Mike Randall

“I'll take Iowa State and the Cyclones because of their defense”

72-69 — Illinois beat Iowa State 72-69 in the Sweet 16; the Iowa State moneyline busts.

“So I will take North Carolina, but I admit it's 4.5. It's getting a little much”

89-87 — Alabama beat North Carolina 89-87 in the Sweet 16; North Carolina lost outright, so -4.5 busts.

“But here at FTM with our models, biggest edge on a side we give is actually to Marquette minus six. That's a 7% edge. I'm going to lay the points at Marquette.”

67-58 — NC State beat Marquette 67-58 in the Sweet 16; Marquette lost outright, so -6 busts.

“Got a plus 1900 future on Milwaukee, hoping they get to the window tonight.”

83-76 — Oakland beat Milwaukee 83-76 to win the 2024 Barbasol Horizon League championship on 3/12/24; Milwaukee did not win the tournament (source: Oakland University Athletics).

“our value on a long shot, and guys, listen, you can pick other teams, but a long shot value for us is Iowa. Iowa came in well below. They're at plus 4,000 at some books. We have them with actually about a 5% chance of winning this tournament. I think that's a team you can look at here.”

93-87 — Illinois beat Wisconsin 93-87 to win the 2024 Big Ten men's basketball tournament on 3/17/24; Iowa did not win the tournament (source: Big Ten Conference).

“And I have some investment on both Pittsburgh and Clemson as kind of long shots here to maybe win the ACC while everyone thinks North Carolina Duke.”

84-76 — NC State beat North Carolina 84-76 to win the 2024 ACC men's basketball tournament on 3/16/24; Pittsburgh did not win the tournament (source: ESPN box score).

“on the other side of the bracket, another team I really like is Clemson. Clemson is P.J.”

84-76 — NC State beat North Carolina 84-76 to win the 2024 ACC men's basketball tournament on 3/16/24; Clemson did not win the tournament (source: ESPN box score).

“if you're going to give me Baylor, who's lurking around plus 700 plus 750, they just have to beat Iowa state. And of course, guys, you can hedge when you get to the finals and lock in some profit. I don't see anyone beating Houston. They're a juggernaut. So to me, the values in the other side of the bracket and with Kansas being shorthanded, Baylor young, getting better, great coach in Scott Drew. That's the value for me”

69-41 — Iowa State beat Houston 69-41 to win the 2024 Big 12 men's basketball tournament on 3/16/24; Baylor did not win the tournament (source: Big 12 Conference).

“That's why I like looking at a team like BYU. I think they can beat Texas Tech. And then it's a matchup with Houston, who, by the way, no Jesse Tuggler, no Arsenault. They're getting a little weak in terms of their bench. If they have a game that they're struggling and you know their defense inside the arc is like the Hulk smash. But if BYU can make some threes and Houston isn't great on offense, given that they're shorthanded, that is a matchup that I think you can get behind, especially at the number for BYU, which is well over, what, plus 1,200, I think, right now.”

69-41 — Iowa State beat Houston 69-41 to win the 2024 Big 12 men's basketball tournament on 3/16/24; BYU did not win the tournament (source: Big 12 Conference).

“we told people to take a look at Seton Hall, who right now is at a crazy number like plus 4,000.”

73-57 — UConn beat Marquette 73-57 to win the 2024 Big East men's basketball tournament on 3/16/24; Seton Hall did not win the tournament (source: ESPN box score).

“if you're looking for some value, you want an opening day team, I would go with USC, who has the height and finally has the health and has great value.”

75-68 — Oregon beat Colorado 75-68 to win the 2024 Pac-12 men's basketball tournament on 3/16/24; USC did not win the tournament (source: Pac-12 Conference).

“No one's hotter than Colorado right now. And if you look at the percentages, they're at plus 500. We ran our simulations. We have Colorado with a 19% chance of winning this tournament”

75-68 — Colorado reached the 2024 Pac-12 tournament final but lost to Oregon 75-68 on 3/16/24; Colorado did not win the tournament (source: Pac-12 Conference).

