Guest · 46-45-1 on settled picks
| League | prop | futures | total | spread | other | moneyline | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 22-19+3% | 6-10-10% | 7-3+34% | 2-6-52% | 4-2+27% | 0-1 | 41-41-1% |
| Other | — | 3-2+38% | 1-1 | 1-1 | — | — | 5-4+19% |
“Jalen Hurts, anytime touchdown, minus 110. Again, I think this should be closer to minus 160, minus 165.”
The NFL gamebook records Jalen Hurts' rushing touchdown in the Eagles' 40-22 win. (Jalen Hurts: 1 rushing TD)
“kareem hunt under 44 and a half [17:49] rushing yards this is now minus 114 at draft kings i have this projected at 40”
The NFL gamebook records Kareem Hunt with 9 rushing yards, under 44.5. (Kareem Hunt: 9 rushing yards)
“I'm looking at Patrick Mahomes under 29 and a half rushing yards. [27:46] This is minus 107 at DraftKings.”
The NFL gamebook records Patrick Mahomes with 25 rushing yards, under 29.5. (Patrick Mahomes: 25 rushing yards)
“is where I have this projected. Wow. You know, 8 and a half is is the total there. So this is one of the few win totals that I don't mind betting the over on. I think normally win totals, that's where I wanna be taking unders. And if I like a team, I wanna be betting on them to win the Super Bowl, win division, things like that. But there's such a large discrepancy”
Chargers finished the 2024 regular season 11-6 (ESPN standings), clearing 8.5 wins; the over won. (Chargers 2024: 11-6)
“And I'm looking at Patrick Mahomes. Under 21 and a half fantasy points is something that is out there. And in the Fantasy Life bet tracker, I put this in there at minus 110. I still see it at minus 140 around the market. I still think it is bettable at that number.”
ESPN's box score supports Mahomes finishing above the stated fantasy-point under, so the prop lost as stored.
“longest air yards from a single reception mvs at plus 980”
ESPN's receiving table does not show Valdes-Scantling with the longest air-yards reception, so the prop lost as stored.
“I'm going with Eli Mitchell under one and a half carries.”
ESPN's box score credits Mitchell with two carries, so the under-one-and-a-half prop lost as stored.
“And I also have Purdy throwing an interception at minus 115 odds.”
ESPN's box score records no Purdy interception, so the over-interceptions prop lost as stored.
“So over one and a half field goals for Harrison Bucker.”
ESPN's box score credits Butker with four field goals, so the over won as stored.
“and this sort of goes against what I just said, is that Brock Purdy like, one of the most intriguing bets to me that I've made this offseason was Brock Purdy 75 to one to win MVP. Because it's basically the same thesis”
Lamar Jackson won the 2023 NFL AP MVP award; Brock Purdy did not win.
“So, you know, I actually like the value on that. You know, you're not going to throw a whole, you know, you're not going to bet the house on it, but I think those are pretty good odds compared to Quanu, who's at plus 350 for that number three pick with a bunch of other guys mixed in. I like that. 10 to one Evan Ilf. I would bet that. In fact, when we're done with this, I'm going to go bet it.”
NFL’s official 2022 Draft tracker confirm Evan Neal to #3 pick settled lost as recorded.
“Any thoughts on Willis to the Steelers at plus 300? You know, is that kind of maybe 25%? Is that kind of where you peg it? Or do you think it's a little bit higher than that? If Willis is three to one, yes, I am betting that.”
NFL’s official 2022 Draft tracker confirm Malik Willis to Steelers settled lost as recorded.
“It does get confusing. Yeah. I would be looking at some of the overs for those guys. So Jahan Dotson is someone like, I think he's on that round one, round two borderline. And I was able to get him earlier at 32 and a half at plus odds on the over. So someone, one of these wide receivers is going to go in round one. but I think it's hard to say exactly which one it is and if you can find reasonable numbers on some of those guys I would be looking at overs”
NFL’s official 2022 Draft tracker confirm Jahan Dotson over 32.5 draft position settled lost as recorded.
“Linderbaum, great player, but he might fall out of round one. And I think there's a very, very good chance he hits the over on 27 and a half.”
NFL’s official 2022 Draft tracker confirm Tyler Linderbaum over 27.5 draft position settled lost as recorded.
“A bet that I really do like is under 0.5 running backs in round one. And you know, [36:46] the number that I first grabbed on that, I think was minus one 70. I think you can still get that [36:52] around minus 200”
NFL’s official 2022 Draft tracker confirm Under 0.5 RBs in round 1 settled won as recorded.
“there's a lot of value at that minus 200 number, as you mentioned. And then even just reading tea leaves of the market, looking at the Bills odds for first position drafted, it's defensive back first at plus 150 and running back at plus 350. So if the Bills aren't doing it, I really don't see another team that's a serious threat just based on team needs and just kind of rank you know big board rankings of where this running back would come from yeah look you said plus 150 for defensive back yes uh i i think there's great value on that i would bet that i would bet that because uh what you see in over half of the drafts out there the sharp uh mocks out there going cornerback and then safety on top of that is also added in and you see them going safety in like 16% of the sharp mocks out there. So I think there's pretty good value there. I would bet that plus 150.”
NFL’s official 2022 Draft tracker confirm Bills first pick a defensive back settled won as recorded.
“Yeah, so I've recently published a five best bets. One of them, Tyler Linderbaum, over 27 and a half. I mentioned that. Kenny Pickett, the number that I bet was 12 and a half. I think you said it moved up to 16 and a half. Doesn't matter. Still, I would still bet it at 16 and a half. Three of the other bets that I really do like. Skyy Moore, one of the wide receivers I mentioned earlier, I would bet over 35 and a half. And this number was at DraftKings. I love Moore. He's a really intriguing player, but his expected draft position at grinding the mocks is 46.2.”
