Stuckey

• USA to win closed +290 · CLV 0¢ won
• Sergino Dest 1+ shot on target pending
• Under 3.5 total goals closed +2 · CLV +1.5 lost

“so what is it are we going under US to win under 3.5 Desch shot okay what does that pay can you pull that up yeah I'm looking at it under three and a half 270 US Moneyline Sergio Dest one plus shot under three and a half love it that'll be our DraftKings parlay for Friday night”

Parlay busts: USA to win — won; Sergino Dest 1+ shot on target +0.5 — manual; Under 3.5 total goals +3.5 — lost.

“but I don't think they quite look the Finnish article in terms of balance. I would love for Turkey to go far off court to go to an italian manager in vincenzo montella but i think it's gonna be ecuador ecuador i visited ecuador a couple years ago love the people there met a couple that are diehard fans so i love that that's what uh i'm rolling with the tries plus 150 to make the round of 16 round of 16 for ecuador you can actually get that at plus 250 over on draft kings a little price discovery for you i'm gonna go with 50 i wasn't i was like ecuador round of 16 or no i'm sorry i'm on stage of elimination my bad yeah you're right yeah i was trying to get you a better number but no it does not exist”

Ecuador advanced out of the group stage (3rd in Group E) but was eliminated by Mexico 2-0 in the Round of 32, never reaching the Round of 16. (Mexico 2, Ecuador 0 (Round of 32))

“i'm gonna go with jalen brunson to lead this series in three pointers four to one mentioned the matchup i think he's gonna get a ton up uh so”

OG Anunoby led the series in made threes with 16; Jalen Brunson finished with 14 (2/2/3/3/4), behind both Anunoby and Champagnie (15), not the series leader. (Brunson 14 3PM (series); Anunoby led with 16)

“I'll take the Spurs to win the series in six at five to one. [49:56] Over at DraftKings, those are NBA Finals' best.”

Spurs did not win the 2026 Finals in 6; the Knicks won the series 4-1.

“a recap on our draft Kings plant the flag picks for the Kentucky Derby. Mike likes the Puma at 10 to one. He's the horse racing expert, by the way, you should probably listen to him. Kendra has a right to party at 30 to one. I'm on commandment six to one and Stucky has chief while it'll be the sharp horse at eight to one.”

152nd Kentucky Derby was won by Golden Tempo; Chief Wallabee finished 4th, so the outright-win bet lost.

“is an interesting thought can i piggyback off that i'm gonna go with students at 35 uh assuming the Bills keep that. If I was the Bills I would have taken him at what were they They traded back to 28 I was like take Stutes Yeah That what they are The last couple of drafts they are building a wall on that defense up front But they need something on the back end. And I said the first name that I mentioned on our podcast, when we talked about the five guys that we think are undervalued or are going to be just slam dunk pros, Stooks was number one for me. He's so versatile. Even Worry vibes. He's played outside. He can play inside. He can play safety. He can play slot. He can play big nickel. He can defend the run. You can do so many things with him. Be a perfect fit for Buffalo. If they draft Stooks, I'm all in on Buffalo this year. I think 20-1 at draft games you can get.”

Treydan Stukes drafted at pick 35. Stukes (S, Arizona) was drafted No. 38 by the Raiders; pick No. 35 was EDGE T.J. Parker to the Bills.

“See, let's go Siwoo Kim outright 49 to 1, baby. So if it hits, we can clip this. I will be betting it myself.”

2026 Masters was won by Rory McIlroy (-12). Si-woo Kim finished 47th (+4), so the outright lost.

“let's go Arizona plus one and a half. I make them a very, very tiny favorite.”

ARIZ 73, MICH 91 — Arizona Wildcats margin -18 vs line +1.5; busts.

“If I'm boosting something, I'm going to go with Purdue. I think that they're peaking at the right time.”

Purdue to win the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Purdue lost the Elite Eight to Arizona 79-64; Michigan won the title. Bet lost.

“I do have the heat minus seven tonight.”

MIA 111, UTAH 115 — Miami Heat margin -4 vs line -7; busts.

“my bet, I'm putting all 1,000, 0-0 first quarter tie. [34:14] And what are the odds? [34:16] I think it's plus 750.”

Seattle's Jason Myers hit a 33-yard FG at 11:58 of Q1, so the first quarter was not a 0-0 tie.

“First one is going to be Seattle team total under 25.5 points.”

NE 13, SEA 29 — Combined 42; under 25.5 busts.

“The other will go with, let's go Hunter Henry over 39.5 receiving yards.”

NE 13, SEA 29 — Hunter Henry: 31 receiving_yards vs over 39.5; busts. (Hunter Henry: 31 receiving_yards)

“so like where and i don't think the ride receivers are going to be able to get separation so where are all the targets going they got to go to henry a lot of them like it's going to be henry in the backs so why not receptions then on i like receptions too but i think that there's a chance he gets i like the over longest uh reception of 17 and a half too”

Hunter Henry's longest reception was 16 yards in Super Bowl LX, under the 17.5 line.

“I'm going with the Seattle Seahawks team total under 25.5 points, widely available there.”

NE 13, SEA 29 — Combined 42; under 25.5 busts.

“i'm going with hunter henry over 39 and a half receiving yards I that's my official pick”

NE 13, SEA 29 — Hunter Henry: 31 receiving_yards vs over 39.5; busts. (Hunter Henry: 31 receiving_yards)

“of the super bowl sunday six pack i'm going with hunter henry over 39 and a half receiving yards I that's my official pick I also bet over 16 and a half longest reception I think 17 and a half is the number that's pretty much out there now still like that”

Hunter Henry's longest reception was 16 yards (3 catches, 31 yards total), under 16.5.

“of the super bowl sunday six pack i'm going with hunter henry over 39 and a half receiving yards I that's my official pick I also bet over 16 and a half longest reception I think 17 and a half is the number that's pretty much out there now still like that and over three and a half catches spread it out”

NE 13, SEA 29 — Hunter Henry: 3 receptions vs over 3.5; busts. (Hunter Henry: 3 receptions)

“I also bet him long shot long to lead the lead the game in receiving yards 11 12 to 1”

Henry caught 3 passes for 31 yards in Super Bowl LX (Feb 8, 2026); Mack Hollins led all receivers with 78 yards. (Henry 31 rec yds vs Hollins 78 rec yds)

“I'm going with the Seattle Seahawks over four and a half players to record a rush attempt. You can find this at plus 115 plus 120.”

Only 4 Seahawks recorded a rush attempt (Walker, Holani, Darnold, Shaheed), under 4.5.

“I also like this came out. I bet this logged it on the action app. It was over seven and a half. we were recording the favorites i was talking about over seven and a half was plus 130 and over four and a half of the cealcs was plus 125 which made no sense because if the cealcs got five there was no way they wasn't going to go over seven and a half it got corrected quick they were just banking on like a trevion zero i guess again yeah they uh they got corrected quick it's like minus 150 now i still like it over seven and a half total so For the Seahawks, that's my favorite look at plus money over four and a half.”

Only 7 total players recorded a rush attempt (4 SEA + 3 NE), under 7.5.

“you can get the the seahawks over four and a half players rush attempt at like plus 135 i like that”

Only 4 Seahawks recorded a rush attempt (Walker, Holani, Darnold, Shaheed), under the 4.5 line.

“Siakam points and rebounds versus Trayvon Henderson rushing and receiving. Siakam's price minus 130. So I think what's interesting on this is Chris Raybon gave out this week on Action Network, you can catch it in the app, 50 plus yards for Henderson at plus 750. Long shot on him for one of the props. So you can kind of take a position that's almost it's not pure here there's a lot there's some variance in there but i almost kind of like taking taking siakam as the seat as the the siaks win that battle of the of the rushing game and then henderson breaks it according to chris's prop so i think there's actually a little bit of value on looking at that one and deciding at least which side of that coin you're on yeah when i was looking at that one you said coin sorry sorry start no more no more coins this this one feels like free money with the way that Seattle is able to gobble up an opponent's run game and Travion Henderson has not involved, have been involved in the receiving game. I do think that the Patriots could possibly get creative here as Kendra was mentioning because if they don use Henderson here I think their ability to create explosive plays is going to be pretty much non But we just haven't seen it recently. Siakam, I mean, you kind of know what you're going to get from him. I feel like this is priced correctly, but Siakam to me feels like the side. So you're saying that you think Siakam is the bet and yet and then moonshotting Travion. Am I reading that correctly? Yeah.”

Cross-sport battle settled Feb 8, 2026: Pascal Siakam had 18 pts + 4 reb = 22 (Pacers at Raptors) vs TreVeyon Henderson's 19 rush + 26 rec = 45 yds in Super Bowl LX. Henderson won the matchup, so the Siakam side lost.

“the only thing that i've placed are a bunch of hunter henry props have him over catches over receiving yards over longest receiving yard our over longest catch uh so i think 16 and a half and 17 and a half”

No numeric line was captured for the Hunter Henry receptions over on air (only the longest-reception props were numbered at 16.5/17.5); using the closing receptions line (3.5), Henry finished with just 3 catches in the Super Bowl. (3 receptions vs closing line 3.5)

“the only thing that i've placed are a bunch of hunter henry props have him over catches over receiving yards over longest receiving yard our over longest catch uh so i think 16 and a half and 17 and a half”

No numeric line was captured for the Hunter Henry receiving-yards over on air; using the closing receiving-yards line (39.5), Henry finished with just 31 yards on 3 catches. (31 receiving yards vs closing line 39.5)

“the only thing that i've placed are a bunch of hunter henry props have him over catches over receiving yards over longest receiving yard our over longest catch uh so i think 16 and a half and 17 and a half”

Hunter Henry's longest reception in Super Bowl LX was 16 yards (3 catches, 31 yds), under the 16.5 line.

“yeah at five i bet the patriots so um i that like it”

NE 13, SEA 29 — New England Patriots margin -16 vs line +5; busts.

“I just, at a three, even an expensive three, I'd have to play the Rams.”

SEA 31, LAR 27 — Los Angeles Rams margin -4 vs line +3; busts.

“going with the los angeles rams plus two and a half i have not bet this yet i will”

SEA 31, LAR 27 — Los Angeles Rams margin -4 vs line +2.5; busts.

“down near the goal line so let's go with adams getting in because you have a long shot that would be it wouldn't be great to combine with my long shot that i also played separately with Nate Atkins, he went on, he bet 17 plays last week, 17 passing plays, 15 routes. And I think he has 20 catches in his career and four or five touchdowns over the past two years. He had a touchdown against the Jets. I think that Peyton has to get creative here. Backup quarterbacks like to rely on, you know, their tight ends and H-backs. I think there's, you're going to have some heavier personnel. I can see like, and mentioned the bad red zone Patriots defense. That's where Atkins is going to have to score from. You're like, I can see you're going to get like a Stidham roll out to the right. Atkins slips out to the left or vice versa and is wide open. And that's the Patriots run D is legit. Now that it's fully healthy, I don't think the Broncos could have a ton of success running in the red zone. You can attack these linebackers through the air. So I think Nate Atkins has a shot here. So, yeah, I played some 35-1, 30-1. I think right now at Jackings, it's 25-1. So I took a shot there.”

Nate Adkins did not score a touchdown in the Broncos' 10-7 AFC Championship loss to the Patriots.

“going to bet this game I took the second the Bo Nix news came out I bet the Patriots a plus 425 to win the Super Bowl and I'll just take my chances with whoever they end up against and we've seen that number beat up now it's it's been sliced in half so um that might just be the way that i look at this is let's i'll just”

The Patriots lost Super Bowl LX 29-13 to the Seahawks.

“I took the second the Bo Nix news came out. [17:45] I bet the Patriots a plus 425 to win the Super Bowl. [17:48] And I'll just take my chances with whoever they end up against.”

New England reached Super Bowl LX but lost 29-13 to Seattle, so the Patriots-to-win-it-all future did not cash.

