Guest · 3-4 on settled picks
“But for me, the two guys at the top of my card, Rory McIlroy, obviously, plus 600 to win, minus one forty to be a top 10.”
Rory McIlroy won the 2025 Masters at -11 (277), beating Justin Rose in a playoff, so the outright futures bet won (ESPN leaderboard).
“And then Justin Thomas. He's 22 to one to win. For me, the the Justin Thomas thing is simple. Four top 15 and tee to green. So tee to green, strokes gained, which is basically just how well you hit the ball until you get to the green. That in the last 36 rounds, he's in the top 15. Birdie or better percentage, he's number one. Par five. So if you guys know anybody, Gustaf, par five, you the the whole rule the rule of thumb is you just let the par fours happen. Let the par threes happen. You get really aggressive on par fives. Really aggressive. Well, guess what? Justin Thomas is number one over the past 36 rounds in par five, strokes gained.”
Rory McIlroy won the 2025 Masters; Justin Thomas finished T36 at +2 (281), so the Justin Thomas outright lost (ESPN leaderboard).
“twenty second around the green. So Lowry is always gonna be my card. And then if I had to give a longer shot in this mid tier, I'm gonna go Seth Straka, who I actually heard Pat Mayo just shouted him out and is on the Straka train. Top five in Tee De Green, Bertie or Betty better top three, par five, top two. Like, Straka is the kind of guy that is if I had to guess, he might be built for this. He might he might be built for this. And, obviously, I don't think he has a ton. He was he was sixteenth in the masters last year looking at it now. Like, I would not be surprised for a Sepp Straka top five, and I'm gonna bet that. Cheng Liao re 35 to one, Strohka 60 to one.”
Rory McIlroy won the 2025 Masters; Shane Lowry finished T42 at +4 (282), so the Shane Lowry outright lost (ESPN leaderboard).
“Like, I would not be surprised for a Sepp Straka top five, and I'm gonna bet that. Cheng Liao re 35 to one, Strohka 60 to one.”
Sepp Straka missed the cut at the 2025 Masters, shooting 78-71 (149, +5), so the top-5 finish prop lost (ESPN leaderboard). (Sepp Straka missed the cut at 149 (+5))
“Kevin said Justin Thomas at 22 to one, I saw you put your head down, and I I feel like you were betting Betting it. Yep. Justin Thomas. As you well, Chad. You know me well.”
Rory McIlroy won the 2025 Masters; Justin Thomas finished T36 at +2 (281), so the Justin Thomas outright lost (ESPN leaderboard).
“Chicago, they have their number at 8.5 as the total there. More or less. It's less. I love the foundations of this team. I think Caleb Williams will be a superstar, but not in year one.”
Bears finished the 2024 regular season 5-12, under the 8.5 season win-total line, so the under selection won (ESPN standings). (CHI 2024: 5-12)
“Kevin, six and a half is the number for the Giants. Are you going more or less? I'm going under here.”
The New York Giants finished the 2024 regular season 3-14, well under the 6.5 win total (ESPN standings). (NYG 2024: 3-14)