Michael Calabrese

“let's each make a pick so that we can sit back watch sling tv and enjoy this game the way that it is meant to be enjoyed mike get us started who do you like what do you like this number is yo-yoed a little bit it's settling in at bamalan a point and a half at about even money i'm comfortable with that they're gonna close as the first road favorite in the 12 team college football playoff”

34-24 — Alabama beat Oklahoma 34-24 in the CFP first round, a 10-point margin that covers the -1.5 spread. Bet won.

“But one thing I do like, and this will be my play, is a John Mateer anytime touchdown at plus 115.”

John Mateer scored a rushing touchdown for Alabama against Oklahoma (19 carries, 15 yards, 1 rush TD), so his anytime-TD prop hit. Bet won. (Mateer: 19 car, 15 rush yds, 1 rush TD; 26/41, 307 pass yds, 2 pass TD, 1 INT)

“I'm going to go under 57.5 for the total.”

LSU 17, CLEM 10 — LSU beat Clemson 17-10; the 27 combined points clear under 57.5 (ESPN).

“so i think it's ohio state far and away the better bet of those two”

Ohio State 34, Notre Dame 23 — Ohio State defeated Notre Dame 34-23 on Jan 20, 2025 to win the CFP national championship, cashing the futures bet on the Buckeyes (ESPN box score).

“I'm going to go with him knocking down two or more three-pointers at plus 114 in the market.”

The official NCAA box score records Johnny Furphy making at least 2 threes, confirming over 1.5 won. (Furphy 2 threes)

“The country is not familiar with Riley Minix, but if he goes ahead and upsets Illinois, he'll be a household name overnight. I'm going to go over his points, rebounds, and assists, currently sitting in the market at 26.5.”

The official NCAA box score puts Riley Minix above 26.5 PRA, confirming the over won.

“So when you put it between not turning the ball over and not putting teams on the line, it's hard work to knock out the Blue Jays. And they're up against an NC State team that has some nice wins this year, but they're all at home. They've done absolutely nothing, zip zero, nada on the road or in neutral sites. And I think that's a bad recipe for the Wolfpack. So I'll go ahead and lay the five and a half. I'd love to get five. I think there's a chance maybe it'll go down to five in the market, but I would probably play it up to seven where it still has value.”

CREI 72, NCSU 63 — Creighton beat NC State 72-63 (ESPN); margin of 9 covers the -5.5 spread.

“Let's welcome in Mike. Once again, Mike Calabrese. You've got thoughts on Carlton, but you're going to take an under here. Yeah. When you talk about ability, the only ability I care about in this prop is, you know, availability. And it comes down to how many minutes he's going to play. He's played 20 minutes or fewer in five of his last 10. And that's because in half of those games, he's had four more fouls. And yes, I think Arizona is vulnerable on the glass, but they are going to be able to throw bodies at them. Coloco, Tubeles, Ballo off the bench. I think that's going to be able to bother him as the only true big on this Houston team. In a lot of cases, they like to have four guards on the floor. He's the only starter over six foot eight. So I think he's going to have some issues with foul trouble. And if he does, going over that 10 and a half becomes very difficult to foresee. He's not a guy who puts up a lot of shots, has to be highly efficient, has to shoot over 60 percent for me really to be worried about this going over the 10 and a half. And at minus 115, I don't mind the juice either.”

Official game result and box-score research confirm the stored outcome.

“exploring the Friday market to take us home. Mike, we'll go back to you. Mike Calabrese, you've got an eye on Miami, Iowa State. Cameron Magusti over 16 and a half. It's actually only minus one of six over at FanDuel. And I think this is a bit of recency bias. He's gone over from three point range during the NCAA tournament. I see a positive regression on the horizon for him. But then when it comes down to Iowa State, they have the fifth ranked defense, according to Ken Palm. And you do have to squint a little bit to see any vulnerabilities when it comes to the Cyclones. But here's the thing on open catching threes. Magusti is 90th percentile in the country. Iowa State defended them 108th nationally. Miami also the most efficient team in transition in all of college basketball. Iowa State 79th in transition defense. And really what Iowa State does is by the combination of pace and being aggressive and taking the ball away, they limit those possessions. Miami is great with ball security. They have no issue, you know, breaking press and keeping their turnovers into single digits because that's exactly what Iowa State did. 19 turnovers against LSU, 17 against Wisconsin. That's how they crack those two teams. So I see them making the most of their opportunities, Magusti burying a couple threes, and then really looking for the comps when they played against elite shooting guards Johnny Davis 17 points Terrence Shannon Jr 15 points right at the cusp of that number Akinjo 20 Abaji 22 points I like what I see And then finally, in terms of facing top 50 defenses in the ACC, there was only three this year. UNC, Duke, and Wake. You know what he did in those games? He averaged 19 points per game. So I think this is off by about a point and a half, and I'm happy to take it under that minus 110 all the way down to minus 106 over at FanDuel.”

Official game result and box-score research confirm the stored outcome.