Guest · 70-74-5 on settled picks
| League | futures | spread | total | moneyline | prop | other | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | — | 16-10+17% | 9-5+23% | — | 2-1 | — | 27-16+20% |
| Other | 5-14-5% | 0-1 | 5-2+28% | 4-2+26% | 0-1 | 1-1 | 15-21+4% |
| EPL | 3-2+34% | 1-0 | 1-5-68% | 2-6-52% | 2-2 | 1-0 | 10-15-19% |
| UCL | 2-4-33% | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2-3-24% | 0-1 | — | 6-11-33% |
| World Cup | 3-3+14% | 2-2 | 1-0 | — | — | 2-0 | 8-5+30% |
| MLB | 1-5+83% | — | 1-1 | — | 2-0 | — | 4-6+67% |
“[48:47] I think Jones has proven himself to be a competent starter, [48:50] but I don't think he's a massive ceiling raiser. [48:52] So, you know, like, the win totals are 7.5 out there. [48:55] Like, I did take some over, and I think that's a little bit low.”
“[51:37] Is there a bet for the people in the audience that are disposed towards a wager here and there in the Premier League that you like outside of Arsenal to win? [51:47] Which I agree with, by the way. [51:49] Yeah, I'm looking at Chelsea and there's a top four market out there where they're like minus 120. [51:55] I love Xabi Alonso more than probably most people do as well. [51:59] I think the one game a week thing is an underrated feature coming off of a World Cup year, [52:05] especially where Man United and Liverpool are going to be in European competitions, [52:10] probably going deep in them. [52:12] Chelsea have no Europe. [52:14] And for the first time in a while, that presents them opportunities to have fresher legs, [52:18] to have fewer injuries, because as much as Chelsea has bought a ton of players, [52:22] A lot of the really important ones, like Cole Palmer, [52:24] have barely been healthy for the last few years. [52:27] And so I think Chelsea, again, a lot of new players coming in again. [52:31] Morgan Rodgers I'm probably lower on than most people. [52:34] But Palmer and Rodgers together is a pretty fun combination of skills [52:37] in your midfield. [52:39] I think Chelsea, for me, it's kind of like a toss-up between 3, 4, and 5 [52:45] with Liverpool, United, and Chelsea. [52:48] I would go with Chelsea over the other two.”
“This is an easy one. Phillies to win the pennant.”
“My first future we talked about the other day. Ravens under 11 and a half wins.”
“Well, I've got a France to lose in the round of 16 at 4-1 bet. I'm going to be rooting on on July 4th as Germany makes their trip to Philly.”
France 1, Paraguay 0 — France beat Paraguay 1-0 in the Round of 16 on a Mbappe penalty and advanced, so the bet on France to lose the Round of 16 loses (ESPN).
“If you had told me Brazil's going to win 3-0, but they're going to lose Rafinha in the first half, and now his status is in doubt. I took Scotland plus 1.5 off the rip in terms of betting.”
Brazil 3, Scotland 0 — Brazil beat Scotland 3-0; Scotland lost by more than 1.5 goals so Scotland +1.5 does not cover (ESPN).
“Any bets for today that you'd like to share with the audience in any of the three games? I guess it's four. It wouldn't just one at midnight. Yeah. Yeah, I bet under two and a half in the opener here. The Messi game, minus 114 out there, minus 110 out there.”
Argentina 2, Austria 0 — Argentina beat Austria 2-0; combined 2 goals is under 2.5 (ESPN).
“let go dr Congo plus a half at plus 175 That is my best bet”
Colombia 1-0 Congo DR — FIFA's official schedule confirms Congo DR lost by one goal and did not cover plus one-half. (Congo DR goal margin: -1)
“What is Anthony DiBondo's World Cup final, and who's going to win the trophy? Who hoists the World Cup? Spain. I came back to Spain”
1-0 — Spain beat Argentina 1-0 after extra time to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup final (FIFA.com).
“but i think they're i think you know par is the round of 16 i think they're going to make the round of 16 i bet them to make the round of 16”
1-4 — The United States advanced to the Round of 16, where it lost 1-4 to Belgium on July 6, 2026 (ESPN).
“Give us a bet outside of Spain winning the World Cup for our audience. 10 seconds. Colombia plus 200 to win their group over Portugal.”
Colombia finished first in Group K with 7 points, ahead of Portugal's 5 (CBS Sports). (Colombia 7 pts, Portugal 5 pts)
“Japan to win their group over the Dutch. I'm down on the Dutch this tournament.”
Netherlands finished first in Group F with 7 points; Japan finished second with 5 (CBS Sports). (Netherlands 7 pts, Japan 5 pts)
“So for those inclined to place a couple of shekels down on a wager, Ben Shelton plus 2200 would be the bet for you at BetMGM? Yes, I actually think so, yeah.”
Alexander Zverev won the 2026 French Open men's singles title, defeating Flavio Cobolli in the final; Ben Shelton did not win the tournament (Roland-Garros official site).
“PSG is a small favorite to lift the trophy, and that takes into account potential extra time and penalty kicks, minus 145. Arsenal, plus 115. If people want to bet on the Champions League final, who should they bet on and why? Arsenal and PSG, 60 seconds for the answer. Yeah, so just the classic meta here is that it's a big game and it's Mikel Arteta. So you are inclined to look toward the ability to shut the game down. And this really comes down to Arsenal's defense being, you mentioned PSG as one of the elite teams, best club teams ever. you know arsenal are one of the best defensive teams of my lifetime metrically the last three years what they've done in the premier league has been nothing short of amazing arsenal have an advantage on set pieces i understand why everybody prefers to watch psg prefers to enjoy their games says wow look at all the attacking players they have i don't see a material difference in the quality of these two teams and i do think like my numbers have arsenal as a pick them dead dead pick them uh and hash traffic kimmy important right back for psg questionable to play in this game looks like he's leaning toward out he matters certainly too in the psg's creativity and attack so i think arsenal at you know plus 115 116 to lift the trophy worth a bet but i also definitely think correlated to the under i think if you like arsenal you should be betting some kind of under here because they are going to have to shut this game down and make it as ugly and as gross as possible if they're going to win it it's not sexy but it is pretty damn effective uh it pains me to say this i need to go wash my mouth out with soap but i think arsenal are going to do it”
1-1 — Paris Saint-Germain beat Arsenal 4-3 on penalties after a 1-1 draw in the 2026 UEFA Champions League final; Arsenal did not lift the trophy (ESPN match report).
“minus 105 against the bottom five team i'm gonna take the blues to win uh tomorrow bright and early”
NFO 0, CHE 3 — Chelsea beat Nottingham Forest 3-0; the Chelsea moneyline wins (ESPN match report).
“Yeah, I bet under two and a half here.”
TOT 1, AVL 2 — Aston Villa beat Tottenham 2-1; the combined 3 goals went over the 2.5 total, busting the under (ESPN match report).