“We're going to go Rams over. Well, the first one is Bills. I'm just checking the updated prices. Yeah, we can still do 45.5. Bills, Broncos, under 45.5. Talked about the advantages for both defenses. I think that's going to be just a grinding, low-possession, bleeding-clock type of game. both defenses i think have major schematic advantages the two high for the bills against bo nicks the man coverage against uh josh allen and those receivers uh defenses getting healthier so we'll go under there then i'm going to go rams over 26 and a half this total has come down because of the weather i don't think the wind is going to be completely devastating i can't see a world where the Rams don't get the 27 without flukes. I mean, there could be turnovers and things like that. But if you remove the top five defenses the Rams played on their schedule, so Seattle, Philly, and Houston, and by the way, they should have put up 30 plus against Philly. They did put up 38 in one of the games against Seattle. Well, let's just remove those games. I mean, the Bears are like a bottom eight or nine defense. They're 30th in EPA without turnovers. They're 28th in DVOA, 26th in success rate. I mean, you could argue there's a bottom five defense that's still left in the NFL playoffs. But the Rams' points versus non-top five defenses, 34, 33, 27, 23, 35, 34, 42, 34, 28, 45, 41, 24, 37, 17. They averaging close to 33 points per game in 14 games, 27 plus and 11 of those. and the bears defense is 24th and points per game allowed despite leading the league in takeaways and turnover margin which there some looming regression there i expect both coaches to be aggressive rams offensive line trending up No Edwards The Rams should be able to run all over the Bears all over them I mean, without Edwards, they're giving up. They're already giving up five yards per carry, which is 29th in the league. Without Edwards, it's 5.7, which would be the worst in the league among all teams. And we talk about Stafford in the cold. First of all, it's a tiny sample size. Second of all, let's go back to the most recent data point, which is in the plow, in the snow against the team that went on to win the Super Bowl. And he was great in Philly last year. And the other factor here is the Rams defense is cratering. Over the first 12 weeks, they were first in EPA per play. But they got to face Cooper Rush and the Ravens. They faced C.J. Stroud when he had the offensive line injuries right before the game in the first game of the year. And they had to switch around their whole offensive line. Cam Warden, a second start, Spencer Rattler, the Bucs, Baker got hurt and was Teddy Bridgewater, I think, for the entire game. So the first half of the year, they were benefiting from a lot of offensive line quarterback situations. Over the past seven games, they're 20th in EPA per play. They're giving up a ton of explosives. The Bears offense can hit those explosives. I expect the Bears to move the ball. I expect the Bears to put up points. That will force the Rams. I don't think the Rams are going to go up 23-10, and then that's it. And then the Bears – and we see this Bears team. This Bears team can score 20-plus points in the fourth quarter. McVay knows that, and there's going to be game pressure on the Rams to keep scoring. So I like the Rams over 26-and-a-half points. So Rams over 26-and-a-half, and the under in Bears-Bills. Excuse me, in Bills-Broncos. I just bet the under literally on this show. So I think that that is my option.”

DEN 33, BUF 30 — Combined 63; under 45.5 busts.

“So I like the Rams over 26-and-a-half points.”

CHI 17, LAR 20 — Rams scored 20 (final: CHI 17, LAR 20 in OT); Rams team total over 26.5 busts.

“Excuse me, in Bills-Broncos. I just bet the under literally on this show. So I think that that is my option. I can definitely get there on both of these, but I'm about to lean into one of my picks is Rams bears over 48 and a half. So to diversify my portfolio here, I am going to take the under in bills, Broncos as well. That'll be my vote. That one was a lot easier. Look at that. Full agreement. It happens when you bring some nice picks at the table. Let's see if Brad would bring it. Once again, I hate Kravitz's options. I didn't even look at them yet. I can't wait for these. Like, I literally, I swear. You ate last week. Don't get me wrong. You yucked my yum But once again I feel like you making me choose between Satan and the devil for entertainment purposes Well I mean I could just copy and paste everything that Stucky just said about the Rams. I'm just looking at, I just don't get how you guys aren't worried about the weather. I am, but the totals come down. So like I was, I was looking at the under, I mentioned this on the show earlier this week. I was looking at the under 51 and a half, but it's moved three points through key numbers. So at 48 and a half, I could only look at the over. So that and that's the exact thought process here is that we've seen this this opened at 51 and a half. I think we're at a buy point now in the other direction. And the Rams defense, as Stucky mentioned, has been shaky. They made Bryce Young look like an all pro last week. Hey, Carolina was perfect in the red zone. The last seven games, teams have scored 27 or more five times against the Rams. The bears dropped 31 last week, and those were less than ideal weather conditions. Their defense can't get stops. Chicago's nearly dead last in every defensive category other than takeaways there. And it's because their DBs are so overly aggressive. That's not going to work against Adams and Puka Nakua linebacker injuries. Kyron Williams, Blake Corum. I agree. Those guys are going to go off and both teams. I think this is another factor here that makes me absolutely love the over at this number. is that both of these coaches, McVay and Ben Johnson, are two of the most aggressive coaches in the NFL on fourth down among the teams that made it to the playoffs. So this is even including teams that made it into the wildcard round that have been eliminated. Only the Bills attempted more fourth downs than the Rams and the Bears. I love, love the over at 48 and a half. And then the other one is the Bills. Now they're point and a half underdogs. My plant the flag was them on the money line on Tuesday. Rinse, recycle, repeat. I'm not going anywhere on this number. The Broncos 3-5 against the spread in their last eight games. Evan has astutely pointed out on the primer what one seeds have been doing off of the buy, 43% since 2003, 3-7 against the spread since 2020. The Broncos are 25th in success rate on offense. That is not going to fly in the playoffs. So as good as their defense is, I think this game is going to be close. Who do you want your money on in a close game in the fourth quarter Josh Allen or Bo Nix A healthy team At that point just give me God himself Josh Allen So Bills plus one and a half, Bears-Rams over 48 and a half. Those are my two nominees. Stucky? Well, we know that Kendra's not going to back the Bills. I'm not either, and I like the over, so I think this is an easy choice. So we go Rams bears over 48 and a half Broncos bills under 45 and a half and the bears plus four and a half alt plus five 50 on draft Kings.”

CHI 17, LAR 20 — Combined 37; over 48.5 busts.

“going with the los angeles rams team total over 26 and a half”

CHI 17, LAR 20 — Rams scored 20 points (own team total); under 26.5, busts.

“By the way, another prop that I really like that I consider for the six-pack is Blake Corm over longest rush, 11.5, 12.5. I think his median is 15. He has one carry of at least 12 yards in 10 of his 17 games, if you remove the opener when he only had one carry.”

Blake Corum's longest rush was 7 yards (6 carries, 19 yards), under the 11.5 line, in the Rams' 20-17 OT win over the Bears.

“I'm going with the Buffalo Bills under 23 and a half.”

Bills scored 30 points in their overtime loss to Denver, over the 23.5 team-total line. (Bills 30 points)

• Seahawks -1.5
• Texans +8.5

“the first half for what it worth um but i gonna go lines more efficient this time of the year which makes teasers specifically teasers across three and seven more valuable So I think one of the better plays on the board teasing the Seahawks from seven and a half down to one and a half, and then the Texans from two and a half up to eight and a half. That one, there's still some uncertainty with Nego Collins and Christian”

Seahawks leg actually won (SEA 41, SF 6 — covered -1.5 by 35), but Texans leg lost (16-28, margin -12, missed +8.5) — one losing leg sinks the teaser. (Seahawks 41-6 (win); Texans 16-28 (loss))

“Let's go Steelers Moneyline.”

PIT 6, HOU 30 — Pittsburgh Steelers lost; moneyline busts.

“I'm going to go with the Packers' money line.”

Bears beat Packers 31-27 in the NFC Wild Card game (Jan 10, 2026); Packers moneyline lost. (Bears 31, Packers 27)

“And let's go the Chargers plus three and a half.”

Patriots beat Chargers 16-3 in the AFC Wild Card game (Jan 11, 2026); Chargers lost by 13, failing to cover +3.5. (Patriots 16, Chargers 3)

“jags first half was going to be one of my picks but we won't double up here yeah that was 18 minutes for the first pick um so so i like the jags in the first half and the reason for this the cohen script the jags have been an elite in the first half of games and if you just look at trevor lawrence's splits first half 13th epa plus completion percentage over expectation 14th adjusted EPA, 13th success rate. In the second half, 32nd, 21st, 21st. Allen in the first half, 25th EPA plus completion over expectation. 21st adjusted EPA per play, 24th in success rate. In the second half, first, first, second. Fourth quarter, first, first, second. A lot of that, what that speaks to is the Cohen script. Lawrence really benefits from that. And then Allen in this Bills offense, they try to run it way too much in the first half of games. And that's going to go right into the strength of the Jags defense. And then once Allen gets unleashed against this, I could see them coming back and having success against this Jags secondary. But if I had to play the full game too, I would play the Jags. I just prefer the first half money line.”

Bills led Jaguars 10-7 at halftime of the Wild Card game; Jacksonville first-half ML loses. (1H: BUF 10, JAX 7)

“the crown is yours all right stuck uh we're going second all right for my second pick and the fourth overall the wildcard weekend six pack i'm going with the green bay packers minus one and a half at the chicago bears i bet this when they were an underdog it's moved since we came up with our script but i would still play the packers here”

CHI 31, GB 27 — Green Bay Packers margin -4 vs line -1.5; busts.

“I going with the Rams under 46”

CAR 31, LAR 34 — Combined 65; under 46 busts.

“money line dog is obvious this week it's the Steelers”

PIT 6, HOU 30 — Pittsburgh Steelers lost; moneyline busts.

• Trevor Lawrence anytime TD
• Dalton Kincaid anytime TD

“But this week I'm going to go with Trevor Lawrence, plus 180, to score a touchdown. He's running a lot more in the second half of the year. He has seven rushing touchdowns in his past ten games. And you can get him there via sneak. You can get him there via scramble. And the Bills, they haven't played many mobile quarterbacks this year, but when they have, I think they faced six, who I would consider. Running quarterbacks. They've, I mean, Drake may have two rushing touchdowns against them, but they allowed eight yards per rush attempt, and in those six games, four rushing touchdowns. So I think that there's going to be some opportunities for Lawrence and what could be, I mean, this is a high total, a very high total for a playoff game in a game where they're, the game that we could have the most or should theoretically have the most points scored. um so yeah i'm gonna take lawrence to find the end zone could get there on like a boot or a sneak at the goal line or just scrambling uh against the slower second level bills defense if no one's open initially yeah no i like it um i'm actually gonna go even though i do like the jags uh as you mentioned a lot of points expected in this game so i'm gonna go with uh a buffalo bill and that is dalton kinkade at plus you're trying to find a way to talk about this game again. Yes, absolutely. So, but so with Kinkade, though, I think they're going to need him in this game. And I think they know that. And I think that why you saw him get some action even when Dawson Knox had incentives to hit which I think they got him the touchdown He played on one play like two snaps But yeah we saw Kincaid get like a quarter And that usually when you see that in the playoffs with a tight end, that means they think they're going to need him in that upcoming postseason. We saw that a couple of years ago. I believe it was Dallas Goddard was coming off an injury and played in like week 18. They got him like seven or eight catches in like a quarter. And then he was big during their postseason run. And then we saw it last year with the Rams with Higby when, you know, you would think, all right, guys been hurt all year, keep him out. They played him in the last week of the season. And then, I mean, he just came out scorching in the playoffs. I think he got hurt and like still had like five or six catches in that first game and didn't get a touchdown until the second one. But like, I think KK is going to be a major factor here because I don't think the Bills trust the receivers. And you look at Jacksonville and only 11 touchdowns about all year to running back to only eight on the ground. That's big because James Cook just steals so many touchdowns. I say steals like James Cook scores so many touchdowns that it's like he's stealing from the rest of the offense because they're so explosive that other guys, you know, it's not you don't get like a chance to drive down the field and kind of spread it out. to different guys as much as some other teams. So in this spot, the Jags, they don't give up a ton of explosives. They don't give up as much in the run game as almost anyone in the league. So it could be harder for Josh. It could be harder for Cook to score on the ground. And the Bills could be playing from behind. So I think that sets up well for Kincaid, who's a little underpriced just because he's been banged up in and out of games. They're very conservative. They hold guys out when they're a little banged up. So he's kind of a little under the radar here, but expecting him to be a major factor. So give me Kikade at plus 260. Get him matched up the seam against Dewey Wingard in three touchdowns. Yeah. Eight touchdowns allowed by the Jags to tight ends. Eight rushing touchdowns to running backs all year. Eight receiving to tight ends. So there's a bit of an imbalance there where you can – and that makes sense because the Jags play a lot of zone. So you parlay those together. That's the same game parlay on DraftKings. you get nine to one odds, Trevor Lawrence, Dalton, Kincaid. And this works, like it still works in any game script because you know tight ends good positive or negative game script a guy like Kincaid will be out there on third downs And then Lawrence as you mentioned he can do it in a number of ways So that our anytime touchdown par away For the wild card weekend going to the expected high game Jags, Bills, Trevor Lawrence, Dalton Kincaid, 9-1, anytime touchdown scorers.”

SGP fails: Trevor Lawrence did not score a touchdown himself (3 passing TDs only, no rush/rec TD) even though Dalton Kincaid caught a TD; both legs were required. (Kincaid: 1 rec TD; Lawrence: 0 rush/rec TD)

“It's not going to be my plan at the flag game, but I played the Chargers plus three and a half.”

Patriots beat Chargers 16-3 in the AFC Wild Card game (Jan 11, 2026); Chargers lost by 13, failing to cover +3.5. (Patriots 16, Chargers 3)

“I'm going to plant my flag on the Jags' first half money line. So I think that this – I don't mind the Jags for the full game, but I'm more confident in them early in this game.”

JAX 24, BUF 27 — Jacksonville Jaguars lost; moneyline busts.

“I'm going with the bangles. Probably my favorite side of the week. even if seven and I played some seven would play seven and a half”

CIN 18, CLE 20 — Cincinnati Bengals margin -2 vs line -7; busts.

“I'm going with the Cincinnati Bengals minus seven and a half at home against the Cleveland Browns.”

CIN 18, CLE 20 — Cincinnati Bengals margin -2 vs line -7.5; busts.

“atlanta falcons minus three at home against the new orleans saints this is how the panthers get in”

ATL 19, NO 17 — Atlanta Falcons margin +2 vs line -3; busts.

