Brandon Anderson

“in three games so I want Jason escalator and it's going to be a kind of surprise ending escalator except not much of a surprise if you've been following along the way. Start with over six and a half receptions. I think that line is a full reception too low. He's gone over six and a half, 13 of 19 games, but that one's misleading. We played this last round and hit this, I think, by halftime. Four of those six unders were in games that Seattle won by 21 points or more. Now, maybe Seattle does that in this game, but if you expect it to be at all competitive, that means take those big blowout games out. Now he has seven catches and more in 11 of the other 13 games. That makes Oversick's math look really good, even at minus 139.”

NE 13, SEA 29 — Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 4 receptions vs over 6.5; busts. (Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 4 receptions)

“And we'll play the escalator at eight catches. Plus 130, he's had eight catches and more, 10 of those 13 non-blowout games.”

NE 13, SEA 29 — Jaxon Smith-Njigba had four receptions and did not reach the 8-or-more receptions threshold. (Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 4 receptions)

“JSN 100 receiving yards and MVP. That's the top of the escalator here it's plus 850”

Jaxon Smith-Njigba did not win MVP and had only 27 receiving yards (under 100).

“let's go over 39 and a half yards plus 105 henry has had 39 yards or more 11 of 20 games”

NE 13, SEA 29 — Hunter Henry: 31 receiving_yards vs over 39.5; busts. (Hunter Henry: 31 receiving_yards)

“we'll take the henry escalator 50 yards plus 155”

NE 13, SEA 29 — Hunter Henry had 31 receiving yards and did not reach the 50-or-more receiving-yards threshold. (Hunter Henry: 31 receiving yards)

“catches that's the line over two and a half it's minus 120 he's had three catches seven of the last”

NE 13, SEA 29 — Kenneth Walker III: 2 receptions vs over 2.5; busts. (Kenneth Walker III: 2 receptions)

“So the Walker escalator 30 receiving yards at plus 160”

NE 13, SEA 29 — Kenneth Walker III had 26 receiving yards and did not reach the 30-or-more receiving-yards threshold. (Kenneth Walker III: 26 receiving yards)

“But we're going back again to Rashid Shahid rushing over two and a half rushing yards.”

NE 13, SEA 29 — Rashid Shaheed: 0 rushing_yards vs over 2.5; busts. (Rashid Shaheed: 0 rushing_yards)

“you can bet Shahid for the longest run of the game at 30-1.”

Rashid Shaheed's only carry was -5 yards; Kenneth Walker had the longest runs.

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba 100+ receiving yards lost
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba Super Bowl MVP lost

“All right. And next you're going JSN MVP, but not just MVP. You're going to have 100 plus receiving yards so you're taking that from around 550 to 850 yeah i'm annoyed so many others are taking jsn i feel like i'm kind of losing the edge so hopefully the 100 yard boost gets me a little bit of juice back it's 200 on this one”

Parlay lost: Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 27 receiving yards and did not win Super Bowl MVP.

• New England defensive or special teams touchdown lost
• New England Patriots moneyline closed +195 · CLV +4¢ lost

“you have seattle defensive or special team score plus money line plus 833 and then pats defensive or special team score plus money line plus 2703 i do think this is a game where there's a higher than normal chance that you can see a defensive score by either team and and by the way just to cap off your MVP with the Darnold and the numbers and like Darnold isn't the household name right that like you know Brady in the home so like that I think contributes to you to remember this is like a people voting award uh but Seattle defensive specialty score on Moneyline and then Pat's defensive specialty score on Moneyline thoughts there yeah you can bring me back on the show next year I'm gonna make this exact same bet with the whatever the two teams are there won't be the Vikings y'all are sad about your team not being the Super Bowl it'd be nice if the Vikings ever made a Super Bowl. So at least enjoy the ones you get. Defensive teams have had 23 touchdowns in the Super Bowl It more than one in every three Super Bowls Both Chiefs games had a touchdown by the defense 14 defensive scores in the last 24 That over a half a defensive touchdown expected per game in that stretch like you said Seattle aggressive defense but second most giveaways on offense so I'm obviously we're going to get to my max payout when you get there I can't win both of these right like I can only win one or the other I don't mind I haven't heard a lot of Patriots action on here if New England wins and it's football it's a weird oblong ball Why wouldn't they win? Because we got the Darnold turnover, some unlucky bounce, some goofy play defense back the other way. Seven or three points is a pretty good reason to win a game that you're not expected to. And that's why I have the combo here. 23 defensive touchdowns in the Super Bowl. 20 of them came from the winning team. So you want to bet the winning team to get the defensive touchdown. Make sure you get special teams at your book as well. I'm playing both of them. In this contest, since I like Seattle more, I'll go 200 on Seattle, 100 on New England.”

Parlay lost: New England had no defensive or special-teams touchdown and lost the game 29-13.

“A probably chalk would be Kenneth Walker to get the longest rush. his longest rush is usually like 15 to 20 we might win this with like a 18 20 yard rush I think Shahid could get that get a long one did you know that Seattle's leading rusher in their last Super Bowl win Percy Harvin with 45 yards including a 30 yard run in that game so if we're going to run it back on Seattle let's run it back with Shahid as Harvin and yeah I think this one this could hit in a win a loss in a lot of scenarios so at 30 to one I think that's just way too long”

Rashid Shaheed's only carry for Seattle lost 5 yards, so he did not record the game's longest rush.

• New England Patriots defense or special teams touchdown lost
• New England Patriots ML closed +195 · CLV +4¢ lost

“Patriots defense special team touchdown with their money line plus 2700. You have both together.”

Parlay lost: New England had no defensive or special-teams touchdown and lost the game 29-13.

“defenders can win MVP. We've had 10 defensive MVPs, more defense than running back, more defense than receiver. It's about one every seven in the Super Bowl. Defensive MVP you can get just at 15 to one. Every defender, I get half the guys on the field at 15 to one. What can't you like about that? that's six percent implied it's like two and a half times what the history implies there so i like defensive mvp”

Super Bowl LX MVP was Kenneth Walker III (RB, Seahawks), an offensive player — defensive MVP prop loses. (Walker: 135 rushing yards, 26 receiving yards (161 total); Seahawks won 29-13.)

“for the deadline and we're going to run it back rashid shaheed rushing yards over two and a half”

NE 13, SEA 29 — Rashid Shaheed: 0 rushing_yards vs over 2.5; busts. (Rashid Shaheed: 0 rushing_yards)

“So I like, Chad, I like the receptions bet as my base here. Over two and a half receptions.”

NE 13, SEA 29 — Kenneth Walker III: 2 receptions vs over 2.5; busts. (Kenneth Walker III: 2 receptions)

“And I'm going to play my escalator on yardage here, 30 yards plus 160.”

NE 13, SEA 29 — Kenneth Walker III had 26 receiving yards and did not reach the 30-or-more receiving-yards threshold. (Kenneth Walker III: 26 receiving yards)

“So I like over 39 and a half Hunter Henry yards. It's plus 105 at one book.”

NE 13, SEA 29 — Hunter Henry: 31 receiving_yards vs over 39.5; busts. (Hunter Henry: 31 receiving_yards)

“So over 39 and a half, but 50 yards plus 155.”

NE 13, SEA 29 — Hunter Henry had 31 receiving yards and did not reach the 50-or-more receiving-yards threshold. (Hunter Henry: 31 receiving yards)

“regardless of all the tight end snaps, Colby Parkinson. Parkinson has been the guy he caught the touchdown winner against Carolina. He almost got another one against Chicago. Stafford tried him on almost the same play late in that game. He's been the tight end touchdown guy. He now has nine touchdowns the last 11 games for the Rams, including one against Seattle. Kind of he's become Devontae Adams for them in some ways, the number of touchdowns he's putting up. Seattle's tight ends. Seattle's allowed top 10 most tight end points fantasy-wise and top five most receptions on the season. Parkinson, to me, has established himself as a clear touchdown threat game after game. We're getting plus 425 on the touchdown odds, and we should get some points in this game. The Rams are going to find the end zone a little bit. That's just way too long to me, even though he's not my favorite tight end to bet in this one. But give me Parkinson plus 425 to start out here yeah i'm a big colby fan especially when you look inside the numbers two plus”

Colby Parkinson did not score a touchdown in the Rams' 31-27 NFC Championship loss to the Seahawks.

“So we're playing the 10 and a half over longest reception and we got to do the receiving escalator.”

SEA 31, LAR 27 — Terrance Ferguson had no receptions, so his longest reception was 0 yards and the over 10.5 lost. (Terrance Ferguson: 0 receptions; longest reception 0 yards)

“we're running back our longest catch and i had to play the touchdown here as well for ferguson plus 750 i don't think of him as a huge scoring touchdown threat kind of like parkinson is more so but he scored two of the last three games now one of those was against seattle”

Terrance Ferguson did not score a touchdown in the Rams' 31-27 NFC Championship loss to the Seahawks.

“All right. I think the most fun you can bet this weekend is on Rashid Shahid. We saw in the last game, opening play of the game, Rashid Shahid takes the kickoff all the way for a touchdown. Here's my Rashid Shahid bet. Over half of a rushing yard. I just need one yard from Rashid Shahid.”

SEA 31, LAR 27 — Rashid Shaheed: 0 rushing_yards vs over 0.5; busts. (Rashid Shaheed: 0 rushing_yards)

“I don think I going to get that number for long So minus three Rams Patriots And then the one I like a little better we did Super Bowl MVPs at the start of the playoffs I still think you bet this right now JSN and Puka Nakua, I'm going to bet both of them. Smith and Jigpa at 15-1 and Puka Nakua at 17-1.”

Jaxon Smith-Njigba did not win Super Bowl LX MVP; Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III was named MVP.

“I don think I going to get that number for long So minus three Rams Patriots And then the one I like a little better we did Super Bowl MVPs at the start of the playoffs I still think you bet this right now JSN and Puka Nakua, I'm going to bet both of them. Smith and Jigpa at 15-1 and Puka Nakua at 17-1.”

Puka Nacua's Rams lost the NFC Championship and missed Super Bowl LX; Kenneth Walker III won SB MVP.

“Bills money line, minus 102, or best number you can find.”

DEN 33, BUF 30 — Buffalo Bills lost; moneyline busts.

“Bills minus 5.5, plus 225.”

DEN 33, BUF 30 — Buffalo Bills margin -3 vs line -5.5; busts.

• 49ers +7.5 closed +6.5 · CLV +1 lost
• Seahawks ML closed -300 · CLV -40¢ won

“So a little bet here, Niners to cover. Hopefully seven and a half you can get it, seven if you need it. I would not play it underneath the seven. Niners to cover plus Seattle to win. So some books you can just do Seattle to win by one to seven points. I think Seattle gets the win, but the Niners keep it close. And look, you mentioned this. If you want to throw the under in there, that makes a lot of sense as well. Mine doesn't have the under in there. It's basically a two to one bet. So that would be the side here.”

Parlay busts: 49ers +7.5 +7.5 — lost; Seahawks ML — won.

“So I'm going to nibble the Houston money line, plus 150.”

NE 28, HOU 16 — Houston Texans lost; moneyline busts.

• Drake Maye under 1.5 passing TDs lost
• Drake Maye over 25 rushing yards lost

“Under one and a half passing touchdowns. So you get one or zero. That's [48:22] it, plus 25 rushing yards, plus 118.”

Both Drake Maye same-game-parlay legs lost: he threw 3 passing touchdowns, failing under 1.5, and did not clear the 25-yard rushing threshold.

“The numbers suggest it might be Ramondre Stevenson, even though it doesn't make a lot of sense. Last six games, three catches for 38 yards a game for him. He's had three more catches and four of The sixth, he's at at least 22 yards receiving in all of them. And a lot of it's been yak. 61% of his season yak has come just in these six games. And if you're wondering about Trevion, he's only down about eight receiving snaps a game the last five weeks. Remondre's at 22. So I think Stevenson has kind of quietly become the receiving back here. And the line for him is just 19 and a half receiving yards. Again, he's gone over that six straight games. So we'll start with there.”

NE 28, HOU 16 — Rhamondre Stevenson: 11 receiving_yards vs over 19.5; busts. (Rhamondre Stevenson: 11 receiving_yards)

“I'm going to play the Rams minus three and a half. I don't mind four if”

CHI 17, LAR 20 — Los Angeles Rams margin +3 vs line -3.5; busts.

“I think I prefer full game. I'm going to play the Rams minus three and a half. I don't mind four if you need it. They've covered that line in all but one win until last week. So they're usually not winning super close games. If you like it, I like the team total here, 26 and a half. I think it kind of works as a proxy for a Rams money line. So it might even be better than the spread. Forget the key number there over 26 the Rams have hit that 12 of 18 games this season and they had a 26 in there so 13 of 18 counting that one and when they score 27 or more they 10 and 2 they only 3 and 3 without that so I think 27 in a game against a good offense with your defense faltering you're probably going to need to get to some total like that one Chicago's allowed 27 or more eight times already they've allowed that many all but one of their loss so it's like a proxy for a Bears loss and a proxy for a Rams win but you're getting a money line price at a discount here effectively. So I like the over team total 26 and a half. And then I'll do a little escalator on there because I'm going to avoid the spread. I don't”

CHI 17, LAR 20 — Rams scored 20 (CHI 17, LAR 20); team total over 26.5 busts.

“that one Chicago's allowed 27 or more eight times already they've allowed that many all but one of their loss so it's like a proxy for a Bears loss and a proxy for a Rams win but you're getting a money line price at a discount here effectively. So I like the over team total 26 and a half. And then I'll do a little escalator on there because I'm going to avoid the spread. I don't want to mess with the back door. I don't want to get Chicago pushing in late. We've seen that too many times. Over 33 and a half plus 330. The Rams have scored 33 or more 10 times, nine of their 13 wins. So I like that number as a possibility. And then the Rams have scored 41 three times.”

CHI 17, LAR 20 — Rams scored 20 (CHI 17, LAR 20); team total under 33.5, busts.

“Give me the under 46 and a half at DraftKings, Seahawks and Niners.”

