pending
Las Vegas Raiders under 6.5 wins
“and I absolutely love the under”
Matthew Freedman
Guest · 72-61-1 on settled picks
Record
72-61-1
Cash %
54.1%
Net units
+22.53u
ROI
+16.9%
Bankroll
Last 10: 6-4 Net units over time, 1 unit staked per pick · 44 settled daysWhere the picks cash
record by league and market · ROI + color appear at ≥5 decided picks (smaller samples are noise)| League | prop | futures | spread | total | other | moneyline | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 38-21+39% | 12-14+17% | 4-10-45% | 6-6-5% | 5-2+36% | 0-1 | 65-54+18% |
| Other | — | 3-2+38% | 3-4-18% | 1-1 | — | — | 7-7+4% |
Picks
144 total · 8 pending pending
Zamir White over 775.5 rushing yards
“And then Zamir White over 775.5”
pending
Los Angeles Chargers over 8.5 wins
“8 and a half is is the total there. So this is one of the few win totals that I don't mind betting the over on.”
pending
Zamir White over rushing yards 775.5
“Zimmer white's number is 775.5. I think he could absolutely smash that. I have this [36:28] projected at 930.7,”
pending
Over 700.5 rushing yards · DraftKings
“Jonathan Taylor. And at DraftKings, you can get over 700 and a half yards rushing. I just think that that number is far too low”
pending
Over 3450 passing yards
“I'm going over on and Mike, I'm definitely going to want your thoughts on this because it's very much a projection drew lock over 3,450 yards passing.”
pending
Over 3800.5 passing yards
“The over of 3,800 and a half yards passing and the over of 25 and a half touchdowns passing. I just think those numbers are too low historically based on what Roethlisberger has done when he's been healthy.”
pending
Over 2950 passing yards
“final prop that I'm going to highlight here, not a surprise, teased it earlier, Cam Newton smashing the over on the passing yardage and then also over on the touchdowns”
won
Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown (-110) · DraftKings
“Jalen Hurts, anytime touchdown, minus 110. [6:59] Again, I think this should be closer to minus 160, minus 165.”
Jalen Hurts scored a 1-yard rushing touchdown. (Hurts rushing TD)
won
Kareem Hunt under 44.5 rushing yards (-114) · DraftKings closed +42.5 · CLV +2
“kareem hunt under 44 and a half [17:49] rushing yards this is now minus 114 at draft kings i have this projected at 40”
PHI 40, KC 22 — Kareem Hunt: 9 rushing_yards vs under 44.5; covers. (Kareem Hunt: 9 rushing_yards)
won
Patrick Mahomes under 29.5 rushing yards (-107) · DraftKings closed +29.5 · CLV 0
“I'm looking at Patrick Mahomes under 29 and a half rushing yards. [27:46] This is minus 107 at DraftKings.”
PHI 40, KC 22 — Patrick Mahomes: 25 rushing_yards vs under 29.5; covers. (Patrick Mahomes: 25 rushing_yards)
lost
Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl (+500)
“I will be with Simon five to one on the chiefs to win the Super Bowl. I like that one.”
The Chiefs lost Super Bowl LIX to the Eagles 40-22.
won
Jayden Daniels to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+600)
“whether it's the futures market, absolutely love him for offensive rookie of the [9:36] year. He's six to one in that market.”
Jayden Daniels won 2024 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (49 of 50 first-place votes). (495 points, well ahead of Bowers and Nix.)
lost
Patrick Mahomes under 21.5 fantasy points (-140)
“Patrick Mahomes under 21 and a half fantasy points. I just absolutely bet this.”
Mahomes far exceeded 21.5 fantasy points: 333 pass yds, 2 pass TD, 1 INT, 66 rush yds (~26 pts). (34/46, 333 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 66 rush yds.)
won
Marquez Valdes-Scantling longest air yards on a single reception (+980)
“longest air yards from a single reception mvs at plus 980”
MVS's 16-yard TD grab was his only notable catch (3 rec, 20 yds) and, with Mahomes' league-low ~6.5 average depth of target that season, it's the deepest single reception of the game, so MVS's field bet on longest air-yards catch wins. (MVS 3 rec, 20 yds, 16-yd TD (deepest target))
lost
Elijah Mitchell under 1.5 carries
“I'm going with Eli Mitchell under one and a half carries.”
Elijah Mitchell had 2 carries, over 1.5. (Mitchell 2 carries for 8 yds.)
won
Christian McCaffrey anytime touchdown (-220)
“So Christian McCaffrey at minus 220.”
McCaffrey scored a 21-yard receiving TD. (McCaffrey 1 receiving TD.)
lost
Brock Purdy more passing yards than Patrick Mahomes (+125)
“Purdy versus Mahomes, most passing yards, I can get Purdy at plus 125.”
In Super Bowl LVIII, Patrick Mahomes threw for 333 yards vs. Brock Purdy's 255 yards, so Purdy did not out-gain Mahomes. (Purdy 255 pass yds, Mahomes 333 pass yds)
lost
Brock Purdy over 0.5 interceptions (-115)
“And I also have Purdy throwing an interception at minus 115 odds.”
