Guest · 76-115-4 on settled picks
| League | spread | futures | total | moneyline | other | prop | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 30-34-10% | 1-17-6% | 8-11-19% | 9-11+3% | — | 1-0 | 49-73-8% |
| NBA | 10-3+47% | 4-11-49% | 3-5-28% | — | 0-1 | 2-1 | 19-21-9% |
| Other | — | 3-13-41% | 1-1 | 2-1 | 1-5-68% | — | 7-20-37% |
“[25:19] I'm very convinced of that. [25:21] And when you have a total in the 50s but the advantages just schematically and talent wise on both defensive lines This is potential to be a much much lower scoring game [25:34] than the market's making it out to be. [25:35] So I took under 51.5 there, and I would bet that all the way [25:40] until it crosses 50 and not really be sweating.”
“But if I gave you $100, Rams plus $500, I think you kind of answered that question already. Bills, this is all odds courtesy of our friends at BetMGM. Bills, 10-1. Ravens, 11. Seattle, 11. Kansas City, 15. The Chargers and Niners, 17. the Broncos and Lions and Packers and Patriots 18 along with the Eagles Texans 20 Bengals 22 Bears 25 Cowboys 25 Jaguars 30 Vikings Bucks 50 Colts 66 will draw the line there here's a hundred bucks who are you betting to win the Super Bowl at price I almost certainly in the month of June any year my eyes immediately drop to 30 to 1 and below Like I'm only trying to prey on upside at this time of the calendar. Like there's almost – even at like plus 550, like, oh, okay, win a 500 bucks, cool. In February, I can cash a 500 ticket. No, thanks. I'm much more inclined to look for a 30 to 50 to 1 kind of price point and try to catch a rising star, a shooting star, so to speak. So among those teams that you mentioned in that sort of 30 to 50 to 1 range, for me, the team that stands out in the NFC at price is the Vikings. I think that there's a lot to be said about the positive upside of Kyler Murray in a Kevin O'Connell system. I don't mind and honestly I just kind of want to make a bet on the Vikings to just try to you know kind of put my money in a what I know to be true which is that the Arizona Cardinals are a dysfunctional disaster of an organization and if you take a a very talented player out of a disaster of an organization and put him into a good one good things tend to happen look at Sam Darnold Look at countless examples of these very, very talented players put in good situations and then watch them thrive. I will happily prey on that. I think they have a high floor defense. Didn't mention them in that commentary about all of a sudden there are now eight very competent, very complete defenses in the NFL. The Vikings are absolutely one of them, in my opinion, particularly with the way they're coached. And I'm excited to see what Kyler Murray looks like in a Kevin O'Connell system with those weapons on offense. So I'm looking for a 50 to one price in June, almost in the blind every year.”
“Well, game one, I'm going to lay four and a half. I think game one is short. Like my numbers, I just stick to the numbers for the most part until we understand a little bit better matchup-wise. The numbers say bet the Spurs game one”
Knicks 105, Spurs 95 — Knicks beat Spurs 105-95 in NBA Finals Game 1; Spurs lost outright, failing to cover -4.5 (ESPN box score).
“I think the bigger edge is actually under 218 and a half in that game. Tough for me to see any world where game six is not a rock fight. Timberwolves only getting to what, 96, 97 last night. Wait, did they even get there? But yeah, 97. Yeah, the Spurs have figured out a way to turn off the Julius Randle opportunities, which was kind of the only way that the Timberwolves were going to find enough offense to be competitive in the series with the injuries to their other key players. So tough for me to see how Timberwolves kind of show up and really give a full heart perform. They may have a good first quarter. They may have a good first half. But I think the Spurs ultimately put this team away in the second half and do it via defense. And I think the total should be more like 212. So under 218 and a half. Favorite look on that one.”
SAS 139, MIN 109 — Spurs beat Timberwolves 139-109 in Game 6 on May 15, 2026; the combined total of 248 went well over 218.5, so the Under lost (ESPN).
“Do you have a preakness bet in like 20 seconds? Incredibolt. He's the class runner in the field, and he's going to go off at like 4-1, which is bananas because he's the best closer in this field, and this is a race with lots of early speed. I think you're going to see a really hot pace early going, and Incredibolt's going to clean up the mess. He drew an outside draw, which is perfect. He's going to be able to sit a trip and ultimately close like a thunderbolt of lightning. incredible is your winner of the 151st running.”
Napoleon Solo won the 2026 Preakness Stakes; Incredibolt finished off the board, so the futures bet on Incredibolt lost (CBS Sports).
“Bet MGM right now, the Pistons are plus 200 to win the East. The Knicks are minus 110. It sounds to me like if you were giving betting advice, which you do, you would advise the people to bet the Pistons to win the Eastern Conference. Correct or incorrect and why? Correct. I have bet it.”
CLE 4, DET 3 (series) — The Pistons were eliminated by the Cavaliers 4-3 in the 2026 Eastern Conference semifinals, so Detroit did not win the East (Philstar/AP wire recap of the Cavs' Game 7 125-94 win).
“I have bet it. I'm into the Pistons in the series against the Cavs pretty heavily. I think they come through by margin 4-1, 4-2 are my most likely outcomes for that series. Pistons advance.”
CLE 4, DET 3 (series) — The Cavaliers eliminated the Pistons 4-3 in the second round, winning Game 7 125-94 on the road at Detroit (Philstar/AP wire recap).
“So this is going to be a close game three. I would put under 216 and a half as the best bet for this game three.”
SA 115, MIN 108 — Spurs beat the Timberwolves 115-108 on May 8, 2026 (Game 3); the combined 223 points busts the under 216.5 (ESPN box score).
“Your other Western Conference series, to me, I have a pretty significant position on OKC sweep. Not expecting Luka back.”
4-0 — The Thunder swept the Lakers 4-0 in the 2026 Western Conference semifinals (Wikipedia 2026 NBA playoffs summary), consistent with OKC's 2-0 series lead confirmed by the ESPN Game 2 box score (125-107).
“I'm suggesting they're going to try to win, and they're going to get beat by, like, five or six points. So I like three and a half here. I like 3.5 quite a lot. If they don't try to win, then that's fun for us, I guess. But yeah, I was expecting this one to open 4.5, 5. I was surprised it opened 4. I almost bet it then. I'm glad I waited. I see some 3s now. But I think 3.5, if that's what you're being offered, I think that's a fair price on Phoenix. And for me, that's the best bet of the night. This total sitting at 2.17.5 is also not correct, in my opinion. I had both of these totals right around 222, so under in the first game, over in the second game. But if I could only have one, I'll take the Phoenix Suns.”
114-110 — Trail Blazers beat Suns 114-110 outright, so Phoenix Suns -3.5 lost (ESPN final score).
“I played some over 5.5.”
Timberwolves beat the Nuggets 4-2 in the first-round series (6 games), so the series over 5.5 games won.
“I played some Timberwolves plus 2.5 games in that series, and I have a small piece of Timberwolves outright.”
Timberwolves won the series outright 4-2 over the Nuggets, so Timberwolves +2.5 games covered easily.
“Yeah, so I can tell you what I did bet. I'm the furthest off market in Denver, Minnesota. I think that's a much closer series than the market is making it. I'm not worried about the injuries to Edwards and McDaniels. I think they're going to be able to put up 40 minutes throughout the duration of this series. and I think the Timberwolves are going to give the Nuggets a scare. I played some over 5.5. I played some Timberwolves plus 2.5 games in that series, and I have a small piece of Timberwolves outright.”
Timberwolves defeated the Nuggets 4-2 to win the first-round series outright.
“Celtics. Celtics. But I bet the Knicks 4-1. I think they come through easy.”
The Knicks beat the Hawks in the first round, but the series ended 4-2, not the exact 4-1 result backed.
“Maybe, maybe pass attempts for May, uh, pretty good. Um that number should probably be around 32 and a half and I would probably take the over 30 and higher Okay Okay I would I like 30 and I like over 30 and a half past attempts for Drake Maye”
Drake Maye finished Super Bowl LX 27-of-43 passing, clearing the over 30.5 pass-attempts line. (Drake Maye: 43 pass attempts)
“look for this up-and-coming young American player to pull off the upset against Jasmine Paolini. Jovic is coming for her. She's about plus 110, plus 120 in market, and she's the dog of the day in my book.”
6-2, 7-6(3) — Iva Jovic beat Jasmine Paolini 6-2, 7-6(3) in the third round of the 2026 Australian Open (WTA).
“I do think Broncos will score enough points that this 42 and a half is in serious jeopardy I uh I don't want to put words in your mouth here but I'm going to interpret what you just said and then give you the opportunity to say if I'm right or not. And even if, just for our listeners and viewers, even if Drew confirms what I'm about to say, like always gamble responsibly. You don't have to agree with anything any of us say. So if you agree with Drew here, because it sounds to me like you're very confident in this, but I'll give you the opportunity to say that in a second. And if you want to bet, just please bet responsibly. So you say that you think that this is three points off and listening to you talk about it, it sounds like you love this bet. Like, is this going to be like for you, like a bigger bet than normal coming up with the over with the Patriots Broncos game? Not a bigger bet than normal, but my biggest bet of this. Yeah, my biggest bet this week. I don't have I don't have much on the side here. I think my my common my most common outcomes here are Patriots by three, four, six, seven. Right. So I'm right around this number. I don't think there's like a obvious, you know, obvious miss here on the side. I think the Patriots come through. I have Patriots futures, so I'm not inclined to add more at this price point. But I do think this total is low. And as far as like, I've been full staking a lot in the playoffs so far, which is rare for me. Usually like my futures book is what I'm trying to write in the playoffs because most of these teams are just solved and there's not a lot of markets that are bad. But I've been staking full stake for a lot of the playoffs so far over in this game is my only full stake bet.”
