Guest · 161-166 on settled picks
| League | spread | prop | total | futures | moneyline | parlay | other | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 22-31-21% | 22-24-7% | 10-12-13% | 9-6+13% | 1-1 | 0-3 | — | 64-77-13% |
| CFB | 17-18-7% | 3-2+26% | 4-7-31% | 2-1 | 0-2 | — | 0-1 | 26-31-12% |
| CBB | 22-17+8% | 0-1 | 6-4+15% | 0-5-100% | 0-1 | — | — | 28-28-5% |
| NBA | 12-6+27% | 9-12-18% | 1-1 | 2-4+16% | 1-0 | — | — | 25-23+8% |
| Other | — | 3-0 | 1-1 | 3-1 | 3-0 | — | — | 10-2+389% |
| MLB | — | 1-0 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-0 | — | — | 4-4-7% |
“[29:43] There's a chaos scenario out there. [29:44] It could happen. [29:45] To Will's point, I think one of the best bets on the board this season, [29:48] UCLA over five-and-a-half wins. [29:50] I think a lot of people are sleeping on the Bruins and the job that Chesney is going to be able to do in year one in town.”
“[18:28] But I've got Houston listed here as a team to discuss. [18:32] Love the win total over. [18:33] I understand that a lot of guys in the betting community are interested in them. [18:38] I think it the classic case of but anyone you talk to outside of betting is very worried about CJ Stroud And I think that what creates the opportunity for us This is a guy when we saw him last in the playoffs he absolutely stunk [18:51] So a lot of people think he's going to continue to stink. [18:54] He doesn't need to be great in order for us to hit 10 wins on the win total. [18:58] He doesn't need to be great in order to win that division. [19:01] If we want to make a deep run, we're going to need some competent play from him, sure. [19:05] But if he rekindles anything, given the defense he's got around him and the young receivers coming into their own, I really like the potential for this team. [19:13] This defense is absolutely filthy. [19:16] Schedule sets up pretty nice. [19:18] I'm with you on the Texans. [19:19] I am buying them. [19:20] I like the win total over nine and a half.”
“[19:38] I'll do a quick double dip. [19:40] I am pro chargers as I am pretty much every year. [19:43] And I'm anti-Patriots. [19:46] I know everyone very much likes the Patriots. [19:48] They were the number one team last year in terms of health. [19:52] A lot of people are going to focus on the schedule, [19:54] getting a little bit more challenging. [19:56] Pro fans are going to look at them and say, well, they got AJ Brown. [19:59] They're going to be a lot better. [20:00] I look at the team. [20:01] I see that how well things set up last year. [20:04] and I see how they were the healthiest team in the NFL. [20:07] That is extremely difficult to sustain year over year. [20:10] Record in one score games was outstanding. [20:12] That's difficult to sustain. [20:14] I think they come back down to earth. [20:16] Win total is 10 and a half. [20:17] That's an under I've played.”
“Joe Fortenball, the Dodgers over-under total for this season is 102.5 wins. What does the smart money say? The Dodgers can win the World Series like Buster likes without winning 103 games. I would play the under here.”
“[29:15] Joe, what is your best bet surrounding Aaron Judge? [29:18] His batting average prop this year is 291. [29:21] I'm going to play the under.”
“The biggest is Shohei Ohtani. Joe, what is our best bet on the two-way superstar? Leeds Major League Baseball on RBIs pays 14-1. Love the price for a guy who just two seasons ago had 130 RBIs and finished second in Major League Baseball.”
“We are back and we'll go back to the NFL where projected win totals have been set for each team. We're going to play a little more or less Fortinball. Let's start with Baltimore where the Ravens have more or less wins than the set 11.5, which is the most of any team in the NFL. I'm going to go less, but it's not one of my more confident plays.”
“All right, more or less for the Dolphins. They gutted everything. More or less than four and a half wins. I would go less because I don't understand the purpose of winning five.”
“Their win total, nine and a half, more or less for Peyton and Denver. I'm going less here.”
“I like the U to score in the first half tonight against Bosnia”
2-0 — The United States beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 on July 1, 2026, with Folarin Balogun scoring in the 45th minute (first half), so the U.S.-to-score-in-the-first-half prop won (ESPN match report). (Balogun goal 45'; Tillman goal 82')
“Give me something on Wemby offensively. 25-plus points, high floor in this series. His worst night was 24 points, average of 27, so we're not asking him to do too much outside of what he's already been doing.”
NY 94, SA 90 — Victor Wembanyama scored 19 points, missing the 25+ mark, as the Knicks beat the Spurs 94-90 to clinch the NBA Finals in Game 5 (ESPN box score). (Victor Wembanyama: 19 points)
“How about Dylan Harper? Six-plus rebounds. Great price here because he's coming off his worst rebounding night of the series with just four boards. But look at the other three games. Nine boards, eight boards, six boards.”
NY 94, SA 90 — Dylan Harper grabbed 5 rebounds, missing the 6+ mark, in the Knicks' series-clinching 94-90 win over the Spurs in NBA Finals Game 5 (ESPN box score). (Dylan Harper: 5 rebounds)
“And for the entire Knicks team, what's your favorite prop? Josh Hart two plus steals Nice plus money wager here for a guy who”
NY 94, SA 90 — Josh Hart recorded 0 steals, missing the 2+ mark, in the Knicks' series-clinching 94-90 win over the Spurs in NBA Finals Game 5 (ESPN box score). (Josh Hart: 0 steals)
“What is the best bet look in a game set? I like Carolina. Minus 115, good price for them on the road here.”
3-0 — Carolina Hurricanes shut out the Vegas Golden Knights 3-0 in Stanley Cup Final Game 6 on June 14, 2026, winning the series 4-2 (ESPN box score).
“Toronto plus two and a half games against Cleveland is minus 125. I'm in on that as well.”
4-3 — Cavaliers beat Raptors 114-102 in Game 7 to win the Eastern Conference first-round series 4-3; Toronto's +2.5 games line covers since 3+2.5 exceeds Cleveland's 4 wins (ESPN).
“Baseball today, actually, Corbett's on the mound. People forget about Patrick Corbin. One start this year, already got shelled. The first five over for the Brewers is two and a half runs plus 105. I'm making that play as well. That's an early afternoon game on the East Coast.”
Milwaukee scored just 1 run through five innings (Toronto also scored 1) in the Blue Jays-Brewers game; the first-five-innings over 2.5 for Milwaukee busts (ESPN box score). (Milwaukee first-five-inning runs: 1)
“Lay the one and a half with Illinois. Danny Hurley, 17 and one against the spread in his last 18 tournament games.”
71-62 — UConn beat Illinois 71-62 in the Final Four; Illinois lost outright, so Illinois -1.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“And how about the total in that game? Under 139 and a half. Two teams that play at a very slow pace.”
71-62 — UConn beat Illinois 71-62 in the Final Four; combined 133 points is under the 139.5 total (ESPN box score).
“Michigan, Arizona plus the 1.5. This game comes down entirely to Michigan's three-point shooting.”
91-73 — Michigan beat Arizona 91-73 in the Final Four; Arizona lost by 18, well outside the +1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Total for this is 138.5 points. We're going to bet the under. Illinois doesn't foul all that much.”
71-59 — Illinois beat Iowa 71-59 in the South Region Elite Eight on 2026-03-28 (ESPN); combined 130 points clears the under 138.5.
“Arizona is a six-and-a-half-point favorite in the West Regional Final against the Boilermakers. What do you think? I would look to Arizona, but I wouldn't go crazy with this one. Game open four. Last night, we immediately saw Wildcat money flood the market and knock it up to six-and-a-half. Purdue can defend the rim a little bit, which is where Arizona wants to live, so keep that in mind. But given the rebounding edge, given the turnover edge, given the way that Arizona's been playing, and the way they can defend the three-pointer, which is what Purdue wants to do for part of their offense, I'd be looking at the Wildcats here.”
79-64 — Arizona beat Purdue 79-64 in the West Region Elite Eight on 2026-03-28 (ESPN); Arizona won by 15, covering -6.5.
“All right, let's do the other three games that are on tonight's schedule. Well again really good glamour teams in a game of who you got Joe I start with you Alabama the spread is 8 Who do you like Laying it with Michigan Alabama going to get cooked on the glass in tonight game which is going to lead to a lot of second-chance opportunities for Michigan.”
90-77 — Michigan beat Alabama 90-77 on 2026-03-27 (ESPN); Michigan won by 13, covering -8.
“John's and Duke tonight. The number is six and a half.”
80-75 — Duke beat St. John's 80-75 on 2026-03-27 (ESPN); St. John's lost by 5, covering +6.5.
“Totals 141 and a half.”
80-75 — Duke beat St. John's 80-75 on 2026-03-27 (ESPN); combined 155 points busts the under 141.5.
“UConn, lay the one and a half. Clean out the earwax because you're not going to want to miss this. Danny Hurley in his career in the tournament, 18-4 against the spread.”
67-63 — UConn beat Michigan State 67-63 on 2026-03-27 (ESPN); UConn won by 4, covering -1.5.
“Arizona, a 6.5-point favorite over Purdue tomorrow. Which side do you like? Like Arizona, don't love Arizona. Game opened four, and last night we immediately saw a lot of wildcat money. I mean, how could there not be, considering how good they've looked? They can defend the three-point line, which is going to be big against Purdue. On top of that, they've got a rebounding edge and a turnover edge. But the number's starting to get away from this here. So we like Arizona.”
79-64 — Arizona beat Purdue 79-64 in the West Region Elite Eight on 2026-03-28 (ESPN); Arizona won by 15, covering -6.5.
“Over-under, also known as the total set at 138.5. We want to go under in that game.”
71-59 — Illinois beat Iowa 71-59 in the South Region Elite Eight on 2026-03-28 (ESPN); combined 130 points clears the under 138.5.
“The Knicks to win the East plus 380. The Celtics to win the East plus 170. I would much rather take the Knicks.”
The Knicks swept the Cavaliers 4-0 in the 2025-26 Eastern Conference Finals, clinching with a 130-93 Game 4 win on 2026-05-25 (ESPN), and advanced to the NBA Finals. (Knicks def. Cavaliers 4-0 in ECF (clinching Game 4: Knicks 130, Cavaliers 93))
“St. John's plus the 6.5. The Caleb Foster injury looms large here in five games without him since the injury against UNC. Minus 18 turnover differential. St. John's can turn you over.”
80-75 — Duke beat St. John's 80-75 on 2026-03-27 (ESPN); St. John's lost by 5, covering +6.5.
“Alabama, Michigan, the Wolverines are an eight-and-a-half point favorite. We'll lay the eight-and-a-half with Michigan.”
90-77 — Michigan beat Alabama 90-77 on 2026-03-27 (ESPN); Michigan won by 13, covering -8.5.
“Izzo and Hurley, Michigan State and UConn. The Huskies a one-and-a-half point favorite. What do you like? It's got to be UConn. Danny Hurley is Mr. Money in the tournament. 18-4 against the spread. Lifetime, 8-0 against the spread. in the Sweet 16 or later.”
67-63 — UConn beat Michigan State 67-63 on 2026-03-27 (ESPN); UConn won by 4, covering -1.5.
“Iowa State, a three-and-a-half-point favorite. What's the smart money? We'll take the points here at Tennessee, get a little bit on the money line as well. The injury to Joshua Jefferson for Iowa State looms large.”
76-62 — Tennessee beat Iowa State 76-62 on 2026-03-27 (ESPN); Tennessee won outright, covering +3.5.
“Paul Skeen's under six and a half strikeouts.”
11-7 — Paul Skenes recorded 1 strikeout (0.2 IP, 5 ER) as the Mets beat the Pirates 11-7 on 2026-03-26 (ESPN box score); under 6.5 strikeouts covers. (Paul Skenes: 1 strikeout)
“I would keep riding with Iowa here plus the two-and-a-half. Should be a lower-scoring game, which makes the two-and-a-half in our pocket more valuable.”
77-71 — Iowa beat Nebraska 77-71 in the South Region Sweet 16 on 2026-03-26 (ESPN); Iowa won outright, comfortably covering +2.5.
“I would take St. John's plus the six and a half. We've seen early under money here, which correlates nicely with an underdog play.”
80-75 — Duke beat St. John's 80-75 on 2026-03-27 (ESPN); St. John's lost by 5, covering +6.5.
“We'll lay the 7.5 with Purdue Greeny.”
79-77 — Purdue beat Texas 79-77 on 2026-03-26 (ESPN); Purdue won by only 2, failing to cover -7.5.
“Michigan State, UConn, that's an under bet. 137.5, open 140. Under money's been coming in for good reason.”
67-63 — UConn beat Michigan State 67-63 on 2026-03-27 (ESPN); combined 130 points clears the under 137.5.
“We'll look to a futures play here. Houston to make the final fours plus money. Plus 115, $10 bet, returns $11.50 in profit.”
65-55 — Houston was eliminated by Illinois 65-55 in the South Region Sweet 16 on 2026-03-26 (ESPN), never reaching the Final Four.
“This game opened Gonzaga minus seven. Money immediately came in on Texas and knocked it down to five and a half.”
GONZ 68, TEX 74 — Texas beat Gonzaga 74-68 in the NCAA Tournament Round of 32, a +6 margin that covers the +5.5 spread (ESPN).
“We'll take the 2.5. This could be one of your surprise upsets of the day. So we're going to begin Santa Clara plus the 2.5 over Kentucky.”
UK 89, SCU 84 — Kentucky beat Santa Clara 89-84 in overtime in the NCAA Tournament First Round; Santa Clara's -5 margin busts the +2.5 spread (ESPN).
“Akron plus 7.5 over Texas Tech. Red Raiders are limping in both literally and figuratively.”
TTU 91, AKR 71 — Texas Tech beat Akron 91-71 in the NCAA Tournament First Round; Akron's -20 margin busts the +7.5 spread (ESPN).
“And finally, Northern Iowa plus the 9.5 over St. John's. I think the Johnnies are a tad overvalued because we just saw them destroy UConn in the Big East Championship game.”
SJU 79, UNI 53 — St. John's beat Northern Iowa 79-53 in the NCAA Tournament First Round; Northern Iowa's -26 margin busts the +9.5 spread (ESPN).
“So another first four team, Texas taking on BYU. I'd play the Longhorns plus the two and a half there.”
BYU 71, TEX 79 — Texas beat BYU 79-71 in the NCAA Tournament First Four, a margin of +8, covering the +2.5 spread (ESPN).
