play but we going to go ahead and take an over 61 and a half on the Orioles”
MLB's 2022 standings show Baltimore cleared the 61.5-win line.
“[21:43] So there's no value there. [21:45] I actually do like this team from a player prop perspective. [21:48] There's a few different guys I'm going to be targeting, [21:49] a certain Cuban youngster who I might look at in the MVP market. [21:53] but I'm going to take the under down to 92 here. There's a 93 and a half juice at Bet Rivers. I [21:59] would play that. As I mentioned, I have the projection closer to 88. So I see a pretty [22:04] significant gap between that 93 and a half and my projection. How about you, Colin? White Sox,”
MLB's 2022 standings show Chicago finished below the 93.5-win line.
“[25:05] The market does like Minnesota quite a bit. [25:08] I'm low on the favorite, as we mentioned. [25:10] So if I'm low on the favorite division, I'm probably taking a chance on a long shot. [25:14] The Twins would be my long shot here to bounce back. [25:17] Market projections anywhere between plus 220 and plus three to win the Central. [25:22] You can still get them at plus 575 at BetRivers. [25:25] I think that's a tremendous bet.”
MLB's 2022 standings show Minnesota did not win the AL Central.
“[25:29] Unless you're going to count the Jays at 2-1, which I don't. [25:32] My projection, win total, 79.5. [25:35] So I actually lean to the over. [25:36] I bet an over 78.5. [25:37] They're still in 80.5 at Caesars. [25:39] Probably take that. [25:41] The market projection has come up to like 84.5 as they've continued to add pieces.”
MLB's 2022 standings show Minnesota finished below the 78.5-win line.
“[25:29] Unless you're going to count the Jays at 2-1, which I don't. [25:32] My projection, win total, 79.5. [25:35] So I actually lean to the over. [25:36] I bet an over 78.5. [25:37] They're still in 80.5 at Caesars. [25:39] Probably take that. [25:41] The market projection has come up to like 84.5 as they've continued to add pieces.”
MLB's 2022 standings show Detroit finished below the 78.5-win line.
“[39:55] Sean, thoughts on the Astros, the reigning champions of the American League? [40:00] another potentially vulnerable favorite here at another team worth taking a shot against with [40:04] teams further down the board in the vision we'll get to those in a moment but my projection on the [40:09] astros is 89.8 it's basically 90 the market is actually a win lower than i am and all four [40:16] projections like them to go under this 92 and a half that's out there so i think the under 92 and [40:21] a half is a decent play minus 110 at fan duel bet rivers hung in 94 and a half last week i don't [40:27] know what they were thinking that was way too high so we smashed that one down but the under 92 and a”
MLB's 2022 standings show Houston exceeded the 94.5-win line.
“[56:26] That is one of the phrases that you just can't say after what you said. [56:31] You're right. [56:32] Before we wrap your favorite bet from this division. [56:34] We had some fun talking about this one, Sean, your favorite bet from the AL West. [56:37] Yeah. I mean, it's, it's the controversial, you know, under, [56:40] but it's the Mariners under 84 and a half plus 100 points bet. [56:44] It's just no projection gets up to that level.”
MLB's 2022 standings show Seattle exceeded the 84.5-win line.
“So the Marlins over 75.5 at Caesars is my best bet for the NL East.”
MLB's 2022 standings show Miami finished below the 75.5-win line.
“[24:41] that's my stopping point because you're still getting about a 5% edge there, [24:44] but I wouldn't go past it in the world series market. [24:47] This team should probably be closer to plus 1400 and plus 1600 to win the [24:51] World Series There a 16 to one out there at Caesars so that minus 150 and that 16 to one both at Caesars If the Brewers make the playoffs and win the division they probably going to be in that second spot in the NL getting that by and avoiding the Dodgers in that half of the NL bracket [25:08] So everything basically sets up for the Brewers to potentially get to the NLCS [25:13] and not have to face the Dodgers potentially when they get there. [25:16] So I like the Brewers from a divisional perspective.”
MLB's 2022 standings show Milwaukee did not win the NL Central.
