Guest · 9-12 on settled picks
“[53:15] I could see that being a defense ahead of the offense, sloppy week one, you know, 23-20 game. [53:22] And so I like under 48 and a half in that spot of the three games you mentioned, if we're talking gambling.”
“well so i bet the bears at 27 to 1 just so that i would have just so that i would have the ticket uh i bet them at 27 to 1 immediately”
“And then the Chargers, again, I've been on them all year, so no one's going to be surprised by it. But if they get Alton Slater back, which they will, those are arguably their second and third best players. And then you added one of the best offensive minds and play designers in the NFL, but he doesn't have to do the culture football guy stuff. He just gets to be a genius in Mike McDaniel. So you're going to make it easier for Justin Herbert to hit layups. You're going to protect Justin Herbert. And they have a ton of cap space to plug holes, whether they want to do the interior of their offensive line, whether they want to get a little bit younger at some key spots on defense. They're in a great spot. So listen, the problem is that I've had a Chargers future probably five of the last six years. So, again, not the most creative take, and it sounds like maybe I agree with you, but those are two futures bets that I absolutely love.”
“So I have a nice Spain 4-1 future for a big number that would be great.”
1-0 — Spain beat Argentina 1-0 in extra time on a 106th-minute goal by Ferran Torres to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, covering the Spain-to-win-it-all future.
“Yes, I have Cavs to win the East bets.”
4-0 — The Knicks swept the Cavaliers 4-0 to win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals; Cleveland did not win the East (NBA.com).
“Yes, I have Thunder over Cavs, exact finals results.”
4-1 — The Knicks beat the Spurs 4-1 to win the 2026 NBA Finals; the Thunder lost the Western Conference Finals to the Spurs and never faced the Cavaliers, who also did not reach the Finals (NBA.com).
“I bet it when the matchup was set at 3.5. I'm very proud to say that. I laid the 3.5 with Seattle.”
SEA 29-NE 13 — Seahawks beat Patriots 29-13 in Super Bowl LX; Seattle -3.5 covers a 16-point margin (ESPN box score).
“chargers plus three and a half um herbert's awesome their defense is really good”
NE 16, LAC 3 — Patriots beat Chargers 16-3 in the AFC Wild Card game; Los Angeles lost by 13, busting the +3.5 spread (ESPN recap).
“One, for this game, one of my favorite bets of the year is over 51.”
SF 42, CHI 38 — 49ers beat the Bears 42-38, a combined 80 points, clearing the 51 total; Over 51 covers (ESPN box score).
“so the reason I won't bet the bears is because I already have much more money added at 14 to one and longer. So I'm already properly invested.”
LAR 20, CHI 17 — The Bears won the NFC North and reached the divisional round but lost to the Rams 20-17 in overtime on Jan 18, 2026, never reaching the NFC Championship; the pick to win the NFC loses (ESPN).
“on the look ahead line before last week's games and i obviously got very lucky with injuries here i bet the bears plus three and a half in this game at soldier field”
CHI 22, GB 16 — Bears beat Packers 22-16 in overtime, a 6-point margin that covers +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I did money line just in case you're interested.”
LAC 16, KC 13 — Chargers beat Chiefs 16-13; Los Angeles Chargers moneyline covers (ESPN).
“but on one of the sites you could get Steelers to win the AFC North today at plus 290 That to me should be plus 175 I think it should be a lot closer than that So I made a Steelers to win the AFC North bet today simply based on the value.”
The Pittsburgh Steelers won the 2025 AFC North at 10-7, clinching the division in Week 18 (ESPN standings); the futures bet cashes.
“And, like, I'll weigh the three and a half. Like, yeah, let's go.”
DAL 31, KC 28 — Cowboys beat Chiefs 31-28 on Thanksgiving; Chiefs lost outright, missing the -3.5 spread (ESPN).
“I bet the Colts to win the AFC South before the year.”
The Jacksonville Jaguars clinched the AFC South title (finishing 13-4), so Colts to win the AFC South lost (NFL.com). (2025 AFC South champion: Jacksonville Jaguars)
“raven's minus two and a half is a bet that they seem to be begging you to take and i will be taking it”
KC 37, BAL 20 — Chiefs beat Ravens 37-20; Ravens lost outright, so -2.5 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“And, you know, big picture, I'll tell you this, when it was 48-and-a-half, I hammered the over”
CHI 31, DAL 14 — Bears beat Cowboys 31-14, combined 45 points; over 48.5 busts (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Eagles at four and a half. It's six. I'll still take it.”
PHI 55, WSH 23 — Eagles beat Commanders 55-23 in the NFC Championship, a 32-point margin that covers Eagles -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“All right, my first pick of the week is Green Bay getting 3.5 at Detroit.”
DET 34, GB 31 — Detroit beat Green Bay 34-31; Packers +3.5 covers, losing by only 3 (ESPN).
“I love the Giants getting four and a half at home against New Orleans.”
NO 14, NYG 11 — New Orleans beat the NY Giants 14-11; Giants +4.5 covers, losing by only 3 (ESPN).
“Atlanta plus five and a half against Minnesota.”
MIN 42, ATL 21 — Minnesota beat Atlanta 42-21; Falcons +5.5 fails, losing by 21 (ESPN).
“So I bet Green Bay at three and a half.”
24-14 — The Lions beat the Packers 24-14, a 10-point margin, so Green Bay failed to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I think the Bears, Colts, Browns, 11-1 Moneyline Underdog Parlay comes in for you this Sunday in the NFL.”
27-10 — The Cleveland Browns lost 27-10 to the LA Chargers, an outright loss on the Browns moneyline leg that alone sinks the Browns/Colts/Bears underdog parlay regardless of the other legs (ESPN box score).
“Minus one twenty five to win that division is a lock. That I know that's like a oh, there's no such thing as a lock. That is a great bet. I hated what they did with the eighth overall pick in the draft. I loathed it. It was intergalactically stupid. But everything else that they did this offseason was really good. They upgraded significantly at quarterback. They upgraded significantly at coach. They upgraded significantly at offensive coordinator slash play caller, and they upgraded significantly at wide receiver two and three. That feels pretty good. That feels pretty good. So I and they were the eleventh ranked defense in the NFL last year. So I I think that they will win that division. I think they will win double digit games.”
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) won the 2024 NFC South; the Atlanta Falcons finished 8-9 in second, so the Falcons-to-win-the-division bet lost.