Seahawks routed 49ers 41-6 in the Divisional round (47 combined points), over the 46.5 total. (Final: SEA 41, SF 6)

“give me the under 46 and a half at draft kings seahawks and niners”

49ers routed Seahawks 41-6, combined 47 points, over 46.5. (49ers 41, Seahawks 6 (total 47))

“So took Rams minus 10 on the hot read, 10.5 if you need it now, [30:08] playing the alts.”

CAR 31, LAR 34 — Los Angeles Rams margin +3 vs line -10; busts.

“Rams minus 12.5 plus 118.”

CAR 31, LAR 34 — Los Angeles Rams margin +3 vs line -12.5; busts.

“Rams minus 23.5 plus 420.”

CAR 31, LAR 34 — Los Angeles Rams margin +3 vs line -23.5; busts.

“best bet Under 22 and a half I think this game starts out quiet and gets interesting late”

Packers led 21-3 at halftime of the Bears game (24 combined points), over the 22.5 first-half total. (1H: GB 21, CHI 3)

“First quarter under nine and a half points”

Packers led Bears 7-3 after the first quarter (10 combined points), over the 9.5 first-quarter total. (Q1: GB 7, CHI 3)

“I think Liam Cohen and this coaching staff, Campanelli on defense too, I think they have elevated and given them a lot of advantages in the game that I think they're going to have here. So I going to play just those advantages My best bet here is Jacksonville but just the first half Jacksonville first half plus a half point It minus 115 I prefer that to the money line. Money line pushes a tie. We win the bet with a tie here, so try to get that if you can.”

JAX 7, BUF 10 (halftime) — Jacksonville Jaguars 1st-half margin -3 vs line +0.5; busts.

“Jacksonville to win the AFC 6-1. That is a bet I'm putting in.”

The Patriots won the AFC, not the Jaguars (who lost in the Wild Card round to the Bills).

“Rams over Jaguars in the Super Bowl 40-1. That's the bet on this [1:04:16] game.”

The Super Bowl LX matchup was Seahawks vs. Patriots, not Rams vs. Jaguars.

“Josh Allen is plus 950 to lead the game in rushing yards. I always look at Allen [1:04:33] rushing yards in playoff matchups.”

Josh Allen rushed for 33 yards, leading Buffalo, but Jaguars' Travis Etienne Jr. led the entire game with 67 rushing yards. (Allen 33 yds (11 car); Etienne 67 yds (10 car))

• Under 45.5 closed +44.5 · CLV +1 won
• Eagles ML closed -265 · CLV -10¢ lost

“Under 45 and a half plus the [1:14:03] Eagles money line. Because we can tell I lean Eagles here. I don't want the four and a half, [1:14:07] but give me the money line with the under, plus 155.”

Parlay busts: Under 45.5 +45.5 — won; Eagles ML — lost.

“It's time for the mine shaft, the opposite of an escalator. Here's the totals in those eight Eagles games since the bye week. This is the whole game total, 47, 45, 39, 31, 31, 25, 25, and 17. These games are dreadful. Sunday afternoon is going to be a dreadful watch. five of the eight games at 31 or less three of them at 25 or less so mine shaft season under 33 and a half plus 460 under 27 and a half plus 870 we saw a dreadful matchup the last time these teams played in the playoffs so look san fran literally ran out of quarterbacks let's hope we don't have”

PHI 19, SF 23 — Combined 42; under 33.5 busts.

“under 27 and a half plus 870”

PHI 19, SF 23 — Combined 42; under 27.5 busts.

• Under 46.5 closed +45.5 · CLV +1 won
• Chargers +3.5 closed +3.5 · CLV 0 lost

“Give me the under 46.5. [1:21:25] Give me the Chargers plus 3.5 together, plus 242.”

Parlay busts: Under 46.5 +46.5 — won; Chargers +3.5 +3.5 — lost.

“You can check the article. The whole thing here is look at the player odds versus the Super Bowl odds and what percentage of a Super Bowl win do they have to win MVP in to get it? That's the angle. And my first bet coming out swinging was Bo Nix plus 1,300 because he only has to win in about half of Denver Super Bowl victories and they're the one seed.”

Kenneth Walker III won Super Bowl LX MVP; Bo Nix's Broncos did not reach the Super Bowl.

“Do you want to very quickly give out your Super Bowl MVP bets? Because you found those today. There's an article up on ActionNetwork.com and the Action Network app. You can read all Brandon's analysis on it, but do you want to fly through that real quickly? Yeah, no cases here. I'm just going to give you the four bets. You can check the article. The whole thing here is look at the player odds versus the Super Bowl odds and what percentage of a Super Bowl win do they have to win MVP in to get it? That's the angle. And my first bet coming out swinging was Bo Nix plus 1,300 because he only has to win in about half of Denver Super Bowl victories and they're the one seed. The two I like best, Jackson Smith and Jigba, 28-1, Puka Nakua, 35-1. Both would have to win around 15% of the time in their team Super Bowl chances. I want both of those.”

Kenneth Walker III won Super Bowl LX MVP, not Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

“Do you want to very quickly give out your Super Bowl MVP bets? Because you found those today. There's an article up on ActionNetwork.com and the Action Network app. You can read all Brandon's analysis on it, but do you want to fly through that real quickly? Yeah, no cases here. I'm just going to give you the four bets. You can check the article. The whole thing here is look at the player odds versus the Super Bowl odds and what percentage of a Super Bowl win do they have to win MVP in to get it? That's the angle. And my first bet coming out swinging was Bo Nix plus 1,300 because he only has to win in about half of Denver Super Bowl victories and they're the one seed. The two I like best, Jackson Smith and Jigba, 28-1, Puka Nakua, 35-1. Both would have to win around 15% of the time in their team Super Bowl chances. I want both of those.”

Kenneth Walker III won Super Bowl LX MVP; Puka Nacua's Rams did not reach the Super Bowl.

“Do you want to very quickly give out your Super Bowl MVP bets? Because you found those today. There's an article up on ActionNetwork.com and the Action Network app. You can read all Brandon's analysis on it, but do you want to fly through that real quickly? Yeah, no cases here. I'm just going to give you the four bets. You can check the article. The whole thing here is look at the player odds versus the Super Bowl odds and what percentage of a Super Bowl win do they have to win MVP in to get it? That's the angle. And my first bet coming out swinging was Bo Nix plus 1,300 because he only has to win in about half of Denver Super Bowl victories and they're the one seed. The two I like best, Jackson Smith and Jigba, 28-1, Puka Nakua, 35-1. Both would have to win around 15% of the time in their team Super Bowl chances. I want both of those. That's my big NFC pick. And then Saquon Barkley, 66-1, a matchup thing as well.”

Kenneth Walker III won Super Bowl LX MVP; Saquon Barkley's Eagles lost in the Wild Card round.

“Do you want to very quickly give out your Super Bowl MVP bets? Because you found those today. There's an article up on ActionNetwork.com and the Action Network app. You can read all Brandon's analysis on it, but do you want to fly through that real quickly? Yeah, no cases here. I'm just going to give you the four bets. You can check the article. The whole thing here is look at the player odds versus the Super Bowl odds and what percentage of a Super Bowl win do they have to win MVP in to get it? That's the angle. And my first bet coming out swinging was Bo Nix plus 1,300 because he only has to win in about half of Denver Super Bowl victories and they're the one seed. The two I like best, Jackson Smith and Jigba, 28-1, Puka Nakua, 35-1. Both would have to win around 15% of the time in their team Super Bowl chances. I want both of those. That's my big NFC pick. And then Saquon Barkley, 66-1, a matchup thing as well. James Cook 100 to 1 less so matchup for him”

Kenneth Walker III won Super Bowl LX MVP; James Cook's Bills did not reach the Super Bowl.

“I'm taking the Rams. Minus 10. I understand how historic this number is, but give me the 10 points at DraftKings and the Rams.”

CAR 31, LAR 34 — Los Angeles Rams margin +3 vs line -10; busts.

“Give me a Mike Evans. Give me a touchdown. It's plus 170 to Mike Evans.”

Mike Evans had 2 receptions for 34 yards and no TD in the Buccaneers' 16-14 win over the Panthers.

“if you give a mouse a cookie so play it out so i kind of like tampa here i like the saints in atlanta we're going to get to that one in a little bit so if tampa does win and the saints win now the bucks are in the playoffs okay now what the bucks are in the playoffs as the four seed a home game but they're playing seattle or the rams and i think they get demolished in that game they are the way worst team in that matchup. It's the most lopsided matchup in the playoffs. So here's the angle on the game as a future. It's Bucs to lose in the wildcard round. At DraftKings, that's under stage of elimination, plus 500. It's 5-1 odds.”

Buccaneers missed the playoffs entirely, so they were not eliminated in the Wild Card round.

“I still think McCaffrey is live for Offensive Player of the Year. This was Jonathan Taylor all season. It's not anymore. Now JSN's the favorite. Minus 300. But he's really fallen off. Last five games under 80 yards a game. Only 100-yard game. He was on a 2,000-yard pace. This five games, he's down to about a 1,350-yard pace. So that about a third less on production on the season And here he is head to head If the Niners win and if McCaffrey outplays JSN here a head to head spot to take away the offensive player of the year And I think McCaffrey is a really strong bet for that. Plus 380.”

Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba won 2025 AP Offensive Player of the Year, not Christian McCaffrey.

“I think the play here is Niners, NFC and Super Bowl tickets, plus 440 to win the NFC, plus 950 to win the Super Bowl.”

Seahawks won the NFC; the 49ers were eliminated 41-6 by Seattle in the Divisional round.

“plus 440 to win the NFC, plus 950 to win the Super Bowl.”

Seahawks won Super Bowl LX 29-13 over the Patriots; the 49ers lost in the Divisional round.

“I don't think this is what happens, but I like the line. Whoever wins Baltimore-Pittsburgh has a real chance to upset Houston, presumably in the next round. It's probably like a total of 37, low-scoring, ugly close. You get the lucky kick late and get over the line. Give me Baltimore and Pittsburgh. I'll play both of them to lose, not in the wildcard round, in the divisional round. Baltimore plus 460, Pittsburgh plus 750.”

Baltimore missed the playoffs and never reached the Divisional Round, so the elimination-in-Divisional-Round future lost.

“I don't think this is what happens, but I like the line. Whoever wins Baltimore-Pittsburgh has a real chance to upset Houston, presumably in the next round. It's probably like a total of 37, low-scoring, ugly close. You get the lucky kick late and get over the line. Give me Baltimore and Pittsburgh. I'll play both of them to lose, not in the wildcard round, in the divisional round. Baltimore plus 460, Pittsburgh plus 750.”

Pittsburgh lost in the Wild Card Round and never reached the Divisional Round, so the elimination-in-Divisional-Round future lost.

“give me the saints plus three and a half plus 160 money line”

Falcons beat the Saints 19-17 (Jan 4, 2026) — Saints moneyline loses. (Falcons 19, Saints 17)

“So to me, Dallas minus three and a half is literally a criminal line if this is a full strength game. So I'm playing the Cowboys.”

Giants beat the Cowboys 34-17 (Jan 4, 2026); Cowboys lost outright, missing -3.5. (Giants 34, Cowboys 17)

“Over 33 and a half points for the Cowboys, plus 330.”

Cowboys scored only 17 points in their 34-17 loss to the Giants (Jan 4, 2026) — under the 33.5 team total. (Cowboys 17 points)

“So give me a Bengals team total escalator. Over 26 and a half, [1:07:47] that's the line. It's too low.”

Bengals scored only 18 points in their 20-18 loss to the Browns (Jan 4, 2026) — under the 26.5 team total. (Bengals 18 points)

“So over one and a half touchdowns for Drake May. [1:11:19] It's minus 160,”

Drake Maye threw only 1 touchdown pass (15 yards to Stevenson), under the 1.5 line, in the Patriots' 38-10 win.

• Patriots
• Bengals
• Cowboys
• Commanders
• Lions
• Saints

“Patriots, Bengals, Cowboys favored, Commanders, Lions, Saints as underdogs. There is your pick six for the week. Three dogs, three favorites. It's about 36 to one.”

Six-team Week 18 pick-six: Patriots (38-10 win) and underdogs Commanders/Lions (both won outright) covered, but favorites Bengals (lost 18-20 to Browns) and Cowboys (lost 17-34 to Giants) lost outright, and underdog Saints lost 17-19 to Atlanta — parlay fails on multiple legs. (Patriots W, Bengals L, Cowboys L, Commanders W, Lions W, Saints L)

“I want touchdowns from these running backs and I want both of them. Kyron Williams, minus one 10 touchdown in seven of the last eight. You're giving me that at even money. Yes, please.”

Kyren Williams did not score in the Rams' 27-24 loss at Atlanta on Monday Night Football.

“I want touchdowns from these running backs and I want both of them. Kyron Williams, minus one 10 touchdown in seven of the last eight. You're giving me that at even money. Yes, please. And Blake Corum has scored a touchdown in four straight. He's plus 155 at DraftKings.”

Blake Corum left with an ankle injury in the 2nd quarter and did not score in the Falcons' 27-24 MNF win over the Rams.

“Second pick and third pick come from the same game You already know Steelers Ravens and you know how we doing it Play the hits unders and underdogs in Tomlin versus Harbaugh So under there still a 43 and a half out there 42 and a half at most books. This only goes that direction. Last three matchups 42 or above, but last 11 matchups, 34.5 points a game in this matchup. These are low scoring, grimy, ugly games. It's Sunday night. It's going to be cold. It's going to be wintry. Both defenses are trending up. Both offenses are unreliable, especially Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's defense, importantly, top five by DV at home, bottom five on the road. Huge delta. It matters a lot to me that this is in Pittsburgh. Give me the under. I think we get a blustery, classic Steelers-Ravens sort of outcome.”

PIT 26, BAL 24 — Combined 50; under 43.5 busts.

“I like the Colts and I'm going to bet them to win plus 245 on the money line or best you can find.”

IND 27, SF 48 — Indianapolis Colts lost; moneyline busts.

