Memphis ML (vs Colorado State) closed -119 · CLV -1¢
“Memphis
is one of my favorite first round bets.
They are an underdog in a five twelve game as the five seed that's gonna catch a lot of eyes.
But the big thing for me there is Memphis is is poor in predictive analytics because they're terrible against bad teams.
Like, they they are the opposite of a computer tricker where when they play somebody they're a 20 favorite against, they win by seven.
And when they're a 30 favorite, they win by seven again. Like, they just don't really blow teams out.
But if you put a team across from them that they view as their equal and, you know, top 25, top competition,
that's when Ganzai or that's when Memphis shines. And I think we'll see that against Colorado State. Maybe a little chip on the shoulder, like, we're underdogs against the 12 seed.
After all we did in the nonconference, they played one of the best schedules of anybody in the country, flew all over the country,
so I'm not worried about them going all the way across to Seattle for this game.
I think it sets up well for for Penny Hardaway to play the disrespect card in the locker room, and and you get a a Memphis win there in the first round.”
70-78 — Colorado State upset Memphis 78-70 in the NCAA Tournament first round; Memphis moneyline loses.
Over 153.5 (High Point vs Purdue)
“Two totals I like quite a bit, High Point and Purdue the over. I'm actually surprised this one hasn't gone up from one fifty three and a half.”
63-75 — Purdue beat High Point 75-63, a combined 138 points; the over 153.5 busts.
Under 134.5 (Clemson vs McNeese) closed +135.5 · CLV -1
“I think that's gonna be a real problem, and you just see points back and forth. The other big total I like, Clemson and McNeese,
the under in that one. And this one is really tempo based where I think both will slow each other down.
They kind of press to slow the game down. Like, Clemson doesn't even try to get steals in their press. They're just, like, making you use the shot clock, get far down into it, and and have to take a tough one with five or ten seconds on the clock. And if you, you know,
extrapolate
that over the course of a game where both teams are doing that to each other, I think the possession count comes in way under what's projected here in 134 and a half, 134. I've I've taken quite a bit of that as well.”
67-69 — McNeese upset Clemson 69-67, a combined 136 points; the under 134.5 busts.
Saint Mary's -3.5 (vs Vanderbilt) closed -4.5 · CLV +1
“So I I laid some three and a half. I think it's more four in the market now, but I I think that's an okay price as well.
Saint Mary's.”
59-56 — Saint Mary's beat Vanderbilt 59-56, a 3-point margin; Saint Mary's -3.5 busts.
UC San Diego ML (+2.5 underdog vs Michigan) closed +113 · CLV +7¢
“First one, UC San Diego, and I know this isn't, you know, a crazy one with the trendy, and it's only plus two and a half. So we're not going nuts with an outright type dog here, but I I just I love this team all season, and I like the matchup.”
65-68 — Michigan beat UC San Diego 68-65; UC San Diego moneyline loses.
Yale ML (underdog vs Texas A&M) closed -330 · CLV -15¢
“So u c u c San Diego is one there for sure.
And then right next to them in the bracket, I like Yale. There's some
situational stuff that's that's brutal for them with having played Sunday, and then they have to go and play at Altitude on Thursday in Denver. I don't love that.
But the matchup with with Texas A and M doesn't scare me that much. You know, Texas A and M's huge strength getting all over the offensive glass. They try to win the the extras, win the possession battle, and Yale can compete there. It's a really good defensive rebounding team.”
71-80 — Texas A&M beat Yale 80-71; Yale moneyline loses.
Texas Tech to make the Final Four
“I'm going with Texas Tech, and maybe there's some stubbornness for me here because I picked them to the final four in the preseason when they were, like, barely a top 25 team, and now they're sitting here seventh and Ken Pound.”
Texas Tech (3-seed) lost the Elite Eight to Florida 84-79; Florida went on to win the 2025 national championship. Futures bet lost.
UC Davis Aggies -4
“And then one bet I am on is UC Davis. I think they're minus four now, a team I like there.”
CSUB 71, UC Davis 66 — Cal State Bakersfield beat UC Davis outright 71-66 on Feb 20, 2025, so UC Davis -4 did not cover (ESPN box score).
Mark Vital Under 12.5 PRA
“Mark Vital under 12 and a half points, rebounds, and assists.”
Baylor's official box score records Mark Vital with 2 points, 1 rebound, and no assists: 3 PRA, under 12.5. (Mark Vital 3 PRA)
Baylor -7 closed -7.5 · CLV +0.5
“I'm sticking with Baylor.
I mentioned how well that first half went for us.
I'm going with Baylor minus seven.”
BAY 62, VILL 51 — NCAA Tournament results show Baylor beat Villanova 62-51, so Baylor covered -7.
St. Bonaventure +1.5
“So I like Bonaventure here. I'm a little worried about foul trouble since they don't have much depth, but it's a talented team.
Great starting five. I think they'll control the tempo and they're very, very well coached.
They'll have a great game plan. Give me the Bonneys plus one and a half.”
LSU 76, SBU 61 — NCAA Tournament results show LSU beat St. Bonaventure 76-61, so St. Bonaventure failed to cover +1.5.
OVER 161.5
“I will ride with the over 161.5.”
ARK 85, COLG 68 — NCAA Tournament results show Arkansas beat Colgate 85-68, a 153-point game that stayed under 161.5.
UT Arlington -3 closed -6 · CLV +3
“Mavericks are a great bet tomorrow so give me UT Arlington minus three”
UTA 64, ARST 56 — ESPN's 2020-21 UT Arlington schedule records a 64-56 win over Arkansas State on February 27, so UT Arlington -3 covered.
Cal Baptist +12 · Circa closed +9 · CLV +3
“to take away the three-point arc.
So I think that benefits them as well.
There's a little bit of worry about GCU's mountains
dominating the offensive glass.
But as long as Gorjok Gak stays out of foul trouble,
I think Cal Baptist can hold up there This one available at plus 12 at Circa right now So I going to lock that in plus 12 I think it going to come down because of the way the market been treating teams off
of COVID pauses.
So keep an eye out for that.
I would still take it all the way down to plus 10, though.”
GCU 71, CBU 61 — Grand Canyon Athletics records its 71-61 win over Cal Baptist, leaving Cal Baptist within +12.
Louisiana Tech -1 closed -1 · CLV 0
“Ultimately this is just a solid spot for Louisiana Tech. Five of their last six have been on the road, while UAB has been at home for five of their last six. Now you flip it. Big chance for Louisiana Tech to take down the team atop the Conference USA standings. Give me the Bulldogs minus one. I would take it up to minus two.”
LT 70, UAB 58 — Louisiana Tech Athletics records Louisiana Tech's 70-58 win over UAB, covering -1.
FIU -2.5 closed +3 · CLV -5.5
“FIU minus two and a half hosting UTSA”
UTSA beat FIU 87-80, so FIU -2.5 lost.
Tarleton State +7.5
“Tarleton State here. Plus seven and a half, I would take it down to plus six. Let's ride with the Texans, baby.”
Utah Valley beat Tarleton State 73-60, so Tarleton +7.5 lost.
Green Bay +2 closed -1.5 · CLV +3.5
“green bay plus two is the pick”
Green Bay beat Purdue Fort Wayne 77-59, so Green Bay +2 covered.
Charlotte +1.5 closed -1.5 · CLV +3
“I am looking at Charlotte there. open right now is a home dog to UAB plus one and a half.”
UAB beat Charlotte 75-63, so Charlotte +1.5 lost.