Sports Betting Analyst / Fill-in Host · 172-283-6 on settled picks
| League | futures | spread | moneyline | prop | parlay | total | other | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 3-7+58% | 1-0 | 13-11+4% | 12-28-29% | — | 1-4-62% | — | 30-50-9% |
| Other | 7-14+208% | 3-1 | 5-9-27% | — | 4-17-64% | 1-1 | 3-9-52% | 23-51+29% |
| NFL | 7-34-41% | 4-11-49% | 4-3+4% | — | 0-2 | 3-4-18% | — | 18-54-38% |
| CFB | 10-10-10% | 24-24-5% | 0-2 | — | — | 0-1 | — | 34-37-10% |
| NHL | 7-10-21% | 3-1 | 12-13-9% | 1-8+56% | 0-2 | 4-0 | — | 27-34+4% |
| NBA | 7-10-21% | 6-4+15% | 3-6-36% | 8-5+17% | — | 4-3+9% | 0-1 | 28-29-6% |
| CBB | 3-11-59% | 2-1 | 1-5-68% | — | 0-1 | 1-0 | — | 7-18-47% |
| WNBA | 1-1 | 3-4-18% | — | 1-2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | 5-10-36% |
“[41:07] I like them to miss probably more than that.”
5-12 — Chicago finished the 2024 regular season 5-12 and did not qualify for the playoffs (StatMuse/Pro-Football-Reference season data, corroborated by ESPN standings).
“[2:26:02] his in his first time getting called up i'm also betting him to hit home run because the prices”
Jackson Holliday went 0-for-1 with a strikeout and did not homer in the Blue Jays-Orioles game on Aug 8, 2024; the only home runs in that game were by Corey Cowser (Orioles) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays) (ESPN box score). (Jackson Holliday: 0 HR)
“[2:27:36] Otherwise, Ken, we have identified three legs for a Moneyline Parlay [2:27:40] for preseason games. [2:27:41] One of these games starts in 45 minutes. [2:27:43] It is the New England Patriots. [2:27:44] I think the Patriots might be the leg that we like the most, [2:27:46] and we would like to pair them potentially in whatever combination [2:27:49] people would like with the Tennessee Titans and the Dallas Cowboys. [2:27:52] correct yeah and for uh you know we did this exercise with the home runs like oh like what [2:27:58] do you what are you playing for because you're taking these bets and pairing them with other [2:28:01] stuff this three leg money line parlay like this is going with like baseball awards that i like [2:28:05] or you know the thunder to win the nba title like this kind of stuff like this is the uh this is the [2:28:11] boost for that for this week in the preseason these three teams to win”
NE 17-3 CAR; TEN 17-13 SF; LAR 13-12 DAL — Patriots beat Panthers 17-3 (win) and Titans beat 49ers 17-13 (win), but the Rams beat the Cowboys 13-12 on a last-second touchdown (loss), so the three-leg preseason moneyline parlay busts.
“[2:28:16] Broncos, Saints, Dolphins, Packers, Raiders, Jaguars, second half against the Chiefs.”
16-14 — The Saints beat the Cardinals 16-14 on a last-second field goal, so the New Orleans moneyline pick wins (ESPN game recap).
“[14:43] my machine uh austin riley of the braves braves lost 10 nothing to milwaukee uh i kind of like [14:50] stacking them to hit home runs off freddie peralta at home tonight”
Austin Riley went 2-for-3 with a home run and 3 RBI as the Braves lost to the Brewers 8-5 (ESPN box score). (Austin Riley: 2-for-3, HR, 3 RBI)
“[14:58] vinnie pascantino of the royals similar setup uh like him to hit a home run”
Vinnie Pasquantino hit a home run and drove in 2 runs as the Royals beat the Red Sox 8-4 (ESPN box score). (Vinnie Pasquantino: 1-for-4, HR, 2 RBI)
“[15:24] frame two Jackson Holliday three Gunnar Henderson just like i'm going to keep playing them holiday [15:30] homered last night gunner almost homered righty tonight playing both multiple rbi home run all”
Jackson Holliday hit a two-run home run as the Orioles beat the Blue Jays 7-3 (ESPN box score). (Jackson Holliday: HR (2-run))
“[26:36] i like miami plus two and a half we like the texas second half second half and we like the [26:44] under and the eagles ravens game on friday night yes”
MIA 20, ATL 13 — The Dolphins beat the Falcons 20-13 in the preseason opener, so Miami covered as a +2.5 underdog by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“[21:20] get it but i kind of get it i do kind of get it and i like seattle at a huge price maybe people”
The Los Angeles Rams won the 2024 NFC West at 10-7 on a strength-of-victory tiebreaker over the also-10-7 Seahawks, so Seattle did not win the division (ESPN). (2024 NFC West champion: Los Angeles Rams (10-7, SOV tiebreaker over Seattle))
“[17:28] So two home runs that I'm betting that are not going to be in the parlay. [17:32] I'm betting Otani again tonight against Christopher Sanchez”
PHI 6, LAD 2 — Shohei Ohtani went 0-for-4 with no home run as Philadelphia beat the Dodgers 6-2 (ESPN box score). (Shohei Ohtani: 0-for-4, 0 HR)
“[17:32] I'm betting Otani again tonight against Christopher Sanchez, and I'm definitely betting Brent Rooker batting cleanup at home against Calamity Cannon.”
CHW 5, OAK 1 — Brent Rooker went 2-for-4 with no home run as the White Sox beat Oakland 5-1; only Benintendi (CHW) and Gelof (OAK) homered (ESPN box score). (Brent Rooker: 2-for-4, 0 HR)
“[17:55] Corey Seager betting him to hit a home run again.”
HOU 4, TEX 2 — Corey Seager hit a two-run homer off Framber Valdez in the 9th inning, breaking up Valdez's no-hit bid, in Houston's 4-2 win over Texas (ESPN). (Corey Seager: 1 HR (2-run, 9th inning))
“[8:07] uh lefty and Ketel Marte has been absolutely mashing the past couple weeks and hits lefties [8:13] really really well and we are going to bet Ketel Marte to do a lot of things in this game but hit a [8:17] home run would be the one that everybody knows”
ARI 5, WAS 4 — Ketel Marte went 1-for-4 with no home runs as Arizona beat Washington 5-4 (ESPN box score). (Ketel Marte: 4 AB, 1 H, 0 HR)
“[2:37:28] on the betql network okay uh so who's your guy i'll go with Elly De La Cruz which is kind of [2:37:37] obvious like home against a right terrible pitcher seems like a pretty great combination”
CHI 13, CIN 4 — Elly De La Cruz went 1-for-4 with a double and no home runs as the Cubs beat the Reds 13-4 (ESPN box score). (Elly De La Cruz: 4 AB, 1 H, 0 HR)
“[2:31:38] I really think I want to pick Soto. [2:31:40] I think I don't want to overthink it. [2:31:42] I can't there. I'm like between [2:31:43] I love him today. Yeah, I think I'm [2:31:45] going to pick Soto.”
Juan Soto went 1-for-4 with no home run against the Phillies on July 30. (Juan Soto: 0 HR (1-for-4))
“[2:33:32] other home run bets for me tonight so again this is like small amount of money uh i went back and [2:33:37] forth did i want to play with parsons defensive player of the year or Josh Giddey most improved [2:33:41] player we'll play Josh Giddey most improved play price is bigger it's a little more fun [2:33:46] i'm also might just spray a little nfl mvp the next couple days too just to get a little bit [2:33:50] more on some of these guys because i don't think there are very many who can win uh so 12 tonight [2:33:55] small parlays each individually with Josh Giddey to win nba most approved player try to build up [2:34:00] that pot a little bit uh for the orioles three players of the 12 uh anthony santander ryan o'hearn [2:34:06] jordan westberg uh all with really good splits versus righty and all pitting the ball pretty [2:34:11] hard right now uh devers who jeremy's on Seiya Suzuki again wit who i wish we had had yesterday [2:34:19] who had a grand slam otani tonight who we didn't have yesterday soto who's in the parlay seager [2:34:25] who we bet yesterday he had a double we didn't hit a home run vlad who had two yesterday uh brett [2:34:30] rooker for the a's against a lefty and james wood against a righty who does not hit a lot of home”
Dyson Daniels won the 2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player award, not Josh Giddey, so the parlay lost regardless of its home-run leg. (2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player: Dyson Daniels)
“[2:33:50] more on some of these guys because i don't think there are very many who can win uh so 12 tonight [2:33:55] small parlays each individually with Josh Giddey to win nba most approved player try to build up [2:34:00] that pot a little bit uh for the orioles three players of the 12 uh anthony santander ryan o'hearn”
Dyson Daniels won the 2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player award, not Josh Giddey, so the parlay lost regardless of its home-run leg. (2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player: Dyson Daniels)
“[2:33:55] small parlays each individually with Josh Giddey to win nba most approved player try to build up [2:34:00] that pot a little bit uh for the orioles three players of the 12 uh anthony santander ryan o'hearn [2:34:06] jordan westberg uh all with really good splits versus righty and all pitting the ball pretty”
Dyson Daniels won the 2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player award, not Josh Giddey, so the parlay lost regardless of its home-run leg. (2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player: Dyson Daniels)
“[2:33:50] more on some of these guys because i don't think there are very many who can win uh so 12 tonight [2:33:55] small parlays each individually with Josh Giddey to win nba most approved player try to build up [2:34:00] that pot a little bit uh for the orioles three players of the 12 uh anthony santander ryan o'hearn [2:34:06] jordan westberg uh all with really good splits versus righty and all pitting the ball pretty [2:34:11] hard right now uh devers who jeremy's on Seiya Suzuki again wit who i wish we had had yesterday”
Rafael Devers homered against the Mariners on July 30, but Dyson Daniels won the 2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player award, not Josh Giddey, so the parlay lost. (Rafael Devers: 1 HR; 2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player: Dyson Daniels)
“[2:33:50] more on some of these guys because i don't think there are very many who can win uh so 12 tonight [2:33:55] small parlays each individually with Josh Giddey to win nba most approved player try to build up [2:34:00] that pot a little bit uh for the orioles three players of the 12 uh anthony santander ryan o'hearn [2:34:06] jordan westberg uh all with really good splits versus righty and all pitting the ball pretty [2:34:11] hard right now uh devers who jeremy's on Seiya Suzuki again wit who i wish we had had yesterday”
Dyson Daniels won the 2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player award, not Josh Giddey, so the parlay lost regardless of its home-run leg. (2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player: Dyson Daniels)
“[2:33:50] more on some of these guys because i don't think there are very many who can win uh so 12 tonight [2:33:55] small parlays each individually with Josh Giddey to win nba most approved player try to build up [2:34:00] that pot a little bit uh for the orioles three players of the 12 uh anthony santander ryan o'hearn [2:34:06] jordan westberg uh all with really good splits versus righty and all pitting the ball pretty [2:34:11] hard right now uh devers who jeremy's on Seiya Suzuki again wit who i wish we had had yesterday”
Dyson Daniels won the 2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player award, not Josh Giddey, so the parlay lost regardless of its home-run leg. (2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player: Dyson Daniels)
“[2:33:50] more on some of these guys because i don't think there are very many who can win uh so 12 tonight [2:33:55] small parlays each individually with Josh Giddey to win nba most approved player try to build up [2:34:00] that pot a little bit uh for the orioles three players of the 12 uh anthony santander ryan o'hearn [2:34:06] jordan westberg uh all with really good splits versus righty and all pitting the ball pretty [2:34:11] hard right now uh devers who jeremy's on Seiya Suzuki again wit who i wish we had had yesterday [2:34:19] who had a grand slam otani tonight who we didn't have yesterday”
Dyson Daniels won the 2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player award, not Josh Giddey, so the parlay lost regardless of its home-run leg. (2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player: Dyson Daniels)
“[2:33:50] more on some of these guys because i don't think there are very many who can win uh so 12 tonight [2:33:55] small parlays each individually with Josh Giddey to win nba most approved player try to build up [2:34:00] that pot a little bit uh for the orioles three players of the 12 uh anthony santander ryan o'hearn [2:34:06] jordan westberg uh all with really good splits versus righty and all pitting the ball pretty [2:34:11] hard right now uh devers who jeremy's on Seiya Suzuki again wit who i wish we had had yesterday [2:34:19] who had a grand slam otani tonight who we didn't have yesterday soto who's in the parlay seager”
Juan Soto did not homer against the Phillies on July 30, and Dyson Daniels won the 2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player award, not Josh Giddey, so the parlay lost. (Juan Soto: 0 HR; 2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player: Dyson Daniels)
“[2:33:50] more on some of these guys because i don't think there are very many who can win uh so 12 tonight [2:33:55] small parlays each individually with Josh Giddey to win nba most approved player try to build up [2:34:00] that pot a little bit uh for the orioles three players of the 12 uh anthony santander ryan o'hearn [2:34:06] jordan westberg uh all with really good splits versus righty and all pitting the ball pretty [2:34:11] hard right now uh devers who jeremy's on Seiya Suzuki again wit who i wish we had had yesterday [2:34:19] who had a grand slam otani tonight who we didn't have yesterday soto who's in the parlay seager”
Dyson Daniels won the 2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player award, not Josh Giddey, so the parlay lost regardless of its home-run leg. (2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player: Dyson Daniels)
“[2:33:50] more on some of these guys because i don't think there are very many who can win uh so 12 tonight [2:33:55] small parlays each individually with Josh Giddey to win nba most approved player try to build up [2:34:00] that pot a little bit uh for the orioles three players of the 12 uh anthony santander ryan o'hearn [2:34:06] jordan westberg uh all with really good splits versus righty and all pitting the ball pretty [2:34:11] hard right now uh devers who jeremy's on Seiya Suzuki again wit who i wish we had had yesterday [2:34:19] who had a grand slam otani tonight who we didn't have yesterday soto who's in the parlay seager [2:34:25] who we bet yesterday he had a double we didn't hit a home run vlad who had two yesterday”
Dyson Daniels won the 2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player award, not Josh Giddey, so the parlay lost regardless of its home-run leg. (2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player: Dyson Daniels)
“[2:33:50] more on some of these guys because i don't think there are very many who can win uh so 12 tonight [2:33:55] small parlays each individually with Josh Giddey to win nba most approved player try to build up [2:34:00] that pot a little bit uh for the orioles three players of the 12 uh anthony santander ryan o'hearn [2:34:06] jordan westberg uh all with really good splits versus righty and all pitting the ball pretty [2:34:11] hard right now uh devers who jeremy's on Seiya Suzuki again wit who i wish we had had yesterday [2:34:19] who had a grand slam otani tonight who we didn't have yesterday soto who's in the parlay seager [2:34:25] who we bet yesterday he had a double we didn't hit a home run vlad who had two yesterday uh brett [2:34:30] rooker for the a's against a lefty”
Dyson Daniels won the 2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player award, not Josh Giddey, so the parlay lost regardless of its home-run leg. (2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player: Dyson Daniels)
“[2:33:50] more on some of these guys because i don't think there are very many who can win uh so 12 tonight [2:33:55] small parlays each individually with Josh Giddey to win nba most approved player try to build up [2:34:00] that pot a little bit uh for the orioles three players of the 12 uh anthony santander ryan o'hearn [2:34:06] jordan westberg uh all with really good splits versus righty and all pitting the ball pretty [2:34:11] hard right now uh devers who jeremy's on Seiya Suzuki again wit who i wish we had had yesterday [2:34:19] who had a grand slam otani tonight who we didn't have yesterday soto who's in the parlay seager [2:34:25] who we bet yesterday he had a double we didn't hit a home run vlad who had two yesterday uh brett [2:34:30] rooker for the a's against a lefty and james wood against a righty who does not hit a lot of home”
Dyson Daniels won the 2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player award, not Josh Giddey, so the parlay lost regardless of its home-run leg. (2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player: Dyson Daniels)
“[2:40:12] brandon marsh plus 6 30 against louise in a home game against louise heel with high scoring [2:40:18] conditions uh marsh hard hit rate really really good recently better against righties this is home [2:40:24] game this is all like really good and the price is great uh my entrant will be brandon marsh”
Brandon Marsh hit a home run against the Yankees, going 2-for-4 with 2 RBI. (Brandon Marsh: 1 HR (4 AB, 2 H, 2 RBI))
“[2:42:47] let's do an nba mvp one let's wait 10 months to cash these bets uh i'll play with sga to win most [2:42:53] valuable player so marsh harper devers Seiya Suzuki seager and katelle martay uh each one individually [2:43:00] for a couple bucks with sga to win mvp next year”
Brandon Marsh homered on July 29 and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won the 2024-25 NBA MVP, so both parlay legs won. (Brandon Marsh: 1 HR; 2024-25 NBA MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
“[2:42:47] let's do an nba mvp one let's wait 10 months to cash these bets uh i'll play with sga to win most [2:42:53] valuable player so marsh harper devers Seiya Suzuki seager and katelle martay uh each one individually [2:43:00] for a couple bucks with sga to win mvp next year”
Bryce Harper went 0-for-4 with no home run against the Yankees, so the parlay lost despite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander winning MVP. (Bryce Harper: 0 HR (0-for-4); 2024-25 NBA MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
“[2:42:47] let's do an nba mvp one let's wait 10 months to cash these bets uh i'll play with sga to win most [2:42:53] valuable player so marsh harper devers Seiya Suzuki seager and katelle martay uh each one individually [2:43:00] for a couple bucks with sga to win mvp next year”
Rafael Devers went 1-for-3 with no home run against the Red Sox on July 29, so the parlay lost despite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander winning MVP. (Rafael Devers: 0 HR (1-for-3); 2024-25 NBA MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
“[2:42:47] let's do an nba mvp one let's wait 10 months to cash these bets uh i'll play with sga to win most [2:42:53] valuable player so marsh harper devers Seiya Suzuki seager and katelle martay uh each one individually [2:43:00] for a couple bucks with sga to win mvp next year”
Seiya Suzuki went 0-for-4 with no home run against the Reds, so the parlay lost despite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander winning MVP. (Seiya Suzuki: 0 HR (0-for-4); 2024-25 NBA MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
“[2:42:47] let's do an nba mvp one let's wait 10 months to cash these bets uh i'll play with sga to win most [2:42:53] valuable player so marsh harper devers Seiya Suzuki seager and katelle martay uh each one individually [2:43:00] for a couple bucks with sga to win mvp next year”
Corey Seager doubled but did not homer against the Cardinals on July 29, so the parlay lost despite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander winning MVP. (Corey Seager: 0 HR (1-for-4, double); 2024-25 NBA MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
“[2:42:47] let's do an nba mvp one let's wait 10 months to cash these bets uh i'll play with sga to win most [2:42:53] valuable player so marsh harper devers Seiya Suzuki seager and katelle martay uh each one individually [2:43:00] for a couple bucks with sga to win mvp next year”
Ketel Marte hit a two-run home run in the 9th against Washington, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won the 2024-25 NBA MVP, so both parlay legs won. (Ketel Marte: 1 HR (2-run, 9th inning); 2024-25 NBA MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)
“the bet that would be worth making at the start of the year would be two up because it would be the price that would be the most likely to change in the first four to five weeks of the season”
Josh Allen won the 2024 AP NFL Most Valuable Player award; Tua Tagovailoa did not win (Wikipedia). (NFL MVP: Josh Allen)
“Houston's win total sitting right now at 42.5, and it's a roster that is absolutely loaded with good young players, whether it's Shepard, Cam Whitmore, who's being like shut down in summer league because he's been too good. Can't the second year player out of Villanova going to be held out of the rest of summer league. So Shepard and Whitmore, along with Fred Van Vliet, Dylan Brooks, Alfred Schengen, Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, Amen Thompson, all viable players in an NBA rotation. Almost like too much of a good thing. 42 and a half the win total, Ken, here for your Houston Rockets. yeah i think you have to start with uh crazily enough despite all the things going on in summer league you have to start with shangun's recovery and and is he he's you tell me he's 100 for opening night no matter what uh i like the over and i don't this team has a huge problem in that they have like too many players to a certain extent but it's i do think we a role was filled last year and i know like the winning streak and some of it happened without shangun and they closed of the year super hot i don't know i understand all that stuff shengun's the a player like he plugs into that everything flows from that that's like how it has to be and if it's not that and if it's like well he you know he's still he's gonna suffer another injury or he's gonna aggravate an injury or whatever uh then i love the under look it all depends on plugging him into that spot and everything flows from that because once you do that everything makes a lot more sense but if it's like last going into last year one of the reasons why shengun was such an appealing most improved player candidate last year and he wasn't the only one on the team is that this was a team where we didn't know who the a guy was it could have still been jalen green of all people who i think almost definitely is not the a guy but it could have been him um you know they have second year players that are interesting this year like whitmore is interesting like they've a lot of interesting players but the a guy is shangun for me and i think the team would agree the a guy is shangun and you can have as many interesting pieces around him as you want like he's got to plug into that lead spot and if he plays at a level he did pre-injury then they are really interesting they're actually the team that uh let's see are they the most they definitely okay so basically their net rating versus how many games they actually won they only uh they won 41 games last year they were 500 team but they actually played like a 46 win team in terms of their net rating so if you're just kind of looking for like well what is the quality of the team maybe not necessarily how the results went remember shangun missed a bunch of the games at the end of the season then they're kind of better than this number already before we talk about adding shepherd and his 20 minutes a game and whitmore maybe you know playing more of a role in the rotation so it's if you tell me shen like and there hasn't been a ton of reporting about shengun recently my understanding is that it's going to be all good and it was like more of a precautionary thing even at the end of the regular season but just like i want to see it and i want to know and i want the reporting from the camp and everything that's locked in i actually do like the over”
Houston finished the 2024-25 regular season 52-30, above the 42.5-win line (ESPN standings). (Houston Rockets 52-30)
“[1:47:24] 44.5, Ken, for the Lakers. [1:47:27] Yeah, I really like the under.”
The Lakers finished the 2024-25 regular season 50-32, above the 44.5-win line (ESPN standings). (Los Angeles Lakers 50-32)
“already in two places uh thing number two to be excited about is mobley's improvement when we did most improved player i said that he would probably be my favorite bet and the player i'd like the most because he has like the world of potential but he only averaged like 15 16 points a game last season so when he when they score more and run more and he scores 23 a game and makes the all-star team it's an easy guy to consider he doesn't have to be the winner but he's gonna be in the mix for that discussion and it almost is going to happen easily like it doesn't take a lot for him to be in the discussion for most improved players so there are almost other bets with the calves that i think are interesting more than just the straight like hey minus 120 they win 47 or more again there were other interesting things going on with them and we can see almost how like how does the bench kind of evolve do they end up with a sixth man candidate if they're going to win a lot of games then six man's in play for them too milwaukee won't have a guy boston won't have a guy nicks maybe have divinchenzo philly doesn't have a guy that'll probably win they might be one of the only teams at the top of the east that that we'll kind of see how the bench shakes out with them you know who does it end up being karis lavert was their sixth man candidate last year so they're There are other interesting things going on with Cleveland, but I don't see a big step backwards here. If anything, I see the same or improved. You just have to figure out which of those you think it's going to be. Mobley 11 to 1, close to being the co-favorite in the most improved market, along with Victor Wimbanyama, who we've talked about this week on the show, probably can't win.”
Dyson Daniels of the Atlanta Hawks won the 2024-25 NBA Most Improved Player award, not Evan Mobley (Wikipedia). (NBA Most Improved Player: Dyson Daniels)
“Pacers win total. Go to the Eastern Conference Final last year. 46.5 now. Probably a little fortunate that basically all the good players on Milwaukee were hurt in the first round. And all the Knicks got hurt, including Brunson in Game 7. but still made it to the Eastern Conference Final. Also, Rick Carlisle had a full diaper after every game against the Knicks complaining about the officiating. The Pacers' big offseason move, extending Pascal Siakam, who thanked the Toronto Raptors at his press conference, which I found to be very funny. Benedict Matherin will be back for Indiana after getting hurt last season. Ken, Pacers, 46-1⁄2. Thoughts on Rick Carlisle, Tyrese Halliburton, and Indiana? A ton of upside, but I just think the number's right. I think the number is 47.5 in a few places, too, just for reference. So that's the range we're talking about. I just agree with that. I think Halliburton's a legit kind of bottom-end All-NBA type player, obviously an all-star. So he's kind of locked in as your A guy. You have a win total like that. You better have an A guy that's going to play a lot that you like that. Now, obviously, he had an injury last year that cost him some games. Unclear, and got hurt the year before, too. unclear if that's going to be the pattern where it's hey he's awesome but it's 55 games like that's what you get in which case you know you you need a lot from other players if that's going to be the case but we it's it's early to kind of make that judgment and just stamp him with that but a guy locked in that's pretty good siakam in the regular season um you know i think like a a fine bc level second option player the exciting thing is matherin and nemhardt like any improvement there gets you in a discussion for 50 wins so you if you buy the optimism about those young players taking a step forward i i don't mind and especially an over i mean get the extra win right bet at mgm bet the over 46 and a half and get the extra win out of it at least i i don't mind like an optimistic over for them but just pecking order of the eastern conference you know you're gonna have to make some tough choices here a little bit like do you all right like you put you know put together your seeds however you have your seeds you kind of want to stagger wins that way kind of going down from let's say like high 50s to something like 41 till you get to the 8, 9, 10s. Okay, like if you have the Pacers sixth, which is kind of how they're rated right now, and they're basically the same win total as Cleveland and Orlando for the five, that sounds right to me. Like that sounds about right for them. And, you know, maybe it's a little over more, you know, what's more likely 47 or 46 or 47 or 45 or 48 or 45, maybe a little bit more to the high. end and there's a little ceiling with them and Matherin and Emhart and stuff but I kind of think they're just rated they're rated properly like the star team's kind of got some pieces that are interesting and they're rated in the high 40s I think that's fun I think if I had to bet Indiana I think I'd actually bet over 46 and a half um yeah if like the guys you mentioned are able yeah like I I don't like Halliburton ceiling is to be one of the best players in the league and that's a guy I think you want to bet on that's a guy I think you want to bet on so only over for me”
Indiana finished the 2024-25 regular season 50-32, above the 46.5-win line (ESPN standings). (Indiana Pacers 50-32)
“in the eastern conference west tomorrow raptors 30 and a half um not nothing really doing this offseason um signed emmanuel quickly like a huge extension barnes got his deal already uh so it's like quickly and barnes and rj barrett uh good luck um i i kind of think this is going to be a tanky team i think that's kind of like masai's goal here he can't like look at this team it's like a serious contender um i love scotty barnes and like i'm a knicks fan so like i like quickly and rj barrett um i would never bet an over on this team you agree disagree where are you at with the raptors yeah this is probably my third favorite win total in the conference so i like the knicks under the most um i like the calves over but i might just play calves and a bunch of award stuff that i talked about already and then i i like the under here so we landed on the same thing and it it again it kind of like what the numbers said at right if they're going over like if they're going over they're going for the plan that's very unreasonable to me with this collection of players like very unreasonable i'm also not totally sure the coach is good but we figure that out as the season goes along i barnes is your a-level guy how many games can you win maybe a lot we don't totally know yet like a year three player and he's not surrounded by a ton of things that i like it's just tough like i you know could detroit pass them this year sure uh chicago if they don't trade people can be ahead of them lamello play charlotte's ahead but i would have to hear this is the conversation we had earlier it's just like yeah over on them kind of means a little more than over on them like not a lot of teams win 32 33 i i actually like the under like a pretty good i like the knicks under more but this was one that kind of stood out to me as just these these bottom middle teams”
Toronto finished the 2024-25 regular season 30-52, below the 30.5-win line (ESPN standings). (Toronto Raptors 30-52)
“the market for the game has changed at all i'm just being really slow and loading right now i got it uh so the sort of like the newsy quality oh man this market's really funny so brianna stewart missed the liberty's last game against the sky let's get the team names wrong and uh liberty won anyway but she sat out the game and seemed like an opportunity to bet the liberty now they're playing the sun in the last game before kind of this long hiatus um i think there's let me make sure there aren't any games i think there's like one game tomorrow make sure neither team is this is a really really really bad segment nope neither team play tomorrow uh so we're at the finish line what do you want we got all the receivers right everything's going great uh the sun are two point favorites on the road right now against the liberty uh second game off for brianna stewart so we'll play the sun we'll play against the team missing their star for the second consecutive game we do that in the nba all the time and have pretty good results doing it so sun minus two tonight that's the wnba but uh i will tell that because why not because i want a lot of money on spain and”
82-74 — The New York Liberty beat the Connecticut Sun 82-74 on July 16, 2024, so the road-favorite Sun did not cover -2.
“with gunner sure i think it's totally fair so yeah so for for what it's worth i'll bet i guess i'll it like a gunner wit tandem but whatever that whatever that comes out to i'll probably shop it i it's the same thing i i said uh i explained a strategy to you in the break because i think you”
Teoscar Hernandez beat Bobby Witt Jr. 14-13 in the final to win the 2024 Home Run Derby; Gunnar Henderson was eliminated in round one. (Final: Hernandez 14, Witt 13)
“i do in case people were curious uh oh i don't really want to give out any home run it's those those games have already uh have already gone too far i was going to say like i could we i was going to pivot to home run bets here in a second but it's the air we're like halfway through both games i i do i do have home run bets in both games um i have one home run i have bobby wood jr to hit a home run in the royals game i have andrew vaughn to hit a home run in the white sox game but it's i would i would probably not tell people to uh to get in and like the scoreless fifth inning to bet andrew vaughn to hit a home run in the white sox game maybe maybe that ship has sailed we'll uh we'll see but yeah you so you heard about the home runs right that we this is what we did on”
Royals 8-5 Cardinals — Bobby Witt Jr. went 2-for-4 with a sac fly and no home run as the Royals beat the Cardinals 8-5; Salvador Perez, MJ Melendez, and Kyle Isbel hit KC's home runs (ESPN box score). (Bobby Witt Jr.: 0 HR)
“i do in case people were curious uh oh i don't really want to give out any home run it's those those games have already uh have already gone too far i was going to say like i could we i was going to pivot to home run bets here in a second but it's the air we're like halfway through both games i i do i do have home run bets in both games um i have one home run i have bobby wood jr to hit a home run in the royals game i have andrew vaughn to hit a home run in the white sox game but it's i would i would probably not tell people to uh to get in and like the scoreless fifth inning to bet andrew vaughn to hit a home run in the white sox game maybe maybe that ship has sailed we'll uh we'll see but yeah you so you heard about the home runs right that we this is what we did on”
White Sox 3-1 Twins — Andrew Vaughn went 1-for-3 with a double and no home run as the White Sox beat the Twins 3-1; Luis Robert Jr. hit Chicago's only home run (ESPN box score). (Andrew Vaughn: 0 HR)
“to head over on tonight i'll go with one of my guys who do i want to go with do i want to go i'll go jake who should i between moreno and christian walker to head a home run off morton who should i pick uh moreno just hit one the other day so i would go with him he's somebody i really like in general anyway yeah i mean moreno almost won uh almost won world series mvp right was that what you bet him and jake didn't you have an nlcs mvp nlcs mvp i'd like some completely insane price yeah it's a absolutely ridiculous awesome so the parlay tonight is gabby moreno gunner right gunner's got to be listening to like the three dragons but one of them looks ridiculous it's like there's like gunner's got to be looking around being like what is what kind of list of my own right here uh gabby moreno gunner henderson ryan mcmahon and william contraris for pj right so that's our that's our four player yep four player home run parlay i kind of want to”
Gabriel Moreno recorded no home run as Diamondbacks beat Braves 7-5 (ESPN box score). (ARI 7, ATL 5; Moreno no HR)
“i didn't think i was gonna bet i didn't think i was gonna bet because i thought nothing interesting was happening and uh and the debate it's like oh the debate made you make a bet and it's like well it made everybody else make a bet and that made me make like i i'm playing back to the baseline i playing back to the the normal price that all i doing we i i thought there was a normal price we got way away from it And I going to play back to it Like I have Biden to be the Democratic nominee in pocket And when I tell you I don care at all about this I mean I would just wake me up and let me know who wins which probably how both candidates feel about it too But I just it I like I don care at all And now I like have to care Now I have to kind of pay it I have like a pretty good amount of Biden to be the Democratic nominee off this debate and because i'm just like i i think this is the thing i think this is another one of these things and so i ended up with freaking politics bets which i never have yeah i think that you know i don't want to say they made their bed and they're going to lie in it but like you've already put too much effort in promoting biden lying in earlier i think it would like after after seven eight o'clock yeah right so and see i i think that that's something that if you're going to take the last few months here to try to bring somebody else in and win an election i just think that's going to be unbelievably difficult i'm not saying biden wins by any stretch i i don't know what's going to happen in that market but uh but yeah i think he has to be the democratic uh nominee so i think the yeah so i just think the last part of this we i have a”
Kamala Harris, not Joe Biden, became the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee after clinching the party's virtual roll-call vote in early August 2024. (2024 Democratic presidential nominee: Kamala Harris)
“uh tier one players so this is i would like to bet them to hit a home run and in addition to that i'm going to bet them to hit the first home run of the game at way higher odds because the pitcher that they're facing is a really really high four seam fastball usage uh which tends to to create more home runs uh on contact than other types of pitches so you know earlier in the game you're definitely going to get that whereas some pitchers you're you're not so sure maybe uh maybe it requires a relief pitcher for this guy to hit one so it seems like earlier in the game these guys could be even more valuable first couple of bats uh there are six players to fit that description riley and ozuna for the braves against gallon uh brandon lau and a rosa reina against carlos rodan would be two uh seager against contraris and then juan soto actually in that same raise”
ATL 6, ARI 2 — Austin Riley went 1-for-4 with no home run for the Braves against Arizona (ESPN box score). (Austin Riley: 0 HR)
“uh tier one players so this is i would like to bet them to hit a home run and in addition to that i'm going to bet them to hit the first home run of the game at way higher odds because the pitcher that they're facing is a really really high four seam fastball usage uh which tends to to create more home runs uh on contact than other types of pitches so you know earlier in the game you're definitely going to get that whereas some pitchers you're you're not so sure maybe uh maybe it requires a relief pitcher for this guy to hit one so it seems like earlier in the game these guys could be even more valuable first couple of bats uh there are six players to fit that description riley and ozuna for the braves against gallon uh brandon lau and a rosa reina against carlos rodan would be two uh seager against contraris and then juan soto actually in that same raise”
ATL 6, ARI 2 — Austin Riley went 1-for-4 with no home run for the Braves against Arizona (ESPN box score). (Austin Riley: 0 HR)
“uh tier one players so this is i would like to bet them to hit a home run and in addition to that i'm going to bet them to hit the first home run of the game at way higher odds because the pitcher that they're facing is a really really high four seam fastball usage uh which tends to to create more home runs uh on contact than other types of pitches so you know earlier in the game you're definitely going to get that whereas some pitchers you're you're not so sure maybe uh maybe it requires a relief pitcher for this guy to hit one so it seems like earlier in the game these guys could be even more valuable first couple of bats uh there are six players to fit that description riley and ozuna for the braves against gallon uh brandon lau and a rosa reina against carlos rodan would be two uh seager against contraris and then juan soto actually in that same raise”
ATL 6, ARI 2 — Marcell Ozuna went 2-for-5 with no home run for the Braves against Arizona (ESPN box score). (Marcell Ozuna: 0 HR)
“uh tier one players so this is i would like to bet them to hit a home run and in addition to that i'm going to bet them to hit the first home run of the game at way higher odds because the pitcher that they're facing is a really really high four seam fastball usage uh which tends to to create more home runs uh on contact than other types of pitches so you know earlier in the game you're definitely going to get that whereas some pitchers you're you're not so sure maybe uh maybe it requires a relief pitcher for this guy to hit one so it seems like earlier in the game these guys could be even more valuable first couple of bats uh there are six players to fit that description riley and ozuna for the braves against gallon uh brandon lau and a rosa reina against carlos rodan would be two uh seager against contraris and then juan soto actually in that same raise”
ATL 6, ARI 2 — Marcell Ozuna went 2-for-5 with no home run for the Braves against Arizona (ESPN box score). (Marcell Ozuna: 0 HR)
“riley and ozuna for the braves against gallon uh brandon lau and a rosa reina against carlos rodan would be two uh seager against contraris and then juan soto actually in that same raise yankees game against uh ryan pepio so riley and ozuna a rosarena lao and lao is the one that plays for the raise right it's not low it's lao because there's like seven lows and laos there's a low on their team so yeah we reached a new lao so la uh lao a rosarena and soto in that game but third uh and then and then seager so that's to hit the first home run of the game and anytime”
TB 5, NYY 3 — Brandon Lowe went hitless with no home run for the Rays; Tampa Bay beat New York 5-3 (ESPN box score). (Brandon Lowe: 0 HR)
“riley and ozuna for the braves against gallon uh brandon lau and a rosa reina against carlos rodan would be two uh seager against contraris and then juan soto actually in that same raise yankees game against uh ryan pepio so riley and ozuna a rosarena lao and lao is the one that plays for the raise right it's not low it's lao because there's like seven lows and laos there's a low on their team so yeah we reached a new lao so la uh lao a rosarena and soto in that game but third uh and then and then seager so that's to hit the first home run of the game and anytime”
TB 5, NYY 3 — Brandon Lowe went hitless with no home run for the Rays; Tampa Bay beat New York 5-3 (ESPN box score). (Brandon Lowe: 0 HR)
“riley and ozuna for the braves against gallon uh brandon lau and a rosa reina against carlos rodan would be two uh seager against contraris and then juan soto actually in that same raise yankees game against uh ryan pepio so riley and ozuna a rosarena lao and lao is the one that plays for the raise right it's not low it's lao because there's like seven lows and laos there's a low on their team so yeah we reached a new lao so la uh lao a rosarena and soto in that game but third uh and then and then seager so that's to hit the first home run of the game and anytime”
TB 5, NYY 3 — Randy Arozarena went 1-for-3 with no home run; Tampa Bay beat New York 5-3, with the only Rays homer coming from Isaac Paredes (ESPN box score). (Randy Arozarena: 0 HR)
“riley and ozuna for the braves against gallon uh brandon lau and a rosa reina against carlos rodan would be two uh seager against contraris and then juan soto actually in that same raise yankees game against uh ryan pepio so riley and ozuna a rosarena lao and lao is the one that plays for the raise right it's not low it's lao because there's like seven lows and laos there's a low on their team so yeah we reached a new lao so la uh lao a rosarena and soto in that game but third uh and then and then seager so that's to hit the first home run of the game and anytime”
TB 5, NYY 3 — Randy Arozarena went 1-for-3 with no home run; Tampa Bay beat New York 5-3 (ESPN box score). (Randy Arozarena: 0 HR)
“rodan would be two uh seager against contraris and then juan soto actually in that same raise yankees game against uh ryan pepio so riley and ozuna a rosarena lao and lao is the one that plays for the raise right it's not low it's lao because there's like seven lows and laos there's a low on their team so yeah we reached a new lao so la uh lao a rosarena and soto in that game but third uh and then and then seager so that's to hit the first home run of the game and anytime um again if you want to put like a very tiny amount of money on this or don't and just see”
TEX 5, LAA 4 — Corey Seager went 0-for-3 with no home run; Texas beat the Angels 5-4 (ESPN box score). (Corey Seager: 0 HR)
“rodan would be two uh seager against contraris and then juan soto actually in that same raise yankees game against uh ryan pepio so riley and ozuna a rosarena lao and lao is the one that plays for the raise right it's not low it's lao because there's like seven lows and laos there's a low on their team so yeah we reached a new lao so la uh lao a rosarena and soto in that game but third uh and then and then seager so that's to hit the first home run of the game and anytime um again if you want to put like a very tiny amount of money on this or don't and just see”
TEX 5, LAA 4 — Corey Seager went 0-for-3 with no home run; Texas beat the Angels 5-4 (ESPN box score). (Corey Seager: 0 HR)
“rodan would be two uh seager against contraris and then juan soto actually in that same raise yankees game against uh ryan pepio so riley and ozuna a rosarena lao and lao is the one that plays for the raise right it's not low it's lao because there's like seven lows and laos there's a low on their team so yeah we reached a new lao so la uh lao a rosarena and soto in that game but third uh and then and then seager so that's to hit the first home run of the game and anytime um again if you want to put like a very tiny amount of money on this or don't and just see”
TB 5, NYY 3 — Juan Soto went 0-for-4 with no home run; Tampa Bay beat New York 5-3 (ESPN box score). (Juan Soto: 0 HR)
“rodan would be two uh seager against contraris and then juan soto actually in that same raise yankees game against uh ryan pepio so riley and ozuna a rosarena lao and lao is the one that plays for the raise right it's not low it's lao because there's like seven lows and laos there's a low on their team so yeah we reached a new lao so la uh lao a rosarena and soto in that game but third uh and then and then seager so that's to hit the first home run of the game and anytime um again if you want to put like a very tiny amount of money on this or don't and just see”
TB 5, NYY 3 — Juan Soto went 0-for-4 with no home run; Tampa Bay beat New York 5-3 (ESPN box score). (Juan Soto: 0 HR)
“11 more players in just anytime home run brett and doyle shows up like every day that i've done this for the rockies um and they're they're playing in cincinnati which is probably why that's the case uh so Doyle Mitch Garver Christopher Murrell Ben Rice in that same Yankees game uh I haven't checked starting lineups for a couple teams because they came out like in the last hour so forgive me if these guys aren't starting tonight you just like double check the names uh Ben Rice Jonah Heim right for Texas that's how I pronounce that Bobby Witt Jr. everybody knows him I don't know if Dom Smith is starting for Boston he pops huge uh Andrew Vaughn's batting cleanup for the White Sox he definitely counts Trea Turner is definitely batting second for the phillies he's one of these luke raley for the mariners and then mark vientos who have i've actually never heard of before and he may not be a real player so great so uh so just to recap first and anytime riley seager lau ozuna a rosarena and soto anytime and that's it doyle garver morrell ben rice jonaheim bobby witt jr dom smith Andrew Vaughn, Trea Turner, Luke Raley, Mark Vientos. There is your list for tonight.”
