“Spencer, you're going with Justin Thomas minus 125 over JJ Spahn.”
Spencer Aguiar
Analyst · 38-126-3 on settled picks
Bankroll
Last 10: 3-7 Net units over time, 1 unit staked per pick · 32 settled daysWhere the picks cash
record by league and market · ROI + color appear at ≥5 decided picks (smaller samples are noise)| League | futures | other | prop | moneyline | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 5-100-78% | 18-9+36% | 11-10+35% | 4-7-31% | 38-126-41% |
Picks
168 total · 1 pending“Blades Brown plus 115 over Aldrich Potgeeter.”
Blades Brown finished T12 at 14-under (275), completing all 4 rounds; Aldrich Potgieter withdrew after Round 3 at 4-under (T58), so under standard head-to-head WD rules Brown is graded the winner. (Brown -14 (T12, all 4 rounds) vs Potgieter -4, WD after R3 (T58))
“We turn now to your outrights. Blades Brown, as we mentioned, 66-1 to win this thing.”
Chris Gotterup won the 2026 John Deere Classic (20-under 264); Blades Brown did not win. (Gotterup won by 1 over Max Homa)
“I think you can still get numbers in the mid twenties there.”
Viktor Hovland won the 2026 Travelers Championship in a playoff over Scottie Scheffler; Siwoo Kim withdrew during round 2 with a back injury and did not win. (Kim WD'd R2 at 8-over through 12 holes; Hovland won in playoff at -21)
“Ludwig Oberg at 22 to one, Tommy Fleetwood at 20 to one,”
Viktor Hovland won the 2026 Travelers Championship; Ludvig Åberg did not win. (Hovland won -21 in playoff over Scheffler)
“Spencer's up for Siwoo Kim minus 125 over Justin Rose.”
At the 2026 US Open, Justin Rose made the cut and finished T11 (+2); Si Woo Kim missed the cut at +6 (146). Rose beat Kim. (Kim MC 77-69=146 (+6); Rose T11 282 (+2))
“andrew putnam to make the cut at plus 105”
Andrew Putnam shot 2-under 68 in Round 2 to make the cut at the 2026 U.S. Open, sitting T34 through 36 holes.
“But I think Scottie wins this.”
Wyndham Clark won the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills; Scottie Scheffler finished tied for 4th. (Wyndham Clark -4 (276), Scheffler T4)
“But I took Siwoo Kim over Justin Rose.”
Si Woo Kim missed the cut (146, +6) while Justin Rose made the cut and finished +1 (281); Kim loses the head-to-head matchup. (Kim MC (+6) vs Rose +1 (281))
“Andrew Putnam to make the cut at plus 105.”
Andrew Putnam made the 36-hole cut at +4 (finished T65 at 14-over for the week) at the 2026 U.S. Open.
“And like I said, it's not something that I normally do, but I am playing the chalk here with Scottie.”
Wyndham Clark won the 2026 U.S. Open (276, -4); Scheffler finished T4 at even par, not a win. (Scheffler T4 (E))
“Your head-to-head pick, the one that you're most bullish on, Doug Gimm, minus 132 over Hao Tung Li.”
Doug Ghim finished T15 to beat Haotong Li (T60) at the RBC Canadian Open.
“I'm going to start with Aaron Rye, 45 to one. Explain this to me like I'm a five-year-old”
Bud Cauley won the RBC Canadian Open; Aaron Rai did not win.
“Let's go to another one even longer, Eric Cole, 50 to one.”
Bud Cauley won the RBC Canadian Open; Eric Cole did not win.
“He's the number five overall player for me in proximity. When you look at this specific course”
Bud Cauley won the RBC Canadian Open; Mac Meisner did not win.
“and that's Brooks Koepka. Let's start with him, 35 to 1.”
Bud Cauley won the RBC Canadian Open; Brooks Koepka did not win.
“We saved the lottery ticket 140 to one Zachary Beauchieu.”
Bud Cauley won the RBC Canadian Open; Zachary Bachelot did not win.
“mac meisner minus 125 over pierce's son cootie”
Mac Meissner shot 75 in Round 1 to Pierceson Coody's 78, and Meissner made the cut (T46 +8) while Coody missed it (+10) at the Memorial Tournament. (Meissner 75 R1 (T46 +8 final) vs Coody 78 R1 (MC +10))
“going to be a Rory single bullet. I end up having a second name that we'll talk about in a second,”
J.T. Poston won the 2026 Memorial Tournament in a playoff over Ryan Gerard; Rory McIlroy did not win.
“I'm going to have the Siwoo Kim ticket. And if he ends up winning, we can come celebrate it next”
J.T. Poston won the 2026 Memorial Tournament; Si Woo Kim did not win.