“[24:38] I think minus one 50 is still okay, but that's, [24:41] that's my stopping point because you're still getting about a 5% edge there, [24:44] but I wouldn't go past it in the world series market. [24:47] This team should probably be closer to plus 1400 and plus 1600 to win the [24:51] World Series There a 16 to one out there at Caesars so that minus 150 and that 16 to one both at Caesars If the Brewers make the playoffs and win the division they probably going to be in that second spot in the NL getting that by and avoiding the Dodgers in that half of the NL bracket [25:08] So everything basically sets up for the Brewers to potentially get to the NLCS [25:13] and not have to face the Dodgers potentially when they get there.”
MLB's 2022 postseason records show Milwaukee did not win the World Series.
“[30:33] There's a low of 74 from Davenport. [30:35] You mentioned Brendan, the 79.1 from Bakota. [30:39] Nobody likes this team anywhere near their total. [30:43] So even though I'm basically in line 85 and a half [30:46] with the listed total, [30:47] I'm going to trust those market projections [30:49] and go under 85 and a half Caesars points bet.”
MLB's 2022 standings show St. Louis exceeded the 85.5-win line.
“So the Pirates over 62 and a half, juiced up to about minus 125 at Bet Rivers. [40:05] It's my favorite play for Pittsburgh, but not a huge bet.”
MLB's 2022 standings show Pittsburgh finished below the 62.5-win line.
“[4:48] I played blades in the over one and a half rounds at Caesars. [4:51] That was minus 115. [4:53] Absolutely love that price. [4:54] You can also play blades in the over two and a half rounds at points bet That a prop there plus 126 I think either of those are solid bets I expecting a Blades late round finish or a Blades decision [5:05] Looked at his late round props, just didn't think the prices were juicy enough for my liking. [5:10] So Blades in over one and a half rounds, minus 115 at Caesars. [5:13] It's my best bet for this fight.”
Official UFC results show Blaydes defeated Daukaus in round two, satisfying both parlay legs.
“I'm going to go with Chris Gutierrez, plus 120 at Bet Rivers.”
Official UFC results confirm Gutierrez defeated Batgerel.
“[7:52] Baccaro, good boxer, but he's very much a headhunter, doesn't target the body, and that's [7:57] where you can hurt Gutierrez. Gutierrez doesn't get hit to the head as much, so I think it's just [8:01] a good matchup for him stylistically. Seemed Baccaro not react to kicks well in the past. [8:06] So Gutierrez, plus 120, 50-50 striker versus striker matchup. Going to roll him on the money [8:11] line. I'm also going to play him by decision at plus 225 at BetMGM. Projected that line closer to [8:16] plus 166, so about a 7% edge in my projections, both on the money line and by decision. [8:22] for Chris Gutierrez. Sean likes a dog. How about you, Billy? It feels like you're going to be a”
Official UFC results record Gutierrez-Batgerel as a TKO, not a decision.
“[9:54] goes to ask her off so i'm curious sean we're talking the fight of the night now for the guys [10:00] night ask her off is at minus 400 and then the plus money is significant on kai caro france at [10:06] plus 300 ask her off has won 14 straight both fighters are top five flyweight fighters sean [10:13] weigh in on this one yeah originally i thought it was pretty binary and i agree with billy that the [10:19] caro france side the way to play him is either by knockout or inside the distance i have him plus [10:23] 750 at draft kings inside the distance projected that closer to plus 525 so that is the way i'm [10:29] going to play this fight. I'm going to sprinkle a tenth of a unit on his inside the distance odds.”
Official UFC results record Kara-France-Askarov as a decision, not an inside-distance finish.
“but Matheus Nicolau, [12:21] probably my favorite decision prop aside from Chris Gutierrez by decision plus 250 at MGM projected that closer to plus 200 I also like that fight to go to a decision with David Dvorak”
Official UFC results record Nicolau-Dvorak as a Nicolau decision victory.
“[12:21] probably my favorite decision prop aside from Chris Gutierrez by decision plus 250 at MGM projected that closer to plus 200 I also like that fight to go to a decision with David Dvorak Favorite inside the distance prop aside from Cara France that would be Alexa Grasso plus 600 at BetMGM [12:37] projected that closer to plus 450.”
Official UFC results record Grasso's submission victory, an inside-distance finish.
“[12:40] And then Jennifer Maia by submission, plus 1,800 at DraftKings, [12:44] projected that closer to plus 1,500. [12:46] If she wins that fight, she's probably going to have to do it with her grappling. [12:50] And if she's grappling, she's going to have a chance at the submission. [12:52] So plus 1800, probably the best long shot submission board on the card for tomorrow.”
Official UFC results confirm Fiorot defeated Maia by decision.
