Matt Moore

“Yeah. In the series. There's a couple I like here. Mikal Bridges plus one 40 head to head versus Fox at draft Kings. I think is a really great bet. Fox does most of his damage in 45 sets in Spain, pick and rolls for the San Antonio Spurs where they wind up with him getting downhill on a big that doesn really work as well with how the Knicks defend those actions and meanwhile Mikal Bridges like I talked about he he had a lot of catch and shoot opportunities he had a lot of open looks He able to create off the bounce He going to get going in second units So I think he's going to have more points in the series. So Bridges plus 140 I think is a good look.”

Across the 2026 NBA Finals (Knicks won 4-1), De'Aaron Fox outscored Mikal Bridges 64-52 (Fox: 7/20/12/18/7; Bridges: 9/20/2/7/14 per game), so Bridges did not out-score Fox head-to-head (ESPN box scores). (Bridges 52 pts (9,20,2,7,14); Fox 64 pts (7,20,12,18,7) across Games 1-5)

“threes leader i've got champagney plus 270 bridges 50 to one and og five to one those are all i think really good value bets there”

OG Anunoby led the 2026 NBA Finals in made threes with 16 (3,2,3,7,1 across Games 1-5), one more than Julian Champagnie's 15 (5,2,3,1,4), so Champagnie did not lead the series (ESPN box scores). (Anunoby 16 3PM (series leader); Champagnie 15 3PM)

“threes leader i've got champagney plus 270 bridges 50 to one and og five to one those are all i think really good value bets there”

OG Anunoby led the 2026 NBA Finals in made threes with 16; Mikal Bridges finished with 8 (0,4,0,1,3 across Games 1-5), well short of the series lead (ESPN box scores). (Bridges 8 3PM (series); Anunoby led with 16)

“I liked the Wolves before the series. That was one of my best bets was I took Wolves to win outright. Escalators on them as well. Great start one game, but it's a great start on that kind of angle of it.”

San Antonio Spurs won the Western Conference semifinal series over Minnesota 4-2 (ESPN).

“No, so like I grabbed OKC, or I grabbed Lakers plus 16 and a half just based off of the number. I make it 10, right? So I've got six points of value. So I'll go ahead and I'll grab it.”

OKC 108, LAL 90 — Thunder beat Lakers 108-90 in Game 1; Lakers lost by 18, more than the 16.5-point spread (ESPN).

“My favorite bet for this series is I took overtimes 1 plus, plus 260, 2 plus overtime games, 20 to 1. That's my favorite bet in the series because that's how close it is.”

Only one game (Game 5, a 117-113 Cleveland overtime win on May 13) went to overtime in the Cavaliers-Pistons series, so the 2-plus-OT-games prop lost (ESPN).

“My best bet on the series is Pistons minus one and a half because of where I've got the number, how I project this. That's the best value play.”

Cleveland won the Eastern Conference semifinal series over Detroit 4-3, winning Game 7 on May 17; Detroit did not even win the series outright, so the Pistons -1.5-games series bet lost (ESPN).

“But I also, you know, with the Spurs, I do think you're right that they're going to win this series. I like Portland to be able to grab. I took them plus two and a half. I think they'd probably win one more game, either game three or game four. And then, you know, from there out, I think it's probably Spurs.”

San Antonio Spurs won the first-round series over the Portland Trail Blazers 4-1, a three-game series margin that busts Portland's +2.5 games number (NBA.com).

“That's a serious thing. I'm on Toronto escalators involuntarily. Actually, on Buckets, our podcast, I took plus two and a half on Raptor series spread, plus one and a half, minus one and a half, and minus two and a half on Raptors.”

The Raptors lost the first-round series to the Cavaliers 4-3, so Raptors -1.5 games (Raptors favored) lost.

“That's a serious thing. I'm on Toronto escalators involuntarily. Actually, on Buckets, our podcast, I took plus two and a half on Raptor series spread, plus one and a half, minus one and a half, and minus two and a half on Raptors.”

The Raptors lost the first-round series to the Cavaliers 4-3, so Raptors -2.5 games (Raptors favored) lost.

“I also like the Pistons a lot tonight. I know that the Cavaliers hung with him the other night. That was with a defense-only lineup. Harden is going to play. And so now it's like halfway in between a defense and an offensive lineup. Cavs have not been good versus these types of defensive teams. They're way under .500 with the 28th-ranked point differential versus top 10 defenses. I think the Pistons roll tonight, even after the game on Friday.”

CLE 113-109 DET — Cavaliers beat Pistons 113-109; Detroit moneyline busts (ESPN).

“Let's start with cover Henry touchdown. So I want to look a lot at what the red zone behaviors of these teams were and with the way that the Seahawks dropped back into zone coverage and the fact that Henry has been so consistently targeted over and over and over again specifically in the red zone like this looks like I love getting this to be able to get either one because you're basically talking about in the red zone, especially with how the Patriots, you talked about this, about how the Patriots and Seahawks both disguise coverages. I think this is going to be a defensive game. I'm on the under. I'll talk about that in a sec, But being able to get either one at DraftKings for plus 105 to me was a sweetheart of a deal. I get to get either one.”

Independent verification agrees: Neither Cooper Kupp nor Hunter Henry scored; the only receiving TDs were Barner (SEA), Hollins and Stevenson (NE).

“Rashid Shaheed, I talked about Rashid as Super Bowl MVP. [28:51] I'm going to be on that as well. [28:53] Anytime touchdown is the safest one.”

Independent verification agrees: Rashid Shaheed did not score; New England's TDs went to Mack Hollins and Rhamondre Stevenson.

“I love Rashid Shahid MVP here at 30-1. I love it.”

Kenneth Walker III (135 rushing yards) was named Super Bowl LX MVP, not Rashid Shaheed.

“Broncos minus three is where I'll plant my flag.”

34-20 — Jaguars beat Broncos 34-20; Denver lost outright and failed to cover -3. Bet lost.

“I think Cade Cunningham is going to be an MVP ballot guy. I bet him for MVP. He's not going to win. I'm going to be like, hey, look at all the CLV I got.”

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won the 2025-26 NBA MVP award, not Cade Cunningham.

“The favorite that I actually have gravitated more towards and have put more and more on is a long shot and it's Alpern Shingun MVP”

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won 2025-26 NBA MVP, not Alperen Sengun (CBS Sports). (2025-26 NBA MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)

“Yeah, I'm on Thunder minus six and a half. Gave us out of his best bet on our podcast buckets.”

OKC 125, HOU 124 — Thunder beat Rockets 125-124 in 2OT, winning by only 1, busting the -6.5 spread (ESPN box score).

“I'm very tepidly on Lakers' money line, not enthusiastically, just like a little bit.”

GS 119, LAL 109 — Warriors beat Lakers 119-109; Los Angeles' moneyline lost (ESPN box score).

“my favorite bet on this game is actually jimmy butler over 10 and a half rebounds and assists”

GS 119, LAL 109 — Jimmy Butler had 5 rebounds and 4 assists (9 combined), under the 10.5 line (ESPN box score). (Jimmy Butler: 5 rebounds, 4 assists)

“Gotta go with Nuggets plus 700.”

The New York Knicks won the 2026 NBA Finals, beating the San Antonio Spurs 4-1 (clinched Game 5, 94-90, on June 13, 2026), so the Denver Nuggets championship futures bet loses.

“The Detroit Pistons, 60-1.”

New York Knicks won the 2026 NBA championship, defeating the San Antonio Spurs 4-1 in the Finals (Game 5, 94-90); Detroit Pistons did not win.

“Victor Wemanyama, MVP, 13-1.”

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won the 2025-26 NBA MVP award, his second consecutive MVP; Victor Wembanyama did not win.

“I bet Pacers to now win the series from behind.”

The Oklahoma City Thunder won the 2025 NBA Finals 4 games to 3 over Indiana, so the Pacers did not win the title (Wikipedia 2025 NBA Finals summary, corroborated by ESPN Finals coverage).

“I bet Pacers or I bet Thunder four two yesterday plus two ninety.”

4-3 — The Thunder won the 2025 NBA Finals in seven games (4-3), clinching with a 103-91 Game 7 win on June 22, not 4-2, so the Thunder-to-win-4-2 bet lost.

“I like the series spread. I'm taking Thunder minus two and a half games. There's a minus one ten out there.”

4-3 — Oklahoma City beat Indiana 4-3 in the 2025 NBA Finals (won the series by only one game, clinching in Game 7, 103-91 on June 22), so the Thunder -2.5 series-games spread lost.

