Chris Raybon

“[23:19] uh sunday night best actor i'm going timothy chalamet uh all the way here uh he's you get [23:26] you could get him at plus juice now now i do think michael b jordan was a great bet up until like [23:31] last well up until the sag essentially when now he has overtaken uh timothy for the weed [23:38] i i still think timothy was better i think i think it is extremely difficult to play two [23:43] characters the way mbj did i think he was great at what he did but just watching the movie i thought [23:49] But Timothy, I mean, that was the most realistic, like fleeting. [23:52] Like I've never seen such realistic pleading in a movie so many times as I do with Timmy. [23:58] He was an annoying character. [24:00] So I think he might be getting some hate for that. [24:01] But that would be my pick. [24:02] You could get him at plus 178 in DK Predictions, plus 185 on the sportsbook.”

Michael B. Jordan won Best Actor; Timothee Chalamet did not.

“he had like the facial expressions and just but skarsgard was almost like the main character in sentimental value he could have been he could have been put in need for sure so the fact that he's plus 376 on dk predictions plus 400 on dk sports i think he's the clear choice and that and then you go to dk predictions you could also bet sean penn no at plus 257 which i think is great because”

Sean Penn won Best Supporting Actor; Stellan Skarsgard did not.

“curious as to your opinion on these these are a couple of my probably my two favorite bets of this Oscar season. And you're going to laugh at who I'm picking. Best production design. Sinners. Plus 600.”

Frankenstein won Best Production Design; Sinners did not.

“If you like that, best makeup and hairstyling, sinners, plus 800.”

Frankenstein won Best Makeup and Hairstyling; Sinners did not.

“so best animated short butterfly is even money gold derby has it at 74 uh implied minus 291”

The Girl Who Cried Pearls won Best Animated Short; Butterfly did not.

“and then live action short, a friend of Dorothy. Gold Derby has it as the favorite. 53% of Gold Derby picks a friend of Dorothy. You know what its price is on draftings? Plus 400. so bang that best live action short A Friend of Dorothy”

Best Live Action Short ended in a tie between The Singers and Two People Exchanging Saliva; A Friend of Dorothy did not win.

“All 1,000, JSN MVP. So they all gave you the reasoning for JSN MVP. I don't need to do that. Give you the game theory. I figured that being how smart everybody's going to be, that they were going to try to come up with these combinations. So my thing was I wanted to go one bet. I thought that was the sharpest way to go. And you matched it. So you knew what was up. And then my other thing was I didn't want to add a bunch of – because everyone's going with – I thought they were going to go more bets. I needed something with the least amount of multiple events to happen and the most outs. And I think this JSN plus, you know, plus 550, all 1000, solves all those”

Seahawks beat Patriots 29-13 in Super Bowl LX but Kenneth Walker III won MVP, not Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2+ touchdowns
• Drake Maye anytime touchdown

“So I'm going to go JSN two touchdowns. That's at plus 500. And then you throw in that May touchdown, which, yeah, a little bit overvalued. But you throw it in the parlay with JSN two. And now you're at 19 to one on drafting.”

Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored 0 TDs (not 2+) and Drake Maye scored no rushing/receiving TD in Super Bowl LX (Feb 8, 2026). (JSN 0 TD; Maye 0 rush/rec TD)

“in the spot. Yeah, and I'm going with JSN here. Let's get the anchor going. Again, I think best player on the field. He's scored in over half his games already this season, and this is a spot, a very unique spot where, you know, the Seahawks are facing a defense that just hasn't given up much on the ground, especially in terms of touchdowns, so that, you know, with JSN getting such a high target share already, and the Seahawks also usually keep guys in the block, right? So So 50% of the time, they keep either a tight end or a running back in to block. So that just leaves a more concentrated target share among the guys that are in the route. So JSN, that 30% target share, I expect it to go up in this game. So it's going to be JSN minus 110.”

Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 4 catches for 27 yards and no touchdown.

• AJ Barner anytime touchdown won
• Drake Maye anytime touchdown lost
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime touchdown lost

“So it's going to be JSN minus 110. Barner at plus 240. Drake May at plus 270. JSN at minus 110. You can parlay those at DraftKings, and you get 20 to one odd.”

AJ Barner scored a TD, but Drake Maye and Jaxon Smith-Njigba did not, in Super Bowl LX (Feb 8, 2026); parlay busts on two of three legs. (Barner 1 TD; Maye 0 TD; JSN 0 TD)

“I'm going to go Elijah Arroyo here at uh at 10 to 1”

Elijah Arroyo did not score a touchdown in SB LX.

“I'm going Kenneth Walker under 73.5 rushing yards.”

NE 13, SEA 29 — Kenneth Walker III: 135 rushing_yards vs under 73.5; busts. (Kenneth Walker III: 135 rushing_yards)

“I am going with the Seattle Seahawks team total under 106 and a half rushing yards.”

NE 13, SEA 29 — Kenneth Walker III alone rushed for 135 yards (27 carries); Seahawks team rushing total exceeds 106.5; under busts. (Seahawks team rushing yards >=135 (Kenneth Walker III: 135 rushing_yards))

“but for my official play jackson smith and jigba minus 110 to me again i i look at this game i know the patriots are excellent we coached defensively with vrabel i know they have fisher gonzalez but when i look at this game i say who is the best player on the field to meet as jsn if there's any receiver in this league that can beat gonzalez it's jsn”

Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 4 catches for 27 yards and no touchdown.

• AJ Barner anytime touchdown won
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime touchdown lost

“yeah, give me JSN. You got Barner. You parlay those two together. At DraftKings, you get a 6-1 payout. And yeah, I think these are the two most likely guys on Seattle to score. And I wouldn't even mind adding some Kenneth Walker no to that. But for the official parlay, we're going Barner plus 240 jsn minus 110 plus 600 that is our super bowl 60 anytime touchdown parlay presented by draft games”

AJ Barner caught a 16-yard TD from Sam Darnold, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba did not score, in Seattle's 29-13 Super Bowl LX win (Feb 8, 2026); parlay busts on the JSN leg. (Barner 1 TD; JSN 0 TD)

“So I think Drake May is live here to lead the game in rushing yards. So let's lock him in at six to one.”

Kenneth Walker III (135 rush yds, Super Bowl MVP) led all rushers in Seattle's 29-13 Super Bowl LX win (Feb 8, 2026); Drake Maye had just 37 rushing yards. (Maye 37 rush yds vs Walker 135 rush yds)

“i'm gonna go with drake may uh let's go with his median rushing over 37 and a half as well”

NE 13, SEA 29 — Drake Maye: 37 rushing_yards vs over 37.5; busts. (Drake Maye: 37 rushing_yards)

“I'm going to go with Travion Henderson, 50 plus rushing yards at plus seven 80 for my third.”

NE 13, SEA 29 — TreVeyon Henderson had 19 rushing yards and did not reach the 50-or-more rushing-yards threshold. (TreVeyon Henderson: 19 rushing yards)

“but I'll take Drake May as my official pick here at plus 230. I'm going to go with Jackson Smith and Jigba at plus 550. I think he's the best value on the board by far, because if you look at the past, yes, quarterbacks have won the award at a staggering rate.”

Kenneth Walker III won SB LX MVP; Jaxon Smith-Njigba had just 4 catches for 27 yards.

“Kenneth Walker, that was the first bet I locked in, got his rushing yardage. uh prop at 84 and a half i believe it's down it should be down in the 70s by now let's see what is it it is yeah 70s anywhere from 74 to 78 i have it at 73 so still a little bit of value there but um this new england run defense again i just think you know walker's already been a guy that's known to kind of get stuffed and even on that touchdown run a couple weeks ago we saw him kind of you know break it outside and that could have easily gone for a loss so i think you could get some negative runs with him um and to kind of supplement that and there's a good chance that you know denver had to do it because they had a backup quarterback so they ran a little more than usual still not a ton but um there's a chance seattle goes pass heavy in this game which does favor your darnold uh call as well so i i like the the walker under rushing yards the median and i liked his long rush under especially if you can get it at 16 and a half i believe he's been under”

NE 13, SEA 29 — Kenneth Walker III: 135 rushing_yards vs under 84.5; busts. (Kenneth Walker III: 135 rushing_yards)

“I'm going to go with Adam Troutman. So hopefully, Kerner, between you and I, one of these guys score. But Troutman's 12-1.”

Adam Trautman did not score in the Broncos' 10-7 AFC Championship loss to the Patriots (only TDs were Maye rush and Sutton receiving).

“Let's go with Jordan Whittington of the Rams [19:40] at 11 to one.”

Jordan Whittington did not score a touchdown in the Rams' 31-27 NFC Championship loss to the Seahawks.

“So I'm going to go with Marvin Mims because I need [23:11] to compete with Shahid here.”

Marvin Mims did not have the longest TD on the slate; Puka Nacua's 34-yard receiving TD was the longest.

“But yeah, we know Justin Herbert just pukes in the playoffs. And then CJ Stroud, I mean, still threw the ball 47 times. And, you know, there's also, you know, like if you don't believe in Stidham, like if you think maybe he's getting a little too hyped up now by, you know, maybe his sharps are on him or whatever it is. Like, okay, if Stidham does shit the bed and like throw a pick six or something, fumble, whatever, like if the Patriots get another defensive score, that just puts Stidham right back on the field. And remember, Sean Payton is just not running the ball, and no one's running the ball against the Patriots. So I love to sit him over pass attempts. Don't mind the overpassing yards as well. I think it's still under 200. I have it into the high 200s, so I think that's another option. But I like the attempts because I think there's a variety of ways that he gets there just in the normal scheme of the game, whether winning or losing. I think if they're winning, it's because they're throwing the ball. I think if they're losing, they're going to throw the ball. uh that's just what we've seen from Sean Payton through his entire tenure so uh give me Stidham over 31 and a half passes I have it projected at 34 and a half I was pretty surprised to see the market so well but they usually kind of ding back up quarterbacks a little bit but um in this in Denver's like the the team's uh pass rate over expected is generally pretty sticky um so even if you do kind of knock it down which I have you know for for Stidham um he's I'm still getting 34 and a half you know with knicks again they were passing it like one of the highest rates in the league i just don't think people noticed because it was knicks and he was running a lot scrambling and whatnot but yeah i think that i think that the market is too low on on stidham so give me 31 and a half over for his pass attempts”

Jarrett Stidham attempted 31 passes (17-of-31) in the AFC Championship, under the 31.5 line.

“I'm going to go with Sam Darnold longest rush under six and a half yards.”

SEA 31, LAR 27 — Sam Darnold: 9 rushing_yards vs under 6.5; busts. (Sam Darnold: 9 rushing_yards)

“And along those same lines, I'm actually going to go with Adam Troutman here. And it's funny that you said H-back because I was just joking. We just did the touchdown show, and I was just joking with – on the DraftKings segment, I believe, I was joking about how, like, Sean Payton is one of the only coaches that probably actually has an H-back like listed on the play sheet, like in his formation. He just loves these like heavy personnel, you know, formations and whatnot. So I love the Atkins call. I'm going with Troutman for some similar reasons. He essentially has been, people might not have noticed, but he's essentially the Broncos starting tight end. Like Evan Ingram has seen his role kind of reduced as the season has progressed. Last week, Troutman and Ingram played the same amount of pass snaps. The only difference was Troutman did pass block a lot more, but he also passed block a lot more than he usually does on the season. Like he passed, he passed blocked on about 40% of his path of the plays that he was on the field for pass wise. And for the season, he's that's, it going to be more around a third about 30 or so So he in this game I expect him to run a few more routes on the plays he on the field and if you look in the red zone he had six snaps evan ingram had three he ran three routes evan ingram ran one so uh like evan ingram ran the same amount of red zone routes as uh from the the sixth lineman so evan ingram just never been a touchdown guy troutman plays in the red zone just like Adkins he's one of those guys that the other team you know if he blocks he starts to play blocking he can easily slip out just like the linemen did last week so uh like you said Stidham has worked with both of these guys a ton Adkins Troutman because they have been on the second team together um for most of the year still so uh like Troutman again I think he's uh undervalued as essentially the Broncos starting tight end and uh I like your Adkins play as well But yeah, probably not the best idea to parlay them. One or the other probably hits, but Troutman is 11-1 at DraftKings.”

Adam Trautman did not score a touchdown in the Patriots' 10-7 AFC Championship win over the Broncos.

• Adam Trautman anytime touchdown lost
• Davante Adams anytime touchdown won

“One or the other probably hits, but Troutman is 11-1 at DraftKings. Adkins is 25-1. I think the market's undervaluing both. But our parlay here, Troutman-Adams is 26-1. So like those odds as well, especially, you know, for such a proven guy in Adams to still get to 26-1 with another starter on the other side, I think is a great value. So that will be our anytime touchdown parlay presented by DraftKings.”

Adam Trautman recorded no catches/TD in Denver's 10-7 AFC title loss (Jan 25, 2026), busting the parlay even though Davante Adams scored for the Rams in the NFC title game. (Trautman 0 TD; Adams 1 TD)

“I mean he the guy they always going to try to get the ball to probably the most stable Bronco along with I guess Harvey in this spot I going to go with Josh Allen at even money And for the simple fact that I don trust the Bills passing game at all in this spot. I mean, Broncos defense is elite. They play a lot of man coverage. The Bills really struggle against man coverage. Just look at their top receivers against man coverage this year. Elijah Moore is best in yards versus route run. He's not on the team. Palmer, IR. shavers i are davis i are like shakir is like he's a much better versus zone so it's gonna be tough uh you know especially if sean's coleman pick doesn't hit so but i do think the bills get at least one get it in the end zone so it comes down to josh allen or james cook and allen's been running a ton more in the postseason under offensive coordinator uh joe brady he has eight rushing touchdowns uh in eight games in you know over the last three postseason so uh like allen to get in the end zone again i know he's hurt but i think that's why we're getting even money instead of some minus odds and it's a tough defense but like like alan to kind of put the team on his back as he does so going with him at even money”

Josh Allen scored no rushing or receiving TD (12 carries, 66 yards, 0 rush TD; passing TDs do not count) in the Bills' 33-30 OT loss to the Broncos.

“I'm going to go with Zach Charbonnet at minus 105.”

Zach Charbonnet did not score (5 carries, 20 yards, 0 TD) in the Seahawks' 41-6 win over the 49ers.

“But I'm going to go with a hundred Henry at plus two 10. if the Texans do give up a passing touchdown, I think, you know, giving it up to the tight end could be very likely here, you know, since week 13, they've given up five touchdowns, two tight ends. Tyler Warren got one McBride, got a couple Bowers, a Rondé Gadsden. So pretty much any, you know, kind of upper tier tight end, which I think Henry is, you know, kind of one of the top targets on this team has gotten into the end zone against Houston. And that, that makes sense. Cause it's very tough, you know, to score on their outside corners, Lassiter and Stingley. So Patriots receivers, you know, could be limited here. So, yeah, expect some Drake May scrambling and expecting him to look for Hunter Henry in the red zone.”