CIN 12, COL 6 — Brenton Doyle hit two solo home runs (4th and 8th innings) as the Reds beat the Rockies 12-6 (ESPN box score). (Brenton Doyle: 2 HR)
“11 more players in just anytime home run brett and doyle shows up like every day that i've done this for the rockies um and they're they're playing in cincinnati which is probably why that's the case uh so Doyle Mitch Garver Christopher Murrell Ben Rice in that same Yankees game uh I haven't checked starting lineups for a couple teams because they came out like in the last hour so forgive me if these guys aren't starting tonight you just like double check the names uh Ben Rice Jonah Heim right for Texas that's how I pronounce that Bobby Witt Jr. everybody knows him I don't know if Dom Smith is starting for Boston he pops huge uh Andrew Vaughn's batting cleanup for the White Sox he definitely counts Trea Turner is definitely batting second for the phillies he's one of these luke raley for the mariners and then mark vientos who have i've actually never heard of before and he may not be a real player so great so uh so just to recap first and anytime riley seager lau ozuna a rosarena and soto anytime and that's it doyle garver morrell ben rice jonaheim bobby witt jr dom smith Andrew Vaughn, Trea Turner, Luke Raley, Mark Vientos. There is your list for tonight.”
SEA 8, SD 3 — Mitch Garver went 0-for-4 with no home run; Seattle beat San Diego 8-3 (ESPN box score). (Mitch Garver: 0 HR)
“11 more players in just anytime home run brett and doyle shows up like every day that i've done this for the rockies um and they're they're playing in cincinnati which is probably why that's the case uh so Doyle Mitch Garver Christopher Murrell Ben Rice in that same Yankees game uh I haven't checked starting lineups for a couple teams because they came out like in the last hour so forgive me if these guys aren't starting tonight you just like double check the names uh Ben Rice Jonah Heim right for Texas that's how I pronounce that Bobby Witt Jr. everybody knows him I don't know if Dom Smith is starting for Boston he pops huge uh Andrew Vaughn's batting cleanup for the White Sox he definitely counts Trea Turner is definitely batting second for the phillies he's one of these luke raley for the mariners and then mark vientos who have i've actually never heard of before and he may not be a real player so great so uh so just to recap first and anytime riley seager lau ozuna a rosarena and soto anytime and that's it doyle garver morrell ben rice jonaheim bobby witt jr dom smith Andrew Vaughn, Trea Turner, Luke Raley, Mark Vientos. There is your list for tonight.”
CHC 9, BAL 2 — Christopher Morel went 1-for-4 with no home run; the Cubs beat the Orioles 9-2 (ESPN box score). (Christopher Morel: 0 HR)
“11 more players in just anytime home run brett and doyle shows up like every day that i've done this for the rockies um and they're they're playing in cincinnati which is probably why that's the case uh so Doyle Mitch Garver Christopher Murrell Ben Rice in that same Yankees game uh I haven't checked starting lineups for a couple teams because they came out like in the last hour so forgive me if these guys aren't starting tonight you just like double check the names uh Ben Rice Jonah Heim right for Texas that's how I pronounce that Bobby Witt Jr. everybody knows him I don't know if Dom Smith is starting for Boston he pops huge uh Andrew Vaughn's batting cleanup for the White Sox he definitely counts Trea Turner is definitely batting second for the phillies he's one of these luke raley for the mariners and then mark vientos who have i've actually never heard of before and he may not be a real player so great so uh so just to recap first and anytime riley seager lau ozuna a rosarena and soto anytime and that's it doyle garver morrell ben rice jonaheim bobby witt jr dom smith Andrew Vaughn, Trea Turner, Luke Raley, Mark Vientos. There is your list for tonight.”
TB 5, NYY 3 — Ben Rice homered to right in the 7th inning; Tampa Bay beat New York 5-3 (ESPN box score). (Ben Rice: 1 HR)
“11 more players in just anytime home run brett and doyle shows up like every day that i've done this for the rockies um and they're they're playing in cincinnati which is probably why that's the case uh so Doyle Mitch Garver Christopher Murrell Ben Rice in that same Yankees game uh I haven't checked starting lineups for a couple teams because they came out like in the last hour so forgive me if these guys aren't starting tonight you just like double check the names uh Ben Rice Jonah Heim right for Texas that's how I pronounce that Bobby Witt Jr. everybody knows him I don't know if Dom Smith is starting for Boston he pops huge uh Andrew Vaughn's batting cleanup for the White Sox he definitely counts Trea Turner is definitely batting second for the phillies he's one of these luke raley for the mariners and then mark vientos who have i've actually never heard of before and he may not be a real player so great so uh so just to recap first and anytime riley seager lau ozuna a rosarena and soto anytime and that's it doyle garver morrell ben rice jonaheim bobby witt jr dom smith Andrew Vaughn, Trea Turner, Luke Raley, Mark Vientos. There is your list for tonight.”
Jonah Heim did not appear in the Rangers-Angels game on July 9, 2024; Andrew Knizner started at catcher instead, so the prop has no plate appearance to grade (ESPN box score). (Jonah Heim: did not play)
“11 more players in just anytime home run brett and doyle shows up like every day that i've done this for the rockies um and they're they're playing in cincinnati which is probably why that's the case uh so Doyle Mitch Garver Christopher Murrell Ben Rice in that same Yankees game uh I haven't checked starting lineups for a couple teams because they came out like in the last hour so forgive me if these guys aren't starting tonight you just like double check the names uh Ben Rice Jonah Heim right for Texas that's how I pronounce that Bobby Witt Jr. everybody knows him I don't know if Dom Smith is starting for Boston he pops huge uh Andrew Vaughn's batting cleanup for the White Sox he definitely counts Trea Turner is definitely batting second for the phillies he's one of these luke raley for the mariners and then mark vientos who have i've actually never heard of before and he may not be a real player so great so uh so just to recap first and anytime riley seager lau ozuna a rosarena and soto anytime and that's it doyle garver morrell ben rice jonaheim bobby witt jr dom smith Andrew Vaughn, Trea Turner, Luke Raley, Mark Vientos. There is your list for tonight.”
The July 9, 2024 Royals-Cardinals game in St. Louis was postponed due to rain from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl and made up as part of a doubleheader (ESPN). (Postponed: rain)
“11 more players in just anytime home run brett and doyle shows up like every day that i've done this for the rockies um and they're they're playing in cincinnati which is probably why that's the case uh so Doyle Mitch Garver Christopher Murrell Ben Rice in that same Yankees game uh I haven't checked starting lineups for a couple teams because they came out like in the last hour so forgive me if these guys aren't starting tonight you just like double check the names uh Ben Rice Jonah Heim right for Texas that's how I pronounce that Bobby Witt Jr. everybody knows him I don't know if Dom Smith is starting for Boston he pops huge uh Andrew Vaughn's batting cleanup for the White Sox he definitely counts Trea Turner is definitely batting second for the phillies he's one of these luke raley for the mariners and then mark vientos who have i've actually never heard of before and he may not be a real player so great so uh so just to recap first and anytime riley seager lau ozuna a rosarena and soto anytime and that's it doyle garver morrell ben rice jonaheim bobby witt jr dom smith Andrew Vaughn, Trea Turner, Luke Raley, Mark Vientos. There is your list for tonight.”
BOS 12, OAK 9 — Dominic Smith hit a solo home run in the 2nd inning; Boston beat Oakland 12-9 (ESPN box score). (Dominic Smith: 1 HR)
“11 more players in just anytime home run brett and doyle shows up like every day that i've done this for the rockies um and they're they're playing in cincinnati which is probably why that's the case uh so Doyle Mitch Garver Christopher Murrell Ben Rice in that same Yankees game uh I haven't checked starting lineups for a couple teams because they came out like in the last hour so forgive me if these guys aren't starting tonight you just like double check the names uh Ben Rice Jonah Heim right for Texas that's how I pronounce that Bobby Witt Jr. everybody knows him I don't know if Dom Smith is starting for Boston he pops huge uh Andrew Vaughn's batting cleanup for the White Sox he definitely counts Trea Turner is definitely batting second for the phillies he's one of these luke raley for the mariners and then mark vientos who have i've actually never heard of before and he may not be a real player so great so uh so just to recap first and anytime riley seager lau ozuna a rosarena and soto anytime and that's it doyle garver morrell ben rice jonaheim bobby witt jr dom smith Andrew Vaughn, Trea Turner, Luke Raley, Mark Vientos. There is your list for tonight.”
The July 9, 2024 Twins-White Sox game in Chicago was postponed due to rain from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl and made up as part of a doubleheader (ESPN). (Postponed: rain)
“11 more players in just anytime home run brett and doyle shows up like every day that i've done this for the rockies um and they're they're playing in cincinnati which is probably why that's the case uh so Doyle Mitch Garver Christopher Murrell Ben Rice in that same Yankees game uh I haven't checked starting lineups for a couple teams because they came out like in the last hour so forgive me if these guys aren't starting tonight you just like double check the names uh Ben Rice Jonah Heim right for Texas that's how I pronounce that Bobby Witt Jr. everybody knows him I don't know if Dom Smith is starting for Boston he pops huge uh Andrew Vaughn's batting cleanup for the White Sox he definitely counts Trea Turner is definitely batting second for the phillies he's one of these luke raley for the mariners and then mark vientos who have i've actually never heard of before and he may not be a real player so great so uh so just to recap first and anytime riley seager lau ozuna a rosarena and soto anytime and that's it doyle garver morrell ben rice jonaheim bobby witt jr dom smith Andrew Vaughn, Trea Turner, Luke Raley, Mark Vientos. There is your list for tonight.”
PHI 10, LAD 1 — Trea Turner hit a bases-loaded (grand slam) home run in the 4th inning, driving in all four runs; Philadelphia beat Los Angeles 10-1 (ESPN box score/play-by-play). (Trea Turner: 1 HR, 4 RBI)
“11 more players in just anytime home run brett and doyle shows up like every day that i've done this for the rockies um and they're they're playing in cincinnati which is probably why that's the case uh so Doyle Mitch Garver Christopher Murrell Ben Rice in that same Yankees game uh I haven't checked starting lineups for a couple teams because they came out like in the last hour so forgive me if these guys aren't starting tonight you just like double check the names uh Ben Rice Jonah Heim right for Texas that's how I pronounce that Bobby Witt Jr. everybody knows him I don't know if Dom Smith is starting for Boston he pops huge uh Andrew Vaughn's batting cleanup for the White Sox he definitely counts Trea Turner is definitely batting second for the phillies he's one of these luke raley for the mariners and then mark vientos who have i've actually never heard of before and he may not be a real player so great so uh so just to recap first and anytime riley seager lau ozuna a rosarena and soto anytime and that's it doyle garver morrell ben rice jonaheim bobby witt jr dom smith Andrew Vaughn, Trea Turner, Luke Raley, Mark Vientos. There is your list for tonight.”
SEA 8, SD 3 — Luke Raley went 0-for-4 with no home run; Seattle beat San Diego 8-3 (ESPN box score). (Luke Raley: 0 HR)
“11 more players in just anytime home run brett and doyle shows up like every day that i've done this for the rockies um and they're they're playing in cincinnati which is probably why that's the case uh so Doyle Mitch Garver Christopher Murrell Ben Rice in that same Yankees game uh I haven't checked starting lineups for a couple teams because they came out like in the last hour so forgive me if these guys aren't starting tonight you just like double check the names uh Ben Rice Jonah Heim right for Texas that's how I pronounce that Bobby Witt Jr. everybody knows him I don't know if Dom Smith is starting for Boston he pops huge uh Andrew Vaughn's batting cleanup for the White Sox he definitely counts Trea Turner is definitely batting second for the phillies he's one of these luke raley for the mariners and then mark vientos who have i've actually never heard of before and he may not be a real player so great so uh so just to recap first and anytime riley seager lau ozuna a rosarena and soto anytime and that's it doyle garver morrell ben rice jonaheim bobby witt jr dom smith Andrew Vaughn, Trea Turner, Luke Raley, Mark Vientos. There is your list for tonight.”
NYM 7, WSH 5 — Mark Vientos went 0-for-4 with no home run; New York beat Washington 7-5 (ESPN box score). (Mark Vientos: 0 HR)
“I like, uh, I like Reese Hoskins in that game. A pretty good amount, but I just, I never even heard of Josh Fleming before. And it was going to seem like a weird setup. and then uh i i kind of like lankford to hit another home run tonight after he homered last night these are but these both didn't make the kind of the tier one type stuff but they're like the next guys and the funny thing is like yesterday there were seven names there were tier one guys three of them hit home runs and lankford was like the eighth guy who like didn't quite have the the rating and homered which was still great we're still very happy that like for an homer i was just like man really really would have been even better if he was in tier one last night um yeah we'll see we'll see how this goes so hoskins and like what i mean because who doesn't want like 75 bets those are two other guys that stand out and then that's basically it for kind of like any of the top level projected guys since we're talking homers it”
PIT 12, MIL 2 — Rhys Hoskins went 1-for-3 with no home run; the Pirates beat the Brewers 12-2 with five Pittsburgh homers (ESPN box score). (Rhys Hoskins: 0 HR)
“and then uh i i kind of like lankford to hit another home run tonight after he homered last night these are but these both didn't make the kind of the tier one type stuff but they're like the next guys and the funny thing is like yesterday there were seven names there were tier one guys three of them hit home runs and lankford was like the eighth guy who like didn't quite have the the rating and homered which was still great we're still very happy that like for an homer i was just like man really really would have been even better if he was in tier one last night um yeah we'll see we'll see how this goes so hoskins and like what i mean because who doesn't want like 75 bets those are two other guys that stand out and then that's basically it for kind of like any of the top level projected guys since we're talking homers it”
TEX 5, LAA 4 — Wyatt Langford went 0-for-3 with no home run; Texas beat the Angels 5-4 (ESPN box score). (Wyatt Langford: 0 HR)
“I started to notice with like Aaron Judge and even Gunner this year. It doesn't matter if it's lefty or righty. These guys just mash. That's it. Or the weather. Stuff like this. or the umpire, like all these ancillary noisy things. It's like, I mean, if you, if, if you're hitter driven numbers, say Gunnar Henderson tonight at the price, then it's Gunnar Henderson at the price. I'm like, I don't, I don't want a weather report. Like I'm not really interested. Like it just, that's, that's kind of how this tends to go just in the limited work that I've done and more just reading the work of others and kind of seeing what they've done. Yeah. Gunnar's my top home run today, but we'll see what you have. It's kind of interesting to look at. Yeah. Yeah. Number one on my list, but we'll get to that and talk about it later.”
CHC 9, BAL 2 — Gunnar Henderson went 1-for-4 with no home run; the Cubs beat the Orioles 9-2 (ESPN box score). (Gunnar Henderson: 0 HR)
“baseball's been very very good to me too i was really hot like a week ago uh you know me and my weather you know that making sure the barometric pressure is just right it's getting warm outside it's hot everywhere yeah so ball's flying it's awful here in baltimore so like the east coast like dc like uh the nats are playing today i love the over in the nats game at four o'clock um i had the pittsburgh over today and because it's kind of a light slate like you're looking for those spots and uh we'll see how it plays out but you know there it's been good for me so far except for this weekend. This weekend I got my teeth kicked in. So, so the, but the, go ahead. I was gonna say the cards and that's game. So not, Oh, so the total open nine, it's still nine. I've been following that series a little bit.”
6-0 — Cardinals beat Nationals 6-0 on July 8, 2024; combined 6 runs stayed under the total of 9 (ESPN box score).
“few goals in the tournament so Cody Gakpo who plays for the dutch is one of the players who's on three goals there are four players on three goals he is the only one of the four who's still playing so by rule he is the only one who can then have of the four who can have more than three goals lucky is the other three are playing no more matches so there's a four-way tie with three uh he's the only one still playing he also has one assist and there's only one other player in the tournament who we'll talk about in a second who also has one assist so right off the bat like entering this round there are sort of two players on three slash one if you want to think of it that three goals and one assist and Gakpo is the only one who can advance his profile he's the only one who can have another assist which would break the tie or another goal which would put him ahead for people who don haven watched the matches in the netherlands last match uh he was awarded a goal on their last i think their last goal of the match i think um and who they play turkey right that was the game two days ago was the afternoon game and they had the kind of this furious comeback and it looked like he had scored the goal that was going to give him the outright lead this is important to this show because i talked about like he was the first click when the bracket was announced that i liked to win this award he was like 18 to 1 and now he's like an even money favorite and he was awarded the goal and then they later went back and said no it's an own goal on the other team and so he lost he lost the goal so now we're still in a tie we're still in in purgatory here with trying to get cody gack but he's he's won so he has three goals and an assist there is a player for the nation of georgia”
UEFA shared the Euro 2024 Golden Boot among six players with 3 goals each, including Cody Gakpo of the Netherlands (ESPN). (Cody Gakpo: 3 goals, joint Golden Boot winner)
“to even like clean up something that you said there if the tournament ends and no one scores any more goals like let's say we have nil nil both semi-finals and they go to penalty kicks nil nil in the final and it goes to penalty kicks no goals were scored george from georgia maybe will just start calling him that he wins when that happens he wins he has played the fewest minutes because the dutch will have played like another match gackpo i think has already passed him in minutes played at this point like i i'm not sure people understand that and by the way he's he's wildly priced differently at all kinds of sports books right now some places nine to one some places like where i bet him yesterday 30 to one some places 24 to one because i think there's this understanding that like well Gakpo just needs to get an assist and he's still playing and he's such a prolific goal scorer he's still going to score goals so I sort of you know cart before the horse like I've kind of told you what I bet already and when we come back from the break just like there are some permutations here that I think are really interesting if you if you think this is going to get crazy or what happens if you think it's not going to get crazy and is like the status quo right now just what it's going to be when the tournament ends I think it's really interesting I think all this stuff is interesting. Just looking at, I didn't realize, you know, when you think about the tiebreakers and everything goes, and I'm assuming penalty kicks do not count as far as goals. Do not count. But goals in extra time, like that actually count on the scoreboard, they will obviously count. But penalty kicks do not count. Like penalty shootout goals. Yeah, we're going to continue this, talk some more about this. We'll get into NBA Summer League, all that and more. It's You Better You Bet. Jeremy Kahn filling in for Nick Kossas alongside Ken Barkley. It's all brought to you by BetMGM right here on the BetQL Network. The greatest fear in home repair is the unknown. But Ranch Roofing cuts through the confusion with a dedicated on-site project manager and dedicated crews that treat your home like it's their own. We are proud to serve families throughout Boston and Metro West with transparent pricing and no obligation estimates. So you can stop worrying about who's on your roof and get back to what matters under it. Visit RanchRoofing.com for a free estimate. Ranch Roofing, it's not just a roof. It's the people under it. We'll be right back with You Better You Bet, presented by BetMGM. On the BetQL Network. Let's get back to You Better You Bet, presented by BetMGM. On the BetQL Network. All right, welcome back. You Better You Bet. Jeremy Convillant for Nick Casas alongside Ken Barkley. We're talking some Euro, Copa, Golden Boot, all this and more. I'm learning so much about soccer. And I was telling Ken, you know, about fireworks and everything with you being off that in my neighborhood, they be celebrating July 8th today where I sure fireworks will be going off like they gone off the past few nights But what a celebration anyway Ken getting to soccer and as some of the things we were talking about and how weird this can get where are you kind of leaning here do you have a couple different shares um so i i think it's important to just be like however you think these next three there's only three matches left in the tournament however you think they're gonna go is probably gonna determine whether you like to bet in this market or not and you know you need to know what the prices are and you know even even if you liked england or something maybe you don't like the price on their players just but it is going to lead you toward because you you want the matches like if you like england against the dutch and they play on wednesday then england gets to play another match after that they get to play the final two more matches that might be enough time for for someone to score some goals for someone to do something um so the way i'd like to frame this so i have a pretty strong opinion uh based on the tiebreakers and based on who is ahead that i think the story of this tournament and kind of the tenor of this tournament has been brutal low scoring games for the two most likely countries i think to win or two of the three most likely countries to win so spain is the most likely country and they actually have a pretty prolific offense but i think it's more important that the games that France plays, all of them, and the games that England plays, all of them, are dreadful and feature no goals. And guess what? The semifinals feature a game involving France and then a game involving England. And it's pretty likely that one of them, at least, or both, are going to win. Which means, guess what? The final, which is always particularly nervy and low scoring in general, is going to feature France or England. That should be another brutal match. Now, for England, it's more about strategy. They like to play ultra-conservative, despite the fact they have a very talented team. France, they've kind of tried to score. It just hasn't really gone so well, and the defense is incredible, and they do not allow a lot of goals. So every match the rest of the tournament, I think has a pretty reasonable chance of being very low score, like 0-0, 1-0. Like, that's it. Like, that's all you're going to get in these matches. I think we're very likely to have at least one penalty shootout at nil-nil probably the rest of the tournament. So if you think that, if you agree with me, you don't have to agree with me. Like, the Dutch have scored goals. Spain has scored against basically everybody. Like, you don't have to agree with me. But if you think that's what it's going to be, there's a possibility that no one scores any goals the rest of the tournament. Or no one of merit, like, who can contend for the golden boot especially, scores any more goals. and if no one scores any goals then george m from georgia whose name i will i should have looked it up during the break and it's such a bad job by me but now it's kind of funnier that i don't know what it is uh he would win on the tiebreakers he would win this award if no one does anything he wins so the way i would frame this jeremy so i have bet him at because mostly because the prices are all out of whack all over the place like how can a guy be seven in one place and 30 in another and how could anybody think that's right like kind of shows you that maybe there's like not even disagreement just like a lack of understanding about the likelihood of these things where and look like he may lose like literally Cody Gakpo gets an assist next game like i lose i lose the bet happens in the next game i lose he scores a goal i lose a lot of other things i lose this is not some lock but if nothing else happens and the clock's ticking here he wins like whether whether you think that's cool or not and you think a better player should win nobody cares so uh cody gacpo right now and george have the same number of goals and the same number of assists cody gacpo has played one fewer minute in the tournament so basically here's how i'm going to frame this i win my let's call it i think on the screen it's 20 to 1 at mgm i'm sure that's different at other mgms whatever let's say 20 to 1 you bet this guy 20 to 1 for georgia here are the ways you lose because there are a few like you you sort of think of it you win comma unless you win how many outs do we have yeah you win unless unless is like kind of a long list but here's you win unless so if you make this bet you're like i want to tell ken this sounds like a lot of fun i don't know if it's going to win or not but it sounds pretty cool all right great uh here's what you're rooting against here's what you need to not happen so it's here's it's almost like betting an under in a baseball game right like well what do you want to happen uh nothing i'd actually like nothing to happen would actually be here's a bunch of ground outs here's the worst game you've ever seen i'm actually rooting for nothing to happen um if you bet this player from georgia to win to win golden boot uh here's what you need to happen uh you think and it's i'll do i'll try to do them in order of the most likely to happen like the thing you got to dodge the most uh you need Cody Gakpo in the semi-final to not record a goal or an assist and ideally you would like him to be eliminated because otherwise you have to do that again in the final uh you need him to brick like to put up a zero now you might be like well he's he's been awesome in the tournament like he's almost scored in every match like why would we do that because they're playing england and these matches are terrible this is like this is the whole point is that like england and france own the two semis in that they're going to be played at that style like this is not three three this is not what england wants to do it sure as hell isn't what france wants to do either So, like, that's what it's going to be. Okay, so you need to dodge a Gakpo contribution, goal or an assist. So you win, unless Cody Gakpo gets a goal or an assist. Because if Gakpo plays two more minutes, which, like, I guess you have to dodge him getting hurt in the first minute of the semifinal. He will pass George in the number of minutes played, and then George wins the tiebreaker, and he's ahead at that point. So got to dodge Gakpo. Can't have a goal or an assist. Ideally, he's eliminated from the tournament by England. By the way, England's favored in the match. That's the most likely thing to happen. So if Gakpo doesn't do anything, you're like, all of a sudden, your bet looks a lot better all of a sudden if that happens. And there may not be a lot of goals in that match. The second thing you have to dodge. Yeah. Jeff Galooly. Maybe Galooly is the guy who plays for George. Maybe that's how you pronounce it. So the second thing you have to dodge, and I'll try to kind of break these up, I guess. Actually, I'll do kind of like the one that's the scariest first. Danny Olmo is a player for Spain who had a really compelling last game. Spain has a number of players who have gotten hurt or are going to be suspended for their next match. Danny Olmo is currently on two goals, so he has one behind, but has two assists. And Spain is playing France in the semifinal. so literally if he scores one more goal he will he will win all the tiebreakers uh and so and like spain obviously is favorite against france he's this is one of the reasons if you're looking at the screen why he's eight you're like why is danny ulmo eight to one be like because there's just there aren't a lot of unlesses here and he's one of the strongest unless you'd be like well you're telling me i have to like he's really good i have to dodge gacpo and him again like if you think the matches are going to be brutal yeah i don't mind dodging this stuff i think these matches are going to stink because they've all stunk france with france play compelling matches all of a sudden what is england playing a shootout all of a sudden like i don't mind trying to dodge all these things they all seem like low probability events to me that these guys are going to score goals like spain could score and it doesn't why does it be danny olmo by the way if spain scores why can't somebody else score um there are a couple other players on two with a variety of different assists so fabian ruiz uh for spain is also on two i believe he is one of the players who got hurt in the last match but important to know that he is also on two with two assists um so if he were to score again he would also be in but to me this is like there are spain players who can all do compelling things they're playing france who doesn't allow they don't concede any goals i'm I'm willing to live with the idea that if Spain scores twice or three times against France, I lose my bet. I don't think that's going to happen a whole lot. France is too good for that to happen a whole lot. It's going to happen sometimes. It's not really going to happen all the time. And if France ever wins, Spain's out. Now you dodge them. So your best case scenario here is going to be like a France-England final that's played scoreless or 1-0 and go to penalties or whatever. And that's how it works out. There are other players who are less likely to get the requisite number of goals. um but we can just mention really quick jeremy and you mentioned one of them so you're gonna look at the screen be like all right we talked about gacpo he's a big favorite i think everybody understands why um he has to do he he has assist in his arsenal as like another way to to play and he could play in two more matches so like he might he might do some stuff like he's a really compelling bet for player of the tournament for that reason um because he's been maybe the best player in the tournament so far they're playing england and they might just be out and then what happens at that point because he ain't ahead when that happens uh harry kane and jude bellingham are two english players who are both on two with no assists and so what you would need is you would need them to score twice total so you need kane to score two goals or bellingham to score two goals in the next match or the next two matches if england were to win and harry kane look he can he will take penalties for england he only has two goals in the competition but he's like a prolific goal scorer for england in his career like playing for england but again like just kind of not what this has been just kind of not what the tournament's been so you could bet him five to one he needs two or a bucket of assists which are somehow going to materialize how many goals does england score per game again like 0.5 how many has happened that doesn't seem very likely and then bellingham like has the moment of the tournament i think he could win player of the tournament of england wins but like you need him to score two england doesn't score a lot of goals England might play France in the final. Like, what's that game going to look like? So there are other even bigger long shots. But Jeremy, that's kind of, so it's kind of an unless thing. The guy from Georgia wins unless Gakpo tears his knee in the first minute. Gakpo gets a goal or an assist the rest of the tournament. Kane and Bellingham get two goals the rest of the tournament. Danny Omo and Fabian get two goal or get one more goal for Spain. And again, Spain's kind of a distributed goal scoring team. Like, there are some unlesses here. And I guess my point of all this is I'm willing to dodge all the unlesses. I'm willing to I'm going to watch the semifinals I'm going to be like yeah you know what I want to happen nothing want nothing to happen because you know what's happened in all of France and England's matches nothing nothing has happened in them no one has done anything and I'm willing to bet that we're gonna get three more matches like that see from everything you've you've just kind of laid out it just if you're going to get 20 to 1 or somewhere near that on our board George it just seems like such a a great bet to make with I know there's the outs but from everything you laid out with low scoring games it seems like you have a fair shot of hitting that and even if you don't you took a flyer on a 20 to 1 right you know it just seems like it should be less than that sure i just got a note from someone and this is important and this is a bad omission by me but i just this provides a little bit more context so and i i'm so glad i think evan is this guy's name he's listening to the segment right now he sent me this note and he's totally right and this will be like the great this will be like the perfect conclusion to this so if you were going to bet this and i should have said this at the start and it my fault and evan very smart for bringing this up uh just make sure and this will be clearly labeled like there there shouldn be a mistake about this like there are books that are going to deal this market and it's not going to be called golden boot it's going to be called but we're saying like i i need to say this because i'm saying golden boot but you might be like well i just went and bet top goal scorer so like we're in the same thing like we're not the award is called the golden boot award the golden boot award follows these tiebreakers goal leading goal scorer of the tournament is a made-up market buy a book and it will probably follow dead heat tiebreakers because it's not called the golden because it's not about who gets the trophy at the end of the tournament it's called something different so like i'll bring it up because i don't know how mgm has theirs and we quoted 20 on them i know what the tiebreakers are at the places i bet like i know what they have listed just do the little like fine print it'll be right at the top what is the market called the market that we've talked about for 40 minutes is called golden boot and by the way like nine to one ten to one which is the lowest price i think in that market i think is still good dodging the things you have to dodge because i think the play games are going to be so not all of this is valid the bet is still good at those prices there are better prices available but you gotta fish around a little bit um know what you're betting into we've been talking about the golden boot award on the show that's why we use”
UEFA shared the Euro 2024 Golden Boot among six players with 3 goals each, including Georges Mikautadze of Georgia (ESPN). (Georges Mikautadze: 3 goals, joint Golden Boot winner)
“uh i probably will not surprise anybody the euro semi-final will start when we get on the air tomorrow between france and spain uh i like under two that's the bet that i like in the game i kind of like exact score one nil france as the result um spain obviously missing a bunch of players due to suspension or injury i this has been the story of the tournament i understand the totals brutally low i like the under two i think france is going to win one nil or maybe one one we go to extra time something like that uh that's what i like don't like anything for baseball we can do”
Spain 2-1 France — Spain beat France 2-1 in the Euro 2024 semifinal, with three total goals sending the under 2 to a loss.
“Minus 110. If you wanted to do England minus one... They never score more than one and a half goals. Yeah, England minus one is minus 145. So the Slovaks, plus one and plus one and a half is minus 120. plus one and a half if you wanted to do that with Slovakia is minus 155. It seems like hashtag they know. Like the books know, everybody. Has England scored either zero or one goals in all three matches, right? England has scored zero or one goal in all three matches, correct. And I can get plus one and a half for minus 155 in their elimination match? You can. i think i think that would be my favorite bet in that match let's kind of have like a how does it lose sort of feel attached to it right no you just it's not that you make england beat you because they can win you make england like throttle you in a high scoring affair so there's a piece of news attached to this game we talked”
England and Slovakia were tied 1-1 after 90 minutes of their Euro 2024 round of 16 match (England won in extra time), so Slovakia +1.5 covered on the regulation-time line. (90 min: England 1, Slovakia 1)
“oh okay uh then that's probably just correct and uh i don't like anything um i would bet total in the game is oh what's the two and a half two and a half basically yeah like way over way over and honestly like honestly like yeah well i mean i bought my guess is a little turkey matches and i want to see what i would like to bet down a man they played a team down a man and it was 2-1 and they conceded and should have conceded more like i mean that was a crazy match i would like to bet like about austria alts goal scores austria to score three times four times what's like over four i like it i like it i like it yeah okay i actually think that's my favorite i think the over in that match is my favorite bet of the round actually uh france and the 90 against belgium is my favorite great love it i bet it okay or not of itch uh you have a uh an nba draft update”
1-0 — France beat Belgium 1-0 in regulation in their Euro 2024 round of 16 match.
“austria has turkey and we haven't done that match yet right we have not done that match yet correct i i don't like the netherlands at that price i i think the goal scorer bets are good because the reason why i like the golden boot bet at well you like another player on the team but the reason why those bets are appealing well like both to be fair gacpo and memphis to pie right but i think the the key difference here is the bracket fundamentally changed all of today and that market didn't change whatsoever and like that's a mistake because like but by you could tell by this market that that's a mistake the netherlands to advance in this match they would not be playing a match where they'd be minus 500 if the bracket so like their players became more likely to play more matches prices for golden boot didn't change that is worth a bet um that's why we like them it's not really like that i like the netherlands it's just they're the beneficiaries here and in the like to win the title market to lift the trophy the market did adjust to the bracket in these games single game markets obviously they've adjusted these are the matchups themselves golden boot didn't so i just like that's why i like them it's not like oh ken loves the netherlands or something just they were the beneficiaries and the market didn't move and it probably should have i i think i'm gonna have nothing on the netherlands romania game based on these prices yeah i think they're really likely to win so does the market yeah but like okay but then like but would you bet romania maybe at that what are they coming back what's their price to what's their price to advance uh Romania in the 90 is plus 675, factoring in extra time and penalties, plus 360. I don't even hate them in the 90. Almost 7-1. 7-1? The Dutch are going to get back, right? The 7th best team in this tournament. Yeah. Yeah. They're not very good. I love how I bet Gakpo, and now I have to be like, well, I kind of like the, you know, whatever, Romania, whatever I'm betting on. What team am I betting on?”
Cody Gakpo finished Euro 2024 with 3 goals and shared the Golden Boot with five other players. (Cody Gakpo: 3 goals, joint Golden Boot)
“oh okay uh then that's probably just correct and uh i don't like anything um i would bet total in the game is oh what's the two and a half two and a half basically yeah like way over way over and honestly like honestly like yeah well i mean i bought my guess is a little turkey matches and i want to see what i would like to bet down a man they played a team down a man and it was 2-1 and they conceded and should have conceded more like i mean that was a crazy match i would like to bet like about austria alts goal scores austria to score three times four times what's like over four i like it i like it i like it yeah okay i actually think that's my favorite i think the over in that match is my favorite bet of the round actually uh france and the 90 against belgium is my favorite great love it i bet it okay or not of itch uh you have a uh an nba draft update”
1-2 — Turkey beat Austria 2-1 in their Euro 2024 round of 16 match, producing three goals and clearing the 2.5 total.
“just the the game that i'll be the most interested in uh i do i think if i was going to bet a baseball side i would bet the cardinals in game two of the doubleheader they got played against like 25 cents after the braves won game one um so that market with uh elder and liberator are braves minus 115 120 i bet the cardinals uh that would be my favorite baseball bet start that i'll be watching by far is Luis Heal against the Mets tonight because if it's remotely as bad as it was in”
4-1 — St. Louis beat Atlanta 4-1 in game two of their June 26, 2024 doubleheader.
“ Kaelin Clark. She doesn't start defending at a high level. You know what? Maybe she's going to. I bet Angel Reese. And Kate Shyamalan. Well, I bet Angel Reese, so I hope she stops doing everything. Everything in a basketball sense. I hope she stays alive, keeps breathing.”
Caitlin Clark won the 2024 WNBA Rookie of the Year award, so the Angel Reese futures bet lost. (2024 WNBA Rookie of the Year: Caitlin Clark)
“Ken, you looking to place any bets tonight any of those winnings from the Stanley Cup final? The only game that I'm looking at where something interesting is happening is this game two with no Tatis for the Padres who walked off against the Nationals last night. Man, people have bet the Nationals like they know the score. Open dog, now a 120 road favorite with Mackenzie Gore who's been like really good. I don't know what I'm supposed to do here. I feel like I'm supposed to know what to do here. Second game, no Tatis, like can't hold it together or like crazy move and I don't get it. I don't know which one it is. I think it's... It's a no bet. I think it's... That's like the only game that has like movement that I think is interesting and it's driven by like injuries and a bunch of other stuff. So I think... I think the Padres are still like the dog nobody wants. And I think that's... I think that's the type of team that we like to play on, honestly, even though it's the second game. I think it's the Padres. All right. Padres for Ken.”
9-7 — The San Diego Padres beat the Washington Nationals 9-7 on June 25, 2024, so the Padres moneyline won.
“this is just like pure fandom i have futures going and i want to root for this team rodriguez and bennett the prices are longer than kind of the kachuk barkoff reinhardt verhage quartet um but these players have been highly productive in the postseason also so i'll bet them kind of like betting them for first goal also so rooting for florida uh the con smith has made the hedge”
Evan Rodrigues did not score in Game 7 (he assisted on Carter Verhaeghe's opening goal); Panthers won 2-1. (Evan Rodrigues: 0 goals, 1 assist)
“this is just like pure fandom i have futures going and i want to root for this team rodriguez and bennett the prices are longer than kind of the kachuk barkoff reinhardt verhage quartet um but these players have been highly productive in the postseason also so i'll bet them kind of like betting them for first goal also so rooting for florida uh the con smith has made the hedge”
Carter Verhaeghe scored the first goal of Game 7 (tipping in a Rodrigues shot), not Evan Rodrigues, so the first-goal bet lost. (First goal: Carter Verhaeghe)
“this is just like pure fandom i have futures going and i want to root for this team rodriguez and bennett the prices are longer than kind of the kachuk barkoff reinhardt verhage quartet um but these players have been highly productive in the postseason also so i'll bet them kind of like betting them for first goal also so rooting for florida uh the con smith has made the hedge”
Sam Bennett did not score in Game 7; the Panthers' second-period go-ahead goal was scored by Sam Reinhart, not Bennett. (Sam Bennett: 0 goals)
“this is just like pure fandom i have futures going and i want to root for this team rodriguez and bennett the prices are longer than kind of the kachuk barkoff reinhardt verhage quartet um but these players have been highly productive in the postseason also so i'll bet them kind of like betting them for first goal also so rooting for florida uh the con smith has made the hedge”
Carter Verhaeghe scored the first goal of Game 7, not Sam Bennett, so the first-goal bet lost. (First goal: Carter Verhaeghe)
“I picked Spain to win it all, and then I liked Italy in this match as a zigzag. And I zigged my way. You zigged and you got zagged.”
1-0 — Spain beat Italy 1-0 on an own goal, so the live Italy moneyline lost (ESPN).
“actually had added at a couple places, got on with chat before the Yankees series last weekend. Just a player, not even sure he can win. Just think it's a little interesting. David Hamilton of the Red Sox, who people might remember from Sunday Night Baseball, the Red Sox had all those steals against the Yankees. Hamilton was one of the ones really responsible for that. They had three or four steals in the game. His speed and the fact that he's now finally hitting for average, I think it's going to allow him to accumulate more, maybe a little faster than people would have thought i mean he's third in the al and gaining on everybody uh in in war people have targeted another red sox infielder is rafael however pronounced his name hard pass on that guy war projections way lower than for hamilton i don't know if hamilton can win but he's 75 to 1 so langford and hamilton as kind of like flyers and then like now you got to follow louise hill”
Luis Gil won the 2024 American League Rookie of the Year award; David Hamilton did not (MLB.com). (2024 AL Rookie of the Year: Luis Gil)
“50 bucks 50 bucks against gray i i like this i like the storm let me make sure the storm don't have any like crazy injuries or anything the storm do not have any crazy injuries and chelsea gray is going to play i think that's storm plus seven i think they might great i mean listen sold the storm are really storm are like one of the best four or five teams let's do storm money line this year well i'm definitely going to plus the points yeah we'll say selfishly like the reason why i asked about one of the recalls because i was like maybe maybe we make the bet um was it”
94-83 — Las Vegas beat Seattle 94-83, so Seattle lost by 11 and did not cover +7 (ESPN box score).