“The team I'm buying, as a result, it's just like Chelsea's just kind of sitting there with by far the most talent of all those teams I just mentioned in that second tier. And Cole Palmer is going to be out another month, but the underlying numbers say that it's like top four and a gap. So at plus 110 right now”
Chelsea finished outside the Premier League top four in 2025-26; the final top four were Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Aston Villa (ESPN final standings).
“Real quick, Arsenal minus 110 is still cheap to win the Premier League. I want to throw that out there. I bet more of that over the last two weeks.”
Arsenal won the 2025-26 Premier League title with 85 points, finishing first (ESPN final standings).
“the only way I can look to bet this game is actually the under now. And under three is right around like minus 115 if you can find it.”
MUN 2, CHE 1 — Manchester United beat Chelsea 2-1, a combined 3 goals; under 3 pushes (ESPN match report).
“Yeah, I lay the chalk. I like Arsenal at home. Minus 110.”
ARS 1, MCI 1 — Arsenal drew Manchester City 1-1; Arsenal moneyline loses on a draw (ESPN match report).
“Drawing a bet like minus 125 is still fine.”
BOU 0, NEW 0 — Bournemouth and Newcastle drew 0-0; Bournemouth draw-no-bet pushes, stake refunded (ESPN match report).
“I like Roma draw no bet here”
LAZ 0, ROM 1 — Roma beat Lazio 1-0 on a Lorenzo Pellegrini goal; Roma draw-no-bet wins outright (ESPN match report).
“at 2.5 it's to quote the great Arnold Schwarzenegger go Chargers go”
LAC 23, DEN 20 — LA Chargers beat Denver 23-20; Chargers -2.5 covers by 3 (ESPN box score).
“Texans, Jags, under 44.”
JAX 17, HOU 10 — Jacksonville beat Houston 17-10, a combined 27 points; under 44 covers (ESPN box score).
“I think the Yankees right now, I saw 5-1 American League earlier.”
Toronto beat Seattle 4-3 in the 2025 ALCS to win the American League pennant; the Yankees futures pick loses (MLB.com). (2025 ALCS: Blue Jays def. Mariners, 4 games to 3)
“Yeah, let's go to La Liga. The market still says Real Madrid is better than Barcelona. I will pay to find out. I'm taking Barcelona to win La Liga. Anything plus money, there's plus money out there in the market.”
Barcelona clinched the 2025-26 La Liga title on 10 May 2026 with a 2-0 win over Real Madrid, finishing first with 94 points (Wikipedia: 2025-26 La Liga).
“Alright. Anthony, give me your plays. And, Simon, after this conversation, you are a professional better who's got a keen insight into psyche. I wanna hear what your play is, and then I will give you mine. Yeah. So I did I did take some tag, Lei. I I do think that, his popularity, his his emerging markets kinda play is the most interesting angle of this entire conclave because of his opportunity.”
The 2025 papal conclave elected Cardinal Robert Prevost, who took the name Pope Leo XIV, on May 8, 2025; Luis Antonio Tagle was not elected, so the bet lost.
“But, Abilene is my favorite dark horse. [38:04] I found the equivalent of 20 to one, on him, so I took some of that.”
The 2025 papal conclave elected Cardinal Robert Prevost, who took the name Pope Leo XIV, on May 8, 2025; Jean-Marc Aveline was not elected, so the bet lost.
“So I like the Vikings team total. I don't know that they'll win. I think this is going to be another shootout, but 27 and a half, you can get over it plus money.”
DET 31, MIN 9 — Lions beat Vikings 31-9 on Jan 5, 2025 (ESPN box score); Minnesota's team total of 9 points finished well under the 27.5 line, so the Vikings team total over 27.5 pick lost.
“I took Kansas City out of principle, 10 and a half.”
DEN 38, KC 0 — Broncos beat Chiefs 38-0 on Jan 5, 2025 (ESPN box score); Kansas City's -38 margin fails to cover the +10.5 line, so the Chiefs +10.5 pick lost.
“So three and a half, the over is still minus 120.”
TOT 1, NEW 2 — Newcastle beat Tottenham 2-1 on Jan 4, 2025 (ESPN match report); combined 3 goals fell short of the 3.5 total, so the over 3.5 goals pick lost.
“Italy plus 140, Switzerland plus 220 in the 90. Do you have any early thoughts on those two matches, Germany, Denmark, Switzerland, and Italy? Yeah, so I was looking, where's the money line open for Germany? I just pulled up my numbers. Germany minus 135. Yeah, that's actually a little short. That's a little short for me. I have them priced, Switzerland priced better than Denmark, and we just saw Germany-Switzerland play the final day, and Germany closed right around minus 145. So I'm surprised to see them shorter. I think that should be closer to minus 165, 170. So I will probably be letting Germany as soon as we get off this show. You know, Denmark has had a fine run, but has no attacking thrust whatsoever to really threaten Germany. I think that's the problem where we're going to kind of see how good this Germany defense really is as we get later into this tournament as they play elite teams. because I still am a little dubious, but Denmark is not that team, and Hoyland has not really given them anything from an attacking perspective so far through three matches. He's had one good chance, and that was about it, and it was saved by Oblak way back in the first match. So I'm going to be probably laying some Germany.”
2-0 — Germany beat Denmark 2-0 in regulation in their Euro 2024 round of 16 match.
“So I'm going to be probably laying some Germany. The other match, I have Italy at plus 157 to three-way, so the total at 2.16. So maybe an under, but it's like under 2.5 minus 160. I saw the opener, so it probably still goes under if you want to lay the juice there. Italy, the one person they do lose is Riccardo Caliafori, who's been probably one of the breakout stars of this tournament, the Bologna defender that looks like Maldini. He will miss this match, and it's not just his defensive nature, but he's so good at ball carrying and bringing the ball forward. It's going to be really tough for them to break down a Swiss defense that's been pretty elite thus far in this tournament. So I think that one's low scoring, and I think Germany rolls.”
0-2 — Switzerland beat Italy 2-0 in their Euro 2024 round of 16 match, so the total of two goals stayed under 2.5.
“They get into the knockout stage. They get a pretty friendly path. Do you want to hear it? I have the market. So I'm guessing Mbappe is the favorite now. Mbappe at five, Kane six, Musiala seven, Ronaldo and Havertz and Fulkeru goal at 10, Gakpo 12, Bellingham 14, Lukaku 14, Morata 14. I mean, you will never see a more wide open golden boot market in a major tournament ever. Nobody has more than two goals. And there's, I think, five guys with two goals. Two of them play for Germany, Musiala and Fulkeru. I have no, I'm throwing my hands up in the air and saying, I got no idea. I'm still, I'm Lukaku. I bet him 21 to one. He hasn't scored a goal yet and his odds are better than they were then. So that's how insane this market is right now. I have nothing on that, to be honest with you.”