Hunter Henry did not score (1 rec, 5 yards, 0 TD) in the Patriots' 28-16 win over the Texans.

“I mean, Colson Loveland, too. I mean, Colson Loveland is just taking off. So, yeah, that's what I'm going with. That's what I'm going with. I thought about Burden. So, I like Burden, too. But I think Burden is a little riskier because there is a chance, you know, it's freezing cold. Bears may want to wean into their, you know, two tight end sets even more. They've even been calling up a fourth tight end to play special teams, Nicola Klinic. So like they're going to have reinforcements at that position. So I think Lovewind is kind of locked in, whereas Burden usage is a little shakier. So at 2-1, I still show value. Owen Burden, he's averaging over a half an expected touchdown per game ever since that breakout game he had against the Bengals midseason. And he's become the number one target here. And yeah, I mentioned it. Rams struggle kind of interior-wise. and this is just the guy that they're going to be looking to in the red zone. We saw them get a matchup, even on a two-point conversion. They got a matchup where they came out heavy and then kind of spread everyone out, and Lovewood was on like a linebacker, edge rusher, somebody big. So they can kind of dictate these things. So I love him to get in the end zone for the Bears.”

Colston Loveland did not score (4 rec, 56 yards, 0 TD) in the Bears' 20-17 OT loss to the Rams.

• Blake Corum anytime TD
• Courtland Sutton anytime TD
• Colston Loveland anytime TD

“But yeah, if you parlay anytime touchdowns [23:22] for Blake Corum, Cortland Sutton, [23:26] and Colston Loveland, 32 to one at draft games.”

Both Blake Corum and Colston Loveland failed to score in the Rams' 20-17 OT win over Chicago (Jan 18, 2026), busting the parlay regardless of the Sutton leg. (Corum 0 TD; Loveland 0 TD)

“Under, full game, 46-and-a-half.”

Broncos beat Bills 33-30 in overtime in the Divisional round (63 combined points), well over the 46.5 total. (Final: DEN 33, BUF 30 (OT))

• Colston Loveland anytime TD
• Blake Corum anytime TD

“matched up on a on a linebacker uh so yeah love loveland in this spot against the rams you can parlay for him with loveland that would be a same game parlay and you get 10 to 1 odds on draft kings so hopefully we get we can uh bring one home at the same time you had tremble in week 18. That was a nice hit. Then Kincaid for me last week. Let's try to get it together here. That's going to be our anytime touchdown parlay. Holston Lovelin, Blake Corum, final game of the weekend presented by DraftKings, 10-1.”

Neither leg hit: Colston Loveland (4 rec, 56 yds, left with a concussion) had no TD, and Blake Corum (6 car, 19 yds) did not score, in the Rams' 20-17 OT win over Chicago (Jan 18, 2026). (Loveland 0 TD; Corum 0 TD)

“in this offense so i think that the way that you would want to attack that rams defense jalen coker is who i like anything over three to one yeah i like coker as well at times he been lately the number one receiver even over Tet if you playing in single receiver sets So like him And I like Tommy Trumbull as well He six to one And a lot of the things you said about Coker are working in Trumbull's favor, too. You know, now as that lead tight end, you know, tight ends usually do better against zone coverage. He can play some snaps in the slot as well. And with Jatavian Sanders out, Tremble's a full-time player. His rate of pass snaps played went up to 88% last week. That was a season high. And if you're playing 88% of the snaps in a game like this, I think you're always going to be a good bet at 6-1. We don't expect a ton of fireworks from Bryce Young, but you could have a trailing game script. Tremble would still be on the field there with whichever three receivers probably would get as the third one. But Tremble would be on the field no matter what. He was the guy that he was top three in red zone routes against Tampa Bay, along with Tett and Jalen Coker. So like Tommy Tremble at six to one.”

Tommy Tremble caught all 3 targets for 22 yards but did not score in the Panthers' 34-31 loss to the Rams.

“the Niners at all in this spot just a really tough matchup so I'm gonna go even chalkier than you Kurt I'm gonna go with Saquon Barkley I do show a little bit of value on him to score and the difference between last season and this season and especially down the stretches you know they're kind of switching it up in terms of Jalen Hurst just getting all the rushing touchdowns, getting all you know just everything a tush push Now they have you know plays off the tush push that are passes They have plays off the tush push that are pitches to Barkley So he scoring more of those you know red zone touchdowns like not necessarily always at the goal line That's, you know, that's going to be, you know, kind of hit or miss depending on where you end up. But he's scoring a lot more touchdowns, you know, in like that 20 to 20 to five yard range. And I think this Niner defense, they'll be vulnerable there because they don't tend to stack the box a ton. they do it at the lowest rate in the league. I don't think that's necessarily going to change too much here. And they don't give up explosives in the pass game, even though they're a bad defense. So you tend to have to still methodically drive down the field. I think that's what the Niners game plan is going to be against Philly, given how Jalen Hurts in that pass game has struggled at times. So I can see Barkley getting a lot of opportunities here. And they've started to kind of give the ball to him more down the stretch. Three rushing touchdowns in his last four games and also has connected with Hurts on a couple of receiving touchdowns. And that's big because the Niners have no linebackers. So I could see Barkley getting kind of an advantageous matchup. He usually plays more in the pass game in the playoffs. Last year, he went from playing about 70% of the time to about 85% of the time in the pass game once the postseason started. So So a lot of reasons to like Saquon here at minus 120.”

Saquon Barkley ran for 106 yards but did not score in the Eagles' 23-19 loss to the 49ers.

“I'm a role with Stefan Diggs at plus 175.”

Stefon Diggs did not score in the Patriots' 16-3 win over the Chargers (Hunter Henry had the only offensive TD).

“scorer but I'm going to go with a Pittsburgh guy here because come on this is Mike Tomlin Steelers home underdog rah-rah spot playoff uh CJ Stroud outdoors going on a road like the Steelers are going to find a way to to to have some voodoo here so uh the guy I'm looking at is Pat Fryer moved that four to one and I do think Houston will be able to make DK Metcalf's return look a lot like last week when he wasn't even there because they have I know Lasseter hasn't practiced but I expect him to to be back and you know Stingley did practice on a limited basis so they're gonna have the the guys on the outside to shut down DK Metcalf the rest of those wide receivers I don't really expect them to make noise in the red zone and you know I think Collinsworth was talking about in that last game against the Ravens how the Ravens were essentially given And Fryermuth, like the Travis Kelsey treatment, they were just straight up doubling him in the red zone. Houston, we'll see what they do. But I just think, you know, with Metcalf probably covered, Fryermuth is going to be that guy. Like Rodgers may even force a throw or two into him So love him at four to one showing a lot of value there And the Texans that been how you get them Since week eight they allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends, not much to wide receivers. And on the ground, it's been kind of hit or missed as well, because they're just the best defense in the league statistically. So tight ends are kind of the way you have to beat the Texans. I think Pat Fryer-Moose comes through here for Pittsburgh.”

Pat Freiermuth had 1 catch for 18 yards and no TD in the Steelers' 30-6 loss to the Texans.

• Woody Marks anytime TD
• Nico Collins anytime TD
• Pat Freiermuth anytime TD

“through here for Pittsburgh. All right, you parlay Marks to score. You parlay Nico Collins to get in the end zone with Pat Friermuth as well. Marks, Collins, Friermuth, same game parlay, 34-1 over at DraftKings. That is our Monday night football parlay for wildcard weekend, Texans-Steelers.”

Texans beat Steelers 30-6; Woody Marks scored a 20-yard rushing TD but Nico Collins (3 rec, 21 yds) and Pat Freiermuth (1 rec, 18 yds) did not score, so the SGP fails. (Marks: rush TD; Collins: 0 TD; Freiermuth: 0 TD)

• Luther Burden III anytime TD
• Nico Collins anytime TD
• Pat Freiermuth anytime TD

“our favorite touchdown bet of wild card weekend. We'll combine those into a parlay. So here is our favorite wild card weekend. Anytime touchdown parlay presented by DraftKings. Kerner, you're up first. Who's your favorite touchdown scorer of this six-game slate? This shouldn't be too surprising, but I'm going to go with Luther Burden III at plus 250. I've given enough Luther Burden propaganda the last couple of months. So just like Ben Johnson said, he's dudes a stud. So he's still my favorite play here at a plus two 50. Joe, who are we looking at? Yeah. My favorite bet is Nico Collins stud wide receiver facing a man coverage, heavy defense. I think this is one where he could score and might even score twice. And I'm going to go with Pat Frymuth. He's a guy I'm showing the most value on. I just think that, you know, even with Metcalf back, it's, he's not, he's going to be occupied with those great Texan corners. And we always know the Steelers find a way here. So four to one, love Friar moves. You parlay Luther Burden, anytime touchdown, Nico Collins, anytime touchdown, Pat Friar moves, anytime touchdown, and you get odds of just over 39 to one at DraftKings plus 3920 to be exact. That was our favorite anytime touchdown parlay. for Wild Card Weekend presented by DraftKings. And we'll add those Parleys to the Parley Express account in the Action Network app.”

None of the three legs hit: Luther Burden III (3 rec, 42 yds, 0 TD) vs Packers, plus Nico Collins and Pat Freiermuth also scoreless vs Steelers. (Burden: 0 TD; Collins: 0 TD; Freiermuth: 0 TD)

“And I just think this Bills defense is overrated and we're playing in Jacksonville. So give me the Jags plus one and a half.”

Bills beat Jaguars 27-24 in the Wild Card round; Jacksonville lost by 3, failing to cover +1.5. (Final: BUF 27, JAX 24)

“I'm going with the Los Angeles Chargers plus three and a half at the New England Patriots.”

NE 16, LAC 3 — Los Angeles Chargers margin -13 vs line +3.5; busts.

“So give me Tampa Bay. minus two and a half at home against Carolina on Saturday.”

TB 16, CAR 14 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers margin +2 vs line -2.5; busts.

“For my third pick and the sixth overall of the Week 18 six-pack, I am going with the Miami Dolphins plus 10.5 at the New England Patriots.”

NE 38, MIA 10 — Miami Dolphins margin -28 vs line +10.5; busts.

“I'm going Raven Steelers under 41 and a half.”

PIT 26, BAL 24 — Combined 50; under 41.5 busts.

“But for the Chiefs oh man I don know if I given this guy out all year but it pretty much the only guy I think has a chance to score in this game for the Chiefs Isaiah Pacheco at plus 440”

Isaiah Pacheco did not score a touchdown in the Chiefs' 20-13 Christmas loss to Denver.

“Let's start it off with the Seattle Seahawks at the Carolina Panthers for Seattle. Now, it's pretty simple. It's Jackson Smith, Najigba, this week, every week. I mean, he's just probably been the best receiver in football this year, going up against the Panthers.”

Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 9 passes for 72 yards with no touchdown in the Seahawks' 27-10 win at Carolina.

“So let's go with Coker here at plus 360.”

Jalen Coker caught both targets for 16 yards and did not score in the Panthers' 27-10 loss to Seattle.

“for the bengals uh wrong with t higgins here i mean this guy just scores every single week when he's on the field joe burrow is just looking a lot better throwing the football”

Tee Higgins did not score in the Bengals' 37-14 win over Arizona (Cincy TDs: Chase x2 rec, Brown x2 rush, Perine rush).

“So on the right track but for the Dolphins we going to go with Jalen Waddle for now plus 190”

Jaylen Waddle (rib injury) did not score in the Dolphins' 20-17 win over Tampa Bay.

“with the carolina panthers plus seven and a half at home against the seattle seahawks now i just”

CAR 10, SEA 27 — Carolina Panthers margin -17 vs line +7.5; busts.

“But I going to go with the Bucs Dolphins over 45 Dolphins defense kind of played the way I thought they would finally I mean I think they been just getting lucky with the opponents”

MIA 20, TB 17 — Combined 37; over 45 busts.

“This is a kind of a crapshoot game where I think he can go with a little bit off the board here for the Jets I'm going to go with Jeremy Rucker the backup tight end who will get the start here at plus 530 just got the contract extension so they could be trying I mean they don't have anything to play for they could be trying for a little positive PR you know you just gave the guy a contract extension try to get him in the end zone here he'll get the start at tight end for the injured Mason Taylor”

Jeremy Ruckert did not score; the Jets managed only field goals in their 29-6 loss at New Orleans.

“That homeserve slash podcast Savings compared to renewal price Void in Florida Bengals Dolphins Quinn Ewers getting a start from Miami Got to go with Greg Dosich at six to one for Miami Ewers backup quarterback probably going to rely on the tight end And who has he probably been thrown to on that scout team on the second team Greg Dosich Greg Dosich has been the backup And now, you know, Waller is on the injury report. I suspected he would be. I know he ended up going back in and catching a couple touchdowns against the Steelers. But it is a short week. And with the Dolphins kind of sitting here out of the picture, they could take it easy with Waller here. So I wouldn't be surprised if Dulcich sees a lot of run in this one. His route rate is starting to go up anyway over the last couple of games. Had a 60% two games ago. So I think it could get back to that point with you as that quarterback here.”

Greg Dulcich did not score; Miami's TDs went to De'Von Achane and Malik Washington in the 45-21 loss to Cincinnati.

“And the Bengals have been the worst team in the league at defending tight ends, giving up the most touchdowns by a landslide over second place. And for Cincinnati, Tanner Hudson, 7-1. I feel like this is a very Kerner type of game here because I know Kerner would probably be on both of these guys. Tanner Hudson, 7-1. Noah Pham banged up. Drew Sample banged up. And Hudson, when he gets snaps, they're usually in the red zone. So even though he doesn't get many snaps, if you look at the overall snap rate, they usually come in high leverage situations. That's why we've seen him catch a couple of these random touchdowns already this year. So love him at 7-1 in a game he actually could see a bit of an uptick in his usage rate on all parts of the field.”

Tanner Hudson did not score; Bengals TDs went to Tee Higgins, Samaje Perine and Chase Brown in the 45-21 win at Miami.

“Pittsburgh at Detroit. High total game in this one for the Steelers. I'm going with DK Metcalf at plus 180.”

DK Metcalf had 4 catches for 42 yards and no TD in the Steelers' 29-24 win at Detroit.

