Collin Whitchurch

“of them were picking Sinners to win Best Picture. So all of this is to say I still expect one battle after another to win Best Picture on Sunday, but there's enough smoke around Sinners to keep an eye on the number. I have a position on Sinners from a few weeks ago at plus 400 that I'm sitting on. If you can get plus 400 or better on Sinners, I would bet it. I think that there's enough value there.”

Independent verification agrees: One Battle After Another won Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards; Sinners did not.

“So I bet Sinners for best casting at minus 315.”

Independent verification agrees: One Battle After Another won Best Casting; Sinners did not.

“Yeah, this is my most vibes-based bed of the night. I know we talk a lot about Matt. here uh i talked a little bit about narrative and this is very narrative driven bet plus 375 for secret agent”

Independent verification agrees: Norway's Sentimental Value won Best International Feature; The Secret Agent did not.

“So I am taking a shot here on Corbett on the brutalist at plus money.”

Sean Baker won Best Director for Anora at the 97th Academy Awards, so Brady Corbet lost (Academy). (Best Director: Sean Baker)

“So I'm going back to the well at this category, but I'm going with the favorite this time in A Wild Robot at minus 250.”

Flow won Best Animated Feature at the 97th Academy Awards, so The Wild Robot lost (Academy). (Best Animated Feature: Flow)

“He actually gives Past Lives a 23% chance of winning, and Past Lives is way down the odds [5:19] board. [5:19] You can find it longer than 10 to 1 in a lot of places, so I'm definitely going to be taking [5:23] a stab at that, as well as the holdovers”

The Academy's official winners list names Anatomy of a Fall for Original Screenplay, confirming Past Lives lost.

“So I like Past Lives and the holdovers, both in this category. I'm [5:39] going to be taking a stab at both of them.”

The Academy's official winners list names Anatomy of a Fall for Original Screenplay, confirming The Holdovers lost.

“So I'm seeing Barbie around the plus 500 range right now. [10:30] I love that. [10:32] Definitely willing to take a shot on it.”

The Academy's official winners list names American Fiction for Adapted Screenplay, confirming Barbie lost.

“but then Oppenheimer, [24:20] again, we've talked about it. It's going to clean up most of the night. This might be another [24:24] technical category where the Academy just piles on to the accolades it's giving that film. At 20 to [24:30] one, it's worth a sprinkle, absolutely”

The Academy's official winners list names Poor Things for Makeup and Hairstyling, confirming Oppenheimer lost.

“[15:59] Anyway, but I digress. [16:01] Yes, I love the Cardinals this year. [16:03] My angle on betting on the Cardinals this year [16:06] is to fade the Milwaukee Brewers, [16:09] who I think are being overvalued. [16:10] Their win total right now, 86 and a half. [16:13] I'm going under on that.”

Official Masters results confirm that Brewers under 86.5 wins settled lost as recorded.

“[24:28] but one of the non long shots I'm going to be betting falls along the same [24:33] Padres love fest. [24:35] I'm betting Juan Soto to win NL MVP. [24:38] He's the favorite. [24:39] He's plus five 50. [24:41] you will rarely see me bet favorites this early in the season. I wouldn't, for example, [24:46] bet Shohei Otani to win AL MVP at plus 220. But at plus 550, I think this is the highest we're”

Official Masters results confirm that Juan Soto to win NL MVP settled lost as recorded.

“but they do have a very good starting pitching prospect who's currently coming off at 60 to one to win AL rookie of the year. That's Kyle Muller. They got him from the Braves in the deal that sent Sean Murphy to Atlanta. It doesn't look like Muller is going to start the year in Oakland's rotation, but that should not last long. Oakland's rotation as currently constructed by roster resource is Shintaro Fujinami, who's also kind of a stealth rookie of the year candidate. I actually am a big fan of his Behind him James Kaprilian J Sears Drew Rusinski Ken Waldachuk If you asking yourself who the hell are these guys exactly my point Kyle Muller came up made a handful of starts for the Braves at the end of last year. It went very poorly. I think playing in Oakland, playing in that spacious ballpark is going to help him out quite a bit. If Oakland can play competent defense behind him, which Oakland does have some competent defenders. They have some competent major leaguers. They're not going to be a good team by any means, but Mueller is going to get the innings to contend here. Last year, the pitcher who I was all over was Joe Ryan. Obviously, Julio Rodriguez ran away with the award, but Ryan's value got better or got worse, I should say, after opening day when people saw that he was”

Official Masters results confirm that Kyle Muller to win AL Rookie of the Year settled lost as recorded.

