Spencer Aguiar

“[24:10] What else has you gravitating towards this number 25 to 1, Spencer?”

Cameron Young did not win the tournament; Scottie Scheffler did. (Cameron Young: T39, 280; Scottie Scheffler: 1st, 263)

“[33:47] And I think you're for the price at 35 to 1. [33:49] I'm not going to be sitting on the sidelines on Sunday, even if it means I'm going to have”

Si Woo Kim finished second rather than winning; Scottie Scheffler won. (Si Woo Kim: 2nd, 271; Scottie Scheffler: 1st, 263)

“[21:02] there's not value to be had in a top 20 market. [21:05] So I thought at three to one for a top 20, very similar price to what I took a couple [21:10] weeks ago. [21:10] I'm going to go back to the well here and try to see if we can find a little bit value once again on”

Christiaan Bezuidenhout finished T38, outside the top-20 threshold. (Christiaan Bezuidenhout T38; top-20 threshold)

“[21:15] Bezade and Helt. For your second one in the placement wager bucket, we have a top 20 for [21:20] Lee Hodges. And the obvious pushback right away is he's only made seven out of 10 cuts. He has just [21:26] one top 10 in 2026. So by no mean is he coming in with a ton of momentum. But maybe this is because [21:32] I come from the college football and college basketball world. They do a lot of the blind [21:36] resumes where they'll just throw up the stats, the wins, the strength of schedule, and say, [21:41] you go ahead and pick because there's a lot of bias in the college community about those [21:46] name brands. [21:46] You end up paying that premium for it. [21:49] He kind of moves in the opposite direction because when you look at it, he's in just [21:52] a handful of players in this field that rank above average in all 10 key categories that [21:58] predict success. [21:59] So he's in a very similar bucket with Cam Young, the defending champion, and Jackson [22:03] Koivin. [22:03] And so to get him at nine to two to finish top 20, that seems like a bet that I want to tail. [22:10] Anything else that I left out? Why you like Lee in the spot?”

Lee Hodges finished T72, outside the top-20 threshold. (Lee Hodges T72; top-20 threshold)

“[24:24] Let's not turn into your outrights. You're bringing four to the table, including Lee Hodges. [24:28] But let's start first with Jackson Koivin, 20 to one, tied for fifth here in 2025 as a sponsor exemption and knows the course very well.”

Michael Brennan won the Wyndham Championship, so Jackson Koivun did not win outright. (Winner: Michael Brennan)

“[27:25] Next up on your outright card, Ryan Gerrard, 32 to 1.”

Michael Brennan won the Wyndham Championship, so Ryan Gerard did not win outright. (Winner: Michael Brennan)

“[29:57] Speaking of that 30 to 1 range, 35 to 1, Ben Griffin, you look at the last five years at this event, he has a fourth place finish, a tie for seventh, a tie for 11th.”

Michael Brennan won the Wyndham Championship, so Ben Griffin did not win outright. (Winner: Michael Brennan)

“[31:46] We talked already about Lee Hodges, but just, you know, for the official number 150 to one,”

Michael Brennan won the Wyndham Championship, so Lee Hodges did not win outright. (Winner: Michael Brennan)

“[32:39] would throw it out there if you don't believe he's going to actually win, target him as a first round [32:43] leader bet. It's a golfer that can get hot really early on Thursday. Yeah. A hundred to one is not [32:48] bad.”

Lee Hodges shot 66 in the opening round while first-round leader Beau Hossler shot 61. (Lee Hodges R1 66; Beau Hossler R1 61)

“[22:41] Spencer, you're going back to the well in terms of a player to make the cut, [22:45] just about an even money. [22:46] Chandler Phillips, minus 105.”

Phillips missed the cut at +1, so the make-the-cut bet lost. (Phillips CUT (+1))

“[31:09] resume. Let's get to our outrights here before we wrap the show. Spencer, you like Nikolaj Hoygaard [31:13] and the aforementioned Jackson Sober.”

Thorbjornsen won at -18 while Højgaard finished T61 at -2, so Højgaard's outright lost. (Thorbjornsen 1st (-18); Højgaard T61 (-2))

“Spencer, you like Nikolaj Hoygaard [31:13] and the aforementioned Jackson Sober.”

Thorbjornsen won at -18 while Suber finished T50 at -4, so Suber's outright lost. (Thorbjornsen 1st (-18); Suber T50 (-4))

“he's 65th overall for me. And that's a lot of the data points that are pushing in the wrong direction for him So you know I grabbing this with the understanding that I don know a bunch about Ben James other than a pristine amateur who is at a very young age shown a very high ceiling And I think when you have limited sample size that kind of how you want to see it It's almost like you want it to be a young golfer who is in the midst of a breakout rather than some journeyman that has just found his way back to the PGA Tour that has a couple tournaments. So I'm kind of more willing to trust the Ben James data based off of that. And then the flip side of it is the Sam Stevens profile to where some of the weighted strokes gain total. You look last year, he was the number one player in my model for this exact tournament with the way the stats were trending in weighted strokes gain total. He was one of the biggest upside climbers that I had in this tournament. I bet him to win this event. Very unfortunate to not get the victory over Kurt Kitayama in that he had himself right in the mix to do it. You go and you look at this go around now. you know, you're outside of the top 90. I just think it's a different profile that's really being hurt by the iron play. Any of those long distance marks that I'm looking for, he's 101st from 200 plus yards. He's 121st on the year on these easy approach courses. And that just means creating opportunities. He's 89th when the greens and regulations are easy. The off the tee acumen is going to look great. He's a top 10 golfer and that's where this upside is going to sit with him. But I just think, and I'm hoping in this situation when he opened at 110, Ben James, that is, that there was value to be had against a profile in Stevens that was being boosted because of past results.”

PGA TOUR's 3M Open leaderboard lists Sam Stevens T60 at -4 and Ben James CUT at -1, confirming James lost the head-to-head. (Sam Stevens T60, -4 (280); Ben James CUT, -1 (141))

“talking placement wagers davis chatfield to make the cut at even money this one got my attention because his resume doesn't necessarily scream at me but it i mean just to back it up at one point he missed six of seven cuts so obviously you wanted to go in the opposite direction but july has been his month tied 33rd at the john deere tied fifth at the isco championship and tied 34th at the pun uh punasca now punta cana championship so now granted these are not the most difficult places to you know put up some good scores not the most challenging fields but that's 12 straight rounds of 72 or better, including nine rounds in the 60s. So maybe he is a hot hand after all. Were you surprised to see him at even money out here in the market? Not necessarily surprised. I mean, I think he's very undervalued in the market. I ended up betting him as a pure long shot to win this thing at 500 to one early on Monday.”

PGA TOUR lists Jackson Koivun as the 2026 3M Open winner, so Davis Chatfield did not win outright. (Jackson Koivun, winner)

“Now, as we get to your outrights, you're bringing three to the table. Doug Gimm, 50-1. Mac Meissner, 66-1. Max Homa, 55-1. Let's start with Gimm, a former Texas Longhorn teammate of Scotty Shuffler. He shows up to this course. Arguably, he's one of the best fits in terms of his game to the track that he's going to be on. He ranks in the top 10 in comp course history at TPC Twin Cities alongside Max Homa, who we'll discuss in a moment. He's also top 10 in total driving and top 40 in both strokes gained off the tee and approach. So it seems like this is a perfect fit for him to overachieve. Now, this number is probably not going to last at 50 to 1. Where's your cutoff for Gim? I have proper in the low 40s for Gim. Like, I think there is value to be found on it there. You take somebody like Mac Meissner, we'll get to Mac Meissner in a second. Somebody asked me in my Discord chat yesterday, Michael, because Mac Meissner always seems to climb inside of the top five or ten of a lot of these recent tournaments. I've mentioned him a bunch on here. Does Mac Meissner get an extra 10% weight for being Mac Meissner in? I'm trying to look into that right now to figure out if that's the case because we are seeing these massive overcorrections of my sheet of what's proper. But if you look for Gim here, there is so much to like. It's everything that you just talked about and I don't want to regurgitate all the same stats with it. The one thing that I will add though to the mix of it is we've seen par four scoring be a very impactful output for TPC Twin Cities in the past. There are some easy par fours and there are some difficult par fours. And golfers that have been able to take advantage of both ends of the spectrum there have really been able to work themselves up the leaderboard. Doug Gim, and this is including Scotty Scheffler, so this is like a noteworthy return. Number one expected player at TPC Twin Cities on these par four ranges that we're getting. So you add that to the birdie or better versus bogey rate in my sheet and all of the TPC comp courses that you talked about where he also inside of the top 10 of my model in all those areas I think this is a really nice high ceiling play of what you get on Doug Gim here”

PGA TOUR lists Jackson Koivun as the 2026 3M Open winner, so Doug Ghim did not win outright. (Jackson Koivun, winner)