Brock Purdy threw 0 interceptions; over 0.5 did not hit. (Purdy 0 INT.)
won
Harrison Butker over 1.5 field goals made (-110)
“So over one and a half field goals for Harrison Bucker.”
Harrison Butker made 4 field goals, over 1.5. (Butker 4/4 FG (28, 57, 24, 29).)
lost
Brock Purdy to win NFL MVP (+7500)
“one of the most intriguing bets to me that I've made this offseason was Brock Purdy 75”
Lamar Jackson won 2023 MVP; Brock Purdy, though an MVP finalist, did not win.
lost
Anthony Richardson to be the No. 1 overall pick (+1000) · FanDuel
“10 to one at FanDuel, that is still the best number that is in the market for Anthony Richardson.”
Bryce Young was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, not Anthony Richardson.
won
Kansas City Chiefs +1.5 closed +1.5 · CLV 0
“I'm on the Chiefs.”
PHI 35, KC 38 — Kansas City Chiefs margin +3 vs line +1.5; covers.
won
Over
“So like Simon, I'm on the over.”
Super Bowl LVII total (closing ~50.5) went well over, with a combined 73 points scored (Chiefs 38, Eagles 35). (Total: 73 points (closing O/U 50.5))
lost
Evan Neal first OL drafted (+150)
“And I mean, across the market, [12:51] to get anywhere from plus 150 to plus 200 odds on Evan Neal to be the first offensive lineman [12:58] drafted. I think there's significant value there.”
The first offensive lineman drafted in Round 1 was Ikem Ekwonu (T, NC State) at #6 by the Carolina Panthers. Evan Neal went #7 to the Giants. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_NFL_draft (First OL: Ikem Ekwonu #6; Neal #7)
lost
Evan Neal to #3 pick (+1000)
“I like that. 10 to one Evan Ilf. [13:40] I would bet that. [13:42] In fact, when we're done with this, I'm going to go bet it.”
Evan Neal was drafted #7 overall by the New York Giants, not #3. The #3 pick was Derek Stingley Jr. (CB) by Houston. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_NFL_draft (Evan Neal: pick #7)
won
Under 2.5 QBs in round 1 (+190)
“you can [23:13] actually bet under two and a half and you can get about plus 190 which i think is long enough”
Only one quarterback was drafted in Round 1 of the 2022 NFL Draft: Kenny Pickett at #20. The under 2.5 wins. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_NFL_draft (1 QB drafted R1 (Pickett #20))
won
Kenny Pickett over 12.5 draft position
“Kenny Pickett, the number that I bet was 12 and a half. [43:09] I think you said it moved up to 16 and a half. [43:11] Doesn't matter. [43:12] Still, I would still bet it at 16 and a half.”
Kenny Pickett was drafted #20 overall by the Pittsburgh Steelers. Over 12.5 wins (20 > 12.5). Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_NFL_draft (Kenny Pickett: pick #20)
lost
Malik Willis to Steelers (+300)
“If Willis is three to one, yes, I am betting that.”
The Steelers drafted Kenny Pickett (QB) at #20, not Malik Willis. Willis was not drafted until Round 3 (#86) by the Tennessee Titans. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_NFL_draft (Steelers #20: Kenny Pickett QB; Willis: R3 #86 TEN)
lost
Jahan Dotson over 32.5 draft position
“And I was able to get him earlier at 32 and a half [30:49] at plus odds on the over.”
Jahan Dotson was drafted #16 overall by the Washington Commanders. Over 32.5 loses (16 < 32.5). Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_NFL_draft (Jahan Dotson: pick #16)
lost
Tyler Linderbaum over 27.5 draft position
“Linderbaum, great player, but he might fall out of round one. And I think there's a very, very good chance he hits the over on 27 and a half.”
Tyler Linderbaum was drafted #25 overall by the Baltimore Ravens. Over 27.5 loses (25 < 27.5). Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_NFL_draft (Tyler Linderbaum: pick #25)
won
Under 0.5 RBs in round 1 (-200)
“A bet that I really do like is under 0.5 running backs in round one. And you know, [36:46] the number that I first grabbed on that, I think was minus one 70. I think you can still get that [36:52] around minus 200”
Zero running backs were drafted in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Under 0.5 wins. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_NFL_draft (0 RBs drafted R1)
won
Bills first pick a defensive back (+150)
“you said plus 150 for [39:20] defensive back yes uh i i think there's great value on that i would bet that i would bet that”
The Bills' first pick was Kaiir Elam (CB, Florida) at #23 overall, a defensive back. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_NFL_draft (Bills first pick: Kaiir Elam CB (#23))
won
Under 0.5 tight ends in round 1 (-760)
“make it minus a thousand minus 2000. It doesn't matter. I would probably bet it that we do not [41:27] have a tight end in round one.”
Zero tight ends were drafted in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Under 0.5 wins. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_NFL_draft (0 TEs drafted R1)
won
Skyy Moore over 35.5 draft position · DraftKings
“Sky Moore, one of the wide receivers I mentioned earlier, [43:22] I would bet over 35 and a half. And this number was at DraftKings.”