“[2:34:22] On the other hand, I think the market's corrected too far. [2:34:24] This opens at 2.14, and now we're at 2.19. [2:34:27] I make it 2.12. [2:34:28] I like the under anyway. [2:34:29] There is a trend spot here that backs the over, and that team's coming off of a Game 7. [2:34:34] But that's actually just as strongly correlated with the dog in this spot, which is why I like Minnesota so much. [2:34:41] I like Minnesota to take a number of games and extend the series. [2:34:44] I love them plus 2.5 on the series spread line. [2:34:47] I don't think they're going to win this series. [2:34:48] but I do think that they're going to win game one.”

Oklahoma City won the Western Conference Finals 4-1; Minnesota's one win plus the 2.5-game spread (3.5) still falls short of Oklahoma City's four wins. (Series: Oklahoma City 4, Minnesota 1)

“[2:35:29] I have to come back to this because I like Minnesota in the matchup. [2:35:32] I make this line only five. [2:35:33] I love Minnesota plus seven and a half tonight. [2:35:36] And I'm on the under mostly as a play against too much market overcorrection at 219 and a half.”

Thunder 114, Timberwolves 88 — Oklahoma City beat Minnesota 114-88 in Game 1, a 26-point margin that busts Minnesota +7.5.

“[2:37:32] SGA, of course, a massive, massive favorite, similar price to what you can get OKC just to win the series. [2:37:37] Ant-Man plus 450. Jalen Williams and Julius Randle at 20 to 1. Chet Holmgren, 50 to 1. [2:37:43] The guy you just mentioned, Jaden McDaniels, 125 to 1. Is it as easy as those top two guys, SGA and Ant, [2:37:49] or are you going further down the board and maybe something crazy happens and somebody off the board kind of wins conference finals MVP? [2:37:55] Jalen Williams. There's a 25 to one in the market. I got 20 to one. [2:37:59] Okay. Here's the deal. In the regular season,”

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, not Jalen Williams, was named the unanimous 2025 Western Conference Finals MVP. (2025 WCF MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)

“[2:39:37] I also love Chet Holmgren over two and a half blocks, [2:39:39] and Aaron Gordon over two and a half, [2:39:41] and an escalator at three and a half assists. [2:39:43] If they send more help at Joker, when that happens, [2:39:46] AG tends to become more of a playmaker, [2:39:48] because he gets the ball on cuts, and instead of dunking, [2:39:51] he'll then kick it out to shooters, [2:39:52] or he'll make extra plays in transition. [2:39:54] So I love Aaron Gordon over two and a half, [2:39:56] and three and a half assists. [2:39:57] Chet Holmgren, even when he got absolutely trucked by Jokic [2:40:01] in that game, still had four blocks. [2:40:02] So I like Holmgren over two and a half blocks tonight as well.”

OKC 149, DEN 106 — Chet Holmgren had 2 blocks in the Thunder's 149-106 Game 2 win over the Nuggets on May 7, 2025 (ESPN box score); the over 2.5 blocks prop lost. (Chet Holmgren: 2 blocks)

“[2:39:37] I also love Chet Holmgren over two and a half blocks, [2:39:39] and Aaron Gordon over two and a half, [2:39:41] and an escalator at three and a half assists. [2:39:43] If they send more help at Joker, when that happens, [2:39:46] AG tends to become more of a playmaker, [2:39:48] because he gets the ball on cuts, and instead of dunking, [2:39:51] he'll then kick it out to shooters, [2:39:52] or he'll make extra plays in transition. [2:39:54] So I love Aaron Gordon over two and a half, [2:39:56] and three and a half assists. [2:39:57] Chet Holmgren, even when he got absolutely trucked by Jokic”

OKC 149, DEN 106 — Aaron Gordon had 1 assist in the Nuggets' 149-106 Game 2 loss to the Thunder on May 7, 2025 (ESPN box score); the over 2.5 assists prop lost. (Aaron Gordon: 1 assist)

“[2:39:57] Chet Holmgren, even when he got absolutely trucked by Jokic [2:40:01] in that game, still had four blocks.”

OKC 149, DEN 106 — Aaron Gordon had 1 assist in the Nuggets' 149-106 Game 2 loss to the Thunder on May 7, 2025 (ESPN box score); the over 3.5 assists prop lost. (Aaron Gordon: 1 assist)

“[2:42:49] Favorite bet tonight is going to be Celtics over 111.5 on the team total. [2:42:53] Teams just bounce back after those terrible shooting performances. [2:42:56] I looked at that. [2:42:57] The numbers are preposterous for teams in terms of their overhit on the team total [2:43:00] coming off of a performance where they shoot more than 43s [2:43:03] and less than 30% from the field. [2:43:04] That's my favorite bet tonight.”

NY 91, BOS 90 — The Celtics scored only 90 points in their 91-90 loss to the Knicks on May 7, 2025 (ESPN box score); the Celtics team total over 111.5 pick lost. (Boston Celtics: 90 points)

“[2:37:52] Can the Clippers cover the number where they're a six-point favorite at home total sitting at 212? [2:37:57] Yeah, I'm staying away from Cy tonight. [2:38:01] I can't trust the Nuggets because I do think the Clippers are a little bit better. [2:38:07] And the Nuggets last year went into Minnesota after winning three straight and were, like, in position to wrap that series up. [2:38:13] And the Wolves did what – did just smack them in the mouth. [2:38:17] And the Nuggets were like, all right, fine, we'll get you back for game seven. [2:38:20] So I'm timid on betting nuggets, but the trends also just that actually, [2:38:24] this is a weird one I found round one. [2:38:26] If you're down three, two at home, it's not a great spot for you. [2:38:31] Like it's just not been those teams. [2:38:34] If you're the home team, it's not a good spot for you. [2:38:37] That, that team that wins three actually winds up winning on the road more [2:38:41] often than not. [2:38:42] It's actually you're below 500 as a favorite in that spot. [2:38:45] So I definitely can't bet Clippers. [2:38:47] I am on the under because I do think it's going to be another tight defensive game. [2:38:50] These game sixes always turn a little bit ugly. [2:38:53] People always look at game seven being the under game. [2:38:55] But in the first round, game six actually hits under 55% of the time relative to only about 49% of the time for the game sevens. [2:39:05] If you want to know how we got here, I mean, it's the you're you're not wrong.”

LAC 111, DEN 105 — Clippers beat Nuggets 111-105 on May 1, 2025 (Game 6, ESPN); combined 216 points is over the 212 total, so the under loses.

“I'm betting overtime at plus 1,200 tomorrow on this game.”

90-109 — Miami beat Chicago 109-90 in regulation in the play-in game on 4/16/25 (ESPN box score) — no overtime was played, so the overtime prop loses.

“Lakers minus one and a half. Lakers in six or fewer at plus 125.”

Minnesota beat the Lakers 4-1 in the first round (Wikipedia/ESPN) — Los Angeles lost the series outright, so the Lakers -1.5 games spread loses.

“[2:34:33] Yeah, I like Grizz plus 3.5 first [2:34:35] half they've been really good in these first halves as of late i think they're going to come [2:34:38] out like a house of fire the problem is that they run out of steam in that second half so i don't [2:34:42] mind if you want to get in on a same game parlay and put first half uh with the grizzlies in second [2:34:47] half money line with the warriors i think that's probably like a really good play actually on the [2:34:50] spread is good as well um the grizzlies have been able to put together these really good first halves [2:34:57] they compete they've got good plans going in and then they get tired because they're playing too [2:35:01] fast and they don't have the ability to hang with these teams and i think you gotta like curry at [2:35:05] home. These teams in the seven spot have been absolutely terrific. Five and two straight up, [2:35:10] five and two ATS. There's a really good, or six and two straight up, five, two, and one ATS. [2:35:15] Do you have to go with, I think the home team here, but I will run with the Grizzlies first [2:35:18] half here as a best bet. Okay. Anything for the Magic and Hawks very quickly here? And if not,”

121-116 — Golden State led Memphis 67-55 at halftime on 4/15/25 (ESPN box score), so the Grizzlies failed to cover first-half +3.5; Warriors won the full game 121-116. (First half: Warriors 67, Grizzlies 55)