“and in a trailing game script too and then for the Detroit Lions gotta go with Shane Zylstra here he has essentially taken over their starting tight end role remember Laporta on IR Brock Wright same thing they cut Ross Dwelly uh Berkser was filling that role for a minute but Zylstra has been on the IR since early in the year. He came off and he was their top tight end in the red zone, ran just as many red zone routes as Isaac Teslaw last week. So I was looking at Teslaw, but then saw that Zylstra has even longer odds. And remember, this is the same Shane Zylstra that once upon a time did score three touchdowns in the same game for the Detroit Lions. so I think he's sneaky here at plus 550.”

Shane Zylstra had 3 catches for 20 yards and no TD in the Lions' 29-24 loss to Pittsburgh.

“I'm going with the Baltimore Ravens minus three at home”

BAL 24, NE 28 — Baltimore Ravens margin -4 vs line -3; busts.

“I'm going to go with the Bills-Browns under 42-and-a-half.”

CLE 20, BUF 23 — Combined 43; under 42.5 busts.

“Buffalo, New England. I'm excited about this game for the Bills. I'm going to roll with Gabe Davis at plus 275. Gabe Davis has been leading, as Jill, you pointed out, off air. He's been leading the Bills in receiving snaps at wide receiver over the last couple of games. They picked him up four games ago, and I have him for about one and a half expected touchdowns over that span. Hasn't gotten into the end zone yet.”

Gabe Davis did not appear in the receiving stats and scored no TD in the Bills' 35-31 win at New England.

“But, Raybon, I think we're back here because even though this is Thursday night, T. Higgins is technically practice Wednesday and Thursday. I don't think he's going to come back for this week. Raybon, we're back. We're taking Mitchell Tinsley here at 4-1.”

Mitchell Tinsley had 1 catch for 16 yards and no TD in the Bengals' 24-0 shutout loss to Baltimore.

“uh all right we got browns at bears this one could get ugly i'm gonna go colston loveland for the bears at plus 275 uh him and commit i think are good bets to get in the end zone here”

Colston Loveland caught passes but scored no TD in the Bears' 31-3 win over Cleveland.

“I want to go Harold Fanning here, but the Bears actually, their cornerback room continues to just be decimated by injury. So I'm going to roll with Jerry Judy here against probably to the chagrin of like Steve Smith Sr. But Jerry Judy at four to one.”

Jerry Jeudy caught 2 passes for 22 yards and no TD in the Browns' 31-3 loss at Chicago.

“bit uh rams hosting the lions love this for touchdowns this should be a high scoring game got the total around 55 so let's start with the rams davante adams i'm gonna bet him for two plus here at plus 360”

Davante Adams had 4 catches for 71 yards and 0 TDs in the Rams' 41-34 win over the Lions, so 2+ TD lost.

“Oh yeah, they are. They're one of those teams. I mean, they're not as bad as the Bengals, but they do give up a ton of production to tight ends. I'm actually going to go with a wide receiver on the dolphins though. And, and, uh, it's Jalen Waddle just because he's really been dominating the wide receiver room and the pass catcher room in general uh really the only guy you can depend on for a 90 snap rate uh and he has by far the most expected uh receiving touchdowns on the dolphins and he's even getting the most red zone snaps which you know sometimes a smaller guy like him you would expect you know uh that to see a little bit of a downtick but uh he's been in there when it's uh when they're in scoring position and they haven't really trailed a ton as of late like they've been in a lot of games they are underdogs here so Waddle has seen you know half of his touchdowns in these trailing game scripts so I think there's going to be a little bit of an uptick there because he just hasn't had many of them so I think that could go up but his touchdown rate in trailing game scripts is higher in terms of per reception than when it's tied or when they are leading so like Jalen Waddle at two to one”

Jaylen Waddle did not score; both Dolphins TDs went to Darren Waller in the 28-15 MNF Week 15 loss.

“I'm going with the Green Bay Packers minus two at the Denver Broncos.”

DEN 34, GB 26 — Green Bay Packers margin -8 vs line -2; busts.

“I am going with the Kansas City Chiefs minus four and a half at home against the Los Angeles Chargers.”

KC 13, LAC 16 — Kansas City Chiefs margin -3 vs line -4.5; busts.

“I'm going with the Cleveland Browns plus seven and a half at the Chicago Bears.”

CHI 31, CLE 3 — Cleveland Browns margin -28 vs line +7.5; busts.

• Adonai Mitchell anytime TD
• Tee Higgins anytime TD
• Michael Wilson anytime TD

“All right, before we get into the primetime games, we'll do our favorite Sunday anytime touchdown daytime parlay presented by DraftKings. And Kerner, you're first up. Who do we like on the Sunday slate for a touchdown? Your favorite bet. Yeah, my favorite bet's A.D. Mitchell at plus 240. You know, I've been talking up all week. uh he's he's always had a ton of talent figured it would take some time for him uh to really break out but i think we saw that last week and he is a full-time true alpha receiver on the jets right now so just gonna ride the wave here and take him at uh plus 240 joe going with t higgins full practice on thursday trending up from the concussion so i i think he's in a prime spot to score especially when we're getting him around plus 185 and i'm gonna go off the board here i I didn't get this game, but I'm going with Michael Wilson of the Cardinals, plus 195. The reason, he's had over 500 yards in the games Jacoby Brissett has started. Zero touchdowns, but I have his expected touchdowns at three. So he should have three more touchdowns. Just in the last seven games alone, then he scored. So I think he's the guy that is due. And you look at the Cardinals injury report. Marvin Harrison might miss again. Greg Dortch banged up as well. So it's really going to be probably the McBride and Michael Wilson show in this one against the Rams. So give me Michael Wilson at plus 195. You parlay Wilson along with A.D. Mitchell and T. Higgins. And you get parlay odds at DraftKings of just over 28 to 1. So nice juicy one there. That was our favorite. Anytime touchdown parlay. for the Sunday afternoon suite presented by DraftKings.”

Adonai Mitchell had no TD vs the Dolphins (1 catch, 24 yds); Higgins (2 TD) and Wilson (2 TD) hit, but the parlay lost on the Mitchell leg. (Mitchell: 1 rec, 24 yds, 0 TD; Higgins: 2 TD; Wilson: 2 TD)

“For me, I'm going to go to another guy that did practice, has missed some time, but Noah Gray at 10-1, and this is just one of those things where he's a little underpriced, coming back off an injury. And the Texans, we know they're really good on the outside at corner. So I think this is a game where Andy Reid may try to get some heavier personnel in there near their goal line. And you're going to be covering Travis Kelsey first and foremost. So that leads me to Gray, who I think can kind of sneak by and get an easy touchdown here. So like Gray, around 10-1.”

Noah Gray had 1 catch for 14 yards and no TD in the Chiefs' 20-10 loss to Houston.

“I'm going to go with Kamani Vidal here at plus 310.”

Kimani Vidal had no TD (56 rush yards, 60 receiving) in the Chargers' 22-19 OT win over Philadelphia.

“three but haven't gotten involved yet myself but for my first pick in the second overall the week 14 Sunday six-pack I'm going with the Atlanta Falcons plus seven and a half at home against the Seattle Seahawks. There's a 7.5 minus 120 out there as we're recording this. I'm fine with that. I'm also fine with a 7.”

ATL 9, SEA 37 — Atlanta Falcons margin -28 vs line +7.5; busts.

“i'm going to go with the raven [59:22] steelers uh under that's still 43 and a half”

BAL 22, PIT 27 — Combined 49; under 43.5 busts.

• Titans ML closed +165 · CLV +11¢ won
• Bengals ML closed +230 · CLV -5¢ lost

“So you got the Bengals at plus 225. So give me Cincinnati there. And then Titans plus 176. You pay our parlay those together and you get about eight to one odds on Bengals and Titans”

Parlay busts: Titans ML — won; Bengals ML — lost.

• Josh Whyle anytime TD
• Michael Wilson anytime TD

“But I'm going to go with Josh Wiley, tight end. What did he play, 60% of the snaps last week? Yeah, 63% route rate. Been rising every week too. 8% and then two in the 30s and then you jumped to 63 last week. Yeah, so we'll take a little bit of a long shot. There's some like 12 to 1s out there. And yeah, Bears have injuries in linebacker. They can't get any pressure. And Bobby's not out there to block. Like if he's out there, it's to run routes because he's not like he that's why he's got cut from the Titans of all teams because he's still unwilling or just not a good blocker. You know, you've seen guys like that, but you're in the right situation, which yeah, I agree. I like this one. there's a lot of variance like he could just not he could only play yeah he could go back down to nothing but right we'll take a shot and we've been sitting now but the thing with him is we've been seeing them kind of searching for the tight ends you know i've tried to catch uh fitzpatrick in a bottle and then they've got been going back and forth with musgrave and but why is the guy that's been he's been steadily rising and he actually did catch a red zone td i think a couple weeks ago so um he could just be earning more playing time we'll see how it goes uh but now I like that one, especially at, you know, long odds. I'm going to go with a guy with a little shorter odds, but a guy who should have at least one touchdown over the stretch that he's been playing, but just kind of been getting a lot of yards and no scores. And that's Michael Wilson. So we'll go with him at plus 200. The Rams have given up four touchdowns to wide receiver since week 10. Juwan Jennings got in, Tez Johnson, and then you saw Coker and McMillan last week. So, and the Rams probably going to be playing from ahead. And so you're going to have more wide receivers on the field. And this guy Wilson has just been unreal with, with Jacoby Brissett. And it looks like Harrison's probably going to be out again. He came back, had the appendix surgery, came back after a couple of weeks and then only lasted about three quarters or so went down with a heel injury. And it sounds like they're just going to hold them out. It's not official or anything, but as we record this, He's sounding on the wrong side of questionable. So that should help Wilson because he'll just get more targets. They looked like they were trying a concerted effort to get Harrison involved more early in that game last week against Tampa Bay But from what I hearing he going to be out So give me some Michael Wilson here at two to one odds He should have at least one if not two or three touchdowns over this last five, six game stretch. So you parlay Wiley and Wilson together and you get 38 to one odds. So this is a juicy one. Hopefully we can get it home. That was our anytime touchdown parlay presented by DraftKings.”

Josh Whyle had no TD vs the Packers (1 catch, no score) while Michael Wilson caught 2 TDs vs the Rams; parlay needs both legs so it lost on Whyle. (Whyle: 1 rec, 0 TD; Wilson: 11 rec, 142 yds, 2 TD)

“I am going with the Minnesota Vikings plus 10.5 [33:11] at the Seattle Seahawks.”

SEA 26, MIN 0 — Minnesota Vikings margin -26 vs line +10.5; busts.

“I'm going with the Tennessee Titans plus six and a half at home against the Jaguars.”

TEN 3, JAX 25 — Tennessee Titans margin -22 vs line +6.5; busts.

“I'm going to go with Colby Parkinson. keeps scoring and he keeps being undervalued by the market he is the lead tight end for the Rams now Higby was who is on IR now was splitting work with Parkinson on early downs Ferguson on third downs and Allen was kind of you know Allen was in Allen's role so it doesn't change much so Parkinson because early downs are you're usually getting about 70 to 80 percent of your plays run on early downs Parkinson had the most snaps to gain from Higby's injury and sure enough He did surpass a 50% route rate last week and was the Rams weed tight end, got in the end zone again. And now you're facing the Panthers with no linebackers. The Panthers team is terrible against tight ends as it is.”

Colby Parkinson did not score in the Rams' 31-28 loss at Carolina; Rams TDs were Adams (x2), Corum and Kyren Williams.

“NFL. So anything over plus 200, I'm going to take Christian Watson. I'm going to go with Amon Ross St. Brown, a monstrous game last week, him and Gibbs. I think they're going to have to lean on these guys again. Green Bay, very zone heavy team, including in the red zone, third most zone coverage in the red zone. And that's important because Green Bay is not going to give up a ton of explosives because they tend to sit back in zone. And so you're going to have to kind of move it up and down the field methodically on them. But Amon Ra leads the Lions in targets, first reads, and is tied for the team lead in touchdowns in the red zone against zone coverage. So you parlay, Amon Ra at even money”

Amon-Ra St. Brown was injured early and did not score in the Lions' 31-24 Thanksgiving loss.

“you. Joe, Bengals Ravens, who do you like? Isaiah Likely. Anytime you're looking at touchdown props versus the Bengals, the conversation I think has to start with the opposing tight ends because the Bengals have allowed the most touchdowns to the position. A tight end has scored in five of their last six games. Normally that would lead to Mark Andrews. He's around plus 110, so they are aware of that fact. So I think we take the tight end too. Isaiah Likely, he has scored at least five touchdowns in each of the last two seasons through eight games been a little bit muddled coming back from injury Lamar missing some time he still running the third most routes on the team so I think this is a matchup where he gets his first touchdown of the year I gonna roll with my guy Mitchell Tinsley professional touchdown score That all he does is score touchdowns I still saw over 70 of the routes last week. Now Higgins did go down. So that might drop a little if Chase, you know, stays healthy and Yosev Ash is the number two, but where Tinsley is going to be used in the red zone. And we really saw Noah Fant take the biggest hit with Gusecki bumping up too. So it could be, you know, Tinsley Gusecki with the other guys in the red zone. So I think Tinsley is still underpriced yet again at plus 460. This guy is going to catch touchdowns. That's just what he does. Mike Gusecki, Isaiah Likely, Mitchell Tinsley, parlay those together 75-1.”

Mitchell Tinsley did not score in the Bengals' 32-14 Thanksgiving win; their only TDs were Hudson and Iosivas.

“And then for the Titans, got to go with Cam Ward at 10 to 1.”

Cam Ward went 24-of-38 for 141 yards with 0 TD and no rushing TD in the Titans' 25-3 loss to the Jaguars.

“I'm going to go Kenny Gainwell at plus 215.”

Kenny Gainwell did not score; the Steelers' only TD in the 26-7 loss was Jaylen Warren's 1-yard rush.

“i'm gonna go with pat bryant at uh plus a little over plus 400”

Pat Bryant did not score; Denver's only TDs in the 27-26 OT win were Harvey's two rushes and Nix's TD pass to Courtland Sutton.

“All right. Isaiah Hodgins for me. Five to one. This guy is essentially the Giants number two receiver. He's going to be featured in the red zone regardless.”

Isaiah Hodgins did not score a TD in the Patriots' 33-15 win over the Giants.

“here in this Detroit offense. All right, next up, we'll stay with the New York teams traveling, the Jets at the Baltimore Ravens. This is an interesting game. I'm going to go with Lamar Jackson at plus 200. I never bet Lamar Jackson touchdowns. I usually fade it on the season-long board when it's his rushing number because it's always like a touchdown or so too high, but my guy Stucka who's really plugged in with the Ravens was talking about how he thinks that they're just really frustrated with their red zone offense and and the production down there and he thinks that they're going to look to give Lamar more uh you know runs down there and that oh this year he only has one carry inside the five Derrick Henry has 14 and that's it no one else on the team has one period so you know they've kind of showed their hand with the Mark Andrews you know, whatever, whatever it is. So I think Lamar might catch, might catch the jet sweeping and be able to run one in. He could also scramble one in. He's been stopped at the one or two a couple of times on scrambles this year as well. So I like his touchdown.”