Skyy Moore was not drafted in Round 1; he went #54 overall (Round 2) to the Kansas City Chiefs. Over 35.5 wins (54 > 35.5). Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_NFL_draft (Skyy Moore: pick #54 (R2))
lost
John Metchie over 56.5 draft position (+110)
“another wide receiver I looking at John Mechie over 56 and a half this at Steezers at plus 110”
John Metchie III was selected 44th overall by the Houston Texans in the 2022 NFL Draft. Pick 44 is under the 56.5 line, so the 'over' bet loses. Source: NFL.com (Pick No. 44 overall (2nd round, Houston Texans))
lost
Quay Walker over 38.5 draft position
“Quay Walker over 38 and a half off ball linebacker. It's just not a priority for most teams picking in the top eight of round two.”
Quay Walker was selected 22nd overall by the Green Bay Packers in the 2022 NFL Draft. Pick 22 is under the 38.5 line, so the 'over' (drafted later/higher number) bet loses. Source: NFL.com (Pick No. 22 overall (1st round, Green Bay Packers))
won
Trevon Walker to be the No. 1 overall pick
“And if I had to make a bet right now on the number one pick, it would be Trevon Walker and not Aiden Hutchinson.”
Travon Walker was selected No. 1 overall by Jacksonville in the 2022 NFL Draft.
won
Under 2.5 quarterbacks taken in Round 1
“And so I'm going to take the under two and a half quarterbacks. If we see a quarterback go in round one or in the top 10, it's only one. And if I had to bet right now, I would bet no.”
Only one QB (Pickett) went in Round 1, so under 2.5 quarterbacks won.
lost
Evan Neal to be the first offensive lineman drafted (+130 to +150) (+140)
“anywhere from plus 130 to plus 150 is a number that you can find. I am betting on Evan Neal to be the top offensive lineman taken in this class.”
Ikem Ekwonu (6th) was the first OL drafted; Evan Neal went 7th, so Neal-first lost.
lost
Malik Willis to be first QB drafted (+200)
“Malik Willis at plus 200 and Kenny Pickett plus 175.”
Kenny Pickett was the first QB drafted (No. 20), so Malik Willis (first QB) lost.
won
Kenny Pickett to be first QB drafted (+175)
“Malik Willis at plus 200 and Kenny Pickett plus 175.”
Kenny Pickett was the first quarterback drafted in the 2022 NFL Draft (No. 20 overall).
lost
Ikem Ekwonu to be the No. 1 overall pick (+1000) · FanDuel
“So, Iquanu, if I had to make a bet on the number one pick right now, I would go Iquanu.”
Jacksonville took Travon Walker No. 1 overall in the 2022 NFL Draft; Ikem Ekwonu went No. 6 to Carolina, so the bet lost.
lost
Taysom Hill to start Week 1 for the Saints +280 (+280)
“I actually did [41:36] take Taysom Hill at a higher number than this. I think I got it around 280,”
Jameis Winston, not Taysom Hill, started Week 1 for the Saints (38-3 win over Green Bay).
lost
Trey Lance to start Week 1 for the 49ers +240 (+240) · FanDuel
“So easily I'm on the side of plus 240 with Lance, plus 220 with Taysom [41:55] Hill. I really like both of those bets.”
Jimmy Garoppolo started Week 1 for the 49ers; Trey Lance did not.
won
Trevon Moehrig to be the first safety drafted (-400) (-400)
“One of the ones that isn't sexy, Trevon Morig as the number one safety off the board.”
Trevon Moehrig (No. 43) was the first safety drafted in 2021, cashing the bet.
won
Under 5.5 quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 (-400)
“You have to put a lot of juice on it, but under five and a half quarterbacks, like, come on,”
Five quarterbacks (Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, Jones) went in Round 1 — under 5.5 hit.
won
Washington to draft a defensive player in Round 1 (+200) (+200)
“you can bet a plus 200 for them to go with a defensive player.”
Washington drafted LB Jamin Davis (defensive player) at No. 19 in Round 1.
lost
Mac Jones to be drafted No. 3 overall
“Mac Jones train I'm very much on the Mac Jones train and so if Mac Jones goes number three it”
Trey Lance was the No. 3 overall pick; Mac Jones went 15th, not 3rd.
lost
Under 2.5 Pac-12 players drafted in Round 1 (+100)
“One of my favorites, and this one's kind of obscure, under two and a half Pac-12 players in round one.”
Three Pac-12 players were drafted in Round 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft: Penei Sewell (Oregon, pick 7), Alijah Vera-Tucker (USC, pick 14), and Joe Tryon (Washington, pick 32). Three is not under 2.5. Source: https://www.si.com/college/cal/news/pac-12-in-first-round (3 Pac-12 players in Round 1: Sewell (7), Vera-Tucker (14), Tryon (32))
lost
Trevon Moehrig to be first safety drafted (-400) · BetMGM
“I'm going Trayvon Morig as the number one safety in the draft.”