“[32:45] I like Harry, but I like money more, so we're definitely going to take South Florida here. [32:49] This is a popular play out west. [32:50] Come on, you like money, too. [32:51] No, just talk. Go ahead. [32:52] You like money, too. [32:53] All right, this one opened 6.5. [32:55] Got bet down to 5.5. [32:56] The injury comes in. [32:57] Now we're down to 4.5. [32:59] Two teams heading in opposite directions. [33:00] Louisville loses 4 of 8 on their way in. [33:02] Here comes South Florida. [33:03] They've won 11 straight, as you know. [33:04] Very good basketball team. [33:05] We're not friends anymore. [33:06] Problem for Louisville outside of the injury, three-point variance. [33:10] They shoot the fourth most threes of anybody in the entire country. [33:13] When those aren't falling, the offense collapses. [33:15] South Florida's got a top 40 defense. [33:17] We like South Florida plus the points upset special.”
LOU 83, USF 79 — Louisville beat South Florida 83-79 in the NCAA Tournament First Round; South Florida's -4 margin is better than the +4.5 spread, so it covers (ESPN).
“We'll take high point plus the 10.5 over Wisconsin.”
WIS 82, HPU 83 — High Point upset Wisconsin 83-82 in the NCAA Tournament First Round, winning outright and easily covering the +10.5 spread (ESPN).
“where you catching 10 points Now elsewhere matchup between VCU and North Carolina I would look to VCU here They the dog plus 2 The Caleb Martin injury looms large 20 points 9 rebounds 58 from the field gone from the lineup Here comes VCU. Winners of 16 of their last 17. Balanced attack on offense and defense. They're top 60 in both categories. And here's the thing. When you have a spread of 2.5, if we're projecting a tight game, you're going to need to make your free throws.”
UNC 78, VCU 82 — VCU beat North Carolina 82-78 in overtime in the NCAA Tournament First Round, winning outright and covering the +2.5 spread (ESPN).
“So we're betting over under on Siena. How many points will they score? We're going to go under 53 and a half against Duke.”
DUKE 71, SIE 65 — Duke beat Siena 71-65 in the NCAA Tournament First Round; Siena scored 65 points, busting the team-total Under 53.5 (ESPN).
“Elsewhere, let's go with the dog. High point, plus 10.5 against Wisconsin.”
WIS 82, HPU 83 — High Point upset Wisconsin 83-82 in the NCAA Tournament First Round, winning outright and easily covering the +10.5 spread (ESPN).
“Idaho we're gonna go under their number against Houston which is 56 and a half”
HOU 78, IDHO 47 — Houston beat Idaho 78-47 in the NCAA Tournament First Round; Idaho's team total of 47 covers the Under 56.5 (ESPN).
“I still think overall Arizona's the better team, but given the pricing and the path, Purdue's a team I'm using not only in bets but to win that region.”
No. 1 Arizona beat No. 2 Purdue 79-64 in the West Region final (ESPN recap) to win the region; Purdue to win the West Region lost. (Arizona 79, Purdue 64 (West Region final))
“I'm going to shotgun a few. I'm going to give you some round wonders because Joe Fortinball is not just going to give out one. South Florida plus 5.5 over Louisville.”
79-83 — Louisville beat South Florida 83-79 (ESPN box score); South Florida's -4 margin covers the +5.5 line.
“Northern Iowa plus 9.5 over St. John's.”
53-79 — St. John's beat Northern Iowa 79-53 (ESPN recap); Northern Iowa's -26 margin busts the +9.5 line.
“VCU plus 2.5 over North Carolina.”
78-82 — VCU beat North Carolina 82-78 in overtime (ESPN box score); VCU's +4 margin covers the +2.5 line.
“Iowa minus 2.5 over Clemson.”
61-67 — Iowa beat Clemson 67-61 (ESPN box score); Iowa's +6 margin covers the -2.5 line.
“Also like Hawaii, plus 15.5 against Arkansas.”
78-97 — Arkansas beat Hawai'i 97-78 (ESPN box score); Hawai'i's -19 margin busts the +15.5 line.
“Vandy. To make the Sweet 16, it's plus 105. I like that because if we hit there, we're basically free rolling then”
Nebraska beat Vanderbilt 74-72 in the second round (ESPN recap), so Vanderbilt never reached the Sweet 16. (Nebraska 74, Vanderbilt 72 (second round))
“we're basically free rolling then with the final four bet on Vandy at 11-1.”
No. 3 Illinois won the South Region, reaching the Final Four (ESPN Final Four preview); Vanderbilt was eliminated by Nebraska in the second round, so Vanderbilt to win the South Region lost. (Illinois won the South Region)
“The other I throw out there, Virginia to make the Elite 8 is plus 3-10. That's the Michigan quadrant. I can see things getting a little dicey. Virginia's got a lot of balance with what they bring to the table. That's what I'm throwing at you as well.”
Virginia lost to Tennessee 79-72 in the second round (ESPN recap), so Virginia never reached the Elite Eight. (Tennessee 79, Virginia 72 (second round))
“So the future is going to be interesting for the Lakers and Luka will be the center of that But the immediate future was what I wanted to ask Joe about Joe I was looking at your notes and there was a best bet that I found fascinating Go Yeah, they play soft. I bet they missed the playoffs. I know that sounds crazy, and people say, well, look at this, look at that. It's not a coin flip situation. They're offering us 10 to 1. What does 10 to 1 mean? It means 9%. So ask yourself, is there a greater than, less than, or equal to 9% chance of them missing the playoffs? I think it's greater than that. I think Phoenix gets past them and pushes them into the play-in. And once they're there, wouldn't be surprised if they completely implode and pack it in. They're a team that doesn't play any defense, as Wendy was telling you, 24th in defensive rating. Through 58 games, I believe it is this season, they have a negative point differential and a negative net rating. They're 19th in net rating. They play soft defense. Can you get DeAndre Ayton to play consistent for you night in and night out? Do you have leadership? Are you going to make a big push down the stretch? You offer me 10-1 that they miss the playoffs. I'll take that bet, Greeny. 10-1 that they miss the playoffs. Again, losing in the play-in constitutes missing the playoffs.”
Lakers finished the 2025-26 regular season 53-29 and clinched the No. 4 seed in the West outright (no play-in needed), so the 'Lakers to miss the playoffs' bet loses; they beat the Rockets 4-2 in Round 1 before being swept 4-0 by the Thunder in Round 2 (ESPN standings/schedule). (Lakers finished 53-29, No. 4 seed West (clinched); beat Rockets 4-2 in Round 1, swept 0-4 by Thunder in Round 2)
“We're going to lay the four-and-a-half here with the Seahawks.”
SEA 29, NE 13 — Seahawks beat the Patriots 29-13 in Super Bowl LX; Seattle -4.5 covers by 16 points.
“I like him over 37 and a half rushing yards, but the focus here, the better play, is that May throws an interception.”
Drake Maye rushed for exactly 37 yards in Super Bowl LX, short of the over-37.5 line. (5 carries, 37 rushing yards)
“All right, so you like the Seahawks, but then how about May himself? Do we have a prop for him? I'll give you two. I like him over 37 and a half rushing yards, but the focus here, the better play, is that May throws an interception.”
Drake Maye threw 2 interceptions in Super Bowl LX, one of which Seattle's defense returned for a touchdown. (27/43, 252 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT (one returned for a touchdown))
“Patriots team total, you're betting the over-under on how many points they score. 20.5 is the number I would play under.”
NE 13, SEA 29 — The Patriots scored 13 points in Super Bowl LX, under the 20.5 team-total line.
“Seattle minus 4.5 combined with the under 45.5 total points,”
SEA 29, NE 13 — Seahawks beat the Patriots 29-13 in Super Bowl LX; Seattle -4.5 covers by 16 points.
“Seattle minus 4.5 combined with the under 45.5 total points, which you can wait on because the public money will probably knock that up a little bit.”
SEA 29, NE 13 — Super Bowl LX finished Seahawks 29, Patriots 13, a combined 42 points, under the 45.5 total.
“The New York Knicks tonight are laying seven and a half against the Portland Trailblazers.”
NY 127, POR 97 — Knicks beat the Trail Blazers 127-97; New York -7.5 covers by 30 points.
“We're going to lay the four and a half with Kansas.”
KU 90, BYU 82 — Kansas beat BYU 90-82; Kansas -4.5 covers by 8 points.
“Yeah, I would play Denver plus the points. It's at four and a half now.”
NE 10, DEN 7 — Patriots beat Broncos 10-7 in the AFC Championship; Denver +4.5 covers losing by only 3.
“All right, let's do Hitting the Mark. It's brought to you by DraftKings Sportsbook. Joe Fortenbaugh is here with a few picks that will turn into a parlay for the NFC Championship game. Joe, take it away. Let's start with Jackson, Smith, and Jigba to score an anytime touchdown plus 100. Hell of a price for a guy who's found the end zone 10 times in his last 14 games, especially when you factor in the matchup against the Rams. Since week 13, only two teams have given up more passing touchdowns than the Rams,”
Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught a touchdown in the NFC Championship (10 receptions, 153 yards, 1 TD) as Seattle beat the Rams 31-27. (10 receptions, 153 yards, 1 TD)
“On top of that let look at his teammate AJ Barner Four plus receptions Great buy low price because he had zero targets against the Niners last week Wasn even a factor in the passing game But this dude shows up in these matchups against the Rams Two games this year, targeted 17 times. 14 receptions, 119 yards, and a touchdown. Darnold under pressure, finds his security blanket, checks it down. Barner gets us four or more receptions.”
AJ Barner caught only 2 of 3 targets for 13 yards in the NFC Championship, falling short of the four-plus-receptions line. (2 receptions, 13 yards on 3 targets)
“And then finally, let's go to the other side. Matthew Stafford, longest completion, 35 or more yards. Sean McVay knows how to dial it up against a Mike McDonald defense. And that's not just against McDonald's Seahawks. It's against McDonald's Ravens as well, if you go back in time. The last matchup Stafford had against this team in Seattle that went to overtime, four. Count them, four completions of 40 or more yards. We just need one to hit 35. I'm confident we'll get that here, Green.”
Matthew Stafford's longest completion in the NFC Championship went for 44 yards, clearing the 35-plus-yard line (22/35, 374 yards, 3 TD). (22/35, 374 yards, 3 TD; longest completion 44 yards)
“The Seahawks are a two-and-a-half-point favorite at DraftKings as we speak. Joe, which way on that are you looking? Laying it with Seattle, two key reasons. Let's start with the Rams' defense. Since week 13, completely fallen off a cliff. 22nd or worse in scoring, efficiency, and EPA. You just saw them last week. They survived the Bears, giving up 417 total yards in the process.”
SEA 31, LAR 27 — Seahawks beat the Rams 31-27 in the NFC Championship; Seattle -2.5 covers by a 4-point margin.
“Most definitely hit the mark Let do Hitting the Mark It brought to you by DraftKings Sportsbook We looking for props for this weekend particularly focusing on the Sunday divisional games with our betting expert Joe Fortenbaugh These are all brought to you by DraftKings Sportsbook. Joe, who do you like to hit the mark? Texans, Patriots. Drake Maye, 30-plus rushing yards. This is going to be a low-scoring game. Every single yard is going to count. Drake Maye is averaging six rushing attempts per game on the season. Ran for 66 yards against the Chargers last week. As elite as that Houston defense is, quarterbacks can run on them. Tenth most rushing yards allowed to opposing QBs this season because they flush you out of the pocket and then you take off. We like made a run for 30 or more yards. All right, that's the early game Sunday. Let's go to the night game. What do you like on the Rams? Blake Corum, 46-plus rushing yards. The Bears rank 24th in defensive rush success rate. You can run on these guys. Enter Corum, averaging over five yards per carry on the season, double-digit rushing attempts in five of his last six games. Pay attention. Rams are three-and-a-half-point favorites, so if they're leading late in the game, they'll be running the ball to kill the clock. That's where Coram could rack up some bonus yards. All right, and how about the other side? Give me something from the Bears. Roma Dunze, 40-plus receiving yards. Cheap price because he only caught two passes last week coming back from injury against the Packers. However, those two passes went for 44 receiving yards. The vulnerability of the Los Angeles Rams is the secondary. Tenth-most receiving yards allowed, two opposing wide receivers. You can throw on these guys. This is supposed to be a very cold game, so a lot of people are making the mistake thinking it's going to be low scoring. Don't make that mistake. This game has sneaky shootout potential. By the way, that play remains the most watchable play maybe of the NFL season. So recapping, if you like the picks, they're a parlay. Drake Maye over on the rushing yards. Coram over on the rushing yards. Odunze over on the receiving yards. They've parlayed them together with the DraftKings Sportsbook app. Look for the hitting the mark featured parlay priced at plus 506 odds.”
Drake Maye ran for 10 yards (under 30) as New England beat Houston 28-16, and Blake Corum ran for 19 yards (under 46) while Rome Odunze caught for 44 yards (over 40) as the Rams beat the Bears 20-17 in OT on Jan 18, 2026; the parlay busts on the Maye and Corum legs. (Maye 10 rush yds (Texans-Patriots); Corum 19 rush yds, Odunze 44 rec yds (Rams-Bears))
“Team total over 27 and a half points.”
IU 27, MIA 21 — Indiana scored 27 points in its 27-21 win over Miami in the CFP National Championship (Jan 19, 2026), falling short of the 27.5 team-total over.
“I'd lay the eight and a half with Indiana.”
IU 27, MIA 21 — Indiana beat Miami 27-21 in the CFP National Championship (Jan 19, 2026), a margin of +6, short of the -8.5 spread.
“We power through. This total opened 51-1⁄2. Immediately got that down to 48-1⁄2 because of the weather. People think the cold weather is going to lead to an under. I think we're getting a discount. I think we played the over. Here's the number. Last 10 years, games in the playoffs, kickoff, freezing temperatures or lower, over is 18-9.”
LAR 20, CHI 17 — The Rams beat the Bears 20-17 in OT on Jan 18, 2026, a combined 37 points, under the 48.5 total.
“I'd look to laying the three and a half with the Rams.”
LAR 20, CHI 17 — The Rams beat the Bears 20-17 in OT on Jan 18, 2026, a margin of +3, short of the -3.5 spread.
“Bills Broncos tomorrow in Denver game pick is Broncos minus one and a half best bet under 45 and a half.”
DEN 33, BUF 30 — Denver beat Buffalo 33-30 in OT on Jan 17, 2026, a margin of +3, covering the -1.5 spread.
