BJ Cunningham

“I like them to miss the playoffs at plus 175.”

Official Masters results confirm that Phillies to miss the playoffs settled lost as recorded.

“Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks starter, 12-1 to win the Cy Young.”

Official Masters results confirm that Zac Gallen to win NL Cy Young settled lost as recorded.

“I just ended up fading [22:22] the White Sox and betting the Guardians.”

Official Masters results confirm that Guardians to win AL Central settled lost as recorded.

“i actually have an mvp bet from this division i like jordan alvarez a 12 to 1”

Official Masters results confirm that Yordan Alvarez to win AL MVP settled lost as recorded.

“[3:59] You just can't let it go away. [4:01] Well, Senegal has already dropped from 100-1 to 50-1. [4:03] That would have been my bet, but they've gotten a little too short. [4:05] So I love Serbia at 80-1. [4:08] They're in a pretty favorable group with Brazil, Switzerland, and Cameroon. [4:11] Switzerland, a team I'm not really high on. [4:13] I don't think it really has the talent to compete in this group.”

FIFA's 2022 World Cup records show Serbia did not win the tournament.

“[39:09] let's get favorite bet to win the World Cup, the 2022 World Cup. [39:14] BJ, we'll start with you and then Leibov, please. [39:16] Yeah, for me, it's England at 6-1. [39:20] Listen, a long shot has pretty much never actually won the World Cup. [39:23] So if you really are serious about winning and picking a winner, [39:27] obviously we love taking all these long shots because they have value. [39:29] But one of the favorites is going to win this World Cup.”

FIFA's 2022 World Cup records show England did not win the tournament.

“So at 200 to 1, I love the Moroccan side to potentially win the World Cup.”

FIFA's 2022 World Cup records show Morocco did not win the tournament.

“so i am on the red raiders on the money line at minus 115”

78-73 — Duke beat Texas Tech 78-73 in the Sweet 16; Texas Tech moneyline busts (ESPN).

“No, I'm actually going to disagree with stuff. I actually like UCLA minus two. And I agree that there are some wording designs for UCLA in terms of, you know, the catch and shoot threes and defending off pick and rolls and everything. But, you know, North Carolina is a top 20 team in terms of efficiency off all screens. and that's how they got that's basically how they beat baylor well ucla is top 50 and top 50 in defending those off ball screens and also be able to handle baycott down low because they're a top 50 team in terms of defending post upsets so that's going to put a lot of pressure on north carolina to knock down those three pointers which if you look at their shot quality stats they are due for some negative regression shooting the ball ucla you're going to see a ton of mid-range jumpers and for good reason because they're top 10 in terms of efficiency from the mid-range while North Carolina is only average at defending from the mid range. It's going to be very difficult. It's from North Carolina, you know, obviously if they're able to dominate the defensive glass, then that's great, but not being able to turn opponents over, that's going to put a lot of pressure on them to keep UCLA off the offensive glass. So we'll see if Hawke has plays. I mean, if, if he's, if he's not a hundred percent, I still do like UCLA at minus two or better, but I'm actually on the Bruins in this matchup.”

66-73 — North Carolina beat UCLA 73-66 in the Sweet 16; UCLA lost outright by 7, busting -2 (ESPN).

“and I think they be able to dominate Miami down low So I love the Trojans to cover minus one and a half in advance the second round”

68-66 — Miami beat USC 68-66; USC lost outright, so -1.5 spread busts (ESPN).

“So I really don't think the wild cats should be underdogs at all here. So I love Davidson money. line plus two, whatever you want to do, throw it around Robin. That's my best bet for the entire Friday. You like Davidson to make a run this year? Yeah, they are, I believe, around eight or”

74-73 — Michigan State beat Davidson 74-73; Davidson moneyline busts (ESPN).

“So I love Seton Hall on the money line, minus 110. I think they should be [35:45] closer to two or three point favorites.”

69-42 — TCU beat Seton Hall 69-42; Seton Hall moneyline busts (ESPN).