“I don't think Tony Finau is going to look great in anybody's model, but I'm going to go with Tony Finau. [10:09] I got it at minus 110 over Rasmus Hoygaard.”
Tony Finau (70-70, E, 140) beat Rasmus Hojgaard (+4, 144) through 36 holes at the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge; both missed the cut (line -2) but Finau had the lower score. (Finau 140 (E) vs. Hojgaard 144 (+4) after Round 2)
“I took Justin Thomas at 26 to one. I think you can shop around and maybe even find a little”
Russell Henley won the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge in a playoff over Eric Cole; Justin Thomas did not win.
“I took Alex Smalley at 40 to one.”
Alex Smalley finished T3, one shot out of the playoff; Russell Henley won the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge.
“I took Brian Harmon at 66 to one.”
Russell Henley won the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge; Brian Harman did not win.
“Talked about Finau. I took him at 67 to 1.”
Russell Henley won the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge; Tony Finau did not win.
“Eric Cole, 100 to 1.”
Eric Cole lost a sudden-death playoff to Russell Henley at the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge, finishing 2nd.
“Mack Meisner minus 105 over Hao Lee Talk to me a little bit about this matchup”
Mac Meissner finished T40 (-12) while Haotong Li missed the cut at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, so Meissner won the matchup.
“Another head-to-head that you like, Taylor Moore minus 120 over Ventura.”
Taylor Moore finished T14 (-18) while Kris Ventura missed the cut, so Moore won the head-to-head.
“You like Ben Marden to make the cut at nearly plus 160.”
Ben Martin missed the cut (139) at the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
“Eric Cole 86 to one”
Wyndham Clark won the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson; Eric Cole finished T31 (-14).
“I think you can find it at 110 in the space Eric Cole over Maddie Schmid”
Eric Cole finished T31 (-14) while Matti Schmid missed the cut, so Cole won the head-to-head.
“This, of course, is the Belgian [30:08] prodigy, Adrien Dumont de Césart.”
Wyndham Clark won; Adrien Dumont de Chassart missed the cut (139).
“15 to 1 is where you grabbed it. [33:57] I think it's filtering down closer to 12 to 13 to 1, and that's Siwoo Kim.”
Wyndham Clark won the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson; Si Woo Kim finished solo 2nd (-27).
“So I really like Burns on the flip side of it. [21:30] Hideki for me was 20th overall.”
Sam Burns and Hideki Matsuyama both finished T26 at even par at the 2026 PGA Championship, tying the head-to-head (push/dead heat).
“And maybe trust some of my numbers with Alex Noren, because you just said about with Sung Jae with the proximity numbers, you get to the same similar bucket with Alex Noren.”
Alex Noren finished T26 (even) and made the cut while Sungjae Im missed the cut at the 2026 PGA Championship, winning the head-to-head.
“let's start Spencer with Andrew Putnam to make the cut at minus 112 [33:34] minus 110 always go around and shop for the best number”
Andrew Putnam made the cut at the 2026 PGA Championship and finished T55 (+3).
“but i like cameron young”
Cameron Young finished T26 at the 2026 PGA Championship (won by Aaron Rai), so the outright lost.
“Let's stick with the final play on your [58:28] card to win outright here, and that's Bryson DeChambeau at 25-1.”
Bryson DeChambeau missed the cut at the 2026 PGA Championship (won by Aaron Rai), so the outright lost.
“I thought this was good up until the high minus 140s”
Alex Smalley finished T17 (-6), ahead of Alex Noren T31 (-3), winning the matchup.
“Minwoo was the very first ticket that I punched.”
Min Woo Lee did not win the 2026 Truist Championship; Kristoffer Reitan won.
“I took my one shot with Oberg and I ended up grabbing three guys underneath”
Ludvig Aberg did not win the 2026 Truist Championship (Kristoffer Reitan won at -15; Aberg finished -10).
“minus 110 over Ben Griffin, because he's not someone that dominates off the tee.”
Ben Griffin finished 3rd (-12) and Jacob Bridgman finished T65 (+2) at the Cadillac Championship, so Bridgman lost the matchup.
“You'd like Corey Connors to finish in the top 20.”
Corey Conners finished T30 at the Cadillac Championship, outside the top 20.
“value. I think Cameron Young is arguably a 10 to 1 golfer in this field, and I'm going to treat”
Cameron Young went wire-to-wire and won the 2026 Cadillac Championship at Trump National Doral by six shots over Scottie Scheffler.
“Spencer, you have two, the second and third lowest on the board in terms of payout, which is Cam Young”
Collin Morikawa did not win the 2026 Cadillac Championship; Cameron Young won.
