Guest · 29-55-1 on settled picks
| League | prop | futures | spread | moneyline | total | parlay | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBB | 12-7+23% | 1-18-90% | 3-3-5% | 2-7-58% | — | — | 18-35-34% |
| NFL | 6-10+11% | 0-1 | 2-2 | — | 2-1 | 0-2 | 10-16-2% |
| Other | — | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | 1-4+180% |
“you can even get the Wolfpack if you want to play them on the spread at plus one and a half in some spots. [11:19] Or you can get a minus 108 on the money line. [11:21] I'm fine. [11:22] Either way, you want to do that in the first round.”
“I actually have Arkansas at almost a 17 point favorite and you get, [14:50] you can get 15 and a half out there in the market.”
“You could even take St. John's instead of covering the spread in the first round against Northern Iowa, Moneyline in the first round and then Moneyline against Kansas and then Moneyline against Duke.”
“So I'm taking them on the money line in the first round, right? [24:29] I think I have them about minus 240 and there's minus 225s out there. [24:34] There's even a minus 210. [24:35] But I like them on the money line in the first round.”
“So, you know, I have UCF at plus 195 and there's plus 205s out there at DraftKings. [26:16] So that's an attractive price. [26:17] So I just have this as a value for UCF.”
“But I'm picking Tennessee in that side of the bracket because I think Tennessee is a very strong six seed. [34:03] And I think they're going to be able to give Iowa State a run for their money.”
“I'm gonna take them because plus 475 against Vanderbilt [39:42] is a little bit of value by my numbers here”
“So you can money line Texas A&M versus St. Mary's, money line them versus Houston.”
“I'm going A.J. Barner, third quarter touchdown at 12 to one. [17:00] So we'll put 130 bucks on that.”
A.J. Barner's 16-yard TD came in the 4th quarter (13:24), not the 3rd quarter.
“I'm going Cooper Cup first reception yards under 10 and a half. [18:19] It's minus 120 odds at DraftKings. [18:21] And this is my big bet.”
NE 13, SEA 29 — Cooper Kupp: 61 receiving_yards vs under 10.5; busts. (Cooper Kupp: 61 receiving_yards)
“you're going with just any defensive player to win MVP. Yeah. It's 13 to one odds at [20:18] DraftKings.”
MVP went to RB Kenneth Walker III (offense), not a defensive player.
“And I have value on Jeffrey Esper at plus 275. I have his fair odds right around plus 225. So multiple books have this. DraftKings has the best price at plus 275.”
Joey Chestnut competed and won his 17th title with 70.5 dogs; Esper did not win. (Chestnut won; Esper 2nd tier)
“Mickey Sudo's plus 130 on the money line. I like both of those. Again, tracking the results over the past year”
In the cross-gender head-to-head prop, Nick Wehry out-ate Miki Sudo (transcribed 'Mickey Sudo') 41.75 to 33 hot dogs at the 2025 Nathan's contest, so Sudo's moneyline lost. (Wehry 41.75, Sudo 33 hot dogs)
“And then when you're getting a plus one and a half dog spread, I think you got to take that as well at minus 115. So either Mickey pseudo line that you want to take, whether it's the spread or the money line against Nick Weary, I like that one.”
Sudo's +1.5 spread still fell short: 33 dogs + 1.5 = 34.5 vs. Wehry's 41.75. (Wehry 41.75 vs Sudo 33 (+1.5 = 34.5))
“So I'm going to roll Texas over on the money line from [10:19] the first four all the way to the sweet 16 as my first pick.”
Texas lost 86-80 to Xavier in the First Four, so the moneyline rollover to the Sweet 16 busted immediately. (Xavier 86, Texas 80 (First Four))
“ucla on the money line from the first round [11:45] to the Elite Eight as my second pick here in the Midwest region.”
UCLA beat Utah State then lost to Tennessee 67-58 in the second round, never reaching the Elite Eight. (Tennessee 67, UCLA 58 (Round of 32))
“And I going to bet on Purdue the number four seed and Clemson the number five seed [15:06] to cover the spread in their first round game.”
Purdue beat High Point 75-63 (closing spread roughly Purdue -7.5 to -8.5), a 12-point margin that clears the spread — Purdue covers. (Purdue 75, High Point 63 (Purdue favored ~-8))
“And I going to bet on Purdue the number four seed and Clemson the number five seed [15:06] to cover the spread in their first round game.”