“Now, as we get to your outrights, you're bringing three to the table. Doug Gimm, 50-1. Mac Meissner, 66-1. Max Homa, 55-1. Let's start with Gimm, a former Texas Longhorn teammate of Scotty Shuffler. He shows up to this course. Arguably, he's one of the best fits in terms of his game to the track that he's going to be on. He ranks in the top 10 in comp course history at TPC Twin Cities alongside Max Homa, who we'll discuss in a moment. He's also top 10 in total driving and top 40 in both strokes gained off the tee and approach. So it seems like this is a perfect fit for him to overachieve. Now, this number is probably not going to last at 50 to 1. Where's your cutoff for Gim? I have proper in the low 40s for Gim. Like, I think there is value to be found on it there. You take somebody like Mac Meissner, we'll get to Mac Meissner in a second. Somebody asked me in my Discord chat yesterday, Michael, because Mac Meissner always seems to climb inside of the top five or ten of a lot of these recent tournaments. I've mentioned him a bunch on here. Does Mac Meissner get an extra 10% weight for being Mac Meissner in? I'm trying to look into that right now to figure out if that's the case because we are seeing these massive overcorrections of my sheet of what's proper. But if you look for Gim here, there is so much to like. It's everything that you just talked about and I don't want to regurgitate all the same stats with it. The one thing that I will add though to the mix of it is we've seen par four scoring be a very impactful output for TPC Twin Cities in the past. There are some easy par fours and there are some difficult par fours. And golfers that have been able to take advantage of both ends of the spectrum there have really been able to work themselves up the leaderboard. Doug Gim, and this is including Scotty Scheffler, so this is like a noteworthy return. Number one expected player at TPC Twin Cities on these par four ranges that we're getting. So you add that to the birdie or better versus bogey rate in my sheet and all of the TPC comp courses that you talked about where he also inside of the top 10 of my model in all those areas I think this is a really nice high ceiling play of what you get on Doug Gim here And as you said, numbers move quickly. You can actually shop around at this particular point. I don't know if it's still existing as we're recording this. I know there was a 59 to one available. I don't know if you can still find that in the space, bringing the 50 because that was the most readily available price. but like definitely do your due diligence, shop around, see what the best number is, but you should be able to find it out of value, even if you can get into the high 40s. Gim has put it together and been in the mix on Sunday, both the Dessert Classic and New Orleans, as well as the John Deere. So he's proven that, you know, to bring a ticket like that into Sunday afternoon, gives you some opportunities, at least some outs to be able to recoup some value. So at least there's been a proof of concept in terms of his game. Let's talk about Homa for a moment here. Also an excellent course fit. He's never missed a cut here in three 3M open starts. He's made nine of his last 10 cuts across his worldwide profile with five top 30s in that stretch. He also ranks ninth in the field in terms of strokes gained at TPC courses this season. So his form seems to be trending up. He's gained strokes on approach in four of his last five starts, including a 10th strokes gained approach finish last week at Birkdale. He also gained strokes off the tee in five of his last six with a runner-up finish at the John Deere Classic last month. So there's a lot to like. So explain why he's even longer odds than Gim in this situation. Yeah, I mean, I do think that there's less upside to be found with Max Homa. That's kind of how my sheet sees it also, even if there's value on the number here at 55 to one. I am somebody, I mean, anybody who's listened to the show, you do not hear me pick Max Homa very often. Like, this is the anti-whatever you normally hear of the Mac Meissner's on the show. But I took Max Homa. I kind of noticed the stats trending at Birkdale in round four. I had him in a matchup against Echeverria on Sunday. I think Homa played decent enough to get the job done. I mean, Echeverria ended up blowing up, thankfully, to where there was a no-sweat winner there. But Homa was so bad, Michael, for what felt like multiple years, where we could just not get back on track for a guy who had won multiple times for a very short duration of PGA Tour events. And when I look at Homa I talked about like I don want to bet him in a lot of these spots because he the first name that always going to get that price to be slashed in half or even more than half He a fan favorite that is fun on X and people want to root for in the second that there any life or even when there is life that's being shown. I think there's an overcorrection that happens in the market. And for whatever reason, during this, uh, this recent run of success that he's had, you kind of saw people buy back in after his John Deere performance when he went to the Isco, where he was one of the favorites there. And then he came 39th in that tournament. And I feel like there has been a letdown where people don't want to buy into this now because of what he did at the Isco. I'm just trusting the data in this spot. This is a top five overall player for me. I honestly think he probably plays better as a top 20 bet than anything else. I'm kind of just taking a number grab there at 55 to one and hoping for the best with it. But the overall safety profile is the strongest mover for, as I talked about, a golfer for two or three years. The data's gone in the wrong direction. For him to be holding as steadily as he is, as I've talked about for other players in the past, like three tournaments, five tournaments, even a year's worth of tournaments is not going to necessarily overly move what a past performance outlook would look like for somebody. So when I saw home a fourth, Tom Kim's a very similar situation for me. Like when these guys start popping, I start respecting it because these are not usually names that my model's overly in love with. And I don't have a Tom Kim bet this week. You can add Tom Kim right to this mix of all these options we're talking about. Another top seven player in pretty much any iteration of my model. Let me give you an opportunity to get on your soapbox here for people kind of pushing back on the Mac Meissner love because they could point to the fact that, you know, strokes gains, you know, overall, he's kind of middle of the pack. I think he's just barely top 20 in this field. There's not necessarily, you know, course specific or track specific history or really good form as of late to be able to point to him as a value in the same bucket as Gim and Homa. So like, what was the impetus to bet him at this number? Or is it just loyalty to a guy that your model continues to say is undervalued. I mean, I think he's the best value on the board for whatever that's worth.”

PGA TOUR lists Jackson Koivun as the 2026 3M Open winner, so Mac Meissner did not win outright. (Jackson Koivun, winner)

“Let's talk about Homa for a moment here. Also an excellent course fit. He's never missed a cut here in three 3M open starts. He's made nine of his last 10 cuts across his worldwide profile with five top 30s in that stretch. He also ranks ninth in the field in terms of strokes gained at TPC courses this season. So his form seems to be trending up. He's gained strokes on approach in four of his last five starts, including a 10th strokes gained approach finish last week at Birkdale. He also gained strokes off the tee in five of his last six with a runner-up finish at the John Deere Classic last month. So there's a lot to like. So explain why he's even longer odds than Gim in this situation. Yeah, I mean, I do think that there's less upside to be found with Max Homa. That's kind of how my sheet sees it also, even if there's value on the number here at 55 to one. I am somebody, I mean, anybody who's listened to the show, you do not hear me pick Max Homa very often. Like, this is the anti-whatever you normally hear of the Mac Meissner's on the show. But I took Max Homa.”

PGA TOUR lists Jackson Koivun as the 2026 3M Open winner, so Max Homa did not win outright. (Jackson Koivun, winner)

“Spencer, you're going with Justin Thomas minus 125 over JJ Spahn.”

PGA TOUR's Scottish Open leaderboard lists J.J. Spaun at -3 and Justin Thomas at -2, confirming Thomas lost the head-to-head. (J.J. Spaun -3 (277); Justin Thomas -2 (278))

“what ends up occurring from it. We head now to close out the show with our outrights one each. Spencer, you're going with Ludvig Aberg at 25 to one. And we all know the rap on Oberg, all Swedish, no Finnish. He's just won twice on tour. He hasn't won this year despite six top tens and 10 top 25s. He's always knocking on the door. But like JT, who I mentioned earlier, he's a perfect fit from a profile perspective to win here, grading out above average in all those key strokes gained areas that I mentioned. He's also currently top 10 in the field in strokes gained via approach, the single most predictive stat for this week's conditions, or at least you can make the arguments so in terms of like what drew you to him that's my first question and the follow-up is for all of those haters who say yes he's always the bridesmaid never the bride yet maybe he'll finish top five top ten but he can't win he just doesn't have that killer instinct what do you say to that i mean if nothing else mike i am stubborn i seem to come on with oberg on this show over and over again um i think there's a few reasons why i think he can get across the finish line here, maybe more so than some of these other events.”

PGA TOUR lists Tom Kim as the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open winner, so Ludvig Åberg did not win outright. (Tom Kim, winner)

“short putts. So you compare that to Thomas inside the top 30 of all those areas. I do think Thomas is going to have to be better with some of the long iron play than we've gotten over the last year, but I don't think it has to even necessarily stop with Thomas here as a matchup wager. I think that you can bet him to win this tournament. There are numbers out there that are around 45 to one. I am holding onto a ticket. I didn't bring that to the show for one of my outrights, but I'll give it in this section right now for anybody listening.”

PGA TOUR lists Tom Kim as the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open winner, so Justin Thomas did not win outright. (Tom Kim, winner)

“We turn now to your outrights. Blades Brown, as we mentioned, 66-1 to win this thing.”

PGA TOUR lists Chris Gotterup as the 2026 John Deere Classic winner, so Blades Brown did not win outright. (Chris Gotterup, winner)

“Ober being proper at 18. And then Siwoo for whatever this is worth, just continues to like exceed past any expectation. I had him proper around 20, which any of the 35 to one numbers, even still, if you can, I think you can still get numbers in the mid twenties there. Like that's kind of my mentality of taking three shots on three names”

Viktor Hovland won the 2026 Travelers Championship in a playoff over Scottie Scheffler; Siwoo Kim withdrew during round 2 with a back injury and did not win. (Kim WD'd R2 at 8-over through 12 holes; Hovland won in playoff at -21)

“and name check him at the top here, Scotty is 9-2 to win this thing. And the worst odds that you can grab Oberg at are 17-1. So a cutoff number that you had in mind where you think he'd be accurately priced, I'd be interested to hear. And then also, what do you think he needs to avoid if there's any holes in his game that potentially could lead to him you know kind of faltering on Sunday if he's in a position to win it yeah 18 to 1 was what I had proper so anything that you could find in the 20s is still going to play I think you can still find a 22 to 1 out there if”

Viktor Hovland won the 2026 Travelers Championship; Ludvig Åberg did not win. (Hovland won -21 in playoff over Scheffler)

“Spencer's up for Siwoo Kim minus 125 over Justin Rose.”

Justin Rose T11; Si Woo Kim MC — The USGA's final results show Rose finished ahead of Kim. (Rose: +2; Kim: +6)

“But I took Siwoo Kim over Justin Rose.”

