NC State ML (Sweet 16 rollover start) (-108)
“NC State, the goal here is to bet them on the money line
and get them to win three rounds.
So if they win three rounds,
instead of getting to the Elite Eight,
they just make it to the Sweet 16.
And what that does is it helps them,
you know, avoid having to play a one or a two seed,
which of course in their region is Purdue
in the two seed there.
So that would avoid Purdue.
But I have NC State power rated better than Texas.
They did play earlier this year.
But, you know, Texas won.
But I think NC State is still the better team.
I have them, you know, about a half a point, one point better than Texas.
So, you know, you can even get the Wolfpack if you want to play them on the spread at plus one and a half in some spots.
Or you can get a minus 108 on the money line.
I'm fine.
Either way, you want to do that in the first round.
But I like NC State because then they would face BYU, and BYU has been on a slide.”
Independent verification agrees: NC State lost to Texas 66-68 in the First Four on March 17, 2026 (Tramon Mark game-winner); NC State ML loses.
St. John's -10.5
“even though they a double digit favorite against the northern iowa panthers no uh i don and uh i actually have St John as a pick in this region So they my pick in the Duke half of the region
And I actually have the Red Storm 11 points
better than Northern Iowa.
I know the line is like 10 and a half now.
I think it was nine and a half earlier in the week.
But one key aspect of this matchup is UNI,
their defense is number three in the nation
in defending the three-point shot.
But St. John's doesn't really shoot the three at a high rate.
So it kind of negates one of UNI's defensive, core defensive strengths.
And if you're doing that, it's going to be St. John's, I think, scoring from the interior.
And, you know, I understand it's going to be a slow-paced game with Northern Iowa playing at a slow pace.
But St. John's can get to the line.
I know UNI doesn't foul, but St. John's can create foul opportunities even when other teams try not to foul.
by working their way inside.
And again, negating one of the absolute best defensive strengths of UNI
is going to be, I think, a big win there offensively for St. John's.
So maybe look for this game to also go over a little bit.
But I'm also picking St. John's because kind of like with Arizona,
where I have Arkansas as the only team equipped to beat Arizona,
I have St. John's as the only team equipped to beat Duke
in that top half of that East region.
I don't have Kansas.
I have St. John's about two and a half to three points better than Kansas.
I'd make them around minus 150 on the money line.
But I suspect against Kansas, we'd probably get more like minus 135, minus 140.
I think the market's both undervaluing St. John's and overvaluing Kansas, who I have as only 13 point favorites versus Cal Baptist.
But the market is sitting at around 14 and a half.
So I think we'd get some value against St. John's as well.
And from there, they put up a good fight against Duke.
That is, again, another banged up team.
They play at a relatively slow pace, bottom 80 nationally, so they don't get to realize their per-possession advantage as much.
And Duke also can be a bit of a high variance.
They shoot a ton of threes and they allow a ton of threes, which, again, picks up some variance, which is what you want when you're taking an underdog against a top-seeded team.
A couple questions to follow up there.
First, you and I are a spiritual relative, at least to those Virginia teams with the pack line defense.
So I'm a little bit surprised that you're fading them right away.
But your points are well taken. And let's look further ahead because I actually like St. John's if they can sneak by you and I and don't get into a rock fight in a game like that. I do think they match up better against Kansas. But let's look even further that Duke matchup that you discussed in terms of your modeling. Do you look at it?
from a perspective of is Gangba 100%?
Is he playing right away?
And then clearly Foster is the straw that stirs the drink offensively.
They labored through the ACC tournament.
Yes, they cut down the nets, but they almost lost to Florida State.
The offense looks a little bit disjointed at times.
And when it gets to crunch time, who is the primary ball handler?
Are you looking at it two potential matchups,
one with Foster back in the fold in the Sweet 16,
which would be the best case scenario for Duke,
and one with him in street clothes on the bench.
Yeah, absolutely.
And you kind of have to look at it that way.
But either way, it's less about the matchup.
I don't really care.
I'm just trying to find a team that can get to the Elite Eight for this strategy.
And St. John's is the only team here that has a chance at upsetting Duke, in my opinion.
So that's why I'm rolling with St. John's here.
And it's so much less about individual matchups or individual players for me.
This is a more holistic kind of strategy where I'm just looking at spots where I think teams are undervalued and have upside to get to the Elite Eight.
And St. John's has that ability to provide us with that, with this gift and guide strategy.
And, you know, for St. John's, legitimately because they would be a good enough, a large enough dog against Duke,
You could even take St. John's instead of covering the spread in the first round against Northern Iowa, Moneyline in the first round and then Moneyline against Kansas and then Moneyline against Duke.
And I think I calculated it to where it would be good enough to still at worst break even, assuming they face Duke.
So, you know, if you're afraid of that spread bet against Northern Iowa, you can take Moneyline.
I'm not afraid of it.”
Independent verification agrees: St. John's beat Northern Iowa 79-53 in the first round on March 20, 2026.
Louisville ML (-210)
“And we're looking for a three round strategy, not a one round strategy.
And I do still like them against South Florida because both teams play fast and South Florida plays 15th in pace nationally.
So this is going to be probably a 70 plus possession game, even maybe 73, 75 possessions in that neighborhood.
And again, that's just more possessions to realize your per possession advantage.