No. 12 seed McNeese State upset No. 5 seed Clemson 69-67 outright — Clemson fails to cover any spread since they lost the game. (McNeese 69, Clemson 67)
“I was able to get them on the money line at minus 182, so that is my play here.”
North Carolina beat San Diego State in the First Four but lost to Ole Miss 71-64 in the Round of 64; never reached the Sweet 16. (Ole Miss 71, UNC 64 (Mar 21, 2025))
“Moneyline roll them over versus Michigan State, and then Moneyline roll them over again to [20:50] the Elite.”
Marquette lost 75-66 to No. 10 New Mexico in the first round; rollover busts immediately. (New Mexico 75, Marquette 66 (Mar 21, 2025))
“we'll Moneyline rollover Kansas all three games from the first round to the [22:35] Elite Eight.”
Kansas lost 79-72 to No. 10 Arkansas in the first round; rollover busts immediately. (Arkansas 79, Kansas 72 (Mar 20, 2025))
“So we Moneyline rolling over VCU the VCU Rams from the first round to the Elite Eight”
VCU lost 80-71 to BYU in the first round; rollover busts immediately. (BYU 80, VCU 71 (Mar 20, 2025))
“So we're going to play St. Mary's on the money line again from round one to the Elite Eight to complete the eight picks for the 2025 Giffen Guide to March Madness.”
Saint Mary's beat Vanderbilt then lost 80-66 to Alabama in the Round of 32; never reached the Elite Eight. (Alabama 80, Saint Mary's 66 (Mar 23, 2025))
“it is over five and a half Eagles players to record a reception.”
Six distinct Eagles recorded receptions, over 5.5. (Smith, Brown, Dotson, Barkley, Goedert, Wilson)
“So I'm going with Jalen Hurts over two and a half rushing yards on his first rush attempt. [2:16] You can get that minus 130 at DraftKings.”
PHI 40, KC 22 — Jalen Hurts: 72 rushing_yards vs over 2.5; covers. (Jalen Hurts: 72 rushing_yards)
“I'm going with Jalen Hurts to have the most first quarter rushing yards at plus 950 at DraftKings.”
Saquon Barkley (19 first-quarter rushing yards on 8 carries) out-rushed Jalen Hurts (15 first-quarter rushing yards on 4 carries, incl. his 1-yard TD) in Q1 of Super Bowl LIX; Hurts did not have the most. (Q1 rushing: Barkley 19 yds vs Hurts 15 yds)
“But my first pick is Xavier Worthy to actually go under five and a half receptions.”
PHI 40, KC 22 — Xavier Worthy: 8 receptions vs under 5.5; busts. (Xavier Worthy: 8 receptions)
“would be parlaying both grant and my picks here zavier worthy anytime touchdown with under five”
Parlay busts: Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown — manual; Xavier Worthy under 5.5 receptions +5.5 — lost.
“I also personally bet Patrick Mahomes under 36 and a half pass attempts.”
Mahomes threw 32 pass attempts, under 36.5. (Mahomes 21/32, 257 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT)
“plus at plus 160 for a half unit.”
PHI 40, KC 22 — Dallas Goedert: 2 receptions vs over 5.5; busts. (Dallas Goedert: 2 receptions)
“And I'm take seven plus at plus 310 for a quarter unit.”
PHI 40, KC 22 — Dallas Goedert: 2 receptions vs over 6.5; busts. (Dallas Goedert: 2 receptions)
“I'm going to take Kansas City's Jalen Watson over half an interception.”
Jaylen Watson recorded 0 interceptions in Super Bowl LIX. (Watson: 0 INT)
“and a half passing attempts. You can get it minus one nineteen, I think, is the best out there.”
Patrick Mahomes attempted 32 passes in Super Bowl LIX, staying under the 36.5 line.
“I took his under five and a half receptions, and I parlayed it with his touchdown.”
Parlay busts: Xavier Worthy under 5.5 receptions +5.5 — lost; Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown — manual.
“So I'm still going to trust the process and I'm going to take the Jacksonville Jaguars as the unlucky team here on the road.”
HOU 24, JAX 20 — Jacksonville Jaguars margin -4 vs line +6.5; covers.
“They're combined hot dogs eaten under ninety nine and a half. You can get that at minus one forty. So we are paying some juice, but I think it's worth it.”
