Emerson Lotzia

Guest · 3-5 on settled picks

Record
3-5
Cash %
37.5%
Net units
-1.56u
ROI
-19.5%
CLV evidence: 3 of 6 supported standalone picks have a pregame quote

3 have calculable CLV from a stated line or price. Headline rates use 0 non-flat moves with audited evidence within 15 minutes of the start; 2 primary flat observations are excluded from the beat rate.

Quote timing: 2 within 15 minutes · 0 15–60 minutes · 0 older than 60 minutes · 1 unverified. Counts include captured quotes without numeric CLV. Parlays and prediction markets are separate. Coverage and missing evidence.

Bankroll

Net units over time, 1 unit staked per pick · 2 settled days
-10+1Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26-1.56u
0Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26-2u

Picks

8 total
Status
Sport
Market
NFL spread
lost
Baltimore Ravens -8.5 (-105)
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast, 2026-09-17 · ·

“[34:26] Emerson, let's start with you. Where do you land on this classic? So definitely not touching that minus 380 money line, but yeah, minus 105 there, eight and a half points by the Ravens. It's their offensive ceiling. I feel like can create a little bit of separation there. I don't know. As long as the Saints don't look like the best team in football for the final two quarters like they did last year. That was an unbelievable comeback. And what was that, Tyler Show? Like with his, what did he throw for over like 400 yards? It's shuck, Emerson. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I don't know how this happened. It shows how much I absolutely pay attention to that team. All I know is they need to give the freaking football to Travis Etienne. Have a freaking game plan for that son of a gun, please. But yeah, I'll lay the points with the Ravens.”

BAL 17, NO 24 — Baltimore Ravens margin -7 vs line -8.5; busts.

NFL spread
lost
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast, 2026-09-17 · ·

“[40:33] holy crap all right yep next game rounds bucks bucks also laying eight and a half Half total sitting at 41 and a half to oh and one teams battle it out as the Browns wrap up their tour of Florida. Baker Mayfield takes on his former team. Always love that angle. Curious to see where you guys land on this one. Another ugly, gross dog that might just be worth an investment. Kendra, I want to say I a lot of what I'm going to nominate this week is going to be me looking at bounce back spots. But this isn't one of them. I think that Baker looks like shit. I think that his prime is over. I think that who we saw last week is who he really is. I think he just caught lightning in a bottle and was he has that type of personality where if you doubt him, I think that he can do something for a hot minute. But I'm not a Baker believer. I think that they have a potential to bounce back here, but it's the Browns. I don't want anything to do with it. And I saw a report this morning from someone. I put it in our notes, but they expect Shador to. yeah, Jason LaConfora said that he expects Shador to start by week three. That's the only thing that makes me a little nervous. I know in my heart of hearts that Deshaun sucks, but I also know that if Deshaun's going balls to the wall, he made like two or three passes last week that I was like, that's the Deshaun that I know. But the overall arching theme is that you suck. So this is something I don't want anything to do with, because I think that these two quarterbacks are about to have a fucking mid off. Yeah. Yeah. I agree with you. I think the only reason Deshaun's starting right now is because ownership's trying to save face or like let's try to get something out of the worst contract in NFL history I don't think Shador offers you like much more but it's something a little more and it doesn't take much to be better than Deshaun Watson right now I would actually uh play the points I'll eat the big number here 100% not touching the minus 455 money line I'm sorry I watched every second of that game last week as you did Kendra against the Jags that is one of the worst football teams and displays of football I have ever seen. The only reason they got that first field goal is because our kickoff coverage, the Jags, was absolute ass. And then we had like second and third stringers in there”

TB 19, CLE 23 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers margin -4 vs line -8.5; busts.

NFL spread
lost
Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast, 2026-09-17 · ·

“[51:07] yeah just got to make drink may keep them uncomfortable I think Pittsburgh can keep this within one possession it does feel like too many points now albeit I know they played the Cooper Rush led offense of the Falcons last week but defense still looked pretty decent So yeah I taking Steelers plus five and a half So the luck rankings are officially out”

NE 20, PIT 3 — Pittsburgh Steelers margin -17 vs line +5.5; busts.

NFL spread
lost
Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 closed -6.5 · CLV 0 · ≤15 min
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast, 2026-09-17 · ·

“[1:01:07] Emerson, can we back the Chargers? Yeah, absolutely, especially with Madison Beer in the stands. Oh, goodness gracious. More cutaways, please, more cutaways. My wife's not home, so I can say that. The number just below that key seven here, folks, And I'm expecting a Chargers response after that ugly opener again with Madison Bear and her big, beautiful eyes watching from the stands. And listen, I'd rather lay six and a half than pay what minus three or five in the money line, whatever it is now. Yeah. So, yeah, go with the fighting. Madison Beers.”

LAC 14, LV 26 — Los Angeles Chargers margin -12 vs line -6.5; busts.

NFL spread
lost
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 closed +2.5 · CLV 0 · ≤15 min
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast, 2026-09-17 · ·

“[1:06:21] When you consider the fact they'll be playing their home games in Orlando, I saw someone tweet out yesterday, 28 of their next 33 games, the Jags will play on the road outside of Jackson. Like let that sink in BK. No other fucking team in the NFL is built like the Jags. Anytime, anywhere, anyone bring it dildo Baggins. And you could suck my white ass buddy, because you know what? The Jags have won and covered their last nine regular season games. freaking horny dating back to week 11 of last season jaguars plus two and a half give it to me and historically historically since the jag started they have played so well in denver”

DEN 20, JAX 13 — Jacksonville Jaguars margin -7 vs line +2.5; busts.

NFL spread
won
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 pregame -4 · CLV +0.5 · timing unverified
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast, 2026-09-17 · ·

“[1:13:41] anywho seattle extra prep time we know how big that is in the nfl and a defense that should give arizona a much tougher test than la did so yeah i'm going seahawks minus three and a half what it is yeah uh week two we've seen 33 teams play after winning outright as a as a touchdown underdog or”

ARI 7, SEA 31 — Seattle Seahawks margin +24 vs line -3.5; covers.

NFL prop
won
Dalton Kincaid anytime touchdown
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast, 2026-09-17 · ·

“Dalton Kincaid anytime touchdown score. Next.”

Dalton Kincaid caught one touchdown pass in the completed Bills–Lions game, satisfying anytime touchdown. (Dalton Kincaid: 1 receiving TD)

Other futures
won
Xander Schauffele top 10 finish (+162)
2026 PGA Championship at Aronimink — second major of the year · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast, 2026-05-12 · ·

“So if I had, then I see what we're doing here. If I had to actually plant my flag on one of those that I had just mentioned, plant my flag, Xander top 10. Okay. And your top 10 plus 162 for Xander, who is always, always hanging around at the end of these primetime events.”

Xander Schauffele finished T7 at -4 (276) at the 2026 PGA Championship at Aronimink, inside the top 10 (ESPN leaderboard).

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