Jeremiah Love top 4 pick
“on that thing matt you are our guest you are dialed in what's your favorite bet of them all
as we head into the nfl draft i need to get the updated number but if you can still get i mean up
until very recently jeremiah love to be a top five pick was like minus 135 i have to imagine that
that been crushed minus 500 right now okay if you could get him even in the top four and pay a little bit of a better price tag on that I just think that kind of my big take right now is that the germ I love is not lasting past pick four
I think he is going to be one of the first four players drafted.
I think that honestly, at this point, I think he's going to end up going third.
So that's the guy that I am locked in on.
I think he ends up finishing in the top four.”
Jeremiyah Love (RB, Notre Dame) was drafted No. 3 overall by the Arizona Cardinals, inside the top 4.
Arizona Cardinals to draft Ty Simpson
“the way I've been betting this market is I'm just betting the Cardinals to be the team to draft Ty Simpson”
The Arizona Cardinals used their first-round pick on RB Jeremiyah Love at No. 3; Ty Simpson was drafted No. 13 by the Los Angeles Rams.
Jordyn Tyson to be the first wide receiver drafted
“And I have some positions on Tyson being the first receiver taken in this draft.”
Carnell Tate (WR, Ohio State) was the first wide receiver drafted at No. 4; Jordyn Tyson went No. 8 to the Saints.
Spencer Fano first OL drafted
“I like Spencer Fano to be the top offensive lineman, the first offensive lineman drafted.”
Spencer Fano (OT, Utah) was the first offensive lineman drafted, No. 9 overall by the Cleveland Browns.
Over 234.5
“I like that game to go over 234 and a half”
114-104 — Pistons beat the Hawks 114-104 on Jan 22, 2025; combined score of 218 fell short of the over 234.5 total (ESPN box score).
Washington Commanders to win NFC East (+700)
“[33:08] And the bet for me was the commanders to win the NFC East at plus 700.”
Philadelphia won the 2024 NFC East at 14-3; Washington finished second at 12-5 (Wikipedia 2024 NFL season standings). (NFC East: Philadelphia 14-3; Washington 12-5)
Washington Commanders +3.5
“[34:08] And I think catching three and a half points here versus the Cardinals, it's just too much.
[34:13] I would have had this line on the other side of three.
[34:17] It hasn't moved really at all, which is a bit surprising to me.
[34:22] But yeah, I think as long as you're getting more than a field goal here, the commanders are playable in this spot.”
ARI 14, WSH 42 — Washington beat Arizona 42-14; the Commanders' +28 margin easily covered the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
Atlanta Falcons -2.5
“[37:15] How do you see this one playing out in Atlanta Sunday afternoon? Yeah, I like the Falcons laying
[37:20] the two and a half here. When this number was first released, it was Falcons three and a half.”
ATL 26, NO 24 — Atlanta beat New Orleans 26-24; Atlanta's +2 margin fell short of the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
Minnesota Vikings under 6.5 wins
“I took an under on six and a half wins because I am just not a big believer in retread quarterbacks.”
The Vikings went 14-3 in the 2024 regular season, well over 6.5 wins, so the under busts (Wikipedia 2024 Minnesota Vikings season). (Vikings 2024 regular-season record: 14-3)
Los Angeles Chargers to miss playoffs
“It's another team I have a strong opinion on for the upcoming season. I'm actually on the different side of you, Femi. My favorite bet with the Chargers is for them to miss the playoffs.”
The Chargers went 11-6 in 2024 and made the playoffs as the AFC's #5 seed, so they did not miss the playoffs (Wikipedia 2024 NFL season). (Chargers 2024 regular-season record: 11-6, made playoffs as #5 seed)
Buffalo Bills to miss the playoffs
“[2:53] But the Bills are a team I'm down on, right?
[2:55] They are, it's a rebuilding year.
[2:59] They're going to have an entirely new receiving core for the most part.
[3:02] Their entire starting secondary from last year is gone.
[3:06] So I think if the Bills are going to win the division for a fifth straight year,
[3:09] it's going to have to be on the back of a massive Josh Allen season.
[3:14] And I just prefer what the Jets and Dolphins have built.
[3:18] I think that they are better teams top to bottom.
[3:21] So I think that there's some value in the Bills to miss the playoffs.”
13-4 — Buffalo went 13-4, won the AFC East, and made the 2024 NFL playoffs, so the bet on the Bills to miss the playoffs lost (ESPN final standings).
Josh Allen to win NFL MVP
“[3:21] So I think that there's some value in the Bills to miss the playoffs.
[3:25] But at the same time, I am hedging that a little bit with some Josh Allen MVP.
[3:31] So if Josh Allen does have the big season and the Bills do, you know, end up winning 11, 12 games again, I think that Allen gets rewarded and he's right in the thick of that MVP conversation.”
