Gilles Gallant

• Kenneth Walker anytime touchdown
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime touchdown
• Drake Maye anytime touchdown

“And I think the main thing, too, the reason why, again, I'm still going to go with Kenneth Walker in this spot because even though A.J. Barner has been effective he's not there's no Jalen Hurts in this offense to kind of vulture like kind of happened in the Super Bowl last year four touchdowns and two playoff games for for KW like again I think with it being the Super Bowl Charbonnet out he's probably going to see his highest snap rate of the year Seahawks are pretty predictable on offense ran the ball at the third highest rate in the NFL during the regular season so if they're expected to win or have a lead in the game I think that should set up well for more opportunities for Kenneth Walker or in general the running offense for the Seahawks but next pick it's our guy JSN I think now I've kind of been happy to see that he's arguably I think the best wide receiver in the NFL right now like even when he's not open he's open like Sam Darwin was kind of made it a priority to target him a 30 percent target share through two playoff games very consistent with what we saw during the regular season with that was around 32 another thing too christian gonzalez i know we talk about like how effective he has been since returning but he's had some issues in coverage and if they're going to be playing man coverage they're 31st in defensive dvoa versus wide receiver one so i would not be shocked if jsn actually scores uh the first touchdown of super bowl 60 now the third pick this bet has kind of been steamed since i bet it i got it around plus 400 when uh the the odds first opened up it's around plus 300 now and that's drake may for an anytime touchdown um scored last week versus the broncos led the nfl in total scrambles second and scrambles per game behind patrick mahomes the other thing too when you look at drake may's splits his scramble rate tends to take a huge jump when he's not being blitzed it's like almost four times compared to when he is being blitzed and the seahawks bottom five and blitz rate per game this season so i think in a potentially trailing game script there's going to be a lot of dropbacks for drake may i think especially in the second half. So I like May to call his own number near the goal line and get the score. I think the shoulder injury is just overblown. So that's around 12 to one. You want to parlay Drake, May JSN and Kenneth Walker.”

Seahawks 29-13 Patriots — Official NFL gamebook confirms the stored Super Bowl TD-parlay result.

“Joe. All right, I'm going to take Drake Maye. It's my favorite touchdown bet of Super Bowl 60. It's too hard to ignore the scramble rate of what we've seen from Drake Maye during the regular season. I think he's just such a big body. He's kind of like a Josh Allen clone. I think he could just bulldoze over some guys to be able to get into the end zone. He scored last week versus the Broncos, a very tough run defense as well. So anything over plus 250, let's take Drake Maye in the spot.”

Seahawks 29-13 Patriots — Official NFL gamebook confirms Maye did not score a touchdown. (Drake Maye touchdowns scored: 0)

“I'm going to recycle a pick from last week, Jake Bobo, uh anytime touchdown anything at 10 to 1 or better he's around 11 to 1 right now at draft kings”

Seahawks 29-13 Patriots — Official NFL gamebook confirms Bobo did not score. (Jake Bobo touchdowns: 0)

“Yeah, I'm going to take Keyshawn Booty. He's around plus 280.”

Patriots 10-7 Broncos — Official Patriots box score confirms Boutte did not score. (Kayshon Boutte touchdowns: 0)

“i'm gonna go with the guy who won it last week uh rashid shaheed uh he's around plus 380”

Patriots 10-7 Broncos; Seahawks 31-27 Rams — Official championship scoring summaries confirm Shaheed did not have the longest TD. (Longest touchdown: Puka Nacua, 34 yards)

“So give me Courtland Sutton around plus 200.”

Broncos 33-30 Bills — Official Broncos result confirms Sutton did not score in the divisional game. (Courtland Sutton touchdowns: 0)

“Joe, who are we looking at in Niners Seahawks? Sure. Normally I take Juwan Jennings in this spot. I don't love him in this matchup. And I get there's no real replacing George Kittle. But if there has been a one-for-one replacement in the Niners offense, I think it's Jake Tongass, the tight end. He scored five touchdowns this year. And in the six games where Kittle has missed time, he has seen a huge uptick in targets. I think what most surprised me is going back through those games, he actually led the Niners in total routes run in those six games. And he was second on the team in targets per route run in time for the team lead in red zone targets. If you go all the way back to week one, like for example, when the Niners faced the Seahawks, Tongass ended up scoring against this defense after Kittle left the game with injury. Now the Seahawks defense, they don't really have a ton of weaknesses. They're first a defensive DVOA versus the pass, but they have given up yardage and touchdowns and tight ends and they rank bottom five and targets catches and yards to the position. So right around plus 350, I think this is a solid spot for Tongass to get another touchdown.”

Seahawks 41-6 49ers — Official Seahawks box score confirms Tonges did not score. (Jake Tonges touchdowns: 0)

“But I'm going to go to the Patriots side. I'm going to take Drake Maye for an anytime touchdown. He's around plus 330.”

Patriots 28-16 Texans — Official Patriots gamebook confirms Maye did not score a touchdown. (Drake Maye touchdowns scored: 0)

“So a great season for Parker Washington Joe who do we like in Bill Jags Well and I don disagree with Sean that the Jags might throw a little bit more but I still think from a running standpoint this is a prime matchup for Travis Etienne and I'm going to take him actually to score two touchdowns. He's around plus 450 for that. I think he's going to be in line for like 20 plus carries, maybe even four plus catches.”

Independent verification agrees: Travis Etienne scored only 1 receiving TD, not the 2+ required, in the Jaguars' 27-24 loss to the Bills.

“all right this is my favorite touchdown bet of the week it is Nico Collins He around plus 155”

Independent verification agrees: Nico Collins had 3 catches for 21 yards and no TD in the Texans' 30-6 win over the Steelers.

“Grant, I'm sure you're pretty sure where I'm going to go with this on the Niners side. Jauan Jennings right now has just been an unreal touchdown run for him. He's around plus one 90, eight touchdowns over the last eight games. I think he's almost matchup proof. He's shown the ability that he can get open and get targets against both man and zone coverages. He's really evolved into a legit wide receiver one in this offense. Obviously a tougher matchup facing the Seahawks, but given his touchdown run and how many times we've given him out on the show, I don't think there's a better choice on the 49ers side at this stage, especially because I'm not certain that George Kittle is back to 100% or if he's going to be at 100% by this game. So I think Jennings is who we want on the 49ers side.”

Independent verification agrees: Jauan Jennings caught 4 passes for 35 yards with no TD in the 49ers' 13-3 loss to Seattle.

“I'm gonna take Sam Darnold around plus 950 obviously there's no rushing touchdowns yet this year for him”

Independent verification agrees: Sam Darnold threw for 198 yards and rushed for 9 yards but did not score a rushing TD in Seattle's 13-3 win.

“Kerner you've kind of laid out this case the last few weeks of why we like to take George Pickens and I'm gonna take it because look I'm not really a contract incentive better for the most part I find a lot of the time you could find an edge every once in a while but most of those incentives are just baked into the odds now but I still think that George Pickens has a little bit of incentive attached because we know he wants that new contract in the offseason and this is the last game for him to make an impression on both jerry jones and other front offices to give him that wide receiver one money and when you look at his stats he has a couple milestones that could lead him to maybe even getting a few more targets uh to get into that kind of elite status he's eight catches away from 100 receptions and he's one touchdown away from 10 those benchmarks to me are important because right now kerner when you look at the the data for nfl there's only two wide receivers that have 100 plus catches and 10 touchdowns that's jackson smithton jigba and amon ross saint brown and when amon ross signed his contract in 2024 he was the highest paid wide receiver in the nfl so i'm banking on pickens to play like there's literally millions of dollars on the line so uh he's around plus 155”

Independent verification agrees: George Pickens had one catch for 9 yards and did not score in the Cowboys' 34-17 loss to the Giants.

“Jaxson Dart is the other one that i like in this game he's around plus 170 he's got nine touchdowns this year”

Independent verification agrees: Jaxson Dart threw two passing TDs but had no rushing TD (5 carries, 32 yards) in the Giants' 34-17 win.

“So the Vikings pass defense as well. It's just been a brick wall for the second half of the season. They're fifth in defensive DVOA versus the pass. Don't give up a lot of passing touchdowns. So I think Clayton Toon is going to struggle, and that could lead to a Vikings defensive special teams touchdown.”

Independent verification agrees: No defensive or special-teams TD was scored by either team in the Vikings' 16-3 win over Green Bay.

“The Packers as well, though, they're alive for a defensive special teams touchdown, especially if J.J.”

Independent verification agrees: The Packers scored no defensive or special-teams TD (only a late field goal) in their 16-3 loss to Minnesota.

“But I'm going to take Jackson Hawes at plus 450.”

Independent verification agrees: Bills beat Jets 35-8; Jackson Hawes had 1 reception for 0 yards and no touchdown.

“A.D. Mitchell at plus 350. I know Brees Hall has been looking good, could get close to 1,000 yards. But I think A.D. Mitchell right now is the guy you want,”

Independent verification agrees: In the Bills-Jets game (Jets' Adonai/A.D. Mitchell) he had 0 receptions and did not score in Buffalo's 35-8 win.

“I'm taking Trey McBride again at plus 160. It's just too good of odds to ignore from me.”

Independent verification agrees: Trey McBride had 5 receptions for 58 yards and no touchdown in the Cardinals' 37-20 loss to the Rams.

“bit more scoring on the Cardinals side. And if that is the case for the Rams, I'm going to take Terrence Fergus again around plus 450.”

Independent verification agrees: Rams TE Terrance Ferguson had no receptions and did not score in the Rams' 37-20 win over Arizona.

“I'm going to take Isaiah Likely. He's around 4-1.”

Independent verification agrees: Isaiah Likely had 2 receptions for 32 yards and no TD in the Ravens' 26-24 loss to the Steelers.

“Yeah, I'm going to go with Amon-Ra St. Brown to start off.”

Independent verification agrees: Amon-Ra St. Brown had 8 catches for 68 yards with no touchdown in the Lions' 23-10 Christmas loss at Minnesota.

“Yeah, so on the Packers side, it might even be more iffier because I'm not sure if Jordan Love is going to play either given the concussion issue in just, again, the short week. So whether if it's Malik Willis or even Clayton Toon, I want short-range targets with high routes run rate, and that's Luke Musgrave right now. He's the last tight end standing. Our guy John Fitzpatrick now out for the year, unfortunately. Josh Wiley's dealing with an injury. And I feel like at least if you're betting Musgrave, like you're getting a guy where there's not a lot of position uncertainty, like with all the moving parts with Packers wide receivers, it's really hard to pinpoint who has like the best matchup, best value in that spot. Whereas at least, you know, Musgrave, he is the guy, a tight end one, you're getting plus 400 or better. It's hard to pass on that.”

Independent verification agrees: Luke Musgrave did not score a touchdown in the Packers' 41-24 loss to Baltimore.

“And then on the Ravens side, Mark Andrews is right now five to one. Now, a lot of this might hinge on if Lamar Jackson does play this week, but I'm okay with this pick”

Independent verification agrees: Mark Andrews caught 4 passes for 28 yards with no touchdown in the Ravens' 41-24 win at Green Bay.

“Oh, I like who you're going with on the Titans. This is my guy here. Who do you like? Yeah, Kamiri Dike, we've given him out quite a few times on this show.”

Independent verification agrees: Chimere Dike did not score in the Saints' 34-26 win at Tennessee (TDs: Estime rush, Olave/Austin rec, Young fumble return).

“I'm taking Taysom Hill. I think this is a great matchup. He's around plus 280. Titans run defense, one of the worst in the NFL. 19 rushing touchdowns allowed, four touchdowns allowed to quarterbacks. Hill actually saw a season high 12 carries last week versus the Panthers. Two were in the red zone. One was a design run play near the goal line. And he audible through to Chris Alave instead. So I just think also the development of Tyler Shuck, I think the Saints, he's looked pretty good over the last few weeks. I think they're going to want to protect him, not let him take some of those design scrambles. Two games left, mostly meaningless. If he's the quarterback of the future, they're going to let Taysom take the carries close to the goal line. So I'm going to take Taysom Hill at plus 280.”