“Under 45 and a half is the best bet.”
DEN 33, BUF 30 — Denver beat Buffalo 33-30 in OT on Jan 17, 2026, a combined 63 points, well over the 45.5 total.
“All right, let's go to the next game. We just told you Kyle Shanahan never loses in this round. He's a big underdog at Seattle tomorrow night. Seahawks minus seven. Joe, best bets. Laying the points with Seattle. Sam Darnold's kryptonite is pressure. Problem is San Francisco can't generate any. Since Nick Bosa went down with an injury in week three, The Niners rank 31st in the NFL in pass rush win rate.”
SEA 41, SF 6 — Seattle routed San Francisco 41-6 on Jan 17, 2026, a margin of +35, easily covering the -7 spread.
“Game pick is Houston plus three.”
NE 28, HOU 16 — New England beat Houston 28-16 on Jan 18, 2026, a margin of -12 for the Texans, short of the +3 spread.
“Best bet is under 40 and a half.”
NE 28, HOU 16 — New England beat Houston 28-16 on Jan 18, 2026, a combined 44 points, over the 40.5 total.
“Marquez Valdez-Scantling over one and a half receptions is like plus 160, over 11 and a half receiving yards. Rodgers likes going to his guys. I'd have to imagine with Stingley going after Metcalf, we're going to have an opportunity to get some MDS stuff. So I play those overs.”
Marquez Valdes-Scantling caught 3 passes in the Steelers' 6-30 loss to Houston, clearing the over 1.5 receptions (ESPN box score). (Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 3 receptions)
“Marquez Valdez-Scantling over one and a half receptions is like plus 160, over 11 and a half receiving yards. Rodgers likes going to his guys. I'd have to imagine with Stingley going after Metcalf, we're going to have an opportunity to get some MDS stuff. So I play those overs.”
Marquez Valdes-Scantling had 26 receiving yards for Pittsburgh, clearing the over 11.5 receiving yards (ESPN box score). (Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 26 receiving yards)
“Best bet in this one, Philadelphia plus one and a half.”
BUF 12, PHI 13 — Eagles beat Bills 13-12 in Week 17, a +1 margin that covers Philadelphia's +1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“We'll go ahead and play Oklahoma on the money line here.”
OU 24, ALA 34 — Alabama rallied from a 17-point halftime deficit to beat Oklahoma 34-24 in the CFP First Round; Oklahoma moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Miami versus the Aggies What your best bet Laying the three and a half with Texas A”
TA&M 3, MIA 10 — Miami beat Texas A&M 10-3 in the CFP First Round; Texas A&M lost outright, so the -3.5 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“Give me one more. Tulane at Ole Miss. Smaller bet will lay the big number with Ole Miss. now that it's crossed 17, we'll lay the 17.5.”
MISS 41, TULN 10 — Ole Miss beat Tulane 41-10 in the CFP First Round, a margin of +31 that easily covers the -17.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I take the Raiders plus the 11.5. We're asking the Eagles to not only win, but to win by margin. It's not something they do.”
31-0 — The Raiders lost 0-31 to the Eagles, a 31-point margin far worse than the +11.5 the bet needed.
“get the spread out of there and just lay the minus 120 on the Bills to win the game”
35-31 — The Bills beat the Patriots 35-31, winning outright on the moneyline.
“How about the Browns and Bears in frigid Chicago? I'll take Cleveland plus the 7.5. This is what we call a sandwich spot for the Bears.”
3-31 — The Browns lost 3-31 to the Bears, a 28-point margin far worse than the +7.5 the bet needed.
“Best bet SEC championship game Bama tomorrow Anything less than three it all systems go on Georgia, two and a half, so we're going to go ahead and lay the points.”
ALA 7, UGA 28 — Georgia beat Alabama 28-7 in the SEC Championship Game, a 21-point margin; Georgia -2.5 covers (ESPN).
“Next, NFL pick, Steelers-Ravens. What do we like? Ravens minus five and a half.”
BAL 22, PIT 27 — Steelers beat Ravens 27-22; a 5-point margin falls short of Ravens -5.5, so the bet busts (ESPN box score).
“And then how about the big game at Lambeau Field, Bears and Packers? This is an under bet, 44 and a half.”
GB 28, CHI 21 — Packers beat Bears 28-21, a combined 49 points; under 44.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“on the Cowboys next week against Minnesota, where they're minus 6.5.”
DAL 26, MIN 34 — Vikings beat Cowboys 34-26, an 8-point margin; Cowboys -6.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“But if you want the best bet, you want to play the under 41.5. Money's been coming in on that all week, and for good reason.”
KC 10, HOU 20 — Texans beat Chiefs 20-10, a combined 30 points; under 41.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“NFL as we go, but we welcome again our new gambling partners, DraftKings Sportsbook, and to the NBA we go with Joe Fortenbaugh, our betting expert, who nailed one yesterday. We did King of the Court yesterday, you gave us Anthony Edwards, and it paid off. You could have had a share of a million dollars if you bet with Joe yesterday Want to announce official retirement from King of the Court Okay let us talk about what we are playing tonight Where does it start Karl-Anthony Towns rebounds We go over 11 and a half Key to the handicap. Second half of a back-to-back after they lost to the Celtics last night. What does that mean? Unlikely to see Mitchell Robinson tonight, which means Cat should eat on the glass. This season, he's averaging about 11 boards per game with no Mitchell Robinson. That number jumps to 13. Great matchup here. Great opportunity to have a big night on the glass for Cat.”
NY 119, CHA 104 — Karl-Anthony Towns had 18 rebounds (and 35 points) as the Knicks beat the Hornets 119-104; over 11.5 rebounds covers (ESPN box score). (Karl-Anthony Towns: 18 rebounds)
“Next, we go to Cooper Flagg. What are we looking at with him? Under 17.5 points.”
DAL 118, MIA 108 — Cooper Flagg scored 22 points as the Mavericks beat the Heat 118-108; under 17.5 points busts (ESPN box score). (Cooper Flagg: 22 points)
“And then we got the Nuggets and the Pacers tonight. What are you looking at there? Over 235.5 total points.”
IND 120, DEN 135 — Nuggets beat Pacers 135-120, a combined 255 points; over 235.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“These are all from Packers-Lions. Jordan Love, one and a half touchdowns. More or less? More. Detroit has allowed this in eight of 11 games this season. In fact, there are only five teams in the NFL allowing more touchdown passes per game than the Lions. You see the way it's priced on the over-under, about 48 and a half. Vegas does expect some scoring here, so we're going to go more one and a half touchdowns. Jordan Love.”
GB 31, DET 24 — Jordan Love threw 4 passing touchdowns in Green Bay's 31-24 Thanksgiving win over Detroit, clearing the 1.5 line (ESPN box score). (Jordan Love: 4 passing touchdowns)
“Jameer Gibbs, total yards, so rushing plus receiving, one 14 and a half, more or less. This is going to be less.”
GB 31, DET 24 — Jahmyr Gibbs totaled 86 yards (68 rushing, 18 receiving) in Detroit's 31-24 Thanksgiving loss to Green Bay, under the 114.5 line (ESPN box score). (Jahmyr Gibbs: 68 rushing + 18 receiving = 86 total yards)
“And it could mean more passing yards for Jared Goff. His number is 242.5. Which way do we go? That I would actually look to less.”
GB 31, DET 24 — Jared Goff threw for 256 passing yards in Detroit's 31-24 Thanksgiving loss to Green Bay, over the 242.5 line (bet was under) (ESPN box score). (Jared Goff: 256 passing yards)
“Patrick Mahomes' passing yards total is 273.5. We go more or less. More. The opportunities are going to be their fourth most passing attempts per game this season.”
KC 23, IND 20 — Patrick Mahomes threw for 346 passing yards in Kansas City's 23-20 OT win over Indianapolis, clearing the 273.5 line (ESPN box score). (Patrick Mahomes: 346 passing yards)
“How about Indiana Jones? One and a half passing touchdowns is his total. We go more or less. We're going to go less here. This number isn't as easy to eclipse as some people think. Jones has only hit it four of ten games this year. Kansas City's only allowed it two of ten games this season. The path for the Colts is going to be to run the football early and run the football often.”
KC 23, IND 20 — Daniel Jones threw 2 passing touchdowns in Indianapolis's 23-20 OT loss to Kansas City, going over the 1.5 line (bet was under) (ESPN box score). (Daniel Jones: 2 passing touchdowns)
“And then how about Jonathan Taylor, who's been sensational. His rushing total, 91 and a half yards. This is where we play the more. Workhorse running back, number one in the NFL in rushing attempts per game, coming off a bye, rested in a situation where he's going to see a ton of workload. Kansas City been good against the run not great About 18th in the NFL in opponent yards for rushing attempts So as long as we get the opportunities I see a 100 day here All right If you like Joe picks they a parlay We going over on Mahomes under on Jones over on JT”
KC 23, IND 20 — Jonathan Taylor rushed for 58 yards in Indianapolis's 23-20 OT loss to Kansas City, well under the 91.5 line (ESPN box score). (Jonathan Taylor: 58 rushing yards)
“262.5 passing yards for Patrick Mahomes. More or less? Less. Only three of ten quarterbacks have done this to the Bronco defense this year.”
22-19 — Patrick Mahomes threw for 276 yards (29/45) in the Broncos' 22-19 win over the Chiefs; busts under 262.5. (Patrick Mahomes: 276 passing yards)
“Four and a half catches for Travis Kelsey, more or less? Less. Denver's defense is allowing about 4.1 receptions per game to opposing tight ends this year.”
22-19 — Travis Kelce caught 9 passes for 91 yards and a TD in the Chiefs' 22-19 loss to the Broncos; busts under 4.5 receptions. (Travis Kelce: 9 receptions, 91 yds, 1 TD)
“One and a half touchdown passes for Bo Nix. He's been struggling. This is also going to be less.”
22-19 — Bo Nix threw 0 passing touchdowns (24/37, 295 yds) in the Broncos' 22-19 win over the Chiefs; stays under 1.5. (Bo Nix: 24/37, 295 pass yds, 0 pass TD)
“92.5 rushing yards for Jonathan Taylor against Atlanta. What do you think? More.”
31-25 — Jonathan Taylor rushed for 244 yards (32 carries, 3 TD) as the Colts beat the Falcons 31-25 in OT; clears over 92.5. (Jonathan Taylor: 244 rushing yards)
“How about 96.5 receiving yards for JSN against Arizona? This is going to be less.”
44-22 — Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 5 passes for 93 receiving yards as the Seahawks beat the Cardinals 44-22; stays under 96.5. (Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 93 receiving yards)
“Caleb Williams against the Giants. One and a half touchdown passes for the former number one pick. What do you think? Less.”
24-20 — Caleb Williams threw for 220 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT (20/36) as the Bears beat the Giants 24-20; stays under 1.5 passing TDs. (Caleb Williams: 20/36, 220 pass yds, 1 pass TD)
“Chargers are a two-and-a-half-point favorite. Who you got? Chargers. If the Steelers are coming all the way across the country, you're telling me I don't even have to lay the full three points for home field in this matchup? I'll take L.A.”
25-10 — The Chargers beat the Steelers 25-10, covering the -2.5 spread by 12.5 points.
“His number on passing yards is 275. What do you think? We're going to go more.”
BUF 28, KC 21 — Patrick Mahomes threw for 250 passing yards in the Chiefs' 28-21 loss to the Bills, under 275.5 (ESPN box score). (Patrick Mahomes: 15/34, 250 pass yds)
“How about James Cook's 75 rushing yards? This is going to be more as well.”
BUF 28, KC 21 — James Cook rushed for 114 yards on 27 carries in Buffalo's 28-21 win over Kansas City, over 75.5 (ESPN box score). (James Cook: 27 car, 114 rush yds)
“And how about Josh Allen? One and a half passing touchdowns is the prop. Yeah, you'll notice the theme here more.”
BUF 28, KC 21 — Josh Allen threw 1 passing touchdown (with 2 rushing TDs) in the Bills' 28-21 win over the Chiefs, under 1.5 passing TDs (ESPN box score). (Josh Allen: 23/26, 1 pass TD; 2 rush TD)
“Carolina plus 13.5 over Green Bay. Look at the sandwich spot for Green Bay here. They're off a huge win on Sunday night football over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Who do they have on deck? The defending champion, Philadelphia Eagles. Wedged in between is a game where you're laying 13 and a half against a Carolina team whose defense has improved this year. Dead last in the NFL last season, 21st in defensive EPA this year. Carolina's not great, don't get me wrong, but they're feisty enough to stay inside the number.”
GB 13, CAR 16 — Carolina won outright 16-13 over Green Bay, easily covering +13.5 (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with the Texas Longhorns. The number's getting away from this year. It's now up to three and a half, so this has got to be a smaller wager.”
TEX 34, VAN 31 — Texas beat Vanderbilt 34-31, a 3-point margin that falls short of the -3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“We're going to go with Yamamoto and the Dodgers here at minus 135. This is roughly the same price we got with Yamamoto in game two in Toronto when he absolutely shoved against this Blue Jays lineup.”
LAD 3, TOR 1 — The Dodgers beat the Blue Jays 3-1 in World Series Game 6, winning the moneyline outright (ESPN box score).
“Jalen Hurts threw it all over the place last week against Minnesota. His total is 204 and a half passing yards. What do you think? We'll play more.”
PHI 38, NYG 20 — Jalen Hurts threw for only 179 passing yards (15/20, 4 TD) in Philadelphia's 38-20 win over the Giants, under the 204.5 line (ESPN box score). (Hurts 15/20, 179 pass yds, 4 pass TD, 0 INT)
“How about the rookie on the other side? Combined yards, so passing and rushing for Jaxson Dart, 240 and a half. This is more as well.”
PHI 38, NYG 20 — Jaxson Dart had 193 passing yards plus 17 rushing yards (210 combined) in Philadelphia's 38-20 win over the Giants, under the 240.5 line (ESPN box score). (Dart 14/24, 193 pass yds, 1 pass TD; 6 car, 17 rush yds, 1 rush TD; 210 combined)
“Eagles have also really struggled running the football. Saquon Barkley doesn't have a hundred yard day yet. His total is 80 and a half yards. Where do we go? Less.”
PHI 38, NYG 20 — Saquon Barkley rushed for 150 yards on 14 carries in Philadelphia's 38-20 win over the Giants, well over the 80.5 line, so the under busts (ESPN box score). (Barkley 14 car, 150 rush yds, 1 TD)
“Number one, Saints plus four and a half over the Buccaneers”
TB 23, NO 3 — Tampa Bay beat New Orleans 23-3, a 20-point Saints loss that fails to cover +4.5 (ESPN final score).