Trevon Moehrig was NOT the first safety drafted; he went pick 43 (Round 2) to the Las Vegas Raiders. The first safeties taken were Jevon Holland (pick 36, Dolphins) and Richie Grant (pick 40, Falcons), both ahead of Moehrig. (Wikipedia, 2021 NFL Draft) (Moehrig pick 43; Holland (36) and Grant (40) went first)
won
Kyle Pitts to the Atlanta Falcons (+160) · BetMGM
“I'm going against you. I think it's Kyle pits. That's one of my favorite bets. Kyle pits to the”
Kyle Pitts was drafted 4th overall by the Atlanta Falcons. Bet on Pitts to the Falcons hits. (Wikipedia, 2021 NFL Draft) (Pick 4, Atlanta Falcons)
won
Washington Football Team to draft defense with their first pick (+210) · BetMGM
“The Washington football team to draft defense with the first pick.”
Washington Football Team used pick 19 on Jamin Davis (inside linebacker, Kentucky) — a defensive player. Bet on Washington drafting defense with first pick hits. (Wikipedia, 2021 NFL Draft) (WFT pick 19: Jamin Davis, ILB (defense))
won
Under 5.5 QBs drafted in Round 1 (-450) · BetMGM
“but under five and a half quarterbacks in round one,”
Exactly 5 quarterbacks were drafted in Round 1: Trevor Lawrence (1), Zach Wilson (2), Trey Lance (3), Justin Fields (11), Mac Jones (15). Under 5.5 cashes. (Wikipedia, CBS Sports, 2021 NFL Draft) (5 QBs in Round 1 (under 5.5))
won
Defense to Washington with first pick (+450)
“is defense to Washington with their first pick in the draft.”
Washington Football Team's first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft was Jamin Davis (LB, Kentucky) at pick #19 — a defensive player. (Washington Commanders official site; 2021 NFL Draft Wikipedia) (Pick 19: Jamin Davis, LB)
won
Offensive player to Las Vegas with first pick (+225)
“offensive player to Las Vegas with the first pick,”
Las Vegas Raiders' first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft was Alex Leatherwood (OT, Alabama) at pick #17 — an offensive player. (Pro-Football-Reference.com: 2021 Las Vegas Raiders Draftees) (Pick 17: Alex Leatherwood, OT)
won
WRs in round 1 over 4.5
“And I think we have a pretty good chance of going over four and a half wide receivers in round one.”
Five wide receivers were selected in Round 1 of the 2021 NFL Draft: Ja'Marr Chase (5), Jaylen Waddle (6), DeVonta Smith (10), Kadarius Toney (20), Rashod Bateman (27). 5 > 4.5. (Pro-Football-Reference.com: 2021 NFL Draft Listing) (5 WRs in Round 1)
won
Patrick Surtain II under 10.5 draft pick
“I would take the under there.”
Patrick Surtain II was selected 9th overall by the Denver Broncos in the 2021 NFL Draft. 9 < 10.5 (under). (NFL.com; Denver Broncos official site) (Pick 9 overall)
lost
Mahomes Under 19.5 rushing yards
“I am taking the under on 19 and a half yards rushing because we have seen him with the toe injury seemingly be just a little less willing to.”
TB 31, KC 9 — Patrick Mahomes: 33 rushing_yards vs under 19.5; busts. (Patrick Mahomes: 33 rushing_yards)
won
Mike Evans Under 63.5 receiving yards
“I'm going under Mike Evans 63 and a half yards receiving under Chris Godwin 77 and a half yards receiving”
TB 31, KC 9 — Mike Evans: 31 receiving_yards vs under 63.5; covers. (Mike Evans: 31 receiving_yards)
won
Chris Godwin Under 77.5 receiving yards
“I'm going under Mike Evans 63 and a half yards receiving under Chris Godwin 77 and a half yards receiving”
TB 31, KC 9 — Chris Godwin Jr.: 9 receiving_yards vs under 77.5; covers. (Chris Godwin Jr.: 9 receiving_yards)
won
Scotty Miller Under 20.5 receiving yards
“I'm thinking it's likelier than not that Brown plays. I might be wrong there. But if Brown plays, I'm certainly going under Scotty Miller. And I'm honestly just taking the under on Miller right now”
Scotty Miller finished Super Bowl LV with 0 receiving yards, well under the 20.5 line. (0 rec, 0 yds)
won
Ronald Jones Over 8.5 carries
“I'm with you on Ronald Jones. I have over eight and a half carries.”
Ronald Jones had 12 carries in Super Bowl LV, over the 8.5 line. Buccaneers won 31-9. Source: statmuse.com/nfl/ask/ronald-jones-career-stats-in-the-super-bowl (Ronald Jones 12 carries, 61 yards)
lost
Tyreek Hill Over 91.5 receiving yards
“I am going over 91 and a half yards receiving.”
TB 31, KC 9 — Tyreek Hill: 73 receiving_yards vs over 91.5; busts. (Tyreek Hill: 73 receiving_yards)
won
Travis Kelce Over 7.5 receptions and Over 94.5 receiving yards
“I'm going over Kelsey, seven and a half receptions over 94 and a”
TB 31, KC 9 — Travis Kelce: 10 receptions vs over 7.5; covers. (Travis Kelce: 10 receptions)
lost
Deshaun Watson passing yards under 272.5
“This is one of the rare instances in which I will be taking an under on you, Sean, but it's pretty close. I have it at 268 and a half.”