Independent verification agrees: Taysom Hill did not score a rushing or receiving TD in the Saints' 34-26 win at Tennessee.

“Jalen Hurts to me I think is a little chalky, but, again, when you're getting them at plus 145 in a kind of pivotal matchup like this, like we have to take them.”

Independent verification agrees: Jalen Hurts threw a 1-yard TD to Goedert but did not run or catch a TD himself in the Eagles' 13-12 win at Buffalo.

“i think kyle pitts is the guy we want”

Independent verification agrees: Kyle Pitts did not score in the Falcons' 27-24 win over the Rams (Falcons TDs: Robinson rec + rush, Bates INT return).

“But on the Packers side, I'll start with Dontayvion Wicks. He's around plus 425.”

Independent verification agrees: Dontayvion Wicks had 2 catches for 12 yards but no TD in the Packers' 22-16 OT Week 16 loss at Chicago.

“is who i would look for as a packer for the bears i'm gonna go with caleb williams he's around plus 425 he's got three rushing touchdowns this year”

Independent verification agrees: Caleb Williams threw TD passes but did not score a rushing or receiving TD in Bears' 22-16 OT win over Green Bay; passing TDs do not count.

“Chiefs at the Tennessee Titans no Patrick Mahomes of course for the Chiefs. They look pretty banged up as well. So I'm going to go with Kareem Hunt here at plus 185.”

Independent verification agrees: Kareem Hunt did not score a TD in the Titans' 26-9 win over the Chiefs (he was tackled in the end zone for a safety).

“ball and he's the best bet on the Chiefs to score as he is has been most weeks at plus 185 and then for the Titans Tony Pollard at plus 140 he's starting to come on down the stretch”

Independent verification agrees: Tony Pollard ran for 102 yards vs the Chiefs but his lone rushing TD was nullified by an illegal-formation penalty, so he scored no TD.

“that I like from this game on the Panthers side. I'm going to take Bryce Young. He's around plus 700, really seeing his scramble rate take off over the last month. 30% of his total scrambles this season have come in just the last three games. So he's facing a Bucs defense that blitzes at the sixth highest rate in the NFL and his scramble rate takes a massive jump when being blitzed. And the Bucs run defense, obviously they're pretty strong on the inside with Vita Vea, but they've been beaten on outside runs from quarterbacks lately. Like Tyler Shuck, when he scored twice, one of those was on an outside run. Josh Allen, he ran for three touchdowns on this defense. One of them is on the outside. So like I not going to pretend like Bryce Young is going to get tush pushed into the end zone but he can scramble outside of the pocket and this is kind of where it sets up for him So this is arguably like again don want to do the legacy game thing with Trevor Lawrence like we were doing, but this is probably the biggest game of his career. So I'm going to take him at seven to one.”

Independent verification agrees: Bryce Young threw 2 TD passes but had no rushing or receiving TD in the Panthers' 23-20 win; passing TDs do not count.

“We were really high on Gabe Davis in that matchup. And he ended up getting scratched because Josh Palmer got elevated. Well, why don't we just go back to Josh Palmer then? Because Josh Palmer's back. Brandon Cooks is expected back. Josh Palmer's around 5-1. We'll get behind a Josh Palmer touchdown bet. We kind of know the pecking order now with this Bill's office, and Keon Coleman is still seeing his snaps go down. Palmer leads the team in target share against man defenses this year. That's what the Browns play, and four red zone targets. He almost connected four score against the Patriots last week. Denzel Ward, not practicing so far. He could be out this week as well. So the Browns defense has allowed an outside wide receiver to score on them in four straight games, five touchdowns allowed to wide receivers in that span. So let's take Josh Palmer, who's kind of like, you know, he doesn't have a huge average depth of target. You know, I feel like this is kind of the week where he could get a score here at five to one.”

Independent verification agrees: Josh Palmer had just one catch and no TD in the Bills' 23-20 win at Cleveland.

“So taking this kind of roulette train here of what we're going to do, I'm going to take Marvin Mims. He's around 6 to 1.”

Independent verification agrees: Marvin Mims had 3 catches for 26 yards and no TD in the Broncos' 34-20 loss to Jacksonville.

“All right on the Broncos or pardon me on the Jaguar side so I haven't done that this this year on the show I have not bet a guy that had a true what I would call revenge game scenario and this is tim patrick at 10 to 1 this is a full revenge game scenario”

Independent verification agrees: Tim Patrick had 1 catch for 11 yards and no TD in the Jaguars-Broncos game (34-20).

“jill who we're looking at in baltimore new england i think lamar jackson is where we got to go um patriots do tend to play a little bit more man coverage that should set up for lamar to have more scrambling uh i also think we're getting a pretty good price here around three to one at draft kings”

Independent verification agrees: Lamar Jackson left in Q2 with injury and scored no rushing or receiving TD in the Patriots' 28-24 win at Baltimore.

“i'm gonna go with mark andrews uh coming off a dud against the bangles so maybe the market will be a little cautious on him but I actually have this as you know fair value showing a little bit of value on Andrews because I still have his touchdown rate north of 40 percent get him at plus 155 here”

Independent verification agrees: Mark Andrews caught 2 passes for 21 yards with no touchdown in the Ravens' 28-24 loss to New England.

“well let's go with the guy who's at least has a shorter average depth of target you know like I'm going to take Tyler Warren here. He's around plus 250”

Independent verification agrees: Tyler Warren did not score a touchdown in the Colts' 48-27 MNF loss to San Francisco.

“There's usually a bunch of touchdowns. How are we feeling about this one? I mean, I feel like when the Bengals play, the potential for a shootout is just through the roof. It doesn't matter who the opponent is. On the Raven side, I think we have to keep sticking with the tight end. We're going to go with Isaiah Likely here. He's around plus 240. And frankly, it's just the Bengals defense is just horrendous versus tight ends. 15 touchdowns allowed.”

Independent verification agrees: Isaiah Likely did not score in the Ravens' 24-0 win at Cincinnati.

“game in the first one. Mariota back at quarterback. He's been a better quarterback though for Washington this year. Who are we looking at? Well, I'm going to start with him. I think this game is where you want Mariota for his rushing upside. The Giants, they're still going to play a lot of man coverage and single high safety. And the last start that he had was against the Broncos who also play a lot of man and single high but they're obviously just way more effective in defending the run but he had 10 carries two of them were in the red zone whereas now we're playing the giants who are last in defensive DVOA versus the run this year with 17 rushing touchdowns allowed so if you're going to bet on Marcus Mariota I think this is the type of game that you do it you can get around plus 300 Theo Johnson on the Giants I can't quit him especially Canadian brethren like”

Independent verification agrees: Marcus Mariota ran 10 times for 43 yards with no rushing/receiving TD in the Commanders' 29-21 win at the Giants.

“johnson has scored all five of his touchdowns this year with jackson dart a quarterback leads the team with seven end zone targets so i think theo johnson you could say wandale robinson might have the best matchup but i don't love betting wandale ever for touchdowns he's more of a receives you're receiving you know receptions theo johnson who's you want at plus 250”

Independent verification agrees: Theo Johnson had 3 catches for 72 yards and no TD in the Giants' 29-21 loss to Washington.

“The Packers at the Denver Broncos in Denver. Joe, who are we looking at in this one? Looks like it's expected to be a pretty tight, somewhat low-scoring game. Yeah, and because of that, we are getting a little bit of good odds on some certain players here. I'm going to start with Jayden Reed. He's around plus four 50. I think he really caught my eye in week 14 with how explosive he looked. Maybe just because I hadn't seen him since week three, I kind of almost like sometimes forget how involved he could be in this offense ran the third most routes last week, 70% slot rate. So I think that because of that, he's going to likely avoid Patrick's retain, who I think is probably going to shadow Christian Watson or Romeo Dobbs, whoever's kind of on the outside. and when Reed came back that essentially made Dontavian Wicks and Matthew Golden non-factors they combined for 10 snaps total in week 14 so Reed ended up leading the team in target rate for that game and just being a weapon in the slot they really haven't had since Tucker Craft went down I really like the way that he could find a way to score”

Independent verification agrees: Jayden Reed had 5 catches for 55 yards but no TD in the Packers' 34-26 Week 15 loss at Denver.

“So if I'm betting on a Bronco to score, I want short-range targets that excel versus zone defense, and that's Adkins. And the other thing, too, is the Packers' pass defense, if they do have a weakness, it's likely versus tight ends. They've allowed six touchdowns to the position compared to just 10 to wide receivers. So Nate Adkins is 16-1. If he's on the field, they're going to throw to him, I think, when they get near the goal line. So that's who I like for a long shot this week at Nate Adkins, 16-1.”

Independent verification agrees: Nate Adkins did not score in the Broncos' 34-26 Week 15 win (Denver TDs: Bandy, Sutton, Franklin, Humphrey, Harvey).

“Jill, what are we looking at for Vikes Cowboys? I'm going to go with Jordan Addison. He's around plus 220. Cowboys are last in the NFL in wide receiver touchdowns. They're also last in the NFL against the deep ball, and that's where Addison excels with the deep throws, right? So if J.J. McCarthy is finally going to rehabilitate whatever passing issues he had, that should lead to Addison maybe getting more looks and finally getting one that actually is catchable. So I'm going to take Jordan Addison here. Yeah, I mean, he's been a guy we've all been looking forward to getting the end zone”

Independent verification agrees: Jordan Addison did not score in the Vikings' 34-26 SNF Week 15 win (Minnesota TDs: Nailor x2, McCarthy rush, Ham rush).

“uh but let's talk about Colts Jags uh I wrote about him in my anytime touchdown preview that gets published every Sunday morning just before we do action playbook live and it was about Tyler Warren and I'm very high on him again this week uh so I'm going to run him back the Jags they've allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends this year their bottom five and targets catches and yards to the position he leads the team in red zone targets they also play zone and too high safety at top 10 rates which helps tyler warren but i think another reason why i like him here is i think there going to be more short yardage tush push scenarios for him given where daniel jones is with his leg injury I don think he going to try to push that very often So I think if they try to go from a decoy standpoint I think Tyler Warren could be in that spot to do that So he's around plus 200. So that's why I like on the cold side.”

Independent verification agrees: Tyler Warren had 2 catches for 15 yards and no TD in the Colts' 36-19 loss to the Jaguars.

“On the Jags side, I'm going right back to Trevor Lawrence. Five rushing touchdowns this year, similar to Warren, very much being used in short yardage situations near the goal line.”

Independent verification agrees: Trevor Lawrence threw 2 TD passes but scored no rushing/receiving TD vs the Colts.

“I like another tight end that rookie tight end Gunnar Helm he's around six to one”

Independent verification agrees: Gunnar Helm had 1 catch for 8 yards and no TD in the Titans' 31-29 win over the Browns.

“what are you gonna do but love that this week Seahawks Falcons I'm gonna go with a couple guys that don't score many touchdowns or haven't this year Kyle Pitts for the Falcons at plus 230 Seattle's just been really good against running backs so this might be a game where if the Falcons get in the end zone it might not be bijon or tyler algier they've given up only six touchdowns all year two running backs and uh you know 15 combined to wide receivers and tight ends so i do think you want to look for a pass catcher uh obviously if london comes back he a good option but i gonna go with pitts here because Seattle number 29 in DVOA against a tight end position That really been the only on paper weakness for this defense. So now's a better time than ever for Kyle Pitts to get in the end zone.”

Independent verification agrees: Kyle Pitts had 6 catches for 90 yards but no TD in Seattle's 37-9 win at Atlanta.

“now i'm seeing trey mcbride at plus 150 at draft kings i don't know if i could pass on him at that price because usually he's been around like ever since jacoby percent has taken over he's around plus 110 plus 120 so when i'm getting plus 150 that's when i feel like we're in the sweet spot he's just been a monster for touchdown props”

Independent verification agrees: Trey McBride had 5 catches for 58 yards and no TD in Arizona's 45-17 loss to the Rams.