NFL’s official 2022 Draft tracker confirm Skyy Moore over 35.5 draft position settled won as recorded.
“another wide receiver I looking at John Mechie over 56 and a half this at Steezers at plus 110”
NFL’s official 2022 Draft tracker confirm John Metchie III over 56.5 draft position settled lost as recorded.
“Quay Walker over 38 and a half off ball linebacker. It's just not a priority for most teams picking in the top eight of round two.”
NFL’s official 2022 Draft tracker confirm Quay Walker over 38.5 draft position settled lost as recorded.
“made two bets pretty quickly on uh the quarterback who would be the number one quarterback i believe we talked about that on the show i was with you guys previously, Malik Willis plus 200 and Kenny Pickett plus 175.”
Kenny Pickett was the first quarterback drafted, at pick 20, in the 2022 NFL Draft; Malik Willis was not first.
“until the draft this year is very different i i made two bets pretty quickly on uh the quarterback who would be the number one quarterback i believe we talked about that on the show i was with you guys previously, Malik Willis plus 200 and Kenny Pickett plus 175. But those were the only bets that I had sitting out there for about a month.”
Kenny Pickett (Steelers) was the first quarterback selected, at pick 20, in the 2022 NFL Draft.
“And so I'm going to take the under two and a half quarterbacks. If we see a quarterback go in round one or in the top 10, it's only one. And if I had to bet right now, I would bet no.”
Only one quarterback, Kenny Pickett, was selected in round 1 of the 2022 NFL Draft — the under 2.5 cashed.
“Best bets. All right. I will say Evan Neal versus Akem Aquanu. That is a great matchup in terms of who's going to be the top offensive lineman taken in the draft. If you look across the market, Aquanu is favored and I get it. He's the sexier player on film. You just see him pancaking multiple dudes when he's out run blocking. But Evan Neal is the more polished prospect. He has more versatility. He's played right tackle, left tackle. He's played interior as a guard. I think he should be favored. He's favored in the sharp mock drafts. He's favored by a number of other factors that I look at. And across the market, anywhere from plus 130 to plus 150 is a number that you can find. I am betting on Evan Neal to be the top offensive lineman taken in this class.”
Ikem Ekwonu (Panthers) was the first offensive lineman drafted, at pick 6, in the 2022 NFL Draft; Evan Neal went 7th to the Giants.
“Friedman, number one overall pick, first QB taken. So on first quarterback taken, I already have positions, Malik Willis at plus 200 and Kenny Pickett plus 175. At FanDuel, those lines are now Malik Willis, I believe, plus 150 and Kenny Pickett plus 120. So shout out me on getting that sweet, sweet closing line value.”
Kenny Pickett was the first quarterback selected in the 2022 NFL Draft (No. 20 overall, Steelers); Malik Willis went in the third round (No. 86, Titans), so the Willis first-QB bet lost.
“Friedman, number one overall pick, first QB taken. So on first quarterback taken, I already have positions, Malik Willis at plus 200 and Kenny Pickett plus 175. At FanDuel, those lines are now Malik Willis, I believe, plus 150 and Kenny Pickett plus 120. So shout out me on getting that sweet, sweet closing line value.”
Kenny Pickett was the first quarterback drafted in the 2022 NFL Draft, taken No. 20 overall by the Pittsburgh Steelers, so the futures bet cashed.
“And I actually did take Taysom Hill at a higher number than this. I think I got it around 280, but I think the Taysom Hill, Jameis Winston situation is much closer to 50-50 than people think.”
38-3 — Jameis Winston, not Taysom Hill, started Week 1 for the Saints, a 38-3 win over Green Bay played in Jacksonville on Sept 12, 2021, so the +280 Taysom Hill starter prop lost.
“And the exact same thing with Garoppolo and Lance. So easily I'm on the side of plus 240 with Lance, plus 220 with Taysom Hill.”
41-33 — Jimmy Garoppolo, not Trey Lance, started Week 1 for the 49ers, a 41-33 win at Detroit on Sept 12, 2021, so the +240 Trey Lance starter prop lost.
“All right. I've got a few. Some of them aren't very sexy, I'll just say. So two of them aren't sexy. One of them I think is a little sexier. One of the ones that isn't sexy, Trevon Morig as the number one safety off the board. You have to pay around minus 400, minus 500 juice on this. So that's a lot. That said, I think he's a lock to be the number one safety. He's going routinely in mock drafts and on big boards you look at. He's going in the 20s and 30s. The two guys who could maybe challenge him, Richie Grant and Javon Holland, they're going routinely in the 40s and 50s. Like the, you have Jamar chase in this class and the edge that he has over other wide receivers. Like, I think that's the edge that Trevon Morick has over these other safeties. This line should be minus a thousand. So to be able to get it at minus 400, you know, you're still laying a lot of juice, but I think there's a lot of value there. He's like 90% or greater to be the number one safety in this class.”
Trevon Moehrig went 43rd overall (Raiders), after Jevon Holland (36th, Dolphins) and Richie Grant (40th, Falcons), so Moehrig was not the first safety drafted and the bet lost.
“Another one, again, it's not sexy. You have to put a lot of juice on it, but under five and a half quarterbacks, like, come on, there are going to be five in this class, but there will not be a sixth. There absolutely will not be a sixth quarterback going in round one. It just will not happen. It's happened once in NFL history. And I bet Jim could say when it was. It was the fantastic 1983 all-time great quarterback class where you had multiple Hall of Famers, Elway, Marino, Jim Kelly, right? This is not that class. There are five guys in it. They're going in round one. But let me put it this way. It's likelier that there are four guys in round one and one of them slips all the way out than that there will be a sixth guy that goes in the first round. There just is not a number six quarterback in this class who is getting anything close to the kind of hype that you see a guy have before he goes into round one I think this is like a 1 chance And even that feels high of a six quarterback going in round one So you bet this at minus 400 minus 500, bet it to minus 2000.”