“[19:13] honest with you, but Barbarina is nine years younger. Trust his volume more, trust his cardio [19:18] more, trust his durability ever so slightly more. I don't really expect Brown to come out here and [19:23] have some grappling success. And I'm surprised that the line is close as it is. I would make [19:28] Barbarina closer to 60% here. I also like the fight to end inside the distance, made that closer [19:33] to 70%, around minus 220, so just under 70%. So Barbarina minus 108 at FanDuel, fight to end [19:39] inside the distance minus 186 at fan duel like that fight pretty much as much as the gutierrez [19:46] or the blights fights this weekend and billy ward your best bet for the weekend yeah before i totally”
Official UFC results confirm Barberena defeated Brown.
“[19:13] honest with you, but Barbarina is nine years younger. Trust his volume more, trust his cardio [19:18] more, trust his durability ever so slightly more. I don't really expect Brown to come out here and [19:23] have some grappling success. And I'm surprised that the line is close as it is. I would make [19:28] Barbarina closer to 60% here. I also like the fight to end inside the distance, made that closer [19:33] to 70%, around minus 220, so just under 70%. So Barbarina minus 108 at FanDuel, fight to end [19:39] inside the distance minus 186 at fan duel like that fight pretty much as much as the gutierrez [19:46] or the blights fights this weekend and billy ward your best bet for the weekend yeah before i totally”
Official UFC results record Barberena-Brown as a decision, not an inside-distance finish.
“and take Alexander Volkov here at plus 110.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“Round three is plus 1,800.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“Round four is plus 2,800.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“Round five is plus 3,300.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“each of those take Volkov on the money line. And I'm also betting the fight to end inside the distance. Minus 150 at Ben MGM. I projected that line closer to minus 185. Aspinall early, Volkov late. I do expect this fight to end inside the distance.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“But I think the better way to play Craig is by inside the distance plus 330 at DraftKings”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“Cory McKenna inside the distance, plus 333 at BetMGM.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“Yeah, we already talked about the co-main event between Dan Hooker and Arnold Billy Allen, and that's where I'm going to go for my best bet. But it's not Dan Hooker. Billy and I disagreed on the side. And I think that's okay. This is going to be a really tough, close, competitive fight. And if Billy's able to hit takedowns on a Billy Allen, I think the clock is going to tick away pretty quickly. So I've got this fight going to the distance. Two-thirds of the time, 67% or minus 200 implied. You can get a minus 140 at BetMGM. I think that's a terrific bet. Fight to go to a decision. Minus 140 at BetMGM.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“Have Hooker here projected at 55%, so I do lean to his side and getting plus money on a guy I have projected at 55%. I do have to bet that at least a little bit.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“but Ankalayev to win inside the distance plus 120 at Ben MGM.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“I'm taking AJ Fletcher on the money line here, plus 180 at FanDuel.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“Billy, underdog bet, your favorite. Yeah, I'm going with Alex Caceres. I think the best line you can get right now is plus 215. He's fighting Sadiq Youssef. And what's looking like it should be a primarily stand-up fight. Yusuf's only attempted like just under half of a takedown per round in his UFC career. But Caceres has some sneaky grappling. He's got a bunch of submission wins on there. So this profiles as a fight where Stanley up is pretty even you know yusuf might have a slight edge but if that starts going poorly for bruce leroy he can just take him to the ground it's a good way to steal some rounds this fight doesn't look like it's necessarily the likeliest done by a stoppage i think it's one of the longer ones actually um yeah it's even money to end by a stoppage so if it goes decision and casaris has stolen a couple rounds with takedowns in there i really like his upside at that and you know he's five and oh in his last five fights he was a plus 180 underdog against another rising prospect and Chase Hooper. And I think we need to stop writing him off as a gatekeeper and start thinking about Caceres as a legitimate contender right now. Yeah, I like Caceres as well. I'm on his money line too. And I really like his submission prop also. Considering that's higher than his knockout prop, that doesn't really make sense to me. He's really good at taking the back up along the cage. So he doesn't even necessarily need takedowns to get control time or have grappling success here. If he's able to get to Yusuf's back, lock it, body triangle, take the neck. I think that's a viable path to victory, both on minutes or potentially by submission. Yeah, take a look around all the books, folks. Caceres on DraftKings is plus 215. Over on BetMGM, he's plus 210. So those odds are moving as we encourage you all to keep your eyes open as those movements”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“occur as the week goes on. Let's move on to the guys' fight of the night. They are keying in on Bruno Silva and Alex Pereira. This