NE 10, DEN 7 — Patriots beat Broncos 10-7 in the AFC Championship; combined 17 points falls well short of the over 42.5 total.
“I added a little Rams even though I didn't need to. I didn't need to. I think I took my line plus 126. So, yeah, they need to come through for me.”
SEA 31, LAR 27 — Seahawks beat Rams 31-27 in the NFC Championship; Los Angeles Rams moneyline busts.
“I had bet a lot of Rams futures throughout the season, but to that point, that was my biggest stake. Nick, that was the last futures bet I made. I am naked Rams to win the Super Bowl right now.”
29-13 — The Los Angeles Rams did not reach Super Bowl LX; the Seattle Seahawks defeated the New England Patriots 29-13 to win it, so the Rams-to-win-the-Super-Bowl futures pick lost (ESPN).
“I bet some exactos Rams over Patriots. I think that's still very, very live.”
29-13 — The Rams did not reach Super Bowl LX at all, so the Rams-over-Patriots exacta could not hit; the Seahawks beat the Patriots 29-13 (ESPN).
“So I took Bears money line at plus 100.”
CHI 22, GB 16 — Bears beat Packers 22-16 in overtime, so the Bears moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“So I took the Jags on the money line. Plus 135 looks like a bettable number here.”
JAX 34, DEN 20 — Jaguars beat Broncos 34-20, so the Jacksonville moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“Knicks for me at minus two and a half is the look.”
NY 124, SA 113 — Knicks beat the Spurs 124-113 to win the NBA Cup, covering -2.5 (ESPN box score).
“I sold out to Seahawks minus 16. I'm getting that at plus money.”
18-16 — Seahawks beat Colts 18-16; Seattle's -16 spread busts (won by only 2). (ESPN box score)
“The Houston Texans laying nine and a half right now for the against the Cardinals is inexplicable to me.”
40-20 — Texans beat Cardinals 40-20; Houston covers -9.5. (ESPN box score)
“And I think that sets up an opportunity to play an over here again, continuing the theme of being against the market. This has come down into the 49, 49 and a half range”
35-31 — Bills beat Patriots 35-31 (66 combined); over 49.5 total covers. (ESPN box score)
“Lions, Rams, I'm on the Rams here. I sold out to six and a half for plus 20.”
41-34 — Rams beat Lions 41-34; Los Angeles covers -6.5. (ESPN box score)
“Oklahoma City Thunder's live win total at BetMGM is 70 and a half over or under. Five seconds. Easy over.”
Thunder finished the 2025-26 regular season 64-18, under the 70.5 win total. (ESPN standings) (Oklahoma City Thunder: 64 regular-season wins)
“And we're buying the Dallas Cowboys. Oh, here we go. is Cowboys team catching three the money line in the plus 150 range on Thursday night? No. That's not right. I think they're the better team than the Detroit Lions.”
DET 44, DAL 30 — The Lions beat the Cowboys 44-30 on Dec 4, 2025 (ESPN box score); Dallas's -14 margin busts the +3 spread.
“Guess what? We don't need three and a half points, Femi. We're winning this game outright. Oh, baby. Texans' money line in pocket at plus 157.”
HOU 20, KC 10 — The Texans beat the Chiefs 20-10 on Dec 7, 2025 (ESPN box score); Houston's moneyline cashes outright.
“So there's some exacto markets, and I bet some Lions finished third in the NFC North.”
The Lions finished the 2025 regular season 9-8, in 4th place in the NFC North behind the Bears (11-6), Packers (9-7-1), and Vikings (9-8) on tiebreakers (Wikipedia).
“So I fired under 52. I'm prepared to come back for more under at halftime”
DAL 31, KC 28 — Cowboys beat Chiefs 31-28 on Thanksgiving; combined 59 points busts the under 52 (ESPN).
“Chiefs should be the betting side at minus three.”
DAL 31, KC 28 — Cowboys beat Chiefs 31-28 on Thanksgiving; Chiefs lost outright, missing the -3 spread (ESPN).
“Yeah, who needs points when you're getting plus 260 with the better team? So Bears win on Friday. I think so.”
CHI 24, PHI 15 — Bears beat Eagles 24-15 on Nov 28, 2025; Bears moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“The biggest edge of the week, and it's not even close. Seattle Seahawks, 10 and a half against the Vikings.”
SEA 26, MIN 0 — Seahawks shut out Vikings 26-0; the 26-point margin comfortably covers -10.5 (ESPN).
“I laid six with the Dolphins.”
MIA 21, NO 17 — Dolphins beat Saints 21-17; the 4-point margin falls short of the -6 spread (ESPN).
“It took the Jets money line.”
NYJ 27, ATL 24 — Jets beat Falcons 27-24 on a game-winning field goal; Jets moneyline cashes (ESPN).
“And I am taking the Texans plus five.”
HOU 20, IND 16 — Texans beat Colts 20-16 outright, easily covering +5 (ESPN).
“New England Patriots, I laid eight and a half with them.”
26-20 — Patriots beat Bengals 26-20; New England's -8.5 margin of +6 busts.
“I can, and I did take Shadur at plus 3. I took plus 3, plus 103 here. And I really, you know, hopefully he has five attempts in this game, and we learn nothing about him, because this should hopefully come entirely down to the Cleveland Browns defense taking advantage of an absolutely lifeless offensive line right now for the Raiders.”
24-10 — Browns beat Raiders 24-10; Cleveland's +3 margin of +14 covers.
“what is your best bedroom for this week in the National Football League and why? You're catching me by surprise here. I didn't see this one coming. uh give me the panthers three and a half i think is a nice one”
CAR 30, ATL 27 — Panthers beat Falcons 30-27 in overtime; margin of victory (+3) covered the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, I was the buy low on Buffalo here. I hit that at 5-114.”
BUF 44, TB 32 — Bills beat Buccaneers 44-32; margin of victory (+12) covered the -5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Sure. I played over 47 and a half in the Berlin game with the Commies and the Dolphins.”
MIA 16, WSH 13 — Dolphins beat Commanders 16-13 in overtime in Madrid; combined score of 29 fell short of the 47.5 total (ESPN box score).
“So until Tucker Craft comes back, Green Bay is kind of, I think, an auto-click on the under for me. I played under 44 there. I sold down to an even plus 100.”
GB 27, NYG 20 — Packers beat Giants 27-20; combined score of 47 exceeded the 44 total, busting the under (ESPN box score).
“To end things here, Nick, your Knicks tonight, favorite bet on the board for me. I laid eight and a half with these guys.”
NY 133, MEM 120 — Knicks beat Grizzlies 133-120; margin of victory (+13) covered the -8.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“In that game, not backing the Seahawks, however, I like the under 46. That's the one bet that I'm going to hold on to with both hands, excited about seeing it play out.”
44-22 — Seahawks beat Cardinals 44-22; combined 66 points busts the under 46 (ESPN box score).
“Favorite side look is past money line, past money line right now. I don't know what it is currently. I played it this morning at plus one 35.”
28-23 — Patriots beat Buccaneers 28-23; moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“I mentioned Colts minus six.”
31-25 — Colts beat Falcons 31-25 in OT; the 6-point margin exactly matches the -6 line, so it pushes (ESPN box score).
“I have a small bet on the Raiders plus eight and a half on Thursday Night Football.”
10-7 — Broncos beat Raiders 10-7; Las Vegas loses by 3, covering the +8.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'll make a case for the Jacksonville Jaguars here at plus 108 on the money line versus the Texans.”
36-29 — Texans beat Jaguars 36-29; moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“The Lakers win the Pacific.”
Lakers finished 53-29 to clinch the 2025-26 Pacific Division (ESPN standings). (Lakers 53-29 (.646), Pacific Division champions)
“Broncos money line against the Texans market against me here. I played, I waited until it flipped this morning and I was a little like, well, if you're going to give me an even better number on Broncos, I guess I'll take them.”
18-15 — Broncos beat Texans 18-15 on a last-second field goal; moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“And I played Giants Moneyline at plus 135.”
24-34 — 49ers beat Giants 34-24; Giants moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“put a lot of Mahomes MVP in when Josh Allen was a healthy favorite.”
Matthew Stafford won the 2025 AP NFL MVP award over Drake Maye, not Patrick Mahomes.
“I already have a lot of skin in them. You know, equity, future equity for AFC, for Mahomes, MVP, all of it kind of riding on them getting this outcome.”
The New England Patriots won the 2025-26 AFC Championship (beating Denver 10-7) to reach Super Bowl LX, not the Chiefs.
“I took Titans 10, which is kind of hard to get right now. It's kind of moving to nine and a half.”
20-27 — Chargers beat Titans 27-20; Titans covered the +10 spread (ESPN box score).
“I am in at minus three and a half, minus one thirteen. Oh, sorry. Plus plus plus three and a half, minus one thirteen.”
DEN 44, DAL 24 — Broncos beat Cowboys 44-24; Dallas lost by 20, busting the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So 7.5 in pocket with the Panthers, to me, looks like a fine play.”
BUF 40, CAR 9 — Bills beat Panthers 40-9; Carolina lost by 31, busting the +7.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“So I sold out to five and a half here with the Buccaneers.”
TB 23, NO 3 — Buccaneers beat Saints 23-3, winning by 20 to cover the -5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to work with the Texans. I laid minus one, minus 103.”
HOU 26, SF 15 — Texans beat 49ers 26-15, winning by 11 to cover the -1 spread (ESPN box score).
“I played Rockets plus seven minus 104.”
OKC 125, HOU 124 — Rockets lost 125-124 in 2OT to Thunder, losing by only 1 to cover the +7 spread (ESPN box score).
“my actual bet was over 43 and a half, and the juice I laid was minus 103.”
CIN 33, PIT 31 — Bengals beat Steelers 33-31 on Oct 16, 2025; combined 64 points clears the over 43.5 (ESPN).
“I laid minus 113 on Giants plus seven.”