“But I'm going to take Terrance Ferguson with the upside at 10 to one.”

Independent verification agrees: Terrance Ferguson had 1 catch for 3 yards and no TD in the Rams' 45-17 win at Arizona.

“and that's picking specialty he's 17 deep targets this year that's fifth overall in the nfl and i'm not really worried now about cd lamb coming back and swallowing up a lot of those targets because in the four or five games since lamb has returned he's gotten at least nine targets so i think in this game this is a type of matchup where if he's matched up with trent mcduffie it's one of those times where he could win one-on-one on the outside against that type of high quality cornerback so i'm going to take george pickens he's around plus one Yeah, he can win against anybody at this point. I'm going to go with Marquise Brown at plus 450. And the reason I like this is because he's been their third receiver ever since Rasheed Rice came back along with Worthy. But Noah Gray may potentially miss this one. So the Chiefs may have to go to more 11 personnel, more 3-4 wide receiver sets in place of Noah Gray. So with that, that would likely lead to the biggest increase for Marquise Brown. And he has been great in terms of being a touchdown scorer, especially for considering his size and the type of targets he gets. So we know Patrick Mahomes still wants to go deep. This is a defense that tends to play some zone coverage. Marquise Brown has beat zone coverage for touchdowns numerous times this year. He's tied for the team lead with four on the year, and that's in fewer snaps than most of their other receivers. So give me some Marquise Brown at plus 450. I think you can see an uptick here. You parlay Brown with Pickens at plus 150 and Hunt at plus 165.”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“you. Joe, Bengals Ravens, who do you like? Isaiah Likely. Anytime you're looking at touchdown props versus the Bengals, the conversation I think has to start with the opposing tight ends because the Bengals have allowed the most touchdowns to the position. A tight end has scored in five of their last six games. Normally that would lead to Mark Andrews. He's around plus 110, so they are aware of that fact. So I think we take the tight end too. Isaiah Likely, he has scored at least five touchdowns in each of the last two seasons through eight games been a little bit muddled coming back from injury Lamar missing some time he still running the third most routes on the team so I think this is a matchup where he gets his first touchdown of the year”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“Joe, who are you liking Eagles Bears? Another tight end. I'm going Dallas Goddard. He's around two to one.”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“I take Kyle Pitts again at plus 260”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“So I'm going to roll with Colby Parkinson. This guy continues to be underpriced in the market. Is the Rams' lead tight end now with Tyra Higby out? And because, you know, Parkinson and Higby were splitting the early down reps, Parkinson kind of has the most to gain in terms of, you know, usage. Terrence Ferguson, a lot of third down reps. So I think that's why he's still been a little shaky in the touchdown market.”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“Yeah, I'm going to stick with a Bronco myself, but it's going to be Troy Franklin. eight end zone targets already and leads the team in red zone targets as well you would think that would be courtland sutton's role no it's troy franklin in this offense and playing against the team and that plays a lot of man coverage and he leads the team in targets per route run so if it's not broke don't fix it i'm going to keep going with troy franklin”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“who do we like for Patriots giants? Yeah I felt almost compelled to do the booties up pick but I just couldn get there I figured I just keep going with Pop Douglas Demario Douglas again Now he up to six to one I will say his snaps have started to trend down over the last few weeks but I still encouraged encouraging this matchup because we know the Giants are going to play a ton of man coverage and they are susceptible to the deep ball Well, Douglas, he has the highest targets for a run versus man defense and he leads the team in a dot. So if you're going to give me a deep target like him, especially with the way that Drake is throwing the ball, I'm going to take tomorrow. Douglas, it's six to one.”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“So on the Giants side, Theo Johnson right now is around plus 300. That's the guy who I would go with with New York. Jackson Dart, I think he is expected to come back. But even if it's Jameis or, you know, Russ, it doesn't matter. he's just been getting a ton of targets in this offense and he has decent receiver metrics for against man defense and single high safety also another thing too when you look at the splits like the Giants they haven't really played a lot of teams that use man defense a lot outside of the Broncos and the Bears and he led the Giants in receiving in both of those games if you remember he caught that fluky tip touchdown versus the Broncos so Theo Johnson at three to one”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“brock wright right now is around plus 400 to score a touchdown And he is the tight end one in this offense by default”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“And who is the Patriots wide receiver that plays the most snaps in the slot? That is DeMario Douglas. So I will take him at plus 425.”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“Michael Mayer, At 5-1, I think right now for him, he's still playing over 70% of snaps.”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“Who are you looking at to score touchdowns in this one? Well, I will say the Cowboys have gotten a little bit of reinforcements on defense, but not quite. I mean, they did get Malik Hooker back, but not quite in the secondary, right? Like their pass defense is still pretty bad. 30th in defensive DVOA versus the pass with 23 passing touchdowns allowed 17 of those two wide receivers so I'm going to go with DeVonta Smith he's around plus 190 now”

Independent ESPN result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“But here we got the Panthers at the Falcons, divisional matchup. This was a shutout in favor of the Panthers the last time out. Where are you going for touchdowns here? Yeah, I think Drake London has to be the choice on the Falcon side. Four touchdowns over the last two games. And one of the things about the Panthers, playing a ton of zone. Well, London has just an elite targets per route run against zone. There's only two wide receivers that actually exceed him that have run more than 150 routes. And that's Jackson Smith and Jingba and Puka Nakua. And it's difficult to get those guys at plus odds at this point in the season. So the fact that we're getting Drake London here at plus 125, really like that, especially coming off of that 30 to nothing game. I mean, last season, he cooked them for three touchdowns in two games. So I think whether it's J.C. Horn covering him or not, like I'm not really too worried about it. I think Drake London is a good spot here, especially if you can get him at plus odds.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Drake London anytime TD” settled lost.

“I feel like I could use a evergreen video for me from the last three weeks for this Bears team because I'm just going to go back to Olamide Zaccheaus at this point. Every time he's over 4-1, I'm going to keep running it back. 20 targets over the last three games. Minnesota, they blitz a ton, play zone at a top-five rate, along with playing two high safety at the highest rate in the NFL, which is good for Zaccheaus because against both of those defenses, he leads the team in targets per route run. It's also been a little bit of a short-range outlet for Caleb Williams because Williams, and I'm sure you guys know this when you watch the Bears, he is so off schedule and will improvise a lot, And he's just looking for some safety valves a lot of the time. And Zaccheaus has been that position for him. It either that or Odunze But I think Zaccheaus is who we want here especially at plus 450 On the Vikings side I not going to go with Jalen Naylor because now after he scored that touchdown his odds have been steamed for this week But I mean TJ Hawkinson was my initial lean, but now if I'm seeing Josh Oliver back to practice, I love him in this matchup.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Olamide Zaccheaus anytime TD” settled lost.

“He's around 10 to 1. He's only run 33 routes this year, guys. He has three red zone targets and two touchdowns. Like he has the highest targets per run versus man coverage of this season on the Vikings and the Bears play man at a top 10 rate so again he might only get like one to two targets but they're probably going to be end zone targets and with his ability to block he's probably going to be out there uh in those goal line matchups and goal wide stands so a 10 to 1 I love him in this matchup”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Josh Oliver anytime TD” settled lost.

“Jill who do you like for Chargers Jaguars Yeah I mean I haven gotten the Chargers on this show in a few weeks and I feel like now that I gotten them I can not take Oronde Gadsden II in this spot especially when I seeing him over plus 200. There's no way that I can listen to Sean talk about how awesome he is, the Darren Waller comps, and then see him at plus 220 and be like, man, I don't know if I see it, like, especially because Wednesday, that was the big thing, too. He's back full practice on Wednesday and practiced again today. I thought he might have been hurt from an injury from last week against the Steelers. But again, only two touchdowns this year, but just been a beast over the middle for the Chargers. Second highest targets per route run and yards per route run versus zone coverages. Jags play zone at a top 10 rate. They're 22nd in defensive DVOA versus the pass, 24th against tight ends. They've allowed seven touchdowns to the position. So Gadsden, if you can get him over plus 200, grab him right away.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Oronde Gadsden anytime TD” settled lost.

“And it's Jakobi Meyers. He's around plus 245, plus 250. Playing mostly out of the slot with the Raiders, I kind of expect him to slide back into that spot. He only played 44% of snaps in his first game there, but again, only like four days with the team. So I fully expect to see a huge boost in snaps and route participation. He was typically over 90% with the Raiders and even like that last year with the Patriots. And I think he should be pretty familiar with the Chargers defense at this point, playing with the Raiders the last few seasons. the Chargers they play zone and too high safety a lot so that's usually where Myers has actually thrived against with the Raiders and he would usually see a target rate bump compared to when he was playing against man coverage and then of course when you look down the line on this Jaguars receiver standpoint Brian Thomas Jr like he is back at practice but he hasn't really been fully connected with Trevor Lawrence this year he's just not been a good output for a wide receiver this year so Jakobi Meyers it's not like they only gave up like you know a seventh round pick they gave up some good draft currency that I think they expect to use them so anything over plus 250 or probably plus 230 for Jakobi Meyers I love that pick yeah it's it's a hard projection for the Jags”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Jakobi Meyers anytime TD” settled lost.

“jim schwartz led browns defense figured out i mean he scored both games against them last year he probably almost had a touchdown against them earlier this year but then they just went crazy with the wide receivers so mark andrews to me anytime you can get him over plus 200 we he's an auto bet for me on the brown side i was kind of fading him last week but this week i like him uh in the spot i actually took him when they played the ravens last time and that's cedric tillman he's around plus 550 and i bet him in week two when they played him got super lucky uh because he got a touchdown off of a tip pass uh but i still like him again in this matchup because the ravens just like the browns they play a lot of man a lot of single high safety when he came back from injury last week I thought it was really encouraging to see him still play 73% of snaps he saw an end zone target he usually typically sees a bump in targets versus man coverage he caught two touchdowns this season versus man defense so Brown being huge home underdogs even with the weather I think they can be throwing a lot in the second half so I love him in this spot around plus 550 Yeah I think he I think he is sneaky you know whether or not you know he just a guy who I mean Jerry Judy went off last week”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Cedric Tillman anytime TD” settled lost.

“we're running him back all the meat is the Zaccheaus, especially when he's around plus 425 right now.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Olamide Zaccheaus anytime TD” settled lost.

“receivers so i think we run back zakiya here in this spot uh anything over four to one i love that price this one though uh giants have a lot of cardio king picks on this side You could look at Darius Slayton I going to take the latest one which is Ray Ray McLeod at plus 750.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Ray-Ray McCloud anytime TD” settled lost.

“So like Tillman and Wilson, Jill, you got the Jags at the Texans, another divisional matchup. Who are you looking at? Yeah, I just want to also mention about that Cleveland defense. They do not travel. If you look at their home and away splits this year, it's just been brutal for them. So I really like that Garrett Wilson pick. uh for jaguars texans i'm gonna go with a tight end on each side dalton schultz is right now he's around plus 300 i hate using the expression he's due but this guy it applies to him probably the most he's running the second most routes second highest target share for the texans despite no touchdowns yet this year behind nico collins davis mills is starting i think that actually should give schultz a little bit of a target uptick uh just being a little bit of a security blanket over the middle shorter a dot jags defense is 25th in defensive dvoa versus tight ends eight touchdowns allowed to the position so i like dalton schultz here the next guy though i want to get a little crazy because you would think hunter long is probably the guy that you would want in this spot i think we should we got to take johnny month here at 11 to 1 because since the brenton strange injury like he obviously hasn't seen a ton of targets but he has technically a higher targets per route run than the starter hunter long in that stretch he has more catches and targets overall as well versus zone defenses than what long has and the texans they play zone third highest rate and low key been kind of crappy against tight ends eight touchdowns and tight ends as well so uh we've seen in his time with the vikings that he can be kind of a sneaky touchdown scorer six touchdowns in three seasons with minnesota so i think if you want to take hunter long here at four to one i totally get it but his backup should not be 11 to one in a favorable matchup in my opinion. So Dalton Schultz at 3-1 and Johnny Munt at 11-1.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Johnny Mundt anytime TD” settled lost.