Five quarterbacks (Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, Jones) were drafted in Round 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft, under the 5.5 line, so the bet won.
“And then the sexier one, the one at plus money. If you look at Washington, they have a couple of pretty big needs. They could go with a tackle. They could go with a wide receiver. And on defense, they could go with a linebacker in the first round. Now, out of the sharp mocks I look at, in over half of them, they're going with a linebacker. But right now, you can bet a plus 200 for them to go with a defensive player. And I think a lot of the books are just thinking that this is an offensive tackle spot right here. But this class, there's not much of a difference between the number four offensive tackle and the number seven offensive tackle. So Washington could easily wait till the second round to get an offensive tackle and off ball linebacker and number 19 like that is the wheelhouse for like three linebackers who could go there. And that could be someone who immediately steps in and is a starter on day one for their defense. So at plus 200, this should be a coin flip. And if you want to be even a little bit bolder, you could specifically bet a plus 300 for them to take a linebacker. And so whether you go plus 200, plus 300, either one of those, I think there's value there. This should be a coin flip and you're getting great plus money. Thank God you gave us something that actually didn't cost us $1,000 to make a bet.”
Washington used its Round 1 pick (No. 19) on LB Jamin Davis, a defensive player, so the bet won.
“Mac Jones train I'm very much on the Mac Jones train and so if Mac Jones goes number three it doesn't matter if I lose all of my other bets, like that will be pretty much what makes the, the weekend for me. So I'm hoping that that happens.”
Mac Jones was drafted 15th overall by New England, not No. 3 (Trey Lance went 3rd), so the bet lost.
“One of my favorites, and this one's kind of obscure, under two and a half Pac-12 players in round one. It is plus 100 in some books. This number should be minus 400, minus 500.”
NFL's draft tracker lists Oregon's Penei Sewell, USC's Alijah Vera-Tucker, and Washington's Joe Tryon in Round 1, so under 2.5 Pac-12 players lost.
“One of my favorite props. I got to say, this is similar to Rayvon's, you know, under one and a half tight ends. You know, not sexy. I'm going Trayvon Morig as the number one safety in the draft. It's minus 400 at bet MGM. So again, it's not sexy to lay this much juice. But this line should be minus 900, minus 1,000.”
NFL's draft material lists Trevon Moehrig as a 2021 second-round selection, so he was not the first safety selected.
“I'm going against you. I think it's Kyle Pitts. That's one of my favorite bets. Kyle Pitts to the Falcons plus 160 at bet MGM. And even if they go with pits instead of Ja'Marr Chase, I still think at this point they have the best group of pass catchers.”
NFL's draft tracker lists Kyle Pitts at No. 4 to Atlanta.
“My favorite bet for the NFL draft, and this one is pretty random. The Washington football team to draft defense with the first pick. And you can get this at bet MGM at plus 210. I think this should be plus 100, maybe minus 120.”
NFL reports Washington selected linebacker Jamin Davis at No. 19, making its first pick defensive.
“One of my favorites for the draft is again, it's unsexy, but under five and a half quarterbacks in round one, You can find this at bet MGM at minus 450 in the way that Raybon would say this. I would bet this to any juice. I would bet this to the moon.”
NFL's first-round tracker lists five quarterbacks, so under 5.5 won.
“So I have an index of mock drafts, you know, mock drafts that I think are predictive by experts who have been accurate over a number of years. And so I use this index, you know, to help me in my sort of quote unquote handicapping. This index, I think, is really good at helping me order the prospects and helping me come up with over-unders. It not quite as good at helping me sort of nail exactly like a running back is going to go to this team in round one or even like an offensive player is going to go to this team in round one But some of those types of bets are the ones that offer higher upside right Because you find plus money And so those are some of the ones that people like to bet. And I have found a couple in that area that I do think are profitable. So one prop that is out there in this vein that looks really good is defense to Washington with their first pick in the draft. And, you know, I got this at plus 450. I think it's bettable down, honestly, to like even money. And literally half of the drafts that I've seen, Washington has been going with a defensive player, linebacker to be specific. And, you know, you look at defense, sorry, you look at Washington and you can see, obviously, they need an offensive tackle. They need a wide receiver. That doesn't mean they're going to go with those positions in round one. I think, you know, in a lot of these, especially in the second half of the first round, whether they go offense or defense, in a lot of cases, it's close to a coin flip. And so to be able to get this, even now I'm looking at it, you can get it around plus 300 at some books. I think there's a significant amount of value”
NFL reports Washington selected linebacker Jamin Davis at No. 19, making its first pick defensive.
“Yeah, a few thoughts on Mahomes here. So one, I am taking the under on 19 and a half yards rushing because we have seen him with the toe injury seemingly be just a little less willing to. to take off, I believe, last week or two weeks ago, rather, in the championship game, conference championship, he had five yards. And then the week before that in the divisional round, I think he had 14 yards rushing. So I think we will just see Mahomes a little less desirous to take off running and staying in the pocket a little bit more. So going under 19 and a half yards rushing.”
The Buccaneers' official box score lists Patrick Mahomes with 33 rushing yards, over 19.5 rather than under. (Patrick Mahomes 33 rushing yards)
“I'm going under Mike Evans 63 and a half yards receiving under Chris Godwin 77 and a half yards receiving”
The Buccaneers' official box score lists Mike Evans with 31 receiving yards, under 63.5. (Mike Evans 31 receiving yards)
“I'm going under Mike Evans 63 and a half yards receiving under Chris Godwin 77 and a half yards receiving”
The Buccaneers' official box score lists Chris Godwin with 9 receiving yards, under 77.5. (Chris Godwin 9 receiving yards)
“I'm with you on Ronald Jones. I have over eight and a half carries.”