DEN 33, NYG 32 — Broncos beat Giants 33-32 on Oct 19, 2025; New York's -1 margin covers the +7 line (ESPN).
“I laid Chargers minus one at minus one ten.”
IND 38, LAC 24 — Colts beat Chargers 38-24 on Oct 19, 2025; Los Angeles lost outright, busting the -1 moneyline-style spread (ESPN).
“Lions minus four and a half. I laid minus one twelve.”
DET 24, TB 9 — Lions beat Buccaneers 24-9 on Oct 20, 2025; Detroit's +15 margin covers -4.5 (ESPN).
“And then Panthers minus two. I laid minus one eight.”
CAR 13, NYJ 6 — Panthers beat Jets 13-6 on Oct 19, 2025; Carolina's +7 margin covers -2 (ESPN).
“Chiefs set up pretty well here to either steal the one seed, which is, by the way, 8-1. Like, the Super Bowl price for the Chiefs is plus 650. Just give me Chiefs one seed and then let the chips fall however they may.”
Broncos 14-3, AFC #1 seed — The Denver Broncos finished 14-3 and earned the AFC's #1 seed for 2025, not the Kansas City Chiefs (ESPN standings).
“Commanders plus 225 NFC East, a bet for you? Yeah, I think that's the best team in the East”
Eagles 11-6 (NFC East champs); Commanders 5-12 — The Philadelphia Eagles won the 2025 NFC East at 11-6, not the Washington Commanders, who finished 5-12 (ESPN standings).
“Saints plus three and a half.”
NE 25, NO 19 — Patriots beat Saints 25-19; the Saints spread pick busts.
“Niners can probably win this one outright, but I just took the plus three minus 114,”
TB 30, SF 19 — Buccaneers beat 49ers 30-19; the 49ers spread pick busts.
“than the Jags on a neutral field. So I will take the money line at plus 100 in Jacksonville.”
SEA 20, JAX 12 — Seahawks beat Jaguars 20-12; the Seahawks moneyline wins.
“Happy to have four and a half in pocket.”
CHI 25, WSH 24 — Bears beat Commanders 25-24; the Bears spread pick covers.
“Seven points against the Colts. Come on. Seven points.”
40-6 — Colts beat Raiders 40-6; Raiders +7 lost by 34, doesn't cover (ESPN).
“I did bet just for the record plus three minus 115.”
37-22 — Cowboys beat Jets 37-22; Jets +3 lost by 15, doesn't cover (ESPN).
“as long as we're kind of in this dead zone at around minus one and a half, I think that's still a fair play.”
27-24 — Panthers beat Dolphins 27-24 on a late TD after trailing by 17; Panthers -1.5 covers by 1.5 (ESPN).
“So under 47 for me on Thursday Night Football”
26-23 — 49ers beat Rams 26-23 in overtime; combined 49 points is over the total, Under 47 lost (ESPN).
“So over 50 was a pretty fast and easy play for me on Sunday night football this week.”
23-20 — Patriots beat Bills 23-20 on a last-second field goal; combined 43 points is under the total, Over 50 lost (ESPN).
“i have some speculative money line on the texans this week”
44-10 — Texans beat Ravens 44-10; the Texans moneyline won (ESPN).
“Well, the market says my best bet was Jets plus seven and a half because that is now six and a half, trending six.”
TB 29, NYJ 27 — Buccaneers beat Jets 29-27 (Jets lost by 2); Jets +7.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“I thought for sure I had a good number when the Titans finally hit plus three and a half and it was flat. That's drifted to where it looks like that's going to four.”
IND 41, TEN 20 — Colts beat Titans 41-20 (Titans lost by 21); Titans +3.5 does not cover (ESPN box score).
“My numbers right now don't love the Patriots. I think they're a minus team overall. But the gap between the Steelers and the Patriots is nil, and the fact that Patriots have some home field advantage here I think is enough for me to get involved on the money line.”
PIT 21, NE 14 — Steelers beat Patriots 21-14; Patriots moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“I think the Texans are still the better team overall. I think that even with home field advantage, I would make Texans a small favorite here. So I took them on the plus money”
JAX 17, HOU 10 — Jaguars beat Texans 17-10; Texans moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“If you can still get a three, don't walk, run to the window for the three. I think Browning and company are going to be just fine against this Vikings team.”
MIN 48, CIN 10 — Vikings beat Bengals 48-10 (Bengals lost by 38); Bengals +3 does not cover (ESPN box score).
“And the fact that you're getting six and a half points with the Jets right now, that would be my one bet if you said I could only have one on the board.”
BUF 30-10 NYJ — Bills beat Jets 30-10; Jets +6.5 lost the game by 20.
“And I think under 40 is the bet in that one.”
SEA 31-17 PIT — Seahawks beat Steelers 31-17; combined 48 points busts the under 40.
“So I did lay the two and a half with the Packers.”
GB 27, DET 13 — Packers beat Lions 27-13, a 14-point margin that easily covered the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“that game stays under the total of 44.”
LAR 14, HOU 9 — Rams beat Texans 14-9 (combined 23); the under 44 total won (ESPN box score).
“Biggest bet of the week for me, Baltimore Ravens.”
BUF 41, BAL 40 — Bills beat Ravens 41-40; the Ravens moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“Most recent bet that I made today was Brown's fewest wins.”
Cleveland Browns finished the 2025 regular season 5-12, not the league's fewest wins; the Raiders, Jets, and Titans tied for fewest at 3-14, so the Browns-fewest-wins bet lost. (Cleveland Browns: 5 wins; fewest wins: Raiders/Jets/Titans, 3)
“And I think they are going to ultimately take home the title of most regular season wins. And I took a piece of that at plus 350.”
Buffalo Bills finished the 2025 regular season 12-5, not the league's most wins; the Broncos, Patriots, and Seahawks tied for the league high at 14-3, so the Bills-most-wins bet lost. (Buffalo Bills: 12 wins; most wins: Broncos/Patriots/Seahawks, 14)
“Well, I think I only have one Super Bowl bet at all, and it was Niners. And I bet it 18 to 1.”
SEA 29, NE 13 — The Seattle Seahawks beat the New England Patriots 29-13 to win Super Bowl LX; the San Francisco 49ers did not.
“Carlos Alcaraz, I believe, hoists his third Wimbledon trophy at the end of this week. And that's the only bet I've made in all of the men's side of this tournament.”
Jannik Sinner defeated Carlos Alcaraz 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 in the 2025 Wimbledon men's singles final on July 13, 2025; Alcaraz did not win.
“in the futures market, it's Nugs and Hawks are sort of the lotto tickets that I got.”
The New York Knicks won the 2025-26 NBA championship, beating the San Antonio Spurs 4-1 (clinching Game 5, 94-90, on June 13, 2026); the Denver Nuggets did not win.
“in the futures market, it's Nugs and Hawks are sort of the lotto tickets that I got.”
The New York Knicks won the 2025-26 NBA championship, beating the San Antonio Spurs 4-1 (clinching Game 5, 94-90, on June 13, 2026); the Atlanta Hawks did not win.
“So I'm into Kneppel under five and a half. I bet it from minus 115 out to minus 158.”
Kon Knueppel was selected 4th overall by the Charlotte Hornets at the 2025 NBA Draft (Wikipedia 2025 NBA Draft page), under the 5.5 line. (selected 4th overall)
“I got a couple of bigger prices on him to go exactly fourth.”
Kon Knueppel was selected exactly 4th overall by the Charlotte Hornets at the 2025 NBA Draft (Wikipedia 2025 NBA Draft page). (selected 4th overall)
“And I took some long shot prices on ACE Bailey to be the sixth overall pick. I have plus six 50 plus five 76 and plus five 13 on that outcome.”
Ace Bailey was selected 5th overall by the Utah Jazz at the 2025 NBA Draft (Wikipedia 2025 NBA Draft page), not exactly 6th. (selected 5th overall)
“I have a bet on the under. My fair total is 222. So surprise, this got bet up into the 225 range, but I will take it.”
OKC 120, IND 109 — OKC beat Indiana 120-109 in Game 5, a combined 229 points, over the 225 total (ESPN box score).
“So here's what I want to do. I want to get your thought on who's going to win the women's French Open. And then we want to do the men. And I want to clear that in a couple of minutes here. So we have enough time to do NBA finals. But you have me. You have me into this right now. So just based on your analysis, right? And you know way more about this than me, like more than almost anybody out there. right when it comes to hand it doesn't mean the bets are going to win, but you know what you're talking about. So I'm looking at that MGM at the screen right now. I don't know who this person is boss all boss. What's all? She's the only one without a chance. If we're doing a draft, if we're doing the draft, she's the eighth pick. She's 66 to one. So then we go to Svitolina and Madison keys are both at 16 to one. Like based on what you said, if the margins are so thin, then perhaps the best course of action is two. lightly. I just love that line from Breaking Bad. Perhaps the best course of action is to take like the longest shots. Agree or disagree? Like who's going to win the women's side? Who should we bet in like, seriously? No, this is important. In like 30 seconds so we can do men and then NBA finals. Yeah. So the, the, because again, like to get your, to get a price home, they not, they don't just have to have an upset in, in the quarterfinals. They're going to have to face a very tough player in the semis and a very tough player in the finals. And so if you really have your heart set on Madison Keys, who, by the way, is the only slam winner of this calendar year so far. She won the Australian Open. So she has the she has the goods. She's playing with confidence. But like, you know, even, you know, she has to beat Coco. Then she's going to have to be Mira. Then she's going to have to be Sabalenka like that rollover price for me is going to be higher than 16 to one. So I think realistically, if you think there's still going to be chaos that could unfold here, every woman, whoever, whoever wins this is going to have to do it themselves. There is no easy path anymore, right? Like usually when you're praying in the futures market, you're praying on chaos, unlocking some path where even if your player doesn't, you know, create the upset themselves, they're getting equity from some player being upset. And that's just there's just no no way that that happens right now. And I will say this. Svitolina is probably a pass at price just because of how much time she spent on court and how hard she's had to play to get to this stage. Right. She can be eager tomorrow morning. absolutely no question in my mind she's playing that well but then turning around and beating Sabalenka is a tough ask then turning around and beating Coco Agoff that is a tough ask so I think Savitalina is a toss I think Keyes is probably a toss even though you know the prices are good Zhenxing Wen is almost surely a toss because I think she is a bet against for uh in her quarter final match against Sabalenka um and uh I ultimately think Iga spent too much time and you know took too much damage against uh uh Rabacana in that round four match to to be able to go win, win, win here. So for me, it's still between Sabalenka, Andreeva, and Goff. And between those three women, Goff is the best price at four to one. And she does have a head-to-head, you know, impressive head-to-head resume against Andreeva, who she would play in the semifinals. So I'm sitting on Goff at pretty close to the same price from pre-tournament. You know, things have barely moved because, again, no one has lost.”