So I certainly don't mind Louisville here to cover the spread.
But again, you can play them on the money line because we have this double up spot where we could potentially cash out if they face the other pick from this sub region.
So I'm taking them on the money line in the first round, right?
I think I have them about minus 240 and there's minus 225s out there.
There's even a minus 210.
But I like them on the money line in the first round.”
Independent verification agrees: Louisville beat South Florida 83-79 in the first round on March 19, 2026.
UCF ML · DraftKings
“So you're bringing in another one in this sub-region into the fold, and that's Central Florida.
And say less, it's Mick Cronin going to the East Coast.
It's been well documented, and this team also, from a Bruin perspective, has injuries.
Is Bilodeau, Dents, are they both available?
If not, how far could they drop in terms of offensive efficiency?
So walk me through why you like UCF.
And if they do end up matching up with UConn, what does that particular matchup look like to you?
Yeah, I mean, this is an interesting spot.
So we've got UCLA, like you said, going east to Philadelphia, whereas UCF gets to stay in their time zone.
So that's a little bit of a help there.
And also UCLA, slow-paced team.
So again, we like underdogs when they face slow paced teams because less possession advantage.
So I have UCF here as kind of a four and a half point underdog, but the market's making
them five and a half points.
That also translates on the money line.
So, you know, I have UCF at plus 195 and there's plus 205s out there at DraftKings.
So that's an attractive price.
So I just have this as a value for UCF.
You could also play UCLA if you wanted to substitute.
If you liked UCLA better than UCF here, you could use UCLA here because the slow pace when they would end up facing UConn, who is also on the slower side of pace, would keep the game closer.
And that means more chance for an upset.
So I certainly understand if people wanted to flip to UCLA.
And I totally recommend it, right?
Like, you know, I want you to do this Giffen Guide to March Madness.
maybe with my picks, but also if you'd like something else, do it your way with your picks.
But my pick is UCF just because I have value in that first round there.”
Independent verification agrees: UCF lost to UCLA 71-75 in the first round on March 20, 2026.
McNeese State ML (+475)
“take them. But I mean, if they cover the spread and don't win, that doesn't do anything for this
strategy anyway. So you got to take them on the money line, but I just have a little bit of value
here. And honestly, this was my last pick. I had seven teams pretty locked in and I was struggling
to find an eighth pick and I really dug in and just kind of came up with McNeese State here. So
this is my least confident play my least I would say favorite play but it is my
eighth of eight plays and I'm gonna take them because plus 475 against Vanderbilt
is a little bit of value by my numbers here”
Independent verification agrees: McNeese State lost to Vanderbilt 68-78 in the first round on March 19, 2026.
Texas A&M ML
“So you can money line Texas A&M versus St. Mary's, money line them versus Houston.”
Independent verification agrees: Texas A&M beat Saint Mary's 63-50 in the first round on March 19, 2026.
A.J. Barner 3rd quarter touchdown (+1200)
“I'm going A.J. Barner, third quarter touchdown at 12 to one.
[17:00] So we'll put 130 bucks on that.”
Independent verification agrees: A.J. Barner's 16-yard TD came in the 4th quarter (13:24), not the 3rd quarter.
Cooper Kupp first reception Under 10.5 yards (-120) · DraftKings
“I'm going Cooper Cup first reception yards under 10 and a half.
It's minus 120 odds at DraftKings.
And this is my big bet.”
Independent verification agrees: Cooper Kupp's first reception went for 23 yards (Darnold-to-Kupp, 1st drive) vs under 10.5; busts.
Any defensive player to win Super Bowl MVP (+1300) · DraftKings
“There's a lot of ways this could go, but instead of just picking one player, just take the defense 13 to one odds is way too long.”
Independent verification agrees: MVP went to RB Kenneth Walker III (offense), not a defensive player.
Texas to reach the Sweet 16 (ML rollover from First Four) (+140)
“recording this, we're releasing this, plus 140 on the money line is just a bit too long. I have this
closer to about plus 125 as fair value. So I'm going to roll Texas over on the money line from
the first four all the way to the sweet 16 as my first pick.”
Texas lost 86-80 to Xavier in the First Four and did not reach the Sweet 16 (NCAA). (Xavier 86-80 Texas)
UCLA to reach the Elite Eight (ML rollover)
“ucla on the money line from the first round to the Elite Eight as my second pick here in the Midwest region.”
UCLA lost 67-58 to Tennessee in the second round and did not reach the Elite Eight (NCAA). (Tennessee 67-58 UCLA)
North Carolina to reach the Sweet 16 (ML rollover from First Four) (-182)
“I was able to get them on the money line at minus 182, so that is my play here.
And then from there, if they win, they'll be facing Ole Miss.
Ole Miss, this game, they would be a coin flip.
So we're going to money line them against Ole Miss.
And then most likely they're going to face Iowa State, the three seed.
However, Iowa State is very banged up.
Kashawn Gilbert out for the year.
Tam and Lipsy questionable for the first couple of rounds.
So this is a good spot to target a three seed that is banged up.
And we just need to get to the Sweet 16 because we're starting from the first four here.
So that's the three games UNC on the money line or to cover the spread in the first round and then on the money line to the Sweet 16.”