“I have to take the Bucs minus 2.5 here.”

Buccaneers won 16-14, a 2-point margin that falls short of the -2.5 spread needed. (Buccaneers 16, Panthers 14 (margin 2, needed 2.5+))

“I mean, last week he threw it for 50 yards on 24 attempts. I have to take the Bucs minus 2.5 here. Plus, it's the NFC South. You know it's going to come down to Saints, Falcons on Sunday. NFL script writers will ensure that happens. But my favorite bet is the Bengals against the Browns. I think the Bengals blow the doors off the Browns. Browns are a simple team, people. They're the least profitable road team over the past three years, the most profitable home team. Their defense doesn't play the same on the road. It's like Garrett, once he gets his sack, okay, good night. But this Bengals offense is rolling. Their offensive line is playing better. Mims, Fairchild are playing better. You got all your healthy pieces. burrow's gonna play the offense is rolling right now so they're gonna put up their points at home free my boy free joe burrow from hell can the browns match no i don't think fannin's gonna play fannin their whole offense luckily he played enough he played a quarter last week and caught a 50 touchdown pass because after that the Browns did nothing Njoku hurt Fannin hurt How are they going to keep up here? Additionally, I think the Bengals are a little undervalued right now because their defense is playing much, much better. Over the past six weeks, number one in EPA per play, you might say, ah, who have they played, blah, blah, blah. They played the Ravens twice, the Pats, the Bills, the Dolphins, and someone else is probably bad. But that's not like a stretch of just the worst offenses in the NFL. So you might ask why. Why is it? Well, there's a number of reasons. Over the first 10 weeks, they were historically bad. I'm not saying they're a good defense right now, but they're just like maybe the 25th best defense, which is all you need with the – like you just can't be historically bad when you have this Bengals offense and you're going up against a horrendous Browns deep. But why is the Bengals' deed trending up? Why I think it's real. Well, they have two rookie linebackers who were the worst in the NFL over the first 10 weeks in Carter and Knight. They're playing legitimately better. So not great. But they were unplayable over the first 10 weeks. Now they're playing better. They also moved Dax Hill out to the outside. DJ Turner on the other side has been one of the best corners in the NFL. Hill has played amazingly locked down since he's moved to the outside because they had Jeff. what is his name uh their new slot corner who's been on the practice on the practice squad he's been with the organization for like five years he's come in played the nickel and played it pretty well it's enabled hill went out after the first 10 weeks went outside um jalen davis so now their corners are playing really well a lot rookie linebackers are playing better they changed some of their fronts slayton's playing better with these new formations against the run They're getting something from Miles Murphy finally. And then you just have Al Golden, who came in as a new coordinator with a bunch of new pieces that started to figure some things out schematically. So I do think that the Bengals' defense is legitimately improved, which they've shown over the past six weeks. And you're playing one of the worst offenses in the NFL, a defense that doesn't play the same on the road. Could see this being a little bit of an emotional letdown for the Browns, right? They had that huge win over the Steelers. I don't think they can keep up here. I think the Bengals' role. So give me Cincy in the jungle. Tend to agree with that one. So we got two from Stucky. He on the Bucs minus two and a half and the Bengals minus seven against the Cleveland Browns And we got Kendra with a shoulder shrug emoji on the Colts plus 10 and a half I second the Bengals”

CIN 18, CLE 20 — Cincinnati Bengals margin -2 vs line -7; busts.

“I'm going with the Las Vegas Raiders minus one and a half at home against the New York Giants.”

LV 10, NYG 34 — Las Vegas Raiders margin -24 vs line -1.5; busts.

“For my third pick and the fifth overall the Week 17 Sunday six I going with the Buffalo Bills minus one and a half There some minus ones out there It doesn matter for the contest We'll go minus one and a half. Not much to this, to be honest.”

BUF 12, PHI 13 — Buffalo Bills margin -1 vs line -1.5; busts.

“let's get to our anytime touchdown parlay presented by jackings all right you've been hot on the money line dogs i been hot on the uh touchdowns i got to get got to get them at the same time Almost had it Like you said with Metcalf got one called back Unbelievable Unbelievable man Where are you going this week? I'm going to go Tyler Warren.”

Tyler Warren caught 5 passes for 43 yards with no touchdown in the Colts' 23-17 loss to Jacksonville.

“But I'm going to go with Colby Parkinson anytime touchdown.”

Colby Parkinson did not score (6 rec, 53 yds) in the Rams' 27-24 Week 17 Monday loss at Atlanta; the Rams' TDs went to Terrance Ferguson and Puka Nacua.

“I'm nominating the Raiders money line. I took them early in the week getting plus money.”

LV 10, NYG 34 — Las Vegas Raiders lost; moneyline busts.

“Uh, so I'm going to go Taylor longest rush over 17 and a half yards. I think he breaks a couple here.”

Jonathan Taylor's longest rush was only 7 yards (16 carries, 46 yds) in the Colts' 48-27 Week 16 loss to San Francisco, well under 17.5.

“I going with the Washington Commanders plus six and a half at home against the Philadelphia Eagles”

Eagles beat the Commanders 29-18 (won by 11) — Commanders did not cover +6.5. (Final: Eagles 29, Commanders 18)

“But let's go Packers-Bears over 46.5.”

Bears beat the Packers 22-16 in OT (38 combined points) — under 46.5. (Final: Bears 22, Packers 16 (OT), total 38)

“zone coverage you could get dk on a crosser or something against a linebacker uh that could be problematic too so a lot of ways for dk to score but yeah rogers a lot of touchdowns against man coverage uh this year and the lions will will man up that's one thing we know about them i'm gonna go with Mike Evans, plus 185. Great game for him against the Falcons, but didn't get in the end zone. Panthers, ton of single high. Mike Evans destroys single high. It makes sense. You know, big bodied, contested catch receiver. You're always going to try it versus single high. He's been great against single high zone as well in his career. Top Panthers receiver versus single high. Excuse me, top Bucs receiver versus single high this year and look great last week so plus 185 they're gonna get him in the end zone sooner or later uh you parlay these two big bodied wide outs metcalf evans plus 175 and plus 185 you get plus 684 so just under 7 That was our anytime touchdown parlay presented by DraftKings.”

DK Metcalf did not score in the Steelers' 29-24 Week 16 win at Detroit (Pittsburgh TDs: Warren x2, Gainwell).

“Yeah, I'll be on the Packers. Funny story about the action that we got. One of our college basketball contributors, Tanner, I was in the shower. And during football, I had to shower my phone in case the line moves. So I just have my phone out and showering. And I get a notification. It says Green Bay minus 115. Tanner logs it. And I'm like, oh my God, because I'm waiting for a cheap money line. It could be a lower scoring game. Packers have some kicker issues. I do think it's a good matchup for them schematically. They play a lot of zone. Knicks really struggles against zone. Broncos play out a single high. I think Love can hit some explosive passes. And yeah, the Broncos have been extremely lucky. I think the Packers are sending, you know me, I'm team Packers from since the beginning of the year and will be until they're eliminated. um so i ran i started pulling up the board to look for the but it was green bay and i didn't even see the basketball it was the uh phoenix it was green bay basketball minus 115 money line i've been waiting for like a minus 115 minus 120 money line all week and then i saw that and i got excited but uh yeah i like the packers here though”

DEN 34, GB 26 — Green Bay Packers lost; moneyline busts.

“yeah it's five and a half of draft kings that's fine uh anything under six i like the chiefs against the chargers”

KC 13, LAC 16 — Kansas City Chiefs margin -3 vs line -5.5; busts.

• Cleveland Browns +7.5 closed +7.5 · CLV 0 lost
• Buffalo Bills ML closed -142 · CLV +7¢ won
• Minnesota Vikings +6.5 closed +5.5 · CLV +1 won

“but we can buy the Vikings a six and a half So go Vikings plus six and a half We have Bill money line and Browns plus seven and a half Last week we hit it was plus 575 This is a little lower, plus 515 at DraftKings. I like that. Yep, it is in there. All right, Browns plus seven and a half. Bill's money line, Vikings plus six and a half at plus 514 over on DraftKings.”

Parlay busts: Cleveland Browns +7.5 +7.5 — lost; Buffalo Bills ML — won; Minnesota Vikings +6.5 +6.5 — won.

“I'll take the Bengals at plus 124 here.”

CIN 0, BAL 24 — Cincinnati Bengals lost; moneyline busts.

“I played the Bengals 15 to one to win the division this week,”

The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) won the AFC North; the Bengals finished 6-11, so the division bet lost.

“Chiefs to make the playoffs.”

The Chiefs finished 6-11 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014.

“If it does and they win the division I would rather have much more upside than whatever it is plus 180 The bet I placed yesterday is Bengals 15 at DraftKings to win the division They are not dead Hear me out. So if they beat Baltimore this week, so say Lamar's still not healthy. Now Higgins has a concussion, which doesn't help. But, I mean, the Bengals just beat the Ravens without Higgins. So if the Bengals beat the Ravens, now the Bengals have to win out. Like, I mean, what's their record? Four and nine. So you might say, all right, they're going to finish eight and nine and win the division. Every year or two, we get one of these divisions or an eight and nine. AFC South every single year. AFC South every single season since the dawn of time. Except for this year, that gargantuan division. So if the Bengals beat the Ravens, their remaining games this week, their remaining games are the Dolphins and then the Cardinals and Browns at home. Like, I'm putting them at eight and nine. Does that mean they are? but no but they have a good shot to get date night if they win this week the steelers who i still don't think are any good they have they're they have miami they're a three-point favorite at home against miami this week miami's playing better but even if we give them that win then they're at detroit they're at cleveland i mean rogers going up against that defensive line we know cleveland's going to show up for that game wanting to end their season and then they have the ravens at home. So is there a chance that the Steelers go 1-3? I mean, I wouldn't be shocked if they went 0-4. Now, granted, they could go 3-1. But with that schedule, like, I could see the Ravens playing the Steelers on the last week and spoiling their party. And that's their season. The Steelers have done it with the Ravens before. So let's say the Steelers finish 8-9. Well, the Ravens, now they're six and seven if they lose this whole hypothesis is based on the bangles winning this week so the the ravens would lose to the bangles they would fall to six and eight so in order to get to eight and nine they would need to go two and one over the remaining games they're at their home against the pats at the packers and then at the steelers that is not easy But if there a chance that they could get to 8 say they lose at the Packers they beat the Pats then they need to win at the Steelers They do that and there a big tiebreaker or there tiebreakers with the Bengals and the Ravens beat the Steelers The Bengals are going to win the tiebreaker at 8-9. It feels like that Charlie Day meme where he's got the whiteboard with all the markers, and he's like... Yeah, there's tiebreaker scenarios where the Bengals beat the Steelers. The Bengals have the easiest schedule overall. So I think they're worth a flyer. Just some small catchage, 15-1, because if they win this weekend,”

The Bengals did not win the AFC North; Pittsburgh took the division while Cincinnati finished 6-11.

“and then the other thing in regards to the Chiefs, I think it is worth taking a shot on the Chiefs right now to make the playoffs. So, the Chiefs, I played it yesterday. Now, the price got a little better because the price would have improved if the Chargers lost. And I thought that was a coin flip game. And I wanted to get ahead of it.”

The Chiefs did not make the playoffs, finishing 6-11 and missing the postseason for the first time since 2014.

“I'm going with the New York Jets plus three.”

NYJ 10, MIA 34 — New York Jets margin -24 vs line +3; busts.

“I just think this line is too high. I think the Falcons will be in this game at home. So give me over a touchdown with Atlanta, a gross Falcons dog bet after losing to the jets. This is very, you want to bet the Jags is, I mean the Falcons is dogs. You don't never want to bet them as favorites. Like this is going on for years and for what it's worth, the just like, I love fading teams off of shutout wins. This isn't gospel, but road teams off of a home shutout. Look at this team. They just won 26-0. Road teams off a home shutout over the past 25 years, 17-35-1 against the spread, 32.7%. The Falcons lost the game they should have won last week. Seahawks benefited from facing Rosmer. Darnold kind of trending down a bit. defenses have tape on this offense or they're adjusting a bit better. So yeah, I'll take the seven. I think this line's too high. Our play at the flag games presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours. Kendra is on the Bengals plus six. Stucky on the Falcons plus seven and a half.”

Seahawks blew out the Falcons 37-9 in Week 14 (Dec 7, 2025); Falcons lost by 28, well outside +7.5. (Final: Seahawks 37, Falcons 9)

“it's a seven and a half i think the giants are worth a look”

NE 33, NYG 15 — New York Giants margin -18 vs line +7.5; busts.

“I'm going with the Indianapolis Colts minus four and a half. [16:00] Currently at DraftKings.”

IND 16, HOU 20 — Indianapolis Colts margin -4 vs line -4.5; busts.

“yeah I'll take the hook here I just think this should be three the brown loss with Heisman back that combo I think could make a difference in this game so give me the Steelers plus three and a half”

PIT 7, BUF 26 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -19 vs line +3.5; busts.

“Now it's time for our anytime touchdown parlay presented by DraftKings. All right, Stubb, we've just been missing out on hitting the parlay last couple weeks. Who are you looking at this week? I know. I got to come up with one to hit. We've been not on the same page. I know. One's hitting one week, the other the other week. Since our one we hit in week six. Let's go with Justin Jefferson.”