Josh Allen was named the 2024 AP NFL Most Valuable Player at NFL Honors, so the Josh Allen MVP bet won (NFL.com).
Will Levis over 25 passing touchdowns
“[4:03] I was looking through your futures a little while ago,
[4:05] and there's a name that I love that you love that I love that you love.
[4:11] And that's my guy, Will Levis with the Tennessee Titans.
[4:16] You've got him over 25 tutties to the positive.
[4:22] And I'm going to tell you, I love that.
[4:23] I've already taken his overpassing yards prop this year
[4:27] because I think he's getting there.
[4:28] I think it's set too low, Matt LaMarca.
[4:31] You're going, and maybe talking me into as well, taking the over 25 tutty mark.
[4:37] Talk to me about your thoughts on Captain Mayonnaise.
[4:41] This is another one.
[4:42] I think you can attack this from both sides, right?
[4:45] Like, you can play the touchdown passes.
[4:48] You can also maybe look at some of the interception props on Will Levis.
[4:52] But I don't know if he's going to be good or bad.
[4:55] the thing that I do know is that the volume is going to be ratcheted up in Tennessee.”
Will Levis threw 13 passing touchdowns in the 2024 regular season, below the 25.5 line, so the over lost (ESPN stats). (13 passing TD)
Pittsburgh Steelers to make the playoffs
“[10:52] I think Matt let me see if we can help Alex
[10:52] behind the scenes go from six to midnight.
[10:55] You think the Steelers are making the playoffs.
[10:57] Tell me why.
[10:59] I mean, Mike Tomlin, it's pretty much that simple.
[11:04] I don't bet against Mike Tomlin.
[11:07] Never had a losing season.
[11:09] He's made the playoffs in, I believe, 11 out of his 17 years.”
10-7 — Pittsburgh finished the 2024 regular season 10-7 and made the playoffs as the AFC's No. 6 seed, so the Steelers to make the playoffs bet won (ESPN final standings).
Joe Burrow to win Comeback Player of the Year
“[13:33] Yeah.
[13:34] And the crazy thing is he's not the favorite in this market, right?
[13:38] Aaron Rodgers is the favorite who checks a lot of the same boxes, right?
[13:43] He missed all of last season.
[13:44] he's going to play for a Jets team that has pretty high expectations this year
[13:49] but one of those two players is 41 years old or is going to turn 41 years old and has spent part
[13:57] of the offseason in South America doing weird retreats and the other one is a guy who is in
[14:04] the prime of his career who was arguably the second best player in football before he got hurt
[14:09] like I'm putting my money in the Joe Burrow basket over the Aaron Rodgers basket every day of the
[14:14] week.”
Joe Burrow won the 2024 AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year award at NFL Honors, so the bet won (NFL.com).
Spencer Schwellenbach over 5.5 strikeouts
“[59:35] I really like Spencer Schwellenbach over five and a half strikeouts”
Spencer Schwellenbach struck out 10 in 7.0 IP for Atlanta, clearing the over 5.5 K line (ESPN box score, Marlins at Braves). (Spencer Schwellenbach: 10 K in 7.0 IP)
Houston Astros to win the AL West
“Yeah, I like the Astros to win the division, which I think is you can get that at around even money. I think that is a great bet.”
Houston Astros clinched their fourth straight 2024 AL West title (ESPN). (2024 AL West champion: Houston Astros)
Houston Astros
“And I like them to win tonight.”
HOU 3, SEA 0 — Houston Astros beat Seattle Mariners 3-0 (ESPN).
Oakland Athletics
“i like the the athletics against the angels”
OAK 13, LAA 3 — Oakland Athletics beat Los Angeles Angels 13-3 (ESPN).
Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers under 8.5
“So I like the under eight and a half on that game as well.”
LAD 4, BOS 1 — Los Angeles Dodgers beat Boston Red Sox 4-1, combined 5 runs, under 8.5 covers (ESPN).
Minnesota Twins at Arizona Diamondbacks under 9
“live. We got game out in Arizona between the Twins and the D-backs. We also have the Cubs and the Giants. Any plays for you in either of those games today? Yeah, I was on, for the Arizona-Minnesota game, I was on the strikeouts. No, I'm sorry. I was on the under, under for that game. I like the prospect that the Twins called up, David Festa. You know, he was right at the bottom end of that top 100 prospect list, guy who was averaging over 13 strikeouts per nine innings in the minor leagues. So I really like what he's bringing to the table for them, not just today, but moving forward. And Jordan Montgomery, you know, has not been good so far for the Diamondbacks, been a bit of a disaster. but he's got a track record of success and he has started to turn things around uh over his past few outings you know he had uh two runs over six innings in his last start so he's the guy that i'm expecting to pitch a little bit better moving forward so i added those up ultimately it came out as an under for me we got so it's interesting too to look at um you know the way things shape up”
Twins 13, Diamondbacks 6 — Twins beat Diamondbacks 13-6 (19 combined runs); under 9 total busted (ESPN box score).