At the 2026 U.S. Open, Si Woo Kim missed the cut at 146 (+6, rounds of 77-69) while Justin Rose made the cut and finished T11 at 282 (+2); Kim loses the head-to-head matchup (ESPN leaderboard). (Kim MC (146, +6) vs Rose T11 (282, +2))

“And it's kind of changed for me when I built my model this go around. I kind of think Scotty is going to win this golf tournament. And there has been this Scotty was three to one to win every golf tournament for almost the first three months of the year. And he's underachieved and he's underachieved in a really weird way, because from a statistical perspective, I ran things for the last 24 rounds. And the last time I came on, I talked about how I run my model longer than most people do. I like to have that long-term outlook. I don't want that short-term stuff that's going to inflate or deflate numbers on it. But with Scottie, the stigma around him right now is that he cannot find success. He is struggling. You see him yelling at his caddy. You see him having these outbursts. He's having outbursts on media members. He's having outbursts on pretty much everybody who's getting around him. And I think that what that has done is it has inflated a price now for Scottie. And when I ran the numbers, I wanted to look at the short-term outlook here. And for Scottie over the last 24 rounds, even without any of the victories and even without some of this high-end success that we expect from him, he is still far and away the number one golfer in my model. I ran seven statistical categories from various degrees of range of time. Scottie was number one and substantially number one in every single area. And I kind of go back to that last 24 rounds of him being substantially number one there. While everybody wants to talk about what we've seen from Fitzpatrick and what we've seen from Cameron Young and of those names. And sure, I like Fitzpatrick this week. I think that this is this prototypical sort of a course for him where he can find success. And there's a handful of names that probably make logical sense to go back. But I took the more bullish route on Scotty. And if you shop around, you can find this number six and a half, seven to one in some locations. And And like I said, it's not something that I normally do, but I am playing the chalk here with Scottie.”

Wyndham Clark won the 2026 U.S. Open at 276 (-4); Scottie Scheffler finished T4 at 280 (even par), not a win (ESPN leaderboard). (Scheffler T4 (280, E))

“cherry pick along the way. And I'm going to start with Aaron Rye, 45 to one. Explain this to me like I'm a five-year-old because one of the hottest golfers on tour having won the 2026 PGA Championship Adirondack. I understand there's maybe some personal elements, some market noise in there, but 45 to one for a golfer, by the way, I've seen not one, but two models that project him to be top three in terms of strokes gained on this exact course. So why is he priced in this neighborhood? You would think you'd have to be paying a tax on someone who already has a major under his belt at this point in the season, yet you don't. So kind of walk me through why the market has coalesced around this 40 to 1, 45 to 1 number, and how strongly do you feel about him, not just in the outright, but also taking him in some other markets? I think it's a mistake of a number”

Bud Cauley won the RBC Canadian Open; Aaron Rai did not win.

“Let's go to another one even longer, Eric Cole, 50 to one. He's been someone from an approach perspective that's been incredibly sharp, just playing some of his best golf at the right time. In five of his last six starts, he's finished in the top 14, including four top tens. Yet, once again, not priced. I guess there's a feeling out there in the odds maker community that he's going to revert and regress a little bit to some of his season long statistics from last year. But if you're just looking at the last six weeks, this is arguably a top 10 golfer on tour and you getting him at a price like this which once again has that cascading effect If he 50 to one to win outright all of a sudden those top 10 20 30 markets start to produce some value as well Yeah, and I mean like Ryan Cole are the two biggest movers when it comes to safety in my sheet. So safety for me means they are good matchup plays. It means that they are good top 20 options. And Eric Cole leads this tournament over the last 24 rounds where he has shot par or better. That is consistency at its very core. That's a goal for that if you just take the most baseline blueprint of what you can look at for this field in strokes gain total over the last 24 rounds of me not trying to do my own mad scientist stuff of change it towards the course fit. He's the number one player in strokes gain of recent form. When I do mad scientist out a little bit, he drops a little bit still inside of the top five. But I feel like this has been a consistent output for me. Like there's a lot of names and you will notice this as you listen to the show over the course of time. And when a name starts popping in my model and the numbers are not moving, I'm going to very aggressively keep going back to these options. Like Cole was a name that should have won for us at the Charles Schwab two weeks ago. I think that if you look the week before that, like it's almost been every week that I have found a way to get them onto my outright card.”

Bud Cauley won the RBC Canadian Open; Eric Cole did not win.

“yards out. So there's a lot to like. And then the price, price to move at 70 to one. This is a number that is not going to last. So my question here, and you've talked a lot about Mac over the course of the season, different elements of his game that you like. Where's the cutoff point? Because this thing is probably going to close closer to 55, 60 to one, if my intuition is correct. Because when people start to dig into some of the metrics here, he's a perfect fit in Toronto. Yeah, I'm fine with him down into the low 40s. I don't think he's going to get that low. I think you're going to be able to find a value at any point this week, but you are correct. The number is on the move. The number is not going to last in that territory. If you can get anything in the 60s, I think it's definitely worth punching a ticket there.”

Bud Cauley won the RBC Canadian Open; Mac Meisner did not win.

“All right, your last two golfers. One is a lottery ticket. The other one is a boomer bus golfer and at one point was at the very top of this sport, and that's Brooks Koepka. Let's start with him, 35 to 1. The boom, six top 20s this year. His return to the PGA has been a success in many ways. he's also missed three cuts and a big part of it is it just boils down to can he putt can he be average on thursday friday and saturday with the putter and get himself to be in the mix on sunday because then all of a sudden his overall ball striking his experience playing in the most pressure-packed sundays that the sport has to offer all of a sudden that is an asset but this is somebody who's putted his way out of tournaments as i mentioned three missed cuts so how does your model account for that variability and volatility when it comes to Brooks. And then outside of that, how well do you think he needs to putt to win this thing outright? He's going to have to putt better than what we've seen.”

Bud Cauley won the RBC Canadian Open; Brooks Koepka did not win.

“recently. All right. We saved the lottery ticket 140 to one Zachary Beauchieu. You just mentioned And you also have Aaron Rye who are one and two right now in tee to green in the last 12 rounds in terms of strokes gains Number three is your boy Zach here And I think it's interesting because with someone with the lack of outright wins and the lack of top 10 zero on his card this year, 176 in the world, it can be easy to talk yourself out of it, even at an inflated number like 140 to one. But a big part of it was he started his season slow. really weighed down his season-long statistics. But the surge over the last three tournaments that he's played in has been real. Do you consider him someone that if he gets to Sunday and is in contention, top five at that point, all of a sudden you're hedging off of that number? Or is that something you don't think that far down the line? You're just betting the value where you view it as he should be 80, 90 to 1, 141. I'm going to take it. If I can hit one of these lotto numbers throughout the year, it makes up for a lot of other sins throughout the season. and miscalculations and money management issues? Or is this purely a get me in the mix and then I will find a way to extract value from that second? I'm not a big hedger. So I'm probably the wrong person to ask that question to. I'm somebody that finds value pre and it doesn't mean that I won't find hedge opportunities if they present themselves.”

Bud Cauley won the RBC Canadian Open; Zach Bauchou did not win.

“I still think Rory is the second favorite in this tournament, according to my numbers. Look, we can talk about Rory at Mirfield Village and how it's the only course that he's played 10 plus times that he hasn't won at. And there's all of those things that come into play. And I think honestly, that's the reason why we're getting the drift that we are at the end of the day here. But I'm just price shopping. I'm just grabbing a number where I thought there was value. I probably would not be betting this at any of those sub 12 to 1 numbers if you have enough room. your ticket and on your card and you want to take a shot at like anywhere between 12 to 15 to one, I think that's fine. Outside of that, I mean, it's just a price grab of who I believe is the second best golfer. I think there's a little bit of this overblown narrative of him not winning here that's come into play. And, you know, course history matters to some extent. It does some weeks more than others. And I do think that at this particular course, I would say playing it is more important than actually probably winning at it in the past. And I think if you just look at what Rory's done, four consecutive top 18 finishes since 2021. Not necessarily like pure Rory upside when seventh is the best that you have out of there, but there's a lot of first place ranks for me inside of my model in a tournament where there's Scotty Scheffler. They were a little bit closer than I anticipated them being. I kind of had this approach when this week started that I never single bullet, just like Kyle said, I never single bullet a Scotty Scheffler route. And I was considering doing it. And then I saw where Rory sat in my model and I decided to, it was originally going to be a Rory single bullet. I end up having a second name that we'll talk about in a second,”

J.T. Poston won the 2026 Memorial Tournament in a playoff over Ryan Gerard; Rory McIlroy did not win.

“I took Justin Thomas at 26 to one. I think you can shop around and maybe even find a little bit better than that now.”

Russell Henley won the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge in a playoff over Eric Cole; Justin Thomas did not win.

“I took Alex Smalley at 40 to one.”

Alex Smalley finished T3, one shot out of the playoff; Russell Henley won the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge.

“I took Brian Harman at 66 to one.”

Russell Henley won the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge; Brian Harman did not win.

“Talked about Finau. I took him at 67 to 1.”

Russell Henley won the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge; Tony Finau did not win.

“And then the last one, which I talked about last week, which I'm going to go back to again, Eric Cole, 100 to 1.”

Eric Cole lost a sudden-death playoff to Russell Henley at the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge, finishing 2nd.

“All right, returning to this tournament, let's talk about some placement wagers. You like Ben Marden to make the cut at nearly plus 160. And a few things you're going to notice when you look at his profile this year. only three tournaments on tour this year for Martin. And the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, he played out of his mind. He finished his top four there, 28 under, played a great opening round of 61, and then put it together on Saturday with a 63, demonstrating his ceiling for sure. But the Puerto Rico Open doesn't make the cut. Myrtle Beach Classic doesn't make the cut. And the rest of it has been off of official tour play. So when you look at the data, the sample size, is it very difficult to target what the actual price should be like this one? Or was this an obvious play for you that kind of jumped off the spreadsheet? At the end of the day, I've been trying on this show to bring different markets. For me, it's been these made miscut bets that I've been trying to bring to the table.”

Ben Martin missed the cut (139) at the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson.

