Fill-in Host · 72-68-2 on settled picks
| League | moneyline | total | futures | prop | spread | other | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 19-23-13% | 10-6+19% | 5-7-20% | 10-5+41% | 3-0 | — | 47-41+5% |
| NHL | 6-9-25% | 6-0+84% | 3-8+11% | 2-0 | 0-2 | — | 17-19+7% |
| NBA | 1-0 | 0-1 | — | — | 2-1 | — | 3-2+15% |
“[3:00] So I'm going to jump on this now. [3:01] I think even by week zero or week one, you could see that season win total go up to eight, eight and a half. [3:07] Jump on it now. [3:08] Give me the Oklahoma Sooners over seven and a half wins, minus 150.”
“[14:25] I'm going to leave the bullpens out of this. [14:27] If the Astros do take a lead late and you've got to face off against Josh Cater, [14:31] I don't have much faith in the team that's already mailed it in for the rest of the year. [14:34] So I'll take the Angels' first five innings, plus 105, plus 110.”
“nine games back on june 30th probably the most disappointing team in baseball so far this year it's the detroit tigers now the big caveat here and really the premise of this bet when i was looking through this weekend i'd like to go back to my futures our futures are on pace to do fantastic for our paramount sports clients this year but i like to go check in on where we're at about halfway through the season and see if there's anything I like to make a bet on. And then I'll do the same right after the all-star break, maybe the trade deadline and see if there's anything else. Well, checking in on the Tigers themselves and where their numbers dictate that they should be versus where they are This team does have value And if you want to get a little bit riskier with it a little higher reward you can actually look at them at betting them to win the american league and frankly i say that because i don't know if anybody wants to win the american league right now the new york yankees have been running away with it they're two and eight in their last 10 they've been shut out through five innings i believe in four of their last five games without aaron judge in the lineup they just haven't had the same pop john carlos stanton is hurt ryan mcmahon is hurt defensively they've got plenty of issues on their end. But let's look at the AL Central. I really don't know if anybody wants to win this one, this division at all, either. The White Sox, they've been a fun story, but they can't win away from home. They're 16 and 25 outside of the south side of Chicago. And they have major pitching problems. Their starting pitching group has really just been cobbled together of a bunch of five and dive guys, like we talked about with J.P. Sears. And their bullpen has been good, but not great. You look at the Guardians, who have been consistently mediocre, you know, 500 baseball team there without Jose Ramirez. My concern for the Guardians too, is that J-Ram just got his stitches out. So he's on his way back to, back to rehab starts and back to playing baseball. But two things, he hadn't been playing great baseball this year before he got hurt. And two, that's a broken hamate bone. And for anybody who's played baseball before or who follows baseball closely, a broken hamate bone is one of the toughest injuries to come back from and perform well in that season. You see it throughout baseball all the time. It's becoming a much more common injury. Francisco Lindor dealt with it, and when he came back, he was a 150 hitter for a month, month and a half. The handmaid bone is just a difficult injury to come back from. So I don't have a ton of faith in the Guardians to run away with this division. This is a team that's known for going 500 every year. If the Tigers can get back to 500, they've got the front office and the staff to really go for it. They know they're on the last year of Tarek Skubal. If they can get to 500, are they trading him at the deadline? I don't think they are. Now, the staff itself without Skubal, and now that Skubal's back, they're certainly bolstered. But without Skubal, it's actually been pretty good. Keiter Montero has been great. He has a sub 3-4 ERA. Troy Melton has been lights out. He has a sub 2-4 ERA. and even Frambois Valdez, despite all the drama he seems to bring and maybe the disappointment he's been this year, he has a .332 ERA over his last seven starts. And the vast majority of those runs came in a blow-up outing against the Astros over the weekend. So with Scoogle back on the mound, the starting pitching staff certainly can pitch better and has pitched better. The offense, yes, they've limped throughout most of the season. They've been disappointing. Spitzer, Turkelson, Riley Green at times. Plenty of guys have been disappointing. But if you just look at their lineup, they still got two-thirds of their starting lineup, their daily starting lineup. Six of those guys have a WRC plus over 100. That is the sign of a team that can hit or should be hitting more than they have. And I've got to pull up my expected stats versus my actual stats. They've got a 242 expected batting average versus a 236 average. at 3, excuse me, a 409 expected slugging over a 391 slugging percentage, and a 322x WOBA over a 312 WOBA. And WOBA is one of those advanced stats that takes into account quality of contact, hard hit, exit velocity, and so on and so forth, and tries to calculate what your batting average should be as well. So in other words, these underlying metrics for this Tigers offense are better than what they show on their face. Now, yes, the lineup's struggling, but they have a 30 and 27 record outside of that dismal month of May when they went six and 22. If you take that 30 and 27 record and extrapolate it to a full season, this is a playoff team. I don't see the Guardians going 30 and 27 or on a 30 and 27 pace the rest of the year. If the Guardians came back last year the way they did and the Tigers collapsed the way they did, are you really all that concerned about anybody else? In fact, if you took the Tigers right now and they went eight and two or nine and one over the next 10 games, this line is going to go from 13 to one to five to one in no time. I'm not worried about the twins. They have maybe the worst bullpen in baseball and they're still in the middle of a rebuild. So with really a whole bunch of paper Tigers surrounding the actual Detroit Tigers and the AL Central, I'm going to take a shot on them at 13 to one. Bet a little, went a whole lot.”
“Yeah, well, maybe the worst division in baseball, at least maybe the least relevant. You know, what I often do when the offseason is starting to come to a conclusion and we getting pitchers and catchers reporting is I like to go to fan graphs and I like to go to baseball reference And on fan graphs you can check their projected standings for the year Those are typically pretty reliable And then in baseball reference what I like to do is check two major stats from the year prior, a team's record against teams who are above 500 and a team's record in one run games. Now the Kansas City Royals meet the criteria for a team that should improve from their record last year based on their one run games and their record against teams above 500. The rest of the AL Central, I don't know so much about them. Now, Fangraphs has projected standings of the Detroit Tigers at 87 wins, winning the AL Central, and the Royals in second at 82 wins. But I think that's a bit off. Now, the Royals didn't do anything very flashy this offseason. They added Isaac Collins and Lane Thomas to the lineup. These are more contact hitters. They had one of the worst batting averages as a team in Major League Baseball last year. So I think these can be some low risk, high reward additions to the batting lineup. The bullpen itself, the bullpen and the starting pitching was great. The starting pitching was seventh in baseball in Team ERA last year. And then as far as the relievers go, they added Matt Strom, who we'll talk about a little bit later, Alex Lang and Nick Mears to a reliever group that was already already really solid. You've seen several of their relievers showing out so far in the World Baseball Classic. Now, this was a bang average team last year. They weren't anything special. They should have been a little bit better than they were by their Pythagorean win-loss record. But they did have an expectation of competing this year. They have Jack Caglione, hopefully taking a bigger role in the professional lineup and the majors this year. They're working on shortening the fence at their park as well to make it a little bit more hitter-friendly, which should help him. And then there's another name to keep an eye on, Mikel Garcia. He was one of their top prospects last year. He ended up with a top 10, if not top 15 batting average and OPS in all of baseball last year. But he's playing for a Royals team that wasn't really stiff in the playoffs by come September, October. So we didn't hear much about him. Either way, both of those guys, Caglione and Garcia, should be taking bigger roles with the lineup this year. Now, Cleveland should fall off a bit again this year after their late season surge. I feel like we've been saying that for the last five or six years about this Guardians team. But Jose Ramirez seems to just be keeping them afloat. But I also look at Detroit, and I wonder how different this team could look come July or August. Can Tarek Skubal get traded by the deadline with his pending free agency approaching? Yes, they signed Frommer Valdez, but Reese Olsen, who is going to be their two or three starter this year, is out for the year of shoulder surgery. All of a sudden, if Skubal's gone and if Reese Olsen struggles, you're looking at Jack Flaherty as your number two behind Frommer. And Frommer fell off towards the end of last year as well. So the starting pitching staff for the favorite, I think, is very flawed. The starting lineup for the favorite is very flawed. I don't see Cleveland competing as much as they did last year. You're going to give me the Royals at plus 220 to take the division crown? I'll absolutely take that. Give me the Kansas City Royals at plus 220 to win the AL Central. But a little, win a whole lot.”
“Well, one thing that immediately jumps to mind when you think about the Phillies in the grand scheme of the NL East is that the Marlins improved a little bit last year, but the Atlanta Braves dropped maybe 30 wins that they probably should have had, or at least were projected to have coming into the season. You would again, expect the Braves to be an improvement on that last year. This division is not going to be a cakewalk for this Philadelphia Phillies team. I posted on my on our X account the other day Paramount MLB that I think we could see upwards of four new division winners this year And I think the NL East is one of them You have a Braves team that could absolutely compete with the Phillies if healthy Now, the Braves have already dealt with a ton of pitching injuries late in this offseason. They might even be dealing with some more. And they just lost a big reliever, Joey Wentz, the other day to a torn ACL after a fluke injury in spring training. But then you look at the New York Mets. All three of these teams are projected around the high 80s in their season win total. In fact, I think the Mets might be at 90 and a half now, depending on what book you look at. I'm not the biggest fan of the Mets this year, but I do feel more confident in fading the Phillies. Like I said, this is a better division if both of those two teams can stay healthy and if the Marlins can continue to progress through their rebuild and be effective, especially late in the year like they were last year. When you look at their offseason additions and subtractions, they lost Matt Strom to the Royals, and he was a pretty good bullpen piece for them, at least a long reliever at times. They lost Nick Cassianos, who's probably a net negative, at least in the field nowadays. But they also lost Ranger Suarez to free agency. And that is a massive loss for a team that really relies on his pitching, his left-handed pitching, to get them across big competitive games and help them in playoff series, help them in big divisional series as well. And really all they did, yes, they added Adoles Garcia, but I think Adoles Garcia and Nick Cassianos are like-for-like additions and subtractions at this point in their careers. and then they re-signed JT Real Muto. Not only re-signing him, but re-signing him to a three-year deal is just shocking to me. He is a below-league average catcher. They've known they needed a new catcher in that lineup for a long time now, and Real Muto getting a three-year deal just doesn't seem productive to me at all. Now, they did just re-sign Jesus Luzardo, but again, this isn't a team that added much to stay competitive in the upper echelons of the National League this year. they're going to have to rely on, yes, the number one prospect in baseball, Andrew Painter. They're also going to have to rely on Aaron Nola this year to fill in for Zach Wheeler, who's going to be out until at least late May, if not after that, with some blood clots that he's been dealing with all year, excuse me, last year. If we can remember just the last season, though, Aaron Nola was, again, a below league average pitcher. Jesus Lizardo was below league average at times as well. And Andrew Painter, when he has come up to the big leagues, has struggled quite a bit, especially with his command. So, this starting pitching staff all of a sudden looks much more flawed than it did last year. It's something you'd expect the Phillies to have in control really perennially as a contender in the NL East. And all of a sudden, their pitching depth and their up top, their elite pitching staff is just not there anymore. I think this is a rebuild a long time coming for this team. And in a more competitive, presumably a healthier division in the NL East, I think we're going to start seeing big major signs of that for the first time in recent memory. Give me the Philadelphia Phillies under 89 and a half wins this year. Minus 110. We'll go with a level one lock.”
“[17:40] And just because Nola's big issue is his home run ball does not mean he's not giving up a ton of hits elsewhere. [17:45] I think the wrong team's favored here. [17:47] Whenever I can get Sandy Alcantara as an underdog against Aaron Nola, I'm probably going to take it. [17:52] Give me the Miami Marlins, plus 114.”
PHI 4, MIA 1 — Miami Marlins lost; moneyline busts.
“[3:28] I do think this series course corrects tonight, [3:30] and then you've got a rubber match on Wednesday. [3:32] Give me the Atlanta Braves money line. [3:34] Minus 122 at the Minnesota Twins. [3:37] Level two lock.”
MIN 4, ATL 1 — Atlanta Braves lost; moneyline busts.
“[13:03] So I'm going to take Milwaukee here. [13:05] There's a little bit of juice, minus 145 to minus 150. [13:09] But I think Milwaukee, money line at home against the Seattle Mariners. [13:12] I see this being a 5-2, 6-2 final score.”
MIL 22, SEA 0 — Milwaukee Brewers won; moneyline covers.
“[18:10] So I'm going to keep betting this Mets team, especially when they're a home underdog, to a team like the Padres. [18:16] Just like Bryce Miller, who we talked about earlier, hasn't been consistent this year. [18:20] Plus 105, I'll take the Mets at home as a slight home underdog.”
NYM 2, SD 5 — New York Mets lost; moneyline busts.
“[3:51] So the Orioles are just rolling over the rest of the season. [3:55] They're still fighting. [3:56] It seems like that entire AL East is fighting for whether it's the division lead, if not the wildcard spots. [4:02] So I'll take the Orioles at plus 145.”
TB 7, BAL 6 — Baltimore Orioles lost; moneyline busts.
“[14:07] This is a situation ripe for the over. [14:09] I'm going to avoid the side on either team here. [14:12] I'm going to take the over eight. [14:14] That seems a little low for me tonight. [14:16] So give me the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Detroit Tigers to go over eight runs. [14:20] Minus 110 at PNC Park tonight.”
PIT 5, DET 8 — Combined 13; over 8 covers.
“[17:29] the tunnel for the athletics lineup. So at plus 140, I think we can easily see him pull up double [17:34] or two quick singles, maybe even a home run tonight. So give me Lawrence Butler over one [17:38] and a half total bases at plus 140.”
Lawrence Butler stayed below the total-bases line. (Lawrence Butler: 1 H, 1 total base)
“[3:57] So I think the colder team and the hotter and the wrong team is favored here. [4:02] Give me the Blue Jays at plus 130. [4:03] I think they pull the upset to start this series off.”
TOR 3, NYY 1 — Toronto Blue Jays won; moneyline covers.
“[12:38] So he's at minus 120, minus 130 to go over one and a half bases.”
Jac Caglianone cleared the total-bases line. (Jac Caglianone: 3 H, 1 HR, 6 total bases)
“[12:42] I'm going to play half of my wager on that and half of my wager on Cagliari [12:46] to also hit a home run at plus 235.”
Jac Caglianone hit a home run. (Jac Caglianone: 1 HR)
“[15:09] Maybe you see some guys you're not familiar with hitting some home runs, but I'll take the more comfortable team, the hotter team. [15:15] You may have Cincinnati Reds, Moneyline, minus 110 and low out special.”
CIN 1, MIA 0 — Cincinnati Reds won; moneyline covers.
“Yeah, I mean, it's becoming pretty apparent that the athletics go as Nick Kurtz goes. And Kurtz recently came back off the IL. He's struggled to start in the second half. He's hitting just 152 in the month of July. And that includes an OPS of 533 in July. And it's no surprise at this point that athletics are 4-16 in the month of July as he's struggled. And they've got other pieces in their lineup they've got jacob wilson that was shortest from shea langoliers is now gone as well from the lineup but this team has just fallen apart as nick kurtz's season has really fallen apart now they've had some positives in their starting pitching staff gage jump being one of them he's tonight's starter and he's been really good so far this year but i think jake bennett boston starters even been better in fact the big trade that happened over the weekend was the Red Sox sending Connolly early to the Washington Nationals to get some some help, you know, forming some some depth in their lineup. Well, the Red Sox did that because they have a surplus of starting left handed pitchers. And Jake Bennett, frankly, has just been better than Connolly early. So he's rewarded them. He's proven his spot over his last five starts. He's got a 165 ERA. That's over 33 innings. So he's really proven his work, keeping his his worth. And, And, you know, frankly, at this point, the Red Sox have a top three to four bullpen in baseball, especially when they have a lead going late into games. And you look at the athletics bullpen and since the All-Star break, they have an 880 ERA. So, yeah, you're going to have to eat some juice on this one. It's minus 142 over on FanDuel. But I think this is a good team, bad team matchup and the starting pitching matchup should should be conducive to that. So I'll take the Red Sox. Keep this one simple. minus 142 the Boston Red Sox money line a minus 144 level two lock”
ATH 4, BOS 3 — Athletics beat Boston 4-3 on 7/28/26; Red Sox moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Busy slate inside the WNBA tonight. One of the late night games, the Indiana Fever heading out west to take on the Seattle Storm, who have struggled majorly this season. And there's a lot of points to eat here, but we're going to do it. The Fever laying nine and a half. We're going to lay it with Indiana. They've already beaten Seattle twice this year, but they failed to cover the spread in each of those two games, including the last matchup, 1-10, 1-07 win for the Fever. That was a game that they were up 17. Seattle came all the way back, took the lead. Indiana had a rally in the fourth quarter. That was a game where Caitlin Clark had 45 for the Fever and Kelsey Mitchell had 30, so 75 between the two of them. But in the two matchups with Seattle this year, Indiana's third leading scorer, Leah Boston, their center, she didn't play in either of them. So now she's healthy. So they have their three-headed monster going into Seattle tonight. The Storm, 6-1 against the spread the last seven. But still, I like this spot here with Indiana after a little bit of a break. Now heading out west, they play Portland next. There's really no look ahead in that game. So let's lay the points with the fever against the storm. Lay the nine and a half as our WNBA blowout special.”
IND 105, SEA 95 — Indiana beat Seattle 105-95 on 7/28/26, a 10-point margin that clears the Fever -9.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, I do. It's minus 135 on the money line. But frankly, today is not the day for this Blue Jays offense to turn things around. 2.4 runs per game since the All-Star break. They've got the third worst slugging percentage in all of baseball this year. Vlad Guerrero still hasn't hit a homer at home this year. I know they're on the road, but he's got six homers. All of them are on the road, and he's just not making solid contact at this point in the season. Now you're looking up and down their lineup, and Addison Barger is done for the year, a defensive specialist who was sort of a locker room superhero as they made it all the way to the World Series last year, and now he's gone. Their offense could turn it on late in the year. I think at this point, the majority of their lineup and their starting pitching staff is playing to be traded at the deadline, but they've got to face Cade Cavalli tonight. And I talked about him the last time I was on here. Him and Foster Griffin are one of my favorite one-two punches in all of baseball. He's really taken a step up just like Griffin has. He's got a 250 ERA over his last five starts. And you look at the Blue Jays. Yeah, Shane Bieber has pitched well recently, but he's not the kind of guy who can give you the length that he could seven, eight years ago. So you look at the Blue Jays' bullpen, and they're really a three-headed monster in that bullpen. It's Jeff Hoffman, Louis Varland and Mason Fluharty. In fact, Fluharty leads Major League Baseball in appearances this year. Well, Fluharty and Varland and Hoffman all pitched last night. So that really puts their availability into question for a team who's trying to save these guys' arms, keep them fresh, and hopefully trade them at the deadline for some packages. They're probably not going to be wearing these guys out leading up to the deadline. So with those two, with Fluharty and Varland almost surely out of this game and Hoffman only available if they have a close game late and the Blue Jays are leading, they're going to be pretty decimated in the relief group. I think with Washington, this one-two punch of C.J. Abrams and James Wood just taking over Major League Baseball this year, this is a mismatch. I made this line closer to minus 155, so I'll take the blowout special with the Washington Nationals' money line, minus 135.”
WSH 8, TOR 6 — Washington beat Toronto 8-6 on 7/28/26; Nationals moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, you know, Clemens is one of my favorite young players to watch, really because I like young hitters who can hit all over the lineup. You see these kids who have to be slotted in in the leadoff spot or in the ninth spot nowadays, or they're in the sixth spot in the lineup, and they struggle outside of those spots in the lineup. Clemens isn't, that's not the case with him. He's a strong lefty hitter from really anywhere. And I think tonight he could actually slot into the leadoff spot against Kansas City and Seth Lugo. And I'd love to see him there. One, because we get more opportunities for him to rack up some hits. But two, because I'm really not a fan of Seth Lugo. Lugo's got a 540 ERA on the road this year. And believe it or not, Clemens has six at-bats against him this season. He has four hits and three of them are home runs. He has one hit against the entire rest of the Royals pitching staff in 25 games. So you can tell where he's comfortable seeing Lugo. And typically that's not the case. Lugo is one of these guys who has six, maybe seven pitches in his arsenal. He can mix speeds, mix shapes pretty well. And he's a veteran. He's got the he's able to really pitch precisely and hit his spots. He just hasn't been able to do it this year. And when his velocity has dropped off over the last couple of years, he's become really just a batting cage machine at this point. So I like Clemens facing off against him alone. Even if he doesn't rack up his two bases against Lugo, he's going to face one of the worst bullpens again in Kansas City's and on the back end. And he's also just a way better hitter at home. He's got a .265 average with a .497 slug in Minnesota this year versus a .224 average and just a .481 slug away from home. So I like his splits here. I like his platoons against righties like Lugo. I'll take him again. Over one and a half bases. All we need is a double. He's even got the speed for a triple. And he's got plenty of power to go yard as maybe even a leadoff homer and just take care of this one pretty early. So give me Cody Clemons. Over one and a half bases. It's around minus 120 to minus 15. That's a hidden gem.”
MIN 3, KC 2 — Kody Clemens went 1-for-3 with a double and an HBP (2 total bases) as Minnesota beat Kansas City 3-2 on 7/28/26; clears the Over 1.5 total bases (ESPN box score). (Clemens: 1-3, 2B, 2 TB)
“Yeah, not only can they not win, they can't even get a good appearance out of Mason Miller in Wrigley Field. As Mason Miller, they gave up the walk-off homer last night. But really, the pitching concerns in this game really lie with the Cubs. Cubs fans, they want a lot of help with the trade deadline, especially in the starting rotation, and that's largely due to injuries across the board. They've already acquired David Peterson from the Mets to try to help things out, but a lot of those concerns also stem from Matthew Boyd. Now, remember, he was their quote-unquote ace going into the postseason last year because they just didn't have any help, but he was all they had left, and he had been pitching pretty consistently. He's not going to be your number one starter getting you through the postseason, and he might not even be their number one starter right now. He hasn't looked great since he came back from injury. Remember, he had that early season, and it might have actually been a preseason injury. He hurt his hand when he was playing with his kids at home, and he just hasn't looked great since he came back from that injury. He's got a 502 ERA in limited appearances since he did come back. He's giving up a 50% hard hit rate. That's actually in the second percentile among all MLB pitchers. It's one of the worst in baseball. Now, he also has a pull error percentage of 23.7% in his limited starts so far this year. Now, for those who don't know, a pull error percentage is the percentage of batted balls you give up that are pulled to the pull side of the hitter and are in the air. Typically, those are harder hit baseballs. That's where you see home runs, doubles, extra base hits, and you're giving up hard contact. It's one of the worst in baseball at 23.7%. In fact, in Major League Baseball right now, the league average is 16%. So he's a full 7%, almost 8% higher than the league average right now. Now, that will not play in most parks and in most situations, but it's definitely not going to play at Wrigley Field in 90-degree weather when the wind is blowing out. If you notice, and you go check the game line for this game, the total, the over-under for this game is at around 11.5, and that's because Wrigley Field is extremely weather-dependent. The wind is going to be blowing out. The weather is going to be warm. That's going to give plenty of opportunities to these hitters to put up home runs, put up extra base hits. And the way Boyd is pitching so far early in this year, it's just not good enough for Wrigley Field. Now, on the other end, you do have J.P. Sears for the Padres. And he, frankly, would not be a starter right now if they were fully healthy. He's not a world beater, but he actually is a guy that I picked to bet on quite a bit this season, primarily because he's really just a five-and-dive guy. He's going to go out there and pitch four, five, maybe six innings if he's really on his stuff and he's got his fastball and his changeup moving. But even then, in his best game, he's going to be turning this game over to the bullpen pretty early on. Now, if you look at the Padres' available relievers, Mason Miller, like I mentioned, pitched last night but only seven pitches and didn't pitch the game before. Adrian Morajone and Kyle Hart are a couple of other guys that are still going to be available. So regardless of how long J.P. Sears lasts, this bullpen, the best in baseball by far, is going to be able to take over this game and take over the last half of the game, if not the last four or five innings at the very least, and really shut down this Cubs offense that hasn't inspired much in the last couple of weeks. They're well rested. They should have no problem taking on high leverage and low leverage situations in this game. and I honestly think this starting pitching matchup is much closer than it should be. Boyd has been known as a one or two starter the last couple of years, but frankly he's been pitching like a three or four this year. So with how well the Padres have played on the road recently, with the Cubs' injury struggles and how much their offense has been hit or miss recently, give me the San Diego Padres. I think at plus 100, this is a level one lock.”
7-9 — The Cubs beat San Diego 9-7; the Padres ML loses (ESPN box score).
“Nice rivalry spot in the WNBA tonight between the New York Liberty and the Las Vegas Aces. These teams just played last week in Vegas, and the Liberty took them out. That was the only win on their road trip. They went 1-3, lost at Seattle, lost at Golden State, now coming back home. And the big question coming into tonight's matchup is Asia Wilson, the runaway MVP candidate, the favorite for this award. She tweaked her ankle in their win against Chicago on Sunday. She's listed as questionable. I'm going to assume she's going to play because she came back in that game at 30 points and 15 rebounds. But let's go with the Las Vegas Aces here, getting two and a half against New York. And again, under the assumption she's playing. But a couple of things here. Number one, Aces, second-best road record in the WNBA at 9-2 right behind Minnesota, who's 9-1. The Liberty, they've just been so up and down so far this season, still one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. And like I mentioned, beating Las Vegas now 9-2 the last 11 meetings with the Aces. But for whatever reason, they've had these other stumbles, losing to L.A. and Seattle, two teams outside the playoff picture on their most recent trip. Golden State's still a decent team they lost to on Sunday night. But the Aces, they do have a knack for playing better in a nice revenge spot. You saw what they did against Dallas last week. After losing the first two matchups, we had the Aces over the Wings. And I think here that the Aces, I mean, the Commissioner's Cup, it doesn't really matter if you win it all. No, but I think just the situation of them playing New York and all the struggles they've had against them, especially losing last week, I think they're going to bounce back here, get the road win. Let's back the Las Vegas Aces against New York as our WNBA. Wrong team favorite.”
85-93 — New York beat Las Vegas 93-85 in the Commissioner's Cup Championship, an -8 margin for the Aces vs the +2.5 line; Aces don't cover (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, I did expect a bit of a letdown for the Red Sox coming off that Yankees series. But with Ranger Suarez on the bump, I held off. I do think that letdown comes tonight. Remember, this is a Red Sox team that is just 3-10 in their 13 home series this season. They have not been good at home. They're actually, I believe, 13 and a half games back of the division lead, but only four and a half games back of a wild card spot as we stand right now. So they're still fighting for something. But it's not as if day in and day out they're playing like they're in some September baseball games with a chance to move on to the postseason. Now, they are getting Cade Cavalli tonight. This guy is one of my favorite pitchers in baseball. He's actually boring to watch, which is one of my favorite things to note for a pitcher that I want to bet on. He's got a heavy fastball. He's not going to throw it 99 to 100, but he's going to be in the low to mid-90s. And it's a heavy fastball. It's sinking, diving action. He creates a ton of ground balls. And he's frankly being treated like the Nationals' ace at this point in the season. Now, some of that has to do with the struggles they've had in the rest of the rotation and in the bullpen. But this guy is as highly touted as they should come right now as a young pitcher in baseball. Offensively, for the Nationals, we've talked about it, you and Lee have talked about it on the podcast several times this year, but I don't know if it's been emphasized quite enough. This is the best offense in baseball against left-handed pitching. The Nationals are. They're first in baseball at 114 WRC plus against lefties. They have a .266 batting average against lefties, a .427 selecting percentage against lefties as well. And they're getting Connelly early tonight. And if you'll notice, one change that Chad Tracy and this Red Sox front office have really committed to since Alex Cora left is they're going with a ton of young left-handed starting pitching. Connelly early is one of those guys. He started off great. But at this point, he has a .359 ERA, but a .428 expected ERA. and he struggled a bit at Fenway this year. His ERA at home is near five versus an ERA down near four on the road. Now, when you look at this Red Sox team, they're very bullpen dependent. We talked earlier about certain managers are much more reliant upon their bullpen and much happier to go to their bullpen early on in games than others. Chad Tracy has been sort of in the middle. His problem tonight is that Aroldis Chapman has thrown 43 pitches over the last two days for the Red Sox, including a blown save on Sunday night against the Yankees. And Garrett Whitlock, the second best reliever on the team and a top 15 reliever in baseball at this point, was actually forced into action last night because Chapman was not reliable after his Sunday night blown save. So this Red Sox bullpen is pretty worn out. They've got a starting pitcher is going to be a left handed pitcher against a left handed dominant lineup that, frankly, have right-handed hitters who are going to be hitting the Green Monster all the game. And you've got Kate Cavalli, and one of my favorite things about Cavalli, like I mentioned, is that he's a ground ball pitcher. When you see a guy like Garrett Cole, who can be subject to plenty of fly balls throughout his starts, that's a guy who struggles at Fenway. These fly ball pitchers, especially in good weather, when the wind is blowing out and the weather is warm, are going to give up fly balls, and they're going to give up fly balls to righties that are going to end up barely sneaking over the green monster for home runs or off the green monster for extra base hits. So tonight with Cavalli on the mound, a ground ball pitcher against Connolly Early, who's facing maybe the hottest lineup in baseball against left-handed hitters, plus 130, plus 120 for the Nationals' money line just seems wrong to me. I made this line plus 105. So we'll have to hold our breath when the Nationals' bullpen comes in, but I think they get it done with Cavalli on the mound. Give me the Washington Nationals' money line, plus 120. The wrong team is favored.”
8-1 — Washington beat Boston 8-1 behind Cade Cavalli; the Nationals ML at +120 cashes (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, I mean, I like counting the Panthers out. I think they're done for the year. Unfortunately, it's been an incredible run. But with all the injuries and all the turnover they've had, I think this season's over. And when you get into March and April hockey, one of the things you really have to key in on is teams' motivations. It's just like the NBA. When you're down in the 14, 15, 16 range in your conference and you don't have much to compete for the rest of the year, where can you find spots where a team might have a little bit of motivation left and where might they be just done? And I think this is a perfect spot to pick on the Panthers. We've done it quite a bit with our clients over the last several weeks. They are coming off four road games in seven days right out of the Olympic break. They haven't been very successful. Yes, they did beat Detroit the other night, but this is a quick revenge spot for a Red Wings team that's still competing, not only for their playoff positioning, but also for the Atlantic Division with Buffalo and Tampa. They're just five points back of the division lead with the same amount of games remaining. Now, on the Florida side, yes, Alexander Barkov could return tonight, And Dylan Larkin is likely out for the Detroit Red Wings. But even if Barkov returns, he's not going to be 100 percent. He's probably going to have limited ice time. He's probably going to have limited mobility. And you can't imagine that the Panthers are going to line him up against the Red Wings top line. So he's joining a team that's out of the playoffs. And this is obviously not really an arena down in Sunrise that still sells out and brings much atmosphere to these games when this team is not competitive. Right off of a road trip, there's definitely going to be a lull in the Panthers' play, at least early in this game, with them being out of the race and having their first road game in quite some time. It's a quick revenge spot for the Red Wings. Off that seven-day road trip, still no Seth Jones, and now likely no Brad Marchand tonight. For Florida, I'll take a shot on the underdog here. Give me the Detroit Red Wings plus 110 on the money line. The wrong team is favored.”
FLA 4, DET 3 — Panthers scored twice in the final 90 seconds to beat Detroit 4-3; Red Wings ML busts (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, the Cardinals have really thrived under Pat Kelsey in his second year as head coach. And really, they started to thrive under him last year. They've improved both offensively and defensively. And this year, they're probably playing their best defense yet. I mean, they're 18th in defensive efficiency, the 10th in field goal defense. And the Vols, like you mentioned, they're reeling. They've lost three straight. They're solid on defense like they typically are, but they usually thrive with their ability to dominate the glass. And in this case, however, they're running into really an equally tenacious rebounding team that ranks 11th in the country in rebounding. So the Cardinals are much more efficient offensively and they shoot the ball better from long range. They're well-tested already as well. I mean, they've got three top 25 matchups already under their belt, and they're still sitting at 9-1 so far. So I don't think they'll be intimidated on the road here. I'll take the more well-rounded offense in this battle of really two solid defensive teams. If you can get them at a short price, like plus one and a half, you should take them. I'll say the wrong team's favored. The Louisville Cardinals upset the Tennessee Volunteers tonight.”
TENN 83, LOU 62 — Tennessee beat Louisville 83-62, a 21-point margin that blows through Louisville +1.5 (ESPN box score).
“so the San Antonio Spurs handed Oklahoma City just at second loss of the season on Saturday. And they reached the NBA Cup final, the third year of this event. And they're taking on the New York Knicks. And the Knicks knocked off the Magic. So now we have the rematch of the 1999 NBA Finals here in Las Vegas. And I'm going to take the Spurs' first quarter. And it's basically a plus a half, so win the first quarter. And here's a couple numbers that I like with it. Number one, the Knicks have not been good in the first quarter away from Madison Square Garden. Three and eight so far this season, including Saturday. They trailed Orlando through one before coming back and winning that game. Now, San Antonio is one of the best first quarter teams in the league. 18 and seven against the spread this year in the first quarter. One of those losses came against Oklahoma City on Saturday. But before that, they had led through the first quarter in seven consecutive games. So I think San Antonio will get off to a good start. Also, Victor Wembanyama came back from his injury in the last game, came off the bench, played well. So I'll assume we'll see him starting tonight. But we're going to take the Spurs' first quarter against the Knicks, and who knows how the game will end up. But I do think this is a good spot here. So let's take the Spurs' first quarter. It's our NBA. Hidden Gem.”