Lamar Jackson had no rushing or receiving TD in Baltimore's 23-10 win over the Jets (both Ravens TDs were Derrick Henry rushes).

“and for the jets going right back to Isaiah Williams, still 10 to one,”

Isaiah Williams handled returns only and scored no TD; the Jets' lone TD was a John Metchie reception in the 23-10 loss at Baltimore.

“So I'm probably still going to play it, but also showing a ton of value on Josh Downs at plus 350. And I think this is because of what Kerner was alluding to, you know, last week with Alec Pierce. He was undervalued. He was due. And now that he's scored, of course, you're going to price up Taylor, Tyler Warren, those guys, Pittman. So there's always going to be one guy. And in this week, it's Josh Downs. Now, he's been money in the red zone. His red zone snaps are trending up. It used to be more of the, you know, two tight end sets, but now he's getting about, you know, 70, 80 in all some of some games gotten all of them in the last few weeks. And he already has three touchdowns in close And that you know you don think of Josh Downs as that kind of player But he been really good just because there so much so many weapons on this Colts offense that he gets a lot of coverage that he can handle And he one of the better route runners in the league So like him And then on the Chiefs side Xavier Worthy at plus 250”

Josh Downs had no TD in the Colts' 23-20 OT loss at Kansas City.

“And he already has three touchdowns in close And that you know you don think of Josh Downs as that kind of player But he been really good just because there so much so many weapons on this Colts offense that he gets a lot of coverage that he can handle And he one of the better route runners in the league So like him And then on the Chiefs side Xavier Worthy at plus 250 the injury scare, depresses odds a little bit, but he's more of a plus 200-ish guy. If he goes, he's been a little bit unlucky when it comes to touchdowns, and he's still capable of”

Xavier Worthy had 4 catches for 59 yds and no TD in the Chiefs' 23-20 OT win over Indianapolis.

• AJ Barner anytime TD
• DeVonta Smith anytime TD
• Mitchell Tinsley anytime TD

“So give me AJ Barner, plus 250. Yeah, I love that he can tap into those rushing touchdowns against the Titans because they do give up a ton. All right, Jill, who are you rolling with? Week 12, anytime touchdown. Yeah, Devontae Smith, I think he's going to score a touchdown on this Cowboys secondary. I don't think that they've improved enough, and I think the Eagles passing game will actually get a little bit of a boost playing against the Cowboys secondary and actually have some good completions downfield. So I think Devontae Smith at plus 180, that's who I like in this spot. I'm going to roll with professional touchdown score, Mitchell Tinsley at four to one. If you haven seen him score touchdowns look them up As you mentioned Jill a bunch of highlight reel kind of touchdown catches already in his young career Had one earlier in the year Also had a couple in the preseason against the Commanders I believe it was So love him in this spot Has upside to just be a one-for-one chase replacement. But either way, should be that number three receiver and an option in the red zone. You parlay Tinsley, Smith, Barner together on DraftKings, and you get 46-1 odds.”

Tinsley scored, but Barner (2 rec, 18 yds) and DeVonta Smith (89 yds) both went scoreless - all three legs were needed. (Tinsley TD; Barner 2 rec/18 yds no TD; Smith 89 yds no TD)

“And then I'm going to go with Davis Allen officially plus 370. Among the team leaders, right with Parkinson, you know, and Devontae Adams in red zone snaps on the season last four games especially um you know he's really come on he's caught three touchdowns already in the red zone kind of goes under the radar a little bit but i like the tight ends in this spot”

Davis Allen did not score; Stafford's three TD passes went to Davante Adams (x2) and Colby Parkinson in the Rams' 34-7 win.

“I'm going with the New Orleans Saints minus one and a half against the Atlanta Falcons.”

NO 10, ATL 24 — New Orleans Saints margin -14 vs line -1.5; busts.

“I going with the Tampa Bay buccaneers plus seven plus six and a half don matter for the contest”

LAR 34, TB 7 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers margin -27 vs line +7; busts.

“All right, next up, we got the Cincinnati Bengals going to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers. On the Steelers side, I'm not even going to get fancy here. I'm going to go with Jalen Warren at minus 160. Still have a little bit of value here on this. This is my guy Stucky's favorite. Anytime touchdown from the Action Network pod as well. He's been on a tear. And I totally agree with him here.”

Jaylen Warren did not score a rushing or receiving TD in the Steelers' 34-12 win over the Bengals.

“And I totally agree with him here. Jalen Warren, they're trying to get him more work. He's already been handling about 80% of the backfield carries over the past month. And Tomlin says, hey, we got to get him more work. And this Cincinnati defense, I know they're coming off a bye, but no Hendrickson. And they've given up the most fantasy points to running backs by a good, you know, what, three, four points, nine touchdowns on the ground to opposing backs, four more through the air. So I think Warren could get in the end zone either way here. He is going to be active in the receiving game as well. We know Rodgers likes to dump off those short passes. And then on the Bengals side, I'm going with their running back as well, Chase Brown at plus 135. There's a chance Chase Brown's odds should be just as high as Jalen Warren's because”

Chase Brown ran 18 times for 99 yards but did not score a TD in the Bengals' 34-12 loss to the Steelers.

“I'm going to roll with Josh Jacobs, [16:07] two or more touchdowns at plus 230.”

Josh Jacobs scored 0 TDs (7 carries, 40 yards) in the Packers' 27-20 win over the Giants, missing the 2+ TD prop.

“both teams uh that been that we seen all year yet so this this should be a really competitive game too so i think myers snaps bump up and uh a monster Seahawks Rams I going to go with two revenge touchdown plays that I think are undervalued for the Seahawks I didn't think I'd get here this year, but let's go with Cooper Cup at four to one. You know, if they're ever going to try to scheme a guy, a touchdown and dis offense, I mean, it can get cute at times because it's been so monstrous. It's Cooper Cup. So you might see something weird around the goal line and maybe an end around, you know, just a little one of those like one hit, one step slant type of deals. I think his only touchdown this year was like a three yarder. So like Cooper Cup at four to one, you know, Horton still a little banged up and, you know,”

Cooper Kupp did not score a TD in the Seahawks' 21-19 loss to the Rams (Seattle's TD was Kenneth Walker III rushing).

“Yeah. Speaking of, you know, another the Broncos are hosting the Chiefs. And they've looked really shaky. Ended up, our guy Troy Franklin ended up hitting for us, I think, on the show last week on Thursday. And that was just it after he scored. So this Broncos team, a little bit shaky here. I'm going to go with their running back, RJ Harvey, at plus 121. Kind of the truck, but there is some uncertainty exactly how much he's going to play, how much of the workload for Dobbins he's going to assume. But I want to get a guy like Harvey in this spot because the Chiefs have just given up really nothing, you know uh to to receivers and tight ends compared to running backs i mean they're most of their touchdowns this year have come against running backs you know they're going to play a lot”

RJ Harvey did not score a rushing or receiving TD in the Broncos' 22-19 Week 11 win over the Chiefs (11 carries, 30 yards).

“Brock Bowers right now at even odds at DraftKings. [47:05] I'm going to add him at this point.”

Brock Bowers did not score in the Raiders' 33-16 Week 11 MNF loss to Dallas (only Raiders TD was Tre Tucker).

“I'm going with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus five and a half at the Buffalo Bills.”

BUF 44, TB 32 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers margin -12 vs line +5.5; busts.

“I'm going with the Cardinals plus 136.”

ARI 22, SF 41 — Arizona Cardinals lost; moneyline busts.

“So I want some Wilson in this spot at plus 240. I think that's kind of insane, given that the Browns are going to play man coverage. They are going to play some single high So listen it should still get opportunities singled up even though it quality coverage against this Browns team And they have been exploitable through the air at times You know 10 receiving touchdowns to opposing wideouts that is tied for the sixth most in the NFL. And you wouldn't think that because the Browns have generally played good defense, but, you know, it's just their kind of scheme. It's man-heavy. They'll take some risks. So like Wilson to return and score and like Tillman to return and score.”

Garrett Wilson left with a knee injury in Q3 and did not score vs the Browns.

“guys that's undervalued in the market uh I'm gonna go with DK Metcalf on DK always love to roll with him uh Kerner you had a good call I think last week on him just being uh not kind of a guy that we want to be high on well this week you know going up against the Chargers they play the second most zone coverage in the league behind the Las Vegas Raiders. And DK Metcalf has been far and away the Steelers best receiver against zone. Usually you don't see that with wide receivers as much, only, you know, the really good ones. And I think Rodgers indoors against a zone heavy defense, he's going to be able to target his number one receiver. And Metcalf, one of the few guys in the league that can run away from zone coverage. Like it's, you know, it's, it's just not many guys can do that. He can, we've seen it a couple of times already this year. so uh rolling with dk on dk plus 160”

DK Metcalf did not score in the Steelers' 25-10 loss to the Chargers (Pittsburgh's only TD was Roman Wilson).

“I'm going with the Washington Commanders plus eight and a half at home against the Detroit Lions.”

WSH 22, DET 44 — Washington Commanders margin -22 vs line +8.5; busts.

“I'm going with the Arizona Cardinals plus six and a half at the Seattle Seahawks.”

SEA 44, ARI 22 — Arizona Cardinals margin -22 vs line +6.5; busts.

“I am rolling with San Francisco 49ers plus four and a half at home against the Rams.”

SF 26, LAR 42 — San Francisco 49ers margin -16 vs line +4.5; busts.

“I'm going with the Baltimore Ravens first half minus 2.5.”

MIN 10, BAL 9 (halftime) — Ravens trailed 9-10 at halftime vs Vikings (margin -1); first-half -2.5 spread does not cover.

“I'm going to roll with the Pittsburgh Steelers here at plus 140.”

LAC 25, PIT 10 — Pittsburgh Steelers lost; moneyline busts.

“uh, love it. All right. I got Falcons Patriots for the Patriots. Got to roll with my guy, Mac Hollins, if you heard me on the Fantasy Flex earlier in the week, I had the carpet cleaners over, so I had to do some pods barefoot. And so in honor of that, I'm going to roll with Mac Hollins.”

Mack Hollins had 2 catches for 9 yards and no TD in the Patriots' 24-23 win over Atlanta.

“and then on the Atlanta Falcons, rolling with Kyle Pitts, you know, he's a guy that I think against the Patriots, they have been pretty good against tight ends, but Kyle Pitts isn't a normal tight end, you know, he can beat coverage. And the Falcon team, I mean, the receivers seem banged up consistently uh drake london probably be back but i saw him and uh donald mooney on the injury report they released their number three ray ray mcleod so they just got cardio kings out there at that spot so i think it sets up really well for the backs and tight ends in this game to roll kyle pitts at plus 260”

Kyle Pitts had 4 catches for 38 yards and no TD vs the Patriots; Drake London scored all 3 Falcons receiving TDs.

“For the Packers, got to roll with my guy, John Fitzpatrick, 13-1. He's a guy who has been getting more and more playing time as that number two tight end. Seems like he's surpassed Luke Musgrave, which is interesting. It's kind of been coming on slowly, and just his playing time has been increasing. And then they released or waived, I should say, Ben Sims, who sometimes was active, at least last year, as the number three tight end over Fitzpatrick. So I think this is all just a very good sign for Fitzpatrick. And he's a guy who's going to be used a ton in the red zone when he does get used.”

John FitzPatrick did not score in the Panthers' 16-13 win at Green Bay; only Rico Dowdle (2) and Josh Jacobs scored TDs.

“And then on the Panther side, Tett McMillan, plus 220. He's a guy who you would expect to have more touchdowns than he does. He's been very consistent yardage-wise, but struggled to get in the end zone. And that's obviously, you know, a direct indictment on the Panthers quarterbacks.”

Tetairoa McMillan had 4 catches for 46 yards and no TD in the Panthers' 16-13 win at Green Bay.

“for the Broncos rolling with Pat Bryant, [22:41] the rookie at plus 450.”

Pat Bryant had 2 catches for 20 yards and no TD in the Broncos' 18-15 win at Houston; Harvey and Sutton scored.

“And then for the Texans, I'm going to go with Nico Collins at plus 155. He has the advantage of not having to deal with Pat Sertan, who is doubtful for this game, likely is going to miss some time. And if you look back at Nico, you know, ever since CJ Stroud was drafted, he's been a better than, you know, he scored a touchdown in more than half his games, you know, this year. Or at least half his games, I should say.”

Nico Collins had 7 catches for 75 yards and no TD in the Texans' 18-15 loss to Denver.

“Yeah. Terry McCorn's out. He's he's been ruled out. So, yeah, that's it's going to be Robbie chosen is probably the fifth receiver. But I'm not going to go with him. I'm going to go with Chris Moore, who just always seems to be a thorn in the side of whoever else is on the commanders in terms of playing time. And, you know, he's usually Terry's direct backup. So I'm hoping that we could potentially get like an 80, 90 percent kind of routes run game for Chris Moore. We don't. Sometimes we see all the backups around, you know, 50, 60 percent. Jalen Lane included in that McCaffrey as well. But either way, I think Chris Moore is way too cheap in the touchdown market here at plus 550.”

Chris Moore did not record a TD in the Commanders' 38-14 loss to Seattle.

“go with bam knight at plus 145 now he has taken over as the lead back”

Bam Knight had 27 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards with no TD in the Cardinals' 27-17 win at Dallas.

“i'm going raiders jaguars under 45 and a half”

LV 29, JAX 30 — Combined 59; under 45.5 busts.

“Cleveland with eight touchdowns allowed to wide receivers tied for eighth most in the league, just seven combined to running backs and tight ends. And then for the Browns, we'll kind of go a little bit off the board here with Jamari Thrash at 15 to 1. It's a guy I used to like as a rookie kind of fell off the map for a little bit. But Isaiah Bond is playing so poorly that. Thrash has seen an uptick in snaps and in the red zone. He's playing snaps as well and taking some away from Bond as that number two receiver. And, you know, against the Patriots, it's tougher to run on them. And so I do think if Cleveland does get in the end zone, which is a question mark, they'll have to do it through the air.”

Jamari Thrash had a 31-yard reverse but did not score in the Browns' 32-13 loss to New England.

“I'm going to go with Dawson Knox at plus 350. Carolina gives up the fourth most yardage and tied for the fourth most touchdown receptions per game to tight ends. And Dawson Knox already was seeing some red zone snaps at the expense of Dalton Kincaid before Kincaid's injury.”

Dawson Knox had a 15-yard catch but did not score in the Bills' 40-9 win over Carolina.

