Guest · 601-873-8 on settled picks
| League | spread | futures | prop | total | moneyline | parlay | other | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 233-192+8% | 74-287+61% | 108-169-6% | 89-81+2% | 48-46+36% | 14-40+3% | 3-6-42% | 569-821+20% |
| NBA | 3-3-5% | 10-33-27% | 11-7+16% | 5-1+59% | — | 0-3 | 1-3 | 30-50-13% |
“special teams, touchdown with the Seattle money line, plus eight 33”
“We are riding with Jared Stidham and the Denver Broncos, [44:16] plus five and a half in the AFC Championship game.”
“Well, at some books, you can add to that Rams-Seahawks-Moneyline-Parlay plus NFC wins the Super Bowl.”
“give me the under 46 and a half at draft kings seahawks and niners”
“So let's grab a Rams-Seattle Moneyline parlay at even odds, plus 100, and call it a wrap.”
“take the escalator five and a half receptions or more is plus 125 I”
“I'm just going to stick with Pittsburgh three and a half and play the trends.”
“give me the saints plus three and a half plus 160 money line”
“give me the saints plus three and a half plus 160 money line”
“I'll take Detroit with the three [57:08] and the plus 140 money line.”
“I'll take the money line plus 140”
“Give me the commanders four and a half.”
“Give me them [1:00:05] at plus 180 on the money line.”
“So I'm playing the Cowboys.”
“Over 33 and a half points for the Cowboys, plus 330.”
“So give me a Bengals team total escalator. Over 26 and a half, [1:07:47] that's the line. It's too low.”
“Patriots, Bengals, Cowboys favored, [1:11:58] Commanders, Lions, Saints as underdogs. [1:12:01] There is your pick six for the week. [1:12:02] Three dogs, three favorites. [1:12:04] It's about 36 to one.”
“Titans over 5.5, Patriots over 7.5. That's where you're going to find it's a plus 190 bet.”
“under nine and a half we're going multi-unit bet that is my favorite over under on the board”
“So we taking the over and 1 yards is plus 250”
“I think you've got to be out on the Bucs with all the injuries early on.”
“chiefs texans eagles division winner parlay plus 633 at FanDuel”
“So I'm going to parlay all three together. Texans, Eagles, Chiefs, give me the division parlay at FanDuel plus 633.”
“So you can bet 4,500 yards plus 190 at Caesars. That's just like stay healthy and you're probably going to hit that.”
“So even an alt under 7.5 plus 320, that's the responsible way for this.”
“we're getting a 23-1 price. [1:01:07] That's the price you get if you just parlay 4-1 and plus 380 without having any correlation.”
“I love the over five and a half. [31:26] It's my favorite win total on the board.”
“Give me Tyree Kill to have at least 200 [59:19] receiving yards in any game this season, plus 275.”
“is plus 650 I bet that one kind of has a more moderate goal for Pierce”
“So Dallas over nine and a half. The juice is pretty high. I don't really need it.”
“I like the ravens over. Our sponsor bet three six five right now has the ravens team total at 8 and a half. Now you're gonna pay the juice. It's minus $1.60. But are you kidding me? 8 and a half?”
“So I like the ravens over. I like the eagles over. I mentioned them as well. Just two very high floor proven teams.”
“I am taking the Knicks here, but I'm going to take them against the spread in the series. [3:42] So give me Knicks plus one and a half, laying a little bit of juice here.”
“This is the one series of everything we got that I'm just taking a team, taking a side. [11:03] Just give me the Lakers. [11:04] Lakers plus 116.”
“My favorite series bet of the first round. [30:11] Give me the Celtics minus two and a half.”
“So this is my favorite under on the board.”
“plus 210 at FanDuel to lead the series in points, rebounds, and assists per game. I think he has a”
“And I just think this is the Bengals moment here I don know how this team is an underdog especially at the key number plus three Gave me the plus three Short road dog 67 against the spread on the season”
“But you better believe I'm betting against Tennessee every chance I get the rest of the way.”
“plus five. The Ravens and Steelers both, I believe, can still make the playoffs, but I think it”
“long shot out of my $100. I got five bucks on Bogdan Bogdanovich leading the scoring in the series at plus 5,000.”
“I'm going to take the Patriots team total under 20 and a half.”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Combined 42; under 20.5 busts.
“Seahawks to score first and win. You can bet that outcome to combine bet at most major books, plus 125.”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Seattle Seahawks won; moneyline covers.
“If it's a side, it's Seattle minus four and a half for me.”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Seattle Seahawks margin +16 vs line -4.5; covers.
“gave me Seattle defense special teams touchdown plus the Seattle money line That at plus 833”
Seahawks defense scored (Uchenna Nwosu 45-yard pick-six) and Seattle won the game outright 29-13, so both parlay legs hit. (Nwosu 45-yd INT return TD; Final: Seahawks 29, Patriots 13)
“gave me the exact same bet with the Patriots. Touchdown defense or special teams, Patriots money line at about 27 to 1. I'm betting that both ways.”
Parlay busts: Patriots defense or special teams touchdown — manual; Patriots ML — lost.
“Start with over six and a half receptions. I think that line is a full reception too low.”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 4 receptions vs over 6.5; busts. (Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 4 receptions)
“And we'll play the escalator at eight catches. Plus 130, he's had eight catches and more, 10 of those 13 non-blowout games.”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 4 receptions vs over 8; busts. (Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 4 receptions)
“JSN 100 receiving yards and MVP. That's the top of the escalator here it's plus 850”
Jaxon Smith-Njigba did not win MVP and had only 27 receiving yards (under 100).
“let's go over 39 and a half yards plus 105 henry has had 39 yards or more 11 of 20 games”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Hunter Henry: 31 receiving_yards vs over 39.5; busts. (Hunter Henry: 31 receiving_yards)
“we'll take the henry escalator 50 yards plus 155”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Hunter Henry: 31 receiving_yards vs over 49.5; busts. (Hunter Henry: 31 receiving_yards)
“catches that's the line over two and a half it's minus 120 he's had three catches seven of the last”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Kenneth Walker III: 2 receptions vs over 2.5; busts. (Kenneth Walker III: 2 receptions)
“So the Walker escalator 30 receiving yards at plus 160”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Kenneth Walker III: 26 receiving_yards vs over 29.5; busts. (Kenneth Walker III: 26 receiving_yards)
“But we're going back again to Rashid Shahid rushing over two and a half rushing yards.”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Rashid Shaheed: 0 rushing_yards vs over 2.5; busts. (Rashid Shaheed: 0 rushing_yards)
“you can bet Shahid for the longest run of the game at 30-1.”
Rashid Shaheed's only carry was -5 yards; Kenneth Walker had the longest runs.
“first bet here seattle first score and win plus 125”
Seattle scored first (Myers 33-yard FG in Q1) and won 29-13.
“you're going JSN MVP, but not just MVP. You're going to have 100 plus”
Parlay busts: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 100 receiving yards +100 — lost; Jaxon Smith-Njigba Super Bowl MVP — manual.
“you have seattle defensive or special team score plus money line plus 833”
Seahawks defense scored (Uchenna Nwosu 45-yard pick-six) and Seattle won the game outright 29-13, so both parlay legs hit. (Nwosu 45-yd INT return TD; Final: Seahawks 29, Patriots 13)
“score plus money line plus 833 and then pats defensive”
Parlay busts: New England defensive or special teams touchdown — manual; New England Patriots moneyline — lost.
“Rashid Shaheed longest rush 30 to 1 you could also win the contest if this happens”
Rashid Shaheed (New England) had no rush of 30+ yards in the game.
“Patriots team total under 20 and a half. That's the first bet I'm going to give out here.”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Combined 42; under 20.5 busts.
“either team, defense or special teams touchdown, plus 265.”
Seahawks' Uchenna Nwosu returned a 45-yard interception for a pick-six (defensive TD) in Super Bowl LX; bet wins at +265. (SEA 29, NE 13 — Nwosu 45-yd pick-six; Seahawks forced 3 turnovers, sacked Maye 6 times.)
“Patriots defense special team touchdown with their money line plus 2700. You have both together.”
Parlay busts: New England Patriots defense or special teams touchdown — manual; New England Patriots ML — lost.
“Defensive MVP you can get just at 15 to one.”
Super Bowl LX MVP was Kenneth Walker III (RB, Seahawks), an offensive player — defensive MVP prop loses. (Walker: 135 rushing yards, 26 receiving yards (161 total); Seahawks won 29-13.)
“for the deadline and we're going to run it back rashid shaheed rushing yards over two and a half”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Rashid Shaheed: 0 rushing_yards vs over 2.5; busts. (Rashid Shaheed: 0 rushing_yards)
“what player will have the longest rush in the game rashid shaheed 30 to 1 if we don't think”
Shaheed rushed once for -5 yards in Super Bowl LX; Kenneth Walker III had the game's longest rush (~30 yards) en route to 135-yard MVP performance. Seahawks won 29-13. (Shaheed: 1 carry, -5 yds. Kenneth Walker III: 27 carries, 135 yds, long of ~30 yds (Super Bowl LX MVP).)
“Over two and a half receptions.”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Kenneth Walker III: 2 receptions vs over 2.5; busts. (Kenneth Walker III: 2 receptions)
“And I'm going to play my escalator on yardage here, 30 yards plus 160.”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Kenneth Walker III: 26 receiving_yards vs over 30; busts. (Kenneth Walker III: 26 receiving_yards)
“So I like over 39 and a half Hunter Henry yards.”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Hunter Henry: 31 receiving_yards vs over 39.5; busts. (Hunter Henry: 31 receiving_yards)
“So over 39 and a half, but 50 yards plus 155.”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Hunter Henry: 31 receiving_yards vs over 50; busts. (Hunter Henry: 31 receiving_yards)
“I got on the hot read at 5.5. [22:01] Like you said, I think it's 4.5 now.”
DEN 7, NE 10 — Denver Broncos margin -3 vs line +5.5; covers.
“We play yards Over 17 receiving yards for R Harvey”
DEN 7, NE 10 — RJ Harvey: 22 receiving_yards vs over 17.5; covers. (RJ Harvey: 22 receiving_yards)
“So over six and a half catches, minus 105. No escalators, no crazy numbers on Jason. [50:16] I just think that's a reception too low.”
SEA 31, LAR 27 — Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 10 receptions vs over 6.5; covers. (Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 10 receptions)
“Minus 112 over 11.5. [52:48] It's just the standard line.”
SEA 31, LAR 27 — Kyren Williams: 22 receiving_yards vs over 11.5; covers. (Kyren Williams: 22 receiving_yards)
“But give me Parkinson plus 425 to [56:46] start out here”
Colby Parkinson did not score a touchdown in the Rams' 31-27 NFC Championship loss to the Seahawks.
“So we're playing the 10 and a half over longest reception and we got to do the receiving escalator.”
SEA 31, LAR 27 — Terrance Ferguson: 0 receiving_yards vs over 10.5; busts. (Terrance Ferguson: 0 receiving_yards)
“we're running back our longest catch and i had to play the touchdown here as well for ferguson”
Terrance Ferguson did not score a touchdown in the Rams' 31-27 NFC Championship loss to the Seahawks.
“Over half of a rushing yard. [1:01:20] I just need one yard from Rashid Shahid.”
SEA 31, LAR 27 — Rashid Shaheed: 0 rushing_yards vs over 0.5; busts. (Rashid Shaheed: 0 rushing_yards)
“Smith and Jigpa at 15-1 and Puka Nakua at 17-1.”
Jaxon Smith-Njigba did not win Super Bowl LX MVP; Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III was named MVP.
“Smith and Jigpa at 15-1 and Puka Nakua at 17-1.”
Puka Nacua's Rams lost the NFC Championship and missed Super Bowl LX; Kenneth Walker III won SB MVP.
“We are riding with Jared Stidham and the Denver Broncos, plus five and a half in the AFC [42:53] championship game.”
DEN 7, NE 10 — Denver Broncos margin -3 vs line +5.5; covers.
“NFC to win the Super Bowl, minus 220 at our sponsor, DraftKings. [48:02] That's the bet here.”
The NFC champion Seahawks won Super Bowl LX 29-13 over the AFC's Patriots.
“i'm gonna like the nfc team in the super bowl and at most books you can just bet that nfc [49:24] to win the super bowl minus 220 at our sponsor draft kings that's the bet here”
The NFC champion Seattle Seahawks won Super Bowl LX 29-13, cashing the NFC-to-win bet.
“Bills money line, minus 102, or best number you can find.”
DEN 33, BUF 30 — Buffalo Bills lost; moneyline busts.
“Bills team total over 23 and a half at DraftKings.”
DEN 33, BUF 30 — Combined 63; over 23.5 covers.
“We'll play 27 or better as well at two to one.”
DEN 33, BUF 30 — Combined 63; over 26.5 covers.
“Bills minus 5.5, plus 225.”
DEN 33, BUF 30 — Buffalo Bills margin -3 vs line -5.5; busts.
“So we took this on the hot read already on Sunday under 47 there I still see 45 45 I still like the under best here”
SEA 41, SF 6 — Combined 47; under 45 busts.
“Niners to cover plus Seattle to win. [32:04] So some books you can just do Seattle to win by one to seven points.”
Parlay busts: 49ers +7.5 +7.5 — lost; Seahawks ML — won.
“We'll take the Jake Tonjes unlikely playoff receptions escalator. [33:34] Five catches, plus 135, six at plus 257.”
SEA 41, SF 6 — Jake Tonges: 5 receptions vs over 5; pushes. (Jake Tonges: 5 receptions)
“But three catches is plus 190. He's hit that both [34:38] Niners matchups. I have to like that one.”
SEA 41, SF 6 — Kenneth Walker III: 3 receptions vs over 3; pushes. (Kenneth Walker III: 3 receptions)
“So I'm going to nibble the Houston money line, plus 150.”
NE 28, HOU 16 — Houston Texans lost; moneyline busts.
“Under one and a half passing touchdowns. So you get one or zero. That's [48:22] it, plus 25 rushing yards, plus 118.”
Parlay busts: Drake Maye under 1.5 passing TDs +1.5 — manual; Drake Maye over 25 rushing yards +25 — lost.
“And the line for him is just 19 and a half receiving yards. [49:39] Again, he's gone over that six straight games. [49:41] So we'll start with there.”
NE 28, HOU 16 — Rhamondre Stevenson: 11 receiving_yards vs over 19.5; busts. (Rhamondre Stevenson: 11 receiving_yards)
“I'm going to play the Rams minus three and a half. I don't mind four if”
CHI 17, LAR 20 — Los Angeles Rams margin +3 vs line -3.5; busts.
“So I like the over team total 26 and a half.”
CHI 17, LAR 20 — Combined 37; over 26.5 covers.
“Over 33 and a half plus 330.”
CHI 17, LAR 20 — Combined 37; over 33.5 covers.
“I'm going to take Seattle, minus 5.5, home against the Bears.”
SEA 31, LAR 27 — Seattle Seahawks margin +4 vs line -5.5; busts.
“Give me the under 46 and a half at DraftKings, Seahawks and Niners.”
Seahawks routed 49ers 41-6 in the Divisional round (47 combined points), over the 46.5 total. (Final: SEA 41, SF 6)
“Seahawks, Rams, Moneyline, Parlay. [50:59] It's even odds right now. [51:01] Let's call our shot.”
Both legs hit: Seahawks beat 49ers 41-6 and Rams beat Bears 20-17 in overtime in the Divisional round. (SEA 41-6 SF; LAR 20-17 (OT) CHI)
“So took Rams minus 10 on the hot read, 10.5 if you need it now, [30:08] playing the alts.”
CAR 31, LAR 34 — Los Angeles Rams margin +3 vs line -10; busts.
“Rams minus 12.5 plus 118.”
CAR 31, LAR 34 — Los Angeles Rams margin +3 vs line -12.5; busts.
“Rams minus 23.5 plus 420.”
CAR 31, LAR 34 — Los Angeles Rams margin +3 vs line -23.5; busts.
“So all of that led me on Sunday night to the hot read Bears minus 104 money line.”
Bears beat Packers 31-27 in the Wild Card round; Bears ML cashes. (Final: CHI 31, GB 27)
“best bet Under 22 and a half I think this game starts out quiet and gets interesting late”
Packers led 21-3 at halftime of the Bears game (24 combined points), over the 22.5 first-half total. (1H: GB 21, CHI 3)
“First quarter under nine and a half points”
Packers led Bears 7-3 after the first quarter (10 combined points), over the 9.5 first-quarter total. (Q1: GB 7, CHI 3)
“Jacksonville first half plus a half point It minus 115”
JAX 24, BUF 27 — Jacksonville Jaguars margin -3 vs line +0.5; busts.
“Jacksonville to win the AFC 6-1. That is a bet I'm putting in.”
The Patriots won the AFC, not the Jaguars (who lost in the Wild Card round to the Bills).
“Rams over Jaguars in the Super Bowl 40-1. That's the bet on this [1:04:16] game.”
The Super Bowl LX matchup was Seahawks vs. Patriots, not Rams vs. Jaguars.
“Josh Allen is plus 950 to lead the game in rushing yards. I always look at Allen [1:04:33] rushing yards in playoff matchups.”
Josh Allen rushed for 33 yards, leading Buffalo, but Jaguars' Travis Etienne Jr. led the entire game with 67 rushing yards. (Allen 33 yds (11 car); Etienne 67 yds (10 car))
“I'm going to do that as my best [1:13:57] bet. The under, whatever best number you get.”
PHI 19, SF 23 — Combined 42; under 45.5 covers.
“Under 45 and a half plus the [1:14:03] Eagles money line. Because we can tell I lean Eagles here. I don't want the four and a half, [1:14:07] but give me the money line with the under, plus 155.”
Parlay busts: Under 45.5 +45.5 — won; Eagles ML — lost.
“mine shaft season under 33 [1:14:42] and a half plus 460”
PHI 19, SF 23 — Combined 42; under 33.5 busts.
“under 27 and a half plus 870”
PHI 19, SF 23 — Combined 42; under 27.5 busts.
“Give me the under 46.5. [1:21:25] Give me the Chargers plus 3.5 together, plus 242.”
Parlay busts: Under 46.5 +46.5 — won; Chargers +3.5 +3.5 — lost.
“my first bet coming out swinging [1:23:16] was Bo Nix plus 1,300”
Kenneth Walker III won Super Bowl LX MVP; Bo Nix's Broncos did not reach the Super Bowl.
“The two I like best, [1:23:25] Jackson Smith and Jigba, 28-1,”
Kenneth Walker III won Super Bowl LX MVP, not Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
“Puka Nakua, 35-1. [1:23:29] Both would have to win around 15% of the time”
Kenneth Walker III won Super Bowl LX MVP; Puka Nacua's Rams did not reach the Super Bowl.
“And then Saquon Barkley, 66-1, [1:23:37] a matchup thing as well.”
Kenneth Walker III won Super Bowl LX MVP; Saquon Barkley's Eagles lost in the Wild Card round.
“James Cook 100 to 1 less so matchup for him”
Kenneth Walker III won Super Bowl LX MVP; James Cook's Bills did not reach the Super Bowl.
“Seahawks minus three and a half against the Packers I thought that was a misprint”
Green Bay was eliminated by Chicago in the Wild Card round, so the projected Seahawks-vs-Packers Divisional Round game never happened.
“I understand how historic this number is, but give me the 10 points at DraftKings and the Rams.”
CAR 31, LAR 34 — Los Angeles Rams margin +3 vs line -10; busts.
“And I'm just going to go ahead and take the Bears money line. [1:05:19] I see a minus 104 right now.”
CHI 31, GB 27 — Chicago Bears won; moneyline covers.
“Give me a Mike Evans. [14:43] Give me a touchdown. [14:44] It's plus 170 to Mike Evans.”
Mike Evans had 2 receptions for 34 yards and no TD in the Buccaneers' 16-14 win over the Panthers.
“It's Bucs to lose in the wildcard round. At DraftKings, that's under”
Buccaneers missed the playoffs entirely, so they were not eliminated in the Wild Card round.
“I still think McCaffrey is live for Offensive Player of the Year.”
Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba won 2025 AP Offensive Player of the Year, not Christian McCaffrey.
“I think the play here is Niners, NFC and Super Bowl tickets, plus 440 to win the NFC, plus 950 to win the Super Bowl.”
Seahawks won the NFC; the 49ers were eliminated 41-6 by Seattle in the Divisional round.
“plus 440 to win the NFC, plus 950 to win the Super Bowl.”
Seahawks won Super Bowl LX 29-13 over the Patriots; the 49ers lost in the Divisional round.
“I'll play both of them to lose, not in the wildcard round, in the divisional round.”
Ravens missed the playoffs and the Steelers lost in the Wild Card round (Texans 30-6), so neither was eliminated in the Divisional round.
“So over one and a half touchdowns for Drake May. [1:11:19] It's minus 160,”
Drake Maye threw only 1 touchdown pass (15 yards to Stevenson), under the 1.5 line, in the Patriots' 38-10 win.
“So Pukunakua, 573 yards the last three games, at least 167 in all three.”
ATL 27, LAR 24 — Puka Nacua: 47 receiving_yards vs over 107.5; busts. (Puka Nacua: 47 receiving_yards)
“I looked at Kyron rushing yard over 62 and a half.”
ATL 27, LAR 24 — Kyren Williams: 92 rushing_yards vs over 62.5; covers. (Kyren Williams: 92 rushing_yards)
“Kyron Williams, minus one 10 touchdown in seven of the last eight.”
Kyren Williams did not score in the Rams' 27-24 loss at Atlanta on Monday Night Football.
“And Blake Corum has scored a touchdown in four straight.”
Blake Corum left with an ankle injury in the 2nd quarter and did not score in the Falcons' 27-24 MNF win over the Rams.
“I'm gonna give you a four team money line parlay at plus 108 it's the AFC favorites parlay”
Parlay cashes: Broncos ML — won; Patriots ML — won; Jaguars ML — won; Texans ML — won.
“Give me the under. I think we get a blustery, classic Steelers-Ravens sort of outcome.”
PIT 26, BAL 24 — Combined 50; under 43.5 busts.
“Pittsburgh plus three and a half while it's there.”
PIT 26, BAL 24 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin +2 vs line +3.5; covers.
“I like the Colts and I'm going to bet them to win plus 245 on the money line or best you can find.”
IND 27, SF 48 — Indianapolis Colts lost; moneyline busts.
“Give me the Colts. [1:14:04] Colts plus seven against the Jaguars.”
IND 17, JAX 23 — Indianapolis Colts margin -6 vs line +7; covers.
“I'm going to go over 51 and a half Cardinals and Bengals.”
CIN 37, ARI 14 — Combined 51; over 51.5 busts.
“i do like on saturday hot read bonus texans money line plus 100 at the chargers”
LAC 16, HOU 20 — Houston Texans won; moneyline covers.
“and then titans dolphins patriots and colts that's what we're doing this week it is last i checked at [8:02] draft kings 114 to one odds”
Parlay busts: Saints ML — won; Lions -6.5 -6.5 — lost; Titans ML — won; Dolphins ML — lost; Patriots ML — won; Colts ML — lost.
“So give me a Lions minus six and a half.”
DET 24, PIT 29 — Detroit Lions margin -5 vs line -6.5; busts.
“titans money line plus 145 home against the chiefs man life comes at you fast”
TEN 26, KC 9 — Tennessee Titans won; moneyline covers.
“Browns, worst record in the league. [20:27] It's 22 to one right now.”
The Browns did not finish with the NFL's worst record; the Raiders, Jets, Cardinals, and Titans tied at 3-14 atop the draft order with Vegas taking the No. 1 pick.
“Bill's second half, minus four at the Browns.”
CLE 20, BUF 23 — Buffalo Bills margin +3 vs line -4; busts.
“vikings second half minus one and a half it's plus 105 at the giants”
NYG 13, MIN 16 — Minnesota Vikings margin +3 vs line -1.5; covers.
“I'm going to take the under in just the second half. [33:09] It's under 24-and-a-half, so let me get there.”
DAL 17, LAC 34 — Combined 51; under 24.5 busts.
“so herbert over 13 and a half rushing yards that's it he could [36:24] do that with one good scramble”
DAL 17, LAC 34 — Justin Herbert: 42 rushing_yards vs over 13.5; covers. (Justin Herbert: 42 rushing_yards)
“So give me Jacksonville first quarter. I'm going to take the money line plus 110.”
DEN 20, JAX 34 — Jacksonville Jaguars won; moneyline covers.
“So how are we betting it? Mike Evans, [46:33] touchdown. That's what you bet for Mike Evans. Plus 185, please.”
Mike Evans scored a 1-yard receiving TD from Baker Mayfield in the first quarter of the Bucs' 23-20 loss at Carolina.
“55 and a half. Give me the over on that. He's over”
CAR 23, TB 20 — Mike Evans: 31 receiving_yards vs over 55.5; busts. (Mike Evans: 31 receiving_yards)
“We need just 120. [50:52] 120 combined yards is even odds at DraftKings.”
De'Von Achane had 81 rushing + 9 receiving = 90 combined yards, under the 120-yard line, in the Dolphins' 45-21 loss to Cincinnati.
“It plus 325 for a Waller touchdown and 25 to 1 for 2”
Darren Waller had 3 catches for 40 yards with no touchdown in the Dolphins' 45-21 loss to Cincinnati.
“So six catches plus 350.”
MIA 21, CIN 45 — Chase Brown: 4 receptions vs over 6; busts. (Chase Brown: 4 receptions)
“So Patriots halftime full time is plus 240.”
BAL 24, NE 28 — New England Patriots won; moneyline covers.
“Two catches, which he's done twice in the last month, plus 155.”
BAL 24, NE 28 — Rasheen Ali: 2 receptions vs over 2; pushes. (Rasheen Ali: 2 receptions)
“I'm going to fade the Ravens again next week [1:07:12] by taking Packers minus three in Green Bay against the Ravens.”
GB 24, BAL 41 — Green Bay Packers margin -17 vs line -3; busts.
“So I'm going to play the 90 plus 145. [1:12:38] I'm starting right at the alt.”
PIT 28, MIA 15 — De'Von Achane: 60 rushing_yards vs over 90; busts. (De'Von Achane: 60 rushing_yards)
“Give me Greg Dulcich. [1:13:16] Over 17 and a half receiving yards.”
PIT 28, MIA 15 — Greg Dulcich: 46 receiving_yards vs over 17.5; covers. (Greg Dulcich: 46 receiving_yards)
“Eagles at the Commanders, under 45 and a half.”
WSH 18, PHI 29 — Combined 47; under 45.5 busts.
“falcons cardinals over 45 and a half”
ARI 19, ATL 26 — Combined 45; over 45.5 busts.
“Jets with the points plus 13 and a half we had a Panthers month here in the podcast four straight”
JAX 48, NYJ 20 — New York Jets margin -28 vs line +13.5; busts.
“Patriots first half, I'm going to choose past first half minus half a point. [17:45] It's plus 110 at DraftKings.”
NE 31, BUF 35 — New England Patriots lost; moneyline busts.
“Bill's second half minus one and a half points plus 120.”
NE 31, BUF 35 — Buffalo Bills margin +4 vs line -1.5; covers.
“in this game, I'm just going to play the fourth quarter angle [22:48] over 11.5 points in the fourth quarter.”
DEN 34, GB 26 — Combined 60; over 11.5 covers.
“total over for the Bears here. So give me the over 23 and a half.”
CHI 31, CLE 3 — Combined 34; over 23.5 covers.
“I'm gonna take the under 38 and a half here,”
PHI 31, LV 0 — Combined 31; under 38.5 covers.
“so i'm gonna play the money line [42:00] plus 225”
LAR 41, DET 34 — Detroit Lions lost; moneyline busts.
“10 receptions is plus 220.”
Puka Nacua had 9 receptions (career-high 181 yards) vs the Lions — under 10 receptions. (9 rec, 181 yds)
“150 yards is plus 451 at DraftKings.”
Puka Nacua had a career-high 181 receiving yards on 9 catches as the Rams beat the Lions 41-34 — over 150. (9 rec, 181 yds)
“I'm going to take the over 48 and a half [46:00] rushing yards and then we'll play the escalator a little bit.”
Chris Rodriguez was ruled out (groin injury) and did not play vs the Giants, recording 0 rushing yards — under 48.5. (DNP (inactive), 0 rush yds)
“Give me the [49:36] yards instead. 38 yards. That's a pretty easy line. He's hit that four in a row. So over 37 and a half.”
NO 20, CAR 17 — Juwan Johnson: 30 receiving_yards vs over 37.5; busts. (Juwan Johnson: 30 receiving_yards)
“So I'm going to go straight past one touchdown, [52:02] right to two, plus 170.”
Christian McCaffrey scored two TDs (1-yard rush and 1-yard reception) in the 49ers' 37-24 Week 15 win over Tennessee.
“I just want to talk about Christian McCaffrey, [52:12] Offensive Player of the Year. [52:13] 25 to 1.”
Jaxon Smith-Njigba won 2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, not Christian McCaffrey.
“So let's start with 100 yards for Chase. Easy, plus 135.”
CIN 0, BAL 24 — Ja'Marr Chase: 132 receiving_yards vs over 100; covers. (Ja'Marr Chase: 132 receiving_yards)
“Over 25 and a half for George Pickens and then touch on the escalator”
George Pickens' longest reception was 33 yards (3 catches, 33 yards) in the SNF Week 15 game vs Minnesota, over 25.5.
“Denver minus two and a half against Jacksonville at DraftKings.”
DEN 20, JAX 34 — Denver Broncos margin -14 vs line -2.5; busts.
“I'm going to take the under 42 and a half.”
LAC 22, PHI 19 — Combined 41; under 42.5 covers.
“I think the better angle is Chargers to miss the playoffs. [1:31:16] Plus 164 I see right now.”
Chargers finished 11-6 and made the 2025 playoffs as a wild card, so 'miss the playoffs' lost.
“give me a Dallas Goddard touchdown the [1:33:09] Chargers are dead last DVOA against the tight end”
Dallas Goedert caught 8 passes for 78 yards but scored no TD in the Eagles' 22-19 OT loss at the Chargers.
“Buccaneers, Falcons, under, and don't watch it.”
TB 28, ATL 29 — Combined 57; under 44.5 busts.
“Dolphins at Steelers. Under 44 and a half.”
PIT 28, MIA 15 — Combined 43; under 44.5 covers.
“here's a bonus hot read a futurist hot read nicky manuari defensive [1:41:28] rookie of the year best number you can find i still saw a 30 to 1 out there”
Nick Emmanwori lost 2025 Defensive Rookie of the Year to Browns LB Carson Schwesinger (40 first-place votes to 7).
“Seahawks, Bucs, Early, Broncos, Rams, Packers, all in the late slate. [6:36] And then the one shorter favorite, Miami on the road against the Jets.”
Parlay busts: Seahawks ML — won; Buccaneers ML — lost; Broncos ML — won; Rams ML — won; Packers ML — won; Dolphins ML — won.
“yeah going Dolphins there's a reason I threw them into the pick six”
NYJ 10, MIA 34 — Miami Dolphins margin +24 vs line -2.5; covers.
“I'm going to go first half Tampa on this one, minus five and a half on the first half line.”
TB 20, NO 24 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers margin -4 vs line -5.5; busts.
“Broncos second half at the Raiders, [17:11] minus three and a half.”
LV 17, DEN 24 — Denver Broncos margin +7 vs line -3.5; covers.
“a little Raiders team total mineshaft too, just in case they really can't score [20:22] under 10 and a half is three to one.”
LV 17, DEN 24 — Combined 41; under 10.5 busts.
“So let's do a six-point teaser. [20:40] Broncos full game down to one and a half. [20:43] Bucs full game down to two and a half.”
Parlay busts: Broncos -1.5 (teased) -1.5 — won; Buccaneers -2.5 (teased) -2.5 — lost.
“I'm going to take the Packers here. [26:50] Minus six and a half.”
GB 28, CHI 21 — Green Bay Packers margin +7 vs line -6.5; covers.
“And Jordan Love, 19-1 MVP, is a big futures article I put out this week.”
Matthew Stafford won 2025 NFL MVP; Jordan Love did not win.
“I gave out the under 43.5 on the hot read. [33:15] I'm just going there again.”
KC 10, HOU 20 — Combined 30; under 43.5 covers.
“why I'm also playing Chiefs to win the AFC plus 950 and a little bit on the Super Bowl ticket at [35:34] 18 to 1.”
The Patriots won the AFC Championship for the 2025 season; the Chiefs did not win the AFC.
“and a little bit on the Super Bowl ticket at [35:34] 18 to 1.”
The Seahawks won Super Bowl LX 29-13 over the Patriots; the Chiefs did not win the Super Bowl.
“I like Brenton Strange, so I'm going to take his over 39.5 receiving yards here.”
JAX 36, IND 19 — Brenton Strange: 27 receiving_yards vs over 39.5; busts. (Brenton Strange: 27 receiving_yards)
“Start with the rushing yards 95 and a half Just that the line but we playing it”
BUF 39, CIN 34 — James Cook III: 80 rushing_yards vs over 95.5; busts. (James Cook III: 80 rushing_yards)
“Cook is 3-1 at one book to lead the league in rushing yards.”
James Cook led the NFL in rushing yards with 1,621, edging Derrick Henry (1,595) and Jonathan Taylor (1,585).
“So I'm going to play split between six and seven catches. [49:04] Six is plus 135.”
ATL 9, SEA 37 — Kyle Pitts Sr.: 6 receptions vs over 5.5; covers. (Kyle Pitts Sr.: 6 receptions)
“Start with minus 13 and a half. [55:36] It's plus 168.”
ARI 17, LAR 45 — Los Angeles Rams margin +28 vs line -13.5; covers.
“Titans, Browns, you know we're going under 34 and a half, [58:02] and we're taking the mind shaft.”
CLE 29, TEN 31 — Combined 60; under 34.5 busts.
“Cleveland to get a shutout, [1:00:57] 16-1 at DraftKings.”
Cleveland did not record a shutout; the Browns scored 29 in a 31-29 loss to Tennessee.
“It's Quinshawn Judkins, the one guy [1:01:35] who's the running back against the Titans.”
Quinshon Judkins had 26 rush yards and no TD in the Browns' 31-29 loss to Tennessee.
“Give me the Judkins touchdown and the under 34 plus 375”
Parlay busts: Quinshon Judkins anytime TD — manual; Under 34.5 +34.5 — lost.
“Chargers at the Chiefs, under 45 and a half.”
KC 13, LAC 16 — Combined 29; under 45.5 covers.
“So to me, I just like the fast pace [1:08:15] starting Giants in this one. [1:08:17] So I would go New York.”
NE 33, NYG 15 — New York Giants margin -18 vs line +7.5; busts.
“Give me over .25 sacks. [1:08:28] It's plus 195 at DraftKings.”
Abdul Carter recorded 1 sack vs the Patriots, clearing over 0.25 sacks.
“Two sacks, probably not going to happen, but let's find out. [1:09:15] It's plus 1540.”
Abdul Carter had just 1 sack vs the Patriots, short of the 2+ sacks needed.
“20 to 1 for defensive rookie of the year I think still is in play.”
Browns LB Carson Schwesinger won 2025 Defensive Rookie of the Year; Carter was a finalist but lost.
“We're going to go Steelers, Ravens under. [1:15:07] You know how I love Steelers, Ravens, unders. [1:15:10] It's 45 and a half at DraftKings.”
BAL 22, PIT 27 — Combined 49; under 45.5 busts.
“Saints Bucks under 43 and a half another one I threw in the app this morning”
TB 20, NO 24 — Combined 44; under 43.5 busts.
“We love our Texans unders, of course, 43 and a half at DraftKings.”
KC 10, HOU 20 — Combined 30; under 43.5 covers.
“So I'm going to take the Lions minus two and a half against the Packers.”
DET 24, GB 31 — Detroit Lions margin -7 vs line -2.5; busts.
“So I'll play the touchdown for Montgomery at plus 140.”
David Montgomery scored a 3-yard rushing TD in the Lions' 31-24 Thanksgiving loss to the Packers.
“and then I will play rushing attempts just the higher line 15 attempts at 7-1”
David Montgomery had only about 8-11 carries (under 15) in the Thanksgiving loss to the Packers.
“So we'll play that five receptions at plus 150.”
DET 24, GB 31 — Jahmyr Gibbs: 3 receptions vs over 5; busts. (Jahmyr Gibbs: 3 receptions)
“So I will play seven Gibbs catches at six to one odds as well.”
DET 24, GB 31 — Jahmyr Gibbs: 3 receptions vs over 7; busts. (Jahmyr Gibbs: 3 receptions)
“Either way, give me the Chiefs minus three.”
DAL 31, KC 28 — Kansas City Chiefs margin -3 vs line -3; busts.
“Rasheed Rice as a touchdown guy, that's where I'm going to go with this one.”
Rashee Rice caught 2 receiving TDs in the Chiefs' 31-28 Thanksgiving loss to the Cowboys.
“Three touchdowns for Mahomes is plus 154.”
Patrick Mahomes threw 4 passing TDs vs the Cowboys, clearing the over 2.5 passing TDs line.
“So I'm going to play them both together tepidly, but Ravens minus six and a half, under 51 and [38:30] a half, it's plus 266.”
Parlay busts: Ravens -6.5 -6.5 — lost; Under 51.5 +51.5 — won.
“I'll take Andrews for the touchdown.”
Mark Andrews had 4 catches for 47 yards and no TD in the Ravens' 32-14 loss to the Bengals.
“So if that is right, I'll take 150 [42:04] yards at 7-1.”
BAL 14, CIN 32 — Ja'Marr Chase: 110 receiving_yards vs over 150; busts. (Ja'Marr Chase: 110 receiving_yards)
“So Gibbs plus 190 for most running back [44:33] receiving yards.”
Gibbs had just 18 receiving yards on Thanksgiving; Bengals RB Chase Brown led all running backs with 35 receiving yards. (Gibbs 3 rec, 18 yds; Chase Brown 3 rec, 35 yds)
“game log but four to one against the Bengals basically I'm just gonna take a”
Andrews led all Thanksgiving tight ends with 47 receiving yards, narrowly beating Travis Kelce (45) and Jake Ferguson (36). (Andrews 4 rec, 47 yds; Kelce 5 rec, 45 yds; Ferguson 5 rec, 36 yds)
“So after half Kings, the two Chiefs plus Derek Henry [45:24] is 40 to one for the Triple Crown.”