Justin Jefferson had 2 catches for 4 yards and no TD in the Vikings' 26-0 shutout loss to Seattle.

“But I guess I'll plant my flag on the Indianapolis Colts, my Daniel Jones, minus four and a half, my pumpkin.”

IND 16, HOU 20 — Indianapolis Colts margin -4 vs line -4.5; busts.

“I'm all over the Eagles for what it's worth, if anybody cares. I think it's a great spot for them. I think that the Bears are fake as hell. They've been getting super lucky. I know I talked a lot of shit about the Eagles on Sunday, but I think it's a good bounce-back spot for them. They're the better team. If you're going to sit here and talk about luck, I'm going to go with the better roster. I'm going to go with the coach who's proven himself, and I think that that's all I need to know for this game. Like, you can talk about luck all you want, But I don't think that the Bears are a good team. I think that they're a lucky team. I think both are to a degree, but the Eagles at least have the track record of actually being a Super Bowl winner. And we have not seen that from Chicago. They are the horseshoe. in the ass team of the year. And it's like every week. And it's not going in like where you like put one in at a time. Like both ends are going up your ass at the same time. You know, if we're talking to teachers. The only thing I would push back onto that, I don't hate the Eagles this week because I just hate needing that team to win by margin. I mean. I know. That's the part that I hate too because I don't know. They go at half every week without scoring. I literally said that verbatim on Sunday's show because I said that we've talked all season long about how it went from a quarter where they do nothing to a quarter and a half where they do nothing to a half where they do nothing on both sides of the ball i agree that that's the part that scares me needing a touchdown from them but i think they have to beat up on the bears after the embarrassment that they had this weekend i think the eagles could be a good teaser piece take them down to one and don't ask them to cover seven eagles and packers decent teaser”

PHI 15, CHI 24 — Philadelphia Eagles margin -9 vs line -7; busts.

“I did put Lions minus three in the app earlier this week.”

DET 24, GB 31 — Detroit Lions margin -7 vs line -3; busts.

“So, yeah, let's go with Vegas minus three and a half. That's my vote.”

LV 10, CLE 24 — Las Vegas Raiders margin -14 vs line -3.5; busts.

“I'm going with the Las Vegas Raiders minus three and a half against the Cleveland Browns.”

LV 10, CLE 24 — Las Vegas Raiders margin -14 vs line -3.5; busts.

“The Pittsburgh Steelers plus two and a half at the Chicago Bears.”

CHI 31, PIT 28 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -3 vs line +2.5; busts.

“So I going to go with the Seahawks Titans under 40 and a half”

TEN 24, SEA 30 — Combined 54; under 40.5 busts.

“anytime touchdown parlay presented by DraftKings all right stuck like you said almost should have got that should have got that parlay to hit last week with uh with Dorch coming through and it was just getting Steelers running back was what we should have gone with but uh it happens uh where are you going this week uh let's go this is your suggestion um let's go with devon vele for the saints love it i love the saints this week falcons gas defense indoors chuck throw more downfield”

Devaughn Vele did not score (3 rec, 37 yds) in the Saints' 24-10 Week 12 loss to Atlanta.

“I think the Saints are the side. Cousins has lost six in a row against the spread as a starter. So I think you guys are spot on on your read. I wish that this spread did not flip. The Saints were plus one and a half at open. they're now minus one and a half this would be i got some two and a half so on dk right now it's minus one and a half but yeah that's uh i guess if you want the saints you got to get in on it now”

NO 10, ATL 24 — New Orleans Saints margin -14 vs line +2.5; busts.

“I'm going with the Minnesota Vikings minus three at home against the Chicago Bears.”

MIN 17, CHI 19 — Minnesota Vikings margin -2 vs line -3; busts.

“I going to go with the Vikings Minus three at home”

MIN 17, CHI 19 — Minnesota Vikings margin -2 vs line -3; busts.

“I played the Commanders, but I know you guys aren't going to vote for that. I think that line is ridiculous at eight. the lions are broken right now and have no offensive line um and can't run the ball”

WSH 22, DET 44 — Washington Commanders margin -22 vs line +8; busts.

“so i'll nominate the cardinals now i'm waiting for a seven but i'd still bet six and a half”

SEA 44, ARI 22 — Arizona Cardinals margin -22 vs line +6.5; busts.

“I like Raven's first half money line Kendra do you like it it's Kendra's pick I think that we should just go all Raven's here just to put a stucky in the corner Raven's first half is going to be one of my picks”

Halftime: MIN 10, BAL 9 — Baltimore trailed Minnesota 10-9 at halftime; Ravens first-half moneyline loses.

“I'll say I'm going to plant my flag on the Packers, minus two and a half at home against the Eagles.”

GB 7, PHI 10 — Green Bay Packers margin -3 vs line -2.5; busts.

“Houston favored by a point and a half. Luck rankings say bet the Texans. Stucky, action or distraction on that? Action. I know. I think Kendra's on the Broncos. I am on the Broncos. Which I completely disagree with. I like the Texans here. Look, the one thing I'm worried about is the pressure that Denver can generate. Usually when you look at this Houston offense, it's, okay, there's a shot of time. If he does, then he can pick defenses apart. If he doesn't, it can look ugly because the pocket just collapses immediately. That is a concern against Denver. But this Broncos defense is just not the same without Patrick Sertand. He allows them to do so much. He gives them so much flexibility. Takes the number one receiver out. Takes one side of the field away. And it allows you to be so much more aggressive. The drop off between him and Abrams drain is massive. So without him, I think Houston has clearly the better defense. They're at home. And they have the better quarterback, in my opinion. I'll take Stroud over Bo Nix. and are you not worried about their injury report though you're like the injury report guy nico collins questionable christian kirk questionable schultz questionable obviously tank dell's not available even braxton barrios is hurt like that's kind of cancel out the comment stuff though. I think it just cancels out the Sertain stuff. I think Collins and Kirk are going to play. They practiced yesterday. That's a really good sign. They're going to play, but that just doesn't change the fact that everybody's hurt and slow. Maybe. I liked what I saw from the Houston offense last week. Their young receivers looked good. Bo Nix is going to see a ton of zone quarters coverage here. This Houston pass defense is historically good. you're going to see a ton of zone. Bo Nix has been abysmal against zone this season. And one of the areas where Houston could move the ball is Denver's been dead. They're dead last in the league at defending running backs out of the backfield in the passing game. Woody Marks is starting to become a bigger focal point of the offense and getting more involved in that department. So that could be an area where Houston moves books. It's not going to take much in this game. Total is 40 for a reason, even though it's indoors. These are two elite defenses. Points are going to be hard to come by. But yeah, I'm rolling with the Texans here. I mean, if you look at this Broncos team, there's a reason why they're high up in our luck rankings. They beat the Jets by two. They beat the Giants by one. And they were down. I mean, that was a ridiculous comeback. They should have lost that game and they beat the road cowboys you even go back to some of their other wins they beat jake browning uh they beat the titans at home by one possession and then they had that crazy comeback against the eagles like this is a team that yes they have six wins but they easily could only have three or four so uh yeah i'm rolling with the texans at home i think”

HOU 15, DEN 18 — Houston Texans margin -3 vs line -1.5; busts.

“i'm going with the washington commanders plus three and a half at home against the seahawks”

WSH 14, SEA 38 — Washington Commanders margin -24 vs line +3.5; busts.

“i'm going with the houston texans minus one and a half [39:11] at home against the denver broncos”

HOU 15, DEN 18 — Houston Texans margin -3 vs line -1.5; busts.

“i've already bet the detroit lions at minus eight and a half”

DET 24, MIN 27 — Detroit Lions margin -3 vs line -8.5; busts.

“Saints plus four against the Tampa Bay Bucs. Texans minus one against the San Francisco 49ers. I'll go into sell mode for these, and then I'll let you pick between the two. The injuries are catching up to Tampa. Short week. Now they go on the road in division. Baker has struggled in these spots four and five in uh in those positions ATS as a favorite against the NFC South I eliminate everything involved with Cleveland when I do anything Baker stat so thank you for putting that in the primer, Evan. This is a luck-ranking game on top of it. Rattler threw three picks last week. He hadn't thrown an interception since week three. If he can just play it safe, simple style of quarterback play, I think they can move on Tampa. Chris Alave has been playing some really good football. I can't quit the Saints. I've bet this team a lot this year, two and five ATS. So that doesn't exactly paid off. But I'm going to go back to the well here and fade the Bucs. As far as the other play, everything points to Houston here. San Francisco is a sell high. Houston's a buy low. They are a disgusting football team. One offensive touchdown last week in primetime. They have been awful in these primetime games. Just think back to that game against the Tampa Bay Bucs. the sharp side was the Texans just like it was against the Seahawks they have not been coming through but when you look at what the power rating is going to tell you is that the the Texans should be favored I think most people that look at this game are going to say well how in the world are the San Francisco 49ers not favored they're the better team Houston's defense is allowing 14.7 points per game Shanahan's team so last nine times they've faced the defense allowing 17 points per game or less one and eight against the spread i mean the texans might be bad but all signs point to them in this particular game yeah i like both i like both of these good job by kendra you maybe i'm rubbing off on you guys because i used to not like all your plays in the beginning of the year now this week i like all of your plays so good work here i'm gonna be bet both of these i like the texans i mean look the 49ers they had an all-out effort on against atlanta but i mean”

NO 3, TB 23 — New Orleans Saints margin -20 vs line +4; busts.

“So we're going to go with the Commanders plus 12 and a half.”

KC 28, WSH 7 — Washington Commanders margin -21 vs line +12.5; busts.

“I'm going with the New Orleans Saints plus four-and-a-half at home”

NO 3, TB 23 — New Orleans Saints margin -20 vs line +4.5; busts.

“I'm going with the Dallas Cowboys plus three and a half at the Denver Broncos.”

DEN 44, DAL 24 — Dallas Cowboys margin -20 vs line +3.5; busts.

“I'm going with the Pittsburgh Steelers plus three”

PIT 25, GB 35 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -10 vs line +3; busts.

“I am on OKC, by the way, minus seven and a half.”

OKC 125, HOU 124 — Oklahoma City Thunder margin +1 vs line -7.5; busts.

“So I like the Chargers, played them on a cheap money line. I think they get it done at home.”

IND 38, LAC 24 — Indianapolis Colts 38, Los Angeles Chargers 24; Chargers moneyline loses.

“And then we'll do the Vikings money line. I already made my case earlier this week on plant the flag.”

MIN 22, PHI 28 — Minnesota Vikings lost; moneyline busts.

“I am going with the New York Jets plus one and a half at home”

NYJ 6, CAR 13 — New York Jets margin -7 vs line +1.5; busts.

“in the red zone here, rookie quarterback who can't really see much of the defense, doesn't have great receiver options. I think Fannin's going to get some looks. And he also could get a carry. Like sometimes they use him and run him. So there's multiple options here for Fannin to get in the end zone. So we're going to go with Harold Fannin. to calculate this for now we'll call it plus 300 but like i said whenever it comes out on draft kings i will tweet it and put it in the action network app”

Harold Fannin had 4 catches for 36 yards and no TD in Cleveland's 31-6 win over Miami.

“Falcons plus two and a half over on DraftKings against the 49ers.”

SF 20, ATL 10 — Atlanta Falcons margin -10 vs line +2.5; busts.

“yesterday I placed a Super Bowl bet on the Ravens”

Baltimore went 8-9 and missed the playoffs; Seattle won Super Bowl LX, so the Ravens futures lost.

“I did already bet the Vikings at plus two and a half.”

MIN 22, PHI 28 — Minnesota Vikings margin -6 vs line +2.5; busts.

“with my first pick of the Week 6 Sunday six-pack, [9:54] I am going with the San Francisco 49ers plus three at the Tampa Bay.”

TB 30, SF 19 — San Francisco 49ers margin -11 vs line +3; busts.

“I'm gonna go this week with one that's probably [55:25] a little contrarian but Carolina Dallas under 49 and a half”

CAR 30, DAL 27 — Combined 57; under 49.5 busts.

“start off the parlay with Chargers money line and just trust Harbaugh and Herbert to get it done at home.”

LAC 10, WSH 27 — Los Angeles Chargers lost; moneyline busts.

“So if I end up, I'm still sitting on this 49ers minus three and a half with my plant the flag bet from Tuesday's episode.”

SF 21, JAX 26 — San Francisco 49ers margin -5 vs line -3.5; busts.

“I'm going with the Minnesota Vikings minus two and a half in, what is it, Dublin against the Pittsburgh Steelers.”

PIT 24, MIN 21 — Minnesota Vikings margin -3 vs line -2.5; busts.

“I'm going with the Las Vegas Raiders minus one at home against the Chicago Chicago Bears.”

LV 24, CHI 25 — Las Vegas Raiders margin -1 vs line -1; busts.

“I'm going to go with, I guess, [49:20] Jackatrarian over [49:21] Texans Titans over [49:24] 38.”

HOU 26, TEN 0 — Combined 26; over 38 busts.

“But I'll plant my flag on the Bengals plus 7.5. There's still some 7.5s out there, I think minus 115.”