The Buccaneers' official box score lists Ronald Jones with 12 rushes, over 8.5. (Ronald Jones 12 rush attempts)
“All right, Sean, I believe that we are kind of on opposite sides here of Tyree kill donkey that I am. I am going over 91 and a half yards receiving. I see that you are going under six and a half receptions. Now in theory, they both could hit, but you know, that's, that's not incredibly likely. Make the case for Tyreek Hill under six and a half receptions. And then I will make the case for Tyreek Hill while I'm going over 91 and a half receiving yards.”
The Buccaneers' official box score lists Tyreek Hill with 73 receiving yards, under 91.5. (Tyreek Hill 73 receiving yards)
“And there nothing to suggest that the Buccaneers have the ability to stop him I believe that they are ranked number 27 in past DVOA against tight ends And Kelsey usage especially since I believe week eight has just been absolutely ridiculous. He has since then 10 targets, a minimum of 10 targets in every game, but one, uh, eight receptions in every game, but one, and he's like a hundred yard factory where just, it feels like almost every week he's just hitting that threshold. If not hitting it coming pretty close. So I'm going over Kelsey, seven and a half receptions over 94 and a half yards receiving.”
The Buccaneers' official box score lists Travis Kelce with 10 receptions, over 7.5. (Travis Kelce 10 receptions)
“it's not tasem hill it's uh deshaun watson his passing yards this week against the colts without will fuller without randall cobb without kenny stills what are we doing with him i have his over under set at 272 and a half. This is one of the rare instances in which I will be taking an under on you, Sean, but it's pretty close. I have it at 268 and a half.”
Deshaun Watson passed for 341 yards against Indianapolis, so under 272.5 lost. (341 passing yards)
“Okay, Sean, give us the player prop. We're going to go with Austin Eckler's receding yards. and you know the thing about this game was he was supposed to be limited so of course he gets 14 carries and 11 catches so it makes it a bit tricky projecting what he'll have in a full role this week potentially but um right now i have his projection at well let me set the line for you guys i'm gonna have to maybe make a little bit higher but you're mainly adjusting it up well yeah i did so early in the week how can you have a projection for this yet but um i'm gonna set the line at uh 46 and a half for seven yards can i ask you a question yeah how much did you inflate it by relative to your project uh just just a few yards yeah uh i will still go over uh i will be the uh the eclair optimist here and i will i will go over”
Austin Ekeler had 32 receiving yards against New England, so over 46.5 lost. (32 receiving yards)
“All right, Sean, give us the tight end prop. Well, you hit on earlier, but it's Evan Engram receiving yards. I was curious to hear where you guys haven't projected with Colt McCoy. I agree that it might not matter who's that quarterback. He might actually target him more than, you know, going to Darius Slayton down the field. So right now I have his projection at 45 and a half. All right. Well, I feel like I've tipped my hand here, so I will have to go over. I have it. You, Sean, you said 45 and a half. Yeah. 45 and a half.”
Evan Engram had 32 receiving yards against Seattle, so over 45.5 lost. (32 receiving yards)
“so we're going to go with antonio gibson total rushing and receiving yards this week curious to hear where you guys are at but right now i have them at 60 and a half total scrimmage yards so not that many i'll take the over here i have it closer to 70 which uh is not a surprise that uh I'm so optimistic on him in that time being the fish by taking it over once again. But Antonio Gibson, I'm going to be early to the party. Yeah, I'm going over. I'm at 68.”
WSH 27, PHI 17 — ESPN's Week 1 record shows Antonio Gibson had 36 rushing and 8 receiving yards against Philadelphia; the stored outcome matches. (Antonio Gibson 36 rushing yards, 8 receiving yards)
“Jonathan Taylor. And at DraftKings, you can get over 700 and a half yards rushing. I just think that that number is far too low”
NFL.com lists Jonathan Taylor with 1,169 rushing yards; the stored outcome matches. (Jonathan Taylor 1,169 rushing yards)
“I'm going over on and Mike, I'm definitely going to want your thoughts on this because it's very much a projection drew lock over 3,450 yards passing.”
NFL.com lists Drew Lock with 2,933 passing yards; the stored outcome matches. (Drew Lock 2,933 passing yards)
“The guy I have as my second favorite prop is Ben Roethlisberger. Again, I'm hitting those overs. And I think it a situation similar to what we saw with Cam Newton in the prop that Sean mentioned where there something of an injury discount or an injury penalty that being factored into the prop So I kind of combining and looking at two props here. The over of 3,800 and a half yards passing and the over of 25 and a half touchdowns passing. I just think those numbers are too low historically based on what Roethlisberger”
NFL.com lists Ben Roethlisberger with 3,803 passing yards; the stored outcome matches. (Ben Roethlisberger 3,803 passing yards)
“And the over for 2,950 yards passing, I think, also has that same assumption.”
NFL.com lists Cam Newton with 2,657 passing yards; the stored outcome matches. (Cam Newton 2,657 passing yards)
“There's also the prop for 19 and a half touchdowns passing, which, again, I think is coming with some sort of injury penalty or the baked-in assumption that Newton is going to play only 12 games or thereabouts.”
NFL.com lists Cam Newton with 8 passing touchdowns; the stored outcome matches. (Cam Newton 8 passing touchdowns)
“It is available at 35 and a half at FanDuel. And that's where I'm going to grab it, taking the under there.”
The XFL canceled the scheduled game before it was played; the recorded void matches.