“We go from Oleson, who you have to, there's a bit of a leap of faith related to it. And I'm going to transition to another golfer where the recency bias has me feeling pretty good about his form coming into this. And at 100 to 1, if you have my full attention here, I'm going to put this out there for. our producer Gifford, who whenever I butcher a name, he's the first one to message me. Even if it's an overnight drop, he'll message me at two in the morning. This, of course, is the Belgian prodigy, Adrien Dumont de Césart. Hopefully, I nailed that pronunciation. I'm sure I'll get the feedback either way. But when you look at his card this year, I mean, holy moly, the momentum is significant. It goes all the way back to the end of February when he finished tied for 23rd in the Palm Beaches. Then a top 30 at Puerto Rico, a top 30 at the Valspar, 12th at the Texas Children's Open, the Valero Texas Open, tied for 49th, which is really his only dip in the past two to three months. Then Zurich Classic of New Orleans, 17th, and tied for 31st at the Myrtle Beach Classic. It seems to me when you look at his age, the kind of form that he's in right now, and this price point. I wouldn't be shocked if he ends up in a top 30, a top 20. You talk about money management all the time. It's very important when it comes to betting on the PGA Tour. You don't want to put all your eggs in one basket, even as it relates to a single golfer, where you're going to take a portion of your units and put it on an outright, put it on a top 10, kind of ladder it out. Is that how you're thinking of his performance in this one? And why are we talking about him beyond someone like Cole in terms of his overall pricing when it seems to me that his profile, the way that he's playing, it all lends itself to him probably being more fairly priced in the 50s or 60s. Yeah, I think for him, and I ran my model really aggressively this week. I was trying to find incongruities in my sheet compared to what we were getting in the betting market. And the biggest outlier I had from what was proper versus what I had was, I'm also not going to try to pronounce his name. I don't want to be getting those messages, but was Adrian here. We'll just call him that for simplicity on the show. I had him as a top five golfer in this tournament from an overall perspective. I was kind of shocked to see that because if you look at my sheet, It is Scheffler number one, Siwoo Kim number two, Jordan Spieth number three. Those are the three favorites. It's him four. And then it's Michael Thorbjornson five, Brooks Koepka six. I mean, we're talking about five of the six favorites. And then he is included into the mix there. And when I see things like that it always perks my ears of what this actually means And I looked at the profile of why my model liked him as much as it did You know, the driver leaves something to be desired at the end of the day. But the difference between his outlook and an Eric Cole outlook, for example, is he has the prerequisite of distance to actually be able to take advantage of this course. He's 20th in this field in driving distance in my sheet over two years, which I don't know if I have two full years of data for him, but for the sake of the discussion here, it's two years of everybody's data that's being pulled in. And then he's also inside of the top 25 at strokes gained at very easy courses off the tee. And if you compare that number of 25th to just like what his baseline projection would be elsewhere, he's 70th overall. So you get this really big uptick that when driving courses get easier, his results off the tee also start following suit with it. So I agree with everything that you said. I know that's like a very long-winded answer to come back to this exact sentiment of, you can ladder him across the board. This is a name that I am fine betting to win, top five, top 10, top 20. Wherever you want to land with it, whether it's matchups, any of those qualities, I think that's certainly something to consider here.”

Wyndham Clark won; Adrien Dumont de Chassart missed the cut (139).

“I've given this answer even when I hit him a couple weeks ago. When my model likes him, it's usually spot on. I liked him last week, liked him on the win the two weeks before that. Liked him at the Masters where he didn't get himself across the line. Likes him again this week. He's a top three topside play on the board. I thought 16-17 to one number was high from what I thought this was going to be. And reservations, if we want to start getting technical with it, Cameron Young, tons of exposure from books that gave. 90s, 100s. Tons of exposure from people playing him as of the week of. He moving in the wrong direction. Those are questions I want people to at least ask themselves. I'm going to try my data here because it really likes the form. One player in recent projected metrics, number one in some of the weighted scoring categories, but why is he in the wrong direction? If we see sometimes the books know more than you know somebody who runs numbers all the time whether it's self or somebody else so uh just something to and i guess that would be the one true reservation with it but i like cameron young”

Cameron Young finished T26 at the 2026 PGA Championship (won by Aaron Rai), so the outright lost.

“Let's stick with the final play on your [58:28] card to win outright here, and that's Bryson DeChambeau at 25-1.”

Bryson DeChambeau missed the cut at the 2026 PGA Championship (won by Aaron Rai), so the outright lost.

“buy-in and when I saw it at 50 to 1 to open the week that was a very advantageous spot in my opinion I thought that was one of the best values on the board to try to attack I I would argue that there were some Nikolai Hoygaard numbers that made sense. I didn't get there on Hoygaard myself, but yeah, I mean, Minwoo was the very first ticket that I punched. And then I have three other ones that we can talk about throughout the show”

Min Woo Lee did not win the 2026 Truist Championship; Kristoffer Reitan won.

“I took my one shot with Oberg and I ended up grabbing three guys underneath”

Ludvig Aberg did not win the 2026 Truist Championship (Kristoffer Reitan won at -15; Aberg finished -10).

“One quick follow-up, Spencer, in terms of what you just broke down, it makes sense that Jacob Bridgman is the first play on your card, minus 110 over Ben Griffin, because he's not someone that dominates off the tee. He's barely top 90 in terms of strokes gains off the tee this season, But he is someone who's putted very well, top 20 in multiple putting metrics. So in terms of the narrative of the course, it being a bomber's paradise and you thinking that being overblown, it makes sense that that naturally brings you to your first play here of the episode. Yeah, and a lot of it comes into play even more so than that.”

Ben Griffin finished 3rd (-12) and Jacob Bridgman finished T65 (+2) at the Cadillac Championship, so Bridgman lost the matchup.

“All right, let's get into your placement wagers here, gentlemen. Spencer, you're up first. You'd like Corey Conners to finish in the top 20. A little bit surprised, 3-1 attached to this bet in terms of the price point. I'd like to know where your cutoff is because Doral is a second shortstop. Of course. And Connors, I mean, from my understanding, at least looking at his statistical profile, he's built for it. His strokes gained from approach over the last five tournaments is very strong. For the entirety of the season, he's top 25 on tour there as well. Is it as simple as that? And if so, why is this price pretty lucrative at 3-1? I think it just comes down to the form that we've gotten from him entering this tournament of 49th at the Masters, which had prototypically been a tournament for Connors where he had found success.”

Corey Conners finished T30 at the Cadillac Championship, outside the top 20.

“Let's turn now to your outrights to close out the show. Spencer, you have two, the second and third lowest on the board in terms of payout, which is Cam Young and Collin Morikawa, as I brought up earlier.”

Collin Morikawa did not win the 2026 Cadillac Championship; Cameron Young won.

“All right, let's get into the head-to-head. Spencer, you're bringing three to the table. JT minus 120 over Goddorup.”

Justin Thomas finished T77 at +3 (287); Chris Gotterup finished T25 at -8 (276) — Gotterup won the matchup, so Thomas's moneyline lost. (Thomas +3 (T77) vs Gotterup -8 (T25))

“All right, let's close out your head to head card with Hoygaard plus 130 over Spawn. Both are top 15 in strokes gained on approach. So I'm wondering, was it just the price that lured you into Hoygaard here? Yeah, it's a number grab at the end of the day. To me and my model, this is a 50-50 proposition. I have Hoygaard ever so slightly favored over Spahn. If you look at Spahn's profile, he's really good at these short courses. We've seen him find success in the past. But I think it's one of those spots. And Kyle and I talked about it last week a little bit with Hoygaard, and I know it didn't end up coming to fruition with it. I think it was a very unlucky miscut from Hoygaard from a data perspective there. There were two players that were substantially better than what their performance ended up being. Harry Hall is one of them who we kind of saw go, which is funny enough, the two guys that we ended up talking about for the contest over on DraftKings with Hall and Hoygaard of like this big birdie making potential, but also this potential for implosion. And I just think that the market has overcorrected itself ever so slightly because of that. I'm lower on the market on most weeks than what we see with J.J. Spaun. So I'm fading spawn here, but at the end of the day it a 50 price in my model that you getting a plus 130 on So it enough for me to number grab that situation”

Nicolai Højgaard finished T55 at -4 (280); J.J. Spaun finished T25 at -8 (276) — Spaun won the matchup, so Højgaard's moneyline lost. (Højgaard -4 (T55) vs Spaun -8 (T25))

“[23:27] On to placement wagers, gentlemen. [23:29] Spencer, you're up first. [23:30] Nikolai Hoigard at 5-2 to finish top 20. [23:35] I know we've been on him a lot this season, on this show in particular, [23:38] but he's rewarded some of that faith. [23:40] Third at the Phoenix Open, sixth the following week, [23:42] a runner-up at the Texas Children's Houston Open, [23:45] but he misses the cut at Augusta. [23:47] Has that thrown any cold water on him for you, [23:49] or does that only make his odds more attractive moving forward? [23:52] I mean, I think what it does is kind of just the answer I even gave in the matchup market [23:56] is there's an overcorrection that ends up taking place. [23:59] And I'm always going to trust my long-term data when it comes to any particular player. [24:04] You know, I spoke about it at the very beginning. [24:06] Like if you look at his profile inside of my model, I have him as a top 15 overall player [24:12] in this tournament. [24:13] And some of the upside statistics are even better than that. [24:16] So the safety concerns are there ever so slightly. [24:19] But I think when I said, like with Thomas, when you get 72 rounds, I'm, [24:22] or 72 holes or 72 rounds might be, [24:26] we might have a real master's hangover if we end up doing that. [24:30] But with Hoygaard in particular, [24:32] I love the way that the data profile looks for him. [24:35] I think we can try to find spots every single week in the market [24:40] on players that we believe in. [24:42] And sometimes it's going to work where they're going to bounce back. [24:45] And sometimes it's going to be spots like what we saw with [24:48] Mack Meisner for a couple of weeks with Kyle and I [24:51] recommending him over and over again to where you know the missed cuts kept happening And at some point he turns it around and you get on the right side of value But I always looking in my model from a long perspective I rather see how somebody rates out over a 12 to 24 month period rather than these [25:10] condensed returns of one tournament or even one or two tournaments. [25:16] There's highly volatile differences in every single course. [25:20] And for Hoygaard being a name that we know is long off the tee, and I understand that [25:25] there's reasons to believe that potentially the driver ends up hurting him, a lot of the [25:29] statistics in my game at short courses and less than driver and weighted scoring on similar [25:35] properties, there was a lot to like about him. [25:37] So I really liked him.”

