Kyle Murray

“[19:52] it's a really strong form for the reburance in here so to get him at plus 195 for a top 20 finish [19:57] he grades out right around that 20th mark in my model this week”

Michael Thorbjornsen finished outside the top-twenty cutoff. (Michael Thorbjornsen: T47, 282)

“Let's start with Sam Burns, though,”

Sam Burns did not win the tournament; Scottie Scheffler did. (Sam Burns: T3, 272; Scottie Scheffler: 1st, 263)

“[20:45] for Thor Bjornsson here. We have a four-pack of outright winners here. We're going to start [20:49] with Sam Burns at 22-1, Cam Young 25-1, Hideki Matsuyama 29-1, and Siwoo Kim, that name that [20:56] we dropped at the top, a familiar name here on the pod, 35-1. Let's start with Sam Burns, though,”

Hideki Matsuyama did not win the tournament; Scottie Scheffler did. (Hideki Matsuyama: T7, 274; Scottie Scheffler: 1st, 263)

“[26:07] Yeah, I'll definitely do some sprinkling here. [26:09] I think the primary placement bet that I show value on the most for sober is top 20, right around plus 340, plus 350. [26:18] He's a guy who I like quite a bit. [26:21] I'm actually seeing a plus 380 out there now. [26:23] So that's a number that I certainly like a good deal.”

Suber finished T50 at -4, outside the top 20, so the placement bet lost. (Suber T50 (-4); target top 20)

“[28:35] someone i like quite a bit in the top 20 mark this week the second one on your card as i mentioned [28:39] zach blair he's playing on conditional status and splitting his time between the tours in seven pga”

Blair finished T50 at -4, outside the top 20, so the placement bet lost. (Blair T50 (-4); target top 20)

“[37:46] So for me, again, I think that Wyndham Clark, even though it's a fairly short number, 22 to 1, like you mentioned, [37:53] I think he should be up in this 15 to 16 to 1 range. [37:56] Maybe even like if I was making the market, he'd probably have a shorter number. [38:01] I think from a market perspective, people are just a little bit too low on him. [38:04] I think the miscut at the open and last year at this event are holding this number back a little bit. [38:09] So that's baking in some value there.”

Thorbjornsen won at -18 while Clark missed the cut at +5, so Clark's outright lost. (Thorbjornsen 1st (-18); Clark CUT (+5))

“[40:08] All right, let's close with your second play, 86-1 Ben Coles to win outright.”

Thorbjornsen won at -18 while Kohles finished T26 at -9, so Kohles's outright lost. (Thorbjornsen 1st (-18); Ben Kohles T26 (-9))

“[41:57] He is someone that I would probably prefer. [41:59] If you're just placing one bet on Ben Coles, top 20 is probably going to be the bet for me.”

Kohles finished T26 at -9, outside the top 20, so the placement bet lost. (Ben Kohles T26 (-9); target top 20)

“[30:12] will say i think that i probably feel better chasing a little bit more upside with john romm [30:17] but i just i do think that this minus 115 number is just living a little bit too much value on the [30:23] board i think you know you mentioned laying a little bit of juice but some books are offering [30:27] this one closer to minus 140. I see a minus 139 out there right now. And when my model matches, [30:35] even maybe a little bit shorter than that, I think it's minus 115 just offers a little bit [30:39] too much value. I typically don't really bring top 20 or any sort of placement wagers that are [30:45] right around even money to the table. But I do think that there is some value on that just [30:49] from a market perspective. But to your point about Jon Rahm, like you mentioned, some of the [30:54] the 2026 form, obviously missing the cut at the US Open. [30:57] That was probably the closest comp to maybe what we could see at a link style course here. [31:02] But I am willing to say that, you know, other than that, you had the T2 at the PGA Championship [31:07] had some good finishes on Liv, which again, we've talked about a couple of times on the show. [31:11] That's difficult to really take for, you know, kind of take it with a grain of salt, [31:15] which I totally agree with. [31:17] But I do think that from what we get out of Jon Rahm from a profile perspective, [31:22] He's a pretty strong fit for this sort of course. [31:25] He's done well on the DP World Tour in years prior. [31:29] So when you talk about the off the tee fit, where he's able to sort of spray it a little [31:33] bit. [31:34] So far this season, what we've actually seen from him in terms of measured rounds and distance, [31:39] he leads my model in terms of driving distance in most drives over 320 yards. [31:45] Accuracy can fall off the cliff at times. [31:47] He's right around the 70th best player in terms of accuracy in this field. [31:51] But again, we've talked about that that's not necessarily something that might hurt him too much here. [31:56] Also, he's played well in the wind in years prior. [31:59] So those sorts of things, as well as just the market value at this number at minus 115, has me on the ROM play.”

PGA TOUR's Scottish Open leaderboard does not place Jon Rahm in the top 20, confirming the top-20 wager lost. (Jon Rahm outside top 20)

“you get an enhanced price Kyle let talk Tyrell Haddon at 33 to 1 because he been absolutely outstanding at this exact venue dating all the way back to when the scottish open was solely a dp tour events he never finished worse than in a tie for 24th at the renaissance club that's about as consistent as you would want to find for a player yet he's outside of the top 30 or in terms of 30 to 1 he's north of that in terms of his pricing in the outright market. Is there an element of, okay, I really like him for top 20, maybe not an outright, like talk me through that jump from he'll be in the mix to I can't pass this up because hitting a 33 to one at this point in the season can really change my overall, you know, balance sheet, so to speak. Yeah. I mean, Hatton is a guy who I, my model always likes Hatton and typically some of I'm betting top 20, top 10 at a lot of these majors. And this week, I think you can definitely do the same and feel pretty good about it. I will also be betting him top 20 and top 10 as well as the outright.”

PGA TOUR lists Tom Kim as the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open winner, so Tyrrell Hatton did not win outright. (Tom Kim, winner)

“But I think that all kind of comes together into allowing us to have some value here on Siwoo Kim over Cantlay. Minus 125 is where the number is.”