“And I thought this price at $120 was way too short because this is Thomas' fifth tournament back.”
Justin Thomas finished T77 at +3 (287); Jacob Bridgeman finished T33 at -7 (277) — Bridgeman won the matchup, so Thomas's moneyline lost. (Thomas +3 (T77) vs Bridgeman -7 (T33))
“This is a full [12:47] fade spot of what I'm looking at for Homa.”
Brian Harman finished T25 at -8 (276), well ahead of Max Homa's T69 -1 (283) — Harman won the matchup. (Harman -8 (T25) vs Homa -1 (T69))
“So I'm fading spawn here, [14:51] but at the end of the day it a 50 price in my model that you getting a plus 130 on So it enough for me to number grab that situation”
Nicolai Højgaard finished T55 at -4 (280); J.J. Spaun finished T25 at -8 (276) — Spaun won the matchup, so Højgaard's moneyline lost. (Højgaard -4 (T55) vs Spaun -8 (T25))
“So I really liked him. [25:39] I'm not giving the name on the show as just an additional option to throw out there.”
Nicolai Hojgaard finished T55 at the 2026 RBC Heritage, outside the top 20.
“So I thought the Henley price was very interesting.”
Russell Henley finished T25 at the 2026 RBC Heritage; Matt Fitzpatrick won.
“I think Fleetwood is a consensus name that is lower than he should be in the market.”
Tommy Fleetwood finished T52 at the 2026 RBC Heritage; Matt Fitzpatrick won.
“But I really like McNeely this week.”
Maverick McNealy finished T16 at the 2026 RBC Heritage; Matt Fitzpatrick won.
“And then Thomas just goes back to the boomer bust answer that I talked about at the beginning part of the show.”
Justin Thomas finished T77 at the 2026 RBC Heritage; Matt Fitzpatrick won.
“I am willing to play [41:39] the field in that spot and feel like I'm at least getting something that is a little bit closer to [41:45] proper.”
Matt Fitzpatrick, part of the 'Big Guns' group, won the tournament in a playoff over Scheffler (also Big Guns) — the field did not produce the winner, so this pick lost. (Fitzpatrick (Big Guns) won the RBC Heritage)
“two times a year for me to say my best play on [19:10] the board is a minus 155 play on a golfer.”
Justin Rose beat Tommy Fleetwood in every sense at the 2026 Masters: Rose opened with a 65 to Fleetwood's 74 in Round 1, and Rose finished T3 while Fleetwood finished T33. (Rose R1 65 vs Fleetwood R1 74; final: Rose T3, Fleetwood T33)
“he's probably my favorite value on the board. I couldn't get there in the outright [36:00] market, but I'm definitely trying to find a way to get exposure to him pretty much in all other [36:04] areas that I can.”
Maverick McNealy finished T18 (-4) at the 2026 Masters, inside the top 30 (cutoff -1/T30).
“And I just thought Rom was too high of an opening number there. [45:45] So, you know, I'm going to grab value where I see it.”
Jon Rahm finished T38 at the 2026 Masters; Rory McIlroy won.
“I really like the number if you can get it at 20.”
Xander Schauffele finished T9 at the 2026 Masters; Rory McIlroy won.
“145 seems a little bit generous, and obviously you've circled it, so you tend to agree. [48:19] Yeah, we've seen him consistently get better at this tournament also.”
Harris English finished T30 at the 2026 Masters; Rory McIlroy won.
“So I'm going to bet Eric Cole here.”
Eric Cole finished T14 (-10) while Seamus Power missed the cut, so Cole won the head-to-head.
“So for me with Olison I do have an outright ticket on him at 62 to one I kind of prefer this though in any of your safety markets”
Thorbjorn Olesen finished T49 (-4) at the Valero Texas Open; J.J. Spaun won the outright.
“And for me with Henley the profile is so crystal clear across the entire board”
Russell Henley missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open; J.J. Spaun won the outright.
“but Adrian Dumont de Chassart, I took him at 105”
Adrien Dumont de Chassart finished T49 (-4) at the Valero Texas Open; J.J. Spaun won.
“but I think the best combination of price plus upside is probably Sepp Strzok at plus 305.”
Sepp Straka missed the cut (even par) at the Valero Texas Open and did not win DraftKings Group C.
“want a little bit of a bigger ticket my second name would be keith mitchell at plus 380 well there you have it sep straka to win group c over on DraftKings sports book The crown is yours That do it for today episode Thanks for tuning in here to the action network podcast”
Keith Mitchell missed the cut (-1) at the Valero Texas Open and did not win DraftKings Group C.
“I actually think the market was too slow to move on this one.”
Gary Woodland won the 2026 Houston Open (-21); JT Poston missed the cut.