HOU 20, IND 26 — Deshaun Watson: 341 passing_yards vs under 272.5; busts. (Deshaun Watson: 341 passing_yards)
lost
Austin Eckler receiving yards over 46.5
“I will still go over uh I will be the uh the eclair optimist here and I will I will go over”
Austin Ekeler had 4 catches for 32 receiving yards in the Chargers' 45-0 loss to New England on Dec. 6, 2020, under the 46.5 line. (Ekeler: 4 rec, 32 yds (also 8 car, 36 rush yds))
lost
Evan Engram receiving yards over 45.5
“I feel like I've tipped my hand here, so I will have to go over. I have it. You, Sean, you said 45 and a half.”
Evan Engram had 4 catches for 32 receiving yards in the Giants' 17-12 win over Seattle on Dec. 6, 2020, under the 45.5 line. (Engram: 4 rec, 32 yds)
lost
Tom Brady passing yards over 277.5
“and I'm pretty adamantly taking the over here.”
NO 34, TB 23 — Tom Brady: 239 passing_yards vs over 277.5; busts. (Tom Brady: 239 passing_yards)
lost
Antonio Gibson rushing and receiving yards over 60.5
“Yeah, I'm going over.”
Antonio Gibson totaled just 44 combined rushing/receiving yards in his Week 1 debut, well under 60.5. (Antonio Gibson Week 1 2020: 9 car, 36 rush yds; 2 rec, 8 rec yds = 44 combined)
won
Over 19.5 passing touchdowns
“There's also the prop for 19 and a half touchdowns passing, which, again, I think is coming with some sort of injury penalty or the baked-in assumption that Newton is going to play only 12 games or thereabouts.”
Cam Newton threw only 8 passing touchdowns for the Patriots in 2020, well under the 19.5 line. (Cam Newton 2020: 8 passing TDs in 15 games)
void
Under 35 · FanDuel
“It is available at 35 and a half at FanDuel. And that's where I'm going to grab it, taking the under there.”
Dallas at DC Week 6 XFL game was never played; the league canceled its season after Week 5.
lost
DC Defenders -2.5
“I would still bet them at minus two and a half on the road against the Vipers. I think it's a good bounce back spot for them.”
Tampa Bay shut out DC Defenders 25-0; DC did not cover (or come close to covering) -2.5. (Tampa Bay Vipers 25, DC Defenders 0)
lost
Over 50.5
“I've bet the over this is the one game where I I feel pretty decent about the over even though it is the highest total on the slate”
Houston beat Dallas 27-20 (total 47), under the 50.5 total. (Houston 27, Dallas 20 (total 47))
won
Under 4.5 quarterbacks drafted in Round 1
“This is an egregious line.”
Exactly 4 quarterbacks were taken in Round 1 of the 2020 NFL Draft (Burrow, Tagovailoa, Herbert, Love), under 4.5, so the under wins.
won
Over 4.5 wide receivers drafted in Round 1 · Fox Bet
“I would say five, so an over four and a half.”
Six wide receivers were drafted in Round 1 of the 2020 NFL Draft, over 4.5, so the over wins.
won
Under 40.5 · FanDuel
“Mine is probably the under on Guardians Battle Hawks, and although that is the lowest total on the board right now at 40.5, I just have major questions about the Guardians' ability to score any points, and then based on the Battle Hawks, the way that they play, I could see them getting out ahead and then just running the ball, which would drive the game to the over. So I'm seeing more of like a 34 to 7, 34 to 10. Sorry, 24, 24 to 7, 24 to 10 type of game here. So I'm taking the under New York Guardians, Battle Hawks, 40 and a half.”
St. Louis beat New York 29-9 (total 38), under the 40.5 total. (St. Louis 29, New York 9 (total 38))
lost
New York Guardians +6.5
“my favorite the guardians plus six and a half we talked about them earlier in the show I just think that they were pretty impressive offensively and defensively and the defenders not 100 sold on what they did in week one so six and a half just a lot to be getting i will gladly take the points there”
DC Defenders shut out New York Guardians 27-0 in XFL Week 2; Guardians' +6.5 was buried by the 27-point margin. (Defenders 27, Guardians 0 (Guardians +6.5))
won
Patrick Mahomes rushing yards under
“I'm very much with both of you guys. I really like the Mahomes rushing under. I put that in the Action Network app as one of my prop bets for the game.”
Mahomes rushed for 29 yards; he actually had 44 rushing yards before taking three game-sealing kneel-downs, and the consensus market number (mostly 29.5) hit the under — a famous Super Bowl prop bad-beat for over bettors. (Patrick Mahomes: 29 rushing yds, 1 rushing TD)
lost
Patrick Mahomes pass attempts under 35.5 (+115) · DraftKings
“If you look at DraftKings Sportsbook right now, the under 35 and a half is plus 115 for pass attempts. The under for 23 and a half completions is plus 125. So I like that you're getting positive numbers for both of those. I like those quite a bit.”
Patrick Mahomes attempted 42 passes in Super Bowl LIV, over the 35.5 line. (Mahomes: 26/42, 286 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT)
lost
Patrick Mahomes completions under 23.5 (+125) · DraftKings
“The under for 23 and a half completions is plus 125. So I like that you're getting positive numbers for both of those. I like those quite a bit.”