“[3:51] What do you got? [3:52] Yeah, my favorite bet for probably the entire show is for best documentary feature. [3:58] That is Fire of Love at plus 330.”

Official Academy Awards results confirm that Fire of Love to win Best Documentary Feature settled lost as recorded.

“So now All Quiet on the Western Front is plus 180 And I think there good value there”

Official Academy Awards results confirm that All Quiet on the Western Front to win Best Adapted Screenplay settled lost as recorded.

“I'm going to go with the Toronto Blue Jays plus 900 to win the World Series.”

Blue Jays were swept 2-0 by the Mariners in the 2022 AL Wild Card Series and did not reach the World Series; the Astros beat the Phillies 4-2 to win it.

“I'm going to go with the Toronto Blue Jays plus 900 to win the World Series. Look, if the Blue Jays had the name Boston or New York across the front of their jersey, I think people would be hyping them up a lot more than they are currently. This is the best team in a loaded AL East. They lost Marcus Simeon and Robbie Ray in the offseason, but brought in Kevin Gaussman, who is a legitimate ace to replace Ray. They brought in Matt Chapman, who had a down year offensively last year, but is going to improve their defense a lot and probably rebound with the stick. The rotation is insanely deep with five established major league pitchers, and that's before you even get to guys like Ross Stripling, who's a competent swingman, nor Nate Pearson, a top prospect not all that long ago who's dealt with injuries in the last few years. Anything they get from him is just an added bonus. Their bullpen is a little bit of a question mark, but they have a lot of established competent major league leaguers there like Adam Simber, Yemi Garcia. Jordan Romero is a closer that everyone's going to be grabbing in their fantasy leagues if they haven already He doesn have a lot of name recognition but again has a chance to be one of the top closers in the league Their win total right now is 92 and a half So I obviously like the over there That one of my favorite bets but World Series odds at plus 900 right now that right in line with the Yankees, but they're a significantly better team than the Yankees, significantly better team than the Red Sox. So I really like them at plus 900.”

Blue Jays finished the 2022 regular season 92-70 (92 wins), short of the 92.5 win total — the over lost. (Blue Jays 2022: 92-70)

“totals this year are really ugly, disgusting win totals, but among the worst teams in baseball and, and I'm buying in to the hype of, of how bad these teams are going to be. My first one is with the Oakland Athletics. You've all seen the movie Major League, I presume. That's what's happening to the Oakland Athletics right now. Hello, you know us. We're a Major League Baseball team. But nobody recognizes us, not even in our own hometown. The Oakland Athletic ownership is actively trying to make them lose games and not necessarily in a way like we saw with teams like the Cubs and the Astros early last decade where they're trying to like save money while building up this super farm. This team is just like outright making the worst team it possibly can. Its projections are a little high right now because they still have Frankie Montes and Sean Minaya in the rotation who they been actively shopping all off season will probably be moved by July at the latest The win totals right now are 70 and a half 71 and a half range This is a 100 loss roster. I don't see any way this team doesn't finish in last place in the AL West, even behind the Texas Rangers. 100 losses are within question. I think that the projections are way too high here. And the second team is the team that's going to be competing with Oakland for worst record in the American League, and that's the Baltimore Orioles. Oh, no! We suck again! This team loses 100 games every year. They're currently projected at 62.5. Like the A's, they are consistently trying to be bad. They don't even tinker on the margins. You see a lot of bad teams like the Pirates, who will make all these stealth, you know, waiver claims and try to find these reclamation projects. Baltimore doesn't do that. They just stand pat and they sign bad veterans who they're going to flip at the deadline. They do have a couple of intriguing prospects who are coming down the pipeline. Adley Rutschman, a lot of people know, a former first overall pick is going to take over at catcher pretty soon. They have Grayson Rodriguez, who's one of the most intriguing young pitching prospects out there. But I don't know if or when we're going to see them. And even with them, one or two players don't make that big of a difference in a win total in MLB. I think we're going to get another 100 losses. They're going to be in the 50s again this year. So Oakland and Baltimore under those are my two favorite bets ugly I love the stat oh go ahead”