Spurs led 30-28 after the first quarter of the NBA Cup Final (Knicks won the full game 124-113), so San Antonio's 1st-quarter -0.5 spread covers (ESPN box score). (1Q: SAS 30, NYK 28 (final NYK 124, SAS 113))
“Yeah, you know, Utah seems to have fallen off quite a bit. I don't really expect it to get a whole lot better anytime soon. Logan Cooley went down with an injury. He's going to be out six to eight weeks as of this past weekend. And now they did sort of rally around them and get that win against Pittsburgh on Sunday. But, you know, I'm more focused on the Bruins. Everybody keeps downing them, and we keep capitalizing on it. Now, let's be honest. This roster isn't good enough to be in a wild card spot, but that's where they find themselves 33 games in. And they have one of the best home records in the NHL at 11-5. So they had a bit of a dud on Sunday in Minnesota, losing to the Wild there. and they're in a bit of a weird stretch too where they're playing six straight games against the Western Conference both on the road and at home but their only two home losses since the start of November have come against Carolina we know they're a really good team and the Rangers who we've mentioned are way better as a team away from home so I like them here I mean Jeremy Swayman is six and two this year at home with a 925 save percentage and a 211 goals against average so I'll take that happily. Now, like I mentioned, Utah, they've shown a little life over the weekend against Seattle and Pittsburgh. I frankly consider both those teams to be closer to, to seller dwellers than I do playoff contenders. So being on the front end of a back-to-back right now across the country, away from where they're comfortable, I suspect they're just trying to stay afloat here and we're getting a pretty cheap line on Boston. It seems like Utah might just want to get back to back home and sort of lick their wounds a little bit and get back to where they're comfortable. playing. So I'll take the Bruins here, minus 105 at home at TD Garden. We'll call it a level one lock.”
BOS 4, UTA 1 — Bruins beat Mammoth 4-1, so Boston Bruins moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“Well, yeah, if you'll remember, I think the last time I was on the show with you, Kevin, we talked about the fact that the Islanders had just fired their goaltending coach after starting the season giving up four goals a game and starting on an over streak of something like 11-0. And what have they done since they fired that goaltending coach? And not only firing him, but replacing him with a goaltending coach who can speak Russian to their Russian goaltender. Well, they've gone 13-8-3. They're firmly in a playoff spot in the Metro Division after really seemingly out of nowhere in a jam-packed Eastern Conference. And Ilya Sorokin is second in the NHL in goals saved above expectation. And he just won last week's NHL's first star of the week. So clearly the change they made has worked. He is not the type of goalie to be giving up three and a half, four goals a game. And they're really not the type of team that can survive giving up three and a half, four goals a game and playing a more up and down, fast paced game. So the changes have worked, at least in the crease, in between the net. So the power play still isn't ticking really at the right pace. They're just not talented enough. They lost Kyle Palmieri to that brutal, torn ACL. He's a big part of their special teams units, but they're getting this Vegas Golden Knights team at the right time. Now, believe it or not, it's probably going under the radar, given how inconsistent the entire Pacific division has been this year. But Vegas is a sub 500 team since the start of November. They're seven, four and five in their last 16 games. And we typically yeah, we typically like to look at the last five, 10 games when we decide on these bets and when we want to give out some numbers for the show. But that goes to show you that Vegas really for half of this season hasn't been what we thought they'd be. Now, again, they're still second in the division and vying for the lead in the division. But that's more so about the fact that Edmonton has struggled. The Kings have struggled. Vancouver hasn't brought things around either. And Anaheim really just seems to be the only team that can remain consistent in that division. So 7-4 and 5 in the last 16, it's a sub-500 team. They're still a great team. I'm really not worried about them long term. But when you can find spots to take advantage of these bad PDO runs for NHL teams, and for those who are listening who don't know what PDO is, it's the sum of your shooting percentage and your save percentage over a given period of time. And it's really a determining factor, tells you how lucky or unlucky a team has been. And an average luck value under PDO would be around 100. The Vegas Golden Knights over their last 15 to 16 games are at around a 94 to 95. So they're just getting unlucky right now. And this is a good time to really jump on top of that and take advantage of it. You've got the Islanders at home at a plus 120 dog when these two teams seem to be going in different directions. I'll take a shot on that. So give me the New York Islanders plus 120. National TV tonight, maybe Matthew Schaefer, that first overall pick, could show out a little bit on TNT. The New York Islanders don't take the money line. Plus 120, the wrong team is favored.”
Islanders 5, Golden Knights 4 (SO) — New York Islanders beat Vegas 5-4 in a shootout, so Islanders ML +120 covers (ESPN scoreboard).
“Heat and magic meet for the third time this season, all three times in Orlando. It's the way it's worked out. And it's a 6 o'clock Eastern tip. And we're going to take the over of 235 in this one tonight. Now, what's interesting is because Orlando was so great defensively last year, when they met an opening night, the total was 215.5. Orlando won that game 125-121. A month later, a little over a month later, the total went from 215.5 to 241. A 26-point jump, and Orlando won the game 106-105, so easily stayed under the total. We're going to go back and take the over here. Franz Wagner, he's out for the magic. Their leading scorer suffered a sprained ankle in their loss to the Knicks on Sunday. Paulo Banqueiro, he's back for Orlando. We know the Heat can score, and they've been pretty good offensively this season. I think after the 2-11 we saw, we're going to go the other way with it. Take the over coming up in tonight's NBA Cup quarterfinal matchup between the Heat and the Magic as our NBA. Hidden Jim.”
Magic 117, Heat 108 — Orlando beat Miami 117-108, a combined 225 points, so Over 235 busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“Yeah, they've got Stamkos and Marcheseau and guys like Brian O'Reilly for now. We'll see if they trade them off. There's plenty of rumors swirling, and it seems like all the sharks are sniffing the blood in the water right now. I don't know how the Predators have not fired Andrew Burnett quite yet as the head coach. Although I don't think he's the problem in Nashville. I think the problem is probably general manager Barry Trotz And speaking of Trotz Trotz came out the other day after the Predators had lost something like seven of their last eight And in a more colorful tone than I will put it here said, I need more for my players. And I'll let you look up the quote in your own spare time, and I won't say it on the air. But Nashville did go on a quick stretch after he said that, winning four out of five. And then they got bulldozed by the Hurricanes this past Saturday, six to three, and it was never even close in that one. They're probably coming into this game feeling pretty good about themselves after having won four of their last six. Maybe a few players and coaches bought themselves some more time before getting traded or even fired. But this game is just such a massive step up in competition for this Predators team. Now, remember, during that stretch when they won four out of five, they played Detroit, Chicago, Winnipeg, who we'll get to in a minute, but is severely depleted. Calgary, who's one of the worst teams in the league as well, and the Panthers, who are certainly depleted and have been for several weeks. So none of those teams are exactly part of murderer's row right now this season. Now they get a Colorado team that is trying to secure a winning road trip, two and one so far. They should put them at three and one. They lead the league in expected goal share. And they have also just lost one game in regulation since the first week of November. They're blowing teams out right now. I think it's them and Dallas one and two leading the NHL so far this year. Now, I really don't think you should overthink this one. This is far and away the biggest talent mismatch in the NHL tonight. I've watched this Predators team. I'm based here in Nashville. I watch them more than I care to admit. This is the slowest team in the NHL, and if you haven't watched the Colorado Avalanche play hockey this year, this is going to look like a major league team against a minor league team. it's on national TV as well. It's going to be on TNT just right after that Islanders game we talked about earlier. And the Avs are just going to, they're going to do their thing. In fact, if you want to get a little bit creative with this one, you can take the Avalanche minus the one and a half at plus 105, or you can parlay the Avalanche money line with the Nathan McKinnon to score a goal. That's actually going to get you at around plus 130. And FanDuel is going to let you get creative with that on that same game parlay. So I think the Avalanche should be able to name their score tonight. The Predators goaltending has fallen off quite a cliff. recently and they've got a couple of everyday defensemen that are out on this one so i expect this one to be a five to five to one final in bayroo colorado we'll take the avalanche minus the one and a half plus 105 for our below that special”
Predators 4, Avalanche 3 (SO) — Nashville beat Colorado 4-3 in a shootout, so Colorado Avalanche -1.5 does not cover (Colorado lost outright) (ESPN scoreboard).
“yeah well speaking of two teams really going in different directions. I don't think things can get much worse for the Jets without Connor Hellebuck in net. Now, yes, the two five and one since he had his knee surgery on the 22nd of November, they're giving up over three and a half goals a game. And you'd probably expect some struggles with Eric Convery coming in and taking the net. I mean, that's replacing the best or second best goaltender in the NHL with a guy who's just a career backup. But I think their problems go deeper. I mean, since Hellebuck went down, and this doesn't necessarily have a direct correlation, they're only scoring just over two goals a game, and they have no center depth. I mean, Jonathan Tays was signed in the offseason, and he was a fun story for a brief minute, but he's certainly not looking like he's his old self. They've demoted him down to a fourth-line winger spot, and outside of that, they're going with Adam Lowry, Vladislav Nimesnikov, and Morgan Barron down the rest of their center depth behind Mark Shifley. So that's just not good enough. I mean, this is a team that was certainly a cup contender last year. If I remember correctly, they won the president's trophy with the best regular most points in the regular season by the end of the year. And yet they can't score this year. And now they're giving up goals. And they've always been a low event structured hockey team, not giving up a ton of goals, but still averaging two and a half to three a game. And they're just not getting the goals anymore this year. Dallas, on the other hand, like I mentioned it earlier, they might be the second best team in the NHL behind the avalanche. They've lost once in regulation since the first week of November, just like Colorado has the 13, one and two in their last 16 games played. They've got a goal differential in that 16 games of plus 22 right now. They're scoring. They've scored 67 goals in the six, those 16 games. So they've also just lost one since the first week of November. They're coming off of a bit of a sluggish win over Pittsburgh at home, but now they can get up for a divisional road trip, a quick divisional road trip here. They've already beaten Winnipeg once this year, and they've only lost on the road in regulation once all season. I think this line is short, though. I think betters probably expect Winnipeg to play that more structured game at home. They just haven't been. They've been more high event and their goaltender is not giving them the big saves they need. is a big momentum mismatch right now. We're really betting on three teams that are going in opposite directions from their opponents right now. I think we got another 4-2, maybe even a 5-2 final. Give me the Dallas Stars money line. It's a short minus 130, minus 135 price tonight. That'll be a level one lock.”
Stars 4, Jets 3 — Dallas beat Winnipeg 4-3, so Dallas Stars ML covers (ESPN scoreboard).
“Well, I'll tell you what. I think the Kings can be happy to not see the Oilers tonight, but they are going to be seeing the Oilers in the playoffs. So they're at least the next couple of years after Connor McDavid signed that to your extension yesterday. With that being said, it should be a relief to see anybody other than the Oilers for them on opening night. You know, I'll probably hold off on tonight's two early games. Although I do think the Panthers are in a bit of a hangover spot after winning the cup for a second straight year and not having Sasha Barkov and Matthew Kachuk to help them out tonight. So we'll go with this late game in Los Angeles instead. The Kings come off yet another first round loss in the playoffs last year. And while I don't really think you can have a look ahead spot on your first game of the season, they do leave home right after this game to go play at Vegas, at Winnipeg and at Minnesota to start the season. So they've got a bit of a tough road stretch to start the season off right after tonight. Now, that said, they come into this one with the home team winning each of the last five games in this head-to-head series with Colorado. And most importantly, Colorado's biggest weakness, really going into last year and coming into this year, has been their goaltender. It's been McKenzie Blackwood, the uncertainty of what he would bring last year, and now coming into this year. Now, he was fantastic to start the season last year. In fact, he was the Vezina Trophy favorite for the first couple of months of the season until he dealt with some injuries. Well, he's coming into the season with more injuries right now. He's not even traveling with the team to Los Angeles. And they've got Scott Wedgwood backing him up on the road on primetime television to start the year. That's not good for a team that goes up and down the ice all night. They do give up high danger chances despite having guys like Kael McCarr in the back end. So for the Avalanche, they get Gabe Landis-Cogg back tonight. It's a great story that he's back in hockey. the several year recovery from some knee injuries and some other lower body injuries. As the captain of this team, it's understandable they're excited to get him back. But the Kings are also celebrating Andrzej Kopitar's final season home opener with the organization. He's going to be retiring at the end of this year. So they've got enough to celebrate on their own end. There's got to be enough to look forward to in this game. The Kings were still the best team in hockey last year. They went, I believe, 31-6-4 at Crypto.com Arena or Staples Arena, whatever you want to call it nowadays. This was the best team in hockey last year at home. Now, they struggled on the road, but until they proved me wrong, I'm going to keep betting on this team at home. They've got largely the same lineup as they did last year. They signed Corey Perry in the offseason. Now he's dealing with a long-term knee injury. And they've got Cody Cece on the back end to help things out a little bit. But at least on a game-by-game basis, I'm going to be betting this team at home. I'm going to keep doing it until they prove me wrong. Give me the LA Kings money line. Minus 120, minus 125 in a blowout special.”
LA 1, COL 4 — The Avalanche beat the Kings 4-1 in Colorado's season opener, so the LA Kings moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“And Jack, we're going to look at a strikeout prop today. Logan Gilbert takes the mound for the Mariners. This series all tied up at one, a couple 3-2 games. Detroit won the opener. Seattle won game two. So now headed to the motor city. I'll give you this time for Logan Gilbert, Jack. The Tigers haven't won a home game since September 6th. It's been that long. They haven't played a home game since middle of September. They got swept in back-to-back series by the Guardians and the Braves. Last time they won a home game was against the White Sox on September 6th. So it's been a hot minute for them. But Logan Gilbert takes them out for Seattle. He has owned Detroit so far this season in two starts, 10 strikeouts and nine strikeouts. His strikeout total today at six and a half. We're going to take the over on that. Detroit is fourth in Major League Baseball in strikeout rate. They strike out a ton and also give you this number two. Logan Gilbert, I don't think he qualified because he was out for a bit. But as far as strikeout rates, and he still pitched a good amount. He's not like a guy to the bullpen. But his strikeout rate is slightly higher than Tarek Skubal and Garrett Crochet. So this guy will rack up the strikeouts. Detroit strikes out a ton. I'm going to take the over six and a half on his strikeouts today. Mariners and Tigers, that's the series all set at one.”
SEA 8, DET 4 — Logan Gilbert struck out 7 in 6 IP as the Mariners beat the Tigers 8-4 in ALDS Game 3, over the 6.5 strikeouts line (ESPN box score). (Logan Gilbert: 7 K in 6 IP)
“You know, I do. Steve Eizerman, he's a Red Wings legend. He's been the general manager there since 2019 now, going on six years. He's not found any postseason appearances since he's been there. during that sort of rebuild after that 25-year stretch. But he brought in Todd McClellan last year. McClellan took over the Red Wings bench right after Christmas in 2024 of last season. And after he took over, they went 26-18-4. That's a 95-point pace and probably would have gotten them in the playoffs in the East or would have gotten them in the playoffs in the East if they had been there all season. Now, keep in mind that that came with a bottom 10 save percentage and goaltending position the rest of the way. I mean, I mentioned the bottom 10 save percentage because last year Detroit relied on five different goalies for multiple starts. Ville Juso, Cam Talbot, Alex Nedeljkovic, all these guys, mainly Cam Talbot and Alex Lyon, former Panther. Is it Lyon or Lyon? Lyon, the Lyon King. Lyon King. OK, so those two guys really took over the net. Now they've acquired John Gibson from Anaheim, the veteran goaltender who was really one of the best goaltenders of the last 10 years in the NHL. And he started to fall off a bit over the last several years due to injuries and just a struggling Ducks team. Gibson has plenty of motivation coming into this year. His career arch has really led to those most of us believing he's not a number one anymore. I think he can be. And I think when you're on a team like Anaheim where you're out of the playoff race by December or January, and the team can find a reason to put you on the shelf and give a young goaltender some run late in the year. They're going to do that. So I think he's got some motivation to be a number one again. And then at that point, Cam Talbot can slot into that number two, and he really can be one of the better number twos in the NHL. Now, the thing is, the Atlantic Division is really weird this year. I don't know a better way to describe the Atlantic Division. You would expect Toronto Tampa and Florida to make it and then you have Ottawa Montreal and Detroit sort of fighting for those final couple of spots in the wild card But this is yet again the division with probably the most parity in the NHL I mean, you'd expect all those teams, maybe even Buffalo, too, to be playing some tough hockey in April. Do I want to bank on this Red Wings team running up points in late season snooze fests for an over on their points prop? Not really. But do I think they can sneak in, especially at a price of plus 260? Yeah, absolutely I can. So I think they've got the good enough. They've got a much improved, though still young, bottom six forward group. They've got Mo Sider. They've got some better defensemen to help him out, again, on the younger side. And they finally got a veteran number one goalie, which I do think they've been missing the last couple years. So if I can give them a plus 260 to make the playoffs, I'm going to do it. Give me the Red Wings to be playing some April hockey. Plus 260, bet a little, win a whole lot.”
The Red Wings finished the 2025-26 regular season 41-31-10 (92 points) and were eliminated from playoff contention, missing the postseason (ESPN final NHL standings). (DET 41-31-10, 92 pts, missed playoffs)
“Let's put it this way to you. You have no faith in the Pittsburgh Penguins at all this season? I could not have less faith in the Pittsburgh Penguins this season. 74 and a half regular season points is where they're sitting right now on FanDuel. Let's start from the back with this Penguins team. In net, they had the fifth worst save percentage in all of hockey last year. They had Alex Nedeljkovic and Tristan Jari in net. Now, keep in mind, Jari was a second round pick about 10 years ago, but he struggled so much really since he got the number one spot in Pittsburgh about six or seven years ago that they relegated him to the backup behind Nedeljkovic last season. So what do they do to address those concerns? Well, they traded Nedeljkovic away and they brought in another backup in Arthur Seelogs, who used to play for the Vancouver Canucks and actually had to play some postseason hockey for them a couple of years ago against my Nashville Predators. So they've got two backup goaltenders fighting for a number one spot, Jari being one of them, who's already lost the starter spot, and Selah's, who's never really been talented or projected to be a number one goaltender. So don't expect much improvement from them in net after already struggling last year in terms of save percentage and several other goaltender statistics that we like to track. defensively, moving up the ice. They lost Matt Grislik and P.O. Joseph to free agency. They aren't big contributors, but all they did was add a guy in Caleb Jones, who's a fringe number six defenseman on a decent team. And it's not like the goalies were the only ones struggling to give up goals last year. I mean, this defense gave up the 10th highest expected goals per game, third worst in goals per game on average, and eighth worst high danger chances against per game as well in the NHL. Eric Carlson and Chris Letang are shells of their former selves, and the rest of these guys are fringe NHLers. In fact, Letang, I hope he's doing okay. It sounds like he's going to be ready for opening night tonight, but he's coming off of open heart surgery over the offseason. So he really is their number one. They may have some fours and fives outside of that, but they don't have any defensive depth, and I don't think Eric Carlson is much more than a power play quarterback at this year, at this point in his career, even if that. Up front, they have Sidney Crosby. I'll never speak poorly of Sidney Crosby. He's an incredible player, and then they've still got the last year of Evgeny Malkin coming in as well, but outside of that group of top three forwards, it's really Crosby, Malkin, and Brian Rust. They've got a bunch of middle six, bottom six guys and didn't improve their offense at all, and keep in mind last year, They put up, I think it was 80 points, 80 or 81 points last year by the time the season finished up. And that was with Crosby being fully healthy. He might have missed one or two games, but he played a full season last year and played MVP caliber hockey. This guy's got major injury history. He's on the other side of 35 now. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes on another injury this year. And if this guy misses 10, 15, 20 games in this season, I don't know. I don't see where this team's going to bring some goals in. So on top of all that, add in that they are led by a brand new head coach in Dan Mews. He's just 43 years old. He doesn't have much experience behind an NHL bench, let alone leading an NHL bench. I think he's set up for failure. Schedule wise, nine of their first 14 games are on the road. And I just don't really see how this team could possibly get off to enough of a good start to avoid trading off their stars by the deadline. I'm in the minority. I don't believe Crosby is going to get traded this year. I think he finishes his career in Pittsburgh. I just think it's going to be finishing with a bit of a dud. So give me the Pittsburgh Penguins under 74 and a half regular season points. That's a level three lock.”
The Penguins finished the 2025-26 regular season 43-27-12 with 98 points and clinched a playoff berth, well over the under 74.5 points line (ESPN final NHL standings). (PIT 43-27-12, 98 pts)
“Yeah, Kevin, I can't imagine anybody that's listening or watching to this show right now has seen a walk-off catcher's interference. In fact, it's been 54 years since that happened. So tough luck for the Red Sox last night. It's actually been some pretty tough luck for Christopher Sanchez, tonight's starter, so far this year. Not really because his numbers are misleading or he's struggling or anything like that, But this schedule is just not allowing him to pitch at home where he's at his best. In fact, since the start of May, he's had 13 starts and just four of those have come at home at Citizens Bank Ballpark. Now, he has a 296 ERA at Citizens Bank, but he's allowed more than two earned runs just once at home this season. And that was all the way back in April against the Dodgers when he had a bit of a blow up start. So he's really had some success at home so far this year. really outside of that one blow up and that can even balloon your ERA and 296 is nothing to to scoff at but when you give up I believe it was six earned runs in that one start it can it can really balloon pretty quickly now he's one of those guys I wanted to target out of this all-star break he really deserved to be in the all-star game but he was snubbed for Jacob Mizorowski it was a bit of a dramatic narrative going in with Mizorowski only having five starts before the all-star break and still getting the nod but the Phillies still paid his all-star bonus now I that Look, maybe it doesn't have much of an impact on the field, but it certainly has to give him a bit of a confidence boost and let him feel pretty good going into the second half. I'm not saying you're going to be betting him every start in the second half, but to have that boost going into your first start and the second half, I think is a good boost for him there. Now, on the other side of things, Richard Fitz is starting for the Red Sox. I believe we talked about him on the show before. He's not an all-star. He's not going to be down in the low twos or mid twos like Sanchez is. And he's really not going to blow you away with any of his other numbers. But he's got a 428 ERA with 28 strikeouts in about 33 innings pitched so far and a 1-2-1-8 whip. But just look at what he's done on the road. He's got a bit of a misleading stat line. I don't think he's won a start yet on the road. But in 18 innings, he's got a 2-5-0 ERA with 17 strikeouts in just three walks. The strikeout numbers are up on the road. The walk numbers are down. that's always a good sign. The team just hasn't given him much run support so far on the road this year. He's excelling at one specific thing this season though, and that's his chase rate. He's getting chases left and right on batters. He has a 34.8% chase rate. That's in the 95th percentile among qualified pitchers and is massive for a guy whose defense behind him is one of the worst in baseball. If he's getting these chases and these swings and misses, he's not relying on that Red Sox defense to make plays behind him. I mean, they've got 80 errors so far on the defensive side of things this year, does Boston. That's second most in baseball behind Shocker Colorado at 81. But the team in third is Cleveland with just 65 errors. So they got 15 more than third place team. Now, believe it or not, both bullpens have actually been better of late, which you don't historically say with the Red Sox and the Phillies over the last several years. So I'm going to play the full game under eight and a half runs here instead of the first five innings. But I do have a lot of confidence in both of these starters to give us a three to two, maybe a four to two game really late. And then we're relying on these bullpens to lock it down. So give me that under eight and a half between the Boston Red Sox and the Philadelphia Phillies. That's going to be a level one luck.”
PHI 4, BOS 1 — Phillies beat Red Sox 4-1 (5 combined runs); the under 8.5 cashes (ESPN box score).
“now let's look ahead to tonight and we're going to go with the dallas wings in the first quarter against the seattle storm they're getting two and a half three depends on where you look that's a 10 o'clock game out in seattle and a couple of notes here on why i like dallas now dallas has not been a good team overall but they have played well in the first quarter they get off of good starts, which is all you can ask for. The Wings this year, nine and one against the spread when they are a dog of two points or more in the first quarter. So pretty impressive that they do hang early in these games. And that last selection we had before the All-Star break against Las Vegas, they were actually up by seven right in the first quarter, ended up being tied, but still ended up covering as they were one and a half point underdogs against Las Vegas. So now when you look at the Seattle Storm, in the first quarter as a favorite at home, they are 1-8 against the spread, which is mind-boggling. In their last nine home games, they have led only twice at the end of the first quarter. And also in the last three first quarters, the Storm, 10, 10, and 14 points. So they have not started off well. In the first two matchups, Seattle has won both of those, but Dallas led at the end of the first quarter in each of them. We're going to ride the wings tonight and take them as a short underdog in the first quarter against the Storm.”
Seattle led Dallas 19-15 after the first quarter, a 4-point margin outside the Wings' +2.5; the spread busts (ESPN box score). (1Q: SEA 19, DAL 15)
“Yeah, well, look, I don't know what they're putting in that Marlins Kool-Aid, but I'm drinking And this team is fun. They're decent. And if I told you at the beginning of the year that they would be two games up on the Atlanta Braves come July 22nd, I think you would have checked me into a psych board. But here we are. They're only 10 and a half back on the NL East lead. Atlanta's 12 and a half back. And, you know, they're 23 and 20 since the start of June. That's nothing to shake your head at. They have a six best average batting average in baseball in that span as well. Now, I don't expect them to push for the postseason this year, but I do expect to have plenty of good opportunities to bet on them the rest of the season. This is a sleepy ballpark. It's not going to be sold out most nights. They might not even have a couple you know two or three thousand people in the stands every night And when you get a West Coast team traveling across the country to play a bit of a sleepy series against a team like this I wouldn be surprised if we see San Diego actually let this series slip away from them. Now, Edward Cabrera goes tonight for Miami, and he's one of those pitching prospects that have always been so highly touted in Miami's system but haven't really worked out. A lot like the Yuri Perez's of the world, Sixto Sanchez, even Jesus Lizardo before the trade. Those types of guys who haven't really shown their full potential. But it seems like Peter Bendix, the president of baseball operations for the Marlins, has figured something out with this system. Cabrera's biggest problem historically, this is a good example of maybe the changes he's made, not only with the staff, but with some of their scouting as well. Cabrera's biggest weakness in his career has been the 13.5% walk rate. The guy can throw. He's got some of the best stuff in baseball, but he can't necessarily place it where he needs to to stay competitive and at bats. But in 2025, that 13.5 percent career walk rate has dropped down to eight point six percent. Now, what has that done for him? He's got a three sixty one ERA and a three eighty seven expected ERA. Those are both career bests as well. So, again, when you're not giving free bases in the majors, you're giving yourself a chance to be competitive in these at bats. It seems self-explanatory to us, but when you just see the direct correlation between an ERA going down along with the wall crate going down, it explains a story on its own. Now, this really, in my opinion, kind of ends up being one of the bigger pitching mismatches of the day with Steven Kolek going for the Padres. This is a career reliever, but with Joe Musgrove and Michael King still out and Hugh Darvish sort of easing his way back into the rotation, all 12 of Colec's career starts have all come this year, despite having around 60 appearances in his career. He's just not a starter. If you look at his numbers, he really should not be in a World Series contending starting rotation. He's got a 424 ERA with a FIP up to 422. And he actually has worse numbers against teams below 500 than he does against teams with a winning record. A 445 ERA against a 422 ERA against teams with winning records. Now, the Padres have actually lost his last six appearances, and he's just not really getting much run support. In that span, they've scored just 19 runs in those six games. And I really don't like this matchup all that much for San Diego. You know, yeah, Cabrera can give up some home runs, but the Padres, for what we've known them to be over the last couple of years, are not a slugging team right now. In fact, I bet many people don't know this. They ranked just 27th in baseball with 86 home runs this year. For a team with Tatis and Machado and historically with even guys like Josh Bell, who they picked up at the deadline before and usually some more power in the catcher position, you'd think they'd have a more powerful lineup. They just don't. Luis Arias is really not hitting as well as he's used to this year. And he's obviously not a guy who's going to bring much power to that lineup. But that's where you take advantage of Cabrera. And I just don't see the Padres being able to do it this year. You know, San Diego, they have the bullpen advantage over just about any team in baseball with the league leading reliever ERA so far this year. But I'm not too worried about Cabrera really giving up a lead going into the sixth or seventh inning here. In fact, I think they can get to Colek early. So I'm not too worried about the bullpen blowing one here. I think this one's going to be a 7-2, 7-3 final. Give me the Miami Marlins money line. Minus 108, minus 110. That's a blowout special.”
MIA 4, SD 3 — Marlins beat Padres 4-3; the Miami moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“Yeah, well, don't look now, but he's heating up. He hasn't really hit all that well since joining the Giants. But over the last seven days, he's got a 313 batting average. He's got a 375 slug. Like he's even got a 455 batting average on balls in play over the last week, despite the Giants struggles. You know, you're even seeing Willie Adamas start to hit well. So it just seems like this Giants team, they're getting some key contributions from a lot of these guys individually, but they just haven't come together at the same time in the last several months. So, you know, Devers gets a great matchup tonight against rookie Davis Daniel of the Braves. I've been a Braves fan at least the majority of my life, and I don't even know much about Davis Daniel. The starting pitching injuries have really forced the Braves to throw bullpen games and really test their relievers. And Daniel, being a rookie, has only pitched in limited appearances so far this year. But with that being said, he primarily throws that fastball changeup combo to left-handed hitters. I actually preferred that as a lefty going back to my high school days and playing because you're not getting as much horizontal movement. You're not looking like you're swinging blindfolded on a couple of these sliders that are all of a sudden in the right-handed batter's box by the time they get to the plate. And apparently, that's what Rafi likes, too. I mean he hitting in his career against change And now as always of course weather matters probably more than anything else when you looking at going over on a guy total basis prop You check the forecast and right now the weather is blowing straight out to center field at around six to seven miles an hour for tonight. It's in the high 80s temperature-wise and 60% humidity. Things look good there. Again, that's perfect hitting weather. Whenever you're seeing high humidity, high temperatures, and wind blowing out to the outfield. Now, keeping in mind ballpark dimensions, you're in a good spot for hitters right there. That's also part of the reason why you see this total up at nine and a half and probably testing 10 by first pitch. Even if Daniel is able to keep Devers off the box score for his short outing, which I do only expect to go two to three innings max, you're looking at a brave bullpen that's been disastrous all season and has thrown 12 innings in the last three games, which is a pretty decent amount. So I like Devers here in this matchup. I think even if the Giants' struggles continue, he's going to be a guy to keep an eye on in the second half. Give me Rafi Devers over one and a half total bases at minus 115. It's a hidden gem.”
SF 9, ATL 0 — Rafael Devers went 2-for-5 with a double (3 total bases) as the Giants beat the Braves 9-0; clears the over 1.5 total bases (ESPN box score). (Devers 2-for-5, 1 2B, 3 TB)
“FanDuel.com line on this one. UC Irvine plus 1,000 to make the College World Series. Break this one down for us, Jack. Well, I'll warn you now. This is one of my favorite plays we've had in a while, and not just because I get to talk about the UC Irvine Anteaters and their college baseball program, But because college baseball season starts officially tomorrow on the 16th of February, with just a few powerhouse programs debuting for the season. And then most other teams start on Saturday. Now, last year's top three teams, LSU, Florida, and Wake Forest, are your favorites to win it all again this year. But people tune into this show because we dig in a little bit deeper, like you said. How about the UC Irvine Anteaters from the Big West? UC Santa Barbara and Cal State Fullerton are your more well-known college baseball programs from the conference, and UCFB is considered this year's favorite to win the Big West. But I think there is some room for an upset here. First off it important to note that Irvine was just outright snubbed on baseball selection Monday last year when they were left out of the field at 64 Similar to selection Sunday with college basketball the NCAA has a panel that determines who makes their final tournament, and then the finals are in Omaha every year. So looking at Irvine last year, this team had a hell of a resume. They had a top 30 strength of schedule in all college baseball, which is tough to do, especially in a lesser-known conference like the Big West. they had the best road record in college baseball at 19-6, and they actually went 8-1 against the Pac-12 and 10-2 overall against Power 5 opponents. So this team wasn't just some fluke. They weren't just taking advantage of a week's schedule. They had a really good roster and coaching staff last year. Now, you might think that's sort of water under the bridge for these programs because players graduate, get drafted, transfer, and you have new players coming in. But what if I told you UCI returns every single at-bat from the 2023 season? They bring back not only a top 30 offense and a top 30 pitching staff, they also bring back Nick Pinto, who leads Division I baseball with 46 career starts. So not only are you getting back the most experienced starting pitcher in college baseball, you are bringing back every single player from that offense in 2023 that held a top 30 statistical portfolio. Yes, this team isn't going anywhere, frankly, and they have plenty to prove this team. There's just something about being left out of a tournament like that. We see it a lot in college basketball that motivates these younger athletes even more than some professionals when they get the opportunity to come back the next year and prove these teams wrong. Now, obviously the 2023 roster wasn't too flawed in and of itself. Woody Hayden, who was actually the all-star game MVP in the Appalachian Summer League last year, will be back from injury this year. First baseman Anthony Martinez is back too, and he's considered an elite draft prospect. This team is just loaded from top to bottom, and they clearly have the experience to be back in the hunt. You look around the rest of the Big West Conference, and you have to expect teams like Fullerton and Cal State Northridge and Hawaii to take a couple of steps back. Frankly, if Irvine hadn't been swept by Hawaii in their final series of the season last year, I think this team makes the tournament no problem with a chance to advance to Omaha pretty easily. But no, they don't have the eighth starting pitcher that a lot of these teams have, but this team's depth and their upper class and leadership I think is going to take them a really long way in 2024. So keep an eye out for the UC Irvine and Eaters to sneak into Omaha in a chakra this year at plus 1,000, Bet a Little win a whole lot.”