“I'm going to go over 51 and a half Cardinals and Bengals.”

CIN 37, ARI 14 — Combined 51; over 51.5 busts.

• Saints ML closed -298 · CLV +13¢ won
• Detroit Lions ML closed -410 · CLV +65¢ lost
• Titans ML closed +154 · CLV -9¢ won
• Dolphins ML closed +170 · CLV +15¢ lost
• Patriots ML closed +160 · CLV -10¢ won
• Colts ML closed +180 · CLV +30¢ lost

“Brandon, your pick six that you put out every week. This week probably my favorite because you got some dogs in there and I a dog guy So what are you doing with your pick six this week Yeah So look normally we throw in like five favorites and maybe one underdog or try to get a few shorter favorites And we get ourselves to like a five to one, maybe an eight to one. We've hit a couple in that range this week, a little something different. We're hoping for a Christmas miracle this week. We're going with four, four underdogs this week, plus two favorites, one of whom is the Saints. So we got Saints favorites with the Lions. Well, that's our two favorites. and then titans dolphins patriots and colts that's what we're doing this week it is last i checked at draft kings 114 to one odds”

Pick Six lost: Detroit, Miami, and Indianapolis lost outright.

“So give me a Lions minus six and a half.”

DET 24, PIT 29 — Detroit Lions margin -5 vs line -6.5; busts.

“And my extra point is this. Browns, worst record in the league. It's 22 to one right now.”

The Browns did not finish with the NFL's worst record; the Raiders, Jets, Cardinals, and Titans tied at 3-14 atop the draft order with Vegas taking the No. 1 pick.

“And the thing that cashed your tickets last week, I couldn't imagine. What are you doing with Buffalo and Cleveland? Yeah, same thing we did last week. Let's run it back. Skip the first half, play the second half. Bill's second half, minus four at the Browns. I honestly thought like, oh, man, the Bills are what, ten and a half now on the full game. I thought surely they'll put this like six or seven and I'll have taken our bet away but no they've loaded that up in the first half and ignored all the trends that we are betting on here so yeah let's run it back full game line I think a little too high I'd probably make this closer to a touchdown so I don't want the whole game 20 mile an hour looking wins below freezing total at like”

CLE 20, BUF 23 (full game); 2nd half: BUF 3, CLE 10 — Buffalo Bills 2nd-half score BUF 3, CLE 10 (margin -7) vs line -4; busts.

“vikings second half minus one and a half it's plus 105 at the giants”

NYG 13, MIN 16 (full game); 2nd half: MIN 3, NYG 3 — Minnesota Vikings 2nd-half score MIN 3, NYG 3 (margin 0) vs line -1.5; busts.

“he does is catch touchdowns he's going to be a hall of famer for all the touchdowns two touchdowns 13 to 1. Got to play that as well because he keeps doing that in his career. A little bit on the yards, but I'll play more on the touchdowns. 55 and a half. Give me the over on that. He's over in eight of his last 10 healthy games. And those touchdown receivers against Carolina mentioned 93 yards per game Evans in those last 10 games 89 yards or better in 8 out of 10 So a little escalator in 90 yards plus 320 Remember he hit that one last week So no touchdown last week. My man's thirsty. He needs some touchdowns. The Panthers are the perfect antidote. So Mike Evans, give me a touchdown or two. Yeah, the two underlying factors why I also”

CAR 23, TB 20 — Mike Evans: 31 receiving_yards vs over 55.5; busts. (Mike Evans: 31 receiving_yards)

“First one, A-chan. Give me some A-chan stock. We tried it on Monday night. We tried for the big rushing yards. He got a lot of yards, just not all rushing. 60 yards rushing, but 67 receiving yards. on six catches. And that's been the A-Chan thing this year. He's a very dual threat. Eight games now with five catches or more. But we know the Bengals are awful. Awful, awful, awful defensively. Number one, most running back fantasy points, including number one, most receiving points to fantasy running backs. I think you use A-Chan to protect your new quarterback. You either run with him or you dump it off to him. Just get him the ball, let him do his thing. So we're going combined yards here. Most books you can bet rushing plus receiving yards. That's what I want. Last four games for A-Chan, here's his combined yards. 127 on Monday night. Before that, 134, 165, and 225. Average 163 combined yards per game. He is a workhorse. He's the guy you want in fantasy right now. He's put up huge numbers. We need just 120. 120 combined yards is even odds at DraftKings.”

De'Von Achane had 81 rushing + 9 receiving = 90 combined yards, under the 120-yard line, in the Dolphins' 45-21 loss to Cincinnati.

“That's what Bengals opposing tight end, quote unquote, has put up, like an all-time tight end season. 15 touchdowns just to tight ends. We expect scoring. We like the shootout. Got to play a Waller touchdown I don really care who throwing to him It not like two was that good anyway It plus 325 for a Waller touchdown and 25 to 1 for 2 i gotta play both of those so h and and waller for the dolphins i got one on the bangles but what do you think about my dolphins i like them both so i'll start with h and first and i'll you know the good and the bad”

Darren Waller had 3 catches for 40 yards with no touchdown in the Dolphins' 45-21 loss to Cincinnati.

“Yeah, Cincinnati. So look, if I think Miami can actually hang around in this game or even have a lead, then now you've got Cincinnati passing, which they're going to be doing anyways, let's be honest. And I think I like Chase Brown to catch a lot of passes for them. We've played this a couple different times. He's had six or more receptions in half of the last 10 games. Now he's had seven or more catches, four of the last 10. Miami is sixth most in receptions to running backs on the season. They've had five running backs catch, or sorry, four running backs catch five or more, including last week, Monday night, we just watched it. Kenny Gainwell catching all sorts of passes. He had seven. Steelers running backs had 10 catches just in that game. So if we do get negative game script here for the Bengals, that helps. We get lots of quick little dumps I just think Chase Brown has a good chance to catch some passes. So just a quick little receptions escalator. I'll split my bet between six and seven. So six catches plus 350. Seven is seven to one. Maybe a little touch on eight catches at 13 to one He did do that once already this season So nothing too fancy there just hopefully i prefer t higgins out for this one just because there more catches to go around that way but i'll like it all right either way chase brown receptions escalator yeah a lot of”

MIA 21, CIN 45 — Chase Brown had 4 receptions, missing the 6+ receptions milestone. (Chase Brown: 4 receptions)

“So I want Patriots first half, but I want Patriots full game too. So Patriots halftime full time is plus 240.”

BAL 24, NE 28 — The game was tied 10-10 at halftime, so the Patriots/Patriots halftime-fulltime wager lost despite New England's 28-24 full-time win. (Halftime: NE 10, BAL 10)

“I'm going to fade the Ravens again next week [1:07:12] by taking Packers minus three in Green Bay against the Ravens.”

GB 24, BAL 41 — Green Bay Packers margin -17 vs line -3; busts.

“miami's just going to run at the blitz and run past them a-chan ended up leaving last game injured but his last three healthy games here's the line 22 for 174 21 for 120 22 for 134 that's big carries that is lead belkow back in big production he scored a touchdown nine of 13 games this season I going to take some A yardage here I think he going to have a big game Steelers run defense is missing those dudes up front They allowed 90 yards to a running back one for the last five games So I'm going to play the 90 plus 145. I'm starting right at the alt.”

PIT 28, MIA 15 — De'Von Achane had 60 rushing yards, missing the 90+ rushing-yards milestone. (De'Von Achane: 60 rushing_yards)

“Eagles at the Commanders, under 45 and a half.”

WSH 18, PHI 29 — Combined 47; under 45.5 busts.

“falcons cardinals over 45 and a half”

ARI 19, ATL 26 — Combined 45; over 45.5 busts.

“Jets with the points plus 13 and a half we had a Panthers month here in the podcast four straight”

JAX 48, NYJ 20 — New York Jets margin -28 vs line +13.5; busts.

“in this game, I'm just going to play the fourth quarter angle [22:48] over 11.5 points in the fourth quarter.”

Q4: GB 3, DEN 7 (Final DEN 34, GB 26) — Fourth-quarter combined 10 (GB 3, DEN 7); under 11.5, busts.

“earlier preseason lines the preseason line on this game was lions favored by a point and a half we're a full touchdown move the other way and i know there's some lions injuries the lions have good man like this game should not have moved a full touchdown toward the rams i just think the line is too high here and i think this matters more to detroit so i'm gonna play the money line plus 225”

LAR 41, DET 34 — Detroit Lions lost; moneyline busts.

“Here's the two Puka props I'm going to play. 10 receptions is plus 220. 150 yards is plus 451 at DraftKings. So I'm going to kind of just go for some higher rungs on the old escalator and try some Puka stock that way.”

Puka Nacua had 9 receptions against Detroit, missing the 10+ receptions milestone. (9 rec, 181 yds)

“juan yeah well we got to have a long shot tight end play each week i guess on the podcast so juan johnson come on down you're the next contestant on the prices right back to tight ends against carolina i'm not playing a side here this is yet another game i'm basically at a coin flip on Saints are a bad matchup for Carolina we picked them last time for the upset when the Panthers were favorites Carolina's not a good favorite we've talked about that a lot I like the tight end angle Carolina last in the league DVOA against tight ends bottom five defending the middle six most yards allowed Jawan Johnson's snaps are down actually since Taysom Hill got came back but his stats have not dropped at all despite less stats or less snaps because he's catching about 80% of his balls now. I think Tyler Shuck is delivering a better ball to Jawan Johnson than Spencer Rattler was. He's still been with Shuck, five and a half targets a game, four and a half catches, 49 yards. So I started at over three and a half receptions. He's done that four of the five Shuck games. Minus 130. Eh, I don't need a minus 130 on a no-name tight end like this. Give me the yards instead. 38 yards. That's a pretty easy line. He's hit that four in a row. So over 37 and a half.”

NO 20, CAR 17 — Juwan Johnson: 30 receiving_yards vs over 37.5; busts. (Juwan Johnson: 30 receiving_yards)

“I just want to talk about Christian McCaffrey, Offensive Player of the Year. 25 to 1. This was my extra point in the Pick 6 article”

Jaxon Smith-Njigba won 2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, not Christian McCaffrey.

“We're going to Denver and backing the Broncos. I think I backed the Broncos last week. I guess they're slowly winning me over. Denver minus two and a half against Jacksonville at DraftKings.”

DEN 20, JAX 34 — Denver Broncos margin -14 vs line -2.5; busts.

“in our comments here Crazy Shorts 13 938 called this one give me a Dallas Goddard touchdown the Chargers are dead last DVOA against the tight end they've not faced a lot of tight ends but here's who they've faced Kelsey Bowers Lawler Warren and Bowers again those five dudes have five touchdowns in their games. So they've at least one touchdown in four of the five. Goddard, career-high seven touchdowns, at least one in almost half his games, plus 340 for Goddard touchdown.”

Dallas Goedert caught 8 passes for 78 yards but scored no TD in the Eagles' 22-19 OT loss at the Chargers.

“You can't do sports every night. Buccaneers, Falcons, under, and don't watch it. Nothing's happening. Get it before the key numbers, under 44 and a half.”

TB 28, ATL 29 — Combined 57; under 44.5 busts.

“this one i put out on twitter here's a bonus hot read a futurist hot read nicky manuari defensive rookie of the year best number you can find i still saw a 30 to 1 out there my dude from seattle today alone had a sack and interception and a block field goal have you seen the defensive rookie of your class that's it you win defensive rookie of the year from one game alone like there's no competition out here if this name sounds familiar it should we had him on our first extra point like six weeks ago 60 to one i'm betting again i already bet it again”

Nick Emmanwori lost 2025 Defensive Rookie of the Year to Browns LB Carson Schwesinger (40 first-place votes to 7).

• Seahawks ML closed -355 · CLV +10¢ won
• Buccaneers ML closed -425 · CLV -45¢ lost
• Broncos ML closed -520 · CLV +65¢ won
• Rams ML closed -485 · CLV -35¢ won
• Packers ML closed -305 · CLV -5¢ won
• Dolphins ML closed -148 · CLV 0¢ won

“six this is a money line parlay of six teams that ba puts on the site every week where are you going what are you doing this is your best yeah we're back we didn't have one for thanksgiving week so We're back this time all on the main slate on Sunday. Three early games, three late games. There are a lot of big favorites. There are a lot of like right around a touchdown favorites this week. I took five of them out of my six. So Seahawks, Bucs, Early, Broncos, Rams, Packers, all in the late slate. And then the one shorter favorite, Miami on the road against the Jets. We'll get back to that one shortly. So all those touchdown favorites mean this is a pretty good teaser week. Pick the two that you like best out of there, and it's a pretty good teaser spot. our six together coming around plus 410 on the parlay at DraftKings. And this is a tricky week.”

Parlay busts: Seahawks ML — won; Buccaneers ML — lost; Broncos ML — won; Rams ML — won; Packers ML — won; Dolphins ML — won.

“Bucks, Saints, what are you doing there? Yeah, a couple of half plays here. I'm going to go first half Tampa on this one, minus five and a half on the first half line. So this kind of goes well with the last pick.”

1H: TB 10, NO 7 (Final: TB 20, NO 24) — Buccaneers led 10-7 at halftime; 1H margin +3 vs required -5.5; busts.

“Broncos second half at the Raiders, [17:11] minus three and a half.”

2nd half: DEN 10, LV 10 (full game final DEN 24, LV 17) — Denver 2nd-half margin +0 (Broncos 10, Raiders 10 in Q3+Q4) vs line -3.5; does not cover.

“a little Raiders team total mineshaft too, just in case they really can't score [20:22] under 10 and a half is three to one.”

LV 17, DEN 24 — Combined 41; under 10.5 busts.

• Broncos -1.5 (teased) won
• Buccaneers -2.5 (teased) lost

“And then the reason I put this right after the Bucs game, I mentioned teasers earlier. These two together is my favorite teaser this week as well. So let's do a six-point teaser. Broncos full game down to one and a half. Bucs full game down to two and a half. Why do you tease? Because we're getting past all those key numbers. We skipped the seven and the six. We skipped the three. It's a good teaser spot for both of those. I think this is my favorite teaser of the week.”