Romelu Lukaku scored only one goal at Euro 2024; the Golden Boot was shared by six players with three goals each, so Lukaku did not win it. (Lukaku: 1 goal)
“Yeah, so in the immediate term, I came away far more impressed with the French defensively yesterday than I did in attack. They created, they basically allowed one chance. It was the big chance that Mignon made a great save on Baumgartner right before halftime. France then scored down the other end on an own goal. But, you know, Deschamps has kind of made this work, not doing anything out of possession, not being a possession giant, not really pressing, not really forcing the issue. because he says, look, we have incredible dribblers in space. We have the most talent. We have the best midfield passing range. We have Kriyazman. We have Mbappe. And we trust that at the end of the day, that's going to win us matches. And it's no surprise that France's dominance of the world stage started in 2018 with Mbappe's breakout. And so it's just not the same team without him. And there isn't anybody that has that game-breaking quality and pace. Dembele has always kind of been a little bit of a poor man's Mbappe on the other side. and maybe they pushed Haram out there, and they put Giroud in, it's gonna make them more direct, even more direct than they already were, and going up against these Dutch center backs, I just don't see a ton of goals in this game, and I think the same is true for the Dutch, who don't really have a midfield, and they're playing an extremely direct style, and it worked against Poland, but they were extremely narrow against Poland, and the French center backs, not just Conte as a defensive midfielder, who looked very good in the first start, but also Saliba, who for my money, is one of the best center backs in the world. Him getting the start upgrades the French defense. So I think this is kind of a stalemate-y kind of game. I did bet some under two and a half at minus 117 this morning. I think it's a low-scoring affair.”
0-0 — Netherlands and France finished 0-0 on June 21, 2024, so the under 2.5 total goals bet won (ESPN).
“Here where I insert my Romelu Lukaku joke I got some 21 to one I wish they gave out the award for XG as golden boot I feel like I be in first right now because he had two goals ruled out and then he had two big misses And I think Belgium is going to truck offensively in their last two group games because if you look at the opponents, I know Romania had a nice showing, you know, because they had two beautiful goals from outside the box, but they're going to face a much more potent attacking team in Belgium. And then Ukraine looked really bad defensively in that game, the first game. So Belgium is still going to get through. I think they're actually a good bet to win the group at plus 250. And then as you look, you know, I know everybody's probably thinking you're an idiot, but Lukaku and Havertz are the two guys for me right now.”
UEFA shared the Euro 2024 Golden Boot among six players tied on three goals (Harry Kane, Dani Olmo, Cody Gakpo, Georges Mikautadze, Jamal Musiala, Ivan Schranz); Romelu Lukaku was not among them (ESPN).
“This can be one game. This could be a couple. Give us one or several bets that you are eyeing here for the next wave of games coming up in Euro 2024. Yes, I mentioned it in the last segment. I like under two and a half in the France-Netherlands game on Friday at three. Should be a good one. And I also like under two and a half Albania-Croatia bright and early tomorrow. I do think the match is on TV, so no more Fubo, at least tomorrow. Albania-Croatia under two and a half. Just think Croatia possessions it to death. and Albania really I thought held up pretty well out of possession defensively against Italy I think Croatia is even more limited so this strikes me as a pretty low event match and two teams that I was low on attacking wise coming into the tournament Anthony my last question will be on Euro also just you know I think people like a not a sound”
2-2 — Croatia and Albania drew 2-2 on June 19, 2024, producing four goals, so the under 2.5 total goals bet lost (ESPN).
“So Anthony, let's reframe the United States here. I think some good thoughts on even some of their individual matches, what we can expect in the tournament. There's a market that's offered all the time for soccer tournaments, NFL playoffs, NBA playoffs, stage of elimination. Right. Like when is that when is this team going to get what is the most likely thing to happen in this tournament? It sounds like you're saying, well, they're going to make it, but then don't hold your breath on anything else as and make it to the knockout round of the tournament. So, like, give me the most likely give me the most likely two or three even stages of elimination for the United States and Copa America. Yeah, so the quarterfinal opened minus 110. It's taken some money up to minus 130. We kind of have frames of reference here because if they make the quarterfinal, they're going to play either Colombia or Brazil, almost certainly, barring something crazy from Paraguay, which they have scored exactly two goals in the last calendar year, so I'm not too confident in them scoring enough. So they going to face either Colombia or Brazil They just played Colombia and Brazil in friendlies and to be honest both teams played pretty close to full strength lineups Brazil was a minus 300 favorite against the United States. That did get way too high by the end, a little bit of bias off of the last game. But even still, Brazil is going to be laying a goal in that match, maybe a goal in a quarter in the United States. And then Colombia closed a small favorite. They were a little better than a pick them. So, you know, minus 130 in the quarterfinal, if the chalk holds, they'll play Brazil. And if Columbia pulls an upset or the U.S. wins their group, they'll play Columbia. But at worst, that's pretty close to a break even price. Even if even if they do get Columbia, there'll be a dog to advance. So I like that quarterfinal minus 130. I've laid minus 110. I'd lay it up at minus 130 as well. You better you better hear a Nick and Ken on a Tuesday talking Copa America”
The United States was eliminated in the Copa America 2024 group stage after a 1-0 loss to Uruguay, not in the quarterfinals as the bet required (ESPN).
“So I'm out on Brazil. At price, I'm out on Brazil. So if Argentina is a deserved favorite, Brazil's the worst bet on the board. You mentioned a couple other teams, and maybe you want to throw one in that's maybe a little bit further down the board. If it's not Argentina, and people don't want to play plus 175 for a team to win the tournament, Where would you look for a team to win, to bet on, to win Copa America if it's not going to be the Argentines? I think Colombia, at price, is the best number there. Their numbers, like I said, comparable to Uruguay, comparable to Brazil. They have a really excellent work rate in the midfield. They have a way of playing that's worked. They're unbeaten in 23 now. In their World Cup qualifying, three wins, three draws. They sit one point behind Uruguay in that pool. They've been highly competitive away from home as well. So that's an encouraging thing. We just saw them take the United States to the woodshed. You know, the draw is not going to be easy for anybody on that half. Ecuador was priced as low as 25 to one. And then people kind of wised up to the fact that, wait a second, like Ecuador could just win their group and probably waltz to the semifinals. They've now been bet down to 16. They're a very underrated defensive team. I think they're going to make the semi. They're plus 175 to win group B. I think Mexico is really flawed. So Ecuador and Colombia are kind of the two teams that I'm intrigued in in this tournament. Colombia definitely has a much higher ceiling in terms of actually winning it. But again, Colombia, let's say they get out of the group, and they're plus 280 to win Group D. That's probably my favorite bet in this whole field. Even if they win the group, they're still getting the United States on the road in the quarters or Uruguay. They win that, they could see Uruguay or Brazil in the semifinal. And if they win that, then they got to play Argentina. So it's not going to be easy. But I don't really think Colombia is materially worse than either of those two teams that they'd be paired up against. and they're probably a little better than the United States. So Colombia for me is the squad.”
Colombia finished first in Copa America 2024 Group D with 7 points (2W-1D-0L), ahead of Brazil, Costa Rica, and Paraguay (CONMEBOL Copa America official standings).