“[2:37:55] okay with the blood clot i needed him out to bet the bucks here and i have i bet the milwaukee bucks [2:38:00] plus 190 and now it's plus 165 i bet mgm still like that price i have the boxes favorites in the [2:38:05] series minus 110 so they have found something over this last stretch of games they have discovered [2:38:11] something they are have done a throwback to 2019 hey let's have Giannis be the best player one of [2:38:18] the best players on the planet and let's put four shooters including one big who can shoot around [2:38:23] him that seems like a good formula and it works four wings three wings and a big and Giannis that's [2:38:30] a formula that works the Pacers this is the key with the Pacers the Pacers are a hyper efficient [2:38:34] offense that doesn't shoot threes they don't want you shooting threes either but the Bucks are elite [2:38:39] at creating them because you have to bring help on Giannis. [2:38:42] So that gives us a math edge here. [2:38:44] The Bucs are going to shoot more three-pointers in this series [2:38:46] than the Indiana Pacers. [2:38:48] Pacers' defense has been quietly really good. [2:38:50] I'm looking at probably some underplays in this series [2:38:52] based off of the fact that I think the most underrated units [2:38:55] on these two teams are the Pacers and the Bucs. [2:38:57] But when we start looking at matchups, [2:38:59] I like how Indiana is able to put five-man combos on the floor [2:39:02] to combat the size and athleticism of the Indiana Pacers. [2:39:06] Pacers' bench hasn't been as good this year. [2:39:08] The Bucs quietly have some real contributors, guys like Ryan Rollins, guys like A.J. Green. [2:39:12] I think Gary Trent's played really well. [2:39:14] Kevin Porter Jr. should not be in the NBA, but he is, and he's played really good basketball over the last two months of the season. [2:39:19] I think this Bucs team is better. [2:39:21] They won the season series 3-1. [2:39:22] When I went back, it wasn't smoke and mirrors. [2:39:24] Their starters won the minutes. [2:39:25] That's what I care about. [2:39:27] I think the Bucs are going to win this series. [2:39:28] I like them plus 165.”

The Indiana Pacers eliminated the Milwaukee Bucks 4-1 in the 2025 NBA first-round series (Wikipedia/ESPN), so the Bucks-to-win-series futures bet loses.

“[2:39:41] Right now, New York minus $4.25 on the series price over at BetMGM. [2:39:44] Pistons plus $3.25, of course, is Detroit's first playoff appearance since 2019. [2:39:49] The Game 1 market, though, New York's 7.5-point favorites. [2:39:52] That total, $2.20.5. [2:39:53] How are you betting the series? [2:39:54] How are you betting Game 1 Saturday evening over at Madison Square Garden? [2:40:00] It's going to be fascinating. [2:40:01] I've got Pistons in that Game 1 on the spread. [2:40:03] It's too many points for the Knicks to lay.”

112-123 — New York beat Detroit 123-112 in Game 1 on 4/19/25 (ESPN box score), an 11-point margin that fails Detroit's +7.5 spread.

“But if you want to know the best bet, this is the one that we got on last night on Buckets, our butt betting podcast, and I do love this one. Dalton Kinect is about to play a lot more, and he's about to get passes from Luka Doncic. He is third in points for 36 minutes amongst all qualified rookies. He's 125 to one at bet MGM. That to me is a very valuable bet right now in a deeply horrible rookie of the year race. That to me is honestly the best bet I think you can find in relation to this trade.”

San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle won the 2024-25 Kia NBA Rookie of the Year award, receiving 92 first-place votes over runner-up Zaccharie Risacher — per NBA.com. Dalton Knecht did not win.

“I've been betting Malik Beasley because guess who's leading in points off the bench for a playoff team? Malik Beasley, 25 to one, still coming off the bench.”

Celtics guard Payton Pritchard won the 2024-25 NBA Sixth Man of the Year award with 82 of 100 first-place votes; Malik Beasley was a runner-up finalist and did not win (NBA.com).

“I think Giannis 30 plus is a good prop to go for.”

97-81 — Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 26 points (19 rebounds, 10 assists, Tournament MVP) in the Bucks' 97-81 NBA Cup championship win over the Thunder on Dec 17, 2024, falling short of the 30+ points prop (per ESPN game recap). (Giannis Antetokounmpo 26 points)

“Get Tyler Herro right now plus 300.”

Hawks guard Dyson Daniels was named the 2024-25 NBA Kia Most Improved Player; Tyler Herro did not win (per NBA.com).

“I've got Mavs on the money line at plus 176”

OKC 118, DAL 104 — Thunder beat Mavericks 118-104 in the NBA Cup quarterfinal on 12/10/2024; Dallas moneyline lost (ESPN).

“Jaren Jackson Jr., the Grizzlies are a legit, legit elite defense. And Jackson's the biggest reason why. So I think Jaron Jackson's really good value there as well. I'm going to keep betting that”

Evan Mobley (Cavaliers), not Jaren Jackson Jr., won the 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year award, announced in April 2025 (ESPN).

“OKC minus six versus Denver.”

124-122 — Nuggets beat the Thunder 124-122 on Nov 6, 2024, so OKC lost outright and failed to cover -6 (ESPN box score).

“And I really like Toronto plus 10 and a half.”

122-107 — Kings beat the Raptors 122-107 on Nov 6, 2024, a 15-point margin that exceeds the +10.5 Toronto was getting (ESPN box score).

“[9:11] My favorite one right now is going to be the Dallas Mavericks over 49.5.”

The Mavericks finished the 2024-25 NBA regular season 39-43, well under the 49.5-win over (ESPN standings). (39-43 regular season record)

“[11:42] So the Jalen Williams most improved Kenny Atkinson coach of the year, my two favorite awards positions right now.”

Dyson Daniels won the 2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player award, not Jalen Williams (NBA.com).

“[12:35] I've got some takes now, and I think the biggest two are Zachary Riesa Shea. [12:38] I think it was very undervalued when he first came out at nine to one.”

Stephon Castle won the 2024-25 NBA Rookie of the Year award, not Zaccharie Risacher (Wikipedia: NBA Rookie of the Year Award).

“[14:28] So I love the value betting wise on the Phoenix Suns to win the title.”

The Oklahoma City Thunder won the 2025 NBA Finals over the Indiana Pacers in 7 games (June 22, 2025); the Suns did not win the title (Wikipedia: 2025 NBA Finals).

“Matt, we've had a couple of guests talking NBA draft before you joined us on today's show. We had John Fanta from Fox Sports and then Jay Billis from ESPN right before you joined us. John Fanta said that he thinks Devin Carter is going in the top 10. And then Jay Bill has said Devin Carter is like his favorite player in the draft once we get past like the first couple of guys. That makes me want to bet Devin Carter draft position under 10 and a half Is that a good bet And what do you think we see with Devin Carter tonight Yeah I bet that early in the process and I still think there good value on it The Spurs are linked to him at eight.”

The Kings selected Devin Carter No. 13 overall in the 2024 NBA Draft, above the 10.5 line. (Devin Carter: No. 13)

“Water gun to your head, and maybe Nick will ask you about Mikael Bridges, or we can do that next time also, can be a quick answer. Water gun to your head, not a betting market. Like, you talk to people. You have your own opinion. Who do you actually think the number one pick is going to be? My gut says Donovan Klingin. It's just who I heard pretty consistently before Risa Shea started taking all of this steam over the weekend. And everyone, I think, talked to the same person and came out with it. I do think Landry Fields, head of basketball operations, is a fan of Risa Shea. I think that's very likely. If I had to bet it right now, I would bet Donovan Klingin. Klingin plus 450 right now and bet MGM to be the number one overall pick in the NBA draft. Matt, the New York Knicks with McHale Bridges added to the mix will be what next season?”

Donovan Clingan was selected No. 7 overall, not No. 1, in the 2024 NBA Draft. (Donovan Clingan: No. 7)

“Matt, the Mavericks, a one-and-a-half-point favorite at BetMGM on Wednesday, and obviously a must-win for Dallas. The total's 2-12-and-a-half, and Ken and I talked about game three in the last segment before you came on. Ken saying, like, he would only bet the Celtics moving forward in the series. I like the over a little bit in game three, and I think we'll get a good Kyrie performance. I do think we'll get a huge Tatum game also. Ken agrees. I don't know if it'll be Wednesday or maybe it'll be Game 4 if it gets to Game 5. How do you see Game 3 playing out, conceptualizing it? Side, total, and any prop thoughts that you have for Game 3? Yeah, I'm in agreement with you guys where the history trend says the Mavs' first half is a great play, that these teams down 0-2 are always dynamite in the first half of Game 3 at home. Trends haven't been lights out in these playoffs. It's kind of a weird playoffs, but I think there's probably a little bit of value there. If you like Dallas, that's the strongest play. For me, it's going to be Boston or nothing. I'm going to wait on the injury report from the Celtics and the imaging results from Chris Stapp's Porzingis because when he said, well, we're going to get imaging done tomorrow, he's like, I'm going to play no matter what. Well, no, you're not. If there's a structural problem, you will not be playing. And so wait for that. Even if he's listed out for game three, then I'm going to wait till that number moves and then I'm probably going to bet Boston anyway. a good example of this in the March game after the trades when Dallas had all these guys and were this new revamped team the Celtics were minus two and a half in Dallas now they're plus one and a half because the Mavericks got past the Wolves and the Thunder really I I can't get there I said before this series started I said on this show I was like I just think the number is wrong I still think the number is wrong I guessed it would be minus one and a half last night on Buckets Live because I knew that the power rating that they had adjusted to at the book at the bookmakers was going to lead us to this point. I still think it's wrong. So it's Boston or nothing for me. I do lean towards the over as well. I like the under last night because of the pace in game one, but the pace ticked up last night and the Celtics and Mavericks both shot terribly. If this is more of a loose series, and I think that both teams kind of feel like they want to get a little bit looser offensively, I think this probably goes over. I'm going to have a small play on the over and I'll wait to see if KP's in. If he's in, I will hit Celtics on the money line. If he's out, I'll probably play a little bit lighter, but I'll still probably be on Boston.”