Siwoo Kim withdrew during round 2 of the 2026 Travelers Championship with a back injury; Patrick Cantlay finished T14 (-14), completing the tournament and winning the matchup. (Kim WD R2 (8-over thru 12); Cantlay T14 -14)

“So again, those are things that when you come to look at the entire profile of Aaron Ryan, say, OK, this is where his main weakness is typically. But there are significant reasons to assume maybe he has a spike week there. Maybe this is a potential even strength here. He's someone that grades out tremendously for me. He's top 10 in ceiling metric He third in form I already mentioned the top three rankings and approach and off the t fit for this course So all these things put together He my favorite outright play of the week 55 to one is a little bit of a long shot I mean when you consider all the names you dodging”

Viktor Hovland won the 2026 Travelers Championship; Aaron Rai did not win. (Hovland won -21 in playoff over Scheffler)

“to make the cut. All right, Kyle, you have a pair of placement wagers. Tommy Fleetwood, top 10 at nearly two to one. You're feeling confident about a golfer who has sprinted through the finish line on this very course because Fleetwood's last round in 2018 at Chinnecock, he shot a blistering 63, nearly caught Brooks Koepka, finished his second. And there's a mountain of strokes gained data that seems to favor him and make him a real fit for this course. But the bare argument on him has been the U.S. Open since that 2018 final round. In the seven championships from 2019 through 2025, he tallied three missed cuts and only two top 20s. So what drew you to him at plus 196? Is it more the underlying metrics and what's under the hood for him statistically? Or do you believe that he really is a good fit for this course? Yeah, I do think he's a good fit for the course.”

Tommy Fleetwood T11 — The USGA's final results list Fleetwood just outside the top ten. (Finish position: T11)

“let's run through your card. Fleetwood, 22 to one.”

Wyndham Clark won — USGA's official final report identifies Clark as champion, so Fleetwood did not win. (Winning score: 276 (-4))

“Two wins on Young's resume this season at the Players' Championship and the Cadillac. He finished in the top 10 six times over the last 10 appearances. And his strokes gained off the tee ranks 10th on tour. And I mentioned it at the top. I was waiting for a golfer to land in that bucket of they can really avoid bogeys. He ranks sixth on tour this season. How much did that last element factor into your play here Yeah absolutely I mean there just a lot to like about the profile for Cam Young I think actually the one thing that he doesn grade out all that great in is the play in the win So I think Fleetwood and Cam Young here at the same number, 22 to one, I think it's actually a nice way of offsetting potential volatility in the forecast there. I mean, Cam Young, when I'm looking at my model here, he grades out as the third best scoring fit, which is basically different yardages within these difficult holes on this course, which I think is very important because a lot of par 4s here that are very difficult. Also, a lot of par 3s that come in different yardage buckets, but have difficulties for varying reasons. So I think that was one of my favorite parts about the way that Cam Young projects here, but he also projects for the second highest ceiling grade here behind, obviously, Scottie Shuffler. So that came down to, you know, those are the main reasons why I ended up backing Cam Young there.”

Wyndham Clark won — USGA's official final report identifies Clark as champion, so Young did not win. (Winning score: 276 (-4))

“Kyle Murray, Tommy Fleetwood, top 10, plus 196 over on DraftKings.”

Tommy Fleetwood finished T11 at +2 at the 2026 U.S. Open, just outside the top 10 (ESPN). (Fleetwood T11 (+2))

“Yeah, I think for me this week, the head-to-head market was pretty tough. I didn't have a ton of bets that I really liked. For me, I was looking for guys who could sort of toe that line that I mentioned before, that risk-reward line, especially with off the tee play. Right now, I'm seeing Goddard up around minus 111, minus 115. I probably wouldn't go any further than minus 125 here against English. English isn't necessarily my favorite target, but from a price perspective here at 111, I was waiting between either picking on English with Goddard up or Ricky Fowler. I think the the Goddard number against Fowler was minus 108. So I felt a little bit better about picking on English than Fowler,”

Harris English shot 71 to Chris Gotterup's 72 in Round 1 and finished well ahead overall (T17 -3 vs T27 even) at the Memorial Tournament. (English 71 R1 (T17 -3 final) vs Gotterup 72 R1 (T27 E final))

“But for an official pick for a top 20, Kitayama, [27:06] it was just grading out as a better top 20 play rather than an outright play”

Kurt Kitayama finished T22 (-1) at the 2026 Memorial Tournament, outside the top 20.

“That being said, why should you play him to win outright as opposed to getting his seventh top six, top 10 of the year and cashing those? So why is now the right time to pounce? Is it just the price sensitivity with him still in? As Spencer just laid out, if he had some better numbers on some more difficult courses, he'd probably be in the teens. But instead, we get him at 22, 23, 25 to 1 in this spot to win the tournament outright. So why is this the right time to pull the trigger on Siwukim Yeah I mean to answer the first part of your question in terms of also betting his top 10 top 20 typically I mean I talked about this on the show before typically when I bet someone outright you know and you looking especially at a guy who Siwu 22 23 to one the best numbers out there right now, I'll also usually, probably 90% of the time, bet either a top 10 or a top 20 or both with those players. So I will also be doing that with Si Woo Kim here, but I think there's just a lot to like about his game.”

J.T. Poston won the 2026 Memorial Tournament; Si Woo Kim did not win.

“longer shot markets. So outright play, like you mentioned, right around 60 to one is where I have Adam Scott as a pretty solid value.”

J.T. Poston won the 2026 Memorial Tournament; Adam Scott did not win.

“that was sticking out to me either. I think for me on, and I have a feeling that you might have the same kind of perspective on this sort of event, just based on the names, the amount of names that we'll get to when you're outrights play. But I think when you have the weaker field, you know no scott no rory those kinds of guys it opens up everything and for me that i think instills some extra value but i do have one play that i like for the placement wagers it's christian bezadenhoy at i i like him at the in the top 40 and top 20 markets top 40 i saw at plus 102 uh but top 20 is plus 275 so i like both of those”

Christiaan Bezuidenhout finished T32 at the Charles Schwab Challenge, outside the top 20.

“Alex Smalley here. I see him out there right now at 37 38 to 1 um I like small quite a bit this week he grades out as one of the better values for me in the outright market I have him as the fifth best fit for this course um and you know I will say like the again back to the conversation with no Scotty no Rory the grouping of my overall score is still pretty wide here this week because I do have Ludwig grading out significantly better than everybody else in this field But I do think that despite that, I do think that he's not quite the Rory, the Scotty, in terms of asserting his dominance in terms of the win equity in my model right now. So I think there's a handful of guys here in this 25 to 50 to 1 range that I like quite a bit. There are some longer shots that maybe I'll throw out there as well at the end. But for the most part, Smalley, he checks these boxes.”

Russell Henley won the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge in a playoff over Eric Cole; Alex Smalley finished T3.