Coco Gauff won the 2025 French Open women's singles title, beating Aryna Sabalenka 6-7(5), 6-2, 6-4 in the final. (Gauff def. Sabalenka 6-7(5), 6-2, 6-4 in the final.)
“Yeah, the only big, big time match skin that I got in the next two days is Veronika Kudermetova over Barbora Krachikova. Obviously household names. Kudermatova over Krachikova. What a wonderful phrase. What a wonderful phrase. It means no worries for the rest of our days. I watched a lot of philosophy. That's a wonderful rendition. Well done, fellas. But yeah, Krishikova was your Wimbledon champion last year. She has been wildly out of form in that we have only really seen her play one match since the end of last year. And her win in round one was hugely problematic. She cannot move. And Kudermatova is a darn good player. She really only loses to the elite on tour. And I think this is a bad draw for Krishikova. So I, this opened up like around minus 160 and my fair prices were like minus 400. So I bet that one as hard as I could get it everywhere I could get it”
Veronika Kudermetova beat Barbora Krejcikova in the second round of the 2025 French Open (Wikipedia Barbora Krejcikova article confirms the second-round loss to Kudermetova). Kudermetova won the match.
“I have Sinner at plus 250. I think his plus 210 price that you're seeing at MGM right now is a value play. And realistically, the margin between Sinner and Alcaraz is pretty narrow for me. So it's it. There is a world where Alcaraz stumbles and stubs his toe before he gets to the final. I think Sinner is more likely to be there waiting for him. But in that world, I do worry that Alcaraz has really kind of solved Sinner in a lot of ways. And we haven't really seen it the other way around. So be prepared to to be defeated in that final if it is Alcaraz Sinner. But to 200 or better, I think, is as a fine play on Sinner as he is. He would be my bet for the men's side.”
Carlos Alcaraz beat Jannik Sinner in the 2025 French Open men's singles final on June 8, 2025 (Wikipedia 2025 French Open Men's Singles article). Sinner did not win the title.
“[2:40:41] I think fair for game one is Nick's two and a half. [2:40:45] So I'm going to take four and a half here. [2:40:46] And I think that ultimately Pacers probably win in six.”
Pacers 138, Knicks 135 (OT) — Indiana beat New York 138-135 in overtime in Game 1, a 3-point margin, so the Pacers +4.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“[2:43:55] I think Sinner with the number one overall draw, cleaner path to the final [2:43:58] and the only guy that can beat him in this draw is Alcaraz. [2:44:01] So I'll take plus 175 there.”
Carlos Alcaraz defeated Jannik Sinner in the 2025 French Open final (4-6, 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-6(4), 7-6(2)), so the Sinner-to-win-title bet loses (Wikipedia). (Champion: Carlos Alcaraz d. Jannik Sinner)
“I took the three and a half with the Golden State for fear and have for no real margin there.”
GS 109, HOU 106 — Warriors beat Rockets 109-106 on Apr 28, 2025 (ESPN); Golden State's +3.5 spread covers by a 3-point margin.
“And then I took the eight and a half with Cleveland.”
CLE 138, MIA 83 — Cavaliers routed Heat 138-83 on Apr 28, 2025 (ESPN); Cleveland's +8.5 spread easily covers by a 55-point margin.
“[2:45:08] pretty narrow. Best bet of today [2:45:10] and tomorrow for my money is Detroit [2:45:12] plus five and a half.”
DET 106, NY 103 — Pistons beat Knicks 106-103 on Apr 29, 2025 (ESPN); Detroit's +5.5 spread covers, winning outright by 3.
“I took the play on the over 221”
NY 94, DET 100 — Pistons beat the Knicks 100-94 in Game 1 (ESPN box score); combined 194 fails to clear the over 221.
“I bet the Bucks”
The Indiana Pacers eliminated the Milwaukee Bucks 4-1 in the 2025 NBA first-round series (Wikipedia/ESPN), so the Bucks-to-win-series futures bet loses.
“I bet the Clippers”
The Denver Nuggets eliminated the Los Angeles Clippers 4-3 in the first round, winning Game 7 on May 3, 2025 (Wikipedia/ESPN), so the Clippers-to-win-series futures bet loses.
“Duke as 9.5 point chalk is wild to me. Arizona is an extremely good team.”
100-93 — Duke beat Arizona 100-93; Arizona's 7-point loss covers the +9.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I certainly like the seven points with Maryland.”
87-71 — Florida beat Maryland 87-71, a 16-point margin that busts Maryland's +7 spread (ESPN box score).
“I've made some bets on them to win the Pacific division at some bigger prices.”
The Los Angeles Lakers won the 2024-25 NBA Pacific Division on tiebreaker while tied 50-32 with the Clippers; Golden State finished third at 48-34 and did not win the division (Wikipedia: 2024-25 NBA season standings).
“Barkley MVP. I think that's an even better bet than Eagles money line because if the Eagles win, it's because Barkley cracks the run defense.”
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts was named Super Bowl LIX MVP after Philadelphia's 40-22 win over Kansas City; Saquon Barkley did not win MVP.
“I bet the Thunder at 10. That's out to 16.”
OKC 125, MIL 96 — Thunder beat the Bucks 125-96 (margin +29), covering -10.
“But the fact that Eagles firm today, I had to play them. I'm in five and a half minus 108.”
55-23 — Eagles beat Commanders 55-23 in the NFC Championship, winning by 32 points, easily covering -5.5 (ESPN box score).
“Alcaraz. I'm all in on him just outright from pre-tournament. Not hedging a dime now.”
Jannik Sinner defeated Alexander Zverev 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-3 to win the 2025 Australian Open men's singles title; Alcaraz did not win the title (ESPN).
“It sets up well for under 47 and a half for the full game. My fair is 46 and a half.”
27-9 — Rams beat Vikings 27-9 (combined 36 points) on Jan 13, 2025, under the 47.5 total, per ESPN box score.
“My biggest futures position right now across the board is Ravens, knowing that this was going to be a matchup that they were going to have to get done on the road.”
The Ravens were eliminated in the Divisional Round, losing 27-25 to the Bills on Jan 19, 2025; the Philadelphia Eagles won Super Bowl LIX 40-22 over Kansas City on Feb 9, 2025, per NFL.com.
“I ultimately would expect that the Chiefs win this one and they win by one score. But I'll be taking eight points with the Texans.”
23-14 — Chiefs beat Texans 23-14 on Jan 18, 2025, a 9-point Texans loss that fails to cover Texans +8, per ESPN box score.
“i allocated all my capital to the under 45 and a half there”
BAL 28, PIT 14 — Ravens beat Steelers 28-14 in the AFC Wild Card game on Jan 11, 2025; the combined score is well under 45.5 (ESPN box score).
“I don't mind plus three 115 at all.”
HOU 32, LAC 12 — Texans beat Chargers 32-12 in the AFC Wild Card game on Jan 11, 2025; Houston's margin covers Texans +3 (ESPN box score).
“happily get in bed with the Buffalo Bills. Nine points is too low.”
BUF 31, DEN 7 — Bills beat Broncos 31-7 in the AFC Wild Card game on Jan 12, 2025; Buffalo's margin covers Bills -9 (ESPN box score).
“I think this is pretty clearly one where you just look for an under 45 and a half for the game.”
PHI 22, GB 10 — Eagles beat Packers 22-10 in the NFC Wild Card game on Jan 12, 2025; the combined score is under 45.5 (ESPN box score).
“i have a bunch of lamar okay i have i have boatloads of lamar”
Josh Allen won the 2024 AP NFL MVP award at NFL Honors, edging Lamar Jackson 383-362 in voting points; Jackson did not win.
“is Texans at plus three and a half.”
23-14 — Texans beat Titans 23-14 (ESPN final), winning outright by 9 and covering Houston +3.5.
“Very, very much agree with you on that. I'll go to war with once and 10 points.”
0-38 — Broncos routed the Chiefs 38-0 (ESPN final); Kansas City lost by 38, well outside the +10 line, so the pick busts.
“I will be taking the three points with the Broncos.”
34-27 — Chargers beat Broncos 34-27 (margin +7), so Denver +3 did not cover (ESPN).
“best bet for week 15 it is indianapolis colts catching four points in denver”
31-13 — Broncos beat Colts 31-13; Indianapolis lost by 18, well outside the +4 line (ESPN box score).
“you're going to give me three points with the Seahawks. I'll take them”
30-13 — Packers beat Seahawks 30-13; Seattle lost by 17, well outside the +3 line (ESPN box score).