Parlay busts: Broncos -1.5 (teased) -1.5 — won; Buccaneers -2.5 (teased) -2.5 — lost.

“and the escalator here and now you're thinking like well is it the division whoever you like in the division probably i've got bears tickets i've already bet the lines a couple times like i can't keep betting i've seen north anymore here's the better escalator pick if green bay gets the win here. They are right now, even without this game, they are the third most likely team to be a top two seed in the NFL. The Broncos and the Patriots and the AFC, but Green Bay, before the Rams, before Seattle, is the most likely NFC top two seed. If you're top two seed, if you win a lot of games and maybe even the one seed, you are in the mix for MVP. And Jordan Love, 19-1 MVP, is a big futures article I put out this week. We talked about Stafford. We talked about Drake May. Those teams are still vulnerable. Nobody's run away with this thing. And if Jordan Love keeps the Toyota-thon stats going, four touchdowns on Thanksgiving, he has a chance here to beat the one seed. And then next week they play Denver. You could beat the one seed back-to-back weeks as Green Bay. I think you get some buzz there a little bit. So 19 to 1, I think, is fully in play for Love to make a push if Stafford may slip up a little bit.”

Matthew Stafford won 2025 NFL MVP; Jordan Love did not win.

“why I'm also playing Chiefs to win the AFC plus 950 and a little bit on the Super Bowl ticket at [35:34] 18 to 1.”

The Patriots won the AFC Championship for the 2025 season; the Chiefs did not win the AFC.

“rest they're off a loss this is it for them they gotta have it and I think honestly there is a chance, this could be the most the Chiefs are pushed until the AFC championship game. And that's why I'm also playing Chiefs to win the AFC plus 950 and a little bit on the Super Bowl ticket at 18 to 1. This now finally, I think, is the time to invest in Chiefs futures. And here's the real reason. It's not that the Chiefs are amazing. I think the Chiefs are good. I think their metrics”

The Seahawks won Super Bowl LX 29-13 over the Patriots; the Chiefs did not win the Super Bowl.

“I like Brenton Strange, so I'm going to take his over 39.5 receiving yards here.”

JAX 36, IND 19 — Brenton Strange: 27 receiving_yards vs over 39.5; busts. (Brenton Strange: 27 receiving_yards)

“The Lions are priced in here because they know the Bengals defense is terrible, but we're playing it anyway. Last Buffalo wins. Here's the last four times that they've won a game. Cook has had last week 32 rushes, 144 yards against the Steelers. That Chiefs game, 27 for 114. against the Panthers, 19 for 216 yards and two scores. I just think this sets up as kind of a proxy for a Bills win If the Bills win why It probably because James Cook did it which is a weird thing to say about Buffalo So I taking the escalator all the way Start with the rushing yards 95 and a half Just that the line but we playing it The Bengals allow 153 a game.”

BUF 39, CIN 34 — James Cook III: 80 rushing_yards vs over 95.5; busts. (James Cook III: 80 rushing_yards)

“Titans, Browns, you know we're going under 34 and a half, [58:02] and we're taking the mind shaft.”

CLE 29, TEN 31 — Combined 60; under 34.5 busts.

“Cleveland to get a shutout, 16-1 at DraftKings.”

Cleveland did not record a shutout; the Browns scored 29 in a 31-29 loss to Tennessee.

“But if somebody does score, you already know who I'm taking. It's Quinshawn Judkins, the one guy who's the running back against the Titans. We've been betting all season. Titans have allowed 14 running back touchdowns, second most in the league. They've allowed at least one, all but two games. I think the weeks we bet them, to be honest. Judkins in Cleveland's wins, six touchdowns and three wins, at least one every game. He's only had one touchdown, all their other losses combined. So Judkins is almost even odds for a touchdown at minus 110. And then even better, one last bet”

Quinshon Judkins had 26 rush yards and no TD in the Browns' 31-29 loss to Tennessee.

• Quinshon Judkins anytime TD lost
• Under 34 closed +33.5 · CLV +0.5 lost

“So Judkins is almost even odds for a touchdown at minus 110. And then even better, one last bet here for you. Give me the Judkins touchdown and the under 34 plus 375 because they have to price in this extra boost there because there's just not many touchdowns to go around hopefully judkins gets the only one and get out of here maybe tennessee doesn't score at all we can hit a bunch”

Parlay busts: Quinshon Judkins anytime TD — lost; Under 34 — lost.

“Finish the job, Abdul Carter. So honestly, everyone above Carter on the pressure list has at least four sacks. He's at a half on the season. I think some regression is coming. Two sacks, probably not going to happen, but let's find out. It's plus 1540.”

Abdul Carter had just 1 sack vs the Patriots, short of the 2+ sacks needed.

“and then here's the real escalator. I don't think it's too late for this. Abdul Carter's numbers underneath are pretty good. 20 to 1 for defensive rookie of the year I think still is in play.”

Browns LB Carson Schwesinger won 2025 Defensive Rookie of the Year; Carter was a finalist but lost.

“We're going to go Steelers, Ravens under. [1:15:07] You know how I love Steelers, Ravens, unders. [1:15:10] It's 45 and a half at DraftKings.”

BAL 22, PIT 27 — Combined 49; under 45.5 busts.

“Saints Bucks under 43 and a half another one I threw in the app this morning”

TB 20, NO 24 — Combined 44; under 43.5 busts.

“So I'm going to take the Lions minus two and a half against the Packers.”

DET 24, GB 31 — Detroit Lions margin -7 vs line -2.5; busts.

“I'm not going to go crazy with the yards bet here. And I thought, okay, give me the rushing attempts. So 10 rushing attempts is what I looked at, but that's minus 125. I don't love the median outcome there, especially pretty well juiced with the lower roll lately. But in 30 games since Gibbs was drafted where Montgomery's had double-digit carries, he has a touchdown 23 of those, so about three-quarters of the time. And he also has five touchdowns and five Packers games as well in that stretch. So I'll play the touchdown for Montgomery at plus 140. and then I will play rushing attempts just the higher line 15 attempts at 7-1”

David Montgomery finished below the 15+ rushing-attempts milestone in Detroit's Thanksgiving loss to Green Bay.

“one against the packers including 10 by jameer gibbs gibbs is actually getting more snaps lately and you mentioned montgomery routes are up gibbs routes are even further up That to me is a Sam Laporta thing They got to funnel routes somewhere And I think they're using these guys even more as receivers. Gibbs has had two straight weeks now where he's the second highest line in first read target shares, presumably behind Amonra St. Brown because that's how it goes. But he's kind of become their second receiver. Jamison Williams still hasn't become that. He's the big play guy, but Gibbs is getting a lot of volume. So he's had all three of his seasons now, four games with five or more receptions. So we'll play that five receptions at plus 150.”

DET 24, GB 31 — Jahmyr Gibbs had 3 receptions, missing the 5+ receptions milestone. (Jahmyr Gibbs: 3 receptions)

“So he's had all three of his seasons now, four games with five or more receptions. So we'll play that five receptions at plus 150. Gibbs also has five games now where he's had at least seven catches, including that Packers game week one. And last week, he had 11 catches against the Giants. So I will play seven Gibbs catches at six to one odds as well.”

DET 24, GB 31 — Jahmyr Gibbs had 3 receptions, missing the 7+ receptions milestone. (Jahmyr Gibbs: 3 receptions)

“Either way, give me the Chiefs minus three.”

DAL 31, KC 28 — Kansas City Chiefs margin -3 vs line -3; busts.

• Ravens -6.5 closed -7.5 · CLV +1 lost
• Under 51.5 closed +52.5 · CLV -1 won

“So I'm going to play them both together tepidly, but Ravens minus six and a half, under 51 and [38:30] a half, it's plus 266.”

Parlay busts: Ravens -6.5 -6.5 — lost; Under 51.5 +51.5 — won.

“Baltimore if I like them here? Well, it's the Bengals. So how about a tight end? The Bengals continue to be awful against tight ends. They've allowed the most fancy points, their worst guy DV away, worst against short passes. The Bengals have already allowed 13 touchdowns to tight ends on the season, which is more than any team allowed all of last season. In fact, they've allowed 11 the last seven games alone. So which tight end? Well, Ravens fans would beg you, not Mark Andrews. The dude can't catch anything right now. I'm taking Mark Andrews. Isaiah Likely, not totally healthy right now. So Andrews did drop a big one last week, like he is known to do at times, but he also played his most snaps since week six, about two thirds of the snaps, a little bit more in 11 personnel, a little bit more in the field. And he still is Lamar's guy, I think, in the red zone. So Andrews has a touchdown in four of eight games with Lamar Jackson this year. Now 14 of his last 20, so 70%. We get him at plus 125. I'll take Andrews for the touchdown.”

Mark Andrews had 4 catches for 47 yards and no TD in the Ravens' 32-14 loss to the Bengals.

“But it's hard to overlook what Jamar Chase did to the Ravens last year. In those two games, lest you forgot, 10 catches, 193 yards, and two scores. But wait, that's just one of the games. The other one, 11 catches, 264 yards, and three scores. Remember that? We all watched that one. I think it maybe was a Thursday night game. That's like 450 yards and five touchdowns. That's half a season for most good receivers. So I obviously don't expect that to happen. I would not parlay this pick with my Ravens and under because it's very much against the script. But Chase does hit that big number sometimes, 141 yards or more, eight times the last three seasons. So if that is right, I'll take 150 yards at 7-1.”

BAL 14, CIN 32 — Ja'Marr Chase had 110 receiving yards, missing the 150+ receiving-yards milestone. (Ja'Marr Chase: 110 receiving_yards)

“So Gibbs plus 190 for most running back [44:33] receiving yards.”

Gibbs had just 18 receiving yards on Thanksgiving; Bengals RB Chase Brown led all running backs with 35 receiving yards. (Gibbs 3 rec, 18 yds; Chase Brown 3 rec, 35 yds)

• Patrick Mahomes most passing yards
• Rashee Rice most receiving yards
• Derrick Henry most rushing yards

“DraftKings has a bunch of these really fun specials up. You can bet on most passing yards on Thanksgiving, most receiving yards. I like two of the receiving yards ones. I'm going to play the most running back receiving yards and the most tight end receiving yards. And it shouldn't surprise you. I'm going to take Jameer Gibbs and Mark Andrews. So Gibbs plus 190 for most running back receiving yards. We're already on him to get volume there. Chase Brown, I think is probably the biggest threat, but really not a lot of great competition there. So I like that one a lot. Andrews yards not been great this year you're not gonna enjoy looking at his game log but four to one against the Bengals basically I'm just gonna take a shot at the at the number and the matchup with Andrews and maybe turns back the clock and gets a long catch or two and then last one for me I love on Thanksgiving to do the triple crown So passing rushing and receiving yardage leaders So Derek Henry is like the free space to me as far as like I'm starting there, at least with him on this one. And then I'm gonna go with both Chiefs. So we played them as well, Mahomes and Rasheed. I'll play them together, obvious correlation that if Mahomes' yardage is high, Rasheed probably goes up as well. So after half Kings, the two Chiefs plus Derek Henry is 40 to one for the Triple Crown.”

Mahomes was not the Thanksgiving slate's passing leader - Dak Prescott out-threw him roughly 320+ yards to 261, sinking the Triple Crown parlay. (Prescott ~320-329 yds vs. Mahomes 261 yds)

“prop here, Devontae Smith receptions escalator. So a key matchup I looked at, the Eagles played the Saints last year week three and they beat them 15 to 12 okay who cares well I care because Dennis Allen was the defensive coordinator in that game and the fact that they held the Eagles to only 15 and it took a last second touchdown really for the Eagles to steal it it's not great looking out for for the Eagles here but Devonta in that game 10 targets seven catches 79 yards keeps finding spots in the zone and AJ was out that game and will play here but the Bears have a lot a lot of fancy points to receivers top five in the league but they're very good actually against wide receiver one and then kind of progressively worse down the line so if we get a weather game i think i prefer the short passing the volume and especially if davante can pick apart the zone a little bit so he's had six or more catches in five of nine games this year i'll play that i'll play six catches at plus 200 eight catches at plus 690 and just hope that it's a davante kind of picking apart the spots on this defense but otherwise give me the bears over the team total”

PHI 15, CHI 24 — DeVonta Smith had 5 receptions, missing the 6+ receptions milestone. (DeVonta Smith: 5 receptions)

“prop here, Devontae Smith receptions escalator. So a key matchup I looked at, the Eagles played the Saints last year week three and they beat them 15 to 12 okay who cares well I care because Dennis Allen was the defensive coordinator in that game and the fact that they held the Eagles to only 15 and it took a last second touchdown really for the Eagles to steal it it's not great looking out for for the Eagles here but Devonta in that game 10 targets seven catches 79 yards keeps finding spots in the zone and AJ was out that game and will play here but the Bears have a lot a lot of fancy points to receivers top five in the league but they're very good actually against wide receiver one and then kind of progressively worse down the line so if we get a weather game i think i prefer the short passing the volume and especially if davante can pick apart the zone a little bit so he's had six or more catches in five of nine games this year i'll play that i'll play six catches at plus 200 eight catches at plus 690 and just hope that it's a davante kind of picking apart the spots on this defense but otherwise give me the bears over the team total”

PHI 15, CHI 24 — DeVonta Smith had 5 receptions, missing the 8+ receptions milestone. (DeVonta Smith: 5 receptions)

“Steelers plus four and a half,”

PIT 7, BUF 26 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -19 vs line +4.5; busts.

“Steelers plus four and a half, and I'll touch the money line at plus 175.”

PIT 7, BUF 26 — Pittsburgh Steelers lost; moneyline busts.

“jets alt minus six and a half plus 288”

NYJ 27, ATL 24 — New York Jets margin +3 vs line -6.5; busts.

“invest too much in Daniel Jones against this Houston defense. We just saw what they did to Josh Allen, why would I want Daniel Jones? Well, if I do want Colts, I'm going to like them better early. So I'm going to play Colts first quarter minus half a point. So they actually have to win the first quarter. I can't, I'm going to lose a tie. It's plus 114.”