UC Irvine made the 2024 NCAA tournament (Corvallis Regional) but went 2-2, losing twice to Oregon State (3-5, then 6-11), and was eliminated without reaching the College World Series in Omaha (Wikipedia, 2024 UC Irvine Anteaters baseball season). (UC Irvine 45-14, eliminated 2-2 in the Corvallis Regional)
“The FanDuel.com line on this one. The Miami Marlins under 78.5 wins on the season. Go ahead and break this one down for us, Jack. Yeah, I'll go ahead and text Lee now and let him know he doesn't need to listen to today's show. As a Marlins fan, I hate to break it, but I just think this team is going to struggle in 2024. Pitchers and catchers for the Dodgers and Padres reported last week as they start the season internationally this year in South Korea. and the rest of the league will report this week as the season begins on the 28th of March. So we're a little bit early with this play, but I do think that this line is going to move now that better focus will shift from the NFL to all these other sports. You know, I've followed the Marlins offseason pretty closely this year for a variety of reasons. And I have to say I think this team looks like they just going to kind of mail it in in 2024 Now first off in October they let Kimberly Ng who aside from being the first female general manager in MLB history was also a fantastic front office figure. They let her walk because she was facing a demotion when they wanted to hire a president of baseball operations in the offseason. I think that sent a bit of a ripple effect through the rest of this organization because they've hired Peter Bendix to run baseball operations, and he is on the forefront of the analytics approach to baseball. He was with the Tampa Bay Rays, who are known as an analytical spearhead in the baseball world. They've hired him to run baseball operations this year, and I think he's going to start taking this roster in quite a different direction. So that is one thing to keep in mind with this team. Now, as far as the roster goes, I think this team is going to be in shambles offensively in 2024. I mean, the subtractions from the lineup are somewhat significant. Jorge Soler and his 36 home runs are gone. Joey Wendell, Uli Gurriel, and Jacob Stallings were all regulars in the lineup in 2023, and now they're gone. So look at who have they replaced those losses with. Nick Gordon, Christian Betancourt, and now Vidal Brujan. Those are all borderline minor leaguers at this stage in their careers. They still don't have a major league level shortstop, so they can really only go so far defensively. And if you just look at what they accomplished in 2023 versus their expectations, I think this team is unfortunately going to fall off a cliff. They ranked 26th in baseball, and in fact, they were actually 15th out of 15 teams in the National League in runs. And they still ended up with 84 wins, which was nine wins more than they're expected. Or in baseball world, the Pythagorean win model reflected. In other words, they're expected win total from last year. if you looked at their analytical stuff, was around 75 wins. They actually won more than they were expected to and won more than their statistics suggested they should have. In fact, their offense this year does not return or have a single guy on the roster that reached even 20 home runs in 2023. And I get it. This team has relied on starting pitching for years. But what do you do now? Because Sandy Alcantara is out for the entire 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Now, they'll get big innings from their starters, undoubtedly, Hazard's Rosardo, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett. There are plenty of guys to rely on as starters. But again, not a single guy in their rotation is above the age of 26 this year. And how much can you rely on those starters against offenses like the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies and the National League, let alone the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks and the other teams throughout the National League? This just isn't a year for Miami to compete. I think they know that. and I think they know that they can expect to trade off some valuable trade pieces by the deadline and consider 2024 a wash. This team has a bright future. It's just not coming in 2024. So give me the Miami Marlins under 78 and a half wins. A hidden gem.”
The Miami Marlins finished the 2024 regular season 62-100, well under the 78.5-win total (ESPN team schedule). (MIA 62-100)
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Devils minus 122 versus the Kings. Break this one down for us. Well, these are really two teams that I think are moving in opposite directions. The Devils and the Kings are. L.A., if you'll remember, they started off the season with 11 straight road wins. which set an NHL record and they looked like potential favorites to come out of the Western Conference. Since that road winning streak was snapped, they're 8-12-7 overall and they're 4-7-4 on the road That just 27th in the league in terms of their road record since then So they went from breaking records across the NHL for road win streaks to start the season to being in the bottom five They're 29th in goals scored in that span, and they're 31st in shooting percentage. It's not as if this team is creating a ton of chances and just getting unlucky. They're just not converting, and they're not coming close, frankly. The special teams have been a problem on both sides of the puck, and obviously the goal tending has given them some troubles as well. It has been exactly one month since they scored more than four goals in a game. And frankly, things got so bad that they fired head coach Todd McClellan after general manager Rob Blake said in January that McClellan's job was safe for the rest of the season. So if you can imagine the turmoil in the locker room when your general manager comes out and says the head coach's job is secure for the rest of the year. And two weeks later, things get so much worse that he changes course and ends up terminating the head coach. Things just aren't going well, not only in upper management, but in the locker room itself. Now, they hired or they promoted assistant coach Jim Hiller to be the interim head coach. How has he done in his first two games behind the bench? Well, they beat up on the Edmonton Oilers in his debut, but they follow that up with a 7-0 loss at Buffalo on Tuesday. This team is just not right. I don't think it was the head coach or his staff that was the problem. But the roster and upper management are just not getting the job done here. but not meshing well, I think they have some serious problems, especially some that New Jersey itself can exploit. This Devils team does seem like they're turning things around a little bit, especially now that Jack Hughes, their captain, is back in the lineup. He missed the month of January with an injury, but since his return, the team is averaging 39 and a half shots per game, which leads to the NHL. He has looked like his usual self on the ice as well. If you go back and watch his skates and his shifts, he's looking like he's back to his normal self. We often talk, too, on the show about not backing teams in a star player's first game or two back from injury. That has been the case here. Hughes did struggle in his first two games back from injury, but now that he has settled in, he has two goals in his last two games, he's starting to play with his speed and playmaking ability that we're used to. Keep in mind also that the Devils and Kings ranked third and fourth in the NHL in expected goals over the last 25 games. The major difference between the two, though, is that New Jersey is getting their good bounces and they're converting their chances. They're shooting just over 10% over the last 25 games. L.A., on the other hand, they're second to last in the NHL at 5.76% in terms of their shooting percentage over the last 25 games. I think we might see more changes from the Kings organization after this one. Take the New Jersey Devils money line tonight, minus 122, a level two lock.”
1-2 — The LA Kings beat the New Jersey Devils 2-1 on a late Quinton Byfield goal; the Devils moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“The Capitals coming in this one 18 wins 11 losses 6 overtime losses The Devils 19 wins 14 losses 2 OT losses We going to talk about the team total for the Washington Capitals over two and a half goals versus the New Jersey Devils That the FanDuel line on that one Jack, break it down for us. You know, the Washington teams are another team that are really exceeding expectations this year. They were not a fun team or even a good team to watch in the first month and a half of the year, but they've really turned it around since mid-November. In fact, they're 13-7-4 since November 10th, which is about league average, but would have them in a playoff spot if the season ended today. Neither the offense nor the defense or goaltending has really stuck out to me for them. You know, they're just 31st offensively in goals per game and 23rd in goals against per game. But I really like their situational spot here to bet on their offense to come through in this one. I'm going to leave the goaltending out of it. I'll get into that in a minute. You know, the Capitals really struggled to do anything with the puck the last five or six games in December. They went one and four going into the new year with just five goals scored in that span. But the Caps came out in the quick New Year's break with four first-period goals against Pittsburgh last night and a big win. And they come out of the break now with no major injuries. They're also just now getting their second five-game homestand of the entire season. They've had a ton of travel so far this year. And the first one, the first five-game homestand was back in October. Not only that, but three of these five matchups coming up in this homestand are against divisional opponents. So I think this game can be quite a bit of a rallying cry to galvanize this team heading into the second half and heading into the new year, as they've really surprised themselves quite a bit so far. Now, for New Jersey, it's been more of the same each month of this year. They put together a winning month of December, but they allowed 3.42 goals per game in the month of December. And in that span, it's just not going to cut it for this team moving forward. Vitek Vanacek, their number one goalie, has arguably been the worst goalie in hockey this year. And Akira Schmidt, his backup, has been even worse and, in fact, got sent down to the minors just last week. So that means tonight they're either going to be stuck with Vanacek and his 3.25 goals against average, or 23-year-old Nico Dawes, who has just 26 games of NHL experience and has only played once or twice so far this year. So defensively, I really don't think this team can be improved until Dougie Hamilton gets back. And we just talked about how bad the goal thing has been so far this year. I'm going to stick with the team total here because I think Washington will likely be using a backup goalie in Hunter Shepard in this one. And he has been inconsistent at best. At the same time, all the signs here point to a solid offensive showing for them in D.C. tonight. Give me the Washington team total over two and a half goals minus 140. Hidden Jim.”
Capitals scored 3 goals in a 6-3 loss to the Devils, clearing the Washington Capitals team total over 2.5 (ESPN box score). (WSH 3, NJD 6)
“We going to talk about Nathan McKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche Currently has 61 total points on the season That 20 goals and 41 assists FanDuel line on this one Nathan McKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche currently has 61 total points on the season That 20 goals and 41 assists FanDuel line on this one Nathan McKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche to win the Hart Trophy plus 380 Jack, break this one down for us. Yeah, you know, Connor McDavid is still the favorite to win the Hart Trophy. It's hard to argue that he shouldn't win it every year at this point in his career. But he did have a bit of a slow start this year, And I can't help but believe that Nathan McKinnon should have the same, if not shorter, odds to win the award at this point. We're about halfway through the year, maybe a little bit less than halfway through the year. And for all his accomplishments so far in his career, McKinnon does not have a Hart Trophy, despite being voted in the top six five different times in 11 years. This year, he's been different. The rest of the Avalanche roster has really struggled. But McKinnon had 61 points in 38 games. That's good for third in the NHL. He's still getting some of the toughest defensive matchups for Colorado, as well as, obviously, as the captain and the first-line center. He's playing a little bit of penalty kill as well. He ranked second in the NHL in power play points. And even in December alone, he put up 29 points in 15 games. That broke the Colorado Avalanche and Quebec Nordiques franchise record for most points in a single month. since the 1980s. Now, what's helping McKinnon's argument, too, is that he could get even better at this point. He's got a shooting percentage of 11.8. Now, that's pretty good, but for a guy with such a lethal shot, he's going to have a stretch at some point this year for 15 to 20 games where he's shooting closer to 15 to 20%. So right now, he's at league average. He's very sustainable at 11.8, and he could even get even hotter than that. The Avalanche are still first in the Central Division right now, too, which does go a long way for these MVP voters. And now, if McKinnon can help this team to a playoff spot while at least at the moment scoring 14 more points than anybody else on his squad, I think he'll have this award wrapped up by the end of March. Give me Nathan McKinnon to win the NHL's Hard Trophy plus 380. Bet a little, win a whole lot.”
Nathan MacKinnon won the 2023-24 Hart Memorial Trophy as NHL MVP (Wikipedia, citing NHL award record). (2023-24 Hart Trophy: Nathan MacKinnon)
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Hawks are plus two versus OKC. Break this one down for us, Jack. Yeah, well, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of, if not the biggest stories in the NBA season so far. And they really put a cherry on top of that last night with an emotional win at home against what I consider a top four team in the NBA in the Boston Celtics who they knew they needed to be to be able to start beating their chest like they have been Well mission accomplished But now what Now teams have been served notice and they going to have a bullseye on their uniforms. I think that starts tonight with the Atlanta Hawks, who frankly might be the most disappointing team in the NBA with a cruddy 13 and 19 record and an NBA worst 7 and 25 record against the spread. In November, when these two teams played first, every starter in that game for the Thunder outplayed every starter for Atlanta. Even with a 40-30 run in the fourth quarter, the Hawks still lost that game by nine points in Oklahoma City. Well, now we get the rematch as Oklahoma City has to play on back-to-back nights after notching their biggest win of the season. Trey Young scored 40 points in his last game, and he's one of the streakiest shooters in the NBA. We've talked about this many times. Teams go on 10-game runs in the NBA. I'm going to get on the start of that 10-game run for the Atlanta Hawks tonight. It takes guts to go out with the worst spread record in the NBA, but I'm bringing the heat here. The wrong team's favorite. The Atlanta Hawks win straight up over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday night in the NBA.”
ATL 141, OKC 138 — Hawks beat the Thunder 141-138, so Atlanta Hawks moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel line on this one We going to look at the total goals Tampa Bay versus Florida under 6.5 goals minus 108. Break this one down for us. Yeah, you know, the battle of Florida, the Lightning against the Panthers, is really one of the better rivalries in hockey nowadays. Obviously, it's a non-traditional market and some non-traditional teams. But these have been two of the more successful teams in hockey over the last 5 to 10 years. and it's really allowed this rivalry to grow quite a bit. It's also been known as one of the highest scoring rivalries in hockey throughout the 2010s and the 2020s. Both teams have ranked in the top five or top ten in scoring. It's about every year of the last ten. But things have been very different for both sides during the first half of this season. And I just don't think the books have really caught up to that quite yet. In fact, Florida ranks just 25th in goal scoring in the entire NHL at 2.91 goals per game, despite ranking third offensively in the NHL since 2017. Now look at the other side, the Tampa Bay Lightning. They ranked just 13th in goals per game this season, despite leading the NHL overall in scoring since 2017. Another oddity about this matchup has been the Lightning's start to this season. They were just awful without Andre Vasilevsky during the first two months of the year. The goaltending was abysmal. They were five games under 500, and they even had a negative goal differential. That's just not something you expect from this Bolts group under John Cooper and its management. It hasn't been the offense that has really helped them turn things around over the last 10 games either, though. They're 7-3, headed into the Christmas break, and they gave up less than three goals per game in that stretch to really get back on track. Now, notably, Pat Celeste was in net for all seven of those wins, racking up a 9.25% save percentage along the way. He had a back surgery just prior to the season. He came back in mid to late November, and he really struggled at first, but ever since he started to get back into his routine, he's back to his old self. And when he's back to his old self, I think we all know this is undoubtedly the best goaltender in hockey right now. For Florida, we've talked about their turnaround quite a bit this season. They started out the year without two of their top defensemen, Aaron Eckblad and Brandon Montour. both guys came back on the same night in mid-November and guess what Florida has been one of the most solid defensive teams in the NHL since then I think a lot of people have this preconceived notion that the Panthers and Lightning are just run and gun high scoring teams that make the postseason on hot offensive streets or strong power plays but that just hasn't been the case especially for the Panthers this year in their last 11 excuse me 17 games since Eklad and Montour came back the under is 13 and 4 overall in their game now with these teams matching up you do always have to be careful with special teams because there are just so many fights and retaliation calls and dirty plays that are called on each team but again florida ranks in the top eight and penalty kill in the nhl and bottom 10 when they're on the main advantage so far this season now tampa they're a power play it's still pretty elite but their special teams work defensively has really, really improved since Andre Vasilevsky came back from his injury in December. Not a surprise there. I think this is a 3-1, 3-2 game yet again here. Maybe a playoff-style atmosphere, but no matter what, we're taking the under 6.5 goals tonight as the battle of Florida takes center stage in the NHL as we resume the NHL season.”
FLA 3, TB 2 — Panthers beat Lightning 3-2; combined 5 goals stays under 6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Fandle.com line on this one. the Islanders money line minus 115 versus the Penguins. Break this one down for us Jack Well you know coming out of the long Christmas break you don get any of these breaks throughout the hockey season every year And so you don get a lot of these trends or situational advantages to hone in on in that first game back There's not a lot of advantages because teams are on back to backs or because they're in the middle of a long road trip. And a lot of times they don't even have a ton of injuries that are still lingering from the Christmas break. So how do you find an edge? Well, one of those edges is in your power rankings. I update mine every five to seven days. I really dig into the analytical beta, the injury, strength of schedule, and other factors to rank each NHL team. You'll see a lot of professional football handicappers like we will do this with bowl games and in the playoffs as well. But at this point in the NHL season, you just cannot justify putting the Pittsburgh Penguins anywhere near the New York Islanders right now. Pittsburgh won four of their last six heading into the break, yes. But those four wins came against the Canadians and Coyotes. and then the Wild and the Hurricanes, who are just in disarray right now, coming out of the break. So a four out of six stretch, that can be impressive if you're facing some playoff teams or maybe even over a larger sample size. But against those four teams, I'm just not that impressed. The power play still struggled all season. The goaltending has been there, but the forwards haven't been, or the forwards have been there and the goaltending hasn't been. It just hasn't clicked for Pittsburgh so far this season. Now the Islanders, on the other hand, they were awful to start the year. They lost seven straight in mid-November. They couldn't stop the puck. They couldn't put the puck in the other team's net. It was just basic hockey that they couldn't figure out under Lane Lambert, their head coach. The rumors started to swirl that Lane Lambert was going to be fired, and the team was going to trade away some of their key pieces and maybe even start the rebuild. Even still, right now, guys like Anders Lee, their captain, and Kyle Palmieri are really struggling. And Zach Parisi is sitting on his couch as a free agent. Despite what you have over 20 goals left here as an Islander. Somehow the team keeps plugging along, though. The goaltending has been incredible so far this year. Probably the best goaltending duo in the NHL right now, with both guys maintaining a save percentages over 9-12. And they're another team, just like the Florida Panthers, who we talked about a minute ago, that has really flipped the script this year. Usually known as a defensively-minded team, the Islanders are 15th in goals per game this year, and they ranked 6th on the power play so far. In fact, I had to go back and look. It's been five full seasons since the Islanders ranked in the top 10 in power play percentage, dating back to the 2017-2018 season. So this team is presenting new looks to opponents. They're scoring from a variety of different resources. I just don't see how Pittsburgh can keep up with them here, especially with the lack of defensive depth right now. I'll take one of the hottest teams in the NHL tonight to keep it rolling and start off the post-Christmas rush with another victory, Something like 4-1, 4-2 final. Give me the New York Islanders money line, minus 115, level 2 lock.”
PIT 7, NYI 0 — Penguins routed Islanders 7-0, with Kris Letang becoming the first defenseman in NHL history with five points in a period; New York lost outright, busting the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Oklahoma State, minus 2.5 versus Texas A&M. Break this one down for us. Yeah, we've talked a lot about motivation and how important it is when handicapping college football bowl games in the past. Texas A&M had hopes to challenge for the SEC title this year. They had a veteran roster, but injuries, losses, poor performance, and even some inner turmoil reached such a state that head coach Jimbo Fisher was fired normally too when an assistant is hired from a team where the coach is fired for a coordinator position they leave immediately Now the problem here for the Aggies is that they so dysfunctional in the program right now that their interim head coach for this game is Elijah Robinson who already accepted the job as defensive coordinator at Syracuse. And he's actually taking a slew of Texas A&M transfers with him, but he's still coaching in this game. Just give him a few more weeks to convince more of these four- and five-star talents to leave while he's at it. You might as well. If I was the athletic director at Texas A&M, I'd have the strength coach leading this program today before this turncoat. But, you know, whoever is left on the roster is probably into the week only for the free gift that the Texas Bowl gives out at this point. You know, the two seniors are still involved, and they're going to lead the Cowboys tonight as Oklahoma State quarterback Alan Bowman actually sees the job midseason this year. He accounted for 14 touchdowns, and his number one target, Brennan Presley, really exploded late in the year with a total of 85 catches coming into the bowl game. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is down to their third-string quarterback in Jalen Henderson, who has lost most of his targets, who decided to enter the draft or enter the transfer portal like we already talked about. So you can just see these are two programs heading in different directions right now. I think Texas A&M just wants to get out of this season and try to bandage things together. but you've got some veteran players on that Oklahoma State roster that really want to take advantage of this bowl game. I'm going to go with the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus 2.5. Cowboy up. We're going to go all the way up on a Wednesday. Level 3 lock.”
OKST 31, TA&M 23 — Oklahoma State beat Texas A&M 31-23 in the Texas Bowl; the Cowboys' +8 margin covers the -2.5 spread (Wikipedia).
“FanDuel.com line on this. The Philadelphia Flyers that make the playoffs plus 108. Break this down for us, Jack. Yeah not just seventh in their division last year but 26th in the league overall They really struggled last season But we at the 30 point of the regular season for most NHL teams and that was a really good time to look back at your preseason power rankings, the teams you thought you were going to be contenders, pretenders, teams in the lottery running, and reflect on who is impressed or disappointed, and more importantly, who you think can either keep up what they've been doing or turn around their struggles or maybe they seem like a bit of a paper tiger and they could fall apart in the second half of the year. This is even more significant considering that something like 76% of the teams who are out of a playoff spot as of Thanksgiving do not ultimately make the playoffs and vice versa for teams who are in a playoff spot historically. So you're not going to see as much change in the postseason picture as you might expect the rest of the way this year. You also really want to pinpoint some teams you think can get can and will get better at the deadline. And I actually think the Philadelphia Flyers are destined to do just that. They're the biggest surprise of the NHL season by far to me so far. In a division with the New Jersey Devils, the New York Rangers, Carolina Hurricanes, and even the Pittsburgh Penguins, all of which were considered cup contenders this year, Philly ranked second in the Metro with 39 points in 31 games so far. A big reason for that is Carter Hart. He turned his career around if you're ranking top 10 in both save percentage and goals against average. And this defensive group is just solid all around. They don't have any big names that jump out at you. But youngster Cam York, Travis Sanheim, and even Nick Steeler are all playing the best hockey of their careers right now. It's not as if this team is chasing the puck all game and getting really lucky on either end with some big saves or big lucky goals. They rank seventh in the NHL in expected goals percentage, seventh in high danger chances percentage, and 14th in shot attempts percentage. So they're possessing the puck, and they're putting shots on net. They're not just putting shots on net. They're getting good quality opportunities on net, and they're limiting good quality opportunities on their own side. There is concern with the offense drying up pretty early in the season right now, but the offense ranks just 19th in shooting percentage to date, And that is bound to recover quickly. Shooting percentage is one of those statistics in the NHL where if your advanced metrics like expected goals percentage or high danger chances percentages are up in the top five, top ten, you should see the shooting percentage start to join that top ten, top five ranking pretty quickly. You look at the other teams around them in the division that are struggling as well. And sure, if the Devils and the Hurricanes, they should be back in contention by March or April, especially if either or both of them picks up some goal-to-me help on the way. But just about every team in this Metro division needs a lot of help to get back into things if you're not the Flyers or the Rangers. If you look at Philly, they have about $3.5 million in cap space at the deadline as of right now. They've got some dead caps, but they've got plenty of young prospects to deal for a proven forward if this team does decide they want to be contenders this year and make some moves at the deadline to improve the roster. And they've got a middling schedule the rest of the way, just 16th-ranked strength of schedule the rest of the season. Head coach John Tortorella, he has a way of coaching these very weak teams into the postseason in the past when they really don't have any expectations. We've seen him do it with the Columbus Blue Jackets most recently. I think he gets it done again here. I think the Philadelphia Flyers shock the NHL world and make the 2024 postseason at plus 108. That's a pretty good hidden gem.”
Flyers missed the 2023-24 NHL playoffs, eliminated April 16, 2024 after a 2-1 loss to Washington; finished 38-33-11 (87 pts), 6th in the Metro (Wikipedia). (PHI 38-33-11, 87 pts, missed playoffs)
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Kings and Kraken under 6.5 goals, minus 140. Break this one down for us, Jack. Yeah, I think this is a really sleepy, sleepy Pacific Division matchup in Los Angeles tonight. Things are starting to slip away for the Seattle Kraken this year, and you can blame a lot of that on the offense. They've only scored 89 goals on the season, which ranks them in the bottom 7 of all NHL teams. And that only gets worse on the road. They rank 28th in goals per game away from Climate Pledge Arena. In fact, since Thanksgiving, this team's gone 2, 6, and 4. Now, during that stretch, they scored just 29 goals in those 12 games. Now, they're dealing with a couple of major injuries up front with Jaden Schwartz, Jared McCann, and Andre Bjerikowski all down and out right now, but they just haven't found a replacement in the top six. Guys that were hopeful that could step it up this year like Matty Beniers and Jordan Eberle, both have just 15 points so far. So this team, they really, you know, one of the big concerns for them last year and this year was they didn't have a proven elite goal scorer, maybe a superstar up front for them. That's really coming back to bite them right now as their depth is being challenged. Now, you look at the other end of things, the offense hasn't been spectacular for the Kings recently either. They broke an NHL record 11 straight road wins to start the season. But I think the emotion of breaking that record might have gotten to them a little bit. Since then, they're 2-2-1 with just 12 goals in five games. The goaltending from Cam Talbot has really been impressive, and it should obviously be helpful in a game like tonight. But we've seen a trend with the Kings recently, especially on the back-to-back like we have tonight, given that L.A. played the Sharks last night. On the back end of games in consecutive nights, the Kings have to be under in four straight and in seven of their last 10 games. Even when they've had the lead in games recently, they have maybe the best defensive forward group in the NHL to shut the game down. They're not much of a counterattack team. They're not going to turn you over at the blue line and create two-on-ones and go down and score and run up the score. But they've got Trevor Moore, Andre Kopitar, and obviously an elite defensive group that can really shut this game down if they get out to a 1-0 lead early. I just don't see where you're going to find more than three goals on either side of this matchup tonight. Taking under six and a half goals here. We should see a three to one, three to two game here. A level one lock.”
LAK 1, SEA 2 — Kraken beat Kings 2-1 in Seattle; combined 3 goals, well under 6.5 (ESPN box score).
“com line on this one. Duke minus two versus Baylor Bears. Break this one down for us, Jack. Yeah, well, in their first real road test of the season, the Baylor Bears, they failed miserably on Saturday on the road at Michigan State, losing that one 88-64. The main reason for that failure was because Jacoby Walker is just in a bad shooting slump. He's shooting less than 43% for five straight games now. The Baylor defense has really failed to live up to the hype as well. They're allowing almost 70 points per game. That places them at just 149th in the country. so far this year. Then you look at Duke, Kyle Filipowski. He's really lived up to the Batman billing this season, scoring at least 25 points on four different occasions already. And then Jeremy Roach, he's playing his Robin role to a tee. He's scoring at least 18 points on five different occasions so far. You know, you look at Baylor's easy early schedule. I just don't think it's prepared them well for this neutral site game at Madison Square Garden where Duke's players have probably played there more times combined in all-star games than most Billy Joel fans see him perform monthly over the last decade. So I think you're going to see a Baylor team that's outmatched in this one. I've got the Duke Blue Devils big over the Baylor Bears on Wednesday night as a minus-two-point favorite. Get me the Duke Blue Devils, a level-three lock.”
DUKE 78, BAY 70 — Duke beat Baylor 78-70 at Madison Square Garden; Duke's -8 margin covers the -2 spread (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one Dreisaitl to record a goal plus 100. Break this one down for us Jack. Yeah Leon Dreisaitl he looks like his usual self to open the season for the Edmonton Oilers. Like you said he's got the two goals in his first three games and he's already registering over four shots on goal per game with nine so far this year. One of the big advantages in handicapping player props for guys like Drysaddle is that he plays more than almost any other forward in the league at over 22 minutes the last two years. That remains the case this season. He has an average time on ice of 23 minutes and 11 seconds so far, which is a top 10 in the NHL. Most of these forwards in the NHL, even some of the best, They're playing 19, 20 minutes, maybe 21 minutes a game. But with the poor depth up front that Edmonton has, it's been the Connor McDavid and Leon Dreisaddle show for the last couple of years up there for the Oilers country. Edmonton has really struggled so far defensively this season, but they're still generating power plays at the eighth best clip in the NHL. And Dreisaddle's getting plenty of time on that man advantage. He had 32 power play goals last season. The next closest was his teammate, Connor McDavid, who had just 21 goals. So he led the NHL last year in power play goals by 11. And he's getting plenty of opportunities this year on that main advantage as well. The best of all for Dreisaitl, though, is he's a matchup nightmare for this Nashville Predators defense. We've talked about it before. Every once in a while, we talk about guys who just have one team's number. You know, we talk about they had great historical statistics and luck against certain opponents. And Drysaddle against the Predators really embodies it. 23 career games played versus Nashville. Drysaddle has 22 goals in 13 assists for 35 points. That's almost a goal per game in 23 games. You know, it's not like this is a small sample size where he's played five or six games against him. 23 career games, he's got 22 career goals. And even better, in his last 12 games against the Predators, he has seven multi-goal games. So I was looking around on FanDuel before I placed this wager myself, and he's plus 650 to score two plus goals in this game. So if you want to take the odds there as well, he's got seven multi-goal games in his last 12 against Nashville. I'm taking Leon Dreisaitl to score a goal tonight against the Nashville Predators in Nashville. Hey, Jim.”
EDM 6, NSH 1 — Leon Draisaitl scored two power-play goals and added two assists as the Oilers routed the Predators 6-1; Draisaitl to score a goal hits (ESPN box score). (2G, 2A vs Nashville)
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Sabres' money line, minus 120 versus Lightning. Jack, break this one down for us. Well, what a brutal start for the Tampa Bay Lightning this year. You couldn't ask for a tougher start to the season. They started the year with a home opening win against the Nashville Predators, which we talked about on the show. But they immediately had to jump on a flight to Detroit after that. Then after that, they crossed the border to Ottawa for another divisional matchup against the Senators. And now they're ending an early season three-game road trip at Buffalo before they go home for a five-game home stretch. Now, the gold-sitting situation is already so uncertain that the Lightning had to start 29-year-old Matt Tompkins in net on Sunday night against the Senators. Have you ever heard of a guy named Matt Tompkins who's a goalie in the NHL? No, not at all. I sound like a basketball player. Exactly. And neither have I. And I'll tell you why. Because that was his career debut. Wow. After spending three years in minor league hockey in the AHL, he spent two years in the Swedish Hockey League over in Sweden before he signed actually a minor league or a two-way deal with Tampa this season. So Sunday was his career debut at the age of 29. And by the way he didn start very well And I tell you what their number one goaltender in front of him has not been very good either We talked about Jonas Johansson before the season opener as well He has a 409 goals against average in just an 889 save percentage in his first two starts this year so far So he's really holding up his end of the bargain here. Defensively, the Lightning have just struggled, but they're not getting bailed out by their goaltending as long as Andre Vasilevsky is on the shelf after that surgery. Then you look at Buffalo. I really think you're getting a good situational spot with them here, too. They lost their first two games of the season. Both of those games, the Rangers and the Islanders, with the Islanders being on the road, were really, really tough matchups for them. The Islanders like to slow things down and play more of a boring brand of hockey. And the Rangers have just owned them for the last 10 to 15 years coming into that matchup. Now, the Sabres, they did get an extra night off before this one. I think it's going to create a good buy low spot for them. as they start to round into form. You know, again, with the travel situation for the Lightning and the Sabres starting off 0-2, I think this is a good time to get them win, when in reality this line should probably be minus 135, minus 140. Give me the Buffalo Sabres money line, minus 120, a level two lock.”
BUF 3, TB 2 — Sabres beat the Lightning 3-2 in overtime on a Dylan Cozens winner; Buffalo moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“Fandle.com line on this one. Phillies and Diamondbacks over 7.5 runs, minus 110. Break this one down for us. You know, I think if we learned anything from last night's Game 1, I think it's that this Arizona offense can keep up with the Phillies' powerful lineup. It doesn't seem like anyone is going to stop Philadelphia's lineup on the mound. They're now averaging almost six runs per game at home this postseason. But Arizona did what we thought they would do in the series opener. They pieced together hits throughout the night, and they jumped on the back end of Zach Wheeler's start and the rest of the Phillies' bullpen to really keep it close. In reality, they should have scored more runs than they did, too. They had runners on the corners in the seventh, and they only scraped one by, and then they grounded into a double play to end the game. All in all, though, we know what is making Philly fans nervous tonight. It's Aaron Nola. He's nothing compared to playoff Zach Wheeler. I mean, at this point, Zach Wheeler has created a reputation for himself where I think we can consider him one of the best postseason pitchers of all time. Aaron Nola, not so much. Now, Nola did look strong in his first two postseason starts. But keep in mind, this guy is two and two with a 767 career ERA against the Diamondbacks. And this lineup specifically has had some success off of him with a 255 batting average. Now, Nola's concern this year has been the long ball, and Arizona's offense only has one career homer against him, but I think this lineup is hot enough to put one or two over the wall against him tonight. And like I said about last night, they beat you offensively by a million paper cuts. They're not a team like the Phillies that's going to beat you with one run or two run homers all night. They can put together a single double that's going to score a guy like Corbin Carroll who can round the bases as fast as anybody. And it's worth noting, too, that Nola struggled to get out of innings this past year with just a 66.4% left on base percentage. So when he would inherit runners or when he would take runners on and allow guys to get on base, he was struggling to get out of those innings. He could allow a crooked number here or there. Now, the Phillies on their end, they can't be stopped at the plate. We've seen it. We saw it against the Marlins in the opening series. We saw it against the Braves in the NLDS, and we saw it again last night. They jump on you, and they jump on you quick. They have 16 home runs this postseason, which leads the league by far. And six of those homers have come on the first pitch of the at bat. Nobody else in baseball has more than three. So they're more than double the Houston Astros who are in second and first pitch homers. The only problem that I can see this Phillies lineup having so far is with their power is that only three of those 16 home runs have come with runners on base They just they hit the ball like crazy but they haven't had they haven't hit the ball like crazy with guys on on the bags yet. Now, that will usually regress to the mean over time. Typically, you're going to start hitting those home runs with guys on base, especially considering that this lineup is hitting right handed pitchers as well as anyone in the league the last few months. Now, with Zach Gallen leaving early last night and Rob Thompson using the big guns out of the bullpen last night for the Phillies in Alvarado and Dominguez and Kimbrell for extended periods of time. I don't expect either bullpen to be locked down tonight either. I think this is going to be a 3-4 game in probably the 6th or 7th inning here, and then you're only looking for one more run. Maybe we have a 4-4 game going into extra innings. Either way, that bodes well for an over 7.5 runs, a level 1 lock.”