Mahomes was not the Thanksgiving slate's passing leader - Dak Prescott out-threw him roughly 320+ yards to 261, sinking the Triple Crown parlay. (Prescott ~320-329 yds vs. Mahomes 261 yds)
“give me [51:12] the over 17 and a half on the bears”
PHI 15, CHI 24 — Combined 39; over 17.5 covers.
“catches at plus 200 eight catches at plus 690”
PHI 15, CHI 24 — DeVonta Smith: 5 receptions vs over 6; busts. (DeVonta Smith: 5 receptions)
“catches at plus 200 eight catches at plus 690”
PHI 15, CHI 24 — DeVonta Smith: 5 receptions vs over 8; busts. (DeVonta Smith: 5 receptions)
“Steelers plus four and a half,”
PIT 7, BUF 26 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -19 vs line +4.5; busts.
“Steelers plus four and a half, and I'll touch the money line at plus 175.”
PIT 7, BUF 26 — Pittsburgh Steelers lost; moneyline busts.
“Give me the Jets plus two and a half.”
NYJ 27, ATL 24 — New York Jets margin +3 vs line +2.5; covers.
“jets alt minus six and a half plus 288”
NYJ 27, ATL 24 — New York Jets margin +3 vs line -6.5; busts.
“So I'm going to play Colts first quarter minus half a point.”
IND 16, HOU 20 — Indianapolis Colts margin -4 vs line -0.5; busts.
“And Miami minus two and a half in the first half line.”
MIA 21, NO 17 — Miami Dolphins margin +4 vs line -2.5; covers.
“That would be the Lions. [1:16:40] Plus 170, 37% implied versus 43% at FTN.”
Detroit finished 15-2 and won the NFC North division title.
“is I'm going to do Steelers, plus 360.”
Pittsburgh clinched the AFC North with a Week 18 26-24 win over the Ravens.
“Plus 145 for a kill touchdown.”
George Kittle did not score in the 49ers' 20-9 MNF win; SF TDs went to Jennings and McCaffrey only.
“I'll play the yards as well, over 54 and a half. So play the yards, play the touchdown,”
SF 20, CAR 9 — George Kittle: 78 receiving_yards vs over 54.5; covers. (George Kittle: 78 receiving_yards)
“let's start with the browns game under this week 49ers at browns under 42 and a”
CLE 8, SF 26 — Combined 34; under 42.5 covers.
“Broncos, Commanders, under 43 and a half.”
WSH 26, DEN 27 — Combined 53; under 43.5 busts.
“Rams Niners is the big favorites Cardinals Bengals got a win not just a cover get them all together”
Parlay busts: Lions ML — won; Seahawks ML — won; Rams ML — won; 49ers ML — won; Cardinals ML — lost; Bengals ML — lost.
“So Chase Brown, 5, 6, 7, 8 on the catches. T. Higgins, 90 yards, 90 and a score. And then Bengals all the way, plus 6.5, best line you can get, plus 250 money line, best line you can get.”
CIN 20, NE 26 — Cincinnati Bengals margin -6 vs line +6.5; covers.
“Give me the plus 250 money line.”
CIN 20, NE 26 — Cincinnati Bengals lost; moneyline busts.
“90 yards is where i'm going to play it at plus 240 so kind of just shooting right for the outlier”
CIN 20, NE 26 — Tee Higgins: 31 receiving_yards vs over 90; busts. (Tee Higgins: 31 receiving_yards)
“So I like the over four and a half catches for Chase Brown. That's even odds.”
CIN 20, NE 26 — Chase Brown: 2 receptions vs over 4.5; busts. (Chase Brown: 2 receptions)
“but I like the Cardinals at plus three. I'll be playing the money line as well.”
ARI 24, JAX 27 — Arizona Cardinals margin -3 vs line +3; pushes.
“and plus 145 on the money line as well”
ARI 24, JAX 27 — Arizona Cardinals lost; moneyline busts.
“So McBride touchdown second straight week Just run it back, plus 110.”
Trey McBride had 9 catches for 79 yards but no TD in the Cardinals' 27-24 OT loss to Jacksonville.
“Give me the plus three and a half while it's there. Give me the money line plus 155.”
DAL 24, PHI 21 — Dallas Cowboys margin +3 vs line +3.5; covers.
“I will bet the money line, but I could see a world where the Eagles do the Eagles thing again”
DAL 24, PHI 21 — Dallas Cowboys won; moneyline covers.
“give me the Rams minus six and a half”
LAR 34, TB 7 — Los Angeles Rams margin +27 vs line -6.5; covers.
“minus 10 and I'm going to play the blow at escalator as well”
DET 34, NYG 27 — Detroit Lions margin +7 vs line -10; busts.
“i'm going to take the under here and just give me the game”
TEN 24, SEA 30 — Combined 54; under 40.5 busts.
“So over 50 and a half yards. And I'm not going to go super too crazy on the escalator.”
KC 23, IND 20 — Travis Kelce: 43 receiving_yards vs over 50.5; busts. (Travis Kelce: 43 receiving_yards)
“so we took the under on the hot read under 37 and a half both defenses are the advantage”
LV 10, CLE 24 — Combined 34; under 37.5 covers.
“but I'll take a sack for him. And then again, I think if you”
Maxx Crosby recorded five TFL but no sack in the Raiders' 24-10 loss to Cleveland (ESPN game log shows 0 sacks).
“Save the Cowboys, bet the Chiefs. Chiefs”
DAL 31, KC 28 — Kansas City Chiefs margin -3 vs line -3.5; busts.
“I like him for the touchdown, minus 140, your best [1:20:50] number you can find.”
Ashton Jeanty did not score in the Raiders' 33-16 Week 11 MNF loss to Dallas (only Raiders TD was Tre Tucker).
“Gentry's 50 to one right now at some books. So I'm going to take that as a Monday night [1:21:43] play on top of the touchdown bet”
Ashton Jeanty did not win 2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year; Tetairoa McMillan won.
“i like genti over [1:21:55] 16 and a half receiving yards”
LV 16, DAL 33 — Ashton Jeanty: 27 receiving_yards vs over 16.5; covers. (Ashton Jeanty: 27 receiving_yards)
“give me the under 37 and a half.”
LV 10, CLE 24 — Combined 34; under 37.5 covers.
“I'm going to go with the Bengals, [1:27:06] plus seven against the Patriots in Cincinnati.”
CIN 20, NE 26 — Cincinnati Bengals margin -6 vs line +7; covers.
“Bengals plus seven. Give me the [1:29:09] money line plus 285”
CIN 20, NE 26 — Cincinnati Bengals lost; moneyline busts.
“let's end it right bangles escalator hear me out to win [1:29:18] the division at 40 to 1 at draft kings”
The Bengals (3-8 stretch) did not win the AFC North; the Steelers won the division at 10-7.
“at the beginning of the pick six, it is Patriots money line.”
NE 27, NYJ 14 — New England Patriots won; moneyline covers.
“we're all in on panthers this week at the falcons so the panthers are the upset”
ATL 27, CAR 30 — Carolina Panthers won; moneyline covers.
“so lines plus [13:45] three be sure to grab the three if you can while it's there”
PHI 16, DET 9 — Detroit Lions margin -7 vs line +3; busts.
“Lions minus five and a half is the alt I'm going to play [14:02] plus 246”
PHI 16, DET 9 — Detroit Lions margin -7 vs line -5.5; busts.
“Goff is 30 to one. I'm not calling my shot as [15:40] MVP, but I think it's the right ticket to add in this matchup.”
Jared Goff did not win 2025 NFL MVP; Matthew Stafford won the award.
“I'm looking under all the way here. [19:26] And look, this was our hot read. [19:27] So I still like it. [19:29] It's under 44.5.”
DEN 22, KC 19 — Combined 41; under 44.5 covers.
“So under eight and a half points in the first quarter.”
DEN 22, KC 19 — Combined 41; under 8.5 busts.
“Chase to lead the league in receiving yards on the season plus 550”
Ja'Marr Chase (1,412 yds) did not lead the NFL in 2025 receiving yards; Jaxon Smith-Njigba led with 1,793.
“So 80 yards plus 230, 100 yards at 5 to 1.”
PIT 34, CIN 12 — Tee Higgins: 63 receiving_yards vs over 80; busts. (Tee Higgins: 63 receiving_yards)
“So straight to the alts here. 100 yards for Warren, plus 310, 120 yards is 7-1.”
PIT 34, CIN 12 — Jaylen Warren: 62 rushing_yards vs over 100; busts. (Jaylen Warren: 62 rushing_yards)
“Kenneth Gainwell touchdown, plus 470.”
Kenneth Gainwell caught two receiving TDs (11 and 5 yards) in the Steelers' 34-12 Week 11 win over the Bengals.
“22 carries at DraftKings plus 155, 24 carries plus 261.”
Rico Dowdle had 19 rushing attempts in the Panthers' 30-27 Week 11 win over the Falcons, under the 22 line.
“That's the number Atlanta has been allowing six to one for 140.”
ATL 27, CAR 30 — Rico Dowdle: 45 rushing_yards vs over 140; busts. (Rico Dowdle: 45 rushing_yards)
“Give me the Lions minus nine and a half against the Giants next week.”
DET 34, NYG 27 — Detroit Lions margin +7 vs line -9.5; busts.
“i think you should bet jonathan taylor for offensive player of the year he's only [1:20:48] minus 350 right now”
Jonathan Taylor did not win 2025 Offensive Player of the Year; Jaxon Smith-Njigba won at NFL Honors.
“think Dallas Goddard plus 235. Packers allow a lot of tight end touchdowns. He's got seven in seven”
Dallas Goedert did not score in the Eagles' 10-7 win over the Packers (their only TD was DeVonta Smith).
“My favorite bet in this game is Saquon Barkley. Not as a runner, but as a receiver. I”
GB 7, PHI 10 — Saquon Barkley: 3 receptions vs over 2.5; covers. (Saquon Barkley: 3 receptions)
“at the Falcons plus three and a half. I think there is one straight plus four out there if you”
ATL 27, CAR 30 — Carolina Panthers margin +3 vs line +3.5; covers.
“And I'm going to play the money line as well. Plus 175 for a Carolina outright win.”
ATL 27, CAR 30 — Carolina Panthers won; moneyline covers.
“Chiefs, Broncos, give me the under. [1:43:52] Under 44 and a half.”
DEN 22, KC 19 — Combined 41; under 44.5 covers.
“give me the Colts, [11:47] then early slate, Bills and Bears, and then all three games. [11:51] We only have three in the late afternoon slate. [11:53] We're taking them all. [11:54] Lions, Seahawks, and Rams.”
The Pick 6 parlay busted on the Bills leg: Miami beat Buffalo 30-13 outright, with the Bills closing as roughly 9.5-point favorites — a total blowout loss regardless of the other legs. (Dolphins 30, Bills 13 (Bills leg lost outright as the favorite))
“I really like the Steelers here. Pittsburgh plus three for [13:25] me and we'll play the money line.”
LAC 25, PIT 10 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -15 vs line +3; busts.
“Chargers to miss the playoffs, plus 225. This is a rough spot.”
The Chargers made the 2025 playoffs (finished 11-6, AFC wild card), so the bet on them to miss the playoffs loses.
“Ravens over 26.5 on the team total, and we'll get to an escalator.”
MIN 19, BAL 27 — Combined 46; over 26.5 covers.
“I'm going to take a Bills second half play, minus three and a half.”
MIA 30, BUF 13 — Buffalo Bills margin -17 vs line -3.5; busts.
“over 17 and a half rushing attempts minus 116”
James Cook had 19 rushing attempts (108 yards, 1 TD) in the Bills' 31-21 win over the Dolphins, over 17.5.
“DeAndre Swift over 50 and a half yards”
CHI 24, NYG 20 — D'Andre Swift: 80 rushing_yards vs over 50.5; covers. (D'Andre Swift: 80 rushing_yards)
“Manungay, 50 yards, plus 180, and then just a touch on 100 yards at 15 to 1.”
CHI 24, NYG 20 — Kyle Monangai: 28 rushing_yards vs over 50; busts. (Kyle Monangai: 28 rushing_yards)
“Saints, plus 215 on the money line. [45:09] Let's get Tyler Schock, a first career win.”
CAR 7, NO 17 — New Orleans Saints won; moneyline covers.
“the line for Walker is 12 and a half [51:01] rushing attempts. I'm going to take the over.”
Kenneth Walker III had 13 rushing attempts (105 yards, 1 TD) vs. the Cardinals, over 12.5.
“100 yards is plus 116 at DraftKings.”
SF 26, LAR 42 — Puka Nacua: 64 receiving_yards vs over 100; busts. (Puka Nacua: 64 receiving_yards)
“browns jets over 37 and a half browns jets over escalator and we're taking it all the way up”
NYJ 27, CLE 20 — Combined 47; over 37.5 covers.
“pain durham for a touchdown at 10 to 1”
Payne Durham did not score in the Bucs' 28-23 loss to the Patriots.
“I want Otten. I want it over three and a half. Looks like it's over [1:10:05] four and a half. I'll skip and go right to the escalator. Seven catches plus 350, eight plus 700, [1:10:12] nine for 1200. I'm playing all three.”
TB 23, NE 28 — Cade Otton: 9 receptions vs over 3.5; covers. (Cade Otton: 9 receptions)
“I'm going to take Carolina here. [1:11:46] It's plus three and a half at DraftKings.”
ATL 27, CAR 30 — Carolina Panthers margin +3 vs line +3.5; covers.
“So Cowboys minus three, [1:33:05] and I do like Harrison to find the end zone plus 160.”
DAL 17, ARI 27 — Dallas Cowboys margin -10 vs line -3; busts.
“i think marvin harrison jr to score [1:32:21] touchdown plus 160 i seeing out there”
Marvin Harrison Jr. caught a 4-yard TD from Jacoby Brissett in Arizona's 27-17 MNF win.
“Texans Jaguars under [1:37:06] 39.5 at DraftKings [1:37:08] just minus 110”
HOU 36, JAX 29 — Combined 65; under 39.5 busts.
“Give me the Rams. [1:40:23] Minus three on the road in San Fran.”
SF 26, LAR 42 — Los Angeles Rams margin +16 vs line -3; covers.
“I'm going to play the Lions, but I'm going to play just the first half, [11:51] minus five and a half on the first half ATS line.”
DET 24, MIN 27 — Detroit Lions margin -3 vs line -5.5; busts.
“100 yards plus 240 120 yards plus 475”
DET 24, MIN 27 — Justin Jefferson: 47 receiving_yards vs over 100; busts. (Justin Jefferson: 47 receiving_yards)
“Rams to have the lead after every quarter of the game.”
The Rams led after every quarter (7-0, 20-10, 27-10, 34-10) in their 34-10 win over the Saints.
“So Saints alternate team total under 10 and a half plus 246 at DraftKings.”
LAR 34, NO 10 — Combined 44; under 10.5 busts.
“It's 15 to [20:27] one at DraftKings. Look for shutout, or you can do like an alternate under two and a half points,”
Rams beat Saints 34-10; New Orleans scored 10 points so the shutout did not hit.
“under 45 and a half so i do have jaguars in the pick six”
LV 29, JAX 30 — Combined 59; under 45.5 busts.
“So Bowers over 45 and a half yards.”
LV 29, JAX 30 — Brock Bowers: 127 receiving_yards vs over 45.5; covers. (Brock Bowers: 127 receiving_yards)
“47 is the number we need over 46 and a half”
Travis Hunter suffered a season-ending knee injury in practice on Oct 30 and was placed on IR before the Week 9 game vs Las Vegas — he never played, so the prop has no stat to grade. (Hunter: DNP (IR, season-ending knee surgery))
“Chiefs to win from behind, plus 215 at DraftKings.”
Bills beat Chiefs 28-21; Kansas City lost so 'Chiefs to win' busts.
“we can play that neither team to win by seven”
Bills won by exactly 7 (28-21), so a team did win by 7+ and 'neither to win by 7+' lost.
“both teams to score in the fourth quarter, minus 190.”
Both teams scored in Q4 (Bills 8, Chiefs 7) of the 28-21 final.
“So over 35 and a half rushing yards.”
BUF 28, KC 21 — Josh Allen: 19 rushing_yards vs over 35.5; busts. (Josh Allen: 19 rushing_yards)
“10 rushing attempts so two extras plus 375 Nine Chiefs games he hit 10 rushing attempts in seven of the nine”
Josh Allen had only 6 rushing attempts vs the Chiefs, under the 9.5 (10+) line.
“so alan rushing touchdown again anytime touchdown plus 115”
Josh Allen ran for 2 rushing touchdowns in the Bills' 28-21 win over Kansas City.
“I like DeAndre Swift here. [51:01] I think this is a good rushing setup for him. [51:03] So I'm going to take his rushing yards over and an anytime touchdown.”
DeAndre Swift was inactive (groin injury) for the Bears-Bengals Week 9 game and did not play, so the rushing yards + anytime-TD prop never had a chance to settle. (Swift: inactive/DNP (CHI 47, CIN 42))
“Give me Kamani Vidal. It's even [53:27] odds.”
Kimani Vidal had 12 carries for 30 yards and no touchdown vs the Titans.
“53 yards is perfect. We need over 52 and a half.”
PIT 27, IND 20 — Tyler Warren: 26 receiving_yards vs over 52.5; busts. (Tyler Warren: 26 receiving_yards)
“touchdown is plus 145 Warren scored for the last five games”
Tyler Warren had receptions but no TD in the Colts' 27-20 loss at Pittsburgh.
“Giants minus four and a half.”
NYG 24, SF 34 — New York Giants margin -10 vs line -4.5; busts.
“And then minus nine and a half. [1:01:53] So double digit win plus 450.”
NYG 24, SF 34 — New York Giants margin -10 vs line -9.5; busts.
“I'm taking a shot on the Panthers' money line. [1:02:37] It's plus 750.”
GB 13, CAR 16 — Carolina Panthers won; moneyline covers.
“So those six teams, Ravens, Rams, Jaguars, Lions, Seahawks, Cowboys, plus 568.”
The Pick Six parlay busted on the Cowboys leg: Dallas lost outright 27-17 to the Cardinals (MNF), sinking the six-team slip regardless of the other legs. (Cardinals 27, Cowboys 17 (Cowboys leg lost outright))
“Here we are, Lions minus 3 at the Commander's. [1:06:39] It's a very similar pick.”
WSH 22, DET 44 — Detroit Lions margin +22 vs line -3; covers.
“So chiefs under 48.”
KC 28, WSH 7 — Combined 35; under 48 covers.
“So I'll take a Rasheed Rice score.”
Rashee Rice caught an 18-yard TD in the Chiefs' 28-7 Week 8 MNF win over the Commanders.
“broncos at texans under 40 and a half”
HOU 15, DEN 18 — Combined 33; under 40.5 covers.
“So I'm going to go Cowboys over 23 and a half.”
DEN 44, DAL 24 — Combined 68; over 23.5 covers.
“total here similar to dallas the total is at 30 and a half”
IND 38, TEN 14 — Combined 52; over 30.5 covers.
“I am going to play just a little bit on the nine to one Titans money line because”
IND 38, TEN 14 — Tennessee Titans lost; moneyline busts.
“This week, I'm going to fade him under 17 and a half rushing attempts against the Browns.”
Rhamondre Stevenson had 14 rushing attempts (under 17.5) in the Patriots' 32-13 Week 8 win over the Browns.
“I'm going to go with Ravens first half here.”
BAL 30, CHI 16 — Baltimore Ravens margin +14 vs line -3.5; covers.
“So you can play 1,250 yards at minus 150.”
Derrick Henry finished the 2025 regular season with 1,595 rushing yards, over the 1,250 line.
“30 to 1 at draft kings to lead the league”
Matthew Stafford led the NFL with 46 passing TDs in 2025; Lamar Jackson did not lead the league.
“So over 39 and a half rushing yards, so 40 yards or more. That's the bet for Tyler Algier.”
ATL 10, MIA 34 — Tyler Allgeier: 4 rushing_yards vs over 39.5; busts. (Tyler Allgeier: 4 rushing_yards)
“So I'm going to pre-offset my bet with a Dolphins plus 350 on the money line.”
ATL 10, MIA 34 — Miami Dolphins won; moneyline covers.
“Texans minus nine and a half.”
HOU 26, SF 15 — Houston Texans margin +11 vs line -9.5; covers.
“Texans 20 point winner better, minus 19 and a half, 12 to one.”
HOU 26, SF 15 — Houston Texans margin +11 vs line -19.5; busts.
“Tucker Kraft plus 165 and if you like two touchdowns”
Tucker Kraft caught two TDs in the Packers' 35-25 Week 8 win over the Steelers.
“so Darnell Washington touchdown plus 375”
Darnell Washington did not score in the Steelers' 35-25 Week 8 loss to the Packers (Pittsburgh scored no rushing/receiving TDs by Washington).
“the plus 260 on the Jets I just think some of these long underdogs are gonna get home this week”
CIN 38, NYJ 39 — New York Jets won; moneyline covers.
“So Noah Fant, plus 325 for a touchdown.”
Noah Fant caught 3 passes for 41 yards but no TD in the Bengals' 39-38 Week 8 loss to the Jets.
“Let's get a touchdown on the board.”
Mason Taylor caught a 4-yard TD pass from Breece Hall in the Jets' 39-38 Week 8 win over the Bengals.
“It's got to be Taysom Hill.”
Taysom Hill did not score; the Saints managed only a field goal in their 23-3 Week 8 loss to the Buccaneers.
“I'm gonna play the Panthers money line plus 320”
CAR 9, BUF 40 — Carolina Panthers lost; moneyline busts.
“seahawks at commanders give me seattle”
WSH 14, SEA 38 — Seattle Seahawks margin +24 vs line -2.5; covers.
“This was a hot read pick for me and I still on the Lions minus five and a half six if you need it obviously best number you can”
DET 24, TB 9 — Detroit Lions margin +15 vs line -5.5; covers.
“So I want receptions over six and a half.”
DET 24, TB 9 — Amon-Ra St. Brown: 6 receptions vs over 6.5; busts. (Amon-Ra St. Brown: 6 receptions)
“game i i wouldn't mind i'm gonna be on seattle here i wouldn't mind waiting in and playing like”
SEA 27, HOU 19 — Seattle Seahawks margin +8 vs line -3; covers.
“Give me the Steelers, plus three and a half, home against the Packers.”
PIT 25, GB 35 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -10 vs line +3.5; busts.
“more than double i think any other coach in our database so steelers on the money line plus 155”
PIT 25, GB 35 — Pittsburgh Steelers lost; moneyline busts.
“Rams against the Jaguars in London on Sunday morning. Patriots at the Titans. We mentioned that game already. Chiefs and the Raiders, no shocker there. Packers over the Cardinals. And then the doubleheader Monday night, apparently our last one, maybe for a while. Lions over the Bucs and Seahawks over the Texans. So those six money lines together. This week it is all favorites, plus 630.”
Parlay cashes: Rams ML — won; Patriots ML — won; Chiefs ML — won; Packers ML — won; Lions ML — won; Seahawks ML — won.
“Seattle safety Nick Imanwari for to be defensive rookie of the year at 60 to 1”
Nick Emmanwori finished a distant second in 2025 Defensive Rookie of the Year voting; he did not win.
“I'm going to take the Rams.”
JAX 7, LAR 35 — Los Angeles Rams margin +28 vs line -3; covers.
“So I can tell you, we get a touchdown at even odds.”
Davante Adams caught three TDs from Stafford in the Rams' 35-7 win over the Jaguars in London.
“So I'll take Vikings plus two and a half.”
MIN 22, PHI 28 — Minnesota Vikings margin -6 vs line +2.5; busts.
“Giants, there is a seven and a half out there.”
DEN 33, NYG 32 — New York Giants margin -1 vs line +7.5; covers.
“this year one and three so why not just the under the one thing i haven't led with here i kind of”
NYJ 6, CAR 13 — Combined 19; under 40 covers.
“Washington alt line minus six and a half at plus 210 and Dallas alt”
DAL 44, WSH 22 — Dallas Cowboys margin +22 vs line -6.5; covers.
“I'm going to take the Falcons.”
SF 20, ATL 10 — Atlanta Falcons margin -10 vs line +2.5; busts.
“Yeah, I'm going to take Seahawks.”
SEA 27, HOU 19 — Seattle Seahawks margin +8 vs line -3; covers.
“so I'll probably touch that one as well but the main play Roma Dunze when in Rome plus 125 for a”
Rome Odunze caught a 4th-quarter TD from Caleb Williams in the Bears' 26-14 win over the Saints.
“then there is one book out there that has a special that fits our trend Caleb two passing”
Bears won 26-14 but Caleb Williams threw only one TD pass (his first of 2025, to Odunze), short of 2+.
“I'm going to go with Ramondre Stevenson plus 120 for a touchdown.”
Rhamondre Stevenson scored a 3-yard rushing TD in the Patriots' 31-13 win over the Titans.
“Over 75.5 receiving yards.”
MIN 22, PHI 28 — Justin Jefferson: 79 receiving_yards vs over 75.5; covers. (Justin Jefferson: 79 receiving_yards)
“95 yards, 82 plus all three games, two touchdowns over half the snaps, so over 78 and a half yards”
CLE 31, MIA 6 — Quinshon Judkins: 84 rushing_yards vs over 78.5; covers. (Quinshon Judkins: 84 rushing_yards)
“nine, and nine in five of the six games. So start the escalator with the over on receptions. It's”
DET 24, TB 9 — Amon-Ra St. Brown: 6 receptions vs over 6.5; busts. (Amon-Ra St. Brown: 6 receptions)
“so i'm going to take a bill's second [1:07:57] half position”
ATL 24, BUF 14 — Buffalo Bills margin -10 vs line -2.5; busts.
“bill's team total right [1:08:02] now is 27 and a half plus 100 on that one 30 points and bill's wins 15 of their last 17 wins”
ATL 24, BUF 14 — Combined 38; over 27.5 covers.
“I going to take the Bears Some trends in Chicago favor here”
WSH 24, CHI 25 — Chicago Bears margin +1 vs line +5.5; covers.
“I'm gonna touch the money line too I think Chicago has a real shot here to get the win [1:13:48] and you got Ben Johnson settling in. [1:13:50] I had to get the name out there in the pick. [1:13:52] Money line is plus 220.”
WSH 24, CHI 25 — Chicago Bears won; moneyline covers.
“we're going to take the lions all the [1:17:01] way to monday night next week lions home against the buccaneers five and a half right now at [1:17:06] draft kings give me detroit football”
DET 24, TB 9 — Detroit Lions margin +15 vs line -5.5; covers.
“Panthers Moneyline. [1:19:57] It's an even plus 100 out there.”
NYJ 6, CAR 13 — Carolina Panthers won; moneyline covers.
“So give me some Travis Etienne props I going to take the over on his rushing yards over 60 and a half”
JAX 31, KC 28 — Travis Etienne Jr.: 49 rushing_yards vs over 60.5; busts. (Travis Etienne Jr.: 49 rushing_yards)
“have told you was going to be the hot read like in august steelers minus four and a half against”
PIT 23, CLE 9 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin +14 vs line -4.5; covers.
“minus four and a half at the Dolphins Miami offensively it was very worrying to me today”
MIA 27, LAC 29 — Los Angeles Chargers margin +2 vs line -4.5; busts.
“At DraftKings right now, we can get an under 36 and a half. [8:53] So grab that if you can.”
CLE 17, MIN 21 — Combined 38; under 36.5 busts.
“30 and a half plus 190 we going under 27 and a half plus 290”
CLE 17, MIN 21 — Combined 38; under 30.5 busts.
“we going under 27 and a half plus 290”
CLE 17, MIN 21 — Combined 38; under 27.5 busts.
“Reischardt over 1.5 field goals from Minnesota [14:34] feels like free money at this point with the tackles”
Will Reichard made 0 field goals (0/1, missed a 51-yarder) in the Vikings' 21-17 London win over Cleveland, short of the 1.5 line.
“Yeah, this is my favorite side of the week. [15:10] I'm going with the Seahawks. [15:11] Minus three if you can.”
SEA 35, TB 38 — Seattle Seahawks margin -3 vs line -3; busts.
“but also play a Seattle minus nine and a half, plus 215.”
SEA 35, TB 38 — Seattle Seahawks margin -3 vs line -9.5; busts.
“and it's near even odds minus 115 so I like the Seattle escalator there too”
Seattle made the 2025 playoffs as the NFC No. 1 seed and went on to win Super Bowl LX.
“Yeah, so I'm going to go Cardinals and Colts. [23:06] Give me the favorites here. [23:08] That's 7.5 for the Cardinals, teased down to 1.5, [23:11] and Colts at 7, teased down to 1.”
Parlay busts: Cardinals -1.5 -1.5 — lost; Colts -1 -1 — won.
“So yeah, under 40 and [29:44] a half if you need it because Houston's 4-0 to even that under right now.”
BAL 10, HOU 44 — Combined 54; under 40.5 busts.
“Under 37.5, I skipped over that one. [30:26] That's our last key number, so plus 145.”
BAL 10, HOU 44 — Combined 54; under 37.5 busts.
“So that's at plus 235.”
BAL 10, HOU 44 — Combined 54; under 33.5 busts.
“And then 30.5 or below, so 30 points or less. [30:17] They've gone under that in the non-Lamar games over half of the time, 54%. [30:21] We get plus 350 on that one.”
BAL 10, HOU 44 — Combined 54; under 30.5 busts.
“Yeah, I'm going to take the under here, under 49 and a half.”
CIN 24, DET 37 — Combined 61; under 49.5 busts.
“I going to nibble the long shot Patriots on the money line plus 360”
BUF 20, NE 23 — New England Patriots won; moneyline covers.
“Patriots to make the playoffs plus 172.”
New England made the 2025 playoffs and reached Super Bowl LX (lost to Seattle 29-13).
“so give me Brees over 20 and a half receiving yards he has [55:31] had 30 yards receiving or more in three of the four games this year”
NYJ 22, DAL 37 — Breece Hall: 42 receiving_yards vs over 20.5; covers. (Breece Hall: 42 receiving_yards)
“we get him at plus 700 because he's a name we don't really know [56:51] too much about yet. So, Brees Hall receiving yards, Isaiah Davis on the touchdown”
Isaiah Davis scored no TD (1 carry, 5 yards; 3 catches, 28 yards) in the Jets' 37-22 Week 5 loss to Dallas.
“It's Dallas minus 2.5. [57:44] It's Brees Hall over 20.5 receiving yards, [57:48] and it's Isaiah Davis to find the end zone, 18-1 SGP,”
SGP busts: Cowboys covered -2.5 easily (won 37-22) and Breece Hall cleared 20.5 receiving yards (4 rec, 42 yds), but Isaiah Davis did not score a touchdown — the Jets' only TDs went to Andrew Beck and Garrett Wilson — so the parlay loses. (Cowboys 37, Jets 22; Hall 4 rec/42 yds; Davis: no TD)
“Give me the Eagles. [58:28] Minus six and a half at the Giants.”
NYG 34, PHI 17 — Philadelphia Eagles margin -17 vs line -6.5; busts.
“here's my bet i'm gonna take the under”
MIA 27, NYJ 21 — Combined 48; under 45.5 busts.
“take the Bengals just in a by-low spot. You can't get much uglier than what the Bengals did last”
DEN 28, CIN 3 — Cincinnati Bengals margin -25 vs line +7.5; busts.
“we're going with two unders and they're pretty ugly unders so let's start with my vikings and [1:20:33] the browns just a heads up you probably sleep in next sunday under 37 and a half at draft kings”
CLE 17, MIN 21 — Combined 38; under 37.5 busts.
“Giants Saints under [1:23:28] 42 and a half we talked about the Giants”
NO 26, NYG 14 — Combined 40; under 42.5 covers.
“we're back again vikings minus two and a half against the steelers”
PIT 24, MIN 21 — Minnesota Vikings margin -3 vs line -2.5; busts.
“give me the under under 44 and a half easy easy under last week”
DET 34, CLE 10 — Combined 44; under 44.5 covers.
“Here's my play. Bills team total. I'm playing an alt team total, but a low alt over 29 and a half. [19:45] So 30 points or more. It's minus 170 at DraftKings.”
BUF 31, NO 19 — Combined 50; over 29.5 covers.
“it's just Micah Parsons get a sack find the best number you can best I see”
Micah Parsons recorded a sack (including an overtime sack of Dak Prescott) in the Packers' 40-40 tie at Dallas.
“So we played Packers on the hot read. We got minus five. [30:47] Hopefully you tailed that and minus five and a half. [30:49] If not, I still like that a lot.”
DAL 40, GB 40 — Green Bay Packers margin +0 vs line -5.5; busts.
“join love just over one and a half passing touchdowns it's at minus 136”
Jordan Love threw three touchdown passes (over 1.5) in the Packers' 40-40 tie at Dallas.
“The number we get here is over 7.5, plus 108.”
Puka Nacua caught 13 passes (career-high 170 yards) in the Rams' 27-20 win over the Colts — well over the 7.5 reception line. (Nacua: 13 rec, 170 yds.)
“I want rushing yards over 62 and a half and we'll take the escalator”
NYG 21, LAC 18 — Omarion Hampton: 128 rushing_yards vs over 62.5; covers. (Omarion Hampton: 128 rushing_yards)
“rookie of the year, Omerian Hampton”
Tetairoa McMillan won 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at NFL Honors; Omarion Hampton did not win.
“Same game parlay at DraftKings. Jalen Hurts, [44:46] 30 passing attempts, plus an interception for Hurts, and the Bucs cover the three and a half, [44:52] plus 465”
Parlay busts: Jalen Hurts 30+ passing attempts +29.5 — manual; Jalen Hurts interception — manual; Buccaneers +3.5 +3.5 — lost.
“Henry, 100 yards and a touchdown plus Ravens' money line [49:15] because that's all part of the script.”
Parlay busts: Derrick Henry 100+ rushing yards +99.5 — lost; Derrick Henry anytime TD — manual; Ravens ML — lost.
“chargers minus two and a half at draft kings against the commanders”
LAC 10, WSH 27 — Los Angeles Chargers margin -17 vs line -2.5; busts.
“Old faithful, Lamar first half. [1:06:16] We know the stat, 60-34-2, 64% ATS in the first half for his career, 2-0 ATS this year. [1:06:24] And first half number is minus 2.5.”
BAL 30, DET 38 — Baltimore Ravens margin -8 vs line -2.5; busts.
“A lot of trends like the under here. [1:06:36] That's the hater bet, I suppose. [1:06:39] This total has been bet up. [1:06:40] It was 50.5. [1:06:41] It's now like 53.5.”
BAL 30, DET 38 — Combined 68; under 53.5 busts.
“70 yards hits the over for zay flowers just the traditional”
BAL 30, DET 38 — Zay Flowers: 13 receiving_yards vs over 70; busts. (Zay Flowers: 13 receiving_yards)
“the packers minus five if you can find it i grabbed it earlier i still see a minus five and a half at”
DAL 40, GB 40 — Green Bay Packers margin +0 vs line -5.5; busts.
“let's go right to the other one chargers minus five and a half at the giants”
NYG 21, LAC 18 — Los Angeles Chargers margin -3 vs line -5.5; busts.
“Give me the Panthers plus six against the Falcons at BetMGM.”
CAR 30, ATL 0 — Carolina Panthers margin +30 vs line +6; covers.
“Give me the jets J E T S plus seven at the bucks at draft Kings.”
TB 29, NYJ 27 — New York Jets margin -2 vs line +7; covers.
“Jets plus seven and a little nibble on the money line since 2018. [15:44] Oh, and two road dogs, 11 and 15 straight up.”
TB 29, NYJ 27 — New York Jets lost; moneyline busts.
“Give me the Texans plus two.”
JAX 17, HOU 10 — Houston Texans margin -7 vs line +2; busts.
“in the division. Plus 300 at FanDuel. I still like them in the division.”
Jacksonville won the AFC South at 13-4; Houston finished second (12-5), so the Texans division future lost.
“taking the bears bears plus one and a half against the cowboys at draft kings”
CHI 31, DAL 14 — Chicago Bears margin +17 vs line +1.5; covers.
“So I like Packers, Browns, under 41.5. [28:33] That one is dropping a bit, so I'd go ahead and grab it now.”
CLE 13, GB 10 — Combined 23; under 41.5 covers.
“There is a minus two and a half out there at ESPN bet.”
MIN 48, CIN 10 — Minnesota Vikings margin +38 vs line -2.5; covers.
“Carson loves to call his own number at the goal line. [38:32] That has been the staple time and again at NDSU. [38:35] We've seen it in the NFL. [38:36] He loves the QB draw. [38:38] Five to one. [38:39] Anytime touchdown at DraftKings.”
Carson Wentz threw TDs to Oliver and Hockenson but did not score himself in the Vikings' 48-10 Week 3 win over Cincinnati.
“So give me the Baker interception, because Jill would love this. We're getting plus odds on Baker [40:48] Mayfield to throw a pick, plus 105.”
Baker Mayfield threw no interceptions (19/29, 1 TD) in Tampa Bay's 29-27 Week 3 win over the Jets.
“We're playing Roma Dunes, a over four and a half receptions. [45:27] It's minus one, 22 at FanDuel.”
CHI 31, DAL 14 — Rome Odunze: 3 receptions vs over 4.5; busts. (Rome Odunze: 3 receptions)
“So give me the 20-plus rushing attempts at plus 125 at bat 365, and then 25 rushing attempts [48:36] is plus 550.”
PHI 33, LAR 26 — Saquon Barkley: 18 rushing_attempts vs over 19.5; busts. (Saquon Barkley: 18 rushing_attempts)
“I'm always pretty happy to have a missed playoffs ticket on a bottom five defense with”
Cincinnati finished 6-11, last in the AFC North and out of the playoffs, so Bengals-to-miss-playoffs won.
“So I going to go Raiders plus three and a half here”
LV 9, LAC 20 — Las Vegas Raiders margin -11 vs line +3.5; busts.