At the 2024 Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest, Geoffrey Esper (53) and James Webb (52) combined for 105 hot dogs and buns, well over the 99.5 line. (Esper 53 + Webb 52 = 105 combined)
“and I am going to go with Patrick Deep Dish Bertoletti. 13 to one to win this contest.”
Patrick Bertoletti won the 2024 men's Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest with 58 dogs. (Bertoletti 58, Esper 53, Webb 52)
“So I am going to go with NC State's DJ Horn to go over 15 and a half points. You can get that at minus 120.”
PUR 63, NCSU 50 — DJ Horne: 20 points vs over 15.5; covers. (DJ Horne: 20 points)
“And I'm going to take Nolan Hickman to have over one and a half, three points made.”
GONZ 86, MCN 65 — Nolan Hickman: 3 threes vs over 1.5; covers. (Nolan Hickman: 3 threes)
“So for my second prop, I'm taking Milan Mamchilevic,”
ISU 82, SDST 65 — Milan Momcilovic: 3 threes vs over 1.5; covers. (Milan Momcilovic: 3 threes)
“going to take the 10 seed from this region, the Colorado Buffaloes.”
BOIS 53, COLO 60 — Boise State Broncos lost; moneyline busts.
“So I'm going to take North Carolina on the money line,”
NC State reached the Elite Eight (beat Duke) and advanced all the way to the Final Four. (NC State (11) made Final Four)
“back the Huskers money line versus Texas A&M”
NEB 83, TA&M 98 — Nebraska Cornhuskers lost; moneyline busts.
“We're rolling South Carolina up on the money line until they make the Elite Eight.”
South Carolina lost 87-73 to Oregon in the first round; never reached the Elite Eight. (Oregon 87, South Carolina 73 (R1))
“So we're going to start with the Michigan State Spartans as the nine seed.”
Michigan State lost 85-69 to North Carolina in the round of 32; never reached the Elite Eight. (North Carolina 85, Michigan State 69 (R32))
“So I'm playing Grand Canyon on the money line all the way to the Elite Eight unless they face Michigan State in Sweet 16, which in that case, we're cashing both out.”
Grand Canyon beat Saint Mary's in R1 but lost to Alabama in the round of 32; never reached the Elite Eight. (Lost to Alabama in R32)
“Mexico, Lobos on the money line to the Elite Eight with pick number seven.”
New Mexico lost 77-56 to Clemson in the first round; never reached the Elite Eight. (Clemson 77, New Mexico 56 (R1))
“I'm going to take Auburn to cover the 12 and a half point spread against Yale.”
AUB 76, YALE 78 — Auburn Tigers margin -2 vs line -12.5; busts.
“I got it at minus one ten. It's since been bet to minus one fifteen. Still love it at minus one fifteen considering I have at least minus one fifty as fair value.”
KC 25, SF 22 — Christian McCaffrey: 80 rushing_yards vs over 3.5; covers. (Christian McCaffrey: 80 rushing_yards)
“60 to one. I got him 70 to one. He's still 61. Still love that value at 60 to one.”
Patrick Mahomes won Super Bowl LVIII MVP, not Rashee Rice.
“So I'm right there in line with these guys on the Ravens plus four.”
BAL 10, PIT 17 — Baltimore Ravens margin -7 vs line +4; busts.
“So I like the under here, under 49.5.”
MIA 14, BUF 21 — Combined 35; under 49.5 covers.
“I am going to take the Carolina Panthers plus four and a half.”
CAR 0, TB 9 — Carolina Panthers margin -9 vs line +4.5; busts.
“I'm going to take C.J. Stroud anytime touchdown.”
C.J. Stroud scored a rushing TD vs Colts; anytime TD hits. (1 rush TD)
“Yeah, this one we are going to go with the over on the total in this game sitting at 37. I like anything 37, 36 and a half would be amazing if it dropped down to there.”
PIT 34, CIN 11 — Combined 45; over 37 covers.
“We're going to go with Pat Friermuth, plus 470 for an anytime touchdown. Look, his longest odds for an anytime touchdown over the past two years has been plus 500.”
Pat Freiermuth did not record a TD (no receiving stats) in Steelers' 34-11 win over Bengals. (0 TD)
“Yeah, I'm going to I'm going to take Baltimore plus five and a half here against the San Francisco 49ers.”