“if you looking for a team to get hot and run through this tournament Alabama is there the other top four seeds Look they obviously top four for a reason They all under 10 to one for a reason I really don think there much value in taking them because they really just traded all season long And a lot of them what funny if you look at, for example, like Auburn and Tennessee, they've been, if the entire tournament was played in Knoxville or Auburn, like one of those teams might win the actual NCAA tournament, but that's not the case. They haven't been that great away from home. So for me, even though Kentucky's the three seed. They're clearly, in my opinion, I think the best team in the conference, but at a price of plus 190, I'm definitely not playing them. So Alabama 15 to one as a shot would be where I'm going in the SEC.”

Alabama lost in the second round of the 2022 SEC Tournament to Vanderbilt, 76-82; Tennessee won the tournament, beating Texas A&M 65-50 on March 13, 2022, so the Alabama futures bet lost.

“Just in general, betting a starting pitcher to win the World Series MVP. It only happened four times since 2003 Josh Beckett with the Marlins in 2003 Cole Hamels in 2008 with the Phillies Madison Bumgarner 2014 with the Giants and Steven Strasburg 2019 with the Nationals So really it's got to be a front end starter when, who wins both of his starts and potentially maybe even comes in later in the series out of the bullpen to secure it. And you really have to be the best player, you know, basically on the field and has to be a low scoring world series. So betting, starting pitching, and especially, I don't know if going back in history, I know it hasn't happened since 2000 of betting a reliever to win i i don't know if it's ever happened before but so i'm kind of staying away from all the pitchers in the series because outside of maybe franberg valdez i don't see like a front end number one starter that's going to pull off you know what those four guys did in their world series so for me i like Yuli Gurriel at 27 to 1”

Jorge Soler, not Yuli Gurriel, won the 2021 World Series MVP Award (MLB).

“minus 122 So I do think there some value on Shakhtar at plus one at minus 105 at home to get a result”

UEFA's results record Real Madrid winning by more than one over Shakhtar.

“kiev at one and then how about this one barcelona zero points foot of the table we'll get to that match next but first let's start with a game that is going to be a lot of fun i think just from a game theory standpoint byron minus 250 favorites against benfica who are seven to one the draw plus 375 this is a 3 p.m kickoff on wednesday bj i am very ready to do something i think i'm going to regret yeah this one's gonna suck because i'm taking benfica plus one and a half and minus 125 Bayern Munich overvalued here and let me kind of explain this because i don't think people see Bayern Munich, they see the result this weekend against Leverkusen, they win 5-1. Oh my gosh, Bayern Munich's the best team in the world. How could you ever bet against them? Okay, let me kind of explain this a little bit. Bayern last season wildly overperformed their expected goals numbers. They scored 99 goals in the Bundesliga off of 75.23 expected goals. And a lot of that has to do with the fact that they have one of the most clinical finishers in the world in Robin Lewandowski, who makes up for a lot of that. So Bayern Munich's not going to regress all the way down to, you know, 75 goals, but it's going to meet somewhere in the middle. They can't just keep up the scoring rate Now this season they been a little closer to their expected goals I been closer to what their actual goal numbers are But I actually had to go in and make manual adjustments to my projections because I was way off on this one. And I can still only get Bayern Munich to minus 135. And a lot of that has to do with the fact that Benefica is a really, really good team. They're probably the second best team in Europe outside of the major five leagues behind Ajax. They lead, they led Portugal last season with a plus 35.3 expected goal differential. this season, plus 14.3 expected goal differential in eight matches. Portugal is the sixth most difficult league in Europe. So this is absolutely a legit team. They have some experience on their back line. Nicholas Atamendi and Jan Vertonghen, two longtime Premier League defenders, will be able to hopefully hold Robert Lewandowski in check and some of the other attacking players. Benefica from a squad value standpoint, also $279 million according to transfer market. That is the second highest behind Ajax outside of the main five leagues. They also just drilled by Barcelona three, nothing in their last champions league match. So this is not a team to be taken lightly. Who's especially at home. And also, you know, based on the ranking points, Germany, the gap between Germany and Portugal is actually closer than the gap between Germany and England. So I don't think that Bayern Munich should even be close to minus two 50 on the road. I mean, other projections, It's like 538 has only a 52% info goal. It only has them at 58%. So I'm going to hop on the pain train and take Benefica plus one and a half at minus one 25. And, you know, eventually maybe I'll wave the white flag on Byron, but not this week, I guess. No, not this week. Definitely not this week. My friend, I like Benfica seven to one on the money line.”