“Raiders plus six and a half at the Commanders.”
WSH 41, LV 24 — Las Vegas Raiders margin -17 vs line +6.5; busts.
“primetime parlay [1:13:31] chiefs ravens minus 106 at draft kings”
Parlay busts: Chiefs ML — won; Ravens ML — lost.
“Give me the Bears plus six and a half at the lines.”
DET 52, CHI 21 — Chicago Bears margin -31 vs line +6.5; busts.
“give me the Bears money [13:36] line plus 230.”
DET 52, CHI 21 — Chicago Bears lost; moneyline busts.
“It's 13 to one in the division at Caesars.”
The Bears won the NFC North in 2025, finishing 11-6 in first place.
“or that will be the official pick for the pod.”
MIN 6, ATL 22 — Minnesota Vikings margin -16 vs line -3.5; busts.
“Give me the Niners minus three.”
NO 21, SF 26 — San Francisco 49ers margin +5 vs line -3; covers.
“over rushing yards over 60 and a half at Caesars”
ARI 27, CAR 22 — James Conner: 34 rushing_yards vs over 60.5; busts. (James Conner: 34 rushing_yards)
“we're getting five to one at bat 365 on 100 yards. [24:33] Sign me up for that one.”
ARI 27, CAR 22 — James Conner: 34 rushing_yards vs over 100; busts. (James Conner: 34 rushing_yards)
“Give me Brees Hall, longest run, over 14 and a half yards at DraftKings.”
Hall carried 10 times for 29 yards with a long run of 12 in Buffalo's 30-10 win over NY; his longest run (12) fell short of the 14.5 line. (Breece Hall: 10 car, 29 yds, long 12)
“Hunter Henry over 31 and a half receiving yards”
MIA 27, NE 33 — Hunter Henry: 9 receiving_yards vs over 31.5; busts. (Hunter Henry: 9 receiving_yards)
“over three and a half receptions. Again, he's hit that eight of 10 games with Drake May.”
MIA 27, NE 33 — Hunter Henry: 1 receptions vs over 3.5; busts. (Hunter Henry: 1 receptions)
“we're gonna go with brenton strange [37:43] so that is your new jaguars tight end one these are identical lines to hunter henry over 31 and”
CIN 31, JAX 27 — Brenton Strange: 17 receiving_yards vs over 31.5; busts. (Brenton Strange: 17 receiving_yards)
“Tip Ryman, Cardinals tight end, anytime touchdown, 11-1 at bat 365.”
Tip Reiman did not score in the Cardinals' 27-22 win over Carolina.
“ravens division odds minus 135 at fan duel”
Pittsburgh won the 2025 AFC North at 10-7; the Ravens finished 8-9, so the Ravens-to-win-division ticket lost.
“and ravens most wins nine to one at draft kings”
The Ravens finished 8-9, nowhere near the league wins lead (Seahawks/Patriots/Broncos tied at 14-3), so Ravens most regular-season wins lost.
“Give me under 43 at bat 365”
NE 14, PIT 21 — Combined 35; under 43 covers.
“give me the Chiefs minus five [49:00] and a half at the Giants.”
NYG 9, KC 22 — Kansas City Chiefs margin +13 vs line -5.5; covers.
“So give me the Bears, plus one and a half.”
CHI 24, MIN 27 — Chicago Bears margin -3 vs line +1.5; busts.
“Bears minus 6.5 plus 250 on the outline.”
CHI 24, MIN 27 — Chicago Bears margin -3 vs line -6.5; busts.
“under 41 and a half at DraftKings.”
PIT 17, SEA 31 — Combined 48; under 41.5 busts.
“Broncos at Colts under 43”
IND 29, DEN 28 — Combined 57; under 43.5 busts.
“How could it be anything but the New York football giants?”
WSH 21, NYG 6 — New York Giants margin -15 vs line +6.5; busts.
“but first half play plus two and a half is the play”
LAR 14, HOU 9 — Houston Texans margin -5 vs line +2.5; busts.
“give me the Packers minus one and a half or anything under three if you got it and I think”
GB 27, DET 13 — Green Bay Packers margin +14 vs line -1.5; covers.
“We're on Bears Island, but the Packers are my favorite in the division.”
The Bears won the NFC North; the Packers did not (they lost to Chicago in the Wild Card round).
“i gonna play the ravens i gonna play the first”
BUF 41, BAL 40 — Baltimore Ravens lost; moneyline busts.
“so steelers jets under 38 and a half maybe i'll do the mineshaft”
NYJ 32, PIT 34 — Combined 66; under 38.5 busts.
“want yards i want receptions i want the whole thing with david and joku over 48 and a half receiving”
CLE 16, CIN 17 — David Njoku: 37 receiving_yards vs over 48.5; busts. (David Njoku: 37 receiving_yards)
“So give me over 59 and a half rushing yards and then a little slight escalator 59 and a half plus a touchdown at plus 323 at FanDuel”
SEA 13, SF 17 — Kenneth Walker III: 20 rushing_yards vs over 59.5; busts. (Kenneth Walker III: 20 rushing_yards)
“Over 70.5 receiving yards, Ladd McConkie.”
LAC 27, KC 21 — Ladd McConkey: 74 receiving_yards vs over 70.5; covers. (Ladd McConkey: 74 receiving_yards)
“Give me the Titans money line plus 350.”
DEN 20, TEN 12 — Tennessee Titans lost; moneyline busts.
“behind so alternate plays on miami minus six and a half plus 240 at bed mgm minus 13 and a half plus”
IND 33, MIA 8 — Miami Dolphins margin -25 vs line -6.5; busts.
“Give me the Packers minus two and a half.”
GB 27, WSH 18 — Green Bay Packers margin +9 vs line -2.5; covers.
“but just give me for a future's best bet, zero wins after five weeks. That's a fast future at DraftKings, plus 340.”
The Saints went 1-4 through five weeks (won their opener vs the Giants), so they had a win after five weeks.
“Giants, NFC seed under 14 and a half.”
The Giants finished 4-13, last in the NFC East and 15th in the NFC, worse than the 14.5 seed line (over).
“Here's the bet. 2-0 head to head against the Saints. Plus 165. The Saints are terrible. Just beat the Saints two times.”
The Saints swept the season series, beating Carolina 17-7 and 20-17, so the Panthers did not go 2-0.
“my best bet on the Cowboys I'm leaning all the way in their fifth worst in my power ranks zero wins in September plus 750 at ESPN”
The Cowboys won at least one September game (40-37 OT over the Giants), so they were not winless in September.
“Jets touchdown leader Braylon Allen 14 at bet 365 Goal line carries I think they going to go to Braylon Allen”
Breece Hall led the Jets in touchdowns (5); Braelon Allen missed 13 games with an MCL injury and was not the team leader.
“My best bet here is Travis Hunter, Offensive Rookie of the Year. Offensive, not defensive, 12-1.”
Tetairoa McMillan won 2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year; Travis Hunter did not win it.
“Chiefs in first Raiders in second is 14 to one at DraftKings”
The AFC West finished Broncos 1st, Chargers 2nd, Chiefs 3rd (6-11), not Chiefs first and Raiders second.
“The Steelers get eliminated in the wildcard round. It's plus 290”
Steelers lost 30-6 to the Texans in the Wild Card round, exactly the stage of elimination bet.
“Four wins in September at ESPN Bet. It's eight to one odds.”
The Patriots went 2-2 in September 2025, not 4-0.
“bears island worst to first division winner we get a better number now plus 625 thanks micah parsons let's be honest not thanks micah parsons”
The Bears won the NFC North as the No. 2 NFC seed in 2025.
“Bills Patriots top two in the AFC East. This is not an in order. This is just”
The Patriots (14-3) and Bills (12-5) finished first and second in the AFC East.
“Give me Houston in the division. AFC South winners plus odds. What are we doing? Plus 115 at FanDuel. I'm going multi-units on that.”
The Jaguars (13-4) won the AFC South; the Texans finished 12-5 in second place.
“but I'm going to take Niners' most wins in the NFL, 13-1 at DraftKings.”
The 49ers finished 12-5; Seattle led the NFL with 14 regular-season wins.
“Patriots exact outcome. First in the division, Bill second. That's what I like at Caesars at plus 750.”
Patriots finished 1st (14-3) and Bills 2nd (12-5) in the AFC East, matching the exact outcome.
“So I like the Texans, 6-0 in the division, 13-1.”
The Texans went 4-2 in the AFC South, not 6-0 (the Jaguars went 4-0 in division play).
“And I think it's this, second place in the division, plus 750 at DraftKings.”
The Raiders finished 4th (3-14) in the AFC West, not 2nd; the Chargers were 2nd.
“So one pick one long shot Brian Callahan of the Titans 18 to one So second year coach probably that would feel like a pretty short leash”
Brian Callahan was the first NFL head coach fired in 2025, dismissed by the Titans after a 1-5 start.
“gave me the goal line back on a run-heavy offense, Braylon Allen, 14-1. I think he's the touchdown guy, not Brees Hall”
Braelon Allen missed the final 13 games with an MCL injury; Breece Hall led the Jets in TDs.
“So I love that one here 14 to 1”
Jahmyr Gibbs led the Lions with 18 TDs; David Montgomery had only 8.
“my only yards one here is AJ Brown, receiving yards leader. It's 28 to one at Caesars.”
Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the NFL in receiving yards (1,793) in 2025; A.J. Brown was not the leader.
“The Browns are plus 340 to be winless after five games. Here's who the Browns”
The Browns went 1-4 through five games (beat Green Bay 13-10 in Week 4), so they were not winless.
“four for that one, but it's plus 450. So maybe the Giants are giving me a little extra boost in there.”
The Saints went 1-4 through five games (beat the Giants in the opener), so they were not winless after five.
“so 13 to 1 very easy choice my long shot here is my number five team”
49ers finished 12-5; best record was 14-3 (Seahawks/Patriots/Broncos). (49ers 12-5, NFC West runner-up.)
“the Houston Texans, 45 to one, both at DraftKings.”
Texans finished 12-5; best record was 14-3. (Texans 12-5, AFC South runner-up to Jaguars 13-4.)
“It's just a 150 to one long shot on the Washington”
Commanders finished 5-12; worst record was 3-14. (Washington 5-12, not the league's worst record.)
“Give me the Patriots, who I think have a very much higher floor this year.”
Patriots started 2-2; last undefeated teams were Bills/Eagles (both lost Week 5). (Patriots lost Week 1 and Week 3.)
“You can also just play 4-0. First game, four games, 4-0 at plus”
Patriots started 2-2, not 4-0 (lost Week 1 to Raiders, Week 3 to Steelers). (NE 2-2 after four games.)
“So Saints last winless team, plus 850 at ESPN.”
Saints got first win Week 5; Jets were last winless team (first win Week 8). (Saints 1-3 after Week 5 win over Giants.)
“I like Saints as the 16 seed, so worst team in the NFC, plus 225.”
Saints finished 6-11; worst NFC team (16 seed) was Cardinals 3-14. (Saints 6-11.)
“You can do that for Browns and the AFC, plus 225. [26:08] Give me both of them.”
Browns finished 5-12; worst AFC team (16 seed) was 3-14 (Jets/Titans/Raiders). (Browns 5-12, not worst in AFC.)
“if you want a bet that's going to win brown's worst in the division minus 300 at draft kings”
Browns finished 5-12, worst record in AFC North. (AFC North: Steelers 10-7, Ravens 8-9, Bengals 6-11, Browns 5-12.)
“you could actually win your 50 to one bucks last winless bet.”
Buccaneers won early and finished 8-9; Jets were last winless team (first win Week 8). (Tampa Bay 8-9.)
“So the Ravens 8 to 1 at ESPN. Don't need to make the case on the Ravens.”
Rams led NFL in scoring (518 pts); Ravens did not lead points scored. (Rams most points; Ravens finished 8-9.)
“It's the Bears, 25-1 at Caesars.”
Rams led NFL in scoring (518 pts); Bears did not lead points scored. (Bears finished 11-6.)
“give me the browns plus 375 caesars”
Raiders scored the fewest points in 2025 (241); Browns were 2nd-fewest at 279, so the Browns least-points future loses. (Browns 279 points; Raiders led with 241)
“Patriots to make the playoffs plus 154.”
Patriots made the 2025-26 playoffs as the AFC No. 2 seed (and reached Super Bowl LX). (AFC No. 2 seed)
“make the playoffs is minus 130 at Caesars. What are we doing? The Packers aren't missing the”
Packers made the 2025-26 playoffs as the NFC No. 7 seed. (NFC No. 7 seed)
“now of course ben johnson's bears plus 195 at caesars”
Bears made the 2025-26 playoffs as the NFC No. 2 seed. (NFC No. 2 seed)
“So commanders to miss plus 130.”
Commanders missed the 2025-26 playoffs, so the miss-playoffs bet wins. (Not among the 14 playoff teams)
“Lions to miss at plus 165 at Caesars.”
Lions missed the 2025-26 playoffs, so the miss-playoffs bet wins. (Not among the 14 playoff teams)
“So give me the exact outcome of Ravens over Niners at DraftKings 70-1.”
Super Bowl LX was Seahawks 29, Patriots 13; neither Ravens nor 49ers reached it, so the exact-outcome bet loses. (Seahawks beat Patriots in SB LX)
“Ravens over Texans in the conference championship is 30 to 1 that's my bet”
AFC Championship was Patriots 10, Broncos 7 (not Ravens over Texans), so the exact-outcome bet loses. (AFC title game: Patriots beat Broncos)
“but the Niners to beat them, that's 50 to one.”
NFC Championship was Seahawks 31, Rams 27 (not 49ers over Packers), so the exact-outcome bet loses. (NFC title game: Seahawks beat Rams)
“long shot for me, Houston Texans 40 to 1.”
Seahawks won Super Bowl LX; Texans did not win it, future busts. (Seahawks def. Patriots 29-13 in Super Bowl LX)
“so we're starting with lamar plus 550 a full unit bet on that”
Matthew Stafford won 2025 NFL MVP; Lamar Jackson did not. (Stafford edged Drake Maye 24-23 votes)
“brock [1:15:41] purdy quarter unit on 30 to 1 those are the best bets for mvp”
Matthew Stafford won 2025 NFL MVP; Brock Purdy did not. (Stafford (LAR) won MVP)
“So I love Trent Williams, 11-1, full unit [11:44] bat on him.”
Joe Thuney won 2025 Protector of the Year; Trent Williams did not. (Inaugural Protector of the Year went to Bears' Joe Thuney.)
“And then I mentioned Tooney and Creed Humphrey, quarter unit as long shots on those two.”
Joe Thuney won the inaugural 2025 Protector of the Year award. (Bears OL Joe Thuney named Protector of the Year at NFL Honors.)
“And then I mentioned Tooney and Creed Humphrey, quarter unit as long shots on those two.”
Joe Thuney won 2025 Protector of the Year; Creed Humphrey did not. (Protector of the Year went to Joe Thuney.)
“so Tua is my bat here just a half unit on it”
Christian McCaffrey won 2025 Comeback Player of the Year; Tua did not. (49ers RB McCaffrey named AP Comeback Player of the Year.)
“and then just a tiny long shot I know it's a defender but 150 to one Dre Greenlaw”
Christian McCaffrey won 2025 Comeback Player of the Year; Dre Greenlaw did not. (McCaffrey won; Aidan Hutchinson runner-up.)
“my first bet for coach of the year is Brian Schottenheimer and the [31:44] Dallas Cowboys staff”
Mike Vrabel won 2025 NFL Coach of the Year; Schottenheimer did not. (Vrabel led Patriots' turnaround)
“I genuinely love D Ryans 65 to one”
Mike Vrabel won 2025 NFL Coach of the Year; DeMeco Ryans did not. (Vrabel (NE) won COY)
“so i'll go a half unit on zach robinson 60 to 1”
Josh McDaniels won 2025 Assistant Coach of the Year; Zac Robinson did not. (McDaniels (NE OC) won)
“and then a quarter unit sprinkle [43:30] on cliff and minter at their long odds”
Josh McDaniels won 2025 Assistant Coach of the Year; Kliff Kingsbury did not. (McDaniels (NE OC) won)
“and then a quarter unit sprinkle [43:30] on cliff and minter at their long odds”
Josh McDaniels won 2025 Assistant Coach of the Year; Jesse Minter did not. (McDaniels (NE OC) won)
“So not a full unit, probably quarter or half on each, but Michael Williams 14-1,”
Carson Schwesinger won 2025 Defensive Rookie of the Year; Mykel Williams did not. (Schwesinger (CLE LB) won DROY)
“Carson Schwestinger 35 to 1”
Carson Schwesinger won 2025 Defensive Rookie of the Year. (Browns LB won DROY)
“so [18:49] he's my pick here full unit at 12 to 1”
Tetairoa McMillan won 2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year; Travis Hunter did not. (McMillan (CAR WR) won OROY)
“So those three running backs, all in the like 30 to 40 range, quarter unit on each one.”
Tetairoa McMillan won 2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year; RJ Harvey did not. (McMillan (CAR WR) won OROY)
“So those three running backs, all in the like 30 to 40 range, quarter unit on each one.”
Tetairoa McMillan won 2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year; Kaleb Johnson did not. (McMillan (CAR WR) won OROY)
“Ja'Cory Krosky Merritt 34 to 1”
Tetairoa McMillan won 2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year; Jacory Croskey-Merritt did not. (McMillan (CAR WR) won OROY)
“Josh Simmons, [21:09] 500 to one offensive rookie of the year.”
Tetairoa McMillan won 2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year; Josh Simmons did not. (McMillan (CAR WR) won OROY)
“So I will play McCaffrey,”
Jaxon Smith-Njigba won 2025 Offensive Player of the Year; Christian McCaffrey did not. (JSN led NFL with 1,793 rec yds)
“A.J. Brown, 40-1.”
Jaxon Smith-Njigba won 2025 Offensive Player of the Year; A.J. Brown did not. (JSN (SEA WR) won OPOY)
“Next 40-1 guy, Brian Thomas.”
Jaxon Smith-Njigba won 2025 Offensive Player of the Year; Brian Thomas Jr. did not. (JSN (SEA WR) won OPOY)
“Tyreek Hill, 40 to 1.”
Jaxon Smith-Njigba won 2025 Offensive Player of the Year; Tyreek Hill did not. (JSN (SEA WR) won OPOY)
“multi-unit bet Micah Parsons 8-1 my favorite bet on the podcast”
Myles Garrett won 2025 Defensive Player of the Year; Micah Parsons did not. (Garrett broke season sack record)
“Tier number one, Bears Island.”
Bears won the 2025 NFC North. (Chicago 11-6, first NFC North title since 2018.)
“about since february when honestly this was my first bet of the season 49ers super bowl ticket”
Seahawks won Super Bowl LX; 49ers did not. (San Francisco did not win the Super Bowl.)
“Yes. They're my one Super Bowl ticket right now.”
The Seahawks won Super Bowl LX; the 49ers lost in the Divisional Round, so the futures lost.
“And Stafford is a 50 to one MVP ticket is a ticket worth investing in for once.”
Matthew Stafford won 2025 NFL MVP, so the 50-1 ticket cashed.
“nfc 50 to 1 was an insane number i still think 35 to 1 is a bad number and worth betting if you have”
Matthew Stafford won the 2025 NFL MVP at NFL Honors, edging Drake Maye in the closest vote since 2003. (Stafford 366 pts to Maye's 361; led NFL in passing yds (4,707) & TDs (46))
“Jace Richardson, to be the number 10 pick, I bet it in the action app last night, 40 to one odds.”
In the 2025 NBA Draft, Jase Richardson was selected No. 25 overall by the Magic (No. 10 went to Khaman Maluach), so the No. 10 pick bet lost.
“but if the Rams are good, Matthew Stafford, 50 to one, I think is a really interesting MVP”
Matthew Stafford won 2025 NFL MVP, leading the league in passing yards and touchdowns, so the bet cashed.
“Trevor Lawrence 50 to one.”
Matthew Stafford won 2025 NFL MVP, so Trevor Lawrence lost.
“I think next year's Eagles are the San Francisco 49ers. That is my first futures bet, 17-1. You can play that at Bat Rivers.”
Seahawks won Super Bowl LX over the Patriots; 49ers did not win it. (Seattle def. New England 29-13)
“Chiefs minus one, one and a half if you [21:19] need to.”
PHI 40, KC 22 — Kansas City Chiefs margin -18 vs line -1.5; busts.
“So give me the Chiefs. Give me Patrick Mahomes. Give me the [23:18] Chiefs to win from behind plus 175.”
PHI 40, KC 22 — Kansas City Chiefs lost; moneyline busts.
“the prop i actually like which is a huge gulp before you say [32:08] it is saquon under 58 and a half rushing yards in the first half”
PHI 40, KC 22 — Saquon Barkley: 57 rushing_yards vs under 58.5; covers. (Saquon Barkley: 57 rushing_yards)
“Hurts, five plus rush yards in each quarter.”
Jalen Hurts had at least 5 rushing yards in every quarter of Super Bowl LIX (Q1: 15, Q2: 10, Q3: 30, Q4: 17), totaling his record 72 rushing yards. (Hurts rushing by quarter: Q1 15, Q2 10, Q3 30, Q4 17 (all ≥5))
“Over five and a half receptions, Xavier Worthy, plus 120.”
PHI 40, KC 22 — Xavier Worthy: 8 receptions vs over 5.5; covers. (Xavier Worthy: 8 receptions)
“Anytime touchdown plus 165 Again he scored four of the last five games”
Xavier Worthy scored 2 receiving TDs. (Worthy 8 rec, 157 yds, 2 TD)
“Over five and a half catches [43:21] under 21 and a half on the longest reception. It's plus 411.”
Worthy had 8 catches (over 5.5) but a 50-yard long reception (over 21.5), so the parlay lost. (Worthy 8 rec, long reception 50 yds)
“Jalen Hurts, you just made the whole case for me. [1:08:01] Minus 105, minus 110.”
Hurts scored a rushing TD (tush push), so anytime TD hit. (Hurts 1 rush TD)
“Two or more touchdowns for Jalen, plus 625. [1:08:43] Quick slip for both of those.”
Hurts scored only 1 rushing TD (his other TDs were passing), short of 2+ rushing/receiving TDs. (Hurts 1 rush TD, 2 pass TD)
“if you're giving me plus 140 on Travis Kelsey to score a touchdown, [1:08:56] I'm just taking it.”
Travis Kelce did not score (4 rec, 39 yds, 0 TD). (Kelce 4 rec, 39 yds, 0 TD)
“but plus 425 on first Chiefs touchdown 14 to 1 first Chiefs touchdown and a win for [1:09:41] Travis Kelsey”
Worthy scored the first Chiefs TD (not Kelce), and the Chiefs lost. (First Chiefs TD: Worthy; Chiefs lost 22-40)
“Eagles successful fourth down conversion. [1:11:45] Come on. [1:11:46] We all know the Eagles are going to convert a fourth down.”
Eagles went 0-for-1 on 4th down (lone attempt negated by an OPI penalty). (Eagles 4th down: 0/1)
“the stats Eagles to win the coin toss plus 100”
Chiefs won the coin toss and deferred; Eagles did not win it. (Coin toss: Chiefs won, deferred)
“And also over two and a half field goals.”
PHI 40, KC 22 — Combined 62; over 2.5 covers.
“Casey under team rushing yards. I found it at 117 and a half.”
Chiefs had just 25 team rushing yards in Super Bowl LIX, well under 117.5. (Chiefs 25 rushing yards in 40-22 loss to Eagles)
“I took Noah Gray under longest reception at 10 and a half.”
Noah Gray caught 1 pass for 2 yards; longest reception 2 yards, under 10.5. (Noah Gray 1 rec, 2 yds (long 2))
“first turnover in the game is a turnover on downs which is plus [1:14:53] 350”
First turnover in Super Bowl LIX was a Jalen Hurts interception, not a turnover on downs. (First TO: Hurts INT early Q2)
“The chiefs defense to score touchdown in a chiefs win is plus nine fifty,”
The Chiefs lost Super Bowl LIX 40-22, so a Chiefs defensive touchdown in a Chiefs win could not happen.
“or you can do eagles. Same thing. Eagles defense touchdown and eagles win plus a thousand.”
Cooper DeJean returned a Mahomes interception 38 yards for a touchdown and the Eagles won 40-22, so an Eagles defensive TD in an Eagles win hit at +1000.
“So over five and a half reception, there's still plus money for Xavier Worthy. That's gone up in the playoffs, but I think it's still a good price.”
PHI 40, KC 22 — Xavier Worthy: 8 receptions vs over 5.5; covers. (Xavier Worthy: 8 receptions)
“I love the anytime touchdown bet for the last five. We know he's gonna run the ball a time or two.”
Xavier Worthy caught two touchdowns (24 and 50 yards) in Super Bowl LIX, cashing the anytime touchdown.
“the way I would bet MVP here, even though I'm betting Chiefs win the Super Bowl, I think Jalen Hurts MVP is the right play.”
Jalen Hurts was named Super Bowl LIX MVP after the Eagles' 40-22 win, cashing the +380 ticket.
“20 to one niners is my first Super Bowl pick for next season.”
This next-season (Super Bowl LX) 49ers ticket lost: San Francisco was routed 41-6 by Seattle in the NFC Divisional round and the Seahawks won Super Bowl LX 29-13.
“over 45 and a half receiving yards on the game and really this is actually kind of a recycled”
PHI 40, KC 22 — Dallas Goedert: 27 receiving_yards vs over 45.5; busts. (Dallas Goedert: 27 receiving_yards)
“I like Terry McLaurin to find the end zone again.”
Terry McLaurin caught a 36-yard TD from Jayden Daniels in Commanders' 55-23 loss. (McLaurin 36-yd receiving TD)
“of sets up nicely for us so main bets again aj brown over 60 and a half receiving yards 90 plus”
PHI 55, WSH 23 — A.J. Brown: 96 receiving_yards vs over 60.5; covers. (A.J. Brown: 96 receiving_yards)
“So 90 plus for Aja Brown is 3-1. He's at 89 yards or more,”
PHI 55, WSH 23 — A.J. Brown: 96 receiving_yards vs over 90; covers. (A.J. Brown: 96 receiving_yards)
“for them so chiefs minus one and a half that is the pick you can get that in the quick slip”
KC 32, BUF 29 — Kansas City Chiefs margin +3 vs line -1.5; covers.
“from behind at plus 195 i love that that is my favorite way to bet the chiefs in this game just”
KC 32, BUF 29 — Kansas City Chiefs won; moneyline covers.
“Both teams will score in the fourth quarter all but one of eight matchups here.”
Both teams scored in Q4 of AFC Championship (Bills 7, Chiefs 11 in the fourth). (Q4: Bills 7, Chiefs 11)
“either team to win by six or less, basically, plus 118. That has been another go-to play for me”
Chiefs beat Bills 32-29 (a 3-point margin) in the AFC Championship; neither team won by 7 or more, so the +6.5 bet that neither team wins by 7+ won. (Final: Kansas City Chiefs 32, Buffalo Bills 29)
“the standard line is over 47 and a half yards i'll play that one”
KC 32, BUF 29 — Josh Allen: 39 rushing_yards vs over 47.5; busts. (Josh Allen: 39 rushing_yards)
“and then 70 plus yards is plus 320”
KC 32, BUF 29 — Josh Allen: 39 rushing_yards vs over 70; busts. (Josh Allen: 39 rushing_yards)
“plus 100 for a Josh Anytime touchdown,”
Josh Allen had 0 rushing/receiving TDs (2 passing TDs only); anytime-TD counts rush/rec only. (Allen 11 car, 39 yds, 0 rush TD)
“Two touchdowns is plus 700.”
Josh Allen had 0 rushing/receiving TDs in AFC Championship, well under 2+. (Allen 0 rush/rec TD)
“We get plus 135 still.”
Travis Kelce had 0 TDs (2 catches, 19 yds) in Chiefs' 32-29 AFC Championship win. (Kelce 2 rec, 19 yds, 0 TD)
“We bet this at open 65.5, still 67.5.”
KC 32, BUF 29 — Travis Kelce: 19 receiving_yards vs over 67.5; busts. (Travis Kelce: 19 receiving_yards)
“And then we'll take the escalator to 90-plus this week at plus 230.”
KC 32, BUF 29 — Travis Kelce: 19 receiving_yards vs over 90; busts. (Travis Kelce: 19 receiving_yards)
“Give me Khalil Shakir over five and a half receptions.”
KC 32, BUF 29 — Khalil Shakir: 6 receptions vs over 5.5; covers. (Khalil Shakir: 6 receptions)
“And then I do like seven plus catches at plus 260.”
KC 32, BUF 29 — Khalil Shakir: 6 receptions vs over 7; busts. (Khalil Shakir: 6 receptions)
“Now, an article up from early in the week, just bet Super Bowl futures for Chiefs.”
Eagles beat Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX; Chiefs future busts. (Final: Eagles 40, Chiefs 22)
“So I'm on Chiefs minus one and a half.”
KC 32, BUF 29 — Kansas City Chiefs margin +3 vs line -1.5; covers.
“Xavier Worthy over four and a half catches, minus 135.”
KC 32, BUF 29 — Xavier Worthy: 6 receptions vs over 4.5; covers. (Xavier Worthy: 6 receptions)
“Travis Kelsey, I'm going receiving yards on him.”
KC 32, BUF 29 — Travis Kelce: 19 receiving_yards vs over 65.5; busts. (Travis Kelce: 19 receiving_yards)
“Texans plus eight and a half. That's the pick here.”
KC 23, HOU 14 — Houston Texans margin -9 vs line +8.5; busts.
“So give me the Texans 8.5 with the Chiefs' money line. Together, that's plus 209.”
Parlay busts: Texans +8.5 +8.5 — lost; Chiefs ML — won.
“so over four and a half catches at the baseline minus 136 i think that worth the play given that he is averaging seven catches a game this last stretch”
KC 23, HOU 14 — Xavier Worthy: 5 receptions vs over 4.5; covers. (Xavier Worthy: 5 receptions)
“So I'm on the touchdowns. You can get the touchdown for Travis Kelsey, plus 160. That is insulting.”
Travis Kelce caught an 11-yard TD from Mahomes in Chiefs' 23-14 divisional win. (Kelce 11-yd receiving TD)
“First Chiefs touchdown, plus 475. You can get this one with a quick slip.”
First Chiefs TD was Kareem Hunt's 1-yard rush in Q2, not Kelce (Kelce scored later in Q4). (First Chiefs TD: Kareem Hunt rush)
“So I'm on commanders plus nine and a half.”
DET 31, WSH 45 — Washington Commanders margin +14 vs line +9.5; covers.
“so give me austin eckler 40 receiving yards is three to one 50 receiving yards plus 525 both of those in the quick slip”
DET 31, WSH 45 — Austin Ekeler: 41 receiving_yards vs over 40; covers. (Austin Ekeler: 41 receiving_yards)
“give me the eagles minus six on the eagles the only”
PHI 28, LAR 22 — Philadelphia Eagles margin +6 vs line -6; pushes.
“just give me the hurts anytime touchdown minus 1 to 15 we got that quick slip in there for you”
Jalen Hurts scored a 44-yard rushing TD in Eagles' 28-22 divisional win over Rams. (Hurts 44-yd rushing TD)
“So Ravens minus one.”
BUF 27, BAL 25 — Baltimore Ravens margin -2 vs line -1; busts.
“I will also play Ravens minus six and a half, plus 215.”
BUF 27, BAL 25 — Baltimore Ravens margin -2 vs line -6.5; busts.
“So Justice Hill, over 20 and a half receiving yards. That's the main bet.”
BUF 27, BAL 25 — Justice Hill: 7 receiving_yards vs over 20.5; busts. (Justice Hill: 7 receiving_yards)
“Eagles minus six and a half is when I actually bet”
PHI 55, WSH 23 — Philadelphia Eagles margin +32 vs line -6.5; covers.
“[1:15:43] his games. So I'm taking the Puka escalator, not super all the way to the top, but I grabbed the”
LAR 27, MIN 9 — Puka Nacua: 44 receiving_yards vs over 91.5; busts. (Puka Nacua: 44 receiving_yards)
“[1:15:58] If you want to just skip the 91 half and go straight to 100,”
LAR 27, MIN 9 — Puka Nacua: 44 receiving_yards vs over 100; busts. (Puka Nacua: 44 receiving_yards)
“[1:17:04] Ravens plus one and a half, plus two if it's still out there.”
BUF 27, BAL 25 — Baltimore Ravens margin -2 vs line +1.5; busts.
“the one that's a little bit more [5:19] than that eagles to advance further than the bills is plus 145”
Eagles won the Super Bowl; Bills lost the AFC Championship, so Eagles advanced further. (Eagles SB champ; Bills out at AFC title game)
“I think Amon Ross St. Brown receiving yards plus 950 is a really nice way to invest in the Lions.”
Amon-Ra St. Brown did not lead the playoffs in receiving yards; Lions lost in the divisional round after only two games. (St. Brown ~247 playoff rec yds (110 WC + 137 Div) over two games)
“I was on Buffalo minus seven and a half. I still [39:11] love this at minus eight and a half. This is just a mismatch in every way.”
BUF 31, DEN 7 — Buffalo Bills margin +24 vs line -8.5; covers.
“Minus 15.5 is plus 215. [42:01] That's basically shooting for that kind of average wildcard round margin of victory.”
BUF 31, DEN 7 — Buffalo Bills margin +24 vs line -15.5; covers.
“And the big one, minus 31.5, the ultimate Bo Nix disrespect, plus 1,300 for Buffalo. [42:17] I think the Bills roll.”
BUF 31, DEN 7 — Buffalo Bills margin +24 vs line -31.5; busts.
“Here's the two plays. [44:28] 30 yards or more receiving plus 320. 50 yards or more is 12 to 1.”
BUF 31, DEN 7 — Javonte Williams: 14 receiving_yards vs over 30; busts. (Javonte Williams: 14 receiving_yards)
“so here's the bet Ravens [35:11] minus nine and a half and then we're taking the Ravens Ravens escalator now”
BAL 28, PIT 14 — Baltimore Ravens margin +14 vs line -9.5; covers.
“escalator is Ravens minus 15 and a half is plus 190 minus 20 and a half plus 342 and [36:34] all the way to the top minus 27 and a half, a 28 point Ravens win plus 800.”
BAL 28, PIT 14 — Baltimore Ravens margin +14 vs line -15.5; busts.
“So plus 350 for Derrick Henry first touchdown if you're into the [38:09] touchdown bets.”
Derrick Henry was not the first TD scorer; Lamar Jackson's 15-yd pass to Rashod Bateman opened the scoring. (Henry's first TD (8-yd run) came later; finished 2 rush TDs)
“So receiving yards gave me the over 11 and a half. He's got at least nine receiving yards, [53:45] 11 out of 16 games”
PHI 22, GB 10 — Saquon Barkley: 4 receiving_yards vs over 11.5; busts. (Saquon Barkley: 4 receiving_yards)
“So over 59 and a half, I got a huge margin for error in there rather than just one catch either [55:47] away.”
PHI 22, GB 10 — DeVonta Smith: 55 receiving_yards vs over 59.5; busts. (DeVonta Smith: 55 receiving_yards)
“[56:37] it's a good matchup for him. No direct escalator on him, but over 43 and a half yards for him.”
PHI 22, GB 10 — Jayden Reed: 46 receiving_yards vs over 43.5; covers. (Jayden Reed: 46 receiving_yards)
“[1:03:10] To me, this is just the best trend spot of the weekend. So bucks minus three. And because I love”
TB 20, WSH 23 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers margin -3 vs line -3; busts.
“I'll take the over 48 and a half rushing yards. [1:06:18] I think that's about the right line, but I think you can do that. [1:06:20] That's at FanDuel minus 114.”
TB 20, WSH 23 — Jayden Daniels: 36 rushing_yards vs over 48.5; busts. (Jayden Daniels: 36 rushing_yards)
“[1:06:34] Memory did that twice in the first matchup, plus 185 on the touchdown.”
Jayden Daniels rushed for two TDs vs Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round; anytime TD cashes. (16 carries, 88 rush yds, 2 rushing TD)
“[5:13] Plus 600, at most books, they're 6-1.”
Ravens lost in the divisional round to Buffalo; Eagles won Super Bowl LIX. (Bills 27, Ravens 25 (Divisional))
“I like the Eagles plus 350 to win the NFC. [11:03] And I'll talk about why NFC and not just a Super Bowl bet here.”
Eagles won the NFC, beating Washington 55-23 in the NFC Championship. (Eagles 55, Commanders 23)
“Matthew Stafford is 66-1 [19:01] to win Super Bowl MVP. [19:03] Now the Rams are 35-1 to win the Super Bowl at most books, and that's really the entire [19:08] bet for me.”
Jalen Hurts won Super Bowl LIX MVP; Stafford's Rams lost in the divisional round. (Hurts named MVP in Eagles' 40-22 win)
“[22:10] the other quarterback for me that i will play is jordan love 36 to 1 odds and again very similar”
Jalen Hurts won Super Bowl LIX MVP; Jordan Love's Packers lost in the Wild Card round. (Hurts named MVP in Eagles' 40-22 win)
“the running back that I love here is [26:02] actually what prompted me to want to write about the MVPs probably no surprise I love Derek Henry [26:06] here 45 to 1”
Jalen Hurts won Super Bowl LIX MVP; Derrick Henry's Ravens lost in the divisional round. (Hurts named MVP in Eagles' 40-22 win)
“[28:35] Probably my favorite pick out of all these is Amon Ra, St. Brown, 75 to one.”
Jalen Hurts won Super Bowl LIX MVP; Amon-Ra St. Brown's Lions lost in the divisional round. (Hurts named MVP in Eagles' 40-22 win)
“And then a similar name, A.J. [30:00] 100-1 still at one book. The Eagles at 7-1. That's just a way off.”