“I think that's what's maybe holding him back in my model a little bit I think you could even compete with some of these other guys in the top five But nonetheless course history is the only real negative grade that he has for me right now In my model of all the things that i'm grading this week I like smallie and the next name that i'll throw out there is ricky faller Has some strong course history some strong recent form coming into this one as well We've seen him play pretty well in some of these bigger tournaments and you know back to when Rickie Fowler kind of made that resurgence it's kind of fits that same pattern not to say that that's why i'm betting Rickie Fowler here but you know back when he won the rocket he was kind of hanging around for all these big events he hung around there at the u.s open it was kind of you know doing his thing in there to stay in contention and then he got that weaker field and he went he went out there in detroit and won so i think there's a lot of you know things to like about Rickie Fowler's game and weight shaking out right now but he grades out pretty well in the ceiling metric for me this week even though that might not be like the I guess idea that maybe Rickie Fowler instills in people but Rickie Fowler is the second name for me so those are my outright plays for the week I see you have what five of them for this week Do you want to go maybe rapid on them and then circle back to some names and maybe why you like them”

Russell Henley won the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge; Rickie Fowler missed the cut (143).

“Let's go from that price point, get a little spicier here. JJ Spahn, top 20 at plus 270. Kyle, Spahn's cold starts of the year is a distant memory because he started with four missed cuts in his first seven starts. He's turned that around. He wins at the Valero Texas Open 14th at the Cadillac fifth at the Truist So he really pulled out of that early season nosedive and beyond that turnaround Is there something else in his game that gives you confidence that he can land in the top 20 on Sunday Yeah I mean Spawn has been a guy who I probably been documented on this show talking about some of the question marks that you mentioned prior to the Valero And we saw a lot of, you know, uneasy, I guess, finishes and data that he's putting on on resume.”

JJ Spaun missed the cut at the 2026 PGA Championship, so the top-20 bet lost.

“indicator for this bet for me was just a market indicator seven to one uh compared to right around four and a half to one on some other books and that is with including ties on the book that i bet sullivan on that is not the case but nonetheless i do think that you know it's still a spot where the market sort of pointed me to him here i think there's some some value there for the for the top 40 in this spot”

Andy Sullivan missed the cut at the 2026 PGA Championship, so the top-40 bet lost.

“think there is a good amount of upside. I still, again, would prefer a top 20 or maybe even looking at some matchup markets more with him. He's certainly one of my favorite golfers to back. But I do think at 60 to one, I think there's definitely enough juice there at that number to back Ty Hatton this week. He grades out his fifth in my model this week. So I will take him outright and likely in several other markets this week.”

Tyrrell Hatton missed the cut at the 2026 PGA Championship (won by Aaron Rai), so the outright lost.

“Kyle is going with Siwoo Kim at 66 to 1”

Si Woo Kim finished T35 at the 2026 PGA Championship (won by Aaron Rai), so the outright lost.

“yeah i'll take homa here in that matchup”

Alex Fitzpatrick finished 4th (-12) and Max Homa T52 (+1) at the Truist Championship, so Homa lost the matchup.

“I think obviously Fitzpatrick and Ludwig are going to be my top two vets on the outright market this week”

Matt Fitzpatrick did not win the 2026 Truist Championship; Kristoffer Reitan won by edging Rickie Fowler.

“so for this week, Ludwig outright, I'll also be pairing that with a top 10, same way with Fitzpatrick.”

Kristoffer Reitan won the 2026 Truist Championship at Quail Hollow (-15); Ludvig Aberg finished well back at -10, so the outright lost.

“hot after that so I'll take Morikawa over Fleetwood here you know right around minus 115”

Tommy Fleetwood finished T23 (-6) and Collin Morikawa finished T62 (+1), so Morikawa lost the matchup.

“I would back him over Berger as well. All right, let's get into your placement wager here, Kyle. You like Keith Mitchell, top 20 at north of two to one. This is the push and pull of recent form versus course fit. He's only hit three top 20s in his last 10 appearances, but he does rank six on tour in strokes gained off the tee this season with a driving distance in excess of 311 yards, which is 28th on tour. He also has played a ton of golf in the state of Florida. If you look at his scoring average going back to 2023, it's sub 71. He's one of only 12 players in this field that cracks that threshold with a meaningful sample size of 42 rounds in the state. Any of these things outweigh the other, or does it just come down to price with him being, as I mentioned, north of two to one at plus 210? Yeah, it's certainly a price factor”

Keith Mitchell finished T55 at the Cadillac Championship, outside the top 20.

“And you can get yourself to Sunday with somebody in that 7 to 1 range That great They still going to have to climb to the top of the mountain with all of these other aces kind of gunning for them So let talk about Adam Scott and Jake Knapp Scott at 43 to 1 Knapp at 30 to 1 Scott up first You know not only did he win here the last time he was played at Doral in 2016 but he consistently overperformed on this course He finished 6th 13th 3rd and 4th in the five years leading up And then of course with that win So he has mastered this track and that has to count for something And then when you look at Knapp, he ranks fourth in the field in driving distance and 10th in strokes gained off the tee. So his pure power aligns with the distance of this course. He's also rattled off multiple top 10 finishes across a wide range of courses with varying field difficulty vying against him. And on top of that, just another cherry is his strong performance at the Masters where he finished 11th against an elite field, kind of challenging him all the way through Sunday. So let's start with Scott first, because I think, you know, given his advanced age and, you know, the fact that he's being priced in this 40s, you know, I think it always bears mentioning you should shop around. Maybe you can get slightly better, closer to a 50 to one ticket here. Price versus how he's performed on this course. And can you really put that much stock in performance that's over a decade old in some cases? So now that I've teed you up there, let's start with Scott. Yeah, I mean, quick disclaimer before I get into the two plays and especially Adam Scott, but I actually went into the into the sheet and Spencer beat me in there and he had Morikawa and Cameron Young in there. And I plan to bring at least one of those because right now the two top values on the board for me are Morikawa and then Cameron Young, both right out as number two and number three, Cam Young being two, Morikawa being three in my model. So I can certainly at least back those plays as well. But again, I figured it would make a little bit more of entertainment sense. And obviously, these are two guys I like as well. But for Adam Scott, specifically on your point on factoring in the data from Dural, I essentially wiped all of it. I didn't really consider much of it at all. Instead, I just went and found seven or eight comp courses that I thought were most correlated to this course here at Dural. So that was the main justification there. And Adam Scott also happened to grade out pretty well on those courses. And I think maybe it's just more of a cherry on top that he's performed well here in the past. But again, I think, you know, like I talked about earlier, there's never going to be a week where I go in and factor in data from a course 10 years ago. So I not going to do it now just because that was the last time we saw it I am taking some certain field stats from Doral over that time frame but not really factoring in much of individual scoring from those events just because I just don't think that they're all that valuable right now with them being a decade old, like you mentioned. I will say, quick shout out, that was nice of you to say advanced age for Adam Scott. If he's listening to the podcast, I'm sure he will appreciate that. I'm 40 years old myself now, so I'm in the club. Yeah, I think he'll send you a nice thank you card for that. But he does just write out pretty well across the board. I think, you know, for me, like I mentioned, kind of piggybacking off what Spencer was talking about on the course layout. Coming into this week, I had the thought of, you know, it does feel like the public and the markets are going to be really leaning into this bombers effect. And, you know, while I didn't necessarily model that out enough, probably in my model, I came into understanding that I would look for somebody who could potentially fit the mold if the course wasn't as dependent on driving distance. And I think Adam Scott fits that to you. I mean, he's certainly not going to be the shortest in the field, but the way he grades out T to green, especially in the approach play, especially in these specific buckets, essentially just pops him up towards the top of my model. He's a top five player in the field for me this week for this course. So I'd like to back him as an outright this week as well.”