Q1: HOU 3, IND 0 — Colts lost the 1st quarter 0-3 to Houston (Colts needed to win outright); vs line -0.5, busts.

“And this is a team, don't forget, we keep playing tight ends against the Panthers because they were the second worst team last year also to tight ends and had the most touchdowns allowed as well. So Kittle touched down four of his six games this year, seven of his last 15. So about half the time, he has really been Purdy's go-to guy, especially. Plus 145 for a kill touchdown. Two touchdowns is 11 to one. And then last 14 games with Purdy is averaging 75. yards. I'll play the yards as well, over 54 and a half. So play the yards, play the touchdown”

George Kittle did not score in the 49ers' 20-9 MNF win; SF TDs went to Jennings and McCaffrey only.

“Broncos, Commanders, under 43 and a half.”

WSH 26, DEN 27 — Combined 53; under 43.5 busts.

• Lions ML closed -1050 · CLV +130¢ won
• Seahawks ML closed -900 · CLV -50¢ won
• Rams ML closed -360 · CLV 0¢ won
• 49ers ML closed -390 · CLV 0¢ won
• Cardinals ML closed +114 · CLV +31¢ lost
• Bengals ML closed +300 · CLV -50¢ lost

“I believe we're at like 250% ROI right now because, you know, we're throwing six money lines together. So we'll be in the good even if we miss the rest of the season. But we're going to keep firing. We got six picks to make. So this week, starting with two big favorites that we just talked about, the Lions and the Seahawks, locked and loaded on those two. And then ending with two primetime favorites, the Rams Sunday night, the Niners on Monday night. But right in the middle, we're getting aggressive again this week. and uh this is kind of the pick six this week is a pretty good preview of the show to come give me the bangles on the money line the big money line and give me the cardinals all those six together look it was about 21 to 1 when i took it the borough news and the bangles news has been all over the place i don't quite know exactly what the line is at this moment but we're going to get into really most of those games on our show today so lions seahawks Rams Niners is the big favorites Cardinals Bengals got a win not just a cover get them all together something like 20 to 1 and we'll see if we can get our biggest pick six of the season”

Parlay busts: Lions ML — won; Seahawks ML — won; Rams ML — won; 49ers ML — won; Cardinals ML — lost; Bengals ML — lost.

“and I get the better offense. The Bengals have the better weapons. And now if Burrow's playing the better quarterback too. So give me the six and a half or the six, whatever best line you can get, obviously. Give me the plus 250 money line. I'll say this. Probably at this point, you may wait and find out who's actually playing quarterback. Because if it's Burrow, you're going to lose a little bit more on the line, but you're going to know it's Burrow and you're going to want the pick. If it's not Burrow and it goes back to Flacco, I do think it gets to seven or past again. You're going to get a better line out of it. So I think go ahead and wait. But for the podcast today, as we're live now, that's the pick. And then I still like the division odds as well at 40 to one.”

CIN 20, NE 26 — Cincinnati Bengals lost; moneyline busts.

“five of the seven had at least six catches and 97 yards average six for 90 t higgins last five games without chase that's about his numbers too 6.2 catches 102 yards three of the five games 114 yards so that's kind of the line i'm shooting for with higgins 90 yards is where i'm going to play it at plus 240”

CIN 20, NE 26 — Tee Higgins recorded 31 receiving yards, falling short of 90+. (Tee Higgins: 31 receiving_yards)

“So I like the over four and a half catches for Chase Brown. That's even odds.”

CIN 20, NE 26 — Chase Brown: 2 receptions vs over 4.5; busts. (Chase Brown: 2 receptions)

“ATS, 73%. So just a lot of value here on the underdog. And I really can't believe we're getting the plus three. We get the full key number here. So I love to get that and plus 145 on the money line as well and then of course we're going to keep riding with Trey McBride it's tight ends day”

ARI 24, JAX 27 — Arizona Cardinals lost; moneyline busts.

“So McBride touchdown second straight week Just run it back, plus 110.”

Trey McBride had 9 catches for 79 yards but no TD in the Cardinals' 27-24 OT loss to Jacksonville.

“let's get to our lightning round here uh just another game on this on the docket uh i said of all the double digit favorites this week this was probably my favorite for a blowout uh i would prefer a certain quarterback on the other side but we will have to see there you're looking at giants and lions what do you like here yeah i think we're on the same page give me the lions minus 10 and I'm going to play the blow at escalator as well so this was the look ahead we gave out last week nine and a half hasn't really moved up like I thought it would I still”

DET 34, NYG 27 — Detroit Lions margin +7 vs line -10; busts.

“Detroit here we go all right uh let's go to the next one here uh Seattle and the Titans huge road line but listen it's Tennessee it's what you get every single week with them so I assume you're not laying it so how are you taking it yeah i'm not laying it this one not on the road this is another one of those big double digit favorites i'm going to take the under here and just give me the game under 40 and a half so last week we got the dvoa bowl one versus two seahawks versus rams whatever”

TEN 24, SEA 30 — Combined 54; under 40.5 busts.

“what else do I know about Luanarumo? Luanarumo's defenses are awful against tight ends. So I'm going Travis Kelsey here. Bengals were the worst team against tight ends last year. They're awful again this year. The Colts are now the fifth worst team against tight ends. Fifth worst DVOA, fifth most tight end points allowed. They're really good against Y-0-1, so this is not a Rashear Ice game necessarily. I think it's a Travis Kelsey game. The Colts haven't really faced great tight ends yet, but they did give up 164 and a touchdown to Gadsden, kind of his breakout game. They did face Trey McBride. He had 871 in a score. So I think Kelsey's line, it under it uh 50 and a half yards i think it just disrespectful to the old man like i i know we kind of like getting ready to send him out to pasture soon Even with him coming down this season he at 47 yards or more all but one game That the line Basically we need four yards above his floor to hit the over So over 50 and a half yards. And I'm not going to go super too crazy on the escalator. I'm not picturing like a”

KC 23, IND 20 — Travis Kelce: 43 receiving_yards vs over 50.5; busts. (Travis Kelce: 43 receiving_yards)

“Brown sacks, Raiders sacks. Give me that for the Raiders because I think we're going to get some sacks of Shadur. I'd love like an escalator there. I don't think we'll find that one, but like a five plus escalator on the sacks. I do think we'll be able to bet Max Crosby to get a sack. So that's my official bet here. Crosby has at least one sack in five of 10 games this season. His last time with the line was a quarter of a sack. We're not getting that against Chidder. They're too smart to give us that, but I'll take a sack for him. And then again, I think if you”

Maxx Crosby recorded five TFL but no sack in the Raiders' 24-10 loss to Cleveland (ESPN game log shows 0 sacks).

“week 13 we are coming down to the wire week 13 lucky 13 last week you had the lions minus nine and a half this week thanksgiving question mark yeah the time-honored tradition of betting against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Let's keep it very easy. Save the Cowboys, bet the Chiefs. Chiefs minus three and a half. Since 2011, Dallas is three and 11 against the spread on Thanksgiving. 21% cover rate, just bet against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. To me, Thanksgiving is a lot about”

DAL 31, KC 28 — Kansas City Chiefs margin -3 vs line -3.5; busts.

“breakout spot for the rookie, Ashton Gentry. I like him for the touchdown, minus 140, your best number you can find.”

Ashton Jeanty did not score in the Raiders' 33-16 Week 11 MNF loss to Dallas (only Raiders TD was Tre Tucker).

“And I'm going to sprinkle two on rookie of the year. I still think rookie of the year is open. Tett McMillan had a big game today, but he's got a long way to go. Agbuka kind of down over the last month. Jackson Dart is out. We don't know how much he's going to play. It doesn't feel like we have a clear rookie of the year winner. And I know Gentry, he was the favorite coming into the year. He hasn't done much, but has not done much, is on pace right now for 1,300 combined yards and 14 scores. That's not terrible for not doing much. And if you get a good game against the Cowboys. You still get the Chargers. Look what they did today against the run. You get the Giants coming up, the worst team against the run. If he kind of pushes a little bit further, we might be looking at like 1,600 yards, 1820 scores on the season. That feels like rookie of the year. Gentry's 50 to one right now at some books. So I'm going to take that as a Monday night play on top of the touchdown bet”

Ashton Jeanty did not win 2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year; Tetairoa McMillan won.

“Bengals plus seven. Give me the [1:29:09] money line plus 285”

CIN 20, NE 26 — Cincinnati Bengals lost; moneyline busts.

“let's end it right bangles escalator hear me out to win [1:29:18] the division at 40 to 1 at draft kings”

The Bengals (3-8 stretch) did not win the AFC North; the Steelers won the division at 10-7.

“A lot of injuries on both sides. I think that's part of why the line is what it is. the Eagles injuries are significant to four of their five linemen are on the injury report and especially Lane Johnson was in and out last week he is huge to their game week after week so I just trust the lines more both sides of the ball I trust more they get the better special teams I trust their coaches more it's a luck side this week as well from our luck rankings so lines plus three be sure to grab the three if you can while it's there nine straight lines wins have been by”

PHI 16, DET 9 — Detroit Lions margin -7 vs line +3; busts.

“Lions minus five and a half is the alt I'm going to play [14:02] plus 246”

PHI 16, DET 9 — Detroit Lions margin -7 vs line -5.5; busts.

“for Jared Goff to show up while we're all watching. And if they make a run at the one seat, I think he's won over people enough to get a little credit now. Goff is 30 to one. I'm not calling my shot as MVP, but I think it's the right ticket to add in this matchup. So Lions plus three, Lions alt, Jared Goff, MVP. Sunday night, that's where we're going to start and that's where we'll finish.”

Jared Goff did not win 2025 NFL MVP; Matthew Stafford won the award.

“So under eight and a half points in the first quarter.”

DEN 6, KC 3 (1Q) — 1st quarter combined 9 (KC 3, DEN 6); under 8.5 busts.

“Chase to lead the league in receiving yards on the season plus 550 he's a couple hundred behind Jackson Smith and Jigba right now but the Bengals are terrible they're going to be passing all year whether it's Burrow or Flacco or whoever it is and a pretty inviting schedule and Chase can put up some huge lines. So I started there. I got my future.”

Ja'Marr Chase (1,412 yds) did not lead the NFL in 2025 receiving yards; Jaxon Smith-Njigba led with 1,793.

“to the other guy, T Higgins, who also is doing pretty well lately. Four games with Flacco, 4.8 catches, 81 yards a game, averaging a touchdown a game. In that Pittsburgh game, as good as Chase was, T, 10 targets, 6 for 96 and a score. So I think he can have a good game with Chase. Or, hey, maybe Pittsburgh will decide to cover Jamar Chase this time. What a novel concept. And if they do, perhaps T will be open. So 80 yards plus 230, 100 yards at 5 to 1. it's a jamar chase angle but to pivot to the prices that are a little bit lower because the”

PIT 34, CIN 12 — Tee Higgins: 63 receiving_yards vs over 80; busts. (Tee Higgins: 63 receiving_yards)

“So straight to the alts here. 100 yards for Warren, plus 310, 120 yards is 7-1.”

PIT 34, CIN 12 — Jaylen Warren: 62 rushing_yards vs over 100; busts. (Jaylen Warren: 62 rushing_yards)

“Start with the rushing attempts. I think we just feed Dowdle a lot. 22 carries at DraftKings plus 155, 24 carries plus 261.”

Rico Dowdle had 19 rushing attempts in the Panthers' 30-27 Week 11 win over the Falcons, under the 22 line.

“I think we just feed Dowdle a lot. 22 carries at DraftKings plus 155, 24 carries plus 261. In three of the four games where he's been the Belco, he's had 23 or more carries. So I think those are right in line And if he does I think the volume comes the yards come as well He had games already this year 130 183 206 So get ready We going all the way to the top and we're starting at 140, 140 rushing yards. Remember, that's the number that we're expecting from our like 84% math. That's the number Atlanta has been allowing six to one for 140. And we're going to go 160 180 200 and those prices are plus 950 and then about 17 to 1 and 25 to 1 all at draft kings”

ATL 27, CAR 30 — Rico Dowdle: 45 rushing_yards vs over 140; busts. (Rico Dowdle: 45 rushing_yards)

“Give me the Lions minus nine and a half against the Giants next week.”

DET 34, NYG 27 — Detroit Lions margin +7 vs line -9.5; busts.

• Indianapolis Colts ML
• Buffalo Bills ML closed -455 · CLV -100¢
• Chicago Bears ML closed -225 · CLV 0¢
• Detroit Lions ML closed -450 · CLV -10¢
• Seattle Seahawks ML closed -340 · CLV 0¢
• Los Angeles Rams ML closed -260 · CLV -2¢

“All right. Before we get going, though, we have Brandon's pick six. So every week now he's got a column. He's got a 16. Arlay. I believe he's what are you one for three, one for two. I can't remember. But this week, he'll tell me in a second. You've got six favorites, so what can go wrong? What are you doing? Yeah, one for three. We hit the first one, then we missed on a long shot, and then last week we missed because my Vikings messed up my own parlay. So this week, no Vikings involved, and everything this week is on Sunday. We've had some of the primetime games. No primetime games on this one either, just Sunday daytime. We'll start in the morning in Berlin, give me the Colts, then early slate, Bills and Bears, and then all three games. We only have three in the late afternoon slate. We're taking them all. Lions, Seahawks, and Rams. So it's four bigger favorites, two shorter ones. The Rams and Bears are a bit shorter. It's plus 5.03. And we're all wrapped up before Sunday Night Football. And we'll talk about why we're skipping Sunday Night Football in just a second. But it's about 5-1. And most of those games, they all but one, I think, come back up again in our podcast. So the thing we just talked about is kind of relevant here. I only actually betting I think one of those teams on the spread in our picks to come but I betting four of them in other different ways just like we just talked about including a team total and some of those other designs So Sunday pick six Colts Bills Bears Lions Seahawks Rams about five to one. All favorites, let's cash.”