Boston 106, Dallas 99 — Boston beat Dallas 106-99 in NBA Finals Game 3, a combined 205 points, under the 212.5 total (ESPN box score).

“So I like Brown's opportunity here. I still think that he should be the favorite by a little bit. I actually put a bet this morning on Chris Stapp's Porzingis just because there is such an awareness of how dominant he's been. Now, he's tailed off in second half dramatically, and he's got the injury. So I only wanted a 50-1. I'm not going to want it at 25-1 or anything less.”

Jaylen Brown, not Kristaps Porzingis, won the 2024 NBA Finals MVP award (ESPN). (2024 NBA Finals MVP: Jaylen Brown)

“Because of that, are you doing anything in the finals MVP market? Just because of, you know, who wins could determine like what team that you like. Have you bet into anything in that finals MVP? Yeah, I've got some positions already. I took Jaylen Brown before the playoffs began. I love that Jaylen Brown ticket. I've got a Derrick White ticket as well, just based off of the idea of like, there's a chance that White really is the most impactful player. have taken now at this point, I'm betting Tatum because I've got those positions. But also I think it's really, it makes a lot of sense. Now we'll get to the Western Conference and I want to save that. But I will say that based off of my expected matchup, I think Tatum is going to have a pretty good series. Based off of who he's going to be facing, how that kind of works out, the pick and roll coverage that he'll face in that, he'll be a lot more, I think, honestly comfortable in some of those scenarios. And so he'll have a lot of, and he'll also have a lot of shooting volume. And this so often, like Ken does such a great job on this. show after show year after year is like, Hey, like it's usually the best player. Like it's just like usually the best player. And, and so the best player right now is a plus price in the market. So I'm getting in on that as much as possible, but I do think that there's a very, there's a distinct possibility that the player that we think is the best player, which is Tatum. I think Jaylen Brown's been the best player for Boston this season. So if I think that I kind of have to bet Jalen at the numbers that he's at for finals MVP plus 850 plus 550 in the market, depending on where you're at, there's value, I think, to be found there from that perspective based off of what I'm expecting in the conference finals.”

Jaylen Brown, not Derrick White, won the 2024 NBA Finals MVP award (NBA.com).

“Because of that, are you doing anything in the finals MVP market? Just because of, you know, who wins could determine like what team that you like. Have you bet into anything in that finals MVP? Yeah, I've got some positions already. I took Jaylen Brown before the playoffs began. I love that Jaylen Brown ticket. I've got a Derrick White ticket as well, just based off of the idea of like, there's a chance that White really is the most impactful player. have taken now at this point, I'm betting Tatum because I've got those positions. But also I think it's really, it makes a lot of sense. Now we'll get to the Western Conference and I want to save that. But I will say that based off of my expected matchup, I think Tatum is going to have a pretty good series. Based off of who he's going to be facing, how that kind of works out, the pick and roll coverage that he'll face in that, he'll be a lot more, I think, honestly comfortable in some of those scenarios. And so he'll have a lot of, and he'll also have a lot of shooting volume. And this so often, like Ken does such a great job on this. show after show year after year is like, Hey, like it's usually the best player. Like it's just like usually the best player. And, and so the best player right now is a plus price in the market. So I'm getting in on that as much as possible, but I do think that there's a very, there's a distinct possibility that the player that we think is the best player, which is Tatum. I think Jaylen Brown's been the best player for Boston this season. So if I think that I kind of have to bet Jalen at the numbers that he's at for finals MVP plus 850 plus 550 in the market, depending on where you're at, there's value, I think, to be found there from that perspective based off of what I'm expecting in the conference finals.”

Jaylen Brown, not Jayson Tatum, won the 2024 NBA Finals MVP award (NBA.com).

“I'm taking the under 203.5 in Sixers-Knicks.”

76ers 112, Knicks 106 — 76ers beat Knicks 112-106; combined 218 points went over 203.5 (ESPN box score).

“I think Dallas probably rides the momentum and wins big game three. I'm going to come back in on Clippers game four. What I actually really like the best in this series is Clippers win 4-3 at your sponsor is plus 375. I like that quite a bit. Home teams win game seven. I know it's Luka. Home teams win game seven. These teams are evenly matched. I think we're probably headed to seven games. I like that bet quite a bit right now All right so Clippers in seven at BetMGM at a good price What are we supposed to do Matt with Bucs Bucks Pacers this is another series that resume in a couple days so a little bit of time if you have a strong betting opinion the the Bucks win game one and Lillard plays great”

Dallas beat the Clippers 4-2 in the 2024 first-round series, so the Clippers-to-win-4-3 futures bet lost. (Mavericks won series 4-2)

“minute. So we save time for everything else, please. Yeah. I'm on both the series dogs in the, in these games. I'm on Sixers minus four and a half and Lakers on the money line. I have a slight minus number. One, the Lakers are going to get an obscene whistle in this game. They're just going to get an obscene whistle. And eventually like I have no choice here. They keep going up by double digits. I can't stop betting a team that keeps going up by double digits versus the other team, even if they keep losing, I guess I could stop, but I won't stop. So I'm going to go ahead. I'm going to go in ahead and embrace the pain and bet the Lakers again. The Sixers outplayed the Knicks in the first two games. Sorry, Nick, but they did. They outplayed the Knicks in the first two games. I'm up 2-0. I don't care. They got Miles McBride in game one and whatever happened at the end of that game in game two. And I just keep thinking if this was a 2-3 matchup in the second round and this was games three and four in New York, would you expect them to win both of those? Yes. How would you feel if they won both of those in the way that they did them? Bad for the Knicks. So I still like Sixers in the series, but I'm terrified because I do think they won two coin flip games. I'm going to be on, I'm going to take this game by game, Sixers minus four and a half in game three, and I'm on the Lakers for some reason in game three as well. Matt, the two totals”

DEN 112, LAL 105 — Denver beat the Lakers 112-105 in Game 3 on April 25, 2024, so the Lakers moneyline lost.

“I will back Jalen Brunson at 16 to 1”

The Boston Celtics swept the Indiana Pacers 4-0 to win the 2024 Eastern Conference; the New York Knicks were eliminated in the second round and did not win the conference (ESPN). (2024 Eastern Conference champion: Boston Celtics (defeated Indiana Pacers 4-0))

“I've got under 213 in Knicks and Warriors.”

New York 119, Golden State 112 — Knicks beat Warriors 119-112; combined 231 points busts the under 213 (ESPN box score).

“I started putting in bets a couple weeks ago and giving out, hey, you should really be betting the Warriors to make the playoffs”

Kings 118, Warriors 94 — Sacramento eliminated Golden State 118-94 in the West Play-In Tournament on April 16, 2024, so the Warriors did not make the 2024 NBA playoffs (ESPN).

“I got this at 20 and I was like this is preposterous”

Thunder coach Mark Daigneault won the 2023-24 NBA Coach of the Year award with 89 of 100 first-place votes; Joe Mazzulla did not win (ESPN). (Mark Daigneault: 89 of 100 first-place votes)

“My bet, though, is I will go head-to-head with you and I will take the defending champion, Denver Nuggets, and the guy that no one in a tank top and shorts can stop in Nikola Jokic at plus 450.”

NBA.com records Boston as the 2024 champion, so the Nuggets title future lost as stored.

“Mine's a little bit longer. There's a 50-1 in the market. At BetMGM, the number is 40-1. Give me the Los Angeles Lakers.”

NBA.com records Boston as the 2024 champion, so the Lakers title future lost as stored.

