“Jordan Rodgers, jump in here. Do you see it the same way as these two guys, or would you go the other way with Smith? No, I'm going the same way, and I think he breaks that sneaky record we just saw of Tyreek Hill and has over 1,700 yards, and here's why. Drake May loves to push the ball downfield. They led the NFL in air yards per attempt last year. He was a runner-up for the MVP, and he did it with Stephon Diggs, Kayshaun Booty, and Mack Hollins. Now he's got A.J. Brown, and on the other side, Romeo Dobbs, who they traded for for the Packers, who led them in receiving. So not all the attention is going to be on A.J., but he's going to get a heavy share of the shots downfield. I think he's going to make an immediate impact. I'm surprised at the pricing here. I would have made this closer to minus 160, so I agree with you guys. I would play Brown.”
Joe Fortenbaugh
Guest · 155-161 on settled picks
Bankroll
Last 10: 5-5 Net units over time, 1 unit staked per pick · 73 settled daysWhere the picks cash
record by league and market · ROI + color appear at ≥5 decided picks (smaller samples are noise)| League | spread | prop | total | futures | moneyline | parlay | other | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 21-32-24% | 21-25-13% | 9-13-22% | 8-5+16% | 1-1 | 0-3 | — | 60-79-18% |
| CFB | 18-18-5% | 4-3+18% | 6-7-12% | — | 0-2 | — | 0-1 | 28-31-8% |
| NBA | 11-6+24% | 9-12-18% | 1-1 | 2-4+16% | 1-0 | — | — | 24-23+7% |
| CBB | 19-15+7% | 0-1 | 6-4+15% | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | — | 25-22+2% |
| Other | — | 3-0 | 1-1 | 3-1 | 3-0 | — | — | 10-2+389% |
| MLB | — | 1-0 | 2-1 | 0-2 | 1-0 | — | — | 4-3+7% |
Picks
323 total · 7 pending“The Dodgers over-under total for this season is 102.5 wins.”
“[29:15] Joe, what is your best bet surrounding Aaron Judge? [29:18] His batting average prop this year is 291. [29:21] I'm going to play the under.”
“The biggest is Shohei Ohtani. Joe, what is our best bet on the two-way superstar? Leeds Major League Baseball on RBIs pays 14-1. Love the price for a guy who just two seasons ago had 130 RBIs and finished second in Major League Baseball.”
“We are back and we'll go back to the NFL where projected win totals have been set for each team. We're going to play a little more or less Fortinball. Let's start with Baltimore where the Ravens have more or less wins than the set 11.5, which is the most of any team in the NFL. I'm going to go less, but it's not one of my more confident plays.”
“All right, more or less for the Dolphins. They gutted everything. More or less than four and a half wins. I would go less because I don't understand the purpose of winning five.”
“Their win total, nine and a half, more or less for Peyton and Denver. I'm going less here.”
“I like the U to score in the first half tonight against Bosnia”
USA beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0; Folarin Balogun scored just before halftime, so the U.S. scored in the first half. (USA 2-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina; Balogun 1H goal, Tillman 82')
“Give me something on Wemby offensively. 25-plus points, high floor in this series. His worst night was 24 points, average of 27, so we're not asking him to do too much outside of what he's already been doing.”
SA 90, NY 94 — Victor Wembanyama scored 19 points and missed the spoken 25+ points milestone. (Victor Wembanyama: 19 points)
“How about Dylan Harper? Six-plus rebounds. Great price here because he's coming off his worst rebounding night of the series with just four boards. But look at the other three games. Nine boards, eight boards, six boards.”
SA 90, NY 94 — Dylan Harper recorded 5 rebounds and missed the spoken 6+ rebounds milestone. (Dylan Harper: 5 rebounds)
“And for the entire Knicks team, what's your favorite prop? Josh Hart two plus steals Nice plus money wager here for a guy who”
SA 90, NY 94 — Josh Hart recorded 0 steals and missed the spoken 2+ steals milestone. (Josh Hart: 0 steals)
“What is the best bet look in a game set? I like Carolina. Minus 115, good price for them on the road here.”
Carolina Hurricanes shut out the Vegas Golden Knights 3-0 in Game 6 to win the Stanley Cup Final. (Carolina 3, Vegas 0 (Hurricanes win series 4-2))
“Lay the one and a half with Illinois. Danny Hurley, 17 and one against the spread in his last 18 tournament games.”
CONN 71, ILL 62 — Illinois Fighting Illini margin -9 vs line -1.5; busts.
“And how about the total in that game? Under 139 and a half. Two teams that play at a very slow pace.”
CONN 71, ILL 62 — Combined 133; under 139.5 covers.
“Michigan, Arizona plus the 1.5. This game comes down entirely to Michigan's three-point shooting.”
ARIZ 73, MICH 91 — Arizona Wildcats margin -18 vs line +1.5; busts.
“Total for this is 138.5 points. We're going to bet the under. Illinois doesn't foul all that much.”
ILL 71, IOWA 59 — Combined 130; under 138.5 covers.
“Arizona is a six-and-a-half-point favorite in the West Regional Final against the Boilermakers. What do you think? I would look to Arizona, but I wouldn't go crazy with this one. Game open four. Last night, we immediately saw Wildcat money flood the market and knock it up to six-and-a-half. Purdue can defend the rim a little bit, which is where Arizona wants to live, so keep that in mind. But given the rebounding edge, given the turnover edge, given the way that Arizona's been playing, and the way they can defend the three-pointer, which is what Purdue wants to do for part of their offense, I'd be looking at the Wildcats here.”
ARIZ 79, PUR 64 — Arizona Wildcats margin +15 vs line -6.5; covers.
“All right, let's do the other three games that are on tonight's schedule. Well again really good glamour teams in a game of who you got Joe I start with you Alabama the spread is 8 Who do you like Laying it with Michigan Alabama going to get cooked on the glass in tonight game which is going to lead to a lot of second-chance opportunities for Michigan.”
MICH 90, ALA 77 — Michigan Wolverines margin +13 vs line -8; covers.
“Joe gave you three for three on winners yesterday. St. John's and Duke tonight. The number is six and a half. Duke is the favorite. What is your pick? I would look to the Johnnies and take the points here. Totals 141 and a half. I think it goes under.”
DUKE 80, SJU 75 — St. John's Red Storm margin -5 vs line +6.5; covers.
“Totals 141 and a half. I think it goes under.”
DUKE 80, SJU 75 — Combined 155; under 141.5 busts.
“UConn, lay the one and a half. Clean out the earwax because you're not going to want to miss this. Danny Hurley in his career in the tournament, 18-4 against the spread.”
CONN 67, MSU 63 — UConn Huskies margin +4 vs line -1.5; covers.
“Arizona, a 6.5-point favorite over Purdue tomorrow. Which side do you like? Like Arizona, don't love Arizona. Game opened four, and last night we immediately saw a lot of wildcat money. I mean, how could there not be, considering how good they've looked? They can defend the three-point line, which is going to be big against Purdue. On top of that, they've got a rebounding edge and a turnover edge. But the number's starting to get away from this here. So we like Arizona.”
ARIZ 79, PUR 64 — Arizona Wildcats margin +15 vs line -6.5; covers.
“Over-under, also known as the total set at 138.5. We want to go under in that game.”
ILL 71, IOWA 59 — Combined 130; under 138.5 covers.
“The Knicks to win the East plus 380. The Celtics to win the East plus 170. I would much rather take the Knicks.”
The New York Knicks won the 2025-26 Eastern Conference, sweeping the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals (won Game 4, 130-93) and advanced to the NBA Finals. (Knicks def. Cavaliers 4-0 in ECF)
“St. John's plus the 6.5. The Caleb Foster injury looms large here in five games without him since the injury against UNC. Minus 18 turnover differential. St. John's can turn you over.”
DUKE 80, SJU 75 — St. John's Red Storm margin -5 vs line +6.5; covers.
“Alabama, Michigan, the Wolverines are an eight-and-a-half point favorite. We'll lay the eight-and-a-half with Michigan.”
MICH 90, ALA 77 — Michigan Wolverines margin +13 vs line -8.5; covers.
“Izzo and Hurley, Michigan State and UConn. The Huskies a one-and-a-half point favorite. What do you like? It's got to be UConn. Danny Hurley is Mr. Money in the tournament. 18-4 against the spread. Lifetime, 8-0 against the spread. in the Sweet 16 or later.”
CONN 67, MSU 63 — UConn Huskies margin +4 vs line -1.5; covers.
“Iowa State, a three-and-a-half-point favorite. What's the smart money? We'll take the points here at Tennessee, get a little bit on the money line as well. The injury to Joshua Jefferson for Iowa State looms large.”
ISU 62, TENN 76 — Tennessee Volunteers margin +14 vs line +3.5; covers.
“Paul Skeen's under six and a half strikeouts.”
NYM 11, PIT 7 — Paul Skenes: 1 strikeouts vs under 6.5; covers. (Paul Skenes: 1 strikeouts)
“I would keep riding with Iowa here plus the two-and-a-half. Should be a lower-scoring game, which makes the two-and-a-half in our pocket more valuable.”
Iowa defeated Nebraska 77-71 (South Region Sweet 16) — Iowa won outright, easily covering +2.5. (Iowa 77, Nebraska 71)
“I would take St. John's plus the six and a half. We've seen early under money here, which correlates nicely with an underdog play.”
DUKE 80, SJU 75 — St. John's Red Storm margin -5 vs line +6.5; covers.
“We'll lay the 7.5 with Purdue Greeny.”
PUR 79, TEX 77 — Purdue Boilermakers margin +2 vs line -7.5; busts.
“Michigan State, UConn, that's an under bet. 137.5, open 140. Under money's been coming in for good reason.”
UCONN 67, MICH ST 63 — Combined 130; under 137.5 clears.
“We'll look to a futures play here. Houston to make the final fours plus money. Plus 115, $10 bet, returns $11.50 in profit.”
Houston lost to Illinois in the Elite Eight, failing to reach the Final Four. (Houston (No. 2 seed) eliminated by Illinois in the Elite Eight)
“This game opened Gonzaga minus seven. Money immediately came in on Texas and knocked it down to five and a half.”
GONZ 68, TEX 74 — Texas Longhorns margin +6 vs line +5.5; covers.
“We'll take the 2.5. This could be one of your surprise upsets of the day. So we're going to begin Santa Clara plus the 2.5 over Kentucky.”
UK 89, SCU 84 — Santa Clara Broncos margin -5 vs line +2.5; busts.
“Akron plus 7.5 over Texas Tech. Red Raiders are limping in both literally and figuratively.”
TTU 91, AKR 71 — Akron Zips margin -20 vs line +7.5; busts.
“And finally, Northern Iowa plus the 9.5 over St. John's. I think the Johnnies are a tad overvalued because we just saw them destroy UConn in the Big East Championship game.”
SJU 79, UNI 53 — Northern Iowa Panthers margin -26 vs line +9.5; busts.
“So another first four team, Texas taking on BYU. I'd play the Longhorns plus the two and a half there.”
BYU 71, TEX 79 — Texas Longhorns margin +8 vs line +2.5; covers.
“[32:45] I like Harry, but I like money more, so we're definitely going to take South Florida here. [32:49] This is a popular play out west. [32:50] Come on, you like money, too. [32:51] No, just talk. Go ahead. [32:52] You like money, too. [32:53] All right, this one opened 6.5. [32:55] Got bet down to 5.5. [32:56] The injury comes in. [32:57] Now we're down to 4.5. [32:59] Two teams heading in opposite directions. [33:00] Louisville loses 4 of 8 on their way in. [33:02] Here comes South Florida. [33:03] They've won 11 straight, as you know. [33:04] Very good basketball team. [33:05] We're not friends anymore. [33:06] Problem for Louisville outside of the injury, three-point variance. [33:10] They shoot the fourth most threes of anybody in the entire country. [33:13] When those aren't falling, the offense collapses. [33:15] South Florida's got a top 40 defense. [33:17] We like South Florida plus the points upset special.”