“mad dash into the market. But I really like Ricky here for a top 20. I think he's one of the safer”
Rickie Fowler missed the cut at the 2026 Houston Open, so no top-20 finish.
“I really like Minwoo in this tournament. And there is a lot from a statistical perspective”
Min Woo Lee finished T3 (-15), not the outright winner; Gary Woodland won.
“I also bet Nikolai Hoigard. I bet his brother Rasmus Hoigard. And I took Jake Knapp.”
Nicolai Hojgaard finished solo 2nd (-16) at the Houston Open; Gary Woodland won, so the outright lost.
“I also bet Nikolai Hoigard. I bet his brother Rasmus Hoigard. And I took Jake Knapp.”
Rasmus Hojgaard did not win the Houston Open; Gary Woodland took the title.
“I also bet Nikolai Hoigard. I bet his brother Rasmus Hoigard. And I took Jake Knapp.”
Jake Knapp did not win the Houston Open; Gary Woodland won at 21-under.
“spencer you like rio hisa tune over taylor pendrith and at least [9:02] from you know an analytics perspective he's very accurate off the tee”
Ryo Hisatsune made the cut (T30, -2) while Taylor Pendrith missed it, winning the 72-hole head-to-head.
“talk to me about alex smalley a top 20 placement bet here at three [20:42] to one”
Alex Smalley finished T46, outside the top 20.
“I have an outright ticket on him also.”
Matt Fitzpatrick won the Valspar; Alex Smalley finished T46, not the outright winner.
“you're going with JJ Spahn at 40 to 1. He looked really good at the Players' Championship.”
Matt Fitzpatrick won the Valspar; JJ Spaun missed the cut (148).
“me. Let's jump into some head to heads. And Spencer, you're up first here taking Adam Scott”
Adam Scott finished T56 (+2) while Justin Rose finished T13 (-6) at THE PLAYERS 2026, so Scott lost the head-to-head.
“Like for me, my preferred route would probably be a top 20.”
Max McGreevy finished T50 (+1) at THE PLAYERS 2026, missing the top 20.
“I bet him outright at 250 to one and I going to take a very cheap shot there”
Cameron Young won THE PLAYERS 2026; Max McGreevy finished T50, so the outright lost.
“I took him in a matchup against Sam Burns.”
Jacob Bridgeman finished T5 versus Sam Burns T13 at THE PLAYERS 2026, winning the head-to-head.
“But I got this at 40 to one when it opened on Monday. And this number has been completely slashed in half. Like there are 20s in the space. I do think the best price is at 24 to one on DraftKings.”
Cameron Young won THE PLAYERS 2026; Si Woo Kim finished T50, so the outright lost.
“I got him against Brooks Koepka in the 130s.”
Sepp Straka finished T8 (-8) versus Brooks Koepka T13 (-6) at THE PLAYERS 2026, winning the head-to-head.
“I'm going to bet on that upside here. I think that there is a little bit more volatility because we”
Chris Gotterup finished T18 (-3) and made the cut while Justin Thomas missed the cut (+14), so Gotterup won the head-to-head.
“Matthew Fitzpatrick jumped out to me, and you like him in the top five at plus 550.”
Matthew Fitzpatrick finished T41 (+1) at Bay Hill, well outside the top 5.
“Like one of those ways that I went about it, if you want just like a secondary wager, is”
Fitzpatrick and Hideki Matsuyama both finished T41 at +1, tying the 72-hole head-to-head, so it pushes.
“ever hear me do again on the show but for a one week one off situation I going to take Scotty Scheffler All right If Scotty the shot let get to some chasers here And luckily Kyle is bringing three more head We can talk to some people that probably aren”
Scottie Scheffler finished T24 (-2); Akshay Bhatia won, so the Scheffler-to-win ticket lost.
“I split my exposure up by going Siwoo over Cameron Young.”
Cameron Young finished T3 (-12) versus Si Woo Kim's T13 (-5), so the Kim-over-Young head-to-head lost.
“And I'm going to bet him at 45 to one in the without Scottie market.”
Pierceson Coody missed the cut (+5), so the to-win (without-Scottie market) ticket lost; Akshay Bhatia won the event.
“And so I'm going to take the USA to win here at”
Europe won the 2025 Ryder Cup 15-13 at Bethpage Black, so USA -150 lost.
“Scotty Scheffler to be the first man out in singles for the USA. [19:11] That's a plus 265 number over on DraftKings.”
Cameron Young led off the Sunday singles in Match 1; Scottie Scheffler went out fourth, so first-man-out +265 lost.
“The over-under number is one. [23:58] It's minus 138, so you've got to pay a little juice. [24:00] But I like the over on that.”