North Carolina lost 71-64 to Ole Miss in the first round and did not reach the Sweet 16 (NCAA). (Ole Miss 71-64 North Carolina)
Marquette to reach the Elite Eight (ML rollover)
“So I prefer going with Marquette here. And this game versus New Mexico, close enough that we can just Moneyline roll over Marquette, Moneyline roll them over versus Michigan State, and then Moneyline roll them over again to the Elite Eight.”
Marquette lost 75-66 to New Mexico in the first round and did not reach the Elite Eight (NCAA). (New Mexico 75-66 Marquette)
Kansas to reach the Elite Eight (ML rollover)
“we'll Moneyline rollover Kansas all three games from the first round to the Elite Eight.”
Kansas lost 79-72 to Arkansas in the first round and did not reach the Elite Eight (NCAA). (Arkansas 79-72 Kansas)
VCU to reach the Elite Eight (ML rollover)
“So we Moneyline rolling over VCU the VCU Rams from the first round to the Elite Eight”
VCU lost 80-71 to BYU in the first round and did not reach the Elite Eight (NCAA). (BYU 80-71 VCU)
Saint Mary's to reach the Elite Eight (ML rollover)
“So we're going to play St. Mary's on the money line again from round one to the Elite Eight to complete the eight picks for the 2025 Giffen Guide to March Madness.”
Saint Mary's lost 80-66 to Alabama in the second round and did not reach the Elite Eight (NCAA). (Alabama 80-66 Saint Mary's)
Over 5.5 Eagles players to record a reception (+138) · FanDuel
“And it is over five and a half Eagles players to record a reception.
So kind of went through each player and looking at A Brown Devontae Smith Dallas Goddard Barring an injury injury these players are all 95 plus you know 98 plus to to have a catch
Saquon Barkley based off our projections is around 85 to 90% to have a catch barring an
injury.
So we're already at like four players that are probably going to have a reception.
We need to find two more.
Well, if we look at Jahan Dotson, uh, and whoever's the Eagles RB too, right?
Of course, Gainwell dealing with a concussion.
Hopefully he plays that certainly would help this.
But even if it's Will Shipley replacing Gainwell, one or more of Dotson and the Eagles RB2 is around 75 percent to have a catch here.
So that gets us to five if it's one of the two.
And if it's both, we're already over five and a half.
If not, if it's just one of the two, we need to find one more player.
Well, there's a lot of ways that we can get one more player to have a reception here.
Right.
And I've got this at about a 50-50 chance just some other player gets a reception.
It could be Johnny Wilson.
It could be Grant Calcaterra.
Those are the two most likely candidates outside of the players we've named so far.
Maybe Paris Campbell plays one snap in one route and gets one reception.
Or EJ Jenkins, tight end three.
Maybe it's a random lineman, right?
Or Jalen Hurts on a gadget play.
Or maybe he catches his own batted pass, right?
It's the Super Bowl.
You're going to pull out all the stops here.
Maybe you're going to go with a fake punt. We saw the commanders do that last weekend.
I should say two weekends ago now because of the bye week. But, you know, this is the Super Bowl.
This is where you've prepared all season and especially these last two weeks for this game.
Maybe your most successful trick play. That's where you pull it out.
So I think if any spot is likely to have an extra player randomly get a catch, it is going to be here.
uh and also just both the times this year the eagles have you know come off of rest whether it's
the bye week or coming into week one uh or i even i should say all three times they're coming into
the rams game um i should say never mind the packers game i was thinking there was a bye week
between the uh the wild card ignore that part but you get the point the two times they've come off
rest they have had over five and a half players catch a pass so there could be an injury right
Like maybe Devontae Smith gets a catch and partway through the game he gets injured and then another wide receiver has to step up.
There lots of ways for this sixth player to get a reception So overall I have this around 47 which means that pretty solid value at plus 138 at FanDuel”
The NFL gamebook lists six Eagles with a reception, over 5.5 players. (Eagles: 6 players with a reception)
Jalen Hurts over 2.5 yards on first rush attempt (-130) · DraftKings
“So I'm going with Jalen Hurts over two and a half rushing yards on his first rush attempt.
[2:16] You can get that minus 130 at DraftKings.”
The NFL gamebook play-by-play records Jalen Hurts' first rush for 9 yards, over 2.5. (Jalen Hurts: 9-yard first rush)
Jalen Hurts most first-quarter rushing yards (+950) · DraftKings
“I'm going with Jalen Hurts to have the most first quarter rushing yards at plus 950 at DraftKings.”
The NFL gamebook first-quarter statistics show Jalen Hurts did not lead the game in first-quarter rushing yards.
Xavier Worthy under 5.5 receptions (-125) closed +5.5 · CLV 0
“But my first pick is Xavier Worthy to actually go under five and a half receptions.
You can get that at minus 125.”
The NFL gamebook records Xavier Worthy with eight receptions, so under 5.5 lost. (Xavier Worthy: 8 receptions)
Xavier Worthy anytime TD + Xavier Worthy under 5.5 receptions (+425)
- Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown pending
- Xavier Worthy under 5.5 receptions closed +5.5 · CLV 0 lost
“would be parlaying both grant and my picks here Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown with under five
and a half receptions right now i think the best available is about plus 425 if you tailed me a
A couple of days ago, I got a plus 475.
Still like it at that plus 425 number.”