LOU 83, USF 79 — South Florida Bulls margin -4 vs line +4.5; covers.
“We'll take high point plus the 10.5 over Wisconsin.”
WIS 82, HPU 83 — High Point Panthers margin +1 vs line +10.5; covers.
“where you catching 10 points Now elsewhere matchup between VCU and North Carolina I would look to VCU here They the dog plus 2 The Caleb Martin injury looms large 20 points 9 rebounds 58 from the field gone from the lineup Here comes VCU. Winners of 16 of their last 17. Balanced attack on offense and defense. They're top 60 in both categories. And here's the thing. When you have a spread of 2.5, if we're projecting a tight game, you're going to need to make your free throws.”
UNC 78, VCU 82 — VCU Rams margin +4 vs line +2.5; covers.
“So we're betting over under on Siena. How many points will they score? We're going to go under 53 and a half against Duke.”
DUKE 71, SIE 65 — Combined 136; under 53.5 busts.
“Elsewhere, let's go with the dog. High point, plus 10.5 against Wisconsin.”
WIS 82, HPU 83 — High Point Panthers margin +1 vs line +10.5; covers.
“Idaho we're gonna go under their number against Houston which is 56 and a half”
HOU 78, IDHO 47 — Idaho scored 47; team total under 56.5 covers.
“So the future is going to be interesting for the Lakers and Luka will be the center of that But the immediate future was what I wanted to ask Joe about Joe I was looking at your notes and there was a best bet that I found fascinating Go Yeah, they play soft. I bet they missed the playoffs. I know that sounds crazy, and people say, well, look at this, look at that. It's not a coin flip situation. They're offering us 10 to 1. What does 10 to 1 mean? It means 9%. So ask yourself, is there a greater than, less than, or equal to 9% chance of them missing the playoffs? I think it's greater than that. I think Phoenix gets past them and pushes them into the play-in. And once they're there, wouldn't be surprised if they completely implode and pack it in. They're a team that doesn't play any defense, as Wendy was telling you, 24th in defensive rating. Through 58 games, I believe it is this season, they have a negative point differential and a negative net rating. They're 19th in net rating. They play soft defense. Can you get DeAndre Ayton to play consistent for you night in and night out? Do you have leadership? Are you going to make a big push down the stretch? You offer me 10-1 that they miss the playoffs. I'll take that bet, Greeny. 10-1 that they miss the playoffs. Again, losing in the play-in constitutes missing the playoffs.”
Lakers clinched a playoff spot (4th seed in the West at 53-29) and did not miss the playoffs. (Lakers finished 53-29, No. 4 seed West; beat Rockets in Round 1 before being swept by OKC in Round 2)
“We're going to lay the four-and-a-half here with the Seahawks.”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Seattle Seahawks margin +16 vs line -4.5; covers.
“All right, so you like the Seahawks, but then how about May himself? Do we have a prop for him? I'll give you two. I like him over 37 and a half rushing yards”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Drake Maye: 37 rushing_yards vs over 37.5; busts. (Drake Maye: 37 rushing_yards)
“All right, so you like the Seahawks, but then how about May himself? Do we have a prop for him? I'll give you two. I like him over 37 and a half rushing yards, but the focus here, the better play, is that May throws an interception.”
Drake Maye threw two interceptions in Super Bowl LX, including a fourth-quarter INT returned for a touchdown by Uchenna Nwosu. (27/43, 295 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT (one a 45-yard pick-six by Nwosu))
“Patriots team total, you're betting the over-under on how many points they score. 20.5 is the number I would play under.”
NE 13, SEA 29 — NE scored 13 points; under 20.5 team total hits.
“Seattle minus 4.5 combined with the under 45.5 total points,”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Seattle Seahawks margin +16 vs line -4.5; covers.
“Seattle minus 4.5 combined with the under 45.5 total points, which you can wait on because the public money will probably knock that up a little bit.”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Combined 42; under 45.5 covers.
“The New York Knicks tonight are laying seven and a half against the Portland Trailblazers.”
NY 127, POR 97 — New York Knicks margin +30 vs line -7.5; covers.
“We're going to lay the four and a half with Kansas.”
KU 90, BYU 82 — Kansas Jayhawks margin +8 vs line -4.5; covers.
“Yeah, I would play Denver plus the points. It's at four and a half now.”
DEN 7, NE 10 — Denver Broncos margin -3 vs line +4.5; covers.
“All right, let's do Hitting the Mark. It's brought to you by DraftKings Sportsbook. Joe Fortenbaugh is here with a few picks that will turn into a parlay for the NFC Championship game. Joe, take it away. Let's start with Jackson, Smith, and Jigba to score an anytime touchdown plus 100. Hell of a price for a guy who's found the end zone 10 times in his last 14 games, especially when you factor in the matchup against the Rams. Since week 13, only two teams have given up more passing touchdowns than the Rams,”
Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored a touchdown in the NFC Championship, a 14-yard TD catch from Sam Darnold just before halftime. (10 receptions, 153 yards, 1 TD (14-yard TD catch))
“On top of that let look at his teammate AJ Barner Four plus receptions Great buy low price because he had zero targets against the Niners last week Wasn even a factor in the passing game But this dude shows up in these matchups against the Rams Two games this year, targeted 17 times. 14 receptions, 119 yards, and a touchdown. Darnold under pressure, finds his security blanket, checks it down. Barner gets us four or more receptions.”
AJ Barner caught only 2 of 3 targets for 13 yards in the NFC Championship, so the four-plus-receptions pick lost. (2 receptions, 13 yards on 3 targets)
“And then finally, let's go to the other side. Matthew Stafford, longest completion, 35 or more yards. Sean McVay knows how to dial it up against a Mike McDonald defense. And that's not just against McDonald's Seahawks. It's against McDonald's Ravens as well, if you go back in time. The last matchup Stafford had against this team in Seattle that went to overtime, four. Count them, four completions of 40 or more yards. We just need one to hit 35. I'm confident we'll get that here, Green.”
Matthew Stafford had at least one completion beyond 35 yards in the NFC Championship, including a 40-yard completion to Colby Parkinson. (22/35, 374 yards, 3 TD; longest completion 40 yards (to Colby Parkinson))
“The Seahawks are a two-and-a-half-point favorite at DraftKings as we speak. Joe, which way on that are you looking? Laying it with Seattle, two key reasons. Let's start with the Rams' defense. Since week 13, completely fallen off a cliff. 22nd or worse in scoring, efficiency, and EPA. You just saw them last week. They survived the Bears, giving up 417 total yards in the process.”
SEA 31, LAR 27 — Seattle Seahawks margin +4 vs line -2.5; covers.
- Drake Maye 30+ rushing yards lost
- Blake Corum 46+ rushing yards lost
- Rome Odunze 40+ receiving yards won
“Most definitely hit the mark Let do Hitting the Mark It brought to you by DraftKings Sportsbook We looking for props for this weekend particularly focusing on the Sunday divisional games with our betting expert Joe Fortenbaugh These are all brought to you by DraftKings Sportsbook. Joe, who do you like to hit the mark? Texans, Patriots. Drake May, 30-plus rushing yards. This is going to be a low-scoring game. Every single yard is going to count. Drake May is averaging six rushing attempts per game on the season. Ran for 66 yards against the Chargers last week. As elite as that Houston defense is, quarterbacks can run on them. Tenth most rushing yards allowed to opposing QBs this season because they flush you out of the pocket and then you take off. We like made a run for 30 or more yards. All right, that's the early game Sunday. Let's go to the night game. What do you like on the Rams? Blake Corum, 46-plus rushing yards. The Bears rank 24th in defensive rush success rate. You can run on these guys. Enter Corum, averaging over five yards per carry on the season, double-digit rushing attempts in five of his last six games. Pay attention. Rams are three-and-a-half-point favorites, so if they're leading late in the game, they'll be running the ball to kill the clock. That's where Coram could rack up some bonus yards. All right, and how about the other side? Give me something from the Bears. Roma Dunze, 40-plus receiving yards. Cheap price because he only caught two passes last week coming back from injury against the Packers. However, those two passes went for 44 receiving yards. The vulnerability of the Los Angeles Rams is the secondary. Tenth-most receiving yards allowed, two opposing wide receivers. You can throw on these guys. This is supposed to be a very cold game, so a lot of people are making the mistake thinking it's going to be low scoring. Don't make that mistake. This game has sneaky shootout potential. By the way, that play remains the most watchable play maybe of the NFL season. So recapping, if you like the picks, they're a parlay. Drake May over on the rushing yards. Coram over on the rushing yards. Odunze over on the receiving yards. They've parlayed them together with the DraftKings Sportsbook app. Look for the hitting the mark featured parlay priced at plus 506 odds.”
The featured parlay lost: Maye had 10 rushing yards, Corum had 19 rushing yards, and Odunze cleared his leg with 44 receiving yards.
“Team total over 27 and a half points.”
IU 27, MIA 21 — Indiana scored 27; team total over 27.5 busts (needed 28+).
“I'd lay the eight and a half with Indiana.”
IU 27, MIA 21 — Indiana Hoosiers margin +6 vs line -8.5; busts.
“We power through. This total opened 51-1⁄2. Immediately got that down to 48-1⁄2 because of the weather. People think the cold weather is going to lead to an under. I think we're getting a discount. I think we played the over. Here's the number. Last 10 years, games in the playoffs, kickoff, freezing temperatures or lower, over is 18-9.”
CHI 17, LAR 20 — Combined 37; over 48.5 busts.
“I'd look to laying the three and a half with the Rams.”
CHI 17, LAR 20 — Los Angeles Rams margin +3 vs line -3.5; busts.
“Bills Broncos tomorrow in Denver game pick is Broncos minus one and a half best bet under 45 and a half.”
DEN 33, BUF 30 — Denver Broncos margin +3 vs line -1.5; covers.
“Under 45 and a half is the best bet.”
DEN 33, BUF 30 — Combined 63; under 45.5 busts.
“All right, let's go to the next game. We just told you Kyle Shanahan never loses in this round. He's a big underdog at Seattle tomorrow night. Seahawks minus seven. Joe, best bets. Laying the points with Seattle. Sam Darnold's kryptonite is pressure. Problem is San Francisco can't generate any. Since Nick Bosa went down with an injury in week three, The Niners rank 31st in the NFL in pass rush win rate.”
SEA 41, SF 6 — Seattle Seahawks margin +35 vs line -7; covers.
“Game pick is Houston plus three.”
NE 28, HOU 16 — Houston Texans margin -12 vs line +3; busts.
“Best bet is under 40 and a half.”
NE 28, HOU 16 — Combined 44; under 40.5 busts.
“Best bet in this one, Philadelphia plus one and a half.”
BUF 12, PHI 13 — Philadelphia Eagles margin +1 vs line +1.5; covers.
“We'll go ahead and play Oklahoma on the money line here.”
OU 24, ALA 34 — Oklahoma Sooners lost; moneyline busts.
“Miami versus the Aggies What your best bet Laying the three and a half with Texas A”
TA&M 3, MIA 10 — Texas A&M Aggies margin -7 vs line -3.5; busts.
“Give me one more. Tulane at Ole Miss. Smaller bet will lay the big number with Ole Miss. now that it's crossed 17, we'll lay the 17.5.”