Nicolai Hojgaard finished T55 at the 2026 RBC Heritage, outside the top 20.

“bringing forward at the table we got Henley at 24 to 1 Fleetwood 25 to 1 McNeely 45 to 1 and Thomas 65 to 1 Henley is the most straightforward of the four in terms of making a case he's coming off a top three finish at the Masters where he led the entire field in shots gained on approach averaging plus 2.4 strokes per round more than half a stroke better than the second best player in that category. I was a little bit surprised to see this north of 20 to 1. Can you explain that pricing? Yeah, I mean, I think with Henley, we seem to be getting weird returns from him on a week perspective. That number can drop as far as 14 to one some of these weeks. So you get one of these bigger, stronger tournaments and you can see him open in that like 23, 24 to one range. When I ran my model this week, and I know Kyle talked about it a little bit of what some of his marks were for win equity. He had Fleetwood third. I also had Fleetwood third. It's Scotty number one for me, Xander number two, Fleetwood number three. From an overall perspective, which when I graded some of the upside numbers, my number four golfer and Patrick Cantlay does fall ever so slightly. And that's where Henley ends up taking the big push. Like he's one of the big upside movers that I have. And then just to round out the top five, it would technically be Matthew Fitzpatrick, but Henley specifically, the data absolutely loves him. He's number two in my model for weighted scoring. He's number two in in-event correlation, which I talk about every week on the show. Number three for weighted strokes gain total. We've seen this number take a dip in the market over the last 24 hours or so. I do think he's sharpened a lot of different iterations of it. And the one thing you will notice with those returns that I've talked about, and it seems like Kyle and I are kind of similar with some of these answers, Oberg is not in the top five for me. The other name that you will notice is not in the top five for me was Cameron Young, which might be like the outlier against the grain answer there. And when we get later in the show and we talk about some of these prop markets, I do think that answer can make discussions interesting when you agree with the top of the board, but there are a few names that you differ on. So I thought the Henley price was very interesting. I think Fleetwood is a consensus name that is lower than he should be in the market. Came on the show last week, talked a ton about Maverick McNealy, had him top 30 as my best placement wager. talked about him making the cut, which that was a sweat that I did not really want to deal with for two days there. I didn't think he was going to get there than he did. And a lot of those swings and then the matchups I was able to get on McNeely over the weekend against Sergio and names like that really helped to flatline this week for me in a good way to where this was a very up and down tournament and had a couple of spikes at the end there with McNeely, which really helped. And I And I think this is honestly a better course fit for him. And then Thomas just goes back to the boomer bust answer that I talked about at the beginning part of the show. Upside is good Upside is good in the outright market I want to bet on some of those totals And we see him drifting at a lot of books into the 60s even at some of them getting into the 70s on some of those offshore books So those are the four I going to go with There is the concern of Scotty Scheffler being there. Model really likes him this week. I had him at about four to one being proper, which is consensus to what the going rate is. Maybe even a little bit better in some spots if you look around and you can get a five or a six but I decided to oppose him this week I took those four on uh always scary taking on Scotty though it's you never feel good about it”

Russell Henley finished T25 at the 2026 RBC Heritage; Matt Fitzpatrick won.

“bringing forward at the table we got Henley at 24 to 1 Fleetwood 25 to 1 McNeely 45 to 1 and Thomas 65 to 1 Henley is the most straightforward of the four in terms of making a case he's coming off a top three finish at the Masters where he led the entire field in shots gained on approach averaging plus 2.4 strokes per round more than half a stroke better than the second best player in that category. I was a little bit surprised to see this north of 20 to 1. Can you explain that pricing? Yeah, I mean, I think with Henley, we seem to be getting weird returns from him on a week perspective. That number can drop as far as 14 to one some of these weeks. So you get one of these bigger, stronger tournaments and you can see him open in that like 23, 24 to one range. When I ran my model this week, and I know Kyle talked about it a little bit of what some of his marks were for win equity. He had Fleetwood third. I also had Fleetwood third. It's Scotty number one for me, Xander number two, Fleetwood number three. From an overall perspective, which when I graded some of the upside numbers, my number four golfer and Patrick Cantlay does fall ever so slightly. And that's where Henley ends up taking the big push. Like he's one of the big upside movers that I have. And then just to round out the top five, it would technically be Matthew Fitzpatrick, but Henley specifically, the data absolutely loves him. He's number two in my model for weighted scoring. He's number two in in-event correlation, which I talk about every week on the show. Number three for weighted strokes gain total. We've seen this number take a dip in the market over the last 24 hours or so. I do think he's sharpened a lot of different iterations of it. And the one thing you will notice with those returns that I've talked about, and it seems like Kyle and I are kind of similar with some of these answers, Oberg is not in the top five for me. The other name that you will notice is not in the top five for me was Cameron Young, which might be like the outlier against the grain answer there. And when we get later in the show and we talk about some of these prop markets, I do think that answer can make discussions interesting when you agree with the top of the board, but there are a few names that you differ on. So I thought the Henley price was very interesting. I think Fleetwood is a consensus name that is lower than he should be in the market. Came on the show last week, talked a ton about Maverick McNealy, had him top 30 as my best placement wager. talked about him making the cut, which that was a sweat that I did not really want to deal with for two days there. I didn't think he was going to get there than he did. And a lot of those swings and then the matchups I was able to get on McNeely over the weekend against Sergio and names like that really helped to flatline this week for me in a good way to where this was a very up and down tournament and had a couple of spikes at the end there with McNeely, which really helped. And I And I think this is honestly a better course fit for him. And then Thomas just goes back to the boomer bust answer that I talked about at the beginning part of the show. Upside is good Upside is good in the outright market I want to bet on some of those totals And we see him drifting at a lot of books into the 60s even at some of them getting into the 70s on some of those offshore books So those are the four I going to go with There is the concern of Scotty Scheffler being there. Model really likes him this week. I had him at about four to one being proper, which is consensus to what the going rate is. Maybe even a little bit better in some spots if you look around and you can get a five or a six but I decided to oppose him this week I took those four on uh always scary taking on Scotty though it's you never feel good about it”

Tommy Fleetwood finished T52 at the 2026 RBC Heritage; Matt Fitzpatrick won.

“yeah you mentioned McNeely fresh off that 67 on Sunday at Augusta he finishes in the top 10 in both iron play and putting if you were to hang a number yourself obviously you're grabbing the 45 to 1 what do you think's more of his true odds to win this tournament outright so I have a ridiculous return on Maverick McNealy. I had him sub 30. I had him at 29 to one, which I know that is extremely aggressive of a return. But if you look from an overall perspective in my model, or even an upside answer, he's a legitimate top seven play for me in this tournament. And that's one of those names. I know I talked about him last week as an option that I liked, but I don't normally find myself in this super bullish return of Maverick McNealy. So when I saw it last week. I didn't feel comfortable to get there in the outright market. I went there towards placements and made cuts and things, but we got even a further push up the board for this. And I think it's that club down nature. You think of tournaments like Pebble Beach, an event that he's found tons of success at, this tournament where he has a couple top fives. It's over and over again, we're finding him with these higher end perspectives than you would normally expect. And I was surprised a little bit, Michael, to see McNeely even open in the range that he did, not because it's not correct. Like I thought I was going to get him at 60, 70, 80 to one potentially. And it was going to be a very big wager for me. This ended up being not as large of an edge as I was expecting, but it's hard to find edges in the outright market. These markets are very juiced at the end of the day. And if you can get a 15-point discrepancy, specifically from a 45-to-1 number to a fringe 30-to-1 number, that's a big difference. That's something that you're going to want to grab every single time. So we'll see what happens with it. But I really like McNeely this week.”

Maverick McNealy finished T16 at the 2026 RBC Heritage; Matt Fitzpatrick won.

“And then Thomas just goes back to the boomer bust answer that I talked about at the beginning part of the show. Upside is good Upside is good in the outright market I want to bet on some of those totals And we see him drifting at a lot of books into the 60s even at some of them getting into the 70s on some of those offshore books So those are the four I going to go with There is the concern of Scotty Scheffler being there. Model really likes him this week. I had him at about four to one being proper, which is consensus to what the going rate is. Maybe even a little bit better in some spots if you look around and you can get a five or a six but I decided to oppose him this week I took those four on uh always scary taking on Scotty though it's you never feel good about it”

Justin Thomas finished T77 at the 2026 RBC Heritage; Matt Fitzpatrick won.

“All right, let's turn to our DraftKings special segment, a special market that is being offered just at DK. And that is the big guns versus the field. This one's really interesting. You got Scottie, Xander, Young, Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick, Oberg, and Henley qualifying as the big guns. They are minus 105, or you can take the field against them at minus 120 to win outright. I'll go right back to you, Kyle. If you had to choose between these two buckets, which one are you going with? Yeah, I do think, obviously, I didn't bring any of those top-end names to the table here from an outright perspective. But when talking about this market specifically, I do think I would lean towards the big guns here at minus 105. Obviously, a little bit of extra value there with the price, but also looking at some of these names, Scheffler, Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick, those are the top three guys in my model. So I would feel a little bit better if we had a Siwoo Kim in there in that group as well, obviously with an outright bet, but understandably so that he's left out of this group with the name price of these group of guys. So I do think that for this market in particular, I'll take the big guns here at minus 105. Before you weigh in here, Spencer, I'm just going to put this out there in terms of a money management tip. If you can get this group at minus 105 and we get to Sunday and four or five of them are in the top 10, the beauty of it is that because they are the name brands and the public and the casuals want to bet these golfers, It is going to inflate the prices of the rest of the field and those golfers that are joining them in the top 10 to win outright. So it's not necessarily a license to print money, but you're going to be in a really good hedge a little bit with guys who are going off at five, six, seven to one, even though they're in the top 10, because they're up against some of the best golfers in the world. I don't want that to color your choice here, though. Are you going to go with the field or are you going to go with the big guns? I'm going to go opposite of what Kyle ended up saying here. And the one reason for it is I kind of talked about it at the beginning part of the show. If you could let me pick the seven names that they would be, I think that this might be a little bit different in some of the returns of what I've gotten. I have the field winning at about a 54% rate versus 46% for the big guns. At the end of the day, that is not some super profitable answer either way with this. But I think that when you go towards the big guns there and you're laying something at minus 105, that's going to put you more in that, what is that, 51.2 something percent or whatever we exactly land out with there. And if I only have it being 46%, you essentially have a negative 5% win equity mark there, where if you go the other direction with it, you're about spot on of what the price should be. And it might be because I am lower on a few of those names than we've talked about at the beginning And look at the end of the day whether it 55 or you just want to say it 50 we very very close of what it is And I think it an efficient market that DraftKings has done a very good job on But at the end of the day, what you are looking for is, are you higher or lower on the names that are in that range? And I think with me being a little bit lower on a couple of them, I am willing to play the field in that spot and feel like I'm at least getting something that is a little bit closer to proper.”