“as you some combination of uh adrenaline and stupidity and a lot of money uh anybody who followed the nba finals mvp market which we covered yesterday from the night before that was like a nice appetizer for what this was going to be which is just like blind price movement and bizarre market behavior this was on steroids last night during the game uh so the nba finals market movement was that jason tatum was being bet like somebody knew what the final tally was going to be uh except they didn't and jalen brown won actually by multiple votes and the the lesson there was like in a voting award can't totally trust the market movement for the game even if you think you know what's going to happen you don't actually have any proof no one said they're voting for tatum why did he close minus 550 we talked about all of that yesterday on the show and i even said get ready for that with con smith even during the game last night so i'll just kind of walk you through what i was thinking about as the game was going on so uh as bobrovsky is allowing more goals so when he allows the third goal what i think to myself is uh i think it is no longer possible for him to win the Conn Smythe Trophy at at three um then mcdavid has the crazy setup for four one obviously but in my mind like three is basically like it this is just like my opinion as i'm watching the game at three he is no longer going to be viewed as an outstanding performer in the series and he was behind going into the series and recency bias is going to be a big deal you know as we lead up to game seven so my first thought was like all right but broski is being priced like a very relevant part of the proceedings he is no longer relevant that should create an opportunity what like now what do i want to do and as mcdavid plays better this is i think when most people started focusing on as the game kept going and going going on this idea of trying to basically look at all the future permutations of how this can play out and trying to identify which ones would mcdavid win and which ones would he not win and maybe there being some disagreement at first on which one that would be so the you know this sort of all of this back of the notebook calculation or whatever was going on during the game last night it's really interesting it was interesting to watch other people and how they thought i was moving extremely large sums of money around i was taking cash outs from anything that moved that i had a bet with to try to get more money into mcdavid and it was just like a really i mean the the three hours went by faster than probably any three hour period of time i've had you know in years in terms of just watching the game and consuming it having florida but then also at the same time trying to manage what's going on this huge position in a ward market that's been been i've been been ending it to for 80 days”
Connor McDavid won the 2024 Conn Smythe Trophy with 16 of 17 first-place votes (ESPN). (2024 Conn Smythe Trophy winner: Connor McDavid (16/17 first-place votes))
“the last thing which you mentioned kachuk just so like people sometimes don't have twitter they don't know what's like we you know we tweet sometimes just so people understand what nick's talking about there was a moment uh when kachuk was playing very well had a goal and an assist in the third period of the game this early third period uh where his price to win con smith had drifted and we're texting and we're texting the whole time right so just want i want to add a little color here and then i wanted to talk about the the kachuk price where like bob rovsky lets up the third goal and like we're we're talking like we both think he's dead I'm saying maybe they should pull him and Kachuk starts playing well and then the conversation starts to become like is there because Barkov isn't doing anything like is there actually a way here if Florida like comes back to win or loses close and Kachuk plays well like where it could be like where it could possibly be kashuk so we had been talking about it like prior to i think like this price arriving are you having this moment where you see this and the light bulb goes off right so he he you know sort of slotted in as the second best player for florida behind barkov and likes conventional wisdom like you know how the voters kind of think with bobrovsky playing poorly that's what i mean he slots in as kind of the number two um and a guy with obviously with a lot of pedigree at a ton of points in the regular season so when he starts turning it on a little bit and the price doesn't move and we're not talking about hey like i would bet him at 20 to 1 even like i mean like he's priced like you want to go play a scratch-off ticket for a billion dollars like you're like that like it's you're in for nothing to win everything okay there's is there at that point all you're really asking is can i create a realistic path even if it's like a one in a hundred because think about the price that you're getting can i create a realistic path to him winning at this exact moment and he's 500 to one and then he's 370 to one after i bet it and like the answer to that was yes there is there is a path i actually think there is now it is extremely narrow i actually think there is still a path to him winning but he's not 370 to one anymore he's 66 to one and that doesn't sound like a big difference implied probability wise and it's not but like it is like it's i don't know if i can create a one in 66 for him maybe i can but it's close so we were texting about this last night i bet enough money that it would be really awesome if he would we could thread this needle and he would win this award and the panthers win the stanley cup so those were all the things from last night it was three thoughts that were occurring during the game the first is and this”
Connor McDavid won the 2024 Conn Smythe Trophy with 16 of 17 first-place votes; Matthew Tkachuk did not win (ESPN). (2024 Conn Smythe Trophy winner: Connor McDavid (16/17 first-place votes))
“do that too go ahead uh we did it earlier in the show so i'll just reiterate it uh i like the over in the orioles yankees game the judge injury and him not being in the lineup uh is creating a lot of movement when that when that happened when that was announced so the total has dropped a full run and that's what we do in these situations we play against that so the over in that game which is seven and a half i wish i had a stronger opinion on like the side whole props we talked about”
7-6 — Orioles beat Yankees 7-6 in 10 innings, combining for 13 runs, clearing the over 7.5 (ESPN box score).
“i think you're going to talk about which i agree on is 35 cents of movement the brewers have been bet outrageously in every game of the series against the angels and the angels have split the two games so far i believe i think this is game three and uh the brewers it's people are at again brewers moved 30 35 cents uh actually 40 in some cases so gonna play the angels at the last possible second there so over yankees orioles for sure and then probably the angels at 9 37 eastern”
2-0 — Brewers beat Angels 2-0, so the Angels moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“Ken, any baseball bets for you tonight? Yeah, I got a couple things that stand out. We're going to play against the Dodgers, now second game with no Mookie bets. They've gotten that out to 190 in a few places on the road, beat the Rockies last night. We won on the Dodgers at a really reduced price in that game. Walker Buehler kind of still trying to find it, coming back from injury. They're a huge favorite second game, no bets. The second game theory, we'll play the Rockies. and then another team that's gotten bet out a ton and they played really really well recently and I kind of get it I'll play Toronto at like a short dog price at home Red Sox have gotten bet at about 25 cents now been playing a lot better recently I've got I'm gonna play the yeah I'll bet against my team I'll play the Orioles against the Yankees I have more faith in Suarez than Nester Cortez the nasty Nester against my better judgment and I think the show hates this that I'm to do this. I'm going to play the Cubs at home against Logan Webb and the Giants. I think Justin Steele is hashtag due to win a game. I like the Cubs to win tonight against the San Francisco Giants. I'll play the White Sox with Cannon who's terrific. White Sox first five. It's down to plus 140. I played plus 150 earlier. Whatever. White Sox first five. Give me the A's and Royals first five under four with Harris and Marsh. Hogan Harris, by the way, sounds like an NXT developmental wrestler. Hogan And Harris has been really good, dropping the leg. Alec Marsh coming off a great start against the Yankees. A's, Royals, first five under. And then give me the Angels-Brewers full game under. Griffin Canning's been good. And Tobias Myers, quietly, has been amazing for the Milwaukee Brewers. So a bunch of baseball bets for me tonight.”
11-9 — The Dodgers defeated the Rockies 11-9 on June 18, 2024, so the Rockies moneyline bet lost (ESPN).
“Ken, any baseball bets for you tonight? Yeah, I got a couple things that stand out. We're going to play against the Dodgers, now second game with no Mookie bets. They've gotten that out to 190 in a few places on the road, beat the Rockies last night. We won on the Dodgers at a really reduced price in that game. Walker Buehler kind of still trying to find it, coming back from injury. They're a huge favorite second game, no bets. The second game theory, we'll play the Rockies. and then another team that's gotten bet out a ton and they played really really well recently and I kind of get it I'll play Toronto at like a short dog price at home Red Sox have gotten bet at about 25 cents now been playing a lot better recently I've got I'm gonna play the yeah I'll bet against my team I'll play the Orioles against the Yankees I have more faith in Suarez than Nester Cortez the nasty Nester against my better judgment and I think the show hates this that I'm to do this. I'm going to play the Cubs at home against Logan Webb and the Giants. I think Justin Steele is hashtag due to win a game. I like the Cubs to win tonight against the San Francisco Giants. I'll play the White Sox with Cannon who's terrific. White Sox first five. It's down to plus 140. I played plus 150 earlier. Whatever. White Sox first five. Give me the A's and Royals first five under four with Harris and Marsh. Hogan Harris, by the way, sounds like an NXT developmental wrestler. Hogan And Harris has been really good, dropping the leg. Alec Marsh coming off a great start against the Yankees. A's, Royals, first five under. And then give me the Angels-Brewers full game under. Griffin Canning's been good. And Tobias Myers, quietly, has been amazing for the Milwaukee Brewers. So a bunch of baseball bets for me tonight.”
4-3 — The Red Sox defeated the Blue Jays 4-3 on June 18, 2024, so the Blue Jays moneyline bet lost (ESPN).
“Ken, any baseball bets for you tonight? Yeah, I got a couple things that stand out. We're going to play against the Dodgers, now second game with no Mookie bets. They've gotten that out to 190 in a few places on the road, beat the Rockies last night. We won on the Dodgers at a really reduced price in that game. Walker Buehler kind of still trying to find it, coming back from injury. They're a huge favorite second game, no bets. The second game theory, we'll play the Rockies. and then another team that's gotten bet out a ton and they played really really well recently and I kind of get it I'll play Toronto at like a short dog price at home Red Sox have gotten bet at about 25 cents now been playing a lot better recently I've got I'm gonna play the yeah I'll bet against my team I'll play the Orioles against the Yankees I have more faith in Suarez than Nester Cortez the nasty Nester against my better judgment and I think the show hates this that I'm to do this. I'm going to play the Cubs at home against Logan Webb and the Giants. I think Justin Steele is hashtag due to win a game. I like the Cubs to win tonight against the San Francisco Giants. I'll play the White Sox with Cannon who's terrific. White Sox first five. It's down to plus 140. I played plus 150 earlier. Whatever. White Sox first five. Give me the A's and Royals first five under four with Harris and Marsh. Hogan Harris, by the way, sounds like an NXT developmental wrestler. Hogan And Harris has been really good, dropping the leg. Alec Marsh coming off a great start against the Yankees. A's, Royals, first five under. And then give me the Angels-Brewers full game under. Griffin Canning's been good. And Tobias Myers, quietly, has been amazing for the Milwaukee Brewers. So a bunch of baseball bets for me tonight.”
4-2 — The Yankees defeated the Orioles 4-2 on June 18, 2024, so the Orioles moneyline bet lost (ESPN).
“Ken, any baseball bets for you tonight? Yeah, I got a couple things that stand out. We're going to play against the Dodgers, now second game with no Mookie bets. They've gotten that out to 190 in a few places on the road, beat the Rockies last night. We won on the Dodgers at a really reduced price in that game. Walker Buehler kind of still trying to find it, coming back from injury. They're a huge favorite second game, no bets. The second game theory, we'll play the Rockies. and then another team that's gotten bet out a ton and they played really really well recently and I kind of get it I'll play Toronto at like a short dog price at home Red Sox have gotten bet at about 25 cents now been playing a lot better recently I've got I'm gonna play the yeah I'll bet against my team I'll play the Orioles against the Yankees I have more faith in Suarez than Nester Cortez the nasty Nester against my better judgment and I think the show hates this that I'm to do this. I'm going to play the Cubs at home against Logan Webb and the Giants. I think Justin Steele is hashtag due to win a game. I like the Cubs to win tonight against the San Francisco Giants. I'll play the White Sox with Cannon who's terrific. White Sox first five. It's down to plus 140. I played plus 150 earlier. Whatever. White Sox first five. Give me the A's and Royals first five under four with Harris and Marsh. Hogan Harris, by the way, sounds like an NXT developmental wrestler. Hogan And Harris has been really good, dropping the leg. Alec Marsh coming off a great start against the Yankees. A's, Royals, first five under. And then give me the Angels-Brewers full game under. Griffin Canning's been good. And Tobias Myers, quietly, has been amazing for the Milwaukee Brewers. So a bunch of baseball bets for me tonight.”
5-2 — The Cubs defeated the Giants 5-2 on June 18, 2024, so the Cubs moneyline bet won (ESPN).
“Ken, any baseball bets for you tonight? Yeah, I got a couple things that stand out. We're going to play against the Dodgers, now second game with no Mookie bets. They've gotten that out to 190 in a few places on the road, beat the Rockies last night. We won on the Dodgers at a really reduced price in that game. Walker Buehler kind of still trying to find it, coming back from injury. They're a huge favorite second game, no bets. The second game theory, we'll play the Rockies. and then another team that's gotten bet out a ton and they played really really well recently and I kind of get it I'll play Toronto at like a short dog price at home Red Sox have gotten bet at about 25 cents now been playing a lot better recently I've got I'm gonna play the yeah I'll bet against my team I'll play the Orioles against the Yankees I have more faith in Suarez than Nester Cortez the nasty Nester against my better judgment and I think the show hates this that I'm to do this. I'm going to play the Cubs at home against Logan Webb and the Giants. I think Justin Steele is hashtag due to win a game. I like the Cubs to win tonight against the San Francisco Giants. I'll play the White Sox with Cannon who's terrific. White Sox first five. It's down to plus 140. I played plus 150 earlier. Whatever. White Sox first five. Give me the A's and Royals first five under four with Harris and Marsh. Hogan Harris, by the way, sounds like an NXT developmental wrestler. Hogan And Harris has been really good, dropping the leg. Alec Marsh coming off a great start against the Yankees. A's, Royals, first five under. And then give me the Angels-Brewers full game under. Griffin Canning's been good. And Tobias Myers, quietly, has been amazing for the Milwaukee Brewers. So a bunch of baseball bets for me tonight.”
2-0 — The White Sox led the Astros 2-0 through five innings on June 18, 2024 (runs in the 3rd and 5th), so the White Sox first-five moneyline bet won (ESPN box score).
“Ken, any baseball bets for you tonight? Yeah, I got a couple things that stand out. We're going to play against the Dodgers, now second game with no Mookie bets. They've gotten that out to 190 in a few places on the road, beat the Rockies last night. We won on the Dodgers at a really reduced price in that game. Walker Buehler kind of still trying to find it, coming back from injury. They're a huge favorite second game, no bets. The second game theory, we'll play the Rockies. and then another team that's gotten bet out a ton and they played really really well recently and I kind of get it I'll play Toronto at like a short dog price at home Red Sox have gotten bet at about 25 cents now been playing a lot better recently I've got I'm gonna play the yeah I'll bet against my team I'll play the Orioles against the Yankees I have more faith in Suarez than Nester Cortez the nasty Nester against my better judgment and I think the show hates this that I'm to do this. I'm going to play the Cubs at home against Logan Webb and the Giants. I think Justin Steele is hashtag due to win a game. I like the Cubs to win tonight against the San Francisco Giants. I'll play the White Sox with Cannon who's terrific. White Sox first five. It's down to plus 140. I played plus 150 earlier. Whatever. White Sox first five. Give me the A's and Royals first five under four with Harris and Marsh. Hogan Harris, by the way, sounds like an NXT developmental wrestler. Hogan And Harris has been really good, dropping the leg. Alec Marsh coming off a great start against the Yankees. A's, Royals, first five under. And then give me the Angels-Brewers full game under. Griffin Canning's been good. And Tobias Myers, quietly, has been amazing for the Milwaukee Brewers. So a bunch of baseball bets for me tonight.”
7-3 — The Athletics led the Royals 7-3 through five innings on June 18, 2024 (10 combined runs), so the first-five under 4 total bet lost (ESPN box score).
“All right, let's start with game five of the NBA finals, Ken, where we do have movement in the betting market based off the Porzingis news, right, that he's available to play. I'm still seeing a bet MGM six and a half Boston, two, ten and a half the total. I'd say like 85%, 90% of sportsbooks are seven. A lot of six and a halves are juiced. Is this enough of a thing to be the situation that we described? This feels like a gray area where I feel like you could make, you could not make the bet. You need a little more, right? Well, just like, is that what's going on here? or is this just like the tiniest move ever off of a, you know, a tweet of some, like, it just, I don't know. This doesn't feel to me like what we're talking about normally, but we also have an hour left toward the game. Does that mean it can't go up more? Maybe Dallas for a little bit. I will pivot to another sport just to draw a comparison. This is the first game for the Dodgers without Mookie Betts. They're playing the Rockies tonight. They opened a minus 180 favorite on the overnight. In some places, they are now minus 155. News and information has been introduced into a betting market that has caused the price to change drastically i would like to bet the los angeles dodgers tonight at minus 155 that would be that would be my bet for tonight uh even though their picture stinks so does the other picture the rockies lineup we talked about this in the break this is like embarrassing um doesn't have to be right is news and information causing something to move first game without a star let's try first game without a star for a baseball team we'll play the dodgers tonight uh i'll have a couple baseball bets for tonight i'm gonna play the rangers minus”
9-5 — Dodgers beat Rockies 9-5, so the Dodgers moneyline cashed (ESPN box score).
“market was going nuts while the game was going this was a really fun one the market's going crazy for consmite as the game is going on and then after the game it somehow keeps going crazy for several hours and then the next morning uh here's what i was doing every time barkov got to plus 200 or better i bet it for the limit and then i went on another place i bet it for the limit and another one until it went back down again that's all that i did because i don't think anybody has a clue here and if we're going to say one's way more likely than the other we're doing it wrong we have no”
Connor McDavid won the 2024 Conn Smythe Trophy as NHL playoff MVP, not Aleksander Barkov (NHL.com). (Connor McDavid won the 2024 Conn Smythe Trophy)
“the only way you should be nervous so let's say edmonton wins tomorrow night like 2-1 i don't i don't think you should be nervous at all like i i i don't have florida to win as much as you do but i have florida to win a nice amount of money i will be zero percent nervous not zero but not very nervous if florida loses a close game”
The Florida Panthers defeated the Edmonton Oilers 2-1 in Game 7 on June 24, 2024 to win the 2024 Stanley Cup Final, the franchise's first championship (ESPN).
“bet exact as now that the bracket has been set like bracket one bracket two so this is similar to how we have panthers over oilers you could bet like team that's going to win and then over who do you think they would play in the college world series like uh whatever championship series whatever they call it's the best two out of three it's the final series of the tournament um tennessee over florida the peyton manning series i guess or something like that uh tennessee over florida 25 to 1 uh that is an exacto that i have bet um i i think a lot of the value from that comes from florida being better than their their rating which is what colin alluded to and the other part of is i think tennessee is the best team and i think they're gonna win uh jake your exacto would be want i think it would be tennessee over florida but just for funsies because i have a ticket on”
Tennessee won the 2024 CWS championship, but over Texas A&M, not Florida (Florida was eliminated earlier by Texas A&M); the Tennessee/Florida exacta loses.
“a reasonable closing number this is what we talked about yesterday uh i like boston in the game this is exactly the setup that we look for news and information introduced to a market that's causing it to go in one direction and we like the opposite side we will wait uh i'm betting boston to win the game i don't want the plus three i don't care i think they're going to win the game i think they're way better than dallas even with horford playing a lot of minutes um the total is like kind of stayed the same which i don't love i would love to be feeling like i'm contrarian on the over also uh but my prediction earlier in the show was i think boston wins in more of a shootout we haven't had one of those yet um and i think in that kind of a game jason tatum will play really well and score a lot of points so you know you want to combo this up whatever Celtics to win over Tatum over uh kind of how it's playing out yeah favorite favorite bet is just wait as long as possible Celtics to win the game uh I'll guess you're right like we did this yesterday and you said”
DAL 99, BOS 106 — Boston beat Dallas 106-99 in Game 3; the Celtics moneyline cashes.
“two for like two seconds and be offended if you didn't the game to go to overtime tonight is like 10 to 1 i i think this is the crazy game i think this is like we haven't had the crazy game yet we've had two very not crazy games i think this is the maybe i'm wrong the boston wins maybe like dallas at the buzzer whatever game to go to overtime for a very very small amount of money and i don't want any credit if this hits i'll just take the very small win just like a hunch i don't get a lot of hunch bets out on this show the other stuff's not a hunch but i like boston a lot but maybe game so ken game to bet a game to go to overtime at 10 to 1 uh baseball bets tonight”
BOS 106, DAL 99 — Game 3 ended in regulation (Boston 106, Dallas 99); it did not go to overtime.
“tonight a game also i know that i gave out the fever and then they didn't play caitlin clark and lost and didn't cover uh i still kind of want to fade the sun the next like five to ten games and their third game in five days they're on the road and seven and a half against chicago who didn't play well um but way more rested which feels like a good situation to take points honestly uh chicago plus seven and a half okay like should i should i take that because i feel like my my wmba i feel like i'm i'm even steven on wmba this year well if you're even steven i have no opinion on the game you got money to play with yeah yeah okay yeah i'll bet this guy with you why not okay listen this looks like to bet like to have like a lot of things going on i can't believe”
CHI 75, CON 83 — Connecticut beat Chicago 83-75, a margin of -8 vs. the +7.5 line; Sky bust.
“i'm usually good with the numbers here 19 and a half is the number right not even like like easy over on caitlin son or tough right like the son are like a really they're the i think they're the second best defensive team in the league so like it's not this isn't some like easy you know like coasting to the over probably at the same time i like the over like i just i yeah it's uh i think”
72-89 — Sun beat Fever 89-72 on June 10, 2024; Caitlin Clark scored 10 points, missing the over 19.5 line (ESPN box score). (Caitlin Clark: 10 points)
“That's why the best player wins so often. So we had like a mini Porzingis bubble. Everybody talking themselves. Porzingis was like six to one after game one to win finals MVP. And I'm sure I wasn't the only one who was in there like betting Jaylen Brown and Jason Tatum as that was happening. Like, no, that's probably not what this is going to be. Let's just bet those two guys.”
Jaylen Brown won the 2024 NBA Finals MVP award (ESPN). (2024 NBA Finals MVP: Jaylen Brown)
“uh why don't we start in what was start with the stanley cup final um ken i don't think you're gonna bet the game tonight because you already have florida to win the series but uh just analysis of the game and then i'll give mine and then we'll move on to the other sports yeah kind of like a smorgasbord of stuff tonight like i have a wnba game i like there's one baseball thing i like uh if i didn't have anything on the series i would bet florida and like a 15 20 cent reaction in the market from game one entirely predicated on a game where there was a week off between and like everyone was getting their bearings seems weird to me uh expect florida to win again tonight wouldn't be surprised if barkoff scored and or had an assist in the game uh i will bet florida tonight we talked about this earlier um bob rofsky plays even like 80 of what he did in game one”
Florida 4, Edmonton 1 — Florida beat Edmonton 4-1 in Stanley Cup Final Game 2, winning outright as moneyline favorites (ESPN box score).
“this team is like they're just not that the mystics are a one and a half the miss oh and nine and on a second night of a back-to-back they're favored over another wnba team if that tells you if this is maybe a buy point for the fever or not right now. Maybe it's just to continue to be a sell point for the Mystics. I can't stop betting under on their win totals every day for a month and just keep losing. And people just keep, oh, but they're competitive in the games. Yeah, competitive in losing, which they'll continue to do. I actually kind of like them tonight, but it will be the only game this year where that's probably true. So you have this just remarkable setup. Market hates them. They're probably better than the Mystics. They're probably better than the Sparks, even though Cameron Brink has been like a really kind of a breath of fresh air defensively for that team. la is really bad la is not going to make the playoffs they'll improve as the season goes along probably i have over 10 and a half win total on them you know they could be the second to last team third to last team whatever i think indiana can beat la now it's like all right that's pretty easy to sell can you can i get you better than two of the other teams so you get the eighth spot instead of them now the funny thing is the next team is chicago which is where all of where all of this the politics and the firestorm and everything started that's angel reese's team It's also the team of many other WNBA players. I think it's reasonable that these two teams could be similar at the end of the year. So it's like, all right, Washington, L.A., maybe you can beat Chicago. This is all pretty easy to understand so far. This doesn't take a lot for this to happen. Like the last team is going to be tough. Brittany Griner is probably going to come back in a couple weeks for Phoenix. They're the next team up in the standings. She comes back. They get better. They're really likely to make it. Atlanta's kind of meh. Dallas is kind of meh. Like you have these average teams that are here. So look, you're getting four to one on a team that everyone thinks is already in the toilet. That has a ton of time off. That has a very explainable series of results so far. And things are probably going to get better. Now, do they get better where they make it? I don't know. But you're getting four to one. And it kind of feels like we've already closed the book on whether this team could be. I'm not even selling you good. It's almost like the Panthers when Matt Rule was the coach. I don't need them to be good. I just need them to be like pretty competitive do you think Indiana can be pretty can they be eighth out of 12 can they be a bad team this year that's eighth out of 12 bad team not the worst team can they just be a bad team I kind of think they can and if the second night of a back-to-back against the Mystics tomorrow is where this starts then the time to buy would be now it would be before that game tomorrow night because that would ideally be a win that the market was not expecting and then that starts to kind of the momentum going toward wins so I don't have to be right But I do think if you were looking for a buy point on the fever, I mean, this one is just flashing red lights, time off, time off between games, easier schedule, a bizarre point spread tomorrow night against the worst team in the league. You know, what else can I say? Just it's you look at everything and it kind of adds up to probably want to buy the fever right now in some way, shape or form. So Steve Wilkes is going to lead them to to go over the win total and to get to the playoffs. I don't really care who does it. Yeah. Doc Rivers. I didn't put anybody in charge. I don't care. can they can they get to eight out of 12 you could also if you want to bet the win total over a couple places have it 13 and a half right now third lowest projected win total in the league by multiple games over chicago who's above them uh so two and nine you need 31 games left 12 and 19 the rest of the season to hit that you gotta go 12 and 19 to hit the over i i don't i don't think washington can hit a total like that i don't know if the sparks can beaver can go 12 and 19 now that they're finally out of this brutal stretch players improving as the season goes on clark improving as the season goes on maybe yeah seems pretty reasonable actually uh caitlin clark's points prop uh coming up tomorrow night 17 and a half she's averaging almost 16 points per game all this time off i'll i'll be a square and i'll bet the caitlin clark points over and i'll bet the fever tomorrow night in that game against against the washington mystics nick and ken”
85-83 — Indiana beat Washington 85-83; the Fever covered +1.5 by winning outright (ESPN box score).
“points prop uh coming up tomorrow night 17 and a half she's averaging almost 16 points per game all this time off i'll i'll be a square and i'll bet the caitlin clark points over and i'll bet the fever tomorrow night in that game against against the washington mystics nick and ken hear you better you bet uh ken giving you great stuff there on the indiana fever if you'd like”
Caitlin Clark scored 30 points, well over the 17.5 line, in Indiana's 85-83 win at Washington (ESPN box score). (Clark: 30 points)
“One game that's starting in 25 minutes, I've been betting the Reds basically every day this week because they're starting to get hot, and all the players are saying that they're starting to play better and they're feeling really confident. So this is basically a blind bet for me on Cincinnati. They're a small home favorite tonight against the Chicago Cubs, so I'll lay a small price with the Reds in the minus 120 to minus 125 range, depending on where you're shopping. Give me the Cincinnati Reds tonight at home against the Chicago Cubs.”
8-4 — Cincinnati beat the Cubs 8-4; the Reds moneyline cashes (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Pirates tonight. Walker Buehler starting for the Dodgers. Right? Yeah, I like the Pirates sweep. I bet the Pirates last night. I wanted to bet them two nights ago with Jared Jones, and I didn't. But I did bet them last night with Skeens, and they won, despite Otani hitting that mammoth shot off the Skeens, which is pretty cool. I will bet the Pirates tonight. And if you want to bet them live, we're one out into the game. I do like Pittsburgh. I think the Dodgers are a little overvalued here with the thought maybe that they're not going to get swept with Walker Bueller on the mound, who's like telling you that he's not right as he works his way back into shape. And Felter, Pittsburgh starter, actually pretty good. I'll bet the Pirates had a big price tonight. So Pirates and Reds for me.”
11-7 — The Dodgers beat Pittsburgh 11-7; the Pirates moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“i think tennessee's extremely likely to win uh i like florida these a lot of these are big favorites so you can kind of mix and match these i like florida state and virginia and north carolina to all advance in their series i like oregon state a lot against kentucky i don't really have a strong opinion on georgia nc state so maybe that means like play the dog in the series same with clemson florida maybe that means play the dog in the series don't have a bet on either of those right now i think a&m is going to get by oregon pretty easily but i'll kind of be rooting against them because i have tennessee futures so like best thing going god fsu virginia parlay FSU Virginia UNC parlay something like that straight bet I would just play Oregon State that's probably the only price that I think is awesome alright so good stuff there”
3-2 — Kentucky swept Oregon State 2-0 in the Lexington super regional, winning the clincher 3-2 (Kentucky Athletics).
“First quarter total remains 55 and a half, something we talked about a couple of days ago. And this comes courtesy of Alex. Chris Stapps Porzingis will not have a minutes limit tonight. We don't know if he's going to start per Celtics coach Joe Mazzullo. So that's the latest on Chris Stapps Porzingis. Ken, side total props. What tackles your fancy game one of the NBA finals? So, I mean, won't have a minutes limit. like you can play the unders on poor zingas and like obviously he can aggravate the injury like he could just not have his stamina like a bunch of stuff can happen where he still goes under the markets like started to move under on his points and rebounds pretty much every like i'm i think i'm good on this like no minutes limit great i mean i just won't bet it and maybe he goes under but i think i've heard all i need to hear to not be on that anymore um if i had to bet the side i won't have bets on all this stuff but it's like the finals so if i had to bet the side of the game i would lay the celtics kid luca have historically been atrocious in game ones game one of the first two series of the playoffs they played their worst game of the series then they had minnesota in the worst fatigue spot ever and beat them great um i i think the point of this series is that we're going to literally leave it being like oh right the celtics they were historically good uh and i think that starts tonight i like the first quarter over that is actually a bet for me so if i had to bet the side i bet the celtics if i had to bet the total i bet the over um i am actually betting the first quarter over i am actually betting Jaylen Brown”
107-89 — Boston and Dallas combined for 57 first-quarter points (Boston 37, Dallas 20), over the 55.5 line, in Boston's 107-89 Game 1 win (ESPN box score). (Q1: Boston 37, Dallas 20 (57 total))
“i totally understand why you would never want to do this 31 and a half just like are we sure what if they oh ready for this word nick what if they blitz him all the time trying to get the ball out of his hands what if what if we what if we're what if we're relying on pj washington and derrick jones and all these guys to knock down threes you know a good strategy uh minnesota didn't employ that as much boston has the personnel to do a lot of crazy stuff on defense switch everything trap get back like they the best defensive team in the league besides minnesota so i'll play lucas under points i don't even know he's gonna play bad i just like i don't think we have like a guarantee it's going to play out this way so under on Luca over on Jalen Brown over in the first quarter uh”
Luka Doncic scored 30 points, under the 31.5 line, in Dallas's Game 1 loss to Boston (ESPN box score). (Doncic: 30 points)
“in like four minutes great hold on ready for my picks for my picks for tonight i like yeah go ahead i'm gonna do mine too i have over 10 and a half reds rockies uh the reds offense scored 13 runs last night most of the season and all their hitters are like we all like gonna get hot right now And Frankie Montas stinks Over 10 at Coors Reds Rockies And the Diamondbacks are streaking in a good way They finally starting to play well and San Francisco Giants have lost five consecutive games.”
CIN 4, COL 1 — Cincinnati beat Colorado 4-1 on June 4, 2024, a combined 5 runs, well under the 10.5 total (ESPN box score).
“Well, Arizona starter is an opener, but pitches pretty well. So I'll take the Diamondbacks' first five against the Giants, minus 120, D-backs' first five, and over with the Reds and the Rockies is my bets for tonight.”
After 5: ARI 4, SF 2 (Final ARI 8, SF 5) — Arizona led San Francisco 4-2 through five innings on June 4, 2024, en route to an 8-5 final (ESPN box score).
“So I think they cover 13 by game going under. So parlay, Mystics plus the points, 13 and a half now with under 152 and a half. And like just rock fight this thing to the finish line.”
CONN 76, WAS 59 — Connecticut beat Washington 76-59 on June 4, 2024 — a 17-point margin that fails Mystics +13.5, though the combined 135 points clears under 152.5; the parlay needs both legs (ESPN box score).
“i'm trusting the algorithm yeah absolutely uh i like uh two team money line partly tonight in college baseball that pays like about it's like minus 120 uh miss state on the money line so jake likes run line i do too but just like if you want to just like a fun thing tonight mississippi state and oregon state together is like minus 120 i think minus 125 uh i also like louisiana tech i think that's the team that's playing k-state i like them tonight as well i like grand canyon too i just part of me just looks at this market and just goes like are we all just going to be really”
Mississippi State beat St. John's 5-2 and Oregon State beat Tulane 15-4, so both legs of the moneyline parlay won (ESPN box scores). (Mississippi State 5-2; Oregon State 15-4)
“damage it's eight and a half and i like Jazz Chisholm Jr. for a home run just for funsies i like the over in that game as well nice like that has jazz been uh has he been has he been hitting really well or what's what's his deal he showed up as the number two hitter in my algorithm today so it's like it's it's an anomaly when you see that name up there so i'm just gonna throw some yeah i'm trusting the algorithm yeah absolutely uh i like uh two team money line partly tonight in college baseball that pays like about it's like minus 120 uh miss state on the money line so jake likes run line i do too but just like if you want to just like a fun thing tonight mississippi state and oregon state together is like minus 120 i think minus 125 uh i also like louisiana tech i think that's the team that's playing k-state i like them tonight as well i like grand canyon too i just part of me just looks at this market and just goes like are we all just going to be really dumb here and it's like grand canyon at a tiny number against a team playing at home it's a seeded team this is sometimes where i feel like we just get we run away with these like upsets that and then the price just kind of gets away from us and i don't i don't know what's going on there but i think a couple teams now you can you can pair together with some stuff that's pretty fun”
Grand Canyon 9, Arizona 4 — Grand Canyon defeated Arizona 9-4 in the Tucson Regional opener (ESPN box score).
“The market was pretty close on, on how it priced some stuff, but some interesting things have happened at a couple of the market making books, texas a&m has started to get bet more aggressively than tennessee has been bet and that has caused like a some a little bit of a price shift in how a&m looks versus how tennessee looks this isn't the same everywhere uh mgm on the screen right now tennessee is a lower price favorite than a&m but it is interesting to like kind of scan what everybody's got people that take the most money all right like what are they dealing right now whoa like what happened to their a&m number and doesn't look like a lot of people want tennessee i'll just start by saying like i disagree with that and just maybe this is too macro my numbers versus the people who follow the sport every day like i would definitely not say the people who are betting into some of these are like i'm smarter than them or i have better info than them it's definitely not true just like with this this future stuff like i'm pretty good at this i have a pretty good methodology we had a lot of success last year in predicting the winner we did not get the winner lsu was in our pool but we chose to take two other options instead they both made it to omaha one of them florida made it to the final and lost to lsu so like there's at least something going on here and tennessee and a&m are both really clean they both make a lot of sense as candidates they're the top best two teams in the country you know i don't think that's surprising um i just like i don't the number one team curse thing so no overall number one seed has won the tournament since 1999 um miami was the team that won it's been 25 years tennessee's the number one overall seed this year i mean that's great wake forest also was two games three games away from winning last year they were the number one overall seed they made the semi-final they lost to paul skeetons so they're cursed that's what happened like come on yeah um i just it's you know just some of this stuff so look like tennessee can lose i just i like them more than a and m if this is going to be what the price is so i actually bet some tennessee going into the turn i didn't think i was going to do it and i forgot a price that i liked uh six to one or better i think it's pretty good on them so i started just just jeremy i just because i bet two teams i just want to pair this together so i did i bet them i have oak state but like none of the numbers are still around so it's just like really tough like oak state got bet everywhere which i agree with but like i we bet them if you want the regional i still think is way good um i bet tennessee for a pretty good amount which i didn't expect uh and i bet duke which i don't think anybody's surprised because we've talked about it 25 times this week so that's the only two i'm holding going into the regionals and maybe we'll add more. Hopefully we won't because Tennessee will just look so dominant.”
Tennessee beat Texas A&M in the finals to win the 2024 Men's College World Series (NCAA.com). (2024 CWS champion: Tennessee)
“I'll, I'll just say I had kind of teased this the first couple of days. Like I didn't know what I wanted my future strategy to be going into the tournament. Who did I want to bet on right off the bat? Did I want to wait? There were too many teams that were pretty clean fits. The market was pretty close on, on how it priced some stuff, but some interesting things have happened at a couple of the market making books, texas a&m has started to get bet more aggressively than tennessee has been bet and that has caused like a some a little bit of a price shift in how a&m looks versus how tennessee looks this isn't the same everywhere uh mgm on the screen right now tennessee is a lower price favorite than a&m but it is interesting to like kind of scan what everybody's got people that take the most money all right like what are they dealing right now whoa like what happened to their a&m number and doesn't look like a lot of people want tennessee i'll just start by saying like i disagree with that and just maybe this is too macro my numbers versus the people who follow the sport every day like i would definitely not say the people who are betting into some of these are like i'm smarter than them or i have better info than them it's definitely not true just like with this this future stuff like i'm pretty good at this i have a pretty good methodology we had a lot of success last year in predicting the winner we did not get the winner lsu was in our pool but we chose to take two other options instead they both made it to omaha one of them florida made it to the final and lost to lsu so like there's at least something going on here and tennessee and a&m are both really clean they both make a lot of sense as candidates they're the top best two teams in the country you know i don't think that's surprising um i just like i don't the number one team curse thing so no overall number one seed has won the tournament since 1999 um miami was the team that won it's been 25 years tennessee's the number one overall seed this year i mean that's great wake forest also was two games three games away from winning last year they were the number one overall seed they made the semi-final they lost to paul skeetons so they're cursed that's what happened like come on yeah um i just it's you know just some of this stuff so look like tennessee can lose i just i like them more than a and m if this is going to be what the price is so i actually bet some tennessee going into the turn i didn't think i was going to do it and i forgot a price that i liked uh six to one or better i think it's pretty good on them so i started just just jeremy i just because i bet two teams i just want to pair this together so i did i bet them i have oak state but like none of the numbers are still around so it's just like really tough like oak state got bet everywhere which i agree with but like i we bet them if you want the regional i still think is way good um i bet tennessee for a pretty good amount which i didn't expect uh and i bet duke which i don't think anybody's surprised because we've talked about it 25 times this week so that's the only two i'm holding going into the regionals and maybe we'll add more. Hopefully we won't because Tennessee will just look so dominant. Or they'll lose, and then we'll go back to the drawing board. But I started with those two. I hadn't finalized the plan yet, and it just kind of the market made my decision for me”
Tennessee, not Duke, won the 2024 Men's College World Series (NCAA.com). (2024 CWS champion: Tennessee)
“if you wanted an upset i'll go out of order uh just in terms of the difference between the teams you know from listening to the show that jake and i both don't think virginia is particularly good versus last year's team they're still nationally seated uh they're still rated like they're pretty good but you look under the hood and it looks pretty rough versus how they looked last year and that doesn't mean they have to lose here but pen was really really feisty in last year's tournament got to the regional final so has some tournament experience now this team is not as good as last year's team so this is not like don't expect to see this is like oral roberts don't expect to see the same thing just difference between the teams if you wanted like a big price that actually has some chance a lot of these don't in my opinion um that's one where the difference between the teams doesn't look like as big as how the market has it where virginia is about minus 800 to win the game tomorrow and pan about five to one six to one depending on where you go uh i would expect virginia to win just like is that the right difference between these two i don't like virginia if you can't tell i don't like virginia very much i think mississippi state's going to win that region and i bet on that so there's like kind of like an upset pick just hey if you want it i see all these games if there's a is there a huge price that actually has a chance in my opinion uh that would be it and then i mean the other one would”
No. 12 Virginia went unbeaten and won the Charlottesville Regional, eliminating Mississippi State 9-2 (Virginia Sports official site). (Charlottesville regional winner: Virginia)
“Hopefully we don't have to add anybody else. It would be great. Just watch A&M somehow trip over themselves, which probably won't happen. I think they're going to win their region really easily. uh and yeah but maybe it's just those two duke's got good upside they have a really good team profile and tennessee's the best team and they're priced similarly to other teams that i don't think they're actually that close to and maybe i'll be wrong but uh but we'll kind of see how that goes to start we can always add more change what we want to do but i i like the idea of having both of those teams entering the tournament feel very safe having both of those teams entering the tournament um at least the process behind them was safe and i kind of we'll see what happens Jake, before we went to break there in the third hour, I just wanted to, I mean, all the money line prices are open for a winner of the games tomorrow. Double elimination for people who don't know how the group stage works. So, you know, if you like Tennessee and the upset of all upsets happen tomorrow, Northern Kentucky is about 8-1 to win the game tomorrow against Tennessee. You know, even if that happens, Tennessee's not out. It's not like March Madness where it's single elimination. Just wanted to say that. I know people that follow the sport are like, duh. but just like worth noting there um i'll kind of go next with just here are a few bets that i like for tomorrow and then if jake has anything else so we can kind of go back and forth here i know jake i'll save arizona grand canyon jake and talk about that uh one of the last games of the night and why he likes maybe a lot of games in that night session which i think are really interesting a few things that stand out to me tomorrow are going to be some of these two threes uh so there are four seeds in each region one two three four one plays four two plays three that's how we start uh and then as i mentioned double elimination um some of these two threes i think is always where you'll get the most interesting pricing right you'll always get something like mid ones on the favorite and and coming back the other way on the dog minus 150 130 minus 160 140 like this is typically where you see markets more like this as opposed to some of the blowout one seed games where you maybe want to lay seven runs or take seven runs uh with a game like tennessee or you know who's a huge favorite tomorrow like i think probably north carolina is a really big favorite tomorrow arkansas who i would not lay the runs with which we talked about with colin wilson already team that likes to win games 2-1 every single time uh virginia is a big favorite tomorrow if you wanted an upset i'll go out of order uh just in terms of the difference between the teams you know from listening to the show that jake and i both don't think virginia is particularly good versus last year's team they're still nationally seated uh they're still rated like they're pretty good but you look under the hood and it looks pretty rough versus how they looked last year and that doesn't mean they have to lose here but pen was really really feisty in last year's tournament got to the regional final so has some tournament experience now this team is not as good as last year's team so this is not like don't expect to see this is like oral roberts don't expect to see the same thing just difference between the teams if you wanted like a big price that actually has some chance a lot of these don't in my opinion um that's one where the difference between the teams doesn't look like as big as how the market has it where virginia is about minus 800 to win the game tomorrow and pan about five to one six to one depending on where you go uh i would expect virginia to win just like is that the right difference between these two i don't like virginia if you can't tell i don't like virginia very much i think mississippi state's going to win that region and i bet on that so there's like kind of like an upset pick just hey if you want it i see all these games if there's a is there a huge price that actually has a chance in my opinion uh that would be it and then i mean the other one would be to bet against Arkansas if you wanted to just because this is the style that they like to they like to play these 2-1-3-2 games now I don't want to do that tomorrow like I I'm I'm less in on that probably than most people Arkansas is hosting the regional I have them rated so much better than Virginia as a comparison but like that would be another team where they kind of like to play with their food a little bit play close games play low scoring games so upset wise that's kind of what I would go with just like huge price that I think has the remotest chance of hitting I don't expect it to hit but that's kind of not the point uh actual bets like bets that i am more interested in making southern miss we talked about a lot yesterday uh they're about minus 155 minus 160 against indiana i like that price um would play that up a lot no not a lot more but like to 200 probably something like that just for my with my numbers um i think duke is actually still not right and everyone's been betting them and everyone like everyone's on this now and they're to less than minus 300 against UConn tomorrow, and I think there's a way bigger difference between the teams than that. So we'll see. We'll see how that goes. I like Louisiana Tech against Kansas State. They opened about minus 135, minus 140. That's probably one of the biggest differences I have tomorrow. I like Dallas Baptist, anything under minus 200 against West Virginia. And the last one I have, it was something in that same price range. Oh, if you want a dog, like a really small dog tomorrow, but one that I think it really has a chance to win, UNC Wilmington. against Georgia Tech. Tech favored in the game. This is a region in Athens, so not home field advantage, but not a lot of travel involved for Georgia Tech, obviously, to go to Athens to play the game. But for Wilmington, I guess you could make the same argument. Georgia Tech opened a favorite in the game. Wilmington's like plus 105, plus 110. That would be like a really, really, really small priced upset where I would make that game more flippy or even Wilmington a really small favorite. So that's another one that stands out. And then last one, and then Jake, we can get one from you or seven or whatever a comment from you on the rest of the games including arizona grand canyon i like san diego i like the price is not great to win the region they're in a region with oregon fresno and then ucsb hosts the region the the price on san diego to win the region is pretty short they're like i think in i got circa i think they were under two to one to win the region now and i when i did my work i was like oh i'm gonna get a really good price on san diego nope hasn't happened at all i will say like them a lot against oregon they open minus 130 um oregon one of those teams that's like made the college world series made they make the world series of the super last year made a deep run last year i think they were the team that lost to oral roberts in the super um not as good as last year rating down numbers down still rated maybe feisty because of what happened last year san diego uh i think should be a bigger favorite in this game so i like them as well so a lot to shoot on there obviously but just kind of some rapid fire jeremy just because we've been we've spent you haven't been on the show we've spent so much time doing this tournament and have been like waiting for these like salivating for these markets”
Indiana 10, Southern Miss 4 — Indiana defeated Southern Miss 10-4 in the Knoxville Regional opener (ESPN box score).
