Guest · 12-9-1 on settled picks
“Yeah, I don't love anything. I mean, I favor the 49ers against the Saints. I favor the Chiefs against the Patriots. But I think as far as a play that I feel really strongly about that nobody cares about is probably the Falcons against the Panthers, minus two and a half.”
ATL 40, CAR 20 — Falcons beat Panthers 40-20; Atlanta margin +20 vs line -2.5 covers (ESPN Week 14 scoreboard).
“Not bad. I'm going to go with another four-point favorite. I am going to go with the Falcons over the Buccaneers.”
ATL 22, TB 35 — Buccaneers beat Falcons 35-22; Atlanta margin -13 vs line -4 busts (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“Denver Broncos on the road, 10.5-point underdogs against the living large new man with the Minnesota Vikings, Kirk Cousins playing lights out, going on the road at Dallas, comeback win looking fantastic playing like we all know he can loving every minute of it i'm not taking the vikings here that's a big number it's a it's a huge number and uh we have been kind of sneakily high on on denver most of the year some games to our detriment uh some games not but uh you know we have them rated a little higher than uh kind of the public perception of them has been and uh but this game is about as high as we can make a line i i i think there's a lot of value on denver uh but uh boy we seen us how many double digit favorites have we seen this year I I you should look into that and see if it a if it a record It has been amazing. Right. But more importantly, and I will check that. That's a great question. I'm going to ask somebody that. Um, I'd also like to know double, like underdogs this year are winning. It's something like, there's something like 84. Like if I'm 82 and whatever I am, underdogs have won four more games than that. Yeah. Underdogs are winning at a 60% clip this year. 60%. And it's reflective of our NFL season to date right now. The sportsbooks are doing really well. Knock on wood, we haven't had one of those real devastating weekends that typically we do by this time of year. The end of October, the beginning of November, especially when you have like six teams of them every week. Anytime you have a real short schedule. All those high-profile teams like the Patriots and the Saints, it gets more concentrated, so you have less margin for error as a sportsbook. So you have two or three really big games that determine your weekend. You either win big or you lose big. And so far, we've won big. And so, I mean, we're having a pretty good year, and usually when a lot of underdogs win, that's the case. Denver will be the side there.”
MIN 27, DEN 23 — Vikings beat Broncos 27-23; Denver lost by only 4, covering +10.5 (ESPN box score).
“i'll i'll take the redskins minus [36:29] minus one against the jets actually i'm at one and a half now so i gotta lay the bad number”
WSH 17, NYJ 34 — Jets beat Washington 34-17; Washington lost outright by 17, missing the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Scooch, you won last week. You had Houston. I won last week. I had Carolina. I am a gracious host. I am going to let you go first because there are so many freaking games that I love. There are. Me too. Because I like Cleveland, I like Jacksonville, and I even like the Bengals. But if there's one I'd probably like more than the other, it's probably Jacksonville. Yeah, I do love that game. I love that game. You're taking Jacksonville. Minus one and a half over the New Orleans Saints.”
JAX 6, NO 13 — Saints beat Jaguars 13-6 (Jaguars margin -7), busting the -1.5 spread (ESPN Week 6 scoreboard).
“Okay, I'm going to go with Houston, Texas again. They burned me last week but I going with them against the Falcons the minus four and a half”
HOU 53, ATL 32 — Texans beat Falcons 53-32 (margin +21), covering -4.5 (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“I'm going to take seven points with the Lions.”
Lions 27, Eagles 24 — The Lions beat the Eagles 27-24, covering Detroit +7 (ESPN box score).
“but I think Cincinnati is the right play, minus one at home.”
49ers 41, Bengals 17 — The 49ers beat the Bengals 41-17, well outside the Cincinnati -1 line (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to go with the Minnesota Vikings, minus the four.”
Vikings 28, Falcons 12 — The Vikings beat the Falcons 28-12, covering Minnesota -4 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to I'm going to I like the Cowboys. [43:09] I think seven points is a lot against the Rams. [43:12] I think the Cowboys defense are stepping up. [43:15] They're going to shut the Rams offense down.”