Jalen Hurts won Super Bowl LIX MVP, not A.J. Brown. (Hurts named MVP in Eagles' 40-22 win)
“[24:20] cj stroud is 150 to one again i have to believe if you like the texans stroud is the better bet”
Jalen Hurts won Super Bowl LIX MVP; C.J. Stroud's Texans lost in the divisional round. (Hurts named MVP in Eagles' 40-22 win)
“my one defender I bet is Cal Hamilton 1 to 1 He only 0 of all Ravens Super Bowl winners He their defensive weapon”
Jalen Hurts won Super Bowl LIX MVP; Kyle Hamilton's Ravens lost in the divisional round. (Hurts named MVP in Eagles' 40-22 win)
“Yeah, I love the Bills. [1:20:29] here. I got Bills minus 7.5. I think it's 8, 8.5 now. Kind of a dead zone there, so I don't really [1:20:35] mind it. Just get it before it gets... It's going to keep rising”
BUF 31, DEN 7 — Buffalo Bills margin +24 vs line -7.5; covers.
“yeah i got chargers texans under 44 and a half we'll get to the number in a second it's already [1:23:48] falling a little bit but let me make the case first”
HOU 32, LAC 12 — Combined 44; under 44.5 covers.
“give me the chargers minus four and a half in new england”
NE 7, LAC 40 — Los Angeles Chargers margin +33 vs line -4.5; covers.
“give me the Colts, give me the Dolphins, [1:02:48] and more importantly, give me the teams they're playing against. So Colts minus 7.5 [1:02:53] at the Giants. We're going to tease that down to one and a half, basically just win, [1:02:57] please not by one point. And the Dolphins, minus six at the Browns. We'll tease that down to a [1:03:02] pick them.”
Parlay busts: Colts teased to -1.5 -1.5 — lost; Dolphins teased to pick'em 0 — won.
“I'm going to take Rams minus 3, and we'll go a little escalator here that I'll get into.”
NYJ 9, LAR 19 — Los Angeles Rams margin +10 vs line -3; covers.
“I'd rather take just the touchdown [30:34] minus 130 again he's done that seven of nine games with T Higgins out there I like that number”
Ja'Marr Chase scored a 32-yard receiving TD vs the Browns in Week 16; anytime TD cashes. (6 rec, 97 yds, 1 receiving TD in Bengals' 24-6 win)
“Lions first half minus three and a half points.”
CHI 17, DET 34 — Detroit Lions margin +17 vs line -3.5; covers.
“Bill's second half, minus six and a half.”
BUF 24, NE 21 — Buffalo Bills margin +3 vs line -6.5; busts.
“give me Dallas plus four”
DAL 26, TB 24 — Dallas Cowboys margin +2 vs line +4; covers.
“So give me the under 42 and a half.”
IND 38, TEN 30 — Combined 68; under 42.5 busts.
“Yeah, we'll go Eagles, Commanders under 45 and a half.”
WSH 36, PHI 33 — Combined 69; under 45.5 busts.
“viking seahawks under 42 [46:06] and a half”
SEA 24, MIN 27 — Combined 51; under 42.5 busts.
“I just wanted James Conner rushing over.”
James Conner rushed for 117 yards (1 TD) against Carolina in Week 16, comfortably clearing the sub-75 rushing yards line referenced. (Conner: 117 rush yds, 1 TD)
“it's another division under cowboys eagles give me the under 45 and a half”
PHI 41, DAL 7 — Combined 48; under 45.5 busts.
“Give me the Steelers plus two and a half at home.”
PIT 10, KC 29 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -19 vs line +2.5; busts.
“i like the ravens minus two and a half at the texans come on we already knew”
HOU 2, BAL 31 — Baltimore Ravens margin +29 vs line -2.5; covers.
“The one bet I like I put in the app, Young-Way Koo over one and a half field goals.”
Younghoe Koo made 2 field goals vs Raiders on MNF, clearing 1.5. (Koo 2/3 FG (40, 48) in 15-9 win)
“I bet the under on this one already. We talked about this, I think, a week ago. [54:22] So that's my pick here. Under 43.5.”
MIN 30, CHI 12 — Combined 42; under 43.5 covers.
“Desmond Ritter plus 450. [56:18] to score a touchdown.”
Desmond Ridder threw a passing TD but did not rush/receive a TD vs Falcons; passing TDs don't count. (Ridder 1 pass TD, 2 INT, 0 rushing TD)
“Steelers plus six and a half under 46 and a half on the game.”
BAL 34, PIT 17 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -17 vs line +6.5; busts.
“Steelers plus six and a half under 46 and a half on the game.”
BAL 34, PIT 17 — Combined 51; under 46.5 busts.
“I'm taking Texans first half minus half a point. [27:40] So basically it's the Texans first half money line.”
HOU 20, MIA 12 — Houston Texans margin +8 vs line -0.5; covers.
“Give me the Eagles, minus five against the Steelers.”
PHI 27, PIT 13 — Philadelphia Eagles margin +14 vs line -5; covers.
“give me the Seahawks Seahawks plus three hopefully if you can”
SEA 13, GB 30 — Seattle Seahawks margin -17 vs line +3; busts.
“give me the Chargers minus three against the Bucs.”
LAC 17, TB 40 — Los Angeles Chargers margin -23 vs line -3; busts.
“But main play here is a touchdown. [43:31] Minus 120 for the anytime touchdown.”
Brian Robinson Jr did not score in Commanders' 20-19 win at Saints (TDs by McLaurin x2). (Robinson 0 TD)
“give me the new york football jets”
JAX 25, NYJ 32 — New York Jets margin +7 vs line -3; covers.
“Give me the Dallas Cowboys plus three.”
CAR 14, DAL 30 — Dallas Cowboys margin +16 vs line +3; covers.
“For Giants Moneyline plus 980, home against the Baltimore Ravens.”
NYG 14, BAL 35 — New York Giants lost; moneyline busts.
“I'm holding my nose and taking the under 54.5.”
DET 42, BUF 48 — Combined 90; under 54.5 busts.
“Eagles minus two and a half at commanders for next week.”
WSH 36, PHI 33 — Philadelphia Eagles margin -3 vs line -2.5; busts.
“So 11 to one, that was the pick.”
Eagles won Super Bowl LIX; Ravens lost in the Divisional round. (Baltimore eliminated in Divisional round)
“so yeah bangles minus five and a half below the key number we'll put that in as [54:18] the pick for this one”
DAL 20, CIN 27 — Cincinnati Bengals margin +7 vs line -5.5; covers.
“I'm going to take Colts-Broncos under 43.5.”
DEN 31, IND 13 — Combined 44; under 43.5 busts.
“Arizona Cardinals minus six and a half home against the Patriots We going to tease that down to half a point”
ARI 30, NE 17 — Arizona Cardinals margin +13 vs line -0.5; covers.
“We take the Commanders on the road minus seven at the Saints [57:36] We'll tease that one down to one.”
NO 19, WSH 20 — Washington Commanders margin +1 vs line -1; pushes.
“I'm just going to play the under. [26:52] Under 22.5, Jets, Dolphins.”
MIA 32, NYJ 26 — Combined 58; under 22.5 busts.
“i'm playing the eagles second half against the panthers”
PHI 22, CAR 16 — Philadelphia Eagles margin +6 vs line -5.5; covers.
“I'm just taking the plus seven and I don't really care what happens if the winner the last just give me the cover Browns plus seven”
PIT 27, CLE 14 — Cleveland Browns margin -13 vs line +7; busts.
“Give me the first half Saints team total over 10 and a half points.”
NYG 11, NO 14 — Combined 25; over 10.5 covers.
“we're gonna bet saints division here. It's 80 to 1 at one book. That's the bet.”
Buccaneers won NFC South (10-7); Saints did not win the division. (Tampa Bay won NFC South)
“So you go Arizona first quarter, full-time bet, same game parlay, plus 182. [44:44] That's how you win the game here.”
Parlay busts: Cardinals 1st quarter ML — lost; Cardinals full-game ML — lost.
“I want the futures plus 190 on the division.”
Rams won NFC West (10-7) on tiebreaker; Cardinals did not win division. (Los Angeles Rams won NFC West)
“Kyler 9-1 for comeback.”
Joe Burrow won 2024 AP Comeback Player of the Year, not Kyler Murray. (Burrow won CPOY)
“Cardinals 50-1 for NFC.”
Eagles won the NFC; Cardinals went 8-9 and missed the playoffs. (Arizona 8-9, no playoffs)
“i'm gonna take the first half money line plus 148”
KC 19, LAC 17 — Los Angeles Chargers lost; moneyline busts.
“if they do get the win, Chargers 16 to one on the division.”
Chiefs won AFC West (9th straight); Chargers finished 2nd. (Kansas City won AFC West)
“Under 7.5, 9-1. [54:06] It's a ridiculous number, but they literally hit this bet two of the last three games [54:10] and were set up to do it again last week. [54:13] So Jaguars mine shaft all the way down.”
TEN 6, JAX 10 — Combined 16; under 7.5 busts.
“I want eight receptions. That [52:17] was plus 175 last week”
TB 28, LV 13 — Brock Bowers: 3 receptions vs over 8; busts. (Brock Bowers: 3 receptions)
“Both guys six catches, 60 yards. So that's a four-part SGP plus 270.”
Parlay busts: Drake London Over 6 receptions +6 — lost; Drake London Over 60 receiving yards +60 — won; Justin Jefferson Over 6 receptions +6 — won; Justin Jefferson Over 60 receiving yards +60 — won.
“Bears Vikings under 42 and a half”
MIN 30, CHI 12 — Combined 42; under 42.5 covers.
“I grabbed the over, the traditional [50:34] yards, 57 and a half, wherever in that range, 59, 60, somewhere in there is probably fine.”
DEN 41, CLE 32 — Jerry Jeudy: 235 receiving_yards vs over 57.5; covers. (Jerry Jeudy: 235 receiving_yards)
“so i will take the under 51 and a half packers lions thursday night”
DET 34, GB 31 — Combined 65; under 51.5 busts.
“so this is [56:36] kind of your bonus pick here under 45 and a half seahawks cardinals”
ARI 18, SEA 30 — Combined 48; under 45.5 busts.
“So under 43 and a half Sunday night, [59:56] get all three of these division unders.”
KC 19, LAC 17 — Combined 36; under 43.5 covers.
“I love the Lions. Lions minus 10.”
DET 23, CHI 20 — Detroit Lions margin +3 vs line -10; busts.
“70-plus yards, plus 235. [17:59] He's gone over that mark all four home games this year, 79 at least in every game.”
DET 23, CHI 20 — Jameson Williams: 28 receiving_yards vs over 70; busts. (Jameson Williams: 28 receiving_yards)
“So I like the over 4.5, minus 114. [20:18] I'll play that.”
DET 23, CHI 20 — DJ Moore: 8 receptions vs over 4.5; covers. (DJ Moore: 8 receptions)
“Give me the Giants, plus four, plus three and a half, if it's all you can get. [23:31] And I'm going to take the money line, too.”
DAL 27, NYG 20 — New York Giants margin -7 vs line +4; busts.
“And then [23:33] is the trend. Cowboys on Thanksgiving have covered two of the last 13 Thanksgivings.”
DAL 27, NYG 20 — New York Giants lost; moneyline busts.
“yeah i like the packers a lot here packers minus three i'll take if you need to get [24:22] the three and a half i don't mind it”
GB 30, MIA 17 — Green Bay Packers margin +13 vs line -3; covers.
“i'm gonna still play johnny smith's over 40 and a half [26:47] receiving yards”
GB 30, MIA 17 — Jonnu Smith: 113 receiving_yards vs over 40.5; covers. (Jonnu Smith: 113 receiving_yards)
“I'd take an over on both of those if we got them. So something like six catches, 60 yards.”
KC 19, LV 17 — Travis Kelce: 7 receptions vs over 6; covers. (Travis Kelce: 7 receptions)
“give me A.J. Brown overs the Ravens are dead last against wide receiver one by D.V. [42:13] away”
A.J. Brown caught 5 passes for just 66 yards in Philadelphia's 24-19 win over Baltimore — well below his season pace and any realistic receiving-yards line that week (props were priced around 90+). (A.J. Brown: 5 rec, 66 yds)
“Give me Rams minus two and a half below the key number.”
NO 14, LAR 21 — Los Angeles Rams margin +7 vs line -2.5; covers.
“give me Tampa's first half team total over.”
CAR 23, TB 26 — Combined 49; over 13.5 covers.
“I'm going first half Texans. [50:36] It just dipped below the key numbers. [50:38] So minus two and a half in Jacksonville.”
JAX 20, HOU 23 — Houston Texans margin +3 vs line -2.5; covers.
“Give me the first quarter total over seven and a half points.”
MIN 23, ARI 22 — Combined 45; over 7.5 covers.
“not even brown stealers give me the under 40 and a half”
PIT 27, CLE 14 — Combined 41; under 40.5 busts.
“I like the Ravens minus two and a half.”
LAC 23, BAL 30 — Baltimore Ravens margin +7 vs line -2.5; covers.
“I like the first half under. Under 25 and a half is even odds. To me, this is just a splits thing.”
LAC 23, BAL 30 — Combined 53; under 25.5 busts.
“i'm going to play colts minus one and a half at the patriots i think that this game is being”
NE 24, IND 25 — Indianapolis Colts margin +1 vs line -1.5; busts.
“A little bonus hot read here. Over eight and a half on the win total is plus 176.”
Colts finished 8-9 in 2024, falling short of 8.5 wins. (Indianapolis 8-9)
“plus seven on the Niners, and it gave me the money line too, plus 260. I think they can get the job done”
BUF 35, SF 10 — San Francisco 49ers margin -25 vs line +7; busts.
“So I will take the Sunday night Eagles Rams under 24 and a half.”
LAR 20, PHI 37 — Combined 57; under 24.5 busts.
“I'm going to play the Vikings first quarter so it's minus half a point at plus 130. Effectively that is a Vikings three-way money line.”
CHI 27, MIN 30 — Minnesota Vikings margin +3 vs line -0.5; covers.
“Raiders first quarter, the three-way money line. This one's plus 215. So we need the Raiders to win the first quarter outright.”
LV 19, DEN 29 — Las Vegas Raiders lost; moneyline busts.
“give me the Cardinals over three and a half points. It's plus 105. So that's my first quarter angle here.”
SEA 16, ARI 6 — Combined 22; over 3.5 covers.
“But I still like... Seattle on the game. I still like them to win the game outright”
SEA 16, ARI 6 — Seattle Seahawks won; moneyline covers.
“Seattle division odds plus 600 because of the case we laid out earlier”
Rams won the 2024 NFC West; Seahawks finished second. (Seahawks 10-7, missed playoffs.)
“Arizona over the three and a half points, the bet we just said, plus Seattle money line.”
Parlay cashes: Cardinals first quarter team total Over 3.5 +3.5 — won; Seattle Seahawks ML — won.
“i going with the tyler lockett over 36 and a half receiving yards now”
SEA 16, ARI 6 — Tyler Lockett: 20 receiving_yards vs over 36.5; busts. (Tyler Lockett: 20 receiving_yards)
“play dj moore over four and a half receptions it's even odds and we're going to take the escalator”
CHI 27, MIN 30 — DJ Moore: 7 receptions vs over 4.5; covers. (DJ Moore: 7 receptions)
“Give me an Evans touchdown, plus 160 at the Giants.”
Mike Evans did not score a TD in Buccaneers' 30-7 win at Giants Week 12. (Evans 5 rec, 68 yds, 0 TD)
“the main bet here is George Kittle over 45 and a half receiving yards”
GB 38, SF 10 — George Kittle: 82 receiving_yards vs over 45.5; covers. (George Kittle: 82 receiving_yards)
“give me a David Montgomery over here. So over the rushing yards, 57 and a half, plus a touchdown. So it's the same game parlay, plus 168.”
IND 6, DET 24 — David Montgomery: 37 rushing_yards vs over 57.5; busts. (David Montgomery: 37 rushing_yards)
“give me the Seahawks plus one and a half at the Jets The Seahawks plus one and a half at the Jets”
NYJ 21, SEA 26 — Seattle Seahawks margin +5 vs line +1.5; covers.
“Give me the Lions minus 10.”
DET 23, CHI 20 — Detroit Lions margin +3 vs line -10; busts.
“give me Micah Parsons, minus 110 to record a sack in the game.”
Micah Parsons recorded 0 sacks vs Houston. (1 solo tackle, 0 sacks; Texans won 34-10.)
“Give me the Philadelphia Eagles, minus two and a half in LA, but against the Rams, not the Chargers next week.”
LAR 20, PHI 37 — Philadelphia Eagles margin +17 vs line -2.5; covers.
“so we'll grab the under 43 box giants hopefully don't have”
NYG 7, TB 30 — Combined 37; under 43 covers.
“So I will take the Lions minus 13.”
DET 52, JAX 6 — Detroit Lions margin +46 vs line -13; covers.
“this is too far for me Jacksonville season win total under under five”
Jaguars finished 4-13, under 5.5 wins. (Jaguars 4-13)
“So give me the Browns at the plus one and a half.”
NO 35, CLE 14 — Cleveland Browns margin -21 vs line +1.5; busts.
“Yeah, give me the Steelers. [10:39] Plus three if you need to.”
PIT 18, BAL 16 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin +2 vs line +3; covers.
“dolphins texans tease them both down to minus one just win baby”
Parlay cashes: Dolphins -1 (teased from -7) -1 — won; Texans -1 (teased from -7) -1 — won.
“Give me the 100-yard rushing game, plus 210 Jonathan Taylor.”
NYJ 27, IND 28 — Jonathan Taylor: 57 rushing_yards vs over 100; busts. (Jonathan Taylor: 57 rushing_yards)
“season stat leaders jonathan taylor is 100 to”
Jonathan Taylor did not lead the NFL in rushing yards; Saquon Barkley led with 2,005. (Barkley 2,005 rush yds led NFL)
“Josh Jacobs over the 68 and a half.”
CHI 19, GB 20 — Josh Jacobs: 76 rushing_yards vs over 68.5; covers. (Josh Jacobs: 76 rushing_yards)
“The main plays here are Allen over six and a half rushing attempts and over 30 and a half”
Josh Allen had 12 rushing attempts vs the Chiefs, over 6.5. (Allen 12 carries, 55 rush yds (Bills 30-21 Chiefs, Week 11))
“The main plays here are Allen over six and a half rushing attempts and over 30 and a half”
BUF 30, KC 21 — Josh Allen: 55 rushing_yards vs over 30.5; covers. (Josh Allen: 55 rushing_yards)
“me the over 65 and a half yards that's going into the parlay and again I like my alts here”
BUF 30, KC 21 — Travis Kelce: 8 receiving_yards vs over 65.5; busts. (Travis Kelce: 8 receiving_yards)
“travis kelsey reception seven to one that's my”
Travis Kelce did not lead the NFL in receptions; Ja'Marr Chase led with 127 (Kelce 97). (Chase 127 receptions led NFL; Kelce 97)
“So I'm going to play that. [31:24] That's my this is a close game bet. [31:26] minus 125”
Parlay busts: Chiefs +7.5 +7.5 — lost; Bills +7.5 +7.5 — won.
“Broncos to make the playoffs is plus 200. [36:00] They're right in that mix.”
Broncos made the 2024 playoffs as AFC 7 seed. (Denver finished 10-7, first playoff berth since 2015.)
“ravens minus three at the chargers it's a minus 105 right now so we're getting at the key number”
LAC 23, BAL 30 — Baltimore Ravens margin +7 vs line -3; covers.
“So a little bit lighter on the juice there as well. So I'll play”
LAC 34, CIN 27 — Cincinnati Bengals margin -7 vs line +2.5; busts.
“So I'm just [53:34] going to play it right now. Steelers plus three and a half.”
PIT 18, BAL 16 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin +2 vs line +3.5; covers.
“But just the basic receiving yards over.”
LAR 15, MIA 23 — De'Von Achane: 15 receiving_yards vs over 41.5; busts. (De'Von Achane: 15 receiving_yards)
“For just this game, I'll take the Chiefs' second half line, minus 4.5.”
KC 30, TB 24 — Kansas City Chiefs margin +6 vs line -4.5; covers.
“I like the Bengals here. Give me the Bengals plus six and a half.”
BAL 35, CIN 34 — Cincinnati Bengals margin -1 vs line +6.5; covers.
“give me the bangles plus 225 the money line i think they can win this game”
BAL 35, CIN 34 — Cincinnati Bengals lost; moneyline busts.
“give me the 49ers minus five and [46:27] a half at the box”
TB 20, SF 23 — San Francisco 49ers margin +3 vs line -5.5; busts.
“Over 32 and a half receiving yards. Again, Achan's had 50 plus yards [6:16] all three two-a-games. That's what we're doing as our data here.”
BUF 30, MIA 27 — De'Von Achane: 58 receiving_yards vs over 32.5; covers. (De'Von Achane: 58 receiving_yards)
“Receptions, over three and a half. The Bills have allowed three or more receptions to a running [6:41] back nine times already this season”
BUF 30, MIA 27 — De'Von Achane: 8 receptions vs over 3.5; covers. (De'Von Achane: 8 receptions)
“Obviously, [6:21] we're playing 50 plus yards plus 230. That's, I think, what the line should be.”
BUF 30, MIA 27 — De'Von Achane: 58 receiving_yards vs over 50; covers. (De'Von Achane: 58 receiving_yards)
“Just take his over on the rushing [9:23] yards. It's 73 and a half right now. Give me that plus a touchdown. It's plus 146 together.”
ATL 27, DAL 21 — Bijan Robinson: 86 rushing_yards vs over 73.5; covers. (Bijan Robinson: 86 rushing_yards)
“Let take the receiving yards over 75 and a half and we get to a couple escalators on it”
PHI 28, JAX 23 — A.J. Brown: 36 receiving_yards vs over 75.5; busts. (A.J. Brown: 36 receiving_yards)
“And then to the escalators, 100-plus yards at plus 215. 100 yards has not been a hard thing for [14:42] Ray J. Brown.”
PHI 28, JAX 23 — A.J. Brown: 36 receiving_yards vs over 100; busts. (A.J. Brown: 36 receiving_yards)
“for this official pick, Detroit minus three and Captain Public, let's ride.”
GB 14, DET 24 — Detroit Lions margin +10 vs line -3; covers.
“I'm going to take the Broncos plus nine and a half in Baltimore.”
BAL 41, DEN 10 — Denver Broncos margin -31 vs line +9.5; busts.
“So give me the plus nine and a half. [28:01] It's a little sprinkle in case weird stuff happens [28:04] and Denver gets over the line on the money line.”
BAL 41, DEN 10 — Denver Broncos lost; moneyline busts.
“I'm going to take the Saints first half team total over 13 and a half, [28:40] and here's the key against the Panthers.”
CAR 23, NO 22 — Combined 45; over 13.5 covers.
“I'm going to play Minnesota Vikings minus three and a half in Jacksonville for week 10.”
JAX 7, MIN 12 — Minnesota Vikings margin +5 vs line -3.5; covers.
“Titans-Chargers, you already know what we're doing for Titans-Chargers. [34:35] Why wait around? [34:36] Under 38 and a half.”
LAC 27, TEN 17 — Combined 44; under 38.5 busts.
“so I take the under 30 and a half [53:12] down the mine shaft plus 215”
PIT 26, NYG 18 — Combined 44; under 30.5 busts.
“Under on the Patriots. [56:20] Patriots at Titans. [56:21] under 39”
TEN 20, NE 17 — Combined 37; under 39 covers.
“I'm taking a chargers under chargers at the Browns under 41.”
CLE 10, LAC 27 — Combined 37; under 41 covers.
“yeah we're gonna go with the cleveland browns plus nine and a half against the ravens”
CLE 29, BAL 24 — Cleveland Browns margin +5 vs line +9.5; covers.
“I think the Browns have a chance to win this thing. Plus 350 in the money line. I think it's [7:54] worth a sprinkle.”
CLE 29, BAL 24 — Cleveland Browns won; moneyline covers.
“their win total right now [8:28] is 3.5 for the season you only got one so far you only need three more to cash i like the over”
Browns finished 2024 at 3-14; Over 3.5 wins loses. (Cleveland 3-14)
“yeah i'm gonna take the eagles bangles [9:22] under the 48”
CIN 17, PHI 37 — Combined 54; under 48 busts.
“We're hitting the mine shaft here. [12:39] Under 30.5 plus 215 will even take it one level lower.”
PIT 26, NYG 18 — Combined 44; under 30.5 busts.
“so first pick is romeo dobbs over 44 and a half receiving yards we're going [16:01] with there”
JAX 27, GB 30 — Romeo Doubs: 72 receiving_yards vs over 44.5; covers. (Romeo Doubs: 72 receiving_yards)
“jordan love three touchdowns is plus 190”
Jordan Love threw 0 TDs and left injured in Q3 vs Jacksonville; 3+ passing TDs loses. (Love 14/22, 196 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT)
“Brees Hall playing the Patriots, [26:30] just going to take the rushing over for him. That's 75 yards plus a touchdown. 75 rushing [26:40] yards and a touchdown is plus 197”
NE 25, NYJ 22 — Breece Hall: 80 rushing_yards vs over 75; covers. (Breece Hall: 80 rushing_yards)
“same exact play as breese hall 75 yards and a touchdown it's plus 203”
LAC 26, NO 8 — J.K. Dobbins: 57 rushing_yards vs over 75; busts. (J.K. Dobbins: 57 rushing_yards)
“Javante Williams over 61 and a half plus a touchdown this one's plus 185 out there”
DEN 28, CAR 14 — Javonte Williams: 44 rushing_yards vs over 61.5; busts. (Javonte Williams: 44 rushing_yards)
“give me the commanders minus two and a half at the Giants”
NYG 22, WSH 27 — Washington Commanders margin +5 vs line -2.5; covers.
“I like him 4-1 much better he's playing way [19:39] better than Kirk Cousins or Aaron Rodgers”
Joe Burrow won 2024 AP Comeback Player of the Year. (Burrow 31 first-place votes, 370 points)
“He's still 6-1 in the market.”
Joe Burrow won 2024 Comeback Player of the Year, not Damar Hamlin. (Hamlin 4th in voting (86 pts))
“So I like [28:33] they're over eight and a half. It's plus money. I put them at nine and a half and higher on wins.”
Seahawks finished 2024 at 10-7; Over 8.5 wins cashes. (Seattle 10-7)
“I like the playoffs, plus 180. I like the division.”
Seahawks went 10-7 but missed the 2024 playoffs on a strength-of-victory tiebreaker. (10-7, first 10-win team to miss playoffs in 17-game era)
“this was one of my best bets bucks plus three and a half i took the money line i got 180 160 [51:33] whatever is out there i still feel like that's pretty good”
TB 31, BAL 41 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost; moneyline busts.
“give me the first half over 21 and a half 22 and a half is fine if you need it”
ARI 17, LAC 15 — Combined 32; over 21.5 covers.
“Give me the Colts plus six and a half at the Texans.”
HOU 23, IND 20 — Indianapolis Colts margin -3 vs line +6.5; covers.
“Cardinals plus three and a half at the Dolphins.”
MIA 27, ARI 28 — Arizona Cardinals margin +1 vs line +3.5; covers.
“Give me the commanders. [4:26] First half team total over 15 and a half against the Panthers.”
WSH 40, CAR 7 — Combined 47; over 15.5 covers.
“packers first or second half minus 1.5 it is a plus 120”
GB 24, HOU 22 — Green Bay Packers margin +2 vs line -1.5; covers.
“a little escalator, Texans first quarter money [9:44] line, Packers second half money line, play them together. It's a negative correlation. So we get [9:50] a little boost there. It's plus 390. So I'll put a little bit on that as well.”
Parlay busts: Texans 1st quarter ML — lost; Packers 2nd half ML — won.
“I like under, just the same pick that I liked before [11:19] We just get an extra point now”
NYG 3, PHI 28 — Combined 31; under 38.5 covers.
“Eagles Giants under 43 is the new best bet.”
NYG 3, PHI 28 — Combined 31; under 43 covers.
“I'm taking the Bucs plus 3.5. [19:45] I already played the money line at plus 180. [19:47] I see a plus 165 still. [19:49] I like that.”
TB 31, BAL 41 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers margin -10 vs line +3.5; busts.
“I already played the money line at plus 180. [19:47] I see a plus 165 still. [19:49] I like that.”
TB 31, BAL 41 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost; moneyline busts.
“give me the two passing touchdowns plus two 55.”
Drake Maye threw 2 passing TDs vs the Jaguars in London; Over 1.5 (2+) wins. (Maye 26/37, 276 yds, 2 TD)
“touchdown for Deontay is plus 155. [30:08] I also like a little sprinkle on 75 yards and a touchdown at plus 300.”
Diontae Johnson did not score in the Panthers' 40-7 loss at Washington; no TD. (Johnson 1 rec, 17 yds, 0 TD)
“I'm going to take longest reception over 26 and a half yards at the Browns.”
Ja'Marr Chase's longest reception was 18 yards vs the Browns; Over 26.5 loses. (Chase 5 rec, 55 yds, 1 TD; long 18)
“I like Geno. [32:49] Over 259 and a half passing yards.”
ATL 14, SEA 34 — Geno Smith: 207 passing_yards vs over 259.5; busts. (Geno Smith: 207 passing_yards)
“I'll grab the under above the key number 37 and a half for next Monday night, [35:50] giant Steelers.”
PIT 26, NYG 18 — Combined 44; under 37.5 busts.
“division odds plus 185 ftn has them at 44 so that's a really good bargain for your buck there”
Buccaneers won the NFC South in 2024 (fourth straight), beating the Saints in Week 18. (Bucs finished 10-7, won NFC South)
“I already am in on Bucs' money line Monday night to post-hurricane return to Tampa, stop the Baltimore run a little bit, pass on them against that defense like you said simon i think camp is live there plus 180 on the money line”
TB 31, BAL 41 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost; moneyline busts.
“thursday night broncos saints under 37 and a half”
NO 10, DEN 33 — Combined 43; under 37.5 busts.
“the very next prime time game and we're taking another one only at one book make sure to shop”
NYG 3, PHI 28 — Combined 31; under 37.5 covers.
“give me the commanders over one and a half first half touchdowns or if”
WSH 40, CAR 7 — Combined 47; over 1.5 covers.
“I take the Bengals, minus three and a half at the Giants.”
NYG 7, CIN 17 — Cincinnati Bengals margin +10 vs line -3.5; covers.
“but I will sprinkle 150 to one offensive player of the year.”
Saquon Barkley won 2024 Offensive Player of the Year; Joe Burrow finished 5th. (Burrow: 78 points, 5th in OPOY voting)
“I'm going to go with the Lions minus three at the Cowboys.”
DAL 9, DET 47 — Detroit Lions margin +38 vs line -3; covers.
“So the play I'm going to make is over his rushing yards, right now at 56 and a half and an anytime touchdown. I'll play those together. It's plus 212.”
David Montgomery rushed for 60 yards (over the 56.5 line) and scored a rushing touchdown in Detroit's 47-9 rout of Dallas, hitting both legs of the parlay. (David Montgomery: 60 rush yds, 1 TD)
“I will just take the Allen at least one interception on Monday Night Football, minus 120.”
Josh Allen threw 0 interceptions vs the Jets on MNF Week 6; Over 0.5 INT loses. (Allen 23/30, 215 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT in Bills 23-20 win)
“so give me the eagles first half at the browns i got it minus four and a half try to get under six if you can”
PHI 20, CLE 16 — Philadelphia Eagles margin +4 vs line -4.5; busts.
“So official bet for the podcast, the Atlanta Dirty Bird Falcons over 13 and a half points in the first half.”
CAR 20, ATL 38 — Combined 58; over 13.5 covers.
“So I'll put those together. Patriots plus seven, under the 38, a same game parlay at plus 240.”
Parlay busts: Patriots +7 +7 — lost; Under 38 +38 — lost.
“we know about the prime time unders so give me the under 43 and a half”
KC 26, NO 13 — Combined 39; under 43.5 covers.
“i am going to play and did already play we gave it out on best bets dear car for mvp if they go to arrowhead”
Josh Allen won 2024 NFL MVP; Derek Carr did not win. (Allen won 2024 MVP)
“I'm going to go right back to Joe Burrow. Give me the Bengals. Minus three and a half at the Giants.”
NYG 7, CIN 17 — Cincinnati Bengals margin +10 vs line -3.5; covers.
“ugly on their chargers Broncos under 37.”
DEN 16, LAC 23 — Combined 39; under 37 busts.
“I'm going to take the Bills against the Texans. Yeah, this one is basically a coin flip. I'm gonna grab the money line minus 108”
HOU 23, BUF 20 — Buffalo Bills lost; moneyline busts.
“Let's go under the 36 and a half. Look, we played the Dolphins under on Monday night.”
NE 10, MIA 15 — Combined 25; under 36.5 covers.
“Now I'm going to go with Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers running back over 58 and a half rushing yards.”
CHI 36, CAR 10 — Chuba Hubbard: 97 rushing_yards vs over 58.5; covers. (Chuba Hubbard: 97 rushing_yards)
“Just Packers minus three at the Rams One team that I love, I will say it. One team that I hate, happy to say that part.”
LAR 19, GB 24 — Green Bay Packers margin +5 vs line -3; covers.
“give me Justin Fields, the score touchdown, plus 185 Sunday night against the Cowboys.”
Justin Fields ran for 2 rushing TDs vs Cowboys on SNF Week 5; anytime TD cashes. (Fields: 312 pass yards, 2 rushing TDs on 10 carries)
“So 100 yards, two scores for Derrick Henry. That's the play.”
Derrick Henry had 92 yards and 1 TD vs Bengals in Week 5; 100 yards + 2 TDs misses. (Henry: 92 rush yards, 1 TD)
“i'm just gonna take the under under 37 tyler huntley gets the start here tyler huntley has a starter eight and one to the under lifetime under 32 points a game in his games”
MIA 12, TEN 31 — Combined 43; under 37 busts.
“I do man I have to go to your Chiefs game we got Chiefs Saints next Monday night and I'm gonna go ahead and grab the under it's under 43”
KC 26, NO 13 — Combined 39; under 43 covers.
“So I'm going to take Seattle next week, minus five and a half against the Giants. Make sure to get the five and a half if you can.”
Seattle's only 2024 meeting with New York was Week 5 (Oct 6), which the Giants won outright 29-20 — the Seahawks lost outright, missing the -5.5 spread badly (batch eventDate of Week 6/Oct 13 appears mislabeled; no second Seahawks-Giants game occurred in 2024). (Giants 29, Seahawks 20)
“Give me the Jaguars plus six and a half in Houston.”
HOU 24, JAX 20 — Jacksonville Jaguars margin -4 vs line +6.5; covers.
“Sprinkle the Jaguars to win by 10. [9:03] Minus nine and a half alternate line plus 830.”
HOU 24, JAX 20 — Jacksonville Jaguars margin -4 vs line -9.5; busts.
“So give me the Bengals minus four.”
CAR 24, CIN 34 — Cincinnati Bengals margin +10 vs line -4; covers.
“I'm going to go with Marvin Harrison Jr. to score an anytime touchdown, plus 125.”
Marvin Harrison Jr. scored a 2-yard TD vs Commanders in Week 4; anytime TD cashes. (MHJ: 5 rec, 45 yards, 1 TD)
“Got to do it Plus 950 Sprinkle a little bit on the two touchdowns for Harrison”
Marvin Harrison Jr. scored only 1 TD vs Commanders in Week 4; 2+ TDs misses. (MHJ: 5 rec, 45 yards, 1 TD)
“Garrett Wilson under 56.5 receiving yards.”
NYJ 9, DEN 10 — Garrett Wilson: 41 receiving_yards vs under 56.5; covers. (Garrett Wilson: 41 receiving_yards)
“I'm taking an alternate line, Ravens minus 3.5. [22:38] So Baltimore gets up, but then I want the Bills minus the same 3.5 in the second half. [22:44] I'm going to put those two together. [22:45] It's a plus 425.”
Parlay busts: Ravens -3.5 first half -3.5 — won; Bills -3.5 second half -3.5 — lost.
“gonna take the Packers minus nine and a half Packers to win by double digits it's plus 300”
GB 29, MIN 31 — Green Bay Packers margin -2 vs line -9.5; busts.
“Jets minus 104 on the money line Let play international ball Sunday morning”
MIN 23, NYJ 17 — New York Jets lost; moneyline busts.
“I think Jacksonville plus six and a half [37:53] at the Texans is a great play, and it's actually one of my favorite early plays of the week.”
HOU 24, JAX 20 — Jacksonville Jaguars margin -4 vs line +6.5; covers.
“play the money line [39:30] also we're getting over 30 percent roi on the money line i like jacksonville here i think i [39:36] will be looking at jacksonville to win outright as well”
HOU 24, JAX 20 — Jacksonville Jaguars lost; moneyline busts.
“I'm just going to make the official pick, [46:06] the Chase touchdown around plus 120, 125.”
Ja'Marr Chase caught 2 TDs vs Commanders on MNF Week 3; anytime TD cashes. (Chase: 118 yards, 2 receiving TDs)
“I'm going to take the Cowboys right out of the gate. I'm just going to go back to Dallas, [47:05] minus four and a half in New York”
NYG 15, DAL 20 — Dallas Cowboys margin +5 vs line -4.5; covers.
“We get the Jets down to one and a half.”
NYJ 9, DEN 10 — New York Jets margin -1 vs line -1.5; busts.
“And importantly, we get the Chiefs down to two and a half [49:50] below the field goal.”
LAC 10, KC 17 — Kansas City Chiefs margin +7 vs line -2.5; covers.
“I'm going to play the Ravens. [5:51] I'll take the money line. [5:52] It's at minus 108 against the Cowboys in Dallas.”
DAL 25, BAL 28 — Baltimore Ravens won; moneyline covers.
“so give me the Giants [9:03] plus six and a half at the Browns”
CLE 15, NYG 21 — New York Giants margin +6 vs line +6.5; covers.
“giants minus five and a half giants win by six or better [11:39] plus 630”
CLE 15, NYG 21 — New York Giants margin +6 vs line -5.5; covers.
“same pick on the broncos kitchen sink broncos minus [11:46] five and a half plus 600 just a little sprinkle on an ugly nasty win”
TB 7, DEN 26 — Denver Broncos margin +19 vs line -5.5; covers.
“It did not hit for us, but I'm going to tell you why we like it again. [12:39] It's over 26.5 at the Rams.”