Patrick Mahomes completed 26 passes in Super Bowl LIV, over the 23.5 line. (Mahomes: 26/42, 286 yds)
won
Damian Williams rushing yards over 50.5
“So I already bet early last week, over 50 and a half for him.”
Damien Williams rushed for 104 yards on 17 carries with a 38-yard TD, well over the 50.5-yard line. (Damien Williams: 17 car, 104 yds, 1 TD)
won
Damian Williams total rushing + receiving yards over 82.5 · DraftKings
“there's a prop out there, his total rushing and receiving yards at DraftKings, it's 82.5. And I like the over for that. That just seems a little bit too low for me.”
Damien Williams totaled 133 rushing+receiving yards (104 rushing + 29 receiving) in Super Bowl LIV, clearing the 82.5 line. (Williams: 104 rush yds + 29 rec yds = 133 total)
lost
Raheem Mostert rushing yards over 60.5 (-185) · BetMGM
“I took over 60.5 early last week. That number is still actually available at BetMGM, but it has been juiced up to the over so that they haven't actually moved the line. They've just juiced the over. So now it's at minus 185.”
KC 31, SF 20 — Raheem Mostert: 58 rushing_yards vs over 60.5; busts. (Raheem Mostert: 58 rushing_yards)
won
Raheem Mostert rushing yards under 77.5
“I am shooting for the middle. I have over 60.5 and under 77.5 and hoping that we land in that sweet middle.”
KC 31, SF 20 — Raheem Mostert: 58 rushing_yards vs under 77.5; covers. (Raheem Mostert: 58 rushing_yards)
lost
Titans under win total 7.5
“For me, the one bet I really like is Titans under.”
The Titans finished 2019 at 9-7, over the 7.5 win total. (Tennessee Titans 2019: 9-7)
won
Arizona Hot Shots +2.5
“I'm with you. I will take the points there.”
Arizona Hotshots beat San Antonio Commanders 23-6 outright, easily covering +2.5. (Arizona 23, San Antonio 6 (AAF Week 8, Mar 31 2019))
won
Orlando Apollos -8.5
“Apollos minus eight and a half. I mean, really, I don't know how far this line could move for me not to bet the Apollos.”
Orlando Apollos routed Atlanta Legends 36-6 (AAF Week 7), covering -8.5 easily. (Orlando Apollos 36, Atlanta Legends 6)
lost
Birmingham Iron -3
“Birmingham minus three. I have them closer to, I'd say, like six. So I'm clearly leaning in that direction.”
Memphis Express beat Birmingham Iron 31-25 in OT; Birmingham lost outright, failing to cover -3. (Memphis Express 31, Birmingham Iron 25 (OT))
won
Birmingham Iron +6
“I am all over Birmingham I think this might be the most mispriced line of the week”
Birmingham Iron beat San Diego Fleet 32-29, winning outright and covering +6. (Birmingham Iron 32, San Diego Fleet 29)
lost
Birmingham -7
“I am hammering the iron curtain of the Birmingham iron there.”
Birmingham lost outright to San Antonio 11-12, nowhere close to covering -7. (Final: San Antonio 12, Birmingham 11.)
won
Over 4.22s (record NOT broken) (-300)
“yeah i'm easily betting the over here i would bet this all the way to a thousand a 4.22 is”
2019 Combine's fastest 40 was Zedrick Woods at 4.29s — John Ross's 4.22s record (set 2017) was not broken. (Fastest 2019 Combine 40: 4.29s (Zedrick Woods))
won
Under 45 inches (record NOT broken) (-350)
“I mean I just going to be the guy who always going to bet against history being made So I bet the under”
Best 2019 Combine vertical jump was D.K. Metcalf's 40.5" — the 45" record was not broken. (Top 2019 Combine vertical: 40.5" (D.K. Metcalf))
won
Under 12'3" (record NOT broken) (-400)
“Yeah, I mean, I'll say conservatively, I would bet this to minus 1,000.”
Best 2019 Combine broad jump was Juan Thornhill's 11'9" — Byron Jones's 12'3" record (2015) was not broken. (Top 2019 Combine broad jump: 11'9" (Juan Thornhill))
won
Under 49 reps (record NOT broken) (-550)
“bet the under here. But I mean, 49 reps, that is so impressive.”
No 2019 combine bench press performance came close to the 49-rep record (Stephen Paea, 2011); the combine high in 2019 was 39 reps (Mitch Opeta, OL), so the record stood. (2019 combine bench press high: 39 reps)
lost
Over 40 bench reps
“I wouldn't go too heavy on it, but I think I'd go all the way to minus 170.”
No player at the 2019 combine reached even 40 bench press reps; the overall high was 39 (Mitch Opeta, OL). (2019 combine bench press high: 39 reps)
won
Over 5'9"
“So the line for him right now is 5'9".”