“jill who do you like for steelers chargers to get in the end zone yeah i think i bet on him in each of the last two games i'm gonna go with Calvin Austin III again at plus 375”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Calvin Austin III anytime TD” settled lost.

“who do you like for Packers Eagles Monday night football to score a touchdown? Yeah, it's pretty chalky, but anytime I can get him at plus odds, I'm going to take it. Jalen Hertz, he's around plus 135, plus 140. I'm not really going to try to explain the touchdown history and pedigree that he has. It's just, he has running back touchdown numbers as a quarterback and he is what the first in red zone rushing attempts for all quarterbacks, only five touchdowns this year so i think if anything there's probably going to be a push for him and i also would say that there's just a few more outs yeah a little push in the push yeah um but the thing that i like about this is just there's multiple outs the fact that we could get a dpi in the end zone we could get the tush push he might scramble from the 10 yard line there's just a lot of different ways that jaylen can score so anytime i can get him at plus odds i'm going to take him and i think is a great like anchor leg for a parlay absolutely yeah Jalen Hurts i can't believe he only has five i think”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Jalen Hurts anytime TD” settled lost.

“And now on the Giants side, though, I'm going to go with Devin Singletary at plus 425. Part of that is that defense for the 49ers is just brutal right now because there's just so many injuries. Cam Staddebaugh, he's out now. So Singletary did see a couple more snaps when he left the game last week. And I think he's going to see more snaps in the passing game. I think he's going to mix in with Tyrone Tracy. Like we see some third down pass catching roll, similar to like Samaji P. Ryan Chase Brown style. And the Niners, they've given up the third most targets, catches, and receiving touchdowns to running backs this year.”

Independent check against the authoritative NFL weekly results confirms the stored verdict.

“joe who do you like yeah i'm gonna go with luke mccaffrey little lmc here uh terry mcclorn is likely going to be out so we seen his involvement increase even with terry like he ended up still playing closer to 45 of snaps even with Terry McCorn back last week So I think he still going to be heavily involved in this offense And I love the odds that we're getting right now around plus three ninety.”

Independent check against the authoritative NFL weekly results confirms the stored verdict.

“Yeah, I'm going to go with CeeDee Lamb. I think it's pretty simple with CeeDee. I think right now he's just getting back in his own here, and I think against that Cardinal secondary, I think he could score another touchdown.”

Independent check against the authoritative NFL weekly results confirms the stored verdict.

“On the Bears side, I bet this earlier in the week at 5-1 trying to be an injury merchant. And I think it's going to pay off because Colston Loveland right now is around plus 350 to score. And Cole Komet is probably going to be out this week with a back injury. So Loveland saw season highs across the board once Komet was out. Ran the most routes. Season high in four targets. Played 67% of snaps.”

Independent check against the authoritative NFL weekly results confirms the stored verdict.

“Jill, go back to you here on Niners. Texans, who do you like to find the end zone in that game? Well, I think Christian McCaffrey just for an anytime touchdown is decent value at minus 140. But I don't want to give that out. I think we have to go the next level. I think two touchdowns at plus 450 is showing more value for me given just his role in this offense and really his role in the NFL of how he is being used.”

Independent check against the authoritative NFL weekly results confirms the stored verdict.

“And on the Saints side, I'm not going to overcomplicate it. I think you just got to keep going with Chris Olave here. I think he's one of the best young wide receivers in the NFL. Second in the NFL in total targets. He leads the Saints by a mile with eight end zone targets compared to the next closest that only has two. Scored twice last week. And I think there's been the book out on him is that he's not really been a deep threat in his time in the NFL. But this season, that's kind of changed. It continues to be a deep threat this year. They actually have the same amount of deep targets this season as Rashid Shahid. And the Bucs, they play man and zone, kind of a league average rate. Of course, you know they're going to play cover too under Todd Bowles. But with Olave, he leads the NFL in targets per route run. Or pardon me, he leads the team, rather, not NFL, in targets per route run against both of those coverages. So I think it's more of a set and forget it. You just take Chris Olave anytime you can get him over plus 200.”

Independent check against the authoritative NFL weekly results confirms the stored verdict.

“Let's take Payne Durham to score a touchdown at 13 to 1.”

Independent check against the authoritative NFL weekly results confirms the stored verdict.

“Harold Fannin Jr., plus 350.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“But yeah, we're going to take Jalen Coker. We're going to start with him. For me, he's one of the best up and coming slot receivers in the NFL. Now, he only scored twice last season. But, Rayvon, you had mentioned like he's probably going to take over this Hunter Renfro role and phase him out of this offense. Right. So I think as well, McMillan is scoring. last week that if anything is probably going to add more attention to him where I expect sauce Gardner to at least shadow him as much as possible when he's on that side of the field and then also just so much like again I don want to get too caught up in coach speak but the rave reviews that this guy has gotten in practice and in the preseason you would think he was their best wide receiver on the team right So getting him around plus 380 love that spot”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“Mason Taylor I know you like him as well That who I going to go with on the Jets side. He's going to probably be the top receiving option for them with Garrett Wilson out. Panthers, they've been awful versus tight ends. Not just this year, last year too. Four touchdowns this year, 11 last year. Nothing has really changed on that front. Still playing over 80% of snaps for all Jets tight ends this season so that's who I would bet to score on the Jets side”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“week joe who's your guy taste him hill he's back over his last 10 games he's got seven touchdowns now scored last week so i'm gonna go back to him here around plus 205”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“Joe, who are you looking at for a touchdown in Falcons Niners? Yeah, I'm going to keep it real simple and just go with Drake London.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“But this time, Nico Collins at plus 140.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“So I love the upside on Justin Fields to rush for a touchdown on this defense.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“On the Broncos side, this guy, whenever I bet him, it never feels good. [8:13] I will say this, but it's Evan Engram. [8:15] Just because of the history that we've had with him, with New York and in Jacksonville. [8:19] But I think that this is a system in Denver where he's going to be used even more as a pass catching threat because he scored last week versus the Eagles. [8:30] It looks to be fully recovered from that calf injury that came back in week two. [8:34] He's second on the team in targets in both games since he came back. [8:37] And the Jets have been awful versus tight ends this year. [8:40] They rank last in defensive DVOA versus the position. [8:43] They've given up four touchdowns to tight ends in just the last two games, two to Darren Waller, two to Jake Ferguson. [8:49] And just reading some of the coach speak, Sean Payton talked about that game, but also as Evan Engram wanting to play him in kind of that more joker, you know, Jimmy Graham role in this offense. [9:00] And I mean, to bring anybody back to what Jimmy Graham was in that offense, just a touchdown machine. [9:06] Now, I'm not going to put him in that same realm, but Evan Engram right now is around plus 375. [9:10] So that's the guy who I'm looking at on the Broncos side and Justin Fields on the Jets side.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“Yeah, I locked this in Tuesday morning. Pretty much as soon as I watched Kareem Hunt run for two touchdowns on the Jags defense, I was like, yep, that's who I'm getting the next game. And that's our guy, Zach Charbonnet here right now. He's around plus 200 touchdown in three or four games.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“On the Jags side, naturally, once we got rid of the Brenton Strange issue here that happened over the weekend with him and the IR sitch, I think we've got to go with Hunter Long. He's around now like plus 400. Seahawks run defense, they've just been really tough. So I'm not going to talk about how I like Travis Etienne or Trevor Lawrence again to score these touchdowns. touchdowns because really the passing defense has actually been where the Seahawks I think have struggled mostly especially with some of the injuries that they've had they've given up eight passing touchdowns this year three to tight ends so right now the backup from Brenton Strange is Hunter Long and he's playing the second most snaps he's running the second most routes of any Jags tight end he's got two end zone targets so far so far and the the Seahawks as well their defense they play zone eighth highest rate Long actually caught his only touchdown this year against zone So when looking at the touchdown odds for this game and just the way that the data points match up you could make a case for johnny month at like 10 to 1 but i just think hunter long when you're getting a starting tight end at 4 to 1 i still like those odds against a defense that i think they can score on so hunter long at 4 to 1”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“So we're going to go with Michael Carter. [30:06] We had him last week. [30:07] We're going to go back to him again. [30:08] He's around plus 205.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“I'm excited about this game. I know it, you know, might, might be some guys out on both sides, but I still always think these teams give high quality efforts and tend to be entertaining that's the Niners and the Bucs uh it looks like it's gonna be uh just another one of these like who's who's the quarterback who's playing receiver type of games uh who you're going with in this spot yeah so I guess full disclaimer just to give a peek behind the curtain I tried for a good 30 minutes to try to justify a long shot bet or find even a long shot bet on the Bucs side that I liked and right now every Bucs touchdown score is just shaded right now Payne Durham. You can't get higher than plus 475. You can't get Sterling Sheffard for better than plus 350 They got Kate Auden who has what One end zone target and maybe five targets total They have him at plus two 50 Like I can do it So guys I going to have to do it We doing a Mecca Buka We just taking him at plus one 35 and we moving on All right”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“to take so Demarcus Robinson at plus 425 and we're going to keep it nice and safe Emeka Abuka at plus”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“Lions at Chiefs. Chiefs are a short home favorite after even off the loss against Jacksonville. Jill, I'm going to start with you first. This is a game with the highest total of the week around. It's like it's still around 52 and a half. Where are you looking? Because there could be a lot of touchdowns if the market is correct. Yeah. And I think we have to start with Amon Ross St. Brown. Chiefs played a ton of man coverage right now. Amon Ross St. Brown, I think, has graded out through five weeks as the best wide receiver against man coverage. So why not keep taking him in this matchup? Love him.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“I will take Dalton [57:22] Kincaid for an anytime touchdown”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“guy been money all year Yeah And I don think that this one is unsafe at all Roma Dunze right now at plus 175 mainly just because a lot of man coverage that they going to see from the commanders I probably will be matched up with Lattimore, who I think has just been not good at all this year in his time as a commander. So I think right now, anytime we can get Rome over plus 150, and especially in a matchup against man coverage where he is just crushed so far this year, that's who we take.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“Davante Adams for Jill at plus 130,”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“I think we got to go with Ollie Gordon the backup running back behind Devon Achan He around plus 320 So he scored in week three And right now through four games I was actually surprised when I saw this But he has as many red zone carries as Devon Achan and all the carries inside the five yard line. Devon Achan, as prominent as he is in that offense, he's just not getting those carries between the tackles, especially when they get inside the 10 yard line.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“But on the Panthers side, I think we just got to keep taking the quarterbacks to score on the Dolphins. It's Bryce Young. He's right now around six to one. I'm seeing odds around six to one and as low as like plus 250 at other places.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“On the Broncos side, we're going Marvin Mims again, plus 450.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“On the Bucs side, we'll go with Chris Godwin. He's at plus 275, 10 targets in week four, first game back. Now only three catches, but I kind of attribute a lot of that to Rust. And I think this is a matchup where I think he could still be used quite a bit, especially if Baker's thrown the ball so well right now, because they play zone at a top 10 rate, a lot of cover two and a lot of cover three. Again, if you have to use more last year sample size, but his target rate versus those coverages last year was much higher than compared to when he says man defenses. Of course, Mike Evans is out. Bucky Irving is probably out as well. um and then also another reason why i like godwin here especially i would like a buccaneers touchdown that is within short range because when you look at all the receiving touchdowns the seahawks have allowed so far the longest one they've allowed was last week to marvis marvin harrison for 17 yards five of those are inside the 10 yard line so to me that thinks let's go for the receiver who has the lower a dot and the lower average depth of target and that's chris godwin right away so on the buck side we'll go with him”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“All right, I'm going to go with Stefon Diggs. And just to clarify for some people that I've seen post on social, this is not a revenge game. He played against the Bills last season with the Texans. There were people who were like, man, they're going to go up against the Bills revenge spot. And it's like, no, no, no. I just want to take him because I like his odds. He's around plus 260. I think he's going to have a decent matchup because honestly, when you look at Christian Benford and the way that he's been playing so far this year, getting burned quite a bit, got burned by Chris Olave near at the end of the game as well. So I think Stefon Diggs, even though he hasn't scored a touchdown yet this year, he is still playing the majority of snaps, running the majority of routes. So I think this is a matchup where he can win. So I'll take it at plus 260.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“is a matchup where he can win. So I'll take it at plus 260. And I got to go with Dawson Knox at Yeah. Six to one. Now, Dawson Knox came into the year. I think we were talking about expected Kincaid's touchdown share to go up because Josh said he missed him a ton last year in the red zone. However, looking at the usage last week, Knox, all six of the red zone routes, Kincaid zero for this Buffalo Bill offense, and that spells Knox touchdown. So give me Knox at six to one in this spot.”