“one point. But the Renegades have looked good in the past two weeks. This is a over under of 50 and a half, by far the highest total on the slate. Corner, what do you think? Yeah, so this one, I'm right in line with the market. I will not be making any pregame bets. Last week, the only game I didn't make any pregame bets was that DC-LA game. Thank God. I didn't have a good handle on it. This one, I just think it's capped perfectly. This is the game of the week. I think we're going to see a ton of points. For DFS purposes, I love Dallas here. We've seen teams that play Houston and just rack up play counts. We had LA, they ran 73 plays, St. Louis 83, Tampa Bay 76. That's why I have Cameron Artis Payne and Lance Dunbar as my one running backs this week It mostly due to how many targets they see in the passing game You know Artis Payne he the lead back and he still sees you know he saw four targets five targets and six But Dunbar I mean he saw six targets week one six targets week two and then 11 last week. So I just think if we're going to see increased play volume, I can't expect that to go down too much. And I think the reason for that is, you know, we talked about it the other week when Landry Jones was trying to scramble. I mean, his knee is not 100%. So I think he does use them as a safety valve. And I think that goes to show like Dallas, they've been, you know, slow start team with them. That's why I waited for Seattle to take the lead last week. And when I came in on them when they were a pick them in order to beat Houston, they're going to have to shake the rest off right away. So this is a situation where I think Dallas might surprise people. I've been saying that I think they're going to get better and better. They could end up being a top two team in the league. So that's why I'm saying I think this should be a pick them um is because dallas we have to remember that landry jones he missed the whole month leading up to the start of the season so he was going to have some rust he's looked rusty the past couple weeks with some pretty brutal turnovers but i think he's going to be there and he's going to be pretty much at full strength here so i think you know this is going to be a shootout for sure yeah i've bet the over this is the one game where i i feel pretty decent about the over even though it is the highest total on the slate the uh the roughnecks have have shown uh in the first three weeks that they are really an offense that is capable on their own of driving a total to the over. They pass more than anyone else in the league or just as much as anyone else in the league. And even when they get ahead, they still pass. They have the four wide receivers set spreading the defense out. And these defenses, most of them don't have two good cornerbacks. And the idea of having to put four of them out there, it really just emphasizes the extent to which the Roughnecks have an edge offensively and can score points. So I'm on the over here.”
Verified against an ESPN game result: undefined; the recorded outcome matches.
“Mine is probably the under on Guardians Battle Hawks, and although that is the lowest total on the board right now at 40.5, I just have major questions about the Guardians' ability to score any points, and then based on the Battle Hawks, the way that they play, I could see them getting out ahead and then just running the ball, which would drive the game to the over. So I'm seeing more of like a 34 to 7, 34 to 10. Sorry, 24, 24 to 7, 24 to 10 type of game here. So I'm taking the under New York Guardians, Battle Hawks, 40 and a half.”
Verified against an ESPN game result: undefined; the recorded outcome matches.
“my favorite the guardians plus six and a half we talked about them earlier in the show I just think that they were pretty impressive offensively and defensively and the defenders not 100 sold on what they did in week one so six and a half just a lot to be getting i will gladly take the points there”
Verified against an ESPN game result: undefined; the recorded outcome matches.
“Yeah, Sean, kind of dovetailing with what you said. That's why I am pretty, pretty bullish on Williams in a variety of ways, even though I tend to prefer unders for player props. I think Williams is the one guy where I'm really looking for the overs with him. So I already bet early last week, over 50 and a half for him. And maybe that's not the best number, But I don't mind it in the 10 games where he's had at least a 60% snap rate with the Chiefs.”
San Francisco 20, Kansas City 31 — Damien Williams rushed for 104 yards, above 50.5 (NFL gamebook). (Damien Williams 104 rushing yards)
“When it comes to Mostert, 77.5 as one of the numbers that's out there is just obscene. I'm shooting for the middle. I took over 60.5 early last week. That number is still actually available at BetMGM, but it has been juiced up to the over so that they haven't actually moved the line. They've just juiced the over. So now it's at minus 185. But you can still obviously find unders for 77.5 and even 80.5. So I am shooting for the middle. I have over 60.5 and under 77.5 and hoping that we land in that sweet middle.”
San Francisco 20, Kansas City 31 — Raheem Mostert rushed for 58 yards, below 60.5 (NFL gamebook). (Raheem Mostert 58 rushing yards)
“When it comes to Mostert, 77.5 as one of the numbers that's out there is just obscene. I'm shooting for the middle. I took over 60.5 early last week. That number is still actually available at BetMGM, but it has been juiced up to the over so that they haven't actually moved the line. They've just juiced the over. So now it's at minus 185. But you can still obviously find unders for 77.5 and even 80.5. So I am shooting for the middle. I have over 60.5 and under 77.5 and hoping that we land in that sweet middle.”
San Francisco 20, Kansas City 31 — Raheem Mostert rushed for 58 yards, below 77.5 (NFL gamebook). (Raheem Mostert 58 rushing yards)
“Apollos minus eight and a half. I mean, really, I don't know how far this line could move for me not to bet the Apollos.”
Orlando 36-6 Atlanta — Orlando beat Atlanta 36-6 on March 23, so Orlando covered -8.5 (CBS Sports results).
“First question, Matt, the fastest 40-yard dash ever was set by John Ross, Bengals wide receiver in 2017. 4.22 seconds. right now the under for that is that plus 200 the over is at minus 300 what are your thoughts yeah i'm easily betting the over here i would bet this all the way to a thousand a 4.22 is”
Zedrick Woods posted the fastest 2019 combine 40 at 4.29 seconds, leaving John Ross's 4.22 record intact (NFL.com). (Zedrick Woods 4.29 seconds)
“The over under is 45 inches. The over is at plus 225 odds right now. The under is at minus 350. So similar leans on both ways of 40 Matt what are your thoughts Yeah I mean I just going to be the guy who always going to bet against history being made So I bet the under I mean I should say though I mean the record is held by another”
Juan Thornhill's top 2019 vertical was 44 inches, below the 45-inch record, so the under won (NFL.com). (Juan Thornhill 44 inches)
“Good points all around. All right. You mentioned this guy already, but next prop longest broad jump. The record was set in 2015 by Byron Jones. And we should mention this was a world record. It was not just the combine record. No one in the history of the planet has broad jump further than Byron Jones. That was 12 feet, three inches. The over for this is plus 250. The under is minus 400. Matt, I'm guessing you're taking a favorite again here. Yeah, I mean, I'll say conservatively, I would bet this to minus 1,000. Really, I'd bet it to minus 2,000. He didn't just break the record. He obliterated the combine record. Jamie Collins had the record at the time in 2015 when Byron Jones did it. Jamie Collins in 2013 hit 11 feet 7 inches.”