Adam Scott did not win the 2026 Cadillac Championship; Cameron Young won by six.

“Now Kyle for the head that you have circled you have Fleetwood over Oiberg in this one Fleetwood finished seventh last year in the same tournament. You can argue that the tee to green, from a strokes game perspective, is the most predictive stat over any other on this course. And he's fifth in the PGA right now. Great form as well, as of late. So anything else that I'm missing here? Or is there something you'd like to talk about in terms of price sensitivity? Yeah, I mean, I do certainly like the price here. Minus 118 in the market. I make this one closer to minus 130.”

Tommy Fleetwood finished T52 at -5 (279); Ludvig Åberg finished T4 at -13 (271) — Åberg won the matchup, so Fleetwood's moneyline lost. (Fleetwood -5 (T52) vs Åberg -13 (T4))

“Now, Kyle, you're coming to the table with not one but two top 20 options. Seb Sraka and Sudarshan Yelamiraju. You know, five top 20 finishes for Sudarshan, and notably a top five at the Players' Championship, a TPC Sawgrass, another Pete Dye course, just something to keep in mind in terms of the design and the form that he's playing in on those tracks. Also, if you care deeply about approach play, Seb is your man here. He led the field in that category last year while placing 13th. If you had to choose between these two, obviously you're making them both official on the show. Which one are you leaning to? Yeah, I think if I had to choose between the two, I would lean Seppi as one of my favorite placement wagers of the week. I do also like him a little bit in the outright market as well, but I think there's just a few other guys who I like at their price who carry a little bit more win equity So top 20 for Straka here”

Sepp Straka finished T42 at the 2026 RBC Heritage, outside the top 20.

“for Sudarshan. Gotta give a shout out to our guy, Chris Jemina, who runs a lot of the projections over at Roto Grinders. Gave a great name. I don't know if he stole this one from social media or not, but Sudar McGavin, that was a great nickname. So that's part of the reason why I had to at least mention that one. But love his profile here. Obviously, one of the better approach players in the field. Limited sample size, but he's a guy who I've mentioned on the show before. Had him at a top 20 at the Houston Open, I believe, that came through. So I look and continue to back someone who has a very small sample, but I think that also leads to these longer odds at 3-1 for Sudarshan. So he's someone that I like as well. Again, maybe a bit too thin of an option for the outright market. Don't mind throwing a dollar or two on that for a little bit of a fun sweat for a long shot. But nonetheless, the approach profile looks fantastic. I do think the one worry that I have for him is his around the green fit. His around the green numbers have left some to be desired. but I do think that he's someone who can make up for that with a strong putter and with a strong approach play so I like him for a top 20 as well”

Sudarshan Yellamaraju finished T52 at the 2026 RBC Heritage, outside the top 20.

“All right, a two-pack of golfers for you, Kyle. You've got Siwoo Kim and Daniel Berger. Talking about Kim he led after 54 holes of this very same tournament last year before the final rounds Obviously he ends in that four tie before Thomas wins it And then Berger I think this one maybe is flying under the radar because he has the second best scoring average at Harbortown from the 2020 season through 2025. Over those 16 rounds that he's competed, sub 68 in terms of his average there, which is better than a lot of the top names on the board, like Fix Patrick and Xander in this one. I think that's a massive data point. I think that's one that deserves you to comment on it first and then get into some of the price sensitivity and where maybe you set aside a top 10 or a top 20 and go for the gusto with an outright win. Yeah, I certainly like some other placement bets here for Berger. I think for Siwoo Kim, Spencer mentioned the top end volatility of some guys in looking for those profiles when backing outright players. just because if you're going to bet on a guy like Siwoo Kim, you've got to understand that it's not always going to be rainbows and sunshine. It can be pretty downhill at times, but this is a spot that he fits really well. Obviously, he's a guy who gets the Pete Dye kind of label on him. He's performed well at Pete Dye courses throughout the entirety of his career, and a lot of what the model's spitting out backs at, as he's one of the better fits from a ball striking perspective for this course based on yardages, approach buckets, grains and regulation, proximity stuff, all the important off the tee and approach data. There's only one player in the field that grades out better than him in those marks, and it's Colin Morikawa. So when you're talking about those two categories, that's a pretty good one-two punch to be a part of. So for Sewell Kim, about 28 to one, 29 to one, depending on where you're shopping. I definitely think that there's some upside there in the out-right market.”

Si Woo Kim finished 3rd at the 2026 RBC Heritage; Matt Fitzpatrick won outright.

“But Daniel Berger, a top 20 play, he grades out as one of the better top 20 values as well. But I figured I would touch on that while I talk about his outright. Right around 100-1, 96-1 here on DraftKings is coming off of a miscut at the Masters. But this up-and-down play is kind of what we've been accustomed to with Berger at times. Obviously, he's just a few weeks removed from that second-place finish at the API. And it hasn't necessarily been overly consistent in between then. But like you mentioned some good course history here as well T3 at Harbortown last season So to your point the strokes gain stuff at Harbortown specifically is really what has him popping in this model But I think from a course fit perspective similar to what I was talking about with Sepp Straka he someone who I think his profile just elevates here at a spot where he can potentially put himself in even better opportunities off the tee and see not only his approach play improve in a course like this, but also his off the tee play. So he's someone that I do like. He has one of the higher good drive percentages over his last 24 rounds in this field. He's in the top 10 in that category, which I think is going to be an important off the tee stat this week. And obviously we know he can get it done from the approach perspective as well. So he's someone that I certainly have a lot of interest in. When you look at kind of a rolling window over his approach stats, over the last year he's seventh in approach in this field. Over the last 24 rounds he's sixth. Over the last 12 rounds he's seventh. So the approach play has been dominant, and I think that it could be even potentially a little bit better at a course like this. So he's someone that I certainly do like at that number here this week.”

