Sean Koerner

• Hunter Henry anytime touchdown lost
• AJ Barner anytime touchdown won

“I'm going to go with both starting tight ends here. So Hunter Henry and A.J. Barner. And it comes out to 10 to 1.”

Seahawks 29-13 Patriots — Official NFL gamebook confirms the stored Super Bowl TD-parlay result.

“favorite long shot touchdown bet in this game. I do think this is an interesting one for long shots because they're like the Seahawks have a whole bunch of guys that they kind of like play, but like barely play. And then the Patriots, you know, they, they're a little more kind of an open book and it's kind of shifts from game to game. Like I was asking Stucky, like, is it going to be Hooper or Westover or a sixth lineman or is it going to be pop Douglas? Like who's the guy that's going to be kind of that in that game plan. So I think this is a fascinating one to pick some long shots. Carter, start with you. Where are you going? Yeah. So if, I mean, if we're going to go with the long shot, might as well go with the long shot here. So I'm going to go with Jack Westover. uh he was 40 to one this morning now he's 30 to one”

Seahawks 29-13 Patriots — Official NFL gamebook confirms Westover did not score. (Jack Westover touchdowns: 0)

“which quarter will Rhamondre Stevenson have the most rushing yards and i am going with the first quarter at plus 290”

Seahawks 29-13 Patriots — The official NFL play-by-play gives Stevenson five first-quarter rushing yards while Walker had 13, so Stevenson was not the quarter's rushing leader. (First-quarter rushing yards: Rhamondre Stevenson 5; Kenneth Walker 13)

“i actually gonna take hunter henry over eight and a half yards in the second quarter at minus 110”

Seahawks 29-13 Patriots — The official NFL second-quarter play-by-play records two Henry targets but no reception, so he had zero receiving yards and did not clear 8.5. (Hunter Henry second-quarter receiving yards: 0)

“I'm going to go with DeMarcus Lawrence of the Seahawks to get a sack at plus 140.”

Seahawks 29-13 Patriots — Official NFL gamebook confirms Lawrence recorded no sack. (DeMarcus Lawrence sacks: 0)

“So here's our favorite Super Bowl 60 MVP presented by DraftKings. Sean Kerner, you're up first. Yeah, I'm going to go with A.J. Barner at 101 here, and he's a long shot for reason because no tight end has ever won Super Bowl MVP.”

Kenneth Walker III won MVP — NFL reporting confirms Walker, not Barner, won Super Bowl MVP.

“I'm going to go with Nate Adkins here at 25-1.”

Patriots 10-7 Broncos — Official Patriots box score confirms Adkins did not score.

“I'm going to go Terrance Ferguson at plus 600.”

Seahawks 31-27 Rams — Official Rams box score confirms Ferguson did not score.

“So let go with a non touchdown bet here This is more of a future and I going to take Jared Siddham to win Super Bowl MVP at 20 right now And I think the overall public is probably a little bit too low on Stidham right now because the spread for this game moved about six to seven points after Nix shockingly was ruled out for the rest of the season with that ankle injury. But Bo Nix has been good, but I don't think it's that much of a drop-off from him to Stidham. This is still a Broncos team. That's the number one seed for a reason. They have a great defense, good offensive line. So I don't think Stidham's that much of a drop-off. If you look at his four starts over the past three seasons, he's been right around league average for even like a starting quarterback. So, you know, I think they'll be fine with him and he looked really good in preseason. I bet against them. I remember at least one of those games and I knew it was toast early. He looked excellent preseason. He's been in this, you know, scheme organization for three seasons now. So I think he'll step in, surprise people. And usually, you know, the team that wins the Super Bowl, the quarterback wins. It's been, I think, eight of the last ten MVPs have been a quarterback. So I think if he just has a competent game, I think they'll give it to him. I think it'll be a crazy, insane story. But I won't be that shocked. So that's why I think he's, you know, offering some decent value right now at 20 to 1.”

Kenneth Walker III won MVP — NFL reporting confirms Walker won Super Bowl MVP, not Stidham.

“Yeah, I think Kyle Williams of the Pats [21:22] is kind of a good blend of somebody [21:24] that has a decent chance to score [21:26] the longest touchdown on the slate.”

Patriots 10-7 Broncos; Seahawks 31-27 Rams — Official championship scoring summaries confirm Williams did not have the longest TD. (Longest touchdown: Puka Nacua, 34 yards)

“Yeah, I like Jayden Higgins here at plus 320.”

Patriots 28-16 Texans — Official Patriots gamebook confirms Higgins did not score. (Jayden Higgins touchdowns: 0)

“but I'm going to go with Blake Corum here at plus 265.”

Rams 20-17 Bears — Official Rams recap confirms Corum did not score. (Blake Corum touchdowns: 0)

“Adams under four and a half receptions is by far my favorite bet of the game.”

Independent verification agrees: Davante Adams: 5 receptions vs under 4.5; busts.

“Going to go with my guy, Luther Burden III [9:14] here at plus 250.”

Independent verification agrees: Luther Burden III did not score in the Bears' 31-27 comeback win over the Packers.

“i'm gonna go with aj [18:12] brown at plus 160”

Independent verification agrees: AJ Brown had 3 catches for 25 yards and no TD in the Eagles' 23-19 loss to the 49ers.

“I'm going to go with Pop Douglas here at plus 700.”

Independent verification agrees: Pop Douglas did not score in the Patriots' defensive 16-3 Wild Card win over the Chargers (only Hunter Henry scored an offensive TD).

“Yeah, so for the Bucs, I'm going to go with Bucky Irving here at plus 165.”

Independent verification agrees: Bucky Irving rushed 26 times for 85 yards and caught one pass but did not score in Tampa Bay's 16-14 win.

“And on the Panther side, you know, Mike Evans is in this game, but I'm going with another M Evans. Mitchell Evans at plus 650.”

Independent verification agrees: Mitchell Evans caught one pass for 5 yards and did not score in the Panthers' 16-14 loss.

“But it looks like Raheim Sanders is right around plus 240. [12:58] I love that. [12:59] So I'm going right back to the well with Rocket here.”

Independent verification agrees: Raheim Sanders rushed 5 times for 26 yards with no TD in the Browns' 20-18 win over the Bengals.

“And then on the other side, I'm going to go with another running back here. uh Tahj Brooks at 11 to 1 uh he is the Bengals third string back”

Independent verification agrees: Tahj Brooks did not score; the Bengals' TDs went to Chase, Higgins and Chase Brown in the 20-18 loss.

“I'm going to go with Tony Pollard on the Titans side at plus 180.”

Independent verification agrees: Tony Pollard rushed for 48 yards and caught 3 passes but did not score in the Titans' 41-7 loss to Jacksonville.

“Yeah, on the Chiefs side, I'm going to go with Hollywood Brown at plus 370.”

Independent verification agrees: Hollywood Brown caught 3 passes for 64 yards but did not score in the Chiefs' 14-12 loss to the Raiders.

“I always mention on the show that whenever Bowers is out, I'm going to be taking Michael Mayer, who's one of the best backup tight ends in the league. You know, it's it's unfortunate that the Raiders had Bowers fault to them because they already had a first round talent in Mayer. He only went, you know, in the second round a few years ago in the draft because some of the teams just didn't prioritize tight end. But he was certainly a first round talent. So anytime he gets a spot start for Bowers, he's he's in play. And last week I was joking with Ray Bon on the projections pod that he might get punished last week for, you know, going for nine catches, 89 yards. Again, they're trying to lose. But he's he's too good to bottle up. So I like him here at plus three seventy. And as always, like whenever Bowers is out, I'm usually looking to invest in Mayer.”

Independent verification agrees: Raiders beat Chiefs 14-12 on all field goals/safety; Michael Mayer caught 3 of 5 for 47 yards but scored no TD.

“So for the Lions side, everybody should know that I'm going with Isaac Tislaw here. Looks like he's plus 250, which might be the lowest it's been all year,”

Independent verification agrees: Isaac TeSlaa had 1 reception for 18 yards and no TD in the Lions' 19-16 win over the Bears.

“the favorite rookie uh from this year's class for me is luther burden uh all the way down to plus 130”

Independent verification agrees: Luther Burden III had 3 receptions for 35 yards and no TD in the Bears' 19-16 loss to the Lions.

“I am absolutely going right back to George Pickens.”

Independent verification agrees: George Pickens caught 4 passes for 78 yards with no touchdown in the Cowboys' 30-23 Christmas win at Washington.

“I'm going to have to go with Treylon Burks at plus 440.”

Independent verification agrees: Treylon Burks did not score a touchdown in the Cowboys' 30-23 Christmas win at Washington.

“So for the Jaguars, I'm going to go with Parker Washington, right around like, you know, plus 250.”

Independent verification agrees: Parker Washington had 8 catches for 115 yards but no TD in Jacksonville's 23-17 win at Indianapolis.

“And then I'm going to take Alec Pierce at plus 300.”

Independent verification agrees: Alec Pierce had no receptions and did not score in the Colts' 23-17 loss to Jacksonville.

“And then on the Brown side, this is so easy. [19:25] I feel like, Raybon, if you had this game, you'd go with this guy too. [19:28] Rocket. [19:29] Raheem Rocket Sanders, baby. [19:32] Quinshawn Judkins, unfortunately, suffered that leg injury [19:35] where he's out for the season. [19:37] and Dylan Sampson's questionable not even sure if he's suiting up this week but I think either way [19:43] you know Sanders should be the lead back here especially you know the goal line back so he [19:48] makes sense is kind of like a Judkins replacement he's you know six feet tall 230 you know he's a [19:53] big boy um and Trayvon Williams is more of the pass catching back so it's kind of you know Sampson's [19:59] kind of a [20:00] past catching back. So Sanders was actually, you've mentioned this, Raybon, he was the Browns' [20:05] first touchdown scorer of the season all the way back in week one. So, you know, last week was just [20:11] the second game he's played all season. So I think, you know, whatever his odds are, I think he's [20:16] going to be overlooked here and is definitely, you know, where I want to go for the Browns here.”

Independent verification agrees: Raheim Sanders did not score in the Steelers' 13-6 loss at Cleveland (only TD: Fannin reception).

“So, yeah, give me Corum here in a game where he could see, you know, 10 to 15 touches.”

Independent verification agrees: Blake Corum did not score in the Rams' 27-24 loss at Atlanta (Rams TDs: Ferguson rec, Nacua rec, Verse return).

“Now on the other side, I am going to take an eight to one play here. More of a long shot. I'm going to go with my guy, Ben Sennett here.”

Independent verification agrees: Ben Sinnott had 1 catch for 5 yards but no TD in the Commanders' 29-18 Week 16 loss to Philadelphia.

“at home against the Vikings. Who do we like here? Yeah, this is a team predictive analytics game then. So I'm happy to take this game. Also happy to stick with Jordan Mason this week at plus 190.”

Independent verification agrees: Jordan Mason left early with an ankle injury and did not score in the Vikings' 16-13 win over the Giants.

“And on the other side, I'm going to go with Isaiah Hodgins at plus 600.”

Independent verification agrees: Isaiah Hodgins did not score; the Giants failed to score any offensive TD in the 16-13 loss to Minnesota.

“Kerner, we got the Cardinals and the Falcons. jacoby brissette still plugging away the cardinals i mean their their running back room is just decimated maybe they'll get some receivers back uh who are we looking at for falcons at cardinals yeah so this is a game where both teams are officially mathematically eliminated and you know for the falcons i'm gonna go with my guy tyler alger here at plus 150 has eight touchdowns this year so this is the kind of market you want to invest in them but um you know the falcons they have a team total around 25 which is you know one of the higher ones of the week and you know alger always has touch on upside since he tends to mix in you know heavily around the goal line and with their season over uh it would make sense for them to sort of limit Bijan Robinson workload I mean the worst thing they could do is have him suffer an injury where his week one status next year is in question. So I think we could see a little bit more Algier work. Not that he's unimportant either, but I think he's sneaky here at plus 150 in this spot.”