“market. And then for the Panthers, got to go with Xavier Leggett at plus 450. I think he's just way underpriced in the market. I know he's caught touchdowns and I think both games since returning, but still underpriced, tied for the most red zone route and target since he returned. And, you know, the coverage is still going to kind of go towards McMillan first. And that, I think, really helps Leggett in this Panther offense. And with the Bills, you know, they're going to play A lot of zone Leggett is second on the team in targets against zone coverage as well. So a lot of good things for Leggett here. I just think he's way underpriced in the market at plus 450. He's down to plus 330, 300 somewhere. And I still think he's underpriced there. So a wide range of prices for him, but I like him to get in the end zone.”

Xavier Legette did not score in the Panthers' 40-9 loss to Buffalo; Carolina's only TD was a Chuba Hubbard rush.

“And for the Titans, a guy who scored last week for them, Shimray DK, I like him to get back in the end zone. He's plus 475.”

Chimere Dike had 7 catches for 93 yards plus a 67-yard punt-return TD (return TDs do not count) — no rushing/receiving TD — in the Titans' 38-14 loss to Indianapolis.

“But I'm going to go with Brashard Smith here. And the reason being, because the commanders do play a lot of man coverage, Brashard Smith is actually a running back that they trust to beat man. So he can get an explosive score here. But he also been playing more in the red zone just as you know one of the three running backs in the rotation now And we saw Kareem Hunt not play all of the you know goal line red zone snaps last week I know he got hobbled early in the game but he did come back in So still I think it a good sign for Smith that he just kind of getting more action here And with the spread going up it increases the likelihood of a blowout And if you have the you know kind of garbage time crew in, Rashard Smith also is a part of that crew. So like him at plus 235 with all the Chiefs kind of bucketed together in that same odd zone. But, you know, there are a bunch of options, I think, on the Chiefs, but Rashard Smith is my favorite.”

Brashard Smith did not score in the Chiefs' 28-7 Week 8 MNF win over the Commanders (TDs went to Hunt x2, Kelce, Rice).

“I'm going to roll with Niners-Texans over 41.5.”

HOU 26, SF 15 — Combined 41; over 41.5 busts.

“For the Jacksonville Jaguars, I got to roll with Hunter Long, plus 450. He is their main red zone tight end, and he's been their main red zone tight end. and out with Brenton Strange out. That has continued. You see a lot more Johnny Munt between the 20s, but this is also a revenge game for Hunter Long, so like him at plus 450.”

Hunter Long did not score a TD in Jacksonville's 35-7 loss to the Rams at Wembley; the Jaguars' only TD was Travis Hunter.

“And for the Rams, Jordan Whittington plus 325. He has been that number three receiver in the red zone all year. Now you're looking at Puka Nakua likely not in the lineup, so it's just going to be Devontae Adams. Maybe they go with more two tight end sets as well, but either way, I think Whittington should have a role in the red zone. So like him at plus 325.”

Jordan Whittington had 2 catches for 9 yards and no TD in the Rams' 35-7 win; Rams receiving TDs went to Adams (3), Ferguson and Davis Allen.

“Chicago, I got to go back to Roma Dunze here, plus 112.”

Rome Odunze had 2 catches for 31 yards and no TD in the Bears' 26-14 win over New Orleans.

“and for the Saints, Rashid Shahid at plus 275.”

Rashid Shaheed had 4 catches for 40 yards and no TD in the Saints' 26-14 loss; Saints TDs were both Chris Olave.

“I'm just going to go with Iwik Iwemenoor for the Titans at plus 250.”

Elic Ayomanor had 2 catches for 29 yards and no TD in Tennessee's 31-13 loss to New England; Titans' only TD was Chimere Dike.

“practiced. I'm going to go with George Pickens here. I think, you know, standalone, if everyone's out again, he's their most likely touchdown catcher. And if guys come back, it just takes more coverage off of him and allows him to get in more single coverage. And that's really, you know, Washington has been more of a man coverage team this year. They haven't been a great defense, but they played their man coverage at times. And I think Pickens can take advantage of that.”

George Pickens had 4 catches for 82 yards but no TD in the Cowboys' 44-22 win over the Commanders.

“now scored last week so i'm gonna go back to him here around plus 205 all right i'm rolling with mason taylor joe you mentioned him earlier of the jets i think he's a top target for them So we got three tight ends for our Anytime Touchdown Parlay for Sunday presented by DraftKings.”

Mason Taylor had 3 catches for 31 yards but no TD in the Jets' 13-6 loss to the Panthers.

“And I'm going to go with Rashad White at minus 115.”

Rachaad White did not score in the Bucs' 24-9 loss; Tampa Bay's only TD was Tez Johnson's reception.

“as well and uh so Kerner is going with the tight end too I'm gonna go with Barner here at plus 400”

AJ Barner did not score in the Seahawks' 27-19 win; Seattle TDs were Charbonnet (2 rush) and Smith-Njigba.

“Give me the Vikings plus one and a half at home”

MIN 22, PHI 28 — Minnesota Vikings margin -6 vs line +1.5; busts.

“I'm going to roll with the New Orleans Saints plus five and a half still out there against the Chicago Bears,”

CHI 26, NO 14 — New Orleans Saints margin -12 vs line +5.5; busts.

“I'm going with the Los Angeles Chargers minus one and a half at home against the Indianapolis Colts.”

LAC 24, IND 38 — Los Angeles Chargers margin -14 vs line -1.5; busts.

“I like the spot for the Jaguars going money line plus 136”

JAX 7, LAR 35 — Jacksonville Jaguars lost; moneyline busts.

“I'm going to go with a guy who started a little slower, but I think he's going to have to kind of be what Fannin is to Cleveland in his offense at least for this week. And that's Mason Taylor. should be around plus 240 odds to score a touchdown. If you don't know who it is, it's the rookie tight end for the New York Jets. And, yes, we're taking a jet to score a touchdown.”

Mason Taylor had 3 catches for 31 yards and no TD in the Jets' 13-6 loss to Carolina.

“Cowboys at the Carolina Panthers and got to go with Ryan Flannoy for the Cowboys. I know there's still some uncertainty is what his role is going to be. I expect CeeDee Lamb and Kamonte Turpin to be held out or severely limited for this week. That's what they've kind of been talking up. So I think Flannoy now kind of put himself in a position where he may even jump Jalen Tolbert for snaps. I mean, he was just so good, had over 100 yards in the first half alone. Tolbert was still taking certain situational snaps over Flannoy like red zone. but you know he's run I think 24 routes and zero catches on three targets in the red zone for Tolbert this year he's been good in the past there but I wouldn't be surprised if you see things kind of flip here so I just want to get ahead of this and you're also getting potentially a rush attempt or two which is always helpful in these touchdown markets because a lot of times those are designed to kind of spring a guy into the end zone so like Flannoy on the Cowboys side. And then for the Panthers, similarly murky, but with this guy, I think if he does, if he's for some reason, not, not going to be one of the top five wide receivers, which I've kind of played with this in my head, I think he's probably just going to be a healthy scratch. And that's Jimmy Horn Jr. But he's eight to one. And I want to get ahead of this because I think there's a possibility that even if Jalen Cobra is activated and comes back, that they could potentially cut a guy like Renfro or deactivate him because we saw them cut him early to start the year. And they said they want to give Horn a bigger role now after his play last week He one of the few guys on that team with speed They were giving him rush attempts So another guy that I expect to be active is the fifth receiver getting about 25 30 of the dropbacks just kind of like a Bryson Tremaine type and some gadget looks So Leighhorn at 8-1 and Flannoy at 3-1.”

Ryan Flournoy scored no TD (3 catches, 30 yards; 1 carry) in the Cowboys' 30-27 Week 6 loss at Carolina.

“And that's Jimmy Horn Jr. But he's eight to one. And I want to get ahead of this because I think there's a possibility that even if Jalen Cobra is activated and comes back,”

Jimmy Horn Jr. had 2 catches for 36 yards but no TD in the Panthers' 30-27 win over Dallas.

“So I'm going to go with Darnell Washington here at nine to one. [19:11] And I have to, we all have to, you know why?”

Darnell Washington did not score; Steelers TDs in the 23-9 win went to Connor Heyward and DK Metcalf.

“Patriots at saints. and I'm going right back to this guy because he just disappeared last week. I don't know where he was, but I wanted him to score a touchdown. I don't think he got a target. He was like a cardio king and that was Austin Hooper. I'm going back to him at plus 750. Underlying metrics in terms of the usage, still exactly where we want him to be.”

Austin Hooper did not score; Patriots TDs in the 25-19 win went to DeMario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte (x2).

“Devon Vele at 17 to 1 That too high Because last week we started to see them you know cut down on brandon cook playing time and i did expect that to eventually happen especially with you know kamara kind of getting the same treatment those guys just don't really fit on the team if they're you know going to be a one and four spencer rattler team that so i think veille continues to kind of trend up remember this is the guy that they traded for uh and he was already taking the The few snaps that he was taking away from Cooks tended to happen in the red zone. So I would not be surprised if Vele was able to get into the end zone here. And this Patriot offense, it's proven to be good enough to kind of push the issue here. And it is an indoor game. So I like Vele. I know the first guy I went to look at was Taysom Hill. And he was probably triple what his odds should have been. He was plus 200 or something. I'm like, what? Yeah. He played like seven snaps. Oh, man. So I wanted to take Taysom, but the value is on Devon Vele, which is a lot less fun unless he hits. And that's why we do it. So 17-1 for Vele, 7.5-1 for Hooper.”

Devaughn Vele did not score in the Saints' 25-19 loss; New Orleans' only TD was Taysom Hill's 1-yard run.

“so going with Allen uh minus 125”

Josh Allen threw two TD passes but did not score a rushing or receiving TD in the 24-14 loss to Atlanta (passing TDs do not count).

“So let me go with Krosky Merritt here because, you know, he's even money.”

Jacory Croskey-Merritt did not score a TD in the Bears-Commanders game (Chicago won 25-24); Washington TDs were all Daniels passing scores.

“I going with the Baltimore Ravens Up Plus seven and a half at home against the Rams”

BAL 3, LAR 17 — Baltimore Ravens margin -14 vs line +7.5; busts.

“give you the Chargers-Dolphins under 44-and-a-half at DraftKings.”

MIA 27, LAC 29 — Combined 56; under 44.5 busts.

• Saints ML closed +152 · CLV +8¢ lost
• 49ers ML (+136) closed +154 · CLV -18¢ lost

“for this one five to one saints and niners by the way before we get to our anytime touchdown”

Parlay busts: Saints ML — lost; 49ers ML (+136) — lost.

“I bet. I like that, Joe, because you kind of you kind of teed up my anytime touchdown selection for this game with those little nuggets there. Because, yeah, I'm going to Rams wide receiver. It's not Devontae Adams. It's not Puka Nakua. It's not even my favorite Rams receiver, Tutu Atwell. who scored on a long play last week. It's Jordan Whittington at plus 550.”

Jordan Whittington had 2 catches for 33 yards and no TD in the Rams' 26-23 OT loss to the 49ers.

“So like Taylor, and then shout to our guy, Nick Giffen, the doctor, got to go with Trey Tucker on the Raiders side. This is another interesting one because I have Tuck He at plus 275”

Tre Tucker scored no TD as the Raiders failed to reach the end zone in their 40-6 loss to the Colts.

“for the lions go rolling with Amon Ross eight Brown here. The Bengals have been playing a lot of single high in this, in this, you know, this new season with their new coordinator, Al golden. And Amon Ross has all four of the lions receiving touchdowns to get single high. Now you would think it would be JMO more. uh amanra's doubled him up in first reads in in against single high and uh you know caught all the touchdowns and so it seems like even when you know defenses are playing single high they're they're kind of rotating coverage to jamo uh on those deeper routes and it's leaving amanra and with opportunities underneath so uh that's kind of how you have to play it with this lions offense at this point because jamo will run away from you so don't hate him either but just based on my projections amon rot minus 105 i have him at uh like over a 50 percent uh touchdown uh odds for this game touchdown probability so i like him around right there around even money so i'm gonna roll with him uh don't hate jmo either but officially rolling with amon ross st brown”

Amon-Ra St. Brown had 8 catches for 100 yards but no TD in the Lions' 37-24 win over the Bengals.

“I'm going Travis Hunter at plus two 75.”

Travis Hunter had 3 catches for 64 yards but scored no TD in Jacksonville's 31-28 MNF win over Kansas City.

“I'm going with the Cincinnati Bengals plus ten and a half. [14:53] This is as ugly as it gets This is your buy low sell high spot of the week in my opinion”

CIN 24, DET 37 — Cincinnati Bengals margin -13 vs line +10.5; busts.

“I'm going with the Las Vegas Raiders plus seven at the Indianapolis Colts.”

IND 40, LV 6 — Las Vegas Raiders margin -34 vs line +7; busts.

“all right for my second pick and the fourth overall of the week five Sunday six pack I'm going with the New York football Jets what's our best out there two and a half doesn't matter for the contest but it should be two and a half yeah plus two and a half against the Cowboys”

NYJ 22, DAL 37 — New York Jets margin -15 vs line +2.5; busts.

“so I'm gonna take this under 36 and a half”

CLE 17, MIN 21 — Combined 38; under 36.5 busts.

“So, yeah, give me the Jets at plus 120.”

NYJ 22, DAL 37 — New York Jets lost; moneyline busts.

“So give me Judkins at plus 155. [1:03:41] Parlay those together at DraftKings.”

Quinshon Judkins ran for 110 yards but scored no TD in the Browns' 21-17 loss to the Vikings in London.

“I going to go with Torrey Horton another rookie in this one He 4 He already has touchdowns in back games Joe I think I kind of said it in jest maybe two episodes ago that Horton was a guy to bet on. But he's been coming through, and I like him because he's getting snaps in the red zone. And he's played just as many pass-game snaps as Cooper Cup in the last game. Now, it was a blot against the Saints, but he was in there as a starter right along with Cup. So, you know, there's a chance eventually Horton is the guy who overtakes Cup in two wide sets. But either way, in this spot against Arizona, they play a lot of, you know, coverage in the red zone. So I think a guy like Horton who could beat coverage is important because JSN is always going to be, you know, that top target. And if you make it check, if you make them check it down, there's no guarantee that they get in. So I want a guy like Horton that's probably still going to get a one on one young enough in his rookie season. So I'll go with him at four to one.”

Tory Horton did not score in Seattle's 23-20 TNF win; the Seahawks' TDs went to Zach Charbonnet (rush) and A.J. Barner (rec).

“In Dublin, Ireland, we got the Vikings against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Vikings, I like Justin Jefferson to score here at plus 160.”

Justin Jefferson had 10 catches for 126 yards but no touchdown in Minnesota's 24-21 loss to Pittsburgh in Dublin.