The Pick 6 parlay busted on the Bills leg: Miami beat Buffalo 30-13 outright, with the Bills closing as roughly 9.5-point favorites — a total blowout loss regardless of the other legs. (Dolphins 30, Bills 13 (Bills leg lost outright as the favorite))

“I really like the Steelers here. Pittsburgh plus three for [13:25] me and we'll play the money line.”

LAC 25, PIT 10 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -15 vs line +3; busts.

“Chargers to miss the playoffs, plus 225. This is a rough spot.”

The Chargers made the 2025 playoffs (finished 11-6, AFC wild card), so the bet on them to miss the playoffs loses.

“I'm going to take a Bills second half play, minus three and a half.”

MIA 30, BUF 13 — Buffalo Bills margin -17 vs line -3.5; busts.

“Don't forget about James Cook. And James Cook is who you want for props here. Miami run defense in losses this season averages 19 carries, 109 yards to the top running back on the opponent. Henry just had 119 against them. Vidal, who you mentioned, 124. Rico Dowdle, 206. They've allowed at least 18 carries to the lead running back in all but one of their losses. 136 scrimmage yards per game. And that includes James Cook earlier this season, 19 carries, 108, and a score. So a couple of ways to play over 17 and a half rushing attempts minus 116 Again that sort of acting like hopefully a Bill money line proxy He hit that in five straight Bill wins 19 carries or more for Cook They just feed him. And he also, in those five wins, has at least 100 yards. He's averaging 137 in those games. So 100 yards for Cook is plus 155. 120 yards is plus 320. So I'll play a little bit on those as well. Keep an eye out. Cook did show up on the injury report this week. So obviously,”

MIA 30, BUF 13 — James Cook had 13 rushing attempts (53 yards) in the Bills' 30-13 loss to the Dolphins, under 17.5.

“Manungay, 50 yards, plus 180, and then just a touch on 100 yards at 15 to 1.”

CHI 24, NYG 20 — Kyle Monangai: 28 rushing_yards vs over 50; busts. (Kyle Monangai: 28 rushing_yards)

“Not usually Puka's thing, but if he gets even one deep pass, we might get a chunk play in there and get some extra yards that way too. So I wanted eight, nine, 10 receptions. That's where I started, but I don't see the value there. I'm going to play yards instead. 100 yards is plus 116 at DraftKings.”

SF 26, LAR 42 — Puka Nacua: 64 receiving_yards vs over 100; busts. (Puka Nacua: 64 receiving_yards)

“pain durham for a touchdown at 10 to 1”

Payne Durham did not score in the Bucs' 28-23 loss to the Patriots.

“Texans Jaguars under [1:37:06] 39.5 at DraftKings [1:37:08] just minus 110”

HOU 36, JAX 29 — Combined 65; under 39.5 busts.

“I'm going to play the Lions, but I'm going to play just the first half, [11:51] minus five and a half on the first half ATS line.”

DET 24, MIN 27 — Detroit Lions first-half margin 0 (7-7 at halftime) vs line -5.5; busts.

“You know that Jefferson in his career has 1,200 yards against the Lions. His next highest opponent is 729, the Bears. So he has almost 500 yards more against Detroit, 121 yards per game in his career, 10 games, six of the 10, over half, at least 124 yards. So I know we've done this. I know Jefferson's been better with Carson Wentz. So I'm going to skip the standard over, 72 and a half. He's hit that six in a row. I'm going to skip that and just see if he can hit some on high end stuff. 100 yards plus 240”

DET 24, MIN 27 — Justin Jefferson: 47 receiving_yards vs over 100; busts. (Justin Jefferson: 47 receiving_yards)

“Rams to shut the Saints out. Not a great bet usually because we don't get too many shutouts a season. It's 15 to one at DraftKings.”

Rams beat Saints 34-10; New Orleans scored 10 points so the shutout did not hit.

“under 45 and a half so i do have jaguars in the pick six”

LV 29, JAX 30 — Combined 59; under 45.5 busts.

“Chiefs to win from behind, plus 215 at DraftKings.”

Bills beat Chiefs 28-21; Kansas City lost so 'Chiefs to win' busts.

“we can play that neither team to win by seven points or more, plus 107. Here's how you play it. It's very easy. Same game parlay. Chiefs plus six and a half. Bills plus six and a half. Smash them together. Neither team wins by seven. Plus odds on it has hit five of the last six matchups here.”

Bills won by exactly 7 (28-21), so a team did win by 7+ and 'neither to win by 7+' lost.

“his over six of eight. It's not been consistent, so I don't mind it. I like Allen. Kansas City has allowed the most rushing attempts to quarterbacks, 6.3 a game. They've allowed at least six attempts to a quarterback five times already. They'll at least 27 yards five times, three short touchdowns. We know that that is Josh Allen. Okay, so what do we bet? Yards, attempts, touchdowns? It's me. We're betting all three. So over 35 and a half rushing yards.”

BUF 28, KC 21 — Josh Allen: 19 rushing_yards vs over 35.5; busts. (Josh Allen: 19 rushing_yards)

“10 rushing attempts so two extras plus 375 Nine Chiefs games he hit 10 rushing attempts in seven of the nine”

Josh Allen had only 6 rushing attempts vs the Chiefs, under the 9.5 (10+) line.

“Give me Kamani Vidal. It's even [53:27] odds.”

Kimani Vidal had 12 carries for 30 yards and no touchdown vs the Titans.

“We, of course, bet the wrong tight end in that game, if I recall, but we're getting the right one this time. Tyler Warren, the rookie, at least 38 yards every game. He's had at least four catches in 53 yards, six of the eight games. 53 yards is perfect. We need over 52 and a half. So give me that usual Tyler Warren outcome to well below the Pittsburgh average. So we'll take that one.”

PIT 27, IND 20 — Tyler Warren: 26 receiving_yards vs over 52.5; busts. (Tyler Warren: 26 receiving_yards)

“We, of course, bet the wrong tight end in that game, if I recall, but we're getting the right one this time. Tyler Warren, the rookie, at least 38 yards every game. He's had at least four catches in 53 yards, six of the eight games. 53 yards is perfect. We need over 52 and a half. So give me that usual Tyler Warren outcome to well below the Pittsburgh average. So we'll take that one. touchdown is plus 145 Warren scored for the last five games he runs sometimes too they put him under center for the sneak so we might steal one that way I will say be careful Jalen Warren is on the wrong side in this one we want Tyler Warren the tight end for the Colts”

Tyler Warren had receptions but no TD in the Colts' 27-20 loss at Pittsburgh.

“Here's the two I'm playing. Giants minus four and a half. It's plus 230.”

NYG 24, SF 34 — New York Giants margin -10 vs line -4.5; busts.

“Here's the two I'm playing. Giants minus four and a half. It's plus 230. It's a weird number. Why four and a half? Well, five and a half and six and a half are like almost the same price, but five and six are kind of a little bit key numbers. So sure, let's take the easier way out this time. And then minus nine and a half. So double digit win plus 450.”

NYG 24, SF 34 — New York Giants margin -10 vs line -9.5; busts.

• Ravens ML
• Rams ML
• Jaguars ML
• Lions ML
• Seahawks ML
• Cowboys ML

“So those six teams, Ravens, Rams, Jaguars, Lions, Seahawks, Cowboys, plus 568.”

The Pick Six parlay busted on the Cowboys leg: Dallas lost outright 27-17 to the Cardinals (MNF), sinking the six-team slip regardless of the other legs. (Cardinals 27, Cowboys 17 (Cowboys leg lost outright))

“I am going to play just a little bit on the nine to one Titans money line because”

IND 38, TEN 14 — Tennessee Titans lost; moneyline busts.

“Jackson passing touchdowns. So far, he's only played four games, but he has 10 passing touchdowns. That's pretty good so far. If you pace that out for the whole season, even with his missed games, he's on pace for 38 touchdowns. Our leader, Matt Stafford, has played all season. He's on pace for 41 So Lamar is so good passing touchdowns so far that even with his missed time he still on pace to only be three off the lead at the end of the season And both of these guys we kind of get a sneaky bit of value with the early buy because it looks like they further down the stat chart than they actually are Lamar has had an outlier touchdown rate twice already before, including last year. So that's where he's at now. I think he can do it again. if you want to do the stair step again 30 touchdowns passing is plus 105 35 is plus 420 i prefer to go for the kill on this one because we know lamar could get hurt again or maybe just not even be healthy now i don't necessarily want the median outcomes if he's going to be good if he's going to play like mvp ball i don't know if he can win mvp with five losses already but he could get a lot of stats like joe burrow last year 30 to 1 at draft kings to lead the league the passing touchdowns”

Matthew Stafford led the NFL with 46 passing TDs in 2025; Lamar Jackson did not lead the league.

“So over 39 and a half rushing yards, so 40 yards or more. That's the bet for Tyler Algier.”

ATL 10, MIA 34 — Tyler Allgeier: 4 rushing_yards vs over 39.5; busts. (Tyler Allgeier: 4 rushing_yards)

“Texans 20 point winner better, minus 19 and a half, 12 to one.”

HOU 26, SF 15 — Houston Texans margin +11 vs line -19.5; busts.

“so Darnell Washington touchdown plus 375”

Darnell Washington did not score in the Steelers' 35-25 Week 8 loss to the Packers (Pittsburgh scored no rushing/receiving TDs by Washington).

“So Noah Fant, plus 325 for a touchdown.”

Noah Fant caught 3 passes for 41 yards but no TD in the Bengals' 39-38 Week 8 loss to the Jets.

“This is probably the most fun thing you could talk about right now, because it feels like he's going to this guy you're talking about now is going to score a touchdown. And everyone's going to be like, oh, yeah, he's a tight end. Who do you like in the Saints game? It's got to be Taysom Hill. Taysom Hill against the Saints. Sorry, Taysom Hill for the Saints. I think I put that one in the spreadsheet backward. Taysom Hill, whoever he's playing for, he's playing for our producer David Payne from BYU. Loves Taysom Hill. Let's get him in the end zone here. I really wanted Tampa Bay here. But man, the injuries on this game is just everywhere. Everywhere on Tampa Bay is injured. Too much to mess with. But I think the tight end touchdown works. Bucs have allowed tied for fourth most tight end touchdowns. We've played them because they're bad against short and over the middle. That's tight end area. Taysom's never had a rushing touchdown against the Bucs, despite all the games every year. But he does catch them against them. Two of the last three games, he's caught a touchdown. And look, most tight ends, we don't get two ways to score a touchdown. Taysom Hill is the cheat code. In fact, we get three ways, except not really. He could throw one in, but we don't get credit for that one. And we need you to not throw Taysom. Run or catch. That's all you get to do. He has scored a touchdown in nine of his last 21 games That 43 That would imply plus 133 We getting plus 250 on a touchdown It not a huge number but that about 2x the payout”

Taysom Hill did not score; the Saints managed only a field goal in their 23-3 Week 8 loss to the Buccaneers.

“I'm gonna play the Panthers money line plus 320”

CAR 9, BUF 40 — Carolina Panthers lost; moneyline busts.

“And I'm still backing what I played on our last podcast. It's Amon Ross St. Brown escalator season. I'm taking this all the way up. Bucs opponent wide receiver ones have at least nine targets every game this season. They've allowed eight, eight and 10 reception games. Last two games, why do you see everyone has had 132 and 142 yards. Amon's had seven catches or more, all but one game, seven, seven, eight, nine and nine reception. So I want receptions over six and a half.”

DET 24, TB 9 — Amon-Ra St. Brown: 6 receptions vs over 6.5; busts. (Amon-Ra St. Brown: 6 receptions)

“Give me the Steelers, plus three and a half, home against the Packers.”

PIT 25, GB 35 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -10 vs line +3.5; busts.

“more than double i think any other coach in our database so steelers on the money line plus 155”

PIT 25, GB 35 — Pittsburgh Steelers lost; moneyline busts.

“so I'm giving myself an extra point I get one point at the end of the article just a chance to give out a future talk about something on my mind this week's extra point was Seattle safety Nick Imanwari for to be defensive rookie of the year at 60 to 1”

Nick Emmanwori finished a distant second in 2025 Defensive Rookie of the Year voting; he did not win.

“So I'll take Vikings plus two and a half.”

MIN 22, PHI 28 — Minnesota Vikings margin -6 vs line +2.5; busts.

“I like the Lions so from the folks that brought you the Puka mega escalator it's the Amon Ra mega escalator and I want receptions here more than anything but we got a bunch of steps along the way here's where we're going so we talked about the Bucs allowing almost 11 targets a game wide receiver one. Amin Ra 86 catch rate this season That a career high for him If he gets nine targets which every wide receiver one has against Tampa that already a floor of eight catches He had this season seven seven eight nine, and nine in five of the six games. So start the escalator with the over on receptions. It's six and a half. Give me the over.”

DET 24, TB 9 — Amon-Ra St. Brown: 6 receptions vs over 6.5; busts. (Amon-Ra St. Brown: 6 receptions)

“and then another similar angle we played a couple weeks ago bill's team total right now is 27 and a half plus 100 on that one 30 points and bill's wins 15 of their last 17 wins since the start of last season so if you think buffalo wins the game they should get the 30 as well we get under the hook right 28 we like to stay under the 28 and even odds there i'm not going to do any escalators or anything just bill's second half and bill's team total”

ATL 24, BUF 14 — Buffalo team total 14 vs line 27.5; unders.

“So give me some Travis Etienne props I going to take the over on his rushing yards over 60 and a half”

JAX 31, KC 28 — Travis Etienne Jr.: 49 rushing_yards vs over 60.5; busts. (Travis Etienne Jr.: 49 rushing_yards)

“Second hot read, another four and a half point favorite. Even though I slandered this team earlier, I compared them to your version of the team they're now playing. Give me the Chargers, minus four and a half at the Dolphins Miami offensively it was very worrying to me today”

MIA 27, LAC 29 — Los Angeles Chargers margin +2 vs line -4.5; busts.