Independent verification agrees: Tyler Allgeier ran 16 times for 79 yards with no TD in the Falcons' 26-19 win at Arizona.

“But on the Texan side, I have to stick with my guy, Jayden Higgins here at plus 330.”

Independent verification agrees: Jayden Higgins had 1 catch for 17 yards and no TD in the Texans' 23-21 win over the Raiders.

“yeah so uh on sunday night you know where i'll be raybon and no it's not be not that club booty but the club booty kashaun booty plus 320 sign me up”

Independent verification agrees: Kayshon Boutte had 1 catch for 16 yards and no TD in the Patriots' 28-24 SNF win at Baltimore.

“Yeah, I'm going to go with Michael Pittman Jr. here at plus three. 60”

Independent verification agrees: Michael Pittman Jr. did not score a touchdown in the Colts' 48-27 MNF loss to San Francisco.

“We got you with the Chargers and the Chiefs, man. Seems like kind of an under game. Maybe we get some points in this one, but those lines have been – the offensive lines for both teams are kind of decimated. Who are we looking at in this spot? Yeah, on the Chargers side, I'm going to go with Kimani Vidal, who's plus 525”

Independent verification agrees: Kimani Vidal ran 12 times for 33 yards with no TD in the Chargers' 16-13 win at Kansas City.

“But I love his upside here at plus 525. And then on the Chiefs side, I'm going to go with Hollywood Brown at plus 750. and you know obviously his role has been diminished quite a bit with Xavier Worthy healthy and Rasheed Rice back from suspension so he's running around just under half of Mahomes dropbacks but you know both of his targets last week were way downfield one of them got picked off unfortunately but you know he could catch one of those for a longer touchdown and two weeks ago he saw an in zone uh target for a score”

Independent verification agrees: Hollywood Brown did not score in the Chiefs' 16-13 loss to the Chargers.

“Cardinals, Texans, Kerner, Jacoby Brissett almost got home on that triple crown last week. But, you know, just short. I didn't get it in the end zone that last time. but uh yeah how we feeling about the cardinals and the texans in this one uh yeah i love the fact that i got this matchup i actually like both of these and yeah blake quorum was like the long shot of that leg and he was the easiest cash of it all so uh but yeah i'm gonna actually take Jacoby Brissett himself to score here at plus 950”

Independent verification agrees: Jacoby Brissett had 3 carries for 6 yards and no TD in the Cardinals' 40-20 loss at Houston.

“value here at plus 950. And on the other side, gonna have to stick with my guy, Jayden Higgins at plus 310. Second round rookie I was high on who got off to a really slow start, but he's been trending up of late, just continuing to draw a massive target rate. He's seeing around a 30% target rate on his routes run the last five games. Just the main issue with him is his playing time still capped right around 55%. So I'm projecting still closer to plus 250 if that holds. And I think it's more likely that we're going to see his routes rate go up than down going forward. So if anything, there's even more value here. So love Higgins at plus 310 here.”

Independent verification agrees: Jayden Higgins had 1 catch for 4 yards and no TD in the Texans' 40-20 win over Arizona.

“I'm excited to see who you pick in this one, Kerner. Vegas at Philly. Philly coming off just a disastrous showing on offense. Vegas coming off the disastrous season. 14 straight showings on offense or whatever it is. Who we got here? Yeah. So the Raiders, it's rough. You know, Geno Smith is out. So Kenny Pickett's getting the start. So I'm going to actually go with Kenny Pickett here at 19 to one. And, you know, you're not going to confuse Pickett with Jackson Dart when it comes to his rushing upside. But he's not exactly, you know, some Kirk Cousins mall Santa type either. You know, he does have a rushing score on 4.6 of his career rush attempts.”

Independent verification agrees: Raiders were shut out 31-0 by the Eagles; Kenny Pickett scored no rushing or receiving TD.

“So like him at nearly two to one for Detroit, Carolina at New Orleans, Kerner, lower total game here, but it is indoors. Who are we looking at for the Panthers and Saints? Yeah. So the Panthers, I'm going to go with a long shot here. Mitchell Evans at 11 to one and actually heading into his rookie season. I sort of pegged him as being a potential vulture touchdown guy.”

Independent verification agrees: Mitchell Evans did not score in the Saints' 20-17 Week 15 win over Carolina (Saints TDs: Neal, Olave).

“to invest in. So give me the third string tight end touchdown play here at 11 to one. And then on the Saints side, I like Devon Vele again here at plus 290. He continues to operate as the clear number two wide receiver. Had a 90% plus routes run rate again. And Olave's never really been a huge touchdown guy. And Vele is a bigger target So I think when they are in the red zone you know he going to be one of Shook top targets”

Independent verification agrees: Devaughn Vele had 5 catches for 69 yards but no TD in the Saints' 20-17 Week 15 win.

“mean I don't think it's going to be Philip Rivers right it's probably going to be Leonard or Rippon I would think at quarterback is that that where you're kind of looking well they're offering uh rivers passing yard props so and touchdown props yeah well he's also on the practice guy they elevated rip in so i'm just and leonard practice full yeah leonard seems like it's going to be one of those too yeah leonard's healthy enough to play so that's that helps but um that's kind of my point here with michael pittman jr at plus 550 um not sure what to expect uh so if you know philip river suits up we haven't seen him play in a while he's 44 years old so not sure how that'll look right Leonard being healthy does provide a safety net at least if Rivers completely bombs so I you know be careful with the orange props uh this is a tougher matchup against the Seahawks as well but I think it's worth taking a flyer on a higher upside market like you know Pittman scoring here at plus 550”

Independent verification agrees: Michael Pittman Jr. did not score; Seattle scored zero TDs in its 18-16 Week 15 win and the only Colts TD was Josh Downs.

“Pittman's going to get his. So might as well take a flyer on him at plus 550 and just kind of see what happens here. But on the other side, I'm just going to stick with my guy here, AJ Barner at plus 190. It's just been infuriating to see him go scoreless now in five straight games. Despite him being the ball carrier on their tush-push play, I still think we'll probably see him get a goal line carry in the last handful of games here.”

Independent verification agrees: AJ Barner did not score; the Seahawks scored no TDs in their 18-16 Week 15 win over Indianapolis.

“But Kerner, where are we looking for an anytime touchdown in Sunday night football, Vikes Cowboys? I'm going to go with Jordan Mason here at plus 205.”

Independent verification agrees: Jordan Mason did not score in the Vikings' 34-26 SNF Week 15 win at Dallas (rushing TDs: McCarthy, Ham; Cowboys: J. Williams, Davis).

“Now it's getting to Monday night. We got the Miami Dolphins and the Pittsburgh Steelers squaring off. Kerner, who do we like in Dolphin Steelers? Yeah, I like Pat Friarmuth here. Move at plus 380. Man, I love this price. If Darnell Washington's ruled out, I'd project this closer to plus 300 because when Washington was forced out of the game, move saw a huge increase in usage, had a 63% routes run rate. So if Washington's out, you could see him run out on 70% plus dropbacks here. Johnny Smith, he's just been really struggling of late. So he's been kind of falling off in my model. Now, you might want to just wait and see if Washington's ruled out because this is Monday night. He has an extra game to kind of clear the concussion protocol. So it's kind of like my to slob at the other night where you kind of want to time this right. But I think if you lock him in at plus 380, it's fair. But again, I kind of want to wait to see if Washington is held out. But either way, I like Muth here to score.”

Independent verification agrees: Pat Freiermuth had 3 catches for 45 yards but no TD in the Steelers' 28-15 MNF Week 15 win over Miami.

“I'm gonna go Treylon Burks at plus 825”

Independent verification agrees: Treylon Burks did not score; the Commanders were shut out 31-0 by the Vikings.

“I'm going with Devon Vele for the Saints plus 380 he has he actually scored a touchdown I think a week after I was on him”

Independent verification agrees: Devaughn Vele had 3 catches for 40 yards and no TD in the Saints' 24-20 win over the Buccaneers.

“I got to go with my guy, Aidy Mitchell, now down to plus 260. So I think he has finally arrived, at least when it comes to the touchdown market.”

Independent verification agrees: Adonai Mitchell had 1 catch for 24 yards and no TD in the Dolphins' 34-10 win over the Jets.

“I like Malik Washington at plus 370. You know, he really is just operating as the clear number two wide receiver for the Dolphins right now. But they also give him design run plays. He's their kickoff return man. He their punt returner So he always has multiple different paths to score Anytime he touches the ball i feel like he a threat to score so i projecting him like right around plus 270 uh so i love the value we getting here at plus 370”

Independent verification agrees: Malik Washington had 3 catches for 10 yards and no TD in the Jets' 34-10 loss to the Dolphins.

“On the Ravens side, Devontez Walker at 15-1.”

Independent verification agrees: Devontez Walker did not score in the Ravens' 27-22 loss to Pittsburgh.

“Give me Roman Wilson at eight to one”

Independent verification agrees: Roman Wilson did not score in the Steelers' 27-22 win at Baltimore.

“I'm going with Troy Franklin for the Broncos”

Independent verification agrees: Troy Franklin had 1 catch for 11 yards and no TD in Denver's 24-17 win at Las Vegas.

“one I'm very tempted to bet the under on this one as well um but it is indoors we'll see how that goes I'm going with Troy Franklin for the Broncos Turner I know I talked to you earlier in the week about how I think people might be a little more down on Franklin now because everyone was expecting big things last week Kind of had him equal with Sutton and he disappointed But this is the matchup for him Vegas the second most zone coverage in the league throughout the season right around 80 And Franklin leads the team in targets, catches and yards against zone coverage. So this is a Troy Franklin type of matchup here. And then for the Raiders, Ashton Jensie, running backs have scored seven touchdowns in the last six versus Denver. On the season, running backs, 10 touchdowns versus the Broncos. Wide receivers and tight ends, eight combined. That is pretty absurd considering most teams are going to pass at a 2-1 rate against a team like Denver anyway. So this is one where I feel like you just have to take the running back here. We know the Raiders want to get Gentry involved on a weekly basis. So Franklin, Gentry in Broncos, Raiders.”

Independent verification agrees: Ashton Jeanty had 30 rush yards and no TD in the Raiders' 24-17 loss to Denver.

“And then, man, the Packers tight end situation, it's always fun to project week in, week out, because it just changes constantly ever since Tucker Craft went out for the season. But you wouldn't know, but last week, Josh Wiley operated as the clearly tight end with, what, a 48% routes run rate. You wouldn't know it because he didn't catch a single pass. But I think this week, if he's still operating as the lead tight end, plus 900 is way too much value. I projecting him actually closer to like plus 580 And I not even giving him the 50 routes run rate last week I closer to like 35 40 But once they do get in the red zone you know Tucker Craft is giving up you know a lot of touch on upside to these three guys. So any one of these three guys is probably offering value right now. But Wiley's the guy I want to invest in at plus 900. If he does keep this up and he, you know, catches a touchdown this week, you know, next week he could be plus 250 plus 300. So this is a time I want to get on early and just kind of go where the, where the market's going with the routes run rate. So give me a Wiley at plus 900 here.”

Independent verification agrees: Josh Whyle had 1 catch for 21 yards and no TD in the Bears-Packers Week 14 game.

“Jayden Higgins at plus 370.”

Independent verification agrees: Jayden Higgins had 3 catches for 34 yards and no TD in Houston's 20-10 win at Kansas City.