LAR 27, SF 24 — Combined 51; over 26.5 covers.
“We'll take the Chiefs minus. [20:00] three at the Falcons.”
ATL 17, KC 22 — Kansas City Chiefs margin +5 vs line -3; covers.
“I'm going to play Lions minus two and a half. [24:30] Let's get a win if we win by a field goal. [24:33] That's at minus 112.”
ARI 13, DET 20 — Detroit Lions margin +7 vs line -2.5; covers.
“I'm on [25:31] Eagles plus three here.”
NO 12, PHI 15 — Philadelphia Eagles margin +3 vs line +3; covers.
“Jamar Chase, I like him to get a touchdown Monday night against the Commanders. [28:20] It's plus 120.”
Ja'Marr Chase scored a receiving TD vs the Commanders on MNF. (Chase caught a 41-yard TD from Joe Burrow.)
“I'm going to take a Steelers road under. [28:58] It's Steelers at Colts under 41”
IND 27, PIT 24 — Combined 51; under 41 busts.
“Kirk Cousins is throwing interception it's minus 170 you know that's not my usual way to go”
Kirk Cousins threw zero interceptions in the Falcons' 22-21 MNF win over the Eagles. (Cousins 20/29, 241 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT.)
“So we'll start Thursday under on Patriots Jets.”
NYJ 24, NE 3 — Combined 27; under 39 covers.
“giants browns under 39 under both of these grab the”
CLE 15, NYG 21 — Combined 36; under 39 covers.
“Steelers Broncos under 36 and a half. [4:49] Let's get ugly right out of the gates.”
DEN 6, PIT 13 — Combined 19; under 36.5 covers.
“the 49ers team total we'll go over on this one over 25 and a half at my Minnesota Vikings”
MIN 23, SF 17 — Combined 40; over 25.5 covers.
“We're taking the Cooper Cup escalator.”
Cooper Kupp finished with only 4 receptions (left the game early with an ankle injury), short of the 7.5 line. (Cooper Kupp: 4 rec, 37 yds)
“Give me the Bucs-Lions under 51 and a half.”
DET 16, TB 20 — Combined 36; under 51.5 covers.
“Bengals money line at the Chiefs, plus 210.”
KC 26, CIN 25 — Cincinnati Bengals lost; moneyline busts.
“the Chicago Bears plus 240 on the money line.”
HOU 19, CHI 13 — Chicago Bears lost; moneyline busts.
“Panthers money line and the under 39 and a half on a same game parlay plus 492”
Parlay busts: Panthers ML — lost; Under 39.5 +39.5 — won.
“I'm taking Dallas, but not just the spread, minus 19 and a half. [25:45] Dallas to win by 20 or more, plus 450.”
DAL 19, NO 44 — Dallas Cowboys margin -25 vs line -19.5; busts.
“100 yards and two rushing touchdowns is plus 800. [28:12] We want the same game parlay.”
Parlay busts: Derrick Henry Over 99.5 rushing yards +99.5 — lost; Derrick Henry 2+ rushing touchdowns +1.5 — manual.
“Chiefs minus three and a half at the Falcons Sunday night.”
ATL 17, KC 22 — Kansas City Chiefs margin +5 vs line -3.5; covers.
“He's 60-1 still at a book.”
Saquon Barkley won 2024 Offensive Player of the Year; De'Von Achane did not. (Barkley rushed for 2,005 yards.)
“So Atlanta plus 125 to miss.”
Falcons missed the 2024 playoffs; bet on them to miss cashes. (Atlanta finished 8-9, out of the postseason.)
“Cincinnati plus 125 to miss.”
Bengals missed the 2024 playoffs; bet on them to miss cashes. (Cincinnati finished 9-8, out of the postseason.)
“Saints, minus 138.”
Saints missed the 2024 playoffs; bet on them to miss cashes. (New Orleans finished 5-12, out of the postseason.)
“bigger picture. I love Seattle, plus 144 to make the playoffs. Only one week of data, but number”
Seahawks missed the 2024 playoffs; bet on them to make it loses. (Seattle finished 10-7 but missed the NFC playoffs.)
“Panthers, plus four at the Saints.”
NO 47, CAR 10 — Carolina Panthers margin -37 vs line +4; busts.
“Give me the Steelers Falcons under 42 and a half My favorite total of the week”
ATL 10, PIT 18 — Combined 28; under 42.5 covers.
“Give me over 26.5 rushing yards, and then I'll play the escalator 50 yards or better, plus 425.”
NYG 6, MIN 28 — Daniel Jones: 15 rushing_yards vs over 26.5; busts. (Daniel Jones: 15 rushing_yards)
“and then I'll play the escalator 50 yards or better, plus 425.”
NYG 6, MIN 28 — Daniel Jones: 15 rushing_yards vs over 50; busts. (Daniel Jones: 15 rushing_yards)
“We're going straight to minus nine and a half plus 150.”
SEA 26, DEN 20 — Seattle Seahawks margin +6 vs line -9.5; busts.
“So it'll be minus 13 and a half plus 250.”
SEA 26, DEN 20 — Seattle Seahawks margin +6 vs line -13.5; busts.
“So minus 19 and a half plus 500.”
SEA 26, DEN 20 — Seattle Seahawks margin +6 vs line -19.5; busts.
“So Packers plus two and a half. Obviously, if you can get the three,”
PHI 34, GB 29 — Green Bay Packers margin -5 vs line +2.5; busts.
“And the Jets, Monday night in San Fran, getting four and a half points.”
SF 32, NYJ 19 — New York Jets margin -13 vs line +4.5; busts.
“Give me the Seahawks minus three at the Patriots.”
NE 20, SEA 23 — Seattle Seahawks margin +3 vs line -3; pushes.
“It's Caleb Williams as Jane Daniels, and I like Jane Daniels. This is my pick. Plus 600 Jane Daniels.”
Jayden Daniels won 2024 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year (49 of 50 first-place votes). (Daniels OROY at +600)
“Blake Corum from the Rams, 80 to one odds.”
Jayden Daniels won 2024 OROY; Blake Corum was not in contention. (OROY: Jayden Daniels)
“I'll take him at 250 to one.”
Jayden Daniels won 2024 OROY; Kimani Vidal was not in contention. (OROY: Jayden Daniels)
“I like Dallas Turner plus 450 I'm gonna start with Latu and why I'm not picking him I think he”
Jared Verse won 2024 AP Defensive Rookie of the Year; Dallas Turner did not win. (DROY: Jared Verse)
“on like what what easier comeback player of the year can you get than that plus 200 I think he's”
Joe Burrow won 2024 AP Comeback Player of the Year; Aaron Rodgers did not win. (CPOY: Joe Burrow)
“pick the guys that I know and produce and haven't won this yet. Tyreek plus 750, CD plus 1100. I play”
Saquon Barkley won 2024 AP Offensive Player of the Year; Tyreek Hill did not win. (OPOY: Saquon Barkley)
“I'm going to play his guy, CeeDee Lamb, who had 140 catches, 1,750 yards last year.”
Saquon Barkley won 2024 AP Offensive Player of the Year; CeeDee Lamb did not win. (OPOY: Saquon Barkley)
“I want Parsons and Watt and Garrett and Nick Bosa I'm playing all four”
Patrick Surtain II won 2024 AP Defensive Player of the Year; Micah Parsons did not win. (DPOY: Patrick Surtain II)
“I want Parsons and Watt and Garrett and Nick Bosa I'm playing all four”
Patrick Surtain II won 2024 AP Defensive Player of the Year; T.J. Watt did not win. (DPOY: Patrick Surtain II)
“I want Parsons and Watt and Garrett and Nick Bosa I'm playing all four”
Patrick Surtain II won 2024 AP Defensive Player of the Year; Myles Garrett did not win. (DPOY: Patrick Surtain II)
“I want Parsons and Watt and Garrett and Nick Bosa I'm playing all four”
Patrick Surtain II won 2024 AP Defensive Player of the Year; Nick Bosa did not win. (DPOY: Patrick Surtain II)
“you need a first year my guy I have one pick here it's Mike McDonald from Seattle 14 to 1”
Kevin O'Connell won 2024 AP Coach of the Year; Mike Macdonald did not win. (COY: Kevin O'Connell)
“Aaron Rodgers, MVP, 25 to one.”
Josh Allen won 2024 NFL MVP; Aaron Rodgers did not. (Allen beat Lamar Jackson 27-23 in first-place votes.)
“give me the Chiefs plus [4:47] 750. Now you got to shop around because I've seen this as low as 400, 450. If you're that low, [4:53] skip it”
Chiefs finished 15-2, tied with the Lions for the best 2024 regular-season record. (Chiefs 15-2, tied best record)
“the Cleveland Browns, 50 to one for best record. So here's the case. I love this bit.”
Browns finished 3-14, nowhere near the best 2024 regular-season record. (Browns 3-14)
“So I like Giants 10 to one. That's my favorite [13:13] here.”
Giants finished 3-14, tied for worst record but Titans (3-14) got the No. 1 pick via tiebreaker; not the outright worst record. (Giants 3-14; Titans took No.1 pick)
“Give me the Los Angeles Rams. Worst record in the [16:08] NFL, 60-1.”
Rams finished 10-7 and won the NFC West; nowhere near the worst 2024 record. (Rams 10-7, NFC West champs)
“Yeah, Rams' miss playoffs is plus 105. [18:47] You're giving me plus money on a team that I think has a chance at the worst record”
Rams won the NFC West (10-7) and made the 2024 playoffs, so the miss-playoffs bet loses. (Rams 10-7, NFC West champions, No. 4 NFC seed)
“Seahawks can make the playoffs plus 215. [19:17] I'm in.”
Seahawks finished 10-7, second in NFC West, and missed the 2024 playoffs. (Seahawks 10-7, no wild card)
“Give me the Bengals plus 210 to miss the playoffs”
Bengals finished 9-8 and missed the 2024 playoffs, so the miss-playoffs bet wins. (Cincinnati 9-8, out of postseason)
“Panthers Island, 13 to 1. [28:46] Worst to first division winner.”
Buccaneers won the NFC South; Panthers finished 5-12 and did not win the division. (Panthers 5-12, last in NFC South)
“This is equally a best bet to me It not a worst of first so it not an island for me but I love Browns plus 550”
Ravens won the AFC North; Browns finished 3-14, last in the division. (Browns 3-14)
“Rams last in the division, plus 700.”
Rams finished 1st in the NFC West, not last; the 49ers finished last (6-11). (NFC West: Rams 1, Seahawks 2, Cardinals 3, 49ers last)
“give me the 1-2 exact outcome. [36:17] Seattle first, Niners second, because I've got a gap then before the other teams, that's 12 to 1 [36:22] odds.”
Exact 1-2 of Seahawks/49ers missed: Rams finished 1st, Seahawks 2nd, 49ers last. (NFC West: Rams 1, Seahawks 2, Cardinals 3, 49ers 4)
“give me the dolphins most points [39:00] scored 60 in the one”
Detroit Lions scored the most points in 2024 (564); Dolphins did not lead the league. (Lions led with 564 points)
“commanders 30 to one the commanders are my dead last offense”
Titans scored the fewest points in 2024 (143); Commanders had a top-scoring offense. (Titans fewest with 143 points)
“it's your new england [44:17] Patriots 5 to 1 plus 500 it's my chalkiest pick in our podcast today”
Jaguars were the NFL's last winless team in 2024 (first win Week 6); Patriots won Week 1. (Jaguars stayed winless through Week 5)
“i'm going to go to the new york jets 17 to 1 last unbeaten”
Chiefs were the last unbeaten team in 2024 (9-0, lost Week 11); Jets were not. (Chiefs last unbeaten, fell in Week 11)
“Give me Dan Quinn, 100-1 first coach fired.”
Robert Saleh (Jets) was the first coach fired in 2024, not Dan Quinn; Quinn coached the Commanders to the NFC title game. (Saleh fired first (Oct 8, 2024))
“against America's team, the Dallas Cowboys, plus 186 to miss the playoffs.”
Cowboys missed the 2024 playoffs (finished 7-10, last in NFC East); +186 miss-playoffs bet cashes. (Dallas 7-10, did not qualify)
“you can bet the plus 170 to win the division based on that schedule and just kind of the way things”
Ravens won the 2024 AFC North (12-5); Bengals finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs. (Cincinnati 9-8, 3rd in AFC North)
“win the division they've got pretty good odds to win the division at plus 240 but I don't mind if”
Bills won the 2024 AFC East (13-4); Jets finished out of contention. (Buffalo won AFC East)
“in passing yards and I'm gonna enable our boy Michael Panix Jr. 80 to 1 to lead rookie”
Bo Nix led 2024 rookie QBs in passing yards (3,775); Penix had just 775 yards as a backup-turned-late-starter. (Penix 775 pass yds; Nix 3,775 led rookies)
“It's only around plus 500 now. This is the guy I want. This is the ticket”
Jared Verse won 2024 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year; Dallas Turner did not win. (Verse 37 first-place votes, 427 points)
“Aaron Rodgers, 28 to one to an MVP. I just think the number is too long.”
Josh Allen won 2024 NFL MVP; Aaron Rodgers did not win. (Allen 27 first-place votes over Lamar Jackson)
“I think Kyler Murray at 60 to one to an MVP is priced way too far down the list.”
Josh Allen won 2024 NFL MVP; Kyler Murray did not win.
“Wilson offensive player of the year odds he's 40 to 1 receivers are winning this award lately I”
Saquon Barkley won 2024 NFL Offensive Player of the Year; Garrett Wilson did not win.
“Zemir White, 50 to 1 to win the rushing title. Zemir White plays for the Raiders because I feel”
Saquon Barkley led the NFL in rushing (2,005 yds) in 2024; Zamir White did not. (White was a backup behind Ameer Abdullah/injured for Raiders)
“with the running back that's actually good in pittsburgh whose name is not nagy harris is jalen”
Saquon Barkley led the NFL in rushing (2,005 yds) in 2024; Jaylen Warren did not.
“my last guy on the list is another 100 to one it's a receiving yards”
Ja'Marr Chase led the NFL in receiving yards (1,708) in 2024; Khalil Shakir did not.
“Plus one to 25 in the division.”
Eagles won the 2024 NFC East (14-3), repeating as division champions. (Clinched back-to-back NFC East titles)
“I'm going to take the second half under 22 and a half.”
BAL 10, KC 17 — Combined 27; under 22.5 busts.
“give me the 49ers team total over 28 and a half”
SF 34, DET 31 — Combined 65; over 28.5 covers.
“So I would love the Ravens minus three and a half right now, especially because I don't”
Hypothetical Ravens-Lions Super Bowl never occurred; Baltimore lost the AFC Championship to Kansas City and Detroit lost the NFC Championship to San Francisco, so Super Bowl LVIII was Chiefs vs. 49ers. Bet voids per its own stated condition. (Matchup never materialized (actual SB LVIII: Chiefs vs 49ers))
“But give me the Rashad White under 16.5 rushing attempts.”
Rachaad White had 9 rushing attempts vs Lions; under 16.5 cashes. (White 9 att, 55 yds)
“I actually do have a touchdown bet in this one that's going to go in my Every Game article. [20:21] I do like Mike Evans.”
Mike Evans scored a TD vs Lions (8 rec, 147 yds, 1 TD); anytime TD cashes. (Evans 147 yds, 1 TD)
“But give me the Josh Allen touchdown.”
Josh Allen ran for two rushing TDs vs Chiefs; anytime TD cashes. (Allen 2 rush TD (5 & 2 yds))
“so I like the both teams to score in the fourth quarter [26:11] around minus 160 170 if you've got that as well”
Only the Chiefs scored in Q4 (Pacheco TD); Bills stayed at 24 (missed FG), so both teams did not score in the 4th. (KC scored Q4, Buffalo 0 in Q4)
“Give me the Green Bay Packers. [34:21] Plus 10, 9.5 if you need it where it's at at most books.”
SF 24, GB 21 — Green Bay Packers margin -3 vs line +10; covers.
“We going to take the money line Packers plus 360”
SF 24, GB 21 — Green Bay Packers lost; moneyline busts.
“10 to 1 Green Bay Packers [42:58] to win the NFC and get to the Super Bowl.”
Packers lost 24-21 to 49ers in the divisional round; did not win the NFC. (Lost NFC Divisional at SF)
“Packers are 30-1 to win it all.”
Packers lost in divisional round; Chiefs won Super Bowl LVIII. (GB out in divisional round)
“Give me Packers plus 10 all day.”
SF 24, GB 21 — Green Bay Packers margin -3 vs line +10; covers.
“Sprinkle that Packers money line plus 380.”
SF 24, GB 21 — Green Bay Packers lost; moneyline busts.
“plus 1100 for the Packers to win the NFC why not”
Packers lost 24-21 to 49ers in the divisional round; did not win the NFC. (Lost NFC Divisional at SF)
“And when they win, I think it's big. So give me the Bills minus 10.”
BUF 31, PIT 17 — Buffalo Bills margin +14 vs line -10; covers.
“But just give me the Rams over 24 and a half on Sunday Night Football.”
DET 24, LAR 23 — Combined 47; over 24.5 covers.
“Give me the Bucs under.”
TB 32, PHI 9 — Combined 41; under 44 covers.
“read hot read went 29 and 1 in the regular season 69 hit rate nice already grabbed bills minus seven”
BUF 31, PIT 17 — Buffalo Bills margin +14 vs line -7.5; covers.
“underdog give me the rams plus three and a half we all sorts of juicy storylines here we got matt stafford back to detroit to face his old team We going to get Ben Johnson and Sean McVay just dialing up heaters Awesome plays all game long And of course”
DET 24, LAR 23 — Los Angeles Rams margin -1 vs line +3.5; covers.
“Eagles at Buccaneers, under 45.”
TB 32, PHI 9 — Combined 41; under 45 covers.
“Going Saturday afternoon, give me the Baltimore resting Ravens plus four against the Steelers.”
BAL 10, PIT 17 — Baltimore Ravens margin -7 vs line +4; busts.
“the formula at this kind of game. That's the formula. Josh Allen gave me the anytime touchdown.”
Josh Allen scored no rush/rec TD (only 2 passing TDs) in Bills' 21-14 win over Dolphins; passing TDs don't count. (0 rush/rec TD)
“Give me the Falcons and the Saints under 42 and a half.”
NO 48, ATL 17 — Combined 65; under 42.5 busts.
“Minus 130 for James Conner anytime touchdown.”
James Conner ran for a 29-yard TD (150 rush yds) vs Seahawks; anytime TD hits. (1 rush TD)
“If you have not played Will Anderson yet,”
Will Anderson Jr. won 2023 AP Defensive Rookie of the Year (151 pts). (Won DROY over Jalen Carter)
“Give me the Bears.”
CHI 37, ATL 17 — Chicago Bears margin +20 vs line -3; covers.
“Give me the under 43.”
TB 13, NO 23 — Combined 36; under 43 covers.
“give me travis kelsey over 59 and a half receiving yards against the bangles”
KC 25, CIN 17 — Travis Kelce: 16 receiving_yards vs over 59.5; busts. (Travis Kelce: 16 receiving_yards)
“i'm doubling down on the los angeles rams minus three and a half against the saints in la this line has not moved and i certainly think it should have by now”
LAR 30, NO 22 — Los Angeles Rams margin +8 vs line -3.5; covers.
“Give me the rah-rah Mike Tomlin Steelers at home. Plus two and a half underdogs against the Cincinnati Bengals.”
PIT 34, CIN 11 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin +23 vs line +2.5; covers.
“there's one game that I loved so that's the one I'm leading with and that is the Los Angeles Rams minus six home against the Commanders”
LAR 28, WSH 20 — Los Angeles Rams margin +8 vs line -6; covers.
“So I'm going to tease the Kansas City Chiefs minus 7.5 at New England. tease that down to minus one and a half and then give me the Niners they are minus 12 at Arizona so tease that down to six”
Parlay cashes: Chiefs -1.5 (teased from -7.5) -1.5 — won; 49ers -6 (teased from -12) -6 — won.
“I'm going to go to that Jets-Dolphins game. I'm going to play the under 37 and a half.”
MIA 30, NYJ 0 — Combined 30; under 37.5 covers.
“I'm gonna start on Thursday night give me the Rams again Rams minus four home against the Saints.”
LAR 30, NO 22 — Los Angeles Rams margin +8 vs line -4; covers.
“give me the Chicago Bears minus three home against the Cardinals again minus three at home.”
CHI 27, ARI 16 — Chicago Bears margin +11 vs line -3; covers.
“give me the chargers raiders under 34 and a half”
LV 63, LAC 21 — Combined 84; under 34.5 busts.
“Ravens Jags under 43 and a half.”
JAX 7, BAL 23 — Combined 30; under 43.5 covers.
“Give me the Ravens minus seven against the Rams.”
BAL 37, LAR 31 — Baltimore Ravens margin +6 vs line -7; busts.
“Give me the Bucs and the Falcons under 41.”
ATL 25, TB 29 — Combined 54; under 41 busts.
“So give me the Josh Allen over 30 and a half rushing yards.”
KC 17, BUF 20 — Josh Allen: 32 rushing_yards vs over 30.5; covers. (Josh Allen: 32 rushing_yards)
“I'm going to take the Eagles this time. Minus four at the Seahawks.”
SEA 20, PHI 17 — Philadelphia Eagles margin -3 vs line -4; busts.
“Give me the under 37.”
NYJ 30, HOU 6 — Combined 36; under 37 covers.
“Give me the Panthers plus six and a half”
NO 28, CAR 6 — Carolina Panthers margin -22 vs line +6.5; busts.
“I will take the Niners minus two and a half.”
PHI 19, SF 42 — San Francisco 49ers margin +23 vs line -2.5; covers.
“Give me Najee Harris over 45 and a half rushing yards against the Cardinals.”
PIT 10, ARI 24 — Najee Harris: 63 rushing_yards vs over 45.5; covers. (Najee Harris: 63 rushing_yards)
“Give me Adam Thielen, over five and a half receptions.”
TB 21, CAR 18 — Adam Thielen: 3 receptions vs over 5.5; busts. (Adam Thielen: 3 receptions)
“But for the content, give me the Cowboys.”
DAL 33, PHI 13 — Dallas Cowboys margin +20 vs line -2.5; covers.
“I'm grabbing it right away. [34:39] Give me the 49ers minus 115 on the money line. [34:43] They are the better team.”
PHI 19, SF 42 — San Francisco 49ers won; moneyline covers.
“So I'm grabbing Texans Island [36:50] now. I don't think these teams are even. I want the home team. I want the better quarterback and [36:55] the better team. So give me Texans minus two and a half.”
HOU 22, DEN 17 — Houston Texans margin +5 vs line -2.5; covers.
“but the island in 2023 is in houston brandon it is give me texans [15:30] plus two and a half this is the game we've been waiting for against jacksonville”
HOU 21, JAX 24 — Houston Texans margin -3 vs line +2.5; busts.
“Give me a Steelers money line, [23:21] minus 110 at Cincinnati.”
CIN 10, PIT 16 — Pittsburgh Steelers won; moneyline covers.
“I'm going to take Chiefs Raiders. [32:48] Give me the under, 43.5.”
LV 17, KC 31 — Combined 48; under 43.5 busts.
“commanders plus 11 at the cowboys i know [37:18] luke talked about chalk i don't understand why the cowboys shouldn't cover here except here's the one [37:23] thanksgiving stat you need to know dallas has covered one time in the last 12 thanksgivings”
DAL 45, WSH 10 — Washington Commanders margin -35 vs line +11; busts.
“i like tyreek hill over 77 and a half [38:52] receiving yards jets defense obviously has been great but they have not been great against spider”
NYJ 13, MIA 34 — Tyreek Hill: 102 receiving_yards vs over 77.5; covers. (Tyreek Hill: 102 receiving_yards)
“Give me that Thanksgiving night under [28:08] Niners Seahawks under 44.”
SEA 13, SF 31 — Combined 44; under 44 pushes.
“So I want Raiders Chiefs under 44 and a half.”
LV 17, KC 31 — Combined 48; under 44.5 busts.
“Give me the New York Jets plus seven at the Bills”
BUF 32, NYJ 6 — New York Jets margin -26 vs line +7; busts.
“So give me Josh Jacobs, over 61.5 rushing yards.”
MIA 20, LV 13 — Josh Jacobs: 39 rushing_yards vs over 61.5; busts. (Josh Jacobs: 39 rushing_yards)
“with Travis Kelsey, anytime touchdown, minus 115 in that huge Monday night game.”
Travis Kelce caught a TD from Mahomes in Chiefs' 21-17 loss to Eagles. (Kelce 1 receiving TD)
“Lions minus seven and a half home on Thanksgiving against the Packers”
DET 22, GB 29 — Detroit Lions margin -7 vs line -7.5; busts.
“Give me the under, 38 and a half, Steelers-Browns.”
CLE 13, PIT 10 — Combined 23; under 38.5 covers.
“Give me the New York football giants plus [27:06] 10 at the commanders”
WSH 19, NYG 31 — New York Giants margin +12 vs line +10; covers.
“I think this is the spot where Seattle puts it together. I'll go Seahawks minus [7:15] six.”
SEA 29, WSH 26 — Seattle Seahawks margin +3 vs line -6; busts.
“We're going to the Jets-Raiders. I'm going to take the under 37.”
DAL 49, NYG 17 — Combined 66; under 37 busts.
“give me Austin Eckler to score an anytime touchdown [24:50] against the Lions and even the plus 100 odds”
Austin Ekeler scored a rushing TD vs the Lions in Week 10 (Lions won 41-38). (Ekeler 2-yd rushing TD)
“Steelers, plus four and a half at the Browns.”
PIT 23, GB 19 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin +4 vs line +4.5; covers.
“Steelers four and a half and I'll take the Moneyline two plus 180.”
PIT 23, GB 19 — Pittsburgh Steelers won; moneyline covers.
“I'm going to take the Steelers minus two and a half against the Packers this week.”
PIT 23, GB 19 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin +4 vs line -2.5; covers.
“give me the Seahawks minus five and a half home against the Commanders.”
SEA 29, WSH 26 — Seattle Seahawks margin +3 vs line -5.5; busts.
“I'm going to take the Chiefs minus one against the Dolphins, obviously in a neutral field here.”
KC 21, MIA 14 — Kansas City Chiefs margin +7 vs line -1; covers.
“gonna go on record for the over 64 and a half because it's at minus 110 but plus 160 is 10”
CAR 13, IND 27 — Jonathan Taylor: 47 rushing_yards vs over 64.5; busts. (Jonathan Taylor: 47 rushing_yards)
“I'm taking the Bears plus eight and a half, and I'm absolutely sprinkling the Moneyline upset special plus 330.”
NO 24, CHI 17 — Chicago Bears margin -7 vs line +8.5; covers.
“I'm taking the Bears plus eight and a half, and I'm absolutely sprinkling the Moneyline upset special plus 330.”
NO 24, CHI 17 — Chicago Bears lost; moneyline busts.
“I'm going to take the Detroit Lions plus one and a half at the Chargers next week.”
LAC 38, DET 41 — Detroit Lions margin +3 vs line +1.5; covers.
“so let's do Steelers Titans under 37 and a half”
PIT 20, TEN 16 — Combined 36; under 37.5 covers.
“give me the chiefs minus two against the dolphins”
KC 21, MIA 14 — Kansas City Chiefs margin +7 vs line -2; covers.
“let's do detroit lions minus eight against the raiders hello detroit”
DET 26, LV 14 — Detroit Lions margin +12 vs line -8; covers.
“So I'll take the Ravens first half minus four and a half.”
ARI 24, BAL 31 — Baltimore Ravens margin +7 vs line -4.5; covers.
“I'll take the Titans plus three.”
TEN 28, ATL 23 — Tennessee Titans margin +5 vs line +3; covers.
“give me the texans minus two and a half at home against the buccaneers”
HOU 39, TB 37 — Houston Texans margin +2 vs line -2.5; busts.
“Ravens minus 8 at the Cardinals and the Lions minus 7.5 against the Raiders home on Monday Night”
Parlay cashes: Ravens -2 (teased from -8) -2 — won; Lions -1.5 (teased from -7.5) -1.5 — won.
“Minus 2.5 against the Browns.”
SEA 24, CLE 20 — Seattle Seahawks margin +4 vs line -2.5; covers.
“give me the Seahawks minus seven and a half at home against the Cardinals.”
SEA 20, ARI 10 — Seattle Seahawks margin +10 vs line -7.5; covers.
“Give me the Bucs minus one just in the first half”
TB 13, ATL 16 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers margin -3 vs line -1; busts.
“If you can get the 19 and a [20:34] half, I like the over.”
BAL 38, DET 6 — Combined 44; over 19.5 covers.
“Give me Giants Commanders one score game and I tell you how we get there It a minus 114”
Giants beat Commanders 14-7, a 7-point margin — a one-score game (8 or less). (Final 14-7, 7-pt margin)
“Give me the Texans minus three in Carolina on week eight.”
CAR 15, HOU 13 — Houston Texans margin -2 vs line -3; busts.
“Give me the Jaguars and Saints under 42 and a half.”
NO 24, JAX 31 — Combined 55; under 42.5 busts.
“Give me the Browns and the Colts, under 40 and a half.”
IND 38, CLE 39 — Combined 77; under 40.5 busts.
“give me the colts plus four and a half in jacksonville”
JAX 37, IND 20 — Indianapolis Colts margin -17 vs line +4.5; busts.
“I'll just take the Ravens. I think they're much better. Give me Baltimore minus four.”
TEN 16, BAL 24 — Baltimore Ravens margin +8 vs line -4; covers.
“give me Texans money line plus 110 against the Saints”
HOU 20, NO 13 — Houston Texans won; moneyline covers.
“just give me the 49ers minus seven at my minnesota vikings on monday night football”
MIN 22, SF 17 — San Francisco 49ers margin -5 vs line -7; busts.
“For week six I going to start out with the Seahawks plus three in Cincinnati Grabbing this right now because I want that key number the plus three”
CIN 17, SEA 13 — Seattle Seahawks margin -4 vs line +3; busts.
“Give me the Indianapolis Colts plus five and a half in Jacksonville. This is a spot that I've had circled since the schedule came out.”
JAX 37, IND 20 — Indianapolis Colts margin -17 vs line +5.5; busts.
“Give me the Steelers plus four against the Ravens at home in Pittsburgh This is the spot play of all spot plays for me.”
PIT 17, BAL 10 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin +7 vs line +4; covers.
“I going to just take the Texans offense and I going to play the team total over 20 and a half and even that that plus money at a couple books too”
ATL 21, HOU 19 — Combined 40; over 20.5 covers.
“Give me the Chiefs over 27.5 against the Vikings.”
MIN 20, KC 27 — Combined 47; over 27.5 covers.
“Give me the Colts plus 5.5 in Jacksonville.”
JAX 37, IND 20 — Indianapolis Colts margin -17 vs line +5.5; busts.
“The first pick for his hot read this week, Evan, he's looking at Steelers plus four versus the Ravens. Now, I'm paraphrasing here, but this is what he had told me. This is the easiest hot read of the year. Been waiting for this all week, and he's already bet multiple units.”
PIT 17, BAL 10 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin +7 vs line +4; covers.
“next one looking at the Eagles versus the Rams he likes Eagles minus four and a half”
LAR 14, PHI 23 — Philadelphia Eagles margin +9 vs line -4.5; covers.
“Going to Thursday night and taking the 49ers minus 10 against the Giants.”
SF 30, NYG 12 — San Francisco 49ers margin +18 vs line -10; covers.
“I'm going back to my Atlanta Falcons [23:03] plus five on the road in Detroit.”
DET 20, ATL 6 — Atlanta Falcons margin -14 vs line +5; busts.
“I put this in as a bonus look ahead on the money line two plus 205 if you haven played that yet plus 180 I like the money line too I think the Falcons go to Detroit get the win on the road”
DET 20, ATL 6 — Atlanta Falcons lost; moneyline busts.
“So let me start with Cowboys Jets under 38 and a half.”
DAL 30, NYJ 10 — Combined 40; under 38.5 busts.
“give me the Colts Texans under 39 and a half”
HOU 20, IND 31 — Combined 51; under 39.5 busts.
“give me the steelers browns under 39”
PIT 26, CLE 22 — Combined 48; under 39 busts.
“Give me the Buffalo Bills minus five at the Commanders.”
WSH 3, BUF 37 — Buffalo Bills margin +34 vs line -5; covers.
“I'm going to take the Seattle Seahawks plus five and a half on the road at the Detroit Lions.”
DET 31, SEA 37 — Seattle Seahawks margin +6 vs line +5.5; covers.
“Give me the Chiefs, minus two and a half at Jacksonville.”
JAX 9, KC 17 — Kansas City Chiefs margin +8 vs line -2.5; covers.
“give me the Texans plus 10, give me the plus 390. I'll sprinkle the money line and let's get this”
BAL 25, HOU 9 — Houston Texans margin -16 vs line +10; busts.
“give me the Falcons minus three and a”
ATL 24, CAR 10 — Atlanta Falcons margin +14 vs line -3.5; covers.
“Give me the Steelers, plus two and a half at home against the 49ers.”
PIT 7, SF 30 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -23 vs line +2.5; busts.
“is the atlanta falcons my falcons just give me the money line home against the packers it's minus 110”
ATL 25, GB 24 — Atlanta Falcons won; moneyline covers.
“I will play one here just because Josh Allen 14 is the fourth favorite”
Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards in 2023 (4,624); Josh Allen did not. (Tua 4,624 led the league)
“i'm gonna go with derrick carr he's 30 to 1 at fan duel i see a 35”
Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards in 2023 (4,624); Derek Carr did not. (Tua 4,624 led the league)
“Derek Carr is minus 165.”
Baker Mayfield (4,044) led the NFC South in passing yards in 2023; Derek Carr was second (3,878). (Carr 3,878 vs Mayfield 4,044)
“i will go dak 20 to one”
Dak Prescott led the NFL in passing touchdowns in 2023 with 36. (Dak 36 passing TDs led the league)
“I'm going to go with Geno Smith.”
Sam Howell led the NFL in interceptions thrown in 2023 (21); Geno Smith did not. (Howell 21 INTs led the league)
“my long shot here is Justin Fields 30 to 1”
Sam Howell led the NFL in interceptions thrown in 2023 (21); Justin Fields did not. (Howell 21 INTs led the league)
“houston running back damian pierce i see a 40 to”
Christian McCaffrey led the NFL in rushing yards in 2023 (1,459); Dameon Pierce did not. (CMC 1,459 led the league)
“i also like jk dobbins out of baltimore i see a 40 to one out”
Christian McCaffrey led the NFL in rushing yards in 2023 (1,459); J.K. Dobbins did not (injured Week 1). (CMC 1,459 led the league)
“Montgomery was my long shot play here.”
Raheem Mostert led the NFL in rushing touchdowns in 2023 (18); David Montgomery did not. (Mostert 18 rush TDs led the league)
“I'm going to go with Austin Eckler as my”
Raheem Mostert led the NFL in rushing TDs (18) in 2023; Ekeler did not lead. (Ekeler had 5 rushing TDs)
“7.5 rush touchdowns at FanDuel is his line I know that you and Kerner love to go under”
Bet was under 7.5 rushing TDs; Ekeler finished with 5 rushing TDs in 2023. (Ekeler: 5 rushing TDs (628 rush yds, 14 games))
“So me and Carter, Amin Rasain Brown, let's go.”
CeeDee Lamb led the NFL in receptions (135) in 2023; Amon-Ra St. Brown did not lead. (St. Brown: 119 receptions)
“I'm going to go with a long shot here as Chris Olave, 40 to one.”
CeeDee Lamb led the NFL in receptions (135) in 2023; Chris Olave did not lead. (Olave: 87 receptions)
“you can take olave at plus 155 to leave the division in”
Mike Evans led the NFC South in receiving yards (1,255) in 2023; Olave (1,163) was second. (Olave 1,163 yds vs Evans 1,255 yds)
“he's my favorite here so kind of going for the double like Jefferson hit”
Tyreek Hill led the NFL in receiving yards (1,799) in 2023; Olave did not lead. (Olave: 1,163 receiving yards)
“Calvin Ridley's my dude this year”
Tyreek Hill led the NFL in receiving yards (1,799) in 2023; Calvin Ridley did not lead. (Ridley: 1,016 receiving yards)
“250 to lead the division in yards I like him above the other”
Nico Collins led the AFC South in receiving yards (1,297) in 2023; Ridley (1,016) did not. (Ridley 1,016 yds vs Collins 1,297 yds)
“Ridley is my guy here. And again, similar to Olave, if I had to play only one Ridley pick, I'll go with the touchdowns here. I'm getting him at 28 to 1 at FanDuel.”
Mike Evans/Tyreek Hill tied for the NFL receiving-TD lead (13) in 2023; Ridley did not lead. (Ridley: 8 receiving TDs)
“Give me the Dallas Cowboys, 14 to 1.”
The Baltimore Ravens had the best regular-season record in the 2023 NFL season at 13-4; the Dallas Cowboys finished 12-5 and did not have the best record (Pro-Football-Reference). (Cowboys: 12-5 final record)
“You can take an alt line I see an over 12 and a half so 13 and 4 a season [7:37] That's plus 425.”
The Dallas Cowboys finished the 2023 regular season with a 12-5 record, falling short of the 13-4 required for the over 12.5 wins at this alt line (Pro-Football-Reference, StatMuse). (Cowboys: 12-5)
“And I will take the Super Bowl ticket, 15 to 1, because if you are the one seed, you've [8:04] got a chance to win the Super Bowl.”
The Dallas Cowboys lost to the Green Bay Packers 48-32 in the 2023 NFC Wild Card round and did not win Super Bowl LVIII; the Kansas City Chiefs won (NFL.com). (Cowboys: eliminated in Wild Card round)
“Give me my local Chicago Bears, 25 to one. [20:51] I will bet against Justin Fields two ways.”
The Carolina Panthers finished the 2023 season with the NFL's worst record at 2-15; the Chicago Bears went 7-10, far from the worst (StatMuse, Pro-Football-Reference). (Bears: 7-10; Panthers: 2-15 (worst))
“So Atlanta is plus 110 to make the playoffs.”