PHI 10, ARI 0 — Phillies shut out the Diamondbacks 10-0 in NLCS Game 2; combined 10 runs clears the 7.5 total (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Twins money line minus 138 versus the Astros. Break this one down for us, Jack. Yeah, well, Christian Javier, Houston starter tonight, has really, really struggled this season. This is obviously going to be his first postseason start this year. But he and the Houston Astros starting pitching staff have been really injured and really inconsistent all year. And really, that's one of the primary reasons why we liked the Twins to not only break their 18-game postseason curse, but also compete for the World Series this year. I just don't think Houston is the juggernaut people expected them to be. And Javier in particular just isn't the powerhouse of the juggernaut we thought he was coming into the season. He put up career worse in strikeout rate, which was actually 10% lower this year than last year. A career worst in ERA, expected slugging percentage against, expected batting average against, and fly ball rate all this year. Now, he is known as a great playoff pitcher. He was a reliever the first part of his career in the postseason. But now he's 2-0 as a starter in last year's postseason. Obviously had that magical no-hitter in the World Series as well. But he's just obviously not the same guy so far this season. And he's facing a Twins lineup that I think has kind of figured it out. They're still not in a high-powered, high-scoring offensive lineup. But you look up and down the lineup, Royce Lewis is a former first overall pick. He's starting to show his potential at the plate with some huge hits and home runs this postseason. Carlos Correa is now hitting .533 with a .1321 OPS just because it's a postseason. And, of course, it's Carlos Correa, so he's going to show up. Even Edouard Julian and Jorge Polanco, despite Polanco's defensive issues, are hitting the ball well. So the depth in this Twins lineup is starting to show up where we haven't seen it in the regular season. And the issue for Houston offensively is going to be facing Sonny Gray in Minneapolis. Gray doesn't get enough credit as one of the better, if not one of the best, postseason starters in this year's playoffs. In his career, he's now carrying a 239 ERA with 24 strikeouts over 26 innings in his postseason career. And his start in the wildcard series against Toronto was a masterpiece. He gave up a few too many hits for my liking with five hits over five innings pitched, but all of them were singles. And it really was a microcosm of this season at Target Field. A .267 ERA with a misleading 4-5 record. You never really want to rely on pitcher record too much when you're handicapping these games. But if you just look at qualified pitchers, Gray's .267 home ERA ranked 8th in all of baseball, while Javier's road earned run average of 517 ranked seventh worst among all qualified pitchers in baseball. I just I think these books are still giving the Astros a little bit too much credit with a line like this. I think they should be plus 140 plus 145 underdogs here. This one's a blowout. Give me the Minnesota Twins six Houston Astros two. And Minnesota takes a commanding to one leading game three tonight.”
1-9 — Astros beat Twins 9-1 in ALDS Game 3 at Minnesota; Twins moneyline loses (ESPN team schedule/results).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Red Wings under 86.5 total regular season points minus 102. Jack, break this one down for us. Well, it's obviously important to look through and put together your own power rankings before each season. Well, you know, I did that coming into this year. I have six out of the eight teams in the Atlantic Division. That's Toronto, Boston, Tampa, Florida, Buffalo, and Ottawa, power ranked all in the top half of the NHL this season. That means the Atlantic division is going to be very good and very deep this year It inevitable in my opinion that they going to have four teams in the postseason when everything is all said and done And I think the Detroit Red Wings are going to be victims of their own circumstances in this situation In fact if you look back at last year the Detroit Red Wings had a six improvement from their 2022 campaign through 2023, but they actually fell from fifth to seventh in the division because if you look around, Buffalo and Ottawa in particular have really improved, and I think they've outpaced Detroit over the last couple of years. Now, Detroit has been some sort of offseason darlings this year. They signed JT Comfer and Jeff Petrie, and they traded for Alex DeBrinckit. But otherwise, they didn't really do much. And with those transactions, I just don't see how this team is going to be even remotely competitive this season. Comfer is a middle six forward at best. Jeff Petrie played like a decent number five defenseman last year. And Alex DeBrinckit, in my opinion, really struggled in his first year without Patrick Kane up in Ottawa. Then you look at how they already had their roster built. Dylan Larkin is a really good player. He deserved his new contract last season and the captaincy in Detroit. Moritz Seider is a guy to keep an eye on. He's one of the best young defensemen in the entire league. But what about the rest of this lineup in Prep, who was a career backup in Seattle before putting up incredible numbers in one season, has really just been below average since taking the helm in Detroit. David Perron is your 35-year-old winger on the top line of this hockey team, and the rest of the roster is largely fringe players outside of that. Now, one other thing, too, you'll notice, not only did Detroit add quite a few guys in the offseason, they've added four of their – or they've replaced four of their six starting defensemen coming into this season. And not only that, all four of those additions are 30 years or older. That's Petrie. That's Shane Goss' pair. That's Justin Hull. I mean, these guys are, again, they're not only fringe roster guys, but they also made their team a lot older. And I just don't understand it. With those tough divisional matchups and a really difficult opening month for this Red Wings team, I think you're going to see this group selling off pieces early and aiming for another lottery pick. Give me the Detroit Red Wings under 86.5 regular season points. That's a level three lock.”
Detroit finished the 2023-24 NHL regular season 41-32-9 for 91 points, well over 86.5 (ESPN NHL standings). (Red Wings 41-32-9, 91 points)
“fandle.com line tampa bay nashville over six and a half total goals break this one down for us jack well both of these teams come into this season and tonight's game in particular in really unfamiliar territory if you followed hockey over the last 10 to 15 years you'll know nashville had one of the longest postseason birth streaks in all of sports for the last 15 or so years until they missed the postseason this past summer and suddenly they're in for a long overdue rebuild mode in a really competitive central division but they did go out and sign some older guys. So it's going to be interesting to follow this team this year and see what the front office does. But I think they're holding on to a few guys a bit too long, and they're holding out hope for sort of a wild card berth at best this season. The problem for Nashville is pretty clear. It's the defensive group. Under prior head coach John Hines, they were sixth worst in hockey in shots allowed per game at 33.3 shots allowed per 60 minutes. And this year, they've actually brought in a coach who is even more up and down and free-flowing in former Panthers coach and Devils assistant, Andrew Brunette, who I'm sure a lot of you guys are familiar with. Now, they have a new top four, top five defenseman in Luke Shin to add to the mix as a defender. But otherwise, they haven't really done anything to improve on the back end. And, you know, keeping in touch with Brunette, this is a guy who knows how to score goals and play against this Tampa Bay Lightning team. When he played when he coached with Florida, they had tons of offensive success in high scoring games between the Panthers and the Lightning, especially on the power play. And given that history, I think he's going to know how to approach this matchup from an offensive standpoint. Again like I said he likes to play up and down hockey He gives up chances on one end but he loves counterattack And I think that going to yield itself to two or three goals for Nashville tonight at the very least especially because it looking like a similarly disappointing season this year just like last year for Tampa They were bounced from the playoffs early last year by a surprising Maple Leafs team. And it's looked like the shine has worn off for them and their playoff success over the last six or seven years coming into this year. But even then, coming into the regular season, this was still a veteran-led, experienced, high-scoring team. So a lot of people, myself included, thought they were sort of primed for a bounce-back season and can maybe contend for the Atlantic Division this year. And then late September rolled around, and it's announced that Andre Vasilevsky is going to be out for the first two months of the season after he had surgery late in September. There is no bigger drop-off in hockey between a starting goaltender and a backup goaltender like there is between Andre Vasilevsky and Jonas Johansson, who Tampa brought in this offseason. He's bounced around the league. I've seen this guy play not only in person but in plenty of games on TV. He's a below-average starter at best in the NHL. In fact, I think he's a pretty good minor leaguer if you want to keep him there. He's got an .886 career save percentage and a .335 career goals against average. which again, in an up and down high pace game like tonight will be, that's just not going to yield itself to a successful night for him. One more thing to note too, the Predators have lost their last four straight true road season openers in the last four seasons. But here were the final scores of those games. They lost seven to four, seven to zero, six to four, and five to one. Those might remind you of some 1960s, 1970s hockey games with all the goals being scored there. I think you're going to have plenty of goals to go around tonight as well. Likely a 5-2, 5-3 final score. Give me the over 6.5, a level one lock.”
5-3 — Lightning beat Predators 5-3, a combined 8 goals; over 6.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“the padres money line minus 118 versus the giants break this one down for us yeah well blake snell is the favorite for the national league cy young award this year at this point and it's pretty clear why. He's been incredible We get into the stats but this is one of his last chances this season to really polish off that resume and make sure that these voters don have any other doubt in their mind And frankly he could not have had or could not have landed a better opponent to really put a stamp on his resume right now. The San Francisco Giants, they rank 24th or worse in weighted runs created, OPS and weighted on base average against left handers this season. They're also dead last in ISO in that split as well. Even worse too, you know, you see a lot of teams struggle, but they're putting the ball in play and they're just not getting good bat-to-ball luck, especially late in the season when things have turned around quite a bit. But the Giants also have the third highest strikeout rate among NL teams in home games against left-handed pitching this year. So there's really no reason for Snell to struggle in this one. He's got a 143 ERA and an 093 whip over his last seven outings and he's just been unstoppable against the giants as well he's got a 213 road era that's almost a full half run better than the next best pitcher in all of baseball now he's pitching at oracle park tonight as well home runs at oracle park if people don't know there's obviously hitter friendly and pitcher friendly parks across major league baseball well Oracle Park is probably the most, if not one of the most, pitcher-friendly parks in all of Major League Baseball. That park suppresses home runs by about 25%. Runs are suppressed by about 4% as well. And if you look at the other side of the mound, the Giants have Logan Webb on the mound tonight. And this guy is a bona fide ace at this point in his career. He's got a .237 home ERA so far this season and 14 quality starts. that leads the majors for pitchers at home. And he's gotten, the problem for him, though, is he's gotten the worst run support of all qualified starting pitchers this season. So if you already thought that the Giants lineup was going to struggle against Blake Snell by themselves, Logan Webb is used to this. He never gets this kind of run support. He only gets 2.9 runs in support per game so far this season. And that's why, despite having 14 quality starts at home in 15 total starts. He's only seven and eight. And because the Giants have been struggling even more recently on offense, he's lost six of his last seven games overall coming into this one. And that's why the Giants are two and eight in their last 10 games. It's why they're suddenly five games back of the wildcard spot along with San Diego. I think Blake Snell is going to take care of business again tonight and really polish off that Cy Young resume. Give me the San Diego Padres money line. blowout special.”
SF 2, SD 1 — Giants beat Padres 2-1 on Sept 25, 2023; San Diego Padres moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Mariners money line minus 126 versus the Astros. Break this down for us, Jack. Yeah, well, the Mariners are only a half game back of the Astros right now for that final wild card spot in the American League, and that's largely due to the fact that the Astros have really struggled recently. They've lost seven of their last ten, and a good portion, a good reason for that is, while not many people are talking about it, Justin Verlander has not been his old self since they acquired him in fact he's been worse for the Astros than he was for the Mets so far this year with the Mets he had 16 starts a 315 ERA over 94 innings and it was it looked like he was starting to come into his own now for the Astros yeah he five and three for Houston but in nine starts he has a ERA over 55 innings and he already given up as many home runs with Houston as he did with New York this season. In fact, if you look at just his last four starts, it's not as if he had just one or two blow-up starts that really skewed his numbers. Over his last four starts, he's 1-3 with a 5-19 ERA and seven home runs allowed over 26 innings. So the struggle has been right there for Verlander, just like it has been for a lot of this Houston pitching staff. Now, if you look to the other side of things, Luis Castillo, he is their ace. And the good thing for Seattle, especially if they just can sneak into the playoffs this year, is it feels like this team has three, maybe even four aces across their rotation. Over the last four weeks, Castillo is 3-0. He's got a 338 ERA, and he's running up to strikeouts all of a sudden. He's got 26 strikeouts over 24 innings in that span as well. I think they know, obviously, the magnitude of this game. But when you're at home and you have your ace on the mound against what a team like Seattle might consider their big brother, this is your chance to sneak out a win here. I know this is a big game for both teams, and you don't expect a letdown from anybody. But when you've got your ace on the mound like Seattle does in Luis Castillo in a home matchup here where the crowd's going to be wild, you've got to take them. It's the Seattle Mariners' money line. Minus 126. Blowout special number two.”
SEA 1, HOU 5 — Astros beat Mariners 5-1 on Sept 25, 2023; Seattle Mariners moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Eagles minus 5, minus 110 versus Tampa Bay. Jack, break this one down for us. Yeah, you mentioned it. You know, both teams are 2-0. But one team, let's be honest, is a Super Bowl contender and the other is a pretender. Baker Mayfield has led the Bucs to a great start. But look at who he's played. The two teams he's beat are the Vikings and the Bears. That's a combined 0-6 on the season. So to an extent, there's an asterisk next to those two wins for him. He's thrown three touchdowns so far this season and most importantly, zero interceptions. We know that with Baker, a lot of his issues come in the form of turnovers. And he's been throwing from a clean pocket. You notice the Bears and the Vikings also don't have much of a pass rush this year. And their secondaries are below average as well. The Eagles have, obviously, rookie Jalen Carter, Brandon Graham, Fletcher Cox, Josh Sweat. I mean, every single one of these guys is a potential pro bowler this year. So trust me, this is not the game where he's going to have a clean pocket and, you know, throw one or two touchdowns and no interceptions. He will have at least one or two interceptions, and that 104 QB rating is going to slip into the double digits, I think, tonight. Possibly the two best Bucs defenders as well. Quarterback Carlton Davis and linebacker Devin White are questionable in this one. And I think the Bucs are going to need all hands on deck and at 100%, which they aren't going to, to stop this Eagles offense that might be, after the Dolphins, the best level of skill players in the NFL. With Jalen Hurts DeAndre Swift Devontae Smith and A Brown In fact A Brown was a bit upset on the sideline last week because he didn think he was getting enough targets I think A Brown going to go out and have a big night tonight especially if Carlton Davis is hurt. I think this one's going to be a blowout. The contender Philadelphia Eagles, 31. The pretender Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 17. Let's take Philly, minus 5. Level 2 lock.”
TB 11, PHI 25 — Eagles beat Buccaneers 25-11 on Sept 25, 2023 to stay unbeaten; a 14-point margin covers the -5 spread (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. azuna of the braves to record over one and a half bases plus 115 versus the colorado rockies jack break this one down for us well you know if you're looking to get into sports betting or even betting claire props in baseball specifically it's really easy and it's really resourceful to just check the league leaders in various stats every couple of days for example every other morning or so i just check the league leaders over the last two or three weeks in batting average and slugging percentage and batting average on balls in play and then i'll check pitcher era strikeouts and expected era for pitchers when you do that it becomes very easy to track some of the hottest players in the league when especially when you can watch every single game right now that marcelo zuna of the atlanta braves and being a braves fan here in nashville I watch Ozuna quite a bit And when he on he might be a top five power hitter in baseball still Just look at his last 30 days. He's hitting .359. That's eighth in baseball. He's got a .680 slugging percentage. That's sixth in baseball. He's got eight home runs and nine doubles. It's not surprising either that he finds more success against lefties than righties. What is surprising about that is that he has a 168 percentage point jump in his slugging percentage against Southpaw's versus right-handed pitchers. Now, he's facing lefty Kyle Freeland tonight on the road and at Coors Field, both of which are helpful in this scenario. Freeland hasn't really found success at home or against the Braves lineup this year or in his career. In fact, Atlanta just touched him up for seven runs on nine hits in just four innings pitched when they saw him in Atlanta back in June. Now, Ozuna's going to get him in that high altitude on one of the hottest hitting streaks of his career. I'll take that prop at this price all day, every day. It's plus 115. Take Marcel Ozuna of the Atlanta Braves to record over one and a half total bases, plus 115. Hidden gem.”
Marcell Ozuna went 1-for-4 with a home run (443 feet) for 4 total bases against the Rockies, clearing the 1.5 total bases line (ESPN box score). (1-4, HR, 4 TB)
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Ducks to have the worst record in the NHL, plus 410. Break this one down for us, Jack. Well, we're just 41 days away from the start of the NHL season, believe it or not. FanDuel and some other books, they've already even posted some of the game one lines for October 10th even. And I've started my deep dive on our futures for clients for this season. Now, when you look at these team futures, especially these teams projected towards the bottom of the standings, and keep in mind, Anaheim did finish last in the league in the 2022-2023 season. It's important to look at roster age as well as just the roster generally and the front office turnover. The Anaheim, I call them the not-so-mighty ducks anymore. Their roster already has a ton of turnover and a ton of youth inside of it. We haven't even started camp yet either. So Dallas Eakins was their head coach last year. He was fired as soon as the season ended. And a guy named Greg Cronin takes over as the new head coach. It's his first head coaching position in the NHL. He's coached around in the American Hockey League, which is the minor leagues for the NHL for several years. So he's just not in an ideal situation. here. Then you look at the roster around him, and this roster is built to tank in 2023. There's no other way to look at it. They drafted Leo Carlson with the second overall pick this year. That's a good pick, but he's a 19-year-old Swedish teenager who's going to take some time to develop and probably won't even play on North American ice for the foreseeable future. Then in free agency, they signed Alex Killorn and Radko Gudis. Okay. Killorn is a 34-year-old coming off of six straight postseasons with Tampa Bay. And that's really it. But the dark cloud over this organization right now is goaltender John Gibson. He has requested a trade and he has reportedly told some media groups that he will never play another game for this organization in his career That the only all caliber player this team has And he has all but publicly stated that he never going to play another game for the Anaheim Ducks Now you look around at this Pacific Division, too, and you see there's a ton of talented teams. Obviously, the Vegas Golden Knights won the Cup this past summer. You have Edmonton, Seattle, and Los Angeles who are firmly in the postseason hunt right now. Plus, you have a revamped Vancouver Canucks team that's going to push for a wild card spot anaheim all of a sudden has the seventh toughest schedule in hockey this year too they finished with just 58 points in the regular season last year i just don't see them improving anywhere near enough to reach 65 or even 67 points this season to avoid that last place spot and potentially the first overall pick give me the anaheim ducks to finish with the worst record in all of hockey again at plus 410 bet a little win a whole lot”
The San Jose Sharks finished the 2023-24 NHL season with the league's worst record (19-54-9, 47 points); the Anaheim Ducks finished 27-50-5 for 59 points, not the worst (ESPN 2023-24 NHL standings). (San Jose Sharks 47 pts (worst); Anaheim Ducks 59 pts)
“.com line on this one. The Rays, money line, minus 118 versus Miami. Break this one down for us. All right, well, somehow, someway, the Tampa Bay Rays are red hot right now, despite the circumstances that have been surrounding this team over the last one or two months. I mean, with the Wander Franco news and the injuries to the starting pitchers, by the way, if you just go look at their depth chart right now, they only have three starting pitchers on the depth chart in the big league organization. They're 16-8 in the month of August, and they've won seven of their last eight to stay in the hunt for the AL East crown. They even have a plus 44 run differential this month already, too. What makes it even more impressive, really, is the fact that they've done it with the starting pitching. I mean, Tyler Glass now, he's been lights out, but Zac Eflin has to have been the most valuable free agent signing of the offseason by far. With the other injuries to McClanahan and Boz and all these other guys, Zac Eflin has been arguably a number one for most other teams in baseball. He's 13 and eight with a 355 ERA and a career best 293 expected ERA and a career best 3.5 percent walk rate so far this season. He should have no problem tonight getting them six to seven innings of work, in large part because this Miami team stinks bad right now. It hasn't been talked about much, but the Marlins have fallen off a cliff. They're just 18-31 since the start of July, including a 9-16 record in August. They're only averaging 3.6 runs per game since the start of this month. And when you look into the details of it, what it comes down to is Luis Arias. He's only hitting .228 in the month of August, and it seems like if he's not blooping every baseball for a single, this offense is completely dead. The other problem is obviously the pitching staff in the bullpen. Sandy Alcantara has had his problems, but Jesus Luzardo, tonight's starter, was hyped as the most underrated pitcher in all of baseball during the first half of the season. In his last four starts, though, just a 1-3 record with a .785 ERA. that comes with eight home runs and seven walks over just 18 innings and that's just not going to cut it that's been the concern with him for years but everybody thought after the first half of the season he had found a way to control his his stuff and find some command and it just it gone by the wayside here in July and August when you look behind him too I mean David Robertson already lost his job as the closer for this reliever group and the rest of the bullpen ranks just 20th in baseball in reliever ERA over the last two months it's not pretty for Miami right now it's beautiful for Tampa even with that hurricane coming through I think these two teams are headed in opposite directions give me the tampa bay rays money line minus 118 a level two lock”
TB 3, MIA 0 — Rays beat Marlins 3-0 in 10 innings on Josh Lowe's tiebreaking single; Rays moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Mookie Betts over one and a half total bases, minus 150 in the Dodgers versus Diamondbacks this evening. Break this one down for us, Jack. Well, Mookie did us dirty a couple weeks ago in Baltimore, but this is one of the easiest guys to back in baseball, even after a loss on one of his player props. You know, over one and a half total bases at minus 150. It's a pretty juiced line when you typically when you look for over one and a half bases on these player props, you expect them to be between plus 110 and maybe minus 120. But there's just no denying that this is one of the biggest mismatches between a hitter and a pitcher in today's slate of games. after that grand slam in yesterday's game against the Padres. Betts is hitting .313 with a .566 slugging percentage since the All-Star break, both of which are top 30 in baseball. He's now gone over the one-and-a-half total bases in six of his last seven games, too, and the one time he didn't was due to a hit-by-pitch when he got a free base. He's going to be heading leadoff tonight, and he's on the road, both of which should maximize his potential plate appearances, but he's going up against the dreadful Arizona Diamondbacks pitching staff. and Brandon fought the ultimate downfall of this diamondbacks team this season. And the reason they fallen out of a wild card spot and frankly won make this year postseason is because of the pitching staff Thought is the number five guy in their rotation right now He just 24 years old but he already has nine starts at the big league level And frankly only one of those nine starts has gone well for him. He pitched seven innings of two hit ball against the struggling Giants in his last start. But now he's pitching a chase field where he has an ERA of 886 over 21 and a third innings pitched. What's even crazier for Fon is that leadoff hitters are absolutely crushing him. Like I said, Betts is betting leadoff tonight. He's giving up a 364 batting average and a 500 slagging percentage with a 962 OPS to leadoff hitters this season. Righties, too, are hitting for power just as well as lefties are against him with a 598 slagging percentage and seven home runs over 90 plate appearances. Now, as always, if you're betting this type of player prop, you have to make sure to study the opponent's bullpen as well. Well, over the last 30 days, nobody in baseball has an ERA anywhere near as bad as the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen at 713. In fact, the second worst bullpen ERA over the last 30 days is Kansas City's at just a 595 ERA. This bet could hit in the first inning for bets. And if it doesn't, I have no reason to believe why it won't hit by the 6 through the 7. take Mookie Betts over one and a half total bases minus 150 hidden Jim”
LAD 5, ARI 4 — Mookie Betts went 2-for-4 with a double (3 total bases) as the Dodgers beat Arizona 5-4, clearing the 1.5 total-bases line (ESPN box score). (Betts: 2-for-4, 1 2B, 3 TB)
“Fando.com line on this one. The Blue Jays minus 116 versus the Gardos. Break this one down for us, Jack. Well, the career turnaround of Yusei Kikuchi, Toronto's starter in tonight's game, really should be a case study for years to come. This guy was one of the better ground ball rate pitchers in all of baseball for several years when he first came over from Japan. His slider curveball mix just rolled baseballs over with the best of them. but he really lost that in 2022. And unsurprisingly, he had the worst year of his career with a 518 ERA. This year, things have obviously turned around for him with his 9-3 record and a 367 ERA with a 444 expected ERA. But it hasn't happened the way you'd expect, where his ground ball rate jumped back into the mid or high 40% range. He's had his career low in ground ball rate at 39.4%. Now, his pop-up rate rather than fly ball rate has increased and almost doubled. But what has improved really for Kikuchi is his confidence on the mound and his stuff plus. I'll get into stuff plus in a minute, but this guy is all about his confidence. And his manager has come out and said it before as well. You can see it from the moment he begins a game, whether or not he's going to succeed that night. And you can see it way more often this year. He's throwing 12 to 6 curveballs when he's behind in the count. He's hitting 97 miles an hour in his fastball at times. And he's just not tensing up when he's ahead in the count. He used to be one of the worst pitchers in baseball, even when he was ahead in the count on batters. So things have really turned around for him mentally, but also with his pitch mix. What I find really interesting about baseball, especially in the last year or so, is this new statistic called Stuff Plus. You can find it on a couple of statistical resources when you handicapping these games and certain pitchers And it essentially compiles the combination of a pitcher movement velocity spin rate and release points to determine which pitchers have the best stuff in the game You know you're going to find guys like Spencer Strider, Jacob deGrom, and Garrett Cole near the tops of these leaderboards all the time. But all of a sudden, if you look at the leaderboard right now, Kikuchi ranks 13th among all qualifying pitchers in baseball in stuff plus. This guy is just nasty on the mound. He just needed the confidence to get there, and I think he's got it right now. For Kikuchi, there's no team that he could face right now that has less confidence hitting the ball either. The Guardians, they rank 26th in runs per game, 29th in runs per game at home, and 25th in OPS this season. Even their bullpen, which was their strength entering the season, has fallen off now. Take the surging Blue Jays. They've won four in a row. I think they make it five tonight at Progressive Field. I'm expecting a 7-2, 8-2 final score. blowout special”
CLE 1, TOR 0 — Cleveland shut out Toronto 1-0, so the Blue Jays moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Total runs over nine and a half runs, minus 110. Pirates versus Braves. Break this one down for us, Jack. Well, the Atlanta Braves are obviously a very good baseball team, But their pitching staff and their starters in particular have been awful since the All-Star break. They didn't make any major changes to the roster. They didn't have any big deadline pickups. And, you know, I don't blame them. Once you get to the postseason, you really only need three, maybe four starters to get you through one of those big series. But the team ERA raced 26th in all of baseball at 489 since the Midsummer Classic. And the bullpen doesn't fare much better either with a 427 ERA in that span. That's just league average for a team that's known for having some elite pitching. Now, Max Fried has come back from injury and he's looked fantastic. But otherwise, the starting pitching depth is a concern for this team. And it's so bad that Yanni Chirinos, yes, the 29-year-old who barely played professional baseball the last three seasons, is starting right now. They picked him up from Tampa and his first two starts as a Brave have been awful. He has a 727 ERA and a 1615 whip over eight and two-thirds innings pitched so far. He only went 2-0 in those starts because the Braves offense scored 22 runs in two starts to support it. They scored 12 runs in one and 10 runs in the other. The other problem for Chirinos and the Braves is that the starting pitching most have obviously drained the bullpen. Bill and Tonkin, Pierce Johnson, AJ Minter, and Rysell Iglesias are not expected to be available for this one after they had to pitch almost seven innings after a three-hour rain delay last night just to get the Braves to nine innings because of all players, Spencer Strider couldn't even make it through the third inning. So I don expect their pitching depth to be there today and I don expect them to have reliable guys as relievers either For Pittsburgh things have obviously caved in since the hot start Mitch Keller was a big reason for that hot start in the beginning but he been a prime fade candidate in recent months He's really one of their only pitchers who you might see the Pirates favored with on the mound. But he was 9-4 with a .331 ERA in the first half. He's 0-4 with a .997 ERA in the second half of the season so far. Since his first start in July, the Pirates are 0-6 in his last six starts, and he's given up a 3-0-5 batting average against and a 7-49 ERA with eight home runs in his last 33 and two-thirds innings. Giving up long, hard-hit fly balls against the Atlanta Braves of all teams is just a recipe for disaster. If you look up and down the Braves lineup, they have five, four guys in the top 20 in baseball and slugging percentage. And this team is on pace to potentially break the single season record for home runs by a team. So for Keller, you know, if he were giving up a ton of ground ball base hits or a ton of singles, that'd be one thing. But most of the hits he's given up are doubles off the wall or their home runs. I mean, eight home runs over the last 33 and two thirds innings. That's some of the most in baseball. The Pirates, they don't have the best bats in today's league. But this team can jump on this Braves pitching staff early, and you just know Atlanta's going to have the firepower to compete with anyone. I can't trust either of these starting pitchers, and obviously can't trust either of the bullpens right now either. But these offenses, at the very least, the Braves are reliable to put up six or seven runs on their own. Take the over nine and a half total runs between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Atlanta Braves. Level two lock.”
PIT 6, ATL 8 — Atlanta beat Pittsburgh 8-6 (Arcia's 9th-inning double decided it), a combined 14 runs that clears the 9.5 total (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. the Phillies money line minus 104 versus the Padres break this one down for us well you Darvish shockingly has a 487 ERA on the season in 15 starts already believe it or not he has an ERA above 540 in every month since the start of May that has brought his road ERA up into the sixes as well which is honestly shocking to me myself and probably shocking to a lot of people who have followed the Padres most of the year and thought they're starting pitching was the only thing that's really been solid. He does have an expected ERA of 368, but he's not getting much help. The Padres lineup has really stumbled against lefties since July 1st. They only have 108 plate appearances since that date against lefties, but they have a 30.6% strikeout rate, a 67 weighted runs created stat line and just a 590 OPS That bottom half bottom 10 in the baseball world right now in that time frame If you took that to a greater sample size and extrapolated it out they have just five qualifying hitters that have an expected weighted on base average over 300 against lefties since July 1st. Now the Phillies, on the other hand, they're getting their ideal matchup while San Diego is getting a pretty rough one. They've been great against righties this month. They have 115 weighted runs created against right-handed pitching in July in just a 19.5 strikeout percent rate. That's over 11% lower than San Diego's against left-handed pitchers. They're OPS also over 800 in that span. And they've got seven hitters with an expected weighted on-base average over 320 in the past month. Believe it or not, too, Philadelphia has actually started off the first half with a much better bullpen than San Diego. I just can't trust the Padres right now to carry over their momentum them to the second half when they haven't done so all year in week to week to week situations i've got the wrong team favored philadelphia philly phillies money line minus 104 against the san diego padres”
PHI 3, SD 8 — Padres beat Phillies 8-3 behind home runs from Machado, Tatis, Soto and Sanchez; Phillies moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Orioles versus Marlins over eight and a half runs, minus 115. Break this one down for us, Jack. Well, we all know how I feel about Sandy Alcantara this year. He's not reliable right now. And even his last start against the Phillies, where he only gave up one earned run, was misleading. He still gave up eight hits and a homer on just 95 pitches through six and a third innings. We're so used to seeing Sandy go for eight, eight and a third, even nine innings for complete game shutouts over the last couple of years. When he's got 95 pitches through six and six and a third innings, you know, he's struggling with hitters. He's not getting to oh and two and one and two counts. In fact, he's walking guys a lot and he's getting behind in counts. And that's why his home run numbers are so hot. So I just can't trust him right now, especially against an Orioles lineup. That's been one of the most underrated in baseball all year. They've been crushing righties. They've been crushing the ball at home. they've had no problem putting up runs even against aces let alone against a guy like sandy who's really at number three in his rotation right now then on the other side you look back at the start of the season and you look at every team starting rotation dean kramer today's starter for the baltimore orioles is probably the worst quote-unquote ace in baseball coming into the year he's gone from the orioles number one to a fringe fourth or fifth starter in that rotation and he's likely going to lose his spot when guys like John Means and a couple of others come back into the rotation. So not only does he have an ERA up up near five right now at 478, he's also getting absolutely crushed by left-handed hitters. Miami's got a couple of them and a couple of power bats that are left-handers as well, but he's given up a 307 batting average, a 540 slug percentage, and a 901 OPS against left-handed pitch hitters right now. I think Baltimore is going to want to keep him in this game especially with a guy like Felix Bautista who pitched in the all-star game and might need another day or two of rest before he gets back in so I don't really trust the Orioles bullpen to be fully rested for this one especially when they rely so much on their number one guy and relief and then you look at Kramer's home and road splits as well shockingly enough we've talked about it for a while now once Baltimore made the dimension changes to Camden Yards for the Orioles their runs at their home games really dipped quite a bit there are a lot less runs scored at their games there were far less home runs scored and extra base hits scored because they moved the walls back for whatever reason that has not really applied to Dean Kramer He got a 404 ERA on the road and a 551 ERA at home In 49 innings, he's already given up 11 home runs and 13 walks at Camden Yards. So it just hasn't worked out for him. And in that case, if you can't trust either starting pitcher, you're going to have to take the over here. Give me the Baltimore Orioles and the Miami Marlins over eight and a half runs, minus 115 blowout special”
BAL 5, MIA 2 — Orioles beat Marlins 5-2 (Adam Frazier hit two home runs); combined 7 runs, under the 8.5 total (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Red Sox money line, minus 120 versus Chicago. Break this one down for us, Jack. Well, I'll go ahead and say this before I get into everything else. I don't trust either of these bullpens very much. I slightly trust Boston's a little bit more than Chicago's, but it's not by a lot. What I do trust is this starting pitching matchup. Brian Bellow is one of, if not my favorite, young starting pitchers in the league today. He throws a little bit above league average with his fastball at 95 miles an hour. But what really, really matters for him is this nasty cutting sinker that he has and throws about 35 percent of the time. He's not going to have the greatest peripheral numbers. It's not like he's a big strikeout guy. He's not he doesn't get a ton of spin on every pitch and he's not avoiding a ton of bats. But what he is doing is he's creating soft contact. He only gives up 30th percentile level hard hit rate and 41st percentile average exit velocity on batted balls. That's pretty elite for a guy who's only 24 years old. His fastball is getting faster throughout the year, which you love to see for a young guy like this who's not getting fatigued quite yet. And he's facing up against the guy who's just about the opposite in Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks has an average fastball velocity of around 87 miles an hour. His whiff rate is pretty awful. He's in the sixth percentile in whiff rate, and he doesn't strike anybody out. He's got a 5% K rate right now in the season, only 32 strikeouts in 53 innings pitched. And that's worked for him in the past. I'm not going to deny that. But he's facing up against a Boston team that absolutely loves these slow pitches. If you look at team splits against power versus finesse pitchers, and Hendricks would obviously be one of those finesse pitchers, Boston matches up fantastically against a guy like Hendricks. In 840 at-bats against power pitchers, Boston has a 256 batting average and a 769 OPS. In over 1,100 at-bats against finesse pitchers, who are slower pitchers that are in the bottom third of the league in strikeouts, they've got a 278 batting average and a 789 OPS. They love hitting fastballs, but they also love hitting change-ups and off-speed pitches. I think that matches up well against a guy like Kyle Hendricks. And for a guy like Brian Bellow who doesn really have to subject himself to the wind conditions at Wrigley Field is going to have no problem creating soft ground balls here against a Cubs lineup that struggled going into the break and had a couple of guys out as well I'm going to take the Boston Red Sox here. I'm going to bet on Brian Bellow. I'm going to bet on him a lot this second half of the season, I think. He's a name to keep an eye out on, and I would keep paying attention to him as the season goes along. Give me the Boston Red Sox money line, minus 120, level two lock.”