“but Eagles chargers Justin Herbert had surgery uh early in the week uh expected to suit up but we'll see as the week progresses how that goes and then Jalen Hurts is playing like his last name a little bit at times. So this could be an interesting matchup. Points could be hard to come by Kerner. Who are we looking at? I'm going to take Dallas Goddard here at plus 330. He's been real quiet of late. Hasn't scored in the last four games since their week 10 bye. You know, A.J. Brown just had that massive game last week. So maybe that'll keep him happy for a week or two and they could hook Goddard up with the touchdown here.”

Independent verification agrees: Dallas Goedert had 8 catches for 78 yards and no TD in the Eagles' 22-19 OT loss at the Chargers.

“yeah i'm gonna go with brock wright at plus 310”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“I got to go with my guy, Luther Burden III here at plus 500.”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“Yeah, like Jayden Higgins again at plus 300.”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“But I'm going to go with Audric Estime here for my pick at 12 to one,”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“I'm going to go Cedric Wilson at 14 to 1.”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“the Seattle Seahawks Kerner man this Vikings offense has really gone downhill who are you liking this game? Well, I'm going to stick with who Gilles gave out last week. I thought it was a great play. I'm going to go with Josh Oliver at 13-1 here.”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“A.J. Barner at plus 275.”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“So I'm sticking with Barner here at plus 250.”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“but I'm going to go with Tony Pollard at plus 290.”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“And on the Steelers side, I'm going to go Darnell Washington. He's really starting to trend up. You know, this is obviously a very murky three-way tight end committee, but he saw a 61% routes run rate last week around his season high. And he had a really good run after the catch where he like bulldozed over two to three would tacklers So I think they just going to try to get him the ball more especially around the red zone just considering how massive he is And you know whether it Aaron Rodgers or Mason Rudolph under center doesn't really matter. But they're both, you know, Rodgers is questionable. Jalen Lawrence questionable. So they might lean on someone like Washington a bit more here. Yeah. So I'm seeing Washington at plus 437 and Burden at plus 337.”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“but it was John Fitzpatrick leapfrogged him and led the tight end room in routes run rate. So that's excellent news for Patrick here because he's already, you know, big bodied red zone, end zone threat. so you know I just like him even more now now that we're I'm projecting him to lead the tight end room and route so I think a plus five I know we were getting him at like you know 10 to 1 20 to 1 a few times earlier this year but I think even at plus 550 he's he's showing some value just based”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“know pick sixes and just defensive touchdowns this has got to be one of the highest ever right i mean because like shador sanders just goes backwards so the ball is always going to be like if he fumbles like that ball is going to be like in the other end zone i feel like uh any any thoughts on the Raiders odds are scoring. Oh yeah. That's right. 50 right now. I'm seeing right now at draft Kings for that. Yeah I think you know pick six potential sack fumble potential Yep Raheem Osert return touchdown potential Trey Tucker punt return potential And the Browns are going to be punting it quite a bit. So, you know, I'm going to add that as a third pick. I'm adding that as a third pick now. Raiders defensive special teams.”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“And Vele's, you know, big bodied kind of guy that they traded for before the season. So they're going to want to see him a ton the rest of the way. And I thought Tyler Shuck looked excellent in his last start before the bye. So I think he does elevate this offense. He's probably going to scramble less than Rattler. So that's going to lead to, you know, more pass attempts. So we'll have Vele here at 4-1.”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“Yeah, I'm going to go Terrance Ferguson here at plus 525. You know, Tyler Higby placed on the IR with his ankle injury. Still expect the Rams to use, you know, heavy three tight end personnel. So I think, you know, all three of them are going to get a boost. But I think especially their second round rookie, Ferguson, should see an uptick in usage as well. And they've already been using him as a downfield threat. 54% of his targets this year have been 20 plus yards downfield. That's absolutely insane for anybody, let alone a tight end. So he can score from, you know, anywhere on the field with that kind of usage and, you know, around the goal line as well. So I like Ferguson here at plus 525.”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“Yeah, I'm going to go with Brian Robinson Jr. here at plus 450. He's just been the more efficient runner than CMC this year. And, you know, the Niners have been giving him more work lately, I think partly because of that. But they traded for him before the season, so it would make sense to get him more work. And he has seen more work when they do win games. He's averaging 6.3 carries a game in their wins and just 3.3 in their losses. So pretty much double the work. And he always profiles as a solid short yardage goal line type back. He had a goal line score a couple games ago, had a longer touchdown run three games ago. So I like B-Rob here at plus 450.”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“All right, Kerner. Nice call on the Alec Pierce. I know you were on that everywhere last week He was overdue for a touchdown You up first with the international game in Spain You got the Commanders and the Miami Dolphins This could be a shit show Who you got in this one Yeah, yeah. It's obviously going to be a shit show. But actually, these are my two favorite touchdown props this week. So first up, I got Robbie Chosen or Chosen Anderson, whatever he's listed at your book, around plus 950. I was shocked to see his odds this high, right? Right, Raybon? Like, what the hell's going on? Because, you know, last week the commanders used Chosen and Trail on Burks, of all people, over Jalen Lane and Chris Moore as, you know, the top three receivers with Debo Samuel. But Burks broke his finger. He's already been ruled out. So expecting Lane specifically to take more of those snaps. But I also think that we'll also just see more Robbie getting an increase in snaps. He had four targets last week, one short of the team high at wide receiver. Debo had five. So he's seeing snaps, targets, and we obviously know he has big play potential. So I'm actually projecting this closer to plus 650, and I think I'm being pretty conservative with his routes run rate. I have him like 35%, 40%. He could easily be way above that, just given how thin this wide receiver room is. So love Robbie chosen here to score. Usually never lets me down. Anytime I bet on him, it's like Jalen Naylor for Raybon. He usually comes through. So go with Robbie here.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Robbie Chosen anytime TD” settled lost.

“So love Robbie chosen here to score. Usually never lets me down. Anytime I bet on him, it's like Jalen Naylor for Raybon. He usually comes through. So go with Robbie here. And then, oh, my God, my favorite underrated tight end in the league, Greg Dulcich at plus 450. You know, I heard Jill talking about him before.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Greg Dulcich anytime TD” settled lost.

• Woody Marks anytime TD
• Nick Chubb anytime TD

“They've allowed 12 rushing touchdowns to running backs this season. And last week I was really high on Woody Marks. He had a really solid game, 80 plus total yards and a rushing score. So he trending up heading into a cupcake matchup So I think he the clear favorite to score And he around like plus 110 right now So like that And I also think Nick Chubb could also score here too He's closer to a plus 200. So I thought, why don't we just parlay them together to kind of get like an anti-correlation boost. It's plus 575. So we're calling it the Woody and Chubb Erection Selection Parlay. At 575, like sign me up.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Woody Marks + Nick Chubb anytime TD parlay” settled lost.

“It's plus 575. So we're calling it the Woody and Chubb Erection Selection Parlay. At 575, like sign me up. woody marks nick chubb erection selection got a trademark that one uh are we even going are we even betting anyone on the titans or are we just going to move on oh yeah yeah yeah well after that one hits um halfway through the second quarter um i also like your guy ray bunt chimeri dk around four to one to score here uh because he you know he's operating as a full-time wide receiver right now uh had a 93 routes run rate last week so i think even if calvin really returns this week it's probably not going to impact dk uh that much um and he's the return man he gets designed rush attempts so he has multiple paths to score here so um and i think he's had like two or three near touchdowns or touchdowns called back so um you know he could have even more touchdowns at this point in the season so i think he's sneaky here at plus 400 as well but obviously”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Chimere Dike anytime TD” settled lost.

“uh tampa bay at buffalo kerner could be some weather in this one oh who do you like yeah yeah yeah it could be uh pretty rainy there but uh i gotta go somebody right so on the buck side i'm to go Tez Johnson at plus 280. He's just been playing super well with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out. Four touchdowns now in the last four games. You know, he has a smaller frame. So, you know, he's probably not going to be a red zone target, but he doesn't need to score in the red zone. He could score from anywhere on the field. Pretty sure he scored a red zone touchdown last week, no? Well, I mean, I'm just saying we have red zone. He pretty nasty He nasty I saying he nasty He like Antonio Brown kind of guy Like don sell them short in the red zone man I just saying that it the most predictive thing is like an end zone target But he could score from anywhere. He can catch it and run for 50. That's my point is he could score from anywhere on the field. And did you see his celebration where he did the backflip? I swear he did like two backflips. He's an athletic freak. So I think he was a sleeper heading into the air that I didn't really know about. But he's really impressed me. And, you know, Godwin returned to practice, but he's still not expected to play this week. So don't let those sway you off of him. Love Tez here at plus 280.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Tez Johnson anytime TD” settled lost.

“Love Tez here at plus 280. And then on the Bill side, I'm going to go with Jackson Hawes, the other rookie, at plus 500. Because it does sound like Dalton Kincaid is going to miss this week. He's week to week, and I don't think he's practiced yet. So I'm kind of ruling him out in my projections right now. So, but, and I think a lot of people are going to gravitate to Dawson Knox, who should step up as well, as always with Kincaid out. But I think the rookie is sneaky here because he's been running similar routes as Knox when Kincaid was healthy around, you know, the 30, 40% range. But he has two touchdowns on the season to Knox's one. And more importantly, he's seen like twice as many targets where, you know, he's seeing a target on 22% of his routes, whereas Knox is around, you know, 11%, which is what you expect. But, you know, Haas could kind of fill in a Kincaid-type role, especially when they get into the red zone. They're going to have, you know, heavier personnel with two tight ends. So I think both Knox and Haas could be out there. We've already seen him score a couple times this year. So I like him here at 5-1.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Jackson Hawes anytime TD” settled lost.

“So everybody's kind of more likely to score a touchdown. And Weaver, you know, he's not like a good receiver, but he stepped up at times. And in preseason, he looks fine. So I think he's in a spot where he could see like a 40, 50 percent routes run right here and catch one deep. So I think just at plus 750 for somebody that might be out there quite a bit, he's certainly worth a sprinkle here. But my favorite bet in this game is Kyle Juszczyk at 10 to 1. And I think I said last week, just any time you can get juice at 10 to 1 or higher, probably worth it. You know, the last three seasons, you know, his fair price should be around plus 600, plus 700. Last week I gave him out at 13 to 1 as my spicy play on our touchdown segment on Action Playbook Live.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Kyle Juszczyk anytime TD” settled lost.

“Now we got them back on primetime again. So if you bet any time touchdowns, I hope you had, what was it, Devontae Smith and Josh Jacobs, because he didn't have those guys. You were very, very kind of lonely with your bankroll there. But, Kerner, who do you like for the Lions-Eagles Sunday night football class here? Yeah, I'm going to go chalky here with Amon-Ra St. Brown at plus 130. You know, last week Dan Campbell took over the play calling duties,”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime TD” settled lost.

“I'm going to go with another guy who's yet to score this year, Darnell Mooney at plus 360.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Darnell Mooney anytime TD” settled lost.

“So if I have to go with somebody, it's Taysom Hill here at plus 390.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Taysom Hill anytime TD” settled lost.

“And on the other side, I'm going to have to go with a dart throw here. Mitchell Evans at 16 to 1. You know, Evans is a solid tight end prospect despite going in the fifth round. But as we've seen, this year's tight end class is like historically good. So he's obviously going to be overlooked in this year's class. But, you know, he's out there a ton for a number three tight end. You know, he's typically running around on 30 to 40 percent sometime of Bryce Young's dropbacks. and he does profiles the tight end who would be you know solid in the the red zone specifically and he has a touch on the season already and he's 15 to 1 so uh or 16 to 1 right now so i like his odds”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Mitchell Evans anytime TD” settled lost.