“My fair price is four So I was happy to take five and a half”
DEN 41, CLE 32 — Broncos beat Browns 41-32 on Dec 2, 2024; Cleveland's 9-point loss failed to cover +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“if you're going to give me three and a half points I'll take it So Green Bay Packers for me on Thursday”
DET 34, GB 31 — Lions beat Packers 34-31 on Dec 5, 2024; Green Bay's 3-point loss covered the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Fraud bowl is fun, but I think it's more just, yeah, it's circumstantial that these two teams are where they are in the standings, obviously. But that said, like, you know, there's a lot of examples of all-time great quarterbacks who kind of won games they shouldn't and had strung together this run of absurd game-winning drives and got lucky on the other side of it, Peyton Manning comes to mind. But, yeah, six game-winning drives so far this season already for Mahomes. I don't think we're going to get a game-winning drive in this game because I think the Chiefs win by margin. I am on the other side of four here”
KC 19, LAC 17 — Chiefs beat Chargers 19-17 on Dec 8, 2024; Kansas City's 2-point win fell short of the -4 spread (ESPN box score).
“the bed of the week is, uh, is bears plus 10 and a half”
23-20 — Lions beat Bears 23-20 on Thanksgiving (ESPN); Chicago's 3-point loss covers +10.5.
“So I'd lay a 2.5 here with the Bengals.”
44-38 — Steelers beat Bengals 44-38 (ESPN); Cincinnati lost outright, failing to cover -2.5.
“I make the Chargers just outside of a three, and I'll happily leave the one with L.A.”
34-27 — Chargers beat Bengals 34-27 on J.K. Dobbins' late TD; Chargers -1 covered (ESPN).
“The Commanders at minus 2.5, my favorite look.”
28-27 — Steelers beat Commanders 28-27 (Wikipedia game log); Washington lost outright, so Commanders -2.5 loses regardless of cover.
“So Giants for me, plus six, wouldn't be shocked with them getting just an outright win.”
18-26 — Steelers beat Giants 26-18 on MNF (8-point margin), so Giants +6 did not cover (ESPN final).
“I think the Jets on Thursday night football are a bet at minus one.”
13-21 — Jets beat Texans 21-13 on TNF (8-point margin), so Jets -1 covered (ESPN final).
“I think nine points for the Broncos is too many.”
10-41 — Ravens beat Broncos 41-10 (31-point margin), so Broncos +9 did not cover (ESPN final).
“So I guess MGM has three right now, and it looks like a juicy three for the Lions. I'm ultimately probably going to play the Packers in this spot, even though I love everything the Lions are doing.”
24-14 — Lions beat Packers 24-14 (10-point margin), so Packers +3 did not cover (ESPN final).
“The Rams also stand out as a bet. I made a play on them at a pick.”
26-20 — Rams beat Seahawks 26-20 in overtime, so the Rams pick'em bet won outright (ESPN final).
“[1:55:24] I have the Bucs at three and a half in pocket.”
BAL 41, TB 31 — Baltimore beat Tampa Bay 41-31 on Oct 21, 2024; Tampa Bay's -10 margin fails to cover +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“[1:56:27] And then the bet that I made the market said was a good bet was the over 43 and a half in the night cap.”
ARI 17, LAC 15 — Arizona beat the Chargers 17-15 on Oct 21, 2024; combined 32 points misses the over 43.5 (ESPN box score).
“[1:57:48] I think the Rams should be more like one-and-a-half point dogs, [1:57:51] not three-point dogs to the Minnesota Vikings.”
LAR 30, MIN 20 — The Rams beat Minnesota 30-20 outright on Oct 24, 2024, easily covering +3 (ESPN box score).
“[2:00:07] with us I played some six last night I think this is one where uh I took a shot early because I”
SF 30, DAL 24 — San Francisco beat Dallas 30-24 on Oct 27, 2024; Dallas's -6 margin exactly pushes against +6 (ESPN box score).
“[2:05:21] I think the Detroit Pistons could make a run at a play in spot. I bet them to make the plan at plus [2:05:26] 350 today.”
Detroit finished the 2024-25 season as the East's No. 6 seed, clinching a direct playoff berth rather than participating in the play-in tournament (Wikipedia: 2024-25 Detroit Pistons season).
“[34:11] So I lean under and I bet the Jets money line.”
BUF 23, NYJ 20 — Bills beat Jets 23-20 on Oct 14, 2024; Jets moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“[2:03:40] Before we get to week six in the NFL, Drew, anything for you tonight, [2:03:44] Monday Night Football with the Saints and the Chiefs? [2:03:46] I leaned both Saints and under. [2:03:49] I ended up with a bet on the Saints once the dust settled. [2:03:52] I think I don't really have a strong opinion about which is better at current market numbers. [2:03:58] I got five and a half on the Saints and I have a little bet on 43 and a half up to the under. [2:04:03] I think this is going to be a closely contested game.”
Chiefs 26, Saints 13 — Chiefs beat Saints 26-13 (ESPN recap), a combined 39 points, under the 43.5 total, so the Under won.
“I have some money line as well in the plus 150 range.”
WAS 34, CLE 13 — Commanders beat Browns 34-13 on Oct 6, 2024; the Browns moneyline pick lost (ESPN box score).
“[1:47:44] Let's turn our attention to week four. [1:47:45] Well, huge game. [1:47:47] And Whale is one of the sharpest. [1:47:48] and that's why we love having him on early in the week [1:47:50] because he's got bets and has already gone through his process on the games. [1:47:54] Sunday Night Football, the Bills look like the best team in the league, 3-0. [1:47:58] Somehow find themselves, and I'm not saying the number's wrong, [1:48:01] two-and-a-half-point dogs on the road in Baltimore. [1:48:03] So Baltimore favored. [1:48:04] People might be surprised to hear that. [1:48:05] The Ravens are favored on Sunday night. [1:48:07] Total in the game is 46-and-a-half. [1:48:09] How are you looking to bet the Ravens and the Bills on Sunday Night Football? [1:48:13] Give me the MVP plus money on the money line. [1:48:17] happy happy happy happy to be involved with the bills in this spot um i know that there's obviously”
BAL 35, BUF 10 — Ravens beat Bills 35-10 on Sunday Night Football, so the Bills moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“[1:52:21] I laid this Texans at six.”
HOU 24, JAX 20 — Texans beat Jaguars 24-20, covering by only 4 points against the -6 line (ESPN box score).
“[1:57:36] the cowboys uh because of the giants injuries to the secondary uh so i'd laid five and a half there”
DAL 20, NYG 15 — Cowboys beat Giants 20-15, winning by 5, short of the -5.5 line (ESPN box score).
“[1:57:43] i think that number should be on the other side of six i laid the seven with the jets that just”
DEN 10, NYJ 9 — Broncos beat Jets outright 10-9, so the Jets -7 spread lost (ESPN box score).
“[2:08:27] Well, all right. So you like the bills on Thursday night outside of Buffalo. [2:08:30] What's your one favorite bet right now? Well, side or total for week two in the NFL. [2:08:35] In about a minute, we can save some time for other topics. [2:08:38] Yeah, it's it's really tough to pinpoint something with high confidence sidewise right now. [2:08:42] I can tell you that you're the best. You can do it. You can do it. [2:08:46] Sidewise. I said sidewise. The sides the sides look pretty snug, honestly. [2:08:52] Um, and, uh, and so I think really right now, the biggest, uh, miss prices are on the totals, [2:08:58] uh, and, uh, just for what it's worth, I have, you know, I think like, uh, the total in, um, [2:09:04] uh, chargers Carolina, I know that we share a little bit of a brain on this, but I'm closer [2:09:09] to 44 there. I'm just under 44 as far as projected total. So over 39 looks delightful to me. Um, [2:09:15] my biggest, uh, that is my biggest edge on the totals by margin. Um, I think, uh, you know,”
CAR 3, LAC 26 — Los Angeles Chargers beat Carolina 26-3; the combined 29 points fall short of the 39 total (ESPN box score).
“[2:12:01] Any bets for you Monday Night Football tonight? [2:12:04] 49ers, a three-and-a-half, four-point home favorite [2:12:06] against the Jets total in the 43 range. [2:12:09] Yeah, so I swung on Jets' money line for a couple of reasons. [2:12:12] I think a price point around three and a half is reasonable, [2:12:16] but there is definitely upside with both units here for the Jets, in my opinion. [2:12:20] Number one, the matchup of just elite defenses have been able to slow down Brock Purdy. [2:12:26] Obviously, the injuries and the lack of chemistry building through the preseason [2:12:30] because of the holdouts, I'm expecting going to have some shadow on the Niners offensively, [2:12:35] and I held the Jets up as the best defense in the NFL. [2:12:37] So hopefully they can keep the Niners contained, convert some of the Brock Purdy turnover-worthy plays into actual turnovers. [2:12:46] And at that point, the upside for the Jets' offense, I think, is pretty obvious. [2:12:50] The Niners' pass rush is just anemic right now outside of Nick Bosa. [2:12:53] You have holes at the linebacker's level and the safety level with key players missing. [2:12:58] And the Jets' investments in the offensive line and just in general talent at wide receiver and running back is intriguing enough to me [2:13:06] they expect that the jets could be able to put up a pretty nice uh you know out scoring output here [2:13:11] themselves tonight and uh so i took a swing on the upside uh on the money line and i think plus [2:13:16] 170 is still a battle member my friend always great seeing you here in vegas my only complaint”
SF 32, NYJ 19 — San Francisco beat the Jets 32-19 on Monday Night Football; Jets moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“[1:48:23] Anything else, ideally, aside, that's what the people like. [1:48:26] What's your favorite side bet right now? [1:48:28] Your one favorite side bet right now coming up for week one in the National Football League. [1:48:34] If I could only have one, give me the Texans at minus two and a half against the Colts. [1:48:40] Really, really, really fired up about this Texans team and how they match up against the Colts in this game. [1:48:47] I don't know if you guys caught sort of the cuts today, but the Texans like kept a lot of wide receivers and running backs on this roster [1:48:55] and still cut guys that will make other squads, [1:48:59] particularly in that wide receiver room, [1:49:01] which is just to say that they are absolutely loaded at the position. [1:49:05] I think the combination of Diggs, Dell, and Nico Collins in particular [1:49:09] is going to utterly exploit the key and obvious weakness of this Colts team, [1:49:14] which is their coverage. [1:49:16] And while certainly there were positives to take away from Anthony Richardson's [1:49:20] start against Bengals in week three of the preseason, [1:49:23] there were plenty of negatives as well.”