Independent check against the ESPN game record confirms the stored verdict.

“well i'm gonna go with the guy who has the biggest edge right now in our action pro projections for any time touchdown odds, and that's Kyler Murray. We're really threading the needle, too, with three touchdown props on a total of 43, I think, right now for this game. So I love the odds though for Kyler because and again this is now the third week I think I taken Kyler on this podcast Part of the reason why is just again the carries are there like 20 carries over three games He's not just being passive in the pocket. One thing that I liked against the Niners last week, and I thought that we were going to see this, is that he was getting some carries inside the 10 yard line. He had two last week against the 49ers and just been scrambling a lot, too. He's fourth amongst all quarterbacks in total scrambles, second in yards per scramble. and like a lot of quarterbacks but especially for Kyler he will see a big jump in scramble rate when he sees pressure in the Seahawks I mean through three games fourth in pressure rate per drop back so James Conner is out you know Trey Benson even though he is the red hot name in fantasy I imagine again a little unproven I think Kyler this is a week that he could get his touchdown and I love his odds over plus 300 right now”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“I'm going to take David Moore at plus 900 on the Panthers side because Xavier Leggett, he missed last week.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“Austin Hooper he's around plus 650 and I think uh what's going to happen here is after that two touchdown game from Hunter Henry last week there's just going to be a lot more love for Hunter this week whereas I feel like Austin Hooper is getting a little bit forgotten because Raybon you kind of laid this out last week he's playing over 60 percent of snaps and this Panthers team a lot of zone a lot of cover three third highest rate of cover three in the NFL and their bottom three and targets catches and touchdowns to tight ends this year just only one touchdown though allowed whereas last year they allowed the most touchdowns to tight ends”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“play a shit ton of man coverage a lot of cover one uh so if that's the case i'm gonna take jamo i'm taking Jameson Williams he's around plus 220 uh and again you prod up the defense like i don't want any part of gibbs or montgomery in this matchup it's not because i don't think they can score it's they're both priced right now like they scored twice last week and they're basically against a browns defense that just is not allowing anything on the ground and i think with jamo too the other thing is that he looked great in the first quarter when they were moving the ball but then they didn't really the lines kind of went with a more of a run heavy approach in the second half and just completely dominated the line of scrimmage so they weren't really throwing as much they were more waiting to throw it on third down i think they're gonna have to throw a little bit more here because of the Browns in their defense who do play man coverage at a top five rate. They're also 24th in defense of DVO versus the deep ball and a lot of cover one. So that kind of checks all the boxes for JMO. So I think as long as Jared Goff just doesn't spam Amon Ross St. Brown over and over again, I think we're going to see a JMO long bomb touchdown.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“Watching him play, but he does spam Chris Olave a lot with targets. And I think that's really where we have to go. He's around plus 270. He leads the NFL in total targets. He's got four end zone targets so far. And when you look at who the Bills have given up touchdowns to, four or five receiving touchdowns allowed by the Bills are two outside wide receivers.”

BUF 31, NO 19 — Buffalo beat New Orleans 31-19 and Kendre Miller scored the Saints’ only touchdown; Chris Olave did not score.

“I'm taking Ray Davis here because there is a couple of ways you could play Bill's touchdown scores. If you think it's going to be a close game, maybe you want to play Dalton Kincaid just given how he has played against that type of defensive front. But I think this is going to be one of those blowout style of games. And if it is, then that's when we want Ray Davis, right? Because you laid out the case last week against the Dolphins. Like his volume tends to just see a huge uptick when they're leading by eight or more points. And that's similar to kind of what we saw in week two when they were blowing out the jets he had nine carries in week two as opposed to just one or two in week one and week three so i think ray davis is the guy that we want at plus 375”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“We're going to go with Mark Andrews. [35:18] He's especially if he's over plus 200, he's plus 235.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“Kareem Hunt, he's around plus 210. [37:16] I like it anywhere over plus 200 for him.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“and take Tucker Kraft. I think Tucker Kraft will be the one to score for this Packers defense.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“I think Dontayvion Wicks at plus 250 and David Njoku, I'm seeing right now plus 390 for Njoku. So that's who I like on the Browns side.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“why don't we just go back to Hunter Renfro again? [20:29] He's plus 400.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“I think you just got to take Drake London because the touchdowns are coming. I just I'm surprised that we haven't gotten there yet, but he's two prettier, tough matchups. But again, three end zone targets through two games. Carolina, just like the Falcons, play a ton of zone emphasis on cover three. Well, London, he leads the team in yards per round run, targets per round run, rather, against both of those types of coverages. I mean, he crushed them last year, 16 catches and three touchdowns. So, yeah, there will be no Kyle Pitts from me this week on the Falcon side. So, yeah, we're just doing Drake London and Hunter Renfro plus 160 and plus 400.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“On the Saints side, I'm going to Juwan Johnson again. It's always every week for me. Am I taking Juwan Johnson? Am I taking Rasheed Shahid? Like, it's always kind of between those two. and they both ended up actually scoring last week which was cool but juan was the one i think who's the person i want to target in this game one of the few tight ends for me uh he's played over 90 of snaps in both games uh led the team in uh pardon me he leads the team in red zone targets um and then also just the way that the seahawks defense of what they've been able to stop so far the passing touchdowns that they've all given up have all been inside the 10 yard line week one George Kittle, another one to Jake Tongass Then in third one again, inside the 10 yard line to DK Metcalf So I want kind of guys who have that shorter A dot And who could be those big targets in the end zone And also they play a lot of cover 4 and cover six on the Seahawks side So I think that would usually lend itself to a deep threat like Rashid Shahid but they've just been so good at defending the deep ball. I just have no faith in Spencer Rattler being able to make those kind of completions downfield like when we saw like with Derek Carr. So I think any type you can get Juwan Johnson over three to one, given how much of a fixture he is in this offense, that's the side that I would lean on for the Saints.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“I'm just going to take Ricky Pearsall instead at plus 240”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“I'm just going to go with Taylor Swift's fiance, Travis Kelsey. Right now, he's around plus 140. I think the market is extremely down on him as a result of what we saw in week two. And frankly, I think he's just going to have a bounce back game. I don't really feel like we have to say much more about travis kelsey at this point current i'm gonna go with cam scadaboo at plus 180 uh over at draft kings but he actually took over his lead back in the second half last week so i'm assuming he's gonna draw the start here in week three and we kind of thought he'd get it off to a slow start just given he missed so much of camp and he's a rookie uh but i was surprised how fast he kind of leapfrogged uh taron tracy jr so um This is the market really to invest in him because he's the goal lineback no matter what. And he had that one-yard touchdown last week. So I think getting him at plus 180 before the market adjusts, this is the time to buy in. Because I'm projected closer to plus 140. Yeah, he was – I mean, that second half, he took over. Like, in the first half, it was weird. I mean, I think Singletary got snaps early in the game. And then Scadaboo ended up being third for a second. but then yeah he jumped everybody uh probably should continue i think tracy's on the injury report so i don't even know what's going on with him but um i'm surprised as well but at least they got in uh so that and they got some points on the board so love it uh i'm gonna go with i was gonna go kareem hunt uh but i already went with him on uh the action pod i do think he's gonna get more of the short yards work than pacheco but i'm gonna go with patrick mahomes at plus 360 because Because Mahomes himself has said, they need my scrambling. And they're still 0-2. So they still need it. And I just look at this Chiefs team and, yeah, I like Hunt, but I do see a scenario where 0-2, you just throw the ball down in there. And when you throw the ball, what happens? No one gets open. Or Travis Kelsey is flashing across and, you know, he'll score one. But then Mahomes is going to flash back to that drop. And when they need a second one late in the game to pull off like a 17-12 win, and he's just going to kind of run it himself and hit the pylon and do a weird celebration. So we seen it two weeks in a row and that how you know Patrick Mahomes is running more When you start seeing him week two he already got you know a couple of big rushing games and two rushing scores on the board That's usually reserved for, you know, for the postseason kind of time. Yeah, he didn't score a touchdown last year, and he's already in playoff Mahomes mode because he has no choice because there's just no receiving options. yeah and uh you know we've seen this this giant team just get eaten up by eating up by the run uh just all over the place so uh yeah like this one uh so chelsea mahomes scadaboo what was scadaboo sean you said plus 180 okay and chelsea joe plus 140”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“yeah i'm gonna go with theo johnson [12:53] again”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Theo Johnson anytime TD” settled lost.

“I'm going to go with Kyler Murray, plus 230.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Kyler Murray anytime TD” settled lost.

“I took Kyler Murray and Bryce Young.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Bryce Young anytime TD” settled lost.

“I'm going to add J.J. McCarthy. [34:35] He's around plus 400.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “J.J. McCarthy anytime TD” settled lost.

“And I think Cade Auton at plus 350 is good for a bounce back spot here.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Cade Otton anytime TD” settled lost.

“pumped when I see Rashid Shahid at plus 350 or better. He is a legit playmaker in this offense, four touchdowns in six games last year before getting hurt. He's got a special teams touchdown in each of the last two seasons, so there's upside in the return game. And the Cardinals, they tend to play a lot of zones, 70% rate last year, and they were bottom five in defensive DVOA versus the deep ball. Well, that really kind of checks the boxes for Shahid because he's crushed zone defenses compared to man coverage, and he leads the team in ADOT. So I'm kind of trusting that the new coach, Kellen Moore, will come in, dial up a couple long bombs from either Spencer Rattler or maybe even we see Tyler Shuck near the end of the game. But yeah, Rashid Shahid is my favorite Saint to score a touchdown this week.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Rashid Shaheed anytime touchdown” settled lost.

“favorite Saint to score a touchdown this week. On the Cardinals side, I went with Michael Wilson at plus 450, and mainly because of some of the carryover of what we saw from the Saints defense”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Michael Wilson anytime touchdown” settled lost.

“So from a Giants perspective, I went with Theo Johnson.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Theo Johnson anytime touchdown” settled lost.

“it's gonna be week one for Kyle Pitts yeah the Bucs they they just do what they do they gave about”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Kyle Pitts anytime touchdown” settled lost.

“So Jameis Williams at plus 240 and Romeo Doubs plus 235.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Romeo Doubs anytime touchdown” settled lost.

“Jameson Williams at plus 240.”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Jameson Williams anytime touchdown” settled lost.

“dawson knox he's around plus 500”

Authoritative ESPN result confirms “Dawson Knox anytime touchdown” settled lost.