SF 19, BAL 33 — Baltimore Ravens margin +14 vs line +5.5; covers.
“i'm gonna take [7:21] micah parish under three and a half rebounds at plus 130”
SDSU 72, FAU 71 — Micah Parrish: 5 rebounds vs under 3.5; busts. (Micah Parrish: 5 rebounds)
“that's where I'm going [11:44] to go with North Chad Omir over 11 and a half points and you can get that at plus 100”
CONN 72, MIA 59 — Norchad Omier: 8 points vs over 11.5; busts. (Norchad Omier: 8 points)
“I'm going to take Vladislav Golden under 9.5 points”
TENN 55, FAU 62 — Vladislav Goldin: 3 points vs under 9.5; covers. (Vladislav Goldin: 3 points)
“take tristan newton under but i'm gonna do under 20 and a half points plus rebounds plus assists”
Newton's points+rebounds+assists totaled 19 (6+6+7), under the 20.5 line. (19 PRA (6 PTS / 6 REB / 7 AST))
“I going back to the well here because Serge Ibari Rice went over one and a half assists last week and I taking him over one and a half assists again this week in Texas matchup versus Xavier”
Sir'Jabari Rice recorded 3 assists in Texas's 83-71 win over Xavier, over the 1.5 line. (16 PTS / 3 AST)
“So I am taking them on the spread there, minus 10 as well.”
Creighton beat Princeton 86-75, an 11-point margin, covering the -10 spread. (Creighton 86, Princeton 75)
“I am going to go with Serge Ibari Rice of the Texas Longhorns against Colgate. [5:56] And I'm going to take over one and a half assists at minus 125.”
TEX 81, COLG 61 — Sir'Jabari Rice: 3 assists vs over 1.5; covers. (Sir'Jabari Rice: 3 assists)
“I'm going to take under three and a half rebounds for Penn State here against Texas A&M.”
Andrew Funk had 4 rebounds for Penn State in the 76-59 win over Texas A&M, over the 3.5 line. (Andrew Funk: 4 REB (0 OREB, 4 DREB) in 35 minutes)
“I'm going to take Logan Johnson for St. Mary's under 17 and a half points against VCU. [14:49] You can get this at minus 120.”
SMC 63, VCU 51 — Logan Johnson: 12 points vs under 17.5; covers. (Logan Johnson: 12 points)
“In the first round against NC State, I'm going to take Creighton on the spread, [20:38] minus five against NC State.”
CREI 72, NCSU 63 — Creighton Bluejays margin +9 vs line -5; covers.
“We can still play them on the money line because it is close enough to a coin flip It might be like minus 120 minus 125 or something like that”
MIZ 76, USU 65 — Utah State Aggies lost; moneyline busts.
“So definitely a great [26:42] money line play here. We're going to get plus odds on Drake to win this matchup.”
MIA 63, DRKE 56 — Drake Bulldogs lost; moneyline busts.
“So we're going to take Mississippi State over Pittsburgh because I have Mississippi State as the better 11 seed here.”
MSST 59, PITT 60 — Mississippi State Bulldogs lost; moneyline busts.
“So that's why I'm sticking this eight, nine matchup, Arkansas versus Illinois. [33:54] Arkansas, I have as the better team here. [33:56] So I'm just going to take them.”
KU 96, HOW 68 — Kansas Jayhawks won; moneyline covers.
“I'm playing Florida Atlantic because I have Memphis as a one, at most one and a half point [36:00] favorite. [36:00] And the market is giving us two and a half points on Florida Atlantic.”
MEM 65, FAU 66 — Florida Atlantic Owls won; moneyline covers.
“We're going to pick two teams from this bottom half of the East region and take Providence as the 11th seed.”
UK 61, PROV 53 — Providence Friars lost; moneyline busts.
“And I'm picking USC as the 10 seed here. I have USC as a borderline [41:59] nine or 10 seed, so very good 10 seed. And they're facing Michigan State in this first round.”
MSU 72, USC 62 — USC Trojans lost; moneyline busts.
“i'm going to go with an anytime touchdown bet, but this time I'm heading over to New England versus Minnesota, and I'm taking KJ Osborne anytime touchdown at plus 370 odds.”
KJ Osborn did not score a touchdown in the Vikings' 33-26 win over the Patriots on Thanksgiving; Jefferson, Hockenson, and Thielen scored for Minnesota. (No TD for Osborn)
“I'm going to take the first half under 20 and a half total points”
CLE 23, TB 17 — Combined 40; under 20.5 busts.