HOU 29, IND 27 — Texans beat Colts 29-27, a 2-point margin that misses the -2.5 spread.
“[1:53:39] Now, outside of the awards markets, [1:53:40] I do think there are some fun bets to be had. [1:53:44] I took somewhat recently [1:53:46] a bet into some of the superlatives here. [1:53:49] So most receiving yards by a rookie. [1:53:51] I'm in the Brian Thomas Jr. camp. [1:53:54] You can find some 16 to ones around there. [1:53:56] And I think his chemistry, [1:53:58] his chemistry is in particular with Trevor Lawrence. [1:54:00] Like if you didn't watch the preseason, then you don't know. [1:54:03] But if you did, then you do. [1:54:04] And that is looks like hand in glove, particularly as a deep threat for that offense. [1:54:11] I think I was at one point interested in Joe Burrow MVP buzz, [1:54:15] but with some of the potential for that defense to kind of take the Bengals out of kind of contention for first overall seed in the AFC, [1:54:23] I think it makes more sense to play Burrow in the most regular season passing yards market. [1:54:27] and the clear and obvious most passing touchdowns should be Mahomes right now. [1:54:34] A little confused as to why the market in general is not a little warmer on the Chiefs, [1:54:38] considering they have their second and third best players ready and available week one, [1:54:43] which they did not last year. [1:54:44] They're going to go 16-1, right? [1:54:46] I said this yesterday, Drew, not to steal your thunder. [1:54:49] How is Mahomes not the best bet on the board at Price to win MVP if they're going to go 15-2? [1:54:53] I don't want like I want you to talk here, but I literally think they're going to go like 15 and two or 16 and one. [1:54:59] Yeah, I did. Yeah, I honestly, I think the right time to buy is probably after that Bengals game week two.”
Brian Thomas Jr. led all 2024 NFL rookies with 1,282 receiving yards, ahead of Malik Nabers' 1,204. (Brian Thomas Jr.: 1,282 receiving yards)
“[1:56:15] 30 seconds so we can do US Open [1:56:17] okay, sure [1:56:18] uh i will uh let's see my second favorite probably jags plus three uh i actually sold down to three [1:56:25] plus 107 i think they could very realistically beat the dolphins um and uh one that i haven't [1:56:30] talked about except for just for save this just for the you better you bet listeners uh tennessee [1:56:36] titans tennessee titans are going to beat the bears i don't get this market at all four and a [1:56:42] half points is absurd uh i think the bears defense with no pass rush and the bears offense with the [1:56:47] offensive line injuries that they're sustaining this looks like a problem uh for the bears coming [1:56:51] out of the gate and i'm kind of shocked you can get plus 170 um i i love both of those and like [1:56:58] ken and i talked about those i don't know if ken was like the jaguars but we both definitely love [1:57:03] the time like how could you not like the titans against the bears in week one that number is [1:57:06] the freaking crazed based on nothing here's caleb williams laying four and a half at home no way [1:57:10] like that spoiler everybody titans plus four and a half will make the you better you bet card [1:57:14] coming up next week. [1:57:16] All right.”
MIA 20, JAX 17 — Dolphins beat Jaguars 20-17, a 3-point margin exactly matching the Jaguars +3 spread.
“[1:56:18] uh i will uh let's see my second favorite probably jags plus three uh i actually sold down to three [1:56:25] plus 107 i think they could very realistically beat the dolphins um and uh one that i haven't [1:56:30] talked about except for just for save this just for the you better you bet listeners uh tennessee [1:56:36] titans tennessee titans are going to beat the bears i don't get this market at all four and a [1:56:42] half points is absurd uh i think the bears defense with no pass rush and the bears offense with the [1:56:47] offensive line injuries that they're sustaining this looks like a problem uh for the bears coming [1:56:51] out of the gate and i'm kind of shocked you can get plus 170 um i i love both of those and like [1:56:58] ken and i talked about those i don't know if ken was like the jaguars but we both definitely love [1:57:03] the time like how could you not like the titans against the bears in week one that number is [1:57:06] the freaking crazed based on nothing here's caleb williams laying four and a half at home no way [1:57:10] like that spoiler everybody titans plus four and a half will make the you better you bet card [1:57:14] coming up next week. [1:57:16] All right. [1:57:16] We can group this into, [1:57:18] we have like three minutes here,”
CHI 24, TEN 17 — Bears beat Titans 24-17, a 7-point margin that misses the Titans +4.5 spread.
“[1:51:14] so that is going to be an incredibly dramatic final and i lean heavily for the u.s in that one [1:51:19] i think Regan Smith uh looks like she ready to pop in terms of having the best swim of her life from what I can see So I think she is the bet on in the women 100 backstroke”
Kaylee McKeown won the women's 100m backstroke gold in 57.33; Regan Smith took silver in 57.66. (Gold: Kaylee McKeown (57.33); Silver: Regan Smith (57.66))
“Carlos Alcaraz to win the gold in the Olympics is, uh, you know, that would basically make my, you know, from what I've already currently outlaid, that would make my tournament.”
Novak Djokovic beat Carlos Alcaraz in the final to win Olympic men's singles gold; Alcaraz won silver (Wikipedia). (Gold: Novak Djokovic; silver: Carlos Alcaraz)
“I've gotten a decent amount of skin in under 24 and a half golds now for france uh which uh i think is a pretty absurd price”
France won 16 gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics, below the 24.5 line (Wikipedia medal table). (France: 16 gold medals)
“So I got him in the eight to one range to win a hundred backstroke. It's getting bet down as I've kind of given this to some other folks to get into as well”
Thomas Ceccon won the men's 100m backstroke gold; Apostolos Christou finished 4th and did not medal (Wikipedia). (Gold: Thomas Ceccon; Christou finished 4th)
“Ooh, favorite overlook. The single game over. Give me Jags Dolphins 49 Yeah That one insane That should be like 51 and a half”
MIA 20, JAX 17 — Miami beat Jacksonville 20-17 in Week 1 2024, combined 37 points, under the 49 total (Wikipedia, citing the game recap).
“And she's going to finish in the world top 10 for the first time in her career. at the end of this year. And it's cool to see. And she'll be a tough test for either Ostapenko or Rabacana in the final. So I'm on Ostapenko. She's my last runner left. And I think she can still get it done. Six to one, I feel like, is a very favorable price. Because for me, a Rabacana-Ostapenko head-to-head in the semifinal is very narrow. It is not a big advantage, Rabacana, as the market would imply with the current prices. And honestly, I like Ostapenko's quarterfinal a heck of a lot better than I like Rabacana's. Robacana is going to have a tougher time with Svitolina than Ostapenko is going to have with Kurchikova, in my opinion. So I think ultimately this is going to be a pretty nice opportunity for Ostapenko to kind of do what should have come a long time in the past, where she kind of makes another deep, deep run into a slam level tournament because she has that kind of quality. And she's, you know, she looks great right now. So Ostapenko for me, and I'll call it, she gets by Robacana in a clean 2-0 kill, and then she gets it done 2-1 against Paolini in the final.”
Barbora Krejčíková beat Jeļena Ostapenko in the Wimbledon 2024 women's quarterfinal, eliminating her before the final (WTA Tennis).
“I like the Dutch. Color me unimpressed with the three lions team Gakpo. I'm all on on team Gakpo. I got a man. I got a man of the tournament. Gakpo 11 to one when Dutch were like six to one to win the title. And you're like, huh? Like if the Dutch win, it's clearly going to Gakpo. And yeah, that would be that would be just a sweet way to end the the Euro tournament. But yeah, excited for the rematch of the 2010 World Cup final between Spain and Netherlands.”
UEFA officially named Spain's Rodri, not Cody Gakpo, the EURO 2024 Player of the Tournament (UEFA.com).
“I'm with you. I swung away on Castle just because like he, you know, we got news that he was going to Atlanta to work out and you're just like, okay, well, he's going to work out. They haven't made their decision up yet. He fits like he's, he's kind of exactly in the mold of a Jalen Brown type of player. Oh yeah. By the way, the Jalen Brown who just won finals MVP, a guy who, you know, didn't shoot three point well in college and can lock down point of attack defense and, you know, provide, you know, kind of the perfect, you know, he's six, seven, he's huge as far as, you know, being able to create as far a point guard shooting guard. So, yeah, I think Castles is live to go one overall. And I bet into it at 100 to one. But we don't really have.”
The Atlanta Hawks selected Zaccharie Risacher first overall in the 2024 NBA Draft; Stephon Castle went 4th to San Antonio, so the first-overall bet lost. (No. 1 overall: Zaccharie Risacher; Castle No. 4)
“Yeah, the standout unit that's kind of flying under the radar. And this isn't even really, I don't even really know that this is that original of a thought. But France is going to concede like three goals in this tournament, maybe. Like that defense, and particularly the defensive midfield combined with good goalkeeping, you know, that goalkeeper, just a brilliant save against Austria in the first match. like France is going to be extremely tough to score against uh and as they kind of gel and get you know more playing time together and and uh really just Dechamps just general vision for how he wants to run this team in international play all of it looks I mean like good luck scoring on France I'm probably I'm gonna play team total under half a goal for every opponent in the group stage and then carry that through and see how long I will ride because I just don't see anybody scoring on these guys. I think England's still broadly overrated, although we have no idea what their”
0-0 — Netherlands and France drew 0-0, so Netherlands' team total stayed under 0.5 goals (ESPN).