Broncos routed Bengals 28-3 on Monday Night Football; Bengals lost by 25, nowhere near covering +7.5. (Broncos 28, Bengals 3)

“And, yeah, the Titans, by the way, are just – I don't even want to talk about that game. They're 3-17 against the spread over the past 20. I bet them. That's a 7-1⁄2. I'm not even going to suggest it. I think it's 7-1⁄2. It's them or nothing. Just because the Texans probably don't deserve to be laying 7-1⁄2. That's exactly it. It's a bet against the Texans. Texans and unfortunately the Titans are the side on the other side of that you might be right I hate to say it but it's a divisional game the Texans have been terrible why I know laying is seven seven and I get I know and I got it at minus 110 that number is gone now which does make me feel good about the wager at least at this juncture in the week I sure I feel differently when we into the second quarter on Sunday But I feel like it was a bet that had to be made.”

Texans shut out Titans 26-0; Titans lost by 26, doesn't cover +7.5. (Texans 26, Titans 0)

“I'm with you. I'm on the Giants as well. I got the six.”

KC 22, NYG 9 — New York Giants margin -13 vs line +6; does not cover.

“but let's go Seahawks, Saints under 41 and a half.”

SEA 44, NO 13 — Combined 57; under 41.5 busts.

“But I'll put my flag on the Rams plus three and a half.”

PHI 33, LAR 26 — Los Angeles Rams margin -7 vs line +3.5; busts.

“Stucky, slightly jealous of you. You picked up the seven a few days ago. Wish I had gotten in on them a little bit earlier, but this team runs the ball really well. Buffalo clearly struggled in that area on Sunday night. Yes, they won the game. They came back heroic fashion, yada, yada. They gave up 238 yards on the ground to the Baltimore Ravens. Their secondaries beat up as well. So I think Justin Fields can have some success in this game. Home dogs of seven or more. And this doesn't exactly qualify because I'm taking a six and a half. But just to give you an idea of the range, 18, one and two against the spread over the last three years. in the beginning portions of the season, first half of the year. So I like the Jets plus six and a half. I'll stop there. Are you guys sold on the Jets plus the number, or should I continue? I'm in on the Jets, personally.”

BUF 30, NYJ 10 — New York Jets lost by 20 (10-30) vs line +7; does not cover.

“All right, well, my favorite bet, before I get Kendra's thoughts, because you're probably not going to like this because no one is probably going to like this, is the Texans. Who wants to bet the Texans as a favorite? Apparently me. But that's my favorite bet. That's on Monday night. Anything under three. Last week was a mess offensively. But you have to understand that before the game, they ruled their guard out with an abdomen injury. Hopefully he's back this week. And he was really good in the preseason, Ed Ingram. They removed him. That changed three positions around. And throughout the game, they had five or six different combinations. They had all these guys playing tackle, then they had two injuries. There was no way it was going to be functional. So no matter what this week, I think Ingram will be back. That will allow Howard to go to tackle. And I think Patterson at safety for Andrews is even better. But they'll get a week to practice with it. They went into the game, game day, and then had to switch up their entire offense to three positions and then had two injuries. It was a disaster. So it won't look that bad. The Bucs' defense is bad. They got lucky last week. their offensive lines a mess. They got their center playing tackle, their guard playing center because Wirfs is out. They're missing McMillan, Godwin still. Baker should have thrown like three or four picks last week. They got very fortunate. Texans get it done. That defense at home, I'm trusting them and Stroud to bounce back with a more stable offensive line. So Texans minus two and a half, Falcons plus three and a half, my favorite two bets.”

HOU 19, TB 20 — Houston Texans margin -1 vs line -2.5; busts.

“that that should be enough to cover the the six and a half uh here because now the bills have to win by by margin in a home division game uh road division game uh that they have struggled with in the past so um yeah give me the new york jets i mean you have trend on top of trend on top of trend uh for these you know week two home teams facing a road team that won in week one uh 54 64% over the past two decades. Week two dog, awful loss against a favorite that was a dog in the last game. 64% against the spread. Divisional home dogs against a road favorite above that one in week one and covered. 61% against the spread. I mean, it goes on and on. Week one to three divisional home dogs over the past two decades are 63%. There's just trend after trend for these divisional dogs early in the year. So give me the New York Jets.”

NYJ 10, BUF 30 — New York Jets margin -20 vs line +6.5; busts.

“not the same and the chiefs they'll find a way to get it done here uh against uh an eagles team that i like you said questions on offense questions on defense so give me kc plus 105 i also hard lean under here uh talk about two teams that if they up want to just run out the clock like my home second half unders are like the most”

KC 17, PHI 20 — Kansas City Chiefs lost; moneyline busts.

“But I'm piggybacking off of your thesis here, and I'm going to go with my guy. I loved him in college, Tett McMillan, against the Cardinals.”

Tetairoa McMillan had 100 receiving yards but no touchdown in the Panthers' 22-27 loss at Arizona.

“Not going to go with the crowd I going with the Texans”

HOU 19, TB 20 — Houston Texans lost; moneyline busts.

“But yeah I took the seven with them this week against the Bills The Bills have defensive issues I think the Jets can hang around in that game”

BUF 30, NYJ 10 — New York Jets margin -20 vs line +7; busts.

“I'm going with the Patriots Raiders over 43 and a half.”

NE 13, LV 20 — Combined 33; over 43.5 busts.

“Mike Tomlin, week one under. At New York, 38 and a half is the number.”

NYJ 32, PIT 34 — Combined 66; under 38.5 busts.

“I'll go Ravens. They're barely an underdog now. I think they're like minus 109 technically.”

BUF 41, BAL 40 — Baltimore Ravens lost; moneyline busts.

“may even do it twice in a game like this so give me uh trevor lawrence at plus 450 uh for an anytime right that would be a rushing score i like it all right let's see what the parlay odds andrews plus”

Trevor Lawrence threw a 6-yard touchdown pass to Hunter Long in the Jaguars' 26-10 Week 1 win over Carolina, but had no rushing or receiving touchdown himself, so his anytime-TD prop did not hit.

“Penn State before. Penn State plus money to make the Big Ten title game. I like. They might not be”

Penn State to make the 2025 Big Ten Championship Game. Penn State finished 7-6 (3-6 Big Ten); Indiana and Ohio State played in the title game. Bet lost.

“Michigan offense running the triple in space what Army does is going to mess up a lot of defenses in the Mac it's going to work on Tuesday and Wednesday nights you're going to hear a lot of chirping from us. Stock what's your last future? I did take Central Michigan I think the first time”

Central Michigan (+2000) to win the 2025 MAC. Western Michigan won the MAC; Central Michigan did not reach the game. Bet lost.

“I'll throw a couple college football playoff bets out there I played some USC to make the playoff plus 480 and I played some Texas A&M plus 240. I think Texas A&M is a really high floor.”

USC (+480) to make the 2025 College Football Playoff. USC finished 9-3 in the regular season, ranked No. 16 in the final CFP rankings, and was left out of the 12-team field. Bet lost.

“Neutral field taking over the touchdown, taking over seven with Vatek.”

SC 24, VT 11 — Virginia Tech Hokies margin -13 vs line +7; busts.

“let's go with uh Charlotte catching seven”

CLT 11, APP 34 — Charlotte 49ers margin -23 vs line +7; busts.

“north of two dollars you got a [13:04] falcons to win the division is the play”

Panthers won the 2025 NFC South; Falcons did not. (Carolina won NFC South; Atlanta missed the playoffs.)

“No, I think I'm going to be the insane person that has a flyer on the Giants 25 to 1 to win the NFC East.”

Giants did not win the 2025 NFC East and missed the playoffs. (NY Giants finished out of the playoffs.)

“I mentioned this on our podcast three months ago that I buying the Cardinals across the board I played them to make the playoffs win the division and over”

Cardinals missed the 2025 NFL playoffs. (Arizona not among the 14 playoff teams.)

“I mentioned this on our podcast three months ago that I buying the Cardinals across the board I played them to make the playoffs win the division and over”

Seahawks won the 2025 NFC West; Cardinals did not. (Seattle won NFC West at 14-3, No. 1 seed.)

“But all right, now Cardinals, they seem to be like this perfectly mediocre team in the market. Now it's a little bit more juice to over eight and a half in terms of the win total. Talk to me about why you like Arizona. Yeah I mentioned this on our podcast three months ago that I buying the Cardinals across the board I played them to make the playoffs win the division and over”

Arizona Cardinals finished the 2025 season 3-14, well under the 8.5 win total. (Cardinals 3-14 (3 wins) vs 8.5)

“also some downside of this team i'm going for the long shot packers to win the super bowl”

Seahawks won Super Bowl LX (29-13 over Patriots); Packers did not. (Green Bay did not win the Super Bowl.)

“You can get over 5.5 minus 145. [31:06] I project them closer to like seven wins. [31:09] Yeah. [31:10] So I bet they're over.”

Titans finished the 2025 regular season 3-14, well under the 5.5 win total. (TEN 3-14)

“With Bo Nix and Andy The Falcons quit. The Falcons took their whole secondary out. The Chiefs benched all their starters. Oh, early in the year, they beat the Jets 10-9. Yeah, that was a hard game to watch. I remember that one Yeah so and I think like I just there a lot to be there still a lot of work to do for Knicks in my opinion But they did it. They brought in Pat Bryant. You love him. They brought in Harvey. You love him. Not easy. I don't think they're bad. I projected to win nine games. So, I went under nine.”

Broncos finished the 2025 regular season 14-3 (tied for the NFL's best record), well over the 9 win total. (DEN 14-3)

“I think the bet in the division that stands out to me the most is the Chargers under nine and a half, because I think that's,”

Chargers finished the 2025 regular season 11-6, well over the 9.5 win total. (LAC 11-6)

“Yeah, I have a Super Bowl ticket on them.”

Seahawks won Super Bowl LX over the Patriots 29-13; Ravens did not win. (Seahawks won SB LX)

“I like the upside Cardinals. So division, little division playoffs.”

Seahawks won the 2025 NFC West (No. 1 seed); Cardinals did not win the division.

“i might bet on to make the playoffs i think makes sense too”

Cardinals missed the 2025 playoffs (blown out by Rams in Week 18).

“Packers, real upside. longer shot upside super bowl”

Seahawks won Super Bowl LX 29-13 over the Patriots; Packers future busts.

“so i do want packers i'm gonna we're gonna packers division yep airs division”

Bears won the 2025 NFC North (11-6); Packers (9-7-1) finished second as the No. 7 seed.

“And then we got the Titans there at five and a half juice to the over eight to one to win a division. I mean, it's not like over baby.”

Tennessee finished the 2025 regular season 3-14. 3 < 5.5, over lost. (Titans 2025 record: 3-14)

“I have a Texas Tech future. Bet them they're in the region. On our podcast, we have them to win the final four. I think they're a top five team and fully healthy.”

Texas Tech to win their region / reach the 2025 Final Four. Texas Tech lost the Elite Eight (regional final) to Florida 84-79. Bet lost.

“I'm going with Dallas Goddard over 50 reception yards, 50-plus, minus 122 at FanDuel.”

PHI 40, KC 22 — Dallas Goedert: 27 receiving_yards vs over 50; busts. (Dallas Goedert: 27 receiving_yards)

“I'm going with the Green Bay Packers plus three in the first half [5:24] against the Philadelphia Eagles. [5:26] Minus 115 out there.”

PHI 10, GB 0 (1H) — Packers first-half margin -10 (PHI led 10-0 at half) vs line +3; busts.

“Like the Steelers. Plus 136 against the Bengals.”

Bengals beat the Steelers 19-17, so the Steelers moneyline lost. (Final: Bengals 19, Steelers 17)

“I'm going with the Pittsburgh Steelers plus three at home [16:32] against the Kansas City Chiefs.”

PIT 10, KC 29 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -19 vs line +3; busts.

“I'm going to go with the Dallas Cowboys plus 9.5 at the Philadelphia Eagles.”

PHI 41, DAL 7 — Dallas Cowboys margin -34 vs line +9.5; busts.

“I'm going with that Colts-Giants under 40.5.”

NYG 45, IND 33 — Combined 78; under 40.5 busts.