Ben Griffin went 1-1 at the 2025 Ryder Cup (Bethpage Black): lost Friday fourballs with Bryson DeChambeau, then beat Rasmus Hojgaard in Sunday singles, for exactly 1 total point earned — a push against the over-1-point line. (Griffin record: 1-1-0, 1.0 total points.)
“And I personally decided to do this with Rory McIlroy at eight and a half to one.”
Tommy Fleetwood won the 2025 TOUR Championship; McIlroy did not win. (Fleetwood won by 3)
“I took Harry Hall minus 125 over Brian [20:38] Harmon.”
At the 2025 TOUR Championship, Brian Harman finished T13 (-10) while Harry Hall finished T17 (-9), so Harman beat Hall in this matchup pick. (Harman T13 (-10, 270) vs Hall T17 (-9, 271))
“So I will go with Sung Jae in minus one 10 over Nick Taylor.”
At the 2025 TOUR Championship, Nick Taylor finished T19 (-8) while Sungjae Im finished T27 (even), so Taylor beat Im in this matchup pick. (Taylor T19 (-8, 272) vs Im T27 (E, 280))
“I'm going to take Cameron Young at 35 to one as [35:15] what is just my one of only two outrights that I have this week.”
Fleetwood won the 2025 TOUR Championship; Cameron Young did not win. (Fleetwood won)
“Ludwig Oberg at 30 to one.”
Scheffler won The Open at -17; Ludvig Aberg did not win. (Scheffler champion, -17)
“And with that in mind, I took Robert McIntyre at 40 to one.”
Scheffler won The Open; Robert MacIntyre finished T7, did not win. (MacIntyre T7 (-10))
“I like Justin Thomas at 60 to one.”
Scheffler won The Open at -17; Justin Thomas did not win. (Scheffler champion, -17)
“I took Russell Henley at 80 to 1.”
Scottie Scheffler won the 2025 Open Championship at Royal Portrush; Russell Henley did not win. (Scheffler -17, four shots clear of Harris English.)
“I took Andrew Novak at 250 to one.”
Scheffler won the 2025 Open; Andrew Novak did not win. (Scheffler -17.)
“I took Maverick McNeely.”
Scheffler won the 2025 Open; Maverick McNeely did not win. (Scheffler -17.)
“The value for me stood more with Jon Rahman.”
J.J. Spaun won the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont; Jon Rahm finished T7 (+4). (Rahm T7 at +4.)
“I took Joaquin Neiman at 35 to one on Monday.”
Spaun won the 2025 U.S. Open; Joaquin Niemann missed the cut. (Niemann MC at +10 (150).)
“but I did take Tommy Fleetwood at 40 to one.”
Spaun won the 2025 U.S. Open; Tommy Fleetwood missed the cut. (Fleetwood MC at +9 (149).)
“I ended up taking Harris English at 100 to one.”
Spaun won the 2025 U.S. Open; Harris English made the cut but finished T59 (+18). (English T59 at +18.)
“I ended up betting Bud Cawley in a matchup over Gary Woodland.”
72-hole matchup: both missed the cut, but Bud Cauley (+9) beat Gary Woodland (+10). (Cauley MC +9 (149) vs Woodland MC +10 (150).)
“but I took Chris Goddard at plus 120.”
Chris Gotterup made the cut at the 2025 U.S. Open (cut at +7); +120 cashes. (Gotterup made cut at +5, finished T36.)
“And then I took Matthew McCarty to make the cut at plus 110.”
Matthew McCarty missed the 2025 U.S. Open cut (cut at +7); +110 busts. (McCarty MC at +20 (160).)
“But I really like that Xander price at 25 to 1.”
Scottie Scheffler won the 2025 PGA Championship; Schauffele did not win. (Scheffler -11, 5-shot win)
“This is probably more of [28:20] the top 40 at two to one. I've seen some interesting numbers on this golfer to make the [28:25] cut, but Thorbjorn Olsen was a name for me”
Thorbjorn Olesen finished T33 at the 2025 PGA Championship, inside top 40. (Olesen T33 (E, 284))
“the matchup that I will give out on here is I took Bud Cawley [28:49] minus 120 over Lucas Glover.”
Lucas Glover (T37) beat Bud Cauley (T72) in the head-to-head matchup. (Cauley T72 (+10) vs Glover T37 (+1))
“I took Robert McIntyre.”
Rory McIlroy won the 2025 Masters in a playoff over Justin Rose; MacIntyre did not win. (McIlroy won the 2025 Masters)
“I took Russell Henley at 55-1.”
Rory McIlroy won the 2025 Masters; Russell Henley did not win. (McIlroy won the 2025 Masters)
“For an outright bet, I'm going to gamble on that potential.”