“I put a bet on the New York Knicks to win the title.”

The Boston Celtics defeated the Dallas Mavericks in five games to win the 2024 NBA Finals and the franchise's 18th championship; the New York Knicks did not win the title (ESPN). (2023-24 NBA champion: Boston Celtics)

“Shea Gilders-Alexander is the first one I bet there.”

Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets was named the 2023-24 NBA Most Valuable Player over finalists Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (ESPN); Gilgeous-Alexander did not win. (2023-24 NBA MVP: Nikola Jokic)

“I do love Delle Donne though, plus 600, six to one Yeah. For a beast that's gonna put up big numbers. She's still dominant. To me, that's the best value on the board. To be clear, like, again, I did put I did put money on Delle Donne.”

2023 WNBA MVP was Breanna Stewart of the New York Liberty, not Elena Delle Donne.

“I like the Golden State Warriors minus one and a half plus 140.”

The Lakers won the series 4-2, so Warriors -1.5 games lost as stored (NBA).

“[8:04] I don't trust Tibbs. [8:05] Bickerstaff may not be as good of a coach. [8:08] Cavs fans have a lot of questions. [8:09] I think JB's going to do just fine. [8:11] My best bet for this series is absolutely Cavaliers minus 1.5. [8:15] You can get that fan to a plus number. [8:17] For them to win in six or fewer is plus 104.”

Official Masters results confirm that Cavaliers -1.5 (series spread, win in 6 or fewer) settled lost as recorded.

“[20:12] When I did the work on it, I think there's value on the Warriors to win this series convincingly. [20:19] I don't think that there's value on the Warriors to win the series at the number that they're at. [20:25] I think there's value on the Warriors to win the series convincingly. [20:28] So that's one of the best. [20:30] I'm taking the minus one and a half at the minus one 50. [20:33] I'm playing an alternate minus two and a half on the alternate spread score. [20:38] That number is actually plus one 98.”

Official Masters results confirm that Warriors -2.5 (alternate series spread) settled lost as recorded.

“[31:37] Whoever wins the East one eighth seed playing game between the Heat and the Bulls, I'll bet [31:45] Bucs sweep. I'm going to have to lay juice on it and I'm fine on that. They can't give me, [31:49] they probably won't give me a deep number on it, but I'm going to lay it because I don't think [31:54] either of these teams are even in the stratosphere of Milwaukee. Don't love Milwaukee long-term right [32:00] now. I'm very much in on the Celtics right now, but I do think Milwaukee, Milwaukee, I think, [32:05] is the team that's going to sweep. I have more confidence in them than Boston. Okay, we've got [32:08] one conference or title picks. We're talking about futures now. What's your best bet for a conference”

Official Masters results confirm that Bucks to sweep the series settled lost as recorded.

“[34:45] I think there's actually this idea that being very close, the more I've kind of looked at it, I really do think the Celtics are a significant step ahead. [34:52] The numbers bear that out that the Celtics are just better than everybody else So I willing to go ahead and right now I getting my money in free flop with the best hand I betting on aces here I betting Suns Celtics I betting Celtics to beat the Suns at [35:05] plus 1400 because if I'm right and we get there, the Suns are going to be the ones that are dogs. [35:09] So I come back on the other side. Phoenix loses game one. I'll bet back on Phoenix at that point [35:15] to hedge profit. I'm a profile better. You'll find it out if you listen to buckets. So I got a lot of [35:20] options here. But right now, if you're looking to bet one thing and you're looking for a juicy [35:24] number that 1400 is a good one uh before we get out of here one finals or conference mvp pick”

Official Masters results confirm that Celtics to beat Suns in the NBA Finals settled lost as recorded.

“my best bet is uh devin booker finals mvp plus uh 1900 then”

Official Masters results confirm that Devin Booker Finals MVP settled lost as recorded.

“Milwaukee Bucks plus 440 is a ridiculous price. That the best price on the board right now for the title”

The top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks were upset by the eighth-seeded Miami Heat in five games in the first round of the 2023 NBA playoffs, and did not win the title; the Denver Nuggets won the 2023 championship (Wikipedia 2023 NBA playoffs).

“[58:19] category. They are aligned in their, in their incentives. They, [58:23] they traded away yock like it the under 20 and a half minus 110 is a very good bet i don't want [58:29] to go into jazz let's save that for another time because you have you have the under 39 and a half”

Official NBA results confirm that Spurs under 20.5 wins settled lost as recorded.

“calves to win the win the eastern conference title at plus 1100 i put that in the app”

Official NBA results confirm that Cavaliers to win the Eastern Conference settled lost as recorded.

“[17:16] And so far right now, we have two years of playoff evidence where one of them, they won the title. [17:21] And the other one they sure have to believe that they should have or been in the mix to at least make the finals when they took Boston to seven games whether that flawed logic or not is its own story but you know they believe the players believe that [17:35] So I just, I don't see the motivation factor here to push.”

Official NBA results confirm that Magic to make the play-in settled lost as recorded.

“[13:43] they have one representative and a coach uh and their fans are not thrilled with that outcome uh [13:49] julius does take a lot and he does make a lot because he takes so many um and everyone's like [13:54] why why would they choose julia or julius randall and i was like because he's already in [13:58] he's gonna be there like he was willing to do it and that's that's where this comes from um okay so [14:04] for this one i get first pick and i've done the numbers and i've crunched all the figures and i'm [14:10] I'm going to go ahead and I'm going to take Buddy Heald, the favorite at currently at Fandle. [14:16] I'm going to take plus 420 on Buddy Heald because when there's a couple of figures that really stood out to me here for why Heald should be the favorite.”

Official NBA results confirm that Buddy Hield to win Three-Point Contest settled lost as recorded.

“[39:15] like he might play 35 minutes and just absolutely tear it up. [39:19] So I get in Kyrie at 10 to one. [39:23] It's not Donovan at 14 to one, but I actually think that the number is still like I think both of those numbers are mispriced. [39:30] So I'll take Kyrie Irving at 10 to one. [39:32] We get one wildcard pick from any of the other categories. [39:36] We start with me and I am going to take from the three point contest. [39:42] I'm going to take Lauri Markkanen at plus six fifty.”

Official NBA results confirm that Lauri Markkanen to win Three-Point Contest settled lost as recorded.

“I'm going to take Kyrie Irving, 10 to 1.”

Official NBA results confirm that Kyrie Irving All-Star Game MVP settled lost as recorded.

“[17:13] I do think that a lot of these guys [17:14] are a little bit fluid. [17:15] I could see somebody talking them into one of the other [17:19] kind of like moves [17:21] but I do think that [17:22] Usman Jang [17:23] has an again when we hear that one team wants him I think that generates a re in other teams looking at him and they wind up going a little bit higher So I like Uzman Jing top 10 plus 225”

Official draft results confirm the recorded settlement.

“[20:21] I'm running out of slots here. [20:22] Yeah. [20:23] But I do think that there's a little bit of value on AJ Griffin, [20:25] especially I think at 11 and a half, [20:27] I'll say this. [20:28] I think 11 is a stopping point. [20:30] I think it's very, I've bet Knicks to take him at plus 500.”

Official draft results confirm the recorded settlement.

“That's fallen off, I think, a little bit, understandably. Some concerns about the knee injury in high school, but I haven't heard anything that's been like a real big red, you know, medical red flag on him. And the only thing I've heard from people whenever I've asked about him is absolutely incredible shooter, just an absolutely incredible shooter. That guy's going to get buckets in the NBA. Over under was a ten and a half and moved to a level 11 and a half.”

Official draft results confirm the recorded settlement.

“[25:06] to the G league ignite plan. Like they're trying to develop these guys. So maybe they're encouraging [25:10] to, you know, do your thing, Jaden, but he shot, I think 35% from the field for the year, not from [25:16] three from the field. So to me, Jaden Hardy, I think is a theoretical basketball player right now. [25:22] And that doesn't stop you from getting drafted. We draft a lot of theoretical basketball players. But to me, Jane Hardy is the reason Shane Sharp didn't play this year. He's the outcome of, hey, tantalizing youth and upside. Oh, that really didn't work out great right now. So I think Harden is slipping a lot. Hardy is going to slip a lot. I wouldn't be stunned if he fell out of the first round entirely at 23 and a half. He can still kind of be a, you know, one of those late good teams, take a flyer on him. [25:51] I like the over and it's just a guy that I feel like I need to fade right now. [25:55] Yeah, mine is a longer shot. I've got Trevor Keels first round at plus 425. This is a longer shot. [26:02] This is based purely on Intel. I've heard I know three teams in the final 10 of the draft that are high on Keels.”