“at the talent, I mean, they're at a pretty big talent deficit to Switzerland to the point where you can get Germany and Switzerland to both finish one, two at plus one seventy five. That's my favorite bet in this group. The Swiss are interesting because they have a they have a striker problem. They're relying on some unproven young guys to score. But the spine of this team, the midfield, the defense, they're aging, but they're not quite cooked yet. They're on washed watch, but they're not washed. So I think the Swiss team still has a much higher floor. And I think the Swiss ultimately get past Hungary, get second. Scotland, their leading scorer in qualifying was Man United midfielder Scott McTominay. He's six to one to lead the Scots in goals, you might only need one to get it because the Scottish team doesn't have a ton of forward talent to really get through this groove. I think it's going to be up against it. So yeah, I do think the chalk rolls here. Hungary is, I'm calling them the Turkey of 2020. Everybody hyped Turkey, group A of the Euros in 2021, and they were horrible. I was one of those people. I'm not falling for it. I'm not falling for Hungary. I'm going with the Germans and the Swiss. I think Denmark at the last World Cup would probably fall into that category. Also like”
Germany won Euro 2024 Group A (7 pts) with Switzerland 2nd (5 pts), matching the exact Germany-first/Switzerland-second bet.
“I've taken Italy team total under six and a half goals for the whole tournament, which you can find at multiple books.”
Italy scored 3 goals in Euro 2024 Group B play (eliminated in the round of 16 with no further goals), well under the 6.5 team-total line.
“I've taken Croatia under five and a half goals for the whole tournament. That one's been bet out of range now, up to minus 150.”
Croatia scored 3 goals across their three Euro 2024 Group B games before elimination, under the 5.5 team-total line.
“But Albania under one and a half goals, plus 110.”
Albania scored 3 goals across their three Euro 2024 Group B games, over the 1.5 team-total line.
“cause some problems for France in the first match. In fact, I took some Austria plus one on the Asian handicap line in that match. So asking for pain going against France in the first match.”
France 1, Austria 0 — France beat Austria 1-0 in their Euro 2024 Group D opener; Austria's +1 Asian handicap settles as a push.
“So I took the Dutch 20 to one. I liked them at 18 to one too. And I said on our Ringer soccer show pod that I'm going to take the Dutch and go all in and say that they're going to win the Euros in Germany. But again, if I had to take one of the top five, it would be Germany. So I'm going to go with my, I'm going to put my neck out there. I'm going to take my Dutch to stun this Euro tournament. But yeah, them and Germany in the final. Dutch win it. Just we're into the chaos, and maybe we'll get a shock one.”
England 2, Netherlands 1 — Netherlands lost 2-1 to England in the Euro 2024 semifinal and did not win the tournament.
“I think United's worth a shot on the money line”
2-2 — Manchester United and Liverpool drew 2-2 at Old Trafford on 4/7/24, so the Manchester United moneyline lost on the draw (ESPN).
“So I like the under here. Under two and a half at plus 125 is good”
Brighton 0, Arsenal 3 — Arsenal beat Brighton 3-0 on 4/6/24, a combined 3 goals, so Under 2.5 goals lost (ESPN).
“I do like under 2.5 at plus money”
Real Madrid 3, Manchester City 3 — Real Madrid and Manchester City drew 3-3 on 4/9/24 in the Champions League quarterfinal first leg, a combined 6 goals, so Under 2.5 goals lost (ESPN).
“I like them on the money line”
2-2 — Arsenal and Bayern Munich drew 2-2 on 4/9/24 in the Champions League quarterfinal first leg, so the Arsenal moneyline lost on the draw (ESPN).
“If you can still find better than minus 130, 135, I think Arsenal to advance is a good bet too”
Leg 1: 2-2; Leg 2: Bayern 1-0 Arsenal; Aggregate: Bayern 3-2 — After a 2-2 first-leg draw on 4/9/24, Bayern Munich beat Arsenal 1-0 in the second leg on 4/17/24 to advance 3-2 on aggregate; Arsenal did not advance (ESPN).
“i think atleti advances here if you could find i'd lay up to minus 130 on atleti”
Leg 1: Atletico 2-1 Dortmund; Leg 2: Dortmund 4-2 Atletico; Aggregate: Dortmund 5-4 — Atletico Madrid won the first leg 2-1 on 4/10/24, but Borussia Dortmund won the second leg 4-2 on 4/16/24 to advance 5-4 on aggregate; Atletico did not advance (ESPN).
“Let's go with Harrison Butker over one and a half field goals made at minus 120.”
ESPN's box score credits Butker with four field goals, so the over won as stored.
“second half under 23 and a half is uh how”
ESPN's box score includes overtime in the second-half scoring and confirms the under loss as stored.
“I'm going to go with Lamar Jackson under 208.5 pass yards.”
ESPN's box score lists Jackson above the passing-yard under, so the prop lost as stored.
“brock purdy to throw an interception over half interception plus 105 so that's changed too”
ESPN's box score records one Purdy interception, so the over-interceptions prop won as stored.
“Yeah, so I was hoping this would get to three, and there were briefly some threes in the market, and now it's down to two and a half and heading toward two. So I don't think we're going to get those threes. But I'm going to take Houston here with the points in this matchup.”
45-14 — ESPN box score: Houston beat Cleveland 45-14, so Texans +2.5 covered.
“So give me the over, 50 and a half, and I'll be rooting for the Packers”
48-32 — ESPN box score: Green Bay beat Dallas 48-32, a combined 80 points, so over 50.5 won.
“The pencil gods will save us under 44.”
32-9 — ESPN box score: Tampa Bay beat Philadelphia 32-9, a combined 41 points, so under 44 won.
“So I'm catching one and a half on the road in a better spot, and so I'm going to take the Cowboys plus one and a half to win this one.”
22-20 — Miami beat Dallas 22-20, so Cowboys +1.5 did not cover (ESPN Week 16 scoreboard).
“So I love this over at 46 and a half And I just really think that the market is overvaluing this Ravens defense and this Niners defense”
33-19 — Baltimore beat San Francisco 33-19, a 52-point total that beat Over 46.5 (ESPN box score).
“I like Arizona plus 10 on the look ahead. I think this offense since Kyler has come back has shown a lot of life.”
35-31 — Arizona beat Philadelphia 35-31, so Cardinals +10 covered (ESPN Week 17 scoreboard).
“So I'm riding with the cheeseheads once again. Green Bay minus three and a half at home against Tampa Bay.”
ESPN records Tampa Bay winning outright, so the Packers spread lost as stored.
“So give me the Jets. Zach Wilson, plus eight and a half against Miami.”
ESPN records Miami winning by more than the stated spread, so the Jets spread lost as stored.
“So I think that the market is too low on this total at 42.5. And I'm going to play the over against it.”
ESPN's final score stays below the stated total, so the over lost as stored.
“So giving me the San Francisco team total over 24.5 is my best bet of this week”
ESPN's final score shows San Francisco above the stated team total, so the over won as stored.
“I'm going to go with the Los Angeles Rams minus three and a half.”
ESPN records the Rams winning by more than the stated spread, so the spread won as stored.
“and the Packers plus six.”