“And then on the other side, going with Jonu Smith at plus 375. He's the guy who, out of the two tight ends, you know, Frymuth and Smith, They seem to be splitting snaps, but I think you'll see Gino, excuse me, Janu get ahead of Prime more often than not. We saw that last game when Pittsburgh's in certain game scripts, where they have to throw more, which I think will be in this spot. I think Jonu is going to be the guy because he's a slot receiver. We've seen him in the red zone getting snaps there too. So like Jonu Smith at plus 375, I think he should be closer to about 3-1 here.”

Steelers TDs in the 24-21 Dublin win went to Kenneth Gainwell (x2) and DK Metcalf; Jonnu Smith did not score.

“And on the other side, A.J. Brown at plus 190. We know he was kind of this squeaky wheel a little bit, ended up getting his first touchdown in week number three. And in this spot, the Bucs are just so good against a run, you know, with Vita Veya in the middle. And that also could extend to the tush push. You know, it might be a little harder against the Bucs than most teams. So I think the next option there for the Eagles is going to be A.J. Brown because it would be hard for Barkley. It would be hard for Hurts. A.J. Brown's kind of a big physical guy. And we've seen that against the Bucs. You know, Lazard scored on them. Nico Collins scored on them.”

A.J. Brown did not score; the Eagles' TDs in the 31-25 win went to Dallas Goedert (x2) and Sydney Brown (blocked-punt return).

“Texans Titans I'm going with Shimmery DK at 7-1 I think Kerner was on this last week should have”

Chimere Dike could not score as Tennessee was shut out 26-0 by Houston.

“on the texan side i gotta go with nico collins uh because we hear sneed chirping so you know that the Texans if they even sniff the end zone are going to try to uh to get Collins in there but Collins has really been their most consistent guy it's not really working out with any of these ancillary options um you know thought about Woody Marks but he's starting to get priced up people are starting to take note of him his snap count going up uh whereas when you look at the Titans uh defensively like they've been they've been uh they've been exploitable I think by wide receivers. Sutton got one on him in week one. Devontae Adams got one on him in week two, and then Pittman. So you had all the kind of number one or X receiver types go and score on Tennessee through three weeks. I think Nico Collins continues the trend. So going with him at plus 120”

Nico Collins had 4 catches for 79 yards but no touchdown in Houston's 26-0 win over Tennessee in Week 4.

“I'm going to go with Luther Bird in here at plus 550.”

Luther Burden III did not score; Chicago's TDs were Rome Odunze (27-yd catch) and D'Andre Swift (2-yd run) in the 25-24 win.

“I'll go with Matthew Golden here, the rookie at plus 230. And if we look at this Cowboys defense, they are playing a lot of zone. And they're not blitzing much. So you would think that they would be more susceptible to kind of underneath stuff. But we've seen guys like Wondell Robinson just run straight through their defense. Luther Burden run straight through their defense. Jahan Dotson ran straight through their defense, came up a little bit short of a score, but caught a long bomb as well. So I think this is a good spot for Golden, who's just playing more and more snaps as these Packers receivers keep getting hurt. And he was in on most of the red zone stuff. He's only Packer to get multiple red zone routes, one of three along with Jacobs and Kraft last week. So they're giving Golden the work down in there in close,”

Matthew Golden had a 46-yard catch but no touchdown in the Packers' 40-40 tie at Dallas.

“And on this one, I want to go with T. Higgins for the Bengals. You know, Sean, I think we talked about on the flex. I think he's just going to be a little bit undervalued in the market, you know, coming off the bad game. And, you know, the backup quarterback had a bad game. but he's still one of the better backup quarterbacks in terms of getting the ball out to the receivers. And, you know, this could be a spot where Jamar chase gets extra attention or that you have to look away from him because of, because of Sertan and the coverage on the other side. So I think T Higgins could be a trailing game script could just be a Sertan issue, but either way, I think he's a good bet to score here. So like him at plus one 90”

Tee Higgins had 3 catches for 32 yards and no TD in Cincinnati's 28-3 loss at Denver.

• Jaguars ML closed +150 · CLV +5¢ won
• Buccaneers ML closed +154 · CLV +6¢ lost

“Jags plus 155 at DK and the Bucs at plus 160 So you got these two South Florida teams Parlayed you get plus 560 That a nice one there Let close it out with our anytime touchdown”

Parlay busts: Jaguars ML — won; Buccaneers ML — lost.

• KaVontae Turpin anytime TD
• Matthew Golden anytime TD

“but officially we'll go with Turpin at plus three 60 golden plus two 10. And that already gives you a plus 13 25.”

Packers-Cowboys ended 40-40 in OT. Neither KaVontae Turpin (3 catches, 30 yds, 0 TD) nor Matthew Golden (5 catches, 58 yds, 0 TD) scored a touchdown — both anytime-TD legs missed. (Turpin: 3 rec, 30 yds, 0 TD. Golden: 5 rec, 58 yds, 0 TD.)

“Number one for the Dolphins, I like Tanner Connor.”

Tanner Conner did not score (1 rec, 13 yds) in Miami's 31-21 TNF loss at Buffalo.

“I'm going with Travis Hunter to start off at plus 250.”

Travis Hunter (1 rec, 21 yds) did not score in Jacksonville's 17-10 Week 3 win over Houston (TDs by Etienne and Tuten).

“So give me Woody Marks at plus 550 on a fan.”

Woody Marks (6 rush, 27 yds) did not score in Houston's 17-10 Week 3 loss at Jacksonville (Houston's only TD was Nico Collins).

“so i want to go austin hooper and the reason [23:57] is he's just kind of forgotten about”

Austin Hooper (2 rec, 28 yds) did not score in New England's 21-14 Week 3 loss to Pittsburgh.

“but I going to go Bucky Irving because I actually have him projected higher than plus 120 And you know it rare that you get a true like edge in value on your projections in the touchdown market because they're usually inflated a little bit more than a regular prop. So got to go Bucky here.”

Bucky Irving did not score in Tampa Bay's 29-27 Week 3 win over the Jets; Mike Evans had the Bucs' only offensive TD.

“got in uh so that and they got some points on the board so love it uh i'm gonna go with i was gonna go kareem hunt uh but i already went with him on uh the action pod i do think he's gonna get more of the short yards work than pacheco but i'm gonna go with patrick mahomes at plus 360 because Because Mahomes himself has said, they need my scrambling. And they're still 0-2. So they still need it.”

Patrick Mahomes threw a TD to Tyquan Thornton but did not rush/receive a TD in the 22-9 Week 3 win over the Giants.

“for my first pick of the week three sunday six-pack in the first overall i'm gonna roll the youth to texans here uh at the jaguars there's a two and a half available uh at fan duel”

JAX 17, HOU 10 — Houston Texans margin -7 vs line +2.5; busts.

“I'm going to roll with the Tennessee Titans [15:39] plus four-and-a-half home dogs against the Indianapolis Colts.”

TEN 20, IND 41 — Tennessee Titans margin -21 vs line +4.5; busts.

“but I like the Cincinnati Bengals with Browning on the road. Who would know against the Vikings? Two things. Number one, Browning. Yeah, three picks last week. That's what backup quarterbacks do. Guess what? The Vikings have one, too. Carson Wentz. But Browning, what he can do, and this is why I like Panics, even though they didn't really need it last week. But Browning played well against the Blitz in his career. And that is the key. Did it once against Flores. Right, yeah. They actually won a 27-24 game against Flores. It was Nick Moles, but I mean, Wentz could be worse than Nick Moles. I'll get to that in a second, but I'm getting three points here with the Bengals who still managed to put up”

MIN 48, CIN 10 — Cincinnati Bengals margin -38 vs line +3; busts.

“Give me the Rams plus three and a half.”

PHI 33, LAR 26 — Los Angeles Rams margin -7 vs line +3.5; busts.

“I'm going to go with the Rams. I already talked about it. I think this is a very well put together, high-quality football team. Have a Super Bowl ticket on them as well, so give me the Rams. The Patriots is a small home dog. Would have been my other luck. But what does ours pay out? Rams are about plus 162.”

PHI 33, LAR 26 — Los Angeles Rams lost; moneyline busts.

• Bears ML closed +103.5 · CLV -211¢ won
• Rams ML closed +170 · CLV -8¢ lost

“The Cowboys is a road favorite here. So, yeah, give me the Bears. I'm going to go with the Rams. I already talked about it. I think this is a very well put together, high-quality football team. Have a Super Bowl ticket on them as well, so give me the Rams. The Patriots is a small home dog. Would have been my other luck. But what does ours pay out? Rams are about plus 162. Bears are essentially even money. So we'll go minus 108 is actually the best I'm seeing. And that gives you a plus 405.”

Parlay busts: Bears ML — won; Rams ML — lost.

“give me some gunner helm rookie tight end for the titans going up against the coach i expect the titans to cover in this spot love helm getting all the red zone snaps so yeah i'm sure he'll be like seven to one or more but they only have odds for four guys we'll tweet out i'll tweet out a playbook for that that slip the helm hunt slip over the weekend when the odds are out so gunner Helm and Kareem Hunt.”

Gunnar Helm did not score in Tennessee's 41-20 Week 3 loss to the Colts (his first career TD came in Week 8).

“I'm going to go with Lameday Zaccheaus at 4-1.”

Olamide Zaccheaus did not score a TD in the Lions' 52-21 win over the Bears.

“Isaac Teslaw for the Detroit Lions at plus 495.”

Isaac TeSlaa did not score a TD in the Lions' 52-21 win over the Bears.

“So I love me some Gunnar Helm at 13-1.”

Gunnar Helm did not score in the Titans' 33-19 loss to the Rams.

“A.J. Brown, squeaky wheel, plus 180.”

A.J. Brown did not score; Eagles TDs in the 20-17 win came from Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts.

“So, yeah, Kareem Hunt, I think, is undervalued for an anytime touchdown at plus 270.”

Kareem Hunt did not score; Chiefs TDs in the 20-17 loss came from Tyquan Thornton and Patrick Mahomes.

“Naylor at plus 425, you get a plus 10,000.”

Jalen Nailor did not score in the Vikings' 22-6 SNF loss to Atlanta (only TD was Allgeier).

“give me higgins at plus 360”

Jaden Higgins did not score in the Texans' 20-19 MNF loss to Tampa Bay.

“I got to go to Ashton. [40:44] Gentry, minus 120.”

Ashton Jeanty did not score; the Raiders managed only field goals in the 20-9 MNF loss to the Chargers.

“So, yeah, give me the Titans plus 5.5.”

TEN 19, LAR 33 — Tennessee Titans margin -14 vs line +5.5; busts.

“I'm going with the Kansas City Chiefs plus one and a half against the Philadelphia Eagles.”

KC 17, PHI 20 — Kansas City Chiefs margin -3 vs line +1.5; busts.

“And I believe if he gets one on defense, that still counts, right? That still counts at any time because it's not a passing touchdown. So that doesn't actually hurt us at all. So like Travis Hunter here, plus 225.”

Travis Hunter did not score in the Jaguars' 27-31 loss to Cincinnati; Jacksonville TDs went to Dyami Brown, Bhayshul Tuten and Travis Etienne.

“with a bang. Chargers, Darius Davis, 17-1.”

Derius Davis did not score in the Chargers' 27-21 Week 1 win over the Chiefs in Brazil.

“dude is you know playing in the slot but Dave Canales loves him some David Moore so plus 750”

David Moore did not score in the Jaguars' 26-10 Week 1 win over Carolina.

“I got to go with Troy Franklin for the Broncos at plus 550.”

Troy Franklin did not score; Broncos TDs went to Courtland Sutton and J.K. Dobbins in a 20-12 win.

“Ayumanar, the rookie at wide receiver, 6-1.”

Elic Ayomanor did not score; the Titans scored no TDs (four Joey Slye FGs) in a 20-12 loss at Denver.

“But Jaden Higgins, plus 450.”

Rams beat Texans 14-9; only TDs were Kyren Williams and Davis Allen, Jayden Higgins did not score.

“And then on the Rams side, Tutu Atwell, plus 450 for him.”

Rams' only TDs were Kyren Williams and Davis Allen in the 14-9 win; Tutu Atwell did not score.

“I still like it at plus 190 That Mark Andrews baby He got to He got to get in the end zone”

Mark Andrews managed just 1 catch for 5 yards in the Ravens' 40-41 loss to Buffalo and did not score.

“Minnesota Viking running back Jordan Mason at plus 170”

Jordan Mason did not score in the Vikings' 27-24 win; Minnesota TDs were McCarthy (rush), Aaron Jones and Justin Jefferson.

“I'm going with the New York Giants plus six”

WSH 21, NYG 6 — New York Giants margin -15 vs line +6; busts.

“the Atlanta Falcons plus two and a half at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers number one”

ATL 20, TB 23 — Atlanta Falcons margin -3 vs line +2.5; busts.

“I'm on the Broncos win total under, Titans win total over.”

The Titans finished 3-14, far under their ~5.5-win total.

“I'm on the Broncos win total under, Titans win total over.”

The Broncos finished 14-3, way over their 9.5-win total, so the under lost.

“Kerner and I were just talking about how Andrews has the highest touchdown projection of any tight end for us this year. So I like it. And I am going to go with – and Andrews, by the way, is plus – you can get a plus 210 out there. I'm going to bet that.”

Mark Andrews had 1 catch for 5 yards and no touchdown in Week 1 at Buffalo.

• Mark Andrews anytime touchdown
• Trevor Lawrence anytime touchdown

“all right let's see what the parlay odds andrews plus to 10. Lawrence plus 450. 16-1. Plus 16-5 to be exact. So that's a nice juicy one.”

Both legs missed: Mark Andrews had 1 catch for 5 yards, no TD, as Bills beat Ravens 41-40; Trevor Lawrence's only TD in Jaguars 26-10 win over Panthers was a passing TD, not a rush/reception, so no anytime-TD hit. (Andrews 1 rec/5 yds/0 TD; Lawrence 0 rush/rec TD (1 pass TD))

“I actually like buying a dip for the Niners. The dip's 10 and a half, though. On the long shots, I'm saying. Super Bowl 20-1, I'll take that because, like you said, if they do stay healthy, I still do think they have that upside to get to the championship game.”

Seahawks won Super Bowl LX; 49ers did not. (San Francisco did not win the Super Bowl.)

“packer superbowl as well uh bet that already”

Seahawks won Super Bowl LX; Packers did not. (Green Bay did not win the Super Bowl.)

“I think the bet in the division that stands out to me the most is the [43:12] Chargers under nine and a half, because I think that's,”

Chargers finished the 2025 regular season 11-6, well over the 9.5 win total. (LAC 11-6)

“So I like Green Bay, 22-1 for the Super Bowl. San Francisco 16 Rams 20”

Seahawks won Super Bowl LX 29-13 over the Patriots; 49ers future busts.