“Very simply put, week three, Jets are in Tampa Bay facing the Bucs. They're catching six and a half. Now they're in Cincinnati, and they're catching six and a half. It is a third-worst defense in the NFL. I like the Flacco story, but it's too many points. Give me the Jets.”
CIN 38, NYJ 39 — The Jets beat Cincinnati 39-38, a 1-point outright win that comfortably covers +6.5 (ESPN final score).
“South Carolina plus 11 and a half over Alabama”
ALA 29, SC 22 — Alabama beat South Carolina 29-22, a 7-point Gamecocks loss that covers South Carolina's +11.5 (ESPN final score).
“I think ultimately the play would be Baltimore. This is the best price you can get them all season, +130 to win the division.”
The Pittsburgh Steelers won the 2025 AFC North at 13-4, with Baltimore second at 12-5, so the Ravens futures bet loses (ESPN final standings). (Steelers 13-4 (AFC North champs); Ravens 12-5)
“Beginning in Kansas City, Rasheed Rice is back. Will he be better than ever? His total is 61.5 receiving yards. What do you think? Going more, Patrick Mahomes is going to want to get him involved”
KC 31, LV 0 — Rashee Rice caught 7 passes for 42 receiving yards (2 TD) in Kansas City's 31-0 win over Las Vegas, well under the 61.5 line (ESPN box score). (Rice 7 rec, 42 receiving yds, 2 TD)
“Cam Scadaboo is the most popular man in New York. His total is 55.5 rushing yards this weekend, more or less. We're going less.”
DEN 33, NYG 32 — Cam Skattebo rushed for 60 yards on 16 carries in Denver's 33-32 win over the Giants, over the 55.5 line, so the under busts (ESPN box score). (Skattebo 16 car, 60 rush yds)
“All right. And then how about Jalen Hurts? That struggling Eagles offense, 209.5 passing yards more or less. This is less. I thought it would be closer to maybe 190, 192, close to 210. We're definitely going to play the under here.”
PHI 28, MIN 22 — Jalen Hurts threw for 326 passing yards (19/23, 3 TD) in Philadelphia's 28-22 win over Minnesota, well over the 209.5 line, so the under busts (ESPN box score). (Hurts 19/23, 326 pass yds, 3 pass TD, 0 INT)
“Now, Commanders and Cowboys, huge matchup in the NFC East. The Commanders are one-and-a-half-point road favorite. Who you got? We like the Cowboys, but be careful. The injury report's going to tell a lot as we work our way through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. C.D. Lamb should be back for the Dallas offense. More on that in a bit. But this is about the spot for Washington. Short week off a Monday night game, traveling to a divisional opponent. You got an average to below-average defense. And, again, you have injuries at the wide receiver position. Enter C.D. Lamb, who's expected to return for a Dallas offense. that has been extraordinary this year. Defense has been the problem, but when you factor in the spread and the situation for Washington, Dallas is the play.”
DAL 44, WSH 22 — Dallas beat Washington 44-22, a 22-point margin that covers the Cowboys' +1.5 (ESPN final score).
“Okay, next game, Joe Fortenbaugh. We've got Falcons and 49ers. San Francisco, a two-and-a-half point favorite. Who you got? Thank you for asking me about this game with Harry Douglas on the show. We have the Niners.”
SF 20, ATL 10 — San Francisco beat Atlanta 20-10, a 10-point margin that covers the 49ers' -2.5 (ESPN final score).
“This is where you buy in on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Everyone's checking out on them now. You're going to get them at home, extra rest, three and a half points.”
GB 35, PIT 25 — Pittsburgh hosted Green Bay only once in 2025, on Oct. 26 (Week 8, not Oct. 19/Week 7 as logged); Green Bay won 35-25, a 10-point Steelers loss that fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN team schedule).
“Ooh, Kentucky, plus 13-and-a-half against Texas”
TEX 16, UK 13 — Texas beat Kentucky 16-13 in overtime, a 3-point Kentucky loss that covers the Wildcats' +13.5 (ESPN final score).
“Under seven and a half runs, Seattle and Toronto. It's been an offensive explosion the last few games. Market's readjusted. Now we take advantage by going the other way.”
SEA 6, TOR 2 — Seattle beat Toronto 6-2 in ALCS Game 5, a combined 8 runs that goes over the 7.5 total, so the under busts (ESPN final score).
“Lions Chiefs. Jared Goff, one and a half passing touchdowns. What do we say? We're going to go less here. Chiefs have allowed this to happen only one time in five games this season.”
DET 17-KC 30 — Jared Goff threw 2 passing touchdowns (23/29, 203 yds) in the Lions' 30-17 loss to the Chiefs, over 1.5 so the under busts (ESPN box score). (Jared Goff: 23/29, 203 passing yards, 2 passing TD)
“All right, the Jameer Gibbs rushing prop is 69 and a half yards. What do we say? This is going to be less as well. Taylor Decker injury on the offensive line is going to loom large here.”
DET 17-KC 30 — Jahmyr Gibbs rushed 17 times for 65 yards in the Chiefs' 30-17 win over the Lions, under 69.5 (ESPN box score). (Jahmyr Gibbs: 65 rushing yards)
“All right so that the Detroit offense How about Mr Mahomes 260 and a half passing yards This is going to be a more. Patrick Mahomes is number two in the NFL right now in passing attempts per game.”
DET 17-KC 30 — Patrick Mahomes threw for 257 passing yards (22/30) in the Chiefs' 30-17 win over the Lions, under 260.5 (ESPN box score). (Patrick Mahomes: 257 passing yards)
“So as we look at Ravens and Chiefs, I'm looking at Baltimore, a two-and-a-half-point road favorite in this game. What are you thinking? Anything short of the key number of three, we're playing Baltimore here.”
Chiefs 37, Ravens 20 — The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Baltimore Ravens 37-20, a 17-point Ravens loss that misses the Ravens -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I think there's something to what you're thinking about, Greeny. I'm kidding. We're laying the six-and-a-half for Green Bay here. Anything inside of the key number is going to be the play. You guys are talking about what's the path to the cover for Dallas. The strength is supposed to be the offense, right? But if you remove C.D. Lamb from the equation, they could barely move the ball against Chicago's defense. How are they going to move the ball with consistent success against Green Bay's defense, which is one of the best in the NFL. Now let's flip it around. Green Bay struggled offensively a bit at times. You got the Dallas defense. 900 passing yards allowed. The absolute worst pass defense in the league. To put that in perspective, Seattle's played four games. They've only given up 910 passing yards. We'll lay the six and a half.”
Packers 40, Cowboys 40 (OT) — Green Bay and Dallas finished tied 40-40 in overtime, so the Packers did not win by 7+ and the Packers -6.5 spread loses (ESPN box score).
“And now that it's down to two and a half, I would play Georgia.”
Alabama 24, Georgia 21 — Alabama beat Georgia 24-21, so Georgia -2.5 (a 3-point loss) fails to cover (ESPN box score).
“I like LSU plus the point and a half.”
Ole Miss 24, LSU 19 — Ole Miss beat LSU 24-19, a 5-point LSU loss that fails to cover LSU +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“Penn State minus a three and a half.”
Oregon 30, Penn State 24 (2OT) — Oregon beat Penn State 30-24 in double overtime, so Penn State -3.5 (an outright loss) fails to cover (ESPN box score).
“We're going to begin with the Cleveland Browns catching 7.5 against the Green Bay Packers.”
CLE 13-GB 10 — Cleveland beat Green Bay 13-10 on a field goal as time expired, a 3-point win that covers the Browns' +7.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Tennessee plus 4.5 against Indianapolis.”
IND 41-TEN 20 — Indianapolis beat Tennessee 41-20, a 21-point margin that far exceeds the Titans' +4.5 spread, so the pick lost (ESPN box score).
“catching six and a half points here with New York.”
TB 29-NYJ 27 — Tampa Bay beat the Jets 29-27, a 2-point margin that covers the Jets' +6.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Let's start with Dak Prescott's total, 264.5 passing yards. Joey, going more or less? More. Prescott's been in the league since 2016.”
CHI 31-DAL 14 — Dak Prescott threw for 251 yards (31/40) in Dallas' 14-31 loss to Chicago, under the 264.5 line, so the over pick lost (ESPN box score). (Prescott: 31/40, 251 pass yds)
“Okay, and then how about on the other side then? If the Bears are going to keep it competitive, is Caleb Williams going to throw for more than a one-and-a-half passing touchdown? This is also a more.”
CHI 31-DAL 14 — Caleb Williams threw 4 touchdown passes (19/28, 298 yds) in Chicago's 31-14 win over Dallas, clearing the 1.5 line, so the over pick won (ESPN box score). (Williams: 19/28, 298 pass yds, 4 TD)
“And then finally, Mike T just touched on it. The total in this one is huge. 50 and a half. Which way do we go? More, but it feels so easy.”
CHI 31-DAL 14 — Chicago beat Dallas 31-14, a combined 45 points, under the 50.5 total line, so the over pick lost (ESPN box score).
“Rams, because it's about the number three-and-a-half.”
PHI 33-LAR 26 — Philadelphia beat the Rams 33-26, a 7-point margin that exceeds the Rams' +3.5 spread, so the pick lost (ESPN box score).
“The Bills win it. They go to 3-0. What are you looking at with them? Their adjusted season win total is 13.5, which is the over-under how many wins they'll have this year. I'd play under. The numbers gotten out of control. It was 11 and a half to start the season. They beat the Ravens. We move it up to 12 and a half. All right. That's a coin flip game. But then you beat the Jets and you beat the Dolphins and we move it up again to 13 and a half in the four years since we went to a 17 game regular season. We've had five teams get to 14 wins. A lot needs to go right. We're going to play the under there.”
The Bills finished the 2025 regular season 12-5, under the 13.5 season win total (ESPN team schedule/results). (12-5 regular season record)
“Chargers minus two and a half over the Broncos”
LAC 23-DEN 20 — The Chargers beat the Broncos 23-20, a 3-point margin that covers the Chargers' -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“We'll lay the seven and a half with Oklahoma, but it's a smaller wager because we move through the key number of seven.”
OU 24-AUB 17 — Oklahoma beat Auburn 24-17, a 7-point margin that falls short of the Sooners' -7.5 spread, so the pick lost (ESPN box score).
“Pepto-Bismol game of the week, because this isn't going to be easy. We'll take the Gators plus the 9.5.”
MIA 26-FLA 7 — Miami beat Florida 26-7, a 19-point margin that far exceeds the Gators' +9.5 spread, so the pick lost (ESPN box score).
“Again, we've got the Rams, a three-and-a-half point. Let's see where he's going. Get him out of here. We've got the Rams. Going Rams, we'll take the points.”
PHI 33-LAR 26 — Philadelphia beat the Rams 33-26, a 7-point margin that exceeds the Rams' +3.5 spread, so the pick lost (ESPN box score).
“Joe, Jared Goff facing the Bears. 249.5 passing yards is the total. Do we go more or less? More. The number is cheap because of the performance we saw last week. Golf and the Lions look terrible, but that's more a byproduct of playing on the road at Green Bay. This is at home against a Chicago defense that's banged up in the secondary. Golf indoors versus golf outdoors is the difference. Indoors last year he averaged 280 passing yards per game. We're going more. All right, Joe, we talked about Saquon Barkley briefly before. Has the showdown with the Chiefs this weekend more or less 88.5 rushing yards? Less. As great as the Eagles looked in the Super Bowl last year, Barkley carried the ball 25 times for only 57 yards. Why? Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's game plan, sell out against Barkley. He is the engine that makes the offense go. I think he does the same thing here, especially knowing A.J. Brown is not 100%. And then finally, Cowboys-Giants. George Pickens, not really that involved in week one. His total is 53.5 receiving yards. You go more or less? Less. As bad as the Giants looked in week one, I still think they have a decent defense. In case in point, against Washington, the leading receiver was Debo Samuel with about 77 yards. If you're getting a wide receiver involved in this game, it's going to be C.D. Lamb, who had that big drop late in the game. I think you want to get him going. The Giants should be able to run the ball here so you can keep Dallas' offense off the field. All right, so let's recap again. We've got Goff and the over. We've got the under on Barkley. We have the under on George Pickens. We've made those a parlay. They're on ESPN Bet Sportsbook right now at plus 541.”
Jared Goff passed for 334 yards (over 249.5, won) in Detroit's 52-21 win over Chicago; Saquon Barkley rushed for 88 yards (under 88.5, won) in Philadelphia's 20-17 win over Kansas City; George Pickens caught for 68 yards (over the 53.5 under line, lost) in Dallas' 40-37 OT win over the Giants — all Sept 14, 2025; the parlay busts on the Pickens leg (ESPN box scores). (Goff 334 pass yds; Barkley 88 rush yds; Pickens 68 rec yds)
“We going to buy low on the Gators getting more than a touchdown at plus 7”
LSU 20, FLA 10 — LSU beat Florida 20-10 on Sept 13, 2025; Florida lost by 10, failing to cover as +7 underdogs (ESPN box score).
“We're going to play Georgia minus the 3.5.”
UGA 44, TENN 41 — Georgia beat Tennessee 44-41 in overtime on Sept 13, 2025; the Bulldogs won by only 3, short of covering as -3.5 favorites (ESPN box score).
“which is why we get Terence Crawford at an excellent price. We're betting TC plus 140.”
Terence Crawford defeated Canelo Alvarez by unanimous decision (116-112, 115-113, 115-113) on Sept 13, 2025, winning outright as the moneyline pick (Wikipedia fight record). (Crawford UD12 over Alvarez (116-112, 115-113, 115-113))
“We'll take Kansas City plus the point and a half.”
PHI 20, KC 17 — Eagles beat Chiefs 20-17 on Sept 14, 2025; Kansas City lost by 3, failing to cover as +1.5 underdogs (ESPN box score).
“We lay the 6.5 with Detroit.”
DET 52, CHI 21 — Lions beat Bears 52-21 on Sept 14, 2025; Detroit won by 31, easily covering as -6.5 favorites (ESPN box score).
“Give me Seattle plus the three and a half.”
SEA 31, PIT 17 — Seahawks beat Steelers 31-17 on Sept 14, 2025; Seattle won outright, easily covering as +3.5 underdogs (ESPN box score).