Juan Thornhill's 11-foot-9 broad jump was short of Byron Jones's 12-foot-3 record, so the under won (NFL.com). (Juan Thornhill 11 feet 9 inches)
“But Steven Pea set this way back in 2011. Unfortunately, couldn't quite get 50, but man, the guy got 49. That's more than anyone else can say. So over for that is plus 325. under 49 reps is minus 550. Matt, what are your thoughts? Yeah, I'm going to be the Grinch and bet the under here. But I mean, 49 reps, that is so impressive. But you know, the guy who is second”
Iosua Opeta led the 2019 combine bench press with 39 reps, below the 49-rep record, so the under won (Giants.com). (Iosua Opeta 39 reps)
“on top of everyone's mind Kyler Murray most talked about player in college football most talk about player in this combine you know all these coaches especially with him and haskins since they you know weren't seniors weren't the senior bowl they're gonna be one talking to them in the interview room and get all that done but we also want to see what murray can do the 40 and the vertical and how tall he is so the only guy we can actually bet on how tall he is tyler murray matt what are your thoughts with him yeah so my thoughts are well just we'll start with the height you know oklahoma has been pretty insistent that he is over 5'9 just a shade under 5'10 so So the line for him right now is 5'9". I will take the over there.”
Kyler Murray measured 5 feet 10 1/8 inches at the combine, clearing 5 feet 9 inches (NFL.com). (Kyler Murray 5 feet 10 1/8 inches)
“right last defensive line we're gonna look at Rashan Gary i talked before about you know you want to target those guys that are listed on the top combine freakless this is Rashan Gary yeah he was number one player in the 2016 recruiting class i mean he's been on everyone's radar for pretty much the last half decade i mean he wasn't quite as dominant in michigan as people would have liked but look i mean he was getting double team triple team the guy's legit he's going to be a first round pick, but he can be a top 10 pick if he blows up this combine Biggest thing to keep in mind with him here is we going to talk about some lofty props And this guy is six foot five and 280 pounds He can move Matt what are your thoughts on Gary props Man, he he is physically impressive. And he's been that way since he was a recruit. Like people have known that he's just like he's a known entity as someone who is just like an amazing athlete. and the thing is his athleticism has never really translated into a lot of on-field production and there are ways to you know to account for it um he was getting double teamed and triple teamed a lot um he didn't move around the defensive line a lot there are questions about because of his size he's 6'5 280 pounds sometimes he was an edge rusher sometimes he was playing on the interior as you know a defensive tackle so there are questions about what is he going to do in the NFL and I think what happens at the combine will probably dictate how it is that teams think about uh how they want to use him but man his his over under for the 40 is 4.65 which even admitting that this is a guy who has world-class athleticism there is no way I am taking the under on a guy who is 283 pounds to go under 4.65 seconds like there's just like he might he might be a great athlete you know but he could still be a great athlete and not get 4.65 seconds so I'm just I'm going to bet against the outlier. If he hits 4.65 seconds, he is one of the most athletic players in the NFL.”
Rashan Gary ran a 4.58-second 40 at the combine, so an over 4.65-second pick lost (NFL.com). (Rashan Gary 4.58 seconds)
“So I spent far too much time deciphering just how good Rich Eisen is at running 40s this week. His fastest ever is 5.94 seconds. Now, I've seen over-unders this week at 6 seconds and at 5.95 seconds. I can tell you right now, if you get 5.95, Rich Eisen will not beat that. He is running slower than 5.95 seconds. You can mark that on the board. He's had nine runs since he went away from the dress shoes. The average has been 6.05 seconds, and only three of those runs have broke six seconds. So I'm inclined to take over six seconds as well, but especially over 5.95 seconds. Last year, he was at 5.97. So, I mean, it's not like he hasn't broken the six-second barrier in a few years. But, I mean, if you're going under 5.95, you're predicting Rich to just completely ball out. And look, he did say on his television show, he's been taking this seriously. He's been training, really working on the get out. But I'm sorry, Rich, you're aging, man. You know, I don't think you can do it. So hope you proved me wrong. Yeah, 5.95 is ludicrous. It is very aggressive. I would easily bet the over on that. The one thing that does give me some pause about six is that, you know, like, yeah, as you mentioned in the quote unquote footwear era, he does have a 6.05. but he has gotten progressively faster. So over the past five years, he's averaged just around a six. Over the past three years it been 5 And then last year he did have a 5 So I think he is training He does take it as seriously as someone I think can take something that is a joke But the six, I'll pass at that because I can't see how he would beat it because he has beaten it in two of the past three years. But yeah, if it's 5.95, easily, I'm taking the over there.”
Rich Eisen was clocked at 6.0 seconds in Run Rich Run, so over 5.95 seconds won (NFL.com). (Rich Eisen 6.0 seconds)
“The over-under is 40 points. I'm just going to say, I'm already hammering the under. The Atlanta”
Birmingham 28-12 Atlanta — Birmingham beat Atlanta 28-12, exactly 40 total points, so under 40 pushed (NFL.com).
“Yeah, I like that. I think that's a good idea. And that's I mean, I grabbed it at 57 and a half, the under 57 and a half.”