The Falcons finished 7-10 and missed the playoffs, finishing 3rd in the NFC South; they were eliminated on the final day of the regular season (Wikipedia). (7-10 record, missed playoffs)
“in with my [30:36] Houston Texans 11 to 1 worst to first division winner that is my pick”
The Texans won the AFC South with a 10-7 record in 2023, becoming the first team to win a division under both a rookie head coach (DeMeco Ryans) and rookie QB (C.J. Stroud) in the same season (NFL.com). (10-7 record, AFC South champions)
“this year's worst to [30:43] first actually Atlanta is my pick too so give me Atlanta plus 220”
The Falcons did not win the NFC South; the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the division with a 9-8 record, while Atlanta finished 7-10 in 3rd place (FOX Sports). (Falcons 7-10, Buccaneers won NFC South at 9-8)
“Gave me the Bears 22 to one.”
The New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers tied for fewest points scored in 2023 at 236; the Chicago Bears scored 360 points and were not the lowest-scoring team (StatMuse / Pro-Football-Reference). (Bears 360 pts scored; Patriots/Panthers tied last at 236)
“I'm going to take the Indianapolis Colts 25 to 1 to have a defense that is hopefully [38:57] leaking points all year.”
The Washington Commanders allowed the most points in 2023 at 518 points (30.5 per game); the Colts allowed 415 points and ranked 28th in the league (Yahoo Sports / StatMuse). (Colts 415 pts allowed (28th); Commanders led league at 518)
“Give me my Houston Texans. I told [41:28] you I had more from them. 70 to 1, baby.”
The Baltimore Ravens allowed the fewest points in the 2023 NFL season with 280 points (16.5 per game); the Texans allowed 353 points (11th in league) (StatMuse / Pro-Football-Reference). (Texans 353 pts allowed (11th); Ravens led fewest at 280)
“so 11 to 1 buccaneers last winless team”
The Carolina Panthers were the last team to record a win in 2023, getting their first victory in Week 8 on October 29 (Panthers 15, Texans 13); the Buccaneers were not the last winless team (ESPN). (Panthers last to win (Week 8, Oct 29))
“I take the Bills 11 they my number one team overall”
The Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers tied as the last undefeated teams in 2023, both starting 5-0 before losing in Week 6; the Bills were not the last undefeated team (Pro-Football-Reference). (Eagles and 49ers last undefeated (5-0 through Week 5))
“i'm taking tinkery [52:54] bay 40 to 1”
The Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers tied as the last undefeated teams in 2023 at 5-0 before losing in Week 6; the Packers were not the last undefeated team (Pro-Football-Reference). (Eagles and 49ers last undefeated (5-0 through Week 5))
“I'm going to take Robert Sala, 33-1.”
Josh McDaniels of the Las Vegas Raiders was the first head coach fired in the 2023 NFL season, dismissed on October 31, 2023 after a 3-5 start; Robert Saleh was not fired during the 2023 season (NFL.com / Field Gulls). (McDaniels fired Oct 31 (first); Saleh not fired in 2023)
“give me the 49ers under alternate under seven and a half wins plus 650”
The San Francisco 49ers finished the 2023 regular season 12-5, well over the 7.5-win line, per Pro-Football-Reference.com.
“give me the buffalo bills to finish dead last in their division nine to one”
The Buffalo Bills won the AFC East for the fourth consecutive year with an 11-6 record; the New England Patriots finished last at 4-13, per NFL.com 2023 standings.
“atlanta to make the conference finals 10 to 1 odds”
The Atlanta Falcons finished 7-10 in 2023 and missed the playoffs entirely, falling far short of the NFC Championship Game, per Pro-Football-Reference.com.
“Anthony Richardson to lead all quarterbacks [1:07:24] in rushing yards”
Anthony Richardson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 5 and finished with only 136 rushing yards; Lamar Jackson led all QBs with 821 rushing yards in 2023, per StatMuse. (Richardson: 136 rush yds (4 games); Jackson led with 821 rush yds)
“I think if you just want to make one bet right [12:06] now for MVP and I'm out and I'll ride this ticket to the end I think Mahomes is the guy”
Lamar Jackson won the 2023 NFL MVP award; Patrick Mahomes did not win MVP (Bleacher Report). (Mahomes: 4,183 pass yds, 27 TD, 11 INT)
“I'm gonna give you a pick that'll make Jill happy my guy [13:33] Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys 25 to 1”
Lamar Jackson won the 2023 NFL MVP award; Dak Prescott did not win MVP (Bleacher Report). (Prescott: 4,516 pass yds, 36 TD, 9 INT)
“Brock Purdy, 50 to one. I have to consider him for MVP.”
Lamar Jackson won the 2023 NFL MVP award; Brock Purdy did not win MVP (Bleacher Report). (Purdy: 4,280 pass yds, 31 TD, 11 INT)
“So I would rather that you got the ticket at plus 450 or 400, but 300 is still good value to me.”
C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans won the 2023 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award with 48 of 50 first-place votes; Bijan Robinson did not win (NFL.com). (Robinson: 976 rush yds, 487 rec yds, 8 TD)
“Give me the favorite, Will Anderson. [35:08] Anderson, stick together, plus 500.”
Will Anderson Jr. of the Houston Texans won the 2023 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award with 7.0 sacks and 67 pressures in his rookie season (NFL.com). (7.0 sacks, 45 tackles, 10 TFL)
“So give me Arthur Smith, Atlanta, plus 1,400.”
Kevin Stefanski of the Cleveland Browns won the 2023 AP NFL Coach of the Year; Arthur Smith finished 7-10 and was fired, not winning the award (NFL.com, Bleacher Report). (Atlanta: 7-10 final record)
“Give me D'Amico Ryans, Houston, plus 2,500. [45:51] He's my favorite if I only played one.”
Kevin Stefanski of the Cleveland Browns won the 2023 AP NFL Coach of the Year on a tiebreaker over DeMeco Ryans (165-165 points, 21 vs 20 first-place votes); Ryans was the runner-up (Bleacher Report). (Ryans: runner-up in voting)
“and then Matt LaFleur plus 1600 Green Bay. [45:56] So I'm going to play all three of those together.”
Kevin Stefanski of the Cleveland Browns won the 2023 AP NFL Coach of the Year; Matt LaFleur did not win the award (NFL.com). (Green Bay: missed playoffs)
“my favorite pick here is 65 to one, a different sophomore. [58:40] Give me Chris Olave on the Saints.”
Christian McCaffrey won the 2023 AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year; Chris Olave did not win the award (NFL.com). (Olave: did not win award)
“But I'll take Tyreek Hill 20-1 as well.”
Christian McCaffrey won the 2023 AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year over Tyreek Hill 222-139 in voting; Hill finished as runner-up (NFL.com). (Hill: runner-up in OPOY voting)
“so Micah Parsons he would be my top pick he's got the best [1:04:23] odds plus 550”
Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns won the 2023 AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year, edging T.J. Watt 165-140; Micah Parsons finished third (NFL.com, Bleacher Report). (Parsons: third in DPOY voting)
“Miles Garrett for Cleveland plus 800”
Myles Garrett of the Cleveland Browns won the 2023 AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year with 14 sacks, edging T.J. Watt 165-140 (NFL.com, Bleacher Report). (14 sacks, led Browns defense)
“TJ Watt Pittsburgh I had him last year had [1:04:31] interception in the sack the first game and then he got hurt sorry for me he's plus 850 I'm gonna [1:04:36] take all three”
Myles Garrett won the 2023 AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year; T.J. Watt of Pittsburgh finished as the runner-up, 165-140 in points (Bleacher Report). (Watt: runner-up in DPOY voting)
“So I love 11 to one worst to first. Houston's my outright favorite.”
Houston completed a worst-to-first run, winning the AFC South at 10-7.
“Dameko Ryan's coach of the year, I think, is in play. 25 to one, that's one of my favorite coach of the year bets.”
Kevin Stefanski won Coach of the Year on a tiebreaker over runner-up DeMeco Ryans.
“my absolute favorite bet on Houston, and my this is literally my favorite bet of the entire preseason circuit is the bet that you already bet against, Chad. Give me my guy Anderson, Will Anderson, to win defensive rookie of the year at five to one.”
Will Anderson Jr. won Defensive Rookie of the Year.
“I think the defense makes a leap to make the playoffs. Give me the 11 to one playoffs.”
Houston won the AFC South and made the playoffs as the No. 4 seed.
“Worst to first division. Atlanta is my other pick here. Much shorter odds. It's plus two twenty on that one.”
Tampa Bay won the NFC South at 9-8; Atlanta finished 7-10.
“Arthur Smith coach of the year is 14 to one. I'm playing both of those.”
Kevin Stefanski won Coach of the Year; Arthur Smith's Falcons went 7-10 and he was fired.
“then the path is open if the falcons are really good to be the two seed. And if the falcons are the two seed, give me a 10 to one conference finals appearance from the Atlanta falcons.”
Atlanta went 7-10 and missed the playoffs, never reaching the NFC Championship.
“Bijan Robinson, offensive rookie of the year, three to one. I took that plus four fifty on draft night. I still like it three to one.”
C.J. Stroud won Offensive Rookie of the Year; Robinson was not a finalist.
“Division, almost two to one in most books. So give me the division. Effectively, that's just a head to head bet. Do I like the cowboys or the eagles? I'm gonna bet on the cowboys.”
Dallas won the NFC East at 12-5, edging Philadelphia on tiebreakers.
“Give me the one seed plus six fifty.”
San Francisco (12-5) earned the NFC's No. 1 seed; Dallas was the No. 2 seed.
“Most wins at bat three six five is 14 to one. I like the alternate over 12 and a half. That's plus four twenty five. You get 13 wins or more. Probably gonna do that.”
Dallas finished 12-5, falling one win short of the 12.5 alt-wins line.
“Plus 450 at bet 365, I think is a good number for Scoot. [13:38] That was my bet in the article. [13:39] That's the way I'm fading Limbanyama right now.”
Victor Wembanyama won 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year unanimously; Scoot Henderson did not win.
“I like Brandon Miller to go number four in the draft, because if he's”
Brandon Miller was drafted 2nd overall by Charlotte, not 4th, so the +2500 bet lost.
“I'm going to bet on Asar to go ahead of Amon.”
Amen Thompson went 4th to Houston and Ausar Thompson went 5th to Detroit, so Ausar was NOT drafted before Amen; bet lost.
“So I'll bet the over on him. [40:10] It's minus 160, but I'll drink the juice on that one.”
GG Jackson was drafted 45th overall, well over the 26.5 line, so the over (-160) won.
“Jordan Walsh to go first round. [40:20] If you can still get it 30 to one, I think I see it right now. [40:23] That's 365 is 16 to one.”
Jordan Walsh was drafted 38th overall (second round) by Boston, not in the first round, so the +1600 bet lost.
“Offensive rookie of the year, I love Bijan Robinson. I bet him the night of the draft. I I looked for the odds the moment that the pick got made. We knew it was coming, but here are some things I googled when Bijan Robinson officially went to the falcons.”
Offensive Rookie of the Year went to C.J. Stroud, not Bijan Robinson.
“That's where I'm going. Only one defender in the top three. Give me Will Anderson. I see a plus 500 out there.”
Will Anderson Jr. of the Texans won 2023 Defensive Rookie of the Year.
“Give me Warriors to have a two to one series lead. [17:52] We're at plus 120 on that one.”
After three games the Kings held a 2-1 series lead over the Warriors (Kings won Games 1 and 2, Warriors won Game 3), not the Warriors 2-1, per Basketball-Reference.
“I'm going to play the Celtics sweep too. [31:06] I'll play a little bit of the plus 280 for the sweep.”
The Celtics defeated the Hawks 4-2 in the 2023 Eastern Conference First Round, not a sweep, per Basketball-Reference.
“Give me the Eastern [32:18] Conference to win the title to minus 130.”
The Denver Nuggets (Western Conference) defeated the Miami Heat 4-1 in the 2023 NBA Finals, so the Eastern Conference did not win the title, per NPR.
“give me lebron james plus 1500 [35:48] Western Conference Finals MVP.”
Nikola Jokic won the 2023 Western Conference Finals MVP after Denver swept the Lakers 4-0; LeBron James did not win the award, per Basketball-Reference.
“you can bet the Grizzlies to be exactly the two seed that minus 150 that an implied 60 I like it I don see them moving off the two seed”
The Memphis Grizzlies finished as the exact No. 2 seed in the Western Conference in 2022-23 with a 51-31 record (Bleacher Report). (Grizzlies 51-31, 2 seed West)
“First bet under five and a half seed So I need the Kings to be the five seed or better This is my base bet”
The Sacramento Kings finished as the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference in 2022-23 with a 48-34 record, which is under 5.5 (Bleacher Report). (Kings 48-34, 3 seed West)
“plus 500 to be the outright four seed, all I had to do was pass one of those two teams, plus 800, my favorite bet, to be the three seed.”
The Sacramento Kings finished as the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference in 2022-23, not the 4 seed (Bleacher Report). (Kings 48-34, 3 seed West)
“plus 800, my favorite bet, to be the three seed.”
The Sacramento Kings finished as the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference in 2022-23 with a 48-34 record (Bleacher Report). (Kings 48-34, 3 seed West)
“you get them at a plus 240 to make the play. And I have to take that bet.”
The Oklahoma City Thunder finished 10th in the West and participated in the play-in tournament but lost their second play-in game to the Minnesota Timberwolves and did not qualify for the playoffs (Wikipedia, 2022-23 OKC Thunder season). (Thunder 40-42, lost play-in)
“I'm taking Mac McClung because he's going to win the dunk contest.”
Mac McClung won the 2023 Slam Dunk Contest, defeating Trey Murphy III in the final. (Multiple perfect 50 scores)
“I'll take my second choice on the board, Damian Lillard. So plus 470 on FanDuel for Damian Lillard.”
Damian Lillard won the 2023 Three-Point Contest, defeating Buddy Hield 26-25 in the final round. (Lillard 26, Hield 25 (final round))
“Give me the Cleveland Browns plus 4,500.”
The Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LVIII over the San Francisco 49ers 25-22 in OT; the Cleveland Browns did not reach the Super Bowl (CBS Sports).
“Trey Lance, 50-1 odds right now.”
Trey Lance was traded to the Dallas Cowboys in August 2023 and did not win the NFL MVP; Patrick Mahomes won the 2023 NFL MVP (Pro Football Reference).
“Give me Philly halftime full-time plus 160.”
Parlay busts: Eagles halftime lead — lost; Eagles ML — lost.
“i gotta do it davante one more time plus 3100”
Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl LVII MVP; DeVonta Smith did not win the award, per NFL.com.
“so philly defense anytime touchdown plus 750”
The Eagles defense did not score a defensive touchdown in Super Bowl LVII; the only non-offensive TD was a Nick Bolton (Chiefs LB) fumble return, per Wikipedia.
“but I'm going to lead at the half and win the game on the money line. Give me that at plus 160.”
Eagles led at halftime (24-14) but lost Super Bowl LVII 38-35, so lead-at-half-and-win lost.
“Give me Devante Smith, Super Bowl MVP, plus 3,100.”
DeVonta Smith did not win Super Bowl LVII MVP (Mahomes did).
“whatever it is i have to play that one”
The Eagles defense did not score a touchdown in Super Bowl LVII.
“i like the under here under 46 and a half”
PHI 31, SF 7 — Combined 38; under 46.5 covers.
“Give me the Devante Smith receiving yards over 65 and a half. So you've heard the case from both of them already.”
PHI 31, SF 7 — DeVonta Smith: 36 receiving_yards vs over 65.5; busts. (DeVonta Smith: 36 receiving_yards)
“my favorite line I'm seeing right now is a plus a half at just under even money there, or you can just do the money line if you want.”
KC 23, CIN 20 — Cincinnati Bengals margin -3 vs line +0.5; busts.
“I'm on Jacksonville Jaguars. Give me the plus nine.”
KC 27, JAX 20 — Jacksonville Jaguars margin -7 vs line +9; covers.
“I'm going to take the Eagles just the first half, minus three and a half against the Giants.”
PHI 38, NYG 7 — Philadelphia Eagles margin +31 vs line -3.5; covers.
“Josh Allen over 42 and a half, 45 and a half, whatever you need to get to get the lowest one you can find, get the rushing yards.”
BUF 10, CIN 27 — Josh Allen: 26 rushing_yards vs over 42.5; busts. (Josh Allen: 26 rushing_yards)
“i grabbed buffalo minus three and a half right when it first came out on sunday [36:01] evening just because if those guys are out then that is a big big problem for cincinnati against [36:07] buffalo”
BUF 10, CIN 27 — Buffalo Bills margin -17 vs line -3.5; busts.
“I like the Chargers then at Jacksonville. I like them still now. We got it at minus two, I think, on Sunday night. It dipped all the way down to minus one and a half, even one at some books. We're back up to two and a half right now.”
JAX 31, LAC 30 — Los Angeles Chargers margin -1 vs line -2.5; busts.
“At FanDuel, you can play Giants plus six and a half and Vikings plus six and a half in the same game parlay at plus 133.”
Parlay busts: Giants +6.5 +6.5 — won; Vikings +6.5 +6.5 — lost.
“I love Hawkinson over four and a half reception. That's my top prop of the week”
MIN 24, NYG 31 — T.J. Hockenson: 10 receptions vs over 4.5; covers. (T.J. Hockenson: 10 receptions)
“I'm with Luke. I'm going to be on the Bucs plus two and a half.”
TB 14, DAL 31 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers margin -17 vs line +2.5; busts.
“Give me the Chargers minus one and a half.”
JAX 31, LAC 30 — Los Angeles Chargers margin -1 vs line -1.5; busts.
“so my play here is Titans plus six six and a half if [9:11] you can get it and the under 40 I'm gonna play them both together I think it's correlated and [9:15] I'll explain why. So plus 271 or best number you get on the same game parlay there.”
Parlay cashes: Titans +6.5 +6.5 — won; Under 40 +40 — won.
“But under 40 and a half, that's my favorite total this week.”
PIT 28, CLE 14 — Combined 42; under 40.5 busts.
“I'm going to stick with just Rams plus [34:23] six and a half but I think that you want to play this multiple ways”
SEA 19, LAR 16 — Los Angeles Rams margin -3 vs line +6.5; covers.
“but if i was going to pick something a side or total in [51:08] this game i'd go with the under under 49 and a half some trends that fit their home underdogs [51:15] this year unders have hit 65 we know about the prime time unders trend”
Game suspended after Damar Hamlin's collapse and never resumed; ruled a no-contest, total bets were voided/refunded by sportsbooks. (Score at stoppage: Bills 7, Bengals 3 (game not completed, no contest))
“my favorite bet from this game [53:46] is Josh Allen rushing yards overs.”
Game suspended in the 1st quarter after Damar Hamlin's collapse and never resumed; the full-game rushing-yards prop could never settle and was voided/refunded. (Game stopped early in Q1 (game not completed, no contest))
“60 plus yards He done that half of the time eight of 17 That plus 182”
Game suspended in the 1st quarter after Damar Hamlin's collapse and never resumed; the full-game rushing-yards prop could never settle and was voided/refunded. (Game stopped early in Q1 (game not completed, no contest))
“70 plus yards. He's done that five times this year, all against playoff teams, presumably.”
Game suspended in the 1st quarter after Damar Hamlin's collapse and never resumed; the full-game rushing-yards prop could never settle and was voided/refunded. (Game stopped early in Q1 (game not completed, no contest))
“I got to abandon Seattle Island again Rams plus six and a half plus seven if you [57:37] can see it, in Seattle.”
SEA 19, LAR 16 — Los Angeles Rams margin -3 vs line +6.5; covers.
“give me a brown steelers under 40 and a half for next week steelers are at 41 or under in seven of [58:16] their last eight games.”
PIT 28, CLE 14 — Combined 42; under 40.5 busts.
“Give me the under here under 41 and a half. I grabbed this at 43 earlier in the week. I still like it at 41 and a half anywhere in the 40s really.”
NE 23, MIA 21 — Combined 44; under 41.5 busts.
“Give me lions minus three and a [20:26] half just in the first half”
DET 41, CHI 10 — Detroit Lions margin +31 vs line -3.5; covers.
“i'm going to do the same game parlay plus 239 [28:10] so jets minus one and a half and the under 42 and a half together”
Parlay busts: Jets -1.5 -1.5 — lost; Under 42.5 +42.5 — lost.
“Give me the New Orleans Saints [42:30] against the Eagles this week, plus 230. [42:34] But parlay that with next week, [42:36] the Cowboys to beat Washington plus 170. So combine that together, you get a plus 791.”
Parlay busts: Saints ML — won; Cowboys ML — lost.
“the play i made already you may have [17:02] seen in the app i took the under on this one i took it at 43”
NE 23, MIA 21 — Combined 44; under 43 busts.
“I took the Ravens under against the Steelers for this coming week. [40:30] I took that on the look ahead at 42.”
BAL 13, PIT 16 — Combined 29; under 42 covers.
“I'm going to grab that Packers at the minus three. [53:42] I'll take the juice. [53:43] I want the three.”
GB 41, MIN 17 — Green Bay Packers margin +24 vs line -3; covers.
“So I like the Cowboys here. [57:15] Big Thursday night favorites typically do well. [57:18] So I'm going to grab the 9.5 if you can get it, or the 10 if you need to.”
TEN 13, DAL 27 — Dallas Cowboys margin +14 vs line -10; covers.
“i am gonna bet [51:10] it actually i quite like the packers here”
GB 24, LAR 12 — Green Bay Packers margin +12 vs line -7; covers.
“but I still love Alan Lazard in this spot at plus 270.”
Allen Lazard had 1 reception for 7 yards and 0 touchdowns in the Packers 24–12 win over the Rams on MNF Week 15. Anytime TD bet loses. Source: ESPN box score (gameId 401437916). (1 rec / 7 yds / 0 TD)
“I did Packers plus four and a half in Miami on the look ahead that line is still out there”
MIA 20, GB 26 — Green Bay Packers margin +6 vs line +4.5; covers.
“Give me the Lions minus two and a half at Carolina.”
CAR 37, DET 23 — Detroit Lions margin -14 vs line -2.5; busts.
“Pittsburgh plus three at Carolina. [4:10] I like the plus three. [4:11] I like the money line, too.”
CAR 16, PIT 24 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin +8 vs line +3; covers.
“I'm going to take the [12:22] Ravens plus three in Cleveland”
CLE 13, BAL 3 — Baltimore Ravens margin -10 vs line +3; busts.
“I'm going to go to commanders giants and I'm going to take the [23:41] under here under 40 and a half.”
NYJ 17, DET 20 — Combined 37; under 40.5 covers.
“I'm going to grab the Packers plus four on the road in Miami.”
MIA 20, GB 26 — Green Bay Packers margin +6 vs line +4; covers.
“This is my favorite spread of the week, and usually it's not the case on a Monday night game,”
ARI 13, NE 27 — New England Patriots margin +14 vs line -1.5; covers.
“I don't buy this Panthers team. I'm going to Carolina and I'm taking the road”
CAR 16, PIT 24 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin +8 vs line +2.5; covers.
“I'm grabbing Bill Belichick and the Patriots minus one and a half at Arizona at Cliff Kingsbury's Cardinals.”
ARI 13, NE 27 — New England Patriots margin +14 vs line -1.5; covers.
“I'm going to take the Eagles Giants under 45 and a half.”
BUF 20, NYJ 12 — Combined 32; under 45.5 covers.
“I'm going to play the Bengals second half minus three.”
CIN 23, CLE 10 — Cincinnati Bengals margin +13 vs line -3; covers.
“i'll take the baltimore ravens plus three in the cleveland”
CLE 13, BAL 3 — Baltimore Ravens margin -10 vs line +3; busts.
“so I'll play a Saints cover and an under 40 and a half”
Parlay cashes: Saints +3.5 +3.5 — won; Under 40.5 +40.5 — won.
“so give me it anywhere below the key number of three and I'll be glad”
LAC 23, MIA 17 — Miami Dolphins margin -6 vs line -1.5; busts.
“I will take the Titans plus four and a half on the road in Philly.”
PHI 35, TEN 10 — Tennessee Titans margin -25 vs line +4.5; busts.
“I'm going to go with the Detroit Lions. [10:05] Minus one at home against the Jaguars.”
DET 40, JAX 14 — Detroit Lions margin +26 vs line -1; covers.
“I'm going to Houston and I'm taking the 1-8-1 Houston Texans as a plus. [20:00] seven underdog at home against the debut of Deshaun Watson.”
HOU 14, CLE 27 — Houston Texans margin -13 vs line +7; busts.
“yeah I gotta sprinkle the plus 270 money line let's get the Texans a win here”
HOU 14, CLE 27 — Houston Texans lost; moneyline busts.
“Give me Tennessee at home minus three and a half against Jacksonville”
TEN 22, JAX 36 — Tennessee Titans margin -14 vs line -3.5; busts.
“But I do like the Steelers here. [50:51] I think they have a good chance to win outright.”
IND 17, PIT 24 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin +7 vs line +3; covers.
“I take the Steelers and the Raiders teaser [54:41] grabbing it now because a lot of times when there's an obvious teaser like this”
Parlay cashes: Steelers +7.5 +7.5 — won; Raiders +8.5 +8.5 — won.
“So I'll take the eight and a half in Arizona.”
ARI 10, SF 38 — Arizona Cardinals margin -28 vs line +8.5; busts.
“so i will take the under 42 and a half and i expect this line to drop”
MIN 33, NE 26 — Combined 59; under 42.5 busts.
“I'm going to take the underdog Arizona Cardinals plus [6:43] eight and a half against the 49ers.”
ARI 10, SF 38 — Arizona Cardinals margin -28 vs line +8.5; busts.
“Bears over team total 22 and a half. This is a Justin Fields play.”
ATL 27, CHI 24 — Combined 51; over 22.5 covers.
“We're going with Rah-Rah, Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers, [24:47] plus four at home against the Bengals.”
PIT 30, CIN 37 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -7 vs line +4; busts.
“So I'll take the Ravens minus three and a half before they blow out the Panthers.”
JAX 28, BAL 27 — Baltimore Ravens margin -1 vs line -3.5; busts.
“so first half play is a minus six and a half”
PHI 21, WSH 32 — Philadelphia Eagles margin -11 vs line -6.5; busts.
“I'll take the Bills minus eight and a half at home in a bounce back spot against the Browns.”
BUF 31, CLE 23 — Buffalo Bills margin +8 vs line -8.5; busts.
“Seattle Seahawks plus two and a half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.”
TB 21, SEA 16 — Seattle Seahawks margin -5 vs line +2.5; busts.
“I'm going to go with the Miami Dolphins, [13:40] minus three and a half against the Cleveland Browns.”
MIA 39, CLE 17 — Miami Dolphins margin +22 vs line -3.5; covers.
“Going with the Pittsburgh Steelers at home, [22:44] underdogs to the New Orleans Saints.”
PIT 20, NO 10 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin +10 vs line +1.5; covers.
“We're going to go with the New York football giants minus three and a half at home against the Lions next week.”
NYG 18, DET 31 — New York Giants margin -13 vs line -3.5; busts.
“We'll take Ravens first half minus a half point and basically just go out”
NO 13, BAL 27 — Baltimore Ravens margin +14 vs line -0.5; covers.
“I'm going to take Dolphins minus four against the Browns.”
MIA 39, CLE 17 — Miami Dolphins margin +22 vs line -4; covers.
“Seahawks plus two in Arizona”
ARI 21, SEA 31 — Seattle Seahawks margin +10 vs line +2; covers.
“the Green Bay Packers minus 3.5”
DET 15, GB 9 — Green Bay Packers margin -6 vs line -3.5; busts.
“I will take my hometown or home suburban area town,”
CHI 32, MIA 35 — Chicago Bears margin -3 vs line +4.5; covers.
“i like the steelers plus two and a half at home against the saints next week you hear that”
PIT 20, NO 10 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin +10 vs line +2.5; covers.
“Yeah, I still like the Bengals here. [36:24] I can't say I love the Bengals here. [36:26] I'm in like a little bit.”
CLE 32, CIN 13 — Cincinnati Bengals margin -19 vs line -3.5; busts.
“you're going Seahawks back to the island Seattle Island plus two and a half in Arizona”
ARI 21, SEA 31 — Seattle Seahawks margin +10 vs line +2.5; covers.
“so i'm playing tyree kill offensive player of the year [21:05] i think he was 14 to 1 into the day”
Justin Jefferson (Minnesota Vikings) won the 2022 AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year award with 35 first-place votes and 128 catches for 1,809 yards. Tyreek Hill did not win the award. Source: NFL.com NFL Honors 2022, Vikings.com. (Jefferson won OPOY; Hill runner-up)
“I going to go with the Miami Dolphins Minus three and a half at the Lions”
DET 27, MIA 31 — Miami Dolphins margin +4 vs line -3.5; covers.
“We got Cincinnati [16:40] and Cleveland facing off and I will take the Bengals minus three and a half on the road.”
CLE 32, CIN 13 — Cincinnati Bengals margin -19 vs line -3.5; busts.
“But I'll take the Rams to win the first half. [32:48] But the Niners to win the game, you can play that as a double at FanDuel. [32:52] It's plus 750.”
Parlay busts: Rams to win first half — lost; 49ers ML (full game) — won.
“give me the division, [42:56] give me Seattle plus three and a half in Arizona.”
ARI 21, SEA 31 — Seattle Seahawks margin +10 vs line +3.5; covers.
“Plus 600 is ludicrous. [42:50] And if you don't have it, you should get it. [42:52] I do have it at a longer number [42:53] and I'm adding the position.”
The San Francisco 49ers won the NFC West in 2022 with a 13-4 record. The Seattle Seahawks finished second in the division and did not win. Source: 49ers.com NFC West Champions announcement, FOX Sports NFC West Champions history. (49ers won NFC West 13-4)
“If I was betting an NFC future, that's the one I'd play right now. [18:30] Dallas, right now, plus 1,700 to win the Super Bowl.”
The Dallas Cowboys lost to the San Francisco 49ers in the 2022 NFC Divisional Round and did not reach Super Bowl LVII. Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII on February 12, 2023. Source: Pro-Football-Reference 2022 Cowboys season. (Cowboys out in Divisional Round)
“I do like New England here. I'm going to play the [35:29] first half”
NE 14, CHI 33 — New England Patriots margin -19 vs line -4.5; busts.
“I am still on Falcons next week, [40:55] minus six against the Panthers.”
ATL 37, CAR 34 — Atlanta Falcons margin +3 vs line -6; busts.
“I'm going to take the Detroit Lions coming off their bye week, plus seven in Dallas to face America's team, the Cowboys.”
DAL 24, DET 6 — Detroit Lions margin -18 vs line +7; busts.
“i do like the titans here i like the titans to cover the first half spread so minus a half point basically you're taking a titans money line here you got to win outright so titans minus a half against the colts”
TEN 19, IND 10 — Tennessee Titans margin +9 vs line -0.5; covers.
“my final pick here which is the seattle seahawks plus five and a half at the chargers”
LAC 23, SEA 37 — Seattle Seahawks margin +14 vs line +5.5; covers.
“i'm leaning broncos here and part of the reason is precisely because i hate to do it”
LAC 19, DEN 16 — Denver Broncos margin -3 vs line +4.5; covers.
“We mentioned Seattle earlier against the Chargers. still like that one if you haven't done it yet”
LAC 23, SEA 37 — Seattle Seahawks margin +14 vs line +7.5; covers.
“for my hot read i'm just going to take the undefeated against the spread atlanta falcons catching six and a half points on the road in cincinnati”
CIN 35, ATL 17 — Atlanta Falcons margin -18 vs line +6.5; busts.
“i'm going to grab it now i like atlanta if you like the money line i feel pretty good about that”
CIN 35, ATL 17 — Atlanta Falcons lost; moneyline busts.
“i'm going with the ravens on the road in new york i'm going to take the Ravens to cover the six.”
NYG 24, BAL 20 — Baltimore Ravens margin -4 vs line -6; busts.
“So I like the team total over 25 and a half. The Ravens are going to score.”
NYG 24, BAL 20 — Combined 44; over 25.5 covers.
“I like Josh Allen MVP as a money line proxy here with a much better price on it.”
Patrick Mahomes won the 2022 NFL MVP award with 48 of 50 first-place votes. Josh Allen finished 3rd in voting behind Jalen Hurts. Source: https://www.nfl.com/news/chiefs-qb-patrick-mahomes-wins-second-ap-nfl-most-valuable-player-award
“I'll take Seattle to cover the three. I'll take the money line.”
SEA 19, ARI 9 — Seattle Seahawks margin +10 vs line +3; covers.
“I'll take Seattle to cover the three. I'll take the money line.”
SEA 19, ARI 9 — Seattle Seahawks won; moneyline covers.
“And I'm on Seattle Island. I'm playing the over for the season win total.”
The Seattle Seahawks finished 9-8 in the 2022 regular season, clearing the 5.5-win total. Geno Smith led a surprise season that won the NFC West division. Source: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/sea/2022.htm
“I'm going to take the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road, plus one and a half against the Colts.”
IND 34, JAX 27 — Jacksonville Jaguars margin -7 vs line +1.5; busts.
“i have to play the jacksonville division as well plus 250 on that number”
The Jacksonville Jaguars won the AFC South in 2022 with a 9-8 record under first-year coach Doug Pederson, clinching on the final week of the regular season. Source: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/jax/2022.htm
“I am taking the Seahawks plus seven and a half at the Chargers next weekend.”
LAC 23, SEA 37 — Seattle Seahawks margin +14 vs line +7.5; covers.
“I'll take the under 39 and a half. That number is only going one direction.”
CHI 7, WSH 12 — Combined 19; under 39.5 covers.
“Yeah I going to start us off with a favorite I going to back the Miami Dolphins minus three in New York to play the Jets”
NYJ 40, MIA 17 — Miami Dolphins margin -23 vs line -3; busts.
“Chicago Bears, my local Bears, plus seven and a half on the road in Minnesota.”
MIN 29, CHI 22 — Chicago Bears margin -7 vs line +7.5; covers.
“I'll take Seattle Seahawks plus five and a half on the road in New Orleans. This”
NO 39, SEA 32 — Seattle Seahawks margin -7 vs line +5.5; busts.
“I'll play Seattle plus five and a half. I'll play Seattle money line too.”
NO 39, SEA 32 — Seattle Seahawks lost; moneyline busts.
“I'll back the Patriots, plus 9.5. [5:36] I'll take the underdog here.”
GB 27, NE 24 — New England Patriots margin -3 vs line +9.5; covers.
“I'm going to bet with Cliff Kingsbury as an underdog Cardinals plus one and a half in Carolina”
CAR 16, ARI 26 — Arizona Cardinals margin +10 vs line +1.5; covers.
“i like the cardinals here they should [13:25] be favorites i like vance joseph blitzing against maker mayfield i'll take the cardinals plus one [13:31] and a half i'll take the money line”
CAR 16, ARI 26 — Arizona Cardinals won; moneyline covers.
“I will take the Titans on the road, plus three and a half.”
IND 17, TEN 24 — Tennessee Titans margin +7 vs line +3.5; covers.
“I like the Detroit Lions. [24:49] They are one and a half point underdogs in New England next weekend.”
NE 29, DET 0 — Detroit Lions margin -29 vs line +1.5; busts.
“because I like the under. [32:59] I'm taking the under 39 and a half.”
NYG 16, DAL 23 — Combined 39; under 39.5 covers.
“You can combine the under, so under 39.5, plus the Cowboys plus 2.5.”
Parlay cashes: Cowboys +2.5 +2.5 — won; Under 39.5 +39.5 — won.
“I'll take the Bengals to cover. [36:11] Now, the Bengals right now are minus three.”
CIN 27, MIA 15 — Cincinnati Bengals margin +12 vs line -3; covers.
“I'm also take the Cardinals. I did not expect to be back in the Cardinals here.”
CAR 16, ARI 26 — Arizona Cardinals margin +10 vs line +1.5; covers.
“I'll take Titans plus 10.”
BUF 41, TEN 7 — Tennessee Titans margin -34 vs line +10; busts.
“Titans at plus 360 on the money line.”
BUF 41, TEN 7 — Tennessee Titans lost; moneyline busts.
“I'll double down and grab them again at four and a half.”
NYJ 12, CIN 27 — Cincinnati Bengals margin +15 vs line -4.5; covers.
“Steelers plus two and a half home underdogs against”
PIT 14, NE 17 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -3 vs line +2.5; busts.
“I am backing the Indianapolis Colts minus three and a half in Jacksonville.”
JAX 24, IND 0 — Indianapolis Colts margin -24 vs line -3.5; busts.
“Big favorite are Green Bay Packers minus nine and a half right now.”
GB 27, CHI 10 — Green Bay Packers margin +17 vs line -9.5; covers.
“so i'm going to the same game parley three legs i want broncos [26:02] covering the first half three and a half i want russell wilson's over on passing yards currently [26:08] at 253 and a half and i want a big broncos win 14 or more points give me all three of those”
Parlay busts: Broncos first half -3.5 -3.5 — lost; Russell Wilson over 253.5 passing yards +253.5 — won; Broncos win by 14+ points -13.5 — lost.
“but all the Mike Tomlin underdog numbers [30:26] Steelers are plus 105.”
PIT 14, NE 17 — Pittsburgh Steelers lost; moneyline busts.
“I like the Falcons. So Atlanta goes to Los [31:01] Angeles.”
LAR 31, ATL 27 — Atlanta Falcons margin -4 vs line +11.5; covers.
“We going with the Houston Texans plus seven and a half against the Indianapolis Colts”
HOU 20, IND 20 — Houston Texans margin +0 vs line +7.5; covers.
“I am backing the Eagles. I'm going to take the Eagles minus three and a half [10:43] on the road in Detroit.”
DET 35, PHI 38 — Philadelphia Eagles margin +3 vs line -3.5; busts.
“I'll take the Steelers plus six and a half in Cincinnati.”
CIN 20, PIT 23 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin +3 vs line +6.5; covers.
“I'm taking the Kansas City Chiefs minus two and a half [23:42] at home against the Chargers.”