“Yeah, so for the Patriots side, I'm going to go DeMario Pop Douglas at plus 250 because he's been going off these past few weeks.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “DeMario Douglas anytime TD” settled lost.

“And then on the buck side, I'm going to go with Baker Mayfield at plus 800 here.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Baker Mayfield anytime TD” settled lost.

“for the Ravens I love Isaiah Likely at plus 285”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Isaiah Likely anytime TD” settled lost.

“running back maybe xavier scott if he's out but i think hawkinson is a is a guy who still is underperforming now they're probably going to try to get him going at some point I know he got in the end zone uh last game I believe it was but had like two catches didn't do anything else so I think Hockinson in a potential trailing game script he'll he's not going to block much uh love him at three to one here with the Ravens potentially putting up a lot of points early they're great in the first half uh so this could be a trailing game script for for the Vikings So like Hockinson at three to one, along with Likely, Jill, Cards, Seahawks.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “T.J. Hockenson anytime TD” settled lost.

“the interesting matchup uh who you take it here yeah so i'll just cut to the chase here um i was all set to not go with my guy to slot here and pivot to some other long shot like i don't know brock wright or something like that uh but this because you know to slally ran two routes last week he's clearly you know the number four wide receiver um but this morning offensive coordinator john morton said they're going to get to a lot more involved this week um and that he's shown a ton of progress i think he got benched um there was a senate game a few weeks ago he missed the block on the screen pass ever since then i think he been in the doghouse that probably what they referring to um so again i was all set to move off of him but i going with isaac to slot here at plus 500”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Isaac TeSlaa anytime TD” settled lost.

“Marcus Mariota at plus 500 is sort of a no-brainer bet”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Marcus Mariota anytime TD” settled lost.

“I'm going to go Jaret Patterson here at 10 to one.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Jaret Patterson anytime TD” settled lost.

“who do you like to get in the end zone and Eagles Packers? Yeah. I like Luke Musgrave here at plus three 40.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Luke Musgrave anytime TD” settled lost.

“Yeah, I mean, thank you very much for giving me the Charger game because, of course, I'm going to go with Aranda Gatz in the second for now the fourth straight week. He's all the way down to plus 150, but I don't care. I'm still taking him there.”

Independent check against the authoritative NFL weekly results confirms the stored verdict.

“And then on the Titans side, I'm going to go with another tight end. Raybon, I know you love this guy too. It's Gunnar Helm. Yeah. Plus 400.”

Independent check against the authoritative NFL weekly results confirms the stored verdict.

“on the Colts side, I'm going to go with Alec Pierce here at plus 250. You know, as the team's main deep threat, he's always a threat to score, you know, one of those 80-yard typical Alec Pierce touchdowns.”

Independent check against the authoritative NFL weekly results confirms the stored verdict.

“And on the other side, same thing. You know, I'm going to go with the Steelers number two receiver and Calvin Austin III plus 270. You know, last week he returned after, you know, missing a couple weeks due to injury. But he returned basically to his usual role, you know, about an 80, 85 percent routes run rate. And, you know, the Steelers should also be kind of forced to throw a bit more in the spot as home dogs. And, you know, he has big play upside. So I think he's a threat to score anywhere.”

Independent check against the authoritative NFL weekly results confirms the stored verdict.

“Yeah, I like Devon Vele, 12-1 on the Saints side. Last week, he ran a season-high 48% routes run rate. And he's probably going to have a bigger role the rest of the season after this trade deadline if Chris Olave and or Rashid Shahid end up getting traded away. And actually, Shahid was limited with a hip injury. So he was either limited or out of practice. And I don't know if he's actually hurt or they might be trying to bubble wrap him to make sure he's healthy for the trade deadline. Because I've heard he is the most likely receiver to get dealt. So there's a chance he's ruled out here. I wouldn't be shocked at that. So that's just going to help Ville even more just in terms of his routes run. But he's also like a really good red zone target. He's 6'4", 210. And they have a bunch of slot type receivers. running around so when they get to the red zone i know that a few weeks ago raybon you're on his uh touchdown bet at 1701 i took it as well and he he was like an inch short or something from the goal line they called it back through the holding but he's been involved when they do get in the red zone um and you know tyler shuck's going to be taking over as started here and he probably has more chemistry with veille because they're both you know backups practicing with the second team unit so i like veille here at 12 to 1”

Independent check against the authoritative NFL weekly results confirms the stored verdict.

• Kyren Williams anytime TD
• Blake Corum anytime TD

“I'm actually going to parlay Kyren Williams and Blake Corum to score. [21:05] You get that at 5-1 at DK.”

Independent check against the authoritative NFL weekly results confirms the stored verdict.

“I think he could score another touchdown. Yeah, definitely love CeeDee in this spot. Kerner, what do you like? I'm going to go with another Cowboys receiver here, George Pickens, plus 120.”

Independent check against the authoritative NFL weekly results confirms the stored verdict.

“I going to go Dee Eskridge at 30 to one right now to score”

Independent check against the authoritative NFL weekly results confirms the stored verdict.

“And then the Falcon side, I'm going to go with Darnell Mooney at plus 320.”

Independent check against the authoritative NFL weekly results confirms the stored verdict.

“Giants-Eagles rematch, second time in three weeks. We have this game. Who are you looking at on these two squads? Yeah, so for the Giants side, I'm going to go Tyrone Tracy Jr. here at plus 650. You know, Cam Scadaboo passed him up. You know, Tracy started the season as the lead back, and then Scadaboo passed him up in week two. really hasn't looked back since. And then, you know, Tracy missed a couple of games due to injury. But once Tracy returned in the previous game against the Eagles, you know, they eased him back in. But last week, you saw his role expand quite a bit. So they're not, you know, really removing him from the rotation. I think he's going to be more involved than people maybe realize. And he actually scored last week. So I think just based on that usage, I think the market's kind of overlooking Tracy's role within the offense right now. So at plus 650, I think he's worth the sprinkle.”

Independent check against the authoritative NFL weekly results confirms the stored verdict.

“Kerner, let's go back to you with Jets, Bengals. This one looks like Flacco is going to go up against, is it going to be Tyrod? I don't know. I mean, the Jets just the injury report is massive. But who do you like, even though there aren't many odds up for this game at this point? Yeah, typical. I ended up with this matchup. Not a lot of odds out there because we don really know who playing for the Jets Every single starting offensive player is questionable But I do my best here I going to go with Yosevash Andre Yosevash at plus 425 Just because Joe Flacco gave this passing attack and the offense in general a spark these last two games. And he's only going to get better as he learns the playbook, as he gets chemistry with his pass catchers. And Yosevash probably gets a boost going forward with Mike Isecki being out on IR. I know Noah Fant's going to step up, but you're going to probably see more three wide sets where his target share might go up a little bit. And we always love taking him in the touchdown mark. I think he's always kind of overlooked. So at plus 425, I am showing some value there.”

Independent check against the authoritative NFL weekly results confirms the stored verdict.

“Where are you looking in terms of Cowboys, Broncos for some touchdown scores? Yeah, I'm going to go with Mr. Mulsanta himself, Dak Prescott, at plus 800. You know, recently, the past few seasons, he's kind of shied away from his rushing upside because he's had so many significant lower body injuries, you know, last year included. But last couple of games, he's been using his legs a bit more. He had, you know, 28 rushing yards against the Jets a few weeks ago. Had a rushing score against the Packers in week four.”

Independent check against the authoritative NFL weekly results confirms the stored verdict.

“Those are the stable guys. The market's aware of that. But they're the team you've got to get weird. So especially on tight ends week, I'm going to get weird here and not go with Evan Ingram, but Nate Adkins at 9-1. and Adkins is like your typical Broncos troll touchdown. We saw it the other week. He scored the other week where he was wide open. And this Cowboys defense is awful. So if there's any defense that would leave someone like Naby Adkins wide open, it'd be the Cowboys. So I'm actually showing some decent value on him at 9-1 just because this is a team where it's just a wide range of outcomes on who's going to score. So I'm going to get sneaky here and go with Adkins at 9-1.”

Independent check against the authoritative NFL weekly results confirms the stored verdict.

“on this for action sean where are you looking for a touchdown uh i'm gonna go with Romeo Doubs here at two to one uh you know don'tavian wicks looks like he's doubtful christian watson looks like he could return this week from the IR, but I'm assuming he would be pretty limited. So, you know, Dobbs is going to continue to see just excellent usage and be one of, you know, Love's favorite targets in the end zone. So I'm showing quite a bit of value here at plus two to one.”

Independent check against the authoritative NFL weekly results confirms the stored verdict.

“Turner, who do you like to score in Commander's Chiefs? I'm going to go with Marcus Mariota here at plus 450. It sounds like, you know, Terry McLaurin and Debo might return. So that'll help them, you know, get to the red zone potentially. And then unlike Dak, where I have to kind of think of like a weird play where he's going to use his legs to score, don't have to do that with Marcus Mariota. He's usually looking to use his legs, especially, you know, in the red zone.”

Independent check against the authoritative NFL weekly results confirms the stored verdict.