MISS 41, TULN 10 — Ole Miss Rebels margin +31 vs line -17.5; covers.
“I take the Raiders plus the 11.5. We're asking the Eagles to not only win, but to win by margin. It's not something they do.”
PHI 31, LV 0 — Las Vegas Raiders margin -31 vs line +11.5; busts.
“get the spread out of there and just lay the minus 120 on the Bills to win the game”
NE 31, BUF 35 — Buffalo Bills won; moneyline covers.
“How about the Browns and Bears in frigid Chicago? I'll take Cleveland plus the 7.5. This is what we call a sandwich spot for the Bears.”
CHI 31, CLE 3 — Cleveland Browns margin -28 vs line +7.5; busts.
“Best bet SEC championship game Bama tomorrow Anything less than three it all systems go on Georgia, two and a half, so we're going to go ahead and lay the points.”
ALA 7, UGA 28 — Georgia Bulldogs margin +21 vs line -2.5; covers.
“Next, NFL pick, Steelers-Ravens. What do we like? Ravens minus five and a half.”
BAL 22, PIT 27 — Baltimore Ravens margin -5 vs line -5.5; busts.
“And then how about the big game at Lambeau Field, Bears and Packers? This is an under bet, 44 and a half.”
GB 28, CHI 21 — Combined 49; under 44.5 busts.
“on the Cowboys next week against Minnesota, where they're minus 6.5.”
DAL 26, MIN 34 — Dallas Cowboys margin -8 vs line -6.5; busts.
“But if you want the best bet, you want to play the under 41.5. Money's been coming in on that all week, and for good reason.”
KC 10, HOU 20 — Combined 30; under 41.5 covers.
“NFL as we go, but we welcome again our new gambling partners, DraftKings Sportsbook, and to the NBA we go with Joe Fortenbaugh, our betting expert, who nailed one yesterday. We did King of the Court yesterday, you gave us Anthony Edwards, and it paid off. You could have had a share of a million dollars if you bet with Joe yesterday Want to announce official retirement from King of the Court Okay let us talk about what we are playing tonight Where does it start Carl Anthony Towns rebounds We go over 11 and a half Key to the handicap. Second half of a back-to-back after they lost to the Celtics last night. What does that mean? Unlikely to see Mitchell Robinson tonight, which means Cat should eat on the glass. This season, he's averaging about 11 boards per game with no Mitchell Robinson. That number jumps to 13. Great matchup here. Great opportunity to have a big night on the glass for Cat.”
NY 119, CHA 104 — Karl-Anthony Towns: 18 rebounds vs over 11.5; covers. (Karl-Anthony Towns: 18 rebounds)
“Next, we go to Cooper Flagg. What are we looking at with him? Under 17.5 points.”
DAL 118, MIA 108 — Cooper Flagg: 22 points vs under 17.5; busts. (Cooper Flagg: 22 points)
“And then we got the Nuggets and the Pacers tonight. What are you looking at there? Over 235.5 total points.”
IND 120, DEN 135 — Combined 255; over 235.5 covers.
“These are all from Packers-Lions. Jordan Love, one and a half touchdowns. More or less? More. Detroit has allowed this in eight of 11 games this season. In fact, there are only five teams in the NFL allowing more touchdown passes per game than the Lions. You see the way it's priced on the over-under, about 48 and a half. Vegas does expect some scoring here, so we're going to go more one and a half touchdowns. Jordan Love.”
Jordan Love threw 4 passing touchdowns in Green Bay's 31-24 win over Detroit, clearing 1.5. (17/28, 218 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT)
“Jameer Gibbs, total yards, so rushing plus receiving, one 14 and a half, more or less. This is going to be less.”
Jahmyr Gibbs totaled 86 rushing+receiving yards (68 rush + 18 rec) vs. Green Bay, under the 114.5 line. (20 car, 68 yds rush; 3 rec, 18 yds — 86 total)
“And it could mean more passing yards for Jared Goff. His number is 242.5. Which way do we go? That I would actually look to less.”
DET 24, GB 31 — Jared Goff: 256 passing_yards vs under 242.5; busts. (Jared Goff: 256 passing_yards)
“Patrick Mahomes' passing yards total is 273.5. We go more or less. More. The opportunities are going to be their fourth most passing attempts per game this season.”
KC 23, IND 20 — Patrick Mahomes: 352 passing_yards vs over 273.5; covers. (Patrick Mahomes: 352 passing_yards)
“How about Indiana Jones? One and a half passing touchdowns is his total. We go more or less. We're going to go less here. This number isn't as easy to eclipse as some people think. Jones has only hit it four of ten games this year. Kansas City's only allowed it two of ten games this season. The path for the Colts is going to be to run the football early and run the football often.”
Daniel Jones threw 2 passing touchdowns vs. Kansas City, over the 1.5 line (bet was under). (2 passing TDs (to Michael Pittman Jr. and Andrew Ogletree) in 23-20 loss to Chiefs)
“And then how about Jonathan Taylor, who's been sensational. His rushing total, 91 and a half yards. This is where we play the more. Workhorse running back, number one in the NFL in rushing attempts per game, coming off a bye, rested in a situation where he's going to see a ton of workload. Kansas City been good against the run not great About 18th in the NFL in opponent yards for rushing attempts So as long as we get the opportunities I see a 100 day here All right If you like Joe picks they a parlay We going over on Mahomes under on Jones over on JT”
KC 23, IND 20 — Jonathan Taylor: 58 rushing_yards vs over 91.5; busts. (Jonathan Taylor: 58 rushing_yards)
“262.5 passing yards for Patrick Mahomes. More or less? Less. Only three of ten quarterbacks have done this to the Bronco defense this year.”
DEN 22, KC 19 — Patrick Mahomes: 276 passing_yards vs under 262.5; busts. (Patrick Mahomes: 276 passing_yards)
“Four and a half catches for Travis Kelsey, more or less? Less. Denver's defense is allowing about 4.1 receptions per game to opposing tight ends this year.”
Travis Kelce caught 9 passes in the Chiefs' 22-19 loss to the Broncos, over 4.5. (9 receptions, 91 yds, 1 TD)
“One and a half touchdown passes for Bo Nix. He's been struggling. This is also going to be less.”
Bo Nix threw 0 passing touchdowns in the Broncos' 22-19 win over the Chiefs, under 1.5. (295 pass yds, 0 pass TD, 0 INT)
“92.5 rushing yards for Jonathan Taylor against Atlanta. What do you think? More.”
IND 31, ATL 25 — Jonathan Taylor: 244 rushing_yards vs over 92.5; covers. (Jonathan Taylor: 244 rushing_yards)
“How about 96.5 receiving yards for JSN against Arizona? This is going to be less.”
SEA 44, ARI 22 — Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 93 receiving_yards vs under 96.5; covers. (Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 93 receiving_yards)
“Caleb Williams against the Giants. One and a half touchdown passes for the former number one pick. What do you think? Less.”
Caleb Williams threw only 1 passing touchdown in the Bears' 24-20 win over the Giants, under 1.5. (20/36, 220 pass yds, 1 pass TD; 8 carries, 63 rush yds, 1 rush TD)
“Chargers are a two-and-a-half-point favorite. Who you got? Chargers. If the Steelers are coming all the way across the country, you're telling me I don't even have to lay the full three points for home field in this matchup? I'll take L.A.”
LAC 25, PIT 10 — Los Angeles Chargers margin +15 vs line -2.5; covers.
“His number on passing yards is 275. What do you think? We're going to go more.”
BUF 28, KC 21 — Patrick Mahomes: 250 passing_yards vs over 275.5; busts. (Patrick Mahomes: 250 passing_yards)
“How about James Cook's 75 rushing yards? This is going to be more as well.”
James Cook rushed for 114 yards on 27 carries in Buffalo's 28-21 win over Kansas City, clearing the 75.5 line. (Cook: 27 car, 114 yds (BUF 28, KC 21))
“And how about Josh Allen? One and a half passing touchdowns is the prop. Yeah, you'll notice the theme here more.”
Josh Allen threw only 1 passing touchdown in the Bills' 28-21 win over the Chiefs, under 1.5 (he added 2 rushing TDs). (23/26, 273 pass yds, 1 pass TD; 2 rush TD)
“Wedged in between is a game where you're laying 13 and a half against a Carolina team whose defense has improved this year. Dead last in the NFL last season, 21st in defensive EPA this year. Carolina's not great, don't get me wrong, but they're feisty enough to stay inside the number. All right, give me one from college.”
GB 13, CAR 16 — Carolina Panthers margin +3 vs line +13.5; covers.
“We're going to go with the Texas Longhorns. The number's getting away from this year. It's now up to three and a half, so this has got to be a smaller wager.”
TEX 34, VAN 31 — Texas Longhorns margin +3 vs line -3.5; busts.
“We're going to go with Yamamoto and the Dodgers here at minus 135. This is roughly the same price we got with Yamamoto in game two in Toronto when he absolutely shoved against this Blue Jays lineup.”
TOR 1, LAD 3 — Los Angeles Dodgers won; moneyline covers.
“Jalen Hurts threw it all over the place last week against Minnesota. His total is 204 and a half passing yards. What do you think? We'll play more.”
Eagles beat the Giants 38-20 (Oct 26, 2025, Week 8); Jalen Hurts threw for only 179 yards, well under the 204.5 line. (Hurts: 15/20, 179 yds, 4 TD (PHI 38, NYG 20))
“How about the rookie on the other side? Combined yards, so passing and rushing for Jackson Dart, 240 and a half. This is more as well.”
Jaxson Dart had 193 passing + 17 rushing yards (210 combined) in the Giants-Eagles game, under 240.5. (14/24, 193 pass yds, 1 pass TD; 6 carries, 17 rush yds, 1 rush TD)
“Eagles have also really struggled running the football. Saquon Barkley doesn't have a hundred yard day yet. His total is 80 and a half yards. Where do we go? Less.”
Saquon Barkley ran for 150 yards on 14 carries in the Eagles' 38-20 win over the Giants, blowing well past the 80.5 under. (Barkley: 14 car, 150 yds, 1 rush TD (PHI 38, NYG 20))
“Number one, Saints plus four and a half over the Buccaneers”
Buccaneers routed the Saints 23-3 (MNF, Oct 27, 2025); New Orleans lost by 20, failing to cover +4.5. (Final: Buccaneers 23, Saints 3)
“Very simply put, week three, Jets are in Tampa Bay facing the Bucs. They're catching six and a half. Now they're in Cincinnati, and they're catching six and a half. It is a third-worst defense in the NFL. I like the Flacco story, but it's too many points. Give me the Jets.”
CIN 38, NYJ 39 — New York Jets margin +1 vs line +6.5; covers.
“South Carolina plus 11 and a half over Alabama”
SC 22, ALA 29 — South Carolina Gamecocks margin -7 vs line +11.5; covers.
“I think ultimately the play would be Baltimore. This is the best price you can get them all season, +130 to win the division.”
The Pittsburgh Steelers won the AFC North in 2025 (clinching with a win over Baltimore in the finale), not the Ravens. (Steelers won AFC North; Ravens did not)
“Beginning in Kansas City, Rasheed Rice is back. Will he be better than ever? His total is 61.5 receiving yards. What do you think? Going more, Patrick Mahomes is going to want to get him involved”
KC 31, LV 0 — Rashee Rice: 42 receiving_yards vs over 61.5; busts. (Rashee Rice: 42 receiving_yards)
“Cam Scadaboo is the most popular man in New York. His total is 55.5 rushing yards this weekend, more or less. We're going less.”