“uh and yeah but maybe it's just those two duke's got good upside they have a really good team profile and tennessee's the best team and they're priced similarly to other teams that i don't think they're actually that close to and maybe i'll be wrong but uh but we'll kind of see how that goes to start we can always add more change what we want to do but i i like the idea of having both of those teams entering the tournament feel very safe having both of those teams entering the tournament um at least the process behind them was safe and i kind of we'll see what happens Jake, before we went to break there in the third hour, I just wanted to, I mean, all the money line prices are open for a winner of the games tomorrow.”
UConn 4, Duke 1 — UConn defeated Duke 4-1 in the Norman Regional opener (ESPN box score).
“Hopefully we don't have to add anybody else. It would be great. Just watch A&M somehow trip over themselves, which probably won't happen. I think they're going to win their region really easily. uh and yeah but maybe it's just those two duke's got good upside they have a really good team profile and tennessee's the best team and they're priced similarly to other teams that i don't think they're actually that close to and maybe i'll be wrong but uh but we'll kind of see how that goes to start we can always add more change what we want to do but i i like the idea of having both of those teams entering the tournament feel very safe having both of those teams entering the tournament um at least the process behind them was safe and i kind of we'll see what happens Jake, before we went to break there in the third hour, I just wanted to, I mean, all the money line prices are open for a winner of the games tomorrow. Double elimination for people who don't know how the group stage works. So, you know, if you like Tennessee and the upset of all upsets happen tomorrow, Northern Kentucky is about 8-1 to win the game tomorrow against Tennessee. You know, even if that happens, Tennessee's not out. It's not like March Madness where it's single elimination. Just wanted to say that. I know people that follow the sport are like, duh. but just like worth noting there um i'll kind of go next with just here are a few bets that i like for tomorrow and then if jake has anything else so we can kind of go back and forth here i know jake i'll save arizona grand canyon jake and talk about that uh one of the last games of the night and why he likes maybe a lot of games in that night session which i think are really interesting a few things that stand out to me tomorrow are going to be some of these two threes uh so there are four seeds in each region one two three four one plays four two plays three that's how we start uh and then as i mentioned double elimination um some of these two threes i think is always where you'll get the most interesting pricing right you'll always get something like mid ones on the favorite and and coming back the other way on the dog minus 150 130 minus 160 140 like this is typically where you see markets more like this as opposed to some of the blowout one seed games where you maybe want to lay seven runs or take seven runs uh with a game like tennessee or you know who's a huge favorite tomorrow like i think probably north carolina is a really big favorite tomorrow arkansas who i would not lay the runs with which we talked about with colin wilson already team that likes to win games 2-1 every single time uh virginia is a big favorite tomorrow if you wanted an upset i'll go out of order uh just in terms of the difference between the teams you know from listening to the show that jake and i both don't think virginia is particularly good versus last year's team they're still nationally seated uh they're still rated like they're pretty good but you look under the hood and it looks pretty rough versus how they looked last year and that doesn't mean they have to lose here but pen was really really feisty in last year's tournament got to the regional final so has some tournament experience now this team is not as good as last year's team so this is not like don't expect to see this is like oral roberts don't expect to see the same thing just difference between the teams if you wanted like a big price that actually has some chance a lot of these don't in my opinion um that's one where the difference between the teams doesn't look like as big as how the market has it where virginia is about minus 800 to win the game tomorrow and pan about five to one six to one depending on where you go uh i would expect virginia to win just like is that the right difference between these two i don't like virginia if you can't tell i don't like virginia very much i think mississippi state's going to win that region and i bet on that so there's like kind of like an upset pick just hey if you want it i see all these games if there's a is there a huge price that actually has a chance in my opinion uh that would be it and then i mean the other one would be to bet against Arkansas if you wanted to just because this is the style that they like to they like to play these 2-1-3-2 games now I don't want to do that tomorrow like I I'm I'm less in on that probably than most people Arkansas is hosting the regional I have them rated so much better than Virginia as a comparison but like that would be another team where they kind of like to play with their food a little bit play close games play low scoring games so upset wise that's kind of what I would go with just like huge price that I think has the remotest chance of hitting I don't expect it to hit but that's kind of not the point uh actual bets like bets that i am more interested in making southern miss we talked about a lot yesterday uh they're about minus 155 minus 160 against indiana i like that price um would play that up a lot no not a lot more but like to 200 probably something like that just for my with my numbers um i think duke is actually still not right and everyone's been betting them and everyone like everyone's on this now and they're to less than minus 300 against UConn tomorrow, and I think there's a way bigger difference between the teams than that. So we'll see. We'll see how that goes. I like Louisiana Tech against Kansas State. They opened about minus 135, minus 140. That's probably one of the biggest differences I have tomorrow. I like Dallas Baptist, anything under minus 200 against West Virginia. And the last one I have, it was something in that same price range. Oh, if you want a dog, like a really small dog tomorrow, but one that I think it really has a chance to win, UNC Wilmington. against Georgia Tech. Tech favored in the game. This is a region in Athens, so not home field advantage, but not a lot of travel involved for Georgia Tech, obviously, to go to Athens to play the game. But for Wilmington, I guess you could make the same argument. Georgia Tech opened a favorite in the game. Wilmington's like plus 105, plus 110. That would be like a really, really, really small priced upset where I would make that game more flippy or even Wilmington a really small favorite. So that's another one that stands out. And then last one, and then Jake, we can get one from you or seven or whatever a comment from you on the rest of the games including arizona grand canyon i like san diego i like the price is not great to win the region they're in a region with oregon fresno and then ucsb hosts the region the the price on san diego to win the region is pretty short they're like i think in i got circa i think they were under two to one to win the region now and i when i did my work i was like oh i'm gonna get a really good price on san diego nope hasn't happened at all i will say like them a lot against oregon they open minus 130 um oregon one of those teams that's like made the college world series made they make the world series of the super last year made a deep run last year i think they were the team that lost to oral roberts in the super um not as good as last year rating down numbers down still rated maybe feisty because of what happened last year san diego uh i think should be a bigger favorite in this game so i like them as well so a lot to shoot on there obviously but just kind of some rapid fire jeremy just because we've been we've spent you haven't been on the show we've spent so much time doing this tournament and have been like waiting for these like salivating for these markets”
Kansas State 19, Louisiana Tech 4 — Kansas State defeated Louisiana Tech 19-4 in their regional opener (ESPN box score).
“Hopefully we don't have to add anybody else. It would be great. Just watch A&M somehow trip over themselves, which probably won't happen. I think they're going to win their region really easily. uh and yeah but maybe it's just those two duke's got good upside they have a really good team profile and tennessee's the best team and they're priced similarly to other teams that i don't think they're actually that close to and maybe i'll be wrong but uh but we'll kind of see how that goes to start we can always add more change what we want to do but i i like the idea of having both of those teams entering the tournament feel very safe having both of those teams entering the tournament um at least the process behind them was safe and i kind of we'll see what happens Jake, before we went to break there in the third hour, I just wanted to, I mean, all the money line prices are open for a winner of the games tomorrow. Double elimination for people who don't know how the group stage works. So, you know, if you like Tennessee and the upset of all upsets happen tomorrow, Northern Kentucky is about 8-1 to win the game tomorrow against Tennessee. You know, even if that happens, Tennessee's not out. It's not like March Madness where it's single elimination. Just wanted to say that. I know people that follow the sport are like, duh. but just like worth noting there um i'll kind of go next with just here are a few bets that i like for tomorrow and then if jake has anything else so we can kind of go back and forth here i know jake i'll save arizona grand canyon jake and talk about that uh one of the last games of the night and why he likes maybe a lot of games in that night session which i think are really interesting a few things that stand out to me tomorrow are going to be some of these two threes uh so there are four seeds in each region one two three four one plays four two plays three that's how we start uh and then as i mentioned double elimination um some of these two threes i think is always where you'll get the most interesting pricing right you'll always get something like mid ones on the favorite and and coming back the other way on the dog minus 150 130 minus 160 140 like this is typically where you see markets more like this as opposed to some of the blowout one seed games where you maybe want to lay seven runs or take seven runs uh with a game like tennessee or you know who's a huge favorite tomorrow like i think probably north carolina is a really big favorite tomorrow arkansas who i would not lay the runs with which we talked about with colin wilson already team that likes to win games 2-1 every single time uh virginia is a big favorite tomorrow if you wanted an upset i'll go out of order uh just in terms of the difference between the teams you know from listening to the show that jake and i both don't think virginia is particularly good versus last year's team they're still nationally seated uh they're still rated like they're pretty good but you look under the hood and it looks pretty rough versus how they looked last year and that doesn't mean they have to lose here but pen was really really feisty in last year's tournament got to the regional final so has some tournament experience now this team is not as good as last year's team so this is not like don't expect to see this is like oral roberts don't expect to see the same thing just difference between the teams if you wanted like a big price that actually has some chance a lot of these don't in my opinion um that's one where the difference between the teams doesn't look like as big as how the market has it where virginia is about minus 800 to win the game tomorrow and pan about five to one six to one depending on where you go uh i would expect virginia to win just like is that the right difference between these two i don't like virginia if you can't tell i don't like virginia very much i think mississippi state's going to win that region and i bet on that so there's like kind of like an upset pick just hey if you want it i see all these games if there's a is there a huge price that actually has a chance in my opinion uh that would be it and then i mean the other one would be to bet against Arkansas if you wanted to just because this is the style that they like to they like to play these 2-1-3-2 games now I don't want to do that tomorrow like I I'm I'm less in on that probably than most people Arkansas is hosting the regional I have them rated so much better than Virginia as a comparison but like that would be another team where they kind of like to play with their food a little bit play close games play low scoring games so upset wise that's kind of what I would go with just like huge price that I think has the remotest chance of hitting I don't expect it to hit but that's kind of not the point uh actual bets like bets that i am more interested in making southern miss we talked about a lot yesterday uh they're about minus 155 minus 160 against indiana i like that price um would play that up a lot no not a lot more but like to 200 probably something like that just for my with my numbers um i think duke is actually still not right and everyone's been betting them and everyone like everyone's on this now and they're to less than minus 300 against UConn tomorrow, and I think there's a way bigger difference between the teams than that. So we'll see. We'll see how that goes. I like Louisiana Tech against Kansas State. They opened about minus 135, minus 140. That's probably one of the biggest differences I have tomorrow. I like Dallas Baptist, anything under minus 200 against West Virginia. And the last one I have, it was something in that same price range. Oh, if you want a dog, like a really small dog tomorrow, but one that I think it really has a chance to win, UNC Wilmington. against Georgia Tech. Tech favored in the game. This is a region in Athens, so not home field advantage, but not a lot of travel involved for Georgia Tech, obviously, to go to Athens to play the game. But for Wilmington, I guess you could make the same argument. Georgia Tech opened a favorite in the game. Wilmington's like plus 105, plus 110. That would be like a really, really, really small priced upset where I would make that game more flippy or even Wilmington a really small favorite. So that's another one that stands out. And then last one, and then Jake, we can get one from you or seven or whatever a comment from you on the rest of the games including arizona grand canyon i like san diego i like the price is not great to win the region they're in a region with oregon fresno and then ucsb hosts the region the the price on san diego to win the region is pretty short they're like i think in i got circa i think they were under two to one to win the region now and i when i did my work i was like oh i'm gonna get a really good price on san diego nope hasn't happened at all i will say like them a lot against oregon they open minus 130 um oregon one of those teams that's like made the college world series made they make the world series of the super last year made a deep run last year i think they were the team that lost to oral roberts in the super um not as good as last year rating down numbers down still rated maybe feisty because of what happened last year san diego uh i think should be a bigger favorite in this game so i like them as well so a lot to shoot on there obviously but just kind of some rapid fire jeremy just because we've been we've spent you haven't been on the show we've spent so much time doing this tournament and have been like waiting for these like salivating for these markets”
West Virginia 4, Dallas Baptist 1 — West Virginia defeated Dallas Baptist 4-1 in the Tucson Regional opener (ESPN box score).
“Hopefully we don't have to add anybody else. It would be great. Just watch A&M somehow trip over themselves, which probably won't happen. I think they're going to win their region really easily. uh and yeah but maybe it's just those two duke's got good upside they have a really good team profile and tennessee's the best team and they're priced similarly to other teams that i don't think they're actually that close to and maybe i'll be wrong but uh but we'll kind of see how that goes to start we can always add more change what we want to do but i i like the idea of having both of those teams entering the tournament feel very safe having both of those teams entering the tournament um at least the process behind them was safe and i kind of we'll see what happens Jake, before we went to break there in the third hour, I just wanted to, I mean, all the money line prices are open for a winner of the games tomorrow. Double elimination for people who don't know how the group stage works. So, you know, if you like Tennessee and the upset of all upsets happen tomorrow, Northern Kentucky is about 8-1 to win the game tomorrow against Tennessee. You know, even if that happens, Tennessee's not out. It's not like March Madness where it's single elimination. Just wanted to say that. I know people that follow the sport are like, duh. but just like worth noting there um i'll kind of go next with just here are a few bets that i like for tomorrow and then if jake has anything else so we can kind of go back and forth here i know jake i'll save arizona grand canyon jake and talk about that uh one of the last games of the night and why he likes maybe a lot of games in that night session which i think are really interesting a few things that stand out to me tomorrow are going to be some of these two threes uh so there are four seeds in each region one two three four one plays four two plays three that's how we start uh and then as i mentioned double elimination um some of these two threes i think is always where you'll get the most interesting pricing right you'll always get something like mid ones on the favorite and and coming back the other way on the dog minus 150 130 minus 160 140 like this is typically where you see markets more like this as opposed to some of the blowout one seed games where you maybe want to lay seven runs or take seven runs uh with a game like tennessee or you know who's a huge favorite tomorrow like i think probably north carolina is a really big favorite tomorrow arkansas who i would not lay the runs with which we talked about with colin wilson already team that likes to win games 2-1 every single time uh virginia is a big favorite tomorrow if you wanted an upset i'll go out of order uh just in terms of the difference between the teams you know from listening to the show that jake and i both don't think virginia is particularly good versus last year's team they're still nationally seated uh they're still rated like they're pretty good but you look under the hood and it looks pretty rough versus how they looked last year and that doesn't mean they have to lose here but pen was really really feisty in last year's tournament got to the regional final so has some tournament experience now this team is not as good as last year's team so this is not like don't expect to see this is like oral roberts don't expect to see the same thing just difference between the teams if you wanted like a big price that actually has some chance a lot of these don't in my opinion um that's one where the difference between the teams doesn't look like as big as how the market has it where virginia is about minus 800 to win the game tomorrow and pan about five to one six to one depending on where you go uh i would expect virginia to win just like is that the right difference between these two i don't like virginia if you can't tell i don't like virginia very much i think mississippi state's going to win that region and i bet on that so there's like kind of like an upset pick just hey if you want it i see all these games if there's a is there a huge price that actually has a chance in my opinion uh that would be it and then i mean the other one would be to bet against Arkansas if you wanted to just because this is the style that they like to they like to play these 2-1-3-2 games now I don't want to do that tomorrow like I I'm I'm less in on that probably than most people Arkansas is hosting the regional I have them rated so much better than Virginia as a comparison but like that would be another team where they kind of like to play with their food a little bit play close games play low scoring games so upset wise that's kind of what I would go with just like huge price that I think has the remotest chance of hitting I don't expect it to hit but that's kind of not the point uh actual bets like bets that i am more interested in making southern miss we talked about a lot yesterday uh they're about minus 155 minus 160 against indiana i like that price um would play that up a lot no not a lot more but like to 200 probably something like that just for my with my numbers um i think duke is actually still not right and everyone's been betting them and everyone like everyone's on this now and they're to less than minus 300 against UConn tomorrow, and I think there's a way bigger difference between the teams than that. So we'll see. We'll see how that goes. I like Louisiana Tech against Kansas State. They opened about minus 135, minus 140. That's probably one of the biggest differences I have tomorrow. I like Dallas Baptist, anything under minus 200 against West Virginia. And the last one I have, it was something in that same price range. Oh, if you want a dog, like a really small dog tomorrow, but one that I think it really has a chance to win, UNC Wilmington. against Georgia Tech. Tech favored in the game. This is a region in Athens, so not home field advantage, but not a lot of travel involved for Georgia Tech, obviously, to go to Athens to play the game. But for Wilmington, I guess you could make the same argument. Georgia Tech opened a favorite in the game. Wilmington's like plus 105, plus 110. That would be like a really, really, really small priced upset where I would make that game more flippy or even Wilmington a really small favorite. So that's another one that stands out. And then last one, and then Jake, we can get one from you or seven or whatever a comment from you on the rest of the games including arizona grand canyon i like san diego i like the price is not great to win the region they're in a region with oregon fresno and then ucsb hosts the region the the price on san diego to win the region is pretty short they're like i think in i got circa i think they were under two to one to win the region now and i when i did my work i was like oh i'm gonna get a really good price on san diego nope hasn't happened at all i will say like them a lot against oregon they open minus 130 um oregon one of those teams that's like made the college world series made they make the world series of the super last year made a deep run last year i think they were the team that lost to oral roberts in the super um not as good as last year rating down numbers down still rated maybe feisty because of what happened last year san diego uh i think should be a bigger favorite in this game so i like them as well so a lot to shoot on there obviously but just kind of some rapid fire jeremy just because we've been we've spent you haven't been on the show we've spent so much time doing this tournament and have been like waiting for these like salivating for these markets”
UNC Wilmington 9, Georgia Tech 0 — UNC Wilmington defeated Georgia Tech 9-0 in the Athens Regional opener (ESPN box score).
“And then last one, and then Jake, we can get one from you or seven or whatever a comment from you on the rest of the games including arizona grand canyon i like san diego i like the price is not great to win the region they're in a region with oregon fresno and then ucsb hosts the region the the price on san diego to win the region is pretty short they're like i think in i got circa i think they were under two to one to win the region now and i when i did my work i was like oh i'm gonna get a really good price on san diego nope hasn't happened at all i will say like them a lot against oregon they open minus 130 um oregon one of those teams that's like made the college world series made they make the world series of the super last year made a deep run last year i think they were the team that lost to oral roberts in the super um not as good as last year rating down numbers down still rated maybe feisty because of what happened last year san diego uh i think should be a bigger favorite in this game so i like them as well so a lot to shoot on there obviously but just kind of some rapid fire jeremy just because we've been we've spent you haven't been on the show we've spent so much time doing this tournament and have been like waiting for these like salivating for these markets”
Oregon 5, San Diego 4 — Oregon defeated San Diego 5-4 in their regional opener (ESPN box score).
“great uh thanks jake i i think i did the the money line parlay this who the hell is gonna lose this is like a this is like one of those monster teasers during football season yeah tennessee now go ahead that's yours tennessee no you i'm gonna i'm just gonna bet the money line minus 1500 you put 1500 on it and you know what you know i'm gonna watch it uh acrashure stadium whatever the hell stupid company that is hopefully they don't sponsor the show toys are a stadium yeah just uh yeah blockbuster circuit oh man there was a really really really bad joke that i could have made there which i which i'm glad i didn't uh tennessee yeah east carolina so this is eight legs we'll call this the spider tennessee east carolina florida state georgia oklahoma state a&m wake and mississippi state i'll read those one more time so this is a money line i i don't know what this pays whatever it pays is going to be a bet uh because i want to do at least one of these tennessee east carolina maybe i will put duke in this tennessee east carolina florida state Georgia Oklahoma State A&M Wake Mississippi State I think I'm going to put Duke in also I don't think they're going to lose to UConn tomorrow so that'll be a nine to be a niner little nine bagger for everybody I don't know what that pays because I just came up with it right now but whatever that pays I'll put it in for a couple bucks there's a fun before the run lines come out before we bet the region winners before we bet Tennessee too aggressively to win the tournament that'll be pretty fun all right good stuff man so bet your parlays accordingly”
Of the nine legs, Duke lost to UConn 4-1 and Wake Forest lost to VCU 1-0, busting the parlay; the other seven legs (Tennessee, East Carolina, Florida State, Georgia, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Mississippi State) all won (ESPN box scores). (Losing legs: Duke (lost to UConn 4-1), Wake Forest (lost to VCU 1-0))
“i do like the under again it has gotten it actually hasn't gotten bet a ton it was heavily juiced under five and a half basically every game in this series in which there has not been an insane like 24-hour turnaround has gone under and we've had a lot of fives we have three two overtimes two one overtimes panthers won three nothing in game one only the game where we had to turn around on like no rest and play a three o'clock afternoon game that was the only game that got loose every other game has followed the same pattern we've got the under in game five and game four at one uh under five and a half i want the five and a half like you don't they'll be like well five is plus be like nah gotta add some three twos uh and i think you want three two especially the way these series have gone with the games going to overtime so much so under in tonight's game and then if you want just like a couple bucks on something this is way way way narrative but it's just like one of those things i think is fun and hey you want like a big price maybe it's like a fun thing that comes in tonight one of the big storylines talking points that came out of game four was an incident between chris crider and matthew kachuk obviously like maddie kachuk one of the like biggest names on florida's team crider has been like an all-time postseason player for the rangers in his career but krider has had a miserable see i mean as bad of a series basically as you can have as a hockey especially as like a top performing hockey player guy who like hangs around around the net all the time tips in pucks uh had a great postseason last year against the devils where he like scored a bunch of goals in one of the games um had a natural hat trick earlier in the playoffs i think if i remember correctly the third period against carolina in one of the series i think i got that right um has not played very well took the mouth guard out of matthew kachuk's matthew kachuk kind of does the steph curry where like the mouth guards like constantly hanging out of his mouth and krider basically grabs it and throws it i saw somebody tweet it if it actually gone into the stands he could have gotten like penalized for it and it was actually like it could have been like a big thing but it didn't or something there was something where like it actually could have been an even bigger deal and i just thought it was a funny piece of video i don't know about any of that stuff but uh kachuk told him like that's the best thing you've done all series or all game or something and like home game tonight like an like a guy who showed up huge in a big spot for them in the last series. And this is not the series or not the season, but like a really, really big game. I don't think there's going to be a lot of goals tonight because that's the way the series has gone. Crider to score the first goal of the game. Also, the Panthers are terrible in first periods. Their whole thing is they get way better as the game goes along. They are a tear for how good they are a miserable first period team. Crider to score the first goal tonight. So figure like home crowd, you get a bump right out of the gate. Panthers bad in the first period.”
Florida 3, New York 2 — Florida beat New York 3-2, five total goals, under the 5.5 total (ESPN box score).
“this guy is like the butt of every joke right now i mean krider's like 13 to 1 to score the first goal of the game in a game where they're not may not be me you might have to wait to the second period to get the first goal in this game i think so just think that's fun for a couple bucks like you know this is what you'll say handicap you're like well that doesn't sound very math driven spoiler alert it's not there's like here's a couple bucks on something fun just based on something that happened in the previous game and to be fair the way a lot of the games have gone in the series which is the rangers playing better earlier and then the panthers eventually suffocating them holding them to no shots on goal second and third periods uh and the game kind of like meandering into overtime where crazy stuff has happened so under and cryder to score the first goal uh i hope the panthers win but as we know these things have kind of been down to the wire and then nba do we know if lively's playing yet true game time decision still right yeah this is”
Chris Kreider scored the game's opening goal in the first period, assisted by Mika Zibanejad (ESPN play-by-play). (First goal: Chris Kreider)
“and i have bet a little bit of Masyn Winn and we talked about it on the show and his prices dropped”
Paul Skenes (Pirates), not Masyn Winn, won the 2024 National League Rookie of the Year award. (2024 NL Rookie of the Year: Paul Skenes)
“uh i bet i mean i bet them to win the stanley cup like you know what is it like a broken clock is right twice a day or something it's like well that's as often as i'm betting them to win the same i mean it's just it's like every six hours i should just set an alarm on my phone like click more buttons um so that's not stopping i bet more after game one i bet more after game six against boston i bet more after game five against boston like none of that's changing and like i i think i have something here and i think i have an edge versus the market which is still pricing this like yeah they're the most likely but and we even have some of the lookaheads maybe you'd be surprised uh dallas would have home ice against florida actually because i i think i even said earlier this week i i didn't know who would have home ice if they played some of these lookaheads are out dallas would be a small favorite against florida in the sanley cup i bet the crap out of florida and that look ahead already which was taking pretty big limits um edmonton would be a small dog florida would have home ice i think it was florida 130 135 click click click click click click click click click Like, I think when we get to that round, that's not how we're going to think about this team.”
4-3 — Florida Panthers won the 2024 Stanley Cup, defeating Edmonton 4-3 in the Final (Wikipedia 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs).
“have something here and i think i have an edge versus the market which is still pricing this like yeah they're the most likely but and we even have some of the lookaheads maybe you'd be surprised uh dallas would have home ice against florida actually because i i think i even said earlier this week i i didn't know who would have home ice if they played some of these lookaheads are out dallas would be a small favorite against florida in the sanley cup i bet the crap out of florida and that look ahead already which was taking pretty big limits um edmonton would be a small dog florida would have home ice i think it was florida 130 135 click click click click click click click click click Like, I think when we get to that round, that's not how we're going to think about this team.”
4-2 — Dallas lost the West finals to Edmonton 4-2, so the Florida-Dallas Stanley Cup Final lookahead matchup never materialized; this specific-matchup bet is void (Wikipedia 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs).
“but uh i'm gonna play yeah i'm gonna play a couple horford unders i'm gonna play the under on points and then there's a juice under two and a half on made threes this is like famous last words you shot like 11 threes like he's gassed he's awful if anything the minutes go down if anything the usage goes down it was like the perfect setup for him to do what he did and uh and maybe cornet plays a little bit more maybe they do anything else maybe the defensive adjustment isn't exactly the same and he's not always the guy that's just 70 feet between me and the basket maybe he doesn't shoot the ball in that situation too by the way um i don't know just like i'm gonna play the al horford gas props i'm gonna play the i'm gonna play the unders and uh and it's worth noting if you missed mike gallagher's interview earlier just because we're getting close to game time here uh liked tatum to go over a lot but he had a he had a really a chance to have 30 plus and have a really big game tonight which which makes a lot of sense if you watched game one like yes missed a bunch of shots also like got to the rim a lot got fouled a lot and then obviously had a huge overtime period maybe that kind of gets him going a little bit in the uh in the series so like like mike's Thought he had a couple other props people can listen to in terms of what he expects in the game.”
Al Horford made 0 three-pointers (0-for-1) in Game 2 of the East finals, under his 2.5 line (ESPN box score). (Al Horford 0 three-pointers)
“Edmonton would be a small dog. Florida would have home ice. I think it was Florida 130, 135. Click, click, click, click, click, click, click, click, click.”
4-3 — Florida defeated Edmonton 4-3 to win the 2024 Stanley Cup Final (Wikipedia 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs).
“I don't even think we've talked about this on the show. I bet him for a tiny amount of money to win NL Comeback Player of the Year because he's by far the most likely winner at this point in the season, more than his price. The limits are very, very low. but but it was really fun to bet him because i just like comeback players of the year i just think it's really fun i like and jake and i were talking about the a01 over the weekend because we were thinking about betting jack flaherty and i actually think alec minoan might win now if he ends up like staying on this trajectory of not being the worst pitcher of all time seems like”
Chris Sale won the 2024 National League Comeback Player of the Year award, going on to a Triple Crown (ERA, strikeouts, wins) season for Atlanta (Wikipedia, citing MLB award announcement). (Winner: Chris Sale)
“It's Friday, so this is hyperbolic. Famous last words. i think this is one of my favorite bets of the entire nba playoffs is the knicks plus the points tonight i just i i just really like the setup here so market for games three and four was a little different you might be like oh like reduced price like why would you like to bet the knicks like they were a bigger dog in game three and then game four there was about this a little more than this i think the perception is like oh well all the games in indiana indiana will win because they won game three and game four game three they were down 2-0 totally different setup motivation wise than what we have in this game like 2-0 the 2-0 kind of history is well documented like the 3-2 history not not quite the same uh so game three the market was kind of driven by 2-0 pacers and game four was driven by the fatigue tight turnaround no rest for new york they end up getting smoked in the game there's there's multiple days off between games in the series for the first time they did like they did they last played on tuesday yeah that couldn't help the knicks more this is like a very good setup for new york to win this is a way better setup for them to win this game than game seven probably which will be on sunday like it's just you got the extra day of rest in this game this is the all-in game like you got yeah i think you kind of have to win this game if you're them what do you have left on sunday and nobody's probably still not going to play i i get what like the market's really similar to game four but the setup is not remotely the same from a time off standpoint and i think this is one of those series where if you have the extra day between games it heavily favors one team over another because of the small rotation that they play so i this is like look this is not like the nuggets to win the title we're not talking like that level of bet just like as an individual game bet i really like the knicks tonight so i'm gonna bet um i actually i'm gonna bet the money line too i think they're gonna win i totally agree with you love it uh any quick thoughts before we get into the nhl we got about two and a half minutes”
116-103 — Indiana defeated New York 116-103 in Game 6 on May 17, 2024, eliminating the Knicks; the Knicks moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“Colorado. I agree on I'm not betting the game. I haven't bet almost any game in that series. I think I would bet Dallas if I had to. I like the under 5.5 in the Panthers-Bruins game. I think Swamin stands on his head again. I think it's a 2-1 kind of a game. It makes me extremely nervous. Marchand's going to probably play for the Bruins tonight, which is a huge deal. It didn't play in the last couple games. Obviously an impactful player for them. I was hoping that would drive the market down enough that I could bet Florida and feel really good about it, like a 125-130. Oh, Marchand's playing. Like 125-130. It just hasn't happened. There's just too much like Florida in this series and like them in these games to get a really good price on. So hope they win. Don't love the price. Like the under. I think you still get a really good Swamin' game.”
2-1 — Florida beat Boston 2-1 in Game 6 on May 17, 2024; the combined total of 3 goals is under 5.5 (ESPN box score).
“quick because now we're going to load in a minute i would betting on the three lemon muffin who i believe the listed jockey is Flavian Pratt who's like one of the best jockeys on earth and the price is good and the post-time favorite like never wins so I'll take the basically the second choice I'll go Lemon Muffin the three uh Peach why don't you go next and we'll go around the horn I'll go with the five Gun Song Ken because as soon as you read out that name I thought of Gunner Henderson and we're in Baltimore and I just took a Gun Song Gunner Henderson parlay for Gunner to win AL MVP. Oh, nice. Let's ride. He is the favorite. So let's go. Gun song. I got the five. Yeah, guns up. Alex, who are you on to win the Black Eyed Susan? I'm taking the number eight horse, Recharge, just because eight's one of my lucky numbers. There you go. Alex is on Recharge. He is seven to two to win the race. Mike Brown, who do you like in the Black Eyed Susan? PJ, I'll take Corposo because the name sounds cool. Corposo. It is Corposo is a really cool name.”
Gun Song won the 2024 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes at Pimlico on May 17, 2024; Lemon Muffin did not win (Wikipedia, citing official race results). (Winner: Gun Song)
“you're you're betting props or you're just thinking about who's going to take the most shots if conley's out last game edwards just like his usage is going to go down like they're just going to try to get the ball out of his hands a lot and if conley plays it's not that edwards has to play well just you would assume the amount of possessions that end with a shot attempt from edwards go way back up because conley's playing again so i don't know if edwards is going to score a lot but he's going to take a ton of shots and i do think in kind of like a back against the wall game like i think this is like i think this is he's like i got it i think this is one of those for anthony edwards so i don think they going to win i actually think denver going to win the game edwards is 29 and a half 28 and a half depending on like how you want to do the juice like 20 and a half over 29 and a half under uh i am going to play absolutely an over once we know for sure conley is playing i play the over on anthony edwards points game like i you know do i want to bet denver or do i just want to like pray that they advance so i don't have to sweat a game seven i could kind of go either way on that one but i like edwards over a lot i like edwards over two and a half three pointers so kind of scene eye to eye with you. Both of the”
Anthony Edwards scored 27 points for Minnesota in Game 6 on May 16, below 29.5. (Edwards: 27 points)
“you're you're betting props or you're just thinking about who's going to take the most shots if conley's out last game edwards just like his usage is going to go down like they're just going to try to get the ball out of his hands a lot and if conley plays it's not that edwards has to play well just you would assume the amount of possessions that end with a shot attempt from edwards go way back up because conley's playing again so i don't know if edwards is going to score a lot but he's going to take a ton of shots and i do think in kind of like a back against the wall game like i think this is like i think this is he's like i got it i think this is one of those for anthony edwards so i don think they going to win i actually think denver going to win the game edwards is 29 and a half 28 and a half depending on like how you want to do the juice like 20 and a half over 29 and a half under uh i am going to play absolutely an over once we know for sure conley is playing i play the over on anthony edwards points game like i you know do i want to bet denver or do i just want to like pray that they advance so i don't have to sweat a game seven i could kind of go either way on that one but i like edwards over a lot i like edwards over two and a half three pointers so kind of scene eye to eye with you. Both of the”
Anthony Edwards made 4 three-pointers for Minnesota in Game 6 on May 16, clearing 2.5. (Edwards: 4 made threes)
“And I actually think there's like a pretty good case for the fever in this game, just because I don't I don't think the Liberty's form is particularly good. As somebody who I swear to God, watch the entire Mystics game. I really think the Mystics are the worst team in the league. And the fact that they were able to hang for that long with like not outlier shooting splits is like, I think, really troubling. And I think Indiana can show up with way more than Washington showed up with.”
102-66 — New York defeated Indiana 102-66 on May 16, a 36-point margin, so Indiana +8.5 did not cover.
“So I go back and forth in terms of the side. And I actually think there's like a pretty good case for the fever in this game, just because I don't I don't think the Liberty's form is particularly good. As somebody who I swear to God, watch the entire Mystics game. I really think the Mystics are the worst team in the league. And the fact that they were able to hang for that long with like not outlier shooting splits is like, I think, really troubling. And I think Indiana can show up with way more than Washington showed up with. Now, maybe outlier performance for the Liberty. They're going to kind of they they turn the ball over too much. they did some other things that were not particularly good maybe that changes i kind of like the liberty tonight i know they got absolutely trucked by connecticut uh so not only do i like the fever and the game i think i think the fever is the bet for me in the game i think clark can play way better in this game this isn't just playing a bounce back connecticut was perfectly suit i went back and looked at this after because i liked so many other games that night we didn't even talk about the fever game we did the other three games and we got them all right basically um i lost the total in that other game by a half point but we won the other two anyway um i looked like all right was there something about connecticut that was just like and i didn't i didn't go into a lot of detail on was it a really bad matchup and it was connecticut but at least last year and they kept a lot of their core together for this year so i'm gonna i think last year and this year are comparable they were like by far the best team at forcing turnovers clark had 10 turnovers in the game they are by far one of the best three-point defenses in the wnba i think they were the best three-point defense in the wnba last year clark took a ton of threes but had like a lot of difficult shots had trouble scoring efficiently okay this seems like a really physical team i drove to the basket a couple times got nailed like this was i think that was the worst case scenario for the liberty don't have any the liberty a great defensive team they're a great defensive team in the paint they're a great two-point defensive team but on the perimeter they're pretty average they don't they don't turn you over almost at all they let you kind of do whatever you want and they're gonna they're gonna guard the paint and you wanted to take a bunch of threes great guess who took 11 threes caitlin clark like i actually think this sets up pretty awesome for her to at least score a little bit more she basically hit her points prop like almost on the number last game she went under by the hook which a lot of people had 20 and a half and she scored 20 it's 20 and a half again the total in the game is very high she's a home game this is not just a bounce back i think it's opponent driven honestly i like her overs tonight i think this change scores 30 i think there's a change she makes a ton of threes i think this sets up pretty well for her i think it sets up well for them to be competitive at least against the I don't know if they're going to win, but 8.5 is a pretty big number.”
Caitlin Clark scored 9 points in her WNBA home debut on May 16, below 20.5. (Clark: 9 points)
“I totally agree. We are theory in the series. Well, I think we've even done every game so far. I'm with you. Like, I feel like I've gotten every game in the series right, too, for the most part. And we've done it on the show. Anytime the Rangers are going to be this price in a game against Carolina in any game, I'm betting on them. And it went great so far. So, like, we're going to do it. We're back to this market again. We're back to the game one, game two market. Sorry, back to the three, four market. Excuse me. Like, let's do it. Like, Rangers at this kind of number. I mean, this is like they were dogging some of the home games, too. The difference between the teams is incredibly small. So whenever the market's different, I play that team. That's how we've been doing this, basically, for the most part. And tonight it's the Rangers, so I totally agree with you.”
5-3 — The Rangers defeated Carolina 5-3 in Game 6 on May 16, so the New York moneyline won.
“Tyler had some great stuff there, but he also knows way more than I do. I bet on two golfers to win this tournament. I did the obligatory – this is the player's championship strategy. strategy which might work depending on who wins the nba in the stately cup title and yukon won so we uh we we people might have scheffler players championship rolling into some some really fun stuff here uh scheffler nuggets panthers that's like just how is that parlay not in everyone's account this weekend how's it not then you got a little something on scheffler you could bet whoever you won this tournament this is a way to play scheffler and you're playing with like the two teams that make me a lot of money and make me filthy rich and will now make you really a lot richer which would be great if they win which maybe they won't but it'd be fun so what the rest of the way in terms of just like straight up just to win I like the price on Morikawa played really really well at the Masters has been playing really well recently reconciled with his swing coach has major championship form in his back class won the PGA championship before it kind of the guy who breaks like the distance driving like requirements on the big boy courses where kapka plays well and sheffler plays well and rory plays well so um morikawa just kind of made some sense to me and he in form and he's a major winner two-time major winner so that's kind of all i'm going with here sheffler and some parlays i might throw rory in one just because if he wins i'm just gonna be really mad that i have no exposure whatsoever but uh other than that just morikawa for me peach love it love it a lot of great stuff there can't wait for it to start gonna wake up”
Xander Schauffele won the 2024 PGA Championship at -21; Collin Morikawa tied for 4th at -15. (Schauffele -21 (win); Morikawa T4 -15)
“The risk of not talking for like six straight minutes, why don't we go sport by sport here with the two of us? Because I think we both have some kind of interesting opinions on the games tonight. Why don't we do NBA first, Paige? I think we, well, I know you like the Knicks and Six, so I think we're going to be on the same side here. I don't know if there's a game tonight that's behaving like the Celtics game where you had this crazy injury that caused this crazy market movement. And everybody was just trying to grab, grab, grab, grab, grab the Celtics. And you wait and bet the opposite side. That's not exactly what's happening with Knicks Pacers. But just, I mean, you are getting a tremendous discount versus the first two games of the series because New York is so injured. Because, like, even the players that are playing for them are clearly fatigued. they also didn't play the fourth quarter and had you know and there was an early game so this is about as good as it's going to get in terms of fatigue playing a home game coming back off a terrible loss uh and the market moving hard the opposite way not the same as last night but yeah i mean now that the knicks are like one there's a pick on the board in this game uh knicks i don't know if waiting till the last second gets you the best number uh but i like them i don't have a strong opinion on t wolves nuggets i obviously want the nuggets to win desperately big thing to follow in that game is mike conley gonna be anything questionable with what i believe was an achilles injury but questionable for the game figure he probably plays because it's the playoffs and these guys have with the questionable tags play almost every time um but even if he does what does that look like does that mean you want to bet overs on somebody else edwards probably wants point way more in that situation because they probably don't want to play somebody off their bench they played a three big lineup against denver which was pretty interesting does go bear play the max in this game there are lots of questions rotation wise i want denver to win i'll be cheering my brains out for them, but I just, I agree with this market. So NBA wise, Peej, just the Knicks for me tonight. Are you the same?”