“The total here is 243.5 passing yards for Patrick Mahomes. Joe, do we go more or less? Less. Last year's two meetings were decided by seven points and two points respectively. In those games, Mahomes threw for 245 and 210. Why? The Chargers won the time of possession battle. They want to run the football. They want to keep Mahomes off the field. They're better equipped to do that this year with Omari and Hampton at running back. I think Mahomes goes under here. Remember, no Rishi Rice. How about the most famous football player on planet Earth? Travis Kelsey, 48 and a half receiving yards, more or less. Less. The Chargers are really good defending the opposing tight end position, but this is more about Kelsey. He's going to be 36 years old next month, and the numbers are in decline. Not so much the targets and receptions. The opportunities are there, but the yards per route run, the yards after catch, the big plays aren't. That's what's going to hurt them. And then finally on the other side, Justin Herbert, beginning the season, one and a half touchdown passes is the number. Less here as well.”
LAC 27, KC 21 — Parlay busts on two legs in the Chargers' 27-21 win over the Chiefs in Sao Paulo on Sept 5, 2025: Patrick Mahomes threw for 258 yards (over 243.5, leg lost) and Justin Herbert threw 3 TD passes (over 1.5, leg lost); Travis Kelce's 47 receiving yards stayed under 48.5 (leg won), but the parlay needs all three legs to win (ESPN box score). (Mahomes 258 pass yds; Kelce 47 rec yds; Herbert 3 pass TD)
“and bet over 7.5 wins.”
7-9-1 — The Cowboys finished the 2025 regular season 7-9-1, under the 7.5-win over.
“ESPN Bet Sportsbook. So, Joe, let's start with Colorado. We were just talking about Jadour Sanders. Dion, of course, still there. Their total is five and a half wins. What do you think? Less, but I wouldn't be aggressive with it.”
3-9 — Colorado finished the 2025 season 3-9 (1-8 Big 12), comfortably under the 5.5-win line.
“at least according to the preseason poll, Texas. Their total, Joe, at ESPN Bet Sportsbook is 10.5 wins. You go more or less? less and this is one where i'd get aggressive 10 and a half remember bowl games don't count”
9-3 regular season (10-3 overall) — Texas went 9-3 in the 2025 regular season (10-3 with the Citrus Bowl win over Michigan), under the 10.5-win line either way the total is counted.
“A lot of people very high on Clemson this year, Joe. Their total at ESPN Bet Sportsbook is nine and a half wins. What do you think? More.”
7-5 regular season (7-6 overall) — Clemson went 7-5 in the 2025 regular season (7-6 with the Pinstripe Bowl loss to Penn State), under the 9.5-win over.
“but the Sixers are 11-1 to win the Eastern Conference.”
The Philadelphia 76ers did not win the 2025-26 Eastern Conference; they were swept 4-0 by the New York Knicks in the conference semifinals, and the Knicks went on to win the East and the 2026 NBA Finals over the Spurs in five games. (Knicks swept 76ers 4-0 in East semis; Knicks won East, then beat Spurs 4-1 in the 2026 Finals)
“Yankees A's play tonight. The unders eight and a half.”
NYY 3, ATH 0 — The Yankees beat the Athletics 3-0 on June 27, 2025 (combined 3 runs), under the 8.5 total, so the under cashes (ESPN box score).
“Toporia's method of victory to win by knockout, technical knockout, or DQ is minus 185.”
Ilia Topuria knocked out Charles Oliveira by KO (punches) at 2:27 of Round 1 at UFC 317 to win the vacant lightweight title, so the KO/TKO/DQ method bet cashes. (Topuria def. Oliveira by KO (punches), Round 1, 2:27)
“Tyrese Haliburton not showing up in the first quarter. That's how you bet it. Under three and a half points, under one and a half rebounds.”
IND 108, OKC 91 — Tyrese Haliburton scored 4 first-quarter points (a free throw and a 3-pointer at the 4:16 mark) before being subbed out for the rest of Q1, over the 3.5 line, so the under busts (ESPN play-by-play, Game 6, Pacers 108-91 Thunder). (Haliburton Q1: 4 pts (1 FT, 1 three-pointer))
“Under three and a half points, under one and a half rebounds. Greeny, even when healthy, he's struggling in a big way in the first quarter. Averaging less than three points per game. Averaging less than two rebounds per game in the first.”
IND 108, OKC 91 — Tyrese Haliburton grabbed 1 defensive rebound in the first quarter (at 10:54) and no others before being subbed out, under the 1.5 line, so the under covers (ESPN play-by-play, Game 6, Pacers 108-91 Thunder). (Haliburton Q1: 1 rebound)
“Joe. Jump in here really quick. Joe Fortenball with a very quick best bet. What do we like from the travelers. Deacon Bradley, 33-1 to win, top 10 plus 300.”
Keegan Bradley won the 2025 Travelers Championship outright at -15 (265), one shot ahead of Russell Henley and Tommy Fleetwood at -14, so the outright bet cashes. (Bradley finished 1st at -15 (265); Henley/Fleetwood T2 at -14)
“Deacon Bradley, 33-1 to win, top 10 plus 300. It's a limited field here, fewer than 80 golfers the key.”
Keegan Bradley won the 2025 Travelers Championship outright at -15, which is also a top-10 finish, so the top-10 bet cashes. (Bradley finished 1st (top-10) at -15 (265))
“Joe, Jalen Williams tonight, 23 and a half points. What do you think? Less.”
IND 108, OKC 91 — Jalen Williams scored 16 points in Game 6 of the 2025 NBA Finals, under the 23.5 line, so the under covers (ESPN box score). (Jalen Williams: 16 points)
“Benedict Matherin's total is 11.5 points. Which way do we go? More.”
IND 108, OKC 91 — Bennedict Mathurin scored 2 points in Game 6 of the 2025 NBA Finals, well under the 11.5 line, so the over busts (ESPN box score). (Bennedict Mathurin: 2 points)
“His total is 15.5 points plus assists, more or less? More.”
IND 108, OKC 91 — T.J. McConnell had 12 points and 6 assists (18 points+assists) in Game 6 of the 2025 NBA Finals, over the 15.5 line, so the over covers (ESPN box score). (T.J. McConnell: 12 pts + 6 ast = 18)
“Best bet Game 5. Best bet Game 5, Panthers. All right? I like the price, even money.”
EDM 2, FLA 5 — Florida Panthers beat Edmonton Oilers 5-2 in Stanley Cup Final Game 5 (June 14, 2025), so the Panthers moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“Let's play a game of More or Less. SGA, points, rebounds, assists, 47.5, More or Less. That would be a more.”
OKC 111, IND 104 — In NBA Finals Game 4 (June 13, 2025, Thunder 111-104 Pacers), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 35 points, 3 rebounds, 0 assists (38 combined), under the 47.5 points+rebounds+assists line (ESPN box score). (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 35 pts, 3 reb, 0 ast (38 combined))
“Number two Jalen Williams Points and assists 26 and a half more. This is another one where I would look to the over.”
OKC 111, IND 104 — In NBA Finals Game 4 (June 13, 2025, Thunder 111-104 Pacers), Jalen Williams had 27 points and 3 assists (30 combined), over the 26.5 points+assists line (ESPN box score). (Jalen Williams: 27 pts, 3 ast (30 combined))
“Tyrese Haliburton, 17 and a half points, more or less. This is less.”
OKC 111, IND 104 — In NBA Finals Game 4 (June 13, 2025, Thunder 111-104 Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton scored 18 points, over the 17.5 line, so the under busts (ESPN box score). (Tyrese Haliburton: 18 points)
“When it comes to the game itself, let's go with Oklahoma City minus the 9.5 in that game.”
IND 111, OKC 110 — The Pacers beat the Thunder 111-110 in NBA Finals Game 1, so Oklahoma City lost outright and Thunder -9.5 busts by 10.5 points (ESPN box score).
“But where we're at with this is you want to make two bets against Halliburton because that isn't factored into the pricing. Nine and a half assists is based on what he's done all year. Season average, this is a step up in class.”
IND 111, OKC 110 — Tyrese Haliburton had 6 assists in NBA Finals Game 1 (Pacers 111, Thunder 110), under the 9.5 line (ESPN box score). (Tyrese Haliburton: 6 assists)
“Season average, this is a step up in class. 27 and a half points plus assists, that's based on what he's done all year. This is a step up in class. That's what you want to find. Pricing based on things that don't have very much to do at all with what we're seeing in this game. OKC is not the average. It's priced as the average. That's why we play the under. That's the value.”
IND 111, OKC 110 — Tyrese Haliburton had 14 pts, 10 reb, 6 ast (30 PRA) in NBA Finals Game 1 (Pacers 111, Thunder 110), over the 27.5 line, so the under busts (ESPN box score). (Tyrese Haliburton: 30 PRA (14 pts, 10 reb, 6 ast))
“Joe Fortenbaugh, one-and-a-half threes for Pascal Siakam tonight, more or less? More, because the opportunities will be there.”
IND 111, OKC 110 — Pascal Siakam made 1 of 2 three-pointers in NBA Finals Game 1 (Pacers 111, Thunder 110), under the 1.5 line, so the over busts (ESPN box score). (Pascal Siakam: 1 three (1-2 3PT))
“Now what it means for Eagles fans and the team is a different story I think when we talk about this season and beyond Joe Fortmore is wearing the Eagles jacket I know So perfect for this The line for Saquon rushing yards this year He won over 2000 a year ago. The number is 1400.5. So 1401 would put it at the over. What do you like? It's an insane number. It's an insane number. The bet would be the under.”
Saquon Barkley finished the 2025 regular season with 1,140 rushing yards, under the 1400.5 line (ESPN player stats). (Saquon Barkley 2025: 1,140 rushing yards)
“I've got OKC minus nine and a half in game one. What is your preference there? History not on the side of Indiana here. I would lay the big number.”
IND 111, OKC 110 — The Pacers beat the Thunder 111-110 in NBA Finals Game 1, so Oklahoma City lost outright and Thunder -9.5 busts by 10.5 points (ESPN box score).
“I would look at Oakley C minus two and a half games. No one wants to lay the minus 700 because if you get an injury or two, the whole thing goes sideways on you and it costs you a lot. But you can play the Thunder to win by two and a half games.”
Thunder def. Pacers 4-3 (Game 7: OKC 103, IND 91) — Oklahoma City won the 2025 NBA Finals over Indiana 4 games to 3 (clinching Game 7, Thunder 103, Pacers 91, June 22), a series margin of only 1 game, short of the 2.5-game cover (ESPN box score).
“Florida in game two, right around plus 110.”
Panthers 5, Oilers 4 (2OT) — The Florida Panthers beat the Edmonton Oilers 5-4 in double overtime in Stanley Cup Final Game 2 on June 6, 2025, so the Panthers moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“And then for the series, I would bet Florida at the adjusted price, plus 185.”
Panthers def. Oilers 4-2 (Game 6: FLA 5, EDM 1) — The Florida Panthers defeated the Edmonton Oilers 4 games to 2 to win the 2025 Stanley Cup Final, clinching with a 5-1 win in Game 6 on June 17, 2025 (ESPN box score).
“Pacers big. I'd lay the three-and-a-half.”
IND 125, NY 108 — The Pacers beat the Knicks 125-108 in ECF Game 6, a 17-point margin that clears Indiana -3.5 (ESPN box score).
“Give me the Panthers at minus 105.”
Oilers 4, Panthers 3 (OT) — The Edmonton Oilers beat the Florida Panthers 4-3 in overtime in Stanley Cup Final Game 1 on June 4, 2025, so the Panthers moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“[46:05] I think that's the best bet. [46:06] I saw him at plus 550. [46:07] You give me 7-1, I'm going to make the play. [46:09] It feels like it's their year. [46:10] You guys just touched on it. [46:11] Number one, the schedule. [46:12] Second easiest in the NFL. [46:14] How often does a team with a 13-4 record [46:16] that went to the AFC Championship game [46:18] get the second easiest schedule in the NFL? [46:21] Greeny, all due respect, you know the division's [46:23] not going to offer any resistance whatsoever. [46:25] So worst case, they're hosting a playoff game in the opening round. [46:28] But the key to this entire analysis, Kansas City is no longer gatekeeping the AFC. [46:32] Very few people will agree with that. [46:34] You heard everything from Tannenbaum. [46:36] You heard everything from Graz. [46:37] The one thing you didn't hear, 17 straight wins in one score games, 12-0 last year. [46:42] That's going to fall off. [46:43] And when it does, they won't be in the way of the Bills. [46:45] This is the year they get it done.”
Broncos 33, Bills 30 (OT) — The Buffalo Bills were eliminated in the AFC Divisional Round, losing 33-30 in overtime to the Denver Broncos on January 17, 2026, and never reached or won the AFC Championship (ESPN schedule/results).
“Take out your pitching wedge. Swing it easy. Oklahoma City minus three and a half.”
MIN 143, OKC 101 — Minnesota blew out Oklahoma City 143-101 in Game 3; the Thunder lost outright, so -3.5 busts by a wide margin (ESPN box score).
“Karl-Anthony Towns over 23 points Prop was 22 in game one He scores 35 points Naturally the bookmakers move the price up to 23 and a half Still think there value going over”
IND 114, NY 109 — Karl-Anthony Towns scored 20 points as the Knicks fell to the Pacers 114-109 in Game 2; under the 23.5 line, so over busts (ESPN box score). (Karl-Anthony Towns: 20 points)
“How are you looking at the total tonight, which is 225.5? Big total. I'd still play the over here.”
IND 114, NY 109 — Pacers beat Knicks 114-109 in Game 2, a combined 223 points; under the 225.5 total, so the over busts (ESPN box score).
“Tyrese Haliburton to win Eastern Conference Finals MVP is minus 120.”
Pascal Siakam of the Pacers won the 2025 Larry Bird Trophy as Eastern Conference Finals MVP after Indiana beat New York in the series; Tyrese Haliburton did not win the award (Wikipedia).
“The five and a half is obvious.”
IND 114, NY 109 — Pacers beat Knicks 114-109 in Game 2, a 5-point margin; Indiana +5.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“That goes without saying when you going to pick them to win You talk about the money line plus 210 I like that price as well I would not play the Knicks on the money line I understand the reason for the bounce back tonight I think the Knicks are better as the hunter than the hunted”
IND 114, NY 109 — Pacers beat Knicks 114-109 outright in Game 2; the Indiana moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“The over-under set at 2.5. The under, interestingly enough, plus 115. So how many games do we see Oklahoma City losing the rest of the way? I'd be looking at the under here. Teddy Atlas, the famous boxing trainer, once said, when you become a champion, you instantly become 30% better. It's about clearing this mental hurdle and finding another level to your game. The Thunder haven't won a championship yet, but after going through the darkness of a seven-game series and winning against Denver, I think they've unlocked another level. I don't see them losing three or more times the rest of the way. I bet the under there.”