Cam Skattebo rushed for 60 yards (16 carries) against Denver, over the 55.5 line, so the under loses. (Skattebo 16 car, 60 rush yds)
“All right. And then how about Jalen Hurts? That struggling Eagles offense, 209.5 passing yards more or less. This is less. I thought it would be closer to maybe 190, 192, close to 210. We're definitely going to play the under here.”
MIN 22, PHI 28 — Jalen Hurts: 326 passing_yards vs under 209.5; busts. (Jalen Hurts: 326 passing_yards)
“Now, Commanders and Cowboys, huge matchup in the NFC East. The Commanders are one-and-a-half-point road favorite. Who you got? We like the Cowboys, but be careful. The injury report's going to tell a lot as we work our way through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. C.D. Lamb should be back for the Dallas offense. More on that in a bit. But this is about the spot for Washington. Short week off a Monday night game, traveling to a divisional opponent. You got an average to below-average defense. And, again, you have injuries at the wide receiver position. Enter C.D. Lamb, who's expected to return for a Dallas offense. that has been extraordinary this year. Defense has been the problem, but when you factor in the spread and the situation for Washington, Dallas is the play.”
DAL 44, WSH 22 — Dallas Cowboys margin +22 vs line +1.5; covers.
“Okay, next game, Joe Fortenbaugh. We've got Falcons and 49ers. San Francisco, a two-and-a-half point favorite. Who you got? Thank you for asking me about this game with Harry Douglas on the show. We have the Niners.”
SF 20, ATL 10 — San Francisco 49ers margin +10 vs line -2.5; covers.
“This is where you buy in on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Everyone's checking out on them now. You're going to get them at home, extra rest, three and a half points.”
This Packers-at-Steelers matchup only occurred once in 2025, on Oct. 26 (Week 8) — Pittsburgh had no Week 7 home game (they played at Cincinnati on Oct. 16). Green Bay won 35-25, so the Steelers lost outright by 10, failing to cover +3.5. (Packers 35, Steelers 25 (Steelers +3.5 fails))
“Ooh, Kentucky, plus 13-and-a-half against Texas”
UK 13, TEX 16 — Kentucky Wildcats margin -3 vs line +13.5; covers.
“Under seven and a half runs, Seattle and Toronto. It's been an offensive explosion the last few games. Market's readjusted. Now we take advantage by going the other way.”
SEA 6, TOR 2 — Combined 8; under 7.5 busts.
“Lions Chiefs. Jared Goff, one and a half passing touchdowns. What do we say? We're going to go less here. Chiefs have allowed this to happen only one time in five games this season.”
Jared Goff threw 2 passing touchdowns in the Lions' 30-17 loss to the Chiefs, over 1.5. (203 pass yds, 2 pass TD)
“All right, the Jameer Gibbs rushing prop is 69 and a half yards. What do we say? This is going to be less as well. Taylor Decker injury on the offensive line is going to loom large here.”
KC 30, DET 17 — Jahmyr Gibbs: 65 rushing_yards vs under 69.5; covers. (Jahmyr Gibbs: 65 rushing_yards)
“All right so that the Detroit offense How about Mr Mahomes 260 and a half passing yards This is going to be a more. Patrick Mahomes is number two in the NFL right now in passing attempts per game.”
KC 30, DET 17 — Patrick Mahomes: 257 passing_yards vs over 260.5; busts. (Patrick Mahomes: 257 passing_yards)
“So as we look at Ravens and Chiefs, I'm looking at Baltimore, a two-and-a-half-point road favorite in this game. What are you thinking? Anything short of the key number of three, we're playing Baltimore here.”
KC 37, BAL 20 — Baltimore Ravens margin -17 vs line -2.5; busts.
“I think there's something to what you're thinking about, Greeny. I'm kidding. We're laying the six-and-a-half for Green Bay here. Anything inside of the key number is going to be the play. You guys are talking about what's the path to the cover for Dallas. The strength is supposed to be the offense, right? But if you remove C.D. Lamb from the equation, they could barely move the ball against Chicago's defense. How are they going to move the ball with consistent success against Green Bay's defense, which is one of the best in the NFL. Now let's flip it around. Green Bay struggled offensively a bit at times. You got the Dallas defense. 900 passing yards allowed. The absolute worst pass defense in the league. To put that in perspective, Seattle's played four games. They've only given up 910 passing yards. We'll lay the six and a half.”
DAL 40, GB 40 — Green Bay Packers margin +0 vs line -6.5; busts.
“And now that it's down to two and a half, I would play Georgia.”
UGA 21, ALA 24 — Georgia Bulldogs margin -3 vs line -2.5; busts.
“I like LSU plus the point and a half.”
MISS 24, LSU 19 — LSU Tigers margin -5 vs line +1.5; busts.
“Penn State minus a three and a half.”
PSU 24, ORE 30 — Penn State Nittany Lions margin -6 vs line -3.5; busts.
“We're going to begin with the Cleveland Browns catching 7.5 against the Green Bay Packers.”
CLE 13, GB 10 — Cleveland Browns margin +3 vs line +7.5; covers.
“Tennessee plus 4.5 against Indianapolis.”
TEN 20, IND 41 — Tennessee Titans margin -21 vs line +4.5; busts.
“catching six and a half points here with New York.”
TB 29, NYJ 27 — New York Jets margin -2 vs line +6.5; covers.
“Let's start with Dak Prescott's total, 264.5 passing yards. Joey, going more or less? More. Prescott's been in the league since 2016.”
CHI 31, DAL 14 — Dak Prescott: 251 passing_yards vs over 264.5; busts. (Dak Prescott: 251 passing_yards)
“Okay, and then how about on the other side then? If the Bears are going to keep it competitive, is Caleb Williams going to throw for more than a one-and-a-half passing touchdown? This is also a more.”
Caleb Williams threw 4 touchdown passes in the Bears' 31-14 Week 3 win over Dallas, clearing the 1.5 line. (Williams Week 3: 19/28, 298 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT)
“And then finally, Mike T just touched on it. The total in this one is huge. 50 and a half. Which way do we go? More, but it feels so easy.”
CHI 31, DAL 14 — Combined 45; over 50.5 busts.
“Rams, because it's about the number three-and-a-half.”
Eagles beat Rams 33-26 (Jordan Davis blocked-FG return TD as time expired). Rams lost by 7, failing to cover +3.5. (Final: Eagles 33, Rams 26.)
“The Bills win it. They go to 3-0. What are you looking at with them? Their adjusted season win total is 13.5, which is the over-under how many wins they'll have this year. I'd play under. The numbers gotten out of control. It was 11 and a half to start the season. They beat the Ravens. We move it up to 12 and a half. All right. That's a coin flip game. But then you beat the Jets and you beat the Dolphins and we move it up again to 13 and a half in the four years since we went to a 17 game regular season. We've had five teams get to 14 wins. A lot needs to go right. We're going to play the under there.”
Bills finished the 2025 regular season 12-5, under the 13.5 win total. (12-5 regular season record)
“Chargers minus two and a half over the Broncos”
LAC 23, DEN 20 — Los Angeles Chargers margin +3 vs line -2.5; covers.
“We'll lay the seven and a half with Oklahoma, but it's a smaller wager because we move through the key number of seven.”
OU 24, AUB 17 — Oklahoma Sooners margin +7 vs line -7.5; busts.
“Pepto-Bismol game of the week, because this isn't going to be easy. We'll take the Gators plus the 9.5.”
MIA 26, FLA 7 — Florida Gators margin -19 vs line +9.5; busts.
“Again, we've got the Rams, a three-and-a-half point. Let's see where he's going. Get him out of here. We've got the Rams. Going Rams, we'll take the points.”
Eagles beat Rams 33-26 (Jordan Davis blocked-FG return TD as time expired). Rams lost by 7, failing to cover +3.5. (Final: Eagles 33, Rams 26.)
- Jared Goff over 249.5 passing yards closed +246.5 · CLV -3 won
- Saquon Barkley under 88.5 rushing yards closed +86.5 · CLV +2 won
- George Pickens under 53.5 receiving yards lost
“Joe, Jared Goff facing the Bears. 249.5 passing yards is the total. Do we go more or less? More. The number is cheap because of the performance we saw last week. Golf and the Lions look terrible, but that's more a byproduct of playing on the road at Green Bay. This is at home against a Chicago defense that's banged up in the secondary. Golf indoors versus golf outdoors is the difference. Indoors last year he averaged 280 passing yards per game. We're going more. All right, Joe, we talked about Saquon Barkley briefly before. Has the showdown with the Chiefs this weekend more or less 88.5 rushing yards? Less. As great as the Eagles looked in the Super Bowl last year, Barkley carried the ball 25 times for only 57 yards. Why? Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's game plan, sell out against Barkley. He is the engine that makes the offense go. I think he does the same thing here, especially knowing A.J. Brown is not 100%. And then finally, Cowboys-Giants. George Pickens, not really that involved in week one. His total is 53.5 receiving yards. You go more or less? Less. As bad as the Giants looked in week one, I still think they have a decent defense. In case in point, against Washington, the leading receiver was Debo Samuel with about 77 yards. If you're getting a wide receiver involved in this game, it's going to be C.D. Lamb, who had that big drop late in the game. I think you want to get him going. The Giants should be able to run the ball here so you can keep Dallas' offense off the field. All right, so let's recap again. We've got Goff and the over. We've got the under on Barkley. We have the under on George Pickens. We've made those a parlay. They're on ESPN Bet Sportsbook right now at plus 541.”
Parlay busts: Jared Goff over 249.5 passing yards +249.5 — won; Saquon Barkley under 88.5 rushing yards +88.5 — won; George Pickens under 53.5 receiving yards +53.5 — lost.
“We going to buy low on the Gators getting more than a touchdown at plus 7”
LSU 20, FLA 10 — Florida Gators margin -10 vs line +7; busts.
“We're going to play Georgia minus the 3.5.”
TENN 41, UGA 44 — Georgia Bulldogs margin +3 vs line -3.5; busts.
“which is why we get Terrence Crawford at an excellent price. We're betting TC plus 140.”
Terence Crawford defeated Canelo Alvarez by unanimous decision (116-112, 115-113, 115-113) on Sept 13, 2025, to win the undisputed super middleweight titles. (Crawford UD12 over Alvarez)
“We'll take Kansas City plus the point and a half.”
KC 17, PHI 20 — Kansas City Chiefs margin -3 vs line +1.5; busts.
“We lay the 6.5 with Detroit.”
DET 52, CHI 21 — Detroit Lions margin +31 vs line -6.5; covers.
“Give me Seattle plus the three and a half.”
PIT 17, SEA 31 — Seattle Seahawks margin +14 vs line +3.5; covers.
- Patrick Mahomes under 243.5 passing yards closed +253.5 · CLV -10
- Travis Kelce under 48.5 receiving yards closed +50.5 · CLV -2
- Justin Herbert under 1.5 touchdown passes
“The total here is 243.5 passing yards for Patrick Mahomes. Joe, do we go more or less? Less. Last year's two meetings were decided by seven points and two points respectively. In those games, Mahomes threw for 245 and 210. Why? The Chargers won the time of possession battle. They want to run the football. They want to keep Mahomes off the field. They're better equipped to do that this year with Omari and Hampton at running back. I think Mahomes goes under here. Remember, no Rishi Rice. How about the most famous football player on planet Earth? Travis Kelsey, 48 and a half receiving yards, more or less. Less. The Chargers are really good defending the opposing tight end position, but this is more about Kelsey. He's going to be 36 years old next month, and the numbers are in decline. Not so much the targets and receptions. The opportunities are there, but the yards per route run, the yards after catch, the big plays aren't. That's what's going to hurt them. And then finally on the other side, Justin Herbert, beginning the season, one and a half touchdown passes is the number. Less here as well.”