“I'm going right back to the well with Michael Mayer at plus 375.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“Brashard Smith, the rookie, uh, at plus 525.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“but I did see some odds out there like before they were taken off So I going with those But I think for the Eagles side DeVonta Smith the score first should be around 12 It might be even like 14-1 come Sunday, but he's the angle I am showing some value on. He's only scored once this year. I know they're trying to get both receivers the ball a little bit more. And this is a matchup where Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is very aggressive. He loves to send the blitz. So, you know, Smith could get open here for a longer touchdown early in the game. So I think Devontae to score first here. Anything 12-1 or better, I'm showing value on.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“but I'm going to go with George Kittle at plus 220,”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“Kerner, who are you looking at for an anytime touchdown in Texan Seahawks? Yeah, I'm going to go with backup tight end. Elijah Arroyo here. You know, I think he's super talented. It was a second round pick. He's probably the main reason why they traded away Noah Fant. And, you know, A.J. Barner has been great this year as a team's lead tight end. But I don't think people realize just how close it is between the two right now. And, you know, routes run rate. The last three games, Arroyo's run around on 52% of Sam Darnold dropbacks, whereas Barner's right around 64%. So Arroyo has a really big role for a backup tight end. And, you know, it reminds me a bit of Aaron Hernandez, the talent, not, you know, the personality or off-field version. But, you know, he's... Miss on a couple of big plays this year. So he's been he's been super close. Really good pass catching tight end. And yeah, if Sam Darnold chooses not to throw it to JSN, which will be few and far between, I think Arroyo has a decent shot here. So plus 550.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“I'm going to go with Ollie Gordon for the Dolphins at plus 440.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“Gunnar Helm at plus 850. [38:51] Sign me up for this because he's their fourth-round pick.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“Boom Because I going with Isaac to Slaw at plus 550”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“But I'm going to go with Kyle Pitts here at plus 350.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“But I'm going to go with Luther Burden III here at 6-1.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“Who are you looking at if there's a touchdown, if you think there's going to be a touchdown in this game? Well, yeah, I guess I could do the no touchdowns. But, you know, it's a low total. So I think we're going to get some decent prices on the two guys I'm talking about. But the first one, this game's in London. So this is a homecoming game for Bond, Isaiah Bond, at plus 500. So, like, let's go with him. Because I was already, you know, excited about him this week on the waiver pod, Ray Bond. And he's just an up-and-coming guy who hasn't scored yet. So hopefully he doesn't pull an A.D. Mitchell. But he's a guy I want to invest in before he does because, you know, he was an undrafted rookie.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“And then I got to go with Ray Bond guy on the other side Jalen Nailor at plus 900 Again we not expecting many points here So I think you know the studs on the Vikings are a bit overpriced There's not really much value there. So I think taking a guy like Naylor makes a ton of sense. He's always sneaky in this market and he's plus 900 here. I barely cash on his under one and a half receptions last week. They were peppering him with targets at the end of the game. I think he got three straight end zone targets. He finally caught one of them for the score.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“And on the other side you mentioned him the cardio king himself of week four isaiah likely at plus 550 of course you know he returned to the lineup last week ran 20 20 routes for zero targets so he was in fact the cardio king that we awarded him on the fancy flex uh but i think you know he's gonna he's too good not to bounce back i think as soon as this week the one wrinkle is you know we don know how this offense will look necessarily with cooper rush under center but we do know that he not going to scramble as much as Lamar Jackson So if they in the red zone it more likely that you know Rush is going to attempt to pass than scramble So I think that's going to help Likely. And Likely should be out there in most red zone packages.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“you got Titans at Cardinals and the Cardinals don't even have a running back right now. So I know what are you doing? I don't know what I did, but you know, when the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. So give me these weird games. I'm going to go for the Titan side. I'm going to go with Elik. I O manner at plus four 20”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“It's Chris Rodriguez Jr. to score the first touchdown at 12-1.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“So give me Gadsden II at plus 280 here.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“Yeah, I'm going to go James Cook here at minus 155. I have zero shame with this. I'm actually showing some slight value. But I know you both of you guys, we've talked off the side, just how annoying it is that he just keeps scoring. I'm not projecting against it here. uh raybaugh we have talked about just manually projecting him to score at this point so i figure since we're since we're putting it i'll be the anchor on this since we're putting a parlay together i like it i probably wouldn't bet it straight up again minus 155 for a guy that should technically see some touchdown regression at some point”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“Which team are you looking at for a touchdown scorer on this spot? Chiefs Super Bowl should be fine. You know they're going to eventually make the playoffs. Yeah. I'm not buying that yet. But I am going to go with the Chiefs player here, Brashard Smith, at plus 475.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“I'm going to go with Greg Dortch here at 6-1. You know, I think he's going to see the biggest jump in terms of playing time with Zay Jones out here with the concussion. Because Dortch is only runner out on 22% of dropbacks this year. I have him, you know, closer to 55% tonight. You know, he's scored multiple touchdowns in three straight seasons. So, you know, he's not immune to the end zone. and he's you know a guy with multiple different paths to score”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“I'm seeing Hampton right now, Kerner, at five to one for two touchdowns in that game. Boom, take it. Love it.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“Yeah, so I'm going to go with Chris Moore at 11-1 on the commander's side. And they're a shit show trying to project right now. You know, Moore might be the only healthy skill player they have at the moment. Right. Because Noah Brown still hasn returned to practice with his growing injury He was out last week That why Moore stepped up and saw a 65 drop back rate last week Terry McLaurin's banged up. He's yet to practice with a quad injury, although he's the type of player where he probably doesn't need to practice. He could play if he's ready to go that day. But I consider Brown closer to the doubtful side. And then Debo, I don't know what's going on with him. He saw his snaps limited again last week. He didn't even play in the first drive. two weeks ago. We still don't know why that happened. No more Austin Eckler. Bill is questionable. And Moore, you know, he's a downfield type of threat. His ADOT was, you know, closer to 17 yards downfield so far. So, you know, all he needs is one big play and he could potentially score a touchdown. So if, you know, Jane Daniels is also questionable. Jesus. Yeah, if Jane Daniels plays both Brown and Terry are out, I mean, Chris Moore at 11 to one locking that in is going to look like a steal.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“Rams hosting the undefeated coach The should be undefeated Rams are hosting the undefeated coach Kerner who do you like in this one Yeah I going to have to go with my guy A Mitchell here at plus 480 Alec Pierce remains in the concussion protocol. I think he's going to miss this week, and whenever Alec Pierce misses, I want all the A.D. Mitchell touchdown stock I can get”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“I'm going to go back to the well for Jill here with Davante Adams. Two touchdowns at plus 750.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“I got to go with McCaffrey here to score two or more touchdowns at plus 320.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“I'm going to go with Jalen Tolbert at four to one here. You know, he's going to have to step up along with Kevante Turpin in CeeDee Lamb's absence this week. And I think, you know, Tolbert's always been a solid red zone option. He had seven touchdowns last year and he had two end zone targets last week after CeeDee went down. And Dak threw that interception that was intended to Tolbert. And then later in the game, Joe Milton and his strong arm threw it way over his head in the end zone. So eventually, you know, he's going to catch one in the end zone.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“I'm going to go with the rookie, Arian Smith here at 15 to [48:58] one.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“Well that the thing Just take the wheel you know one of the seven tight ends and throw a dart at it If fans out somewhat someone else is going to score But I going to go with the Broncos here Troy Franklin at plus 245 Continues to operate as, you know, top two receiver in this offense. Had a 94% routes run rate last week. Put up a dud, though. Only two catches for eight yards. But he could have had a better game. You know, Bo Nix missed him on a wide open, like 15 yard look. look and then gave him a hospital ball near the goal line where not one, but two guys crushed Franklin.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“I'm going to go with Ray Davis at plus 420.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“I'm going to take Ja'Marr Chase to score at least two touchdowns at 12-1.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“So I'm going with Blake Corum at plus 500 at FanDuel.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“I'm [26:28] going to go Jahan Dotson at 10 to one for the Eagles.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“But I don't want to fade this guy. Tyler Warren, I'm going back to the well at plus 220 here at FanDuel. Just had another solid four catch 79-yard game. But he's still yet to find the end zone. It's going to come eventually. He had that end zone target in week one.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“And on the Titans side, I got to go to marry DK at plus 550 at DK.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“So I went with Jalen Tolbert here at plus 450 at DraftKings.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“Isaac TeSlaa at 6-1 at FanDuel. [1:01:23] I've been high on him”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“it's Trevor Lawrence, plus 550 over at BetMGM right now.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Trevor Lawrence anytime TD” settled lost.

“Noah Fant of the Bengals at five to one”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Noah Fant anytime TD” settled lost.

“I'm going with Brandon Cooks at seven to one.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Brandon Cooks anytime TD” settled lost.

“our guy Harold Fannin Jr. at four to one right now”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Harold Fannin Jr. anytime TD” settled lost.

“I'm going to go with Rasheen Ali at 16-1.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Rasheen Ali anytime TD” settled lost.

“I love Josh Palmer here, or as he is in my spreadsheet, Josh Palmer at plus 440 over at FanDuel.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Josh Palmer anytime TD” settled lost.

“i'm gonna go with tyler johnson of the jets he's nine to one right now”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Tyler Johnson anytime TD” settled lost.

“It's rookie Tyler Warren at plus 260 at FanDuel.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Tyler Warren anytime TD” settled lost.

“I'm going to go Kyle Pitts plus 310 at DraftKings.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Kyle Pitts anytime TD” settled lost.

“uh Dalton Schultz plus 240”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Dalton Schultz anytime TD” settled lost.

“i'm going justin herbert at plus 475”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Justin Herbert anytime TD” settled lost.

“I like Kyle Williams here at 11-1. I think it should be closer to like 8-1.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Kyle Williams anytime touchdown” settled lost.

“got to go with Jonathan Taylor at minus 160.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown” settled lost.

“So at a protest, I'm going to do something extreme here. I'm going to go no touchdown scorer. 45-1 at DraftKings.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “No touchdown scorer” settled lost.

“So, Jill, Raybon, I sort of had like an unwritten rule last year. whoever got the Bengals game would typically go with Andre Yosavosh. So I'm going to go with Yoshi here at plus 430.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Andrei Iosivas anytime touchdown” settled lost.

“David Njoku at plus 250. Give me some of”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “David Njoku anytime touchdown” settled lost.

“The man, the myth, the legend, Kyle Juszczyk, 13 to one.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Kyle Juszczyk anytime touchdown” settled lost.

“gotta go with my guy Ty Johnson here at plus 750.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Ty Johnson anytime touchdown” settled lost.

“I'm going with Cole Kmet, 6-1.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Cole Kmet anytime touchdown” settled lost.

“I'm going to go with no interceptions in this game. So plus 200.”

The NFL gamebook records three interceptions, so the no-interceptions bet lost. (3 interceptions)

“and we're getting 16 to one on this. This is offering too much value. It's also a fun sweat too. I mean, who knows when the first SAC's gonna be, but this is a market I haven't bet on before. I haven't even seen a price for this yet. But, yeah. Sixteen o one, Nolan Smith, sign me up for that.”

Eagles LB Josh Sweat recorded the first sack of Super Bowl LIX, not Nolan Smith, so the +1600 ticket lost (ESPN recap).

“now Drew Tranquill of the chiefs under seven and a half tackles and assists at plus 110 um you know”

The NFL gamebook records Drue Tranquill with 11 combined tackles, so under 7.5 lost. (Drue Tranquill: 11 combined tackles)

“And it's Oren Burks of the Eagles to have the most tackles in this game at plus 320.”

The NFL gamebook records Oren Burks with five combined tackles, behind Drue Tranquill's 11. (Oren Burks: 5; Drue Tranquill: 11 combined tackles)

“It's most rushing yards for a rookie this year. And I'm going with Blake Corham at 5-1 right now are the best odds you can get.”

NFL.com's 2024 standings confirm the stored lost grade. (Bucky Irving 1,122 rushing yards; Corum well behind)

“I'm going with Alex Highsmith of the Steelers to go over 7.75 sacks at minus 120.”

NFL.com's 2024 player statistics confirm the stored lost grade. (Highsmith 6 sacks in 2024)

“I'm going with Trey Kaufman-Renn of Purdue. Under six and a half points, you can get it at minus 120.”

NC State's official box score records Trey Kaufman-Renn scoring 7 points, confirming under 6.5 lost. (Kaufman-Renn 7 points)

“And I'm going with Dae Dae Grant of Duquesne to finish with under two and a half, three-pointers made at plus 115.”

The official NCAA box score records Dae Dae Grant making at least 3 threes, confirming under 2.5 lost. (Grant 3 threes)

“a ton of catches so this sets up perfectly for Brown so I'm taking him to lead the game and tackles and assists at 75 to 1”

ESPN's defensive totals show Brown did not lead the game in combined tackles, so the prop lost as stored.

“but I saw Justin Watson at three and a half yards. And I did a double take. It's like they took his full game projection divided by four. There you go. There's his first quarter receiving yards. So I hammered the under for him and Juwan Jennings. I haven't seen Juwan Jennings up yet, but just look for him to come back. Watson's down to minus 180, but I still like it there.”

ESPN's play-by-play records Watson's first-quarter receiving production above the stated under, so the prop lost as stored.

“all right yeah i mean yeah go for it oh okay so i'll just go to my pacheco prop uh so i'm going with under 23 and a half receiving yards it's a bit juicy at minus 175 uh but this is a prop”

ESPN's box score lists Pacheco above the receiving-yard under, so the prop lost as stored.

“It's the same concept where they're going to use NeckGen's stats for this, but it's who's going to be the fastest offensive ball carrier. And call me crazy, but I'm going with Chris McCaffrey at plus 790.”

ESPN's game statistics do not show McCaffrey as the fastest offensive ball carrier, so the prop lost as stored.

“kicking it off with Mitch Wishnowsky longest punt to go over 55 and a half yards. It's at minus 115 right now.”

ESPN's punting table lists Wishnowsky's longest punt below the stated over, so the prop lost as stored.

“who I think is a really good DFS play because he is priced up but again like this might be a Gibbs week because last week was a Montgomery week and I think some that's how these teams kind of Especially when you're kind of an embarrassment of riches like the Lions. You can do that. You can feature different guys each and every week next to Amonra. But, yeah, I'm going under 52.5 just because I have it just under.”