After the Thunder's 2-0 series lead at pick time, Oklahoma City lost Game 3 (101-143), won Game 4 (128-126) and won Game 5 (124-94) to close out the Western Conference Finals, going 1-2 the rest of the way with only 1 loss; under 2.5 more losses covers (ESPN box scores). (Thunder rest-of-series: lost Game 3 101-143, won Game 4 128-126, won Game 5 124-94 (1 loss))
“Let's start with OG Ananobi going over 14 and a half points.”
NY 119, BOS 81 — Anunoby scored 23 points in New York's 119-81 Game 6 win over Boston on May 16, 2025, clearing the 14.5 line (ESPN box score). (OG Anunoby: 23 points)
“Let's look at rebounds. Drew Holiday over four and a half.”
NY 119, BOS 81 — Holiday grabbed 4 rebounds in New York's 119-81 Game 6 win over Boston on May 16, 2025, missing the 4.5 line (ESPN box score). (Jrue Holiday: 4 rebounds)
“Let play the next minus two and a half in this game tonight First time they been a favorite in this series And for good reason 93 total games played this year Game five against the Celtics was their worst shooting performance of all 93 games 35 That not happening again Derek White”
NY 119, BOS 81 — The Knicks won 119-81 at Boston on May 16, 2025, a 38-point margin that easily covers the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“The commander's total is nine and a half wins. Fortinball, which way do we go? I would say less here.”
Commanders finished the 2025 regular season 5-12, under the 9.5 win total (ESPN schedule). (5-12)
“Joe, the Giants' win total is just five and a half. Can we go more or less? We go more.”
Giants finished the 2025 regular season 4-13, under the 5.5 win total (ESPN schedule). (4-13)
“I thought they had a great draft all the way around One more win total for you here Joe The Steeler total is at eight and a half What do you think I go less because there two realities here right Reality one”
Steelers finished the 2025 regular season 10-7, over the 8.5 win total, so the under lost (ESPN schedule). (10-7)
“Tonight, I am gonna lay the three with Minnesota over the Lakers. Sorry, Canty, but you probably know that I'm right here.”
MIN 116, LAL 104 — Timberwolves beat Lakers 116-104 in Game 3; Minnesota margin +12 vs -3 line, covers (ESPN box score).
“I like Houston tonight. Specifically I like Stephen Curry within the scoring prop to go under 25 and a half points”
HOU 109, GS 94 — Stephen Curry: 20 points vs under 25.5; covers (ESPN box score). (Stephen Curry: 20 points)
“We're going to start with the Rockets minus the three here. Minus the three and a half”
HOU 109, GS 94 — Houston Rockets won 109-94, margin +15 vs line -3.5; covers (ESPN box score).
“Ten and a half points. This all comes down to pricing. Game one, Boston was a 12-point favorite. Now you're telling me Jason Tatum is doubtful worth of wrist injury and might not play. We've only moved the spread one and a half points. This gambit, it's all about finding value, like you with that haircut. Value, okay? Ten and a half is the opportunity. We're taking the magic tonight.”
BOS 109, ORL 100 — Boston Celtics beat Orlando Magic 109-100; Magic lost by 9, covering +10.5 (ESPN box score).
“Knicks, Pistons, tomorrow. Now I want to do the Knicks. All right. I like the Knicks minus the one and a half.”
NY 118, DET 116 — New York Knicks beat Detroit Pistons 118-116, margin +2 vs line -1.5; covers (ESPN box score).
“Men's side, Saturday night, best bet, Florida-Auburn. Auburn plus the two and a half.”
Florida 79, Auburn 73 — Florida beat Auburn 79-73 in the Final Four; Auburn lost by 6, failing to cover Auburn +2.5 (ESPN).
“On the women's side, best bet, Texas, South Carolina. Low scoring game, under 124.5.”
South Carolina beat Texas 74-57 in the Women's Final Four; the combined 131 points went over the 124.5 total (ESPN). (Final: South Carolina 74, Texas 57 (131 combined))
“And then finally tonight, Connecticut and UCLA. As great as UConn has been this season, 7.5 is too many points”
UConn 85, UCLA 51 — UConn routed UCLA 85-51 in the Women's Final Four; UCLA lost by 34, failing to cover UCLA +7.5 (ESPN).
“do see an opportunity with Houston at five And a half.”
DUKE 67, HOU 70 — Houston beat Duke 70-67 in the Final Four; Houston's +3 margin covers +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“And let's start with the first game of the night, Michigan State, Ole Miss. Tom Izzo, Spartans, three-and-a-half-point favorites. Joe, where are you looking here? Laying the points with Sparty for two key reasons.”
MSU 73, OLE MISS 70 — Michigan State beat Ole Miss 73-70 in the 2025 Sweet 16, a 3-point margin that falls short of the -3.5 spread.
“Michigan State forward Jackson Kohler over 6.5 rebounds. Now, we already talked about how much Ole Miss struggles on the glass. Kohler's averaging 7.5 rebounds per game this season”
Jaxon Kohler recorded just 2 rebounds (0 points, 18 minutes) in Michigan State's 73-70 Sweet 16 win over Ole Miss, well under the 6.5-rebound line. (2 REB, 0 PTS, 18 MIN)
“Okay last game we got the number one seed Houston taking on Purdue Scoring might be hard to come by You know Houston can get after you defensively Over, under, listed at 131.5. What do you think, Joe? The full game under is worth a look. I'm going to shrink this to the first half, opening 20 minutes to go under 61.5 points.”
HOU 29, PUR 31 (1H) — Houston led Purdue 29-31 at halftime (60 combined) in the 2025 Sweet 16, under the 61.5 first-half total.
“Of course, the Spartans, three and a half point favorite tonight. Who ya got? Michigan State minus the points.”
Michigan State 73, Ole Miss 70 — Michigan State beat Ole Miss 73-70 in the Sweet 16, a 3-point margin that fell short of Michigan State -3.5 (ESPN).
“Joe, who you got there? I like Kentucky plus the four and a half here.”
Tennessee 78, Kentucky 65 — Tennessee beat Kentucky 78-65 in the Sweet 16; Kentucky lost by 13, failing to cover Kentucky +4.5 (ESPN).
“Who you got there? Michigan plus the 8.5 or 9. Smaller bet because Auburn could erupt at any moment.”
Auburn 78, Michigan 65 — Auburn beat Michigan 78-65 in the Sweet 16; Michigan lost by 13, failing to cover Michigan +8.5 (ESPN).
“Right now, ESPN bet is the Yankees at plus 170 to miss the playoffs. Joe, what do you think? I'd go ahead and bet that.”
Yankees finished 2025 at 94-68, clinched a Wild Card berth, beat Boston in the Wild Card Series, then lost the ALDS to Toronto 3-1 -- they made the playoffs, so the 'miss the playoffs' bet loses. (Yankees finished 94-68, lost ALDS to Blue Jays)
“ESPN Bet has their over-under win total. 82 and a hook. Which way are you going? This is an under bet. It opened 83 and a half. It immediately took under money and for good reason.”
Royals finished the 2025 season 82-80 (82 wins), under the 82.5 win total. (KC finished 82-80 in 2025)
“Blake Snell to lead Major League Baseball in strikeouts is priced at 16 to 1. I like that opportunity there, all right?”
Garrett Crochet led MLB in strikeouts in 2025 with 255 K (18-5, 2.59 ERA in 32 starts for Boston), not Blake Snell. (2025 MLB strikeout leader: Garrett Crochet, 255 K)
“of the night. Alabama and BYU. The Tide are favored by 5.5. Joe, which team do you like and why? I'll take the Cougs plus the points here.”
ALA 113, BYU 88 — Alabama beat BYU 113-88 in the 2025 Sweet 16, a 25-point margin that busts BYU +5.5.
“Yeah, the Arizona team total is 72.5, so this is a bet on how many points Arizona will score, over or under 72.5. I'd go under.”
DUKE 100, ARIZ 93 — Duke beat Arizona 100-93 in the 2025 Sweet 16; Arizona scored 93, well over the 72.5 team-total line (bet was under).
“Texas A&M is favored by seven and a half points. Yale won a 13 versus four game last year. Which way are you going? I'm going to go with Yale here plus the points.”
TA&M 80, YALE 71 — Texas A&M beat Yale 80-71 in the NCAA Tournament Round of 64; Yale +7.5 lost by 9, busts (ESPN).
“The total is set at 154.5. Joe, what do you like in this game? Money's been flowing on the over. We're following the money over 154.5.”
PUR 75, HPU 63 — Purdue beat High Point 75-63 in the NCAA Tournament Round of 64; combined score was 138, under 154.5, over busts (ESPN).
“the Big Ten tournament champion is Michigan. They're only a two-and-a-half-point favorite against UC San Diego. Joe, are you thinking upset? Hold on for a second here, Greeny. I'm getting some breaking news. Hey, Schefter, according to sources, Michigan going down in this one, my friend. Brutal spot for your Wolverines.”
MICH 68, UCSD 65 — Michigan beat UC San Diego 68-65 in the NCAA Tournament Round of 64, avoiding the upset; UC San Diego ML busts (ESPN).
“the better bet that I found was will the titans stay at the first pick? Which team will make the first pick? That was minus one seventy, minus one seventy five is where I played it. That's the one I hammered.”
The Tennessee Titans kept the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft and selected QB Cam Ward, cashing the bet (Wikipedia, 2025 NFL Draft).
“The Lakers have won 18 of their last 21 games, and they're a six-and-a-half-point dog in Boston on Saturday night. Doesn't seem right. Big red flag. I think the Celtics are the play, and Bobby Marks just drilled the handicap.”
BOS 111, LAL 101 — Celtics beat Lakers 111-101 behind Jayson Tatum's 40 points; Celtics -6.5 margin was +10, covers (ESPN).
“They're a seven-and-a-half point dog tonight. We'll lay it with the Clippers.”
LAC 105, NY 95 — Clippers beat Knicks 105-95 behind James Harden's 27 points; Clippers -7.5 margin was +10, covers (ESPN).
“Lakers-Celtics, best bet. What do you got? Great promotion on behalf of both Bobby and yourself, Graz. I would lay the six and a half with the Celtics here.”
BOS 111, LAL 101 — Celtics beat Lakers 111-101 behind Jayson Tatum's 40 points; Celtics -6.5 margin was +10, covers (ESPN).
“I'd look to the Tar Heels plus the 11.5. Rivalry game at home.”
DUKE 82, UNC 69 — Duke beat North Carolina 82-69 behind Cooper Flagg; North Carolina +11.5 lost by 13, busts (ESPN).
“Going against the fan favorite. In the main event, Magomed Ankaliev's right around minus 105 against Alex Pereira. Pereira's been an absolute beast. The fans love him. four straight wins, but those four straight wins have involved him standing at the center of the octagon and banging with the opposition that wants to trade. This guy right here, Ankolaev, he's got the blueprint for how you beat someone like Pereira. You've got to be able to wrestle. You've got to be able to get him to the mat. You've got to take him outside of his comfort zone. He actually opens a minus 170 favorite before the market moved the price. I think we're getting a very good price on Ankolaev. I'd play him at minus 105.”
Magomed Ankalaev defeated Alex Pereira by unanimous decision (49-46, 48-47, 48-47) at UFC 313 on March 8, 2025 to win the light heavyweight title. (Unanimous decision win for Ankalaev (49-46, 48-47, 48-47))
“Clippers, Lakers, what are you looking at? I would lay the four and a half with the Clippers here.”
LAL 106, LAC 102 — Lakers beat Clippers 106-102; Clippers -4.5 margin was only -4, busts by half a point (ESPN).
“We're going to lay the points with the Grizzlies, which is not going to make anyone around here happy at all. [34:44] But if you remember, at the Garden on January 27th, the Knicks get throttled or throttled the Grizz by about 37. [34:50] A little bit of payback tonight. [34:51] Keep in mind, big defensive struggles for the Knicks. [34:54] And on top of that they are a dog of four or more tonight Four times this season the Knicks have been a dog of four or more In those games they are 0 losing by an average of 20 points per game [35:05] We'll lean into the trend. [35:06] We'll play the Grizzlies tonight.”
NY 114, MEM 113 — Knicks beat Grizzlies 114-113 on a late Anunoby three; Grizzlies -4 margin was only -1, busts (ESPN).
“We'll take the Celtics minus two and a half. I think it's a cheap price.”
CLE 123, BOS 116 — Cavaliers beat Celtics 123-116 in a comeback led by Donovan Mitchell's 41 points; Celtics -2.5 margin was -7, busts (ESPN).
“If you wanna have some action, this is fun. You lay a little juice, but it's Harrison Butcher of the Chiefs over one and a half made field goals. I think you're laying, like, minus one seventy.”
Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker attempted no field goals in Super Bowl LIX (ESPN box score lists no Kansas City kicking stats, all Chiefs scoring came via touchdowns), so over 1.5 made field goals lost. (Butker 0 made field goals)
“We're going over 199.5 passing yards. Take a look at Jalen Hurts against man coverage this year.”
PHI 40, KC 22 — Jalen Hurts threw for 221 yards (17/22) in the Eagles' 40-22 Super Bowl LIX win over the Chiefs, clearing the over 199.5 passing yards line (ESPN box score). (Jalen Hurts: 17/22, 221 pass yds)
“How many passes will Patrick Mahomes complete in this game? The prop is set at 23.5. We're going to bet the over.”
PHI 40, KC 22 — Patrick Mahomes completed 21 of 32 passes for 257 yards in the Chiefs' 40-22 Super Bowl LIX loss to the Eagles, missing the over 23.5 completions line (ESPN box score). (Patrick Mahomes: 21/32, 257 pass yds)
“But the alternate receiving yards, 125 or more, pays 7-1. So why would we want to highlight A.J. Brown, right? We talked about this earlier. The Kansas City Chiefs deploy man coverage at the fifth highest rate of any defense in the NFL. Look at how A.J. Brown stacks up against man coverage compared to the rest of the league. Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, you name it, number one in yards per game. He's got a quarterback in Jalen Hurts who loves to throw the fade down the sidelines. We're probably good for two or three of those shots during the game. So I would take Brown 69.5 receiving yards over, 125.5 over.”