middleweight fight, both fighters coming off wins last time out. Why is this a fight, first off, Sean, that you are particularly interested in? Well, it's lined so heavily to finish inside the distance. I believe it's one of the heavier lines I've seen. As high as minus 700 to end inside the distance, around 85% to 90% implied. Pereira is catching a lot of hype because he knocked out Israel Adesanya in kickboxing. I believe beat him twice. If you go back and watch those fights, Adesanya is kind of putting it on him until Pereira knocks him out. This guy has crazy power. Incredible check left hook. Looks like he's built out of an oak tree. Trains with Glover Teixeira in Connecticut, so he's definitely making improvements. That said, I don't really know if his kickboxing style translates to MMA as well as somebody like Adesanya's does. Adesanya, a much more fluid striker. Pereira, a bit more stationary and just kind of pops you with power, knocks you down. Doesn't really move his head a ton. So if we going to get a wild striking affair on the feet with four ounce gloves yeah Silva can definitely put him away Former M1 champion in Russia Really good durability actually and good cardio too He's fought into the fourth round. A bit questionable in terms of Pereira's cardio. We really haven't seen him get extended, but we did see him get submitted earlier in his career. I don't think his grappling is necessarily great. He's able to survive on the ground when you take him down, but eventually he's able to find his way back to his feet as he did against Michaelitis in his debut and knock him out with a flying knee. So he's got some fantastic techniques on the feet. As long as he's able to survive on the ground and eventually get back up, I think he's going to be able to find his way to victory. And Silva's probably going to need to grapple to find some success. I don't see him having a ton of success in a range kickboxing match with Pereira. I've seen Bruno Silva fall behind on volume or just fall behind on minutes and find consecutive third round knockouts. So Silva definitely live in a high variance fight, potentially live as he's able to secure takedowns but submission prop plus 1600 for me is my favorite way to play him and that's my only bet on this fight otherwise i'm just going to sit back gather some information and just enjoy the violence perera and silva they have takedown”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“Be sure to check us out every Friday We are making our way through the card and going through some of our favorite plays for Saturday We move on to our favorite prop for each of the guys Sean where are you looking on the prop market Yeah, you guys know, I like to go with those long shot submission props already said Caceres by submission, 1100 Silva, 1600. So those are my favorite long shot props, but in terms of a bet that I really like, we're going to go JJ Aldrich and Jillian Robertson to go to a decision or to go the distance. You could get that minus 104 at FanDuel. Bet it plus 122 yesterday. I think that line was insane. Women's flyweight fights, they go to decision about 60% of the time. So about minus 150 implied. You were getting plus money yesterday. You're still getting minus 104 today. I think that's tremendous value. And that's right where I have this fight projected about 59 to 60%”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“pay a lot of attention to is Drew Dober versus McKinney. That's got the next best odds to end inside the distance at minus 280. You know, McKinney's won both of his, I think, both in the first round, right, Sean? Both of his UFC fights? Yep. And, you know, Dober, until his last two fights, we were talking about him as a possible title challenger, this up-and-coming prospect. McKinney took it on short notice, which I think helps Dober, but it also probably increases the likelihood that McKinney looks for an early finish, comes out really hard, tries to put him away, And then if he doesn't, you've got Dober racking up takedowns and control time, possibly finishing him later in the fight if McKinney runs out of gas. So that's another one. Sean, any opinions on which of those guys you'd prefer to target? Yeah, I'm probably going to use a little bit of each, actually. But like you said, probably have at least one or the other in most of my lineups. I just I expect violence here. McKinney has admitted that he looks for first round finishes. It's just the way he fights. He's very explosive. but his effectiveness tends to wane the later his fight goes. So McKinney round one, Dober round two, round three. Those are the round props I would target. I'm just betting the fight to end inside the distance. Got minus 210 or I believe minus 200 even. Under two and a half at minus 190 at BetMGM is the way I'd play it at this point. Anything else, Billy?”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“our best bets. Sean, we'll start with you, sir. Give me Damon Jackson, the leech, minus 110 at Caesars is where I bet it. This line's come down a lot.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“I think he's probably a pretty solid underdog bet at anything over plus 175, but you can get plus 200 in the marketplace. So Tim, Elliott, Elliott by decision are my favorite underdog plays for this weekend. He's 205, as you mentioned, on FanDuel, Tim Elliott. You can also find him at plus 200 on DraftKings and BetMGM.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“I like his decision prop at plus 450.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“is going to be Kevin Holland by submission at plus 850. This line should be closer to plus 500.