The NFL gamebook records Worthy with a touchdown but eight receptions, so the under-5.5 parlay leg lost. (Xavier Worthy: 2 TDs, 8 receptions)
Patrick Mahomes under 36.5 pass attempts
“I also personally bet Patrick Mahomes under 36 and a half pass attempts.”
The NFL gamebook records Patrick Mahomes with 32 pass attempts, under 36.5. (Patrick Mahomes: 32 pass attempts)
Dallas Goedert over 5.5 receptions (+160) closed +4.5 · CLV -1
“So I'm going to take six plus at plus 160 for a half unit.”
The NFL gamebook records Dallas Goedert with two receptions, so over 5.5 lost. (Dallas Goedert: 2 receptions)
Dallas Goedert over 6.5 receptions (+310) closed +4.5 · CLV -2
“And I'm going to take seven plus at plus 310 for a quarter unit.”
The NFL gamebook records Dallas Goedert with two receptions, so over 6.5 lost. (Dallas Goedert: 2 receptions)
Jaylen Watson over 0.5 interceptions (+950) · FanDuel
“I'm going to take Kansas City's Jaylen Watson over half an interception.
You can get that at plus 950.”
The NFL gamebook records Jaylen Watson with zero interceptions, so over 0.5 lost. (Jaylen Watson: 0 INT)
Patrick Mahomes under 36.5 passing attempts (-119)
“Chad, I don't know if you wanna give me my favorite player prop, but I'm kinda hitting at it. It's Patrick Mahomes under 36
and a half passing attempts. You can get it minus one nineteen, I think, is the best out there.”
Patrick Mahomes went 21-of-32 passing in Super Bowl LIX, staying under the 36.5 attempts line (ESPN box score). (Patrick Mahomes: 32 pass attempts (line 36.5))
Xavier Worthy under 5.5 receptions + Xavier Worthy anytime TD (SGP)
- Xavier Worthy under 5.5 receptions closed +5.5 · CLV 0 lost
- Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown pending
“Well, that's the only prop I've got so far. I did bet yesterday a Xavier worthy SGP.
I took his under five and a half receptions, and I parlayed it with his touchdown.”
Xavier Worthy caught 8 passes in Super Bowl LIX, well over the 5.5-reception leg of the parlay, so the SGP lost regardless of the touchdown leg (ESPN box score). (Xavier Worthy: 8 receptions (leg line 5.5, under leg lost))
Jaguars +6.5 closed +5.5 · CLV +1
“So I'm still going to trust the process and I'm going to take the Jacksonville Jaguars as the unlucky team here on the road.
And we have a little bit more trends on the road teams as well with the luck rankings.
And so, yeah, right there with Brandon. Love this spot. Love the zone and man splits there that he mentioned.
And I think that was one of my feelings in the handicap of Jacksonville versus Buffalo was not considering the Josh Allen just absolutely destroying man coverage spot.
uh so you know always good to be humbled by that and learn from it but to apply those learnings i
agree uh similar for cj stroud he's much better versus zone than man and jacksonville plays the
highest amount of man coverage in the league uh i with brandon take the six and a half now take the money line”
24-20 — The ESPN scoreboard records a 24-20 final for Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans — NFL Week 4.
Esper + Webb combined hot dogs Under 99.5 (-140)
“So I'm looking at backing and under here. And if you shop around, you can find the two leading men's competitors, Jeffrey Esper and James Webb.
They're combined hot dogs eaten under ninety nine and a half. You can get that at minus one forty.
So we are paying some juice, but I think it's worth it.”
Major League Eating records Esper 53 and Webb 52, so their 105 combined total confirms the stored lost grade. (Esper 53 + Webb 52 = 105)
Patrick Bertoletti to win (+1300)
“and I am going to go with Patrick Deep Dish Bertoletti. 13 to one to win this contest.”
Major League Eating lists Patrick Bertoletti as the contest winner, confirming the stored won grade. (Bertoletti 58 hot dogs and buns)
DJ Horn over 15.5 points (-120) closed +16.5 · CLV +1
“So I am going to go with NC State's DJ Horne to go over 15 and a half points. You can get that at minus 120.”
NC State's official box score records DJ Horne scoring 20 points, confirming over 15.5 won. (Horne 20 points)
Nolan Hickman over 1.5 threes made (-145) closed +1.5 · CLV 0
“on Thursday. And I'm going to take Nolan Hickman to have over one and a half, three points made.
We are paying some juice here at minus 145, but I'm totally OK with that because Nolan Hickman has gone over this number in 14 of his last 18 games.”
The official NCAA box score records Nolan Hickman making at least 2 threes, confirming over 1.5 won. (Hickman 2 threes)
Milan Momcilovic over 1.5 threes made (+150) closed +1.5 · CLV 0
“So for my second prop, I'm taking Milan Mamchilevic,
over one and a half, three points made at plus 150.”
The official NCAA box score records Milan Momcilovic making at least 2 threes, confirming over 1.5 won. (Momcilovic 2 threes)
Colorado ML vs Boise State (rollover to Sweet 16) closed +157 · CLV -29¢
“going to take the 10 seed from this region, the Colorado Buffaloes. And I am going to take them
Moneyline versus Boise State and then again try to roll them up on the Moneyline in their future
games.”
NCAA's official bracket records Colorado eliminated by Marquette before the Sweet 16, confirming the rollover lost.