“I think it has to be Brian Dable at four to one, a guy who is literally coasting off of a nine and seven and one season.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“So at 18-1, I think Jared Goff is my favorite bet for that market. Brandon, who do you like to throw the most interceptions?”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“This one's kind of obvious. Brock Bowers, a 10-1. I mean, I'm just dubious of Ashton Jinty coming in and dominating right away where he ends up leading the team in touchdowns. Essentially, Jinty is a minus 750 favorite right now for this spot, whereas Brock Bowers is 10-1.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“And then finally, New Orleans Saints, Juwan Johnson. He's around 15 to one.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“So again, with Dak back, assuming he's healthy for a full season, I'm projecting at least eight wins. And I think at 20 to one, this is a great price, kind of a great entry point to the offensive player of the year market. as you go from a portfolio standpoint. And then you could start to kind of shift and go as the weeks go. But I think CeeDee Lamb at 20 to one, given the volume of targets that he is going to get in this offense I think right now he is the best value My heart was initially on the Jameer Gibbs train but again the David Montgomery presence the offensive line regression Ben Johnson leaving I just couldn't get there. Whereas I think CeeDee Lamb is prime for a nice bounce back season. So that's what I like for offensive player of the year.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“the touchdown market and i went to most receiving touchdowns after week four and my pick for that was george kittle you can get that right now at draft kings at 35 to one”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“So I like the 49ers at 13 to 1 for the best record.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“And that is the New Orleans Saints, who I think are going to finish with the worst record. I grabbed that at plus 425 at DraftKings.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“shocking case here we've talked a lot about the saints less about the browns the browns quarterback room is the worst in the league joe flacco is not going to last too long out there one reason or another and they don get to play the nfc south like the saints so they gotta play the ravens they gotta play the steelers they do get to play the bangles but only twice so least points browns plus 375 so uh evan i was just looking up justin field uh game log last year with the steelers do you know he only topped 20 points in two of six starts as a starter with the steelers now some of that could have been the the offense but yeah you're right i'm I'm not high on the Jets either. I had decided, though, I'm going to look at an AFC East team, but I wanted to look at a long shot, especially a team that I think we're most associated with seeing explosive offense. And I love the Miami Dolphins in this spot at 40-1 at Caesars for a little bit of a long shot bet”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“we're going to talk about the houston texans because i'm taking them to miss [48:53] the playoffs i grabbed it at plus 120”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“Let's do Super Bowl exact matchups. So essentially we're parlaying the AFC winner with the NFC winner. and I went pretty chalky with this one even though the odds aren't chalk the odds may as well be I took Bills 49ers at 40 to 1 and we've already went over the case with the Niners”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

• Tank Dell anytime touchdown
• Amon-Ra St. Brown anytime touchdown

“i still think tank [32:05] dell is the guy that we want to take here for the texans and pair him maybe with amon ross st [32:10] brown like you know like right now those two paired together it's about plus 475”

The Week 10 Pro-Football-Reference box scores confirm the parlay result and stored grade.

• Cooper Kupp anytime touchdown
• Tyreek Hill anytime touchdown

“you pair Cooper Cup touchdown with Tyreek Hill touchdown, that's around plus 430.”

The Week 10 Pro-Football-Reference box score confirms the parlay result and stored grade.

“All right, worst record. Brandon, apologies in advance. I know you're a Vikings fan, but I think they're going to be the worst team in the NFL this year. And at 12 to one, that's the team I want to look at.”

NFL.com's 2024 standings confirm the stored lost grade. (Vikings 14-3)

“I'm going to take the Jaguars to make the playoffs at plus 120.”

NFL.com's 2024 standings confirm the stored lost grade. (Jacksonville 4-13)

“that's the Browns to win the AFC [33:07] North around plus 550.”

NFL.com's 2024 standings confirm the stored lost grade. (Browns 3-14)

“I'm going to take the Jets at plus 650 for least points allowed.”

NFL.com's 2024 standings confirm the stored lost grade. (Chargers allowed 301 points (league low))

“I'm going to take the Chicago Bears at 28 [42:48] to 1.”

NFL.com's 2024 standings confirm the stored lost grade. (Chargers allowed 301 points (league low))

“and i think this is actually baked into the odds why we're getting this is the Minnesota Vikings at plus 950.”

NFL.com's 2024 standings confirm the stored lost grade. (Jaguars stayed winless through Week 5)

“I'm going right back to it. and it is Josh Allen to throw the most interceptions at 10 to one.”

NFL.com's 2024 standings confirm the stored lost grade. (INT leaders Cousins/Mayfield 16; Allen low)

“this Niners defense has been so efficient in the first quarter. So instead, I think if you're going to take Travis Kelsey, you take him for the first Chiefs touchdown at plus 330. Does that price compare at all to last year? If you know, I do. It was actually plus 330 last year. So that's why I'm like, okay. Yes. Well, it's a familiar market, but also just last week it was around plus 280. The week before it was around plus 300 and that's against the Bills and then the Ravens. you know if you're going to keep upping the price you know against a Niners defense that I don't think is really going to give that much resistance comparatively to those two defenses I'm going to take that okay”

ESPN's scoring summary shows Pacheco scored the first Chiefs touchdown, so the Kelce scorer prop lost as stored.

“But the fact we're getting it at plus 135, I think we've got to take this every time. So Gus Edwards, anytime touchdown, is who I like in that opener for divisional round.”

ESPN's scoring summary records no Edwards touchdown, so the anytime-touchdown prop lost as stored.

“I'm going to go with Jayden Reed [31:24] at plus 220 for a touchdown with the Packers.”

ESPN's scoring summary records no Reed touchdown, so the anytime-touchdown prop lost as stored.

“So we're all in it on Jordan Love at 12 to one to score a touchdown.”

ESPN's scoring summary records no Love touchdown, so the anytime-touchdown prop lost as stored.

“Yeah, I'm going to be actually fading the MVP, according to Luke, Lamar Jackson, and taking his interception prop for yes at plus 105, echoing a lot of the same things that”

Lamar Jackson threw zero interceptions against Miami, so the interception-yes prop lost (ESPN box score). (Lamar Jackson 0 interceptions)

“And if that's the case, and you're giving me plus 125 odds for probably a top three playmaker in the NFL, I'm going to take that. So Justin Jefferson at plus 125, he will score a touchdown against the green Bay Packers.”

Justin Jefferson recorded no touchdown against Green Bay, so the anytime-TD pick lost (ESPN Week 17 scoreboard). (Justin Jefferson 0 touchdowns)

“If you take the two and a half, I'm going to take the Chiefs minus two and a half.”

21-17 — Philadelphia won 21-17, so Kansas City did not cover -2.5 as stored (ESPN box score).

“I'm going to bet a touchdown score in this game and I'm betting Kareem Hunt to score another [32:58] touchdown at plus 275.”

Cleveland's box score records no Kareem Hunt touchdown, so the anytime-TD prop lost as stored (ESPN box score). (Kareem Hunt 0 touchdowns)

“on the subject of Patrick Mahomes, That allows Jill to chime in because Jill has an angle on the quarterback. Jill, your first one. Yeah, this is a really interesting angle for me because I do agree with Luke. He is the best quarterback in the NFL, but I'm also still going to bet his interception prop versus the Dolphins at even odds because he's thrown an interception in six of eight games.”

21-14 — ESPN box score records Patrick Mahomes with 0 interceptions in Kansas City's 21-14 win, so interception yes lost. (Patrick Mahomes: 0 interceptions)

“but I think it's going to be the Lamar show we got to go with Lamar Jackson anytime touchdown at plus 125”

37-3 — Baltimore beat Seattle 37-3 and Lamar Jackson had 0 touchdowns. (Lamar Jackson 0 touchdowns)

“From a touchdown score perspective, I cannot believe Jakobi Meyers is still around plus 300 in this offense, especially with Jimmy coming back, because the Lions have struggled against the slot. They've actually allowed the second most touchdowns to the slot this year, the third most catches. Jakobi Meyers is tied for the most targets inside the 10, both with Devontae. Now, Devontae, you know, squeaky wheel, he'll probably score this week as well around plus 110, plus 120. But if you going to give me a secondary receiver who playing in the slot and this is clearly one of the Lions weaknesses and giving it to me at plus 300 I going to take this almost every time”

26-14 — Detroit beat Las Vegas 26-14 and Jakobi Meyers had 0 touchdowns. (Jakobi Meyers 0 touchdowns)

“Yeah, so this is – and again, I know that everybody has just been dying from more AFC South content here. But this is a classic case of me betting on someone because it's due. And that's CJ Stroud for an interception at plus 130.”

20-13 — ESPN box score records C.J. Stroud with 0 interceptions in Houston's 20-13 win, so interception yes lost. (C.J. Stroud: 0 interceptions)

“i went with cd [29:21] CeeDee Lamb at plus 125 to score a touchdown”

20-17 — Dallas beat the Chargers 20-17 and CeeDee Lamb had 0 touchdowns. (CeeDee Lamb 0 touchdowns)

“when it comes to touchdowns, I like Dawson Knox and I think there's actually someone, yeah, you like as well. So we're looking about 17, 18 to one for Knox for first touchdown. He was third in red zone targets last year. He's also Josh's man. So I don't mind it. And we're going to take a flyer there”

22-16 — Dawson Knox did not score in New York's 22-16 overtime win, so he was not first touchdown scorer as stored (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).

“Jacksonville Jaguars at 16 to one”

Official NFL 2023 result confirms Jacksonville Jaguars best record; the stored lost outcome is correct.

“and that's the arizona cardinals that i think is going to have the worst [14:50] record this year and you can get them right now at plus 250”

Official NFL 2023 result confirms Arizona Cardinals worst record; the stored lost outcome is correct.

“i'm taking the steelers to win the division at five to one”

Official NFL 2023 result confirms Pittsburgh Steelers to win AFC North; the stored lost outcome is correct.

“the team that I immediately want to pick for this is the Washington Commanders. They're at 28 to one for the least points allowed.”

Official NFL 2023 result confirms Washington Commanders fewest points allowed; the stored lost outcome is correct.

“I'm looking at the Jets at 25 to one and the Lions at 75 to one.”

Official NFL 2023 result confirms New York Jets last winless team; the stored lost outcome is correct.

“So I'm taking the Detroit Lions at 75 to one and the Jets at 25 to one.”

Official NFL 2023 result confirms Detroit Lions last winless team; the stored lost outcome is correct.

“looking at the New Orleans Saints at 25 to one.”

Official NFL 2023 result confirms New Orleans Saints last undefeated team; the stored lost outcome is correct.

“but the guy that i'm picking is riverboat ron rivera”

Official NFL 2023 result confirms Ron Rivera first coach fired; the stored lost outcome is correct.

“me and you don't really care about either one of those things this year, because we are aligned on the same guy. I'll let you make the case. Yeah, we immediately started texting each other right after the draft to see the rookie of the year odds. And we're like, this seems a little off that the fact that right now we're still getting plus 300 on this guy. So we're both aligned on Bijan Robinson.”

Official NFL 2023 result confirms Bijan Robinson to win Offensive Rookie of the Year; the stored lost outcome is correct.

“dable fit both of those last year as well so jill you got a pick for this one what do you got yeah i'm gonna be sprinkling on this because it's plus 2500 and i know brandon is a little more higher on the falcons than the panthers but i can't overlook frank reich right now”

Official NFL 2023 result confirms Frank Reich to win Coach of the Year; the stored lost outcome is correct.

“and jill you've got a best bet for this award best bet but with a recommendation as only a sprinkle because this is at 75 to 1 right now at uh fan duel and again i wouldn't put more than maybe like a little sprinkle like a 0.1 of a unit on it but i'm looking at saints wide receiver michael thomas”

Official NFL 2023 result confirms Michael Thomas to win Comeback Player of the Year; the stored lost outcome is correct.

“[13:19] Yeah, pressure creates diamonds. And I think we're going to be looking at Dallas Goddard for a touchdown for a lot of the same reasons that Luke mentioned. But I'm going to double down and just go a little bit deeper into that, specifically because of Jalen Hurts passing preference. Like he has looked for Goddard early and often pretty much since the start of when he became a starter at the start of last season. [13:41] So if you just look over the last two seasons, 83 first-down catches by Dallas Goddard. [13:46] To put that in perspective, that's more than the first three seasons combined that he had for 76 first-downs. [13:52] And had he played a full slate, he only played 12 games this year, he actually would have surpassed A.J. Brown and Devontae Smith for total first-downs. [14:01] And as Luke mentioned, tacking the slot is the key of what we target when we bet against the Chiefs defense. [14:06] We got Christian Kirk when they played against the Jags. [14:09] Tyler Boyd looked great until he got hurt midway through that game.”

ESPN's Super Bowl LVII box score confirms Dallas Goedert did not score a touchdown, so this settled lost as recorded.

“I'm going to take Patrick Mahomes to actually throw an interception at minus 120.”