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“Yeah we just mentioned the fight but I going to take Rafael Dos Anjos minus 175 I have this line projected closer to minus 250”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“I'm also taking them on the money line at about plus 175.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“That said, Rongju does have the grappling upside here. And if he is able to get this fight to the ground, he's going to look like a favorite for the periods of time where it is on the ground. So if he's able to steal a round with a takedown, maybe steal another round with power optics. I don't think winning a decision is out of the question, but he is the guy, in my opinion, who has more finishing upside by about 10%. So I like him on the money line at plus 170. I would play that down to about plus 150. I also like his odds to win inside the distance. Believe that I got that at plus 650, project that closer to plus 400.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“not waste any time we go over the guy's fight of the night so sean please share with us how you are attacking that particular matchup in the prop market yeah so i project out win conditions for every fighter you just comparing the money line to the percentage of win conditions. So Alvarez, you mentioned no decision wins in his career. I believe I think he might have one decision loss, but regardless, I projected a finish at 85% of his win condition. That would put the implied odds at about plus two Oh five for his his finish proper when inside the distance odds the market actually has them closer to 65 You can find a plus 300 at DraftKings There about a 20 discrepancy in how I rate his finish chances if he wins versus how the market rates his finish chances if he wins. So I love that plus 300 on Alvarez to win inside the distance. Definitely prefer that to his money line. I think hitting his round one odds at plus 650 is also a must, regardless of whether you want to play the other bet. I think that's his most likely win condition, is an early finish. He is going to gas out. Sarukin is solid live bet after round one for sure. Decision prop, not really sure because Alvarez may tire late and get finished himself. So that's my favorite way to play that fight. And I'm also going to give out another violence prop.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“I going to go with Terrance McKinney against Ferris ZM Now I'm not going to take him on the money line because I think there's a better way to play them. I did actually bet his money line. The first time this fight was booked, ended up getting canceled due to positive COVID test rescheduled. And I'm glad it did because I'm approaching this fight slightly differently. In my opinion, there's much more value on McKinney's odds to win inside the distance than on his money line. It's a very similar situation to how I'm playing the Joe Alvarez fight. Projective finish is about 85% of McKinney's win condition. The market odds are putting it closer to 65%. So based on my projection, I have him winning inside the distance 44% of the time. The market at plus 200 is giving you a 33% implied probability. That's an 11% projected edge. I think plus 200 is a phenomenal number on Terrance McKinney.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“Now I'm not going to take him on the money line because I think there's a better way to play them. I did actually bet his money line. The first time this fight was booked, ended up getting canceled due to positive COVID test rescheduled. And I'm glad it did because I'm approaching this fight slightly differently. In my opinion, there's much more value on McKinney's odds to win inside the distance than on his money line. It's a very similar situation to how I'm playing the Joe Alvarez fight. Projective finish is about 85% of McKinney's win condition. The market odds are putting it closer to 65%. So based on my projection, I have him winning inside the distance 44% of the time. The market at plus 200 is giving you a 33% implied probability. That's an 11% projected edge. I think plus 200 is a phenomenal number on Terrance McKinney. Doesn't really have a complete MMA game. We haven't really seen him past the six or seven minute mark in any fight. So not really sure what his cardio is going to look like late. ZM, another potential live betting spot. As I mentioned, there's six on this card that I really like. But 10 of 11 finishes for McKinney have come inside of round one. So his inside the distance odds at plus 200. His round one odds at plus 400. I think those are both very obvious plays.”
UFC official results confirm the stored outcome.
“So Braves plus one and a half games minus 155 as opposed to the series money line. I think that's how I'd go about playing it.”
Atlanta won the 2021 World Series over Houston in six games (MLB).
“He's hitting 291 and has a 413 weight on base average since joining the Red Sox, along with Bogarts Martinez and Devers who have all been incredibly hot over the second half of the season It a tough matchup for Gary Cole but I think the Yankees are deserving favorites Again, I don't really project much value, so I'm just going to sit back as a fan and kind of enjoy the game. Zerillo, how about you? Yeah, I have two bets on this game. I took first five for the Red Sox at plus money. It's since come down below. I had them at about 51.5%, 52% for the first five innings. Kind of surprised me. But the difference in these teams is the bullpens. The Yankees, much better bullpen quality.”