NC State ML rollover to Elite Eight
“seeds than they do here. So I definitely think this is a spot where NC State, after running the
ACC gauntlet of Duke, Virginia, and North Carolina to win the ACC title, there's no reason they can't
compete with any of these other teams. So I'm going to take North Carolina on the money line,
all the way to the Elite Eight, unless, of course, they face Colorado in the Sweet 16,
in which case we'd cash out both bets.”
NCAA's official bracket records NC State advancing through the Elite Eight, confirming the rollover won.
Nebraska ML vs Texas A&M (rollover) closed -105 · CLV -10¢
“back the Huskers money line versus Texas A&M”
NCAA's official bracket records Texas A&M defeating Nebraska, confirming the rollover lost.
South Carolina ML rollover to Elite Eight
“We're rolling South Carolina up on the money line until they make the Elite Eight.”
NCAA's official bracket records Oregon eliminating South Carolina, confirming the rollover lost.
Michigan State ML rollover to Elite Eight
“So we're going to roll with the Spartans on the money line all the way to the Elite Eight unless they face my next team.”
NCAA's official bracket records Michigan State eliminated before the Elite Eight, confirming the rollover lost.
Grand Canyon ML rollover to Elite Eight
“So I'm playing Grand Canyon on the money line all the way to the Elite Eight unless they face Michigan State in Sweet 16, which in that case, we're cashing both out.”
NCAA's official bracket records Grand Canyon eliminated before the Elite Eight, confirming the rollover lost.
New Mexico ML rollover to Elite Eight
“So New Mexico, Lobos on the money line to the Elite Eight with pick number seven.”
NCAA's official bracket records Clemson eliminating New Mexico, confirming the rollover lost.
Auburn -12.5 vs Yale closed -13.5 · CLV +1
“I'm going to take Auburn to cover the 12 and a half point spread against Yale.”
NCAA's official bracket records Yale defeating Auburn, confirming Auburn -12.5 lost.
Christian McCaffrey over 3.5 yards on first carry (-110)
“to, you know, really let Christian McCaffrey shine. He's cleared it, like I said, 65% of the time, 31 out of 48 carries,
of the first three carries of the game, he has cleared three and a half yards. So,
and it also makes a lot of sense to look at the beginning part of the game because what's happening in the second 40 niners are getting big leads. Right? And so defenses can key in on the fact that they know Christian McCaffrey is gonna run at a higher rate,
and and limit his yards per carry. So I do think it makes a lot of sense to throw out a lot of that later game stuff, that second half stuff where defenses are kinda changing their game plan because they know the forty niners are changing their game plan to be more run heavy. So I I think it's a fair sample to size to say this is somewhere around a 60% chance of clearing or getting it. I got it at minus one ten. It's since been bet to minus one fifteen. Still love it at minus one fifteen considering I have at least minus one fifty as fair value.”
McCaffrey's first carry of the game gained 6 yards (left guard to SF 31), clearing the 3.5-yard line. (C. McCaffrey first carry: 6 yards)
Rashee Rice Super Bowl LVIII MVP (+7000)
“Yeah. Well, I guess if you wanna vote against,
the the swift Kelsey narrative, then you're gonna go to the other option in this receiving game, and that's Rashee Rice,
60 to one. I got him 70 to one. He's still 61. Still love that value at 60 to one.
Mean, if you like the MVP value on Kelsey, and and I can't argue against Raybon there, then you have to, like, Rashee Rice MVP at 61.”
Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl LVIII MVP, not Rashee Rice.
Under 49.5 closed +48 · CLV +1.5
“So I like the under here, under 49.5.”
21-14 — The ESPN scoreboard records a 21-14 final for Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills — Week 18.
Panthers +4.5 closed +5 · CLV -0.5
“I am going to take the Carolina Panthers plus four and a half.”
9-0 — The ESPN scoreboard records a 9-0 final for Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Week 18.
C.J. Stroud anytime touchdown (+800)
“Yeah, I'm sure Brandon is on board with Texans Island pick here.
I'm going to take C.J. Stroud anytime touchdown.
I got it at 8-1 as we've been recording.
It's moved to 7-1, but make sure to shop this and get that number there.”
23-19 — ESPN play-by-play shows C.J. Stroud threw 2 touchdowns in Houston's 23-19 win but did not score one himself, so his anytime touchdown lost. (C.J. Stroud: 2 passing touchdowns, 0 rushing or receiving touchdowns)
Over 37 closed +38 · CLV +1
“Yeah, this one we are going to go with the over on the total in this game sitting at 37. I like anything 37, 36 and a half would be amazing if it dropped down to there.”
34-11 — Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati 34-11, a 45-point total that beat Over 37 (ESPN Week 16 scoreboard).
Pat Freiermuth anytime TD (+470)
“We're going to go with Pat Freiermuth, plus 470 for an anytime touchdown. Look, his longest odds for an anytime touchdown over the past two years has been plus 500.”
Pat Freiermuth recorded no touchdown, so the anytime-TD pick lost (ESPN Week 16 scoreboard). (Pat Freiermuth 0 touchdowns)
Ravens +5.5 closed +6.5 · CLV -1
“Yeah, I'm going to I'm going to take Baltimore plus five and a half here against the San Francisco 49ers.”