ESPN records Green Bay winning outright, so the Packers spread won as stored.
“So I'm going to take the Packers plus seven and a half.”
29-22 — Green Bay won 29-22, so the Packers covered +7.5 as stored (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“And I'm going to happily take three and a half with Buffalo on the road.”
37-34 — Philadelphia won 37-34 in overtime, leaving Buffalo within +3.5 as stored (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“So I'm going with the Falcons at home. I think these two teams are even at worst and I'm getting a point at home. So Falcons, I'm back in on Brandon's boys. I know I've called them Ponzi scheme, I think, on this pod earlier this year. But I'm in on Atlanta because the Saints are also a front. So did the line will move if Jameis is now starting? I mean it moved about a point and a half for Carr. Yeah, because right now it's Atlanta minus one, one and a half.”
24-15 — Atlanta won 24-15, so the Falcons covered +1 as stored (ESPN Week 12 scoreboard).
“The Green Bay Packers, plus one.”
24-10 — Minnesota beat Green Bay 24-10, so Packers +1 lost.
“I like Jacksonville minus two and a half.”
20-10 — Jacksonville beat Pittsburgh 20-10, so Jaguars -2.5 covered.
“I'm going to go with the Houston Texans plus one and a half on the road against the Atlanta Falcons.”
21-19 — Atlanta won 21-19, so Houston did not cover +1.5 as stored (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“Dallas Cowboys plus three and a half against the San Francisco 49ers.”
42-10 — San Francisco won 42-10, so Dallas did not cover +3.5 as stored (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“tennessee indianapolis over 42 and a half uh afc south overs you know just the beautiful bet”
23-16 — Indianapolis won 23-16, a 39-point total that stayed below 42.5 as stored (ESPN Week 5 scoreboard).
“I did bet some under two and a half here on Monday night”
FUL 0-2 CHE — Chelsea beat Fulham 2-0 on 10/2/2023; combined goals = 2, under 2.5 covers (ESPN).
“And I also like both teams to score no”
FUL 0-2 CHE — Chelsea beat Fulham 2-0 on 10/2/2023 (Mudryk, Broja); Fulham was shut out, so both teams did not score and 'BTTS No' wins (ESPN).
“I bet them drawn a bet minus 110.”
Aston Villa 6-1 Brighton — Aston Villa beat Brighton 6-1 on 9/30/2023 (Ollie Watkins hat-trick); Brighton lost outright, so the draw-no-bet loses (ESPN).
“You can get the win or the draw, minus 110. I think they're going to result here at home.”
RB Leipzig 2-2 Bayern Munich — RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich drew 2-2 on 9/30/2023 (Openda, Lukeba for Leipzig; Kane pen, Sane for Bayern); RB Leipzig double chance (win or draw) covers on a draw (ESPN).
“Pape Matar Sarr, 12-1, anytime goal scorer you can find out there.”
ARS 2, TOT 2 — Arsenal and Tottenham drew 2-2 on 9/24/2023 (Romero own goal and Saka pen for Arsenal, Son brace for Spurs); Pape Matar Sarr did not score, so the anytime-goalscorer pick busts (ESPN match report).
“You can also find over one and a half shots at plus money.”
In the 2-2 Arsenal-Tottenham draw on 9/24/2023, Pape Matar Sarr recorded 2 shots, clearing the over 1.5 shots line (ESPN match report for the game; StatMuse for the individual shot count). (2 shots)
“And I think the Blues finally break this little run they been in and finally get a goal and a win. And I'm taking them on the money line.”
AVL 1, CHE 0 — Aston Villa beat Chelsea 1-0 on 9/24/2023 (Ollie Watkins, 73'), so the Chelsea moneyline pick busts (ESPN final).
“Yeah, I took some under three.”
NEW 8, SHU 0 — Newcastle beat Sheffield United 8-0 on 9/24/2023; combined goals of 8 blow past the under-3 total, so the pick busts (ESPN final).
“I only have to lay minus 105, 110. I'm going to lay that there and take the favorite, the Eagles at home.”
CRY 0, FUL 0 — Crystal Palace and Fulham played to a 0-0 draw on 9/23/2023; Crystal Palace didn't win outright, so the moneyline pick busts (ESPN final).
“You can find draw-no-bet minus 115. We're going to go with Rayo Vallecano, the Spanish capital boys at home.”
RAY 1, VIL 1 — Rayo Vallecano and Villarreal drew 1-1 on 9/24/2023 (K. Perez 16', Sorloth 15'); a draw refunds a draw-no-bet wager on Rayo Vallecano (ESPN final).
“I'm going to go with the Tennessee Titans plus three against the New Orleans Saints.”
16-15 — New Orleans won 16-15, leaving Tennessee within +3 as stored (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“Did not have Sam Darnold and Phillip Rivers discussion in the week one pod on my video card, but I'm going to go with the Dallas Cowboys, minus three. I do not love that as we were recording this podcast, Tyron Smith just popped up on the injury report with a potential issue. But I'm going to assume he's going to be good to go for Sunday night. This Dallas team, probably the team I'm buying the most relative to the market in the entire league. Their win total you can find in over 10 and minus 135. Love that. But I like them in this spot against the Giants. Look the last time we saw the Giants play football they closed an eight road underdog in Philadelphia in the divisional round of the playoffs and got absolutely waxed in that game And now you know if you were to just say OK we going to flip home field I didn have a material difference between the two teams But if you flipped home field that would get you to about what this number is right now with Dallas laying three and a half at some books but currently a minus three at BetMGM And, of course, the almighty three, very important. Bet it there. Get the minus three, minus 115 is out there as we speak.”
40-0 — Dallas won 40-0, so the Cowboys covered -3 as stored (ESPN Week 1 scoreboard).
“And I do have a long shot ticket that books are already offering me 10x my original stake to cash out right now because of how much the market has moved.”
Inter Miami did not win the 2023 MLS Cup; Columbus Crew beat LAFC 2-1 on Dec 9, 2023 to claim the title (MLS official).
“So once I apply home field, I think Newcastle should be around even money. So I did take some plus 120.”
NEW 1, LIV 2 — Liverpool beat Newcastle United 2-1 on Aug 27, 2023 (Nunez brace); Newcastle moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“And I do like the over in this matchup. And I do like both teams to score. I think this is a 2-1 kind of game.”
EVE 0, WOL 1 — Everton lost to Wolves 0-1 on Aug 26, 2023 (Kalajdzic goal); Everton failed to score, so Both Teams To Score misses (ESPN box score).
“Okay, we'll go with 9.30 Saturday, Dortmund and Bochum. Dortmund under three and a half goals for the game, both teams.”
BOC 1, DOR 1 — Bochum and Dortmund drew 1-1 on Aug 26, 2023 (Stoger, Malen goals); total of 2 goals is under 3.5 (ESPN box score).
“So I like Spain to – I bet them draw no bet because I just really don't want penalties to happen to me.”