UEFA's results record Bayern winning by more than 1.5 over Benfica.

“Yeah, of course. All right, let's move on. Juventus plus 110 favorites against Zenit St. Petersburg the draw is plus 210 zen at plus 290 3 p.m this will be the last game we talk about because it's the last game of match week three i've got nothing on this one i might look at the draw but probably stay away bj what about you i want to make a case for zen it in this match i mean first off they looked really good against malmo uh like we already spoke spoke about four nothing went at home i'll created them 2.81 expected goals to 0.45 but secondly they've been dominating the Russian Premier League. They obviously, they lost their last two matches to Sochi and Arsenal Tua, but the expected goals is why we can't just take results at face value. Yeah, they lost those two matches, but they helped created both of those teams 5.2 expected goals to 1.73. And in the Russian Premier League this season, they're averaging 2.11 expected goals per match, only allowing 1.08. Malcolm, the former Bordeaux and Barcelona attacking midfielder, has a 0.72 expected goal plus expected assist per 90 rate rate in the Russian Premier League this season. It will be a problem for Juventus' back line. I mean, listen, Juventus' offensive numbers have not been as good since Cristiano Ronaldo left. They averaged two non-penalty expected goals per match last season and this season. It's down to 1.75. And in Serie A, they're eighth in shot-creating actions, 10th in touches inside the opponent's penalty area, and 10th in box entries. Now, as far as their defense is concerned, they've been okay, not great. 8.8 non-penalty expected goals allowed in eight matches, but they've allowed the third most touches in their own final third. And they just lost the expected goals battle to Roma despite winning one, nothing on Sunday. And this is another weather situation. It's also going to be 38 degrees and raining in St. Petersburg on Wednesday night when it's in the mid sixties in Turin. this week. So I have this match projected closer to a pick them given, you know, events, the struggles offensively. So yeah, give me Zenit plus half a goal at minus one 25. That sounds like a lovely, lovely bet. All right. Let's move on to the final section of the program.”

UEFA's results record Juventus defeating Zenit, so Zenit did not cover plus 0.5.

“There is value, but is that your value play? No, I like, I mean, I already mentioned, I like the Red Sox at 14 to one. I just think that they have a good matchup against the Rays if they can get past the AL wild card and then you get to the ALCS. You have a chance, a good chance to hedge against the White Sox or the Astros. You know, I've already mentioned it. Their offense is incredible. It's basically, you know, the bullpen was good over the first half of the season and then it just completely fell off in the second half. So if they can find some of that, if Matt Barnes and Adovino can get back to their form over the first half of the season, the Red Sox do have a chance with three starters and their lineup. The question, there are, you know, obviously advantages for all the other teams, but I, that's my value plays the Red Sox at 14 to one. One of my favorite things to do to kind of expand upon World Series futures is play World Series matchups where you can find even better odds, which is also very tough to hit for good reasons.”

MLB's 2021 postseason record shows Boston did not win the World Series.

“those futures odds for the Giants, I mean, they might be minus 110 probably or somewhere close to even money to win the NL through the four teams.”

MLB's 2021 postseason record shows San Francisco did not win the NL pennant.