Knicks 121, Pacers 91 — Knicks beat the Pacers 121-91 in Game 5 on May 14, 2024; the Knicks moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“what do i think that means i think just the plus one and a half on boston you get a really good price now to just play a competitive game against florida maybe it takes overtime maybe it doesn't florida did get a lot of really good breaks they have outplayed boston significantly like make no mistake but just like look at the closing prices look at kind of the progression of the series this feels like it's just it's too far honestly so i like the plus one and a half on the bruins uh and then everyone thinks the oilers are going to even the series tonight and i'm just like are we just going to keep doing this is this just what this is going to be um i mean i like the canucks every which way i bet them a lot in the series have the series for a good amount we've talked about it a lot on the show um you can play the plus one and a half if you want i think it might be such a high scoring game i don't even know if that's that valuable but i think you get the canucks at this kind of a price in a series where they have an advantage over the other team where they beat them a lot in the regular season you take it you figure it out will be a small bet because i have them in the series anyway you're kind of playing the same thing bruins plus one and a half Canucks to win.”
2-1 — Bruins beat the Panthers 2-1 in Game 5 on May 14, 2024, an outright win, so Boston +1.5 covered (ESPN box score).
“I like two things, actually. One a little more than the other. I just, you know, you try to be mindful of, has the market moved really strongly towards something that just isn't really how the games have played out or isn't how the markets have closed in these games. And look, yeah, I want Florida to win this game. Of course I want Florida to win this game. With every fiber of my being, this just isn't what they closed in the first two games. And it can't just all be because Marchand isn't playing tonight. There's just some extra here because they've just walloped them so badly. And I get that, but there's no way Florida 210-220 is a good bet tonight. I find that very hard to believe based on what we saw at the closing prices. what do i think that means i think just the plus one and a half on boston you get a really good price now to just play a competitive game against florida maybe it takes overtime maybe it doesn't florida did get a lot of really good breaks they have outplayed boston significantly like make no mistake but just like look at the closing prices look at kind of the progression of the series this feels like it's just it's too far honestly so i like the plus one and a half on the bruins uh and then everyone thinks the oilers are going to even the series tonight and i'm just like are we just going to keep doing this is this just what this is going to be um i mean i like the canucks every which way i bet them a lot in the series have the series for a good amount we've talked about it a lot on the show um you can play the plus one and a half if you want i think it might be such a high scoring game i don't even know if that's that valuable but i think you get the canucks at this kind of a price in a series where they have an advantage over the other team where they beat them a lot in the regular season you take it you figure it out will be a small bet because i have them in the series anyway you're kind of playing the same thing bruins plus one and a half Canucks to win. That's me”
3-2 — Oilers beat the Canucks 3-2 in Game 4 on May 14, 2024, so the Canucks moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“I like the under in Liberty Mystics. We like the under on Washington's win total.”
85-80 — Liberty beat the Mystics 85-80 on May 14, 2024; the combined 165 points went over the 164.5 total, so the under lost (ESPN box score).
“What do you like tonight? It's really tempting to just say fever money line, and I just want to cheer for Kaitlin Clark. It's really tempting to say that. I like the under in Liberty Mystics. We like the under on Washington's win total. They also project to have the worst offense in the wnba by far this year their best player will be on a minutes limit in this game 164 and a half seems maybe the liberty to score 120 i don't know i like the under in that game uh and then i like dogs in the late games uh i don't i seattle has built this super team great let's see it for five games before we see something like seven and a half against the team that was pretty good last year that got better uh so i like seven and a half on the links i actually think they could win that game and then i i think you have something happening here it's like first game out with grinder why we bet this stuff in the nba why wouldn't we bet at the opposite does anybody want the mercury in tonight's game anybody at all price balloon 17 on ring night who would want fan grinder is not playing who would want phoenix and the market just moves aggressively toward vegas too first game without the star tarrasi is actually going to play she's going to play about half the season 17 on the mercury so dogs in the late games links and mercury and i like the under and liberty mystics love that wanted to get involved with caitlin clark i'm taking her over”
83-70 — Lynx beat the Storm 83-70 on May 14, 2024, a 13-point margin, so Minnesota +7.5 covered (ESPN box score).
“What do you like tonight? It's really tempting to just say fever money line, and I just want to cheer for Kaitlin Clark. It's really tempting to say that. I like the under in Liberty Mystics. We like the under on Washington's win total. They also project to have the worst offense in the wnba by far this year their best player will be on a minutes limit in this game 164 and a half seems maybe the liberty to score 120 i don't know i like the under in that game uh and then i like dogs in the late games uh i don't i seattle has built this super team great let's see it for five games before we see something like seven and a half against the team that was pretty good last year that got better uh so i like seven and a half on the links i actually think they could win that game and then i i think you have something happening here it's like first game out with grinder why we bet this stuff in the nba why wouldn't we bet at the opposite does anybody want the mercury in tonight's game anybody at all price balloon 17 on ring night who would want fan grinder is not playing who would want phoenix and the market just moves aggressively toward vegas too first game without the star tarrasi is actually going to play she's going to play about half the season 17 on the mercury so dogs in the late games links and mercury and i like the under and liberty mystics love that wanted to get involved with caitlin clark i'm taking her over”
89-80 — Aces beat the Mercury 89-80 on May 14, 2024, a 9-point margin, so Phoenix +17 covered (ESPN box score).
“And the first game, Anderson's obviously going to start again for the Hurricanes because he started in game four and they won, facing elimination. So they saved their season for one game. I think a lot of people expect the Rangers to just put this away. The games have been incredibly close. Multiple games going to overtime. It's just been really tight. And the Rangers are now favored everywhere. And that would make me really nervous in a game where I think the Hurricanes are a little bit better. And every single game has been incredibly close. It's almost like whoever the dog has been in every game, that's the team that I like. And I think tonight, like I bet the Rangers in a couple of games early on in the series. So it's not like it always has to be them. I like the Hurricanes at this number now, even minus 102, minus 105, something like that. So Hurricanes is a bet. If you had to bet Stars-Avs, I would bet the Stars, but I don't really have a lot of interest there.”
Hurricanes 4, Rangers 1 — Hurricanes beat the Rangers 4-1 in Game 5 on May 13, 2024; the Carolina moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“I'm betting Cavs plus 12.”
Celtics 109, Cavaliers 102 — Celtics beat the Cavaliers 109-102 in Game 4 on May 13, 2024, a 7-point margin, so Cavaliers +12 covered (ESPN box score).
“I'm going to take the Knicks tonight. I don't care. Oh, yeah. I'm good on this one. Yeah, we're back up to seven and a half again. Great. Nobody wants this team. no one's gonna play uh they're gonna play five guys 48 minutes awesome Pacer I did this earlier in the series and like in any Pacers game dog of a big number favorite of a big number like however the market's shaped like I'll play the underdog and play for a closer game just because I have the Pacers don't defend at all uh and I'll play Brunson's over if I think that's going to be the case so Knicks to keep it close if they keep it close that means he's playing 48 minutes plays 48 minutes that means he's probably going over this points prop you could do I mean if you're on like parlay plus seven and a half with his over i think if the game's close and he's playing the limit he goes over that number that you worry about a blowout nick's covering means you don't worry about the blowout anymore it means he probably goes over if that happens um so i like that i can't bet nuggets timberwolves i have to just root for denver which is going to be agony because they're probably going to lose but i have some just so on denver i like betting minnesota would be a waste of time just wouldn't make any sense so i i need denver just cross my fingers on that one hockey wise same thing with the panthers worth noting swayman is going to start for the Bruins tonight there was a lot of scuttlebutt about would they go to Olmark after Swayman got pulled in game two no it's Swayman again uh I like the Panthers at this price then if that's going to be the case and now I think Swayman doesn't have as much confidence and he's gassed and they've messed this thing up and everybody's mad and uh they're like 125 to win a game against Boston Florida is so I'll play Florida I'll assume they figured things out in game two uh and then the other game Oilers Canucks the biggest thing in that game if you want to bet it leon drysaitl who's like one of the best skaters for the oilers and the series may not play tonight along with another player but drysaitl is the bigger name so just if you see the market move hard on that game it's probably because he played or didn't play in the game uh i am passing because i think it's possible edmonton gets back in the series i have vancouver to win the series from before so like florida tonight like the knicks like brunson's over and that's it all right um”
106-111 — New York lost Game 3 at Indiana 111-106, a 5-point margin that stayed within the +7.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“that one hockey wise same thing with the panthers worth noting swayman is going to start for the Bruins tonight there was a lot of scuttlebutt about would they go to Olmark after Swayman got pulled in game two no it's Swayman again uh I like the Panthers at this price then if that's going to be the case and now I think Swayman doesn't have as much confidence and he's gassed and they've messed this thing up and everybody's mad and uh they're like 125 to win a game against Boston Florida is so I'll play Florida I'll assume they figured things out in game two uh and then the other game Oilers Canucks the biggest thing in that game if you want to bet it leon drysaitl who's like one of the best skaters for the oilers and the series may not play tonight along with another player but drysaitl is the bigger name so just if you see the market move hard on that game it's probably because he played or didn't play in the game uh i am passing because i think it's possible edmonton gets back in the series i have vancouver to win the series from before so like florida tonight like the knicks like brunson's over and that's it all right um”
6-2 — Florida beat Boston 6-2 in Game 3 behind four power-play goals, so the Panthers moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“if I'm gonna get the Rangers at this price in this series against this team like I have the situation 2-0 3-0 whatever I bet the Rangers in game two and at one I kind of like them in the series and they're doing well uh plus 145 plus 150 I'll play the Rangers again tonight I don't have a strong opinion on Av stars if I had to bet the game uh it's very likely to be Georgiev and Ottinger again in goal I'd probably bet Dallas but I'd not with like any confidence that's more of just like a can't wait to watch that game I think it'll be kind of a banger but I'm just gonna play the rangers i know carolina's been better at home goalie switch i think they're really up against it in this series i think the rangers have played really well so i like them nba uh i don't have a bet on side or total of either game i would love to be like yeah give me the calves again who i bet in game one um and we have two other pieces of nba breaking news by the way and anobi's not gonna play game three for sure and he is unlikely to play game four which kind of gives you an idea of like where we're headed here with him probably uh pacer's still seven seven and a half in game three and nick still a big favorite to win the series about minus 400 and then woge also tweeted about a half hour ago and we were just doing trivia we mentioned this already when frank vogel was fired as the coach of the suns a couple hours ago woge tweeted that budenholzer would be in the mix as a potential replacement and woge has done his classic emerged as a front runner tweet now which he also uh did with ben caro being the number one pick which was always really funny so it looks like maybe we're headed toward mike budenholzer making a return to coach and being the coach of the sons next year which is interesting also they're probably still not going to win so like what are we talking about they'll be one of the lower price teams uh nba what i was going to say go ahead no i was just going to say like i thought there were a couple players they listed as questionable too for the nut like jamal murray uh for the nuggets game denver yeah on friday tomorrow's game murray kcp and reggie jackson okay and then brunson's questionable for the next game right that's correct that's also correct and uh okay and i think i think mike gallagher alluded to this when he came on but in case people are curious jared allen because mike told that anecdote about you know jared allen gave quotes saying he like what do you say you used a shoe to put an elevator button and like couldn't breathe on there like he has a rib injury and uh he will not play tonight in game two i think people probably expected him to not play but just to hammer that in he will not play tonight uh i'll go against mike just because i've been like floating it for three days that i was going to play against tatum at a big number because he hasn't done anything in the playoffs so far i'll play his points under and i will go against the guy who like wins props every time but i just uh i make tatum prove it in a game that like also doesn't matter again like let's uh you know great play his overs against the knicks when the games actually matter and when they have to play well uh so i'll play his under and then I am going to play Luka's points under I kind of want to play his threes under too but uh the Mavs can still be competitive but I think for them to be competitive Kyrie and then PJ Washington probably both have to play really well in the game because it's just like doesn't look like it's happening right now he could get to the line a bunch that seems more like a game three thing when they're down oh two and he gets a bunch of calls I don't I don't know if he's gonna have like this is a 40 point 35 point game for Luka tonight so I'll play Tatum under and I'll play Luka under points and maybe under threes also nothing side or total for either game though jake you got”
3-2 — Artemi Panarin scored 1:43 into overtime as the Rangers beat the Hurricanes 3-2 in Game 3, so the Rangers moneyline won (ESPN recap).
“I think DiVincenzo's killing the series.”
Donte DiVincenzo scored 28 points as the Knicks beat the Pacers 130-121 in Game 2 on May 8, 2024, clearing 17.5 (ESPN box score). (DiVincenzo: 28 points)
“If I had to bet the game, I'd probably still bet Indiana. I like a couple player props in that game. And try not to be prisoner of the moment, prisoner of game one. I think DiVincenzo's killing the series. I think he's going to have a huge game in every single game, basically. And he played really, really well in game one. now you're not getting a break on the price at all 17 and a half and the total for this game is pretty high versus most knicks games because of who they're playing against i like his over again and i just this is uh this will just be for a couple bucks and it's really because i don't have a strong opinion on the game tonight um i like indiana a little but i don't love the number like brunson's 37 and a half again like what are we like i just at some like at some point familiarity now maybe they play him a little differently like they do it's rick carlisle do something i don't know i just i'm gonna bet brunson's under and at a minimum i actually think it's a really i think it's one of the most probably the most fun under sweats because it's like not possible for you to lose it until the fourth quarter it's too high of a number for you to lose it before then he literally like has to be awesome the whole game to go over he's always has been like this entire playoffs it's i can't remember a guy typically lined in this range especially a player like this this isn't like lebron in the finals like it's like lebron's points drops 37 and a half and it's like the second meeting between the teams uh game one okay feeling out process no adjustments yet i don't know maybe rick harley has some stuff cooked up to to get him to shoot a little bit less so i'll play dvincenzo over maybe he's the beneficiary of that again and uh and i'll play brunson's under i i think i just this is so stupid because i'm supposed to provide sound analysis i just think it's really good tonight um so i'll put a couple bucks on that no strong opinion on the game would bet the pacers if i had to but”
Jalen Brunson scored 29 points in the Knicks' 130-121 Game 2 win over the Pacers on May 8, 2024, staying under 37.5 (ESPN box score). (Brunson: 29 points)
“you're getting less than you got in game one when we barely won anyway hockey uh i like the canucks to win the series at price i don't think there's as big a difference between the teams as the market does uh so far the team that has won the regular season series is ahead in all three other series that are being played right now colorado who won the regular season series against dallas boston who plays against tonight who won the regular season series 4-0 against florida talk about that a lot uh and the rangers won the season series against carolina and they're up to oh so so far again like it doesn't have to be the only thing that you use but i think you got to know about this okay the canucks swept the oilers in the regular season and they're being completely disregarded um so you can choose look if you want to bet them game by game you want to wait to see if demco comes back great i have them for the series i'm gonna like them in basically every game where they're lined like this so my like who do i like tonight i like the canucks i've just bet them to win the series instead but if you want to bet them to win this game instead or you want away whatever uh that's kind of my thought on that series i would really like the panthers to”
Edmonton eliminated Vancouver with a 3-2 Game 7 win on May 20, 2024, taking the second-round series 4-3; the Canucks-to-win-series pick lost (ESPN).
“at betmgm so ken there we go boston 12 and a half point favorites tonight against cleveland yeah and this uh this market's moved out even more i know uh mgm dealing 12 and a half market is really like 13 on this in most places so the jared allen news i think there was a tiny bit of optimism that he was going to play but i think not a not a lot i just something i think is just really interesting about how this series is starting no matter what you think about miami and how well coached they are and how they beat boston last year that's not what this miami team was they weren't rated that way butler wasn't playing rosier wasn't playing and porzingis was playing and the celtics were closing really close to this range in those miami games again against nobody and i mean with a game five close 14 something like that and this is going to be 13 against a team that like you know has their best player and porzingis isn't playing this whole thing is just kind of weird to me boston's awesome i would expect them to make quick work of cleveland in the series just like is this number close knowing what we know about the miami closing point spreads and who didn't play and who played it just looks a little funny to me that's all uh at boston going by 50 i just i think caps 13 is actually a pretty good bet tonight uh actually i like this is my favorite bet tonight actually in hockey or or basketball which sounds terrible because i'm betting against the team that everybody thinks is going to railroad the other team but uh yeah i like the calves at the number and i think it's just kind of market gone a little haywire on injury news and like how the series prices is lined and i don't know just seems like a little bit too big for me that should definitely be a big favorite not saying that just close to the miami games considering who was and wasn't playing uh celtics with porzingis on off is like a pretty big difference i i think you could end up seeing that tonight and then and then who knows after that yeah they actually just moved to 13 and a half that game tips off in 13 minutes the money the money line ken sitting at plus 525 you like cleveland plus the points i mean do you think it's worth a money line stab we we certainly know boston has lost four at home as big favorites well you and i talked about this i did bet this i guess i can say this here we did this yesterday on the show but just to emphasize this i put a couple bucks on the celtics in six bet that we talked about and people might be like well that's weird like the games in cleveland with this kind of a series like i don't really care where the series is going to end i just think the calves are going to get a couple games just because boston does this a lot in series they get they they heat make a bunch of threes they drop that game when they're infinity favorites uh atlanta last year philly goes to existence last year just celtics sometimes don't make like the quickest work of these teams and the calves i think are an upgrade over miami at least to start the series um just because even with alan out they're still healthier than what miami was rolling in so i did put a couple bucks not a big bet like i length of series never that confident but i think that's a it's a fun sweat because you get the team that's going to be a huge favorite you just get them like just to to get out a little bit more in deep water in the series so i like i i will bet the caps there i didn't know that was mgm was 13 and a half that's crazy uh i have 13 um something like that similar to the miami spreads but i think i think cleveland showing up with a little bit more here yeah 13 and a half at FedMGM The total sitting at 211 I like Cleveland as well I think it too many points I'm kind of in the same mindset as you. It's like if you're telling me that Cleveland and Miami without Butler or even teams, I just don't think that's kind of true. Even with Noah Allen. Yeah. Even with Noah Allen. He's like, that's not the same impact. It's just not. Right. And Spolster's a great coach, so I don't think that's the same thing. And Porzingis too. Yep. There was a prop I liked in this game, too. Jaylen Brown over two and a half three-pointers is plus 120. He had three or more threes in two of the five games against Miami. But I just think this matchup against Cleveland, obviously good interior defense.”
Celtics 120, Cavaliers 95 — Boston beat Cleveland 120-95 in Game 1 on May 7, 2024, a 25-point margin, so Cavaliers +13 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“at betmgm so ken there we go boston 12 and a half point favorites tonight against cleveland yeah and this uh this market's moved out even more i know uh mgm dealing 12 and a half market is really like 13 on this in most places so the jared allen news i think there was a tiny bit of optimism that he was going to play but i think not a not a lot i just something i think is just really interesting about how this series is starting no matter what you think about miami and how well coached they are and how they beat boston last year that's not what this miami team was they weren't rated that way butler wasn't playing rosier wasn't playing and porzingis was playing and the celtics were closing really close to this range in those miami games again against nobody and i mean with a game five close 14 something like that and this is going to be 13 against a team that like you know has their best player and porzingis isn't playing this whole thing is just kind of weird to me boston's awesome i would expect them to make quick work of cleveland in the series just like is this number close knowing what we know about the miami closing point spreads and who didn't play and who played it just looks a little funny to me that's all uh at boston going by 50 i just i think caps 13 is actually a pretty good bet tonight uh actually i like this is my favorite bet tonight actually in hockey or or basketball which sounds terrible because i'm betting against the team that everybody thinks is going to railroad the other team but uh yeah i like the calves at the number and i think it's just kind of market gone a little haywire on injury news and like how the series prices is lined and i don't know just seems like a little bit too big for me that should definitely be a big favorite not saying that just close to the miami games considering who was and wasn't playing uh celtics with porzingis on off is like a pretty big difference i i think you could end up seeing that tonight and then and then who knows after that yeah they actually just moved to 13 and a half that game tips off in 13 minutes the money the money line ken sitting at plus 525 you like cleveland plus the points i mean do you think it's worth a money line stab we we certainly know boston has lost four at home as big favorites well you and i talked about this i did bet this i guess i can say this here we did this yesterday on the show but just to emphasize this i put a couple bucks on the celtics in six bet that we talked about and people might be like well that's weird like the games in cleveland with this kind of a series like i don't really care where the series is going to end i just think the calves are going to get a couple games just because boston does this a lot in series they get they they heat make a bunch of threes they drop that game when they're infinity favorites uh atlanta last year philly goes to existence last year just celtics sometimes don't make like the quickest work of these teams and the calves i think are an upgrade over miami at least to start the series um just because even with alan out they're still healthier than what miami was rolling in so i did put a couple bucks not a big bet like i length of series never that confident but i think that's a it's a fun sweat because you get the team that's going to be a huge favorite you just get them like just to to get out a little bit more in deep water in the series so i like i i will bet the caps there i didn't know that was mgm was 13 and a half that's crazy uh i have 13 um something like that similar to the miami spreads but i think i think cleveland showing up with a little bit more here yeah 13 and a half at FedMGM The total sitting at 211 I like Cleveland as well I think it too many points I'm kind of in the same mindset as you. It's like if you're telling me that Cleveland and Miami without Butler or even teams, I just don't think that's kind of true. Even with Noah Allen. Yeah. Even with Noah Allen. He's like, that's not the same impact. It's just not. Right. And Spolster's a great coach, so I don't think that's the same thing. And Porzingis too. Yep. There was a prop I liked in this game, too. Jaylen Brown over two and a half three-pointers is plus 120. He had three or more threes in two of the five games against Miami. But I just think this matchup against Cleveland, obviously good interior defense. He without Allen. Mobley's an excellent defender. Boston, we know how well they shoot the three. And I think that they'll share the wealth tonight. White will get his looks. Tatum will get his looks. Brown will get his looks. So I like the plus money look for Brown to get us three or more three-pointers. Kind of like the over a little bit as well, 211.5. I think we get some points there. Mavs and Thunder get their series underway tonight in OKC, 9.30 p.m. Eastern Time. Tip, Thunder, 3.5-point favorites, the over, 218.5. And I think this series is going to be really good. I think we could see six or seven games. You got the one seed versus the four. Any play for you in game one tonight? well i have i have the maps to win the series i feel like i i'm getting like really cold feet on this but i uh yeah i just i really like their playoff experience versus it's really it's it's not even like a play on dallas it's just being really skeptical of the youngest core in the league you know playing in a really big time series for the first time and being able to uh to show up immediately and just like and be able to be really competitive maybe they're just that good like they've been really good in the regular season but i just i'm really skeptical i like dallas in the series order of games and how this is going to play out not sure uh but it'd be interested to see luca's health to be interested to see if lou dort can be the luca stopper luca has kind of owned sga in a bunch of their meetings uh especially this season um they didn't play every single time i think luca was out for one of them but like seems to play really well in this matchup so i wouldn't be surprised if he had a huge game tonight probably nothing for me on game one other than just hoping the Mavs win, obviously, so the series bet gets a lot better. Yeah, I'm with you. No real play for me. If I had to make it, I'd probably take Dallas plus three and a half. I think this is a good game to live bet, though. OKC, I know that outside of game one, they handled New Orleans pretty easy, a lot of double-digit wins. I don't really see that against Dallas, so I think if the Thunder get up, Mavs plus eight and a half, nine and a half could be a good look. And then on the flip side, maybe if Dallas gets out to a big lead, bet OKC the other side to make it close. So I think this could be a good game to bet live. But at the start, if I had to make a play, I would probably take the Mavs plus 3.5. Another game where I kind of like the over as well at 2.18 and a half. So yeah, I think we could see some points in both of these games tonight. Kind of like the over in both. Over in the NHL, Stanley Cup playoffs, two games tonight. We got game two between the Rangers and the Hurricanes. Once again, Carolina favored in New York, trailing 0-1, minus 120 on the money line. Total is sitting at 5.5. You like the over, it's going to be plus 115. Seven combined goals scored in game one, Ken, but odds makers thinking this is going to be a lower scoring game. Anything in Hurricanes, Rangers? Well, I get why the total is what it is, because Frederick Anderson had been so good for Carolina in the closing part of the season, but not a great performance for him in game one. I think if I had to bet the total, I'd bet the over, and maybe my Rangers team total over, and bet that maybe the wheels are coming off here a little bit. He had a really prolonged stretch where best goalie in the league, maybe something like that, for like three weeks. Tough to sustain that, especially with someone with his back class. I guess it's possible that he could just be the guy this entire playoffs. That just seems really unlikely. I'd be curious if he got lit up again, and we go back to Carolina. I don't know if Kachetkov is healthy. Would they start him instead? Like, would they start going through some other goalies here? Anderson's been on such a roll, it's crazy to say that. But, like, I wonder how this would play out. I like the Rangers in the game. And there's no catalyst here for Carolina to play better. And I didn't really agree with the series price to begin with, so I'm really not going to agree with this. I like the Rangers in the game. And in the other game, I missed a bet the other night. Last night we were talking about Florida-Boston, which I wanted to be so hands-off of because I like both teams so much. But I forgot to mention something NHL players talk about all the time is when you have a really prolonged period of time off, like the first period back is always really tough. And it takes you a long time to kind of get back into the motions of movement on the ice and playing at a really high level, much less a playoff series. So Dallas obviously played recently, but Colorado was not. And they've been off for basically as long as Florida was off. When I even get one team involved in this, I find first period under, this is a regular season thing that I play all the time. We'll do more of it on the show maybe next year. I did a bunch of work on it this year. Like this time off first period unders just takes a little bit. And this happened in yesterday's game where it was really slow out of the gate. A billion goals scored in the second period, a lot of them by Boston. I'll play the first period under for a couple bucks. Colorado trying to get back into the swing of things. Maybe that has an impact on a really high six and a half total. And then I'll play the Rangers as well.”
Rangers 4, Hurricanes 3 — New York beat Carolina 4-3 in double overtime on May 7, 2024; the Rangers moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“And then for Minnesota, I really like the under on Mike Conley, daring him to try to do this to me again. Didn't shoot very much in game one, but was able to be really effective, make some threes. 11 and a half is his points prop.”
Mike Conley scored 4 points for Minnesota in the Timberwolves' 106-80 win over Denver, well under 11.5 (ESPN box score). (Conley: 4 points)
“And I think it's going to be more on Edwards and Towns to like combine for a ton of points at this. They're going to get this to the finish line. edwards i think his over is actually a pretty good bet tonight on 28 and a half i don't think they have anything they can do to stop him but i do think the other players from minnesota it is i think unlikely that they will play as well so nas reed isn't posted everywhere i think he's in a couple places conley's posted everywhere i'd bet his under um and then aaron gordon depending on whether uh rudy gobert plays or not point spread of the game like i i think denver is really likely to win market does too there is no bet there like it i mean i don't really have a strong opinion on it if it was a close game would it surprise me no and so strong thoughts on that series honestly and I bet a little bit more if you missed it earlier a little bit more Denver over Boston in the finals at more than 8 to 1 just identifying this as a possible entry point or Minnesota wins and Denver not going to go to the finals and they not going to do anything pacers knicks we talked about this earlier in the show i like the pacers plus the points i going to like the pacers in this range in basically every game of the series unless there's an injury just the idea that i think the way the knicks struggle to score and the way the pacers can score these games are likely to be stickier and closer than we think just neither team is complete enough i think to blow out the other a lot game one i think profiles kind of similarly to game five against the sixers where you had a market like this and the Sixers were able to be way more competitive than we thought.”
Anthony Edwards scored 27 points in Minnesota's 106-80 Game 2 win over Denver, below the 28.5 line (ESPN box score). (Edwards: 27 points)
“i i think everybody likes the knicks tonight now that the market is actually moving the opposite way i actually now i now i really like the knicks especially at four so knicks for me tonight i don't really have an opinion on the total”
76ers 112, Knicks 106 — Knicks lost outright 112-106 to the 76ers, so Knicks -4 lost (ESPN box score).
“i kind of like the under now that it's 203 but i you know we've been betting unders a lot in this series under for a couple bucks”
104-103 — Cavaliers beat Magic 104-103 in Game 5 on April 30, 2024; combined 207 points went over the 203 total, so the under lost (ESPN box score).
“I think I have to bet Toronto. I think we have to bet Toronto now.”
Maple Leafs 2, Bruins 1 — Maple Leafs beat Bruins 2-1 in overtime in Game 5; Toronto moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“of quit that's the idea uh it would be pelicans at five if for anything but i i bet them in game three and they did that i don't think i'm gonna bet this game either uh i think the thunder are gonna sweep and my way of playing that will be to parlay the oklahoma city thunder money line with the florida panthers money line tonight against the tampa bay lighting because florida florida just keeps getting better like minus 190 now against tampa that'll be my way of playing Oklahoma City Thunder panthers to team parlay money line for me tonight uh nuggets and lakers”
Oklahoma City beat New Orleans 97-89 on April 29 and Florida beat Tampa Bay 6-1 on April 29; both moneyline legs of the parlay won (ESPN box scores). (Thunder 97, Pelicans 89; Panthers 6, Lightning 1)
“and gives and you had you said you had an angle on stars golden knights here stars minus 125 total five and a half i think it's really really unlikely that logan thompson can keep doing this and i kind of like the over in the game that's my thing five and a half with these two goalies is pretty rough uh i'm gonna bet vegas again i'm gonna bet vegas in every game in this series and we'll see how it goes when it's all said and done all right that does it for the”
DAL 4, VGK 2 — Stars beat Golden Knights 4-2 on April 29 (combined 6), the over 5.5 total covers (ESPN box score).
“and gives and you had you said you had an angle on stars golden knights here stars minus 125 total five and a half i think it's really really unlikely that logan thompson can keep doing this and i kind of like the over in the game that's my thing five and a half with these two goalies is pretty rough uh i'm gonna bet vegas again i'm gonna bet vegas in every game in this series and we'll see how it goes when it's all said and done all right that does it for the”
DAL 4, VGK 2 — Stars beat Golden Knights 4-2 on April 29, so the Vegas moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“not exactly the same so uh yeah it's on the game here right uh Pacers six and a half uh 223 and a half the total after we saw game two go way over with Indiana and Milwaukee uh any bet side or total here for this game I have two bets that I like for this game and this is the only series where I feel like I've been betting props and like enjoying it and like liking it and just like listening to a lot of analysis on the series and this is gonna it's Middleton's playing so that helps i think a little bit i uh we've been betting the haliburton unders and they've been working and adjusted way down though now right 17 and a half like i see 16 and a half at mgm but but yeah juiced over at mgm for 16 and 17 and a half juiced under so it gives you an idea of where we're at i like like prove it and not even just prove this that sounds like it's insulting to haliburton part of it's like the defense that they're like they don't like they don't want him to be like the aggressive focal point of the offense that's why siakam scored 900 points like that's why that's happened um there's a part of me that wants to play his under two honestly on 26 and a half but it's like if it's the strategy is still to do this then like i don't know whatever i'd rather play halliburton's under just because i honestly he can be he was much more aggressive in game two but he also like still didn't shoot that much he was like aggressive looking to pass and he had a ton of assists and he was like really into the game and in game one he wasn't end of the game um and then the other thing is and i think this was true in game two also there's this expectation like yannis is out like well man this is going to be like a monster lillard game and my answer is like not if indiana doesn't want it to be a monster lillard game like the whole approach here i think is going to be like trap and double like make middleton like middleton's playing at 50 like make him try to score and it's normally it's like well i wouldn't bet like a 17 and a half point prop with this idea, but the prop is 30 and a half on Lillard. And if the entire defensive strategy is get the ball the hell out of his hands, like every single time, then that gonna go under like by force Like it just gonna go under a lot of the time because the Indiana is gonna be like yeah we don care Like we just great Anybody else Anybody else So I going to play the Lillard under and the Halliburton under I like the Halliburton under a lot.”
Tyrese Haliburton scored 29 points in Indiana's Game 3 OT win, well above the 16.5 under (ESPN box score). (Haliburton: 29 points)
“And if the entire defensive strategy is get the ball the hell out of his hands, like every single time, then that gonna go under like by force Like it just gonna go under a lot of the time because the Indiana is gonna be like yeah we don care Like we just great Anybody else Anybody else So I going to play the Lillard under and the Halliburton under I like the Halliburton under a lot.”
Damian Lillard scored 28 points in Milwaukee's Game 3 OT loss, below the 30.5 under (NBC Sports/ESPN reporting). (Lillard: 28 points)
“the game um a couple things i think are gonna happen uh i think that luca's gonna have a really really really good scoring game would be my guess listen a really good pod um well i mean this is a good pod in general but a good episode a couple days ago like reddick's old man in the three pod is is good in general like really good pod in general but like tim legler somebody who i really like used to go on van pelt all the time still does but i used to work on that show and so like really liked him legler the two of them did like 90 minutes on every series a couple days ago and it was really fun now some of that's dated because the games were last night but legler's like breakdown basically of his opinion is even though Luka has not shot the ball particularly well and much more has been written about his defense actually and how much he's defended at a high level Legler's point was the shot quality for Luka in the series so far has been really really really really really high in terms of the quality of looks that he's getting and he's just not making them and he basically his point is whether it's going home or just like as the series goes on basically Luka's too good to continue to miss quality shots like this and across both of the games so this is just sort of like you know look it's props this is not my area of expertise but i hear something interesting like that i don't really have a strong opinion on like who's gonna win the game i kind of think the side's okay uh and i see luka donchich 33 and a half which is like pretty similar to how he's been lying throughout the season when he scored a lot of points leading scorer in the league um i'll bet over on that and over on his threes too i think which was kind of tim's point just with the quality especially of the three point looks like his i think is exactly what's like we're due soon for like a really really good luka scoring game he's getting too many good looks like it's this isn't the clippers defense it's more about luca missing shots so uh i'll play into that for a couple bucks really enjoyed that analysis i will”
Luka Dončić scored 22 points in Dallas's Game 3 win over the Clippers, below the 33.5 over (ESPN recap). (Dončić: 22 points)
“Nashville minus 115 Canucks minus 105 total five and a half juiced over. I think we have a differing takes on how this game is going to play out. Go ahead. i mean yeah i guess we do i guess uh i guess you're expecting a bounce from vancouver and i'm just not because even in game one when demko played and played really well like there were just things about the canucks that that didn't look particularly good several of their players have been criticized the team has no postseason experience whatsoever so they are kind of an interesting favorite in that way just like with demko pretty much and there was some reporting yesterday like unlikely to return in the playoffs is how it's being worded now i think is is kind of like the consensus which is pretty rough nothing confirmed confirmed but like that's now the new spin is like it's it's looking pretty rough i just uh you know i think there's a chance nashville's just like a better coached team that actually like doesn't have a hurt goalie and you're getting a pretty amazing price on them if that's the case i as someone who followed the canucks really closely this year because of division bets tocket adams uh president's trophy for a while it was it was really crazy the difference in when de smith and like the guy whose name i can never pronounce that was the third syllabs or whatever the third goalie that played um and when demko played even in like the other players and their performance and how many times there would just be like these incredible swoons where it's just like like this lull and just like the offense was just got super stuck you think like well Demko that doesn't have an impact on the skaters it's like well it just did his scoring was in the toilet basically for a bunch of the games when he was out they reacted more poorly to a goalie injury than like any other team that this season which I followed more closely that had even like a week two week goalie injury like they responded the worst and that's what concerns me for the rest of this series it's like oh we're back to this again where it's like one goal a game and Pedersen looks terrible and like everyone's saying he's not trying anymore like this is pretty rough and uh i just i kind of can't believe that the predators got bet against and this like if you know you disagree with that i just i'm way way out on the canucks what wouldn't it be under it can be i mean it's fine and i don't tell like you're getting some big discount here yeah but i'll but i'll tell you why because you did a great job of detailing why like vancouver might not score a lot also like nashville puts their bodies on the line the quote the other night they're committed to pain the canucks keep like the like the the drumbeat out of vancouver has basically been like they are going they know that they have been outworked by nashville and i think they're going to put it on the line tonight also i think this is like the game then right i think this is going to be a ridiculously grindy game yeah i'm gonna i'm gonna play the under overtime in every game i said that yesterday though that that that That's my... It certainly has all the familiar symptoms of a game that would go to overtime at 1 How about this Here my prediction I think we get No it won because DeSmith playing I was going to say it going to go to like triple overtime but it won Maybe one overtime, though. It would have to be a lot different. I mean, even one overtime is a little. I just, they just, when it's not Demko, they just suck. They're just not very good. That's all it is. And there's a chance. Will it go to six? No, right? Only because I only ask that because the overs, five and a half is juice big time. Under five and a half is even money. I like that. reds in the under some exact scores with overtime yeah something like that i like nashville um but i i hear your point on the under and and maybe maybe you get a vancouver response that i'm”
VAN 2, NSH 1 — Canucks beat Predators 2-1 in Game 3, so the Nashville moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“two oh one and a half the total i'll keep the simple under yeah i'll be on the under for the fourth straight game the end uh”
ORL 112, CLE 89 — Magic beat Cavaliers 112-89 on April 27 (combined 201), under 201.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“nuggets three and a half uh closeout game at the lakers 218 and a half i'm betting denver question is do i want to just bet denver to win in case we get one of those weird one possession sweep games like yeah with anything like because i was actually considering like i might want to parlay it with something no i mean i just i just do i do i think denver's going to win the game more often than like a minus 150 price do i think they're going to win the game more often than that i think they are yeah denver in some way shape or form for sure”
LAL 119, DEN 108 — Lakers beat Nuggets 119-108 on April 27, so the Denver moneyline busts (ESPN recap).
“thought on the total there i don't have a lot in this game you had a thought on the total also right yeah 208 and a half under uh i think this will be one of the grindy games like of all time uh Sixers played really physical in game three coming out of it the Knicks are saying you know that that's what they have they want to play like basically we're going to double down uh I think this is going to be like potential ejections like a couple yeah not like I don't think punches are going to be thrown but I think there will be a couple skirmishes during this game I think it's going to be a really grindy game I like the under also love it yeah I love that thought if I had to bet that game I would bet under also I agree with you on that I don't have a strong opinion on the”
NYK 97, PHI 92 — Knicks beat 76ers 97-92 on April 28 (combined 189), under 208.5 covers (ESPN box score).
“like how little his draft position moved as a result of kind of everyone speculating that he was in the mix to the degree that the over on 11 and a half on his draft position has just gotten bet back to being a favorite again um i will also add that last night i bet his over on 11 and a half and i think i have like minus 108 and minus 116 and like seeing the rams trade i just go like oh no like this is like the kind of thing that you're just you got a bad feeling about because”
Las Vegas selected Brock Bowers with the 13th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, above the 11.5 line. (Bowers: pick 13)
“But you like the Nuggets or no? I like the Nuggets to win. I'm just saying how the Lakers are.”
DEN 112, LAL 105 — Denver beat the Lakers 112-105 in Game 3 on April 25, 2024, so the Nuggets moneyline cashed.
“And I'm going to cheer my brains out for the Panthers again. Are you betting the Panthers? I did. Yeah, I mean, it's all the same bucket. I'll bet them small in this game, but I have series for a ton. And I have minus games in the series for a lot. And Stanley Cup, it's my biggest position. and I have like everyone on the first three lines to win the conspice.”
FLA 5, TB 3 — Florida beat Tampa Bay 5-3 in Game 3 on April 25, 2024, so the Panthers moneyline cashed.
“uh starting in a half an hour in tampa uh give me give me the panthers and basically until until the the hockey playoffs are over or all of us die i'll take the panthers tonight i do like the price they're just much better uh they got the a plus plus vasilevsky game they still lost yeah i think the panthers might sweep this team i really do um i hope they do because way more rest going into the next round and then hopefully they win that you're gonna bet the islanders tonight with sorokan starting instead of varlamov it like it very it very tempting right the price just keeps climbing too at Hurricanes keep getting bet out It been up 20 cents in the last three hours I feel like Yeah. Total five and a half make you want to do anything. I feel like if you like the Islanders, you like the under, probably. And also, like, well, I guess Anderson hasn't been, like, great, great. He was really good in game one and then allowed three goals, like, in game two. Was he great in game two? Right. Yeah. I mean, like, not, he hasn't been terrible, but he was on that incredible streak. I mean, maybe it's, I don't know if I want to bet the Islanders. Is it, like, Islanders and the under for a couple bucks is, like, a fun thing? And basically hope you get, like, a Sorokin bounce in the first game at home? I think the answer is yes. And, like, also, like, I'm a Rangers fan, but the Islander crowds in the playoffs are insane. Love the way you said that. uh maybe game to go to overtime too which would get us back to the islanders in the regular oh i totally forgot this i'm so happy that you mentioned that i i'm betting every game tonight to go to overtime there there are two games you're betting both games i'm betting both of them i'm betting both of them to go to overtime and all the games tomorrow we've only had one overtime game thus far in the playoffs well two now with the king's oilers parlaying them with uh bo nicks over 32 and a half and a return to sanity good all right on the other side we'll give you like a little bit more concrete thoughts on the NHL bets, and then we'll close things out talking NFL draft on draft day. We'll be right back with You Better You Bet, presented by BetMGM. On the Bet, welcome back to You Better You Bet, brought to you by BetMGM with Nick Kostos and Ken Barkley. On the BetQL Network. Just to finalize the NHL plays for tonight, Islanders. Islanders to win for me. That's it. I guess it has to coordinate with the Islanders, all right? I'm going to parlay the Islanders with the under for a couple bucks. And I'm going to do it very soon here.”