“At DraftKings right now, we can get an under 36 and a half. [8:53] So grab that if you can.”

CLE 17, MIN 21 — Combined 38; under 36.5 busts.

“30 and a half plus 190 we going under 27 and a half plus 290”

CLE 17, MIN 21 — Combined 38; under 30.5 busts.

“we going under 27 and a half plus 290”

CLE 17, MIN 21 — Combined 38; under 27.5 busts.

“Yeah, this is my favorite side of the week. [15:10] I'm going with the Seahawks. [15:11] Minus three if you can.”

SEA 35, TB 38 — Seattle Seahawks margin -3 vs line -3; busts.

“but also play a Seattle minus nine and a half, plus 215.”

SEA 35, TB 38 — Seattle Seahawks margin -3 vs line -9.5; busts.

• Cardinals -1.5 closed -7.5 · CLV +6 lost
• Colts -1 closed -7 · CLV +6 won

“All right, let's keep rolling here. So you've got a teaser. We're kind of headed to teaser land, as I like to call it. Tennessee, Arizona, and Raiders and Colts. What are you doing? Yeah, so I'm going to go Cardinals and Colts. Give me the favorites here. That's 7.5 for the Cardinals, teased down to 1.5, and Colts at 7, teased down to 1. Just kind of looking for a classic Stanford Wong teaser here.”

Parlay busts: Cardinals -1.5 -1.5 — lost; Colts -1 -1 — won.

“So yeah, under 40 and [29:44] a half if you need it because Houston's 4-0 to even that under right now.”

BAL 10, HOU 44 — Combined 54; under 40.5 busts.

“Under 37.5, I skipped over that one. [30:26] That's our last key number, so plus 145.”

BAL 10, HOU 44 — Combined 54; under 37.5 busts.

“line low enough. So we got to go back to the mine shaft here as well. Lamar Jackson, since becoming a starter, there's 13 games where he did not play for injury or other reasons. Baltimore has gone under 40.5, 10 of those 13. So that's our under. But in eight of the 13, 62%, they've gone 33.5 or below. So that's at plus 235.”

BAL 10, HOU 44 — Combined 54; under 33.5 busts.

“And then 30.5 or below, so 30 points or less. [30:17] They've gone under that in the non-Lamar games over half of the time, 54%. [30:21] We get plus 350 on that one.”

BAL 10, HOU 44 — Combined 54; under 30.5 busts.

“Yeah, I'm going to take the under here, under 49 and a half.”

CIN 24, DET 37 — Combined 61; under 49.5 busts.

“we get him at plus 700 because he's a name we don't really know too much about yet. So, Brees Hall receiving yards, Isaiah Davis on the touchdown”

Isaiah Davis scored no TD (1 carry, 5 yards; 3 catches, 28 yards) in the Jets' 37-22 Week 5 loss to Dallas.

• Cowboys -2.5 closed +1.5 · CLV -4
• Breece Hall over 20.5 receiving yards closed +26.5 · CLV +6
• Isaiah Davis anytime touchdown

“if you do want the parlay, here's our DraftKings sponsored parlay for the week. Let's throw it all together. Give me the Brees receiving yards and the Isaiah Davis touchdown, but for some negative correlation, let's still take that Dallas minus two and a half to get the win and cover. Let's trust all those trends. We get all three of those together. Cowboys cover, Hall over on the receiving yards davis touchdown at plus 1800 at draft kings i like it my only question for you is do you see they sign khalil herbert i feel like he won get much work this week and they going to go back to Brees and Davis So I feel like for at least a week or so while Braylon on IR this feels like the battering ram they're going to go with in terms of those two guys. So let's recap the parlay here. It's Dallas minus 2.5. It's Brees Hall over 20.5 receiving yards, and it's Isaiah Davis to find the end zone, 18-1 SGP,”

SGP busts: Cowboys covered -2.5 easily (won 37-22) and Breece Hall cleared 20.5 receiving yards (4 rec, 42 yds), but Isaiah Davis did not score a touchdown — the Jets' only TDs went to Andrew Beck and Garrett Wilson — so the parlay loses. (Cowboys 37, Jets 22; Hall 4 rec/42 yds; Davis: no TD)

“Give me the Eagles. [58:28] Minus six and a half at the Giants.”

NYG 34, PHI 17 — Philadelphia Eagles margin -17 vs line -6.5; busts.

“Does that mean anything? absolutely not but there's your trend if you want to bet them here's my bet i'm gonna take the under under 45 and a half at draft kings prime time unders not counting thursday games since 2019”

MIA 27, NYJ 21 — Combined 48; under 45.5 busts.

“The reason, but I'll say this, the reason I like it, and this is the bet I think that's more actionable and better, is I like Garrett Wilson. He's minus 110, and I like Brees Hall plus 225 to get a catch on the first Jets drive. Garrett Wilson this year, 10 targets in the first quarter, which is top eight or so in the NFL. And Brees went two for two on target receptions versus Tampa Bay last week. So I feel like the Jets might come out a little aggressive, a little different, especially with field starting. I think those guys get in reset. I think the way I would do it is like half unit on Garrett, quarter unit on Brees, and you end up cashing with either. Something of that nature would be the way I would play it.”

On the Jets' first offensive drive (which ended in a Braelon Allen fumble at the Miami 1-yard line), Breece Hall caught a pass but Garrett Wilson was not targeted/did not catch a pass — leg lost. (Jets' first drive: B.Hall 5-yd catch; no Wilson target/catch; drive ended on fumble at MIA 1.)

“All right, so Cincinnati and Denver is the second Monday Night Football game. Right now that line is 7.5 for Denver, 44.5. I said it earlier, but Denver is 0-3 against the spread, the last undefeated or winless ATS team so far this season. I feel like the stat you almost have to continue to say when it comes to Zach Taylor. 45 32 and one straight up with burrow eight and 23 when he doesn't have burrow under center uh obviously seven and a half points a lot different than the uh than the straight up line here but what are your thoughts on this matchup because i only have like one or two vets yeah i just think seven and a half is is too much respect for a denver that that that's going off of last year's denver respect and i don't know that they have earned that this year so i'm going to take the Bengals just in a by-low spot.”

DEN 28, CIN 3 — Cincinnati Bengals margin -25 vs line +7.5; busts.

“we're going with two unders and they're pretty ugly unders so let's start with my vikings and [1:20:33] the browns just a heads up you probably sleep in next sunday under 37 and a half at draft kings”

CLE 17, MIN 21 — Combined 38; under 37.5 busts.

“we're back again vikings minus two and a half against the steelers”

PIT 24, MIN 21 — Minnesota Vikings margin -3 vs line -2.5; busts.

“So we played Packers on the hot read. We got minus five. [30:47] Hopefully you tailed that and minus five and a half. [30:49] If not, I still like that a lot.”

DAL 40, GB 40 — Green Bay Packers margin +0 vs line -5.5; busts.

“rookie of the year, Omerian Hampton 9-1 I think is a good investment right now. In my 3-0 article this week, this was my top futures angle”

Tetairoa McMillan won 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at NFL Honors; Omarion Hampton did not win.

• Jalen Hurts 30+ passing attempts pending
• Jalen Hurts interception pending
• Buccaneers +3.5 closed +3.5 · CLV 0 lost

“Same game parlay at DraftKings. Jalen Hurts, [44:46] 30 passing attempts, plus an interception for Hurts, and the Bucs cover the three and a half, [44:52] plus 465”

Parlay busts: Jalen Hurts 30+ passing attempts +29.5 — manual; Jalen Hurts interception — manual; Buccaneers +3.5 +3.5 — lost.

• Derrick Henry 100+ rushing yards lost
• Derrick Henry anytime TD pending
• Ravens ML closed -148 · CLV 0¢ lost

“So Henry, 100 yards rushing and a touchdown. That's the bet at DraftKings. Sorry, Henry, 100 yards and a touchdown plus Ravens' money line because that's all part of the script. Ravens win Henry gets 100 yards and finds the end zone that is hit in 9 of 13 wins that Henry's had with the Ravens 9 of 18 games he's played so half of them it's plus 340 at DraftKings”

Parlay busts: Derrick Henry 100+ rushing yards +99.5 — lost; Derrick Henry anytime TD — manual; Ravens ML — lost.

“chargers minus two and a half at draft kings against the commanders”

LAC 10, WSH 27 — Los Angeles Chargers margin -17 vs line -2.5; busts.

“I think they'll wait up at the Ravens if you like them. Old faithful, Lamar first half. We know the stat, 60-34-2, 64% ATS in the first half for his career, 2-0 ATS this year. And first half number is minus 2.5.”

BAL 14, DET 14 (halftime) — Tied 14-14 at halftime; Ravens margin 0 vs line -2.5; busts.

“A lot of trends like the under here. [1:06:36] That's the hater bet, I suppose. [1:06:39] This total has been bet up. [1:06:40] It was 50.5. [1:06:41] It's now like 53.5.”

BAL 30, DET 38 — Combined 68; under 53.5 busts.

“70 yards hits the over for zay flowers just the traditional”

BAL 30, DET 38 — Zay Flowers: 13 receiving_yards vs over 70; busts. (Zay Flowers: 13 receiving_yards)

“the packers minus five if you can find it i grabbed it earlier i still see a minus five and a half at”

DAL 40, GB 40 — Green Bay Packers margin +0 vs line -5.5; busts.

“let's go right to the other one chargers minus five and a half at the giants”

NYG 21, LAC 18 — Los Angeles Chargers margin -3 vs line -5.5; busts.

“Jets plus seven and a little nibble on the money line since 2018. Oh, and two road dogs, 11 and 15 straight up. That's pretty good for oh, and two road underdogs. 46% ROI. If you look at dogs of five or more points in that span, seven and nine, almost five hundred, 80 percent ROI. Remember, four upsets of a touchdown or more the last two years. Could this be another one? Jets plus 280 on the money line as part of your bet as well.”

TB 29, NYJ 27 — New York Jets lost; moneyline busts.

“Give me the Texans plus two.”

JAX 17, HOU 10 — Houston Texans margin -7 vs line +2; busts.

“I think that's around the same. I think the escalator here is still giving Texans a chance in the division. Plus 300 at FanDuel. I still like them in the division.”

Jacksonville won the AFC South at 13-4; Houston finished second (12-5), so the Texans division future lost.

“I'm the Wentz guy. There's no way I'm not playing this. Carson loves to call his own number at the goal line. That has been the staple time and again at NDSU. We've seen it in the NFL. He loves the QB draw. Five to one. Anytime touchdown at DraftKings.”

Carson Wentz threw TDs to Oliver and Hockenson but did not score himself in the Vikings' 48-10 Week 3 win over Cincinnati.

“So give me the Baker interception, because Jill would love this. We're getting plus odds on Baker Mayfield to throw a pick, plus 105.”

Baker Mayfield threw no interceptions (19/29, 1 TD) in Tampa Bay's 29-27 Week 3 win over the Jets.

“We're playing Roma Dunes, a over four and a half receptions. [45:27] It's minus one, 22 at FanDuel.”

CHI 31, DAL 14 — Rome Odunze: 3 receptions vs over 4.5; busts. (Rome Odunze: 3 receptions)

“So give me the 20-plus rushing attempts at plus 125 at bat 365”

PHI 33, LAR 26 — Saquon Barkley: 18 rushing_attempts vs over 19.5; busts. (Saquon Barkley: 18 rushing_attempts)

“So I going to go Raiders plus three and a half here”

LV 9, LAC 20 — Las Vegas Raiders margin -11 vs line +3.5; busts.

“Raiders plus six and a half at the Commanders.”

WSH 41, LV 24 — Las Vegas Raiders margin -17 vs line +6.5; busts.

• Chiefs ML closed -325 · CLV +20¢ won
• Ravens ML closed -245 · CLV +20¢ lost

“primetime parlay [1:13:31] chiefs ravens minus 106 at draft kings”

Parlay busts: Chiefs ML — won; Ravens ML — lost.

“Give me the Bears plus six and a half at the lines.”

DET 52, CHI 21 — Chicago Bears margin -31 vs line +6.5; busts.

“give me the Bears money [13:36] line plus 230.”

DET 52, CHI 21 — Chicago Bears lost; moneyline busts.

“The injuries have pushed the line towards Atlanta here This one I tell you right now Vikings minus 3 I would wait if you can I think there a good chance we get to a minus three here We not get past that but I would wait for the three if you can get it And if not I happy with the three and a half, or that will be the official pick for the pod.”

MIN 6, ATL 22 — Minnesota Vikings margin -16 vs line -3.5; busts.

“You like James Conner this week. I love James Conner this week. This honestly might be my favorite bet of the podcast. James Conner, we're taking the over rushing yards over 60 and a half at Caesars.”

ARI 27, CAR 22 — James Conner: 34 rushing_yards vs over 60.5; busts. (James Conner: 34 rushing_yards)

“Give me James Conner. So over 16 and a half yards. That's the proxy for the cards win. Now here's the escalator. 100 yards or more. He's had 98 yards or more in seven of those 11 wins. Over half of them, we're getting five to one at bat 365 on 100 yards. Sign me up for that one.”

ARI 27, CAR 22 — James Conner: 34 rushing_yards vs over 100; busts. (James Conner: 34 rushing_yards)

“Give me Brees Hall, longest run, over 14 and a half yards at DraftKings.”

Hall carried 10 times for 29 yards with a long run of 12 in Buffalo's 30-10 win over NY; his longest run (12) fell short of the 14.5 line. (Breece Hall: 10 car, 29 yds, long 12)

“Hunter Henry over 31 and a half receiving yards”

MIA 27, NE 33 — Hunter Henry: 9 receiving_yards vs over 31.5; busts. (Hunter Henry: 9 receiving_yards)

“over three and a half receptions. Again, he's hit that eight of 10 games with Drake May.”