“one here where are you going with your money line dog uh let's go with the pats feisty pats i i But they're playing better. Drake May used his legs last week a lot more, even though I thought they weren't going to go that route anymore. Still playing hard. Chargers going across the country here, outdoors. I think their defense is trending down. They still can really run the ball consistently The Pats will probably play more man than zone here That is what you need to do against the Chargers I think they got a puncher's chance here. So let's go with Drake May and the Pats at home. And what, you know, this is, again, a game where Chargers need to win. Pats can treat this as a Super Bowl play a little looser. Let's go with New England. yeah they're catching a lot of sharp money too i mean i was on the wrong side of them like of course i picked the one big favorite that doesn't cover last week with the bills but yeah this is that just that kind of year um but i you know i did say drake may is playing a lot better um so if they if they cover they pull the upset it's going to be because of him uh and i do like that they they play man covered i think that's that's that's the way you got to beat the charges because that kind of takes their tight ends out of the game as an option and it really I mean, Herbert is 6 of 23 targeting Quentin Johnston against man coverage, 9 of 20 targeting Josh Palmer. And Palmer is essentially his second best option against man after McConkie. So, yeah, it could get real tight for the Chargers here. Saturday going across the country just could take it for granted a little. They kind of haven't really been in some of the – I mean, they probably should have lost to the Broncos if they don't get that free kick that just turns the entire momentum of the game around. So, yeah, I like that one. I'm going to go with the Pittsburgh Steelers here. This is, I mean, no, this is, I don't think this is going to be popular at all because as Chiefs, all they do is win every week and everyone's going to tell you that stat about Patrick Mahomes if he's, you know, minus three or less. But look at Mike Tomlin as an underdog in his career. I mean, as a money line dog from October on. So take out the first month of the season. He's 43 and 33. straight up as a dog. So he's winning. He's 10 games over 500 outright as an underdog. My kids want to have a good Christmas. Off a loss, 21-14, 60%. Home dog. I think you mentioned this earlier. 19-10 straight up as an underdog for Mike Tomlin, 66%. 2-0 this season. So if the Chiefs do lose the game, I just don't. Listen, they're great. They'll probably just find a way to win another Super Bowl. but they're not a 15 and like they're not a 16 and one team. Like they're getting so lucky. I think Pittsburgh can get it done here So yeah I think you think they going to win the game too I agree Going Steelers plus 135 The parlay on that is let see you got Patriots plus 185 Steelers plus 135 plus 573”

NE 7, LAC 40 — New England Patriots lost; moneyline busts.

“I'm going with the New York Jets plus three and a half at home [15:30] against the Los Angeles Rams.”

NYJ 9, LAR 19 — New York Jets margin -10 vs line +3.5; busts.

“should be uh should help him out here so give me the 49ers on the road plus one and a half at miami yeah i like this this would have been one of mine i'll be on this”

MIA 29, SF 17 — San Francisco 49ers margin -12 vs line +1.5; busts.

“i'm going with the chicago bears plus six and a half at home against the detroit lions”

CHI 17, DET 34 — Chicago Bears margin -17 vs line +6.5; busts.

“let's go back to the Eagles under [43:54] Eagles commanders under 45 and a half”

WSH 36, PHI 33 — Combined 69; under 45.5 busts.

“Let's go with the Texans, plus 140 against the Chiefs.”

KC 27, HOU 19 — Houston Texans lost; moneyline busts.

“I'm going with the Carolina Panthers [22:55] minus two and a half. It's minus [22:57] two and a half, minus 120 out there.”

CAR 14, DAL 30 — Carolina Panthers margin -16 vs line -2.5; busts.

“All right for my third pick and the fifth overall of the Week 15 Sunday six I going with the Los Angeles Chargers Let me make sure there an expensive 2 out there still Yeah 2 minus 120 out there Buy it. Buy it up to minus 125. I'm going with the Chargers here against the Bucs.”

LAC 17, TB 40 — Los Angeles Chargers margin -23 vs line -2; busts.

“I'm going with the Bengals, Titans under 47.”

TEN 27, CIN 37 — Combined 64; under 47 busts.

“we're gonna go with the commanders from seven and a half down to one and a half”

NO 19, WSH 20 — Washington Commanders margin +1 vs line -1.5; busts.

“So I bet the Colts, I like them on the money line.”

DEN 31, IND 13 — Indianapolis Colts lost; moneyline busts.

“i'm going with the kansas city chiefs [27:24] minus four at home against the los angeles chargers”

KC 19, LAC 17 — Kansas City Chiefs margin +2 vs line -4; busts.

“So give me Seahawks Cardinals under 44 and a half”

ARI 18, SEA 30 — Combined 48; under 44.5 busts.

“I'm going with the Atlanta Falcons plus two-and-a-half at home [25:34] against the Los Angeles Chargers.”

ATL 13, LAC 17 — Atlanta Falcons margin -4 vs line +2.5; busts.

“I going with the Miami Dolphins plus three and a half at the Green Bay Packers”

GB 30, MIA 17 — Miami Dolphins margin -13 vs line +3.5; busts.

“the seahawks jets under 41 and a half this is just a bet on the seahawks defense”

NYJ 21, SEA 26 — Combined 47; under 41.5 busts.

“let's go with jacksonville plus 190 this line's [1:07:24] way too high if lawrence plays”

JAX 20, HOU 23 — Jacksonville Jaguars lost; moneyline busts.

“and the Titans, Texans, what was that, 42? It's a lock under, by the way.”

HOU 27, TEN 32 — Combined 59; under 42 busts.

“Let's go with the Raiders. I think the Broncos are getting a little too rich here, laying five and a half. I mean, you have to remember, when these two teams played earlier this season, the Raiders in Denver were up 10-3 at the goal line. 14-point swing. Yeah, about to go up 17-3 and throw a 100-yard pick six. Sertain had a 100-yard pick six. That really flipped that game around. But, I mean, Bo Nix has been better. I backed him last week. the easiest one I've ever had all year. But you've got to remember, the Falcons can't get pressure, and they were down everyone in their secondary. Now, the reason this didn't make the six-pack, and I'm just taking a shot with the underdog money on my play,”

LV 19, DEN 29 — Las Vegas Raiders lost; moneyline busts.

“I'm going to kick things off for the week 11 Sunday six pack [11:34] with the Cleveland Browns plus one and a half at the New Orleans Saints.”

NO 35, CLE 14 — Cleveland Browns margin -21 vs line +1.5; busts.

“So, yeah, give me Miami Vegas under 44 and a half.”

MIA 34, LV 19 — Combined 53; under 44.5 busts.

• Bengals +7.5 (teased) won
• Browns +7.5 (teased) lost

“um so Bengals Browns plus seven and a half each”

Parlay busts: Bengals +7.5 (teased) +7.5 — won; Browns +7.5 (teased) +7.5 — lost.

“I'm going to go with the bears against the Packers. Now this line is crazy. Way too high, but can you play the bears? I don't, I don't know. I consider them for the six pack. I need, I need to see who's playing on the offensive line. Both of the, I think right. And Jones are going to be back at practice. Yeah. So that's, but yeah, but Denny also has Taven Jenkins and new OC. So yeah, who knows? There's a ton of uncertainty, which is why they're in the money line dog section. I also don't know if they quit. There's so much bad. They like the way that they've looked the past two weeks, all of the locker room drama that I'm reading about behind the scenes and hearing from people that are close to the team. It's not great, but usually in the NFL, like teams don't quit and this is their rival. Like I expect them to at least show up, but it's been a mess. Like they can't. I mean, Caleb Williams is holding on to the ball too long. They can't block. But you want to talk about a buy low spot. And then there's increased variance. You get a new offensive coordinator. Should be a bit healthier. Now, it's not – historically, this is a good spot for the Packers in that the floor has been very good off of extended rest. Favorites off of buy have also been really good. Especially on the road. Yeah especially on the road And believe it or not the Packers off a bye on the road as a favorite Those teams 76 60 over the past 20 years The Packers are 10-0 straight up and against the spread against the Bears in their last 10 meetings. Can you believe that? 10-0? Yeah, I can believe it. I can believe it. I mean, who have the Bears? Look at the Bears. No, we just didn't get one. This is the Bears. This is what they are bearing. The Bears will bear. Yeah, I've been on the variance here. And this line is just too high, like, on the surface. Like, I can't get to this number. The Packers were laying four and a half in Jacksonville, and I bet the Jags. So, I mean, how bad is it with the Bears? I don't know. Maybe I just haven't found the bottom. But with the variance, expecting to show up here against their rival, I'm going to take the Bears.”

CHI 19, GB 20 — Chicago Bears lost; moneyline busts.

“The Green Bay Packers plus three and a half at home against the Detroit Lions.”

GB 14, DET 24 — Green Bay Packers margin -10 vs line +3.5; busts.

• Browns (teased, line unstated) lost
• Bengals -1.5 (teased) won

“rarely happens so yeah and now it's time for our favorite teaser of the week oh yeah six point Teasers. If you don't want me to, don't tease me. Don't tease me. Try to please me. All right, what's your teaser? What's your teaser? Keep it simple here, too. Browns, sorry to talk about this earlier. Browns up over a touchdown. And then I'm going to go Bengals down to minus one and a half.”

Parlay busts: Browns +8 (teased) +8 — lost; Bengals -1.5 (teased) -1.5 — won.

“So this one will be a lot higher because I'm going to go with the Raiders.”

LV 20, KC 27 — Las Vegas Raiders lost; moneyline busts.

• Seahawks ML closed +139 · CLV -9¢ won
• Dolphins ML closed +125 · CLV +17¢ lost

“I don't hate this matchup for Miami and they're, they're over a field goal in the market and they're catching plus one 42 on the money line. So don't really feel confident betting Miami anymore. Cause he just, I mean, it's been, it's been terrible, But this is absolutely a game with the variants and the Anthony Richardson that they could. It's a winnable game for Miami. So plus 142 for them, plus 130 for the Seahawks. Parlay them together, plus 457.”

Parlay busts: Seahawks ML — won; Dolphins ML — lost.

“the Tennessee Titans plus one and a half against the Indianapolis Colts.”

TEN 17, IND 20 — Tennessee Titans margin -3 vs line +1.5; busts.

“I'll take the Jags plus two and a half.”

CHI 35, JAX 16 — Jacksonville Jaguars margin -19 vs line +2.5; busts.

“dallas cowboys i think you owe me a hook so there's a three and a half minus 125 out there you got it uh yeah i would buy i would buy up to minus 125 i remember one i just can't get to this number especially if i'm getting over a field goal even if i have to pay a bit for it willing to do that here the cowboys defense is still a mess the injuries are still a thing along the defensive line is detroit gonna have success running the ball here yes uh but i just i just can't get to this number the detroit defense is still really bad especially in the secondary I don't expect Dallas to have a ton of success running the ball. That's Detroit's defensive strength. But they did change up last week some of their run blocking schemes, which I think were more conducive to what this offensive line and backfield is. So maybe they have a bit more success than expected, just like they did last week against the Steelers. Granted, the Steelers had a number of guys go down along that defensive line, which didn't help and at linebacker but the whole operation looked better but this is all about just dac dropping back against this bad and still bad detroit secondary and what does detroit want to do they want to play man dac carves up man so i think dallas can match them here score for score and it's they also have a special teams advantage here which when you're catching over three at home isn't insignificant, especially in that stadium. You start at the 30-yard line. What do you got to get to, the 50? And then you score? 20-yard drives, you score with Aubrey at home? I mean, that's insane. At some point, he's going to hit a 70-yarder, I think, at home. You get to get to the 48-yard line. You don't have to cross midfield and you can score. So, yeah, I just can't get to this number. I get the Lions are going to have success running the ball but I take the better quarterback here I get Goff had his perfect game but it was against an exhausted Seattle defense that was missing a ton of starters all over Goff still hasn't looked great this year. So give me Dax, a home dog to carve up this defense and keep it close in a, which should be just back and forth affair.”

DAL 9, DET 47 — Dallas Cowboys margin -38 vs line +3.5; busts.

“Jacksonville, Chicago, under 45.”

CHI 35, JAX 16 — Combined 51; under 45 busts.

• Saints ML closed +155.5 · CLV 0¢ lost
• Cowboys ML closed +149.5 · CLV -3¢ lost

“All right. So Saints plus 155, and I'm going to go Dallas plus 146. A higher scoring game, but like we talked about, it's hard to get to the spread here. So I do think there's some value on Dallas. Roll with them on the money line because this could, you know, Detroit could blow them out. Dallas could even blow Detroit out. It's just a high variance game because the total is up to 52. So I'll take Dallas plus 146. Parlay those two together and you get odds of plus 527.”

Parlay busts: Saints ML — lost; Cowboys ML — lost.

“I'm going with the Pittsburgh Steelers minus one and a half, anything under three spine, against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.”

PIT 17, DAL 20 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -3 vs line -1.5; busts.

“Yeah, let's go with the Bucks, Eagles under. Anything over 44 is fine. I think for this contest, I mean, 45 would be ideal, but it wouldn't matter for the contest. But 44.5 is fine.”

TB 33, PHI 16 — Combined 49; under 44.5 busts.

“let's tease the Jets down to minus one and a half.”

NYJ 9, DEN 10 — New York Jets margin -1 vs line -1.5; busts.

“I am going with the Tennessee Titans minus two against the Green Bay Packers”

TEN 14, GB 30 — Tennessee Titans margin -16 vs line -2; busts.

“the obvious one here is the Chargers teasing them up from one and a half to seven and a half”

PIT 20, LAC 10 — Los Angeles Chargers margin -10 vs line +7.5; busts.

“so to get to the end it was going to be titans or ravens for me but the titans are up to minus three in a game with a total of 36.”

TEN 14, GB 30 — Tennessee Titans margin -16 vs line -3; busts.

“I'm going with the Tennessee Titans plus three and a half against the New York [30:18] Jets”

TEN 17, NYJ 24 — Tennessee Titans margin -7 vs line +3.5; busts.

“I'm going with the Carolina Panthers plus six and a half at home [43:39] against the Chargers.”

CAR 3, LAC 26 — Carolina Panthers margin -23 vs line +6.5; busts.