Boston Celtics to win game 1 and series (-150)
- Boston Celtics moneyline won
- Boston Celtics to win NBA Finals won
“I'm not going to be touching the spread in game one. I think the best way to play it is you can go with the game one series double, right? Celtics to win game one, Celtics to win the series. that I think was something like minus 150, minus 175 maybe. And I'm looking at the Celtics on the spread.”
107-89; series 4-1 — Boston beat Dallas 107-89 in Game 1 and went on to win the 2024 NBA Finals series 4-1, so both legs of the double won (ESPN box score; series result per ESPN).
Boston Celtics -2.5 games (+175)
“And I'm looking at the Celtics on the spread. You can play them minus one and a half games is roughly even money at BetMGM. I like the minus two and a half games number. I think that this is going to be over in five or fewer. And you can get a pretty nice payout on that plus 175.”
series 4-1 — Boston won the 2024 NBA Finals 4-1 over Dallas, a 3-game series margin that covers Celtics -2.5 games (ESPN Game 5 box score).
Jamal Murray under 20.5 points
“Do you have anything else in this game do you like from a player prop standpoint? I took the Murray under. It's come down again. It's down now to 20 and a half points, which, you know, it's getting to that point where maybe we almost consider buying low on it. But he was three for 18, I think, in game two. And, you know, yes, there was a extended layoff between games two and three. Maybe that helps Murray a little bit. But, you know, the way that Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley and, you know, Jaden McDaniels have defended him in this series, I'm not expecting like a ton of progression from him. So I'm going to continue to ride the under. It has come down, but I still think it's a little bit too high.”
Jamal Murray scored 24 points (11-for-21 shooting) in Denver's 117-90 Game 3 win, so his points went over 20.5 and the under lost (ESPN box score). (Murray: 24 points)
Indiana Pacers team total over 114.5
“they're basically on a one day on, one day off schedule. I think eventually that has to come back to bite them. So if the Pacers can hold serve here in game three, I think the longer this series goes, the greater the Pacers chances of pulling off the upset. So yeah, I think if you like the Pacers in game three, and I do, the way I'm playing them for the record is I'm taking the over on their team total, 114 and a half points. But if you do like that tonight, you should probably consider something along the lines of the Pacers to win the series or maybe even Pacers plus one and a half games something like that to supplement a bet on Friday when we talk about player props in”
111-106 — Indiana scored 111 points in its Game 3 win over New York, below its team-total line of 114.5 (ESPN box score). (Pacers 111)
Milwaukee Brewers to win NL Central
“I love the Brewers' over 76.5 wins, and I have also bet the Brewers to win this division.”
The Milwaukee Brewers won the 2024 NL Central, clinching on September 18, 2024 (ESPN).
Jabari Smith Jr. under 8.5 rebounds
“But the the prop in this game that I highlighted in my write-up today over on Fantasy Life, under eight and a half rebounds for Jabari Smith Jr.”
Jabari Smith Jr. grabbed 9 rebounds in Houston's 123-107 win over Portland, going over the 8.5-rebound under line (ESPN box score). (Jabari Smith Jr. 9 rebounds)
Orlando Magic-New York Knicks under 204
“Yeah, I've bet the under here. And like you said, this total has dropped like a rock. It opened at 211. It's now down to 204 at some places.”
NYK 98, ORL 74 — Knicks beat Magic 98-74; the 172-point combined score cleared the under 204 total (ESPN box score).
New Orleans Pelicans -6.5
“Yeah, this was the first bet I made. I bet this spread basically once it opened yesterday. I laid the 6.5 with the Pelicans against my boy Mark Drumheller's hometown 76ers.”
NO 103, PHI 95 — Pelicans beat 76ers 103-95, winning by 8 to cover New Orleans' -6.5 spread (ESPN box score).
Coby White to win Most Improved Player
“I would be looking at Coby White in the most improved player market. You can get him at, you know, roughly four to one, five to one.”
Tyrese Maxey won the 2023-24 Kia NBA Most Improved Player award over Coby White, so the Coby White futures bet lost (NBA.com award announcement). (2023-24 NBA Most Improved Player: Tyrese Maxey)
Mark Daigneault to win Coach of the Year (-190)
“I have tickets on him at, you know, even money. I think you can still bet it at minus 190, to be honest.”
Mark Daigneault won the 2023-24 NBA Coach of the Year award for the Thunder, cashing the futures bet (NBA.com award announcement). (2023-24 NBA Coach of the Year: Mark Daigneault)