MLB's 2021 postseason record shows Boston won the AL Wild Card game.
“And I took some over eight and a half as well.”
MLB's 2021 postseason record shows Yankees-Red Sox finished below 8.5 runs.
“As you mentioned, I believe I played the White Sox and the Brewers at 17 to 1.”
MLB's 2021 postseason record shows a White Sox-Brewers World Series did not occur.
“The White Sox with the Braves closer to 27 to 1.”
MLB's 2021 postseason record shows a White Sox-Braves World Series did not occur.
“Really good defensive matchup on both sides of the ball. Colton Wong obviously added to the Brewers. Andropson Simmons added to the Twins. I think not having Nelson Cruz in the lineup in an NL Park is kind of a big deal. This is one of my favorite unders for opening day. If you could bet eight to minus 110, you can bet seven and a half at even money or better. I really like both of those. I like both of these pitchers a lot. They're my two favorite Cy Young sleepers at 25 to one. Maeda started throwing his best pitches slider more often last year. Both guys keep the ball on the ground. close to a 50% rate. I think they're both 49% last year. So there's a lot of things pointing to the under in this game. Also a climate controlled stadium. So give me the under. And that's probably my favorite total for month for Thursday, rather.”
MIL 6, MIN 5 — MLB results show Milwaukee beat Minnesota 6-5, an 11-run game that went over eight.
“Yeah, I was surprised to see that. You know, obviously, to have a lot of futures money invested in the Astros, but Bassett, if you go by Exweba, he was better than Granke last year. He took a step forward. Granke took a step back. A lot of weak contact from Bassett. Keeps the ball on the ground. Heavy cutter guy. Increases cutter usage last year. I also have a four-year-old Bassett out, and this is her favorite pitcher. So I have to back Bassett whenever he shows value. It's just a rule in my household. So give me the A's on opening day. I also show slight value on the under. I might end up playing that too. Two healthy bullpens. Really good defensive team in the A's. So I'm thinking about adding an under as well, but definitely the A is up to about minus 110.”
HOU 8, OAK 1 — MLB results show Houston beat Oakland 8-1, so Oakland's moneyline lost.
“Three teams that show value both in the divisional and World Series markets. That's the Astros, the Mets and the Brewers. I think we already mentioned them. I'm also betting Cleveland in the L-Central after that Eli Jimenez injury. There's a 10 to 1 number out there. I believe at points bet, you can absolutely hit that. I think I like that down to about plus 700. So again, Astros, Mets, Brewers, and Cleveland, I think are all live in the divisional markets.”
2021 MLB standings show the Chicago White Sox won the AL Central, not Cleveland.
“Bit of a homer pick, but listen, I've never bet Mets futures before. Again, the most conservative divisional projection on them is 53%. Highest is 63%. So betting them at plus 150 to win their division, it's more than a 15% edge. Again, World Series projection closer to 11%.”
The New York Mets finished 77-85, third in the NL East; the Atlanta Braves won the division at 88-73.
“But by far, the most undervalued team right now is the Milwaukee Brewers. Added Colton Long and Jackie Bradley Jr. up the middle to fix their defense. We've seen repeatedly throughout the past decade, 20 years, the quickest way to improve your team and turn it around is to improve your team defense and when you have really good pitching like they do it kind of amplifies everything that you're doing so Yelich is heading in spring training looks over the struggles that he had last year Keston Hero is heading in spring training I like the way that their offense is shaping up I love their defense I love their bullpen I have a couple really sneaky Cy Young candidates at the top of their rotation Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burns so just to go back to projections I have them 54% to win the NL Central their range is 37 to 63 percent so it's a much wider range of outcomes in a pretty wide open division you can still bet a plus 310 out there at fan duel that's obviously still more than a 10 percent edge even if you're taking that 37 percent projection i have the world series odds projected at 3.4 percent you can find a number as high as 7500 i threw a ticket up on twitter yesterday”
The Milwaukee Brewers lost to the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS and did not win the 2021 World Series; the Braves beat Houston 4 games to 2 in the World Series.
“The two under teams I'm looking at right now, Chicago White Sox under 90 and a half wins.”