Matt Fitzpatrick, part of the 'Big Guns' group, won the tournament in a playoff over Scheffler (also Big Guns) — the field did not produce the winner, so this pick lost. (Fitzpatrick (Big Guns) won the RBC Heritage)

“let's now turn to some of the head-to-head markets that you guys have circled let's start with your first one spencer tommy fleetwood minus 155 over justin rose always a little scary to doubt justin rose at augusta national he's played here 20 times seven top tens four top fives finished second place three separate times including last year when he loses in the playoff to rory but he's also missed the cut in three of his last seven appearances so it's been a bit boom or bust for rose fleetwood on the other side has just a laundry list of positives to point to including his fit for this course he top 10 in scoring on par fives we mentioned it early we going to mention it throughout this episode And second on Torin Strokes gained around the green That seems like a winning recipe He also top 10 in terms of his finishes He's been in the top 10 in four of his five. PGA starts this season. So his form, his consistency, his momentum, how this game relates and fits with this course. It's check, check, check, check, check. Minus 155 is the number I have circled here. Obviously, you have to have some price sensitivity. What range do you officially walk away from this? This is a really tough matchup board in general.”

Justin Rose beat Tommy Fleetwood in every sense at the 2026 Masters: Rose opened with a 65 to Fleetwood's 74 in Round 1, and Rose finished T3 while Fleetwood finished T33. (Rose R1 65 vs Fleetwood R1 74; final: Rose T3, Fleetwood T33)

“But Jon Rahm and Scotty Scheffler, whether this is right, wrong or otherwise, ended up grading as exact co-favorites. they graded to the exact decimal point that I use, which is essentially to make it easy. About seven and a half to one was my proper number on each one of them. And I think with the ROM here, when he opened at 12 and we've seen some sharp money come in and we're now starting to probably see a little bit of just overall money coming in on him. I think people are run with this narrative of ROM and, you know, we've seen it in masters of the past. Like I have fallen victim to this before. Like I think I had him in 2024 when he came 45th. So it's, it's, And I understand like you could say the narrative of it is people don't go back to back in this tournament. And maybe that where the little hiccup came from him in that year But the masters of all the majors maybe the US Open which is why we seen him have success there too Like I always prefer these two spots And I do think that with Rom specifically, everybody wants to talk about Scotty's not in form, Rory's not in form. You know, you have Fitzpatrick and Cam Young and all these names that make a lot of sense for why they are finding success. But the high-end name that's like the prototypical one, everybody's searching for who that is. And I think that if you could take the data that Rom has been putting together and he had been doing this on the PGA Tour, I really think that this opens very similarly to what we saw from Rory and Scotty last year to where they were like five to one and seven to one or six to one, whatever we exactly landed when they closed. And I just thought Rom was too high of an opening number there. So, you know, I'm going to grab value where I see it.”

Jon Rahm finished T38 at the 2026 Masters; Rory McIlroy won.

“Xander Schafly, 20 to 1 to win this thing. A little nugget from Nick Kenyon. Over the last six years, only four players have gained more strokes at Augusta National. than Xavier or Xander, I should say. And all four either have a green jacket or a runner-up finish. So he's in the exact statistical neighborhood he wants to be in. This court suits him perfectly, evidenced by his four top 10 finishes in his last five starts at Augusta National. Does he finally punch through here in your estimation? Maybe. If you were to ask me which ticket that I would prefer, if you can find a 20 to one still, you might be able to shop around and still find that.”

Xander Schauffele finished T9 at the 2026 Masters; Rory McIlroy won.

“I don't actually have a ticket on it right now. But is Olsen over Penj? Kind of a lot of the same reasons that come into play. So for me with Olison I do have an outright ticket on him at 62 to one I kind of prefer this though in any of your safety markets of what you can get whether that's, you know, a top 30 on the board.”

Thorbjorn Olesen finished T49 (-4) at the Valero Texas Open; J.J. Spaun won the outright.

“Let's get into some of your favorite outrights to win this tournament this weekend presented by DraftKings. Spencer, we already heard a bit from Kyle about Russell Henley, why he likes him. There are nine players in this field that rank top 40 in all four of these categories. Strokes gained on approach, strokes gained around the green, fairways gained, and bogey avoidance, and Russell is one of them. His price has dipped a little bit. I think at the peak in this market, it was about 20 to 1. I think it's down to about 16 to 1. Where's your cutoff for Henley, and how confident are you that he is going to be in contention come Sunday? so I wrote this up very early in the week I thought proper for him was 15 to 1 so I still think at 16 to 1 you're getting very thin there but there's still a little meat on the bone um I know Kyle talked about where Henley was in his model he is the number one projected player”

Russell Henley missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open; J.J. Spaun won the outright.

“Mack Meisner on this show a thousand times, but Mack Meisner, I will throw my name into the hat here of trying to pronounce a name that I shouldn't be trying to do, Michael. And I don't know if I'll do it as successfully as you did with Thorbjorn, but Adrian Dumont de Chassart, I took him at 105 to one. That was the one long shot ticket that I ended up really punching this week outside of the Olison at 60 to one and then Henley at the top there.”

Adrien Dumont de Chassart finished T49 (-4) at the Valero Texas Open; J.J. Spaun won.

“but I think the best combination of price plus upside is probably Sepp Strzok at plus 305.”

Sepp Straka missed the cut (even par) at the Valero Texas Open and did not win DraftKings Group C.

“To me, my least favorite would be JJ Spahn at plus 380. He would be the 18th player in my model, all the way up to the 6th player in my model at the very best of it. so i mean you're you're kind of close there but i think with what we've seen with straka you can see positive movements in the market from him at any sharp location like he's moving in the right direction and matchups outright i think there's a lot to like about Sepp Straka and then if you want a little bit of a bigger ticket my second name would be keith mitchell at plus 380 well there you have it Sepp Straka to win group c over on DraftKings sports book The crown is yours That do it for today episode Thanks for tuning in here to the action network podcast”

Keith Mitchell missed the cut (-1) at the Valero Texas Open and did not win DraftKings Group C.

“All right, on to the placement wagers that we have circled here on our cards. Spencer, you like Rickie Fowler plus 170 to finish in the top 20. And Ricky has been hot. He's made the cut in six straight starts. He's enjoyed four top 20 finishes. He ranks fifth in strokes gained among the field for this event and third in strokes gained on the green, a critical stat given Memorial Park's past winners have often been defined by elite putting performances. Yeah, I mean, and Kyle came on this show, I believe it was at the Players' Championship. And I think his reason of opposing Rickie Fowler in that tournament, which he landed outside of the top 40, came down to a lot of what he does is reliant on the putter.”

Rickie Fowler missed the cut at the 2026 Houston Open, so no top-20 finish.

“But Minwoo Lee, 15 to one. You think he's just going to run this one back and hopefully it won't be the sweat that it was last year for you, Spencer. Yeah, I mean, I do think for what it's worth, this was a better price when it was 22 to 25 to one before Scottie removed himself from the field. I still think there is value here in this 15 to one number. It's going to be a lot more difficult to construct a card with a lot of the names that I have underneath. If you didn't already start it with Minwoo in the 20 to one range there. I had Minwoo.”

Min Woo Lee finished T3 (-15), not the outright winner; Gary Woodland won.

“I also bet Nikolai Hoigard.”

Nicolai Hojgaard finished solo 2nd (-16) at the Houston Open; Gary Woodland won, so the outright lost.

“I bet his brother Rasmus Hoigard.”

Rasmus Hojgaard did not win the Houston Open; Gary Woodland took the title.

“And I took Jake Knapp.”

Jake Knapp did not win the Houston Open; Gary Woodland won at 21-under.