New England 13-3 Los Angeles Rams — New England beat the Rams 13-3 in Super Bowl LIII, a 16-point game that stayed under 57.5 (ESPN box score).
“I kind of feel more a little more conflicted about yeah uh I'm with you on the on the Chiefs that's the side that I took and I'm honestly well just it's hard because people do like betting the Patriots you know but also the Chiefs have been so dynamic this year that I think the line is probably going to stay around three like I don't think we're going to see any movement really so So yeah, but I saw three right away on Sunday night and I just took it thinking that it might move, it might not but I felt pretty comfortable with three”
New England 37-31 Kansas City — New England beat Kansas City 37-31 in overtime, so Kansas City -3 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“the under I mean I wouldn say like it was just a sort of blind bet situation but you know I got it at 57 and a half you know apparently it opened at 58”
New England 37-31 Kansas City — New England beat Kansas City 37-31 in overtime, a 68-point game that went over 57.5 (ESPN box score).
“but I think it will still matter in this game So I think you add all of those things together For me that points to the under I mean it wouldn be surprising if both of these teams put up like 35 points That wouldn be surprising But I don't know. 57 is a really high number for the postseason, for an outdoor game, for a quarterback playing in his first game. Yeah, I'm going to take the under.”
Kansas City 31-13 Indianapolis — Kansas City beat Indianapolis 31-13, a 44-point game that stayed under 57 (ESPN playoff schedule).
“I can't. I'll tell you, I don't want to admit that I've jinxed the Cowboys, but I bet them on the spread this week. I bet them at seven and a half.”
Los Angeles Rams 30-22 Dallas — The Rams beat Dallas 30-22, so Dallas +7.5 failed to cover by half a point (ESPN playoff schedule).
“So my pick for this is under 49 and a half.”
Los Angeles Rams 30-22 Dallas — The Rams beat Dallas 30-22, a 52-point game that went over 49.5 (ESPN playoff schedule).
“I'm taking Eagles plus uh plus eight”
New Orleans 20-14 Philadelphia — New Orleans beat Philadelphia 20-14, so Philadelphia covered +8 (ESPN playoff schedule).
“And this is the first step, boys. Let's go LA. All right. So we have Ian going against Sean. Pete, I'm going to go against you. The Seahawks are one-point underdogs. I like them to win. I can see them winning by double digits. PJ Walsh has an article on the Action Network talking about how sharp bettors have pounded the Seahawks driving the line from two and a half to one.”
Dallas 24-22 Seattle — Dallas beat Seattle 24-22, so the Seattle moneyline pick lost (ESPN playoff schedule).
“I'm going with the Raiders and the chiefs under it opened at 55 and a”
Kansas City 35-3 Oakland — Kansas City beat Oakland 35-3, a 38-point game that stayed under 55 (Chiefs.com).
“advantage I actually have them with a slight edge I actually took them at 1 I want I take that bet on for this the Friday show so I wean Eagles but I going for us I going with the under here under 46”
Philadelphia 32-30 Houston — Philadelphia beat Houston 32-30 on December 23, so Philadelphia covered -1 (Pro-Football-Reference box score).
“Anyway, I'm taking Houston over 22 and a half. I like that a lot.”
Philadelphia 32-30 Houston — Houston scored 30 points at Philadelphia on December 23, so its over-22.5 team-total pick won (Pro-Football-Reference box score).
“Seattle is at its best or at least what they are fully committed to I do think Seattle will be able to score points against Kansas City's defense so I'm I'm taking Seattle over 26 but I do think this game could go over by Kansas City scoring a lot of points too I just it's it's a situation where”
Seattle 38-31 Kansas City — Seattle scored 38 points against Kansas City on December 23, so its over-26 team-total pick won (Pro-Football-Reference box score).
“But the game that seems like a sneaky stack for me is the Packers Jets game. I think this, this total is a little, it's a couple of points lower than when I had my power ratings model. But you know you have green Bay basically you know out of the playoffs now and nothing to play for So I could see Aaron Rodgers just slinging it around and Aaron Jones might be out so even more reason for Aaron just to throw it around So having a pretty contrarian Rodgers-Adams stack and then sending it back with a guy like Robbie Anderson, who we didn't mention, is always a high upside play. And I don't think we talked about it earlier, but Elijah Maguire has another great play this week at 4,700, I believe it is. he's going to be the workhorse back for the Jets the rest of the season. So I think there's a lot of value here and definitely easy to make some good game stacks. So Sean, as you were speaking, I just bet the over on that game. So, so if I lose money, it's your fault entirely. What number did you get? 44. Not bad. Not bad. I think it opened.”
Green Bay 44-38 New York Jets — Green Bay and the Jets combined for 82 points on December 23, so over 44 won (Pro-Football-Reference box score).
“but I am with you in your analysis of the Packers themselves. Right now, the implied total is 19.5 points. I feel very confident that a team quarterbacked by Aaron Rodgers, where he has a healthy number one receiver, he has a good running back with him, that team can score 20 points. That team should be able to score 20 points, I think almost regardless of who they're playing. And I have respect for the Bears defense. In PFF coverage grade, they're number one. In DVOA, number one overall from the defensive perspective. I respect that unit. Still, Aaron Rodgers should be able to score 20 points against the best defense in the league even if you think they are the best defense in the league like that's the side I clearly want to go on I'm taking the over on Green Bay very easily I'm not going to say that's my favorite bet of the week but like I am actually betting that you know what I mean like I feel confident in that yeah I'm not mad at you because I think you”
Chicago 24-17 Green Bay — Green Bay scored 17 points at Chicago on December 16, so its over-19.5 team-total pick lost (Pro-Football-Reference box score).
“I'm going to take the Ravens over 27 points.”
Baltimore 20-12 Tampa Bay — Baltimore scored 20 points against Tampa Bay on December 16, so its over-27 team-total pick lost (Pro-Football-Reference box score).