BOS 8, CHC 3 — Red Sox beat Cubs 8-3 behind home runs from Devers and Turner; Red Sox moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one, the Giants to make the postseason, minus 138. Break this down for us, Jack. This line jumped out to me almost immediately because I think it's a mistake. First off, you look at the Giants' postseason race situation compared to the Philadelphia Phillies, their closest competitor. The Giants have played one more game than Philly, and they have one more win, and they're currently a half game up in the wild card on the Phillies. Then you look at the division standings, and there's just no way the Philadelphia Phillies are coming back on Atlanta or maybe even Miami for the NL East, while the Giants still have a chance in the NL West. And yet the Giants' odds, excuse me, the Phillies' odds have them closer to minus 180 to make the postseason right now, while the Giants are sitting at minus 135 to minus 140. The Giants have sneakily been probably the most underrated 49-win team in baseball so far, and I think that's part of the reason for this soft line. The Phillies have been hot, especially on the road for the last couple of weeks, and they've been in the limelight, while the Giants have just been steadily staying in the hunt there in the NL West, especially with the Diamondbacks falling off. Now, the Giants are in a strong division, but the Diamondbacks are struggling recently. The Rockies are only getting worse, and the Padres just haven't been able to string together two consecutive weeks of good baseball, yet this year. I think the X factor here, though, it's director of baseball operations Farhan Zayedi. You'll remember Zayedi took some big swings on Chris Bryant and Carlos Rodon, and he even tried to get guys like Aaron Judge and even Juan Soto to the Bay Area in the last couple of years. He's just, he's not afraid of big moves, and he knows that he has the sixth oldest team in baseball that needs to make another postseason run. They've got the 10th best team ERA in baseball and the 10th easiest strength of schedule here in the second half of the season. I think this line should be closer to minus 160 or minus 165 to get that done and make it into the postseason. So give me the San Francisco Giants to sneak into the playoffs for the 28th time in franchise history. Minus 138. Hit him, Jim.”
San Francisco 79-83, missed postseason — The San Francisco Giants finished the 2023 season 79-83 and missed the playoffs for the second straight year (Wikipedia, 2023 San Francisco Giants season).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Angels under 79 and a half wins in minus 115. Jack break this one down Well only two teams have a harder strength of schedule in the second half than the Los Angeles Angels and no team is going into the second half more banged up We talked about Mike Trout and his handmaid injury but this lineup is riddled with injuries aside from Trout. Jared Walsh, Brandon Drury, Zach Netto, Gio Urshela, only on the offensive side. And then you look at Jose Suarez, Matt Moore, and a couple of other guys on the pitching side. They just they don't have the prospect pool or the young guys to fill in these absences. I understand there's look, there's rumors that they could be buyers at the deadline, regardless of their record, just to lure Shohei Otani into a new contract there in L.A. But as much as they may want to do that, this team is five games out of a wildcard spot and seven out of the division lead. If they were two games out of a wildcard and maybe four games out of the division lead, I would I might switch my thinking on this. But this team isn't close right now. They're trending in the wrong direction. They're 4-13 in the last 17 games headed into the All-Star break. Now, not only do you have to look at that, you also have to look around the division. The Rangers are falling off a little bit, but they're still in the lead. And you've got the Houston Astros and the Seattle Mariners, who are two of the more disappointing teams in the first half of the season, who are bound to turn it around in the second half here. When you look at the Angels' team history in the second half and the strength of this division around them, I think you have to expect both the Astros and Mariners to pull away from them, not just overtake them, but to pull away from them here in the second half. Give me the Los Angeles Angels under 79 and a half wins, minus 115 blowout special.”
Los Angeles Angels 73-89 — The Los Angeles Angels finished the 2023 season 73-89, under the 79.5 win total (Wikipedia, 2023 Los Angeles Angels season).
“Vandal.com line on this one. All-star game to go under seven runs. It's plus 100. Give it to me. Break it down for us. Well, when I first saw this line, I leaned towards the American League tonight, given their nine-game winning streak in the Mid-Year Classic. But when you're facing an all-star team in the National League and you don't have Jordan Alvarez, Mike Trout, or even Aaron Judge, you have to hold off and look elsewhere. And that's what I did here. So instead, I want to hone in on these pitching staffs. Zach Gallin goes for the National League. Garrett Cole starts for the American League. Now, these guys are both great. They're the respective Cy Young leaders in terms of betting odds in each league. But you have to only expect two to three innings max per guy. So regardless of their inning numbers, the under has cashed in 13 of the last 16 all-star games with an average of just 6.7 runs per game. Now when you look at the bullpens and the other starting pitchers behind them especially once you get to the 6th 7th 8th and 9th innings these bullpen guys these relievers are the ones the guys out there in Major League Baseball who are starting to hit 100 200 three miles an hour with some solid movement These aren't guys who are just going out there and lobbing curveballs and 80 mile an hour changeups anymore. What makes the under even more enticing here is this ballpark. Of all Major League Baseball stadiums, T-Mobile Park in Seattle has the most pitcher-friendly park factor in terms of run scored and on-base percentage. So that's not just that there's low scoring games in Seattle. It's also that the dimensions of the park, the wind and the foul territory and all that really lean towards and under in all Mariners games, including the all star game here. Now, on top of that, you know, look at the weather temperatures are going to be in the low 60s with minimal wind. That's perfect for a pitcher in this game, especially when you're up against the bay in Seattle. And that wind can can gust in more than it does out quite often. with two of the last four All-Star Game MVPs in Trout and Judge out for this one. I'm taking the pitchers in this matchup. Give me the under seven runs in this year's All-Star Game. Level one lock.”
NL 3, AL 2 — The National League beat the American League 3-2 in the 2023 MLB All-Star Game on July 11, 2023, decided by Elias Diaz's 8th-inning two-run homer; the combined 5 runs went under the 7-run total (Wikipedia, 2023 MLB All-Star Game).
“fanduel.com line on this one mookie bets to win the home run derby plus 1800 jack break this one down for us well i have to give a shout out to mookie bets he's one of the most talented athletes in professional sports we all know he's a fantastic athlete in other sports he's a big soccer player he's a big bowler my claim to fame personally is that i struck him out in fourth or fifth grade when i was growing up here in nashville and of course he he went on to hit two more homers against me later in the same game but i did get my one strike out against him now now that he's in major league baseball there's a couple things to keep in mind with this home run derby the first is that it's a bracketed system just like march madness or any other tournament you see in professional sports and that's important to know because mookie betts does have to face off against vlad guerrero in the first round who's had a strong appearance in his one lone home run derby in 2019 that's a tough opponent but who betts is avoiding is almost as important as who he's facing here. You've got Luis Robert, Randy Rosarena, Adoles Garcia on the other side of the bracket. And those are some of the strongest competitors in this whole bracket. And he's avoiding those. And they can all win their own side of the bracket. They can all compete there But Betts once he gets past Guerrero if he can get past Guerrero is a solid bet on his side of the bracket for Betts it not about size and swing strength it about his efficiency he only 5'9 and 180 pounds but he ranks in the 92nd percentile in average exit velocity 97th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 87th percentile in hard hit rate those are all in the top three or four among all competitors in this derby he has 26 home runs too that's third in all of baseball it's not as if this guy just snuck in on his name recognition despite a small or a slow power season he's been hitting balls out of the park all year he's getting his hitting coach as well and first base coach to pitch to him in this matchup as well and he obviously has the continuity of seeing those tosses every day in batting practice before games one other thing that's important to know is that the wind is blowing out to left center field in seattle for this derby that's a huge advantage for right-handed hitters over the one or two lefties in the derby if you're giving me the guy with the third most home runs in baseball at plus 1800 tonight second longest odds of any competitor and we know how much of a competitor he is i'm taking it give me mookie bets to win the home run derby at plus 1800 bet a little win a whole lot”
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. beat Mookie Betts 26-11 in the quarterfinal (first) round of the 2023 Home Run Derby on July 10, 2023 at T-Mobile Park; Guerrero went on to win the whole event, so Betts did not win the derby (Wikipedia, 2023 Home Run Derby). (Round 1: Guerrero Jr. 26, Betts 11; Champion: Guerrero Jr.)
“Fanduil.com line on this one. Garcia over A Rose Arena in the first round, minus 144. Jack, go on and break this one down for us. So barrel rate probably matters more than any other statistic when handicapping the home run derby, even though the others are helpful. That's not lost to me. But Adoles Garcia ranks seventh among all MLBers in that stat. Nobody would know it. Adoles Garcia He has not been a big household name for the majority of his career. In fact, he's a sneaky 30 years old. But this guy has been on the scene for quite some time now, and he's got the seventh highest barrel rate among all MLBers in that stat. He actually ranks first in all of the Derby competitors as well in that stat. He has 23 home runs so far this year. That's first among American League outfielders. And he's been consistent all year with it. In fact, he's heating up to an extent at the right time as well. three home runs in the last seven days alone. Now, on the other end, it's Randy Orozarena. I'm just not that high on him right now. He's been a fun player early in his career. He's obviously had success in the postseason, and he's been a big bright lights guy who's done well in the big stage. But he started this season hot with the power. He was hitting home runs every other couple games, just like pretty much the rest of the Tampa Bay Rays lineup. But in his last 15 games, Orozarena has just two home runs and no other extra base hits. And I'm a big believer in confidence going into the Derby. When guys are hitting well in the games, I think that brings a ton of confidence into the Derby. And I just don't think Rosarena has that right now. He doesn't really have the true pop numbers that Garcia has generally either. And I don't think he has that confidence to overtake him here. For Garcia, there's a bit of a secret weapon too. Tony Beasley, probably not a well-known name, but he is a hitting coach for the Rangers. He pitched to Joey Gallo in his home run derby appearances in the last couple of years when Joey was with the Rangers. And Adoles Garcia is a division rival of the Seattle Mariners, where the home run derby has taken place this week. He's hitting in Division Rivals Park, where he has dozens of appearances every year. I think that comfortability there, I think being familiar with the stadium and where the tendencies are, where the wind blows at a stadium like that is going to matter here. Give me a Dulles Garcia over Randy Orozarena in the first round blowout special”
Randy Arozarena beat Adolis Garcia 35-17 in the quarterfinal (first) round of the 2023 Home Run Derby on July 10, 2023, so Garcia did not beat Arozarena (Wikipedia, 2023 Home Run Derby). (Round 1: Arozarena 35 HR, Garcia 17 HR)
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Reds to win the NL Central plus 125. Break this one down for us, Jack. Well, to give everyone some context on this one, it's really a two-team race right now between Cincinnati and Milwaukee. They've played the same amount of games with Cincinnati, having one more win and one less loss so far. That gives them the one-game advantage right now. So they're one game up. Now, I think you're seeing this line where Milwaukee is favored to win the division despite being a game back because the Brewers just won a head-to-head series, two-to-one, with Cincinnati heading into the break. Now, not to digress too much, but Cincinnati should have won one of those games. I think they were hindered by the umpires a little bit in one of those games. Now, here's the important thing here. I think the Brewers have peeped this season. Christian Jelic has played some of his best baseball in years. Outside of that, this lineup has just fallen off the clip. There are just two regular hitters in the Brewers lineup right now, outside of Yelich, that are hitting over 230 for the year. Not 250, not 260, 230. This team is not racking up base hits. They cannot hit left-handed pitching. And offensively, they've really just been getting by by the skin of their teeth. Brandon Woodruff, who's really considered their number two, if not their number one coming into the season, is still injured and likely will not return to complete form this season. although he is taking some bullpen sessions and you look at this team's strength over the last five to ten years it's been their bullpen that bullpen is showing some cracks this year without josh hater who i'll get into in a minute i don't think this bullpen is the same i don't and i think that really shows up later in the season when you get into august and september when you're fighting for playoff spots for the reds it boils down to not only the young superstar and ellie de la cruz but the rest of this lineup and the pitching staff i mean we mentioned we've talked about Spencer Steer and all these other young guys that they've called up in the last couple of months. We've also mentioned Andrew Abbott last week, but this team has some other young guys like Ben Lively and Hunter Green, who's going to be back from injury sometime soon, to rely on as they're starting pitching rotation moving forward. Then the bullpen, out of nowhere, ranks 13th in baseball in bullpen ERA. I remember this team's reliever group being in the bottom five of baseball in just about each of the last six or seven seasons. If you look at the remaining strengths of schedule too, Cincinnati has the advantage. In fact, the Reds opened the second half after this All-Star break with a three-game series at home against this same Brewers team. After that, their remaining schedule is far easier than Milwaukee's. They have six more games against the Cardinals, six more against the Pirates, and eight more against the Chicago Cubs. Now, one other thing to keep in mind here. Look back at last year's trade deadline to see where these two organizations are focused and what their perspective is on the next couple of years. If you'll remember, Milwaukee was firmly in a playoff spot last year when the deadline approached, and they traded away the top reliever in baseball, in Josh Hader, for some prospects. Cincinnati did themselves the favor on the other end of expediting their rebuild by trading Luis Castillo, Tommy Pham, Tyler Malley, and a couple other guys for prospects who are already helping them this year I think you going to see a shift change here in the power dynamic of the nl central at this year deadline and the cincinnati reds are going to run away with it wrong team favorite”
Milwaukee 92-70 (1st), Cincinnati 82-80 (3rd) — Milwaukee Brewers won the 2023 NL Central at 92-70; Cincinnati Reds finished 3rd at 82-80, so the Reds did not win the division (Wikipedia, 2023 Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds season pages).
“Fandu line on this one the Reds money line plus 108 versus the Brew Crew Break this one down for us Well not many people know about Andrew Abbott Cincinnati starter tonight but he's been on MLB radars for quite some time. He's a 24-year-old lefty who was drafted by the Yankees out of high school in 2017, and then he decided to go to the University of Virginia to reenter the draft, where he was taken in the second round by the Reds a couple years later. He debuted this year, and he's been phenomenal. He has a 4-0 record in six starts. The Reds are 6-0 overall in those starts. He's got a 121 ERA in 37 and a third's innings pitched, and he has a 268 FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, which essentially tracks what a pitcher's ERA should or would be, if not for the fielding behind him. And that would actually have him at second in all of baseball if he had enough innings to qualify. He's only got those six starts so far. His fastball is just above league average and velocity, but more importantly, he loves to throw it, and he has great command with it. Hitters are hitting just 169 with 19 strikeouts and only 59 at-bats against it so far in 2023. And there's really nothing more exciting for a young pitcher in today's game than having a solid fastball as a lefty against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Milwaukee Brewers, they rank 29th in baseball in batting average, 29th in weighted runs created, and dead last in OPS this year against left-handed pitching. They're almost as bad as the Yankees without Aaron Judge right now against Southpaws. But the Brewers also have to rely on Corbin Burns today. Now, I know he's got the big-name recognition, and he's been a really reliable pitcher in his career, but he's been quite the opposite this season. To this point, he has not strung together consecutive starts of two earned runs or fewer. since early May. Since then, since early May, he's 4-5 with a .453 ERA, and he's already given up 17 walks in those 55 innings pitched. That's just not who Corbin Burns is at all. Something's wrong with him this year. The other problem for Burns, too, is that a lot of these issues have happened at home where he's been dominant. He's got just a .427 ERA at home versus a solid .376 on the road so far this year. I'm not betting against this Reds offense right now, and certainly not against their bullpen which has really been solid all year the wrong teams favored cincinnati reds plus 108 take down the”
Milwaukee 7, Cincinnati 3 — Milwaukee Brewers beat Cincinnati Reds 7-3 on July 7, 2023 behind two-run homers from Wiemer and Adames; the Reds moneyline lost (ESPN scoreboard).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Hunter Brown of the Astros over six and a half strikeouts plus 106 for Seattle. Break this one down for us, Jack. Well, I know we don't like to talk about it because the Mariners have been sort of a fan favorite across the league for a few years now. But this team's offense has been just such a disappointment this year. I mean 16th in runs per game with no real elite metrics to back them up And their 9 strikeouts per game as a team is second worst in baseball they also had a 26 percent strikeout rate since june 15th that only that only colorado has a higher k rate since june 15th and all of baseball that's already a pretty bad thing it's all it's even worse when you're strolling into a matchup against hunter brown hunter brown has some mini Spencer Strider numbers with his strikeouts early in his career. He's got 103 through 91 innings pitched in his career, and it's looking like the Mariners are going to go with six right-handed hitters tonight, too. That is not a big split against a right-handed pitcher who's really successful against righties. It's a good thing for Brown, though, as he's had better strikeout numbers against righties than lefties this year, which is pretty expected. His curveball is really what I want to keep an eye on here, too. It's almost like the classic 12 to 6 curveball that just drops out of nowhere the mariners rank bottom five in baseball in hitting against curveballs this year brown has a 37.2 percent strikeout rate on that pitch alone i think it's going to help him soar over six and a half strikeouts here”
Seattle 10, Houston 1 — Hunter Brown struck out 8 over 3 innings for Houston vs Seattle on July 7, 2023 (final Mariners 10, Astros 1), clearing the 6.5 strikeout line (ESPN box score). (Hunter Brown 8 strikeouts (3.0 IP))
“fandle.com line on this one The Phillies' money line, minus 125 versus Miami. Break this one down for us. Well, first off, I have to give the Phillies their roses. First team and only team in baseball this year to sweep the Tampa Bay Rays. They did it on the road in extra innings last night. They're unstoppable right now, especially offensively. Now, as far as it goes for this matchup tonight, I've been trying to get back on the Sandy Alcantara train for weeks now, and I just can't do it. There's something not right there. He's really fallen off a cliff, And he's fallen off a cliff at the worst possible time for the Marlins now that they're in a playoff race. Alcantara now has a 493 ERA on the season. That's more than double his ERA for 2022. And his peripheral numbers are not that good. He's really just not pitching with any confidence right now. His K rate, which ranked above average last season, is down almost four percentage points this year to 19.7%. He already has 10 home runs allowed this year, where he allowed 16 last year. And he has a stat line at home in a very pitcher-friendly park, Lone Depot Park in Miami, of 1-4 with a .486 ERA in 54 innings so far this year. He just hasn't inspired confidence, and he's just not reliable right now. As crazy as it is to say, I think the youngster, Yuri Perez, has sort of taken his spot as the ace down there, at least for the time being. You have to have an ace that inspires confidence in the lineup, even to win a 2-1 or a 3-2 game close and at home. And Alcantara just hasn been that guy this year For Philadelphia it more of the same over the last couple of weeks Zach Wheeler had his rough start to the season but he starting to come around He did have two rough appearances just before this one but he received a combined 26 runs of run support in those two starts to overcome his poor performances. And he should be coming back into his old self soon as well. He has a 403 ERA of the year, but a 339 expected ERA. And his fifth, that fielding independent pitching, which we talked about a minute ago, is all the way down at 282. So you should see him start to regress to where he should be, especially if he starts getting some defensive help behind him. All of his advanced stats are great too. 90th percentile in walk rate, 84th percentile in barrel rate, and a K rate in the 72nd percentile. In fact, if you look at his spin rates and his velocity by game, Wheeler is actually getting better use out of his throws and his arm as the season goes along right now he's getting an opponent that he just loves to face here in this marlins team with a bullpen that has been lights out during this record-breaking road run give me the philadelphia phillies to stroll into miami and run away with this one the philadelphia phillies money line minus 125 level three lock”
Philadelphia 4, Miami 3 — Philadelphia Phillies beat Miami Marlins 4-3 on July 7, 2023 on Cristian Pache's pinch-hit two-run homer, their 13th straight road win; the Phillies moneyline covered (ESPN scoreboard).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Cardinals' first five innings, money line, plus 104. Break this down for us, Jack. Well, you know, I keep thinking St. Louis has hit rock bottom. Then they find new ways to lose games. Yes. In game one of this four-game series, it was a late three-run blown lead by the bullpen. In game two, it was yet another horrid start from Adam Wainwright. And then last night, in game three, I don't know if you saw it, there was just a slow rolling dribbler back to the pitcher in the bottom of the ninth inning. He turns and fired it over the first baseman's head all the way to the bullpen out there, all the way to the bench And I was a walk winner on the air for the Marlins So the thing is you know the Cardinals have only lost through five innings just once in this series despite being on the verge of a four game sweep I think the bats have clearly shown up They got 15 runs through three games three games offensively But the bullpen has just let them down. So that's why I'm going to take the first five innings here. Now, Jack Flaherty goes on the bum. He's had his struggles this year. He's got a 460 ERA, but look at his splits. He's pitched just 35 innings at home and 51 innings on the road. Yet he has given up more earned runs at home than he has on the road. He has just a 373 ERA away from Bush Stadium this season, which is surprising. But he did spend some time on the injured list before his last start against the Yankees. I wondered if that would help him turn things around, and I think it did. He absolutely shoved against the Yankees the other day in his last start. So I want to keep an eye on him to be much stronger the rest of the way. On the other side of things, you've got Yuri Perez. He's this sensational rookie for the Marlins here. He's a flashy kid. He's got a 98-mile-an-hour fastball and some elite strikeout numbers. But I think teams are starting to figure him out a little bit. His expected ERA is up at .359 versus an actual ERA of .247. and he got shelled in his last appearance. He gave six earned runs on seven hits against the Braves. He didn't even get to a second out in that outing. He only lasted for a third of an inning there. I think I might be jumping on the Cardinals a little bit early here, but I think you're going to see them start trending in the right direction if Flaherty can get things going on the mound here in the second half. I've got the wrong team favorite, St. Louis Cardinals money line, plus 104 in the first five innings.”
F5: St. Louis 0, Miami 0 (final 3-0) — Cardinals and Marlins were scoreless through 5 innings on July 6, 2023 (Cardinals scored their 3 runs in the 6th-8th, final 3-0); the first-5-innings moneyline ties, a push (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Wander Franco over one and a half total base hits plus 175 versus Philadelphia. Break this one down for us, Jack. Yes, you mentioned it, Q. It's important to note first off that this is a bet on his total base hits, not total bases. So, for example, last night on yesterday's show, we gave out Hunter Renfro over one and a half total bases. And that prop hit because he had a double, but it would not hit if we had taken the over one and a half base hits because he only went one for four in the game. So keep that in mind with this prop. We need two or more base hits. Now, as far as the game and the matchup goes, we were on the Phillies last night in this matchup as they kept up the road winning streak. And tonight's matchup, I think, is quite a bit different because you have two really unproven guys starting on the mound for both teams. So I'm not going to play a side or a total here. I'm only going to play a prop on Wander Franco. Now, the reasoning behind this, there's some emotional aspect, and I like how we can get into layers on the show with these picks. There was no bigger all-star game snub than Wander Franco. Merrifield made it over him, and Merrifield has had an okay season, but nothing close to Franco. Franco has been an elite shortstop on the best team in baseball all year, And he ranks in the top tier in just about every single offensive and defensive category Not to mention all the stolen bases he racked up this year He already got 27 on the season He is tied for the fourth most games in the American League in multi games at 28 Only three guys have more multi-hit games in the American League. He ranks 10th in overall hits at 93, and he ranks 25th in at-bats as well. So he's not missing many games. He's not getting pulled early from games. He's batting second in that Tampa Bay lineup, and he is staying there. He's not getting pulled even in a blowout. But as far as this specific matchup goes, I think he's primed to go off tonight as well. In his last seven games, he's hitting .310 with nine hits in seven games, including three of those games having multiple hits. His BABIP or his batting average on balls in play is at .348 in that span as well. So he's getting lucky right now. He's had some bloopers, but hey, bloopers will count for this player prop. He also just dominates in this in this platoon more generally. At home, he ranks 13th in the American League in batting average at 301. And against lefties, which he's facing tonight in Christopher Sanchez, he's hitting 14th in the AL with a 313 average. The problem for Sanchez, who goes for the Phillies tonight, is that he's just not in a good spot here either. He last pitched on June 30th, and he is yet to face an offense that ranks even in the top half of baseball in run scoring, let alone as high as Tampa's. So far, he's pitched against Colorado, Oakland, the New York Mets, and the Washington Nationals. I think he's in for a tough one tonight. Take Wander Franco over one and a half total base hits, plus 175, hidden gem.”
Philadelphia 3, Tampa Bay 1 — Wander Franco went 1-for-5 with a single vs the Phillies on July 6, 2023 (final Phillies 3, Rays 1 in 11 innings), falling short of the 1.5 base hits line (ESPN box score). (Franco 1-5, 1 hit)
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Baltimore Moneyline, minus 120 versus the Yankees. Break this one down for us, Jack. Well, it's something I wanted, I noticed immediately about this play. You know, oftentimes in sports, and when you're looking at the lines in these sports books, you see what I like to call the big name tax. And the big name tax is where these books like to inflate the line a little bit on teams that are high in popularity. You see it in the NFL with the Dallas Cowboys at times, or in the NHL with the Toronto Maple Leafs, and the NBA, probably the L.A. Lakers. And in baseball, you've got a team like the New York Yankees. They're overpriced because the public loves to bet on them. They often have fans who want to bet on them. And the books take advantage of that quite a bit. I think that's what you're getting here. Frankly, the Baltimore Orioles should not be just minus 120 on the money line here, in my opinion. I think they should be closer to minus 135 or minus 140. You look at the Yankees lineup and the rotation. They're just plugging guys in at this point to help with the injuries. Luis Severino is probably the worst among those subs right now. He starts tonight. he's got a 630 era and a 694 expected era the vast majority of the time when you see a guy with an era in the sixes like six like severino his expected era is going to be much lower particularly because you just got some some fluky starts in there where they gave up seven or eight runs but that just how bad severino has been he not striking guys out he both he far below league average in strikeouts per nine meetings he walking guys above league average and he giving up a home run in almost one of every 16 at bats that he faces there's just not much good that you can say about him right now and he's facing an orioles lineup that is surely in my opinion, the most underrated in baseball. Now, on the other end, you got Kyle Bradish for the Baltimore Orioles. And this is a guy who a couple of years ago, I thought he was just another plug in for this rotation as they continue to rebuild. And now all of a sudden he's turned into a number one or a number two, sometimes a number three in the Orioles rotation. He has a 358 ERA and a 449 expected ERA. So he should regress a little bit here in the future. But I don't think that's going to happen today. What's important for Braddish is his ability to induce ground balls. He has a ground ball rate of 44.8%, which ranks him 39th among all pitchers in baseball, which is pretty good. That's also a massive advantage at Yankee Stadium, where they have some of the most hitter friendly conditions with the short porch in right field and oftentimes the wind blowing out. It's why he's had success there in the past as well. He's given up just four runs over 10 innings pitched in his career in New York. And it doesn't hurt either that this Yankees team still stinks against right-handed pitching, especially without Aaron Judge. I mean, you look at their numbers since June 1st, they're hitting just 205 against right-handed pitching since the start of June. That is 18 points lower than the second worst team in all of baseball in batting average against right-handers. Don't overthink this one. Don't buy into the New York Yankees hype. We're going with the Baltimore Orioles blowing out the Bronx Bombers for a level two lock.”
Baltimore 14, New York 1 — Baltimore Orioles routed the New York Yankees 14-1 on July 6, 2023, powered by Gunnar Henderson's 2 homers and 5 RBIs; the Orioles moneyline covered (ESPN scoreboard).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Phillies plus 112 versus Tampa Bay. Break this one down for us, Jack. Well, Tywon Walker was just awful for the Phillies to start the season. I mean, there are rumors of an injury or even a trade just a month into his Philadelphia tenure. And then something clicked for him in June because he has gone 5-1 in six starts with a 150 ERA, 34 strikeouts to just 10 walks and a 171 batting average against in 36 innings pitched since the turn of that month. Now that includes a current stretch of five starts where he is allowed one earned run or fewer as well He doesn appear to have changed a lot of things with his approach and looking back at his last couple of starts but he's hitting his spots well with his split finger, and he's only allowed two walks in each of his last three outings. He's facing up against a primary weakness of this Tampa Bay Rays roster as well. That's their starting pitching depth. Now, it's not because they don't have the guys to do it, but you look up and down their roster, Shane McClanahan, Calvin Foucher, Mike Clevenger, or Derek Clevenger, excuse me, Jamie Springs, Lou Patino, all on the sidelines with injuries right now for their starting pitching staff. That leaves Zach Littell taking the starting mound, the mound tonight for Tampa. And if you'll remember his Giants days, Q, he got in the face of manager Gabe Tepler during a mound visit last year, and he was shipped out just as soon after that. It hasn't gone well for him, or much better for him at all, in his time in Boston, where he started this season, or in Tampa Bay either. He's rocking a 528 ERA so far this year, and he only has one start under his belt so far after being relegated to the bullpen for pretty much the rest of his career at this point. He'll obviously be used as an opener here, which is not uncommon for Tampa. But if you look at their last couple of games, they used Jalen Beeks, their top reliever, yesterday for over two innings. And then they used four innings from their bullpen just the game before that in Seattle. I think Philadelphia keeps up their franchise record. 11th consecutive road victory tonight. The wrong team's favored.”
Philadelphia 8, Tampa Bay 4 — Philadelphia Phillies beat Tampa Bay Rays 8-4 on July 5, 2023, their 11th straight road win; the Phillies moneyline covered (ESPN scoreboard).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Hunter Renfro, the Angels, over one and a half bases, plus 140. Hidden gem. Break this one down for us, Jack. You hit the nail on the head there, Q. Just to recap for everybody who hasn't been paying attention to it, they've had a tough, tough series against the San Diego Padres. Padres. First, Mike Trout went down with a broken hamate bone in his wrist in game one. Then in game two, Shohei Otani left his start early with a blister and on top of that, a nail injury on one of his throwing fingers in game two. Just in that same game, Anthony Rendon, who has been really disappointing, but is still a major piece of this team, went down yet again after a foul ball off the shin. And I was looking into it, Q, at this point the season, Rendon has fewer starts than the Angels do wins on the year. So even in spite of his absences and his struggles, this team's still in the playoff hunt. So who's left on the roster? I mean, just a total of six of LA's nine typical starters are out right now with an injury. Six of their, two-thirds of their starting lineup is out with an injury. And that leaves our favorite guy, mini Mike Trout, Hunter Renfro, to pick up the load for the guys who are missing. I mean, Renfro has just been fantastic for them so far. He's hitting .249 on the season, but he's got an OPS of .751 and a .456 slugging percentage, which is just third on the Angels, but it's 25th best in the American League. That's going to happen a lot when you play with Mike Trout and Shohei Otani in your lineup. Renfro, he's facing a right-hander in Seth Lugo tonight. He's not had a ton of success against righties this year, average-wise, but when your batting average against righties is 239 and your slugging percentage against them is 470 just about everything you're hitting is going for extra bases and we know Renfro's got the power to take somebody deep or to jog in a second with a triple he comfortable at Petco Park as well he has 692 plate appearances there in his career obviously the most of his career as a former Padre and he has a clear night of weather here There very little wind breaking in I'm taking Hunter Renfro to pick up where his superstar teammates left off. Kid and Jim.”
Hunter Renfroe went 1-for-4 with a double off Seth Lugo for 2 total bases vs the Padres on July 5, 2023, clearing the 1.5 line (ESPN box score). (Renfroe 1-4, 1 2B, 2 TB)
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Blue Jays money line, minus 120 versus Chicago. Break this one down for us, Jack. Well, I think a lot of people thought it might happen, but Lance Lynn just hasn't gotten any better. I'm shocked the Chicago White Sox have not designated him for assignment at this point. Frankly, his ERA in June was at 628 in 29 innings pitched, and somehow it lowered his season ERA down to 647. He's got a 722 ERA at home. And at this point, it's not small sample sizes or fluky starts that have gotten the best of him. He just hasn't been good. He simply has not made any adjustments to his game this year. We've talked about it ad nauseum at this point with the bigger bases and, of course, the pitch clock and all these different changes to the rules. A lot of older pitchers, guys like Lance Lynn or even a guy like Adam Wainwright, who struggled this year have not been able to adjust their game. Lynn himself, he's still throwing the ball in the strike zone as much as any pitcher in baseball with a 67.1% first strike rate and a 48.3% in-zone rate, both of which are in the top 30% in baseball. The problem is he's just giving up a higher barrel rate than all but 12 pitchers in the majors. He ranks 12th in all of baseball in barrel percentage against. That's obviously a problem whenever you're a starting pitcher, but it's especially a problem against this Toronto Blue Jays lineup, who not only crush pitchers like Lance Lynn, but they have the seventh highest batting average, the 10th highest slugging percentage, and the 11th highest barrel rate in all of baseball this year. What's worse for Lynn right here is that the Blue Jays have the 10th highest zone contact rate in all of baseball, meaning that Lynn might be throwing strikes, but all those soft 92-mile-an-hour fastballs, which Lynn throws over 40% of the time, are going to get hit, and they're going to get hit hard tonight. On the other side of the mound, you've got Jose Barrios on the other side, and he's been really good for Toronto after a tough 2022 season and even a tough start to this season. Barrios is 8-4 with a 336 ERA since May 1st, and that's in 72 innings pitched. And he's really familiar with this White Sox team. He's gone 13-6 with a 326 ERA throughout his career against the White Sox while playing for Toronto and obviously Minnesota. I'm not backing the White Sox here. I think they need to pull the trigger and get rid of Lance Lynn. I think they need to put this whole team through a fire sale. Give me the Toronto Blue Jays. Level 1 lock.”
Toronto 6, Chicago 2 — The Blue Jays-White Sox game slated for July 5, 2023 was rained out and made up as Game 1 of a July 6 doubleheader; Toronto won that makeup game 6-2 in 11 innings, so the Blue Jays moneyline won (ESPN scoreboard).