The Chicago White Sox finished 93-69 in 2021, over the 90.5-win total, so the under lost.
“Yeah, so there's certain criteria that you just need to hit in order to be able to get in the conversation. So I usually pick off about three or four guys in each league for Cy Young, and then I just stick with one person in each league for MVP. So we're going by MVPs. I have Jose Ramirez in the AL.”
Shohei Ohtani was voted the unanimous 2021 AL MVP, not Jose Ramirez.
“certainly going to have the numbers to claim it but really my most confident player future player that i want to have stock in is juan soto um people realize that he's great but i don't think they realize the context of how great he is four of the six projection systems that i rely on have him already as a better hitter than mike trout if you look at historical context if you talk to scouts if you talk to managers who are around for it during that time the comp on him is Ted Williams. And if you look at the filters for data in terms of what they've already put up through age 21, they're the only two players in MLB history with a walk rate greater than 15%, a home run plus walk rate greater than 20%, and a season with more walks than strikeouts where they led the league in on-base percentage. Again, the only two baseball players in history through age 21, Juan Soto and Ted Williams. So man, I think Soto's live for a triple crown, not just this year but in the future um i only have him for mbp at plus 850”
Bryce Harper won the 2021 NL MVP award, not Juan Soto.
“they led the league in on-base percentage. Again, the only two baseball players in history through age 21, Juan Soto and Ted Williams. So man, I think Soto's live for a triple crown, not just this year but in the future um i only have him for mbp at plus 850 i have him for most home runs at 18 to 1 i like that to 15 to 1”
Fernando Tatis Jr. led the NL with 42 home runs in 2021; Juan Soto did not lead the league.
“i think the grom is kind of as close as you can get to a walk for nl cy young if he stays stays healthy His velocity actually increased last year The guy is seemingly getting better with age converted shortstop doesn have as much mileage on his arm as other pitchers akin to him do So I really like DeGrom, but there's some other long shots in the NL”
Corbin Burnes won the 2021 NL Cy Young Award (MLB-leading 2.43 ERA), not Jacob deGrom.
“So I really like DeGrom, but there's some other long shots in the NL I'm taking a look at, my favorite one of which is probably Brandon Woodruff at 25-1. We've been big on the Brewers on this podcast, but Woodruff is going to be a big driver of their success this year. He's a workhorse. He's going to get to 200 innings, probably 200 strikeouts, if he stays healthy. And on the AL side, I really like the improvements that Kenta Maeda made last season with the Twins. It's rare that you have a pitcher or a player to lead the Dodgers and find improvements, but his Dakota projections are extremely optimistic. They have his ERA close to about 3.25, so he's right up with the leaders in the AL. If he gets 30 turns and averages six innings per start and has better ratios, he has a really good defense behind him. If he has better ratios than the guys who are a little bit ahead of him strikeouts like Giolito and like Garrett Cole. He's going to be in the conversation. He finished second last year behind Shane Beaver, who's unanimous. So he's already on the minds of voters. So Kenta Maeda is a long shot. I think it's certainly worth the price of the ticket.”
Robbie Ray won the 2021 AL Cy Young Award in a near-unanimous vote (29 of 30 first-place votes), not Kenta Maeda.
“But man, I have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 15th in my RBI projections, and everyone around him in my projections is listed between 25 and 30 to one for most RBIs. You can get them at 60 to one at FanDuel. That's one of my favorite prop bets out there right now.”
Salvador Perez led MLB with 121 RBIs in 2021; Vladimir Guerrero Jr. did not lead the league.
“one of my sneaky favorite props right now, it's actually a most saves prop on Trevor Rosenthal. He signed late with the A's. He's replacing Liam Hendricks, who led the American League in saves or led all of baseball in saves since the midpoint of the 2019 season. So he's certainly going to have the opportunities to convert those saves. Rebounded from Tommy John. Was awful the first year coming back. Had career best rates across the board last year. Was absolutely tremendous. He's eighth on my saves leaderboard. Everyone around him is in the 10 to 14 range. So a 20 to 1, 15 to 1 even or better. I really like Rosenthal for most saves.”
Trevor Rosenthal never appeared for the A's in 2021, undergoing thoracic outlet and hip labrum surgeries, and recorded zero saves; Mark Melancon led MLB with 39 saves.
“Sure. The Mets over 90 and a half wins. That's where I play it up to.”