Daniel Berger finished T42 at the 2026 RBC Heritage; Matt Fitzpatrick won.

“Let's stick with you here, Kyle. Nikolai Hoigard in the first round, a three ball versus Zach Johnson and Kim. He can bomb it. He's ninth on tour at nearly 318 yards per drive and 12th in approach, a tantalizing combo here at Augusta National. Even deeper, he's 19th in bogey avoidance and 13th in scrambling. So there's not much on his statistical resume that isn't a plus. Outside of that, the demands of this course, I just feel like he's a really good fit. Talk to me a bit about Johnson and Kim and why you think he's going to elevate above them. Yeah, I do. I mean, I typically like these three ball situations because I tend to feel like you just get some more inherent value with having to compete against two players. And I think that when you can sort of isolate specific three balls where, you know, there are typically going to be upsets or outliers. But Zach Johnson doesn't really profile as somebody who, and I don't want to get too aggressive with my wording here because it's golf. anything can happen but he doesn't really profile someone that really stands a chance in this particular matchup here and i think michael kim pretty similar as well obviously he did have a top 30 here last year but i think hoygaard is just uh significantly more talented uh than both of these guys in this spot and i think he fits this course excellently so to get this one at plus money in the three ball market is always nice uh obviously backed him a couple weeks ago at the texas open thought he had a had a chance down the stretch there obviously gary woodland ran away with it but with regard to someone that i'm gonna be backing pretty heavily uh this week and in the three ball market i think there's some really strong value to get him here at plus money against these two”

Round 1 three-ball: Nicolai Hojgaard shot 76, while both Zach Johnson (75) and Michael Kim (75) shot lower — Hojgaard did not have the low score of the group. (Hojgaard 76, Z. Johnson 75, Kim 75 (Round 1))

“home obviously been a little bit of a in a rocky spot in his career right now but i do like the ortiz three ball market there uh plus 120 in the market but for the top 20 at plus 500 this is grading out as one of the better values for me actually the best top 20 value”

Carlos Ortiz missed the cut at the 2026 Masters, so a top-20 finish did not cash.

“but i do like the [40:31] ortiz three ball market there uh plus 120 in the market”

Round 1 three-ball: Carlos Ortiz shot 8-over 80, while Max Homa shot even-par 72 — Homa had the low score, not Ortiz. (Ortiz 80 vs Homa 72 (Round 1))

“But when simulating the event, he actually had the fourth highest win rate. So he's someone that can pop from an outright perspective because of the way he can spike and have these spike weeks. So he's someone that I'm targeting in the outright market. And I think this 23 to one number is one that is a little bit softer because of how aggressive we're looking at guys like Scheffler, Rahm, Rory, and all rightfully so. Obviously, these are all elite players and guys who are going to take up a lot of the likely win equity. But I think Cameron Young deserves a little bit more respect than 23 to one. I think he should be at least in the high teens, 18, 19 to one. So I think that there's just some inherent value there on 23 to one for Cam Young.”

Cameron Young finished T3 at the 2026 Masters; Rory McIlroy won outright.

“Fantastic. That right there, our plant the flag on the Masters out at Augusta, presented by DraftKings. A recap for you. Kendra is on Xander Shoffley, plus 305, top five finisher. Stucky is on Siwoo Kim 49 to 1 outright. I'm on Akshay Bhatia 57 to 1 outright winner and Kyle Murray Cam Young outright 23 to 1. And then Patrick Reed that was top 10 finish. Yep top 10.”

Rory McIlroy won the 2026 Masters at -12 (276); Cameron Young finished T3 at -10 (278), so the outright-winner futures bet lost.

“I like Patrick Reed for a top 10 as well.”

Patrick Reed finished T12 at -5 (283) at the 2026 Masters, outside the top 10, so the top-10-finish bet lost.

“From two golfers that are struggling to the very top of the board, you are circling a matchup between two top five guys from an outright perspective here and a head-to-head Kyle going with Russell Henley over McIntyre, who you mentioned, the reason why you think it's the right time to fade him. He's maybe a bit overvalued in the market, but talk to me specifically about Henley and what do you like? Yeah, I will say it's always frustrating to bet these sorts of matchups when you're facing a guy who is so live or die with the putter because then you look at it look up and he's through nine or ten holes and it's like 120 feet made made of putts and then you're just you know tilting your face off but in terms of the baseline here between these two guys it's a pretty substantial difference here i have russell henley as the second best player this week in this field in terms of the way he grades out at this course and i have robert mcintyre and admittedly I am probably lower on him than most people who are modeling or obviously the books making numbers here for McIntyre, who I have as the 18th best player in this field. So I'm certainly willing to stand on that hill here with this matchup. But I think Russell Henley provides a nice floor here as well. Obviously, we've talked about him throughout the past few weeks as well and his complete game sort of top to bottom. He's been very consistent all season long, especially early on so far in 2026. So Russell Henley is someone who I'm more than happy to back, especially in these head-to-head markets. And unfortunately, like I said, I like Bobby McIntyre, but he's someone that I'm looking to fade here. So I'm going to take Henley in the matchup market here.”

Russell Henley missed the cut while Robert MacIntyre finished T2 (-16), so Henley lost the head-to-head.

“all right kyle let me tee you up for your two winners this week you like tommy fleawood at 16 to 1 he's been knocking on the door basically this whole season tied for fourth at pebble tied for seventh of the genesis tied for eighth of the players in his last start. He's also elite in wins, which we can't bang the drum hard enough this week in San Antonio and the impact there. But then you're calling your shot here, 64 to one on Sadarshan Yellamiraju. Nailed it. He's a bit of a unicorn. I'm not just talking about the name here. He's the only golfer in the field who ranks top 10 simultaneously in both driving distance and stroked gain on approach. 64 to one has my full attention. Why don't we start with Sadarshan Yeah, I mean, kind of similar to Jordan Smith, right? Kind of, you could say buying high here, but at 64 to one and a field that, like we mentioned, still does have some solid stars here, but we're not seeing the full Rolodex of PGA Tour players here. 64 to one for this sort of event does sort of catch my eye here for some value. You mentioned some of the finishes that he's had as of late. I do think that could potentially lead to some noise in terms of the strokes gained around, you know, around, I guess across the board. But for me, when trying to reduce some of that noise and stretch out in terms of stuff that we can actually pull from, he grades out as a top 10 player in this field for me. So at 64 to one, I'll take a stab there. And then you mentioned Tommy Fleetwood. Yeah, the wind is a huge factor for Fleetwood. I think the windier it gets, the better of a bet he becomes. Obviously, betting on him as the favorite here. I typically don't, I haven't found myself betting on the favorite in tournaments all that much this year. But Tommy Fleetwood grades out as the top player in my model. He's not too far ahead of Henley or Siwoo Kim here for me in the top three. But so all those guys do check some boxes. But for Fleetwood, we've talked about the ball striking. We've talked about the wind. He's second in around the green performance for me in my model this week. So I think in terms of all the important stuff that I'm looking at, he grades out exceedingly well, top 10 approach, number one in tee to green, number two in around the green, and number 10 in approach fit here, which is grading out hole by hole construct and also wind direction as well as wind conditions, depending on how windy we do see this course end up becoming. But yeah, for me, Fleetwood is checking so many boxes, so I'm happy to bet on him as his favorite this week.”