“Yeah, the standout unit that's kind of flying under the radar. And this isn't even really, I don't even really know that this is that original of a thought. But France is going to concede like three goals in this tournament, maybe. Like that defense, and particularly the defensive midfield combined with good goalkeeping, you know, that goalkeeper, just a brilliant save against Austria in the first match. like France is going to be extremely tough to score against uh and as they kind of gel and get you know more playing time together and and uh really just Dechamps just general vision for how he wants to run this team in international play all of it looks I mean like good luck scoring on France I'm probably I'm gonna play team total under half a goal for every opponent in the group stage and then carry that through and see how long I will ride because I just don't see anybody scoring on these guys. I think England's still broadly overrated, although we have no idea what their”
1-1 — France and Poland drew 1-1, with Lewandowski scoring a penalty for Poland, so Poland's team total exceeded 0.5 goals (ESPN).
“So leaning Boston that price and leaning over, taking Porzingis out of this game, for me, takes the total from 215.5 to 216.3. And that is not the way the market reacted to Porzingis being unavailable, which is surprising. And I think just intuitively, the more Al Horford is on the floor, the more he could be targeted. You can absolutely cook that guy in certain settings. And just in general, expecting that the key adjustment for the Mavericks is going to be play better role players play better well when you're at home like yeah that that tends to happen to a degree um and i know i kind of look through the adjustments of well what would boss you know what would dallas be able to do in terms of really kind of mixing things up to kind of try to ameliorate their most significant weakness to this point in the series which has been shot making uh it's probably playing with a little bit of a smaller set and try to out five out boston using PJ Washington as the five, getting Tim Hardaway or Hardy some minutes as far as scoring production wouldn't shock me here. To me, that turns this into a track meet where 215 is, you know, just your 214 and a half currently just gets blown away. So leaning over, well, I played the over, I shouldn't say leaning over. I played over 214 and a half and leaning Boston, but sitting on enough Boston equity that I'm just going to ride it up. Who's going to win finals MVP?”
BOS 106, DAL 99 — Boston beat Dallas 106-99 in Game 3, a combined 205 points, under the 214.5 total.
“I took a, I took Croatia four 50 in B, uh, just because again, like I thought the margins were pretty narrow and the fact that Paris is going to be available, I think is pretty sick for Croatia. So they, they may, they may be, they may have one last international type of run in them. I know they're more of a World Cup team than a Euro team, but whatever the case is, they have a sick midfield. So that'll be a fun head-to-head between Spain and Croatia, by the way. That'll be a must-watch. And I tend to agree with you that Italy probably finishes third in that group. I have some—they have these unique markets where you can just pick the top two in any order, and I have some Spain and Croatia there. And then I like—in Group A, it's pretty clear to me that that's Germany to lose.”
Spain won Euro 2024 Group B (9 pts); Croatia finished 3rd (2 pts) and did not win the group.
“That'll be a must-watch. And I tend to agree with you that Italy probably finishes third in that group. I have some—they have these unique markets where you can just pick the top two in any order, and I have some Spain and Croatia there. And then I like—in Group A, it's pretty clear to me that that's Germany to lose.”
Euro 2024 Group B's top two were Spain and Italy; Croatia finished 3rd, so the Spain/Croatia top-two bet loses.
“And then I like—in Group A, it's pretty clear to me that that's Germany to lose. I like Scotland to finish last there. I think Switzerland is suspect. So Germany, Hungary in the one, two, in exact order, one, two, two advances in my book. Group C, I think England is pretty clearly the best team in there. And I like Slovenia as the second best team. There's arguments to be made that Denmark and Serbia could finish second, but Slovenia has elite striking and maybe the best goalkeeper in the entire tournament. So I took England, yeah, England over Slovenia. I had group C is a fun one.”
Scotland finished last in Euro 2024 Group A with 1 point, behind Germany, Switzerland, and Hungary.
“And then I like—in Group A, it's pretty clear to me that that's Germany to lose. I like Scotland to finish last there. I think Switzerland is suspect. So Germany, Hungary in the one, two, in exact order, one, two, two advances in my book. Group C, I think England is pretty clearly the best team in there. And I like Slovenia as the second best team. There's arguments to be made that Denmark and Serbia could finish second, but Slovenia has elite striking and maybe the best goalkeeper in the entire tournament. So I took England, yeah, England over Slovenia. I had group C is a fun one.”
Germany won Euro 2024 Group A, but Switzerland finished 2nd (5 pts), not Hungary (3rd, 3 pts).
“Group C, I think England is pretty clearly the best team in there. And I like Slovenia as the second best team. There's arguments to be made that Denmark and Serbia could finish second, but Slovenia has elite striking and maybe the best goalkeeper in the entire tournament. So I took England, yeah, England over Slovenia. I had group C is a fun one.”
England won Euro 2024 Group C, but Denmark finished 2nd on tiebreaker, not Slovenia (3rd).
“Group D, Poland is pretty clearly the worst team. Austria to me, I think with the injuries So Netherlands is the second best team. So I have a little France over Austria in group D and then group E. I took a swing on Ukraine at price.”
Austria won Euro 2024 Group D (6 pts) with France 2nd (5 pts) — the reverse of the bet's France-first/Austria-second order.
“I took a swing on Ukraine at price. I think Ukraine is good enough to catch the Belgians sleeping. I don't know if you know this, but the Belgian, the world's best goalkeeper, not here for the Belgian team. Do you know why? Yeah. Do you tell the story? It's good. Yeah. Just in the interest of time, basically like a situation with like a teammate's like wife or girlfriend And we can leave it at that and Drew can continue Peebo Courtois Politics Politics Yeah politics belgium belgium kind of giving up some some sneakers and some surprises and getting caught by ukraine especially with ukraine like the x factor for ukraine all of those guys are playing to get out of ukraine uh so you're going to get a more than just a hey we're doing this for country they they all have very sincere reasons to show out for every minute that they are on the pitch so ukraine go go get them go in group e uh and then f looks like portugal pretty squarely to me uh and uh just in general a lot of”
Ukraine finished 4th in Euro 2024 Group E (all four teams tied on 4 points, split by tiebreakers); Romania won the group.
“group e uh and then f looks like portugal pretty squarely to me uh and uh just in general a lot of bad defensive teams so i think group f is just going to be a goal scoring bonanza and i took portugal to have the most goals because they look like a semi-finalist from my account yeah just i think the portugal to score the most a very very popular like a very very like the price”
Portugal was eliminated in the quarterfinal (scoreless draws/penalty shootouts in the round of 16 and QF) finishing with only 5 goals for the whole tournament, nowhere near the tournament's top scoring team; eventual champion Spain scored far more across a full run to the title. (Portugal: 5 goals total (0 in the knockout rounds))
“in the tournament like 10 seconds for the answer easy easy look uh and bapé for me um i done that There's nothing more complicated than France's, I think, the most likely finalist out of anyone here because their paths and just in general, their supremacy over over England looks realistic for me. And, you know, England, France is a likely semifinal France to the final is likely. And I think I have France in playing the most matches in this tournament, pretty high probability. Therefore, Mbappe being the guy is is an easy look. Well, I want to ask you to stay on for another second, but you're already you're already generous with your time.”
The Euro 2024 Golden Boot was shared at 3 goals by Kane, Mikautadze, Musiala, Gakpo, Schranz, and Olmo; Mbappe was not among them and did not win. (Golden Boot leaders: 3 goals each (Kane, Mikautadze, Musiala, Gakpo, Schranz, Olmo))
“Yeah, I don't think four and a half is fair. I haven't thought that this series game by game has been fair, really, from Jump Street. and kind of waiting on confirmation one way or the other on Derek Lively because I do think he matters before making a play on a side here. Similarly, on the total, I think if I had to make a play on the total, leaning over 209.5, making a play on the side, I'm taking the 4.5 points with the Mavericks. But, yeah, I mean, I think my fair four Mavs at full strength in Minnesota is 3.5. It's been, you know, I've been on the road team for most of this series just because I feel like these are both very capable teams of taking their style of play on the road. And there's kind of conventional playoff basketball home court pricing”
MIN 103, DAL 124 — Dallas won Game 5 124-103, a 21-point margin that covers Mavericks +4.5 (ESPN box score).
“but all told, I look at the Bengals schedule and I just see it's set up in a way that this team can absolutely get out to a hot start. I love that they kind of retained defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. I liked what they did in free agency in the draft to address the big questions and issues with that roster overall. I like the potential opportunity for Joe Burrow to get a fully healthy offseason and preseason for the first time in his career to help kind of vibe with this new offense and the new offensive line. And I think, you know, that all kind of stews together to where the Bengals, you know, correctly priced, maybe a little bit, you know, short of my price to get the one seed in the AFC right now. And I think 13 or 14 wins for them, even as, you know, kind of entrenched as a team that's expected to win double digits. You know, I think they can show up enough to where Zac Taylor gets consideration for coach of the year. And so I think, you know, a bet by proxy for the Bengals to be the one seed in the AFC or to win the AFC North, a competitive AFC North is taking Zac Taylor 25 to one because that number doesn't check out if this team kind of reaches their potential. A lot of good stuff there. Drew, want to pivot over to the NBA with you. Huge game six tonight between the Wolves and the Nuggets. Any bets for you there in that game tonight?”
Kevin O'Connell, not Zac Taylor, won the AP NFL Coach of the Year award for the 2024 season. (Winner: Kevin O'Connell)
“It's not a very strong play, but this is just sort of, you know, it's to me at least the T-Wolves, I don't think that you all of a sudden are coming into this game with an offensive approach that really, you know, puts the Nuggets into a spot where they're interested in running or they are, you know, sort of aggressively, you know, scoring in this one. And I think this is going to be more of a second half chess match, reduced possessions. And Minnesota is going to have to double down on the only thing that has worked for them in the series, which is winning with defense now to the degree that Denver feels some urgency to win this game. It's going to be fascinating to see what adjustments they make at halftime. And I'll probably consider a Denver second half bet if Minnesota is up. But, you know, I think ultimately it's pretty clear Denver is likely to come through this series and maybe even have a home series in the Western Conference Finals, which is a huge swing and win probability from where they were a week ago. But I think two and a half is exactly the right price from a side standpoint, but my total is a 203 here. And I think there's actually scope for one of two things. Minnesota's offense just not working and not being competitive and or their defense being more to the tune of what we saw in games one and games two. I also look at a lot of what Denver got production-wise out of some of the role players on that team, and I will ask, can they do it again on the road?”