Kyler Murray measured 5'10-1/8" at the 2019 combine, clearing the 5'9" line. (Height: 5'10 1/8")
void
Over 32.5 inches
“actually bet the over on 32 and a half inches obviously an explosive athlete in terms of rushing”
Kyler Murray skipped all athletic testing at the combine and did not perform the vertical jump at Oklahoma's pro day either, so the prop never had a result to settle. (Murray: DNP vertical jump (combine and pro day))
won
Over 4.8 seconds
“rosen and so like if i had to take a side i would still bet over 4.8 seconds it wouldn't be surprising”
Dwayne Haskins ran a 5.04-second 40-yard dash at the 2019 combine, well over the 4.8s line. (40-yard dash: 5.04s)
won
Under 4.96 seconds
“So I expect him to hit the under.”
N'Keal Harry ran an official 4.53-second 40-yard dash at the 2019 combine, beating the 4.96s under line. (40-yard dash: 4.53s)
won
Over 4.36 seconds
“I would bet the over.”
Greedy Williams ran an official 4.37-second 40-yard dash at the 2019 combine, just over the 4.36s line. (40-yard dash: 4.37s)
won
Under 4.55 seconds
“So I would expect him to be able to surpass 4.55.”
Devin White ran a 4.42-second 40-yard dash at the 2019 combine, well under the 4.55s line. (40-yard dash: 4.42s)
lost
Over 23.5 reps
“So 23 and a half is the over under and I would take the over.”
Devin White bench pressed 22 reps at the 2019 combine, short of the 23.5 line. (Bench press: 22 reps)
won
Over 4.65 seconds
“I would expect him to hit the over like 4.65 is just a”
Nick Bosa ran a 4.79-second 40-yard dash at the 2019 combine, over the 4.65s line. (40-yard dash: 4.79s)
won
Over 24 reps
“really aggressive mark in general I would expect him though to hit the over on his bench press”
Nick Bosa bench pressed 29 reps at the 2019 combine, clearing the 24 line. (Bench press: 29 reps)
won
Over 4.6 seconds
“does which is like overwhelming athletic ability so I would expect him to be slower than 4.6”
Kentucky's Josh Allen (DE) ran a 4.63-second 40-yard dash at the 2019 combine, over the 4.6s line. (40-yard dash: 4.63s)
won
Over 22.5 reps
“seconds but his over under for the bench press is 22 and a half I would expect him to be able to”
Kentucky's Josh Allen (DE) bench pressed 28 reps at the 2019 combine, clearing the 22.5 line. (Bench press: 28 reps)
lost
Over 4.65 seconds
“he could still be a great athlete and not get 4.65 seconds so I'm just I'm going to bet against”
Rashan Gary ran a 4.58-second 40-yard dash at the 2019 combine, faster than (under) the 4.65s line. (40-yard dash: 4.58s)
lost
Over 30 reps
“bench before we move on Oh I mean I would I would expect the over it 30 which is aggressive like that a very respectable number but at the same time like this is someone who is very strong who had”
Rashan Gary bench pressed 26 reps at the 2019 combine, short of the 30 line. (Bench press: 26 reps)
won
Over 5.95 seconds
“I can tell you right now, if you get 5.95, Rich Eisen will not beat that.”
Rich Eisen ran a 6.00-second 40-yard dash at the 2019 combine, over the 5.95s line. (Rich Eisen 40-yard dash: 6.00s)
push
Under 40
“The over-under is 40 points. I'm just going to say, I'm already hammering the under. The Atlanta”
Birmingham beat Atlanta 28-12; the combined 40 points hit the total exactly. (Final: Birmingham 28, Atlanta 12 (total 40).)
lost
Rams +3
“I think I'm probably in a situation where I think I will bet the Rams plus three and hope that the Patriots win by one or two.”
LAR 3, NE 13 — Los Angeles Rams margin -10 vs line +3; busts.
won
Under 57.5
“Yeah, I like that. I think that's a good idea. And that's I mean, I grabbed it at 57 and a half, the under 57 and a half.”
LAR 3, NE 13 — Combined 16; under 57.5 covers.
lost
Saints -3
“playing at home, I feel pretty strongly on the Saints here.”
NO 23, LAR 26 — New Orleans Saints margin -3 vs line -3; busts.
lost
Chiefs -3
“I'm with you on the on the Chiefs that's the side that I took and I'm honestly well just it's hard because people do like betting the Patriots”
KC 31, NE 37 — Kansas City Chiefs margin -6 vs line -3; busts.
lost
Under 57.5
“the under I mean I wouldn say like it was just a sort of blind bet situation but you know I got it at 57 and a half you know apparently it opened at 58”
KC 31, NE 37 — Combined 68; under 57.5 busts.
won
Under 57
“Yeah, I'm going to take the under”
KC 31, IND 13 — Combined 44; under 57 covers.
lost
Cowboys +7.5
“I can't. I'll tell you, I don't want to admit that I've jinxed the Cowboys, but I bet them on the spread this week. I bet them at seven and a half.”
LAR 30, DAL 22 — Dallas Cowboys margin -8 vs line +7.5; busts.
lost
Under 49.5
“So my pick for this is under 49 and a half.”
LAR 30, DAL 22 — Combined 52; under 49.5 busts.
lost
Chargers +4
“I'm taking the charges in this spot. I think they have a, if this is, this is, this is the chance. This is their chance, like their chance to win this game.”