Official draft results confirm the recorded settlement.

“So I bet Celtics minus one and a half on the series spread line.”

Official NBA Finals results confirm the recorded settlement.

“I'm like but one of the reasons I bet the six is I got plus 200 on it and I can bet I can hedge it with a game seven which is probably what I'll do now we'll say like I I took a little Warriors in seven bets last night because the number is so high which is already kind of a prior hedge you get it at three to one yeah and so 350 actually and so i found a 350 out there um so i took that”

Official NBA Finals results confirm the recorded settlement.

“I think Jaylen Brown is becoming more compelling. I haven't placed a bet on it yet, but I think he's probably the one that would compete with Jason Tatum the most on the Celtics side right now. I think Al Horford is pretty much leaning towards dead. I'm so sad. He had such a good first quarter. It was a nice run. We're back in it, baby. And then he gave up that seven-point possession, and that was not good. And they just decided to start guarding his threes. Stop guarding his threes, Warriors. I have a Tatum from way back. I grabbed him plus 175. I have a longer odds on him at one of the books. I have to have it on a sheet here. That longer number. I did take Jaylen Brown at plus 650.”

Official NBA Finals results confirm the recorded settlement.

“Stephen Curry, 10 and a half over assistant rebounds [29:27] was a really painful one. He had 10 over 10 and a half. He had 10. I got hit by the hook and he [29:33] sits the entire fourth quarter. I'm back on that for game three.”

Curry had 4 rebounds and 2 assists (6 total) in Game 3 of the 2022 NBA Finals on June 8, 2022, under the 10.5 assists+rebounds line (ESPN box score). (Curry 4 reb, 2 ast (6 total))

“But ultimately where I came down to is I've got Celtics minus one and a half on the windspread at plus 200.”

Official NBA Finals results confirm the recorded settlement.

“Like, Kurt and on top of this my my thought process on finals MVP because I was just on with Ken and Kim was talking about how you know it always just been the best player on the winning team Yeah Well one I got Celtics But two it always been the engine Like Giannis has the ball in his hands all the time. And LeBron has the ball in his hands all the time. And Kawhi Leonard and, you know, Dirk Nowitzki. And like all these guys have always been like the hub of the offense. Curry's not the hub. Draymond's the hub. The system is the hub. curry is the tip of the spear and curry can obviously if curry just like is catching and firing and hitting versus great contest if he just has an all-time one of those series right then for sure steph curry can win at a minus number we have never seen that in the nba finals from him his series have always been like good stuff curry sucks in the nba finals it's that It's always been like, no, yeah, Curry was good, but not like, you know, who's great. That answer has always been somebody else. Right. And so that's why I get to I can't find value on Curry, which is why I'm on Klay Thompson, Jason Tatum with a sprinkle on Al Horford and an absurd number. Those to me are like the best values for finals MVP.”

Official NBA Finals results confirm the recorded settlement.

“I think this is a very close series. But for me, the value, when I'm getting a plus number on a team that's been as good as Boston, that has found the answers. I think Boston is where the value is found. I'm betting it very specifically as a series goes on. Look, I have a plus 700 Warriors over Celtics ticket from early May. I have a plus 900 Celtics over Warriors ticket from the second round So I set myself up on either side But when I look at how the matchups go I lean towards Boston just slightly having the edge over Golden State enough to think the value is there in what I think is close to a coin flip series.”

The Celtics lost the 2022 NBA Finals to the Warriors 2-4 (Wikipedia series results).

“I already bet Celtics minus one and a half at plus 200. [48:56] So I'm set for Celtics and six, essentially at plus 200 from that position.”

The Celtics lost the 2022 NBA Finals series outright 2-4, so Celtics -1.5 (needing to win the series by 2+ games) lost (Wikipedia series results).

“I think Al Horford's going to be awesome to the point where we can talk about it later, but I bet him for finals MVP.”

Stephen Curry, not Al Horford, won 2022 NBA Finals MVP (Wikipedia/NBA Finals results).

“My best bet for a futures play if you're looking [18:46] for the Eastern Conference is actually Sixers plus 600.”

76ers lost in the second round of the 2022 playoffs; the Boston Celtics won the Eastern Conference, beating Miami 4-3.

“I put them around like six or 7% to win the title. That means we're getting like three times the value here. So if you're still talking about 7%, you want to tie up money on a 7% chance, even if you're getting EV. I do. I mean, I do. That's how I go. Yes, that's how I play futures and long shots. I just want the value. Who do you like? All right. I will go with the Milwaukee Bucks at plus 650. There's still a lot of confidence internally amongst the Bucks that they're going to get Brooke Lopez back sometime in the month of March. If they get Brooke Lopez back, this team is still very well positioned to win the title. They have signature wins versus the Nets. They have signature wins versus the Sixers, even after the loss before the All-Star break. They match up well with basically every team. I think Miami is a tough one. I almost put Miami here. Like I was very close to putting Miami as, as the one, but I can't really get there. So I'm going to go ahead and I'm going to go with the Milwaukee box. I believe in their combination. I've said this sporadically throughout the year, but since this is the time when people”

NBA official 2021-22 season review confirms the stored outcome.

“who I thought was going to win it, who is? Because I don't believe in Rudy or in Giannis. And I just am looking for an alternative. And Robert Williams is the alternative that has finally kind of come through for me here. So I have a pick. And then I want to talk about something else, another option real quick on awards. I'm going to follow the same kind of thinking that you have, which I think DPOY has the best value here. But I'm going to not go with Robert Williams. I am going to go, however, with a similarly priced player at FanDuel, which is Mikael Bridges at plus 1600. So here I think is the difference. One, Williams has had injury issues. He's been in and out of the lineup all season long. That's a problem. Second, he only really kind of came onto the scene last year. Like he played like that back half of last year. You've got to give the voters time to get to know a player. And Time Lord has not gotten a player that's been in the rotation long enough. Mikael Bridges has a reputation for like the last three years of, you know, he's really good. kill bridges. And then last year, you know, it was really good. Mikhail bridges. And now you have a situation where if you look at the best defensive teams in the league based off of adjusted defensive rating over at dunks and threes the best teams are the warriors at number one Draymond would have won He not going to win I pissed That should have been like I still think there a chance that Draymond just gets the vote that they just like you know what Screw it Like it Draymond I think he might too. Boston is second. You're absolutely right there. But again, we talked about how they don't know him. Cleveland's third. I will just say this. Evan Mobley should probably win the damn thing. Yeah. Like he's not going to because he's a rookie. Evan Mobley legitimately should probably win the thing. And that's crazy for a rookie. That's how good he is and if you want proof of that based off of estimated plus minus defensively per dunks and threes.com evan mobley is fourth as a rookie it's insane brandon like the calves with his third best defense and it's mostly because of evan mobley who's a rookie it's wild he's gonna win it next year i have i'm almost positive he's gonna win it next year um the suns though are fourth bridges has a marquee game where he shut down steph curry the sun's defense has been great all year. Bridges will get the most credit for that beyond everybody else. They will want to award the sons with something and it may be coach of the year, but Bickerstaff, I think has a really good chance there. MVP, Chris Paul is not going to get it, especially with the injury. So I think bridges at 16 to one actually has pretty good value. I like Mikhail bridges in that spot. Yeah, no, I think it's a very strong play. I worry a little bit that it feels like the sons”

NBA official 2021-22 season review confirms the stored outcome.

• Evan Mobley ROY lost
• Ja Morant MIP won
• Tyler Herro 6MOY won
• Joel Embiid MVP lost
• Nikola Jokic MVP won
• Giannis Antetokounmpo MVP lost

“there's a couple of that you can do this at. You can actually parlay Mobley to win rookie of the year jaw to win most improved and Tyler hero at minus 11. 50 to win six man. That gets you to minus 163 at FanDuel. And what you can do then is you can then take Embiid, Jokic, Giannis, and you can actually round robin it. And you're going to come away with a pretty good price. If you do Embiid with those three, it's plus 295. If you do Jokic, it jumps to 497. And if you do Giannis, it jumps to 691. So if we consider those three to be locks, which I do. And if you think that the MVP is going to come from one of Giannis, Embiid, and Jokic, I know Brandon still thinks Steph's got a shot at this. But you take those three, and you can parlay it and do a round robin. I actually think that's a pretty good value bet based off of getting four to one return on these. I do not see any way that Evan Mobley does not win rookie of the year. I don't see any way Jha doesn't win most improved. And I don't see any way that Tyler Hero doesn't win sixth man of the year. I 100% agree with you. I actually already bet this in several different ways. This was going to be my best bet. And I was like, nah, that's boring. Just betting the favorites, but you don't even have to put this on MVP. You can put those guys and parlay it with whatever, pick somebody to win their premier league, pick a title, you know, pick NFL futures. You basically, if you agree, and I do agree that these three guys are locks, that there is very little chance that they're not going to win this award. You basically could use this as like a 40% profit boost on whatever other bet that you want to make. So I even I've bet this just with like a nightly spread. And I want the spread now I have to wait out and make sure that these guys hit. So I agree. I think it's a great way to play it. All right. And final one, you got one more extreme extemporaneous any sort of etc. bet.”