“On Wednesday evening, you've got the Philadelphia Phillies taking on the Atlanta Braves, 6.41 p.m. Eastern time with the Phillies, minus 118 on the money line. What are we looking at here, Jack, for the blowout special? Well, you know, Aaron Nola has been a bit of a case study this season. Obviously a guy that was considered an ace, if not an elite number two starting pitcher in last year's World Series run. But Nola has been really off this season. He's just 6-5 with just a 466 ERA and a 1.099 whip in 94 and two-thirds innings so far this season. His expected ERA and his FIP are down to 466 and 417 respectively. But there are a couple of things you'll notice about Aaron Nola. The first is his up and down starts in 2023. His game log will show you he hasn't been able to string consecutive strong appearances together yet this year on its face. But I think he's starting to pick it up at least at home at Citizens Bank Ballpark in Philadelphia. Yes, he had a rough outing against the Dodgers in his last start. Who hasn't this year against that offense? But even including that start, he's given up just 10 earned runs in his last 26 and a third innings pitched at home, which is just a 3-4 ERA. That's much more along his lines. The other trend you'll notice for Nola is that as much as he loves to pitch at home, he loves to face this Atlanta Braves team at home even more. Just one registered loss in his last seven home appearances against Atlanta, and he's racked up over seven strikeouts per game in those starts. He's getting to face off against Atlanta's biggest weakness in this matchup as well. That's their starting pitching depth. They've got Max Freed, Mike Sirocco, and Kyle Wright all injured from that starting rotation, which means rookie A.J. Smith-Shauver starts tonight in his first road start in the big leagues. Now it looks like the offenses are starting to figure him out as he gone from zero to two to three earned runs in his three appearances this season And in fact that first appearance when he went scoreless was his first appearance on the road but it was in relief So I watched this kid a few times already I just haven't been blown away by his stuff yet. He's got about a league average fastball. He's got a four pitch mix, but none of those pitches really stand out to me quite yet. I think he's gonna struggle in his first real innings away from home tonight and especially starting the game out. He's also facing a Phillies team that is suddenly red hot, going 13 and four so far in the month of June. So let me back Aaron Nola here. I think this is a good buy low spot. Give me the Philadelphia Phillies money line, minus 118, blowout special.”
ATL 10, PHI 8 (10 innings) — The June 21 Phillies-Braves game was rained out and made up as game 1 of a September 11, 2023 doubleheader; Braves won that makeup game 10-8 in 10 innings, so Philadelphia moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“Well, and I look, I know the season just ended. I know a lot of these South Florida fans don't want to hear about hockey right now. I know a lot of Vegas Golden Knights fans and maybe some fans of teams that have reason for optimism, want something to look forward to. So I'm going to give out one play now. I think this is a line I want to get on early for several reasons. The season obviously doesn't to start until early October, but a lot is going to happen between today and when the season starts. That includes the draft, which is coming up in a couple of days. It includes free agency, which starts July 1st. It includes the fall training camps where tons of signings and trades happen across the league, just like they do in any sport. So lines are going to move. All right. You know, the public is going to jump all over the Boston Bruins at this number in a few months especially after the season the Bruins just had So why not get on it now No the Bruins are not going to have the same regular season they did last year Nobody expects that They broke records in the regular season with their points and their wins before they flamed out in the first round against the Florida Panthers. But look at this roster for the Bruins. Patrice Bergeron, Tyler Bertuzzi, Dimitri Orlov, and David Krejci are your notable free agents for the Bruins. With only really Bergeron as the guy fully expected to return to that lineup. They have over $4 million in cap space, which is not common for a Bruins team that's been spinning to the cap for the last decade plus. But this is one of the older rosters in hockey. Now, it showed last year it could still be an elite roster, but they know that time is running out on this core group of guys. They know there's not much time left to make a run at the Cup. They finally have cap space to change up this roster if and when they need to. And I think they're going to make some moves. This is not a team that's been afraid of the big move of the year or of the offseason either in the past. Now, the other issue with the Bruins when you're capping a future like this, especially so early, is that you need to look around the division and where the other teams in the division stack up and what their outlook seems to be in the near future. Are you really scared of anybody else in that Atlantic division? Personally, I'm not. I mean, you look at the Toronto Maple Leafs, known for their regular season success and failure to follow through in April. Tampa Bay seems to have finally fallen off their prime a little bit. Not to say they won't contend, but probably not a team I would consider for the Cup right now. The Panthers, they might have caught lightning in a bottle this postseason, but they don't have much of their roster makeup to contend next year, in my opinion. Yes, Matthew Kachuk is back, but that team is just not as well-rounded as this Bruins team is. And then you look at Buffalo and Detroit and Montreal. all. I think there's still another year or two away from taking the throne and seriously contending. You know, this Bruins team, you know, they have the confidence in a head coach and Jim Montgomery who they love. They have an elite goaltending pair where they can rely on them both again, or even trade one off for assets. They have an aggressive front office that is really up against it to succeed after such a failure of a 2022-23 season. They're going to make some moves. I don't think this plus 1300 line is going to be there very long whether it's because the public is betting on them or because they know they've got some moves to make before the season starts I think you get on this number now before it moves I'm taking the Boston Bruins to win the Stanley Cup at plus 1300 bet a little win a whole lot you heard it there from Jack jump on that line Boston Bruins plus 1300 and you know at my radio station there's a Bostonian in there who's a huge Celtics fan and a huge Bruins fan and obviously both of his teams got eliminated by South Florida teams in the postseason but he was telling me the Bruins are really the team he thought was going to go all the way not the Celtics but the Bruins were the team that you know really let down the city of Boston but I think next year could be the year that they bounce back and could be the year that they hoist the cup”
The Florida Panthers won the 2023-24 Stanley Cup, defeating Edmonton 4-3 in the Final; Boston was eliminated by Florida in the second round (4-2), so the Bruins futures ticket busts (Wikipedia, 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs). (2023-24 Cup champion: Florida Panthers; Bruins lost Round 2 to Florida, 4-2)
“Well, you know, I feel like I've had a good read on this series coming into it. And I think it's time to go back to the well. We have a play on that series on Tuesday night, pending the results there. I feel pretty good going into Wednesday night as well. So you know as always with baseball betting starting pitching matters most And I think you have a guy who is falling back to where he should be versus a guy whose numbers are a bit misleading in this starting pitching matchup Martin Perez he started the season among the AL ERA leaders at 241 through the month of April for this Rangers group. But he has fallen off a cliff since then. His ERA is already up to 454 now, with an expected ERA even higher at 491. His strikeouts per nine innings has dropped in every single start since the beginning of the year. And now his road ERA away from Texas, away from Globe Life Field, is up to 650 on the year. That's one of the worst in all of baseball. So as much as this guy was a fun under-the-radar candidate to back over the last year plus, especially on a below-average Rangers team, I think that fun is coming to an abrupt end before our very eyes. The second guy in this matchup that I want to key on is Michael Kopech. And with Kopech, you have a guy who's been misleading for a couple of years now. Just on his face, he has some of the best stuff in baseball when he's healthy and when he's on his stuff. But that has really been uncommon since the start of the 2022 season. He ranks in just the second percentile in all of baseball with a 14.7 percent barrel rate and a walk rate well above league average at 11.7 percent. You know, the thing is, he's gotten really lucky so far this season. He has left 84.9% of base runners on base this year. So he's getting himself into these big jams, and he's getting himself right out of it more than any other pitcher in baseball besides Shane McClanahan and Tyler Wells. that's just not going to hold up against a Texas Rangers team that ranks first in batting average and first in OPS with runners on base you know you use things like BABIP and left on base percentage to sort of determine what you think is good or bad luck for a pitcher in today's day and age and left on base percentage is one of those key factors to consider and Michael Kopech is going up against the great equalizer here in the best offense in baseball when they got guys on base you know with two bullpens that rank in the bottom 10 in baseball and ERA as well I think we're going to see runs early and often as in this one take the Chicago White Sox and the Texas Rangers over nine and a half runs level two lock”
CHW 3, TEX 6 — Rangers beat White Sox 6-3 on June 21, 2023 (9 combined runs), under the 9.5 total; over busts (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. Bruce Leroy, that's Alex Caceres, is actually plus 175, plus money right there against the Pit, Pineda. Break this one down for us, Jack. Yeah, Bruce Leroy is a Miami guy. We're hoping the winning in Miami continues this weekend. And in the co-main event of UFC Fight Night on Saturday, our Miami zone, he takes on the Pitt Pineda in the 145-pound men's featherweight division. Bruce Leroy, he competed on the Ultimate Fighter, which was still good, way back in 2010. And he's had an up-and-down career at 15-11 in the UFC and 20-13 overall. His recording is a bit deceiving, though. He's still only 34, and he's shown considerable improvement in the last few years, and he's actually won six of his last seven with his only loss in a close decision to 13-2 Sadiq Yusuf. And also, he took the interim champion, Yair Rodriguez, to a split decision. So this guy's still got quite a bit of energy left in him. His opponent, a 37-year-old in Daniel Pineda, is 28-14, and he's just 5-5 in two separate stints in the UFC, including 2-2 in his latest stint. Pineda, he has the distinction of finishing every one of his 28 wins, 9 by KO and 19 by submission. But I think the difference in this one will be the experience and the savvy of Caceres or Bruce Leroy. He's going to use his length. He's got a reach advantage here, and I think he's got the experience to take Pineda into the late rounds and actually finish Pineda here. So although Pineda's record of finishes looks impressive, he come up short when facing fighters of Caceres caliber So we gonna go with Bruce Leroy here He gonna enter the Dragon going to win this one inside the distance at plus 175 to continue Miami winning sports ways Give me Alex, Bruce Leroy, Caceres to win inside the distance at plus 175 over Daniel, the pit Pineda”
Alex Caceres beat Daniel Pineda by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) over 3 rounds at UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi (UFC Vegas 74) on June 3, 2023 -- he went the distance rather than winning inside it (Wikipedia event page). (Win by unanimous decision, 3 rounds)
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Rockies plus money, plus 102 at Kansas City. Jack, make this one make sense for me. Well, it makes sense when you find out Jordan Lyles is starting for the Kansas City Royals. I mean, anytime a team is plus money against the Royals, and especially against Jordan Lyles, I have to take a look into a play on that team. Lyles is the worst pitcher in baseball right now by ERA at 7-3-0 through 11 starts this season. And he still has not recorded a single win. He's 0-9 in his nine decisions so far this year. In those 11 starts, he has allowed four-plus runs in nine of them. So it's not as if just a few bad starts here or there have skyrocketed his ERA. This guy has been consistently, or consistent, he's just been consistently bad. So he's sitting in the 14th percentile in K rate, 32nd percentile in expected batting average against. He's only in the 10th percentile in whiff rate. He's in the bottom of 10% as well in a variety of additional statistics that follow these pitchers. Look, I never expect the Rockies to score a ton of runs on the road. This team is just built to score at home, and who wouldn't be? But this team might need to be relegated to AAA or the minor leagues if they can't put up a respectable number offensively here. Colorado's pitcher as well is really, he could be the ultimate X factor here. It's Chase Anderson, and I don't know if you know the name, but he's a 35-year-old guy that has bounced around the National League a lot throughout his career, and he just hasn't stuck in one place or another. but he might have found his spot in Colorado. He's coming into this matchup with a 172 ERA through his three starts so far this season. He's now got almost 16 innings under his belt this year, and he's not really showing signs of slowing down quite yet. He should be able to find some success against a really bad Royals team too because, frankly, everybody has. They're currently in the bottom six in all of baseball in team batting average and OPS. They rank 27th in OPS against right-handed pitching. I mean, look, I understand this this Royals team is going to be built around its offense moving forward with Bobby Witt Jr., Vinny Pasquantino and a few others. But this year has just been a complete failure for them already. If they expected to take the next step, I don't think they have. And I don't think they're anywhere near as close to that as they wanted to this year. Take the Colorado Rockies here in one of the only chances you're going to get to back them all season. Wrong team favorite.”
KC 2, COL 7 — Colorado Rockies beat the Kansas City Royals 7-2 on June 2, 2023; the Rockies moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Golden Knights are the favorites. Panthers plus 105 versus the Golden Knights for the series. The Stanley Cup Finals. Jack, break this one down. You notice when the line for this series came out Vegas actually opened around minus 150 And they been bet down to around minus 130 meaning there a ton of money and a ton of bets coming in on Florida here that has made them almost to a pick them And I don think that the I don think that the wrong play I mean, the best way to summarize the Florida Panthers entering the Stanley Cup final is house money because this team is playing with it. If you'll recall the final few nights of the regular season, the Panthers were essentially not in a playoff spot. All the Pittsburgh Penguins had to do to eliminate Florida was to be one of the worst teams in hockey, the Chicago Blackhawks, and they couldn't do it. When they lost that game, the Panthers snuck in. And what was their reward for barely sneaking into the playoffs? They had to face the best regular season team of all time in the Boston Bruins. Not only did the Panthers win that series in seven games, they did it while outplaying the Bruins in almost every game. It wasn't just that they won. It was that they were probably the better team. So since game four of the first round series, Florida is now 11-0 with a goal differential of plus 12 goals in that span. They've won all 11 games since game four of that first round series. They've done it with hot goaltending, with a power play that is converting on 34% of its opportunities, and with an entire roster that is just bullying teams from top to bottom. We've seen this in the past with teams like the 2014 Los Angeles Kings, and I think you're seeing it again this year. I mean, as much respect as I have for the Vegas Golden Knights, I haven't seen them necessarily separate themselves from their opponents yet. I mean, they were pretty much outplayed by Edmonton in that second round series, despite getting through because of the goaltending disparities. And they really struggled to put Dallas away in the Western Conference Finals when they had the stars on their heels. The power play has been just average. The penalty kill at 63%, ranked 14th out of all 16 teams that even made the playoffs. Now, keep in mind, too, Florida has to be able to win on the road to win this series. And the Panthers, they lost that series opener in Boston in the first round, but they won the series opener at Toronto and at Carolina. They've gone 7-0 away from home since that road loss to open up this postseason. I think they'll definitely steal at least one of the first two in Vegas to open this series. I've got the wrong team favorite, the Florida Panthers, win their franchise's first-ever Stanley Cup.”
The Vegas Golden Knights defeated the Florida Panthers 4-1 in the 2023 Stanley Cup Final; Florida did not win the series (Wikipedia 2023 Stanley Cup Finals series page). (Series: VGK 4, FLA 1)
“Vegas versus Florida. FanDuel.com. VGK Moneyline minus 130 versus the Florida Panthers. Jack, break this one down for us. So I think I've got a really good feel in this series. I already mentioned it just a minute ago. I really like the Panthers to win this whole thing. I think they're going to steal one or two on the road and they're going to do enough at home to win the series. But I don't think that's going to happen on Saturday night. Why? 10 days off before a Stanley Cup Game 1 series opener is not easy. 10 days off since they've last played a game of hockey. The 10-day layoff is the second longest layoff in postseason history. In fact, the 2003 Anaheim Mighty Ducks had an 11-day layoff, and they lost Game 1 of the Stanley Cup final. Then the 2006 Edmonton Oilers had a 9-day layoff, and they lost game one of the Stanley Cup final. Then in 2007, Edmonton had a nine-day layoff and they lost game one of the Stanley Cup final. So these layoffs have a history. They have a track record here of messing with the team's mojo momentum quite a bit. We just mentioned how much Florida has been playing with house money for the last several weeks. So the Panthers last played on May 24th at home. They won an emotional one on a buzzer beater to sweep Carolina. They got to celebrate and they finally got to take a deep breath for the first time all postseason. And really since the All-Star break. I mean, remember, this team should not have made the playoffs this year. And they snuck in. They've been fighting for their postseason lives since months ago, since January. And I think this is finally their chance to sort of let everything sink in and to look around. And I think they can get caught up in that a little bit. Now, they somehow beat the Bruins. Then they dominated the Hurricanes in four games They finally had that chance to sit back That just not going to bode well in game one against a Vegas team that really got a wake call in the latter three games of that Western Conference final against Dallas I mean they had they had that series on the ropes it was three nothing and then they let Dallas get right back into it I think they know they can't let that happen again I think they're gonna be motivated here in game one not to mention with that sellout crowd the home ice advantage there in Vegas the other issue I look to in this one is Alexander Barkov for Florida, or Sasha Barkov is his nickname. I know we don't have as many nicknames in the NHL world as the UFC, but Sasha Barkov, he got hurt in period one of game three against the Carolina Hurricanes, and he only played three minutes that game. Now, he came back with a strong game in game four to take the series, but again, I don't necessarily think that that 10-day layoff can help an injury like that. I think it's a shoulder injury is what it looked like, And I think that's a type of injury with just a 10-day layoff and you're barely on the ice every couple of days in that span. It can let that shoulder swell. It can get sore. And I really just think, you know, worst-case scenario, it's going to take him a couple of periods to get back into the swing of things. And this guy is the captain. He's their best defensive forward. He's still putting up almost a point per game in the playoffs. So if he's not at 100% quite yet, I think he will be by games two or three. But I think it's going to take him a couple of periods to get involved in this one. So give me the Vegas Golden Knights to take this game one. And then I think we're going to have a close series the rest of the day. So give me the Vegas Golden Knights money line minus one thirty level to lock.”
VGK 5, FLA 2 — Vegas Golden Knights beat the Florida Panthers 5-2 in Stanley Cup Final Game 1 on June 3, 2023; the Golden Knights moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“I've got a hidden gem on Carter Verhage of the Florida Panthers to record four plus shots on goal at plus 112 tonight in game one of the Eastern Conference Finals.”
Carter Verhaeghe recorded 6 shots on goal (1G, 2A) in Florida's 3-2 quadruple-overtime win over Carolina in ECF Game 1; clears the 3.5 SOG line (ESPN box score). (Verhaeghe: 1G, 2A, 6 SOG)
“FanDuel.com line, we're looking at this one. The Lakers are plus 5.5 minus 108 versus the Nuggets. Break this one down for us, Jack. I think you're right, Q. That furious comeback in game one, I think it was a good omen for Lakers fans coming into game two. Look, the playoffs are all about making adjustments in game and between games. Look at last night. The Heat were getting blasted and came out in the third quarter and outscored the Celtics to take game one there. I mean, it's no shock to say that Eric Spolster might be the best coach in the NBA, but it goes to show you how important those in-game and game-to-game adjustments can be. In the second half of game one, Lakers head coach Darvin Ham put Rui Hachimura on Nikola Jokic, which allowed Anthony Davis to sit in the paint and just wait for Jokic or any other Nugget player that beat their defender to contest the shot That adjustment almost led him all the way back to that upset win Can the Nuggets role players really keep it up I mean Jamal Murray Michael Porter Jr Contavious Caldwell and Aaron Gordon are all shooting over 38% from behind the arc. You know Djokic is going to bring it on that end, but will they continue to play at this high level? I don't think so. I expect at least two of the three role players for the Lakers, though, between Lonnie Walker, Austin Reese and Rui Hachimura to now know what it's like to play in the playoffs and to step up their game in a game two like tonight I don't think the Lakers will be fakers tonight Lakers plus the five and a half points and a sprinkle of some of your bet on the money line for a nice score tonight wrong team's favorite”
DEN 108, LAL 103 — Denver beat the Lakers 108-103 in WCF Game 2 behind Jamal Murray's 37 points; Lakers' -5 margin covers the +5.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“fanduel.com line on this one the cardinals and dodgers we're gonna roll over eight and a half runs minus 118 break this one down for us jack well the cardinals pitching staff was a major question mark coming into the season and when it was clear that Adam Wainwright was hurt and would miss the start of the year that got even worse but I kept asking myself over the last month and a half two months what exactly is this guy going to do for this team even when he does come back he's 41 years old he's always been the type of guy to take his time on the mound and make sure he's comfortable and he's coming back in the middle of the pitch clock era it hasn't gone well and I'm I can't say surprise two starts in wainwright has a seven two seven two o era and a 549 expected era all three of his main pitches have an expected batting average against over 300 he just doesn't look like himself i think his era frankly should be closer to eight or eight two and he's going up against the dodgers lineup that is just crushing right-handed pitching this year they're ranked second in weighted runs created and they're off against right-handed uh pitchers and they're off is just taking off right now specifically. They got over six runs per game in the month of May and an OPS as a team over 800 in the month of May. Now, Julio Arias is on the bump for LA as well. I love the kid. I think he's really talented, but he is not pitching as well as his 361 ERA suggests so far. You know, the first thing to study when a starting pitcher has a really good year like Arias did last year. It's sort of a twofold thing to look at. First, check his barrel rate. Now, for those who don't know, a barrel ball is a batted baseball with an exit velocity of 98 miles per hour or higher. So it's a well-hit ball. Whether it's a base hit or not, it's a barrel ball. The second thing to check is a guy BABIP or his batting average on balls in play If a guy sustains a low ERA but his barrel rate is high or his BABF is really low you can usually tell he in line for some negative regression It typically means that hitters are hitting the ball really hard, but they don't have a high batting average on the balls they do put in play. In 2022, Arias had a mere 6.7% barrel rate, but a historically strong 229 batting average allowed on balls in play. But in 2023, as you might expect, those numbers have come back down to earth. This year, hitters are hitting a barrel rate of 8.8% so far against Arias. So more than 2% increase in that year-to-year span. Now, then you look at his BABIP. After a historic 229 BABIP last year, he's got a 268 BABIP in 2023. He's not in a good split here either. Like I said, he's due for some regression, but he's also just not in a good spot. He has a 6-1-0 ERA and four starts on the road so far this year. And he's going up against a Cardinals lineup that is known for its ability to hit left-handed pitching. Especially with Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado hitting as well as they are in the Cardinals' last 10 games. I don't think we see any problem getting to 10 or 11 runs here. Give me the St. Louis Cardinals and the Los Angeles Dodgers over eight and a half runs. Level two lock.”
STL 16, LAD 8 — St. Louis hit 7 home runs and beat the Dodgers 16-8; combined 24 runs clears the 8.5 total (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [3:13] The New York Rangers plus 105 versus the New Jersey Devils. [3:18] This is to take the series. [3:19] Again, that's the FanDuel.com line on this one. [3:22] Rangers, Devils, series. [3:23] Break this one down for us, Jack. [3:24] Yeah Q you absolutely right The NHL playoffs are second to none in my opinion I know I a little bit biased but if you not much of a hockey fan if you trying to get into it this year this might be one of the best series to watch It the first time the Devils and the Rangers have met the playoffs in quite a while and I think it one of the best rivalries in the NHL I think the New York Rangers are a better team than the New Jersey Devils too Point blank period [3:48] I'm surprised we're getting them as an underdog here, plus 105. [3:52] I think the Devils had a fun season, especially early in the year when they're breaking franchise records and putting up goals left and right. [3:58] But they're just not on the same level as the Rangers are right now. [4:01] After the Patrick Kane and the Vladimir Tarasenko trades, the Rangers have probably the second best forward group in the Eastern Conference right there with Boston and Toronto. [4:11] They have an all-around defensive group that is physical, but they're smart with the puck. [4:15] They can contribute offensively. [4:18] I think they're far better than the Devils, who really rely on just one guy in Dougie Hamilton to carry the defensive group. [4:24] The Rangers also have by far the better goaltender in Igor Shosturkin. [4:28] Look, the double starter, Vitek Vanacek, he had a great regular season, but the playoffs are a different animal, and they're a different animal for him specifically. [4:36] In his three career starts, he's 1-1 with an 855 save percentage and a 4.25 goals against average in three career postseason games. [4:45] He's on a new team this season that plays a much different style than what he's used to. [4:50] I'm selling high on him as a goaltender here. [4:52] You have to get goaltending. [4:53] You have to be healthy to win in the playoffs. [4:55] I think the Rangers have the advantage in both of those areas. [4:58] So sell high on the New Jersey Devils here. [5:00] I don't think it's their year. [5:02] Take the New York Rangers in this one. [5:03] I think they get it done in six games. [5:06] We got the New York Rangers series money line, plus 105. [5:09] Wrong team's favorite.”
NJ 4, NYR 3 — New Jersey Devils beat the New York Rangers 4-3 in the first-round series (Devils won Game 7 by shutout); Rangers series moneyline busts (Wikipedia 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs bracket).
“FanDuel.com line on this one, the Golden Knights to win the Western Conference, [5:58] plus 450. Break this one down for us, Jack. [6:01] IQ, I had to do it for you. I had to give you one of your teams tonight. [6:04] So I think Vegas honestly has maybe the easiest path to the Cup Final [6:09] in the Western Conference, even ahead of the Colorado Avalanche. [6:13] I mean, Vegas is going to get Winnipeg in the first round. [6:15] It should be a quick series win. [6:17] Frankly, Winnipeg almost choked away their chance in the postseason [6:21] after leading the Central Division for quite a good part of the year. [6:24] They've really just fallen apart as the season went along. [6:27] I think that'll be a quick series win, [6:29] and then Vegas will get the winner of Edmonton and Los Angeles [6:32] in the second round in the Western Conference. [6:34] I think they match up well against both of those teams. [6:37] Edmonton obviously has the two-headed monster of Drysaddle and McDavid, [6:41] but they don't have much outside of that, [6:42] and they just don't have the physicality, nor does L.A., [6:45] to really match up with a team like Vegas. [6:47] So I think that's obviously one of the most important factors [6:50] in handicapping these conference futures. [6:52] One of the other most important factors is the team's injury situation, [6:56] especially in the goaltending room. [6:58] Robin Leonard has been out for the whole year, [7:00] and he will be out for the whole postseason for the Vegas Golden Knights. [7:03] They've known that for a while. [7:04] Rookie goaltender Logan Thompson was fantastic when he was healthy, [7:08] but it doesn't look like he'll be ready for round one. [7:10] I think he'll be back for round two, though. [7:12] So it's been Laurent Brassois, a 30-year-old career backup [7:16] who's been running the net for Vegas for the last several weeks. [7:20] Now that would be a huge red flag for most betters but bro Suat has been incredible this year It is 7 with a 2 goals against average and a 9 save percentage [7:31] And he's only given up more than three goals on one occasion in those 10 starts. [7:36] I think he's playing with house money right now. [7:38] He has all the confidence in the world. [7:39] And he should be able to carry them to a couple of games. [7:43] The biggest difference, though, in terms of the injury situation is Mark Stone. [7:47] I'm sure you've heard all about him in Vegas, Q. [7:49] This guy, he's one of the best all-around two-way players in all of the NHL. [7:55] He started skating last week in recovery from a back surgery, [7:59] and it looks like he'll be in the lineup for game one of the first round, [8:03] even though he's been out for months. [8:04] I think he's the guy who makes this team tick. [8:06] He's arguably the best defensive forward in the NHL, [8:09] and he can match up with anybody, including a guy like Mick David or Dry Saddle [8:13] or any of the top guys like Shifley and Kyle Connor for the Winnipeg Jets. [8:17] He's also a huge contributor on the power play for Vegas, [8:19] which has struggled a lot this year without him. [8:22] He's just the definition of a playoff player. [8:24] I think this team is being slept on a little bit too [8:27] because of the season Edmonton has had [8:28] and because of their injury issues, [8:30] but they're getting healthy at the right time. [8:32] They've been red hot in the month of April [8:34] leading into the postseason. [8:35] I think they have the size and the goaltending right now [8:38] to get to that conference final. [8:40] I'm not going to bet on them to beat Boston [8:42] or whoever may come out of the Eastern Conference, [8:44] but I do think they can contend [8:45] for that spot out of the Western Conference. [8:48] So Ben Little went a whole lot on the Vegas Golden Knights [8:51] to get to the Stanley Cup Final at plus 450.”
VGK 4, DAL 1 — Vegas Golden Knights beat the Dallas Stars 4-1 in the Western Conference Final, winning the 2023 Western Conference (Wikipedia 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs bracket).
“FanDuel.com line to Edmonton Oilers and Kings. [9:51] Over six and a half goals minus 108. [9:54] Break this one down for us, Jack. [9:55] Yeah, well, I mentioned that Rangers-Devils series is going to be one of the more entertaining first-round series of the postseason. [10:01] And while you're watching that on the East Coast for the early games, this might be the series to watch on the West Coast for those late-night games. [10:07] If you like goals and if you like entertaining hockey, this is the series to watch. [10:13] These are two of the most back and forth offenses in the game going at it. [10:17] You've got Connor McDavid, who I think will end up being the best NHL player of all time when it's all said and done. [10:23] And his teammate Leon Dreisaitl, they should be on full display against an L.A. team that's had tons of success that they've had tons of success against in the past. [10:31] In fact, if you go back to February 1st of this year, the Edmonton Oilers don't just lead the league in goals per game. [10:37] they're averaging 4.31 goals per game which is 0.6 goals per game above the team in second place [10:44] the kings actually don't come far behind far behind either they're averaging 3.62 goals per [10:49] game in that span those are ridiculous numbers those are numbers you would have seen back in [10:53] the 60s or the 70s when you had you know accountants playing in net for some of these teams [10:58] now on top of that Edmonton power play is historically good in fact again since since February 1st they clicking at 33 While the Kings are not far behind again they converting 27 of their opportunities That good for fourth in the NHL [11:14] So we got two red-hot offenses going back and forth here. [11:17] Now we're going to get Stuart Skinner in net for Edmonton to start the series. [11:21] I think he's the X factor as the goaltender in this one. [11:24] He had a great start for the season. [11:25] He tailed off for a few months in the middle of the season before finishing strong in April. [11:30] But I think LA gets to him a bit here. [11:32] The Kings offense really kept up with the Oilers in last year's playoffs, [11:36] and they pushed that series to seven games. [11:38] The Kings have done nothing but get better. [11:41] Now, they've had their goaltending issues early in the season. [11:43] They've kind of addressed them at the trade deadline, [11:45] but they've got a guy, Jonas Corposalo, [11:47] who they expect to start in the postseason here. [11:49] And he is one of these guys who's just been – he caught fire. [11:53] He's sort of playing with house money as well, [11:55] but he's not experienced in the playoffs. [11:56] He's still a career backup goaltender. [11:58] I think he's going to have plenty of issues, [12:00] but the Kings should be able to support him with three to four goals in this game. [12:04] The problem with the Oilers is that their defensive group just isn't physically strong enough [12:09] to suppress big offenses in the postseason. [12:11] And they would almost rather play a 4-3 or a 5-4 type of game [12:15] rather than a 2-1 or 3-2 type of playoff game where everything's tight checking [12:20] and nobody's making mistakes. [12:22] I think it's going to leave Stuart Skinner out to dry at times. [12:26] And I think early in this series we're going to see a lot of these goals. [12:28] I would be surprised if we don't have one of those three to three games in the third period here. [12:33] And that's a winner in that case. [12:34] So take the over six and a half goals in game one tonight. [12:37] That's an over six and a half minus 108 level to lock.”
LAK 4, EDM 3 — LA Kings beat Edmonton 4-3 in OT in Game 1 of their first-round series; combined 7 goals clears the over 6.5 (ESPN NHL scoreboard).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [6:23] The Rangers minus 134 versus the Phillies with the take-back being money line, [6:27] plus 116 from Philly. [6:28] Break this one down for us, Jack. [6:30] Well, you know, unsurprisingly, it's all about Jacob deGrom in Arlington this year. [6:36] He's the best pitcher in baseball when he's on the field, and understandably so. [6:42] I think that's a consensus. [6:44] But, you know, he's there to sort of expedite their rebuild and boost them into playoff contention. [6:50] That's all fine and good, but don't just jump on the bandwagon quite yet. [6:54] If you thought DeGrom struggled to get run support, for example, with the New York Mets, [6:59] how do you think he's going to fare with the Texas Rangers against a guy in Aaron Nola [7:05] who secretly had really one of the best seasons in Major League Baseball last year? [7:09] I get it. The Grom, he's a fun guy to bet on, but the public shouldn't have this Rangers team favored quite yet, especially over a team like the Phillies that made the run they did in the fall of last year. [7:22] But, you know, Aaron Nola, he's not going to blow you away with his stuff or his velocity. [7:26] But the guy had a top 20 road ERA in baseball in 2022 at 3.00. [7:32] And he's backed up by a bullpen that really, really improved, maybe more than any back end in baseball after last year's all-star break. [7:41] I'm just I'm not buying the DeGrom Rangers hype here quite yet. [7:45] I don't think you should either. [7:47] You know, one other thing to keep in mind here, too, the Rangers have the worst team in Major League Baseball on opening day since 1999. [7:56] They're just eight and 16. [7:58] If you bet $100 on their money line every opening day since 1999, you're down quite a bit of money. [8:04] They're actually two and seven in their last nine season openers as well. [8:09] I've got the wrong team favorite here. [8:11] We're going to the Philadelphia Phillies money line at plus 116. [8:15] Wrong team's favorite.”
11-7 — Rangers beat Phillies 11-7 on Opening Day; Philadelphia Phillies moneyline (+116) loses (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one, the Astros versus the White Sox, [9:29] over seven and a half runs, minus 105. [9:31] Break this one down for us, Jack. [9:33] Well, there's two trends are up front at center stage in this one [9:38] between the White Sox and the Astros. [9:39] The first one is the White Sox against left-handed pitching. [9:43] Frambois Valdez, a lefty. He starts for the Astros in this one with Lance McCullers still recovering from some injuries. [9:50] And he's facing one of the most unbalanced lineups in Major League Baseball over the last three years. [9:56] The White Sox are far in a way the best team in baseball against lefties. [10:00] It's just it's a matter of fact at this point. [10:03] In fact, if you look at individual team single season numbers against left handed starters since the start of 2020, [10:11] The 2020 White Sox have the second-ranked batting average at 285, and the 2022 Chicago White Sox come in at sixth place among all teams at 271. [10:24] So it's been up and down the lineup, injuries or no injuries, all season long for the last three years. [10:29] This White Sox team has just been crushing left-handed pitching. [10:32] The hitting against right-handed pitchers is a different story, but when this Chicago lineup is healthy, they absolutely mash Southpaws. [10:41] Tim Anderson, he looked healthy and strong in spring training. [10:44] Yohan Moncada, Luis Robert, and Eloy Jimenez are all finally healthy, at least to start the season. [10:51] This lineup is primed to hit again this year. [10:53] If only these guys can stay on the field. [10:56] The other trend to kind of keep in mind here is Dylan Cease's struggles against the top contenders in baseball. [11:04] Cease really took over the number one spot from Lucas Giolito last year for the White Sox. [11:08] He had a Cy Young-worthy season. [11:10] but we've been over this before. He's 28-10 with a 276 career ERA against teams with losing records. [11:18] But against teams above 500, he's just 8-16 with a 492 ERA. If you just look at his splits against [11:25] winning record teams, this guy would be a 4 or a 5 in most rotations. No team really encapsulates [11:32] those struggles for Cease more than Houston He 0 with a 6 ERA in four career starts against the Astros Now look again he had a great season last year [11:44] He was in the top ranks among every pitcher in hard hit rate, [11:47] in strikeout rate, in expected batting average. [11:51] But he's facing a patient lineup that will take its walks. [11:55] They'll kill you with extra base hits. [11:57] I know Jose Altuve is out to start the season, [12:00] but I'm not worried about this Houston team putting up runs at home. [12:04] I expect this one to fly over seven and a half on both sides here. [12:07] So we're going with the Houston Astros, Chicago White Sox, [12:11] over seven and a half runs, minus 105, blowout special.”