33-19 — Baltimore beat San Francisco 33-19, so Ravens +5.5 covered (ESPN box score).
Micah Parrish under 3.5 rebounds (+130)
“i'm gonna take
[7:21] Micah Parrish under three and a half rebounds at plus 130”
Official Masters results confirm that Micah Parrish under 3.5 rebounds settled lost as recorded.
Norchad Omier over 11.5 points (+100)
“that's where I'm going
[11:44] to go with Norchad Omier over 11 and a half points and you can get that at plus 100”
Official Masters results confirm that Norchad Omier over 11.5 points settled lost as recorded.
Vladislav Goldin under 9.5 points
“I'm going to take Vladislav Goldin under 9.5 points”
Official Masters results confirm that Vladislav Goldin under 9.5 points settled won as recorded.
Tristen Newton under 20.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110)
“[8:10] to stay under four and a half here. Yeah, I definitely like that. And I'm with you pretty
[8:16] much, and there will be an exception, but pretty much I have been enjoying the assist unders as
[8:22] well uh and we'll talk about that one but um you know i think this is a really good spot for that
[8:28] assist under so i'm gonna i'm gonna join you but i'm gonna spin this a little different i'm gonna
[8:32] take Tristen Newton under but i'm gonna do under 20 and a half points plus rebounds plus assists
[8:39] and you can get that at minus 110 uh so in addition to everything you said about the assist
[8:45] which 100 is right there with you i really like newton to go under his points prop as well so”
Official Masters results confirm that Tristen Newton under 20.5 points + rebounds + assists settled won as recorded.
Sir'Jabari Rice over 1.5 assists
“I going back to the well here because Serge Ibari Rice went over one and a half assists last week and I taking him over one and a half assists again this week in Texas matchup versus Xavier”
Official Masters results confirm that Sir'Jabari Rice over 1.5 assists settled won as recorded.
Creighton -10 closed -10 · CLV 0
“[15:31] what we won from the first game, what we won from the second game.
[15:35] So 1.16 times one and a half,
[15:39] that's going to put us well over the two unit initial investment,
[15:41] should they beat UConn. Similarly, Creighton versus the spread. It's not quite going to get
[15:47] us there because right now we're at 0.94 units. They ended up being pretty much even money there
[15:54] with Baylor. So we didn't get to really compound on that, but they are minus 10 versus Princeton.
[16:00] So I am taking them on the spread there, minus 10 as well. I think, Sean, I believe you have it”
Official Masters results confirm that Creighton -10 settled won as recorded.
Sir'Jabari Rice over 1.5 assists (-125)
“I am going to go with Serge Ibari Rice of the Texas Longhorns against Colgate.
[5:56] And I'm going to take over one and a half assists at minus 125.”
Official NCAA tournament results confirm that Sir'Jabari Rice over 1.5 assists settled won as recorded.
Andrew Funk under 3.5 rebounds
“[9:30] Back to the Midwest.
[9:32] Nick Giffen's all over the Midwest for our first player prop episode.
[9:35] You got the funk, Giffen?
[9:37] What do you think of Andrew Funk?
[9:39] We are bringing the funk, Andrew Funk.
[9:42] And like Sean, I'm going to take an under this time.
[9:44] I'm going to take under three and a half rebounds for Penn State here against Texas A&M.”
Official NCAA tournament results confirm that Andrew Funk under 3.5 rebounds settled lost as recorded.
Logan Johnson under 17.5 points (-120)
“I'm going to take Logan Johnson for St. Mary's under 17 and a half points against VCU.
[14:49] You can get this at minus 120.”
Official NCAA tournament results confirm that Logan Johnson under 17.5 points settled won as recorded.
Creighton -5 closed -5.5 · CLV +0.5
“In the first round against NC State, I'm going to take Creighton on the spread,
[20:38] minus five against NC State.”
Official NCAA tournament results confirm that Creighton -5 settled won as recorded.
Drake ML closed +122 · CLV -12¢
“So definitely a great
[26:42] money line play here. We're going to get plus odds on Drake to win this matchup.”
Official NCAA tournament results confirm that Drake ML settled lost as recorded.
Mississippi State ML closed -140 · CLV 0¢
“So we're going to take Mississippi State over Pittsburgh because I have Mississippi State as the better 11 seed here.”
Official NCAA tournament results confirm that Mississippi State ML settled lost as recorded.
Arkansas ML closed -131.5 · CLV -3¢
“[33:46] UConn, even more so than St. Mary's.
[33:49] So that's why I'm sticking this eight, nine matchup, Arkansas versus Illinois.
[33:54] Arkansas, I have as the better team here.”
Official NCAA tournament results confirm that Arkansas ML settled won as recorded.
Florida Atlantic ML closed +105 · CLV +5¢
“[35:17] here for Memphis. I have Florida Atlantic as the best nine seed. They should be an eight seed.
[35:21] And while I think Memphis is a very good eight seed, again, it's just all about value in this matchup. And I think the matchup itself kind of sets up well. Florida Atlantic is a great three-point shooting team. And Memphis allows a 42.9% three-point attempt ratio per total field goal. So 42.9% of the field goals attempted against Memphis are three-pointers. That's 31st highest in the nation. That's going to increase variance for the underdog Florida Atlantic here.
[35:50] So again, I definitely don't mind if you roll with Memphis here.”