• Texans ML closed -285 · CLV +10¢ won
• Lions ML closed -370 · CLV -5¢ lost

“then we both agree on Texans and Lions we'll call it a Moneyline Parlay but same thing for the teaser segment”

Parlay busts: Texans ML — won; Lions ML — lost.

“yeah agree here underdogs in winless teams in week two for what it's worth 50 25 and three 67 since 2003 plus 351 would be the parlay eyes broncos minus plus 120 excuse me giants plus 105”

DEN 6, PIT 13 — Denver Broncos lost; moneyline busts.

“So, yeah, I'm going safe this week. I'm going with the Ravens, who I trust to win at home. It's Baltimore, gentlemen.”

BAL 23, LV 26 — Baltimore Ravens lost; moneyline busts.

“Carolina Panthers plus four against the New Orleans Saints.”

NO 47, CAR 10 — Carolina Panthers margin -37 vs line +4; busts.

“I'm going to go with the Cleveland Browns Dallas Cowboys under 41.”

CLE 17, DAL 33 — Combined 50; under 41 busts.

“Yeah, go to the Commanders. We talked about it earlier in the six pack segment. So nothing much more to add Where are you going Panthers Same deal here We talked about it already So if you parlay the Commanders plus 140”

TB 37, WSH 20 — Washington Commanders lost; moneyline busts.

“midweek match in returns, but, I like bowling green to win the MAC,”

Bowling Green to win the 2024 MAC. Ohio won the 2024 MAC Championship (38-3 over Miami OH); Bowling Green did not reach the game. Bet lost.

“I would love that because I have Panthers over on their win total. I still like it at 5.5. I think I got it at 4.5, I want to say. Yeah, we said in our preseason preview, That was like our favorite edge I showed. I am over six wins.”

Panthers finished the 2024 regular season 5-12. 5 < 5.5. (5-12)

“seven and a half minus 140 is the win total uh you know again this team just kind of worries me because Canales, who had a very good effect on Dino a couple years ago, very good effect on Baker Mayfield last year, he's now gone. So I don't know if Baker Mayfield at this stage in his career, especially with, you know, none of the offense really got hurt. Can Baker Mayfield play as well as he did last year? Is Mike Evans, can we pencil him in for yet another 1,000-yard season? Is Godwin going to kind of work out playing more? But, you know, so there's going to be some key differences. could be for the better but I don't know what do you think about this offense without Canals like how do you think it is any tangible effect there or just kind of more the same I think Baker Mayfield was pretty lucky last year the Bucks as a whole were very lucky a lot of metrics and yeah Liam Conkins in new OC got one back to I thought I see McMillan might be wide receiver too. The rookie out of Washington. Well, yeah. Other. Yeah. The outside. Yeah. Him and Palmer are kind of neck and neck right now. Yeah. Good race to watch. But yeah, I think Mayfield. And we know who he is. Look, the Bucs are kind of like the Saints. Like they just, they just need to blow it up. And then they gave all this money to Baker. Like there's an aging roster that needs to be blown up. And they caught a flash in the pan last year in a shitty division, beat the Eagles and then Baker gets a hundred million. The offensive line is an issue, but at both guards spots, you're gonna rookie starting at center i like grand barton but um is he ready right away i don't love the defense they're less talented than last year corner is definitely a question pass rush i know they're gonna try to generate it with a lot of blitzes under bowls but you know there's a couple rookies who have flashed like bucky irving tyke smith might end up getting the nickel spot he like fits with bowls wants to do really aggressive like off the edge and but yeah i really don't like you know what happens would you move izzy and outside or what do you do then like yeah you could uh but column was the guy that was like the at least last well yeah he's been the worst i don't like i don't like the calm at all yeah so i mean that's why i asked yeah i don't i don't know that's all gonna work out i don't think he's gonna i just think that that's a possibility and later on this season i don't know how they would actually shuffle everyone it's a good question but i i'm just not in love with this defense couple studs that you have you know vea and david dean is good at one corner spot that you can rely on but as a whole man and offensive line is a question clay calling i'm a little worried about liam not as high on him as others and uh the interior offensive line is really problematic because baker does not deal with pressure well so yeah i think that they got really lucky last year trying to get an eight under eight um but this is one of my favorite unders in the nfc i project seven three but it's team i want to fade and i show value um in the current number so i like the under here in tampa the one thing i don't like is you know if you look at their schedule i mean they're in the nfc south you know it's going to be easy i have is six easiest but they start with washington week one, rookie quarterback. Denver week three, probably rookie quarterback. So they're catching like the rookie quarterbacks early, which is beneficial. But they also play some really good teams on their schedule too I don think they going to beat San Fran Baltimore Kansas City which I just don think are with Philadelphia So, yeah, I think they take a step back here. I like the under. Yeah, it's plus 115 at MGM.”

Buccaneers finished the 2024 regular season 10-7 and won the NFC South, exceeding the under line. 10 > 7.5. (10-7)

“And I think Jable's gotten the anchoring bias. Like he started off really well and everything, but I think Dabo has the potential to unravel as well. So I actually have a first coach fired bet out there on him as well. I think I got him like 10 to one.”

First HC fired in the 2024 season was Robert Saleh (Jets, Oct 8 2024); Daboll was not fired in 2024. (Daboll retained through 2024; fired Nov 2025)

“But for what it's worth, the two MVP bets that I like this year, both in this division, more of a longer shot would be Trevor Lawrence. Could be in a bunch of shootouts. He has the pedigree. I don't know if he puts it all together. He wasn't lucky these last few years. I think he had the most drops over the last year. And last year, he played better than his numbers. So, yeah, I see what you're saying. But he might just be a little above average. He might just not be that generational talent that we thought he was going to be when he was selected. But that's why it's just like a flyer. All right. So, yeah, I got the MVP odds up here. I bet him he's 30 to one.”

Josh Allen won 2024 NFL MVP; Trevor Lawrence did not win. (Allen beat Lamar Jackson for MVP)

“the division odds for cincinnati plus 165 uh they're favored in for me at least 14 of their 17 and you know the teams the spots are really dogs are baltimore and kc so a real good chance i think for this team to rise up and potentially even get the number one seed because remember they had that last place schedule um so i really like that you know they get new england and get to avoid the rest of the afc east they get tennessee and get to avoid you know houston and the rest of the south and they even get carolina uh in the nfc south and games gets the g-men uh washington in Denver Vegas so I like the schedule for Cincinnati I like that they were able to finish in last place but still give you some confidence that they were still nine and eight uh so I think this is what you were alluding to when you said you're targeting another team talk to me about uh Cincy I like the Bengals to win the division it's coming down a little bit still like it”

Ravens won the 2024 AFC North; Bengals finished 9-8 and missed the division. (Ravens 12-5, Bengals 9-8)

“Yeah, my favorite AFC win total as of now is Baltimore under. You know, I project them at, what, 10-3-ish. So I show value on this under, and I have a lot more questions this year than I did last. offensive line in particular there are many questions there the loss of mcdonald is massive just on a weekly basis what he did from a game planning and scheming perspective and then just on we'll talk about this with the chargers and some of the things that i think minter can do uh but they also have some key losses key pieces that they lost on defense clowny was so underrated what he did for that defense last year still have to figure out the corner rotation I also think year two of Munkin is not a positive like I talked about this last year one of the reasons that I like the Ravens and like their win total over was the coordinator hires and I thought Munkin with Lamar right talked about this one of the reasons i bet lamar mvp is like you have that surprise factor of okay what this offense going to look like with lamar jackson league hasn't really seen it well you don't really have that advantage anymore um they do have the biggest net rest advantage like you said but it is still a tough schedule i have them with the sixth hardest schedule in the nfl so yeah i have a lot of questions about this team they're still really good and you gotta just by the way there's gonna be a time when justin tucker also isn't as elite and automatic as he always is from distance uh pains me to say that but this organization is usually good i did like their draft especially for the future but um to me this is more of a nine or ten win team than an 11 or 12 win team and um what's the win total sitting out right now it's 11 and a half but heavily juiced to the under so at minus 160 so more like 11 yeah i think i think there's a minus 140 out there 11 and a half uh if you shop around i like that”

Ravens finished the 2024 regular season 12-5, over the 11.5-win under line. (12-5)

“who am i to say that it not um and you can get a much better price on the browns that defense is still really good But I might consider Bengals Super Bowl but I do like them to win the division at better odds than the Ravens. Yeah, so the Bengals are plus 165 to win the division at. Bet MGM, the Ravens are plus 125.”

Ravens won the 2024 AFC North; Bengals finished 9-8 and missed playoffs. (Cincinnati 9-8)

“This year, I had on our Big Bets on Campus podcast, we put together a futures portfolio, one bet a week over the past two months. We and I bet these four futures. Four of our futures are all in the same region with Houston, and Kentucky winning the national title.”

Kentucky to win the 2024 national title. Kentucky lost in the first round to Oakland; UConn won the 2024 title. Bet lost.

“winning the national title. And then I have final four flyers”

Texas A&M to reach the 2024 Final Four. The 2024 Final Four was UConn, Purdue, Alabama, NC State; Texas A&M did not advance. Bet lost.

“winning the national title. And then I have final four flyers on Texas A and M and Colorado who are all in the South Region.”

Colorado to reach the 2024 Final Four. The 2024 Final Four was UConn, Purdue, Alabama, NC State; Colorado did not advance. Bet lost.

“You have the Niners first half money line minus 125 at bed MGM.”

KC 25, SF 22 — San Francisco 49ers lost; moneyline busts.

“I'm going with Elijah Mitchell under one and a half rush attempts.”

Elijah Mitchell had 2 carries in SB LVIII, over 1.5. (Mitchell 2 att, 8 yds)

“I'm going with the Baltimore Ravens first half, [5:35] minus six and a half at home against the Houston Texans.”

BAL 34, HOU 10 — Ravens-Texans tied 10-10 at halftime; Ravens first-half margin 0 vs line -6.5; first-half spread loses.

“I'm going to go with the San Francisco 49ers minus nine and a half against the Green Bay Packers.”

SF 24, GB 21 — San Francisco 49ers margin +3 vs line -9.5; busts.

“I'm going with the Detroit Lions minus three.”

DET 24, LAR 23 — Detroit Lions margin +1 vs line -3; busts.

“So give me the Vikings plus three and a half at this Detroit Lion team”

DET 30, MIN 20 — Minnesota Vikings margin -10 vs line +3.5; busts.

“let's go Bengals, Browns, under 37 and a half.”

CIN 31, CLE 14 — Combined 45; under 37.5 busts.

• Broncos +8.5 (teased) lost
• Cardinals +8.5 (teased) won

“here i would have bet arizona would have been one of my picks in a six-pack if this didn't get hit and i could get over a field goal this number didn come down but happy to take them up over eight so i gonna go with the cardinals and the broncos i actually going with the Jets in my teaser Yeah Plus seven and a half at the Patriots It's going to be weather in this game. The total is 30 and a half. So this is, again, just to play on the total. I know the Jets haven't beat the Patriots in quite some time. Yeah. Would you rather have your Patriots fan? Do you want the second overall pick or to beat the Jets and keep the streak alive for 16 straight time? Oh, yeah. It's just a low total game. Two good defenses, two offenses that are going to struggle. I can't pass up eight with a total of 30. And I'm going with the Broncos as well. You already laid it out, so I won't belabor the point there. Denver plus eight and a half Jets plus eight for me, Denver plus eight and a half Cardinals plus eight and a half for you.”

Parlay busts: Broncos +8.5 (teased) +8.5 — lost; Cardinals +8.5 (teased) +8.5 — won.

“Let's go Atlanta for our future. Let's go Carolina. Let's go Atlanta. But these are two really inconsistent teams. You never know where you're going to get a lot of uncertainty. It's Carr and Allen as a favorite for what it's worth. Carr 20, 37, and two against the spread as a favorite, 35%. Allen 7, 16, and one 30%. Carr is a favorite of at least a field goal, 10, 26, and two against the spread. But Carr, up and down season, he could just have a disastrous game where he can't complete a pass. The Saints' run defense has really regressed hard. That should play into Atlanta's hands. New Orleans might be just a little tighter team. Like, they're closer to the playoff, you know, getting in. They're at home. So I think Atlanta might be able to play a little looser But regardless this is just two inconsistent teams divisional game Happy to take a shot on the Moneyline Underdog price Yeah I like it I was thinking of going to Atlanta May still bet them. You know, they're kind of hovering at that plus three. But the juice is only it's even money. So if I can get the three and a half, you know, I don't think that the Saints team is going to win by margin again in another divisional game. For my Moneyline dog, I was going to go Kansas City, but this is a meaningless game. I just see the possibility of the Eagles. You know, we're already kind of hearing the whispers of the Eagles potentially resting starters. You know, the Cowboys, two touchdown favorites. So you could be scoreboard watching them pull, guys. Giants are playing well, playing hard. I'm sure they'd love to keep the Eagles from the division title. it's in New Jersey could have weather which tends to be an equalizer anyway Tyrod's given the Giants the best quarterback play they've had all year yeah let's go G-Men so G-Men are plus 200 at BetMGM Falcons are plus 145 at BetMGM”

NO 48, ATL 17 — Atlanta Falcons lost; moneyline busts.