MIA 27, NE 33 — Hunter Henry: 1 receptions vs over 3.5; busts. (Hunter Henry: 1 receptions)

“And I think Tootin, the rookie, might actually start kind of sneaking up an ATM. So I kind of pivoted here, thought I was running, got back to the tight ends. So Brenton Strange over 31.5”

CIN 31, JAX 27 — Brenton Strange: 17 receiving_yards vs over 31.5; busts. (Brenton Strange: 17 receiving_yards)

“Tip Ryman, Cardinals tight end, anytime touchdown, 11-1 at bat 365.”

Tip Reiman did not score in the Cardinals' 27-22 win over Carolina.

“ravens division odds minus 135 at fan duel”

Pittsburgh won the 2025 AFC North at 10-7; the Ravens finished 8-9, so the Ravens-to-win-division ticket lost.

“and ravens most wins nine to one at draft kings”

The Ravens finished 8-9, nowhere near the league wins lead (Seahawks/Patriots/Broncos tied at 14-3), so Ravens most regular-season wins lost.

“So give me the Bears, plus one and a half.”

CHI 24, MIN 27 — Chicago Bears margin -3 vs line +1.5; busts.

“Bears minus 6.5 plus 250 on the outline.”

CHI 24, MIN 27 — Chicago Bears margin -3 vs line -6.5; busts.

“So first one, Seahawks at the Steelers. I teased both of these teams. Under 41 and a half. Grab that one at DraftKings.”

PIT 17, SEA 31 — Combined 48; under 41.5 busts.

“under 41 and a half at DraftKings. And then real quick, the other one, Broncos at Colts under 43 and a half. You should find that at pretty much any book you need it.”

IND 29, DEN 28 — Combined 57; under 43.5 busts.

“How could it be anything but the New York football giants? Plus six and a half at the Commanders.”

WSH 21, NYG 6 — New York Giants margin -15 vs line +6.5; busts.

“first half and get out of there so texans first half plus two and a half probably i'll end up doing like a money line plus 125 if you want to do the halftime full-time money line i do like texans to win here i think it's kind of a lucky spot getting this rams team with stafford no preseason but first half play plus two and a half is the play”

LAR 14, HOU 9 — Houston Texans margin -5 vs line +2.5; busts.

“I mean after the afternoon slate we have we sit back and have like 15 minutes to get in bets for ravens bills so what is your uh best bet for that game i gonna play the ravens i gonna play the first half money line so it's minus 105 at espn”

BUF 41, BAL 40 — Baltimore Ravens lost; moneyline busts.

“so steelers jets under 38 and a half maybe i'll do the mineshaft”

NYJ 32, PIT 34 — Combined 66; under 38.5 busts.

“want yards i want receptions i want the whole thing with david and joku over 48 and a half receiving yards that's the bottom rung and then we'll go 70 yards or more plus 250 at bat 365 and then i'm kind of switching volume to receptions Get some short passes in here. Eight catches plus 525, 10 catches, 15 to one at bat 365. Top of the ladder. Remember, he did that against the Bengals last year. So keep an eye on, again, Action Pro. Watch in the app if you're wondering about unit sizing on all these escalators. But Njoku from 48 and a half yards to 70 and 8 and 10 catches all the way up.”

CLE 16, CIN 17 — David Njoku: 37 receiving_yards vs over 48.5; busts. (David Njoku: 37 receiving_yards)

“So if they actually come out running, I think Walker should look good. He had a touchdown both games against the Niners last year So give me over 59 and a half rushing yards and then a little slight escalator 59 and a half plus a touchdown at plus 323 at FanDuel”

SEA 13, SF 17 — Kenneth Walker III: 20 rushing_yards vs over 59.5; busts. (Kenneth Walker III: 20 rushing_yards)

“Give me the Titans money line plus 350.”

DEN 20, TEN 12 — Tennessee Titans lost; moneyline busts.

“behind so alternate plays on miami minus six and a half plus 240 at bed mgm minus 13 and a half plus”

IND 33, MIA 8 — Miami Dolphins margin -25 vs line -6.5; busts.

“but just give me for a future's best bet, zero wins after five weeks. That's a fast future at DraftKings, plus 340.”

The Saints went 1-4 through five weeks (won their opener vs the Giants), so they had a win after five weeks.

“Giants, NFC seed under 14 and a half. Now, let me help you out here. Under 14 and a half means better than the 15 seed or the 16 seed. I'm betting on the Giants. It's plus 120 at ESPN.”

The Giants finished 4-13, last in the NFC East and 15th in the NFC, worse than the 14.5 seed line (over).

“With the Panthers, beat one team. Here's the bet. 2-0 head to head against the Saints. Plus 165. The Saints are terrible. Just beat the Saints two times.”

The Saints swept the season series, beating Carolina 17-7 and 20-17, so the Panthers did not go 2-0.

“my best bet on the Cowboys I'm leaning all the way in their fifth worst in my power ranks zero wins in September plus 750 at ESPN”

The Cowboys won at least one September game (40-37 OT over the Giants), so they were not winless in September.

“Yeah so I keep Jets real quick We did this one on our Exotics podcast Jets touchdown leader Braylon Allen 14 at bet 365 Goal line carries I think they going to go to Braylon Allen Brees Hall has never had more than five rushing touchdowns. And Fields, this is not his game. He's the guy that's going to get outside the numbers and beat you with speed around the edge, but not really like the tush-push touchdowns guy. With the Jets offense, five or six touchdowns might be enough. So 14-1 there.”

Breece Hall led the Jets in touchdowns (5); Braelon Allen missed 13 games with an MCL injury and was not the team leader.

• Titans over 5.5 wins
• Patriots over 7.5 wins

“Titans over 5.5, Patriots over 7.5. That's where you're going to find it's a plus 190 bet.”

Titans finished 3-14, well under the 5.5 win total (leg lost) despite Patriots covering their 7.5 total at 14-3 (leg won). One losing leg sinks the parlay. (Titans 3-14 (miss, needed 6+ wins); Patriots 14-3 (hit, over 7.5))

“My best bet here is Travis Hunter, Offensive Rookie of the Year. Offensive, not defensive, 12-1.”

Tetairoa McMillan won 2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year; Travis Hunter did not win it.

“we're gonna get the rest of the way there now i'm gonna go exact outcome one two in the afc west Chiefs in first Raiders in second is 14 to one at DraftKings”

The AFC West finished Broncos 1st, Chargers 2nd, Chiefs 3rd (6-11), not Chiefs first and Raiders second.

“i do love this prop we're taking the escalator on lad mcconkey receiving yards so i asked here as a rookie 82 catches 1149 yards last seven games even better once they got going with herbert we know they pass more down the stretch. He had at least 83 yards, all but one of those last seven games, paced just under 1,600 yards Do you know that ESPN bet his over on the season is 950 and a half yards Under 1,000 for Ladd McConkie second round fantasy pick Ladd McConkie Future fantasy star Ladd McConkie So we taking the over and 1,250 yards is plus 250 I think even that is too low. We'll take 1,500 yards at plus 700.”

Ladd McConkey finished with 789 receiving yards; over 1,250 lost.

“Four wins in September at ESPN Bet. It's eight to one odds.”

The Patriots went 2-2 in September 2025, not 4-0.

“Give me Houston in the division. AFC South winners plus odds. What are we doing? Plus 115 at FanDuel. I'm going multi-units on that.”

The Jaguars (13-4) won the AFC South; the Texans finished 12-5 in second place.

• Chiefs win AFC West
• Texans win AFC South
• Eagles win NFC East

“chiefs texans eagles division winner parlay plus 633 at FanDuel”

Same division-winner parlay as the 09-01 episode: Chiefs missed the playoffs entirely (6-11, Broncos won AFC West) and Texans were a wild card, not AFC South champs (Jaguars 13-4 won it). Only the Eagles (NFC East) leg hit. (Chiefs 6-11 missed playoffs, Broncos 14-3 won AFC West (miss); Texans 12-5 wild card, Jaguars 13-4 won AFC South (miss); Eagles won NFC East (hit))

“but I'm going to take Niners' most wins in the NFL, 13-1 at DraftKings.”

The 49ers finished 12-5; Seattle led the NFL with 14 regular-season wins.

• Texans win AFC South
• Eagles win NFC East
• Chiefs win AFC West

“So I'm going to parlay all three together. Texans, Eagles, Chiefs, give me the division parlay at FanDuel plus 633.”

Eagles won the NFC East, but Texans did NOT win the AFC South (Jaguars did, 13-4, with Houston as a wild card at 12-5) and Chiefs did NOT win the AFC West (Broncos did, 14-3; Chiefs missed the playoffs entirely at 6-11). Two of three legs lost. (Eagles won NFC East (hit); Texans 12-5 wild card, Jaguars 13-4 won AFC South (miss); Chiefs 6-11 missed playoffs, Broncos 14-3 won AFC West (miss))

“So I like the Texans, 6-0 in the division, 13-1.”

The Texans went 4-2 in the AFC South, not 6-0 (the Jaguars went 4-0 in division play).

“So I've been trying to figure out how do I bet the Raiders to improve, but not that much. And I think it's this, second place in the division, plus 750 at DraftKings.”

The Raiders finished 4th (3-14) in the AFC West, not 2nd; the Chargers were 2nd.

“Jets, similar, but I like this one a little better. I think this is a run-heavy team. gave me the goal line back on a run-heavy offense, Braylon Allen, 14-1. I think he's the touchdown guy, not Brees Hall”

Braelon Allen missed the final 13 games with an MCL injury; Breece Hall led the Jets in TDs.

“And then if we're going to stick with the bottom teams, how about a Lions pick? Another shot at Ben Johnson here. This isn't a shot at the Lions offense, but I think David Montgomery is terribly priced here. There's actually an odds boost right now. He's 12 to one. You can get him at 14 to one at bat 365. Montgomery is the touchdown guy.”

Jahmyr Gibbs led the Lions with 18 TDs; David Montgomery had only 8.

“my only yards one here is AJ Brown, receiving yards leader. It's 28 to one at Caesars.”

Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the NFL in receiving yards (1,793) in 2025; A.J. Brown was not the leader.

“have after five games these are all at draft kings and I'm betting three teams all to have zero wins two of them shouldn't surprise you it's the Browns and the Saints right the problem is the numbers here are outrageous. The Browns are plus 340 to be winless after five games.”

The Browns went 1-4 through five games (beat Green Bay 13-10 in Week 4), so they were not winless.

“have after five games these are all at draft kings and I'm betting three teams all to have zero wins two of them shouldn't surprise you it's the Browns and the Saints right the problem is the numbers here are outrageous. The Browns are plus 340 to be winless after five games. Here's who the Browns play. Bengals, Ravens, Packers, Lions, Vikings. You're like more than a touchdown underdog in all those games. You're plus 340 to lose them all? I'm taking that every day. The Saints go Cardinals, Niners, Seahawks, Bills. Then they get to host the Giants in week five. I wish you only had a week four for that one, but it's plus 450. So maybe the Giants are giving me a little extra boost in there.”

The Saints went 1-4 through five games (beat the Giants in the opener), so they were not winless after five.

“teams that really are in the running for this it's Baltimore Kansas City in the AFC it's Philly San Francisco in the NFC and I have San Fran as my number two overall record by like half a win or less to the Ravens so 13 to 1 very easy choice my long shot here is my number five team and that's”

49ers finished 12-5; best record was 14-3 (Seahawks/Patriots/Broncos). (49ers 12-5, NFC West runner-up.)

“and I have San Fran as my number two overall record by like half a win or less to the Ravens so 13 to 1 very easy choice my long shot here is my number five team and that's the Houston Texans, 45 to one, both at DraftKings.”

Texans finished 12-5; best record was 14-3. (Texans 12-5, AFC South runner-up to Jaguars 13-4.)

“other way and I'm just getting creative. It's just a 150 to one long shot on the Washington Commanders as the worst record who definitely don't need a tank because they have a quarterback,”

Commanders finished 5-12; worst record was 3-14. (Washington 5-12, not the league's worst record.)

“750 that gets you out before the Buffalo game so this is a team I'm just very much in on we'll have more about them later but definitely the Patriots 60 to 1 for last unbeaten long shot before we move”

Patriots started 2-2; last undefeated teams were Bills/Eagles (both lost Week 5). (Patriots lost Week 1 and Week 3.)

“So Saints last winless team, plus 850 at ESPN.”

Saints got first win Week 5; Jets were last winless team (first win Week 8). (Saints 1-3 after Week 5 win over Giants.)

“I like Saints as the 16 seed, so worst team in the NFC, plus 225.”

Saints finished 6-11; worst NFC team (16 seed) was Cardinals 3-14. (Saints 6-11.)

“I like Saints as the 16 seed, so worst team in the NFC, plus 225. You can do that for Browns and the AFC, plus 225. Give me both of them.”

Browns finished 5-12; worst AFC team (16 seed) was 3-14 (Jets/Titans/Raiders). (Browns 5-12, not worst in AFC.)

“so i like that one too all right uh because we were kind of toying with the idea about the giants for worst record i thought that this actually would more apply to them for last winless team so i took them at four to one at espn bet so the giants they have the second hardest strength of”

Giants got first win Week 4; Jets were last winless team (first win Week 8). (Giants beat Chargers in Week 4.)

“you could actually win your 50 to one bucks last winless bet.”

Buccaneers won early and finished 8-9; Jets were last winless team (first win Week 8). (Tampa Bay 8-9.)

“Yeah, I'm going to give you both of my picks right here. So the Ravens 8 to 1 at ESPN. Don't need to make the case on the Ravens.”

Rams led NFL in scoring (518 pts); Ravens did not lead points scored. (Rams most points; Ravens finished 8-9.)

“top five points scored it's all double digit win playoff team so points equals wins i like the bears bears island so bears 25 to 1 but responsibly ravens 8 to 1 all right we've shoehorned in”

Rams led NFL in scoring (518 pts); Bears did not lead points scored. (Bears finished 11-6.)

“I'm going chalk here. So the last five years, the quote winner in this category of least points scored, all AFC teams that won two, three, three four and five games so pick the worst team in the afc give me the browns plus 375 caesars”

Raiders scored the fewest points in 2025 (241); Browns were 2nd-fewest at 279, so the Browns least-points future loses. (Browns 279 points; Raiders led with 241)