PHI 40, KC 22 — A.J. Brown caught 3 passes for 43 receiving yards in the Eagles' 40-22 Super Bowl LIX win over the Chiefs, missing the over 125.5 receiving yards line (ESPN box score). (A.J. Brown: 3 rec, 43 yds)
“How many times will Josh Allen have to throw the ball in this game? The prop is set at 31 and a half. I'd play the over.”
KC 32, BUF 29 — Josh Allen attempted 34 passes, completing 22, in the Bills' 32-29 AFC Championship loss to the Chiefs, clearing the over 31.5 pass attempts line (ESPN box score). (Josh Allen: 22/34 passing)
“Xavier Worthy over three and a half rushing yards rushing yards. Kansas City likes the wrinkle of handing the ball to pass catchers. A pass catcher has had at least one rushing attempt in 20 of Kansas City's last 21 playoff games.”
KC 32, BUF 29 — In the Chiefs' 32-29 AFC Championship win over Buffalo, Xavier Worthy rushed for 16 yards on 2 carries, clearing the over 3.5 line (ESPN box score). (Xavier Worthy: 16 rushing yards on 2 carries)
“Lamar Jackson's rushing prop here, Greeny. 49 and a half yards. We're playing that over.”
BUF 27-25 BAL — Lamar Jackson rushed for 39 yards (6 carries) in the Ravens' 27-25 AFC Divisional loss to the Bills, under the 49.5 over line (CBS Sports box score). (Lamar Jackson: 6 rush, 39 rush yds)
“but we do attack the angle of going under 41 and a half total points.”
KC 23-14 HOU — Kansas City Chiefs beat Houston Texans 23-14 in the AFC Divisional round; combined 37 points is under the 41.5 total (CBS Sports box score).
“A.J. Brown under 69.5 receiving yards.”
PHI 28-22 LAR — A.J. Brown caught 2 passes for 14 receiving yards in the Eagles' 28-22 NFC Divisional win over the Rams, under the 69.5 line (CBS Sports box score). (A.J. Brown: 2 rec, 14 receiving yds)
“under 55.5 total points.”
WSH 45-31 DET — Washington Commanders beat Detroit Lions 45-31 in the NFC Divisional round; combined 76 points is over the 55.5 total (CBS Sports box score).
“And apply it all together and go under 51.5 total points.”
BUF 27-25 BAL — Buffalo Bills beat Baltimore Ravens 27-25 in the AFC Divisional round; combined 52 points is over the 51.5 total (CBS Sports box score).
“Another lower-scoring game, under 43-and-a-half.”
PHI 28-22 LAR — Philadelphia Eagles beat Los Angeles Rams 28-22 in the NFC Divisional round; combined 50 points is over the 43.5 total (CBS Sports box score).
“Baltimore over Buffalo.”
BUF 27-25 BAL — Buffalo Bills beat Baltimore Ravens 27-25 in the AFC Divisional round; the Ravens' moneyline bet busts (CBS Sports box score).
“What is your second play of the week? I think the first half under, there's another good bet as well if you want to pile on top, 25 and a half.”
PHI 13-10 LAR (1st half); PHI 28-22 LAR (final) — In the Eagles' 28-22 NFC Divisional win over the Rams, the first-half score was Eagles 13, Rams 10 (combined 23), under the 25.5 first-half total (CBS Sports box score quarter breakdown).
“Playing the five with Philadelphia, they're rested.”
PHI 22-10 GB — Philadelphia Eagles beat Green Bay Packers 22-10 in the NFC Wild Card game; Eagles' margin of +12 covers the -5 spread (CBS Sports box score).
“Low-scoring game, under 43.5.”
BAL 28-14 PIT — Baltimore Ravens beat Pittsburgh Steelers 28-14 in the AFC Wild Card game; combined 42 points is under the 43.5 total (CBS Sports box score).
“And then let go to tonight college game again here on ESPN 730 Eastern Ohio State Texas for a chance to play for the national championship What your best bet Laying it with the Buckeyes It sitting around six Now that Ohio State offense has been unstoppable in the playoffs so far”
OSU 28-14 TEX — Ohio State beat Texas 28-14 in the CFP semifinal (Cotton Bowl) on January 10, 2025; Ohio State's margin of +14 covers the -6 spread (Wikipedia CFP article).
“Steelers-Ravens under 43.5.”
BAL 28-14 PIT — Baltimore Ravens beat Pittsburgh Steelers 28-14 in the AFC Wild Card game; combined 42 points is under the 43.5 total (CBS Sports box score).
“Buffalo minus the 8-and-a-half over Denver.”
BUF 31-7 DEN — Buffalo Bills beat Denver Broncos 31-7 in the AFC Wild Card game; Bills' margin of +24 covers the -8.5 spread (CBS Sports box score).
“Texans Chargers under 42.5 points.”
HOU 32-12 LAC — Texans beat Chargers 32-12 in the AFC Wild Card game; combined 44 points is over the 42.5 total (CBS Sports box score).
“the wink wink play will be the Texas team total. It's 23 and a half points. So we're betting just on how many points Texas scores, and we're going under 23 and a half points.”
OSU 28, TEX 14 — Texas scored 14 points in the Cotton Bowl loss to Ohio State; 14 is well under the 23.5 team-total line, so Under cashes (Wikipedia, citing official CFP game record).
“This is going to be an under 46.5.”
27-24 — Notre Dame beat Penn State 27-24 in the Orange Bowl; combined 51 points goes over the 46.5 total.
“So Minnesota in the first half to go over 13.5 points.”
31-9 — Minnesota scored 6 points in the first half, under the 13.5-point line, so the over lost (ESPN box score). (Minnesota first-half points: 6)
“I'd lay the six with the Buckeyes.”
28-14 — Ohio State beat Texas 28-14 in the Cotton Bowl; the 14-point margin clears the -6 spread.
“Notre Dame minus the one and a half.”
27-24 — Notre Dame beat Penn State 27-24 in the Orange Bowl; the 3-point margin clears the -1.5 spread.
“Again, the Lions are a two-and-a-half point favorite. What do you say? I like Minnesota plus the points.”
31-9 — Minnesota lost to Detroit 31-9 in Week 18, a 22-point margin that fails to cover the +2.5 spread.
“Pittsburgh plus two and a half.”
17-19 — Pittsburgh lost to Cincinnati 19-17 in Week 18, a 2-point margin that covers the +2.5 spread.
“We're gonna bet that Minnesota scores more than 30 points. Over 30 and a half, that's plus one sixty. We want a nice little payout here. This Detroit defense, the last four weeks with all these injuries, historically bad.”
DET 31, MIN 9 — Detroit beat Minnesota 31-9 on Jan 5, 2025, clinching the NFC North; the Vikings' 9 points falls well short of the 30.5 team-total Over line (ESPN).
“Denver plus three and a half is the bet for a couple key reasons.”
CIN 30-24 DEN (OT) — The Broncos lost 30-24 in overtime to the Bengals on Dec 28, 2024, a 6-point margin that busts the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“You want a bonus pick Bo Nix over 224 passing yards He should feast against this defense”
CIN 30-24 DEN (OT) — Bo Nix threw for 219 passing yards (24/31) in the Broncos' loss to the Bengals on Dec 28, 2024, falling short of the 224 line (ESPN box score). (Bo Nix: 24/31, 219 passing yards)
“We'll go ahead and take the nine and a half for the Jets.”
BUF 40-14 NYJ — The Jets lost 40-14 to the Bills on Dec 29, 2024, a 26-point margin that busts the +9.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Packers as the favorite, minus 3.5, plus 150.”
MIN 27-25 GB — The Packers lost 27-25 to the Vikings on Dec 29, 2024, a 2-point margin that busts the -3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'll take the three and a half with Denver in this matchup.”
CIN 30-24 DEN (OT) — The Broncos lost 30-24 in overtime to the Bengals on Dec 28, 2024, a 6-point margin that busts the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“We're betting Colorado to lead at the half, but we're betting BYU to win the full game. Pays 8-1, Graz. $10 bet returns 80 in profit.”
BYU 36-14 Colorado — BYU led 20-0 at halftime (Colorado did not lead) and won the Alamo Bowl 36-14 on Dec 28, 2024; the Colorado-to-lead-at-half leg failed (ESPN recap). (Halftime: BYU 20, Colorado 0)
“We'll play Miami in the first half, minus 2.5 points.”
Miami led Iowa State 31-28 at halftime of the Pop-Tarts Bowl on Dec 28, 2024, a 3-point margin that covers -2.5 for the first-half bet (Miami later lost the full game 42-41, ESPN box score). (Halftime: Miami 31, Iowa State 28)
“But ESPN Bet has a special bet up right now. Will Cam Ward throw at least one touchdown pass in the first quarter, plus 150? I think they come out slinging in this game. So Miami in the first half, Ward to throw a TD in the first quarter. We cash both those, and then it doesn't matter what happens.”
Cam Ward threw a 4-yard touchdown pass to Jacolby George at 4:12 of the first quarter of the Pop-Tarts Bowl on Dec 28, 2024 (ESPN play-by-play). (Cam Ward 4-yd TD pass to Jacolby George, 1st quarter (4:12))
“So let's go under 44.5 total points.”
BAL 34, PIT 17 — Baltimore beat Pittsburgh 34-17 (combined 51 points) on Dec 21, 2024, busting the Under 44.5 total (ESPN box score).
“Under 46.5 is the play.”
OSU 42, TENN 17 — Ohio State routed Tennessee 42-17 (combined 59 points) in the CFP first round on Dec 21, 2024, busting the Under 46.5 total (ESPN).
“Philadelphia covers the three and a half.”
WSH 36, PHI 33 — Washington beat Philadelphia 36-33 on Dec 22, 2024; the Eagles lost outright, busting the -3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“The Chiefs are 20th in first quarter scoring. How are you going to cover two and a half points in the opening 30 minutes if you start slow? We like the Texans in the first half.”
KC 17, HOU 10 (1st half) — Kansas City led Houston 17-10 at halftime on Dec 21, 2024 (Texans margin -7), busting Texans first-half +2.5 (ESPN box score).
“and it pointed to the Jets plus the three. so we're going to play the Jets in this situation.”
NYJ 9, LAR 19 — The Rams beat the Jets 19-9 on Dec 22, 2024 (Jets margin -10), busting Jets +3 (ESPN box score).
“Clemson's team total, which means we're betting on how many points Clemson scores. The number is 19 and a half. We're betting under Clemson to score under 19 and a half points.”
TEX 38, CLEM 24 — Texas beat Clemson 38-24 in the CFP first round; Clemson scored 24, well over the 19.5 team-total line, so the Under busts (ESPN).
“Seattle comes away as the biggest loser from last night's game. At a price of plus 105 to miss the playoffs, that's the bet to make today.”
Seattle finished the 2024 season 10-7 and missed the playoffs, losing the NFC West to the Rams on a tiebreaker. (10-7, missed playoffs)
“against man coverage than A.J. Brown. It's a great matchup. It's a great price. We're going to go over 79.5 receiving yards.”
PHI 27, PIT 13 — A.J. Brown caught 8 passes for 110 receiving yards as the Eagles beat the Steelers 27-13, clearing his 79.5 yard over. (A.J. Brown: 110 receiving yards)
“best bet Steelers Eagles Joe Rock fight under 43 and a half points”
PHI 27, PIT 13 — Eagles beat Steelers 27-13; the combined 40 points cleared the under 43.5.
“They focus on Josh Allen's rushing prop over 39 and a half yards.”
BUF 48, DET 42 — Josh Allen rushed for 68 yards (11 carries) in the Bills' 48-42 win over the Lions, clearing his 39.5 yard over. (Josh Allen: 68 rushing yards)
“We're going to play the Panthers minus the three.”
DAL 30, CAR 14 — Cowboys beat Panthers 30-14; Carolina's -16 margin as favorite failed to cover Panthers -3.
“Total's 39-and-a-half. You've got to be a sadist to bet the over in these games. Call me a sadist. I'll bet the over in this game.”
NAVY 31, ARMY 13 — Navy beat Army 31-13; the combined 44 points cleared the 39.5 total.
“Houston in the first half against Miami. Spreads minus one and a half. Houston, one of the best first half teams in the NFL this year.”
HOU 13, MIA 6 (1H) — Texans led Dolphins 13-6 at halftime (final 20-12); Houston's first-half margin +7 covers the first-half -1.5 spread (ESPN box score linescore).
“We're going to buy on the Lions here. 14.5 is the win total. We're going to play the over.”
Detroit Lions finished the 2024 regular season 15-2, clearing the 14.5 over win total. (15-2 regular season record)
“I would lay the 2.5 for the Lions over the Bills.”
BUF 48, DET 42 — Bills beat Lions 48-42; Detroit's -6 margin as favorite failed to cover Lions -2.5.
“Who will finish with more rushing yards this season Saquon Barkley or the New York Giants as a team That is a prop bet that is available right now I can't imagine being John Mara and seeing that bet. It's such a slap in the face, is it not? Thing is, when you handicap this, the Giants are a small underdog to win this bet, minus 105. I would take the Giants.”
Saquon Barkley rushed for 2,005 yards with the Eagles in the 2024 regular season, far more than the Giants' team total of 1,783 rushing yards, so the Giants did not out-rush him. (Barkley (Eagles): 2,005 rush yds vs Giants (team): 1,783 rush yds)
“I think this is the buy low spot on Kansas City at a price of minus four.”
KC 19, LAC 17 — Chiefs beat Chargers 19-17 on a late field goal; KC's +2 margin fell short of the -4 spread.
“I'd start by laying the two and a half with Texas.”
UGA 22, TEX 19 — Georgia beat Texas 22-19 in overtime in the SEC Championship; Texas's -3 margin (loss) failed to cover -2.5.
“I'd also go over 49.5.”
UGA 22, TEX 19 — Georgia beat Texas 22-19 in the SEC Championship; the combined 41 points fell under the 49.5 total.
“I'm going to play Oregon minus the 3.5.”
ORE 45, PSU 37 — Oregon beat Penn State 45-37 in the Big Ten Championship; Oregon's +8 margin covered -3.5.