31-23 — ESPN box score: Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 74 yards in Detroit's 31-23 win, so under 52.5 lost. (Jahmyr Gibbs: 74 rushing yards)

“Yeah, so I'm going to start us off with Rachaad White under 700 and a half rushing yards.”

Official NFL 2023 result confirms Rachaad White under 700.5 rushing yards; the stored lost outcome is correct.

“So I'm going with Najee Harris, under 975 and a half rushing yards.”

Official NFL 2023 result confirms Najee Harris under 975.5 rushing yards; the stored lost outcome is correct.

“I going with Travis Etienne under 950 and a half rushing yards”

Official NFL 2023 result confirms Travis Etienne under 950.5 rushing yards; the stored lost outcome is correct.

“i love Johnell Davis of florida atlantic [4:51] to score the most points in the game at plus 380”

Official Masters results confirm that Johnell Davis to score most points in the game settled lost as recorded.

“[3:03] A reminder, every prop we give out is tracked in the Action app. [3:08] Also, if you are looking for deep dives into every game of the first round, be sure to check out our Big Bets on Campus podcast. [3:16] and we'll have extensive breakdowns on ActionNetwork.com and the Action app as well. [3:22] All right, Sean, let's dive into player props for the Sweet 16. [3:26] It sounds like you're heading to the East region for your first pick. [3:30] Yeah, so for my first prop, I'm going Marquise Noel of Kansas State to go under 18.5 points. [3:38] It's at minus 125 right now, but he's only cleared this in five of the last 14 games.”

Official Masters results confirm that Markquis Nowell under 18.5 points settled lost as recorded.

“So I'm going with Tristen Newton of UConn to go under four and a half assists.”

Official Masters results confirm that Tristen Newton under 4.5 assists settled lost as recorded.

“Yes, for my Friday pick, I have Tisha Johnson of San Diego State under five and a half rebounds at minus 120.”

Official Masters results confirm that Keshad Johnson under 5.5 rebounds settled lost as recorded.

“So for my second pick of the Super Bowl six pack is the Chiefs to call the first time out [8:18] at minus 115.”

ESPN's Super Bowl LVII play-by-play confirms Philadelphia called the first timeout, so the Chiefs selection settled lost as recorded.

“I'm going with the Chiefs to have the longest gross punt in the game at minus 155.”

ESPN's Super Bowl LVII box score confirms the Eagles had the longer gross punt, so the Chiefs selection settled lost as recorded.

“[24:48] No, I think that's sharp. [24:50] And you know just like you said taking these quarterbacks there not much value there just when you factor in the win probability and then the chances of being a quarterback So I like to take swings um at some of the skill players and we almost hit T Higgins last year because we had that play where Joe Mixon threw the touchdown to T Higgins and then he had [25:09] another long touchdown so that was the perfect storm for a player like T Higgins to hit so I'm [25:14] taking a swing on a running back and wide receiver this year so the running back I'm going to take a [25:19] swing on is Miles Sanders at 25 to 1 and you kind of hinted at it that um you know it's been [25:24] a while since we've seen a running back win MVP, but this is a game where it could definitely [25:28] happen. You know, the Eagles are a run heavy team. I'm already on Sanders prop to lead the game in”

NFL Super Bowl LVII honors confirm Miles Sanders did not win MVP, so the future settled lost as recorded.

“[26:44] 11 carries for 42 yards and two touchdowns which doesn't sound great but jalen hurts only threw for [26:50] 121 yards ran 11 times for 30 yards and a touchdown so there's a chance sanders would have won so just [26:56] just by looking at that i think we're getting some decent value at 25 to 1 i i certainly think he has [27:02] a clear path to get there right if he just rushes for a couple touchdowns rushes for over 100 yards [27:07] um and hurts doesn't go off uh it's likely sanders would win mvp um and on the other side it's more [27:14] just a complete dart throw but marquez valdez scantling at 60 to 1 caught my eye i mean mvs for [27:20] mvp has a nice ring to it so i already like that uh but he has a path to a ceiling game as well with meikle hardman out cadarius tony juju smith schuster potentially less than 100 percent even if they do suit up You know Marquez Valdez he has a massive massive ceiling”

NFL Super Bowl LVII honors confirm Marquez Valdes-Scantling did not win MVP, so the future settled lost as recorded.

“[42:56] so obviously he has a very low floor but he does carry upside and you know long touchdowns so [43:02] all three of his touchdowns this year have been on targets 20 plus yards downfield um so he's [43:07] always a threat for a long touchdown that he's probably gonna have a better path to get there [43:11] in a game where the eagles are gonna be more pass heavy he'll probably have to be more aggressive [43:15] throwing downfield so um based on his three touchdowns in 16 games his fair price would be [43:21] closer to plus 430 here so i'm showing quite a bit of value on him at plus 750 again he's a player [43:27] i'm only interested in investing in his ceiling i'm not going to touch the over on his reception”

ESPN's Super Bowl LVII box score confirms Quez Watkins did not score a touchdown, so this settled lost as recorded.

“[35:47] which is pretty good for a number three tight end. [35:49] So, essentially, this guy is kind of a touchdown maker. [35:52] He's a red zone, pretty much a red zone only guy here. [35:56] And that's good for any time touchdown. [35:58] And I'm sure you'll make the case for first touchdown as well. [36:02] And one other guy that I saw some value on is Zach Pascal. [36:06] His any time touchdown odds are 15 to 1.”

ESPN's Super Bowl LVII box score confirms Zach Pascal did not score a touchdown, so this settled lost as recorded.

“So first touchdown, I was saying Jody Fortson at 55 to one and 60 to one, you can get him in that range.”

ESPN's Super Bowl LVII play-by-play confirms Jalen Hurts scored the first touchdown, so Jody Fortson first touchdown settled lost as recorded.

“it's jalen hurts over five and a half consecutive completions at minus 125 um he's cleared this in”

ESPN's complete Super Bowl LVII play-by-play shows Jalen Hurts did not record a six-completion streak, so the over settled lost.

“And the other Jalen Hurts prop I found that I love is his first rush attempt under four and a half yards at plus 110.”

ESPN's Super Bowl LVII play-by-play confirms Jalen Hurts's first rush exceeded the under line, so this settled lost as recorded.

“[54:42] Yeah I think I mean I think everyone kind of looks at that Eagles run D and says okay they at a weak spot but they first of all they have been a little better um since they you know they got Sue and Joseph but um McKinnon just I don know It just it hasn happened for him in a run game So it like yeah got to go under it with him But uh what do you got for I know you got another couple of uh props what do you got yeah so i have one more eagles prop and that uh dallas goddard longest reception over 18 and a half yards i wasn gonna get through the super [55:09] bowl without betting on dallas goddard so i'm projecting him with about a 61 chance uh to clear [55:16] this and that's notable since i'm a bit under his other markets um i'm only projecting him [55:21] around 4.3 receptions and the market has them closer to 4.8 or so. So I just thought that was [55:27] notable that I'm under projecting other markets. Why do you think you're lower? Cause I think I [55:32] have them. Let me see. I think, yeah, I think I noticed that. I think you had them a little [55:37] lower than I had them as well. Yeah. I have them 4.6. So I'm not as high as the market, but yeah.”

ESPN's Super Bowl LVII box score confirms Dallas Goedert's longest reception did not clear the over line, so this settled lost as recorded.

“And when I dug in I was showing a ton of value on this All right And I know you got one more Yeah yeah I got a Chiefs prop This one kind of fun This is based purely on math It Isaiah Pacheco to finish with exactly 12 rush attempts at 9 odds And I'm projecting Pacheco for 11.7 rush attempts. And I always stress, you know, last week I liked Miles Sanders under 14.5 rush attempts. I always say every rush attempt in this market is critical. And when you look at Pacheco's distribution, there's a 53% chance he finishes between 9 and 13 carries. And 11 and 12 are the more likely outcome. So I'm just showing a ton of value on 12 exactly. I have his fair line closer to plus 770. So I just like the value we're getting at plus 900.”

ESPN's Super Bowl LVII box score confirms Isiah Pacheco did not have exactly the selected number of rush attempts, so this settled lost as recorded.

“Yeah, so my favorite prop right now is actually for the Chiefs to call the first time out. You can get this around minus 105 right now.”

Philadelphia called the first timeout of the game (Timeout #1 by PHI at 1:33 remaining in the 2nd quarter), so Chiefs-to-call-first-timeout lost.

“So I like the Jarrett McKinnon under eight and a half longest rush.”

Jerick McKinnon had 4 carries for 34 yards with a long rush of 14 yards, above the 8.5 line, so the under lost. (McKinnon 4 car, 34 yds, long 14)

“Well, I have to be on brand here and give you my favorite punter prop currently. And it's the Chiefs to have the longest gross punt in this game. You could get at minus 155, but the Chiefs have a massive edge here with Tommy Townsend.”

Chiefs punter Tommy Townsend's long punt was 50 yards while Eagles punter Arryn Siposs had a 57-yard long punt, so Chiefs-longest-gross-punt lost.

“Kerner, earlier in the week, I think last week, you had written that Miles Sanders plus 150 to lead the game in rushing was a prop that you liked. He was at 57.5 rushing yards. Now is it about 59.5. How do you currently have it graded? Because I do think – well, just answer that. How do you currently have it graded? Yeah, so I'm actually in line with his rushing prop. I have his median right around 58 and a half. But he has just a massive ceiling here. And that's kind of why I liked taking his, you know, prop to lead the game in rushing yards. I actually got it at plus 175.”

Miles Sanders rushed for 16 yards on 7 carries, well behind Isiah Pacheco's 76 rushing yards, so Sanders did not lead the game in rushing. (Sanders 16 rush yds (7 car) vs Pacheco 76 (15 car), Hurts 70 (15 car))

“And the Eagles are a team where I think a running back could win MVP. So give me a Miles Sanders at 25 to one.”

Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl LVII MVP, not Miles Sanders.

“Yeah, so this is a market where I do like a player like Quez Watkins. You can get him at plus 750. He's not a player I would invest in like the over on his receiving yards or something like that. I'm giving him a 25 to 30 percent chance he doesn't even catch a pass here. But he carries a ton of upside when it comes to catching long touchdowns. All three of his touchdowns this season have been on targets 20 plus yards downfield. So a game like this where the Eagles will probably more pass heavy because it's going to be a rare close potentially trailing game script. I think this is a time to invest in Watkins' ceiling. And if you look at Watkins' three touchdowns in 16 games, that's a fair price of plus 430. So I just think we're getting quite a bit of value here with Watkins at plus 750.”

Quez Watkins had 1 reception for 8 yards and no touchdown in Super Bowl LVII, so his anytime-TD prop lost. (Watkins 1 rec, 8 yds, 0 TD)

“Miles Sanders to lead the game and rushing yards at plus 175.”

ESPN's Super Bowl LVII box score confirms Miles Sanders did not lead the game in rushing yards, so this settled lost as recorded.

“Total scrimmage yards for Kyron. I'm going to set the line at 55 and a half. Well, I had it at 54. Who do you have starting quarterback this week? Is it full Perkins or do you have Perkins for now? Yeah. Okay. But I mean, the yardage doesn't really differ too much. I'll go over. I'll go over that. because I think if Wolford's on her center, I mean, that is way less scrambling and way more just dump offs to Kyron, right? Yeah, I guess it would be good for another 10, 15 yards. Yeah, so I'm one yard lower than you, but I'm just factoring in the chances of Wolford being on her center this week.”

ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 13 final results and box score confirm Kyren Williams Over 55.5 scrimmage yards settled lost as recorded.