Orioles finished the 2022 regular season 83-79, well over the 62.5 win total — the under lost. (Orioles 2022: 83-79)

“And it's most RBI and it's Freddie [37:10] Freeman at 25 to one.”

Freeman finished with 100 RBIs; Pete Alonso and Aaron Judge tied for the MLB lead at 131. (Freeman 100 RBIs; MLB leaders Alonso/Judge 131 RBIs)

“Seiya Suzuki talk and you didn't take the bait. Oh, well, if we're talking award futures, I'll go all over Suzuki. It's player specific, man, whatever you want it to be. Seiya Suzuki is not a long shot by any means. And this is actually a rare instance where I'm siding with one of the favorites. If you look at baseball prospectus's Pocota projections for the season and Suzuki's 50th percentile outcome, so if everything just breaks in an average fashion for Suzuki, we're still looking at a player who's going to be worth 3.7 war, hit 24 home runs, and his strikeout to walk numbers in Japan were insane, and they project to translate well in the United States. 71 walks against 87 strikeouts. He's going to play every day. He's already in his late 20s. And if you can find him in the plus 400 to plus 500 range, I think that health pending, he should be the runaway favorite for NL rookie of the year, where right now he's tracking in the second, third, fourth range. You see me with my Osaka Tigers hat on. I love me some Japanese baseball. He tore it up for the Hiroshima carp over the last couple of years, and he's going to bring it right back over here to America. And it's going to be very exciting, even especially at Wrigley field where we're going to see those balls fly out of the park. The bleacher bums are going to love this guy. I'm all over him for NL rookie of the year. He's a good defender too.”

Michael Harris II of the Braves won the 2022 NL Rookie of the Year award; Seiya Suzuki did not win.

“Blue Jays over 92.5 for all the reasons Zarrillo just said. [20:12] They're the best team in the American League, second best team in baseball.”

MLB's 2022 standings show Toronto finished below the 92.5-win line.

“[10:58] Yeah, it feels as if like, you know, folks forget like Olsen production wise can do just enough to replace Freeman. But Freeman's such, you know, the contract. He's in L.A. now, which is that feels like a and you're a reigning champion. He was the face of the lineup. [11:12] Just that feels like a very public reaction to why folks might be down on the Braves losing their anchor in the lineup. [11:19] That brings us now to the Philadelphia Phillies. [11:21] They are projected at 86 and a half wins on many books. [11:26] The Phillies in 2021, 82 and 80. [11:31] They finished six and a half back of those Atlanta Braves, so just over 500. [11:35] So the Phillies are expected to take a little bit of a leap based on how they finished last year.”

MLB's 2022 standings show Philadelphia exceeded the 86.5-win line.

“The Brewers are my favorite divisional bet. [26:08] They're my favorite World Series bet in the National League.”

MLB's 2022 standings show Milwaukee did not win the NL Central.

“[34:35] Cubs 2022. I do like the Cubs more than the market. The one guy I really want to talk about [34:41] though is Suzuki, who I think there is insane value in his rookie of the year number, even [34:46] listed among the favorites. [34:48] I think there's some books you can find him around the plus 400 to plus 500 range. [34:52] It his award to lose more than O Cruz who going to start in AAA for the Pirates This is a 27 year old who has a long track record of success in Japan He going to have every opportunity to crush balls [35:06] onto Waveland Avenue there in Chicago. [35:08] His Pocota projections, his 50th percentile outcome Pocota projections,”

MLB's award record identifies Michael Harris II, not Seiya Suzuki, as NL Rookie of the Year.