All three unders missed in Chargers' 27-21 win over Chiefs in Sao Paulo: Mahomes threw for 258 yards (line 243.5) and Herbert threw 3 TD passes (line 1.5), both exceeding their lines. (Mahomes 258 pass yds; Herbert 3 pass TD)
“and bet over 7.5 wins.”
Cowboys finished 7-9-1, under the 7.5-win line. (Cowboys 2025: 7-9-1, missed playoffs)
“ESPN Bet Sportsbook. So, Joe, let's start with Colorado. We were just talking about Jadour Sanders. Dion, of course, still there. Their total is five and a half wins. What do you think? Less, but I wouldn't be aggressive with it.”
Colorado finished 3-9 in 2025, comfortably under the 5.5-win line. (Colorado 2025: 3-9 (1-8 Big 12))
“at least according to the preseason poll, Texas. Their total, Joe, at ESPN Bet Sportsbook is 10.5 wins. You go more or less? less and this is one where i'd get aggressive 10 and a half remember bowl games don't count”
Texas went 10-2 in the regular season (10-3 with bowl win), under the 10.5-win line either way. (Texas 2025: 10-2 regular season, won Citrus Bowl vs Michigan (10-3 final))
“A lot of people very high on Clemson this year, Joe. Their total at ESPN Bet Sportsbook is nine and a half wins. What do you think? More.”
Clemson went 7-5 in the regular season (7-6 with bowl loss), well under the 9.5-win line. (Clemson 2025: 7-5 regular season, lost Pinstripe Bowl 10-22 to Penn State)
“but the Sixers are 11-1 to win the Eastern Conference.”
The Philadelphia 76ers did not win the 2025-26 Eastern Conference; they were swept by the New York Knicks in the conference semifinals, and the Knicks went on to win the East and the 2026 NBA Finals. (Knicks swept 76ers in East semis; Knicks won East, then beat Spurs 4-1 in Finals)
“Yankees A's play tonight. The unders eight and a half.”
NYY 3, ATH 0 — Combined 3; under 8.5 cashes.
“Toporia's method of victory to win by knockout, technical knockout, or DQ is minus 185.”
Ilia Topuria knocked out Charles Oliveira via KO (punches) at 2:27 of Round 1 at UFC 317 to win the vacant lightweight title. (Topuria def. Oliveira by KO, Round 1, 2:27)
“Tyrese Halliburton not showing up in the first quarter. That's how you bet it. Under three and a half points, under one and a half rebounds.”
IND 108, OKC 91 — Tyrese Haliburton: 14 points vs under 3.5; busts. (Tyrese Haliburton: 14 points)
“Under three and a half points, under one and a half rebounds. Greeny, even when healthy, he's struggling in a big way in the first quarter. Averaging less than three points per game. Averaging less than two rebounds per game in the first.”
IND 108, OKC 91 — Tyrese Haliburton: 1 rebounds vs under 1.5; covers. (Tyrese Haliburton: 1 rebounds)
“Joe. Jump in here really quick. Joe Fortenball with a very quick best bet. What do we like from the travelers. Deacon Bradley, 33-1 to win, top 10 plus 300.”
Keegan Bradley won the 2025 Travelers Championship outright, beating Tommy Fleetwood by one shot with a birdie on the 72nd hole. (Bradley finished -15 (265), one shot ahead of Fleetwood and Henley at -14)
“Deacon Bradley, 33-1 to win, top 10 plus 300. It's a limited field here, fewer than 80 golfers the key.”
Keegan Bradley won the 2025 Travelers Championship outright, which is also a top-10 finish. (Bradley finished 1st at -15 (265))
“Joe, Jalen Williams tonight, 23 and a half points. What do you think? Less.”
IND 108, OKC 91 — Jalen Williams: 16 points vs under 23.5; covers. (Jalen Williams: 16 points)
“Benedict Matherin's total is 11.5 points. Which way do we go? More.”
IND 108, OKC 91 — Bennedict Mathurin: 2 points vs over 11.5; busts. (Bennedict Mathurin: 2 points)
“His total is 15.5 points plus assists, more or less? More.”
IND 108, OKC 91 — T.J. McConnell: 27 pra vs over 15.5; covers. (T.J. McConnell: 27 pra)
“Best bet Game 5. Best bet Game 5, Panthers. All right? I like the price, even money.”
EDM 2, FLA 5 — Florida Panthers won; moneyline covers.
“Let's play a game of More or Less. SGA, points, rebounds, assists, 47.5, More or Less. That would be a more.”
IND 104, OKC 111 — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 38 pra vs over 47.5; busts. (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 38 pra)
“Number two Jalen Williams Points and assists 26 and a half more. This is another one where I would look to the over.”
IND 104, OKC 111 — Jalen Williams: 37 pra vs over 26.5; covers. (Jalen Williams: 37 pra)
“Tyrese Halliburton, 17 and a half points, more or less. This is less.”
IND 104, OKC 111 — Tyrese Haliburton: 18 points vs under 17.5; busts. (Tyrese Haliburton: 18 points)
“When it comes to the game itself, let's go with Oklahoma City minus the 9.5 in that game.”
OKC 110, IND 111 — Oklahoma City Thunder margin -1 vs line -9.5; busts.
“But where we're at with this is you want to make two bets against Halliburton because that isn't factored into the pricing. Nine and a half assists is based on what he's done all year. Season average, this is a step up in class.”
OKC 110, IND 111 — Tyrese Haliburton: 6 assists vs under 9.5; covers. (Tyrese Haliburton: 6 assists)
“Season average, this is a step up in class. 27 and a half points plus assists, that's based on what he's done all year. This is a step up in class. That's what you want to find. Pricing based on things that don't have very much to do at all with what we're seeing in this game. OKC is not the average. It's priced as the average. That's why we play the under. That's the value.”
OKC 110, IND 111 — Tyrese Haliburton: 30 pra vs under 27.5; busts. (Tyrese Haliburton: 30 pra)
“Joe Fortenbaugh, one-and-a-half threes for Pascal Siakam tonight, more or less? More, because the opportunities will be there.”
OKC 110, IND 111 — Pascal Siakam: 1 threes vs over 1.5; busts. (Pascal Siakam: 1 threes)
“Now what it means for Eagles fans and the team is a different story I think when we talk about this season and beyond Joe Fortmore is wearing the Eagles jacket I know So perfect for this The line for Saquon rushing yards this year He won over 2000 a year ago. The number is 1400.5. So 1401 would put it at the over. What do you like? It's an insane number. It's an insane number. The bet would be the under.”
Saquon Barkley finished the 2025 season with 1,140 rushing yards. 1,140 < 1400.5, under won. (Saquon Barkley 2025: 1,140 rushing yards)
“I've got OKC minus nine and a half in game one. What is your preference there? History not on the side of Indiana here. I would lay the big number.”
OKC 110, IND 111 — Oklahoma City Thunder margin -1 vs line -9.5; busts.
“I would look at Oakley C minus two and a half games. No one wants to lay the minus 700 because if you get an injury or two, the whole thing goes sideways on you and it costs you a lot. But you can play the Thunder to win by two and a half games.”
Oklahoma City Thunder won the NBA Finals over the Indiana Pacers 4-3 (Game 7), a series margin of only 1 game, short of the 2.5-game cover. (Thunder def. Pacers 4-3 (Game 7: OKC 103, IND 91))
“Florida in game two, right around plus 110.”
Florida beat Edmonton 5-4 in Stanley Cup Final Game 2 (June 6, 2025) to even the series. (Panthers 5, Oilers 4)
“And then for the series, I would bet Florida at the adjusted price, plus 185.”
Florida Panthers defeated the Edmonton Oilers 4-2 to win the 2025 Stanley Cup Final, their second consecutive championship. (Panthers def. Oilers 4-2 (Game 6: FLA 5, EDM 1))
“Pacers big. I'd lay the three-and-a-half.”
IND 125, NY 108 — Indiana Pacers margin +17 vs line -3.5; covers.
“Give me the Panthers at minus 105.”
Edmonton beat Florida 4-3 in overtime in Stanley Cup Final Game 1 (June 4, 2025) on a Draisaitl power-play winner. (Oilers 4, Panthers 3 (OT))
“[46:05] I think that's the best bet. [46:06] I saw him at plus 550. [46:07] You give me 7-1, I'm going to make the play. [46:09] It feels like it's their year. [46:10] You guys just touched on it. [46:11] Number one, the schedule. [46:12] Second easiest in the NFL. [46:14] How often does a team with a 13-4 record [46:16] that went to the AFC Championship game [46:18] get the second easiest schedule in the NFL? [46:21] Greeny, all due respect, you know the division's [46:23] not going to offer any resistance whatsoever. [46:25] So worst case, they're hosting a playoff game in the opening round. [46:28] But the key to this entire analysis, Kansas City is no longer gatekeeping the AFC. [46:32] Very few people will agree with that. [46:34] You heard everything from Tannenbaum. [46:36] You heard everything from Graz. [46:37] The one thing you didn't hear, 17 straight wins in one score games, 12-0 last year. [46:42] That's going to fall off. [46:43] And when it does, they won't be in the way of the Bills. [46:45] This is the year they get it done.”
Buffalo Bills did not win the AFC; they lost to the Denver Broncos 33-30 in the Divisional Round, and the Broncos lost the AFC Championship to the New England Patriots. (Bills eliminated in Divisional Round, Jan 17, 2026 (lost 33-30 to Denver))
“Take out your pitching wedge. Swing it easy. Oklahoma City minus three and a half.”
MIN 143, OKC 101 — Oklahoma City Thunder margin -42 vs line -3.5; busts.
“Carl Anthony Towns over 23 points”
NY 109, IND 114 — Karl-Anthony Towns: 20 points vs over 23; busts. (Karl-Anthony Towns: 20 points)
“How are you looking at the total tonight, which is 225.5? Big total. I'd still play the over here.”
NY 109, IND 114 — Combined 223; over 225.5 busts.
“Tyrese Halliburton to win Eastern Conference Finals MVP is minus 120.”
Pascal Siakam won 2025 Eastern Conference Finals MVP as the Pacers beat the Knicks in 6 games; Haliburton did not win it. (ECF MVP: Pascal Siakam (31 pts in Game 6 clincher))
“Joe, I just need you to clarify. Are you taking the Pacers to cover? or are you taking them to win? Which one? Which one? All right. I'm going to do both. I would do both here. The five and a half is obvious.”
NY 109, IND 114 — Indiana Pacers margin +5 vs line +5.5; covers.
“Joe, I just need you to clarify. Are you taking the Pacers to cover? or are you taking them to win? Which one? Which one? All right. I'm going to do both. I would do both here. The five and a half is obvious. That goes without saying when you going to pick them to win You talk about the money line plus 210 I like that price as well I would not play the Knicks on the money line I understand the reason for the bounce back tonight I think the Knicks are better as the hunter than the hunted”
NY 109, IND 114 — Indiana Pacers won; moneyline covers.
“The over-under set at 2.5. The under, interestingly enough, plus 115. So how many games do we see Oklahoma City losing the rest of the way? I'd be looking at the under here. Teddy Atlas, the famous boxing trainer, once said, when you become a champion, you instantly become 30% better. It's about clearing this mental hurdle and finding another level to your game. The Thunder haven't won a championship yet, but after going through the darkness of a seven-game series and winning against Denver, I think they've unlocked another level. I don't see them losing three or more times the rest of the way. I bet the under there.”