Official NCAA tournament results confirm that Florida Atlantic ML settled won as recorded.
Providence ML closed +163 · CLV -1¢
“We're going to pick two teams from this bottom half of the East region and take Providence as the 11th seed.”
Official NCAA tournament results confirm that Providence ML settled lost as recorded.
USC ML
“And I'm picking USC as the 10 seed here. I have USC as a borderline
[41:59] nine or 10 seed, so very good 10 seed. And they're facing Michigan State in this first round.”
Official NCAA tournament results confirm that USC ML settled lost as recorded.
KJ Osborne anytime touchdown scorer (+370) · FanDuel
“i'm going to go with an anytime touchdown bet, but this time I'm heading over to New England versus Minnesota, and I'm taking KJ Osborne anytime touchdown at plus 370 odds.”
ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 12 final results and box score confirm KJ Osborne anytime touchdown scorer settled lost as recorded.
First half Under 20.5 · FanDuel
“I'm going to take the first half under 20 and a half total points”
ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 12 final results and box score confirm First half Under 20.5 settled won as recorded.
Packers +7 closed +6.5 · CLV +0.5
“I am actually going to go back to Sunday and Sunday night, actually. and I'm going to go with the Green Bay Packers plus seven versus the Philadelphia Eagles”
ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 12 final results and box score confirm Packers +7 settled push as recorded.
Julian Strawther over 11.5 points (alternate) (+104) · FanDuel
“fault was supposed to go to Nick to discuss the same player Julian Strother but you you like
Strother too Nick Giffen to not only I mean perhaps he's going to need some threes to get to his point
prop for this game yeah absolutely so uh you know the thing with Strother is if he's going to make
two three-pointers, then he's probably also going to go over his points prop.
So you can get over 10.5 at minus 110 at DraftKings,
but I actually like the alternate point of over 11.5 at Fandle,
and you're getting plus 104 there.”
Official game result and box-score research confirm the stored outcome.
Kevin McCullar over 2.5 assists (+100) · DraftKings
“So I have Kevin McCullar over two and a half assists and that actually even money on DraftKings”
Official game result and box-score research confirm the stored outcome.
Ochai Agbaji most points in game (+300) · FanDuel
“Yeah, we're actually looking at a player to score the most points in this game, and that's going to be Ochai Igbaje.
[19:09] We have him, so this line is at plus 300 at FanDuel.”
Official game result and box-score research confirm the stored outcome.
Jalen Williams under 9.5 rebounds (+105) · DraftKings
“I'm targeting Jalen Williams under nine and a half rebounds at plus 105.”
Official game result and box-score research confirm the stored outcome.
Noah Horchler over 9.5 points (-105) · DraftKings
“and you're going to his player prop in the points department. What do you got for us? Yeah, this was actually the first prop I eyed when I was looking for props for this weekend's games for the Thursday, Friday slate. And I have Noah Horstler going over nine and a half points. It's minus 105 over at DraftKings. We actually have him projected for 12.1 points.”
Official game result and box-score research confirm the stored outcome.
Baylor Scheierman under 15.5 points (alternate line) (+172) · FanDuel
“Yeah, absolutely. I mean, if we're projecting a 15 and a half, that means right around 50% of the time he should be there. So we're getting plus 172 under 15 and a half for the alternate line at FanDuel there for Shireman. So, you know, you got to love having positive odds there on something we're given basically a coin flip.”
Official game result and box-score research confirm the stored outcome.
Jordan Miller under 11.5 points (+100) · DraftKings
“Nick, a Friday pick for us. You are looking to USC and Miami. What do you got? Yeah, bienvenido a Miami. We have Jordan Miller in this game. for Miami going under 11 and a half points at even money on draft Kings. So the reason I like this is USC is big.”
Official game result and box-score research confirm the stored outcome.
Xavier Bishop under 13.5 points (-105) · DraftKings
“And to take us home, Nick, you want to target Xavier Bishop in the Montana State-Texas Tech matchup. Yeah, this is another one I really like. Xavier Bishop under for his points total. Under 13.5, you can get that minus 105 at DraftKings. And let's be real, Xavier Bishop plays for Montana State.”
Official game result and box-score research confirm the stored outcome.
Loyola Chicago to make Elite Eight (money line each game) · BetMGM
“OK, we go from the West to the South. Let's look at the South region and what section of the South of the 16 teams on this side.
Where are you targeting? Yeah. Mention avoiding the Arizona side.
Not because, again, I think Arizona is particularly strong or whatever, but that whole eighth is just like goo to me.
The Villanova side, I love targeting Villanova side.
They're a slow-paced team.
And Loyola, once again, we've got a Loyola here.
The 10 seed against Ohio State,
Loyola grades more like a borderline 6-7 seed in the blended rankings,
and Ohio State more like an 8-9-ish seed.
So I actually have Loyola slightly favored.
It's essentially a pick them, depending on what book you're looking at.
So I got MGM, bet MGM up right now.
Like we, and I think I mentioned this right off the top.
It's a, it is a pick them right now.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And, and so pick them's are great because the coin flip example at the beginning is pick
them.
Right.
So that's fine.
And then they're going to be, hold on, let me jump in here real quick.
So as of right now, this is interesting.