“I'm going with the Buffalo Bills minus 12 at home against the New England Patriots.”

BUF 27, NE 21 — Buffalo Bills margin +6 vs line -12; busts.

“I'm going also back to the well with the Atlanta Falcons plus three”

CHI 37, ATL 17 — Atlanta Falcons margin -20 vs line +3; busts.

“So it's going to be Tennessee, Houston, over 43.”

HOU 26, TEN 3 — Combined 29; over 43 busts.

“I'm going to go with the Carolina Panthers against the Jacksonville Jaguars. What do I want with these? Just quarterback uncertainty. The Jags are a mess right now. We know their defense is poor. Panthers' offense has showed signs of life of late. playing a little better. But the Jags, Lawrence might not play, and if he does, he might not be able to go full strength or he might not last. Didn't practice today. He might be down to C.J. Beathard. You already have Christian Kirk on IR. Zay Jones might not play. The offensive line is a mess. They can't run the ball. All the pressure's on Jacksonville here, and everything's falling apart internally. I could, you know, with the quarterback uncertainty, let's take a shot with the Panthers. Well, that's 2.30 for Carolina. at bet MGM. I like it. I was thinking about that one as well. You know, more fun than betting the spread with Carolina because you still never know what you're going to get. Although I thought it was promising what they did against Green Bay last week, but you know, not every team has Joe Barry on the other side. I'll go with the Atlanta Falcons plus 130 at the Chicago Bears. And it's Just as simple as I still think this Bear team is still a little green in terms of, you know, knowing how to win games. You've seen them blow some weeds. Seems like most of their games end up close in the fourth quarter. And Justin Fields has really struggled as a, you know, when it's a favorite or he's not getting more than a field goal on the spread. So I think the Bears, you know, this is still kind of a toss up game. You've talked about it. I think with Tyler Heineke, the turnover risk, they're more productive turnovers. He's probably going to be taking a risk if he turns it over, whereas Ritter, as we talked about, sometimes just gives the ball away in situations that there's no benefit or upside if he accomplished what he was trying to. So like the Falcons here, I can easily see them defeating the Bears. Just hope Arthur Smith comes with one of his better game plans because he's all over the place this season. So if you parlay the Panthers plus 230 at Jacksonville and the Falcons plus 130 at the Bears You get parlay odds of plus 659”

JAX 26, CAR 0 — Carolina Panthers lost; moneyline busts.

“I am going with the New York football Giants plus six at the New Orleans Saints”

NO 24, NYG 6 — New York Giants margin -18 vs line +6; busts.

“we're going with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Plus two and a half.”

IND 30, PIT 13 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -17 vs line +2.5; busts.

“I'm going to go with the Commanders, Rams, over. always do what the lines are when we're doing this. I did bet 49. It just was 49. Now it's 50. Still like it at 50.”

LAR 28, WSH 20 — Combined 48; over 50 busts.

• Steelers +8.5 (teased from +2.5) lost
• Rams -0.5 (teased from -6.5) won

“Steelers up to eight and a half Rams down to minus a half point that's our favorite teaser of week number 15”

Parlay busts: Steelers +8.5 (teased from +2.5) +8.5 — lost; Rams -0.5 (teased from -6.5) -0.5 — won.

“If you parlay those two together, Jacksonville plus 140, Bears plus 145, you get plus 488 odds. So pretty juicy. But at this point, make sure you bet them individually because Stuck, you've been hitting these a lot more.”

JAX 7, BAL 23 — Jacksonville Jaguars lost; moneyline busts.

“I'm going with the Seattle Seahawks plus 10 and a half at the San Francisco 49ers.”

SF 28, SEA 16 — Seattle Seahawks margin -12 vs line +10.5; busts.

“Arizona, over 41.”

PIT 10, ARI 24 — Combined 34; over 41 busts.

• Jaguars -2.5 lost
• Jets +8.5 closed +2 · CLV +6.5 won

“but Jags are one of my favorite teaser pieces of the weekend. Low total. I think the total is down to 38. You're crossing the 7 and the 3. that is just the ideal teaser piece jake browning is just not the guy and i mean this bangles defense is a mess uh dead last and explosiveness loud their corners they're so secondaries a mess right now they're giving defense runs yeah i mean it's bad so i i don't i can't see jake browning and this bangles team going in the jackson getting the win so it's jackson down to two and a half and we're reluctantly i'm teasing tim boyle up to eight and a half through the three and seven this total i made 32 i don't know 34 it's that uh and that's i didn't even that's the weather adjustment usually totals i can't remember the last time i made a total that low when it wasn't like in cleveland with like 30 mile an hour winds so yeah obviously points could be at a premium here can the Jets get the 10?”

Parlay busts: Jaguars -2.5 -2.5 — lost; Jets +8.5 +8.5 — won.

• Saints +4 closed +4 · CLV 0 lost
• Jets ML closed +115 · CLV +10¢ lost

“the Saints plus four. This is kind of when you want to bet Carr anyway as a dog. I think the market's overreacted to the Saints injuries. I don't want to back Derek Carr and Dennis Allen at all at this point, but I agree. I think Detroit's kind of showing their colors. It's like the reverse of last year. Last year, the defense started terrible and then got decent down the stretch. This year it was decent. I've been onto this Detroit defense. You've called it I think they're a bottom 5D dog shit. I think they're safe for this game. Let's parlay that with the New York Jets. Lost 125 at home against the Atlanta Falcons. Uncertainty. That's really what we're looking for here. Don't have enough certainty to take... That's on the spread. And honestly, you know, I think it's number one because there's no positive sample of Tim Boyle, like yet, like there's nothing to hang. I mean, I guess he covered, I was on him when he covered that game back in Detroit, but I mean, there's nothing to point to, but don't just focus on, you know, the negative of, you know, a team, you know, you should, you should be able to go figure out which bets to avoid. And so you do have to look at the negatives for each bet you're thinking about but in this situation it's like yeah the Jets are terrible they have a bad quarterback and a bad offense but the Jets also have an elite defense the Falcons have a bottom five defense by most metrics bottom eight at work at best and Falcons also have a bad quarterback and an offense that kind of hit or miss pretty one-dimensional here take London completely out of the game with Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed, you know, probably could do something with the cornerbacks on pits too, if you really wanted to. So, I mean, you know what you're going to get from the Falcons. And this is a Desmond Ritter disaster spot. And we know Ritter has played a lot better at home than on the road. So if the Jets are ever going to break this streak, this could be the time. You might even see Trevor Simeon here, which I think would be an upgrade on Boyle. So give me the Jets plus 125. Parlay those together. You get just under five to one odds plus 496.”

Parlay busts: Saints +4 +4 — lost; Jets ML — lost.

“laying over field goal i thought to three and a half minus 115 absolutely no-brainer play for me with green bay this is also a classic tomlin non-spot where his teams come out a little flat and uh against a team under 500 but i just i make this round one so i'm glad i'm happily took three and a half minus 115 with the packers against a steelers team that has just a ton”

PIT 23, GB 19 — Green Bay Packers margin -4 vs line +3.5; busts.

“I'm going Browns. Another Browns under 38. Chop around. I just bet a 38-1-1 minus 112.”

BAL 31, CLE 33 — Combined 64; under 38 busts.

“There's Super Bowl odds. I think you can get like 10 to one. I think over the next couple weeks home games against the Browns and Bengals win those games I think that they should be like 5-6-1 with like the Chiefs I mean they're in the same price range as the Lions come on I mean I don't know the Lions are in the NFC a much easier path but I'm going to dabble I'm always excited about my team in the Super Bowl when I see a little bit of value this Ravens team is really good in all phases so yeah give me Baltimore and I'm going to throw a little on their Super Bowl odds”

Ravens lost the AFC Championship to the Chiefs 17-10 and never reached Super Bowl LVIII. (Ravens 13-4, lost AFC Championship 17-10)

“i'm gonna go chargers”

LAC 38, DET 41 — Los Angeles Chargers lost; moneyline busts.

“I am going with the Houston Texans minus two and a half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers also like the Houston money line if you just want to avoid any shenanigans”

HOU 39, TB 37 — Houston Texans margin +2 vs line -2.5; busts.

• Panthers +8.5 closed +2 · CLV +6.5 lost
• Saints -2.5 closed -9.5 · CLV +7 won

“So let's tease the Panthers up from plus two and a half to plus eight and a half at home against the Colts. I think the Panthers offense will continue to get better. Their defense has gotten some guys back on the back end. I mean, if you look at some of their games they played this year, they play without basically their entire secondary in some of the games. So their defensive metrics are way worse. Defense looked a lot better last week, really like their defensive coordinator. And the Colts defense is a mess right now. I mean, it is a mess. Gus Bradley, duh. Gus Bradley. You also lost Grover Stewart, who hurts your run day. The secondary was always a mess. So, yeah, I'd like – and then, look, you also have a low total here of 44. Ideally, you want to try – when you tease these, under 48, under 47s, under 45 is ideal, less variance. And then I'm going to tease another low total here Tease a favorite from 8.5 to 2.5 Going with the Saints”

Parlay busts: Panthers +8.5 +8.5 — lost; Saints -2.5 -2.5 — won.

“Well, the Giants are plus 100 and the Bills plus 110.”

LV 30, NYG 6 — New York Giants lost; moneyline busts.

“i'm gonna go with my new england patriots plus nine and a half”

MIA 31, NE 17 — New England Patriots margin -14 vs line +9.5; busts.

“Stuck has the Patriots plus 9.5, the Packers plus 1, and the Broncos plus 7.”

GB 10, MIN 24 — Green Bay Packers margin -14 vs line +1; busts.

“I'm going to go with the Carolina Panthers, Houston Texans over 43 and a half.”

CAR 15, HOU 13 — Combined 28; over 43.5 busts.

“I'm going to go with the Los Angeles Rams minus three against the Pittsburgh Steelers.”

LAR 17, PIT 24 — Los Angeles Rams margin -7 vs line -3; busts.

“and the kansas state chiefs 10 and a half is the spread the chiefs are favored The total is, let me double check because the total has been moving around. The total is 47.5. I could see some weather, but, you know, big spread. Total going down. Weather. Kansas City, 13-27. 32% against the spread when favored by more than a field goal since early November 2020. That also includes the postseason. Stuck. you're going to be on the Broncos if I'm correct, right? Yeah, nothing big. It's Thursday night. I hate it. And yeah, the Denver defense. And by the way, Denver's lost 15 in a row to the Chiefs, which is just insane. The last quarterback to beat Kansas City in a Broncos uniform. Simeon? I thought maybe we'd get it like a Simeon when the Chiefs were still bad, but I guess that didn't overlap. Yeah, the Broncos defense, they're allowing a pass rating of 124-6 through five games, fifth highest Super Bowl era. Opponent completion percentage, 77.3, highest ever through five games. They've allowed 181 points tied for the second most through five games in the Super Bowl era. They're allowing over 36 points per game. That's the most in the NFL. They're the first team since the 2020 Cowboys to allow 35 plus points per game entering their sixth game or later. Eight teams have played a game with this bad of a defense in the sixth game or later in the last 20 years. They They are six and two against the spread. Look, and I didn't even mention the run defense issues. Like they can't stop the run either. And they have some injuries. It's just a bad defense. It's a bad scheme defense. The personnel isn't great. That said, I think that this line is a bit too high. I mean, I'm closer to nine. Then you throw in like the weather, which is going to adversely impact the Chiefs more so than the Broncos And the Chiefs offense is still a little they still figuring some things out even though they on a historic pace for third and longs I mean, the conversion rate is the highest in NFL history at the season end of today. And like the third place team and the fifth place team in their rankings were the Chiefs of the last couple of years, but their offense isn't as good as it's been. And Mahomes has gotten away with a couple turnover-worthy throws. Kelsey might be a little banged up or limited here. you know there's injuries on the defensive side of the ball for Kansas City and you can still run on the Chiefs and I think that's what the Broncos are going to do here they are going to just try to try to grind this game down you get Javante Williams back this week which makes a game plan more conducive to hey let's just run at Kansas City so I think this spread is too high and we've seen the Chiefs flop as you know double digit favorites really bigger over a touchdown but they still know how to run the clock down like we saw against the Jets better than any team in the NFL this is a good buy low spot on the Broncos who I believe haven't covered a game all year divisional dog catching double digits in weather very enticing for what it's worth double digit dogs this early in the season so week six or earlier 51 30 and four against the spread over the past 20 years so I think Denver's the play it's scary with my homes and even if they just handed off a lot. They could still carve up this Denver D, but I think this spread's a little too high, so I'll have a small play on the Broncos.”

KC 19, DEN 8 — Denver Broncos margin -11 vs line +10.5; busts.

“I'm going with the Carolina Panthers plus 13.5 against the high-powered Miami Dolphins.”

MIA 42, CAR 21 — Carolina Panthers margin -21 vs line +13.5; busts.

“We're going to go Baltimore, Tennessee. [45:08] We're going to go overseas to London, over 41.”

TEN 16, BAL 24 — Combined 40; over 41 busts.

“I'm going to go with the Patriots. [51:37] We talked about it earlier, and I think this is it.”

LV 21, NE 17 — New England Patriots lost; moneyline busts.