“I'm going against that pick. There is no Joshua Jefferson for St. Mary's. And he made a huge difference in that matchup at Gonzaga when St. Mary's won 64-62. Also was a game, guys, where Gonzaga could not make a three-pointer, shot extremely poorly from beyond the arc, 3 of 14. That's 21%. But if you look at Gonzaga in conference, they're shooting 39% from three-point range. They were 50% last night. I don't like this matchup at all. I could get there if Jefferson was playing and they were totally healthy. But two teams to me going in a bit of a different direction. I'll take the Zags and the Bulldogs and Mark Few, who are hot right now”

69-60 — Saint Mary's beat Gonzaga 69-60 in the 2024 WCC tournament championship on 3/12/24; the Gonzaga moneyline lost (source: ESPN box score).

“I want to preface this by saying that my favorite national championship future is Tennessee. I think Rick Barnes has done an incredible job. Five straight tournament, sweet 16 last year. So I love Tennessee for the national championship.”

75-60 — UConn beat Purdue 75-60 to win the 2024 NCAA men's basketball national championship on 4/8/24; Tennessee did not win the title (source: ESPN box score).

“The first one here is Texas A&M, who we give a 4% chance at plus 2,300. You can actually get them at plus 5,000. Guys, we've seen this before. Wade Taylor can have a Kemba Walker-like tournament and take this team far in the SEC. So that's a value.”

86-67 — Auburn beat Florida 86-67 to win the 2024 SEC men's basketball tournament on 3/17/24; Texas A&M did not win the tournament (source: ESPN box score).

“The second one we want to look at is Florida. If you look at the bracket, Florida would play Alabama, which is a good matchup for Florida. Alabama's not great on defense. Florida then plays Kentucky. They've already beaten Kentucky and gone to overtime with them. No problem there. That is a team that we like to back.”

86-67 — Auburn beat Florida 86-67 to win the 2024 SEC men's basketball tournament on 3/17/24; Florida finished as runner-up (source: ESPN box score).

“I'm going with Bamalei in the six and a half against UCLA. Alabama just is too talented right now.”

UCLA 88, ALA 78 — NCAA Tournament results show UCLA beat Alabama 88-78 in overtime, so Alabama failed to cover -6.5.

“Favorite pick is easy I taking Georgetown on the points Georgetown I think they the better team I think they hotter I don trust Colorado Baddies looked injured to me I been batting inside Hoyas are playing real well [1:07:35] Good balance inside and out. [1:07:37] I'm going to take the Hoyas in the five and a half points. [1:07:39] I think they win the game outright.”

COL 96, GT 73 — NCAA Tournament results show Colorado beat Georgetown 96-73, so Georgetown failed to cover +5.5.

“Tar Heels minus one and a half.”

WIS 85, UNC 62 — NCAA Tournament results show Wisconsin beat North Carolina 85-62, so North Carolina failed to cover -1.5.

“I love the balance with Louisiana Tech. They have Crawford and Lofton inside. They have Ladeau. And Ladeau, over the last three games, he's shooting 60%, 12 of 20 from three-point range. So they bring the defense, and they just need to have offense, which they've shown recently. Louisiana Tech, I know they're one of the favorites, but I'm fine with it. Plus 300, I like their draw. I think it's going to be one of these top teams because, like Stucky said, I think getting a run here late from the preliminary round of the first round is going to be tough. But to me, they're playing the best. They've beaten all the other teams.”

2021 conference-tournament records show North Texas, not Louisiana Tech, won Conference USA.

“But Frank Martin, 10 points. You could get 10 on the road against an underachieving and going nowhere Kentucky team. To me, that seems like a good bet. I think it's a buy low spot. I think Martin will have them ready. And, you know, they've been they've been decent here on the road in these big spots. I'll take the points here against Kentucky with South Carolina.”

SEC results show Kentucky beat South Carolina by more than ten points, so South Carolina failed to cover +10.

“I think Northeastern at plus 400 is the way I would go.”

2021 conference-tournament records show Drexel won the CAA tournament, not Northeastern.

“I'll go with the third team there on the odd board with Army at plus 750.”

2021 conference-tournament records show Colgate won the Patriot League tournament, not Army.

“shooting threes at a great rate. McBride can make shots late. I cannot take West Virginia out. So that one I love, and I love the odds as well, 30 to one. I understand the argument about Illinois because the timing isn't right. So when you're looking at futures, when you get them is critical, right?”

NCAA records show Baylor, not West Virginia, won the 2021 men's national championship.