Baseball-Reference records the 2021 Mets at 77 wins, below 90.5.
“Fangraphs is at 33%. I'm at 31.1%. Even still at those projections, You can get a 10% edge. You can bet them at plus 380, 21% implied. I bet that down to plus 280 at a 5% edge. I think the Brewers are absolutely the team to target here.”
Baseball-Reference's 2021 NL standings show Milwaukee won the NL Central.
“so i'm already on the dodgers over 101 and a half i think it's actionable only up to that”
Baseball-Reference records the 2021 Dodgers at 106 wins, clearing 101.5.
“The one bet that I have locked in is the Tigers under 68 and a half wins.”
Baseball-Reference records the 2021 Tigers at 77 wins, so under 68.5 lost.
“so i got divisional money down immediately on the Astros You could still get plus 160 at DraftKings”
Baseball-Reference's 2021 AL standings show Houston won the AL West.
“Have you bet any American League World Series futures? Just Houston. Just Houston down to, I like them, the plus 2,000. But you can get them at 2,500 across the board. Like I said, my projection is closer to plus 1,700. And Fangraphs is even higher on them than I am. they're at plus 1350. Colin, you want to recap and throw out some, you want to find us the next”
Baseball-Reference's 2021 World Series summary records Atlanta as champion, not Houston.
“I believe split a share of the A's at plus 400. But there is some plus 450s out there. I think that's an extremely actionable price. I like it.”
MLB standings show Oakland won the AL West; the recorded outcome matches.
“now. So there is no, you know, betting deliverable on here. But as far as betting deliverables go, this is the end of the podcast. And I think we'll go ahead and put in summary what we like best from here There a long fly ball deep center field Jackson back he leads he made an unbelievable catch Sean what do you got first off for best AL win total I say it probably a tie for me between Texas at 80 and a half and Boston at 86 and a half But, you know, if you made me pick one, I'll say Texas. I just think there's a little more value there.”
The shortened MLB season left this full-season win-total wager void; the recorded outcome matches.
“feeling that this is the team that we like in Nail Central, correct? Yeah, there's an 82 and a half out there at MGM. I would bet the over on that. That's the smallest gap between a projection and an over that I would bet. But that's how I feel about this team. I feel very strongly about the White Sox. As the market consensus has kind of caught up to us, I've become a little bit more nervous about the fact that we have such a strong position on them. But jumping in at 7,500 early was something we probably should have maxed bet and then prop swapped maybe. We have some plus 500 division plus, you know, 7,500 World Series. So I have over 81 and a half on a win total.”
The shortened MLB season left this full-season win-total wager void; the recorded outcome matches.
“I bet under 93 and a half, pretty much the limit. I bet under 92.”
The shortened MLB season left this full-season win-total wager void; the recorded outcome matches.
“I want to start with win totals. Yeah, absolutely. That's where I focus the majority of my time. So definitely I think we can find some edges in that market. Chicago White Sox right now under 74 and a half. That's what you like. Is that because they didn't get Manny Machado? Yeah, I think the White Sox line was inflated a little bit”
The White Sox finished the 2019 regular season 72-89, under 74.5 wins, so the under wins. (White Sox 72-89)
“Your MLB win totals, some of your highlights here. Atlanta, under 86.5. Arizona, over 74.5. Chicago Cubs, under 89.5. Chicago White Sox, under 74.5. Seattle, over 71.5. And as you just mentioned... The 2-0 Seattle Mariners. That's right. I might add. Tampa Bay over 84.5.”
The Diamondbacks finished the 2019 regular season 85-77, over 74.5 wins, so the over wins. (Diamondbacks 85-77)
“Atlanta, under 86.5.”
The Braves finished the 2019 regular season 97-65, well over 86.5 wins, so the under loses. (Braves 97-65)
“Your MLB win totals, some of your highlights here. Atlanta, under 86.5. Arizona, over 74.5. Chicago Cubs, under 89.5.”
The Cubs finished the 2019 regular season 84-78, under 89.5 wins, so the under wins. (Cubs 84-78)
“Seattle, over 71.5. And as you just mentioned... The 2-0 Seattle Mariners.”
The 2019 Mariners finished 68-94, falling short of 71.5 wins, so the over loses. (Mariners 68-94)
“Tampa Bay over 84.5.”
The 2019 Rays finished 96-66, well over 84.5 wins, so the over cashes. (Rays 96-66)