Spain 1, England 0 — Spain beat England 1-0 in the Aug 20, 2023 Women's World Cup final (Olga Carmona goal), so Spain won outright and the draw no bet cashed (ESPN match report).
“I bet the over two and a half. The market has come up a lot. It was as low as 130 up to 175 now.”
Tottenham 2, Manchester United 0 — Tottenham beat Manchester United 2-0 on Aug 19, 2023; combined goals totaled 2, under the 2.5 line, so the over bet lost (ESPN match report).
“I think they're vulnerable, and I like Spurs here. Draw no bet. You can find plus money out there, plus 110 on them to get a result here at worst and maybe even win it.”
Tottenham 2, Manchester United 0 — Tottenham beat Manchester United 2-0 on Aug 19, 2023, so Tottenham won outright and the draw no bet cashed (ESPN match report).
“it's going to be a Brighton for me again, just like last week, the Seagulls on the money line, on the road at Wolves.”
Wolves 1, Brighton 4 — Brighton & Hove Albion beat Wolverhampton Wanderers 4-1 on Aug 19, 2023, so the Brighton moneyline bet won (ESPN match report).
“My favorite bet is Spain money line against the Dutch. You can find even money out there Thursday night, 9 p.m. Eastern.”
2-1 — Spain beat the Netherlands 2-1 after extra time in the Aug 10, 2023 Women's World Cup quarterfinal (Caldentey pen 81', Paralluelo 111'), so the Spain moneyline cashes (ESPN match report).
“I'm gonna go with Brighton plus 550 plus 650s are out there to make the top four.”
Brighton & Hove Albion finished 11th in the 2023-24 Premier League with 48 points, missing the top four. (Brighton & Hove Albion: 11th, 48 points)
“Bournemouth home dog against West Ham. Pick them plus 105, plus 110.”
1-1 — Bournemouth drew West Ham 1-1 on Aug 12, 2023 (Bowen 51', Solanke 82'), an exact push against the pick'em line (ESPN box score).
“I naturally like Brighton. Minus one and a half at home against Luton. I think they roll”
4-1 — Brighton & Hove Albion beat Luton Town 4-1 on Aug 12, 2023, a 3-goal margin that covers the -1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I have a pop golden boot ticket. And she scored the tie for the lead, 18-1.”
Hinata Miyazawa won the 2023 Women's World Cup Golden Boot with 5 goals; Alexandra Popp finished with 4, tied for runner-up (ESPN). (Hinata Miyazawa 5 goals; Alexandra Popp 4 goals)
“Yes, I did bet some Sweden to advance. Plus 140, like I said, is out there. I bet that.”
0-0 — Sweden and USA drew 0-0 through extra time; Sweden advanced by winning the shootout 5-4 (ESPN).
“And I also grabbed plus a half.”
0-0 — Sweden and USA finished 0-0 after 120 minutes (Sweden advanced 5-4 on penalties), so Sweden +0.5 covered (ESPN).
“I think plus one and a half is – I have bet plus one and a half for Nigeria in this game right around minus 110.”
0-0 — Nigeria and England finished 0-0 after 120 minutes (England advanced 4-2 on penalties), so Nigeria +1.5 covered (ESPN).
“I'm going to take Luis Robert. You can find him as high as five to one to win this.”
Official MLB Home Run Derby results confirm that Luis Robert to win the Home Run Derby settled lost as recorded.
“And I also like under for the longest home run, 490.5 is the highest number that I see out there right now.”
Official MLB Home Run Derby results confirm that Under longest home run 490.5 ft settled won as recorded.
“now it's uh j-rod for me is my winner at plus 550”
Official MLB Home Run Derby results confirm that Julio Rodriguez to win the Home Run Derby settled lost as recorded.
“But the outright props Julio over Adolis is 20”
Official MLB Home Run Derby results confirm that Julio Rodriguez to advance further than Adolis Garcia settled won as recorded.
“Julio over Rosarena is 30-1. [12:41] So I hit both of those as well.”
Julio Rodríguez and Randy Arozarena were both eliminated in the 2023 Home Run Derby semifinals, so neither advanced farther and this head-to-head settles as a push. (Rodríguez and Arozarena eliminated in semifinals)
“Whereas my best bet is Sebastian Korda, as far as quarter [9:55] prices are concerned. That's out there at plus 450.”
Official Wimbledon draw confirm that Sebastian Korda to win Quarter 3 settled lost as recorded.
“I have decided on Tommy Paul as my official pick [34:00] at 20-1 I just like this draw too much”
Official Wimbledon draw confirm that Tommy Paul to win Quarter 2 settled lost as recorded.
“I didn't think Gil was going to mention that because I gave him out at 4-1 on the French Open pod and he got absolutely waxed. And I thought we'd get a little bit of a better number here, but I'm still gonna be riding with Feast as well. I think the surface is that much of a difference”
Official Wimbledon draw confirm that Arthur Fils ML settled lost as recorded.
“So I'm going to go with Hanfman to pull off an upset [47:46] against Fritz.”
Official Wimbledon draw confirm that Yannick Hanfmann ML (upset) settled lost as recorded.
“I will be betting Penniston to win a set. [48:11] May even sprinkle some money line too against Andy.”
Official Wimbledon draw confirm that Ryan Peniston to win a set vs Murray settled lost as recorded.
“I had Zverev plus 750 to win the quarter”
Alexander Zverev reached the French Open semifinal, so he won his quarter as stored (Roland-Garros).
“[23:49] He really loves to get the crowd involved. [23:50] if you could do it in Rome and really use it to an advantage I mean imagine what you can do with [23:55] this crap that's just a must-watch match like everybody needs to watch that match totally [24:01] I'm I'm with you um on that I do think but for Novak I think the first three rounds is really [24:08] where the draw is tough and then after that it gets it gets quite a bit easier uh I mean Andrei [24:13] Rublev and Karen Hachinov are both matchups that have been really good for Novak uh Dabundo you [24:20] want to go to kind of quarter bets here because I think Hachinov at 11-1 is the play here because”
Novak Djokovic beat Karen Khachanov in the quarterfinal, so Khachanov did not win his quarter as stored (Roland-Garros).
“You know, 10 to 1 for Ronald Acuna Jr. to win the MVP is my favorite bet for Atlanta.”
Ronald Acuna Jr. won the 2023 NL MVP award unanimously.
“he wants to give us a a home run long shot let's go baby byron buxton minnesota center fielder dh 60 to 1 you can find him that high”
Matt Olson led MLB with 54 home runs in 2023; Byron Buxton did not lead, so the HR-leader futures lost. (Olson 54 HR)
“oh yeah so we're talking new rules uh over on the arizona diamondbacks 74 and a half wins”
Diamondbacks finished 84-78 in 2023, over the 74.5-win total (ESPN standings). (84-78)
“My under, I'm going to go with [36:59] the Washington nationals under 59 and a half wins.”
Nationals finished 71-91 in 2023, well over the 59.5-win total, so the Nationals-under bet lost (ESPN standings). (71-91)
“As for my World Series prediction, [37:55] I agree with Sean on the Braves.”