Carolina beat the Islanders 3-2 in regulation (not overtime) in Game 3 on April 25, 2024; the Islanders moneyline leg lost, so the parlay lost. (Hurricanes 3, Islanders 2 (regulation); total 5)
“uh maybe game to go to overtime too which would get us back to the islanders in the regular oh i totally forgot this i'm so happy that you mentioned that i i'm betting every game tonight to go to overtime there there are two games you're betting both games i'm betting both of them i'm betting both of them to go to overtime and all the games tomorrow we've only had one overtime game thus far in the playoffs well two now with the king's oilers parlaying them with uh bo nicks over 32 and a half and a return to sanity good all right on the other side we'll give you like”
Florida beat Tampa Bay 5-3 in regulation in Game 3 on April 25, 2024; the game did not go to overtime, so the overtime prop lost. (Panthers 5, Lightning 3 (regulation))
“uh maybe game to go to overtime too which would get us back to the islanders in the regular oh i totally forgot this i'm so happy that you mentioned that i i'm betting every game tonight to go to overtime there there are two games you're betting both games i'm betting both of them i'm betting both of them to go to overtime and all the games tomorrow we've only had one overtime game thus far in the playoffs well two now with the king's oilers parlaying them with uh bo nicks over 32 and a half and a return to sanity good all right on the other side we'll give you like”
Carolina beat the Islanders 3-2 in regulation, not overtime, in Game 3 on April 25, 2024, so the overtime prop lost. (Hurricanes 3, Islanders 2 (regulation))
“um that's basically it uh caleb still minus 40 000 to go first just because in case people were curious about like how locked in that first overall pick is draft position wise another limit bet on bo nicks under in the first round uh minus 152 on under 32 and a half”
Denver selected Bo Nix with the 12th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, under the 32.5 line. (Nix: pick 12)
“and i bet this i think too where it's like well if it's still possible it's three and it's four and five in a trade than I still like under five and a half, whether he goes third or not under five and a half minus two 16. this particular one.”
Minnesota selected J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, above the 5.5 line. (McCarthy: pick 10)
“i agree with you though in the mccarthy exactas where he goes third like who do you want to have fourth may is a really appealing answer that as opposed to a receiver with the idea being there would just be so much appetite to not get scooped for the fourth quarterback and it is drake made to like a guy who was really highly regarded coming into the draft like a mccarthy slip seems a little more likely than a may slip even based on what some smart this isn't me like eric eager comes on and says the same thing and and just to play this out if you wanted just at a big price again if we're assuming McCarthy's going to be the third pick play it out where Arizona stands pat and takes a receiver you'd want to do neighbors ahead of Harrison right just to get the bigger price neighbors would be the receiver there yeah just just just like it can be Harrison but no one there's enough uncertainty and no one seems to know neighbors for a couple bucks and like imagine if McCarthy goes third your wait for the fourth overall pick I mean that's that's one of the great 10 minutes of your life your week your month you know like waiting to see if that comes And I know that I think that exact, because I think I bet it this morning when I bet it was like a 200 to one or 175 to one, something like that. Something outrageous just for a couple bucks. Again, just like play the stuff.”
Malik Nabers went 6th overall to the Giants and J.J. McCarthy went 10th to the Vikings, not third/fourth in that order. (Nabers: pick 6; McCarthy: pick 10)
“the game one total close to 10 and a half so that gives you an idea like even game two was expected by the opener to be lower scoring and despite that it got bet under anyway 205 and a half is the number in the market right now some push and pull but we've landed on even lower scoring than the opener i mean look just the way like i have the numbers up pace efficiencies shooting officiating foul rate like i i just i don't know why you'd bet overs right now they can hit because teams can make a lot of threes they can hit because the pacers bucks game happens i think you're either not betting or you're just continuing to bet unders until we see like bottom of the barrel kind of totals here and i don't think we're there yet i think we're in between i think we're getting closer right we have a 199 total tomorrow in a game for example with the calves and magic um for me here like maybe small bet on the under to have something”
MIA 111, BOS 101 — Miami beat Boston 111-101 in Game 2 on April 24, 2024, for 212 combined points, above the 205.5 total. (Combined score: 212 points)
“something anyway uh yeah like if you're casual like thunder pelicans probably doesn't really like wet your whistle or tickle your fancy but uh i'll be into it thunder a seven and a half point favor total in this one to 11 and a half i actually think the side market here is fascinating pels could have won game one and now we're showing up in game two and the thunder a bigger favorite than they were in game one uh i don't think i'm gonna have a bet on this game but i think if i were to bet it i actually think i would only lay oklahoma city after what we saw in game one and the pelicans petering out at the end yeah it's interesting we had talked about this like if sacramento had made the playoffs i was like man i would like them not to beat okc but just to like take them out into deep water a little bit like take them to a game six game seven challenge them a little bit just because it's rare to have a one seed that has a huge regular season and has absolutely no playoff experience whatsoever we know how important that is historically in the playoffs uh even subjectively but like there are plenty of ways to do it objectively too and so whoever had won between pelicans kings i don't think was ever going to win but you were curious if this would happen where it like yeah you know the thunder have never done this ever to anybody and they just supposed to blow out these teams like that weird it would not surprise me at all if the pelicans were close again in the game or won the game just based on i think what matt alluded to just how the teams fit together is just really interesting i think it lends itself to kind of lower scoring games and i like the under in this game a little bit”
OKC 124, NOP 92 — Oklahoma City beat New Orleans 124-92 in Game 2 on April 24, 2024, for 216 combined points, above the 211.5 total. (Combined score: 216 points)
“yeah under for me here and really just like a play on just swayman back in net and he's just killed the maple leafs okay i got a six total with that”
BOS 4, TOR 2 — Boston beat Toronto 4-2 in Game 3 on April 24, 2024, for six combined goals, exactly the 6 total line. (Combined goals: 6)
“little bit vancouver and nashville are playing each other so i kind of chose to play them in different ways more extreme outcomes uh i bet uh in i bet both of these teams almost solely in the con smith market because i liked their best players more than the price of the team to win quinn hughes's price to me was completely outrageous versus the likelihood of vancouver to win the cup they're like 18 16 to 1 to win he was 45 to 1 to win the con smith we've seen kail mccarr win recently we've seen victor hedman win recently quinn hughes gonna win the norris trophy this year he is by far the most likely player to win on vancouver um so i bet him and And then I bet Roman Yossi for Nashville, similar vein, at more than 100 to 1. Yossi.”
Connor McDavid won the 2024 Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP, not Roman Josi (ESPN). (2024 Conn Smythe Trophy winner: Connor McDavid)
“Ken, how are you betting game two, Suns-Wolves, Minnesota, a two-and-a-half point favorite? I think you and I both came into the series liking Phoenix. I know we did, and I know we both probably took the approach of, okay, we'll play back on Phoenix either in this game or as the series goes on for them to be pretty competitive in this series. and i i do have a bet on phoenix in this game if there's one thing that concerns me uh is that the market has moved toward phoenix despite the facts like i know that they're saying grace and allen's totally fine and i know it was uh tweeted earlier that he won't have a minutes restriction that he'll play his normal couple minutes uh hurt was injured late in game one the suns just have so little depth and like cool they can say he's great just like it would it concerns me a lot as someone with a sun's ticket that like any any this is one of those like some it's not the nugget starting five where like if one gets hurt they can't win the title but it's almost like that where it's like if you pull it this through like you pull it this a little bit and the suns have no depth it's really problematic uh and grayson allen's an incredibly important player for them you're kind of just crossing your fingers here i do like phoenix to play better than they didn't get they didn't play that bad in game one edwards just went nuts maybe he goes nuts again uh more than a possession three a possession i i like phoenix in the game but definitely like not if this isn't like go overboard like this isn't like oh man like love phoenix in this game the grace now and stuff uh very nerve-wracking i think you did a great job describing that and”
MIN 105, PHX 93 — Minnesota beat Phoenix 105-93, a 12-point margin, so Phoenix's +2.5 did not cover (ESPN box score).
“15 and a half 16 and a half like pretty normal could definitely get a high number of assists he actually came pretty close to a triple-double in game one. I think he just bet the under on Halliburton. Not even that he can't be productive, just that he can't be productive scoring, maybe, anymore. It's a real question we have to ask. Like, is he 40%? And what does that look like if he is? So I like the Bucs a little bit in the game, kind of with that in mind. And really, I kind of like Halliburton's under. Well, if Halliburton's going to do what he did in game one, Milwaukee's going to win. Like, Siakam scored 36 in game one, and they still lost. Yeah. i i mean i for what it's worth like just for you know uh not it's not reversion to the mean just like on like under in the game also then right well i just think like is it that the pay is it that the bucks defended at a high level or the pacers started over 13 from three and like that's that's why this snowballed like i just you know the total i'm less mindful of just because like i think it's unlikely they shoot like that again it's unlikely in any game they shoot like that again it can happen it's just unlikely as opposed to a player who's like 40 playing with a nagging injury like that's that's a thing as opposed to just like are the shots going in or not so i just the total is just it's a little tough for me just because like it's not the pacers want to play a game like this meanwhile the calves and magic are dying to play a game that goes under these you see what their total open effort game three by the way we've gone under in the first game under in the second game we bet both yeah now we're in the 190s finally welcome and we should be yeah right yeah maybe should be in the 180s uh i'll it's 199 does anybody think that game's going to 200 tomorrow anybody or two days from now i i agree with you i definitely agree um i'm looking for haliburton's what's the 19 and a half yeah tough he's not healthy i'll i'll that'll be my bet for the game i'll ride with you on Tyrese Haliburton under 19 and a half points final nba game for”
Tyrese Haliburton scored 12 points, under the 19.5 line (ESPN box score). (Tyrese Haliburton: 12 points)
“uh do you want to group the other games together panthers lightning abs jets predators canucks what you like in the other three games yeah i mean i have the panthers for the series and i bet a little bit on them in game one and i'm gonna bet on them in this game and i honestly think this is going to be like i'm gonna bet the panthers in like every game of the playoffs kind of thing going on yeah i may bet i may bet reinhardt to score again tonight i haven't decided if i'm gonna do that or not yet um have you seen i'll do i'll do that game last i really like vancouver and i like playing against the injury line move this is like our nba angle and we do this in hockey a little bit that's the Canucks tonight who are down some places minus 115 minus 120 with DeSmith against Nashville I think Vancouver definitely wins Colorado has gotten bet like somebody knows the final score of the game I mean they're out to minus 125 minus 130 now on the road and I like Winnipeg a little bit now but I love that blind move in that market is that's weird for me but strongest inclination tonight Vancouver wins without Demco Florida still wins but you're laying a heavier price yes I I don't know how I want to bet Florida I don't know if I want to bet them on the puck line or not. I also have Florida for the series. Definitely love Vancouver. Definitely love Winnipeg. Maybe I'll parlay the Rangers and the Panthers. Maybe that's how I'll do it. Just have action on everything.”
FLA 3, TB 2 — Florida beat Tampa Bay 3-2 in overtime (ESPN box score).
“uh do you want to group the other games together panthers lightning abs jets predators canucks what you like in the other three games yeah i mean i have the panthers for the series and i bet a little bit on them in game one and i'm gonna bet on them in this game and i honestly think this is going to be like i'm gonna bet the panthers in like every game of the playoffs kind of thing going on yeah i may bet i may bet reinhardt to score again tonight i haven't decided if i'm gonna do that or not yet um have you seen i'll do i'll do that game last i really like vancouver and i like playing against the injury line move this is like our nba angle and we do this in hockey a little bit that's the Canucks tonight who are down some places minus 115 minus 120 with DeSmith against Nashville I think Vancouver definitely wins Colorado has gotten bet like somebody knows the final score of the game I mean they're out to minus 125 minus 130 now on the road and I like Winnipeg a little bit now but I love that blind move in that market is that's weird for me but strongest inclination tonight Vancouver wins without Demco Florida still wins but you're laying a heavier price yes I I don't know how I want to bet Florida I don't know if I want to bet them on the puck line or not. I also have Florida for the series. Definitely love Vancouver. Definitely love Winnipeg. Maybe I'll parlay the Rangers and the Panthers. Maybe that's how I'll do it. Just have action on everything.”
NSH 4, VAN 1 — Nashville defeated Vancouver 4-1 (ESPN box score).
“uh do you want to group the other games together panthers lightning abs jets predators canucks what you like in the other three games yeah i mean i have the panthers for the series and i bet a little bit on them in game one and i'm gonna bet on them in this game and i honestly think this is going to be like i'm gonna bet the panthers in like every game of the playoffs kind of thing going on yeah i may bet i may bet reinhardt to score again tonight i haven't decided if i'm gonna do that or not yet um have you seen i'll do i'll do that game last i really like vancouver and i like playing against the injury line move this is like our nba angle and we do this in hockey a little bit that's the Canucks tonight who are down some places minus 115 minus 120 with DeSmith against Nashville I think Vancouver definitely wins Colorado has gotten bet like somebody knows the final score of the game I mean they're out to minus 125 minus 130 now on the road and I like Winnipeg a little bit now but I love that blind move in that market is that's weird for me but strongest inclination tonight Vancouver wins without Demco Florida still wins but you're laying a heavier price yes I I don't know how I want to bet Florida I don't know if I want to bet them on the puck line or not. I also have Florida for the series. Definitely love Vancouver. Definitely love Winnipeg. Maybe I'll parlay the Rangers and the Panthers. Maybe that's how I'll do it. Just have action on everything.”
COL 5, WPG 2 — Colorado defeated Winnipeg 5-2 (ESPN box score).
“then the other under you have to consider and like i'll bet this and there's an argument for the over here because he shot so much even though he shot poorly like you got to make d'angelo russell prove that he could score more than 15 and a half points in the game in this series like i just it's at some point they have to think about playing game vincent instead like i mean it's just it gets ridiculous this series is just a nightmare for him so i i mean i'm gonna play his under and and we'll see how it goes.”
D'Angelo Russell scored 23 points, over the 15.5 line (ESPN box score). (D'Angelo Russell: 23 points)
“Do you like a lot in hockey tonight? I don't like a lot in hockey. I mean, I have series. I'm going to bet the Knights. I'm going to bet the Golden Knights and back up my series bet and bet Vegas to win. I have no bet in the Islanders-Hurricanes game.”
VGK 4, DAL 3 — Vegas defeated Dallas 4-3 (ESPN box score).
“Let's start with the line movement here, and if you're surprised by it, and then we'll give our analysis and bets for the game. Yeah, a little bit, yeah. Because I think usually, especially with these, like, standalone games, you have a star injury, and look what's not that Giannis and Jimmy Butler are the same player but you just look at like what happened to the Bucks Pacers price in game one with all of this talk about Giannis missing the game like just it's not a market that's moving as I would have expected so it's you know for example like if you show up and you're like well I want to bet the heat because it's really contrarian no it isn't I mean it isn't like a price like they're both announced out I know the price opened low with the idea that he probably wouldn't play low but uh I think if I liked anything in this game i would just bet the under which sounds hideous because of what the heat did against the sixers the other night but just like i don't know if 205 and a half like the heat aren't gonna want to play a game like that that's not how they wanted to play against philly either they're gonna throw that like really clunky awesome zone defense at chicago they're gonna brick a ton of shots like this is what that like the miami heat want to play a game that goes under the total i think they're gonna have success i do i liked the under last night i think it was obviously the right side but it lost that's fine um and you have a slightly lower market in this game with another heat total and they're missing Jimmy Butler and they're not going to get Rozier back. I like the under again. So Ken will be on the under. Yeah, I don't know what I'm missing here.”
MIA 112, CHI 91 — Miami beat Chicago 112-91 in the play-in game on April 19, 2024, a combined 203 points, under 205.5 (ESPN box score).
“Ken, let's go to the Western Conference play-in game tomorrow night. Winner will determine the eighth seed in the Western Conference and the right to play the Oklahoma City Thunder, the one seed in the West, in round one. The Kings, about a one-and-a-half point road favorite at the Pelicans. Total is 211-and-a-half. Zion Williamson ruled out for this game for New Orleans. Brandon Ingram clearly not 100% for the Pelicans either. Do you want to just like bet Sacramento here? Do you want to be contrarian and take the Pels? What are you doing here, Kings and Pels, Friday night? Yeah, I mean, it's just another one of these games, right? These playing games and some of the first-round games where it's like, all right, most important player in-game out, what are you doing? There's still a pick on the board in this game. There are a couple ones. It's not my favorite bet. I think I'm going to have Sacramento for something. They're just playing much better right now. It has to be worth something. I think they have a coaching advantage in the game too. I think that's probably worth something. I don't think the crowd is great. I think that's probably worth something. All of these small things, I think, probably add up to, and that knows Zion being much bigger than that. McCollum can play better. That's less of a concern. how many minutes is ingram playing it looked awful and maybe it can look different but i don't think it was just great defense is why it looked awful it looked awful because he's not all the way back yet and the idea that you're going to get that you're not going to get that alvarado game the likelihood you get another one of those in the next hundred games is like two percent and you could get one but it would be like winning the lottery if that happened and it was literally the key to them not getting run out of the building by the lakers in the first three quarters of the game just like it's not even about sacramento as much honestly it's just the state of new orleans right now in terms of like their team health all that stuff i think you just gotta bet sacramento in the game as as not public but as like obvious as that might seem i feel like the bulls are obvious also like the heater getting bet i i don't know i i like the bulls in the first game and i also like sacramento in the second game so give me the bulls to be the eight and get slaughtered by the Celtics and then I'll take the Kings. I don't know if I agree with what you said yesterday, Cam, but I thought it was really interesting that Sacramento, with some playoff experience and a good head coach in Mike Brown, might be able to maybe not beat Oklahoma City in a best of seven, but may be able to extend the series a little bit and make it a little interesting. I thought that was fascinating. We could obviously talk about that more on Monday's show, but I do like Sacramento to advance to be the eighth to take on OKC. And with that, let's move to Saturday and Sunday. We'll start in the NBA and we'll get to”
NOP 105, SAC 98 — New Orleans beat Sacramento 105-98 in the April 19, 2024 play-in game; the Kings moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“the timberwolves one and a half point favorites against the suns total here ken is 214 and a half i have a i did make a small bet on the suns to win the series this morning when i was doing some other work i was like i think i nothing's going to change here let me just get in i kind of think phoenix is even going to get bet the next couple days i just think there's a lot of organic interest in them by everything that i'm reading and i just didn't want to get like the worst of the number honestly so i bet phoenix at the best price i could find to win the series but i have the order here and minnesota's home crowd's pretty good i less convinced of anything the one thing i think is really interesting bradley beal started having some pretty strong performances in a lot of different statistical categories going into the end of the season there's been a couple studies done that he is like basically after jamal murray among current active like remote star players after murray he's like one of the players who like improved his play the best during the postseason i think it might be like overs on him early on here like you always worry about him catching an injury as the series goes on but really like was kind of the key to how the sons have played the last few weeks finally healthy plays well plays even better in the playoffs like a jamal murray light is kind of what i would call him basically so i think i'm not sure who's going to win this game but I think Beal numbers before that starts to be a recurring topic that we talk about and and like I bet the Suns also for the series I'm not going to bet this game if the Timberwolves do win game one I'll bet the Suns again in the series and I'll bet the Suns in game two almost also like if the Suns win game one I might bet the Timberwolves to win game two and I think and I and I think that Phoenix will will still win the series even if Minnesota did win game two so no bet for me on game one with the Suns and the Wolves I will have a bet on this next game and I'll go first here Ken”
Minnesota completed a 4-0 sweep of Phoenix on April 28, 2024; the Suns did not win the series (ESPN game recap). (Timberwolves won series 4-0)
“Final game on Saturday, Nuggets and the Lakers. Nuggets have been bet out to a 7.5-point home favorite. Total, 223.5. We said on the show yesterday, or I did at least, that I was considering the Lakers to at least cover in game one. Gallagher comes on. he's like yeah i think the nuggets are probably going to cover it's just like that this is one right kind of similar to pacers bucks that we'll get to in a second where if i click that button on the lakers i may feel really really stupid at the conclusion of the game at the conclusion uh what do you want to do here talk me into something maybe with the lakers and the nuggets game one i mean i uh i don't think the number is way off it just it seems a little big honestly i agree I there's there's just uh and like I I have Denver for that so again we'll have to mix this stuff in I have been one team to win the NBA title that is playing in the postseason or period because it's not like I bet a team that missed the playoffs I bet the Nuggets for a lot and I've had that forever and I'm not adding anything in that market I'm gonna bet the Celtics to beat a couple non-Denver teams at big prices now with the idea that the Celtics might have a walk basically to the NBA finals might as well play some contingencies if Denver doesn't get there for whatever reason but that's all i'm doing that's not denver to win the title i just this is a pretty advantageous setup for the lakers like denver hasn't played a playoff game like oh they have a bunch of time off great like murray hasn't played a lot like they haven't played a lot together recently down the stretch they weren't as good as they were earlier in the year and like they'll get like they have the best player in the league they'll be fine but are they going to be fine in game one to win by a ton against like healthy lebron i don't know relatively healthy Davis even though he struggled in the fourth quarter the other thing is like they got Gabe Vincent back he played minutes the other night like they like the Lakers are good like I just I I think Denver is going to win the title I have bet them seven and a half right out of the gate is like a kind of a tough number here to be honest and I you know I'm the person who also thinks this series is going to go longer than people expect I think the Denver wins I just think it takes a little longer than the conference finals the schedule is much more advantageous for the Lakers than it was last year in the conference finals so yeah like seven and a half I like the lakers in this game but i think the denver nuggets win the series but i just think it takes a while and it does feel like this number won't last for that long the seven and a half is juiced towards the lakers so look i mean like it might just go down to seven whatever it's not you're gonna get like you bet the lakers seven and a half it's gonna close like three and a half that's not gonna happen barring like an injury of some kind uh a couple bucks for me on the lakers i'll also and i agree with mike and like how could you not like d'angelo russell's been really good and if”
DEN 114, LAL 103 — Denver beat Los Angeles 114-103 in Game 1 on April 20, 2024, an 11-point margin that the Lakers did not cover at +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“My prediction is we'll see Ilya Sorokin at some point in this series.”
Carolina beat New York 6-3 on April 30, 2024 to win the East First Round series 4-1; the Islanders did not win the series (ESPN game recap). (Hurricanes won series 4-1)
“All right, Ken, bets for the Game 1s in the NHL this weekend. Let's go to Saturday's action, which will start with the Hurricanes and the Islanders from Carolina. The Canes, minus 225, a big favorite, Islanders plus 185. Total in the game is 5.5, juiced under. Freddie Anderson likely to start for Carolina. And we think that Varlamov will start for the Islanders, not Ilya Sorokin. Any bets here for the Hurricanes and the Islanders? yeah and i'll do i'll do my series bets here too i don't think i'm going to bet like the game ones aggressively in any of these series but i'll just tell you in each of the series what i like i like the series to go longer i think than people expect i think the islanders have a puncher's chance to win it plus games money line you can take a game off like you're going to talk about maybe varlamov is bad and sorokan who i still think is like the best goalie in the world comes in a lot of the hurricanes underlying stuff things that matter in the postseason a lot of their five-on-five metrics their goalie play all of this is pretty blah dennis mentioned their scoring is going to get a lot better he's right the problem is all the other stuff doesn't look very good um so i just i i think this team yet again is extremely overrated now they can beat the islanders obviously in the series but i think it could be a lot closer than people think so plus games small bet on the money line for them to win the series i hope it goes six hope it goes seven i'll have a bet on the islanders to win this game i also think that this game could be higher scoring than expected. Now it's five and a half juiced way under. If it ever goes to five, I'm going to bet the over. Three of the four matchups between the teams this year were very high scoring, like seven or eight goals. My prediction is we'll see Ilya Sorokin at some point in this series. So I'll have a small bet on the over and I'll have a small bet on the Islanders. And I agree with Ken Islanders chance to win this series and extend it very deep. Saturday night, Bruins and the Leafs in Beantown, Boston minus 120.”
CAR 3, NYI 1 — Carolina beat New York 3-1 in Game 1 on April 20, 2024; the Islanders moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“on the brins like they have to win they can lose just like every team can lose but these are certain indicators that we look for i like their profile as a stanley cup champion a deep run team way more than toronto's and they're a small price in the series and they beat this team a lot in the regular season so i'm gonna bet same size bet as the other stuff bet boston to win series uh i may i don't know if i'm gonna lay games in it just because these teams have a history of going to some game seven sometimes but bruins to win the series is uh is how i'm gonna play it and i do have some money on the bruins to win the stanley cup uh with the idea that their first two opponents are likely to be teams that they played very well against listen i'm i i just want some action this”
The Florida Panthers, not the Boston Bruins, won the 2024 Stanley Cup, beating Edmonton in Game 7 on June 24, 2024 (NHL.com). (Champion: Florida Panthers)
“west stuff uh i have but one other player in the con smith market price shop it but like some of price is 45 50 to one they make no sense to me just and maybe i'm crazy uh quinn hughes of the canucks is definitely the most likely player on their team to win if they win the stanley cup demko will win a little bit goalies win less often patterson some of their other centers could win but like quinn hughes is going to win the norris trophy drives everything about the team kale mccarr victor hedman are defensemen that score a lot that have won recently Conn Smythe Trophy if the connect like 40 canucks are like 18 16 to 1 to win the stanley cup quinn he was 50 to 1 to win the consummate i don i don understand at all and i think they are very likely to beat Nashville in the first round which means that that price is very likely to go down A nice bonus bet from our guy Ken Barkley to wrap up the weekend of playoff betting in the Game 1s Playoffs here on You Better, You Bet.”
Connor McDavid, not Quinn Hughes, won the 2024 Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP despite Edmonton's Final loss (ESPN). (Winner: Connor McDavid)
“But it was really a work in progress and not extensive. And this is the sport that I would say I put the most resources into retooling and finding new historical criteria, thinking about more deeply. And I really like the stuff that I have. And I'll just say it is a certainty that I will be betting a good amount of money on the Bruins to win the Stanley Cup this year. And part of that is what happened last night. regular season series in hockey versus any other sport, baseball, whatever. It's every sport's different with how they do this stuff. The regular season series in hockey is insanely important for who wins the postseason series between the teams. It matters more than like anything you could ever imagine. How did the regular season series go? Is there a big mismatch between the two teams? In the NBA, it's irrelevant almost. Depending on when the games were played, you would toss it out. In a lot of cases in the NFL, you'd only play your division teams twice. So who cares? When you crush a team in the regular season, it means something. And it means that when you play them in the postseason, it's going to go the same way. And we'll do a lot of the data on this tomorrow. The Bruins struggled tremendously against the Lightning this year. They were not a team that the Bruins wanted to see in the playoffs. The Panthers are much better suited to see the Lightning in the playoffs. They won the season series against them. Also, the Panthers are just better anyway. So the Bruins took themselves out of a first-round series where they were, I think, likely to lose, actually. And I don't think Tampa's going anywhere in the playoffs. I actually hate them this year, but I think they would beat Boston, and I think that's problematic if you want to bet Boston. And it takes Boston out of that, and it puts them into a first-round and second-round series. There are two teams this year, only two that the Bruins went 4-0 against in the regular season. The first one is Toronto, and the second one is Florida, and that will be their first-round and their second-round opponents in the postseason, I think, in all likelihood, because I like Florida a lot against Toronto. And so things have broken in an insanely positive way for the Bruins, who I don't think are the best team, but have now inherited this path. And then who knows what happens in the top half? I think the Rangers get tripped up by somebody. I just don't know who it is. Probably not first round. Maybe it's the Islanders, whatever. And the Bruins find themselves in the Stanley Cup final by basically beating two teams that all they've done this year is beat them. And I don't think the West is very good this year. And that's how you end up with the Bruins as the Stanley Cup champion. I don't even know if they're that good. And that's how you end up with that from a team quality standpoint, historical criteria. There are only a couple teams that pass every test, and the Bruins are one of them. So I think what actually happened yesterday was crazy. I didn't think it was gonna happen. I wasn't gonna bet the Bruins in the first round and see what happens, but now they're off Tampa and they're on to Toronto and Florida. And for them, even though Toronto and Florida are very good, for them that is extremely advantageous based on what we know about how the regular season series matter And not just the regular season series in this particular matchup because I don know how you can be like a hockey fan of any repute and look at Boston versus Toronto. And almost like, obviously it matters who's playing in the games. Like if Boston's like tossing out like Cam Neely and Ray Bork at their current age, it's not going to go well against Toronto. But Boston against Toronto, the Bruins have like voodoo against the Maple Leafs. Voodoo! They've played like four times in the past 10 years, and the Bruins kill them every time they play in the playoffs, including like a Toronto epic yak job like eight years ago in a game seven on the road in Boston. Like Boston not just owned them in the regular season, they've owned them in the postseason as well. Boston's going to be minus 120 here. We were talking about this off air. Likely, both of us think, and we'll see what announcement they eventually, who Jim Montgomery is going to play, think it's going to be Jeremy Swayman, who has been like the Toronto specialist this season. and plays in all the Maple Leafs games and shuts them down in all the games, to the point that we think it actually pisses off Linus Olmark that Swayman plays in these games. I think it's probably going to be Swayman against Samsonov in Toronto. I like the Bruins also in this series, laying a short price against the Maple Leafs. Maybe we'll hit one other series on the other side. The Rangers are a huge favorite against the Capitals, deservedly so. Two and two against them in the regular season, though. The home team winning each of the four games. God. Yeah. Can you imagine? Yes. Ovechkin just like dancing on your grave. But like, you know, like Charlie Lindgren's played like every game in goal. They had to like survive this gauntlet to get there. Like, why can't they win game one? I really suck as a Ranger fan. A little bit more on the NHL postseason on the other side. We'll give you all our bets for tonight, including the Heat and the Sixers. And Tyler Morales gives you all his bets for so much drama at the RBC. We'll be right back with You Better You Bet Presented by BetMGM On the BetQL Network You Bet Brought to you by BetMGM With Nick Kostos and Ken Barkley On the BetQL Network Alright, a couple thank yous for us to dole out A little bit more on the NHL postseason Tyler's bets for the RBC Heritage And our bets for tonight But some thank yous to dole out first First, thank you to Ken Barkley for returning to the show Great to have Ken back after a well-deserved week vacation Two great guests, Dane Brugler from The Athletic and Odyssey Sports NFL Insider, our pal Brian Baldinger. Our executive producer, Alex Fasano. Our technical director, Tyler Morales. Our engineer, Jake the Snake Hassan. And our video producer, God's Perfect Creation, Brian Gurch. Alex, type in the chat, when is Mike – so Mike's getting married this weekend. Like when is the next time Mike Brown is working on the show? Just like, yeah. Oh, he's back next Wednesday. Good for him. All right, so no Mike Brown until next Wednesday. We'll see how it goes. But thanks to Brian Gurch for filling in today. BetMGM Tonight is coming up after us, a four-hour live betting extravaganza. So we touched on Florida and Boston and their matchups in the first round. Ken, you said you like Florida against Tampa. You like Boston against Toronto. I definitely concur on Boston against Toronto. Anything else for now? We'll do more on the NHL postseason tomorrow. Only one Western Conference series confirmed as of now, Winnipeg against Colorado. Wow. I like Bruins and Panthers to win and play each other in what, for me, at least the way I do my stuff, will be by far the most high leverage series for who wins the Stanley Cup. Both of those teams stand out to me more than basically every other team in the league as likely winners, and they're on a collision course to play each other very early. obviously a rematch of the 1-8 series with the Bruins looking for revenge from losing as a historically good team last year to the Panthers who went to the cup final maybe the Bruins can get the revenge this time move on to the conference final where they play maybe the Rangers maybe another team so just that Panthers Bruins series is like kind of everything for me and how I think it's going to play out Boston's prices are just way better and I actually think they're more likely to beat Toronto than Florida is to beat Tampa it's part of why I like them at their price to win the Stanley Cup. The other series that we know in the East, I have much more lukewarm opinions on. I actually, I would say, I think we're going to get one upset of the two, and I don't know which one it's going to be. I think it's more likely to be the Islanders over the Hurricanes. The Islanders are just, we'll talk more about this tomorrow, they're just an interesting type of team that tends to, when we get these crazy, like, who could have seen this coming runs in the postseason, it is remarkable how many of them are tied to either first-year head coaches or mid-season coaching changes they account for like a quarter of the stanley cup finalists the last 20 years i mean it's really remarkable stuff how often this happens and that's a few teams to be fair you could argue it's edmonton making a coaching change in the middle of the year um you could argue it's a team like nashville who hard pivoted to a different head coach this year andrew brunette like but it's the islanders like that they're definitely a team that's like that pedigree the last couple years a lot better than what they showed so far uh that have maybe the best goalie pairing in the postseason like talent wise and maybe the best goalie talent was um sure winnipeg would have something to say about that so i like the islanders kind of as a concept the hurricanes won the season series the hurricanes are very good kind of like the islanders to at least drag out that series rangers caps i have no idea i think the rangers steamroll them but like if i had to bet the series you would just take the big price because it's hockey not a strong opinion there we could talk about the west i like winnipeg and the other series in the west tomorrow but we can talk about that tomorrow yeah and i and we talked about this off air i've changed my tune”
Florida beat Tampa Bay 4 games to 1 in the 2024 first-round series, winning Games 1, 2, 3 and 5 (NHL.com). (Panthers won series 4-1)
“But it was really a work in progress and not extensive. And this is the sport that I would say I put the most resources into retooling and finding new historical criteria, thinking about more deeply. And I really like the stuff that I have. And I'll just say it is a certainty that I will be betting a good amount of money on the Bruins to win the Stanley Cup this year. And part of that is what happened last night. regular season series in hockey versus any other sport, baseball, whatever. It's every sport's different with how they do this stuff. The regular season series in hockey is insanely important for who wins the postseason series between the teams. It matters more than like anything you could ever imagine. How did the regular season series go? Is there a big mismatch between the two teams? In the NBA, it's irrelevant almost. Depending on when the games were played, you would toss it out. In a lot of cases in the NFL, you'd only play your division teams twice. So who cares? When you crush a team in the regular season, it means something. And it means that when you play them in the postseason, it's going to go the same way. And we'll do a lot of the data on this tomorrow. The Bruins struggled tremendously against the Lightning this year. They were not a team that the Bruins wanted to see in the playoffs. The Panthers are much better suited to see the Lightning in the playoffs. They won the season series against them. Also, the Panthers are just better anyway. So the Bruins took themselves out of a first-round series where they were, I think, likely to lose, actually. And I don't think Tampa's going anywhere in the playoffs. I actually hate them this year, but I think they would beat Boston, and I think that's problematic if you want to bet Boston. And it takes Boston out of that, and it puts them into a first-round and second-round series. There are two teams this year, only two that the Bruins went 4-0 against in the regular season. The first one is Toronto, and the second one is Florida, and that will be their first-round and their second-round opponents in the postseason, I think, in all likelihood, because I like Florida a lot against Toronto. And so things have broken in an insanely positive way for the Bruins, who I don't think are the best team, but have now inherited this path. And then who knows what happens in the top half? I think the Rangers get tripped up by somebody. I just don't know who it is. Probably not first round. Maybe it's the Islanders, whatever. And the Bruins find themselves in the Stanley Cup final by basically beating two teams that all they've done this year is beat them. And I don't think the West is very good this year. And that's how you end up with the Bruins as the Stanley Cup champion. I don't even know if they're that good. And that's how you end up with that from a team quality standpoint, historical criteria. There are only a couple teams that pass every test, and the Bruins are one of them. So I think what actually happened yesterday was crazy. I didn't think it was gonna happen. I wasn't gonna bet the Bruins in the first round and see what happens, but now they're off Tampa and they're on to Toronto and Florida. And for them, even though Toronto and Florida are very good, for them that is extremely advantageous based on what we know about how the regular season series matter And not just the regular season series in this particular matchup because I don know how you can be like a hockey fan of any repute and look at Boston versus Toronto. And almost like, obviously it matters who's playing in the games. Like if Boston's like tossing out like Cam Neely and Ray Bork at their current age, it's not going to go well against Toronto. But Boston against Toronto, the Bruins have like voodoo against the Maple Leafs. Voodoo! They've played like four times in the past 10 years, and the Bruins kill them every time they play in the playoffs, including like a Toronto epic yak job like eight years ago in a game seven on the road in Boston. Like Boston not just owned them in the regular season, they've owned them in the postseason as well. Boston's going to be minus 120 here. We were talking about this off air. Likely, both of us think, and we'll see what announcement they eventually, who Jim Montgomery is going to play, think it's going to be Jeremy Swayman, who has been like the Toronto specialist this season. and plays in all the Maple Leafs games and shuts them down in all the games, to the point that we think it actually pisses off Linus Olmark that Swayman plays in these games. I think it's probably going to be Swayman against Samsonov in Toronto. I like the Bruins also in this series, laying a short price against the Maple Leafs. Maybe we'll hit one other series on the other side. The Rangers are a huge favorite against the Capitals, deservedly so. Two and two against them in the regular season, though. The home team winning each of the four games. God. Yeah. Can you imagine? Yes. Ovechkin just like dancing on your grave. But like, you know, like Charlie Lindgren's played like every game in goal. They had to like survive this gauntlet to get there. Like, why can't they win game one? I really suck as a Ranger fan. A little bit more on the NHL postseason on the other side. We'll give you all our bets for tonight, including the Heat and the Sixers. And Tyler Morales gives you all his bets for so much drama at the RBC. We'll be right back with You Better You Bet Presented by BetMGM On the BetQL Network You Bet Brought to you by BetMGM With Nick Kostos and Ken Barkley On the BetQL Network Alright, a couple thank yous for us to dole out A little bit more on the NHL postseason Tyler's bets for the RBC Heritage And our bets for tonight But some thank yous to dole out first First, thank you to Ken Barkley for returning to the show Great to have Ken back after a well-deserved week vacation Two great guests, Dane Brugler from The Athletic and Odyssey Sports NFL Insider, our pal Brian Baldinger. Our executive producer, Alex Fasano. Our technical director, Tyler Morales. Our engineer, Jake the Snake Hassan. And our video producer, God's Perfect Creation, Brian Gurch. Alex, type in the chat, when is Mike – so Mike's getting married this weekend. Like when is the next time Mike Brown is working on the show? Just like, yeah. Oh, he's back next Wednesday. Good for him. All right, so no Mike Brown until next Wednesday. We'll see how it goes. But thanks to Brian Gurch for filling in today. BetMGM Tonight is coming up after us, a four-hour live betting extravaganza. So we touched on Florida and Boston and their matchups in the first round. Ken, you said you like Florida against Tampa. You like Boston against Toronto. I definitely concur on Boston against Toronto. Anything else for now? We'll do more on the NHL postseason tomorrow. Only one Western Conference series confirmed as of now, Winnipeg against Colorado. Wow. I like Bruins and Panthers to win and play each other in what, for me, at least the way I do my stuff, will be by far the most high leverage series for who wins the Stanley Cup. Both of those teams stand out to me more than basically every other team in the league as likely winners, and they're on a collision course to play each other very early. obviously a rematch of the 1-8 series with the Bruins looking for revenge from losing as a historically good team last year to the Panthers who went to the cup final maybe the Bruins can get the revenge this time move on to the conference final where they play maybe the Rangers maybe another team so just that Panthers Bruins series is like kind of everything for me and how I think it's going to play out Boston's prices are just way better and I actually think they're more likely to beat Toronto than Florida is to beat Tampa it's part of why I like them at their price to win the Stanley Cup. The other series that we know in the East, I have much more lukewarm opinions on. I actually, I would say, I think we're going to get one upset of the two, and I don't know which one it's going to be. I think it's more likely to be the Islanders over the Hurricanes. The Islanders are just, we'll talk more about this tomorrow, they're just an interesting type of team that tends to, when we get these crazy, like, who could have seen this coming runs in the postseason, it is remarkable how many of them are tied to either first-year head coaches or mid-season coaching changes they account for like a quarter of the stanley cup finalists the last 20 years i mean it's really remarkable stuff how often this happens and that's a few teams to be fair you could argue it's edmonton making a coaching change in the middle of the year um you could argue it's a team like nashville who hard pivoted to a different head coach this year andrew brunette like but it's the islanders like that they're definitely a team that's like that pedigree the last couple years a lot better than what they showed so far uh that have maybe the best goalie pairing in the postseason like talent wise and maybe the best goalie talent was um sure winnipeg would have something to say about that so i like the islanders kind of as a concept the hurricanes won the season series the hurricanes are very good kind of like the islanders to at least drag out that series rangers caps i have no idea i think the rangers steamroll them but like if i had to bet the series you would just take the big price because it's hockey not a strong opinion there we could talk about the west i like winnipeg and the other series in the west tomorrow but we can talk about that tomorrow yeah and i and we talked about this off air i've changed my tune”
Boston beat Toronto 4 games to 3 in the 2024 first-round series, clinching in a Game 7 overtime win (NHL.com). (Bruins won series 4-3)
“you could argue it's edmonton making a coaching change in the middle of the year um you could argue it's a team like nashville who hard pivoted to a different head coach this year andrew brunette like but it's the islanders like that they're definitely a team that's like that pedigree the last couple years a lot better than what they showed so far uh that have maybe the best goalie pairing in the postseason like talent wise and maybe the best goalie talent was um sure winnipeg would have something to say about that so i like the islanders kind of as a concept the hurricanes won the season series the hurricanes are very good kind of like the islanders to at least drag out that series rangers caps i have no idea i think the rangers steamroll them but like if i had to bet the series you would just take the big price because it's hockey not a strong opinion there we could talk about the west i like winnipeg and the other series in the west tomorrow but we can talk about that tomorrow yeah and i and we talked about this off air i've changed my tune last week on the show i said i would like colorado did like a little more like work and research on that series and just like to keep it as surface level as possible just for right now like the the goal tending advantage that winnipeg has in that series is absolutely massive like georgiev save percentage starts with an eight winnipeg has the vesino winner like the future vesino winner here in Connor Hallibuck. I'll be with you on the Winnipeg Jets. Winnipeg also swept them in the regular season series, so I'll be on Winnipeg with you. And even with what you were just saying about, you know, how, where did these teams come from that go on these runs in the playoffs? I think the one that I always think about when it comes to that”
Colorado beat Winnipeg 4 games to 1 in the 2024 first-round series after dropping Game 1 (NHL.com). (Avalanche won series 4-1)
“I think if you're the Magic, like you're not terribly displeased about this series of events, getting to play Cleveland. Cleveland probably happy to play Orlando. The Cavs are favored in the series with home court. Cleveland about minus 190. Magic plus 155. Game one is on Saturday from Cleveland. The Cavs a four-and-a-half point favorite. Total 207-and-a-half. I mean I don't think like the TV ratings for this series are going to be like sensational or anything but I find it to be really interesting and I'm fascinated Ken what your thought is going to be and who you're going to like in this series with the Cavs and the Magic lay it on us oh man uh well this could be like a pretty big egg on my face kind of a prediction I love Cleveland in this series it's like my favorite bet by far it's not even close um I laid games i bet them to win the series can't wait to do the show the next couple weeks as the magic win 86 82 when donald mitchell already talks about the next team he wants to play for yeah if it makes it maybe it'll be orlando if it makes you feel better it makes you feel worse uh i said the same thing on monday that i i love the calves and i think they're gonna win like 4-1 yeah it just um this was before i read that article while i was on vacation just because i just looked at the two teams i go i think this is not representative of how they played the entire year and is much more representative of like how they played the last two weeks and we know historically like i didn't have to look i knew this already like how you close is so irrelevant to how this all goes that we have had champions conference champions teams that make deep playoff runs that all suck the last like six weeks of the season it happens all the time the season's really long the games end up mattering less even if you want to argue the team is playing for something they inherently know the season is long and they're playing for less so it's just like you can't fall in love with these like the the late bloomer kind of closing team which we do in college basketball it's not as pronounced in the nba but there are lots of like i mean the warriors won a title i think the warriors in the second half of a season one time won like 41 of their games and won the nba title I mean embarrassingly bad stuff and still won so I just I try not to now look if it's a health thing like maybe Mitchell's just not there that's different Kawhi Leonard Giannis like it's this is a player availability question this is not a how you close the season question but if if everyone's playing then like I have to I have to think they're way more likely to win now we bring in the article that we read the other day because we did all the other series the same thing maybe Donovan Mitchell gets like a third team all nba not maybe he doesn't otherwise neither team has top end talent in terms of this year's all nba that would be reflected in it um donovan mitchell's the best player in this series and it's i don't think it's close yet but it'll be close eventually because bank arrow is going to be awesome um playoff experience and this is the second thing that really matters and this is where teams like orlando come up woefully short all the time and that's why they don't ever win series in the playoffs teams like this they are by a mile the least experienced team in the postseason it's like them and the thunder which is funny because one's a one seed and one's in this kind of a series but the thunder are much better and have a much better best player who's like ready to win playoff series magic just aren't ready yet they're not even close this is like uh this is like a have fun get to game six game seven lose kind of a series now i hope it's less than that but that's like the best case scenario i think um and then net rating some of the this season metrics end up being a toss-up even when considering that the calves had a lot of injuries so i just i know you're laying a big price it seems so on like it just it seems disgusting to want to click the button it's i'm betting the calf that i just haven't watched this team the last month this is the and i'm betting them at this price that's what i'm doing and i am and it's because a lot of things that tend to be true in the postseason kind of directly apply to this series and i think i know why i'm getting a break on the price and i'm okay to click the button knowing that hoping the calves play a little bit better than uh than what they've shown us and it feels like like the two teams are a little similar except like cleveland's better like cleveland's like a better version more experienced version of orlando is and maybe like orlando more next year but like a year of playoff experience for the magic but not this year uh when you started your answer there i'm like oh my god it's gonna take over when you were like i'm gonna have egg on my face so he's gonna pick the magic and then you're like i like the calves to like slaughter them i agree magic's an easy bet to sell content wise magic's so easy the price is extremely palatable people hate the calves because of how they played recently the magic are like young and it's bank hero and franz wagner and like jonathan isaac's like the like the nba nerds favorite player of all time right now because he's playing so well defensively and sugs is really fun and they're new so they're always going to be appealing um i i've like when i've watched the magic play this year i really like watching them play they played a really competitive game against the celtics way earlier this year that i really enjoyed i think they won the game actually um but like that's just the way the playoffs generally go i think the difference between the teams in a playoff series and that's even with bicker staff and i totally get not liking that part of it too also how many postseason series has jamal mostly been the head coach of so like let's calm down on that angle too um i just it feels like cleveland here and i know nobody wants to bet it but like i do um last note here on this series then we can do a little nhl um if people out there like orlando in the series or like like Orlando game by games let's say you like the magic in game one like you meaning the person listening or watching this right now um I don't know like who on Orlando is going to score really besides for Bancaro so if you like Orlando like don't you don't you have to like bet Bancaro's points over so the thought being like Bancaro needs to score like 30 points for Orlando to win these games against Cleveland or is the thought that you just bet the under in every single game because they win through their defense that obviously their calling cards their coaches calling card it been you know you have Suggs and Isaac who are although they will not both make the teams are like all NBA defense level talent in terms of how they're playing right now like that's how they win and they win because Mitchell's not 100% and Mobley's a weird fit still and none of this looks right I just like the over the balance of the season like the Cavs are much better than this team and typically doesn't always have to be true typically in the playoffs i will try to do in over the balance of the season this is better than this as opposed to from april 1st to april 13th this team was better than this or from march 1st even to april 13th it just usually doesn't work out the way that you want where like the hot team goes into the playoffs and they do all this damage and they win these series usually just doesn't work like that playoff series just are they tend to be different this one doesn't have to be i could have egg on my face just uh i'm happy to at Cleveland here. So the bets that you've made right now on series, and we'll get to the NHL in a second, like I laid Phoenix against Minnesota. I love Cleveland minus games against the Orlando Magic. I haven't like played the Bucs and like maybe I shouldn't. Maybe I should just like listen to everyone that likes Indiana in the series, including you, and just stay away from that one. I haven't figured out a way to bet Denver yet, and I might take your Lakers advice, and Mavericks Clippers is kind of up in the air because of the Kawhi situation. uh what series bets like have you made or you anticipate making here of the series we know about right now uh i'm i am definitely i bet the calves to win the series and i bet some alts on them those are in those are made already uh i will likely bet the suns for something very small”
Cleveland beat Orlando 4 games to 3 in the 2024 first-round series, winning Game 7 106-94 after trailing by 18 (ESPN game recap). (Cavaliers won series 4-3)
“All right, Ken, let's hit both NBA games to start both of the play-in games. We will begin with the Heat and the Sixers in Philadelphia, where the market at betmgm sees Philly as a five-and-a-half point home favorite, total 208.5. And then we've got the Bulls, three-and-a-half at home against the Hawks, total 222.5. Bets for either play-in game tonight in the East. Yeah, one bet for me in each game. really happy actually with something i'm seeing in the market for heat sixers where the over is getting bet for some reason uh which is great because i like the opposite side of that i like the under in that game typically these play-in games have had a really strong tendency to go under both games yesterday went under their totals hawks bulls makes me a little nervous because of the hawks and like their tendency to not want to do that we had a famous wizards play in game a few years ago where like game flies over because it scored a billion points again just like the hawks are weird i don't know if they're going to apply to this this game definitely applies to this kind of ten this game is going to be played at the slowest pace imaginable uh under 209 is now the best number in the market on that if i had to bet the game i'd probably take the points but i i think philly is very likely to win i like the under uh and then i like the hawks in the second game plus the points and not money line uh the bulls are addicted to playing close games as often as possible and you get a possession with the other team this seems like not a no-brainer win just like an easy bet to click are they like the best team in the clutch of like the word of like i got i hope the voters don't think the best player in the clutch yeah i i actually so can the total in that game has gotten bet up such a degree that i'm i'll actually play the under and i'm gonna”
PHI 105, MIA 104 — Philadelphia beat Miami 105-104, 209 combined points, exactly matching the 209 total (ESPN box score).