At pick time Thunder led Timberwolves 2-0; OKC lost only Game 3 the rest of the way before winning the series 4-1 in Game 5, so Thunder had 1 more loss (under 2.5). (Rest-of-series: Thunder went 2-1 in Games 3-5 (lost G3, won G4, won G5))
“Let's start with OG Ananobi going over 14 and a half points.”
NY 119, BOS 81 — OG Anunoby: 23 points vs over 14.5; covers. (OG Anunoby: 23 points)
“Let's look at rebounds. Drew Holiday over four and a half.”
NY 119, BOS 81 — Jrue Holiday: 4 rebounds vs over 4.5; busts. (Jrue Holiday: 4 rebounds)
“Let play the next minus two and a half in this game tonight First time they been a favorite in this series And for good reason 93 total games played this year Game five against the Celtics was their worst shooting performance of all 93 games 35 That not happening again Derek White”
NY 119, BOS 81 — New York Knicks margin +38 vs line -2.5; covers.
“The commander's total is nine and a half wins. Fortinball, which way do we go? I would say less here.”
Commanders finished 2025 season 5-12, under the 9.5 line. (5-12 regular season record)
“Joe, the Giants' win total is just five and a half. Can we go more or less? We go more.”
Giants finished 2025 season 4-13, under the 5.5 line. (4-13 regular season record)
“I thought they had a great draft all the way around One more win total for you here Joe The Steeler total is at eight and a half What do you think I go less because there two realities here right Reality one”
Steelers finished 2025 season 10-7, over the 8.5 line. (10-7 regular season record)
“Tonight, I am gonna lay the three with Minnesota over the Lakers. Sorry, Canty, but you probably know that I'm right here.”
MIN 116, LAL 104 — Minnesota Timberwolves margin +12 vs line -3; covers.
“I like Houston tonight. Specifically I like Steph Curry within the scoring prop to go under 25 and a half points”
HOU 109, GS 94 — Stephen Curry: 20 points vs under 25.5; covers. (Stephen Curry: 20 points)
“We're going to start with the Rockets minus the three here. Minus the three and a half”
HOU 109, GS 94 — Houston Rockets margin +15 vs line -3.5; covers.
“Ten and a half points. This all comes down to pricing. Game one, Boston was a 12-point favorite. Now you're telling me Jason Tatum is doubtful worth of wrist injury and might not play. We've only moved the spread one and a half points. This gambit, it's all about finding value, like you with that haircut. Value, okay? Ten and a half is the opportunity. We're taking the magic tonight.”
BOS 109, ORL 100 — Orlando Magic margin -9 vs line +10.5; covers.
“Knicks, Pistons, tomorrow. Now I want to do the Knicks. All right. I like the Knicks minus the one and a half.”
DET 116, NY 118 — New York Knicks margin +2 vs line -1.5; covers.
“Men's side, Saturday night, best bet, Florida-Auburn. Auburn plus the two and a half.”
AUB 73, FLA 79 — Auburn Tigers margin -6 vs line +2.5; busts.
“On the women's side, best bet, Texas, South Carolina. Low scoring game, under 124.5.”
South Carolina beat Texas 74-57 in the Women's Final Four; combined 131 points sailed well over the 124.5 total. (Final: South Carolina 74, Texas 57 (131 total))
“And then finally tonight, Connecticut and UCLA. As great as UConn has been this season, 7.5 is too many points”
UConn routed UCLA 85-51 in the Women's Final Four, a 34-point margin that blew well past UCLA +7.5. (Final: UConn 85, UCLA 51)
“do see an opportunity with Houston at five And a half.”
DUKE 67, HOU 70 — Houston Cougars margin +3 vs line +5.5; covers.
“And let's start with the first game of the night, Michigan State, Ole Miss. Tom Izzo, Spartans, three-and-a-half-point favorites. Joe, where are you looking here? Laying the points with Sparty for two key reasons.”
MSU 73, OLE MISS 70 — Michigan State margin +3 vs line -3.5; busts.
“Michigan State forward Jackson Kohler over 6.5 rebounds. Now, we already talked about how much Ole Miss struggles on the glass. Kohler's averaging 7.5 rebounds per game this season”
Jaxon Kohler recorded just 2 rebounds (0 points, 18 minutes) in Michigan State's 73-70 Sweet 16 win over Ole Miss -- well under the 6.5 line. (2 REB, 0 PTS, 18 MIN)
“Okay last game we got the number one seed Houston taking on Purdue Scoring might be hard to come by You know Houston can get after you defensively Over, under, listed at 131.5. What do you think, Joe? The full game under is worth a look. I'm going to shrink this to the first half, opening 20 minutes to go under 61.5 points.”
HOU 29, PUR 31 (1H) — First half combined 60 (Purdue 31, Houston 29 at halftime); under 61.5 hits.
“Of course, the Spartans, three and a half point favorite tonight. Who ya got? Michigan State minus the points.”
Michigan State 73, Ole Miss 70 — Michigan State margin +3 vs line -3.5; busts (won by less than the spread).
“Joe, who you got there? I like Kentucky plus the four and a half here.”
TENN 78, UK 65 — Kentucky Wildcats margin -13 vs line +4.5; busts.
“Who you got there? Michigan plus the 8.5 or 9. Smaller bet because Auburn could erupt at any moment.”
AUB 78, MICH 65 — Michigan Wolverines margin -13 vs line +8.5; busts.
“Right now, ESPN bet is the Yankees at plus 170 to miss the playoffs. Joe, what do you think? I'd go ahead and bet that.”
Yankees made the 2025 playoffs (94-68, won Wild Card Series over Boston before losing to Toronto in the ALDS), so they did not miss the postseason. (Yankees finished 94-68, lost ALDS to Blue Jays 3-1)
“ESPN Bet has their over-under win total. 82 and a hook. Which way are you going? This is an under bet. It opened 83 and a half. It immediately took under money and for good reason.”
Royals finished 2025 regular season 82-80 (82 wins); under 82.5 covers. (KC finished 82-80 in 2025)
“Blake Snell to lead Major League Baseball in strikeouts is priced at 16 to 1. I like that opportunity there, all right?”
Garrett Crochet led MLB in strikeouts in 2025 (255 K), not Blake Snell. (2025 MLB strikeout leader: Garrett Crochet, 255 K)
“of the night. Alabama and BYU. The Tide are favored by 5.5. Joe, which team do you like and why? I'll take the Cougs plus the points here.”
ALA 113, BYU 88 — BYU Cougars margin -25 vs line +5.5; busts.
“Yeah, the Arizona team total is 72.5, so this is a bet on how many points Arizona will score, over or under 72.5. I'd go under.”
DUKE 100, ARIZ 93 — Arizona 93 points; under 72.5 busts.
“Texas A&M is favored by seven and a half points. Yale won a 13 versus four game last year. Which way are you going? I'm going to go with Yale here plus the points.”
TA&M 80, YALE 71 — Yale Bulldogs margin -9 vs line +7.5; busts.
“The total is set at 154.5. Joe, what do you like in this game? Money's been flowing on the over. We're following the money over 154.5.”
PUR 75, HPU 63 — Combined 138; over 154.5 busts.
“the Big Ten tournament champion is Michigan. They're only a two-and-a-half-point favorite against UC San Diego. Joe, are you thinking upset? Hold on for a second here, Greeny. I'm getting some breaking news. Hey, Schefter, according to sources, Michigan going down in this one, my friend. Brutal spot for your Wolverines.”
MICH 68, UCSD 65 — UC San Diego Tritons lost; moneyline busts.
“the better bet that I found was will the titans stay at the first pick? Which team will make the first pick? That was minus one seventy, minus one seventy five is where I played it. That's the one I hammered.”
The Titans kept the No. 1 overall pick and selected QB Cam Ward, cashing the -170 ticket.
“The Lakers have won 18 of their last 21 games, and they're a six-and-a-half-point dog in Boston on Saturday night. Doesn't seem right. Big red flag. I think the Celtics are the play, and Bobby Marks just drilled the handicap.”
BOS 111, LAL 101 — Boston Celtics margin +10 vs line -6.5; covers.
“They're a seven-and-a-half point dog tonight. We'll lay it with the Clippers.”
LAC 105, NY 95 — LA Clippers margin +10 vs line -7.5; covers.
“Lakers-Celtics, best bet. What do you got? Great promotion on behalf of both Bobby and yourself, Graz. I would lay the six and a half with the Celtics here.”
BOS 111, LAL 101 — Boston Celtics margin +10 vs line -6.5; covers.
“I'd look to the Tar Heels plus the 11.5. Rivalry game at home.”
UNC 69, DUKE 82 — North Carolina Tar Heels margin -13 vs line +11.5; busts.
“Going against the fan favorite. In the main event, Magomed Ankaliev's right around minus 105 against Alex Pereira. Pereira's been an absolute beast. The fans love him. four straight wins, but those four straight wins have involved him standing at the center of the octagon and banging with the opposition that wants to trade. This guy right here, Ankolaev, he's got the blueprint for how you beat someone like Pereira. You've got to be able to wrestle. You've got to be able to get him to the mat. You've got to take him outside of his comfort zone. He actually opens a minus 170 favorite before the market moved the price. I think we're getting a very good price on Ankolaev. I'd play him at minus 105.”
Magomed Ankalaev defeated Alex Pereira by unanimous decision at UFC 313 to win the title. (Unanimous decision win for Ankalaev)
“Clippers, Lakers, what are you looking at? I would lay the four and a half with the Clippers here.”
LAL 106, LAC 102 — LA Clippers margin -4 vs line -4.5; busts.
“We're going to lay the points with the Grizzlies, which is not going to make anyone around here happy at all. [34:44] But if you remember, at the Garden on January 27th, the Knicks get throttled or throttled the Grizz by about 37. [34:50] A little bit of payback tonight. [34:51] Keep in mind, big defensive struggles for the Knicks. [34:54] And on top of that they are a dog of four or more tonight Four times this season the Knicks have been a dog of four or more In those games they are 0 losing by an average of 20 points per game [35:05] We'll lean into the trend. [35:06] We'll play the Grizzlies tonight.”
MEM 113, NY 114 — Memphis Grizzlies margin -1 vs line -4; busts.
“We'll take the Celtics minus two and a half. I think it's a cheap price.”
BOS 116, CLE 123 — Boston Celtics margin -7 vs line -2.5; busts.
“If you wanna have some action, this is fun. You lay a little juice, but it's Harrison Butcher of the Chiefs over one and a half made field goals. I think you're laying, like, minus one seventy.”
Harrison Butker made zero field goals in Super Bowl LIX as the Chiefs scored only touchdowns, so over 1.5 made field goals lost.
“We're going over 199.5 passing yards. Take a look at Jalen Hurts against man coverage this year.”
PHI 40, KC 22 — Jalen Hurts: 221 passing_yards vs over 199.5; covers. (Jalen Hurts: 221 passing_yards)
“How many passes will Patrick Mahomes complete in this game? The prop is set at 23.5. We're going to bet the over.”
Patrick Mahomes completed 21 passes in Super Bowl LIX (Eagles won 40-22), missing the 23.5 over line. (21/32, 257 yds, 3 pass TD, 2 INT)
“But the alternate receiving yards, 125 or more, pays 7-1. So why would we want to highlight A.J. Brown, right? We talked about this earlier. The Kansas City Chiefs deploy man coverage at the fifth highest rate of any defense in the NFL. Look at how A.J. Brown stacks up against man coverage compared to the rest of the league. Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, you name it, number one in yards per game. He's got a quarterback in Jalen Hurts who loves to throw the fade down the sidelines. We're probably good for two or three of those shots during the game. So I would take Brown 69.5 receiving yards over, 125.5 over.”