“You don't need to overthink this smalls. Just go ahead and lay it with Ohio State over Michigan. I think that's gonna be an absolute bloodbath. If Ryan Day was gonna sneak that touchdown in against Illinois or, excuse me, Indiana late last week to try to prove a point, he's gonna wanna prove a point here. This team has put it on him for the last few years. No hardball. They're down. They're weak. The spread's sitting out there around 20 and a half, 21. I think it's an absolute bludgeoning of the highest order. Now I could throw others at you. USC plus seven and a half against Notre Dame. I think that's a slippery spot for the Irish. Auburn plus 11 and a half against Alabama, I'd look to the dog. A and M plus the five over Texas, I'd look to the dog there. Kansas has been very good to us laying the one and a half against Baylor. All plays I like, but I don't see any reason to do anything other than pull the pitching wedge out and swing it easy to try to get the ball up on the green. So we're putting for birdie. We're gonna lay the points 21 with Ohio State. I think it's an absolute bludgeoning.”
MICH 13, OSU 10 — Michigan upset Ohio State 13-10; Buckeyes -21 lost outright, busts by 24 points (ESPN box score).
“Their updated season win total is now 10.5. This is a bet where you can wager over or under 10.5 wins. I'd go under.”
The Pittsburgh Steelers finished the 2024 regular season 10-7, under the 10.5 season win total. (10-7 regular season record)
“Let me go back to Joe Fortenbaugh. Joe with his best bets of the week. Eagles, Rams, what are you looking at in that game, Joe? First half in this game, the total is 23 and a half. We're going to bet the under.”
Halftime: PHI 13, LAR 7 (Final: PHI 37, LAR 20) — Eagles led Rams 13-7 at halftime (combined 20 points), under the first-half total of 23.5, in Philadelphia's eventual 37-20 win (ESPN box score).
“Cincinnati is a favorite over Pittsburgh minus one and a half I make that bet on Cincinnati”
PIT 44, CIN 38 — Pittsburgh Steelers beat Cincinnati Bengals 44-38; Bengals -1.5 busts.
“we take San Francisco plus the three here I think it a good buy low spot on the Niners”
GB 38, SF 10 — Green Bay Packers beat San Francisco 49ers 38-10; 49ers +3 busts.
“We'll take Kansas plus the three. It's a great”
KU 37, COLO 21 — Kansas beat Colorado 37-21 outright; Kansas +3 covers.
“We'll lay the two touchdowns with Notre Dame. Bigger, stronger, faster.”
ND 49, ARMY 14 — Notre Dame beat Army 49-14 at Yankee Stadium, a 35-point margin; Notre Dame -14 covers.
“I'm going to play under 52 and a half points.”
OSU 38, IU 15 — Ohio State beat Indiana 38-15, a combined 53 points; Under 52.5 busts.
“Everyone will focus on Steph Curry's points prop. That's what's popular. The edge is to be found elsewhere. Let's go rebounds over four and a half, a relatively cheap price”
GS 112, NO 108 — Steph Curry had 7 rebounds in the Warriors' 112-108 NBA Cup win over the Pelicans, over the 4.5 line. (Stephen Curry: 7 rebounds)
“I like the Chiefs. I would take the points. Don't tell the misses. I married in the Bills Mafia, so this could be very problematic for me. Now, what you're going to hear about from everyone regarding the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes as an underdog, 12-1-1 against the spread in his career. Fantastic mark. I believe he's won 11 of those outright. You can see it right there. This comes down to pricing. You and I have talked about this before. I want you to go back to last year's Super Bowl. Chiefs are the underdog to the 49ers by two. What's the spread here? Chiefs is a dog by two. Do we compare that Buffalo team to that Niners team? Because this Buffalo team, as you were just talking about, Dalton Kincaid's banged up. Amari Cooper's banged up. No key on Coleman. People riding high on Buffalo right now. Five straight wins. Those opponents, 16 and 31. Not one of them has a winning record. I think it's a sell high on Buffalo. I would play the Chiefs plus the two.”
BUF 30, KC 21 — Bills beat Chiefs 30-21; Chiefs (+2) lost outright and failed to cover (ESPN box score).
“Over 10.5 wins on the season. They currently sit 7-4.”
The Washington Commanders finished the 2024 regular season 12-5, clearing the over 10.5 season win total. (12-5 final regular season record)
“What is your best bet, Chiefs Bill Sunday? Isolate the second half here. Chiefs plus one and a half.”
BUF 30, KC 21 — Bills beat Chiefs 30-21; Chiefs second-half spread of +1.5 also busted since Chiefs lost the game outright by 9 (ESPN box score).
“What your best bet Bulldogs Anything short of 10 which is a key number Right now we see 9”
UGA 31, TENN 17 — Georgia beat Tennessee 31-17, a 14-point margin, covering as favorites laying under the 9-point key number (ESPN final score).
“What is your best bet? Over five and a half rounds.”
Jake Paul defeated Mike Tyson by unanimous decision after the fight went the full scheduled 8 rounds, clearing the over-5.5-rounds line (Wikipedia fight record; scores 80-72, 79-73, 79-73). (Went the full 8 rounds (scores 80-72, 79-73, 79-73))
“Let's play Jones to win it in the third round. It pays out 6-1.”
Jon Jones defeated Stipe Miocic by TKO (spinning back kick and follow-up punches) at 4:29 of Round 3 at UFC 309, matching the 3rd-round-finish selection (ESPN). (TKO, Round 3, 4:29)
“All right, you mentioned the Bears. Give me a long-term play right now on the Chicago Bears. Their current win total in Vegas is 7.5. This is a bet where you bet over 7.5 wins if you think they win 8 or more, or you go under if you think they win 7 or fewer. I would go under 7.5 wins.”
The Chicago Bears finished the 2024 season 5-12, staying under the 7.5 projected win total. (5-12 final record)
“What are you playing here in Bama LSU primetime on ABC Saturday night? I like LSU, but I got to get the three, okay?”
ALA 42, LSU 13 — Alabama beat LSU 42-13 on Nov. 9, 2024; LSU lost by 29 points, well outside the +3 line (ESPN).
“His rushing prop is 44.5 yards. I think that number is wrong. His average rushing total this year is 47 yards per game. That average is factored heavily into this prop. What's not factored heavily enough is the opponent. Last year against LSU, he rushed for 155 yards and four touchdowns. Now, LSU changed up their defense. They brought in a new coordinator, but they still struggle to defend opposing quarterbacks who can run. Two weeks ago against A&M, Marcel Reed ran for over 60 yards. Now, maybe LSU cleans up that problem, and if we do, then we end up winning the LSU bet. But I can see Jalen Milrow getting to 50 yards in this game, so I'd go over on that prop.”
ALA 42, LSU 13 — Jalen Milroe rushed for 185 yards on four touchdown runs in Alabama's 42-13 win over LSU, clearing the 44.5-yard line (ESPN box score). (Jalen Milroe: 185 rushing yards)
“Wink wink game of the week from your final boss, North Texas plus four over army.”
ARMY 14, UNT 3 — Army beat North Texas 14-3, an 11-point margin that busted North Texas's +4 spread (ESPN).
“What's your best bet on Dak Prescott? Under 24.5 completions. He's averaging 23.8 on the season.”
Atlanta 27, Dallas 21 — Dak Prescott completed 18 of 24 passes in Dallas's 27-21 loss to Atlanta, staying under the 24.5 completions line (ESPN box score). (Dak Prescott: 18/24, 133 yds, 1 TD)
“what's your best bet on Kirk Cousins? Under one and a half rushing attempts.”
Atlanta 27, Dallas 21 — Kirk Cousins had 4 rushing attempts for Atlanta against Dallas, over the 1.5 line (ESPN box score). (Kirk Cousins: 4 car, -11 rush yds)
“All right, I see a path to Dallas winning this game, And on top of that if they are winning or if they have the ball late Cousins isn going to be on the field kneeling the ball out So let go under one and a half rushing attempts for Kirk Cousins All right you said you see a path for Dallas winning What is your best bet on the point spread I do I take them plus the three and a half I”
Atlanta 27, Dallas 21 — Atlanta beat Dallas 27-21; the Cowboys' 6-point loss busts the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“LSU and Texas A&M, what is your favorite bet in that game? I agree with Feinbaum. I play LSU. We saw an onslaught of Tigers money on Thursday that drove this price from LSU plus 3.5 down to LSU plus 1. Why? Three key reasons. Number one, quarterback play. Garrett Nussmeyer against Texas A&M's cover three should be able to move the ball down the field. Number two, LSU's defense has been steadily improving throughout the course of the year. gave up only 26 to Ole Miss with an overtime frame a few weeks ago. And number three, LSU's rushing attack. They finally got Caden Durham going. That's been big for them to give some balance to Nussmeyer. So we like the LSU money line.”
Texas A&M 38, LSU 23 — Texas A&M beat LSU 38-23; LSU moneyline busts (ESPN).
“Missouri-Bama, what do you like there? Under 51.5 total points.”
Alabama 34, Missouri 0 — Alabama shut out Missouri 34-0, combined 34 points, under 51.5 covers (ESPN).
“Texas Vandy, best bet. Give me Vanderbilt plus the points, 18.5.”
Texas 27, Vanderbilt 24 — Texas beat Vanderbilt 27-24; Vanderbilt's 3-point margin covers the +18.5 line (ESPN).
“I like Cincinnati Greeny, but it's got to be two and a half, not three.”
Philadelphia 37, Cincinnati 17 — Philadelphia beat Cincinnati 37-17; the Bengals' 20-point loss busts the +2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“It would be the Cowboys here at plus four and a half.”
San Francisco 30, Dallas 24 — San Francisco beat Dallas 30-24; the Cowboys' 6-point loss busts the +4.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Let's play LSU. LSU money flooded the market yesterday. They went from a three-and-a-half-point underdog to a one-point underdog.”
Texas A&M 38, LSU 23 — Texas A&M beat LSU 38-23; LSU's 15-point loss busts the +1 spread (ESPN).
“Let's take a shot on the MVP market. Let's go with Teoscar Hernandez at 25-1.”
Freddie Freeman (Dodgers) was named 2024 World Series MVP, not Teoscar Hernandez, after the Dodgers beat the Yankees 4 games to 1 (ESPN). (Freddie Freeman: 4 HR, 12 RBI in 5-game World Series)
“Best bet is to go over 56.5 points here, Greeny. Texas defense is overvalued. Number one in the country in scoring DS. They haven't played anybody yet.”
UGA 30, TEX 15 — Georgia beat Texas 30-15, a combined 45 points, under the 56.5 total.
“Let's talk about Quinn Ewers, the quarterback of Texas. A lot of people love Arch Manning there. What do you have on him in this game? Passing yards over 258 and a half. If we see this as a high-scoring game, our props should correlate with that, and that's what this does.”
UGA 30, TEX 15 — Ewers passed for 211 yards on 25-of-43 in Texas's 30-15 loss to Georgia, under the 258.5 passing-yards line. (Quinn Ewers: 25/43, 211 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT)
“How about Carson Beck? What do you have on him? 20.5 completions is his prop. I would bet over that. Texas plays quarters defense, which means you can dink and dunk on them and make your way down the field.”
UGA 30, TEX 15 — Beck completed 23 of 41 passes for 175 yards in Georgia's 30-15 win over Texas, over the 20.5-completions line. (Carson Beck: 23/41, 175 pass yds, 3 INT)
“All right, let's go through your best bets on that game. Let's start with Jalen Milrow. What do you like on him? His longest completion prop is 40 and a half yards. I would bet the over. Tennessee's defense has been getting gashed the last few weeks.”
TENN 24, ALA 17 — Milroe's longest completion was a 28-yard pass to Germie Bernard in Alabama's 24-17 loss at Tennessee, under the 40.5-yard longest-completion line. (Jalen Milroe: 25/45, 239 pass yds, 1 TD, 2 INT; longest completion 28 yds)
“Their team totals 26 and a half. That means how many points will they score? It has nothing to do with Bama. I'd bet under 26.5 points for Tennessee.”
TENN 24, ALA 17 — Tennessee scored 24 points in its 24-17 win over Alabama, under the 26.5 team-total line.
“Ultimately, we will go to college. We will play LSU plus three and a half against Ole Miss. Awful spot for Ole Miss.”
LSU 29, MISS 26 — LSU beat Ole Miss 29-26 in overtime, winning outright and covering the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“We're gonna go local. We're gonna go UConn in college football. We're gonna lay a big number at 17 against Temple.”
UCONN 29, TEMPLE 20 — UConn beat Temple 29-20, a 9-point margin that falls short of the -17 spread; busts (ESPN box score).
“I'll give you a little bit of future play here if you want something Olympics related. Okay. France to medal. France to you're getting it anyway, Cole. You're getting it anyway. France to medals, like, plus one fifteen.”
France won the silver medal in men's basketball at the 2024 Paris Olympics, losing the gold medal game to the USA 98-87 (Wikipedia); the to-medal futures bet wins.
“Northwestern plus six and a half over Utah. It's all about motivation. Utah usually plays for conference championships. I don't think they wanna be in that game.”
NU 14, UTAH 7 — Northwestern beat Utah 14-7 in the Las Vegas Bowl, a 7-point win that covers Northwestern's +6.5 (ESPN).
“Coastal Carolina plus 10 over San Jose State, Hawaii bowl. San Jose State, another team, I think, lacks the motivation.”
CCU 24, SJSU 14 — Coastal Carolina beat San Jose State 24-14 in the Hawaii Bowl; winning outright as a +10 underdog covers comfortably (ESPN).
“game number one. Georgia Southern minus three and a half over Ohio. Game opened Ohio minus two, nothing but Georgia Southern money.”
OHIO 41, GASO 21 — Ohio beat Georgia Southern 41-21 in the Myrtle Beach Bowl; the Eagles lost by 20, well outside -3.5, so the pick busts (ESPN).
“New Mexico State minus three and a half over Fresno. Two teams headed in opposite directions.”
FRES 37, NMSU 10 — Fresno State beat New Mexico State 37-10 in the New Mexico Bowl; the Aggies lost by 27, well outside -3.5, so the pick busts (ESPN).
“Jacksonville State minus two and a half over the Ragin' Cajuns. Jacksonville State just made the jump to FBS this year.”
JVST 34, UL 31 — Jacksonville State beat Louisiana 34-31 in overtime in the New Orleans Bowl, a 3-point win that covers Jacksonville State's -2.5 (ESPN).
“We're gonna play under 43 points in the bears lions game. Under 43 points bears lions.”
CHI 28, DET 13 — Bears beat Lions 28-13; combined 41 points is under 43, so Under 43 cashes (ESPN).
“Wink wink game of the week, Texas team total over 34 and a half points.”
49-21 — Texas beat Oklahoma State 49-21 in the Big 12 Championship Game; Texas's own team total of 49 clears the 34.5 line easily (ESPN box score).