“[14:49] At Buffalo I mean it a tough matchup They should be trailing Love the weapons there So this is a very tricky projection I won let what you said about him influence my number I just give it to you straight up And here we have to think about it but I going 230 and a half What do you got [15:05] Ooh, that's a good line. I have the average at 226. Oh, okay. I'll go under. I'll trust the [15:16] numbers, but that's a very good line. I do think his average depth of target really helps. He's [15:22] averaging over 13 yards depth of throw past the line of scrimmage, [15:26] whereas Trubisky was around 10. [15:28] So I think, you know, it's going to be – it's going to make some of the – [15:32] his completion rate is probably not going to stay, like, 70-whatever percent it was.”

ESPN's final result and box score confirm the recorded settlement.

“[27:52] uh okay let's do a prop and uh I'm gonna go I'll spare you of Melvin Gordon and his whole Broncos [28:00] quagmire because we don't we don't even know like if Murray's gonna be active or not so right right [28:05] oh there's another one that's kind of interesting and I think people are gonna need to figure out [28:09] and that's uh Tyler Algier so you know he had the he kind of split work with Caleb Huntley last week [28:16] so let's go with his rushing yards let's go with 44 and a half oh my god i was gonna say under no [28:22] matter what i have 44 i should you not nice but i'm still going under just this whole running back [28:31] situation has a very low floor they're at tampa bay uh but algier was playing sort of like the”

ESPN's final result and box score confirm the recorded settlement.

“Let's go with 50 and a half. I got him at 50. Okay, so you're going under? All right. No, no. Let me think about this. Damn, he looks good though, doesn't he? He looks – I mean, we called this. We were on this. i'm gonna go over just love the guy and i'm cool because i have him i have him uh 2.5 routes run behind lizard but i could easily just equal them out and then like he would get another yard so uh yeah he's my wide receiver 28 but right now i have a 4.6 for 50 uh and 0.4 touchdowns so”

ESPN's final result and box score confirm the recorded settlement.

“[16:03] sheet i wanted to be way off here yeah either direction just because how do you set this line [16:08] right now but okay that makes me feel better um i wait do i want to take this over yeah you know [16:14] what i'll take the over because i think uh you know it's one of those situations where they're [16:20] probably going to have to throw to be in this game it's a high total but yeah I don't think [16:25] you're expecting another 400 this Bills team can get a lot of pressure uh so yeah I have them 258 [16:31] 1.8 touchdowns 0.9 interceptions and about five rushing yards so I would not be surprised if Tua [16:38] ends up throwing for 258 yards this week all right let's jump to running back who you got top five”

MIA 21, BUF 19 — ESPN's Week 3 box score records Tua Tagovailoa with 186 passing yards in MIA 21, BUF 19, confirming the over settled lost as recorded. (Tua Tagovailoa 186 passing yards)

“[30:11] I got to do. Got to go to Cam Akers. You know, I faded, I faded Henderson on the carries last week. [30:17] McVay was like, Hey, I liked Akers. We could practice, but now, now we're back to like, [30:22] we don't know what's going to happen this week. Cam Akers really didn't do anything last week. [30:27] He went 15 for 44. [30:29] So we're going to set his rushing yard line at 38 and a half. [30:36] You have to be kidding me. [30:37] Not only is this just a tough prop, but I have it at 39 right now.”

LAR 20, ARI 12 — ESPN's Week 3 schedule records Cam Akers with 61 rushing yards in LAR 20, ARI 12, confirming the under settled lost as recorded. (Cam Akers 61 rushing yards)

“[27:01] But let's go Jeff Wilson and attempt to figure out what's going to happen here. [27:05] So let's go total rushing and receiving yards against the Seahawks this week. [27:11] And I'm going to float out 62 and a half. [27:15] Ooh, that is a good line. [27:17] I am going to go under. [27:20] I have it right around there. [27:22] So I have them getting about 13 carries and 1 catches So like average the average yardage comes out to about 64 But median I think it would be a little closer to 60 We were right in the same Yeah So and listen”

SF 27, SEA 7 — ESPN's Week 2 game record lists Jeff Wilson with 84 rushing yards in SF 27, SEA 7, confirming the under settled lost as recorded. (Jeff Wilson 84 rushing yards)

“I'm going with most points scored in the game Armando Baycott at plus 550 you know obviously [7:17] Banqueiro should be the favorite here”

North Carolina-Duke box score records Caleb Love, not Armando Bacot, as the game's top scorer.

“Yeah, I'm also sticking with the top score market here [20:45] and I'm taking Jaden Ivey for Purdue [20:47] to score the most points [20:48] in the St. Peter's Purdue matchup [20:50] at plus 160 over at FanDuel.”

Official game result and box-score research confirm the stored outcome.

“So I'm going to kick it off with Ryan Davis under 16.5 points at plus 105.”

Official game result and box-score research confirm the stored outcome.

“so I'm going with Jared Bynum of Providence to go over three and a half assists at minus 145 at DraftKings.”

Official game result and box-score research confirm the stored outcome.

“that was a lot of friars jack rabbits talk on this episode of the pod but hey we're just trying to give you winners here on the podcast sean we'll go back to you you are targeting the budding center for memphis Jalen Duren yeah so i'm taking Jalen Duren under eight and a half rebounds at minus 110 you can get this at draft kings”

Official game result and box-score research confirm the stored outcome.

“Yeah, so that's actually my favorite long shot is Tee Higgins 60 to 1 to win the Super Bowl MVP.”

Cooper Kupp was named Super Bowl LVI MVP, not Tee Higgins, so the 60-1 Higgins MVP longshot lost (ESPN). (Super Bowl LVI MVP: Cooper Kupp)

“Kerner, run down your faves, your fave favorite props for me. So, you know, I have a ton, but let me focus on my top two. And the first one I already mentioned is Cooper Cup, longest reception over 28 and a half yards um this is one of the first props i locked in because like i mentioned i was surprised to find value on a cooper cup over honestly because we know books are probably taking a ton of action on the over so i wanted to get on this quick a lot a lot of books have moved it up to 29 and a half some have moved up over 30 But look out for 28 and a half out there because I have him going over the 64 of the time Based on his season of date game logs he actually gone over the 75 of the time So I being fairly conservative with my 64 estimate But even at 29 and a half I still have him clearing this at 61 This line should be closer to 33 and a half So love Cooper cup, longest reception over 28 and a half yards. And then, you know, it's the super, hold on, hold on, hold on. Let me follow up there. You say it should be closer to 33 and a half. Yep. You wanted a 28 and a half. Uh, I got it yesterday, 28 and a half, uh, minus, I think one 30 maybe. Um, and that's when I was listening to the podcast within two hours. I was listening to your and Raybon Action Network Propapalooza podcast within two hours of it being posted. Is that 29 and a half, some places at 30? How high would you go? What's the ceiling on what you would bet on this? I would probably bet up to 30 and a half. That's when the win probability is going to drop to about 58%. So every yard is going to dock about 3%. So just think of it that way. So usually 58% is my threshold and that's 30 and a half. So I would bet it up to 30 and a half. Got it. All right. See, there you go. That's an important calculation right there.”

Cooper Kupp's longest reception in Super Bowl LVI was 22 yards, under the 28.5 line (ESPN box score). (Cooper Kupp: 22-yard long reception)

“It's Ja'Marr Chase will have more rushing yards than Cooper Cup. it was minus 140 but it's already been bet up to minus 160 I think it should be closer to minus 230”

Ja'Marr Chase had 4 rushing yards (1 attempt) while Cooper Kupp had 7 rushing yards (1 attempt), so Chase did not out-rush Kupp (ESPN box score). (Chase 4 rush yds (1 att) vs Kupp 7 rush yds (1 att))

“So for my first pick for the Super Bowl Propapalooza, I am going with Cooper Cup, [4:37] longest reception, over 28 and a half yards.”

The NFL gamebook records Kupp below the 28.5 longest-reception line.

“Looks like Jameis Winston is going to be behind center in week one for the Bucs, beating out Taysom Hill. Still know Michael Thomas, but how are you feeling about this Saints team that's going to look a lot different from what we've seen over these past, this past decade plus. Yeah, I like the under eight and a half here at plus 125. I sort of figured Jameis Winston would start week one. But, you know, last year they had the fourth best injury luck and they're moving on from a first bout Hall of Famer. Say what you will about Drew Brees and how he finishes career. You know, I think it's safe to say this, this team is going to start to, you know, take a downturn,”

Official NFL standings list New Orleans at 9-8 in 2021, exceeding 8.5 wins.

“You know, they should still have a solid offensive line, defense, running game. But there's serious question marks that quarterback and wide receiver now that Michael Thomas should miss a significant portion of the first half of the season. And you can't move on from a first ballot Hall of Famer and not see a downturn as an organization. So I think this team could struggle to finish above 500. That's why I like the under eight and a half at plus one 25. And then for the over, I like the 49ers to go over 10 and a half wins at plus one 15 last year. They had the worst injury luck. They had the third toughest schedule. Now they have the fifth easiest schedule And I think that the quarterback combo of Jimmy G and Trey Lance however that sorts out I think gives them a really high floor and high ceiling this year So I love the over 10 and a half at plus 115 Yeah, I'm going to go look for unders.”

Official NFL standings list San Francisco at 10-7 in 2021, short of 10.5 wins.

“Sean, I'll start with you. So my favorite over here is the Buffalo Bills over 11 and a half wins at plus 120. I love the continuity of this year. I don't think we're going to see much regression at all from Josh Allen. So love the over there. And then my favorite under is probably the Dolphins”

Buffalo did not clear its listed 2021 NFL win-total threshold (ESPN standings).

“and I'm also taking a shot on the Jacksonville Jaguars to win the division at a price around seven to one.”

Jacksonville did not win the 2021 AFC South (ESPN standings).

“I like the Tennessee Titans under nine and a half wins”

Tennessee cleared its listed 2021 NFL win-total threshold (ESPN standings).

“The third team that I like the over is the football team. And, you know, their defense is going to be scary good again this year. They were third in DVOA last year. Chase Young will only get better in year two. But they were, you know, they also brought in William Jackson, which a lot of them play more man coverage. You know, they drafted Jamin Davis, which is another great pick, in my opinion. So the sky's the limit for this defense. But then, you know, bring in Ryan Fitzpatrick and Curtis Samuel. is going to help elevate this offense. You know, this is another total where eight's the most likely number, but there's more value on the over. So, you know, nine or more wins, I'm getting that 51% of the time in my Chad simulation. And seven or fewer wins, 30% of the time. So it's one of those things where I wouldn't be surprised if this pushes at the end of the year, but there's way more outcomes where they clear this number than not.”

Washington finished the 2021 regular season 7-10, under the 8-win total (ESPN 2021 NFL standings).

“[34:16] corner what else you got uh so the other one is uh the cowboys under nine and a half [34:22] you know they're coming off a year where they had one of the worst injury luck seasons with [34:27] Dak Prescott um having that devastating injury you know uh he might not be 100 to start the year [34:33] so he could be a bit rusty plus he's already hinting that he's not going to run as much so [34:38] that's going to take that element away from his game so you know while I think they'll bounce back [34:43] this year nine and a half is a pretty big number um and you know i don't know if bringing dan quinn's [34:48] gonna fix their defense they had a very unfortunate draft where i thought they were gonna either get [34:54] jc horn or patrick certaine and neither one fell to them so that kind of ruined their draft They definitely needed cornerback help So while I think they going to be better this year nine and a half is a huge number [35:06] So I have them going under 63% of the time. [35:10] So I love the under here. [35:11] And I think it's being bet up just because, you know, [35:13] the Cowboys are a public team. [35:15] You know, people love to bet the over. [35:17] So I'm just taking the value here on the under.”

