Paul Lo Duca

“Saturday, Arkansas Derby down at Oak Lawn. Who you got? Omaha Beach is going to be tough in there. I know Improbable or the other Baffert. Improbable can suck it I on Omaha Beach I with you too I like the way he held off game winner and I thought Game Winner might have hung a little bit in that race Mike Smith brother I not betting against Mike Smith in these races”

Omaha Beach won the 2019 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 13, 2019, so the Omaha Beach win bet cashes.

“the school robert morris okay they're minus four tonight uh hosting liu brooklyn [38:05] so you're on robert morris for kk l o kk that's paulie's lock of the day”

62-49 — Robert Morris beat LIU Brooklyn 62-49 on Feb 21, 2019, covering the -4 spread comfortably.

“Are you ready? Paul, you're up. College football. The Army Black Knights. I told you this last week. Major Applewhite fires his defensive coordinator, first of all, after they lost to Memphis, which is a similar, well, not similar running style. But now they've got a new defensive coordinator that has to prepare for the triple option. they're according to colin wilson 77th in the nation against the stuff in in stuff rate which would be used in um but with ed oliver not on the field they were gave up almost close to 45 points with him not on the field with him on the field the yards per carry go down almost three yards he is not playing is going to get ready for the draft this line also um has gone from 67 to 60 because i just think that army is just going to possess the ball plus houston's i'm starting a freshman quarterback they lost their quarterback i know he's got a couple weeks to prepare and got a little bit better but i just think army is going to run all day and all night all over houston I like this pick and I'll add one more thing in there as well. You mentioned Houston's had a quarterback change and they're not going to have the ball enough in my opinion to score enough points and we know that when you play a team like Army points are at a premium. I mean Army is 10-2 they're good for a reason. They score points they hold the ball. They hold the ball against Oklahoma for 45 minutes of that game I think they're going to win this game and they're going to win this game big and they're only a three and a half point favorite so so they're you know their their money lines minus 170 it's good value for the parlay”

ARMY 70, HOU 14 — Army beat Houston 70-14 in the 2018 Armed Forces Bowl; Army moneyline covers (Wikipedia, citing official bowl result).

“Speaking of winning You guys ready? Los Angeles Rams On the road At the Arizona Cardinals Yeah They're gonna be at minus 1,000 too They're 14, right? I told you guys a long time ago I'm an Arizona Cardinal fan And you guys didn't believe me They're the worst team in football They are Minus 1,600 god they're so bad minus 1600 okay but i will say we running out of gimme yeah i i have a i have a couple options here for my last pick Do you guys want to add underdog into this equation for this weekend”

ARI 9, LAR 31 — Rams beat Cardinals 31-9; Los Angeles moneyline covers (ESPN box score).

“Pauly, what do you got? I don't even know where to go. Tough. There a good college game I think that pretty See I like Northwestern though but that later Look at Friday at 4 p Paul Friday at 4 p.m.? Yeah. That is Purdue at... Oh, no, I'm backwards. Toledo at FIU? No, BYU-Western Machine. Oh, yeah. Yeah, it's BYU. not to make your third pick for you yeah I mean like um they're minus 12 BYU Western Michigan I want to say that Colin when I was looking at Colin he got his really high confidence index yeah he did he has 1 through 39 you got to go to the action website Colin Wilson does his 1 through 39 confidence picks um and he has them high on the confidence BYU he actually has them slated as I think it's 39th I think his most confident pick 33 out of 39 33 I'm sorry yeah so minus 12 just to win the game so now our parlay is probably down to maybe breaking even for the year if we hit this one 30 cents we'll win 30 cents on this parlay team's favorite by 10 or more 10 or more points in bowl games have won 73% of the time since 2005. Yeah. Or would you rather have a bowl? It's probably too bold to pick. I don't know. Fascinating radio. Well, my thing is I just think the Bears are just a better team, but I know you've got to go to San Francisco, but the San Francisco Chargers just have the Seattle Seahawks number. They've outscored. They've outgained them over 1,000 yards in the last two games they've played them. So to me, I just think that ends. Chad, how do you feel about the Bears going to San Francisco? You're the Bears fan. I think it's a weird spot. Stay away. Yeah I stay away Three favorites I don know Eddie Jackson is not going to be playing Correct I think he is a galvanizing force for that secondary Coming off of winning the conference, I worry about the letdown spot. What about New Orleans and Pittsburgh? That's a weird line, don't you think so? Yeah. So we're going to BYU? Yeah, we'll go with BYU.”