Tommy Fleetwood finished T10 (-11) at the Valero Texas Open; J.J. Spaun won the outright.

“all right kyle let me tee you up for your two winners this week you like tommy fleawood at 16 to 1 he's been knocking on the door basically this whole season tied for fourth at pebble tied for seventh of the genesis tied for eighth of the players in his last start. He's also elite in wins, which we can't bang the drum hard enough this week in San Antonio and the impact there. But then you're calling your shot here, 64 to one on Sadarshan Yellamiraju. Nailed it. He's a bit of a unicorn. I'm not just talking about the name here. He's the only golfer in the field who ranks top 10 simultaneously in both driving distance and stroked gain on approach. 64 to one has my full attention. Why don't we start with Sadarshan Yeah, I mean, kind of similar to Jordan Smith, right? Kind of, you could say buying high here, but at 64 to one and a field that, like we mentioned, still does have some solid stars here, but we're not seeing the full Rolodex of PGA Tour players here. 64 to one for this sort of event does sort of catch my eye here for some value. You mentioned some of the finishes that he's had as of late. I do think that could potentially lead to some noise in terms of the strokes gained around, you know, around, I guess across the board. But for me, when trying to reduce some of that noise and stretch out in terms of stuff that we can actually pull from, he grades out as a top 10 player in this field for me. So at 64 to one, I'll take a stab there.”

Sudarshan Yellamaraju finished T14 (-10) at the Valero Texas Open; J.J. Spaun won the outright.

“now DraftKings has the best numbers when it comes to betting golf and it also has just a multitude of markets and not just for the majors so we're going to close out with a DK special here they have a group c winner that they're calling it we got Ricky Fowler we got uh Spawn, Strocka, Mitchell, uh Michael Thjordbinson you can correct me on that one um in terms of their price walk me through who you like so give me the golfer give me the price and a reminder you just go to specials over on DK under their golf tab and you're going to be able to pick a golfer out of this five. So I'll kick it to you first, Kyle. Yeah, it's a, it's a pretty close group here. Obviously, DraftKings did a good job grouping some of these guys up together, but I do like Sepp Strzokka here at this plus 305 I think again you know we talked a bit over the course of the year like where Ricky Fowler can potentially you know look really solid And I think this week could be one that could be a chance to fade him here in this group particular where he's obviously the favorite. So that adds some value across the board. JJ Spahn's been pretty volatile. For me, it would be between Straka and Thorb Jornsson. Mitchell slightly behind those two guys. But for me, Straka gets a nice boost here. Again, another player that if the windier it gets, the better of a bet he becomes. For me, I have him as the best win player above his baseline in this field. Tom Flewley were there at second. So when you talk about those two guys in terms of the way that they improve in windy conditions compared to the field and compared to their baseline, that goes a long way for me here. So I like Strockett. That's a plus 305 number.”

Sepp Straka missed the cut (even par) at the Valero Texas Open and did not win DraftKings Group C.

“in my model for whatever that's worth. All right. From one top 20 paying out plus 170 to an even more lucrative one at three to one for Ryan Fox to finish within the top 20. Fox has been hot. He's banked four consecutive top 24 finishes in 2026 with his best being a top seven finish at the Genesis Invitational. What else do you like about him here, Kyle? Yeah, I'll start with the”

Ryan Fox missed the cut at the 2026 Houston Open, so no top-20 finish.

“And you'd like to also throw in Adam Scott, who ranks third in this field in shots gained from approach. Yeah, you mentioned it, a strong approach player here. Not necessarily the longest off the tee, but I don't think it's something that's going to necessarily hurt him either in this spot Second in my blended model in strokes gained tee to green So again just a guy who can get it done from the ball striking perspective And then the putting splits also a guy who does see a pretty slight uptick But again I do think that these particular splits are going to be tricky with the severity of the green conditions, whether it be them drying up or just the speeds in general. But Adam Scott, I think someone who has performed better in my model over those splits on the greens as well. So the tee to green play is going to be there for Scott. I like the way that he fits this course from a short game perspective as well. So I like Scott two to one plus 200 for a top 20. Let's get into our outrights here. You know,”

Adam Scott finished T21 (-8) at the 2026 Houston Open, just outside the top 20 (cutoff -10).

“Thor Bjornsson is the number one player in my scoring conditions model this week. So that's something I'm willing to back here for a guy who, again, I do think is going to win on tour sooner rather than later. His approach numbers don't look as good as I would have liked from these particular buckets. But nonetheless, the off the tee play looks solid. And his ability to go out there and have these spike ceiling weeks from a scoring perspective has me on this 30-1 for an outright winner here.”

Michael Thorbjornsen finished T20 (-10), not the outright winner; Gary Woodland won.

“Anything to add on Hoigar, at 27 to 1, what the cutoff price would be for you, Kyle? Yeah, for a cutoff price, I would say maybe 22, 23 to 1 for Hoigar there. He actually grades out as the best player in this model from a fit perspective for me. I think, you know, looking at the way that my model was built, it's built on about 11 or 12 key metrics or sometimes, you know, custom metrics. There's only two players that have positive grades across the board for every single metric. One is Adam Scott. Boyd Gard is the second one. So, you know, when you talk about a guy who can certainly get it done from a ceiling perspective with the ball striking and with the putting and with the around the green play, he's also someone that is a pretty steady player as well. So I do like him in other markets as well, but 27 to 1 for the outright was something that I was certainly seeing some value on. Spencer outlined quite a bit on Hoygaard as well. But for me, the main features that I was looking at, the strokes gain approach, top 10 player in this field. He's the third best fit for approach play in my model this week. He's 11th in terms of off the tee fit. And so for me, the way that he breaks down in terms of not only just the, I guess, baselines that he's putting out there, but for these ceiling performances, these spike-weak abilities, Toy Guard is certainly one of the better players. In my models, I'm looking to chase that outright win here at 27-1.”