The Braves were eliminated by the Phillies in the 2023 NLDS, and the Rangers won the 2023 World Series, so the Braves-to-win-the-World-Series future lost.
“[7:52] I did bet Novak minus 110 [7:54] as soon as the draw came out. I looked at it and I'm like, okay, Nadal, Medvedev, Tsitsipas,”
Novak Djokovic won the 2023 Australian Open, confirming the stored future win (Australian Open).
“[32:00] I'm in Berrettini plus 550 for me in this quarter. [32:02] That's my bet.”
Novak Djokovic won Quarter 4 and the tournament, so Berrettini's Quarter 4 future lost as stored (Australian Open draw).
“But I like the Chicago Bears, plus six on the road against Detroit.”
Detroit beat Chicago 41-10, so Bears +6 lost as stored (NFL).
“[26:00] the San Francisco 49ers and the New York football jets. And I like the New York football jets minus [26:06] one and a half against the Seattle Island Seahawks. Sorry, Brandon. I know you're getting”
Seattle beat the Jets 23-6, so Jets -1.5 lost as stored (NFL).
“the denver broncos country let's ride broncos plus 12 and a half at the kansas city chiefs”
Kansas City beat Denver 27-24, so Broncos +12.5 covered as stored (NFL).
“I like new England as well. Plus three against Cincinnati.”
Cincinnati beat New England 22-18, so Patriots +3 lost as stored (NFL).
“but at 47.5, I like the over.”
Dallas beat Philadelphia 40-34, so Over 47.5 won as stored (NFL box score).
“[33:20] millman delara debundo brandon anderson all on green bay yeah i actually took i took plus six [33:27] before the packers even kicked monday they were offering a look ahead like before the”
Green Bay beat Miami 26-20, so Packers +6 won as stored (NFL).
“So I like the Packers minus two and a half [35:53] and I bet it this morning.”
Green Bay beat Minnesota 41-17, so Packers -2.5 won as stored (NFL).
“Yeah, I'm taking the under 42 and a half right now.”
ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 12 final results and box score confirm Under 42.5 settled lost as recorded.
“Yeah, I'm taking the Pittsburgh Steelers plus two and a half against my Indianapolis Colts.”
ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 12 final results and box score confirm Steelers +2.5 settled won as recorded.
“I'm also going to bet the team total over 19 and a half points for Green Bay. I do think they'll have success running the ball. And I think that will set them up to have success going further down the field in this game.”
ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 12 final results and box score confirm Green Bay team total Over 19.5 settled won as recorded.
“We're going with the Detroit Lions plus three and a half at home against the Green Bay Packers.”
ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 9 final results and box score confirm Lions +3.5 settled won as recorded.
“Back to Anthony, back to you. What's your second best bet? I'm going to go with the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tennessee Titans under 46 and a half.”
ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 9 final results and box score confirm Under 46.5 settled won as recorded.
“i'm on the under 40 and a half it opened 42 and it's come down a little bit”
ESPN's 2022 NFL Week 9 final results and box score confirm Under 40.5 settled won as recorded.
“So give me Porto on the draw no bet line minus 115.”
UEFA's results record Porto defeating AC Milan.
“Leipzig plus one and a half minus one 30, like it to minus 135.”
UEFA's results record PSG winning by one, so Leipzig covered plus 1.5.
“And I'm going to get behind Ajax here on the money line. I think that it's going to be a high scoring game. So I'm not as worried about a draw. Ajax needs to win this if they want to win the group because they know that if they have to go to Dortmund in two weeks, they need to win. It's going to be a lot tougher. So they're not going to be looking to settle for any draws. so I like Ajax on the money line”
UEFA's results record Ajax defeating Borussia Dortmund.
“think Inter's due for some regression here. I think under three and a half goals here. I think it's a sleepy game. I'll take under three and a half goals, minus 125 or better. All right. And”
UEFA's results record Sheriff-Inter above 3.5 goals.
“that would wrap up the Tuesday slate. So we'll flip the page, move into Wednesday. I think the headliner here is pretty clear as well. That's Manchester United, minus 135 favorites against Atalanta, plus 360. The draw, plus 275. This game is taking place at Old Trafford. The theater of dreams. It has not been a theater of dreams for this Manchester United team lately. It feels like Manchester United's game plan as just a brand and as a club has been to turn Old Trafford into like a Manchester United nostalgia theme park. It's very strange. This group right now, Atalanta, is four points in first place. Young boys who beat United in their Champions League opener at three, United at three, Villarreal at one. I got to admit, I was pretty surprised that United was priced minus 135 after their loss to Leicester this over the weekend and just the way things been going for the club. Anthony, do you see anything this game? Were you as shocked as I was at the minus sign next to United? It really didn't move. I think the market, unfortunately, has been on this Manchester United thing for a little while, but they're just not that good. They've added Cristiano Ronaldo, who is very good in terms of the fact that he's now got four goals that he scored for them, three of which have come on rebound tap-ins, and the fourth of which went through the goalie's legs from about 15 yards out. Pretty poor piece of goalkeeping. Ronaldo is offering absolutely nothing in terms of pressing the front line of the opponent. His pressure rate in the prem like total pressures is the lowest in the league of regular starters per 90 So he not offering much They playing a man down essentially without the ball They have no plan to progress the ball through the midfield. It's, you know, and Karl Anko of the Athletic has been getting dragged on Twitter for this take that he's had. And, you know, he was kind of ripping Ole Gonosolshar a few weeks ago for the fact that they're playing against teams like Aston Villa and Everton, who they should be and have way more talent than, yet they're getting absolutely destroyed in transition. They look completely lost on the ball, and they pretty much hope that one of their really good players beats a man, gets a cross in, or gets a good shot off. And, you know, they score a goal off of a Greenwood, amazing, stunning goal against Leicester, but they concede over two and a half expected goals. Harry Maguire looked off the pace. They played a Pogba-Matic double pivot, which does not work against competent teams, which Leicester is and Atalanta definitely is. This is a really fascinating stylistic matchup. On one hand, you have an Atalanta team that's going to man mark. They're going to press high. They are going to apply a lot of pressure to Manchester United, which United has done relatively well against in the past. We've seen teams like Leeds who have gotten absolutely ripped apart by Manchester United. But they're also going to force Man United to play a lot of pass out of the back and try to progress the ball with a lot of resistance. And they haven't been able to do that at all recently. So it's a really interesting matchup. But what I think here is going to be a lot of United turnovers in their own half from Adelante's press one. And I think when Adelante gets broken through United's attacking talent, pretty much does the ball progression for them. They get the ball into the final third. They're going to be extremely dangerous. So I think there's gonna be a lot of chances at both ends here. I like over three at minus one 20 United defensively running really hot because David has been incredible. How long is that going to last? He's been pretty much a league average keeper for three years into the last seven or eight games. I don't expect it to last. So I think this game is going to have a lot of chances at both ends, a lot of goals. And I don't really show a ton on the money line, but I do like over three goals. It's always fun when United's struggling. The English media just sinks its teeth in. I think it was Jonathan Wilson who coined the nostalgia theme park.”