PHI 40, KC 22 — A.J. Brown: 43 receiving_yards vs over 125.5; busts. (A.J. Brown: 43 receiving_yards)
“How many times will Josh Allen have to throw the ball in this game? The prop is set at 31 and a half. I'd play the over.”
Josh Allen attempted 34 passes in the AFC Championship loss to the Chiefs, clearing the 31.5 over line. (22/34 passing)
“Xavier Worthy over three and a half rushing yards rushing yards. Kansas City likes the wrinkle of handing the ball to pass catchers. A pass catcher has had at least one rushing attempt in 20 of Kansas City's last 21 playoff games.”
KC 32, BUF 29 — Xavier Worthy: 16 rushing_yards vs over 3.5; covers. (Xavier Worthy: 16 rushing_yards)
“Lamar Jackson's rushing prop here, Greeny. 49 and a half yards. We're playing that over.”
BUF 27, BAL 25 — Lamar Jackson: 39 rushing_yards vs over 49.5; busts. (Lamar Jackson: 39 rushing_yards)
“but we do attack the angle of going under 41 and a half total points.”
KC 23, HOU 14 — Combined 37; under 41.5 covers.
“A.J. Brown under 69.5 receiving yards.”
PHI 28, LAR 22 — A.J. Brown: 14 receiving_yards vs under 69.5; covers. (A.J. Brown: 14 receiving_yards)
“under 55.5 total points.”
DET 31, WSH 45 — Combined 76; under 55.5 busts.
“And apply it all together and go under 51.5 total points.”
BUF 27, BAL 25 — Combined 52; under 51.5 busts.
“Another lower-scoring game, under 43-and-a-half.”
PHI 28, LAR 22 — Combined 50; under 43.5 busts.
“Baltimore over Buffalo.”
BUF 27, BAL 25 — Baltimore Ravens lost; moneyline busts.
“What is your second play of the week? I think the first half under, there's another good bet as well if you want to pile on top, 25 and a half.”
PHI 28, LAR 22 — Combined 50; under 25.5 busts.
“Playing the five with Philadelphia, they're rested.”
PHI 22, GB 10 — Philadelphia Eagles margin +12 vs line -5; covers.
“Low-scoring game, under 43.5.”
BAL 28, PIT 14 — Combined 42; under 43.5 covers.
“And then let go to tonight college game again here on ESPN 730 Eastern Ohio State Texas for a chance to play for the national championship What your best bet Laying it with the Buckeyes It sitting around six Now that Ohio State offense has been unstoppable in the playoffs so far”
TEX 14, OSU 28 — Ohio State Buckeyes margin +14 vs line -6; covers.
“Steelers-Ravens under 43.5.”
BAL 28, PIT 14 — Combined 42; under 43.5 covers.
“Buffalo minus the 8-and-a-half over Denver.”
BUF 31, DEN 7 — Buffalo Bills margin +24 vs line -8.5; covers.
“Texans Chargers under 42.5 points.”
HOU 32, LAC 12 — Combined 44; under 42.5 busts.
“the wink wink play will be the Texas team total. It's 23 and a half points. So we're betting just on how many points Texas scores, and we're going under 23 and a half points.”
TEX 14, OSU 28 — Texas scored 14 vs team total line 23.5; under cashes.
“This is going to be an under 46.5.”
PSU 24, ND 27 — Combined 51; under 46.5 busts.
“So Minnesota in the first half to go over 13.5 points.”
DET 31, MIN 9 — Minnesota first-half points: 6 vs over 13.5; busts (DET led 10-6 at half).
“I'd lay the six with the Buckeyes.”
TEX 14, OSU 28 — Ohio State Buckeyes margin +14 vs line -6; covers.
“Notre Dame minus the one and a half.”
PSU 24, ND 27 — Notre Dame Fighting Irish margin +3 vs line -1.5; covers.
“Again, the Lions are a two-and-a-half point favorite. What do you say? I like Minnesota plus the points.”
DET 31, MIN 9 — Minnesota Vikings margin -22 vs line +2.5; busts.
“Pittsburgh plus two and a half.”
PIT 17, CIN 19 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -2 vs line +2.5; covers.
“We're gonna bet that Minnesota scores more than 30 points. Over 30 and a half, that's plus one sixty. We want a nice little payout here. This Detroit defense, the last four weeks with all these injuries, historically bad.”
DET 31, MIN 9 — Minnesota scored 9 points (final DET 31, MIN 9); Over 30.5 team total loses.
“Denver plus three and a half is the bet for a couple key reasons.”
CIN 30, DEN 24 — Denver Broncos margin -6 vs line +3.5; busts.
“You want a bonus pick Bo Nix over 224 passing yards He should feast against this defense”
CIN 30, DEN 24 — Bo Nix: 219 passing_yards vs over 224; busts. (Bo Nix: 219 passing_yards)
“We'll go ahead and take the nine and a half for the Jets.”
BUF 40, NYJ 14 — New York Jets margin -26 vs line +9.5; busts.
“Over 39.5 points.”
Navy beat Army 31-13; combined 44 points cleared the 39.5 total. (Navy 31, Army 13 (44 total))
“Oregon minus the 3.5.”
Oregon beat Penn State 45-37 in the Big Ten Championship, an 8-point margin that covers -3.5. (Oregon 45, Penn State 37)
“Packers as the favorite, minus 3.5, plus 150.”
MIN 27, GB 25 — Green Bay Packers margin -2 vs line -3.5; busts.
“I'll take the three and a half with Denver in this matchup.”
CIN 30, DEN 24 — Denver Broncos margin -6 vs line +3.5; busts.
“We're betting Colorado to lead at the half, but we're betting BYU to win the full game. Pays 8-1, Graz. $10 bet returns 80 in profit.”
BYU led 20-0 at halftime (Colorado did not lead) and went on to win the Alamo Bowl 36-14; the Colorado-to-lead-at-half leg of the wager failed. (Halftime: BYU 20, Colorado 0. Final: BYU 36, Colorado 14)
“We'll play Miami in the first half, minus 2.5 points.”
Miami led Iowa State 31-28 at halftime of the Pop-Tarts Bowl, a 3-point margin that covers -2.5 (Miami went on to lose the game 42-41, but the first-half bet already settled). (Halftime: Miami 31, Iowa State 28)
“But ESPN Bet has a special bet up right now. Will Cam Ward throw at least one touchdown pass in the first quarter, plus 150? I think they come out slinging in this game. So Miami in the first half, Ward to throw a TD in the first quarter. We cash both those, and then it doesn't matter what happens.”
Cam Ward threw a 4-yard touchdown pass late in the first quarter of the Pop-Tarts Bowl (Iowa State won 42-41). (Cam Ward 4-yd TD pass to Jacolby George, 1st quarter)
“So let's go under 44.5 total points.”
BAL 34, PIT 17 — Combined 51; under 44.5 busts.
“Under 46.5 is the play.”
OSU 42, TENN 17 — Combined 59; under 46.5 busts.
“Philadelphia covers the three and a half.”
WSH 36, PHI 33 — Philadelphia Eagles margin -3 vs line -3.5; busts.
“The Chiefs are 20th in first quarter scoring. How are you going to cover two and a half points in the opening 30 minutes if you start slow? We like the Texans in the first half.”
KC 17, HOU 10 (1st half) — Houston Texans first-half margin -7 vs line +2.5; busts.
“and it pointed to the Jets plus the three. so we're going to play the Jets in this situation.”
NYJ 9, LAR 19 — New York Jets margin -10 vs line +3; busts.
“Clemson's team total, which means we're betting on how many points Clemson scores. The number is 19 and a half. We're betting under Clemson to score under 19 and a half points.”
TEX 38, CLEM 24 — Combined 62; under 19.5 busts.
“Seattle comes away as the biggest loser from last night's game. At a price of plus 105 to miss the playoffs, that's the bet to make today.”
Seattle finished 10-7 but missed the playoffs, losing the NFC West to the Rams on the strength-of-victory tiebreaker. (10-7, missed playoffs on tiebreaker)
“against man coverage than A.J. Brown. It's a great matchup. It's a great price. We're going to go over 79.5 receiving yards.”
PHI 27, PIT 13 — A.J. Brown: 110 receiving_yards vs over 79.5; covers. (A.J. Brown: 110 receiving_yards)
“best bet Steelers Eagles Joe Rock fight under 43 and a half points”
PHI 27, PIT 13 — Combined 40; under 43.5 covers.
“They focus on Josh Allen's rushing prop over 39 and a half yards.”
DET 42, BUF 48 — Josh Allen: 68 rushing_yards vs over 39.5; covers. (Josh Allen: 68 rushing_yards)
“We're going to play the Panthers minus the three.”
CAR 14, DAL 30 — Carolina Panthers margin -16 vs line -3; busts.
“Total's 39-and-a-half. You've got to be a sadist to bet the over in these games. Call me a sadist. I'll bet the over in this game.”
Navy beat Army 31-13; the combined 44 points cleared the 39.5 total. (Final: Navy 31, Army 13 (total 44))
“Houston in the first half against Miami. Spreads minus one and a half. Houston, one of the best first half teams in the NFL this year.”
HOU 20, MIA 12 — Houston Texans margin +8 vs line -1.5; covers.
“We're going to buy on the Lions here. 14.5 is the win total. We're going to play the over.”
Detroit Lions finished the 2024 season 15-2, over the 14.5 win total. (15-2 regular season record)
“I would lay the 2.5 for the Lions over the Bills.”
DET 42, BUF 48 — Detroit Lions margin -6 vs line -2.5; busts.
“Who will finish with more rushing yards this season Saquon Barkley or the New York Giants as a team That is a prop bet that is available right now I can't imagine being John Mara and seeing that bet. It's such a slap in the face, is it not? Thing is, when you handicap this, the Giants are a small underdog to win this bet, minus 105. I would take the Giants.”
Saquon Barkley rushed for an NFL-leading 2,005 yards with the Eagles in 2024, far more than the entire Giants team's rushing total, so the Giants did not out-rush him. (Barkley (Eagles): 2,005 rush yds vs Giants (team): ~1,783 rush yds)
“I think this is the buy low spot on Kansas City at a price of minus four.”
KC 19, LAC 17 — Kansas City Chiefs margin +2 vs line -4; busts.
“I'd start by laying the two and a half with Texas.”
TEX 19, UGA 22 — Texas Longhorns margin -3 vs line -2.5; busts.
“I'd also go over 49.5.”
TEX 19, UGA 22 — Combined 41; over 49.5 busts.
“I'm going to play Oregon minus the 3.5.”
ORE 45, PSU 37 — Oregon Ducks margin +8 vs line -3.5; covers.
“You don't need to overthink this smalls. Just go ahead and lay it with Ohio State over Michigan. I think that's gonna be an absolute bloodbath. If Ryan Day was gonna sneak that touchdown in against Illinois or, excuse me, Indiana late last week to try to prove a point, he's gonna wanna prove a point here. This team has put it on him for the last few years. No hardball. They're down. They're weak. The spread's sitting out there around 20 and a half, 21. I think it's an absolute bludgeoning of the highest order. Now I could throw others at you. USC plus seven and a half against Notre Dame. I think that's a slippery spot for the Irish. Auburn plus 11 and a half against Alabama, I'd look to the dog. A and M plus the five over Texas, I'd look to the dog there. Kansas has been very good to us laying the one and a half against Baylor. All plays I like, but I don't see any reason to do anything other than pull the pitching wedge out and swing it easy to try to get the ball up on the green. So we're putting for birdie. We're gonna lay the points 21 with Ohio State. I think it's an absolute bludgeoning.”