“i like the knights”
Vancouver 4, Vegas 3 — Vancouver Canucks beat Vegas Golden Knights 4-3 on April 8, 2024, so the Golden Knights moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“so I'll take the Nats”
Washington 8, San Francisco 1 — Washington Nationals beat San Francisco Giants 8-1 on April 8, 2024, so the Nationals moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“i'll bet the dodgers”
Los Angeles 4, Minnesota 2 — Los Angeles Dodgers beat Minnesota Twins 4-2 on April 8, 2024, so the Dodgers moneyline won (ESPN box score).
“I am really just putting in some Purdue to get my money back and maybe a little bit more”
UConn 75, Purdue 60 — UConn beat Purdue 75-60 in the national championship game on April 8, 2024, so the Purdue moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“I have the A's now I have one and a half and money line like three different times”
DET 5, OAK 4 — Tigers beat Athletics 5-4 on 4/5/2024; Oakland's 1-run loss was within the +1.5 run line (ESPN box score).
“I have the A's now I have one and a half and money line like three different times”
DET 5, OAK 4 — Tigers beat Athletics 5-4 on 4/5/2024, so Oakland's moneyline lost outright (ESPN box score).
“I have still bet these games I bet the Reds”
NYM 3, CIN 2 — Mets beat Reds 3-2 on 4/5/2024, so Cincinnati's moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Nationals”
PHI 4, WSH 0 — Phillies shut out the Nationals 4-0 on 4/5/2024, so Washington's moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“how do you not bet on wade phillips again like two and a half against a team that we don't think is very good”
SA 20, MEM 19 — San Antonio beat Memphis 20-19 with a fourth-quarter comeback on 4/6/2024; the Brahmas' outright win covered the +2.5 spread (theufl.com).
“yes i want to do the renegades the panthers and the roughnecks all”
STL 27, ARL 24 — St. Louis beat Arlington 27-24 on 4/6/2024, so the Renegades' moneyline lost (FOX Sports box score).
“yes i want to do the renegades the panthers and the roughnecks all”
BHM 20, MICH 13 — Birmingham beat Michigan 20-13 on 4/7/2024 at Ford Field, so the Panthers' moneyline lost (FOX Sports).
“yes i want to do the renegades the panthers and the roughnecks all”
DC 23, HOU 18 — DC beat Houston 23-18 on Jordan Ta'amu's late touchdown pass on 4/7/2024, so the Roughnecks' moneyline lost (FOX Sports).
“i will play parlay her over with yukon on the money line”
IOWA 71, UCONN 69 — Iowa beat UConn 71-69 in the 2024 Women's Final Four on 4/5/2024, so the UConn moneyline leg lost, sinking the parlay regardless of the Bueckers points leg (ESPN box score).
“i like the brewers i think this number needs to be more”
MIL 6, SEA 5 — Brewers beat Mariners 6-5 on 4/5/2024 when Seattle's bullpen walked in the winning run, so Milwaukee's moneyline won (ESPN recap).
“I'm going to lay Vegas on the puck line against Arizona”
ARI 7, VGK 4 — Coyotes rallied to beat the Golden Knights 7-4 on 4/5/2024, so Vegas's -1.5 puck line lost (ESPN box score).
“if you have a lot of bedard like maybe cover a little if you don't and you have nothing which was me now i have some faber”
Connor Bedard won the 2023-24 Calder Memorial Trophy as NHL Rookie of the Year; Brock Faber was a top-three finalist but did not win (NHL.com).
“I still like the Guardians in the game.”
4-2 — Cleveland Guardians beat Minnesota Twins 4-2 on 4/4/2024 at Target Field (ESPN box score), so the Guardians moneyline won.
“four and a half was the number i bet under on earlier”
4-3 through 5 innings; final 8-5 Cardinals — In the Marlins-Cardinals game on 4/4/2024, Miami led 4-3 through 5 innings (7 combined runs) per the ESPN linescore, well over the 4.5 first-five-innings total, so the under lost (Cardinals won 8-5 with a five-run 7th).
“we bet the nationals before the game starts”
7-4 — Pirates beat Nationals 7-4 on April 4, 2024; Nationals moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“i'll just take 170 against the royals”
10-1 — Royals beat White Sox 10-1 on April 4, 2024; White Sox moneyline loses (ESPN box score).
“I will lay the puck line with Winnipeg, which is a pretty good plus price right now.”
5-2 — Jets beat Flames 5-2 on April 4, 2024; Winnipeg's +3 margin covers the -1.5 puck line (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Reds in that game with Frankie Montas against Zack Wheeler.”
CIN 4, PHI 1 — Reds beat Phillies 4-1 on 4/3/2024 behind Frankie Montas; Cincinnati moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“i've been really really really active in this market for a couple weeks betting both Naz Reid and Norman Powell to win”
Naz Reid was named the 2023-24 Kia NBA Sixth Man of the Year, per NBA.com. (NBA Sixth Man of the Year: Naz Reid)
“i've been really really really active in this market for a couple weeks betting both Naz Reid and Norman Powell to win”
Naz Reid, not Norman Powell, was named the 2023-24 Kia NBA Sixth Man of the Year, per NBA.com. (NBA Sixth Man of the Year: Naz Reid)
“play on the Panthers tonight. It's like minus one 30 on the road against Toronto.”
TOR 6, FLA 4 — The Panthers lost to the Maple Leafs 6-4 on April 1, 2024, so the Florida moneyline busted (ESPN box score).
“and i i think even bet into this too like i've been betting kobe and jalen williams pretty aggressively now for like a week and i don't i don't see that stopping now with with what's happening”
Tyrese Maxey, not Coby White, was named the 2023-24 Kia NBA Most Improved Player, per NBA.com. (NBA Most Improved Player: Tyrese Maxey)
“and i i think even bet into this too like i've been betting kobe and jalen williams pretty aggressively now for like a week and i don't i don't see that stopping now with with what's happening”
Tyrese Maxey, not Jalen Williams, was named the 2023-24 Kia NBA Most Improved Player, per NBA.com. (NBA Most Improved Player: Tyrese Maxey)
“I'm with you here. I'll take six and a half with the Brahma Bulls.”
27-12 — San Antonio beat DC 27-12 in its UFL season opener on Mar 31, 2024, covering +6.5 by a 15-point margin (TheUFL.com).
“I bet Vlad to hit a home run and then I get a lot of money when the Nuggets win the title.”
Both legs failed: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 2-for-3 with no home run in Toronto's 8-2 loss to Tampa Bay on Mar 29, 2024 (ESPN box score), and the Denver Nuggets were eliminated by the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 7 of the West semifinals, 98-90, on May 19, 2024, never winning the 2024 title (ESPN box score).
“I bet Toronto again in that game.”
8-2 — Tampa Bay beat Toronto 8-2 on Mar 29, 2024; the Blue Jays lost the moneyline outright (ESPN box score).
“I'm gonna play Cleveland and maybe I'm like the sucker here.”
6-4 — Cleveland beat Oakland 6-4 on Mar 29, 2024; the Guardians won the moneyline outright (ESPN box score).
“i'll bet iowa state”
72-69 — Illinois beat Iowa State 72-69 in the Sweet 16 on March 28, 2024 (ESPN box score); Iowa State moneyline busts.
“I think it was like eight plus nine plus 10 plus were all really good prices.”
8-0 — Shane Bieber struck out 11 over 6 shutout innings in Cleveland's 8-0 Opening Day win over Oakland on March 28, 2024 (ESPN box score), clearing the 8+ line. (Shane Bieber 11 strikeouts)
“I think it was like eight plus nine plus 10 plus were all really good prices.”
8-0 — Shane Bieber struck out 11 over 6 shutout innings in Cleveland's 8-0 Opening Day win over Oakland on March 28, 2024 (ESPN box score), clearing the 9+ line. (Shane Bieber 11 strikeouts)
“I think it was like eight plus nine plus 10 plus were all really good prices.”
8-0 — Shane Bieber struck out 11 over 6 shutout innings in Cleveland's 8-0 Opening Day win over Oakland on March 28, 2024 (ESPN box score), clearing the 10+ line. (Shane Bieber 11 strikeouts)
“I think I'm going to two-team Moneyline Parlay, the Stars on the road at the Canucks, with the Avalanche at home against my Rangers.”
Parlay busts: Dallas Stars beat Vancouver 3-1 (won), but New York Rangers beat Colorado 3-2 in a shootout so the Avalanche moneyline leg lost (ESPN box scores).
“I will have Oregon Moneyline here for something, too. I really think they're going to win this game.”
86-73 — Creighton beat Oregon 86-73 in double overtime in the NCAA Tournament second round; Oregon moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“So plus 14 and a half over 137 and a half correlated maybe for a couple bucks. Very small bet for me.”
92-67 — Baylor beat Colgate 92-67 (margin 25): Colgate +14.5 lost, but the 159-point combined total cleared the 137.5 over, so one leg of the correlated parlay lost (ESPN).
“a bet that I made before the tournament started. I actually don't think I talked about this we I talked about it a lot last year and it comes up with the paper tigers all the time I have uh three seed to not make the final four”
The 2024 Final Four consisted of No. 1 seeds UConn and Purdue, No. 4 seed Alabama, and No. 11 seed NC State — no No. 3 seed reached the Final Four, so the bet won (Wikipedia).
“I'll have a small bet on Charleston to win the game.”
109-96 — Alabama beat Charleston 109-96, so Charleston's moneyline bet lost (ESPN).
“And I'll have a couple bucks on Colgate Moneyline also.”
92-67 — Baylor beat Colgate 92-67 in the NCAA Tournament first round; Colgate moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“So I ended up settling on Duke at price here. I see a plus 650”
NCST 76, DUKE 64 — 11-seed NC State beat 4-seed Duke 76-64 in the South Region final (Elite Eight) on 3/31/24, so Duke did not win the South Region (ESPN).
“I'll bet the first half under probably first game of the day uh under 59”
31-24 — Michigan State led Mississippi State 31-24 at halftime (combined 55) on 3/21/24, under the 59 first-half total (ESPN box score).
“I bet 9.5 like five minutes ago in this game”
DUQ 71, BYU 67 — Duquesne beat BYU 71-67 in the NCAA tournament first round, a margin of +4; Duquesne +9.5 covers (ESPN).
“I'm going to lay Creighton at 12.”
CREI 77, AKR 60 — Creighton beat Akron 77-60 in the NCAA tournament first round, a margin of +17; Creighton -12 covers (ESPN).
“people know I bet the Flyers to make the playoffs at like a really big price.”
The Flyers were eliminated from 2023-24 NHL playoff contention after a 2-1 loss to the Washington Capitals at Wells Fargo Center on April 16, 2024, finishing outside a playoff spot (NHL.com).
“So, like, all right, like, what do you want to do with the second overall pick? I don't know. McCarthy. What do you want to do with the third overall pick? I don't know McCarthy what do you want to do with the fourth overall pick I don't know McCarthy because he's like 15 30 to one to go in all these spots and it kind of seems like it's a hodgepodge as opposed to this like really clear pecking order so it's not like oh Ken thinks McCarthy's going to go top four no I don't know who's going to go top four I'm just betting the huge number then on McCarthy if that's the case”
J.J. McCarthy was selected 10th overall by the Minnesota Vikings in the 2024 NFL Draft, not 2nd overall (NFL.com).
“So, like, all right, like, what do you want to do with the second overall pick? I don't know. McCarthy. What do you want to do with the third overall pick? I don't know McCarthy what do you want to do with the fourth overall pick I don't know McCarthy because he's like 15 30 to one to go in all these spots and it kind of seems like it's a hodgepodge as opposed to this like really clear pecking order so it's not like oh Ken thinks McCarthy's going to go top four no I don't know who's going to go top four I'm just betting the huge number then on McCarthy if that's the case”
J.J. McCarthy was selected 10th overall by the Minnesota Vikings in the 2024 NFL Draft, not 3rd overall (NFL.com).
“So, like, all right, like, what do you want to do with the second overall pick? I don't know. McCarthy. What do you want to do with the third overall pick? I don't know McCarthy what do you want to do with the fourth overall pick I don't know McCarthy because he's like 15 30 to one to go in all these spots and it kind of seems like it's a hodgepodge as opposed to this like really clear pecking order so it's not like oh Ken thinks McCarthy's going to go top four no I don't know who's going to go top four I'm just betting the huge number then on McCarthy if that's the case”
J.J. McCarthy was selected 10th overall by the Minnesota Vikings in the 2024 NFL Draft, not 4th overall (NFL.com).
“I did bet both Gonzaga and Texas to win the region.”
72-66 — Purdue beat Tennessee 72-66 in the Elite Eight to win the 2024 NCAA Midwest Region; Gonzaga did not win the region (ESPN box score).
“I did bet both Gonzaga and Texas to win the region.”
72-66 — Purdue beat Tennessee 72-66 in the Elite Eight to win the 2024 NCAA Midwest Region; Texas did not win the region (ESPN box score).
“I have chosen to bet into the tournament market to start being extremely heavy on UConn and Arizona, and that's it.”
75-60 — UConn beat Purdue 75-60 on April 8, 2024 to win the NCAA men's basketball national championship (ESPN final score).
“I have chosen to bet into the tournament market to start being extremely heavy on UConn and Arizona, and that's it.”
75-60 — UConn beat Purdue 75-60 on April 8, 2024 to win the national championship; Arizona did not reach the title game (ESPN final score).
“My only bet for tonight is I'm betting against the Flyers. Like every game of this schedule stretch, Couturier not going to play tonight. It says coach's decision. I've got to read more about this. Toronto at a short price and then whatever else you like in hockey.”
4-3 — Flyers beat Maple Leafs 4-3 on 3/19/24; Toronto lost on the moneyline (ESPN final score).
“But what's done is we'll take Arlington coming up a little later.”
UT Arlington 87, Tarleton State 84 — UT Arlington beat Tarleton State 87-84 in the WAC tournament semifinal on Brandyn Talbot's go-ahead 3-pointer, covering the moneyline (ESPN box score).
“they're playing San Jose, right? Yes, they're hosting the Sharks. And they are minus three, yeah, like, we have to play San Jose, have to.”
PIT 6, SJ 3 — Pittsburgh Penguins beat San Jose Sharks 6-3 on 3/14/24 (ESPN box score); the Sharks moneyline lost.
“starting tonight columbus is home dogs a home dog against ottawa oh yeah i think i'm i think i'm on elvis tonight”
OTT 3, CBJ 2 — Ottawa Senators beat Columbus Blue Jackets 3-2 on 3/14/24 (ESPN box score); the Blue Jackets moneyline lost.
“Total is six. No way. Here's me pointing down aggressively. Yes.”
BUF 4, NYI 0 — Buffalo Sabres beat New York Islanders 4-0 on 3/14/24 (ESPN box score); combined total of 4 goes under the 6 total.
“11 and a half on the road at portland i was looking up alts at the start of the show like what's minus 20, what's minus 30. You can bet those things. The payouts are massive. I think this is a game that sets up to have that kind of potential. And I like the Knicks a lot tonight.”
105-93 — New York Knicks beat Portland Trail Blazers 105-93 on March 14, 2024, a 12-point margin that covers the -11.5 spread (ESPN).
“Dallas plus 11. And I actually think this is kind of a bad run of play for the Thunder currently played terribly against Indiana the other night. So let's play Dallas just to keep the game close.”
126-119 — Oklahoma City Thunder beat Dallas Mavericks 126-119 on March 14, 2024; the Mavericks lost by only 7, covering the +11 spread (ESPN).
“I like Toronto tonight. They've had a million days off. Second game, no Tortorella.”
6-2 — Toronto Maple Leafs beat Philadelphia Flyers 6-2 on March 14, 2024, so the Maple Leafs moneyline wins (ESPN).
“And I will play Auston Matthews I'll play two plus goals.”
Auston Matthews scored 1 goal (his 55th of the season) in Toronto's 6-2 win over Philadelphia on March 14, 2024, falling short of the 2+ goals prop (ESPN). (Auston Matthews 1 goal)
“I'll put a couple bucks on hat trick.”
Auston Matthews scored only 1 goal in Toronto's 6-2 win over Philadelphia on March 14, 2024, not a hat trick (ESPN). (Auston Matthews 1 goal)
“Let's play, we'll play Fordham plus five and a half here. We'll maybe see if we can keep this rolling.”
62-69 — Fordham led VCU 38-37 at halftime, but VCU won the second half 32-24 (final VCU 69, Fordham 62), an 8-point second-half margin that exceeds Fordham's +5.5 (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Browns and the Steelers at really big numbers”
PHI 40, KC 22 — The Philadelphia Eagles defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX on Feb. 9, 2025; the Cleveland Browns were not in the game (ESPN box score).
“I bet the Browns and the Steelers at really big numbers”
PHI 40, KC 22 — The Philadelphia Eagles defeated the Kansas City Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX on Feb. 9, 2025; the Pittsburgh Steelers were not in the game (ESPN box score).
“I am also playing Xander, and it's just because of the price”
Scottie Scheffler won the 2024 Players Championship at 20-under; Xander Schauffele finished T2 at -19, not a win (ESPN leaderboard). (2024 Players Championship winner: Scottie Scheffler (-20); Schauffele T2 (-19))
“So I like Xander also, and I like Eric Cole, and I like Sahith Theegala.”
Scottie Scheffler won the 2024 Players Championship at 20-under; Sahith Theegala did not win (ESPN leaderboard). (2024 Players Championship winner: Scottie Scheffler (-20))
“So I like Xander also, and I like Eric Cole, and I like Sahith Theegala.”
Scottie Scheffler won the 2024 Players Championship at 20-under; Eric Cole did not win (ESPN leaderboard). (2024 Players Championship winner: Scottie Scheffler (-20))
“I paired Scottie Scheffler with the Nuggets to win the NBA title for a couple bucks. Like, hey, if Scheffler wins, now I got this ticket on the Denver Nuggets at like 30 to 1”
BOS 106, DAL 88 — Scheffler's Players Championship win hit (ESPN leaderboard), but the Boston Celtics, not the Denver Nuggets, won the 2024 NBA Finals, beating Dallas 106-88 in Game 5 on June 17 to take the series 4-1 (ESPN), so the paired bet lost.
“I paired Scottie Scheffler with the Super Bowl matchups we talked about in the last segment.”
PHI 40, KC 22 — Scheffler's Players Championship win hit (ESPN leaderboard), but Super Bowl LIX was Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles (Eagles won 40-22), not Chiefs-Lions, so the paired Chiefs-Lions matchup never happened and the bet lost (ESPN box score).
“Same thing with the Chiefs and the Rams.”
PHI 40, KC 22 — Scheffler's Players Championship win hit (ESPN leaderboard), but Super Bowl LIX was Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles (Eagles won 40-22), not Chiefs-Rams, so the paired Chiefs-Rams matchup never happened and the bet lost (ESPN box score).
“Bulls plus five. I think that's the only NBA bet for me tonight.”
CHI 132, IND 129 — Chicago Bulls beat Indiana Pacers 132-129 in overtime on 3/13/24, a +3 margin that covers the Bulls' +5 spread (ESPN box score).
“you still get Vancouver at like minus 115”
COL 4, VAN 3 — Colorado Avalanche beat Vancouver Canucks 4-3 in overtime on 3/13/24 (ESPN box score); the Canucks moneyline lost.
“And I actually think that that like makes it a bet. I actually think it makes them more likely to win the tournament just because of what's happening with Kansas in the first game that Baylor will play.”
Iowa State won the 2024 Big 12 men's basketball tournament (its 6th title), defeating BYU in the final; Baylor did not win (ESPN Big 12 tournament winners list).
“you are essentially making a choice between Tennessee and Auburn for who you want to bet to win this tournament and in most places Auburn's price is much, much, much better for your wallet than Tennessee's is. I think I would bet Auburn, and that's it. All right, so Auburn, yeah, like plus 250, plus 260.”
Auburn 86-67 Florida — Auburn beat Florida 86-67 to win the 2024 SEC men's basketball tournament championship.
“Hockey, I agree with you on the Islanders. We talked about this off the air. We're going to do a segment maybe on the Island. See how the Islanders, if you're like watching, you spent Stanley Cup futures, you're just interested. Pay attention to the Islanders and see if they win this game and continue their momentum. If they do, I think we'll have a lot to talk about with them later in the week. I like him tonight with Sorokin starting anyway.”
LA 3-0 NYI — The Kings shut out the Islanders 3-0; the Islanders moneyline bet lost.
“I think it's kind of like, I think it's money line on both for at least a little bit too.”
PHX 120, TOR 113 — Suns beat Raptors 120-113; Toronto moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“How are the Wemben Yamala Spurs covering 11 on the road? How are they going to do that? I have no idea. Yours was great. but it's not our job to figure that out yeah it's like it doesn't it doesn't it's just gonna happen”
SAC 131, SA 129 — Kings beat Spurs 131-129; San Antonio lost by only 2, covering +11 (ESPN box score).
“I think it's kind of like, I think it's money line on both for at least a little bit too.”
SAC 131, SA 129 — Kings beat Spurs 131-129; San Antonio moneyline busts (ESPN box score).
“But Markstrom is definitely going to play tonight in that they're now out to like plus 135 or more at Tampa Bay. So Calgary would be the bet for tonight, similar to the Ducks last night.”
CGY 6, TB 3 — Calgary Flames beat Tampa Bay Lightning 6-3, cashing the Flames moneyline (ESPN box score).
“I think we have to at least play the Flyers plus one and a half, maybe to win the game.”
PHI 2, FLA 1 — Flyers beat Panthers 2-1 outright on a late Garnet Hathaway goal, covering Philadelphia's +1.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Anaheim plus 165, plus 170. It's the IS for tonight, and I think it's in hockey.”
2-1 — The Anaheim Ducks beat the Ottawa Senators 2-1 on March 6, 2024, so the Ducks moneyline covers (ESPN box score).
“You get the Sixers minus four now in that game at home. So Grizzlies on the road seems like a bad idea. Jackson has caused the price move. We'll play the opposite way.”
115-109 — Memphis beat Philadelphia 115-109 on March 6, 2024; the 76ers lost outright, so the -4 spread busts (ESPN box score).
“the manager that I'm the most intrigued by at price is Stephen Vought of the Guardians by far. so he's like 11 to 1 is the best price on him in the market”
Stephen Vogt was named 2024 American League Manager of the Year in his debut season with the Guardians (MLB.com press release). (AL Manager of the Year: Stephen Vogt)
“anytime the crowd is chanting the name of a player that you have bet to win an award it's usually going to be pretty good it's usually like a pretty good sign that you've made a pretty good bet and crowd was chanting bobby portis last night”
Naz Reid won the 2023-24 NBA Sixth Man of the Year award over Malik Monk and Bobby Portis, so Bobby Portis did not win (ESPN). (2023-24 NBA Sixth Man of the Year: Naz Reid)
“I wish I had more than I do, but I would like Joe Missoula to win this award.”
Mark Daigneault of the Oklahoma City Thunder won the 2023-24 NBA Coach of the Year award, so Joe Mazzulla did not win (ESPN). (2023-24 NBA Coach of the Year: Mark Daigneault)
“And I would go with the team that gets the double by that would play them in the semifinals, which would be UT Martin at like a pretty big price versus the fact that they have a double by little rocks. The other team that gets the double by four to one on UT Martin.”
Morehead State won the 2024 OVC men's basketball tournament, beating Little Rock 69-55 in the title game held March 6-9, 2024 in Evansville, so UT Martin did not win (Ohio Valley Conference official site). (2024 OVC tournament champion: Morehead State (69-55 over Little Rock))
“i have their coach to win the coach of the year award for a very very large amount of money”
Rick Tocchet of the Vancouver Canucks won the 2023-24 Jack Adams Award as NHL Coach of the Year, receiving 82 first-place votes for 483 points (NHL.com).
“that's why i don't like boston so i don't like that they exist pj just because it's a roadblock for Denver who wins me money.”
The Boston Celtics defeated the Dallas Mavericks 4-1 to win the 2024 NBA championship; the Denver Nuggets were eliminated earlier in the playoffs (ESPN). (2024 NBA champion: Boston Celtics (def. Mavericks 4-1))
“I bet some no Jokic during the All-Star break.”
Nikola Jokic won the 2023-24 Kia NBA MVP award with 79 first-place votes and 926 points, so the bet against him lost (NBA.com). (2023-24 NBA MVP: Nikola Jokic)
“I have some Dagnall but I I don't probably have as much as other people”
Thunder coach Mark Daigneault won the 2023-24 NBA Coach of the Year award with 89 of 100 first-place votes (ESPN). (Mark Daigneault: 89 of 100 first-place votes)
“I really like Youngstown. They are by far the team I like the most.”
Oakland beat Milwaukee to win the 2024 Horizon League men's basketball championship on March 12, 2024; Youngstown State did not win the tournament (ESPN).
“I think if you want a long shot, it's the Mastodons because of some of the past stuff they have going for them and their prowess on the road. I like that a lot.”
Oakland beat Milwaukee to win the 2024 Horizon League men's basketball championship on March 12, 2024; Purdue Fort Wayne did not win the tournament (ESPN).
“you want to bet the tournament right now, couple bucks Lehigh.”
Colgate defeated Lehigh 74-55 to win the 2024 Patriot League men's basketball championship on March 13, 2024; Lehigh did not win the tournament (ESPN).
“I like the Thunder tonight basically just to win against the Lakers”
116-104 — Lakers beat Thunder 116-104 on March 4, 2024, so the Oklahoma City moneyline lost (ESPN box score).
“I like the Panthers tonight.”
4-2 — Florida Panthers beat New York Rangers 4-2 on March 4, 2024, so the Florida moneyline covered (ESPN box score).
“0.8 Eastern Kentucky and then a fifth of a unit on North Florida, 20 to one”
94-91 — Stetson beat Austin Peay 94-91 to win the 2024 Atlantic Sun men's basketball tournament, its first-ever ASUN title; North Florida did not win (ESPN).
“I am actually betting Eastern Kentucky and I bet them for the most by far.”
94-91 — Stetson beat Austin Peay 94-91 to win the 2024 Atlantic Sun men's basketball tournament; top-seeded Eastern Kentucky did not win (ESPN).
“And then honestly, like won the over and then poured all of that money into Europe. Literally just like tipped the wheelbarrow up. It was like, all right, here you go. Like, let's see what happens. Talk to a bunch of other people. They all bet Europe. And I was like, well, I guess everyone's on this. Tyler said he'd bet more money than he's been on like anything in his life on Europe in this tournament. I was like, oh, okay. So now I'm on Europe.”
16.5-11.5 — Europe defeated the United States 16.5-11.5 to win the 2023 Ryder Cup at Marco Simone Golf and Country Club (CBS Sports).
“So NC State three and a half bet number one.”
Louisville 13, NC State 10 — Louisville beat NC State 13-10; NC State lost by 3, covering the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I just like the four that's just where I'm at so I bet Utah on the game”
Oregon State 21, Utah 7 — Oregon State beat Utah 21-7; Utah lost by 14, failing to cover the +4 spread (ESPN box score).
“I just have six and a half. I like seven”
Clemson 31, Syracuse 14 — Clemson beat Syracuse 31-14, winning by 17 to cover the -6.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I like Virginia plus three and a half in the game”
Boston College 27, Virginia 24 — Boston College beat Virginia 27-24; Virginia lost by 3, covering the +3.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“South Alabama's plus three”
James Madison 31, South Alabama 23 — James Madison beat South Alabama 31-23; South Alabama lost by 8, failing to cover the +3 spread (ESPN box score).
“Minnesota 11 at home, which is just a funky kind of a game. I think it too short of a number”
Minnesota 35, Louisiana 24 — Minnesota beat Louisiana 35-24, winning by exactly 11 to push against the -11 spread (ESPN box score).
“now we more than 17 and that when I kind of want to start betting Nebraska. So I'm gonna 17 and a half and 18 at home.”
Michigan 45, Nebraska 7 — Michigan beat Nebraska 45-7; Nebraska lost by 38, failing to cover the +17.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“Mercifully, we get to do this again with Arizona, who may not have their starting quarterback. 19 against Arizona, Washington.”
Washington 31, Arizona 24 — Washington beat Arizona 31-24, winning by only 7, failing to cover the -19 spread (ESPN box score).
“Iowa State plus a lot. It's like 19 right now.”
Oklahoma 50, Iowa State 20 — Oklahoma beat Iowa State 50-20; Iowa State lost by 30, failing to cover the +19 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'm laying Georgia because it's 14 now against Auburn.”
Georgia 27, Auburn 20 — Georgia beat Auburn 27-20, winning by only 7, failing to cover the -14 spread (ESPN box score).
“LSU 2.5. half i just think that they're way better than all this”
Ole Miss 55, LSU 49 — Ole Miss beat LSU 55-49; LSU lost outright, failing to cover the -2.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“i think missouri's really good and we played on them a bunch and they're 13 and a half against vanderbilt”
Missouri 38, Vanderbilt 21 — Missouri beat Vanderbilt 38-21, winning by 17 to cover the -13.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I'm holding a lot of Tyreek and a lot of McCaffrey I'm holding this week I added a little more chase this week at 20 like I I can get beat or 22 maybe”
Christian McCaffrey won the 2023 AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year award, beating Ja'Marr Chase; Chase did not win (NFL.com/AP). (AP Offensive Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey)
“I look at this market and my piece of advice, like I have coaches that I like. I have coaches that I bet to win a couple of them or a few of them. But my advice in this market is to be incredibly open-minded actually to like, I don't know, two thirds of the field or something like that. It's just, I have guys that I like. They've aged pretty well. And Rivera hasn't, but the other two have Arthur Smith and LaFleur, who I like.”
Cleveland's Kevin Stefanski won the 2023 AP NFL Coach of the Year award on a tiebreaker over DeMeco Ryans; Matt LaFleur did not win (NFL.com). (AP Coach of the Year: Kevin Stefanski)
“So I have started a really small speculative position on him because he literally may not play next week.”
Joe Flacco won the 2023 AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year award (over Damar Hamlin); Cooper Kupp did not win. (AP Comeback Player of the Year: Joe Flacco)
“I think I have bet a good amount of money on Texas to win. The best price available on them is minus 120 to win the Big 12.”
49-21 — Texas beat Oklahoma State 49-21 in the 2023 Big 12 Championship Game on Dec 2, 2023 to win the conference title (ESPN).
“And I have bet a little bit of Kansas 25.”
49-21 — Kansas did not play in or win the 2023 Big 12 Championship Game; Texas beat Oklahoma State 49-21 for the title on Dec 2, 2023 (ESPN).
“I bet more on their win total under today. Still six and a half, by the way.”
The Raiders finished the 2023 regular season 8-9, going over the 6.5 win-total under line (ESPN 2023 Raiders schedule/standings). (Raiders 8-9)
“the price got worse like they became less likely to make it and uh and i completely disagreed with that and bet a ton of money on them to make the playoffs”
The Bengals finished the 2023 season 9-8 and were eliminated from playoff contention after a Week 17 loss to the Chiefs combined with Steelers and Bills wins (ESPN). (Bengals finished 9-8, missed playoffs)
“I made the number more than this the performances the teams make me think it's more than this and I bet the Steelers are three”
HOU 30, PIT 6 — Texans beat Steelers 30-6; Pittsburgh lost outright, missing the -3 spread by 27 points (ESPN box score).
“i still make the game more than this number i i bet 14”
SF 35, ARI 16 — 49ers beat the Cardinals 35-16, winning by 19 points to cover the -14 spread (ESPN box score).
“i bet 46 and a half last night”
24-3 — Seahawks beat Giants 24-3 on Oct 2, 2023; combined total of 27 falls well short of the over 46.5 (ESPN box score).
“i'll lay cincinnati in the game so i'm gonna bet bangles minus three”
19-16 — Bengals beat Rams 19-16 on Sep 25, 2023; Cincinnati's 3-point margin exactly matches the -3 spread, a push (ESPN box score).
“i bet clemson minus three in this game”
FSU 31, CLEM 24 — Florida State beat Clemson 31-24 in overtime on 9/23/2023; Clemson lost outright, so Clemson -3 busts (ESPN final).
“so mark me down for over 46 for sure”
DET 20, ATL 6 — Lions beat Falcons 20-6, combined 26 points; under 46 total (ESPN box score).
“we bet seven”
BUF 37, WSH 3 — Bills beat Commanders 37-3, a 34-point margin; Washington +7 busts (ESPN box score).
“Give me Brandon Staley and the Los Angeles Chargers to win on the road in Minnesota”
MIN 24, LAC 28 — Chargers beat the Vikings 28-24 on Sep 24, 2023, winning outright on the road (ESPN final score).
“i bet a little more three with the rams earlier”
CIN 19, LAR 16 — Bengals beat the Rams 19-16 on Sep 25, 2023 (MNF); Rams lost by exactly 3, pushing the +3 spread (ESPN final score).
“i have bet mcafree and tyreek at best available prices in the market right now both of them this week tyreek best price was nine mcafree best price was 675”
Christian McCaffrey won the 2023 AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year award, beating Tyreek Hill 222-139 in voting points (NFL.com). (2023 AP Offensive Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey (222 pts) over Tyreek Hill (139 pts))
“i have bet mcafree and tyreek at best available prices in the market right now both of them this week tyreek best price was nine mcafree best price was 675”
Christian McCaffrey won the 2023 AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year award, beating Tyreek Hill 222-139 in voting points (NFL.com); Tyreek Hill did not win. (2023 AP Offensive Player of the Year: Christian McCaffrey (222 pts) over Tyreek Hill (139 pts))
“current position in this market is really aggressive on three players, Stafford, Baker, Mayfield, and Chase Young.”
Cleveland Browns QB Joe Flacco won the 2023 AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year award (151-140 over Damar Hamlin); Matthew Stafford was not the winner. (AP Comeback Player of the Year: Joe Flacco)
“I feel like I bet the Packers to make the playoffs like every 12 hours or something.”