Rory McIlroy won the 2025 Masters; Min Woo Lee did not win. (McIlroy won the 2025 Masters)
“That's Brooks Koepka at 40 to 1.”
Brooks Koepka missed the cut at the 2025 Masters; Rory McIlroy won. (Koepka shot 74-75 (MC))
“One of the ones I gave on Monday was Patrick Reed minus 125 over Sahith Tagala. [29:00] You might have to shop around for that price still.”
Patrick Reed (3rd, -9) beat Sahith Theegala (T29, E) at the 2025 Masters. (Reed -9 vs Theegala E)
“where you can find Keegan Bradley over Tom Kim.”
Keegan Bradley missed the cut (+3) while Tom Kim made the cut and played all four rounds at the 2025 Masters. (Bradley MC, Kim made cut)
“I ended up starting with Victor Hovland at 22 to one.”
Scottie Scheffler won 2024 Olympic men's golf gold; Hovland finished T30 (-4). (Hovland T30.)
“And then I bet Shubanker Sharma at 400 to 1.”
Scottie Scheffler won 2024 Olympic men's golf gold; Shubhankar Sharma did not win. (Gold: Scheffler -19.)
“I went with Morikawa. I talked about this being Xander versus Morikawa for me.”
Xander Schauffele won the 2024 Open; Morikawa finished T16. (Morikawa T16 (+2))
“So I went very heavy with the Morikawa Fleetwood Hatton route. I don't normally have three players sub 30 to one that opens a card for me.”
Schauffele won the Open; Fleetwood missed the cut. (Fleetwood MC (+9))
“So I went very heavy with the Morikawa Fleetwood Hatton route.”
Schauffele won the Open; Hatton missed the cut. (Hatton MC (+8))
“I ended up taking Cameron Smith at 50-1.”
Schauffele won the Open; Cameron Smith missed the cut. (C. Smith MC (+12))
“I ended up taking Alex Norn at 135 to one.”
Schauffele won the Open; Alex Noren finished T13. (Noren T13 (+1))
“I ended up betting Colin Morikawa over him at minus 120.”
72-hole matchup: Morikawa (T16) finished ahead of DeChambeau, who missed the cut. (Morikawa T16 (+2) vs DeChambeau MC (+9))
“My outright card, I am going to go to Xander. I think 11-1 is the very cutoff point of where I'm still willing to get to that number.”
Bryson DeChambeau won the 2024 U.S. Open; Schauffele finished T7. (Schauffele T7 (-1))
“Minwoo in the 80s is a great price. You might be able to shop around and find a little bit better there.”
Bryson DeChambeau won the 2024 U.S. Open; Min Woo Lee finished T21. (Min Woo Lee T21 (+5))
“With Pat on Hideki at 55 to one.”
Bryson DeChambeau won the 2024 U.S. Open; Matsuyama did not win. (DeChambeau won at -6)
“Christian Bezadenhout, minus 120 over Adam Hadwin.”
Bezuidenhout finished T32 (+7) while Hadwin missed the cut, so Bezuidenhout beat Hadwin in the tournament matchup. (Bezuidenhout T32; Hadwin MC)
“But the other one is Minwoo Lee minus 114 over Sepp Straka.”
Min Woo Lee finished T21 (+5) while Sepp Straka finished T56 (+12), so Min Woo Lee won the matchup. (Min Woo Lee T21 vs Straka T56)
“The very first outright bet that I placed was on Xander Shoffley at 22 to one.”
Xander Schauffele did not win the 2024 Masters; Scottie Scheffler won. (Scheffler -11 winner)
“Matthew Fitzpatrick plus 130 for a top 20 and a sprinkle outright.”
Matthew Fitzpatrick finished T22 at the 2024 Masters, outside top 20. (Fitzpatrick T22 (+4))
“Well, let's talk a little bit more about these safety markets and we'll transition here into Austin Eckro to make the cut at minus 110.”
Austin Eckroat missed the cut at the 2024 Masters. (Eckroat 74-77, CUT)
“but I'm going to go with Harris English here for a top 20 at plus 345.”
Harris English finished T22 at the 2024 Masters, outside top 20. (English T22 (+4))
“I'm going to go with Chris Kirk over Eric Van Royen.”
Chris Kirk (T16) finished ahead of Erik van Rooyen (T55) at the Masters. (Kirk +2 vs van Rooyen +13)
“So, you know, I think two names that really quickly pop up from [9:29] that list would be Xander Shoffley, 25 to one. If you shop around, you can find him as high as 28 to [9:34] one.”
Brian Harman won the 2023 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool; Xander Schauffele finished tied for 17th at -2 — per CBS Sports / Wikipedia. (Schauffele T17 (-2))
“Patrick Cantlay at 28 to one would be the second name there. My model's always believed an [9:39] open championship has been the most likely major location for either of those two, if they're going [9:44] to win at historically.”