“in my head, but the password is Yachlich. I am taking Illinois, Chicago, getting 10 and a half at home against Wright State. They have defeated Wright State at home each of the past two years. And we know that Wright State can be very frenetic. Sometimes we get dominant Wright State and sometimes they struggle. Lost by 10 at Oakland, lost at home by two to Youngstown State, also lost by two at home to Cleveland State. So you never know what you're going to get, but you usually know you're going to get a good defensive effort from Yoclitch and the Flames in Illinois, Chicago. Now, they had a COVID shutdown earlier in the year, which is why they did not play from December 20th until January 8th. When they returned, some players were out, they were in disarray disarray they lost back-to-back games to Purdue Fort Wayne which is what has thrown everyone off but they had two games at home following that to Robert Morris who they beat that's a decent Robert Morris team they beat Youngstown State away and they lost two games to Northern Kentucky last week both were very close lost by four and lost by two thank you for the half point cover in the second one now they host Wright State but their team does have their players back. Maurice Commander has played eight games this year. He's been healthy. He's been playing well as a guard for them, shooting 40% from three-point range. They also have Braylon Bridges back who is out for a while 10 points per game five rebounds per game They have Kirk they have Diggins they score and they play defense I do not see Wright State coming in and blowing them out in the first game I think 10 and a half is too much I think it going to be very close I think Yachlich can actually pull the upset because we've seen the inconsistency with Wright State. So my pick is going to be take the 10 and a half at home on a Friday night. Give me Illinois, Chicago and cue the Bengals because I think they're going to keep it close and could pull the upset.”

Wright State beat UIC 72-47, so UIC +10.5 lost.

“The Blue Hose, folks, Presbyterian plus two.”

Longwood beat Presbyterian 49-45, so Presbyterian +2 lost.

“UNC is a five-and-a-half-point favorite against Auburn. You like them number one overall. Do you like them as a five-and-a-half-point favorite? Oh, I do.”

97-80 — Auburn upset North Carolina 97-80 in the Sweet 16 on Mar 29, 2019; North Carolina lost outright by 17, so the -5.5 spread did not cover.

“Mike, Florida State, Gonzaga. Gonzaga is a seven and a half point favorite. Obviously, we've seen this game before. Florida State in my final four. Shut the fuck up for a minute and let the guest answer the question. Maybe you should ask the question. I'm in the middle of it. Florida State, Gonzaga. Seven and a half, Mike. what do you think about this? We've seen it before you know, do the Seminoles have a chance to win this game outright? It comes down to your thoughts on Killian Tilly that's what it comes down to. Phil Koffer's not going to be there with the passing of his father. But if you look at the game last year, that was when Killian Tilly was announced. It was a four versus nine game that he wasn't eligible because he got injured, so he couldn't play in that game. In that game, Florida State battled Gonzaga and went right back and forth. The defense was at a premium, and everything was very close across the board except for one area, and that was with the rebounds. Florida State was able to get a lot of offensive rebounds, put stuff back in the basket. It's Killian Tilly. I think this is a bad matchup for Gonzaga. I'm grabbing those points. Could Gonzaga get the win? Sure, but so could Florida State, and you're going to give me that many points. If you think Killian Tilly's presence inside is going to make that big a difference, then you go with Gonzaga, but I'm going the other way. I'll gladly take those points.”

72-58 — Gonzaga beat Florida State 72-58 in the Sweet 16 on Mar 28, 2019, a 14-point margin, so Florida State did not cover +7.5.

“UVA-Oregon, UVA minus seven and a half. Give me your winning cover for each game. Purdue's going to beat Tennessee. Tennessee has had issues in each and every game. They almost blew that game to Iowa. How is it possible that you don't score that many points in the second half on Iowa? How is that even possible? They don't play any defense. I'll take Purdue with the way Carson Edwards is playing to win outright, and then the spread right now is one and a half. That's an easy one. Michigan-Texas Tech is a phenomenal game. Michigan, something has been off with their offense all year. Their three-point shooting has been very inconsistent. Teske inside does a nice job when he's not really pressed by athletic bigs, which he's going to be in this game. Texas Tech defense is at such a high. I'm going to take them, and I'll take the one and a half as well for that game. And then UVA-Oregon, I buy the Tony Bennett Redemption Tour. I think they're a very tough matchup. Oregon is still a 12-seat, guys. That's what they are. They have been hot, but they're going to be against a very disciplined Virginia team, shoots the three well, he has free throws, and makes you play their tempo. So I'll take UVA, and I will give those points as well against Oregon.”

53-49 — Virginia beat Oregon 53-49 in the Sweet 16 on Mar 28, 2019, only a 4-point margin, so Virginia did not cover -7.5.