“So I like Green Bay, 22-1 for the Super Bowl. San Francisco 16 Rams 20”

Seahawks won Super Bowl LX 29-13 over the Patriots; Rams future busts.

“So I like Green Bay, 22-1 for the Super Bowl.”

Seahawks won Super Bowl LX 29-13 over the Patriots; Packers future busts.

“and then uh the cardinals at plus 425 division”

Seahawks won the 2025 NFC West; Cardinals missed the playoffs, so +425 future busts. (Seattle won NFC West and the No. 1 NFC seed; Arizona eliminated.)

“But it's over or nothing with the Bills. And yeah, I'm probably going to be looking for a time to if they, you know, if they have a skid or struggle out of the gates a bit. might be looking to get some Super Bowl equity at some point. Yeah. The one I'd make now is the Super Bowl odds at 7-1. I mean, you know, I don't see too much fluctuation with that. You know, there's, like I said, I think there's three teams. And so I don't mind the 7-1.”

Seahawks won Super Bowl LX over the Patriots 29-13; Bills future busts. (Bills did not win SB LX)

“it is Super Bowl wise, Bills 7-1, Ravens 7-1, Chiefs 8-1, with the most on the Bills.”

Seahawks won Super Bowl LX 29-13 over the Patriots; Bills future busts.

“it is Super Bowl wise, Bills 7-1, Ravens 7-1, Chiefs 8-1, with the most on the Bills.”

Seahawks won Super Bowl LX 29-13 over the Patriots; Ravens future busts.

“it is Super Bowl wise, Bills 7-1, Ravens 7-1, Chiefs 8-1, with the most on the Bills.”

Seahawks won Super Bowl LX 29-13 over the Patriots; Chiefs future busts.

“The only other thing is offensive rookie of the year, defensive rookie of the year. They just have some fun odds up. Is there any player I mean I know you going to be like deep into best ball in a little while when we talk about that but is there any player you be looking at at either of those odds potentially for a long shot Let see So right now we have Cam Ward is the favorite Let's start with offense. We have Cam Ward is the favorite. He's plus 330. And then Ashton Gentry is plus 340. So first of all, I'll just say this. I think if those two guys, I'm just going to assume those two guys are the favorites as of now it makes sense quarterback and then uh you know the top like well i mean i guess it wasn't he wasn't even the top now he's just if you're counting hunter as a wide receiver who's the second top non-quarterback but i think genti should be higher than cam ward like i think i think cam ward is gonna be could be decent but i don't think he's gonna have the numbers at the end of the year that like genti will have on the raiders where he's gonna get probably as many touches as he can handle and uh he's just gonna kind of be that offense i think and you do have a decent quarterback now at least so it won't it won't be like a complete game script disaster you don't think so i think those odds are way off i think genti i know i know it's you know a little harder probably for running backs over quarterbacks but i just I just think Gentty should be significantly ahead of Cam Ward right now. So that's how I would kind of attack that. And then Hunter 6-1, you know, I think just this prospect of him playing some type of role on defense does worry me a little bit. But I can see those odds coming down as well. But I would look at that split between Gentty and Ward right now. this might be this might be the the the like the worst odds genti is you know because this this is again not a standout quarterback class so you do want to fade quarterback uh and it's just if genti gets the work that we that he's going to get being the number six overall pick it's going to be hard for one of these uh wide receivers to beat him it's going to and it's going to be hard for Omarion Hampton being in more of a probable committee so I think Jenty should be more of a clear favorite and I think he should be well ahead of board so that that's that's what I would do right now that's what I'm I'm gonna throw sprinkle a little bit uh on that because I think Jenty odds are the most likely to get shorter Cam Ward I was probably the most likely to get longer at least in the offseason So I think you get a better opportunity to bet on Cam Ward if you do like him. You could very well win it and running back to get injured more, but I think Jenty is the bet to make right now.”

2025 Offensive ROY went to Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan; Jeanty did not win. (McMillan won OROY)

“Then I got Ted McMillan over pick 12 and a half at plus one sixty.”

Tetairoa McMillan went No. 8 overall to the Panthers, well before pick 12.5, so the over lost.

“So I I think that's great value. Then I got Will Johnson under pick 24 and a half. I think that's that the slide has been too crazy. I mean, he's he was going in the top 10 at some point, so nothing's really changed.”

Will Johnson slid out of the first round and was drafted at No. 47 in Round 2, so the under 24.5 lost.

“draft board. So fading him. And one more, Ameka Abouka. This this one's probably makes me the most nervous, but overpicked 26 and a half at plus one twenty two or overpicked 29 and a half at plus two fifteen. I just most times I've seen him mocked have been, like, picked thirty, thirty one, 32, or just out of the first round completely because there's still a lot of potential to kinda jockey for that jockeying for position with the quarterback situations, and there's still, I think, more defensive players that there's gonna be runs on positions, you know, like, corner and and address kinda coming to an end where teams are gonna feel comfortable kinda waiting on him. So I like him to not crack the the top 30 either. I think in general, I think I think offensive skill positions”

Emeka Egbuka was drafted at No. 19 overall by the Buccaneers, before pick 26.5, so the over lost.

“draft board. So fading him. And one more, Ameka Abouka. This this one's probably makes me the most nervous, but overpicked 26 and a half at plus one twenty two or overpicked 29 and a half at plus two fifteen. I just most times I've seen him mocked have been, like, picked thirty, thirty one, 32, or just out of the first round completely because there's still a lot of potential to kinda jockey for that jockeying for position with the quarterback situations, and there's still, I think, more defensive players that there's gonna be runs on positions, you know, like, corner and and address kinda coming to an end where teams are gonna feel comfortable kinda waiting on him. So I like him to not crack the the top 30 either. I think in general, I think I think offensive skill positions”

Emeka Egbuka was drafted at No. 19 overall by the Buccaneers, before pick 26.5, so the over lost.

“as well as sprinkle some on Tyra Warren. He's three to one to go to the Jets at seven.”

Tyler Warren was drafted 14th overall (Colts), not 7th. (Pick 7: Armand Membou; Warren went 14th)

“earlier today and uh he said tyler warren and uh jaday baron uh are the two guys he's kind of adhering to the Jets. So you could get Warren at about three to one. So still some pretty decent value. And then Barron at 10 to one. And you probably also want to look at him for, you know, first cornerback drafted or something like that. But really, that's like even with Will Johnson, but you can get him 10 to one to go to the Jets. And that's when I really haven't heard anywhere else. But again, you know, Shefty did have that little nugget about Penix potentially going eight. So I'm going to just sprinkle a little bit on what he's talking about with seven, because I really haven't heard that anywhere else for the Jets.”

Jahdae Barron was drafted 20th overall (Broncos), not 7th. (Pick 7: Armand Membou; Barron went 20th)

“So if Jenty, for some reason, is off the board and the Raiders are still sitting there at six, I think they would go Mason Grimm. So I like him to go exact pick number six. You could get that about plus 650. So Bram at six plus 650.”

Mason Graham was drafted 5th overall (Browns), not 6th. (Pick 6: Ashton Jeanty; Graham went 5th)

“I think Warren is still chalked to be the first tight end taken.”

Tyler Warren (Colts, pick 14) was the second TE drafted; Loveland went first at No. 10. (Warren 2nd TE off the board)

“position I think could end up benefiting is cornerback low key because Hunter counts as a cornerback. So over four and a half at plus 260, a bet 365. I think Hunter, we talked about Barron, Will Johnson, those are the three locks.”

Only ~3 CBs went in round 1 (Hunter, Barron, Hairston); Will Johnson fell to round 2. Under 4.5. (3 cornerbacks in R1, under 4.5)

“so i'm going under two and a half wide outs as well and that's a plus 235”

3 WRs drafted in round 1 (McMillan 8, Egbuka 19, Golden 23); over 2.5, so under lost. (3 WRs in R1)

“So they got their tight end, Evan Ingram. uh you know Sutton they're gonna they're gonna bring Sutton back Marvin Mims came on really strong last year they drafted Detroit flank Franklin Vele uh had you know a better than expected year so I don't necessarily think it's a wide receiver uh that Denver's trying to move up for I think it's Ashton Jenty uh because running back that was the glaring glaring weakness and And so they're 17 to one to take Ashton Gentry. I think that's a great bet.”

Ashton Jeanty went to the Raiders at No. 6, not the Broncos. (Jeanty to Las Vegas, pick 6)

“You can get the Giants to draft Shador Sanders at plus 350.”

Giants drafted Jaxson Dart at No. 25, not Shedeur Sanders, who fell to round 5 (Browns). (Sanders ultimately pick 144, Browns)

“and then uh Jackson Dart uh plus 250 to the Saints I think is uh actually more likely than that”

Jaxson Dart went to the Giants at No. 25, not the Saints. (Dart to NY Giants, pick 25)

“yeah i think abu carter is the play at plus 205”

Abdul Carter went 3rd overall to the Giants, not 2nd. (Carter #3 (Giants))

“So interested in Franza inside the distance like his money line [35:09] at about minus 150 against the guy who does not defend strikes.”

Rhys McKee defeated Daniel Frunza by TKO (doctor stoppage) at 5:00 of Round 1 at UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs Murphy; Frunza's ML/inside-the-distance pick lost. (McKee def. Frunza, TKO (doctor stoppage), R1 5:00)

“jaylon walker under eight and a half at minus 150 i really think he's unlikely just carolina's at eight i i don't think he's likely to slide past carolina”

Jalon Walker went 15th overall, not under 8.5. (Walker drafted No. 15 by Atlanta)

“Talking about Shador already, but I would go under three and a half at plus 140.”

Shedeur Sanders went 144th, far over 3.5. (Sanders drafted No. 144 (Round 5) by Cleveland)

“kept McMillan over 18 and a half plus 150. I'll take that all day.”

Tetairoa McMillan went 8th overall, under 18.5; over bet loses. (McMillan drafted No. 8 by Carolina)

“Will Johnson, the corner under 11 and a half at plus 130.”

Will Johnson went 47th (Round 2), over 11.5; under bet loses. (Johnson drafted No. 47 by Arizona)

“So I'm going to go with Conclave at plus 240.”

Conclave lost Best Picture to Anora. (Anora won Best Picture)

“us off here because I like Timothy Chalamet at plus 150.”

Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) won Best Actor at the 97th Academy Awards; Chalamet lost. (Best Actor: Adrien Brody)

“less than a 50 50 shot and wicked is plus 600 but it actually leads among gold derby experts not quite a majority but right there at 47 percent uh also has about a third of editor editor and top 24 user support and the fact that editors and top 24 users on gold derby are a little bit lower than the experts uh is actually a good signal because since 2019 uh three winners have been backed by fewer than 22 percent of editors and top 24 users on gold derby including the zone of interest last year and that had just 8 of the editor backing So this is one where you know the experts are the ones that are the most predictive And they're saying something's up here. So what are your thoughts here? Because we don't see this too often where it just, the favorites don't line up at all. I really like this look for you. It wasn't one that I had written down personally, but I definitely see the mindset behind it. Ben Zausmer only has Dune at 40.2% for the record and has Wicked as its most likely challenger at 23.15%. That's still value at 6-1. 23.1% is what? That should be around 3-1? A little higher than 3-1. Yeah. I mean, Zalzner's model does that quite a bit because I think it boosts up to like 30 to 1 a little bit too much. You know, like if you went by like literal value, every single like fourth and fifth place film would be worth betting on. I'm not saying that's the case here. but um the thing that makes this data a little bit more complicated is as you mentioned this is no longer a two category award it's now one this is only the fifth year of that so the data is a little bit more difficult to parse i feel like um it's also interesting that dune is the favorite against literally three musicals in a sound category uh in wicked well a complete unknown it's not a musical musical music based movies and wicked a complete unknown and amelia perez um so i completely see your rationale behind uh betting on an underdog here i'm personally staying away from this dune uh if i recall one this category uh with it the first iteration of this film uh and so i that's why i would be shocked if though what was that like i think that's why it's overvalued though i think that that could very well be category no and everyone just going back to old reliable dune but like i said the the there's been an upset like half the time since they switched because no one knows what's going on so i actually this is like my this is my favorite bet like i think this is the biggest delta between what's most likely to happen and what the market is predicting i don't think you're gonna find a bigger delta that's why i”

Dune: Part Two won Best Sound at the 97th Academy Awards; Wicked lost. (Best Sound: Dune: Part Two)

“more field goals combined by both teams made in this game than passing touchdowns are thrown at [21:59] plus 130”

4 combined field goals (all Elliott) vs 5 passing TDs (Mahomes 3, Hurts 2); FGs were not more than passing TDs. (4 FG < 5 passing TD)

“would probably be even higher yeah and i've you're looking at a guy that's already bet under two and a half combined passing touchdowns at uh some plus money i forget the exact number but at plus”

PHI 40, KC 22 — Combined 62; under 2.5 busts.

“So I am rolling with Kansas city on the money line. Don't mind the one and a half either. Cause all these games generally are three or more. um but uh i'll take the money line here kansas city minus 124”

PHI 40, KC 22 — Kansas City Chiefs lost; moneyline busts.

“but I took the Chiefs to have more first downs [58:28] for that same reason.”

Eagles had more first downs (21 to 12), so Chiefs-more-first-downs lost. (Chiefs 12, Eagles 21)

“we're gonna go with field goals over one and a half for Kansas City at minus one twenty five. I would bet this up to about minus one fifty. So I think that the chiefs are gonna struggle in a red zone.”

Kansas City scored only touchdowns in Super Bowl LIX and Harrison Butker made zero field goals, so the team over 1.5 made field goals lost.

“give you under two and a half combined passing touchdowns at plus one fifty.”

The two teams combined for five passing touchdowns (Mahomes 3, Hurts 2) in Super Bowl LIX, so the under 2.5 lost.

“at the end of the day, I I trust bags, and I trust Mahomes. So rolling with the chiefs minus one and a half.”

PHI 40, KC 22 — Kansas City Chiefs margin -18 vs line -1.5; busts.

“And it the Kansas City Chiefs to have under eight and a half players to catch a pass at minus 165 at DraftKings”

Nine distinct Chiefs caught a pass, over 8.5; under loses. (Chiefs pass-catchers: Worthy, Kelce, Hopkins, Smith-Schuster, Brown, Hunt, Pacheco, Gray, Perine (9))

“I'm going to go with the Kansas City Chiefs to get the most first downs in the game at plus 105 at DraftKings.”

Eagles had more first downs (21) than Chiefs (12). (First downs: Eagles 21, Chiefs 12)

“I'm going with the commanders plus six and a half at the Eagles.”