KC 27, LAC 24 — Kansas City Chiefs margin +3 vs line -2.5; covers.
“My top projection actually is Dak Prescott. And that's my top play. I have him at 1400.”
Dak Prescott did NOT lead the NFL in passing yards in the 2022 regular season. Prescott suffered a thumb injury in Week 1 and missed several games, finishing with only 2,860 passing yards in 12 games. Patrick Mahomes led the NFL with 5,250 passing yards. Source: Wikipedia/Pro-Football-Reference Dak Prescott page; StatMuse NFL passing yards leaders 2022. (Mahomes led with 5,250 yds; Prescott 2,860 yds (12 games, injured))
“offensively so Kirk Cousins is plus 2,000 I think that he's not going to necessarily have like a”
Kirk Cousins did NOT lead the NFL in passing yards in the 2022 regular season. Cousins finished with 4,547 passing yards (a strong season), but Patrick Mahomes led the NFL with 5,250 passing yards. Source: Wikipedia Kirk Cousins page for 2022 stats; StatMuse NFL passing yards leaders 2022. (Mahomes led with 5,250 yds; Cousins 4,547 yds (4th or 5th))
“It's Russell Wilson, 1600 here. I haven't projected [14:29] for 42 touchdowns. So one off the lead very much in a play there.”
Russell Wilson did NOT lead the NFL in passing touchdowns in the 2022 regular season. Wilson threw only 16 touchdown passes in 15 games for the Denver Broncos in a disappointing season. Patrick Mahomes led with 41 TDs. Source: StatMuse Russell Wilson touchdowns in 2022; Wikipedia Russell Wilson page. (Mahomes led with 41 TD; Wilson 16 TD)
“Yeah so Kirk Cousins is my other play here at plus 2 So he at 6 touchdown the last three years”
Kirk Cousins did NOT lead the NFL in passing touchdowns in the 2022 regular season. Cousins threw 29 TDs plus 2 rushing TDs for the Vikings, a solid season but far behind Patrick Mahomes who led with 41 TDs. Source: Wikipedia Kirk Cousins 2022 stats. (Mahomes led with 41 TD; Cousins 29 passing TD)
“baker mayfield at 16 to 1 so the controversy here is is baker going to actually play all 17 games”
Baker Mayfield did NOT lead the NFL in interceptions thrown in the 2022 regular season. Mayfield threw 12 interceptions across stints with the Panthers and Rams. Geno Smith led the league with 17 interceptions. Source: Web search results confirming Geno Smith as 2022 interceptions thrown leader with 17; Mayfield with 12. (Geno Smith led with 17 INT; Mayfield 12 INT (Panthers+Rams))
“So my top play here is Rashad Penny. So Seattle running back 50 to one.”
Rashaad Penny did NOT lead the NFL in rushing yards in the 2022 regular season. Penny rushed for 749 yards in 10 games before suffering an injury and being placed on injured reserve on October 14, 2022. Josh Jacobs of the Las Vegas Raiders led the league with 1,653 rushing yards. Source: Raiders.com; web search results confirming Jacobs as 2022 rushing yards leader. (Josh Jacobs led with 1,653 rush yds; Penny 749 yds (IR Oct 14))
“I really like Josh Jacobs, 50 to one for the Raiders.”
Jamaal Williams (Detroit Lions) led the NFL in rushing touchdowns in 2022 with 17. Josh Jacobs finished with 12 rushing TDs. (Source: pro-football-reference.com, statmuse.com) (Jacobs: 12 rush TDs; Williams led with 17)
“my [43:15] receiving yards projection leader is justin jefferson that's my pick 10 to 1”
Justin Jefferson (Minnesota Vikings) led the NFL in receiving yards in 2022 with 1,809 yards. (Source: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com) (Jefferson: 1,809 rec yds (1st in NFL))
“if you're [51:47] only making one bet and you want a ticket that's going to pay off mike evans eight to one receiving [51:52] touchdowns is my guy”
Davante Adams (Las Vegas Raiders) led the NFL in receiving touchdowns in 2022 with 14. Mike Evans finished with 6 receiving touchdowns. (Source: pro-football-reference.com, wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Evans) (Evans: 6 rec TDs; Adams led with 14)
“My favorite here is Justin Jefferson, [56:08] 10 to one. Again, I have him at 130 catches, 1,850 yards.”
Justin Jefferson (Minnesota Vikings) led the NFL in receptions in 2022 with 128 catches. (Source: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com) (Jefferson: 128 receptions (1st in NFL))
“I like the Philadelphia Eagles, plus 2,000.”
The Philadelphia Eagles finished the 2022 regular season 14-3, tied with the Kansas City Chiefs for the best record in the NFL. Eagles are paid out as co-holders of best record. Source: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/index.htm
“I like the Jaguars eight to one”
The Jacksonville Jaguars won the 2022 AFC South division with a 9-8 record, defeating the Tennessee Titans in Week 18 to clinch the division title. Source: https://www.nfl.com/news/jaguars-secure-afc-south-title-win-titans-texans-wild-card
“I'll take the Seahawks at plus 750.”
The Seattle Seahawks finished 9-8 and made the playoffs in 2022; the Chicago Bears (3-14) had the worst record. Seahawks did not have the worst record. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Seattle_Seahawks_season
“so i'm going with the dallas cowboys to miss the”
The Dallas Cowboys made the 2022 playoffs with a 12-5 record, winning the NFC East. They beat Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round before losing to the 49ers in the Divisional round. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Dallas_Cowboys_season
“I'm going to go with the Titans also to miss the playoffs.”
The Tennessee Titans missed the 2022 playoffs, finishing 7-10 after a seven-game losing streak to close the season; they were eliminated in Week 18 with a loss to the Jaguars. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Tennessee_Titans_season
“Vikings one, Packers two, Lions three, Bears four. You can get that at 10 to one.”
2022 NFC North final order: 1st Vikings (13-4), 2nd Lions (9-8), 3rd Packers (8-9), 4th Bears (3-14). The pick required Vikings/Packers/Lions/Bears but Lions finished 2nd and Packers 3rd. Source: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/index.htm
“do 49ers 1 Rams 2 in their division plus 390”
2022 NFC West final order: 1st 49ers (13-4), 2nd Seahawks (9-8), 3rd Rams (5-12), 4th Cardinals. The pick required 49ers 1st/Rams 2nd but Seahawks finished 2nd and Rams 3rd. Source: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/index.htm
“Raiders to finish last in the division, plus 120.”
2022 AFC West final order: 1st Chiefs (14-3), 2nd Chargers (10-7), 3rd Raiders (6-11), 4th Broncos (5-12). The Raiders finished 3rd, not last; the Broncos finished last. Source: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/index.htm
“i'm gonna go with the lions plus 700 for detroit”
The Detroit Lions did NOT allow the most points in the 2022 NFL regular season. Detroit allowed 413 points total, ranking them second-worst. The Chicago Bears led the league with 463 points allowed (27.2/g). Source: Pro-Football-Reference 2022 NFL team stats; search results confirming Bears at 463, Lions at 413. (DET 413 pts allowed (31st); CHI 463 pts allowed (32nd, most))
“the lonesome loser, Cliff Kingsbury, plus 900 in the Arizona Cardinals.”
Kliff Kingsbury was NOT the first coach fired in the 2022 NFL regular season. Matt Rhule of the Carolina Panthers was fired first on October 10, 2022. Kingsbury was fired on January 9, 2023, after the end of the season (4-13 record). Source: NFL.com, ESPN confirming Rhule fired Oct 10 2022; Kingsbury fired Jan 9 2023. (Rhule (CAR) fired first Oct 10 2022; Kingsbury fired Jan 9 2023 end of season)
“I love my homes at plus 900.”
Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) won the 2022 AP NFL MVP award with 48 of 50 first-place votes, announced at NFL Honors on Feb 9 2023. Source: NFL.com (https://www.nfl.com/news/chiefs-qb-patrick-mahomes-wins-second-ap-nfl-most-valuable-player-award)
“I like Hurts and I like Lance.”
Patrick Mahomes won the 2022 AP NFL MVP. Trey Lance did not win (suffered season-ending injury in Week 2 of 2022 season). Source: NFL.com (https://www.nfl.com/news/chiefs-qb-patrick-mahomes-wins-second-ap-nfl-most-valuable-player-award)
“hurts at 25 to one Lance 40 to one. I like those for long shots.”
Patrick Mahomes won the 2022 AP NFL MVP. Jalen Hurts finished second in voting. Source: Bleacher Report (https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10065062-nfl-mvp-2022-23-award-winner-voting-results-and-twitter-reaction)
“I'm going to start with Brees Hall.”
Garrett Wilson (New York Jets WR) won the 2022 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Breece Hall did not win (suffered a torn ACL in Week 7 of the 2022 season). Source: NFL.com (https://www.nfl.com/news/jets-wr-garrett-wilson-named-ap-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-award)
“I'll start with just Hutchinson alone at 450.”
Ahmad 'Sauce' Gardner (New York Jets CB) won the 2022 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award. Aidan Hutchinson finished second. Source: NFL.com (https://www.nfl.com/news/jets-cb-sauce-gardner-wins-ap-nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year)
“So I like Philadelphia. Nick Sirianni is 20 to one.”
Brian Daboll (New York Giants) won the 2022 AP NFL Coach of the Year award. Nick Sirianni did not win. Source: NFL.com (https://www.nfl.com/news/giants-head-coach-brian-daboll-named-ap-nfl-coach-of-the-year-after-leading-big-)
“Philly, Minnesota, Denver at plus 550 if you put all three of them.”
Brian Daboll (New York Giants) won the 2022 AP NFL Coach of the Year award. Kevin O'Connell did not win. Source: NFL.com (https://www.nfl.com/news/giants-head-coach-brian-daboll-named-ap-nfl-coach-of-the-year-after-leading-big-)
“Nathaniel Hackett in Denver. If the Broncos do come out of that division, they've got that soft”
Brian Daboll (NY Giants) won the 2022 AP NFL Coach of the Year award; Nathaniel Hackett was fired mid-season by Denver. Source: https://www.nfl.com/news/giants-head-coach-brian-daboll-named-ap-nfl-coach-of-the-year-after-leading-big-
“50 to one is long enough for me to nibble, take a little bite.”
Justin Jefferson won the 2022 AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year; Tom Brady did not win. Source: https://www.nfl.com/news/vikings-wr-justin-jefferson-named-ap-nfl-offensive-player-of-the-year
“T.J. Watt, if you shop around nine to one on both of those guys, those numbers are way too long.”
Nick Bosa (San Francisco 49ers) won the 2022 AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year; Aaron Donald did not win. Source: https://www.nfl.com/news/niners-de-nick-bosa-named-ap-nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year
“on two guys that I think are the two best defenders in the league. It's Aaron Donald and it's TJ Watt.”
Nick Bosa (San Francisco 49ers) won the 2022 AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year; T.J. Watt did not win. Source: https://www.nfl.com/news/niners-de-nick-bosa-named-ap-nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year
“I'm taking the over on Keegan Murray at five and a half.”
Keegan Murray was drafted 4th overall, under the 5.5 draft-position line, so the over lost.
“is Okshia Akbaji, over 13 and a half.”
Ochai Agbaji was drafted 14th overall, over the 13.5 draft-position line.
“Chet has dropped and is now at plus 375 on win bet right”
Paolo Banchero (Duke) was selected No. 1 overall by the Orlando Magic in the 2022 NBA Draft on June 23, 2022. Chet Holmgren went No. 2 to the Oklahoma City Thunder. (ESPN, CBS News) (Banchero No. 1, Holmgren No. 2)
“I'm taking Keegan Murray over five and a half draft position.”
Keegan Murray was drafted No. 4 overall by the Sacramento Kings in the 2022 NBA Draft. Pick 4 is under 5.5 — the over 5.5 draft position bet loses. (CBS Sports, NBA.com) (Murray drafted No. 4)
“Benedict Matherin, you can get him at five to one right now to be the number five pick.”
Bennedict Mathurin was selected No. 6 overall by the Indiana Pacers in the 2022 NBA Draft, not No. 5. (CBS Sports, ESPN) (Mathurin drafted No. 6)
“My favorite prop on the board right now is Akshay Agbaje over 13 and a half.”
Ochai Agbaji was selected No. 14 overall by the Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2022 NBA Draft. Pick 14 is over 13.5, so this bet wins. (Fear The Sword, NBA.com) (Agbaji drafted No. 14)
“I took AJ Griffin under”
AJ Griffin was drafted 16th overall by the Atlanta Hawks, which is over the 10.5 line. Source: Basketball-Reference / Wikipedia 2022 NBA Draft. (Griffin pick 16)
“And my last one, I'm fading Jaden Hardy.”
Jaden Hardy was drafted 37th overall by the Dallas Mavericks (2nd round), well over the 23.5 line. Source: NBA.com / ClutchPoints. (Hardy pick 37)
“in the series because they got home game one. I like the Warriors minus five at home for game one”
GS 112, DAL 87 — Golden State Warriors margin +25 vs line -5; covers.
“this actually the under three and a half quarterbacks it might be my favorite bet on the [6:08] entire slate today for me like i'm seeing that minus 250 at fan duel”
Only one quarterback (Kenny Pickett, pick 20 to Pittsburgh Steelers) was selected in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft on April 28, 2022. Under 3.5 QBs in round 1 cashes. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_NFL_draft (1 QB drafted in R1 (Pickett, pick 20))
“Corral is over under 33 and a half right now, and that's at minus 135. So I agree with you. I think [7:08] Willis is a first rounder and he pickets a first rounder.”
Matt Corral was selected 94th overall (Round 3) by the Carolina Panthers in the 2022 NFL Draft on April 29, 2022. This is over the 33.5 line. Source: https://www.nfl.com/videos/panthers-select-matt-corral-with-no-94-pick-in-2022-draft (Corral drafted 94th overall (R3))
“You can get Kenneth Walker to be the first running back off [11:15] the board at plus 280 at DraftKings.”
Kenneth Walker III was NOT the first running back drafted in the 2022 NFL Draft. Breece Hall was the first RB taken, at pick 36 overall (Round 2) by the New York Jets. Walker was selected 41st overall by the Seattle Seahawks. Source: https://www.newyorkjets.com/news/breece-hall-nfl-draft-running-back-iowa-state (Breece Hall first RB drafted (pick 36); Walker drafted pick 41)
“but cal hamilton you go top 10 picks for him at draft kings plus 135”
Kyle Hamilton was drafted #14 overall by the Baltimore Ravens, not in the top 10. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_NFL_draft (Kyle Hamilton: pick #14)
“Jamison Williams to be the first receiver and Malik Willis to be the first quarterback. [30:09] You can get that together at plus 350.”
Neither parlay leg hit: Drake London (Falcons, No. 8) was the first WR drafted and Kenny Pickett (Steelers, No. 20) was the first QB drafted in the 2022 NFL Draft, not Jameson Williams (No. 12) or Malik Willis (No. 86). (Both legs lost - Drake London first WR, Kenny Pickett first QB)
“Sauce Gardner to be the second cornerback drafted [33:37] is plus 400 at DraftKings.”
Sauce Gardner was the second cornerback drafted in Round 1. Derek Stingley Jr. went first at #3 (Houston Texans), and Gardner went second at #4 (New York Jets). Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_NFL_draft (1st CB: Stingley #3; 2nd CB: Gardner #4)
“into coming on to the Action Hour podcast [5:19] and backing the Los Angeles Lakers plus 4,500 [5:24] to win the title.”
The Golden State Warriors defeated the Boston Celtics 4-2 in the 2022 NBA Finals; the Los Angeles Lakers did not win the title (NBA.com).
“I going to play both of them to win for a scoring leader [22:28] LeBron is at plus 310 at FanDuel.”
Joel Embiid won the 2021-22 NBA scoring title at 30.6 PPG; LeBron James did not qualify (56 games, below the 58-game minimum) and did not win (NBA.com).
“I like the rookies. [6:26] I agree at plus 160. [6:28] I think that they are a lock to make the finals”
Team Cavs (Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley) won the 2022 NBA All-Star Skills Challenge, defeating Team Rooks in the final; Team Rooks did not win (NBA.com). (Team Rooks lost to Team Cavs in the final)
“No, actually, I like the favorite here. [8:51] I love Jalen Green.”
Obi Toppin won the 2022 NBA Slam Dunk Contest; Jalen Green did not win (NBA.com).
“You can get Kennard at plus 600 at FanDuel, Bain plus 600 at DraftKings. [11:48] Play them both.”
Karl-Anthony Towns won the 2022 NBA Three-Point Contest; Luke Kennard did not win (NBA.com).
“You can get Kennard at plus 600 at FanDuel, Bain plus 600 at DraftKings. [11:48] Play them both.”
Karl-Anthony Towns won the 2022 NBA Three-Point Contest; Desmond Bane did not win (NBA.com).
“so i like the rams [6:16] i will take them to win and cover who do you got”
CIN 20, LAR 23 — Los Angeles Rams margin +3 vs line -4.5; busts.
“I think things start slow, and I lean under 48.5.”
CIN 20, LAR 23 — Combined 43; under 48.5 covers.
“I like Cooper Cup at 6-1 odds.”
Cooper Kupp was named Super Bowl LVI MVP after catching 8 passes for 92 yards and 2 TDs, including the game-winning score with 1:25 remaining in the Rams' 23-20 win, per NFL.com. (8 rec, 92 yds, 2 TD)
“I like the Bengals first drive to end in a punt. Minus 115 on that [16:49] one”
The Bengals' first drive resulted in a punt after a four-and-out — Joe Burrow's opening possession was stopped when Tyler Boyd dropped a pass on third-and-9, per Bleacher Report. (Bengals: punt on first drive)
“but I'm betting the first half under. [19:39] That is at 24.5.”
CIN 20, LAR 23 — Combined 43; under 24.5 busts.
“I like the Rams to get the double and win the first half and win the full game. [20:52] You can get that one for plus 120.”
Parlay cashes: Rams win first half — won; Rams win game — won.
“So I like Evan McPherson to go over 1.5 field goals. [24:43] That one is at minus 115.”
Evan McPherson made exactly 2 field goals in Super Bowl LVI (over 1.5 line), including a 38-yard attempt, in the Bengals' 23-20 loss, per ESPN box score. (McPherson: 2/2 FGs)
“Over three and a half combined in the game is plus 120. [25:18] I love that one.”
There were only 3 combined field goals in Super Bowl LVI (McPherson 2, Gay 1), falling short of the 3.5 over line, per ESPN box score and NFL.com. (3 total FGs (McPherson 2, Gay 1))
“If I get the seven, I'm going to tentatively take the Chiefs minus seven.”
KC 24, CIN 27 — Kansas City Chiefs margin -3 vs line -7; busts.
“I taking the second quarter over over 16 and a half in the second quarter”
KC 24, CIN 27 — Combined 51; over 16.5 covers.
“I'm on the Niners to cover. I'm on the Niners money line. I like Niners.”
LAR 20, SF 17 — San Francisco 49ers lost; moneyline busts.
“You can play them at most books to lead at halftime and then win at the end of the game. Again, we know that Sean McBase stat if the Rams are leading at halftime they almost always win Only that one week 18 game So I seeing plus 265 there”
The 49ers led 10-7 at halftime of the NFC Championship on January 30, 2022, but lost 20-17 to the Rams; they did not lead at halftime AND win (CBS Sports). (HT: 49ers 10-7; Final: Rams 20-17)
“So you can get Kittle over 55 and a half yards at plus money right now.”
LAR 20, SF 17 — George Kittle: 27 receiving_yards vs over 55.5; busts. (George Kittle: 27 receiving_yards)
“and you can also go over four and a half catches at minus 130 that line is crazy to me he's gotten over that the last seven games against the rams”
LAR 20, SF 17 — George Kittle: 2 receptions vs over 4.5; busts. (George Kittle: 2 receptions)
“Yeah, I'm leaning the same way. [1:15:10] That's the early pick that I turned in here.”
KC 24, CIN 27 — Cincinnati Bengals margin +3 vs line +7.5; covers.
“So I want to see who actually playing for this team but I definitely on the Niners I will be betting the Niners I be playing the Niners money line”
LAR 20, SF 17 — San Francisco 49ers lost; moneyline busts.
“here's one thing that I like a lot is I'm playing the Titans first quarter times minus one first quarter. It's at plus a hundred.”
The Bengals led the Titans 6-0 after the first quarter on January 22, 2022; Tennessee did not cover -1 in the first quarter (CBS Sports). (Q1: Bengals 6, Titans 0)
“Niners cover Niners money line That my favorite too So that's definitely my top play.”
GB 10, SF 13 — San Francisco 49ers won; moneyline covers.
“Devonta Adams, I think is going to have a big game. Not really outlandish saying that, but the Niners are second to last in DVOA against wide receiver ones. Devontae was over 100 yards, five is last six before the Detroit game. So you can get that for plus money. I like that one.”
GB 10, SF 13 — Davante Adams: 90 receiving_yards vs over 100; busts. (Davante Adams: 90 receiving_yards)
“And then I think you get the Bills plus eight and a half. I really like that.”
KC 42, BUF 36 — Buffalo Bills margin -6 vs line +8.5; covers.
“I think the teaser to go with is the Rams. Tease that up through the key numbers. We get that around, what are they, like Rams plus nine.”
TB 27, LAR 30 — Los Angeles Rams margin +3 vs line +9; covers.
“I like Niners plus 600 to get to the Superbowl, plus 1200 to win it.”
The Los Angeles Rams defeated the San Francisco 49ers 20-17 in the NFC Championship Game on January 30, 2022; the 49ers did not reach Super Bowl LVI (ESPN). (Rams 20, 49ers 17)
“I like Niners plus 600 to get to the Superbowl, plus 1200 to win it.”
The Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl LVI 23-20; the 49ers were eliminated in the NFC Championship Game and did not reach the Super Bowl (ESPN). (49ers out in NFC Championship)
“I got my bet in on the Niners already. I grabbed the money line. I got a plus 185.”
GB 10, SF 13 — San Francisco 49ers won; moneyline covers.
“So I feel decent about the Cardinals plus three and a half. And I think you're right. If you play in the three and a half, like usual, it's usually a pretty good idea to sprinkle a little bit on the money line as well.”
LAR 34, ARI 11 — Arizona Cardinals margin -23 vs line +3.5; busts.
“Yeah, I'll take the Raiders five and a half.”
CIN 26, LV 19 — Las Vegas Raiders margin -7 vs line +5.5; busts.
“I'm going to sprinkle the money line at 200 just”
CIN 26, LV 19 — Las Vegas Raiders lost; moneyline busts.
“I like Damien Harris.”
BUF 47, NE 17 — Damien Harris: 30 rushing_yards vs over 80; busts. (Damien Harris: 30 rushing_yards)
“Josh Allen, over 39 and a half rushing yards.”
BUF 47, NE 17 — Josh Allen: 66 rushing_yards vs over 39.5; covers. (Josh Allen: 66 rushing_yards)
“You can get the Patriots to win by one to six points at plus 430.”
The Buffalo Bills defeated the New England Patriots 47-17 on January 15, 2022 in the Wild Card round; the Patriots did not win the game by 1-6 points (ESPN). (Bills 47, Patriots 17)
“I like Bucs, eight and a half.”
TB 31, PHI 15 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers margin +16 vs line -8.5; covers.
“So I lean under.”
49ers beat Cowboys 23-17 (40 total points), far under the 51.5 closing total, so the under won. (Final: SF 23, DAL 17 (40 total))
“I'm going to take the Bucs plus 800 to win the Super Bowl.”
The Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl LVI 23-20 over the Cincinnati Bengals on February 13, 2022; Tampa Bay did not win the Super Bowl (ESPN). (Rams 23, Bengals 20)
“there at plus 25 when you can get the 14 to 1 on NFC. I do still like that NFC number because”
The Los Angeles Rams defeated the San Francisco 49ers 20-17 in the NFC Championship Game on January 30, 2022; the 49ers did not win the NFC (ESPN). (Rams 20, 49ers 17)
“I grabbed it at seven, seven and a half when it first came out. I think now it's at eight and a”
TB 31, PHI 15 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers margin +16 vs line +7.5; covers.
“But I like the over 49 and a half. It's the highest on the slate.”
LV 35, LAC 32 — Combined 67; over 49.5 covers.
“I like Niners plus five and a half.”
LAR 24, SF 27 — San Francisco 49ers margin +3 vs line +5.5; covers.
“I like Niners plus 180 on the money line.”
LAR 24, SF 27 — San Francisco 49ers won; moneyline covers.
“I got to take the Steelers here at plus six.”
BAL 13, PIT 16 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin +3 vs line +6; covers.
“So at BetMGM, you can bet, will a player break the sack record plus 165? T.J. Watt needs one to”
T.J. Watt finished Week 18 with 22.5 sacks, tying Michael Strahan's record but not breaking it; no player broke the single-season sack record in the 2021 NFL season (NFL.com). (22.5 sacks (tied record, did not break))
“I like the Seahawks at the Cardinals plus seven.”
ARI 30, SEA 38 — Seattle Seahawks margin +8 vs line +7; covers.
“I'm going to play the money line too.”
ARI 30, SEA 38 — Seattle Seahawks won; moneyline covers.
“I like the Falcons.”
ATL 20, NO 30 — Atlanta Falcons margin -10 vs line +4.5; busts.
“Houston's at home, plus 10 and a half.”
HOU 25, TEN 28 — Houston Texans margin -3 vs line +10.5; covers.
“i playing the san francisco 49ers to win the nfc and to win the super bowl plus 2500 to win the”
The Los Angeles Rams defeated the San Francisco 49ers 20-17 in the NFC Championship Game on January 30, 2022; the 49ers did not win the NFC (ESPN). (Rams 20, 49ers 17)
“nfc plus 5000 to win the super bowl i want both because i don't think they're going to win the”
The Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl LVI 23-20 over the Cincinnati Bengals on February 13, 2022; the 49ers did not reach the Super Bowl (ESPN). (Rams 23, Bengals 20)
“the plus three and a half. I've got some Steelers money line already. It's basically a pick-em,”
PIT 26, CLE 14 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin +12 vs line +3.5; covers.
“the plus three and a half. I've got some Steelers money line already. It's basically a pick-em,”
PIT 26, CLE 14 — Pittsburgh Steelers won; moneyline covers.
“It's too many points and it's just, it's the line has moved too much from what it was even a couple of weeks ago when these teams played Washington. We got to throw out a little bit of the recent numbers with the way that they've been missing their COVID guys. They're all back now. So I think it's the right number to play in a division game. Washington is still in the playoffs too, or in the hunt. So I like that one. I'm going to take a risky pick here. I'm going to go with Miami plus three and a half in Tennessee.”
TEN 34, MIA 3 — Miami Dolphins margin -31 vs line +3.5; busts.
“My other best bet, I'm going with the Steelers,”
PIT 26, CLE 14 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin +12 vs line +3.5; covers.
“the Vikings are going to have a shot. So I'm going to take the seven plus 250 on the money line. I'm”
GB 37, MIN 10 — Minnesota Vikings margin -27 vs line +7; busts.
“I'm taking the Carolina Panthers plus 16 and a half in Tampa Bay,”
TB 41, CAR 17 — Carolina Panthers margin -24 vs line +16.5; busts.
“But I like the under here. What do you think about the under?”
NO 3, MIA 20 — Combined 23; under 37.5 covers.
“I still like Miami here.”
NO 3, MIA 20 — Miami Dolphins won; moneyline covers.
“I'm going back to the well with like my 700th time this season I'm taking the Pittsburgh Steelers in”
PIT 26, CLE 14 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin +12 vs line +3; covers.
“But since we don't know that one yet, I'll ugly it up with you.”
SEA 51, DET 29 — Detroit Lions margin -22 vs line +9; busts.
“I got to take the two and a half here if you can get it, the two if you can.”
NE 21, BUF 33 — Buffalo Bills margin +12 vs line +2; covers.
“this was one of my favorite spots, Seattle plus seven in that range. I still like it a lot here.”
LAR 20, SEA 10 — Seattle Seahawks margin -10 vs line +7; busts.
“I like Seattle here. I'm going to play the money line as well.”
LAR 20, SEA 10 — Seattle Seahawks lost; moneyline busts.
“I'm going to take the Atlanta Falcons minus four and a half at home”
ATL 20, DET 16 — Atlanta Falcons margin +4 vs line -4.5; busts.
“I'm going to play New England.”
IND 27, NE 17 — New England Patriots margin -10 vs line +2.5; busts.
“The play I think that is in play is that I think the Patriots over team total 23 and a half.”
The New England Patriots scored 17 points in their 27-17 loss to the Indianapolis Colts on December 18, 2021 (Week 15). 17 does not exceed the team total over of 23.5. Source: https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401326540 (Patriots 17, Colts 27)
“So grab the Steelers plus two if you can get it out there still.”
PIT 19, TEN 13 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin +6 vs line +2; covers.
“I'm going to take the New Orleans Saints plus 11 on the road at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.”
TB 0, NO 9 — New Orleans Saints margin +9 vs line +11; covers.
“But I'm going to sprinkle the money line as well. Plus 400. I think the Saints have better than a”
TB 0, NO 9 — New Orleans Saints won; moneyline covers.
“I'm going to, with my look ahead, I'm going back to the Colts,”
ARI 16, IND 22 — Indianapolis Colts margin +6 vs line +4; covers.
“I'm betting the Cardinals.”
ARI 23, LAR 30 — Arizona Cardinals margin -7 vs line -2.5; busts.
“I'm taking Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers as an underdog because they keep giving them to us an underdog, and I'm going to keep on taking them.”
PIT 19, TEN 13 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin +6 vs line +2.5; covers.
“four and a half come on don't be crazy here i gotta take the points and chicago at home against”
CHI 9, MIN 17 — Chicago Bears margin -8 vs line +4.5; busts.
“I grabbed San Fran plus two and a half, took them again at plus two on Sunday night in”
CIN 23, SF 26 — San Francisco 49ers margin +3 vs line -1; covers.
“Yeah, I'm with you. And it's the exact same thing. I like Dallas a lot in”
WSH 20, DAL 27 — Dallas Cowboys margin +7 vs line -3.5; covers.
“all of that compels me to have to take the Ravens here.”
Browns beat Ravens 24-22 on Dec 12, 2021; Ravens pick lost. (Browns 24, Ravens 22)
“in denver and i like the broncos here so i'm going to grab it at plus three because i don't know if”
DEN 10, CIN 15 — Denver Broncos margin -5 vs line +3; busts.
“Well, I'm with you on the Patriots.”
BUF 10, NE 14 — New England Patriots margin +4 vs line +2.5; covers.
“I'm going to stick with the 49ers on the road in Cincinnati.”
CIN 23, SF 26 — San Francisco 49ers margin +3 vs line +1.5; covers.
“I'm going to go for my other hot read pick. I'm going to go with the game that I know that you”
TB 33, BUF 27 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers margin +6 vs line -3; covers.
“I'm going to play the money line.”
CIN 22, LAC 41 — Los Angeles Chargers won; moneyline covers.
“I'm on those Tomlin trends as well. As a home dog, Tomlin and the Steelers have covered six times in a row, so definitely that's been going well.”
PIT 20, BAL 19 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin +1 vs line +4.5; covers.
“Baltimore is playing. And I'm on the money line too. Tomlin as a money line underdog, 34 and 31.”
PIT 20, BAL 19 — Pittsburgh Steelers won; moneyline covers.
“So I'm on Seattle three and a half.”
SEA 30, SF 23 — Seattle Seahawks margin +7 vs line +3.5; covers.
“Keep going with the trend here, plus 150.”
SEA 30, SF 23 — Seattle Seahawks won; moneyline covers.
“So Kyler Murray, 13-1.”
Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers won the 2021 AP NFL MVP award for the second consecutive year, not Kyler Murray. Rodgers received 39 of 50 votes. Source: https://www.nfl.com/news/packers-qb-aaron-rodgers-named-2021-ap-nfl-mvp
“I'm going to go with the 49ers on the road, plus two in Cincinnati.”
CIN 23, SF 26 — San Francisco 49ers margin +3 vs line +2; covers.
“I'm making it my own hot read, too.”
BUF 10, NE 14 — New England Patriots margin +4 vs line +3; covers.
“So Patriots, give me that underdogs on the road.”
BUF 10, NE 14 — New England Patriots won; moneyline covers.
“Terry McLaurin, I think you'd have a really big game in this game.”
Terry McLaurin had 4 receptions for 51 yards and no touchdowns in Washington's 17-15 win over Seattle on Nov 29, 2021. He did not reach 100 receiving yards. Source: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202111290was.htm (McLaurin: 4 rec, 51 yds, 0 TD)
“Bucs certainly could come out and win by like 30 in this game. I'm going to take the Giants plus 10”
TB 30, NYG 10 — New York Giants margin -20 vs line +10.5; busts.
“them letting you have them here but I am backing them all the way and I don't always back the”
SF 34, MIN 26 — Minnesota Vikings margin -8 vs line +2.5; busts.
“was the Eagles and same thing. I'm, I'm coming back Eagles. I'm still seeing some two and a half,”
NYG 13, PHI 7 — Philadelphia Eagles margin -6 vs line -2.5; busts.
“I'm going to stay in Pennsylvania. I'm taking the Steelers on the road in another underdog”
CIN 41, PIT 10 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -31 vs line +4.5; busts.
“Buffalo here. Yeah, I like Buffalo here a lot, especially because the short week, you know,”
NO 6, BUF 31 — Buffalo Bills margin +25 vs line -4; covers.
“So I'm Cowboys plus two and a half. What is your best play on this one?”
KC 19, DAL 9 — Dallas Cowboys margin -10 vs line +2.5; busts.
“We're head-to-head. I'm on the Eagles. You're on the Saints.”
PHI 40, NO 29 — Philadelphia Eagles margin +11 vs line -1.5; covers.
“My best bet, first one here, my favorite play of the week is the Annapolis Colts. Another one we talked about on the hot read. Colts plus seven and a half in Buffalo.”
BUF 15, IND 41 — Indianapolis Colts margin +26 vs line +7.5; covers.
“I love the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday night on the road in Los Angeles playing the Chargers. Right now it's at plus five and a half because we don't really know.”
LAC 41, PIT 37 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -4 vs line +5.5; covers.
“I'm going with the Minnesota Vikings, plus two and a half, San Francisco 49ers”
SF 34, MIN 26 — Minnesota Vikings margin -8 vs line +2.5; busts.
“my first hot read here, I'm going to go with the Carolina Panthers at home to Washington football team. I'm going to take the Panthers as two and a half point favorites, grabbing that one before it gets to the three or past.”
CAR 21, WSH 27 — Carolina Panthers margin -6 vs line -2.5; busts.
“I'm going to go with the Indianapolis Colts plus seven in Buffalo.”
BUF 15, IND 41 — Indianapolis Colts margin +26 vs line +7; covers.
“I love Seattle anyway. Like even if Rodgers was not in COVID and this was just Seattle on the road as more than a field goal underdog, I still really like Seattle here.”
GB 17, SEA 0 — Seattle Seahawks margin -17 vs line +3.5; busts.
“I definitely am on the Saints here and I definitely taking it at the three. I don't want to lose the hook there.”
TEN 23, NO 21 — New Orleans Saints margin -2 vs line +3; covers.
“I going to go with Colts minus 10 against the Jaguars I talked about this one already I think on the hot read I just think this is a great spot for the Colts”
IND 23, JAX 17 — Indianapolis Colts margin +6 vs line -10; busts.
“I think this line easily could go to three or under three Mike Tomlin as an underdog great in that spot Najee Harris running the ball against this rough defense. Him in Los Angeles, it's going to be a home game for Pittsburgh.”
LAC 41, PIT 37 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -4 vs line +3.5; busts.
“Dallas Cowboys. So I'm seeing Dallas at as high as plus 1200 sound books. Again, I think Dallas”
The Dallas Cowboys did not win Super Bowl LVI. They lost in the Wild Card round to the San Francisco 49ers. The Rams beat the Bengals in Super Bowl LVI. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%9322_NFL_playoffs
“Yeah, I think Rams plus 195.”
The LA Rams won the 2021 NFC West division title with a 12-5 record. Source: https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/2021-nfc-west-standings (Rams 12-5)
“I got it at 40 to one last week. I think that's insane. We have a dude on pace for 5,653 touchdowns”
Cooper Kupp of the LA Rams won the 2021 AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year award, not Tom Brady. Kupp had 145 catches for 1,947 yards and 16 TDs. Source: https://www.nfl.com/news/rams-wr-cooper-kupp-named-2021-ap-nfl-offensive-player-of-the-year
“but I think we both like Chicago to cover.”
PIT 29, CHI 27 — Chicago Bears margin -2 vs line +7; covers.
“I'm going to go with the Colts at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars.”
IND 23, JAX 17 — Indianapolis Colts margin +6 vs line -10.5; busts.
“I'm going to back you here. The Detroit Lions on the road in Pittsburgh, nine and a half point”
PIT 16, DET 16 — Detroit Lions margin +0 vs line +9.5; covers.
“I'm going to believe in the Raiders.”
NYG 23, LV 16 — Las Vegas Raiders margin -7 vs line -2.5; busts.
“you gave this one on Friday. I'm just doubling down. We're both on Houston for the week. Let's go Texans.”
MIA 17, HOU 9 — Houston Texans margin -8 vs line +7; busts.
“This week, I am going with Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots. They are on the road in Los Angeles to play the Chargers. Patriots are five or five and a half point underdogs, depending on where you're looking. The money line's coming off around plus 190.”
LAC 24, NE 27 — New England Patriots won; moneyline covers.
“plus 210, I like that number here.”
NO 36, TB 27 — New Orleans Saints won; moneyline covers.
“I am going with New England on the road in Carolina. The Patriots are minus one and a half right now.”
CAR 6, NE 24 — New England Patriots margin +18 vs line -1.5; covers.
“i'm gonna grab a future this week i'm taking some jamar chase rookie of the year stock”
Ja'Marr Chase won the 2021 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award. He finished with 81 catches for 1,455 yards and 13 TDs. Source: https://www.nfl.com/news/bengals-wr-ja-marr-chase-named-2021-ap-offensive-rookie-of-the-year (81 rec, 1,455 yds, 13 TD)
“i'm gonna nibble a little bit on the plus 195”
SEA 10, NO 13 — Seattle Seahawks lost; moneyline busts.