LAR 30-22 — Los Angeles Rams beat Dallas Cowboys 30-22 in the NFC Divisional Round, a margin of -8, missing the +7 spread (ESPN box score).
“But I do think those sharp guys are right on the Eagles. [40:29] And I know you like the Texans, but I think the Eagles with that only laying one and a half, the way they're playing, that's the one I'd go with.”
PHI 32, HOU 30 — Eagles beat Texans 32-30; Philadelphia -1.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I would take the Raiders plus the 11.”
OAK 24, PIT 21 — Oakland Raiders beat Pittsburgh Steelers 24-21 outright, easily covering the +11 spread (ESPN box score).
“Tennessee Titans plus four. [48:45] I mean minus four.”
TEN 30, JAX 9 — Tennessee Titans beat Jacksonville Jaguars 30-9, covering the -4 spread (ESPN box score).
“Tennessee Titans plus four. I mean minus four. I do like the Panthers too but not at minus two and a half maybe no I'm just kidding I'll take a little side action with you on the Panthers and the Browns I'll take the Browns in that game okay Browns win that game Browns win that game Browns win that game and on the next episode”
CLE 26, CAR 20 — Cleveland Browns beat Carolina Panthers 26-20, so the Browns-to-win side bet won (ESPN box score).
“I'm back in sync. Tell me what you got. I don't like it, but I have to take Atlanta. Ah, you mother. You have to. It's 13 and a half points. I know. you leave me literally with nothing.”
NO 31, ATL 17 — Saints beat Falcons 31-17 on Thanksgiving; Atlanta margin -14 fails the +13.5 line (ESPN final).
“I'm going to take the Steelers. [52:29] Yeah? [52:30] Yeah. [52:32] Minus three.”
DEN 24, PIT 17 — Broncos beat Steelers 24-17; Pittsburgh margin -7 fails the -3 line (ESPN final).
“i going with the jacksonville jaguars at plus three yeah i don know why Wow I heard some snickering back there What happened? What was that? You didn't hear anything. No? Okay. You didn't hear anything. It's just people like my family that have nothing but the utmost respect for me. Okay. I got you. Who are you taking? I'm going to take the Buccaneers. I want to change my pick to the Buccaneers. I was thinking Northern Florida. I got confused about the logos and stuff. I want the Buccaneers. Oh, okay. No, I want the Jacks. I'll take the Jacks. All right. The Jets? Jags. Jags.”
IND 29, JAX 26 — Colts beat Jaguars 29-26, a 3-point margin that exactly matches Jaguars +3, so this pick pushes (ESPN box score).
“I love the Patriots. Oh, no. Oh, no, you didn't. Oh, no, you didn't. Was I not supposed to go first? damn you Bob yeah three and a half probably not the best number to lay but I don't think it'll matter this is so far the most important game for the Patriots this year and they want to make a statement”
NE 43, KC 40 — Patriots beat Chiefs 43-40, winning by only 3; New England margin +3 vs -3.5 line busts (ESPN box score).
“So if that's the case, then I'm going to go ahead and take Buffalo. Plus three and a half against Tennessee.”
BUF 13, TEN 12 — Bills beat Titans 13-12 on a walk-off field goal; Buffalo margin +1 vs +3.5 line covers (ESPN box score).
“No one's going to like this one, but the Steelers. Don't do it. Against the bucket. Oh! Wow! Yeah. Wow. Steelers over the Bucs. The Steelers. If I'm saying I made them like three and a half and was going to make them even higher, how can I not lay one?”
30-27 — Steelers beat Buccaneers 30-27 (played Monday Sept 24, 2018); Pittsburgh -1 wins outright and covers (ESPN box score).
“But it's a little inflated, and I think the Colts plus the 5.5 is the play here.”
IND 21, WSH 9 — Colts beat Redskins 21-9 outright; Colts margin +12 covers +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“Panthers plus six against the Falcons.”
ATL 31, CAR 24 — Falcons beat Panthers 31-24; Panthers lost by 7, failing to cover +6 (ESPN game page).