Brian Harman won the 2023 Open Championship; Patrick Cantlay did not win — per CBS Sports. (Harman won by 6 shots)
“I took Terrell Hatton at 33 to one last week. [10:41] I did that when I filmed the gimme with Jason Sobel.”
Brian Harman won the 2023 Open Championship; Tyrrell Hatton finished tied for 20th at -1 — per Wikipedia. (Hatton T20 (-1))
“I took Max Homa at 60 to one. This was a [11:15] golfer that the three of us talked about during the US Open when I also grabbed him at 30 to one.”
Brian Harman won the 2023 Open Championship; Max Homa finished tied for 10th at -4 — per Wikipedia. (Homa T10 (-4))
“And then I did wrap up my card with Jason Day at 125 to one.”
Brian Harman won the 2023 Open Championship; Jason Day finished tied for 2nd at -7, six shots back — per PGA Tour / CBS Sports. (Day T2 (-7))
“Well, I do have this one in. [21:45] Jason Day, top 10, 7-1.”
Jason Day finished tied for 2nd at the 2023 Open Championship, which qualifies as top 10 — per PGA Tour / CBS Sports. (Day T2 (-7))
“And then I will double [22:18] down on the Tony Finau call with Nick. [22:21] I think 41st or better is a very intriguing bet that you can find out there”
Tony Finau missed the cut at the 2023 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool, finishing at +6 through 36 holes — per Deseret News / Golf Digest. (Finau MC (+6 through 36 holes))
“And I thought the best answer for this was I jumped on Terrell Hatton at 40 to 1”
Wyndham Clark won the 2023 U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club on June 18, 2023; Tyrrell Hatton finished 27th at +2 and did not win (PGA Tour / CBS Sports). (Hatton finished T27)
“I'm going to say Victor Hovland anywhere between that 17 to 20 to one range right now.”
Wyndham Clark won the 2023 U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club on June 18, 2023; Viktor Hovland did not win (CNN / CBS Sports).
“I think Denny McCarthy at 58th or better is a super intriguing price to look into”
Denny McCarthy made the cut and finished T20 at the 2023 U.S. Open at LACC, clearing the '58th or better' threshold comfortably (FanDuel Research / Golf Post). (T20 finish (1-over par))
“I think you can consider him on FanDuel as a top 20 bet at plus 280.”
Mito Pereira missed the cut at the 2023 U.S. Open, shooting 71-72 and finishing well outside the top 20 (Wikipedia, 2023 U.S. Open).
“I also have a top 40 bet on him at plus 220 over at FanDuel.”
Seamus Power missed the cut at the 2023 U.S. Open at LACC, shooting 71-76 (+7), failing to finish in the top 40 (wcyb.com / Fox Sports scorecards).
“So I'll start with Patrick Cantlay. I've seen this [10:17] as high as 28 to one. I was fortunate to be able to grab a 33 to one months ago when I bet him for [10:23] all four majors.”
Patrick Cantlay did not win the 2022 Open Championship. Cameron Smith won at -20. Cantlay's finish was not in the top finishers. Source: Wikipedia, 2022 Open Championship.
“I bet Dustin Johnson at 40 to one. It sounds outlandish to say right now, [10:53] but I do believe Dustin is going to win this tournament.”
Dustin Johnson did not win the 2022 Open Championship; he finished T6 at -13. Cameron Smith won. Source: PGA Tour past results / Wikipedia. (T6, -13)
“I took Adam Scott at a hundred to one.”
Adam Scott did not win the 2022 Open Championship; he finished T15 at -10. Cameron Smith won. Source: PGA Tour past results. (T15, -10)
“I took Webb Simpson at 160 to one.”
Webb Simpson missed the cut at the 2022 Open Championship at +1. Cameron Smith won. Source: CBS Sports missed cuts article. (MC, +1)
“I took Thomas Peters 130 to one.”
Thomas Pieters did not win the 2022 Open Championship; he finished T28 at -8. Cameron Smith won. Source: PGA Tour past results / DraftKings Network leaderboard. (T28, -8)
“And then I did a number grab with Sung Jae Im at 80 to one.”
Sungjae Im did not win the 2022 Open Championship; he finished T81 at +4. Cameron Smith won. Source: PGA Tour past results. (T81, +4)
“that would be Tommy Fleetwood minus 118 over Terrell Hatton at BetMGM.”
Tommy Fleetwood finished T4 (-14) and Tyrrell Hatton finished T11 (-11) at the 2022 Open Championship. Fleetwood outscored Hatton over the tournament. Source: Wikipedia, 2022 Open Championship leaderboard. (Fleetwood T4 (-14) vs Hatton T11 (-11))
“But I will start with Adam Scott, top 40, plus 155 FanDuel.”