BYU 49, WMU 18 — BYU beat Western Michigan 49-18 in the 2018 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl; BYU moneyline covers (Wikipedia, citing official bowl result).

“okay my choice okay so we're going money line thing with these money lines we'll go with the Ravens on the money line I was talking to Chad off before we started the podcast And to me, that felt like the most playoff game that we've seen this whole year. Hard hitting. Everything was contested. The Baltimore Ravens defense contested everything that Mahomes threw at him. And listen, it took a miracle. It took him rolling to the right, throwing all the way back to his left, and Tyreek Hill adjusting to that ball for them to win that game. And Lamar Jackson made a mistake at the end of the game, and then the missed field goal, and then it went into overtime, all that. But Baltimore, the way they're running the ball, they're running the ball 66% of the time right now. And they going to be able to control the football If you look at Jameis Winston and the way Tampa Bay he was already he was yelling at multiple people on the sideline yesterday because one guy missed the snapper was in the wrong motion, and it was his fault after a pick. I just think this is an easy money line. Plus, Baltimore needs to win this game. I get it was a tough loss, but they should have won that game against Kansas City. They played their hearts out. Yeah, here's another thing that's pretty remarkable. The Ravens have this new offense with Lamar Jackson. An offense that's unsustainable in the future. It's just sustainable now as kind of a gimmicky offense. I'll tell you why it's unsustainable. They've now played the last four weeks. They've played the Bengals, in no particular order. Bengals, Falcons, Raiders, Chiefs. Those run defenses, 28, 29, 31, and 32. Now they've played Tampa, the 30th ranked rushing defense. They got 198 rushing yards yesterday. They had 200 each the previous three games. So I'm with you, Paul. I think the Ravens run the football again very well. And their defense, we saw what their defense did yesterday to the Chiefs. They were able to pressure Mahomes, give him looks he had not seen before. And they did play well. Look, the Chiefs were averaging 36.5 points per game and only scored 27. So I think the Ravens do win this game. They're favored by 8.5. So it tells you that Vegas obviously thinks they should win this game. I'm good with you here. let me just point something out Vegas doesn't think they're going to win this game Vegas thinks the people think the Ravens are going to win this game and they can take advantage of that it's called ownage what what alright let's do the Ravens what's their no the money line is not on the app yeah Yeah, yeah. Maybe their ownage just to cover. It's a lot of points this late in the year. Oh, I think it's at minus 370.”

BAL 20, TB 12 — Baltimore Ravens beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-12; Ravens moneyline won (ESPN box score).

“And again, another line that's like 7, we'll take App State on the money line.”

Appalachian State 45, Middle Tennessee 13 — Appalachian State beat Middle Tennessee 45-13 in the 2018 New Orleans Bowl on Dec 15, 2018; App State moneyline won (Wikipedia summary of the game).

“Okay. Well, I'm just going to go with the principal. You just can't lay too many points. I mean, the Buffalo Bills being a nine-point favorite is just too much for me. So I'll play the Jets in somewhat of a revenge game, I guess, considering the Jets got beat by the Bills 41-10 all the time they played. So I'll take the nine points in Buffalo.”

NYJ 27, BUF 23 — Jets beat Bills 27-23 outright, covering the +9 line easily.

“So I like the Colts to plus the four and a half points.”

IND 24, HOU 21 — Colts beat Texans 24-21 outright, covering the +4.5 line.