“But what I honestly bet that I love for this because I do agree that RB Leipzig does have the pedigree to get through this I mean they had the best expected goal differential in Germany last year And like Anthony said having one of the best strikers in the Bundesliga and Andre Silva to actually cure their problems in front of net. So I think the bet is PSG at plus 500 to not make it to the round of 16. That's my favorite bet from this group.”

UEFA's 2021-22 results list PSG second in Group A, which advanced PSG to the Round of 16.

“given all that turnover and their offensive ineptness. So I do think there's some value on Wolfsburg at plus 110 to qualify for the group So I got two bets in this group You know Wolfsburg looked great through their first three matches You know they kind of overachieved a little bit last season but they kept their entire squad together and they added some depth through the transfer market So it's a really nice team.”

UEFA's 2021-22 results list Wolfsburg fourth in Group G, outside the two Round of 16 places.

“My favorite bet with Brighton is 10 to one to be the top team outside of the big six”

Brighton was not the highest-finishing club outside the traditional big six in 2021-22 (Premier League).

“So let's move on to the Golden Boot. Another really fun market to bet. The Premier League, I mean, these soccer markets, It's like Christmas. It's the best. I think that, of course, I think there's a ton of people you can bet. I think it's not really worth chasing the Harry Canes of the world at the top of the board. But there are some numbers further down the list that I think are not only fun to bet, but also provide some value. BJ, what do you think, where will you spend some money, some beer money in the golden boot market? Well, I already spent some money on Ollie Watkins and then Aston Villa for some inexplicable reason just went out and signed Danny Ings for competition purposes. So I've lit those tickets on fire, but I'm going to go down the board a little bit more and I'm going to go to your Evertonians and I'm going to go with Dominique Calvert-Lewin at 35 to 1. Anthony kind of talked about this when you're betting golden futures. You basically want a guy who's going to be on penalties and doesn't really have a lot of competition up front if you're going to be betting one of the guys on one of the teams outside the top four. And Calvert-Lewin fits that mold. I mean, last season, he's not only Everton's number one striker, but he's one of the best in the Premier League. He created the fourth most expected goals at 18.12 in 33 appearances, scoring 16 of them. In fact, he had the third best non-penalty expected goal per 90-minute scoring rate in the league. he didn't take penalties last year but gilfey sigurdsson was the one on penalties and if you do a quick google search you'll figure out that he's not going to be on the team probably this year so there's a good chance that calvert lewin will be the penalty taker so calvert lewin's a very versatile uh striker he's got great attack positioning deadly right foot plays well in the air in fact 17 of his 14 career purely purely goals have come off of headers so i love his value at 35 to one when he should be probably like fourth or fifth on the sport at 2025 to one. So I think you're getting good value on Calvert-Lewin. Yeah, he was near the top of the list to start the”

Dominic Calvert-Lewin did not win the 2021-22 Premier League Golden Boot (Premier League).

“And then my three relegation bets, Elche in La Liga. It's very rare that a club that had the fewest expected goals and allowed the most expected goals in their league somehow stayed up. But that's exactly what Elche did. They only had 30.3 expected points in their campaign. So it's just shocking that they are able to finish 17th. They're minus 125 to get relegated. They didn't do anything in the transfer market. They play a 4-4-2 formation, very defensive, but they're not really that great in it. Dead last and shots allowed inside the penalty area, shots inside the six-yard box, shot creating actions and passes leading to a shot. So just a really, really bad team that's probably going to get relegated.”

Elche was not relegated from La Liga after the 2021-22 season (ESPN standings).

“And then I have a long shot in La Liga to get relegated Valencia at plus 650”

Valencia was not relegated from La Liga after the 2021-22 season (ESPN standings).

“And then one more, this will be a quick one, Salernitana in Italy. They're one of the newly promoted teams to be relegated, minus 137. I went and did some research, and this is just shocking. They had a negative 14.29 expected goal differential in Serie B, which is, I mean, it's just almost impossible that they gained automatic promotion.”

Salernitana was not relegated from Serie A after the 2021-22 season (ESPN standings).