“I'm going to go with the Green Bay Packers plus three and a half in Arizona.”
ARI 21, GB 24 — Green Bay Packers margin +3 vs line +3.5; covers.
“i'm gonna make the exact same pick can city chiefs at the Titans. This line right now is at four and a half.”
TEN 27, KC 3 — Kansas City Chiefs margin -24 vs line -4.5; busts.
“I'm going to go with the Indianapolis Colts. I've seen them as high as plus 184 on the money line, visiting the San Francisco 49ers.”
SF 18, IND 30 — Indianapolis Colts won; moneyline covers.
“I will take the bills are you betting the titans are you just going to stay away from this one”
TEN 34, BUF 31 — Buffalo Bills margin -3 vs line -5.5; busts.
“I'm going to go ahead and grab them before this line balloons. I'm not mad at that.”
TEN 27, KC 3 — Kansas City Chiefs margin -24 vs line -3.5; busts.
“I'm going to fade the Ravens. Baltimore is at home. They're big favorites against the Cincinnati Bengals. They're six-and-a-half-point favorites right now. I'm going to take Cincinnati because I think that line is too high.”
BAL 17, CIN 41 — Cincinnati Bengals margin +24 vs line +6.5; covers.
“i am backing the chiefs on the road in washington minus six and a half especially if you can keep this one under a touchdown”
WSH 13, KC 31 — Kansas City Chiefs margin +18 vs line -6.5; covers.
“I'm taking the Chiefs minus three on the road in Tennessee.”
TEN 27, KC 3 — Kansas City Chiefs margin -24 vs line -3; busts.
“I think there's still value at plus 800. He's the sort of guy that if it weren't for these hot young quarterbacks, he would already be a favorite or the favorite in most seasons.”
2021 NFL MVP was won by Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers, 4th MVP), not Tom Brady. Rodgers won with 39 of 50 votes. Source: NFL.com – https://www.nfl.com/news/packers-qb-aaron-rodgers-named-2021-ap-nfl-mvp (Rodgers: 37 TD, 4 INT, 111.9 passer rating)
“I am actually going to play my first hot read total i don't play a lot of totals but thursday night tampa bay in philadelphia They've got the total set at 53 and a half on this one. And I understand the Bucs score all sorts of points. So it always feels like Tampa could hit that on their own. I'm taking the under.”
PHI 22, TB 28 — Combined 50; under 53.5 covers.
“gonna keep this easy can city chiefs on the road at washington are minus six and a half right now I'm grabbing it. I'm grabbing it before it's seven. Washington's pass defense can't stop anybody. I'm not afraid of the Chiefs. I'm not afraid of the backdoor with Tyler Heineke. Kansas City is”
WSH 13, KC 31 — Kansas City Chiefs margin +18 vs line -6.5; covers.
“like it's just my favorite favorite bet of the week and this week i'm gonna talk about one that we already hit on the hot read last week i still love the tennessee titans minus four at jackson little Jaguars. They were minus three on the hot read, grabbed them then, still more than happy to”
JAX 19, TEN 37 — Tennessee Titans margin +18 vs line -4; covers.
“I'm fading the Kansas city chiefs at home on Sunday night. I'm backing the Buffalo bills.”
KC 20, BUF 38 — Buffalo Bills won; moneyline covers.
“I am going to go with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers on the road in Chicago. Right now, Packers are minus four and a half.”
CHI 14, GB 24 — Green Bay Packers margin +10 vs line -4.5; covers.
“I'm ready to bet the Rams here. I feel pretty good about this plus 170, getting even odds with the Cardinals.”
The LA Rams won the 2021 NFC West with a 12-5 record, finishing first in the division ahead of the Cardinals (11-6). Source: NFL.com standings, Pro-Football-Reference.
“Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home against the Miami Dolphins. I'll take the favorites here. They're at nine and a half point favorites at some books.”
TB 45, MIA 17 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers margin +28 vs line -9.5; covers.
“So we're going to Jacksonville where the Jaguars will host the Tennessee Titans. And I like the favorite here. The Titans are three and a half point favorites.”
JAX 19, TEN 37 — Tennessee Titans margin +18 vs line -3.5; covers.
“my play for that one is the first half under 24”
NE 17, TB 19 — Combined 36; under 24 busts.
“This week what I want to build around most of all is the one pick I feel best of this week That a late afternoon Seattle Seahawks money line pick at plus 125 not just to cover but to win outright against San Francisco.”
SF 21, SEA 28 — Seattle Seahawks won; moneyline covers.
“I'm going to pick the Cowboys, but I'm just going to take the money line. That's at minus 200 right now.”
DAL 36, CAR 28 — Dallas Cowboys won; moneyline covers.
“So I like New England plus seven in this game.”
NE 17, TB 19 — New England Patriots margin -2 vs line +7; covers.
“my future this week is I'm going to take the Arizona Cardinals to miss the playoffs at plus 125 at BetMGM.”
The Arizona Cardinals DID make the 2021 NFL playoffs — they finished as the NFC's #1 seed with a 11-6 record. The bet was that the Cardinals would MISS the playoffs, so the bet lost. Source: NFL official standings and widely reported. (Cardinals: NFC #1 seed, 11-6, made playoffs)
“Dak Prescott to win comeback player of the year is plus 135 right now.”
Dak Prescott did NOT win the 2021 AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year. Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) won the award, beating out Prescott who was the runner-up. Source: CBS Sports NFL Honors report; confirmed by Sports Illustrated and SI.com.
“Tom Brady plus a thousand at some books for MVP. I'm still loving that one.”
Aaron Rodgers won the 2021 AP NFL MVP award (39 of 50 votes) for the second consecutive year; Tom Brady finished second with 10 votes. Source: NFL.com, CBS Sports.
“yeah I'm going the other way on this one so we're going to go head to head I'm on your Cowboys this week and I think that somehow we are still as a public underrating the Dallas Cowboys”
DAL 41, PHI 21 — Dallas Cowboys margin +20 vs line -3.5; covers.
“And I know, I know the Chiefs are on 10 games in a row at this point, meaningful games where they have played one score games. This is what happens now. I know, but all the things we just said about the Eagles, they can't score enough to keep up with the Cowboys. Then they certainly aren't going to be able to score to keep up with the Chiefs. The Chiefs are going to move the ball. They're going to score. The Eagles secondary is beatable. Darius Slay is really good, but can't cover everyone. And at five and a half, especially, this is a perfect, perfect teaser spot. That line is going to rise. They're going to lose out on the teaser a little bit there.”
PHI 30, KC 42 — Kansas City Chiefs margin +12 vs line -5.5; covers.
“I am just grabbing the Chargers at minus three before the line was off of that. This is absolutely the team that we're about to spend the entire week slobbering over in the media.”
LAC 28, LV 14 — Los Angeles Chargers margin +14 vs line -3; covers.
“I don't want to bet against them. So this was my hot read this week because I couldn't believe that we were putting a team this hot, this good, this loaded on both sides of the ball as underdogs.”
LAR 34, TB 24 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers margin -10 vs line -1.5; busts.
“So Brown's minus seven bucks, minus one Packers, and 49ers each to score 20 parlay that together at bet MGM. And we're at plus five 34.”
Parlay busts: Cleveland Browns ML — won; Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML — lost; Packers and 49ers both to score 20+ — manual.
“especially at plus seven I love the Chargers in this spot this is one of my favorite few bets of the week I'm not only playing the plus seven I'm playing the money line”
KC 24, LAC 30 — Los Angeles Chargers margin +6 vs line +7; covers.
“it's my upset special week three it's at plus 250 on the money line right now I'll play the spread too because I feel pretty good about that but I'm going to sprinkle on the upset.”
KC 24, LAC 30 — Los Angeles Chargers won; moneyline covers.
“I literally had to check this line three times to make sure that the little plus I was seeing was accurate. Folks, Tom Brady and the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers are underdogs right now in week three of the National Football League. Underdogs.”
LAR 34, TB 24 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers margin -10 vs line +1.5; busts.
“I'm going back to the well on the Cleveland Browns. They're minus 7.5 right now against the Bears.”
CLE 26, CHI 6 — Cleveland Browns margin +20 vs line -7.5; covers.
“In the early game, I'm playing the Cleveland Browns minus 12 and a half against the, the Houston Texans or whatever is left of a team”
CLE 31, HOU 21 — Cleveland Browns margin +10 vs line -12.5; busts.
“my first pick I'm putting into the parlay is the Arizona Cardinals at three and a half.”
ARI 34, MIN 33 — Arizona Cardinals margin +1 vs line -3.5; busts.
“I like the Chiefs. It's a, it's a spot where Baltimore absolutely needs to figure it out, but I trust Kansas City to come through. Cleveland, 12 and a half. Arizona and the Kansas City Chiefs, three and a half each, playing three favorites for our first all-day parlay.”
BAL 36, KC 35 — Kansas City Chiefs margin -1 vs line -3.5; busts.
“We're going with the Green Bay Packers minus 10 and a half. I think it's up to 11 now, but 11 and 10 and a half are pretty much the same because 10 is key.”
GB 35, DET 17 — Green Bay Packers margin +18 vs line -10.5; covers.
“The Browns are still plus 1,600, but I'm playing it anyways because here's what's next for Cleveland. Their next three games are against the Texans, the Bears, and the Vikings”
The Cleveland Browns did NOT win Super Bowl LVI. The Los Angeles Rams defeated the Cincinnati Bengals 23-20 on February 13, 2022, at SoFi Stadium. The Browns did not reach the Super Bowl. Source: NFL.com and widely reported. (Rams 23, Bengals 20 (Super Bowl LVI, Feb 13 2022))
“Elijah Mitchell is a great fit for the Kyle Shanahan offense. He's a one cut guy. I've been onto him ever since the draft. He's a perfect fit for what they do there.”
Elijah Mitchell did NOT win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year for the 2021 season. Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase won the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year award, setting a rookie receiving yards record (1,455 yards, 81 receptions, 13 TDs). Source: NFL.com official announcement; confirmed by Bleacher Report and CBS Sports. (Ja'Marr Chase won OROY: 81 rec, 1,455 yds, 13 TD)
“the other one that's still 50 to 1 antonio brown that dude looked very very good on opening night and he's still 50 to 1 to lead the league in yards and to lead the league in touchdowns”
Antonio Brown did NOT lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns in the 2021 regular season. Cooper Kupp led the league with 16 receiving touchdowns. Antonio Brown had only 4 receiving TDs in 2021 before being released mid-season. Source: Fox Sports NFL receiving stats 2021; confirmed by StatMuse and ESPN. (Cooper Kupp led with 16 rec TD; Antonio Brown had 4 rec TD in 2021)
“about playing the Raiders, the 165, I think it's worth a play, giving them a shot here.”
LV 33, BAL 27 — Las Vegas Raiders won; moneyline covers.
“Give me Patrick Mahomes at two and a half against pretty much anyone,”
BAL 36, KC 35 — Kansas City Chiefs margin -1 vs line -2.5; busts.
“night game next week. I'm going to Monday Night Football. I'm grabbing the Green Bay Packers.”
GB 35, DET 17 — Green Bay Packers margin +18 vs line -10.5; covers.
“So Patriots, Broncos, Rams, all to cover and get the win.”
NE 16, MIA 17 — New England Patriots margin -1 vs line -3; busts.
“I like the Rams.”
LAR 34, CHI 14 — Los Angeles Rams margin +20 vs line -7.5; covers.
“The other one that I like is Denver at New York Giants.”
NYG 13, DEN 27 — Denver Broncos margin +14 vs line -3; covers.
“I like it. I'll go one step even further. The New York football Jets would be my upset special pick of the week. I think the Jets are going to go to Carolina and get that win. So I'm seeing that at plus 165 on the money line. I love the Jets. You know, I love my long shots. So let's play some football.”
CAR 19, NYJ 14 — New York Jets lost; moneyline busts.
“Let's start with one that both of us love. That is Denver at Jacksonville. Right now, Denver is a two and a half point favorite and both of us are all over that one.”
JAX 13, DEN 23 — Denver Broncos margin +10 vs line -2.5; covers.
“we had Buffalo at Miami, very same sort of thing. Buffalo is a two and a half point favorite. And again, I like the bills here and I want to grab them before that line moves.”
MIA 0, BUF 35 — Buffalo Bills margin +35 vs line -2.5; covers.
“this game, I think we're going to get a Thursday night stinker right out of the gates. We love our Thursday night stinkers. We got the New York Giants traveling to Washington. And I just don't think we're going to see much scoring in that one. You can get that one, the under at 46 and a half”
WSH 30, NYG 29 — Combined 59; under 46.5 busts.
“I will be looking to grab New England if I can. If I find it at two and a half somewhere, if it drops back down, I definitely want to get that before the hook because I think it's a nice spot for the Patriots.”
NE 16, MIA 17 — New England Patriots margin -1 vs line -2.5; busts.
“This is my favorite play among any of the quarterback bets.”
Tom Brady led the NFL in passing touchdowns in 2021 with 43 TD passes, becoming the oldest player to win the TD crown. (Buccaneers.com: QB Tom Brady Led NFL in Passing Yards and Touchdowns in 2021) (43 TD passes, NFL leader)
“So to me, Stafford is the one that I like a lot.”
Tom Brady led the NFL in passing yards in 2021 with 5,316 yards. Matthew Stafford finished the regular season with 4,886 yards, not the league leader. (Buccaneers.com: QB Tom Brady Led NFL in Passing Yards and Touchdowns in 2021) (Stafford 4,886 yds; Brady led at 5,316)
“The other one I like here is Tom Brady.”
Tom Brady led the NFL in passing yards in 2021 with 5,316 yards, also leading in touchdowns. (Buccaneers.com: QB Tom Brady Led NFL in Passing Yards and Touchdowns in 2021) (5,316 passing yards, NFL leader)
“ask Aaron Jones. I can see him at 18 to one. And it's, this is a double Aaron play.”
Jonathan Taylor led the NFL in rushing touchdowns in 2021 with 18 TDs. Aaron Jones did not lead the league. (StatMuse: NFL Rushing TD Leaders 2021) (Taylor 18 rush TDs; Jones did not lead)
“You can get him as high as 14 to one odds.”
Cooper Kupp led the NFL in receiving yards in 2021 with 1,947 yards, winning the receiving triple crown. Justin Jefferson finished second with 1,616 yards. (ESPN/CBS Sports: Cooper Kupp 2021 receiving triple crown) (Kupp 1,947 rec yds (led); Jefferson 1,616 (2nd))
“I'm going to take Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and McLaurin,”
Cooper Kupp led the 2021 NFL season with 1,947 receiving yards. CeeDee Lamb finished with 1,102 yards, well outside the top. Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com 2021 NFL Receiving stats. (Kupp 1,947 rec yds (leader); Lamb 1,102 rec yds)
“So McLaurin's at 20 to one.”
Cooper Kupp led the 2021 NFL season with 1,947 receiving yards. Terry McLaurin finished with 1,053 yards, not the leader. Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com 2021 NFL Receiving stats. (Kupp 1,947 rec yds (leader); McLaurin 1,053 rec yds)
“touchdowns I want all the bucks I just I just want give me the bucks Mike Evans is getting”
Cooper Kupp led the 2021 NFL season with 16 receiving touchdowns, earning the receiving triple crown. Mike Evans did not lead the league. Source: StatMuse / Pro-Football-Reference.com. (Kupp 16 rec TDs (leader); Evans did not lead)
“You can get him at 28 to one.”
Cooper Kupp led the 2021 NFL season with 16 receiving touchdowns. Chris Godwin did not lead the league. Source: StatMuse / Pro-Football-Reference.com. (Kupp 16 rec TDs (leader); Godwin did not lead)
“You know who else I like Antonio Brown, 66 to one at bed MGM.”
Cooper Kupp led the 2021 NFL season with 16 receiving touchdowns. Antonio Brown did not lead the league. Source: StatMuse / Pro-Football-Reference.com. (Kupp 16 rec TDs (leader); Brown did not lead)
“I can see Jefferson at 23 to one odds and Lamb as high as 44 to one odds.”
Cooper Kupp led the 2021 NFL season with 145 receptions. Justin Jefferson had 108 catches (4th in the league), not the leader. Source: Complex Sports / Pro-Football-Reference.com. (Kupp 145 rec (leader); Jefferson 108 rec)
“I've found him as high as 17 to one.”
Cooper Kupp led the 2021 NFL season with 145 receptions. Keenan Allen had 106 catches, not the leader. Source: Pro-Football-Reference.com 2021 NFL Receiving stats. (Kupp 145 rec (leader); Allen 106 rec)
“Brady, I think is the big MVP favorite.”
Aaron Rodgers won the 2021 NFL AP MVP award for a second consecutive year. Tom Brady did not win MVP despite leading the league in passing yards and TDs. Source: ESPN NFL Honors 2022. (MVP: Aaron Rodgers (2nd straight); Brady won Offensive Player of Year nod via Kupp's triple crown)
“My play is I'm just picking Baltimore and Cleveland to finish top two in the division. Either order, minus 125.”
2021 AFC North final standings: Bengals 1st (10-7), Steelers 2nd (9-7-1), Ravens 3rd (8-9), Browns 4th (8-9). Neither Baltimore nor Cleveland finished in the top two. Source: https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/2021-afc-north-standings (Bengals 1st, Steelers 2nd, Ravens 3rd, Browns 4th)
“I playing them at plus 550 to be the one seed in the AFC”
Tennessee Titans earned the AFC's No. 1 seed in 2021 with a 12-5 record, defeating the Houston Texans in Week 18. Baltimore Ravens finished 8-9 and 3rd in the AFC North. Source: https://www.tennesseetitans.com/news/titans-capture-afc-s-no-1-seed-with-28-25-win-over-texans (Titans were AFC 1 seed (12-5); Ravens 8-9)
“Just win the division. Minus 160. I don't see any way Buffalo doesn't win this division unless Allen completely implodes.”
Buffalo Bills won the 2021 AFC East division title with an 11-6 record. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Buffalo_Bills_season (Bills 11-6, AFC East champions)
“my best bet on the Patriots is them to miss the playoffs at minus 135. I just don't see it.”
New England Patriots finished 10-7 in the 2021 regular season and qualified for the playoffs as a wild card. They lost to the Buffalo Bills 47-17 in the Wild Card round. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_New_England_Patriots_season (Patriots 10-7, made playoffs)
“So I'm going to play the Chargers at plus 230 to make the wild card.”
The Los Angeles Chargers finished 9-8 but missed the playoffs after an overtime loss to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 18. A tie would have sent both teams to the playoffs. (Wikipedia: 2021 Los Angeles Chargers season) (9-8, missed playoffs)
“Plus 900 for the Denver Broncos to win the division.”
The Kansas City Chiefs won the 2021 AFC West for the fifth consecutive year. The Denver Broncos finished 4th in the division at 7-10. (Pro-Football-Reference: 2021 NFL Standings) (Broncos 7-10, 4th in AFC West)
“I'm taking Pittsburgh under two and a half division wins at plus one 50.”
The Pittsburgh Steelers went 4-2 against their AFC North opponents in 2021, giving them 4 division wins — over the 2.5 line. (Pro-Football-Reference: 2021 Pittsburgh Steelers) (4-2 in division)
“I like the AFC North to win the AFC conference at plus 280.”
The Cincinnati Bengals (AFC North) won the 2021 AFC Championship Game over the Kansas City Chiefs 27-24 in overtime on January 30, 2022. (NFL.com: 2021 NFL playoffs Bengals win over Chiefs in AFC Championship) (Bengals 27-24 OT vs Chiefs)
“The under 9.5 is my favorite one on the entire board here.”
The Miami Dolphins finished the 2021 regular season 9-8, which is under the 9.5-win total. They started 1-7 then won 7 straight but missed the playoffs. (Wikipedia: 2021 Miami Dolphins season) (9-8 final record)
“Actually, I would go with the Cowboys at plus 1600.”
Dallas Cowboys scored 530 points in 2021, the most of any NFL team that season and a franchise record. Source: https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-points-scored-nfl-2021 (530 points (NFL-best))
“I'm going to pick the chargers here. They're at plus two 10. I just like a lot about the Chargers. I like the coaching changes. Brandon Staley is going to do a lot there.”
Los Angeles Chargers made the 2021-22 NFL playoffs as the AFC's #7 seed (wild card), defeating the expectation after being in playoff contention all season. They lost to the Chiefs in Wild Card Round. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%9322_NFL_playoffs (Chargers 9-8, #7 seed AFC)
“So I like Seattle to definitely make the playoffs but not when the division So at plus two 20 they my pick So you I got to push back on this So you think you just probably going to be three teams out of that division can make the playoffs but not win the division So at plus 220 they my pick there”
Seattle Seahawks did not make the 2021-22 NFL playoffs. NFC wild card teams were Eagles, 49ers, and Cardinals. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%9322_NFL_playoffs (Seahawks missed playoffs)
“Tom Brady is plus 1400 right now. 14 to one odds. Let me tell you why”
Aaron Rodgers won the 2021 AP NFL MVP award with 39 of 50 votes. Tom Brady finished 2nd with 10 votes. Source: https://www.nfl.com/news/packers-qb-aaron-rodgers-named-2021-ap-nfl-mvp
“So he's on the Giants. I'm going with Aziz Ojolari.”
Micah Parsons (Dallas Cowboys LB) won the 2021 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award unanimously. Azeez Ojulari did not win. Source: https://www.nfl.com/news/cowboys-lb-micah-parsons-named-2021-ap-nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year
“attention. And I like Jamin Davis. He was their top pick this year. He's a linebacker for them.”
Micah Parsons (Dallas Cowboys LB) won the 2021 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award unanimously. Jamin Davis did not win. Source: https://www.nfl.com/news/cowboys-lb-micah-parsons-named-2021-ap-nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year
“my main pick here is patrick mahomes maybe you've heard of him before he's really good he's gonna put”
Cooper Kupp (Los Angeles Rams WR) won the 2021 AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year award. Patrick Mahomes did not win. Source: https://www.nfl.com/news/rams-wr-cooper-kupp-named-2021-ap-nfl-offensive-player-of-the-year
“220 is insane on this.”
Joe Burrow (Bengals) won the 2021 AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year award, beating out Dak Prescott 28-21 in voting at NFL Honors on Feb 11 2022. Source: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-honors-bengals-joe-burrow-beats-out-cowboys-dak-prescott-to-win-2021-ap-comeback-player-of-the-year/ (Burrow 4,611 yards, 34 TD; Prescott runner-up)
“you can play Germany to go out at group stage at minus 125 I kind of like that.”
Germany finished 1-2 in Group B (losses to Italy and Australia, win over Nigeria) and was eliminated from the Olympics without advancing to the knockout stage. (nba.com/news/germany-holds-on-for-group-b-win-over-nigeria) (Germany 1-2, 3rd in Group B, eliminated)
“My my best bet from this group I think also involves fading Slovenia in there They open against Argentina and Slovenia has never played in the Olympics before We know Luka will be by far the best player on the court but I like Argentina to win that game just with the veteran experience and just being ready for the moment and for the Olympics they're plus 190 on the money line right now”
Slovenia beat Argentina 118-100 in Tokyo Olympics group play; Argentina moneyline lost. (Slovenia 118, Argentina 100)
“my I think my favorite play or at least one of my two favorite plays similar to Joe but a different team I going with Australia to medal which is at plus 110”
Australia won the bronze medal at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, defeating Slovenia in the bronze medal game 107-93. Australia medaled, satisfying the 'medal' prop. (poundingtherock.com/2021/8/7/22614369/team-usa-wins-gold-for-mens-basketball-australia-bronze) (Australia bronze, 107-93 over Slovenia)
“I am taking Spain plus 1000 to win the gold medal.”
Spain did not win the gold medal at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics men's basketball tournament. The USA beat France 87-82 for gold. Spain was eliminated in the semifinals by France. (bleacherreport.com/articles/10009852-olympic-basketball-2021-team-usa-beats-france-to-win-mens-gold-medal)
“I think I rolling with you in under All right we on the under Brandon are you going to bet Chris Paul to win finals MVP Yes Now at eight to one for CP I think that that the play I think that the right move so I gonna lock that one out”
Same Game 6 under: total 213.5 vs actual 203 combined points (Bucks 105, Suns 98). (Bucks 105, Suns 98 (203 total vs 213.5 line))
“I think I rolling with you in under All right we on the under Brandon are you going to bet Chris Paul to win finals MVP Yes Now at eight to one for CP I think that that the play I think that the right move so I gonna lock that one out”
Giannis Antetokounmpo won the 2021 NBA Finals MVP after the Milwaukee Bucks defeated the Phoenix Suns in six games. Chris Paul did not win. (nba.com/news/giannis-wins-2021-finals-mvp) (Giannis won MVP; CP3 scored 32 pts in Game 5 but Suns lost the series)
“pick right now sounds minus three and a half they're gonna win this game raheem what do you”
PHX 119, MIL 123 — Phoenix Suns margin -4 vs line -3.5; busts.
“make decisions i still like that chris paul plus 190 mvp for the reason i said because”
Giannis Antetokounmpo won the 2021 NBA Finals MVP after the Milwaukee Bucks defeated the Phoenix Suns in six games. Chris Paul did not win. (nba.com/news/giannis-wins-2021-finals-mvp) (Giannis: 50 pts, 14 reb, 5 blk in Game 6 clincher)
“all of this this said i'll tell you where i'm where i'm gonna bet i'm taking sons”
MIL 109, PHX 103 — Phoenix Suns margin -6 vs line +4.5; busts.
“I like the Suns and the under tomorrow just because I would have liked,”
Bucks beat Suns 109-103 in Finals Game 4; combined 212 points came in under the roughly 220.5-221 total. (Bucks 109, Suns 103 (212 total; line ~220.5))
“you're taking the the under on yannis i'm taking”
MIL 109, PHX 103 — Giannis Antetokounmpo: 26 points vs under 34.5; covers. (Giannis Antetokounmpo: 26 points)
“so i'm looking at your article you like the yannis under and you like the deandre aiden”
Ayton had 6 pts + 17 reb (23 P+R) in Game 4, well below his series-average P+R (~26.7) and his combined marks in games 1-3 (41, 21, 27); a normal Game 4 line (mid-to-high 20s) would have gone under. (DeAndre Ayton: 6 pts, 17 reb (Bucks 109, Suns 103))
“I think I'm taking the Hawks to win the series because I think that they're a good team,”
The Atlanta Hawks defeated the Philadelphia 76ers 4-3 in the 2021 NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals. Hawks won Game 7 103-96 on June 20. Source: basketball-reference.com / ESPN. (Hawks won series 4-3)
“so i'm going blazers in six and [34:05] hawks in six”
Nuggets beat the Blazers in six games, so the Blazers-in-6 bet lost.
“so i'm going blazers in six and [34:05] hawks in six”
Hawks beat the Knicks in five games, not six, so the Hawks-in-6 bet lost.
“No one's talking about the Sixers. Take the Sixers. [34:30] I think it's still plus 300 [34:31] certain Bucs to win the East. Still [34:33] plus 700 to win it all.”
Sixers lost to the Hawks in the East semifinals and did not win the Eastern Conference.
“I love Portland in six. We know how good they are at home. We know that the road team getting that game six stuck in there, like the pressure of being able to finish that off. Portland in six, you can get at plus 410.”
The Denver Nuggets defeated the Portland Trail Blazers 4-2 in Game 6. The Blazers did not win in 6; Nuggets won the series in 6. (Basketball-Reference: 2021 WCF First Round Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets) (Nuggets won series 4-2 (clinched in G6))
“my angles that I play on this, Lakers minus 1.5 in the series is plus 130. So all that means is the Lakers win the series and not in seven. I don't feel like they would need to go to seven games on this.”
The Phoenix Suns defeated the LA Lakers 4-2 in the 2021 NBA Western Conference First Round. Lakers -1.5 series requires a Lakers win of 4-2 or better; Lakers lost the series. (Basketball-Reference: 2021 WCF First Round Lakers vs. Suns) (Suns won series 4-2)
“the one i really like is lakers to go up two to one in the series which is at plus 142 i feel like this just sets up as like okay lebron and davis they got in the play-in they they know that they're the seventh seed all they have to do to change all that is just win one of the first two road games”
Game 1: Suns won 99-90 (May 23). Game 2: Lakers won 109-102 (May 25). Game 3: Lakers won 109-95 (May 27). After Game 3 the Lakers led the series 2-1. (ESPN game results; landofbasketball.com box scores) (Lakers led 2-1 after G3 on May 27)
“my top position here is just Hawks at minus 1.5 in the series, which is plus 190 at BetMGM”
The Atlanta Hawks defeated the New York Knicks 4-1 in the 2021 NBA Eastern Conference First Round. A -1.5 series spread requires the Hawks to win by 2+ games (i.e., 4-2 or better); winning 4-1 covers. (Basketball-Reference: 2021 ECF First Round Hawks vs. Knicks) (Hawks won series 4-1)
“It's plus 2,200 at BetMGM.”
The 2021 NBA Finals was Bucks vs. Suns. Neither the Nets nor the Nuggets reached the Finals. Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_NBA_Finals (Finals: Bucks def. Suns 4-2)
“I'm taking Bucs Nuggets.”
The Bucks reached the Finals and won, but their opponent was the Suns, not the Nuggets. Denver did not make the Finals. Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_NBA_Finals (Finals: Bucks def. Suns 4-2)
“I'll take Sixers-Lakers.”
The 2021 NBA Finals was Bucks vs. Suns. Neither the Sixers nor the Lakers reached the Finals. Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_NBA_Finals (Finals: Bucks def. Suns 4-2)
“Ingles is still 100 to 1, only at MGM.”
Jordan Clarkson of the Utah Jazz won the 2020-21 NBA Sixth Man of the Year Award. Joe Ingles was a finalist but did not win. Source: nba.com/news/utah-jazz-guard-jordan-clarkson-wins-2020-21-kia-nba-sixth-man-award (Winner: Jordan Clarkson (Utah Jazz))
“i'm taking the over here 13 and a half rebounds plus assess”
ORL 112, PHX 111 — Nikola Vucevic: 45 pra vs over 13.5; covers. (Nikola Vucevic: 45 pra)
“versus the field. I'm taking Steph. He's the best shooter. He's only won it once. The great,”
Stephen Curry won the 2021 NBA All-Star Three-Point Contest at State Farm Arena, Atlanta (Mar 7, 2021) with a final-round score of 28, defeating Mike Conley Jr. (27). Source: NBA.com 2021 Three-Point Contest results (https://www.nba.com/news/2021-mtn-dew-3-point-contest). (Curry 28 pts (final round), 1st place)
“Today is a fade the point guards day, and I am fading Jordan Clarkson.”
PHI 131, UTAH 123 — Jordan Clarkson: 10 points vs under 19.5; covers. (Jordan Clarkson: 10 points)
“Grabbing the Pacers minus 1.5 against the Warriors and the Heat minus 2.5 against the”
Parlay busts: Pacers -1.5 -1.5 — lost; Heat -2.5 -2.5 — won.
“the over 15.5 rebounds plus assists he's had games in this stretch where he's getting close to that number just on assists alone the other day we played him over eight and a half assists he hit that in the first half and um we are projecting him at i think 60 or 16 or 17 combined rebounds and assists he can have a big night in either one of those areas”
Draymond Green was a late scratch for the Warriors vs. Heat game on February 17, 2021, due to right ankle soreness and did not play. As a DNP, the prop is void. Source: Golden State of Mind 'Warriors news: Draymond Green a late scratch vs. Heat'; Yahoo Sports. (DNP — right ankle soreness)
“So I'm sticking in that game and I'm going to play Will Barton. and for some reason tonight will barton's line for assist is still at 2.5 wow will barton that's it only at fan duel it's at 3.5 elsewhere hopefully it's still at 2.5 when you can play this now i'm taking the over it is at minus 164”
DEN 133, CLE 95 — Will Barton: 0 assists vs over 2.5; busts. (Will Barton: 0 assists)
“i taking a center at a 0 number ladies and gentlemen daniel gafford starting center chicago bulls under 0 assists that is at plus 152 at fam duel get it while it's there because these tiny lines have a tendency to disappear”
CHI 103, NY 107 — Daniel Gafford: 1 assists vs under 0.5; busts. (Daniel Gafford: 1 assists)
“First prop, 20 bucks on Brooke Lopez over 10.5 points.”
Brook Lopez scored 21 points (8-of-11 shooting) in the Bucks' 115-108 win over Toronto on Jan 27, 2021, clearing the 10.5-point line. (Brook Lopez: 21 pts on 8-11 FG)
“Next up is $20 on Evan Fournier, over 17.5 points.”
ORL 107, SAC 121 — Evan Fournier: 25 points vs over 17.5; covers. (Evan Fournier: 25 points)
“Last prop for today is $10 on Rashawn Holmes. That's Sacramento. $10 Rashawn Holmes over 11.5 points.”
ORL 107, SAC 121 — Richaun Holmes: 20 points vs over 11.5; covers. (Richaun Holmes: 20 points)
“Then I'm going to go $20 on the over in the Detroit-Cleveland game.”
CLE 122, DET 107 — Combined 229; over 213.5 covers.
“Two bets left, $20 on the Pacers.”
CHA 106, IND 116 — Indiana Pacers margin +10 vs line -1.5; covers.
“Warriors, Suns, Nuggets, Parley at plus 179 at DraftKings.”
Parlay busts: Warriors ML — won; Suns ML — lost; Nuggets ML — won.
“So I'm taking the Los Angeles Clippers team over 120.5.”
LAC 115, SAC 96 — Combined 211; over 120.5 covers.
“So I'm going to take the under at 220 and falling.”
ATL 123, DET 115 — Combined 238; under 220 busts.
“so i'm grabbing two of these today 20 bucks each so first one going back to the nets here deandre jordan over one and a half assists”
CLE 147, BKN 135 — DeAndre Jordan: 0 assists vs over 1.5; busts. (DeAndre Jordan: 0 assists)
“so last couple bets i mentioned this earlier in the net section i'm putting ten dollars on the net second quarter it's minus two and a half”
Nets vs Cavaliers Jan 20, 2021: Q1 ended CLE 24, BKN 23 (Cavs led by 1). Q2 ended tied 49-49 (Nets scored 26 in Q2, Cavs scored 25). Nets won Q2 by only 1 point, not covering -2.5. Game final: Cavs 147-135 (2OT). Source: basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202101200CLE.html (Q2: Nets 26, Cavs 25 (Nets +1 in Q2, needed +2.5))
“Anytime I can get the Bucs as basically all I have to do is win by double digits against a bad team, I'm always that's going to catch my every time so I'm going $50 box 10 and a half to cover”
DET 101, MIL 110 — Milwaukee Bucks margin +9 vs line -10.5; busts.
“This was at six when I rode it yesterday. I liked it a little better there at seven and a half. It's definitely losing some of that value. So I'm at $15 on the Clippers to cover the seven and a half.”
OKC 99, LAL 128 — Los Angeles Lakers margin +29 vs line -7.5; covers.
“i'm taking the over against the grizzlies over 221.5 right now the grizzlies offense sucks but so does the timberwolves defense someone's going to score”
MIN 107, MEM 118 — Combined 225; over 221.5 covers.
“I'm going $10 on Brooke Lopez over half an assist. All he's got to do is just get one.”
DET 101, MIL 110 — Brook Lopez: 1 assists vs over 0.5; covers. (Brook Lopez: 1 assists)
“I got $15 on Brandon Ingram over five and a half rebounds. Ingram's rebounding is a career high right now.”
Brandon Ingram grabbed 6 rebounds (22 pts) in the Clippers' 111-106 win over New Orleans, clearing 5.5. (Brandon Ingram: 22 pts, 6 reb)
“I am going to put together a parlay. uh just a sprinkle just a sprinkle 15 15 nicks money line plus 195 versus the nets on the back to back and hornets plus 155 i'm with rahim i'm betting against the mavericks shorthanded”
Parlay busts: Knicks ML — lost; Hornets ML — lost.
“Jalen Brown that's the most improved player. You see it on the court. His playmaking is huge. His assist rate is almost double from last year His three percentage is great He at 26 points a game right now”
The 2020-21 NBA Most Improved Player Award was won by Julius Randle of the New York Knicks. Jaylen Brown was not the winner. Source: https://www.nba.com/news/julius-randle-named-2020-21-kia-nba-most-improved-player (MIP winner: Julius Randle (NYK))
“I'm going under Atlanta, 35 and a half wins.”
The Atlanta Hawks finished the 2020-21 NBA regular season with a 41-31 record, well over the 35.5-win total. (Wikipedia: 2020-21 Atlanta Hawks season; basketball-reference.com) (41-31)
“I'll go with the Portland over so over 40 and a half Portland is just a really good consistent quality team”
The Portland Trail Blazers finished the 2020-21 NBA regular season with a 42-30 record, over the 40.5-win total. (Wikipedia: 2020-21 Portland Trail Blazers season; basketball-reference.com) (42-30)
“I'm going with Indiana. Indiana is boring. They are the same thing they are every year. And the thing they are every year is that they win a bunch of games and I'm taking Indiana over 38 and a half.”
The Indiana Pacers finished the 2020-21 NBA regular season with a 34-38 record, under the 38.5-win total. (Wikipedia: 2020-21 Indiana Pacers season; basketball-reference.com) (34-38)
“I'm taking Toronto at plus 450 to win the Atlantic.”
The Philadelphia 76ers won the 2020-21 NBA Atlantic Division with a 49-23 record. The Toronto Raptors finished 27-45, fifth in the Atlantic Division. (Wikipedia: 2020-21 Toronto Raptors season; basketball-reference.com) (Raptors 27-45; 76ers won Atlantic)
“I'm picking the Miami Heat plus 1200 miss the playoffs”
The Miami Heat made the 2020-21 NBA playoffs, qualifying via the play-in tournament with a 40-32 record. They were swept by the Milwaukee Bucks 4-0 in the first round. (Wikipedia: 2020-21 Miami Heat season; ESPN) (Heat made playoffs, swept by Bucks in R1)