NBA official 2021-22 season review confirms the stored outcome.

“I think Giannis at plus three 90.”

Nikola Jokic, not Giannis Antetokounmpo, won the 2021-22 NBA MVP award, so the Giannis (+390) futures bet lost.

“I'm taking three guys. I'm going to go ahead and I'm going to bet Fred VanVleet. I'm going to bet Zach LaVine and I'm going to bet Luke Kennard.”

NBA official 2022 All-Star results confirm the stored outcome.

“The bigger question is, does winning the title fundamentally shift who they are? Because a lot of times the team wins a title and that the confidence and what they learn from that process opens up new stuff. Like I had the bucks on my top five props for now. I've already bet the five that are on my list. I bet Nuggets.”

Denver did not win the 2022 NBA championship (ESPN).

“The bigger question is, does winning the title fundamentally shift who they are? Because a lot of times the team wins a title and that the confidence and what they learn from that process opens up new stuff. Like I had the bucks on my top five props for now. I've already bet the five that are on my list. I bet Nuggets. I bet Warriors. I bet Mavericks.”

Dallas did not win the 2022 NBA championship (ESPN).

“The bigger question is, does winning the title fundamentally shift who they are? Because a lot of times the team wins a title and that the confidence and what they learn from that process opens up new stuff. Like I had the bucks on my top five props for now. I've already bet the five that are on my list. I bet Nuggets. I bet Warriors. I bet Mavericks. I bet. I bet bucks a plus 850. I think there's value there. Not a lot. I think there's value there as well.”

Milwaukee did not win the 2022 NBA championship (ESPN).

“Springer was one I identified almost immediately because the guy that I trust most on this stuff has him 5th on his board too. And so, I bet Springer out the gate at 23 and a half minus 110. When the props first hit, I hit that every book I could find it at um so i i've i have built on springer i have more on him their draft twitter can be it's messy because there are guys in there that are in quote unquote”

Jaden Springer was selected after the listed 2021 NBA Draft threshold (NBA draft board). (Jaden Springer selected No. 28)

“His prop's still 22 and a half. The under is juiced at plus 110 on BetMGM, the official odds provider of the Action Network. For me, like, I just think Jaden Springer, 22 and a half, still has to be a best bet.”

Jaden Springer was selected after the listed 2021 NBA Draft threshold (NBA draft board). (Jaden Springer selected No. 28)

“Davion Mitchell is his over under is 12 and a half uh the 12 and a half is plus 100 i'm gonna bet the over it at plus 100”

Davion Mitchell was selected before the listed 2021 NBA Draft threshold (NBA draft board). (Davion Mitchell selected No. 9)

“all of this this said i'll tell you where i'm where i'm gonna bet i'm taking sons plus the four and a half tomorrow because i'm expecting a tight game i just like honestly i I think four and a half is too many points, even with free throws. I think we're going to, I think we're due for an absolutely ugly, rotten, Suns can't score at home. Bucks can't shoot because of Bucks. Grind it out. Exhausting. Tough calls. Can't get a whistle. Ugly ass game. I like the Suns and the under tomorrow just because I would have liked, you know, I think that tomorrow's like, honestly, my biggest concern with the under is is overtime that's my big concern tomorrow is that it's going to go under and then overtime is going to hit brandon like that's that's where i'm at right now is i don't want to bet this this is a rare instance where i don't think there's value on betting the suns to win but i do think that i want to bet against the spread because i think we're looking at a close game so all of that makes sense in theory to me but let me let me push back a”

109-103 — The Milwaukee Bucks beat the Phoenix Suns 109-103 in NBA Finals Game 4, so Phoenix did not cover +4.5.

“but I'm going the other way from you guys I'm playing the Suns to sweep and here's why because I think tonight is going to be a tough game. I think tonight is something close to a coin flip. That's about where the books are pricing it. I think that's about right. We know how good teams are when they're down 0-2. They're playing at home. I agree with the first quarter, the first half thing on the Clippers. It's going to be a hard game to pull. But look at the Clippers. If the Suns can win tonight, and if they're 50-50, then the Suns can win tonight. Now you're the Clippers. You're down 0-3. Chris Paul just came back. Kawhi Leonard ain't walking through that door. The rest of your guys are getting banged up. You're down 0-3. You just come off of back-to-back seven-game series. Like, if the Suns win tonight, it's done. And the Clippers aren't coming back and putting up a big fight. And we've seen how good the Suns are in closeout games so far this postseason, too. So, Suns to sweep at BetMGM right now is plus 260. And I think to me, that's giving me something akin to a plus 260 money line for Phoenix to win tonight.”

The NBA's 2020-21 season review records Phoenix defeating the LA Clippers 4-2 in the Western Conference finals, not by a sweep.

“So, series line, Jazz plus 150, Clippers minus 185. Okay, so I've been the Jazz guy on this podcast. On the last podcast or two, I jumped out on the Jazz. I'm jumping back in series only. I think that this is great value on the Jazz. I put this series at about a coin flip right now because I think that the Clippers without Kawhi Leonard are, I mean, we saw the Clippers play many times this year with just Kawhi or just Paul George and their other guys. We know that that worked. You know, they held up their record just fine. We know that that's not like a terrible team. Paul George, if you plays like you did tonight, we know that that team can”

NBA's 2020-21 season review records the LA Clippers defeating Utah 4-2 in the conference semifinals.

“defending champions i bet the denver nuggets to beat the phoenix suns at plus 180 i saw that”

PHX 122, DEN 105 — NBA results show Phoenix beat Denver 122-105 in Game 1, so the Nuggets moneyline lost.

“I'm betting Utah in the next series.”

NBA's 2020-21 season review records the LA Clippers defeating Utah 4-2 in the conference semifinals.

• Blazers -4 closed -3.5 · CLV -0.5
• Blazers ML closed -164 · CLV -11¢

“I am on the Blazers minus four and on the money line in a parlay”

DEN 120, POR 115 — NBA results show Denver beat Portland 120-115 in Game 3, so both Portland -4 and the Portland moneyline lost.

“I took the Blazers at minus 105 early. I grabbed them. My two angles for this series are pretty simple Firepower So the Blazers have Damian Lillard yes but also C McCollum who is huge in the 2019 series and Norman Powell who can create off ball”

NBA's 2020-21 season review records Denver defeating Portland 4-2 in the first round.

“I'm already locked in on Lakers we talked about this on our Twitter spaces that we did on Monday make sure to follow Action Network HQ on Twitter to follow find that I'm already locked in I got Lakers minus four and a half So I grabbed that line. I got Lakers minus four and a half at plus 100, actually. And so I grabbed that.”

LAL 103, GSW 100 — NBA results show the Lakers beat Golden State 103-100 in the play-in, so the Lakers failed to cover -4.5.

“My biggest one right now, right now, you can get Pacific to beat the Atlantic. Division versus division in the finals. So that's Lakers or Clippers or Suns to beat either Sixers or Nets in the finals at plus 240. That to me is great value. The Nets are a great team. They're title favorites. I think that there's a number of ways that they can get toppled. I can see the Bucs beating the Nets and then the Sixers beating the Bucs. There's a bunch of outs to that. Meanwhile, if you just don't believe in the Jazz, if you're just like, I do not believe in Utah, which is a pretty defensible position. If you're at our playoff primer on Action Network, then you're in good spot there with Pacific to beat the Atlantic at plus 240.”

Phoenix (Pacific) reached the Finals by beating the Clippers 4-2 in the WCF, but Milwaukee (Central, not Atlantic) beat the Hawks 4-2 in the ECF to represent the East; neither Atlantic-division team (Sixers, Nets) reached the Finals, so the Pacific-over-Atlantic Finals bet could not win (Wikipedia, 2021 NBA playoffs).

“For my first one, I will go ahead and grab the easy one here and take the favorite. I'm still getting plus 375 for Nets Lakers, so I will go ahead and grab the Lakers. um look I understand all the reasons for concern but how many times have we done this with”

NBA results show the 2021 Finals were Milwaukee versus Phoenix, not Nets-Lakers.