Nicolai Hojgaard finished 2nd at the Houston Open, not the outright winner (Gary Woodland).

“When we look at the rest of your card here, I'm going to tip my hands and say my favorite bet that you have this week, Kyle, is a top 20 at nearly 5-1 on Aldrick, pot cheater, a high risk option who really tends to pop when he can just bomb it off the tee and use that to his advantage and certainly having an advantage over other golfers in the field. Plus 470, I'm interested. I'm going to fire on this one. Was there anything else beyond his driving acumen that really drew you to him here? Yeah, I mean, obviously the bomber aspect of it”

Aldrich Potgieter finished T21 (-8) at the Houston Open, outside the top 20 (cutoff -10/T14).

“for your other two in terms of uh top 20s you have tony finow three to one you got david lipsky at plus 650 for a top 20 i'll actually i'll switch up the format here a little bit between those two spencer who would you be interested in playing at those prices because obviously you know in terms of lipsky he almost got over the hump at the valspar but it seems at least in terms of this pricing that books are anticipating him falling back to earth i have positive value on both of those two numbers of where Kyle got them.”

Tony Finau finished T39 (-6) at the Houston Open, well outside the top 20.

“for your other two in terms of uh top 20s you have tony finow three to one you got david lipsky at plus 650 for a top 20 i'll actually i'll switch up the format here a little bit between those two spencer who would you be interested in playing at those prices because obviously you know in terms of lipsky he almost got over the hump at the valspar but it seems at least in terms of this pricing that books are anticipating him falling back to earth i have positive value on both of those two numbers of where Kyle got them.”

David Lipsky missed the cut at the Houston Open, so the top-20 prop lost.

“talking about Austin Smotherman over Thompson at minus 112.”

Davis Thompson made the cut (T46) while Austin Smotherman missed it, losing the head-to-head.

“you have Zach Blair in the first round in a three ball at plus 175.”

In the Round 1 three-ball, Tom Kim shot 69 to beat Zac Blair (71) and Erik van Rooyen (76).

“Meisner at plus 300 for the top 20.”

Mac Meissner missed the cut (148), outside any top-20 finish.

“And then obviously Viktor Hovland, plus 110, won here last season.”

Viktor Hovland missed the cut (145), failing to finish top 10.

“So I'll talk Smotherman first and I'll just pivot to my other option there. But Smotherman at 50 to one.”

Matt Fitzpatrick won the Valspar; Austin Smotherman missed the cut (150).

“So Viktor Hovland at 19 to one will be this secondary pick.”

Matt Fitzpatrick won the Valspar; Viktor Hovland missed the cut (145).

“Yeah, I like Rio in the outright market. [33:37] Thirty nine to one had a nice top 20 win on him last week. [33:40] So I'll back him once again.”

Matt Fitzpatrick won the Valspar; Ryo Hisatsune finished T30.

“I also like Sahith here at 36 to one. Good to see him rounding into some good form.”

Sahith Theegala missed the cut at the 2026 Valspar Championship, which Matt Fitzpatrick won at -11.

“I already talked to Zach Blair. He's 210 to one on the outright plus 650 for top 20.”

Zac Blair missed the cut at the 2026 Valspar Championship, so no top-20 finish.

“Lucas Glover is another guy who looks really strong in these approach buckets 150 to 200 and 200 plus. [34:23] He's 125 to 1 and plus 470 for a top 20.”

Lucas Glover missed the cut at the 2026 Valspar Championship, so no top-20 finish.

“And then finally, Kevin Roy, 110 to 1 on the outright plus 500 top 20.”

Kevin Roy finished T73 (+4) at the 2026 Valspar Championship, well outside the top 20 (cutoff -4).

“look at with Lowry and his consistency. And obviously, I do think that we are getting a A little bit of a discount due to an outlier week, in my opinion, last week. But also it is quite a bit of a fade here on Jordan Spieth in this matchup.”

Independent verification agrees: Shane Lowry missed the cut while Jordan Spieth finished T32 at THE PLAYERS 2026, so Lowry lost the head-to-head.

“Kyle, let's talk Patrick Cantlay, an elite player, at least from a mid-iron perspective. You look at him at top 20, plus 270 right now in the market, as always, go around and shop around for the best number there. What's your cutoff for him at a top 20? Is it five to two? Is it right where it is right now at plus 270? And what do you think the absolute ceiling is if everything clicks for him this week? Yeah, I'm not going to lie. I don't know the last time I bet on Patrick Cantlay here. But, you know, I do like him here. He grades out as a strong value on the top 20 market. In my model, plus 270, I think I would probably bet him down to about plus 230, plus 225 or so.”

Independent verification agrees: Patrick Cantlay finished T32 (-2) at THE PLAYERS 2026, missing the top 20.

“this week has me on Morikawa at 20 to one.”

Independent verification agrees: Collin Morikawa withdrew from THE PLAYERS 2026 and Cameron Young won, so the outright lost.

“is your number one player, Alex Noren, in that regard, because he is elite from a short game and scrambling perspective. And obviously, this course has small greens, they got runoffs, they got water. So if you're able to avoid those bogeys and double bogeys by being elite in that regard, 80 to 1, that's a number that's enticing for somebody who can get themselves out of trouble. Yeah, I do have Justin Thomas still at number one. Obviously, some limited samples come into play for JT, but when looking back over the course of the last year or so, So he's still number one in strokes getting around the green. Obviously, the rest of the game looks like a pretty significant mess right now. But Noren is still top 10 in strokes getting around the green. Have him 35th in this field in approach play skill rating. So obviously, when you're looking at a guy who is an 80 to 1 type long shot here, who grades out as a top 25 player fit for this course in my model, there's going to be some nice value there. So yeah, Noren at 80 to 1. Also, you know, like him in top 40, top 20 marks as well. But definitely want to highlight that 80 to 1 number.”

Independent verification agrees: Cameron Young won THE PLAYERS 2026; Alex Noren finished T32, so the outright lost.

“Another top 20, Mac Meissner, plus 550, 11-2 out there in the market. anything different in terms of his player profile as it relates to this course as to some of the other ones you've liked this week? Yeah, Mack Meiser and this A.J. Ewart make cut play at plus 118 both kind of just fall in line with guys who just simmed out well. They do have just some longer shots of like plus 118 to make a cut here in a very volatile event. You're not really going to get many plus money options for guys in the make cut profile. And he's someone who does great out well in terms of approach play, course fit, and off the tee fit stuff. So you were at plus 118 to make the cut. Mac Meissner here, he's someone I've been betting on pretty significantly, pretty much all season long, very strong approach players. with the ability to spike there, but he also fits very well for this court specifically and different yardage buckets and obviously proximity stuff. So I like Mac Meissner, top 20.”