“I am actually going to go back to Sunday and Sunday night, actually. and I'm going to go with the Green Bay Packers plus seven versus the Philadelphia Eagles”
PHI 40, GB 33 — Green Bay Packers margin -7 vs line +7; pushes.
“but I actually like the alternate point of over 11.5 at Fandle, [11:09] and you're getting plus 104 there.”
GONZ 68, ARK 74 — Julian Strawther: 12 points vs over 11.5; covers. (Julian Strawther: 12 points)
“So I have Kevin McCuller over two and a half assists and that actually even money on DraftKings”
DUKE 78, TTU 73 — Kevin McCullar Jr.: 1 assists vs over 2.5; busts. (Kevin McCullar Jr.: 1 assists)
“Yeah, we're actually looking at a player to score the most points in this game, and that's going to be Ochai Igbaje. [19:09] We have him, so this line is at plus 300 at FanDuel.”
In Kansas's 66-61 Sweet 16 win over Providence on March 25, 2022, Remy Martin led all scorers with 23 points; Agbaji scored only 5 points (per CBS Sports and Sports-Reference.com). (Agbaji 5 pts (Martin led with 23))
“I'm targeting Jalen Williams under nine and a half rebounds at plus 105.”
ARK 75, UVM 71 — Jaylin Williams: 10 rebounds vs under 9.5; busts. (Jaylin Williams: 10 rebounds)
“And I have Noah Horstler going over nine and a half points.”
PROV 66, SDST 57 — Noah Horchler: 13 points vs over 9.5; covers. (Noah Horchler: 13 points)
“So we're getting plus 172 under 15 and a half for the alternate line at FanDuel there for Shireman.”
Baylor Scheierman scored 18 points for South Dakota State in a 66-57 loss to Providence, well over the 15.5 under. (18 PTS)
“for Miami going under 11 and a half points at even money on draft Kings. So the reason I like”
USC 66, MIA 68 — Jordan Miller: 6 points vs under 11.5; covers. (Jordan Miller: 6 points)
“Under 13.5, you can get that minus 105 at DraftKings.”
TTU 97, MTST 62 — Xavier Bishop: 12 points vs under 13.5; covers. (Xavier Bishop: 12 points)
“So this isn't one of the ones we're doubling up on. I'm looking at Davidson.”
Davidson lost to No. 2 Michigan State 74-73 in the second round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament — did not make the Elite Eight (NCAA.com).
“And Loyola, once again, we've got a Loyola here.”
No. 10 Loyola Chicago was eliminated in the first round, losing 54-41 to No. 7 Ohio State — did not make the Elite Eight (CBS Sports).
“double up. We're picking two teams on the Kansas side of the Midwest. We're first picking San Diego”
No. 8 San Diego State lost in the first round to No. 9 Creighton 72-69 — did not make the Elite Eight (Sports Reference / Wikipedia).
“best spread line i can find and bet iowa on the spread if they don't cover the spread we lose this”
No. 12 seed Richmond upset No. 5 seed Iowa 67-63 in the NCAA Tournament first round; Iowa neither covered the spread nor won outright, so the pick (which needed Iowa to survive to keep rolling toward the Elite Eight) lost at the first leg. (Richmond 67, Iowa 63)
“another double we're gonna look at colgate and it's not because i dislike auburn it's it's just”
No. 3 Wisconsin defeated No. 14 Colgate 67-60 in the first round on March 18, 2022 — Colgate's upset bid failed (Patriot League / ESPN).
“There a good chance that you know they have to face the other team I picking here which is LSU”
No. 11 Iowa State defeated No. 6 LSU 59-54 in the first round — LSU did not make the Elite Eight (ESPN / Yahoo Sports).
“but I also really like Indiana really good 12 seed”
Indiana beat Wyoming 66-58 in the First Four but then lost to No. 5 Saint Mary's 82-53 in the Round of 64 — did not make the Sweet 16 (ESPN / Inside the Hall).
“you can go with virginia tech you can go with texas i'm picking virginia tech because they”
No. 11 Virginia Tech lost to No. 6 Texas 81-73 in the first round on March 18, 2022 — did not advance to Elite Eight (Virginia Tech Athletics / ESPN).