“Soul which is the Oscar favorite while the IDAs went with Flea So the odds are stacked against Flea but plus 340 presents pretty good value here for a legitimate upset and a deserved upset We don have to go back very far to find an instance where the Academy went with the IDA choice over the BAFTAs. It was 2016 when OJ Made in America beat 13th. So while Fleet doesn't have a shot at best international feature in any way, shape, or form, and its best animated feature odds are too long to recommend, with Encanto probably taking the prize there. Best documentary feature is where it has some value. I think that the Academy is going to want to recognize its brilliance somewhere. So that's the category that it's going to do so. So I'll take Flea plus 340. I'd probably bet it to plus 300.”

The Academy official 94th-Oscars winners list confirms the stored outcome.

“you and Colin kind of dupe this one out because I sitting here with a plus 550 ticket on the favorite Jessica Chastain who now minus 175 So now at this point I know you guys are looking in other areas So Colin I start with you What are you doing here for best actress? Yeah, in terms of the major awards, this is by far the most intriguing. The odds have been all over the place. Nicole Kidman was the favorite when nominations were announced. She's been leapfrogged by Jessica Chastain. That happened after she won at the SAG Awards. So the BAFTAs are actually the best predictor for best actress wins historically. They matched to the Academy the last eight years and 16 times total since 2000. However, the BAFTAs gave their best actress awards to Joanna Scanlon for After Love, and Scanlon, of course, isn't even nominated here. The SAG Awards have been right 15 times since 2000, and that's the sole reason Chastain has moved into pole position, in my opinion. However, the sacks have been incorrect in two of the last three years, as have the Golden Globes drama, which went to Kidman. So all of this has an anything-can-happen aura to it, and that seems really true. I think four of the five nominees, with apologies to Penelope for Parallel Mothers, which she's fantastic in, seemingly legitimately in the running to walk out of the theater with the trophy. So the other thing to consider here is the roles that these women play and their ages. Frances McDormand a year ago skirted the playing historical figure principle, but she did win as an actress over the age of 60. She was 63 last year. So this year we have three women playing historical figures, Chastain, Kidman, and Kristen Stewart. However, four of the five nominees fall into that middle ground age-wise where we don't often see Best Actress wins. Chastain's 44, Kidman's 54, Olivia Colman's 48, and Cruz's 47. Kristen Stewart's only 31. So she fits into the principle of both historical figure and under the age of 35 or over the age of 60. I've wondered this entire time since I saw Spencer why Stewart isn't getting more love. I think there's just some hatred out there for her because of Twilight. But she's fantastic as Princess Diana and Spencer and very deserving of this award. And given the anything can happen aura around this award, I think plus 500 is too good to pass up. I'll disagree with Colin in terms of why I think Kristen Stewart hasn't gotten as much buzz for this award.”

The Academy official 94th-Oscars winners list confirms the stored outcome.

“Okay, let's talk original screenplay. This is another one where Colin, you and Katie have a bet here. So Katie, why don't you start us off? What are you looking at for best original screenplay? I am looking at Belfast. This is another one of those races, along with adapted screenplay, that feels open enough that taking a shot with a film that's not favored is worth it. Belfast won the Critics' Choice, Licorice Pizza won the BAFTA, then Don't Look Up won the WGA. But Belfast wasn't eligible for the WGA, all of which to say or to illustrate how open this is. Belfast emerged early on as a favorite for a best picture. It's lost a lot of steam since then, but it is the only best picture, rather the only of the three best picture heavy contenders in this original screenplay category. And so I'm thinking that this could be the way the Academy tries to award Belfast, and this is the most likely award I see it winning. Yeah, I don't hate the Belfast pick. given the fact that it was ineligible for the WGAs, definitely throws a wrench into things. I'm personally going with Don't Look Up here. I think that this is the category where they're going to choose to award this film, a highly contentious film people either loved or hated. I am on the former side there. I thought it was fantastic. Like you mentioned, Belfast wasn't eligible at the WGAs. The WGAs gave their award to Don't Look Up, and the BAFTAs went with Licorice Pizza. And those two awards are basically split in predictability of Oscar success since 2000. The WGA has been correct 14 times and the BAFTA has been correct 13 times. Eight times they've agreed and been right. Once they've agreed and been wrong, that was Birdman over Grand Budapest Hotel in 2014. And once they have disagreed and still been wrong, which was Green Book over eighth grade and the favorite in 2018. While they disagree, when they disagree and one is right, however, the WGA holds a slight edge, correctly predicting the Academy Award six times to the Baptist five. The last time that happened was in 2017 when the Baptist went with three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri. The Oscar went to WGA choice, Get Out. So the value here, I think, is on Don't Look Up at plus 410. A lot of bettors and the odds makers see it as close to a coin flip between Licorice Pizza and Belfast. and I understand why, but I think there's enough value on Don't Look Up at Plus 410 that I'm going to make that my choice here.”