“20 and a half for the Eagles, which is where the implied total is right now. He didn't have Alshon Jeffrey. Golden Tate has been added to that offense. Darren Sproles, I believe, was injured early in the season, so he didn't have Sproles in the second game of the season. so like he has as full of a complement of weapons as he's going to have so I don't know 20 and a half like that's not that many points like the Eagles even if you think at this point that kind of like retrospectively Frank Reich was a much bigger part of what that offense was doing than Doug Peterson last year and I think that's the case I still have enough respect for Peterson to think that in a game that is must win for them, because they can still technically make the playoffs if a lot of things break out right, and maybe they still have like the quote unquote heart of a champion, and they're going against a very good team. Like I think they will want to be like motivated where even if they lose, they lose playing like the Super Bowl champion. All of those things factor together. I think they have to be able to score at least 21 points. You know what I mean? So that's where I'm going to go.”
Philadelphia 30-23 Los Angeles Rams — Philadelphia scored 30 points at the Rams on December 16, so its over-20.5 team-total pick won (Pro-Football-Reference box score).
“I'm going to go with Baltimore over 22 and a half points for the team total.”
Kansas City 27-24 Baltimore — Baltimore scored 24 points at Kansas City on December 9, so its over-22.5 team-total pick won (Pro-Football-Reference box score).
“like I can take the Bucs at plus nine. If scoring is low, that increases the odds that the Bucs are going to cover. And you have 81% of the tickets, 84% of the money on the spread backing the Saints. I think that's too high for a few reasons. One, because these are teams that are divisional opponents. They are familiar with each other. And granted, it was a different time. You had Fitzpatrick playing in week one no Mark Ingram but the Bucs have already beat the Saints once this season like it's not inconceivable for the Bucs to lose by only eight points in this game especially since they are at home I'm going to take the Bucs I think they have enough offense to to be able to cover so I'll do it this is a this is a fascinating kind of case study of”
New Orleans 28-14 Tampa Bay — New Orleans beat Tampa Bay 28-14 on December 9, so Buccaneers +9 lost (Pro-Football-Reference box score).
“you, Action Network. Yeah, no way I can do Raiders. What I can do, what I can do for my pick is obviously take the total with Kansas City, three, five and a half. They've hit their implied total eight times out of 11 games. They have the highest margin at 8.23 points on average. And then you have on the other side of that, the Raiders, one of the worst teams in the league at allowing teams to hit their implied total.”
Kansas City 40-33 Oakland — Kansas City scored 40 points at Oakland on December 2, so its over-35.5 team-total pick won (Pro-Football-Reference box score).
“I don't care. I'm going with the over 51 and a half. And a lot of it is just based on the fact that the Steelers are at home in the, you know, like Antonio Brown is an all pro era. So like since 2014, since they've kind of had this, this version of the offense, they have really outperformed at home. Everyone knows that, but it's really made their overs kind of like one of the lock bets of the past half decade.”
Los Angeles Chargers 33-30 Pittsburgh — Los Angeles and Pittsburgh combined for 63 points on December 2, so over 51.5 won (Pro-Football-Reference box score).
“I'm picking the Jets, not to win outright, but I think to make this close. The Patriots and the Jets are both coming off of a bye. The Pats are favored on the road by nine and a half. I think this is a close game. I think the Jets cover.”
New England 27-13 New York Jets — New England beat the Jets 27-13 on November 25, so Jets +9.5 lost (Pro-Football-Reference box score).
“I am going with the over what is 56 in this game”
New Orleans 48-7 Philadelphia — New Orleans beat Philadelphia 48-7, a 55-point game that stayed under 56 (NFL.com schedule).
“Stupidly, I'm taking Pitt minus five and a half. I'm laying the points here.”
Pittsburgh 20-16 Jacksonville — Pittsburgh beat Jacksonville 20-16, so Pittsburgh -5.5 did not cover (NFL.com schedule).
“Chris, Sunday Night Football, the 5-3 Vikings at the 6-3 Bears. Bears favored by 2.5, a 44.5 over under. The total is down from 45.5. The Vikings are coming off the bye. The Bears have won three straight games. The first of two games that these teams will play against each other this year. How are you looking at this game? I think that there's a little bit of value here on the Minnesota side of this because I'm not sure the Bears are, you know, even on a neutral field, the better team. So, you know, they're at home. They're getting the two and a half. They'll probably get to the three. But I like the Vikings here. They needed, they really did need that bye to kind of regroup, get people healthy. on their defense was really banged up Dalvin Cook was banged up but now they're kind of coming out of the bye Cook giving them that explosive element um you know he's up over four yards of carry now after a rough start Murray's at four and a half yards of carry um and then the Minnesota defense they're number one on third down and they're number two in uh in red zone defense a percentage percentage of touchdown allowed so they're actually they like even though they've kind of had these rough spots and it's been ugly at times like they their defense has still kind of done what what we expected it to do um and yes they did play teams like the bills and the jets but they also played the packers the rams the saints so um the schedule has been fairly balanced i would say for the most part as the underdog like i think this is a pretty a toss even if uh even though Chicago at home so I like Minnesota here as the uh as the two and a half point underdog yeah I agree with everything you said two and a half I would wait like officially I would wait to bet this till three and I think it probably will move there but you know for the purposes of this yeah I will take them at two and a half coming off the bye they should be healthy Dalvin Cook especially uh should”
Chicago 25-20 Minnesota — Chicago beat Minnesota 25-20, so Minnesota +2.5 did not cover (NFL.com schedule).
“I'm going New Orleans over 30 on the team total, but I do actually feel comfortable at this point where I would take that at five and a half versus six.”
New Orleans 51-14 Cincinnati — New Orleans beat Cincinnati 51-14, so the Saints scored over their 30-point team total (NFL.com schedule). (New Orleans Saints 51 points)