NE 41, LAC 28 — Los Angeles Chargers margin -13 vs line +4; busts.
won
Eagles +8
“I'm taking Eagles plus uh plus eight”
NO 20, PHI 14 — Philadelphia Eagles margin -6 vs line +8; covers.
lost
Seahawks ML
“The Seahawks are one-point underdogs.”
DAL 24, SEA 22 — Seattle Seahawks lost; moneyline busts.
won
Under 55
“I'm going with the Raiders and the chiefs under it opened at 55 and a”
KC 35, OAK 3 — Combined 38; under 55 covers.
won
Eagles -1
“advantage I actually have them with a slight edge I actually took them at 1 I want I take that bet on for this the Friday show so I wean Eagles but I going for us I going with the under here under 46”
PHI 32, HOU 30 — Philadelphia Eagles margin +2 vs line -1; covers.
lost
Under 46
“I'm going with the under for this game but I do lean eagles just just by a tiny tiny bit yeah I”
PHI 32, HOU 30 — Combined 62; under 46 busts.
won
Texans team total over 22.5
“Anyway, I'm taking Houston over 22 and a half. I like that a lot.”
Texans scored 30 in loss to Eagles (32-30) — over the 22.5 team total. (Eagles 32, Texans 30)
won
Seahawks team total over 26
“to score points against Kansas City's defense so I'm I'm taking Seattle over 26 but I do think this”
Seahawks scored 38 in win over Chiefs (38-31) — well over the 26 team total. (Seahawks 38, Chiefs 31)
won
Over 44
“So Sean, as you were speaking, I just bet the over on that game.”
IND 28, NYG 27 — Combined 55; over 44 covers.
won
Colts team total under
“I'm taking the under on the team total for Indianapolis.”
Colts shut out Cowboys 23-0; Colts' 23 points came in under the implied team total (game total 47, Colts -3, implied ~25). (Colts 23, Cowboys 0)
lost
Packers team total over 19.5
“I'm taking the over on Green Bay very easily I'm not going to say that's my favorite bet of the week but like I am actually betting that”
Packers scored 17 in loss to Bears (24-17) — under the 19.5 team total. (Bears 24, Packers 17)
lost
Over 52
“I'm right there with you.”
PIT 17, NE 10 — Combined 27; over 52 busts.
lost
Ravens team total over 27
“I'm going to take the Ravens over 27 points.”
Ravens scored 20 vs Buccaneers (20-12 win) — under the 27 team total. (Ravens 20, Buccaneers 12)
won
Browns +2.5
“I 100 with you on this I really don even need to add anything I think Cleveland”
DEN 16, CLE 17 — Cleveland Browns margin +1 vs line +2.5; covers.
won
Eagles team total over 20.5
“20 and a half for the Eagles, which is where the implied total is right now.”
Eagles scored 30 in win over Rams (30-23) — over the 20.5 team total. (Eagles 30, Rams 23)
won
Ravens team total over 22.5
“I'm going to go with Baltimore over 22 and a half points for the team total.”
Ravens scored 24 in OT loss to Chiefs (27-24) — over the 22.5 team total. (Chiefs 27, Ravens 24 (OT))
lost
Buccaneers +9
“I'm going to take the Bucs I think they have enough offense to to be able to cover”
TB 14, NO 28 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers margin -14 vs line +9; busts.
lost
Panthers -1.5
“I'm with you on the side of Carolina one and a half”
CLE 26, CAR 20 — Carolina Panthers margin -6 vs line -1.5; busts.
won
Chiefs team total over 35.5
“What I can do, what I can do for my pick is obviously take the total with Kansas City, three, five and a half. They've hit their implied total eight times out of 11 games. They have the highest margin at 8.23 points on average. And then you have on the other side of that, the Raiders, one of the worst teams in the league at allowing teams to hit their implied total.”
OAK 33, KC 40 — Combined 73; over 35.5 covers.
lost
Over 51.5
“I don't care. I'm going with the over 51 and a half. And a lot of it is just based on the fact that the Steelers are at home in the, you know, like Antonio Brown is an all pro era. So like since 2014, since they've kind of had this, this version of the offense, they have really outperformed at home. Everyone knows that, but it's really made their overs kind of like one of the lock bets of the past half decade.”
DET 16, LAR 30 — Combined 46; over 51.5 busts.
lost
Jets +9.5
“I think the Jets cover.”
NYJ 13, NE 27 — New York Jets margin -14 vs line +9.5; busts.
lost
Over 56
“I am going with the over what is 56 in this game”
NO 48, PHI 7 — Combined 55; over 56 busts.
lost
Steelers -5.5
“Stupidly, I'm taking Pitt minus five and a half. I'm laying the points here.”
JAX 16, PIT 20 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin +4 vs line -5.5; busts.
lost
Vikings +2.5
“I will take them at two and a half coming off the bye they should be healthy Dalvin Cook especially uh should be healthier.”
CHI 25, MIN 20 — Minnesota Vikings margin -5 vs line +2.5; busts.
won
Saints team total over 30
“I'm going New Orleans over 30 on the team total, but I do actually feel comfortable at this point where I would take that at five and a half versus six.”
Saints beat Bengals 51-14, scoring 51 — well over the 30 team total. (Saints 51, Bengals 14)