115-70 — Minnesota beat Denver 115-70 in Game 6 on May 16, 2024, a combined 185 points, under the 203 total (ESPN recap).
“I got some under. It's not a very strong play, but this is just sort of, you know, it's to me at least the T-Wolves, I don't think that you all of a sudden are coming into this game with an offensive approach that really, you know, puts the Nuggets into a spot where they're interested in running or they are, you know, sort of aggressively, you know, scoring in this one. And I think this is going to be more of a second half chess match, reduced possessions. And Minnesota is going to have to double down on the only thing that has worked for them in the series, which is winning with defense now to the degree that Denver feels some urgency to win this game. It's going to be fascinating to see what adjustments they make at halftime. And I'll probably consider a Denver second half bet if Minnesota is up. But, you know, I think ultimately it's pretty clear Denver is likely to come through this series and maybe even have a home series in the Western Conference Finals, which is a huge swing and win probability from where they were a week ago. But I think two and a half is exactly the right price from a side standpoint, but my total is a 203 here. And I think there's actually scope for one of two things. Minnesota's offense just not working and not being competitive and or their defense being more to the tune of what we saw in games one and games two. I also look at a lot of what Denver got production-wise out of some of the role players on that team, and I will ask, can they do it again on the road? And all this kind of stews together to be more of a rock fight than a wide-open basketball game to me. Got a couple minutes left, Whale. Two other game sixes, so you can kind of pick whichever one you like. Maybe you have a strong betting thought on both. Pacers-Knicks, we found out OG and Anobi already ruled out for that game. That's going to be tomorrow. And then Mavs and Thunder after Dallas took a 3-2 lead last night. That game six with Dallas now more than a possession favorite. So a little bit more built into Dallas there, whichever you feel more confident. We got a couple of minutes left. Give us a bet from one of those games. I'll take both, both overs. And again, like kind of going in and flying in the face of sort of the, the long-term trend of as for the possessions reduce and the market has a difficult time keeping up with it. I think the extra day arrest for both of these games and these teams is going to be important. I think the urgency for the Knicks to try to kind of, you know, kind of keep up the energy and the pace that we saw in game five is there. And I think you're, you'd very realistically expect a better offensive performance out of the Pacers. They're just Jekyll and Hyde offense home and away. So I would expect that they can get into the, you know, the 105 to 110 range, which I think could make this total not even really much of a sweat. I bet some 215 and a half. I see it trending at some of the sharper shops up to 216. So I think this is probably going to close a little higher than our current number. And I agree with it. This has a lot of the vibes of game six of the Knicks Sixers series, where the Knicks came out and were very, very aggressive offensively. And I know that there were specific decisions that Rick Carlisle made that we can kind of be very critical of in the first half that helped the Knicks offense get going. But I still am not entirely sold that Neesmith is a lockdown guy. And I think that in general, the Knicks kind of can bring it in this game with an extra day rest. Drew, got about a minute left.”
116-103 — Indiana beat New York 116-103 in Game 6 on May 17, 2024, a combined 219 points, clearing the 215.5 total (ESPN recap).
“Drew, got about a minute left. Do you want to get your thoughts on the Preakness? Who do you like to win the race and anything that's your bet and what's on your card? So best outcome for me, and it's not close, is the eight Tuscan dude. Bet into him in the Fixed Odds pool before Muth got scratched just because he was the only horse that I could see with somewhat of an interesting kind of underpriced path. I think the favorite Mystic Dan is going to be wildly overbet by the time we get to the post. I don't love his chances here to repeat. I think that this is a pretty live field, and he's going to have to go toe-to-toe pace-wise with imagination over the first half of this race, and that's going to open the door for a stalker, a pace presser like Tuscan Gold. And if you don't know who Tuscan Gold is, but you do have a little bit of a reference of horse racing, he's exactly in the mold of the early voting and the cloud computing, which are Chad Brown horses. I'm a lot on cloud. You remember? So Chad Brown has a three-year-old. He thinks this is a special horse, but he's not ready to run the derby. Not ready to run in a huge field like that, but a shorter, a mile and three-sixteenths, a little extra time to get him prepped. We'll save him for the Preakness. Well, that's Tuscan Gold this year, so it would be very fun if he can repeat history and get his third Preakness in the last handful of years and stop the Triple Crown a bit of Mystic Dan. There you go.”
Seize the Grey won the 2024 Preakness Stakes; Tuscan Gold finished 4th. (Tuscan Gold: 4th)
“If the Nuggets come through and beat the Timberwolves, I'd say that the market's going to give you a pretty awesome opportunity to bet the Thunder in that case. And I have some thunder to win the West five to one in pocket. And I think ultimately that would be my pick at the minute at the moment. But it's just a little bit of a soft lean as opposed to high confidence.”
The Dallas Mavericks won the 2024 Western Conference, beating the Timberwolves 4-1 in the conference finals; Oklahoma City lost in the second round, so the Thunder futures bet busts (Wikipedia, 2024 NBA playoffs). (2024 Western Conference champion: Dallas Mavericks)
“Um, but, uh, it seems like the guy that they have the most, uh, chemistry, you know, going with is JC Latham. Um, and I've played a bunch of his unders. I've played him exact, uh, to go fifth, uh, just in case the chargers do something wild. Uh, and I think, uh, just them taking an offensive tackle is starting to look more likely, which”
The Tennessee Titans selected JC Latham with the No. 7 overall pick, not fifth (NFL.com). (Latham selected: pick No. 7 overall)
“And so I'm cooled off on betting that series at all. I think the Timberwolves might just be better. And the Thunder, I think, will prevail against the Pelicans. So that leaves us with the Clippers and the Mavs. And I think the Mavericks are a better team. I think they have a higher ceiling. I think there could be some disruption when they reintegrate Kawhi. And I think ultimately there are too many ancillary pieces around the Clippers that you have answers for and not enough confidence that Harden and Paul George are going to be able to do this for seven games. So give me the Mavs of all the teams that lost round one or game one. Nick and Ken, you better you bet, talking the NBA playoffs and the NFL draft.”
Dallas beat the LA Clippers 114-101 in Game 6 to win the Western Conference first-round series 4-2 (ESPN game recap). (Mavericks won series 4-2)
“I have Knicks every which way. And I thought they, obviously, it was like high leverage shot-making that kind of got them across the finish line in Game 1. But that was about as good an effort as you were going to get from the Sixers and Joel Embiid. And on a quick turnaround, I'm expecting pretty much no contest from them. I laid the 5.5. I think the Knicks are a much better team. And I think the Sixers are in deep trouble. I don't exactly know what they would, you know, the adjustments, the answers, particularly the kind of the tweaks to how you're going to find offense in the absence of a, potentially in the absence of an ill. Tyrese Maxey looks like a huge, huge problem for the Sixers. And if this game is not competitive entering the fourth quarter, you probably aren't even going to see him beat in the fourth quarter. You want to put him under bubble wrap and save him for game three,”
NYK 104, PHI 101 — New York beat Philadelphia 104-101, a 3-point margin, short of the Knicks' -5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“max homa that's the best price and it's your plus money on homa head to head”
-4 to -4 — Max Homa and Collin Morikawa both finished the 2024 Masters tied for 3rd at -4, an exact tie in their head-to-head matchup (ESPN leaderboard).
“Yeah, laid the Eagles. I got four and a half yesterday.”
25-11 — Eagles beat Buccaneers 25-11, margin +14 vs line -4.5; covers (ESPN).
“Bill's minus two and a half before it gets to three. I think this is the bet.”
48-20 — Bills beat Dolphins 48-20, margin +28 vs line -2.5; covers (ESPN).
“First of all, I have Djokovic in pocket to not an uncomfortable amount, but as much as I'm willing to bet in tennis. What was he pre-tournament? Best price I think I have is plus 150.”
Novak Djokovic defeated Daniil Medvedev 6-3, 7-6(5), 6-3 in the 2023 US Open men's singles final on Sep 10, 2023 (ATP Tour). (2023 US Open men's singles champion: Novak Djokovic (def. Medvedev 6-3, 7-6(5), 6-3))
“Yeah, the first one I am on the under. 43 and a half is still bettable.”
BAL 25, HOU 9 — Baltimore Ravens beat Houston Texans 25-9 on Sep 10, 2023; combined 34 points is under 43.5 (ESPN).
“I've taken a pretty bold stance against this Jets offense in the market. I've bet them aggressively in the fewest points scored market”
The Jets scored 268 total points in the 2023 regular season, well above the league-low 236 shared by the Patriots and Panthers, so New York was not the fewest-scoring team (ESPN). (Jets 268 points; league-low 236 points)
“interesting to see the Seattle coming down to four and a half there. I like them against the Rams pretty, pretty substantially.”
13-30 — Rams beat Seahawks 30-13 on Sep 10, 2023; Seattle lost outright, so Seahawks -4.5 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“I played them on the money line.”
7-30 — 49ers beat Steelers 30-7 on Sep 10, 2023; Pittsburgh lost, so the Steelers moneyline bet busted (ESPN box score).
“Mike Tomlin, 20 to one at our show sponsor, BetMGM to be coach of the year in the National Football League.”
Browns' Kevin Stefanski won the 2023 AP NFL Coach of the Year award; Mike Tomlin did not win it (NFL.com).