“back to the action here spencer talk to me about alex smalley a top 20 placement bet here at three to one his odds are obviously favorable for a top 20 finish because he's missed the cut in three of the last four years with a 27th place finish in the middle so what's popping out to you and giving you confidence where at least you know coming into it he has to from a between the ears perspective has to feel that he has a mountain to climb just to make the weekend. Yeah, I talked about this at the beginning part of the show where two of the big categories that I run every single week, it makes up about 40% of my statistical grade will be the weighted strokes gain total, which I'll get into in a second, and then the in-event correlation. So weighted strokes gain total looks at a recalculated outlook of how players have performed inside of the top 10 is usually the threshold amount that I use at this course over the last five years. So it's going to take recalculated dispersion marks of strokes gain off the tee approach around the green putting, and it's going to try to pinpoint the goal for that best fits that threshold return. And so it's trying to find like whether you have found success or not found success on this course. And Kyle and I kind of talked about it at the beginning. This is not necessarily the most correlated tournament from yearly results. So I think I'm willing to throw out some of those results that we've seen from him in the past, but Smalley ended up grading second for me in that weighted strokes gain total output. The, the in-event correlation ends up taking what players are actually doing throughout the week. So how are you gaining those strokes? How are you producing and how likely are you to continue to produce those results in round two? If you've done it in round one, in round three, if you've done it in round two. across the rest of the tournament there. And Smalley also popped inside of the top five of my model in that area You look at the profile of him and what he is bringing to this week Like this was one of the spots And unfortunately it not one of the names that we talked about a lot last week Michael But I had a lot of exposure to him across the board. Had him in a matchup against Danny McCarthy. Had all the in-tournament stuff. Ended up losing a round four matchup against him to give a little bit back at the end. But I thought that 24th place finish from him from a ball striking perspective was very encouraging from what we could get this week. And then, you know, putting does matter. And I agree with Kyle on that. And if you're looking for a hole in the profile, 110th in my model out of 130 players in strokes gained putting over his last 24 rounds. That's the discouraging mark from this. but if you extrapolate out some of the stats on just Bermuda, on comp greens, on hard scoring for putting on this, like he is a top fringe, top 30 putter for me. And I think if we actually end up getting that sort of an output, and putting is always such a volatile statistic that I never really want to take such a bold stance one way or another. Like I would rather find the quality ball strikers and find these profiles that have the ability to spike at any given time. And for me, inside of my model, Smalley is spiking in all of the best ways possible. I would be pushing this bet up the market as much as possible, whether that's a top 10, a top 20, a top five, an outright.”

Alex Smalley finished T46, outside the top 20.

“Like I would rather find the quality ball strikers and find these profiles that have the ability to spike at any given time. And for me, inside of my model, Smalley is spiking in all of the best ways possible. I would be pushing this bet up the market as much as possible, whether that's a top 10, a top 20, a top five, an outright. I have an outright ticket on him also.”

Matt Fitzpatrick won the Valspar; Alex Smalley finished T46, not the outright winner.

“you're going with JJ Spahn at 40 to 1. He looked really good at the Players' Championship.”

Matt Fitzpatrick won the Valspar; JJ Spaun missed the cut (148).

“me. Let's jump into some head to heads. And Spencer, you're up first here taking Adam Scott over Justin Rose. And Adam Scott, you have to go way back in the history books, but he didn't win this one in 2004. And since then, he's had multiple top tens throughout his career. I think when you I think his ball striking profile and how it relates to Pete Dye courses, he's certainly found lots of success at CPC Sawgrass, but also at Harbortown Golf Links and then Whistling Straits as well. Is there anything else in terms of this matchup where perhaps you're fading more Justin Rose than necessarily backing and tailing Adam Scott? I took a really deep. dive into both of these two golfers profiles because if you if you look at them Scott Michael you talked about it if you if you go 20 years ago he was the staple of consistency at this tournament and if you go into the more recent term it's been a little bad across the board of it so I what I wanted to see with Scott's and Rose profiles is how had they been leading into this tournament and this is not something that I always dive this deep into but it was one of those things where my model really liked Adam Scott and it was trying to find reasons to take on Justin Rose. And I just wanted to see what does the Rose profile look like in years that he finds success? And what does the Rose profile looks like in years where he doesn't? And if this bet is to lose,”

Independent verification agrees: Adam Scott finished T56 (+2) while Justin Rose finished T13 (-6) at THE PLAYERS 2026, so Scott lost the head-to-head.

“The kind of mentality I would imagine from a wager like this is you're looking for chaos around him and for him to stay steady and stay in the top 20, top 10. Where are you thinking about his range here? So last year, I laddered McGreevy up. I had him 500 to one to win this tournament, and I laddered him all the way up to a top 40 wager. And I was telling Kyle before we came on air, it was one of the worst Sundays that I can ever recall. He entered that round either within the top five or the top 10. And you talked about it, Michael. He doesn't have a lot of those blow up potential holes. And I don't know what he did. On the back nine, he had already kind of had a shaky round to begin with. He was 51 yards out on his second shot. He airmails the green. There's water behind the green. He airmails the water. He's behind some tree. He tries to chip it out, almost dunks it in the water. Now he's still short of the green. He takes that shot and goes back into the bunker that he was in to begin with. And he makes a mess of this, ends up losing the top five, ends up losing the top 10, ends up chopping the top 20. And I ended up getting there with the top 30 and the top 40. But honestly, I think that you can kind of play this in a lot of different iterations this go around. Like for me, my preferred route would probably be a top 20. There are some upside metrics with him that really like him in my model this week to push it a little bit higher up. Number one player for me at courses that are similar, that feature a lot of water off the tee. So an accurate golfer that's not going to make the mistake there. Same profile comes into play with a lot of the approach stuff inside of the top 25 there.”

Independent verification agrees: Max McGreevy finished T50 (+1) at THE PLAYERS 2026, missing the top 20.

“I bet him outright at 250 to one and I going to take a very cheap shot there I think the top 20 would be my preferred route but I really don have any pushback if anybody wants to play him in any range really between a top five to a top 40”

Independent verification agrees: Cameron Young won THE PLAYERS 2026; Max McGreevy finished T50, so the outright lost.

“Let's talk outrights here. Siwoo Kim has already been mentioned, and Spencer, you like him. When he won in 2017, he was the youngest to ever win this event. The range of outcomes, I feel like if somebody offered me either win or get cut, Siwoo Kim may be at the top of my list because he can putt his way into or out of this tournament really at any three or four hole stretch. Beyond that, what else do you think needs to be mentioned when you talk Kim in this tournament? I mean, I think you kind of said it from an outright wager in particular. Like if you're trying to land the winner, you're not trying to find the guy that's going to come in 11th place. You're trying to shoot for upside. And I think that's why Kyle and I both, when we build our models, like as I've started to talk to him more, I know that this is what he incorporates into his also. Like we like ball strikers. We like guys that can spike with the putter. And unfortunately, Siwu doesn't seem to do much of the spiking. It's just a lot of the negative with it. But I got this at 40 to one when it opened on Monday. And this number has been completely slashed in half. Like there are 20s in the space. I do think the best price is at 24 to one on DraftKings.”

Independent verification agrees: Cameron Young won THE PLAYERS 2026; Si Woo Kim finished T50, so the outright lost.

“Matthew Fitzpatrick jumped out to me, and you like him in the top five at plus 550. Talk me through why you prefer this as opposed to an outright winner. from a money management perspective, I think this is useful to get into your head a little bit for someone who may be a casual better coming out of a tournament like this for the first time. It's a funny question to ask, Michael, because I'm probably going to go in one of the more casual routes on my outright card in a second here. And we'll talk about the Scottie Scheffler dilemma that comes into the mix. There were two players for me in my model that had a much higher expectation this season than in years past when looking at the top of the board. I always like to go back and see what a proper outright number would have been on these players in future and or I should say past year sorry for that but one is Matthew Fitzpatrick the second one is Siwoo Kim I'm also fine considering Kim at plus 650 for the same wager inside the top five there are matchups that we'll get to throughout the show where I like both of them in those two areas but for me it came down to the Fitzpatrick profile”

Independent verification agrees: Matthew Fitzpatrick finished T41 (+1) at Bay Hill, well outside the top 5.

“and it has given me this take where it's 26, 27% of the win equity is going to Scotty. I see about a 4% edge here. I'm going to take a bet on that. I'm going to put my risk there. Like I said, something I've never done in the past before. I just think that the market has moved way too far in the other direction in the sentiment around him. And I think that the upside from what we've seen in the past, like this is a really nice course fit where rollover predictability is one of the five highest on tour. And Kyle said at the beginning, two of the last four years, Scottie Scheffler is the champion of this tournament. So not something that you will probably ever hear me do again on the show but for a one week one off situation I going to take Scottie Scheffler”

Independent verification agrees: Scottie Scheffler finished T24 (-2); Akshay Bhatia won, so the Scheffler-to-win ticket lost.

“I split my exposure up by going Siwoo over Cameron Young.”

Independent verification agrees: Cameron Young finished T3 (-12) versus Si Woo Kim's T13 (-5), so the Kim-over-Young head-to-head lost.

“And I'm going to bet him at 45 to one in the without Scottie market.”

Independent verification agrees: Pierceson Coody missed the cut (+5), so the to-win (without-Scottie market) ticket lost; Akshay Bhatia won the event.

“in those spots. But this is a unique situation. And so I'm going to take the USA to win here at minus 150.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“Scottie Scheffler to be the first man out in singles for the USA. That's a plus 265 number over on DraftKings.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“And I personally decided to do this with Rory McIlroy at eight and a half to one.”

Tommy Fleetwood won the 2025 TOUR Championship, so Rory McIlroy did not win (PGA TOUR). (Fleetwood -18, winner)

“I took Harry Hall minus 125 over Brian [20:38] Harmon.”

Brian Harman finished T13 at -10 while Harry Hall finished T17 at -9, so Hall lost the matchup (PGA TOUR). (Harman T13 -10; Hall T17 -9)

“So I will go with Sung Jae in minus one 10 over Nick Taylor.”

Nick Taylor finished T19 at -8 while Sungjae Im finished T27 at even, so Im lost the matchup (PGA TOUR). (Taylor T19 -8; Im T27 E)

“I'm going to take Cameron Young at 35 to one as [35:15] what is just my one of only two outrights that I have this week.”