The Packers finished the 2023 regular season 9-8 as the NFC's No. 7 seed and made the playoffs, beating the Cowboys 48-32 in the Wild Card round before losing to San Francisco (ESPN box score). (Packers made the 2023-24 NFL playoffs (beat Cowboys 48-32 in Wild Card round))
“I bet the Browns to miss prior to the Steelers game.”
The Browns finished the 2023 regular season 11-6 and made the AFC playoffs as a Wild Card team, losing to the Texans 45-14 in the Wild Card round on 1/13/2024 (ESPN box score) - the opposite of the bet on Cleveland missing the playoffs. (Browns made the 2023-24 NFL playoffs (lost 45-14 to Texans in Wild Card round))
“My favorite would be that you can find Texas Tech trading at like 20 or better in some places, and I have bought a little bit of that.”
49-21 — Texas beat Oklahoma State 49-21 to win the 2023 Big 12 Championship Game on 12/2/2023; Texas Tech did not play in the title game (ESPN game recap).
“also good also i i i bet them against buffalo already coming up on sunday so i'll be in the seven getting the seven was really important”
37-3 — Bills beat Commanders 37-3; Washington +7 lost by 34, well outside the spread (ESPN box score).
“well I'm just you mean come come back excuse me comeback player of the year Baker Mayfield excuse me yeah well I will extend the offer now and I tried to extend it to you last week and you very rudely swatted my offer away my olive branch away i want you to get on the pirate ship with me and we will fire the cannons together next monday night against the philadelphia eagles well i now i i'm so in on yes but we will do awards on thursday you'll never bet you'll never believe who i bet to win comeback player of the year the guy who wanted to go to 2-0 and his price didn't change whatsoever”
Joe Flacco won the 2023 AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year award, not Baker Mayfield (NFL.com).
“Nine and a half would be a bet. I'm waiting. And missed kind of the best of the number and hoping to get it back again. Utah State, we're going to get these week three games where sometimes we know nothing about a team. They play two games, we still know nothing. And sometimes the little bit that we do know kind of looks pretty good, but the market is unwilling to consider changing the rating of the team yet. I think Utah State's one of those teams played Iowa. Iowa obviously had all the quarterback stuff in that opener out gained Iowa in the game. That's not like a team you want to bet nine and a half against the Air Force and they blew out an FCS team and their other data point like maybe Utah State's bad and maybe nine and a half is the right number. It just seems like a really big number for a team that like might actually really not be that bad. Kind of think their life to win to Utah State. Try to wait for the 10 obviously because why wouldn't you? But we'll kind of like whatever we'll grade it at nine and a half.”
Air Force 39, Utah State 21 — Air Force beat Utah State 39-21; Utah State's +9.5 spread did not cover (ESPN box score).
“Two and a half, three against Ohio. People still bet in Ohio. It's three. And I bet Ohio plus three.”
Ohio 10, Iowa State 7 — Ohio beat Iowa State 10-7 outright; Ohio's +3 spread pick covers as a straight-up win (ESPN box score).
“I actually kind of think Missouri is going to win. I think we know nothing about both teams and I'm home team plus four when I know nothing about both.”
Missouri 30, Kansas State 27 — Missouri beat Kansas State 30-27 outright; Missouri's +4 spread pick covers as a straight-up win (ESPN box score).
“LSU, minus like any number under 100, but it's nine and a half.”
LSU 41, Mississippi State 14 — LSU beat Mississippi State 41-14, a 27-point win that covers LSU's -9.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“we're playing UConn no matter what uh really bad game against Georgia State they turned the ball over a ton I think Florida International is one of the worst teams in the country that did not go well last week I am back at the table again or back at the window again betting against them UConn minus seven”
Florida International 24, UConn 17 — Florida International beat UConn 24-17 outright; UConn's -7 spread pick loses (ESPN box score).
“I I don't think I think double cross honestly uh I'm the short for me I think Washington might be that good and uh and really well coached getting a year two coach bump to 16 and a half Michigan State yes please I'll take Washington”
Washington 41, Michigan State 7 — Washington beat Michigan State 41-7, a 34-point win that covers Washington's -16.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I think Miami, Ohio might be okay. Uh, 14 against Cincinnati, Miami, Ohio. We going to play them in that game”
Miami (Ohio) 31, Cincinnati 24 — Miami (Ohio) beat Cincinnati 31-24 in overtime; Miami (Ohio)'s +14 spread pick covers as a straight-up win (ESPN box score).
“And it's wrong now. Kentucky 25 and a half. We'll take Akron. We'll take Akron in that game.”
Kentucky 35, Akron 3 — Kentucky beat Akron 35-3; Akron's +25.5 spread pick does not cover (ESPN box score).
“The one that I can't give you anymore. I bet Florida before the year against Tennessee. We talked about these look-aheads with Florida and what you're supposed to do. I had a little bit on nine and a half before the year.”
Florida 29, Tennessee 16 — Florida beat Tennessee 29-16, a 13-point win that covers Florida's +9.5 spread (ESPN box score).
“I did make a bet earlier today, and Nick, I texted you this, so I just can share it on the show as well. Just always like to look, especially early in the year, at a lot of the ancillary markets for season leaders and stats and updated win totals. There's so much interesting stuff going on early in the year in the NFL markets because the markets are constantly in this push and pull with, like, what we've already seen, like a game or two games in Philadelphia and Minnesota's case, and preseason expectations. and what happens when things start to look way different than what we saw in the preseason, or what happens when we think players are better than the market does or think players are worse than the market does. I think all of us are starting to form some opinions like that right now. Based on what I saw against the Jacksonville Jaguars in week one and what I thought before the year about Anthony Richardson, I actually think he is live to lead the league in rushing touchdowns, which I know sounds like kind of weird, like a quarterback leading the league in rushing touchdowns. It's rare. Jalen Hurts tied for second last year in this statistical category. Jamal Williams obviously led the league and had like four touchdowns in one game, had a ton of vultured one yard touchdown runs and did lead the league. Jalen Hurts was tied for second. So I think in the right system, you know, the one Indianapolis is running the same one that got Hurts tied for second last year with Anthony Richardson. I think he's actually kind of live. I don't think he's like going to do it like it has to happen. But I mean, based on what you saw in week one, look how many opportunities is going to get down by the goal line to potentially score some touchdowns with Shane Steichen's offense. obviously the Bruce that Jalen Hurts season last year. Richardson is 25 to one currently to lead the NFL regular season and rushing touchdowns.”
Raheem Mostert led the NFL with 18 rushing touchdowns in the 2023 regular season; Anthony Richardson, who suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 5, did not lead the league, so the futures bet loses (ESPN stats). (Mostert 18 rushing TDs)
“I will have a ticket on Cincinnati in this game. There's a three minus 15 and two three minus 18s in the market. That would be a bet for me. Like if you just want to bet and then not think about it again. I do like Cincinnati at that price.”
BAL 27, CIN 24 — Ravens beat Bengals 27-24; Cincinnati lost outright, so Bengals -3 busts (ESPN box score).
“Giants four like officially can be a bet if you want to try to wait for a better number obviously can. Four is a bet for me. We'll probably start betting that today.”
NYG 31, ARI 28 — Giants beat Cardinals 31-28, a 3-point win that falls short of the -4 spread, so Giants -4 busts (ESPN box score).
“But the Jets money line with the under, even for a couple bucks, that is a bet. I'm just kind of price shopping it and waiting to see if the Cowboys get bet more.”
DAL 30, NYJ 10 — Cowboys beat the Jets 30-10; the Jets moneyline leg lost outright, which busts the parlay regardless of the unstated-total under leg (ESPN box score).
“You bet 100 to one and he gets a sack. Now you're 50 to one. I mean, God forbid anybody tweets about it. I mean, you're going to be, the price is going to crash pretty fast. So there's not a right answer to the question i did bet a little more 100 just because i think i'm going to want to be in on him this year period”
Browns QB Joe Flacco won the 2023 AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year award, not Chase Young (NFL.com). (AP Comeback Player of the Year: Joe Flacco)
“I bet zero things before the year, this market, I have zero bets in most valuable player. And now I don't. And the first bet that I made was actually at MGM because they had the best price on it. And I bet Joe Barota win most valuable player. And I bet it this morning.”
Lamar Jackson won the 2023 AP NFL Most Valuable Player award (49 of 50 first-place votes) at NFL Honors; Joe Burrow was not a finalist, so the MVP bet lost. (2023 AP NFL MVP: Lamar Jackson)
“I bet one player to win this award before the year. It was Quinnen Williams.”
Myles Garrett won the 2023 AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year award over T.J. Watt, 165-140 in the voting; Quinnen Williams did not win (NFL.com). (2023 AP Defensive Player of the Year: Myles Garrett, 165 votes, over T.J. Watt, 140 votes)
“so i bet some michigan to make the playoff uh i think minus 125 is okay”
Michigan made the 2023 College Football Playoff and won the national championship, beating Washington 34-13 on January 8, 2024 (ESPN). (Michigan 34, Washington 13 (2024 CFP National Championship))
“So if you have no position, the way you would do that now is jam Justin Steele, which I've been doing all day”
Blake Snell (Padres) won the 2023 NL Cy Young Award, announced Nov 15, 2023; Justin Steele did not win (ESPN). (Blake Snell won; Justin Steele did not win)
“But like under, 44.5.”
PHI 25, NE 20 — Eagles beat Patriots 25-20; combined 45 points went over the 44.5 total (ESPN box score).
“So regardless of what happens in this game, like I bet a lot of Rams under six and a half.”
The Rams finished the 2023 regular season 10-7, over the 6.5 wins line, so the under busts (ESPN schedule/results).
“Vandy plus 10, that's bet number one.”
WAKE 36, VAN 20 — Wake Forest beat Vanderbilt 36-20; Vanderbilt lost by 16, well outside the +10 line (ESPN box score).
“Like them 7.5, that's bet number 2.”
ND 45, NCSU 24 — Notre Dame beat NC State 45-24; NC State lost by 21, well outside the +7.5 line (ESPN box score).
“It's called seven and a half right now. I like Baylor in the game, another home dog I like.”
UTAH 20, BAY 13 — Utah beat Baylor 20-13; Baylor lost by only 7, covering the +7.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Arizona State plus three, I think they win.”
OKST 27, ASU 15 — Oklahoma State beat Arizona State 27-15; Arizona State lost by 12, well outside the +3 line (ESPN box score).
“SMU 15 and a half, definitely a bet.”
OU 28, SMU 11 — Oklahoma beat SMU 28-11; SMU lost by 17, outside the +15.5 line (ESPN box score).
“They're plus nine and a half. That's another bet.”
RICE 43, HOU 41 — Rice beat Houston 43-41 in double overtime, winning outright and covering the +9.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Plus six, it is available. So we'll give it out right now.”
ORE 38, TTU 30 — Oregon beat Texas Tech 38-30; Texas Tech lost by 8, outside the +6 line (ESPN box score).
“Arizona plus nine and a half. I think they're kind of alive.”
MSST 31, ARIZ 24 — Mississippi State beat Arizona 31-24 in overtime; Arizona lost by only 7, covering the +9.5 line (ESPN box score).
“New Mexico State plus 10. I think there's a couple 10 and a halves left, whatever. We'll call it 10 for the purposes of tracking.”
LIB 33, NMSU 17 — Liberty beat New Mexico State 33-17; New Mexico State lost by 16, well outside the +10 line (ESPN box score).
“We'll lay Georgia State's six and a half.”
35-14 — Georgia State's only game on 2023-09-09 was a 35-14 home win over UConn, not the stated UAB opponent (UAB played Georgia Southern that day); Georgia State's actual margin of +21 clears the -6.5 spread (ESPN final score).
“North Texas, 11 and a half in that game.”
FIU 46, UNT 39 — FIU beat North Texas 46-39; North Texas lost outright by 7, well outside the -11.5 line (ESPN box score).
“We'll take Old Dominion six against Louisiana.”
ODU 38, UL 31 — Old Dominion beat Louisiana 38-31, winning outright and covering the +6 line (ESPN box score).
“Eight and a half is still there. More than a touchdown like Temple against Rutgers.”
RUTG 36, TEM 7 — Rutgers beat Temple 36-7; Temple lost by 29, well outside the +8.5 line (ESPN box score).
“Three or more. I really like Boise in the game. I think they win.”
UCF 18, BOISE 16 — UCF beat Boise State 18-16 on a last-play field goal; Boise State lost by only 2, covering the +3 line (ESPN box score).
“45 and a half the best number in the market will play under and will play Cowboys team total under.”
40-0 — Cowboys beat Giants 40-0; combined total of 40 points is under 45.5 (ESPN final score).
“I love my Dolphins Super Bowl that I made, because I feel like that's in Miami's range of outcomes.”
25-22 — Kansas City Chiefs defeated the San Francisco 49ers 25-22 in overtime to win Super Bowl LVIII on Feb 11, 2024; Miami did not reach or win the game (ESPN).
“I liked Houston a lot at the number, which was 10. That was a bet for me.”
BAL 25, HOU 9 — Ravens beat Texans 25-9 in the Week 1 opener; Houston lost by 16, failing to cover +10 (ESPN box score).
“He's 30-1 in the market. I have bet him before the Texas game.”
LSU QB Jayden Daniels won the 2023 Heisman Trophy on December 9, 2023; Alabama's Jalen Milroe did not win (Heisman.com).
“Anthony Richardson, because I actually bet this.”
C.J. Stroud won the 2023 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award; Anthony Richardson did not win (NFL.com).
“did I bet Lions six and a half and seven? Because I thought they were going to win the game. I don't know if I have a clue what's going to happen in the game. But I know that number is not going to be there much longer.”
DET 21, KC 20 — Lions beat Chiefs 21-20; Detroit +6.5 covers easily as outright winners (ESPN box score).
“i i actually bet the under in this game this is the first bet that we have on sunday that i talked about and i bet under 44”
BAL 25, HOU 9 — Ravens beat Texans 25-9, combined 34 points, under 44 wins (ESPN box score).
“isn't Jalen hurts kind of more like Burrow Mahomes Allen and less like the take a flyer on a guy players like Justin Herman. He's the name that's sort of more interesting to me in terms of where he's priced. I have him as like a tier one guy and he's almost priced like a tier two guy behind like the big three, like the Allen Mahomesboro group. He's my favorite bet to win. I think I said that earlier in the week also, like at this price, and you're 100% right.”
Lamar Jackson won the 2023 AP NFL Most Valuable Player award (49 of 50 first-place votes); Jalen Hurts did not win, so the pick lost (ESPN). (2023 AP NFL MVP: Lamar Jackson)
“I bet Stanford three because I kind of think people are going to think that that's wrong and it's going to go back up a little bit more if it ever got to two and a half I think you're making a phenomenal bet I have bet three”
37-24 — Stanford beat Hawaii 37-24; Stanford's 13-point margin covers -3 (ESPN box score).
“So we're going to play Texas State plus 27.5. If you want to wait for 28, I am, but, like, we do this segment, I don't know where the numbers are going to go.”
42-31 — Texas State upset Baylor 42-31, winning outright and covering +27.5 (ESPN box score).
“Bowling Green, nine and a half. I actually would not be surprised at all if they won the game.”
34-24 — Liberty beat Bowling Green 34-24, a 10-point margin that busts Bowling Green +9.5 (ESPN box score).
“Virginia Tech, hopefully getting a year two coach bump, hopefully, because I have them rated way better than this number. 16 against Old Dominion”
36-17 — Virginia Tech beat Old Dominion 36-17; the 19-point margin covers -16 (ESPN box score).
“Kentucky, 26 and a half. This is the reuniting of Liam Cohen, who's worked for the Rams for a little bit, was not in Kentucky last year, now back.”
44-14 — Kentucky beat Ball State 44-14; the 30-point margin covers -26.5 (ESPN box score).
“kind of another weird upset game with a team I have rated incorrectly to me Sam Houston plus 19 against BYU number just looks like something I want to bet”
14-0 — BYU beat Sam Houston 14-0; Sam Houston's 14-point loss stays under +19 (ESPN box score).
“they're a 38 point favorite and I actually think they do cover this week and I think the number is short”
66-14 — USC beat Nevada 66-14; the 52-point margin covers -38 (ESPN box score).
“another team that's laying 38 that I like Texas A&M why do I like this number it's Bobby Petrino's first game as offensive coordinator”
52-10 — Texas A&M beat New Mexico 52-10; the 42-point margin covers -38 (ESPN box score).
“And it's a six and a half point spread, and I like South Alabama.”
37-17 — Tulane beat South Alabama 37-17, a 20-point margin that busts South Alabama +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“Probably the money line I would like the most of these small point spreads that we're giving out. I think they win the game.”
37-17 — Tulane beat South Alabama 37-17 outright, so the South Alabama moneyline pick loses (ESPN box score).
“i can't get behind rutgers six and a half against like norm like teams that play even at the bottom of big conferences uh and a low total too so like six and a half's a lot for rutgers to have to overcome and they're not very good uh i think some of this is what's happened off the of course it is but would it really surprise anyone if against rutgers in like a noon game with like a bat i think it's a noon whatever in a game with like no home field advantage whatsoever with like 10 people there that like Northwestern can't win this game it just like seems like too big of a number to me I like Northwestern plus points I like them to win”
24-7 — Rutgers beat Northwestern 24-7, a 17-point margin that busts Northwestern +6.5 (ESPN box score).
“I like Northwestern plus points I like them to win”
24-7 — Rutgers beat Northwestern 24-7 outright, so the Northwestern moneyline pick loses (ESPN box score).
“66.5 or 67, the total in this game. It's one of the rare overs that I like. I actually think this is kind of one of those track meet shootout games”
38-14 — SMU beat Louisiana Tech 38-14; the combined 52 points falls under the 66.5 total (ESPN box score).
“I did scoop the cheapest possible Seattle money line. I could find that's one of the reasons why I said that right now. So just like, Hey, like what it can bet. Like I bet Seattle's money line at the cheapest I could find was like a, was two 10 and an exchange”
LAR 30, SEA 13 — Rams beat Seahawks 30-13 on Sep 10, 2023; Seattle moneyline pick lost (ESPN).
“I have no Garrett Cole. i own zero uh i own a reasonable amount of nathan neovaldi and then he got hurt i own a little bit of george kirby that was like doing okay and uh not so much and that's about it”
Gerrit Cole (Yankees) was the unanimous winner of the 2023 AL Cy Young Award, announced November 15, 2023 (MLB.com); Nathan Eovaldi did not win. (2023 AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole (unanimous, 30/30 first-place votes))
“who am i holding in this market i am holding a Logan Webb position that is now absolutely worthless you turn it into an nft or something so i i had a lot of Logan Webb he cannot win that is the end of my involvement in this market”
Blake Snell (Padres) won the 2023 NL Cy Young Award with 28 of 30 first-place votes; Logan Webb finished second with 1 first-place vote and 86 total points (ESPN).
“I think we finished up at Kansas State, who had an over-under of eight. Give me your thoughts on this K-State team as we dive back into college football.”
Kansas State finished the 2023 regular season 8-4 (their Pop-Tarts Bowl win over NC State was postseason, not a regular-season win), landing exactly on the 8-win under line (ESPN schedule/results).
“six and a half mike gundy oak state is like that's that's not gonna work for me like i'm gonna need to bet the over on that uh lowest win total i have for them almost since he's been the coach”
Oklahoma State finished the 2023 regular season 10-3, clearing the 6.5-win over line, capped by a 40-34 2OT win over BYU on Nov 25 (ESPN).
“AFS I would probably pick Buffalo actually just because like I think the narrative that McDermott”
Kevin Stefanski (Browns) won the 2023 AP NFL Coach of the Year award, edging DeMeco Ryans on a tiebreaker; Sean McDermott did not win (NFL.com). (2023 AP Coach of the Year: Kevin Stefanski)
“six and a half, their number in the market. Most of the improvement coaches are like seven, seven and a half, eight, kind of like that, but close and therefore worth having the conversation, I think. And I've, I like this win total over for bet for them a lot”
The Washington Commanders finished the 2023 regular season 4-13, under the 6.5-win over line (ESPN schedule/standings). (Commanders 2023 record: 4-13)
“his price is really, really long. He is not viewed as a likely winner of this award whatsoever. I did. He is actually the only bet I have in the account so far for this market. All offseason, he was 50. He's still close to that in some places, but now it's more like 30, 35. I still like that. I think he's only slightly less likely to win than some of the other guys that we were talking about in that Matt LaFleur, Arthur Smith kind of bucket. And the prices are very different on those two. So I do like Rivera to win that award at a long price.”
Kevin Stefanski won the 2023 AP NFL Coach of the Year award (via tiebreaker over DeMeco Ryans); Ron Rivera did not win (nfl.com). (2023 AP Coach of the Year: Kevin Stefanski)
“I will tell you at places that take a lot, there's under four right now, reasonably juiced, minus 130. I have bet that. I think two and three and pushing four is much more likely than getting like a six win season or something like that. So I have bet under four on this team. You'll have to shop around to find that. It is very available. That is a bet that I have made.”
3-9 — Indiana went 3-9 overall in the 2023 regular season (1-8 Big Ten), finishing with 3 regular-season wins, under Barkley's 4-win line (Wikipedia: 2023 Indiana Hoosiers football team).
“win total is seven juiced under and so what you're going to wind up with here is a bunch of toss-up games a lot of the games in the division some like the michigan state game out of the division you know when i went to all these toss-up games and the story of pj flick at minnesota again they won 10 games one time there's kind of like a bowl eligible over 500 pretty good team is that he wins a bunch of those games and he's a pretty good coach and if i'm faced with the exact same set of variables again and uh new offensive coordinator he promoted from within for that it's the same defensive coordinator they have a returning quarterback who people are excited about whose name i can never ever pronounce who filled in a little bit last year um i'm just going to play on the coach here because the market's not responding to the fact that he's continuously going over and if the market's going to keep not responding to that i'm going to keep anything over we bet this team to win 10 games last year and bet they're over uh and they went over by a half game they didn't win 10 but that kind of tells you like just like i like to play on pj fleck teams uh not to be amazing but just to be good i think like a reliable good and the market's going to be seven i'm going to play over”
5-7 — Minnesota went 5-7 in the 2023 regular season (3-6 Big Ten) before a bowl win over Bowling Green, finishing with 5 regular-season wins, under the 7-win line Barkley took the over on (Wikipedia: 2023 Minnesota Golden Gophers football team).
“I think six is the right number for this team and reasonable juice on under six and a half I think is a good bet. This is a really weird one where like I put a lot of effort into the rating and I still came in far enough under that it was a little striking. And I and I think I'm going to stick to it. So love Matt Rule. Happily better than year two to do some great things, maybe win the division next year. just I think too much too soon in terms of market expectation I will play under no win total under bet on Nebraska for year one of the mat rule regime”
5-7 — Nebraska went 5-7 (3-6 Big Ten) in Matt Rhule's first season, finishing under the 6.5 regular-season win total (ESPN schedule).
“Ohio State, I bet already, to win the national title. Why did I bet it right now. I think the price is more likely to improve in my favor than to go against me for a really specific reason, which is that the perception of Ohio State right now is they have no quarterback”
Ohio State did not reach the 2023-24 College Football Playoff after losing to Michigan 30-24 on Nov 25, 2023; Michigan went on to beat Washington 34-13 in the championship game, so Ohio State did not win the national title (ESPN, NCAA.com).
“McDaniels and McCarthy six Rivera 650 Stefanski nine Staley 16 is there a bet that you like your first coach to be fired I didn't think I was gonna bet this market this year because like McDaniels is the favorite and I think he should be and now we're just like kind of going through it I'm like man that opening stretch for the Raiders is rough and he's six to one and Staley's what's a 16 yep I think I'm just gonna bet them I actually I'm probably gonna bet this I'm gonna I bet McDaniels, I think the limit's probably really low, but maybe more than a couple places offer it. Maybe we could like really shop a lot. Tough market to find. So what are the tiny limit? I'll take limit McDaniels and limits daily”
Josh McDaniels was fired by the Raiders on October 31, 2023, becoming the first NFL head coach fired during the 2023 season (NFL.com). (Josh McDaniels fired: October 31, 2023 (first HC fired in 2023 season))
“McDaniels and McCarthy six Rivera 650 Stefanski nine Staley 16 is there a bet that you like your first coach to be fired I didn't think I was gonna bet this market this year because like McDaniels is the favorite and I think he should be and now we're just like kind of going through it I'm like man that opening stretch for the Raiders is rough and he's six to one and Staley's what's a 16 yep I think I'm just gonna bet them I actually I'm probably gonna bet this I'm gonna I bet McDaniels, I think the limit's probably really low, but maybe more than a couple places offer it. Maybe we could like really shop a lot. Tough market to find. So what are the tiny limit? I'll take limit McDaniels and limits daily”
Josh McDaniels (Raiders), not Brandon Staley, was the first NFL head coach fired in the 2023 season, fired October 31, 2023 (NFL.com), so a Staley 'first coach fired' bet lost. (Josh McDaniels fired: October 31, 2023 (first HC fired in 2023 season))
“I get asked about this a lot because we did it over the summer. I have a lot of money on Breanna Stewart, and there are two players that are going to win this, her or Asia Wilson, the best player for the Las Vegas Aces.”
Breanna Stewart (New York Liberty) won the 2023 Kia WNBA Most Valuable Player Award (WNBA.com official announcement). (2023 WNBA MVP: Breanna Stewart)
“I bet three on Pittsburgh in a heartbeat before I bet.”
SF 30, PIT 7 — 49ers beat Steelers 30-7 on Sep 10, 2023; Steelers lost by 23, failing to cover +3 (ESPN box score).
“I like the over in this game a lot if you're gonna be DTR the whole time and like really high scoring Chiefs backups 41 and a half”
KC 33, CLE 32 — Chiefs beat Browns 33-32 (ESPN box score); combined 65 points clears the 41.5 total.
“there's a five and a half still in the market juiced under minus 150 160 um that i've been into a lot”
California finished the 2023 regular season 6-6 (won season finale at UCLA 33-7), exceeding the 5.5 wins under total (ESPN team schedule). (6-6)
“I'm not saying they're going to make the playoffs, although I am betting that”
Washington Commanders finished the 2023 regular season 4-13, placing 4th in the NFC East and missing the playoffs (Wikipedia). (Commanders finished 4-13, missed the playoffs)
“So that is the only bet that I've made for Clemson is three minus one ten in the look ahead market on their game hosting Florida State.”
Florida State 31, Clemson 24 — Florida State beat Clemson 31-24 in overtime on Sept 23, 2023; Clemson lost outright and busted the -3 spread (ESPN box score).
“there is one domestic book that has a 10 under minus 150 uh which I've tried to bet from 500 different places and been pretty successful”
Florida State finished the 2023 regular season 13-0 (including the ACC Championship Game win over Louisville), well past the 10-win total (ESPN schedule/results). (Florida State 2023 regular-season record: 13-0)
“so i've also met them i cannot believe this there's like minus 350 on them to not make the playoff”
Florida State finished the final Dec. 3, 2023 CFP selection committee rankings at No. 5 with a 13-0 record, excluded from the four-team playoff field (College Football Playoff official rankings release). (Final CFP ranking: Florida State No. 5 (13-0))
“i bet under six and a half on them and paid like 155 to do it”
Syracuse finished the 2023 regular season 6-6 (2-6 ACC), under the 6.5-win total, before a bowl-game loss (ESPN schedule/results). (Syracuse 2023 regular-season record: 6-6)
“Campbell would be my guy right now. And maybe it's a big barrier to entry or barrier to winning for him if he's going to have to lead the NFL in tackles as a rookie. But I think that's within his range of outcomes where I think he's at the price to me right now would be the most attractive Campbell in 15 to one.”
Houston Texans DE Will Anderson Jr. won the 2023 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award (151 points), so Jack Campbell did not win (NFL.com). (2023 AP Defensive Rookie of the Year: Will Anderson Jr.)
“At MGM, the Steelers are plus 110 to win this game? Plus? We'll tell you. Pittsburgh is – One and a half preseason spread? Yeah, plus 105. I mean, I'm looking at a different – probably a different state. Yeah, plus 105, plus 110. They're plus money, yes. That's my bet for this game.”
27-15 — Steelers beat the Bills 27-15 in the Aug. 19, 2023 preseason game, so the Pittsburgh moneyline cashed (ESPN box score).
“you want to uh you want to lay the three and a half or you want to just bet the money line minus 175 how do you want to do both yeah yeah”
LV 34, LAR 17 — The Raiders beat the Rams 34-17 in their August 19, 2023 preseason game, so the Las Vegas moneyline bet won (ESPN box score).
“I don think I gave you this bet but I do think it a good bet So we can start there My numbers are going to be a little off in a few of the games not a lot This is actually one of the bigger differences. So market is now 17 mostly on this game, and I am 21.”
MIA 38, M-OH 3 — Miami Hurricanes beat Miami (OH) 38-3, a 35-point margin that easily covered -17 (ESPN box score).
“i did bet a little over seven and a half what i would kill for is a seven”
Miami Hurricanes went 7-5 in the 2023 regular season (bowl games excluded from season win totals), falling short of the 7.5-win over line (ESPN schedule/results). (Miami finished the regular season 7-5)
“Well, I'm going to bet them to win.”
38-10 — Chiefs beat Cardinals 38-10 in the August 19, 2023 preseason game, so the Arizona moneyline pick lost (ESPN box score).
“My raw projection for them is between six and six and a half wins. Number in the market's five and a half.”
Florida finished the 2023 regular season 5-7, short of the 6 wins needed to beat over 5.5. (Florida 2023 regular season: 5-7)
“if it never happens and nine like even money or nine plus is all we have uh i do really like under on that”
Tennessee went 8-4 in the 2023 regular season (before the Citrus Bowl), finishing under the 9-win line (ESPN schedule). (Tennessee 2023 regular season: 8-4)
“So everybody's on Viktor Hovland I'll be on him too.”
Viktor Hovland won the 2023 BMW Championship at 17-under, two shots ahead of Scottie Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick (ESPN leaderboard). (Viktor Hovland: 1st (-17))
“So Wyndham Clark, Viktor Hovland, and then a bunch of derivatives on Ben on.”
Viktor Hovland won the 2023 BMW Championship; Wyndham Clark finished tied for 15th at -6, not first (ESPN leaderboard). (Wyndham Clark: T15 (-6))
“the guy who was 100 to 1 and I bet to 50.”
Gerrit Cole of the New York Yankees was unanimously named the 2023 American League Cy Young Award winner (ESPN); George Kirby did not win. (2023 AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole)
“I bet the over on this team. I tried to find the cheapest six and a half possible The best available juice in the market on the over and it for good limits to on six and a half for Arkansas is minus 140”
Arkansas finished the 2023 regular season 4-8, falling short of the 6.5 win total (ESPN schedule). (Arkansas 2023 regular season: 4-8)
“MGM, the king of sports books, you are home to bet the Vanderbilt football under four wins this season.”
Vanderbilt finished the 2023 regular season 2-10 (0-8 SEC), under the 4-win line (Wikipedia, citing official season records). (Vanderbilt 2023 regular season: 2-10)
“i just got my three in the juice just moved i mean it did it literally i had to click the button to be like do you accept this move and it was still plus three so so i said yeah”
27-17 — Steelers beat Buccaneers 27-17 in the preseason opener; Tampa Bay lost outright, missing the +3 spread by a 10-point margin (ESPN).
“Colts are like minus 170 money line in the game I'm gonna have a little bit of that maybe I'll parlay with a couple other things want some exposure to the Colts winning the game”
23-19 — Bills beat Colts 23-19 in the preseason opener, so the Colts moneyline pick loses (ESPN).
“as a pro prospect, like Tyrod Taylor. Okay. He's going to have to play a lot for this to make any sense as a 36 and a half. Otherwise this feels like a low 30 to me. And we've already seen, obviously it's pretty bad quarterbacking and some low scoring teams and quarters and halves already in the two games we had the last night. So I'll say under in the game. This would actually, this will likely be something that I bet I'll do it when we get to the next break, but this will probably be a bet for me on the under and probably nothing on the side.”
Detroit 21, New York Giants 16 — Lions beat Giants 21-16 in the Aug 11, 2023 preseason opener; combined score of 37 went over the Under 36 total (ESPN box score).
“Xander Shoffley is one of those guys I laid a small minus price on him to top 20 this tournament”
Xander Schauffele finished T24 at -7 at the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship, missing the top-20 finish needed for the bet to win (ESPN leaderboard). (Xander Schauffele T24 (-7))
“I like to bet him top five, 10, 20. He's the only guy that I have like every derivative on Rickie Fowler”
Rickie Fowler finished T58 at -1 at the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship, missing the top-5 finish needed for the bet to win (ESPN leaderboard). (Rickie Fowler T58 (-1))
“I like to bet him top five, 10, 20. He's the only guy that I have like every derivative on Rickie Fowler”
Rickie Fowler finished T58 at -1 at the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship, missing the top-10 finish needed for the bet to win (ESPN leaderboard). (Rickie Fowler T58 (-1))
“I like to bet him top five, 10, 20. He's the only guy that I have like every derivative on Rickie Fowler”
Rickie Fowler finished T58 at -1 at the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship, missing the top-20 finish needed for the bet to win (ESPN leaderboard). (Rickie Fowler T58 (-1))
“Cam Davis strikes me as pretty interesting for price. Pretty good tournament history, a top 10 at Colonial, good recent form, and is like more than two to one to top 20 this tournament”
Cam Davis finished T6 at -11 at the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship, inside the top-20 finish needed for the bet to win (ESPN leaderboard). (Cam Davis T6 (-11))
“Glover, top 10 and 20.”
Lucas Glover won the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship at -15, comfortably inside the top-10 finish needed for the bet to win (ESPN leaderboard). (Lucas Glover 1st (-15))
“Glover, top 10 and 20.”
Lucas Glover won the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship at -15, comfortably inside the top-20 finish needed for the bet to win (ESPN leaderboard). (Lucas Glover 1st (-15))
“if it's just like I have to bet only one team and I'll explain what I mean by that in a second if I have to bet only one team to win their division as a great bet it would probably be the Packers just because if I'm trying to identify what do we do all the time on this show Jeremy we talk about awards we talk about multi-way markets you always answer a really simple question does this market have a vulnerable favorite right that's always like a key to and key entry point to betting an award market. If I look, it doesn't matter if the second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth guy are in the total wrong order and they're all 10,000 to one. If the favorite is like Shohei Otani to an AL MVP, why would I spend any time figuring out who they're like the least vulnerable favorite? So, so impervious, what's the opposite of vulnerable? So invulnerable that they took it off the board that you can't even bet it anymore. And, uh, and so, okay, division bets, let's apply that same philosophy and let's see if we feel like one of the favorites is vulnerable he does in baseball too so i have so much stupid money on the chicago cubs to win the nl central because i just thought the brewers were really vulnerable and i wanted to take shots at them okay if you do some of the nfl divisions like do i think you know the eagles are vulnerable to win the nfc east obviously price dependent if you got 500 to one on the cowboys you'd bet it but like you know what people know what i mean okay like i i don't i don't want to try to beat the eagles to win the division this year i don't want to try to beat the chiefs to win the division this year the AFC North is kind of weird because everybody's good so I don't want to try to beat the Jags to win the AFC South I hate the other teams and I don't see upside in any of them the NFC North I would I'd push people into traffic to take shots at the Detroit Lions to to lose the division and try to bet other teams and I said this the other day like you can make a really compelling case for all four teams including Detroit to win the division and so it's kind of like well what when you do your handicapping process, what do you favor? And therefore, like, what do you like? And the price is going to be a big part of that. And the price on Green Bay is consensus, like, plus 350 right now.”
The Detroit Lions won the 2023 NFC North at 12-5; Green Bay finished 11-6 and did not win the division (ESPN final standings). (NFC North champion: Detroit Lions 12-5; Green Bay Packers 11-6)
“And then Miami is the other one. That's going to be my pick for this. So Super Bowl, kind of like a favorite Super Bowl bet right now.”
25-22 — The Kansas City Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers 25-22 in overtime to win Super Bowl LVIII; Miami did not reach the game (ESPN box score).
“And I'll explain why in a second. And so the market opens at one, one domestic was brave enough to open first. And, uh, and the one that takes a little better limits too, which is great. And they opened gunner at even money. And this is where I know I'm friends with a bunch of sickos because the market opens. And I mean, it's six, what are you doing at 640 on a Sunday night, right uh probably not updating your apps to make sure that al rookie of the year has opened right probably don't have the alerts set up for that one and i had i got a note from somebody friend of mine right like right it open like it i mean because i had checked like five minutes earlier it opens somebody sends me a note gunner even money is this a joke or something then i then like two minutes after that guy i get another dm from someone hey did you see gunner just and i'm like, yeah, yeah, yeah, I got it. Like I'm all over it. And then for basically like a long amount of time, it was, I'll speak for myself. Just like I, I viewed this as like a opportunity is I guess the wrong word. Like I know it takes a long time to get paid. Just, I think that was like the, one of the most criminal mispricing of even a small market, even a market you can't bet a lot of money into. I mean, like outrageous, like, I mean, really outrageous. And, uh, and so basically just like tried to bet as much money as humanly possible for a night into uh into it until the other places opened and got it all the way to 210 i think and now then everybody else opens like around 200 and that's where we are right now so just like a little bit of a story about last night”
Gunnar Henderson won the 2023 AL Rookie of the Year unanimously, receiving all 30 first-place votes (150 points) over Tanner Bibee (67) and Triston Casas (25) (ESPN). (Gunnar Henderson: 150 pts, 30/30 first-place votes)
“I have a bet in the account on this, not a huge bet but I have a bet on this My thought was hey like I kinda don think the number gonna be three come kickoff I think it probably be like Cowboys minus three I think that probably the right number in the game So I grabbed the Giants plus three and a half”
DAL 40, NYG 0 — Cowboys beat Giants 40-0 in NFL Week 1; Giants margin -40 busted +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“I bet pick because there no way it was going to be pick Like I had nothing to do with football or liking Denver. I bet pick because it was never going to be pick.”
LV 17, DEN 16 — Raiders beat Broncos 17-16 in Week 1; Denver lost outright, busting the Broncos pick'em (ESPN box score).
“I have like some Raiders three and a half just because I was like, I think I don't want to just be like naked on the Broncos at these numbers.”
LV 17, DEN 16 — Raiders beat Broncos 17-16 in Week 1, winning outright and covering Las Vegas +3.5 (ESPN box score).
“the my favorite bet uh so far for college football win totals this year is oregon states under uh which is eight and a half”
Oregon State went 8-4 in the 2023 regular season (excluding the Sun Bowl), cashing the under on 8.5 wins. (Oregon State 2023 regular season: 8-4 (12 games, before Sun Bowl))
“so my bets Hideki, but I think Russell Henley is fine too. I think Hideki is just not going to choke on the back nine as often.”
Lucas Glover won the 2023 Wyndham Championship at -20; Hideki Matsuyama missed the cut, so Matsuyama did not win. (Lucas Glover 1st (-20); Hideki Matsuyama missed the cut (145))
“so my bets Hideki, but I think Russell Henley is fine too. I think Hideki is just not going to choke on the back nine as often. Uh, Hideki, Lucas Glover, Alex Noren, Adam Svensson, Doug Gimm.”
Lucas Glover won the 2023 Wyndham Championship at -20 (260), his fifth PGA Tour title. (Lucas Glover: 1st (-20))
“so my bets Hideki, but I think Russell Henley is fine too. I think Hideki is just not going to choke on the back nine as often. Uh, Hideki, Lucas Glover, Alex Noren, Adam Svensson, Doug Gimm.”
Lucas Glover won the 2023 Wyndham Championship at -20; Alex Noren tied for 38th at -5, so Noren did not win. (Lucas Glover 1st (-20); Alex Noren T38 (-5))
“so my bets Hideki, but I think Russell Henley is fine too. I think Hideki is just not going to choke on the back nine as often. Uh, Hideki, Lucas Glover, Alex Noren, Adam Svensson, Doug Gimm.”
Lucas Glover won the 2023 Wyndham Championship at -20; Adam Svensson tied for 7th at -12, so Svensson did not win. (Lucas Glover 1st (-20); Adam Svensson T7 (-12))
“so my bets Hideki, but I think Russell Henley is fine too. I think Hideki is just not going to choke on the back nine as often. Uh, Hideki, Lucas Glover, Alex Noren, Adam Svensson, Doug Gimm.”
Lucas Glover won the 2023 Wyndham Championship at -20; Doug Ghim tied for 51st at -3, so Ghim did not win. (Lucas Glover 1st (-20); Doug Ghim T51 (-3))
“Florida plus seven and a half against Utah in week one. Like, I'm way in on the Gators in week one catching seven and a half. Way in.”
24-11 — No. 14 Utah beat Florida 24-11 in Salt Lake City; Florida's margin of -13 fell well short of the +7.5 (ESPN box score).
“Like I have in one of my accounts, I have Kansas City minus six and a half.”
DET 21, KC 20 — Lions beat Chiefs 21-20 in the Week 1 opener on Sept 7, 2023; Kansas City lost outright, so it did not cover -6.5 (ESPN box score).
“I think people who listen to the show know that I am pretty adamant not even that I don't like New Orleans just that I don't think that a number of nine and a half is a win total for them is like a good average outcome for the type of season that I think their coach Dennis Allen and their quarterback Derrick Car together are likely to have um they're a pretty good team and 10 as a win condition to win your win total bet doesn't strike me as like a no matter how easy the schedule is how easy the division is uh not a bet that I would be likely to make I have a lot of money on under nine and a half on them already”
New Orleans Saints finished the 2023 regular season 9-8, cashing the under 9.5 win total (Saints official site season recap). (New Orleans Saints: 9-8)