UEFA's results record Manchester United-Atalanta above three goals.
“Anthony, what about you? Yeah, look, I look to play against Bayern more often than not. They tend to be a very overrated public favorite. And here we are. They thrashed Barcelona. They thrashed Dinamo Kiev. And they're an overvalued favorite here. And like BJ mentioned, the thing for me is every projection system I look at, from BJ's numbers to what I have to what 538 and InfoGall both have, all have Bayern under 62% to win this game. The implied odds of a minus 250 favorite, a whole lot higher than 62%, closer to 70, 75. So you know will I feel good about this game when Bayern is up a goal in the 88th minute Still no If they up a goal in the stoppage time I still won feel good about my plus one and a half just because of how potent this Byron team can be Lewandowski hasn always been a great finisher which is part of the regression that has come for Byron a little bit offensively this year. They're just creating a ton of chances. He's always been an average finisher until the last two years when he became this dynamo finisher out of nowhere, and it surprisingly has not lasted. But the thing for me with Benfica, BJ already mentioned how stout they are defensively. For me, it's their counterattacking ability, which they showed against Barcelona that I didn't really expect them to have. I had Barcelona in that game I lost. I did not expect them to show as much potency and competency in counterattacking that Barcelona team. And I think they can find some success counterattacking through this Bayern midfield. They haven't looked particularly vulnerable, but I still think with almost the same personnel as last year, they're going to have some defensive issues down the road. Maybe that comes on Wednesday afternoon. Hopefully it does and Benfica can get on the board because I think we're going to need a goal from Benfica to get this plus one and a half in. But I agree I'm on plus one and a half at minus 130 or better.”
UEFA's results record Bayern winning by more than 1.5 over Benfica.
“So give me Sevilla on the money line. Anything plus money is fine.”
UEFA's results record Sevilla drawing Lille rather than winning.
“Give me plus 225 on Malmo to score a goal.”
UEFA's results record Malmö failing to score against Chelsea.
“But the number one play I like in this group is City to win it The best team in the world should not be an underdog to win their Champions League group And they are. So plus 110 for me. It's actually my favorite bet I've made in this entire Champions League so far in terms of the group stages.”
UEFA's 2021-22 results list Manchester City first in Group A on 12 points, ahead of PSG.
“Yeah, actually, I'll recommend a play on Liverpool. I already played at even money. They're minus 110 right now to win the group. I don't really see a threat to them in this group. BJ mentioned Milan. They're on the fade list.”
UEFA's 2021-22 results list Liverpool first in Group B on 18 points.
“I do have some notes on Shakhtar, who I agree with. BJ is undervalued here. Their new manager, Roberto Dezerbi, recently managing Sassuolo, has a lot of experience going up against the Lazio-Nzaghi team that now is Inter Milan's manager. So Simone Nzaghi, Inter not quite as good, have not been particularly impressed by their first couple of games. I know they rolled Genoa, who's awful, but they did not impress me at all against Verona. They stole that win. Inter, still good in the midfield, still probably the second best team in this group, but we'll also be taking some Shakhtar to advance along with BJ at plus 170.”
UEFA's 2021-22 results list Shakhtar Donetsk fourth in Group D on two points, outside the Round of 16 places.
“I'm doing it. Shakhtar Moneyline minus 125 crazy low. Shakhtar is the experienced team.”
Sheriff 2, Shakhtar 0 — UEFA's 2021-22 results record Sheriff beating Shakhtar Donetsk 2-0, so Shakhtar's moneyline lost.
“I mean, it has to be Brighton, right? And I know that BJ has already sort of talked about them and we're going to be talking about them a lot this season if you follow us. Like they had the most historically unlucky season in the history of the Premier League in terms of not even just missing chances. And you can make the argument, oh, they aren't clinical in front of goal. They don't have strikers who are good finishers. And that's a fair point. And there are reasons to expect them to run even or slightly behind their XG. But there was a huge gap that, you know, a level of finishing that we have never seen. They had two players in Leandro Trossard and Neil Malpeh who were kind of their main shot getters who really underperformed. But even their secondary attacking players who were midfielders were getting shots, 47 shots, no goals from from from some of their midfielders. You know, it's kind of crazy and it's kind of unsustainable. And really, the other thing is defensively, too. So opponents were really good at shooting against them for some unlucky reason. When you went to go play Brighton, your team was going to shoot really well that day. And that's just they ran into that a lot. They lost a ridiculous number of one goal games. They had a lot of late goals. They conceded for draws. I mean, they were sixth best in XG last year. They were eighth best at one point, I think, in my power ratings. So they're a really good team that you can get at plus 190 at BetMGM. I saw to finish inside the top 10, which I think is my favorite bet that I've placed across all of Europe so far this season. I think Brighton's going to have a really good year.”
Brighton finished in the 2021-22 Premier League top ten (Premier League).
“I don't think so. I actually took some Turkey plus one in the first”
Italy 3, Turkey 0 — UEFA's EURO 2020 results record Italy beating Turkey 3-0, so Turkey failed to cover +1.
“I took some Switzerland plus 475 to come in and win the group.”
UEFA's EURO 2020 results record Italy winning Group A, not Switzerland.
“And so I think there's some real potential for the Austrians. I took them to finish second. Minus 110 or better is good for me there. I think they're much better than Ukraine, which BJ, I think, has more on than I do.”
UEFA's EURO 2020 group results record Austria finishing second in Group C.
“But Ukraine is not very good defensively so concerned about them And so that my play And then I like Memphis Depay Golden boot The thing about the golden boot is that you can tend to get by with a good group stage That's how Harry Kane won it in 2018 at the World Cup. Griezmann really did well in the knockouts. But for the most part, if you get four games, three games in the group stage against North Macedonia, Ukraine, and Austria, and then you get one good game in the knockouts, and you might have enough goals to do it. And Depay is coming off his best season. He's a 27 years old. He just bagged 20 goals and 12 assists in the French league. So I'm really high on Depay. I got him at 15 to one. I believe there's some 14 to ones out there. I like that too. The entire attack runs through him. So there's a lot of reason to like him for this Dutch team”
UEFA records Cristiano Ronaldo as the EURO 2020 Golden Boot winner, not Memphis Depay.
“I really like the Swedes. I'm rolling with them. Top two, minus 105. I love that bet. I think they're much better than Poland. I think they're probably not going to beat Spain, but I'm not really sure what to expect from Spain. I don't like backing teams where I can't look at the roster and then reasonably say I know what the manager is going to play as like a reasonable, at least nine of the 10 guys of the 11. Like I can be like, oh yeah, like that's going to be their team. And Spain and Germany are the two teams for me that like, I don't know what the managers are going to do. You can generally put it together. I know BJ loves Alvaro Morata.”
UEFA's EURO 2020 group results record Sweden advancing from Group E.
“I took some plus 660 that Germany will not get out of the group stage.”
UEFA's EURO 2020 results record Germany advancing from Group F, so the 'not to advance' selection lost.