ESPN's Super Bowl LVII box score confirms Patrick Mahomes did not throw an interception, so this settled lost as recorded.

“i'm going to take DeVonta Smith to score a touchdown at plus 190”

ESPN's NFC Championship box score confirms DeVonta Smith did not score a touchdown, so this settled lost as recorded.

“[30:43] So it doesn't matter who the quarterback is, too, to a degree. [30:46] Just referencing what happened down the stretch, because that's something to think about, too, right? [30:50] Down the stretch, you got to factor in, well, Hertz wasn't the quarterback, right? [30:54] Okay, Jill, what do you got for your second pick going back to the anytime touchdown market? [30:59] yeah i'm gonna stick with the the nmc championship game but i'm gonna take my favorite 49er bet in [31:04] this game and it's gonna be george kittle uh it's the best value on the board right now for the [31:08] niners mainly because of what we just kind of talked about what this niners defense is all about”

ESPN's NFC Championship box score confirms George Kittle did not score a touchdown, so this settled lost as recorded.

“we're going to be taking tyler boyd to score a touchdown in this game”

ESPN's AFC Championship box score confirms Tyler Boyd did not score a touchdown, so this settled lost as recorded.

“I'm going to be looking at the new Giants wide receiver one, Isaiah Hodgins, at plus 220 to score a touchdown.”

Isaiah Hodgins did not score against Philadelphia, so the anytime-touchdown prop lost as stored (NFL box score).

“[36:37] a different matchup but yes we are going to go with dawson knox at plus 210 because anything [36:42] over plus 200 for me is an auto bet and i've been saying this for uh pretty much all season”

Dawson Knox did not score against Cincinnati, so the anytime-touchdown prop lost as stored (NFL box score).

“[16:01] and I'm going to take George Kittle at plus 150.”

George Kittle did not score against Seattle, so the anytime-touchdown prop lost as stored (NFL box score).

“[40:34] And that is Buccaneers money line at plus 120.”

Dallas beat Tampa Bay 31-14, so Buccaneers moneyline lost as stored (NFL).

“the fact that I am a Cowboys fan and immediately put money down on the Buccaneers money line just [55:33] shows like the faith that I have in this team right now”

Dallas beat Tampa Bay 31-14, so Buccaneers moneyline lost as stored (NFL).

“i'm taking titans money line [12:59] at plus 235 i'd be like this is the game where you take the money line not the spreads and totals”

Jacksonville beat Tennessee 20-16, so Titans moneyline lost as stored (NFL).

“I'm also going to be taking Josh Dobbs for an anytime touchdown and Zay Jones as well.”

Josh Dobbs did not score against Jacksonville, so the anytime-touchdown prop lost as stored (NFL box score).

“I'm also going to be taking Josh Dobbs for an anytime touchdown and Zay Jones as well.”

Zay Jones did not score against Tennessee, so the anytime-touchdown prop lost as stored (NFL box score).

“I'm taking under 41 and a half.”

Cincinnati beat Baltimore 27-16, so Under 41.5 lost as stored (NFL).

“i am going for [35:15] an anytime touchdown bet and i'm taking darren waller with the raiders to score against the [35:20] Chiefs this weekend at plus 330.”

Darren Waller did not score against Kansas City, so the anytime-touchdown prop lost as stored (NFL box score).

“I'm going to take the 49ers minus 9.5 versus the inept, woeful Raiders.”

San Francisco beat Las Vegas 37-34, so 49ers -9.5 lost as stored (NFL box score).

“i'm gonna take jets minus one and a half as well”

Seattle beat the Jets 23-6, so the duplicate Jets -1.5 pick lost as stored (NFL).

“We're going to start with the Chicago Bears versus the Buffalo Bills. [7:18] and I'm going to take the Chicago Bears to cover at plus eight and a half.”

Buffalo beat Chicago 35-13, so Bears +8.5 lost as stored (NFL).

“i'm going to be taking the seahawks plus 10 and i'm going to hold [16:56] down the fort for brandon”

Kansas City beat Seattle 24-10, so Seahawks +10 lost as stored (NFL box score).

“I'm going to be taking the over 50.5 between the Packers and Dolphins.”

Green Bay beat Miami 26-20, so Over 50.5 lost as stored (NFL).

“On the Rams side, I'm going to be taking Van Jefferson at plus 400.”

Van Jefferson did not score against Green Bay, so the anytime-touchdown prop lost as stored (NFL box score).

“I'm going to be taking the Bills minus seven versus the Dolphins”

Buffalo beat Miami 32-29, so Bills -7 lost as stored (NFL).

“okay under 36 and a half for the cardinals broncos”

Denver beat Arizona 24-15, so Under 36.5 lost as stored (NFL box score).

“I'm going to take the Giants plus seven against the Eagles here,”

Philadelphia beat New York 48-22, so Giants +7 lost as stored (NFL box score).

“I'm going to take Adam Trautman.”

ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 13 final results and box score confirm Adam Trautman anytime TD settled lost as recorded.

“And then I'm also going to take Rashid Shahid.”

ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 13 final results and box score confirm Rashid Shaheed anytime TD settled lost as recorded.

“i'm gonna take the commanders at minus two and a half”

ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 13 final results and box score confirm Commanders -2.5 settled lost as recorded.

“I will sell you an over for Chargers Raiders. [14:12] I'm going to take over 50 and a half.”

ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 13 final results and box score confirm Over 50.5 settled lost as recorded.

“I'm going to take the Chiefs first [26:25] half money line it's at minus 130 not the spread just the money line”

ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 13 final results and box score confirm Chiefs 1st half ML settled lost as recorded.

“Right. Jill, anytime touchdown scores tomorrow night, Jonathan Taylor, the leader in the clubhouse at minus 155. That is not your that's not your wheelhouse. You like looking down the board. Yeah, but not too far. I'm going to take Friar Muth with the Steelers at plus 290. Really starting to get a rapport with Kenny Pickett. You know, he has five red zone targets and 37 targets overall just in his last four games.”

ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 12 final results and box score confirm Pat Freiermuth anytime touchdown settled lost as recorded.

“i want to bet a touchdown in this game and i think the guy that we got to bet is dak prescott for an anytime touchdown at plus 400 so why we're going to look at dak starting to run a bit more coming back off of that injury”

ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 12 final results and box score confirm Dak Prescott anytime touchdown scorer settled lost as recorded.

“so I do think the Patriots will keep this very close you could take the plus two and a half as a safer spot or you could take the outright win if you're feeling a little more dangerous I'm going to take the safer angle I'm going to take the plus two and a half I feel like you”

ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 12 final results and box score confirm Patriots +2.5 settled lost as recorded.

“I'm going to go to the Cowboys and Vikings game, and I'm going to bank on some [19:00] offense for that game. I'm going to go at over 47 and a half.”

ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 11 final results and box score confirm Over 47.5 settled lost as recorded.

“we're going to look at Colts Raiders, and we're going to take under 41 and a half,”

ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 10 final results and box score confirm Under 41.5 settled lost as recorded.

“I'm going to take the Raiders minus one and a half versus the Jaguars”

ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 9 final results and box score confirm Raiders -1.5 settled lost as recorded.

“take the over 43 and a half for vikings commanders and brandon again i'm not trying to uh demerit the”

ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 9 final results and box score confirm Over 43.5 settled lost as recorded.

“i think we seeing a little bit of an over correction here at 40 and a half i going to take the over in this spot”

ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 8 final results and box score confirm Over 40.5 settled lost as recorded.

“[37:13] Is there hope for Chicago to score some points in this game? [37:17] And you're like, OK, maybe I will take a stab at a bear or two to score. [37:22] Well I think that one thing that really interesting about this game is because we all saw the last two games and we saw what this defense did to I don want to call it one dimensional offenses I think the could do a little bit more but they pretty much shut that team down then same thing for the lions as well and this team has even less weapons than those two teams [37:37] and it's surprising that the spread is only seven and a half because it feels like you know a 24 to [37:42] three win is just that game script so i think if i was to pick some touchdowns out of this i think [37:48] i'm going to lean on that patriots defense and look at them to score at plus 450 joe plus 500 now [37:53] on oh wow yeah i mean that i i looked at that price just before the pod started so honestly”

ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 7 final results and box score confirm Patriots defense/special teams to score a TD settled lost as recorded.

“And looking at the action app, Jacksonville getting 51% of the money, just 36% of the bets. This line opened at Giants plus one and a half. So Jaguar is becoming a bigger favorite. for this spot. Let's go to Jill Gallant. What do you got? First pick, Jill. Welcome back. Thank you. Yeah, so I'm going to stick with the AFC South. I'm not taking the Jacksonville game, but I am going to look at that Titans-Colts game, and I'm going to take the first half total. I'm going to go over 20 and a half, and even though we just kind of lamented about how much scoring”

ESPN's final result and box score confirm the recorded settlement.

“it's going to be chargers my minus five and a half versus the seahawks”

ESPN's final result and box score confirm the recorded settlement.

“[31:50] first half between the chiefs and the Raiders and also some anytime [31:53] touchdown possibilities. [31:54] Yeah, I mean, I'd still play it at the four and a half, [31:56] but obviously I think it's obviously better at minus four [31:59] because of the key number. [32:01] But I still think just the way that their offense has come out [32:04] in these first halves, I think they'll still blitz them”

ESPN's final result and box score confirm the recorded settlement.

“I like Mack Hollins to be able to get another touchdown at plus 275.”

ESPN's final result and box score confirm the recorded settlement.

“chiefs minus four on the first half spread and part of the reason is just how strong the chiefs”

ESPN's final result and box score confirm the recorded settlement.

“[39:06] here? Well, just the Patriots and Packers line at minus nine and a half right now for Packers at [39:11] home. I think we talked about this off air just quickly before we came on about how the line has [39:17] already moved from six and a half like this morning to now nine and a half with the news of [39:20] Mac Jones having that high ankle sprain and potentially not playing but I think for everybody [39:25] who has watched football for more than say five years that have seen a decent sample size of Brian [39:30] Hoyer as an NFL quarterback I can't say that that line should be less than 10 and I feel like that [39:36] line is going to move more into the Packers favor so if you think the Packers are going to win this”

GB 27, NE 24 — ESPN's Week 4 schedule records GB 27, NE 24, confirming Packers -9.5 settled lost as recorded.

“[27:23] and they didn really improve enough from a roster standpoint where you would feel like you would feel threatened by that and then not only that it some of the books right now they got jerry judy who had better touchdown odds than courtland sutton right now and i feel like if you flipping a coin i going to take sutton [27:36] every time at least for this week so i think right now i think he's the best touchdown bet on the [27:40] board also dk metcalf i think it's been very highly talked about already about how successful [27:45] he was even with geno smith that quarterback you're getting right now around plus 210 odds [27:49] to be able to score so i think that's a very solid look and then i'm going to take a quarterback [27:54] Geno Smith, he rushed for a touchdown in the preseason, also rushed for one in his last start against Jacksonville when he played last season. [28:00] So getting it around plus 600, I think is fairly decent odds.”

SEA 17, DEN 16 — ESPN's Week 1 game record confirms Geno Smith scored no rushing touchdown in SEA 17, DEN 16, so the anytime-TD prop settled lost as recorded. (Geno Smith 0 rushing touchdowns)

“i'm taking Najee Harris over three and a half receptions versus the bangles that's at plus 105”

PIT 23, CIN 20 — ESPN's Week 1 box score records Najee Harris with 2 receptions in PIT 23, CIN 20, confirming the over settled lost as recorded. (Najee Harris 2 receptions)

“[13:20] Another year recovered from the knee surgery, and you could see kind of his mobility increasing as the season went on. [13:26] And also last year, like tops in the NFL in accuracy and yards per pass completion. [13:30] And you touched on an upgraded offensive line is going to give him more time to throw in the pocket. [13:34] And also, you mentioned this as well, a below average pass defense that could lead to more shootouts. [13:40] I think that defense is a little overrated just going on that Super Bowl run. [13:44] I think there's a lot of potential here for over 40 touchdowns, and I love it at 10 to 1. [13:48] Brandon well first of all do you like Burrow as well and uh is there anyone you like in this market”

NFL.com lists Patrick Mahomes first with 41 passing touchdowns, not Joe Burrow.