PHI 55, WSH 23 — Washington Commanders margin -32 vs line +6.5; busts.

“my my final pick of the Sunday six packs gonna be Noah Gray over 13 and a half receiving yards I also like over one and a half catches I split them up I'll go with receiving yards for this”

Noah Gray did not register a catch or receiving yard in the box score of the Jan 26, 2025 AFC Championship (Chiefs 32, Bills 29); the over on 13.5 receiving yards lost. (Noah Gray: no receiving stats recorded (Kelce 2-19, JuJu Smith-Schuster 2-60 led KC TEs/WRs))

“going with the Eagles, Rams, first half under 22 and a half.”

PHI 28, LAR 22 — Combined 50; under 22.5 busts.

“I'm going with the Baltimore Ravens first half money line minus 110.”

BUF 27, BAL 25 — Baltimore Ravens lost; moneyline busts.

“I'm going with the Ravens-Bills. under 51 and a half”

BUF 27, BAL 25 — Combined 52; under 51.5 busts.

“[15:38] I'm going with the Texans Chargers under 43.”

HOU 32, LAC 12 — Combined 44; under 43 busts.

“six-pack going with the Tampa Bay Bucs minus three against the Washington Commanders. [49:05] And I love this matchup for the Bucs.”

TB 20, WSH 23 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers margin -3 vs line -3; busts.

“I'm going to go with the Kansas City Chiefs plus 10 at the Denver Broncos here.”

DEN 38, KC 0 — Kansas City Chiefs margin -38 vs line +10; busts.

• Steelers ML closed +117 · CLV +19¢ pending
• Raiders ML closed +260 · CLV -45¢ lost

“If the Steelers win then we going to have a really good position on a Chargers excuse me a Raiders Steelers money line parlay All right And that a so plus 136 for Pitt and Raiders at plus 215 [42:40] So that's a plus 643 parlay.”

Parlay busts: Steelers ML — pending; Raiders ML — lost.

“going with the carolina panthers plus eight at tampa bay”

TB 48, CAR 14 — Carolina Panthers margin -34 vs line +8; busts.

“going with the [34:18] Denver Broncos plus three and a half at the Cincinnati Bengals”

CIN 30, DEN 24 — Denver Broncos margin -6 vs line +3.5; busts.

“alone with the green [44:52] bay packers plus one and a half at the minnesota vikings”

MIN 27, GB 25 — Green Bay Packers margin -2 vs line +1.5; busts.

“I'm going to go with the Pittsburgh Steelers here. This is, I mean, no, this is, I don't think this is going to be popular at all because as Chiefs, all they do is win every week and everyone's going to tell you that stat about Patrick Mahomes if he's, you know, minus three or less. But look at Mike Tomlin as an underdog in his career. I mean, as a money line dog from October on. So take out the first month of the season. He's 43 and 33. straight up as a dog. So he's winning. He's 10 games over 500 outright as an underdog. My kids want to have a good Christmas. Off a loss, 21-14, 60%. Home dog. I think you mentioned this earlier. 19-10 straight up as an underdog for Mike Tomlin, 66%. 2-0 this season. So if the Chiefs do lose the game, I just don't. Listen, they're great. They'll probably just find a way to win another Super Bowl. but they're not a 15 and like they're not a 16 and one team. Like they're getting so lucky. I think Pittsburgh can get it done here So yeah I think you think they going to win the game too I agree Going Steelers plus 135 The parlay on that is let see you got Patriots plus 185 Steelers plus 135 plus 573”

PIT 10, KC 29 — Pittsburgh Steelers lost; moneyline busts.

“the Buffalo Bills minus 14 against the New England Patriots.”

BUF 24, NE 21 — Buffalo Bills margin +3 vs line -14; busts.

“going with the San Francisco 49ers plus one and a half at the Miami Dolphins.”

MIA 29, SF 17 — San Francisco 49ers margin -12 vs line +1.5; busts.

“i'm going with the tennessee titans plus three and a half at the indianapolis colts”

IND 38, TEN 30 — Tennessee Titans margin -8 vs line +3.5; busts.

“hundred dollars money line we're going got a full slate i'm going to switch it up last second give me the give me the seahawks this is just on the uncertainty around gino if he plays then”

SEA 24, MIN 27 — Seattle Seahawks lost; moneyline busts.

“give me the Steelers plus five and a half here.”

PHI 27, PIT 13 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -14 vs line +5.5; busts.

“the Cleveland Browns, plus four and a half, at home against the Kansas City Chiefs.”

CLE 7, KC 21 — Cleveland Browns margin -14 vs line +4.5; busts.

“I'm going with the Seahawks, [44:20] plus three minus 120.”

SEA 13, GB 30 — Seattle Seahawks margin -17 vs line +3; busts.

• Dolphins ML closed +127 · CLV +8¢ lost
• Colts ML closed +182 · CLV -12¢ lost

“the parlay Colts plus 170 Dolphins plus 135 because I was I was thinking of going to Steelers but you know what um yeah I already took him on the six-pack and I do I do think the Dolphins like you said they they are running like for as well as Tua's playing they should uh they should break through and and actually beat a good team at some point so Dolphins plus 135 Colts plus 170 Parley it looks like Petrie's out he might be out for the year they're contemplating surgery for what it's worth which would suck because i think that he they need him to make a playoff run yeah i mean yeah just like the dollars need probably need armstead so it's injury yeah injuries are just weird this year though because i mean yeah they didn't have him last week for a lot of the I don't know. It's, it's been, it's been a weird year injury wise. And then like, they're like the saints are, they're not ruling out car yet. Like no one wants to rule out anyway. It's like, Oh yeah, he not ruled out. Aiden O'Connell comes back from being in an air cast. Now he's like questionable. Like what? Injuries are so weird, but plus five 35 is the parlay for our money line dogs, Colts, dolphins.”

Parlay busts: Dolphins ML — lost; Colts ML — lost.

“the parlay Colts plus 170 Dolphins plus 135 because I was I was thinking of going to Steelers but you know what um yeah I already took him on the six-pack and I do I do think the Dolphins like you said they they are running like for as well as Tua's playing they should uh they should break through and and actually beat a good team at some point so Dolphins plus 135 Colts plus 170”

HOU 20, MIA 12 — Miami Dolphins lost; moneyline busts.

“I'm going with the Cleveland Browns plus six and a half at the [10:44] Pittsburgh Steelers”

PIT 27, CLE 14 — Cleveland Browns margin -13 vs line +6.5; busts.

“going with the Las Vegas Raiders, plus six and a half at Tampa Bay.”

TB 28, LV 13 — Las Vegas Raiders margin -15 vs line +6.5; busts.

“I'm going with the Chicago bears plus four at the San Francisco [34:47] 49ers.”

SF 38, CHI 13 — Chicago Bears margin -25 vs line +4; busts.

“I'm going with the Falcons Vikings under 46 and a half, [53:57] 45 and a half.”

MIN 42, ATL 21 — Combined 63; under 45.5 busts.

“I'll take the Jets on the money line they actually showed some good coaching last week. I liked how they got... And their defense was good. That too. I even mean like the... Because I saw them... I always look at the transaction wire because I have to update all the projections and stuff. So I'm like, okay, they call up Chennai Wangu. What does this mean? Are they going to inactivate Davis? Because I know Wangu is more of a kick returner. But it seemed like they called up Wangu to improve their kick returning, but also get Davis involved in the offense. He called a touchdown. Wangu scores a touchdown. So, like, even the offense got a little – and the special teams got a little frisky there. So, I mean, yeah, I thought about the Jets. I just – yeah, it's all Rodgers at this point. It's like, is he in Cousins territory or not? Because him and Devontae are struggling. But I think this is – I don't mind this at all because I think this is the way to play it. You know, just take the take the uncertainty, get the plus 225 payout if if they win the game.”

MIA 32, NYJ 26 — New York Jets lost; moneyline busts.

“i am going with the tennessee titans plus five and a half at the washington commanders”

WSH 42, TEN 19 — Tennessee Titans margin -23 vs line +5.5; busts.

“going with Ravens Eagles first half under 25 and a half.”

Halftime: PHI 14, BAL 12 (Final: BAL 19, PHI 24) — Halftime combined 26 (PHI 14–BAL 12); under 25.5 busts by 0.5.

“Let's go with the San Francisco 49ers plus 2.5 at the Green Bay Packers.”

GB 38, SF 10 — San Francisco 49ers margin -28 vs line +2.5; busts.

“I'm going with the Indianapolis Colts plus seven and a half against the Detroit Lions.”

IND 6, DET 24 — Indianapolis Colts margin -18 vs line +7.5; busts.

“I'm going with Tommy Cutlets and the New York Giants plus six at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.”

NYG 7, TB 30 — New York Giants margin -23 vs line +6; busts.

“My money line dog is going to be the Chicago Bears. Hungry Bears are violent bears.”

CHI 27, MIN 30 — Chicago Bears lost; moneyline busts.

“I'm going with the Cincinnati Bengals plus one and a half at the Los [16:55] Angeles Chargers”

LAC 34, CIN 27 — Cincinnati Bengals margin -7 vs line +1.5; busts.

“So give me Brown Saints under 44 and a half.”

NO 35, CLE 14 — Combined 49; under 44.5 busts.

• Chiefs +8.5 (teased) lost
• Steelers +9 (teased) won

“um so Bengals Browns plus seven and a half each I'm gonna go with two teams I'm on par with the market but teasing them up they just voodoo cover I mean they'll probably voodoo cover anyway but couldn't bring myself to put them in a six-pack just based on a trend or anything like that um And that's the Kansas City Chiefs up to eight and a half and the Steelers up to nine.”

Parlay busts: Chiefs +8.5 (teased) +8.5 — lost; Steelers +9 (teased) +9 — won.

“hungry bears are violent bears okay i'm gonna go with the a lot a lot uh more boring pick but i mentioned i did like your cleveland pick so i'm gonna go with them as a money line dog uh even money jamis is a dog always does well so try to get it before you know i can see it flipping from”

NO 35, CLE 14 — Cleveland Browns lost; moneyline busts.

“Sunday six-pack I'm going with the Indianapolis Colts plus four and a half still like it four three and a half whatever's out there uh anything more than a field goal against the Buffalo Bills”

IND 20, BUF 30 — Indianapolis Colts margin -10 vs line +4.5; busts.

“I'm rolling with the San Francisco 49ers minus five and a half at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.”

TB 20, SF 23 — San Francisco 49ers margin +3 vs line -5.5; busts.

“I'm going with the New York Jets plus one.”

ARI 31, NYJ 6 — New York Jets margin -25 vs line +1; busts.

• Colts ML closed +185 · CLV -9¢ lost
• Texans ML closed +169 · CLV -14¢ lost

“Colts are plus 176 at home against Buffalo. The Texans plus 155 at home against Detroit. Parlay them together, plus 604.”

Parlay busts: Colts ML — lost; Texans ML — lost.

“I'm going with the Dallas Cowboys plus two and a half the Atlanta Falcons”

ATL 27, DAL 21 — Dallas Cowboys margin -6 vs line +2.5; busts.

“I'm going with the Cleveland Browns plus two against the Los Angeles Chargers at home.”

CLE 10, LAC 27 — Cleveland Browns margin -17 vs line +2; busts.

“I'm going with the Seattle Seahawks. [40:47] There is a two-and-a-half out there, so plus two-and-a-half [40:50] at home against the Los Angeles Rams.”

SEA 20, LAR 26 — Seattle Seahawks margin -6 vs line +2.5; busts.

“I'm going to go with the Jags Eagles under 23 and a half first half.”

PHI 28, JAX 23 — Combined 51; under 23.5 busts.

• Cowboys ML closed +146 · CLV -20¢ lost
• Patriots ML closed +147.5 · CLV +3¢ lost

“So Cowboys plus 126. [1:00:42] Patriots plus 150. [1:00:44] Parlay those together plus 465. [1:00:47] That is our money line underdog parlay.”

Parlay busts: Cowboys ML — lost; Patriots ML — lost.

“I'm going with the Miami Dolphins minus three at home against the Arizona Crosters. [15:40] I'd go up to minus 125 on this.”

MIA 27, ARI 28 — Miami Dolphins margin -1 vs line -3; busts.

“going with the Dallas Cowboys plus four and a half at the San Francisco 49ers.”

SF 30, DAL 24 — Dallas Cowboys margin -6 vs line +4.5; busts.

“going with the Chicago Bears minus two and a half at the Washington Commanders.”

WSH 18, CHI 15 — Chicago Bears margin -3 vs line -2.5; busts.

“I'm going with the Cincinnati Bengals minus one and a half at home.”

CIN 17, PHI 37 — Cincinnati Bengals margin -20 vs line -1.5; busts.

“I'm going to go with the Eagles-Bengals under 48.”

CIN 17, PHI 37 — Combined 54; under 48 busts.

• Patriots ML +290 closed +271.5 · CLV +19¢ won
• Raiders ML +400 closed +340 · CLV +60¢ lost

“going Pats plus 290. Raiders plus 400, That is a plus 1850 parlay, Moneyline Dog parlay, if anyone out there wants to get real crazy.”

Parlay busts: Patriots ML +290 — won; Raiders ML +400 — lost.

“I'm going with the New York Jets minus one and a half at the Pittsburgh [16:14] Steelers.”

PIT 37, NYJ 15 — New York Jets margin -22 vs line -1.5; busts.

“So give me the jets on the road. Yeah, I like this. I want Wilson to start. I mean, look speaking so but i so i need confirmation there then i'll definitely play this probably play jets money line i play money line yeah for what it's worth i did play money line like i just prefer that with you know when i can get a short money line but i still like this”

PIT 37, NYJ 15 — New York Jets lost; moneyline busts.

“I like the Browns here, but catching six and a half.”

CLE 14, CIN 21 — Cleveland Browns margin -7 vs line +6.5; busts.

“I'm going with the San Francisco 49ers minus one at home against Kansas City Chiefs.”

SF 18, KC 28 — San Francisco 49ers margin -10 vs line -1; busts.

“all year. We're getting plus seven. Even in Caleb Williams' second start when he was still just kind of a disaster, to be frank, Houston beat Chicago by six points. And you look at our luck rankings, Houston, the luckiest team in the National Football League, New England 26, that 25-place difference, there's also a 56% gap. Both of those trigger a trend where 64% against the spread over the past five years on a near 200 game sample size. So this is a luck game. Give me New England. It's disgusting, but I love it.”

NE 21, HOU 41 — New England Patriots margin -20 vs line +7; busts.

“So give me the Saints at home plus three and a half.”

NO 27, TB 51 — New Orleans Saints margin -24 vs line +3.5; busts.

“so give me the broncos plus three”

DEN 16, LAC 23 — Denver Broncos margin -7 vs line +3; busts.