“Yeah, I think in the NL, I think it's still the Brewers right now. They're 12 to one, you know, beyond the Giants. And really with the Brewers, they have three of the best starting pitchers in the National League. That is going to cause a lot of problems for all the other teams throughout the playoffs. Corbin Burns, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddie Peralta all have an ERA under two and a half. They have K for nine, right over 10. I mean, these guys are incredible starting pitchers. And then they hand it off to a bullpen that's still one of the best in baseball and has one of the best closers in baseball in Josh Hader. Now their offense hasn't really been up to par, but Christian Yelich was hurt for most of the first half of the season. They just traded for willy a dame so it's going to be a really good team that's going to make the playoffs they're probably going to have you know maybe one or two maybe home field advantage for at least one of the rounds so getting them at 12 to 1 when some teams above them you know are still questioned still might you know only make the nl wild card like the padres or the dodgers i think 12 to 1 still a great price on the Brewers to win the World Series As far as the pennant I actually going to go with the Phillies I think”

Brewers lost the 2021 NLDS to the Braves 3 games to 1 and did not win the World Series, so the future lost (Wikipedia).

“As far as the pennant I actually going to go with the Phillies I think [37:35] the Phillies have the best value at 25 to one to win the NL.”

Phillies finished 82-80, second in the NL East, and missed the 2021 playoffs, so the NL pennant future lost (Wikipedia).

“I think the Blue Jays, I think they're around 20 to one right now to win the AL.”

Blue Jays finished 91-71 and missed the 2021 playoffs, one game behind Boston and New York for the AL wild cards, so the AL pennant future lost (Wikipedia).

“long. I think Zerillo early in the season, put out max Muncy at a hundred to one. I don't know what his odds are right now. 25 to one. He's been, he's been the Dodgers best hitter by far. And I think he's got like a four 15 weighted on base average. So if he gets incredibly hot and the Dodgers take over the giants and win the NL West and get the number one seed in the national league, and he's their number one guy, it's not crazy to think that he could hit the MVP at 25 to one right now. I'm doing, I'm putting 200 on it right now.”

Bryce Harper won the 2021 NL MVP award; Max Muncy did not win, so the MVP futures bet lost (Wikipedia).

“So I've played Denmark to win this group at plus 260.”

UEFA's EURO 2020 results record Belgium winning Group B, not Denmark.

“They are my my favorite long shot to win the tournament at 150 to one.”

UEFA's EURO 2020 results record Italy as champion, not the Czech Republic.

“Oh, it's just because of my pale skin. Yes, Alexander Eszak every way I possibly can. I've got him 101 to win the golden boot three to one to lead the Swedes in goals and minus 22 to have more goals than Marcus Berg just every possible way I love Alexander Eszak I don't even think Sweden honestly I mean they'd love to have Zlatan here but I don't really think they need him”

UEFA records Cristiano Ronaldo as the EURO 2020 Golden Boot winner, not Alexander Isak.

“with Anthony, Sweden second place. And you know what? Give me, give me Spain nine to one. I think they, I think I just thought about it more and I'm going to guess, you know what, let's do it. Spain nine to one. Cause they actually have a pretty good path too.”

UEFA's EURO 2020 final result records Italy beating England on penalties, so Spain did not win the tournament.

“And I also want to just mention Slovakia because I do think that they're the worst team in this entire tournament. If you look at their roster, they have basically two guys. Screener from Inter Milan and Duvenik, who's the goalkeeper for Newcastle. uh i'm i've i have a bet on them uh at plus 750 to be the lowest scoring team in the entire tournament um they only have just 1.19 expectables for match in a fairly easy uh qualifying group”

UEFA's EURO 2020 group results show Slovakia did not finish as the tournament's lowest-scoring team.

“memphis to pie uh for golden ball at 50 to 1 you know if you're talking about a guy who is under”

UEFA named Gianluigi Donnarumma EURO 2020 Player of the Tournament, not Memphis Depay.