Independent verification agrees: Mac Meissner missed the cut at THE PLAYERS 2026 and did not finish top 20.

“So I'll take Rickie Fowler here at plus 170 in the three-ball market.”

Independent verification agrees: In the Round 1 three-ball, Rickie Fowler shot 70 (E) versus Theegala 67 and Spieth 73, so Theegala won the group and Fowler's three-ball lost.

“But again, with putting such an emphasis on approach and accuracy, Hobbin's a guy who jumps off the page here. So at plus 360 over on draft, he's all looking for a top 10.”

Independent verification agrees: Viktor Hovland finished T13 (-5), outside the top 10.

“The two guys I'm looking at in the outright categories are Colin Morikawa and Russell Henley. Morikawa there at 27-1, obviously coming off of the win at the Genesis. And I've talked a lot about accuracy and the putting volatility. And people who have been following along so far on the show, the first person that might have come to their mind thinking of that kind of profile is Colin Morikawa. Obviously, we know that he can certainly go cold with the putter. He can certainly get hot as well as we saw at the Genesis. But in terms of his approach play and his off play he lines up exactly what I looking for in a player this week Obviously he going to be a guy who going to be able to hit a lot of fairways not necessarily be someone who going to find advantages with the distance off the tee So I think that actually fits his strategy here at Bay Hill. And then Strokes-Gain-Out Approach, we know that he's going to set himself up to find some birdie opportunities. Converting them can also be a tricky spot. But like I mentioned, I do think there's going to be a lot of low-scoring potential in this tournament. Last year, also Henley won this event at 11-under. So I don't think that this is going to necessarily be a spot where we're seeing a ton of putts fall. I think that also fits the bill for Colin Morikawa type week. And I do think that there's maybe a spot where people are a little bit off of him coming off of the win. We know that people like to kind of fade that sort of environment. But looking at him at 27 to 1, I do like him quite a bit here to win once again.”

Independent verification agrees: Collin Morikawa finished solo 5th; Akshay Bhatia won the tournament, so the Morikawa-to-win ticket lost.

“And then also Henley talked about him quite a bit in the matchup market there. But 35 to 1, I mean, this is, again, a spot where I think the market has just cooled off on him a bit too much. to be outside the top five in the outright market. I think it's just a bit of a mistake, a little bit of a pricing error there. So like I mentioned, he grades out as the second best golfer in this field for me and my model. Morikawa is there at fourth. So I like both these numbers. If you're just picking one of these guys, I would prefer Henley slightly just because I think there's a little bit more value at that 35 to one number. I like both these guys here this week at Bay Hill.”

Independent verification agrees: Russell Henley finished T6; Akshay Bhatia won, so the Henley-to-win ticket lost.

“And then looking at the guy who just had his heart broken once again on Sunday, Shane Lowry over Minmoo Lee. Minmoo Lee was another guy who graded out as a fade in my model. I mean, again, I've talked about accuracy being important here, approach play being important, and that's some spots where we've seen Minmoo Lee have spike weeks. But week over week, it's been a struggle for him, at least in terms of staying consistent in those categories. So I do like Shane Lowry, who's had a lot of success over here.”

Independent verification agrees: Min Woo Lee finished T6 (-10) and made the cut while Shane Lowry missed the cut (+3), so Lowry lost the head-to-head.

“Austin Svallerman in the top 20 is another play that I have at plus 360 as well.”

Independent verification agrees: Austin Eckroat missed the 36-hole cut at Bay Hill, so the top-20 bet lost.

“ultimately settled on a little bit more conservative play Drake Maye anytime touchdown plus 330 in the market”

Seahawks 29-13 Patriots — Official NFL gamebook confirms Maye did not score a touchdown. (Drake Maye touchdowns scored: 0)

“But my primary pick here is going to be Drake Maye, plus 230 or plus 240. I think this is also a little bit of a semi-hedge here. Obviously, not a perfect hedge, but obviously, I'm someone who's very high on Seattle in this game. Obviously, if the Patriots win, Drake Maye would be the favorite to win the Super Bowl MVP. So it's a slight hedge there as well. But obviously, it is fairly difficult to bet a non-quarterback in this market. You do need a really significant outlier game because of how biased the award really is for quarterback. but I'll take Drake Maye as my official pick here at plus 230.”

Kenneth Walker III won MVP — NFL reporting confirms Walker, not Maye, won Super Bowl MVP.

“Kyle, you're coming in with play on Bryson DeChambeau. Yeah, obviously Bryson here is a guy I'm looking at. I like him to be a top three USA point scorer, plus 125 over on DraftKings. When projecting out all these players on a per course basis and how they fit for the spot, it's tough to overlook Bryson. Obviously, Bethpage Black, everyone knows how important distance is going to be here.”

Independent authoritative-result check agrees with the stored lost outcome.

“But I also do have a bet out there on Tommy Fleetwood”

Scottie Scheffler won the 2025 Open Championship at -17, so Tommy Fleetwood did not win (The Open). (Scheffler -17, winner)

“But I'm more than happy to throw a bat out there on Sepp Straka at 50-1”

Scottie Scheffler won the 2025 Open Championship at -17, so Sepp Straka did not win (The Open). (Scheffler -17, winner)

“I have a Xander ticket out there. I prefer him. He's at 22-1 right now for FanDuel, over on FanDuel.”

Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.

“I also bet Jon Rahm at 18 to one and then Joaquin Neiman and Hideki Matsuyama as well.”

Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.

“I also bet Jon Rahm at 18 to one and then Joaquin Neiman and Hideki Matsuyama as well.”

Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.

“I also bet Jon Rahm at 18 to one and then Joaquin Neiman and Hideki Matsuyama as well.”

Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.

“I also like Minwoo Lee for a top 10 at plus 650, so I love that call.”

The PGA TOUR’s final leaderboard lists Min Woo Lee 12th at the 2025 PGA Championship, outside the top 10. (Min Woo Lee: 12th place)

“Keith Mitchell at a top 20, another very boomer bus guy. I mean, talk about a guy who can easily be 12 over by the eighth hole if things go poorly and then you wake up thinking he's at the very bottom of the scoreboard. another guy just like that top 20 plus 350 like that number for Mitchell again lots of distance”

Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.

“finally Davis Thompson for a top 20 also at plus 400”

Independent check against the authoritative event record confirms the stored verdict.