Carnell Tate under 7.5 (draft position) (+105)
“I hope they got their bets in.
The three that I have for everybody today is Carnell Tate under seven and a half.
You can get this at plus 105, plus money in a lot of different books.
I think his conceivable floor is the Washington Commanders.
I've heard if Sonny Stiles is not there, that Carnell Tate is, if he's not top on their board,
he is right there in the conversation for who they would take.”
Carnell Tate was drafted No. 4 overall by the Tennessee Titans in the 2026 NFL Draft (ESPN draft tracker); under 7.5 on his draft position cashes.
Houston Texans to draft a linebacker with their first pick (+1500)
“The next one that I'll discuss here is one that's a little bit further down.
We can throw this into long shot bets.
Houston to draft a linebacker with their first pick.
And I know everybody's talking about they go DT, they go edge,
they go offensive line.
Hasn't Houston shown us over the last few years,
like they might be more comfortable with their offensive line mix than we are.
And they are a prime candidate to trade back.
The thing about their roster makeup right now,
you look at their three starting linebackers,
Henry Toto is a free agent in 2027.
Aziz Alshair, free agent in 2027.
EJ Speed, a free agent in 2028.
every single linebacker on this roster right now is either a free agent in
2027 or 2028.
So if they were to trade back and trade out of the first round,
which they're live to do,
I've heard that they're a team that wants to move back as well.
They are right in the mix of the top of the second round to be right there
for a linebacker.
Like that is the sweet spot for it.
So I have plus 1500.
Yes.
Bet this.”
The Houston Texans' first selection in the 2026 NFL Draft was Keylan Rutledge, an offensive guard from Georgia Tech, taken with the No. 26 overall pick (ESPN draft tracker); the bet on a linebacker loses.
Mesidor under 25.5 draft position
“now I know.
And that's why I want to get out a key.
Mesidor under 25 and a half.
You can get it at plus one 10 plus one 20 at some books.
There are too many team fits that need pass rush.
Whether you want to talk inside that top 25,
whether we want to talk about the jets,
the Buccaneers,
the lions,
Minnesota,
depending on what they do or do not do with Jonathan Garnard,
Carolina Panthers, and the Dallas Cowboys, just to name a few.
So hitting this line, this line feels soft.
It feels wrong.
It feels like it's too much of the bias of the conversation about him being an older prospect
and not about where he can actually go in the first round of the NFL draft.
So that one I have to give out at the top because much like Casey Concepcion in his draft position,
I think Mesidor, if it moves, it's going to move very quickly and it's going to get steamed.
So definitely want to give that one out first.”
Akheem Mesidor was drafted No. 22 overall by the Los Angeles Chargers in the 2026 NFL Draft, beating the under 25.5 draft-position line (ESPN 2026 Draft round 1 tracker). (Pick No. 22 (Los Angeles Chargers): Akheem Mesidor, EDGE, Miami)
Spencer Fano to be first offensive lineman selected (+200)
“Um, the next one that I want to hit here is Spencer Fano at plus 200 to be the first offensive lineman selected.
If you look at the top of the draft board, there are a number of teams, whether Arizona, if they stick and pick and everybody has mocked them to Francis Malinoa the entire time.
But the stuff coming out about his medicals and what we know and what we don't know, because we don't we're not privy to those medicals.
Now, the media is making a really good conversation about, oh, he's fine.
Everything's OK.
What if Arizona is not sold on that?
What if Fano and MyWayNo are at the top of their board
and then you wanna talk about scheme structure,
gap run schemes versus
and stretch and things like that.
Fano's a better fit for maybe what Arizona wants to do if they don't go love
and they do stick and pick at tackle, much less him going to Cleveland.
I think there's a number of spots where we could see Fano plus 200.
I'm willing to put a unit down on that as him being the first offensive lineman selected.”
Spencer Fano (OT, Utah) was the first offensive lineman taken in the 2026 NFL Draft, going No. 9 overall to Cleveland — no OL was selected in picks 1-8 (ESPN 2026 Draft round 1 tracker). (Pick No. 9 (Cleveland Browns): Spencer Fano, OT, Utah — first OL off the board)
Seattle Seahawks first position drafted to be defensive lineman or edge
“The other two bets I'll make here real fast are really positional
and trying to fit team needs versus where they are in the draft.
I've been on this one the entire time.
Seattle, first position drafted, a defensive lineman or an edge at plus 400.”
Seattle's first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft was Jadarian Price, a running back (Notre Dame), at No. 32 overall — not a defensive lineman or edge rusher (ESPN 2026 Draft round 1 tracker). (Pick No. 32 (Seattle Seahawks): Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame)
Over 5.5 wide receivers drafted in Round 1 (+185) · Hard Rock Bet*
“I mean, right now you can get over five and a half wide receivers at plus 185 plus money at some books.”
Only 5 wide receivers were drafted in Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft, under the 5.5 line (ESPN draft tracker). (Round 1 WRs: Carnell Tate (Pick 4), Jordyn Tyson (Pick 8), Makai Lemon (Pick 20), KC Concepcion (Pick 24), Omar Cooper Jr. (Pick 30) = 5 total.)
Over 7.5 offensive linemen drafted in Round 1
“And the other thing I'll throw in here is you're seeing more teams draft offensive tackles specifically.
Like we can go in a lot of the markets are just offensive linemen in general.
But when you want to dial down just to the offensive tackles and then zoom out larger to the offensive line market,
there's money to be made because over the last two years, eight tackles,
not even counting like centers, guys switching to guard and stuff,
guys that were projected as tackles.
Over the last two years, eight of them have been taken in back-to-back years.
And now you can get the line.
Last time I looked was at seven, seven and a half.
Yeah, both of those give me the overs because history is showing in a lot of
these markets, and again, going back to the economics of the NFL,”
9 offensive linemen were drafted in Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft, over the 7.5 line (ESPN draft tracker). (Round 1 OL: Spencer Fano (9), Francis Mauigoa (10), Kadyn Proctor (12), Olaivavega Ioane (14), Blake Miller (17), Monroe Freeling (19), Max Iheanachor (21), Keylan Rutledge (26), Caleb Lomu (28) = 9 total.)
Rueben Bain Jr. to be drafted 2nd overall
“And if you want to talk about just stacking up production, if I'm going to get plus 1,000, plus 1,400 in some spots on Rueben Bain Jr. to go second overall, yes, please.”
Rueben Bain Jr. was not drafted 2nd overall; he went 15th overall to Tampa Bay, while the No. 2 pick was David Bailey to the New York Jets (ESPN draft tracker). (Rueben Bain Jr. selected 15th overall (Tampa Bay Buccaneers); No. 2 overall was David Bailey (EDGE, Texas Tech, New York Jets).)