OSU 10, MICH 13 — Ohio State Buckeyes margin -3 vs line -21; busts.
“Their updated season win total is now 10.5. This is a bet where you can wager over or under 10.5 wins. I'd go under.”
Steelers finished the 2024 season 10-7, under the 10.5 win total. (10-7 regular season record)
“Let me go back to Joe Fortenbaugh. Joe with his best bets of the week. Eagles, Rams, what are you looking at in that game, Joe? First half in this game, the total is 23 and a half. We're going to bet the under.”
Halftime: PHI 13, LAR 7 (Final: LAR 20, PHI 37) — Halftime combined 20 (PHI 13–LAR 7); under 23.5 cashes.
“Cincinnati is a favorite over Pittsburgh minus one and a half I make that bet on Cincinnati”
CIN 38, PIT 44 — Cincinnati Bengals margin -6 vs line -1.5; busts.
“we take San Francisco plus the three here I think it a good buy low spot on the Niners”
GB 38, SF 10 — San Francisco 49ers margin -28 vs line +3; busts.
“We'll take Kansas plus the three. It's a great”
KU 37, COLO 21 — Kansas Jayhawks margin +16 vs line +3; covers.
“We'll lay the two touchdowns with Notre Dame. Bigger, stronger, faster.”
ND 49, ARMY 14 — Notre Dame Fighting Irish margin +35 vs line -14; covers.
“I'm going to play under 52”
OSU 38, IU 15 — Combined 53; under 52.5 busts.
“Everyone will focus on Steph Curry's points prop. That's what's popular. The edge is to be found elsewhere. Let's go rebounds over four and a half, a relatively cheap price”
NO 108, GS 112 — Stephen Curry: 7 rebounds vs over 4.5; covers. (Stephen Curry: 7 rebounds)
“I like the Chiefs. I would take the points. Don't tell the misses. I married in the Bills Mafia, so this could be very problematic for me. Now, what you're going to hear about from everyone regarding the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes as an underdog, 12-1-1 against the spread in his career. Fantastic mark. I believe he's won 11 of those outright. You can see it right there. This comes down to pricing. You and I have talked about this before. I want you to go back to last year's Super Bowl. Chiefs are the underdog to the 49ers by two. What's the spread here? Chiefs is a dog by two. Do we compare that Buffalo team to that Niners team? Because this Buffalo team, as you were just talking about, Dalton Kincaid's banged up. Amari Cooper's banged up. No key on Coleman. People riding high on Buffalo right now. Five straight wins. Those opponents, 16 and 31. Not one of them has a winning record. I think it's a sell high on Buffalo. I would play the Chiefs plus the two.”
BUF 30, KC 21 — Kansas City Chiefs margin -9 vs line +2; busts.
“Over 10.5 wins on the season. They currently sit 7-4.”
The Washington Commanders finished the 2024 season 12-5, clearing the 10.5 win total. (12-5 final record)
“What is your best bet, Chiefs Bill Sunday? Isolate the second half here. Chiefs plus one and a half.”
BUF 30, KC 21 — Kansas City Chiefs margin -9 vs line +1.5; busts.
“What your best bet Bulldogs Anything short of 10 which is a key number Right now we see 9”
UGA 31, TENN 17 — Georgia Bulldogs margin +14 vs line +9; covers.
“What is your best bet? Over five and a half rounds.”
Jake Paul defeated Mike Tyson by unanimous decision after all 8 rounds were contested, clearing the 5.5-round line. (Went the full 8 rounds (scores 80-72, 79-73, 79-73))
“Let's play Jones to win it in the third round. It pays out 6-1.”
Jon Jones defeated Stipe Miocic by TKO (spinning back kick and punches) at 4:29 of Round 3, exactly the selected finish round. (TKO, Round 3, 4:29)
“All right, you mentioned the Bears. Give me a long-term play right now on the Chicago Bears. Their current win total in Vegas is 7.5. This is a bet where you bet over 7.5 wins if you think they win 8 or more, or you go under if you think they win 7 or fewer. I would go under 7.5 wins.”
The Chicago Bears finished the 2024 season 5-12, staying under the 7.5 win total. (5-12 final record)
“What are you playing here in Bama LSU primetime on ABC Saturday night? I like LSU, but I got to get the three, okay?”
LSU 13, ALA 42 — LSU Tigers margin -29 vs line +3; busts.
“His rushing prop is 44.5 yards. I think that number is wrong. His average rushing total this year is 47 yards per game. That average is factored heavily into this prop. What's not factored heavily enough is the opponent. Last year against LSU, he rushed for 155 yards and four touchdowns. Now, LSU changed up their defense. They brought in a new coordinator, but they still struggle to defend opposing quarterbacks who can run. Two weeks ago against A&M, Marcel Reed ran for over 60 yards. Now, maybe LSU cleans up that problem, and if we do, then we end up winning the LSU bet. But I can see Jalen Milrow getting to 50 yards in this game, so I'd go over on that prop.”
LSU 13, ALA 42 — Jalen Milroe: 185 rushing_yards vs over 44.5; covers. (Jalen Milroe: 185 rushing_yards)
“Wink wink game of the week from your final boss, North Texas plus four over army.”
ARMY 14, UNT 3 — North Texas margin -11 vs line +4; busts.
“What's your best bet on Dak Prescott? Under 24.5 completions. He's averaging 23.8 on the season.”
Dak Prescott completed 18 of 24 passes (left game with hamstring injury) before Cooper Rush finished; Prescott's 18 completions stayed under the 24.5 line. (18/24, 133 yds, 1 TD (exited with injury))
“what's your best bet on Kirk Cousins? Under one and a half rushing attempts.”
Kirk Cousins had 4 rushing attempts for the Falcons against Dallas, exceeding the 1.5 line. (4 car, -11 rush yds)
“All right, I see a path to Dallas winning this game, And on top of that if they are winning or if they have the ball late Cousins isn going to be on the field kneeling the ball out So let go under one and a half rushing attempts for Kirk Cousins All right you said you see a path for Dallas winning What is your best bet on the point spread I do I take them plus the three and a half I”
ATL 27, DAL 21 — Dallas Cowboys margin -6 vs line +3.5; busts.
“LSU and Texas A&M, what is your favorite bet in that game? I agree with Feinbaum. I play LSU. We saw an onslaught of Tigers money on Thursday that drove this price from LSU plus 3.5 down to LSU plus 1. Why? Three key reasons. Number one, quarterback play. Garrett Nussmeyer against Texas A&M's cover three should be able to move the ball down the field. Number two, LSU's defense has been steadily improving throughout the course of the year. gave up only 26 to Ole Miss with an overtime frame a few weeks ago. And number three, LSU's rushing attack. They finally got Caden Durham going. That's been big for them to give some balance to Nussmeyer. So we like the LSU money line.”
TA&M 38, LSU 23 — LSU Tigers lost; moneyline busts.
“Missouri-Bama, what do you like there? Under 51.5 total points.”
ALA 34, MIZ 0 — Combined 34; under 51.5 covers.
“Texas Vandy, best bet. Give me Vanderbilt plus the points, 18.5.”
VAN 24, TEX 27 — Vanderbilt Commodores margin -3 vs line +18.5; covers.
“I like Cincinnati Greeny, but it's got to be two and a half, not three.”
CIN 17, PHI 37 — Cincinnati Bengals margin -20 vs line +2.5; busts.
“It would be the Cowboys here at plus four and a half.”
SF 30, DAL 24 — Dallas Cowboys margin -6 vs line +4.5; busts.
“Let's play LSU. LSU money flooded the market yesterday. They went from a three-and-a-half-point underdog to a one-point underdog.”
TA&M 38, LSU 23 — LSU Tigers margin -15 vs line +1; busts.
“Let's take a shot on the MVP market. Let's go with Teoscar Hernandez at 25-1.”
Freddie Freeman (Dodgers) was named 2024 World Series MVP, not Teoscar Hernandez. (Freddie Freeman: 4 HR, 12 RBI in 5-game World Series)
“Best bet is to go over 56.5 points here, Greeny. Texas defense is overvalued. Number one in the country in scoring DS. They haven't played anybody yet.”
TEX 15, UGA 30 — Combined 45; over 56.5 busts.
“Let's talk about Quinn Ewers, the quarterback of Texas. A lot of people love Arch Manning there. What do you have on him in this game? Passing yards over 258 and a half. If we see this as a high-scoring game, our props should correlate with that, and that's what this does.”
TEX 15, UGA 30 — Quinn Ewers: 211 passing_yards vs over 258.5; busts. (Quinn Ewers: 211 passing_yards)
“How about Carson Beck? What do you have on him? 20.5 completions is his prop. I would bet over that. Texas plays quarters defense, which means you can dink and dunk on them and make your way down the field.”
Beck completed 23 of 41 passes in Georgia's 30-15 win over Texas, over 20.5 completions. (23/41, 175 pass yds)
“All right, let's go through your best bets on that game. Let's start with Jalen Milrow. What do you like on him? His longest completion prop is 40 and a half yards. I would bet the over. Tennessee's defense has been getting gashed the last few weeks.”
Milroe did not complete a single pass over 20 yards in Alabama's 24-17 loss at Tennessee, under the 40.5-yard longest-completion line. (25/42, 239 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT; longest completion under 20 yds)
“Their team totals 26 and a half. That means how many points will they score? It has nothing to do with Bama. I'd bet under 26.5 points for Tennessee.”
TENN 24, ALA 17 — Tennessee scored 24; under 26.5 team total covers.
“Ultimately, we will go to college. We will play LSU plus three and a half against Ole Miss. Awful spot for Ole Miss.”
LSU 29, MISS 26 — LSU Tigers margin +3 vs line +3.5; covers.
“We're gonna go local. We're gonna go UConn in college football. We're gonna lay a big number at 17 against Temple.”
UCONN 29, TEMPLE 20 — UConn Huskies margin +9 vs line -17; busts.
“I'll give you a little bit of future play here if you want something Olympics related. Okay. France to medal. France to you're getting it anyway, Cole. You're getting it anyway. France to medals, like, plus one fifteen.”
France won the silver medal in Paris 2024 men's basketball (lost the final to USA 98-87), so the to-medal bet won.
“Northwestern plus six and a half over Utah. It's all about motivation. Utah usually plays for conference championships. I don't think they wanna be in that game.”
NU 14, UTAH 7 — Northwestern Wildcats margin +7 vs line +6.5; covers.
“Coastal Carolina plus 10 over San Jose State, Hawaii bowl. San Jose State, another team, I think, lacks the motivation.”
SJSU 14, CCU 24 — Coastal Carolina Chanticleers margin +10 vs line +10; covers.
“game number one. Georgia Southern minus three and a half over Ohio. Game opened Ohio minus two, nothing but Georgia Southern money.”
OHIO 41, GASO 21 — Georgia Southern Eagles margin -20 vs line -3.5; busts.
“New Mexico State minus three and a half over Fresno. Two teams headed in opposite directions.”
FRES 37, NMSU 10 — New Mexico State Aggies margin -27 vs line -3.5; busts.
“Jacksonville State minus two and a half over the raging Cajuns. Jacksonville State just made the jump to FBS this year.”
UL 31, JVST 34 — Jacksonville State Gamecocks margin +3 vs line -2.5; covers.
“We're gonna play under 43 points in the bears lions game. Under 43 points bears lions.”
CHI 28, DET 13 — Combined 41; under 43 covers.
“Wink wink game of the week, Texas team total over 34 and a half points.”
TEX 49, OKST 21 — Combined 70; over 34.5 covers.