“have our nine picks let's recap all nine of them i took baltimore plus seven against the chiefs i took arizona plus two and a half uh at home against the lines this weekend and i ended with cleveland plus one against the Panthers That is in Cleveland as well Paula Duca Buffalo plus nine Got a great number against the Jets. You better hop on that now, people, before that changes. They're at home against the New York Jets. Second pick took the Colts plus four and a half at the Texas. The Colts, obviously, losers. Six to nothing yesterday. Remarkable. Getting some points here like this play. And ends with the Bears at home. Big game, Bears, Rams, Bears, plus three and a half.”

CHI 15, LAR 6 — Bears beat Rams 15-6 at home, winning by 9, covering the +3.5 line.

“Let's go, Georgia, at plus 13 and a half right now.”

ALA 35, UGA 28 — Alabama beat Georgia 35-28 in the SEC Championship; Georgia margin -7 covers the +13.5 line (ESPN final).

“Let's do Kansas City money line.”

KC 40, OAK 33 — Chiefs beat Raiders 40-33; moneyline on Kansas City covers (ESPN final).

“Memphis is minus seven and a half at Houston, and I'll book it for you. Whoa, whoa, whoa. Let me bet this right now. Come on. Seriously, you're only a favorite by seven and a half? Paulie, I don't know if you should be booking bets on the air. No, I'm saying book it. Can I get a ka-ching? It's my turn. Thank you. And I'm with Jeff on this. I was waiting for the line to get up. You know, SMU and Memphis somewhat played the same kind of game, and they played a nip-and-tuck battle game, which a lot of people thought was going to be high scoring. I think they were over that game. It was like 70-something. It ended up being like 28. It was a low scoring game, 28-16 or so. But SMU put up over 570-something yards on offense on Houston. Memphis can run all day. Houston cannot stop the run. And the best part about this is Houston just blasted a Tulane team, so it will look even better. And so they hang up the dreaded 7.5 line that you don't want to punch. And I'm with Jeff here. I was going to play. This is going to be one of my picks. I think Memphis is the real deal.”

MEM 52, HOU 31 — Memphis beat Houston 52-31; Tigers margin +21 covers the -7.5 line (ESPN final).

“I actually got one for you. Oh, you're asking me for a pick? All right, go ahead, Laduka. You're up next. I guess we're cashing. We're cashing on the Chiefs plus two and a half. Paul Laduka. Navy Midshipmen. Minus five. against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane.”

NAVY 37, TLSA 29 — Navy beat Tulsa 37-29; Midshipmen won by 8, covering the -5 line (ESPN box score).

“The Seahawks plus 11 against the Rams.”

LAR 36, SEA 31 — Rams beat Seahawks 36-31, a 5-point margin that covers Seahawks +11 (ESPN box score).

“Tennessee Titans plus six.”

DAL 14, TEN 28 — Titans beat Cowboys 28-14; Tennessee's +14 margin covers the +6 line (ESPN box score).

“The Denver Broncos plus 10”

KC 30, DEN 23 — Chiefs beat Broncos 30-23; Denver's -7 margin covers the +10 line (ESPN box score).

“New Orleans Saints at the Minnesota Vikings under and over is 52 you are not taking the Saints This is under. I'm taking the under.”

MIN 20, NO 30 — Saints beat Vikings 30-20, combined 50 points; the under 52 covers (ESPN box score).

“Keep riding it Keep riding it until we see it fall off Paul you up Okay I going to go with the Washington Redskins Yes. At home. Yes. At a point and a half against the Dallas Cowboys. I love this pick.”

WSH 20, DAL 17 — Redskins beat Cowboys 20-17; Washington Redskins -1.5 wins by 3, covers (ESPN box score).

“Off a bye week, USC Trojans. [26:17] Minus seven against the Colorado Buffaloes. [26:20] Book it.”

USC 31, COLO 20 — USC beat Colorado 31-20; USC margin +11 vs -7 line covers (ESPN box score).