2-3 — White Sox beat Astros 3-2; the combined 5 runs falls well under 7.5, so the Over loses (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [14:23] Padres plus 1,000 to win it all. [14:25] Break this one down for us, Jack. [14:27] Well, I'm hoping we can call them Slam Diego again this year. [14:30] This lineup is just loaded top to bottom. [14:33] You know, Lee Sterling and I, we actually went back and forth on this one a little bit. [14:38] He brought up a good point that we could potentially get a better number on the Padres [14:42] if we looked at their World Series odds again, maybe midseason or as we approach the postseason. [14:48] But I personally like this bet primarily because I'm just not that afraid of the Los Angeles Dodgers this season. [14:55] like I would be most seasons. [14:57] You look at their roster, Trey Turner, Justin Turner, [15:00] Gavin Lux, and Cody Bellinger are all gone from the lineup. [15:03] Lux with an injury, but the rest leaving for other organizations. [15:08] Then you look at the Dodgers starting pitching depth. [15:11] That was their biggest strength last year. [15:12] It's much different this year. [15:14] I would venture to say it's even worse. [15:16] They've lost Tyler Anderson. [15:17] They've lost Andrew Heaney. [15:19] In fact, Clayton Kershaw is already dealing with his injuries this year. [15:23] And Walker Buehler, he's out for at least the regular season. [15:27] The middle infield for the Dodgers even isn't that good right now. [15:31] You're looking at Miguel Rojas and Miguel Vargas at the middle infield spots right now for the Dodgers. [15:36] Now, what I like about the Padres specifically this regular season is not just that they signed Xander Bogarts and that they're getting Fernando Tatis Jr. back soon and that they short up the bullpen. [15:46] It's also that their general manager, A.J. Preller, and the ownership group are starting to really spend some money, like almost Steve Cohen-level money with the New York Mets over there. [15:58] This team is going to be in contention for first in this division this year. [16:01] In fact, I think last year actually was just a bit too early to bank on them contending for the NL West. [16:06] And they're only going to get better at the deadline if they continue to spend the way they have. [16:11] Juan Soto finally had a full offseason with a new team. [16:15] And I just don't see anyone else really contending for that division title here, aside from maybe the Dodgers. [16:21] So I think we should get on this one now. [16:24] It might be closer to plus 600, plus 700 come October. [16:27] So we're going with the San Diego Padres to win the World Series at plus 1,000.”
The Texas Rangers won the 2023 World Series 4-1 over the Arizona Diamondbacks; the San Diego Padres did not win the World Series, so the futures bet loses (Wikipedia).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [18:01] The Mets money line minus 126 versus the Marlins. [18:04] Break this one down. [18:04] You know, this is just not a fair line to the New York Mets, in my opinion. [18:09] When their season win total opened up a few weeks ago, it was at 95 and a half. [18:15] They were expected to be contenders, unsurprisingly. [18:17] Then, you know, Edwin Diaz went down with a horrible injury at the World Baseball Classic and sports books reopened their season win total at 91 and a half. [18:27] Now, there is no way in any world, I don't care if it's Edwin Diaz or Mariano Rivera or the best closer in the world, that a closer is worth five wins to a team's season win total for the whole year. [18:41] This group has maybe the deepest, most consistent lineup in all of baseball, if not the National League, with Starling Marte, Pete Alonzo, Jeff McNeil, who was the 2022 batting average leader for Major League Baseball, and even more guys. [18:56] Max Scherzer is the starter tonight, too. [18:59] Let's not forget that they picked up Justin Verlander in the offseason. [19:03] Scherzer now has faced the Marlins 26 times in his career. [19:06] Now, how has he done? [19:07] Oh, a measly 15 and five with a 294 ERA overall. [19:12] That's pretty darn good if you ask me. [19:14] Now, look, I'm optimistic about this Marlins lineup. [19:17] I think they've added some really good contact bats to the lineup with Gene Segura, Luis [19:22] Arias, and now they have a healthy Jazz Chisholm. [19:25] But I'm not that impressed with the bullpen quite yet. [19:27] And this could legitimately be the worst defensive team in all of baseball this year. [19:33] The guys in the corner of the infield and corner of the outfield are just not there for the defense. [19:39] And if those bats don't make up for it, I don't know why they're kind of staying in the lineup. [19:43] And I don't know how the Marlins could contend with a team like the Mets. [19:46] People like to dismiss defense in baseball a lot because it rarely changes a game, or at least you rarely see it changing a game. [19:54] But we've seen it cost teams five to eight games in seasons past. [19:58] I think it's going to do that to the Miami Marlins in this game. [20:01] And I think it's going to do that to them quite a bit this season. [20:04] This line should be closer to minus 140. [20:07] Let's jump on it now and let's watch Mad Max do his thing on opening day [20:10] against a true superstar in Sandy Alcantara. [20:13] I like Mad Max in this one. [20:15] We're going with the New York Mets money line, [20:17] minus 126 against the Miami Marlins, a level one lock.”
5-3 — Mets beat Marlins 5-3 on Opening Day; New York Mets moneyline wins (ESPN box score).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. The Mets plus 650 to have the best regular season record in 2023. [3:29] Break it down for us, Jack. Well, you already mentioned it. [3:31] The Dodgers, the Astros, the Braves were all up there for the best record in baseball last season. [3:38] But a lot has changed with all three of those teams this season. [3:42] And we can get into that later But just looking at the Mets right now you know there a lot of concern in this clubhouse with Jacob deGrom signed with the Texas Rangers in the offseason They didn have it You know they had Max Scherzer obviously [3:54] but he wasn't the only guy that could carry them through the regular season [3:58] and into the postseason. [3:59] So what did Steve Cohen do? [4:01] Oh, not a whole lot. [4:02] He just went out and built up a $336 million payroll in the offseason, [4:08] which is $70 million more than the big and powerful, mighty New York Yankees, [4:13] the second highest payroll in baseball. They replaced DeGrom with Justin Verlander, [4:18] who's just a year removed from a Cy Young award. They let Taiwan Walker go and they brought in [4:23] Japanese import Kode Senga. This is sneakily a completely revamped starting rotation that really [4:29] had its issues depth-wise in 2022. They also called up two of the top five prospects in baseball at [4:38] one point last season. Not a lot of people keep up with the prospects in the baseball world, [4:42] And it's understandable with so many players and so many different leagues. [4:45] But these two guys, catcher Francisco Alvarez and third baseman Brett Beatty, were called up last year. [4:52] And very likely one or both of these guys will be a consistent spot in the starting lineup by the end of the season. [4:58] Keep an eye on Brett Beatty. [5:00] He's one of the best young power and speed combination hitters in baseball. [5:04] So I really like what they've got at the corner of the infield with Beatty and obviously Pete Alonzo there. [5:09] Here's the problem, though, for the Mets. [5:11] this team hasn't won a significant playoff game, let alone playoff series, since their 2016 World [5:18] Series run outside of a wildcard game to win last season against San Diego. The postseason just [5:24] hasn't been kind to this Mets team in recent memory. And in a series against a team like the [5:29] Braves or the Dodgers, or even a rematch against the Padres in 2023, I'm not taking those chances. [5:35] I think the Mets have a better roster than a lot of people realize, but I'm not taking those [5:39] chances when we get to the playoffs. They're the favorites to win the toughest division in baseball, [5:44] the NL East, and I would not be surprised at all to see them chased after even more talent at the [5:50] trade deadline. So why worry about winning the whole World Series right now when you can leave [5:54] it to this group to just win the whole regular season? I'm taking them at plus 650 here to have [5:59] the best record in baseball. Bet a little, win a whole lot on the New York Mets to have the best [6:04] regular season record at plus 650.”
The Atlanta Braves finished the 2023 MLB regular season with the league's best record at 104-58; the Mets did not have the best record, so the futures bet lost (ESPN standings).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [6:44] Virginia Tech minus 6.5 minus 120 versus Notre Dame. [6:48] Break it on down for us, Jack. [6:49] Well, these two teams only met once this season, [6:51] and the Hokies won that game in South Bend by six points. [6:54] It was a 93-87 finish. [6:57] Virginia Tech hit 57.1% of their shots on the road this season. [7:02] I mean, you don't see that too often, especially in the middle of conference play. [7:05] Was it a fluke? [7:06] I don't think so. [7:08] They also allowed Delaware State and William & Mary to score 90-plus points on them at home. [7:14] And at home is where your better defensive efforts usually take place. [7:18] At Notre Dame, the Fighting Irish, they're sky high on Wednesday in Mike Bray's last home game before he retires. [7:24] And they outgun Pittsburgh 88-81, and there's a big emotional backing for that one. [7:29] But in that win, Pittsburgh made only 20 of their 36 foul shots. [7:33] after such an exciting win The Irish of course got waxed on the road against Clemson by 23 points And that sort of what you would expect when a team shoots so poorly from the free throw line [7:44] You're not going to get that advantage or that much good luck in the next game. [7:48] And Virginia Tech, they had their high hopes for this season. [7:51] A ton of prognosticators projected that they would finish in the top four of the ACC. [7:56] They'll probably need to win the ACC tournament to get into the March Madness tournament. [8:01] That's not likely to happen. [8:02] But this is still a talented team that will play hard, and they can win a couple of games in the ACC tournament. [8:08] You know, the Hokies rank 100 to 150 spots above the Irish in almost every major statistical category. [8:15] When you watch this game tonight, I think you'll understand why Mike Bray is hanging it up. [8:20] Virginia Tech easy tonight in the play-in game over a defenseless Notre Dame team. [8:25] We're taking the Hokies minus 6.5, minus 120 for a blowout special.”
67-64 — Virginia Tech beat Notre Dame 67-64 in the ACC first round; margin of 3 falls short of the -6.5 spread (ESPN).
“FanDuel.com line on this one. [10:42] The Devils' money line, minus 137 versus the Maple Leafs. [10:46] Break this one down for us. [10:47] This is one of those situational plays that will really just get you excited for a play late in the season. [10:52] You don't get a ton of situational advantages in the NHL in the last month, month and a half of the season, especially with teams selling off all of their assets and, you know, tanking for the rest of the year and for the draft. [11:03] But this is one of those spots. As you mentioned, these are two teams right in the thick of the playoff hunt. [11:08] So there's no holding back here. But if you know, if there is an advantage to have, it's absolutely on New Jersey side. [11:15] this devil's leafs matchup has produced some of the most some of the best back and forth action in [11:21] the league this year but you just look at toronto schedule coming into this and the leafs are finishing up a five road trip where the first four games were spent on the west coast and three of those games were against current playoff contenders and then in the one matchup against a non contender against [11:37] against vancouver they lost ryan o'reilly their new trade deadline acquisition to a broken finger [11:42] and then they saw austin matthews get banged up a little bit on a blocked shot it looks like he's [11:47] going to be back for this game but he's not going to be a hundred percent now this leaf team has to [11:52] face New Jersey after a cross-country flight on their way home. And if you're looking ahead, [11:58] Toronto has their Canadian rivals, Connor McDavid and Edmonton, coming right up after this game. [12:02] This Leeds team is virtually locked into that second spot in the Atlantic Division. So [12:06] do you really think they're going to go all out in this one? I don't think so. And it's also [12:11] really important to consider here too, what happened the last time these two teams faced [12:17] each other in New Jersey. If you remember, Toronto broke New Jersey's franchise record 13 game winning [12:24] streak in the Prudential Center back in November. And if you don't remember that game, I certainly [12:29] do. I remember having a play on it. The Devils should have taken that one easily. They had three [12:34] goals disallowed in front of their home fans. The fans were throwing trash on the ice. The Devils [12:40] almost doubled up the Leafs in shots on goal. They just didn't get the bounces. They didn't get the [12:44] calls from the referees in that game to keep up their their winning streak do you if you don't [12:49] think there's a revenge factor here in this great of situational spot you must be blind especially [12:55] for a team trying to you know establish itself as a contender among these big these big dogs like [13:00] toronto and tampa and boston there absolutely is some big revenge here i think the devils will be [13:06] all over them again in this one in the rematch but i think we get a different result than last time [13:10] Take the New Jersey Devils here. Money line minus 137. Level one lock.”
3-4 — Toronto beat New Jersey 4-3 on an Auston Matthews power-play goal; the Devils moneyline loses (ESPN).
“The Vegas Golden Knights. [4:09] They come into this one. [4:10] 34 wins, 28 losses, 5 OT losses. [4:13] They going up against the Calgary Flames 27 wins 20 losses 11 OT losses FanDuel line on this one The Golden Knights money line minus 130 versus Calgary Break this one down for us Jack [4:24] Q, I had to pick one of your teams for today's show. [4:27] I'm going to step in. [4:28] And this is a great game to do. [4:29] It's a really big one in the Pacific Division [4:31] between the Knights and the Calgary Flames. [4:33] And Calgary's just two points out of the last wild card spot. [4:37] And Vegas is just two points up on the Los Angeles Kings [4:40] for the top spot in the Pacific. [4:41] And remember, this time last year, the situation was flipped. [4:45] Vegas was fighting for their postseason lives while Calgary was in a fight from top of the division with Edmonton. [4:51] But Calgary's just not the same team this year. [4:54] They had the big trade in the offseason with Jonathan Huberto and McKenzie Wieger coming in. [4:58] It just hasn't worked out for them. [5:00] I don't necessarily think it's those players to blame. [5:03] I think it's Daryl Sutter, head coach of the team. [5:05] If Sutter has implemented this new game plan of essentially shooting the puck on net as soon as the puck hits a guy's stick, no matter the quality of the shot. [5:13] In fact, the Calgary is second in the league with almost 36 shots on goal per game. [5:18] But you have to look at the quality of those shots. [5:20] And when you look at the advanced metrics behind this Flames team, it's just not as pretty. [5:25] They're sitting at seventh in the league in expected goals per minute or excuse me, per 60 minutes and just 19th in high danger chances per game. [5:34] both of which take into account the actual quality of each shot attempt rather than just the quantity. [5:40] So the other problem for Calgary right now, too, is the goaltending. [5:42] For whatever reason, Sutter has been intent on starting Jacob Markstrom in these big games, [5:48] despite his really disappointing season. [5:50] And if you remember from last year, he led the league in shutouts. [5:53] He was a Vesna Trophy candidate. [5:55] He was one of the top goaltenders in the league, but he's really just fallen off this year. [5:59] And Sutter is going with him again tonight. [6:01] You know, the Flames played last night against the Coyotes, and they started the backup, and they won that game. [6:07] But this is a much bigger game. [6:08] You'd expect them to go with their number one guy. [6:11] So Markstrom, he has just an 889 save percentage this year. [6:14] He's giving up almost three goals per game. [6:17] And now he's facing a Vegas team tonight that he's gone just 4-8-1 against in his career with an 893 save percentage and a 3.67 goals against average. [6:27] Situationally, it's not a great spot for Calgary either. [6:30] Like I said, they played last night. [6:32] They dominated the Arizona Coyotes. [6:33] But now they're on the back end of a back-to-back with some travel involved. [6:37] They also might be looking ahead a little bit to a really big matchup on Saturday with the Colorado Avalanche, [6:43] who have been in this wild card mix with them all season. [6:46] And the reason I think they might be looking ahead here is, if you remember in the offseason, [6:50] Calgary signed Nazem Qadri, who's a pivotal piece in Colorado winning the Stanley Cup. [6:55] That means as soon as he gets back to Denver and he sees his old teammates and they take the ice, he's going to get his Stanley Cup ring presentation. [7:03] He's going to get his tribute video. [7:05] I don't necessarily think their attention is going to be on this game with Vegas. [7:10] I think the Knights are a really undervalued team right now, a really underrated team. [7:15] And they're coming off a tough shootout loss to Chicago the other night that blew their five-game winning streak. [7:20] This one's ripe for a blowout. [7:22] Look for Vegas to get some quick revenge here. [7:24] 4-1, 4-2 final. [7:26] Give me the Vegas Golden Knights money line at minus 130 for a blowout special.”
Vegas 4, Calgary 3 (OT) — Vegas beat Calgary 4-3 in overtime on Feb. 23, 2023, so Golden Knights ML cashes (ESPN box score).
“how many wins they're going to get in 2023. [8:15] Let's go ahead and let you know. [8:16] In 2022, Boston won 78 games and finished fifth in the AL East. [8:21] Yeah, that is last. [8:23] So what we're going to do is the over under right here on wins. [8:26] FanDuel.com line on this one. [8:27] Boston Red Sox win total in 2023. [8:30] Under 78 and a half wins minus 108 Break this one down for us Jack I tell you what Paramount Sports has just been locked into the baseball offseason like you wouldn believe I already got my power rankings ready to go [8:42] Most of our clients' futures bets are put together and will be sent out in the next couple of weeks. [8:47] And I've even gotten into some college baseball betting as the season got going there. [8:50] I actually went 3-0 yesterday on those bets, all given out for free on Twitter over at ParamountMLB. [8:56] So give us a follow there as well. [8:57] I'm going to go ahead and warn you, though, Q. [8:59] this future is going to be on that client's futures card this year. [9:03] So lock it in now. [9:05] I think it's crazy to say this, [9:07] but the Boston Red Sox should finish dead last in the AL East this year again, [9:12] even behind the Baltimore Orioles. [9:14] We were fans of the Orioles last year. [9:16] We liked betting on them a little bit. [9:17] They were an up-and-coming team with some really underrated pitching. [9:20] Boston is on the opposite direction. [9:22] They're going in the opposite direction right now. [9:25] What I think the books got wrong here is that the Red Sox finished 78 and 84. [9:29] last year, but they got so much worse this offseason. [9:32] I don't know if it's the Northeast media doesn't really want to admit it yet, [9:36] but you just look up and down this roster. [9:38] J.D. Martinez, their best hitter over the past five years, gone. [9:42] Xander Bogarts, a top five contact hitter in baseball [9:46] and an otherworldly defensive shortstop, gone. [9:49] Rich Hill, Michael Waka, and Nathan Uvalde, [9:52] three of the top five Red Sox starters from last year, all gone. [9:57] Yeah, they got a little healthier with Chris Sale and James Paxton and Trevor Story healing up over the offseason. [10:04] But neither of those two starting pitchers has had a healthy season since even 2019. [10:08] And even when he was back, Chris Sale hasn't been his old self. [10:12] Now, Ben, I'm supposed to believe that signing 35-year-old Kenley Jansen and 36-year-old Chris Martin is somehow going to fix the 26th-ranked bullpen in Major League Baseball from last year? [10:23] Are you kidding me? [10:24] or am I supposed to believe that losing the best defensive shortstop in the game [10:28] and somehow replacing him with primarily an outfielder in Kike Hernandez [10:32] is going to fix what was the worst defense in Major League Baseball last year? [10:37] In the AL East with three World Series contenders and an Orioles team [10:40] that's on the up and up and can contend for the playoffs this year? [10:44] I'm not buying it. I'm not buying it at all. [10:46] This is a 70-win team this season at best. [10:49] This Red Sox team has got to rebuild things. [10:51] They're going to be trading off some pieces at the deadline. [10:54] Take the Boston Red Sox under 78 and a half wins. [10:58] And I'm going all the way up on a Thursday. [11:00] Level three lock. [11:02] Boom. [11:02] All the way up there on a futures bet when it comes to the Boston Red Sox under 78 and a half wins.”
Boston finished the 2023 regular season 78-84, under the 78.5-win total (ESPN team schedule, final game Oct. 1 vs Baltimore).
“the Boston Celtics one of [13:02] the best in the NBA 42 and 17 coming out of the all-star break and then the Indiana Pacers 26 and [13:08] 34 coming out of the all-star break fanduel.com line for this one the Celtics minus eight minus [13:14] 114 at Indiana break this one down for us Jack I'll tell you what I think it's a good thing for [13:19] the NBA that the all-star game is in the rear view mirror I'm guessing there's going to be [13:23] significant changes the entire weekend after the ratings dropped 29 from 2022 but look this is a [13:30] game that you don't have to overthink too much I mean the Celtics they're beginning the second [13:34] half push just a half game up on Milwaukee looking to secure that number one seed in the [13:38] Eastern Conference here's the thing though for the first time all season the Celtics will finally [13:43] have their top 10 players available for this game in recent weeks they've still been playing well [13:49] They moved up to the number four scoring offensive team in the NBA, and they're still ranked seventh defensively as a team in the NBA. [13:57] They might have the two best wing players on one team in the entire league with Jason Tatum. [14:02] He's averaging over 30 points a game. [14:04] And Jalen Brown, who's averaging 26 and a half points per game. [14:07] Other than their center, Miles Turner, Indiana has now gone to a starting lineup where all four other starters come in at 6'5 or less. [14:17] This is not a big team. [14:18] When you're facing Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown, you've got to be able to use some reach defensively to stop those guys or at least slow down the offense. [14:25] Indiana's wings, they don't play a lick of defense. [14:28] They're 22nd in scoring defense as a team, 29th in three-point defense as a team, and just 21st rebounding as a team in the NBA. [14:37] The Celtics, they're going to jump out to an early lead and win this one by double digits. [14:41] Don't overthink this one. [14:42] Give me the Boston Celtics, minus eight, minus 114, level two lock.”
Boston 142, Indiana 138 (OT) — Boston beat Indiana 142-138 in overtime on Feb. 23, 2023; the Celtics' +4 margin fails to cover -8 (ESPN box score).
“I think the wrong team is favored. We have the Golden Knights money line plus 104.”
LAK 4, VGK 2 — LA Kings beat the Vegas Golden Knights 4-2 at home; Golden Knights moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“the flames minus 143 versus the edmonton oilers break this one down for us jack yeah you know speaking of another team that's really starting to turn things around heading into the christmas break i think it's the calgary flames and not only that this is a bit of a revenge game for calgary after they lost this battle of alberta to edmonton in october at home two to three both these teams are one and one against each other so far this year with the road team winning each game but frankly calgary should be up to zero in these matchups they put up 42 shots on net in each of the first two games against Edmonton this year all while holding the Oilers offense to under 30 in doing so Since then, Calgary, yeah, they've middled out a little bit in the Pacific Division, especially with Jonathan Huberto struggling early. But I watched a few games leading up to the Christmas break, and I really thought they started to find something. They put together a really strong second line of Huberto, Nazem Kadri, Milan Lucic. And all of a sudden, Huberto put up four points in his last four, excuse me, six points in his last four games. So with the sacrifices they made in the offseason to trade for and sign Huberto, I think he has to be the catalyst for this offense moving forward if they want to be the cup contender they expected to be. And he's finally starting to do that. On Edmonton's side of things, you know, the issue really just continues to be consistency in scoring from anybody outside of Connor McDavid and Leon Dreisaitl. The Oilers are 2-3-2 in their last seven games, and McDavid and Drysaddle at this point in the season are scoring over 40% of the Oilers' goals so far this season. They haven't played a road divisional game since all the way back in October when these two teams last met, actually. And now the Oilers have a really tough stretch coming up after this one to round out the 2022 and start the new year. I think in a revenge spot in a rivalry match like this for the Flames, it's going to be the Calgary Flames for a blowout special.”
EDM 2, CGY 1 — Edmonton beat Calgary 2-1; Flames moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“This is a dead nuts under play. We've got a level three lock on the under 45 and a half total points between Wisconsin and Oklahoma State in the guaranteed rate ball. There you go. Going all the way up on a game that's not going to score a lot of points. That's what we're doing right there. Level three lock all the way up. Oklahoma State, Wisconsin under 45 and a half points, minus 110 level three lock here on a locked on bet so there you go some nhl action and some college”
WISC 24, OKST 17 — Wisconsin beat Oklahoma State 24-17 in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl; combined 41 points is under the 45.5 total (Wikipedia).
“We'll turn our attention to the NHL and the St. Louis Blues. [4:46] Talk about the Stanley Cup. [4:48] BetOnline.net line for this one. [4:49] The Blues plus 4,000 to win the Stanley Cup. [4:53] Break this one down for us, Jack. [4:54] Yeah, you know, I was shocked to see that we could get this Blues team [4:57] to win the Cup at 40-1 when I was looking through these Stanley Cup futures the other day. [5:01] I think this Blues group, they're going to be criminally underrated this year. [5:05] They finished third in the Central Division last year, [5:07] and they had no problems with the Minnesota Wild in the first round, really. [5:10] They just ran into the juggernaut that was the Colorado Avalanche in the second round, [5:14] and they had some injuries kind of holding them back as well. [5:17] Frankly, I think if you look around the Western Conference, [5:20] this Blues team probably has the best chance to upend the Avalanche [5:24] in the run to a Cup final right now. [5:26] You know, this team is perfect to make a cup run on top of that, even if they do get a chance to avoid Colorado until maybe the Western Conference Finals. [5:34] They're sixth in the NHL in terms of just overall size. [5:38] They're a big team. [5:39] They've got speed, you know, from lines one through four, all up and down the lineup. [5:44] And really, as of this past postseason, they finally kind of settled in on Jordan Bennington as their number one goaltender for the regular season and the playoffs. [5:53] You know, the last few years he's had some issues in the regular season, [5:56] but then he turns things around in the postseason. [5:58] He's just one of those goalies who's really emotionally charged. [6:01] He's motivated once he gets into the postseason, [6:03] and he just needs that motivation throughout the regular season to keep them in it. [6:07] So, you know, like I said, he had those struggles in the regular season, [6:09] but he seemed like his old self. [6:11] They probably could have beaten Colorado in that series, [6:14] if not for just a couple of awkward bounces and some bad injuries. [6:17] You know, Greg Berube, their head coach, [6:20] is one of the top three or four best coaches in hockey, in my opinion. [6:23] I think they've got all the motivation in the world [6:26] if they do run into the avalanche in the postseason for a little rematch. [6:30] The biggest issue last year for St. Louis was the health of their top defensemen. [6:35] Torrey Krue was out for the Colorado series [6:37] and really missed a lot of the regular season. [6:40] Justin Falk played through that series, but he was really banged up. [6:43] Those are their top two D-men right now. [6:45] Then a guy like Nico Mikola only played 54 games in the regular season, [6:48] and he's expected to probably step into the number three role this season. [6:52] Now, all those injuries really affect the whole power play unit [6:56] and all the defensive pairings that can kind of throw them into a loop. [6:59] And so at one point, they even had a 20-year-old defenseman in Scott Perunovich [7:02] leading the power play unit in the postseason against the Minnesota Wilds. [7:07] So it just seemed like if they weren't going to get in their own way [7:10] or Colorado wasn't, then their injuries were going to last year. [7:13] Those guys are healthy this year, though. [7:15] And this Blues team, I really do think they're big enough and fast enough. [7:19] They're experienced enough as well to take out this Colorado team in the West. [7:23] So let's take a bite out of the Blues. [7:25] Let's get them to win the Stanley Cup at plus 4,000.”
St. Louis missed the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs entirely, so the Blues could not win the Cup (Wikipedia, 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs qualifiers).
“The Dodgers minus one and a half games, minus 110 versus the Padres. [8:05] Break this one down for us, Jack. [8:07] You know, the San Diego Padres really have to be hoping that this best of five NLDS series [8:12] goes much differently than the regular season did against LA. [8:16] I mean, the Dodgers went 14-5 against the Padres straight up this year. [8:19] They outscored them by a really wide margin. [8:21] And frankly, it wasn't close when the games were actually competitive. [8:24] Now, if you'll remember just a couple of weeks ago, [8:27] the Padres won that series towards the end of the season, [8:30] but it was because the Dodgers had already clinched the division [8:33] and were arresting a bunch of guys. [8:34] So realistically, this 14-5 had the head record in the regular season [8:38] could and probably should be a lot different, [8:40] if not for Craig Kimball blowing up a couple of saves against the Padres late in the year. [8:45] This is also a really experienced Dodgers team. [8:47] They're the fourth oldest group in Major League Baseball. [8:50] They have the most playoff experience on their roster out of any team in baseball. [8:54] I just can't ignore also how much of a benefit it had to have been for the Dodgers [8:58] to see another 27 innings out of this Padres pitching staff against New York over the weekend [9:03] just to prepare for this series I mean the Padres staff gave up a 555 ERA in those 19 games head against the Dodgers this year including 31 home runs in just 19 games [9:15] So you got a chance to see Blake Snell. [9:18] You got a chance to see Hugh Darvish, [9:19] who are two guys who have historically and recently struggled in the postseason, [9:24] now going up against a team that they've already struggled against this regular season. [9:28] Now, one other thing to mention, too, [9:30] is that Julio Arias is expected to be the opening game starter for L.A. in this one. [9:35] I could not agree with this more. [9:36] I know this guy hasn't made a ton of national headlines this season, [9:40] especially with the year that Sandy Alcantara had in Miami, [9:43] but he has arguably been the second-best pitcher in all of baseball [9:46] behind Alcantara this year. [9:48] He's been an electric lefty for this Dodgers team this season, [9:51] and then that leaves any combo of Clayton Kershaw, Anderson, and Tony Gonsolin [9:57] that Dave Roberts wants to put together for the rest of the series. [10:01] So really, as long as a guy like Craig Kimbrell doesn't blow a save [10:04] or a guy like Trey Turner or Chris Taylor [10:06] are even a portion of what they have been in seasons past, [10:10] they both had a bit of a down year this year, [10:12] if they could just get back to where they were back in April, May, and June [10:16] when this Dodgers team was already running away with the division, [10:19] I think L.A. runs away with this one in blowout fashion here. [10:22] I think they could even sweep this series 3-0. [10:24] And so give me the L.A. Dodgers minus one and a half games in the National League Division Series.”
LAD 5, SD 3 — Dodgers beat the Padres 5-3 in NLDS Game 1 on October 11, 2022; LA covers the -1.5 margin by 2 runs (ESPN scoreboard).
“The LA Kings and the Vegas Golden Knights. [12:37] I'll tell you right now, everyone here in Vegas is pumped up about the Golden Knights this season, [12:41] what they could do after missing the playoffs last year. [12:44] There's watch parties all over town. [12:46] So there's just that. [12:46] That's why it's near and dear to the heart. [12:48] BetOnline.net line for this one. [12:50] The Kings Moneyline minus 110 versus VGK. [12:53] Break this one down for us, Jack. [12:54] Yeah, so for those who don't know how this hockey season is starting, [12:58] the Natural Predators and the San Jose Sharks actually kicked off the season [13:03] on Friday and Saturday in Prague in the Czech Republic. [13:07] And now every team in the NHL still has a couple of nights off after that, [13:11] and the first slate of games for everybody else is actually going to start tomorrow night. [13:15] So we're taking the Kings here on the money line. [13:17] This is just the second time in Vegas Golden Knights franchise history that they've opened the season on the road. [13:24] The first time they did it was actually their inaugural season. [13:27] And so they're playing down the road just in Los Angeles here against their division rivals. [13:31] The Knights had more turnover, though, than just about anybody else in the NHL this offseason. [13:36] They lost Max Pacioretty in a trade to the Carolina Hurricanes Matias Janmark who a really solid third center for this team is gone Dylan Coghlan is also gone to the Carolina Hurricanes And really the only guy they got back in exchange was a separate deal [13:51] in 35-year-old Phil Kessel. [13:53] So if you can't tell already, the salary cap issues have really caught up [13:57] to the Knights early this season and a lot in the offseason. [14:00] I think they're going to have to rely on a bunch of younger players [14:04] to keep them afloat this year. [14:05] uh robin robin winner their starting goaltender is also out for the year with a with a hip surgery [14:10] and that's thrusting rookie logan thompson into the starters role pretty early and pretty often [14:16] this year so i think it might take some time for the kings to gel to get this season started [14:20] now on the king side of things too you know this team wasn't really expected to be competitive last [14:26] year uh they were still rebuilding they they had a lot of young prospects ready to go for [14:31] for maybe the 2022-2023 season or the following year. [14:35] But things worked out. [14:36] I mean, Todd McClellan's a fantastic coach for them. [14:38] He had them fighting for the division throughout the entire regular season. [14:43] They actually beat Vegas out in the regular season [14:45] for the third spot in the Pacific Division. [14:48] And then they took the Edmonton Oilers to the brink of Game 7 [14:51] before they were eliminated. [14:52] So this is really expected to be a big step up in competitiveness [14:57] for the Kings this year. [14:59] I think we're ready to see them secure that third spot in the Pacific again [15:03] and for the next couple of years. [15:05] You're going to see a lot of the public betting on a team like Vegas early here, [15:10] just knowing their success early in the franchise history. [15:13] But like I said, they've got a ton of young players [15:15] and a ton of injuries to deal with early this season. [15:17] I think it's going to take some time for these guys to build some chemistry. [15:21] The right side here is the LA Kings. [15:23] We've got the LA Kings money line at minus 110 for a level one lock.”
LA 3, VGK 4 — Vegas beat the Kings 4-3 on Mark Stone's late goal in the season opener on October 11, 2022; LA moneyline busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“This one's a blowout. We're taking the Houston Astros money line. Minus 166. Go ahead and eat the juice there. Blowout special.”