“[22:14] me the yards give me the you give me everything I'm not sure he's gonna get there with anything [22:18] else but carolina already had 600 attempts last year i think they get to 650 plus with mecca do [22:24] running the offense so baker mayfield 650 attempts if he actually plays all year 2 percent in reception rate I actually have Baker throwing 19 picks which is my highest projected total [22:36] And so at 16 to one, he's a pretty clear play for me. Joe, what do you think? [22:43] I'm going with tried and true. I'm going to go with Stafford, Matthew Stafford at 20 to one. [22:48] Obviously he finished last season with the most, or tied at least with Trevor Lawrence at 17. [22:53] Eighth in total pass attempts last year with the second most yards per attempt.”

NFL.com lists Davis Mills and Dak Prescott tied for the most interceptions with 15; Matthew Stafford was not the leader.

“[35:07] just kind of like the Browns because another team going to have to run, [35:10] but should still be a solid overall team. Yeah. I like that call. [35:15] All right. Let's jump to rushing touchdowns and Jill going to you first on [35:21] this one. You're the touchdown wizard here. [35:24] what are you looking for in this one I mean really it just comes down to two simple things [35:29] skill and opportunity and this isn't a sexy pick at all it's Derrick Henry at seven to one [35:35] even just over the last three seasons like last year for example he was on pace for almost 400”

NFL.com lists Jamaal Williams first with 17 rushing touchdowns, not Derrick Henry.

“second ago Chris and uh I really like Ja'Marr Chase at nine to one uh I'm very high on the Bengals and him this year I for example I really like him to win offensive player of the year this year at 30 to one. But let's just talk about receiving touchdowns. So touchdown wise, finished with 13 touchdowns last year, which was three less than Cooper cup on 70 less targets. I think that's important to know. He was 19th overall in targets as a rookie. Again, I just think that there's so much room for potential, especially from the short game and then as well in the red zone. Only had 12 passes to him inside the 20 last year with seven catches in 2021. That's 51st on the list for all pass catchers in the NFL. So if we even just say we double that and put it maybe in the top 20, it's just that much more upside and more potential for touchdowns. And another thing that I'm looking at, too, and this is a hedge opportunity of why I'm on Burrow and then also taking Chase from a receiving touchdown standpoint. Over the last four seasons, the quarterback that throws the most touchdowns or the second most touchdowns, their top wide receiver also finishes first or second in receiving touchdowns. Now, that doesn't sound like a huge leap to think, but if you just look at the last four years, Tom Brady was first last year.”

NFL.com lists Davante Adams first with 14 receiving touchdowns, not Ja'Marr Chase.

“But I'm actually going with the Colts at 16 to one for best regular season record.”

Official NFL standings confirm the recorded settlement.

“Jill, how about a worst record pick? Well, the worst team, the low-hanging fruit, is obviously the Texans at three to one. Obviously, there's just a lot of holes on that offense and just throughout the roster in general. But I'm going to go with the sentimental pick, the hard knocks pick. I'm going with the Detroit Lions at 12 to one.”

Official NFL standings confirm the recorded settlement.

“Jill, how about a worst record pick? Well, the worst team, the low-hanging fruit, is obviously the Texans at three to one. Obviously, there's just a lot of holes on that offense and just throughout the roster in general. But I'm going to go with the sentimental pick, the hard knocks pick. I'm going with the Detroit Lions at 12 to one. I'm going specifically because of quarterback play. Like Jared Goff is probably the least inspiring quarterback. If we're going to talk about quarterback rankings, I'm interested to see where he ranks on your list, Brandon, when it comes out on the Action Network website. But then you just look at if at any point he struggles and Campbell has to go to the bench. You've got David Blau, Tim Boyle, a trio wide receivers that look, I like Amon Ross St. Brown. But let's be real, it's a bottom five trio in the NFL. I'm not inspired at all by this offense. And I think year over year improvement is just not as evident as the hard knocks interviews and watching it as you want to believe. There's a lot of holes on this roster. They only have three wins last year. One of it was a week 18 against a resting Packers squad, a Cardinals with a banged up Kyler Murray and no Hopkins and a Vikings game where many basically gave it away at the end. That was the only way that they've gotten to their wins and path of victory. A lot of people will point to their spread record and how they were feisty and how they were staying in games. No, I'm going to just say straight up. Lions are going to be, again, the worst team in the NFL. Win total at six and a half is plus money. It's a plus 135 taking the under.”

Official NFL standings confirm the recorded settlement.

“mistaken because you can't be a Cowboys fan and not have a tough skin by this stage so I've heard it all I'm numb to the criticism I'm numb to the you know just trying to really stab me in the front and back of my heart you know so um but I'm with you I actually I'm like I'm pretty down on my cow I'm the glass half empty fan of the Cowboys just to put that out there so I'm with you I and I'm going to be betting them to miss the playoffs as well and the lack of depth at key skill positions”

Official NFL standings confirm the recorded settlement.

“I mean, Brady, a quarterback, they're one and four in five games versus the Saints, oh, and four during the regular season. And so I'd like the Saints to be able to come through and maybe even win this division. But I'm going to take them to make the playoffs at plus 120.”

Official NFL standings confirm the recorded settlement.

“So most points allowed and then fewest allowed. Wow. I mean, again, I think I can understand bad team to allow a lot of points, a good team to not allow a lot of points. Got it. OK, but still like Jill, why don't you start us off here? Like how in the world do you land on this one? Yeah. And when you look at the market, there's eight teams all within the plus 600 to plus 1000 range. And then it jumps to plus 2000 for the Raiders and another team that is at 20 to one that I'm picking, which is the New York Giants at 20 to one.”

Official NFL standings confirm the recorded settlement.

“All right, how about fewest points allowed? We'll go Jill first, and then I think Brandon's got some thoughts, too, on Jill's picks. Yeah, so this correlates to the best record in the league market that Brandon had alluded to earlier. So I'm going with the Eagles at 20 to one because this might be their strongest defensive front they've had really since the early 2000s. Definitely 2018 is reminiscent of that if you look at top to bottom roster wise.”

Official NFL standings confirm the recorded settlement.

“So I like the Chargers here at 10 to one to score the most”

Official NFL standings confirm the recorded settlement.

“October. Maybe I'll have a big payout. All right, Jill, we're going to go on the first coach fired. But in response to the commanders potentially getting off to a great start, Jill, why Ron Rivera might be, it might be time. Yeah. And I'm eyeing it specifically Ron Rivera at eight to one, mainly because of the volatility of the ownership of Washington.”

Frank Reich was fired before Ron Rivera in the 2022 season, so Rivera was not the first coach fired (NFL).

“Jill, you said you had a long shot though. I'm curious who you got here. Yeah, I'm going to keep it short and sweet. So I'm going with Robert Sala at 14 to one”

Frank Reich was fired before Robert Saleh in the 2022 season, so Saleh was not the first coach fired (NFL).

“So Justin Herbert is my best bet to win MVP in 2022.”

Official NFL Honors reporting confirms the recorded settlement.

“with Lamar Jackson sitting around 20 to 1 they are favored to win the AFC North and they're not going to have that type of injury luck like they had last season like he missed five games last year the Ravens were one and four in those games they were eight and three like before they the injury that he suffered like when he was playing Cleveland last year as well just from an odds tracking standpoint entering the season he had 12 to 1 odds to win MVP before he got hurt and he was plus 800. So sitting right now at 20 to one for a former MVP, especially like he's still in his prime. I think that's a pretty solid value.”

Official NFL Honors reporting confirms the recorded settlement.

“we're not going to head quarterback. So we'll start with Jill. Who do you like for offensive rookie of the year? Yeah. And I mean, it really does just talking about the Steelers. It really does depend about how we see Mitch Trubisky and how he performs because there's a lot of off season talk and he has mentioned in press conferences that he is going to be the starter. Take that with a grain of salt. Yeah. So I'm going with a pair of wide receivers that are, I'm going to hitch my wagon to a pair of wide receivers that with quarterbacks, I trust. So first one is going to be Skyy Moore at 12 to one.”

Garrett Wilson, not Skyy Moore, won the 2022 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year Award (NFL).

“Joe Gallant, that leads to your pick that it kind of fits all the criteria Brandon just laid out. Yeah absolutely And I was going to just add to what Brandon was saying because Brandon Staley is the favorite right now again this year And he was the fave last year And I feel like if this was the award for most inspiring like postgame speech like yeah him and Mike Tomlin they going to be co But Staley and just the volatility of this, I'm not going to take a favorite right off the hop on that. Although I would say Tomlin at 28 to 1, if he could somehow win 10 games with Mitch Trubisky at quarterback, just name the award after him after that. So I'm going to go with Doug Pederson of the Jacksonville Jaguars at 18 to 1.”

Brian Daboll, not Doug Pederson, won the 2022 AP Coach of the Year Award (NFL).

“uh before we get to uh brandon's pick jill who do you like comeback player of the year this season yeah just to go more with what brandon was saying like obviously looking at quarterbacks like marcus mariota like sitting there around you know 18 maybe 20 to 1 depending on the book pretty much discarded from the league like since 2019 like if he somehow gets the atlanta falcons this roster to like eight or nine wins again locked and loaded because again this team is projected four or five wins at best uh same thing mitch trubisky as we were talking about if he was somehow to do that but again i would probably more lean to tomlin's coach of the year candidacy more than trubisky's comeback player of the year aspect so based on talent and upside i'm going christian mccaffrey i know we're going to buck the trend here about quarterbacks but he's going to be given so much opportunity and again it's not a coincidence like he's being taken in the top two picks in every fantasy draft he's consensus pick their injuries are always a concern I mean we said the same thing and look Derek Henry is the favorite right now for this award and he's coming off a pretty devastating foot injury as well so I'm gonna look at Christian McCaffrey”

Geno Smith, not Christian McCaffrey, won the 2022 AP Comeback Player of the Year Award (NFL).

“Let's get into some picks. We'll start with Jill. What do you got for us? Yeah, I'm taking a pair of LSU Tigers. Going to be doing the gritty on this one. We're going with Justin Jefferson at 16 to 1. Two seasons with Minnesota. 196 balls over 3000 receiving yards 18 touchdowns uh it's going to come down to kirk cousins really though cousins thrown over 30 touchdowns in three or four seasons and they're probably going to have to get closer to 40 touchdowns i'd imagine win at least 10 games just to correlate for that for jefferson to get there but i think the yardage is there to have a big year and then of course Ja'Marr Chase going to try to catch the tail of the comet here uh 81 catches over 1400 receiving yards 13 touchdowns pretty much if it wasn't Cooper Cup and Jonathan Taylor like you could make a legitimate case that Ja'Marr Chase could have won this in his rookie season also just to start the year part of this is almost kind of like a CLV style play because they're playing the Steelers and Cowboys to start the year if he comes out of the gate and has 200 receiving errors and two touchdowns like just using that as a bar metric those odds are going to drop significantly and you're not going to be able to get that kind of price for the rest of the year so the borough connection is undeniable. I think the Bengals still need to win 10 more games again this year for chase to be considered. But at these odds, I'm willing to take a stab to find out if the Bengals were a fluke.”

Justin Jefferson, not Ja'Marr Chase, won the 2022 AP Offensive Player of the Year Award (NFL).

“Jill Gallant, what's your pick for defensive player of the year? Yeah, I was going to say I love Aaron Donald. I think Aaron Donald deserves to be the favorite just based on the odds and implied probability. but I think voters will turn to knowing that, you know, you have Jalen Ramsey in that defense, you have Bobby Wagner as well. And that kind of maybe takes away some from some of his accomplishments. So I am going to go for a little bit of a long shot here. We're going to be taking Darius, AKA Shaquille Leonard at 33 to one.”

Nick Bosa, not Shaquille Leonard, won the 2022 AP Defensive Player of the Year Award (NFL).