Adam Scott finished T15 at -10 at the 2022 Open Championship, well inside the top 40. Source: PGA Tour past results. (T15, -10)
“I grabbed Thomas Peters, as I just mentioned a second ago, [20:12] top 40 plus 150 fan duel, that is plus 130 draft Kings.”
Thomas Pieters finished T28 at -8 at the 2022 Open Championship, inside the top 40. Source: PGA Tour past results / DraftKings Network leaderboard. (T28, -8)
“And then I ended with Russell Henley, top 40 plus 240 on FanDuel, plus 150 on DraftKings.”
Russell Henley finished T62 at -3 at the 2022 Open Championship, outside the top 40. Source: PGA Tour past results. (T62, -3)
“I like Aaron Wise's top 40 at plus 100 on DraftKings. He's minus 140 on FanDuel. I didn't necessarily envision myself going into this week and punching a plus 100 ticket on Wise to land inside the top 40.”
Aaron Wise finished tied for 27th (+5) at the 2022 US Open, comfortably inside the top 40. (T27, 285 (+5))
“I grabbed Harold Varner, the third top 40 plus 115 FanDuel minus 135 DraftKings.”
Harold Varner III missed the cut at the 2022 US Open, finishing outside the top 40. (CUT, 145 (+5))
“Brian Harmon, top 40 plus 165 fan duel. Consider this more of a number grab than anything else.”
Brian Harman finished tied for 43rd at the 2022 US Open, outside the top 40. (T43, 288 (+8))
“take him on with the man of the week for me, Aaron Wise at minus 105. That number opened at plus 105 and has already moved 10 cents. So I would probably act quickly since I think we could see this climb by another 10 or 20 points before Thursday.”
Aaron Wise (T27, +5) finished one shot ahead of Davis Riley (T31, +6) over the tournament, winning the head-to-head matchup. (Wise 285 (+5) beat Riley 286 (+6))
“the one I will give is Siwoo Kim to be the top South Korean golfer at plus 330”
Si Woo Kim missed the cut; fellow South Korean Tom Kim finished 23rd (+3) as the top South Korean golfer in the field. (Si Woo Kim CUT (145, +5); Tom Kim T23 (283, +3) was top Korean finisher)
“The two I'll give on this show, which are two plays that I have mentioned multiple times, will be, I will start with Harold Varner at 100 to 1.”
Harold Varner III missed the cut, so he did not win the 2022 US Open. (CUT, 145 (+5))
“And then the second choice is Aaron Wise I have each of them as top 13 targets in this field when I run the event for upside over a shorter term sample size than I typically use”
Aaron Wise tied for 27th; Matt Fitzpatrick won the 2022 US Open. (T27, 285 (+5); winner Fitzpatrick 274 (-6))
“But I like Tommy Fleetwood minus 110 over Bubba Watson on DraftKings.”
Bubba Watson finished the 2022 Masters at -3 (T13) with a final-round 68, while Tommy Fleetwood finished at -2 (T21); Watson beat Fleetwood head-to-head (Masters.com / PGA Tour past results). (Watson: -3 (T13); Fleetwood: -2 (T21))
“I like Rory to come top 20 at minus 125 on DraftKings.”
Rory McIlroy finished second at the 2022 Masters (-7, 3 shots behind winner Scottie Scheffler), comfortably inside the top 20 (Golf Digest / PGA Tour). (McIlroy: T2 (-7))
“And that would be Cameron Young to be the top debutant at 8-1 on BetMGM.”
Min Woo Lee was the best-finishing debutant at the 2022 Masters (T6); Cameron Young missed the cut at +10 and was not the top debutant (Sporting Life / PGA Tour 2022 Masters results).
“So Rory McIlroy 20 to one, [13:54] I wasn't planning to do this when the week started, but something changed for me on Sunday when I made [13:59] a few minor alterations to my model.”
Scottie Scheffler won the 2022 Masters at -10, defeating Rory McIlroy (2nd, -7) by 3 shots. McIlroy did not win. (masters.com final results, ESPN leaderboard) (McIlroy T2 (-7); Scheffler winner (-10))
“Rory is plus 330 on DraftKings there to win that group.”
Rory McIlroy finished 2nd (-7). Of his group — Hovland (T7), Morikawa (5th), Koepka (MC), Spieth (MC) — Rory placed highest, winning the group bet. (CBS Sports 2022 Masters leaderboard; CBS Sports missed cuts report) (McIlroy 2nd; Hovland T7; Morikawa 5th; Koepka MC; Spieth MC)