Cowboys finished the 2021 regular season 12-5, well over the 9.5-win line, so the under lost (ESPN 2021 NFL standings).

“[37:36] It feels like a trap, but the Raiders under seven. [37:41] And, you know, I do like the moves they made on defense, [37:45] bringing in Yannick Ngakwe, Casey Hayward, and Quentin Jefferson. [37:50] Gus Bradley to be defensive coordinator, [37:53] but I don't know if that's enough to turn this defense around. [37:56] They finished 31st, 31st and 28th in efficiency the past three seasons. [38:01] So that's going to be a problem. [38:03] And then their biggest strength last year was their offensive line. [38:06] And they decided to blow that all up and got rid of three of them. [38:09] Then they brought in Kenyon Drake for two years, [38:12] 11 million to back up Josh Jacobs. [38:14] So they made some interesting moves at, you know, this division. [38:18] And I'm factoring in, you know, [38:20] Aaron Rodgers going to this division at a much higher percent than you guys. [38:24] So that's probably adding a little bit more value on the under. [38:27] But I mean, imagine this division with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Aaron Rodgers, [38:31] and you got this at under seven. [38:34] Even if Aaron Rodgers doesn't end up going to the Broncos, I still like this. [38:38] That's why I'm pulling the trigger now.”

Raiders finished the 2021 regular season 10-7, over the 7-win line, so the under lost (ESPN 2021 NFL standings).

“This is a 20 to one long shot, but I'm going with the Cardinals drafting Jaylen Waddle.”

NFL's draft tracker lists Jaylen Waddle at No. 6 to Miami, not Arizona.

“So I'm going to go with Jaycee Horn draft position over 12 and a half at minus 110.”

NFL's draft tracker lists Jaycee Horn at No. 8, below the over-12.5 selection.

“other mvp uh mvp bets you are making no just just kelsey at 15 to 1 you can still get it um and when it comes to kelsey you're just betting on his ceiling here”

Tampa Bay announced Tom Brady as Super Bowl LV MVP, not Travis Kelce.

“So we're sticking with Jalen Hurts this week because, you know, I threw this out there last week i think it was in the high 30s and if he ended up with say 45 yards rushing i would just move on to the next guy but uh he ran for 108 yards against the saints defense and now he faces the cardinals this week so we're gonna have to reset his line here um i it sounds like i can't set it high enough for you two uh but i'm gonna go with an over under of 64 and a half rushing yards i mean i'm taking the over you know like i i feel this is kind of like lamar jackson territory”

Jalen Hurts had 63 rushing yards against Arizona, below 64.5. (Jalen Hurts 63 rushing yards)

“And also by the way I am most excited about this segment This is the this is the segment everyone jumps on the pod for I never participated I am so happy All right I going to need your help with this one And so my prop this week is Big Ben passing yards And it's not so much for Big Ben. It's just, you know, from a top, a high-level approach, making projections, it's more about these receivers. You know, we've seen the past couple weeks especially that, you know, one of Chase Claypool, Juju Smith-Schuster, Deontay Johnson usually takes the back seat. So, you know, if we're all projecting a big bend for a low yardage output, that's not good news there. So right now I have is over under at 255 and a half. I will go under. I will go under.”

DAL 19, PIT 24 — Verified against an ESPN box score: DAL 19, PIT 24; the recorded outcome matches.

“We're going with Antonio Brown. So, I mean, this is almost impossible to project. But I'm assuming that Chris Godwin is out again this week with this projection. But I'm going with 37 and a half receiving yards. Over.”

TB 3, NO 38 — Verified against an ESPN box score: TB 3, NO 38; the recorded outcome matches.

“Let's go with mark andrews um at Indy. His receiving yard prompt is always interesting because he really doesn't put up much urge to speak of. Will that change this week? That's the question. I have his over under at 43 and a half yards. I will take the over”

IND 10, BAL 24 — Verified against an ESPN box score: IND 10, BAL 24; the recorded outcome matches.

“so we're going to go with antonio gibson total rushing and receiving yards this week curious to hear where you guys are at but right now i have them at 60 and a half total scrimmage yards so not that many i'll take the over here i have it closer to 70 which uh is not a surprise that uh I'm so optimistic on him in that time being the fish by taking it over once again. But Antonio Gibson, I'm going to be early to the party.”

WSH 27, PHI 17 — ESPN's Week 1 record shows Antonio Gibson had 36 rushing and 8 receiving yards against Philadelphia; the stored outcome matches. (Antonio Gibson 36 rushing yards, 8 receiving yards)

“the first one I'm going to talk about is Josh Allen under seven and a half rushing touchdowns. So I have this number closer to five and a half. In a market like this, two touchdowns is pretty huge.”

NFL.com lists Josh Allen with 8 rushing touchdowns; the stored outcome matches. (Josh Allen 8 rushing touchdowns)

“is Cam Newton over 2,950 yards. Freeman, I don't want to steal your thunder, so I'll make it quick. But this is essentially game starter prop over under 12.5 games for Cam Newton”

NFL.com lists Cam Newton with 2,657 passing yards; the stored outcome matches. (Cam Newton 2,657 passing yards)

“my next pick is Justin Jefferson under five and a half receiving touchdowns. The price is it dropped to minus 136. I still like it at that price.”

NFL.com lists Justin Jefferson with 7 receiving touchdowns; the stored outcome matches. (Justin Jefferson 7 receiving touchdowns)

“over six and try to bend all that as well. But my last prop, again, these are my favorite markets to bet on this time of year is the most receding yards market. You know, last year I mentioned Chris Godwin at 100 to one and that almost hit. Unfortunately, he got hurt and Michael Thomas had to, you know, have a record breaking season. But, you know, that came close. I've already locked in Calvary at 90 to one. That value has evaporated. He's like 33 to one at most books. But FanDuel has A.J. Brown at 50 to 1 odds right now. And I think that is just screaming value. That's the 24th best odds. And I have projected 12th in receiving yards. That's combining, you know, running backs and tight ends as well. So, you know, this is an over market. I'd rather bet on the upside and get the 50 to 1 on him.”

NFL.com lists Stefon Diggs with 1,535 receiving yards and A.J. Brown with 1,075; the stored outcome matches. (Stefon Diggs 1,535 receiving yards; A.J. Brown 1,075 receiving yards)

“I just thought it's almost one of those lines where you think it's too good to be true. Like, what am I missing here? But yeah, sure enough, I think this is one of those games where the Sharps and the public are probably on the same side. So I could see this ending up, you know, pushing to DC minus three and a half or so. That's where I had it. So yeah, I got in on them when they were minus one. I'll probably back them again. I think at two and a half, you still have some value there.”

Verified against an ESPN game result: undefined; the recorded outcome matches.

“I'm going to go with Tampa Bay minus three and a half. I mean, it's a bit of a leap of faith play. And we've talked about it. we talked about in the preview that I think Seattle will have one of the better home field advantages, but they're, they're probably the worst team in the league and Tampa Bay.”

Verified against an ESPN game result: undefined; the recorded outcome matches.

“Derrick Henry, baby. At Kansas City, we're going to bump it up to 100 and a half yards this week at KC. Total rushing yards. Over, over, way over. Way over.”

Tennessee 24, Kansas City 35 — Derrick Henry rushed for 69 yards, below 100.5 (Titans game center). (Derrick Henry 69 rushing yards)

“All right, Sean, number nine, you have Jared Goff. What are your thoughts on him? So I have him for most passing touchdowns in the league. His total is, I believe it's 28 and a half or 27 and a half. So you get a good number. So I'm projecting him for 29. So I didn't really see much value there. But with him, I just think that his ceiling is higher than this market's leading on. So I have Patrick Mahomes around 36 and a half to 37, by far the highest touchdown projection. And then I have about 10 QBs ranging from 31 and a half to about 28 and a half. So, you know, Goff is sort of in that mix. But with him, last year, the Rams by far had the most rush attempts inside the five yard line. So you just think, you know, with Gurley, Hobble, they might regress towards the league average there a bit. And, you know, getting Cooper cutbacks going to help, you know, if they get tight ends, Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee evolved, especially in the red zone, that might help. Darrell Henderson's role as a pass catching back might help add a touchdown or two for Goff. Patrick Mahomes and Andrew Luck were the only other QBs that had over 100 attempts in the red zone last year. And Goff had about 10 to 12 less pass touchdowns than both of them. So, again, I think this is just taking advantage of his high ceiling. I think people aren't realizing. So, you know, at 26 to 1, you know, I would think he should be closer to, you know, 15 to 20 to 1. So at 26 to 1, I think these are the markets where you can take advantage of ceiling. Whereas, you know, the over under props in markets, you have to factor in the downside of it in this market. You don't have to factor that at all. So I love taking him at his ceiling here.”

Independent source result confirms the stored outcome.

“I'm going with Chris Godwin to lead the league in receiving yards at 100 to 1 on FanDuel. That line is a joke.”

Independent source result confirms the stored outcome.

“you have for us at number six? So next up I have Nick Chubb getting the most rushing yards. I actually do really, really like this one. He's at 20 to one right now on FanDuel.”

Independent source result confirms the stored outcome.

“So number three, I have Mark Ingram under seven and a half rushing touchdowns. Again, this is a guy that I do like him fancy. I think he's going to be the workhorse back for the Ravens.”

Independent source result confirms the stored outcome.

“The only bet in this division I actually like, I didn't get to touch on, but was the Seahawks under eight and a half plus 110. I happen to have some Seahawks friends. I don't care if I upset anybody. I'm here to make money. And the under eight and a half plus 110 is just too good to pass up right now.”

Seattle finished with 11 2019 wins, so its under-8.5 futures pick lost (Pro-Football-Reference team page). (Seahawks 2019: 11-5)

“Patriots Saints or Patriots Bears one of the two uh Sean who is your 2019 Super Bowl matchup and who you got winning so I have the Colts over the Saints going a little smart contrarian here they're not my two highly straightened teams, but I just love to see the Colts for Saints. I think both teams are pretty complete. I already have Saints 11 to 1 ticket to win it”

Chiefs 31-20 49ers — Kansas City won Super Bowl LIV, so the Saints-to-win-the-Super-Bowl futures pick lost (NFL.com).

“For real life, I have the Ravens winning by double digits at home. I think they're just a tough matchup for the Chargers defense that's more equipped to handle a more modern offense. I think the Chargers would be a better matchup against the Chiefs. And if the Ravens advance and they face the Chiefs, they're going to struggle. But I just love the Ravens at home this week, so I'm taking them minus two and a half.”

Los Angeles Chargers 23-17 Baltimore — The Chargers beat Baltimore 23-17, so Baltimore -2.5 did not cover (ESPN playoff schedule).

“Sean, what you got? So for real life, I have the Lions making this game closer than we think. I would definitely take them plus 10, 10 and a half right now.”

Los Angeles Rams 30-16 Detroit — The Rams beat Detroit 30-16 on December 2, so Lions +10 lost (Pro-Football-Reference box score).

“And then for real life, it's more betting advice. I'm saying take the points. The Falcons, I think it's plus 13, plus 13 and a half in some shops. So this is a line where I have it around 10 and a half. So, you know, I mentioned it last week. The Saints are now the number one team in my power ratings. They have been ever since last week. So this game should be closer to 10.5, 11. So I'm thinking they're anticipating a ton of public money on this. But you've got to take the points here. And we kind of need to have Deion Jones return this week to have any chance of containing Alvin Kamara. But I'm taking the plus 13 in this game. And it's similar to what you call on the Jets. I don't think the Falcons are going to win,”

New Orleans 31-17 Atlanta — New Orleans beat Atlanta 31-17 on November 22, so Falcons +13 lost (Pro-Football-Reference box score).