The Academy official 94th-Oscars winners list confirms the stored outcome.

“Speaking of World Series titles, that's the most interesting play here. I'm going to throw something at you guys, and you're going to call me crazy or you're not, but I am all over the Tampa Bay Rays World Series future. I think it's insane. This team, first of all, we saw them make the World Series last year. BJ, you talked about the rotation concerns. They don't have Tyler Glass now anymore. This is still a team that won 100 games and ran away with a division that had four teams win 91 or more games. There's never been a division like that in the history of baseball. Kevin Cash or the Rays front office probably more than likely pulls all the right strings. They have a deep pitching staff. They're going to throw openers out there out at you. They're going to do everything in their power. And we're looking at them at plus 650, plus 750. for the Giants to be ahead of them, for the Astros to be that far ahead of them, to me, it's just absurd. Give me Rays plus 650 to plus 750 range all day.”

MLB's 2021 postseason record shows Tampa Bay did not win the World Series.

“One of my favorite things to do to kind of expand upon World Series futures is play World Series matchups where you can find even better odds, which is also very tough to hit for good reasons. So I'm jumping on my Rays love with a Rays Brewers matchup at plus 1600 and a Rays Braves matchup at plus 2200, which, you know, Major League Baseball will just love those two markets in the World Series.”

MLB's 2021 postseason record shows a Rays-Brewers World Series did not occur.

“One of my favorite things to do to kind of expand upon World Series futures is play World Series matchups where you can find even better odds, which is also very tough to hit for good reasons. So I'm jumping on my Rays love with a Rays Brewers matchup at plus 1600 and a Rays Braves matchup at plus 2200, which, you know, Major League Baseball will just love those two markets in the World Series.”

MLB's 2021 postseason record shows a Rays-Braves World Series did not occur.

• Seattle Mariners ML closed +136 · CLV +2¢ lost
• No runs in 1st inning

“give me your pick too. Chad, I have a same game parlay between the Astros and Mariners tonight. I like the Mariners on the money line, tied with no runs first inning at plus 290. There's a reason FanDuel Sportsbook is America's number one sportsbook. The app is simple to use.”

8-6 — Astros beat the Mariners 8-6 on July 27, 2021 (Mariners ML leg lost), and Seattle scored 2 runs in the bottom of the 1st on a Kyle Seager homer (no-runs-1st leg also lost), so the same-game parlay busts (ESPN box score).

“The Rays, I see it [40:28] 14 to one to win the world series.”

Rays lost the 2021 ALDS to the Red Sox 3 games to 1 and did not win the World Series, so the future lost (Wikipedia).

“As far as pennant winners go, I'm with BJ on the Phillies. I would probably, you know, maybe split a unit between them and the Braves who I mentioned early because they're both 25 to one. I just think again talking about the NL West gauntlet and whoever comes out of the East is going to have an easier path I think the Brewers you know they down to plus 525 for the pennant So I don see as much value there in whoever comes out of the East The Mets are 425. And then you've got the Phillies and Braves at 25 to 1 who are longer shots. So I really like that there.”

Phillies finished 82-80, second in the NL East, and missed the 2021 playoffs, so the NL pennant future lost (Wikipedia).

“And in the American League, I'm going to go with BJ on the Blue Jays. I see them at 13 to 1.”

Blue Jays finished 91-71 and missed the 2021 playoffs, one game behind Boston and New York for the AL wild cards, so the AL pennant future lost (Wikipedia).