“I'm taking Bucks Lakers at plus 1000.”

NBA results show Milwaukee defeated Phoenix 4-2 in the 2021 Finals, not Milwaukee-Lakers.

“I want Sixers nuggets, but I'm not going to let myself do it. I think MB versus Jokic would be absolutely incredible. That would be such a fun finals. I'll take Sixers Clippers. I, you know, I think, look, we're, if anything, I think this podcast is underrated in the Sixers. Number one, the Eastern conference, right. Going to get and be back. They're already saying he's going to be back about a week. uh gonna have another month of him getting ready uh i i think that there's a really good chance that he winds up uh he's gonna be in the mmp conversation you got ben simmons the second defenders they do like if the bucks like run into a miami right and it's net sixers i still keep wondering as much as i like the nets is are you gonna try lamarcus aldridge defending joellen bead are you putting deandre jordan on joellen is this a thing that you're really gonna do You're really going to try those guys. Like they don't have anybody to stop and beat that guy will absolutely feast in that series. They have the shooters this year. They have better coaching. So I'll take the Sixers there. I don't want the Clippers because I need to, I need to not just have the Lakers in all, in all three. I need the Clippers in one of my positions here. So I'm taking the Sixers Clippers, um, getting really good value. I think at 20 to one, like that's awesome.”

NBA results show the 2021 Finals were Milwaukee versus Phoenix, not Sixers-Clippers.

“I'm going to lead off this week because I am going back to the well. Luka Doncic, over three and a half, three-pointers. you're still getting it plus money they finally raised the number brandon they went from two and a half to three and a half but they're still putting it at like plus 140 he's hit like five of the last six of these and seven of the last 11 i'm absolutely all in luca's shooting a ton of threes night to night love this bet i'm taking luca over three and a half plus 140 brandon what's”

NBA box-score statistics show Luka Doncic made two three-pointers against Minnesota, short of over 3.5. (Luka Doncic 2 three-pointers)

“So my pick here is Cassius Stanley under this very sophisticated logic. When there is a player that no one in the league knows who it is and they invite him to the dunk contest, there must be a reason. it's because stanley is a huge athlete i actually like him a lot he was one of my sleepers from a”

NBA records Anfernee Simons as winner of the 2021 Slam Dunk Contest, not Cassius Stanley.

“it's a Julius Randle year I am going Julius Randle to win that contest we don't have odds”

NBA records Domantas Sabonis as winner of the 2021 Skills Challenge, not Julius Randle.

“So I'm taking the Blazers first half money line plus one Oh five.”

NBA box-score scoring shows Golden State led Portland 56-55 at halftime, so Portland's first-half moneyline lost. (Golden State 56, Portland 55 at halftime)

“I said that the Wizards defense had a lot of indications it was better than it had performed. the total in nuggets wizards tonight with the nuggets shorthanded on a back-to-back is 234 yum we've got a sega baba the wizards have held their opponent to under a 106 defensive rating in three of the last four games it is starting to turn my friends the wizard's defense is going to only be a dumpster fire and not a dumpster on fire in the middle of a hazmat zone in a in a nuclear wasteland. It's going to be slightly not horrible. This number is way too high. This is built definitely on the idea that the Wizards have changed up their rotations. Brooks has basically just started shifting things. There's a little bit of Mojo going. I think they're starting to get over the loss of Thomas Bryant. They're figuring out some things. I think Denny's been playing well. I think the Nuggets, without the kind of options, I will wait to see who's playing in this game. Because if the Nuggets are all of a sudden, they're like, yeah, everybody's back because they do that sometimes. Just random guys are back suddenly. It could be an issue. But in general, it's going to have to be a lot of guys back. And even then, the number probably goes up even more. I will still probably be on the under. I'm taking the under in a Wizards game.”

WSH 130, DEN 128 — Basketball-Reference records Washington's 130-128 win over Denver, a 258-point game that went over 234.

“I'm taking calves over 105 for the night.”

DEN 133, CLE 95 — Basketball-Reference records Denver's 133-95 win over Cleveland, with the Cavaliers below 105 points.

“I'm taking Nuggets heat over 219.5 for 30 bucks.”

DEN 109, MIA 82 — Denver beat Miami 109-82, a 191-point total that stayed under 219.5.

“I'm going $10 on Pistons plus five.”

ATL 123, DET 115 — Atlanta beat Detroit 123-115, so Detroit +5 failed to cover.

“I also have the box I'm more conservative which is 30 on 10 and a half uh this has been one of my favorite bets over the last three seasons Mike Budenholzer with the Milwaukee Bucks against a division team as a double-digit favorite is 14-5 against the spread.”

MIL 110, DET 101 — Milwaukee beat Detroit 110-101, so Bucks -10.5 failed to cover.

“i am going with wolves grizzlies under second quarter 53 and a half okay you can get this at several books i'm not out there on a line yes the limits are lower but i'm only putting 15 on it”

Memphis and Minnesota combined for 57 points in the second quarter, over 53.5 rather than under.

“I'm also I'm going to stick with that same game. I like the under on that game. I think I think it's 218 right now. There's a little difference in opinion in the market. Like one book has 217. One book has 218. I personally make the game 216. For me, I just don't see how the Raptors consistently score on his son's defense. I think the sons the sons play the slowest pace in the league. The Raptors want to run. But I think, you know, with Chris Paul out there, he keeps the pace low.”

PHX 123, TOR 115 — Phoenix beat Toronto 123-115, a 238-point total that went over 218.

“I am going to chow down on the under in Washington, Philly. When you do this for real, don't ever say that. It's at 231 right now.”

PHI 141, WAS 136 — Philadelphia beat Washington 141-136, a 277-point total that went over 231.

“big chunk so I put down uh I had I had 35 on the Washington Philly under I'm going 30 on Atlanta minus six uh i am taking 15 on the celtics plus three uh just 15 bucks because i i've been screwed”

CHA 102, ATL 94 — Charlotte beat Atlanta 102-94, so Hawks -6 lost.

“I'm going top of the board and I'm grabbing the Los Angeles Lakers plus 275 at William Hill to win the NBA title.”

NBA season review records Milwaukee as 2020-21 champion, not the Lakers.

“I'm going Celtics to win the Eastern conference. I can't believe I get this number. I get the Celtics to win the East at plus 650.”

NBA season review records Milwaukee as Eastern Conference champion, not Boston.

“I'm actually gonna go ahead and I'm going to take the Nuggets minus 130 at FanDuel to win the Northwest Division.”

Basketball-Reference's 2020-21 standings show Utah, not Denver, won the Northwest Division.

“I'm going over on Cavs, 22 and a half.”

Basketball-Reference records Cleveland at 22 wins in 2020-21, below 22.5.

“My three-man position starts with a guy that is number one amongst these competitors in that category, and that is the Miami Heat's Duncan Robinson. That guy also, bucket, just bucket.”

NBA records list Buddy Hield as the three-point contest winner; the recorded outcome matches.

“And my third one is going to be Trae Young because of that extra ball rack. Like Trey, I think, might have like legit intentions to go into this all-star game and really just like try and win the weekend”

NBA records list Buddy Hield as the three-point contest winner; the recorded outcome matches.

“That's why I'm taking Khris Middleton because he's probably going to have the longest odds of a guy who's not a point guard. I'm not so worried about him passing a ball through a circle hole or dribbling through whatever obstacles there are out there, but he's as wet of a three-point shooter as anybody in this competition, and he's going to pay out on top of it. My guy's Khris Middleton here.”

The skills challenge result names Bam Adebayo as winner; the recorded outcome matches.

“Young is one of my two MVP picks for the reasons you just stated. I think he's going to try and win the weekend, and most importantly, he's going to have the ball in his hands”

NBA records name Kawhi Leonard the All-Star Game MVP; the recorded outcome matches.

“So what do you think of Houston? What is the team total for the Rockets right now? What are you going to do about it? It's over 105.5, and I'm definitely on the over. If we look at last game, they had an absolutely apocalyptic night, or just an absolutely horrific night from James Harden, one of the worst playoff games I've ever seen him play. He was 0 of 15. That totals all the way up to 109 now. It's moved up, and I'm still going to be on the over.”

91-107 — Jazz beat Rockets 107-91 in Game 4 of the first round (Apr 22, 2019); Rockets' team total of 91 is well under the over 109 line.

“The other one I really like tonight is the Jazz under at 106.”

91-107 — Jazz beat Rockets 107-91 in Game 4 of the first round (Apr 22, 2019); Jazz's team total of 107 exceeds the under 106 line.