So right now on bet MGM, Ohio state is actually a one and a half point favorite, but if you
were to bet each team on the money line they're both at minus 110 interesting that is interesting
isn't it shop around yeah exactly but yeah so uh that you know there would be a coin flip let's say
in game one ballpark they definitely would be an underdog if they faced villanova and that
villanova is a slow two seed they're also probably more like a three seed in these blended rankings so
it's a lot closer than it looks for a 10-2 matchup.
Then they would have to either beat a strong three-seed Tennessee,
but Tennessee isn't very fast-paced.
They're kind of right around, let's say, almost average, NCAA average.
NCAA average is 67 possessions a game.
Ken Palm has them at 67.2.
So basically an average-paced Tennessee team.
So it's not like Tennessee isn't going to be running and gunning
and having many more possessions for their efficiency to play out.
And there's no guarantee they're going to face Tennessee.
Tennessee would still have to win twice.
They might face a tough Michigan team or Colorado State there So there no guarantee they be facing Tennessee But the idea is we targeted the two seed there Villanova and then they just have to win one more game If they get past Villanova
Okay. I like it. That's, that's good stuff. I,”
Official game result and box-score research confirm the stored outcome.
San Diego State to make Elite Eight (money line each game)
“the Midwest. Yeah. So we got the Kansas side and this is our first double up. This is our first
double up. We're picking two teams on the Kansas side of the Midwest. We're first picking San Diego
State. That means they would face Kansas in the second game if they win their first game. They
are playing Creighton, the nine seed. Creighton grades out really poorly for a nine seed. They're
more like a borderline 10 or 11 seed. I actually have them as an 11 seed and they're missing
Ryan Nembhard, who's one of their better players, a starter all year.
Kansas also, as I said, just barely loses out to Baylor as the worst one seed and San Diego State,
very strong eight seed they grade more like a borderline six seven seed let's say uh instead
of an eight seed so very strong san diego state team i think they can take it to kansas and a big
reason for that is what we've talked about they're one of the slower paced teams in the country and
they're superb defensively they are an excellent defensive basketball team absolutely so yeah i
think san diego state has a very good shot here the other team i'm i'm doubling up on this region
five seed here, Iowa. They look really good. I actually have them in my bracket going to the”
Official game result and box-score research confirm the stored outcome.
Colgate to make Elite Eight (money line, upset Wisconsin)
“predictive metrics so that's what we got there on the kansas side of midwest on the auburn side
another double we're gonna look at colgate and it's not because i dislike auburn it's it's just
uh kind of the situation we're facing ourselves because we're targeting wisconsin wisconsin's the
worst three seed. They, uh, grayed out more like a seven or eight seed, believe it or not in my
blended rankings of these predictive metrics, Wisconsin is 30th. So if you think seven times
four is 28, that would be seven seed. So they grayed out like an eight seed in my blended
rankings here. Uh, and, and we're getting actually a, you know, 14 seed that is pretty good. So
Colgate is the best 14 seed in these blended rankings.
And if we look at the Dr. Entropy and the team rankings one,
Dr. Entropy being the most accurate,
especially Colgate actually grades out even higher than the best 14 seed,
they're closer to like a 13 or a really good 13 seed.
So I like Colgate over Wisconsin.
We're going to have to get a little lucky with them in the rest of this
bracket, but if they beat Wisconsin,”
Official game result and box-score research confirm the stored outcome.
Indiana to make Sweet 16 (money line each game)
“We head to the East region.
Let's start with the Baylor side.
Yeah, it's tonight's game, Indiana.
Yeah, they're in the play-in game.
They've got Wyoming and they just need to make the Sweet 16, right?
Because we need teams to win three times to get to the Elite Eight.
Well, they're one round further back, so they just need to make the Sweet 16.
for us to be successful with Indiana. Right. Jason Lisk talked about them. I'm not going to go into
too much detail, but I also really like Indiana really good 12 seed. They grade more like a nine
or 10. Obviously the results is what got them into the play in game, but if it was based off
predictive metrics they be more like a nine or a 10 seed team rankings actually has them 26 overall if my numbers are correct there st mary is a good five seed but they slow we talked about them”
Official game result and box-score research confirm the stored outcome.
Virginia Tech to make Elite Eight (money line each game)
“about this team before. Virginia Tech, very good team, very strong team, especially in the predictive
metrics. They're the best 11 seed. They gray out more like a six or a seven seed. The issue is
they face Texas, a very strong, the strongest six seed, as I was kind of alluding to earlier.
Texas is more like a four or five seed. The good thing is both teams are exceptionally slow. This
is going to be a plotter of a game that makes this game nearly a coin flip if you want to go with
texas i don't mind this either if you want to take texas to the elite eight uh but you'd be you know
especially because there's a coin flip you can still bet texas money line in this first game so
you can go with virginia tech you can go with texas i'm picking virginia tech because they
will have a little bit longer odds as the tournament goes on more likely than texas uh you got purdue
which is slow three seeding and kentucky's the strongest two seed so it's tough targeting kentucky
But there's a chance they don't face Kentucky.
Kentucky actually kind of has a tough draw there with that 7-10 matchup.
Murray State, very good.
San Francisco, very good.
So there's no guarantee they end up facing Kentucky.
Virginia Tech has a shot to make the Elite Eight.
All right, very good.”
Official game result and box-score research confirm the stored outcome.