HOU 4, TEX 2 — Astros beat Rangers 4-2 (ESPN box score); Astros moneyline covers.
“the BetOnline.net line for this one, the Flyers under 78 and a half regular season points minus 110. Jack, break this one down for us. Yeah, you know, we've been talking about football for weeks now and deservedly so, but we're less than a month away from NHL preseason. We're just over a month away from NHL regular season. So I've started looking at the futures the last couple of days, and we'll have a big futures card for clients this year. We'll have more information about the NHL package soon as well. But I was browsing around that online yesterday morning. I noticed that these futures and these regular season point totals were up So I looked around and this was really the first one to stick out The Philadelphia Flyers like you said Q they went 25 46 and 11 last year for 61 total points They fired their head coach in the middle of the season They finished 29th in the entire NHL in terms of points, total points by the end of the season. And they're set for a 17 point improvement this year at 78 and a half regular season points. I can't believe this. Just as I did last year, to be honest with you, I looked up and down this roster for some talent it's just not there I mean Claude Giroux their longtime captain and superstar isn't there anymore Johnny Goudreau was never there and he isn't going to be there after signing that big deal with the Columbus Blue Jackets and Ryan Ellis who is supposed to be your new number one defenseman in Philadelphia he's not even showing up to the building yet despite being traded there over a year ago due to injuries and there's a lot of injury question marks around him we don't they don't know if he wants to be part of the organization or if he's been really upset by the trade last year and just and he's just ready to retire with some with some hip issues you know there's just nothing to like about this team right now i mean sure john tortorella you know maybe the older school version of a guy like mike tomlin for you steelers fans out there he could get some better play out of this team but you're looking at a first line of kevin hayes james van james van reams dyke and cam atkinson i mean that's an okay first line but it's nothing special and not a single guy from your defensive group outside of maybe anthony d'angelo has performed to expectations in the last two years. The biggest concern of all for this team, as we all know, is the goaltending. Carter Hart is still there. They let Martin Jones go. Are you really going to expect a bounce back from this kid in Carter Hart? Even if he does bounce back, is anybody expecting him to propel this team to an additional five or six wins this year? Not me. Consider the division they're in. That Metro division is tough. All the turnover this season. Jump on this one now. I think we could see this one close near 74.5, 72.5. This future is going to move. We've got the Philadelphia Flyers under 78.5 regular season points. Level 2 lock. Boom. Level 2 lock right there.”
Philadelphia Flyers finished the 2022-23 NHL regular season 31-38-13 for 75 points (Wikipedia, citing NHL final standings); under 78.5 points covers. (Flyers 75 points (31-38-13))
“Take the over 7.5 minus 110 for a level one lock. Oh, level one lock right there.”
SF 3, SD 4 — Padres beat Giants 4-3 (ESPN box score); combined 7 runs, under over 7.5 busts.
“take the better team here for once at plus money. LA Dodgers money line plus 110. Wrong team favorite. Boom, there it is right there.”
MIL 5, LAD 4 — Brewers beat Dodgers 5-4 in 11 innings; Dodgers moneyline busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“Take the minus one and a half here for almost even money. I've got a blowout special on the Seattle Mariners minus the one and a half, minus 105.”
SEA 8, LAA 2 — Mariners beat Angels 8-2; Mariners -1.5 spread covers by 6 (ESPN scoreboard).
“I'm on Justin Verlander, and I'm on the Houston Astros money line, minus 110, level two lock. Oh, had a level one lock on Monday, level two lock on Tuesday.”
CHW 4, HOU 3 — White Sox beat Astros 4-3; Astros moneyline busts (ESPN scoreboard).
“Go with Dansby Swanson here. Over the one and a half total bases, minus 105. Bet a little, win a whole lot.”
Swanson went 2-for-5 with two singles (2 total bases) as the Braves beat the Red Sox 8-4 on Aug 10 2022; over the 1.5 line (ESPN box score). (Swanson 2 total bases (2-for-5))
“I've got the wrong team favorite here. It's really the wrong pitcher favorite. I think Sandy Alcantara, again, goes eight, maybe even nine innings for a complete game. Miami Marlins money line plus 123. Wrong team favorite.”
PHI 4, MIA 3 — Phillies beat Marlins 4-3 on Aug 10 2022; Marlins moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to take it again here. As Lee likes to say, we're going to go all the way up. We've got the Baltimore Orioles, the Toronto Blue Jays, over 9, minus 110 for a level 3 lock.”
TOR 8, BAL 4 — The Aug 10 rainout was made up as game 2 of a Sept 5 2022 doubleheader; Blue Jays beat Orioles 8-4 (Bichette hit 3 HRs), combined 12 runs, over the 9-run total (ESPN box score).
“take him on the over one and a half total bases at plus money right now tonight against the texas rangers that's our hidden gem boom there it is hidden gem little player prop bit jose abreu of the white socks they're on the road taking on the rangers and uh talking about his total bases one and a half bases plus 105 right there”
Abreu went 1-for-3 with a single, 1 total base vs the Rangers on Aug 4 2022; under the 1.5 line (ESPN box score). (Abreu 1 total base (1-for-3, single))
“Go ahead and book it. We got the Chicago White Sox money line, minus 125 for a level two lock. Level two lock right there, talking White Sox, talking Rangers.”
TEX 3, CHW 2 — Rangers beat White Sox 3-2 on Aug 4 2022 (Viloria pinch-hit go-ahead single); White Sox moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“The betonline.net line for this one, the Astros minus one and a half runs, minus 115 versus those Guardians. Thoughts on this one, Jack? I just hope the good people of Cleveland have been better than I have about, you know, figuring out this name change. I've still called them the Indians every once in a while. You know, look, Justin Verlander is having one of the best age 39 seasons for a pitcher that I can remember, maybe all time. and he's coming off Tommy John surgery. I mean, I remember when that used to be a career killer, and for him, it has made it even better this season. He has a 181 ERA this year with a road ERA that drops to 172 away from Houston. And really, what's most impressive about this season probably is that he has a 164 ERA on the road against teams with winning records. In fact, the asterisks have actually covered this minus one and a half run line in Verlander's last three road starts. But guess who they came against, too? The Mariners the Mets and those high New York Yankees So I don see why that should stop today He facing the Guardians and Zach Plesak The Guardians have been a fun story in the AL Central but Plesak has been a disappointment. He's 2-9 overall in the year, and he just pitched a July to forget. He had a 584 ERA and five starts in the month of July, and I don't think that's going to stop here. He's facing one of the best contact teams in all of baseball at night, And his expecting batting average, expected ERA, and his barrel percentage are all in the bottom 10% among all MLB pitchers. I'm not seeing anything here to suggest this guy curbs those trends tonight. Take the Houston Astros and their updated, improved lineup after the deadline. Minus one and a half for a big-time blowout in Cleveland. Boom. There it is right there. Big blowout special to the Astros over the Cleveland Guardians.”
HOU 6, CLE 0 — Astros beat Guardians 6-0 on Aug 4 2022 behind Verlander's 6 scoreless innings; Astros -1.5 covers by 6 (ESPN box score).
“So I'm going to take the wrong team favorite here with the Cincinnati Redlegs over the Miami Marlins. Plus 122. Book it.”
CIN 2, MIA 1 — Cincinnati beat Miami 2-1 behind Graham Ashcraft; Reds ML covers (ESPN box score).
“Take the wrong team favored. Yet again, it's the Baltimore Orioles, plus 110, wrong team favored.”
BAL 8, TEX 2 — Baltimore beat Texas 8-2 behind two Jorge Mateo home runs; Orioles ML covers (ESPN box score).
“I'm taking the Toronto Blue Jays here in blowout fashion. We've got a level two lock. Boom, level two lock on this Tuesday right there. Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays AL East. Really good game to look at and a really good game to monitor tonight. Again, Blue Jays Rays. BetOnline.net line for this one. Blue Jays Moneyline minus 131 versus the Rays.”
TOR 3, TB 1 — Toronto beat Tampa Bay 3-1 behind Kevin Gausman's 10-strikeout outing; Blue Jays ML covers (ESPN box score).
“I think this is a great number at plus 260 for probably the most underrated player in all of baseball. Bet a little, win a whole lot on Jordan Alvarez to go yard tonight, plus 260.”
BOS 3, HOU 2 — Yordan Alvarez went 0-for-2 with a walk and a sac fly in Houston's 3-2 loss to Boston, no home run (ESPN box score). (Yordan Alvarez: 0 HR (0-for-2, 1 BB))
“I think we've got the wrong team favored, the wrong pitcher favored. San Francisco Giants, first five innings, money line, plus 105, wrong team favored.”
LAD 6, SF 2 (F5) — Dodgers led San Francisco 6-2 through five innings en route to an 8-2 win; Giants F5 ML busts (ESPN play-by-play).
“So we're going with the Mariners and the Yankees over nine for a level one lock. There it is right there. Level one lock. Yankees, Mariners, over nine runs, minus 110.”
NYY 7, SEA 2 — Yankees beat Seattle 7-2, a combined 9 runs that pushes exactly on the over/under 9 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one Blue Jays vs. Cardinals under 9.5 runs, minus 110 Jack, break this one down for us. Yeah you know one of the big storylines this week across baseball has been that Paul Goldschmidt who the leader for the NL MVP right now and it not particularly close and Nolan and Arenado are not going to make the trip to Toronto due to their COVID vaccination status You know, we can talk about the other elite combos around the league right now, like Otani and Trout or Stanton and Judge, but I don't think there are two players more valuable to their team in Major League Baseball than these two right now. I mean, Arenado and Goldschmidt have combined for exactly a third of their team's RBIs. They both lead their team in batting average by a long shot. I mean, outside of them, you look down the lineup in St. Louis, you've got Tommy Edmond, Harrison Bader, you know, a bunch of guys who just haven't stepped up offensively. Tyler O'Neal is one of them as well. They just haven't stepped up offensively this year without Arenado and Goldschmidt. And then you look at the other side of things. You've got Jose Barrios for Toronto. This guy's been lights out at home with a 333 ERA and 5-0 record in Toronto so far in 2022. He gave up four runs in his first home start of the season, but since then, he hasn't given up more than three earned runs in a single start. And he's gone six or more innings in all but one of his eight starts to date. So I think he'll shut them down just fine without those two guys in the lineup. But, you know, we've seen this story before from the Blue Jays. It was just last week or two weeks ago when Kansas City came in without 10 of their guys due to COVID vaccination statuses. And Toronto really struggled to get things going for game one of the series. They lost game one, three to one then. And I wouldn't be surprised if it happens again here. I mean, it can be tough to get going mentally when you have such a lineup advantage and you don't get the marquee matchup you're anticipating with the NL MVP in your building. I think it showed in that series against the Royals. I think it shows again here against a guy like Andre Palante for the Cardinals, who's been fantastic as a new starter in their rotation. This all adds up to a low-scoring game, a little bit of emotional letdown for Toronto, and obviously depleted lineup for St. Louis. I've got the under-9 minus 110 as a level-one lock.”
10-3 — Toronto beat St. Louis 10-3 on July 26, 2022, 13 combined runs clearing the 9.5 total, so the under loses (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Yankees money line minus 105 versus the Mets. Thoughts on this one, Jack? Yeah, I cannot wait for this series. Both of these fan bases are just ready to go. They're champing at the bit. This is the first time in a really long time I can remember the subway series between these two teams having serious playoff implications as late as late July. And it's really exciting for, obviously, the city of New York, but more importantly, all of Major League Baseball. Both teams lead their divisions, and this series is just going to be great. I think, though, game one is the perfect time to jump on the Yankees. Tywon Walker, the Mets starter, has had a fantastic year, but there's so much more to his statistics than the MPI. The first notable thing is his ERA versus his expected ERA. His ERA is down at 255, which is fantastic, but his expected ERA is over a full point higher at 361 So you have to expect some negative regression for him soon And it makes sense too I mean his walk rate and his strike rate strikeout rate are both below his career averages. So he's allowing teams to put the ball in play a lot right now. He's just getting lucky and getting outs. Look, and frankly, this Yankees team is not the group that I want to be putting the ball in play either. I mean, you've seen the power up and down the lineup. You know, it's obviously Stanton and Judge, but it's D.J. LeMahieu to Josh Donaldson and Anthony Rizzo, who somehow has been forgotten in this roster, he's a beast. He's one of the best first basemen in the American League. The other thing about Walker's stats this year are his splits against good teams and bad teams. If you look at his record and his numbers against teams with losing records, he's 6-0 with a 157 ERA against teams with losing records. But he's just 1-2 with a 383 ERA against teams with winning records so far this year. Obviously, the Yankees are the best record in baseball. They're up there with the winning records. So, again, I think this is going to be a really interesting series with a ton of entertainment, but I'm just not as high on Walker here as others are. I think it's worth mentioning, too, that the Mets are coming off of a big, emotional, very attractive game on Sunday night baseball the other night against the Padres that they won. There's a bit of a hangover, a bit of a letdown spot after that Sunday night baseball game coming into the next week. You saw it last night when the Tigers just dumped the Padres in Detroit. I think you might see it here again. I've got the Yankees money line taking game one of the Subway Series level two lock boom”
3-6 — The Mets beat the Yankees 6-3 on July 26, 2022, so the Yankees moneyline loses (ESPN scoreboard).
“betonline.net line for this one we're going to roll Dodgers Nationals over eight and a half runs minus 125 break this one down for us yeah you know I leaned towards the over in this matchup last night actually and I decided to hold off for a more favorable pitching matchup tonight turns out that was a great thing I mean the Nationals held the Dodgers to just one run and a blowout win in Los Angeles I was shocked. But look, that's not going to happen again tonight. I mean, this Dodgers lineup is the second best offense in the majors in terms of runs per game. And they're 37 and 15 in their last 52 games following a loss. So, look, I think it's fair to expect the Dodgers to score their fair share tonight. They might even score all nine runs by themselves, especially with how hot guys like Mookie Betts and Trey Turner and Freddie Freeman are. I mean, if you look at Freddie Freeman's numbers in the last 15 to 20 games, I think his batting average is up near 500. So, you know, and he's just one part of probably the best lineup we've ever seen in baseball history. So you know there with all that being said I do think there are some weak spots in the arsenal for Mitch White the Dodgers starter tonight He the only Dodgers pitcher this year to be an underdog for L So books already have a pretty good sense that he the Dodgers weakest link in the starting rotation You know the numbers back that up to I be honest he has a 378 ERA but he doesn get many swings and misses. His whiff rate is in just the 15th percentile among major league pitchers. And his chase rate isn't just the 21st percentile. Look, he's nothing special, but I also don't want to understate the nationals lineup here. They haven't put up a ton of runs. Don't get me wrong, but you've got guys like Nelson Cruz and Josh Bell and obviously Juan Soto, who they're not they're not taking any at bats off with the trade deadline right around the corner. I mean, they want to get moved to contenders. This is their last chance in a Nationals uniform to show out. These guys have some pride and to play in L.A. and potentially their future, you know, in front of their future fan base. I think this Nationals team has something to play for. I would be shocked if they don't put up two or three runs by themselves and we can surely expect the Dodgers to carry us the rest of the way. so i'm going with the nationals and dodgers over eight and a half minus 125 blowout special boom”
3-8 — Washington beat the Dodgers 8-3 on July 26, 2022, 11 combined runs clearing the 8.5 total, so the over wins (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for O'Neal Cruz to win NL Rookie of the Year is plus 700. Break this one down for us, Jack. Yeah well like I said there weren a lot of sports going on yesterday So I spent my day handicapping and researching some second half futures And this was probably the first one that really caught my eye O Cruz is the future of the Pittsburgh Pirates And frankly it might be the future of Major League Baseball He a 6 shortstop which is the tallest ever for a shortstop in the majors But he has the speed of an outfielder. I mean, this guy is top one or two percentile among sprint speed around the majors. And yeah, he's not getting a ton of base hits right now. But if you look at his underlying numbers, they're impressive. He ranks in the top 5% in maximum exit velocity. he has drastically reduced his strikeout rate compared to his limited time last year and best of all you mentioned he's only played 26 games i mean the pirates are far enough out of a out of the playoff race that he's going to get the majority of starts at shortstop or at least in the lineup as a designated hitter moving forward and in the reason the other reason i like this play is i like the chances of the other two favorites of the national league spencer strider and michael harris the second falling off a bit strider is the plus 175 favorite harris is right behind him at two to one but look the atlanta braves are my local team so i see a lot of their games on my table package and these two guys are impressive but i don't see either of them holding on to these spots strider is a high velocity high strikeout young pitcher that's fun to watch but he just got hit all over the park by the lowly washington nationals and he's showed some kinks in the armor in his last few starts especially with his walk rate i mean not to mention no pitcher has won rookie of the year in the major leagues since 2016 and no pitcher since jacob de grom has won in 2000 since 2014 in the national league um you know you look at michael harris he's a speedy center fielder he's been entertaining at the bottom of the lineup for the braves as well but this kid's hitting ninth in the order for arguably the best offense in baseball for all intents and purposes i think he's going to be more of an afterthought on the national stage moving forward you know he's also been considered sort of a placeholder for eddie rosario who just recently returned to the lineup and has been hitting much better of late so you know why not take the flashier more hyped up and more popular player at o'neill cruz is seven to one i absolutely love this play for every hundred dollars you wager you get seven hundred dollars back we're taking o'neill cruz to win nl rookie of the year plus 700 boom”
Michael Harris II won the 2022 NL Rookie of the Year award on November 14, 2022, not O'Neal Cruz, so the futures pick loses (Wikipedia, Michael Harris II).
“The betonline.net line for this one. The Dodgers minus 138 for the Giants was a take back plus 130 for the Giants. Thoughts on this one, Jack? Yeah, you know, we've got a limited slate of games to pick from today as we sort of ease back into the season. But there are a couple of really good ones this afternoon with the Yankees and Astros, you know, squaring off earlier in the day. And then we have the nightcap with the Giants and the Dodgers I mean those are two of the best rivalries in baseball So you know looking at this one the Dodgers spent Tony Gonsolin and Clayton Kershaw at the All Game So they going with 27 Mitch White for this one against Carlos Rodon I like Mitch White. He's a pretty good pitcher, but he's certainly towards the bottom of the rotation for the Dodgers. And Carlos Rodon is just on a mission right now. He got snubbed from the All-Star Game, and he's been absolutely dominant since those lineups came out. And I think he's out for blood right now. But I like this for a lot more than just that pitching mismatch. I mean, you have to understand that the Dodgers just hosted an MLB All-Star game, an MLB All-Star weekend for the first time since 1980, with all of their guys like Kershaw and Mookie Betts and Gonsolin and Freddie Freeman all right there in front of their home fans. I mean, that's a big couple of days for this team and for these fans. It's an emotional roller coaster. And when you have to jump right back into baseball, especially against one of the top pitchers in the majors, and especially in such a heated rivalry with a playoff race going on, you're going to have to take some time to get back into the flow. It's not easy. I think this is a bit of a letdown spot for the Dodgers. I know they've seemed like a juggernaut in years past as a home team, but I would not be surprised at all if Carlos Rodon comes out here and silences their bats. The Giants don't seem to mind these situations on their end either. They're 24-10 in their last 34 games coming off of at least one day of rest. So I'm going with the wrong team favorite here. San Francisco Giants money line plus one third.”
9-6 — The Dodgers beat the Giants 9-6 on July 21, 2022 (Mookie Betts' 8th-inning homer was the difference), so San Francisco's moneyline loses (ESPN scoreboard).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. The Red Sox minus 130 to miss the playoffs. Break this one down for us, Jack. Yeah, like you mentioned, look, this team is already two games back with a wildcard right now. The Blue Jays are holding down the last spot, and the Cleveland Guardians are right on their tails at two and a half games back of the last wildcard spot. So you need to look at these schedules. You need to look at who these teams are going to be facing here in the latter half of the season. And the first thing I noticed is Boston has the second toughest remaining strength of schedule in Major League Baseball. That includes nine against the Yankees and nine games against the Tampa Bay Rays And then you look at who they open with just to start this post break stretch They got three against Toronto and then four straight against Cleveland So you could almost see this wild card almost shaping up right here in the next week or week and a half. Now, look, that's not even to mention the fact that Boston is in the toughest division in baseball right now. I don't think there's any denying that. You've got the Yankees, who are probably the best team in baseball. You've got Tampa, who is just quietly coasted along the way in second place. Then you've got Toronto, who has been a bit of a disappointment, but they're starting to pick things up recently. And now all of a sudden, Boston has Baltimore on their tails. I mean, the Orioles are apparently going to contend for a postseason spot all of a sudden. So this schedule is already hard enough. And every divisional game you play from here on out is going to be so tough. You know, I have my concerns about this roster more broadly as well. Their pitching staff ranks just 19th in wins above replacement or more. They rank 20th in ERA. They've already got a ton of guys on the injured list. It's not like they have enough of a cushion to keep throwing these minor league pitchers out there to just go three or four innings and hope for the best from the bullpen. As far as the lineup goes, Trevor Story has played really well since moving to second base, but now he's on the injured list. Quique Hernandez, their typical leadoff hitter, and Christian Arroyo are both on the injured list as well. And then you look at their prospect group, and there's just not much to move for a big bat at the deadline. I think Boston's in trouble here. I really do. And the longer this season goes, the tighter things get, and the harder it is to gain some ground on those teams in front of you. So I'm taking the Red Sox to miss the playoffs here. I wouldn't be surprised if we got a whole lot more clarity on the AL's postseason picture in the next one to two weeks. So jump on this line now. We're taking the Boston Red Sox to miss the playoffs. Minus 130 for a level two lock.”
Boston finished the 2022 season 78-84 and was eliminated from playoff contention on September 25, 2022, so the 'miss the playoffs' pick wins (Wikipedia, 2022 Boston Red Sox season).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Tampa Bay Rays money line plus 193 versus New York Yankees. Break this one down for us. Well, yeah, look, this all comes down to Garrett Cole. He's had a fantastic season. There's no denying that. He's probably one of the top two or three pitchers in the American League. But anybody who watches baseball, and the Yankees more specifically, knows that he has some issues getting over these mental hurdles. Everyone in the city of Boston will remind you that he has not pitched well against the Red Sox at all in his Yankees career. But if there's one team that has had more success against Garrett Cole and the Sox, it's these Tampa Bay Rays. And I don't think many people talk about that. But believe it or not, Cole's just one in six with a 421 ERA in his career against Tampa. And frankly, his last few starts, he hasn't been himself. Dating back to May 13th, he's given up three or more earned runs in three of his last six starts, including seven earned runs on five homers just the other day in Minnesota. For some reason, Tampa just has these Yankees number, and they've won 13 of their last 14 in the Bronx. And, you know, when you're betting the MLB, the series opener is typically the time where you get to see an underdog show some bite in baseball. So I think we've got a good shot at picking one up here. For every $100 you wager, you get almost $200 back. This line is too high. I think Corey Kluber is an experienced guy. He's pitched pretty well this year. I think he gives us a decent shot And I think these Rays are going to surprise some people right here They going to hit the ball well against Garrett Cole So I got bet a little win a lot on the Tampa Bay Rays at plus 193 This is a you really not risking much”
NYY 2, TB 0 — Yankees shut out the Rays 2-0 behind Gerrit Cole; Tampa's moneyline at +193 busts (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net line for this one. Tampa Bay Rays money line plus 193 versus New York Yankees. Break this one down for us. Well, yeah, look, this all comes down to Garrett Cole. He's had a fantastic season. There's no denying that. He's probably one of the top two or three pitchers in the American League. But anybody who watches baseball, and the Yankees more specifically, knows that he has some issues getting over these mental hurdles. Everyone in the city of Boston will remind you that he has not pitched well against the Red Sox at all in his Yankees career. But if there's one team that has had more success against Garrett Cole and the Sox, it's these Tampa Bay Rays. And I don't think many people talk about that. But believe it or not, Cole's just one in six with a 421 ERA in his career against Tampa. And frankly, his last few starts, he hasn't been himself. Dating back to May 13th, he's given up three or more earned runs in three of his last six starts, including seven earned runs on five homers just the other day in Minnesota. For some reason, Tampa just has these Yankees number, and they've won 13 of their last 14 in the Bronx. And, you know, when you're betting the MLB, the series opener is typically the time where you get to see an underdog show some bite in baseball. So I think we've got a good shot at picking one up here. For every $100 you wager, you get almost $200 back. This line is too high. I think Corey Kluber is an experienced guy. He's pitched pretty well this year. I think he gives us a decent shot And I think these Rays are going to surprise some people right here They going to hit the ball well against Garrett Cole So I got bet a little win a lot on the Tampa Bay Rays at plus 193 This is a you really not risking much You're going to win a lot though. I like it. That's the name of the game for me, man. Not risk a lot and not risk much and be able to win a lot. That's exactly what I love. Anyone who's listened to this show for any amount of time knows that is right up my alley. So that's how we're getting things started on this Tuesday with bet a little, win a lot. We still on the way. We've got the blowout special and multiple lock of the days. Got Major League Baseball and NHL Stanley Cup final on the way. We've got to first tell you about the title sponsor of the show, which is BetOnline.net, your number one source for all your betting stats and sports information. They are the fuel to this show each and every day. They've got the latest sports development, news, and odds. They've got the NBA finals. They've got the Stanley Cup finals. They've got Major League Baseball. And, of course, MMA, UFC, boxing, all the fight game, they have that covered. BetOnline.net is your continued source for all your sports wagering information, live betting, eSports, and a whole lot more. Head to the website today, use your laptop or your mobile device, learn about the trends and all the action. BetOnline.net, that's where the game starts. Oh, boy. Last one out, turn off the lights. This one's a blowout. All right, Jack, here we go. Got to get into the blowout special. Stanley Cup final game number one. It gets started with the Colorado Avalanche and the Tampa Bay Lightning playing for all the marbles. I like this series already. I like it on paper, but we're going to see it on the ice. BetOnline.net line for this one. The Avalanche versus Tampa Bay. Going to roll with this one. Over six goals, minus 115. Thoughts on this one, Jack? Yeah, look, frankly, these are the two best teams in hockey this year. I know Tampa, you know, they didn't have the best record in the Eastern Conference, but they were the best team throughout. They've obviously been the best team in the Eastern Conference during the postseason. And I don't know what else you can say about the Colorado Avalanche. They've only lost two games this entire postseason. But if there's ever going to be a game for these two teams to play a track meet, I think it's going to be game one. You heard it the other day. John Cooper, the head coach of the Tampa Bay Lightning, he came out and he frankly said it. He said, we don't like games one. You know, we don't like game one. We want to make adjustments. We're not that great on the fly jumping into a series. But once we make those adjustments, we can figure out teams game plans and their structure pretty well. So, you know, yes, Andre Vasilevsky, he's been able to completely silence some offenses this postseason. But it hasn't necessarily come early on. If you'll remember, games one and two against Toronto, he gave up a combined eight goals in those two games. And then he gave up a combined nine goals in the first two games against the Rangers before shutting them down in the Eastern Conference Final. The other thing to consider here is the Avalanche are getting some rest. It's going to be nine days between games for them. And they've had some important injuries to address in the meantime. Nazem Khadri and Andrew Cogliano suffered some hand injuries. And Darcy Kemper, their starting goaltender, has been dealing with some concussion-like syndrome. but it's been it's looking like all three will miss this game but even if Kemper plays in net he hasn't exactly played well this postseason they played a ton of hockey in a short period of time have have Colorado and and the over is seven two and three so seven wins two losses and three pushes in the last 12 games on three or more days of rest I think if anything the rust you'll see on Colorado's end comes from the defensive side but there's just too much firepower up front on both teams. I have no doubt that Tampa can match Colorado's pace. I'd be shocked if we don't have a 3-3 game by the midway point of the third period here. Should be no problem hitting the over six. We've got a blowout special on the over six goals, minus 115, in game one of the Stanley Cup final.”
4-3 — Avalanche beat Lightning 4-3 in overtime in Stanley Cup Final Game 1; combined 7 goals cleared the over 6 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net live for this one. The Rockies and Guardians, over 10.5 runs, plus 100. Man, break this one down for us. Well, Antonio Cinzatella, he's the Rockies starter in this one. He's been there for almost a dozen years now. The over is eight and one in his nine starts this season. And it's with good reason. He actually has decent numbers at home. He's got a 376 ERA course field. But if you look deeper, it's clear that that's not going to last. He ranks among the bottom 1% of all MLB pitchers in expected ERA and expected batting average against, which are both metrics that determine what your numbers are going to look like over the next one to two months. and he ranks in the bottom 1% in whiff rate or swings and misses on pitches. When batters swing, they're missing quite a bit. So if you don't consider the good luck he's had, he's statistically having the worst season of his career. Even his strikeout rate, which you really need if you're going to pitch well at Coors Field to avoid some contact, is a full 5% below his career average. I think that luck is going to run out tonight. He's facing a Cleveland lineup that can hit the cover off the ball up and down the lineup. You might not be used to that from the Cleveland Indians or Guardians in years past, but this offense is different. They rank 10th in the league in OPS, and they're averaging almost five runs per game in the month of June. The problem for Cleveland is that Shane Bieber, their ace and a guy that I really like, a guy we've spoken about on this podcast quite a few times, is making his first career start in Denver tonight. After all these years with Cleveland, he's finally making his first career start at Coors Field. And with that altitude and the way the ball flies off of the bats in Colorado, I wouldn't feel so comfortable betting on him to just shut down the Rockies offense. I wouldn't be comfortable betting on an under here either. I think we see an 8-5 or an 8-6 game in this one. Keep in mind the Rockies bullpen is probably the worst in the MLB. I think we're going to see runs on both sides of the bat tonight, and we're going to see runs early and often. I like it. I like it. Over 10 and a half runs plus 100. Man, that's a lot of firepower going on right there between the Rockies and the Guardians. And nothing's wrong with that. I say it to Lee all the time. You get a run. You get a run. You get a run. Everyone's scoring runs. And that makes the games that much more exciting. What level lock are we doing on this one? We're going with a level two lock. Boom. Rockies and Guardians over 10 and a half. I like it. I like it. There it is. Level two lock right there. Rockies, Guardians over 10 and a half runs plus 100.”
4-3 — The actual matchup was Cleveland at Colorado (not Colorado at Cleveland as logged); Guardians beat Rockies 4-3 in 10 innings, 7 combined runs falling short of the over 10.5 (ESPN box score).
“BetOnline.net live for this. We're rolling to Tampa Bay Lightning plus one and a half games minus 145 versus the Avalanche. Break this one down for us Yeah look full disclosure our NHL clients over at Paramount Sports have a preseason future on the Colorado Avalanche to win the Stanley Cup at plus 550 So we rolling in some profit on this one no matter what But I do think that this series is going at least seven games if Tampa doesn't even win at all. By the end of the conference finals, like I said, it was clear that these two were the best two teams in the NHL this season. Tampa, frankly, hasn't even faced much adversity since really the first round against Toronto when they went to game seven. And Colorado's only lost two games this entire postseason. But the fact of the matter is you can dive into the metrics and the numbers all you want to. But the intangibles really show in the finals, in the cup finals. Same in the World Series, same in the Super Bowl, same in the NBA finals. The fact of the matter is the Lightning have all the intangibles that Colorado needs to win the Stanley Cup. Yes, the Avalanche are more talented. They're faster on the ice. They look like the Harlem Globetrotters out there at times. They even have the special teams advantage. but they don't know what it's like to lose in a situation like this. Colorado, they've made it to the second round three or four years in a row, and they've lost there every single time. They haven't even made it to the Cup Final since 2001. On the other hand, we all know what Tampa Bay has been through. They were swept in the first round of the postseason in 2019, despite being probably the best regular season team in NHL history. And look what's happened since then. They've lost consecutive postseason games just once since 2019 on the way to back-to-back Cup wins. Plus, again, I mentioned it earlier. Are you going to bet against Andre Vasileski right now? I don't think I am, and I don't think I could tell anybody to either. So I think you play it safe here. You play it smart. You bet this one to go the distance, even if the Bolts are going to lose. I think it goes seven games at least. I think the Cup is going to be – there's going to be some overtime games. Every single game is going to be close battles, close in the corners, along the boards. Tampa is going to be able to slow down Colorado at some point. I think this is going to be another series where the home team has an advantage in every single game. I think we go with the Tampa Bay Lightning plus one and a half games, minus 145, level three lock.”
Colorado won the Stanley Cup Final 4 games to 2 over Tampa Bay, a 2-game series margin that exceeds Tampa Bay's +1.5 games (Wikipedia series summary sourced to official NHL results).
“BetOnline.net line going to go Detroit plus 380 to make the playoffs.”
The Detroit Tigers finished the 2022 season 66-96 and missed the playoffs for the eighth straight season; the futures bet on Detroit to make the playoffs loses (Wikipedia, 2022 Detroit Tigers season).
“The Astros plus 111 money line at the Angels.”
Houston 3-LA Angels 1 — The Houston Astros beat the LA Angels 3-1 on Opening Day; the Astros moneyline covers (ESPN game recap/scoreboard).
“We're going to roll with the Braves and Reds over eight and a half runs, minus 105.”
Atlanta 3-Cincinnati 6 — The Cincinnati Reds beat the Atlanta Braves 6-3, a combined 9 runs, which is over the posted total of 8.5 (ESPN game recap/scoreboard).
“Detroit Tigers money line minus 118 blowout special”
DET 2, LAA 8 — Angels beat the Tigers 8-2 on Aug 17, 2021, so Detroit's moneyline busts (ESPN).
“BetOnline.ag line for this one. We're gonna roll the Rays versus Orioles over eight and a half runs, minus 105.”
TB 10, BAL 0 — Rays beat the Orioles 10-0 on Aug 17, 2021; combined 10 runs clears the Over 8.5 (ESPN).
“I've got a level three lock on the Atlanta Braves to win the NL East at plus 110. Let's lock it in now and let's ride Atlanta to another pin.”
The Atlanta Braves won the 2021 NL East with an 88-73 record, clinching the division (ESPN standings).