“I love this Bill's defense. I mean, look. Very good. Josh Allen, there's like... How's McDermott doing it? He's not very good. Yes, just say it. There's a masquerade going on. Josh Allen is awful. Jeff, how many yards did he throw for last week? 82. On Sunday. 82 yards on Sunday. He's 9 for 18 for 82. I will give you this. He has a knack to use his feet here and there We give you that That doesn make you a good quarterback Everyone always like oh his feet Oh my No I not saying the guy a good quarterback I saying he can save eight and a half points I'm just talking about, no, I think that's great for covering a game.”

HOU 20, BUF 13 — Texans beat Bills 20-13; Buffalo margin -7 vs +8.5 line covers (ESPN box score).

“I like Illinois. They're laying two and a half at Rutgers.”

38-17 — Illinois beat Rutgers 38-17 (ESPN); the 21-point win covers -2.5.

“Paulie, you're up next. Okay, with my next selection. and it's i'm gonna piggyback on your boy and we're talking about teams that are a little bit underappreciated and how about washington state now they're they're three you know they won 41 to 19 you know they shut out san jose state and you you talk uh about schwarze said that he lost a lot of units san jose state gave oregon some fits this weekend um sort of stayed in that game like Oregon can never really just like spurt away from them at all so to me this is a simple simple game of listen to our Collin Wilson and playing an underrated team here in the Pac-12. Now with Arizona State losing, we need teams out of the Pac-12 to start emerging. And I think Washington State's the play here against SC, plus the points. I have to pick another pick now, Paul, because this is going to be my third one. I love this pick. I saw this right away. You have a USC team that is not very good. And I think there's a lot of questions now whether Clay Helton is a really good coach. We saw he wasn't very good without Sam Darnold, but Sam Darnold plays for two years. he's pretty good. And now, you know, the first half against UNLV, well, really, they were only up 19-14 entering the fourth quarter. They scored three touchdowns or something in the fourth quarter, and one that came easily. They lost to Stanford, really, in no contest, 17-3. And then Texas blew them out. Texas is, what, a 6-16, a 7-16? They're just, like, okay. Texas might get run out of the gym by TCU this week. They probably will. So I think this is great. You get the point. And by the way, also, Paul, you're a West Coast guy. You know this. Friday night night games in the Pac-12 are funky, dude. They're weird as can be. And there's a lot of upsets on Friday night in the Pac-12 conference. This feels very much like a Washington State could win this game outright. I'm with both of you. It was one of the games that I had sort of pegged on the board. And I knew, Jeff, that you wanted to take it. And then Paul just stole it from you. As a guy who played in the Pac-12, is it stranger to play a game on a Friday night? Is it harder to play a game on a Friday night? The Pac-12 has had really weird scheduling quirks, and they've fixed some of these issues that they've had on Friday nights. They've always sent really good teams, not out of conference, but to weird spots. They put a ranked USC team up in Pullman or Washington. It's a weird place to play. You're playing Corvallis at Oregon State on the Friday night. They just always have sent really good teams at the weirdest places to play in the conference. If you've ever been to Pullman or you've ever been to Corvallis, like you kind of would understand the quirkiness of those places. And it's, I'm just, it just is, Pac-12 after dark, the games that start late at night, they're just odd, man. There's a lot of points. They don't go as you think they're going to go. It's just a weird conference out west sometimes when the lights are on. All right, so now we're at Washington State plus four and a half against USC. I agree.”

36-39 — USC beat Washington State 39-36; WSU +4.5 loses by only 3, covers (ESPN box score).

“Indianapolis Colts plus seven against the Philadelphia Eagles Here my logic Number one Andrew Luck”

16-20 — Eagles beat Colts 20-16; Indianapolis +7 loses by only 4, covers (ESPN box score).

“and lay your six and a half points and lose all your money while Paula Duca bets the Tennessee Titans the Fighting Vrabels plus six and a half Book it Dano Give me a reason”

9-6 — Titans beat Jaguars 9-6 outright; Tennessee +6.5 covers easily (ESPN box score).

“We're going to go in New Mexico, minus six.”

UNM 42, NMSU 25 — New Mexico beat New Mexico State 42-25; New Mexico's margin +17 covers -6 (ESPN game page).