Tommy Fleetwood won the 2025 TOUR Championship, so Cameron Young did not win (PGA TOUR). (Fleetwood -18, winner)

“[16:08] bit lower of a bet if I would have gone that route with it. But I decided, as I said, to go in this [16:13] route where I wanted to take two of the names in the 30 to 40 range, two in the 60 to 80, [16:18] and then two long shots. I like the Xander call that Kyle talked about. I considered that myself. [16:25] One of the things that I always run is I run the baseline statistics. So it takes the actual ball [16:30] striking of the tournament. It then merges in some of the baseline short game stats that you [16:35] should expect for them. Xander entered Sunday at the Scottish Open as the number one projected [16:40] scorer on the board. I think we've seen that from Xander quite a bit this year. He has not been able [16:45] to put all the pieces together to actually compete on it. I did consider it, but I ended up going with [16:50] Ludvig Aberg at 30 to one. You know, I'm under this belief. I've said this quite frequently. [16:57] We aren't going to go forever without Oberg being a major champion, winless drought of what this is. [17:03] I know he's only 25, but I think the question becomes what is the best venue for him to capture [17:08] his first Grand Slam title. The natural answer, you're not going to necessarily get pushback from [17:13] me of what his best course is, will be Augusta. We've seen that with back-to-back top 10 finishes [17:17] there. But I thought for all the difficulty that Royal Portruss presented, it had enough birdie”

Scottie Scheffler won the 2025 Open Championship at -17, so Ludvig Aberg did not win (The Open). (Scheffler -17, winner)

“And with that in mind, I took Robert MacIntyre at 40 to one.”

Scottie Scheffler won the 2025 Open Championship at -17, so Robert MacIntyre did not win (The Open). (Scheffler -17, winner)

“I took Russell Henley at 80 to 1.”

Scottie Scheffler won the 2025 Open Championship at -17, so Russell Henley did not win (The Open). (Scheffler -17, winner)

“I took Andrew Novak at 250 to one.”

Scottie Scheffler won the 2025 Open Championship at -17, so Andrew Novak did not win (The Open). (Scheffler -17, winner)

“I took Maverick McNeely.”

Scottie Scheffler won the 2025 Open Championship at -17, so Maverick McNeely did not win (The Open). (Scheffler -17, winner)

“I took Joaquin Neiman at 35 to one on Monday.”

Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.

“but I did take Tommy Fleetwood at 40 to one.”

Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.

“I ended up taking Harris English at 100 to one.”

Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.

“And then I took Matthew McCarty to make the cut at plus 110.”

Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.

“the matchup that I will give out on here is I took Bud Cauley [28:49] minus 120 over Lucas Glover.”

Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.

“[13:42] And then it traverses through the odds board up until 70 to one for me. [13:46] And so I started with the name here at 70 to one. [13:50] You can still find 60s if you shop around. [13:53] I took Robert MacIntyre.”

Rory McIlroy won the 2025 Masters, so Robert MacIntyre did not win (PGA TOUR). (McIlroy, winner)

“I took Russell Henley at 55-1.”

Rory McIlroy won the 2025 Masters, so Russell Henley did not win (PGA TOUR). (McIlroy, winner)

“I ended up starting with Viktor Hovland at 22 to one.”

The official Paris results name Scottie Scheffler men's golf champion, so Hovland lost as stored.

“And then I bet Shubhankar Sharma at 400 to 1.”

The official Paris results name Scottie Scheffler men's golf champion, so Sharma lost as stored.

“I went with [21:00] Morikawa.”

The Open's official results name Schauffele champion, so Morikawa did not win as stored.

“And you look at Tommy Fleetwood at 25 to 1, and Pat has already mentioned this, Terrell [22:43] Hatton at 28 to 1.”

The Open's official results name Schauffele champion, so Fleetwood did not win as stored.

“Hatton at 28 to 1.”

The Open's official results name Schauffele champion, so Hatton did not win as stored.

“I ended up taking Cameron Smith at 50-1.”

The Open's official results name Schauffele champion, so Smith did not win as stored.

“I ended up taking Alex Noren at 135 to one.”

The Open's official results name Schauffele champion, so Noren did not win as stored.

“My outright card, I am going to go to Xander. I think 11-1 is the very cutoff point of where I'm still willing to get to that number.”

USGA records Bryson DeChambeau as the 2024 U.S. Open champion, confirming Schauffele did not win.

“With Pat on Hideki at 55 to one.”

USGA records Bryson DeChambeau as the 2024 U.S. Open champion, confirming Matsuyama did not win outright.

“The very first outright bet that I placed was on Xander Shoffley at 22 to one.”

The Masters official final results list Scottie Scheffler as champion, confirming Schauffele did not win.

“That's Matthew Fitzpatrick plus 130 for a top 20.”

The Masters official final results list Matt Fitzpatrick outside the top twenty, confirming the stored lost grade.

“Well, let's talk a little bit more about these safety markets and we'll transition here into Austin Eckro to make the cut at minus 110.”

The Masters official final results list Austin Eckroat as cut, confirming the make-cut pick lost.

“but I'm going to go with Harris English here for a top 20 at plus 345.”

The Masters official final results list Harris English outside the top twenty, confirming the stored lost grade.

“I took Tyrrell Hatton at 33 to one last week. [10:41] I did that when I filmed the gimme with Jason Sobel.”

Official Open Championship leaderboard confirm that Tyrrell Hatton to win settled lost as recorded.

“I took Max Homa at 60 to one. This was a [11:15] golfer that the three of us talked about during the US Open when I also grabbed him at 30 to one.”

Official Open Championship leaderboard confirm that Max Homa to win settled lost as recorded.

“And then I did wrap up my card with Jason Day at 125 to one.”

Official Open Championship leaderboard confirm that Jason Day to win settled lost as recorded.

“And then I will double [22:18] down on the Tony Finau call with Nick. [22:21] I think 41st or better is a very intriguing bet that you can find out there”

Official Open Championship leaderboard confirm that Tony Finau top 41 (41st or better) settled lost as recorded.

“And I thought the best answer for this was I jumped on Tyrrell Hatton at 40 to 1”

Wyndham Clark won the 2023 U.S. Open, so Tyrrell Hatton did not win as stored (USGA).

“I'm going to say Viktor Hovland anywhere between that 17 to 20 to one range right now.”

Wyndham Clark won the 2023 U.S. Open, so Viktor Hovland did not win as stored (USGA).

“And then I'm going to double down on the point that Nick was talking about earlier with Mito [23:16] Pereira. [23:17] Like, he has an outright ticket on him. [23:18] I think you can consider him on FanDuel as a top 20 bet at plus 280.”

Mito Pereira missed the cut at the 2023 U.S. Open, so top 20 lost as stored (USGA leaderboard).

“[27:07] Maybe I undervalue Shane Lowry. [27:08] I just think he's a guy. [27:09] But if I get an outright ticket on Rory, I'm kind of exposed there. [27:13] if rory just completely craps a bed i think seamus power has a good chance of being the top irishman [27:17] this week it's seven to one is there any value on that crazy prop just because it's a major we [27:22] got to get a little off the board here i don know i mean i i think rory gonna come top 10 and that a very challenging we stop stop there then I don know is really a no which is fine I do want to say one thing about Seamus though [27:36] I also have a top 40 bet on him at plus 220 over at FanDuel.”

Seamus Power missed the cut at the 2023 U.S. Open, so top 40 lost as stored (USGA leaderboard).

“So I'll start with Patrick Cantlay. I've seen this [10:17] as high as 28 to one. I was fortunate to be able to grab a 33 to one months ago when I bet him for [10:23] all four majors.”

The Open's official final leaderboard names Cameron Smith champion, confirming Patrick Cantlay to win settled lost as recorded.

“I bet Dustin Johnson at 40 to one. It sounds outlandish to say right now, [10:53] but I do believe Dustin is going to win this tournament.”

The Open's official final leaderboard names Cameron Smith champion, confirming Dustin Johnson to win settled lost as recorded.

“[11:21] I took Adam Scott at a hundred to one.”

The Open's official final leaderboard names Cameron Smith champion, confirming Adam Scott to win settled lost as recorded.

“[11:40] I took Webb Simpson at 160 to one.”

The Open's official final leaderboard names Cameron Smith champion, confirming Webb Simpson to win settled lost as recorded.

“I took Thomas Pieters 130 to one.”

The Open's official final leaderboard names Cameron Smith champion, confirming Thomas Pieters to win settled lost as recorded.

“And then I did a number grab with Sung Jae Im at 80 to one.”

The Open's official final leaderboard names Cameron Smith champion, confirming Sungjae Im to win settled lost as recorded.

“And then I ended with Russell Henley, top 40 plus 240 on FanDuel, plus 150 on DraftKings.”

The PGA TOUR Open leaderboard confirms Russell Henley did not finish in the top forty, as recorded.

“I grabbed Harold Varner III top 40 plus 115 FanDuel minus 135 DraftKings.”

Official tournament leaderboard confirms the recorded settlement.

“Brian Harman, top 40 plus 165 fan duel. Consider this more of a number grab than anything else.”

Official tournament leaderboard confirms the recorded settlement.

“the one I will give is Siwoo Kim to be the top South Korean golfer at plus 330”

Official tournament leaderboard confirms the recorded settlement.

“The two I'll give on this show, which are two plays that I have mentioned multiple times, will be, I will start with Harold Varner III at 100 to 1.”

Official tournament leaderboard confirms the recorded settlement.

“And then the second choice is Aaron Wise I have each of them as top 13 targets in this field when I run the event for upside over a shorter term sample size than I typically use And while it hard to imagine either winning a major at this points of their career we seen them recently in fields that are not much different than this at sub 50 to one.”

Official tournament leaderboard confirms the recorded settlement.

“And that would be Cameron Young to be the top debutant at 8-1 on BetMGM.”

Official Masters final results show Cameron Young missed the cut and Min Woo Lee was the best-placed debutant.

“[13:27] I think Spencer said this, just the fatigue of the course and making your way around Augusta. [13:32] That is certainly something that has to be considered when you weigh your choices. All [13:38] right. So let's get to the, let's get to the good stuff. Some, some outright winners or your, [13:43] your favorite outright winner, Spencer, or, you know, if you've got a handful, please give it to [13:48] I kind of already alluded to this, that this is Rory McIlroy week for me. So Rory McIlroy 20 to one, [13:54] I wasn't planning to do this when the week started, but something changed for me on Sunday when I made [13:59] a few minor alterations to my model. As I said, I think these conditions will be softer because of”

Official Masters final results identify Scottie Scheffler as champion, not McIlroy.